203
FNUS73 KOAX 151445
FWSOAX
SPOT FORECAST FOR FOX...SILVER CITY FIRE / RESCUE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
945 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 96 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 29 PERCENT. WINDS STAY MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH THE MORNING INVERSION BURNING OFF BY THIS
AFTERNOON LEADING TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL. WE'LL START TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AROUND 2-4PM WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE BURN SITE AROUND 6-7PM. STORMS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE BURN SITE AROUND 8-9PM, POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 10PM (30%
CHANCE). STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE BURN SITE BY MIDNIGHT.
MORE STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY
AS 7PM BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 9PM. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 AND HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 37 PERCENT.
STRONGEST POSSIBLE 30 FT WIND SPEEDS ON DAY OF BURN: 25 MPH,
THOUGH HIGHER LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS (50-75 MPH)
LOWEST POSSIBLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON DAY OF BURN: 27 PERCENT
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS UP TO 6 MPH.
WIND (30 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13
TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (14900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (69800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
GFDI................0.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........5 7 5 5 17 22 26 29
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............76 81 86 89 93 94 94 95
RH..............60 53 45 41 35 32 31 29
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 10 12 13 14 13 13
EYE LVL WND DIR.E SE SE SE SE SE S S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6
EYE LVL WND GST.6 8 8 9 10 10 10 10
30 FT WND DIR...E SE SE SE SE SE S S
30 FT WND SPD...6 8 8 10 10 10 10 10
30 FT WND GST...10 13 13 15 16 17 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.3 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 13 13 14 14 13 14
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SDSPL KT-FT/100015 22 32 41 55 67 70 55
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 4 MPH, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BECOMING
LIGHT.
WIND (30 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT 6 TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO EAST THEN
NORTH OVERNIGHT 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 9
TO 12 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (32600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (3300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
GFDI................0.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........44 74 90 85 91 81 69 58 49 48 47 37
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
TEMP............94 94 90 82 79 76 73 70 68 67 64 64
RH..............31 32 37 47 54 58 66 73 76 78 84 84
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SE S S SE E N NE NE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 6
EYE LVL WND DIR.S S SE S S SE E N NE NE E E
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
EYE LVL WND GST.9 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
30 FT WND DIR...S S SE S S SE E N NE NE E E
30 FT WND SPD...9 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 8 5 5 5
30 FT WND GST...15 13 13 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 6 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S NE N N NE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 13 12 13 10 9 9 9 10 10 12
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SDSPL KT-FT/100033 13 7 6 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 3
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST UP TO 7 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
WIND (30 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 11 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 21 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (81000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
GFDI................0.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 41 43 25 29 37 44 62 65 71 54 55
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............63 62 65 69 75 79 83 86 88 88 89 87
RH..............87 90 84 76 60 52 44 40 38 38 37 40
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 10 11 13 14 14 16 14 14
EYE LVL WND DIR.E NE E E E E E E E E E E
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7
EYE LVL WND GST.5 5 5 5 7 8 10 10 11 12 11 11
30 FT WND DIR...E NE E E E E E E E E E E
30 FT WND SPD...5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11
30 FT WND GST...8 8 8 9 12 14 16 17 18 20 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.9 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 14 15 16 16 17 20 20 20 21
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 4 8 15 25 40 55 68 77 81 80 73
FORECASTER...MCCOY
REQUESTED BY...SHAWNA GORMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613721.0/OAX
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SHAWNALGORMAN@GMAIL.COM
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