258
FXUS64 KMOB 301231
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 648 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108-112
DEGREES POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
FOR ALL AREA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SMALL POPS THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. MADE OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MEANS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST
DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES PAST ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 108-112 EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.1-2.2
INCHES WILL BE ORIENTED NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST.
AFTERNOON HEATING AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, WHERE POPS RANGE FROM 60-80%. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
ATTENTION THE TURNS TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SENDING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH REFS
GUIDANCE DEPICTING PWATS EXCEEDING 2.4 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
HOVERING NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SLOW MOVING, TRAINING, OR BACKBUILDING CELLS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RAIN CHANCES
ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY, HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL
POSITION OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW OR STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL EACH DAY SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
FRIDAY, DECREASING TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST SPOTS BY SUNDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO WASH OUT AS THE
REMNANT UPPER TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. THIS SHOULD
TRANSITION THE REGION BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY ALONG NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK ALONG THE ALABAMA BEACHES, BECOMING
A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREA BEACHES ON FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY FOR THE FLORIDA BEACHES AND
EXPAND TO ALL AREA BEACHES BY SUNDAY. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TODAY AND AFFECT
THE TAF SITES MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 75 92 75 / 70 50 80 50
PENSACOLA 95 79 91 77 / 60 50 80 70
DESTIN 90 80 90 78 / 60 40 80 70
EVERGREEN 94 73 92 72 / 70 40 70 50
WAYNESBORO 95 74 93 74 / 70 40 80 40
CAMDEN 94 74 91 73 / 50 40 60 50
CRESTVIEW 96 75 93 74 / 80 50 80 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>053-059-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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