002
FXUS63 KOAX 081044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-14% CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- 50-60% CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA ON SATURDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
(20-45%) AND AGAIN THURSDAY (15-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK H7-H8
THERMAL ADVECTION HAS LED TO AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER THIS MORNING, BUT THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP
WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE SFC GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HAVE THROWN IN SOME SPRINKLES (10-14%
CHANCE) INTO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 18Z FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT WITH CLOUD BASES AT
10KFT UNDERNEATH DRY AIR, WE SHOULD STAY DRY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTHWEST, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOL TO THE 40S.
ON SATURDAY, AN H5 SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A
SECONDARY WAVE WILL RIDE THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
522DAM CANADIAN LOW. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES JUST AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE SFC LOW TOWARD MUCH OF IOWA INTO NEBRASKA. THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE MAY
TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST.
THE NEWEST DETERMINISTIC CAM GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TRICKLING IN FOR
SATURDAY, BUT DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP. 00Z HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP (40-50%) CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN TO CLARINDA, IA, WHILE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE EURO
AND CANADIAN SEEM TO SUGGEST THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. AT THIS TIME, HAVE MAINTAINED THE NBM
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS POPS OF 15 TO 30% SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER,
AND KEEPS 50 TO 60% POPS CONFINED TO THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM TO THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE 80S ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT COOL TO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR MONDAY TO THE 80S AS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES EXPAND AND MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN H5 WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE
WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WITH A FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE AS
POPS REMAIN AT 20 TO 45%, BUT ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COULD
APPROACH 90F. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TOO, CURRENTLY
AT 15 TO 30%.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
ARE NOT RESULTING IN AVIATION IMPACTS DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN AND OVERCAST CEILINGS WILL
LINGER WITH THESE SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WITH A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT CAN BE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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