271
FXUS62 KTAE 310629
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
NEAR TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH TODAY, IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TOTAL
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES ON
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME CLOUDS TODAY, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM
UPSTREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM [TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY]
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND POPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER BELOW 15
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S AND NEAR 70S.
LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70.
AVIATION
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY]
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY WITH
DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.
MARINE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME EASTERLY TOMORROW.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A WET PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. MARGINALLY HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
MOST LOCAL RIVERS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE NO
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 71 91 67 90 / 10 0 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 90 73 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 10 10
DOTHAN 89 69 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 90 70 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 91 71 88 65 89 / 10 0 10 0 10
CROSS CITY 91 72 91 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 88 74 86 72 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MCD
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...MCD
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