513
FXUS64 KMOB 012026
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE
AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS MOST
LIKELY NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ACROSS THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION,
WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DECAYING SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. LAYER LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PERSIST IN
THE LOW LEVELS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH LATE EVENING. AN INVERTED LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GULF TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES. THE DEPARTURES OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR EAST WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND
THEN REINFORCE THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL, WE ARE EXPECTING A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE REINFORCED
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE ALONG THE FLORIDA BEACHES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO A LOW RISK
ON SUNDAY. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BECOMING IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POCKETS
OF IFR VISBYS OCCURRING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. SOME THUNDER MAY
OCCUR ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS RAIN SUBSIDES AROUND
SUNRISE AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING AND
HAZARD SEAS FOR ALL SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE WATERS, ESPECIALLY
FROM 20NM TO 60NM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
BE HIGHER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 72 47 75 / 100 40 0 0
PENSACOLA 56 70 52 74 / 100 70 0 0
DESTIN 59 72 54 75 / 100 80 0 0
EVERGREEN 51 71 43 76 / 100 40 0 0
WAYNESBORO 50 70 44 74 / 100 20 0 0
CAMDEN 50 69 44 71 / 100 40 0 0
CRESTVIEW 53 71 43 77 / 100 70 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT SATURDAY
FOR GMZ633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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