377
FXUS64 KMOB 011741
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WE ARE NOW SEEING
VISIBILITIES STARTING TO FALL ALONG WITH NEAR ZERO DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS, MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST AND ALSO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THIS WILL
ALSO INCLUDE AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL
MARINE WATERS. THIS FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT MAY PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY
AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RELATIVELY COOL AND WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE FOR LONGER
AS COMPARED TO NEARBY LAND AREAS WHERE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
INCREASE MIXING SOONER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT BUILD TO
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH
EXPECTED BUILDING HEIGHTS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND
AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN
INFLUENCE FROM THE COOLER NEARBY WATERS. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WILL SUPPORT LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT FOG AS SIMILAR AND FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN AND RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS INCREASED AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SWELL AND SURF. SPRING
TIDE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS AND SWELL
SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGH THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS BY TUESDAY WHICH MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES, VISITORS AND RESIDENTS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER AS DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SURF HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING SURF
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WE
WILL ENHANCE RIP CURRENT HAZARD MESSAGING IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
AS EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS. DESPITE
THE INCREASED MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AS THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON OVER THE AREA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS THIS AREA IS GLANCED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER
RIDGE ALTHOUGH WEAKENED SHOULD KEEP STORM CHANCES LOWER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF WARM
WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO GRADUALLY
WARM AS WELL. WITH THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEA FOG POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH WITH THE
WARMING WATERS AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR SEA
FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. /JLH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
NO IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL BRING
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY LATE IN THE NIGHT TONIGHT POSSIBLY TO LIFR
CATEGORIES PRIMARILY OVER MOB/BFM TERMINALS WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
IS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BY AND AFTER 02.09Z FOR 1/2SM. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 50 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 54 72 58 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 71 56 70 58 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 79 48 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 79 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 48 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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