506  
FXUS62 KTAE 221355  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
955 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, NO UPDATES ARE REQUIRED THIS  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [554 AM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION UNTIL  
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE  
REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY/CLEAR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE  
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE  
WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING SEVERE WEATHER  
ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE, AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, PUSH EAST OF THE  
AREA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
THE WEATHER WILL RAPID CHANGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS  
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT  
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FIRST  
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL HELP  
RAMP UP A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS  
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT MOVE NORTH  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL MOSTLY BE  
LACKING THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF SATURDAY MORNING (THINK BEFORE  
SUNRISE) BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR OR  
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND  
POSSIBLY A TORNADO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN  
POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EARLY SATURDAY  
REVOLVE AROUND HOW FAST THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND, WHICH WILL  
DETERMINE HOW THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVOLVES NORTHWARDS INTO  
THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT SATURDAY MORNING, THE SECONDARY  
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MOST  
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH QUICKLY EAST OF THE  
REGION BY THE AFTERNOON, STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A PROBLEM GIVEN  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTION. DETERMINING WHAT TYPE OF MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WE'LL  
SEE (DISCRETE/SQUALL-LINE/MIXED), AND THUS TIMING, FOR THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS, FOLKS  
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST  
OF SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA.  
 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE  
REGION BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SO EXPECT A LOWERING  
THREAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WHATEVER STORMS LEFT MAKE THEIR WAY  
EAST OVERNIGHT UNDER LOWERING SHEAR PROFILES WANING INSTABILITY.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]
 
 
A WARM AND DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE  
LOW 80S MOST DAYS WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO  
THE WEEKEND WITH POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERNS  
ARE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH  
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, SOME WHICH COULD  
BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY. RAIN CLEARS UP INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME LOWER BY NEXT MONDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE  
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AND FUEL MOISTURE IS  
STILL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT  
LEAST FRIDAY. RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE REGION (HEAVIEST ACROSS AL/GA), OVER THE WEEKEND AS A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO  
INCREASE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAVY RAIN  
RATES IN ANY STORMS COULD CAUSE VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 71 49 79 63 78 / 0 0 0 20 80  
PANAMA CITY 71 54 76 66 77 / 0 0 0 30 70  
DOTHAN 69 48 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 60 90  
ALBANY 70 48 79 62 78 / 0 0 0 40 90  
VALDOSTA 71 47 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 20 80  
CROSS CITY 74 51 82 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 60  
APALACHICOLA 69 56 74 66 77 / 0 0 0 20 70  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING  
FOR APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO  
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM  
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL  
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-  
COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20  
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON  
COUNTY LINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO  
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA  
TO MEXICO BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM MEXICO  
BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...MONTGOMERY  
NEAR TERM...MCD  
SHORT TERM...DOBBS  
LONG TERM...DOBBS  
AVIATION...MCD  
MARINE...DOBBS  
FIRE WEATHER...MCD  
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS  
 
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