930
FXUS63 KARX 261740
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105
DEGREE RANGE FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE AREA.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
- THE RISK FOR STORMS--POSSIBLY SEVERE--BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AND TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND
TRACKS OF THE PREVIOUS STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - SATURDAY: LAST FEW DAYS OF COOLER WEATHER
A SHALLOW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WAVE COUPLED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL
(700-500-MB) THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SPRINKLES TO THE REGION TODAY, WITH THESE FEATURES GRADUALLY
FADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND HEIGHT RISES ENSUE IN THEIR WAKE. THIS INCOMING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A
PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: STORM RISK, WARMING UP
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRANSLATES
EASTWARD, RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS TO STREAM INTO THE REGION OVER THE ENSUING 24-36 HOURS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOP OUT AROUND THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS
CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, A TASTE OF THE WEATHER
TO COME FOR AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS POINT TO A LATER ARRIVAL TIME
THAN EARLIER PROGGED, WHICH COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON SUNDAY IF
CLOUDS LINGER TOO LONG. EARLY LOOKS AT THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VARIABILITY IN THE SATURATION OF THE WARM
NOSE--WHICH WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER STORMS CAN REALIZE THE
1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SITUATED ABOVE THIS CAP. THEREFORE,
POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ON ACCOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS. IF STORMS WERE TO FORM, SOME
LINEARITY TO THE HODOGRAPHS (ARGUABLY NOT ORIENTED THE BEST
WITH RESPECT TO THE LINE ORIENTATION) COULD PROMOTE CELL
ORGANIZATION AND A HAIL RISK.
NEXT WEEK: SUMMER HEAT, LOW CONFIDENCE STORM RISK
A LONGWAVE BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. FOR THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND WILL KEEP A FETCH OF
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WARMEST HEAT
INDICES AREAWIDE ARE FAVORED FOR MONDAY (100-105+ DEGREES),
AFTER WHICH CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLOWLY
DEGRADES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF
THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCES OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE TRACKING
VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THE TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS IS MOST FAVORED FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE A SCENARIO
WHERE EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND OF STORMS DRIVES A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH PASSING DAY, WHICH WOULD SHUNT THE HEAT RISK
MORE INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS OF
HOW YOU SLICE THE FORECAST, IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AND HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED, IT IS JUST A MATTER OF EXACTLY WHAT
HEADLINE AND WHERE.
THE STOUTNESS OF THE CAP (DICTATED BY THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE) WILL DICTATE HOW FAR SOUTHEASTWARD EACH MCS CAN DRIVE
INTO THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING. SUCH DETAILS WILL BE
DETERMINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT MAY BE A CASE WHERE
EACH ROUND OF STORMS PLAYS A CRUCIAL ROLE IN THE TRACK OF THE
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE A MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THESE STORMS AS UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THEY
REACH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A SUBSET OF SOLUTIONS THAT
HAVE THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST, WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INTO OUR LOCAL AREA AND COULD
INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A LOW (20-30%) RISK FOR SHALLOW IFR/LIFR FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE, FAVORED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH TODAY, DECREASING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
OUR ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WHICH ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE DAILY WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
CLIMATE...SKOW
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