159
FXUS63 KARX 160549
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S SOUTH OF I-94.
- PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
RAIN SOUTH I-94. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCES
(~10% CHANCE) FOR FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE A
SWITCHOVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES (30-60%) THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
REST OF TODAY - TUESDAY: UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS PERSIST
WEAK 500MB RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL ENABLE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK AND PERPETUATE THESE ONGOING MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR
850MB TEMPERATURES TO MAINTAIN IN THE 5-10C. AS A RESULT, NBM
INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD FOR MONDAY RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER
60S, WITH THE 60S BEING MOST FAVORED IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (~40% CHANCE) FOR HIGHS TO TOP 55 DEGREES AT LA
CROSSE WITH EVEN SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES (~15% CHANCE) TO
HIT 60 ON MONDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SOME MOISTURE/WARM
ADVECTION MAY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER SOME FOR MONDAY SO HAVE
TEMPERED DOWN HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS,
IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO GET OUTDOORS AS WE WILL BE RUNNING
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS OUR TYPICAL HIGHS RUN IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: TRENDING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A DECENT AXIS OF 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS MOISTURE
AXIS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AXIS ALLOWING FOR AN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING ON OVERNIGHT
HOURS. QUITE THE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS MUCH
OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS DEWPOINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 40S FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WHICH EVEN NOTES SOME MLCAPE (AROUND
100 J/KG) IN THE 15.12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GEFS,
SUGGESTING SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY, WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS CAN OVERACHIEVE ON
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN OCCUR AS THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES
(60-90%) FOR PRECIPITABLE WATERS TO EXCEED 0.75". HOWEVER, LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT
TOTALS.
IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI, POTENTIAL FOR ALTERNATIVE P-TYPES TO RAIN
REMAINS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING
WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME. AS A RESULT, CANNOT
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (10-30%) FOR
MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, AS COLD
ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MAY OCCURS PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION EXITING
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE FOR ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS IS LOW INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL,
WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AND COULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITIES
(50-70%) FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AS MIXING IN
THIS COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME WITH BE CAPABLE OF ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 30-35 KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION SEEMS PROBABLE FOR THE MORNING AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ON THE HEELS OF
THIS FIRST TROUGH, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW LATER ON THURSDAY. STILL A LARGE RANGE OF OUTCOMES
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VARY ON
BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. WHEN LOOKING AT THE GRAND
ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN) CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THE MEAN 500MB
PATTERN WITHIN EACH CLUSTER IS FAIRLY MESSY WITH CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW POSITIONS EXHIBITING WIDE VARIANCE IN THEIR POSITION
IN THE MIDWEST. THE TWO HIGHEST MEMBERSHIP CLUSTERS HAVE
SIMILAR SURFACE LOW TRACKS WITH THE LARGEST CLUSTER (ROUGHLY 40%
OF MEMBERS) FAVORING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AS OPPOSED TO THE
SECONDARY CLUSTER (25% OF MEMBERS) WHICH FAVORS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED IN NORTHERN IL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE
STRONGER SURFACE LOW SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (60-80%) FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WITH MUCH
LOWER PROBABILITIES (20-40%) FOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE WEAKER
SURFACE LOW SCENARIO. IN ANY CASE, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES (60-80%) FOR AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOW LATE
THIS WEEK.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THIS WEEK, OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO RECORD WARM LOWS AS THE
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL MAKE IT MORE CHALLENGING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
40S SOUTH OF I-94. HOWEVER, AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECTING A COOLING TREND
TO BEGIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE INTER-
QUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 40.
UPCOMING WEEKEND: SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL COLD
ADVECTION TO WORK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE NBM INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD
RANGES ANYWHERE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S AND INTO THE 30S FOR HIGHS
BY SATURDAY. SO WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS OPPOSED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE COMPARABLE
TO LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE RISK
FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG LESS THAN 10% FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH FROM 08-13Z AT
10-15G15-25KTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
DECOUPLE AND RESULT IN A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF LLWS (WITH THE
THREAT AREA MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THAT TIME SPAN). WINDS
LESSEN AROUND SUNRISE AND BACK TO THE WEST/NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
AT 5-10KTS AND TO THE EAST AFTER SUNSET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
HERE ARE SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER FROM FEBRUARY 16 THROUGH FEBRUARY
16.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 59 (1931) / 54
LA CROSSE, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 56
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
WARM LOW TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 35 (1931) / 38
LA CROSSE, WI 40 (1981) / 34
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...SKOW
CLIMATE...NAYLOR
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