801
FXHW60 PHFO 141341
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
341 AM HST TUE APR 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AS THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
MAUI COUNTY AND THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. PERIODS OF SHOWERY,
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAY ALSO PROMOTE LOCALIZED
LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A
RETURN TO LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING GENERALLY
QUIETER WEATHER, HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE BY THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN SHOWER BAND HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL. RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE SUBTROPICAL JET, CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD,
WILL HELP STEER THESE INTERMITTENT SHOWER BANDS OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, ENSURING DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH IN THE
UPPER-60S, LEADING TO NOTICEABLY HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE
LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS IN THE FORECAST, INITIALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE, ANY DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LAND AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. THIS MAY BRING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE, THESE WEAK,
INTERMITTENT SHOWER BANDS WILL PERSIST AS THEY RIDE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FOLLOWING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, ONCE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WILL FINALLY
DISLODGE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OPENING THE DOORS FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ITS PLACE. LIGHT TRADES ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE, HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE VICINITY OF THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, NOR SUPER
IMPACTFUL CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE
TRADES. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DETERMINE IF IT ENHANCES
THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY (ESPECIALLY WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE), OR IF IT IS SIMPLY
PASSING THROUGH.
AVIATION
LOW CIGS AND ISOL SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DRIVEN BY LAND-SEA BREEZES. THE FORECAST GENERALLY TRENDS BACK
TOWARD TRADES TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS AND LOCALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN THE TYPICAL WINDY
CHANNELS SURROUNDING MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
A SMALL, SHORT-PERIOD, NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD, SOUTH SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT THE NEAR SHORE
BUOYS AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH
LIGHTER THAN AVERAGE TRADE WINDS NEAR AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS
FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN SURF MAY
OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE OF EASTERLY FLOW.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...THOMAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page