418
FXUS64 KMOB 190436 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR NEAR 10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1059 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN
GULF WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA OUT TO 60 NM
INCLUDING THE LOWER HALF OF MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
EAST OF PASCAGOULA THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
32/EE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY OR CALM WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT (EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST) THEN BECOME NORTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS
ON TUESDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019/
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, BUT A DRY,
REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AL THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, SO NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT,
BROKEN TO OCNLY OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT ALL MODELS ARE
INDICATING A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY, SO WILL LOOK FOR
MORE SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES, AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. 12/DS
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW AN INCH AND ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON THURSDAY.
/13
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER RIDGING
ALSO BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ADVANCES EASTWARD, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
SETS UP ON A THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. /13
MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING A PRIMARY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT,
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. 12/DS
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
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