147
FXUS64 KMOB 130527
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1227 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER CENTRAL MS/AL. WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES ABOVE 2") SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH
THE HIGHER POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. WITH A FOCUSING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ORGANIZING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW (SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL MS/AL), ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVELS FLOW,
THE RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES INCREASES. INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT BEST
(MLCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 1000J/KG ON AVERAGE), ALONG WITH AN
850MB JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND COAST (AROUND 30KTS), BRINGING
A LIMITED POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
DECREASE IN MOISTURE, THOUGH HIGHEST POPS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE USUAL AFTERNOON INLAND/
NIGHT TIME ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
CONVECTION.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, BELOW SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAT INDICES
RISE TO AROUND 100 FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
DROPPING THE POPS A BIT MORE. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE REGION SEES AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE LEVELS AS AN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE
REGION. POPS INCREASE IN RESPONSE. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WHILST OTHER KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW. GOING WITH A COMPROMISE AROUND SEASONAL,
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS, HEAT INDICES
OVER THE WEEKEND RISE INTO THE 100-107 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOCALITIES SEEING HIGHER VALUES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE
WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP RISK, WITH A HIGHER RISK ON OUR
FLORIDA BEACHES. THE RIP RISK WILL EASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO A
LOW AS THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES AND TIDAL CYCLES SHRINKS.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FROM NEAR THE
COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SETTLE IN BY MID TO LATE MORNING FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. EXPECT REDUCTIONS
IN FLIGHT CATEGORY TO OR BELOW IFR UNDERNEATH ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS NEAR THE COAST LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS.
MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A COASTAL JET ORGANIZING ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINLY TO
OPEN GULF WATERS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER SYSTEM
CAUSING THIS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST, BRING A LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE FLOW, WITH A DAYTIME ONSHORE, NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE REGIME
RETURNING TO AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 88 72 91 / 20 60 30 30
PENSACOLA 74 89 76 92 / 40 50 40 30
DESTIN 76 89 78 90 / 50 50 50 30
EVERGREEN 69 86 69 89 / 40 70 30 30
WAYNESBORO 70 86 70 89 / 50 70 30 40
CAMDEN 70 83 70 86 / 60 90 30 50
CRESTVIEW 70 88 70 91 / 40 60 20 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.
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