795
FXUS63 KOAX 131035
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
535 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTH. FALL-LIKE
WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UNPRECEDENTED PROLONGED HEAT FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IS COMING
TO AN END AS COOLER AIR HAS PUSHED ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA OVER
THE DAY'S COURSE. FROPA FINALLY OCCURRED AT FALLS CITY AND
NEBRASKA'S REMAINING SQUARE MILE AROUND 10PM.
WE WATCHED AS CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING ALONG THAT SAME FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED 25% POPS ALONG
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT FOR THIS CWA, TOO, DUE TO INCREASED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS. BOTH EAX (KC) AND OAX
(OMAHA) SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE OMAHA METRO. EXPECT TO
BE DRY BY MORNING.
TUESDAY
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT,
WELL INTO KS/MO WILL PUSH BACK TOWARD FALLS CITY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY THANKS IN PART TO THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS.
INITIATION WILL BE AIDED BY H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS THE AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK.
MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THIS CWA OR AT BEST IN OUR FOUR SOUTH-EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES. WITH SHEAR NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, EXPECT STORM
MODE TO EXCLUDE SUPERCELLS. THE NORTHERN 90% OR MORE OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE
WRAPPING UP AS THE SUN RISES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS KS AND THE
COLD FRONT. POPS BECOME LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-OCTOBER WITH VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF.
THURSDAY
RAIN IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE EC
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR ERODING THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. OTHER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
INDICATE A PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT WITH THE AREA REMAINING UNDER
A DEFORMATION ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SEEING 1"
OR MORE ACCUMULATE IN THE 24 HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RUNS FROM 25% TO 50% (NBM).
THE REST OF THE DAYS
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN ON FRIDAY, LEAVING HIGHS IN THE
50S; SHY OF SEASONAL NORMS AND THE COOLEST DAY SINCE MAY. AS
WINDS RELAX UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET AND WIDESPREAD 30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. PATCHY FROST
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS THE FREEZING MARK LOOKS
HARDER TO HIT.
TEMPS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
WORKS THROUGH THE AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP, BUT THAT SUN
ISN'T RIDING AS HIGH IN THE SKY AS IT WAS JUST A MONTH AGO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS MORNING. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS, WITH
PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTING KOMA AND KLNK REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 00-06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...KG
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