629
FXHW60 PHFO 240208 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
408 PM HST THU JUL 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
DELIVER PERIODIC SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FAUSTO (OR ITS REMNANTS) MAY IMPACT THE STATE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE
STATE ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
FAR NORTH WILL DRIVE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN
DROP A NOTCH TO MODERATE TO BREEZY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES FARTHER TO THE WEST. WITH DEEP RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE
REGION, A SOMEWHAT DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPRESSED BY
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, MINOR UPTICKS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WHEN MINOR BATCHES OF
MOISTURE FILTER ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT WEEK, WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FAUSTO. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD AND ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND,
WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR.
AT THIS TIME, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM WIND OR RAINFALL ON HAWAII, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN EAST-FACING SHORES RECEIVING A DECENT SWELL LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES INTO FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS
IN PLACE FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
A RESULT. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMET TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
BRING PASSING MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
WITH NEAR GALES POSSIBLE FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SOME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE
TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN A NOTCH THIS WEEKEND AND MAY LEAD TO A
REDUCTION IN AREA FOR THE SCA BEYOND FRIDAY. TRENDS IN THE
STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOME LESS CLEAR
AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF A WEAKENING HURRICANE FAUSTO
(FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND) IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS FORECAST TO PEAK TONIGHT,
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS IT
BEGINS TO TREND DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SURF
BRIEFLY FALLS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH SURF
BACK UP TO ADVISORY LEVEL. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS A BRIEF
BREAK OR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS MAINTAINED, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THE HSA TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THIS NEXT
SOUTHERLY PULSE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT SHORTER PERIOD AND LOWER
ENERGY THAN THE LAST. THE SOUTH SWELL WILL THEN SLOWLY DECLINE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY, SUPPORTED
BY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD
EAST SWELL GENERATED BY FORMER TC ELIDA. THE LATTER SWELL FADES
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE TRADE WIND SWELL CONTINUES. THIS WEEKEND, LARGER
SURF GENERATED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO IS POSSIBLE AND COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN AT FLAT TO TINY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTH-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-EAST HONOLULU-EWA PLAIN-HONOLULU METRO-
KAHOOLAWE-KAUAI SOUTH-KAUAI SOUTHWEST-KONA-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI
SOUTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI
LEEWARD SOUTH-NIIHAU-SOUTH HALEAKALA-SOUTH MAUI/UPCOUNTRY-
WAIANAE COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...M BALLARD
MARINE...QUESADA
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