304
FXUS65 KSLC 191019
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
319 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY MILD, STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK. REDEVELOPING VALLEY INVERSIONS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF VALLEY HAZE.
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH IN
THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME, BRINGING MODEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN THE LARGELY DRY CONTINENTAL NATURE
TO THE ADVECTING AIRMASS, MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST REGION
REMAINS STABLE, WITH NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWING SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS TRYING TO CREEP IN ACROSS THE IDAHO BORDER NEAR THE RAFT
RIVER MOUNTAINS. OVERALL THOUGH, ANOTHER NIGHT WITH FAIRLY LITTLE
OF NOTE.
FROM MONDAY ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK THE PATTERN
WILL ONLY SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT. DEEP FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL AS A PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH
TOWARDS/INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE. IN TURN THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OF THE AIR MASS WILL TEND TO MODERATE BACK UPWARDS
DAY TO DAY, LIKELY PEAKING BY MIDWEEK WHILE REMAINING DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TREND AND REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL, THOUGH THE CONTINUED
STABLE CONDITIONS AND MILD LOWER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY INVERSIONS. AREAS WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS
AND ASSOCIATED HAZE DEVELOP MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AS MUCH. LIKE MUCH OF THE PRIOR WEEK, THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED OVERNIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP...
THOUGH THE AIRMASS DOES APPEAR QUITE DRY. NOT MUCH ELSE OF IMPACT
THOUGH TO NOTE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MODESTLY GUSTY (~20-40 MPH) GAP WINDS IN PORTIONS OF SW UT MONDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS MOSTLY FAVORED TO CUT OFF
AND PUSH INLAND FROM AROUND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
THOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS NOTED (UNSURPRISING
WITH MOST CUTOFF SYSTEMS). TIMING WISE, ANY LOCAL IMPACTS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO FALL ROUGHLY IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME RANGE,
THOUGH AGAIN WITH THE CUTOFF NATURE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THERE.
GIVEN QUESTIONS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE (AND COLD AIR), FORECAST
WATER AMOUNTS HAVE A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD. 25TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION ARE MORE OR LESS NOTHING, WHILE EVEN
75TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ONLY BRING A GENERAL 0.10" TO 0.20" OF
WATER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. STILL, THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERSHIP ON THE HIGHER END (WITH A MORE APPRECIABLE SHOT OF
MOISTURE NOTED IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS), SO WILL BE WORTH
WATCHING THE TRENDS SINCE IT'S AT LEAST SOMETHING. IF NOTHING
ELSE, IT COULD HELP PROVIDE BETTER VENTILATION TO VALLEYS AND IN
TURN RELIEF TO INVERSIONS.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 18Z. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, VALLEY HAZE WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT
VISIBILITIES TODAY. EXPECT MAIN IMPACTS TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY,
THOUGH THERE ARE LOW-END (15%) CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF MVFR VIS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR ALL REGIONAL
TERMINALS TODAY, OUTSIDE OF A LOW-END (15%) CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS
FOR TERMINALS ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AS THE INVERSION PERSISTS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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