538
FXUS63 KOAX 180542
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 AM
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
- LINGERING WINDINESS AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINE
FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY 9 AM TO 6 PM.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE AFFECTING
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE POTENT,
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN USHERING IN DRY AIR
AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH THE BROADER TROUGH
TO ITS BACKSIDE EXTENDING WESTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND HAND ANALYSIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DRY,
POST-FRONTAL SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A STING JET NOSING INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
AND TROUGH AXIS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, SPORADIC
STRONG WINDS WILL OVERPOWER THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION, RESULTING IN
GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH FROM THE WEST-NORTWEAST. UPSTREAM GUST
OBSERVATIONS OF 58 MPH OR MORE HAVE BEEN TRENDING FEWER AND FARTHER
IN BETWEEN, AND WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND GUSTS THAT FALL BELOW 45 MPH
BY 5 AM. DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY, VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CARRY
OVERNIGHT AS HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN AT 35-45% IN THE GUSTIEST AREAS,
MAKING ANY RECENT BURN PILES/BARRELS POTENTIAL SOURCES OF RE-
IGNITION.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, OUR NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BEGIN WEARING OUT
AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO 9 AM, WITH
GUST SPEEDS OF 35-45 MPH THAT TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
NOON, THOSE SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-40 MPH AND SLOWLY ON
THE DECREASE. WHILE THEY DECREASE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE. EVEN THOUGH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS, EXTREME
FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST AS STRONGER WINDS COMPENSATE FOR HIGHER
HUMIDITY EARLY -- TRADING OFF WITH THE DRIER, BUT LESS WINDY,
AFTERNOON HOURS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF IOWA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 9 AM THROUGH 6 PM. AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN BURNING, AS CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE FUELS TO IGNITE VERY EASILY. AFTER 6 PM,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TANK INTO THE 30S WITH FURTHER DECREASING
WINDS, SENDING US INTO A WHIPLASH OF HOT AND WINDY TO A COLD AND
SNOWY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY:
AS IF FIRE WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS WEREN'T ENOUGH FOR THIS BROADER
TROUGH TO BRING US, OUR EYES TURN WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR A
SOUTHERLY BRANCH/VORTICITY MAXIMA TO BE SHED EASTWARD EARLY
THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO, LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH, BUT THE STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND ITS EVENTUAL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE ENOUGH TO
BRING IMPACTFUL SNOW BACK TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRY TO SKIP
ANY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF IT, AND SET UP A SWATH OF SNOW
THAT PAINTS 4" OR MORE ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POKING AROUND AT THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SHOOTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND WISCONSIN AFTER THAT.
THIS PIVOT AND EJECTION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE THE RESIDENCE
TIME OF THE DYNAMIC LIFT AND FOCUS IT OVER A RELATIVELY NARROW AREA.
POTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION, SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS, AND SOME CSI WILL
HELP TO DUMP UP TO 4" FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL DISRUPT
THE EVENING COMMUTE WHERE IT FALLS, AND MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW-
COVERED ROADS. THOUGH WE HAVE BEEN WARM, THE HIGHER SNOW RATES
WILL QUICKLY OVERWHELM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LET ACCUMULATION
START QUICKLY. THE MAIN POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT WE ARE
TRYING TO CLEAR UP ARE MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM, AND THAT WILL SHIFT THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OR TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO MATTER WHAT DIRECTION IT
SHIFTS, EXPECT A 3-4 COUNTY SWATH OF 4"+ INCHES TO STRETCH FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND POINTS NORTHEAST. AFTER PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE COLD
AIR POURS IN BEHIND IT.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
WITH OUR BRIEF REMINDER OF WINTER IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR,
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE GOING TO DEPEND ON WHERE ANY SNOW DID FALL.
SNOW WILL KEEP HIGHS FROM HITTING ANYTHING ABOVE FREEZING, WHILE THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA TRIES TO REACH INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S
WITH MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. AS OF NOW, BIAS CORRECTION FROM
THE NBM MAY BY UNDERSELLING SOME OF THE COLD THAT WILL SETTLE
IN OVER THE SNOW PACK, BUT WHERE EXACTLY THAT SETS UP IS STILL
BEING REFINED. THE BACK END OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SPIN EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING GLANCING
BLOWS AT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. DYNAMIC SYSTEMS AHEAD OF THESE
SMALLER SHORTWAVES (AT LEAST IN COMPARISON), EXPECT THOSE
CHANCES TO SHIFT NORTH AND SOUTH OVER SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF MODELS,
WITH THE LATEST DATA SHOWING A SOUTHERN TREND THAT FAVORS
NORTHERN KANSAS RATHER THAN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD, WE'LL FIND OURSELVES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF WEAK RIDGING
THAT WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY AND
SEND TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE LULLED A
BIT THIS EVENING BUT A BURST OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO 50KT. MOST WILL BE 30 TO 38KT, THOUGH. FARTHER SOUTH AT KOMA
AND KLNK WINDS WILL BE WEAKER BUT WILL SEE AN UPTICK AROUND
05-06Z WITH THE RETURN OF GUSTS TO 25-30KT. LLWS CONTINUES WITH
WINDS AROUND 1500 FT AROUND 45-50KT OUT OF THE WEST TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LLWS WILL END NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, HOLDING ON LONGEST AT KLNK WHICH WILL SEE IT
PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO 15Z. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE FLIPPING BACK TO NORTH OR
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FIRE DANGER HAS DECREASED TO VERY HIGH FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH LINGERING GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THROUGH 5 AM. FROM THERE, WINDS START STRONG (GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH) AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES BECOME
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TWO PUSHES US INTO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MOST OF IOWA INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH ANY FIRE ACTIVITY DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES (15% OR SLIGHTLY LESS).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-015-017-018-032>034-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
031>033.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-
055-056-069-080.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page