425
FXUS64 KMOB 290627
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
127 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND TO AREA WATERS, CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO SHIFTS WEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE CONUS. THIS SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW MORE OF
THE IMPULSES TO PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP TO EASE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
HELPING TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED
CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT STALLS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT (SBCAPES IN
THE 2500-3000J/KG RANGE) FOR STRONG STORMS TO FORM. WIND SHEAR IS
ENOUGH (BULK AND EBWD SHEAR AROUND 45KTS), THOUGH LIMITED IN THE
LOWEST 1-2KM AND PRESENTING A LINEAR PROFILE, FOR SOME ORGANIZATION
TO BE POSSIBLE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE ADVERTISED AROUND 7C IN THE GUIDANCE, MEANING HAIL IS
POSSIBLE. ALSO, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE NOSE OF A MODEST 80KT
UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, HELPING WITH STORM STRENGTH. ALL
INGREDIENTS ARE GOOD ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS, THOUGH A BRIEF SPINUP IS
POSSIBLE. HELPING TO TEMPER THE SEVERE RISK, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE STRONGER WINDS (50KTS AND UP) ARE ABOVE 500MB, SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TALLER STORMS. ALSO, WITH A PRETTY SOUPY SOUNDING (PRECIPITABLE
H20 VALUES OF 1.7"-1.9"), LIMITED TO NO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PRESENT TO ENTRAIN INTO ANY DOWNDRAFTS AND HELP WITH THE DAMAGING
WINDS, THOUGH IT WILL HELP FOR THESE STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS.
LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DECREASES, THOUGH ENOUGH IS AVAILABLE ABOVE FOR
RUMBLERS TO MIX IN. THE REST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DROP, SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. STILL,
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SATURDAY, WHEN
A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF RAIN AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY DROP INTO THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TONIGHT
DROP INTO THE AROUND 50 TO UPPER 50S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY), AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
NORTH FROM MEXICO TO OVER THE PLAINS, BRINGING A RETURN OF
TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, LOW TO MID 80S, BUT
TUESDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH THE RISK BUMPS MODERATE LEVELS
TODAY. A MODERATE RISK, MAYBE HIGH RISK RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME, WITH LOW-
END MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS OR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INLAND AND
10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE VARIABLE, THEN TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.
WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY, THEN RETURN TO ONSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS SATURDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 79 60 75 / 60 50 40 60
PENSACOLA 68 80 65 77 / 50 50 30 50
DESTIN 69 79 65 77 / 50 50 40 40
EVERGREEN 62 78 55 73 / 80 50 30 50
WAYNESBORO 61 74 55 67 / 80 50 40 70
CAMDEN 60 74 54 66 / 80 50 30 60
CRESTVIEW 63 81 59 80 / 60 60 30 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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