841
FXUS65 KSLC 062000
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES TODAY, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
HEAT- RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, OR HAVE CHRONIC HEALTH
CONDITIONS.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACNW TODAY HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING.
STRONGEST GUSTS 40-45 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH, WHERE COUPLED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WILL ALLOW
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING -- AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE A SPARK. WINDS ARE
LESS INTENSE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-35 MPH
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THESE
WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
IMPACTING VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
DESERT.
A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
LATE EVENING. MEAGER AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NUDGING IN
ALONG WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE A
CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR ANY STORMS PRODUCING LIGHTNING
THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY DUE TO ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTER POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS, ALLOWING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS. WINDS RAMP
DOWN AREAWIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SECOND, DEEPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 70-90% CHANCE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH EVEN HAVE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH,. ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
DYNAMICS AND A BIT MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, SUPPORTIVE
OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
UTAH ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS (UP TO 35KTS) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 02-03Z THIS EVENING, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEF
GUSTS OVER 30 KT DUE TO HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TERMINAL. WITH THIS SAID, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT GUSTY
WESTERLY CROSSWINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 02-04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR ALL REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY UNDER
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS 20-35 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH AFTER 00Z BRINGING A
WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST, AND A 30% CHANCE OF BRIEF WIND GUSTS
OVER 35KT TO THE WEST DESERTS AND WASATCH FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING
AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD GIVEN A SPARK. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH AS WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH
POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WHILE WINDS TAPER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY,
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 MPH WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT VERY
EFFICIENT MIXING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION
WILL RESULT IN CRITICALLY DRY RH AND WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 30-40
MPH AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ484-489-492>498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ484-489-492>498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
AVIATION...MERRILL
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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