100
FXUS63 KDVN 021054
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
554 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BACK TO BACK ENHANCED RISK/LEVEL 3 SEVERE WEATHER DAYS TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- VERY FAST STORM MOTIONS TO 60 MPH WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
OFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TIME TO ACT, THUS IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO
STAY WEATHER AWARE!
- AWAY FROM THE STORMS, IT WILL TURN WINDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH FOR AREAS, MAINLY
SOUTH OF HWY 30.
- SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO GO THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS OF 1-4+ INCHES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IT'S A SOGGY EARLY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH STRONG ELEVATED WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION AIDED BY A 50 KT LLJ ATOP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. PWATS ARE SURGING TO NEAR 1.4-1.5 INCHES AND ADDITIONAL
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AIDED BY A WEAK COUPLING OF UPPER JETS IS LEADING
TO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDER. THESE PROCESSES WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD FOSTER SOME DECAYING OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MID-LATE MORNING, AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AND BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 18Z. THAT BEING SAID, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
TO SEE A CLEAR RADAR SCOPE AT ANY TIME TODAY, AND TO THAT POINT THERE IS
GROWING CONSENSUS IN THE CAM GUIDANCE OF ANOTHER BURGEONING ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR
FIRST POTENTIAL WINDOW (ROUGHLY NOON TO 4 PM) FOR SEVERE WEATHER AIDED
BY A 500 HPA SPEED MAX. THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH FOR ANY OF THIS CONVECTION TRYING TO BECOME MORE ROOTED ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. SHOULD ANY STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED
ROUGHLY AROUND 4 PM TO 8 PM, AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW (AS IT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN) AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS LOW TRACK COUPLED WITH A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE AND A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 500 HPA JET AND 50+ KT
LLJ CONCEPTUALLY POSE A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP FOR THE AREA.
MESOSCALE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DEPICTS INSTABILITY
OR CAPE OF ROUGHLY 1000-1500+ J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE INITIATING
BOUNDARY /COLD FRONT TO WHERE DISCRETE CELLS WOULD LOOK TO BE FAVORED
INITIALLY. ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY RISKS LOOK TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND ALSO A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS UPWARDS OF 35-40 KT, WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR NEAR CERTAINTY OF TORNADOES (>40 KT) IN THE
PRESENCE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE TORNADO CONCERNS MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WASHINGTON, IOWA TO QUAD CITIES TO FREEPORT, ILLINOIS.
THIS QUADRANT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE PASSING VORT MAX AND BE MORE FAVORED FOR
SOME SLIGHT LOW LEVEL BACKING OF WINDS, WHICH IF OCCURS WOULD ENHANCE THE
0-1/0-3KM SRH WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2. AN ENHANCED
RISK OR LEVEL 3 OF 5 RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
STORM MOTIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE EXTREMELY FAST AT AROUND
60 MPH! THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE YOUR TIME TO TAKE ACTION, THUS IT'S
RECOMMENDED TO PLAN AHEAD ON WHERE YOU WILL GO TO SEEK SHELTER AND DON'T WAIT
UNTIL THE WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY WEATHER AWARE!
AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS THERE DOES EXIST SOME UNCERTAINTY
AND POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXTENT OF RECOVERY OR
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST THE EXTENSIVE RAIN AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING. IF WE
STAY CLOUDY AND KEEP MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED LEADING
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN THIS COULD IMPACT UPDRAFT STRENGTH. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND COULD THERE BE TOO MUCH TO
WHICH IF THE CASE COULD DISRUPT UPDRAFTS (MORE HEAVILY SHEARED), AND HENCE HINDER
THE STRENGTH AND SUSTENANCE OF STORMS. IT WILL BE A DAY OF HEAVY MESOSCALE
FORECASTING!
ONE FINAL THING, OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WE'LL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON IN A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH ADDITIONAL
ASSIST OF MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MUCH OF THE CAM GUIDANCE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUSTS AND PROBABILISTIC WIND GUIDANCE
(60-80% PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH) SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAINLY SOUTH OF AN IOWA CITY TO CLINTON LINE
THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTS EASTWARD, ALBEIT LARGER AND DEEPER/STRONGER
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE SOME SIMILAR ASPECTS TO THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM, BUT A LATER TIME OF DAY AND BIT FURTHER WEST MASS FIELD PLACEMENT
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE STRONGEST STORM INITIATION OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
SERVICE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO A MATURE SQUALL LINE OR QLCS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING, EXITING IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
ROUGHLY 7 PM TO 1 AM. BUT, WILL HAVE TO KEEP TABS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-80 NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
THIS SETUP LOOKS TO LARGELY FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT WIND
POTENTIAL, AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY MESOVORTICES. THE PRIME WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR FUELING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN MAY LOOK TO OCCUR JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SERVICE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FAST MOTION OF
THE LINE WOULD LIKELY LIMIT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. OVERALL, THESE FEW
ROUNDS OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH RAIN THAT HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TOTALS
OF 1-4 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL AND NOT CAUSE TOO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLOODING CONCERNS WITH MOSTLY WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS, ALBEIT
SIGNIFICANT UNLESS A RIVER BASIN DOES MANAGE TO GET PICKED ON WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN WHICH CASE WOULD POSE A FLOOD THREAT. FLASH FLOODING
THREAT APPEARS LOW AS WELL, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING URBAN AREAS WITH ANY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
SATURDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND TURN COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONTINUED COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE THIS STRETCH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN FLOW INDUCED PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE SOME TIME TUE
INTO NEXT WED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG,
AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. A STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER LLWS THROUGH 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON INTO VERY EARLY
EVENING (19Z-00Z) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF STORMS
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. HAVE HANDLED THE STORM POTENTIAL WITH A
PROB30 OR TEMPO MENTION. WINDS WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL GUST 30-40 KT,
AND ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO AROUND
SEVERE CRITERIA (50 KT). CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND
VFR PREDOMINANTLY WITH SOME IFR (VISIBILITY) POSSIBLE IN STORMS. WINDS WILL
VEER W/SW AND REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING/NIGHT UP TO 30 KT AND SOME
WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF I-80 MAINLY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ067-068-078-087>089-098-099.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...12/MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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