953
FXUS63 KDMX 301136
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- WARMER AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH CLOUD
COVER SPREADING INTO IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION ARE PRETTY DRY WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15 DEG F. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLOW
TO SATURATE INTO THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH MIDDAY AND EARLY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL IOWA IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY SPOTTY. BY THIS AFTERNOON PROFILES SATURATE AND CAMS
DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DOESN'T QUITE PHASE AND ENDS UP PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PROVIDING ANOTHER WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FINAL LOBE OF VORTICITY ROTATES
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FINAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS
FINALLY ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE PARENT TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE ENTIRE PERIOD HAS MEAGER INSTABILITY
WITH UNDER 500 J/KG MLCAPE AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A WELL
DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION. AS SUCH, SEVERE
CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW THOUGH RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE CERTAINLY
ANTICIPATED. A WIDESPREAD 0.25" OF QPF IS FORECAST WITH HREF
LPMM PAINTING MUCH OF THE AREA AS SUCH WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE WESTERN US THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S ACROSS IOWA. A RATHER ROBUST SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN US DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL US
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TIMING AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED LATER. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOWS, A DELAY IN ARRIVAL NEXT WEEK IS
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY, REMAINING VFR
MUCH OF THE DAY. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO START MAKES TIMING A CHALLENGE AND AMENDMENTS ARE
LIKELY. OVERNIGHT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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