162
FXUS63 KOAX 222232
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
432 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
..UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
AT 4 PM, THE REGION WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE FIRST WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW WE
RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY, WHILE THE SECOND WAS DIVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE
ONGOING OVER THE REGION, WITH LIGHT SNOW IN IOWA AND SOME COLD
RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER THE REGION
AND TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. JUST WARM
ENOUGH THAT THOSE SIDE ROADS REMAIN SLUSHY OUT THERE.
OUR DUEL THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AS THE TROUGH IN
THE DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND INDUCE A ZONE OF LIFT (AND SUBSEQUENT
PRECIPITATION) OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SIGNS OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WERE ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE BLACK HILLS. THOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING ANY PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE PEAK TIMES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND NOON
THURSDAY. THE GOING FORECAST PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IN A ZONE FROM ALBION TO GRAND ISLAND TO LINCOLN, WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. NOTE, THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
(INCLUDING OMAHA) WHERE WE COULD EASILY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE
SNOW OR SEE SEVERAL INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED
FOR THE REGION WHERE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, AND IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS COULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN IOWA,
WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT PRIOR TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. HENCE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME.
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING, FRIDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY
OVER THE REGION. SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP
OUT NEAR 30 DEGREES. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE KIND OF DAY THAT WILL
BE MELTING MUCH SNOW.
THE TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN
DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOING FORECAST SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM (THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE). YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL "FUN" FOR ALL THE WINTER LOVERS OUT THERE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 22 2020
LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AND LOW
SNOWFALL RATES, SNOWFALL SHOULD MAINLY BE A NUISANCE WITH LIMITED
IMPACT AT KLNK OR KOMA. LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z
THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR BASES
IN THE 200-900 FT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1-5 SM FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG A LINE FROM KLNK TO KOMA. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z
AND 18Z THURSDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AT ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD (KOMA,
KLNK AND KOFK).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-016>018-030>033-042>045.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT
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