850
FXUS63 KOAX 131749
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
- EXPECT OCCASIONAL MORNING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
I'LL DO MY BEST NOT TO MENTION THE GINORMOUS RIDGE DOMINATING
THE CENTRAL CONUS TOO OFTEN IN THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 1023 HPA SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY
WIND OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY UNDER THE SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST
OF THE OMAHA METRO MID-DAY. THESE CLOUD STREETS ALIGN WITH WIND
DIRECTION SO THOSE CLOSER TO GRAND ISLAND ARE NEARLY EXACTLY
POLEWARD. THOSE BY SIOUX CITY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND
THOSE NEAR KANSAS HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT. IN OTHER WORDS, IF
YOU SQUINT, YOU CAN MAKE OUT THE CLOCKWISE SPIN OF THE AREA'S
WINDS.
ALREADY TEMPS ARE IN THE MID-80S WITH HEAT INDICES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70F.
TUESDAY.
WITH VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE DEWPOINTS AND WIND
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW-LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE HIGH TEMP IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOUT THREE DEGREES HIGHER THAN IT WILL TODAY, LEAVING LOW-90S
FOR MOST, AND NEARING THE CENTURY MARK ALONG THE SD BORDER.
LONGER RANGE
THE HEAT LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING ANOTHER
THREE DEGREES OR SO, LEAVING ACTUAL MAXIMUMS IN THE MIDDLE- TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.
EACH DAYS HEAT INDICES ARE FALLING SHY OF THE 105F THRESHOLD FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY. NMB'S PROBABILITIES OF HITTING THAT THRESHOLD
(105 HEAT INDEX) IS HIGHEST IN THE OMAHA METRO AND ALONG THE SD
BORDER.
PROBABILITY OF HITTING 105 HEAT INDEX IN OMAHA:
FRIDAY: 8%
SATURDAY: 15%
SUNDAY: 25%
MONDAY: 8%
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THESE NUMBERS HAVE SLIPPED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO A CONCERN AS THURSDAY NIGHT,
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID-70S.
THIS THRESHOLD BRINGS A MARKED INCREASE IN HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OVER CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, TOO. WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL, THE 'RING
OF FIRE' KEEPS CONVECTION FIRING MOSTLY OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE
CANADIAN BORDER.
ARE YOU LOOKING FOR A HINTS AS TO WHEN THE HEAT WILL BREAK? THE
CANADIAN AND GFS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LEAVING HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY. THE EC
BRINGS IT IN A LITTLE LATER ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY AFFECTING
MONDAY'S HIGHS. THIS BRINGS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF RAIN... IF
YOU'RE DESPERATE. THE NBM'S TEMPS ARE PROBABLY A BIT HIGH FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT I'VE LEFT THEM UNCHANGED FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THIS FAR OUT, BUT MVFR
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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