043
FXUS65 KSLC 231645
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1045 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY,
RETURNING TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THURSDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF CEDAR CITY FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS SOUTH OF CEDAR CITY WILL COOL 1 TO
4 DEGREES OR SO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION IS SUNDAY, MARCH 29.
DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST FOR THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY A STORY
OF AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM TEMPORARILY FLATTENING THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH DRY COLD FRONTS CROSSING THE STATE...UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN AT LEAST PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE (AS OF THE
00Z RUNS, ABOUT 40-50% OF MEMBERS) BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPS MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST.
FOR NOW, AFTER A "COOLER" DAY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...ANOTHER
DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE BY TUESDAY.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM HAS DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
BY A DEGREE OR TWO...KEEPING THESE TEMPERATURES BELOW ALL TIME
MARCH RECORDS. NOTE THAT WHILE SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS SUGGEST 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 11C OR GREATER (AND
THUS A HIGH NEAR 86F), KSLC SITS ON THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THESE
VERY WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES. AROUND 65% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CURRENTLY FORECAST A 700MB TEMPERATURE IN EXCESS OF 10C BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY ABOUT 20% IN EXCESS OF 11C. THIS WILL
ROUGHLY EQUATE TO A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SLC BETWEEN 82-84F.
A STRONG, BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER "COOLER" AIRMASS
INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH THURSDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MOST OF UTAH THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND
A 25% CHANCE WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH IN THE WESTERN UINTA
BASIN AND CASTLE COUNTRY (TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE WINDS POST-FRONTAL).
THIS FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN THE GUIDANCE...REPRESENTED BY A
DECREASE IN THE PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY WINDS THURSDAY IN
THESE AREAS.
BY SATURDAY, WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE FIRST REAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT MONDAY AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PULLS DEEP MOISTURE INTO UTAH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PREFERENTIAL JET DYNAMICS.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND/OR
KEEPING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST. 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE
APPROXIMATELY 40% WITH THIS DEEPER SOLUTION AND 60% RANGING FROM A
SHALLOW BRUSH-BY TO MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING. MODEL TRENDS WILL BE
INTERESTING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT SAID, BY AND
LARGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE WARM GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TIER PATH OF
THIS SYSTEM...AND SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH, WITH OVER
95% OF SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING SNOW LEVELS 9000 FEET OR HIGHER
SUNDAY, 80% BY MONDAY MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DENSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A DENSE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY, EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE IT WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN,
WILL BECOME LIGHT IN THE EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ277.
KRUSE/MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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