894
FXUS64 KMOB 171123
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HEAT INDICES IN THE
100 TO 107 RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND 105 TO 111 NEXT WEEK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY
WOULD GENERALLY OCCUR OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO NEAR 107.
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. /73
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAKE WAY FOR AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC) MENTIONS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
LOW TURNS SLOWLY NORTHEASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW (20%)
CHANCE OF FORMATION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWATS INCHING UP FROM AROUND 1.8" THIS MORNING
TO AROUND 2" OVER THE WEEKEND. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF INTERSTATE-65 BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE WESTERN-MOST EXTENT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE TOMBIGBEE VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEEKEND CONVECTION, BUT
OCCASIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
VALUES APPROACH 2200 TO 2800J/KG LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND FROM
2800 TO 3800J/KG ON SUNDAY (MAINLY ALONG EAST OF I-65).
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY AND SATURDAY, WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT STRESS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 100 TO 107 RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND 105 TO 111 OR HIGHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT PRODUCTS POSSIBLE AS WELL
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 20 10
PENSACOLA 96 79 95 78 / 10 20 40 30
DESTIN 93 79 92 79 / 20 20 50 60
EVERGREEN 92 73 93 73 / 10 10 20 30
WAYNESBORO 95 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0
CAMDEN 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 95 75 94 74 / 10 20 50 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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