986
FXUS62 KTAE 150508
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
108 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019
AVIATION
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND VLD EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION [812 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA OR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE RACES WEST. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THE
SEABREEZE WILL MAINLY BE TAPPING INTO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
HUMBERTO WILL STRENGTHEN AND SLOW DOWN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
PRIOR TO MAKING ITS TURN EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME, FLOW AROUND THE TC WILL HELP CREATE A CHANNEL FOR
ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S YIELDING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES.
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
AROUND MID-WEEK, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND RESULT IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH DRY AIR
STILL ALOFT, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT
NONETHELESS, SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. DUE TO A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOONS STARTING MID-WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
MARINE
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING TOMORROW.
THEREAFTER, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
THOUGH DISPERSION INDICES MAY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 95 73 95 73 97 / 10 0 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 92 75 93 76 94 / 10 10 10 0 0
DOTHAN 93 71 94 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 93 72 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 92 71 93 71 95 / 10 0 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 92 74 94 73 95 / 20 10 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 91 76 91 76 92 / 20 10 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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