412
FXUS63 KOAX 050519
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH THE 90S WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S. A FEW LOW 100S
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
- A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE OMAHA CWA EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BIG HORNS OF WYOMING
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE, AND A BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE, CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW MODELS SHOW THESE
STORMS POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE HEAT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOW 90S. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2500+ J/KG, MUCAPE VALUES
ALSO AROUND 2500+ J/KG AND LAPSE RATES DECENT. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 25-35KTS WITH SRH VALUES OF 150+ M^2/S^2, POSSIBLY CLOSER
TO 250+ M^2/S^2 NEAR THE FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND HOW STRONG THEY COULD BECOME.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHILE
OTHERS SUCH AS THE HRRR ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN GETTING STORMS
TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO GET GOING WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS THURSDAY, THE SETUP DOES STILL GIVE US THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP,
GIVING US A CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
TEXAS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING A COUPLE OF
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OMAHA CWA.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TO MID-90S. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW TO MID-90S
IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGS SEVERAL DAYS
WHERE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE CWA. NOT EVERY LOCATION CAN EXPECT TO SEE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WITH A DECAYING MCS APPROACHING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
PATCHY FOG MAY SEEP INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE PRECIPITATION AND FOG SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES,
FOR THE MOST PART, A FEW HOURS OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1 SM
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z AT KOFK,
16Z AT KLNK, AND 17Z AT KOMA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KOMA AND KLNK, HOWEVER EXACTLY WHERE STORMS DEVELOP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...KG
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