019
FXUS65 KSLC 191119
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL START THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
SOUTHERN UTAH.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY, WITH DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH ARE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AS ONE STORM SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TRACKS IN
FROM THE WEST. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL TRACK INLAND
THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK ON THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH A TRACK NEAR THE NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND UTAH BORDER. THE
PRIOR STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT SUFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR SNOW
TO ALMOST ALL VALLEYS, AND WITH THIS BEING ANOTHER COLD TROUGH,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR ALL BUT LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY AND LAKE POWELL, WHERE SNOW WILL MIX IN.
HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NEAR, BUT NORTH OF, THE UTAH AND ARIZONA BORDER.
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AROUND 1 P.M. AND
EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY GET THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION, AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE
MOST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE AND MUCH OF THE TERRAIN GETS
UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL GET SNOW, WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL TOWNS LIKE
HILDALE, ORDERVILLE, KANAB, AND ESCALANTE TO GET 4-10 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
ZION NATIONAL PARK AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE
SAN RAFAEL SWELL AND CASTLE COUNTRY, WHERE UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOOST SNOWFALL.
AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST, FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY, WITH A DRYING TREND FAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS DRYING.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF
NORTHERN UTAH. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
THAT IS LOWER THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND LAST INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA TO OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE WHEN THAT WOULD EJECT INLAND. THERE WILL BE A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THEN, WITH VALLEYS WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEADING TO INTERMITTENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY, BUT LIKELY (70%
CHANCE) REMAINING SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL
AIRSPACE ALONG. ELSEWHERE, JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ108-110>113-117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ116-118-119.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR UTZ117.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ120-121-129-130.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR UTZ122-126-127.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR UTZ124-128.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WILSON
AVIATION...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page