314
FXUS64 KMOB 021834
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
134 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
- NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN, THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED
AND THE SUN IS OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS TREK EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TROUGHS
WAKE AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW ALL THE RAIN THAT WE RECEIVED THE LAST FEW
DAYS TO SOAK UP AND ASSIST WITH SLOWLY ALLEVIATING OUR ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE MAIN TALK WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR DAILY RECORD LOWS AND WILL
FEEL DELIGHTFUL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. CERTAINLY COULD BE WAY
WORSE THATS FOR SURE. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, GRADUAL RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM FINALLY ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THERE
IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS JET STREAK AND ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH REALLY DOES NOT FAVOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK
FOR OUR AREA. THE MAIN DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
LIKELY EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING US CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. SOME STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THERE WAY
DOWN BY THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER RIDGE IS. IF A STORM CAN SNEAK
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THEN A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY OCCUR. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT BUT GIVEN THE
GRADUAL TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ALONG OR POTENTIALLY
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LIKELY LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT. COUPLE THIS
WITH POOR INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS YOU CAN PAIN THE
PICTURE OF A RATHER LOW END SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND ANY STORMS THAT COULD ACHIEVE SOME
STRENGTH AND REMAIN SURFACE BASED WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPORADIC
DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE HOW THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP
BUT AS OF NOW IT IS LOOKING ON THE LOWER END. DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY, SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. AFTER SUNSET, THEY RELAX BELOW
10 KNOTS AND GENERALLY STAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO SUNDAY.
MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY THE END OF
THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE MARINE WATERS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 48 75 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 53 74 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 56 75 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 43 75 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 45 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 45 72 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 76 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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