242
FXUS65 KSLC 241640
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1040 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- 50% CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY-TUESDAY THAT WILL
HAVE A TROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH WHERE THEY REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN
PLAINS. FORCING FOR THESE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
BUT RAINFALL RATES COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. FRIDAY SEEMS TO HAVE A
BIT MORE COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDES MORE
FORCING FOR STORMS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW 50% OF MEMBERS
ARE MARRYING THIS TROUGH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
POLO AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO AND TREKS TO THE EAST.
THE OTHER 50% OF MEMBERS KEEP A BULK OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. IF THE WETTER SOLUTION PLAYS OUT THEN THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THAT
SOILS ARE MOIST FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS OF MONSOON MOISTURE.
THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL ACCOMPANY THE AIRMASS THAT
MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS USHERED IN BY THE TROUGH.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. THE TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING TO DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 18-19Z AND BACK AGAIN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 4Z THIS EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURING AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20%.
FIRE WEATHER
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS COVER MOST
OF THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UTAH
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT RAIN RATES COULD BE HEAVY GIVEN THE MOISTURE
CONTENT. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM THAT COULD MIX WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...MAHAN
AVIATION...TEKOE
FIRE WEATHER...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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