659  
FXUS62 KTAE 232355  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
755 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOSE STEAM  
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A BROAD SURFACE LOW  
MOSEYING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE  
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, TO  
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE ASHORE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STREAM INLAND FROM THE GULF  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF TROPICAL-LIKE BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS  
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS, SOME AREAS  
COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW  
HEADS WEST IN THE GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT NEAR 90  
DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS AFTER BEING IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
AT THE BEACHES, THAT STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO  
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT MOST AREA BEACHES THURSDAY AND AGAIN  
FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
DRIER CONDITIONS START TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS  
THE SURFACE LOW HEADS WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DRIER AIR  
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW FILTERS IN, LESSENING RAIN  
CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
EVEN THEN, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) OF 1.8" TO 2.2" WILL  
SUPPORT DECENT RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO HEAT UP AGAIN WITH  
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BACK IN THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
HOT TEMPERATURES, EVEN BY FLORIDA/GEORGIA/ALABAMA STANDARDS, AWAIT  
US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD 100S ARE POSSIBLE  
AS SOON AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD  
TO HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, OR OVER 108  
DEGREES, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY; MORE SURFACE MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE  
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO NEAR OR EXCEED  
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA, OR OVER 113 DEGREES. NOT MUCH RAIN OR STORM  
RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT  
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS.  
 
THIS HEAT IS THANKS TO A STRONG 597DM H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, A 597DM RIDGE WOULD BE A RECORD 500MB  
HEIGHT FOR TAE FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. THE CORE OF THE H5 RIDGE MOVES  
FROM JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA SATURDAY TO OVER GEORGIA AND  
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
THIS IS WHY RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWEST OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE  
INCREASING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND INCREASING EVEN MORE TUESDAY AS THE  
CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, A PLUME OF 18C TO 20C 850MB TEMPS OVER  
THE REGION ON SATURDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.  
THOSE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20C TO 23C FROM WEST TO EAST  
ON SUNDAY AND SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES NEARING THE 100 DEGREE MARK, AND  
POSSIBLY SOME RECORD HIGHS. THOSE INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH  
23C TO 25C ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND IS WHY WE HAVE FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREES ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. A QUICK CHECK ON  
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY SHOWS RECORDS OF 98 DEGREES FOR PANAMA CITY  
AND APALACHICOLA; 99 FOR DOTHAN; AND 101 FOR ALBANY, MARIANNA,  
TALLAHASSEE, AND VALDOSTA. THE PLUME OF HIGHER 850MB TEMPERATURES  
HEADS WEST TUESDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE  
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. NOT MUCH RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED AT  
NIGHT EITHER WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S IN THE MORNINGS; A FEW  
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN DROP BELOW 80, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE. THE ONGOING  
PULSE AND MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE  
NEXT 3 HOURS, GIVING THE TERMINALS A BREAK OVERNIGHT.  
 
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY, MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG AND JUST OFF OF THE COAST, THREATENING ECP AND POSSIBLY TLH  
WITH THUNDER SOON AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
THUNDER WILL THEN DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER GIVEN HOW MOIST THE AIR  
MASS IS. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO THUNDER DURING THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAMES.  
 
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE VLD, WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF  
A DRIER AIR MASS SPREADING IN FROM THE EAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN  
THUNDER WEST OF THE VLD TERMINAL ON THU AFTERNOON, BUT THE  
QUESTION OF PROXIMITY LENDS ITSELF TO VCTS IN THE TAF.  
 
OTHERWISE, LEANED ON PERSISTENCE IN REPRESENTING MORNING IFR CIGS  
AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS  
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATER  
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR  
WESTERN WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW DEPARTING AND HIGH BUILDING IN. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET.  
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALLOWS WINDS TO TURN  
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A  
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE A WETTING RAIN TO MOST  
DISTRICTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS  
RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO  
NEAR 100. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR GEORGIA AND  
FLORIDA BIG BEND DISTRICTS THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH  
DISPERSIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT  
RAIN PRODUCERS, MEANING THEY COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN  
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL  
TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FLORIDA WITH  
LESSER AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1.5" THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO INTO GEORGIA  
AND ALABAMA. THE REASONABLE WORST CASE, OR 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
HAPPENING, IS AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AND 1  
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.  
 
IF THESE RAIN TOTALS FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, THEN LOCALIZED  
FLASH FLOOD ISSUES COULD ARISE, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR  
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED, SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST  
PACKAGE.  
 
THE RIVER FLOOD THREAT ALSO APPEARS LOW AS THIS SHOULD FALL SOUTH OF  
MANY OF OUR RIVER GAGES.  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TALLAHASSEE 75 89 75 92 / 70 80 20 80  
PANAMA CITY 76 88 78 90 / 70 90 40 80  
DOTHAN 74 89 73 91 / 50 80 10 70  
ALBANY 74 91 73 94 / 30 70 10 50  
VALDOSTA 74 92 74 95 / 50 60 20 50  
CROSS CITY 73 93 74 94 / 70 60 30 60  
APALACHICOLA 78 88 79 89 / 70 80 50 80  
 
 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...REESE  
SHORT TERM...REESE  
LONG TERM....REESE  
AVIATION...HANER  
MARINE...REESE  
FIRE WEATHER...REESE  
HYDROLOGY...REESE  
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