810
FXUS62 KTAE 162318
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY] A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION [331 PM EST]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATHCY FOG, BUT
THE CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BUT CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION, BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
REMAIN OVER OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BRING A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG
STORMS (POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM) OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN
THE HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT. PINNING THE DETAILS OF ANY
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME, BUT PLEASE PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS DETAILS ABOUT POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AS FOR RAINFALL, THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ADVECTS A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE MONDAY....STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. COLDEST
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LOW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICK SO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING MUCH, IF ANY, INCREASE IN AREA
RIVERS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 34 65 47 71 54 / 0 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 41 63 56 69 59 / 0 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 36 62 50 68 55 / 0 0 20 20 20
ALBANY 35 63 49 66 54 / 0 0 20 20 10
VALDOSTA 35 65 47 69 52 / 0 0 0 10 0
CROSS CITY 35 66 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 41 63 53 68 57 / 0 0 0 10 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM...DOBBS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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