663
FXHW60 PHFO 101339
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 AM HST THU SEP 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE,
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE BIG ISLAND. TRADE WINDS ARE
STARTING TO FILTER BACK INTO THE STATE, AND WITH THE RETURNING
TRADES, EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DISCUSSION
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO NUDGE THE FORECAST TO THE
LATEST SOLUTION OF THE GFS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
SATELITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) CONTINUES TO SHOW
ELEVATED VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE. THE OVERNIGHT
HILO SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH NEAR OAHU THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
MOVE TO THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY, WE CAN EXPECT TRADE
WINDS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE WILL LINGER,
BUT THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TRADE WIND PATTERN TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE STATE, AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, IT MAKES IT FEEL WARM AND MUGGY.
MODELS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S FRIDAY
NIGHT, PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
THE TRADE WINDS HAVE SET UP, WHICH COMBINED WITH MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED IN HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE SHOWS A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
BECAUSE OF THIS, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM VFR TO
MVFR. THE LOWER CEILINGS, AND AT TIMES VISIBILITY, ARE DUE TO THE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE OR SO, WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS FOR THE BIG ISLAND, MAUI, LANAI, AND
MOLOKAI THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. SHOWERS SHOULD WRAP UP BETWEEN
12-15Z FOR MOST SITES, WITH THE FORECAST SHOWING DRIER TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR SITES PMDY AND NSTU, THE FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 18-21Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND BASED ON THE GFS, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS
LINGERING LATER IN THE DAY FOR PMDY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TODAY, AND ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY AND THEN PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT MODERATE MID-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BELOW AVERAGE SURF
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO EAST AND
NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONES. SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES CONTINUES TO RECEIVE A SMALL BUMP DUE TO
LOWELL. THIS SHORT-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL QUICKLY FADE,
ALLOWING SURF TO BECOME TINY ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES TODAY AS
LOWELL WEAKENS AND TRACKS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR WEAK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...WALSH
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