532
FXHW60 PHFO 021333
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
333 AM HST THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY TO MODERATE
LEVELS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RESTRENGTHENING BACK
TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO BRING IT IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST NBM, BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TO MODERATE LEVELS, BUT THEN STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY, AND THAT WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ANY
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT DO GET CARRIED IN ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN IN THE LOW 70S THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY LOWER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S, WHICH WILL
MAKE IT A LITTLE LESS MUGGY. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE CARRIED INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE TRADE WIND FLOW DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. THIS COULD INCREASE
SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FOCUSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS, OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO ONGOING SHOWERS. LOOKING UPSTREAM
OF THE BIG ISLAND, THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE
DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN DUE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS TODAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY
DECLINING, BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE TYPICAL WINDY WATERS AND CHANNELS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL LINGER TODAY JUST BELOW
THE SUMMERTIME AVERAGE. THIS FADING SWELL COMBINED WITH A SERIES
OF SMALL, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SWELLS, WILL
DELIVER BELOW-AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
MODERATE, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE, BOOSTING
SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TRADE WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG. SURF ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN TINY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
MINOR UPTICK POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SMALL,
MEDIUM- PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...M BALLARD
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...WALSH
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