986
FXUS63 KARX 220851
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
251 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP UNDER -35 AND POTENTIALLY (10-60%) NEAR -50.
VALUES UNDER -35 ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY (20-70%) AND MONDAY
(5-45%) MORNINGS, WHILE VALUES IN THE -25 TO -35 RANGE ARE
PROBABLE (30-85%) FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
- POTENTIAL (30%) FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IMPACTFUL (3"+) SNOW SHOULD (99%) REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
COLD AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION TODAY AS A STOUT (MEAN OF 1053MB PER
22.00Z HREF) SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH THIS
FEATURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
OUR CWA WILL DRIVE A 10-20 MPH BREEZE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S BELOW ZERO, DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS UNDER -35 WILL DEVELOP
WITH A CHANCE (10-60% PER 22.00Z HREF, HIGHEST IN CLARK/TAYLOR
COUNTIES) TO REACH -50. NEEDLESS TO SAY, HAVE RETAINED THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
HAZARDOUS COLD CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURE BOTTOMS
OUT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
REGION, LEADING TO CONDITIONS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LIGHT WINDS IN THIS REGIME FAVOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES JUST
A BIT BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE, WITH VALUES UNDER -25 VERY LIKELY
(70-100% PER 22.00Z REFS AND 21.12Z LREF) WITH REACHING -35 A
TOUGHER PROPOSITION (20-70% PER 22.00Z REFS, HIGHEST CHANCE IN
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES). GIVEN THESE PROBABILITIES, HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS, WHILE
AN ADVISORY IS GOING TO BE NEEDED, MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA AND DO
NOT WANT TO GIVE AN INCORRECT IMPRESSION THAT EXTREME CONDITIONS
WILL FAIL TO DEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAY SEE CLOUD COVER LIMIT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FALLS. WITHOUT MUCH OF A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THUS WIND, IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REACH -35 (5-45%
CHANCE PER 21.12Z LREF). HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED TO NOT EXTEND THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH BEYOND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID, HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROBABLE (30-85% CHANCE TO REACH -25), SO
EVENTUAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE EXPLORED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO GENERALLY MODERATE MONDAY ONWARD BUT
SUBZERO LOWS ARE STILL PROBABLE (35-75%) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND
22.07Z RAP SOUNDING SUGGEST OCCASIONAL SATURATION WILL OCCUR AT THE
TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS LAYER
WELL BELOW VALUES NEEDED TO PRODUCE ICE CRYSTALS. WITH SOME MODEST
LIFT POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD, COULD GET A
FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOVING AHEAD TO THIS WEEKEND, LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OVER THE
CWA FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FAVORED TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND LEAD TO A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE SE CONUS NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THE 22.00Z LREF PROBABILITY TO REACH IMPACTFUL (3")
SNOW HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 1% IN OUR FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD, AS MODEST
LIFT FROM THE UPPER WAVE OCCURS, COULD GET SOME FLURRIES OUT OF ANY
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE INCOMING COLD AIR INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO LIKELY AS LOW
LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS WITHIN INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SPECIFYING EXACT LOCATION OF ACCOMPANYING VISIBILITY IMPACTS
WILL BE FUTURE FORECAST CHALLENGE AND CONCERN AS CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LIMITED MOISTURE LIMITS ANY ACCUMULATIONS AND
DURATION IN ANY ONE LOCATION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ096.
IA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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