589
FXUS62 KTAE 202330
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. WITH DRY AIR ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE WE WON'T SEE ANY PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ABOVE THE DENSE SURFACE AIR. TEMPS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS
THE REGION. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE ALABAMA,
PORTIONS OF SW GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WINTER WEATHER CENTERED ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR BOTH
SNOWFALL/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL WILL BE MOST
IMPACTFUL FROM THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST AL AND THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE, WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EAST OF THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY IN
GA TO THE FL BIG BEND, FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST IMPACTFUL, WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING AROUND ONE TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THESE AMOUNTS AND THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES, BOTH OF WHICH COULD CHANGE, SO PLEASE STAY TUNED.
IT ALSO BE VERY COLD, WITH AN EXTREME COLD WARNING ALSO IN EFFECT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, COINCIDING WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIP. ANY WINTER WEATHER SHOULD END WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD CONDITIONS, WITH COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
LIKELY CONTINUING BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT'LL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY, UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS BRUTAL COLD AIR
REMAINS WITH US UNTIL THEN. BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WE'LL BEGIN TO CLOCK AROUND TO A MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW, ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO APPROACH AROUND FREEZING
(32 DEGREES) SUNDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO REMAIN RELATIVELY SUPPRESSED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S. ON SUNDAY DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
A VERY UNUSUAL SET OF TAFS FOR OUR TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WITH
INTRODUCTION OF RAIN AND SNOW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A MORE OVERCAST MID-LEVEL DECK
ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AT DHN AND ECP AROUND 17-19Z. THIS WILL LIKELY START AS
A SNOW-RAIN MIX WITH PERHAPS MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST TO TLH AND VLD LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD
WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX, PERHAPS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW TO START. CIGS
AT ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO MVFR. MEANWHILE, ECP, DHN, AND ABY
WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VSBYS
DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2 SM. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL, BECOMING GUSTY
UP TO 20 KT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MID-WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF GALE
CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE
OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE AND APALACHICOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH OR WARNING AS THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME SNOW,
SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OR
LESS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING MIDWEEK.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 44 30 43 27 / 0 10 80 100
PANAMA CITY 45 29 39 25 / 0 0 90 90
DOTHAN 41 25 35 17 / 0 0 80 80
ALBANY 42 25 39 20 / 0 0 80 90
VALDOSTA 44 30 44 26 / 0 10 70 100
CROSS CITY 47 33 50 30 / 0 10 60 100
APALACHICOLA 44 32 45 28 / 0 10 80 100
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
FLZ007>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ007>011-108.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ TO 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ007>013-016-108-112.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ012>019-026>029-034-112-114-
115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
FLZ112-114-115.
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ120>131-
142>148-155>161.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ120>128-142>144.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>126-142>144-155.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ120>126-142>144-155-156.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
GAZ127>131-145>148-156>161.
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALZ065>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ065>069.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY TO 10 AM
EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ730-750-752-755-765.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
/11 PM CST/ TUESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...OLIVER
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...YOUNG
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...LF
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