031
FXUS64 KMOB 271930
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT INTO TONIGHT FOR
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
- A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS TUESDAY,
BRINGING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO AREA BEACHES IN THE COMING
WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS MOVES QUICKLY OFF. A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GULF IN RESPONSE AND STALLS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE WEEKEND. A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE EVENTUALLY
BECOMES A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IN
THE COMING WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE, WITH INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE BUILDING UPPER
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT NORTHEASTWARD THE WESTERN UPPER LOW AS
IT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST AT BEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THE END OF THE FORECAST, BUT FEEL ANY COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S START THE WEEK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHICH QUICKLY RISE IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES DO REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST AS THE
FLOW OVER WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST, UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME RISE. FROM LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL AND A LARGE TIDAL
RAIN IS BRINGING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES TODAY.
AM EXPECTING THIS TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MORE
CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COMING WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING
SWELL TO AREA BEACHES, AND A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING THE MID WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
AREA WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG MID WEEK AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 54 77 52 77 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 56 74 55 73 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 56 71 55 72 / 10 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 50 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 48 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 51 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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