047
FXUS63 KDMX 152344
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA
OVERNIGHT.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- PROLONGED MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TRANQUIL MID-JUNE CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA TODAY. WIND HAS BEEN FROM
THE WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. IOWA IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE
BASE OF A BOARD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US,
WITH AN EMBEDDED PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SWING SOUTH THIS EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ARE POSSIBLE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WITH ONLY
MODEST SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES. MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION PAIRED WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS,
GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT TIMES, ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH WILL DEEPEN UPSTREAM ACROSS
MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACHING NORTHERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE IT TO
NORTHERN IOWA, MOVING ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR
THESE STORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT NOTED THAT A PORTION OF
THE RISK AREA WITHIN IOWA MAY HAVE A POCKET OF HIGHER THREAT TO BE
ASSESSED. AS IT STANDS, A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET (60+ KTS) WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NOSE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT,
PULLING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEFORE SHUNTING EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. A PLUME OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MUCAPE REACHES IOWA WITH
STORMS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT STORMS ARE ABLE TO GROW
UPSCALE AS THE MOVE INTO IOWA AND ENCOUNTER THE BETTER
INSTABILITY, FUELED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET AS THEY RACE EAST.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
INCREASES INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THIS
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT SETS UP, HINGING HEAVILY ON THE PATH AND
STRENGTH OF THE EARLY MORNING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS STORMS PUSH EAST WITH STRONGER SUBSIDENCE, COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE 30-45+ KTS THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY
TRANSLATE TO 30-40+ MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA. NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THE AREA
SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE ARE ALSO REPEATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WEAK WAVE WILL LIKLEY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN A MORE ROBUST
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS
WE LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE CPC NOTES CONTINUED COOLER
THAN AVERAGE AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TAFS ARE FORECAST TO START VFR AND REMAIN LARGELY VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING; HOWEVER, REMNANTS FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MAY CREATE BRIEF LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING
TERMINALS BUT OPTED TO USE PROB30 AS THE CHANCES ARE NONE ZERO.
ONCE CONVECTION WANES AFTER 12Z, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF, GUSTING TO
25KTS IN THE EAST.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAGENHOFF
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...VORST
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