869
FXHW60 PHFO 140137
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
337 PM HST TUE OCT 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BREEZY LEVELS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING AROUND THE STATE DISSIPATES
AND A NEW SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT LIMITED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SLIGHTLY WETTER
TRADEWIND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A DRIER TRADEWIND PATTERN MAY DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LIMITED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE KONA SLOPES. STARTING TONIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE, WHILE MID
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO LIMIT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING TRADEWINDS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO MORE
TYPICALLY BREEZY LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH SETTLES NORTH OF THE STATE. DURING THE THIS TIME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE TRADEWIND PATTERN
WHILE PASSING BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW FOCUSES LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE FRIDAY JUST AS AN
AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES. COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS COULD MAKE FOR SOME BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE STATE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THERE COULD BE AN OVER ALL DRYING
TREND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NO AIRMET'S ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND EAST, COUPLED WITH THE HIGH TO THE FAR
NORTHEAST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGHS WEAKEN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, AND TRADES
WILL STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH THURSDAY. WINDS MAY
STRENGTHEN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) LEVELS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL WINDIER WATERS NEAR MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW,
HOLDING SURF NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES, BEFORE DECLINING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY LATE
FRIDAY, A MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH- NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND ONCE
AGAIN HELP BRING SURF TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL KEEP SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL HELP PRODUCE SURF NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY
AS SMALL WIND WAVES AND TINY EAST SWELL PERSIST. CHOPPY SURF WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO TYPICAL BREEZY
LEVELS BY THURSDAY. DRY AIR WILL KEEP RH LEVELS NEAR- CRITICAL
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER DRYING TRENDS BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. INVERSION HEIGHTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5,000 TO 6,000 FT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ALMANZA
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...M BALLARD
FIRE WEATHER...ALMANZA
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