866
FXUS63 KFSD 221137
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
637 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 40 MPH THROUGH
DAYBREAK WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS TAPER DOWN THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S THIS MORNING.
- A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES AND WIND IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK, INCREASING FIRE DANGER. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE EVENING
UPDATE. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL NOW INTO THE 30S AND 40S
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS FOR
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES, NOTED A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SITES REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN LIMITED BY THE DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. CAMS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SPRINKLES INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING
WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE UPPER JET MOVING SOUTH, BUT WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE. NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: NEAR TO RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE 80S.
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS ALREADY SAW THEIR FIRST 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
OF THE YEAR ON FRIDAY, BUT OTHERS WILL SEE THESE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THIS WILL MARK SOME OF THE EARLIEST 80 AND 90 DEGREE HIGHS ON
RECORD. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A BIT OF A LULL OR
DROP IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, WE ARE
SEEING SOME MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA, PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY MID- AFTERNOON AND THEN NW IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS MAY BE A TAD LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED,
BUT DANGEROUSLY LOW RH CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER RISKS WITH RAPID
SPREAD INCREASED.
TONIGHT: 12Z HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT, STEADILY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, BUT THE TRUE SURGE OF 925:850 CAA
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS COLD AIR,
INDUCING STEEP SURFACE TO 900MB LAPSE RATES, WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WINDS ARRIVE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 BY 9-10PM, I-90
BY 11PM, AND HIGHWAY 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MANUALLY INCREASED
GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND POTENTIAL. AT
THIS POINT, THE BREVITY OF THE HIGHER GUSTS DOES NOT REQUIRE A
WIND ADVISORY. AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY/EVENING, ANYONE THAT
BUILDS A BACKYARD FIRE SHOULD MAKE SURE THESE ARE EXTINGUISHED
AS THEY COULD PROVIDE EASY SPARKS FOR FIRE STARTS. FURTHER
BEHIND THE FRONT, WEAK 700:500 VORTICITY TRAVELING THROUGH THE
WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW COULD LEAD TO SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS I- 90 BY SUNRISE.
SUNDAY: SUNDAY MORNING WE COMPLETE THE CIRCLE OF SEASONS BACK TO
WINTER AS WIND CHILLS FALL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT'S NOW LATE MARCH AND AS WINDS TURN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S.
MONDAY: AS WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST WEEK, MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN QUIET AS THE MID-LVL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY EARLY IN THE WEEK, IT IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AS THE
WEEK MOVES FORWARD. BY MONDAY, WE'LL AGAIN SEE THE RETURN OF
LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL ALLOW A TONGUE OF MOISTURE TO
DRIFT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS MEAGER MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED
WITH WEAK TO MODEST LIFT COULD RESULT IN A FEW SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS MOVING SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ONLY
AROUND 50 J/KG MUCAPE MOVING THROUGH, SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING OVER 25-30 MPH AT TIMES WEST OF I-90. RH
VALUES HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-30 PERCENT RANGE WHICH
WILL LOWER FIRE DANGER SLIGHTLY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: THAT SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY, PUSHING WARMER LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY,
ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SURGE NORTHWARD AND KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY
BOTH DAYS. TUESDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE INCREASED FIRE DANGER, AS
INCREASING LOW-LVL FLOW OFF THE WESTERN PLAINS INCREASES TO 40
KNOTS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEW POINT/RH DROPS THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM
WOULD SUGGEST. IF WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THAT
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY,
THROUGH TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY RISE EVEN FURTHER AS THE
FEEDBACK FROM DRY SPRING GROUND AND INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE
INCREASES. CURRENT PROJECTIONS PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH WEAKER LOW-LVL FLOW REDUCING
GENERAL FIRE DANGER RISKS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MID-LVL FLOW FLATTENS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALLOWING A VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, BRINGING BOTH NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK BUT ALSO
STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE QUITE A BIT OF AVERAGING IS TAKING PLACE,
LREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A 50% PROBABILITY OF 30+ MPH WIND GUSTS WITH
A 5% PROBABILITY OF NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THURSDAY. WITH
LOWERING AFTERNOON RH AND CONTINUATION OF GUSTS, THIS RAISES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN VERY HIGH
GFDI FORECASTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
TO REMAIN LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND FRONT REMAIN LOW PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE, BUT MOSTLY THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES ONLY POINT TO A 20% PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A MIX OF MVFR, IFR, AND PATCHY LIFR STRATUS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHEN CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
TO LOWER VFR. ONCE CEILINGS LIFT, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TODAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND GUSTS TAPER DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LAT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
ISOLATED SPRINKLES, FLURRIES, OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO LATE
MORNING, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND NO IMPACTS EXPECTED
CONTINUED TO OMIT MENTION.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SG
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