950  
FXUS63 KOAX 142324  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH  
THERE WERE SHOWERS TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. PLENTY OF CLOUD  
COVER REMAINED IN PLACE, BUT TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM WERE IN THE  
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OWING TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM  
AIR ADVECTION.  
 
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST LOOK LIKE  
THEY'LL TRACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA) AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND  
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE  
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS,  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GRAND ISLAND, NE, THEN BACK SOUTHEASTWARD  
TOWARD KANSAS CITY WILL BE IN THE AREA TO PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE. IN FACT, SAID SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY  
FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IT WOULD BE, SO  
COULD BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IN THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY  
THOUGHT, BUT WE'VE REMAINED PRETTY CLOUDY ALL DAY, SO STILL NOT  
MUCH TO WORK WITH. STILL, PERHAPS A BIT MORE THUNDER COULD BE  
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN  
WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS, WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH ON  
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  
 
FOR SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH AND  
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, THOUGH  
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE  
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE WELL INTO KANSAS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE  
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS ANOTHER  
COUPLE BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH...ONE ACROSS SOUTH  
DAKOTA AND ANOTHER ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A CLOSED LOW  
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
EVENTUALLY IT LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF  
WIDESPREAD RAIN. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING, BUT PLENTY  
OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN TO EVALUATE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, BEFORE  
THEN, EXPECT THE CONTINUED OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES  
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE 70S, PENDING CLOUDS AND  
PRECIPITATION. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE  
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS  
THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH COULD GET US BACK INTO THE 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
BROKEN CUMULUS AT 5000 FT AGL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WE ARE  
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF  
I-80. HAVE CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT 20-25% CHANCE IS  
EXPECTED FOR KLNK.  
 
LOWER CIGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BY 11Z. VIS COULD  
DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY AT KOFK... AND ALL THREE SITES SHOULD HAVE A  
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SATURDAY.  
 
EXPECT VIS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE BY LUNCH.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CA  
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN  
 
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