597
FXUS63 KFSD 272312
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
512 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DIVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MN AND BRING A VERY
SMALL AREA OF WEAK LIFT AND SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER FROM
AROUND DE SMET THROUGH SIOUX FALLS TOWARD STORM LAKE LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL BE FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR SO IF ANY SNOW
CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS WILL ALSO
HELP REINFORCE THE COLD AIR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
BUILD SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW,
ALBEIT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AMOUNTS AND WINDS WILL NOT
PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE. SATURATION AND LIFT SLIDE DOWN THE MISSOURI
RIVER TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER DURING THIS TIME. WILL WATCH FOR
TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY AS MANY TIMES IN SCENARIOS WITH A
STRONGER INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH THE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY ENDS UP BEING A
BIT DRIER AND AMOUNTS ARE LESS AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEP COLD AIR BURIED IN THE REGION WITH THE
LAST OF THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO -10 TO -20 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WHILE SNOW CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, A
SURGE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME MINOR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A WAVE PASSES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AREA AND
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOWFALL. RIGHT NOW MODEL OUTPUT IS
PRETTY LOW ON PRECIPITATION AND CHANCES FOR MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. WILL BE A SYSTEM
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THOUGH, BUT EVEN COMING IN STRONGER WOULD
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW. ONCE THIS WAVE
PASSES SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR WILL FOLLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL AND POSSIBLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. BESIDES A FEW MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS, EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page