788
FXUS63 KDVN 051945
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY (BUT STILL NOT FAR FROM NORMALS) DAYS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH COLD NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT,
DEPENDING ON CLOUDS, WHEN A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
- A FEW PASSING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOWFALL IF THEY OCCUR.
- MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND HIGHER COVERAGE STILL POSSIBLE
BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN WILL CLIPPER IT'S WAY DOWN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TONIGHT. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS RATHER SCARCE BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE INCOMING LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SCTRD SHOWERS MOVING DOWN ACRS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA
THIS EVENING AND MOVING MAINLY OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AGAIN BY 1 AM OR
SO. ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER AND HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE GRIDS MAINLY
FOR NORTHEASTERN IA. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S BY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACRS THE UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY, WHILE LLVL FRONTAL GENESIS TAKES OFF ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN VIEW OF SOME DIGGING SHORT WAVES IN THAT REGION. ELEVATED
F-GEN FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LOOK TO INDUCE BANDED PRECIP
ZONES FROM THE MO RVR VALLEY DOWN TOWARD THE STL AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN MORE DRY AIR TO SATURATE AND OVERCOME, BUT AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY LATE MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST INITIAL RAIN, THEN
DYNAMICALLY COOLING TO MAINLY ALL SNOW AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO COULD LEAD TO A VERY
NARROW SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES AS LONG AS IT
OCCURS AT NIGHT. THE CONCENTRATED PRECIP BAND CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY OCCUR SOMEWHERE FROM THE OMAHA TO KIRKSVILLE MO AREAS AND
HEADLINE-ABLE SNOW AMOUNTS MAY FALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THAT PATH. IN
OUR AREA OF CONCERN, THE FAR NORTHEAST MO COUNTIES MAY GET UP TO AN
INCH ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER
MODEL RUNS TO FINER TUNE WHERE THE HIGHER BANDS OF SNOW MAY FALL.
BACK TO TEMPS, COOL MONDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. AS FOR THE
MONDAY NIGHT FREEZE, CLOUDS AND MAYBE LIGHT PRECIP MAY KEEP THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS OF THE SOUTH A BIT WARMER AND NOT BOTTOM OUT WITH
LOWS HANGING AROUND 30 OR LOW 30S. BUT PARTIAL CLOUDS AND DRY SFC
DPTS MAY ALLOW AREAS NORTH OF I-80 TO DIP INTO THE MID OR EVEN LOWER
20S BY TUE MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
TUESDAY...MID CONUS FLOW FLATTENS OUT INTO NEAR ZONAL ORIENTATION
AND THE NEIGHBORING SFC HIGH PULLS AWAY OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE
PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF WAA PRECIP TO FORM MORE AND
SPREAD UP ACRS MORE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT.
FCST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR MAINLY SNOW EVEN DURING THE
DAY, WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX AT TIMES BY LATE DAY AND INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH WARMING ALOFT CONTINUING TO TRY AND BATTLE IT'S WAY NORTHWARD.
SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING DURING THE DAY TUE, BUT MAY DO
SOME WET DUSTING TO LIGHT ACCUMS TUE EVENING. TUESDAY HIGHS HELD
WELL DOWN IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP, WITH TUE NIGHT LOWS NOT
MUCH COOLER THAN TUE AFTERNOON VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARMING AND WITH BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
PROGRESSES. IF PRECIP MOVES OUT, WED COULD BE MILD AS WARM SECTOR
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. ENSEMBLE UPPER JET PATTERNS LEAN TOWARD UPPER TROFFINESS
DEVELOPING ACRS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE A LLVL
BOUNDARY ORGANIZES AND PUSHES ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST ACTING AS A
PRECIP FOCAL POINT LATER WED INTO THU. THEN SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE
EVENTUALLY LAYING OUT ALONG WEST-TO-EAST TIGHTENING LLVL
BAROCLINICITY AND FLATTENED WESTERLY STEERING FLOW INTO FRI AND EVEN
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONVERGENT FOCUS FOR
SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST CONVEYOR TO IMPINGE UPON AND OVER FOR MORE
ROBUST PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME, BUT WHERE
THIS FRONT LAYS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SEVERAL OF THE LATEST
RUN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MORE ROBUST WITH NORTHERLY RIDGING SHUNTING THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A VFR AFTERNOON UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF A LARGE REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE...ENOUGH LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT HANGING ON TO
KEEP WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
THEN A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE WILL SCOOT DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCTRD SHOWERS BY MID
EVENING AT DBQ, AND POSSIBLY SKIRT THE CID AND MLI TERMINALS MID
TO LATE EVENING. BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND THE
SHOWERS MAY STAY HIGH BASED AND LIGHT, NOT REDUCING THINGS DOWN
TO MVFR AS THEY PASS BY. SOME WIND VEER BACK MORE NORTHWEST AND
A BIT OF AN INCREASE BEHIND THESE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL LOOK TO GET GUSTY AGAIN
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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