234
FXUS65 KSLC 311126
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
526 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 949 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- THE NEXT MONSOON SURGE IS INCREASING IN PROBABILITY AS EARLY AS
NEXT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 949 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A
BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
NEARLY 600 DAM HIGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT, VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO UTAH. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
WASATCH FRONT AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH MANY OTHER AREAS
UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WITH THIS
PACKAGE FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES.
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY
MORNING, QUICKLY RETREATING NORTH BEFORE A STRONGER, BUT DRIER
COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MONDAY. WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING ACTIVE, ADDITIONAL WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTS
WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL SEE LESS MODERATION, ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL MONSOON SURGE LOOKS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN UTAH AS
EARLY AS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY SPLIT
IN TIMING, WITH AROUND 50% OF MEMBERS INDICATING A MONSOON SURGE
WOULD START AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY. THAT'S THE NEXT REAL SHOT
FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE REGION, HOWEVER. THIS LONG, HOT,
DRY PERIOD WILL LIKELY EXASPERATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ELEVATED
WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING HAZY SKIES, BUT NO SURFACE VIS REDUCTIONS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 19-20Z, WITH A SHIFT
BACK TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE VALID TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCING HAZY SKIES BUT NO
SURFACE VIS REDUCTIONS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRING PERIODIC
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO KEVW AND THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 355 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED DRYING TREND ALONG
WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY, ISOLATED AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
UTAH BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SPREADING ACROSS MOST WESTERN
UTAH VALLEYS TODAY, AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING VALLEYS BY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES IN THE 15-25% RANGE. MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY SEE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 15% OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MOST VALLEYS SEEING HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER NEXT WEEK WILL
WEAKEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH ON MONDAY. NEAR THIS COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE, AND
COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, WILL BRING LOCALLY
CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT,
WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
MODELS ARE SIGNALING A POTENTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ101-
114>116-120>122.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ102-104>106.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ123-124-128>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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