019  
FXUS63 KARX 241718  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1118 AM CST WED FEB 24 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST WED FEB 24 2021  
 
WHILE MOST OF THE REGION STAYED DRY OVERNIGHT, CURRENT RADAR SHOWED A  
BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN  
EASTWARD THROUGH DOOR COUNTY WISCONSIN. THIS BAND HAS BEEN WELL  
ALIGNED WITH FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCED FORCING AS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED  
IN THE RAP MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN, BUT A FINAL ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL  
SWING THROUGH LATER THIS EARLY MORNING BEFORE THIS SYSTEM COMPLETELY  
EXITS THE REGION. EARLIER THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING  
HAS ALLOWED SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. THE  
MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL HAS  
REDUCED OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL  
POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY BY 6 AM THIS MORNING,  
WITH ONLY A TRACE UP TO 1 INCH FOR NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY.  
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, WINDS BECOME MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING. UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING WEAK LOW, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ONLY  
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER, IF OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY WITHOUT FALLING TOO MUCH BY  
DAYBREAK, THEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY EASILY BE OVERACHIEVED AND A  
FEW LOCATIONS MAY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR  
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S TONIGHT.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOWMELT TO REFREEZE. POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS MAY  
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST WED FEB 24 2021  
 
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S AND  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY  
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE LOW 40S FOR SOME ON  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 20S.  
 
AN ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES. SOME  
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE REGION  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.  
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP IN DECENT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION  
AND PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THEN SATURATES THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW  
700 MB AS BEING SHOWN FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BY THE TIME  
SATURATION FULLY OCCURS, SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEN DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE COLUMN SATURATES  
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE  
MAY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. DETAILS  
WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BEING  
RELATIVELY MESSY AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES AND SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL  
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HANDLING THIS ACTIVE PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED FEB 24 2021  
 
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND  
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY  
FROM THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH  
WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS  
THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS  
THE ONE THE WENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. IT IS  
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS TO BOTH AIRPORTS AND  
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FLURRIES. FOR NOW, WILL NOT INCLUDE THE  
FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST GIVEN MINIMAL IMPACT AND LOW CONFIDENCE  
ON AREAL COVERAGE.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PETERS  
LONG TERM...PETERS  
AVIATION...04  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WI Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page