860
FXUS63 KARX 092019
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
219 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED NORTH OF I-94 WHERE UP
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 4-6 HOURS UNDER
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR. SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94, A
CORRIDOR OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MN, NE IA, AND FAR SW WI BEFORE A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN OCCURS.
- STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS OF -25F OR LOWER ARE
POSSIBLE (30-70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MESSY WINTER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING REMAINS
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AS A QUICK HITTING DYNAMIC
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. STARTING FROM THE NORTH, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, HIGHEST OVER TAYLOR AND
CLARK COUNTIES WHERE A BAND OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
ASSOCIATED WITH 900-700HPA FRONTOGENESIS. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1-1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE PER THE 09.12Z HREF WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THESE ACCUMULATIONS OVER A SHORT PERIOD, ON THE ORDER OF AROUND
6 HOURS. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR
WHICH PRIMARILY AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JACKSON,
JUNEAU, AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
WORKING SOUTH, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 850HPA WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES, NUDGING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF I-94 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, NORTHEAST
IOWA, AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITHIN THIS
WARM NOSE, BUT A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE ABOVE COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING FROM THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THIS. OVERALL, EXPECTING GENERALLY A GLAZE TO A 0.05" OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW, A TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE REGION,
ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS AND ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
THE SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES DRASTICALLY OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WINTER
SYSTEM TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DEEPENING OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40+ MPH POSSIBLE. 09.12Z HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE THE HIGHEST WITH REGARD TO WIND GUSTS, SUGGESTING
70-90% FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH, ONLY 10-20% IN THE 09.13Z NBM.
CONFIDENCE LEANS TOWARDS THE STRONGER WIND GUST SOLUTION GIVEN
STEEPENING 0-2KM LAPSE RATES, NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE,
AND OBSERVED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS OF 35-45MPH.
DESPITE THIS CONFIDENCE, HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT, GENERALLY UP TO 1 INCH
AND PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW HAS FALLEN OFF DRAMATICALLY AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN THE RAP/HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE DECREASED IN
RECENT RUNS, LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL.
STILL EXPECTING DIFFICULT TRAVEL DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOWFALL, BUT THE INTENSE BURSTS SEEM LESS
LIKELY THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND TONIGHT'S SYSTEM UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW, RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 09.13Z NBM MEAN SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. GIVEN THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS
BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND, EXACT VALUES ARE NOT CERTAIN. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE 09.00Z
LREF SUGGESTING 30-60% AND 50-70% PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS
LESS THAN -25C, RESPECTIVELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
MESSY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IS SHAPING UP
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DECK OF LIFR TO MVFR
STRATUS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS
TO ALLOW FOR TRANSIENT VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW THIS EVENING. AS COLD AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE OVER THE SNOW OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO LOW END-IFR RANGE (SOME HIGH-END
LIFR POSSIBLE) FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP QUITE A BIT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI (INCLUDING THE RST TERMINAL).
WIND GUSTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 35-45
KT RANGE WEST OF THE RIVER WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIVER. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SPEEDS ON THE RISE STARTING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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