891
FXUS63 KFSD 051143
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
543 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 AM.
ADDITIONAL FOG, INCLUDING DENSE FOG, LOOKS TO RETURN TONIGHT.
- A WARM AND MOSTLY QUIET FORECAST PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTSIDE OF MINIMAL (LESS THAN 25%) PRECIPITATION RISKS LATER
TODAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING MAINLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 14 INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ARRIVING BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON: FOG AND STRATUS RETURNED AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DID EXPAND THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
SEEM TO BE IMPROVING QUICKLY FOR AREAS THAT SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND ADJUST COUNTIES AS NEEDED. IF TRAVELING IN SOUTHWESTERN MN AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN IA AND EASTERN SD, BE AWARE OF
QUICKLY CHANGING VISIBILITY AND SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING.
FOG AND MOST OF THE STRATUS LIFTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SHOULD
SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN LATER TODAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH MID
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, AND INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
THIS EVENING-TUESDAY: A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLAT
RIDGE/WESTERLY FLOW LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS BRINGS PERIODS OF LOW (AROUND OR LESS THAN 25%) POPS TO THE
REGION, MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE US HWY 14 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD INTO TUESDAY REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
(AROUND TO LESS THAN 60%) AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN BUFFALO
RIDGE. DID ADD SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THIS AREA, BUT AGAIN, MOST
STAY DRY DUE TO THE STOUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE DGZ AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE (STRATUS DECK).
FOG LIKELY RETURNS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER WHERE LIGHTER WINDS PREVAIL. ONCE AGAIN, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THANKS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: SPLIT WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH THURSDAY THE COOLER OF THE
TWO DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD: GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH
THE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND FORCING - ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE
MID LEVEL FLOW. 05.00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE BOTH A BIT DEEPER WITH
THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
NORTHERN TROUGH IN OR NORTH OF ND. GFS HAS A SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF
THE NORTHERN TROUGH, BUT KEEPS THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MORE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY TO WORK OUT WITH WHEN, WHERE, HOW
MUCH, AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE MODERATE TO
HIGH (40-75%) AND OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LOW TO MODERATE
(20-60%). THESE PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE VARIABLE BY TIME PERIOD AND
LOCATION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT FURTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER; KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST IF
YOU HAVE REGIONAL TRAVEL PLANS LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 14 MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 25% SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION AT KHON.
OTHERWISE, FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. HAVE ADDED
MENTION TO ALL THREE SITES, AS MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
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