098
FXUS63 KDVN 250551
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY PM WITH A
LEVEL 3 OF 5 RISK FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.
- FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LEAD TO
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH PLENTY OF SUN ON SATURDAY
PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
ON SUNDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
AS RIDGING CENTERED OVER INDIANA BUILDS AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
500 MB TROUGH AND IT'S ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFT FROM
COLORADO/KANSAS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12 UTC TUESDAY.
CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DEPICT THIS TROUGH AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE CURRENT TIMING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY.
MONDAY: DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS (WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION), ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS AN UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
(NCAR/NSSL/CSU) HAS THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. WITH THAT
SAID, SPC HAS A LEVEL 3 OF 5 RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
FOR MONDAY. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT, ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FAVORED TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED
TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND!
TUESDAY ON: THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ABSORBED INTO A
DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THAT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN U.S. TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE AREA
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW PRESENT IN MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
BRINGING A RETURN TO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE PERIOD
WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND
GUIDANCE HAS THE STRATUS EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM 9 TO 15 UTC
AND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO KDBQ AND KMLI BY 12 UTC WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 12 UTC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...COUSINS/UTTECH
AVIATION...COUSINS
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