123
FXUS64 KMOB 292317
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH IN SPOTS.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
WATER LEVELS IN OUR BAYS AND SOUNDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL, ALONG WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS TODAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 60S TOMORROW.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BE OVER 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS AN INCREDIBLY RARE FEAT. THIS
DEEP TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DUE TO
STRONG FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE POOLING. WITH HOW LIGHT THIS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE, AND WITH HOW DRY AND WINDY WE WILL GET
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BLACK ICE ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S WEST OF I-65 AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR AREAS EAST. VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH IN SPOTS.
PAIRING THIS WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND LOWER TEENS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER AS A NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE COLD,
SINKING AIRMASS SHOULD HELP TO BRING DOWN GUSTIER WINDS FROM THIS
JET TO THE SURFACE, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO FREQUENTLY GUST
TO AROUND 35-40 MPH. IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND CONFIDENCE IN THESE
GUSTIER WINDS INCREASE, WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. THESE STRONG, COLD WINDS WILL ALSO
PREVENT US FROM WARMING MUCH. IN FACT, SOME INTERIOR ZONES ON
SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FACTORING IN THE GUSTY
WINDS, WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S!
OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS
PLUMMET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH THESE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, WE COULD
ACTUALLY GET PRETTY CLOSE TO RECORDS SUNDAY MORNING (FEB 1ST RECORD
LOWS - KMOB: 17; KPNS: 20). GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND NBM
PROBABILITIES GIVE A ROUGHLY 10-20% CHANCE OF KMOB REACHING THIS
RECORD, AND A 50- 60% CHANCE OF KPNS REACHING THIS RECORD. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS CAM
GUIDANCE GETS INTO RANGE. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL STILL REMAIN
RATHER ELEVATED, HELPING TO BRING SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS TO THE
ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS,
AND PIPES FROM THIS UPCOMING COLD WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO MODERATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS WILL
LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN A MVFR CEILING
DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY MAINLY WEST OF I-65 WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FURTHER TO THE EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING
BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10
KNOTS DEVELOPS FRIDAY MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION, WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS
10-12 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT TWO
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND FOR MARINE INTERESTS. THE FIRST IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW WATER LEVELS IN OUR LOCAL AREA BAYS AND
SOUNDS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WATER LEVELS MAY BE AS LOW AS 3-4 FEET BELOW MHHW (POTENTIALLY
AS LOW AS 4.5 FEET IN MOBILE BAY) AT LOW TIDE ON SATURDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE SECOND POTENTIAL HAZARD IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER MOBILE BAY. AIR
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, ALONG WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, COULD LEAD TO LIGHT ICING CONCERNS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 38 60 25 35 / 0 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 43 62 28 37 / 0 10 0 0
DESTIN 46 61 29 38 / 10 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 33 58 23 32 / 0 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 33 53 19 31 / 0 20 0 0
CAMDEN 32 53 21 30 / 0 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 34 62 26 34 / 0 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ633>636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-
670-675.
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