299
FXUS64 KMOB 051151
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
551 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES IN THIS PATTERN AS
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES STREAMING INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA), MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY, BUT THE SHEAR IS LACKING ON FRIDAY, SO WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHES OFF FROM A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR WEST. A
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OR WASH OUT BEFORE MAKING IT TO OUR
AREA (THANKS PARTIALLY TO THE NEARBY RIDGE). A CLUSTER OR LINE OF
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. WE DON'T EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE A WASH OUT, BUT THERE
WILL BE STORMS IN THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY ROBUST, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS
AT THIS TIME. THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD IN
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE.
BEACH FORECAST - MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO
THE HIGH RISK BEING EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH-END MODERATE RISK LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BUMP IN THE RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
AND CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH POTENTIALLY VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURNING TO THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT (POTENTIALLY
DENSE) POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 65 79 65 / 10 20 50 10
PENSACOLA 75 65 76 66 / 10 10 20 10
DESTIN 72 63 73 63 / 10 10 20 0
EVERGREEN 84 60 83 61 / 20 10 40 0
WAYNESBORO 83 64 80 65 / 0 10 60 10
CAMDEN 82 62 82 63 / 10 10 50 0
CRESTVIEW 81 60 82 60 / 20 10 30 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ056-059-
060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>636-
650-655.
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