757
FXUS64 KMOB 042350
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
650 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. SURF BUILDS TO
5-6 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDE
WILL LEAD TO OVERWASH AND MINOR INUNDATION ISSUES ALONG THE
COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; NO UPDATES NEEDED. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
STEP OUTSIDE AND YOU'LL PROBABLY NOTICE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
HOW DRY IT IS TODAY AS THE BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL
OFFSHORE AND IS CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL LINGER AROUND THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE INCREASED SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURES DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME COASTAL OVERWASH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. IF WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY PRIOR TO
HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY, SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MOBILE BAY RESULTING IN SOME OVERWASH
ALONG THE CAUSEWAY. GUIDANCE IS NOT SOLD ON THIS POTENTIAL;
HOWEVER, UPPER END ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ALONG WITH IT
WILL COME A SLUG OF MOISTURE AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 2
TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MAINLY WEST OF I-65 BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH, INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL FOLLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING STORMS AND HIGH PWATS COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A DEFINED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, IF ANY
STORM DECIDES TO LINGER AROUND LONG ENOUGH OVER AN AREA THAT HAS
ALREADY SEEN PLENTY OF RAINFALL THE LAST MONTH, IT COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THINGS
WILL GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND
OVERALL RIDGING TRIES TO SETUP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF WE ARE
STUCK IN THE SOUP OF SUMMER OR A MORE MILD PATTERN. NONETHELESS,
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TEMPORARILY DROPPING VIS/CEILINGS TO
MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
8-12 KNOTS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS WILL WANE
EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTLINE. BY MORNING, EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. /SS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE BAYS, WATERWAYS, AND GULF WATERS.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 85 71 83 / 0 30 40 80
PENSACOLA 72 86 74 85 / 0 10 10 40
DESTIN 72 85 73 85 / 0 0 0 20
EVERGREEN 60 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 40
WAYNESBORO 61 87 68 83 / 0 20 20 80
CAMDEN 61 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 62 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>634-655-
675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ650-
670.
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