606
FXUS62 KTAE 091155
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
655 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
- FOG RETURNS TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS AS WARM
MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NE GULF. POCKETS
OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY, IF TRAVELING, SLOW DOWN AND GIVE
YOURSELF ENOUGH TIME, EXPECT DELAYS WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INDUCE A
COUPLE SHOWERS, HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.
IN THE SHORTWAVE'S WAKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NORTH OF THE REGION POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND SW GEORGIA. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO GET MODEL CONSENSUS ON TIMING,
WITH MODELS HONING IN ON A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE'S STILL
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND TILT. REGARDLESS,
PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE WILL STILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR TO WORK
WITH, SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
EXPECT FOGGY MORNINGS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WARM MOIST AIR FLOWS
OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE NE GULF. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY CAUSES
FOG TO START ALONG THE COASTLINE AND PUSH INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING. PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG WILL BE LIKELY, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THUS,
GIVE YOURSELF AMPLE TIME TO GET TO YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING AND
EXPECT DELAYS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOG
IS LIKELY TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THERE'S SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH LIFR VSBYS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS ECP/DHN/ABY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T THERE TO ISSUE
LIFR VSBYS AS THE PREVAILING GROUP IN THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES PREVAILING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR APALACHEE BAY, INCREASES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
CRITICALLY LOW RH IS FORECAST ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN GEORGIA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AGAIN. RH ELSEWHERE WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRING SOME SURFACE MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA. LOW DISPERSIONS ARE
A CONCERN ALONG THE GULF COAST THANKS TO THE COLDER WATERS OF THE
GULF, BUT FAIR TO GOOD DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND MONDAY.
WHILE DISPERSIONS REMAIN POOR ALONG THE COAST AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, FAIR TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST INLAND AS
WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS
DEVELOP.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 46 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 53 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 71 49 74 56 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 70 46 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 71 43 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 72 39 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 62 50 65 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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