425
FXUS64 KMOB 020053
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
753 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND POINTS
EAST, WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GULF, AND
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
PLAINS MOVES EAST, THEN NORTHEAST AS THE CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE
DEFLECTS IT NORTHEAST. A "TAIL" OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAINS ENOUGH PRESENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ONSHORE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DANCE BETWEEN UPPER
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
GULF CONTINUES. FOR TODAY, BEST COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE
INFLUX (AND PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS AROUND 1.5") AND WEAKER
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER AREAS WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE. AM EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BUT NOT
QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS WEST. THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE RULES, WITH A
SLUG OF DRIER AIR (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 1')
MOVING NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF, AND
A SHUTTING OFF ANY RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AS IT
SHIFTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS BEGIN
FRIDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE. THROUGH
SATURDAY, BEST POPS REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY,
THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND NEAR SEVERE HAIL, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES IN THE 1500-200J/KG RANGE) AVAILABLE. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
MEH, WITH BULK WIND SHEAR BELOW 20KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY (A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY'S
GUIDANCE) IN RESPONSE AND STALLING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS USHERS IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND THE
PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ENDING MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE AND THE
ENSEMBLE LEANING NBM IS KEEPING RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE ADVERTISING THE FRONT STALLING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE MARINE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A BIT OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH RECENT DAYS, AND NO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE, AM
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN IN THE COMING
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
10, UPPER 70S SOUTH TO THE COAST. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE
(67-72). SOME MODERATION OCCURS INTO MID WEEK (WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S), BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THIS WEEK.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
COMING FRONTAL PASSAGE, MID 40S TO AROUND 50 BEHIND FOR MONDAY
NIGHT ON.
CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND IS BRINGING
CONTINUED BETTER SWELL TO AREA BEACHES. RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE RIP RISK AT THE MODERATE TO HIGH JUNCTURE THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH AREA BEACHES REPORTING RED
FLAGS AND A HIGH RIP RISK, A RP.S IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MVFR THE
POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA RESULTING IN SOME TEMPORARY IFR TO LIFR VISBYS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW MORNING.
BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASED IMPACTS TO SMALL
CRAFT IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 82 64 82 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 65 78 64 78 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 64 75 64 76 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 58 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 61 85 63 84 / 0 10 0 10
CAMDEN 59 85 60 83 / 10 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 58 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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