420  
FXHW60 PHFO 250200  
AFDHFO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
400 PM HST SUN AUG 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
STABLE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE WORK WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY EAST  
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO THE MODERATE RANGE. TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE  
THE BIG ISLAND, WHICH COULD SEE INCREASED SHOWERS OVER THE KONA  
SLOPES THROUGH MID-WEEK. MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADES LOOK TO  
RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THIS AFTERNOON, VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE  
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT  
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF WEATHER  
ACROSS THE REGION, MAINTAINING PERSISTENT WARM, STABLE, AND DRY  
CONDITIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST AREAS ARE CLOUD  
AND SHOWER-FREE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DAYTIME  
SEA-BREEZE INDUCED CLOUD BUILDUPS ALONG THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG  
ISLAND. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR KAUAI, WHICH IS  
LOCATED CLOSER TO A TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE. SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY  
IN THE MODERATE RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY GUSTS.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY. WIND SPEEDS  
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, EASING SLIGHTLY WHEN  
COMPARED TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY, AND VEERING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE  
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT  
ACROSS TERRAIN-SHELTERED AREAS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A  
MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND  
PASSING ACROSS BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS  
MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SLOPES  
THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER  
OF STATE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN  
LOCALIZED AFTERNOON BREEZE ACTIVITY, VERY FEW SHOWERS ARE  
EXPECTED, ASIDE FROM BRIEF TERRAIN-ENHANCED WINDWARD UPSLOPE MAUKA  
SHOWERS.  
 
A NEW HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL BECOME  
ESTABLISHED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING MORE  
TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO RETURN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
STABLE, MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER CLOUDS  
AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
ISOLATED MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR  
WILL PREVAIL.  
 
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED  
THROUGH TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MAINTAINS MODERATE TO  
FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE WEEK. SMALL SWELL ENERGY EMANATING FROM  
THE SOUTHERLY QUADRANT SLOWLY DECLINES INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF  
SMALL LONGER PERIOD S SWELLS THEN ARRIVE BY TUESDAY PROVIDING A  
MODEST BOOST TO S SHORE SURF THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF ALONG N AND W  
FACING SHORES REMAINS NEARLY FLAT WHILE SURF ALONG E SHORES WILL  
REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SHORT PERIOD CHOP.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. VERY DRY  
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH RH DROPPING  
INTO THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE  
CASE AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.  
DESPITE THESE DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS HAVE  
KEPT THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT BAY. WITH THE WINDS  
EXPECTED TO EASE FURTHER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, NOT ANTICIPATING  
THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN  
AVIATION...FARRIS  
MARINE...JVC  
FIRE WEATHER...VAUGHAN  
 
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