781
FXUS63 KARX 031844
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
144 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN SPREADING EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY RAISE
RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG FLASHIER RIVERS IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOW PROBABILITY (<15%) FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOCALLY LIMITED TO EASTERN
HALF OF COUNTIES GIVEN TIGHT NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
- MOSTLY DRY START TO NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
ONGOING AFTERNOOON-EVENING STORMS:
STORMS SEEN SPREADING NORTHEAST ON RADAR IMAGERY BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AS STORMS PUSH NORTH, SMALL, PEA-SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LOCALLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA. SIMILAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ADVECTS A DEEPENING LOW NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE ACCOMPANYING TIGHTENING OF
THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SOLIDIFIES THE EAST WIND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, PERPETUATING THE LOCAL
WEAKENING FORCE FIELD, A SLIGHT JAUNT NORTH IN THE BOUNDARY
TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED FORCING ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT SPREADS STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OVERALL
LOCAL CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING RIVER FLOODING
ALONG FLASHIER RIVERS; SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
STORM CHANCES TONIGHT:
LIMITED INSTABILITY IN HIGH RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS KEEP OVERALL
LOCAL STORM THREAT LOW, ALTHOUGH A QUICK PROGRESSION TO LINEAR
MODE ALONG THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CREATES CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE FAST MOTION. MAIN CONCERN IN FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WHILE LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT (5%), SMALL HAIL
ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY HAZARD.
FREEZING RAIN LOCALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT:
FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN RETURN TONIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENT AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
EXPECTED TO COOL NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING AS THE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY TIGHTENS, INCREASING EAST WINDS AND CAA. ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF LOCAL
COUNTIES GIVEN TIGHT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
FURTHERMORE, ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 0.1" TO 0.2"
EXPECTED.
FLURRY CHANCES SATURDAY:
AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY, INITIAL LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES SWITCH TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FROM STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA
CAUSING SHORT BURSTS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITHIN THESE
STRONGER FLURRIES. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
MOSTLY DRY START TO NEW WEEK:
BY THE TIME WE GET TO 12Z SUNDAY, OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGHING REGIME THAT ROTATES
OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE MOISTURE LARGELY WORKED OVER FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. MOVING INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE AS WE
WILL NOT HAVE HAD ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN BY THEN. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, IF THERE ARE ANY IN OUR AREA, SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
AND NOT IMPACTFUL.
AS THE TROUGHING REGIME FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST, A SURFACE
HIGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND COOL THROUGH THEN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:
ACTIVITY STARTS TO RAMP UP BY MID-WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SWING NORTHEAST BACK INTO CANADA BY THE WEEKEND, A
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WIDESPREAD CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE ZONE AROUND THE BOUNDARY. BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND HENCE THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY, WILL HOLD OFF ON GIVING ANY
REASONABLE DETERMINISTIC QPF TOTALS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, CURRENT
FORECASTS DON'T SHOW ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS TO SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS, EVEN AS POPS
HOLD IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
ONWARDS. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SIT IN
THE 50-70% RANGE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT NOTION THAT A
HEALTHY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S TO 60S,
SUPPORTING A FULLY RAIN EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
RAIN SPREADING NORTHEAST ON RADAR IMAGERY REACHING OR NEARING
LOCAL TAF SITES (KLSE/KRST) AT 03.18Z TAF ISSUANCE ADVECTING TS
AND VISIBILITY IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE
REMOVED TS MENTION FROM BOTH TAF SITES IN THE NEAREST TERM GIVEN
OBSERVATIONS LIMITING EXTENT TO SOUTHERN HALF OF LOCAL FORECAST
AREA, FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. EVENTUALLY
EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY AFFECT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING STORMS SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL COVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
ENVELOPS THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, HIGHER QPF VALUES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGEST 1.5"+ OVER FLOODING
SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS IN WISCONSIN (E.G., KICKAPOO, BLACK, YELLOW)
AND IOWA (E.G., TURKEY). THEREFORE, COLLABORATED HIGHER QPF
FORECAST WITH WPC AND NCRFC FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER FORECASTS AT
18Z. GIVEN THESE RAINFALL VALUES ALIGNED WITH 80TH+ PERCENTILE
QPF IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, EXPECT ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO ACTION
STAGE OR MINOR FLOODING AT SUSCEPTIBLE RIVER SITES.
OVERALL IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT LOCATION OF BAND OF HIGHER
VALUES AND SUBSEQUENT DRAINAGE INTO FLOODING SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS.
WHILE LOW PROBABILITY (<10%), MODERATE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SHOULD TRAINING STORMS REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME
SITES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE/JAR
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...JAR
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