822
FXUS64 KMOB 181154
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
654 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW WITH NO IMPROVEMENT TO THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
SHIFTS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/GULF
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE.
AHEAD OF THE COMING FRONT, THE AIRMASS REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS <=1.0" THROUGH TODAY. THEY THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5" AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS (MLCAPES
IN THE 300-500J/KG RANGE). ANY UPPER SUPPORT IS MODEST AT BEST,
ALONG WITH BULK WIND SHEAR (<=25KTS), SO AM EXPECTING ANY STRONG
STORMS TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. ALSO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. EVEN SO, NO DRASTIC
CHANGES TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE
EXPECTED. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFT TO OFF THE
EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE ON A BIT OF A
ROLLER COASTER RIDE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, THEN DROPPING TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME VALLEY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO AROUND 60 SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN RISING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE
PLAINS, THE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK,
BUT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY,
POPS REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK
LOW INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL
BRING BACK INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
REALLY JUST A MIX OF EVERYTHING THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, SCATTERED IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65, AND LOCALIZED VLIFR AND LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS DUE TO PATCHY DENSE FOG. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH OUR AREA FROM
MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LOWER TO IFR CRITERIA WITH LOCAL DROPS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 300 AM SUNDAY
FOR ALL MARINE ZONES DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES UP TO 3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BAYS AND SOUNDS, AND SEAS 3 TO 7 FT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH MIDWEEK. /22
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
ALSO, A FIRE ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT COORDINATE WITH RELEVANT FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON
ANY WWAS. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 53 72 50 / 0 50 30 0
PENSACOLA 79 58 72 54 / 0 20 20 0
DESTIN 78 61 73 54 / 0 10 20 0
EVERGREEN 86 50 72 43 / 0 50 20 0
WAYNESBORO 86 49 72 45 / 0 70 20 0
CAMDEN 84 49 69 44 / 0 60 20 0
CRESTVIEW 84 56 73 46 / 0 20 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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