202
FXUS64 KMOB 131632
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING EASTERLY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH CONDITIONS POSING A HAZARD
TO SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NEAR-RECORD HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOLKS THAT REMAIN WITHOUT POWER IN THE WAKE OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS
GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING STORM DAMAGE CLEANUP WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCESS TO A/C. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND
TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER!
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PRECEDED
BY THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOBILE AND PENSACOLA:
THIS AFTERNOON (10/13):
MOBILE 89, RECORD 92
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 90
WEDNESDAY (10/14):
MOBILE 88, RECORD 90
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 89
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE,
TONIGHT FOR SIMILAR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH
MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIT OR MISS ON DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. WHILE I AM HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THE
MOMENT, IT IS POSSIBLE WE NEED THEM LATER THIS EVENING IF
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN INCREASE.
ONCE WE GET INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WE SEE A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A TASTE OF
FALL ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER
60'S AND LOWER 70'S FOR ALL LOCATIONS, GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INTO
THE UPPER 70'S BY MONDAY FOR HIGHS. LOWS TANK AS WELL, WITH LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50'S FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40'S OVER THE
INTERIOR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWER TO MIDDLE 50'S ELSEWHERE. THE
FRONT WILL HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AROUND 25 TO 35MPH,
HIGHEST NEARER THE COAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT, SO
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE JUST
OUTSIDE THE FORECAST PERIOD, LATEST RCMOS PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RISK WILL LIKELY RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, GOING FROM A LOW RISK THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY TO A HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY EVENING. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS, POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MOST THE AREA RETURNING BACK TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A DIURNAL FLOW CYCLE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 67 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 69 86 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 59 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 58 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 59 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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