058  
FXUS64 KMOB 251834  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1234 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS AND AVIATION  
DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM UPDATE /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
FORECAST  
FOR THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES.  
 
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS  
EVENING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST WITH A WEAK  
LOW ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT, AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION, MID/UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER INCREASES, WITH LIGHT RAIN- SHOWERS BEGINNING TO  
APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE  
SUNDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA  
DRIFTING EAST, AND WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER  
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED  
COMPARED TO LAST FEW NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S  
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST  
(AND A FEW LOWER 50S ALONG BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES).  
 
ON SUNDAY, AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES OVER THE AREA AND  
WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST, A  
CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE LOCAL FORECAST. WITH VERY LIMITED  
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND WITH MODELS SHOWING VERY  
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY, MAINLY ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT  
OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW,  
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE  
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT GOOD CHANCE TO  
LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY (ESPECIALLY  
WESTERN AND COASTAL AREAS) AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS FROM PREVIOUS  
FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT MANY OF THE HIRES MODELS  
ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE ON SUNDAY, SO SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE MADE ON LATER FORECAST UPDATES. DAYTIME HIGHS  
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SATURDAY (BUT PERHAPS  
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN A FEW LOCATIONS), RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER  
INTERIOR NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHERN ZONES. /12  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
25/18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL BE SEEING INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (WHILE WILL NOT IMPACT  
OPERATIONS). TOWARD DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WE WILL START SEE SOME  
CLOUD BASES LOWER TO MVFR CRITERIA, WITH MVFR CEILINGS (LOOKING TO  
BE AROUND 2500-3000 FEET) DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER TREND  
ALSO EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION, WITH A GOOD  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN HALF AND COASTAL  
SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LIGHT MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
THIS THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
/12  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 506 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS AND AVIATION  
DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
NEAR TERM UPDATE...NO CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. MOSTLY  
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO  
MID 60S EXPECTED TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS, ALONG  
WITH LIGHT RAIN-SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE  
FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 40  
INLAND TO LOW TO MID 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
/16  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE  
AREA WILL SEE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY THROUGH  
TONIGHT, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OPERATIONS. NORTH  
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS LOW  
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  
/16  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHIFTS EAST OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO RESPONSE. FOR TODAY,  
EVEN WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENING, THE  
AIRMASS REMAINS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE TO,  
BUT REMAIN A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  
 
TONIGHT, AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION, MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES, WITH LIGHT RAIN-  
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST  
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL  
INCREASINGLY INHIBIT OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE COOL  
AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA, BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
AROUND 40 INLAND TO LOW TO MID 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST EXPECTED.  
/16  
 
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE  
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA, BRINGING RAIN-SHOWERS TO  
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD, AND MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER LAND AREAS,  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO  
WARRANT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SOUNDINGS  
OVER OPEN GULF WATERS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ADDING A  
MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. THE RAIN  
AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TIGHTEN THE DIURNAL  
TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY  
IN THE MID 50S, LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S.  
 
FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ZONAL UPPER FLOW  
RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVES OVER  
THE REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF, BRINGING A BIT DRIER AIR BACK  
TO THE FORECAST AREA AND ALLOWING FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING/NIGHT  
TIME COOLING. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO  
THE LOW TO MID 60S, A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, AGAIN.  
/16  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL  
OCCUR AS TWO MAIN SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST UPPER  
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING  
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, BUT QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE  
REACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN PASS OVER  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THEN OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER  
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO  
MOVE EAST, TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP THE  
FORECAST AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR, ALONG WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND  
FLOW, SO CONVECTION WILL BE SHALLOW WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS  
SYSTEM, SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF  
DRY PATTERN WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.  
 
THE SECOND UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH OVER  
THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL ALSO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE REACHING LOUISIANA.  
THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE  
BEYOND THIS, WITH THE ECMWF BEING FASTER AND WEAKER COMPARED THE  
STRONGER AND SLOWER GFS, SO THE NBM OFFERS A NICE SOLUTION BETWEEN  
THE TWO. WHILE WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING PRECIPITATION FROM  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS WINDOW WILL LIKELY SHORTEN  
AS THE MODELS BECOME MORE ALIGNED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.  
NATURALLY, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ALSO OFFSET AT THIS TIME.  
THE ECMWF HAS OUR AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER  
THE GULF OF MEXICO, BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
WEAKENS, WHILE THE GFS HAS OUR AREA IN A WARM SECTOR WITH THE LOW  
TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND DEEPENING. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS  
OUT OF THE FORECAST PENDING BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FORECASTER  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY, WITH UPPER  
50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY  
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /22  
 
MARINE...LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY WILL  
TRANSITION TO A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT  
AS A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF  
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO AT TIME MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS BEGINNING  
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO MID WEEK, WHEN A SECOND SURFACE  
LOW PASSES SOUTH OF AREA COASTAL WATERS. THIS LOW WILL BRING  
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TO MAINLY OPEN WATERS LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /16  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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