242
FXUS63 KFSD 171114
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
614 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST, ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. A GLAZE OF ICE
IS POSSIBLE AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX IN.
- CONDITIONS TREND WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VERY FEW CHANGES FOR THE INCOMING BAND OF SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES THROUGH, RESULTING IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING THE LAST TO RESPOND. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT
WELL BELOW ZERO, LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AS THE PRECIPITATION FIGHTS THROUGH SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 APPEAR TO HAVE A MORE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL DRY
LAYER WHILE AREAS NORTH OF I-90 SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS MORE
EASILY. REGARDLESS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH THIS FAST MOVING BAND OF SNOWFALL AND BRIEF ICING.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR 1-1.5" NORTH OF I-90 INTO SOUTHWEST MN. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY, AROUND 25-30 MPH, THEY SHOULD NOT PLAY A
MAJOR ROLL. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND JUST ANTICIPATING SHORT
TERM, 1-4 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, MINOR IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A COLDER DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, MUCH COLDER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST AREAS SITTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE
DAY, THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE COLD AS INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPS A BITE AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING, IT'LL BE
BACK INTO THE FREEZER FOR THE NIGHT AS LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) HELP TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. AS A RESULT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
RETURN TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN -5 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH OUR DEEPEST SNOWPACK WHICH IS
SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. LASTLY, REFREEZING SNOWMELT COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS IN ANY AREAS THAT SEE ANY MELTING
TODAY DUE TO THE SUN ANGLE.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO TUESDAY, OUR MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE ON OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50%-80%). LOOKING ALOFT,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS INCREASING LIFT AND FRONTAL FORCING
INTERACT WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTIVE (WAA) REGIME, POCKETS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SD BY MID-MORNING THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT WITH AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED, WARMING 700-800 MB AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO A SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIX AT TIMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH ALSO COULD RESULT IN UP TO A GLAZE OF ICE IN SOME AREAS.
NONETHELESS, ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH MAINLY
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH FALLING SNOW AND ADDITIONAL
SLICK SPOT BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE
TO TAKE IT SLOW WHEN MAKING THOSE EVENING COMMUTES! LOOKING INTO THE
MIDWEEK, BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP US IN
CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, AS WAA CONTINUES TO BUILD
THROUGH MIDWEEK; WE'LL LIKELY FOLLOW A WARMING TREND AS OUR SNOWPACK
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT
HIGHS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S ON TUESDAY
TO THE 50S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S BY THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THE WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, COLD FRONTS WILL
SWING THROUGH ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS. SHIFTING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES,
THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WITH THIS
IN MIND, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW RECORDS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN SIOUX FALLS (73|2022), MITCHELL (77|1994), SIOUX CITY (79|2015)
NONETHELESS, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT
LEADING TO A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S HEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN AND JUST BEHIND THE BAND OF SNOW. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
BACKSIDE OF THE BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. AFTER ABOUT 3Z, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...08
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