893
FXUS63 KDVN 091057
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
557 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
ELONGATED TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROVIDE FORCING/LIFT, AND WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR IS WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DUE TO A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 RANGE.
GRADUALLY THE SHOWERS END TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
FRIDAY: COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY AS A DYNAMIC SHORT WAVE
SWEEPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN IL. THIS
CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
FORCING FROM THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CAM'S MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF
FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC INVERTED-V SOUNDING WHICH IS FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS (ISOLATED MICROBURSTS
PERHAPS?). SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR NOW BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70.
SATURDAY: A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ACTIVE PERIOD AGAIN WITH PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
HOWEVER, WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SEVERE THREATS OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2024
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING INTO ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER, LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THE
EVENING THE RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD AIR ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAINLY NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2024
RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SMALL PARTS OF THE
CEDAR, IOWA AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS.
RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE CEDAR,
IOWA AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS TO RISE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
RAINFALL. IF THE RAINFALL IS LESS THAN EXPECTED, RISES WILL
STILL OCCUR ON THESE RIVERS BUT THEY COULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. IF, ON THE OTHER HAND, RAINFALL IS HEAVIER THAN FORECAST,
MORE LOCATIONS ALONG CEDAR, IOWA AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS COULD
GO INTO FLOOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...HAASE
HYDROLOGY...08
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