683  
FXUS65 KSLC 132148  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
348 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM SET TO MOVE  
THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED  
WEATHER. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SET IN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS,  
THROUGH DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMUP ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ALONG WITH SOME  
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
RAIN SENSITIVE AREAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE  
SYSTEM.  
 
- INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL PEAK ON  
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 50 MPH RANGE ARE  
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.  
 
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD  
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IS NOTED FOR  
LOCALLY FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND/OR  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
   
DISCUSSION  
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE DEEPENING AND CLOSING OFF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS HELPING TO  
USHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA IN TURN, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES  
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 150-200% OF NORMAL. AS SUCH, AREA RADARS  
ARE PICKING UP ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING  
ACROSS/MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN INCREASING DESTABILIZATION  
IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOISTURE, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION, AND ANYTHING THAT TRACKS OVER A RAIN  
SENSITIVE BASIN WILL CARRY POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
THAT SAID, STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS HELPING STORMS TO MOVE ALONG AT A  
DECENT PACE (MOTION ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS OR SO) WHICH WILL  
LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER SUCH AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY  
POTENTIAL TRAILING/TRAINING CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD  
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY FROM THE INITIAL WAVE WILL START TO WANE  
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH DAYTIME HEATING THEN LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH. ADDITIONALLY, AS  
FASTER LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN GIVEN THE DEEP SYSTEM, WILL SEE SOME  
STRONGER WIND GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES  
REMAIN MORE CLOUD FREE. IN GENERAL, BEST SIGNAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS  
OF 45 MPH IS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, AND AS  
SUCH HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC  
SYSTEM MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, BECOMING MAXIMIZED AS  
IT PASSES, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THEREAFTER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE  
OF THE SYSTEM SINKS IN. LOOKING AT FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS  
THROUGH THE EVENT, PROBABILITIES HAVEN'T SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM  
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IT STILL APPEARS REASONABLE THAT THERE IS AROUND  
A 30-50% CHANCE OF 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS, AND AROUND A 25-35% CHANCE FOR PORTIONS  
OF SOUTHWEST UTAH. SNOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL START AROUND  
9000 FT OR HIGHER, FALLING TO AROUND 7000 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS  
THE COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN. AS SUCH, WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SEE  
SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LINGERING PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING WILL FINALLY START  
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  
 
THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING  
APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF NEAR  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH (IN REGARDS TO LOWER ELEVATION  
PLACES THAT HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED ONE YET). THAT SAID, BOTH NIGHTS  
LOOK LIKE THEY'LL HANG ONTO SOME AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, AND IF THIS  
CLOUD COVER IS TOO EXPANSIVE IT MAY PREVENT EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS SUBSTANTIALLY. ALL THE  
SAME, BE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR YOUR  
SPECIFIC AREA IF YOU HAVE ANY COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO TEND TO.  
 
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE PATTERN FLIP BACK TO MORE RIDGE  
DOMINANT. THIS WILL YIELD DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING  
TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM BY EARLY  
IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD IN  
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS (INCLUDING TIMING/STRENGTH), SO CONFIDENCE IN  
ANY DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...KSLC  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z WITH  
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS BUILDING IN. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS  
FROM ROUGHLY 02-09Z WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY, ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH ISOLATED STRONGER SHOWERS CAPABLE  
OF MVFR CONDITIONS.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
ENHANCED SOUTHEAST TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z. BROKEN TO OVERCAST  
CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, TAPERING OFF IN FAR  
NORTHERN UTAH AROUND 12Z.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
A BROAD PACIFIC SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO DEEPEN,  
RESULTING IN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH,  
MODESTLY GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND  
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE IS  
EXPECTED TOMORROW.  
 
MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SYSTEM APPROACHES. ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL  
THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM AND AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME  
MAXIMIZED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,  
WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER AIR  
WILL ALSO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO  
AROUND 7000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL  
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING  
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR UTZ122-123.  
 
WY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC...WARTHEN  
AVIATION...WILSON  
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN  
 
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