185
FXUS63 KOAX 271039
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OF 1
MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 80, WITH AMOUNTS TOPING OUT AT HALF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A BUSY MID-TO-UPPER AIR
PATTERN, WITH SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WHILE POTENT SHORTWAVES BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THE PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ARE COMBINING TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL AND COOLER CONDITIONS USHERED IN BY
A COLD FRONT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE IN
PLACE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS REMAIN IN
PLACE, RESULTING IN ENOUGH LIFT IN THE LOW-LEVELS TO CONTINUE
DRIZZLE AND SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AWOS STATIONS AND CAMERAS IN THE AREA HAVE SHOWN VALUES OF
AROUND A MILE AT TIMES, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW, A BIT OF LIFE WILL RETURN TO THE
RADAR SCREEN AS THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS ASSOCIATED PVA
AND HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AT ABOUT HALF
AN INCH OR LESS, WITH THE CENTER OF THAT BAND REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF
OMAHA AND LINCOLN. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS AND LINGERING CLOUDS AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
60S DESPITE INCREASING SUN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AREAS NEAR
INTERSTATE 80 AND POINTS SOUTH WILL HOLD ONTO A SATURATED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, WITH MANY OF THE CAMS HINTING AT SOME DRIZZLE/DREARY
CONDITIONS THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WHICH IS UNDER-REPRESENTED IN THE NBM. THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOWER VISIBILITY
VALUES AND SOME ADDITIONAL DAMPENING TO THE GROUND AS TEMPS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL SEE THE MID/UPPER PATTERN RETURN TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
WITH SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A
RIBBON OF WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS AND INCREASED MOISTURE IS ABLE
TO REACH THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE GREAT PLAINS. WE'LL BE
RIGHT IN THE PATH OF A SHIFTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT GETS NUDGED
NORTH AND SOUTH BY SHORTWAVES THAT DUMP OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST, RESULTING IN MINOR, BUT
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER HIGHS FROM TUESDAY
TURN WARM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLIES DEVELOP,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH BEING DEPICTED BY EPS MEMBERS IN A
NARROW DISTRIBUTION, HELPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES AT FALLS CITY. A WEAK FRONT DRAGS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY, COOLING HIGHS A BIT AS THE MAIN SYSTEM SHOOTS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT FRONTAL ZONE THEN LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY SLATED FOR THE 60S
AND 70S AS RAIN AND CLOUD COVER MAKE OR BREAK ANY ONE LOCATION'S
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THOUGH MODELS DEPICT QPF THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, OUR MOST MEANINGFUL SLUG OF MOISTURE
DEVELOPS IN THE WAA REGION OF A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER
0.5-1" OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, OUR EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON A
QUICKLY-DEEPENING CUTOFF LOW THAT CENTERS ITSELF OVER KANSAS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD, SLOWING DOWN AS IT
SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. IT'LL BRING WITH
IT INCREASING WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT JUST
DON'T GET COLD ENOUGH TO BRING IN OUR FIRST SNOWFALL CHANCES (AT
LEAST WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS). THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A
MUDDY SET OF DAYS THAT FARMERS MAY WANT TO BEAT IF THEY DON'T WANT
TO WORK IN SOGGY FIELDS, SOAKED BY 1-2" OF RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KOFK: CEILINGS REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD; HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE TERMINAL.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTH BY 17Z.
KOMA: A COUPLE OF RAIN BANDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 15Z. COULD CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES TO 17Z OR 18Z, BUT THE CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS TRANSITION TO
THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER 15-20%
CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 02Z
AND 05Z.
KLNK: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE SET UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. ONE OF THESE
BANDS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM KHJH TO KLNK. EXPECT RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15-20%)
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ANW
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