556
FXUS63 KARX 121104
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTS OF 55 MPH PROBABLE WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI.
- SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29. DUE TO
THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, THIS MAY LEAD TO SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN UNSHELTERED AREAS OF TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES.
- A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS SHAPING UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-95%) IN A BAND OF 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES (30-40% CHANCE). THE
BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
SETS UP. THIS HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT MAY LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL AT TIMES DURING
THIS STORM.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS
12.06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD STRONGEST GUSTS
OCCURRING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI, WITH A 50-95% CHANCE FOR A 55
MPH GUST TO OCCUR AT SOME POINT AFTER 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 1 PM
TOMORROW PER 12.06Z REFS. THIS IS BROADLY IN LINE WITH THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH SEES A 80/65/55KT 700/850/925MB JET OVER
NE IA AND SE MN IN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF
AROUND 2 MB/HR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN LEFT IN TACT.
AS FOR SNOW, WHILE 12.06Z REFS AND 12.00Z HREF HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD AROUND A 20% AND 40% CHANCE TO REACH 6" IN TAYLOR COUNTY,
RESPECTIVELY, WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FAVORED, SHOULD STILL
SEE SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN UNSHELTERED AREAS. GIVEN
TERRAIN AND TREE COVER CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS COUNTY, HAVE
CONTINUED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING. THAT SAID, GIVEN
THE VERY GOOD (90%) CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 35 MPH GUSTS AS THE
SNOW FALLS, THESE LAND COVER CHARACTERISTICS ARE ABOUT THE ONLY
THING KEEPING A CHECK ON SWITCHING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE THIS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
FINALLY, ONLY NOTABLE POINT OF POTENTIAL DEVIATION FROM THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PROGGED 12.06Z NAM/HRRR/RAP DO DEPICT THE DGZ DRYING
OUT WHILE A LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED WATER MAY HOLD ON BETWEEN
800-900 MB. WITH A BIT OF LIFT OCCURRING AS THE LAST GASP OF THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST, CANNOT RULE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE,
PARTICULARLY IF HRRR CLOUD DEPTH COMES TO PASS. THAT SAID,
NAM AND 12.00Z GFS DEPICT A SHALLOWER SATURATED LAYER WITH A DRIER
SUBCLOUD LAYER WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE WITHOUT EVAPORATING. FOR NOW,
HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MORE RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY IS SEEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING - STRONG WINDS AREAWIDE, SNOW IN
CENTRAL WI
THE 11.00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA INTO
MICHIGAN. AS THIS OCCURS, RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AS
IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EITHER UPPER
MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AS THIS OCCURS, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW 45 TO 60 KNOTS ON TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WHICH EXTENDS UP TO
AROUND 800 MB. THESE WINDS ARE THEN TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE DUE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES (9-10 C/KM) IN THE MIXED LAYER. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS THE NBM WIND GUSTS LOOKED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE, SO USED A 50
50 BLEND OF THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND THE HRRR. THIS RESULTED IN
WIND ADVISORY WINDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
AS WARM AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94, A
SNOW/WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN.
MEANWHILE, TAYLOR COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CLARK COUNTY ARE
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN SNOW. TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO
5 INCH RANGE BUT, GIVEN IMPACTS IN UNSHELTERED AREAS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW, HAVE LEANED UPWARD TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
TAYLOR COUNTY AND, WHERE SNOW IS COMPARATIVELY LESS FAVORED, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK COUNTY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY - POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR WINTER STORM
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A
SURFACE LOW NEAR KANSAS CITY ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARD MICHIANA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND TOWARD GEORGIAN BAY OR
NORTHERN THUMB AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY SNOW BAND INITIALLY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS BAND PIVOTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND THEN
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TRAILING DEFORMATION BAND.
LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS NBM SNOW PROBABILITIES, 6 INCHES HAS ANYWHERE
FROM A 50-100 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, 12 INCHES HAS ANYWHERE
FROM 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, AND 18 INCHES HAS
ANYWHERE FROM A 30 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS.
STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND STRENGTHENING WINDS, THERE COULD
BE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. IF THIS SYSTEM ENDS UP BEING
STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TO MVFR TO DUE TO IMPENDING STRATUS
AND, FOR MOST OF THE AREA, LIGHT RAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS NORTHEAST OF EAU-MFI LINE WHERE SNOW WILL MIX IN. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TURNING CLOCKWISE TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY, WHEN GUSTS TO 40-50 KNOTS ARE
PROBABLE, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR WIZ017.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
FRIDAY FOR WIZ029.
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
UPDATE...FERGUSON
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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