976
FXUS64 KMOB 111045
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-107
THIS WEEKEND.
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INCREASES TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST), WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HOT
SPOTS). I DID BUMP DOWN THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY AT OR A BIT BELOW
THE FORECAST. ALSO, THERE IS A FEW LOCALITIES WITH PATCHY FOG,
BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT NOTICED.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM EITHER DAY ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S TODAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70'S. SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE THIS
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING WEAKENS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT OVERALL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
MORNING TEMPERATURES OFFER NO RELIEF AS MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S BECOME
COMMON TO START THE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE START TO TAKE SHAPE AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND
UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. THERE IS ALREADY A PRETTY DECENT
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE DETAILS ON THINGS, BUT OVERALL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND ANY SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WHILE THE MORNING MAY START OFF AS A LOW RISK,
THE RISK GRADUALLY RAMPS UP TO A MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
IT'S LIKELY FOR THE RISK TO INCREASE TO A HIGH SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST. LOCAL DROPS IN VISBYS TO LOW END MVFR DUE TO FOG
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A DIURNAL PATTERN DEVELOPS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AT NIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS IN
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER
THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 73 93 75 / 10 0 20 0
PENSACOLA 89 76 91 77 / 10 0 10 0
DESTIN 88 77 89 78 / 10 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 94 72 94 75 / 20 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 94 73 94 75 / 10 0 10 10
CAMDEN 92 73 93 75 / 10 0 0 20
CRESTVIEW 93 72 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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