650
FXUS63 KARX 011707
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1207 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE WINTRY MIX UNTIL THIS EVENING. THIS
LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS MORE.
- THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
THIS EVENING AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THIS WILL
LIKLEY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AS A RESULT, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
- ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5 RISK) BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER.
- WEEKEND SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN ON FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MORE
WINTRY WEATHER SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON
THE 01.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AIR MASS
BELOW 600 MB IS MUCH DRIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY DOING THIS, THE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR FOR THIS SYSTEM.
DUE TO THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND MORE CLOUD COVER, WENT WITH THE COOLER
CONSSHORT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
THIS EVENING
THE LAYER BELOW 700 MB WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE. AS THIS OCCURS,
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM IS ONLY THERE FOR
MAYBE UP TO 2 HOURS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT, SNOW TOTALS
CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER IN THESE AREAS. AS A RESULT, WE ARE ONLY
LOOKING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE NORTH OF
WISCONSIN 29 IN TAYLOR COUNTY. ONCE THE SNOW ENDS, IT WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION INTO SLEET FOR 1 TO 4 HOURS AS THE WARM NOSE
CUTS OF THE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR THE WATER DROPLETS TO FREEZE. ICING TOTALS
WILL LIKELY UP TO 0.05 INCHES.
FURTHER SOUTH, BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT BRIEFLY AS SLEET OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS A
RESULT, ICING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ELSEWHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. RAIN TOTALS WILL
LIKELY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
OVERNIGHT
THE WARM NOSE WILL CONTINUE WARM AND GROW IN DEPTH NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN. ADDITIONAL ICING AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A TENTH
TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH. WITH IT BEING NIGHT, THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BUILD ON ALL OBJECTS. WITH A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN, DECIDED TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING. CONSIDERED AN ICE STORM WARNING, BUT WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION HELD OFF FOR NOW.
FURTHER SOUTH BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 90 AND 94 CORRIDORS, THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AS THE WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO WARM AND ITS DEPTH INCREASES, THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GRADUALLY WARM AS THE COLD LAYER
DECREASES. AS A RESULT, THINKING THAT THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD START
TO TRANSITION TO RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. DUE TO ICING
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH, OPTED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY JUST SOUTH OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
ELSEWHERE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WARM NOSE
CONTINUE TO GROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO MORE RAIN. IN ADDITION, THE IMPACTS OF THE ICING
WILL BE TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD ELEVATED OBJECTS. AS INFRARED
RADIATION FROM THE SUN (EVEN THROUGH THE THICK CLOUDS) SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO WARM THESE SURFACES SUFFICIENTLY THAT THEY SHOULD
BECOME ICE FREE AND THE MORNING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONAL ICING
WILL LIKELY BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
BETWEEN INTERSTATES 90 AND 94, THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL HAVE
EITHER ENDED OR WILL END SHORTLY AFTER DAWN AS WARM AIR ALOFT IS
BROUGHT DOWN FROM ALOFT BY THE RAIN. ADDITIONAL ICING WILL LIKELY BE
JUST A GLAZE IF IT OCCURS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MISSOURI INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THERE SHOULD BE SOME AIR MASS
RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE THIS RECOVERY. THE 0-1
KM SRH ARE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 150-300 M2/S2 IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES
(POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT) ASSUMING ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED. OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS.
WEEKEND STORM BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND
THEN SHIFT TOWARDS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BY SATURDAY EVENING AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1.0". WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, IN THE 90 TO 97.5 PERCENTILES, PWATS,
INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
INCREASES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD. WARM SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS TO WARM US UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S FOR
FRIDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE THE 30S TO LOW 40S. DEPENDING ON HOW COLD
THE AIR IS BEHIND THE LOW, TEMPERATURES COULD DIP A FEW MORE
DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS DROPPING QUICKLY TO IFR AS IT MOVES IN. FROM THERE, CIGS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IFR TO POTENTIALLY HIGH-END LIFR THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES DECREASING TO BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR FROM THE PRECIPITATION. KLSE WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS IT'S DOWN IN THE VALLEY BUT KRST COULD SEE SOME
WAVERING BETWEEN PRECIPITATION TYPES. CURRENT BEST GUESSES ARE
BETWEEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SO WILL STICK WITH THAT IN THIS
PACKAGE WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS LIKELY WITH UPDATES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF A GENERAL EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND
NOON AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
PROBABILITIES INDICATE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH THE WED NIGHT AND THU SYSTEM. MANY OF THE RIVER BASINS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TOLERATE 2" OF RAIN WITH WITHIN BANK RISES PER THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER RIVER ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. HOWEVER, SHOULD MORE THAN
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL (15-25% CHANCE), MINOR FLOOD STAGE COULD
BE REACHED ON MULTIPLE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDING THE KICKAPOO,
TREMPEALEAU, AND YELLOW. 3 INCH RAIN TOTALS WOULD BRING FLOODING
TO THE TURKEY RIVER...BUT THESE 3 INCH PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR
0%.
THE SECOND STORM ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD BRING MORE
FLOODING HOWEVER WITH RISING RIVER LEVELS AFTER THE FIRST STORM.
WE DONT HAVE DETAILS BUT THAT FAR YET, BUT WILL BE ABLE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND ON
THURSDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ017-029.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ034.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-095-096.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE/CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
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