117
FXUS64 KMOB 251829
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
129 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF I-65.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EAST
AND BUILDS NORTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FURTHER EAST. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED OVER FORECAST AREA WASHES OUT,
WITH MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO DROP A BIT, WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
INCREASING. WITH THAT, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND (AREA
WIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-
65 FRIDAY), WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING. A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE
FOR THE CURRENT SHORT TERM. FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH (MLCAPES RISING INTO THE 1500-2500J/KG
RANGE) EACH DAY FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH WIND SHEAR WEAK AT BEST,
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WITH MOST DAMAGE COMING FROM
OUTFLOW DRIVEN PULSE TYPE STORMS.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON RISE
TO AROUND 90 TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES QUICKLY RISE BACK
INTO THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE (LOCALLY HIGHER) OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES,
SEASONAL UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT (MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE GULF
WARMED COAST) QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA WIDE BY
THE WEEKEND)
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER/EASTERN CONUS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH. WITH THE
SHIFT NORTH, MOISTURE INFLUX SQUASHING SUBSIDENCE DECREASES A BIT,
ALLOWING MORE GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED INCREASE BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS BY
MID WEEK. EVEN WITH THE DECREASE IN THE SUBSIDENCE, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HEAT INDICES RISE INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, SO
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBLITY OF HEAD ADVISORIES IN THE
COMING WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH THE SHIFTING UPPER PATTERN. EVEN WITH A
LARGE TIDAL RANGE, THE LACK OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE SWELL WILL KEEP THE
RIP RISK LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, TEMPORARILY RESULTING IN REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME
WASHES OUT, WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE COMING WEEK WILL SEE A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE
NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE/DAYTIME ONSHORE REGIME SETTING UP.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 91 75 91 / 10 20 0 0
PENSACOLA 77 91 79 91 / 30 30 10 0
DESTIN 77 89 79 89 / 30 20 10 0
EVERGREEN 70 91 72 92 / 20 40 10 0
WAYNESBORO 71 93 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
CAMDEN 70 90 73 90 / 10 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 71 92 73 93 / 20 60 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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