439
FXUS63 KOAX 100501
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1201 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
SUNDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. EXPECT SOME 90S BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER RISK. LOW END CHANCES FOR
POPS EXPECTED TUESDAY (<15%) AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
(15-25%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
04Z METARS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT NOW WELL
TO OUR SOUTH. BEHIND THE FRONT, H8 ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD ADVECTION
OVER MUCH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE
FESTERED OVER OUR FAR SOUTH THE LAST FEW HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. A PASSING H5 DISTURBANCE COULD HELP GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BUT WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SOME PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
HAVE KEPT POPS UNMENTIONABLE WITH THIS UPDATE TO LESS THAN 10% IN
THAT AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COOL TO THE 40S.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER. AS THE WESTERN CONUS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES, MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SECONDARY WAVE EJECTING FROM NEAR MONTANA/WYOMING AHEAD
OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH TRACKS OVER THE US/CANADA
BORDER. THE FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA, HELPING TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
INCREASE IN STRENGTH BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME
TO 25 TO 30 MPH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COOL TO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE COLD FRONT ORIGINATING FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHILE THE MAIN H5 WAVE TRACKS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME RAIN CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SERVICE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST
IN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH,
TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE 80S. THE
LINGERING TIGHTNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT GUSTINESS TOO, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE 15-25% RH,
AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER COULD DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY OVER
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE FUELS REMAIN CRITICAL DESPITE THE
SPRING GREEN-UP IN FULL SWING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET AND WARM AS A LARGE CHANNEL OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S ONCE MORE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 1000-500 MB RIDGE PIVOTING EAST ON TOP OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGHS THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WHILE
LOW TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE FRIDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THOUGH SO ANTICIPATE A DRY HEAT. AN H5
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. PROBABILITIES DON'T APPEAR TOO
GREAT WITH CHANCES AT 15 TO 25% BOTH DAYS. WILL STILL WANT TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THESE DAYS, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AS A FEW PIECES
OF MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOW SOME LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY, AND COMBINED WITH THE 15-20% RH, COULD
SEE EXTREME FIRE DANGER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOP THERE.
WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S.
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES ARE SEEN AMONGST GUIDANCE ON THE
PLACEMENT OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE/CLOSED H5 LOW TRACKING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST UPDATE INDICATES LOW END
CHANCES FOR POPS OF 15 TO 25% AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAKENING
NORTH WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS BASED BETWEEN 8 TO 10 KFT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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