530
FXUS64 KMOB 020608
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
108 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING EAST OF
I-65 TODAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATION PLOT AND BEING
DETECTED BY REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN WAVER ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA-BREEZE PUSHES
SLIGHTLY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTH OF THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO DEVELOPING LAND-BREEZE. THIS BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH NOON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AN UPPER
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 2.1-2.3 INCHES. WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING DUE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FORCING ALONG AN 850MB FRONT AND
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWNESS OF THIS SYSTEM,
WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ANDALUSIA TO MOBILE THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA.
A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A
SEA-BREEZE AS WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S, BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN, HEAT INDICES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPS
TO A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE COAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY, AND FROM 7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 4PM SUNDAY FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMING PREVALENT FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 72 92 73 / 30 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 89 76 92 77 / 80 40 10 10
DESTIN 87 77 89 78 / 90 60 10 20
EVERGREEN 91 69 90 70 / 30 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 91 70 92 70 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 10 0
CRESTVIEW 89 71 92 71 / 70 40 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-
655-670-675.
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