167
FXUS63 KOAX 220522
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EXPECT MUCH MORE
DRY TIME THAN WET.
- MUCH OF WEDNESDAY IS FAVORED TO BE DRY BEFORE PERSISTENT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES, WITH A
BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY PERIOD FAVORED ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS EVENING, WITH A SHORTWAVE VERY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EDGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN SD. CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, COULD SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE DEVELOP (20%
CHANCE). A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER UT MOVES THROUGH. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, EXPECT MORE DRY TIME
THAN WET ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RAMP UP
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW STORMS, MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT A FEW
COULD SNEAK IN DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT MUCH, WITH CLOUD
COVER STILL LINGERING. IF YOU MANAGE TO STAY DRY ON WEDNESDAY,
THAT'LL BE THE DAY YOU'LL WANT TO MOW THE LAWN, BECAUSE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POINTING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES
LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE 30-40% THROUGH SATURDAY, GENERALLY
PEAKING IN THE 70-90% RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EVERY NOW AND THEN.
SUNDAY IS TRENDING TOWARD A DRY AND WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES GET
INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. HOWEVER, THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS
SHORT-LIVED WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND GIVES US
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TO MAKE FOR ANOTHER TRICKY
TAF FORECAST, WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS BEING A BIT MORE
PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO SOME OF THE RECENT OBS. WITH THAT IN
MIND, THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED A BIT IN THAT DIRECTION, WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 10-14Z THIS MORNING
ALONGSIDE WINDS THAT BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY. KOMA AND KLNK WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS AFTER AN
IFR MORNING THAT SEES CLOUDS LOWER ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD HEADED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page