583
FXUS65 KSLC 311930
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
130 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE INCREASING IN LIKELIHOOD
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH.
- AS TEMPERATURES WARM, THE CHANCE OF MODERATE HEATRISK INCREASES
TO ABOVE 50% ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND NORTHWEST UTAH BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE OVER
UTAH CURRENTLY WHILE THE STORM TRACK REMAINS ACTIVE TO THE NORTH.
THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE A WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE IS GRAZING NORTHERN
UTAH CURRENTLY. A THIRD TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE PACNW. THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH TODAY WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
WEAK HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL UTAH
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MORE ACROSS
THE UINTA BASIN AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, OTHERWISE THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL TREND WARMER FOR
TODAY WHILE STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL TAKE ITS TURN GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH
TOMORROW. AS SUCH, EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND, WITH WEAK HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/VIRGA OVERNIGHT (BUT FOCUSED MORE OVER NORTHERN UTAH), WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW, AND AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS.
THE NEXT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AGAIN, CAN EXPECT SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD
REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH. THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS
WILL BRING ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO POSE A CONCERN FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER, BASED
ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MINORITY WITH AROUND 40% OF MEMBERS COMPARED
TO 60% FOR THE LESS-AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS WITH WEAKER WINDS.
THERE IS BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ONTO
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH GIVEN
STRONGER FORECAST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS STORM COMBINED WITH A DRY
AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING INTO THE 90S IN MANY VALLEYS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, HEATRISK WILL INCREASE. ON SATURDAY, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD 50% CHANCE OR GREATER OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT AND GREAT SALT LAKE DESERTS, AND 30% CHANCE OR
GREATER IN THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
FIRE WEATHER
UTAH WILL MOSTLY REMAIN UNDER A DRIER AND WARMER
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE THE STORM
TRACK TO THE NORTH REMAINS ACTIVE. WEATHER DISTURBANCES GRAZING
NORTHERN UTAH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOK TO BE A BIT DEEPER, WHICH
COULD DRIVE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE
TOMORROW, THEN RISE TO 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15% IN MOST VALLEYS BY
TUESDAY, TRENDING MORE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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