520
FXUS63 KOAX 222328
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
- SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS DEVELOPED IN THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. NUMBERS MAY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A BROAD RIDGE
STRETCHED FROM COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S WITH SOME 60S EXPECTED TO
MIX IN BEFORE THE DIURNAL CURVE BEGINS TO POINT DOWN.
A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA IS BEGINNING TO
INITIATE SOME MIXED P-TYPE SHOWERS, LETTING US EASILY TRACK
IT'S LOCATION. THAT FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FINISH ITS PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING TO
MID-30S.
TUESDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME, BUT IT WILL
BE TEMPORARY. WE'LL STILL BE WELL ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMS.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE ALONG THE KANSAS STATE
LINE, BUT POINTS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD ANTICIPATE AN OVERALL DROP
OF 10-15 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY'S HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY
THE RIDGING REDEVELOPS ITS LARGE FOOTHOLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
AXIS FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
OUR TEMPS WILL REBOUND. EXPECT NUMBERS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
TODAY (FABULOUS 50S).
CHRISTMAS DAY (THURSDAY)
WOULDN'T YOU KNOW IT, THIS IS THE DAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE OMAHA METRO, SUGGESTING WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THANKFULLY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (90%) ON THE
AREA REMAINING DRY, BUT SOME GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY MEMBERS OF THE
EPS) IS NOW DEVELOPING SOME CLOUD COVER IN RESPONSE TO THE
WEAKEST LITTLE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI.
BLINK AND YOU'LL MISS IT. (DID THE GFS BLINK?) EC-ENS IS
PRODUCING A LOT OF COOLER SOLUTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY. THE NBM HAS
BEGUN TO DROP EXPECTED HIGHS AS A RESULT. THE GEFS AND GEPS
REMAIN ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. WITH
COLLABORATION OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE PUSHED THE NBM'S SFC
TEMPS UP A BIT TO PREVENT A YO-YO-ING OF THE FORECAST SHOULD THE
EC'S COOLER SOLUTION DISAPPEAR WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
PERSONALLY, I THINK IT'S TIME TO START BUYING IN TO THIS COOLER
FORECAST. IF IT MATERIALIZES, WE'D END UP WITH MORE COMMON 40S
FOR CHRISTMAS HIGHS INSTEAD OF THE POSSIBLE RECORD HEAT IN THE
GOING FORECAST. THE EC EVEN TRIES TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIP (RAIN SHOWER OR DRIZZLE) IN WEST-CENTRAL IOWA, THOUGH
POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME (10%).
THE WEEKEND
A COLD FRONT SLASHES THROUGH THE CORN BELT ON SATURDAY,
DELIVERING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (30S). UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WORRIED ABOUT
WORSENING DROUGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT FRONT
TO WRING ANY MOISTURE OUT OF IT. CAN'T SQUEEZE HYDROMETEORS
FROM A TURNIP. THIS IS PROBABLY GOOD NEWS FOR A HOST OF POST-
HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 10 KTS IN SPEED, JUST AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT
WILL SLOWLY TURN DIRECTIONS NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN NORTHEASTERLY MID-TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE THAT
WAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS UNDER 10
KTS. FEW TO SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VFR, THOUGH
JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, WE'LL SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POISED TO FALL GOING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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