093
FXUS63 KFSD 210437
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, AND SUNDAY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S!
- CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN MID-WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND
TIMING REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONABLE IN THE TEENS, 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY. TUESDAY CONTINUES
TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THANKS TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US. SOME ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER REMAINS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY DUE TO NEAR CRITICAL HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS. A FEW RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAIN
ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT, DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE ENDED THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING
TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE 20S. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY IS IN THE MID 30S. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASE AFTER 6PM CDT AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO HAVE BUMPED NBM LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN
JUST A TOUCH WITH A BLEND OF BCCONSSHORT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WITH A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ISOLATED, VERY LIGHT FLURRIES SATURDAY EVENING. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THESE FLURRIES OCCURRING OR REACHING THE GROUND
DUE TO A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. IF THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE, AND
FLURRIES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, VERY
WEAK WAA IN THEN 900-800 MB LAYER WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES A
BIT FROM TODAY, INTO THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR AREAS ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
HOWEVER SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLDER OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS,
IN THE MINUS TEENS.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH COLD HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THANKS TO A
STRONG SHOT OF CAA. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW US TO TAP INTO A 30-40 KT
LLJ BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING THEIR PEAK AROUND LATE-MORNING AT 25-30
MPH. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGNED WELL WITH THE BUFFALO RIDGE,
DOWN SLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST
GUSTS, UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS RAPIDLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE MINUS
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION MONDAY. A STRONG PUSH OF WAA WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TUESDAY A SECOND
STRONG PUSH OF WAA WILL BOOST HIGHS EVEN WARMER, IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE JUST CLIPS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL. A SECOND, STRONGER
WAVE PASSES THROUGH RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST, BRINGING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A LARGE SPREAD
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPS UNCERTAINTY HIGH. IF YOU HAVE MID-WEEK
TRAVEL PLANS, BE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST AGAIN AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S
WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS PRESENT ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A
STRAY FLURRY IS POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRATUS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
A BIT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. THUS, HAVE
CONTINUED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF ALL TAFS BUT WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEYERS
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...MEYERS
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