772
FXUS63 KARX 091844
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
144 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LIKELY (50 TO 85%) FOR TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW WHERE FREEZING
RAIN COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO A FULL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW (10 TO
40%).
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES (60 TO 80%) FOR
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL (60 TO 80%) FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: NICE TODAY, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN A WARM DAY TODAY AS HIGHS GET INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY HITTING 70F! HEADING INTO
TUESDAY, A TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND AS IT DOES,
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ROUGHLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THIS LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ALOFT ON TUESDAY, CLOSER
TO 850MB WHERE THE LREF MEAN HAS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB BETWEEN 0 AND
10C WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
CWA, COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. WHILE THIS MAY SEEM LIKE ANOTHER
NICE DAY OUTSIDE, NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ASIDE FROM THE TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOR GRANT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CLAYTON, CRAWFORD, AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES WHERE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS
RISK WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AS THEIR IS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE
THIS COULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE STORM
POTENTIAL IS OVER, LATER TUESDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN
NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW. THIS WOULD
START OUT IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A WINDOW WHERE
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR DUE TO THE 850MB WARM NOSE COMBINING WITH
THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. WHILE
THERE IS A 30 TO 50% FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE TO FALL, MOSTLY IN
WISCONSIN, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE FULL IMPACT THIS WOULD HAVE
AS TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT HAVE BEEN QUITE WARM. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, A WEAK FRONTOGENESIS BAND FORMS AND
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN DIMINISHES AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SWITCHES TO ALL SNOW BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW TOTALS ARE MOSTLY
BETWEEN A TRACE TO 1" WITH SOME LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-94
IN CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES WHERE TOTALS ARE MORE IN THE 1 TO 2"
RANGE. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MORE RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
A LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY EVENING AND INCREASES
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS, TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
LOW, RAIN COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IF
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. NOT MUCH IS
ANTICIPATED QPF WISE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 0.15" ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 40%, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. SINCE THE COLDER AIR IS MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-94, THERE IS ALSO A 30 TO 60% CHANCE
THAT AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW FALLS. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: ACCUMULATING SNOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT
FEATURE TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIPS DOWN INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WAVE STRENGTHENS DURING ITS JOURNEY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND A SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
LOW SHIFTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS
HAPPENING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z LREF CLUSTERS, ALL 4 CLUSTERS HAVE A 25 TO 40%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK AT TO
SEE HOW MUCH THESE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IS THE EFI FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS ALREADY A 0.5 TO 0.7 INDICATOR FOR SNOWFALL AND A
SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1 FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND A 0 FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT SNOWFALL
FOR THIS WEEKEND IS TRENDING TO BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND THAT THERE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL OUTLIERS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. DESPITE ALL OF THIS MODEL AGREEMENT, THIS WAVE IS
STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY SO DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM WILL CHANGE,
SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BUT SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY STAYED
AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LOWER STRATUS WILL
START TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT THE KRST TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LIKELY IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS CLOSER TO 00Z WEDNESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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