300
FXUS62 KTAE 130525
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
AVIATION
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY]
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION [956 PM EDT]
NEAR TERM [THROUGH SUNDAY]
THE 00Z TAE BALLOON SOUNDING OBSERVED A PW VALUE OF 2.09 INCHES.
THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT WHAT IS ALREADY CLOSE TO
THE MOISTEST TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS MUCH RICH, DEEP MOISTURE, IT
ONLY TAKES A MODEST AMOUNT OF LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT RAINFALL.
INDEED, WE HAVE A WEAK MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT HAS BEEN LINGERING SOMEWHAT STUBBORNLY THIS EVENING
NORTH OF AN ENTERPRISE TO CORDELE LINE. AT THIS RATE, IT MAY TAKE
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THAT CONVECTION TO FADE, BUT IT SHOULD
HAPPEN.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE UP OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS
CLOSE TO THE COAST ALONG THE LANDBREEZE BEFORE SUNRISE, AFFECTING
COASTAL COMMUNITIES. WEST-TO-EAST STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR
COMMUNITIES FROM PCB TO APALACHICOLA, AND ALONG THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BIG BEND.
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL STATE LINE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]
WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY
EVENING, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY. IN FACT, WITH THE DRIER NW FLOW, IT'S POSSIBLE MOST
AREAS ACROSS SOUTH GA/AL WILL EXPERIENCE A RAIN-FREE DAY WITH POPS
20 PERCENT OR LESS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SEA BREEZE ZONE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHILE WARM, WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MODESTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT
INDICES IN CHECK.
INDEED, WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-10 WILL HAVE
A SHOT AT SEEING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S.
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN DRIER WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS
ESTABLISHED AND WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY AT 20 PERCENT, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE END UP
BEING LOWERED EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM, BUT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE A WELCOME BREAK FROM
THE MUGGY WEATHER.
BY TUESDAY, A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SIGNAL THE START OF
WHAT COULD BE A RATHER WET FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
LATE DAY MCS ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES, ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL ONLY
BOLSTER AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES.
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS LINED UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
TROUGH AXIS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. EVEN AT THIS RANGE, POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT
RANGE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY IN THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN FOR MID AUGUST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE, BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WITH
STORMINESS RETURNING, DIURNAL RANGES WILL DECREASE AND HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S. LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
MARINE
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE
AXIS PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A WEAK MIDSUMMER FRONT
SLIPS SOUTH TO NEAR THE FLORIDA STATE LINE. A BRIEF TURN TO
NORTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES ITS
SOUTHERNMOST POINT. A SLIGHT FRESHENING OF WESTERLY BREEZES IS
FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS
PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
THANKS TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.
HYDROLOGY
RECENT HEAVY RAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT LED TO RISES ON THE SHOAL
RIVER. THE SHOAL AT MOSSY HEAD IS JUST ABOUT TO CREST BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT 11.7 FT. THE STAGE WILL START TO FALL OVERNIGHT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY,
BUT A RAINY STRETCH STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 89 71 90 69 93 / 70 50 40 10 20
PANAMA CITY 87 73 89 73 90 / 60 40 40 10 20
DOTHAN 87 69 90 69 93 / 60 20 30 0 20
ALBANY 87 69 90 69 93 / 40 20 20 0 20
VALDOSTA 88 70 91 68 93 / 70 40 40 10 20
CROSS CITY 91 71 91 69 93 / 50 60 50 10 30
APALACHICOLA 87 74 88 74 89 / 50 60 40 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH
WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HANER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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