749
FXUS63 KFSD 132323
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
- RAIN RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF GREATER
THAN 0.25" OF RAIN, AND 25% PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN 1 INCH.
- NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY LOCALLY DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES
AND A BETTER FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND IN THE
MID JAMES VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AS SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A STRATUS DECK AROUND 1500 FEET COULD
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
FROST POTENTIAL.
BROAD WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE
MOVING INTO NE. THIS FORCING CONTINUES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THURSDAY, SO EXPECT RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY PRETTY NEGLIGIBLE SO DO NOT EXPECTED ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. THE LATEST CANADIAN ENS, EC
ENS AND GEFS SHOW ABOUT A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED A HALF
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-90.
THURSDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AS RAIN COMES TO
AN END IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
50S.
WHILE SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE, THERE ARE STILL
COME CONCERNS THAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COULD SET UP EARLY ENOUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TO AVOID WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE. RIGHT NOW,
NORTHWEST IA AND NEARBY LOCATIONS APPEAR TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THUS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST.
WEAK RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS HIGH BASED SPRINKLES
CONTINUES OVER SW MINNESOTA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
EVENTUALLY WE'LL WATCH STRATUS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SINK SOUTHWARD. THIS STRATUS IS TIMED TO
REACH I-90 AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTEND IS IN DOUBT.
IN MOST AREAS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...DUX
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