179
FXUS62 KTAE 230129
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
UPDATE
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK, NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION [608 PM EST]
NEAR TERM [TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]
REGION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN
TROUGHS OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME
TIME, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE WESTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE. SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED OVER LAND AREAS, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
THUNDER OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
ANY STORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
BY SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED TO OUR EAST. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS A GULF LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POPS
AROUND 30 WILL BE LIMITED TO OFFSHORE AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE MID-50S AND LOW-60S SATURDAY TO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. SIMILARLY, LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO THE UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AT DHN, ABY, AND VLD.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ECP AND TLH
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BOTH AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE ALABAMA, SW GEORGIA,
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS, AND THE SLOW PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. OTHERWISE, THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN WILL REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD DUE TO UPSTREAM
DAM RELEASES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 43 65 54 71 40 / 10 10 50 40 0
PANAMA CITY 45 64 58 68 44 / 20 30 80 40 0
DOTHAN 40 57 51 63 38 / 20 30 80 40 0
ALBANY 39 59 51 66 39 / 10 20 70 50 0
VALDOSTA 41 63 53 71 41 / 10 10 40 40 10
CROSS CITY 45 68 55 74 43 / 10 0 20 20 10
APALACHICOLA 47 63 58 69 44 / 10 10 70 40 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...BUNKER
NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...SKEEN
AVIATION...BUNKER
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BUNKER
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
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