279
FXUS64 KMOB 280540
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1240 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EACH DAY STARTING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
THE FIRST ONE LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH WEAK DIFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE REMAINS FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
WAVE, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OR MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL SHOW INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPS FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A BIT STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD
TO STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST INSTEAD OF GENERAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR POSSIBLE.
CIGS WILL RISE AFTER SUNRISE TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS, AS WINDS RISE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON EVENING OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THESE
STORMS COULD IMPACT OPERATIONS OVER THOSE AREAS. SOUTH, THE IMPACT
OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL, THOUGH WINDS WILL STILL BE
STRONGER THAN USUAL, AROUND 10 KNOTS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY
FLOW FOR FRIDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 68 86 65 82 / 20 20 50 40
PENSACOLA 69 82 68 81 / 20 20 40 50
DESTIN 69 80 68 79 / 10 10 40 50
EVERGREEN 64 89 61 80 / 30 30 60 40
WAYNESBORO 66 86 61 77 / 40 40 70 30
CAMDEN 65 86 61 77 / 50 50 70 30
CRESTVIEW 63 87 63 83 / 20 20 50 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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