700
FXUS63 KARX 040002
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
702 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1 INCH WILL BE COMMON, WITH A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.5-2 INCHES,
PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE LOOKS TO MOVE IN BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER TODAY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT: RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LINGER
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONT IS GENERALLY SITTING BETWEEN ROCHESTER
AND LA CROSSE IN SE MINNESOTA AND DOWN INTO EASTERN IOWA. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA HAS REMAINED BENIGN WITH LIMITED
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF DUBUQUE, IA WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW AN AREA OF
500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH STORMS IN OUR
LOCAL AREA WILL BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE
1.4-1.75 INCH RANGE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW FOR
OUR AREA GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY. STRONG LINE PARALLEL BULK
SHEAR IN THE 40-60 KT RANGE WILL ALLOW THESE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES NORTH AND EAST INTO MORE
AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE LOWER
CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER HEATING AND BUOYANCY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE QUASI
"WARM SECTOR". IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENT OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL STAY FAIRLY INTACT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE AFTERNOON SO THERE REMAINS SOME LOW RISKS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN GET ITS ACT TOGETHER IN TIME.
LARGE HAIL THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
TOO LOW TO SUPPORT CONTINUED HAIL GROWTH IN OUR AREA. AS THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS A QUICK
0.25-0.50 WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN STORMS WITH OVERALL
TOTALS STILL FORECAST IN THE 0.5-1.5 INCH RANGE BEFORE RAIN
COMES TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
WEDNESDAY: LINGERING WILDFIRE SMOKE
THOUGH COMMON SENSE WOULD THINK THAT THE RAIN WOULD WIPE OUT
SMOKE CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, THAT WON'T BE THE CASE THIS TIME
AROUND. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A BAND OF SMOKE WORKING ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE, THIS SMOKE HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF
MAKING IT TO THE LOWER LEVELS. DUE TO THIS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD,
ALL COUNTIES IN OUR LOCAL AREA ARE UNDER AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TOMORROW. UNHEALTHY AQI WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA SO SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD LIMIT THEIR TIME
OUTSIDE IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER FROM
OUR AREA, SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WITH
WEAK FLOW UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO
DISPERSE BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY MIX OUT AND DRIFT EAST BY
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ON/OFF
RAIN CHANCES
WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL
FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE-WEEK TIMEFRAME. AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS LATCHING ONTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO
INITIATE A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA
WITH POPS ON AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE HIGHER END CHANCE
CATEGORY. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE MOVE INTO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EC ARE HANDLING THIS TIMING-WISE WITH
THE GFS ON THE SLOWER SIDE. IN ANY CASE, THIS LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. ASIDE FROM FRIDAY AND MONDAY, THE REST OF THE DAYS HAVE
A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS WITH MORE NEBULOUS FORCING POTENTIAL
THOSE DAYS. NONE OF THESE DAYS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE WASHOUTS AS
THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH.
MEAN QPF TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AT OR BELOW 0.50
INCHES FOR ANY GIVEN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG-TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
MAIN LINE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LIES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MOVING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. WHILE HIGHEST IMPACTS REMAIN CLOSER TO THIS LINE, MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS WITH -SHRA SEEN BIFURCATING SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WESTERN
WISCONSIN. EXPECT THESE MVFR-IFR CEILINGS STICK AROUND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, EVENTUALLY DEPARTING SOUTHEAST AS THE
FRONT DEPARTS.
LOCAL LINGERING IMPACTS WILL BE VISIBILITY IMPACTS FROM
FU/HZ/BR SEEN FROM NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AT 04.00Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT FU TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
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