794
FXUS63 KFSD 251856
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
156 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOST
AREAS WEST OF I-29 SEEING ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS OF 1+ INCHES.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MONITOR YOUR
LOCAL FORECAST IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S
WITH A FEW LOW 70S AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
CURRENTS-MONDAY: ANOTHER DREARY AND WET DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, WE'RE CONTINUING TO ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN SHIELD LIFTS INTO NORTHEASTERN SD AND CENTRAL
SD. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, SHOULD SEE A SHIFT EASTWARDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
LOCKING US INTO INTERMITTENT SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. FROM
HERE, SHOULD SEE RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SODAK. GIVEN THE BETTER LIFT AND
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WITH THE WAVE, POCKETS OF
MODERATE (AND AT TIMES HEAVY) RAIN LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MAINLY WEST OF I-29. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL BE A LONGER DURATION
RAINFALL EVENT (24-30 HOURS) SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTING.
HOWEVER, LOCALIZED PONDING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
DEVELOPS.
LOOKING AT OVERALL AMOUNTS, MOST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT IN AREAS ALONG WEST OF A YANKTON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM, MN LINE BEING THE FOCUS FOR 1+ INCHES AMOUNTS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL (30%-50%) FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER (UP TO 2 INCHES) WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS, COULD ALSO
SEE SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING. LASTLY, A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AS A RESULT, DAILY HIGHS WILL VARY BETWEEN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S IN THE WETTEST AREAS (WEST OF THE LINE) AND MID 50S TO LOW
60S IN THE DRIEST AREAS (LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN IA).
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: LOOKING INTO TUESDAY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF NORTHEASTWARDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BRINGING THE RETURN OF QUIETER CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE WEST OF I-29 AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN.
THIS COMBINED WITH A BIT OF LINGERING WAA WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY RECOVER WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S.
A TIGHTENING SPG COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY, COULD
SEE THE RETURN OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS A QUICK SHORTWAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, ANY RESULTING ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30%-50%) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST OF I-29. LASTLY, WE'LL SEE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL RETURN THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE PLAINS. SOME MEDIUM TO LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO LATCH ON TO SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE. WE'LL JUST CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS A BIG HOLIDAY FOR THE KIDDOS.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO LEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-
WISE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, A VFR TO MVFR CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POCKETS OF EMBEDDED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY-14 AND
ACROSS CENTRAL SD. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOP PROMOTING MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR AT TIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS IN MIND, TIMED IN A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY AT KFSD AND KSUX
BEFORE HAVING RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT. AT KHON, DECIDED TO KEEP
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS IN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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