768
FXUS62 KTAE 262324
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF WILL KEEP OUR PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER US WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
BE SLOW MOVING WHICH POSES A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK. POPS FOR TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA COUNTIES, WITH HIGHER CHANCES
IN THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. SATURDAY WILL HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOUT A 50-70 PERCENT
CHANCES AREA WIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WEAK, CREATING A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT FOR SATURDAY. THE WPC
DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE REGION IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
TO RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND
2 TO 2.2 INCHES WILL YIELD HIGH RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY, LIKELY
STARTING NEAR AND OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING, THEN SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND NUISANCE FLOODING. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 WITH
LOWS IN THE MID-70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-108 ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECLINE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, PWATS WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DECENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK. WE MAY SEE A BIT MORE OF A GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS
NEXT WEEK AS SOME DRIER AIR ENTERS THE MID LEVELS. BUT, WE'LL ALSO
HAVE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL
START TO CLIMB TOWARD THE MID-90S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
CONTINUED VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z AS CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT SHOULD BE AWAY FROM
THE AIRPORTS BY THEN. VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND HAVE VCTS ONCE AGAIN IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TONIGHT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME
WATERSPOUTS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
THERE ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN CREATE ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THROUGH THE PERIOD, LOW DISPERSIONS BETWEEN 10 AND 30 ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
WITH AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH THE GROUND BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO, WE ARE A LITTLE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA
OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THE ONLY CREEK IN ACTION STAGE IS THE BRUCE CREEK NEAR REDBAY, BUT
ALL OTHERS REMAIN BELOW. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS SEE SOME RESPONSE IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS IN THOSE
SMALL BASINS. BUT NO MAINSTEM RIVER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 93 75 90 / 20 70 40 80
PANAMA CITY 78 91 77 90 / 30 60 50 80
DOTHAN 74 93 74 90 / 20 60 30 80
ALBANY 74 94 74 90 / 10 50 30 70
VALDOSTA 74 94 75 92 / 30 60 40 70
CROSS CITY 74 91 74 91 / 40 70 50 80
APALACHICOLA 78 89 78 89 / 40 60 60 80
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MONTGOMERY
SHORT TERM...YOUNG
LONG TERM....YOUNG
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...MONTGOMERY
HYDROLOGY...YOUNG
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