255
FXUS63 KFSD 111748
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FIRE DANGER RISK: NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED AGRICULTURAL FIRE
DANGER RISK IN NW IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
- EXTREME TEMPERATURE RANGES MONDAY: A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A SHARP CONTRACT IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY. 50S ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR HURON, WHILE THE 80S WILL BE LIKELY NEAR SIOUX
CITY/STORM LAKE.
- DRY MID-WEEK WITH RAIN RETURNING THURSDAY: NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN BY THURSDAY WITH A 60% PROBABILITY OF GREATER
THAN 0.10" OF RAIN BY FRIDAY.
- TURNING COLDER: TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND FALL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE 80S. FURTHER WEST HOWEVER, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED FROM GREGORY TO NEAR HURON AND NORTH OF
WATERTOWN. NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE DOING WHAT THEY LIKE TO
DO AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATUS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT WILL STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY INTO LATE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SLIDING A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL
SHORT OF RECORDS IN MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN
25 MPH IN NW IOWA COULD PROMOTE ELEVATED AGRICULTURAL RELATED FIRE
RISKS TO SUNSET.
TONIGHT: MY CONFIDENCE IS RISING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SLIPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH JUST HOW FAR
SOUTHEAST IS STILL IN QUESTION. SHOULD THE FRONT REACH INTO NW IOWA
AND NE NEBRASKA, THEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLER AIR MAY DRAIN
SOUTHEAST KNOCKING TEMPERATURES FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. ANTICIPATING STRATUS TO REFORM LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS FROM GREGORY TO BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL WHERE COOL AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAIN.
MONDAY: WE'RE LIKELY TO START THE DAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IN
THE CWA, POTENTIALLY AS FAR SE AS SIOUX FALLS. A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MID-MORNING TO MID-DAY WILL ACCOMPLISH
TWO TASKS, LIFTING THE COLD FRONT VERY SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWEST, BUT
ALSO PINNING IN COOLER AND MOIST AIR IN THE DRAINAGE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THE END RESULT MAY BE AN EXTREME TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF THE 80S IN SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE/SPENCER, TO THE 50S
IN HURON. LATEST NBM WILL NOT CATCH THESE MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED AND BLENDED IN HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT MAY STILL BE MORE DEFINED THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS. WHILE MOISTURE IS LACKING ALOFT, A FEW
SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SODAK IN THE DAY. HAVE ALSO MANUALLY PUSHED UP STRATUS
THROUGH MID-DAY WEST OF I-29.
MONDAY NIGHT: NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO TUESDAY AS QUITE A BIT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHEAST
THIS WILL PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH
SOME QUESTIONS ON CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL LINGERING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
AMPLITUDE OF MID-LVL RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY CUT OFF ENERGY IN THE FOUR
CORNERS FROM MOVING EASTWARD AS QUICK AS GUIDANCE HINTED YESTERDAY.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: THE CUTOFF ENERGY IN THE FOUR CORNERS MAY
EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH MID-LVL DPVA MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED RAIN BY THURSDAY. LATEST
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH
60-70% PROBABILITIES OF >0.10", BUT ONLY 30% PROBABILITIES OF MORE
THAN 0.50". HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE DAYS MAY COOL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND
DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVEL FROM WAGNER THROUGH MITCHELL AND UP
TO BROOKINGS AROUND 7Z. WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA INCLUDING KHON
MAY DROP FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 11Z. LOW STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT FRONTAL TIMING IS LOW BUT WILL
CHANGE PREVAILING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY,
ANTICIPATING VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
TRANSITION.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX/RAFALSKI
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