271  
FXUS62 KTAE 310629  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
229 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
NEAR TERM [TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH TODAY, IT WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TOTAL  
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR INCREASES ON  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SOME CLOUDS TODAY, MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM  
UPSTREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE, WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE OUT  
OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. A DRIER  
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND POPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER BELOW 15  
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL BE  
IN THE 60S AND NEAR 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL A WEAK  
TROUGH MOVES IN LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BE IN THE ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE YUCATAN  
PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL  
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE LATE  
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND NEAR 70.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY]  
 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY WITH  
DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AERODROMES TODAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME EASTERLY TOMORROW.  
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS BECOME  
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. A WET PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. MARGINALLY HIGH  
DISPERSIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MOST LOCAL RIVERS ARE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. DRIER WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE  
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE ARE NO  
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 93 71 91 67 90 / 10 0 10 10 10  
PANAMA CITY 90 73 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 10 10  
DOTHAN 89 69 89 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ALBANY 90 70 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0  
VALDOSTA 91 71 88 65 89 / 10 0 10 0 10  
CROSS CITY 91 72 91 67 89 / 20 10 10 10 10  
APALACHICOLA 88 74 86 72 84 / 10 0 0 10 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL  
SHORT TERM...MCD  
LONG TERM...MCD  
AVIATION...SCHOLL  
MARINE...MCD  
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL  
HYDROLOGY...MCD  
 
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