361
FXUS62 KTAE 061801
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
201 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, THOUGH
NUISANCE FLOODING, LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS, TAKE FREQUENT
COOLING BREAKS INDOORS OR AT LEAST IN THE SHADE. STAY HYDRATED.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50 PERCENT) OF DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 107 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL, SOUTHWEST GA,
AND THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. WHILE
SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP WITH THE SEABREEZE IN THE FL COUNTIES,
THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST,
CENTERED ON LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING DCAPE
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH WHILE COLD
AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 1 INCH). AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, EXPECT IT
TO WEAKEN AS CIN INCREASES, ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WOULD
POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL, WHICH IS HIGHEST IN THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA. PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY BY LATE TONIGHT.
MONDAY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE MOST PROLIFIC
IN THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, WITH LESS COVERAGE NORTHWEST.
NOT AS MUCH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ELEVATED DCAPE STILL
SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN
THE 105-109F RANGE MAINLY IN THE FL PANHANDLE, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL KEEP A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER BY FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER IN THE LOWER 90S.
THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DURING THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SEABREEZE WON'T MAKE A LOT OF NORTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY WITH
STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. KEPT PROB30 MENTION OF TS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM ECP-TLH-VLD WHEREAS MORE ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH SE
AL AND SW GA AND KEPT MENTION OUT OF DHN-ABY. HOWEVER, EXPECT A
GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL GA LATER TODAY
AND MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GREATER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AND ADDED TEMPOS AT DHN-ABY-VLD AS THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARDS FL AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES TLH OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THAT CONVECTION, LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP FROM ABY-VLD TOWARDS DAWN INTO MID
MORNING. WEST WINDS CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE MORNING MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
LIGHT AND GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. ON
MONDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, FORCING A SHIFT TO GENTLE AND MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST
BREEZES WILL WEAKEN AND TURN BACK SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE WATERS
EACH MORNING, BRINGING SUDDEN WIND GUSTS, LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND
BECOME MORE SOLID BY TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE DISTRICTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG, BRINGING
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. OTHERWISE, LOW DISPERSION MAY PERSIST INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE FL BIG BEND. MEANWHILE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105-109F ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY IN THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL AND THE WESTERN FL BIG BEND.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THROUGH MONDAY, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SHORT-
LIVED NUISANCE VARIETY BENEATH HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
IMPACTING URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA
MAY BE MOST IMPACTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY THE FL COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 94 75 92 73 / 40 50 80 30
PANAMA CITY 90 78 91 75 / 40 40 70 60
DOTHAN 95 74 93 72 / 30 50 50 30
ALBANY 96 74 91 72 / 50 70 60 30
VALDOSTA 94 73 90 72 / 40 60 70 30
CROSS CITY 92 74 89 73 / 30 50 80 50
APALACHICOLA 89 77 88 75 / 30 40 70 60
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ124>131-147-148.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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