957
FXUS63 KARX 060527
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1127 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FREEZING DRIZZLE (30-70%) AND DRIZZLE RISK FOCUSES ON AN AXIS
FROM AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EAST TO AROUND I-94
WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED NORTH/EAST OF I-94. EXACT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE
OCCURS.
- BRIEF COLD SNAP SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO QUICK WARM UP FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FREEZING DRIZZLE, DRIZZLE, LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, AN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG DIVES SOUTHEAST
OVER NE MN AND WI TOWARD CHICAGO. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN OUR
REGION, NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AS REFLECTED BY ONGOING
STRATUS. WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TOUGH TO COME BY, GOES WV
SATELLITE CHANNELS SHOD A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
UPPER WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIP, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF I-94, ROBUST AGREEMENT ACROSS
GUIDANCE THAT 850MB, 925MB, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING WHILE A DGZ IN THE 600-650MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATED, SO
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST, GUIDANCE IS
LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DGZ WILL LARGELY BE
UNSATURATED WITH DISAGREEMENT FOCUSING ON LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND, CONSEQUENTLY, IF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIQUID
DRIZZLE WILL BE PREDOMINANT. INTERESTING CONTRAST BETWEEN 05.12Z
GFS/NAM WITH A COOLER COLUMN AND THUS MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE
SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR/RAP KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR
DROPLETS TO REMAIN LIQUID ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND BUT 05.18Z RUNS
OF EACH NOW HAVE SURFACE TEMPS DIRECTLY AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WHEN THE DROPLETS MAY FALL. 05.12Z GFS IS A SLAM DUNK FOR FZDZ BUT
IT IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN ONGOING WEATHER SO HAVE LARGELY
DISCARDED THIS SOLUTION. HAVE INSTEAD LEANED THE FORECAST TOWARD
FZDZ GIVEN THE 05.18Z HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS AND 05.12Z HREF MEAN
SOUNDINGS, RETAINING POTENTIAL FOR LIQUID DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE
DOMINANT FZDZ (30-70%). IN ANY CASE, DURATION OF FZDZ LOOKS TO ONLY
BE ABOUT 2-3 HOURS ONCE IT BEGINS AND THE OVERNIGHT TIMING LIMITS
IMPACT DUE TO LOW ROAD TRAFFIC LEVELS. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL VIA OTHER AVENUES.
FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: WARMING UP, PRECIP RETURNS (?) MID WEEK
STARTING FRIDAY, WE'LL ENTER A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THAT
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY WILL MOVE IN AS A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO DROP
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST, THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
BEGIN ADVECTING SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS BY SUNDAY
SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST (UPPER 20S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN). THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO STEADILY
RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BY THEN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE 50 DEGREE MARK
(ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS). CURRENT FORECASTS OF 46 AND 43 AT
LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER KEEP US OUT OF RECORD HIGH TERRITORY WITH
THE RECORDS BEING 51 (2009) AND 48 (1977) RESPECTIVELY BUT IF WE
START TO NOTICE AN UPWARD TREND, THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES SIT AT ~10
TO 30 PERCENT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SHOULD
HELP TO MELT WHATEVER SNOW IS LEFT OVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TO START THE WEEK, THIS IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE AMPLITUDE. AT THE SAME TIME, A CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS THE BAJA REGION IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTH EAST TO REJOIN
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. RIGHT NOW THERE REMAINS A SIGNFICIANT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW
AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVES EAST, ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION BUT HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS BEFORE THE SURFACE SYSTEM
CUTS IT OFF IS TO BE DETERMINED. IN ANY CASE, WITH THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
AN AREA OF RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SURFACE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN. IT'S STILL WAY TOO
EARLY GET INTO THE WEEDS OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE VAST
UNCERTAINTIES WITH IT TO BEGIN WITH BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
HOW IT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER TONIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING FRONT USHERS IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL, THE RECENT HREF HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%) FOR THESE
CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE LOCAL AREA AROUND THE 08Z TIMEFRAME. STILL
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE RISK AT KLSE AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WITH BETTER LIFT
COMING IN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE OPTED TO HAVE A -DZ AS
PREVAILING WITH PROB30 FOR -FZDZ AS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HAZY ON
IF SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ICING. REGARDLESS,
CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR UNTIL DAYBREAK WHERE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW-MVFR SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. EVENTUALLY, DIURNAL MIXING WILL AID IN
LIFTING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE IN UNSHELTERED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE/FERGUSON
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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