340
FXUS65 KSLC 241749
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1149 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WHERE FUELS ARE DRY OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH ON
TUESDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER WITH HIGHER GUSTS MORE WIDESPREAD ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN UTAH LINGERING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
A FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE
REGION TODAY AS IT DID YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, MOISTURE CONTENT IS
GREATER ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. THAT SAID, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN FEATURES OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS WAS THE CASE
WITH YESTERDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING, AND ANY THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LOOSELY DEFINED RIDGE AXIS PUSHING INTO UTAH TODAY WILL CREST
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING, HELPING TO FURTHER INCREASE
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THEIR PEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS, LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, USHERING IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA (NORTHERN/ CENTRAL UT, SOUTHWEST WY)
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITY BY TUESDAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE. WITH THE WARMEST OVERHEAD
TEMPERATURES DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
LINGERING IN THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD. AS A
RESULT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE FAIRLY LOW (20-40% CHANCE DEPENDING ON WHERE IN THE AREA YOU
ARE... HIGH TERRAIN FAVORED), BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. BREEZY CONDITIONS PAIRING WITH DRY SURFACE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS MAY PAIR TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THESE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MAY CREATE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROUTES
EXPERIENCING CROSSWINDS AND COULD PICK UP LOOSE DEBRIS, YARD
DECORATIONS, AND OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (50-90% CHANCE) OF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH OVER CARBON AND EMERY COUNTY ON BOTH OF THESE
DAYS, WITH THE SECOND HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREA (20-50% CHANCE)
OVER WESTERN JUAB, MILLARD, AND BEAVER COUNTIES.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH A 30% OF CONVECTION EXISTS BETWEEN 20-23Z AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE O'QUIRRHS AND SLIDES INTO THE VALLEY.
A LATER THAN USUAL WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE MEAN SWITCH AROUND 21Z, BUT AS EARLY AS 19Z
AND AS LATE AS 23Z. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
VARIABLE WINDS. A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BY 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AIRSPACE THAT
COULD PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING NEARBY
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TYPICALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ALONGSIDE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
UTAH THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT TUESDAY AS THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA ALONGSIDE HIGH
PROBABILITY (80-95% CHANCE) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH. WHILE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT MORE MARGINAL. THAT SAID, ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASES IN WINDS,
PERIODS OF ELEVATED MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF UTAH
(VARYING EACH DAY) FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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