055  
FXUS63 KDMX 221956  
AFDDMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
256 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING.  
 
- ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY, BEFORE CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
>> BRIEF QUIET PERIOD  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED OUT OF  
THE AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING OVER NORTH  
CENTRAL MISSOURI, AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES  
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT  
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AND  
REMAIN GENERALLY CALM, AROUND 5 TO 10 MILES PER HOUR. WINDS WILL  
AGAIN PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15  
MILES PER HOUR, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MILES PER HOUR AHEAD  
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH  
DAKOTA.  
 
>> ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
 
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA,  
A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA, BRINGING  
SURFACE DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A COLD FRONT  
SWEEPS ACROSS NEBRASKA, GENERATING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS  
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO IOWA IN THE EVENING HOURS.  
CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS A SMALLER BATCH OF  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THOUGH THE  
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST, OVER  
MOST OF NEBRASKA, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA, WITH A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES IN  
IOWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS TIME APPEARS  
TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER  
STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO WILL  
KEEP THE MENTION FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.  
 
>> WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND  
 
AS STORMS EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING, ANOTHER BRIEF  
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN, GIVING A SLIGHT BREAK FROM  
PRECIPITATION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS OFF THE ROCKY  
MOUNTAINS AND QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE  
RELATIVELY DRY, HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING  
IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS  
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI, ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO STALL A BIT IN SPEED, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI,  
SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
CHANGES. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER  
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND TRACK OF  
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS  
IA. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS  
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS  
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS  
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RICHIE  
AVIATION...TAYLOR  
 
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