284  
FXUS63 KARX 061831  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
130 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
- SEASONABLE TEMPS INTO TUE, THEN WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FROM I-94 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD WED MORNING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
> OVERVIEW: SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LAYING OUT FROM SE WI INTO  
CENTRAL IL WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT  
PERSISTS FOR TUE BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE  
PLAINS. THE GEFS AND EPS REMAIN ADAMANT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS THU NIGHT/FRI  
MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ON  
PLACEMENT/STRENGTH, BUT LATEST FAVORED TRACK WOULD BRING IT ACROSS  
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR THE  
WEEKEND. LONG TERM GUIDANCE NOT FAVORING A BLOCKING PATTERN, RATHER  
THE FLOW IS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
> RAIN CHANCES: SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LAYING OUT FROM SOUTHEAST  
WI SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPARK ALONG THE  
FRONT, MOVING NORTHEAST. BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WERE MOVING  
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS/IA AND WILL WORK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING - AND EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN  
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AS THIS OCCURS. CAMS TRENDING TOWARD  
EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS  
MINIMAL TO NONE WITH THE INSTABILITY POOL SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
THE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT SHOT FOR  
RAIN. NOT A LOT OF QPF CURRENTLY INDICATED WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE  
PAINTING ONLY 5 TO 15% CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 1/10". LIMITATION ON  
SATURATION A MAIN DRAWBACK. MODEL BLEND HOLDS THE LOW END POPS (20-  
30%) WHICH LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  
 
> TEMPERATURES: SEASONABLY COOL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS COLDER  
(COMPARATIVELY) AIR FLOWS IN POST THE COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST FLOW  
A LOFT PERSISTS. BY MID WEEK, WITH THE ADVENT OF RIDGING A LOFT,  
TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE  
WEEKEND. 75% OF THE GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR HIGHS FROM THE  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S - WITH SUNDAY CURRENTLY SHAPING UP AS THE  
WARMEST OF THE BUNCH. ABOUT 5% OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST 80 COULD BE  
REACHED AT A FEW LOCATIONS.  
 
BUT BEFORE WE GET THERE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUE NIGHT COULD  
DROP TEMPS TO FREEZING ACROSS THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (25-50%  
CHANCES VIA THE LREF). FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THESE  
AREAS.  
 
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025  
 
LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 12  
HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF A AUM-BCK LINE. CURRENT THINKING IS  
THAT THE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM RST/LSE BUT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN  
THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING OF MVFR  
CEILINGS IS LOW DUE TO THICK MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OBSCURING THEM  
ON SATELLITE, SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT,  
WHILE SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT, EXPECT DRIER  
AIR TO ALSO MOVE IN AT THE SURFACE, SO HAVE LEFT OUT FOG MENTIONS.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION...FERGUSON  
 
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