128  
FXUS63 KOAX 161733  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/COVERAGE THIS  
MORNING, ALONG WITH THEIR INTENSITY, AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY  
NEEDED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, AFTER  
COLLABORATING WITH BORDERING NWS OFFICES, WE WILL HOLD WITH THE  
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.  
 
REMNANTS OF BARRY CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF MO INTO IL, AR AND POINTS  
EAST, BUT IN OUR AREA WE WERE GENERALLY IN WESTERLY FLOW AND NOT  
BEING AFFECTED THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE  
SOMEWHAT OF A MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED FROM NM AND CO INTO WESTERN  
KS AND PARTS OF NE. DECENT MOISTURE WAS NOTED AT BOTH 700 MB AND  
850 MB ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE KOAX 00Z SOUNDING WAS NOT  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH A PW OF 1.36 INCHES, AN MLCAPE AROUND 1020  
J/KG AND A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 7.2 C/KM. SOME STORMS POPPED  
UP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE, BUT THOSE  
FADED OUT AFTER SUNSET. STORMS THAT FORMED OUT OVER THE HIGH  
PLAINS WERE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AS OF 3 AM CDT WITH  
MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE INTENSITY. CELLS DO OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO  
AROUND SEVERE LEVELS. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED MLCAPE AS HIGH  
AS 1500-2000 J/KG IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH  
DOWNDRAFT CAPE MOSTLY 1000-1200. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF  
THE SHORT RANGE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS (INCLUDING THE  
OPERATIONAL HRRR) SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO MID MORNING  
THEN TRY TO DISSIPATE BY NOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW.  
WILL REINTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  
RIGHT NOW, WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO REACH MOSTLY 88 TO  
93.  
 
THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM THAT COULD HELP  
TRIGGER STORMS FOR TONIGHT, BUT WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER  
MID LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NV TO WY AND INTO THE  
DAKOTAS. THE RAP13 MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-45 KNOTS  
FROM WESTERN KS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NE BY MIDNIGHT, THEN  
DEVELOPS THAT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SIGNALS FROM A FEW DIFFERENT  
MODELS (INCLUDING THE SPC HREF) ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME  
20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD DROP  
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S.  
 
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING  
WEDNESDAY, THEN IT LOOKS LIKE A HOT AND DRY DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT  
OVERLY HIGH ON EXACTLY HOW HOT IT WILL GET SO KEPT THE EXCESSIVE  
HEAT WATCH FOR NOW. LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS JUST A SMALL AMOUNT, SO  
NOW WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 91 TO 98 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH  
THE HOTTEST VALUES FROM WEST TO SOUTH OF LINCOLN.  
 
500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR THURSDAY, BUT WITH  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS, AIR  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. WILL  
FORECAST JUST SHY OF 100 IN MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NE FOR HIGHS  
THURSDAY, WITH 93 TO 97 THE REST OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES  
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE FOLLOWING RANGES THE NEXT FEW DAYS -  
99 TO 106 WEDNESDAY, THEN 100 TO 108 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
WILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA  
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE  
RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW FOR THURSDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN  
THE 94 TO 99 RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY COULD BE A  
DEGREE OR SO COOLER.  
 
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SATURDAY AND THEN MONDAY A  
BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY TO REACH THE MID OR  
UPPER 80S IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND UPPER 80S  
OR LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS GIVING THE 00Z GFS MODEL A  
DECENT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT FOR NOW. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES  
A BIT HOTTER. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER  
MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY,  
THEN MOVES THAT TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND TO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE  
CANADIAN MODEL, SO WE WILL ADJUST IF NEEDED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT  
KOFK AND KOMA. OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER THAT  
IS FORECASTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. APPEARS IT WILL SET UP  
OVER KLNK BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE HOW FAR  
EAST AND NORTH THE LLWS SETS UP.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-  
065>068-078-088>093.  
 
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MILLER  
LONG TERM...MILLER  
AVIATION...FAJMAN  
 
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