420
FXUS64 KMOB 300527
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1127 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT,
WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TO
GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER
LEVELS IN OUR BAYS AND SOUNDS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY, USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. WITH MOISTURE RETURN
NEGLIGIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND LIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR SATURDAY WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE 30S SATURDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS CREEPING INTO THE 20S
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPGRADED THE EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH TO A WARNING. WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR OPEN GULF WATERS, HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THESE STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SETTLE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE COMING WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SHIFTING ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO
ONSHORE BY TUESDAY. A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS BY MID WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, DROPPING BELOW BEHIND.
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL LIMIT ANY SWELL,
KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5
KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO MODERATE TO STRONG FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES. A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES SATURDAY, KEEPING
OFFSHORE FLOW STRONG TO VERY STRONG INTO SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR OPEN GULF WATERS AND MOBILE BAY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PROTECTED
WATERS THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AREA WATERS LATE
SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK, EASING WINDS OVER AREA WATERS INTO
MONDAY, THEN SHIFTING THEM TO ONSHORE IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 38 59 26 36 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 43 62 29 36 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 45 61 30 38 / 10 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 33 57 22 33 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 32 52 19 32 / 0 10 0 0
CAMDEN 31 53 19 31 / 0 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 35 62 25 35 / 0 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ265-
266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ202-
204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ633>636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-
670-675.
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