227
FXUS64 KMOB 120550 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND RECOVERY EFFORTS
FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO
ANCHOR ITSELF DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS HIGH, AS WELL AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN
0.7 AND 1.0 INCH) WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES, VERY WARM HIGHS,
AND COOL LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AS STATED IN YESTERDAY'S
DISCUSSION, THESE HIGHS MAY GET CLOSE TO, IF NOT BEAT, OUR
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN FACT, LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT
TODAY (OCTOBER 12TH), THE RECORD HIGH FOR KMOB IS 89. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A HIGH OF 91, WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT WE
COULD EVEN GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER. NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ALSO
GIVE A ROUGHLY 40-60% CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD. THE GOOD NEWS
IS, THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND
60S. THAT BEING SAID, NUMEROUS LOCATIONS WHICH WERE IMPACTED BY
HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE STILL WITHOUT POWER. THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE SUN, COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES. EVERYONE PART OF THE RECOVERY PROCESS IS URGED
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
ESPECIALLY IF ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. LOWS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND
TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, INCREASING BY A FEW DEGREES BY
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, CALM
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES MAY HELP TO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EACH MORNING THIS WEEK. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
LONGER RANGED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. BEHIND
IT, A MUCH COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS MAY DROP INTO THE 70S, ALONG WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. VERY ISOLATED
FOG IN LOW-LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE
INCLUDED AT OUR TAF SITES, EXCEPT FOR JKA. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SEA BREEZE
AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WHILE REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTERIOR
AREAS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DIURNAL FLOW CYCLE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 63 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 88 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 86 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 89 58 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 91 59 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 88 59 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 88 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page