158
FXUS63 KARX 171905
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
205 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE TORNADO
THREAT DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS THIS MORNING LARGELY STAYED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL NORTH OF I-94 AND OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITHIN OUR CWA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AROUND 45 TO 60 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE VORTICITY RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT AND THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. ALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST. WITH THE HEAVY RAIN STAYING WELL TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, THE FLOODING POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED A BIT. THERE STILL
REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO REPEATED STORMS
OR A HEAVIER STORM OVER A GIVEN LOCATION. OUR CURRENT FORECASTED QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.2 TO 0.5" FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 IN WISCONSIN. AREAS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE GENERALLY UNDER 0.25", BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AS THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL GO.
THURSDAY: SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK THETA-E BOUNDARY MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
300 TO 600 J/KG OF MUCAPE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15 TO 25%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS FROM CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED
COVERAGE IN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
POP CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
PRIMARILY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST LREF
HAS A 60 TO 75% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE
LREF HAS AROUND A 40 TO 55% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-90. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN ON
TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR
LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN INTENSITY IN
THE EVENING. THESE CEILINGS LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS OF
MIDDAY VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
THESE STORMS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 5-10KTS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...SKOW
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