027
FXHW60 PHFO 040203
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
403 PM HST SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RIDE
IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WILL LIKELY PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL DISRUPT TRADE FLOW WHILE
INCREASING STATEWIDE RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
WITH 850 MB WINDS WEAKENING TODAY, WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A
DOWNWARD TREND FROM LAST NIGHT. ASCAT PASS DURING THE DAY ALSO
SHOWED LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SLOWLY RECOVERING THIS AFTERNOON, THE RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS THE STATE. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO
BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AND THE TRADE
WINDS ARE NOW BACK TO OUR TYPICAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS
ACROSS THE STATE.
A 1030 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW
THE TRADE WIND INVERSION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5,000 TO 6,000 FEET AND
WILL LIKELY HOLD NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL,
MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
A DECREASE OF WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MODERATE TRADE
WINDS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
TRADES WILL LIKELY BECOME DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY INTO PARTS OF
THURSDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF GIL PASSES TO OUR NORTH. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN BLOB OF MOISTURE
PASSING NORTH OF HAWAII WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE STATE OF HAWAII. VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. WITH THE VARIABLE
WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS (POSSIBLY LOW 70S), WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. BY FRIDAY, WE
SHOULD THE THE REMNANTS OF GIL TO OUR WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE THE
RETURN OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS.
AVIATION
THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THEREFORE, AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TO
ISOLATED SEVERE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
TRADES EASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TRADE WINDS EASE,
AIRMET TANGO WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED TO EXCLUDE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED SEVERE TURBULENCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY BE
DROPPED ALTOGETHER BY MONDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTH THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
WITH THAT SAID, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY. TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, THEN STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY HAS BEEN SCALED BACK TO JUST THE WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A MODERATE, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EARLY
MONDAY. THIS SWELL MAY PEAK JUST BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA)
CRITERIA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DECLINING WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM A LOW FORMED SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND
AT THE END OF JULY, THAT MEASURED SEAS OF 35 TO 40 FEET AIMED
TOWARDS HAWAII. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THURSDAY AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD GET NEAR HSA CRITERIA
AT ITS PEAK.
SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL KEEP EAST FACING SHORES ELEVATED
AND CHOPPY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A MODERATE, MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN FROM THE ENERGY FROM FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE GIL.
A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TYPHOON
KROSA IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING A SMALL BUMP UP IN SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THIS EVENING AND HOLD THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER BUMP IS EXPECTED AS A SMALL, MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL LOOKS TO FILL IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOW SLOWLY RECOVERING THIS AFTERNOON AND
WINDS HAVE EASED JUST ENOUGH TO FALL BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST WITH
BREEZY TRADES ON MONDAY BECOMING MODERATE TRADES ON TUESDAY. THE
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STRONG BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTINUING ALONG THE
UPPER ELEVATIONS OF HALEAKALA ON MAUI AND THE MID TO UPPER SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND. WITH THE ADDED STRESS ON VEGETATION THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF TC GIL PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE LOW, HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INCLUDING THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...FOSTER
FIRE WEATHER...KINO
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