591
FXUS64 KMOB 160151
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
851 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES OVER
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, CREATING AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. IN ADDITION, A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. THIS WILL FAVOR FOG, SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. AT THIS TIME, IT
APPEARS THAT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY, BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WEATHER SITUATION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RAISES CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
LATEST SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL TREES THAT
WERE DAMAGED BY THE EXTREME WIND EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STING
JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. WE PLAN TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND ADD SPECIAL WORDING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLY THIS EVENING TO ADD FOG AND WILL BE
AWAITING THE NEW LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE TO REFINE THE OVERALL
WIND THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTH WILL MOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MID-DAY FRIDAY AND SOUTH OF AREA WATERS BY 06Z/1AM FRIDAY
NIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS
1.1-1.5" NORTH OF THE COAST, 1.5" UP ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH).
THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO NEAR COASTAL AND OPEN GULF
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVER LAND AREAS, EASTERLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
LOOKING AT IMPACTS FOR LAND AREAS, THE FIRST IS A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 15KT/17MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30KTS/29-35MPH WITH
HIGH VALUES BEING POSSIBLE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COMBINED
WITH THE WINDS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AN INCREASE IN THE
RISK OF WILDFIRES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MORE BELOW). FOR MARINE
IMPACTS, READ BELOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FOR A NOSE-DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME DROP, FROM LOW 60S TO NEAR 70
TONIGHT TO THE MID 40S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTH OF
I-10.
FOR MONDAY ON, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND BUILDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
STATE LINE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE, WITH GENERAL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A DRY AIRMASS HELPING WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE WEEKEND, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS SUNDAY ON.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG, SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE, LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF, THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE
MOST PROBABLY ALONG THE COAST WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FURTHER
INLAND WHERE THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-13Z, ESPECIALLY AT KMOB. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A LIGHT, DIURNALLY VARIABLE, FLOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BECOMES A
STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK WILL SHIFT WINDS TO EASTERLY, WHILST REMAINING STRONG,
ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE ALONG WITH SOME AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO
GALES, A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, TAPERING TO JUST OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED AFTER THE GALES GOES DOWN, AND
LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS,
WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT CREATING THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT OVER AREAS WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS, ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 85 55 70 / 0 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 69 83 57 71 / 0 10 0 0
DESTIN 70 81 59 71 / 0 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 62 87 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 63 87 50 69 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 63 86 51 68 / 0 0 10 0
CRESTVIEW 64 86 56 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
GMZ630>636.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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