970
FXUS64 KMOB 221301
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
801 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 800 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
108 TO 112 RANGE.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL, EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING, AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HOT AND GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL HELP LOWER
SURFACE DEW POINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
HOWEVER, A FEW LOCALIZED HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108-110 CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LESS MIXING OCCURS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTER OF THE TWO DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.
DRIER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS WEEKEND, WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LOWER.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, SO ANY SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR CONFLUENCE BANDS COULD STILL
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE ALOFT, DCAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH (AROUND 1500
J/KG), SO ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO INITIATE WOULD CARRY THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MICROBURST WINDS. THAT SAID, POPS REMAIN CAPPED
AT AROUND 10-20%. IT MAY ALSO BE WORTH NOTING, SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST
A DECAYING MCS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD COULD ENCROACH ON OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO WARRANT MORE THAN 20% POPS.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE RETURNS BY MONDAY, WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THURSDAY AS ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS REACH
AROUND 2.2 INCHES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WHILE THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD BRING PERIODIC ROUNDS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FIRST
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, INTRODUCING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
THE NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD OR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES, AMPLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 100-107 RANGE.
AT THE BEACHES, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 93 77 95 78 / 20 10 20 10
DESTIN 90 79 94 80 / 20 0 20 10
EVERGREEN 97 71 98 71 / 10 0 10 0
WAYNESBORO 98 73 99 72 / 0 20 10 10
CAMDEN 96 72 96 71 / 0 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 95 72 98 72 / 20 0 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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