030
FXUS64 KMOB 162100
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING EAST TO THE
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WEST TO THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL
MOVE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE WEST A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR THE TX COAST REFLECTING MOSTLY AS A WEAK TROF AT THE SURFACE
NEAR THE TX COAST WILL ALSO MOVE LITTLE IN THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES PROGGED
TO THE SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
PROGGED TO MOVE NE. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG A DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VERY ISOLATED
COVERAGE OR ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT MENTION
THIS CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THOUGH KEEP THE 10 PERCENT
POP IN THE GRIDS GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S NEAR THE COAST. WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE 98 TO ABOUT 103
DEGREES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE, THE AXIS OF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES, REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. AIDED IN PART BY HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, A SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND
PUSHES A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LAYER LIFTING SEEN MAINLY
NEAR 305K COMBINED WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS LOW AS
30 MB LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTRIBUTES TO A HOT DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S, THEN COOLER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST, THEN TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND NEAR 70 AT THE
COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCREASES TO
A MODERATE RISK ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW. /29
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE
WESTERN STATES ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OR INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES (AND THE FORECAST AREA) THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY, AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH MAY MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IMPROVES ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. /29
MARINE
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, REINFORCED THU
INTO FRI AS THE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SETTLES
BETTER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE SHORE FLOW MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED, BECOMING MOSTLY NORTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING EACH DAY. BY THU INTO FRI EXPECT A MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. 32/EE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 96 73 98 73 92 69 89 / 20 10 0 10 10 30 10 10
PENSACOLA 76 93 76 97 76 89 70 88 / 20 10 0 10 10 30 10 10
DESTIN 77 91 78 94 77 87 72 87 / 20 10 0 10 20 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 71 96 71 99 72 90 64 89 / 10 10 0 10 10 20 10 10
WAYNESBORO 71 96 71 97 72 91 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 10 30 10 10
CAMDEN 70 96 70 98 71 90 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 10 20 0 10
CRESTVIEW 71 96 71 98 72 89 65 89 / 20 10 0 10 10 20 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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