165
FXUS63 KFSD 102330
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANY IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNCERTAIN RISK FOR SNOW
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE
NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK MAY BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER TO THE REGION. A LATE WEEK SHIFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIND TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY, BUT
STILL MAINLY NEAR NORMAL, LOWS TONIGHT WITH A QUICK REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS WARMING ALOFT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TRIES TO
BUILD TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL CREATE A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION
WHICH WILL NOT BE FULLY OVERCOME, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 30S
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST AS WELL AS AREAS OF EASTERN
SD WITH SNOW COVER, WITH 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29 THAT DO
NOT HAVE SNOW COVER. THIS INVERSION MAY HELP KEEP WINDS DOWN A BIT
AS THERE ARE SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, BUT FOR NOW EXPECTING GUSTS
TO MAINLY BE AROUND 20-25 MPH.
A WAVE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY, FURTHER ENHANCING WESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MIXING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MILD MORNING LOWS IN
THE 20S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM ABOUT 45 TO 55, WARMEST IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD.
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER MILD DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS LIKELY
AROUND 35 MPH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD, POSSIBLY RECORD
BREAKING WARM, AND HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH MEANS MORE
WIND AND UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES, THE UP BEING THURSDAY WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WAVE IS THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION,
BUT FOR NOW THOSE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. THE EXCEPTION BEING AREAS AT ELEVATION
AND ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA, WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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