041
FXUS64 KMOB 021905
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
- HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE. CURRENT PWATS ARE AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND RISE TO AROUND 2.2-
2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WHERE PWATS FURTHER CLIMB
TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS MOISTURE IS QUITE
ANOMALOUS BEING WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.95 INCHES) AND IS
EVEN CLOSE TO THE DAILY MAX OF 2.54 INCHES BASED ON SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. WITH PWATS THIS HIGH, THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE
CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED. THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15,000+FT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WITH RAINFALL RATES TOPPING OUT AT 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS. CAMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PINPOINT AREAS ALONG THE COAST FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HREF 6-HOUR LPMMS SHOW SOME BULLS-EYES OF AROUND 4-6 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE FORECASTING PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 4-
6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY AND SOME OF OUR FAR NORTHERN REACHES COULD
ONLY RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST COULD RECEIVE UP TO 7-10 INCHES WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND HIGHER FFG THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE
IT IS VERY MOIST AND RAINY, TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE KEEPS HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S.
THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (2+ INCH PWATS) LASTS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AT
LEAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AND
DECREASES RAIN CHANCES AROUND TUESDAY AND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL BE VERY WELCOMED
AFTER THIS WET PERIOD. THE FRONT DOES COME WITH INCREASING WINDS
WHICH WILL HAVE MARINE WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS, HIGHER WAVE
HEIGHTS, AND AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK AGAIN.
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN SATURDAY MORNING
AND POTENTIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCAL TIDE GAUGES SHOWED VERY CLOSE
OR EXCEEDED THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND A SIMILAR SETUP LOOKS TO BE
TRUE FOR SATURDAY MORNING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WHEN THE HIGH
TIDE COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MOST AREAS APPROACH OR
EQUAL OUR 2.0 FEET MHHW THRESHOLD (2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND)
SO WE OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS
FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM SATURDAY. EXPECT SOME MINOR INUNDATION FOR
TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT PICKENS AND
SPLASHOVER ON THE CAUSEWAY.
..BEACH FORECAST
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ALL AREA BEACHES FLYING RED
FLAGS TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR ALL
BEACHES IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE
HIGH RISK CONTINUES TO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DROPS TO A MODERATE THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
SURF UP TO 3-4 FEET CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND BY
MID WEEK MAY FURTHER INCREASE TOWARDS HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MAIN IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PERIODS/SQUALLS OF SHRA/TSRA INTRODUCING PERIODIC LOWER VIS/CIGS
REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TIMES. TIMED BEST APPROXIMATED WINDOWS
FOR AREA TAF SITES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ALREADY CONTINUING TO
IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO BREEZY MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS A TIMES, HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS RELAX BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOME STRONG AND
TURN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WE GET STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BUMP TO 5-8 FEET POSSIBLE IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASING WINDS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 82 71 82 / 60 90 80 90
PENSACOLA 75 83 74 82 / 60 90 80 100
DESTIN 75 84 74 83 / 50 90 80 100
EVERGREEN 68 85 68 80 / 20 70 80 90
WAYNESBORO 69 84 69 79 / 20 70 80 90
CAMDEN 69 87 69 78 / 20 50 80 90
CRESTVIEW 69 84 70 80 / 20 90 80 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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