741
FXUS64 KMOB 112350
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
650 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 101 TO 107 THROUGH
WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 110.
- COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, IS POSSIBLE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WE WILL BE MOVING INTO A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM TYPICAL CENTRAL
GULF COAST JULY THUNDERSTORMS TO A MORE ANOMALOUSLY WET PATTERN TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND OPENING UP THE NEW WEEK. BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD INDICATES A LARGE H20 UPPER LOW/GYRE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS WITH A WESTWARD SPOKE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
WITH THIS FEATURE NEAR-BY ALONG WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE, PWAT'S 1.8 TO 2.0" MORE ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND INSTABILITY RESULTS IN SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE LOOK TO BE ALIGNED GENERALLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO NEW AUGUSTA MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORMS COULD LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BUT BECOMING LESS IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE SO LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO SINK SOUTHWARD
AND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON OUR REGION. WHILE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BECOMES
DETACHED AND MIGRATES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NOON ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL
THEN RETROGRADE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A LARGE
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, AN EAST TO WEST QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA THIS
WEEKEND SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS TO ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT LOOKS TO STALL IN PLACE THEREAFTER.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DEEPLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS BEING ENHANCED
FURTHER BY LARGER SCALE ASCENT OFFERED FROM ALOFT WITH SOUTHWARD
APPROACH OF TROUGH. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATION/RAIN INDUCED
"COLD POOLS". WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE PWAT'S
INCREASING TO A RANGE OF 2.0 TO 2.3" SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FAVORED EACH DAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. WPC HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NOT ONLY ON SUNDAY BUT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. A
SMALL SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
OUTLOOKED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR MONDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE COULD SEE A CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 6" OF RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT
IF TRAINING OF SLOW-MOVING. EFFICIENT RAIN RATE PRODUCING STORMS
ARE ABLE TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WE WOULD ANTICIPATE
A GENERAL 1 TO 3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO
RESUME TO TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING 89 TO 93 MOST AREAS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE
TOO FAR FROM CLIMO WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING 101-107 DEGREES WITH
ISOLATED SHORT DURATION INSTANCES AS HIGH AS AROUND 110 DEGREES.
HIGHS TO TREND MORE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80'S THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE.
HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90'S THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S FOR OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES, TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TREND IN
LOWER TO MID 70'S THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE THAT OUR
FLORIDA BEACHES WILL BE BREAKING INTO THE LOWER END HIGH RISK
CATEGORIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS, HAVE UPGRADED THE MODERATE IN
THESE AREAS TO A HIGH RISK. REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES ARE HELD AT
MODERATE RISK. /10
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AROUND NOON SUNDAY AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL COASTAL TAF SITES FROM 18Z-22Z FOR
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS TO 35-40 KNOTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
TO VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY. A MORE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP MONDAY. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET IN HEIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING 4 FEET LATE MONDAY. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 92 74 86 / 20 70 70 90
PENSACOLA 80 93 77 89 / 20 60 80 80
DESTIN 81 91 78 88 / 20 50 90 90
EVERGREEN 74 92 72 86 / 10 60 60 90
WAYNESBORO 75 92 72 86 / 10 70 70 80
CAMDEN 75 89 71 85 / 10 80 80 70
CRESTVIEW 75 93 73 88 / 20 70 70 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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