783
FXUS64 KMOB 161159
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021
AVIATION
12Z ISSUANCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS, WITH OCCASIONAL
DROPS TO IFR LEVELS, WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES
WILL THEN CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF I-65
AROUND DAYBREAK WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MID MORNING. A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT BE TOO COLD AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS,
RANGING FROM 69 TO 75 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65, AND FROM 75 TO 82
DEGREES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 50 DEGREES INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. /29 /22
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...FALL ALONG THE
GULF COAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL BY MONDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PLANTED FIRMLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PATTERN ON
MONDAY LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER,
LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT WILL STILL YIELD DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
AS RETURN FLOW HAS NOT SETUP YET LEADING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 40S INLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY LIMITING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST.
BB/03
EXTENDED TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRY AND COOL WEATHER
REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. ON WEDNESDAY, THIS RIDGING GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS A MORE
ZONAL, POTENTIALLY LIGHT RETURN FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE REGION BY
THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY MIDWEEK, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LIGHT LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW BEGINS DEVELOPING. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN GULF
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THIS TIME, AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS OF
NOW, MAINLY ISOLATED POPS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
VERY SLOWLY CREEPS UP. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, SCATTERED TO SOME ISOLATED POPS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO THINGS COULD CHANGE MOVING FORWARD. FOR
NOW, THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THE REGION SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPS START OFF IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. JEH/88
MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, INCLUDING MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND, FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 4 TO 7 FT WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SHIFT EASTERLY. /22
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632-650-
655-670-675.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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