308
FXUS63 KFSD 201720
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1220 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO CRITICAL IN A BRIEF
WINDOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. ANY
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED.
- THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF SPRINKLES
TO LIGHT RAIN. GUSTS MAY REACH 40+ MPH BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES AND WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, INCREASING FIRE DANGER, BUT WITH LITTLE TO
NO RAIN ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: YET ANOTHER SPECTACULAR MID-MARCH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE 60S
AND INTO THE 70S. A FEW 80S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. WHILE RH VALUES ARE FALLING INTO TO 20% RANGE SOUTH OF I-90
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS REMAIN BELOW RFW CRITERIA.
TONIGHT: THE PASSAGES OF MID-LVL VORTICITY WILL CLEAR OUT CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALLOWING THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FALL TO STABILITY OR EVEN RISE INTO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY: A NEAR RECORD TO RECORD DAY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY MAY REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A VERY DRY DAY
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISKS ARE LIKELY FOUND ALONG OR MOSTLY SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHWAY 20. PLEASE SEE SEPARATE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT BRINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY EVENING AND TRACKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z, ENTERS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BY 10PM, AND CLEARS THE CWA BY 1AM. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT SPG DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT,
SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY FOR 35 TO
45 MPH GUSTS INTO DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE NBM LOW BIAS IN THESE SETUPS,
HAVE BLENDED IN MORE 90TH PERCENTILE AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAM
WINDS.
SUNDAY: COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WITH A RATHER
BREEZY SUSTAINED WIND THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER REACHING THE 80S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DAYBREAK WIND CHILLS IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL
BE NEARLY 60 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
REBOUND BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF LOWER
STRATUS COULD STILL RESULT IN SPRINKLES NORTH OF I-90.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS. INITIAL COLD AIR MASS THAT ADVECTS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME SHUNTED EASTWARD AS LEE-SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. LOW-LVL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE FIRST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, ALIGNED WITH AN
INCREASED SPG. THERE REMAIN SOME HINTS AT LOW-LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. FURTHER EAST, INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER RISKS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE ORIENTATION
OF LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION SPREAD EASTWARD AND OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA. WE'LL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO TO 60S AND THEN 70S
BY WEDNESDAY. ONE THING THAT WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS
THE MIXDOWN OF DRY AIR EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OFF THE DRIER CENTRAL
PLAINS, WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS DEVELOP THAN WHAT
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SUGGESTS. THE FULL RANGE OF NBM GUIDANCE WOULD
SUGGEST A NEARLY 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE 25/75TH PERCENTILE
DEW POINT VALUES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS DIFFERENCE REPRESENTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 20-25% RH VS THE CURRENTLY FORECAST 35% RH VALUES
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING 25+ MPH
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: WE'LL FINISH THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY, WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
TO THE 40S BY FRIDAY. THE EXPECTATION GIVEN AGREEMENT IN ENSEMBLE
DATA IS THAT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE LREF GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY ONLY SUGGESTS A 10-20% PROBABILITY FOR MORE THAN 0.10"
OF QPF OVER THE 7 DAY FORECAST, WITH A 0-5% PROBABILITY OF MORE
THAN 0.25" AT ANY ONE POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TURN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET.
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEAR RECORD VALUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH VERY DRY SOILS WE'RE ALSO EXPECTING TO
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL AS LOW AS 10 TO 20% IN AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS NEAR THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 20. THE BIGGEST VARIABLE OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST REMAINS WINDS ON SATURDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A NARROW WINDOW AFTER 1-2PM WHERE A BRIEF BOUT OF 20-28
MPH GUSTS MAY DEVELOP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD EASTWARD ALONG THE
RIVER FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY IN THE EVENING AS A
FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
FEEL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF HEATING AND POTENTIAL MIXING, WILL
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 75/90TH PERCENTILE OF HREF WIND GUIDANCE.
THE RESULTANT GFDI VALUES PUSH THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH LEVELS IN
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90, BUT THE EXTREMELY LOW RH MAY COMPENSATE
FOR LOWER WINDS TO STILL ALLOW EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH TO OCCUR IN
FINE FUELS ALONG THE MO RIVER. AS A RESULT, WILL ISSUE A
CONFINED RFW FOR AREAS ALONG THE RIVER. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO AREAS OF NW IOWA, WHERE CONFIDENCE ON
DURATION OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER THAN FURTHER WEST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EXTREMELY WARM AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN THE TOP 10
EARLIEST 75 AND 80 DEGREE HIGHS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.
HERE IS A LOOK AT RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 20:
KFSD: 73/2022, KSUX: 79/2015, KHON: 75/1911, KMHE: 77/1994
MARCH 21:
KFSD: 83/1910, KSUX: 85/1910, KHON: 84/1907, KMHE: 88/1907
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 21:
KFSD: 49/1938, KSUX: 48/2012, KHON: 45/1938
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ050-
063-068>071.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
FIRE WEATHER...DUX
CLIMATE...DUX
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