336
FXUS64 KMOB 301750
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, WITH VERY
LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
LEVELS IN OUR BAYS AND SOUNDS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY, USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. WITH MOISTURE
RETURN NEGLIGIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFFSHORE AND LIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FRIDAY DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR SATURDAY WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO THE 30S SATURDAY, WITH WIND
CHILLS CREEPING INTO THE 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE
EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH TO A WARNING. WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER OUR OPEN GULF WATERS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL ZONES FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THESE
STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT NEAR COASTAL AREAS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
SETTLE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE COMING WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SHIFTING ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO
ONSHORE BY TUESDAY. A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS BY MID WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DROPPING BELOW BEHIND.
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL LIMIT ANY SWELL,
KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD UPPER-END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING ACCOMPANYING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 32 KNOTS MID
EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO MODERATE TO STRONG FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES. A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES SATURDAY, KEEPING
OFFSHORE FLOW STRONG TO VERY STRONG INTO SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR OPEN GULF WATERS AND MOBILE BAY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR
PROTECTED WATERS THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK, EASING WINDS OVER AREA
WATERS INTO MONDAY, THEN SHIFTING THEM TO ONSHORE IN THE COMING
WEEK. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 26 36 19 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 29 36 22 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 61 30 38 23 / 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 57 22 33 16 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 52 19 32 17 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 53 19 31 16 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 62 25 35 16 / 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>264.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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