751  
FXUS63 KOAX 200437  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
MAIN FEATURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CLOSED LOW MIGRATING  
ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER WITH A MIX OF PRECIP EXPANDING ACROSS WY.  
SURFACE REFLECTION WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN KS WITH ATTENDANT  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST NE TO NORTHERN MN.  
 
MODELS IN AGREEMENT PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD  
OUT OF THE NE PANHANDLE/WESTERN SD EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXPAND  
ACROSS THE REST OF SD AS WELL AS NORTHERN NE. RAP/HRRR TIME THE  
PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN CWA TOWARD MIDNIGHT.SPC HAS PLACED US  
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST RAP SUGGESTS  
COMPOSITE PARAMETERS INCLUDING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL NOT BE  
MAXIMIZED OVER OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT  
SERIOUS DOUBT AND SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. BUT CANNOT  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL.  
 
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR SO BY  
EVENTS END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AMOUNTS TO  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.05" TO 0.10".  
 
OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS FILLING IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL  
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY PERIOD THEN FROM  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS STILL HINTING PRECIP  
CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A  
SYSTEM EJECTING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HAVE NOTED THAT IF THE  
LATEST GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS VERIFY, NEXT WEEKENDS STORMS MAY BE MORE  
INTENSE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  
 
WED - MID 50S/LOWER 60S  
THU - MID/UPPER 50S  
FRI - LOW 60S  
SAT - LOW/MID 60S  
SUN - MID 60S/LOW 70S  
MON -UPPER 60S/LOW 70S  
TUE - MID 70S  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2021  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 08Z. IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOFK.  
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN  
(VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 TO 3 SM AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 1,500 FT  
AGL). ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION  
BETWEEN 10Z AND 22Z WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER.  
AWAY FROM THE RAIN, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KOMA NORTH  
BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY.  
 
MIXED WINDS, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED REGION WIDE  
THROUGH 10Z WEDNESDAY. THEN A RAPID TRANSITION TO WEST NORTHWEST  
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECTED  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 14 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 28 KT BETWEEN  
15Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DEE  
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT  
 
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