934
FXUS63 KOAX 012305
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2023
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH VERY HIGH RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER IN MANY AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS BEING SEVERE WEATHER,
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WILDFIRE DANGER, AND STRONG WINDS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE
SD BORDER TO LOWER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET A MODEST INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-
LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25% SOUTH OF
I-80 IN NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, VERY HIGH RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST ACROSS THAT AREA, AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHEAST NE WHERE STRONGER WINDS WILL COMPENSATE
FOR HIGHER RH.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY:
LOW TO MIDLEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A PROMINENT MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. WITHIN THAT REGIME, THE MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER-MO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THAT ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH/NORTHEAST
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE AND IA MONDAY. THERE'S STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION AREA, SO WE WILL ONLY INCLUDE 20-30% POPS IN THIS
FORECAST. CLOUDS AND ANY AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 50S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS TUESDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTING A WEATHER SCENARIO ON TUESDAY QUITE
SIMILAR TO THAT YESTERDAY (FRIDAY). BOTH THE SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK AND
COLORADO STATE MACHINE-LEARNING SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES
INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROADER THREAT AREA DEVELOPING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWEST IA,
ALONG AHEAD OF A MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE.
EXPECT THIS WESTERN EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
NOW AND TUESDAY AS SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM.
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT (MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST NE),
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN OVERLAP OF LOW RH AND STRONG
WINDS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK,
THE WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA AS
HAVING A 30-50% CHANCE OF > 0.25" LIQUID EQUIVALENT (I.E.,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS > 2.0-2.5") TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG; FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE SD
BORDER WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION
AXIS OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF SURFACE LOW TRACK; BUT FOR
NOW, WE WILL INDICATE READINGS RANGING FROM 40S IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA TO AROUND 80 IN THE FALLS CITY VICINITY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AND IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST NE
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER BY
FRIDAY; IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2023
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THIS EVENING OUT OF THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH LLWS THREAT AT ALL TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...DEE
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