048
FXUS64 KMOB 241121
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
621 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS ROLLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. THE RISK
INCREASES TO HIGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
MCV ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING MCS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY UNWIND.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED, BUT THERE REMAINS THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS THE LINE CONTINUES EAST. AMPLE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF STORMS CAN
RE-INVIGORATE, ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING MCV WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE A
GRADUAL TAPERING OF THE RISK WITH TIME THIS MORNING. ANY THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME TO AT LEAST A
TEMPORARY END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV THIS
MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALREADY WATERLOGGED AREAS. ANY TRAINING
OF STORMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN MOST
PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THERE'S NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON RADAR ACROSS OUR AREA AS OF 06Z,
HOWEVER, OUR EYES ARE ON THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST THAT
IS ROLLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THIS COMPLEX VERY WELL AS MANY OF
THE MODELS SHOW THE COMPLEX FALLING APART OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND MAKE IT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA, AS THERE ARE NO
ENVIRONMENTAL CUES THAT INDICATE THAT THIS BATCH OF STORMS WILL
FALL APART. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL, EVEN AS THE STORMS SKIRT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PARISHES IN LOUISIANA. BASED ON THE
CURRENT TRAJECTORY, IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE INLAND,
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REACH OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
BETWEEN 08-09Z AND OUR COASTAL ALABAMA COUNTIES BY 09-10Z. BASED
ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING UPSTREAM, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND MARINE
WARNINGS AS THIS COMPLEX ROLLS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. WE
HAVE LESS OF A CONCERN WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE COMPLEX, HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN CENTRAL
MOBILE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL BE A PROBLEM GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS FROM STORMS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER 2.0 INCHES AT
TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY DROPPING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, WE CURRENTLY
HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST (MAINLY WEST
OF I-65) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEK, BUT IN
REALITY, WE COULD SEE THOSE AMOUNTS FALL IN A DAY IF STORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE RECENT HREF LOCALIZED
PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN (LPMM) SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF 7-10 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES WITH 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS MOBILE COUNTY ON MONDAY ALONE, WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FROM A FLOODING STANDPOINT (TO SAY THE LEAST). GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ON FRIDAY IN CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE VERY SATURATED
SOILS, THAT AREA IN PARTICULAR WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE COMING DAYS.
BEACH FORECAST - RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS MODERATE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY, BUT QUICKLY INCREASES TO A HIGH RISK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AS STORMS
WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY EXPECTED UNDER ANY STORMS. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 71 82 72 / 90 70 90 70
PENSACOLA 85 74 82 74 / 50 60 90 70
DESTIN 85 74 83 75 / 40 30 80 70
EVERGREEN 86 70 82 70 / 80 60 90 50
WAYNESBORO 80 69 80 69 / 90 60 100 60
CAMDEN 83 68 80 69 / 80 50 90 60
CRESTVIEW 89 71 84 71 / 60 40 90 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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