002
FXUS62 KTAE 130026
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
826 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO CUTOFF SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WITH ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN, BRINGING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AS EVIDENCED
BY FORECAST PWATS (PRECIPTABLE WATERS) AROUND 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH,
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 0% AND ALSO LEAD TO A LOW END
CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER GIVEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND
35%.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS NOSING
DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS INTO CANADA
WITH TROUGHS ON EACH SIDE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY CUTOFF THIS WEEKEND AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS BUT THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS CUTS OFF IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT
WEEK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR OUR AREA WE'RE LIKELY NOT GOING TO SEE ANY
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CONTINUATION OF THE DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW THAT'S PREVAILED THE LAST WEEK. IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS
OFF FURTHER WEST LIKE WE SAW IN THE 00Z EURO, IT WOULD MEAN THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST COOLER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR CLOUD COVER, AND POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS. SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE 12Z GFS WOULD LIKELY MEAN A WARMER AND DRIER CONTINUATION
OF THE RECENT PATTERN WE'VE SEEN.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS FEATURE CUTS OFF, IT WILL LIKELY DRIFT
EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAIN WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS THAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. OTHER ELEVATED
CONCERNS COULD BE OF THE FIRE WEATHER VARIETY. WHILE DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT FORECAST, RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
AFTERNOON WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. CAUTION IS RECOMMENDED IF ONE IS ENGAGED IN ANY ACTIVITY
INVOLVING FIRE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP
TO 20KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE BAHAMAS. NORTHEAST FLOW IS
FAVORABLE FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING SURGES OF WIND OFF THE LAND,
AND RELATIVE LULLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SURGES AT NIGHT
COULD BRING BRIEF CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
MANY DISTRICTS CONTINUE TO PUSH 2 TO 2.5 WEEKS WITHOUT RAIN AND
RAIN IS NOT LIKELY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT
DAYS. INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, PEAKING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. WHILE CRITICAL RHS ARE NOT FORECAST, MINRHS SHOULD DROP TO
AROUND 35% MOST AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD BRIEFLY SEE THE UPPER 20% RANGE ON THE DRIER AND MORE WELL
MIXED AFTERNOONS. COMBINED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS, WE'LL LIKELY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR EACH
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
NO FLOODING OR RIVER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 90 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 91 69 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 90 64 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 89 64 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 88 64 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 90 66 89 64 / 10 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 87 70 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....WOOL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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