513
FXUS63 KARX 071941
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED SMALL SHIFT SOUTH WITH SATURDAY STORM SYSTEM. NORTHERN
FRINGE OF SNOW REGION COULD STILL IMPACT I-90, BUT THE HIGHER
POTENTIAL LIES ACROSS NORTHEAST IA, SOUTHWEST WI. MOSTLY A FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH ONLY 5 TO 20% CHANCES FOR 1" SOUTH OF
I-90.
- COLD WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S SUN/MON. BLUSTERY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR A RAW SUNDAY TOO - SINGLE DIGIT TO TEENS FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
> WEEKEND: STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH BAND OF SNOW
NOW FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. SYSTEM COULD
STILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BITTER COLD REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH WITH
HIGHS NOT WARMING OUT OF THE 30S SUN/MON.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ON TRACK TO SPIN OUT OF THE PAC
NW TODAY, DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT. THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE
BEEN SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK MORE SOUTH EACH DAY...AND THAT
CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT JOG SOUTHWARD. THE SFC LOW WAS
PROGGED TO RIDE WEST-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MO YESTERDAY - WITH THE
GEFS AND EPS MEAN SUGGESTING CENTRAL MO IS NOW MORE PREFERRED. SOME
OF THE OUTLIERS PROPOSE ANOTHER DROP SOUTH IS POSSIBLE. THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW DIPS SOUTH AS A
RESULT WITH THE BULK OF THE EPS AND GEFS MEMBERS KEEPING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF RELATED QPF AT THE IA/MN BORDER AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS MAIN
SHORTWAVE, BUT IS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST AND DOESN'T LOOK TO IMPACT
THE LOCAL AREA WITH ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. THAT SAID, CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY, AND WITH RIPPLES IN THE FLOW COUPLED WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SATURATION, SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCERS PREFER
NORTHERN/EASTERN WI WITH THESE CHANCES.
- PRECIPITATION: SNOW, MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES. MINOR ACCUMS
FAVORED ACROSS NE IA/SW WI.
AS MENTIONED, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE QPF/PCPN AREA HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH (AGAIN) - FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN IA TO THE WI/IL BORDER. THE
GEFS MEAN QPF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE COMPARED TO THE EPS.
ADDITIONAL, THE GEFS HOURLY TEMPS HAVE ALSO BEEN COLDER - WHICH
IMPACTS PCPN TYPE AND THUS, ACCUMULATIONS OF SAID PCPN TYPES. SO,
THE GEFS ALSO REMAINS MORE INCLINED TO HAVE MORE SNOW IN THE WEST-
EAST RUNNING SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM. BELIEVE THE GEFS TEMPS ARE
MORE INLINE WITH REALITY AS PCPN LOAD WILL COOL THE NEAR SFC LAYER.
ADDITIONAL, COOLING TO THE WETBULB IN NAM/RAP/HRRR/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SHALLOW ABOVE 0 C LAYER, ROUGHLY 500 TO UNDER 1
KFT. PROBABLY NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR FULL MELTING AND SUGGESTING MORE
SNOW OR A SNOW-RAIN MIX. THESE SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE PTYPE AND RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS.
NOT A LOT OF QPF WITH THE SYSTEM WITH A FEW HUNDRETHS TO 2/10". SUB
CLIMATE SNOW RATIOS, POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIX, AND MELTING WILL WORK
AGAINST SNOW ACCUMS. A FEW TENTHS ON THE GRASSY SURFACES STILL LOOK
GOOD WHERE THE SNOW FALLS. A 5 TO 20% SHOT FOR 1" SOUTH OF I-90.
- TEMPERATURES: MUCH COLDER AIR
COLD AIR STARTS TO FUNNEL IN POST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TONIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND +5 C THIS MORNING TO
-6C BY 12Z SAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD, CANADIAN AIR SURGES IN POST
THE SAT RAIN/SNOW MAKER FOR SUN/MON WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -12 C
BY 12Z SUN. EPS AND GEFS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM HIGH TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THEY TREND FARTHER SOUTH,
DEEPER/SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY "NO CHANCE" TO
WARM OUT OF THE 30S SUN AND <5% ON MON. ADDITIONALLY, SUNDAY IS
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST DAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY NEVER
CREEPING ABOVE FREEZING. ADD IN THE WIND AND MORNING WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. BRR.
> 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK: TRENDING SEASONABLE AND DRY
EPS/GEFS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGING A LOFT
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WPC CLUSTERS
CONCUR, BUT SHOWING SOME TRENDS OF SLOWING THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE RIDGE AXIS (3 OUT OF THE 4 CLUSTERS SUGGESTS SUCH). AND,
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH - POSITIONING. THAT SAID, THE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED OVERALL.
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WOULD BE A RETURN TO A MORE SEASONABLE TEMP
REGIME WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHUFFLING ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
NORTH - KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CIGS: CIGS WILL DROP INTO HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
GENERALLY HOLD THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME POTENTIAL TO DIP LOWER,
ESPECIALLY IF EXPECTED PCPN ON SAT SHIFTS BACK NORTH. FOR NOW, WILL
HOLD MVFR AT KRST AND VFR AT KLSE...WHICH ARE FAVORED IN THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE.
WX/VSBY: A FEW SPRINKLES/-SHRA QUICKLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. NEXT
BAND OF PCPN SET TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS IA SAT. SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RELATED
PCPN HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF I-90. KRST/KLSE COULD MISS OUT
COMPLETELY. IF PCPN DOES EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTH IT WOULD LIKELY BE
SNOW WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY
SURFACES.
WINDS: NORTHWEST INTO THE EVENING WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS. LIGHTENS UP THIS EVENING AND SHIFTS MORE NORTHERLY, HOLDING
THERE FOR MOST OF SAT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION.....RIECK
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