815
FXUS63 KOAX 151732
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POWERFUL WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. SNOW COMBINED WITH THE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING.
- FRIGID WIND CHILLS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO -25 RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.
- CHANCE (20-30%) FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY. WARM UP EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING 80F BY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE NORWEGIAN CYCLONE
MODEL FRAMEWORK FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IT STARTED AS A
BAROCLINIC LEAF YESTERDAY DEEPENING INTO A SURFACE LOW WITH A
WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT. AS THE SYSTEM PASSED TO
OUR SOUTH, WE REMAINED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH THE WARM-
CONVEYOR BELT PROVIDING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS CAUSED THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WE SAW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 8 AM. WE EVEN SAW SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WE CURRENTLY SEE THAT THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO LAG SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW, LENDING TO THIS SYSTEM NOT BEING FULLY MATURE JUST YET AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI WHILE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
AROUND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE LIKELY WON'T SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL UNTIL WELL AFTER THIS SYSTEM IS OUT
OF OUR AREA.
DESPITE THE LACK OF TROWAL, WE DO SEE A FRONTOGENESIS BAND HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST
(GENERALLY UP TO 4 INCHES), STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM THIS
POWERFUL, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO GREAT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY CREATING NEAR-WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS
CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 40 TO 55 MPH WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 55 TO
65 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOULD CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST BY 10PM WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED TOWARD MIDNIGHT. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES, BLOWING
SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE RURAL
AREAS, INTO MONDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
WINDS WON'T RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
NOW THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE WIND AND THE SNOW, LET'S DISCUSS
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY MORNING IS GOING TO BE COLD. DUE TO
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WINDS
CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY, WIND CHILL IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND
AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DOWN TO AROUND 20
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR MONDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST THAT WILL SEE WIND CHILL FALL TO -20 TO -25.
GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WHO ARE READY FOR WARMER WEATHER. COLD
TEMPERATURES DON'T STICK AROUND FOR LONG. WHILE TUESDAY MORNING
WILL START OUT FAIRLY CHILLY (TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS), WE SEE THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA'S EXPAND EASTWARD BRINGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY MODERATELY WARM ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S, MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOW I MUST MENTION THAT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY, WE DO SEE 30-40% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THIS STARTS TUESDAY MORNING, WE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT IN THE EVENING.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 60S EAST TO MID 70S CLOSER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS
THE RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE TO OUR WEST, WE CONTINUE TO
SEE WARM-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIP IN SIGHT. HIGHS APPEAR LIKELY TO PEAK
ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE SEE THE BREAK-DOWN OF THAT STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TOWARD SUNDAY-MONDAY. STILL, NOT
SEEING ANY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW EXPAND EASTWARD
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR/LIFR AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 40-45KT, WITH GUSTS TO 55KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OFF WEST TO EAST, CLEARING OUT OF KOFK AROUND
20-21Z, AND KOMA AND KLNK AROUND 00-01Z. WE'LL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SEE BLOWING SNOW REDUCE VISIBILITY AT AT LEAST KOFK AND KOMA
INTO THE EVENING, WHERE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN AT
KLNK. WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AROUND 03-06Z, ALLOWING
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE. ONCE VISIBILITY IMPROVES, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND FL150-FL250 INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING, GUSTING TO 30-35KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-015-017-018-031>034-043>045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090>093.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-056.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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