310  
FXUS63 KDVN 011047 CCA  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
547 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
   
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 7-10 DAYS HAS RIVERS RISING  
WITH SEVERAL IN OR PROJECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD.  
 
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE THE HAZY SKIES.  
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ILLINOIS AND IOWA  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW LOW RAIN CHANCES  
(15-30 PERCENT).  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
THE WILDFIRE SMOKE/HAZE REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGHOUT THE REGION EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO 3-6SM. SOME IMPROVEMENT WAS  
NOTED IN NEAR SURFACE SMOKE ALONG PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN, AND THE  
HRRR SMOKE MODEL SHOWS SOME ABATEMENT/EASING OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE AND  
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE TODAY ADVECTING IN FROM LAKE  
MICHIGAN ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN PLACE  
FOR ALL OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE TODAY, HRRR AND RRFS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE  
MODELS AND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THE SMOKE  
ALOFT WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL TODAY, AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, USHERED  
IN ON W/NW FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES AND SOME VIBRANT/COLORFUL  
SUNRISES AND SUNSETS.  
 
OVERALL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE  
TODAY PROVIDING A CONTINUATION OF COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND COOLER  
THAN NORMAL HIGHS. THERE IS A SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE  
FOR A LIGHT SHOWER TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN NW ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY  
DEVELOPING OFF A LAKE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE AXIS AND ADVECTING IN.  
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND UNCERTAIN. SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF NW ILLINOIS INTO FAR E IOWA HAS  
SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVERING INTO MID 60S, WHICH SEEMS A BIT  
HIGH WITH THE CONTINUED DRIER NE FLOW ADVECTION. THUS, FEELING  
WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF MAINLY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND  
POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES AT WORST, THUS NO MENTIONABLE POPS ATTIM.  
THE SMOKE AND BOUTS OF CIRRUS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL LIKELY  
TEMPER HIGHS TO THE MID/UPPER 70S TODAY. TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS  
AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP MAINLY  
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHT TO  
GIVE THE AC A BREAK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE INTO THE  
START OF NEXT WEEK, AS IT REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF COMFORTABLE, DRY CONDITIONS ON  
EASTERLY FLOW WITH SOME GRADUAL MODERATION AND MORE AREAS SEEING HIGHS  
IN THE LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT  
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IN UPPER LEVEL SMOKE LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF  
HAZY SKIES.  
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO RETREAT BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT S/SE FLOW AND A CONTINUED MODERATION OF  
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO TYPICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY AUGUST (HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S). THIS LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL  
ALSO BRING UP HUMIDITY TO TYPICAL LEVELS AND COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST  
SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES WITH ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES.  
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RESIDUAL MID LEVEL RIDGING AND OVERALL A SOMEWHAT MORE  
SUBSIDENCE FAVORED REGIME MAY ACT TO ERODE/WEAKEN ANY PRECIPITATION AS  
IT APPROACHES. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ANY RAIN AMOUNTS LARGELY ON  
THE LIGHT SIDE, WHICH WOULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS COMING OFF A RECORD WET  
OR TOP 5 WETTEST JULY FOR MANY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
WILDFIRE SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE AT 3-5SM. WHILE SMOKE ALOFT  
WILL REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD, THE HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MODEL DOES  
SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT/LIFTING TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR VISIBILITIES IS  
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND IT'S VERIFYING  
PRETTY WELL WITH THE IMPROVEMENT ALONG MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN CURRENTLY.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME VFR CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH ANY CEILINGS AT OR  
ABOVE 4-6KFT AGL. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER,  
PARTICULARLY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS LATER TODAY, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF  
MOISTURE AND A FEW OF THE CAMS SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE  
A BIT OVERDONE WITH SURFACE DEW POINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID 60S GIVEN  
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, I LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT THE  
TAFS. SHOULD ANY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCUR VERY LITTLE TO  
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST  
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 253 AM FRI CDT AUG 1 2025  
 
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:  
 
AUGUST 1:  
KBRL: 54/1968  
KCID: 48/1895  
KDBQ: 51/1992  
KMLI: 55/1998 AND PREVIOUS YEARS.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...MCCLURE  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
CLIMATE...MCCLURE  
 
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