155
FXUS64 KMOB 252337
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING OR BREAKING
DAILY RECORD HIGHS. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- DAILY, MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED T-STORM CHANCES
INCREASES MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN HOT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NOW. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS WELL
INLAND FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WE START OFF TODAY'S PACKAGE WITH A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY, MAKING WAY FOR A PROMINENT RIDGE TO
REBUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMERGES UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE
DAILY TEMPERATURES INLAND INCREASING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK, THE SEA-BREEZE WILL ONLY MIGRATE TO JUST NORTH
OF I-10 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN OPPOSING 850 MB NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THE
SEA-BREEZE SHOULD MIGRATE AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY-84 CORRIDOR
ON TUESDAY AS THE OPPOSING FLOW WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S INLAND.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE HOT TOMORROW AND THEN VERY
HOT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WHEN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES
LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT STRESS. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST DAY WE
WILL HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT, FOLLOWED BY A COMBINATION OF
HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEAT PRECAUTIONARY
MESSAGING IN THE COMING DAYS SO THE PUBLIC IS AWARE, AND PREPARES
ACCORDINGLY. FOR THE HOTTEST DAYS, WE ARE FORECASTING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) BETWEEN 102-110 DEGREES ON MONDAY, AND
BETWEEN 105-112 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE TEMPORARY HEAT
INDICES PEEK AROUND 115 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT AS LOWS TONIGHT NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, INCREASING TO 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR AT LEAST TIE RECORD
HIGHS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (AND DATES)
FOR THE MOBILE AND PENSACOLA AREAS ALONG WITH OUR LATEST FORECAST:
SUNDAY, JULY 26
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 98 (1983) / FORECAST: 96
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1990) / FORECAST: 96
MONDAY, JULY 27
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 99 (1968) / FORECAST: 97
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1970) / FORECAST: 98
TUESDAY, JULY 28
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1968) / FORECAST: 100
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1993) / FORECAST: 98
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1877) / FORECAST: 99
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 100 (1986) / FORECAST: 98
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
FAR INTERIOR AREAS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO OUR NORTH ENTERS INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY REMAINING
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE EVENING. FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS A
20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA AS A
SECOND COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AIDED BY A STRAIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ABOVE 700MB. WE DID MAKE SOME MINOR EDITS
TO THE NBM POPS TO INCREASE THEM FOR SUNDAY, INCLUDING NEAR THE
COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LINE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT
OCCASIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
VALUES APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG. LOOKING AHEAD, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA-BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS SIMILAR UPPER TROUGH IS
SET TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND BRING SOME
RELIEF TO THE HEAT. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPS SUNDAY
MORNING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE NEAR
THE COAST WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CALM WAVES/SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK OUT OF THE WEST, AVERAGING
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE WAVES WILL REMAIN
CALM/LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 96 77 97 / 0 20 10 30
PENSACOLA 78 96 79 98 / 0 30 10 20
DESTIN 80 91 81 92 / 0 20 10 20
EVERGREEN 74 95 75 96 / 0 30 10 10
WAYNESBORO 75 95 76 98 / 10 30 10 10
CAMDEN 75 93 75 96 / 20 40 20 10
CRESTVIEW 75 96 76 97 / 10 20 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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