163
FXUS63 KARX 282303
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
603 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA,
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT IS HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. THE
GUSTS WILL BE 30 TO 35 MPH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND UP
TO 40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES,
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN, MID-LATITUDE LAPSE RATES INCREASE,
AND MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG, ELEVATED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE
1-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW SUPER
CELL THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE INTO
MULTI- CELL THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT, THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK AND
THAT SEEMS REALISTIC.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
BEHIND OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
WITH THE BETTER SHEAR POST FRONTAL AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY
BEING EAST OF AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL GET. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT. BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE WEAK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LLWS
BEING THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40-45 KTS AT AROUND 2KFT WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE, FEW TO BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 MPH. THE GUSTS WILL BE 30 TO 35
MPH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND UP TO 40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES,
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. MEANWHILE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE/JAR
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