359
FXUS63 KOAX 201045
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
545 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S RETURN THIS WEEK.
- OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH ARRIVE FRIDAY,
INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
OUTSIDE OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET AND
DRY. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT HELPING TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN
INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES START THE
DAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S AHEAD OF OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY
RAINFALL AS A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
HELPS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER WITH WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TURNS BACK TO WARM,
DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING SETS UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OTHER THAN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE QUIET WEATHER COMES TO AN
END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PICTURE.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS WARM, BUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME. IN RESPONSE, LEE TROUGHING COMMENCES TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A RESULT WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL POSE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS WITH DRY STANDING CROPS WAITING TO BE HARVESTED.
THAT BEING SAID, INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA MAY HELP TO LIMIT THESE CONCERNS. WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 70S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST, A COLD FRONT
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AS WELL. CURRENTLY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SEES THE COLD FRONT BISECT THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A 40-70% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOSTLY CLEARS
THE REGION WITH 60S BACK IN THE FORECAST. A LEAST A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE WITH A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN APPEARING LIKELY. THE EXACT DETAILS DIFFER BETWEEN
FORECAST MODELS, BUT THESE DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND 5000-7000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAID CLOUDS
COULD ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SPOTTY
NATURE AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAVING HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF LNK,
NOT INCLUDING MENTION (20% CHANCE OF SEEING ANYTHING).
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY, WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 18-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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