416
FXUS63 KOAX 241739
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1239 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY (30-60%) AND SUNDAY (60-90%).
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING
(5-10%) AND SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON-NIGHT (15-20%).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ON AND OFF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S STORMY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY. BY NOON TEMPERATURES
HAD ONLY REACHED THE MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A PEEK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE,
A SECOND LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH KEPT US DRY TODAY, WILL
SHIFT EAST BY SATURDAY. BEHIND IT, A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP,
LINKING THE TWO LOWS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WHILE SHEAR
LOOKS TO BE MODERATE, AT 40-50 KTS OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, INSTABILITY OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND, A FEW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR THAT
COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS, SEVERAL CAMS INDICATE A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA, SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL
IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED BY A MARGINAL RISK (5-10%) BY THE SPC.
A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HELPS THE SURFACE LOW BECOME
MORE WELL ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WILL BE LIFTED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS
THE LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK THAT THE LOW TAKES, AND A
COULD BE INHIBITED BY DAYTIME PRECIPITATION, OR THE WARM FRONT NOT
DRIFTING QUITE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL RUNS
SHOW 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE,
SUGGESTING PLENTY OF POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, SPC HAS PLACED US IN
A SLIGHT RISK (15-20%) FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY, WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING, IN THE 40S TONIGHT, AND 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LREF GRANDENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES PEG THE FORECAST AREA WITH A 45-70% PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, THE
GREATEST CHANCE BEING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NEAR 70 ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY AND INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVES RUMBLE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN WE'VE HAD RECENTLY, BUT STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL, IN THE
MID 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE AFTER 12Z AT KOFK, AND AFTER 18Z AT KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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