222
FXHW60 PHFO 260608
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
808 PM HST THU JUN 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, PUSHING
SHOWERS OVER MOSTLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD OCCASIONALLY ALLOW SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. NO
UPDATES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 PM HST THU JUN 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF HAWAII
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED, BUT ENHANCED TRADE WIND SHOWERS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE STATE IS DRIVING BREEZY
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THESE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES WILL BE THE PRIME TIME
AND LOCATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS. ISOLATED LEEWARD
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS, AND
ALONG THE KONA SLOPES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE ARRIVING
NEXT WEEK WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 70 BY MONDAY. AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE HUMID, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY BY
MID-WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
TRADE WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE FORECASTED STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AS BATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVE IN ON THE TRADES. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS AND VFR ELSEWHERE.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FOR WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
DUE TO THE ONGOING AND UPSTREAM SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR THE KONA SLOPES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS THE LAND BREEZE DEVELOPED.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN DUE TO THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 433 PM HST THU JUN 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THE SCA GOES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, IT WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SMALL, LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL HAS PEAKED, PRODUCING HEAD HIGH
TO OVERHEAD SURF HEIGHTS AT MOST EXPOSED SOUTH SHORE SURF BREAKS.
THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY EASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL,
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ENERGY WILL FILL IN SATURDAY AND PEAK BY
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SWELL
SHOULD BOOST SURF HEIGHTS BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND CHOPPY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS BREEZY TRADES PERSIST. SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH
FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL TO TINY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...FOSTER
AVIATION...SHIGESATO
MARINE...ALMANZA
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