000
FXUS63 KDVN 090532
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1232 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
- WE WILL SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AM, WITH PLENTY OF DRY TIME IN BETWEEN. AMOUNTS
WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN OUR SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 45 TO 50 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 6
PM WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL ALONG A ROUGHLY FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHWEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 70S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED
TO NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE SINCE STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA,
WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPING IT BETWEEN INTERSTATE 80 AND HIGHWAY
34 IN IOWA. THUS, THIS HAS TRENDED SOUTH SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THURSDAY PM, AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE AND
THE LLJ SETTING UP THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH THE PERSISTENT
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
WHERE WE WILL SEE THE RAINFALL CHANCES PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WE WILL SEE A NICE SOAKING RAINFALL WITH THIS, WHERE
THE RECENT DRY DAYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EASY INFILTRATION OF THE
RAINFALL. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL GENERALLY
SEE BETWEEN 0.50-0.75" OF RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THOSE
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE SEEING UPWARDS TO 1.00" OF RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY AFTER THIS RAIN MOVES
OUT, WITH THE RAIN MOVING OUT OF OUR SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WORK TOWARDS THE AREA,
RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH-SOUTH AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR 60, RESULTING IN A PLEASANT
DAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE PUSH EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WOULD FAVOR
STRONG WAA INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY WILL
SERVE AS THE TRANSITIONAL DAY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP US LARGELY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. GOING INTO SUNDAY, WE SEE A MORE POTENT
WAVE EJECT OFF OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LLJ WILL SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK
LEADING SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. SURFACE LOW WILL THEN FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TRACK AS THE MAIN WAVE, WITH LEADING SHORTWAVES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITHOUT A BAROCLINIC
ZONE STALLED OVER THE AREA, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A FOCUSED AREA OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. RATHER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH,
LARGELY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DECENT FORCING AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOME STRONGER STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THIS WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC YESTERDAY, WHERE
THEY HAD A DAY 7 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR SOUTH,
EQUATING TO A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE. THUS, JUST
KEEP IN MIND THAT CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS IS OUT THERE, BUT
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS OUT. THUS, AS WE
APPROACH 12Z AND BEYOND, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE DRAPED OVER THE AREA. AREAS
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LARGELY SEE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST, WITH THOSE SOUTH BEING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER
18Z, WE WILL START TO SEE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE, WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEING AFTER 21Z. OPTED TO
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME, AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page