229
FXUS64 KMOB 181131
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LOCALIZED PATCHY FOR WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCLUDE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
STRONG TIDES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
AREA BEACHES. CONDITIONS MAY QUICKLY DETERIORATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS THE TIDE BEGINS TO RECEDE. BB-8
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS TODAY
OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MID AND LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
WEAKENS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EACH DAY STARTING WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE BEST THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL FOR THOSE WHO SEE STORMS IT WILL BE A
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE CHIPPING AWAY AT OUR ONGOING
DROUGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR FOG, SOME LOCALLY
DENSE, APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY MORNING. FOG WILL GENERALLY LIFT
PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS GENERALLY FALL IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE,
WARMEST WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 90'S. LOWS WARM WITH TIME
FROM UPPER 50'S TO MIDDLE 60'S THIS MORNING TO MIDDLE 60'S TO
LOWER 70'S BY MID WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE
TODAY, BECOMING HIGH TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BUT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULE OUT THIS
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, ANY IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 70 87 69 / 20 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 82 71 84 70 / 10 0 0 0
DESTIN 80 71 83 70 / 10 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 89 65 91 67 / 30 10 20 0
WAYNESBORO 89 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 10
CAMDEN 89 67 89 68 / 30 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 88 65 91 66 / 20 0 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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