982
FXUS63 KARX 261128
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
628 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S SLIGHTLY INCREASING FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INITIALLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT CONFIDENCE
REGARDING STORM STRENGTH AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW (<15%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY:
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOPS WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, STRONGEST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND LOW (10-25%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LOCALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH STRONGEST CAA.
MINIMAL PROGRESSION IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK PERPETUATES APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THROUGH THURSDAY, BREACHING THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW RAMPS UP HEAT AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION & STORM CHANCES:
ACCORDING TO LONGER RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, PASSING PERTURBATIONS
INITIALLY FRIDAY CONTEND AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RESIDUAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WEAKENING MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AS IT NEARS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE TRENDED EARLIER FOR INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GEFS SOLUTION
REMAINS MORE BOISTEROUS AND SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE EPS DUE TO
A MORE SOUTHERN, STRONGER SOLUTION TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WIDE SPREAD IN SYNOPTIC
SOLUTIONS LEAVES LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN STORM AND SEVERE THREAT
LOCALLY, EVIDENT IN INTER/INTRAENSEMBLE SBCAPE/MUCAPE SPREAD OF
0 TO 4500 J/KG LOCALLY IN BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW (10 PERCENT OR
LESS) CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. THE
WIND TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20-25 KTS. THE WIND WILL DECREASE NEAR SUNRISE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...MUSCHA
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