224
FXUS64 KMOB 141123
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FOG HAS
STARTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10. LOOKING
AT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE AREA IS FLIRTING IN THE 60
TO 80% OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AFTER ABOUT 4 AM
THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE WEN'T AHEAD AND ISSUED A
DENSE FOR ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO OUR AREA UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH. FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX
OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MUCH
OF THE GULF. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DESPITE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
ONE- HALF TO EIGHT-TENTHS OF AN INCH. WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS NEARING ONE INCH AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP
MOISTURE. IN FACT, THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 810MB REMAINS IMPRESSIVELY
DRY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
GRIPPED OUR REGION. THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEEK'S END. THERE ARE NO TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE ECMWF DOES HAVE A
HIGHER AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO THE GFS, WITH THE BASE FURTHER SOUTH. WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-65 AS THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER PERSISTING ALL
WEEK DOES MAINTAIN SOME BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO BETWEEN 1 TO 3 MILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG NOT BEING
RULED OUT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY BEING IMPACTED BY AREAS OF DENSE FOG, WE WILL JUST
NEED TO SEE HOW THING UNFOLD BEFORE NEEDING ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND 7 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS INLAND WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES TONIGHT AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COASTAL LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES TONIGHT AND THEN IN THE MIDDLE
60S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
BEACH FORECAST: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR TO VLIFR VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS FOG RE-DEVELOPS OVER MANY OF THE SAME AREAS.
BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST. WINDS LOOK TO TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BB-8
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES A BIT
TOO MOIST TO HOIST A BY THE CRITERIA RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING AT
THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL, PLAYING THIS BY EAR. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 79 63 79 65 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 77 65 77 66 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 87 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 86 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 85 57 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>264.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201-203-
205.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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