954
FXUS64 KMOB 190450
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BE STRONG, MAINLY SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A POWERFUL COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
RECORDS TODAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOWER
80'S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKEWISE BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60'S. FOR PERSPECTIVE, THESE FORECAST LOWS
ARE WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY SEE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK, MOSTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT IS
WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN DEVELOP DENSE SEA FOG THAT ADVECTS ONSHORE.
THE MAIN THING GOING AGAINST IT IS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE
TRYING TO KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK.
WATER TEMPERATURES OVERALL HAVE WARMED A LOT THE PAST WEEK OR SO,
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60'S FOR MOST SPOTS. MIDDLE TO UPPER 60'S DEW
POINTS OVERSPREADING THAT NORMALLY WOULD BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP DENSE SEA FOG, HOWEVER FACTORING IN THE CONTINUED MIXING
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS SHOULD KEEP FOG MOSTLY PATCHY.
OF COURSE, IF WE MANAGE TO DECOUPLE AND RELAX WINDS ENOUGH OVER
THE MARINE WATERS THEN DENSE SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AND PUSH
ONSHORE INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. AS LONG AS WE STAY MIXED, WE WON'T HAVE SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES, AND THE FORECAST PRESENTLY LEANS ON THE MIXED SCENARIO.
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN PRESENT ITSELF THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY BEING THE BETTER NIGHT WITH
STRONGEST SIGNAL ACROSS THE GUIDANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
SEA FOG THAT ADVECTS ONSHORE. FORECAST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT TRIES TO SAG INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HELP
TO TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE NORTH, WITH SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE CRASHING BACK SOUTHEAST AS A
COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE OVERALL DYNAMICS
AREN'T AMAZING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH AROUND 1,000J/KG OF CAPE AND
SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS TO SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT FOR A STRONG
STORM OR TWO. STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO A LOW RISK LATE SUNDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT
SHOWING A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
FLIRTING WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY.
ANY INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS MAY WARRANT A BUMP IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALABAMA
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.
AFTER WE GET PAST THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S AND LOWS IN THE
20'S AND 30'S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS GRADUALLY SETTLING IN ACROSS THE
AREA. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE PREVALENT ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO MVFR AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING AND VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
GUSTS DURING THE DAY MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 62 79 65 / 0 10 10 50
PENSACOLA 74 64 76 67 / 10 20 20 60
DESTIN 70 61 72 64 / 10 30 20 60
EVERGREEN 78 60 81 64 / 0 20 10 60
WAYNESBORO 78 61 81 64 / 0 10 10 60
CAMDEN 76 61 80 64 / 0 10 10 70
CRESTVIEW 76 60 80 64 / 10 20 20 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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