367
FXUS64 KMOB 021540
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING MAINLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE FOR THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAKLY
DEFINED WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROF OVER THE MARINE AREA. TAKING A
LOOK AT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, THE MARINE AREA IS SEEING SBCAPE'S
3500-4000 J/KG WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6.5 TO 7C/KM. WIND
SHEAR IS WEAK BUT WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY,
MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY OVER THESE AREAS, THE POTENTIAL OF
MORNING MARINE WATERSPOUTS EXIST. THE BETTER RISK OF THESE LOOKS
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE MS SOUND WHERE THE NON-SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER IS HIGHEST (3 TO 8 UNITS) THIS MORNING WHICH COMBINES
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THE TROF ADDS A FOCUS FOR ROTATING AIR CURRENTS. /10
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS STILL PERSISTING AND GENERALLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT
CONTINUE TO BE 100-107 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH HEAT INDICES
BEING JUST UNDER OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108, IT IS STILL VERY
HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE EAST
WHICH HAS AIDED IN DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE HEAT INDICES
CLOSER TO THE UPPER 90S NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
70S AND EVEN APPROACHING 80 ALONG THE COAST. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WE BECOME LESS DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND MOVING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE LOWER PWATS
FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW, REACHING 1.8-2.0" BY
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE OF A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT BUT VARYING DIURNAL WIND EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE NIGHT,
BECOMING MORE ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES PREVALENT FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 95 74 95 75 / 10 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 95 78 95 79 / 10 0 10 0
DESTIN 93 79 93 80 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 95 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 10
WAYNESBORO 96 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 0
CAMDEN 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 10 0
CRESTVIEW 96 73 97 74 / 0 0 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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