368
FXUS63 KOAX 061023
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
523 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MONDAY WILL BE VERY "JULY" IN THAT THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND UPPER 60S SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS DATE. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, SNEAKING INTO THE LOWER 90S. EXPECT
A SOUTH BREEZE, BUT NOTHING OVER 20 MPH, AND NO PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY'S CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
LATE TUESDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONG IN A WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE
DAKOTAS. THIS WILL ORIENT A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHEAST SD BY LATE EVENING, AND IT MAY DRIFT INTO
NORTHEAST NE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS, BUT THE
WIND PROFILES ARE VERY WEAK SOUTH OF THE NE/SD BORDER, SO IT
WOULD PROBABLY BE A STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING SEVERE OTHER THAN
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS PASSING WELL TO THE
NORTH. ALL IN ALL, LATE TUESDAY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLS IN THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MODEST UPPER JET
MAX HAVE A GLANCING INFLUENCE. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A
ROUND OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKELY , AND WIND
SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IF THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, ALL SIGNS POINT TO HEAT.
A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WITH STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THIS
HEAT DOME WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LIKELY LEADING TO SOME OF THE HOTTEST AIR OF THE YEAR. THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ALSO LOOKS WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL
BIT OF A COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED THE
DEVELOPMENTOF SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER, THE
WAHOO AREA, AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN NO
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES. I DELAYED THE MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
KOMA FOR 12Z TO 14Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IS
ALWAYS LOW.
OTHERWISE THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND QUIET.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page