909
FXHW60 PHFO 291406 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 AM HST SAT AUG 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE NEXT WEEK COULD INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL REMAINS FAR SE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TRACK, TIMING, AND INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
THE EARLY MORNING 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOWED A
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INVERSION AT AROUND 6500-8500 FEET. THIS,
COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE SEEN ON REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN BREEZY TRADES, HAS RESULTED IN AN UPTICK
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SEVERAL WINDWARD
LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, PICKED UP
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND ONE INCH SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING.
A DRIER TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RESUME TODAY AS MID- AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR THE AREA AND THE BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT EXITS THE REGION. BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
HAVE MENTIONED, AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
COULD INCREASE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI CONTINUES TO TRACK TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL, WHICH AS OF THE 11 PM HST ADVISORY WAS LOCATED ABOUT
1430 MILES ESE OF HILO, MOVING WEST AROUND 8 MPH. LOWELL IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER, AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW TROPICAL STORM KARINA (ALSO IN THE EAST PACIFIC) COULD
INFLUENCE LOWELL'S STEERING FLOW. SHOULD STEERING FLOW WEAKEN AS
DEPICTED IN SOME GLOBAL MODELS, THIS WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL
ARRIVAL TO/AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z - NOCTURNAL SHOWERS UNDER MODERATE TRADES BRINGING MOSTLY
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY, VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
PASSING SHOWERS/LOWER CIGS, HIGHEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW CIGS AND SHRA OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES
MOST AREAS AND WITH VCSH FOR THOSE TAFS.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB LEE OF TERRAIN
AND MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW DAYS.
MARINE
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL MAY MOVE INTO THE HAWAIIAN REGION
POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTH SWELL THAT PEAKED JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ON
FRIDAY, WILL SLOWLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER SOUTH
SWELL WILL INCREASE SURF HEIGHTS STARTING ON TUESDAY, PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS, THEN SLOWLY FADING INTO
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN CHOPPY IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. A
SMALL MEDIUM PERIOD EAST SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS
FILLED IN AND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL KEEP RH FROM REACHING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA ZONES DURING THIS TIME. TODAY'S INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 8000 FEET OR SO, WITH ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY
FLUCTUATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...VAUGHAN
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...VAUGHAN
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