695  
FXUS63 KARX 162349  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
649 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ON AND OFF SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR  
MOST SHOULD STAY AT OR BELOW 0.50 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER  
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN  
WISCONSIN.  
 
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF COLD  
FRONT. SEASONAL, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
TODAY - SATURDAY: OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES, WARM TEMPERATURES  
 
OUR AREA SITS IN THE CREST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS GRADUALLY  
PHASING EAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS TRAVERSING THE  
RIDGE AND HAS HELPED TO SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WEAK  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS ALSO  
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AMIDST AN  
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, REPRESENTED BY PWATS OF  
1.3-1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH  
MOST AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF I-94 DRYING OUT BY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXITS THE AREA, A UPPER LOW AND  
TROUGHING REGIME WILL FOLLOW IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. THE CUT-OFF LOW  
CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT  
NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT TO REJOIN THE MAIN JET-STREAM THROUGH  
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY  
RESIDING OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WILL LOOK TO FOLLOW SUIT.  
BECAUSE OF THIS, ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH  
THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT SOME  
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THE PARENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO, THE COLD  
FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IT  
ISN'T UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH LAGS BEHIND THE UPPER LOW,  
FINALLY PIVOTS COUNTERCLOCKWISE AND MAKES PROGRESS THROUGH THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL GIVE THE NEEDED  
PUSH TO MOVE THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA AND FINALLY BRING RAIN  
CHANCES TO AN END (BRIEFLY).  
 
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW,  
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S, WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT MAKING MUCH  
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES  
WILL STILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
SUNDAY - MID NEXT WEEK: PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, NEAR NORMAL TEMPS  
 
WITH THE FRONT FINALLY OFF TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO  
SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND POST-  
FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW  
60S. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A BRIEF UPPER  
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT  
LIVED AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND LOW SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY  
MID-WEEK. WITH THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN COMES LOW CHANCES FOR  
RAIN 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CURRENT  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE A LOT MORE LIMITED WITH AN  
OVERALL LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM(S) SO  
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE LOW POPS FOR NOW GIVEN USUAL UNCERTAINTY  
100+ HOURS OUT. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH BENIGN FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN THE 50S  
AND 60S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT.  
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WHICH COMBINED  
WITH A 40-60 DEGREE WIND SHIFT IN THE LOWEST 2KFT LEADS TO FAVORABLE  
CONDITIONS FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LOW  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXISTS FOR THOSE SITES LOCATED WITHIN VALLEYS,  
BUT ALL SITES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  
 
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO CREEP NORTHWARD THROUGH  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER  
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WILL  
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAILING AFTER. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM  
RETURN FRIDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION  
(20-40%), RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE  
AVIATION...FALKINHAM  
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