252  
FXUS64 KMOB 282057  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
357 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
SEABREEZE CONVECTION, RIGHT ON SCHEDULE PER THE CAM GUIDANCE,  
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE  
SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY, THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH  
MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND DCAPES AROUND 1300 J/KG WILL MEAN THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THUS  
THE RECENTLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 FOR THE MS  
COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST OF THE CWA, A MORE  
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE  
SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS DEVELOPING MCS IS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SE TX/SW LA. THE NET RESULT WILL BE  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS 02Z THIS EVENING AS THIS  
ENTIRE CLUSTER PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY  
THREATS WILL REMAIN FROM GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS BECOME EVEN MORE  
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
 
A RESPITE FROM CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR LIKELY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY  
AS THE MAIN OUTFLOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER,  
ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA AND  
ALLOW CONVECTION TO REGENERATE ON THURSDAY. SO EVEN WITH A MORE  
STABLE AIRMASS, THE DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME  
THIS AND REGENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ON  
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL  
EXIST AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON  
AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTENT OF HOW MUCH THE  
AIRMASS WILL BE WORKED OVER.  
 
ANOTHER LONGER CONVECTIVE RESPITE IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT  
AS MORE SUBSIDENT AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD  
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE.  
THE LAST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD  
OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE  
CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST A BROKEN  
LINE OF STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE  
MODEST TO HIGH INSTABILITY.  
 
A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO  
THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS IN THE NORTHERN CWA.  
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER  
60S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS  
RETURN FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
QUICKLY DEPARTING EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO  
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST  
OF THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE NORTH  
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY GET CLOSE TO KMOB  
DURING THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT  
EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A  
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST  
TO EAST. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE  
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY. A RESPITE FROM RAIN  
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE WEAKENING  
MCS PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS  
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WITH THE UPCOMING TAFS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS  
WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MIDNIGHT TO AROUND 12Z THURSDAY  
TIMEFRAME DUE TO THIS MCS AFFECTING THE AREA. IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS, LIKELY VFR, WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ON  
THURSDAY ONCE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD PASSES.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025  
 
GRADIENT MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH 1-2 FEET SEAS WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR  
BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
SEAS WILL REACH AROUND 3 FEET BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE  
STRONGER GRADIENT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME BY LATE SUNDAY AND  
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
CONVECTION WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 70 84 69 86 62 85 63 86 / 40 90 30 80 10 0 0 10  
PENSACOLA 73 85 74 87 67 84 68 85 / 40 80 50 80 30 0 0 10  
DESTIN 76 86 76 87 69 85 69 86 / 30 70 50 80 30 0 0 0  
EVERGREEN 68 86 67 85 60 85 59 87 / 30 80 40 80 10 0 0 0  
WAYNESBORO 67 83 67 82 57 82 59 86 / 50 90 20 70 10 0 0 10  
CAMDEN 68 83 66 82 59 81 59 84 / 40 80 40 70 10 0 0 0  
CRESTVIEW 70 88 68 88 62 86 59 89 / 30 80 40 90 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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