811
FXUS63 KARX 142322
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
- CANADIAN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (20-40%) DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS RETURNS STARTING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
70, WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100. WHILE VALUES HAVE YET
TO ACTUALLY REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITHIN OUR CWA, PATTERN
ACROSS ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO SHOW MEMBERS SOLIDLY ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY BUT WITHOUT EXTREME OUTLIERS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF ACTUALLY HITTING EVEN ADVISORY CRITERIA, WILL NOT UPGRADE TO
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. BUT, GIVEN THE LONG PERIOD OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
SMOKE LIKELY ARRIVES IN SOME FORM TOMORROW
A TURN TOWARD NORTHERLY WINDS AT 925/850MB LOOKS TO ADVECT SMOKE
FROM THE FIRES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WATERS TO MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THIS MAY BRING VERY SLIGHT RELIEF TO
TEMPERATURES, OUTDOOR HAZARD FROM REDUCED AIR QUALITY IS
POSSIBLE AS 14.06Z HRRR OUTPUT DEPICTS SOME OF THIS SMOKE
SETTLING IN AT THE SURFACE. RELATIVELY STAGNANT AIR MASS
SUGGESTS THAT, SHOULD SMOKE SETTLE IN, IT MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGING THE ONGOING HEAT MOVES TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE REGION. AS
DISTURBANCES EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD, THEY MAY (20-40%) KICK OF
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF CAPE APPEARS PRETTY LIKELY
(70-90% PER 14.00Z LREF) EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT SHEAR
REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. REFLECTING THIS, BOTH GEFS AND ECENS
ML OUTPUT HAVE A BROAD BUT SMALL (5%) CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS TIME, BASED
ON THE PATTERN, WOULD LEAN TOWARD SATURDAY HAVING JUST A BIT
MORE RISK GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A RELATIVELY WEAK (60 KT) UPPER
JET TO ADVANCE OVER THE CWA. IN ANY CASE, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. DUE TO THIS, KEPT
THE BCFG AT THE KLSE TAF BETWEEN 15.10Z AND 15.14Z. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15.24Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ017.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ010-011-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BOYNE
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