231  
FXUS63 KDVN 020435  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1035 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
   
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
A QUIET, COOL AFTERNOON WAS UNFOLDING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA,  
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SKIES FEATURED PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST, WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH A WARM FRONT  
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200P RANGED FROM 34 IN DUBUQUE TO 40 IN THE QUAD  
CITIES.  
 
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A  
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ON TO THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE  
THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
[KEY MESSAGES]  
 
1) MILD AND WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH  
 
2) STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING BRINGS CRASHING TEMPERATURES AND  
VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT  
 
[DISCUSSION]  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12  
HOURS, AND IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES  
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND THE  
PRESENCE OF A EQUATORIAL JET ENTRANCE REGION WITH INCREASED  
DIVERGENCE WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP AND QUICKLY  
STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN WYOMING FRIDAY, WITH A QUICK TREK UP TO THE  
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACCOMPANYING THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE  
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE  
AREA FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE WILL BE SEEING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF  
BREEZY TO VERY GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON  
WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL AND CUT OFF  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RESTRENGTHEN BY  
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW GUSTY IT WILL GET FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS WE  
WILL BE DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW-  
LEVEL STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAMPER MIXING A BIT, KEEPING US FROM  
TAPPING INTO THE 40-50 KT LLJ. CURRENTLY HAVE AROUND 30-40 MPH FOR  
PEAK GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. IF THERE IS AN AREA THAT  
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, IT WOULD BE  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 WHICH WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL TO TAP  
INTO THE LLJ AND WHERE THE CORE OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER.  
 
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THIS  
FCST, BUT STILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG HWY 20  
TO MID 50S FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  
 
DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT, PRECIP CHANCES  
REMAIN LOW AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS THE EAST  
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HERE, SLIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED  
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
[KEY MESSAGES]  
 
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FAVORED FOR THE LONG  
TERM  
 
2) ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK  
 
[DISCUSSION]  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND  
CAA ACCOMPANYING IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO HINT AT MIXING  
TO AROUND 900 HPA, WITH A STRONG 50 KT 925-850 HPA JET JUST BEHIND  
THE FRONT. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST AROUND 45-50 MPH  
AT TIMES MID FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ENCOURAGE  
ANYONE WITH LOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS, ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS,  
TO TIED THEM DOWN IN PREPARATION FOR THE WINDS. THOSE DRIVING ON  
NORTH TO SOUTH ROADS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE A  
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY WILL BE AN EXACT REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY  
CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO  
LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME, AND  
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
KEEP US DRY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA,  
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY  
DECEMBER. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW  
40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. SKIES WILL  
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING  
MOISTURE ALOFT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING OVER THE AREA  
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT ON...  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY  
EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE  
BEEN FURTHER SOUTH IN LATEST RUNS. WHAT IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, IS A  
RETURN OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY (15Z) WITH LLWS DUE  
TO A STRONG LLJ. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION  
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY PM ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR  
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IF  
CEILINGS DROP BELOW 2KFT AGL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z THROUGH 04Z WITH LLWS POSSIBLE  
AHEAD OF IT. THE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A  
PERIOD OF GUSTINESS THAT COULD TOP 40-45 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS  
SHOULD RETURN TO PROMINENCE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SPECK  
SHORT TERM...SPECK  
LONG TERM...SPECK  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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