286  
FNUS75 KPIH 090325  
FWSPIH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACKTAIL FIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID  
925 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2100 MDT ON JULY 08.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 208-232-9357 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IN THE GENERAL REGION OVER THE FIRE WILL  
BE A FEW MORE DRY-LEANING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR VIRGA POTENTIALLY  
PRODUCING A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OR A FEW ROGUE/ERRATIC WIND  
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS TREND THIS ACTIVITY  
DOWN BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT  
A SURPRISE DRY-LEANING NEARBY SHOWER OR VIRGA OVERNIGHT AS WELL.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY, ALL THREE ELEMENTS PEAKING  
DURING THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR  
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY/ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT AND  
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER THE  
FIRE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM. OVERALL COVERAGE MAY STAY ISOLATED  
AND IT'S ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF THE FIRE WILL RECEIVE A  
DIRECT HIT WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT, BUT WINDS AND  
LIGHTNING WILL DEFINITELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO WATCH OUT  
FOR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS THE  
REGION JUST AFTER SUNSET WITH OVERALL WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE  
NORTHWEST.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS PRODUCING GUSTY  
WINDS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH  
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55 TO 59 DEGREES.  
MAX HUMIDITY........50 TO 55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.01 INCHES.  
   
WEDNESDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND  
GUSTS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM.  
CWR.................25 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF THUNDER...25 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77 TO 81 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........16 TO 21 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS  
HIGH AS 55 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.10 INCHES.  
 
 
 
FORECASTER...KSMITH  
REQUESTED BY...TARA KURTZBEIN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2517635.0/PIH  
.DELDT 07/08/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL IDCIC@FIRENET.GOV,GABRIELLE.PILKERTON@USDA.GOV  
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