461
FXUS64 KMOB 161712
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1112 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S EXPECTED.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
- WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF THROUGH MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
MEXICO, THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER, DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GETS PUSHED EAST OF
THE REGION, WITH A MOISTURE INCREASING FLOW OFF THE GULF SETTING
UP BEGINNING MID WEEK. PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 0.15"
AT THIS TIME RISE TO AROUND 1.5" BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
ISENTROPIC RAIN BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR RUMBLERS TO MIX IN. AT THIS POINT, GUIDANCE IS PAINTING
THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER AREAS WEST OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
STATE LINE OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST, WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPE TOPPING OUT AROUND 1000J/KG. LIMITED BY RATHER MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH. WIND SHEAR TOPS OUT
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS THURSDAY, WITH 0-1KM HELICITIES TOPPING
OUT AROUND 200M^2/S^2, ALBEIT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BETTER
INSTABILITY. THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT QUITE LINING UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, LIMITING THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR, THOUGH. A POST SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A MAINLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES QUICKLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING INTO THE COMING
WEEK.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 30S RETURN TO
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCALITIES WELL
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN. LOW
TEMPERATURES THEN RISE INTO 50S FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEE THE SAME ROLLER COAST, WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED
TUESDAY RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEE A DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FRIDAY, BUT
QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AT 5 KNOTS TODAY TURN NORTHEAST AROUND
5 KNOTS TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES. WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 44 63 54 71 / 0 20 30 70
PENSACOLA 48 66 59 70 / 0 10 30 60
DESTIN 50 66 58 69 / 0 10 20 60
EVERGREEN 36 66 48 71 / 0 10 20 60
WAYNESBORO 37 61 49 69 / 0 20 20 70
CAMDEN 34 61 46 68 / 0 10 10 70
CRESTVIEW 38 66 50 70 / 0 10 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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