312
FXUS63 KDVN 211104
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
604 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD/RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK.
- CHANCES (20-30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALBEIT HIGHS STILL NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL.
- PASSING SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHIFTING WINDS AND FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, AIDED BY A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
TURNING GUSTY AT 20-30 MPH BY AFTERNOON WILL ADVECT IN AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIRMASS (850 HPA TEMPERATURES 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). 925 HPA TEMPERATURES PROGGED AT
20C TO 24C WOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE THE WARMEST FOR A DVN
RAOB IN MARCH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1995 PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. THE WARMEST WAS 22C ON 3/14/2025, WHICH CORRELATED
TO A HIGH OF 83 AT MLI, 82 AT DVN ON THAT DAY. SO, WE SHOULD
EXPECT A DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80S, WHICH WILL CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). WOULDN'T RULE OUT
A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF AN IOWA CITY TO MACOMB LINE COMING
CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES BASED ON SURFACE PARCEL TRAJECTORIES
FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE KANSAS CITY YESTERDAY HIT 90
DEGREES MAKING IT THE EARLIEST 90 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD SINCE
1888! FROM A BLIZZARD TO POTENTIALLY NEEDING AIR CONDITIONING
IN A SPAN OF 6 DAYS WITH EARLY SUMMER-LIKE (MID/LATE JUNE)
WARMTH/HEAT TODAY! HOW WILD IS THAT... YOU GOTTA LOVE IT!!
THE VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND EVENTUAL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DRYING OF FUELS AND
TOPSOIL LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK TODAY. OF GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WHERE SOIL MOISTURE RANKINGS
AS OF MARCH 19TH WERE MAINLY IN THE 10TH-25TH PERCENTILE.
DESPITE THE RECENT PRECIPITATION, THE RAPID NATURE OF THE
SNOWMELT, STRENGTHENING SOLAR INSOLATION AND WARMTH WITH WIND
ALL COMBINE FOR QUICK DRYING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF A FEW FIELD
FIRES YESTERDAY IN MCDONOUGH COUNTY, IL. PLEASE AVOID BURNING IF
AT ALL POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE PLACES THE FRONT NEAR HWY
30 TO NORTH OF I-80 BY 12Z SUNDAY, FAIRLY TYPICAL PLACEMENT
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH STILL A CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN AND A
VEERING POST-FRONTAL WIND FLOW MORE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TONIGHT,
COOLEST IN THE NORTH (40S) AND MILD TO THE SOUTH (50S/NEAR 60)
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS FASTER FRONTAL TIMING HAS LEND TO A DOWNWARD TREND ON HIGHS
SUNDAY, AND A LARGER RANGE (40S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH). GOING HIGHS
WERE TRENDED DOWN TOWARD THE MEDIAN OF THE NBM GUIDANCE, BUT
STILL CONCERNS THEY ARE TOO WARM AND NEED FURTHER LOWERING
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HWY 34 WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF POST-FRONTAL
LOWER CLOUDS, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND ALSO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN (AIDED BY JET DYNAMICS AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN
RESPONSE THAT SAGS EAST/SOUTHEAST). IT'S GOING TO BE QUITE THE
CHANGE GOING FROM AN EARLY SUMMER-LIKE DAY TODAY TO A BRISK,
FALL-LIKE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 AS AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH SQUEAK OUT EARLY HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
BEFORE TEMPS DROP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LOWS MORE
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND ON MONDAY, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A
LARGE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND
EXPANSION OF MID LEVEL WARMING TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SHUTTLE
SEVERAL WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
FOSTER FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES HEADING BEYOND MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE SITES AND FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 10Z) WHEN SOME LOWER STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KDBQ AND KCID IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND
ONSET OF NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
CEILINGS <3KFT AGL ARE ONLY 20-30% AT KDBQ AND KCID AFTER 09Z.
GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY AND THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER CEILINGS BEING SO LATE IN THE PERIOD, I HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH SITES WHILE KMLI AND KBRL WILL
ALSO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. BACKING UP JUST A BIT, TODAY WE'LL
SEE A WARM FRONT PASS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM E/SE TO SW WITH GUSTS 20-25+ KTS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT, A PERIOD OF
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KMLI AND KBRL AS WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45 KTS
FROM WSW NEAR 2KFT AGL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
RECORD HIGHS:
MARCH 21
BURLINGTON: 88 IN 1907
CEDAR RAPIDS: 85 IN 1938 AND PREVIOUS
DUBUQUE: 81 IN 1938
MOLINE: 82 IN 1938 AND PREVIOUS
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...MCCLURE
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