914
FXHW60 PHFO 251947
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
947 AM HST MON MAY 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER INTO SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SOME OF THE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODELS FOR POPS AND RELATED FIELDS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TREND THAN BEFORE, BASED ON THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME SHOWERY CLOUDS RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. A RIDGE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS STEADY. AS SUCH, THE WINDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED TO REFLECT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TREND AS SEEN IN A NUMBER OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS REACHING SOME OF THE WINDIER AREAS AT TIMES,
BUT DO NOT FEEL THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF OVERALL CONDITIONS IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OVERNIGHT 12Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWED A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION AROUND 9,000 FEET, UP FROM 6,000 FEET THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTING A SOUNDING FROM LIHUE BOTH YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND LAST NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
SOME WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING TO THE
WEST OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD HELP TO ENHANCE
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AT THE END OF
THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE GLOBAL MODEL THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. ADDITIONALLY, NEAR NORMAL 500
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS
BRINGS IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN THE ECMWF NEAR MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT WOULD SEEM THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COULD ENHANCE TRADE WINDS, BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEYOND THAT BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOW CIGS AND SHRA POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD
LOCATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN ACROSS ALL ISLANDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 AM HST MON MAY 25 2026
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EXPOSED WATERS AND CHANNELS. EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO
A WEAKNESS FORMING IN THE RIDGE AS A FRONT PASSES FAR TO THE
NORTH.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY AS A
MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL LINGERS. A FRESH LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN BUILD TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY EASING THURSDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND DUE
TO A STORM-FORCE LOW THAT PASSED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A LARGE FETCH OF 40 TO 50 KT WINDS
GENERATING SEAS OF 35 TO JUST OVER 40 FT, FOCUSED TOWARD HAWAII
ALONG THE 190-DEGREE DIRECTIONAL BAND. EXPECT SURF TO BEGIN
BUILDING LOCALLY FRIDAY WITH 20+ SECOND FORERUNNERS, THEN PEAK
ABOVE/AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE LONG
RANGE, EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
JUNE AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS WITHIN OUR SWELL WINDOW DOWN
AROUND NEW ZEALAND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL LOWER TODAY
AS A SMALL NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL LINGERS, BUT WILL TREND UP ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE LATE SEASON NORTH PACIFIC ACTIVITY
CONTINUES. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS NEXT SWELL
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS, EXPECT LONG-PERIOD
FORERUNNERS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, WITH THIS SOURCE GRADUALLY BUILDING
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THEREAFTER. ABOVE-AVERAGE SURF IS LIKELY BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY NEAR THE PEAK BEFORE LOWERING THURSDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK,
THEN GRADUALLY LOWER LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TRADES EASE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU
LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...EVANS
MARINE...GIBBS
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