346
FXUS63 KFSD 181745
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
ALLEVIATING THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LATE WEEK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BROUGHT ANOTHER DAY OF VERY
HIGH/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO THE AREA. WHILE MANY OF THE
FUELS HAVE BEGIN TO QUICKLY GREEN UP, THE WARM SEASON TALL
GRASSES ARE STILL LAGGING A BIT AND REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE. WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET DIMINISHING THE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LATER TONIGHT A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK BY MAINLY TO THE NORTH,
SCRAPING BY PARTS OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST MN. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING THROUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING ON THE MINIMAL SIDE. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES A
WEAK COOL FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL SAG SOUTH AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE AGAIN SUNDAY, ALBEIT A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AND
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 50 IN
SOUTHWEST MN TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
ON MONDAY FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS AND BRINGS IN A WESTERLY WARMER SHOT
OF AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW 80S
IN CENTRAL SD. ONCE AGAIN, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH
DRY AIR WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA.
A WEAK FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY DROPPING WINDS AND ALLEVIATING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY CREEPING UP TOWARDS RECORD WARM HIGHS. MOST
RECORDS ARE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ONE THING FIGHTING
REACHING THE RECORD WARM HIGHS WILL BE A SOUTH TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS WHICH USUALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE
DEEPER MIXING NEEDED TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S. HOWEVER, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA WILL BE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THIS
TIME AROUND IN DEEPENING THIS LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND
THEN JUST KIND OF LOCKING IT IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT THIS SHOULD MEAN IS ANOTHER WARM DAY THURSDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
TO 40 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EASING AROUND SUNSET. A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST MN LATER
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page