835
FXUS63 KDVN 280802
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. EAST OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK EXISTS.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES GOING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE MONTH WILL
CREATE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SOME RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE AREA.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND NEAR
FULL SUN WILL ALLOW DEEP MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE HUMIDITY
LEVELS TO PLUMMET. THE LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB RAPIDLY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH IT TAKING MOST OF
THE EVENING HOURS TO LOSE THE GUSTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>99%) OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS AS THE PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES. THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AT A MINIMUM, AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK EXISTS FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
BY MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S WITH 80S EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE CHALLENGED. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER COOL-DOWN
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SEEN WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
ALOFT MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE
ESSENTIALLY DRY BUT SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DEPICTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 30-50% CHANCES FOR RAIN WHICH LOOK HIGH
GIVEN THE INITIALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. THE HIGHER POPS ARE TRACEABLE TO
THE MOIST BIAS IN THE GEFS. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ACROSS WISCONSIN.
AFTER MONDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A DAILY CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THESE DAILY
CHANCES ARE RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES AND THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE BROKEN DOWN INTO TWO
DIFFERENCE TIME PERIODS.
THE FIRST IS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO DETERMINE THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEEN WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON (SUGGESTED BY
SOME SOLUTIONS), THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
THERE. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, SOME OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SITES
ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. IF SEVERE STORMS
OCCUR, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WOULD BE 3-11 PM TUESDAY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED. THIS
DECREASE APPEARS TO BE TRACEABLE TO THE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.
THE OTHER FAVORABLE TIME FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO UNDER 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z/28 AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER 12Z/28 SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER
16Z/28 WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. AFTER
00Z/29 WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS LOOK
TO BE WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO FAIRFIELD, IA.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
DEEP MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CAUSING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS TO
DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE NBM
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER. YESTERDAY, AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE CLOSE
TO THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WITH SUCH LOW DEW POINTS WILL DROP
HUMIDITY LEVELS INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 20-25% EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. FORECAST GFDI VALUES ARE IN THE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME CATEGORY SO ANY SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, WIND OR
HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD RESULT IN HIGHER/LOWER GFDI VALUES.
A CHECK OF THE RAWS SITES INDICATE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY 7-8 AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP FURTHER TODAY. THE
RAIN THAT OCCURRED LAST THURSDAY NIGHT WAS SPOTTY IN NATURE AND
THE AREA HAS HAD OVER 24 HOURS OF STRONG WINDS TO HELP DRY OUT
THE GROUND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 30TH....
BURLINGTON.........84 IN 1986
CEDAR RAPIDS.......82 IN 1943
DUBUQUE............81 IN 1943
MOLINE.............82 IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
098-099.
IL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ILZ001-015-024-025-034.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...08
CLIMATE...08
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