014
FXUS65 KSLC 190405
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH NORTHERN UTAH SEEING
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WASATCH FRONT. THE RISK WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5F OF
SEASONAL NORMALS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH COMBINED WITH VERY
DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN UTAH ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
THREAT POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
SATURDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS COULD INCREASE FOR SOME
VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ROUGHLY NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THE WESTERLY
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH HAS ALLOWED A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE IN, ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AVERAGED ABOUT 5F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
APPROACHING 10F ABOVE CLIMO OVER SOUTHERN UTAH.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST, INTO COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON, AS A DISORGANIZED TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA, BREEZIEST
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE IT WILL COMBINE WITH
THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ALLOW DRIER AND
LESS WARM AIR TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEATRISK
VALUES WILL BE IN THE RED (MAJOR) CATEGORY FOR LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRAZE NORTHERN UTAH
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST UTAH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY HAS GONE UP JUST A BIT WITH THIS PACKAGE,
AS THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WOULD PUT THE JET IN A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS, ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL AND WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO VALUES WITHIN 5F OF SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH, HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE UP EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS FROM THE TROUGH COULD COMBINE WITH THE DRY
CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH.
BY MONDAY, THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT BEHIND IT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO
START THE WEEK, WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO UP TO 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT RELATED
CONCERNS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
AROUND 18Z TO 20Z FRIDAY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ABOVE ~15 KFT
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY, BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THERE IS
AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS TO BRING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS WITH TIMING FAVORED BETWEEN
02-04Z SATURDAY. EXCEPTING THIS, SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VARYING DEGREES OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, THERE IS ~20-30% CHANCE OF
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS BRINGING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ~30-35 KTS
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, MOST TERMINALS WILL
SEE DIURNALLY NORMAL WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME MODEST
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS AT MORE EXPOSED AND TYPICALLY
BREEZY TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COMING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH. WITH THIS IN
MIND, FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
UTAH. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH, AND THIS COULD COMBINE WITH
THE DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
BASED SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST UTAH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING AS WELL AS GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE TROUGH, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT,
BUT KEEPING WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
STILL, SOME GUSTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ104-
105.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
UTZ492-495.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR UTZ482-484-488-489-493-494-496-498.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ497.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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