455
FXUS63 KDMX 241957
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
257 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
DISCUSSION
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
--SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES REMAIN INTO TUESDAY,
MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST.
--PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
--WARMER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS GENERALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER MINNESOTA/THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL IT DEPARTS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, THESE WEAK SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN IOWA, INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SCATTERED
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ON
MONDAY (THOUGH STILL <40%) OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER FAR EAST TODAY AND
NORTHEAST HALF TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOME
MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE, BUT CHANCES OVERALL ARE PRETTY LOW
WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN OUR AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALSO HELP LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY
FOG AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE EXPECTED LIGHT
WINDS. MORNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG, BUT AREAS NORTHEAST - TOWARDS WATERLOO - MAY HAVE THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES. LOWS TONIGHT/HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING/TODAY WITH THE COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW (IF ANY) WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE - A FEW SPRINKLES TO MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS IF AN
AREA SOMEHOW GOT A STRONGER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) SHOWER. CHANCES
FOR MORE MEASURABLE RAIN INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTH TO NORTHEAST AREAS AS THE LOW SAGS
SOUTHEAST WHERE A FEW TENTHS TO MAYBE UPWARDS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL ALSO STAY DRY. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER QPF VALUES WITH THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE OF THE LOW ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY
THROUGH REALLY THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE BETTER PARAMETER
SPACE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
ANY LINGERING RAINFALL LOOKS TO RAP UP BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
MAINLY DRY MID-LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE AREA WITH UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERN U.S. WITH
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL COME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS LOOK TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO IN THE 80S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
/FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
AFTER A MORNING WITH LINGERING FOG/LOW STRATUS, CONDITIONS HAVE
RETURNED TO VFR FOR THE MOST PART AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT
WAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST SITES. SOME CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGING
SOME SCT-BKN CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH/NORTHEAST SITES. SOME HINTS AT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR KALO SO HAVE STARTED WITH
MENTIONS THERE AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TRENDS FOR OTHER
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW TAF CYCLES. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...KCM
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