834
FXUS64 KMOB 111711
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1111 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG STORMS TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF IS MAY CAUSE ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN TROUBLE SPOTS
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE HEADLINE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S
TODAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS ALSO STAY
RELATIVELY WARM IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EACH NIGHT, PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, ALL EYES TURN TOWARDS OUR NEXT
IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ALLOWING FOR A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL MASS RESPONSE BRINGING
WARM, MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A HIGHLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CAVEAT RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT FOR STORMS TO UTILIZE. OUR
RECENT COLD SNAPS HAVE COOLED OUR BAYS/SOUNDS AND ADJACENT GULF
WATERS QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST MONTH WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE AREA. IF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
CAN MATERIALIZE, IT WILL OVERLAP WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
AROUND 60 KNOTS AND LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 200 TO 300
M2/S2 OF LOW LEVEL SRH. MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT ON THE TROUGH EVOLUTION, WITH
SMALL VARIATIONS IN ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION. A SLOWER TROUGH
PROGRESSION WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE RETURN AND THE FORCED
LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, WHICH WOULD
BE THE MAIN PATHWAY FOR US TO REALIZE A MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THE MOMENT, GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY QUICK
WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THINGS KEEPING THE THREAT
RELATIVELY LOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OWING TO A STRONG 40KT 925MB JET AND SOME PROPENSITY TO MIX
THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ARE NOT
FORECAST AT THE MOMENT, I WON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE IN
SPOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35MPH RANGE NEARER THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE THE SYSTEM SLOW DOWN AT ALL TO ALLOW
FOR SOME BETTER SURFACE HEATING PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE
OF STORMS AND THE COLD FRONT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SURF
HEIGHTS RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE ALONG COASTAL
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, WE
DON'T REALLY COOL OFF MUCH AND MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
BECOMES A MODERATE RISK BY THURSDAY AND A HIGH RISK FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY BECOMES LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY, BECOMING MODERATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH IF CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WIND
GUSTS INCREASES. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GRADUALLY
WANING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 72 50 72 / 10 0 10 10
PENSACOLA 55 69 50 69 / 20 0 10 10
DESTIN 53 68 51 68 / 10 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 45 70 43 73 / 10 0 10 10
WAYNESBORO 45 69 48 71 / 10 0 10 10
CAMDEN 43 67 43 69 / 10 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 48 72 43 74 / 20 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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