843
FXUS64 KMOB 040611
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS
WEEKEND THEN TREND TO HIGHER VALUES OF 100-108 FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EXIT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEAD
TO A LARGE UPPER TROF FORMING OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE PROCESS LEAVES AN UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS LINGERING ROUGHLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
TENDS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THIS POSITION THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE A
BROAD UPPER TROF PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE THEN LOOK TO ALLOW FOR THE BROAD UPPER TROF TO
EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. THE SEA
BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TRENDING TO 2.0-2.25 INCHES. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHER POPS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT.
A SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY, AND IN THE PROCESS MAY BRING A WEAK, DIFFUSE SURFACE TROF
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA WHICH DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO AID IN RAIN CHANCES TRENDING A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY,
THEN RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPER BACK TO CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF AND LEAVES AN UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. PREDOMINATELY CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN TREND TO 100-108 FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE SOME WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY
DURING LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND AREA BAYS/SOUNDS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 75 93 75 / 20 0 30 10
PENSACOLA 95 79 93 80 / 10 0 20 20
DESTIN 93 80 91 81 / 10 10 10 30
EVERGREEN 95 73 94 73 / 20 10 50 20
WAYNESBORO 96 75 94 73 / 10 10 70 20
CAMDEN 93 75 91 73 / 10 10 60 20
CRESTVIEW 97 74 94 75 / 30 10 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page