800
FXUS64 KMOB 061830
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING, SLOWLY
SAGGING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS, LIKELY
KEEPING ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER VERY LOW. IF THERE WERE A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO, THEY'D BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LINE WILL AFFECT HOW SUNDAY EVOLVES, WITH
THE REMNANT GUST FRONT ACTING AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
STORMS SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE, AND DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY
ORIENTATION THERE MAY BE SOME PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE
DEPICTING 6 HOUR PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN QPF VALUES OF UPWARDS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES POTENTIALLY OCCURRING SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS SETS UP, IT COULD POSE SOME RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IF IT WERE FURTHER EAST OVER
URBAN AREAS OF MOBILE COUNTY. FOR NOW IT REMAINS SOMETHING TO
WATCH WITH FUTURE ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF
THIS CONTINUES TO BE A TREND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN THE RANGE OF
THE CAM GUIDANCE.
DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXIST TONIGHT
WITH EVEN LIGHTER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
GIVEN THIS, DENSE FOG SHOULD MATERIALIZE ONCE AGAIN, FIRST OVER
THE MARINE WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, THEN OVER LAND AS WE GET
LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR EXCLUDING BUTLER/CRENSHAW COUNTIES FOR NOW WHERE THE
SIGNAL IS WEAKER. THIS WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH 9AM SATURDAY MORNING.
BEACH HAZARDS CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE BORDERLINE
MODERATE/HIGH RISK CATEGORIES FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ACROSS AREA
BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS MORNINGS BEACH REPORTS
SUPPORTING THE HIGH RISK AND THE ANTICIPATION FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, THE HIGH RISK HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SEE UPPER RIDGING BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS,
THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
HOWEVER TIMING ON THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THAT LOW MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
LOW END SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH THAT IF IT TRANSITS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO GO WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE COAST BEFORE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING. CIGS
AND VISBYS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY.
BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR
ALL BAYS, SOUNDS, AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL
MILES, WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 81 65 76 / 0 20 40 70
PENSACOLA 66 77 66 74 / 0 10 20 50
DESTIN 64 74 65 73 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 62 85 62 76 / 0 20 30 80
WAYNESBORO 66 84 65 73 / 0 50 60 90
CAMDEN 64 83 63 72 / 0 40 50 90
CRESTVIEW 61 83 62 78 / 0 10 10 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ056-059-060-262>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
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