043
FXUS64 KMOB 310546
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100 EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN INTERESTING PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER TROF ORIENTED OFF THE EAST COAST BUILDS
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED NEAR/ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BROADENS AND MOVES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER NEAR THIS POSITION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY, THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN A BACK-DOOR STYLE
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN MOSTLY CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, THEN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK-DOOR
FRONT AND ALSO AS THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
THEN TREND COOLER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND
TO NEAR 70 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A LOW RISK IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR, BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST,
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN WESTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES WHILE TURNING
SOUTHERLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATE
TUESDAY AND EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 73 92 73 / 40 20 50 10
PENSACOLA 87 75 89 75 / 40 30 40 10
DESTIN 86 74 87 75 / 40 30 20 10
EVERGREEN 89 71 91 71 / 60 40 30 20
WAYNESBORO 90 72 92 71 / 30 20 20 10
CAMDEN 87 70 88 70 / 60 40 30 30
CRESTVIEW 90 71 93 71 / 60 40 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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