756
FXUS63 KARX 261056
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
556 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15 TO 30%) FOR THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES
(50 TO 75%) FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY
FROM QUICK HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT.
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR THURSDAY, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR FRIDAY, THEN
REBOUNDING INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
A CLUSTER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING. AS
THE MORE STOUT MOISTURE MOVES IN LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER REMAINS AROUND 850 MB VIA
BOTH OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH, SHOWERS WILL BE A
BIT HARDER TO COME BY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. IT ISN'T UNTIL THE FRONT MAKES IT TO FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN THAT THE ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CATCHES UP WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT (AROUND 18Z) AND ALLOWS CONVECTION TO BECOME A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED/CAUSES POPS TO INCREASE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WITH MOST PLACES DRY BY 00Z
FRIDAY. NEITHER THE BATCH OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OR THE SHOWERS DOWN IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA LOOK
TO BE PARTICULARLY POTENT QPF-WISE. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25
INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN WITH THE 25.12 LREF AND 26.01 NBM ARE
BETWEEN 30-50% FOR THE CHIMNEY WHERE THE STEADY STREAM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL HELP TOTALS CLIMB A BIT
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THOSE PROBABILITIES DROP TO LESS
THAN 20% FOR THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. TOTALS THERE ARE MORE LIKELY IN THE FEW
HUNDRETHS TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH RANGE.
SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OUT, A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CREATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94 FRIDAY. HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME OF THESE COULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS AS A WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD. POPS ARE
CURRENTLY ON THE LOW SIDE (10-30%), LARGELY DUE TO SPATIAL
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE RATHER NEBULOUS FORCING FOR THE SNOW. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS WOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS LOOKS TO BE A
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM THAT IS OUT OF OUR HAIR BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO STAY DRY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND
ALLOWS FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE REGION. MOST MEMBERS
OF BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENS HAVE RAIN AND MEASURABLE QPF
RETURNING TO THE AREA STARTING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE IT'S A BIT TOO FAR TO GET INTO THE
SPECIFICS ON HOW MUCH RAIN THIS WILL BE OR IF THERE BE
THUNDERSTORMS, THIS DOES LOOK LIKE THE NEXT PROMISING BATCH OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ROLLERCOASTER TEMPERATURES
WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE BEAUTIFUL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY,
WE'LL HAVE TO SAY GOODBYE TO THIS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW, NORTH WINDS WILL RAMP
UP BY THE AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL START TO TAKE HOLD.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STILL BE DECENT IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST
BUT WILL SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY. THANKFULLY,
THIS COLD WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
BY SATURDAY, HELPING OUR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RECOVER. BY SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH
70 DEGREES BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BY MID-WEEK
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S GIVEN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
OTHER THAN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS, TEMPORARY MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA INITIALLY
INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN, SAGGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING. INITIAL, HIGHER (30-60%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH LOCAL TAF SITES (KLSE/KRST) THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING KMDZ/KBCK. SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (20-40%) REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT AVIATION IMPACTS TO ALLEVIATE THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD. STRONG WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, STRONGEST
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A FEW RIVERS ARE STILL SEEING RISES OR ARE STILL RUNNING AT
ELEVATED LEVELS DUE TO THE RAPID SNOW MELT. CURRENTLY THE BLACK
RIVER AT GALESVILLE AND THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH ARE SEEING THESE
ELEVATED LEVELS. BOTH OF THESE SITES ARE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
THESE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
MINIMAL RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...CECAVA
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