035
FXUS63 KFSD 040157
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
857 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18.
- AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY, COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FROST OR
NEAR- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE FORECAST TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK
TO INCREASE NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14
CORRIDOR OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. GUSTS IN THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL PUSH
TOWARDS 25 MPH, LOCALLY TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS MONDAY, TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
INCREASE IN WINDS ON MONDAY, THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST WEST OF I-29.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOME MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS SPRINKLES, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT
IN THE DGZ TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
AND WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA, A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THE DRY AIR, SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
COULD MIX DOWN A 40 MPH GUST, WHILE A THUNDERSHOWER, IF ONE
DEVELOPS, COULD BRING DOWN A VERY ISOLATED 50 MPH GUST TO THE
SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING. SOME VERY LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE SOME OF THE
WARM SEASON GRASSES REMAIN FAIRLY CURED.
A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SETTLE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL INITIALLY TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT,
BEFORE TURNING NORTH ON MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL
BE A DRY FRONT, BUT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SHOWER. OTHERWISE, IN THE
AFTERNOON IN MAINLY NORTHWEST IA SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED. AS WITH LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS.
THE MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS INCOMING FRONT WILL BE COOLER, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
50S, WITH MORNING LOWS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE
30S. AREAS NORTH OF I-90 COULD SEE SOME FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ALL 3 MORNINGS WHILE AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WILL
SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO THE
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF WE CAN GET A FEW WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
LACKING. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND DO CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT FOR THESE
WEAK WAVES SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
PRETTY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE COURSE OF MONDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO LOCALLY 35 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST WEST OF I-29. A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LASTLY, LLWS CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-90 AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO KICK IN
TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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