073
FXHW60 PHFO 091320
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
320 AM HST WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT OF THE EASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS
ENCAPSULATED WITHIN A BAND OF FAIRLY STABLE CLOUDS TODAY, LEADING
UP TO MORE TYPICAL TRADE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD, EASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT,
TRADES WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WHILE TRENDS ARE SHOWING WEAKENING, BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONGER
WINDS MAY STILL REMAIN IN WIND-PRONE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ACROSS THE SUMMITS, HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW
THIS DECREASE, AS OVERALL TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY BEGINNING TODAY.
AS TRADES WEAKEN, FIRE CONCERNS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECLINE.
EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS AND THE
LOCAL KBDI VALUE AT HONOLULU REMAINS BELOW THE 600 THRESHOLD.
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR FIRE CONCERNS, IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT ANY UNINTENTIONAL SPARK COULD LEAD TO A FIRE AND TO
REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN RECREATING OUTDOORS DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD.
LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWCASE SOME PASSING SHOWERS
ENCAPSULATED WITHIN A BAND OF FAIRLY STABLE CLOUDS MOVING WEST TO
EAST INTO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. POCKETS OF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE ESCORTED BY THESE TRADES, BRINGING PERIODIC SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
PREDOMINATELY STABLE CONDITIONS. PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY STRONG IN THE WINDIER CHANNELS AND WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY
AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6AM THURSDAY FOR THE TYPICAL
WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
A SMALL MID-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SLIGHT BOOST TO THE PERIOD EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL, LONG-
PERIOD SWELL EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL BOOST ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MENTIONED
SWELLS. SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL BE ROUGH AND CHOPPY DUE TO
THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...PIERCE
AVIATION...PIERCE
MARINE...WALSH
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