071
FXUS63 KARX 231132
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
532 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COOLER DAY ON HAND TODAY WITH A RATHER TRICKY, LOW
CONFIDENCE CLOUD FORECAST.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS NORTH OF I-94 WHERE WE COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES.
- STILL NOT A SOLID ANSWER FOR HOW OUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. THE TRACK IS TRENDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SNOWBAND IS IN
QUESTION.
- SEESAWING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK SHAPING UP TO BE FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS LOWER OVER OUR NEW SNOWPACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
TODAY: CLOUDS, OR SUN?
THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RATHER TRICKY GIVEN TWO
COMPETING FORCES AT PLAY THAT THE GUIDANCE IS FAILING TO
BALANCE. THE CURRENT SUITE OF SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE
FAILING TO EVEN DEPICT THE CURRENT STRATUS SHIELD OVER
WISCONSIN, COURTESY OF A NNE FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS
PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING. SUBSIDENCE OFF AN APPROACHING 1045-MB SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD ERODE THE STRATUS SHIELD AND SLOW THE SSW PROGRESSION OF
THE BAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HAPPEN, BUT HOW QUICKLY
IS THE MAIN QUESTION. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN CLEAR
AND CLOUDY SKIES THAT IS DIFFICULT TO CONVEY IN THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GRIDS GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE CLEARING. THE CLOUD COVER ALSO PLAYS INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWNWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THE LONGEST.
EXPECT PLENTY OF UPDATES NEEDED TO THE SKY FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY!
TUESDAY: SNOW CLIPS THE REGION
UPSTREAM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES FLATTENS
THIS MORNING AS A 170-KT JET STREAK CRESTS THE RIDGE AND DRIVES
INTO THE REGION. A RELATIVELY SUBTLE PV LOBE RIPPLES DOWN THE
DOWNSTREAM FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE CYCLONE REFLECTION TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE MICHIGAN UP DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, KEEPING THE RISK FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA REGION OF THE CYCLONE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, LIMITING THE DEGREE OF IMPACTS FOR MOST THE REGION, THOUGH
WE COULD SNEAK OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF I-94. THE SNOW
COMES TO AN END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE WAVE RACES ESE. THE
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT IS
ON THE HIGHER SIDE (60-70%), BUT THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR
THE SECOND SYSTEM 36 HOURS LATER...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING: SNOW TRENDING SOUTH, WEAKER
FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE, IF ANYTHING,
LESSENED CONFIDENCE IN HOW OUR WED NIGHT/THU MORNING STORM WILL
UNFOLD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE DEPICTING A SHALLOWER
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, LIMITING THE DEGREE OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS A RESULT, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
LEANING ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ARK-
LA-TEX REGION AND CHOKING OFF OUR MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
SYSTEM. THIS HAS BEEN A SOLUTION THAT THE EPS GUIDANCE STARTED
GRAVITATING TOWARDS YESTERDAY MORNING AND THE GEFS SUITE IS
STARTING TO PEAL IN THAT DIRECTION. THE GFS/GEFS 00Z OUTPUT
STILL MAINTAINS THE MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN ZONE AND A MODEST
SNOW BAND OVER NORTHEAST IOWA, BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF
THESE TOTALS SLIP SOUTH AND DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
VORT LOBE IS SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND THE GUIDANCE
COULD STILL WOBBLE, BUT THE RECENT TRENDS ARE HARD TO IGNORE.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES SEESAW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OUR PAIR OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WAA AHEAD OF OUR
TUESDAY BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, FOLLOWED BY THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THAT SENDS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S FOR
WEDNESDAY. WITH OUR WED/THU SYSTEM TRENDING SOUTH, WE START TO
SEE A PACIFIC/DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS SPREAD EASTWARD OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGING FOR FRIDAY. JUST
HOW WARM WILL BE DICTATED BY OUR SNOWPACK, BUT AREAS OF LOWER
SNOW COVERAGE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MAYBE EVEN NEAR 50.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLAMS
SOUTHWARD AND SENDS HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S/30S (SOME OUTLIERS
ARE IN THE TEENS) FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MVFR STRATUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 12Z STEADILY
CLEARS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY TONIGHT.
NNW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT, INCREASING TO
5-15G15-25KTS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. IF WINDS REMAIN DECOUPLED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AFTER 06Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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