287
FXUS64 KMOB 272337
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 95-100 THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A MCV OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-10. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS,
WITH NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SITUATED NEAR THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF RAINFALL HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH
HIGHS NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S (AT BEST) FOR MOST
SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM THIS MORNING ARE WINDING DOWN AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, AN OVERNIGHT MCS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS LEFT
BEHIND A WEAK MCV, EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. ANY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES NEAR THIS MCV MAS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. IT SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH HEATING FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP GIVEN VERY MOIST PROFILES,
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.1 INCHES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS VERY HIGH
RAINFALL RATES, AS WE SAW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, SO
ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NOW REGARDING OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIMITING
INSTABILITY, SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY.
HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MCV SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER MARINE ZONES BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS, A FEW ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND
PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH. FURTHER INLAND,
A WEAK FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH MAY KEEP SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO 30% OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. FOR OTHER
AREAS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR WILL
REACH, SO MAINTAINING 40-60% POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, PLACING OUR AREA IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MAKE A RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 110 RANGE NEXT WEEK.
AT THE BEACHES, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A MCV OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ANY RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF AREA TAF SITES. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE
INLAND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO MID MVFR
LEVELS, ALONG WITH THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DIURNAL NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 88 71 90 / 50 60 20 40
PENSACOLA 74 86 74 87 / 60 70 50 50
DESTIN 75 85 75 87 / 70 70 60 50
EVERGREEN 70 90 69 91 / 50 50 20 40
WAYNESBORO 70 92 70 93 / 20 20 30 20
CAMDEN 71 91 70 91 / 30 40 30 30
CRESTVIEW 70 88 70 89 / 40 60 40 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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