258
FXUS63 KOAX 140511
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10AM-7PM.
- PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY,
SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT, SEEN ON THE 305K PRESSURE SURFACE, WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A SUBTLE WARM FRONT. CAMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FIRING UP A
LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR EATING AWAY THE MAJORITY OF THEIR
PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A DEEPENING LOW SHIFTS ALONG
THE CENTRAL CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS
OVER NOTABLY DRY PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SUSCEPTIBLE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE DRY TALL
GRASSES PREVAIL, AND DEAD VEGETATION BELOW SHORT GREEN GRASS
CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT, BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO FIRE NEAR THE FRONT, OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, AND CONGEAL INTO
A CLUSTER, GLANCING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
LACKING, WEAK INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE GUST AND LARGE HAIL.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
TEMPERATURES CLIMB EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW AND MID
90S, HOWEVER THEY COULD BE HINDERED SLIGHTLY BY LINGERING CONVECTIVE
CLOUD COVER. SPC KEEPS US HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT, PROGGED TO BE NEAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD AGAIN BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER THE REGION WILL STALL AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SATURDAY.
WHILE THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
INFLUENCED BY FRIDAY EVENING'S CONVECTION, STORMS WILL LIKELY
FIRE ALONG IT AS INSTABILITY POOLS IN A POCKET OF 35-45 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY, AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW IS PUSHED NORTHEAST. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
DRIVE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
COULD POTENTIALLY EFFECT STORM CHANCES FRIDAY WHICH IN-TURN WOULD
RIPPLE THROUGH CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
IT WOULD BE BEST TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FORECAST UPDATES IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK AFTER A WEEKEND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
REGION. A FEW GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALSO. MOST TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW LLWS CRITERIA, BUT OFK WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITERIA
INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED. DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING MID-LEVEL AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10
KFT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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