644
FXHW60 PHFO 080632
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST SAT FEB 7 2026
UPDATE
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR MAUI THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE HAMAKUA
COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN
REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF HONOKAA OVER A THREE HOUR TIME PERIOD.
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE PRODUCED BY SLOW MOVING TERRAIN
ANCHORED STORM CELLS, HEIGHTENING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR THE BIG ISLAND TO
COVER THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
ELSEWHERE, FAST MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PASS THROUGH THE ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF REACHING UP
INTO HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PULLING DOWN STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH ARE ALREADY
BEING REPORTED IN SOME OF THE WINDIER AREAS THIS EVENING. STRONGER
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM NORTH OF THE STATE STRENGTHENS AND THE FRONTAL BAND OVER
THE ISLANDS DISSIPATES. THE MAIN WEATHER THREATS REMAIN
STRENGTHENING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAMPING UP FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL ISLANDS THIS EVENING, THIS ADVISORY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAME AREAS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS ON THE BIG ISLAND FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HEAVY RAIN, THUNDERSTORM AND FLOODING THREATS WILL SLOWLY EASE
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND THREATS EASING UP FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER STRONG AND BREEZY TRADE
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE JUST BELOW OUR ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR MAUI THIS EVENING. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT, WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH
FLOODING, AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY. BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH THE TRADES THEN BECOMING VERY WINDY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH BREEZY AND
SHOWERY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 328 PM HST SAT FEB 7 2026/
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, NORTH- AND EAST-FACING AREAS OF KAUAI,
OAHU, AND MOLOKAI HAVE GENERALLY RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, MUCH OF WHICH FELL AS THE FRONT PASSED THROUGH. RAINFALL
RATES HAVE MOSTLY REMAINED MANAGEABLE, LIMITING FLOODING IMPACTS
OVERALL. ONE EXCEPTION OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY OVER MOLOKAI, WHERE
HIGHER RATES PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY. SINCE THEN, RAINFALL RATES
HAVE EASED SOMEWHAT, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BROADER STRATIFORM SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RECENTLY,
HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH KOHALA DISTRICT OF
THE BIG ISLAND, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD ADVISORY THERE
AS WELL.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL AND
DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING, MAKING THE
FLOODING THREAT LOCATIONS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THIS AXIS OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THEN AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES, THE MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS THE STATE, MAKING IT HARDER TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDWARD AREAS ANYWHERE BETWEEN OAHU AND THE BIG
ISLAND BEING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY, MAKING WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE FLOODING THREAT
REMAINS STATEWIDE AND THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL ISLANDS. WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME A
CONCERN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS INTO A LOW
WEST OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND WARNING
LEVEL GUSTS (60+ MPH) ACROSS MAINLY LEEWARD DOWNSLOPING AREAS OR
IN SHOWERS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE POWER OUTAGES, DOWNED
TREES (ESPECIALLY WITH SATURATED SOILS), AND DIFFICULTY TRAVELING
IN HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FINALLY, WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS THIS WEEKEND. AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE ISLAND, AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP BELOW FREEZING, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AT THE SUMMITS. AS A RESULT, A WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND
MAUNA LOA FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT SHOWERY AND BREEZY TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
AVIATION...
UPDATE ISSUED 832 PM HST SAT FEB 7 2026
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. SHRA AND LOW CIGS ARE CAUSING MVFR AND
ISOL IFR CONDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS SOME
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WITH INCREASING WINDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR ALL ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR FOR MOD TURB ACROSS ALL ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT WATERS DUE TO THE WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE STATE. MOD
TURB MAY OCCUR ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS UP TO FL320.
LIGHT ICING IS EXPECTED IN CLOUD LAYER 120-FL230 FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI.
MARINE...
UPDATE ISSUED 832 PM HST SAT FEB 7 2026
FRESH TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY. A FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MAUI COUNTY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE FRONT IS DRIVING THESE
STRONG NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FEATURE,
WHILE WEAKER EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WEST
OF MAUI COUNTY AND STRONG WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY, CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY TIGHTEN
BRINGING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL COASTAL WATER ZONES. IN
ADDITION, EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SOME ON TUESDAY, BUT TRADE WILL
REMAIN IN THE STRONG RANGE WITH SOME NEAR GALES OVER THE WINDIER
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL (295-310 DEGREES) WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY (HSA) IS IN EFFECT FOR EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES FROM KAUAI TO MAUI, AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. SURF ON ALL ISLANDS WILL DECLINE BELOW
HSA THRESHOLDS AS SMALL TO MODERATE NORTH- NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SWELLS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
LARGE AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS
STRENGTHEN. EAST SHORE SURF SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE HSA THRESHOLD
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURF TO REACH THE HIGH SURF
WARNING (HSW) LEVEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY ON KAUAI AND OAHU. LARGE
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL WITH SOME
SMALL BACKGROUND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ENERGY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SELECT SOUTHERN EXPOSURES EXPOSED TO THE
WIND SWELL WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LARGER WAVES AS WELL.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI, AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS.
UPDATE...BOHLIN
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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