339
FXUS63 KOAX 291106
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN IN THE UPPER
70S.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
OCCASIONAL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ACTUAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, PEAKING IN THE MID- TO UPPER
90S TODAY, WERE ENOUGH TO SET A NEW RECORD AT VALLEY (95F POR
SINCE 1994) BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO TIE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OF
THE YEAR SO FAR AT EPPLEY SET BACK ON *MARCH* 21ST AT 96F!
HEAT INDICES ENDED UP PEAKING NEAR FORECAST MAXIMUMS TODAY,
LEAVING IT THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR IN THAT REGARD. 100F TO
110F HEAT INDICES WERE COMMON WITH EPPLEY HOLDING A HEAT INDEX
OF 102 AT 9PM.
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY,
OFFERING NO REASON TO THINK THE POWERFUL JUNE SUN WON'T LEAVE
MONDAY ANOTHER SCORCHER.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HOMES WITH NO A/C VERY
DIFFICULT TO KEEP COOL, FOR THAT REASON THE HEAT ADVISORY AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW. REGARDLESS, IT'LL BE HOT EVERYWHERE. LOWER HUMIDITY IN
THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES PEAKING CLOSER TO
100F ON MONDAY WHILE 105-110 WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST
WE'LL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ONCE MORE.
DESPITE FEELING LIKE A BLAST FURNACE, THE BREEZE DOES MAKE IT
EASIER TO COOL VIA SWEATING. EXPECT MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 24-38 MPH.
THE UPPER PATTERN SEES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER
MONTANA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN COLORADO WITH AN
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM DENVER TO
BISMARCK AND THE WARM FRONT SNAKING EAST OF THE COMPLEX HAS
PUSHED WELL INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THIS MID-LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY, IT'LL DRAG THE COLD
FRONT FARTHER EAST AND PUSHING THE HEAT AXIS DEEPER INTO IOWA.
THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THIS CWA IN THE EVENING
HOURS FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS (4 KJ/KG), BUT CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WILL
A LACK OF FORCING. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON WAITING TO
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AT AROUND 00Z, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE IS OFTEN AN HOUR BEHIND THE REAL WORLD. INITIAL
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AS THE SUN SETS AND THE NOCTURNAL
JET INCREASES WIND SPEEDS RELATIVELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY,
UPDRAFT/COLD POOL INTERFERENCE WOULD QUICKLY LEAD TO UPSCALE
GROWTH AND AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGING POTENTIAL. THE SPC HAS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (2 OF 5). POPS
THE COLD FRONT'S SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL HELP CALM WINDS
AND PUSH DEWPOINTS LOWER MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL OFFER LITTLE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
TUESDAY
IT'LL STILL BE TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES
STILL PEAKING NEAR 100-105 FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER AND I-880. THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST, BUT REMAINS
IN THE VICINITY WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
EAST OF IT. THERE'S PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT SEVERE STORMS
COULD BE TRIGGERED IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. WE'RE CURRENTLY
PROGGED AT A MARGINAL THREAT (1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER.
LONGER RANGE
FINDING OURSELVES IN A POSSIBLE 'RING OF FIRE' ALONG THE EDGE OF
A HEAT DOME LEAVES THE AREA OPEN TO THE THREAT OF DAILY
CONVECTION. MACHINE-LEARNING FORECASTS BASED ON THE EC AND GFS
KEEP THE DAILY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA AT
10-20% THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS.
FOR THIS REASON, THE HEAT HEADLINES (ADVISORY/WARNING) HAVE YET
TO BE EXTENDED. CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND A FRONT IN THE AREA
INTRODUCE TOO MANY VARIABLES FOR MUCH CERTAINTY IN TEMP
FORECASTS. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL BREAK IN THE HEAT
DUE TO UNEXPECTED CLOUD COVER, RAIN, OR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW,
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO HOT SUMMER
TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE (35-50%) OF PRECIP AS THE
REMNANTS OF TONIGHT'S WESTERN CONUS TROF FINALLY EJECTS EAST.
THINGS WILL COOL BEHIND THAT TROF. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
CHANCES AROUND 20-30% FROM 00Z-04Z, 40-60% FROM 04Z TO 10Z.
DIDN'T INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
TIMING AND LOCATION, BUT KOFK IS THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO SEE
STORMS.
STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TODAY WITH WINDS
TO 45 TO 53KT STARTING AROUND 1800FT. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH AS
WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND WINDS AT THE SURFACE INCREASE. WE'LL SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT.
WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
TO RETURN AT KOMA AND KLNK STARTING AROUND 04Z TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ052-053.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ015-034-044-045-
050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR IAZ056-069-079-
080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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