714
FXHW60 PHFO 180144
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 PM HST SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND SOMEWHAT WET TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE, WINDY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER SELECT AREAS ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY DUE TO THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED
WITH SOME AFTERNOON DAY TIME HEATING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY DECREASE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY EAST MAUI, WHERE WE ARE SEEING FREQUENT TRADE WIND
SHOWERS. HILO SOUNDING SHOWED OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN COULD VERY WELL
CONTINUE FOR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
FREQUENT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.
OVERALL, BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT COMBINED WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AT TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LEEWARD SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, WHICH SHOULD MAKE TEMPERATURES
FEEL WARMER THAN NORMAL.
INCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY. LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG HIGH DEVELOPING FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD VERY
WELL REACH WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR
SELECT AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF TERRAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RIDE IN WITH THE WINDY TRADE WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY AND ARE
PRIMARILY DELIVERING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
SOME LEEWARD AREAS HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TODAY. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT,
WHILE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS CAN STILL EXPECT INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
TOMORROW, AND RETURNING STABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS MIDWEEK.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR NORTH
THROUGH EAST SECTIONS OF OAHU, THE EAST SECTION OF MAUI, AND
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS OVER OAHU SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WHILE MAUI AND BIG ISLAND MAY STILL HAVE
CONDITIONS LAST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES BECOME STRONG DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, STABILITY INCREASES LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NNW DECLINES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURF
ALONG EXPOSED SHORELINES FOLLOWING SUIT. ANOTHER MEDIUM PERIOD NNW
SWELL WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SURF ALONG N SHORES
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
SIMILARLY SIZED PULSE ON TUESDAY. SURF ALONG W SHORES REMAINS
STEADY AS NNW SWELL DECLINES IN FAVOR A NEW LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL.
A MIX OF SMALL MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD S SWELLS MAINTAINS AVERAGE
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONG PERIOD SSW SWELL WILL FAVOR INCREASED SURF
ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY. ADDITIONAL MEDIUM TO LONG
PERIOD S SWELL ARRIVE THROUGH THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, TRADES MAINTAIN
CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD SURF AND FRESH EASTERLY SWELL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
TIDES PEAK AROUND 2.5 TO 3.0 FT MLLW TODAY. MINOR OVERWASH OF LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...JVC
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