006  
FGUS73 KDVN 131831  
ESFDVN  
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-  
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-  
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1201 PM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
..2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK 1  
 
.INTRODUCTION:  
   
.. BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST OF THE THREE PLANNED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER  
RESOURCE OUTLOOKS FOR 2025 FOR THE QUAD CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE  
AREA (HSA), WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST AND  
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI. RIVERS  
INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK ARE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS  
TRIBUTARIES FROM JUST NORTH OF DUBUQUE, IOWA TO SOUTH OF GREGORY  
LANDING, MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY TRIBUTARY SYSTEMS INCLUDE THE  
MAQUOKETA, WAPSIPINICON, CEDAR, ENGLISH, IOWA, SKUNK, NORTH SKUNK,  
AND DES MOINES RIVERS IN IOWA; THE FOX RIVER IN MISSOURI; AND THE  
PECATONICA, ROCK, AND GREEN RIVERS IN ILLINOIS, AS WELL AS THE LA  
MOINE RIVER IN ILLINOIS. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM  
MID FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.  
   
FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW  
 
THE SPRING FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LOCAL TRIBUTARY RIVERS ACROSS THE NWS QUAD  
CITIES HSA.  
 
SOME FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT RISK LEVELS INCLUDE:  
 
1. WHILE A RECENT SYSTEM BROUGHT A WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK TO THE  
REGION, LOW SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL AREA AND THE HEADWATER AREAS IN MINNESOTA AND  
WISCONSIN WILL RESULT IN A LOWER-END FLOOD RISK AT THIS TIME.  
 
2. BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOCAL AREA WILL PROVIDE  
MORE POTENTIAL STORAGE FOR SPRING RAINS, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE THAW THE  
FROZEN SOILS.  
 
3. CURRENTLY, DEEP FROZEN SOILS LOCALLY AND NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF  
THE MAINSTEM WILL RESULT IN LESS CAPACITY FOR INFILTRATION OF SPRING  
RAINS/SNOW UNTIL MELTING BEGINS.  
 
4. LOCAL STREAMS ARE CURRENTLY FLOWING AT OR BELOW THE NORMAL LEVELS.  
 
THROUGH THE SPRING, IMPACTS FROM THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO  
CHANGE. ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS THAT WILL DRIVE THE FLOOD THREAT  
THIS SPRING WILL BE THE SPRING PRECIPITATION THAT WE RECEIVE,  
WHETHER IT BE FROM RAIN OR SNOW. THIS, COMBINED WITH FROZEN GROUNDS  
CAN LEAD TO ISSUES DOWN THE ROAD, BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT  
FAVOR SUCH. BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES THROUGH THE  
COMING WEEKS.  
   
KEY TAKEAWAYS  
 
* EVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SPRING FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL IN  
THE NWS QUAD CITIES HSA, THIS DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT HIGH IMPACT  
FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR. THE SEVERITY OF ANY FLOODING WILL BE  
DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY CHANGES IN THE KEY FACTORS MENTIONED  
ABOVE. IN ADDITION, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE OUTLOOKS FOR SPRING  
PRECIPITATION TO SEE IF THAT COULD BECOME A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR  
THIS YEAR.  
 
* WHILE MUCH OF THE HSA RECENTLY RECEIVED WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL,  
ROUGHLY 6-10 INCHES THROUGH OUR NORTHERN HSA AND 1-4 INCHES IN OUR  
SOUTHERN HSA, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACTS OF THE  
NEW SNOWPACK. GIVEN THE FROZEN GROUND, ANY MELT FROM THIS SNOW  
WILL LARGELY BECOME RUNOFF. THIS SNOWPACK, ALONG WITH FUTURE SNOW  
AND RAIN FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVE PATTERN, MAY LEAD TO INCREASES IN  
FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALLY. ALTHOUGH, GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND  
NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS, THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF ROOM IN LOCAL  
STREAMS, ALLOWING FOR SOME GIVE WHEN IT COMES TO INCREASING  
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT OUTLOOKS SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD OF MAJOR  
FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BEING LOW AT THIS TIME (10-15%  
CHANCE), BUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  
 
* WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOCAL AREA  
INCREASES THE CAPACITY OF THE SOILS TO SOAK IN SPRING PRECIPITATION  
AND WILL MITIGATE THE NEAR TERM FLOOD RISK, AS WELL AS DECREASE THE  
RISK FOR PROLONGED FLOODING. MANY FACTORS ARE CONSIDERED WHEN  
DETERMINING THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING SEASON.  
A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE FACTORED INTO THE FINAL THREAT  
CATEGORIZATION. THESE FACTORS ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW, AND  
ARE CATEGORIZED AS AN INCREASED, NEUTRAL, OR DECREASED CONTRIBUTOR  
TO POTENTIAL SPRING FLOODING.  
 
