866
FXUS63 KDVN 162334
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM
BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS
EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROZE THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE
LONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LONGER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA, THE
WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH, BRINGING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY BACK TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS, IT IS CLEAR THAT WE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. IF ROBUST SHOWERS
DEVELOP, WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AND IS DENOTED BY THE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE LONG AWAITED WAVE
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY STARTS TO EMERGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS, STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO WARM AND MOIST AIR BEING PUMPED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
A LEADING WAVE WILL EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
LATEST RUNS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT
THE 06Z GFS HAD THE COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA
AROUND 0Z TO 03Z ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z HAS SPEED THIS UP AND NOW
HAS THE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE RIVER AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AT
CAPE AND SHEAR, IF A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
WHILE CAPE IS LOW, THERE IS DECENT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH AS WELL. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY GOING
FORWARD AS SNEAKER STRONG TO SEVERE ENVIRONMENT MAY SET UP. SOME
OF THE CAMS HAVE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA LATER DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ACTIVE. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TOO SOON TO PINPOINT WHEN THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE SPORADIC LOW-END CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
WINDS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AND ONLY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH LLWS AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT
IN THE 1-2KFT AGL LAYER FROM SSW AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE VICINITY
OF KCID/KDBQ. SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT
WITH SPORADIC HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BUT I'M NOT ANTICIPATING THESE TO BE PERSISTENT AND
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT KCID AND KDBQ. ON
FRIDAY, MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 14-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 22-30 KT. MAINLY JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR GENERAL AVIATION.
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (MID-LATE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING) WE'RE EXPECTING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
(40-60%+) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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