675  
FGUS73 KARX 131816 CCA  
ESFARX  
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-  
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-151800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1213 PM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..FIRST SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND SUMMARY
 
 
THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLOODING ALONG THE MAIN-STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS YEAR. RISK FOR FLOODING ALONG THE  
TRIBUTARIES RANGES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THIS INFORMATION IS THE FIRST OF THREE PLANNED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS  
PROVIDING SPRING SNOW MELT AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION FOR THE  
COMING SPRING. THE INFORMATION THAT GOES INTO THIS OUTLOOK WAS  
COLLECTED FROM A NUMBER OF PARTNERS OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, THE US ARMY CORPS OF  
ENGINEERS, THE MIDWEST REGION CLIMATE CENTER, THE HIGH PLAINS  
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER, US DROUGHT MONITOR, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER, AND THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER.  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS A SUMMARY OF THE PAST AND PRESENT BASIN CONDITIONS  
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, NORTHEAST IOWA, AND SOUTHWEST INTO  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
 
A SECOND, UPDATED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY  
27TH WITH A THIRD UPDATE ON MARCH 12TH.  
   
..FLOOD POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS
 
 
OVERALL THE FLOOD RISK FOR THE MAIN-STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH ITS TRIBUTARIES RANGING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION, WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND MUCH ABOVE  
NORMAL STREAMFLOW ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THIS YEARS  
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING.  
 
THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK IS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN WHERE SNOW DEPTHS OF 18 INCHES TO 2 FEET ARE COMMON.  
FURTHER SOUTH, SNOW COVER IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
WATER CONTENT IN THE SNOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN  
WISCONSIN IS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHILE WATER CONTENT NEAR  
INTERSTATE 90 WAS AROUND 1 INCH. CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6  
WEEKS WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING HOW THE FLOODING SITUATION WILL  
EVOLVE.  
   
..CLIMATE OUTLOOK INFORMATION
 
 
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN, SEPTEMBER 1ST THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH, WAS A  
WET ONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION  
TOTALS RANGED FROM 10.53 INCHES NEAR MATHER, WI TO 26.30 INCHES NEAR  
LANCASTER, WI. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE ALONG AND  
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE GENERALLY 14 TO 26 INCHES OF  
PRECIPITATION FELL WHICH IS 6 TO 18 INCHES WETTER THAN THE 1981-2010  
NORMAL. IT WAS THE WETTEST AUTUMN, 16.95 INCHES AT ROCHESTER, MN,  
AND 5TH WETTEST 14.36 INCHES, AT LA CROSSE, WI. MEANWHILE, NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 90 PRECIPITATION TOTALS RANGED FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES WHICH  
IS 2 TO 6 INCHES WETTER THAN THE 1981-2010 NORMAL. WITH AUTUMN  
TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THERE WAS  
LITTLE EVAPORATION, SO SOILS WERE VERY WET HEADING INTO THE WINTER  
WHEN SOIL MOISTURE VALUES WERE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.  
 
FROM DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH FEBRUARY 13TH, PRECIPITATION VALUES ACROSS  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. TWO TO  
4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHICH IS NEAR  
NORMAL TO 1 INCH WETTER THAN NORMAL. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 4 TO 5  
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FELL WHICH IS 1 TO 2 INCHES WETTER THAN  
NORMAL. SEVERAL WARM PERIODS HAVE EITHER RESULTED IN RAIN OR MELTED  
SOME OF THE SNOWPACK. AS A RESULT, HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THIS  
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE SNOWPACK. AS OF FEBRUARY 12TH, THE  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE.  
 
AFTER A COLD SNAP AT THE END OF THIS WEEK, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY FAVOR WARMER THAN  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY RANGE FROM 15  
TO 25 DEGREES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 20 TO 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE  
FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION TYPICALLY  
RANGES FROM A HALF TO 1 INCH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
   
..RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION AND PROBABILITIES
 
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE, AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
 
