687
FXUS63 KDMX 230402
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1102 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLY COOL MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- MORE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
CUMULUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
VERTICAL GROWTH HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THAT IS ALSO SEEN IN PROXIMITY SOUNDING PROFILES WHERE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR 5-6 KFT OF VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CUMULUS. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO TRANSLATE INTO SHOWERS AND AT THIS POINT, NO ICE
HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE CLOUD TOPS. OTHERWISE, THE STATE IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING, WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE
LIGHT WINDS TO THE STATE.
FOR TONIGHT, A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WILL
ENTER FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION OVER THAT REGION.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY FOLLOW THE CORFIDI VECTORS
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. THERE REMAINS A LOW
CHANCES SOME PRECIPITATION MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA ON
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS IOWA. THE OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK AND
LAPSE RATES MOSTLY BELOW 6 C/KM, THEREFORE, AGAIN NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL/WESTERLY MUCH
OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DESCENDS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THIS SETUP WILL DEFAULT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER IOWA INITIALLY. THAT
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY STEEPER AS THE HIGH PUSHES WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WEAK IMPULSE
PASSAGE FRIDAY THEN A GREATER CHANCES WITH THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION
ARRIVAL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
REMAINS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF LIGHT BR OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE/IMPACT. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AFTER 00Z WED (TUE EVENING), WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AND HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT FOD/MCW WHERE THERE MAY BE BRIEF IMPACTS A
LITTLE BEFORE 06Z. THIS WILL BE FLESHED OUT FOR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page