650
FXHW60 PHFO 020602
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
802 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, THE WINDY
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING BACK DOWN TO NORMAL LEVELS TOMORROW INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS, STAYING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE POTENTIALLY
INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2026
WINDY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR, MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE,
STRONG TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WITH 50 MPH GUSTS COULD LINGER THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF TONIGHT, THEREFORE THE HIGH WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE FELT OVER THE WINDY AREAS ALONG RIDGES, THROUGH
MOUNTAINOUS GAPS AND DOWNSLOPE MOUNTAIN AREAS. BY TOMORROW THE
TRADE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BACK DOWN TO THE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME LEVELS AND REMAIN BREEZY INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK, TRADES WILL FURTHER EASE AS TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE
WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE, DISRUPTING TRADE WIND FLOW. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE, RETURNING TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SLOPES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING JUST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. IN ADDITION AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY MOVE FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, EXPECT A
STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCASIONALLY OCCUR WITHIN
SHRA PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER
AND IMMEDIATELY S THROUGH W OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ALL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENED TRADE WINDS. EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING LOWERING CEILINGS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU'S UPPER
TERRAIN HAS AN AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS ALL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND
ALSO SEAS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10 FEET. OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN
TO TREND DOWN, THE SCA HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO JUST THE WINDIER
WATERS AND CHANNELS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE PASSING FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH WILL THEN KEEP TRADE WINDS
MORE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
AS CONSECUTIVE SMALL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MEDIUM PERIOD SWELLS
IMPACT THE SHORELINES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY THROUGH TONIGHT
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND A SMALL, MEDIUM
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE THAT
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN, SURF WILL ALSO DECLINE SLIGHTLY.
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN FLAT TO TINY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AREAS EXPOSED TO THE EASTERLY
TRADE WRAP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 326 PM HST SAT AUG 1 2026
WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME LOCATIONS
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THOUGH TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5,000 FT, WILL ALLOW GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES TO PERSIST TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO WINDWARD LOCATIONS.
WHILE THE KBDI WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THIS DRY
AND WINDY PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ABOVE THE
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPE OF RIDGES. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LEVELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STEADY INCREASE IN LOW TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALSO FILL IN
ACROSS THE STATE NEXT WEEK IF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENDS UP MOVING
CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. THIS COULD ALSO RAISE THE INVERSION AND
LOWER FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG
ISLAND NORTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-KAHOOLAWE-
KAUAI SOUTH-KOHALA-KOOLAU LEEWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAUKA-
LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI WEST-SOUTH HALEAKALA-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
UPDATE...WALSH
DISCUSSION...TSAMOUS
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...SHIGESATO
FIRE WEATHER...TSAMOUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page