950
FXUS63 KOAX 142324
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THERE WERE SHOWERS TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER REMAINED IN PLACE, BUT TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM WERE IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S OWING TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL TRACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA) AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS,
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GRAND ISLAND, NE, THEN BACK SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD KANSAS CITY WILL BE IN THE AREA TO PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. IN FACT, SAID SURFACE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IT WOULD BE, SO
COULD BE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY IN THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, BUT WE'VE REMAINED PRETTY CLOUDY ALL DAY, SO STILL NOT
MUCH TO WORK WITH. STILL, PERHAPS A BIT MORE THUNDER COULD BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
WELL SOUTH INTO KANSAS, WHERE AN MCS IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH ON
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
FOR SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH AND
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, THOUGH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE WELL INTO KANSAS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AS ANOTHER
COUPLE BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH...ONE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ANOTHER ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EVENTUALLY IT LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING, BUT PLENTY
OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND THEN TO EVALUATE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, BEFORE
THEN, EXPECT THE CONTINUED OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY IN THE 70S, PENDING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH COULD GET US BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
BROKEN CUMULUS AT 5000 FT AGL HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED -TSRA ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-80. HAVE CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS, BUT 20-25% CHANCE IS
EXPECTED FOR KLNK.
LOWER CIGS AND FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BY 11Z. VIS COULD
DIP INTO IFR CATEGORY AT KOFK... AND ALL THREE SITES SHOULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AFTER 11Z SATURDAY.
EXPECT VIS AND CIGS TO IMPROVE BY LUNCH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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