150
FXUS63 KFSD 221716
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1116 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY WEEK COULD
PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY
WEST OF I-29.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40%-70%) OF MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 232 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, PATCHY AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS OUT OF AREAS EAST OF I-29 THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
CLEARER SKIES. FROM HERE, ANOTHER COLD START IS AHEAD AS MOST AREAS
WAKE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND, MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP IF YOU HAVE ANY MORNING PLANS. LOOKING
INTO THE REST OF THE DAY, THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO MID 20S.
OTHERWISE, THE QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS A WARMING TREND SETS UP. THE COMBINATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITION ALONG WITH PERIODIC BREEZINESS WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PERIOD WITH THE FOCUS BEING WEST OF I-29. LASTLY, EXPECT
HIGHS TO INCREASE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 40S BY MONDAY TO THE 40S
AND UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
IT'S BEEN A CHILLY DAY OUT THERE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
ONLY TO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES WITH
ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA, AND A FEW
SPITS OF FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND DRIFTS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 10S BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. A
QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOW TEENS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUD COVER, TO THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
AND WE LOOK TO SEE LOWS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO ONLY EXPECTING WIND
CHILLS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
STILL BUNDLE UP MONDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING OUT THE DOOR TO
WORK OR SCHOOL!
MILDER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
WEST OF JAMES RIVER WHERE WE WILL BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. LOOK FOR HIGHS REACH THE 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. HIGHS
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST (25-35%), AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY,
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT,
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 30% FOR OUR AREA. THINGS GET A BIT MORE
INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER WAVES DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND WILL LOOK TO BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA. TIMING OF THIS WAVE AND THE
TEMPERATURES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ARE THE BIGGEST
QUESTION MARKS THAT RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. THE DETERMINISTIC 21.12Z GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BRINGING SOME SNOW
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THE GFS JUST HAS A STRONGER WAVE
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO POSSIBLY A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THAN THE EC. MEANWHILE, EACH OF ITS AI
COUNTERPARTS BRING THE TRACK OF SNOW FURTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING TO THE ENSEMBLES, THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS APPARENT IN THE PROBABILITIES OF
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 1 INCH, WHICH PAINTS A BROAD
20-40% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. CERTAINLY WILL BE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM TO MONITOR, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
FROM THERE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER QUICK WARM-UP AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF WARMTH WILL BE IN
QUESTION UNTIL CERTAINTY GROWS ON SNOW POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOME PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW NOT
EXPECTING ANY MVFR CEILINGS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...08
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