475
FXUS64 KMOB 031841
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR ALL AREA BEACHES.
- DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, REACHING
BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN OPENS AND MOVES OFF AS UPPER HIGHS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND OFF THE EAST COAST BUILD EAST/WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHEAST OPENS AND MOVES OFF WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS. A SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH AND BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
UPPER RIDGE, RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A DRIER
AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 1.5", WITH THE DRIER AIR
BEING ABOVE 700MB) THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTHEAST (AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) BEGINS TO
MOISTEN, RISING TO 1.7"-2.0" BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
OVERALL, A DRY BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AN
UPTICK WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65 WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A DRY BAND FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED BEGINNING THURSDAY, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
RISING THURSDAY ON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, SEABREEZE INITIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE
SURFACE MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY
(MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG), THOUGH ANY ORGANIZING SHEAR IS LIMITED.
SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPES RISING ABOVE 1000J/KG EACH AFTERNOON, ENOUGH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
(CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE) RISING ABOVE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY, AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S
TONIGHT (MID 70S ALONG THE COAST) RISE TO THE LOW TO LOW TO MID 70S
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST). HEAT INDICES IN THE
95-101 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY RISE INTO THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE BY
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
DOMINANT AND EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. MOISTURE
LEVELS RISE BACK OVER 2". RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN RESPONSE, THOUGH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE
POPS, TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES RISING
TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, THE MODERATE
RISK TODAY DROPS TO A LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE RIP RISK TO AN UPPER
LOW TO MODERATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND, WITH OUR FLORIDA BEACHES
SEEING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A MODERATE RISK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK, SHIFTING A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 90 75 91 77 / 10 10 10 0
DESTIN 89 76 89 78 / 10 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 90 68 91 70 / 20 0 10 10
WAYNESBORO 91 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 87 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 0
CRESTVIEW 91 69 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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