410
FXUS63 KDVN 010001
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
..AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
COOL AIR IS POURING INTO THE MIDWEST, THOUGH THE DEEP MIXING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IS BOTH ALLOWING FOR A MILD HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
AND HAS BROUGHT THE EXPECTED 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG WINDS THAT
HAVE REACHED NEAR 45 MPH IN SPOTS, MEASURED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON
ASOS, WHICH IS A 10M MOUNTED WIND SPEED MEASUREMENT AND COULD BE
HIGHER THAN THE AWOS UNITS.
IN ANY CASE, IT'S WINDY, AND UPSTREAM, THERE AREA PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MN/WI.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES COOL, THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD DECREASE AND WE SHOULD COOL INTO THE 40S, UNDER DRY
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT IS SEEN IN MN/WI ARE EXPECTED
HERE, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS FORMING BY MID MORNING, AND
LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QPF SHOULD BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY, BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MODERATE CHANCE POPS. I'VE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS
WELL, AS EVEN LOW 50S WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE CAPE VALUES OF 20 TO 50.
WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAKER TOMORROW, THUS WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS TODAY. IN ADDITION, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP AS UPDRAFTS
STRATIFY OUT INTO AN ELEVATED STRATOCUMULUS LAYER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
ERVIN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
KEY POINTS...
1. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST IN SOME
PLACES
2. 50S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A WARM-UP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S BY MID WEEK
3. RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN DRY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA, WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH -2 TO -4C
850 MB TEMPS DROPPING OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WILL BE
SEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH UPPER 30S TO THE SOUTH.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE NW QUARTER OF THE CWA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST. IF
WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT, FROST FORMATION MAY BE HINDERED.
FRIDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST
IN PARTS OF NW IL, AS TEMPERATURES SLIP INTO THE MID 30S, BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT RAIN-MAKER, OPTED TO LEAVE
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PERIOD BEYOND FRIDAY. THE CURRENT
BLENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-40
PERCENT) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. LINGERING SLIGHT
CHANCES REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY TONIGHT INTO THE 5-10 KT
RANGE AS VFR PREVAILS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS, BRIEF MVFR, AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
A PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
COULD LEAD TO MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE AT KDBQ; KCID IS ON THE
EDGE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...UTTECH
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