981
FXHW60 PHFO 200633
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
833 PM HST FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE TAKING ON A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT ON
SUNDAY. THIS LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A DAILY SEA AND LAND
BREEZE CYCLE THAT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO BREEZY
LEVELS, BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE CONSISTENT WINDWARD SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM UPDATE
IR SATELLITE LOOP THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
DISSIPATING OVER THE ISLANDS AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILL IN. THE 00Z RAOB SOUNDING AT
HILO INDICATED A BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING TEMPERATURE INVERSION
HEIGHT OF AROUND 6000 FEET WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. RADAR HAS BEEN RATHER QUIET THIS EVENING WITH
SPARSE LIGHT SHOWERS DETECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WERE
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, TOPPING OUT AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AT SELECT REPORTING STATIONS, MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND
INTERIOR REGIONS. THE TROUGH THAT HAD HELPED ENHANCE SHOWER
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS POSITIONED TOO
FAR WEST OF STATE TODAY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. IN
THE UPDATE, RAINFALL CHANCES AND SKY COVER WERE DECREASED TONIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE BACKING TO A EAST
NORTHEAST DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM HST FRI JUN 19 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
REFLECTING THIS AS THEY SHOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BUILDING UP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE THE APPROACH OF A FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST
CAUSES THE WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW TO BACK OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. DESPITE THE SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION, THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BRING A COMBINATION OF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL, SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME LIMITED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER, A PLUME
OF DEEPER MOISTURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY
BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ALONG THE BIG ISLAND’S WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINTAINING MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE FAR NORTHEAST
WILL GRADUALLY REGAIN CONTROL, ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADES TO BUILD
TO MODERATE TO BREEZY SPEEDS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS, AND COMBINED WITH THE BREEZIER TRADES,
SOME RELIEF FROM THE MUGGINESS. ALOFT, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PINCHING OFF OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
FAR NORTH AND MOVING TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON WHERE
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS, BUT AS IT NEARS BY MIDWEEK, IT MAY
ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS BATCHES OF MOISTURE ROLL THROUGH.
AVIATION
ISSUED AT 315 PM HST FRI JUN 19 2026
A RATHER STABLE, GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERIODICALLY
DEVELOP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES, WHILE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PRODUCE
HIGHER CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHRA OVER TERRAIN. VFR SHOULD
DOMINATE AT THE TERMINALS, AND NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND FRONT PASSES
NORTH. TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND TREND UPWARD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS NORTH OF ISLAND CHAIN.
A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FADE
INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING SURF ALONG SOUTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES
TO DROP A NOTCH. A SERIES OF SMALL, MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS WILL FILL IN SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BOOST SURF HEIGHTS BACK NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TINY SURF WILL PREVAIL ALONG NORTH-FACING SHORES THROUGH MOST OF
THE COMING WEEK AS ONLY SOME LIMITED SHORT-PERIOD ENERGY REACHES
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. TRADE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING SURF ALONG EAST-
FACING SHORES BELOW AVERAGE. EAST SHORE SURF WILL BEGIN TO TREND
UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS AND UPSTREAM
OF THE REGION.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM UPDATE...THOMAS
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...ALMANZA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page