934
FXUS64 KMOB 210538
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1138 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THE PRIMARY FORECAST HEADACHE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF DENSE
MARINE FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING.
IT'S POSSIBLE THIS SPREADS IN AREAL COVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING SOME OF THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON
THE COVERAGE AND DENSITY PRECLUDES ISSUING ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES AT
THIS TIME. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, WARM, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH A PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THIS IS WHERE INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1,500 TO 2,000J/KG OVERLAPS
WITH 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SUBTLE FORCING. THE MAIN
LIMITER OVERALL REMAINS THE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING THE
THREAT MARGINAL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IT TURNS VERY COLD, A STARK CONTRAST TO
THE ALL TIME RECORD WARM DAY FOR FEBRUARY WE JUST HAD. HIGHS
PLUMMET INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S BY MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20'S AND LOWER 30'S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
20'S AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT. WE QUICKLY MODULATE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70'S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AND LOWS INTO THE 50'S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON RIP CURRENT REPORTS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE
EXPECTATION FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT HAVE OPTED TO GO FORTH WITH UPGRADING THE MODERATE RISK TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. RIP CURRENTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SUNDAY AND A LOW RISK FOLLOWING FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH LIFR CEILINGS EVIDENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, HOWEVER UNDERNEATH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS CEILING AND
VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED BY SEVERAL FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MVFR TO
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DENSE
MARINE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TO
NIGHT, WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE AFTERWARDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY NEEDING EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 66 79 44 / 40 20 60 70
PENSACOLA 78 67 77 47 / 60 30 50 80
DESTIN 74 64 73 49 / 70 50 50 90
EVERGREEN 81 64 79 42 / 50 40 80 70
WAYNESBORO 75 62 76 39 / 40 50 70 50
CAMDEN 76 61 74 40 / 50 60 70 60
CRESTVIEW 82 65 80 45 / 60 40 60 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ631-632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ633>636.
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