093
FXUS63 KOAX 312305
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. SOME MAY START TO REACH THE SURFACE BY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND, WITH READINGS
HOVERING AROUND 90F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
CHANCES (~20%) OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CURRENT WV ANALYSIS REVEALS NUMEROUS WEATHER REGIMES ACROSS THE
CONUS, WITH LOWS IMPACTING EACH COAST, AND RIDGING OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS IS A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COMPACT FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A VERY SLIGHT POTENTIAL
(~20%) OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG, AND WITH THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE,
CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON ISOLATED CONVECTION, MOSTLY ACROSS
EASTERN NE AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN IA. WHAT WILL BE LACKING IS A
GOOD SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR
LONGER LIVED THUNDERSTORMS, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES POP WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND BRIEF. HOWEVER, THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH
SHEAR TO PRODUCE A LONGER LIVED, LOW-END SEVERE CELL WHICH HAS
PROMPTED THE SPC TO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DECENT CAPE, HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD, BUT SOME STRONG WINDS (>40 MPH) MAY ALSO BE
OBSERVED WITH SOME STORMS THANKS TO A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, AIDING IN SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM MANITOBAN THAT WILL STREAM OVER
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF SMOKE WILL REMAIN ALOFT,
HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE DENSITY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS
REACHING THE GROUND STARTING TONIGHT. ANY IMPACTS RELATED TO
THIS SHOULD REMAIN NOMINAL, BUT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS. FOR THOSE WHO HAVE
PLANS OUTDOORS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHT
EYE IRRITATION AND PERHAPS SOME RESPIRATORY ISSUES. BESIDES THE
SMOKE, ITS WILL BE A WARM WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
READINGS CLIMBING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TODAY, TOWARD
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH TRANSIENT RIDGE BEGINNING TO EXIT THE REGION ON MONDAY,
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE IN STORE, WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN
NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. CURRENT NBM
PROJECTIONS HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD 90F READINGS, WITH MAYBE EVEN
THE SLIGHT POTENTIAL (~25%) FOR A FEW SPOTS REACHING 95F. BEYOND
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A NOTICEABLE PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE,
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A NEARLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL FINALLY
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS. AS IT DOES, IT WILL HELP TO
DRAG REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ALVIN, WHILE
INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER SEPARATE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL SETUP WHAT COULD IS LIKELY TO BE A WET PERIOD
STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST RECENT SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DOES INCLUDE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (SLIGHT RISK FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NE) OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR MONDAY, SO SOME STRONG WINDS AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AS THESE CONVERGING TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUE
THEIR EASTWARD TREK INTO TUESDAY, RAINFALL SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WPC QPF HAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5-2" FOR
EASTERN NE AND SOUTHWESTERN IA WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THANKS TO
THE RAINFALL AND THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVERHEAD.
REGIONAL MAXTS ARE SHOWN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NE, TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR NORTHERN NE.
LONGER TERM
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK ACTIVE PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE BROADER FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. NBM DOES HAVE SOME
LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH OUT THE WEEK, BUT IT APPEARS
THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, FOR NOW
ONLY IMPACTING KLNK. WE COULD SEE STORMS APPROACH KOMA FROM THE
WEST, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE KOMA SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE
ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THESE
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE AFTER AROUND 00Z THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AROUND 17-18Z WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AT THE
TERMINALS. WE'LL SEE HIGH SMOKE MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS HIGH-LEVEL SMOKE WITH HANG AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY, CLEARING OUT AS WE SEE A SHIFT TOWARD
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING, PUSHING THE BULK OF THE
SMOKE BACK OFF TO THE EAST.
RIGHT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SURFACE IMPACTS FROM THE SMOKE, BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AROUND 10-15Z SUNDAY MORNING WHEN CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE INVERSION WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY
PULL SOME OF THE SMOKE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS, WE
MAY SEE MVFR VIS DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...MCCOY
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