021
FXUS62 KTAE 311533
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1133 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN THIS MORNING ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES ACROSS ALABAMA. SOME BREAKS
WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COUNTIES. OVERALL,
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS COME IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGGRESSIVE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT
STILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IF
INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN ANY SEVERE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
HAIL AND TORNADO CONCERNS ARE PRESENT, BUT THESE WOULD MOSTLY
LIKELY EXIST IN ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
SQUALL LINE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG, THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS AN
APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WEST OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL THINKING HAS
NOT REALLY CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. THE SPC HAS MAINTAINED
AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA, DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS. SECONDARY THREATS INCLUDE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF THE LINE, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE PLENTIFUL IN OUR
AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE ON
THE OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS. POINT SOUNDINGS FOR DOTHAN AT 1 PM CT ON
MULTIPLE MODELS ALSO SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN AN
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, DCAPE VALUES IN THE 700-800 J/KG RANGE
COULD GIVE A BOOST TO THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, DESPITE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW FAR EAST THE LINE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE BEST DYNAMICS
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DECENT INSTABILITY AND DCAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXIST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL
HELP SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT WITH THE LINE AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY THAT MORNING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND CUT
INTO THE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, DYNAMICS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM WILL HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THIS SHORT TERM. THE
PARENT COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON TUESDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, BUT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY AS
THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. POPS FOR TUESDAY
ARE MINIMAL RANGING AROUND 10-20 PERCENT. WE CAN EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO QUICKLY RETURN WEDNESDAY, KEEPING OUR
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, AND OUR TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY'S AND WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS. OUR EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES MAY HAVE TEMPERATURES REACH 90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WILL KEEP US HIGH AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
EXPERIENCING THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID-60S.
AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE OF THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH WOULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW, POPS RANGES FROM 40-60 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THIS
IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
TIMING, STORM MODE, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARDS. WE WILL PROVIDE
UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MESSY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, AND CEILINGS
WILL LIFT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
FOR OUR MARINE ZONES, PARTICULARLY THE NEAR-SHORE ZONES.
A LINE (OR BROKEN LINE) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A
FEW WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY LEADING TO CAUTIONARY TO NEAR-
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS. MINRH VALUES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT IS FORECAST TO
BE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS. WITH NO OTHER SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. SPOTTERS SHOULD SAFELY REPORT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR DAMAGE BY CALLING THE
OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 79 64 83 65 / 70 30 20 0
PANAMA CITY 74 65 79 66 / 80 30 20 0
DOTHAN 76 62 82 64 / 90 20 10 0
ALBANY 77 61 83 63 / 90 30 10 0
VALDOSTA 80 65 84 64 / 70 40 20 0
CROSS CITY 79 64 83 63 / 30 20 10 0
APALACHICOLA 74 65 75 66 / 60 30 20 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114-
115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GMZ735.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ735.
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MONTGOMERY
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