444
FXHW60 PHFO 041515
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
515 AM HST FRI SEP 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE LOWELL PASSING
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN THE
FORECAST TODAY. EXPECT DECREASING WIND SPEED TRENDS THIS WEEKEND
AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
WEAKENS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS OVER
LEEWARD ZONES. HURRICANE LOWELL WILL REMAIN NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEATHER IMPACTS SUCH AS HIGH SURF AND
HEAVY RAIN MAY EXTEND HUNDREDS OF MILES FROM THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE LOWELL.
DISCUSSION
LOOKING INTO THE SATELLITE IMAGERY A LONG BAND OF UNSETTLED CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE RIDING INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE TRADE
WINDS THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER
THE WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ELSEWHERE HURRICANE LOWELL ROUGHLY 600 MILES SOUTH OF OAHU
AND KAUAI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF LOWELL REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE LOWELL WILL REMAIN NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR HIGH SURF, STORM SURGE,
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS FOR PORTIONS OF HAWAII
INCLUDING IN PARTICULAR THE ISLANDS OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL ISLAND,
PRODUCING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HEAVY
RAINFALL TRENDS FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HURRICANE LOWELL TURNS
NORTHWARD. INITIAL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2 TO
8 INCHES STATEWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 10
INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG TERRAIN FAVORED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SLOPES.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WITH HURRICANE
LOWELL WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ONWARD AS A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
SETS UP ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PASSING
MVFR SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TRADES TO BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SITES GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS FOR WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS AFTER 20Z
FRI. BRIEF SHOWERS RETURN AFTER 08Z TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY MVFR
CIGS.
HURRICANE LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THIS WESTERLY TRACK, REGIONAL TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY PER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE FAR NORTH.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING FOR WINDWARD PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST DOWNSTREAM OF HIGH TERRAIN. AIRMET TANGO WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
A SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY, HURRICANE LOWELL
IS PASSING NEAR 450 NM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK WEST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WILL STRENGTHEN THE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR
GALE FORCE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM HURRICANE LOWELL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH AS HURRICANE LOWELL TURNS NORTH,
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY. HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE
STATE, IS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AS FOR HURRICANE KARINA,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KARINA WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SWELLS FROM HURRICANE LOWELL ARE FILLING IN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. A LARGE, MEDIUM-PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE KARINA
IS FILLING IN AND WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING HIGH
END ADVISORY LEVEL SURF OR WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES. THE HSA HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
EAST FACING SHORES. THE SWELL FROM LOWELL WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE, THE
FORECAST FOR SWELLS AND SEAS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL, CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF EXTRA- LARGE SURF
(EXCEEDING WARNING LEVELS) ALONG SOUTH AND WESTERN EXPOSURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COINCIDING ALSO WITH MONTHLY HIGH TIDES, THIS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO HARBOR ENTRANCES, CHANNELS, AS
WELL AS COASTAL PROPERTIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE INCLUDING ROADWAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS SLOWLY WEAKENS. PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WINDWARD MOUNTAIN SLOPES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS UNDER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES
INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL RANGE FROM
6,000 TO 7,000 FEET ELEVATION TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR SOUTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES OF ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...BOHLIN
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...WALSH
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN
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