455
FXUS64 KMOB 172328
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SYSTEM PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
STATES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A LARGE UPPER TROF MEANWHILE
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT, WHICH BRINGS MILD TEMPERATURES AND ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCE TO OCCASIONALLY LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH, THEN RAIN CHANCES TAPER
OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO 500-1000
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED. SIMILAR MLCAPE VALUES ARE
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT AN EXAMINATION OF
MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO SHOW THIS MORE OF A "TALL-SKINNY" CAPE
DISTRIBUTION, AND SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS
POINT.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY BY WHICH TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH SIMILAR VALUES
FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S
THEN TREND TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SIMILARLY MILD VALUES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, AND IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE EVENING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
FOG FORMATION WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED BY A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /29
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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