436
FXUS63 KOAX 090521
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20-40%).
- EXPECT A RETURN TO THE 80S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR RAIN WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL
THURSDAY (15-30%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY SPRINKLES THIS EVENING, BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. A LAYER OF NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR
MANAGED TO PREVENT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
SHOWER COVERAGE AND WINDS DIMINISHED AS WE MOVED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL OVERNIGHT, DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN SATURDAY MORNING, ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CAMS SUGGEST SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BEHIND THE FRONT, BY LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE-STARVED AIR BELOW THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO REACH THE SURFACE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE A GENERAL LACK
OF INSTABILITY MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TYPICALLY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE BELOW ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DWINDLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SUNDAY, KEEPING US DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A MIDLEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRAGGING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. WHILE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST,
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD SKIRT ACROSS EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN IN THE 80S, AND PERHAPS THE LOW 90S. LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS
HINT AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
THURSDAY, WHICH COULD EFFECTIVELY SQUASH THE RIDGE AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW-
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LNK HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LIMITED
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THESE. A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THEN QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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