565
FXUS64 KMOB 290212
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
912 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A FINAL UPDATE WAS MADE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FURTHER LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERCAST
DECK BASED BETWEEN 3-5KFT TO DEVELOP FIRST NEAR COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND THEN SPREADING INLAND
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH TIME THERE MAY BE A FEW
TEMPORARY BREAKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIKELY FILLING BACK IN SUNDAY EVENING.
ALSO LOW TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE ADVECTION
REGIME. /JLH
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR JACKSON, MS, SOUTH TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS, LA, JUST AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEHIND THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER THAT HAS EXISTED OVER
THE REGION TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW AROUND
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 900-800MB LAYER WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING ALLOWS FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME BROKEN. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SUNDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. /JLH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS AN TROUGH MOVES WEST. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 8-12 KTS.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERCAST DECKS
BETWEEN 3-4KFT THAT WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR
AT KMOB AND KBFM, BUT THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z AT KPNS AND KJKA. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE 10-12 KTS RANGE,
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, BUT REMAINS MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 56 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 77 60 70 63 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 78 60 70 62 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 74 54 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 70 51 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 72 51 70 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 57 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
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