113
FXUS64 KMOB 100439
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
AVIATION
06Z ISSUANCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT, THEN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5
TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022/
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A SOUPY AIRMASS THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES BOUNCING AROUND IN THE 1.9"-
2.2" RANGE), A WET FORECAST CONTINUES. THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT, THEN PROPAGATING
INLAND IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED, WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
PROVIDING LITTLE EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, WITH MLCAPES
RISING INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE, MAINLY OVER AREAS INLAND THAT
SEE SOME DECENT HEATING. DCAPES WILL BE MARGINAL, GENERALLY 500-
700J/KG. THE BIGGEST WORRY WILL BE RAIN AND POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES.
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS, LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2"-3" IN SHORT ORDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. PONDING TO LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
LIKELY, MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND ONE LAYER INLAND.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH TEMPERATURE MORE BELOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST DUE TO CONVECTION CUTTING OFF ANY HEATING EARLIER IN
THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK, WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE COMBINING WITH SWELL FROM A MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
/16
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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