282
FXUS63 KARX 021134
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
534 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WHILE NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING DRIER AIR LIMIT WIDESPREAD
CONFIDENCE, HREF (02.00Z) PROBABILITIES OF 20-50% FOR
ACCUMULATING FREEZING DRIZZLE DOT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
- GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PERPETUAL RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WINTRY MIX TONIGHT:
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP, ATTEMPTING TO
MOISTEN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AIRMASS. EXIT
BEHAVIOR OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCALLY REMAINS AN IMPORTANT
FORECAST DETAIL AS THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL CREATE CONTENTION FOR
LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF SATURATION, POTENTIALLY CAUSING A TIGHT
GRADIENT OR DECAYING PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS IT ADVECTS EAST.
WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE PACIFIC WEST
COAST GRADUALLY DECAYS, FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
INCOMING MOISTURE.
ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL WAA STRUGGLES TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS THE 0C ISOTHERM AT 925MB OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. WHILE, CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LIMITS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH
SATURATION IS ABLE TO OCCUR, ICING RISK ALSO INCREASES. CURRENT
HREF CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHEST (30-50%) IN
NORTHEAST IOWA INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES & RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK:
THE GRADUAL WARM UP CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S AND POTENTIALLY 60S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
LINGERING MEAGER BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STREWN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST PERPETUATES PRECIPITATION CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDER INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GEFS (01.18Z) PROBABILITIES FROM
50 TO 70% FOR 0.5" OF QPF IN 24 HOURS GRAZING LOCALLY SOUTHERN
MOST COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL
AMELIORATE THICKEST SNOW AND RAIN ON SNOW ABLATION CONCERNS BY
THEN, 15"+ FROST DEPTHS WILL HINDER ABILITY OF WATER RUN OFF
SHOULD HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SMALL
CLUSTER OF STRATUS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND FL070-090.
LOWER STRATUS, CURRENTLY CREEPING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA,
WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING INTO THE KRST TERMINAL AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THIS EARLY ARRIVAL IN
THIS PACKAGE JUST YET AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. THE BRUNT OF THE MVFR STRATUS WILL
MOVE IN THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE KLSE TERMINAL,
LIKELY AFTER 06Z. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PROB30S AT KRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW AT KLSE TO INCLUDE WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT AS WE
GET CLOSER, THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
IFR/LIFR CIGS LOOK TO MOVE INTO SE MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD, IMPACTING THE KRST TERMINAL AFTER THE END OF THIS
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY,
PEAKING AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 8-15 KTS,
BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY BACKING TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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