947  
FXUS65 KSLC 150406  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
1006 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM  
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE  
STATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
 
THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITCOL AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTS WILL  
CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. FROM THERE THIS FEATURE WILL EXHIBIT SOME  
WEAKEN WITH JUST A SMALL CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE  
RESIDUAL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER  
TROUGH BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND  
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WELL MIXED AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE  
STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WITH READING  
GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
THE MOISTURE POOLED OVER ARIZONA WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH  
TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY. THE  
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR  
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE  
ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO SCOULDOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND  
DRAW IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE BEGINNING  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP  
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ALONG AND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A  
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG  
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND  
STRONGEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF  
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK DIVE BETWEEN  
15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MORE MODEST 5 TO 12 DEGREE  
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL  
BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY  
DROPPING DOWN NEAR 7000 FEET DURING THIS PRECIP EVENT.  
   
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)
 
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE MID-WEEK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS  
ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN  
LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE  
PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THE DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS SEEM TO BE IN A  
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING.  
 
THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE WILL APPROACH UTAH LATE THURSDAY BRINGING  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOWLEVELS WILL  
AGAIN DIP TO AROUND 9,500 FT OR SO, RESULTING IN SOME WHITE  
PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN UTAH. THE  
FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF UTAH BY LATE FRIDAY LEAVING BEHIND  
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL  
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DURING THE CURRENT TAF  
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND  
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF  
THE SOUTH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-15.  
 
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING  
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY, WINDS  
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
COOLER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT  
FOR UTZ494-497-498.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR UTZ482-489.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT  
FOR UTZ478-492-495.  
 
WY...
 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...  
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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