545
FXUS63 KDVN 102347
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEIGHTENED RISK (LEVELS 3/4 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING, ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD CITIES. LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN GOLF
BALL SIZE IS THE HAZARD THAT IS MOST PROBABLE, AND TORNADOES
WILL MATERIALIZE WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE FRONT.
STAY WEATHER AWARE AND PLAN AHEAD.
- A TRANSITION TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND FLASH FLOOD RISK
WITH ANY REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS SHOULD HAPPEN LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ON THE IL SIDE.
- TURNING COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HONING OF THE FORECAST IN SPACE, TIME,
AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SUSTAINED,
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS, IS PRONOUNCED AND STRETCHES FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES EASTWARD ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG I-80.
THIS HAS A 15 TO 20° GRADIENT ALONG IT. THIS FRONT IS BASICALLY
STATIONARY IN ILLINOIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE GUSTIER SOUTH
WINDS, WHICH ARE OFTEN SOMETHING WE LOOK FOR RIGHT UP TO A FRONT
FOR GOOD TORNADO POTENTIAL, ARE STILL A LITTLE WAYS SOUTH
(APPROACHING PEORIA AND AND MACOMB). ALSO IN NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND IN SPOTS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE BILLOW PATCHWORK CLOUDS,
INDICATIVE OF HIGH VALUES OF HELICITY IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE (I.E. SPIN POTENTIAL).
THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE CONCERNING FOR TORNADOES LATER
TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN INGEST THAT MOIST,
UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES, THIS THREAT COULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED, AND WILL DEPEND
ON IF SUPERCELL STORMS CAN STAY LATCHED ON THE FRONT, OR IF THE
RAIN-COOLED AIR EACH PRODUCES (RFD) IS QUITE COLD AND SHIMMIES
THE FRONT A LITTLE SOUTH AND INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS CANNOT INGEST
THAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FOR A LONG ENOUGH DURATION. THAT CAN
HAPPEN IF THOSE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE NOT RIGHT UP TO THE FRONT.
NONETHELESS, ROTATING STORMS ARE ALMOST A GIVEN LATER TODAY
IN/NEAR THIS MODERATE RISK, WITH LARGE HAIL A NOTEWORTHY THREAT
AND A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
OR IN THAT NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. STAY WEATHER
AWARE!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL WITH IT RUNNING JUST
SOUTH OF I-80 BEFORE TURNING AND GOING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA. A
SECONDARY LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WITH OBSERVATION SITES SHOWING
GUSTS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ALSO 10-15 KNOTS INDICATING
RESPECTABLE INFLOW FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS. 18Z DVN SOUNDING
HAS A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BUT STILL A CAP ABOVE IT. SAID
CAP IS THE KEY AS HRRR TRENDS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH STORM
INITIATION TIME.
THUS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK LOW.
THAT BEING SAID THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE CAP IS OVERCOME. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE DISCRETE CELLS THAT RAPIDLY GROW UPSCALE
INTO MULTI-CELLULAR LINES.
DATA INDICATES RAPID STORM MOVEMENT OF 40-45 KNOTS TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH HAIL/WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS. IF
STORMS TURN MORE TO THE EAST, THEY WILL SLOW DOWN TO ABOUT 30
KNOTS WITH A MORE SHEARED INFLOW AND THUS BEING A TORNADO/HAIL
RISK.
THE TIME FRAME BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM STILL LOOKS TO BE PRIME TIME
FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 AND GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ALL SEVERE WEATHER
MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SEVERE
RISK IS MUCH LOWER. STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY RISK. AN EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI RIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE SURFACE
BASED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, INDICATING A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
AS THE PRIMARY RISKS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
AFTER 10 PM A BRIEF BREAK IN STORM AND RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE COMES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A DUBUQUE, IA TO
OTTUMWA, IA LINE AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
QUICK LOOK AT LONGER RANGE. WEDNESDAY...A BLUSTERY RAW DAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND A COLD POST-FRONTAL RAIN REGIME, POSSIBLY
MIXING OR CHANGING OVER TO WET SNOW ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEFORE
EXITING OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING. MID CONUS STEERING PATTERN
CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN A CLIPPER INTO THE
GRT LKS, POSSIBLY BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THU NIGHT. DAILY
UP AND DOWN TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR PHASING TRENDS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER THAT COULD TRANSLATE INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ONGOING STORMS AT 11.00Z TAF ISSUANCE HAVE FORMED FARTHER
NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS AT KCID AND KDBQ TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, SEVERE STORMS
SITTING BETWEEN KBRL AND KMLI, PRIMARILY MOVING EAST WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS, INITIALLY SHIFTED NORTH AFTER INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED TSRA AT KMLI WHILE
STORMS APPEAR TO BE SPLIT AROUND THE 5SM AND 10SM RINGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE.
EVENTUALLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS STRONGER STORMS EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
RA/SN MIX POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 10:
KBRL: 76 IN 1955
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...FRIEDLEIN
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ARX/JAR
CLIMATE...12
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