828
FXUS63 KFSD 280453
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1053 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF
THE I- 90 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS, 1-3 INCHES, WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR
AND NORTH OF A DE SMET SD TO WINDOM MN LINE. FURTHER SOUTH, A
LIGHT DUSTING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LINCOLN AND
LYON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM 3 AM TO NOON
SATURDAY. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY IF LIGHT
SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
PERIODIC LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE (RAIN, SNOW,
AND/OR MIX), HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH TONIGHT'S
SNOW BAND. WITH THE NUDGE SOUTHWARDS, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND
LYON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO NOON ON SATURDAY. THE
BAND OF SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
THIS COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AND PUSH SNOWFALL TOTALS MORE BROADLY TO 3-4
INCHES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING. ANY CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY TOMORROW EVENING, LEAVING DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN AS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AS
DUE TO A FEW MODELS CONTINUING THE NORTHERN SOLUTION, SO DIDN'T WANT
TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
WEEK BUT DIFFERENCES IN HOW MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HANDLES THE UPPER
AND LOWER LEVEL WAVES PREVENTS ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM AT THIS
TIME. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE A
MAJOR SYSTEM WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON: LOOKING ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S (HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR) TO THE 60S (HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR AS OF 2 PM. HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR OR EXCEEDING RECORDS AT A
FEW SITES IN NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN (FOR EXAMPLE, SANBORN,
SIBLEY, WORTHINGTON, WINDOM, LAKE PARK, AND SPENCER). MODEL BLENDS
HAVE STRUGGLED ALL DAY IN KEEPING UP WITH EFFICIENT MIXING, WITH
GUSTS PEAKING IN THE 40S AND DEW POINTS DROPPING TO 17 TO 25 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE WARNING AREA. DEW POINTS HAVE REGULARLY
DIPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE. HAVE EXPANDED THE
RED FLAG WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALIZED, MORE EFFICIENT MIXING.
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNSET. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: THIS EVENING, ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A TRAILING COMPACT
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THE WAVE SHOULD PROMPT
SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN SATURATION TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
NEAR AND NORTH OF A DE SMET TO WINDOM LINE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA CAN EXPECT AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG LINGERING QUESTION IS
EXACT SNOWBAND PLACEMENT AND HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE TRAVELING TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES OR FARGO THIS
WEEKEND. IT IS POSSIBLE TO GET A LIGHT (<1") DUSTING OF SNOW AS FAR
SOUTH AS CHAMBERLAIN TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE. HOWEVER THE
00Z/06Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT
OF THE SNOWBAND PLACEMENT, PUTTING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW (3-
6") ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST SD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN AND TOWARD
THE TWIN CITIES METRO. THERE ALSO REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING WHEN SNOW WILL END SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST MN. A
FEW MODELS SUGGESTING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER AS LATE AS
SATURDAY EVENING NORTHEAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE, WHERE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ASIDE FROM SNOW CREATING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS, THE OTHER MAIN STORY
WILL BE A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO SATURDAY. SITES RECEIVING 1+ INCHES
OF SNOW ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
SATURDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, HIGHS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
BUT WARMING WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON CLOUDS CLEARING.
SUNDAY: STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES
STARTING THE DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, BUT IF CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT, LOWS COULD BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
SUNDAY, BUT IMPACTS LOOK TO BE MINOR AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY: UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEST. A LEADING, ZONAL
FLOW SHORTWAVE BRINGS A LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY, COOL
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: A PROGRESSIVE COLORADO LOW EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS MID WEEK AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FRIDAY/NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING
PERIODIC, SPRING-LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD CURRENTLY
FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, A MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE RUNS MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER DAILY.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES, CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SPEED AND TIMING OF
THE WAVE (I.E., SNOW MORE LIKELY AT NIGHT).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THE BULK WILL STILL FALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY-14 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, INCLUDING KMML
AND KTKC. BUT KHON SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BEING A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS WHILE VISIBILITIES
FALL TO IFR THRESHOLDS IN FALLING SNOW. PERHAPS BRIEFLY DOWN TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES AT PEAK SNOWFALL RATES. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE BULK OF IT PUSHES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT THIS WOULD MAINLY BE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA, INCLUDING
ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
ELEVATED TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ071-072.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEYERS
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...MEYERS
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