614
FXUS64 KMOB 281203
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
703 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 95-100 THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS BUMPING UP OUR
RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST RCMOS
PROBABILISTIC DATA. THIS INCREASE LIKELY WAS DUE TO FORECASTED
ONSHORE WINDS BEING STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO
FORM OVER OUR LOCAL MARINE WATERS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW HELPED TO
SPARK SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH IMPACTED COASTAL
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY; GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AN UPPER LONGWAVE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN RESIDING OVER THE U.S. WILL
BREAKDOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, THE CENTER OF AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE AREA FORMING OVER ALABAMA ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF
THE ALABAMA COAST BY DAYBREAK TODAY, AND FORCE A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL THEN MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN WESTWARD LEAVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MEANDER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT
COMPETES WITH DAILY SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS) CONFINED TO THE COAST TODAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR INLAND AREAS. THE
INLAND CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING, BUT SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW-
LEVEL PRESSURE AREA PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THAT AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN WILL
RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 90 DEGREES) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES TO RISE INTO
THE 103 TO 110 RANGE NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO AROUND 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS DIPPING DOWN TO MVFR THIS MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME. OVERALL, THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT COASTAL COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK, LIGHT WINDS
WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 71 89 72 / 40 10 40 30
PENSACOLA 86 74 85 75 / 60 30 50 50
DESTIN 85 74 84 75 / 60 50 60 60
EVERGREEN 89 68 89 69 / 40 20 40 10
WAYNESBORO 92 70 93 71 / 20 10 20 10
CAMDEN 91 70 89 71 / 30 20 30 10
CRESTVIEW 87 69 86 69 / 50 30 50 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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