297
FXHW60 PHFO 300604
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
804 PM HST WED JUL 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE TO PASS HAWAII TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. TRADES WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BECOMING BREEZY
TO LOCALLY STRONG FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TRADES WILL EASE TO MORE
TYPICALLY BREEZY SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY. THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION LATER IN THE MORNING. NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM HST WED JUL 29 2026
THE REMNANT LOW OF FAUSTO, ROUGHLY 160 MILES NORTH OF OAHU, WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWEST, NORTH OF THE
STATE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TRAILING CLOUD BAND WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEABREEZES IS PRODUCING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND OVER INTERIOR AREAS. RAINFALL RATES ARE LESS THAN .1 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH HIGHER RATES OF .5 INCHES IN SOME OF THE BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS. THE BAND OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. SO FAR THE SMALL AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BRIEF
AND NOT CAUSING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
THURSDAY, A STRONG HIGH WILL DEVELOP FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ALLOWING BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADEWIND PATTERN WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO
FILTER ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO DIP BELOW 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS UNDER THIS DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS COULD MEET OR
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TRADES WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS AS HURRICANE GENEVIEVE TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE, DISRUPTING THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
AVIATION
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT FOR ISLANDS IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MODERATE TRADES BEGINNING TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE FAUSTO PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. A WEAK BAND
OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LOWERED CEILING
AND VISIBILITY IN SHRA AS THIS BAND MOVES OVER THE REGION. ON OAHU
AND KAUAI, CEILINGS OVER TERRAIN SHOULD REMAIN LESS EXTENSIVE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN
THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE MAY
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. VFR WILL PREVAIL LEEWARD.
MARINE
VARIABLE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY TRADES BUILDING IN FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AS FAUSTO'S REMNANT LOW EXITS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS TRADES INCREASE TONIGHT, REACHING STRONG LEVELS
FOR THE WINDIER WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. TRADES
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD NECESSITATE AN
EXPANSION OF THE SCA TO THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER ON. A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING TRADE WINDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS INDICATE CONTINUED DECLINE IN EASTERLY
SWELL. A SMALL BUMP IN SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL FROM
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAUSTO DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS
FORECAST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES AND FLAT TO TINY SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SURF ALONG E SHORES TREND BACK UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BUILDING SHORT
PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL AND RENEWED MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD E SWELL,
THIS TIME EMANATING FROM HURRICANE GENEVIEVE IN THE E PAC.
A MEDIUM PERIOD S SWELL BUILDING TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PUSH
S SHORE SURF TOWARD THE SUMMER AVERAGE (5-6FT) FOR THURSDAY. SURF
THEN FADES GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A MIX OF SMALL S
SWELLS MAINTAINS SURF SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 PM HST WED JUL 29 2026
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE STATE THURSDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO LOCALLY STRONG FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS BECOME STRONG LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A
DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WHILE KBDI WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
PAILOLO CHANNEL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...TSAMOUS
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...QUESADA
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