229
FXHW60 PHFO 261403
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
403 AM HST WED AUG 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STABLE SUMMERTIME TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS. A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OF PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW A STRONG
TRADEWIND INVERSION BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FT, WHICH WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. TODAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS
THE STATE WITH MAINLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OVER THE SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT DECREASE OF WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT
GENERALLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT MODERATE TO BREEZY SPEEDS. WHILE
A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME PASSING
SHOWERS RETURN OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT, BUT GENERALLY
A SLIGHT UPTICK OF SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND, MAINLY DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOOKING INTO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (NHC) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC THAT COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO A WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC SOME TIME NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF
HAWAII WILL BE IMPACTED, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS,
ESPECIALLY THE AREA BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CIGS AND SHRA
POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES. MVFR CONDS IN HEAVIER
SHRA OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB LEE OF TERRAIN
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST AS A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN TODAY AND PEAK
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SWELL COULD PUSH SURF TOWARDS ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS BEFORE SLOWLY FADING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY DUE TO
PERSISTENT TRADE WIND SWELL.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY TO FLAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 356 AM HST WED AUG 26 2026
A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN TODAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO
DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER 40S FOR SELECT LEEWARD AREAS. WHILE A
BREEZY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO THE FUELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
AFTER TODAY, WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TRADE
WIND PATTERN WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR
THE DRIER LEEWARD AREAS. A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TRADE WIND PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...THOMAS
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