083
FXUS63 KARX 240616
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
116 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED SMOKE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY SURFACE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AND FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL BRING ELEVATED SMOKE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. WHILE ELEVATED SMOKE DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP SURFACE SMOKE FROM MOVING INTO THE DRIFTLESS
AREA. THIS SURFACE SMOKE GETS AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS ABRUPTLY STOPS ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS.
UNLIKE THE PAST 2 MORNINGS, HIGH CLOUDS, DRY DEW POINTS, AND
INCREASING WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER TRIBUTARIES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE
OF THIS SYSTEM, A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL GET AS FAR SOUTH AS EITHER THE
INTERSTATE 90 OR 94 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. WITH LESSENING INSTABILITY DURING THE
NIGHT, KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AS THE 500 MB RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S. CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 35, THE
HEAT INDICES MAY BE AROUND 100.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKING
STRONGER, THERE MIGHT BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. WITH
ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT, THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE
LESSER THREATS.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO
MID-90S. THE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER (RANGING FROM
AROUND 100 TO 105) ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON WHEN THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IF IT
CAN MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OUR PROBABILITIES
WOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. IF IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE
PROBABILITIES WOULD DRAMATICALLY FALL.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID-70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY HAVE INCREASED AND THEY
NOW RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN
THE 90S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 105
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24.06Z TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAR
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