731
FXUS63 KOAX 170819
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
219 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY, ALONGSIDE BREEZY WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 20-35 MPH.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING A 20-50% CHANCE FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY
SOME SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE WYOMING/COLORADO AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TODAY, AS MOISTURE MOVES
IN. LOW LEVEL DRYNESS MAY PROVE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME INITIALLY, BUT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REACHING THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS RAIN MOVES OUT LATE TONIGHT, TOTALS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 0.10", WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIMITED TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA, ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS, TO OMAHA, TO RED OAK, IA.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-35 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BOOSTED WITH THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW, YET STILL LIMITED BY THE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, LEAVING AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO CLOSE TO 60 NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AS THEY TURN TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A FEW SPRINKLES COULD PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, HOWEVER A
DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, TO THE 50S OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY, AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
SNEAK INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY, BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. WHILE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S, HOWEVER NIGHTS
WILL DIP TOWARD FREEZING, BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING MID CLOUDS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL START TO PUSH IN MONDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS OF
2000-3000 FT. IN ADDITION, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING THAT HIGHER
CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
MAINLY MONDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS
QUITE LOW. CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AT OMA
AND OFK, BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LNK.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING UP MONDAY MORNING, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA
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