882
FXHW60 PHFO 270253 AAA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
453 PM HST SUN JUL 26 2026
UPDATE
MINOR ZONE FORECAST UPDATE FOR WINDS ACCOUNT FOR NEW NHC FORECAST
FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO.
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS
IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. HURRICANE FAUSTO REMAINS
ON TRACK TO PASS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. A DRIER AND BREEZY TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD
AS FAUSTO DRIFTS WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHWEST OF HAWAII WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. INCOMING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
EAST OF THE STATE HURRICANE FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MARCH WEST
NORTHWEST. FAUSTO REMAINS ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE TRACK, KEEPING THE
CENTER OF THE STORM AND THE HIGHEST IMPACTS PASSING NORTH OF THE
STATE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FAUSTO GROWS MORE
UNFAVORABLE ON APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS AND WE EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE ARRIVAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THAT SAID, WE REMAIN CAUTIOUS AT THIS STAGE THAT
EVEN SUBTLE SOUTHERN SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OR DELAYED WEAKENING
TRENDS MAY STILL PRODUCE CHANGES TO OUR ISLAND BY ISLAND IMPACTS.
WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE PUBLIC TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS
PASSING STORM SYSTEM AS WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER TIME.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FAUSTO IMPACTS...HIGH SURF POSSIBLY ABOVE WARNING
THRESHOLDS FOR EAST FACING SHORES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING. LESSER CONFIDENCE IMPACTS INCLUDE...STRONG WINDS TO
AROUND 40 MPH MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN THREATS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT TO REVIEW YOUR FAMILY HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
PLANS, AND ENSURE EVERY HOUSEHOLD HAS AT LEAST A 14 DAY SUPPLY OF
FOOD AND WATER AVAILABLE IF NEEDED DURING THIS YEARS ACTIVE HURRICANE
SEASON.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE BREEZY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL FILL IN
ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AS FAUSTO CONTINUES TO
JOURNEY WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST, BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A
NOTCH AND BACK TOWARDS A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN WITH THE BREEZY TRADES
AND WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB DOWNWIND OF
ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST TODAY THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NNE AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO HURRICANE FAUSTO PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
TRADES WILL THEN RAMP BACK UP TO FRESH AND STRONG LEVELS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS FAUSTO CONTINUES OFF TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE STATE WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
THE CURRENT LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MODERATE TO LARGE SURF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECLINING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL SOUTH FACING SHORES.
CURRENTLY EAST FACING SHORES DUE TO THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUGH CHOPPY SURF. ADDITIONALLY,
NEARSHORE BUOYS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLANDS ALL HAVE BEGUN
TO SHOW THE LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEW EASTERLY SWELL.
THIS MODERATE LONG PERIOD ENERGY HAS PROMOTED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 10
FEET FOR EFFECTED WINDWARD WATERS. ENERGY FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND POTENTIALLY REACH HIGH SURF WARNING
LEVELS BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, EAST SHORE SURF WILL TREND BACK
UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RISING TRADE
WIND SWELL AND A NEW LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE MOVING IN.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED DURING THE PEAK OF THE
LARGE SURF FOR VULNERABLE LOW-LYING COASTAL ROADWAYS, DOCKS, BOAT
RAMPS, AND OTHER COASTAL INFRASTRUCTURE EXPOSED TO THE LARGE EAST
SWELL TOO.
SURF ALONG N SHORES REMAINS FLAT TO TINY TODAY. SOME INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AS FAUSTO OR ITS REMNANTS PASS NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTH SHORE SURF RETURNING TO TYPICAL FLAT TO
TINY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KONA-KAUAI
SOUTH-EAST HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-MOLOKAI LEEWARD
SOUTH-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTH
MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR OLOMANA-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI EAST-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KIPAHULU-BIG ISLAND EAST-
BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...KINO
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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