104
FXUS63 KOAX 231735
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (15% CHANCE OF SEVERE FOR ANY GIVEN
STORM), WITH THE GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.
- DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE DRIVING EXTREME FIRE
DANGER FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH A RED FLAG
WARNING IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY
(60-90%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT APPARENT
ALREADY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WITH A SLOW MOVE TO THE EAST
SET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT WITH IT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN, HELPING TO INCREASE SHEAR
WHILE LAPSE RATES TO WORK ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. EVEN NOW, INCREASING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WHERE UPDRAFTS AIDED BY MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE.
JUST TO KEEP THINGS ORGANIZED, I'LL SET OUT THE MAIN EXPECTATIONS
FOR THE DAY AND GET FURTHER INTO THE HAZARD. INITIAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AS UPDRAFTS FIGHT
WEAK CAPPING AT 850-700 MB. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH ONLY A HANDFUL
OF STORMS BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT PAST THE INHIBITION TO REACH A
STRONGER LEVEL. THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO WAHOO THROUGH 1 PM. BETWEEN 1
AND 3 PM, STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME LIKELY. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE, AND BE MORE ISOLATED AT
FIRST AS WEAKER UPDRAFTS FAIL FAIL TO BREAK THROUGH. THOSE
CELLS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT, AND THIS SEMI-ISOLATED STORM REGIME WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 5
PM. THOSE CELLS WILL INITIATE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
THERE, FURTHER EROSION OF ANY CAPPING INVERSION WILL OCCUR AND
THE LARGELY IN-LINE COMPONENT OF DEEPER-SHEAR VECTORS WILL HELP
DIVE UPSCALE GROWTH, AND TRANSITION STORM MODE INTO A LINER/QLCS
CHARACTER AS IT PUSHES EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 8
PM.
GETTING INTO HAZARDS, THE MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL HOLD THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL, AS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
MID/LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND TAP INTO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. HAIL
ANALOGS UP AND DOWN THE LINE SHOW PLENTY POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCH HAIL,
WITH SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOWER HODOGRAPH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE, HAIL WOULD BECOME LESS
FAVORED, TRANSITIONING TO WIND, QLCS TORNADO, AND MARGINAL HAIL AS
THE HAZARDS. THE BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS THAT CAN BEND BACK A BIT TO BE NORTHWEST, OR WHERE REMNANTS
OF ANY SUPERCELLS REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THIS QLCS REGIME WILL
THEN PUSH EASTWARD, LIMITING THE TRAINING THAT COULD OCCUR AND LIMIT
THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT.
NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FALL INTO PLACE BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-25% AND WINDS INCREASING TO 20-
30 MPH. A WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND
INCREASE TO 40 MPH GUSTS, BUT WITH INCREASING RH AT THAT POINT.
THOSE FACTORS ARE PUSHING FIRE DANGER INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
FOR THE THREAT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
A GENERALLY BUSY PATTERN IS ON TAP ENTERING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA,
DRIVEN FIRST BY THE LEFTOVER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
BEFORE IT GETS KICKED OUT BY A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES EAST
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH FOR
WILL BE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS SET
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND POTENTIALLY SOME STRONG STORMS AS WELL
BASED ON LATEST MACHINE-LEARNING OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM
WILL ENTIRELY DICTATE IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS; A LATE ARRIVAL THAT
DELAYS MOST OF THE RAINFALL UNTIL NIGHTTIME WOULD GREATLY HAMPER
SEVERE POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD DO SOME GOOD WORK TO MAKE
BACK SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND 60S CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KOFK, WHILE
KOMA AND KLNK DEAL WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY. A LINE
OF STORMS IS BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THESE LOCATIONS, SET TO
ARRIVE 1930-2000Z LASTING FOR 1-2 HOURS. AS THE MOVE THROUGH,
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE (GREATER THAN 35 KTS)
ALONG WITH HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. CEILINGS WILL DIP INTO
MVFR TERRITORY, WITH VISIBILITIES FOLLOWING SUIT OR STAYING JUST
ABOVE AT 6 MILES. ONCE IT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY ONCE THE LARGER
WIND SHIFT ARRIVES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME INCREASE IN GUSTS
AS IT ARRIVES FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
WHILE STAYING OUT OF THE NORTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
016-017-030-031-042.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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