188
FXUS63 KARX 021855
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
155 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY FOR THOSE ALONG I-90 AND SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE (30-60%).
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WIND, BUT A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST EACH DAY, THOUGH POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST ON INDEPENDENCE DAY (50-80%). ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF OF 1+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(10-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - FRIDAY MORNING: SEVERE, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAID OUT WEST-EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY CATALYST FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LAST NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THIS IS
NO DIFFERENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. AT RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A
BROKEN RECORD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THESE FORCINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT IS
LOW.
OF GREATEST CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 12
PM CDT RESULTING IN FLOODED ROADWAYS AND STREAMS. THE 02.12Z REFS
SUGGESTS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER, BUT DOES
EXTEND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO IOWA
TOWARDS DUBUQUE. THE 02.12Z REFS/HREF LPMM ALSO SUGGEST SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF UP TO 5 INCHES MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL RIVER AND
STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF RAIN OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POTENTIAL.
TRANSITIONING AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL, STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 2500-3500 J/KG OF SBCAPE EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PROFILES EXCEEDING 40KTS. GIVEN HIGH
PWAT VALUES AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW, THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 70-90 M2/S2 AND
SURFACE VORTICITY INGESTION FROM THE BOUNDARY SPANNING THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS A LOWER THREAT GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT, BUT ALSO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IN SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP.
STORMS LOOK TO EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A BIT OF A LULL
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS VARIOUS CAM GUIDANCE
PROVIDES A MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID, AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THE 02.12Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
THOUGH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SITUATED SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY RELY ON HOW THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT. THAT SAID, OUR AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED
IN A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE SPC.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND - NEXT WEEK: WET THEN DRIER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY ULTIMATELY END UP DRY DEPENDING ON HOW THE
MORNING GOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION,
FORCING SHORTWAVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. SEVERAL OF THE CAM
SOLUTIONS FAIL TO CONVECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
02.12Z HRRR/RAP DO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS A SHORTWAVE SINKS INTO THE REGION ON TOP OF THE
RIDGE, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
INDEPENDENCE DAY SEES FAR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAVERSES OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE (50-80%).
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
SUGGEST THAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE A DRY COUPLE
OF DAYS (KNOCK ON WOOD) AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE
GREATEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90. A BIT OF A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY FROM 06Z-12Z, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE A BIT IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF STORMS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 3-5 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER LAST NIGHT INTO TODAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 7 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT (30-60%)
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 PER THE 02.12Z REFS/HREF. THE
02.12Z REFS/HREF LPMM EVEN SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES COULD
OCCUR. AREAS THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WILL BE AT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS
AND AS SUCH A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES
GENERALLY ALONG I-90 AND SOUTH.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ041-042-053>055-061.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ087-088-094>096.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-
030.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
HYDROLOGY...FALKINHAM
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