262
FXUS64 KMOB 061942
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
242 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF HAS A HIGH (NEAR
100 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING MIDWEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE
TRACK, THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THIS WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. A SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
EAST COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK
ALL EYES TURN TOWARD A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT DRIFTS EAST
THEN TURNS NORTH LATER THIS WEEK AS STEERING FLOW INCREASES
BETWEEN A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS WE ARE WATCHING FOR...THE FIRST BEING A
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM THAT IS STRONGER AND THE SECOND BEING A
SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BE WEAKER AS IT IS AFFECTED MORE BY
STRONGER SHEAR. AT THIS POINT EITHER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEAR CLOSE MONITORING. HOPEFULLY, ADDITIONAL DATA
FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET WILL AID MODEL CONSENSUS LATER
TODAY. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL ALSO BE IN THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
MORE HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK AS DEEP
GULF MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A DAY 5
SEVERE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM NWS MOBILE AND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
SURF WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 8 FEET CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE-
WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF.
/13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 69 84 68 84 / 10 10 0 0
DESTIN 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 61 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 61 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 59 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 63 83 61 83 / 0 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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