856
FXUS63 KOAX 272313
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
105 TO 118 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY (20-30% CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
IS LEADING TO HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF WITH ADDED AGRICULTURAL CONTRIBUTIONS IS LEADING TO
THE HIGH HEAT/HIGH HUMIDITY SCENARIO FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY WILL HELP TO PUSH OFF SOME
OF THE ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS ADVECT IN MILDER
TEMPERATURES STARTING TOMORROW. YES, TODAY WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF
EXTREME HEAT, AT LEAST FOR THIS STRETCH, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BACK IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES BACK DOWN BELOW 100.
THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY EAST OF OUR IOWA
COUNTIES. THESE ARE OCCASIONALLY CLIPPING FAR EASTERN SHELBY AND
POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTIES, THOUGH. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE, BUT
WORST CASE WE COULD SEE 1-1.25 INCH HAIL. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO IMPACT OUR AREA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
STORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND FALLING APART
AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LEADING TO GREATER CHANCES (20-
30%) OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, GENERALLY DECREASING AS YOU GET
FARTHER EAST. WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK, WE COULD SEE
STRONG WINDS IF ANY HOLD TOGETHER INTO OUR AREA. ANOTHER SCENARIO TO
WATCH IS THE HRRR REDEVELOPS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AROUND 16-18Z TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THESE AGAIN LIKELY WON'T BE SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS.
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
STORMS AS WELL AS ANY LATE-MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS. WE SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WE MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CLIPPING OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA COUNTIES, BUT LATEST TRENDS
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY
STAGNANT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A MODEST BUMP IN HUMIDITY MAY BE
OBSERVED AS WE SEE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVE BACK IN AS THE HIGH OVER
THE REGION STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN
AHEAD AS A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACNW PUSHES EAST OVERTOPPING
THE RIDGE. AS THIS APPROACHES, WE'LL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE LINE
CREATING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS LOW LINGERS UNTIL IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A FAIRLY RAINY DAY ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS KEEPS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON THURSDAY, LIKELY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF STORMS FROM DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
IN ANY CASE, COOLER AIR OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL LIKELY MOVE IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A BETTER
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT.
WHILE WE SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WE SEE THE
RIDGE START TO BUILD BACK UP TO OUR WEST, LOOMING... TEMPERATURES
TREND BACK UPWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KOFK AND
KLNK FROM 08Z AND 12Z; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
REMAINS LOW. KOMA MAY ALSO HAVE A CHANCE (20%) FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM POPPING UP BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z TOMORROW, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HERE AS WELL.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...ANW
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