355
FXUS63 KDVN 312317
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
517 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING IN TANDEM WITH COLDER AIR SHIFTING IN, WITH A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE 2-3 HOURS AFTER
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING; IF IT OCCURS ANY IMPACTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE MINOR.
- THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORM TRACK IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
WHICH INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY
WIDESPREAD, IS LOW.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
DRY AIR INITIALLY OVER THE AREA HAS DELAYED THE START OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS WILL CHANGE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TOP-DOWN SATURATION RAPIDLY
OCCURS.
THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION (BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS)
IS ESSENTIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH POCKETS OF ALL SNOW. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO SHOULD BE SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF AN INDEPENDENCE, IA TO PERU,
IL LINE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE UNDER AN INCH AND MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO MT. CARROLL, IL.
A CONCERN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IS THE PROJECTED LOSS OF CLOUD
ICE. THIS IS AN AREA THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH, BUT, IF CORRECT THEN
WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLDER AIR
GETS PULLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED LAST
EVENING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL BEFORE THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE REALIZED. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LOOKS TO
ROUGHLY START IN OR NEAR THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE AND MOVE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING
DRIZZLE DUE TO MORE TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO COOL. THIS
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES.
THE TIMING OF THE THURSDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM; PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS A TAD FURTHER NORTH SO ONLY
AREAS EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO MT. CARROLL, IL LINE HAVE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD RANGE FROM
FLURRIES TO A VERY LIGHT DUSTING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CONFIDENCE ON MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING TREND.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES THE DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS WELL. HOWEVER,
CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT HOW WARM IT GETS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT; THE FIRST ON SATURDAY, THE SECOND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND A POTENTIAL THIRD ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SATURDAY DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING DRY GIVEN
THE WEAKNESS OF THE SYSTEM AND NO LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. THUS
SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SECOND DISTURBANCE DOES HAVE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND
AIFS RUNS ARE DRY AS ARE NEARLY ALL OF THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. UNLIKE YESTERDAY, THERE ARE NOW A COUPLE OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WANTING TO DEVELOP SOME VERY WEAK PRECIPITATION. THIS IN
TURN HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NET
RESULT IS STILL DRY CONDITIONS BUT THE POP CHANCES ARE NO LONGER
ZERO.
THE SIGNAL, ALBEIT A BIT STRONGER, IS ESSENTIALLY BEING SWALLOWED BY
THE BACKGROUND ERROR NOISE. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND OF THE SIGNAL
STRENGTHENING CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS THEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WOULD BE IN QUESTION.
THE DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF BEING
THE WEAKEST OF THE THREE. HOWEVER, THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SUBTLE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE. IF CORRECT THEN THE ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS ARE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE /
FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
TURNING WINDS MORE OUT OF THE DUE NORTH. WEAK FORCING ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE AND OBSERVATIONS
HAVE CONFIRMED THAT. IN THE FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, THERE MAY BE A WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE, THOUGH
RUNWAY AND OTHER SURFACES MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN THAT FEW
HOUR WINDOW, SO ANY IMPACTS ARE TRENDING TO BE PRETTY MINOR.
MVFR CLOUDS WITH PATCHY IFR WILL SCATTER OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FAVORED ON NEW YEAR'S DAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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