372
FXUS63 KDVN 082315
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
- FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE DURING EVENING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EXTREME EASTERN IOWA.
- SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE HAS
AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
TWO CLIPPERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST CWA. THE
SECOND CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE
SAME AREA. WEST OF THIS AREA, A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
THEY WILL NOT BE AS A COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
QUESTIONS SURROUNDING WHETHER OR NOT THIS WIND WILL BREAK THE
TOP OF THE SNOWPACK AND RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW, REMAINS TO BE
SEEN BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TONIGHT, CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE IS TO BRING THE WAVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIMITED TO OUR FAR NE, AS SUCH
SOME POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
QPF SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
TOMORROW, GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WAVE. THE NBM, IS WAY TOO HIGH, TO THE POINT WHERE
IT IS AFFECTING THE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE IS A NEGATIVE WAY
TOWARDS HIGHER TEMPS. MOST RAW MODELS HAVE MUCH COOLER TEMPS,
AND WITH SNOW COVER, CLOUD COVER AND SHORT SOLAR INSOLATION, I
HAVE TO THINK THAT WE WILL NOT SEE TEMPS INTO THE 40S. THIS IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY TDS BARELY MAKING IT TO FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS MEANS, NO REAL MELT AND
ACTUALLY A DECENT SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR NE FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE NO ICE NUCLEATION, SO ANY
PRECIP WILL FALL AS LIQUID. LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WE COOL, ICE
IS INTRODUCED SO SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY START TO MOVE IN. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL DRIVE THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, AND I THINK THAT
THE SNOWPACK WILL WIN AS FAR AS TEMPS GO. SO, AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM MANCHESTER IA, TO CLINTON IA, TO STERLING, IL WILL
LIKELY SEE FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. UNTREATED
SURFACES COULD BECOME SLICK. OVERNIGHT TDS WARM ABOVE FREEZING
CHANGING THE FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN BEFORE THE MAIN FORCING PULLS
OUT. COULD NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW NIGHT, STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AND
WINDS. THE CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS SURROUNDING
NEIGHBORS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A GROUND BLIZZARD SETUP. WE HAVE
ABOUT 30 HOURS TO NAIL THAT RISK DOWN AND I THINK THAT WE WILL
NEED THAT TIME TO DO THAT. CAMS HAVE HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. AS WE NAIL DOWN THE GROUND
BLIZZARD POTENTIAL, BELIEVE THIS WILL LEND SOME CLARITY TO OTHER
POTENTIAL ADVISORIES GOING FORWARD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
AFTER THIS, STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKELY.
LONG RANGE CAMS DEPICT ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. THIS DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR IMPACTFUL
SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING AT A SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL, INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN LACKING FACTOR. HOWEVER, I DON'T THINK WE
CAN RULE OUT THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SNOW ON ROADWAYS AS TEMPS FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AFTER THIS, ANOTHER CLIPPER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE THE REAL ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE ECM,
WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE FIRST TO SHOW SYSTEMS, HAS AN ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW EVENT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER'S DO NOT, SO MUCH TO
IRON OUT AFTER OUR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENT. WHAT DOES SEEM
CERTAIN IS OUR COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
DUMP ON FRIDAY. QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE
ANY SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN WITH THIS FRONT. WINTER IS HERE AND WE
ARE ACTIVE!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CIGS TO THE AREA STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING, AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF IOWA. THIS
MILD AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CREATE AN INVERSION, TRAPPING THE
STRATUS OVER THE SNOW COVER IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE DAY TUESDAY. THUS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES, WITH THE LOWEST CIGS, AROUND 1500 FT
FOUND OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN
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