986  
FXUS62 KTAE 150508  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
108 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR  
TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND VLD EARLY THIS MORNING.  
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [812 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA OR THE  
SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE ATLANTIC  
SEABREEZE RACES WEST. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE MID-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THE  
SEABREEZE WILL MAINLY BE TAPPING INTO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE.  
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]
 
 
HUMBERTO WILL STRENGTHEN AND SLOW DOWN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
PRIOR TO MAKING ITS TURN EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE  
MEANTIME, FLOW AROUND THE TC WILL HELP CREATE A CHANNEL FOR  
ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S YIELDING  
APPARENT TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
AROUND MID-WEEK, SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD AND RESULT IN MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH DRY AIR  
STILL ALOFT, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT  
NONETHELESS, SLIGHTLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. DUE TO A LARGE  
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT  
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOONS STARTING MID-WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS BACK DOWN  
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH  
A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING TOMORROW.  
THEREAFTER, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-  
WEEK.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,  
THOUGH DISPERSION INDICES MAY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 95 73 95 73 97 / 10 0 10 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 92 75 93 76 94 / 10 10 10 0 0  
DOTHAN 93 71 94 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 93 72 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 92 71 93 71 95 / 10 0 10 0 0  
CROSS CITY 92 74 94 73 95 / 20 10 10 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 91 76 91 76 92 / 20 10 10 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN  
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...HARRIGAN  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...DVD  
 
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