187  
FXUS63 KDMX 150459  
AFDDMX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA  
1159 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
CONVECTION THAT STARTED OUT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA  
IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAS NOT  
DIED. STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY DROPPING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
ANYWHERE FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING.  
 
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING THAT IS CONVECTION FREE BUT  
A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND BRUSH  
NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL IOWA IOWA. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH  
A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TRAVERSING THE STATE OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS  
BEST OVER NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA SO THE BETTER/STRONGER  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SHEAR IS WEAK BUT THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE  
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWAT'S INCREASING TO 1.7 INCHES.  
 
PRECIP THREAT PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING BUILDING  
IN. RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 80S WITH  
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE  
NEAR 90 SO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG SYSTEM CARVES A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO  
THE REGION. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THEN  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR  
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT/  
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT  
THAT WILL PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE DONE  
BY 12Z. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THERE WILL BE  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...FAB  
AVIATION...DONAVON  
 
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