721  
FXUS63 KARX 191944  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
244 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WHOLE LOT GOING ON THROUGH THE FIRST  
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
REGION TODAY WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SOME CLOUDINESS  
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT WILL REMAIN QUIET. IT WILL  
CONTINUE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY. SOME  
CONCERN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEW  
POINTS FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THE SAND  
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL PUSH THE RH DOWN TO 25  
PERCENT OR LESS. FORTUNATELY, THE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG YET AND SHOULD BE  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT  
THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WORK WEEK. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE  
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO  
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE  
19.12Z MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE AND THUS HOW MUCH  
FORCING IT WILL PRODUCE. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS RIGHT NOW IS FOR  
THE WAVE TO BE A BIT ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH ONLY SOME VERY WEAK  
PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER EXPECTED. THE BEST FORCING  
MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A BAND OF WEAK TO MODERATE  
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. WITH MOST  
OF THE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE POST-FRONTAL, THERE LOOKS TO BE ONLY  
AROUND 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE TO WORK WITH, SO SOME THUNDER WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A SEVERE OUTBREAK TO OCCUR.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA,  
SO SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT  
FINALLY CLEARS OUT TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO FOLLOW  
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO  
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN CHANCE THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA  
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE  
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY  
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS  
BECOMING SOUTH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI, BLACK, TREMPEALEAU, WISCONSIN AND YELLOW. THE LATEST  
RIVER FORECASTS AND EXPECTED IMPACTS CAN BE FOUND AT  
WATER.WEATHER.GOV.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM...04  
AVIATION...04  
HYDROLOGY...04  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page