705
FXUS63 KDVN 301953
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
153 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY, AS A
QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. IMPACTS
DURING THE PM COMMUTE ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WHOLE WEEK,
WITH SOME WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WORKING IN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK MAY
BE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN YET THIS SEASON.
- ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
WEEKEND, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIDWEEK AND THEN LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
QUITE THE CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD OF US, AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY PASSES
THROUGH. FORTUNATELY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER THAN FORECAST. ALTHOUGH, WE
WILL STILL BE VERY COLD, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR NORTH TO THE
TEENS IN OUR SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING WIND
CHILLS FROM DROPPING TOO LOW FROM THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP. WE WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA.
AN ACTIVE START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED, AS WE SEE A WAVE EJECT
OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TREK THROUGH THE MIDWEST. EARLY IN
THE DAY, IT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AND DRY, WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERN. MID-MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WE WILL SEE THE SYSTEM MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
WITH COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAKING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SNOW.
WE WILL SEE POPS INCREASE FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW FALLING THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY
THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
FORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM, WITH LARGELY
LIGHTER ACCUMULATION WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS STORM. MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT AREAS IN OUR
NORTH SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN AN INCH. BEST CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW WILL LARGELY BE ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM CEDAR RAPIDS THROUGH DUBUQUE. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 4" FOR MOST, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR 4" (40-60% CHANCES)
ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON IA TO PRINCETON IL. SO,
THE AREA AS A WHOLE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-4"
OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT, WHERE A COUPLE
HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES, WHERE WE ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4" OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MONDAY PM COMMUTE.
AS WAS MENTIONED, THIS WILL BE A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. FROM THERE, WE WILL
REMAIN SOCKED IN CLOUDS, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
THROUGHOUT. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND PREVENT MUCH
COLDER WIND CHILLS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LARGELY REMAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH, EMBEDDED IN THAT
FLOW WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, MOST OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND BRING NOTHING BUT A CHANGE IN AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH,
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE THAT GAIN ACCESS TO BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE AREA, BRINGING ALONG THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE
BACK END OF THESE WAVES, WE WILL SEE MORE PLUNGES OF COLD AIR,
WITH A PARTICULARLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS MAY BRING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL
GET, BUT IT WILL BE COLD NONETHELESS, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST ALL WEEK.
THE FIRST WAVE TO BRING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE HAVE A WAVE PASS THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WAVE IS
DEPICTED WELL AMONGST GUIDANCE, WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. IT WOULD SEEM LIKE WE WILL GET SUFFICIENT LLVL
MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, ALBEIT STILL LOWER ON MOISTURE.
IN EITHER CASE, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW, WITH
QPF LESS THAN A TENTH. THUS, OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM, IF THERE IS MUCH OF ANY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL SEEMS TO BE A LOW IMPACT
AND LIGHT PRECIP EVENT.
THE NEXT AND MORE INTERESTING WAVE COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS IS A STRONGER WAVE, BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES
TO THE TRACK AND PHASING OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN JET STREAMS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BACK AND FORTH, BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA, WHILE THEN COMING IN DRY ON UPDATED MODELS RUNS. THUS, WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY IMPACTS.
AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS COME IN DRY, BUT SOME
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS DO FAVOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL IN OUR
SOUTHEAST. OPTED TO LEAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE NBM POPS. OTHERWISE, WE
REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER PART OF THE AREA AS WE SEE THE
STORM SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY PROGRESS EAST. CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
AROUND 1500FT AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. AROUND 00Z, WE
WILL SEE THESE CIGS RISE TO BETWEEN 3000-5000FT FOR THE NIGHT
AHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL
SEE WINDS STEADILY DECREASE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ067-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ009-015>018-024>026-035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ034.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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