645
FXUS63 KOAX 201717
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VERY
HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
AREA THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING CLOSER TO 30 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 60S AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECAME GUSTY, REACHING SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH BY
NOON TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON, DROPPING RH TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH A FEW POCKETS OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD, INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
ONLY FALL TO THE MID 40S AND 50S TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, SQUASHING
ANY FEARS OF FROST/FREEZE. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. A SURFACE HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENING WINDS AND LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW
WILL DRIVE AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SPEEDS OF 15-25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND BREEZY WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN PUSHING A STRONG TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS MID TO LATE-WEEK. ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS,
INCLUDING TIMING, REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS CURRENTLY HINT
AT A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OR NEAR THE
FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY (TO OUR WEST) AND THURSDAY (TO THE EAST),
WITH SPC ALSO HIGHLIGHTING A 15% RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF COOL-DOWN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND ONCE AGAIN, THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 TO 20
KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KT. LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 12 KTS OR LESS SHORTLY AFTER 10Z, BUT BECOME GUSTY
ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page