003
FXUS64 KMOB 312002 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
202 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY. LOW WATER LEVELS ACROSS MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS,
ESPECIALLY MOBILE BAY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DEFINITELY WINNING THE BATTLE THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING INTERIOR AREAS, WITH THE COLDEST READINGS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84 WHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 1 PM
TEMPERATURE AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT DID MANAGE TO REACH 35
DEGREES, SO WE WERE NOT ABLE TO BREAK OR MATCH THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES SET WAY BACK IN 1949. HOWEVER, THE 2
PM TEMPERATURE AT THE PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS ONLY 35
DEGREES, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO BREAK OR
MATCH THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 38 DEGREES SET IN
1978. WE DID RECEIVED REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN COVINGTON AND
CRENSHAW COUNTIES THIS MORNING, BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA.
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR
DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) DROPPING BACK
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 9 PM
THIS EVENING, EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY
IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE GALE WARNING FOR THE BAYS
AND SOUNDS EXPIRE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CEASE TO
EXIST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY SOARING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER REGIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE, WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DROP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
RELAX BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, BUT GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL BAYS AND
SOUNDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY. LOW WATER LEVELS ACROSS MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS, ESPECIALLY
MOBILE BAY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 19 45 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 22 45 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 24 45 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 18 43 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 18 43 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 18 41 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 17 45 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>264.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201-203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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