324
FXUS65 KSLC 191017
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 951 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FROM STORM
ACTIVITY THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR BURN SCARS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UTAH.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 951 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
QUICKLY WANING ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER
ROUGHLY NOON ON SUNDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS FAVORED AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH PWAT VALUES 1+" LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH WEAK EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH BRINGS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS DROPPING INTO THE
0.7-0.9" RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-80, AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL UTAH ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THE MONSOON PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD, THOUGH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ATTENDANT FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS TUESDAY FOR A WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK, AS EVIDENCED BY THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK CONTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY, A SURGE IN DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD TUESDAY, WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT GREATEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FAVORING AREAS TO OUR WEST, WITH PWATS GRADUALLY TAPERING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, MOISTURE
WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR THE
TIME BEING.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1028 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KSLC...SOME LINGERING VFR CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ABOVE 10 KFT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SE. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NW ~17-19Z WITH LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. INDIRECTLY,
ANY CONVECTION IN REASONABLE PROXIMITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. IN GENERAL THOUGH, ANTICIPATE VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH WINDS RETURNING SE SUNDAY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...CONVECTION AROUND THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER WANE, WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS WASHING OUT
AND WINDS RETURNING TO A LIGHT AND DIURNALLY NORMAL TO VARIABLE
DIRECTION. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VFR CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER.
SUNDAY WILL THEN SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG
AND ADJACENT TO UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN. STRONGER ACTIVITY DIRECTLY OVER
AREA TERMINALS WILL BRING AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, AND INDIRECTLY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
A MIX OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL BE ON THE DRIER
SIDE TODAY (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS). LIKE
CLOCKWORK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, AS WELL
AS THE UINTA MOUNTAINS, AROUND 1200. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW
OVERHEAD, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY (10-15 MPH) TO
THE WEST INTO ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS. THAT SAID, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, BRINGING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE OVERALL HIGHER
HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER, MOISTURE LACKING IN NORTHERN
UTAH (PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST DESERT) WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO
FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT UTAH, AREAS IN
NORTHWEST UTAH MAY SEE SOME OF THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WE'VE SEEN
SINCE RIGHT BEFORE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARRIVED.
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
POTENTIAL DRYING OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS UTAH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ122>128.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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