902
FXUS63 KDVN 122053
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EAST AND SOUTH FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- VERY COLD/ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. BITING WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 ARE
LIKELY.
- WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACRS THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WILL LOOK TO
DIG AND DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GRT LKS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS PROCESS WILL SWEEP THE FIRST COLD FRONT AND INITIAL LOBE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VEERING AND
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS, AND THEN THE MAIN ARCTIC SURGE
COMING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH IN-CRASHING 1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH. FOR
THIS EARLY EVENING, INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND PRE-FRONTAL FORCING MAY
WRING OUT FLURRIES OR EVEN SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF ANY
LOW STRATOCU DECK ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THEN A LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT LULL AS NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST SFC WINDS
INCREASE AND COLD AIR ADVECT. THEN ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE NOW WELL
ADVERTISED IN-COMING CLIPPER IN TIGHTENING NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
ALOFT AND NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LLVL BAROCLINICITY. MORE
TOP-DOWN SATURATION TO DO WITH INITIAL INCOMING LIFT AND MAY DELAY
THE SNOW AT GROUND LEVEL START TIME SOME, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE
HEADLINE TIMING THE SAME. BUT WITH NEW PRECIP/SNOW CALCULATIONS AND
NEIGHBORING OFFICE COLLABORATION, HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY EAST AND SOUTH.
SNOW AMOUNTS: LOOKING AT THE FCST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL PROFILE
ENSEMBLES, THEY STILL ADVERTISE DEEP SATURATION BY SAT MORNING, WITH
OVER 150 MB LLVL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. EXTENT OF UPWARD
OMEGAS, F-GEN AND ADEQUATE RH IN THE COLD PROFILES STILL POINTING TO
A PROFICIENT SNOW MAKER WITH HEAVY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES AN HOUR FOR A
PERIOD OF 2-4 HOURS, MAKING THE MOST OF A QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID POSSIBLE, DOUBLING THOSE QPF AMOUNTS IN SNOWFALL(2 TO
5+) INCHES IN THE HIGHER SNOWFALL SWATH. LOOKS LIKE A BIT BROADER
AND FURTHER NORTH HEAVIER SNOW AXIS FROM THE ONE THAT OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE HWY 34
CORRIDOR. OR ALONG A SIGOURNEY IA, TO BURLINGTON, AND SOUTH OF
MONMOUTH IL LINE. MOST OF THE SNOW TO FALL FROM 6 AM TO NOON, WITH
TAPERING WINDOWS ON EITHER SIDE. MOST SNOW OUT OF THE AREA BY 4 PM
SAT.
TEMPERATURES: THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA SOURCE REGION SUPPORT LOW TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH EVEN SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SATURDAY MORNING WIND
CHILLS FROM 10 TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND THUS
AN ADDED THREAT FOR SOMEBODY HAVING CAR TROUBLE SAT MORNING FOR
THOSE WHO NEED TO TRAVEL. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW, HIGH TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-80.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE PUMMELS
IT'S WAY DOWN ACRS THE REGION, WITH -20C H85 MB TEMP COLD POOL
GLANCING THE CWA. BUT WITH THE ONGOING STOUT CAA AND SNOW PACK,
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BRING
ABOUT LOW TEMPS OF -5 IN THE SOUTH, TO NEAR -15F IN THE NORTHWEST.
OF COURSE THE BIG THING WILL BE THE ADVECTING WINDS THEMSELVES OF 10-
20 MPH COMBINING WITH THE VERY COLD AMBIENT TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
OTHER OFFICES TO GET THE HEADLINE OUT A BIT EARLY AND THUS A COLD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE POSSIBLE NEED OF AND
UPGRADE TO A WARNING IF NEED BE, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE DVN CWA. SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. TEMPS TO CRASH FAST WITH DECREASING
WINDS BY SUNDAY EVENING NIGHTFALL, LEADING TO ANOTHER SUB ZERO 3 DOG
NIGHT.
WE MAY NEED ANOTHER COLD HEADLINE NORTH OF I-80 FOR MONDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS OF 20 BELOW OR A FEW DEGREES COLDER.
LONGER RANGE PROGS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW FLATTENING STEERING FLOW
ACRS THE MID CONUS INTO MID NEXT WEEK, AND THUS A MODERATING TEMP
REGIME INTO MID NEXT WEEK. SNOW MELT AND FOG MAY BE A FACTOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU, BEFORE A
POST-SYSTEM CHILL DOWN OCCURS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CHALLENGING CIG HEIGHT AND VSBY FCST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING VFR TO IFR CIGS AND LIGHTER FOG. IT SHOULD TREND TO
MAINLY MVFR FOR BOTH PARAMETERS AS THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE AT DBQ THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEN AN INCOMING ARCTIC FRONT WILL VEER THE WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS MID TO LATE EVENING
SCOOPING UP CIGS AND MIXING OUT ANY LINGERING FOG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THEN HERE COMES THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAWN...FIRST
TO HIT CID AROUND 10-11Z OR SO. THERE WILL BE A RAPID
DETERIORATION IN BOTH CIGS AND SNOW REDUCED VSBYS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH MID MORNING BACK TO IFR OR LIFR EXCEPT MAYBE AT DBQ
WHICH MAY HOLD ON TO LOW MVFR CRITERIA THROUGH 18Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ063-064-076-077-087-088-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ065-067-068-078-089.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ009-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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