805
FXUS63 KOAX 131714
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MID 50S
TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 BY
TUESDAY.
- RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A MEDIUM
(50-70%) CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE DESPITE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WITH OUR REGION BEING FAR REMOVED FROM THIS SYSTEM AND
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE WILL
BE A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (50-70%) ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEATHER SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MEAGER WITH PERHAPS
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER WHERE IT DOES END UP RAINING
ON SATURDAY WITH NEARLY IDENTICAL TEMPERATURES TO FRIDAY
ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HELPS TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A TWO-PART SYSTEM. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA, THE
BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE. A BRIEF LULL MAY ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE LOW TRACK
FORECAST TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY CHANGE. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES HEADING INTO FRIDAY. IT IS TOO
SOON FOR EXACT DETAILS ON THIS, BUT GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN MAY CREEP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS TO REACH KLNK
WILL BE AROUND 14Z SATURDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...KG
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