520
FXHW60 PHFO 121307
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
307 AM HST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG, BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL BEGIN TO MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD, EASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN TRADES DECREASING TO A MORE MODERATE TO
BREEZY PATTERN, PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME
MODELS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING TO THE ISLANDS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT PREVAILING TRADES WITH PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS IS LOOKING LIKE THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
STRONG, BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WELL
WEST HAS CREATED A LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
PORTRAYS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD
TOWARD CONUS WHILE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IDLE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS WILL LESSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT,
TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT MUCH
OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
AS A WHOLE AS SIMMERED DOWN FOR MOST ISLANDS, AS INDICATED BY THE
MOST RECENT ONE-HOUR RAINFALL SUMMARY, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. OF COURSE, THIS CHECKS OUT WITH A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN FOCUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS AND MAY VERY WELL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A LOW IS
BEING ILLUSTRATED JUST WEST OF THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY GETS
ABSORBED BY AN EVEN LARGER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM -- EXCEPT
RETAINING IT WEST OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AS THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH MAY BRING IN
HEAVIER RAIN TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS. CONVERSELY, THE ECMWF SHOWS A
MUCH WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPING THE
MOISTURE BAND WEST OF THE ISLANDS. FURTHER DETAIL WILL BE REQUIRED
TO SEE WHICH SITUATION BECOMES FRUITFUL. FOR NOW, TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY, AND FOR THE SAKE OF FORECAST CONTINUITY, HAVE
OPTED TO CONTINUE ADVERTISING PREVAILING TRADES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHRA WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS.
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR OAHU AND THE BIG
ISLAND. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE MID MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD TURB BELOW 070 FOR LEEWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO EASE.
MARINE
NEARSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW DECLINE IN THE SEAS ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES, SO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED
WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. ROUGH ELEVATED SURF WILL CONTINUE FOR
EAST FACING SHORES. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG HIGH BUILDS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ASCAT PASSES OVERNIGHT CONTINUED TO SHOW SCA
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THERE REMAIN
POCKETS OF SEAS AT 10 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND, SO EXPECT THE SCA TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES HAS DROPPED JUST
BELOW HSA LEVELS, BUT WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND ELEVATED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF AND POSSIBLY WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST
FACING SHORES OF OAHU AND KAUAI.
SMALL TO MEDIUM NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALLER SURF EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL THAT FILLED IN YESTERDAY
THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWEST SWELLS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SMALL ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SMALL WITH SOME BACKGROUND WINDSWELL FOR SELECT EXPOSURES.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS, DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AREA. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A NEW DEVELOPING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...M BALLARD
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