410
FXUS64 KMOB 092348
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
108-110.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY-84 DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-EVENING, FOLLOWED BY
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S
FOR OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES, AND AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES.
/22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS IT TO PROGRESS WELL INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE LAND
BREEZE. ANY STRONGER PULSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A COMPLEX PATTERN EVOLUTION TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS, FORCING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND
WHERE POPS RISE TO THE 40- 60% RANGE. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2.25" IN
SPOTS). THIS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ON MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME.
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO AMPLE SURFACE HEATING SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
WITH NEARLY SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIKELY FAVOR MORE IN THE WAY
OF OVERRUNNING, WITH THE GREATEST HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
BOUNDARY SETS UP.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON
WHETHER A THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA OR SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD RETURN
US TO A TYPICAL ONSHORE SUMMERTIME FLOW PATTERN BY MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 108 TO 110 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OR
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 70S IN SOME SPOTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR.
AT THE BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL AREA BEACHES, CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY FOR THE FLORIDA BEACHES. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE MOVES
INLAND. ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE COULD CAUSE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR LEVEL. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING MAINLY WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 50
PENSACOLA 79 93 80 93 / 20 20 20 40
DESTIN 81 92 81 92 / 0 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 73 94 73 93 / 20 30 10 40
WAYNESBORO 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 10 50
CAMDEN 74 92 74 92 / 20 10 10 40
CRESTVIEW 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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