053
FXUS63 KOAX 150431
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019
SYNTHESIS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 3
PM PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER
CENTRAL IA GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARLAN, IA TO TEKAMAH TO
WAYNE. THOSE DATA INDICATE THE BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH WHILE
WEAKENING, AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THAT FEATURE TO FOCUS RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONSIDERABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA, SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000+ J/KG.
INSPECTION OF EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH
NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISMS FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE A
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
KS, COINCIDENT WITH STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND MODEST LOW-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE. AND, RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION IN WHICH A BROKEN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS IN THAT GENERAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER
THAT SCENARIO, SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NE AS
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN
THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR, THE SETUP WOULD FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
ASIDE FROM THE SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE THREAT, THE PRIMARY WEATHER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WHICH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM SUNDAY - TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THAT FRONT WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER, THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL DATA THAT A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019
TSRA MAY LINGER AROUND THE KOMA AREA FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER THAT, LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR FOG ARE HIGHEST AROUND KOFK AND KOMA. FOG COULD LAST
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY, THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...MILLER
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