935
FXUS63 KOAX 161725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RISING INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
INCREASED WINDS DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ALL HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING GUSTS 30 TO AT LEAST 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, AROUND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE. MAY END UP NEEDING A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT LOOK AT
THIS CLOSER. WITH STRONGER WINDS, THIS WILL BRING HUMIDITY DOWN
MORE, NOW FORECAST TO DROP TO 15-30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS, SO ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
TUESDAY FROM 12P THROUGH 8P. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH, AROUND
60 TO 80 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WAS ENJOYED UNDER THE SUNNY SKIES
TODAY. LIKE SATURDAY, HIGHS FLIRTED WITH A 30 DEGREE MARGIN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT
AN INCREASING NUMBER OF MODELS HAVE INDICATED A THREAT OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA WITH THE NAM
SUGGESTING MORE WIDESPREAD FOG BY SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN
CREEPING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT THINK A 25%-ISH
CHANCE OF ITS DEVELOPMENT IS REASONABLE BEFORE SUNRISE. HREF
SUGGESTS VISIBILITY UNDER TWO MILES IS ONLY 10-20% PROBABLE.
MONDAY
I HOPE YOU LIKED SUNDAY, BECAUSE WASHINGTON'S BIRTHDAY (MONDAY)
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID-60S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.
TUESDAY
TUESDAY IS THE BIG SHOW. THE DAY BEGINS WITH OVERCAST SKIES DUE
TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP, BUT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION LIMITED TO UNDER 3 KFT. FOR THIS
REASON, I'VE REMOVED THE NBM'S RAIN SHOWERS AND REPLACED THEM
WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE BEFORE 9 AM.
IN THE AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP SPEED WITH WIND GUSTS
OF UP TO 35 MPH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
LREF/NBM SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A HOLE CUT OUT OVER THIS CWA. RECORD HEAT IS STILL FORECAST
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER-70S IN WESTERN IOWA TO UPPER 70S
IN THE LINCOLN AREA. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SLIP BELOW 25% IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FIRE DANGER WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE
'VERY HIGH' CATEGORY AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE MAY BE BUMPING UP
AGAINST RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY EVE,
BRINGING A CHANCE (20-40%) OF LIGHT RAIN.
WEDNESDAY
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO LINGER FOR AREAS THAT MISSED
OUT ON THE WINTER RAINFALL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT FASTER
THAN NORMAL AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DRY AIR
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND RH VALUES FALL AS LOW
AS 15-20%.
END OF THE WEEK
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH COMES TO AN END BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW PASSES THROUGH KANSAS. COOLER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH INTO THE
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID-50S AT FALLS CITY TO NEAR
FREEZING AT NIOBRARA, NE. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE WEEK'S BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP (40-60%) WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. P-TYPE FORECASTS WOULD CALL FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE SD STATE LINE
LOOKS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER LARGE SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST AND KEEPING TEMPS
CLOSER TO FEBRUARY AVERAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE
TERMINALS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT PRESENCE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW, WITH
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TUESDAY'S STANDING RECORDS VS THE FORECAST
NORFOLK 72 | 1981 .. 74 | 2026
LINCOLN 74 | 2017 .. 77 | 2026
.OFFUTT 65 | 1970 .. 75 | 2026
.EPPLEY 75 | 2017... 75 | 2026
TEKAMAH 66 | 2017 .. 74 | 2026
FALLS CITY 76 | 2017 .. 72 | 2026
VALLEY NWS 69 | 2017... 74 | 2026
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...MCCOY
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...ANW
CLIMATE...NICOLAISEN
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