594  
FXUS63 KARX 151842  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
140 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, WITH  
CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. DRIVEN BY MICRO SCALE  
FEATURES - REFINING TIMING/LOCATION OF HIGHER CHANCES CHALLENGING.  
EXPECT SOME UPDATES TO THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUE AS A RESULT.  
 
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI/WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES  
IN.  
 
- WARMING LINGERS INTO FRIDAY NOW WITH COOLER, CLOSER TO SEASONABLE  
TEMPS (BACK INTO THE 70S) LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
 
> FIRST - REST OF TODAY INTO TUE: SOMETIMES IT'S NOT THE LARGE  
SCALE. SOMETIMES IT'S NOT EVEN THE MESOSCALE. SOMETIMES ITS ALL  
ABOUT THE MICRO SCALE. THOSE SMALL ELEMENTS THAT YOU CAN'T ALWAYS  
DISCERN UNTIL A FEW HOURS OUT. THAT'S WHAT'S OCCURRING RIGHT NOW,  
AND WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR IN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUE.  
 
CONVECTIVELY PRODUCED ENERGY A LOFT, IMPINGEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL  
JET, SFC CONVERGENCE, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, DEFERENTIAL HEATING  
INDUCED BOUNDARIES - ALL WEAK - BUT WHEN MIXED TOGETHER YOU CAN GET  
WHAT YOU SEE OUTSIDE (RIGHT NOW). ADD IN 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE AND THE  
CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE PERKY.  
 
SOME MOVEMENT EAST ON RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS, BUT SATELLITE  
SHOWS SOME DRYING/DECREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI - A SIGN  
OF SINKING AND/OR DRYING.  
 
EXPECTATION IS FOR CURRENT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF  
THE AFTERNOON. HOW IT PLAYS OUT TONIGHT INTO TUE ISN'T CLEAR AND THE  
CAMS AREN'T REALLY HELPFUL. BUT WITH ALL THOSE MICROSCALE ELEMENTS  
LINGERING IN SOME FASHION, 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ARE REASONABLE. WILL  
UPDATE AS NEEDED - WITH A CLOSE EYE ON THE NEAR TERM ENVIRONMENT  
WHICH, AS MENTIONED, IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN. OF NOTE, THE  
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME REGRESSION WEST WITH THE INSTABILITY  
AXIS, WHICH COULD ALSO SHIFT THE RAIN CHANCES WEST.  
 
> WHAT'S CHANGED: WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN JUST A  
FEW DAYS AGO IS TRENDING SLOWER, WITH MORE BLOCKING FROM A MORE  
STOUT OF A RIDGE THAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PREVIOUS DEPICTED. THIS  
IMPACTS THE LOCAL AREA WITH A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMER-LIKE  
TEMPS WHILE ALSO HOLDING OFF THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  
 
> OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO EAST EAST TODAY, BUT  
"BENDS OVER" MORE SO THAN EXITS, EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. SOME WEAK RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL COULD  
CREEP EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS, BUT THE BULK OF THE  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD HOLD WEST/NORTH IN THIS SCENARIO.  
 
A MORE SIGNFICIANT CHANGE IS THE EPS AND GEFS START TO RETROGRADE  
THAT RIDGE AXIS WEST THU/FRI, NOT PUSHING EAST UNTIL THE END OF THE  
WEEKEND. WPC CLUSTERS LOOK SIMILAR - ALTHOUGH A COUPLE SOLUTIONS  
WOULD HOLD ONTO THE RIDGE A DAY OR TWO LONGER. THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD  
FINALLY SWING ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN.  
 
> TEMPERATURES: THE UNSEASONABLY WARM, SUMMER-ISH AIRMASS WILL STICK  
AROUND A BIT LONGER IF THE CURRENT RIDGE RETROGRATION WESTWARD COMES  
TO PASS. EPS/GEFS FAVOR IT, AS DOES THE WPC CLUSTERS, SO THE NBM  
MODEL BLEND HAS SHIFTED FROM COOLING INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE  
WEEKEND TO HOLDING IN THE 80S THROUGH THU, THEN MOSTLY 70S THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND (AT OR ABOVE THE NORMALS). CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES COULD  
PUSH THOSE DOWN A FEW DEGREES AT TIMES.  
 
> RAIN CHANCES: WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
EASTWARD, THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD ACROSS MN, IA AND  
NORTHWEST WI FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BITS OF SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY, WEAK CONVERGENCE SFC/NEAR SFC BOUNDARIES, ALONG WITH POCKETS  
OF INSTABILITY AND IMPINGEMENT FROM RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL JETS,  
COULD BRING SHRA/TS TO PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA, MOSTLY WEST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-94. THE SMALLER SCALE NATURE,  
AND POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS FROM OTHER WEAK FEATURES AND POTENTIAL  
DEFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES, MAKE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE CHANCES  
PROBLEMATIC. SUFFICE TO SAY THOUGH, THE WIDESPREAD RAINS OF MID WEEK  
NOW ARE SHIFTING MORE INTO FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND - PER THE RECENT MODEL  
TRENDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE  
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH EXACT COVERAGE OF  
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING UNCERTAIN. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY  
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH  
WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 8-12 KTS BEFORE  
FALLING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION...NAYLOR  
 
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