447
FXUS63 KARX 230613
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
113 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
- QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IN OUR REGION, NOTHING AT ALL, OR RAIN FOR
JUST SOME OF US. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER AND
TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THIS EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY: LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO RIDE THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN KEEPING US WARM AND DRY. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME
MODEST MOIST ADVECTION AT 850MB, COULD (10-20% PER 23.00Z NBM/HREF
AND 22.12Z LREF) PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWER AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW BARRELS
EASTWARD OVER CANADA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER, WITH THIS FEATURE FAILING TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW THAT LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR
CWA. AS THIS OCCURS, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. THUS, AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS UPPER LOW, SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF MODEST COOLING ALOFT, MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT. THINK ITS A PRETTY GOOD BET SOME
SPOTS WILL PICK UP SOME RAIN BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST MOIST
FETCH JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE THEREFORE CARRIED SOME LOW (10-
20%) POPS IN OUR AREA FOR NOW.
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY: GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, TRENDING COOLER
GREATER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. HOW
THIS FEATURE EVOLVES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL OCCUR REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN
THOUGH. THE GEFS/AIGEFS MEMBERS LARGELY SUGGEST THE LOW TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY, KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (60-80%)
WHEREAS THE EPS/AIFS ENS ON THE OTHER HAND SUGGEST A MORE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SOLUTION, KEEPING HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN ON THE LOWER END, CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 30-
40% IN THE 23.01Z NBM THOUGH THESE PROBABILITIES MAY INCREASE AS THE
MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
OTHER THAN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THE PASSAGE OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD
WITHIN THE 25TH-75TH AND 10TH-90TH PERCENTILES OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE RELATED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER, AROUND 10 AND 20 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY, DUE IN NO
SMALL PART TO THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS MENTIONED ABOVE. THAT SAID,
THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SAVE THE
USUAL RIVER FOG AROUND OVS. SMALL (10-20%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AUM-VOK LINE BUT FLIGHT RULE
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AS WELL.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON/FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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