055
FXUS63 KOAX 032253
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
553 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS REACH THE LOW 90S WITH SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE SKIES.
- BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER (60-80% CHANCE).
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY (30-60% CHANCE) AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY (60-80%) CHANCE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW, STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW 90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H5 RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CONUS. TO OUR NORTHWEST, A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA HAS INDUCED A SFC LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO THE 80S, WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE LOW 90S UNDER SMOKEY SKIES. SOME BROAD H7 WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE SFC SO HAVE LEFT
FORECAST DRY.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL KINEMATIC
FORCING INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT SHOULD HELP FIRE OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING
THIS ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 03Z, BUT IT LARGELY
WEAKENS AS INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPEAR MARGINAL. POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND CLIP FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BIT MORE ABUNDANT (1500 J/KG) ALONG
WITH SHEAR. POPS REMAIN AT 20 TO 30% FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TONIGHT, WHILE 60 TO 80% POPS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS ANOTHER
H5 WAVE AND THE FRONT LINGERS (30-60% CHANCE). WHILE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR APPEARS ABUNDANT AT 35 TO EVEN 50 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WITH INSTABILITY OF
AROUND 1,000 J/KG AND POOR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 5 TO 6 DEG C/KM. THE
INSTABILITY ALSO DOESN'T APPEAR ALIGNED WITH THE BEST 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 70S BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF IT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN LONGWAVE
WEDNESDAY, TRAVERSING THE AREA. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
(60-80%). HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS
OVER THE AREA, WHICH WITH THE CONTINUED RIPE ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL (PWATS OF 1.9 INCHES, WCD OF 4000M), THIS MAY
LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE WPC CURRENTLY HAS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA HIGHLIGHTED FOR A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY, STORM TOTAL QPF WILL
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH PRIMARILY ALONG THE
PLATTE RIVER AREA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LEADING UP TO SATURDAY, SHOULD SEE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFY AND PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM BACK TO THE LOW 90S BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW AREAS
IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SEEING HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOW 100S. SATURDAY COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE EJECTS TOWARDS THE PLAINS AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY
TO NORTHERLY AROUND 06-10Z. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WE COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE
SO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF AND/OR WHEN THEY WILL IMPACT ANY
TERMINALS. THERE IS A WINDOW FROM 08-12Z WHEN KOFK COULD SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS (20% CHANCE). THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WINDOW FOR
ALL THE TERMINALS FROM 18Z-00Z WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MCCOY
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