040
FXUS62 KTAE 070604
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
104 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE NOW MORE FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORECAST ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM (30 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR
FLORIDA COUNTIES CURRENTLY HAVE A LOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT) CHANCE
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY; ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA COUNTIES HAVE A MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING THE REST OF THE
WEEK. MORNING FOG AND CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S BEFORE
WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN CHATTING ABOUT FOR A FEW DAYS IS
NOW FORECAST TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY LATER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS LEADS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE LIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE LIFT FROM THE FRONT SUPPORTS A
MEDIUM (30 TO 70 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS, BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG.
SO WHILE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREN'T LIKELY, ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD CREATE A SITUATION WHERE
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
EXPLICITLY FORECAST THAT IN THE GRIDS THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT'S
CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. COLDER WEATHER SETTLES
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S. FACTOR IN THE WIND AND WIND CHILL VALUES, OR THE FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURE, WILL BE DOWN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. THE
COOLER WEATHER STICKS AROUND MONDAY BEFORE MODERATING SOME AHEAD OF
ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN PLAGUE MOST OF OUR TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE
KVLD, KTLH, AND KECP, WHERE THEY'VE ALREADY SEEN FOG DEVELOP.
FOG/STRATUS LIFTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR
TO VFR CEILINGS FORECAST ALONG WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SOME FOG IN APALACHEE BAY AND PERHAPS ALONG THE EMERALD
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AHEAD OF IT AND ADVISORY LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK INTO SATURDAY. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. POOR DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THURSDAY WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
BE A BIT LIGHTER. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 102 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
LITTLE TO NO FLOODING IS FORECAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME MORE RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT THE MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.50".
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 59 74 57 / 10 0 10 0
PANAMA CITY 73 61 73 60 / 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 76 59 76 57 / 10 10 10 10
ALBANY 76 58 75 56 / 10 0 10 0
VALDOSTA 77 58 76 56 / 10 10 10 0
CROSS CITY 76 57 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 71 60 69 60 / 10 10 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ730-755-
765.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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