701
FXUS64 KMOB 122348
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE, ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ONLY FEATURE THAT DOES ATTEMPT TO PASS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA IS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT,
ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO INLAND LOCATIONS
CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY LATE WEEK. LOWS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S, TRENDING CLOSER TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERALL DENSE FOG COVERAGE RATHER PATCHY
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
MAY HELP TO LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. THIS INCREASED
POTENTIAL CAN BE SEEN BY MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE LATEST
SREF/HREF GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
VISIBILITIES LOWERING AS PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORMS MOSTLY
INLAND WITH IFR LEVELS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX OUT SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WILL RESUME A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. /96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR OUR ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION
AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA, THE WORSENING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 64 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 64 75 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 55 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 54 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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