773  
FXUS62 KTAE 190508  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [718 PM EDT]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH  
CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG IT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH WINDS  
REMAINING AROUND 5-10MPH OVERNIGHT AND THE CLOUDINESS, TEMPS WON'T  
BOTTOM OUT TO THEIR DEW POINTS, EVEN WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING  
IN. DID NOT CHANGE LOWS MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH  
TEMPS DROPPING TO THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]
 
 
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVE. BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE MOISTURE WITH  
THIS WAVE WILL BE OUT OF PHASE, WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE FORCING  
AS WELL. THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
HIGHS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL, WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR.  
 
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AND  
HIGHS WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY  
ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH AT LEAST  
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY,  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO CALM.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
OUTSIDE OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, NO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO FLOODING IS OCCURING OR ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 67 43 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PANAMA CITY 65 47 66 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DOTHAN 63 39 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ALBANY 63 38 65 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 10  
VALDOSTA 66 42 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CROSS CITY 68 46 70 45 72 / 10 10 0 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 66 48 67 49 69 / 10 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA  
FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO  
APALACHICOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH  
TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM  
SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS  
FROM APALACHICOLA TO MEXICO BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM MEXICO BEACH TO OKALOOSA WALTON COUNTY LINE FL  
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LN  
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN  
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN  
AVIATION...MCD  
MARINE...HARRIGAN  
FIRE WEATHER...PULLIN  
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSTONE  
 
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