068
FXUS63 KFSD 051128
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
528 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAY WITH MOST SITES SITTING BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY
MONDAY WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40%-60%) OF A FEW 60S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
- WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD, A FEW NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE SET BY MONDAY MAINLY AT SIOUX FALLS, SIOUX
CITY, AND MITCHELL.
- WHILE MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NEW WEEK,
A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE EARLY WEEK COULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20%-40%) RETURNING BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: A MILDER DAY AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA,
THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES GRADUALLY PROGRESS OUT OF OUR AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MN CONTINUE TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW HANGING
CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW LIGHT RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA,
ANY DEVELOPING FLURRIES ARE HAVING TO FIGHT THROUGH POCKETS OF DRY
AIR ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS LEADING TO LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. FROM
HERE, WE SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
LEAVING BEHIND JUST UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS. OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS
PEAKING MAINLY IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. WITH NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOWING SOME LOWER CHANCES (30%-40%) FOR A FEW 60S ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL SD, DECIDED TO KEEP TRENDING HIGHS TOWARDS THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE PASSING WARM FRONT AND
DECREASING CLOUD COVER. LASTLY, THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE WEEKEND: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LEADING TO A RETURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS BETWEEN FRIDAY
MORNING AND NIGHT WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE
OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL TAKE A TEMPORARILY DIP INTO
THE 30S AND 40S BY FRIDAY; BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER TO THE 40S
AND 50S BY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIDGING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE A FEW WAVES WAVES WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS, LIMIT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LASTLY, A TIGHTENING SPG WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC BREEZINESS ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
RETURN ALOFT BY MONDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
LINGERING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE DAY. WITH THE NBM PROBABILITIES
CONTINUING TO SHOW MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40%-60%) IN EXCEEDING THE
58 DEGREE MARK, WE COULD VERY WELL SEE A FEW NEW RECORD HIGHS AT
SIOUX FALLS (58|1977), SIOUX CITY (62|1954), AND MITCHELL (58|1977).
FROM HERE, A SERIES OF WAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30%-40%), LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF A SOLUTION. AS A RESULT, DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE DEFAULT NBM POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. NONETHELESS, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SIT IN THE 30S TO 40S EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MULTIPLE P-TYPES
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR
LOCAL FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY UPCOMING TRAVEL PLANS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE AN
ADDITIONAL LAYER MVFR STRATUS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING LLJ COULD LEAD TO LLWS AT
TIMES AT ALL TAF SITES. LASTLY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING PROMOTING GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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