053  
FXUS63 KOAX 150431  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1131 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
SYNTHESIS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 3  
PM PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER  
CENTRAL IA GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARLAN, IA TO TEKAMAH TO  
WAYNE. THOSE DATA INDICATE THE BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH WHILE  
WEAKENING, AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER SUFFICIENTLY DEEP  
CONVERGENCE EXISTS ALONG THAT FEATURE TO FOCUS RENEWED STORM  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONSIDERABLE  
BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING IS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON  
ACROSS EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA, SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF  
2000-3000+ J/KG.  
 
INSPECTION OF EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH  
NO REAL INDICATION OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISMS FARTHER  
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE A  
DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL  
KS, COINCIDENT WITH STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND MODEST LOW-  
LEVEL CONFLUENCE. AND, RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE  
IS NOW CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION IN WHICH A BROKEN BAND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS IN THAT GENERAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER  
THAT SCENARIO, SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS  
EVENING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NE AS  
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. GIVEN  
THE MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND A VERTICALLY VEERING  
WIND PROFILE WITH AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR, THE SETUP WOULD FAVOR  
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE THREAT, THE PRIMARY WEATHER  
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WHICH  
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN  
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM SUNDAY - TUESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF THAT FRONT WILL  
SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING  
THAT TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER, THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL  
IN MODEL DATA THAT A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE  
WESTERN U.S. WHICH WOULD PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
 
TSRA MAY LINGER AROUND THE KOMA AREA FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN SHOULD  
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AFTER THAT, LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS  
EXCEPT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR FOG LATER TONIGHT.  
CHANCES FOR FOG ARE HIGHEST AROUND KOFK AND KOMA. FOG COULD LAST  
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY, THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MEAD  
LONG TERM...MEAD  
AVIATION...MILLER  
 
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