247  
FGUS73 KDMX 240011  
ESFDMX  
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-  
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-  
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-  
197-151800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
611 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2021  
   
..ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR  
RIVER BASINS IN THE NWS DES MOINES SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS  
DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS--THE FIRST PART FOR THE PROBABILITIES OF  
MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING, THE SECOND PART FOR HIGH WATER  
AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:CEDAR RIVER  
JANESVILLE 13.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FINCHFORD 17.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MASON CITY 10.0 14.5 15.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHELL ROCK 13.5 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NEW HARTFORD 12.5 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDAR FALLS 89.0 92.0 94.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDSON 14.0 15.0 19.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
WATERLOO 13.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWAN 12.5 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MARSHALLTOWN 19.0 23.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
TAMA HWY E49 12.5 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES W RIVERSIDE 12.5 16.0 16.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:IOWAY CREEK  
AMES LINCOLN WAY 10.0 14.0 15.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES US 30 21.5 23.5 24.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COLFAX 18.0 19.0 21.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OSKALOOSA 24.5 28.5 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ALGONA 17.0 18.0 22.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DAKOTA CITY 20.0 24.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BOONE RIVER  
WEBSTER CITY 14.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRIMES 14.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
JEFFERSON 19.0 21.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PERRY 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDFIELD 20.0 24.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VAN METER 17.0 22.0 23.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DES MOINES IA 28 36.0 38.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DES MOINES FLEUR 12.0 16.0 25.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH RIVER  
NORWALK 22.0 25.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
INDIANOLA 23.0 26.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH RIVER  
ACKWORTH 29.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BUSSEY 25.0 30.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ESTHERVILLE 10.0 13.0 14.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
EMMETSBURG 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HUMBOLDT 10.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
FORT DODGE 10.5 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
STRATFORD 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DES MOINES 2ND AV 23.0 26.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DES MOINES SE 6TH 24.0 26.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
EDDYVILLE 63.0 68.0 70.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OTTUMWA 11.5 15.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
DAVIS CITY 12.0 20.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER  
PROMISE CITY 25.0 28.0 31.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CHARITON RIVER  
CHARITON 19.5 26.0 29.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MOULTON 36.0 37.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
ATLANTIC 19.0 23.0 24.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER  
BEDFORD 24.0 25.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CEDAR RIVER  
JANESVILLE 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.3 5.1 5.8  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FINCHFORD 5.9 5.9 6.4 7.2 8.1 10.5 11.4  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MASON CITY 3.3 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.5 5.7 6.1  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHELL ROCK 8.0 8.0 8.3 8.8 9.4 10.3 10.6  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NEW HARTFORD 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.4 4.9 6.1 7.0  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDAR FALLS 78.9 78.9 79.3 80.5 82.1 84.8 86.6  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDSON 5.1 5.2 6.7 8.3 11.2 12.6 13.3  
:CEDAR RIVER  
WATERLOO 5.8 5.8 6.1 6.7 7.4 8.4 9.5  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWAN 3.7 3.7 4.0 5.6 7.2 8.7 10.1  
MARSHALLTOWN 9.5 9.5 10.0 10.9 11.9 13.1 14.1  
TAMA HWY E49 1.8 1.8 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.2 8.4  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES W RIVERSIDE 3.3 3.5 4.5 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.0  
:IOWAY CREEK  
AMES LINCOLN WAY 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.3  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES US 30 9.9 10.5 11.5 13.3 14.5 15.7 17.5  
COLFAX 7.0 7.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 11.8 14.9  
OSKALOOSA 8.2 8.2 9.3 10.7 12.6 14.4 16.9  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ALGONA 7.0 7.0 7.3 7.9 10.4 12.3 12.6  
DAKOTA CITY 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.6 10.2 11.3 11.5  
:BOONE RIVER  
WEBSTER CITY 1.9 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.2 5.9 7.0  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRIMES 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.5 6.9 7.7  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
