522
FXUS63 KARX 062044
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
244 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT IS BETWEEN 8 PM
AND 11 PM. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IS LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN ADDITION, WITH FROZEN
GROUND AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH, THIS WILL RESULT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
PEAKING FROM THE 50S INTO LOW 60S FOR SOME.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST LONGER TERM
FORECAST, INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE ON THE INCREASE, SNOWFALL
PROBABILITIES REMAIN MEAGER 30-50%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AT 2 PM, SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
CAP OF MUCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS EVEN
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER AND MID-60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA, MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT AS
FAR NORTHEAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE CAMS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLD POOLS COALESCE, LINE SEGMENTS
WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND REMAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IN
OUR AREA WILL BE MORE ELEVATED THAN SURFACE-BASED TONIGHT. IN
THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS, MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE
250-750 J/KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL OF HAIL. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THE
BETTER SURFACE-BASED CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG MORE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS MORE LIKELY
WHERE THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY EXIST.
THE SEVERE WEATHER TIMING FOR TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE 8
PM TO 11 PM.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND FROZEN GROUND,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PONDING AND RAPID RUN OFF. THIS WILL
RESULT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
WARM END TO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE OVERALL LIFTING NATURE TO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY'S COLD SECTOR
ALLOWS WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. LREF CONFIDENCE (60%-80%) FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR SUNDAY DECREASES FOR MONDAY WITH TIMING
AND ADVECTION OF RESULTANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY LOCALLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SUBSEQUENT FILLING IN DUE TO A CONFLUENT PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. PREVIOUS LREF (06.00Z)
MEMBERS LIMITED LOCALLY HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO LATER CONFLUENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH RECENT (06.12Z) MEMBERS (GEFS/EPS) BRINGING 60-80% PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE(S) THROUGH TUESDAY:
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, USHERING IN POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AI CONVECTIVE MODEL (FENGWU/PANGU)
FORECAST TRENDS HAVE SHUNTED HIGHER CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION TO
THE LOW TRACK KEEPING THE WARMER SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULTANT IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL ALSO SHUNT SOUTH, PRIMARILY
AFFECTING LOCALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT THE
CURRENT FORECAST HOUR.
LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
A DIFFLUENT, LOW CONFIDENCE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK CREATES
CHALLENGES FOR LOCATION OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG QUASI-ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE EPS (06.12Z) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
RAISED 1" OF SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES IN 24 HOURS TO 40-60% FROM
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCALLY. THE GEFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER, KEEPING PROBABILITIES FOR THE SAME LESS THAN 10%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
END. THEN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE PRIMARILY IFR/MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE/JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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