035
FXUS64 KMOB 191111
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (60%) PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- A WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REACHING TO 105-111 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HEAT REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY, THOUGH HEAT INDICES MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY (108). DESPITE THESE LOWER VALUES, HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN SE MS THAT MEET CRITERIA. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY. /73
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
110. ELSEWHERE, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 108, BUT STILL VERY WARM WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 100-107
EXPECTED. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE
BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK IS THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS CURRENTLY
OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA, NOW CALLED INVEST 91L. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPPED OUR PROBABILITIES TO A 60% CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN 48 HOURS. IT IS CURRENTLY NOT VERY ORGANIZED, BUT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW MORE ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IF
IT IS ABLE TO BE SAMPLED WITH RECONNAISSANCE TODAY, THAT WILL HELP
INFORM THE MODELS AND HOPEFULLY GET MORE CONSENSUS.
WPC HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE WHOLE AREA TODAY AND AREAS JUST ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE NORMAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS SITTING
AROUND 1.9". LREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW PWATS INCREASING UP TO ~2.25"
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DISTURBANCE STARTING MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSER TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY AND
REINFORCES THE TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THIS INTRODUCES ENHANCED RAIN RATES WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES IN PLAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW WHICH HELPS DETERMINE OUR IMPACTS.
MUCH OF THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE COAST IN
OUR AREA AND THEREFORE MOST OF THE RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP IMPACTS FOCUSED LARGELY ON THE MARINE AREA WITH GUSTY
WINDS, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, AND AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK. A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH THE CENTER JUST ALONG OR INLAND WOULD BRING
MORE QPF AND FLOODING IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
AFTER INVEST 91L, WE ARE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH FOR FLORIDA BEACHES
MONDAY AND ALABAMA BEACHES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL BRING INCREASING
FLOW, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE COAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 75 95 75 / 60 20 60 30
PENSACOLA 93 77 94 77 / 70 20 60 30
DESTIN 90 77 91 78 / 70 20 60 30
EVERGREEN 93 72 94 73 / 70 20 30 20
WAYNESBORO 97 75 97 76 / 30 20 20 10
CAMDEN 93 74 94 74 / 70 20 20 10
CRESTVIEW 93 72 94 74 / 70 20 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page