177  
FXUS62 KTAE 012320  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
720 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY  
HELP TO EASE SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF  
THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THERE.  
ELSEWHERE, THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE DIURNAL  
CONVECTIVE CYCLE WITH HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE  
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY AND GET LEFT BEHIND AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT  
TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH  
LOWER POPS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, THE PRESENCE OF  
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL SEE  
SIMILAR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE  
NORTHWEST, AND LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
LONGER TERM FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE REMNANT  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVOLVES AS IT STALL ACROSS THE NE GULF AND  
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ON THE  
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD  
YIELD LOWER POPS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART  
OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SE BIG BEND, CLOSER TO  
THE BOUNDARY, OR ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWER  
POPS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL,  
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RETURN TO  
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CHANCES IS  
LIKELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA  
INFLUENCE. CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING,  
WITH SOME LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER  
DAY OF AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE  
ATLANTIC. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TOMORROW  
INTO THURSDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT FRONT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
GULF OR ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, LATE NIGHT AND  
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS,  
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WATERSPOUTS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A WET PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  
WITH MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS ACROSS  
THE AREA.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
BROAD TROUGH, DEEP MOISTURE, AND APPROACHING WEAK FRONT WILL KEEP  
WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND  
INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. HIGHEST ADDITIONAL  
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA, WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALIZED FLASH REMAINS A POSSIBLY,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST INTO THE SE BIG BEND, WHERE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXTEND INTO THE LATTER PART OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 86 73 89 73 / 80 40 90 30  
PANAMA CITY 87 75 89 76 / 80 70 70 40  
DOTHAN 88 72 89 71 / 80 40 50 10  
ALBANY 89 72 89 72 / 70 50 60 20  
VALDOSTA 87 73 89 73 / 70 30 90 30  
CROSS CITY 86 72 87 72 / 70 60 80 60  
APALACHICOLA 84 76 87 76 / 80 60 80 60  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR  
FLZ114-115.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...CAMP  
SHORT TERM...CAMP  
LONG TERM....CAMP  
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS  
MARINE...CAMP  
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP  
HYDROLOGY...CAMP  
 
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