963
FXUS63 KDVN 221140
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
540 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MORNING WIND CHILLS TODAY AND MONDAY AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
- DAILY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY AND BEYOND DUE TO PASSING STORM SYSTEMS.
THE GENERAL TREND ON TEMPERATURES IS UPWARDS AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.
- THE SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH MEDIUM PROBABILITIES
(40-50%) FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORM TRACK WITH IMPACTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. STAY TUNED!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. 00Z ABERDEEN, SD RAOB HAD A 500 HPA TEMPERATURE OF -36C, WHICH
IS ABOVE 10TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR DAILY MINIMUM PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. IN ADDITION, 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING
-5C TO -10C ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AT
00Z. DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN VERY COLD AIR KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY 10-15+ DEGREES INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL REMAIN
BRISK/BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS TODAY UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITHIN A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1015 MB LOW OVER ONTARIO AND A
1040-1045+ MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD, CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO TONIGHT.
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANY LOWER CLOUDS /STRATUS/ WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN THE DGZ
AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME FLAKES. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES
OF -11C TO -15C SUPPORT VERY COLD HIGHS GENERALLY FROM THE TEENS TO THE
MID 20S TODAY. WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW,
AND ONLY SLIGHTLY MODERATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. BUNDLE UP IF YOU'LL BE HEADING OUTDOORS!
TONIGHT, WILL SEE BOUTS OF CLOUDS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES WITH ANY LOW CLOUDS, WITH SOME DECREASE
POSSIBLE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME CLEARING, AND AS A
RESULT WILL SEE COLDER LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH MAINLY TEENS TO THE
EAST.
MONDAY, WILL BRING ABOUT MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AND DECREASING WIND
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. JUST ENOUGH WIND THOUGH WILL
BE FOUND IN THE MORNING TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE RANGE OF AROUND
5 BELOW TO NEAR 15 BELOW, SO KIDS WILL WANT TO DEFINITELY DRESS IN LAYERS
FOR THE BUS STOP! DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES DON'T IMPROVE ALL
THAT MUCH OVER SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGHS FROM NEAR 20 TO 30.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
WE'RE EYEING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES /CLIPPER SYSTEMS/ FOR TUESDAY
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS THEY ARE SHUTTLED
DOWN FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES IN
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST SYSTEM HAS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WISCONSIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AND TURN GUSTY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER, BOLSTERING WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT BOOSTS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S, ALTHOUGH EXISTING SNOW COVER
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST SERVICE AREA COULD MUTE THIS WARMING SOME AND
KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S. ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR WILL COME A
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, MOSTLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. MOISTURE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT 20-30%. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW SIGNAL IN SOME
OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LINGERING TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT, BUT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY AND HAVE KEPT WITH
NON-MENTIONABLE NBM POPS. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY PM ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN SERVICE AREA
WITH THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, AS THIS
AREA MISSED OUT ON ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE FROM OUR MOST RECENT
SNOW SYSTEM.
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY ONE TO WATCH FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE GFS IS NOTABLY STRONGER /MORE AMPLIFIED/
WITH THE UPPER WAVE AND RESULTS IN A COLDER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SNOW AS MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLY OF SEVERAL INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE ECMWF HOWEVER, IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND SUBSEQUENTLY WOULD SUPPORT
MORE OF A MIX WITH STILL SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT. BOTTOM LINE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS DISTANCE IN THE
DETAILS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MEANS OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEPICT THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH VERY LOOSE CLUSTERING OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM WISCONSIN,
TO OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, TO EVEN SOUTH OF THE SERVICE AREA. THIS
TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS) EXPECTED DURING THE TAF CYCLE.
INITIALLY MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO START, WITH STRATUS TO THE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHERN WI THROUGH NORTHERN IL.
ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS IS QUICKLY DIVING SOUTH
THROUGH MN INTO SW WI AND FAR NE IA. GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING THESE
CLOUDS WELL, BUT WITH THE FLOW DUE NORTHERLY IN THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER IT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO MOVE DOWN INTO
THE AREA, AND/OR LIKELY FURTHER DEVELOP OUT AHEAD WITH INITIAL SURFACE
HEATING AND COLD ADVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE CRAFTED THE 12Z TAFS WITH
THE IDEA OF MVFR BECOMING PREVALENT TODAY. SOME CLEARING AND RETURN TO
VFR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH
OF THE MN/CANADA BORDER I OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC FOR NOW. ALSO,
SOUNDINGS SHOW ANY STRATUS WILL BE IN THE DGZ AND THUS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLURRIES. NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD THESE
OCCUR AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SHOULD
ANY CLEARING OCCUR TONIGHT IT WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING TO OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, PEAK GUSTS BASED ON WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER IN
SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 25-35 KT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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