465
FXUS64 KMOB 271157
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
657 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 98-103 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO
AROUND 103-110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS STARTING TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PWATS
(2.0+ INCHES), PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, AND LITTLE SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT SLOW-MOVING, HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO TRAIN OR SIT OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY, WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
SOUTHERN BASE NOW REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.1" WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GENERALIZED WIDESPREAD LOWER-LEVEL PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
DOMINATE FEATURES AS THE MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO WHERE A
POTENTIAL WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SET UP. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A
SLIGHT LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE ARE STILL FORECASTING A
DAILY OCCURRING OF MAINLY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POISED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA OR IF RAINFALL
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO, MS TO CRESTVIEW, FL, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA ZONES ON
FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 90 DEGREES) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND
TO AROUND 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS, AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS NEAR
STORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 71 88 71 / 70 50 50 20
PENSACOLA 89 74 87 74 / 70 50 60 40
DESTIN 88 75 86 75 / 50 50 70 30
EVERGREEN 90 70 89 69 / 80 50 60 20
WAYNESBORO 90 71 92 69 / 80 40 40 10
CAMDEN 89 71 89 70 / 60 50 50 10
CRESTVIEW 91 70 88 69 / 70 40 70 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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