467
FXUS64 KMOB 021113
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
513 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA COULD CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY, WITH A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- A LOW END THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE FROM NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE WARMUP CONTINUES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 70'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 1,000 TO 1,500J/KG RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED LESS AMPED WITH
THE TROUGH, AND WEAKER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS ALLOWING FOR
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN MORE VEERED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL LIKELY TEMPER ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH STORMS, HOWEVER LONG,
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WOULD BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WE RETURN TO A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO MID-WEEK. WE COOL DOWN
TEMPORARILY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60'S BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70'S EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30'S
TO LOWER 40'S, BUT LIKEWISE FOLLOW THE WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50'S BY MID WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS
MORNING QUICKLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING TO A HIGH RISK. THE HIGH
RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE
RISK SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOW RISK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING LOW DROPS TO LOW/MID MVFR LEVELS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
STRENGTHEN TO A MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS FROM 6 PM
TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY, AND FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY THEN BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 75 48 65 / 60 70 0 0
PENSACOLA 64 74 51 65 / 70 90 10 0
DESTIN 65 71 51 65 / 60 90 20 0
EVERGREEN 60 73 44 64 / 70 80 0 0
WAYNESBORO 60 71 45 62 / 50 40 0 0
CAMDEN 58 70 43 60 / 70 70 0 0
CRESTVIEW 60 74 46 67 / 70 90 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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