140
FXUS63 KARX 150825
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
225 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
30S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCE (60 TO 80%) IS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THEN
SWITCH TO WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: WARMER AND DRIER
A NICE BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PUSHING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AND WILL HELP TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S TODAY. COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THIS EARLY WEEK WAS GOING TO HAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE, HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIP DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND BOTH GEFS AND EPS
MEMBERS SHOW THIS AS WELL AS NO MEMBERS HAVE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTED FOR TAYLOR COUNTY. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GET INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: RAIN/SNOW?
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS FROM THE 00Z LREF HAVE MOST MEMBERS
PUSHING THE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, HOWEVER THERE IS ABOUT 40% OF
MEMBERS, MAINLY THE GEFS AND GEPS THAT HAVE THE LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH.
ONE OF THE CLUSTERS, INCLUDES 30% GEFS AND ABOUT 10% ENS, DEPICTS
THIS LOW CROSSING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND IN THAT SCENARIO, WE
WOULD BE COLDER A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
SUGGEST. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GENERALLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2" RANGE.
THE LREF PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 0.1" SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST AS
THERE IS A 50 TO 80% CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE MOSTLY GONE
AWAY AS TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND
THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE ARRIVES AND THEN AS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA, A SHIFT TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. ONE THING
TO NOTE IS THAT WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION, WHILE IT WILL
START OUT AS RAIN, DEPENDING ON RAIN RATE AND DEGREE OF COOLING,
SNOW COULD OVERTAKE THE RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THIS IS SHOWN IN GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AS THE INITIAL WAVE IS
RAIN AND BY THE END OF THE FIRST WAVE, SNOW REPLACES THE RAIN
FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION RATE. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, HOWEVER IT IS
ONLY LOW AMOUNTS. BASED ON LREF PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN
0.3" THERE IS A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR THIS AMOUNT TO OCCUR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90.
AFTER THURSDAY, ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN AND RESULTS
IN LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(15 TO 25%) LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KLSE GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE GUSTS AND AMPLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 12Z. KRST SHOULD SEE SURFACE GUSTS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS LEADING TO LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE INSTEAD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING WHILE VEERING TO A MORE
WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH CONTINUED WAA OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
SNOWPACK, FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTS LIKELY
OCCURRING BEYOND THE 06Z ENDPOINT OF THIS PACKAGE. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT RST WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE BUT CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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