280  
FXUS62 KTAE 020044  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
844 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND IS  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERN  
EXTENT OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE WITHIN OUR COASTAL WATERS AND  
IMMEDIATE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS NORTH OF I10 THIS EVENING WITH  
AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN CHANCES OVER OUR LAND AREAS INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS PLENTY OF HIGH  
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. LOWS REMAIN ON  
TRACK WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO  
MEANDER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD  
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DESPITE HIGH CHANCES (70%) FOR TROPICAL  
DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL STILL BE MINIMAL LOCAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF  
HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS GIVEN ITS PROJECTED TRACK.  
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE TONIGHT FOR OUR INLAND REGIONS, AND  
REMAIN AROUND 20% FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MORNING. NEARLY  
EVERYONE WILL BE DRY TOMORROW, WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND THE SE BIG BEND  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR  
MOST OF THE CWA BUT THE PANHANDLE COAST AND SE BIG BEND HAVE  
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TOMORROW  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE  
MID-UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
THE OFFSHORE LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS POISED TO MEANDER FURTHER INTO THE  
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING  
CASCADES DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, SLUGS OF  
MOISTURE USHERED IN BY DEVELOPING NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD  
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT OVERALL  
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. BEST POTENTIAL IS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG  
BEND/ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE, WARM CONDITIONS ARE ON  
TAP FOR US. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S WHILE LOWS DROP INTO THE MUGGY MID/UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH  
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH AN AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES BY MID-WEEK. PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP  
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK  
MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS (578-580 DM  
RANGE). A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL  
SUPPORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER ONE TO OUR NORTH ON  
THURSDAY.  
 
WARM SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS DEFINED BY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW  
90S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST.  
THE WARMEST STRETCH IS SLATED TO BE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD  
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S OVERTAKE THE SERVICE AREA THANKS TO  
INCREASED HUMIDITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF TD #2 ARE IMPACTING THE COASTAL  
SECTIONS AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HAVE VCSH FOR THE FIRST  
FEW HOURS AT TLH AND ECP. VFR WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER  
SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS UNDERNEATH HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A  
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE  
WESTERN OFFSHORE LEGS THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY TO AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT  
OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING  
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM  
MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY ON FRIDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST  
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE  
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10-15 MPH TODAY. MIXING  
HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST  
GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES TODAY.  
THE BEST OVERLAY OF ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGHER MIXING  
HEIGHTS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL RESULT IN  
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY TRANSPORT  
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND MIXING HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 6,000 TO 8,000  
FEET WILL RESULT IN HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS  
WEEKEND. MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER. THERE ARE  
NO FLOODING CONCERNS BEYOND TODAY. ALL AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN  
GOOD SHAPE.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 84 67 89 68 / 40 30 10 0  
PANAMA CITY 82 69 88 70 / 50 50 20 0  
DOTHAN 83 66 87 67 / 20 10 10 0  
ALBANY 85 65 88 66 / 20 10 10 0  
VALDOSTA 83 64 87 66 / 30 0 10 0  
CROSS CITY 86 65 89 66 / 60 30 30 10  
APALACHICOLA 80 71 83 71 / 50 50 20 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR  
FLZ108-112-114-115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ770-772.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...WORSTER  
SHORT TERM...DOBBS  
LONG TERM....DOBBS  
AVIATION...SCHOLL  
MARINE...IG3  
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY  
HYDROLOGY...IG3  
 
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