875
FXUS64 KMOB 131957
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A BROAD UPPER LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
MEANWHILE, THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT RESULTED IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST THIS
MORNING HAS DRIFTED WELL OFFSHORE, LEAVING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL, WITH A COUPLE SPOTS
REMAINING IN THE 70S. BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY
HAVE BEEN LIMITED OVER LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS DECREASED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84, WHERE SOME DESTABILIZATION CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS OCCURRING. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A
FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT REDEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST
AND SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IN PLACE.
BY TUESDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING WESTWARD
FROM CENTRAL AL INTO MS AND THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE. COMPARED TO TODAY, LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS INLAND ARES, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH LINGERING HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WILL SUPPORT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR,
WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE
AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TRAINING OR SLOW-MOVING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE NOTICEABLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST) AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
WESTWARD AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. HOTTER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 107 RANGE.
PREDICTABILITY DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASED MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST AND A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAR
WEST THIS SYSTEM ULTIMATELY TRACKS, BUT IT BEARS WATCHING AS IT
COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. JGC/98
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING, TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SEAS 3 TO
5 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WILL SETTLE TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY
TUESDAY, AND REMAINING GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY MORNING. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 20 10
PENSACOLA 74 87 75 91 / 30 40 50 20
DESTIN 76 87 77 89 / 60 60 50 20
EVERGREEN 69 86 69 90 / 30 80 40 30
WAYNESBORO 71 85 70 89 / 50 70 40 30
CAMDEN 70 83 69 87 / 70 80 60 40
CRESTVIEW 70 87 70 91 / 30 70 40 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
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