617
FXUS64 KMOB 051136
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN AL THROUGH DAYBREAK.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100-107 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY, WITH VALUES OF 108-110 POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
PERFORMED A VERY EARLY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ASSESS INCREASING RISK FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. RECENT REFS/HREF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO PINPOINT SFC RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT, EXPANDING EAST
THROUGH DAYBREAK. GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR NOW ARE ALONG THE
AL/FL BORDER, BUT CASTED A WIDER NET FOR COUNTIES SURROUNDING
GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE AND NOW, OBS ARE CATCHING UP SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN IN AREAS. WINDS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG ISSUES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BUT OVERALL
EVEN AREAS OUTSIDE/AROUND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, COULD STILL SEE
PATCHY 1-3SM FOG, AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE. THREAT SHOULD
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR GUIDANCE AND
OBS/TRENDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IF ANY EXPANSIONS ARE
REQUIRED, IF SO WILL UPDATE. KLG
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT BROUGHT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STRUNG OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS MORNING AS IT LEAVES BEHIND AN EAST-WEST ZONE OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING
THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, WITH 40-60% POPS AREAWIDE.
ONE AREA OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION COULD BE MID-LATE MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 IN ALABAMA ALONG A ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVERGENCE.
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.4 INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS,
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP. THE SECOND AREA WOULD BE
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, SHIFTING
INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PWATS OF AROUND
2.1-2.3 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS. WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE A BIT MORE INTERESTING IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME
SUPPRESSED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SHORTWAVES SWING
DOWN THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN PLACES THE AREA WITHIN A GENERAL
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW WITH NOTABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. IN THE LOW LEVELS, WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS
ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, PERHAPS PUSHING
INTO OUR INTERIOR AREAS LATE IN THE DAY (40-50% POPS). A GREATER
FOCUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON (60-70% POPS) AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY REACHES
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GUIDANCE POINTS TO A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BOTH DAYS WITH 3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE AND PERHAPS SOME
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT
COULD ALSO ENHANCE MICROBURST POTENTIAL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS BACK TO THE EAST,
SHIFTING THE STEERING FLOW BACK TO EASTERLY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT
STALLS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-
60% POPS) EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. IF THE
FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH, THEN A GREATER REDUCTION IN
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES OVER 100 EACH DAY.
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REACHING 108-110 IN SOME AREAS. THIS MAY WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOCUS THIS MORNING REMAINS TO BE PATCHY AREAS OF SFC FG FOR A FEW
AREAS ACROSS COASTAL INTERIOR FL AND ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHERN AL.
MOST IMPACTFUL FOGGY AREAS REMAINS AWAY FROM AREA TERMINALS,
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE AS ALL FG DISSIPATES.
THEREAFTER, SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WITH
GREATER COVERAGE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE PERIODIC LOWER VIS/CIGS FROM HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO TEMPORARY
FLIGHT REDUCTIONS, BUT EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT/VARIABLE
FLOW TODAY, BECOMING 5 TO 8KTS FROM THE SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10KTS, BUT COULD SWITCH FROM THE EAST
TUESDAY INTO LATE-WEEK, BECOMING MODERATE AT 10 TO 15KTS AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. DAILY MAINLY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 73 92 74 / 40 10 40 20
PENSACOLA 89 76 91 77 / 40 10 40 30
DESTIN 88 78 89 78 / 40 10 20 40
EVERGREEN 92 72 95 70 / 50 10 50 50
WAYNESBORO 93 72 96 71 / 40 10 50 20
CAMDEN 91 73 97 73 / 50 10 40 30
CRESTVIEW 91 72 92 73 / 50 20 40 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ056-059-
060.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201-203-
205.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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