697
FXUS63 KDVN 291052
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SLOWLY RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL ALLOW AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK TO PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-80. HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY
RISK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE AREA.
- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST AND
INCREASE THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WINDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK LATE MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH. SUNSET WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE
AND ALLOW WIND TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR THE OVERALL FIRE RISK FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>99%) OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE CHALLENGED.
WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL TEMPER THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS, BUT, DIURNAL SWINGS OF 25-30 DEGREES APPEAR
LIKELY.
THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
CHALLENGED. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...VERY HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN
AFTER SUNSET MONDAY, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL KICK IN AND TRANSPORT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO INITIATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES, THIS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ELEVATED. INDEED THERE IS EVIDENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
BUT VERY LARGE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THE INITIATION AREA LOOKS
TO BE NORTH OF I-80 AND COULD EASILY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS NORTH OF I-80. WITH ELEVATED STORMS, HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY RISK. IF DISCRETE INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOP AND PERSIST,
THIS WOULD BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, IF
STORMS BECOME MULTICELLULAR THEN THE SEVERE HAIL RISK WOULD DECREASE
IN FAVOR OF CONSIDERABLE SUB-SEVERE HAIL.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERESTING.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A SEVERE RISK
IN THE WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS AS QUICK AS LAST THURSDAY THEN THE SEVERE
RISK WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE ECMWF/ICON
MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAST THURSDAY
AND TUESDAY IS THAT THE WIND DIRECTION WAS MORE NORTHEAST WHICH
HELPED PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE LAKES FASTER. ON TUESDAY THE WIND
DIRECTION IS MORE NORTHWEST WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD RESULT IN A
SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. RIGHT NOW THE ECMWF/ICON SOLUTIONS HAVE A
30% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.
THE GFS/CMC/UKMET MODELS SHOW A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT ONLY THE
UKMET DEVELOPS A LINE OF STORMS. THE GFS/CMC HAVE A FEW STORMS WITH
MORE POST-FRONTAL RAIN. THUS IF SEVERE STORMS OCCUR ON TUESDAY, THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WOULD BE 4-11 PM AND THE LOCATION WOULD
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DOWN FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER WARM-UP FOR THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON
RAIN CHANCES.
ON WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOW FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BE KEY AS TO WHETHER WEDNESDAY IS DRY. WITH
THE GULF OPEN, RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING NORTH IN BROAD LIFT
OVER THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FRONTS. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE PLAINS.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT,
THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AND LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE A LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT, HOWEVER, SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE OTHER MOVE IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK AFFECTS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80 LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A RESPITE FROM THE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHETHER OR NOT THURSDAY NIGHT IS DRY DEPENDS ON THE STORM TRACK. A
FURTHER EAST TRACK WOULD SUPPORT RAIN ENDING THURSDAY EVENING WITH
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT DRY. A FURTHER WEST TRACK WOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A FURTHER
WEST TRACK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WITH UPPER
JET SUPPORT EJECTS OUT THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH FROM THE GULF
WILL INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INTRODUCING A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY, THEN FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
DRY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES THAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WHICH ARE CURRENTLY AT 50-60%.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. S/SE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL TURN GUSTY AFTER 15-16Z/29 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND 10 KT WITH SUNSET,
BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 KT IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN INCREASE IN
WINDS TO AROUND 35-40 KT FROM THE SW NEAR 2KFT AGL WILL BRING
LLWS CONCERNS AFTER 06Z/30 MAINLY TO KBRL AND POSSIBLY KMLI.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SUNDAY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE LATE MORNING. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DEEP MIXING THAT WILL DROP HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN SPITE OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH INTO THE AREA. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 30-35 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE WIND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
SUNSET.
MONDAY...
A MORE WIDESPREAD GFDI "VERY HIGH" FORECAST WILL BE SEEN FOR THE
AREA AS HIGHS CLIMB MAINLY INTO THE 80S WITH 15 TO 25 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEEP MIXING WILL AGAIN DROP HUMIDITY LEVELS
INTO THE 30S CREATING ANOTHER DAY OF AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRIED VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA, PARTS OF
THE AREA COULD BE BORDERLINE RED FLAG IF HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP
FURTHER THAN FORECAST.
TUESDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY OF AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. UNLIKE MONDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL TEMPER HOW MUCH HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 30TH....
BURLINGTON.........84 IN 1986
CEDAR RAPIDS.......82 IN 1943
DUBUQUE............81 IN 1943
MOLINE.............82 IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE
FIRE WEATHER...08
CLIMATE...08
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