731
FXUS64 KMOB 180521
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND AREAS WITH A TARGETED
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING FOR HEAT INDICES OF 105-115. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BRING VERY HOT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WHILE
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE, WE REMAIN UNDER GENERALLY PRETTY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. THE AREA ALSO HAS DECENT MOISTURE WITH NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES OF 2.0-2.3" THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE GULF PROVIDES LIGHT WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH MORNING BEFORE THE SEABREEZE ADVANCES
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS THE GENERAL SURFACE PATTERN
THAT LASTS THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEK WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER MARINE AREAS MOST MORNINGS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY, SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET ORGANIZED
ENOUGH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES OF FLORIDA
AND ALABAMA AND A HEAT ADVISORY FOR INLAND AREAS FROM 11AM-8PM
TUESDAY. THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE WE MOST LIKELY FALL JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR THE WEEKEND.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND POSSIBLY REACHING 100, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS
BRINGS HEAT INDICES UP TO THE 105-115 RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE ADVANCES INLAND. THERE CONTINUES
BE LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK
ONLY REACHING DOWN TO THE MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 ALONG THE COAST. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
TAKE BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE, AND MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF HEAT
ILLNESS.
THE RIDGE DOES START BREAKING DOWN OVER THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH TO MOVING FURTHER DOWN
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS COULD HELP BREAK THE PATTERN OF DAILY HEAT
HEADLINES WITH MAX AND MIN TEMPS DECREASING A FEW DEGREES. MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IF ANY WAVES MAKE
IT DOWN HERE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SOME WELCOMED SLIGHT RELIEF AFTER THE
EXTENDED HEAT OVER THE LAST WEEK.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF
HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 3 FEET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MARINE WINDS.
SS/97
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS IN THE COMING WEEK. ISOLATED TO
POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS NEAR STORMS. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 76 96 75 / 40 20 30 10
PENSACOLA 96 80 96 78 / 30 10 10 10
DESTIN 94 81 94 80 / 30 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 98 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 100 74 100 73 / 30 20 20 30
CAMDEN 96 73 97 74 / 20 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 97 75 98 75 / 30 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>060-261-262.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201-203-205.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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