866
FXUS64 KMOB 180030
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF
THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A GEE WHIZ
SIGHTING OF A SLEET PELLET OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AFTER SOME
VIRGA EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST MID LEVELS OVER TOP VERY DRY LOW LEVELS,
WITH WETBULB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB
POTENTIALLY BEING JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FALLING PRECIP INTO
THAT COOL LAYER TO ALLOW FOR WATER DROPLETS TO FREEZE PRIOR TO
REACHING THE SURFACE. ANY FALLING SLEET PELLETS WILL BE QUICK TO
MELT GIVEN WARM LOW LEVEL TEMPS, SO IF YOU'RE LUCKY YOU MIGHT SEE
A COUPLE SLEET PELLETS WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE
OVERHEAD INTO EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO THE COLUMN MOISTENING UP.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS ALL EYES TURN
TOWARDS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED THE USUAL CADENCE
WE SEE WITH OVERRUNNING SYSTEMS THE PAST FEW DAYS, GOING FROM
HAVING PRECIP OVER THE AREA FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ON
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE 4 TO 5 DAYS AGO, THEN TO
SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES 3 DAYS OUT, TO
NOW FEATURING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO MOST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
SOMETHING WE SEE ACROSS THE BOARD IN NEARLY ALL OVERRUNNING AND
WARM ADVECTION SETUPS WHERE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH DEPICTING THE
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND LIKEWISE THE
NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF WARM, MOIST AIR. WITH THAT SAID, I
ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE
OVERALL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. BUT WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE
SNOW POTENTIAL?
WELL, WITH WARMER AND MOISTER AIR BEING PUSHED IN EARLIER AND
FURTHER INLAND THAT MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE COOL, DRY AIR
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE GIVEN
WE WON'T HAVE THE COLD, DRY THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR A
LARGE CHUNK OF THE EVENT. INSTEAD WHAT WE END UP WITH IS A COLD
RAIN TO START AND PERHAPS SOME GEE WHIZ SLEET PELLETS (SEE FIRST
PARAGRAPH), WITH OUR ONLY HOPE OF ANY MEANINGFUL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COMING FROM EITHER 1) THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING
IN QUICKER, BUT CUTTING INTO TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OR
2) DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES THAT BARELY GET OUR THERMAL PROFILE
TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. IF OPTION 1
HAPPENS, WE MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW/RAIN MIX OR ALL SNOW QUICKER
AND FURTHER NORTHWEST, BUT THE DRY AIR WOULD BE QUICKER TO EAT
AWAY AT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IF OPTION 2 HAPPENS, WE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A FEW HOURS, PERHAPS EVEN
ALL SNOW NEAR THE VERY END OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO, BUT IT ENDS UP BEING THIS WET MESS WITH VERY LOW SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH TO ONLY ELEVATED SURFACES,
AND EVEN THAT MAY BE GENEROUS CONSIDERING MOST THE AREA STAYS
ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE EVENT AND MOST SURFACES WILL BE PRETTY
WET PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER, SIMILARLY CUTTING INTO ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION. AS OF RIGHT NOW OPTION 2 APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
PROBABLE TO HAPPEN, WITH ANY ACCUMULATION CHANCES OF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH ON ELEVATED SURFACES FOCUSED EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
IN OUR SOUTH- CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE A NON-IMPACTFUL EVENT FOR THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
SO COULD WE SEE A SCENARIO PLAY OUT THAT BRINGS A MORE MEANINGFUL
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS? MAYBE, BUT IT'S PRETTY UNLIKELY
AT THIS POINT. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN SEEING GREATER THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE PRETTY LOW, AROUND 20 TO
30% AT THIS TIME, WITH EVEN LOWER PROBABILITIES LOOKING AT HALF
INCH AND ONE INCH THRESHOLDS. IT'S A BIT HARD TO GET A SETUP LIKE
THIS TO WORK OUT WHEN THE COLD AIR IS SEEMINGLY CHASING THE
PRECIPITATION. IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO GET SOMETHING APPRECIABLE
THROUGH DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES, PARTICULARLY IF THE TRANSITION
PROCESS IS QUICK, BUT OUR MAIN PROBLEM IS LONGEVITY OF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT CRASHES THROUGH AND HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WE'LL HAVE A WINDOW
FOR DECENT 700MB FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR DRIVING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION RATES AND LIKEWISE A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL AL COUNTIES EAST OF
I-65. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AND IN OPTION
2 IT'LL BE PRETTY HARD TO GET RATES THAT OVERCOME THE THERMAL
PROBLEMS IN TIME BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. BEST CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 3AM TO 7AM RANGE, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING FLURRIES THROUGH 9AM EAST OF I-65. AT
THIS TIME, GIVEN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY APPRECIABLE
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES WITH LITTLE TO NO ANTICIPATED IMPACTS,
WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
ONCE THIS CLEARS OUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FAIRLY QUICK, ALTHOUGH OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40'S. THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING WILL DRY
EVERYTHING OUT WITH NO EXPECTATIONS FOR BLACK ICE CONCERNS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30
DEGREE RANGE. MONDAY WE THAW OUT A BIT MORE AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50'S, BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WILL BRING
BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHEN OUR BEST CHANCE AT REACHING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA EXISTS AS MORNING WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 18 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS, WE FOLLOW A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL,
EVENTUALLY REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY FRIDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND A POTENTIAL BRIEF TRANSITION TO RAIN
SNOW MIX COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EAST OF I-65. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR AND RAIN WILL END BY EARLY MORNING WITH A PERSISTENT
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL TODAY, BECOMING STRONG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MARINE WATERS, LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO GALE FORCE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE GULF WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS FOR MONDAY THEN STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 31 48 27 57 / 40 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 35 49 31 56 / 80 20 0 0
DESTIN 37 47 34 55 / 90 40 0 0
EVERGREEN 32 46 25 55 / 50 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 26 42 25 55 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN 28 43 25 53 / 30 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 34 47 23 56 / 80 30 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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