276  
FXUS64 KMOB 190929  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
429 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND  
TONIGHT, WHILE AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROF JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST  
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. AT  
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A WEAK TROF REMAINS OVER THE  
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS  
THE REGION AS AN ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP  
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE  
THAT SOME CONVECTION, LIKELY INITIATED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY EVENING'S CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF  
OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM  
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, MOST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT  
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS  
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH  
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR EASTERN INTERIOR ZONES BETWEEN THE  
TWO LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES JUST MENTIONED. SOME CONVECTION  
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING  
OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WE EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT  
IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT  
INDICES RISING BACK INTO THE 101-107 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT,  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER INTERIOR  
LOCATIONS AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE  
COAST. 12/DS  
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND  
UPCOMING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN POSITIONED  
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. ON  
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, AN INVERTED TROF AXIS  
ALIGNED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY EASES  
SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. THE TROF  
BRINGS AN ENHANCEMENT TO FORCING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT  
CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT DEEP GULF MOISTURE (PWATS => 1.8 TO 2  
INCHES), FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT  
TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
MAINTAINING A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. DAYTIME  
HIGHS RANGE FROM 87 TO 92. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S  
INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10  
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN  
LOOKS TO CARRY OVER INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF  
DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST AND OH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY  
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROF  
ALLOWS A SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY BRINGING  
THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO  
THE COAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL  
NEAR THE COAST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ASCENT FAVORING KEEPING A  
MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, DAYTIME HIGHS BY THE LATTER  
END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S. /10  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF  
TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO  
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE  
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE  
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
SOUTH TOWARD AND INTO THE MARINE AREA BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH  
A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE, REMAINING WESTERLY  
OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT  
INCREASE IN WINDS IN SEAS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 92 74 89 74 89 73 90 73 / 40 20 70 30 60 20 60 30  
PENSACOLA 91 77 89 76 89 77 89 76 / 40 30 60 30 50 20 30 30  
DESTIN 88 78 87 78 87 78 88 78 / 50 40 60 30 30 20 30 30  
EVERGREEN 93 74 91 74 92 73 91 73 / 70 30 70 30 60 30 60 40  
WAYNESBORO 93 74 88 72 89 72 88 71 / 50 20 70 30 60 30 60 50  
CAMDEN 93 74 89 73 90 73 89 72 / 60 40 70 30 60 30 60 50  
CRESTVIEW 93 74 91 72 91 72 92 73 / 60 30 70 20 60 20 50 30  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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