276
FXUS64 KMOB 190929
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WHILE AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROF JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STRETCH WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A WEAK TROF REMAINS OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE REGION AS AN ONSHORE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME CONVECTION, LIKELY INITIATED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY EVENING'S CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, MOST HIGH-RES MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR EASTERN INTERIOR ZONES BETWEEN THE
TWO LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES JUST MENTIONED. SOME CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES RISING BACK INTO THE 101-107 DEGREE RANGE. FOR TONIGHT,
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE
COAST. 12/DS
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND
UPCOMING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN POSITIONED
FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, AN INVERTED TROF AXIS
ALIGNED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY EASES
SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. THE TROF
BRINGS AN ENHANCEMENT TO FORCING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT DEEP GULF MOISTURE (PWATS => 1.8 TO 2
INCHES), FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT
TIMES PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
MAINTAINING A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM 87 TO 92. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO CARRY OVER INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-WAVE UPPER TROF
DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST AND OH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROF
ALLOWS A SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO
THE COAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW/STALL
NEAR THE COAST AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ASCENT FAVORING KEEPING A
MODEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, DAYTIME HIGHS BY THE LATTER
END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOK TO MOSTLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. /10
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF
TODAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD AND INTO THE MARINE AREA BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE, REMAINING WESTERLY
OFFSHORE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS IN SEAS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. 12/DS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 92 74 89 74 89 73 90 73 / 40 20 70 30 60 20 60 30
PENSACOLA 91 77 89 76 89 77 89 76 / 40 30 60 30 50 20 30 30
DESTIN 88 78 87 78 87 78 88 78 / 50 40 60 30 30 20 30 30
EVERGREEN 93 74 91 74 92 73 91 73 / 70 30 70 30 60 30 60 40
WAYNESBORO 93 74 88 72 89 72 88 71 / 50 20 70 30 60 30 60 50
CAMDEN 93 74 89 73 90 73 89 72 / 60 40 70 30 60 30 60 50
CRESTVIEW 93 74 91 72 91 72 92 73 / 60 30 70 20 60 20 50 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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