004
FXUS63 KARX 030549
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1249 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY CEASE BY
MIDWEEK WITH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
FROST POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTS.
- PRECIPITATION/MEAGER STORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CURRENTLY BIFURCATING THE SOUTHEASTERN 5/8 OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMER LOCAL
AREAS TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. UPPER/MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST ON GOES WV IMAGERY LOOPS BETWEEN
RETURN FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A QUASI-CLOSED UPPER LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OFF THE WEST COAST AND WOBBLES IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY
CANADIAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CANADA CAUSES ANOTHER
SOUTHEAST SAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SHUNT EAST AS IT APPROACHES
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW LOCALLY,
SHUNTED IN OTHER DIRECTIONS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
LOW UNIFIES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, POTENTIALLY
BIFURCATING THE SOUTHEASTERN 60% OF THE FORECAST AREA
(NBM/LREF) WITH PRECIPTIATION CHANCES. LOCAL IMPACTS APPEAR
MINIMAL AS BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING STRETCHES EAST AND SOUTH.
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK, USHERING IN BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LOCALLY. INITIAL
FROST POTENTIAL GRAZES NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT, EEKING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH BIFURCATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING/LOWERING
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN (95%) TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A VERY LOW (5%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY PERIOD AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER AT ISSUANCE WILL
DISSIPATE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY LEADING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, SOME GUSTS TO
25-30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page