751
FXUS63 KOAX 200437
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021
MAIN FEATURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CLOSED LOW MIGRATING
ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER WITH A MIX OF PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS WY.
SURFACE REFLECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS WITH ATTENDANT
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST NE TO NORTHERN MN.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OUT OF THE NE PANHANDLE/WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPAND
ACROSS THE REST OF SD AS WELL AS NORTHERN NE. RAP/HRRR TIME THE
PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDNIGHT.SPC HAS PLACED US
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SUGGESTS
COMPOSITE PARAMETERS INCLUDING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE
MAXIMIZED OVER OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT
SERIOUS DOUBT AND SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL.
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR SO BY
EVENTS END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AMOUNTS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.05" TO 0.10".
OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS FILLING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY PERIOD THEN FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HINTING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE NOTED THAT IF THE
LATEST GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS VERIFY, NEXT WEEKENDS STORMS MAY BE MORE
INTENSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WED - MID 50S/LOWER 60S
THU - MID/UPPER 50S
FRI - LOW 60S
SAT - LOW/MID 60S
SUN - MID 60S/LOW 70S
MON -UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
TUE - MID 70S
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 08Z. IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK.
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN
(VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 3 SM AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 1,500 FT
AGL). ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION
BETWEEN 10Z AND 22Z WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER.
AWAY FROM THE RAIN, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KOMA NORTH
BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY.
MIXED WINDS, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED REGION WIDE
THROUGH 10Z WEDNESDAY. THEN A RAPID TRANSITION TO WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 14 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 28 KT BETWEEN
15Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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