688
FXUS63 KDMX 021143
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
KEY MESSAGING HIGHLIGHTS:
* LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
* ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MON/TUE, THEN DRIER LATER
NEXT WEEK
* SEASONAL HUMIDITIES GIVING WAY TO UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
EXPECTATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED A WHOLE LOT FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
WITH OUR WEATHER MAINLY INFLUENCED BY TWO LARGE SCALE PATTERNS.
THE FIRST WILL BE OUR GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT GREAT
LAKES UPPER RIDGE TO MORE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS
SHIFTED A TAD WEST OVER RECENT RUNS, BUT WON'T HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. OUR MAINLY DIURNAL, UNORGANIZED PRECIP
CYCLE WILL PERSIST BUT WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT PUSHING
OUR BETTER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST.
AT ONSET THIS MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE HOMOGENEOUS WITH LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY, BUT JUST ENOUGH 1-3KM MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR JUST A BIT OF A NOCTURNAL FORCING IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET RESPONSE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO PEAK HEATING, BETTER CHANCES WEST, AND MOST
STORMS WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE LOW.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A CONCERN HOWEVER WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS
AND MEAN WINDS ONLY 5-10KTS. SIMILAR CYCLES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED PRECIP MOVING EAST
TO WEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN RIDGE.
BY TUESDAY OUR SECOND PATTERN REGIME WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK, BUT
LARGER SCALE FORCING ADVANCING WITH THE NOTED AND DEEP BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MAINLY SHOWERS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ESSENTIALLY GOES TO NOTHING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A
LARGE EASTERN CONUS CLOSED LOW, WHOSE INFLUENCES HAVE NUDGED
FARTHER WEST WITH TIME AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING US WEAK NORTH FLOW
ALOFT, AND MS VALLEY SURFACE RIDGING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD, BUT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER THE MOST NOTED CHANGE WILL BE
ANOMALOUS DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN, INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE REFRESHING 40S, AND
POTENTIALLY 30S EAST, BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
/FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINATELY EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT TIMING AND LOCATION PREDICTABILITY IS
INSUFFICIENT FOR INCLUSION UNTIL TRENDS NOTE OTHERWISE.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMALL
AVIATION...SMALL
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