418
FXUS63 KARX 151725
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR TO HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS MORNING.
- HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND WILL ORIENTATE ITSELF WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MOVES INTO THIS REGION, THE HOURLY SNOW RATES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 1 TO 4-INCH RANGE. THIS RESULTS IN THE POTENTIAL OF 8 TO AS
HIGH AS 20 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NBM.
MEANWHILE, FURTHER SOUTH, AN 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND, CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE IOWA AND MINNESOTA BORDER, WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. AS THIS
WARM NOSE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. LIKE LAST NIGHT, THIS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AM AND
3 AM. THESE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
A TRACE TO 2 INCHES. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE HIGHEST SLEET
ACCUMULATION WITH A WINTER STORM SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2007. SNOW TOTALS
BETWEEN INTERSTATES 90 AND 94 WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES.
MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE MID- TO LATE MORNING OF
SUNDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID-20S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BRIEF CONCERN, BECAUSE AS THE SURFACE WINDS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW, THE DEW POINTS SHOULD RAPIDLY CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S.
IF THE WINTER WEATHER WAS NOT ENOUGH, THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THAT MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ARE CLIMBING UP TO 1000 J/KG.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 1
HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN IOWA NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PIVOT
SNOW BAND FROM WEST TO EAST TO FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE SREF IS SHOWING THAT THE PROBABILITIES OF 1-INCH SNOW
RATES ARE ONLY UP TO 50 PERCENT. WHILE THE HOURLY RATES WILL BE FAR
LESS, THE SNOW RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA IS INCREASED DUE THE
DEFORMATION BAND THAT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BE LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE MOS CONTINUES TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 60 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A LULL IN SNOW HAS ENSUED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FIRST ROUND
OF SNOW EXITING THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EAST. AS WE HEAD LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
PROBABILITIES IN THE HREF ARE FAIRLY HIGH AT KRST FOR VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO 1/4SM SO HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING PERIOD OF
THIS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. FURTHER EAST, LIFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED AT KLSE DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AS A SECOND ROUND OF
SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THIS COMPLEX WINTER STORM.
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INTO
MONDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS DIMINISH.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ054-055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ041>044-053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ054-055-061.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
IAZ010-011-029-030.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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