887
FXUS64 KMOB 291801
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
101 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAZARDS
WILL INCLUDE INTENSE RAIN RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. FOR MARINE AREAS, WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR LOCAL AREA
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 TREND HIGHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING 103-110.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CIRCULATION LOCATED ROUGHLY 100
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW. THE SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 0% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS FEATURE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH A
10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW, THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY. AS
NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING ISSUES
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAINLY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA.
A WEAK UPPER TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SPANNING MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROF BECOMES
LESS DEFINED THOUGH SOME VESTIGES WILL LINGER GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. AS THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW MOVES SLOWLY OFF TO THE WEST, A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND PROMOTES A PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AM
EXPECTING A REPEAT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE FAVORED MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP
LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
THE SEA BREEZE.
HAVE GONE WITH MAINLY CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FURTHER INLAND THEN
TREND TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL TYPICALLY BE NEAR 100 ON SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO
102-107 FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER VALUES OF
103-110 POSSIBLE. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A LOW RISK FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-
65. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. ANY HEAVIER
BANDS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN, WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO IFR OR LOWER. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS,
OCCASIONALLY 10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAIN FOCUS ACROSS MARINE AREAS WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW GENERALLY
STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE 20-60NM ZONES, PROVIDING ENHANCED
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAIN RISKS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
SQUALLS, LIKELY REACHING 34KTS AT TIMES AND WATERSPOUTS. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
MODERATE (10-15KT) EASTERLY FLOW OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS WEAK LOW LIKELY DRIFTS WEST WITH TIME, ESTABLISHING A
GREATER SOUTHEASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW REGIME REMAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AT 10-15KTS. WAVES/SEAS RESPOND SLIGHTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE
BUT LACK OF DISTINCT LONG-DURATION FETCH WILL LIMIT ANY ENHANCED
WAVE ACTIVITY, BUT WILL BE ELEVATED/ENHANCED IN ANY LOCALLY STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 88 73 91 / 20 70 20 50
PENSACOLA 75 87 76 89 / 60 70 40 40
DESTIN 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 30 40
EVERGREEN 69 91 70 94 / 10 40 10 20
WAYNESBORO 71 92 70 95 / 0 30 10 20
CAMDEN 71 90 70 93 / 10 30 10 20
CRESTVIEW 70 90 70 93 / 20 60 10 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page