250
FXUS63 KOAX 261824
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
124 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO
NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY AND INTO MONDAY. A
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP INDUCE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. BY 7 AM, STORMS BEGAN
FIRING OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
AND CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER, A FEW
STORMS NORTH OF THE BORDER MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS, THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND MID NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA, BRINGING THE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MAIN THREATS, WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY TRAINING STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD BRING INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY TO URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THEREFORE, A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OUR THIRD AND FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO STEM
FROM A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF LOW
PRESSURE, JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, AND INTERACTING
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
ROUND, INSTABILITY COULD BE LACKING EARLY MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER A
STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA, NEAR THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND WHERE
SHEAR VECTORS ARE STRONGEST.
STORMS FINALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY EVENING. LOOKING
AHEAD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY BRING US OFF
AND ON LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING THE
TAF SITES AROUND 20Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN 07-10Z. A FEW STORMS IN EACH
ROUND MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OFF AND
ON STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ068-090>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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