223
FXUS63 KDVN 261743
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY, TRENDING NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST, WITH A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. OUR AREAS FALLS BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEM, KEEPING US
IN EASTERLY LLVL FLOW. OVER THE LAST DAY, WE HAVE SEEN NOTHING BUT
GREY SKIES AND SOME DRIZZLES/SHOWERS. TODAY, WE WILL SEE THE UPPER
LOW START TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SOUTH. MUCH OF OUR PRECIPITATION
WAS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT WE WILL SEE THIS DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING, AS THE UPPER LOW BREAKS DOWN AND FORCING
DECREASES. THUS, TODAY WILL START THE TRANSITION FROM GLOOMY WEATHER
TO NICE FALL WEATHER. THROUGH THE DAY, WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS START
TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL
HAVE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH,
THOSE ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SUN
PEEKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, WE SHOULD HAVE A
NICE AND SEASONALLY MILD AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND AN EASTERLY BREEZE.
TONIGHT, BOUTS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK
THROUGH MISSOURI, REMAINING NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL
BE AN AREA WHERE WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME WEAK LIFT, WITH
MOISTURE PRESENT. THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR SOME, WITH THOSE IN OUR
NORTH CLEARING OUT AND SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE QUITE THE
MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY, RESULTING
IN A BIT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN TO START THE WEEK. WITH THAT IN
PLACE, WE HAVE A DEVELOPING/DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TREK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THIS
WAVE DEEPENING AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TRENDED WESTERLY,
KEEPING THE PATH OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS IS QUITE THE DIFFERENCE,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME CHANGES IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WHILE WE
ARE STILL MESSAGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THIS WESTERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH, IT
STILL SEEMS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY SEE UPWARDS TO 0.25" OF
RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 0.50" OR MORE
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS
SUCH, WITH ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.50" ALONG THE
RIVER AND AROUND A 50-70% CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE. THIS WILL
LARGELY FALL AS LIGHT-MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEING LIMITED AS WELL.
ANOTHER TREND THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IS THAT THE SYSTEM SEEMED TO SLOW
DOWN, KEEPING IT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE LONGER. THUS, WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BEST
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA.
THUS, CLOUDS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MORE
SUN RETURNING TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, WITH MOST IN THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE/NO MOISTURE RETURN, WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE A DRY FROPA. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT WITHOUT MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EASTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THESE GUSTS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH EAST WINDS OF 8
TO 10 KNOTS LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...COUSINS
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