401
FXUS63 KARX 301054
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
554 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT) MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THIS WEEKEND
THE OMEGA HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL HAVE A 20 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES,
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY 1 TO 2C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE THE MID-40S TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT, AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE WINDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL INCREASE INTO THE
10 TO 20 MPH WITH MAYBE A GUST TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S. MEANWHILE, IN WESTERN WISCONSIN, THE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
A COL REGION DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A TROUGH MOVES NORTH INTO THIS REGION AND GETS STRETCHED AND
WEAKENS OVER TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST
THE BETTER INSTABILITY (UP TO 2500 J/KG) WILL GET. IN ADDITION,
THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON HOW STRONG WILL BE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ON MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE 0-3 KM SHEAR.
AS A RESULT, THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS FAR
LESS FOR THE AREA IF THAT MODEL SOLUTION OCCURS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
THE OMEGA HIGH WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY, AND THEN LINGER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S.
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE OMEGA HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN AND
BECOME ZONAL. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. 0-1 KM ML CAPES WILL BE UP TO 750 J/KG ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE 0-3 KM SHEAR
CLIMBS UP 30 KNOTS. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-80S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTS OF 15-20KT, STRONGEST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY BECOMING
10KT OR LESS, BUT MAY LINGER TOWARDS 15KT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
THE 30.00Z HREF/REFS SUGGESTING A 10-20% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR THOSE CLOSER TO I-35. IF SHOWERS DO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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