140
FXUS63 KDVN 231932
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
232 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL
DOWN, THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IS THE ONLY TIME FRAME THAT HAS A
CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
SOUTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PASSING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A 5-10% CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO OR SLIGHLY ABOVE
NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY SO THE CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
OCCURRING ARE 5-10%.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIKE THE PREVIOUS DISTURBANCES, THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER IS EXTREMELY DRY SO THERE IS ONLY A 5-10% CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. LOW (<25%) CONFIDENCE ON THE SEVERE RISK AND RAIN CHANCES.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 80S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES, FIRE RISK AND OVERALL SEVERE RISK.
RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IS PROGGED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO ARRIVE IN THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING WITH THE FRONT AROUND THE I-80
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IF THIS TIMING IS CORRECT THEN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
POSSIBLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A BULK OF THE MOISTURE FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE KEY FOR
STORM AND RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CLEARLY SHOW THE MID AND LEVEL
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT ARE STILL DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS. THUS THE RAIN
AND SEVERE RISK IS A RACE AS TO WHEN THE 'RELATIVELY' MORE MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. ADDITIONALLY, THE BETTER FORCING/LIFT IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS, THERE MAY BE LITTLE IF ANY RAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY RISE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUGGESTING A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, THE EXTREMELY DRY GROUND WILL OFFER LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
BASED ON THIS THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR ANY RAIN. AN
ESTIMATE THIS FAR OUT SUGGESTS APPROXIMATELY A 6 HOUR WINDOW,
ROUGHLY 3-4 PM TO 10-11 PM AS THE TIME FRAME HAVING THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS DEPENDENT UPON LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT THEN
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS BIASED TOWARD THE WETTER AND SLOWER GFS/GEFS
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS RAISED RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY; 30-40%
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 20-60% THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHER POPS
FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. THE ECMWF/EPS, ICON/ICON-EPS, CMC/GEPS
AND UKMET/MOGEPS-G ARE NOT NEARLY AS MOIST AND WOULD SUPPORT LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. THE CONSENSUS PROGGED QPF IS QUITE LOW WHICH WOULD
ALSO FAVOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCE/HIGHER QPF
AREA IS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH OF I-80.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>95%) CONFIDENCE OF A BRIEF COOL DOWN
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM-UP.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY, BRISK AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD AN
ADDITIONAL CHILL.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES MUCH STRONGER
ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE AREA. THE CURRENT
FORECASTED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH FOR SUNDAY LOOK LOW GIVEN THE OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE APPROPRIATE.
ON MONDAY THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE.
FOR STARTERS A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE THAT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
DAYS TO COMPLETE. HOWEVER, THE END RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE OFFSET BY MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
MOISTURE WILL BE INITIALLY LIMITED ON MONDAY BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS RESPONDING TO THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY INTRODUCING
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS GENERALLY SHIFTING FROM
NORTH TO EAST THROUGH 00Z/24. AFTER 00Z/24 WINDS BE 6 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SLOWLY SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
12Z/24.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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