116
FXUS63 KARX 170512
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1212 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING TONIGHT AND
THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS ANTICIPATED.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY: COLD START TO THE DAY - BREEZY WIND THIS AFTERNOON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE VERY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS ARE ONGOING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 20S. IN FACT, FREEZING TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA, MOST
NOTABLY IN THE KNOWN COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD FALL TO AT LEAST FREEZING THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ESSENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THIS
YEAR.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD RESULT OVER THE DRIFTLESS
REGION. THE SUSTAINED WIND THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP
TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN
WARMER AIR, BUT DUE TO THE COLD START TO THE DAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE BACK UP ABOVE AVERAGE AND FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND ON SUNDAY, THE WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WORK WEEK. OVERALL, A VERY NICE,
LATE OCTOBER WEEK IS FORECAST FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE
AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE (50% OR HIGHER) OF REACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-
WIDE BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IF THESE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE TO PAN OUT, THEY WOULD ROUGHLY BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
25 KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. VALLEY FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT GIVEN FAIRLY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THIS EVENING AND SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF THE DECK. HOWEVER, WILL
MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES IN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THEIR DEWPOINT
FASTER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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