899
FXHW60 PHFO 050140
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
340 PM HST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
A KONA LOW NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES JUST WEST OF KAUAI. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LEADING
TO A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALLOWING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
TO TAPER OFF. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING COULD STILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE CLEARLY SHOW THE IMPACT OF THE KONA LOW ACROSS
THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANT, AND A SERIES OF FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED,
WITH SOME STILL IN EFFECT. AS OF 3 PM HST, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE WIDESPREAD, WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
OFF THE COAST SOUTH AND WEST OF KAUAI COUNTY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE STATE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIS KONA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS OF 3 PM HST, THE LOW WAS ABOUT
300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN BACK SOUTHEAST, STAYING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE
WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING
MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOODING.
THE STATEWIDE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE STATEWIDE, BECOMING CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS IN SOME COASTAL AREAS. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
MEETING CRITERIA OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A WIND ADVISORY.
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW/ICE ARE EXPECTED ON THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER
THAN A HALF OF A FOOT AND HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
SUMMIT ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
SUMMITS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BOTH OF THESE ARE IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM HST MONDAY TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN DRAWN NORTHWARD AND PW VALUES ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE TO RISE. VALUES PRESENTLY AROUND 1.7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE RISES, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS THROUGH MONDAY (POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY)
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE KONA LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD AIR
AND LIFT ALOFT, ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE
THREAT DECREASES AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE LATE
TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TWO DAYS OF SEA-
AND LAND-BREEZE-DOMINATED SHOWERS.
NEXT WEEKEND, A BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE STATE. A LOW FAR NORTH OF THE AREA MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND, AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION. BUT IT IS SEVEN DAYS OUT, SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH.
AVIATION
A KONA LOW TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EXPECT SUCH WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS,
WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. ICING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LAYERED
CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
AREAS, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. AIRMET TANGO IS
IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE MAY BE
EXPANDED TO LOWER ELEVATIONS MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICING.
MARINE
A KONA LOW, NOW CHURNING JUST OUTSIDE THE FAR NORTHWEST OFFSHORE
WATERS, WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WESTERN MOVEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS LOW WILL AND HAS INTRODUCED FREQUENT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE
OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE HAWAIIAN WATERS. AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER
WEST INTO TUESDAY, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
STRONG TO LOCAL GALE FORCE, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION, SEAS WILL BE BUILDING FROM 10 TO NEAR 15 FEET ACROSS
MOST NEARSHORE WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT ROUGH,
ELEVATED SEAS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
A MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH TO NORTHEAST (020 DEGREE) SWELL
CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL SIZE, MEDIUM PERIOD
NORTHWEST (310 DEGREE) SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY AND HANG ON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN EASTERLY WIND FETCH GENERATED BY LOWERING PRESSURES SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE EASTERLY WIND
WAVE SWELL. THIS BUILDING EAST SWELL WILL IMPACT MOST EASTERN
FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SMALLER PERIOD CHOP WILL REACH ADVISORY HEIGHTS EARLY MONDAY. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST-FACING SHORES FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHER NEW YEAR SPRING TIDE WILL HANG ON ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THEREFORE, THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MINOR LOW LYING COASTAL AREA
FLOODING DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-
KAUAI MOUNTAINS-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MAUI LEEWARD WEST-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-
HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-KOOLAU WINDWARD-KOOLAU LEEWARD-MOLOKAI-
LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
OLOMANA-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-KOOLAU WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-
SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG ISLAND
NORTH.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...BLOOD
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