482
FXUS63 KFSD 132335
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
535 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
- MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (40%-60%) WILL RETURN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE WOULD PRODUCE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF
35-50 MPH WITH FALLING SNOW COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
CONCERNS ON FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLDER WIND CHILLS BY
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A MILD AND BREEZY DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN PROGRESSING OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE. WHILE WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHIFTING GEARS HERE, MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TODAY. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, ELEVATED RH VALUES IN
THE 40%-60% RANGE SHOULD TAPER THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE START THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NONETHELESS, MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
COULD CREATE A SPARK AS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP IT
SPREAD QUICKLY. LASTLY, AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND TODAY'S COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW DOUBLE DIGITS TO MID 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIBBON OF INCREASING DPVA WORKS IT WAY ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED AT BEST. MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO
THE REGION. LOOKING ALOFT, AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE ANY RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO UPPER 40S COULD
LEAD TO A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BEFORE THINGS FULLY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE THIS INTERMITTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FALLING PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS IN MIND, TEMPORARY
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED SO MAKE SURE TO DRIVE TO
THE CONDITIONS! OTHERWISE, WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE
ON THURSDAY AND 40-55 MPH RANGE BY FRIDAY; THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
NEXT PERIODS TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WIND HEADLINES SO MAKE SURE TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING YOUR LOCAL FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY
TRAVEL PLANS.
SATURDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO SATURDAY AS A SECOND COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH. THIS COMBINED WITH BREEZIER
CONDITIONS THANKS TO A TIGHTENING SPG WILL LEAD TO EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS BY SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST VALUES (-10 TO -20 DEGREES)
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. OTHERWISE, WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK; THE "WAVE
TRAIN" WILL CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PROGRESS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PROMOTING SMALL (<20%) BUT NOT ZERO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. LASTLY, NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD WITH HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 30S THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE DOWN MVFR AND A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES
TO RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS CLOUDS PUSH SOUTH NEAR
DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND VFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
25-28 KTS. NEAR SUNRISE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND BEGIN TO DECREASE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
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