586
FXUS65 KSLC 062101
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
301 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL CLIP THE AREA BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY, RIDGING ALOFT IS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER
MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH AN UPPER LOW CHURNING OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS UPPER AIR SETUP WILL ENABLE
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA, AND
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS EXISTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
AREAS SUCH AS THE UINTAS, BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY.
A COUPLE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS, THOUGH THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RAISE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF THE WASATCH
FRONT REACHING 100F WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL BE
QUITE HOT AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING 110F IN AREAS SUCH AS
ST. GEORGE.
DESPITE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST, THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW WILL LOWLY TRAVERSE INLAND AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. INITIALLY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS SEEING AN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
MOST NOTABLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS, SOME ATTENDANT FIRE DANGER APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE STATE. AS WE REACH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A DRY FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN UT AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN UT AND SOUTHWEST WY WILL
SEE A DECREASE TO NEAR-AVERAGE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENT, THOUGH AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL SEE
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DURING THIS TIME. THIS RELIEF FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UNSEASONABLY
HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...KSLC
QUIET VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ONLY SOME
ISOLATED DAYTIME CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH DAYTIME
MAGNITUDES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS SUN AND 15 KTS MON.
DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS TO LARGELY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN (SHIFT
FAVORING SE ~03-05Z MON, BACK NW ~16-18Z MON).
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
TAF PERIOD TO REMAIN QUIET
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. SOME DAYTIME TERRAIN INITIATED
CUMULUS AND A WIDELY ISOLATED TERRAIN BASED SHOWER OR TWO, BUT
DRY/CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS,
WITH SOME MODEST GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT MORE EXPOSED OR TYPICALLY GUSTY
TERMINALS. WIND DIRECTIONS ANTICIPATED TO LARGELY FOLLOW A TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING HEAT AND A CONTINUATION OF
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A WIDELY ISOLATED
HIGH BASED SHOWER OR TWO DRIFTING OFF HIGH TERRAIN DURING PEAK
HEAT OF THE DAY MONDAY, THOUGH IF ANYTHING THESE WOULD BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME MODESTLY GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOWS RATHER THAN WETTING
RAINS OR EVEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY, A CUTOFF LOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND ENHANCE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME MODEST GUSTS IN THE 15-30 MPH RANGE, WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH LOW DAYTIME RH AND CRITICAL FUELS MAY LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND, EVENTUALLY
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH UTAH IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY TO EARLY
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL NUDGE WINDS AND GUSTS UPWARDS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO IN TURN WILL SEE A BIT
MORE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TOO EARLY/MARGINAL
FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. SOME MODELS
ALSO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ALSO ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT LATER ON, BUT WITH MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED, ANTICIPATING A LARGELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. FRONT
YIELDS A COOLDOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF UTAH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH WARMING CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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