090  
FXUS65 KSLC 031049  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
349 AM MST SUN MAR 3 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION  
THROUGH MONDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE  
AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z/5AM TUESDAY)
 
THE COLD FRONT THAT RIPPED  
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY STALLED  
NEAR A KTPH-KRIF-KVEL LINE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT, BUT A TRAILING WAVE  
WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT IS CURRENTLY NOSING IN, AS EVIDENCED BY  
INCREASING PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON RADAR. WINDS HAVE  
DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FROM THE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY LEVELS SEEN  
YESTERDAY, BUT STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
UTAH STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS  
IN EFFECT.  
 
THE PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THE BOUNDARY BACK  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, PUSHING IT WELL INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY  
MID- MORNING, AND RE- IGNITING SNOW ALONG IT. THIS SNOW WILL BE  
MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH THE PRECIPITATION  
BECOMING A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS  
THE JET WEAKENS AND THE WAVE TRACKS EAST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE  
ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
THOUGH AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE FRONT. CURRENT SUITE OF HEADLINES LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THIS  
NEXT WAVE. SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY  
OVER NORTHERN UTAH, THE WEST DESERT IN PARTICULAR. HOWEVER, THOUGH  
SOME ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION, DURATION AND COVERAGE OF SUCH GUSTS DOES NOT APPEAR TO  
BE ENOUGH TO ADD A WIND ADVISORY.  
 
IN PREVIOUS DAYS HAD BEEN SEEING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE  
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE END OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA  
WITH THIS STORM. GUIDANCE YESTERDAY HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A  
SOLUTION THAT KEPT THE FINAL WAVE OF THE SYSTEM PRIMARILY NORTH OF  
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MOST PRECIPITATION TO END OVER THE AREA BY  
EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, INVESTIGATION OF THE VARIOUS MODELS TODAY  
SHOWS THAT THEY NOW PREDOMINATELY FAVOR A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE  
FINAL WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY MONDAY, ALLOWING  
FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF I-80. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY  
LIGHT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING WORTH NOTING. ANTICIPATING AN END TO  
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z/5AM TUESDAY)
 
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD REMAINS  
FAIRLY ACTIVE, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY LOW QPF  
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SOUTHERN  
AREAS WILL BE DRIER TO START ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHTER  
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY,  
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS  
REGIME ISN'T EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
APPROACH MID-WEEK. DESPITE A LACK OF OVERALL DYNAMICS, LINGERING  
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION,  
WITH QPF LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 0.1" IN VALLEYS AND 0.25" IN THE  
MOUNTAINS (TUES-WED). RISING SNOW LEVELS MEANS VALLEY PRECIPITATION  
TYPES WILL LIKELY BE RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
 
AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACNW, THERE IS  
SOME QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH PHASES WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE  
WEST COAST, LIKELY IMPACTING TIMING. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE  
WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA. CURRENTLY, THE MOST  
LIKELY TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT IS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY, THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RANGE ANYWHERE FROM WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS  
FRONTAL PASSAGE INCLUDE DECREASING SNOW LEVELS, A TRANSITION TO SNOW  
IN MOST VALLEYS, AND A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE  
BAROCLINIC ZONE. EXPECT ROUGHLY ANOTHER 0.1" QPF IN VALLEYS AND  
0.25" IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH ON  
FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN LINGER AS LATE AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN LIKELY TO BUILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH  
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...KSLC
 
A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR-IFR  
CONDITIONS TO KSLC BETWEEN ROUGHLY 11-15Z, THOUGH SOME LESS  
IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON AND OFF IN THE VICINITY THROUGH  
00Z. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION THIS (SUNDAY) MORNING,  
PARTICULARLY WITH WHEN WINDS TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY.  
GUSTY CROSSWINDS UP TO 25-30KTS ARE LIKELY AFTER 18-19Z.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
 
AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH  
ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH, MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO  
NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON NORTH OF KMLF. THESE  
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST AREAS AFTER 16-18Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25-40KTS  
EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
UTZ102>105-107-115.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ106-  
108>113-116-118.  
 
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ117-125.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ127>131.  
 
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ021.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN  
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
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