160
FXUS64 KMOB 161938
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
138 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR ALL AREA BEACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
OUR SHOT OF COLD AIR IS OVER AS WE HAVE QUICKLY RETURNED TO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. A PAIR OF UPPER
TROUGHS, ONE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER
CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST TROUGH TO
ARRIVE WILL BE THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. AS THIS
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
NORTHWARD. EXPECT A CONTINUED WARMUP THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY
THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THESE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH THE COASTLINE AS INSTABILITY
MIGHT CREEP UP TO THE COAST AND GIVEN THE NORMAL THEME OF NEVER
TRUST A BOUNDARY, A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY SNEAK ITS WAY
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WHILE THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WOULD LIKELY NOT
SUPPORT INSTABILITY MAKING IT ONSHORE, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY.
THE SECOND WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A STORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
BY THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND
THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. A FEW WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES COULD
BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE
AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL BE. THE BIG STICKING POINT
WILL BE THE WARMUP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 5 KNOTS TODAY TURN NORTHEAST AROUND
5 KNOTS TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 44 64 54 69 / 0 20 50 80
PENSACOLA 48 65 58 68 / 0 20 50 80
DESTIN 48 65 56 68 / 0 10 40 80
EVERGREEN 35 65 48 68 / 0 10 30 80
WAYNESBORO 37 62 49 68 / 0 20 50 80
CAMDEN 34 62 47 64 / 0 10 30 80
CRESTVIEW 37 65 50 68 / 0 10 30 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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