858
FXHW60 PHFO 220725
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
925 PM HST SAT FEB 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF STATEWIDE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITIES FOR RETURN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER MID WEEK CONDITIONS
UNDER LIGHT TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM HST SAT FEB 21 2026
STATEWIDE RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTION OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN MAUI THIS
EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER HANA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH 11 PM AS INTENSE RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS
TO 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY CAUSING FLOODING IN HANA,
KIPAHULU AND HAMOA THIS EVENING. STATEWIDE, SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE
A QUIETER DAY THAN TODAY BUT THERE ARE STILL DECENT CHANCES FOR
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAIN
IN MANY SATURATED WINDWARD COMMUNITIES TO PRODUCE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF SWOLLEN STREAMS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ANCHORED WITHIN HIGHER TERRAIN IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY. ENERGY MOVING INTO THE LINGERING TROUGH
OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE AREAWIDE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EPISODES. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING FROM MAUI COUNTY
WESTWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST SAT FEB 21 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE STATE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VIGOROUS TROUGH COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT LED TO SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN
RANGE EARLIER TODAY. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL REPORTS OF OVER 21
INCHES IN 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN LULUKU AS WELL AS OVER 15
INCHES IN 12 HOURS OVER MOANALUA AND POAMOHO. SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR HAS DECREASED THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING,
BUT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OAHU IS
OUT THROUGH 6 PM TODAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR KAUAI, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD GENERALLY BE
DECREASING THIS EVENING AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE
WHETHER OR NOT THE FLOOD WATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED.
FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
OVER OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING SOME IMPROVED WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN SELECT
WINDWARD AREAS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED QUITE A BIT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT STARTING WITH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE REST OF THE STATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES
RETURNING DURING THIS TIME (WHICH IS A DAY EARLIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST) SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND WET TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF
DRIER WEATHER.
MEANWHILE ON THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE WINTRY MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT,
BUT SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS AND FREEZING FOG COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST SAT FEB 21 2026
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS DECREASE IN
INTENSITY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER, AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE. WINDS WILL BE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY WEAK TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. TRADES WILL RETURN MONDAY IN THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE, MONDAY NIGHT TO MAUI COUNTY, AND TUESDAY ON THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU, MOLOKAI, AND MAUI.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS FOR TURBULENCE BETWEEN
10KFT AND 30KFT.
AIRMET ZULU IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 12KFT TO FL240.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM HST SAT FEB 21 2026
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH OVERNIGHT WITH LAND
BREEZES AND DAYTIME SEA BREEZES, BEGINNING TONIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DROP ALONG WITH SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. EXPECT
A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST-FACING SHORES WILL QUICKLY
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A LONG-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL FROM A BROAD STORM-FORCE LOW EVOLVES OFF THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF NORTHERLY GALES
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND A 1048 MB BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE HEAD OF THE FETCH REACHING LESS THAN 1,000 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM THE STATE. HEIGHTS WILL REACH WARNING LEVELS FOR EXPOSED
NORTH- AND EAST-FACING SHORES BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IS ANTICIPATED BY MIDWEEK,
ADDITIONAL PULSES FROM THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL KEEP SURF ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR EAST-FACING SHORES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS SWELL DIRECTION WILL BRING SURF INTO SOME TYPICALLY PROTECTED
AREAS SUCH AS KUA BAY, WEST MAUI, AND EXPOSED SHORES OF LANAI.
OTHER IMPACTS FROM THIS NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL DIRECTION COULD
INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT EROSION ALONG SOME COASTS AND ACCRETION AT
OTHER LOCATIONS AS SAND SHIFTS OPPOSITE THE TYPICAL SWELL
DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERWASH ALONG VULNERABLE SECTIONS OF COASTLINE AND ROADWAYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
MARINERS CAN ALSO ANTICIPATE HARBOR SURGES AT KAHULUI AND HILO.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED WEST-FACING SHORES WILL RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES FROM A RECENT BROAD STORM-
FORCE LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL OAHU-EAST HONOLULU-
EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-
KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KOOLAU LEEWARD-KOOLAU WINDWARD-
NIIHAU-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-WAIANAE COAST-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS.
UPDATE...BLOOD
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...PARKER
MARINE...FOSTER
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