254
FXHW60 PHFO 191937
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
937 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STATEWIDE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE
THE SKIES OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS
ONGOING ACROSS THE STATE. AN INCREASING TREND IN STABILITY AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIMIT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. KONA
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY STILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UPSLOPE
DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT
INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST. TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DECLINE BY MIDWEEK.
ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS COULD REACH UP TO 2.5"
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ACCORDING TO GLOBAL
MODELS, WHICH IS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MODELS
HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE NHC. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STATUS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH NHC.NOAA.GOV, AND LOCAL WEATHER FORECASTS AT
WEATHER.GOV/HFO.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOCUS CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. THIS MORNING, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOST CONSISTENTLY
BEEN FUNNELED ACROSS WINDWARD KAUAI AND THE AREA AROUND HILO ON
THE BIG ISLAND, BRINGING MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY,
THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THOUGH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOW.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS. THIS
AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST, THEREFORE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THESE WATERS. A TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HOLDS TODAY.
THEN ANOTHER SOUTH SWELL WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND BOTH SWELLS WILL
DECLINE GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALLER LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD
FILL IN LATE NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES CONTINUE. SURF
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY, WITH A MINOR
BUMP POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THEN A SMALL LONG
PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL SWELL COULD BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF NORBERT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, AND SHOULD FILTER IN SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 6500
AND 8000 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE WEATHER...WALSH
UPDATE...M BALLARD
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