.SEASONAL PRECIPITATION:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
 
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND NORTHEAST  
MISSOURI HAS BEEN LARGELY BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS WINTER. RECENT  
SNOW RECEIVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL ALLEVIATE SOME OF THIS, BUT  
SOME ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WITH THAT, MUCH OF THE HSA,  
ESPECIALLY EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, REMAINS ABNORMALLY  
DRY OR IN A MODERATE DROUGHT DUE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
OBSERVED SINCE THE FALL MONTHS IN 2024. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED WELL  
IN SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS, WHICH REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. NORTH OF  
THE AREA, PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN SO FAR  
THIS WINTER HAS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL, ASIDE FROM PARTS OF FAR  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) FAVOR BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF FEBRUARY FOR ALL OF  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN. WITH DRY SOILS AND ONGOING  
DROUGHT, ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO INFILTRATE  
INTO THE GROUND ONCE WE START TO LOSE SOME OF THE FROST DEPTH. UNTIL  
THEN, MUCH OF THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING PRECIPITATION WILL  
TRANSLATE TO RUNOFF, RATHER THAN EASILY INFILTRATE.  
 
WHILE CURRENT CONTRIBUTIONS FROM PRECIPITATION YIELD MINIMAL IMPACTS  
ON LOCAL FLOODING, AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN AND STORM TRACK  
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THE  
FLOOD RISK, ESPECIALLY WITH FROZEN GROUNDS.  
 
.SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
 
RECENT SNOWFALL HAS RESULTED IN A WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK BETWEEN 4-8  
INCHES THROUGH PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WITH A  
SWATH OF UPWARDS TO 10-12 INCHES IN OUR NORTHERN HSA, PER THE LATEST  
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC  
REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC). WHILE THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOT OF SNOW,  
THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO 0.25-0.50" OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT (SWE),  
RESULTING FROM HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. THUS, THIS CURRENT SNOW  
PACK ISN'T EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE FLOOD THREAT  
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ALTHOUGH, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS.  
THUS, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION AND FROZEN GROUNDS  
MAY LEAD TO FLOOD CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE DUE TO MUCH OF THIS GOING  
TO DIRECT RUNOFF, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.  
 
.SOIL CONDITIONS:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
 
GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE FALL,  
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS SOIL MOISTURE RANKING PROFILES  
AROUND 10-40% FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE HSA, WITH NEAR NORMAL SOIL  
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI HEADWATERS. WE  
CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERING  
THESE FACTORS, THEY FAVOR A NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT FOR SPRING  
FLOODING, AS DRIER SOILS WILL BE BETTER SUITED TO SOAK IN HEAVIER  
RAINS ONCE WE LOSE THE FROST.  
 
.FROST DEPTH:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL THREAT  
 
THE GROUND REMAINS FROZEN THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY DEEP IN SOME AREAS. LOCALLY, WE ARE SEEING FROST  
DEPTH BETWEEN 5-20 INCHES, WITH THOSE NEAR THE HEADWATERS OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OBSERVING 20-40 INCHES OF FROST DEPTH. LOCALLY, WE  
HAVE SEEN A REDUCTION IN FROST DEPTH OVER THE LAST WEEK, WHICH MAY  
START TO ALLEVIATE SOME FUTURE FLOOD CONCERNS. ANY FROST DEPTH CAN  
BECOME PROBLEMATIC WITH FURTHER PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING, PRIOR TO  
THAW, AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RUNOFF, RATHER THAN  
INFILTRATE EASILY INTO THE SOIL. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON  
PRECIPITATION THOUGH, YIELDING A NEUTRAL THREAT TO THE OVERALL FLOOD  
THREAT.  
 
.RIVER CONDITIONS:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL TO DECREASED THREAT  
 
STREAMFLOW ANALYSIS FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)  
INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATERSHED AND  
TRIBUTARY STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOWS THAT ARE  
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WOULD HAVE MORE CAPACITY TO HOLD RUNOFF FROM  
HEAVY SPRING RAINS.  
 
.ICE JAM FLOODING:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - NEUTRAL THREAT FOR BREAKUP JAMS  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - NEUTRAL THREAT FOR BREAKUP JAMS  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE THIS WINTER, WITH STRETCHES OF  
COLD RESULTING IN PLENTY OF RIVER ICE. ALTHOUGH, THERE HAVE BEEN  
BOUTS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME  
OF THIS ICE TO MELT AND/OR BREAKUP. BOUTS OF VERY COLD AIR ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ICE  
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITHOUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD, THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RIVER ICE AND ICE JAM FLOODING SEEMS LOW  
AT THE MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A NEUTRAL TO DECREASED  
THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING THIS SPRING, FOCUSING ON THE MAIN THREAT  
BEING FROM A BREAKUP JAM.  
 
