593
FXUS62 KTAE 211407
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES INTO THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. BEACHGOERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT LIFEGUARDS ON SURF
CONDITIONS AND DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE SURF IF RED OR DOUBLE
RED FLAGS ARE FLYING.
- HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST COMMONLY REACH THE 90 TO 95
DEGREE RANGE. MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, AFFECTING THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND SOME
HEALTH SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS. CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN TIMEZONE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED TO SUFFICIENT LEVELS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGED EASTWARD. EXPECT
INITIATION ALONG THE APALACHEE BAY SEABREEZE, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY
DRIFTING/CLUSTERING INTO SW GA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN & GUSTY WINDS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE'S PRESENCE IMPLIES MOSTLY
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED COVERAGE. ADDITIONAL CELL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A HOT/MUGGY SUMMER-LIKE DAY.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE REGION LIES UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST GULF NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE TROUGHING
IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES AT 20-40%. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPSTREAM TROUGHING
BEGINNING FRIDAY. AREA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE
COLUMN, A DECREASE IN THE 700-400MB DRY AIR THAT THE RIDGE WAS
HELPING TO REINFORCE, AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.6-1.9 INCHES. COUPLED
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY THEN
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOWER
MOVING STORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
HOT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AND CREATE A
MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK AT TIMES. WHILE NOT NEARING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THESE CONDITIONS THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON COULD
STILL PRESENT A RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS IN SENSITIVE GROUPS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE ECP AND DHN TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 14Z. SCT TO BKN
SKIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS OF
1-3 FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS, AS WELL AS FREQUENT
CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER
CONVECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A FEW SPOTS OF
HIGH DISPERSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BUT OTHERWISE THERE ARE
NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UNDERNEATH
HEAVIER OR SLOWER MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AND SHORT-
LIVED NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, MAINLY FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND THE AIR MASS
MOISTENS FURTHER.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 92 72 90 73 / 30 0 20 10
PANAMA CITY 87 74 86 75 / 0 10 30 30
DOTHAN 89 69 87 70 / 10 10 40 30
ALBANY 91 70 90 71 / 30 30 50 40
VALDOSTA 92 71 91 72 / 20 10 60 30
CROSS CITY 93 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
APALACHICOLA 85 76 85 77 / 0 0 20 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ112-114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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