161
FXUS63 KOAX 011751
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%) SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY
NOON. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE GROUND JUST TO
THE WEST AND EAST OF OUR BORDERS. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS,
GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH, DROVE DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO
20-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, THANKFULLY LOCAL GREEN UP HAS
HELPED MITIGATE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 29-32 DEGREES, NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO ONAWA,IA.
SOUTH OF THAT LINE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. THUS, A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA, WITH A FROST ADVISORY
IN EFFECT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY THROUGH THE DAY, SATURDAY, AS
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS WARM AIR INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH MID 60S OVER WESTERN IOWA.
A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD WORK IT'S WAY INTO
WESTERN IOWA, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST. WARMER AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS LIMITED TO THE
MID AND UPPER 40S, SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW 70S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, AND APPROACH 80 NEAR THE
NE/KS BORDER, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
SIMILARLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES (20-
40%) WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, AS A CUT
OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. A BOUNDARY LYING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH WILL BE THE FOCUS POINT FOR PRECIPITATION, BRINGING
HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WHILE
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK SUPER LIKELY AT THIS
TIME, WE WILL TAKE WHATEVER MINOR AMOUNTS WE CAN GET.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT OF A DIP EARLY TO MID WEEK,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FROSTY MORNING OR TWO
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY AFTERNOON FL040
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z. SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE DIRECTION BECOMING VARIABLE AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL BECOME WNW BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, AT SPEEDS
OF 5-10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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