344
FXUS63 KARX 130654
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
154 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FIRST OF TWO WINTER STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS ALL OR
PARTS ON TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THERE
WILL BE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH THIS MORNING.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM 3 AM THROUGH 7 AM.
- STORM #2: A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 12-18+ INCHES OF SNOW IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS CURRENTLY LOOK
TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. STRONG WINDS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND LOCALIZED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THIS MORNING - STRONG WINDS
A 987 MB SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND GRADUALLY
FILL. IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA, SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA, AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
50 TO 65 KNOT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (9-10 C/KM) IN THE MIXED LAYER IN
ADDITION STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH. IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA, THE WINDS
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS. LIKE
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA, THERE WILL BE STRONG LAPSE RATES
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF
45 TO 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM.
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THE NBM SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE, SO USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE AND THE HRRR. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS IN
NORTHEAST IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND
WIND ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS TAYLOR AND NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS IN TAYLOR COUNTY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
4 TO 10 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE COUNTY. CLARK COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS BEING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTY.
TOWARD DAY BREAK AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT, WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW SQUALLS. AT THIS TIME, THE
IMPACTS FROM THESE POTENTIAL SQUALLS IS SOMEWHAT COVERED BY THE HIGH
WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING - MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY IN
THE REGION
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A WEST-EAST SNOW
BAND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW MORE CENTERED ON
INTERSTATE 94. JUST SOUTH OF THIS BAND, THERE ARE INDICATIONS
FOR A BAND OF SLEET.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS RESULTS IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST PIVOT. IN ADDITION, A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
PROLONG THE SNOW OVER THE AREA LONGER. THE NBM V5.0 HAS THE
PROBABILITIES OF A FOOT OR GREATER OF SNOW FROM 60 TO 94 PERCENT
NORTH ON AUSTIN MINNESOTA TO THE WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES IS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE PROBABILITIES
FOR 18 INCHES OR MORE RANGES FROM 40 TO 80 PERCENT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. AGAIN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.
THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEY
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN/SNOW WITH STRONG GUSTS OUT OF
THE WEST- NORTHWEST TO 40-50 KNOTS OVER THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS.
OVERNIGHT, SNOW AND IFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT NORTH OF AN EAU-MFI
LINE WHILE SPOTTY RAIN/SNOW MIX AND VFR/MVFR WILL BE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS SE MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. PRECIP SUBSIDES BY
12Z WITH SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE 18Z AND
GUSTS WILL BE ON A SLOW DECREASE BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ029.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ053>055-
061.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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