898
FXUS64 KMOB 051159
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A LARGE, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF EVOLVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
DOWN TO THE BAJA AREA. THE UPPER TROF BECOMES SITUATED MOSTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY, AND IN THE
PROCESS BROADENS AND TAKES ON A MORE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGING PATTERN, A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR FAR
NORTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES WITH WHEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT CURRENTLY THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TRENDING TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY CHANCE TO GOOD
CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-65 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR POPS
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN TREND TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW, 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60
KNOTS ARE INDICATED ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF I-65. ON THURSDAY,
MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS AROUND 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY WEST OF I-65 FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANTICIPATE THAT AT A SIMILAR RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN PLAYS OUT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
BECOME ORIENTED CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR FRIDAY WHILE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR POPS FOR FRIDAY,
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROF
EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES ON SUNDAY THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND IN THE PROCESS BRINGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE
GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY, THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER RISK FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES, THEN ANTICIPATE A MODERATE RISK
FOR FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 66 84 70 / 0 0 20 30
PENSACOLA 78 69 82 73 / 0 0 10 10
DESTIN 77 69 80 72 / 0 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 83 61 88 67 / 0 0 20 40
WAYNESBORO 83 63 85 67 / 10 0 60 70
CAMDEN 82 62 85 67 / 0 10 40 70
CRESTVIEW 81 61 86 67 / 0 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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