999
FXUS63 KOAX 142125
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEEK AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY AND 40S
AND 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WINDY THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 40 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST (50-80% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
QUIET AND CHILLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS WE REMAINED UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO
OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE STARTING TO RAMP UP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH, BUT TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM WERE STILL IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. SIMILARLY, WE'LL BE MUCH WARMER DURING THE DAY MONDAY
(HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EDGE
EASTWARD. WE'LL GAIN A FEW MORE DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S BOTH DAYS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT
EVENTUALLY EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED OVER OUR AREA, AND INSTEAD MOST OF THAT PRECIP FALLS TO
OUR EAST (AND NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW). THAT SAID, QUITE A FEW
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF
(LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES) IN OUR AREA, SO WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME
15- 20% CHANCES. WE'LL SEE IF IT'S ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR.
THE BIGGER DEAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS. WHILE
IT'LL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30 MPH, MUCH STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. EPS SHOWS MEAN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50+ MPH
ACROSS THE AREA. AND WHILE GEFS MEMBERS ARE A LITTLE LESS
AGGRESSIVE, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS (FOR WHATEVER THEY'RE WORTH THIS
FAR OUT) DO SHOW AROUND 50+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT PLAN ON
A WINDY DAY ON THURSDAY.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WON'T BE QUITE THE
PLUNGE WE SAW THIS WEEKEND, AS DAYTIME TEMPS THURSDAY WILL
STICK IN THE 20S AND 30S (THOUGH MOSTLY FALLING). WE'LL RETURN
TO THE 40S AND PERHAPS 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY AT SOME POINT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-24 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
AT 1500 FT AGL OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 45 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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