103
FXUS63 KFSD 232328
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
528 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- ANOTHER NIGHT OF DANGEROUS COLD IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH (40-90%) CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS OF -25 OR
COLDER MAINLY NORTH OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE
LINE.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
IT'S BEEN A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE TODAY WITH EVEN A LIGHT
BREEZE CAUSING WIND CHILLS TO DROP WELL DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE 20S AND
NEGATIVE 30S. CONTINUE TO BUNDLE UP TONIGHT AS AIR TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WINDS REMAIN CALM TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -25 TO -30 WHENEVER EVEN A LIGHT WIND BLOWS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR THIS REASON, DID EXTEND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9 AM TOMORROW.
A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL JUST BRUSH OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAINLY ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
SNOWFALL AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LARGELY COLDER
THAN THE DGZ. SO OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF A DUSTING. HOWEVER, IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS THIS WEEKEND FOR OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, MAKE PLANS FOR ANY
POTENTIAL TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE REST OF SATURDAY HERE
SHOULD BE QUIET AND CHILLY, WITH HIGHS FINALLY CLIMBING ABOVE ZERO
FOR MOST OF US, THOUGH STILL MOSTLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE WE COULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO DROP MAINLY TO THE -25 TO -35
DEGREE RANGE, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF WIND CHILLS -25 DEGREES
OR COLDER AROUND 40-90% NORTH OF A HURON-SIOUX FALLS-STORM LAKE
LINE, DROPPING TO A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF -35 OR COLDER WIND
CHILLS IN THESE AREAS. BEFORE THIS NEXT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION, AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MUCH ISSUES. THERE WILL BE A
BREEZE, BUT WINDS WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH THE PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.01" OF LIQUID ONLY
AROUND 10-30% LEADING TO A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW AT MOST
AT THIS TIME. ANY NEW SNOWFALL WILL HELP PROMOTE COLD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH, WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NEGATIVE TEENS HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AN ACTIVE UPPER-PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY
MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW
A ROUGHLY 20-40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, BUT ONCE YOU START
LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW, IT DROPS TO
AROUND 5%. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR LATE WEEK BEFORE TURNING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD. A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND EXPECTED TO REMAINS SO UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN
THEY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS.
VERY LOW CHANCE (<15%) FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER COUNTIES, INCLUDING KSUX FROM NOW UNTIL 24.12Z. VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
054>056.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...AJP
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