093
FXUS64 KMOB 251625
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 100-107 DEGREES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
OUR PATTERN REMAINS PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY YIELDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. WE BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE AREA
AND RIDGING SHIFTS WEST. OUR TROUGH LIFTS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
RIDGING COMES BACK INTO THE PICTURE BRINGING US BACK TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY THE PRODUCT OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, THINGS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITHOUT MORE ROBUST
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE AREA AND WE REALIZE MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. STILL ANTICIPATE
MOSTLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG WITH SOME MODEST INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOW LEVELS
OWING TO AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS TO
CARRY THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE SEE A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH UPPER
TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED TO BRING IN MOISTURE OFF THE GULF. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST FORCING OCCURRING ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SHEAR AND DEEP MOIST PROFILES
SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME WET MICROBURSTS WHERE CELL MERGERS OCCUR. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS COUPLED WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS IN ADDITION TO THE DEEP,
WARM MOIST AIRMASS MAY HELP BOLSTER SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S DIFFICULT TO TELL
AT THIS TIME WHICH LOCATIONS WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. AN INCH
OR TWO OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS MOST PROBABLE RIGHT NOW, WITH
LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS WE HEAD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ONCE WE GET PAST THIS, UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND UPPER TROUGHING
LIFTS OUT GIVING US IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
WE MAY STILL CONTEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY, BEST COVERAGE EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, BUT SUNDAY
LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE OF STORMS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAY ONCE AGAIN FEATURE SOME LIGHT, PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR
THAT COULD REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORY TO IFR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH NEAR OR LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING
CALM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WE TRANSITION OUT OF OUR DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
AND WINDS NEAR STORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 93 73 90 / 10 50 40 80
PENSACOLA 75 90 76 87 / 10 40 40 70
DESTIN 77 88 78 87 / 20 40 40 70
EVERGREEN 70 94 71 90 / 10 50 30 80
WAYNESBORO 72 95 72 92 / 10 50 40 80
CAMDEN 72 94 73 89 / 10 50 30 70
CRESTVIEW 71 92 72 89 / 20 50 30 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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