436
FXUS64 KMOB 290445
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAZARDS
WILL INCLUDE INTENSE RAIN RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. FOR MARINE AREAS, WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 95-100 THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
STARTING OUT WITH LATE TONIGHT, WELL, FOCUS IS PRETTY OBVIOUS
LOOKING AT THE KMOB RADAR LOOP AT A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW SPINNING
ACROSS OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS. NHC HIGHLIGHTS THIS AREA WITH A 0%
CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, 10% OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. LOOKING AT PROXIMITY MODEL SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR KMOB HIGHLIGHTS MANY KEY FEATURES HARMING ANY
CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW, NAMELY, VERY DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR. RAP H5 RH SHOWS THIS STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION WELL ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 594DM RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN US,
PULLING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING
850-200MB SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE IT'S TOLL ON ANY VERTICAL
STACKING ALOFT LIKELY KEEPING THIS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW. HAVING
SAID THAT, WE'LL SEE THIS LOW PROVIDE A FEW HAZARDS TO MONITOR
THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STARTING WITH THE MARINE AREAS,
AMPLE MARINE INSTABILITY AND SURFACE VORTICITY SUPPLIED BY THE LOW
ITSELF WILL BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE.
WEAK 0-1KM BULK SHEAR, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL RH, LOW LCL'S, SUITABLE
0-3KM LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED VORTICITY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NOTABLE WATERSPOUT RISK
THIS MORNING. ENHANCED SFC VORTICITY FROM THE LOW COULD ALSO
PROVIDE A FEW STRONGER WATERSPOUTS, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SQUALLS/BANDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE FOR LAND
AREAS, AS WE REMAIN PARKED UNDERNEATH GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT
MEANING NO REAL SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPRESSION AT PLAY, COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION, MEANING WE'LL SEE A FEW
SHOWER/STORMS POP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, BEST
COVERAGE AND LIFTING MECHANISM WILL COME FROM BOUNDARIES SWEEPING
FROM EAST TO WEST PROVIDING BEST LIFT TO PERHAPS FORM SOME BRIEF
SQUALLS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, MORESO CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING - WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON COASTAL AREAS, AS THIS LOW DRIFTS WEST AND WILL ENHANCE
DIFFERENTIAL FRICTION CONVERGENCE, OR WHERE WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY (STRONGER/FRICTIONLESS) OVER WATER TO MORE EASTERLY
(WEAKER/GREATER FRICTION) OVER LAND. THIS COULD PROVIDE A TARGETED ZONE
OF TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME (MAINLY ON
PLACEMENT), AND HIGHLY DEPENDS ON MANY SMALLER-SCALE/MESOSCALE
INGREDIENTS TO ALIGN JUST RIGHT, WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED WE ARE GREETED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY - SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OUT WEST DRIFTS EAST WITH TIME,
PARKING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY REGION HELPING TO ENHANCE EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. OUR LOCATION SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, AWAY FROM GREATER
MID-LEVEL SUPPRESSION WILL PROMOTE DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ALONG DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
ANY EASTERLY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF, AS
SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS TRY TO RE-IGNITE WHAT WAS ONCE DOLLY AS IT
GETS INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE GULF ENVIRONMENT. SOMETHING
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES DO WARM UP GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 90'S. MAX HEAT INDICES ARE LOOKING LIKE
THEY WILL CLIMB BACK IN THE 103-110 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE ON THE HIGHER END IS LOWER, AS FORECAST LONG-RANGE NBM
DEWPOINTS ARE TYPICALLY OVERINFLATED BY NOT CAPTURING A MORE
REALISTIC DAILY PBL MIXING REGIME. REGARDLESS, COULD REACH AT
LEAST AT OR NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA A FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON IT. KLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITES DUE TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAIN FOCUS ACROSS MARINE AREAS WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW GENERALLY
STATIONED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE 20-60NM ZONES, PROVIDING ENHANCED
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MAIN RISKS WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
SQUALLS, LIKELY REACHING 34KTS AT TIMES AND WATERSPOUTS. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
MODERATE (10-15KT) EASTERLY FLOW OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS WEAK LOW LIKELY DRIFTS WEST WITH TIME, ESTABLISHING A
GREATER SOUTHEASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW REGIME REMAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AT 10-15KTS. WAVES/SEAS RESPOND SLIGHTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE
BUT LACK OF DISTINCT LONG-DURATION FETCH WILL LIMIT ANY ENHANCED
WAVE ACTIVITY, BUT WILL BE ELEVATED/ENHANCED IN ANY LOCALLY STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 89 72 88 / 10 30 50 70
PENSACOLA 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 70 60
DESTIN 75 85 75 88 / 60 60 60 70
EVERGREEN 69 91 69 90 / 20 30 20 40
WAYNESBORO 70 94 71 91 / 10 20 10 50
CAMDEN 70 91 71 90 / 20 40 20 20
CRESTVIEW 69 88 70 90 / 20 40 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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