807
FXUS64 KMOB 101920
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW
1/4 OF A MILE OVER LAND AREAS AND BELOW 1 MILE OVER MARINE
ZONES. USE EXTRA TIME AND CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS, AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
OVERALL, WEATHER WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST BEFORE A STRONGER SYSTEM
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ONLY PRECIP THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. COUPLE THIS WITH
COLD GULF WATERS AND YOU HAVE A RECIPE FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE TOO STRONG,
ESPECIALLY INLAND, FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SETUP
AND OVERALL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG, WE WENT WITH
ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE WILL BEGIN TO RELOAD AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A STOUT UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE MOST
OF OUR ATTENTION WILL GO TOWARDS AS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE SIGNS OF
POTENTIALLY PACKING A PUNCH. AT A MINIMUM, WE SHOULD EXPECT A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE COUPLED
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE ANALOG GUIDANCE CERTAINLY
POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
COULD WE MUSTER GIVEN THE COLD GULF WATERS AND WEAK RETURN FLOW IN
THE DAYS PRIOR. TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN GET. IF WE TREND TOWARDS MORE INSTABILITY
THAN CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WILL INCREASE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, IT WOULD BE BEST TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE BEGIN
TO HONE IN ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LUCKILY IT IS
STILL ROUGHLY 6 DAYS OUT AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT.
BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REDUCING CEILING AND
VISIBILITY DOWN TO LIFR AND VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES. FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO LATE
MORNING OVER COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, CALMING TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING WESTERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE FOR
A SHORT PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS AREA WATERS. DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OVER
NEAR SHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY THE SATURDAY AND STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TO
STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND AND GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE MARINE
WATERS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 76 52 72 / 0 20 10 0
PENSACOLA 59 74 54 69 / 10 20 10 0
DESTIN 60 71 54 67 / 10 20 10 0
EVERGREEN 57 76 47 70 / 10 30 10 0
WAYNESBORO 56 75 46 69 / 10 20 0 0
CAMDEN 57 74 44 68 / 20 30 10 0
CRESTVIEW 57 77 50 72 / 10 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ALZ059-060-261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
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