631
FXUS62 KTAE 031924
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS THE MOST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FL BIG BEND INTO SW GA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG-GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
- A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGS HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
(ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE). OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND. PLEASE HEED THE
BEACH FLAGS IF VISITING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE POPS ARE 60-80%, WITH LOWER BUT STILL NOTABLE CHANCES
(AROUND 40-50%) ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S, WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
ABILITY FOR CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP, WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SE
ALABAMA, SW GEORGIA AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN FRIDAY, WITH POPS IN THE 30-60% RANGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ON SUNDAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WIDELY
SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL
RAIN TO THE AREA, WHICH IS MUCH APPRECIATED WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POST-
FRONT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S MORE
SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY BRING ABOUT
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES (30-40%) WILL PERSIST ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND
SOUTHWARD INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL TREND
DRIER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
MODESTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EARLY IN THE
WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
SCATTERED SHRA HAS DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A ABY-TLH
LINE. INCREASING IN SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ALL
SITES BUT ECP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ENDING BY
02Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. CIGS IN THE PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO
IFR AT TIMES. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS GENTLE
TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AND NIGHTLY LANDBREEZE SURGES. A PASSING
FRONT SOME TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING CAUSES WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS THEN QUICKLY FRESHEN OUT OF THE
NORTH FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE AND APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS WEST
OF APALACHICOLA BY MONDAY MORNING. RAINY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FROM A WAVE LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE
GULF. THE CHANCES FOR ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AND PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE, SE ALABAMA, AND SW GEORGIA ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOUTH
OF OUR REGION AND MAY HELP DEVELOP A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, BUT THE DRIEST CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY ARRIVE TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER AWAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE TODAY
AND SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED GIVEN OUR ONGOING EXTREME
(D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT CONDITIONS. YESTERDAY, WE SAW
FURTHER D3- D4 EXPANSION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. CURRENT AMOUNTS ARE UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES (ISOLATED
HIGHER) EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. VALUES ARE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE
FOLLOWING WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 65 84 61 84 / 10 20 0 30
PANAMA CITY 66 81 64 78 / 0 20 0 50
DOTHAN 63 84 62 76 / 30 60 20 80
ALBANY 64 84 62 80 / 30 40 10 70
VALDOSTA 63 86 62 85 / 40 20 0 30
CROSS CITY 62 88 61 86 / 30 10 0 10
APALACHICOLA 67 75 64 77 / 0 10 0 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...IG3/MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...IG3
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