117
FXUS63 KOAX 260446
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1046 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND THIS COMES AS A SNOW AND RAIN
MIXTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
AS EXPECTED, THE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE HELD STRONG TODAY, AND
WE'VE HAD LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 30S. THERE REMAINS PATCHY FOG/HAZE ACROSS SOME
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS STRATUS DECK WILL PROBABLY DESCEND BACK TO
AREAS OF SURFACE FOG THIS EVENING, BECOMING DENSE AGAIN ACROSS
EASTERN NE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT, BEGINNING AT EITHER 7 OR 8 PM, DEPENDING ON LOCATION,
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AND WHILE
THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA, BELIEVE ANY FOG
THERE WOULDN'T BE DENSE.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BEING MOVING
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER MIDNIGHT, RESULTING IN
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DENSE FOG. FORTUNATELY,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT WITH THE DENSE FOG AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST NE, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.
THE FIRST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE MEASURABLE QPF
EXPECTED, BUT THE PERSIST DRIZZLE COULD ADD UP TO A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO AT SOME SPOTS. IT IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW IN THE LOWER 40S.
THE FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE'D NEED YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY, THE 4TH
NIGHT IN A ROW FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THERE MAY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH IN SOUTHWEST IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING, ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, AND THEN EXITS TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, AND
THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE
IT ALL ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT'S NOT A LOT OF RAIN, BUT THE GROUND
ALSO ISN'T FROZEN, SO IT ALL SHOULD EASILY GO INTO THE SUBSOIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 40S FOR ALL
AREAS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IT WILL BE NICE TO NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FOG AND
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AGAIN.
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY, AFFECTING OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AND
EXITING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. POPS DO INCREASE TO 40-60% DURING
THIS TIME, AND IT WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN, BUT HIGHS
ARE STILL FORECAST MONDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, SO EVEN
THE SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN INCH IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. BUT IT'S A SYSTEM WE'LL DEFINITELY BE WATCHING.
AND THEN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
AS OF 10:30 PM, IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ALL
THREE TERMINALS. LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DOMINATE ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 16-19Z BEFORE
DECREASING TO LIFR AGAIN BY 00Z.
VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT KOFK/KLNK AS FOG
REDEVELOPS, WITH CONDITIONS UNDER 1 MILE POSSIBLE (THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE) BY 07-09Z BEFORE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT VISIBILITY AT
KOMA WILL GO BELOW 4 SM TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 00Z. A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVES INTO THE
TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. HOWEVER, THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...WOOD
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