030  
FXUS64 KMOB 162100  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
DEEP UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING EAST TO THE  
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WEST TO THE LOWER PLAINS STATES WILL  
MOVE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE WEST A WEAK UPPER LOW  
NEAR THE TX COAST REFLECTING MOSTLY AS A WEAK TROF AT THE SURFACE  
NEAR THE TX COAST WILL ALSO MOVE LITTLE IN THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
NEAR THE SURFACE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO  
STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES PROGGED  
TO THE SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE  
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST  
PROGGED TO MOVE NE. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF  
WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE ALONG A DEVELOPING  
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH VERY ISOLATED  
COVERAGE OR ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT MENTION  
THIS CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THOUGH KEEP THE 10 PERCENT  
POP IN THE GRIDS GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH  
TUE AFTERNOON WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS  
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS TUES  
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S NEAR THE COAST. WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING  
SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SURFACE  
DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND  
AREAS LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE 98 TO ABOUT 103  
DEGREES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
32/EE  
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
A LARGE  
UPPER RIDGE, THE AXIS OF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
TO THE GREAT LAKES, REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT. AIDED IN PART BY HURRICANE HUMBERTO IN THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC, A SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND  
PUSHES A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LAYER LIFTING SEEN MAINLY  
NEAR 305K COMBINED WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS LOW AS  
30 MB LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO  
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. SUBSIDENCE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CONTRIBUTES TO A HOT DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S, THEN COOLER AIR  
FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON  
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES ARE  
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE  
COAST, THEN TREND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS  
THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND NEAR 70 AT THE  
COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INCREASES TO  
A MODERATE RISK ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW. /29  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE  
WESTERN STATES ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN  
EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OR INTERIOR EASTERN  
STATES ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,  
ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE EXTREME  
SOUTHEAST STATES (AND THE FORECAST AREA) THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY  
BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES  
GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ON  
FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON MONDAY, AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH MAY MOVE INTO THE  
AREA AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS FROM  
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROBABLY PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY  
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IMPROVES ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED  
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE. /29  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER  
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, REINFORCED THU  
INTO FRI AS THE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SETTLES  
BETTER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A LIGHT  
TO MODERATE ONSHORE SHORE FLOW MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS THROUGH WED, BECOMING MOSTLY NORTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH  
MID TO LATE MORNING EACH DAY. BY THU INTO FRI EXPECT A MODERATE TO  
STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS  
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY FRI AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LATE IN  
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 74 96 73 98 73 92 69 89 / 20 10 0 10 10 30 10 10  
PENSACOLA 76 93 76 97 76 89 70 88 / 20 10 0 10 10 30 10 10  
DESTIN 77 91 78 94 77 87 72 87 / 20 10 0 10 20 30 10 10  
EVERGREEN 71 96 71 99 72 90 64 89 / 10 10 0 10 10 20 10 10  
WAYNESBORO 71 96 71 97 72 91 66 88 / 10 10 0 10 10 30 10 10  
CAMDEN 70 96 70 98 71 90 64 88 / 10 10 0 10 10 20 0 10  
CRESTVIEW 71 96 71 98 72 89 65 89 / 20 10 0 10 10 20 10 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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