476
FXUS63 KFSD 010056
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
756 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
LOSS OF HEATING HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SLACKEN EARLY THIS EVENING,
AND THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BOTH
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 424 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE SCATTERED SPRINKLES HAVE RESULTED
IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS OF 4 PM. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40+ MPH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
BEHAVIOR THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD SUNSET. HAVE EXPANDED
THE RED FLAG WARNING TO COVER THE MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING HURON AND MITCHELL, THROUGH 7 PM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE'VE REACHED PEAK HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION OVER MINNESOTA, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 29.
TONIGHT: GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, BUT I'D STILL EXPECT VERY
CONSISTENT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT, AND A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BUFFALO RIDGE. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MIXING, BUT TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 40S.
THURSDAY: CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. A RATHER CHILLY DAY
OVERALL AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY BUT WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY: FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, A FLY A
OINTMENT WILL BE THE ADVANCEMENT OF WHAT COULD BE AN BROKEN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, HAVE TRENDED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY: THE DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE DRY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 AGAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
BRINGING UPPER TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHERE THE GFS IS NEARLY DRY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE, GIVEN ENSEMBLES INCLUDED, REMAINS DRY. A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY HOWEVER THIS WAVE SHOULD FOCUS ANY RISK
OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY, BREEZY, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINS TO ARRIVE AS WE START NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN COOLER AND IN THE 50S, BUT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY JUMP
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL PERSPECTIVES AND
COMPARISONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN CLIMB A BIT WARMER
THAN POPULATED GUIDANCE. THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO ONGOING DROUGHT AND FURTHER
ENHANCING OF THE FIRE DANGER RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2020
STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH, AND EXPECT
TO LOSE MOST OF THE GUSTINESS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET.
WILL SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 25KT DEVELOP AGAIN BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW LEVELS SEEN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE REGION.
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO WORK INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF KBKX-KSLB
LINE, INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHWEST MN AND THE IOWA GREAT LAKES
REGION, LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THESE AREAS COULD
ALSO SEE SPOTTY SPRINKLES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...DUX
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