977
FXUS63 KDVN 081938
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 70S SOUTH OF HWY 30.
- SEVERE RISK INCREASING TUESDAY SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA,IA TO
STERLING,IL LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. ALL SEVERE MODES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- REPEATING ROUNDS OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAINLY SOUTH
I-80.
- TURNING COLDER MID-LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE SEEN AREA-WIDE,
AS WE BEGIN TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT PER OUR 18Z DVN
SOUNDING AND VWP. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS IA WAS ALSO
SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUNDED THIS MORNING AND AT 1PM, WERE ALREADY IN THE
MID 50S/LOW 60S. SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE OBSERVED TWO HOT SPOTS SO
FAR, INDICATING A FEW BURNS TAKING PLACE.
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS WE CONTINUE
TO DRY OUT WITH DEAD FUELS AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ONGOING.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED AND AN SPS MAY STILL BE NEEDED
FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WAA TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD OVERNIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
MONDAY...CONTINUED WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINED WITH A
WARM START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR DETAILS. THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA IS IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 14-15C RANGE WHICH
IF VERIFIED ON OUR 18Z SOUNDING WOULD BE A TOP 15 WARMEST FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH! LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 15 MPH, SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FIRE DANGER RISK MONDAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS NEAR THE
WARMEST OF ANY GUIDANCE WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, BUT
IF WE MIX ANY DEEPER THAN FORECAST THAN WE COULD BE EVEN WARMER.
NOT A BAD WAY TO START THE WORK WEEK!
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE, AS
A CLOSED LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND PHASES WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. IN ADDITION, TRAINING OF STORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT 1-2" RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IL. A LARGE TEMPERATURE
'BUST' POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST TUESDAY WITH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SURGING SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
SEVERE POTENTIAL:
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST MO TO JUST SOUTH OF THE QCA
TUESDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION EVIDENT BY INCREASING 850MB THETA-E AND PWS
RISING INTO THE 1.2-1.4" RANGE COMBINED WITH BUILDING CAPES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO JUST SOUTH OF A DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS
LINE, AND THE ENHANCED RISK FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF THE QUAD
CITIES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED WELL BY ALL MACHINE LEARNING/AI
FORECASTS OUT OF NCAR/NSSL AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
REGARDS TO THE THREAT AREA. THE QUESTION BECOMES WILL STORMS
INITIATE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC
FORCING PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RATHER STOUT CAP IN PLACE THAT WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME AND AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE
TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE CAMS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE PRIOR TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. IF A STORM DOES INITIATE IN
THE AFTERNOON, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A CLASSIC 'LOADED GUN' WITH A NICE CURVED
HODOGRAPH FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND SPIN-UPS FOR STORMS THAT
CROSS THE WARM FRONT.
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES AFTER 00Z ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS TO FORM AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE MUCH LIKE
IT DID WITH THE PREVIOUS STORMS LAST WEEK, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK TO DAMAGING WIND DUE TO PRECIP LOADING AND
HEAVY RAIN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE IN PLACE AND WITH REPEATING ROUNDS OF
STORMS MAY BRING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS
EXPANDED ITS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A SIGOURNEY,IA TO STERLING IL LINE FROM 12Z TUESDAY
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ALSO OF NOTE, 65 MEMBERS OF THE 100
MEMBER LREF ENSEMBLE DENOTES AT LEAST A 0.50" QPF BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY FOR BRL GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME APPRECIABLE
RAIN TOTALS.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER
COASTER BUT GENERALLY TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MODELS
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A WARM FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A QUICKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, THUS HIGHS FRIDAY
COULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. NBM INTERQUARTILE
RANGES (25-75TH PERCENTILE) ILLUSTRATE THIS CONCERN OR CHALLENGE
ON HIGHS DIFFERING BY 15-20+ DEGREES. SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (RAIN/SNOW) WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. DEEP MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE GUSTY SW WINDS
BETWEEN 20-30KTS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A BRIEF DECREASE IN WINDS
MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING LATE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LLWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN AFTER 02Z
AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION WITH THIS FORECAST. WINDS TO FINALLY
SUBSIDE UNDER 12KTS AFTER 10Z MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KBRL: 74 IN 1986
KCID: 68 IN 2021
KDBQ: 65 IN 1977
KMLI: 71 IN 2021
MARCH 10:
KBRL: 76 IN 1955
KMLI: 74 IN 1955
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS/MCCLURE
AVIATION...GROSS
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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