628
FXUS62 KTAE 211340
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
940 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER FROM
THE COASTAL TO INLAND COUNTIES VIA OUTER RAINBANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN WALTON AND COASTAL
BAY COUNTIES WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN STRONGER RAINBANDS.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAY AT ALL AREA BEACHES ALONG WITH HIGH SURF. IT IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE
HEED THE BEACH FLAGS AND ADVICE FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS OF THE 8AM EDT NHC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY, THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SSW OF PANAMA
CITY WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WHILE MOVING NW AT 5 MPH.
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT BERTHA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED, EVIDENT BY DEEP CONVECTION FILLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SWIRL OF CLOUDS. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS
SINCE SPIKED NEAR BUOY 42039 IN ADDITION TO INCREASES IN SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS THERE AND BUOY 42027.
AIRCRAFT RECON HAS BEEN INVESITAGING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING, AND
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS (850 MB) OF 62 KTS. THIS FINDING
WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE WINDS CLOSE TO 50 KTS, SO IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRSING TO SEE IF THE 11AM EDT ADVISORY SHOWS
BERTHA AS A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. MEANWHILE, PERIODIC RAIN
BANDS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. MULTIPLE GUST REPORTS OF 40+ MPH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT MORE OF
THESE REPORTS TO COME IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
RAIN CHANCES WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LASTEST TRENDS WITH THE
EXPLICIT MENTION OF "GUSTY WINDS" IN THE HOURLY WX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SQUALLY RAINBANDS.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND PERIODIC BANDS OF RAIN
THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE ASHORE AND INLAND THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PONDING ON THE ROADWAYS AND ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITHIN ANY OF THE RAIN
BANDS AS THEY'LL BE INCREDIBLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THAT COULD
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO IN 15-30 MINUTES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR
90 THANKS TO THE PASSING SHOWERS FROM BERTHA'S OUTER RAIN BANDS.
THEY'LL MODERATE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AS
THE RAIN BANDS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS BERTHA TRUDGES WEST.
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AROUND BERTHA WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD ALONG WITH
IT FOR THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, OR VERY SUMMER-LIKE. AN H5 TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL SEND A FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL NEARBY AND WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND. WHERE IT ULTIMATELY STALLS REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS
TIME, WHICH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AS OF NOW, MOST DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE,
AND AI GUIDANCE HAS IT STALLING NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WE'LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS AS WE GET CLOSER.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HEAT
INDICES WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 100 TO 105 LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE TERMINALS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OUTER BANDS OF
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL SHRA IS MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT ECP, TLH, AND VLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF TSRA IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY TODAY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AT TLH AND ECP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AT 10 PM CDT MONDAY, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED 140 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE NEAR 35 KNOTS, OR 40 MPH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
EAST TO WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BERTHA MOVES AWAY.
SEVERAL BANDS OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
OCCASIONAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA'S OUTER
RAIN BANDS. HOWEVER, THESE RAIN BANDS WILL CONTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1.5 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS GREATEST
SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE SEVERAL BANDS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION.
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING GIVEN THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN APALACHEE BAY WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ON THE NEXT HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. WATER LEVELS OF 2 TO
2.5 FT MHHW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING BEACH ACCESS ROADS
AND OTHER COASTAL ADJACENT PROPERTIES.
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEST OF INDIAN PASS, WATER LEVELS ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 1.5 FT EVEN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. AS
WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO BE MORE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY, A PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE HIGH TIDES LATE
TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. WATER LEVELS OF 1.5 TO 2
FT MHHW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS TYPICALLY
RESULTS IN FLOODING THROUGH BEACH ACCESS AREAS INTO PARKING LOTS AND
SOME LOW-LYING ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DROP ENOUGH WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 87 77 90 76 / 80 40 50 20
PANAMA CITY 87 79 89 79 / 80 70 60 40
DOTHAN 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 60 20
ALBANY 90 76 92 75 / 50 10 50 10
VALDOSTA 91 76 93 75 / 50 10 20 10
CROSS CITY 90 77 92 76 / 60 20 10 10
APALACHICOLA 85 80 87 80 / 80 60 60 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-
112-114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ108-
112-114.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ108-112.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114-
115-127.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR FLZ115-118-127-
128-134.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ735-751-752.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ770-772.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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