456
FXUS63 KARX 050508
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1208 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90
THIS MORNING WITH SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS LOW
(20 TO 40%) CHANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
TODAY - THURSDAY: RAIN THIS MORNING, DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES, MOSTLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 EARLY THIS MORNING AS A THETA-E AXIS SITS FROM CENTRAL IOWA
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS BOUNDARY CLIPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. BY THIS EVENING, THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IN TURN ENDS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE CWA.
IN GENERAL, DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN BEING STRATIFORM, SOME AREAS IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD PICKUP 0.5 TO 1" OF
RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.75"
RANGE AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH (BETWEEN 3 AND 4KM). THE LATEST
HREF LPMM DOES HAVE SOME SIGNALS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO RECEIVE UP TO 1" OF RAIN.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
0.25". A CAVEAT OR TWO FOR THIS IS IF A MORE HEAVY SHOWER IS
OVERHEAD OR IS SOME TRAINING GOES ON THEN THESE TOTALS COULD BE
HIGHER IN A GIVEN LOCAL AREA. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
AREA AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S.
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
STORM CHANCES
THE MAIN JET STREAM REMAINS OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SAGS SOUTHWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF
WHERE STORMS END UP IS LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH THE RICHER CENTRAL PLAINS AIRMASS CAN ADVANCE AS THIS
WILL PLAY HEAVILY INTO THE PROBABILITY OF ANY STORMS. ONE AREA OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS HAVING HIGHER STORM
CHANCES (40 TO 55%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MINIMAL, TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IF AT
ALL. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/SKOW
AVIATION...JAR
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