421
FXUS63 KOAX 192025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 60S
UNDER SUNNY SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL US, SATURDAY, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, DRAPING A SURFACE
FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY LOW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, NEAR THE KS BORDER, WITH A MAXIMUM MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST
KS. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AND ML CAPE COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHEAST NE BY 00Z MONDAY. BULK SHEAR
FROM 0-6 KM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE, WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. A STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY
BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING, THEY COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA, WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KS/NE
BORDER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA. SEVERE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
NORTHEAST NE AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA, MONDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2019
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MILLER
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