181
FXUS63 KFSD 081139
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
539 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD, AS MUCH AS 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS
WEST OF I-29 TODAY AND REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON MONDAY.
- LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE WARMEST
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 MONDAY MAY AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
TODAY-MONDAY: NEAR-TERM CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO WORK SOUTHWARD IN AREAS NEAR TO WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HREF SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT LOW STRATUS APPROACHING ABERDEEN, AND INDICATES THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH HURON-MITCHELL AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE THINNING/RETREATING NORTH AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL IS LESS CERTAIN, BUT IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED WEST OF
THE STRATUS FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE. IF STRATUS
EXPANDS AS ANTICIPATED, THIS COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, BUT SUNSHINE
AND A LIGHT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WOULD STILL
SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50 IN AREAS FROM HURON/MITCHELL, SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY. COOLER BUT STILL MILD HIGHS
IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE, WITH A MODERATE-HIGH
(60-90%) PROBABILITY OF HIGHS TOPPING 60F IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, INCLUDING GREGORY AND PORTIONS OF CHARLES MIX COUNTIES.
THE WEDGE OF WARM AIR EXPANDS EAST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE COULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. WHILE THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH (>80%)
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS TOPPING 50F IN AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90
ON MONDAY, THIS PROBABILITY DROPS TO LESS THAN 50% THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. IN CONTRAST, OUR SOUTHERN AREAS HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
NEW RECORD HIGHS, WITH A MODERATE-HIGH (60-80%) PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 60F FROM AROUND PICKSTOWN/FORT RANDALL DAM THROUGH
THE SIOUX CITY AREA. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS LOW AS 25-40% IN
THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE GUSTING 20-25 MPH
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF
I-90.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: A COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL DAY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
BAY. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING/TRACK OF A MID-WEEK WAVE WHICH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS THE BROAD
LOW-MODERATE (30-50%) CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE LARGELY DRIVEN BY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
THE EC ENSEMBLE. HOWEVER, CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS SUPPORT FOR
THE EC CHANCES IN JUST UNDER 50% OF GEFS MEMBERS AND BETTER THAN
70% OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CLUSTERS WHICH DEPICT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, SO NBM HIGHS FOR
THURSDAY MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR,
BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A RAIN/SNOW SYSTEM WITH LITTLE
INDICATION THAT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE A CONCERN. IN ANY
CASE, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS
THAN 50% PROBABILITY THAT (LIQUID) PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS
24 HOUR PERIOD WILL EXCEED 0.10".
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH THE JET STREAM DOES TRANSITION TOWARD
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK, NOT SEEING ANY SIGNS OF
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
850MB ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 1/3 TO
1/2 OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-FEBRUARY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY IS LOW, WITH MODELS
SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF SPLIT FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AREA OF LOW MVFR-IFR STRATUS EXPANDING SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THIS COULD IMPACT
KHON THROUGH 18-20Z, AND PERHAPS KMHE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.
THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
INTO KFSD/KSUX, WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page