784
FXUS62 KTAE 030001
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO DEW POINTS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
TROUGHING IS STILL HOLDING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THE NORTHEAST FLOW WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, IT WON'T BE AS BREEZY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH WINDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER PLEASANT
DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-60S AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURES AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
IS WELL SOUTH OF US IN THE CENTRAL GULF. PWATS RANGE FROM 1.3 - 1.5
INCHES THROUGH TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST FL BIG BEND WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHEST AND "TECHNICALLY"
CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OVERALL, POPS ARE NIL AT 15% AND
LESS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER EASTERN
US TROUGH, SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS THE PARENT TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT. IN THE
MEANTIME, HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO 100 TO 105. WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES SOMEWHAT, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SEA
BREEZE.
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTH OR CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL VARY GREATLY. IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO OUR
AREA, THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER AND CONFINED TO COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. ONE WAY TO QUANTIFY
THIS DISPARITY IS IN LOOKING AT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS 10-15 DEGREES. THUS, THE
FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BIT OF
MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY AT KVLD, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE HAPPENS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 2 TO 3 FEET. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
THEY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND,
TURNING THE WINDS BACK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
ELEVATED TO POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND DISTRICTS AS WE HAVE TRANSPORT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH WITH MIXING HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4500-
5200 FEET. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, EAST TO NORTHEAST TRANSPORT
WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PROVIDED THAT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES, WE WILL STAY IN THE DRY
CONDITIONS WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING. RH MINIMUMS WILL BE AROUND 40
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING TO THE MID-90S WITH HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES. DISPERSIONS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE FAIR TO
MODERATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 30% WITH THE BEST CHANCES RETURNING PAST MIDWEEK FOR THE SE FL
BIG BEND DISTRICTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE FRONT STALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE. LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5
TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF A COUPLE INCHES. THIS WOULD NOT
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 67 90 69 / 0 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 89 70 90 72 / 0 0 10 0
DOTHAN 86 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 87 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 88 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 91 69 92 70 / 20 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 86 72 87 73 / 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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