882
FXUS63 KOAX 301859
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
159 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NIGHTLY FROST CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A FREEZE IN SOME LOCATIONS
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (UNDER 20%) AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON, FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SUNDAY EVENING.
- HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINNING
ACROSS SD. THERE WERE ALSO SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NE, WHICH COULD EDGE EASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVE US A FEW SPRINKLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE RAINFALL THOUGH. SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BUT AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
AND SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN THING TO
NOTE TONIGHT WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S, LOWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NE. ENDED UP
ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NE AND INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IA WHERE FORMATION LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE. FARTHER
EAST, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER AND
KEEP US A FEW DEGREES WARMER. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF
PATCHY FROST IN LOW-LYING AREAS, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD. REGARDLESS OF ADVISORY OR NOT, YOU'LL WANT TO THINK
ABOUT PROTECTING YOUR PLANTS.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER BIT OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND LEADING TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. ONCE AGAIN, NOT MUCH MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO ANY COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE
QUITE LOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY WORK IN
FRIDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FREEZE (MOST LIKELY IN
NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL START TO EDGE EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOWER
80S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE
FRONTS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO
CHANCES CURRENTLY REMAIN BELOW 20% FOR US THROUGH MONDAY WITH
ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP BEING PRETTY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW LOOKS
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER CA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE, WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLIDING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND STALLING
SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES IN, EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE FAVORS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING TO OUR SOUTH,
KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE, THOUGH A FEW VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SET THE FRONT UP ACROSS NE INSTEAD OF KS, SO
FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 60S THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD SCATTER
OUT/RISE WITH VFR FAVORED THEREAFTER AS 5000-9000 FT CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT IF THEY DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS (10-20%
CHANCE). WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH
GUSTS OF 18-24 KTS. THEY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WESTERLY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-
088>090-092.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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