018
FXUS64 KMOB 272349
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
549 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR THRESHOLDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS,
SOUTHWEST AL AND THE INTERIOR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE INTRODUCED MENTION OF IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE KMOB AND KBFM
TERMINAL FORECASTS DURING THE 11-16Z TIME FRAME, BUT KEPT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OUT OR ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS AT KPNS AND
KJKA WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. VFR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. /21
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022/
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA HAS
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECTING THE CLEAR,
PLEASANT DAY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER INLAND COUNTIES, WITH
LOWER TO MID 50S OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL THEN BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NEW
MEXICO AND IS SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MORE DIFFUSE ALONG THE WAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING ON MONDAY. BRIEF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE,
NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. MERELY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
SOME CLOUDS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE.
LASTLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
A MODERATE RISK FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. A LOW RISK WILL
THEN FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER, THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A HIGH RISK ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. /26
SHORT TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. AS AN
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL
AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN AND NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE PRIMARY UPPER DYNAMICS PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION. HOWEVER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF EVENTUAL INSTABILITY AND LIFT AVAILABLE TO
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /13
LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SFC HIGH WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE
70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. /13
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS, IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT LEAST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MIDWEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS;
HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL GALE
PRODUCTS AS WELL. /26
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 71 56 74 66 73 39 59 / 0 0 0 50 80 70 0 0
PENSACOLA 56 71 60 74 67 74 43 60 / 0 0 0 30 70 90 0 0
DESTIN 60 71 62 72 68 73 46 60 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 0 0
EVERGREEN 48 69 47 74 62 72 35 57 / 0 0 0 30 70 80 0 0
WAYNESBORO 45 68 49 72 61 69 34 54 / 0 0 0 60 90 40 0 0
CAMDEN 45 68 47 72 61 71 34 54 / 0 0 0 30 80 70 0 0
CRESTVIEW 47 73 52 75 63 75 38 60 / 0 0 0 20 60 90 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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