747
FXUS63 KARX 271105
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND THROUGH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST.
- BESIDES THURSDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY:
AN ANOMALOUS AREA OF HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS (90+ PERCENTILE) AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OBSERVED OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN 27.00Z
RAOBS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AND
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
SPANNING THE 80 DEGREE RANGE OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY, CURRENTLY
FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TODAY & SATURDAY:
THE ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EXERTS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK (90TH PERCENTILE SPC CLIMATOLOGY AT
MPX) AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, SOLIDIFYING A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED MOISTURE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT(S) OF DRIER AIR SINK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES.
INITIAL STORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S STORM ACTIVITY
EXHIBITING AN OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY AMPLE
INSTABILITY UNDER THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE WITH WEAK SKIRTING
WAVES. OUTSIDE OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LONG TERM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ONLY GRAZING LESS THAN 30% FOR 0.01"+ IN
24 HOURS ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON (20 TO 40%) AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING MAINLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHEAST
WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...CECAVA
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