828
FXUS64 KMOB 302000
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER OUR
MARINE AREA WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
SOUTH A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA-CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT EASTWARD AND
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN TROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE LARGE TROUGH EVOLVES
INTO A SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY-TILTED MEDIUM AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
AXIS REACHING THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOON
SATURDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO RESIDUAL ENERGY FROM THE
DECAYING SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. LAYER LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE
COAST REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AN INVERTED
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COASTLINE AND BECOMES
QUITE ELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHILE DEVELOPING AN INTERNAL LOW PRESSURE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DEPARTURES OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN REINFORCE THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL, WE
ARE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO
3 INCHES. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
REINFORCED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR VISBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES OVER
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS LIKELY MOVING OUT AROUND 00 UTC. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY
RISE TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME ACROSS THE
BAYS, SOUNDS AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE FRIDAY EVENING AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY TO REQUIRED STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 70 53 70 / 60 80 100 50
PENSACOLA 64 72 57 69 / 60 70 100 80
DESTIN 65 76 59 72 / 60 60 90 90
EVERGREEN 55 71 51 69 / 50 80 100 60
WAYNESBORO 54 64 50 69 / 50 80 100 30
CAMDEN 54 66 50 66 / 40 80 100 50
CRESTVIEW 60 77 53 71 / 50 70 90 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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