730
FXUS63 KOAX 110458
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 80S, FOLLOWED BY
SOME 90S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY (10%) AND HIT AND MISS CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND (15-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING FEATURES A FAMILIAR MID/UPPER
PATTERN, WITH TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD, AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LOOKING LOCALLY, THE BANK OF CLOUDS SPURRED ON BY WARM AIR
ADVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS SINCE FALLEN APART AND
CONTINUED ITS MOVE TO THE SOUTH. IT WAS ABLE TO MUSTER A FEW
OBSERVATIONS OF TRACE MOISTURE, BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED AS THE
SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY NEAR 700 MB HAS VANISHED, ALLOWING
THE CLOUD FIELD TO DISSIPATE. A SLOW- MOVING WIND SHIFT/WEAK
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA,
GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTH WHILE FACILITATING CALM AND VARIABLE
NIGHTTIME WINDS THAT WILL WORK TO INCREASE COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THINGS START TO GET MORE INTERESTING TOMORROW AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A TALL AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, DRIVING DOWN SURFACE MOISTURE AND WORKING DOWNWARD
COLUMNAR WINDS THAT ARE STRONGEST NEAR 750 MB. HIGHS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TOP OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, DRIVING MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES TO THE UPPER TEENS TO TWENTIES WHILE GUSTS REACH
30 MPH DURING THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS
DELAY FOR A BIT, BEFORE A JET STREAK TO THE NORTH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW COMES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST
AREA, RAMPING UP WINDS. SURPRISINGLY, THE USUALLY MORE DOCILE
NBM HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS WHEN COMPARED TO THE HRRR/RAP,
SIGNALING THAT THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT THE
CEILING FOR OUR GUSTS, BUT THOSE SPEEDS WILL STILL SEND A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. AS WE
BEGIN COOLING DOWN TOMORROW EVENING, THOSE WINDS MAY NOT LET UP,
CARRYING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE BECOMING MORE SPORADIC
AS THEY FIGHT A RATHER WEAK NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TUESDAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW BRINGING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY WHILE A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS FOR
THE DAY. THIS FRONT WON'T BE TERRIBLY POTENT, ONLY KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S, WITH STRONGER
WINDS COMPARED TO MONDAY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE SET TO HIT
35-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE. IF THESE CONDITIONS HOLD IN THE FORECAST,
WE'LL BE GEARING UP FOR ANOTHER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER DAY
FOR A LARGER SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS.
ONE THING THAT COULD DISRUPT FIRE POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE IS THE
CHANCES FOR ELEVATED, POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT ARE BEING
DEPICTED BY SEVERAL OF THE EXTENDED CAMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FUN FACT: NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS BEEN PICKED
ON QUITE A BIT THIS YEAR WITH REGARDS TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
FOR THE PERIOD OF JAN 1 TO MAY 10 (INITIAL TRANSITION SEASON),
KLNK HAS HAD THE MOST DAYS WITH A MINIMUM RH UNDER 20% EVER
THIS YEAR, WHERE KOFK HAS HAD THE 3RD MOST EVER.
WINDS LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOLLOWS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TRACKING THROUGH OUR NECK
OF THE WOODS. HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES,
MAKING FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE IN THE WARMTH. HIGHS SHOOT
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A PREVIEW OF SUMMER COMING IN
THE FORM OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY OVER 90
DEGREES. WE WILL ALSO TREND WINDIER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
WITH THURSDAY BEING THE BREEZIEST OF THE BUNCH WITH 45-50+ MPH
ON THE TABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE OUR
GREATEST FIRE DANGER DAY AS IT STANDS, STAYING CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THOSE HOPING FOR RAIN WILL FIND LITTLE TO
DIG US OUT OF THE HOLE WE'VE BEEN IN, WITH TOTAL QPF TOTALS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 0.25".
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT. WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH BY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AROUND 12 KFT. A LOW-LEVEL JUST DEVELOPS AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, LLWS MAY BECOME A CONCERN.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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