058
FXUS64 KMOB 300825
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND TO AREA WATERS, CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND
IS ABSORBED INTO A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN OVER THE
INTERIOR STATES, WITH THIS PATTERN EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A
MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY
SATURDAY. AN OUTFLOW FLOW BOUNDARY FROM A WEAKENING MCS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST, AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN CURRENTLY LOCATED MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IS
ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH WHILE SPREADING FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR AREAS THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INTERESTING ASPECT TO THE FORECAST IS THAT A SURFACE LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO FORM ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY
THEN TRACK ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD RANGING
FROM 1.5-2.0 INCHES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT A WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD PORTEND POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY, AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK
FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION IS SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS SHIFT PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY FOR FRIDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 59 70 54 / 70 50 70 100
PENSACOLA 80 63 72 57 / 70 60 60 90
DESTIN 79 64 75 60 / 70 60 60 90
EVERGREEN 77 54 69 51 / 60 40 60 100
WAYNESBORO 72 54 65 50 / 60 40 80 100
CAMDEN 73 53 66 50 / 50 30 70 100
CRESTVIEW 83 58 74 55 / 60 50 60 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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