104
FXHW60 PHFO 150044
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
244 PM HST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF OAHU WILL HOLD ITS
POSITION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMAINS
OF THE CURRENT FRONT FUSE WITH A NEW ONE AND THEY MOVE BACK INTO
THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS NOT AS
HIGH WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM
BRINGING IT AS FAR EAST AS OAHU.
DISCUSSION
RADAR AND SATELLITE HAVE SHOWN REPEATED EPISODES OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN MOVING OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER WESTERN MOLOKAI AND EASTERN KAUAI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
JUST OVER 3 INCHES WERE RECORDED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS ON KAUAI,
WITH OVER AN INCH IN JUST THE PAST 3 HOURS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON
OAHU. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF OAHU FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH FOR
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NIIHAU/KAUAI/OAHU THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FIRST WEAKENING FRONT WILL RECEDE WESTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS A NEW FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMAINS OF THIS CURRENT SYSTEM AND
APPROACH KAUAI/NIIHAU TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT THIS NEXT FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR EAST (TO/PAST OAHU)
AS THE CURRENT ONE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE, HOWEVER. FOLKS
FROM OAHU WESTWARD SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR YET
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WARM HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER OAHU WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
RIDING UP ALONG IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
WIDESPREAD OVER OAHU DUE TO THE AT TIMES HEAVY SHOWERS. A FEW
ISOL TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. MVFR/VFR CONDS EXIST AT THE OTHER
SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF LANAI WHICH IS ALSO IFR. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.
AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR KAUAI AND MOLOKAI.
AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR IFR CONDS FOR OAHU AND LANAI.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BEHIND A FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY POSITIONED
IN THE VICINITY OF OAHU. WINDS BECOME LOCALLY FRESH OUT OF THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE S TO SSW WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ELEVATED SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WATERS.
INCOMING LARGE, MEDIUM PERIOD WNW (290-300) SWELL REGISTERED
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED AT OFFSHORE NDBC BUOYS 51101 AND 51001
THIS AFTERNOON PROMPTING AN UPWARD REVISION TO SURF VALUES FOR N
AND W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI AND OAHU AND N FACING SHORES OF MAUI
AS SWELL RAPIDLY BUILDS THIS EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SURF BRIEFLY TOUCHES THE HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLD
AS IT PEAKS OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY AND BORDERLINE NATURE
PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE SURF FORECAST
WAS LIKEWISE REVISED UPWARD FOR W FACING SHORES OF LEEWARD BIG
ISLAND WHERE THE 290-300 DEGREE TRAJECTORY IS FAVORABLE FOR
BUILDING SURF THERE BY MONDAY MORNING. A HIGH SURF WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH SWELLS WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
E FACING SHORES REMAIN TINY TO SMALL GIVEN THE LACK OF TRADE
WINDS BUT SHORELINES EXPOSED TO N SWELL ENERGY MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG S SHORES INCREASES DUE TO
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVE CHOP, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNSETTLED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE, WHILE MORE STABLE AND DRIER EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL RANGE FROM 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET TODAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-
KAUAI MOUNTAINS-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OLOMANA-CENTRAL
OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-KAUAI NORTH-KAUAI EAST-KAUAI SOUTH-EAST
HONOLULU-HONOLULU METRO-EWA PLAIN-KOOLAU WINDWARD-KOOLAU
LEEWARD.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KONA-
KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...JVC
FIRE WEATHER...PARKER
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