002
FXUS64 KMOB 211959
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
259 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE
ALONG AND WEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL QUICKLY PASS NEAR/OVER THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD,
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS GENERALLY RANGING AROUND
1.7-2.0 INCHES) AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING EACH DAY DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, AND BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 (DUE TO
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET).
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT HIGHER ON SHEAR
VALUES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS A MORE STOUT
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD AND A 30-40KT LLJ DEVELOPS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FIRE BY OR A LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK (WHEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF
THE LLJ AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR), THERE MAY BE A BRIEF, YET
CONDITIONAL, WINDOW WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT
ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE MAY BE MINI-SPINNY IN NATURE DUE TO WEAK STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW, MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS, AND CURVED LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, AND THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SPIN-
UPS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE 6AM-12PM TIMEFRAME. THE LLJ SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HELPING TO
REDUCE THE TORNADO RISK THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF TOMORROW MORNING'S POTENTIAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER LESSENS AS SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN. WITH LIMITED SHEAR,
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. THAT BEING SAID, AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL, AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE, MAY LEAD TO STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IF A
FEW STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND HUMID, WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND
THE LOW TO MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF
I-65 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE,
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION LOWER TO
IFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING, THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS DEVELOPS FRIDAY
MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 83 72 86 / 70 80 30 70
PENSACOLA 74 83 74 85 / 40 80 30 60
DESTIN 75 83 74 84 / 20 50 30 30
EVERGREEN 71 84 70 86 / 30 80 40 70
WAYNESBORO 70 82 69 86 / 60 90 60 80
CAMDEN 69 82 70 85 / 50 90 40 70
CRESTVIEW 71 85 71 87 / 20 50 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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