499  
FGUS72 KTAE 081923  
ESFTAE  
ALC031-045-061-067-069-FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-  
073-077-079-123-129-131-133-GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-  
087-095-099-131-155-173-177-185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-  
287-321-090330-  
 
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
323 PM EDT THU APR 8 2021 /223 PM CDT THU APR 8 2021/  
   
..MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
 
 
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RIVERINE  
FLOODING TO FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
   
FLOOD POTENTIAL AND CONCERNS
 
 
THE INITIAL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND  
MORE DEPENDENT ON WHERE STORMS INITIATE EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH  
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH  
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH  
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO  
GENERATE FLASH FLOODING OR ANY RIVERINE ISSUES ON ITS OWN, IT WILL  
CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR  
SATURDAY'S RAINFALL.  
 
SATURDAY'S SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ENERGETIC AND PRODUCE  
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THIS OCCURS OVER ALREADY SATURATED  
GROUNDS FROM FRIDAYS EVENT, THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING  
AND IN THE DAYS TO COME RIVERINE FLOODING. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE  
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA, THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THIS RESULTS  
IN AVERAGE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN  
HALF OF OUR REGION, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 8 INCHES  
POSSIBLE. LOWER VALUES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF AN ALBANY TO  
TALLAHASSEE LINE WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE  
DURATION OF THE EVENT.  
 
FOR IMPACTS WITH THIS RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN,  
ESPECIALLY DURING SATURDAYS RAINFALL EVENT. AREAS MOST PRONE  
TO FLASH FLOODING IN THIS EVENT WILL BE URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST  
ALABAMA, EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
 
RIVERINE FLOODING WILL TAKE TIME TO DEVELOP, GIVEN THE  
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE, CHIPOLA,  
APALACHICOLA, AND LOWER FLINT COULD ALL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING  
IN THE DAYS AHEAD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THESE BASINS THAT  
EXCEED 6 INCHES, COULD LEAD TO LOWER END MODERATE FLOODING BY NEXT  
WEEK. FURTHER EAST, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER COULD REACH MINOR  
FLOODING SHOULD 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALL UPSTREAM OF LEON COUNTY.  
OTHER REMAINING BASINS IN THE REGION COULD RISE INTO THE ACTION  
CATEGORY, BUT MINOR FLOODING IS UNLIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST  
FORECASTS.  
   
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
 
 
SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF A  
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ON THIS WEEKEND, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE  
ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA AS SOON AS FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
RESIDENTS LIVING IN AREAS VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING, SHOULD  
CONSIDER EVALUATING THEIR FLOOD RISK AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE  
ACTION TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AND PROPERTY FROM FLOOD DAMAGE.  
PEOPLE LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND AREA RIVERS SHOULD ALSO BE  
ALERT TO RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVEL AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION  
IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION BE SURE TO INTERACT WITH OUR OFFICE THROUGH  
TWITTER @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
 
GODSEY  
 
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