608
FXUS64 KMOB 072131 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
431 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- HURRICANE/STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXPANDED INLAND.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON LATE FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM ISAIAS INCLUDING HIGH WINDS, HIGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, STORM
SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND TORNADOES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STATUS
EARLY THURSDAY AM, APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY AS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE. WITH THE WIND FIELD
EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS ISAIAS GAINS LATITUDE, CHANCES OF TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS PENETRATING WELL INLAND ARE
ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. PUBLIC ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THESE HEADLINES. /10
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
NEAR TERM WEATHER IS QUITE BENIGN WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A QUASI-STAIONARY
FRONT DRAPED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH PWAT'S ~ 1.0 TO 1.3" ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS EQUATES TO A RAIN-FREE PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
SOUTHWEST GULF WHERE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL CENTERS OF THE STORM APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WHICH MAY PORTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IMPACTS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM, NHC ISSUED HURRICANE/STORM SURGE
WATCHES OVER OUR ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE COAST ON THE 07.15Z
ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ISAIAS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE, IT'S BEST TO NOT FOCUS ON SAID
TRACK AS HIGH IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY
RAINS WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH, LIFE-
THREATENING SURF, COASTAL FLOODING FROM SURGE, AND DANGEROUS TO
POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF TORNADOES
ALONG AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NWS MOBILE AND FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAIAS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE OCTOBER LIKE, DRY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG WITH A DRIER DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENT
SETUP. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A FEW TO SCATTERED CU AT 3 TO 5 KFT EMBEDDED IN AN ESTABLISHED
EAST NORTHEAST FLOW, THAT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS,
EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVES EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF TODAY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DETERIORATE AND SEAS BECOME VERY HIGH AT
THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK AS ISAIAS APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 87 66 82 / 0 0 10 60
PENSACOLA 70 85 69 80 / 0 0 10 70
DESTIN 70 85 70 81 / 0 0 20 70
EVERGREEN 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 40
WAYNESBORO 60 88 61 84 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN 57 88 59 84 / 0 0 0 30
CRESTVIEW 64 85 63 79 / 0 0 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALZ052>055-057-058.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALZ056-059-060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ076-079.
GM...HURRICANE WATCH FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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