162  
FXUS63 KOAX 222232  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
432 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
   
..UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 423 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
 
AT 4 PM, THE REGION WAS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  
THE FIRST WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW WE  
RECEIVED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY, WHILE THE SECOND WAS DIVING SOUTH  
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WERE  
ONGOING OVER THE REGION, WITH LIGHT SNOW IN IOWA AND SOME COLD  
RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER THE REGION  
AND TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. JUST WARM  
ENOUGH THAT THOSE SIDE ROADS REMAIN SLUSHY OUT THERE.  
 
OUR DUEL THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE  
FOG AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AS THE TROUGH IN  
THE DAKOTAS SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE REGION AND INDUCE A ZONE OF LIFT (AND SUBSEQUENT  
PRECIPITATION) OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. SIGNS OF THIS  
PRECIPITATION WERE ALREADY EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA AND THE BLACK HILLS. THOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS  
POSSIBLE DURING ANY PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE PEAK TIMES  
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND NOON  
THURSDAY. THE GOING FORECAST PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL  
IN A ZONE FROM ALBION TO GRAND ISLAND TO LINCOLN, WHERE 1 TO 3  
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. NOTE, THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER  
(INCLUDING OMAHA) WHERE WE COULD EASILY MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE  
SNOW OR SEE SEVERAL INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS HOISTED  
FOR THE REGION WHERE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, AND IMPACTS  
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE TONIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS COULD  
LEAD TO DENSE FOG FORMATION OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND  
WESTERN IOWA. THE HIGHEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN IOWA,  
WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT PRIOR TO THE  
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. HENCE A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR WESTERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO  
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI  
RIVER VALLEY IN THE MORNING, FRIDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY  
OVER THE REGION. SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS  
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP  
OUT NEAR 30 DEGREES. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE KIND OF DAY THAT WILL  
BE MELTING MUCH SNOW.  
 
THE TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,  
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN  
DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY OVER THE  
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S  
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.  
 
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOING FORECAST SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW  
WITH THIS SYSTEM (THOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE). YET ANOTHER  
ROUND OF POTENTIAL "FUN" FOR ALL THE WINTER LOVERS OUT THERE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST WED JAN 22 2020  
 
LIGHT SNOW WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z  
THURSDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AND LOW  
SNOWFALL RATES, SNOWFALL SHOULD MAINLY BE A NUISANCE WITH LIMITED  
IMPACT AT KLNK OR KOMA. LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE  
THROUGH 00Z. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z  
THURSDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR BASES  
IN THE 200-900 FT AGL RANGE WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1-5 SM FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z THURSDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG A LINE FROM KLNK TO KOMA. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW  
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z  
AND 18Z THURSDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  
IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AT ALL THE TAF SITES DURING THIS PERIOD (KOMA,  
KLNK AND KOFK).  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST  
THURSDAY FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST  
THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-016>018-030>033-042>045.  
 
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-  
055-056-069-079-080-090-091.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY  
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ALBRIGHT  
AVIATION...ALBRIGHT  
 
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