648
FXUS63 KOAX 031037
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
537 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE (30-60%) IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF FROST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES KEEPS THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS UNDER PREDOMINATELY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS. WITH THIS REGIME, LIMITED RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES SWINGING BETWEEN ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL
BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. LET'S BREAK THIS DOWN INTO MORE
DETAIL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THOUGH THIS
DOES LITTLE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SUNDAY SEES TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 70S DESPITE A NORTH WIND. HEADING
INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE HIGHEST (30-60%) CHANCE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AS A RESULT. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN SHOULD ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE LIKELY AS A RESULT. LOW (10-30%) RAIN
CHANCES MAY LINGER AS A SEPARATE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO COLD MORNINGS WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF FROST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SUBTLE RIDGING UNDER THE CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 60S
AND INTO THE 70S WITH MORE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
LLWS IS COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING AS WINDS AT FL015 HAVE
BEGUN TO SLOW AND COME INTO LINE WITH SURFACE WINDS. A BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED AT KOFK. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH-NORHTWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY 15Z AT KOMA/KLNK.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET.
SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID-DAY WITH CLOUDS
HANGING MOSTLY BETWEEN FL150 AND FL250.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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