685  
WTPA44 PHFO 082123  
TCDCP4  
 
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 47...RESENT  
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP162018  
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 08 2018  
 
NORMAN IS QUICKLY LOSING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE  
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL. THE LOW-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR THE BETTER PART OF A  
DAY NOW, WITH SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE  
REMAINING WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWS THE LLCC BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED, NOW MARKED BY A 90  
NM X 30 NM WIDE CLEAR AREA. INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS NORMAN CONTINUES TO  
SPIN DOWN.  
 
THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES NORMAN GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH  
DAY 3 BEFORE BRIEFLY TURNING IT NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION ON  
DAY 5, IN LINE WITH GFEX. IT APPEARS THAT NORMAN WILL STILL PRODUCE  
AT LEAST GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT  
INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING COLD-CORE LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST, WITH  
GFS INDICATING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS  
SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES  
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 2, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING  
THEREAFTER.  
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY CPHC ON THIS SYSTEM.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 08/2100Z 26.9N 154.6W 45 KT 50 MPH  
12H 09/0600Z 28.4N 154.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
24H 09/1800Z 30.2N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
36H 10/0600Z 32.0N 154.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
48H 10/1800Z 33.5N 154.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
72H 11/1800Z 35.0N 155.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 12/1800Z 35.5N 157.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BIRCHARD  
 
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