738
FXHW60 PHFO 280139
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
OCCASIONALLY MOVE OVER SOUTH FACING AREAS. ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND
SHOWER BUILDUPS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EACH ISLAND. DUE TO THE STABILITY OF THE
RIDGE, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK FRONT
COULD INCREASE SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT COULD INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WELL AS
BRING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED, LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS SELECT ISLAND INTERIORS. SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWERS CAN
BE OBSERVED OVER THE LEEWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
FAIR WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE DUE
TO A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGING WILL KEEP SHOWERS
MOSTLY LIGHT AND ISOLATED THROUGH THURSDAY, AND KEEP WINDS LIGHT
WITH SEA AND LAND BREEZES. SEA BREEZES WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO BUILD UP OVER ISLAND INTERIORS, WITH OVERNIGHT LAND
BREEZES CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS. WEAK ISLAND CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO RANDOM AREAS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN WHERE IT IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND WASH OUT IN
BETWEEN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH KAUAI BY FRIDAY MORNING, OAHU BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAUI
COUNTY BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL INITIALLY BRING MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE, FOLLOWED
BY NORTHEAST, THEN EAST. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE FRONT COULD END
UP STALLING IN BETWEEN MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA BEFORE IT LIFTS UP TO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A RIDGE BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY. THIS WOULD ONCE AGAIN
BRING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, FOCUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK OVER
SOUTH FACING AREAS. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DEPICT A STRONGER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT APPEARS
TO HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE, AND A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING IT. THE FRONT COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE IN
PLACE AS IT IS STILL A WEEK AWAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT AT MOST TERMINALS BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. LAND AND SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
MARINE
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK, KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THE BACKGROUND
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR MAUI AND BIG ISLAND
WATERS, AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A FRONT COULD
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD NORTH
NORTHWEST (330-340 DEGREE) SWELL MOVES INTO THE ISLANDS. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW HAWAII OFFSHORE BUOY 51001
SHOW THAT SWELL HEIGHT HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE,
AT AROUND 8 TO 9 FEET AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY EASE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
A LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK FROM A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
A LARGE AREA OF GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW, AND CURRENTLY FOCUSED AT THE ISLANDS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 290 AND
320 DEGREES. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THURSDAY. IT COULD BECOME A LONG DURATION EVENT, WITH A PEAK
CENTERED AROUND THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. SURF HEIGHTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN EXCEED WARNING LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOCAL WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY AND A LACK OF TRADE WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE STATE.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL GENERALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS A BACKGROUND, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MAINTAINS SOME TINY
SURF. THIS BACKGROUND SWELL WILL SLOWLY EASE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...PECHACEK
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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