895
FXUS63 KFSD 091840
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
140 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR TOMORROW, SUNDAY WILL ALSO SEE A CONTINUATION IN
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. HAVE ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, AND
BY THE END OF THE WEEK MAY FURTHER WARM TO THE 80S TO
POTENTIALLY LOW 90S.
- A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST CHANCE COMES
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. BOTH CHANCES HAVE A 15-30%% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE,
HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS REMAIN LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST ALONG PARTS OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED OUT,
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND GREATER MIXING. WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S , HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
MPH. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND SURFACE RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO THE 30S TO UP TO
ABOUT 40F OVERNIGHT. WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY-14
FALLING BELOW 36F, HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-14. THE ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RISE AND REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE 60S AND 70S. DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN TODAY, SO HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DEEPER MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS TO BE MIXED TO THE
SURFACE. STILL, THESE GUSTS WILL ONLY BE TO ABOUT 20-25 MPH WITH AN
ISOLATED FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. DESPITE WINDS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS, FUELS CONTINUE TO GREEN WHICH KEEPS FIRE
DANGER CAPPED AT MODERATE. THUS, ONLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
AGAIN FALLING TO THE 30S AND 40S. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF FROST ACROSS SIMILAR PARTS OF THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE TOP OF A RIDGE ON MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S AND 80S
ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL LEVELS, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
AGAIN. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO RESULT IN JUST
ENOUGH COOLING TO RESULT IN LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
LOCATIONS MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-
30%) FOR SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN US, PUTTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DRY. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO AGAIN FALL TO NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ON
WEDNESDAY, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD
KEEP ANY FIRE DANGER AT BAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN US BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE WITH
SOME OF THE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS LOW CUTTING OFF
FROM THE MEAN FLOW ENTIRELY. AS SUCH, HAVE REDUCED POPS A BIT ON
THURSDAY, NOW ONLY UP TO ABOUT A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN. HAVE LEFT
SIMILARLY LOW POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT THESE CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD
INCREASE IF THIS WAVE WAS TO TAKE A NORTHERN TRAJECTORY. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT THAT CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN
EVOLVES. IF RAIN WERE TO RETURN TO THE AREA, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE. ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BE HOT WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE 80S AND EVEN 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH THE LAST FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS JUST
PUSHING PAST THE HIGHWAY-20 CURATOR. THIS WILL LEAVE A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL BEFORE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING
TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
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