575
FXUS64 KMOB 160531
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING IN THE COMING WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGHS AND LOWS
TREND WARMER, THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILDS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BEFORE THE BUILDING RIDGE DEFLECTS
THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, JOINING AND FORMING A
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED,
BRINGING INCREASING GULF MOISTURE INLAND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BETTER ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN A BAND OF DRIER AIR
(PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 1" OR LESS) MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY. THE EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WEST
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY, ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CAMS ARE ADVERTISING A FEW
RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE MOVES INLAND.
TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING
TO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
TUESDAY ON, AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST DEAMPLIFIES INTO MID
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASS OVER/NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SHIFTS NORTH A BIT AND WEAKENS, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENING, ALLOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
MID WEEK IN RESPONSE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ENOUGH FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY MID
WEEK, WITH A BIT OF A DROP NORTHWEST OF I-65 THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND A SMALL TIDAL RANGE WILL KEEP ANY SWELL ON AREA BEACHES LOW
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED. ONSHORE
FLOW ON AREA BEACHES BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
THE COMING WEEK. COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING TIDAL RANGE, A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS TUESDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO LIFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
AREAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT RISE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAY.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 67 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 68 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 57 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 59 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 20
CAMDEN 59 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 60 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page