841
FXUS63 KARX 222339
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
539 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN TONIGHT WITH THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS FRIDAY MORNING OF -40 TO -50.
- VERY COLD FRIDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO, THOUGH DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW RISING OF WIND CHILLS VALUES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- THE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IS FAVORING COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS IN WHICH COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED, STARTING WITH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARCTIC AIR IS STREAMING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF HCR
SNOW SHOWERS UPSTREAM ACROSS MINNESOTA. THESE SHOWERS PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS A 1055-MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT UP TO 40 UBAR/KM COUPLED WITH THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES
HAVE RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS AND BLOWING AROUND
THE FALLING SNOW AND FRESH SNOW PACK. VISIBILITIES WHERE THE
SNOW IS BLOWING COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE. TEMPERATURES TODAY
HAVE BEEN STEADY AND SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEFORE SUNSET.
THIS EVENING - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COLD DETAILS
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE THIS EVENING AND WHILE THE SHOWERS SHOULD
WANE, THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH THE 5-6-MB
PRESSURE RISE CENTROID CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT
00Z AND ONLY SLOWLY RELAXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10-20G25-30KT RANGE INTO THE EVENING AND STILL BE
AROUND 10-15G20KTS BY SUNRISE. AIR TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ALREADY
AROUND -20 AND THIS AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING ON OUR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALL COMBINED, WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT
SINK TO BETWEEN -40 TO -50 DEGREES, COLDEST IN CENTRAL WI.
WINDS TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND HIGHS
DON'T LOOK TO RISE ABOVE -5 TO -10 DEGREES. ONE OF THE BIGGER
CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS (PREVENTING
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING) AND NEAR CALM WINDS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ADD A WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IN THAT
WIND CHILL/TEMPERATURE VALUES UNDER THE RIDGE MAY NOT EVEN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE TRANSITIONED THE WATCH TO AN ADVISORY
FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WIND CHILL VALUES SLOWLY IMPROVE AND
THEN START TO DROP OFF PARTS OF THE ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS AREAS GO CALM, WITH ONLY AREAS NORTH OF I-94 IN CENTRAL
WI IN AN ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.
WE SEE SOME "IMPROVEMENT" IN TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, BUT NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE THE
FORECAST IT WILL BE COLD. ANOTHER 1035-MB ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND LIKELY NECESSITATE THE NEED
FOR ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC
AIR STAYS CLOSE AT HAND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
THIS ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD AGAIN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK--BUT TO WHAT DEGREE IS LESS KNOWN.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
IS QUITE DRY WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES, BUT
THESE DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
INCREASED WINDS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FROM STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. RESULTANT BLOWING SNOW SEEN PRIMARILY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN UNSHELTERED AIRPORTS SUCH AS
KRST TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BLSN TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAF AT
23.00Z ISSUANCE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ017-029.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ096.
IA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ008-009-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ010-011-029-030.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...JAR
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