178
FXUS65 KSLC 122044
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
244 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PAIRING WITH AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS, BRINGING ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- SOME OUTLYING VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE CACHE VALLEY, MAY SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS.
- CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BRINGING
CONTINUED RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. MOISTURE
FROM THE RECENT TROPICAL CYCLONE WRAPPING UP IN THE LARGER SCALE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION AND, WITH THE INCREASED INSTABILITY
OVERHEAD, WILL BRING CONTINUED HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH WILL BRING A MINOR RISK FOR AREAL FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND STEEP ROCKY TERRAIN (IN ADDITION TO RECENT BURN
SCARS). FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO SHORT-LIVED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IF CONVECTION IS NOT ENTIRELY MUTED BY CLOUD COVER. AS IS THE CASE
WITH TYPICAL FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN UTAH, THE HIGHEST
RISK WILL BE FOUND IN SLOT CANYONS, SLICKROCK AREAS, DRY WASHES,
AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA, INTRODUCING MUCH COOLER AIR
TO THE BEEHIVE STATE. AS THIS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION,
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN DROPPING FROM AROUND 9,500FT (AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON) DOWN TO AROUND 7,500-8,000FT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OF COLDER AIR (NOT QUITE A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT), AND
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AS THE COLDER AIR OOZES INTO THE REGION
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (AS WELL AS DROPPING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE
MOUNTAINS). FOR SEASONAL ROADS THAT REMAIN OPEN (E.G. GUARDSMAN
PASS AND BALD MOUNTAIN PASS), ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY POSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK TO TRAVELERS WHO ARE NOT PREPARED.
THE CENTER OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. THAT SAID, THERE IS SOME RELATIVE UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVING AROUND HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT HOW QUICKLY WE WARM UP AND DRY
OUT. THAT SAID, THERE IS GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING AN OVERALL PLEASANT WEEKEND AFTER A WET START TO THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
KSLC...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF VFR WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z WITH A LULL OVERNIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND RAIN RETURN TOMORROW ~17Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS ~30%
CHANCE WINDS WILL JUST REMAIN NORTHERLY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE WITH LOWERED CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL, BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY,
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 149 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION, COOLER AIR WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS INTO THE 7000 TO 8000
FOOT RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ101>131.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR UTZ111.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR UTZ112.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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