362  
WTPA42 PHFO 290238  
TCDCP2  
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018  
500 PM HST TUE AUG 28 2018  
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED  
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND LESS TIGHTLY WOUND. SINCE 2 PM,  
SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED, MAKING THE CENTER  
HARD TO LOCATE VERY PRECISELY. THE COLD, HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF  
THE CENTER HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM, DECREASE IN AREA AND DRIFT  
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND  
SAB WERE 1.5/25 KT. JTWC CALLED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE  
LATEST CIMSS ADT WAS 1.5/25 KT. LANE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT  
LOW. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST SET OF ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM.  
 
OUR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A  
LOW ALOFT NEAR 21N 171W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST  
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LANE. THE CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS  
47.5 KT OVER LANE. WITH CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,  
THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A NORTH-SOUTH LOW-LEVEL  
TROUGH IS DEEPENING NEAR 170W AND THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT SHOWING A NEW EXTRATROPICAL SURFACE LOW FORMING WITHIN THE  
TROUGH TONIGHT NEAR 30N 170W.  
 
LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING, THEN CURVE SLIGHTLY  
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
UNTIL WHATEVER MIGHT BE LEFT OF LANE IS ABSORBED INTO THE  
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/0300Z 19.5N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 168.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
24H 30/0000Z 23.0N 169.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
36H 30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
 

 
FORECASTER DONALDSON  
 
 
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