663
FXHW60 PHFO 110127
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
327 PM HST SAT MAY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT
NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY SPILLING INTO LEEWARD AREAS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE TRADES. SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON OVER KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TO BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS AND THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW MOVING INTO
WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES, ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY TRADES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. THE TRADES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF FRONTS PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES, AND SOME LEEWARD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
COULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AIRMET
TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 7000 FEET FOR
ALL LEEWARD AREAS.
TRADES WILL CARRY IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE
EAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS, VISIBILITY AND BRIEF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR THE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER ON TONIGHT FOR SELECT WINDWARD
AREAS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A
NOTCH THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. TRADE WINDS
COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS TO
DROP JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR MANY AREAS. SCA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES CONTINUES TO TREND UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A NEW, LONG PERIOD, SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES
TO FILL IN. OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOWED A STEADY INCREASE THIS MORNING
AND NOW SEEMS TO BE LEVELING OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SWELL HEIGHTS
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 15 TO 16 SECONDS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURF
HEIGHTS PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SURF HEIGHTS AS THE TRADES EASE
SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AS
THE CURRENT SHORT-PERIOD NORTH SWELL FADES. A SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL SHOULD FILL IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME SMALL SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...KINO
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