588
FXUS64 KMOB 041121
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
521 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
- RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
LATEST NIGHT FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT, MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS,
AND WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF DENSE FOG OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOBILE BAY. THE LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING THIS
FOG MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ISSUED A SHORT
PERIOD MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 8AM.
/22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
RIDGING ALOFT GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THIS PATTERN AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE
LEVELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES STREAMING INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THIS PATTERN (RELATIVELY HIT-OR-MISS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MOST SPOTS STAYING DRY) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS
GENERALLY WEST OF THE I- 65 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
AS WE ROLL DEEPER INTO THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PINCHES OFF FROM THE TROUGH. THIS CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADES TOWARD
SOCAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY DAMPENS OUT AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT LIKELY TURNS MORE
ZONAL AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A LINE OF STORMS
ORGANIZES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG A FRONT,
BUT THE STORMS (AND FRONT) BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS THEY SLIDE CLOSER
TO OUR LOCAL AREA. AT THIS POINT, IT'S TOUGH TO TELL JUST HOW FAR
THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST - MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGH-END MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS ANY FURTHER
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BUMP IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK LATE IN THE WEEK. 07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE SETTLING INTO THE COASTAL ALABAMA
TERMINALS AT 05Z. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER SUNRISE. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 61 80 65 / 0 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 74 62 75 65 / 0 0 20 0
DESTIN 73 61 73 62 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 84 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 0
WAYNESBORO 82 60 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN 82 57 82 61 / 0 0 20 0
CRESTVIEW 81 57 81 60 / 0 0 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630.
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