966
FXUS65 KSLC 071013
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
413 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT INTO
SOUTHWEST WY. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAPABLE OF
GUSTS TO 50MPH WITH SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58MPH.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN UT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL UT ON
WEDNESDAY AS GUSTS INCREASE WITH A DECREASE IN RH.
- PROBABILITIES FOR A NOTABLE HEAT WAVE DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK
CONTINUE TO INCREASE RESULTING IN AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING
STATEWIDE. VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AND/OR EXCEED
100F SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS RESULTING IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OFF THE WEST COAST OF BC. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST WITH TIME. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND
WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WY. GIVEN MODEST DCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-
1800J/KG EACH AFTERNOON, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50MPH ARE
EXPECTED, AND A FEW SEVERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
OF THE TWO DAYS, WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CEILING
THAN TUESDAY, PRIMARILY REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE AND GUST
MAGNITUDE. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
THE REGION PROVIDING MORE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FAVORING WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL FLOW RANGING
FROM 40-50KTS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN UT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, SERVING TO INCREASE EFF. SHEAR TO ROUGHLY 20-30KTS,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND LONG-LIVED
CONVECTION. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE GUSTS TO
AROUND 70MPH, THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW LEAVES SOME TO BE DESIRED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SETUPS. LASTLY, ML GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS
NORTHERN UT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO CA. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS, HINDERING
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT OUTSIDE OF HIGHER TERRAIN
EACH AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES AREN'T FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT STAGNANT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ON FRIDAY, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF PROLONGED HEAT, VERY DRY
AIR, AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ON FRIDAY, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH 100F WITH MUCH OF THE WEST DESERT SEEING
TEMPERATURES BREAK INTO THE 100S. ON SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK INTO THE 100S WITH LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY FLIRTING WITH 110F. THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR WITH SOME POCKETS OF EXTREME APPEARING ACROSS THE WASATCH
FRONT ON SUNDAY.
SOME RELIEF APPEARS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STRONG RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST SOMEWHAT.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FAVORABLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS SOUTHERN UT, PERHAPS INTO NORTHERN
UT BY MID-JULY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF OUR FIRST MEANINGFUL MONSOONAL PATTERN OF THE YEAR, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1042 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KSLC...WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WITH
SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS LINGERING ABOVE ~12 KFT. WINDS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT NW AROUND 18-20Z. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ERRATIC GUSTY
OUTFLOWS, THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT IS AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR SKIES WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...FORECAST PATTERN FOR TUESDAY
LOOKS SIMILAR TO THAT OF MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM LINGERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, THOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN MONDAY, AND
FAVORING AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. STILL, THIS WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WHICH WOULD INTERRUPT THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CYCLE IF NEAR ANY TERMINALS. SKIES LARGELY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ABOVE
10 KFT. AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED, WITH
FAIRLY TYPICAL WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA, ALLOWING A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD INTO UTAH THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE TODAY WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY INITIATING OVER AND
NEAR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST UTAH AND
SHIFTING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS TO THE EAST. WHILE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF WETTING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN HIGH-BASED, RESULTING IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. AS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA, THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL THEN DECREASE
EACH DAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN UTAH.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT, THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH THAT, WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING HUMIDITIES,
ISOLATED TO MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER UTAH, BRINGING DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. VALLEYS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PAIRED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER, A POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE IS ON THE HORIZON,
WHICH COULD BRING A COOLING TREND AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
WETTING RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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