021
FXUS63 KDVN 291128
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
628 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
..AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUED. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS
WERE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80
2) SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
TODAY, THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISH AROUND DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CWA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. AREAS MOST AT RISK ARE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM 2 PM TO 7 OR 8 PM WHEN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90 READINGS IN THE SW CWA. RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT WILL WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD WITH DEW POINTS SLOWLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AND WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
READINGS AT TIMES. TONIGHT, QUIET AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IN NW IL AND LOWER 70S IN NE
MO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MID 70S TO LOWER 80S RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
3) DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE SW HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FROM
NE TO SW EARLY SATURDAY, WITH THE RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL IL, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND PLEASANTLY COOL MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
LOWS. OPEN THE WINDOWS!
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMLI THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY, BRING A SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY WIND. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF STORM NEAR KBRL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE 12Z TAF.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-DES MOINES-
HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
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