676
FXUS65 KSLC 300429
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS STILL HIGH WITH EACH ONE.
THE FIRST WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A COLDER, LIKELY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR LIGHT VALLEY SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- EARLY SEASON AGRICULTURE WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND FROST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD BUT VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS EVENING, WITH UTAH UNDER A
WARM WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-4
DEGREES COOLER, THIS AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND HEIGHTS FALL.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE PACNW AND
MONTANA ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS TROUGH, AND AS A RESULT, THE
FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND STALL NOT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
I-80. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR TUESDAY, AFTERNOON
MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 3-8 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. SOME WEAK SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, STRENGTHENING
A BIT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MOST MOUNTAINS HAVE A 40% TO A GREATER THAN 65% CHANCE OF SEEING
OVER 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, WHILE MANY VALLEYS EXCEPT THE
DRIER EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE A 30% TO A GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF
SEEING OVER 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, HIGHEST ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT. WITH THE AIRMASS TRENDING COOLER, SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 7.5-8KFT. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH LOW SNOW RATIOS WILL LARGELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, THE ADVERTISED COLDER AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL THEN
IMPACT THE AREA, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT
MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA THURSDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO BRING H7 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -10C OR COLDER ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE VALLEY
FLOORS. WHILE THE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONTAL
BAND WILL LIKELY LIMIT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS A
GREATER THAN 85% CHANCE OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER IN THE
UPPER COTTONWOODS AND A GREATER THAN 65% CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND IN ALL
AREAS BY FRIDAY, THIS AFTER OUR LONG STRETCH OF ABNORMALLY AND
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, MANY VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE IN OUTLYING AREAS, ARE LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD AFFECT ANY EARLY
SEASON AGRICULTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY TREND WARMER
AGAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE 16-18Z
TIMEFRAME.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TERRAIN DRIVEN
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL HAVE A LIGHT
NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES, WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ277.
CHENG/SEAMAN
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