537
FXUS63 KDVN 100518
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1218 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MID-AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVERALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE AROUND AND INCH OR LESS, WITH A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OVER
AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- MORE AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THAT
WAVE, A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 30 TO 40 IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONVERGENCE FOCUSED BETWEEN THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND HIGHWAY 34 OR BETWEEN A CEDAR RAPIDS TO
STERLING ROCK FALLS TO A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EXPANDING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 09 UTC DECREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, 700
MB FGEN FORCING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY SINK EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE AREA OF SHOWERS SINKING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY COME
TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER
09 UTC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 30 AND HIGHWAY 34. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 BUT THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD. IF STORMS DO OCCUR, AMOUNTS NEAR 2.00 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S WEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO MANCHESTER LINE TO
AROUND 50 IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
ASIDE FROM SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF OUR SOUTH IN THE MORNING, FRIDAY IS
GEARED TO BE A PLEASANT DAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ON ITS APPROACH, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEING SEEN THROUGH THE
DAY. POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SO, WHILE THE DAY
WILL START QUITE GREY AND DAMP, THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MORE
SUN FOR SOME.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING PUSH EAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS
WOULD FAVOR STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SERVE AS THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
US LARGELY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND A SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZE. A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH A STRONG LLJ SETTING UP AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL THEN
TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OUT NORTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR INTO THE 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK BOUTS OF
VORTICITY PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY RESULT. BEST FORCING CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN OUR
NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD BE
WHERE WE SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT.
COMPARED TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, THE MAIN WAVE THAT WAS SET TO
COME THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN, WITH IMPACTS FROM THAT
NOW LARGELY MOVING IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL STILL SEE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT WILL
LARGELY BE DUE TO WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE.
THUS, WEAKER FORCING OVERALL. BEST FORCING WILL BE WITH THAT
MAIN WAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO COME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT
VARIABILITY BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT IMPORTANT FOR THE STRENGTH OF ANY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS NON-ZERO WITH THESE DIFFERENT STORM SYSTEMS.
ALTHOUGH, WITH THE BEST FORCING CURRENTLY COMING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, OVERALL CHANCES WOULD SEEM LOWER AT THIS TIME. AS WAS
HINTED IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THIS TO CHANGE. THUS, JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT WE MAY HAVE AN
ACTIVE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACRS THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY. HIGH VARYING BOUTS OF VFR
TO IFR CIGS AND RAIN/FOG REDUCED VSBYS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
RAIN ENDS AND THE CIGS GET SCOOPED UPWARD BACK TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE AS FRIDAY MORNING
AND MIDDAY PROGRESSES. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL
BACK MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AS FRIDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES AS WELL, RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...12
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