018  
FXUS64 KMOB 272349  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
549 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS  
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS TO IFR  
TO LIFR THRESHOLDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS,  
SOUTHWEST AL AND THE INTERIOR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT  
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE INTRODUCED MENTION OF IFR TO LIFR  
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE KMOB AND KBFM  
TERMINAL FORECASTS DURING THE 11-16Z TIME FRAME, BUT KEPT CEILINGS  
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OUT OR ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS AT KPNS AND  
KJKA WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM  
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. /21  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022/  
   
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM...  
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA HAS  
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING THE CLEAR,  
PLEASANT DAY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE  
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INLAND COUNTIES, WITH  
LOWER TO MID 50S OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL THEN BE  
SIMILAR TO TODAY, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS  
TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NEW  
MEXICO AND IS SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE  
ARKLATEX REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING  
MORE DIFFUSE ALONG THE WAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT  
OVER OUR AREA UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING SHORTWAVE  
PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. BRIEF  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE  
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES  
PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE,  
NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. MERELY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN  
SOME CLOUDS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE.  
 
LASTLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE  
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH  
A MODERATE RISK FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A LOW RISK WILL  
THEN FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL  
QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A HIGH RISK ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY DUE TO  
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. /26  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE.  
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF  
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD  
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AS AN  
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON  
WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL  
AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN AND NORTH  
AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER DYNAMICS PULL AWAY FROM  
THE REGION. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO  
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH  
REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF EVENTUAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT AVAILABLE TO  
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES  
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /13  
 
LONG TERM...  
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SFC HIGH WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT  
EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO  
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE  
70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE PERIOD WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS NORTHWEST  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. /13  
 
MARINE...  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE  
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS  
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS NEXT  
WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS, IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW IN THE  
WAKE THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS;  
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL GALE  
PRODUCTS AS WELL. /26  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 52 71 56 74 66 73 39 59 / 0 0 0 50 80 70 0 0  
PENSACOLA 56 71 60 74 67 74 43 60 / 0 0 0 30 70 90 0 0  
DESTIN 60 71 62 72 68 73 46 60 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 0 0  
EVERGREEN 48 69 47 74 62 72 35 57 / 0 0 0 30 70 80 0 0  
WAYNESBORO 45 68 49 72 61 69 34 54 / 0 0 0 60 90 40 0 0  
CAMDEN 45 68 47 72 61 71 34 54 / 0 0 0 30 80 70 0 0  
CRESTVIEW 47 73 52 75 63 75 38 60 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 0 0  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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