329
FXUS63 KARX 140532
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1232 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH CHANCES (80-95%) FOR RAINFALL ON THURSDAY WITH NO
IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) FOR WIND GUSTS TO
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON FOR
SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94 (20-50% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW
28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
AN H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BUT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS, ANOTHER VERY NICE FALL DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE DRIFTLESS REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE
UPWARDS OF 80-100%. THE POTENTIAL FOR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OR
MORE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND THE NEW NBM HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE AT 40-60% AREA-WIDE. THE HIGH END RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (5-10% CHANCE AT OCCURRENCE) ARE ONLY UPWARDS OF 1.5-2
INCHES, SO IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL MAY REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BUT DRIER, COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUT AN
END TO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY: STRONG WINDS FRIDAY - FROST/FREEZE SATURDAY
MORNING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A LLJ IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SET UP
WITH H850 WINDS UPWARDS OF 40-50 KTS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-40
MPH WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) TO EXCEED 45 MPH. EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL BE AT LEAST BREEZY ALL DAY, THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COOLER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN
WELL INTO THE 30S AND PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. JUST HOW LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP WILL BE
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY HOW LIGHT THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST FROST CONDITIONS IS VERY HIGH (80-100%) BUT
THE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS (28 DEGREES OR BELOW) MAY ONLY OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THE 13/01Z NBM HAS A 30-50% CHANCE TO DROP
DOWN TO 28 DEGREES OR LESS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
SOUTHERLY WIND ON SATURDAY SHOULD BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
THAT PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW EVEN THOUGH
THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
COMING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PUSHES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONSEQUENTLY, THE RECENT HREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-80%) FOR MVFR CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING TOWARDS AFTERNOON, BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR.
IFR CIGS SEEM GENERALLY UNLIKELY AS THE NBH AND HREF HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES (UNDER 20%) FOR THIS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FROM THE NORTH BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER INTO THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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