502
FXUS64 KMOB 301122
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER GULF WATERS, HAVE
STARTED POPS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. NO OTHER UPDATES MADE.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS THE WEAKENING EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH RETREATS, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY HUMID GULF AIR INLAND
THIS EVENING, ENDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY (UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S), WITH LOWS TONIGHT RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
AT THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, STARTING NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
AND SPREADING INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE BRIEF GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR AND STABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ON
FRIDAY, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PWATS
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
A VERY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 2.3 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH SITS ABOVE THE 98TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND LOCALLY INTENSE RATES. WHILE THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BECOME A RISK WHERE STORMS TRAIN REPEATEDLY,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
THE FLOOD THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
AREAS SUFFERING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT ADVANCES BEFORE STALLING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS,
PERSISTENT CLOUDS, RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE BEACHES, STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. 10 TO 15 KNOTS CLOSER TO
THE COAST, 5 TO 10 KNOTS INLAND EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST
LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS MAY DAMPEN THE AREA, BUT THE MAIN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OVER LAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STRENGTHENS, TRANSFORMING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER AREA
WATERS INTO A MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BRING WINDS AT
TIMES RISING TO STRONG LEVELS, MAINLY OVER FAR OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET OVER OPEN GULF WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SC.Y
LEVELS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 72 88 73 / 10 20 60 40
PENSACOLA 88 76 87 76 / 10 30 60 50
DESTIN 87 76 86 76 / 10 20 50 50
EVERGREEN 92 66 90 67 / 0 0 50 10
WAYNESBORO 92 67 89 68 / 0 0 50 10
CAMDEN 92 67 90 68 / 0 0 40 0
CRESTVIEW 91 68 89 70 / 10 0 50 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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