816
FXUS64 KMOB 241846
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CST WED FEB 24 2021
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE RIDGE AXIS IF NOW JUST OFF TO
THE EAST WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY
FOG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING, WHICH WAS MOST WIDESPREAD AROUND
THE MOBILE BAY AREA, HAS DISSIPATED. NO FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTED
FASHION (HANGING UP IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT) ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AND WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN POOLING UP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
THERE IS AGAIN A GOOD SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODELS AND
CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST IT TO BE A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THAT
TIME. WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW, AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. /12
AVIATION
24/18Z ISSUANCE...PATCHY FOG BURNED OFF EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY POSSIBLY REDUCED
TO IFR OR LOWER THRESHOLDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE DOWN NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH CALM TO VERY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (MAINLY NEAR THE COAST) LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. /12
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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