885
FXUS63 KDVN 042045
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED VERY COLD THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO!
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH 40-70% PROBABILITIES OF 2+" NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CLIPPERS
TRACKING NEAR THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AFTER RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING,
WE'LL BE A LITTLE "WARMER" TONIGHT DUE TO STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
LIMITING DECOUPLING NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY RISE
LATE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. LATEST FORECAST
HAS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, COLDEST IN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS AGAIN WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
MIN VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...BRRR!
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE LATE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT COULD
RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
NORTHEAST COUNTIES, OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO A
LOSS OF IN-CLOUD ICE (PRECIP CHANCES: 10-20%). OVERALL, IT LOOKS
LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY AND LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EVENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHER, NOW BETWEEN
40-70% FOR 2"+ (ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34). AND THE
PROBABILITIES FOR 4"+ ARE BETWEEN 20-40% NEAR AND W/NW OF THE
QUAD CITIES. THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
BAND OF 0.20-0.30"+ OF QPF AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE WETTER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER EC SCENARIO.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 20S, WITH COLDER
VALUES IN THE TEENS/20S EXPECTED SUNDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: COLD START TO THE WORK WEEK SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER 1034MB SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS THIS MORNING, WITH 850MB
TEMPS 4C WARMER. STILL COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH SUB- ZERO
LOWS MONDAY MORNING. TWO MORE CLIPPERS TO TRACK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST (ONE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AND ANOTHER 24HRS LATER) WITH
A GENERAL CONSENSUS KEEPING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW POTENTIAL NORTH
ACROSS MN/WI. WE WOULD INSTEAD SEE A WARM DRAW OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. LREF (100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE) IS SHOWING
40-70% PROBABILITIES OF 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR ANY UPDATES AND TRENDS WITH THESE PASSING
SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...UTTECH/GROSS
AVIATION...UTTECH
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