096
FXUS62 KTAE 220010
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECP WHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION [421 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN A NEAR ABSENCE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT CONVECTION MANAGED TO GET
GOING NEAR CROSS CITY AS THE GULF SEABREEZE AND MOISTURE POOLING
WAS ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. WHILE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE
GULF COAST WILL BE ISOLATED...THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, MOSTLY OVER THE SE AL COUNTIES AND THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE, DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM WILL
REMAIN DRY. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. HIGHS WED/THU WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE THE
STORY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS RISING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AS WELL. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPS THIS MODEL CYCLE CAME IN QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. I DON'T SEE ANY VALID
REASON FOR THIS AS IT SEEMS THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS STILL IN THE
HIGHER RANGE. NO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS JUST AS STRONG AS WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. SO WILL KEEP
SIMILAR TEMPS TO WHAT WE HAD BEFORE. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, SATURDAY/SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW SPOTS
HITTING 100 AND MONDAY, A DEG OR TWO WARMER, WITH MANY SPOTS AT
100-101. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME FRAME ARE AROUND 89 DEGREES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-105 FOR SAT, SUN AND MONDAY.
THE LAST OFFICIAL 100 DEGREE DAYS (MEASURED AT EACH AIRPORT) FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DOTHAN, AL: JULY 1, 2012
VALDOSTA, GA: AUGUST 23, 2014
PANAMA CITY, FL: AUGUST 26, 2014
TALLAHASSEE, FL: AUGUST 23, 2016
ALBANY, GA: JUNE 25, 2018
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY, THEN DIMINISHING
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO
3 FEET. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CHATAHOOCHEE AND
APALACHICOLA RIVERS. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
RISING TEMPERATURES AND NEXT TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE COURSE
OF AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH
REGARDS TO FUELS CURING AND RISING FIRE POTENTIAL.
HYDROLOGY
THERE'S ONLY A 10% CHANCE OR LESS OF A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING
IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 95 71 92 70 / 0 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 87 72 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 0
DOTHAN 66 92 69 92 69 / 0 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 71 94 71 93 71 / 0 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 70 94 68 93 68 / 10 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 70 94 67 92 67 / 10 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 70 87 73 85 72 / 0 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...LN/PP
LONG TERM...LN/PP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...PP
FIRE WEATHER...ARS
HYDROLOGY...LN/PP
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