153
FXUS63 KFSD 061936
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
236 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WORK WEEK. LOW (15-25%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 18.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS
COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS GRASSES DRY OUT,
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, MAKING FOR A GREAT TIME FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES! QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW (AROUND 20%)
AT TIME. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL SEND SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN COMPARED TO TODAY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IF
CLOUDS ARE A BIT THICKER AND MOVE IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED, THEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. ON THE FLIP SIDE, A SLOWER ARRIVAL AND/OR
THINNER CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW, GUSTING TO 25 MPH ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS PUSHING TOWARDS 30
MPH IN THOSE LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL SETTLE DOWN
THE WINDS TO VERY LIGHT TO CALM. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT MAXIMUM COOLING FROM BEING
REALIZED, BUT SHOULD STILL BE A BIT COOLER (THOUGH STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE) NIGHT THAN COMPARED TO TONIGHT. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE LOW LEVELS STILL
LOOK TO BE PRETTY DRY DURING THE DAY, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE BY THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES (15-25%)
WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-18. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT, ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS SINCE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE
SATURATION WILL BE OCCURRING BELOW THE DGZ. ONLY WAY I CAN SEE
AN AREA PICKING UP TO A TENTH OR TWO WILL BE IF ANY OF THE
SHOWERS CAN TAP INTO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND BECOME A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LESS THAN 15%. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY,
LEADING TO AN OVERALL SUNNY DAY. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOW 80S IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH A BREAKDOWN
IN THIS WARM AND DRY PATTERN MAY START INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRST,
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
80S FOR MOST AREAS. IN TERMS OF WIND GUSTS, THE 06.13Z NBM HAS A 30-
60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH, WHILE THE 06.12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE HAS A LESS THAN 10% OF THIS OCCURRING. SO A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN WHAT THE MAX WIND GUSTS WILL BE, BUT WILL ALSO
HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY FOR POTENTIALLY SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, DO THINK WE'LL NEED TO SEE SOME SERIOUS
DRYING OF FUELS AND BROWNING OF GRASSES BEFORE THIS BECOMES A
THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
MEANWHILE OUT WEST, A TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK AS IT SENDS SOME UPPER WAVES OUR WAY. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING WHEN WE SEE THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES, AND AS SUCH THE NBM MAINTAINS BROAD 15-35% POPS
STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE LREF IS
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER (IN THE 20-40% RANGE) DURING THAT TIME,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A STORM
SYSTEM SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT, IT'S
JUST A MATTER OF WHEN WE'LL SEE SEE IT MOVE THROUGH. IN TERMS OF
AMOUNTS, THE LREF SHOWS THE HIGHEST 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 15-25% CHANCE
OF TOTALS GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES AND THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY
TUESDAY, THOUGH EXACT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED
AS THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK BECOMES MORE
APPARENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG (20% CHANCE) EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH VARIABLE DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED WHENEVER
WINDS GO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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