147
FXHW60 PHFO 210137
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
337 PM HST WED MAY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THURSDAY AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
ON BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS USUAL, THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE NIGHTS
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH KONA ON BIG ISLAND. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TODAY, AVERAGING 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH IN A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS.
A DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING IN TONIGHT, AND THE INVERSION WILL
LOWER AND STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER AND
LEE SIDE OF TERRAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU, WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN BY LATE THURSDAY. OAHU IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE WIND
ADVISORY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY, BUT BREEZY
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME AND WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS.
AVIATION
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WILL BE LOCALLY
WINDY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, AND AS A DIFFUSE BAND
OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, AIRMET SIERRA COULD BE NEEDED
OVER WINDWARD SLOPES ELSEWHERE. AIRMET TANGO IS IN PLACE FOR LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. WITH WINDS BUILDING
AND STABILITY INCREASING, THIS AIRMET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MARINE
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE INTO THE STRONG TO GALE RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALENUIHAHA
AND PAILOLO CHANNELS, AND MAALAEA BAY STARTING THIS EVENING AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL REMAINING
ISLAND WATERS. EXPECT SCA TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
SMALL, SHORT- TO MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST (330 DEGREE) SWELL
ENERGY WILL DECLINE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SMALL NORTH-
NORTHWEST (330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE HAWAII REGION ON
SATURDAY, INCREASING SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SMALL, LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELLS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-
AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-KAHOOLAWE-KOHALA-LANAI LEEWARD-
LANAI MAUKA-LANAI SOUTH-LANAI WINDWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD SOUTH-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI SOUTHEAST-MOLOKAI
WEST-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-SOUTH HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...PARKER
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...FARRIS
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