300  
FXUS62 KTAE 130525  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
125 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY]  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE  
FRONT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT  
WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [956 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
THE 00Z TAE BALLOON SOUNDING OBSERVED A PW VALUE OF 2.09 INCHES.  
THIS IS NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE VALUE AT WHAT IS ALREADY CLOSE TO  
THE MOISTEST TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS MUCH RICH, DEEP MOISTURE, IT  
ONLY TAKES A MODEST AMOUNT OF LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT RAINFALL.  
INDEED, WE HAVE A WEAK MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT DRAGGING SOUTH THROUGH  
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING. CONVECTION ALONG  
THE FRONT HAS BEEN LINGERING SOMEWHAT STUBBORNLY THIS EVENING  
NORTH OF AN ENTERPRISE TO CORDELE LINE. AT THIS RATE, IT MAY TAKE  
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THAT CONVECTION TO FADE, BUT IT SHOULD  
HAPPEN.  
 
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE UP OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS  
CLOSE TO THE COAST ALONG THE LANDBREEZE BEFORE SUNRISE, AFFECTING  
COASTAL COMMUNITIES. WEST-TO-EAST STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR  
COMMUNITIES FROM PCB TO APALACHICOLA, AND ALONG THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE BIG BEND.  
 
THE FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL STATE LINE ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON, SERVING AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]
 
 
WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY  
EVENING, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES  
FOR SUNDAY. IN FACT, WITH THE DRIER NW FLOW, IT'S POSSIBLE MOST  
AREAS ACROSS SOUTH GA/AL WILL EXPERIENCE A RAIN-FREE DAY WITH POPS  
20 PERCENT OR LESS. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SEA BREEZE ZONE  
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER IN NORTH FLORIDA.  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WHILE WARM, WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY MODESTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT  
INDICES IN CHECK.  
 
INDEED, WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-10 WILL HAVE  
A SHOT AT SEEING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER  
60S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN DRIER WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS  
ESTABLISHED AND WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES ARE  
CURRENTLY AT 20 PERCENT, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THESE END UP  
BEING LOWERED EVEN FURTHER GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WARM, BUT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE A WELCOME BREAK FROM  
THE MUGGY WEATHER.  
 
BY TUESDAY, A RETURN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SIGNAL THE START OF  
WHAT COULD BE A RATHER WET FEW DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD. WITH THE EAST COAST TROUGH RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR  
LATE DAY MCS ACTIVITY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF  
SHORTWAVES, ONE ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING  
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL ONLY  
BOLSTER AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES.  
 
BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, OUR REGION IS LINED UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE  
TROUGH AXIS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR  
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. EVEN AT THIS RANGE, POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT  
RANGE MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY IN THIS  
TYPE OF PATTERN FOR MID AUGUST.  
 
WHILE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE  
WARM SIDE, BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WITH  
STORMINESS RETURNING, DIURNAL RANGES WILL DECREASE AND HIGHS WILL  
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S. LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID  
70S.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST AND  
WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE  
AXIS PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A WEAK MIDSUMMER FRONT  
SLIPS SOUTH TO NEAR THE FLORIDA STATE LINE. A BRIEF TURN TO  
NORTHERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT REACHES ITS  
SOUTHERNMOST POINT. A SLIGHT FRESHENING OF WESTERLY BREEZES IS  
FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS  
PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE  
NORTH. A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS  
THANKS TO ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RECENT HEAVY RAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT LED TO RISES ON THE SHOAL  
RIVER. THE SHOAL AT MOSSY HEAD IS JUST ABOUT TO CREST BELOW FLOOD  
STAGE AT 11.7 FT. THE STAGE WILL START TO FALL OVERNIGHT.  
 
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD CONCERNS  
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY,  
BUT A RAINY STRETCH STARTING NEXT TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY COULD BRING A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS  
THE REGION.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 89 71 90 69 93 / 70 50 40 10 20  
PANAMA CITY 87 73 89 73 90 / 60 40 40 10 20  
DOTHAN 87 69 90 69 93 / 60 20 30 0 20  
ALBANY 87 69 90 69 93 / 40 20 20 0 20  
VALDOSTA 88 70 91 68 93 / 70 40 40 10 20  
CROSS CITY 91 71 91 69 93 / 50 60 50 10 30  
APALACHICOLA 87 74 88 74 89 / 50 60 40 10 20  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS  
MORNING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH  
WALTON.  
 
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HANER  
SHORT TERM...GODSEY  
LONG TERM...GODSEY  
AVIATION...MERRIFIELD  
MARINE...HANER  
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG  
HYDROLOGY...HANER  
 
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