146
FXUS64 KMOB 301145
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 110. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED. WE STILL
EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH HEAT
INDICES RISING UP TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 6 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COUNTIES, PUSHING WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS TO AROUND 40-60 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
108-110 IN MANY AREAS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA. BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON, AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF US. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHILE HIGHS CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE A LIGHT, NORTHERLY
FLOW. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BRIEFLY BECOME A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT DIURNAL PATTERN RETURNS FOR LATE WEEK, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED AT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER
THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 75 93 75 / 40 30 40 0
PENSACOLA 96 78 93 78 / 60 30 20 0
DESTIN 93 79 92 79 / 50 30 20 0
EVERGREEN 96 74 94 73 / 60 30 10 0
WAYNESBORO 97 76 95 75 / 20 20 30 10
CAMDEN 95 75 92 74 / 30 30 20 0
CRESTVIEW 96 75 95 74 / 60 30 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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