164
FXUS63 KARX 092359
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT.
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WARM UP
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 70%) RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
TODAY-MONDAY: MILD AND MOSTLY DRY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMES OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. PWATS SHOW
HOW DRY IT IS AS THEY STAY IN THE 0.2 TO 0.35" RANGE. DESPITE THE
REGION BEING IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH HOW DRY THE ATMOSPHERE IS THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE BEING UNDER THE
TROUGH, COOLER AIR CONTINUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY MOSTLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS
A RESULT OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS, AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROST HEADLINES ARE OUT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-94. IF COOLER TEMPERATURES OCCUR DUE TO THE CLEARER SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS, MORE COUNTIES MAY BE ADDED TO THE FROST ADVISORY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OVER MORE OF THE CWA
WHICH MEANS THAT MORE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY: PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGING PUSHES INTO
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES FAVOR THIS
SOLUTION AS MOST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW EITHER A RIDGE OR A ZONAL
PATTERN OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THIS SHIFT, A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES (40 TO 70%). WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH, NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH IT. THE LATEST LREF
25TH TO 75TH 24 HOUR QPF PERCENTILES HAVE ROUGHLY 0.05" TO 0.4"
POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WISCONSIN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN, LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OCCUR FOR MIDWEEK. THE NEXT RAIN
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES UP INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COOLER DUE TO SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FROM TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM UP
INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH 80S ENTERING THE FRAME
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 10.00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD USHER IN MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
CURRENT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (<10%).
SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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