423
FXUS64 KMOB 241051
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
551 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUD
DECKS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AL
AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, BUT SKIES ARE OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME VERY
PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS AND MAY CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS/EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/SEABREEZE WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TURNING
S/SW NEAR THE COAST. ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA FOR THE MOST
PART THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, BUT WILL KEEP THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CAPPED BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS AROUND 10 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT
FOR READINGS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/AL
TONIGHT, WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO EXTEND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE WE MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND GENERALLY FROM AROUND 60
TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT GENERALLY LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY TO THE EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE BUT MAY STILL EXTEND ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
ASSOCIATED PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES MAY EXTEND OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THIS FEATURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THIS PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
(~20 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS/STORMS ROUGHLY NORTHEAST OF A BUTLER, AL TO
FLORALA, AL LINE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S OVER INTERIOR AREAS WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. /21
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SLIDES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EAST
COAST. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS
ITS GRIP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR PATTERN LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW DESPITE INCREASING
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR INLAND COUNTIES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE'S STILL
A CHANCE THAT THE RIDGING DRAPED THROUGHOUT THE REGION MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE FRONT (AND THE BULK OF THE RAIN) TO HANG
UP NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACH NOTE: RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH A
HIGH RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AT THE BEACHES. RCMOS PROBABILITIES INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF THE RISK REMAINING HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A BUILD IN SEAS THIS WEEKEND.
/21
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 59 83 62 82 67 81 66 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 62 81 65 79 68 79 68 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 76 64 79 66 79 69 78 69 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 83 57 85 58 84 61 84 61 / 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 57 85 59 85 63 85 62 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 80 56 82 59 84 61 83 62 / 10 0 20 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 83 56 86 57 84 61 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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