604
FXUS65 KSLC 300357
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
957 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE
REGION, PRIMARILY EAST OF I-15, THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- ENHANCED EASTERLY CANYON WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY AND INCREASINGLY MILD WEEKEND, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UNSETTLED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, BUT
THESE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE JUST A BIT FOR THURSDAY AS A WEAKLY DEFINED TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH
THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION FOR AREAS EAST OF I-15, WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
UTAH. GIVEN THE DRY LOWER LEVELS, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE RAIN AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SUCH
FLOW WOULD ENHANCE CANYON WINDS IN PRONE AREAS OF THE WASATCH
FRONT, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER, A
DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT LOOKS QUITE UNLIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A 10
PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY BACK
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND. MAXES, WHICH
SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY, WILL RISE TO IN
EXCESS OF 10F ABOVE CLIMO BY SUNDAY. NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS SUCH
AS THE SANPETE AND SEVIER VALLEY, THE CACHE VALLEY, SOUTHWEST
UTAH, AND EASTERN MILLARD AND EASTERN JUAB COUNTIES WITH SEE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE FREEZING LOWS WILL
PERSIST IN THOSE AREAS SATURDAY MORNING DESPITE MODEST WARMING,
BUT THE THREAT OF A FREEZE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AS A BROAD PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO USHER IN A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THOUGH THERE REMAINS
SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS.
AVIATION
KSLC..VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CHANGES. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BY
07Z. NORTHWEST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW MORNING 17-18Z. AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS TO THE EAST TOMORROW COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
SHOWER NEAR THE TERMINAL, THOUGH THE CHANCE IS LOW (20-30%) AND
HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH MORE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING A THREAT
OF TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS
EAST OF I-15. THE CHANCE OF SUCH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING NEARBY
VALLEY TERMINALS IS HIGHEST FOR KLGU AND KEVW, WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE AT KSLC (20-30%). OTHER VALLEY TERMINALS HAVE A LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN, EXCEPT FOR
SHOWERS WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
25KT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ107-116-118-119-
122.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ107-
116-118-119-122.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...VAN CLEAVE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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