146
FXUS63 KARX 190531
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1131 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK WITH 1"+ OF ACCUMULATIONS
IN SPOTS. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE PATCHY BLOWING OF LIGHTER SNOWPACK.
LOWER LOCAL SNOWPACK COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES ABSTAINED
ISSUANCE OR EXPANSION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT WILL
REQUIRE FURTHER MONITORING AS WINDS NEAR THIS EVENING.
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK CEASE FRIDAY AS
ANOMALOUS COLD RETURNS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING.
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED.
- MEASURABLE SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
ONGOING SNOWFALL:
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW SEEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON RADAR, CAUSING TEMPORARY
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH 1" TO 2" OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED.
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EVIDENT IN WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS MINNESOTA, EXHIBITS INITIAL GUSTS GREATER THAN
30KTS 50-80 MILES UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS OF 20Z.
GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LIGHTER SNOWPACK, BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS INCREASE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER SNOWPACK
MEASUREMENTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHILE LOCALLY ABSTAINED AS BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO LIMITED TO PATCHY.
HREF JOINT PROBABILITIES EXHIBIT THIS CONFIDENCE AND
CLIMATOLOGY WELL AS SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20KTS, LIMITING
LIFTING ABILITY OF SNOWPACK REGARDLESS OF DEPTH. WILL REQUIRE
CONSTANT MONITORING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING REGARDLESS
AS PATCHY ROAD IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
BITTER COLD AREA WIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SEEN
WELL UPSTREAM INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO COVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS 30 TO 40
MPH. RESULTANT WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO KEEP
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
COLD LATER IN THE WEEK:
A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN THE ANOMALOUS COLD EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES HOVER A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. EVENTUALLY THE COLD RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH ECMWF
(18.00Z) EXTREME FORECAST INDEX OF -0.85 FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS
SUGGESTING "VERY UNUSUAL" COLD IS LIKELY. ACCOMPANYING ABOVE 0
SHIFT OF TAILS BIFURCATE THE FORECAST AREA SUGGESTING A FEW
MEMBER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST 99TH PERCENTILE COLD TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO MODEL CLIMATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ASSOCIATED
CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTION PLOTS ARE LIMITED TO THE DAY 5
FORECAST WINDOW SO DETERMINING AND DECIPHERING SPECIFICS
REGARDING SHIFT OF TAILS, I.E., EXTREMITIES AND OUTLIERS.
WHILE ALL LREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THE RESPONSIBLE POLAR LOW ADVECTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATER THIS WEEK IN 100% PROBABILITIES
FOR <504 DAM 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING 100% PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW ZERO 2M TEMPERATURES (EPS 18.00Z, GEFS 18.00Z) FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT (EPS 18.00Z, GEFS 18.00Z, GEPS 18.00Z),
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRESENTS
INTER/INTRA FORECAST MODEL DISCREPANCIES. EVIDENT IN PROBABILITIES
FOR THE -20C ISOTHERM AT 850MB, SEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS WEEKENDS COLD, VARYING IN CERTAINTY FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST
PRESSURE AND LONGEST LASTING COLD SEEN IN THE GEFS (18.00Z) WITH
80% PROBABILITY FOR 1035 MB MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CAUSING
75%+ PROBABILITIES FOR NEGATIVE 2M TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER LOW IN THE EPS (18.00Z),
SIGNALED IN ECMWF DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE HEIGHTS TO 850MB FRIDAY
NIGHT, FORCES THE LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIMITING PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW ZERO 2M TEMPERATURES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.
RESULTANT NBM 25TH TO 75TH 2M TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS 10-15
DEGREES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND 5-10 DEGREES LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE LONGER FORECAST HOUR AND VARIABLE
SOLUTIONS, HAVE KEPT NBM FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
KEEPS APPARENT TEMPERATURES STRADDLING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO
EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY MORNING AND NEARING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
SNOW CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW QUICKLY SKIRTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY, BRINGING LOCAL SNOW CHANCES INITIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE FOR 0.01" OF QPF
REMAINS 100% AS PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" NEARS 50% IN THE GEFS
(18.00Z) AND 70% IN THE EPS (18.00Z). THE HIGHER QPF CURRENTLY
CAUSES CONCERN FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN
THE LONGER FORECAST HOUR AND INCREASING FEALTY TO THE NBM, HAVE
KEPT NBM 20-50% POPS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES. WILL REQUIRE FURTHER ADJUSTING AS FORECAST HOUR NEARS
AND NBM CATCHES UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THE WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE.
KRST WILL LIKELY SEE BLOWING SNOW REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE 1
TO 2 MILE RANGE THROUGH 19.08Z AND THEN THEY SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME VFR. KLSE WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH 19.08Z. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH 19.15Z AND
THEN BECOME VFR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-
029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ086-
087-094-095.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ008-
009-018-019.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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