590
FXUS64 KMOB 061753 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY BE FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
06.12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REFLECTS A PERSISTENT WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS OF WHICH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS A STEADY
STREAM OF CLOUDS ALL THE WAY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN THE NEAR TERM, PASSAGE OF
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES SUPPORT BANDS OF LIGHT, TO PERHAPS
MODERATE RAINS MOVING THROUGH UNDER A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO AN
INDICATION THAT PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE IN THE NIGHT
TOO AS SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATES AN UPWARD TREND IN
PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE COAST. BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTIES, WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TO THE COAST AS WELL. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MAKING RAPID PASSAGE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN-FREE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60'S/LOWER 70'S
BY THURSDAY. COLDEST NIGHTS THIS PERIOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO FREEZING UP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. FROM THERE, LOWER TO MID 30'S TO
I-10 AND UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S COAST. TUESDAY NIGHT MID 30'S
INTERIOR TO LOWER TO MID 40'S COAST. LOWS GRADUALLY MODERATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN TO RAIN
CHANCES AHEAD OF IT. FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES TREND
DOWNWARD TO START THE NEW WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENT RISK LOOKS TO BE LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CREATED LOW END MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN WILL BRING LOCAL RISES IN CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES OFF. AM
EXPECTING OPERATIONS TO BE IMPACTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
VISBYS DROP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE EASIEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE NORTHERLY
FETCH SETUP, HIGHER SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE LOOK TO BE
DEVELOPING IN THE 20 TO 60 NM WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF AREA WATERS WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE MOBILE BAY AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS OUT 60 NM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 1 TO 2 FEET RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WEEK. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 46 66 48 58 / 20 30 50 0
PENSACOLA 51 64 51 59 / 50 40 60 10
DESTIN 51 65 52 62 / 60 50 60 10
EVERGREEN 41 62 44 58 / 10 20 50 0
WAYNESBORO 40 61 43 54 / 10 20 50 0
CAMDEN 39 59 42 54 / 0 20 50 0
CRESTVIEW 45 62 46 59 / 40 40 50 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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