044
FXHW60 PHFO 140633
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
833 PM HST SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
FOR LATE THIS EVENING, ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
LIMITED TO INTERIOR REGIONS AND ALONG MOUNTAIN SLOPES. EXPECT A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AND AN AREA OF MARGINALLY ENHANCED
MOISTURE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA- BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED MAINLY INTERIOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
IR SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS EVENING DEPICTED AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTS OF MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER CAN ALSO
BE NOTED WELL NORTHEAST, UPSTREAM, OF THE ISLANDS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AND TRADES GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, EXPECT A CONTINUED
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI, LANAI,
AND MOLOKAI AS THE MOISTURE PUSHES ASHORE AND LIFTS AGAINST THE
TERRAIN. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS BATCH AND
MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD AND REACHING OAHU BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WOULD BRING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS FOR OAHU'S WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY AND REFINE
ITS LOCATION ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. KAUAI
AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY IN THE SHORT
TERM, OUT OF THE MAIN ENHANCED MOISTURE BAND.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM HST SAT JUN 13 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAINLY OVER MAUI AS OF 3 PM HST, WITH A BIT
LESS CLOUDINESS THAN USUAL IN MOST WINDWARD AREAS. WINDS WERE
LIGHT, AVERAGING 5 TO 15 MPH. SEA BREEZES HAD DEVELOPED ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF MOST ISLANDS.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS LEADING TO HEALTHY SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST LEEWARD AREAS, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY AS TRADE WINDS PICK BACK UP A BIT. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ENHANCING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AND REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO A RETURN OF SEA BREEZES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN LEEWARD AREAS ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AFTER
MONDAY, SO THAT'S WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP.
AVIATION
MODERATE AND RATHER STABLE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAUI COUNTY, WHERE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE MAY SPREAD TO
WINDWARD OAHU ON SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR SLOPES OVER LEEWARD TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (200 DEGREE) SWELL WILL BUILD
TONIGHT AND PEAK SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECLINING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NEAR SHORE BUOYS,
INCLUDING LANAI AND BARBER'S POINT, SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING
THIS EVENING WITH A DOMINANT 22 SECOND PERIOD. EXPECT THE SWELL
TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURF HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH SURF
HEIGHTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURF COULD
ALSO REACH WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (ADVISORY ALONG
WEST FACING SHORES), BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER OVER 24 HOURS
OUT FROM THE FORECAST PEAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUOYS AND
FUTURE GUIDANCE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING.
THIS SWELL WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES WHICH
WILL ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP ON TOP OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THE MONTHLY PEAK TIDES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE PEAK SWELL PASSES, SOUTH
SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A SERIES OF
CONTINUED OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
VERY LITTLE SWELL ENERGY IS ARRIVING ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES,
KEEPING SURF TINY TO FLAT. A SMALL BUMP IN SURF IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL AND A
SMALLER NORTH SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT IS HELD UP TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF HAWAII. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN
SMALL AS A RESULT.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE. PEAK MONTHLY HIGH TIDES
COMBINED WITH WATER LEVELS THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREDICTED
WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AROUND THE DAILY PEAK TIDE,
WHICH WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS,
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WHILE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG ALL SHORELINES, THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL, KING TIDES AND THE DAILY HIGH TIDE WILL MAKE LOW-LYING
COASTAL AREAS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST SHORES SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KIPAHULU-KOHALA-KONA-LANAI
LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-
SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-WAIANAE COAST.
UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...QUESADA
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