560
FXUS64 KMOB 031900
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS WELL.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL OCCUR MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF, AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WELL IT IS NOTICABLY WARMER THAN IT WAS JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO
AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOORSTEP. A SUBTLE SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAK WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM OUR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS THIS EVENING TO OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS ALREADY
APPROACHING 70 TODAY. A RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCE THAN A COUPLE DAYS
AGO.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINTER WILL THROW ONE LAST SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A RATHER PRONOUNCED PATTERN CHANGE IS LURKING ON
THE HORIZON AND A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
WE WILL REALLY START TO SEE THE CHANGES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US
AND THE GULF MOISTURE HE HAVE BEEN MISSING MAKES ITS TRIUMPHANT
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR BETTER OR WORSE. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 70S WITH LOWS STEADILY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF I-65 WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DOWN INTO THE IFR/MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 10 TO
15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS RELAX SOME THIS EVENING
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. IFR
CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THEN SWITCHES
TO A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY, SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 60 33 51 / 80 80 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 62 35 51 / 70 90 0 0
DESTIN 56 63 36 51 / 70 90 10 0
EVERGREEN 47 57 29 49 / 90 80 0 0
WAYNESBORO 45 54 28 49 / 100 20 0 0
CAMDEN 46 54 28 46 / 100 40 0 0
CRESTVIEW 50 62 31 50 / 70 90 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ630>632-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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