183
FXUS63 KOAX 092310
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS,FOCUSED
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO HARLAN, IOWA WHERE
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HIGHS RETURN TO THE AND LOWS TO THE 60S INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SPOTS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE END OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH EXPECT
MUCH MORE DRY TIME THAN WET. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) ARE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITING THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, A
LARGELY SWEPT-OUT EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING FURTHER ONTO THE PACIFIC SHORE. TAKING A LOOK AT A RECENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS, WE FIND THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MESSY JUNCTION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT ARC FROM NEBRASKA/
EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE MAIN EFFECTIVE SURFACE LOWS EXIST WITH A
FEW TENDRILS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. THE BEST MOISTURE LOCALLY CONTINUES TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS RESULTED IN A BANK OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT ARE TRYING TO LIMIT HOW MUCH WE CAN HEAT UP SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
THROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS THAT HAD BEEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. ONLY A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, AND THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR AND PUSH
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM, WHICH APPEARS MOST LIKELY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO HARLAN, IOWA. FOR NOW, THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR FOG TO AFFECT THOSE AREAS WOULD BE FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM, WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY THEREAFTER. FROM THERE, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT BY SUNSET AFTER HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
BEGINNING THURSDAY, A WARMUP WILL BE FULL SWING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS AND HELPS PROP UP A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE IN THE MID 80S THURSDAY WITH A QUICK
JUMP INTO THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY. MODELS GUIDANCE IS AIMING ITS
HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AT FRIDAY FOR NEBRASKA BEFORE SHIFTING
IT INTO IOWA FOR SATURDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST, HIGHS FOR THE
HOTTEST STRETCH ARE CONSERVATIVE COMPARED TO THE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN, WHILE THE STRAIGHT BLENDS AND
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT BEING 2-5+ DEGREES WARMER COMPARATIVELY.
WITH A GENERAL LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE/OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY,
WE'LL DODGE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THAT BEING SAID, FOLKS
ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAVE BEEN ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S,
AND A 20-DEGREE JUMP COULD BE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM TO MANY AND
COULD SERVE AS A SNEAKY HEAT THREAT FOR THOSE THAT MAY PUSH IT
THIS WEEKEND GETTING YARD WORK DONE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WE'LL THANKFULLY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL CLOSER TO BUT STILL WARMER THAN THE
NORMAL SEPTEMBER RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL BE KICKED OFF BY THE EJECTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THAT FEATURE PUSHES THROUGH,
WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW KICKS IN AND SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH EARLY TO
MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
A SWATH OF FL045-020 CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
PATCHY FOG. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 10-15Z. ANTICIPATE KOFK DROPPING TO AT LEAST
4SM, WITH PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE. KOMA AND KLNK REMAIN
ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG, ACCORDING TO CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 5SM POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER, IF FOG MANAGES TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KG
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