659
FXUS62 KTAE 232355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
755 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOSE STEAM
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
MOSEYING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE ASHORE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STREAM INLAND FROM THE GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF TROPICAL-LIKE BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS, SOME AREAS
COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW
HEADS WEST IN THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS AFTER BEING IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THE BEACHES, THAT STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT MOST AREA BEACHES THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DRIER AIR
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW FILTERS IN, LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN THEN, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) OF 1.8" TO 2.2" WILL
SUPPORT DECENT RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO HEAT UP AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BACK IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
HOT TEMPERATURES, EVEN BY FLORIDA/GEORGIA/ALABAMA STANDARDS, AWAIT
US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD 100S ARE POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR OVER 108
DEGREES, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY; MORE SURFACE MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO NEAR OR EXCEED
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA, OR OVER 113 DEGREES. NOT MUCH RAIN OR STORM
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS.
THIS HEAT IS THANKS TO A STRONG 597DM H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, A 597DM RIDGE WOULD BE A RECORD 500MB
HEIGHT FOR TAE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. THE CORE OF THE H5 RIDGE MOVES
FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA SATURDAY TO OVER GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS WHY RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWEST OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND INCREASING EVEN MORE TUESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, A PLUME OF 18C TO 20C 850MB TEMPS OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.
THOSE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20C TO 23C FROM WEST TO EAST
ON SUNDAY AND SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEARING THE 100 DEGREE MARK, AND
POSSIBLY SOME RECORD HIGHS. THOSE INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH
23C TO 25C ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND IS WHY WE HAVE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK CHECK ON
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOWS RECORDS OF 98 DEGREES FOR PANAMA CITY
AND APALACHICOLA; 99 FOR DOTHAN; AND 101 FOR ALBANY, MARIANNA,
TALLAHASSEE, AND VALDOSTA. THE PLUME OF HIGHER 850MB TEMPERATURES
HEADS WEST TUESDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. NOT MUCH RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED AT
NIGHT EITHER WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S IN THE MORNINGS; A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN DROP BELOW 80, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE. THE ONGOING
PULSE AND MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS, GIVING THE TERMINALS A BREAK OVERNIGHT.
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY, MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE COAST, THREATENING ECP AND POSSIBLY TLH
WITH THUNDER SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
THUNDER WILL THEN DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER GIVEN HOW MOIST THE AIR
MASS IS. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAMES.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE VLD, WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A DRIER AIR MASS SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THUNDER WEST OF THE VLD TERMINAL ON THU AFTERNOON, BUT THE
QUESTION OF PROXIMITY LENDS ITSELF TO VCTS IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, LEANED ON PERSISTENCE IN REPRESENTING MORNING IFR CIGS
AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
WESTERN WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW DEPARTING AND HIGH BUILDING IN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE A WETTING RAIN TO MOST
DISTRICTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS
RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA BIG BEND DISTRICTS THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH
DISPERSIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS, MEANING THEY COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FLORIDA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1.5" THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO INTO GEORGIA
AND ALABAMA. THE REASONABLE WORST CASE, OR 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HAPPENING, IS AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
IF THESE RAIN TOTALS FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, THEN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES COULD ARISE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
THE RIVER FLOOD THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW AS THIS SHOULD FALL SOUTH OF
MANY OF OUR RIVER GAGES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 75 89 75 92 / 70 80 20 80
PANAMA CITY 76 88 78 90 / 70 90 40 80
DOTHAN 74 89 73 91 / 50 80 10 70
ALBANY 74 91 73 94 / 30 70 10 50
VALDOSTA 74 92 74 95 / 50 60 20 50
CROSS CITY 73 93 74 94 / 70 60 30 60
APALACHICOLA 78 88 79 89 / 70 80 50 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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