276
FXUS63 KDVN 252313
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL COLD AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THAT PERIOD FOR WIND
CHILLS FROM 15 BELOW SOUTH TO NEAR 30 BELOW IN THE NORTH.
ALSO, PATCHY SHALLOW DRIFTING IN RURAL AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS NEARING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 30.
- A CHANCE FOR A WEAK CLIPPER OR TWO TO SCOOT BY SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AREA, OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY WEEK AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE DVN CWA BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TIGHTENING
LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACRS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AND THE HEADLINE MAKING CYCLONE ROLLING UP THE
EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY AND APPALACHIA. RESULTANT BRISK NORTH SFC WIND
OF 10-20 MPH WILL MAINTAIN INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW COMBINED
WITH IT'S COLD AIR ADVECTION(CAA) THE REASON FOR THE ALREADY ISSUED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO. A -22C H85 MB COLD POOL PROGGED
TO BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA AT 12Z MONDAY. MOST AMBIENT LOW TEMPS
RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. CLOUD COVER MAY BE AN ISSUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THE STUBBORN STRATOCU COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FINALLY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF BACK CLOUD LAYER
FLOW AND THUS STARTING TO RETREAT BACK EAST AND EDGE ERODE. BUT
OTHER STRATOCU ACRS SD/NE/SOUTHEAST MN MAY TRY TO DRIFT THIS WAY
OVERNIGHT SO THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY CLOUD COVER AT TIMES MAKING
FOR SFC TEMP VARIATIONS.
MONDAY...AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY, BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES ACRS
MUCH OF THE UPPER MID HALF OF THE CONUS WILL LOOK TO SHUTTLE A
CLIPPER WAVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE HEART OF THE GRT LKS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE TO START INDUCING AN INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL VERTICAL FLOW PROFILE, WITH H85 MB JET LOOKING TO INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA FROM THE WEST AND FLUSH OUT THE COLD
POOL. SFC TEMPS WILL STEADILY RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WITH 12 HOUR HIGHS PROBABLY OCCURRING
AT AROUND 00Z TUE. SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL PUT
QUITE AN EDGE TO ANY WARMING AMBIENT TEMPS. TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO
HOLD UP IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS INTO TUE MORNING,
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM NOT TO HAVE MUCH OF A MOISTURE DRAW AND MOST OF
IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL STAY JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE DVN CWA, OR AT WORST A FEW FLURRIES SKIRT ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
TUESDAY TO TREND TO A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WIND DAY WITH CAA GETTING
TRACTION AS THE DAY MOVES ALONG...BUT NOT AFTER MIXING PRODUCES HIGH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. ONGOING/BLOCKED BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DOWN RE-ENFORICNG BOUTS OF COLD AIR, AND
SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS UNDULATING DOWN ACRS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CONUS. TOO HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT IF ONE SUCH WAVE
OR TWO MAY SKIRT THE REGION CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME NUISANCE LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES A FEW TIMES THIS UPCOMING WEEK, AND NOW IT'S LOOKING
LIKE IT MAY BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE HOME TEAM IF THE LATEST ENSEMBLES
ARE CORRECT. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE LOST THE WEDNESDAY
CLIPPER ACRS THE LOCAL AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS, BELOW NORMAL TRENDS LOOK TO CONTINUE IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL NIGHTS THIS WEEK WE MAY
NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL COLD, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR.
THIS WHILE ICE CONTINUES TO THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL VERY SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY EAST OF LOCAL TAF SITES SO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
AIRPORTS DURING THIS COLD NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 9-13
KT. THESE WINDS EASE SOME AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY BACK WESTERLY,
BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20+ KT ARE PROBABLE IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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