628
FXUS64 KMOB 182328
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE MARINE FOG BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. THE UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND IN THE PROCESS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BRING IMPROVING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTLY
FOG DEVELOPMENT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN TO COASTAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
WITH MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES INTO THE AREA, THEN POPS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ON FRIDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY SIMILAR VALUES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG LOOK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. MUCH COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S, AND IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AND IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TRENDING TO AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, LOCALLY HIGHER. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MUCH OF MONDAY AS WELL. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 79 65 80 / 10 10 50 60
PENSACOLA 64 76 67 78 / 20 20 60 70
DESTIN 61 72 64 73 / 30 20 60 70
EVERGREEN 60 81 64 80 / 20 10 60 60
WAYNESBORO 61 81 64 80 / 10 10 60 50
CAMDEN 61 80 64 78 / 10 10 70 60
CRESTVIEW 60 80 64 81 / 20 20 70 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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