326
FXUS63 KOAX 250507
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1207 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY THIS WEEKEND. A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED ALSO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
IT WAS A QUIET MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND THAT
RELATIVE QUIET SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A DECAYING AREA OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY PERSIST
INTO OUR AREA, BUT AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT
SHOULD LIMIT ITS DURATION. OTHER THAN THIS, EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MORNING.
TUESDAY SEES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG A WEAK FRONT
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF
THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVES THEM INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THIS SCENARIO, MORE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CAN
BE ANTICIPATED, ALONGSIDE A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THAT SAID, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY LESSEN
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY
WANES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY END UP BEING TWO PLEASANT DAYS TO LOOK
FORWARD TO. A COLD FRONT BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM DROPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH QUIET WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FURTHER ADDS TO THE ENJOYABLE CHANGE. THIS
CHANGE IS SHORT-LIVED AS A WARMING TREND TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWESTERN US RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. IT REMAINS HUMID WITH PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE RETURN OF AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES
COMES GREATER NEAR-SURFACE STABILITY TO OVERCOME. HOPEFULLY, AT
LEAST SOME RAIN BRINGS PERIODIC RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WATCHING A
COUPLE AREAS OF LOWER CIGS. CURRENTLY SEEING BKN024 AT KAUH AND
SCT037 AT KFET. THINK ANY LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN SCT IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT, BUT DID INTRODUCE SCT035 AT KOMA AND KLNK. OTHERWISE,
ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT UNDER 08 KT ON TUESDAY WITH DIRECTIONS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A PUSH OF
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POP UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH A
10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM 18-06Z AT ANY TERMINAL.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MCCOY
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