996
FXUS64 KMOB 152329
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
629 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SUPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO, IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND PRESCRIBED BURNS/WILDFIRES.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BRIEFLY RETREATS
SOUTHWARD AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AS THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE
FORCING. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING
TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO INLAND LOCATIONS
CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, FOG
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS. LOOKING AT TONIGHT, RATHER HIGH DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES
FROM SREF/HREF GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH SEVERAL PRESCRIBED BURNS/WILDFIRES ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA,
WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SUPER FOG AS HEAVY
SMOKE CAN ENHANCE THE FOG AND DRASTICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
NEAR ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPER FOG LOOKS TO
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE I-10 AND I-65 CORRIDOR, SUPER FOG COULD BRING
VISIBILITY IMPACTS TO A FEW OF OUR INTERIOR STATE HIGHWAYS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH AND PASS TROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT, ALONG WITH LIMITED FORCING, MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS (OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM) TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH FORCING QUICKLY LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
THE LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERS THE AREA, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH, ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SOUTH. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, LOWERING TO A LOW RISK FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS TO LIFR AND LOCALLY VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR BOTH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY UNDER AREAS OF DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PRE- DAWN INTO DAYBREAK HOURS. FOG SHOULD ERODE PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY MID MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
/96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR OUR ONGOING DROUGHT
SITUATION AS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THROUGH SATURDAY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE WORSENING DROUGHT, AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY BY SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA BY
MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW 20%
RANGE AND WINDS INCREASE. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 65 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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