679
FXUS63 KARX 241042
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
542 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE (80 TO 95%) FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY: SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS
THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
EAST AND BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. AS THIS WAVE
PUSHES EAST, A COLD FRONT COMES IN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
USHERING IN SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER
TO NORMAL, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AS LOCATIONS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-94. THE NBM DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A 20 TO 40% FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 37F
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NORTH OF I-94.
WHILE MOST OF THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRY, THERE IS A WEAK WAVE THAT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A
RESULT THAT COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS RETURN
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A 500MB TROUGH SHOOTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE UP INTO THE FORECAST, NAEFS IS
SHOWING THAT THE PWATS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. RAIN LOOKS TO
MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST
LREF HAS A 25 TO 35% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 30 TO 60% FOR AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN. THIS
FORECAST HAS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE SHIFTED ITS TRACK QUITE A BIT
NORTH RESULTING IN THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE. WITH THE
LOW MOVING SO FAR NORTH, THE WARM SECTOR HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH. NOW
WHILE THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY LIMIT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THERE REMAINS AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG, BASED ON THE 00Z
GFS, WITH 25 TO 40 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AND 25 TO 35 KTS OF 0-3KM
SHEAR. THIS SETUP ALSO INCLUDES A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A
DEEPENING 500MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALL IN ALL THIS SETUP
IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR, HOWEVER THE
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING MAY INHIBIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: COOLER WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT FLOW REGIME BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER MIDWEST SITS ON THE BOTTOM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE NORMAL OR
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITHIN THIS FLOW
REGIME, A FEW IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE LONG
TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN UNDER 15% FOR ANY GIVEN DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WILL
BE OUT OF WESTERN WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09
AND 11Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHEAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...CECAVA
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