099
FXUS63 KOAX 131723
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30 TO 45% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY WEST OF A LINE FROM WEST
POINT TO LINCOLN, AND LOWER CHANCES (15 TO 20%) EAST. HIGHS
REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH GUSTY 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS.
- LINGERING SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
AREAS. GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES (30S TO LOW 40S).
- 15 TO 35% CHANCE FOR SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 45 MPH EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH COULD
LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS (10 TO 40% CHANCE) FROM SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MID TO HIGH LEVEL BASED CLOUDS HAVE FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WHILE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TURN GUSTY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS.
08Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG H5 JET ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE VORT MAXES ARE SEEN RIDING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES FUSE TOGETHER AND TRACK SOUTHEAST, A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY WILL SWING SOUTHWARD INTO MUCH OF NEBRASKA. THE ATTENDANT
VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD HELP FORCE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO WITH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION BEING ACHIEVED PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS. DRIER AIR IS STILL SEEN THOUGH ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM NEAR H7 TO THE SFC WHICH COULD LIMIT
RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE KEPT HIGHEST
POP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND OUR FAR WEST (30-45%)
WHILE LOWER CHANCES (15 TO 25%) FOR RAIN ENCOMPASS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. POPS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND AREA
FROM 17Z TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE
LOW 60S MAY OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTH. CLOUD COVER COULD CERTAINLY
RESULT IN A FEW AREAS UNDERPERFORMING IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE HAS ALREADY INDUCED A STRONG SFC
LOW, AND WHILE THE FEATURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP. WHILE MIXING MAY BE HAMPERED A BIT DUE TO THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
MIXING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KT JET MAX ROUNDING THE H8 LOW. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH,
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS THAT DON'T RECEIVE WETTING RAINFALL.
A FEW CAMS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER OUR FAR WEST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE KEPT 10 TO 14% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM 00Z THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES MIX IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGING
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 30S TO LOW 40S AS
WE'LL BE BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE LOWS COOL TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT H5 CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES APPROACH THE AREA FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. A WEAK H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT THROUGH OUR AREA
THURSDAY, HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S IN
OUR FAR WEST. THIS WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED AS A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FIRST WAVE AND RESULTANT SFC LOW SNEAKS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE BULK OF THE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
RESULTANT LIFT IS SEEN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED 15% AND GREATER POPS NORTH AND EAST OF AREA FOR THURSDAY
WHERE THE BULK OF QPF IS SEEN.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE SECONDARY WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN, HELPING STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING SFC LOW. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AREA, BUT THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
APPROACHING H8 JET MAX AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM RESULTANT CAA
SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY EVENING
INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC NBM HAS WIDESPREAD 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER OUR CWA AND A FEW ISOLATED 45 MPH GUSTS IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE EPS, SHOWS
HIGHER PROBABILITIES (40 TO 85% CHANCE) FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
45 MPH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. GEFS AND EPS MEAN WIND GUSTS
RANGE FROM 45 TO JUST BELOW 55 MPH OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE OTHER CONCERN FROM THIS FEATURE IS THE SNOW CHANCES. LATEST NBM
HAS SHIFTED POPS MORE TO THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY DECREASED CHANCES
(15 TO 35% CHANCE), WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCES REMAIN IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MAIN PRECIP THREAT ORIGINATING FROM
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG SFC LOW. THE LREF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WITH AROUND A 50 TO 80% FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER FOR
SNOW. PROBABILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY TAPER OFF FOR HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS, WITH A 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW
IN OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, LATEST GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUGGEST MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWER NATURE TO THE PRECIP.
REGARDLESS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITIES AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, IMPACTING
TRAVEL. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC WSSI-P SHOWS AT LEAST A 10 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER OUR FAR NORTH.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL WANT TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AND STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS COOL FRIDAY TO THE 30S BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND MONDAY TO THE 30S TO 40F.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH
A 40-60% CHANCE OF PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS (FL020-030)
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 14/03Z-14/04Z. UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC
TIMING AND DURATION OF ANY MVFR CEILING OCCURRENCE PRECLUDES
INCLUSION INTO THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (15-30% CHANCE) AT THE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SAME
UNCERTAINTIES DESCRIBED FOR THE CEILING RESTRICTIONS ALSO APPLY
TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 24-27 KT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page