686
FXUS63 KDVN 242238
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
538 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERAL WARMING TREND STILL ON TRACK THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT. THEN ANOTHER
WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MODERATE AT BEST SOUTH.
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO MOLINE TO STERLING ROCK FALLS
LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND AVAILIBLE MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
TONIGHT...AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE WEST WILL FLATTEN WITH
ROBUST UPPER JET ENERGY THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT TRIES TO PRESS ACRS
OUR REGION. IN THE PROCESS WE WILL STILL HAVE ENOUGH LINGERING
NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW ACRS THE REGION WITH SUBTLE VORT ENERGY
EMBEDDED TO KEEP ROUNDS OF CIRRUS AND HIGHER BASED AC STREAMING ACRS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SUCH AS TONIGHT, AS WELL AS A
LARGE AREA OF SFC RIDGING ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUING TO
PULL EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING, AS WELL AS SUPPORT 50% NBM VALUES AS
OPPOSED TO HAVE TO UNDERCUT LOWS AGAIN WITH THE DRY SFC DPTS IN
PLACE.
WEDNESDAY...DESPITE MORE EXPECTED CIRRUS SHEILD-FILTERING INSOLATION
STREAMING ACRS THE REGION, MIXING INTO THE BASE OF A BUILDING
INVERSION(LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS) PRODUCES PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
70S ACRS THE CWA FOR WED HIGHS, WITH UPPER 70S OR EVEN AN 80
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENSEMBLES LAY OUT A TIGHTENING LLVL BAROCLINICITY
RIBBON ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS AS THE
STEERING FLOW ACRS THESE AREAS FLATTENS AND BECOMES MID/UPPER JET
OCCUPIED. SFC REFLECTION WAVE AND FRONT ALSO LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE ACRS
THESE AREAS, WITH BOUNDARY LOOKING TO POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACRS NE AND IA UNTIL THE SFC LOW CAN PASS ALONG IT
ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE/PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND PRECIP
FOCAL POINT SOMETIME THU INTO THU EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME FOR WED
NIGHT, A FEW SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING A CONVERGENT 30-40 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WITH ADEQUATE THTA-E AND MUCAPES ALOFT TO POSSIBLE
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A FEW SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL MAY BE THE
LOCATION FOR THE ACTIVITY, BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL GO WITH 20% SLIGHT CHC
TOWARD CENTRAL IL FOR NOW WED EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH, TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THURSDAY...STILL SOME CHALLENGES TO FIGURE OUT IN FRONTAL TIMING AND
EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH AFTER A SFC WAVE PROGRESSES BY AND EASTWARD.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST DETERMINISTICS,
BUT THERE MAY BE A TREND OF A MORE SOUTHWARD PUSH/SPEED UP OF THE
FRONT SWEEPING SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. IF THIS OCCURS,
BESIDES SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS, THE PRIME
ALONG AND PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING MAY OCCUR JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA, FROM
SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA, ACRS CENTRAL IL AND UP INTO NORTHEAST
IN WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MAY FIRE THU EVENING. PLENTY OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM PRE-FRONTAL FIELDS TO POST-FRONTAL ZONES
ESPECIALLY WITH IMPRESSIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE FIELDS OFF MID AND UPPER
JET STREAKS FOR DEEP LIFT. LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE BEEN SAYING,
IT'S ALL WHERE THE SHEAR WILL INTERACT WITH THE PRIME CAPE FIELDS
AND NORTHERN INSTABILITY GRADIENT/DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX WHICH AGAIN
ON MOST OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLES LOOKS TO LAY OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA. IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO FIRE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST VERTICAL
PROFILES/THERMO AND KINEMATIC FIELDS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL THE INITIAL
THREAT, EVOLVING INTO A WIND THREAT AS THEY EXIT THE LOCAL AREA.
HIGH TEMPS A REAL CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY WITH BIG BUST POTENTIAL
DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE
UPPER 60S ACRS THE FAR NORTH, TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH.
WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MIDDLE WILL BE THE TRICK. IT CURRENTLY STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
80 IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE SCTRD PRECIP AREAS DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY STILL APPEARING TO BE A BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT MAY OCCUR THURSDAY.
THE RE-BOUNDING WESTERN UPPER HIGH AND STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD AGAIN STARTING ANOTHER
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE END
OF THE LONGER RANGE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND SUNDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. BUT SOME RIDGE-RIDING
ENERGY IS STILL TARGETING LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SCT-BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GROSS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page