125
FXUS63 KFSD 171742
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER.
- CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
MONDAY.
- MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LATE WEEK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY
DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, FUELS ARE STARTING TO
GREEN UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER AIDE, SO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE A CHILLY NIGHT IS AHEAD AS
WINDS AVERAGE 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DIP IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON SATURDAY WILL
PROVIDE A LITTLE RELIEF FROM WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. ALSO
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE, BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON PEAK
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND WITH A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE4 MIXED LAYER A FEW
SPRINKLES, BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW.
A WEAK WAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK LIFT
AND SATURATION TO PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. A FEW
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IMPACTS WILL BE
MINOR.
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW BUT DECREASED SPEEDS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A QUIET AND SLIGHTLY LESS COOL DAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLAWING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
MONDAY WILL REBOUND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK WARMER AIR. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLES IN TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY MILD WITH A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY.
THE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES LATE WEEK BUT
STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS VERY DIFFERENT AMONGST THE
MANY MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING BACK THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COVERAGE DEPENDENT UPON PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST MAINLY EAST OF I-29 INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THEN VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, 20 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT AND 25 TO 35 MPH ON SATURDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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