448
FXUS63 KFSD 262337
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY DRY FUELS, WARM
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. HEED
ALL BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH IS HIGH.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CAA HAVE
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM. THOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, THE STRONG
WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE
MET THIS MORNING IN SOME AREAS. AS OF 2:30 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 30S TO LOW 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AS THEY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AROUND DAYBREAK, A WEAK WAVE PASSES FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA. THIS WILL WORK TO ENHANCE WINDS GUSTS
AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE,
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MORE SUN FOR
FRIDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR KEEPS OUR HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
STRONG, SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40+ MPH. THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE STRONG, AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT QUITE REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TRENDS IN THE WIND WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES TO DETERMINE IF A HEADLINE WILL BE NECESSARY IN
THE FUTURE. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
DECREASING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
SUBSIDING AIR ALOFT AND WAA WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 20%
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL
REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. THE DETAILS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM, DRY, AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE BEGIN TO SEE A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS ARE SPARSE AT THIS TIME, SO CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THERE IS A PERIOD
THROUGH ABOUT 6-8Z WHEN A BRIEF MVFR CEILING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 3Z THEN GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 MPH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT TEETERS ON NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF A ROUGH LINE FROM HURON TO IDA GROVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 25% OR LESS. NORTH OF THAT LINE
VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, UP TO 35% IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH BUT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET IN TIME AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION FROM THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR
TWO WHERE BOTH CRITICAL WINDS AND HUMIDITY ARE MET, HAVE DECIDED
TO FOREGO ANY FIRE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM UNTIL 9 PM
CDT. REGION WIDE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN
20%. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 35-40+ MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT IN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
CLIMBING TO THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CONDITIONS ARE
RIPE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. PLEASE USE CAUTION. DO NOT THROW
CIGARETTES OUT OF CAR WINDOWS. ENSURE ANY CHAINS ARE PROPERLY STOWED
SO AS NOT TO DRAG AND CREATE SPARKS. IF WORKING IN AREAS WITH TALL
GRASS, USE CAUTION HOT EXHAUSTS DO NOT COME IN CONTACT. AND IF YOU
SEE A FIRE REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER GUSTING
AROUND 15 MPH. DEW POINTS AND THEREFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RECOVER SOMEWHAT BUT ARE STILL NEAR CRITICAL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY DEW
POINTS RECOVER MORE, BUT WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED FIRE
DANGER REMAINS HIGH TO VERY HIGH. WE MAY FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM
FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SNOW RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...08
FIRE WEATHER...AJP
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