093
FXUS63 KOAX 011829
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
129 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK KEEPING WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
SUNNY SKIES HAVE HELPED PUSH TEMPS CLOSE TO 85F BY 1:00 PM. AN
OLD FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTH ON THE WEST OF THE FRONT AND WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE FOUND
EAST OF IT. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS A CUT- OFF LOW SPINNING
OVER MONTANA WITH SOME RIDGING OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN THE H5 LOW
AND ANOTHER TROF DIGGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S, HEAT INDICES ARE 3-6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE WHAT THE
THERMOMETER READS.
THE REMNANTS OF AN MCC PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST MAY HAVE
ENOUGH CAPE (3000 J/KG) TO MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS IT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA. SHEAR IS UNDERWHELMING AT 25 KNOTS. STILL, A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHERN IOWA MANAGED A ROGUE SEVERE STORM
EARLIER THIS MORNING. CAMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOLUTIONS OF A
COUPLE OF QUICK CELLS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN IOWA AROUND 4PM THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOAR. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME
10-30% POPS IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY AFTERNOON IS MOST
LIKELY.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER MCV
OVERNIGHT (2AM?). IT'LL DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN THE FRONT RANGE
/ PANHANDLE AREA AND MOVE EAST, WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSOURI RIVER. EACH THREAT (BOTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF 1" HAIL OR 60 MPH WINDS.
TUESDAY
YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS WILL BE #10 IN A ROW
OF OMAHA MANAGING AT LEAST 80F.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE H5 LOW OUT WEST, BRINGING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE AREA. PLACEMENT AND
TIMING ARE NEBULOUS, BUT BEST CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE MISSOURI
AND IN THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES AREN'T GREAT AND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING, SO MAYBE WE'LL SEE A PULSE STORM OR TWO. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY. AND WOULDN'T YOU KNOW IT, MODELS ARE TRYING TO
BRING ANOTHER MCS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS EAST, THE STRONG MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POINTED AT NEBRASKA AND IOWA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD DRIVE DEWPOINTS A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MAKING THE HEAT FEEL A
LITTLE STICKIER. THESE DAYS WILL BRING SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS
OF THE WEEK (70% WEST WEDNESDAY AND 60-80% FOR EVERYONE
THURSDAY.) AS OF NOW, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS WEST OF
HERE.
THE WEEKEND
IT LOOKS LIKE THE STREAK OF 80F+ DAYS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE IN OMAHA AS TEMPS CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS EAST (LOTS OF SOLUTIONS AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW FAST), WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN EXPECTED
TO EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN EVEN
WARMER PATTERN AS WE GET DEEPER INTO JUNE. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY PUTS OMAHA'S ODDS OF BEING WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR JUNE 6-10 AT 71%. THE ODDS OF HITTING 90F FOR
MOST OF THE DAYS OF WEEK 2 (JUNE 8-14) RUN FROM 25-40% (CPC).
IT'S METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD WITH NO THUNDER
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED INCREASED
CHANCES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVE IN WESTERN IOWA (30%) BUT
BELIEVE THOSE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY MISS KOMA TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS MOSTLY AT 5-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. THEY'LL PICK UP SOME SPEED TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
OF UP TO 20 KNOTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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