796
FXUS64 KMOB 020808
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
308 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- BENEFICIAL RAINS END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA BEFORE EXITING OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LOW MEANWHILE ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN STATES ON MONDAY,
THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF
PATTERN WHICH EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROF TAKES ON A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION
THEN BROADENS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN PLAYS OUT. VERY DRY
DEEP LAYER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
THEN CLEARING OCCURS AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY THEN
DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY EVENING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS AND BOATING CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY END OF WEST TO EAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /JLH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 48 75 50 / 20 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 72 53 74 56 / 50 0 0 0
DESTIN 73 56 75 58 / 70 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 72 43 75 44 / 40 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 71 45 75 46 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 70 45 72 46 / 30 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 73 45 76 46 / 60 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GMZ633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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