859
FXUS63 KOAX 021722
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1122 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY (50-70% POPS), LEADING
TO TRAVEL IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 IN
NEBRASKA). ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH 0.1" IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A SEWARD TO LINCOLN TO
PLATTSMOUTH LINE IN NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEKEND
WITH LARGELY DRY AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WY/CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN WY
INTO WESTERN KS, WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID-
MO VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE (<1/4)
IN SOME OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
LATEST CAM OUTPUT INDICATES LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE 14-16Z TIMEFRAME WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION THEN
ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EXPLICIT CAM DATA INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
0.05"-0.1" ARE EXPECTED IN THE NELIGH AND ALBION AREAS WITH
DECREASING AMOUNTS WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TRACE
TO AN INCH ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATION AND RESULTANT IMPACT TO
TRAVEL, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A SEWARD TO LINCOLN TO PLATTSMOUTH LINE
TODAY. THE ADVISORY START TIME IS 8 AM IN NORTHEAST NE, AND NOT
UNTIL 2 PM FOR I-80, INCLUDING LINCOLN AND OMAHA WHERE THE LIGHT
ICING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AT MANY LOCATIONS
TODAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
MORNING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY
STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FORECAST
SATURDAY WITH 40S AND 50S EXPECTED SUNDAY.
A QUASI-ZONAL, MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME MODEL SIGNAL FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT
SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A SURFACE FRONT, WHICH WOULD MOVE THROUGH
OUR AREA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT TIME.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, SOME 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. LOW CEILINGS REMAIN IFR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND ARE AT LOW-END MVFR TOWARDS WESTERN IOWA. CEILINGS MAY
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EITHER AT IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. FREEZING RAIN IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OFK WILL BE
IMPACTED FIRST WITH OMA AND LNK EXPECTED TO SEE FREEZING RAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BETWEEN 20-22Z. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. OFK FIRST, AROUND 22Z, WITH OMA AND LNK FOLLOWING A FEW
HOURS LATER, SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. DURING THIS
TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY KEEP VISIBILITY MVFR. ANY
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY BECOMING
LOW-END MVFR FOR ALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030>032-042-043-050.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ015-033-034-044-045-051>053-065>067.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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