177
FXUS63 KFSD 181820
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
120 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, FROM
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) UNTIL
LATE WEEK.
- CONTINUED DRY, WARM, AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
QUIET WEATHER AHEAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING LIGHTER
WINDS AND A BIT COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES, MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW THE
FOG APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL MAINLY BE IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE THE BE A FAIRLY MILD DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW 15 MPH. HIGHS MOSTLY MID 60S.
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 70S. A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN TUESDAY. WITH SOME HEATING AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING FRONT, HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH AN 80 DEGREE READING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STRONGER TROUGHING DEVELOPS TO THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE
IN THE 70S.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS TROUGH
SPREADS ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE FROM THE EC/CANADIAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT ALL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EC ENSEMBLE GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE VERY MILD WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LOWS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE JUST A
TOUCH BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT FOR NOW THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING TOO COLD, SO ANTICIPATING
HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
SUNSET, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. OTHERWISE,
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page