197
FXUS64 KMOB 062324
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
524 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS. DENSE MARINE FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN BY MIDWEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A RATHER WARM START TO THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL BEFORE OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THE EARLY WEEKEND. A
RATHER FLAT RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID
70S EACH DAY AND LOWS GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE DUG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND BEGUN TO EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. A RATHER POTENT
UPPER JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE
PLANTED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH NEUTRAL TO MAYBE GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIKELY MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWER TO
DEVELOP. CERTAINLY NOT THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH UNDER THE UPPER JET WITH JUST ENOUGH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET TO
SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION. IT WILL BE A RATHER FINE LINE BETWEEN
MORE SCATTERED STORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG) AND NOTHING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME TRENDS TO KEEP
AN EYE ON WILL BE 1. CAN THE UPPER TROUGH DIG A LITTLE DEEPER
BRINGING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA AND 2.
CAN WE MUSTER ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON TO MAYBE
OVERCOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT DEEPER STORMS.
IF EITHER OF THING COME TRUE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN TROUGH AND RAIN FOR OUR AREA
LIKELY DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY AS THE RATHER POSITIVELY
TILTED MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST AND HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH A RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORMS OCCURRING ALONG OR JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO SUPPORT A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
LIFTING OUT AT THIS TIME AND THE BETTER OVERLAP MAY OCCUR WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BRINGING A RAPID CHANGE FROM WARM AND
FOGGY TO COLD AND DRY. TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING, AFTER WHICH AN
IFR CEILING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO
VLIFR/LIFR IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY
MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT INCREASES TO 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY
BECOME A CONCERN EACH NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 76 59 76 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 63 74 62 74 / 10 10 10 20
DESTIN 63 71 63 72 / 10 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 58 77 57 77 / 0 10 0 10
WAYNESBORO 58 77 57 78 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN 58 77 57 77 / 10 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 60 77 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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