986
FXUS63 KFSD 141828
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
128 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY TRY TO DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH TRENDS
FAVOR HIGHER RISKS TO THE SOUTH.
- HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG HIGHWAY 20,
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY'S RISK COULD BRING A LOW SEVERE
WEATHER RISK BY THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT ENOUGH OF THE
WARM SECTOR AS THE PREVALENCE OF A PERSISTENT 40 KNOT LLJ THROUGH
THE CWA MAY JUST BE TOO STRONG TO OVERCOME. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
MUCH LOWER SURFACE BASED STORM THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THERE
MAY STILL BE NARROW WINDOW, BUT FEEL THIS MAY END UP CLOSER TO I-80
THAN HIGHWAY 20. FURTHER WEST, A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES IT'S
TREK SOUTHEAST. CLEARING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TOWARDS
CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM SHOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES EAST.
TONIGHT: WHILE STRONGER SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY JUST BE SOUTH OF
THE CWA, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR A LOWER PROBABILITY ELEVATED STORM
RISK LATE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 04Z, WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WHEN LIFTED OFF
THE 850:800 MB LAYER EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN REASONABLE SHEAR
AT THAT TIME, AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT, WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY,
WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER LEADING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AROUND 70
DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY: MID-LVL FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING MODEST RETURN FLOW TO PUSH LOW-LVL MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. WHILE LIFT ITSELF LOOKS WEAK, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR LOWER STRATUS WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURE CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A SIMILAR SETUP CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY WITH BROAD
BUT WEAK WARM ADVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON
THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF A STALLED
WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. WITH LOW-LVL
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY, WE MAY SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE MID-UPR 70S. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
HERE IS THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND AND CLOUD
COVER, WHICH COULD LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INSTEAD.
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INDUCING STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND A SHARPENING OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE NOCTURNAL LLJ SHOULD
INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY, A WARM FRONT MAY SURGE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BY MID-DAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB
INTO THE 80S. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT
THAT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD SPARK A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THOUGH THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR, DURATION OF MORNING
STRATUS, ALWAYS MAKE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS TIME OF YEAR MORE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: A STRONGER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS FOR THE
WEEKEND WHICH FAVORS LOWERING TEMPERATURES AND MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WILL REMAIN LOW NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
EXPECTED SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
MID-AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRATUS WITH IT. THE LONGEVITY OF
THIS STRATUS REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT FEEL IT MAY SINK INTO NW
IOWA FAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING BUT PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF I-90 AND TOWARDS HIGHWAY 20 AFTER DARK.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, SO WILL INDICATE WITH A PROB30
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH HIGHWAY 20 AFTER DARK,
AND AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, COULD LEAD TO LINGERING
STRATUS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INDICATE
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS, BUT WILL HINT AT POTENTIAL WITH SCT025
CEILINGS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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