777
FXHW60 PHFO 040135
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
335 PM HST TUE FEB 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A VERY WINDY AND MUCH WETTER PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM HST TUE FEB 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. QUIESCENT CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING OUT OF LIHUE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS OVER THE
ISLANDS TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
AXIS WILL ADVANCE OVER THE ISLANDS CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND
VEER AROUND THE COMPASS FROM NW THIS MORNING TO LIGHT TRADES ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY,
INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT SW FLOW POTENTIALLY DRIVES A COUPLE WAVES
OF BENIGN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT IN THE SEQUENCE IS
MODELED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY
EVENING. INITIAL MOISTURE DEPTH ALONG THE FRONT IS MODELED TO BE
RATHER DEEP, BUT ALSO APPEARS TENUOUS AT TIMES GIVEN THE MOISTURE
BAND'S ENCOUNTER WITH THE RESIDENT DRY, STABLE, AND GENERALLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. SUSPECT MOISTURE DEPTH AROUND 10-12KFT IS MOST
LIKELY WITH A COUPLE POCKETS OF DEEPER CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT EASES TOWARD OAHU. IN TYPICAL FASHION, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EMERGING RIGHT THAT IS POISED TO REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL IN TURN
ACTIVATE AND DEEPEN THE EXISTING FRONT LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED RAINFALL. AT THE SAME TIME, BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE TUNE OF 1035+MB ALONG 30N WILL DRIVE A STRONG
TRADE WIND PATTERN THAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500MB TEMPS ON THE
ORDER OF -15C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A A
CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHEN
THE FRONT IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER, AS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
REACH OR EXCEED 7.5C/KM IN THE VICINITY OF KAUAI. HOWEVER, LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS AROUND 65F) MAY PROVE TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDER. FINALLY, STRONG CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME STRONGLY CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
TRADES STRENGTHEN ALONG/BEHIND IT AGAINST IMPINGING EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL SERVE AS AN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM TO ORGANIZE
HEAVY RAIN, MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KAUAI AND MAUI, AND
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW, BUT A FLOOD THREAT MAY YET EMERGE
IF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ARE ABLE TO ANCHOR ALONG CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND TRAIN OVER A CERTAIN AREA.
TRADE WINDS RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI
COUNTY (BUT POTENTIALLY INCLUDING MAUI COUNTY) WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH LOCAL ACCELERATION ZONES. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL TEND TO DAMPEN DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL,
BUT WITH 925MB WINDS PUSHING 50KTS AT TIMES, THIS WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT ELEMENT TO MONITOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. FORCING DIMINISHES AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE RETREATING UPPER LOW AND LOSS OF JET SUPPORT. THE
EVENT SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 334 PM HST TUE FEB 3 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL BEHIND THIS MORNING'S FRONTAL PASSAGE.
VFR AND SCANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS MODERATE NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY VEER TO LIGHT
EASTERLY TRADES BY TOMORROW.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LEE TURB IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 PM HST TUE FEB 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, A FRONT IS DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BRIEFLY EASE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
SPEEDS AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEXT FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS FILLING IN OVER MOST
HAWAIIAN WATERS FOLLOWING THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT THE LONG ADVERTISED EXTRA-
LARGE, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SWELL IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ISLANDS, RESULTING IN WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES. RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM WAIMEA AND
HANALEI ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 18 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON, MOST OF WHICH IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE NORTHWEST
SWELL ENERGY WITHIN THE 14 TO 16 SECOND BAND. THE EXTRA-LARGE TO
GIANT SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG EXPOSED COASTS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH HEIGHTS WELL
ABOVE WARNING LEVELS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY THURSDAY. OVERWASH ONTO VULNERABLE
LOW-LYING ROADWAYS AND PROPERTIES THAT ARE DIRECTLY EXPOSED TO
SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. FOR NOW, A HIGH SURF
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI, AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS WELL ABOVE 10
FEET, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXPOSED
HAWAIIAN WATERS AS WELL.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL POTENTIALLY RETURN
TO WARNING LEVELS FOR EXPOSED COASTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY DUE TO A NEW NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING, GENERATED FROM A
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES COULD QUICKLY RISE AND BECOME ROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG TO GALE- FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS FILL IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI
SOUTHWEST-KOHALA-KONA-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-
BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...M BALLARD/JVC
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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