691
FXUS63 KARX 031911
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
211 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRIER FORECAST ON THE DOCKET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH A
PASSING GLANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIGHT SNOW ON
MONDAY.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
STUCK IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
PREDOMINATELY CYCLONIC LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW LINGERS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS (LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS). AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING BREAKS
DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET USHERS IN A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A RATHER RAW MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY AND BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS IS
FAIRLY HIGH GIVEN THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GEFS/EPS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL HINGE ON
WHETHER WE SEE ANY CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO
INCREASE THE DIURNAL SPREAD. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
PLAY INTO HOW WHEN TEMPERATURES DECREASE--THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DECREASE IS NEARLY THE SAME AMONGST ALL THE GUIDANCE.
LOW RISK FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS FOR FRIDAY, WITH THE MAIN SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE
PEGGED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE APPROACHING DAKOTA COLD
FRONT DECAYING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA. THE INITIAL RUNS
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE COME IN DRIER FOR FRIDAY
AND HAVE LIKEWISE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
INDEED, IF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP COME TO FRUITION, WE
MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW MONDAY
MODEST FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL SURFACE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BRING A LINE OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. INITIAL DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE
SHOWERS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT AND CLEARING QUICKLY--THE
BROADER POPS REFLECT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE IN HOW THEY HANDLE ANY SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, RESULTING BROAD- BRUSHED POPS
THAT WILL BE REIGNED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 3 2025
CEILINGS OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR FOR THE PERIOD,
WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING VFR
CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE MORE SCT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE BREAKS IS LOW. NW WINDS OF 5-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON LESSEN OVERNIGHT AND VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
5-10 KTS FOR FRIDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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