106
FXUS63 KARX 181132
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID- TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A HALF-INCH.
- WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WHERE THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THIS MORNING
THE 18.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN THE FIRST OF 2 COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MID- TO LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SUNRISE WILL BE NEAR 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN START TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE MID- TO LATE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SURFACE FRONT. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE
MID-30S, AND IN THE MID- TO UPPER 30S. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE RAIN. THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE IS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONLY UP TO A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID-30S, AND
IN THE MID- TO UPPER 30S, AND BY 6 PM, THEY WILL RANGE FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NEAR 20 ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVING
LATER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER A FLASH FREEZE WILL
OCCUR OR NOT.
AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, LIGHT BAND OF SNOW AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE 2ND
FRONT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE DUE
TO STEEPENING 950-850 MB LAPSE RATES, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM 15 TO 30 MPH AND WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 MPH.
WITH THE MODELS SLOWER AT DECREASING THE WIND GUSTS, THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AND KLSE BETWEEN 18.15Z AND
18.16Z. RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LOWER
VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE EITHER IFR OR MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page