964
FXUS63 KOAX 071053
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED FROST MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR AN AREAWIDE FROST REMAIN LOW.
- DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH LITTLE THREAT
(10-14% CHANCE) FOR SOME RAIN/SPRINKLES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S. A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H5 LONGWAVE TROF DOMINATING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
CANADA. THE FEATURE PLACES MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW, AND SHOULD SEE A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW
TRACK TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE WEAK FORCING FROM THE
WAVE COMBINED WITH H7-H8 LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION MAY HELP
FORCE A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN BORDER AREAS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRUGGLE TO
SATURATE ANYTHING BELOW 10KFT, SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME MID TO
HIGH BASED CLOUDS IN THOSE AREAS.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD
HELP LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS ABOVE FREEZING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR VERY FAR
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS TOO MAY HELP REDUCE THE FROST THREAT
IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY, SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS AS
H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTINESS UP TO 25 MPH
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER. A SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BY
THE EVENING HOURS, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
LATE EVENING. VARIOUS CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, BUT
ONCE AGAIN, THE DRY AIR WINS WITH FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LITTLE IF ANY SATURATION BELOW 10KFT. AT THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN
UNMENTIONABLE AT 10-14%. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT REACH THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT COOL TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE FEATURE WILL BE RIGHT AT OUR DOORSTEP. FARTHER
TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE CLOSED H5 LOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SFC FEATURE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF IOWA AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR SERVICE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (50-60% POPS) LARGELY CONFINED ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE LATEST NBM RUN SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLES WHICH
ARE TRENDING THE PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH. LREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A
30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR YORK TO LINCOLN TO CLARINDA, IA, WITH THE GEFS BEING
THE NORTHERNMOST MEMBER. HIGHS SATURDAY WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING BEHIND A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 70S. HIGHS REBOUND
THOUGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE 1000-500 MB
THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY. A PASSING H5 WAVE AND SFC LOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN
AT 15 TO 25% WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WINDS WILL BE VEERING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY, AS THE
DIRECTION THAT WIND IS COMING FROM WILL BE CHANGING IN A
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE DIRECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING
WILL BE WESTERLY BY NOON AND NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNSET. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS VFR CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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