512  
FXHW60 PHFO 260152  
AFDHFO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
352 PM HST SAT JUN 25 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO  
A GREATER COVERAGE OF LEEWARD SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE  
STABLE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL  
LOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE  
BACKGROUND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO  
DIMINISHED STABILITY IN THE LOWEST 10KFT WHICH HAS FAVORED AN  
ENHANCED COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS THIS  
AFTERNOON AS THE HYBRID SEA BREEZE PATTERN FOCUSES CONVERGENCE  
OVER LEEWARD ZONES. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING WILL  
ALLOW MODERATE TRADES TO ONCE AGAIN FOCUS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY  
OVER WINDWARD SLOPES. AS THE EXISTING POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE  
GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD, THE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RESEMBLE THAT OF TODAY, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT  
MUTED AS MOISTURE QUALITY GRADUALLY DECLINES.  
 
STABILITY WILL THEN GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. FIRST,  
AS DRIER AIR AROUND 700MB ADVECTS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE EAST  
AND THEN AS THE RESIDENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO  
PARTIALLY SHEAR BACK INTO THE WESTERLIES. PRESSURE RISES OVER THE  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BASIN WILL BRING A RETURN TO LOCALLY BREEZY  
TRADES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT WINDWARD  
TERMINALS SUCH AS PHTO AND PHLI AS WELL AS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES  
OF ALL ISLANDS AS MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH  
ISLAND TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD AT CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT  
THEN INCREASE MONDAY. A FRONT PASSING BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND A  
SURFACE HIGH MORE THAN 1000 NM NORTH OF KAUAI WILL KEEP THE WINDS  
AT GENTLE TO MODERATE STRENGTH IN THE SHORT TERM. THE FRONT WILL  
DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FAR  
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG LEVELS BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS  
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND  
LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
TWO PULSES OF SOUTH SWELL WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED SOUTH SHORE SURF  
THIS WEEK. LOW, LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS FROM THE FIRST SWELL ARE  
SHOWING UP AT THE BUOYS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND WILL PRODUCE  
RISING SOUTH SHORE SURF SUNDAY. SURF WILL PEAK A COUPLE OF FEET  
OVERHEAD MONDAY, THEN BUILD NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT PULSE ARRIVES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY  
DECLINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES WILL SEE A BUMP  
IN SMALL, SHORT PERIOD SWELL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURF ALONG  
NORTH SHORES WILL DROP TUESDAY, WHILE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS  
WILL BOOST ROUGH EAST SHORE SURF TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JVC  
AVIATION...BURKE  
MARINE...WROE  
 
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