324
FXUS64 KMOB 120711
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
211 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM DAWN THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 100-106 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE US INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE
SATURDAY. ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SET UP STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
MORNING. PMMS SHOW SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WHICH ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, BUT SOME SMALL BULLSEYES ARE SHOWING UP IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS OVER COASTAL WATERS HAVE
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH VALUES IN THE 2.1-2.3 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING TO
THE WEST AT LIX SHOWS THE MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CLOSE TO
FULLY SATURATED AND A 2.24 INCH PWAT WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THESE HIGH PWATS AND WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 15,000+ FEET WILL
SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH PWATS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE
AREA IN TURN HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MORNING OVER MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD
STAY GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S TO PERHAPS THE UPPER 60S INLAND WHERE
THE MOST EFFICIENT MIXING OCCURS WITH MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SO CLOSE, THIS
RESULTS IN LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST. THIS ESPECIALLY HAPPENS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE WE ARE
CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT I EXPECT WE WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH
TO STAY BELOW 108+ HEAT INDICES. NORMAL PWATS ARE IN THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON. PWATS MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA, RAIN CHANCES DROP
OFF TO END THE WEEK. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND WE SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW LOW TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK FOR ALL AREA BEACHES IN FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. WE ARE SEEING AN
UPTREND IN WINDS, SO AN INCREASE TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MAY
SET UP. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS REMAIN GENERALLY 1 TO 2
FEET THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND. A LIGHT
DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY MID WEEK. 1 FOOT SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY TO 3 TO 6
FEET. WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 91 73 / 50 10 50 0
PENSACOLA 88 77 89 77 / 80 20 60 0
DESTIN 88 77 88 77 / 80 20 40 10
EVERGREEN 90 70 93 69 / 50 10 30 0
WAYNESBORO 91 72 94 70 / 30 10 20 0
CAMDEN 89 72 93 70 / 50 10 20 0
CRESTVIEW 90 72 91 72 / 60 10 60 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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