659
FXUS63 KDVN 111953
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
153 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND.
- THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING THE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY SLOW DOWN THE LOSS
OF LOW CLOUDS FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF UNTIL OR AFTER SUNSET.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
ON MONDAY ONCE THE DISTURBANCE PASSES, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95% CONFIDENCE) OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM MEANS THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (10-20%) RISK OF PRECIPITATION
A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE FIRST OF TWO COLD
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN.
MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE FORCING WITH THE FRONT IS ALSO WEAK.
THUS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. TIMING
OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WEAK
FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS, 85 PERCENT OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY THE STRONGER OF THE TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE FRONT BEING
STRONGER, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER,
LIKE THE FIRST FRONT, A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL
DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR BEING PULLED
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND NORMAL FOR
MID JANUARY. IT WILL INITIALLY BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LOW
(<20%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING TRACK AND OVERALL IMPACTS.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SINCE THE ENERGY THAT WILL PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM IS
OVER THE PACIFIC, THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS REGARDING TRACK AND
TIMING. ONCE THE ENERGY COMES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS SAMPLED
BY THE MORE DENSE LAND NETWORKS, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOULD START
CONVERGING ON A BETTER SENSE OF TIMING AND TRACK.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME, HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH A TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SUCH A SET-UP WOULD SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SYSTEM THAT WHAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS.
THE KEY APPEARS TO BE HOW MUCH THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
BEFORE THE ENERGY TOPS THE RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MOST
SOLUTIONS PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INDICATING NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THE EPS, HOWEVER, DOES HAVE TWO
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT TAKE A TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ECMWF-AIFS SHOWS LESS THAN 0.10 QPF FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE
IAGFS IS DRIER WITH QPF UNDER 0.05 INCHES. THE NBM 75-25TH
PERCENTILES HAVE A 24 HR QPF MEAN AT OR JUST UNDER 0.10 INCHES WITH
A MAX OF 0.15 INCHES.
FROM THE SYNOPTIC LARGE SCALE PICTURE, THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE
WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE BULK OF THE QPF.
THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT AND SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LITTLE
OF THE OVERALL QPF. INTERESTINGLY, THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF LAGS AN
INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH IF CORRECT, WOULD ALLOW LIGHT
SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK, THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80. FOR FRIDAY
EVENING, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF SNOW
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW (<20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING IS BEING
INFLUENCED BY THE CMC/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THE ECMWF KEEPS AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE AREA THAT
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. THE CMC IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT DELAYS
THE PASSAGE OF THE INVERTED TROF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
AS A RESULT, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. EVEN IF THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE ON DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH THAT STARTS BUILDING
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INDICATING DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SUGGESTING AN
INVERSION ALOFT. IF CORRECT, THERE MAY BE MUCH MORE CLOUDS THAN WHAT
THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THROUGH 00Z/12 AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. AFTER 00Z/12 VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. STRONG RETURN FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AFTER 03Z/12 BRINGS A LLWS RISK THROUGH 12Z/12.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page