314
FXHW60 PHFO 190154
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
354 PM HST SUN JAN 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADES HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE STATE, AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES AND COASTS THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT INCREASED SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON, BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AREAS. MEANWHILE, THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS HAVE ALSO OCCURRED IN SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS, SUCH AS
THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. SHOWERS, ON THE OTHER HAND,
HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT. STATEWIDE RAIN GAUGE NETWORKS HAVE
REPORTED LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT THE VAST MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, WITH SITES REPORTING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
A SURFACE HIGH FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MOVE EVEN FARTHER
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A FRONT APPROACHES
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THEY GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST SLOPES AND COASTS.
THE FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY, DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL REACH KAUAI COUNTY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND MAUI
COUNTY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A DAYTIME SEA BREEZE/NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZE REGIME. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY
STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THERE REMAIN SOME KEY DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING
WHAT HAPPENS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. AS WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH BIG ISLAND, WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT STALLING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WASH BACK WESTWARD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AND HIGHER CHANCES COULD LINGER OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL VEER MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BY
MONDAY, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT BELOW 7000 FT FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND DUE TO THE GUSTY EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER, THE AIRMET
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN.
MARINE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE
DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR
NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, MOVING DOWN THE THE ISLAND
CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND STALLING OUT ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY INTO
THURSDAY.
A SHORT-LIVED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND DECLINE
MONDAY. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ACROSS EXPOSED
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI AND OAHU, AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI, WHERE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY READINGS SHOW A WAVE HIGH
INCREASE AT WAIMEA BAY, AND A DECREASE ALREADY SEEN AT THE 51001.
ANOTHER MODERATE, LONG PERIOD, NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS TUESDAY, AND LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS SWELL WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES.
AS WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT, SURF WILL LOWER ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THERE ARE NO
NOTEWORTHY SWELLS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU, AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...FOSTER
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