211
FXUS64 KMOB 230043
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
643 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK,
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.
- DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY BECOME A COMMON OCCURRENCE EACH NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. DENSE SEA FOG
MAY LINGER WELL PAST DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER
TODAY FROM EAST TO WEST IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF MERIDIAN, MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, OR ROUGHLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STALLED IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A DRY LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO ROUGHLY 5-6KFT WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH NET
ADIABATIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL WASHOUT LATER TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING FROM EAST-NORTHEAST BACK TO SOUTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF 60S DEWPOINTS THAT ARE NOW BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIGNALS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG AGAIN BY TOMORROW EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS FOG MAY BE A
COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG DEPENDING ON HOW
LARGE A SPREAD DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS IN THE
NEAR COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS OUR BAYS AND SOUNDS AND THE
INCREASING DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. WE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THIS
POTENTIAL AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL UPDATES LATER TONIGHT. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE FINALLY BREAKING DOWN ON SUNDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN US. FOR TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS IS GIVING WAY TO A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS IS LEADING TO A NEARLY 40 DEGREE DEW POINT
SPREAD ACROSS ALABAMA AND FLORIDA: DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA VERSUS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME LOWER DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WHICH MAY HELP TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR TONIGHT. ONLY PLACE THAT STILL HAS A SIGNAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. FOR TOMORROW, MOISTURE
SURGES BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PUSHES INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND ITS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
HELP TO ADVECT IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE GULF.
ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS PRIMED FOR DENSE
FOG TO BECOME A COMMON OCCURRENCE EACH NIGHT STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH POTENTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. AND
CONSIDERING THAT DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, MOVING OVER WATER TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE SEA FOG
LINGERING WELL AFTER SUNRISE EACH DAY.
AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S AND LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WE WILL
BECOME VERY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S (LOW 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) AND LOWS WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING, THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES AND AN IMPRESSIVE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR INTERIOR
COUNTIES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY
THURSDAY. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF PERIOD AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ADVECTED BELOW ROUGHLY 5KFT
UNDER LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TUESDAY MORNING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO ADVECT BACK OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND
EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS, EXPECT THE RETURN OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, TO
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT THE TAF SITES. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
DENSE SEA FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS LOCAL AREA BAYS AND
SOUNDS, AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. /JLH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 56 72 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 56 70 57 73 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 48 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 51 75 53 77 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 75 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 48 75 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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