806  
FXUS62 KTAE 050156  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
856 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 855 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.  
WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE  
DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN REMAIN  
POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
A BUSY NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY WAS LOWERED  
BELOW GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD  
COVERAGE. STILL EXPECT TO REACH THE UPPER 70S LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
THE PANHANDLE AND SE ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP,  
THEY BE BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE  
IN THE LOW 60S, WITH A FEW UPPER 50S IN OUR GA COUNTIES.  
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE  
REGION (AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT) FROM THE WEST AND MAKE ITS WAY EAST  
THROUGH THE DAY. POPS ARE NEARLY 100 PERCENT FOR THE CWA, EXCEPT  
THE SE BIG BEND IS AROUND 70%. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH  
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES. THE  
WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE CWA, SAVE FOR THE EXTREME SE BIG BEND, IN  
A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS  
TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
TUESDAY'S STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION WITH THE AXIS OF  
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE  
SERVICE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.  
RAIN CHANCES THEN FIZZLE OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY PULLS  
AWAY. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 80 DEGREES WHILE OVERNIGHT  
LOWS COOL FROM LOW 60S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY 50S WEDNESDAY-  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY POST COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. THERE WON'T BE MUCH, IF ANY, COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS  
SYSTEM, AND IT WILL ACTUALLY BE QUITE WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BRING BACK WARM AND  
MOIST AIR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.  
 
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH TAKES SHAVE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY  
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD.  
WE'LL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE 120+ KT JET ON FRIDAY  
WITH RIDGING TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,  
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FLINT RIVER. PWATS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 1.5-  
1.7 INCH RANGE, WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.  
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THAT THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE  
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHICH MAY SET UP SOME TRAINING  
CONVECTION. MORE DETAILS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN THE  
HYDROLOGY SECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, WE  
COULD SEE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS RATHER  
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR CENTRAL TIME ZONE COUNTIES OUTLINED IN A  
15-29% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY, MOSTLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH  
NO RISK DELINEATED CURRENTLY FOR SATURDAY. WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS  
OUT, SO DETAILS WILL BE FINE-TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
THE TROUGH FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT OF OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
WITH RAIN ENDING ON SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES, THOUGH CLOSER TO  
NORMAL, RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 709 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE REGION MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING ALL TAF  
SITES THROUGH THE DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATERS  
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AS A CLUSTER OF MARITIME  
CONVECTION BARRELS THROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE GUSTY WINDS AND  
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THE NEXT  
36 HRS WITH CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. BOATING  
WEATHER TEMPORARILY IMPROVES MID-WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM  
ARRIVES EARLY THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
A HUMID AIRMASS AND WET PATTERN PRECLUDES FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE  
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW  
AS A MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE  
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTIVE WEATHER  
ARRIVES MID-WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL  
WETTING-RAIN POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
THE FIRST POTENTIAL COMES TUESDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES, THOUGH LOCALIZED TOTALS  
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 3-5 INCHES. THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE  
TRACK AND LOCATION OF STORMS TOMORROW, WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS  
THERE'S A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. SHOULD THE RAIN FALL IN A  
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS,  
AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR TUESDAY.  
 
LATE WEEK'S EVENT COULD BRING EVEN MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY  
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES. BUT THERE IS  
A HIGHER END POSSIBILITY WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE  
REASONABLE WORST CASE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. PLACEMENT AND  
TOTALS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.  
 
LOOKING AT THE RIVERS, THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME  
RISES, BUT WON'T CAUSE MANY ISSUES ON THE RIVERS. THE SECOND ROUND  
OF RAINFALL HOWEVER COULD PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR THE RIVERS. GIVEN  
THAT THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA AND  
GEORGIA, EXPECT RISES ON THE ACF BASIN AND POSSIBLY THE PEA AND  
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BASINS AS WELL. THE DEGREE OF RISES AND POTENTIAL  
RIVER FLOODING REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT MOST ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT  
MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO  
SOME EXTENT OVER THE COMING DAYS. STAY TUNED.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 62 70 63 79 / 40 100 80 10  
PANAMA CITY 63 70 64 76 / 70 100 50 10  
DOTHAN 62 69 62 79 / 60 100 60 10  
ALBANY 59 68 63 78 / 30 100 90 10  
VALDOSTA 59 71 62 78 / 20 90 90 20  
CROSS CITY 61 75 64 78 / 20 70 80 30  
APALACHICOLA 63 68 63 72 / 50 90 70 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DVD  
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY  
SHORT TERM...IG3  
LONG TERM....YOUNG  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...IG3  
FIRE WEATHER...IG3  
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG  
 
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