940
FXUS63 KARX 021728
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1228 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 4 PM TO 8 PM THIS
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA, SOUTHEAST OF A OELWEIN IA TO RICHLAND CENTER
WI LINE. A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS PRESENT
IN SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY WI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLAYTON
COUNTY IA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS BUT A
TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THEY OCCUR, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
- COMBINED EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT INTO THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO RISES
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. FLASHIER OR ALREADY HIGHER
RUNNING BASINS SUCH AS THE KICKAPOO, TURKEY, AND BLACK, MAY
SEE MINOR (5-40% CHANCE) FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
ONGOING ICE ACCRETION THIS AFTERNOON:
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED TO NEAR AND A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, EAST SURFACE WINDS HAVE LOCKED THE COLDER
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LIMITING WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT ADDITIONAL
ICE ACCRETIONS BEING OBSERVED ON TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAUSING
CONCERN FOR POWER OUTAGES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE,
HAVE EXTENDED THE PREVIOUS ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 18Z AND
ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES
FROM DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT PRIMARILY LIES ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERAL COUNTIES IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN JOG IS EXPECTED AS STORMS NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA, GLANCING THE SOUTHERN MOST PERIPHERAL COUNTIES IN
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AMOUNT OF CLEARING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY,
SUBSEQUENT NORTHERN EXTENT OF STORMS AND INTENSITY. CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED FOR AMOUNT OF CLEARING, KEEPING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE MOSTLY SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL TORNADO SHOULD SURFACE
CLEARING OCCUR, ALLOWING STORMS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
SUBSEQUENT STORM POTENTIAL DURING ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR
EASTERN SHUNT TO MESO-LOW OCCLUSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHUNTS
MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT CURRENT
FORECAST HOUR. WHILE A SIMILAR DEPENDENCE AND DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
FORECAST MODELS HINGE ON SKY COVER AND ASSOCIATED AVAILABILITY OF
BUILDING INSTABILITY NORTH INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DISCREPANCIES SURROUNDING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPNESS AFFECT STORM SOLUTIONS. WHILE SELECT MODELS SUGGEST STEEP
LAPSE RATES INFILTRATING THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
PENETRATING FAR NORTH THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, ELEVATED STORMS LIMIT SEVERE HAZARDS TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. TIMING WILL BE SLIGHTLY LATER, ALBEIT
DEPENDENT ON CYCLOGENESIS AND SYNOPTIC FORCING, LASTING STORM
THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONGOING RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT LOW CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN. SOME INDICATION FOR FOG IN GUIDANCE BUT LOW LEVEL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL REMAIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE
SURFACE. THIS MOISTURE AND THUS STRATUS SHOULD (70%+) REMAIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED AFTER THE
PERIOD ENDS 18Z FRIDAY. NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD VFR
ISN'T UNTIL SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST 48 HOUR TOTALS OF 2"+
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FLASHIER RIVERS SUCH AS THE
KICKAPOO AND POTENTIALLY TURKEY WOULD THEREFORE BE INITIALLY
IMPACTED WITH RISES. THESE QPF FORECASTS WOULD RIDE RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE ACTION NEAR MINOR FLOODING AT SITES ALONG THE KICKAPOO.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE MODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SELECT SPOTS AND WARRANT FURTHER MONITORING IN
COMING FORECASTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...JAR
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
HYDROLOGY...JAR
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