916
FXUS64 KMOB 201144
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ZONES AND WATERS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINS THIS EVENING FOR WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA BEACHES.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM 10 AM
UNTIL 7 PM ON TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. VISIBILITIES OVERALL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR NO
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING NEEDED. SUBSIDENCE OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING
TD2/BERTHA ALONG WITH A DIP IN MOISTURE LEVELS INTO THE 1.8'-2.0'
WILL KEEP POPS LOW, LIMITING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WITH ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A
BIT HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO THE
108 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108. ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD, BUT STILL VERY
WARM. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS
IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK IS THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH, NOW
CALLED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (TD2). IT IS CURRENTLY NEARLY
STATIONARY, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTH TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
BEFORE TURNING MOSTLY WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TD2 IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE AND
THE INTENSITY IS WHAT WILL GUIDE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH OUR
AREA. IF THE CENTER SHIFTS CLOSER TO SHORE WE COULD EXPECT MORE
RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL AS INCREASED
SURF HEIGHTS.
OUR MAIN IMPACTS WITH TD2 WILL BE MARINE AND OUR COUNTIES JUST ALONG
THE COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, AND AN
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD BECOME A
CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH TIDE COMBINES WITH
PERSISTENT AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
GUIDANCE, FOR NOW SOME MINOR INUNDATION COULD OCCUR FOR TYPICAL
TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT PICKENS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES.
WPC HAS OUR COASTAL AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE COAST IN OUR AREA
AND THEREFORE MOST OF THE RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. GENERALLY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND OFF THE COAST. OUR MOISTURE CONTENT IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW PWATS INCREASING UP TO 2.2-2.4"
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM STARTING TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INTRODUCES ENHANCED RAIN RATES WITH EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES IN PLAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS, BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL REMAINS OFFSHORE.
AFTER TD2 DEPARTS TO THE WEST, WE ARE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS BRINGS
RAIN CHANCES TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
..BEACH FORECAST
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH FOR
OUR FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
AT THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SURF ABOVE 5 FEET BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND QUICKLY RISES THROUGH THE EVENING TO PEAK AT 10-12 FEET
WHICH LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AT 6AM/11Z, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGED FROM IFR
DUE TO FOG OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER DUE TO FOG TO VFR
ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS FOG MIXES OUT, GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH
WIND MAGNITUDES RISING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS TD2/BERTHA ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA, AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT GENERALLY EASTERLY ON TUESDAY
AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WEST. WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM PEAK AT 10
TO 15 FEET TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE. AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 75 94 77 / 40 20 50 30
PENSACOLA 94 77 91 79 / 40 30 70 60
DESTIN 90 77 89 80 / 60 40 80 70
EVERGREEN 94 73 91 75 / 20 10 50 20
WAYNESBORO 96 75 96 76 / 20 10 20 0
CAMDEN 94 74 91 76 / 20 10 30 10
CRESTVIEW 92 74 90 76 / 50 30 70 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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