JEFFERSON 5.0 5.1 5.5 6.3 7.1 8.5 10.0  
PERRY 3.8 4.1 5.0 6.4 8.2 10.0 12.1  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDFIELD 2.7 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.9 5.7 7.0  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VAN METER 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.8 5.8 7.2 9.8  
DES MOINES IA 28 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.5 23.9 25.5 28.5  
DES MOINES FLEUR 3.2 3.4 4.0 5.0 6.2 7.4 9.9  
:NORTH RIVER  
NORWALK 5.2 5.2 7.9 10.4 14.2 18.5 21.2  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
INDIANOLA 7.7 7.9 8.6 9.4 13.1 15.5 20.4  
:SOUTH RIVER  
ACKWORTH 6.9 7.8 8.7 9.9 11.3 12.4 16.1  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BUSSEY 6.4 7.6 8.6 10.0 12.0 14.8 15.5  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ESTHERVILLE 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.3 5.1 5.5  
EMMETSBURG 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.4 4.3 4.8  
HUMBOLDT 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.9 6.5 6.9  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
FORT DODGE 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.3  
STRATFORD 5.6 5.6 6.0 7.0 8.5 10.9 12.4  
DES MOINES 2ND AV 15.3 15.3 15.6 16.2 17.1 18.5 19.7  
DES MOINES SE 6TH 10.0 10.2 11.2 12.6 14.9 16.4 20.0  
EDDYVILLE 50.5 50.5 51.8 53.9 56.7 60.4 61.0  
OTTUMWA 2.9 2.9 3.6 4.9 7.1 9.6 10.4  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
DAVIS CITY 1.2 1.8 3.1 4.1 5.6 6.6 7.4  
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER  
PROMISE CITY 4.6 6.1 7.7 12.4 15.0 18.5 20.1  
:CHARITON RIVER  
CHARITON 7.7 10.0 12.0 14.0 14.9 15.5 15.6  
MOULTON 25.7 25.7 26.7 27.2 28.0 29.4 32.3  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
ATLANTIC 2.9 3.0 4.2 4.7 5.6 7.3 11.2  
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER  
BEDFORD 11.0 12.0 13.1 14.2 14.9 15.9 16.6  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/29/2021 - 02/27/2022  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:CEDAR RIVER  
JANESVILLE 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0  
:WEST FORK CEDAR RIVER  
FINCHFORD 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4  
:WINNEBAGO RIVER  
MASON CITY 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
:SHELL ROCK RIVER  
SHELL ROCK 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6  
:BEAVER CREEK  
NEW HARTFORD 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4  
:CEDAR RIVER  
CEDAR FALLS 78.7 78.7 78.5 78.5 78.4 78.3 78.3  
:BLACK HAWK CREEK  
HUDSON 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
WATERLOO 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3  
:IOWA RIVER  
ROWAN 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0  
MARSHALLTOWN 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8  
TAMA HWY E49 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES W RIVERSIDE 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7  
:IOWAY CREEK  
AMES LINCOLN WAY 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7  
:SOUTH SKUNK RIVER  
AMES US 30 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1  
COLFAX 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4  
OSKALOOSA 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3  
:EAST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ALGONA 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5  
DAKOTA CITY 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2  
:BOONE RIVER  
WEBSTER CITY 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GRIMES 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6  
:NORTH RACCOON RIVER  
JEFFERSON 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5  
PERRY 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1  
:SOUTH RACCOON RIVER  
REDFIELD 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1  
:RACCOON RIVER  
VAN METER 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1  
DES MOINES IA 28 20.1 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.6  
DES MOINES FLEUR 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8  
:NORTH RIVER  
NORWALK 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7  
:MIDDLE RIVER  
INDIANOLA 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8  
:SOUTH RIVER  
ACKWORTH 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0  
:CEDAR CREEK  
BUSSEY 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8  
:WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER  
ESTHERVILLE 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1  
EMMETSBURG 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3  
HUMBOLDT 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9  
:DES MOINES RIVER  
FORT DODGE 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2  
STRATFORD 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4  
DES MOINES 2ND AV 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5  
DES MOINES SE 6TH 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7  
EDDYVILLE 49.3 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.9 47.8 47.8  
OTTUMWA 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2  
:THOMPSON RIVER  
DAVIS CITY 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7  
:SOUTH FORK CHARITON RIVER  
PROMISE CITY 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1  
:CHARITON RIVER  
CHARITON 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0  
MOULTON 18.7 18.6 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0  
:EAST NISHNABOTNA RIVER  
ATLANTIC 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1  
:EAST FORK 102 RIVER  
BEDFORD 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND 30- TO 90-DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DMX FOR MORE WEATHER  
AND WATER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE 1ST OF NEXT MONTH.  
 

 
 
END  
 
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