970
FXUS62 KTAE 011458
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1058 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER INLAND AREAS.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 107F ON ONE OR MORE AFTERNOONS FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST.
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
UPDATES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY THIS MORNING, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE REGION. IN
FACT, THIS RIDGE IS NEAR RECORD BREAKING IN TERMS OF 500 MB
HEIGHTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO MAINLY FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 90-95F WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 70-75F. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 103-107F ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE AND APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST WITH NEAR 100F HEAT
INDEX VALUES ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK BEFORE SLIDING WESTWARD FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, AND OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AREAWIDE IS
LIKELY BE TO BE ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY FEATURES VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.3-2.4 INCHES, WHICH ARE WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER AND APPROACHING DAILY
MAXIMA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PERHAPS
NORTHERLY IN OUR AREA. WHEN THIS OCCURS, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE 108F HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE AND APALACHICOLA NATIONAL FOREST EACH AFTERNOON,
WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES GENERALLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
100-105F RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
IFR/LIFR IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT VLD AROUND SUNRISE, OTHERWISE
VFR. MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR AFTN/EVE TSRA AT TLH, VLD, AND ECP. AT
ECP, EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO VEER WINDS FROM NE TO SW AROUND 20Z.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE TODAY AROUND 5 KTS
WITH SCT CIGS AT 3-5K FT DEVELOPING. RENEWED IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT VLD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. NEARSHORE
SEABREEZES WILL INTERRUPT THE EASTERLY FLOW EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER OUR FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTH
GEORGIA DISTRICTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, WITH A
SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEK
MAY LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED NUISANCE RUNOFF ISSUES BENEATH THE CORE
OF HEAVIER STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A HIGHER COVERAGE OF
RAIN OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 40 20
PANAMA CITY 92 76 92 76 / 40 10 40 30
DOTHAN 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 10 10
ALBANY 94 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 92 73 91 73 / 20 0 50 10
CROSS CITY 91 73 90 73 / 60 20 70 30
APALACHICOLA 88 77 88 77 / 40 20 40 70
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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