947
FXUS65 KSLC 150406
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1006 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2019
SYNOPSIS
WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITCOL AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTS WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. FROM THERE THIS FEATURE WILL EXHIBIT SOME
WEAKEN WITH JUST A SMALL CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE
RESIDUAL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WELL MIXED AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE
STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED WITH READING
GENERALLY RUNNING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
THE MOISTURE POOLED OVER ARIZONA WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH
TONIGHT, THEN CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN UTAH SUNDAY. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WORK NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ADVANCING TROUGH SHOULD TAP INTO SCOULDOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND
DRAW IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ALONG AND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
STRONGEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK DIVE BETWEEN
15-20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A MORE MODEST 5 TO 12 DEGREE
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, WITH SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN NEAR 7000 FEET DURING THIS PRECIP EVENT.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE MID-WEEK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
LATE IN THE WEEK. FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THE DETERMINISTIC VERSIONS SEEM TO BE IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING.
THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE WILL APPROACH UTAH LATE THURSDAY BRINGING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOWLEVELS WILL
AGAIN DIP TO AROUND 9,500 FT OR SO, RESULTING IN SOME WHITE
PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN UTAH. THE
FEATURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF UTAH BY LATE FRIDAY LEAVING BEHIND
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DURING THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z.
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY. RH VALUES INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH THE NEXT MOISTURE SURGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-15.
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY MONDAY, WINDS
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
COOLER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ494-497-498.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ482-489.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ478-492-495.
WY...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP
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