905
FXUS63 KARX 110535
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1235 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, AND A 20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN INTERSTATES 90 AND 94.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
POSSIBLY COLDER AT THE END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD
WARMTH NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 18C TO 21C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL. LIKE MUCH OF LAST
WEEK, THE NBM HAS BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE ON ITS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AS A RESULT, CONTINUED WITH DOING A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO BRING UP THESE TEMPERATURES. ON SUNDAY,
THIS BLEND STILL LOOKED TO BE TOO COOL SO ADDED SOME 850 MB
MIXED- DOWN (WHICH RANGED FROM THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90) TO BUMP
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S ON BOTH DAYS, AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THIS
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA A BIT SLOWER, THERE COULD BE SOME
WARM LOW RECORDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FOR OCTOBER
12.
THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. AS A RESULT, WENT WITH A 20-40 PERCENT OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN INTERSTATES 90 AND 94, AND ANYWHERE FROM A
40 TO 70 PERCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS A 40-70 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
AND AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THOSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR
INTERSTATE 90.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S. THERE
ARE FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN COLDER AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW (LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT) THAT THEY WILL
OCCUR.
THE NBM HAS SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
SIMON GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. MANY OF THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS KEEPS THIS
MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, SO KEPT THESE RAIN CHANCES LESS
THAN A 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING HOURS WITH
A MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
TURBULENCE INSTEAD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL
IN GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT GUSTS TO BETWEEN 18-25 KTS
SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.
GUSTS SHOULD FINALLY TAPER OFF WITH WINDS FINALLY STARTING TO
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY.
LA CROSSE, WI (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/11 86F (1928) / 87F 66F (1928) / 64F
10/12 87F (1995) / 87F 65F (1896) / 70F
ROCHESTER, MN (RECORD/FORECAST):
DATE HIGH TEMPERATURE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
----- --------------- ---------------
10/11 84F (2015) / 84F 65F (1928) / 66F
10/12 85F (1975) / 85F 61F (2008) / 66F
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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