152
FXUS63 KDVN 250658
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
158 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FURTHER MID-WEEK, WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF MAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED
THE REMNANTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED OVER
SOUTHEAST SD LAST EVENING, NOW OVER NORTHWEST IA ON THE NOSE OF
A 50KT LLJ OBSERVED FROM FSD VWP DATA. THESE STORMS ALSO HAD
SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE SEEN THESE STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A LESS
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL IA. CLOSER TO HOME, OUR 00Z
DVN SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILE BELOW 750MB
AIDING IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN SEEN AREA-WIDE WITH
1AM READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH EAST OVER IA AND
CONTINUE TO DECAY/DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE. HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE (<20%) POPS ACROSS BUCHANAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES PRIOR TO 15Z FOR SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, A BEAUTIFUL MEMORIAL DAY IS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE EAST WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH GIVING
WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA-WIDE.
TONIGHT...WINDS TO DECREASE UNDER 10KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LOCALLY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME WAA SHOWERS WELL
TO OUR WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT TO BRING
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY TO THE AREA WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED IS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK,
WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NNW OVER MO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO OMEGA BLOCK BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH THIS LOW.
HOWEVER, 1000-500MB RH PROGS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE DEPTHS TO BE
DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO. THIS RESULTS IN LOWER QPF
PROBABILITIES (NBM NOW LESS THAN 15% FOR >0.1" QPF) AND HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, THE ENTIRE AREA MAY BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE
ONLY CAVEAT IS PROSPECTS OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THAT 'MAY' BRING SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS BUT A VERY
DRY BL COULD KEEP THIS AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
THURSDAY ONWARD...PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK TO BECOME FURTHER
ENTRENCHED AS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE (584 DAM PER LREF)
BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER. THIS UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE (2.5 SIGMA OR NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE PER CLIMO) TO
BRING CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF MAY. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP THE NBM OUTPUT OF 15-40% POPS BUT I HAVE MY
SUSPICIONS THAT THESE WILL BE LOWERED EVEN MORE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. THIS DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR THE AG COMMUNITY AS WE
COULD SURE USE THE RAIN FOR THE RECENTLY PLANTED CROPS. ALL OF
EASTERN IA, NORTHWEST IL, AND NORTHEAST MO HAS RECEIVED LESS
THAN 60% OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE PAST 30 DAYS. IN FACT,
ROCKFORD, IL AND MILWAUKEE, WI WILL SEE A TOP 3 DRIEST MAY IF
THEY RECEIVE NO MORE RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS LOOKING VERY
PROBABLE.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BRING A CONTINUATION TO THE QUIET WEATHER, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS DUE TO DIMINISHING AND VEERING LLJ. NOT
ANTICIPATING THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE TERMINALS AND EVEN IF
IT DID, VFR VSBYS WOULD BE SEEN. BULK OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO
ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO 800MB ALLOWING FOR AN
OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AT CID/DBQ.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS/GUNKEL
AVIATION...GROSS
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