539
FXUS63 KOAX 161043
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
443 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS AND LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) TODAY, WITH NARROW
BANDS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.
- MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS UNDER AN INCH TODAY,
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (2-3+ INCHES) WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE NARROW BANDS SET UP.
- COLD AIR AND LINGERING WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS FROM 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT
A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, AN INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE ARE OVERNIGHT, USHERING IN CAA BEHIND IT. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT HAS GENERATED AREAS OF LIGHT
RADAR REFLECTIVITY, WHICH HAVE TRANSLATED TO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE REFLECTIVITY APPEARANCE ON
RADAR, MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS TO A TRACE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LIGHT EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO AID
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER, AS NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35-48 MPH
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. GIVEN THIS, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
STARTED A BIT EARLY. A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
EARLY-MORNING ACTIVITY, BUT STRONGER MIXING LATER THIS MORNING WILL
ALLOW GUSTS TO RAMP UP AGAIN. BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
WIDESPREAD NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FAVORED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, ENHANCED CAA WILL LEAD TO
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BRIEFLY REACHING THE LOWER
30S BEFORE STEADILY DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THE DAY ARRIVES BEHIND THIS PASSAGE,
AS SNOW SHOWERS PUSH INTO THE AREA, EXPECTED TO INITIALLY PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 6-8 AM. ALTHOUGH SOME INITIAL LOW-LEVEL
DRYNESS WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, FAVORING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
CAM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THESE SNOW
SHOWERS AS NARROW, "STREAKY" BAND OF QPF ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BE HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS, WHICH ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
LOCALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN AND ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.
WHILE CAMS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RESOLVING
THESE CONVECTIVE STREAMERS, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
NARROW BANDS REMAINS LOW. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS, RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN
VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. NARROW CORRIDORS OF NEAR-
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, AND A SNOW SQUALL WARNING OR TWO
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY.
THESE SNOW SHOWER BANDS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT,
THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH
POTENTIAL EVENING COMMUTE IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE WIND ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT
6 PM.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW
PROBABILITY (5-25%) OF REACHING AN INCH, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING NO
ACCUMULATION OR JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THE LONGEST, LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE, AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF 2-3+ INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IF SUFFICIENT RESIDENCE TIME OCCURS BENEATH ONE OF THESE
CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE HIGHER TOTALS
IS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A LINGERING
CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY FOR ANY AREAS THAT TAP INTO THESE HIGHER
TOTALS.
SATURDAY...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO USHER AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WHEN COUPLED
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, MORNING WINDS CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
20 BELOW ZERO MAY NECESSITATE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
CAA WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FROM RECOVERING MUCH. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
TEENS, RUNNING ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN ON THE COLD SIDE, WITH MORNING LOWS AGAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRIVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, ALONG WITH SPOTTY QPF THAT MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND LOW QPF, POPS REMAIN LOW FOR NOW (UNDER 20%).
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, RENEWED CAA WILL KNOCK MONDAY'S MORNINGS
WIND CHILLS BACK INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING IN THE 20S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, NO DAY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION, THOUGH A
SERIES OF PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, THOUGH A COMPLEX FORECAST
PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. NARROW BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 12-14Z AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER BANDS. DUE TO THE
NARROW AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS, CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF IMPACTS AT INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS WILL REMAINS LOW
UNTIL THEY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, TEMPO
GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO CAPTURE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF
IMPACTS, WITH AMENDMENTS TO BE MADE AS TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AT KOFK, WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED LOWER CEILINGS AT KOMA AND KLNK REMAINS
LOWER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-40 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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