132
FXUS65 KSLC 060357
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
957 PM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- THE THREAT OF STRONG GUSTS (40-50MPH) AND LIGHTNING INCREASES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT AS HIGH-BASED
STORMS DEVELOP WITH AN INCOMING SYSTEM.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY
AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO OUR SOUTHWEST,
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO AZ, CREEPING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN UT.
CURRENTLY, ALL THIS WILL AMOUNT TO IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NORTHERN UT
AND SOUTHWEST WY FOLLOWING IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THROUGH TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE
PROGRESSING EAST WITH TIME. UPPER LEVEL AND POTENTIALLY SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING SUBSTANTIALLY. MODEST FORCING WILL ARRIVE TO
SOUTHERN UT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, SPURRING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN UT AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UT.
WHILE HIGHER POPS ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN
BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY / HIGHER RH, SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT LOWER TERRAIN.
GIVEN LAPSE NEARLY REACHING DRY ADIABATIC, INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE ABUNDANT WEST AND SOMEWHAT EAST OF I-15 TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING A GUSTY WIND THREAT. DCAPE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, HOWEVER,
WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED 40-50MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS A
COUPLE SEVERE GUSTS (>58MPH). THIS LIMITATION IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FORCING, LIMITING MIXING AND OVERALL PBL HEIGHT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE TELEGRAPH
FLATS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY 30-40KTS AND PWAT'S RANGING FROM 0.6-
0.8" OF WATER COULD RESULT IN SOME LONGER-LIVED STORMS, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY STORM THAT FORMS GETS HUNG UP ON THE TERRAIN. HOWEVER, AS
STATED EARLIER, THIS SCENARIO IS EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH, TRANSIENT UPPER
RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH FLATTENS THE RIDGE.
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON YIELDING TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL STALL OFF THE CA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PROGRESSING INLAND THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS 50/50 REGARDING THE CUTOFF LOW
PHASING IN WITH THE FIRST TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOVE,
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES ZERO MEMBERS THAT SUPPORT
THIS SOLUTION AND INDICATE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSING
EAST WELL AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS HAS GENERALLY ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME WARMER, WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE INITIAL PUSH THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE ENTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO BOTH THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINING EXTREMELY ACTIVE.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ALL PIECES OF LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATING A 45% CHANCE OF THE
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUING SOUTH AND NOT PHASING INTO ANOTHER INCOMING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THE OTHER 55% HAS THE CUTOFF LOW PHASING
IN WITH THE INCOMING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
BOTH OUTCOMES YIELD EXTREMELY DIFFERENT RESULTS, WHERE THE LATTER
WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FORMER WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER CHANCE THAT THE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES
SLIDING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE CA COASTLINE BEFORE PROGRESSING INLAND
TOWARD AZ, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS DETAILS ARE
IRONED OUT REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 17-18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
LIGHT, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH AS EARLY AS 16Z MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER/LIGHTNING AT KCDC, KSGU, KBCE, AND PERHAPS KU52 ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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