772
FXUS65 KSLC 091023
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
323 AM MST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE BEEHIVE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- THERE IS LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 9 INCHES IN THE WASATCH RANGE, 6 INCHES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UTAH MOUNTAINS IN ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AFTER TYING THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT SLC SUNDAY (64,
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2015), TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH. AT 230 AM, THE SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT IS STILL 54F,
WHICH IS ABOUT 12 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE.
EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN AN ACTIVE AND CHAOTIC NORTHERN STREAM
IS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN UTAH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH LATER TODAY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. EXPECT
GENERALLY 0.10-0.30" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-84, QUICKLY DECREASING SOUTH OF I-84. FOR THE
VALLEYS, THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...NEAR 0.15"...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CACHE VALLEY, WITH ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT. THIS LOW CHANCE IS A
COMBINATION OF VERY DRY PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS (THE RH AT THE SLC
AIRPORT THIS MORNING IS 25%) AND WEAK FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WASATCH FRONT AND OTHER
NORTHERN UTAH LOCATIONS WILL BE EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH ANY MEMBER TO MEMBER
COHERENCY IN THE COVERAGE/DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION, TRYING TO TIME SUBTLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AT THIS POINT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE STATE TO SEE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY (25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE), WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AS FAR AS MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD, LOOKING AT AROUND 2 TO
6 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 9 INCHES
FOR THE UPPER COTTONWOODS...2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS (BOTH RANGES ARE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE). GIVEN THESE AMOUNTS, THE PROBABILITY OF ADVISORY
AMOUNTS IS LESS THAN 30% FOR ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO NO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.
UTAH WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, THOUGH BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR ANY IMPACTS.
BY FRIDAY, THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY KICK OUT OF THE AREA WITH
ANOTHER STORM POSSIBLE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT THE
TERMINAL. LOWERING CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF
A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 18-20Z,
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY PUSH CIGS <6KFT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE TAPERING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS TODAY. A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PASS THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN WYOMING SITES LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL BRING LOWERED CIGS AND PERIODS OF
TERRAIN OBSCURATION FOR THESE SITES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, TRANSITIONING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, EXPECT LIGHTER, TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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