750  
FXUS63 KOAX 131029  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
529 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- HOTTER TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.  
A BIT COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY MORNING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (40-60%), AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT (50-70%). A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO  
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025  
 
TODAY...  
 
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY 2 AM  
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARM, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS BLEW AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.  
 
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,  
POTENTIALLY BRINGING US THE WARMEST DAY LEFT BETWEEN NOW AND THE END  
OF THE YEAR. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S TODAY,  
WITH A STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS DRIVING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION.  
APPROPRIATELY, SEPTEMBER 13TH IS ALSO THE AVERAGE LAST DAY IN THE  
90S AT OMAHA OVER THE PERIOD OF RECORD. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60-70  
DEGREE RANGE WILL HOLD HEAT INDICES IN THE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
SUNDAY...  
 
THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST, AS A TROUGH  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KNOCK SUNDAYS HIGHS DOWN  
SLIGHTLY, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO  
EDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM COULD DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 30-45  
KTS COULD SUSTAIN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS, IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD  
COVER ALLOW FOR MORE POTENT MLCAPE TO DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG  
WIND GUSTS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS UNDERNEATH THE ANY  
STRONGER CELLS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...  
 
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES,  
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO DIP BEHIND THE DEPARTING  
SYSTEM, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER  
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID  
80S, BOTH DAYS.  
 
THE NEXT PUSH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
WARM ADVECTION COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,  
HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE  
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY COULD  
AGAIN DAMPEN INSTABILITY. A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND THE  
UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MAINTAIN ON AND OFF  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY.  
 
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE 70S WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, AND  
LIKELY REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS WILL WIND  
DOWN BY 15Z, WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL  
INCREASE TO OVER 12 KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25  
KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KG  
AVIATION...KG  
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