331
FXUS63 KDVN 282128
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF AN IOWA CITY TO MOUNT CARROLL LINE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, ALONG
WITH RE-FREEZE OF MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 995 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. PRECEDING THE FRONT IS A
STRENGTHENING QLCS E/SE OF A KVYS (PERU, IL) TO KSPI
(SPRINGFIELD, IL) CARRYING A DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS FROM EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA.
THE FRONT WAS JUST EXITING OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
STRONG ISALLOBARIC MAX AND COLD ADVECTION FOSTERING STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50+ MPH, WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING THROUGH THE 30S AND 20S.
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ATTENDANT TO A PASSING TROUGH
AND LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WAS SHIFTING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 MOVING EASTWARD. THE BACK
EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STARTING TO OUTRUN THE COLD AIR,
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WHERE A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. ONCE
THIS MOVES OUT SOON THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A ROUND OF SNOW CURRENTLY SHIFTING
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO PVA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS MAY
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN,
MORE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SNOW WILL ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE NORTH 1/3-1/2 OF THE SERVICE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT, AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-120+ KT. THIS WILL
FOSTER RAPID SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BELOW 980
MB TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS MICHIGAN.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED A TIER OF COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD AND NOW INCLUDES AREAS FROM IOWA CITY TO MOUNT
CARROLL AND NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS
ARE FAVORED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER 1 INCH WITHIN A
POTENTIAL TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT THAT COULD SEE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS NEAR HWY 20 WITH UP TO 3 INCHES (LOW POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS). WILL ADD THOUGH SOME
CONCERNS FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND FRACTURING OF THE
SNOWFLAKES, WHICH COULD IMPACT AMOUNTS (LOWER) AND LOWER
SLRS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE FAVORED FOR BOUTS OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE FALLING
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN AREAS >0.5 TO 1 INCH, WITH ICY
UNTREATED ROADS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ROAD CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONS
FOR ANY NEED TO EXPAND THESE WINTER HEADLINES FURTHER.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE FOR WINDS THAT WILL
GUST 45 TO 55 MPH AT TIMES INTO MONDAY MORNING. PEAK WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE TONIGHT, AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS FURTHER. CAN'T
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO EXCEED 58 MPH AND THE NEED
TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. JUST NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
TIME ON HOW WIDESPREAD THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE. SO WILL
LET THE EVENING CREW MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS AND UPGRADE IF
NECESSARY.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT TO PRODUCE BITTER WIND
CHILLS AROUND ZERO TO 15 BELOW LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.
ON MONDAY, ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY THOUGH
WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. A WEAK CLIPPER MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON NEW YEAR'S EVE. LATE IN THE PERIOD,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
RATHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE TAFS.
DENSE FOG IS LIFTING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ONGOING THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW AS MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF SNOW SQUALLS
WITH A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY (LIFR TO VLIFR) IN SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 20Z-23Z PARTICULARLY AT KCID AND KDBQ BUT ALSO
POSSIBLY AT KMLI AIDED BY STRONG WINDS NW GUSTS 35-45+ KT AND
FALLING SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES CRASHING LEADING TO ICY
CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND BOUTS OF LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FAVORING KCID AND KDBQ, BUT ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMLI AT TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM LESS THAN
AN INCH SOUTH TO 1-3 INCHES FROM KCID TO KDBQ. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KCID AND
KDBQ.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-
063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>066.
IL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024>026-034-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ001-002-
007.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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