281
FXUS65 KSLC 070403
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1003 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
UTAH. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL SET IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE
NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH AREAS SUCH AS THE SANPETE
VALLEY AND WESTERN UINTA BASIN UNDER A FREEZE WARNING. A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THESE WILL PRIMARILY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK BEFORE
THE NEAR RECORD- BREAKING HEAT SETTLES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THESE WAVES, BUT THERE COULD BE
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NEAR THE IDAHO AND WYOMING
BORDERS.
BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS ST. GEORGE. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF A ~588 DM RIDGE CENTERING ITSELF ACROSS ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SLC ON MONDAY
IS 92 (GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS), AND THE RECORD FOR THE DAY IS 91 DEGREES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR ARE FORECAST
FOR THE ST. GEORGE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE
HEAT RISK ACROSS MOST VALLEYS OF UTAH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER WHICH
WOULD REDUCE THE HEAT RISK AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR 0% FOR MOST OF
THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. SOME MOISTURE DOES START TO CREEP INTO THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH FUELS TRENDING TOWARD CRITICAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
AVIATION...KSLC
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN AND SHIFT ~18-21Z THURSDAY, AND
BACK TO SE AROUND 03-05Z THEREAFTER FRIDAY. SOME MODEST GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH VFR SKIES CHARACTERIZED BY SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL FOLLOW
A NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN, IF NOT FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. SOME MODEST GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AT MANY TERMINALS, WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 KTS AT SE WY TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
UTAH WILL REMAIN IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH FUELS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL COMBINE TO BRING LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO HOT TEMPERATURES (MORE AKIN TO SUMMER THAN LATE
SPRING), SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ114-118.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page