653
FXUS63 KFSD 091727
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1127 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS MUCH AS
15-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REGION-WIDE TODAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
- LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE WARMEST
AREAS SOUTH OF TODAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A MILD START TO THE DAY WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ALREADY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RELATIVELY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 14, WITH THICKER MID-HIGH CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT THE THICKER
CLOUDS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD WITH AN ADVANCING WAVE AND COOL FRONT
TODAY, REACHING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS PLATTE-SIOUX FALLS-JACKSON
MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING NORTH OF
THIS LINE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER
50S, BUT A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BELOW 12KFT AGL SHOULD KEEP
ANY SPRINKLES AT BAY.
EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS, WITH MUCH WARMER READINGS
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY (PICKSTOWN/FORT RANDALL
DAM TO SIOUX CITY) WHERE HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70F. LOWEST
CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES LIES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
GRADIENT WHERE FASTER CLOUD INCREASE WOULD HOLD READINGS COOLER,
BUT A SLOWER INCREASE COULD ALLOW FOR GREATER WARMING. AS THE
FORECAST STANDS NOW, SIOUX FALLS WILL BE CLOSE TO TYING THE
EXISTING RECORD HIGH OF 58F (1977). THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
BREAKING EXISTING RECORDS LOOKS TO BE FROM VERMILLION (65F IN
1996) TO SIOUX CITY (62F IN 1954), WITH A FEW OTHER COOP SITES
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18 ALSO THREATENING.
WITH THE COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH, A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD KEEP OUR WINDS IN CHECK TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS GENERALLY
REMAINING LESS THAN 25 MPH. THAT SAID, LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD STILL MIX SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
AS THE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, LEADING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 20-35 PERCENT FOR
MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TODAY. THUS STILL LOOKING AT ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER, BUT POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LOW,
20 TO LOCALLY 30% PER LATEST HREF.
COOLER BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT A BROAD WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS A 40-50%
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, THOUGH LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
HOLD ONTO DRIER AIR EVEN INTO THE EVENING, SO GREATEST CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED ON LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SNOWFLAKES, SO RAIN/SNOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL HINGE ON TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET AGL. WITH THIS IN MIND, BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA, PERHAPS AS FAR WEST/SOUTH AS BROOKINGS OR MADISON SD
TO WORTHINGTON/JACKSON MN, THOUGH EVEN THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A
20-30% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.10" LIQUID. HIGHS THURSDAY
COULD DEPEND ON HOW LATE PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS
MORE PROBABLE. NBM FORECAST HIGH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE
50TH PERCENTILE IN THIS AREA, SO NUDGED THURSDAY HIGHS CLOSER
TO THAT 50TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE A
BIT MORE MURKY, THOUGH MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BRUSHING
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 70TH-80TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR SKIES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE'RE WATCHING A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE CWA BY 00Z. MID-
LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT LOW-STRATUS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY MENTION IN THE TAF.
VFR MID-LVL CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH 3AM, WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED INTO DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST OVER
20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT, WEAKENING BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...DUX
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