145
FXUS64 KMOB 140550
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MARINE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
NEARLY IDENTICAL UPPER TROUGHS WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BOTH WILL FEATURE A 150 KNOT
UPPER JET DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG OR
PERHAPS STRONGER UPPER JET EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH ITS STRONGEST AND
BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE SECOND
REACHING ITS STRONGEST, BECOMING MEDIUM AMPLIFIED, AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL FEATURE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
MIDWEEK, SENDING AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP
THROUGH OUR AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-
EVENING. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL FEATURE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SENDING AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TOWARD OUR
REGION AND PASS THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR REGION AND DEEPENS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SO
WE ARE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, THERE IS A
SMALL POTENTIAL OF A FEW FLURRIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF THE TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 50S
AND LOWER 60S BEFORE WE ENTER INTO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY RANGING FROM 44-49 DEGREES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S INLAND, WITH LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER A QUICK MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRIEFLY BECOMING MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FLORIDA BEACHES. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS BY 09Z.
WE COULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FALL TO MVFR LEVELS WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY, THE COASTAL
WATERS OUT 20 NM UNTIL NOON, AND FROM 20 TO 60 NM UNTIL 6 PM.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, MARINERS OPERATING SMALL CRAFT
ON THE GULF SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW. BEHIND THE FRONT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
BECOMING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 41 60 34 / 0 40 20 10
PENSACOLA 59 45 61 37 / 10 40 30 20
DESTIN 58 47 61 39 / 0 40 30 20
EVERGREEN 61 39 59 32 / 0 40 20 20
WAYNESBORO 58 40 57 29 / 0 40 20 10
CAMDEN 58 39 56 30 / 0 40 30 20
CRESTVIEW 61 37 61 35 / 0 40 30 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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