738
FXUS63 KOAX 171829
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
- A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES (15-30%) AND SPORADIC GUSTS OF 40 TO 50+ MPH.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON TRACK TO BREAK OR TIE
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CURRENTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS AFTERNOON
STARTS OFF OUR ACTIVE WEATHER WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. A POTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
HELP TO MAKE CONDITIONS VERY DRY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RESULTING IN RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO SOAR WELL INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, CHALLENGING OR BREAKING MANY RECORDS IN
THE PROCESS. THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A FRONT ARRIVES THIS
EVENING, THIS BRINGS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF RAIN WITH IT. WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS, VERY LITTLE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE AND THIS MAY INSTEAD SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50+ MPH DUE TO VIRGA. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING EFFICIENTLY. VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NEGLIGIBLE
MOISTURE RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASE BEHIND
TONIGHTS SYSTEM, BUT GUSTY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
AREAWIDE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S REMAIN.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND
MARK THE RETURN OF SNOW TO THE FORECAST AFTER A PROLONGED
HIATUS. COOLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SEES RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(50-70%) IS FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. THAT SAID, ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NARROW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW APPRECIABLE SPREAD BETWEEN RUNS AND MODELS ON THE TRACK
OF THIS HEAVIER BAND. AT THIS TIME, WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BAND SETS UP, SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
RESULTING IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT TRAVEL IMPACTS WOULD BE LESSER. LOOK FOR CONTINUED
UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH SNOW POTENTIAL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH ANY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS
TIME, THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THAT SAID, A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
ACCUMULATIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD PRECIPITATION REACH THIS FAR NORTH. THIS
ADDITIONAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
THE PATTERN SETTLES DOWN A BIT BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS. A FRONT SWINGS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND LLWS IS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AT OMA AND LNK. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
EXTREME FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH CLOUDS QUICK TO CLEAR LATE THIS MORNING. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15% TO 30% AND WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF EVEN HIGHER WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH WITH A FRONT THIS EVENING. VIRGA
SHOWERS AND VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE
SURFACE WIND GUSTS ALONG THIS FRONT. VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER LINGERS LATE THIS EVENING WITH NEGLIGIBLE RECOVERY AND
GUSTY WINDS WEAKENING SLOWLY. THIS WOULD CAUSE FIRE CONTROL
CONCERNS SHOULD ANY FIRES REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-
016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
FIRE WEATHER...CHEHAK
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