424
FXUS64 KMOB 222337
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20% ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE COOL, DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEGINNING A GRADUAL PERIOD OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. OUR NEXT
POTENT UPPER TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE
ARKLATEX REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA, BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY COOL AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES HELPING TO
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80'S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40'S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50'S FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CRATER
INTO THE MIDDLE 30'S TO LOWER 40'S ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY KEEPING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 20 TO 25
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT SOME FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST GUIDANCE STILL VARIES A FAIR
AMOUNT ON HOW QUICKLY WE RECOVER DEWPOINTS, HOWEVER TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN TO MORE AGGRESSIVELY BRING IN WARMER,
MOISTER AIR INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60'S BY SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO WATCH AS IT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY. PRESUMING ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE TO GENERATE ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS UPPER DIFLUENCE
OVERSPREADS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA, IT'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS COLD AIR DAMMING FROM THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MAY
HELP TO KEEP A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE TO THE EAST. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN TIME.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SATURDAY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80'S, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY TOPPING OUT AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE 70'S, CONTINGENT ON
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA.
ONCE WE GET PAST THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM, WE DON'T REALLY SEE A PUSH
OF COOLER AIR LIKE WE DID WITH THIS PAST SYSTEM AS HIGHS CONTINUE
TO TOP OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S AND LOWS GENERALLY STAY
IN THE UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY STAYS
OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST WITH NO APPARENT SHORTWAVES MAKING IT
HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD HAVE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. WITH THAT SAID, SOME MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY PROMOTING AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND OUR RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL STEADILY INCREASE OWING TO THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY BECOMES A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY FRIDAY. THIS THEN BECOMES A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE RISK MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING INCREASINGLY EASTERLY DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. AFTER FLOW BRIEFLY WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT, A
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY. THIS
BECOMES A MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE MARINE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING MONDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 56 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 60 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 46 82 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 46 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 45 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 82 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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