068
FXUS64 KMOB 200525
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY
SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR RECORDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOWER
80'S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKEWISE BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60'S. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO
WHAT WE EXPECT FOR AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR, RUNNING NEARLY
20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN FORECAST HEADACHE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE WITH RESPECT TO
SEA FOG AND ITS PROPENSITY TO ADVECT ONSHORE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT,
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. IT'S UNFORTUNATELY NOT QUITE AS SIMPLE AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO TEMPORARILY LIFT
OUT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF
WINDS RELAX ENOUGH THERE MAY BE A WINDOW AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THAT SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE SEA FOG WHICH
COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO GO WITH ANY ADVISORIES, HOWEVER TRENDS IN FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED. WE FACE A SIMILAR
SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS
MAY STAY SOMEWHAT MORE ELEVATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THIS MOVES IN, WE MAY SEE A CASE WHERE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL EITHER LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OR
SERVE AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND STARTS TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SATURDAY MAY BE A SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING DAY AS AMPLE INSTABILITY BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH THE HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY SITTING
AROUND 1,000 J/KG AND 90TH PERCENTILE REACHING 1,500 J/KG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ADDITIONAL EXPERIMENTAL CAMS ARE EVEN
HINTING AT UPWARDS OF 2,000J/KG BUILDING IN PRIOR TO THE FRONT
BEGINNING ITS PUSH SOUTH. THIS COUPLED WITH 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL HELP TO GENERATE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE SHEAR IS GENERALLY STRAIGHT
LINE, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS AND MESSY STORM MODE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. DESPITE
THIS, SOME LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON CAM
GUIDANCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH AROUND 100 TO 150
M2/S2 OF LOW LEVEL SRH. THIS COULD PROMOTE A LOW END THREAT FOR
TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY IF STORM MODE CAN BEHAVE AND REMAIN ROOTED
ON THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, THE THREAT REMAINS OVERALL MARGINAL
GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO A LOW RISK LATE SUNDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST IS NOT
SHOWING A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
FLIRTING WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY.
ANY INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS MAY WARRANT A BUMP IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALABAMA
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.
AFTER WE GET PAST THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50'S AND LOWS IN THE
20'S AND 30'S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR BY LATE
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT, AND SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR INTO FRIDAY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE A
LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AND CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO
LIFT TO NEAR VFR CONDITIONS AROUND NOON. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER
BACK TO IFR/MVFR LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OFFSHORE
FLOW DIMINISHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME, AND A GALE WATCH
MAY BE NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE ON THE OCCURRENCE OF
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 65 80 65 / 10 30 40 40
PENSACOLA 76 67 78 66 / 20 30 50 50
DESTIN 73 63 73 64 / 30 40 50 60
EVERGREEN 83 65 79 64 / 10 40 50 50
WAYNESBORO 81 63 76 64 / 10 50 40 50
CAMDEN 80 63 76 63 / 10 50 50 60
CRESTVIEW 81 65 81 64 / 20 40 50 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page