014
FXUS64 KMOB 211232
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
732 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 730 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
108 TO 112 RANGE.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL, EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING, AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /13
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH,
SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TODAY, WHILE A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWATS
AROUND 2-2.2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FEATURING SBCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG, VERY STEEP
LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG
WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS AND INTENSE DOWNBURSTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
BRIEFLY INTENSE RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS
ALSO LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
COULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE 2PM-8PM
TIMEFRAME. GREATEST COVERAGE (50-60% POPS) APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY LINING UP
WHERE OUTFLOWS COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY.
FASTER STORM MOTIONS SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT, THOUGH BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH ANY
STORMS. PRIOR TO CONVECTION, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 108-
111 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES (10-20% POPS AT
BEST) AND A BIT LESS HUMIDITY. DESPITE LOWER COVERAGE, ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WHILE SOMEWHAT
LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 RANGE. HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGHER.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A FEW ACTIVE DAYS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION
OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY HOT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT
INDICES MOST LIKELY IN THE 100-107 RANGE. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 74 96 74 / 50 40 20 0
PENSACOLA 92 77 94 77 / 40 30 20 0
DESTIN 90 78 92 80 / 20 30 20 0
EVERGREEN 96 71 97 70 / 60 30 10 0
WAYNESBORO 97 72 99 71 / 50 20 10 10
CAMDEN 95 72 96 71 / 40 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 94 72 96 71 / 50 40 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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