026
FXUS63 KOAX 061040
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
540 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RAIN-SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE (30-50% POPS) INTO MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME 1-3" ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR
POSSIBLE WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF SLIPPERY ROADS DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
IT WAS A QUIET AND FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 PM STILL HANGING IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WAS STARTING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL SEE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
AND PERHAPS EVEN ENOUGH SNOW FOR SOME SLICK ROADS. THE FIRST
CHANCES ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST IA AS LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY TRANSIENT
SATURATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING ON EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND HAVE A TOUGH TIME
STICKING. MAYBE A FEW SPOTS SEE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH,
MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIP FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL RAMP BACK UP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
BAND TO SET UP, WITH RAIN TO START AND SNOW MIXING IN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A 60-90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1"
IN THE CENTER OF THE BAND AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 3".
THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN EXACTLY WHERE
THAT BAND WILL SET UP WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM ALONG A
NORFOLK TO ATLANTIC LINE (KEEPING IT LARGELY NORTH OF OMAHA) TO
ALONG A COLUMBUS TO NEBRASKA CITY LINE (KEEPING IT LARGELY SOUTH
OF OMAHA, BUT IMPACTING LINCOLN) AND EVERYWHERE IN BETWEEN.
WE'LL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THINGS TREND, BUT EXPECT A BAND OF
AT LEAST 1-3" ABOUT THE WIDTH OF 2-3 COUNTIES FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHEREVER IT DOES FALL, EXPECT SLICK ROADS
AND A SLOW TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE GOOD NEWS IS
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S, SO IT
SHOULD MELT QUICKLY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A SECONDARY LOW MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. A SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT KEEPING SOME SHOWERS GOING TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOWS WILL THEN HELP TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ITS VICINITY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND
LEAD TO SOME INCREASED FIRE DANGER, PENDING PRECIP, THOUGH
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS THE DRIEST AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN OR SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA WHILE
SEVERAL BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECT OUT OF AN INCOMING TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONSENSUS
SHOWING BASICALLY A STANDING 40-70% CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S BEFORE THE FRONT LOOKS TO ADVANCE BACK NORTHWARD AND
WE SEE 60S AND 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AT TIMES WITH VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THOUGH OBVIOUSLY STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE SURFACE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD BECOME SUCCESSFUL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO THE KOFK
AREA JUST AFTER 12Z, WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH
16Z. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY GLANCE THE KOMA AREA, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page