305
FXUS62 KTAE 220526
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1226 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS POISED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT POSE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE. ON ONE HAND, WINDS
WILL REMAIN LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA, WHICH WOULD
FAVOR MORE RADIATIVE COOLING AFFECTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, A QUICK
MOVING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA AROUND ~02-03Z AND GETTING
HUNG UP NEAR THE EASTERN END OF THE CWA BY ABOUT ~10Z. THIS WOULD
HELP LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS, KEEPING US WARMER. WITH THIS,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH CERTAIN AREAS WILL COOL, AS
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS CLOUD DECK AND HOW
LARGE ITS COVERAGE WILL BE. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE EXIT TIMING OF
THIS CLOUD DECK, OUR LOWEST TEMPERATURES AND GREATEST FROST CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO BE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS TO BUILD IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS HIGHER MID-UPPER LEVEL RH IS ADVECTED IN. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER-MID 60S SOUTH,
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY REBOUND TO THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. NO SEVERE WEATHER
OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD,
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT AND A MODERATE COOL DOWN
IN ITS WAKE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
MINRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION TO
THAT IS OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND I-75 CORRIDOR, WHERE MINRH
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT MORE ELEVATED DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 332 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 62 38 64 44 / 0 0 0 20
PANAMA CITY 60 41 62 47 / 0 0 0 40
DOTHAN 58 33 60 41 / 0 0 0 20
ALBANY 59 31 61 41 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 61 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 10
CROSS CITY 65 39 67 46 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 60 42 60 48 / 0 0 0 40
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MUTSCHLER
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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