143
FXUS64 KMOB 130005
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
605 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL ALABAMA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
OUR BRIEF BUT BITTER PATTERN CHANGE IS LURKING AROUND THE CORNER
BUT FIRST WE HAVE SOME FOG TO DEAL WITH. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HAS SLOWLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. TWO UPPER TROUGHS, THE FIRST OVER
CANADA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A VERY WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BROADER LONGWAVE PATTERN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TO START, VERY
SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEGUN AS WINDS HAVE POM MORE
SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. THIS HAS LED TO A
GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS NOW SNEAKING INTO THE
MID 50S. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT
AROUND THE LOW 60S MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN HOW DENSE AND IF FOG WILL
BE ABLE TO SETTLE WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY KEEPING US FROM ISSUING ANY FOG PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER, NBM/HREF/SREF PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER HIGH FOR SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND THUS WE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BOTH UPPER TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DRASTIC CHANGE AS
COLD ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE GATES OF THE ARCTIC OPEN. LOOKING AT NBM
PROBABILITIES AND WE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BEING THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR. PROBABILITIES OF AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
20 DEGREES ARE FLOATING AROUND 50-70 PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 AND PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 25 DEGREES ABOVE 80%
ALMOST TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
GETTING COLDER AND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE
TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES, IT IS
PROBABLY A PRETTY SAFE BET WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WE WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. BOTH THE AIR
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WOULD WARRANT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT THE LEAST AND WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS FOR WIND CHILLS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS COOLDOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THINGS WILL
QUICKLY FLIP NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S
BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME WELL AFTER NEXT
WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS TO IFR OR LOWER. BEST PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIALLY
DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE/LIFT A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG COASTAL
ALABAMA, WHERE SEA FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS TONIGHT. WINDS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FOR TUESDAY. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 54 71 51 57 / 10 30 40 20
PENSACOLA 57 71 56 61 / 10 20 40 20
DESTIN 58 70 57 63 / 10 20 30 20
EVERGREEN 49 71 47 55 / 10 30 60 20
WAYNESBORO 50 68 44 50 / 10 30 70 10
CAMDEN 47 66 43 49 / 10 20 60 10
CRESTVIEW 50 72 52 59 / 10 20 40 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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