357
FXUS62 KTAE 231553
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1053 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021
UPDATE
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR
THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
LESSENS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION [621 AM EST]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE COAST TODAY WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. WITH
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS THAT
OCCUR SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE FROM
THE WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, AS IT WEAKENS IT'LL STILL HAVE OUR REGION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MEANS WAA WILL HELP PUSH OUR TEMPS INTO
THE 70S WHILE ALSO INCREASING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S. SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 50S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WE SHOULD EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE AROUND 50-70% FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN SW GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA WITH LOWER POPS ACROSS OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE, THE
MOIST AIR MASS IT WILL HELP ADVECT INTO OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN AND DOESN'T MAKE ITS
WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WARM AIR MASS STAYS IN PLACE UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SECOND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING OUR AREA. BEING THAT THIS LOOKS TO BE NEUTRALLY TILTED
TROUGH WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS DEVELOPS IN THE COMING DAYS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO STEADILY
DROP FROM THE MID 60S (TUES) TO THE MID 40S (SAT). EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO ALSO STEADILY DROP FROM THE MID 70S (TUES) TO THE MID 60S
(SAT).
AVIATION
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TLH AND
ECP BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHOW A MODEST INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND UNTIL
A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MOVES IT ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAY 7 REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES.
THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 64 53 66 55 74 / 10 20 0 0 10
PANAMA CITY 64 56 67 58 72 / 20 20 0 0 30
DOTHAN 61 49 62 55 73 / 0 10 0 0 40
ALBANY 61 47 61 53 73 / 0 10 0 0 20
VALDOSTA 64 50 64 54 76 / 0 20 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 55 71 55 76 / 20 20 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 57 65 57 70 / 30 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DOBBS
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM...OLIVER
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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