777
FXUS63 KFSD 232323
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BE AT THE FOREFRONT OF CONCERNS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH EACH DAY WILL POSE SOME
THREAT.
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE. PROBABILITIES
FOR MORE THAN 0.10" OF RAIN REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A FAST MOVING, VERY WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY, PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS VERY WEAK, BUT DOES EXIST. THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIGHT AND BRIEF. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT HAS LESS WEAK INSTABILITY AND A VERY
ELEVATED DGZ, SO PRECIPITATION VERY UNLIKELY. BEYOND THIS,
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT
AS WITH TODAY'S AND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, MUCH IS LACKING SO ONLY VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. NO GIVEN 24 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND INDICATES MORE THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AREA THIS
NEXT WEEK OR SO. LOCAL FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS THIS PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS FIRE
STARTS AND SPREAD ARE MORE CONCERNING THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO ABOUT 25
TO 35 PERCENT, A LITTLE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE GOOD SIDE IS
WINDS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE WITH GUSTS MORE AROUND 20 MPH. THIS
SHOULD SET UP HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH AND
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, THEY WILL STILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ABOUT
35 PERCENT VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AND
WINDS DOWN A BIT, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LOW AROUND 30
PERCENT OR SO.
DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BOUT 25 TO 35 PERCENT AND WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL AND SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF I-29.
WINDS REMAIN MARGINALLY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS ONLY AS HIGHS AS ABOUT 20
KNOTS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO VFR LEVELS TO END THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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