810  
FXUS62 KTAE 162318  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
618 PM EST WED JAN 16 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY] A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ARE POSSIBLE  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH BRIEF MVFR  
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [331 PM EST]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATHCY FOG, BUT  
THE CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]
 
 
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK  
BUT CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS THE FLOW TURNS  
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE  
REGION, BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL  
REMAIN OVER OUR GA AND AL COUNTIES AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FL PANHANDLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD  
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS  
SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASING IN  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL FALL EARLY  
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH  
SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BRING A RISK OF SEVERE  
WEATHER, BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG  
STORMS (POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM) OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN  
THE HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT. PINNING THE DETAILS OF ANY  
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME, BUT PLEASE PAY  
CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS AS DETAILS ABOUT POTENTIAL  
SEVERE WEATHER BECOME MORE CLEAR.  
 
AS FOR RAINFALL, THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL  
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH  
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS  
THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ADVECTS A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES  
POSSIBLE MONDAY....STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. COLDEST  
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.  
 
EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SOUTHERLY  
FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH  
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL  
REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS  
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AREA RIVERS CONTINUE TO RECEDE ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT FRONTAL  
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICK SO WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS  
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING MUCH, IF ANY, INCREASE IN AREA  
RIVERS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 34 65 47 71 54 / 0 0 0 10 10  
PANAMA CITY 41 63 56 69 59 / 0 0 10 10 10  
DOTHAN 36 62 50 68 55 / 0 0 20 20 20  
ALBANY 35 63 49 66 54 / 0 0 20 20 10  
VALDOSTA 35 65 47 69 52 / 0 0 0 10 0  
CROSS CITY 35 66 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 10 0  
APALACHICOLA 41 63 53 68 57 / 0 0 0 10 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...DOBBS  
SHORT TERM...DOBBS  
LONG TERM...DOBBS  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...DOBBS  
FIRE WEATHER...DVD  
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS  
 
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