923
FXUS65 KSLC 121022
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
322 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY TAPER OFF BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
SHOWERS REINVIGORATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SUBTLE
WAVE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH. PERIODS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, MAINLY BETWEEN 2-6PM.
- A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WITH WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE STRETCH STARTING
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS COLDER TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND LOCAL WEBCAMS EVEN SHOW SNOW FALLING ACROSS
MANY OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARDS IN INTENSITY THIS
MORNING, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REINVIGORATION AS MODEST
INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS WITH (WELL, MODEST) DAYTIME HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THIS CLOSED LOW SHIFTS INTO NV THIS AFTERNOON, A
LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, RESULTING IN
THE BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING AROUND 7500FT. WHILE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IS FAIRLY MEAGER WITH ONLY WEAK WAVES PASSING
THROUGH, MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH, RESULTING IN STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA. AS THE
UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW, ITS COLD CORE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN A BIT MORE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AGAIN PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEASTERN UTAH.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
PASSES OVERHEAD.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DRY,
STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A BIT, REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN US IN SOME FORM
NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED OVERALL COLDER NEXT
WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR >1" OF VALLEY SNOW BY MID-WEEK SITTING AT
30-60% ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT, 60% IN THE CACHE VALLEY, 90% IN
PARK CITY, AND 60% IN CEDAR CITY, TO NAME A FEW AREAS. THE
LIMITING FACTOR HERE COULD BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY; WITH MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SIERRA, IT'S
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE REACHES UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING.
AVIATION...KSLC
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, PRIMARILY DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. IN
GENERAL THOUGH, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LARGELY PREVAIL WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERN WITH MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 10 KTS, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MORE GUSTY AND VARIABLE PERIODS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS AS
A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY AROUND 6500-7500 FT
WILL SUPPORT LOW ELEVATION RAIN, AND THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE AROUND
A 20-30% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING PRECIPITATION.
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS WITH SNOW MORE DOMINANT WILL MORE LIKELY
SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN, THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL LOCALLY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MORE VARIABLE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ110>113.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
UTZ125.
WY...NONE.
CUNNINGHAM/WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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