110
FXUS64 KMOB 030816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A COOL, DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE LOCAL AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT,
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.
THESE LOWS ARE ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY. IN FACT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MORNING'S LOW
REACHES/BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD LOW FOR OUR KMOB CLIMATE SITE (MAY
3RD RECORD LOW: 47). NBM PROBABILITIES GIVE A ROUGHLY 30-40%
CHANCE OF REACHING THIS RECORD, BUT CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE
TENDS TO HAVE A WARM BIAS IN THESE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIMES, I WOULD ARGUE THAT OVERALL CHANCES ARE ACTUALLY A BIT
HIGHER. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, A SUNNY, MILD DAY IS IN STORE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES IN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
OVER THE GULF. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY STARTS TO ADVECT
BACK IN DUE TO THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DEEP- LAYER RIDGING WILL LIKELY KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS BY TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S,
AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES ON WEDNESDAY
(PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT) AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING ALOFT, NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH SOUTHERN-STREAM
TROUGHING PUSHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THEY PHASE, A
DIFFLUENT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO SPARK SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR OUR LOCAL
AREA, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO INCREASE DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE MAY
START TO RETREAT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE BASE OF THE NEWLY-FORMED LONGWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH, LEADING TO GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS FOR OUR
AREA. THIS, ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOULD ALLOW
FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPSTREAM STORMS SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD.
WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MACHINE
LEARNING AND CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BROAD
AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, INCLUDING OVER
PORTIONS OF OUR LOCAL AREA (HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH). LOOKING AT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT,
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50-60 KNOTS WILL LIKELY BE
PRESENT AS THE UPPER JET PASSES OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING IN LOW 70 DEW POINTS INTO THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AT FACE VALUE, THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SEEM RATHER
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, THE OVERALL
SETUP IS STILL RATHER QUESTIONABLE/CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
TO START, THE BEST DIFFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE OF A 'GLANCING BLOW' TO OUR
AREA. THIS DIFFLUENCE WILL ALSO QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER JET EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE ONGOING STORMS AS THEY APPROACH OUR LOCAL
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, EVEN WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS, HEIGHT
ANOMALIES FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
MUCH OF OUR AREA, SUGGESTING THAT THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE MAY STILL BE PRESENT. LOOKING AT MODELED SOUNDINGS, A WEAK
SUBSIDENT LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY HELP TO KEEP US CAPPED AND
LEAD TO POOR LAPSE RATES, AND WITH STORMS PUSHING THROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OVERALL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE, AT THIS POINT, AM THINKING THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD POSE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT AS THEY FIRST ENTER THE AREA, HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON A) HOW QUICK THE STORMS
MOVE IN, B) WHERE THE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED, AND C) HOW STRONG
THE RIDGE IS/ARE WE STILL CAPPED. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A D5 SLIGHT
RISK IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK IN FOR
LATE WEEK.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, BECOMING A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK BY MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 77 56 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 76 59 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 77 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 76 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 74 48 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ670-675.
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