502
FXHW60 PHFO 110157
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 PM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT TO
MODERATE BACKGROUND TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, ALLOWING SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP IN SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS. A BRIEF INCREASE IN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE A
RETURN TO RELATIVELY DRY TRADES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON, RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODERATE BACKGROUND WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRODUCE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. ALSO OF NOTE, STUBBORN CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL WINDWARD
ZONES. THESE WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VERY FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS, WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE STATE
EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO LINGER TO THE NW OF THE STATE,
THOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED AND DRIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE WILL CONTINUE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS FOR KAUAI AND
NIIHAU THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THESE WILL DECREASE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL
ARE EXPECTED STATEWIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE,
PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND, BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY
DRY TRADES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA WILL
BE MOST COMMON AT NIGHT, WITH SOME LEEWARD CLOUD BUILDUPS IN
SHELTERED AREAS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE BACKGROUND
TRADE WINDS. TRADES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST AND WEST FACING COASTS AND SLOPES OF KAUAI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THESE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN
COMPLETELY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BY SOMETIME THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND LOWER SLOPES
OF THE KONA DISTRICTS, ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN AND AROUND THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE TRADES.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEST FACING COASTS AND SLOPES OF KAUAI, ALONG WITH
THE STRETCH OF LOWER SLOPES FROM SOUTH POINT TO KAILUA-KONA AND
WINDWARD AREAS ON THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH
WEAKER WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS A
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER WEST OF THE AREA. TRADE WINDS THEN
DECREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS.
STRENGTHENING TRADES ARE THEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL HAS BEEN FILLING IN TODAY AND WILL PEAK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
AND WEST- FACING SHORES, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL DECLINE SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL DECLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE SOURCE LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SMALL SURF
ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES TO GRADUALLY FADE TODAY. A SMALLER
LONG- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PROLONG SMALL SURF THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT WILL FADE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL,
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND
PEAK TUESDAY, BOOSTING NORTH SHORE SURF BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS. A
MODERATE NORTH- NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A PROJECTED LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC. DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE ON
SIZE IS LOW.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS LOCAL WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS EACH DAY. SMALL,
MODERATE-PERIOD WEST AND EAST SWELLS GENERATED BY MULTIPLE PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 354 PM HST SAT OCT 10 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING RH VALUES DOWN TO NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES ON MONDAY ON PART OF THE BIG ISLAND, INCLUDING NEAR KONA.
WITH THAT SAID, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
AROUND 5500-6500 FEET.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...TSAMOUS
FIRE...VAUGHAN
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