276
FXUS63 KOAX 300421
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WARM,
HUMID WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER WEATHER JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD
STARTING NEXT WEEKEND GOING INTO FOLLOWING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A MCV IS MOVING NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING,
GENERATING THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONALLY FLARING UP NEW
CONVECTION. WEAK SHEAR KEEP THESE STORMS SHORT-LIVED AND WEAK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHWARD, NOT CLEARING OUR AREA
UNTIL CLOSER TO 5AM. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING
ROBUST STORMS ALONG A LINE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING. THESE ARE MOSTLY BEING FORCED BY THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WE'LL BE
WATCHING THESE STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD OUR AREA. CAM GUIDANCE WANTS TO PULL THESE STORMS
EASTWARD AT THE LAST MINUTE AS IT APPROACHES THE NEBRASKA STATE
LINE, LIKELY DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER STORMS FROM GETTING INTO
OUR AREA, OR IF THEY DO, SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA, THOUGH, MOSTLY EXITING THE AREA BY 10
AM.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER MUGGY, WARM DAY WITH AIR AS
THICK AS PEA SOUP. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 80S,
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S ARE GOING TO MAKE YOU SWEAT.
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AROUND, WE'LL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POP UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. WHAT
WE'RE WATCHING MORE CLOSELY IS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE WIND
AND HAIL, AS STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IS
A CONVECTIVE LINE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY EVENING AND PUSH EAST TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS IT LIFTING NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS WELL FROM
THIS MCS, MAINLY CLOSER TO 5-7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, PULLING DRIER AIR EAST INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CLEARING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE DRY
LINE AND EVENTUALLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS AS RIDGING
STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE SINKS
DOWN OVER THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH EXPANDING EASTWARD,
WE POTENTIALLY COULD SEE A MOISTURE STREAM SNEAK BACK NORTH INTO
OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THIS COULD MEAN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WEAKENING AS
IT CONTINUES EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG
RIDGING BUILD UP JUST EAST OF OUR AREA, LEADING TO A FAIRLY GOOD
OVERNIGHT MCS PATTERN. MOISTURE STREAMING UP THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE GULF WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON STORMS AGAIN OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY, DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS AND PUSHING EAST
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, PUSHING THE MOISTURE STREAM FARTHER EAST, BRINGING
AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY,
DEVELOPING INTO AND MCS THAT PUSHES EAST INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD UP NEXT
WEEKEND, LIKELY BRINGING HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS STARTING A COUPLE
WEEKS EARLY. CPC IS ON BOARD WITH THIS FORECAST, PREDICTING A
60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 8-14
DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THAT START THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS CEILINGS DECREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK AND IFR TO PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KOFK. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY COVERAGE IS BRINGING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
(50%) AT KOMA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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