918
FXUS65 KSLC 230426
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1026 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FROM ROUGHLY I-70
TO A LINE ROUGHLY NORTH OF CEDAR CITY TO NORTH OF BRYCE CANYON
TO NORTH OF BULLFROG AS WELL AS THE RAFT RIVER RANGE AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WIND AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS REMNANT BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS NEAR THE RAFT
RIVERS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...AT BEST SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
100-150 J/KG. THOUGH MICROBURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF
MICROBURST WINDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR
WEST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES MORE REMINISCENT OF MID-JUNE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY TO HERALD IN THE UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS INDICATING A
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY FILL AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE BROAD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN, THE
POSITION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ON A GIVEN DAY VARIES WIDELY
ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEM. THUS TRYING TO TEASE OUT TIMING OF
THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY IS
DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE MOST PROBABLE STATEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 18Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WITH TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AFTER 18Z SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF KCDC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WITH THESE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MINIMUM RH WILL BE AROUND 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UP TO 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THREAT OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, THOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS IN
PARTICULAR GIVEN STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH...POTENTIALLY LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/SEAMAN/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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