153
FXHW60 PHFO 050141
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
341 PM HST SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING LIMITED
SHOWERS MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP
WEAKEN WINDS AND TURN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS HAWAII.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HAWAII AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND STABLE WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD
SLOPES, BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY, AND
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY, AS A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS, WHILE A
COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO AROUND 70
THURSDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVES IN, HEAVY RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY. THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ALL THE ISLANDS WILL BE
IMPACTED AT SOME POINT. THUS, NOT GETTING TOO SPECIFIC IN THE
FORECAST DETAILS FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL WETTER PATTERN AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SHORT-LIVED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY.
AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IN DOWNWIND
MOUNTAIN AREAS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND TRADES WILL START TO DIMINISH.
TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY TO CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDWEEK AND BRING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A NEW SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL SLOWLY FILL IN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH A PEAK SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SURF WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK BE MAINTAINED BY A MIX OF NEW, SMALL SOUTH SWELLS.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PEAK
MONDAY, PRODUCING A SMALL BUMP IN SURF THROUGH TUESDAY. SURF WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND UP FOR NORTH SHORES AS A SLIGHTLY LARGER LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKS WEDNESDAY. SURF MAY APPROACH MODERATE LEVELS
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL FURTHER INCREASES.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE ELEVATED AND CHOPPY THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADES.
A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD WEST SWELL ORIGINATING FROM TYPHOON CHOI-WAN
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MODERATE SURF FOR WEST-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES JUST
ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR FIRE WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER RISK THEN DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES, WINDS DECREASE, AND
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE INVERSION SHOULD RANGE FROM 6
KFT TO 8 KFT THROUGH MONDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...TS
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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