337
FXUS63 KOAX 231141
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
541 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TO AS COLD AS 35
BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS (2-4+ INCHES) EXPECTED ALONG THE NEBRASKA-
KANSAS BORDER, TAPERING OFF NORTHWARD.
- TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
FRIDAY...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO SPILL OUT OF CANADA
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 2 AM,
TEMPERATURES HAD PLUMMETED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0,
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY CLOUD COVER. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS REACHED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH,
RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND 20S.
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 10 AM TODAY. WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 COULD LINGER UNTIL
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT SOME LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ISENTROPIC LIFT COUPLED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A SWATH
OF SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY. LATEST CAM
AND MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CREATE A SHARP CUT OFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION, LEAVING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA, ESSENTIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS, LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS. FARTHER SOUTH, COLD AIR WILL
LEAD TO RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, AND FLUFFIER SNOW.
SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR TO LIMIT NORTHERN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.
THE HREF GENERALLY LIMITS ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN AN INCH TO
AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND ISLAND, TO LINCOLN, TO CRESTON, IA.
SIMILARLY THE LATEST LREF GRANDENSEMBLE RUN INDICATES ONLY A 50%
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2" NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER, AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4" WITHIN OUR CWA. THE NBM ON THE OTHER HAND
STILL INDICATES AN 80-90% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 2" NEAR THE BORDER,
WITH 40-60% BETWEEN OMAHA AND LINCOLN. NBM PROBS OF GREATER THAN 4"
HAVE DIPPED TO 50 TO 60% NEAR THE BORDER REGION. THEREFORE, WE HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA,AND UP
TO 2-4" ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WHERE FORECAST AMOUNTS REMAIN CLOSER TO 2" OR MORE.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH. HOWEVER, EXPECT PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
SNOW, AND SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DOUBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TO 6-8 DEGREES,
WHICH ISN'T SAYING MUCH WITH FRIDAYS HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 0-4
DEGREES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO FEND OFF ANOTHER
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY MORNING, ONLY DIPPING INTO -10 TO -20
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
A BRIEF WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO DOUBLE ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, REACHING 12-16 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON, AFTER MORNING WIND
CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AT 0 TO -15.
THE NEXT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THAT
FEATURE, THERE WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY
NIGHT, BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO -15, A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, COULD DIP TO -20 OR BELOW, POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING MORE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM CLOSE TO 30
DEGREES ON TUESDAY, AND DIPPING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING,
DROPPING BELOW 12KTS AROUND 15-17Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TOWARD THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE GROUND JUST SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM KOLU TO KLNK THIS MORNING. THIS REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, LIKELY REACHING KLNK BY 06Z TONIGHT.
WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH KOFK AND KOMA BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD, TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE SNOWBAND REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-
012-015>018-031>034.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ030-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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