222
FXUS63 KOAX 091059
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
459 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING WET SURFACES FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS THIS MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE (15 TO 30%) FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXISTS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
- LINGERING CHANCES (15 TO 30%) FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COULD LEAD TO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. POP CHANCES (15 TO 20%) RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
09Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MAIN H5 LONGWAVE TROF DRAPED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. WITHIN THE TROF,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE OBSERVED, WITH YESTERDAY'S WAVE NOW PUSHING
INTO EASTERN IOWA. SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 991 MB SFC LOW FARTHER
TO THE EAST, WHILE THE RESULTANT DEFORMATION ZONE AND PRECIP BAND
HAS JUST EXITED FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE SLOWLY
STARTED TO WEAKEN GIVEN THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO DIPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CWA
ASIDE FROM FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THOSE GETTING READY TO COMMUTE THIS MORNING WILL WANT TO TAKE IT
SLOW ON THE ROADS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING BREEZINESS
SHOULD HELP COOL ROADS AND ELEVATED SFCS HELPING FREEZE ANY LEFTOVER
RAIN/PRECIP, LEADING TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
BEFORE AN H5 WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LONGWAVE TROF BASE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US LIFTING
EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND THE
RESULTANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE BULK OF IT STAYING IN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH FROM AROUND H9 TO H7. PROFILES FROM THE
HRRR STRUGGLE TO SATURATE MOST OF THE SFC TO H7 LAYER, WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS FROM THE RAP HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH SATURATION
EVENTUALLY BEING ACHIEVED. HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS (15 TO 30%) ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FROM 23Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY MORNING.
REGARDING PTYPE, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RAIN SNOW MIX. HOWEVER,
QPF AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES OVER OUR
VERY FAR SOUTH, SO NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER, LEFTOVER PRECIP/MOISTURE COULD EVENTUALLY FREEZE ON
ROADWAYS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY WILL WARM TO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST WITH LIGHT NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, AN H5 LOW WILL EJECT FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, FUSING WITH FRIDAY'S WAVE. THE
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG H8 COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH A 30 TO 40 KT JET
SURGES SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN 20 TO 25 MPH
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
INSTABILITY IMPLYING THE THREAT FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS.
COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS SO THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING H5 VORTICITY LOBE IN NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN POPS INCREASING PARTICULARLY OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE (15
TO 30%) WITH FLURRIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. POPS TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-80, WHILE LOW 40S ARE EXPECT
SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SFC RIDGING MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY WARM TO THE UPPER
40S ACROSS OUR FAR WEST WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN IOWA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN
APPROACHING H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE TRACKS EAST, HELPING WARM
TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO THE UPPER 40S IN WESTERN IOWA TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS OUR FAR WEST. THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP BRING IN A FEW DISTURBANCES
RESULTING IN LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND
THURSDAY (15-20%). LREF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN QPF PLACEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 12 KTS. THE VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE,
WHILE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AFTER 01Z BUT REMAIN UNDER 12
KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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