231
FXUS63 KDVN 020435
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1035 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
A QUIET, COOL AFTERNOON WAS UNFOLDING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. SKIES FEATURED PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST, WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA, WITH A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 200P RANGED FROM 34 IN DUBUQUE TO 40 IN THE QUAD
CITIES.
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ON TO THE COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
[KEY MESSAGES]
1) MILD AND WINDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH
2) STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING BRINGS CRASHING TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
[DISCUSSION]
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, AND IS PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF A EQUATORIAL JET ENTRANCE REGION WITH INCREASED
DIVERGENCE WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN WYOMING FRIDAY, WITH A QUICK TREK UP TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACCOMPANYING THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE WILL BE SEEING DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY TO VERY GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL AND CUT OFF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RESTRENGTHEN BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW GUSTY IT WILL GET FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAMPER MIXING A BIT, KEEPING US FROM
TAPPING INTO THE 40-50 KT LLJ. CURRENTLY HAVE AROUND 30-40 MPH FOR
PEAK GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. IF THERE IS AN AREA THAT
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, IT WOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 WHICH WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL TO TAP
INTO THE LLJ AND WHERE THE CORE OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THIS
FCST, BUT STILL HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG HWY 20
TO MID 50S FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT, PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS THE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HERE, SLIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
[KEY MESSAGES]
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FAVORED FOR THE LONG
TERM
2) ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK
[DISCUSSION]
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND
CAA ACCOMPANYING IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO HINT AT MIXING
TO AROUND 900 HPA, WITH A STRONG 50 KT 925-850 HPA JET JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUST AROUND 45-50 MPH
AT TIMES MID FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ENCOURAGE
ANYONE WITH LOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS, ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS,
TO TIED THEM DOWN IN PREPARATION FOR THE WINDS. THOSE DRIVING ON
NORTH TO SOUTH ROADS SHOULD ALSO USE CAUTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE AN EXACT REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE 20S AND 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME, AND
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP US DRY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
DECEMBER. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. SKIES WILL
FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING OVER THE AREA
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
MONDAY NIGHT ON...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, AS MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FURTHER SOUTH IN LATEST RUNS. WHAT IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, IS A
RETURN OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU DEC 1 2022
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY (15Z) WITH LLWS DUE
TO A STRONG LLJ. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY PM ANTICIPATE LOWER CLOUDS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IF
CEILINGS DROP BELOW 2KFT AGL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z THROUGH 04Z WITH LLWS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. THE FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A
PERIOD OF GUSTINESS THAT COULD TOP 40-45 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO PROMINENCE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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