113  
FXUS64 KMOB 100439  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1139 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST LATE  
TONIGHT, THEN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP  
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND SPREAD  
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE  
AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5  
TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /29  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1016 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A SOUPY AIRMASS THROUGH THE  
NEAR TERM (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES BOUNCING AROUND IN THE 1.9"-  
2.2" RANGE), A WET FORECAST CONTINUES. THE PATTERN OF DEVELOPMENT IS  
EXPECTED TO BE THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH DEVELOPMENT  
BEGINNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT, THEN PROPAGATING  
INLAND IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE  
SLOW MOVING AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED, WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW  
PROVIDING LITTLE EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG  
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, WITH MLCAPES  
RISING INTO THE 1500-2000J/KG RANGE, MAINLY OVER AREAS INLAND THAT  
SEE SOME DECENT HEATING. DCAPES WILL BE MARGINAL, GENERALLY 500-  
700J/KG. THE BIGGEST WORRY WILL BE RAIN AND POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES.  
WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS, LOCAL  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2"-3" IN SHORT ORDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
STRONGER STORMS. PONDING TO LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS  
LIKELY, MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND ONE LAYER INLAND.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO  
AROUND TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, WITH TEMPERATURE MORE BELOW CLOSER  
TO THE COAST DUE TO CONVECTION CUTTING OFF ANY HEATING EARLIER IN  
THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS,  
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  
 
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID  
WEEK, WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE COMBINING WITH SWELL FROM A MODEST  
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
/16  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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