471  
FXUS64 KMOB 200032  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
732 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
20/00Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.06Z AT TAF  
SITES, BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OUT OVER THE  
GULF WATERS AS WELL. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH  
20.13Z WITH INTERMITTENT IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OCNL  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OF 6 TO 8  
KTS SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE TX COAST  
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SAT  
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROF DIGGING SOUTH OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS SHIFTING EAST, COMBINED WITH  
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
UPPER TROF TO THE NORTH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY  
AND SE CONUS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN A WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA  
FROM THE NORTH BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT  
EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES, MOSTLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, TO OCCUR  
MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON SAT. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS  
PATTERN ON SAT SUGGESTING MOSTLY MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH  
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. LIMITED  
VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO NOTED THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON SUGGESTING  
MOSTLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DO OCCUR. WITH ANTECEDENT  
CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE NOW AND LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH  
SAT THE THREAT FOR FLOODING OR NUISANCE FLOODING REMAINS LOW TO  
NIL. FOR TONIGHT WE WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL LOCATIONS IN  
THE FORECAST AREA AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SAT  
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S FOR  
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE  
COAST. HIGHS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S  
FURTHER SOUTH, STRETCHING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE  
 
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE LARGE  
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY AS A DOME OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. CLEARING SKIES AND COOL  
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND IN  
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RETURN  
TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM PULLS EASTWARD, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON  
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DIP TO  
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE COAST,  
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH LOWS AROUND 40 DEGREES  
INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN  
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES  
(EJECTED FROM AN UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES) WHICH  
MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES, AN  
INVERTED SURFACE TROF DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS COAST/WESTERN GULF  
IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SURFACE LOW WHICH ADVANCES EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OR INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL  
STATES LATER IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS  
SURFACE LOW IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, THE OVERALL PATTERN AT LEAST  
SUPPORTS A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. FOR NOW, WILL  
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THEN SLIGHT  
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND HAVE  
GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE  
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. /22  
 
MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT  
FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW  
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY  
EARLY SAT NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE  
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, THEN BECOME NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH SUN EVENING. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED  
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE WAKE OF FRONT BY  
EARLY SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED  
BY EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MON. 32/EE  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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