086  
FXUS63 KOAX 120357  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1057 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, AND A 5% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS  
WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  
 
- TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE WARMING UP  
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FESTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN  
FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES  
RISING INTO THE 70S AND 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND  
70S LED TO A BOOST OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, AS MUCAPE ESTIMATES  
APPROACHED 2000 J/KG. A SURFACE LOW TRACKED THROUGH SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS  
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP-UP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING  
OFF TO OUR EAST OVER CENTRAL IOWA. THANKFULLY, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR  
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
CAMS SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A  
COLD FRONT, DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. OVERALL CAM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS  
LINE WILL STRUGGLE, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS  
EVENING.  
 
ROUND 3 WILL COME IN THE FORM OF AN MCV-DRIVEN COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS  
NEAR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SURGES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WHILE  
THESE TOO ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST  
WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
UPDRAFT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  
 
OVERALL, ALL THREE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE  
MARGINAL 20-30KTS OF SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, MAKING IT HARD FOR  
UPDRAFTS TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED. WHILE THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY  
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY PRODUCING SOME STRONG WINDS OR MARGINALLY  
SEVERE HAIL, THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A  
QUICK TORNADO TO SPIN UP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST IOWA,  
WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS. HOWEVER, THAT POTENTIAL IS  
QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE DEPARTING LOW.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.  
SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY NICE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND  
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S, AS OPPOSED TO THE 70S THAT WE'VE BEEN  
SMOTHERED WITH RECENTLY. A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS MAY GRAZE THE  
AREA AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY  
MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL  
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S.  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 90S ON MONDAY AND 80S TUESDAY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...  
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A  
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM OUR NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST. MACHINE LEARNING PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS FOR SEVERE CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LIKELY GIVE THE  
ROBUST INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, SEVERE STORM MAY  
BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WHICH IS STILL  
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 70S AND  
80S, MAKING FOR A COMFORTABLE END TO THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY DONE WITH TONIGHT, WITH THE  
ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST NEAR KLNK WITH  
THE LIKELIHOOD BEING AROUND 10%. A BROKEN LAYER OF CLOUDS ARE  
CURRENTLY DRIFTING PAST KLNK AND KOMA AT AROUND FL040, AND  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TOMORROW, WHILE  
STILL BEING LIGHT.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KG  
AVIATION...PETERSEN  
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