634
FXUS63 KFSD 151724
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1124 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE +25 TO +35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AT THE FOREFRONT TODAY, WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF A
FORESTBURG-MITCHELL-WAGNER LINE. ELSEWHERE HIGH TO LOCALLY
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
- RAIN AND SOME SNOW CHANCES (30-60%) RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
- LOW-MODERATE (30-50%) CHANCES FOR A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS/LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN, MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ANOTHER EARLY MORNING WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND ANY HOLES IN THE HIGH
CIRRUS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP MORE SHARPLY THAN EXPECTED.
HAVE CONTINUED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE ACCORDINGLY,
BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TODAY. DESPITE WEAK WARM ADVECTION, EXPECT EFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN
THE LOWEST 2-4KFT AGL, HIGHEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS
SCENARIO FAVORS THE WARMER/DRIER/BREEZIER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15
TO 20 PERCENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD, AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA OF LOWEST HUMIDITY, WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS MOST OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN OUR
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. STILL PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY AS NOTED
BELOW, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME TREND TOWARD A WETTER CONSENSUS,
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLES SHOWING 30-50% PROBABILITIES OF 24-HOUR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.10" ON THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS, AS PRECIPITATION WOULD MORE THAN
LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK LIFT IN A SOMEWHAT SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) PERSISTS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS, RAIN MAY NOT FULLY REACH THE GROUND, RESULTING IN VIRGA.
WHEN RAIN HAS REACHED THE SURFACE, REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN VERY LIGHT, AT AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. THESE LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO PART OF THE EVENING TIMEFRAME BEFORE THIS WEAK LIFT
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. THUS, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
STRENGTHENS A BIT ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO
+5C TO +11C, PLACING THESE TEMPERATURES IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, NEAR RECORD TO POSSIBLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE ON THE TABLE FOR TOMORROW. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND SOME BREEZY WINDS MAINLY WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THUS, FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THIS FIRE DANGER CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. GIVEN THE SUNSET THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY FIRE
DANGER WILL COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD, ONLY FALLING TO THE 30S TO ABOUT 40F.
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN DRY ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESIDING OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM IN THE 50S AND 60S. THINGS
BEGIN TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ALOFT AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WAA WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WAVE, PUSHING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO +5C TO +10C ALOFT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA AS WELL
WHICH CAN ALTER TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY FAVORING A HIGH TEMPERATURE
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM.
THE NBM SHOWS A 70-100% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 60F
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE
A RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, BOTH THE FIRE DANGER
THREAT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MITIGATED IF LOW LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPS. CURRENTLY, THE LREF SHOWS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER
TO EXCEED 50% ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. PROBABILITIES DROP TO ABOUT
20% ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE AS THE MAIN QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC (QG) FORCING FOR ASCENT
ARRIVES. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM, THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (60-100%
CHANCE) FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THIS SAME AREA AS WELL.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE EURO AI ENSEMBLE AS IT SHOWS A 60-80% CHANCE
EXCEEDING THE SAME AMOUNT OF LIQUID QPF ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
WITH TEMPERATURES FURTHER COOLING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THOUGH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE PASSING THROUGH WHICH WILL
WOULD ONLY BRING MINOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE OPERATIONAL EURO MODEL AS IT AMPLIFIES THE WAVE AND CLOSES OFF
THE LOW. THE ENSEMBLES ON THE OTHER HAND KEEP THE WAVE PROGRESSIVE
AND SHOW A 10-30% CHANCE FOR LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A TENTH OF
AN INCH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE DRIVEN BY THE OPERATIONAL
EURO ENSEMBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CAN HAVE
MEANINGFUL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE QUIET SIDE OF THINGS AS
BROAD TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONABLE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THIS AS THEY SHOW AT MOST A 30% CHANCE FOR FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 40F. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY STRENGTHEN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
UP TO ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED, STRONGEST WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. THESE GUSTS WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN WINDS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP,
PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS, LEAVING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM FORESTBURG TO MITCHELL TO WAGNER SD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS, WHILE A DRY PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIXING DOWN AS LOW AS 15-20 PERCENT
IN THESE AREAS. THE FAVORABLE MIXING WILL ALSO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH, PERHAPS BRIEFLY STRONGER DURING PEAK MIXING IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HIGH TO LOCALLY VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER (GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH) AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (20-30 PERCENT MINIMUM).
DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF MID-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCREASING
WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS
AND NEAR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 15: KFSD: 63/1921 KSUX: 67/1921 KHON: 66/1921 KMHE:66/1921
FEBRUARY 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE:63/2017
FEBRUARY 17: KFSD: 70/1981 KSUX: 71/1981 KHON: 67/1913 KMHE:70/1913
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011
FEBRUARY 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981
FEBRUARY 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994
ADDITIONALLY CLIMATE PERSPECTIVES INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY THE 16TH WOULD PUSH THE MEAN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURE AT SIOUX FALLS (+15 DEGREES), SIOUX CITY (+15 DEGREES),
AND HURON (+18 DEGREES) AS THE WARMEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD THROUGH
THAT DATE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-052-
053-057>059-063-064.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...JH
CLIMATE...DUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page