119
FXUS65 KSLC 031858
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1258 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY BRINGS THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN UT WHERE FUELS
ARE CRITICALLY DRY.
- AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY, THE THREAT FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS INCREASES FOR THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION, OR HAVE CHRONIC HEALTH
CONDITIONS.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT SATURDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS LOOK TO DEVELOP STATEWIDE.
DISCUSSION
TO START THE PERIOD, MODEST ZONAL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL CLIP
NORTHERN UT, SERVING TO INCREASE WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SOMEWHAT BEFORE DECOUPLING AND CALMING BY MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15%), PRIMARILY ACROSS THE UT HIGH
TERRAIN AND WASATCH FRONT. ANY SHOWER THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS TO AROUND 45MPH IN THE PRESENCE OF DCAPE
RANGING FROM 1200-1400J/KG. FORTUNATELY, A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT IS
PRECLUDED GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISPLACED
TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKER BACKGROUND WINDS. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, GRADUAL HEIGHT
RISES AMIDST DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHICH WILL SERVE
TO RAISE TEMPERATURES MARKEDLY. HEATING IS MODERATED SOMEWHAT ACROSS
NORTHERN UT TOMORROW DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BRUSHING BY
SLOWLY THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS, THE WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 10-15F ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN BRINGING
PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. WHILE THESE
TEMPERATURES FALL SHORT OF HEATRISK RELATED HEADLINE ISSUANCE ACROSS
MOST VALLEYS, PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO KEEP YOURSELF AND OTHERS
SAFE SUCH AS STAYING HYDRATED, WEARING LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE
CLOTHING, AND LIMITING TIME IN THE DIRECT SUNLIGHT.
WINDS ALSO LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AREAWIDE STARTING THURSDAY,
AND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER DANGER LOOKS TO
INCREASE AS WELL. REGARDING THE FIRE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN UT
TOMORROW, GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MARKEDLY NORTH,
KEEPING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN UT GENERALLY LESS THAN 30MPH.
THERE IS STILL LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL ADJACENT TO
GLEN CANYON TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHERE THERE EXISTS A 50-70% CHANCE
OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30MPH. AS SUCH, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
CANCELLED FOR TOMORROW, PRECLUDING ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADES.
AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AS A DEEPENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AMIDST STRONG MIXING TO AROUND 5KM
FROM THE SURFACE FAVORS STRONG WINDS TRANSLATING TO THE SURFACE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40MPH RANGE FROM 20-
40% ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT VALLEYS ON SATURDAY WITH
CHANCES DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO
THE NORTH SOMEWHAT.
REGARDING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT STRONG TO SEVERE
MICROBURSTS. SATURDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL SPREADS FOR
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE, THOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS APPARENT AMONGST THE
GLOBAL SUITES ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN UT. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD
PVA AMIDST HEIGHT FALLS AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN UT
MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GLOBALS TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SETUPS, THOUGH THIS
BEARS WATCHING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE
REMAINING NOT TOO FAR OFF IN ORDER TO BETTER IRON OUT MORE MINOR
DETAILS.
ON SUNDAY, COOLER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH SERVING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER MIDLEVEL TROUGH LOOK TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
MONDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN, POSING ANOTHER RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF UT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM 5-15% ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT.
REGARDING THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN UT, FORECAST WINDS HAVE SEEN A
DECREASE RESULTING IN A MORE LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT, PRIMARILY ACROSS SE UT.
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING A PROLONGED
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT LASTING
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40MPH AND HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 5-15%
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...MAHAN
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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