636
FXUS64 KMOB 151818
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
118 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES,
BECOMING A HIGH RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WE HAVE RAINY DAYS CONTINUING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECASTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EXTENDS
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE COAST. HEAT WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TO END THE WEEK.
..THROUGH TUESDAY
WE CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH THE GULF COAST AT THE BASE. AT THE SURFACE, A SLOWLY MOVING
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT IS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND TRAINING
PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. THE 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY IMPRESSIVE 2.41"
PWAT, EXCEEDING THE DAILY MAX FROM CLIMATOLOGY. THIS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK. WPC
HAS PLACED THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, AND NEARLY ALL THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TOMORROW.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION SHOWS 2-3 INCHES OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. HREF 6 HOUR LPMM SHOWS 3-5.5 INCHES OVER SOME
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BOTH THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR
LOCATIONS OF TRAINING CONVECTION. HIGHER END PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COULD BE REALIZED WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING CAN SET UP. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS AND 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
BEING GENERALLY 3+ INCHES FOR NEARLY ALL THE CWA, FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN THE NEAR TERM SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. SS/97
..THROUGH SUNDAY
A COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS TAKING ON
A MORE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OFF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA AND BRINGS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MS/AL BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF ORIENTED NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN STATES
UPPER TROF PATTERN. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROF, WHICH MAY HAVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRAJECTORY/EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW PAST
THIS POINT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN DISSIPATES WITH A RETURN FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY.
WENT WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN, THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. AM EXPECTING
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND THE POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2.0-4.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOIL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY MOIST
BY WEDNESDAY, AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL POSE A RISK OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE EXPECTED. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING FOR MOST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.
ON TOP OF THE FLOODING RISKS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE 850 MB JET INCREASING TO
30-40 KNOTS AND MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION, P-ETSS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WATER LEVELS COULD APPROACH
1.7 FT MHHW AROUND MOBILE BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND AROUND 2 FT
MHHW ON THURSDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOWER
VALUES OF NEAR 1-1.5 FT MHHW ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE SUCH AS
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THESE TIME PERIODS FOR POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. /29 /98 /97
BEACH FORECAST - THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS WE HAVE DOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW. RCMOS
SHOWS RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING RAPIDLY TO HIGH FOR OUR BEACHES ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. NWPS ALSO SHOWS INCREASING
WAVE ACTION TO 4-6 FEET BY MIDWEEK WHICH MAY NEED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN THE COMING DAYS. SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT AREA
TAF SITES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY TREND TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 81 72 86 / 70 90 70 80
PENSACOLA 76 85 76 87 / 60 90 80 80
DESTIN 77 86 76 86 / 50 80 80 80
EVERGREEN 70 78 69 85 / 80 100 80 90
WAYNESBORO 70 76 70 85 / 90 90 40 80
CAMDEN 69 76 68 84 / 90 100 60 80
CRESTVIEW 72 82 71 85 / 60 90 80 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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