043
FXUS63 KDVN 301101
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY DAY TODAY WITH CHANCES (30-50%) OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
INCREASING TO 60-80% THIS EVENING WITH SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
- AFTER FRIDAY, FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WERE GIVING WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AREA BEING ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AS TWO SHORT
WAVES APPROACHED THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST, ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT IS SW OF THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THIS MOISTURE RETURNS,
WE WON'T SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF RAIN. GUIDANCE HAS THIS OCCURRING
MID TO LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME A CLIPPER LIKE TROF MOVES
IN FROM THE NW. THIS WAVE WILL BE BEHIND THE SW WAVE BUT WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THURSDAY.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SW WAVE, COVERAGE
IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL HAPPEN CLOSER TO THIS
EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. SPC HAS THE FAR SOUTH, LIKE
THE BOTTOM ROW OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA, IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LOOKING AT CAMS AND PARAMETERS FOR
STORMS, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, CAPE IS SEVERELY LACKING AND
PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT. THE MAIN RISK IN THIS MARGINAL RISK
AREA IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW AND WARM SECTOR GET. THE HREF
ENS MEAN BRINGS NO SBCAPE TO THE AREA AND THE MAX MEMBER ONLY
BRINGS 100-200 J/KG OF CAPE. IF THAT HAPPENS WE COULD SEE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, THE MEAN SUGGESTS NO CAPE AND I THINK
THAT IS BETTER FORECAST.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.
OVERALL RAINFALL RANGES FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
INDEPENDENCE, IOWA TO ALMOST 3/4 OF AN INCH IN MACOMB. SO
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR SURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES IN
QUICK SUCCESSION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP US CLOUDY
WITH POP CHANCES ON FRIDAY. AFTER THIS, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO FORM A BLOCK WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH INCREASING TEMPS INTO
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
EVEN MORE WITH A SERIES OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY NEAR BRL AND MLI TODAY, BEFORE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
TONIGHT, ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS, MVFR
VISIBILITIES, AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE NEAR BRL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
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