494
FXUS63 KFSD 021832
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
132 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS.
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IF A
STORM CAN DEVELOP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-90.
- AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK. EARLY MORNING FROST
OR NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO ND AND MN INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THAT
HAPPENS TO RESIDE WITHIN THE DGZ. WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
LIFTING FROM ABOUT 700 MB A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER A
FEW WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29.
A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH TO
MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAYBE A LITTLE PATCHY CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NO INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS, SO LOOKING DRY.
A WEAK WAVE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, GENERALLY 500 J/KG CAPE OR
LOWER, WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT FOR NOW
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED SO THE THREAT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW. CURRENTLY THE BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO COME WITH A WEAKER WAVE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BIT STRONGER WAVE.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS OF 30 TO 35 ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25
MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF I-29. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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