888
FXUS64 KMOB 061130
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THE
MOMENT. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING, CREATING
A STARK MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA. IN FACT, PWATS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM AS LOW AS 0.8-1.0 INCHES OVER OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES
TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF MOBILE, GEORGE, AND STONE
COUNTIES. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WITH PWAT VALUES OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA REACHING AS HIGH AS 2.2-2.4
INCHES BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS (WHICH, CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING, IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE). THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE NEARBY RIDGE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO SHEAR VALUES REMAINING VERY LOW. THAT BEING
SAID, THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES WOULD LIKELY
BE SLOW-MOVING, AND WITH VERY HIGH PWATS IN PLACE, STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. HREF 24HR LPMMS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2-5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 5-7
INCHES. IF ANY BOUNDARIES ARE ABLE TO SET UP AND STORMS ARE ABLE
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, THEN THE HIGHER-END VALUES MAY
BECOME REALIZED AND A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, MAINLY WEST OF I-65. STORMS
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP BY AROUND DAYBREAK, SPREADING INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SPOTS WHERE STORMS TRAIN, HOWEVER, HREF
LPMMS ARE NOT AS ENTHUSED ON HIGHER-END QPF AMOUNTS AS THEY ARE
FOR TODAY, POSSIBLY SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
MOTION TO THEM. RAIN CHANCES LOWER ONCE AGAIN BY THE EVENING
HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN (SPOTTY AFTERNOON PULSE-TYPE STORMS) RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MIDWEEK, ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT, WITH SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING AT AROUND 3-4 FEET. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT RCMOS PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED NOTICABLY FOR
SUNDAY. ANY FURTHER INCREASES IN PROBABILITIES MAY RESULT IN THE
HIGH RISK BEING EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY. AS WINDS WEAKEN, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK SHOULD DROP BACK TO A LOW RISK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY INCREASING BACK TO A MODERATE BY MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, AND A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY WITH LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-15 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY DIMINISH TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING GRADUALLY RELAX TO
AROUND 2 FEET BY MONDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 74 86 73 / 90 50 70 10
PENSACOLA 84 77 87 75 / 60 20 30 0
DESTIN 85 76 86 75 / 20 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 88 71 87 70 / 50 10 70 10
WAYNESBORO 83 72 86 72 / 100 40 80 20
CAMDEN 87 71 86 70 / 50 20 90 10
CRESTVIEW 88 71 89 70 / 30 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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