725
FXUS64 KMOB 290517
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS THROUGH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY
JUST BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINATELY WEST OF I-65. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS A MUCH LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW
THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. SUNDAY'S RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE UP IN THE AIR AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE LOOK TO BE INBETWEEN
WAVES ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MORE
ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED. FINALLY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING A WEAK "COOL" FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL QUICKLY
DRY OUT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RATHER STOUT
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NOSING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. DESPITE BEING UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST STORM ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SEVERE STORMS...THERE ARE A FEW PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT CATCH OUR EYES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE VERY LOW
END GEE WHIZ GULF COAST SPECIAL KIND OF DAYS. WHILE NEITHER DAY
SCREAMS SEVERE STORMS AT US, THEY DO HAVE SOME INTERESTING
ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES THAT WE HAVE CERTAINLY SEEN BEFORE. DURING
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS, AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP GIVEN A RATHER MOIST PROFILE. WIND SHEAR IS NOT
INCREDIBLE; HOWEVER, RATHER WEAK STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CURVED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CERTAINLY HINT AT A GULF COAST SPECIAL, THE
PESKY MINI-SPINNY. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THIS SETUP, THE
QUESTION IS DO WE EVEN HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO GET ANY TRUE DEEP
CONVECTION GOING. GIVEN THE JUST OVERALL LACK OF COVERAGE THE
POTENTIAL IS LOW AND THATS BEING GENEROUS; HOWEVER, IT IS THE GULF
COAST AND WE KNOW HOW THESE THINGS GO. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY
SURPRISED IF SOMEWHERE GETS SOME RANDOM QUICK TORNADO. VERY LOW
END THREAT IF ANY BUT ENOUGH TO CATCH OUR EYE.
THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURS ON MONDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL HERE IS NOT AN SLAM DUNK EVENT AND HAS BIT OF A
INTERESTING EVOLUTION AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RATHER STRUNG OUT AND LIFTING OUT TO OUR NORTH
WHICH MAY GIVE US MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW RATHER THAN A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
COUPLED WITH SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CURVED
HODOGRAPH COULD SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A
TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LINE OF STORMS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVEN THE GLANCING BLOW NATURE OF THE UPPER JET, WE DO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCES TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 WITH LOWER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR. WE DO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING HOWEVER AS THE
SYSTEM HAS SEEMED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE GUIDANCE. A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE INSTABILITY AS WE APPROACH
AFTERNOON LEADING TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
BEACH HAZARDS... INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SURF AT OUR AREA BEACHES. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET WHICH IS JUST BELOW OUR HIGH SURF CRITERIA;
HOWEVER, SURF OF THIS HEIGHT IS STILL DANGEROUS AND FOLKS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ALL OFFICIAL GUIDANCE BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER
THIS WEEKEND. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS LOWERING
TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE
THEN ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A BIT HIGHER NEAR
THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING WAVES AND SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (BOTH WIND AND SEAS) ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
NORTHERLY FLOW BRIEFLY DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN ONSHORE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 80 68 81 56 79 64 82 / 60 50 20 80 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 66 76 69 78 60 76 67 78 / 50 50 10 80 20 10 0 0
DESTIN 66 75 69 76 62 76 67 77 / 50 50 10 80 20 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 63 80 66 80 52 82 60 86 / 50 60 20 90 20 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 63 83 67 81 49 81 62 87 / 60 60 50 80 20 10 0 10
CAMDEN 63 81 66 78 49 79 61 85 / 50 70 30 90 20 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 63 79 65 81 54 82 60 84 / 50 50 10 80 20 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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