580
FXUS63 KDVN 110535
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY
THIS EVENING THEN INTO MICHIGAN BY 00 UTC ON SUNDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 40S IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA, FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI, AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWING AROUND 0%
PROBABILITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12 UTC ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING POPS INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY SPREADS INTO
THE AREA. OTHER MODELS HOLD OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION. DESPITE POPS THROUGH THE DAY, THINK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES ARE AFTER 21 UTC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CAPE LESS 200 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. .
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STORM SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT HAS SLOWED
SLIGHTLY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER NEXT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
SUNDAY...A BREEZY WARM SECTOR DAY WITH SCTRD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. IF THEY CAN GET SFC ROOTED, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IF THE BL WAA CAN BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SFC DPTS IN THE LOW 60S, ENOUGH
SFC BASED CAPE THERE FOR THE WIND CAUSE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FESTER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED SWATHS OF RAINFALL RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 BY MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP IF THE
MASS FIELD IDEAS OF THE LATEST ENSEMBLES VERIFY WITH SOUTHWEST CONUS
UPPER TROFFING AND RESULTANT ARCHING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
AIMED RIGHT UP ACRS THE CENTRAL TO UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ON MONDAY, BUT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
UPPER RIDGING TO AMPLIFY RIGHT ACRS THE CWA WITH LLVL CYCLOGENESIS
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED SFC
BOUNDARY LAYING OUT MORE TO THE NORTH ACRS MN INTO WI AND THIS IS
WHERE THE MONDAY NIGHT MCS ACTION ZONE MAY OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO
ASSESS FURTHER MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS OF COURSE, AND DEVELOPING
SEVERE RISK AREAS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ZONES. SOME OF THE SAME
TRENDS OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS MONDAY, BUT MAYBE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
PLACING PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA IN A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. AS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE UPSTREAM TROF TRIES TO LIFT OUT, THERE LOOKS TO
BE AN ALMOST DAILY THREAT OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME BOUTS OF WARM DAYS IN THIS STRETCH
AS WELL, WITH 80S LOOKING LIKLEY FOR THE BREEZY WARM DAYS OF MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH SOLID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH JUST INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW ALOFT
TAKES HOLD BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT TO TREND TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 MPH BY MID SAT
MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND TRY TO
SATURATE DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT IT MIGHT
TAKE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO DO SO. SCTRD TO ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACRS THE AREA MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A CHANCE FOR THEM TO PRODUCE PASSING BOUTS
OF MVFR IF THEY MANAGE TO CROSS OVER A TAF SITE. LATER SATURDAY
EVENING, SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 2K FT AGL MAY
APPROACH 40 T 45 KTS MAKING FOR MARGINAL LLVL WIND SHEAR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/12
AVIATION...12
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