038
FXUS63 KDVN 281118
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
AS EXPECTED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING OVER WI
FIZZLED OUT BY 930PM AS THE STORMS LOST THEIR SUPPORT AND MOVED
INTO DRIER AIR. 06Z RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE 1025MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER
OUR EASTERN CWA OVER NORTHWEST IL, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
REPORTED BEHIND IT OVER NORTHEAST IL. TEMPERATURES AT 1AM, WERE
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IS IN STORE FOR
THE REGION, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT MAKES ITS WAY WEST
THROUGH THE CWA. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS, AND MIXING DOWN SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS/WINDS AS WE HAD
YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 70S THIS
MORNING AND TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK WAVE
REMAINS WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEWPOINTS TO
DROP INTO THE 40S AREA-WIDE AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S. TIME TO GIVE THE AC A
BREAK AND OPEN THOSE WINDOWS!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED, WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S/50S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
LIFT INTO WESTERN IA, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE LESS THAN 15% POPS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THINKING
THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AND THAT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW FROM
THE 1023MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WIN OUT AND KEEP ANY
PRECIP TO OUR WEST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALSO OF NOTE, THE
NBM HAS MINRH VALUES BELOW 40% AND DEWPOINTS UNDER 60 DEGREES
EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE OMEGA
BLOCK TO REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER MT AND SOUTHWEST
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE
TO START TO BREAK DOWN (HEIGHT FALLS). A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT
WITH A FEW WAVES TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THAT COULD BRING US SOME RAIN ALBEIT NOT LIKELY BENEFICIAL. AS
A RESULT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN/EXPAND OVER
THE COMING WEEKS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PRECIP OUTLOOKS FOR THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAVE 70-80%
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE. UNFORTUNATELY, IT WILL BE A WHILE
BEFORE LIQUID GOLD (RAIN) COMES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EAST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON TODAY, GENERALLY AROUND 10
KNOTS, UNDER CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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