993  
FXUS63 KDVN 071103  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
603 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH  
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN  
CLUSTERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AIDED BY SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVES /RIDGE RIDERS/ EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. A RESERVOIR OF DRIER AIR WAS NOTED AROUND THE  
GREAT LAKES ATTENDANT TO HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS  
BEGINNING TO DRAW IN SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN IL WHERE  
DEW POINTS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE, FOR MANY  
IT'S QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- CONTINUED UNSETTLED/ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A  
COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY  
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
ROUND ONE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOSTLY OUR SOUTHERN  
AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE VIA A SMALL MCS OVER NORTHWEST  
MO EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD THIS MORNING IN LINE WITH  
CORFIDI VECTORS. AND ALSO, A BURGEONING WAA BAND OF CONVECTION  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHWARD. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE CONVECTION IN SOME AREAS AND AN  
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS OVER 2 TO  
2.5 INCHES SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN  
SOME AREAS AND AN ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THUS THE FLOOD  
WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z. CAN'T RULE SOME FURTHER  
DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH FLANK LATER THIS MORNING LIFTING TOWARD  
THE I-80 CORRIDOR, BUT PRIMARILY THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO  
BE FOCUSED NEAR AND SOUTH OF HWY 34. GUSTY WINDS VIA PRECIP  
LOADING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MORE ROBUST STORM  
ACTIVITY/CLUSTERS.  
 
ROUND TWO OF CONVECTION OFFERS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF BOTH  
AREAL COVERAGE AND LATITUDINAL EXTENT. IN GENERAL WE'RE EYEING  
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE ROCKIES  
ASSISTING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NE AND KS.  
THESE WAVES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND FOSTER  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE PM AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. VISUALLY  
ON SATELLITE THEY APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN LATITUDE TO  
THE WAVE TRIGGERING THE SMALL MCS THIS MORNING, AND THUS WOULD  
TEND TO SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY IN AND/OR JUST SOUTH OF  
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, COMPLEX POTENTIAL  
PHASING WITH SD WAVE ADDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND COULD  
LEND SUPPORT TO SOME NORTHWARD SHIFT OF PRECIP AREA TONIGHT  
CLOSER TO I-80 CORRIDOR GIVE OR TAKE AS NOTED IN SOME OF THE CAM  
AND DETERMINISTIC QPF GUIDANCE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE NOT  
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT  
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED TODAY AS HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE  
A PRIMARY THREAT. OVERALL, THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS GENEROUS AND  
TOWARD A BLEND OF THESE SCENARIOS, AND THUS HAS MANY AREAS WITH  
MODEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. PLAN FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS TODAY,  
AS WE WATCH TRENDS UNFOLD TO OUR WEST. THIS IS THE NATURE OF  
SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE FORECASTING.  
 
HIGHS TODAY, HAVE GONE WITH THE COOLER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DUE TO THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS.  
WITH MORE SUN AT TIMES FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY INITIALLY, WE  
SHOULD SEE WARMER HIGHS ALONG/N OF I-80 IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT, MUGGY AND GENERALLY AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S IN MANY  
AREAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. AN ACTIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG  
TERM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA  
EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR  
MID JULY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATUES ARE IN THE MID 80S WITH NORMAL  
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS 12 UTC FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT  
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO  
A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.  
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL STILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH  
MODEL AMOUNTS AROUND 2.00 TO 2.20 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL  
STILL BE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHEAR WILL BE LOWER DURING  
THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT  
THIS TIME, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL RISK  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.  
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING  
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.  
DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE LOWER 80S.  
 
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAMPS DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE LEE  
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER, AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE  
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT  
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH MODEL VALUES AROUND  
1.75 INCH BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN. THE  
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS  
MODELS SHOW INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
BEYOND MONDAY, MODELS SHOW CONTINUED DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS  
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS RIDGING REBOUNDS TO OUR WEST AND DEEP  
TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE  
AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID  
JULY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS  
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND STORMS  
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT BRL  
13-16Z. THEREAFTER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT BRL IS MOST  
FAVORED FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND ROUND, BUT THE OTHER TERMINALS  
COULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-  
JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.  
 
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH.  
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE  
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...COUSINS  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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