020  
FXUS63 KDVN 191924  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
224 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
DESPITE GUSTY NORTH WINDS, BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WAS IN PLACE THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND  
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WAS AHEAD OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED  
OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH  
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE GUSTY WINDS WERE DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE, WHICH WAS PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM RANGED  
FROM 56 IN FREEPORT, TO 62 IN THE QUAD CITIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION HEADING INTO  
THE EASTER WEEKEND, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH RH  
VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT  
HEIGHTENED RISK OF FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
EVENING. THEREFORE, USE CAUTION IF PLANNING TO BURN AS FIRES WILL  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY OVER DRY GROUNDS.  
 
OVERALL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
ON A MODERATING TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND  
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10-15 C BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S, WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN  
THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST, TO NEAR 70 IN THE WEST (CLOSER TO THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING).  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
SUNDAY...  
 
WILL BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND BY FAR AS THE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM DAY, WITH DEEP MIXING  
LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80!  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...  
 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD  
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS, WHICH  
WAS THE WETTEST MODEL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THURSDAY'S 12Z RUN, HAS  
TRENDED DRIER WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE  
FRONT BEING ANALYZED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH LATEST FORECASTS.  
LITTLE CHANGE AS BEEN NOTED WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE CMC AND ECMWF,  
LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST EVOLUTION WITH THIS  
PACKAGE.  
 
EXPECT MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER 12Z MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL  
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-  
80. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW  
MAINLY DUE TO THE LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR. WE WILL NOT BE SHORT OF  
INSTABILITY HOWEVER, AS LATEST NAMNEST AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
GIVE US A GENEROUS 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT  
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST  
FORECASTS AND INFORMATION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD.  
 
TUESDAY ON...  
 
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED  
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY  
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE, BUT THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT  
OF THIS AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. EXPECT CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST  
WITH LATER PACKAGES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
SHORT AND LONG TERM HYDRO CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY ON THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS MORNING, A RIVER LEVELS AT A MAJORITY OF  
SITES FROM FROM DUBUQUE LD 11 TO GREGORY LANDING WERE FALLING, WHILE  
ONLY A FEW SITES, SUCH MUSCATINE, SAW NEAR STEADY RIVER LEVELS.  
 
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON POTENTIAL  
FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI, ESPECIALLY FROM DUBUQUE  
TO THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAIN THAT  
FELL ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY, AND RUNOFF FROM A  
MELTED 8-12 INCH SNOWPACK. CURRENT ENSEMBLES FROM THE RFC ARE  
INCORPORATING THIS COMBINED RUNOFF, BUT POTENTIAL CREST LEVELS ARE  
NOT CURRENTLY IN THE 7 DAY FORECASTS. THEREFORE, THERE REMAINS A BIT  
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW HIGH THE RIVER WILL GET AT ALL POINTS,  
ESPECIALLY AS FLOW WORKS THROUGH THE DAMS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE  
LATEST PRODUCTS AND INFORMATION.  
 
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, QUIET WEATHER WILL BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES. LOOKING AHEAD, LATEST MODEL  
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEVERAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, DPROG/DT ANALYSIS SHOWS A  
DRYING TREND WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, SO CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION IS LOW.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SPECK  
SHORT TERM...SPECK  
LONG TERM...SPECK  
AVIATION...SPECK  
HYDROLOGY...SPECK  
 
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