754
FXUS64 KMOB 211117
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR BEACH AREAS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; NO UPDATES NEEDED. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHARPENS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE LOW OFF THE DELMARVA DEEPENS,
MOVING A DRYER AIRMASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, REINFORCING AN ALREADY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION, AND CONTINUING TO LIMIT ANY RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. UPPER 70S EAST TO LOWER
80S WEST EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS AN A BIT COOLER NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CONUS FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE, ALONG WITH SHIFTING
IT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK
QUICKLY DROPS TO LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, INCREASING WINDS AND THE
RIP RISK TO HIGH FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE BY
TONIGHT. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AND RUNNING UNTIL ENDING AT SOME POINT
ON MONDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 51 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 78 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 78 46 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 79 46 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 76 47 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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