812  
FXUS62 KTAE 152315  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
715 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THIS  
CYCLE. THERE WILL BE TS IN THE VICINITY OF TLH UNTIL 01-02Z. A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT ECP, DHN AND VLD  
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE TO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [309 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ABOUT AN AXIS DEFINED BY CROSS CITY - PERRY -  
TALLAHASSEE - MARIANNA - DOTHAN, WHERE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS  
AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT. WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, PATCHY  
FOG MAY COVERAGE MAY BE GREATER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. GUIDANCE  
IS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FL  
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, WHERE THE FORECAST  
REFLECTS THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
70S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL ALLOW ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND  
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED  
AND DIURNAL IN NATURE, WITH HIGHER COVERAGE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN OUR EASTERN AREAS ON  
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
MID-UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. LOWS WILL  
HOVER AROUND THE MID-70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
DESPITE THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL  
RETURN US TO A TYPICAL SUMMER SEABREEZE PATTERN WITH NEAR AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES AND POPS. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S WILL GRADUALLY  
COOL INTO THE LOWER-90S, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID-70S. HEAT  
INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AS WE ENTER LATE WEEK.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF  
THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY STARTING WEDNESDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS  
THE REGION. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT  
TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE. LOW  
DISPERSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE  
WEAK.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A RELATIVELY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FEATURING ISOLATED PRECIPITATION  
WILL END ON TUESDAY, THEN RETURNING TO A MORE SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION  
THEREAFTER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SEA-BREEZE  
DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILS. ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL,  
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING FROM HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, THERE ARE  
NO OTHER FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 75 97 75 96 75 / 20 30 10 30 30  
PANAMA CITY 77 91 77 91 77 / 0 10 0 20 10  
DOTHAN 74 95 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 20 10  
ALBANY 75 96 75 96 76 / 0 20 10 20 10  
VALDOSTA 75 97 75 97 74 / 10 30 20 40 30  
CROSS CITY 75 95 76 93 76 / 20 30 20 30 30  
APALACHICOLA 78 91 77 91 78 / 0 10 10 20 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR  
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LF  
SHORT TERM...SKEEN  
LONG TERM...SKEEN  
AVIATION...WOOL  
MARINE...SKEEN  
FIRE WEATHER...PULLIN  
HYDROLOGY...LF  
 
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