902
FXUS63 KFSD 151156
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
556 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE WOULD PRODUCE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45-55 MPH
WITH ANY FALLING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TODAY-THIS EVENING: EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
REBOUND AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. TODAY WILL END UP BEING THE WARMEST OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S EAST
TO UPPER 40S WEST. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD RESIDE TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS 40 TO 50+ MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOON-MIDNIGHT TO COVER
THIS INITIAL UPTICK IN WINDS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM ADVECTION, DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT AGL WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. CANNOT
RULE OUT SPOTTY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES (SOME OF WHICH MAY FREEZE ON
CONTACT). HOWEVER, MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LATE TONIGHT-FRIDAY: THIS REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE GOING FORECAST
REMAIN ON TRACK. LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH BY LATER AFTERNOON-EVENING AND WILL BRING
THE INITIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE
STRONGER WAVE AND PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
DEEPER MIXING, WITH POCKETS OF 50+KT WINDS AT 850MB AND EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST BRIEF
GUSTS REACHING 60+MPH. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER AS MORE FAVORED TO SEE THESE STRONGER GUSTS,
WITH MODERATE (40-60%) PROBABILITIES OF 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING
50KT, HIGHEST IN GREGORY COUNTY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES, OPTED TO LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN
PLACE FOR NOW, MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THE WARNING-LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND.
THAT SAID, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-29 CORRIDOR FRIDAY,
FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER IMPACTS WOULD RESULT FROM THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND NARROW SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CENTERED ON
WHERE THESE NARROW SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP, AND WHETHER THEY
PERSIST OVER NARROW ZONES OR BE TRANSIENT (I.E. WILL WE SEE
NARROW BANDS OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW OR BROADER COVERAGE OF LESS
THAN AN INCH).
ULTIMATELY FEEL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BETTER COVER
THE IMPACTS OF BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ATOP
BARE GROUND, DECIDED TO GIVE THE DAY SHIFT ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES.
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD: COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS WILL DOMINATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS ALSO PRESENTING A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOP AN INCH OR SO ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER NEXT
WEEK, WITH A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE COLDEST AIR SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR FOR
MONDAY. THIS CYCLE COULD REPEAT AGAIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
CURRENTLY LESS AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATIONS AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK AS A
SUBTLE IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, BUT CEILINGS REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
A FRONT MOVES EAST MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, TURNING WINDS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS 25-30KT DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH GUSTS NEARING 40KT TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
HRRR/RAP INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
ANY TAFS.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR-LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE IN
THIS PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS 30-45+KT. RISKS FOR SNOW
STREAKS AND STRONG WINDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW WILL
INCREASE AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
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