433
FXUS63 KARX 140511
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM -20 TO -35 OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, THE ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL COVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 30S.
- SUBSEQUENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPTIATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF
A WINTRY MIX WITH NO PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RULED OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
COLD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
FREEZING TEMPERATURES PROGRESSED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER AND THE CHATTOOGA/TUGALOO RIVER
VALLEYS ALONG THE SC/GA BORDER THIS MORNING. THE ANOMALOUS COLD
SEEN LOCALLY IN SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OFF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACARS, 12Z RAOBS,
AND POES/GOES PAINT THE COLLOCATED LOW LEVEL MINIMA, NEAR
RECORD ANOMALOUS -20C ISOTHERM AT 925MB, FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WISCONSIN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
THIS MAIN VEIN OF ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WRAPPED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PERPETUATES
UPSTREAM TROUGHING.
A SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST COAST ON GOES WV
IMAGERY RETURNS /MORE/ NORMAL, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOL STILL
YET, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAMPS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING, A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL
ISOHEIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS, PERSISTING
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, CONFIDENCE IN COLDEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO LOCALLY TONIGHT DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIRMASS. EXIT OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY CONCURRENT WITH PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS KEEPING WIND SPEEDS LOW KEEPS CONFIDENCE FOR ENDING
ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HIGH. CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE ZERO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN HREF INCREASES THROUGH SUNDAY,
MAXIMIZING FROM 40-80% DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LREF CLUSTER
ANALYSIS HAS CONTINUED AGREEMENT FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
GLANCING SYNOPTIC LOWS WAVERING EAST/SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER MEAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT
OR AREA WIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS
MINIMAL, <15%. REGARDLESS, THE PASSING LOWS INCREASE LOCAL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF SUBSEQUENT SYNOPTIC CYCLOGENESIS INITIATED
FROM REMNANTS OF EARLY WEEK RE-INTENSIFICATION TO THE ONGOING
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. RESULTANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS A QUASI- ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN CLUSTERS AND
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES WILL UNDERGO QUICK CHANGES TO CAUSE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IN
LOW TRACKS IS VAST DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN EXIT BEHAVIOR OF EARLY
WEEK LOW TRACKS AND VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE SUBSEQUENT
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK INTENSIFICATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
CIGS: MOSTLY SKC/SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL VFR DECK LATE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WX/VSBY: NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS: NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY 18Z SUN. WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z, SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS AT KRST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. NOTE - WINDS COULD
PUSH 22050KTS AT 2 KFT LATER SUN NIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ054-055-
061.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ079-
086>088-094>096.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ008>011-
018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION.....RIECK
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