392
FXUS64 KMOB 171804
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS TO POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES ON SATURDAY. THIS
DANGER IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. IN ADDITION, A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
AS WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGIN TO EASE, HAVE BEGUN TO TRANSITION
PRODUCTS. HAVE CUT THE WINDS ADVISORY TO JUST OUR FL COUNTIES AND
MID/LOWER MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. LATEST VWP FROM KMXX SHOW
WINDS BELOW 35KT/40MPH IN THE BONDARY LAYER, EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 5K'. KMOB AND KEVX STILL SHOWING LAYERS ABOVE THAT
MAGNITUDE IN THE MIXING LAYER. ALSO, WITH WINDS EASING OVER
PROTECTED WATERS, HAVE BEGUN THE TRANSITION TO SC.Y EARLIER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. MARINE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING WINDS REMAINING
AT SC.Y LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS AS A BIT OF
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE COMPROMISED TREES LEANING
OVER STRUCTURES, POWER LINES, AND ROADWAYS. THESE TREES MAY
SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE PILES OF DEBRIS
THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND WHICH MAY AGAIN BLOCK ROADWAYS AND LEAD
TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES IN AREAS WHERE
POWER WAS RECENTLY RESTORED AND NEW ROAD CLOSURES. IN ADDITION,
STRUCTURES MAY BE HIT BY FALLING TREES IN LOCATIONS WHERE TREES
ARE LEANING OVER HOMES AND BUILDINGS. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS OR DRIVING THIS TONIGHT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVILY DAMAGED LOCATIONS, EXPECT STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING LARGE BRANCHES AND A FEW
TREES. WHERE LARGE BRANCHES OR TREES FALL ACROSS POWER LINES,
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR MARINE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL
CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE VENTURING
OUT INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN
PORT THROUGH SATURDAY AS VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA WATERS.
FINALLY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH RECEIVED LITTLE
RAIN FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS. THESE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FAST AND UNCONTROLLED
WILDFIRE SPREAD. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM BURNING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN AREAS WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. IT IS
ALSO STRONGLY ADVISED TO NOT BURN EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREAS WHERE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ADVANCED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE LOWER
50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WINDS OVER LAND WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS, NOSING INTO OUR AREA UNDER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. THE
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL STEADILY INCREASE BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S EAST OF I-65, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEST
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND TO LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST AS DIURNAL RANGES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE.
BY MIDWEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH AROUND A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S INTERIOR TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /JLH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 5-10 KNOTS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A LIGHT, DIURNALLY VARIABLE, FLOW TODAY QUICKLY BECOMES STRONG TO
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO EASTERLY, WHILST REMAINING STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN
GULF WATERS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE, ALONG WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO GALES, A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, TAPERING TO
JUST OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER THE GALES GO
DOWN, LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF
WATERS. /16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT OVER AREAS
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF
WILDFIRES OVER THESE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO, ANY AREAS WITH DEBRIS STILL ON THE
GROUND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WILL BE AT ADDED RISK. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 55 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 57 71 55 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 70 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 69 46 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 67 46 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 70 50 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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