274
FXUS62 KTAE 051121
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
721 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LA/MS/AL COAST WILL DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH WILL TRY TO LIFT A WEAK FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE EMERALD COAST AROUND
60-70%, DECREASING TO 40-50% OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAPPEN DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE,
IF STORMS CAN TAP INTO THE DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES, BUT THE HIGH-END TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST (10% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN
THIS). THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSHORE AND TO THE WEST
OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A BIT OF LOW- LEVEL SHEAR OF
20 KT THAT MAY HELP STORMS PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO THE WEST WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
TO THE EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL
STILL BE A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS. GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST BY MONDAY WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY TO 30-40% AREA-WIDE.
RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL CUT OFF RAIN CHANCES TO
ONLY 20%. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY, THEN UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS. LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 70.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
HOT TEMPERATURES, BY OCTOBER STANDARDS, CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS RIDGING
HOLDS STRONG. RIDGING SHIFTS WEST AS TROUGHING DIGS IN THE EAST,
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOOKS TO BE A DRY COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE RETURN IS RATHER MEAGER,
SO RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 20% OR LESS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS
IN ITS WAKE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER PAST 00Z,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST NEAR ECP AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST AL NEAR
DHN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER
DAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG EASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST ALONG A WEAK FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AT LEAST
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER NEAR-
ADVISORY LEVEL SURGE MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE TO FRESH WITH SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA
ZONES, AROUND 50-60%. OTHERWISE, STRONG EASTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH CONTINUE, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
3,000-4,000 FEET. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE MONDAY, BUT WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GOOD DISPERSIONS CONTINUING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS BASED ON THE 90TH PERCENTILE ARE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES, WHICH WOULD MAINLY BE NEAR THE EMERALD
COAST. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE AND TO
OUR WEST. HOWEVER, THESE TOTALS WOULD STILL NOT PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS. ANY RAIN IS BENEFICIAL,
HOWEVER, TO THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ONGOING, BUT
THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 86 71 87 72 / 50 20 40 10
PANAMA CITY 83 71 87 71 / 60 40 50 10
DOTHAN 82 69 86 69 / 50 30 20 10
ALBANY 85 70 87 69 / 40 10 30 10
VALDOSTA 86 71 87 70 / 40 10 40 10
CROSS CITY 88 72 88 72 / 50 10 50 10
APALACHICOLA 82 73 84 73 / 60 40 30 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR GMZ730-
751-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...YOUNG
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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