140
FXHW60 PHFO 241938
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
938 AM HST SUN MAY 24 2026
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS RIDGE STRENGTH AND POSITION
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY SUBTLE DAY TO DAY WIND SPEED CHANGES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
PERIODS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA THIS MORNING,
WITH SKIES A BIT LESS CLOUDY THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO DOWN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY A BIT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. ALL OF
THIS IS HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST SUN MAY 24 2026
THE INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW
BANDS OF UNSETTLED CUMULUS CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE AS EACH BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES QUICKLY THROUGH THE ISLAND
CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NARROW
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH BACK ON THE BROAD DOWNWARD MOVING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION, LIFTING
TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS INTO THE 6,000 TO 8,000 FOOT RANGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A WETTER PATTERN THAN NORMAL TO START
OUT OUR SUMMER DRY SEASON.
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND SPEEDS.
OVERALL EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO BLOW ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE ARE SOME
EARLY HINTS AT AN UNSTABLE CLOUD BAND, THE REMNANTS OF A
DISSIPATED EAST PACIFIC FRONT, MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS NEXT
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR THESE UNSTABLE CLOUDS ALONG THIS
BAND WILL BE SUPPORTED FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FORCING MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
STATEWIDE. ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS ANY SHOWER BANDS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY SWIFTLY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WILL FALL BETWEEN THE SATURDAY EVENING TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
TIME PERIODS. STAY TUNED AS THESE WET WEATHER IMPACTS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD GROWS
SHORTER.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOW CEILINGS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN PASSING SHOWERS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM HST SUN MAY 24 202
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EASE
INTO THE FRESH TO STRONG CATEGORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AT SIMILAR LEVELS
TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING MONDAY AS A MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH
SWELL LINGERS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AT THE
NDBC 51002 BUOY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH DEPICT A STEADY TREND
WITH PEAK ENERGY CENTERED AROUND THE 15-SECOND BAND. A FRESH
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN BUILD TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY EASING THURSDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK, A MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG-
PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED DUE TO A STORM-FORCE LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A
LARGE FETCH OF 40 TO 50 KT WINDS GENERATING SEAS OF 35 TO JUST
OVER 40 FT, FOCUSED TOWARD HAWAII ALONG THE 190-DEGREE DIRECTIONAL
BAND. EXPECT SURF TO BEGIN BUILDING LOCALLY FRIDAY WITH 20+
SECOND FORERUNNERS, THEN PEAK ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL HOLD TODAY
BEFORE LOWERING MONDAY AS A SMALL NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES
THROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AT THE NDBC
51001 BUOY NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH DEPICT A STEADY TREND
WITH PEAK ENERGY CENTERED AROUND THE 13-SECOND BAND. LATE-SEASON
NORTH PACIFIC ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK DUE TO A STORM-
FORCE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND 2000 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE STATE AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS, EXPECT LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS TO ARRIVE
TUESDAY, WITH THIS SOURCE GRADUALLY BUILDING DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN THEREAFTER. ABOVE-AVERAGE SURF IS LIKELY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY NEAR THE PEAK BEFORE LOWERING THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN GRADUALLY LOWER BY MIDWEEK AS THE TRADES EASE SLIGHTLY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...PARKER
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...GIBBS
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