311
FXUS63 KOAX 131040
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
540 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY WEST OF LINE
FROM LINCOLN TO NORFOLK. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30
MPH AND HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 15 TO 30 PERCENT.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S) ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR
THIS EVENING IN NORTH PLATTE'S CWA. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS; HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY CUTTING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA UP INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID-80S ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING US STAYING DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE A CONCERN,
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM VERDIGRE TO NORFOLK TO CRETE. THESE AREAS WITH
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. A COUPLE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO BRING WINDS UP TO NEAR RFW
CRITERIA IN THOSE AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND 80S BEHIND THE FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW
OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA,
STRENGTHENING ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK AND EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY WILL GIVE US A CHANCE TO
DRY OUT A BIT BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE SET UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION,
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN
IOWA. SUBJECT TO CHANGE, THE BEST CHANCE RIGHT NOW FOR STORMS WOULD
BE ALONG AND EAST OF AN OMAHA TO LINCOLN LINE.
EXPECT SOME COOLER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z
AT OMA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. OFK WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA
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