286
FXUS63 KARX 262353
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
653 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY (60-70%) SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON.
- A SMALL (15-20%) CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/EAST OF I-94
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF SNOW SHOWERS DO FORM,
BRIEF IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR.
- DRY AND BREEZY FOR SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- AFTER A COOL FRIDAY, A WARMING TREND IS FAVORED THROUGH
TUESDAY. MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP (30-50%) NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 1-2" OF RAIN IF ALL DETAILS COME
TOGETHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON
AREA OF RADAR RETURNS IS SEEN AROUND THE MN/IA BORDER
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AXIS OF 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. MARGINAL
MOISTURE PROFILES INCLUDING A ~10F SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
HAVE PREVENTED MUCH RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THAT SAID,
GIVEN FORCING INVOLVED, HAVE CARRIED LIKELY (60-70%) MENTIONS OF
RAIN SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON, ALBEIT WITH VERY LOW
(<0.05") AMOUNTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA - SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MUCAPE IS NEAR 0
J/KG AND LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH IS SEEN WITH SHOWERS MOVING
EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IA.
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/EAST OF I-94 FRIDAY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS BY CENTRAL WI FRIDAY. THIS MAY (15%) LEAD TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH/EAST OF I-94 WHERE THE DGZ BRIEFLY BECOMES
SATURATED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE LIKELY KEEPING SNOW
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THAT SAID, BRIEF, SHARP REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS PROGGED 26.12Z HREF
MEAN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 9 C/KM.
DRY AND BREEZY SATURDAY
SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THE EAST COAST,
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, NEXT ROUND
OF LEE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR IN CO/WY. WITH OUR CWA BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES, INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND HEIGHT GRADIENT
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN UPSURGE IN WINDS. PROGGED 26.12Z GFS 850MB
WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS ARE A GOOD BET (50-70% TO EXCEED 35 MPH PER
26.12Z LREF). HAVE BOOSTED WIND SPEEDS OVER 26.13Z NBM OUTPUT GIVEN
THIS PATTERN AND PROPENSITY FOR NBM WINDS TO BE TOO LOW,
PARTICULARLY ON BREEZY DAYS. IN ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH
A VERY DRY LAYER FAVORED TO BE PRESENT AROUND 800MB BY THE MORNING
HOURS, EXPECT SURFACE RH VALUES TO PLUMMET AS MIXING OCCURS. THAT
SAID, EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM IN THE LREF (ECENS/GEFS/CMCE) SUGGESTS
ONLY A SMALL (<20% CHANCE) FOR RH VALUES TO DROP LOW ENOUGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, UNLIKE AREAS TO OUR
WEST. HAVE THEREFORE ESCHEWED ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AS HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
COMES IN AS, ON THESE DRY AND BREEZY DAYS, USUALLY THE DRIEST
GUIDANCE WINS OUT.
WARM UP, MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEK
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
BUILDS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER A COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S FAVORED MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST INCREASES MARKEDLY FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE
OF TIMINGS AND TRAJECTORIES WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
MOVING OVER CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
PARTS OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. INTERQUARTILE
TEMPERATURE RANGES JUMP FROM AROUND 8 DEGREES F MONDAY TO 20 DEGREES
F TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SIMILAR LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY ARE PRESENT FOR THE PRECIP SIDE
OF THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS WIDESPREAD PRECIP LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF SAID FRONT WHEN A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD. 26.12Z OPERATIONAL GFS/EC CONTRAST
ILLUSTRATES THE WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES - GFS HAS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE EC HAS THIS
FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN TX TO MI. GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN OUTCOMES,
FORECAST INCLUDES NBM POPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY AROUND 30-50% ACROSS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO HONE IN ON A
SHORTER PERIOD, POTENTIALLY OUTSIDE OUR CWA, DOWN THE ROAD. GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT, ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM QPF VALUES DO ACCORDINGLY SHOW CORRIDORS OF
1-2"+ OF RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WILL NEED TO WATCH NEXT WEEK CLOSELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR OVER THE COMING
HOURS WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING BECOMING LESS
THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS POSSIBLE
BY THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SNOWMELT DRIVEN FLOODING ON THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH
CONTINUES TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHOUT ANY MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AHEAD UNTIL NEXT WEEK, THIS SHOULD MOVE
BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...FERGUSON
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