096  
FXUS62 KTAE 220010  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
810 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECP WHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [421 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A NEAR ABSENCE OF CONVECTION  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT CONVECTION MANAGED TO GET  
GOING NEAR CROSS CITY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE AND MOISTURE POOLING  
WAS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WHILE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE  
GULF COAST WILL BE ISOLATED...THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAUSE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS  
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE  
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, MOSTLY OVER THE SE AL COUNTIES AND THE CENTRAL  
FL PANHANDLE.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A  
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PARTLY TO  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE, DIMINISHING  
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM WILL  
REMAIN DRY. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO  
INCREASE. HIGHS WED/THU WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.  
 
   
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE THE  
STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE  
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AS WELL. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
TEMPS THIS MODEL CYCLE CAME IN QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS  
FORECASTS, 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. I DON'T SEE ANY VALID  
REASON FOR THIS AS IT SEEMS THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN THE  
HIGHER RANGE. NO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AND THE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS JUST AS STRONG AS WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. SO WILL KEEP  
SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 90S, SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW SPOTS  
HITTING 100 AND MONDAY, A DEG OR TWO WARMER, WITH MANY SPOTS AT  
100-101. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME FRAME ARE AROUND 89 DEGREES.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-105 FOR SAT, SUN AND MONDAY.  
 
THE LAST OFFICIAL 100 DEGREE DAYS (MEASURED AT EACH AIRPORT) FOR THE  
FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AS FOLLOWS:  
 
DOTHAN, AL: JULY 1, 2012  
VALDOSTA, GA: AUGUST 23, 2014  
PANAMA CITY, FL: AUGUST 26, 2014  
TALLAHASSEE, FL: AUGUST 23, 2016  
ALBANY, GA: JUNE 25, 2018  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY, THEN DIMINISHING  
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH  
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO  
3 FEET. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CHATAHOOCHEE AND  
APALACHICOLA RIVERS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER  
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.  
RISING TEMPERATURES AND NEXT TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE COURSE  
OF AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH  
REGARDS TO FUELS CURING AND RISING FIRE POTENTIAL.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE'S ONLY A 10% CHANCE OR LESS OF A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING  
IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 66 95 71 92 70 / 0 10 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 70 87 72 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 0  
DOTHAN 66 92 69 92 69 / 0 10 0 0 0  
ALBANY 71 94 71 93 71 / 0 10 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 70 94 68 93 68 / 10 10 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 70 94 67 92 67 / 10 10 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 70 87 73 85 72 / 0 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DVD  
NEAR TERM...PP  
SHORT TERM...LN/PP  
LONG TERM...LN/PP  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...PP  
FIRE WEATHER...ARS  
HYDROLOGY...LN/PP  
 
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