898
FXUS65 KSLC 152346
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
545 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1223 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A DRYING TREND DEVELOPS TODAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS LOCATIONS SUCH AS
JUAB / MILLARD COUNTIES, SANPETE VALLEY, AND HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1223 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A MID-LEVEL LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
OFF OF THE DEPARTING LOW, SPINNING UP ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THIS WON'T SURMOUNT TO MUCH, OTHER THAN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
PHASE INTO THE MEAN FLOW AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE AREA.
WITH AMPLE CLEARING AND HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT TONIGHT, FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
THE SEVIER AND SANPETE VALLEYS, THOUGH HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
WITHIN JUAB/MILLARD COUNTIES AND SOUTHWESTERN UT MAY SEE BRIEF
DIPS BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BENEATH
ESTABLISHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ROBUST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TONIGHT ACROSS THE SPECIFIED LOCATIONS.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING A SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
FORECAST AREA MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY TRENDING
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION, THOUGH FORCING REMAINS MODEST
AMONG MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS THE TROUGH LOOKS TO AMPLIFY FURTHER
EAST. ROUGHLY ~30% OF GUIDANCE HAS THIS OCCURRING OVER UT, RESULTING
IN HEAVIER MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TOTALS AND LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL
TOTALS, AS WELL AS BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN MARKEDLY COMPARED TO
OTHER SUITES. AS THE LAST FEW FORECASTS HAVE SPECIFIED, THIS
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER ROUGHLY 02Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR NORTHERN UTAH TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, THEN REDEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1223 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPING CONDITIONS MODERATED AND
CALM. WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS COOL AND STABLE, CLEAR SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, CLOSER TO
NEAR-NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEARLY ALL OF UT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SYSTEM
WHICH IS FORECAST TO USHER IN MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDWEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
UTZ116-118-119.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
HYDROLOGY...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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