622
FXUS63 KARX 080556
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEVERE RISK WITH EACH STORM CHANCE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS ARE LOW.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A COOLING
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BETTER STORM
POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
TODAY - SUNDAY: DRY TODAY, STORMS FOR SUNDAY
AFTER A TROUGH AXIS MOVED PAST THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING, THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TODAY. WITH
THE NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO COME
BACK, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY ALOFT AND NOT IMPACT THE NEAR
SURFACE AREA. FOCUSING ON THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE BOUNDARY
THAT AS HELPING STORMS INITIATE FOR YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY STORM CHANCES AT BAY AND RESULT IN A PRETTY NICE
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. DEWPOINTS DECREASE
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. BY
LATER THIS EVENING, A LOW FORMS JUST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
HELPS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD. IN DOING SO,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE BACK INTO THE MID
60S. INCOMING PWATS ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0" RANGE SO STORMS THAT DO
FORM WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS IN SHORT ORDER. NOW THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A DECENT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS
UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS COULD
FAVOR A MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. MOST CAMS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF
STORM COMPLEX IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY, THE LOW THAT
FORCED THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH FOR THE MORNING, SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST AND CREATES ANOTHER PUSH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, KEEPING PWATS
IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0" RANGE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
WHILE SOME OF THE CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CONVECTION BY
THE LATER EVENING, UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW CONVECTION WILL GO. IF
WE CAN CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH, THEN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD RECOVER,
WHICH SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT OWING TO PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONVECTION NOT FORMING UNTIL THE LATER EVENING
HOURS. OTHER MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A STRONG CAP INTO
THE EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT EVEN A DAY OUT THE STORM EVOLUTION
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: CONTINUED STORM POTENTIAL
THE SAME BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SIT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS
TO IMPACT THIS AREA. LOOKING AT LREF CLUSTERING, ALL OF THEM HAVE
ANOTHER DECENT WAVE PEGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND, DETAILS REGARDING EARLY
NEXT WEEK'S STORM POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL BE REFINED
IN THE COMING DAYS.
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY: COOLER AND DRIER
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COOLER AIRMASS SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO STAY
FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER WITH THIS FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY, RAIN CHANCES
COULD INCREASE IF THIS FRONT WERE TO MOVE BACK NORTH. CURRENTLY,
THERE ARE SOME GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SHOWING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FOR THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THEM ARE DRY. THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCE IS LOOKING LIKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE WISCONSIN
AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY JUST
ELEVATED ENOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS STAYING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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