743
FXUS62 KTAE 310201
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1001 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OFFSHORE MAY
TAKE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO CLEAR OUT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AIDED BY THE SEABREEZE, WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH, CONDITIONS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THESE NORTHERN STORMS AS THEY SAG SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND OVERNIGHT.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH ONLY SOME
LINGERING POPS FOR THE SE BIG BEND. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER,
HELPING TO KEEP THE HUMIDITY MUCH MORE PLEASANT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEKEND COLD FRONT. ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE FEATURES CAN SOMETIME
YIELD UNEXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN.
HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ALOFT, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW,
BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE EASTERN TROUGH OF THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING
RIDGE FOR NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH VERY
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE REGION. GENERALLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A SHOWER AT ECP/TLH/VLD CAN'T BE RULED OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT, APPROACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A FRONT. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S DURING BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODEST TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WITH ONLY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY, AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 87 64 90 / 30 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 69 86 69 86 / 20 0 0 0
DOTHAN 62 84 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
ALBANY 62 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 67 87 64 90 / 30 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 68 87 63 89 / 60 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 71 84 70 84 / 40 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HUMPHREYS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM....CAMP
AVIATION...OLIVER
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page