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 16.0 18.0 20.0 : >95 27 82 9 39 6  
WABASHA 12.0 14.0 16.0 : >95 56 93 20 67 8  
ALMA DAM 4 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 59 8 45 7 28 <5  
MN CITY DAM 5 660.0 662.0 665.0 : >95 28 88 14 48 7  
WINONA DAM 5A 655.0 659.0 661.0 : >95 40 81 9 44 7  
WINONA 13.0 15.0 18.0 : >95 43 94 23 75 9  
TREMPEALEAU 647.0 649.0 651.0 : >95 37 92 17 51 7  
LA CRESCENT 641.0 643.0 645.0 : >95 30 87 12 52 8  
LA CROSSE 12.0 13.0 15.5 : >95 44 >95 28 62 8  
GENOA 631.0 634.0 636.0 : >95 48 87 12 56 8  
LANSING 17.0 19.0 20.0 : 83 10 56 8 39 <5  
LYNXVILLE 625.0 628.0 631.0 : >95 23 80 9 36 <5  
MCGREGOR 16.0 19.0 22.0 : >95 52 >95 28 83 9  
GUTTENBERG 15.0 18.0 21.0 : >95 46 91 14 52 5  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 40 8 10 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 14.0 18.0 20.0 : 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 18.0 20.0 22.0 : 9 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
AUSTIN 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 10 10 <5 7 <5 5  
CHARLES CITY 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 24 17 9 9 6 6  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 10.5 12.0 14.0 : 39 16 16 7 7 <5  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 12.0 16.0 20.0 : 84 47 43 21 13 <5  
GARBER 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 63 35 28 20 19 7  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DORCHESTER 14.0 17.0 19.0 : 44 19 10 5 <5 <5  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
DODGE 10.5 11.0 12.0 : >95 14 >95 7 83 <5  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 18.0 20.0 22.0 : 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 47.0 51.0 55.0 : >95 57 77 24 37 <5  
GALESVILLE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : >95 52 92 36 9 <5  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 33 <5 11 <5 <5 <5  
VIOLA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 87 16 40 <5 <5 <5  
READSTOWN 11.0 14.0 16.0 : >95 35 12 <5 <5 <5  
SOLDIERS GROVE 13.0 16.0 19.0 : >95 27 9 <5 <5 <5  
GAYS MILLS 13.0 15.0 17.0 : >95 47 64 8 10 <5  
STEUBEN 12.0 13.0 15.0 : >95 26 80 9 11 <5  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 74 14 45 <5 20 <5  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 15.0 16.5 18.0 : >95 71 80 45 45 14  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 16.2 17.3 18.4 19.6 21.2 23.8 27.2  
WABASHA 13.7 14.6 15.7 17.0 18.8 21.1 24.0  
ALMA DAM 4 13.1 14.2 15.4 16.8 18.5 21.5 25.3  
MN CITY DAM 5 660.5 661.9 663.5 664.9 666.9 669.9 673.7  
WINONA DAM 5A 656.4 657.7 659.3 660.9 662.6 665.1 668.3  
WINONA 14.9 16.3 18.0 19.3 20.4 21.8 23.3  
TREMPEALEAU 648.1 649.1 650.2 651.1 652.3 654.4 656.9  
LA CRESCENT 642.0 642.6 644.1 645.1 646.6 649.1 651.8  
LA CROSSE 13.5 14.0 15.2 16.1 17.4 19.1 21.1  
GENOA 633.1 633.6 635.0 636.2 637.7 639.9 642.2  
LANSING 15.5 16.3 18.0 19.4 21.3 24.7 27.8  
LYNXVILLE 625.7 626.6 628.4 630.1 631.9 635.3 638.6  
MCGREGOR 19.9 21.3 23.0 24.6 27.1 30.0 31.9  
GUTTENBERG 17.2 18.4 19.8 21.2 23.8 27.5 29.2  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 12.8 13.8 15.0 16.8 20.0 23.6 26.0  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 7.1 7.7 8.8 9.9 12.6 14.8 16.2  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 8.7 9.4 11.3 12.7 14.4 16.1 16.2  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 4.9 5.7 7.0 8.1 10.0 11.1 11.7  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.9 18.8  
AUSTIN 8.3 8.7 10.1 11.1 12.7 15.0 17.5  
CHARLES CITY 6.9 7.6 8.3 9.7 11.9 14.9 19.6  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 7.0 7.3 8.6 10.0 11.4 12.8 14.5  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 9.9 11.2 13.2 15.6 17.5 20.7 22.5  
GARBER 12.1 13.2 16.4 18.1 20.6 24.5 26.7  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.7 7.7 8.6 9.3  
DORCHESTER 11.1 11.4 12.0 13.4 15.3 17.0 18.2  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
DODGE 11.6 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.4  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 10.9 11.5 12.7 14.2 15.6 16.6 19.3  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 48.9 49.7 51.2 53.7 56.6 59.1 63.3  
GALESVILLE 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 8.5 9.0 10.1 11.3 12.2 13.2 13.6  
VIOLA 13.2 13.6 14.7 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.6  
READSTOWN 11.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.2  
SOLDIERS GROVE 13.2 13.4 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.9 17.2  
GAYS MILLS 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.4  
STEUBEN 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.2 15.2 15.7  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 8.1 8.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 11.8 12.9  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 15.2 15.7 16.7 17.7 18.7 20.0 20.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR  
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2020 - 05/17/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
LAKE CITY 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2  
WABASHA 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1  
ALMA DAM 4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4  
MN CITY DAM 5 651.2 651.2 651.2 651.2 651.2 651.2 651.2  
WINONA DAM 5A 645.9 645.9 645.9 645.9 645.8 645.8 645.8  
WINONA 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6  
TREMPEALEAU 639.7 639.7 639.7 639.7 639.7 639.6 639.6  
LA CRESCENT 631.7 631.7 631.7 631.6 631.6 631.5 631.5  
LA CROSSE 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0  
GENOA 621.6 621.5 621.5 621.5 621.4 621.3 621.2  
LANSING 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8  
LYNXVILLE 613.7 613.7 613.6 613.5 613.4 613.2 613.2  
MCGREGOR 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8  
GUTTENBERG 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8  
:ZUMBRO RIVER  
ZUMBRO FALLS 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4  
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER  
ROCHESTER 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7  
:ROOT RIVER  
HOUSTON 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2  
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER  
LANESBORO 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8  
:CEDAR RIVER  
LANSING 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3  
AUSTIN 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3  
CHARLES CITY 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1  
:TURTLE CREEK  
AUSTIN 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3  
:TURKEY RIVER  
ELKADER 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5  
GARBER 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1  
:UPPER IOWA RIVER  
DECORAH 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5  
DORCHESTER 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0  
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER  
DODGE 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1  
:BLACK RIVER  
NEILLSVILLE 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0  
BLACK RIVER FALLS 36.3 36.3 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.2  
GALESVILLE 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5  
:KICKAPOO RIVER  
LA FARGE 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5  
VIOLA 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9  
READSTOWN 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7  
SOLDIERS GROVE 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2  
GAYS MILLS 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3  
STEUBEN 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9  
:WISCONSIN RIVER  
MUSCODA 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3  
:YELLOW RIVER  
NECEDAH 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 AND 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE  
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE  
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT  
ON THE INTERNET AT:  
 
WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ON FEBRUARY 27TH.  
 

 
 
WETENKAMP  
 
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