172
FXUS64 KMOB 061146
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL TREND UPWARD, REACHING AROUND 100-107 DEGREES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP AT AREA BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
STARTING OFF TONIGHT WITH A BROAD OVERVIEW LOOKING AT THE MID-
LEVELS, WE REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERS,
ONE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, 594DM RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW US AND
ANOTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SLOW/STEADY
TRANSITION INTO A BROADER WEAKNESS REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STEADILY,
OBTAINING A BIT GREATER LCL-SURFACE INVERSION INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS GOING FOLLOWING SFC HEATING,
MORE PARTICULARLY AIDED BY SEA/BAYBREEZE COLLISIONS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, EXPECTING NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE TODAY STARTING OFF THE DAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FORCED BY THE NORTHWARD DRIFTING SEA/BAYBREEZE
FROM 15-18Z, THEN GREATER AREAL COVERAGE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE COAST CLEARS OUT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP FROM AFTERNOON PBL MIXING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY REACHING THE LOW 70'S/UPPER 60'S INLAND.
LOOKING BEYOND INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, QUITE
FRANKLY THE PATTERN REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME WITH LITTLE NOTABLE
CHANGES WITH THE SAME DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER WINDOWS
STARTING NEAR THE COAST, ENDING INLAND. WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE A
STEADY UPTICK IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT DOES CLIMB MAX HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 105-107 RANGE IN SPOTS, BUT STILL FAR FROM
ANYTHING CONCERNING/IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-AIR PATTERN DOES TRANSITION SLIGHTLY WITH THE RIDGE CENTER
PRESSING NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE DIPPING SOUTH TO JUST OFFSHORE COASTAL FL.
WHAT THIS COULD, IN PART DO IS ALLOW EAST TO WEST TROPICAL
IMPULSES TO RIDE WEST INTO THE GULF AND FIND THE WEAKNESS TOWARDS
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS WILL IN TURN SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE BY THE ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT AT PLAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP, MOIST SOUTHERLY GULF
FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE, NAMELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED/LATE END OF THE FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, TOOK A CLOSER LOOK AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY
ENSEMBLE SIMILARITIES AND TRENDS IN REGARDS TO A SUGGESTED
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, THAT 1) COULD REDUCE
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND 2) COULD RE-CRANK THE HEAT BACK UP A NOTCH.
CMC, EMS AND GEFS SIMILARITIES ARE RATHER CONFIDENT THUS FAR, SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE NEAR CLOSER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXISTS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CREATE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES.
VERY PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR INLAND LATE TONIGHT. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT STARTING AT 07/09Z DUE TO CONVECTION POSSIBLY
MOVING ONSHORE. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
5-10 KNOTS WILL RESUME TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS STAY 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFTS INLAND
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 73 92 73 / 30 10 20 0
PENSACOLA 89 75 90 76 / 10 10 20 0
DESTIN 89 77 89 77 / 10 10 30 10
EVERGREEN 92 71 93 73 / 30 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 96 73 95 71 / 20 20 10 20
CAMDEN 91 73 91 73 / 20 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 93 71 93 72 / 20 10 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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