771
FXUS63 KARX 012338
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
538 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE FINAL SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (CENTRAL WI) WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1/2" EXPECTED.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR.
- WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH MORE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY. OVERALL IMPACTS FROM
WEATHER LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AROUND THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY /HIGHS 20S, LOWS SINGLE DIGITS/
WITH A SLOW CREEP UPWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. WARMING ON THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 3 WEEKS!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE COMING IN FROM
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OVER THE LAST HOUR. MNDOT CAMERAS FACING
SOUTH ARE ALSO ICED UP. THIS ALL IS HAPPENING AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH THE SNOW BAND EXITS EAST.
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS FZDZ AND
TO RAISE AWARENESS OF ADDED SLICKNESS ON UNTREATED ROADS. THIS
DOESNT SEEM TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW
PROVIDING A BIT OF A LANDING SPOT FOR THE DRIZZLE (NOT BARE
PAVEMENT) AND ROADS SEEING SOME TREATMENT EARLIER FROM THE
SNOW. SECONDARY, UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE SLICK HOWEVER AND COULD
GLAZE.
IT IS EXPECTED THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT IS INCOMING. PER HRRR
SOUNDINGS, THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN EXTENT TO THE FZDZ ROUGHLY
MSP-DLL IN WI AS THE SATURATED LAYER SHOULD REACH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF GLACIATION (-10 TO -11C) TO SNOW (COLDER AIR
NORTHWESTWARD).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SNOW ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING
RADAR IS SHOWING ONE FINAL BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH,
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN MN AND EASTERN IA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CURL CENTERED NEAR
MSP AT 19Z, WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. VISIBILITIES ARE LOWERING TO AROUND 2
MILES SO WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO IT, A FEW TENTH OF
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE ROADS RECOVERED QUICKLY
ONCE THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOW ENDED THIS MORNING, SO WOULD THINK
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR, A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEK - LITTLE IMPACT
LARGE SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT
SOME PROGRESSION IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK ALLOWING
HEIGHTS TO RISE AND RIDGING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S BY
THURSDAY. THIS TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK SYSTEMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE CHALLENGES TO
PREDICTABILITY THIS WEEK BUT OVERALL WHAT SHOULD BE LITTLE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. TRANSIENT SYSTEMS BRING PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND DIFFERENT
SATURATION WHICH OCCASIONALLY TOYS WITH SUPERCOOLED LIQUID
SATURATED LAYER WITH LITTLE LIFT (FREEZING DRIZZLE?). SEEMS THE
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON WILL BE QUITE SHORT FOR THIS PATTERN.
ONE SYSTEM SHIFTS THROUGH IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW SOMEWHERE AROUND IOWA. THE 01.06Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
INCREASED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 60-80% (24 HOUR)
ON A NW->SE SWATH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA (MCW TO
NORTH OF DVN). HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL MEMBER PLACEMENT OF THE BAND,
WHICH APPEARS FRONTOGENETICAL, VARIES FROM NEAR LA CROSSE TO
DES MOINES. SO, WEAK FORCING AND VARIOUS PLACEMENTS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MAKE THIS A CHALLENGE BUT INTRODUCED SOME SNOW
CHANCES, BUT KEPT THEM LOW (20%). THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SNOW
OF A FEW TENTHS 03-15Z TUESDAY BUT WHERE IS THE QUESTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW.
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN THURSDAY AND WARMS HIGHS INTO
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONGER FORCING
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS MAINLY THROUGH
WI/GREAT LAKES. THE WARM AIR MOVING IN LOOKS TO BE ISOTHERMAL
IN THE LOW-LEVELS IN THE ENSEMBLE SOUNDING PROFILES REVIEWED (NO
LARGE WARM NOSE ALOFT) AND SUGGESTS RA/SN. THE 01.00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE PTYPE NOMOGRAMS ALSO INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES (<10%)
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THIS SYSTEM, AND MAINLY A RA/SN TYPE.
NBM HAS RESOLVED THIS WELL FOR THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (40% IN CENTRAL WI) AND AMOUNTS LOOK VERY
LIGHT AGAIN (<0.10").
WEEKEND OUTLOOK AND TEMPERATURES
PREDICTABILITY TAKES A HIT ON THE WEEKEND FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE BUILDING. LARGE INTERQUARTILE /25-75TH
PERCENTILE/ RANGES OF OVER 12F EXIST...WITH MIN/MAX VALUES FROM
THE TEENS TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS. THURSDAYS SAME INTERQUARTILE
DIFFERENCE IF ONLY 4F, SO DIFFERENCE STARTING FRIDAY AND MAINLY
THE GEFS DEEPER AND COLDER WITH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
TROUGH...WHICH THE LOCAL AREA IS INFLUENCED BY. FOR NOW, MINOR
TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST AND STUCK WITH
THE NATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH NEAR NORMAL, OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE, TEMPERATURES. BUT, THERE IS BIG BOOM TEMPERATURE
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE RIDGE BUILD IN STRONGER (40S FOR HIGHS).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS EXITED SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AND
CONTINUES FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND
THIS SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 3
HOURS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER IN
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SO WE SHALL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND
IF IT DOES, THIS WOULD MEAN A LONGER PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
REMAIN IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. MVFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH ALL LOCATIONS HAVING NORTHWEST WINDS BY MIDNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
DISCUSSION...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...CECAVA
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