005
FXUS63 KFSD 061049
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
549 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 60 MPH WINDS WILL BE
THE GREATEST RISKS.
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60
MPH WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S TO 100 DEGREE MARK BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. THERE
REMAINS POTENTIAL OR PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK NORTHWARD.
06Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS FORM ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FARGO AREA TO
PIERRE AND ALLIANCE. THE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FROM RAPIDLY ADVANCING, WITH MORE STORM MOTION DICTATED
BY COLD POOL FORMATION. 700 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM
(+13C) ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING, SO ANY STRONG STORM
MAY STRUGGLE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE WARMER AIR AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY I-90. STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK WITH
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLOW EASTWARD TRAJECTORIES MAY DELAY
THE ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION FROM ARRIVING
UNTIL THE LATE EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN COULD LIMIT THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF
ANY STORM CLUSTERS AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A SUMMER-LIKE DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, QUIETER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
AREAS OBSERVING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED
TO A PICTURE PERFECT SUMMER AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST TODAY MAINLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING RIDGING, THIS WOULD BE A
PERFECT TIME TO HIT THE WATER PARK/POOL AND ENJOY SOMETHING COLD
LIKE ICE CREAM. OTHERWISE, THE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW
TO UPPER 60S FOR THE NIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOOKING INTO THE NEW WEEK, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY MONDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) IN PLACE AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
WEEK LEADING TO DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THE MOST
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WEST OF I-29. WHILE THIS FALLS JUST SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS! OTHERWISE, THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
USHER IN MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK LEAD TO NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. STARTING ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO NORTHEASTERN SD. AS THIS
FRONT IS INTERSECTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO IF THIS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH THE LIMITED SHEAR (15-30 KTS),
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (30%-40%) FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS, IF THIS PULSY
ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY; THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE UP TO
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS GUSTS. THE NEXT CHANCES
POTENTIALLY COME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS THE ND/SD BORDER AND IS INTERSECTED BY A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE BOUNDARY LIFTS, CONFIDENCE IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
HAS LOWER A BIT DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING BEING JUST NORTH OF US AND
LIMITED SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, WE COULD AT LEAST GET SOME
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OUT IT WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.25" TO 1.75" INCHES AND DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECT, LOCALIZED PONDING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE PROLONGED ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PLAINS LEADING TO AT LEAST
SOME SMALLER CHANCES (<30%) THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGING
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE THE RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REFLECTING SIMILAR VALUES, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR FOG HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN AREAS WHERE WE'VE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH LINGERING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO MID-DAY.
A SCATTERED DIURNAL CU FIELD IS LIKELY AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND GUST TOWARDS 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL TURN
OUR EYE TO THE NORTH AND WATCH FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 14 HAVE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS CONVECTION, SO WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 GROUP IN HURON.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYER DUE TO
NEARBY CONVECTION.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...DUX
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...DUX
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