110
FXUS63 KFSD 071718
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1118 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD TODAY.
- THURSDAY BRINGS SOME RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A
YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO TRACY LINE. AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
- COLDER BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, WITH WARMING
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: SO FAR, HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH, IF ANY, FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY FOG IN LOW
LYING AREAS, BUT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS, INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, AND GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY; NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH DRY PROFILES. SOME QUESTION ON JUST
HOW WARM WE'LL GET WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS, BUT EXPECT A MILD
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES LATE THIS
WEEK. THE FIRST MID LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY, SWEEPING NORTHEAST ACROSS KS/MO INTO IA/MN/WI BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW REMAINS OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST;
HOWEVER, INCREASING VORTICITY AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL LEAD TO SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA/MN HWY 60,
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AS FAR
WEST AS A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO TRACY LINE. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH RAIN INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO A
MIX, THEN ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL. MAY SEE SOME
PERIODS OF WINTRY MIX AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN, ALTHOUGH THIS
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE DECREASING WITH GUIDANCE COOLING PROFILES MUCH
MORE QUICKLY. WAVE STILL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE, AND WITH BANDING
POTENTIAL, COULD SEE A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, INCREASED POPS FROM THE NBM THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING, GOING WITH HOURLIES AND ADDING IN SOME
CONSSHORT/HREF TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED QUICK CHANGE OVER, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN
COOL, SO EXPECT SOME CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS.
FOR FRIDAY, MAY SEE SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 850:700 MB.
QUICK FLIP TO WESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, AND MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 30S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MEANDERS EAST, WITH
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS ND AND INTO MN, WHICH WRAPS UP TO THE
EAST OF OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO TIMING/TRACK
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
RELATIVELY BUT SEASONALLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S THANKS TO CAA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH (HIGHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD). CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF QUICK
MOVING WAVES SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON ANY
DETAILS REGARDING PRECIPITATION, BUT GENERALLY LOW (40% OR LESS)
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM CURRENT ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ABOUT THE SAME TIME
AS THE WINDS SHIFT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
IOWA WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF
THEM IMPACTING KSUX WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...AJP
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