324
FXUS64 KMOB 200528
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MOVES OFF AS A RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT NORTH OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WITH MOISTURE RETURN SLOW AS A SURFACE RIDGE
ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AM NOT EXPECTING MORE MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
MID WEEK, BUT NOT MOISTURE LEVELS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE AN ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE ON THAT BELOW. BACK TO
TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE AN
UPTICK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO PASS CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST. ULTIMATELY, A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE. COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING INCREASED
GULF MOISTURE INLAND, PRECIPITATION RETURNS IN THE COMING WEEKEND.
HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, READ OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW LASTS INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW INTO THE
COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL BRING BACK
INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK
TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH ONLY
BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. NORTH WINDS AROUND 3 TO 8
KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE BAYS AND SOUNDS BY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO, A FIRE
ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RED
FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
CONTINUE WITH COORDINATION WITH RELEVANT FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY
WWAS NEEDED.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 59 78 63 78 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 59 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 47 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 48 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-
655-670-675.
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