683
FXUS65 KSLC 132148
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM SET TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SET IN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS,
THROUGH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
KEY POINTS:
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.
- INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PEAK ON
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IS NOTED FOR
LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS HELPING TO
USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA IN TURN, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 150-200% OF NORMAL. AS SUCH, AREA RADARS
ARE PICKING UP ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS/MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN INCREASING DESTABILIZATION
IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION, AND ANYTHING THAT TRACKS OVER A RAIN
SENSITIVE BASIN WILL CARRY POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THAT SAID, STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING STORMS TO MOVE ALONG AT A
DECENT PACE (MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS OR SO) WHICH WILL
LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER SUCH AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY
POTENTIAL TRAILING/TRAINING CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY FROM THE INITIAL WAVE WILL START TO WANE
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH DAYTIME HEATING THEN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH. ADDITIONALLY, AS
FASTER LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN GIVEN THE DEEP SYSTEM, WILL SEE SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES
REMAIN MORE CLOUD FREE. IN GENERAL, BEST SIGNAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH IS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, AND AS
SUCH HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, BECOMING MAXIMIZED AS
IT PASSES, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THEREAFTER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM SINKS IN. LOOKING AT FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS
THROUGH THE EVENT, PROBABILITIES HAVEN'T SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT STILL APPEARS REASONABLE THAT THERE IS AROUND
A 30-50% CHANCE OF 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND A 25-35% CHANCE FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST UTAH. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL START AROUND
9000 FT OR HIGHER, FALLING TO AROUND 7000 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN. AS SUCH, WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SEE
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL FINALLY START
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING
APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH (IN REGARDS TO LOWER ELEVATION
PLACES THAT HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED ONE YET). THAT SAID, BOTH NIGHTS
LOOK LIKE THEY'LL HANG ONTO SOME AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND IF THIS
CLOUD COVER IS TOO EXPANSIVE IT MAY PREVENT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS SUBSTANTIALLY. ALL THE
SAME, BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR YOUR
SPECIFIC AREA IF YOU HAVE ANY COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO TEND TO.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PATTERN FLIP BACK TO MORE RIDGE
DOMINANT. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM BY EARLY
IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS (INCLUDING TIMING/STRENGTH), SO CONFIDENCE IN
ANY DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BUILDING IN. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ROUGHLY 02-09Z WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ISOLATED STRONGER SHOWERS CAPABLE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, TAPERING OFF IN FAR
NORTHERN UTAH AROUND 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A BROAD PACIFIC SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN,
RESULTING IN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH,
MODESTLY GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME
MAXIMIZED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
AROUND 7000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ122-123.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WILSON
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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