125
FXUS64 KMOB 042338
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
538 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
- RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
SHIFTS EAST AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS, BECOMING A SEMI ORGANIZED UPPER HIGH
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT WEST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY (WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O LEVELS AROUND 0.8" THIS MORNING) GRADUALLY MOISTENS
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (TO AROUND 1.5") AS THE UPPER
HIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
HAS BEEN BETTER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH
SHIFTS EAST CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHOWERS RETURN FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX IN, THOUGH LIMITED FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CHALLENGE, WITH STRONGER WINDS
LEADING TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS APPOSED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER HAVE
SHOWN THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG OVER
THE GULF THAT HAVE DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING HAVE YET
TO APPEAR IN THE NBM, SO HAVE HAD TO USE THE LATEST PHYSICAL
GUIDANCE TO HANDLE.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OVER THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, STALLING BETWEEN THE I-20 AND I-10 CORRIDORS. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE
INCREASE, MORE RUMBLERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPTICK IN CONVECTION.
WIND SHEAR AT ALL LEVELS REMAINS BEST WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR WIND SHEAR FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOT INDICATED, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR,
ESPECIALLY IF THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AS APPOSED TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. A BIT OF A DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURS IN THE COMING WEEK AS THE SUBSIDENCE EASES A
BUT, BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL WILL BE COUNTER
BALANCED BY A DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK,
KEEPING THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE TIDAL CYCLE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RISES TO
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH IN RESPONSE.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
BEFORE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS QUICKLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL QUICKLY LIFT BY
13Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING AT THE TERMINALS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO AREA
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 80 64 81 / 0 10 20 50
PENSACOLA 60 76 65 77 / 0 10 10 20
DESTIN 60 73 63 74 / 0 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 56 84 61 84 / 0 10 10 40
WAYNESBORO 60 83 63 81 / 0 10 10 60
CAMDEN 58 83 61 83 / 0 10 0 50
CRESTVIEW 55 81 60 82 / 0 10 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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