158  
FXUS63 KARX 301806  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
105 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, SEVERE  
NOT EXPECTED.  
 
- DRY TUESDAY!!!  
 
- 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHAPING UP TO BE "ACTIVE" - MORESO FOR  
THE START. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MOVE IN LATER FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.  
FIREWORKS COULD BE IMPACTED FOR SOME. SUN IS TRENDING DRY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
> AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO MID EVENING  
 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
MN THIS AFTERNOON (PER WATERVAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY), SPINNING  
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI BY 00Z. RAP BUILDS AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG OF  
SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WHILE ALSO SHOWING A BIT OF A PUSH  
FROM A SOUTHEAST RUNNING 850 MB JET, NOSING INTO SE MN BY 00Z. SHEAR  
LIKELY NOT A PLAYER LOCALLY, MOSTLY IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER BUT LIKELY  
DISPLACED AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TO  
PUSH IN/POP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON (3-5 PM), TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND  
EXITING THE LOCAL AREA BY 8-9 PM (IF LATEST HRRR HOLDS TRUE). NOT  
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
> TUESDAY: SHAPING UP DRY! HOPEFULLY WE DIDN'T JINX IT...  
 
A SFC HIGH WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HANGING WEST ACROSS THE  
ROCKIES. THE SETUP FAVORS KEEPING ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW  
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA - WITH THE PROMISE OF A DRY DAY. PROBABLY  
GOING TO HEAR A LOT OF LAWN MOWERS.  
 
> WED INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: SMATTERING OF RAIN CHANCES INTO FRI,  
GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.  
 
THE GEFS AND EPS TAKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST, SLIDING OVER THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN THREAT  
STILL EXISTS AS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, MCVS, LINGERING SFC  
BOUNDARIES ETC COULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH 'UMPH' TO THE SUMMERY  
ATMOSPHERE TO POP SOME CONVECTION. WHERE/WHEN/IF SHOWERS/STORMS  
MANIFEST INTO FRIDAY ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN - ALTHOUGH THE EPS/GEFS  
MEMBERS FAVOR KEEPING MUCH OF THIS THREAT NORTH OF I-90.  
 
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE ACTIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SAT. NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN MOST OF  
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (WHICH THE WPC CLUSTERS ALSO SUGGEST), AND  
COULD SHIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL  
REFLECT AT THE SFC AND SLIP ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING INSTABILITY  
AND INCREASING MOISTURE/TRANSPORT PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR  
STORMS. WIND SHEAR FAIRLY MEAGER AT THIS TIME - LIMITING A SEVERE  
RISK. AS OF NOW, LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT HARBORS THE HIGHER RAIN  
CHANCES - WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THE 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS  
FOR SOME.  
 
SUNDAY IS TRENDING DRY.  
 
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND (WHICH IS PROBABLY A  
MAJORITY OF US) WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AS WE  
MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
SCTVBKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 10KFT OR ABOVE CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS, SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON (20-30%), BUT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
IN COVERAGE SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING IF/WHEN THEY WOULD IMPACT  
EITHER TAF SITE. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
BETWEEN 21-02Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD, GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. SKY CONDITION OF SKC TO FEW IS EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION...FALKINHAM  
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