094
FXUS63 KARX 221743
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHILE TRANSIENT IN NATURE (1-3 HOURS), ANY
FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE ROADS SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WITH THE ONLY
NOTABLE RISK FOR RAIN COMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT:
A NARROW BAND OF 700-600-MB FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS OF 2 AM AND MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR/RAP SHOW THERMAL PROFILES
TEETERING BETWEEN SUPPORTING SNOW VERSUS FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN DRIVER HINGING ON HOW QUICKLY THE WARM NOSE
AROUND 2 KFT CAN COOL TO THE WET BULB, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW. A MODESTLY DEEP DRY LAYER EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS BAND
AS WELL, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE SOME OF THE
LEADING PRECIPITATE.
NONETHELESS, THE MESOSCALE FORCING IS STRONG AND HAS OVERCOME
THIS DRY AIR. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, SUB-
FREEZING WET BULBS HAVE RESULTING IN SLICK ROADS DEVELOPING
ALONG I-35 AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THIS THREAT FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
LATER THIS EVENING, LONGER RANGE RUNS OF THE CAMS SHOW A SIGNAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND MODEST LIFT JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD PRESENT A SMALL WINDOW FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK:
BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEK, KEEPING POLAR AIR CONFINED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER
DURING ITS TENURE. A PAIR OF WEAK 700-MB RIPPLES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO
WOBBLE LATITUDINALLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST NORTHWARD
PUSH IS ONGOING THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
MORNING WINTRY MIX EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES, PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DESPITE THE SURFACE "COLD FRONT" PASSING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH SIMILAR HIGHS TO
TODAY BEFORE FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
RECOVERS BY THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WOULD REACH FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, BUT THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE
SETTLED ON THE WARMEST AIR RESIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
THAT BEING SAID, NO MATTER HOW ONE SLICES THE FORECAST, HIGHS
LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND
WE COULD BE AT RISK OF SEEING A BROWN CHRISTMAS. THE WARMEST AIR
RETREATS SOUTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IT WON'T BE
UNTIL THE WEEKEND--WHEN RIDGE FINALLY FLATTENS--THAT WE SEE A
NOTABLE COOLING TREND TAKE PLACE.
DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK:
AFTER WE GET THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT
BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN COMING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS
OF THIS PRECIPITATION ARE LESS CLEAR GIVEN THAT THERE IS A
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK, WHICH IS EXPECTED
GIVEN THAT THE WARM FRONT POSITION IS LIKEWISE SINKING FARTHER
SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH AND IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE (10-30%) THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH SOME
MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHERE DRIZZLE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
DRIZZLE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN LIQUID, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FREEZING DROPLETS TOWARDS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PROVIDING FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 OVERNIGHT WHERE BASES MAY REACH IFR. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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