751
FXUS63 KDVN 220725
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH SPOTTY SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES...MOST OF THE DAY DRY THOUGH.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
- A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK,
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WILL LAY OUT. WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES STILL
SEEM TO BE IN LINE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TODAY...LARGE GRT LKS RIDGE COMPLEX WILL LOOK TO MAINTAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, WHILE AN UPPER TROF SEEN ON THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR(WV)
LOOP ACRS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHEARS OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE, WHILE THE RIDGE TO
THE EAST HOLDS ON ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
ACRS THE AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED VORT SPOKES WITH UPSTREAM WAVE WILL
TRY TO PRODUCE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES AS THEY
TRY AND PROPAGATE THIS WAY, BUT THE DRY COOL EASTERLY LLVL FETCH
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY AT BAY AND IN
VIRGA FORM. WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH, DON'T SEE
THE HIGH TEMPS TODAY MAKING IT PAST THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SFC WAVE NEAR
THE MO BOOTHEEL ROLLING UP ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA TO TRY AND SPREAD
SOME RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS IN FROM THE EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THE EASTERN I-80 CORRIDOR MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IF IT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND A DIFFERENT BL
FLOW PATTERN TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND SFC DPTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. BUT SOME WORRY MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING MAY
MAKE THE NBM BLEND TOO WARM AGAIN AND WE MAY BE MORE IN THE LINE OF
LOW TO MID 70S. PART OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROF WILL LOOK TO EDGE
THIS WAY, AND THERE MAY SOME ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK ON THE FCST SOUNDINGS, AND IF WE LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER SCENARIO THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND DEFINITELY NOT MUCH THUNDER POTENTIAL. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A WAVE WILL STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS, WHERE THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK. AS IT SITS AND GYRATES OVER THE SOUTH, UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEAK AND ZONAL OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SET TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PULL SOME FORCING/MOISTURE INTO THE AREA,
RESULTING IN INCREASING POPS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RESULT THAT
NIGHT, LARGELY IN THE FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW, WITH THE EURO KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA AND THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE AT LEAST INTRODUCING
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FROM THERE, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON THE FORECAST. FOR THE MOST PART, GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH RIDGING EAST. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FURTHER
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THUS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH, SPECIFICS ON
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN NOW DUE TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS
IN GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WENT WITH SIMPLE TAFS FOR NOW WITH CONTINUED VFR TAF CYCLE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND GRT LKS RIDGING MAINTAINING
EASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-12 KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY, BUT JUST WENT WITH A
GENERAL AVERAGE FOR NOW. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL TRY TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT WITH ONGOING DRY
LLVLS DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF THEM TO REACH THE SFC OR REDUCE VSBYS
UNDER 6SM. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME MVFR DECKS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO TRY AND SEEP NORTHWEST ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO THE
VCNTY OF BRL THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND
LATER TONIGHT. EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR THEM TO CREEP IN THE VCNTY
OF MLI FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE MORE PROBABLE VFR
CIGS FOR NOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12/GUNKEL
AVIATION...12
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