506
FXUS62 KTAE 221355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021
UPDATE
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, NO UPDATES ARE REQUIRED THIS
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION [554 AM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/CLEAR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER
ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE WEATHER WILL RAPID CHANGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL HELP
RAMP UP A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT MOVE NORTH
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL MOSTLY BE
LACKING THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF SATURDAY MORNING (THINK BEFORE
SUNRISE) BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN
POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY SATURDAY
REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND, WHICH WILL
DETERMINE HOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVOLVES NORTHWARDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT SATURDAY MORNING, THE SECONDARY
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. DETERMINING WHAT TYPE OF MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WE'LL
SEE (DISCRETE/SQUALL-LINE/MIXED), AND THUS TIMING, FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, FOLKS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST
OF SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SO EXPECT A LOWERING
THREAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WHATEVER STORMS LEFT MAKE THEIR WAY
EAST OVERNIGHT UNDER LOWERING SHEAR PROFILES WANING INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
A WARM AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOW 80S MOST DAYS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERNS
ARE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, SOME WHICH COULD
BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY. RAIN CLEARS UP INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME LOWER BY NEXT MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AND FUEL MOISTURE IS
STILL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION (HEAVIEST ACROSS AL/GA), OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAVY RAIN
RATES IN ANY STORMS COULD CAUSE VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 49 79 63 78 / 0 0 0 20 80
PANAMA CITY 71 54 76 66 77 / 0 0 0 30 70
DOTHAN 69 48 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 60 90
ALBANY 70 48 79 62 78 / 0 0 0 40 90
VALDOSTA 71 47 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 20 80
CROSS CITY 74 51 82 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 60
APALACHICOLA 69 56 74 66 77 / 0 0 0 20 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON
COUNTY LINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO MEXICO BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM MEXICO
BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE...MONTGOMERY
NEAR TERM...MCD
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM...DOBBS
AVIATION...MCD
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCD
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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