140
FXUS65 KSLC 202137
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
337 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST AHEAD OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE PACNW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY CHURN
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THIS HAS HELPED TO FLATTEN THE
STRONG RIDGE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S RECORD HEAT,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL COME IN AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL THOUGH, EVEN WITH THAT
AFOREMENTIONED COOLDOWN.
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE PLACEMENT IS ALSO DRIVING A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING STILL RESULTING
IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS, THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS FINDING
ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE IN MANY LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE
30-45 MPH RANGE ARE BEING OBSERVED, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
EVEN IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. HAVE MAINTAINED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST
OF THE WESTERN UTAH VALLEYS ACCORDINGLY WHERE THE SIGNAL IS STILL
MOST FAVORABLE TO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEEING
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DOWNSTREAM OF SOURCE REGIONS WHERE
THESE GUSTS ARE PICKING UP, OCCASIONALLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. COMBINATION OF THE PROLONGED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THESE GUSTS IS FURTHER ELEVATING FIRE
DANGER, WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACCORDINGLY.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH, PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WITH THIS INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO LIMITED,
THUS EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WHERE THE FRONT DOES
PASS, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
RELAXING A BIT AFTER ANOTHER GUSTY PERIOD. INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR
WILL ALSO BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT ACCORDINGLY. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THIS FRONT
WILL MORE OR LESS STALL ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL MILLARD COUNTY
NORTHEAST INTO AROUND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OR SO. AREAS SOUTH/AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE MORE MILD CONDITIONS, WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
ALSO ALIGNED FAVORABLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF EFI PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS MANY AREAS IN
SHADING DEPICTING ANOMALOUS WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST REGION, AND AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IF ANYTHING WIND GUSTS WILL TICK UPWARDS A BIT AT AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. AS SUCH, ANOTHER BROAD WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS. GIVEN THE MILD, DRY, AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY
WEATHER, ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING ONWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, WILL SEE A
MORE MARKED SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TO RESULT IN A SHARP
INCREASE TO THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND IN TURN A
RESURGENCE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. HELD OFF ON WIND HEADLINES
FOR THIS PERIOD AS IT APPEARS A SMALLER TIME WINDOW WITH A LITTLE
LESS CONFIDENCE ON MAGNITUDES, THOUGH WOULD SAY THERE'S A NON-ZERO
CHANCE TO SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH. THE
COLD AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ALSO HELP TO NUDGE THE INITIAL STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH UTAH. FOR WHERE THE
FRONT DOES PASS, MORNING LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FEEL ALMOST
CHILLY IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ONE OTHER TREND NOTED PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE IS INCREASING BULLISHNESS ON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS
THIS COLDER AIR SURGES IN. WHILE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS LOOK
UNLIKELY, IT AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
WE'VE SEEN IN A GOOD WHILE. GIVEN JUST HOW COLD THE AIRMASS IS,
GFS DERIVED LAKE EFFECT GUIDANCE EVEN HAS SOME PROBABILITY
(~20-50%) OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY), ISSUED 332 AM MDT
BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLED INTO THE
AREA TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS H7 TEMPERATURES DIP DOWN TO
~-2C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WITH GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S.
MEAN TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY ERODE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH H7 TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ~15C BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
90S FOR MUCH OF UTAH'S VALLEYS WITH A RETURN TO TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT 22% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO BRING SOME MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN UTAH AND
SW WYOMING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT COULD INTERACT WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE OTHER 78% OF MEMBERS KEEP
THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-40 KTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AFTER ROUGHLY 05Z AS A DRY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
08Z. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 35-40 KTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SMOKE FROM NEARBY FIRES MAY
IMPACT VISIBILITY AT KCDC-KBCE AT TIMES UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE, WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 03-06Z TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHTER THEREAFTER.
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
THESE TERMINALS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AIRSPACE, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO TAPER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REDEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
DEEP, DRY, AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY AS A
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES UTAH. PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
REGION HAVE TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 35 TO 45+ MPH, PAIRING WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 3 TO 9 PERCENT. THESE MODERATE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH, MOSTLY SUBSIDING AFTER ABOUT
2200-2300. THAT SAID, AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF MAJOR TERRAIN
FEATURES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. POOR RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST UTAH AND EASTERN UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN UTAH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/ EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, BRINGING AT
LEAST SOME RELIEF TO POOR RECOVERIES IN FAR NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST UTAH AFTER
2100, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PROGRESSING INTO WEST-CENTRAL UTAH
BY 0300 SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS
MUCH FARTHER THAN SOUTHERN MILLARD COUNTY UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. ALL
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITY, ALLOWING RFWS TO DROP
OFF IN NORTHWEST UTAH. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THEIR PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
THAT WILL BE SOUTH/ EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, MEANING THAT
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS,
PAIRED WITH THE CRITICALLY DRY SURFACE, WILL CREATE A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRE GROWTH IF FUELS ARE AVAILABLE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF UTAH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THE VERY LEAST. THAT SAID,
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS MAY GUST IN
EXCESS OF 35-40 MPH ONCE AGAIN, BUT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
RELATIVELY BREEZY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN REGION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ101-102-115-122.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ482>484-489-
492>498.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ114>116-
118>123-126>131.
WY...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WARTHEN
LONG TERM...MAHAN
AVIATION...WHITLAM
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page