546
FXUS62 KTAE 081947
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
- INCREASING HEAT THIS WORK WEEK. THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR
DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THE HEAT.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
EACH AFTERNOON AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO OUR AREA
BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TO
ENTER THE SURF ON HIGH RISK DAYS. PLEASE HEED THE BEACH FLAGS
AND ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
A SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EVEN SO, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, FURTHEST AWAY
FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND NEARER TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA. WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE LOW 100S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGING ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF THIS SCENARIO. AS THIS
OCCURS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A BREAK FROM THE
HEAT IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE
IN THE MODELS WITH HOW ROBUST CONVECTION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THE GFS SEEMS TO PULL A GREATER AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION AND ALSO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AT A FASTER RATE, WHILE THE EURO JUST SHOWS AN ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCE PATTERN, GENERALLY MORE SEA BREEZE FOCUSED, WITH LESS
SUPPRESSION FROM A MID LEVEL RIDGE. IN ANY EVENT, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN TREND COOLER AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIMITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN AND
AROUND KVLD AND KABY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30S FOR THOSE TWO
TAF SITES WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA WILL PROVIDE GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TURNING MORE ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE COAST
AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
EACH AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OF COURSE, AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUMMER THUNDERSTORM WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRING VERY
QUICKLY, BUT THERE IS NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA AND FLINT RIVERS AS THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
MOST BENEFICIAL RECENT RAINS. THE DROUGHT FEATURES LONG TERM
IMPACTS THAT ARE AFFECTING RIVERS, LAKES, AND PONDS THAT ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL DESPITE RECENT RAINS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LOCAL DROUGHT IMPACTS, PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 89 72 93 / 20 20 10 40
PANAMA CITY 75 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 20
DOTHAN 74 88 71 92 / 10 60 30 10
ALBANY 74 86 70 92 / 20 30 20 10
VALDOSTA 72 88 71 93 / 10 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 72 91 73 94 / 0 10 0 40
APALACHICOLA 77 86 76 87 / 10 20 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM....GODSEY
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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