439
FXUS65 KSLC 280818
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1009 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS,
WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING IN
TURN BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1009 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY, EVENING SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, GRADUALLY PUSHING A CORRESPONDINGLY STRONG COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AS IT DOES SO. WITH WANING INSTABILITY MOVING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER.
A LOW END SHOWER CHANCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVERGENT
ZONE OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE CORE OF THE BROAD TROUGH
AS LOBES OF EMBEDDED ENERGY CONTINUE TO RIPPLE THROUGH.
WITH THE SLOW DEEPENING AND MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH, THE
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL ALSO REMAIN SLOW. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY PROGRESS AS FAR AS
A LINE FROM ABOUT SOUTHWEST UTAH UP THROUGH NORTHWEST COLORADO. A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, ON THE ORDER OF
10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE
WASATCH FRONT FOR EXAMPLE LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO EARLY OCTOBER
RATHER THAN LATE JUNE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WILL ALSO STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY (~10-40% CHANCE). GIVEN THE COLD AIR, SOME OF THE HIGH
NORTHERN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET OR SO WILL ACTUALLY HAVE
POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT CLOSER
TO NORMAL, AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE MODEST THAN THE PRIOR DAYS, DAYTIME GUSTS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR/UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE
AROUND 30-40 MPH OR SO. SOME GUSTS ON HIGHER RIDGELINES AND
EXPOSED TERRAIN MAY PEAK CLOSER TO 45-50 MPH. WHILE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS, IT'LL REMAIN
LOW ENOUGH THAT IN COMBINATION WITH THE GUSTS EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS
WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACCORDINGLY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION, AND THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LIMITED SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE TO AN EXTENT
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH WINDS RELAX, MORNING LOWS IN
SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS (SUCH AS THE CACHE) AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
SUCH AS THE WASATCH BACK WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FROST. MODELS SUPPORT A LOBE OF THE TROUGH THEN CUTTING OFF AND
DIVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER, WHILE THE
BROADER TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT AND EJECT OUT OF THE REGION. IN
TURN, THE FRONT MORE OR LESS STALLS AND STARTS WASHING OUT, AND
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY
START TO INCREASE, THOUGH REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN MUCH MORE MODEST.
MOVING TOWARDS MIDWEEK ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
BROAD W CONUS TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOBE WITHIN THIS
BROADER TROUGHING WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SETUP WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, AND ALLOW A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS, MOSTLY IN THE HIGH UINTAS. BY THURSDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW EXACTLY THE MEAN WESTERN TROUGH EVOLVES,
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME DEEPENING TO IT AND IN TURN
ENHANCEMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, WOULD
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO TREND UPWARDS UNTIL THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OR
EJECTS OUT OF THE AREA, WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY (AND FAIRLY EQUALLY WEIGHTED IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS).
AVIATION, ISSUED 1009 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KSLC...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER ~9Z. NORTHWEST WINDS REINVIGORATE AFTER 18Z,
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW-END (10%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22-00Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AIRSPACE WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
STRONG AGAIN WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE LOW-
END (10-20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT
TERMINALS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MAIN CONCERNS BEING LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF DECREASED CIGS.
FIRE WEATHER
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GRAND STAIRCASE, HENRY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN RAFAEL SWELL. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLOR
COUNTRY MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489-494-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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