532
FXUS62 KTAE 051801
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
101 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
- SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS ANY WEEKEND RAINFALL WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE RELIEF.
- THE FIRST KILLING FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY
OVER INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
A REX BLOCK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND A CLOSER UPPER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN BY THIS WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE
OF UNDERWHELMING RAINFALL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE FLINT
AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. PRIOR TO THAT, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. INCREASINGLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TURNING MUCH
COLDER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY, WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL INCREASING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS WARM A BIT
MORE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH SOME COOLER SPOTS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY, PARTICULARLY THE FL COUNTIES
INTO THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY GA. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OBSERVED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN,
WITH GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, EXCEPT
MORESO CLOSER TO THE FORGOTTEN COAST IN THE FL BIG BEND.
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAKE IT A
LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE IT WILL SETUP. A
DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DEW POINTS NORTH OF I-10 CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
GUIDANCE (LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S). HIGHS GRADUALLY WARM THRU
THE 70S TO AROUND 80F THROUGH FRIDAY, CLOSER TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENIGS W/GUSTS AROUND
20 MPH (75TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE).
ON SATURDAY, CAPE INCREASES AROUND 1.5K J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR
AROUND 30 KT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL RATHER DRY AND LIFT
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. TALLER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS/PERHAPS
SOME SMALL HAIL IF THEY'RE ABLE TO GET THERE, OTHERWISE A
20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SPC ADVERTISES
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, WITH THEIR
NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK DUE BY 3 PM ET THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU LATE SUNDAY WITH A
20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE LIMITED. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
AROUND 20-25 MPH (75TH PERCENTILE OF THE GUIDANCE).
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON MONDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL INCREASING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS; LOWS TUESDAY MORNING MAY END UP CLOSER
TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE (MID-20S TO MID-30S).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SCOOTS JUST
EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF
FOG AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY AT
ALL TAF SITES. ALSO DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME TEMPO IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES AT TLH/VLD, WHERE THEY LIKE TO FOG UP A LITTLE
EASIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MEDIUM.
ALL OF THE FOG/LOW CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT OF HERE BY 13Z
OR SO THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS MAINTAINS EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS CLOCKING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY,
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY CLOCKING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
CONDITINS FOR SMALL CRAFT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, WITH ONLY A LOW 30% CHANCE OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS. IN
ADDITION, A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND
WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURSDAY BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON MIN RH ON THURSDAY WILL BE LOWEST NORTH OF I-10 IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN MOISTENING UP INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS ON THURSDAY CONTRIBUTE
TO WIDESPREAD LOW DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL REBOUND
TO AT LEAST FAIR VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS
UP. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ANY
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO BRING SUBSTANTIVE
DROUGHT RELIEF.
LOOKING AHEAD, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE MONDAY WITH A
VERY DRY AIR MASS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE FIRST KILLING
FROST AND/OR FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY OVER INLAND DISTRICTS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1214 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. A LIMITED
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO YIELD AMOUNTS AOB 0.25" PER ENSEMBLES. THUS, THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO BE MAINTAINED OR WORSEN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. MORE INFORMATION AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 80 55 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 58 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 78 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 78 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 80 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 52 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 74 58 74 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF
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