952
FXUS64 KMOB 221516
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1016 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING. A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO AND DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
22.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT HIGHER
LEVELS ATOP THE AREA. A COMPLEX, BROAD UPPER TROF IS POSITIONED
OVER THE PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN A SHORT-WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE
ORIENTED TROF, A LEAD IMPULSE IS EJECTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND HAS
BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ACTIVE EARLY PORTION OF THE SHIFT WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES EXHIBITING
ROTATION NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS.
THESE STORMS FORMED WITHIN OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY/SHEAR/AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ~150
M2/S2 ATOP A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE TROF DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN MS.
THE LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD LOWER THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD STILL OVERACHIEVE WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A
CONDITIONAL, MAINLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER LYING AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR
DRAINAGE WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. /10
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER THE
EAST COAST DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILST THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINTAINS A SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT RUNNING FROM
SOUTHERN TX TO THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. A SOUPY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE
H20 VALUES OF 1.8"-2.0") THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ADDED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS CONCERN THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MLCAPES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE
(BETWEEN 1500-2500J/KG) WITH 0-1KM HELICITIES IN THE 80-120 M^2/S^2.
ADD IN A MODEST 30-35KT 850MB JET PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WORKING WITH ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THURSDAY'S
ACTIVITY, WIND DAMAGE FROM ANY SPINNERS ALONG WITH BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH TIMING BEGINNING NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALSO, WITH
THE SOUPY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS, WATER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATED.
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF I-65, BUT ANY DECENT UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MISSING UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ORGANIZE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TX.
THE ABOVE SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CREATE A BELOW SEASONAL TO
AROUND/ABOVE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TO MID 80S FRIDAY SEE AN UPTICK TO MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84
SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
AND UPPER HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER ENERGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW VARIES IN STRENGTH, WITH ONSHORE SWELL VARYING IN
RESPONSE. THE TIDAL CYCLE SLOWLY DECREASES INTO THE COMING WEEK, BUT
THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED, BUT WILL INCREASE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY UNDER ANY STORMS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTING AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25 /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 72 86 71 / 90 50 70 20
PENSACOLA 82 74 84 73 / 80 40 50 20
DESTIN 83 74 83 73 / 70 60 60 20
EVERGREEN 82 70 85 69 / 90 40 90 20
WAYNESBORO 82 69 85 68 / 90 50 70 50
CAMDEN 80 69 84 68 / 100 50 80 40
CRESTVIEW 84 70 87 70 / 80 50 80 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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