922
FXUS64 KMOB 121748
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1148 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL ALABAMA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVERHEAD, IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUR EAST
LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SWITCH BACK TO A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW, GIVING WAY TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S, WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NEARBY
HIGH, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY TO SEE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME WARRANTED.
ALTHOUGH FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS, SREF/HREF PROBABILITIES DO KEEP A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
TO STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
MOBILE BAY, THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS
POTENTIAL DOES MAKE SENSE, AS DEW POINTS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.
IF THIS POTENTIAL INCREASES ANY FURTHER, WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD
MENTION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST ON
SATURDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA ON SUNDAY, LIKELY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE, THERE SHOULD
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING AND WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, ANY RAIN THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WE QUICKLY DRY OUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO PLUMMET
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO TREND STRONGER WITH THIS FRONT, LIKELY DUE TO A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALOFT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. FACTORING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 9-15 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-10, WITH UPPER TEENS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS LOW, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WE TREND ANY COLDER,
THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WARNING.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH PRODUCT ULTIMATELY GETS ISSUED, RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS,
PETS, AND PIPES FROM THIS UPCOMING COLD WEATHER.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN IN THE 40S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. IN FACT, HIGHS BY THURSDAY MAY
WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S FOR SOME SPOTS. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, MAINLY IMPACTING THE MOB TAF SITE WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND
(NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR) IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
SATURDAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FOR TUESDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 53 71 50 / 10 10 20 40
PENSACOLA 69 57 70 55 / 0 10 20 30
DESTIN 69 59 70 56 / 0 10 20 30
EVERGREEN 70 48 71 45 / 0 10 20 50
WAYNESBORO 67 49 69 42 / 10 10 20 50
CAMDEN 65 46 68 41 / 0 10 20 50
CRESTVIEW 71 49 72 50 / 0 10 20 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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