130  
FXUS62 KTAE 091007  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
607 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
TODAY WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A STORMIER PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW  
DIGS SOUTHWARDS AND CUTS OFF WEST OF THE AREA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY  
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS A SURFACE  
LOW DEVELOPS WITH IT. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD START TO SEE AN  
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE  
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND HAIL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF  
THE AREA WHERE MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED.  
 
FOR TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE CLOSER  
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BRINGING WITH IT A LARGE INFLUX OF  
MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT, AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
PANHANDLE, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
IN SHORT, A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED  
BETWEEN THE ROUNDS. SO THE WEEKEND ISN'T LOOKING LIKE A COMPLETE  
WASHOUT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WHEN IT DOES RAIN, IT WILL BE HEAVY  
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3" TO 6" FORECAST TO FALL BETWEEN  
NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8"+ POSSIBLE.  
 
THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.  
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN FORECAST TO  
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A THIRD ROUND IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EAST AND MAY NOT  
OCCUR IN OUR AREA, SO WE SHALL SEE.  
 
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THOSE ROUNDS  
OF HEAVY RAIN. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT HAIL  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR  
TWO ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY  
DUE TO A WARM FRONT BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE  
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE RAIN  
FALLS. EVEN THEN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO NEAR 70.  
 
DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN AS THE H5 LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE  
REGION. THIS PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AND BACK NEAR 90 BY MID-WEEK WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S  
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
BRIEF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-  
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. AS WE  
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO  
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR  
CONDITIONS WITHIN DOWNPOURS. FOR TONIGHT, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.  
MODERATE, TO PERHAPS FRESH, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE  
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF  
WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS VERY MUCH POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW  
STRONG THE LOW ENDS UP BEING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE  
VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
THERE ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025  
 
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY  
AND SATURDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND EAST OF A PANAMA  
CITY TO DOTHAN LINE FOR SUNDAY, WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY  
FORECAST TO FALL.  
 
THREE-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE (FFG) IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4" TO  
5.5", WHICH MAY BE ATTAINABLE WITHIN ANY OF THE ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE REGION. IT'S ALSO WORTH  
MENTIONING THAT AS EACH ROUND OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH THAT THE FFG  
WOULD COME DOWN. WHICH IS WHY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING ARE HIGHEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE A FLOOD  
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS  
JUST A BIT TOO HIGH TO ISSUE ONE EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SAID, IT  
DOES APPEAR ONE IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
ON THE RIVERINE FRONT, MOST RIVERS START TO NEAR ACTION STAGE WITH  
SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SO  
WHILE RISES ON THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED, RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT  
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED UNLESS RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED EVEN THE HIGHEST  
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, OR MORE THAN 10-12".  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 85 67 80 66 / 60 70 100 80  
PANAMA CITY 80 67 79 67 / 80 80 90 70  
DOTHAN 84 65 79 64 / 60 80 90 70  
ALBANY 87 66 78 64 / 40 70 90 80  
VALDOSTA 87 67 82 66 / 50 50 90 70  
CROSS CITY 87 67 85 65 / 60 40 90 70  
APALACHICOLA 80 69 78 68 / 60 80 90 80  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-  
115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ735.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DVD  
SHORT TERM...REESE  
LONG TERM....REESE  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...REESE  
FIRE WEATHER...DVD  
HYDROLOGY...REESE  
 
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