332
FXUS63 KOAX 040501
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1101 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
DIMINISH. MOST SEE FRIGID LOWS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10F BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20F ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY MORNING AS WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE AGAIN.
- DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS WARM TO
THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRIDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SNOW EXISTS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SFC COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG H8 COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY
HAVING REACHED THEIR HIGHS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TRAILING SFC
HIGH CURRENTLY IN THE DAKOTAS HAS KEPT PESKY STRATUS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS TOO, WHILE SUNSHINE IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN RATHER BREEZY WITH MOST SEEING
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
LOOKING ALOFT, RAP 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AT H5 SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROF ACROSS ONTARIO EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
DESPITE MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SUN THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL. WINDS WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PESKY STRATUS
SHOULD ERODE TOO RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO HAVE
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM NBM GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE FRIGID LOWS IN THE 0 TO -10F RANGE, AND
RECORDS MAY POTENTIALLY BE BROKEN AT LINCOLN (-3F RECORD LOW IN
1902). WINDS SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO -20F PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THOSE WHO PLAN TO VENTURE OUTSIDE TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD PLAN TO
BUNDLE UP.
EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE
COLD AIR WILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ARE FORECAST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR SERVICE AREA (LOW 30S) AS H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS GIVEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE CHILLY, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOW
TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
H5 NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
ROUNDING THE BASE OF MORE POTENT LONGWAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO EJECTS SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED TOO,
SO HAVE KEPT LATEST NBM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY SHOULD BE WARMER WITH MOST SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND MAYBE PUSHING 40F ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGES.
THE PARENT H5 LONGWAVE TROF SHOULD HELP INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO, AND THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM SAID FEATURE SHOULD
EXTEND WELL SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE AT OUR DOORSTEP BY FRIDAY NIGHT, CROSSING THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. WITH MORE H8 COLD AIR ADVECTION FUNNELING IN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DIP ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, AND MID 30S NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE WYOMING/MONTANA AREA TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEYS IN ON A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WITH THE
FEATURE, BUT QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD EXISTS WITH WHERE THE SFC LOW
WILL TRACK. NOTABLY, THE EPS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE MOST SPREAD WITH THE
SFC LOW TRACK, POTENTIALLY TAKING THE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA,
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF GEFS AND CMC ENSEMBLES KEEP THE SFC LOW WELL
WEST OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE LOW TRACK, H7-H5 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND IMPLIED LIFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND SFC FEATURE SHOULD
HAVE SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN A 20 TO 40% CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING LOCATIONS IN WHERE THE SNOW BAND WILL
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME AS EXPECTED, LIKELY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF SAID LOW. REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, LATEST LREF SUITE
SUGGESTS MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH AT BEST,
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DETAILS REGARDING THIS
DISTURBANCE TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS, SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS WE'LL BE BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH MOST SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FRIGID IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AGAIN TO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES INCREASE AND
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, BUT A
THIN BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS PASSING OVER LNK CURRENTLY. THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITE. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH CLEARING SKIES. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING, SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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