162
FXUS63 KDVN 312328
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
628 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
..AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
18Z SURFACE DATA HAS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN
KSLB AND KCIN. THE WARM FRONT RAN EAST FROM THE STORM ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONG COLD FRONT RAN
SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
50S AND 60S EAST OF THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE
20S AND 30S WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
THROUGH 8 PM SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA. THE OVERALL FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT.
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY WITH AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM INDEPENDENCE, IA, TO CLINTON, IA, TO STERLING,
IL STARTING AT 10 PM.
ALOFT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROP FOLD MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN IOWA
CURRENTLY DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A
PERIOD OF EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING THAT MOVES FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM. AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEFORE DOWNWARD MOTIONS END THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY. THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL ALLOW A 30-35 DIURNAL RANGE FROM THE SUNDAY MORNING LOWS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL OUT. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF
RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL DICTATE OVERALL TEMPERATURES BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ANOTHER STORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
ON SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS VERY DYNAMIC AND
VERY CONDUCIVE TO GENERATING POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND OVERALL DETAILS BUT AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS WEST OF THE AREA. SUCH A TRACK WILL PLACE THE AREA IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
A STRONG UPPER JET COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA MEANS MORE THUNDERSTORMS. FROM THE LARGE PICTURE, THE
SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING. WHILE
THE MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
IF THERE IS A STRONG DRY PUNCH WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, A PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND MUCH COLDER ON
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THAT 'MAY' DEVELOP SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO RACE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH
03Z/01. BEHIND THE LINE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN UP THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z/01 BEFORE MVFR CIGS AND A PATCHY RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPS.
STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z/01 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 18Z/01.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-CEDAR-DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
WARREN.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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