641
FXUS63 KDVN 292336
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
536 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO PERU, IL LINE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE UNDER AN INCH.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FASTER DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. LINGERING FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO END. BY MIDNIGHT WINDS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 10 MPH AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON TUESDAY, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. BASED ON OVERALL FORCING AND
TRACK, AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF APPROXIMATELY A DUBUQUE, IA
TO PERU, IL LINE HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONE HALF INCH OR LESS FOR THOSE
AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (70-90%) CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK
MOVING HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (70-80%) CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS CLIPPER, THIS ONE
IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.
WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY GREAT, THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER AND
OVERALL FORCING SUPPORTS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
NORTH OF I-80. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SOME MINOR IMPACTS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
RIGHT NOW OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A NARROW BAND WITH ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO 1 INCH.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO BE IN STORE STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CONFIDENCE ON MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING TREND.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DISTURBANCE GENERALLY PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DAY BEING DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
ARRIVES. SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME WEAK
PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY. INTERESTING, THE ECMWF-AIFS
HAS WEAK QPF BUT THE AIGFS DOES NOT. THIS FAR OUT THE WEAK SIGNAL IS
LIKELY BEING OVERWHELMED BY THE GENERAL BACKGROUND ERROR NOISE. THUS
IT WILL BE INTERESTING WHAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS COMES UP WITH AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS FOR A SLOW BUT GENERAL WARMING TREND AS WE
END THE WEEK AND GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RELAX ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 3 UTC AND THEN QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 6 UTC. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LINGERING AT KCID, AND KMLI, AND KDBQ THIS EVENING
BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO VFR THIS EVENING.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS TO NORTH ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AFTER 12
UTC WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT KDBQ
AFTER 18 UTC. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AFTER 18
UTC WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...COUSINS
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