555
FXUS65 KSLC 251127
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
527 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1106 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
DECREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 100S CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST UTAH AS WELL AS THE UINTA BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, LIMITING
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1106 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW
OVER UTAH TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. THE MEAN PWAT FROM THE NBM DIPS TO BELOW 0.9 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH ON SATURDAY, WITH
THESE VALUES SPREADING INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE
A CHANGE FROM THE 1-1.3 INCHES ANALYZED THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS
A RESULT, EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO DECREASE FOR SATURDAY AND
BECOME CONFINED MOSTLY TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER FOR SUNDAY, MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME DYNAMICS WHICH COULD BRING
INCREASED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND STARTS DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS
THE FOUR CORNERS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN
THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY AS A RESULT. THEREAFTER, THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST TOWARDS NORTHWEST AZ AND
SOUTHWEST UT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD THEN CUT OF
THE MOISTURE AND BRING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
WITH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNSEASONABLY HOT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST UTAH,
INCLUDING THE WASATCH FRONT, AS WELL AS THE UINTA BASIN. MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 100S THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
THE MONSOON MOISTURE KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED. FOR LARGE
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST UTAH, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
IN THIS PATTERN, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WASATCH
FRONT, NORTHWEST UTAH, THE CACHE VALLEY, AND THE UINTA BASIN.
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE BY TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES SOME, THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
KSLC...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING, LIKELY
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 19-20Z. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION GIVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. AN INITIAL FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN 19-23Z, POTENTIALLY FOLLOWED BY A (EVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE) SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW BETWEEN 03-07Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 17-18Z, BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH AFTER 20Z. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH, POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 50KTS. OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY FAVOR A
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL
BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OTHERWISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL, THOUGH A HEAVIER SHOWER COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY VIS
REDUCTION.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 455 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY. ON SUNDAY, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH. IN
GENERAL, STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, THE EXCEPTION BEING TODAY
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH WHERE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH.
WITH THIS DRIER AIR MOVING IN, PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
UTAH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACH
CRITICAL LEVELS ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH, MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR UTZ101>107-114.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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