075
FXUS64 KMOB 251120
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN THIS COMING
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST, DEFLECTING ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A MODERATE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SET OF
SHORTWAVES PASSING THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND
BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE COMING SURFACE FRONT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN MODEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK,
AVERAGING 1.1"-1.3" OVER AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE STILL WEAK COMBINED WITH A BIT OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THE REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RAIN FREE, WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSING ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING WITH THE COMING FRONT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMING FRONT WILL DROP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP TO THE AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN
THE COMING WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME RISE/FALL/RISE,
RISING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, LOW TEMPERATURES SLOW RISE INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK BUT SEMI-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
LOW. POST FROPA, MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE OFFSHORE
FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, BRINGING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY SUNDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR TO
LIFR AS PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOP. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TODAY DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MM/25
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VERY DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. 20FT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY
RFWS. THE WILD CARD IS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, AND
MOVING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISSUES OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 79 60 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 61 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 61 74 63 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 79 55 85 57 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 59 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 57 82 58 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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