190
FXUS63 KOAX 201937
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
237 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
TURNING COOLER THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 70S BY MONDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
PLACES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDING POLEWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
WILL BE FLATTENED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKING FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO OUR AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER WESTERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING. THEREAFTER, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST IA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
..FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA, SUPPORTING
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (POPS INCREASING TO
30-50%). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR,
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE A FUNCTION OF FRONTAL LOCATION, WITH
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND
MID/UPPER 80S TO THE SOUTH OF IT.
..THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A BROAD,
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN OUR AREA.
THAT NOTION IS SUPPORTED BY CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, WHICH
INDICATES A 70-90% CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
LARGELY IN THE 70S, WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING MONDAY WHEN
READINGS FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOW 70S ARE FORECAST. SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK (15-20% POPS),
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
LATE MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SCT-BKN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE FL020-30 LAYER. THE FORECAST
WILL INDICATE SCT030 AT THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF BKN CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH KOMA BEING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO BE
AFFECTED. FINALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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