160
FXUS62 KTAE 262335
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AFTER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S. POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A VERY LOW (10%) CHANCE AT MUCH OF OUR AREA RECEIVING
1.0" OR MORE OF MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM UNTIL AROUND SUNSET MAINLY
JUST EAST THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF GA INTO THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND
AND WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER IN THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST ATTM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY SHUTOFF RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THAT SAID, ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO HOLD ONTO A 10% CHANCE FOR A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
DRY CONDITIONS LINGER TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN THIS WORK WEEK WILL BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CRAWLS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE EASING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NEXT WEEKEND'S
FORECAST IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
AN H5 RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY, BUT WARM, TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL FLIRT WITH 90, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
BIG BEND.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PUSH
THE H5 RIDGE AXIS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
H5 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROLL ALONG THE FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING US AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY LARGELY HINGES ON WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS. IF IT'S SOUTH OF US,
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AND TAKES RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF IT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
COAST, OR EVEN INLAND, THEN WE'D HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
RAIN! FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS HAPPENS THANKS TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN US AS AN H5 TROUGH/LOW SWIRLS BETWEEN HUDSON
BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, IT'S ONE OF THOSE "THREAD THE
NEEDLE" KIND OF SCENARIOS. IF THE H5 TROUGH OR TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH, IT SQUASHES THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SOUTH AND WE MISS OUT ON THE RAIN. THE INVERSE IS TRUE WHERE IF
THINGS TRACK MORE NORTH, THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD GO WITH IT AND
WE'D BE LEFT WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF MUCH OF OUR AREA RECEIVING 1.0"
OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. IT'S NOT MUCH, BUT IT'S SOMETHING
WE'LL MONITOR GOING FORWARD AS IT'S OUR BEST CHANCE FOR MUCH-NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN A LONG WHILE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL SEND A BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WELL
TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS WITH
THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE AT ABY AND VLD AROUND 10Z WITH A TEMPO AT
DHN (13-17Z). CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CIGS FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARD
TLH AROUND 13Z AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD AT ECP, THE EXTENT
OF WHICH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THOSE TERMINALS IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DHN AND ABY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
PROVIDES LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BREEZES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE REGION. MINRH VALUES OF
30 TO 40 PERCENT ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR GEORGIA DISTRICTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF
MINRH DIPPING TO BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PERCENT. ELSEWHERE, MINRH WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 35 TO 45 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS
IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AS MINRH
VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL COME WITH THE MID-WEEK COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE'S ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH THIS FAR OUT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
SAID, THERE ARE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE TO NEAR ZERO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TRUDGES THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BEFORE STALLING IN THE NORTHERN
GULF EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, SO HAVE HELD ONTO RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE WORK WEEK ARE
0.10" AND 0.50" WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
US-82 IN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA.
ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEXT WEEKEND; THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL OF PICKING UP 1.0" OR MORE OF RAIN IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD. GRANTED, THAT CHANCE IS ONLY 10 PERCENT, BUT IT'S BETTER
THAN WE'VE HAD IN A LONG WHILE.
FOR MORE LOCAL DROUGHT INFORMATION & STATEMENTS, VISIT THE FOLLOWING
WEBSITES: WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT
WEATHER.GOV/TAE/DROUGHTINFORMATIONSTATEMENT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 88 64 87 60 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 83 66 85 66 / 30 10 10 0
DOTHAN 87 64 86 62 / 10 10 10 0
ALBANY 86 63 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 88 63 84 57 / 20 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 87 63 88 58 / 10 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 82 66 78 67 / 10 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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