167
FXUS63 KDVN 231731
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY SUNNY DAY TODAY, LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL
STREAM UP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MAKING FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK BY MID-WEEK, WITH MUCH
COLDER AND MORE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STILL SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNS THAT A WINTRY
SYSTEM MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION BY WEEKS END.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
TODAY...DENSE FOG ISSUES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA UNTIL MID MORNING
AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED. OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE A REX
BLOCK LOW ROLLS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW BUT SUBSTANTIAL INVERSIONS TODAY
LIMITING MIXING DEPTH AND PRODUCING LIGHTER WINDS TODAY THAN
SATURDAY. BUT STILL ENOUGH THERE TO PRODUCE SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT...925-850 MB LAYER FLOW PATTERN GOES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AN
TAPS INTO THE LLVL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUD FIELDS SEEN NOW FROM TX TO
THE SOUTH HALF OF MO. THUS SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECTING UP
ACRS THE WESTERN CWA AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, AND SPREAD ACRS MOST
THE REST OF THE CWA INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IF ANY OF
THE FOG WILL BE DENSE, AND MAY BE MORE 1-4SM AMBIENT TYPE FOG.
ONGOING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY PRODUCE NON
DIURNAL TEMP CURVES OVERNIGHT, WITH 12 HOUR LOWS OCCURRING BEFORE
THE LOW DECK STREAMS UP ACRS THE AREA AND THEN SLOW RISE INTO DAWN-
MONDAY MORNING. THUS COOLEST IN NORTHWEST IL IN AREAS LAST TO GET IN
ON THE STRATUS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RIDGE-UNDERCUTTING LOW TO ROLL UP ACRS THE
AREA/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, OPENING
UP AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES. PRE-SYSTEM WARM MOIST CONVEYOR WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, FUELING THE LOW CLOUDS,
LIGHT FOG AND EVENTUAL RAIN ACRS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A HIGH PWAT FEED OF 0.70 TO 0.90 OF
AN INCH UP ACRS THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BUT THE ENSEMBLE QPF
BLENDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, MORE WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.05 OF AND INCH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, TO A SWATH OF 0.20" ACRS IL.
FORCING LOOKS NOT AS CONVERGENT AS BEFORE, BUT STILL LEERY IF WE DO
GET THOSE HIGHER PWATS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SWATHS OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING. NBM BLEND HIGH
TEMPS FOR MON IN THE MID 50S MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IS WE GET PREVAILING
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. FIRST PART OF TUESDAY A LULL PERIOD AFTER
THE RAIN EXITS, WITH LINGERING MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE. BUT THEN A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL LOOK TO SHUNT A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA
AND ISALLOBARIC SURGE, BUT THAT PROCESS MAY GET SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST BEFORE TEMPS CRASH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX. THEN A BLUSTERY COLD AIR ADVECTION(CAA) NIGHT IN STORE
WITH DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE 30S AND 20S BY WED MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEDNESDAY WITH WRAP
AROUND FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH, HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S. A COLD WED NIGHT WELL DOWN IN THE 20S OR EVEN UPPER TEENS,
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR THANKSGIVING UNDER ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE COLD WILL THEN LOOK TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY TRACKS AND MID TO
UPPER JET PATTERNS ALIGN WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST RIGHT ACRS
THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE BLEND SHUNT A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG THIS STORM TRACK AND SPREADS PRECIP ACRS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL EARLY BUT THERE ARE
SIGNS OF SNOW AMOUNTS WORTHY OF HEADLINES OR WINTRY MIX MESS TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, LEADING TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND A PERIOD OF FOG. MOST
MODELS SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WHILE OTHERS ARE GOING
MORE AGGRESSIVE TO LIFR. CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO GO LIFR, BUT IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS, WE MAY NEED
TO INTRODUCE LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 18Z MONDAY, CHANCES OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE, LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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