168
FXUS65 KSLC 101128
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
528 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1027 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HEATWAVE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY,
MONTHLY, AND EVEN ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1027 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN UTAH IS UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH CONTINUES TO SEE A BIT OF HIGH BASED MOISTURE
WHICH LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
5-8F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH OVER SOUTHERN UTAH TO BRING AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH ITS
CENTER MOVING DIRECTLY OVER UTAH. WINDS WILL DECREASE, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE, RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE QUITE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HEATRISK VALUES
INTO THE RED (MAJOR) RANGE FOR MANY VALLEYS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WILL GO INTO EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES, ALREADY
ABNORMALLY WARM, ARE ON TRACK TO BECOME EVEN HOTTER. JUST ABOUT
ALL VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO SEE MAXES OF 100F OR HIGHER, WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND THOSE VALUES AS WELL. DEPARTURES FROM
NORMAL WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WHERE NOT ONLY WILL
DAILY RECORDS BE IN PLAY, BUT MONTHLY AND ALL TIME RECORDS AS
WELL. FOR EXAMPLE, THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOGAN SHOWS A HIGH OF
107F, WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE ALL TIME RECORD THERE. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS SALT LAKE CITY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEETING
OR EXCEEDING THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 107F ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES EAST AND PUTS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MOISTURE WILL
MOST LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND
STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THUS,
ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A BIT LESS HOT (BUT STILL
NOTICEABLY ABOVE NORMAL), WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 19-20Z, THEN
RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UTAH
EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHWEST WIND
BY MIDDAY, WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 514 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A HOT, VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES 495, 496 AND 498.
OTHERWISE LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING DANGEROUS HEAT ALONG
WITH VERY LOW DAYTIME RH AND POOR TO NON-EXISTENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
VALLEYS ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN HOT MONDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY.
MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING
MONDAY, THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WETTING RAINS, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED RH.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
UTZ101>108-114-116-118>121.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
UTZ115-122-128>131.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
UTZ495-496-498.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ021.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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