866  
FXUS63 KDVN 162334  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
634 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO  
THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.  
 
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM  
BRINGING WITH IT CHANCES RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS  
EASTERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROZE THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE  
LONGER THAN GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LONGER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.  
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA, THE  
WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH, BRINGING HEAT  
AND HUMIDITY BACK TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE.  
 
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS, IT IS CLEAR THAT WE  
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM AS LOW  
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES. IF ROBUST SHOWERS  
DEVELOP, WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO 00Z. CONFIDENCE IN  
THIS OCCURRING IS LOW AND IS DENOTED BY THE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE  
WESTERN CWA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
AS HAS BEEN MESSAGED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE LONG AWAITED WAVE  
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES FINALLY STARTS TO EMERGE OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS, STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD  
TO WARM AND MOIST AIR BEING PUMPED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 
A LEADING WAVE WILL EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY, PASSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL  
PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,  
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  
 
LATEST RUNS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT  
THE 06Z GFS HAD THE COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA  
AROUND 0Z TO 03Z ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z HAS SPEED THIS UP AND NOW  
HAS THE BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE RIVER AT THAT TIME. LOOKING AT  
CAPE AND SHEAR, IF A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT  
IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD NOT BE RULED  
OUT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND  
WHILE CAPE IS LOW, THERE IS DECENT CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL  
HODOGRAPH AS WELL. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY GOING  
FORWARD AS SNEAKER STRONG TO SEVERE ENVIRONMENT MAY SET UP. SOME  
OF THE CAMS HAVE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA LATER DURING THE DAY ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY  
ACTIVE. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TOO SOON TO PINPOINT WHEN THE NEXT BEST  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEYOND FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE SPORADIC LOW-END CHANCES THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
WINDS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS AND ONLY CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE  
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH LLWS AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KT  
IN THE 1-2KFT AGL LAYER FROM SSW AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z,  
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE VICINITY  
OF KCID/KDBQ. SSE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT  
WITH SPORADIC HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, BUT I'M NOT ANTICIPATING THESE TO BE PERSISTENT AND  
THEREFORE I HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LLWS AT KCID AND KDBQ. ON  
FRIDAY, MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY  
CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 14-20 KT WITH  
GUSTS 22-30 KT. MAINLY JUST SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. SOME UPPER LEVEL SMOKE IS ALSO A  
POSSIBILITY ON FRIDAY BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR GENERAL AVIATION.  
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (MID-LATE FRIDAY EVENING  
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING) WE'RE EXPECTING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES  
(40-60%+) TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GIBBS  
LONG TERM...GIBBS  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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