210
FXUS65 KSLC 280434
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1034 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, BEFORE
DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
- SIGNIFICANT HEAT TEMPORARILY AND MARGINALLY SUBSIDES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN BY
THURSDAY ONWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MODERATE TO THE
UPPER-90S ON THE WASATCH FRONT AND MID-100S IN THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH BEFORE INCREASING BY UPWARDS OF 5-7
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH, BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS WERE AIDED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY,
AS PWATS INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR TUESDAY, EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF UTAH, WHILE A POOL OF MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. THIS IDEA IS
WELL SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS CAMS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO AMPLIFIES TUESDAY NIGHT, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE MONSOONAL
PATTERN FOR A LITTLE WHILE, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
TO SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL SPREAD A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDWEEK WITH
THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
EXPECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW H7 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 20-22C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 23C. MOST VALLEYS CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER ONCE AGAIN (OVER 110 DEGREES
IN LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE GLEN CANYON AREA). THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX IS SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. LATEST HEATRISK IS MAJOR TO
EXTREME FOR MOST VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
INDICATE A BIT OF A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING
EAST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
AVIATION
KSLC...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 6000 FT AGL. THERE IS A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH 07Z. EXPECT TYPICAL SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS MAY BE A BRIEFLY ERRATIC
AT TIMES NEAR SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT BACK TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-20Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY BETWEEN 19-00Z. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THESE SHOWERS, OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL SETTLE INTO A TYPICAL LIGHT NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE PATTERN
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, FOCUSING MORE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 239 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH
TODAY WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY
AS THE AREA BATTLES BETWEEN DRIER AND WETTER AIR MASSES. ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN FEATURES TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, GREATLY REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO BEGIN
ITS DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ONE LAST PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHILE THE WESTERN HALF REMAINS DRY. THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT
AREA WIDE DRYING IS EXPECTED ALONGSIDE REBUILDING OF HEAT AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE WEST. AS SUCH, ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES
INCREASING THURSDAY FORWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS HUMIDITY FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO LOW-TEENS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ101>107-114-124-
128-130.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CHENG
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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