160
FXUS63 KFSD 062012
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
212 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN LOW LYING AREAS.
- THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN NORTHEAST NE AND NORTHWEST IA. FOR
NOW IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR BUT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF A
CORRECTIONVILLE TO SPENCER IA LINE MAY SEE SOME MEASURABLE
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A WEAK FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BRING SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TO AREAS
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS DRIVEN BY A WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COMPONENT
AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCANT. IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR
AT BEST. OTHERWISE, WESTERLY FLOW DEEPENS WITH WARMING IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS EXPECTED. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. ANY WEAK CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED AS THIS WAVE PASSES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY MILD, ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCOMING WAVE AND
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COULD LIMIT THE WARMING A BIT
BUT WILL STILL BE A VERY MILD DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO POINT TO LOCATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE FROM KS INTO IA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN NORTHEAST NE AND
NORTHWEST IA. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE THERMAL
PROFILE IN THESE AREAS, BUT SOUNDINGS DO POINT TOWARDS THE THREAT OF
RAIN, SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
IMPACTS TO THESE AREAS WITH A BIT BETTER CHANCE NEAR AND EAST OF A
CORRECTIONVILLE TO SPENCER IA LINE. THE LATEST GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE
POINT TOWARDS A TIGHTER PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE IDEA THAT THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
LINGERING WRAP AROUND LIFT AND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY LOW CONFIDENCE (20-30
PERCENT) OF ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. A COLD POCKET ALOFT AS LOW
PRESSURE WRAPS UP AND SHIFTS EAST COULD PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
MAY SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 TODAY, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OF WHICH SOME COULD
BE BRIEFLY IFR AND LIFR.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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