852
FXUS63 KDVN 022320
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH MOST OF THE
AREA LIKELY TO STAY DRY INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
- OUTSIDE OF TODAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
- A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE THIS WEEK
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
THIS AFTERNOON: SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO WANE AS THE BETTER
MOIST AXIS HAS SHIFTED INTO IL TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SPC HAS
ONLY A SLIGHT RISK IN PUTNAM COUNTY WITH THE MARGINAL IN FAR
EASTERN IA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IL. DEEP SHEAR IS STILL
EVIDENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT THE COLD FRONT/DRY PUNCH IS
QUICKLY MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CAM'S SUGGEST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IA MOVING QUICKLY OUT OF OUR
AREA BY 6 PM. DRY AIR IS STARTING TO WIN OUT SO WE COULD EASILY
END UP DRY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEEP LOW (989 MB) IN NORTH-
CENTRAL IA LIFTING INTO WESTERN WI STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
DIMINISHING. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT NW IL) UNTIL 7 PM.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: DRY AND COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: DEEP TROUGH IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED THIS WEEKEND, WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS
WHERE TREMENDOUS RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. A WAVE
MOVING IN THIS FLOW MAY SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
MAINLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. POTENTIALLY AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY OCCUR IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH MUCH LESS RAIN
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY APRIL
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: GLOBAL MODELS SIMILAR IN DIVING A
VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WITH A BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS
THAN THE ECMWF. TIME WILL TELL. COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY, THEN INTO THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
MUCH MORE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS. A WRAP
AROUND DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS DBQ AND
CID LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ015>018-
024>026-034-035.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
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