989
FXUS63 KOAX 181138
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
638 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018
A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE REGION HELPED SPUR CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EARLY MORNING. AT
THE SURFACE, A FRONT CONTINUED TO WAFFLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH OF
THE FRONT, WITH 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHUFFLE SOUTH TODAY, AND
EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE-80. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREEP INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BIT OF HAIL, GIVEN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY AND MODEST SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES IN
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FURTHER
SOUTH, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM DAVID CITY TO OMAHA TO OAKLAND, IA. THAT'S 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST CAM RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY, AIDING IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND FINALLY
PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME LIKELY, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS NORTHERLY FLOW FILLS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PENDULUM WILL SWING BACK THE OTHER WAY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE NEAR KOFK THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING
IN VARIABLE WINDS. KLNK AND KOMA REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY
OF KOFK 14-21Z. KLNK/KOMA REMAIN DRY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page