993
FXUS64 KMOB 121749
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1249 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE, ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE ONLY FEATURE THAT DOES ATTEMPT TO PASS NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA IS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT,
ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INLAND. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO INLAND LOCATIONS
CRACK THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY LATE WEEK. LOWS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S, TRENDING CLOSER TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.
WITH STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERALL DENSE FOG COVERAGE RATHER PATCHY ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS MAY HELP
TO LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. THIS INCREASED POTENTIAL
CAN BE SEEN BY MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE LATEST SREF/HREF
GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AT 17Z, VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AM EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. GENERAL IFR
VISBYS, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SOME TAF SITES MAY
BE AFFECTED. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING, TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY. /96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR OUR ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION
AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA, THE WORSENING DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 63 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 64 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 54 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 56 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 54 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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