119
FXUS63 KARX 051031
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
531 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN DECREASING.
- A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO CRACK 100 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TODAY: ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. HAVING BEEN SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTH BY YESTERDAY'S STORMS AND SURFACE FLOW TUNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS LITTLE IMPETUS FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK NORTH OF I-80 TODAY. RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION--BOTH TO THE SOUTH/EAST AND
WEST, COULD STUNT DAYTIME SOLAR INSOLATION--THOUGH WE SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH, THE
MAIN KEY WE ARE NOT WELL RESOLVING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
A TRIGGER. FORECAST PROFILES FROM THE HRRR/RAP SHOW 1000-1500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH MINIMAL MLCIN AND LINEAR HODOGRAPHS THAT
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES (POSSIBLY EVEN
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE). HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A VERY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FROM THE OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. THIS
POINTS TO THE MODEL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A FORCING MECHANISM.
WITH RESIDUAL PERTURBATIONS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF OUR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
COLD POOLS TRIGGERING DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION, THE TIMING AND
LOCATIONS FOR STORMS REMAINS A TOUGH ITEM TO PIN DOWN.
AS NOTED EARLIER, THE LINEAR HODOGRAPH COULD SUPPORT CELL
ORGANIZATION AND EVEN CELL SPLITTING. THIS KEEPS HAIL ON THE
TABLE, IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLS BECOME ORGANIZED. BOTTOM LINE, WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MORE CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED IN NATURE, WE CANNOT FULLY
RULE OUT A ROUGE SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON IF THINGS LINE UP
JUST RIGHT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: WARM WITH MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING
IN ON THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE DRY CONDITIONS WON'T LAST FOR TOO
LONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE BUT OVERALL WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE TIED
TO THIS THAT WILL SURGE NORTH INTO MONDAY (AND YES THIS DOES
MEAN HIGHER DEW POINTS...). FORECAST PWATS BY EARLY MONDAY WILL
BE IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE OR THE 95-99TH PERCENTILE IN BOTH THE
EC AND NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS WILL BE SOME ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO
SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL MONDAY, PROMPTING WPC TO INCLUDE OUR
AREA IN THEIR MARGINAL RISK FOR THE DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK. THE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE LACK OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER WAVE WILL MEAN THAT SHEAR WILL BE LACKLUSTER AND THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS THIS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE LOW. BUT WITH THIS HUMIDITY, WILL ALSO COME SOME
MORE HEAT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL
STILL BE TOLERABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT DEW POINTS WILL
BE ON THE UPTICK INTO THE UPPER 60S THE LATER WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND SO ENJOY THEM WHILE THEY'RE STILL LOW.
TUESDAY - END OF NEXT WEEK: TRENDING HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS MAKING ITS DEBUT ACROSS THE DRIFTLESS
REGION NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES FINALLY CRACK THAT 90 DEGREE
THRESHOLD AREAWIDE. A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
START CLIMBING. NBM HIGHS BY LATE NEXT WEEK ARE JUMPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH AND LIKELY A
SIGN OF THE WARM- DRY BIAS BUT IT MAY NOT BE HORRIBLY
UNREASONABLE ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, HEAT INDICES ARE GOING TO DEFINITELY
BE FLIRTING WITH AND LIKELY SURPASSING THAT TRIPLE DIGIT
THRESHOLD - WHICH MEANS WE MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HEAT
HEADLINES IN THE NOT SO DISTANT FUTURE. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THAT FORCING WILL BE RATHER NEBULOUS AND COMING FROM
SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS, PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT IS VERY
LOW SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD-BRUSHED BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
POPS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
IFR TO LIFR FOG AND STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE WAKE
OF OUR DEPARTING SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
BY 13-15Z. THE 15-20Z PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE FOR AVIATION
IMPACTS BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS START TO MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST, DEPARTING BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE/SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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