620
FXUS63 KDVN 242339
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
539 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM COULD BRUSH OUT SOUTHERN CWA WITH
SOME WET SNOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
TRENDING WEAKER AND SOUTH.
- WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A CONCERN FRIDAY.
- A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS OF SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED DENSE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, AS
WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES WELL UNDER GUIDANCE TODAY. OUR OVERNIGHT SHIFT ISSUED
A FORECAST HIGH TODAY, USING THE COOLEST GUIDANCE, AND THAT APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN A GREAT CALL, AS WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AS OF NOON, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON, AS WE
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF "WARM SECTOR" AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHEAST MN. WINDS ARE STRONG TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
CWA, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH, AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
THIS COMBINATION STILL WARRANTS SOME FIRE WEATHER RISK, BUT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35-45%,
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO CONCERNING TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE DENSE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH SLOWLY, WITH CLEARING FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS
BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, TO THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 20S OVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE AREA. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MORE PLEASANT
WEDNESDAY, DESPITE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS SEVERAL
BANDS OF F-GEN SET UP OVER THE MIDWEST. TWO MAIN BANDS OF F-GEN ARE
NOTED IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE FARTHEST NORTH BAND IS SHOWN
FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY IA, TO NEAR BURLINGTON, TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, WHILE ANOTHER MORE SOUTHERLY F-GEN BAND IS FOUND FROM
NEAR TOPEKA KS TO NEAR ST LOUIS IN THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE
REMAINS INCONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY ALL MODELS FOR THIS SYSTEM,
AND LOOKING AT THE MIDWEST, WE'RE CURRENTLY VERY DRY OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION. LOOKING AT TRENDS, THE BULK OF GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN
MORE DRY AIR, AND WITH THAT, A FARTHER SOUTH POSITION OF
SATURATION IN THE F-GEN BANDED POSITION. THE GFS OPERATIONAL
RUNS CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH, BUT NBM/WPC GUIDANCE NOW AGREES ON
A SOUTHERN TREND, AND VERY LIGHT QPF, UNDER 0.10 IN MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTH, AND DRY FARTHER NORTH. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
LOWERED IN THE NBM/WPC TO UNDER 1 INCH IN THE BAND, AND SHIFTED
WELL SOUTH OF EARLIER FORECASTS. FOR NOW, A BAND OF TRACE TO 1
INCH IS FORECAST SOUTH OF I-80 IN IOWA, AND SOUTH OF ALEDO TO
GALESBURG IN ILLINOIS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
I-80 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
WITH THIS DRY SOLUTION TREND, OUR FORECAST WILL NOW INCLUDE SOME
MENTION LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTH, AS ICE IS NOT CONSISTENTLY
AVAILABLE IN THE LATEST DATA, WHILE THE SURFACE REMAINS IN THE UPPER
20S. A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
IN SOUTHEAST IOWA, AND FAR WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. I'LL MAKE
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO, BUT NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINE, GIVEN
OUR LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT.
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF WHAT EVER FALLS (OR DOESN'T), THURSDAY WILL
SEE WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
RESULTING IN A QUICK MELT TO SNOW FREE CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY STANDS OUT AS SINGLE MILD/WARM DAY IN THIS WEEK'S FORECAST.
WITH THE WARM SECTOR FULLY OVER THE REGION AND ANY REMAINING
SNOW COVER FOUND ONLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, WE'RE SET UP WELL
TO SEE A DAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND AT LEAST SUNNY OR PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WHILE THAT'S GOING TO
PROVIDE A NICE BREEZY DAY, THE TIME OF YEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN
LEAD TO THIS BEING A LIKELY FIRE WEATHER DAY WITH DRY FUELS
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THOUGH THIS IS CURRENTLY FALLING
WELL SHORT OF RED-FLAG TYPE FORECASTS, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT, AND PROBABLY WILL MESSAGE THIS SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS OF
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT, A MESSY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FORECAST BY
EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THIS COULD BRING SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION, AND
BY THAT TIME, SOME MORE NOTABLE GULF MOIST APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
MORE
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENT CLOUD COVER WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KFT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT KCID, KDBQ,
AND KMLI THROUGH 3 UTC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH ANY CHANGE TO THE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS
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