530
FXUS62 KTAE 280054
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
754 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 754 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS. USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF DEALING WITH FLAMES OUTDOORS, AND FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS AND
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS.
- A LENGTHY PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
- A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND EXACT TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED
THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT FILLS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS, CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RHS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 15 TO 20% WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, AND WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT BE
POSITIONED IDEALLY FOR A RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW US TO DECOUPLE (WHEN THE
SURFACE COOLS AND A STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS) AND GIVE LOCATIONS
THE LIGHT/CALM WINDS NECESSARY FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, DID BLEND THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO DROP TO THE UPPER
20S IN THE COLDER LOCATIONS AND AROUND FREEZING ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT
THE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND, FOR SOME, WELCOME CHANGE TO THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR RAIN WE'VE SEEN IN SOME TIME.
PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL IN
CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT AS THE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ADVANCES, EXPECT A QUICKLY MODIFYING AIRMASS
AS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THIS FIRST FRONTAL FEATURE, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL APPROACH THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BUT MOST
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY STALLS THIS FEATURE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS. AS WE MOVE FURTHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEEKEND
AND QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECONDARY
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON THE SETUP OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, THOSE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CERTAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR RAINFALL, WHILE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH, CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS INCREASED. AT THE HIGHER END OF
RAINFALL TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF OCCURING) AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 2.5
INCHES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. ON THE LOW END
(90% CHANCE OF OCCURING, I.E. WHAT WE'RE MOST CONFIDENT WILL OCCUR
AT A MINIMUM), THOSE TOTALS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL WITH AMOUNTS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, AGAIN
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THIS RAINFALL WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT, BUT EVEN IN
THE HIGHER END POSSIBILITIES, IT WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO END THE
DROUGHT AS THAT WILL TAKE SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
TO EVEN THINGS OUT.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK LOOKS
POSSIBLE SO FURTHER RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE SETTLING DOWN TO 5-10 KT AT ALL TERMINALS. A GRADUAL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOME GUSTS OF 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT ECP AND DHN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, AND A
LENGTHY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY SATURDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A FRONT TODAY IN
ADDITION TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS, WHEN CONSIDERING CRITICALLY
LOW RH AMIDST WIDESPREAD EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT A GREATER FIRE DANGER THREAT DESPITE THE
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. FIRE CONCERNS BEGIN TO
DECREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 139 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
THE NEXT POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE
REGION THE BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
SOME TIME, BUT MODEL SPREAD ON AMOUNTS REMAINS HIGH. THE MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS PAINT 1-2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH 0.25-1 INCH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON DROUGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME, EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. THE
MOST RECENT LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 34 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 62 38 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 58 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 59 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 62 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 63 40 57 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EST /1 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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