291
FXUS63 KFSD 300447
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1047 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOCALLY WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- A CHILLY NEW YEAR'S EVE IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDNIGHT THAT NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO NEAR 20 DEGREES IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, BUT
DROP BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM-UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
IT'S A CHILLY, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ON THIS MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER-SINGLE DIGITS
OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOW-20S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BEEN COMING DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND THIS
IS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE AREA. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER, WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS MEANS WE'LL SEE OUR LOWS REACHED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY LATE TONIGHT AND EVEN RISE AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. SO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS, BUT TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER-TEENS TO 20S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND HEAD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
PRECIPITATION CREEPING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS
SHOW JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER THAT EVEN IF WE
DID SEE SOME RADAR RETURNS TOMORROW, THE ACTIVITY LIKELY
WOULDN'T MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. ALL THAT TO SAY, LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TOMORROW THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A
MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR OUR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THE MOSTLY SNOW-FREE AREAS OF
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE 40S. WINDS
GUSTS WILL BE UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH TOMORROW, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN AREAS WITH THE GREATEST
SNOWPACK. WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SINCE WE'LL BE STUCK UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS ONE HAS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE AREA (THOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT). ONCE AGAIN, ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
LOOK TO MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AROUND 20-40% ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A JACKSON TO HENDRICKS LINE. LOOKING AT OTHER
ENSEMBLES, THE EC AND EC AI ENSEMBLES ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NBM WHILE THE GEFS IS AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS MUCH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES UP TO 70% IN AND AROUND MARSHALL OF AT LEAST 0.01"
QPF. ONE THING THE ENSEMBLES DO HAVE IN COMMON IS THE FACT ALL
OF THEM SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT OF PROBABILITIES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THIS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. FOR EXAMPLE, THE
GEFS HAS A 70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A TRACE OF QPF IN MARSHALL;
BUT IN PIPESTONE, AROUND 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL, THE
PROBABILITY IS ONLY AROUND 20%. SO THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS ULTIMATE
TRACK, WHICH WON'T GET RESOLVED UNTIL WE GET SOME MORE OF THE
HIGER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY THE 15-35%
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
PRECIPITATION-TYPE LOOKS TO BE PREDOMINATELY SNOW, THOUGH
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS A SMALL WARM-NOSE THAT WOULD LEAD TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THIS WARM-NOSE.
SNOW AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT, LIKELY A FEW TENTHS AT BEST
AS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW IS LESS THAN
20%. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-20S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER-30S TO
LOW-40S ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL BE CHILLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ONCE
AGAIN, WITH LOWS HEADING INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY MORNING RANGING FROM
NEAR ZERO IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER-TEENS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THOUGH, SO ONLY EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY COLDER APPARENT TEMPERATURES WHENEVER ANY LIGHT WIND DOES
BLOW. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, ANOTHER UPPER-WAVE IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH OF US
THIS TIME AND SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH IT HERE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THESE QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE A BIT FARTHER EAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGING ALOFT TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA.
THIS WILL HELP USHER IN SOME WARMING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON NEW YEAR'S DAY AND ON FRIDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WE'LL SEE
HIGHS WARM UP TO THE 30S AND 40S. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AS
SUCH, A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOWER VFR
STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY IN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN TUESDAY EVENING,
WHICH MAY EXPAND SOUTHWEST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MARGINAL
LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY LLJ AROUND 35 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH
SPEED SHEAR, BUT DIRECTIONALLY EXCEED 30 DEGREES AS SURFACE
WINDS ARE SLOWER TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN LATE IN
THE MORNING. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW. SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS NOT ANTICIPATED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SG
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