946
FXUS65 KSLC 291018
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
418 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
MAINLY SOUTHERN THROUGH EASTERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH
THIS MORNING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH LATE LAST EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS OF AROUND 1.1 INCHES
CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH, AND AROUND 0.8-0.9 INCHES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DRIER.
THE PRECIPITATION THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF GENERALLY
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH SOME AREAS SEEING BRIEFLY MODERATE
RATES. RADAR ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITATION VARY QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEPENDING ON THE METHODOLOGY, BUT OBSERVATIONS FROM PRECIPITATION
GAGES HAVE BEEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE LOWER VALUES (GENERALLY LESS
THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS). EVEN SO, THERE
REMAINS SOME HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE
BASINS, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOWER
LEVELS HAVE BECOME MORE MOIST COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MOSTLY EXITED TO THE EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT, MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH, AS SOUTHERN UTAH MAY BE A BIT
SUPPRESSED BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE
RAIN. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY, AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED AND GENERALLY WEAKER, RESULTING
IN GREATLY REDUCED CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES, WHILE GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER, WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/6AM SUNDAY)
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE
MUCH DRIER AND QUIETER THAN THIS PAST WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
AND LARGELY QUIESCENT WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AN
ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES BY SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS DRIER AIR MASS, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, OWING TO PWATS STILL AROUND 80-90% OF NORMAL
COMBINED WITH SOLAR INSOLATION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE BY MID-WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT
AND MAGNITUDE STILL REMAINS. THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ACTUALLY STILL SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN MOISTURE (EXCEPT
MAYBE IN ST. GEORGE)...WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE FAVORING AN INCREASE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN UTAH. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE DRY MICROBURSTS GIVEN OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE, THOUGH WE'LL
NEED TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IF THE
WETTER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
AVIATION...KSLC
LIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 17-19Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER ~19Z OVER NEARBY HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING KSLC DIRECTLY (20% CHANCE).
IF A STORM DOES MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT,
STRATIFORM RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS
MORNING, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE RAINFALL
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, REACHING KPUC
AROUND 10Z AND KU69 AS EARLY AS 12Z. ACROSS AREAS THAT DID NOT
EXPERIENCE THIS RAINFALL, INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF KPVU-KHCR-KEVW AND
NORTH OF KDTA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ~18-19Z. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD,
MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN THROUGH
EAST-CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY TREND DRIER
AGAIN. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WETTING RAIN. THE DRYING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MUCH MORE LIMITED. DURING THIS DRYING TREND, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD, WITH AFTERNOON MINS INTO THE MID
TO LOW TEENS IN MANY VALLEY AREAS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER, BUT AFTERNOON MAXES ONLY
REACH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
CHENG/CUNNINGHAM
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