814
FXUS63 KARX 111100
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
- QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TODAY: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS UPON US AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SHIFTING THE WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF TRACKS DIRECTLY
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT EVENTUALLY MAKES IT IS STILL A BIT OF AN UNCERTAINTY AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF ANY REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION.
THAT SAID, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 850HPA MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IN TOE. CONVERGENCE ON
THE NOSE OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS
IOWA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL EXIST PER THE 11.03Z
RAP, DEVELOPING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. 11.00Z CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS MCS LARGELY REMAINS
SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT THOSE IN NORTHEAST IOWA, ESPECIALLY THOSE
CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THOSE IN FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THIS MORNING SYSTEM (60-
80%). THIS MCS WOULD PRIMARILY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTED 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, MOST FAVORABLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE THE WARM SECTOR IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED TO SET-
UP. SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE DEPICTED IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WHICH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH 40-60KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR, VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5C/KM, STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS, AND
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS RESULTING IN 0-1KM
SRH OF >200 M2/S2. THE OVERALL STORM MODE LOOKS TO BE SEMI-DISCRETE
TO LINEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF THESE THREE, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY IN INITIALLY DEVELOPING STORMS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS PWATS
OF 1.5-2 INCHES OVERSPREAD OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THESE AREAS
RECEIVED GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY PER MRMS QPE
WITH THE 11.00Z REFS LPMM SUGGESTING ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES COULD FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) FOR GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS YESTERDAY
AND SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TODAY COULD FACE SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES SIT AROUND 30-60% IN THE 10.19Z NBM, HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE GREATEST
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE EXISTS. BEYOND THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
POTENTIAL DEVELOP BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING HOURS BRINGING MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO THE TERMINALS (POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE STRONGER STORMS). THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE
GONE WITH VCTS AND SHRA AT THE TERMINALS IN LIEU OF STRAIGHT
TSRA FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH NE IOWA AND SW WISCONSIN, WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN TO A MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS IT PASSES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ017-029-034.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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