723
FXUS64 KMOB 191730
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW WITH
NO IMPROVEMENT TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
THROUGH TUESDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE. PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS
HAVE RISEN AROUND 1.6" AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX IN,
THOUGH NO STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE CREATED RAINFALL FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN SO, NO
DRASTIC CHANGES TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE
EXPECTED. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO OFF THE
EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RISE FROM AROUND 70
TODAY TO THE 79 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
RISE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE
PLAINS, THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE MID WEEK, BUT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY, POPS REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW
INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL
BRING BACK INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS LOWER TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL DECREASE TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE BAYS AND SOUNDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN STRONG OVER THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. /22
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ALSO, A FIRE ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT CONTINUE, WITH COORDINATION WITH RELEVANT FIRE
WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY WWAS NEEDED. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 50 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 54 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 54 78 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 44 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 45 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 44 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 80 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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