794
FXUS63 KOAX 280511
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
NE THIS EVENING, AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG
THE NE/SD BORDER. AND IT'S THAT AREA THAT COULD BE IN SLIGHT
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF COUNTIES, KNOX AND CEDAR, AND EVEN A COUPLE MODELS HINT
AT POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE 3-4" RANGE ALONG THE SD BORDER.
THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX AND CEDAR
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
FARTHER SOUTH, AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ARE THIS
EVENING, COULD SEE A ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP. THERE IS JUST A
HINT OF SOME VERY LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, WITH COMPUTED
850MB LI SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE DURING THE EVENING. SPC KEEPS THE
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS DOES THE CALIBRATES
SPC HREF MODEL. THE SREF HINTS AT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF THUNDER
PROBABILITIES, BUT OVERALL, HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY
THUNDER THIS EVENING. WHERE IT RAINS, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S, (ALBEIT STILL NEAR NORMAL), THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY AND
VERY MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, BUT A FEW LOW 60S HERE AND
THERE AS WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE OMAHA METRO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CASS AND OTOE COUNTIES AS OF 11 PM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE ADVANCING EAST. AS SUCH, WE WILL ONLY
MENTION VCSH AT KOMA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, IR
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS EASTERN NE. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 08Z OR 09Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KOFK. THE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AT KOFK AND AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT
KOMA AND KLNK. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS
THROUGH MONDAY. WE DO HAVE TWO ONGOING ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER, THE FIRST NEAR SCHUYLER, AND THE
SECOND NEAR FREMONT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THOSE TWO
LOCATIONS WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENT NOTED.
RIVER OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED THAT LOWER PORTIONS OF BOTH RIVERS
WERE PERHAPS SEEING SOME CLEARING OUT WITH MORE FREE FLOWING WATER
NOTICED. AND THAT'S GOOD NEWS TO ALLOW ANY ADDITIONAL ICE BREAKUP
COMING DOWNSTREAM TO HOPEFULLY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SYSTEM. WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEEING HIGHER FLOWS ON THE PLATTE
FROM NORTH BEND DOWNSTREAM, SO WE KNOW THERE IS LIKELY SOME ICE
MOVING THROUGH THE CHANNELS. WE ARE ALSO SEEING STAGES DROP AT
WATERLOO ON THE ELKHORN RIVER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE VISUAL
OBSERVATIONS THAT ICE WAS CLEARING OUT THERE, AND LIKELY MAKING IT
INTO THE PLATTE RIVER.
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF IF, OR WHEN ANY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS
COULD DEVELOP, WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WE
DID TRIM A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE ELKHORN
RIVER OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE RIVER OBSERVATIONS THERE
INDICATE THE WATER SEEMS TO BE FLOWING MOSTLY OK, WITH PLENTY OF
ROOM IN THE BANKS IF SOMETHING WERE TO HAPPEN. AND WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY, IN COOPERATION WITH RIVER OBSERVERS, NRDS, AND
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO ALERT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS IF
THEY DEVELOP.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ032-033-042>045-
050>053-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...MEAD
HYDROLOGY...DEWALD
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