535
FXUS65 KSLC 040355
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
955 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING TO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PASSES BY, WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING TO EASTERN UTAH TUESDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
- TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ALLOW MILD TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD PACIFIC LOW IS SLOWLY ROTATING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING. UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAINS UNDER
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AND THAT FLOW
IS DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
STORMS EARLIER WERE MORE DISCRETE, WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, AND
THIS BROUGHT SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH AREAS LIKE ST. GEORGE,
CEDAR CITY, AND KANAB SEEING PERIODS OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AND
OVERALL THE SHOWERS HAVE COALESCED. THIS HAS DECREASED THE THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS SOMEWHAT, BUT THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE ELONGATING LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY
MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD
SHOWING LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, SO THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED OVERALL. STILL, THE
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS REMAINS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
INVERTED-V PROFILES.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. MOST GUIDANCE YESTERDAY SHOWED IT MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATEST
GUIDANCE IS PULLING THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FARTHER WEST AT THAT TIME, BLOCKING THE
PACIFIC LOW AND LIKELY CAUSING IT TO DIMINISH OR AT LEAST WEAKEN,
AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
AND NORTHEAST UTAH. THIS CHANGE BRINGS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TUESDAY TO THOSE AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT, THOUGH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS AT
LEAST MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS TRACK OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TROUGH WOULD ALSO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
TO EASTERN UTAH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A BROAD
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SOME OUTLIER GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS), SHOW A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT BACK WEST, ALLOWING A TROUGH
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONSIDERING HOW THIS WINTER AND SPRING HAVE BEEN, AM SKEPTICAL
ABOUT THE TROUGH POTENTIAL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM 3-5KTS AROUND MIDNIGHT TO PREVAILING 8-
10KTS BY 11-12Z. OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UT COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS AROUND 08-10Z, OR,
IF NOT QUITE REACHING THE SURFACE, A PERIOD OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SPEED SHEAR ~20KTS. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 35KTS
BRIEFLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, LARGELY WEAKENING BEFORE
REACHING THE WASATCH FRONT. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY S WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN UT
AFTER ~06-07Z. THE LIGHTNING THREAT HAS LARGELY ENDED, THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 19Z
ACROSS PRIMARILY N-UT/SW-WY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY VIS REDUCTIONS FROM BLDU.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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