037
FXUS63 KFSD 100533
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER AHEAD, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT (1" OR LESS) WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
- ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO MONITOR A STORM SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE STORM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TUESDAY MORNING AN AREA OF LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE
OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THESE
WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH SOME DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND SO
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, LOOKING TO REACH THE MID 40S
NORTH OF I-90 AND THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. BY THE AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE REGION.
TUESDAY MORNING AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WILL WORK TO INCREASE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS BAND OF VORTICITY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, CREATING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO. THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE ONSET TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN
CORNER BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
THE WAVE TAKES A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, TURNING THE BAND INTO
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION. AS FAR AS TOTALS, QPF FOR THIS
SYSTEM HAS OVERALL TRENDED DOWN WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
A TREND THAT THE NBM HAS PICKED UP ON. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, AND A
TENTH OR TWO FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS IS DUE TO
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MISSOURI
AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA THAT WILL WORK TO BLOCK MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH FROM THE GULF REGION. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO START AS
RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL AFTER DARK A QUICK TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW TOTALS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH, WITH SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SEEING ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 20S AND
LOW 30S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S. CAMS INDICATE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SPORADICALLY SATURATED LAYER THROUGH THE DGZ WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME A DRY SURFACE LAYER. THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THIS LAYER WILL PRODUCE SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY VIRGA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE HOT, DRY, AND
WINDY CONDITIONS RESULTING IN HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS AT A PATTERN CHANGE THAT
BRINGS MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND COLDER WEATHER.
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWING THE WARMING OF TEMPERATURES IN AREA ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90. THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MIXING
WILL STILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
TONIGHT: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, ACTUALLY INCREASING IN
GUST POTENTIAL AFTER DARK AS MID-LVL VORTICITY PASSES TO THE NORTH.
THAT SAID, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE 30S AS MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
TUESDAY: SLOPED MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER EARLY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LVL AREA
OF VORTICITY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS INITIALLY E-W BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CLOSER TO I-90 IN THE MORNING
THAT COULD DEVELOP HIGH BASED VIRGA/SPRINKLES TRAILING FROM
CENTRAL MN SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TURNING TO
SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR ALOFT SINKS SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH NO DIRECT FEED FROM THE GULF AS
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN MO/KS DEVELOPS AND INTERRUPTS
FLOW. THE END RESULT WILL BE LOW QPF TOTALS WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF >0.10" AROUND 40% IN LREF GUIDANCE. SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW QPF TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.15" (AROUND 75TH
PERCENTILE OF HREF), WITH HREF PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" OVER 60%
ALONG A FOCUSED AREA FROM MARSHALL TO SIOUX FALLS TO LE MARS TO
WINDOM. WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO 1.5"
POSSIBLE BY TIME PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST AT DAYBREAK.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLR AND CHANGEOVER TEMP SLIGHTLY TO BRING MORE
SNOW IN THAN RAIN DURING THE BOTTOM OF THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: A BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LIGHT QPF TIED TO WEAK MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SPATIAL VARIANCE IN QPF IN MODEL
DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF BROAD BUT LOW POPS POTENTIAL AND WILL BE
REFINED CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPMENT TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 40S.
THURSDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MONTANA
AND NORTH DAKOTA WILL SPUR AN INTENSE SPG FURTHER SOUTH, DRAWING
WARM AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 60S, WE'LL NEED TO TAKE A CAREFUL LOOK
AT RH AND WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM WIND GUSTS OF 26-30 KNOTS (NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE) MAY END UP BEING TOO LOW, WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FAVORED. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND GUST CLOSER TO 35-40
MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. NBM DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ARE SITTING NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, AND HAVE
FAVORED LOWER VALUES BASED ON SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE POSITIONING OF THE ELEVATED AND SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH COULD DRAW IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY FORMS. CURRENTLY, THIS
COULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR, PUSHING THE GREATEST
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO AREAS IN THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY: LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY FAVORING A DROP IN HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: "BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH" MAY ONCE AGAIN PROVE
TRUE NEXT WEEKEND AS WE'RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LARGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN STRONGER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT PULLING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A 160 KNOT UPPER JET WILL
HELP DEEPEN THIS WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS, TO WHAT DEGREE IS
THE BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LREF GUIDANCE AND
THEIR INCORPORATED ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WITH NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLES INDICATING A >60% PROBABILITY OF
>0.10" OF PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY. SOME SPACIAL AGREEMENT ALSO
PERSISTS IN HIGHER TOTALS >0.50" WITH FOCUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING TO
AREAS OF SD/MN, IT'S NOT A BAD IDEA TO BEGIN MONITORING IF THERE ARE
REGIONAL TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR AS CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WAVE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 17-25 KTS, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS FROM I-29 WEST. GUSTS MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR.
LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY MAY CONTINUE TO DEGRADE DOWN TO IFR, POSSIBLY
LIFR AS THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES PLACE. CONDITIONS DO
NOT BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AJP
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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