972
FXUS65 KSLC 281725
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1125 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BRINGING WETTER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A PROLONGED VALLEY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EVENT LOOKS TO
CONTINUE FROM AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY LOW LEVELS
WITH MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM IN ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PRIMARILY LIGHT UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY ENABLING AMPLE SURFACE MIXING TO OCCUR. WITH JUST
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE AREA. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ABUNDANT ACROSS HI-RES GUIDANCE YIELDING DCAPE RANGING FROM ROUGHLY
600-900J/KG, INCREASING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND
LACK OF DAYLIGHT, STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AROUND 6-7PM AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ALONG THE EASTERNMOST EDGE OF BOX ELDER
AND TOOELE COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 40-50MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
ON SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT AS MID-
LEVEL ASCENT HAS WEAKENED ACROSS GUIDANCE WITH LOWER MOISTURE
QUALITY. IF AT ALL, AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD REMAIN HIGHLY ISOLATED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH. ON MONDAY, SOMEWHAT HIGHER
QUALITY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN STREAM INCREASING POPS TO ROUGHLY 20% ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UT HIGH TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COME THE EVENING HOURS,
INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM SWINGS DOWN AND PHASES INTO THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
KEEPING POPS ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN UT MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REGARDING A PATTERN SHIFT TUESDAY,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS UT
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
MOISTENING THE PBL AND INCREASING POPS INCREASING FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS ACROSS N AND CENTRAL UT AS WELL AS SW WY TO
AROUND 30-60% TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE TO AROUND 60-80% WITH OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE
AND HIGHER QUALITY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN
PRECEDING WARM CONDITIONS, SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
7000FT AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES KEEPING MOST AREAS SOCKED IN
WITH RAIN OTHER THAN THE UPPER COTTONWOODS, BEAR RIVER RANGE, AND
HIGH UINTAS, WHERE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS
THEN INCREASE TO 8000-8500FT LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES CONTROL ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING MORE RAIN TO MIX IN
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
A BRIEF LULL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
FEATURE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LINGER WITH ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT, PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLAY FOR
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WITH POPS GENERALLY HOVERING
AROUND 40-60%.
BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. INITIALLY, A FEW WEAK
IMPULSES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MAIN TROUGH UP TOWARDS THE PNW
AND TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN UT. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
ASCENT AND ASSIST IN DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND DIVES SE TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEST DESERT,
SOUTHWEST UT, AND SOUTHEAST UT GENERALLY SEEING POPS AROUND 30-60%,
THE I-15 CORRIDOR AND SW WY RANGING FROM 60-80%, AND HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS SEEING 80%+. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL AS THIS INITIAL PUSH WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM,
KEEPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000-8500FT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER
THURSDAY MORNING, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000-6000FT
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN VIA
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DROP TO AS LOW
AS 4000-4500FT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN, PARTICULARLY REGARDING POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING IN AND PRECIPITATION RATES AS THIS WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR
VALLEY SNOW EARLIER THIS SEASON, OR ANY OTHER REGULAR SEASON FOR
THAT MATTER. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OF
SNOWFALL ALONG THE VALLEY FLOORS OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UT RANGE FROM 30-50%. THIS WILL, HOWEVER, ABSOLUTELY
CHANGE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. GIVEN PRECEDING WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT, ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME, IF AT ALL.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF OTHER WAVES THAT LOOK TO PROPAGATE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC. REGARDLESS, WET AND COOL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO
CONTINUE PAST THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...KSLC
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 02-03Z.
NEARBY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA PASSING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 23-03Z,
COULD MAKE WINDS A LITTLE BIT SQUIRRELLY AND/OR TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY A BIT SOONER, THOUGH THESE CHANCES ARE LOW. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
MOST AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO AROUND 20-25KTS
BEFORE LIGHTER, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS PREVAIL AFTER AROUND 01-03Z OR
SO. RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS, MAINLY ACROSS AN AREA BETWEEN KENV-KDTA-KSVR-KHCR
BETWEEN 21-04Z AS THEY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 25-35KTS AT TIMES, THOUGH THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT WINDS
REACH UP TO 45KTS IN A COUPLE ISOLATED AREAS. BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ277.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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