522
FXUS63 KDVN 122002
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5, RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- IF STORMS COULD REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, A FLASH FLOOD RISK IS POSSIBLE DUE TO WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN TWO SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARRIVES SATURDAY PM.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS MAY INITIATE
STORMS DURING THE MORNING TO MID DAY TIME FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL IOWA. SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE STORMS THEN
GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS AND RACING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST, PASSING THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO THE NORTH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PROGGED TO BE QUITE STEEP (7.5-8 C/KM) AND THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN GOLF BALL
SIZE). ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50
KTS WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS THAT
DEVELOP POSING A DAMAGING WIND RISK. EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. REPEATED ROUNDS
OF STORMS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.75 - 2" ARE SUPPORTIVE OF RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1-2"/HR. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS AND THEREFORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SUNDAY - MONDAY: BEAUTIFUL MID JUNE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY!
FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
ALL GLOBAL MODELS PROG TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE
PUTTING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM.
THE FIRST SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM.
INTERESTINGLY, THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY WETTER WITH
TIME. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT
SLOWLY GETTING STRONGER. THE NBM HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH POPS,
NOW SHOWING 30-60% FOR LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE STRONGER CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THE
HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS MOVED EAST ALLOWING THE GULF TO OPEN
UP. A RESPECTABLE LLJ DEVELOPS HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH.
HOWEVER, TIMING NOW COMES INTO PLAY REGARDING WHEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVES FOR THE SYSTEM. THAT APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD INDICATE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. INDEED, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 50-70 PERCENT.
THE 50-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA, MOISTURE WOULD
BE VERY LIMITED SUGGESTING A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF DRY CONDITIONS
EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE W TO SSW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE (INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH/08
LONG TERM...08/UTTECH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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