393
FXUS64 KMOB 282317
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
ACCOMPANY IT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ARE BECOMING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
AFTER EXPERIENCING SEVERAL VERY COLD DAYS EARLIER THIS WEEK, A
BRIEF 'WARM-UP' IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA, HELPING TO BRING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
TO THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD, SUBFREEZING NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOW 30S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S
INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. HOW ANOMALOUS, YOU MIGHT ASK? LATEST EURO ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BE ROUGHLY
5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS
AN INCREDIBLY RARE FEAT. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL HELP TO SEND A
POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN VERY MEAGER, STRONG FORCING AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
WE QUICKLY DRY OUT BY FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT AS A VERY
COLD, VERY DRY AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH HOW LIGHT THE
RAINFALL WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND WITH HOW DRY AND WINDY WE WILL
GET BEHIND THE FRONT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY BLACK ICE ISSUES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S WEST OF I-65 AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR AREAS EAST. VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30-35 MPH IN SPOTS. PAIRING THIS WITH THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES, WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY INTERIOR AREAS AND LOWER TEENS FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES. BY SATURDAY, CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT US FROM WARMING MUCH. IN FACT, SOME INTERIOR ZONES ON
SATURDAY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
30S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FACTORING IN THE
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 20S. OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN
LOWS PLUMMET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH THESE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, WE COULD
ACTUALLY GET PRETTY CLOSE TO RECORDS SUNDAY MORNING (FEB 1ST RECORD
LOWS - KMOB: 17 KPNS: 20). FOR KMOB, 00Z ENSEMBLES GIVE A ROUGHLY 15-
20% CHANCE OF REACHING THIS RECORD, WHEREAS FOR KPNS, ENSEMBLES GIVE
A 50-60% CHANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND COLDER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THESE PROBABILITIES INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER. WINDS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED, HELPING TO BRING SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS TO THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. EXTREME COLD WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM THIS UPCOMING COLD
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO MODERATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS WILL
LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS 5
KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY SWITCH TO A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION, WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 11
FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 29 57 39 59 / 0 0 10 20
PENSACOLA 33 57 42 61 / 0 0 10 20
DESTIN 37 57 45 61 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 26 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 25 57 33 54 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 26 56 32 52 / 0 0 0 20
CRESTVIEW 25 59 34 61 / 0 0 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page