245
FXUS63 KARX 161834
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
134 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
- A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW.
- WARMING UP AND DRIER FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TONIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING: COLD!
CLOUDS AND LIGHT FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES THIS OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH WINDS ALSO LESSENING THIS EVENING, THE STAGE IS SET
FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THESE FRESH SNOWS ARE NOTORIOUS
FOR CAUSING LOWS TO CRATER TO IMPRESSIVELY COLD VALUES AND THE
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE ALONG OUR WEEKEND HEAVY SNOW BAND AXIS IS
-15 TO -25 WITH THE 5TH PERCENTILE AN IMPRESSIVE -20 TO -30!
TUESDAY AFTERNOON - TUESDAY NIGHT: LIGHT SNOW
A SUBTLE PV LOBE CRESTS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST TONIGHT AND RACES SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A 125-KT JET STREAK LATER ON TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE WAA BRANCH OF THE APPROACHING MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WAVE WILL FUEL A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEEP DGZ
GROWTH SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS OF 15-20:1+. THIS LIGHT AND
FLUFFY SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END BY
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1-2"
WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF SOME 3" TOTALS IN THE MIX. AFTER OUR
WEEKEND STORM, THIS SNOW HARDLY SEEMS WORTH MENTIONING.
MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: WARMER AND DRIER!
THE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REALLY STARTS
TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTTOM
LINE, LOOK FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WE STILL SIT ON THE
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, SO A FEW
TRANSIENT WAVES COULD CLIP THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT THE IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. HOW
QUICKLY WE CAN WARM UP DEPENDS HEAVILY ON HOW QUICKLY OUR NEW
SNOWPACK CAN MELT OFF. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING INTO THE 40S AND
50S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS CERTAINLY HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST
IOWA, BUT THESE 50+ TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD NORTH OF I-90
FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHOULD
TEMPER READINGS SOMEWHAT TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
MVFR/VFR STRATOCUMULUS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SKIES CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20G20-30KTS SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 06Z, SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...SKOW
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