233
FXUS63 KARX 042337
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- OUTSIDE OF THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-94 MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
REST OF TODAY - MONDAY MORNING: AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-25MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH FAVORED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN GIVEN A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925-850HPA WINDS OF 25-30MPH.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY EFFICIENT COOLING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COOLING COMBINED
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LEADS TO A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH AND FALL BELOW THE
37 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANDIER AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE 04.13Z NBM SUGGESTS A 10-20% CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH FREEZING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FROST
ADVISORY DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL.
MONDAY - FRIDAY: MOSTLY DRY, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A 700HPA
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD, PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAVE INCREASED
FOR THOSE NORTH OF I-94. THE 04.00Z LREF DOES HAVE SOME HIGHER
PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SITTING
AROUND 10-30% COMPARED THE THE NBM AT ~10%. THINKING THE REASON
FOR THIS DISCREPANCY IS THE LREF IS LARGELY INFLATED BY ITS EPS
MEMBERSHIP WHICH SUGGESTS DEEPER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE
REGION, RESULTING IN PROBABILITIES NEARING 50% WHEREAS OTHER
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GEFS/GEPS ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND
SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA, KEEPING RAINFALL TO
THE NORTH. TENDING TOWARDS THE NBM SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING,
BUT IF THE SHORTWAVE TRENDS SOUTHWARD OR THE GEFS/GEPS SOLUTIONS
TREND TOWARDS INCREASED MOISTURE, PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY INCREASE.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN FAIRLY
STAGNANT, NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE EXCEPTION ALSO COMES TUESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS
NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING BUILDS IN, BUT FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMAL
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG CURRENTLY
APPEARS UNLIKELY (10-20% CHANCE) AT KLSE DUE TO RELATIVELY
UNFAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
WINDS OVER 10 KTS IN THE LOW-LEVELS PRIOR TO DAWN. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY AT
AROUND 5 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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