036
FXUS63 KFSD 251957
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY EXITING
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT, A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED BOTH DAYS.
- A COOL DOWN AND MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IS IN STORE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, AND IS EXPECTED
TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO A A TENTH OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED
DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES. FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY AFTER DAY
BREAK.
THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS 25-30 MPH WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. TO THE
EAST, GUSTS WILL BE LIGHTER BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN
WARMER THANKS TO A STRONG PUSH OF WAA. GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE 850
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER
COUNTIES. TAKING A LOOK ALOFT A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH AXIS THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SPG, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING 25-35 MPH. WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
BUT REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, WITH GUST OF 15-20 MPH.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR BOTH THESE DAYS IS THE HIGH TO VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
WINDS COULD AID IN RAPID FIRE GROWTH THROUGH CURED FUELS. PLEASE USE
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF LONGER GRASS LIKE DITCHES OR DENSE
FIELD STUBBLE. SHOULD A FIRE START, REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY.
WITH THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COMES A STRONG PUSH OF CAA. THIS
WILL BRING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, A SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITH IN THE LARGER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER MAY
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM. SNOW
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. MANY DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT A AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN AVERAGE IN THE 20S. BUT DON'T FRET,
WE BEGIN A WARMING TREND AGAIN MONDAY THAT CONTINUES THROUGH MID
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE
MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT FOR UNDER SNOW SHOWERS WHERE THEY MAY DECREASE TO
MVFR OR BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES. KFSD AND AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, KSUX MAY ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS. FOG
BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
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