468
FXHW60 PHFO 012000
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JUN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWERS STARTING WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY AND SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUR MORE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, I HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS
INCLUDING THE HREF AND REFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION OVER WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE STATE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALSO, AN ASHFALL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EPISODE 48 OF THE
KILAUEA ERUPTION. LOCATIONS OF THE TEPHRA FALLOUT WILL VARY TODAY
DUE TO THE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST, BUT
WINDS AT 10,000 FT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH, AND WINDS ABOVE 25,000 FT WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM HST MON JUN 1 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORT-WAVE THATS NEAR
OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SAGGING
SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITHIN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE ISLANDS, MOSTLY IMPACTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS
WITH SOME LIMITED SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
ARE IMPACTING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING OR
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ADVANCING THROUGH THE
AREA, INCREASING SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE STATE TODAY THEN EXPAND UP THE ISLAND CHAIN BY TUESDAY.
TRADES BACK NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, FOCUSING SHOWERS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA. BREEZY TRADES THEN ESTABLISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS.
SOME SPILLOVER SHOWERS INTO LEEWARD AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PULSES
OF WET WEATHER CONTINUE ACROSS THE HAWAII REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE
2000 FEET FOR OAHU, MAUI, AND BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN FL300
AND FL370 CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE DAY.
A VOLCANIC ASH SIGMET UNDER SERIES XRAY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER
THE ASH PLUME FROM KILAUEA'S MOST RECENT ERUPTION. AN ASHFALL
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND NEARBY
THE VOLCANO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM HST MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN INTO THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG CATEGORY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
WEEK AS A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE CURRENT SOUTH SWELL, WHICH PEAKED
OVER THE WEEKEND, IS SLOWLY EASING, WITH THE PEAK ENERGY DOWN
INTO THE 14-15 SECOND BAND. LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS FROM THE NEW
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL STEADILY FILL IN TODAY, LEADING TO A
BUILDING TREND BY TONIGHT.
SURF IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND LIKELY RISE ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD BY MIDWEEK AS
THE SWELL PEAKS. WHILE SOME OF THE PEAK ENERGY MAY HAVE MISSED
THE PACIOOS AMERICAN SAMOA BUOY TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD PEAK LOCALLY NEAR, OR
POSSIBLY JUST BELOW, THE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLD OF 15-FOOT
FACES ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES AROUND WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND REMAIN
UP THROUGH FRIDAY AS A PAIR OF OVERLAPPING NORTHERLY SWELLS
ARRIVE FROM A BROAD GALE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE NEAR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SEASONAL SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BY MIDWEEK AS
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS GENERATE INCREASING SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES. SURF SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ASHFALL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND EAST-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE...KINO
DISCUSSION...WALSH
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...GIBBS
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