239
FXUS63 KDVN 041130
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AS OF 2 AM CDT, THERE IS A DECAYING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THAT IS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IOWA WEST OF I-35.
CAMS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY DECAYING BUT DOES SHOW SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IT INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR FROM 7
TO 9 AM ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. ADDED 20%
CHANCES ALONG HIGHWAY 20 IN IOWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, 500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AS THIS OCCURS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 00 UTC TO 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 80S TO THE SOUTH.
AFTER 00 UTC, CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS NORTHWEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS AND THINK THAT DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REALLY SURGE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06 UTC WITH VALUES RISING TO 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES. IF RAIN IS SEEN, MOST PLACES WILL SEE A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH BUT IF A LOCATION RECEIVES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN, UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE TO THE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODELS SHOW SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN HREF CAPE
VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE BETTER ALIGNMENT OF CAPE AND SHEAR ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS A WEST OF A IOWA CITY TO
DUBUQUE LINE WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THAT SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. THIS IS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.50 INCHES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD ALSO
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY OF THESE STORM
SYSTEMS AS MODEL SHOW PWATS NEAR 2.00 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, AN OMEGA BLOCK TRIES TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE CONUS AS 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND A CLOSED LOW SITS OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN LOCATIONS
OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRAVELING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. IF THE CENTER OF RIDGE IS TO OUR EAST, THERE MAY BE
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS DISTURBANCES LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND IF THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA, IT WILL BE HOT, HUMID, AND DRY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR BROAD RIDGING CENTERED INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHUNTING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
OUR NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
MORNING, GUSTING UPWARDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WE WILL SEE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH. WE WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SLOWLY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST. THESE WILL COME CLOSE TO CID AND
DBQ THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THIS RENDITION
OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. THESE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
MVFR VIS/CIGS LATE TONIGHT, LARGELY AFTER 06Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/GUNKEL/UTTECH
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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