743
FXUS63 KFSD 291938
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
238 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 18 WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
- GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG. BE PREPARED TO ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME
DURING YOUR WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IF FOG DEVELOPS.
- A MOISTURE RICH STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A TIGHT RAINFALL GRADIENT WILL BE IN
PLACE, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR MAY STILL SEE ONE
HALF TO ONE WHOLE INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH
IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA IF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHIFT NORTH.
- EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 29.1930Z SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF WARM
ADVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HWY
18 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHWEST IA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITH MOST AREAS DRYING OUT BY 00Z. THAT SAID, SOME CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPING ALONG A TRAILING
SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM LINE. AREA
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS/ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD
INTO NORTHWEST IA. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. SOME
CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S, WHEREAS TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSER TO
60 DEGREES FOR AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST IA.
IN ADDITION, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. GIVEN WEAK
NEAR SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RAIN
TODAY, COULD SEE RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT IF THE BROADER CLOUD
SHIELD DISSIPATES OR MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONG FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, AND WITH IT WILL BE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE POLO. THIS IS A VERY WET SYSTEM FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WITH
NAEFS PWATS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, OUR SOUTHERNMOST
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP ACROSS NE/IA. 00/06Z MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT
AND NOW THE 12Z SUITE THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL,
RANGING FROM AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH TO HIGHER THAN 2-3 INCHES.
AREAS NORTH OF U.S. HWY 18 WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. CURRENT
TRENDS SUGGEST OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE LOWER END, BUT
GIVEN SOME LINGERING CONCERN ABOUT A LATE MODEL SHIFT NORTH,
WILL KEEP CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND ADJUST AS NEEDED ON
LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST IA,
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH MUCH NEEDED DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO
USHER IN COOLER AIR, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES THURS/FRI MAINLY IN
THE 60S. AS LONG AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
I-90. SYNOPTIC 500 HPA FLOW BEGINS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN THE MAJOR
MODELS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE CONSENSUS NOW IS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHILE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KHON/KFSD, LOW MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AND THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS CLEAR OR DON'T CLEAR LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL DETERMINE FUTURE FOG POTENTIAL. IF
CLOUDS CLEAR, THERE COULD BE RAPID FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN WEAK
NEAR SURFACE FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN. IF
CLOUDS HOLD, FOG MAY BE MORE PATCHY WITH LESS REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP KHON FOG FREE AND KEEP MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFSD OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
CLOSELY.
AT KSUX, RAIN SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA GIVEN UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE, BUT SIMILAR
TO KHON/KFSD, OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
OVERALL CLOUD COVER. WILL MAINTAIN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST, NOTING MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ014-021-022-031-032.
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ014.
DISCUSSION...ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS
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