143  
FXUS63 KFSD 101706  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1206 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
A SOMEWHAT MILD, BUT RELATIVELY PLEASANT START TO THE DAY. SKIES  
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS  
ARE LIGHT, WITH ANY PREVAILING DIRECTION BEING SOUTHEASTERLY.  
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING, MAINLY  
IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-29, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE NOTICEABLE BREEZES TO  
THE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER (THANKS TO A SUBTLY TIGHTER SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A COUPLE OF KNOTS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MIXING  
TO THE SURFACE). CLOUD COVER WILL BE SPARSE AS MOISTURE THROUGH  
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LACKING. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID  
80S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER  
90S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY.  
 
RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD, WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING A BIT  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE  
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT. A SUBTLE WAVE/VORT MAX PAIRED WITH  
AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS (F-GEN) SLIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG  
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ACROSS  
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BROADER SCALE MODELS  
GENERALLY AGREE IN FOCUSING THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ACROSS  
SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA, BUT DISAGREE ON THE WESTWARD  
EXTENT. VARIANCE IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, WITH MOST  
FOCUSING PRECIP IN THE EAST BUT DIFFERING ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT  
AND TIMING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF VORTICITY ACROSS NORTHERN  
NE; HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH  
AND DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTIONABLE POPS ALONG THE SD/NE  
BORDER. REGARDLESS, INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW, AROUND 500 J/KG OR  
LESS OF CAPE, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN  
THUNDERSTORMS (ALTHOUGH ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE CERTAINLY  
POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH WAA, AND DID  
BUMP UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO (MAINLY EAST OF I-29) AS MODELS  
INDICATE A LOCALIZED STRONGER PUSH OF WAA, AND EXPECT IT TO BE  
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND ANY POTENTIAL  
PRECIPITATION. LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODELS THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING  
INDICATE A SECONDARY WAVE/VORT MAX AND AREA OF F-GEN, ALTHOUGH  
THIS ONE MAY SWING THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY. COULD SEE AT LEAST  
ONE MORE WAVE GRAZE OUR SOUTHWESTERN MN COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT. LIMITED POPS THOUGH TO MOSTLY BELOW MENTION THROUGH  
THURSDAY EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWESTERN MN/NORTHWESTERN IA, WHERE  
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT WITH THE NEXT VORT MAX.  
 
WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.  
THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY LACK OF PRECIP AND DRYING FUELS LEADS  
TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BOUNDARY  
REMAINING IN PLACE KEEPS A WIDE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE  
AREA, IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN SOUTHWESTERN MN TO THE  
MID/UPPER 90S THROUGH THE MO VALLEY. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME AREAS  
APPROACH 100 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY  
THE 925MB BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW EFFICIENT MIXING IS.  
 
RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE  
GRIPS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH  
FRIDAY SHOVED OUT OF THE WAY BY 850MB LOW LATE FRIDAY AND SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK/START OF THE  
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, THIS PATTERN ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED  
RIDGE RIDER WAVES TO SWING THROUGH, WITH MODELS AGREEING ON THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL WAVES, BUT REMAIN  
FUZZY ON THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM NEAR  
80 TO THE MID/UPPER 90S. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH SHOWER  
AND STORM CHANCES RELYING ON THE TIMING OF WAVES AND MOISTURE.  
INSTABILITY OVERALL REMAINS LACKING, SO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES  
REMAIN VERY LOW.  
 
ENSEMBLE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST  
POTENTIAL FOR 0.10" OR MORE OF RAIN IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD NORTH  
AND EAST OF SIOUX FALLS, WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINING MUCH  
MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT A FEW FOLKS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN MN COUNTIES  
MAY POSSIBLY SEE SOME RAIN. PROBABILITIES FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND,  
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP (I.E. 0.01" OR MORE) IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD  
THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN VERY LOW, WITH FOLKS ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL SD AND THE MO VALLEY TOWARD SIOUX CITY, IA LIKELY MISSING  
OUT. AS WITH THURSDAY, WILL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY  
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL SD INTO THE MO VALLEY.  
 
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BECOMES VERY  
CONVOLUTED, AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRAJECTORY OF ADDITIONAL, MORE  
ROBUST WAVES BOTH ACROSS THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE LOW PRESSURE  
PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO POSSIBLY  
JUST BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT  
WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHTER WINDS PREVAILING  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN  
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SG  
LONG TERM...SG  
AVIATION...BP  
 
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