810
FXUS63 KARX 250346
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TURNING MUCH
COLDER.
- PERIODIC RAIN INTO TUESDAY. RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ON
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO
THANKSGIVING. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
- MORE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE 24.12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE 24.00Z GRAND ENSEMBLE REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIKE
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE
AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS RAIN. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THE 700 MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, THE RAIN TOTALS HAVE INCREASED
IN THE 24.12Z HREF. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE
ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS STILL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSOR, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MUCH STRONGER. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND DEFORMATION BAND. LOOKING AT THE CLUSTERS, THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW SOUTH THE MEASURABLE
SNOW WILL GET. 49% OF THE MEMBERS EITHER HAVE MORE RIDGING
UPSTREAM (24% OF THE MEMBERS) OR A DEEPER TROUGH (25% OF THE
MEMBERS). IN THESE SCENARIOS, THE MEASURABLE SNOW IS FURTHER
SOUTH. THEY HAVE A 60 TO 80% CHANCE OF 1 INCH OF SNOW OCCURRING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE, THE OTHER
51% MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEY SHOW THAT THESE 60-80%
PROBABILITIES FOR THESE 1 INCH OR HIGHER TOTALS MORE TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MEASURABLE SNOW, THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES ON SNOW TOTALS REMAINS THE SAME THROUGHOUT THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES (HIGHEST NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29) IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THE BACK AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION STEEPENS THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, STRONG
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 75% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS
40-60% PROBABILITY OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER.
THERE IS ONE CLUSTER (25% OF THE MEMBERS) WHICH HAS A 60-80% OF
ITS MEMBERS WITH WINDS AT 40 MPH OR GREATER. IT MAKES SENSE
BECAUSE THAT ENSEMBLE HAD THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS.
THANKSGIVING
DURING THE THANKSGIVING DAY, SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ALOFT DURING THE MORNING AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THERE ARE FLURRIES ON THIS
DAY, THEY WOULD BE MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED EVEN MORE FROM YESTERDAY. THEY
NOW RANGE FROM MID-20S TO AROUND 30. THIS IS 5 TO 15 DEGREES
COLDER THAN NORMAL. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST
THANKSGIVING (NOVEMBER 28) WHEN WE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID- AND UPPER 20S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
THIS IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST THANKSGIVING WHEN WE HAD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TEENS.
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL START
THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY.
BLACK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. 65% OF THESE MEMBERS
SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM AND AS RESULT THEIR SNOW TOTALS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE (10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES).
35% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THIS RESULTS IN MORE ADVISORY SNOWS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE
(10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BLACK FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO
AROUND 30. THIS IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. DURING
LAST YEAR'S BLACK FRIDAY (NOVEMBER 29), HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM MID- TEENS TO MID-20S. DURING 5 OUT OF THE LAST 7 BLACK
FRIDAYS, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. DURING LAST YEAR'S BLACK FRIDAY,
WE HAD LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. DURING THE
PAST 4 OUT 5 BLACK FRIDAYS, LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM 5 TO
15 DEGREES.
WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH, THE WIND CHILLS WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
CIGS: LIFR/IFR EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TUE MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER TUE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
CIGS TO HOLD IFR/MVFR THROUGH TUE NIGHT, LIKELY THROUGH WED.
WX/VSBY: RAIN EXITS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AFTER
THAT. A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER BRIEF (1-3 HOUR) PERIOD OF
-SHRA BETWEEN 20-00Z TUE AFTERNOON. LIKELY ANOTHER BREAK FROM PCPN
CHANCES INTO MID EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS THEN PRESSING IN FROM THE
WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM BY LATE EVENING.
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. -SHSN BECOME MORE SPOTTY MOVING
THROUGH WED MORNING BUT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF WI.
VSBY IMPACTS THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM FOG AND/OR RAIN. KRST COULD BE
STUCK AT 1/2SM OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT - WITH THE SREF AND
HREF SUGGESTING AS MUCH. TRENDS FAVOR SOME IMPROVEMENT MOVING INTO
TUE AFTERNOON.
WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL START
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN SWING NORTHWEST POST IT AND
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. SUSTAINED OF 20+ KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
35 KTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO EASE UP LATER WED
NIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page