745
FXUS63 KOAX 190534
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY (>80%), WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
COVERED BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5-6+" ARE FORECAST ALONG A LINE
FROM COLUMBUS TO BLAIR, WITH A NARROW WINTER STORM WARNING
COVERING THESE AREAS INTO IOWA.
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH DURING SNOWFALL WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH SNOW RATES TO MAKE FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
- DRY WEATHER SETTLES IN FRIDAY ONWARD, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY:
A BROAD AND MESSY PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING, WITH A DYNAMIC AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THE
FEATURE THATWE'RE MOST INTERESTED IN IS POWERING A LEAF OF ASCENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO MT/WY AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH A
SURFACE LOW ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE SOLE FOCUS OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, AND IT
WILL BRING A NARROW STRIPE OF HIGHLY IMPACTFUL SNOW OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
AS THE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE, THE SURFACE LOW WILL MAINTAIN IMPRESSIVE
DEPTH, SAUNTER ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT PIVOTS
AND EJECTS FROM NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI TOWARDS WISCONSIN. WHILE IT
PASSES BY, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS, WARM AIR ADVECTION, ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL WRAP ALONG IT'S NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND DRIVE A NARROW BUT POTENT LINE OF SNOW THAT WILL SPAN
2-3 COUNTIES TALL FOR THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS. SINCE WE'VE BEEN VERY
DRY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE KEYS TO THE SNOW BAND WILL LIE
WITH WHERE THE MOST ABUNDANT LIFT TRACKS, AND ITS RESIDENCE TIME
OVER THOSE AREAS. AS OF NOW, THE STRONGEST WILL TRACK GENERALLY FROM
WEST-TO-EAST, HELPING SATURATE THE DRY LOWER LEVELS OVER TIME. AS OF
NOW, THE LATEST DATA SHOWS THIS OVERLAP OF RESIDENCE TIME AND STRONG
FORCING EXTENDING FROM ALBION TO BLAIR, THEN TO UNDERWOOD IOWA.
GETTING INTO TIMING, UNCERTAINTY, AMOUNTS AND OTHER COMPLICATIONS,
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM THAT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED IS TO NAILING
DOWN THE LOCATION. WITH SUCH A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER FORECASTED
AMOUNTS, YOU WON'T HAVE TO TRAVEL VERY FAR NORTH OR SOUTH BEFORE
RUNNING OUT OF SNOW QUICKLY. SHIFTS IN THE LOCATION OF THE BAND SO
FAR HAVE BEEN DRIVEN BY THE SPEED OF THE MAIN SYSTEM AND WHEN IT
DECIDES TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY SHIFTS IN THE THE MODEL DATA
WILL MEAN STARK CHANGES FOR THE FORECASTED SNOW FOR ANY ONE
LOCATION. THE MODEL DATA HAS SHOWN THAT THERE IS MAJOR BOOM-OR-BUST
POTENTIAL, MEANING THAT IF THIS SYSTEM SEIZES ITS FULL POTENTIAL,
AREAS IN THE HEART OF THE STRIP OF SNOW COULD SEE 6-8" OR EVEN
HIGHER. LOWER ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HAVE THE HEART SEEING 3-5", WITH
SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT TIMING FOR
THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW, THINGS HAVE SHIFTED LATER, WITH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SEEING MID-TO-LATE MORNING START TIMES, WHILE AREAS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE OMAHA/CB AND LINCOLN METROS SEE A
START CLOSER TO 2-4 PM. WITH THINGS SETTLING IN BEFORE NOON TO JUST
HEAD OF THE EVENING COMMUTE, THOSE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT AT A
LARGER SCALE. COMBINE THAT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, WE'VE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THREADED IN A NARROW
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOST-IMPACTED AREAS. BY 9 PM,
THINGS BEGIN QUICKLY TAPERING OFF WITH MOST OF ANY SNOW EXITING
TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
BEHIND OUR NARROW BUT POTENTIALLY MIGHTY SNOW-MAKER, COLD AIR IS
EXPECTED TO FUNNEL IN FOR FRIDAY MORNING WHEN APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 0 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHLY MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND, WITH AREAS COVERED IN ANY WHITE STUFF LIKELY
STAYING IN THE LOWER TWENTIES AT BEST, WHILE THE FEBRUARY SUN
WARMS NORTH AND SOUTH OF IT TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY ONWARD, WE'LL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LETS US IN ON SOME OF THE
WARMER AIR INITIALLY LOCKED TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH. WE'LL SEE WINDS RAMP UP IN THE MORNING GUSTING TO
25-30KT WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW MOVES
INTO KOFK AROUND 15Z, STARTING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY, WITH MVFR
CIGS ARRIVING LATER. SNOW MOVES INTO KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN
20-22Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, LIKELY IFR. WE'LL
SEE PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY UNDER HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
BLOWING SNOW LIKELY LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, EVEN AFTER SNOW COMES TO AN END.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR NEZ015-033-034-065>067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NEZ043>045-050>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ030-042.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ043-056-079-080.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
IAZ055-069.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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