723  
FXUS63 KDVN 110648  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, FOR  
LOCATIONS NORTH OF OTTUMWA IA TO GALESBURG IL.  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, THERE  
IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND  
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR FRIDAY.  
 
- THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS,  
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS. FLASH FLOODING  
OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS MAY BE A CONCERN. RIVER  
FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN.  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO  
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
EVENING SURFACE BASED STORMS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN  
IOWA AND ARE CONTINUING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN IOWA AND  
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS OF 730 PM. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE  
WITH THESE, ESPECIALLY IN THE TIGHT MESOSCALE INTERACTION OF  
STORMS IN FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, WHERE BOTH A SHORT TERM WIND  
AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT ARE MAXIMIZED.  
 
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT NEW STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OVER HIGHER THAN  
2 INCHES. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE  
NIGHT, AND THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN ALL STORMS. THIS FIRST  
ROUND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SOME FLASH FLOODING, IN TERRAIN  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO IT ( DUBUQUE IA). ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD  
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT, THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE  
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR  
HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE STRONG HEATING, CUMULUS IS BEGINNING  
TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX  
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ACROSS  
EASTERN IOWA. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT  
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS APPEAR TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 INTO  
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLEARING THE  
AREA BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF  
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
THE MAIN HAZARD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED  
OUT. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A VERY MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT. VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF AREAS  
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY  
MORNING SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  
 
A BRIEF LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND  
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO  
DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.  
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW ALONG AND NORTH  
OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVENTUALLY  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS ONE OR MORE  
LINES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, A SLIGHT RISK  
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS  
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, FLASH FLOODING  
REMAINS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL  
THURSDAY OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS ON FRIDAY. RIVER FLOODING MAY  
BECOME A CONCERN AS WELL. AT PRESENT, TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH  
SATURDAY APPEARS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT  
RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN,  
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND EXIT THE AREA BY SATURDAY  
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
WITH THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN  
SEASONAL. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH OVERALL BEAUTIFUL  
JULY WEATHER FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD  
BRING THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE A POTENTIAL COLD  
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S MAY BE POSSIBLE  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
VERY BUSY PERIOD AHEAD WITH LOTS OF AVIATION HAZARDS WE'RE  
TRACKING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN  
IA AND NW IL THIS PERIOD.  
 
STORMS TONIGHT...WE'VE WATCHED AN MCS MOVE THROUGH THE DES  
MOINES METRO AND IT IS TRUCKING ALONG I-80. HOWEVER, AS IT  
MOVES EAST, IT WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STRONGER INSTABILITY  
AND LLJ THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING IT TO THIS POINT. THIS SHOULD  
RESULT IN A DECAYING REGION OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS EASTERN  
IA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8Z AND 13Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH OF  
BRL, WITH BEST TSRA CHANCES FOR CID AND MLI, WITH DBQ POSSIBILTY  
REMAINING NORTH OF MUCH OF THE TS AND JUST HAVING TO DEAL WITH  
RAIN.  
 
FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT... DBQ IS IN THE THICK OF IT, THOUGH WE  
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS RAIN MOVES INTO  
THE REGION.  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON STORMS... WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE  
REGION, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ALL TERMINALS SEEING ANOTHER ROUND  
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS  
AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED PLAYING UP THIS THREAT HARDER WITH  
PREVAILING AND TEMPO TS GROUPS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
CURRENT THINKING IS WITH THE 12Z AND 18Z TAFS, WE'LL JUST NEED  
TO REFINE THE TS TIMING.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-  
063>068-076>078.  
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-  
015>018-024.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...  
SHORT TERM...NWS  
LONG TERM...NWS  
AVIATION...NWS  
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