709
FXUS63 KARX 042354
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
654 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NEW WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES COMING MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS CRATER INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- SEVERAL PASSING SHOTS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY, WITH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE
MOSTLY DRY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING OFF AND
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GENERAL SETUP DOESN'T
OVERLY FAVOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WE SAW OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS, BUT COULD STILL AFFECT RIVER LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TONIGHT: SNOW SHOWERS LINGER
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONE TRACKING
ACROSS NORTH-CETNRAL WISCONSIN AND RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING
IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE CONTINUED DIFFERENTIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING SHOULD
SUSTAIN SOME OF THE ONGOING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PAST SUNSET, WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SLOWLY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
OF 2-4 MILES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS,
BUT THESE HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT IN NATURE.
SUNDAY: SLIGHTLY WARMER, RAIN SHOWERS LATE
A DOWNSLOPE-MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS
THE MID TO LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
AIRMASS CLIPS THE FORECAST AREA, BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
CLOSER TO AVERAGE (LOW TO MID 50S). HOWEVER, THIS WARM SPELL WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH
SNOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN IF PROFILES CAN COOL FAST ENOUGH.
THERE SHOULD BE NO IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN/SNOW ON THE ONGOING
FLOODING (RAINFALL OF <0.10"), BUT SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK THROUGH LATE WEEK:
OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE NEW WEEK IS EXPECTED, ALLOWING
AREA RIVERS TO RECOVER FROM 3"+ PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE LAST
48 HOURS AND ONGOING RIVER FLOODING IN SPOTS. SUBSEQUENT MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A CANADIAN ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW PHASES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
ADVECTING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITHIN A TIGHTENING WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR LOCAL
IMPACTS INITIALLY REMAINS MINIMAL UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK AS
THE QUASI-ZONAL BOUNDARY GETS ABANDONED ON OUR SOUTHERN
DOORSTEP. SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE RESURGENCES PROVIDE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY
INITIALLY THURSDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS WINS OUT SLOWLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY & SATURDAY.
HEAVY RAIN CONCERN GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING GIVEN CURRENT STATE OF SWOLLEN TO FLOODED RIVERS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT LREF (04.00Z) CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH 0.25" SPREAD WITHIN MEMBERS AND LITTLE AGREEMENT IN
LOCATION BETWEEN MEMBERS.
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK:
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS GLANCES THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH MINIMUM PERCENTILE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
(SPC MPX RAOB CLIMATOLOGY) MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE RESULTANT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10+ DEGREES WARMER THAN COLD RECORDS
AT LA CROSSE, WI AND ROCHESTER, MN, APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DEPENDING ON WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A MIX OF LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE FOUND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING MORE PREVLANT AS
WE MOVE TOWARDS 03-06Z. THESE CEILINGS LOOK TO BREAK AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MANY LOCALES SOUTH OF AN
EAU TO ISW LINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND COULD
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
10-15KTS, GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS OVERNIGHT AND 15-20KTS FOR THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AFTER WIDESPREAD 1-3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AREA RIVERS HAVE SEEN
INCREASED FLOWS, SOME OF WHICH HAVE CLIMBED INTO FLOOD STAGE.
THE MAIN BASIN OF CONCERN HAS BEEN THE KICKAPOO RIVER, WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN FELL. AS THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY FLASHY
BASIN, IT'S NOT A HUGE SURPRISE THAT IT QUICKLY JUMPED INTO
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING TO NEARLY 20 FT.
FORTUNATELY, AS QUICKLY AS IT JUMPED UP IT HAS ALREADY COME BACK
DOWN TO BELOW ACTION STAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (12.52 FT AS OF
2 PM). THIS JUMP TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE LEAD TO SOME ROAD
CLOSURES IN VERNON/MONROE COUNTIES AROUND ONTARIO WHERE MANY
FEEDER STREAMS COME IN TO THE KICKAPOO. THIS WAVE OF WATER IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE RIVER OVER THE COMING DAY(S)
WITH MOST OTHER SITES DOWNSTREAM EXPECTED TO GO INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
ROADS ACROSS VERNON COUNTY THAT ARE CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
THEM FROM FLOODED CREEKS/RIVERS, ESPECIALLY IN CHASEBURG ALONG
THE COON CREEK. WATER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THOUGH
IMPACTS FROM DEBRIS LEFT BEHIND MIGHT LINGER.
OTHER RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE TURKEY RIVER IN IOWA, THE YELLOW
RIVER IN NECEDAH, AND THE BLACK RIVER AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. ALL
OF THESE LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SEEING OR EXPECTED TO GO INTO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE IN THE COMING HOURS/DAYS. WHILE A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ANY ADDITIONAL QPF WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION DOESN'T LOOK TO COME UNTIL MID-
NEXT WEEK.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR/SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...BARENDSE
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