048
FXUS63 KOAX 170737
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
237 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH
TODAY BEFORE A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TWO PERTURBATIONS WILL THEN RE-
JOIN IN THE FORM OF A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN THE
LOW LEVELS, A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LEE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. WHILE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 60 EAST AND MID 60S
NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY, YIELDING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
BY AFTERNOON, LIMITING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A BELT
OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET COULD YIELD
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT (I.E.
ROUGHLY SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA), WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 60S BEHIND IT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
ON SATURDAY, A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY WITH OUR AREA RESIDING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A COLD, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SURGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS TAF CYCLE AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MEAD
LONG TERM...MEAD
AVIATION...KERN
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