535
FXUS64 KMOB 171127
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT THE AREA.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO, MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION STREAMS NORTH
OVER AREA WATERS. SO FAR, NOTHING HAS GOTTEN ROWDY, BUT CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. THE CURRENT PACKAGE IS ON TRACK, WITH NO UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF IMPACTFUL HAZARDS TO WRITE ABOUT IN THIS
ATYPICAL MID-JUNE PATTERN! WE REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE INCREASING
FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH
RAIN RATES DOUSE THE AREA, AND INCREASING MARINE/SURF/MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS STARTING TONIGHT TO TACK ON TO THE
ONGOING HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO MARGINAL
SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A 'MINI-SPINNY' (BRIEF
TORNADO) OR TWO. ON TOP OF THAT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT
INDICES) COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES IN SPOTS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND LIKELY HIGHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAVY RAINFALL...
THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFT EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION IN A VERY SOUPY
ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.5 INCHES. THE
ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT RISK RETURNING ON
FRIDAY, AND MERE MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
WITH THE SAME MESSAGING AS THE TUESDAY SHIFT WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 4-7 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS UP TO 10+ INCHES WHERE
BANDING AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR (UP TO 3-4 INCHES/HOUR). NEARLY ALL OF
OUR ZONES SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH A FLOODING THREAT, BUT THE EXACT
LOCATIONS HIT THE HARDEST IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME.
THE SCARY PART IS THAT SOME OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF UP TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING AREA. WE WILL MONITOR
THE TRENDS AS THE LATEST RUNS COME IN.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. A STRONG
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN 850 MB JET
RESULTING IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION, MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY REACH AS HIGH AS 2500J/KG, AND
AND WE EXPECT AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM SRH TO BE PRESENT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANY STORMS WITHIN AN EASTWARD MOVING QLCS
OR ANY DISCRETE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE TO POSE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. CURRENTLY THE
ANTICIPATED TIMING WOULD BE FROM MID-MORNING THURSDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH MLCAPE VALUES WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THAT DAY.
HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING...
THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS STARTING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
BEACH CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN
PLACE, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE SURF ZONE FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL 6PM FRIDAY. AS FAR AS COASTAL FLOODING, MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUR COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED, THE TIMING OF THE TIDAL CYCLE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGH SURF MAY PROMOTE OVERWASH INTO SOME OF OUR
TROUBLE SPOTS SUCH AS FORT PICKENS AND DAUPHIN ISLAND, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SOME LOCALIZED MINOR INUNDATION. P-ETSS GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT WATER LEVELS COULD APPROACH 1.7 FT MHHW IN PARTS OF
MOBILE BAY AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY AND 2 FT MHHW AROUND NOON
THURSDAY. WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
UNTIL OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASES. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH GENERAL MVFR/VFR OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN OR WITH NO RAIN, LOW END MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
IMPACTS TO OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED. GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, VARIABLE NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND TO A MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 76 85 77 / 70 90 100 80
PENSACOLA 87 79 86 80 / 90 60 90 70
DESTIN 87 79 86 80 / 80 60 90 70
EVERGREEN 85 74 82 74 / 70 70 100 90
WAYNESBORO 85 73 83 74 / 70 80 100 80
CAMDEN 84 73 80 72 / 70 60 100 90
CRESTVIEW 86 75 83 76 / 80 60 90 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.
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