122
FXUS63 KOAX 230427
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS REACH THE 50S TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT 15 TO 20% CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- MID 60S TO LOW 70S RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS DO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. NEXT BEST CHANCE (15-30%) FOR
PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1029 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN SPEED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO, AND SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH BY 12Z AS THE FEATURE MOVES OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AN H5 SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL LIFT IN
TANDEM WITH WEAK H8-H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS SEEN FROM THE VARIOUS CAM
GUIDANCE, BUT MUCH OF THIS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SFC. FORECAST
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SUGGESTING DRY AIR BELOW 3KM BEING THE
CULPRIT FOR THE DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DO SUGGEST BETTER SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS. HAVE KEPT A BAND
OF LOW POPS OF 15 TO 20% FOR RAIN/SPRINKLES STARTING AFTER 15Z
ACROSS OUR WEST. POPS SHOULD TRACK EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
AND WILL LARGELY EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE
OVERCAST SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS COOL
TO THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
WESTERN IOWA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST TOO WITH ONLY SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 80S AREAWIDE, WHILE AREAS OVER OUR FAR SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER MAY HIT 90F. DESPITE THE 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS, WARM AND
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE CURED FUELS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SWINGS THROUGH, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 30 TO 35 MPH NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE EPS MEMBERS, SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA TOO
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THESE CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING AT LEAST SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND EXTREMELY CURED FUELS, WILL
STILL SEE AREAWIDE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DO INCREASE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80 (15 TO 30% CHANCE). TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY ONLY WARM TO THE 50S. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES BEGIN EXPANDING AND PUSHING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN. HIGHS REBOUND SATURDAY TO THE 60S, WHILE
70S ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS
WILL PASS BY AROUND FL015 DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE POSSIBLE. AN OVERCAST MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL
PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE) AS THIS CLOUD DECK MOVES IN, THOUGH A DRY
SUB- CLOUD LAYER LEAVES VIRGA AS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...WOOD
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