230
FXUS63 KARX 200811
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
211 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THIS MORNING, AND LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
THIS MORNING
A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY DRY AIR BELOW 850-700 MB. AS A RESULT, QUESTIONS LINGER
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ALONG AND NORTH INTERSTATE 94
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY ONLY SEE SOME FLURRIES UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THIS, KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE IT LOOKED LIKE 2 COLD FRONTS WOULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ONLY ONE FRONT. THE COLDEST 925 MB AND 850 MB (TEMPERATURES -15
TO -21C) WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-20S TO MID-30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO ZERO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE NBM WINDS CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE, SO LIKE LAST
NIGHT TOOK A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE. THIS RAISED THE SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION, WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT INITIALLY AS
SNOW AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO EITHER A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
OR JUST RAIN ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE UP TO 1 INCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HIGH TEMPERATURES BE IN THE 30S ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH AND
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, JUST SOUTH OF AREA, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS AND WARM LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-30S INTO THE MID-40S ON
CHRISTMAS EVE AND FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S ON CHRISTMAS
DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
CIGS: MOSTLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS (VFR) THROUGH 12-15Z SAT. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
AROUND 12Z SAT BUT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STARTING TO BACK OFF ON THAT.
SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR BY LATE MORNING AND SHOULD HOLD SKC/SCT THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY.
WX/VSBY: SMALL WINDOW (1-3HR) FOR -SN AT TAF SITES SAT MORNING, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES NORTH OF I-94. AGAIN, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS STARTING
TO TREND AWAY FROM THAT. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE PROB30 FROM KLSE.
WINDS: WINDS PICKING UP LATE THIS EVENING WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
APPROX 12-15Z SAT. GUSTINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. OF NOTE, IF
GUSTS AREN'T REALIZED, LLWS WILL BE FACTOR WITH 20050+KT WINDS AT 2
KFT THRU 08-09Z. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES, BUT
INCREASE POST FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20 KTS FOR A
BULK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
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