166
FXHW60 PHFO 050637
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
837 PM HST WED FEB 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WINDS COME AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
AND DIRECT HIGHER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE PATTERN WILL
UNDERGO A MORE WINDY AND WET CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT
TRAVELS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
WILL DIG DOWN WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BE
THE IMPETUS TO MORE FREQUENT RAIN THAT MAY BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY,
STRONG WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM HST WED FEB 4 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, MAINTAINING LIGHT AND PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING TOWARD THE
STATE, REACHING KAUAI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PROCEEDING THROUGH MOST
OF THE ISLANDS BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER MAUI COUNTY. AS
THIS FRONT ARRIVES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN,
AND STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, CARRYING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. APART FROM FRESHENING THE NEAR TERM WINDS AND
HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH THE LATEST TRENDS, NO AMENDMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM HST WED FEB 4 2026
IT WAS ONE OF THOSE SOMEWHAT RARE BEAUTIFUL, MAINLY CLEAR SKY DAYS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LONE
EXCEPTION WAS BIG ISLAND WHERE WARMTH-OF-THE-DAY CLOUD BUILD UP
OCCURRED ALONG THE SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA. EARLY DAY
LAND BREEZES HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO SEA BREEZES WITH THE OVERALL
BACKGROUND FLOW VEERING EAST SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS
OVERHEAD. VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY-WISE AS DEW POINTS RANGE IN
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO MODIFY TOMORROW AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE UPON
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN APPROACHING, SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM
THE WEST WILL REACH THE WESTERN WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE EVER-STRENGHTENING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
OAHU AND KAUAI. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A VEHICLE FOR DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY AS DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT'S WIND SHIFT.
THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH INTO A BROAD CUT-
OFF LOW IN ITS BASE WEST SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI BY LATE
WEEKEND HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE MORE STATEWIDE
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL STALL OR SEVERELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LOWER LEVEL SURFACE BOUNDARY. BACKING HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLIES NORTH OF THE FRONT AND WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT.
MORE RICH MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED UP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WEST
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND COOL MID TO UPPER LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY
(2-4 DEG C AT 700 MB, LOW TO MID NEGATIVE TEENS AT 500 MB).
STABILITY AND ANY WARM NOSE INVERSION WILL ERODE AND HIGH MOISTURE
OF GREATER THAN 90% WILL FILL THE COLUMN TO JET LEVEL. DECREASING
STABILITY AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
PUMPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SIGNALS HIGH RAINFALL AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ZONES OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND.
THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS, SUCH AS FAVORABLE JET STREAM DYNAMICS
AND A HIGH THETA E GRADIENT NEAR MAUI AND BIG ISLAND SUNDAY THAT
MAY BE THE SMOKE BEFORE THE FIRE THAT THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE
COULD EXPERIENCE ROUNDS OF HEAVY, TRAINING RAINFALL ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY INDUCE PERIODIC FLOODING.
A WEEKEND FLOODING SITUATION COULD TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A WIND
THREAT AS STRONG TRADES BEAR DOWN ON THE STATE FROM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A WEAKENED
AND NORTHEAST-EXITING FRONT CREATES A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
PRESSING DOWN ON HAWAII. EARLY WEEK RAIN WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
EAST WINDS SHORTLY THEREAFTER MAY BE A RECIPE FOR MORE TREE FALL
AND VEGETATION DAMAGE THAT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES.
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE NWP DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MAINTAINS FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT BACK TO
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH AS IT PARADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TRENDING DOWN DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. NOT
TOTALLY DRY THOUGH AS FREQUENT, ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY, RIDES IN WITHIN STRONG TRADE FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 355 PM HST WED FEB 4 2026
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT OFFSHORE LAND
BREEZES TONIGHT AMIDST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SCANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. VFR AREAWIDE. EMERGING SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
DURING THURSDAY BRINGING LOWER VFR CIGS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
PASSING/ISOLATED LEEWARD SHOWERS, MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF
OAHU.
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM HST WED FEB 4 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND
IT LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCEAN CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY RESPOND AND BECOME ROUGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND SEAS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS, A WET PATTERN
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
THE EXTRA-LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
ISLANDS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO IS BEGINNING TO DECLINE, BUT IT
IS STILL PRODUCING WARNING-LEVEL SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARSHORE BUOYS AT
HANALEI, WAIMEA, AND PAUWELA ALL SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 13 TO
15 FEET, MOST OF WHICH IS FROM THE NORTHWEST SWELL ENERGY WITH
PERIODS IN THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE. GIVEN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE, THE HIGH SURF WARNING FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI, AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR IMPACTED SHORES THURSDAY AS THE SWELL
CONTINUES TO DECLINE. HEIGHTS WILL DIP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN RETURN TO WARNING
LEVELS FOR EXPOSED COASTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION TO
THE SURF, SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WELL FOR WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES COULD QUICKLY RISE AND BECOME ROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY NEARING THE WARNING LEVEL
DURING THE PEAK BY MONDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
REMAIN SMALL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI
SOUTHWEST-KOHALA-KONA-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI WINDWARD
WEST-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-NIIHAU-OAHU
NORTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-
BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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