796
FXUS63 KARX 260545
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRAZE LOCAL COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
- POTENTIAL (40-80%) FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO/THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH SPREAD IN MODELS
ATTRIBUTED TO QUESTIONS REGARDING OVERALL FORCING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
- LOW CONFIDENCE (30-50%) IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRAZE FORECAST AREA:
A PERSISTENT FORECAST EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL
GRAZING WESTERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES DERIVED
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DEPICT LOCAL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, CAUSING A SHIELD OF LIMITED RETURNS ON MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WHILE RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS
SUGGEST THE HIGHER VALUE REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, A MORE MERIDIONAL ASPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN (I.E., RIDGING) EXPECTED TO LIMIT LOCAL MEASURABLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION WILL BE DELAYING INEVITABLE
CYCLOLYSIS AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA, LIMITING LOCAL
COVERAGE IN HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED COVERAGE OF HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT
BUT WILL BE A CLOSE FORECAST DETAIL TO MONITOR EVEN THOUGH OVERALL
IMPACT IS LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECIPTIATION CHANCES:
THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOW IMPACT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL UPSTREAM STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE JOINING THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST AND EVENTUALLY
ADVECTING EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MIDWEEK. WHILE
INTER-LREF MEMBER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, INTRA-MEMBER AND
PROBABILISTIC/DETERMINISTIC SPREAD IS CURIOUS SPECIFICALLY WITHIN THE
EPS.
APPEARS AMOUNT OF LOCAL MOISTURE REMAINS THE DISCERNING FACTOR DUE
TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK
AS WELL AS A SUBSEQUENT, WELL-UPSTREAM WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
REFINING DIRECTION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SOLUTIONS
(EPS/ECMWF 25.00/25.12Z) RESULTS IN 0.5"+ OF RAINFALL PRIMARILY FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOCALLY WHILE MOST
OTHER SOLUTIONS ABSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 0.1"-0.2". ABOVE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES KEEP OVERALL IMPACTS MINIMAL ALTHOUGH
SOILS COULD BENEFIT FROM THE QUENCHING SATURATION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE WILL BE ON A WEAKENING,
DECREASING TREND, LOWERING CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH, RECENT LREF TRENDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASING CERTAINTY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
CONFIDENCE IN WEEKEND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEAKENED COMPARE TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF NBM POPS BY 10-25%,
NEARING 60% IN SPOTS. AN APPENDAGE TO THE SYNOPTIC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST AND NORTH AS LREF
MEMBERS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SLIGHT ROLE REVERSAL BETWEEN
THE EPS AND GEFS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE EPS NOW SUGGESTING
A STRONGER LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-8K RANGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY (RECORD/FORECAST):
LA CROSSE, WI
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/28 75F (1945) / 73F 57F (1881) / 56F
ROCHESTER, MN
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/28 73F (2024) / 71F 54F (1989) / 54F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
CLIMATE...JAR
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