989  
FXUS63 KOAX 181138  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
638 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE REGION HELPED SPUR CONVECTION OVER  
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EARLY MORNING. AT  
THE SURFACE, A FRONT CONTINUED TO WAFFLE ACROSS NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH OF  
THE FRONT, WITH 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND  
SOUTHWEST IOWA.  
 
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHUFFLE SOUTH TODAY, AND  
EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE-80. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREEP INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW  
STORMS COULD PRODUCE A BIT OF HAIL, GIVEN AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF  
POTENTIAL ENERGY AND MODEST SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES IN  
FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FURTHER  
SOUTH, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO  
DOMINATE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A  
LINE FROM DAVID CITY TO OMAHA TO OAKLAND, IA. THAT'S 10 TO 15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA  
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST CAM RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED A MORE  
NORTHERN TRACK TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA  
DRY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TOMORROW,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE HIGHS  
WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE LOW 90S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS  
THURSDAY, AIDING IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND FINALLY  
PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
BECOME LIKELY, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE  
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
RETURN FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS NORTHERLY FLOW FILLS  
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY. IT WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH HIGHS  
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RELATIVELY COOL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT  
EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LONG TERM  
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PENDULUM WILL SWING BACK THE OTHER WAY  
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
RETURN TO THE GREAT PLAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2018  
 
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE NEAR KOFK THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING  
IN VARIABLE WINDS. KLNK AND KOMA REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE IN THE VICINITY  
OF KOFK 14-21Z. KLNK/KOMA REMAIN DRY. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KG  
LONG TERM...KG  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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