.WEATHER/CLIMATE OUTLOOKS:  
 
LOCAL RIVERS - DECREASED THREAT  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER - DECREASED THREAT  
 
WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERNS ARE TYPICAL OF THE SPRING MONTHS, THIS  
COULD LEAD TO VARIATIONS OF WARMER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, WHERE  
THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TRACKS OF INDIVIDUAL  
AND MULTIPLE STORM SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN OR SNOW TO  
PARTS OF THE REGION.  
 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER, PROBABILITIES ARE LEANING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY AND INTO THE  
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, WITH A SIGNAL FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME.  
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR MID MARCH THROUGH APRIL IS LEANING TOWARDS NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
.SUMMARY:  
 
THE SPRING FLOOD RISK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LOCAL TRIBUTARY RIVERS ACROSS  
THE NWS QUAD CITIES HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. VARIABLE TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE WINTER HAVE LED TO ICE FORMATION, ALONG WITH SOME ICE  
MELT/BREAKUP. SNOWFALL HAS ALSO BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF  
THE WINTER, WITH AN UPTICK SEEN IN MID FEBRUARY, AS WELL AS MORE  
CHANCES IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING SEEMS  
TO BE NEUTRAL AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD TO DEVELOP MORE ICE. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE  
UNFAVORABLE FOR SNOWMELT OR ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES.  
SOME FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT RISK LEVELS INCLUDE: 1) THE  
GENERAL LACK OF PRECIPITATION THIS WINTER, KEEPING US BELOW NORMAL.  
A RECENT SYSTEM BROUGHT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 6-10 INCHES OF SNOWPACK  
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE  
NEXT TWO WEEKS. 2) DEEP, FROZEN GROUNDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER BASIN WILL PREVENT MUCH INFILTRATION UNTIL THAWED. 3) NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS AND BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS.  
   
..ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK  
 
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR  
RIVER BASINS IN THE NWS QUAD CITIES SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS  
DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS, THE FIRST PART FOR THE PROBABILITIES OF  
MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING, THE SECOND PART FOR HIGH WATER  
AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING  
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 27 48 19 39 9 12  
DUBUQUE 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 30 53 23 47 10 16  
BELLEVUE LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 19 37 13 32 9 12  
FULTON LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 28 51 17 35 10 15  
CAMANCHE 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 23 46 17 35 11 15  
LE CLAIRE LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 28 51 19 37 12 22  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 36 56 28 50 14 27  
ILL. CITY LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 56 26 46 13 27  
MUSCATINE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 38 57 26 46 13 27  
NEW BOSTON LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 38 60 30 51 18 32  
KEITHSBURG 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 38 60 31 49 16 27  
GLADSTONE LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 39 61 28 47 13 24  
BURLINGTON 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 37 59 28 47 15 28  
KEOKUK LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 20 32 13 21 9 12  
GREGORY LANDING 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 46 62 22 42 <5 <5  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 16 20 10 15 <5 6  
MAQUOKETA 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 23 19 16 16 5 6  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 5 7 <5 6 <5 <5  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 15 23 7 11 <5 <5  
DE WITT 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : 73 72 65 65 26 43  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 59 56 31 41 7 12  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 42 41 21 28 10 13  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 5 15 <5 5 <5 <5  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 8 23 <5 5 <5 <5  
CEDAR RAPIDS 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 13 32 5 14 <5 8  
CEDAR BLUFF 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 10 30 <5 8 <5 <5  
CONESVILLE 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 28 52 5 13 <5 6  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 53 71 28 42 <5 6  
IOWA CITY 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LONE TREE 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 30 32 5 7 <5 <5  
COLUMBUS JCT 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 7 18 <5 6 <5 <5  
WAPELLO 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 28 53 <5 7 <5 <5  
OAKVILLE 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 22 40 <5 6 <5 <5  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 53 55 24 33 11 15  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 8 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ST FRANCISVILLE 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 33 37 6 7 <5 <5  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 28 22 8 9 <5 <5  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 38 38 25 23 <5 <5  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 11 24 <5 11 <5 <5  
JOSLIN 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 51 56 25 33 8 19  
MOLINE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 48 53 23 32 9 26  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 16 27 9 13 <5 <5  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 55 61 45 43 21 18  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 8.1 9.6 10.8 12.7 16.1 20.1 21.3  
DUBUQUE 10.3 11.5 12.6 14.6 17.9 21.8 23.1  
BELLEVUE LD12 8.9 10.3 11.4 13.2 16.1 19.5 20.7  
FULTON LD13 8.6 10.0 11.7 13.2 16.4 20.4 21.4  
CAMANCHE 11.0 11.9 13.0 14.0 16.9 21.0 22.1  
LE CLAIRE LD14 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.3 11.2 14.4 15.4  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 9.5 10.3 11.6 13.0 16.3 19.2 20.4  
ILL. CITY LD16 8.1 8.9 11.3 12.4 16.1 19.2 20.8  
MUSCATINE 9.9 10.7 12.7 14.0 18.1 21.0 22.5  
NEW BOSTON LD17 9.7 10.6 12.7 13.8 17.2 20.3 21.5  
KEITHSBURG 10.0 10.7 12.2 13.1 15.9 18.3 19.6  
GLADSTONE LD18 5.4 6.3 8.2 9.2 12.2 14.9 16.6  
BURLINGTON 11.1 11.7 13.3 14.2 16.8 19.4 20.7  
KEOKUK LD19 7.3 7.9 10.1 11.5 15.1 18.7 20.3  
GREGORY LANDING 9.1 10.2 12.9 14.4 17.8 20.9 22.9  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 6.0 6.5 7.7 8.7 11.2 17.0 19.6  
MAQUOKETA 12.5 13.0 15.4 18.3 23.9 27.6 28.5  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.5 8.5 11.2 12.8  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 6.8 8.0 9.1 10.9 12.9 16.4 19.5  
DE WITT 4S 8.8 9.7 10.8 12.0 12.7 13.4 13.7  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 10.0 11.5 14.3 16.6 19.0 20.3 22.4  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 5.9 7.2 11.3 13.6 16.5 20.1 23.5  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 4.8 5.2 7.1 9.9 12.2 14.2 15.6  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 4.7 5.0 7.0 8.6 10.8 12.2 13.5  
CEDAR RAPIDS 4.8 5.0 6.2 7.7 10.2 12.4 14.7  
CEDAR BLUFF 7.2 7.8 9.4 11.1 13.9 16.0 18.6  
CONESVILLE 8.3 8.9 10.2 11.4 13.5 14.5 15.2  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 9.3 10.3 12.4 15.1 17.3 18.2 18.6  
IOWA CITY 12.2 12.9 14.9 16.6 19.0 19.6 20.9  
LONE TREE 9.3 10.6 11.6 14.1 16.4 17.9 18.7  
COLUMBUS JCT 13.3 14.1 16.1 17.8 19.6 22.6 23.6  
WAPELLO 16.2 16.9 18.4 19.7 21.4 23.4 24.2  
OAKVILLE 5.1 5.8 7.3 8.8 10.5 12.6 13.5  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 9.5 10.6 12.8 14.2 15.9 18.1 19.5  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 13.3 15.7 17.2 18.5 20.2 21.5 23.1  
ST FRANCISVILLE 10.7 13.1 15.4 16.8 18.9 20.4 23.7  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 5.9 6.3 9.4 12.5 15.3 17.8 19.0  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.8 14.0 14.8 15.5  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 5.7 6.1 6.9 9.1 10.8 13.0 15.2  
JOSLIN 8.8 9.4 10.0 12.1 14.0 15.9 18.4  
MOLINE 9.5 9.9 10.6 11.9 12.9 13.9 16.6  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 6.2 7.0 9.9 11.2 13.7 16.3 17.5  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 9.5 12.1 16.9 21.2 23.6 24.8 26.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.3 21.9 21.3  
DUBUQUE 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.3 21.9 21.3  
BELLEVUE LD12 23.0 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.2 21.8  
FULTON LD13 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.1  
CAMANCHE 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.1  
LE CLAIRE LD14 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.1  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7  
ILL. CITY LD16 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7  
MUSCATINE 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7  
NEW BOSTON LD17 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8  
KEITHSBURG 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.6  
GLADSTONE LD18 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.6  
BURLINGTON 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.8  
KEOKUK LD19 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.5 31.5 31.5 30.8  
GREGORY LANDING 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.3 32.2  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
MAQUOKETA 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
DE WITT 4S 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9  
CEDAR RAPIDS 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9  
CEDAR BLUFF 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0  
CONESVILLE 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
IOWA CITY 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2  
LONE TREE 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3  
COLUMBUS JCT 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7  
WAPELLO 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7  
OAKVILLE 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5  
ST FRANCISVILLE 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5  
JOSLIN 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7  
MOLINE 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DVN FOR MORE WEATHER AND  
WATER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF NEXT MONTH.  
 
 
 
GUNKEL  
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