035
FXUS63 KDVN 091746
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TODAY AND
TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR BEING IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL PERSIST INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE FLURRIES ALONG WITH 20-30 PERCENT
COVERAGE OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
BECAUSE OF THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER ILLINOIS, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AND BE SLOW TO BREAK UP TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>99%) OF A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
AFTER ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK LOOK TO BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE SYSTEM IS VERY
LIMITED ON MOISTURE SO THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS INCREASING CLOUDS
TO MARK ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR I CANNOT FULLY
RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE TAFS.
STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BASES HOVERING AROUND THE MVFR THRESHOLD. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN, IT WILL
FAVOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FLURRIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS (20-50 PERCENT COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI). WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KT, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO TEMPORARILY KNOCK
VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO
FINALLY GRADUALLY EASE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MONDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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