026
FXUS63 KOAX 260555
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FRIDAY MORNING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE, BEFORE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW (30%) AND BREEZY WINDS (85%) ARE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
DREARY CHRISTMAS! AS ANTICIPATED, A LOW DECK OF STRATUS AT 300
FT AGL HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 40S ALL DAY LONG
WHILE NEIGHBORING AREAS UNENCUMBERED BY THE FOG AND ATMOSPHERIC
MELANCHOLY ARE SETTING RECORD HIGH TEMPS. JUST WEST OF HERE,
IMPERIAL AND VALENTINE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE MID-60S. OUR
18Z WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVED TEMPS RUN FROM LOWER 40S AT THE SFC
TO 58F AT JUST 4500FT WHEN IT CLEARED THE STRATUS. THE SPC'S
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE SUGGESTS TODAY'S SOUNDINGS WAS
REWRITING WARM RECORDS AT ELEVATED LAYERS, JUST NOT AT THE
SURFACE.
A WIDER VANTAGE EXPLAINS THE ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH PRONOUNCED
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
WESTERN IOWA.
MID-DAY OBSERVATIONS RECORDED A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY,
THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LOW. EXPECT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO TRY TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE SHALLOW
COOL AND HUMID AIR WILL PRODUCE MORE FOG (ESPECIALLY WEST).
GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG REACHING ITS WIDEST COVERAGE AROUND 10PM
TONIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO BACK OFF A BIT AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE REPLACED BY DRIER WESTERLY WINDS. FOG SHOULD LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE TWINKLING HOLIDAY STARS
BY FRIDAY MORNING... AT LEAST IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
FRIDAY
OVERALL, THE PATTERN WON'T HAVE CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH, BUT WE'RE
EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE
CONTINUED WARMER AND DRIER WESTERLY SFC FLOW. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50F (NE CWA) TO UPPER-60S (SW CWA). RECORDS AT KOFK,
LNK, AND TQE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL.
STANDING RECORDS:
55 / 2011 | NORFOLK
52 / 2011 | TEKAMAH
62 / 1936 | OMAHA
61 / 2008 | LINCOLN
66 / 2008 | FALLS CITY
THE WEEKEND
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC TODAY BRINGS CHANGES TO THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THE PACIFIC LOW OPENS AND
PHASES WITH A TROF CAUGHT UP IN THE POLAR JET AS THEY CROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY, TAKING
SATURDAY'S PLEASANT 50S AND DROPPING THEM BY 15-25 DEGREES FOR
SUNDAY. POPS OF 30% ARE REASONABLE AS THE SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A
LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TEMPS NORTH OF I-80 SHOULD KEEP
HYDROMETEORS FALLING ENTIRELY AS SNOW, BUT TEMPS MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS. STILL,
QPF IS LOW ENOUGH THAT EVEN NORTHERN LOCALES ARE UNLIKELY TO
SEE AN INCH (10-20% NBM). MOST SNOW WILL FALL SUNDAY MORNING
WITH TAPERING AND ENDING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE.
NEXT WEEK
FOR THOSE ON THE HOOK FOR RETURNING TO THE OFFICE ON MONDAY,
IT'LL BE A COLD ONE. MONDAY'S LOWS BEGIN NEAR 10F AND HIGHS WILL
FALL SHY OF FREEZING. BUT WITH THE TROFING RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRISK START TO THE WEEK PUSHING EAST, MODERATION IS ON TAP WITH
RIDGING QUICK TO PUSH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF
SITES ASIDE FROM KOFK WHERE CLEARING IS OBSERVED. CEILINGS
REMAIN RATHER PESSIMISTIC THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z AT KOMA AND KLNK.
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED RATHER RAPIDLY TO MVFR/VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST, SO HAVE REFINED TIMING WITH THIS ISSUANCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
BACK INTO KOMA SOMETIME AFTER 14Z AND MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HAVE CONTINUED MENTIONS IN THIS
ISSUANCE. SOME CHANCE (20-30%) EXISTS THAT KOFK COULD BE CLIPPED
BY THESE CEILINGS, BUT HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD,
BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING, THEN TURNING SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED LLWS MENTIONS TO KLNK AFTER 08Z
THROUGH 11Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ012-015-018-
032>034-045-052-053-067-068-088>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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