958
FXUS63 KARX 240438
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -25 AND -35. WINDS LIGHTEN UP TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP
TO RAISE WIND CHILL VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE
LOWER OR HIGHER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ARE BETWEEN -15 AND -30 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
- CONTINUED COLD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. HIGH POTENTIAL
(75- 95%) FOR HAZARDOUSLY COLD (WIND CHILLS -25 OR LOWER)
CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AT LEAST A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW, BUT TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY: BITTER COLD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND
A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO.
AS A RESULT OF THE COLD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. COUNTIES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN DROP OFF FIRST AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSER, KEEPING OUR WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
RAISING OUR APPARENT TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT GROUP OF COUNTIES WILL
BE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS WINDS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WESTERN WISCONSIN, ESPECIALLY ELEVATED AREAS.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HERE FALLS OFF AT 3AM SATURDAY. THE LAST
TWO COUNTIES ARE CLARK AND TAYLOR WHERE THEIR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
GOES UNTIL 9AM SATURDAY AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COLD
EVEN WITH THE MINIMAL WIND. WIND CHILLS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY ARE MAINLY BETWEEN -5 AND -15 DEGREES AS TEMPERATURES GET
CLOSE TO ABOVE ZERO AND THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
WITH THE AREA STILL UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS BRINGING DOWN
THE COLD ARCTIC AIR, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT IS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
WIND TO LOWER THE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES A LOT. ONE THING TO KEEP
AN EYE OUT FOR IS HOW FAR NORTH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS GET DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SKY COVER WE HAVE WILL
DETERMINE HOW COLD WE CAN GET THIS EVENING. TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE
WHAT CLOUD COVER COULD DO TO OUR TEMPERATURES, WE CAN LOOK AT THE
NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES WHICH SHOW ABOUT A 5 TO 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE, FOR EXAMPLE AT LA CROSSE THESE PERCENTILES SHOW EITHER A
LOW TEMPERATURE OF -25 OR -15 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. EVEN IF ENOUGH
CLOUD COVER DOES MOVE INTO THE CWA, NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WOULD SEE THE CLOUDS FIRST AND THEREFORE
THEIR TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN THE WARMEST. EVEN A FEW EXTRA HOURS
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE MINIMAL WIND AND SNOW COVER WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES VERY QUICKLY. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (10 TO 30%) THAT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
FOR TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURE. THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE ONE
TO WATCH HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF
ANY UPDATES ARE NEEDED BASED ON THAT POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY-FRIDAY: COLD AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GET ABOVE ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH STILL REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES DOWN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINING ANOTHER BOUT
OF BITTERLY COLD AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT GET BACK
DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. WINDS DO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS TO DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -30
DEGREES RANGE. AS A RESULT ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED TO ADDRESS THESE WIND CHILLS. USING THE DESI LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN -25 DEGREE WIND CHILLS, THERE IS A 75 TO
95% CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH POTENTIALLY BRINING SOME FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW. THE FIRST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION ARE KEEPING POPS BELOW 15%. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24.06Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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