937
FXUS63 KOAX 201744
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10
PM. EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 WITH
OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES REMAINING IN THE 70S.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (20-40% CHANCE). DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME 70S
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EXCESSIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES SIMMERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATED THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOW 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS SPANNING THE 70S. HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM 99 TO 105.
BUT RELIEF IS IN SIGHT! SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER SUSTAINED STRONG STORMS MAY BE LIMITED BY STRONGEST SHEAR
VECTORS LINGERING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE STORMS LIKELY WON'T
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, THEY COULD FALL DOWN IN A
HURRY, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS
CAN BE VERIFIED BY NOTING THE 1400-1600 J/KG OF DCAPE BUILDING OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS, NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
BRING DOWN SOME NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILD FIRES. WHILE
IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AS IT WAS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES RECENTLY, IT MAY BE NOTICEABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
CAMS HINT AT ANOTHER LINE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP. HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE EVEN LESS
LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE, AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT REMAINING
INSTABILITY WITH IT'S PASSAGE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
STORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING,
TUESDAY, AS THE LINE MOVES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TAKE IT
DOWN A NOTCH, BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF "NORMAL", REACHING THE
MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE AFTERNOON.
A MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY!
A PAIR OF QUICK-HITTING SHORTWAVES WILL AIDE IN THE PUSH OF COOLER
AIR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY
WILL THESE BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO SOME MUCH NEEDED
WETTING RAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HIGHLIGHTS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY, WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AND TRAINING STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
UNFORTUNATELY, LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE RIDGE TO REBOUND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A
RESURGENCE OF HEAT. A FEW SHORTWAVES RIPPLING AROUND THE RIDGE COULD
BRING SOME MILD RELIEF WITH CLOUD COVER AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES. BUT
OVERALL, CPC OUTLOOKS MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT. SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR KOFK WILL BE BETWEEN 21-00Z, AND
NEAR KOMA BETWEEN 00-06Z. CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%) THAT THESE STORMS
WILL MAKE IT TO KLNK. ANOTHER ROUND OF NON-SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AROUND ALL 3 SITES BETWEEN 08-12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD ALSO BLOW SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 6SM AT TIMES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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