048  
FXUS63 KOAX 170737  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
237 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH  
TODAY BEFORE A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TWO PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN RE-  
JOIN IN THE FORM OF A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL  
TRACK THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN THE  
LOW LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEE  
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN  
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.  
 
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE  
AREA. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, WE SHOULD SEE  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 60 EAST AND MID 60S  
NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON  
THURSDAY, YIELDING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN  
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS  
BY AFTERNOON, LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS  
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A BELT  
OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD YIELD  
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL  
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (I.E.  
ROUGHLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA), WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP  
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 60S BEHIND IT.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
ON SATURDAY, A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER  
MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY WITH OUR AREA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF A COLD, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SURGING SOUTH THROUGH  
THE MS VALLEY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S WITH GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST  
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
 
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH  
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MEAD  
LONG TERM...MEAD  
AVIATION...KERN  
 
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