620
FXUS63 KFSD 202342
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
542 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO 1.5" POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY 40 TO 60 MPH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW
RISKS, BUT EXPECT SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 TO
-45 ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO CROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT HAS BEEN WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL TO OVERCOME.
ONLY REPORTS OF SNOW THUS FAR AS OF 1PM HAVE BEEN OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM CAMS SEEM TO BE
PICKING UP ON THIS TREND, GENERALLY DELAYING THE ONSET OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS, AND LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS.
TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA BY 03Z, LEAVING ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO
AN INCH (PERHAPS VERY ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ALONG I-90 EAST
INTO MINNESOTA). A FEW CAMS INDICATE VERY LIGHT SNOW TO
FLURRIES MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AREAS AFTER 03Z,
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY REACH I-29. BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
WEDNESDAY: MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT PUSHING ANOTHER COMPACT
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS
MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE'LL SEE MULTIPLE
HAZARDS THROUGH THE DAY. FIRST BEING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TIED TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG DPVA AND FOCUSED
WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY PRODUCE A QUICK DUSTING TO
1" OF SNOW ALONG OR NORTH OF I-90. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAINS
THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
IN THE MORNING. A STRONG SPG WILL FORM BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THIS FRONT PUSHING SUSTAINED WINDS TOWARDS THE 30 MPH MARK,
HOWEVER THE STRONG LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MAKE THE MECHANICAL TRANSFER OF 50+ KNOT
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER MUCH EASIER TO PUSH TO THE
SURFACE. THE RESULT MAY BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CONSIDERED,
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THIS SHIFT TO ISSUE GIVEN ONLY
A HANDFUL OF MODELS SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY: THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF WEDNESDAY'S
FORECAST IS THE IMPACT OF THE WINDS ON WHAT SNOW MAY FALL
TODAY, BUT ALSO FALLS IN THE MORNING. MOST BLOWING SNOW TOOLS
SUGGEST THAT WE'LL BEGIN TO SOME IMPACTS WITH UP TO 1" OF NEW
DEPTH, BUT MORE HIGHER END AND WIDESPREAD IMPACTS START AT 2".
THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF TODAY'S SNOW AND THEN MODEST IMPACT OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING SNOW, AND MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL
CONVECTION LEAVES SOME DOUBT IN MY MIND ON THE OVERALL EXTEND OF
IMPACT. THAT SAID, WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS WHERE MY
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON ADDITIONAL MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AND CURRENT SNOW DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 1". MODEL VISIBILITY PROGS
DO INDICATE OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY DROPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BUT ANTICIPATING FAIRLY SCATTERED POOR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF THE
RIDGE OF SW MN AND NORTHERN IA WILL STAND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF TODAY'S SNOW CLIMBS HIGHER. WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FURTHER SOUTH. THE AREAS NEAR I-90
POSE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF BEING SWITCHED TO WINTER WEATHER
RELATED HEADLINES IF WE CAN SEE A QUICK 1-2" OF SNOW.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A 1053
MB HIGH PASSES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT MAY BRING BOTH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES, BUT ALSO 30-35 MPH
GUSTS LEADING TO ADDITIONAL BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
EXTREMELY COLD LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB BOTH SIT AT THE EDGE OF
CLIMATOLOGY CENTERED AROUND LATE JANUARY, WHICH RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO EVEN 20S BELOW ZERO. SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH ONLY REACHES CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID-DAY.
THIS RESULTS IN WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING -30 TO -45F, COLDEST
ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE VERY
SLOWLY FRIDAY, WITH DEW POINTS ALSO PLUMMETING UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AGAIN DROP SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN NATURE. THIS RESULTS IN A
HIGHLY VARIABLE WIND CHILL FORECAST, WHICH HAS MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NOT WARNING CRITERIA. MID-
LVL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS, HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. QUIET AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, EXITING THE
REGION BY 21.03-04Z, OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES IN THE
EAST. CURRENTLY, HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR, BASED ON WHERE VISIBILITY IS THE LOWEST. SNOW IS
LEADING TO IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD AT LEAST BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z, BRINING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY BLSN
FOR AREAS WITH NEW SNOW, AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT KHON AND
KFSD WHERE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXIST IN BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE SEEING GUSTS AROUND 40-45+ KNOTS. GUSTS REMAIN
STRONG INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DIRECTION WILL VARY BUT
EXPECT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ062-067-
070-071.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-065>067-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
SDZ038>040-052>055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ050-
057>061-063>066-068-069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ064-068.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ098.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ001-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ002-003.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SG
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