883
FXUS63 KOAX 251639
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (60-80% CHANCE). A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND
OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING REVEALS
A CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, BRINGING
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THE AREA REMAINS
BISECTED BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80. IN THIS AREA, DEW POINTS WILL PULL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 600-
1000 J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A LOT TO BE
DESIRED IN TERMS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, INGREDIENTS REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS
(POPS 60-80%). ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL (UP TO 1-
1.25") AND STRONG WIND GUSTS (UP TO 60 MPH). STORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DWINDLING
QUICK AFTER 9 PM. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (POPS 30%).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SASKATCHEWAN LOW, TRANSITIONING IT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY
BY EARLY MONDAY. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DRAWS
INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN TWO SEPARATE
ROUNDS. THE INITIAL ROUND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. STORM MODE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND APPEARS
TO BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH AM EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR TWO
POSSIBLE, THOUGH CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES
IN THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ROUND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT UNDER ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. WHILE MODEL
HODOGRAPHS DO BRING SOME FAVORABLE LOW- LEVEL CURVATURE, STORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD, SOMEWHAT
LIMITING TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PULLS INTO
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE, DRAGGING THE WARM SECTOR UP INTO THE
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS
REGION ALONG WITH HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL AND POTENTIALLY
EVEN A TORNADO A TWO WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS IT PULLS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80, ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF WIND
AND HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. POPS REMAIN IN THE 90-100%
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER CONCERN TO MONITOR WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA WHERE TRAINING STORMS ARE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1.20-1.50 INCHES, ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE APRIL. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 0.75-1.25", WITH HEAVIER POCKETS (2-3"+) EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, LEAVING US GENERALLY IN
ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEK (POPS 20-40%) AND KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. NO DAY CURRENTLY STANDS OUT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS PRESENT TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (75% CHANCE)
THAT EACH TERMINAL WILL SEE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME REFINEMENTS LIKELY NEEDED ON THE EXACT
TIMING. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE AFTER 26/00-02Z, WITH A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (30% CHANCE). MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WILL PUSH INTO KOFK AFTER 26/00Z, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL REACH KLNK OR KOMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BEGINNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A FRONT AND EVENTUALLY
BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS,
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 12-18 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE IN JUST AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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