338
FXUS64 KMOB 071854
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES,
MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT SLOWLY
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS CONTINUING TO BE FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 40MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS COMBINED WITH
AROUND 1,000J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
IN THE MOST ROBUST PARTS OF THE LINE. THIS LINE WILL REACH THE
COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE SOMETIME EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
WITH THIS, BUT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS TO AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING UNLESS WE GET SOME FORM OF TRAINING
OVER URBAN AREAS. WE MAY MANAGE TO GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY DRY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS SHOULD KEEP FOG PROSPECTS
PRETTY LOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE LINES PASSAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS SEA FOG OVERSPREADS THE MARINE WATERS
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEACH HAZARDS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR LOCAL BEACHES. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR MONDAY AND A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY, HOWEVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT POTENT SYSTEM THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE
BACK TO A HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING ALOFT. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
ROBUST ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S., WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
ANTICIPATION FOR STRONG WIND SHEAR, AMPLE INSTABILITY, AND GOOD
FORCING OVERHEAD. THERE REMAIN QUESTIONS ON TIMING OF THE BEST
FORCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND OTHERS DURING THE NIGHT. IF IT'S
DURING THE DAY, A GREATER THREAT COULD EVOLVE WITH MORE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. IF IT'S DURING THE NIGHT, THE THREAT MAY BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT WITH GENERALLY WEAKER INSTABILITY. IT REMAINS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TO IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. VLIFR TO
LIFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DENSE FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. AT
LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 76 65 82 / 60 70 20 20
PENSACOLA 67 74 66 78 / 20 60 20 10
DESTIN 64 72 65 75 / 10 50 20 10
EVERGREEN 63 75 62 84 / 40 70 30 30
WAYNESBORO 65 74 63 82 / 70 90 20 40
CAMDEN 64 72 62 81 / 60 80 20 50
CRESTVIEW 62 76 62 84 / 20 60 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ631-632-650.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ634>636.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ655.
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