621
FXHW60 PHFO 110124
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
324 PM HST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
EASE INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE RANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS,
WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. A FEW AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES FORM. TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A POCKET OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. AS DRIER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND IT DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WEAKENS. THE TRANSITION TO A
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WINDWARD TO MAUKA SHOWERS
AS LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE TRADES, AND THE ADDITION OF
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT AND BRIEF DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES
WILL TRY TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. WITH THE NEXT BAND OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
MORE MOISTURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC UPTICKS IN WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
ONWARD.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL EASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WEAKENS. A SHALLOW POCKET OF
MOISTURE MOVING WITHIN THE TRADES HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHRA ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS FROM BIG ISLAND TO OAHU, AND AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS REMAINED POSTED FOR THESE ISLANDS TODAY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS NOTED ON OAHU AND MOLOKAI, WHERE THE AIRMET MAY BE
DROPPED SOON. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI, WHERE THE AIRMET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING VFR ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
MARINE
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A FRONT PASSES FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL EASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE CATEGORY DURING THIS
TIME. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL RETURN SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGES STRENGTHENS NORTH OF
THE STATE.
CURRENTLY, A SMALL, MEDIUM-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS FADING GENERATING
SMALL, INCONSISTENT SETS ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES AND SHOULD BE
EVEN SMALLER BY THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SMALL PULSES OF SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL FILL IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY REVIVING
NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
LONG-PERIOD ENERGY FROM A STORM THAT PASSED WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW AROUND NEW ZEALAND EARLIER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FILL IN LOCALLY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE
MODELS HAVE THIS SWELL PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL DRIVE
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING LEVELS. THIS SWELL WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK MONTHLY TIDES AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUNUP AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE SLOW DECLINE OF THIS LARGE SOUTH SWELL AND A
SERIES OF MORE OVERLAPPING SOUTHERLY SWELLS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL SLOWLY DECLINE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS TRADES EASE.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL PICK UP A NOTCH NEXT WEEK AS
MORE BREEZY TRADES RETURN. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...ALMANZA
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