710
FXUS64 KMOB 212348
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
548 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH-BASED CIRRUS STREAM OVER THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
/22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 237 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
21.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT, WEST TO EAST ZONAL
FLOW AT HIGH ALTITUDES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US HAS MIGRATED
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS (1040-1042MB) CENTERED OVER MO. THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF EXPANSIVE CLOUDS OVER TX AND THIS
MOISTURE, CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES, WILL LIKELY
BRING HIGHER BASED CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A
MID-UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS
EASTWARD OVER TEXAS LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHEAST TX SATURDAY, EXPANDING INTO LOUISIANA
SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR LOCAL AREA, THE NEAR TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN
RAIN-FREE, BUT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR-STEP TO OUR WEST BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR, NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DIP DOWN INTO
THE MID 20'S TO LOWER 30'S. 37 TO 42 ALONG THE BEACHES. SATURDAY,
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50'S INTERIOR TO AROUND 60
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT MODERATE 3 TO 6 DEGREES
WARMER FROM TONIGHT'S LOWS. /10
LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING GENERALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON MONDAY. A LARGE UPPER TROF EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AMPLIFIES
WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
SOMEWHAT BRIEF RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. /29
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
PRIMARILY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY
TRACKS EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
WITH THIS SYSTEM'S PASSAGE TO OUR SOUTH, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
A BUILD IN SEAS AND SWELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 32 60 37 56 41 68 45 74 / 0 0 10 40 40 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 38 60 41 58 46 66 48 72 / 0 0 0 30 40 10 0 0
DESTIN 41 60 43 60 47 66 50 70 / 0 0 0 20 40 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 27 59 30 59 37 68 40 75 / 0 0 0 20 30 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 26 55 29 53 35 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 30 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN 25 55 27 56 34 65 39 73 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 29 61 33 61 40 68 40 75 / 0 0 0 20 40 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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