792
FXUS63 KARX 091047
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
547 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE RAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE 0.25 TO 0.75" WILL BE POSSIBLE (40 TO 70%
CHANCE).
- WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS GET INTO
THE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PERIODIC RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS AND
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT: COOLER WITH MORE RAIN SOUTH OF I-90
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, TOWARDS THE LOW TO
MID 50S. OUR COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY EVENING
WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. A SHORTWAVE DIPS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTERACTING WITH THIS COLD FRONT. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS
HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SEE RAIN MOVE IN THIS EVENING. RAIN
TOTALS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.5" RANGE EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAYETTE, CLAYTON, AND GRANT COUNTIES WHERE
UP TO 0.75" WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED UP
TOWARDS I-90.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON - MONDAY: WARMING UP, PERIODIC STORMS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES A NOTABLE
TRANSFORMATION TO START THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH SAGS ALONG
THE WEST COAST STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO MONDAY. THE
PRECEDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION FUELING A
CORRESPONDING RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY--POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THE BASIC INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO
LATCH ONTO ANY SOLID FORCING MECHANISM TO MAKE THIS RAINFALL A
REALITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOOKING TO BE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
MONDAY, BUT THESE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE FLESHED OUT AND ARE OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY, A
CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA,
OVERLAPPING WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF THESE
FACTORS ARE REALIZED, BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR VARIATION
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE SPC CURRENTLY HAS US OUTLINED IN A 15%
WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AI/ML CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE, SO WILL
BE ANOTHER PERIOD TO MONITOR.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE NEW WEEK AS EFI
VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY HIGHLIGHT NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE 0.8 TO 0.9 RANGE. THE 09.01Z NBM MEAN
SUGGESTS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 70S, AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WHILE LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S, AROUND 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING AT THE 09.00Z GEFS/EPS/AIGEFS/AIFS, THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS, GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES, BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THESE
ENSEMBLES CLUSTER AROUND THE NBM MEAN, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL
TREND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
OUTSIDE OF SOME LOW END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94 THIS MORNING, SITTING RIGHT AROUND 3KFT. THINKING THESE
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING TO BECOME
SOLIDLY VFR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT SUGGESTED
BY HRRR SOUNDINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION
AFTER 23Z, MOST FAVORABLE SOUTH OF I-90 (70-90%). MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE RAIN AND LINGER FOR AWHILE AFTER
AS THE 09.00Z REFS/HREF INDICATE A 30-50% PROBABILITY FOR
CEILINGS LESS THAN 3KFT. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE REDUCED IN ANY
SHOWERS, MOST FAVORABLE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHIFTS EAST
OF OUR AREA BY 10Z FRIDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM/SKOW
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page