915
FXUS63 KDVN 161732
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN ILLINOIS, WITH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH TWO PASSING
STORM SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE REMAINING BREEZY EARLY TODAY, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, AND SPORADIC GUSTS TO THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY, WITH WINDS VERY SLOWLY DECREASING TODAY.
AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES THIS MORNING, WE'LL STILL HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS ALOFT TO KEEP GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH 10-15 MPH GUSTS IN WESTERN
AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER, BUT NOT FAR OFF OF
NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER. THIS AMOUNTS TO UPPER 40S IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES, TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM TOWARDS EASTERN IOWA AT TIMES TODAY, BUT WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THIN TO MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME OPAQUE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF
WAA ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AS MAINLY MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH MONDAY. WHILE RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM, THE OVER RUNNING RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH, POSSIBLY WITH ONLY
MID 40S TUESDAY, MEANWHILE THE SOUTH WITH LESS RAINFALL, AND CLOSER
TO THE WARM SECTOR WARMS TO THE UPPER 50S. GIVEN THE STRATIFORM
NATURE OF RAINFALL, THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH POP PERIOD
(60-80%), ESPECIALLY NORTH, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY, AS THE DEEP TROF
REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH ARE AGAIN EXPECTED.
THERE REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE DEEP
WESTERN UPPER TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. WHILE THE EXACT
DETAILS ARE QUITE VARIED IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE TROPICS, AND A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR BOTH WARM FRONTAL
RAINFALL, AS WELL AS SYSTEM DYNAMICS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. QPF FROM WPC REMAINS IN THE 0.5 TO 1.25" RANGE FOR THIS
EVENT, WHILE LONG RANGE FORECAST ENSEMBLE HAS 30-50%+
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES
TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IMPACT WISE,
THIS IS A COOL WET PERIOD, AND WITH A LOW TRACK NEAR THE AREA,
THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS OF 8-12 KTS WILL TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID EVENING, BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
PASSING RIDGE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...12
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