876
FXUS64 KMOB 142343
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
543 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1AM TONIGHT TO 9 AM
THURSDAY AS WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER OPEN GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
- FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A ROLLER COASTER IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY THROUGH THE FORECAST. STARTING WITH TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A COLDER, DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S TONIGHT, AS
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84
TO LOW/MID 30S SOUTH OF I-10. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS LIGHTEN THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE AROUND 25 TO UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD AIR WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 40S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO AROUND 50S ALONG THE COAST. THE STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DANGEROUS OFFSHORE WINDS TO AREA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ON TO THE NEXT PERIOD OF INTEREST, FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIVE
SOUTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS ENERGY MERGES WITH
THE LOW, THEN DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
RISING TO NEAR 1", ENOUGH FOR SOME RAINSHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND
THIS FRONT, WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES DROPPING TO 0.5" NORTHWEST
TO 0.8" SOUTHEAST JUST BEFORE THE SECOND COLD PUSH OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 SATURDAY, AROUND
SEASONAL. SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT, WITH INCONSISTENT TIMING OF UPPER
DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH WITH THE SECOND FRONT.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
OVER THE GULF. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHAT FORM THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE, WITH A COLD AND SATURATED ENOUGH AIRMASS IN
THE LOWEST 15K'. CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE SAYS ENOUGH FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO SNOW FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS
IS ADVERTISING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 750MB
AND ABOVE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS, AND OTHER GUIDANCE. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING
AT VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS, SO AT THIS POINT, AM JUST MENTIONING
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THE RAIN. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE
CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE I GO ANY HIGHER THAN FLURRIES,
AND WITH THIS TIME FRAME BEING IN THE EXTENDED, HAVE SOME TIME TO
PLAY WITH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FIRST FRONT TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY, DROPPING INTO THE
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES CRATER FROM AROUND
40 NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT, 20S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL REINFORCE A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE PASSING FRONT DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
A ROLLER COASTER OF WINDS, MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO DIRECTION, WILL
HELP TO LIMIT LONGER PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW, KEEPING THE RIP RISK
AT LOW, TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LEVELS. /16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF -SHRA AT THE PNS TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR, BUT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY DRY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 08-11Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS STEADILY INCREASE.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO RAMP UP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALES, MAINLY
BY FREQUENT GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR OFFSHORE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE, MAINLY OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 31 50 29 / 20 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 61 32 48 33 / 30 20 0 0
DESTIN 61 34 49 33 / 50 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 26 46 22 / 50 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 57 27 46 25 / 50 20 0 0
CAMDEN 55 26 43 24 / 70 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 61 29 48 22 / 40 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
FLZ201>206.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ067-
075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ670-
675.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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