107
FXUS63 KOAX 151011
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO JUST OVER 80 ARE ON TAP FOR
MONDAY, WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
AFTER 10 PM.
- OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA.
- WEDNESDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE HOT, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FORECAST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DESPITE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPINNING THROUGH ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER. IT WAS LEADING
TO SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NE
AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND MANY MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND. WE'LL STAY UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
HELPING TO WARM US UP A BIT COMPARED TO TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STORMS AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY
LIMITED, SO THEY SHOULDN'T BE TOO IMPACTFUL. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A QUIET DAY ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BY 7-8 AM.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS A
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT USHERING IN WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT
AND DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
LIMITING WARM SECTOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA TO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. IN FACT, MOST GUIDANCE
FAVORS STORM DEVELOPMENT STAYING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COMPLETELY.
STILL, INGREDIENTS WILL BE THERE FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
SO IF PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SLOWS AT ALL, OUR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL RAMP UP QUITE A BIT. IN ADDITION, THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
NORTHEAST NE, WHERE THEY HAVE MISSED OUT ON MUCH OF THE RECENT
RAINFALL. EPS MEAN WIND GUSTS ARE AROUND 40 MPH WHILE RH IS
PROGGED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S. OTHERWISE, PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S, BUT OF COURSE THIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WE TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS THAT NORTHEAST
NE/WEST-CENTRAL IA COULD BE CLIPPED BY SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/LIGHT RAIN, BUT AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED, IF
IT HAPPENS AT ALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY AND SHOULD WARM
US BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WE'LL ALSO SEE
PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
LOW SPINS UP OVER EASTERN CO AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO
THE AREA, WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALSO SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER,
STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON TIMING AND TRACK OF VARIOUS
FEATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
AROUND 0-5KTS THROUGH 16Z, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS. THE
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY; HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME EXPECTED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD KLNK AND KOMA. A COUPLE OF MODELS ARE TRYING TO
BRING THIS FURTHER NORTH TOWARD KOFK, BUT HELD OFF FROM PUTTING
THIS INTO PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE AFTER 02Z.
KOMA/KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 15Z AT KOMA AND 16-17Z AT KLNK, BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND
8-13KTS. EXPECT A FEW PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE, SO THE
MENTION WAS OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME
BEING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...ANW
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