505
FXUS65 KSLC 170418
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MOST AREAS
ABOVE 3,000 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
TONIGHT, WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT ACROSS LOWER
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN AREAS THAT ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERLY FLOW,
SUCH AS THE BLACK RIDGE CANYON.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE INTO UTAH
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED SOUTH OF A CEDAR CITY TO HANKSVILLE LINE AS OF 04Z AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF UTAH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A
RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES NEAR THE COLD
FRONT, WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THE DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD BE SHORT,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH MOUNTAINS AND LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE
VALLEYS ABOVE 4000-4500 FEET. LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON HIGHER ELEVATION ROADWAYS INCLUDING I-15
SUMMITS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TONIGHT.
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BAND, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT, AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
GSL AND CONTINUED COOLING AT H5 LEADING TO A STEEPENING OF
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, LAKE-INDUCED CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE WOULD FAVOR SOME SHOWERS OFF THE GSL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING ASSUMING ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOCAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 30-40% CHANCE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT THE OQUIRRH MOUNTAINS, THE FAR EASTERN TOOELE
VALLEY, AND FAR WESTERN SL VALLEY.
ISOLATED STRONG POSTFRONTAL WIND GUSTS (50 MPH OR GREATER) HAVE
BEEN NOTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN UTAH. ACROSS LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY, CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH BLACK RIDGE CANYON AND DOWNSLOPING OFF THE PINE VALLEY AND
BEAVER DAM MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
SETTLING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT MINS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS AFTERNOON MAXES FRIDAY WILL
FALL TO AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH. IN AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN, FREEZE TO HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT EARLY-SEASON AGRICULTURE AS
WELL AS OUTDOOR PLUMBING SUCH AS SPRINKLERS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY, AS MANY VALLEYS
RETURN TO THE 70S FOR HIGHS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR A MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (A GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED IN ALL FOUR
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS), THE DETAILS AS DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS, CONSISTING OF CLOSED LOWS AND VARIOUS
SYSTEMS DUMBBELLING AROUND EACH OTHER, SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFICS.
AVIATION...KSLC
A 20-30% CHANCE OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IS NOTED THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW AND A NORTHERLY GRADIENT, WINDS MAY BE A BIT
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTION PATTERN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A LOW
CHANCE (~20-30%) OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS NOTED AT
TERMINALS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND UTAH LAKE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VIS, THOUGH
OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDS AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEND TO BE FAVORED AT MOST AREA TERMINALS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTY NE DOWN-TERRAIN WINDS PARTICULARLY AT
SGU.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ102>106-114>116-
118>122-129-130.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR
UTZ102>106-114>116-118>122-129-130.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ123.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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