973
FXUS63 KFSD 192015
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
BEAUTIFUL MID-LATE APRIL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MID 50S TO 60S. THIS IS
ALL THANKS TO A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY, VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND STOUT WARMING ALOFT. WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 20S C AND
850 MB TEMPS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL PACKED AROUND THESE VALUES WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER HALF.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT SO
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW OVER TODAYS VALUES.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES, POTENTIAL ENHANCED MIXING, AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE DRY ENOUGH FUEL WITH NUMEROUS BURNS INDICATED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT SLIDES INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT THEN GENERALLY GETS HUNG UP
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLE CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY BUT THE LACK OF BROADER SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD KEEP
COVERAGE LIMITED AND LIGHT. OVERALL, THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEHAVE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH UPPER
50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: RAIN SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY AS A BETTER
SHORTWAVE BEGINS SLIDE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE THE BETTER SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FOCUSED PRECIPITATION AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT BUT BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE HIGHER CHANCE LOWER LIKELY RANGES.
WILL NEED TO REFINE THE EVENTUAL LOCATION AND TIMING AS THE EVENT
NEARS THOUGH. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE THUNDER
THREAT FADING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS INSTABILITY FADES AND THE SURFACE
LOW SLIDE INTO IOWA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY DROP BACK INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS.
TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY: COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FAR EAST TUESDAY BUT THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
BULK OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
A TANDEM FRONT FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN GO THRU A
WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR TUESDAY
AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE ISOLATED MID LEVEL CU AND HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KALIN
LONG TERM...KALIN
AVIATION...KALIN
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