056
FXUS63 KDVN 262316
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MOISTURE AXIS AT 850MB
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL NUDGE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN FESTERING ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOST
OF THE DAY TODAY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH
AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE CWA POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MID
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS COMING TO FRUITION, SO OPTED
TO INTRODUCE SOME HIGHER, BUT SILENT POPS, AS A PLACE HOLDER.
LOWS WILL BE 55 TO 60 EAST AND LOW TO MID 60S WEST.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE
BACK OF THE HIGH BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION. IF
SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY
SIMILAR TO TODAY. LATER ON, SOME ACTUAL SLIGHT (20) RAIN CHANCES
NUDGE INTO THE FAR SOUTH CWA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS ACROSS MO AND IL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WE WILL SEE TWO MAIN ROUNDS OF
HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES. THE FIRST WILL BE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST HALF. AFTER A
LULL, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES (30-50) ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OF 5, FOR OUR FAR WEST
AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH SOME MINOR EDITS:
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
PLACING OUR REGION ON THE NORTHERN END OF A LARGE HEAT DOME.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION,
LEADING TO A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION. HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE CONVECTIVELY IS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN
THAT THE EARLIER ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL AUGMENT THE ENVIRONMENT
TO IMPACT THE LATTER ROUNDS OF STORMS. SO, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
REALLY PIN DOWN TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AT THIS
TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS AS CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS COOLER THAN WHAT THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING. IF STORMS DON'T DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING, HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100, OR MORE, ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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