626
FXUS65 KSLC 251827
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1227 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD FOR MEMORIAL DAY, WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, RAISING CONCERNS
FOR NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PEAK
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A PORTION OF WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY TO
THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO UTAH
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, HELPING TO INITIATE AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS (AS IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED VIA
SATELLITE AND RADAR). AS MORE ROBUST LIFT IS INTRODUCED INTO THE
REGION, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
MOISTURE BEING RELOCATED FARTHER NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM
ABOUT WESTERN EMERY COUNTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD TO UINTA COUNTY,
WYOMING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNBURSTS TO CREATE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40-45 MPH. BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE NEAR-
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY DRY.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
GREAT BASIN REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY,
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WE
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, ENHANCED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS A
PORTION OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST WINDS
IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS UTAH'S WEST-CENTRAL
VALLEY AREAS, PARTICULARLY WESTERN MILLARD COUNTY AND A PORTION OF
NORTHWESTERN BEAVER COUNTY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MIGRATE
INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN VALLEYS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS PLACING A HIGH PROBABILITY (70-90% CHANCE) FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH OVER WESTERN EMERY AND CARBON
COUNTIES FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS UPWARDS OF A 30-40% FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
55 MPH FROM HUNTINGTON SOUTHWARD THROUGH FERRON LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE
MOISTURE TIED TO THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PAIR WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY FUELS TO CREATE
CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AGAIN, MOST OF THE MOISTURE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL KEEP DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL
SEE ANYWHERE FROM A 15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FAR WESTERN UTAH NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AROUND FRIDAY/ SATURDAY,
WE'LL SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN AREA, BUT STILL ONLY REMAINING IN THE 15-30% RANGE.
ASIDE FROM THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, REMAINING STAGNANT
ON THURSDAY, THEN TRENDING DOWN AGAIN INTO FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY FORWARD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH A LOW (~10%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. MAIN IMPACT IN
VICINITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT, WITH A
SMALL (~10-20%) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BETWEEN AROUND 09Z-15Z
TUESDAY MORNING. MODESTLY SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OFF OF
UTAH'S HIGH TERRAIN, DRIFTING NORTH THEREAFTER. IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE SHOWERS, ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 30-40 KTS MAY
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
IN THIS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES ARE
MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH'S HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR. ANY SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOPED
SHOWERS WILL CARRY POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH ALONGSIDE LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. EXPECT
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH (MAINLY
EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR), PUSHING INTO THE UINTA BASIN BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UTAH. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH PAIRING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 13-17% WILL
CREATE AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH
ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WHERE FUELS
ARE CRITICALLY DRY IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL UTAH. THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY (MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH) AND WILL PAIR
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10-15% TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN EMERY AND CARBON COUNTIES, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN GARFIELD AND KANE
COUNTIES. AFTER THURSDAY, A COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH CONDITIONS WARMING AND DRYING FROM
SATURDAY FORWARD.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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