978
FXUS63 KDMX 032330
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH HAIL, TORNADOES, AND
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WITH THIS RISK HIGHEST IN URBAN AREAS.
- COOLER, BLUSTERY ON SATURDAY. A BIT MILDER, LESS WIND ON SUNDAY.
- INCREASES CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND STORMS MID INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS REMAIN LARGELY OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE INITIAL WAVE
OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS NORTHWARD.
AT THE SURFACE, ANALYSIS OF FEATURES SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS, WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS OF 2PM.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
MISSOURI, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO FAR SOUTHERN IOWA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE. OVER SOUTHERN IOWA, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE 60S, ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHERE
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOCATED. MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING AROUND
1500 J/KG, ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND SHEAR VALUES
INCREASING AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE IN
NATURE, ALLOWING FOR THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. WHILE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, THERE REMAINS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES, AS SOME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA
HAS OCCURRED IN A FEW LOCATIONS, THOUGH CLOUD COVER IS STILL
LARGELY OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CURVING
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER AROUND 300 M2/S2,
THOUGH DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY IN THE 1-3 LAYER AROUND 25-50
M2/S2. ALSO, THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER ALOFT SUGGEST THAT STORMS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED, BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THOUGH, A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
THE SPC FOR FAR SOUTHERN IOWA UNTIL 10PM. FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE
LINEAR IN MODE AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EVENING.
REGARDING RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE
NOTABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
IOWA IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PWATS TO INCREASE
AROUND 1.25-1.50 OVERHEAD. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER EAST/NORTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED, WHERE SOIL
MOISTURE PROFILES AT THIS POINT ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2+ INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING, CONTINUED RIVER
RISES IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERHEAD, WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERHEAD. GUSTS UP
TO 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. THERE
REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, A LARGE AREA OF RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW INTO IOWA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN, WITH THE BULK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OUT OF IOWA. INTO THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, BECOMING
MORE ZONAL INTO MIDWEEK. A FEW AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY, BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES HOWEVER EARLY IN THE WEEK TRY TO BRING SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE STATE. WILL SEE WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS DEPARTING FEATURE,
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
DISTRIBUTION OF WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS POINT, THE PATTERN IS SIGNALED TO TURN MORE ACTIVE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY,
LEADING TO THE START OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL
IA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING,
ENDING THE TS THREAT BY LATE EVENING. IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LIKELY RISE TO MVFR
LEVELS MID MORNING SATURDAY. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURY
LONG TERM...BURY
AVIATION...BORGHOFF/WFO MPX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page