522
FXUS64 KMOB 231801
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
BURNING CONDITIONS TODAY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN ALONG THE BEACHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND CREATE DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 20S INLAND
TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST, AND WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25
OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SO HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. A
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. A
LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE MOVES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON THURSDAY. THIS NEXT UPPER
TROF EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN HAVE GONE WITH POPS INCREASING TO
CHANCE TO LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD
LINGER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION INTO SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF MODEST SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND A RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN MILD DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGH RISK FOLLOWING FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT, THEN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THROUGH 9
PM THIS EVENING WHICH THEN TAPERS OFF OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY ON
THURSDAY. /29
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE AREA DUE
TO BREEZY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 20-25%. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 27 58 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 31 56 48 71 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 32 57 48 69 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 24 58 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 25 58 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 23 56 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 25 57 39 73 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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