110
FXUS63 KFSD 031831
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
131 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
ELEVATED, POST FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. TIMING APPEARS TO SUPPORT
THE BETTER CHANCES FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR ANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. ASSUMING THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND
800-700MB BEHIND THE FRONT, ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE IS EXPECTED
WITH ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS MAY SUPPORT HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WITH DCAPE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG SOME
STRONGER GUSTS OF 65 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OF NOTE IS THAT THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS AROUND 14000 FEET WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
A BIT.
TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LINGER, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-90. AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE VERY HIGH, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS SHOULD GET 0.10" TO 0.25". THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES
AS WELL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY THE MISSOURI RIVER. WITH
CLOUD COVER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM 75 TO 80 NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90 TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
A WARMING TREND WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO9 THE 80S
ON THURSDAY, THEN MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
QUESTION MARKS FOR SUNDAY AS A WAVE COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. WHILE THERE IS NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME,
EACH OF THE MODELS GENERATES WEAK WAVES, WITH LITTLE TO NO AGREEMENT
ON WHEN. SO, AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
BRIEF PERIODS WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AFTER ABOUT 3Z THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THEY PROGRESS EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT THE STRENGTH SHOULD WANE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
SOUTH OF I-90. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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