844  
FXUS62 KTAE 140744  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BROAD AREA-WIDE SYNOPTIC  
SCALE ASCENT. AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING, STRONG MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG THE PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF  
WATERS AS FLOW AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE MERGE. THIS AXIS OF CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE  
RIDGE RETREATS AND THE LOW ADVANCES EAST. THIS IS PICKED UP ON WELL  
BY A FEW LOCAL CAMS WHICH ESSENTIALLY DEPICT TODAY'S CONVECTIVE  
EVOLUTION BY (1) CONVERGENCE AXIS SHIFTING EAST FOCUSING STORMS AWAY  
FROM THE PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND THROUGH THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (2) SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, MOVING NORTH  
INTO S GA/SE AL (3) SW/NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND SE AL LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THUS THE  
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE THIS MORNING ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE BIG BEND. ELSEWHERE, AND LATER,  
MORE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FORCED ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOW 90S, WITH  
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE  
(OR ALONG THE ADJACENT COAST) OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE  
MIDDLE 70S AREA-WIDE.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN AND  
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SATURDAY.  
GIVEN OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON  
SATURDAY. WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH PW  
VALUES OF WELL OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, POPS WILL BE WELL  
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA FORECASTED TO HAVE OVER  
80% POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE ENHANCED  
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND UBIQUITOUS AMOUNTS  
OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A  
CONCERNED IF STORM MOTION IS SLOW OR IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME  
AREAS REPEATEDLY. WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING 2.25 INCHES  
OVER THE REGION, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAIN  
PRODUCERS WITH AREAS EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAIN RATES AND LOCALIZED  
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE  
LOW TO MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
   
LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD  
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL  
SLIGHTLY LOWER THE POPS OVER THE REGION TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY  
LEVELS ROUGHLY (30-40%). OVERALL, WITH THE LIFTING THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION, THE  
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ENTERS A BRIEF PERIOD OF A QUASI-RELAXED STATE  
PRIOR TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN AHEAD STARTING NEXT  
WEEK. STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
DIG SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND BECOME QUASI-  
STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN IS  
LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO AND SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP NEAR STATIONARY  
RIDGE THAT HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  
PROVIDED THIS TREND IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES, THERE IS  
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DEEP TROPICAL LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO  
ENTRAIN ITSELF ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN MAY LEAD TO FUTURE  
FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN ITS FORECAST POTENTIAL TO REMAIN QUASI-  
STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH MODELS  
ALSO CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A 30-40 KNOT 500MB JET TO  
REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THIS MAY LEAD TO  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
ENHANCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR VALUES. THERE STILL EXISTS MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT DEVELOP  
UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME MODEL  
AGREEMENT SUGGESTS THAT A VERY WET PATTERN IS LIKELY AHEAD. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS WILL  
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY]  
 
ECP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY  
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF OUTSIDE OF STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST  
LIKELY AT ECP THIS MORNING, THEN AT VLD AND DHN LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. WINDS  
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS  
OR LESS WITH CHANCES FOR 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BETWEEN 1-2 FEET FOR ALL  
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE  
LOCALLY ENHANCED BY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A WETTER THAN USUAL PATTERN PREVAILING FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS  
THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE AREA; HOWEVER, WITH PW WELL OVER 2 INCHES,  
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES PONDING OF  
WATER ON ROADWAYS. NEXT WEEKS PATTERN LOOKS EXTREMELY WET FOR THE  
REGION WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A QUASI-  
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN CAN LEAD  
TO TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DETAILS ARE STILL  
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED  
CLOSELY AS MODELS HONE IN ON A SOLUTION.  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 91 74 90 74 93 / 50 20 80 30 50  
PANAMA CITY 89 78 88 77 91 / 60 40 80 40 30  
DOTHAN 90 73 89 72 93 / 50 20 90 20 30  
ALBANY 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 90 20 30  
VALDOSTA 91 73 89 73 91 / 60 20 90 20 50  
CROSS CITY 92 75 90 75 91 / 60 30 70 50 60  
APALACHICOLA 89 78 88 77 91 / 50 40 80 50 40  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN  
SHORT TERM...BUNKER  
LONG TERM...BUNKER  
AVIATION...HARRIGAN  
MARINE...BUNKER  
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN  
HYDROLOGY...BUNKER  
 
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