822
FXUS63 KOAX 121719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1119 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND LOW 50S EAST.
- 15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR WEST TUESDAY. 10 TO
14% CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER.
- TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY (LOW TO MID 30S) WITH GUSTY WINDS
LINGERING. 45 TO 50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH
IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY. 20 TO 50% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS OAX EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A WEAK H5
WAVE WHICH 07Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. KOAX RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT
PRECIP RETURNS WITH THE WAVE, BUT NONE OF THIS IS REACHING THE
GROUND PER LATEST SFC OBS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
TOO FROM JUST BELOW H5 TO THE SFC. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE RIDES THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY BUT THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO A FEW MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER PUSH OF H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN BY
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP WARM HIGHS TO THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60F FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND LOW 50S
EAST. HAVE DEVIATED FROM NBM GUIDANCE AND INCREASED HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS FOR TONIGHT
COOL TO THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE A FEW SPOTS SEE 40F.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AN H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WAVE
INTENSIFIES, SFC CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES. WHILE THE MAIN 990MB SFC LOW
STAYS WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY GOOD
MIXING IS SEEN FROM THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS UP INTO A 30 TO 40 KT JET
MAX ROUNDING THE H8 LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAVE BLENDED IN HIRES GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO
NBM TO BUMP UP WINDS GIVEN THE MIXING AND H8 JET CORE. ALTHOUGH
MINIMUM RH RANGES FROM 35 TO 45% IN EASTERN NEBRASKA, COULD
CERTAINLY SEE AREAS OF HIGH FIRE DANGER, WHILE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HIGHER
RH IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN IOWA LIMITING CONCERNS THERE.
THE APPROACHING H5 WAVE WILL DRAG A RIBBON OF VORTICITY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEBRASKA AS WELL AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE
AN AREA OF WEAK FORCING THAT INTERACTS WITH APPROACHING PACIFIC
MOISTURE. LATEST CAM SUITE ALONG WITH PARAMETERIZED MODELS SUGGEST
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT SEEN IN SOUNDINGS, LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR FROM H7 TO THE SFC MAY HAMPER RAIN CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS UNMENTIONABLE (<15%) OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ASIDE FROM OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS OBSERVED (15-20% CHANCE OF RAIN FROM
18Z TO 23Z). A 10 TO 14% CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES CERTAINLY CAN'T
BE RULED OUT THOUGH, PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TUESDAY WARM TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST SPOTS BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOWS COOL TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE AND FORCING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC HIGH
MAY RESULT IN SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR FAR
WEST (~15% CHANCE), LARGELY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 25
MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SUBSIDING WITH THE APPROACHING SFC HIGH.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 30S EXPECTED IN
WESTERN IOWA. A SERIES OF WAVES EJECT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS, WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS EVENTUALLY
OCCURRING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. WINDS REALLY RAMP UP THOUGH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A STRONG 50 TO 60
KT JET ROUNDS THE BACKSIDE OF THE H8 LOW. NBM CURRENTLY HAS
WIDESPREAD NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH, WITH ISOLATED 45 TO 50
MPH GUSTS IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST LREF ENSEMBLES (EPS)
SUGGEST A 45 TO 50% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45
MPH, PRIMARILY OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE H8 JET CORE
IS STRONGEST.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THIS FORECAST
UPDATE, NBM CURRENTLY HAS POPS OF 20 TO 50% FOR SNOW, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW QPF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW ENTERING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF RUN GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTH AND EAST. LREF GUIDANCE HOWEVER SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF
ANY QPF REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES
FOR A 1/2 INCH OF SNOW OR GREATER REMAIN AT 25 TO 30% ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTH AND EAST BUT SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OF WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT.
IF SNOW DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP, CERTAINLY COULD SEE EXTREMELY POOR
VISIBILITIES WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES COOL SATURDAY TO THE 20S AND 30S ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 40F IN THE FAR
WEST WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
PASSING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS (AT OR ABOVE FL120). LLWS DEVELOPS
13/04Z-13/07Z AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS, AND ENDS BY
13/13Z-13/16Z. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10-12 KT SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST AFTER 13/13Z WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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