791
FXUS63 KDMX 141948
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
248 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZED.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS IOWA NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX
WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN NORTHERN IOWA.
THEN A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0 WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -10S TO
-20S.
- STRONG WINDS WILL GUST 55-65+ MPH, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS SETTING UP TO BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS
TO IOWA BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN AS IT PASSES ACROSS IOWA ON SUNDAY. INITIALLY IN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WING, SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS IOWA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BRINGING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX, THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR ZERO.
THIS STRONG LOW WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OF 55-65+ MPH, RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.
EACH FACET OF THE STORM WILL BE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW.
..CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW WAS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST
THIS WILL LIFT ACROSS IOWA AND INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A HEAVY SNOW BAND SET UP WITH
THIS TRENDING NORTH OF IOWA COMPARED TO DATA EARLIER THIS WEEK.
WHILE IOWA WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON SNOW FROM THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WING, A PLUME OF 500 - 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL
EXTEND INTO IOWA ALONG WITH 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-50+ KTS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP IN THIS WARM
SECTOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS EARLY AS 3-4 AM IN THE WEST AND
EXITING EAST BY 8-10 AM. EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY ELEVATED HAIL
WITH THIS CONVECTION ON SUNDAY MORNING.
..TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY, STARTING
THE DAY IN THE 40S AND 50S AND ENDING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR
ZERO. COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS (DISCUSSED BELOW), WIND CHILLS BY
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE -20S NORTH TO -10S
SOUTH. THIS COULD BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE THAT
BECOMES STRANDED WHILE TRAVELING OR IF THE STRONG WINDS RESULT
IN POWER OUTAGES.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE WITH THAT
WINTRY MIX. SNOW MAY INITIALLY BE WET AND HEAVY, BUT AS THE
COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FLUFFY. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SHARP COLD FRONT BENEATH THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE, AND
THIS WILL HELP REDUCE THE TIME PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE. A SLUSHY LAYER MAY DEVELOP AT SNOW ONSET AS
SNOW FALLS ON PREVIOUSLY WET GROUND FROM EARLIER LIQUID RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY, THIS WILL FREEZE QUICKLY, LIKELY
CREATING A LAYER OF ICE BENEATH THE SNOW THAT FALLS LATER IN THE
DAY. THESE LAYERS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO REMOVE. SNOW
WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND HIGHLY BLOWABLE, CREATING A
DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS. SNOW TAPERS
OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
..SNOW AMOUNTS
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) WILL BE LOW INITIALLY DUE TO THE WINTRY
MIX. DESPITE DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYERS THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE (DGZ) AND STRONG OMEGA WITH A VERY COLD SOUNDING PROFILE, SLRS
WILL REMAIN LIMITED LATER IN THE EVENT BY THE VERY STRONG WINDS.
WITH GUSTS OF 55-65+ MPH ANTICIPATED, EXPECT FRAGMENTATION OF
DENDRITES TO REDUCE RATIOS. WHILE THE NBM PRODUCED 18-20:1
RATIOS, THESE WERE PULLED BACK CLOSER TO 12-14:1.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WING IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NORTH OF THE IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER, THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL STILL PIVOT ACROSS IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 3-7+ INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS IOWA. FRONTOGENESIS IS
STRONG THROUGH 700MB WITH THE 700 MB FRONT LAGGING THE SURFACE
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFT TO ENHANCE SNOW
TOTALS. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR HIGHER END TOTALS OF 6-10" TO BE
REALIZED IN A FEW LOCATIONS IF THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP IN THE
RIGHT PLACE.
..HIGH WIND
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW BRINGS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT - ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NEEDED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE 60-70+ KTS AT 850MB
WITH DEEP MIXING TO AND BEYOND THAT LAYER. AT THE SURFACE, AN
EXTREMELY TIGHT 70-80 UBAR/KM PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SETTING UP ACROSS
IOWA. ALL TO SAY, VERY STRONG WINDS OF 55-65+ MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON SUNDAY, TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WHITE-
OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH TRAVEL BECOMING
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THIS WIND COULD ALSO RESULT IN POWER
OUTAGES. AND LASTLY, WITH THE STRONG SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
HIGHLIGHTS IOWA INTO MISSOURI. WHILE THE BLIZZARD WARNING COVERS
THIS HAZARD, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN IOWA, VISIBILITY COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE
EVENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, GRAZING
NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION TO NORTHERN IOWA. THEREAFTER, WESTERN US
RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING
THE AREA QUIET AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW NEEDS TO BE MELTED, BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
THROUGH THE 60S AND MAKE A RUN AT LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 20-25+ KTS THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY
MORNING. BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS IOWA. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH AND BEHIND THIS LINE WITH GUSTS
30-40 KTS EXPECTED. THE SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES. A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN IOWA, AS
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES. KFOD WILL SEE THE TRANSITION
FIRST WITH THE FREEZING LINE REACHING KDSM/KOTM JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR WITH THE LEADING LINE
OF RAIN AND THEN TO IFR AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPROACHES. ALSO
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
PERIOD. GUSTS OF 50+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFTER 18Z ON SUNDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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