357  
FXUS62 KTAE 231553  
AFDTAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
1053 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR  
THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING  
LESSENS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION [621 AM EST]
 
 
   
NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]
 
 
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE COAST TODAY WILL ALLOW  
FOR THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. WITH  
LIMITED LARGE-SCALE FORCING UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, ANY SHOWERS THAT  
OCCUR SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE  
60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S  
TO MID 50S.  
 
   
SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGING. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE UP THE RIDGE FROM  
THE WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE CONUS, HOWEVER, AS IT WEAKENS IT'LL STILL HAVE OUR REGION  
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS MEANS WAA WILL HELP PUSH OUR TEMPS INTO  
THE 70S WHILE ALSO INCREASING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S. SOME  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WITH  
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 0.50 INCHES OF  
ACCUMULATION. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID 50S AND  
DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 70S.  
 
   
LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]
 
 
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED IN THE  
SHORT TERM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY, WE SHOULD EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS. CURRENT POPS FOR MONDAY  
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE AROUND 50-70% FOR OUR NORTHERN  
COUNTIES IN SW GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA WITH LOWER POPS ACROSS OUR  
FLORIDA COUNTIES. DUE TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE, THE  
MOIST AIR MASS IT WILL HELP ADVECT INTO OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE AS CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BREAKS DOWN AND DOESN'T MAKE ITS  
WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WARM AIR MASS STAYS IN PLACE UNTIL  
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE A SECOND COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING OUR AREA. BEING THAT THIS LOOKS TO BE NEUTRALLY TILTED  
TROUGH WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE TIME OF  
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW  
THIS DEVELOPS IN THE COMING DAYS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO STEADILY  
DROP FROM THE MID 60S (TUES) TO THE MID 40S (SAT). EXPECT DAYTIME  
HIGHS TO ALSO STEADILY DROP FROM THE MID 70S (TUES) TO THE MID 60S  
(SAT).  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN  
TO RETURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT TLH AND  
ECP BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHOW A MODEST INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND UNTIL  
A COLD FRONT AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MOVES IT ALONG WITH THE  
POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDS THAT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY.  
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAY 7 REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 1.5 INCHES.  
THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS  
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY  
OCCUR (WHILE FOLLOWING ALL LOCAL, STATE, AND CDC GUIDELINES) BY  
CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TALLAHASSEE 64 53 66 55 74 / 10 20 0 0 10  
PANAMA CITY 64 56 67 58 72 / 20 20 0 0 30  
DOTHAN 61 49 62 55 73 / 0 10 0 0 40  
ALBANY 61 47 61 53 73 / 0 10 0 0 20  
VALDOSTA 64 50 64 54 76 / 0 20 10 0 0  
CROSS CITY 67 55 71 55 76 / 20 20 10 0 0  
APALACHICOLA 63 57 65 57 70 / 30 20 0 0 10  
 

 
   
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FL...NONE.  
GA...NONE.  
AL...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DOBBS  
NEAR TERM...DVD  
SHORT TERM...OLIVER  
LONG TERM...OLIVER  
AVIATION...DVD  
MARINE...OLIVER  
FIRE WEATHER...DVD  
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER  
 
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