763  
FXUS63 KOAX 042309  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
509 PM CST MON MAR 4 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH A  
CHANCE (60-80%) OF RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON FRIDAY  
REMAIN LOW (<10%).  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS REMAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN  
INCREASED TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON  
VALUES EXPECTED AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS,  
WINDS CONTINUE TO OVERPERFORM GUIDANCE WITH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS  
EXCEEDING 30 TO 35 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.  
TUESDAY WILL SEE A REDUCTION IN BOTH RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MINIMUM  
VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT) AND WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGHEST FIRE  
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOWEST RH  
AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERLAP.  
 
ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO  
CALIFORNIA. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE  
AREA BY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DELAY THE MOVEMENT OF  
THIS FEATURE, MEANING WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW 60S  
WITH A MUCH APPRECIATED INCREASE IN RH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK (50  
TO 80 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON).  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE REGION ON  
THURSDAY, BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED  
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE PRESENT THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. POPS UP TO 80% ARE PRESENT IN  
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH VALUES DECREASING TO 50%  
NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED IN TO THE 50S,  
LEAVING RAIN IS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE. A SURFACE LOW IS  
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGHOUT THURSDAY,  
BRINING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OPTIMUM MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS REGION WILL SEE MARGINAL ISENTROPIC  
LIFT AND IMPROVED MOISTURE. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY  
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A  
WARMING TREND WITH THIS EVENT, LEAVING A LOW PROBABILITY (<10%)  
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY  
MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT  
SNOW REMAINS NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION  
TOTALS WITH THE EVENT, BOTH THE NBM AND GFS DISPLAY 1.0 TO 1.25  
IN. SOUTH OF I80 WITH VALUES DECREASING TO 0.25 IN. BY THE NE/SD  
BORDER.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DECREASED  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH  
CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. SUNDAY WILL  
SEE A SLIGHT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NO  
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECLINING  
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME  
WESTERLY BY MID-DAY TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN  
AVIATION...WOOD  
 
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