907  
FXUS63 KOAX 170443  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1143 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-80,  
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT  
TIMES, WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING INCREASING WITH EACH  
SUCCESSIVE ROUND.  
 
- COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, BUT WE  
QUICKLY WARM BACK UP WITH 80S FRIDAY AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S  
FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S TO  
AROUND 100 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE COOL FRONT  
WHICH MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED  
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THAT  
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT OCCURRENCE, A  
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY  
FORMED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL NE/NORTH-CENTRAL KS BORDER, WITH  
THAT ACTIVITY DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST. BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT, THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FORCE A  
WEST-TO-EAST-ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.  
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INFLOW AIR MASS OF THE ELEVATED  
STORMS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED PARCELS,  
AMIDST A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY TO MODULATE  
UPDRAFT VELOCITIES DESPITE MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH A LOW-  
PROBABILITY RISK (5-10%) FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONCERN, IS THE  
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN THE MODEL SIGNAL FOR  
REGENERATIVE/TRAINING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER, THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH LAST NIGHT'S MCS OCCURRED ACROSS THE SAME  
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NE THAT THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING TONIGHT'S  
STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE STORM CHANCES, WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN  
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS; THE GREATEST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR  
ALOFT, AND NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT SURFACE CONDITIONS.  
 
ON THURSDAY, THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS CURRENTLY  
OVERSPREADING OUR AREA WILL BE FULLY IN PLACE, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S; ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
SOME SMOKE COULD LINGER, BUT AGAIN, IT'S EXPECTED TO LARGELY  
REMAIN ALOFT. WE'LL SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...  
 
ON FRIDAY, MID/UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHEARED  
VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST  
ALONG THE NE/SD STATE LINE, WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONT  
LIFTING NORTH BACK INTO OUR AREA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION  
OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN WARMER  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 80S.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, WITH THE BEST  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTING IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT  
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, IN ADDITION TO THE  
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLOODING RAINFALL.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, PER THE VARIOUS ML-BASED  
FORECAST SYSTEMS. FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AT  
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
HALF OF OUR AREA TO LOW/MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN  
SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER  
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU REGION. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT  
RISES/RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY, WHICH  
WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY DRIER  
WEATHER. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INDICATE AS MUCH, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. SOME 100S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE KS BORDER. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, THOUGH THE  
MODELS INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BY WEDNESDAY IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE  
WEST/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
A DECK OF MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN  
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WHILE BRIEF JUMPS TO VFR WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BEFORE  
IMPROVING LATER IN THE MORNING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS  
DEVELOPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE. TSRA WILL NOT  
BE INCLUDED IN THE LNK TAF AT THIS TIME, AS STORMS WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BEFORE DISSIPATING  
LATER IN THE MORNING. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL  
PERSIST AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...MEAD  
AVIATION...WOOD  
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