554
FXUS64 KMOB 160612
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES, BECOMING A
HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK LIES AHEAD AS OUR REGION LIES AT THE BASE
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST
INTO MIDWEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN, HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY, FOLLOWED BY THE
MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD
MIDWEEK, AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE LESSONING TO A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TODAY. THIS SURFACE LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT EFFECT OUR AREA. A CONTINUOUS FETCH
OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS MOSTLY
RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...
WE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TODAY. THE SLIGHT RISK REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MARGINAL RISK
ELSEWHERE, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK RETURNING THURSDAY ACROSS
NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO EXPANDED
EASTWARD IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS INLAND AREAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLES. INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR
WHERE BANDING AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR.
OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS...
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. A STRONG
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN 850 MB
RESULTING IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION, MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY REACH AS HIGH AS 2500J/KG.
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, P-ETSS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WATER LEVELS COULD
APPROACH 1.7 FT MHHW AROUND MOBILE BAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOWER VALUES OF
NEAR 1-1.5 FT MHHW ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE SUCH AS DAUPHIN ISLAND
AND ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THESE TIME PERIODS FOR POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FLOW OVER A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER
THE AREA. ADD IN PERIODS OF RAIN, IMPACTS TO OPERATIONS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. /16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY TREND TO A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 72 86 78 / 90 70 70 60
PENSACOLA 84 76 87 81 / 90 80 70 40
DESTIN 86 76 86 80 / 90 80 70 40
EVERGREEN 78 70 86 75 / 100 70 70 40
WAYNESBORO 77 70 87 75 / 100 30 60 60
CAMDEN 76 69 85 74 / 100 50 70 40
CRESTVIEW 82 71 86 77 / 90 80 80 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page