360
FXUS63 KFSD 110240
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
840 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE 7 DAY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NEARLY EVERY DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS MAY LEAD TO
LOW END FIRE DANGER RISKS INTO NEXT WEEK, MORE FOCUSED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON; HOWEVER, LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
RISKS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN VERY LIGHT, WITH PROBABILITIES OF
MORE THAN 0.10" REMAINING LESS THAN 10%. ANY SNOW WILL BE LESS
THAN 0.5", AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIMIT THE
LONGEVITY OF THE SNOW COVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 826 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED
TONIGHT'S LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CIRRUS CLEARING AND WINDS STARTING TO BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
ALTHOUGH VERY PATCHY VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS
DECREASING, WITH 10.18Z HREF GUIDANCE TRENDING DOWN IN
PROBABILITIES SO REMOVED MENTION.
REFINED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
11.00Z CAMS ARE COMING IN WITH LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THAN
THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. SO FURTHER REFINEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
MORE OF THE 11.00Z DATA COMES IN. REGARDLESS, ANY PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF OVER
0.01" AROUND 40-60% ACROSS THE AREA (TRENDING DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE) AND PROBABILITY OF OVER 0.10"
REMAINS LESS THAN 10%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S IN MANY
LOCATIONS. GUSTY MORNING WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ARRIVES.
TONIGHT: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE RETURN OF MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION
MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE DRY GROUND AND
INITIAL CLEARING OF SKIES COULD LEAD TO A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE THAT
DROP. IF TEMPERATURES FALL FAR ENOUGH, THEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OR EAST OF I-29.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: HEIGHTS RISE EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW-LVL
WARM ADVECTION INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WIND SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS JUST ABOVE THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC AND TOWARDS THE 75TH. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING THE 20-25 MPH MARK COULD LEAD TO HIGH GFDI VALUES IN
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PATCHY AREAS OF VERY HIGH LEVELS NEAR THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY, AS MID-LVL
VORTICITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE QPF
OUTPUT FROM 12Z MODELS, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STILL REMAINS MARGINAL
AHEAD OF THE WAVE, SUGGESTING THAT PRECIPITATION MAY STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP INITIALLY. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GREATER CHANCES
AT GRADUAL TOP-DOWN SATURATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING AS THE LIFT ARRIVES, WITH LOW-LVL COLUMN TEMPERATURES
SUGGESTING NEARLY 50/50 PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/SNOW. THE LOWEST 500
FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE THE FINAL DETERMINATION OF THE P-TYPE,
BUT HAVE HEDGED A LITTLE BIT TOWARDS SNOW AND ADJUSTED POPULATION
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH P-TYPE IN THAT DIRECTION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER WITH 60-70% ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF QPF >0.01"
AND LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER
FAR EASTERN SODAK, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. NBM
PERCENTILE QPF BACKS THIS THOUGHT UP AS WELL, WITH 25TH
PERCENTILE OF A TRACE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 0.08". WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST BY MID- DAY AND TEMPERATURE CONTINUING
TO RISE INTO THE 40S ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WON'T LINGER FOR LONG.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: WE'LL REMAIN IN A BIT OF A MUDDY NORTHWESTERLY MID-
LVL FLOW PATTERN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL WEATHER IMPACTS HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 50S BOTH DAYS WITH BOTH THE LREF AND NBM SHOWING A NARROW SPREAD
IN THE 25/75TH OF ONLY 4-5 DEGREES. SHOULD CLOUDS AVOID US,
SATURDAY COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NBM
SITTING CLOSER TO THE 90TH THAN THE 75TH.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: NO SHORTAGE OF WARM AIR INTO NEXT WEEK AS MID-LVL
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A WEST COAST TROUGH
ARRIVES. SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. WHILE NOT STRONG (20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS), WE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE 50S TO START NEXT WEEK, WITH THE NBM
MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE
75 PERCENTILE SUGGESTING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME, A LOOK AT CLIMATE RECORDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE'LL BEGIN TO APPROACH, BUT LIKELY NOT
EXCEED, RECORD VALUES.
CLIMATE TIDBIT OF THE DAY: SIOUX FALLS IS ALREADY SITTING AT 5 DAYS
OF HIGHS 45 DEGREES OR WARMER THIS MONTH. WITH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS FORECAST ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD, THIS WOULD PLACE FEBRUARY 2026
WITH THE 2ND MOST 45+ DEGREE DAYS IN RECORDED HISTORY (18 IN 2024).
IF WE COULD SOMEHOW REACH 45 DEGREES TODAY, THE POTENTIAL
CONSECUTIVE STREAK OF DAYS AT 45+ DEGREES WOULD BREAK THE
CONSECUTIVE RECORD OF 12 IN A ROW SET BACK IN 1981.
SIMILAR STATISTICS ARE FOUND AT SIOUX CITY WITH THE MOST 45+ HIGH
TEMPERATURE DATES AT 19 SET IN 2024 AND AT HURON THE RECORD IS 15 IN
1931.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
SHIFTING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS AND ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND THE REGION. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
VALLEY FOG TONIGHT; HOWEVER, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CONDITIONS (VISIBILITY LESS THAN 5 SM) LESS THAN 30% AND AWAY
FROM ANY TAF SITES, WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SG
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