762
FXHW60 PHFO 281937
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
937 AM HST MON SEP 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NOLO PASSES TO THE WEST WITH RAIN
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE STORM ENCROACHING
KAUAI AND OAHU. NOLO MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND
WITH TRADES FILLING IN.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. A BAND OF SHOWERY CUMULUS
CLOUDS IS RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY IMPACT WINDWARD KAUAI AND OAHU
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MAJOR HURRICANE NOLO (CAT. 4) IS AROUND 420 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU THIS MORNING AS HAS MADE IT'S TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. MAIN
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE BREEZY, BUT WEAKENING WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOLO AND
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE SOUTHWEST SWELL
DIRECTED TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. NOLO WILL WEAKEN DOWN TO A CAT. 1
HURRICANE AND STALL AROUND 250 TO 300 MILES WEST OF KAUAI ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE ON A MORE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE STATE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AS NOLO
GAINS LATITUDE, THEN CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAIN BANDS ALONG NOLO'S EASTERN FLANK WILL SPREAD
OUT ENOUGH TO LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU, AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DIRECTS SHOWERS OVER
POPULATED AREAS OF BOTH ISLANDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING AMOUNTS
AND LENGTHS OF TIME THAT THE BANDS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE, AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON NOLO'S EVENTUAL PATH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN BRINGING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AGAIN.
AVIATION
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, BUT
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS HURRICANE NOLO MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE STATE. ANY TRADE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS
EXTENDING BEYOND THOSE AREAS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
9,000 FEET OVER AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS
AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MID- WEEK.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS AND LARGE, ROUGH SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND HURRICANE NOLO, SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MOVES FARTHER WEST. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAALAEA BAY) HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
BEYOND THAT POINT, TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST WATERS. HIGHER SEAS AND STRONG WINDS MAY
PERSIST FOR FAVORED CHANNELS AND WATERS NEAR KAUAI, WHERE THE
CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST HAS NOLO TRACKING
AROUND 230 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND BACK
MORE EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS NOLO MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS.
A MIX OF LONG TO MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL AND BUILDING
SHORT TO MEDIUM SOUTH SWELL FROM A POWERFUL HURRICANE NOLO NOW
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL BRING ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF TO SOUTH FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. THE HURRICANE-GENERATED SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST, AS NOLO TRACKS NORTHWEST ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO THE ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS
THIS SWELL GRADUALLY DECREASING, AND IN PARTICULAR, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, NOLO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. BY MID-WEEK, THESE SWELLS WILL
ORIGINATE FROM THE WEST AND BE DIMINISHING AS THE HURRICANE WILL BE
WEAKER AND IT BEGINS TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS
DIMINISH. HOWEVER, SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT EAST
PACIFIC HURRICANES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SURF DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ON NORTH FACING SHORES, A SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD SWELL WILL
FADE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME WRAPPING WEST SWELL FROM HURRICANE NOLO
IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND STABLE WITH BREEZY EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THROUGH TODAY, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SIDES OF NOLO WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF THE STATE. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STATEWIDE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WINDS WEAKEN AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KOHALA-
KAUAI SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
SOUTH-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY-
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
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