109  
FXUS65 KSLC 240902  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
302 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BEAR LAKE AREA,  
SOUTH AND EAST TO UINTA COUNTY, WY, THE WESTERN UINTAS AND DOWN  
THE WASATCH PLATEAU WILL BRING A THREAT OF MICROBURST WINDS AND  
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY NEAR SURFACE SMOKE  
CONCENTRATIONS WILL IMPACT LAKE POWELL/GLEN CANYON AND EASTERN  
KANE COUNTY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF MICROBURST  
WINDS AND LIGHTNING TO THE BEAR LAKE AREA, SOUTH AND EAST TO  
UINTA COUNTY, WY, THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE  
WASATCH PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
* SMOKE MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVY NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE  
CONCENTRATIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY  
ACROSS LAKE POWELL/GLEN CANYON AND EASTERN KANE COUNTY.  
*CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
UTAH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THESE  
AREAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
*ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE INCREASES THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING ACROSS  
SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY.  
 
WHILE THE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE QUIET FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF  
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, THERE ARE A LOT OF IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES  
UTAH REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AND UPPER LEVEL LOW  
NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  
 
THIS WILL SET UP UTAH TO REMAIN IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. MORE ABOUT THAT FORECAST IN THE FIRE WEATHER  
DISCUSSION.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY  
THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS/BEAR LAKE AREA, UINTA COUNTY, WY DOWN TO THE  
WASATCH PLATEAU AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS  
FAIRLY MEDIOCRE (MEAN SBCAPE IN THE 00Z HREF WAS AROUND 300-500  
J/KG), THERE IS 25-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAMS SUGGEST  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH A PEAK WIND THREAT  
AROUND 50 MPH. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS INCLUDING BEAR LAKE,  
HIKING IN THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS, ETC, SHOULD MONITOR THE  
WEATHER AND GET TO SHORE IF NEEDED (FOR BOATERS) IF THREATENING  
WEATHER IS OBSERVED.  
 
FURTHER SOUTH, HEAVY WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE DRAGON BRAVO FIRE IS  
MODELED BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT GLEN CANYON/LAKE POWELL AND EASTERN  
KANE COUNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z (NOON) TODAY. NEAR SURFACE  
CONCENTRATIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODELED TO EXCEED 150-200 UG/M3,  
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ON BOTH HIGHWAYS AND  
LAKE POWELL AND CAUSE AIR QUALITY RELATED IMPACTS TO THOSE  
RECREATING OUTDOORS. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LOOK TO FALL AFTER ABOUT  
08-09Z THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT REBOUND AGAIN FRIDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC  
CONCENTRATIONS WILL RELY ON THE HRRR ADEQUATELY MODELING THE  
WILDFIRE, THOSE WITH PLANS IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR  
RAPIDLY INCREASING NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS AFTER  
18Z/NOON TODAY.  
 
THE NEXT POTENTIAL MONSOON SURGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE INITIAL EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY  
MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OF NEW WILDFIRE STARTS RELATED TO  
LIGHTNING RATHER THAN EASING THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR MOVING FORWARD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...SLC
 
SCT-BKN MID DECK WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE  
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BUT MOST  
WILL NOT, WITH LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE, A  
FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER NEARBY TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE  
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED UNTIL  
20-22Z, WHEN NW LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE  
TERMINAL, THEN SWITCHING TO SSE DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND 04Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS  
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE  
OF LOCALIZED, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN  
AREAS OF NE UTAH, CENTRAL UTAH AND SW WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR  
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS IS ACROSS NE UTAH AND SW WYOMING,  
MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-02Z THIS EVENING. SMOKE IMPACTS EXPECTED  
ACROSS SE UTAH, WITH POTENTIAL CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR  
AND LOCALLY IFR IN EXTREME SE UTAH.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
WITH UTAH IN DEEP, DRY, AND HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW  
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT INCREASINGLY POOR  
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
BRINGING AT LEAST POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY  
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUGGEST MORE  
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND  
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST  
SUNDAY.  
 
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER  
MONSOON SURGE TUESDAY, LIGHTNING AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD MAY  
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF LIGHTNING RELATED STARTS TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
KRUSE/DESMET  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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