120
FXHW60 PHFO 051310
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 AM HST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY,
FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WHILE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST,
BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND INCREASED SHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE, WITH MOISTURE POTENTIALLY SPREADING FARTHER EAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
RIDING ON THE MODERATE TRADES TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THESE
UPPER- LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
BESIDES PERHAPS HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT, BUT SHOULD
MAKE FOR SOME DYNAMIC SUNRISES AND SUNSETS.
AS THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
TRANSITIONS INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BUILDING TO THE DISTANT NORTHEAST WILL HELP TO DRIVE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE,
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE TRADEWIND PATTERN INTO THURSDAY,
FOCUSING SHALLOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. IN ADDITION, LEEWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH LIGHTER VEERED WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT IN ON THE WEAKENING TRADES AT THAT TIME, THESE SEA
BREEZES WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO FULLY COLLAPSE BY FRIDAY, GIVING WAY
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE FRONT NEARS KAUAI.
WHILE MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED, STATEWIDE
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL BUILD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS AND ONCE AGAIN LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST REACH THE
WESTERN ISLANDS, WHERE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
MEMBERS STALL THE FRONT NEAR KAUAI, OTHERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS, AND A FEW PROGRESS IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE BIG ISLAND,
HENCE THE DECREASED CONFIDENCE.
THE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STATE WILL
SEE BREEZY TO WINDY NE TRADES WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK OVER THE
REGION, INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN, KEEPING THE
MOISTURE CONFINED TO LOWER LEVELS AND FOCUSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
SITUATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND, NAMELY PHKO AND PHTO, FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND THROUGH 1600Z AND MAY BE CONTINUED THROUGH
MID MORNING.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BUILD
TODAY, INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS INTO THE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS THEN DECREASE FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A LARGE MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TODAY. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS FOR MOST COASTAL
WATERS INTO THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SCA WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI WATERS FOR SEAS, AND EXTENDED IN TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS COLD FRONT
WEAKENING AND STALLING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BLOW ACROSS
WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A GALE FORCE LOW THAT PASSED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE ON MONDAY HAS
PRODUCED A MODERATE TO LARGE MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST
(340-350 DEGREE) SWELL THAT WILL BUILD INTO HAWAIIAN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURF HEIGHTS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES WILL EXCEED SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE
STEADY DECLINING. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) WAS ISSUED THIS
MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. AN OVERLAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF
HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY GENERATE A LARGE NORTH-NORTHEAST (020-030 DEGREE) SWELL
LATE THIS WEEKEND, EASILY EXCEEDING HSA THRESHOLDS. DUE TO THE
SWELL ANGLE, HEAVY SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH FACING
HARBORS SUCH AS KAHULUI AND HILO ON SUNDAY.
SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. A
SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BOOST SOUTH SHORE
SURF HEIGHTS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A LARGER
OUT OF SEASON SOUTH SWELL POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURF FOR
EAST FACING SHORES SHOULD BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY TOMORROW WITH THE
INCREASING TRADE WINDS AND COULD ALSO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF NORTH
WRAP FROM THE MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL.
PEAK MONTHLY TIDES COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PREDICTED WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
SHORELINE AND IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAILY PEAK HIGH TIDE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES EXPOSED TO
THE LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE INVERSION WILL BE BETWEEN
6,500 TO 7,500 FEET TODAY AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD,
FURTHER STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI LEEWARD-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
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