292
FXHW60 PHFO 120124
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
324 PM HST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS TWO FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER TUESDAY AS THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONT MOVE BACK WEST OVER THE STATE. THE SECOND
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE QUITE GUSTY. THE WEEK SHOULD END COOL
AND FAIRLY DRY WITH TRADES RE-ESTABLISHED.
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON ON OAHU, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE. OTHERWISE, SKIES WERE PARTLY
CLOUDY ON MOST ISLANDS AND WINDS WERE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD KAUAI COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT NEAR THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER PASSAGE. TUESDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY
AIR COMING IN WITH THE FRONT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
SWING RAPIDLY AROUND TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK WEST OVER THE STATE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL FORM AS THIS OCCURS.
WEDNESDAY, A NEW FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
MASS FIELD ADJUSTS TO AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WE WILL HAVE
A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND JUST DOWNWIND (WHAT
IS NORMALLY WINDWARD WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LEEWARD DURING THIS
PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS). HEADLINES FOR WIND MAY BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET TO
KAUAI COUNTY AROUND SUNSET, OAHU IN THE EVENING, MAUI COUNTY
BEFORE SUNRISE, AND BIG ISLAND BY NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, SOME POSSIBLY STRONG. FAST MOVEMENT
THROUGH THE STATE SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF FLOODING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. TRADES WILL BUILD BACK IN, PUSHING THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED AS THIS PREVENTS THE MOISTURE FROM PASSING BACK OVER THE
STATE AS WITH THE FIRST FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AGAIN TODAY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS (ESPECIALLY OAHU).
A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND THEN PROGRESS
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FILL IN, ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, AIRMET SIERRA
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, STARTING ON KAUAI.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM WEST TO
EAST, STALLING OUT NEAR THE BIG ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE ISLANDS, SPREADING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL, THESE ELEVATED COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10
FEET ARE FORECAST TO LINGER OVER WATERS AND CHANNELS EXPOSED TO
THIS NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL ENERGY. THIS SWELL WILL HOLD ABOVE HSA THRESHOLDS INTO
MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER MUCH LARGER OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST (320-330
DEGREE) SWELL SWIFTLY BUILDS SURF TO HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW)
LEVELS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN HSW ON
MONDAY TO COVER THIS NEXT WARNING LEVEL SURF EVENT. YET ANOTHER
XL NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF WARNING LEVEL
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WILL DIMINISH INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A CONTINUED DISRUPTION IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-WAIANAE
COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...VAUGHAN
MARINE...WALSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page