756
FXUS63 KOAX 041046
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
546 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-70%), ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH HAIL AND
WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A
BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS, WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, THOUGH THE
PASSAGE HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ROSE
INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAG RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECAY BEFORE REACHING THE
AREA, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY APPROACH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH THE COLLAPSING SHOWERS. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 15%.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S.
MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, HELPING TO PUSH A
MORE POTENT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH BEFORE
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. VALUES IN THE LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80 ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. BULK SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REACH 35-40 KTS WITH MUCAPE TOPPING OUT AROUND 750-
1000 J/KG, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL (UP TO 1.25") AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS (UP TO 65 MPH). THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE FRONT IS
LOCATED BY THE TIME CONVECTION INITIATION OCCURS. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE KEEPS STORMS CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH POPS
CURRENTLY PEAKING AT 50-70%. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 0.20" IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, DECREASING NORTHWARD.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BY ENCOMPASSED BY ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND CONTINUED CAA WILL BE
FELT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DIFFUSE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA,
PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE POPS LINGER AT 30%.
FROST POTENTIAL WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S, INCREASING TO THE WIDESPREAD 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A FEW ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (POPS 15-30%) PERSIST
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH DRY
PERIODS WILL LARGELY OUTNUMBER WET ONES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL GUST OCCASIONALLY AT 25 KNOTS. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE
ADDED SHOWERS TO THE KLNK TAF AT 11PM. KOMA AND KOFK ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY. SOME THUNDER IS EXPECTED, SO THIS MAY NEED TO BE
CHANGED TO -TSRA WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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