468
FXUS63 KOAX 300528
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER CONDITIONS
MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR. TUESDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY BE 10-30
DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT BRINGING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH RH VALUES IMPROVING, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL START OUT ON A WARM NOTE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WAA IS
EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 20S TOWARD RULO AND BEATRICE. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE WHERE THE LOWER RH VALUES ARE LOCATED. HOWEVER, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MONDAY AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE
REGION, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THESE
SHOWERS CAN OVERCOME DRY LOWER LEVELS AND REACH THE SURFACE. MONDAY
EVENING, SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TUESDAY WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTH INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY BEING AS MUCH AS 10-30 DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE A
DAY TO WATCH IN TERMS OF DRYNESS EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP RAISE RH VALUES TO LIMIT SOME
OF THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION
TO WATCH AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WOULD BE
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE A
BIT WARMER.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE, ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME
AREAS, AND SNOW IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
MODELS ARE FAVORING A COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER FORECAST PERIOD
TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME WARM,
MOIST GULF AIR, PULLING IT NORTHWARD WITH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA POTENTIALLY BENEFITING FROM SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN. MODELS DO DIGRESS ON TIMING OF WHEN THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
CHANGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF CYCLE. LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KTS WILL PERSIST TILL ABOUT 13Z.
THEREAFTER, SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO JUST UNDER 12 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z BUT
REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS. WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AT 15,000 FT AND ABOVE PASS OVER TERMINALS TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 22Z THAT MAY
AFFECT KOMA AND KLNK, BUT CHANCES (10-30%) WILL LIKELY BE
HAMPERED BY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SO HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT OF TAF
FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
.......MONDAY, MARCH 30TH..........
...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD
LINCOLN, NE.. 88F .... 88 IN 1917
OMAHA, NE.... 89F .... 89 IN 1968
TEKAMAH, NE . 87F .... 81 IN 2015
FALLS CITY .. 89F .... 90 IN 1986
NORFOLK, NE . 86F .... 87 IN 1968
VALLEY, NE... 88F .... 78 IN 2012
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CASTILLO
CLIMATE...CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page