924
FXUS64 KMOB 161125
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK.
- WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRY WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER, AS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR
THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALL RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PERIOD THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING OVER THE MARINE AREA. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS STRATUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR VISBYS
WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 11Z. THE LATEST SATELLITE
LOOP IS SHOWING BREAKS INCREASING IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL EASE AND BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. 34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 51 72 59 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 69 54 69 60 / 0 0 0 20
DESTIN 68 54 67 58 / 0 0 0 20
EVERGREEN 71 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 69 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 67 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 72 45 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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