973  
FXUS63 KFSD 192015  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
315 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
BEAUTIFUL MID-LATE APRIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY  
LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MID 50S TO 60S. THIS IS  
ALL THANKS TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND  
ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
BY SATURDAY, VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT  
RISES AND STOUT WARMING ALOFT. WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 20S C AND  
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, LOOK FOR  
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL PACKED AROUND THESE VALUES WITH THE  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER HALF.  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT SO  
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW OVER TODAYS VALUES.  
THE WARM TEMPERATURES, POTENTIAL ENHANCED MIXING, AND BREEZIER  
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR  
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE DRY ENOUGH FUEL WITH NUMEROUS BURNS INDICATED  
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT SLIDES INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT THEN GENERALLY GETS HUNG UP  
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLE CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY BUT THE LACK OF BROADER SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD KEEP  
COVERAGE LIMITED AND LIGHT. OVERALL, THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL  
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH  
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY  
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH UPPER  
50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO UPPER 70S  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: RAIN SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
INCREASE BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY AS A BETTER  
SHORTWAVE BEGINS SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SOME  
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THE BETTER SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST FOCUSED PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE  
FRONT BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HIGHER CHANCE LOWER LIKELY RANGES.  
WILL NEED TO REFINE THE EVENTUAL LOCATION AND TIMING AS THE EVENT  
NEARS THOUGH. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE THUNDER  
THREAT FADING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS INSTABILITY FADES AND THE SURFACE  
LOW SLIDE INTO IOWA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY DROP BACK INTO THE MID  
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS.  
 
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY: COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR  
FAR EAST TUESDAY BUT THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE  
BULK OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH  
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH  
A TANDEM FRONT FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN GO THRU A  
WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR TUESDAY  
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019  
 
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE ISOLATED MID LEVEL CU AND HIGH  
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KALIN  
LONG TERM...KALIN  
AVIATION...KALIN  
 
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