185
FXUS65 KSLC 161029
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
429 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1213 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTHERN, AND NORTHEAST UT,
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY NORTH.
CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE FOR NORTHERN UT STARTING FRIDAY.
- THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/4)
STARTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR SOUTHWEST UT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN UT AND PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL UT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WATCH MAY BE
EXTENDED AS MORE FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1124 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED JUST EAST OF UTAH
THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH. PWATS ACROSS MOST
VALLEYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST UTAH ARE NOW OVER 1.1
INCHES, WITH UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
EXPECT PWATS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (WIDESPREAD PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR
MORE ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK). WITH THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING TO MOISTEN, THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA, AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE MODELS AT
THIS TIME TO AID WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE
THREAT. GIVEN THIS AND WEAK FLOW, EXPECT MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THEN
LARGELY PROPAGATE ALONG COLD POOLS AND INSTABILITY GRADIENTS.
HOWEVER, SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING WILL
SERVE AS FOCUS POINTS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, WHICH, WHEN
FALLING OVER SENSITIVE DRAINAGES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MAIN DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY
WILL BE STRONGER INSTABILITY AND INCREASED WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH,
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1124 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KSLC...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, LIKELY BY 07Z
BUT AS LATE AS 09Z. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY LIKELY
BETWEEN 17-18Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 19Z, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE INCREASES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS AFTER ~01-03Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AROUND KCDC-KSGU THROUGH 14Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH CHANCES FOR MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN/BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS
AND VARIABLE OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UTAH'S
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEY AREAS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN/ CENTRAL
UTAH WILL DIMINISH INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE
REINVIGORATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE STATE AFTER ABOUT
1200. WHILE NORTHWESTERN UTAH (BOX ELDER AND NORTHERN TOOELE
COUNTY) WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY TODAY, THE EXTENT OF SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BEAR
RIVER MOUNTAINS/ NORTHERN WASATCH. AS THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME, CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IN
THIS AREA WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
(15-30 PERCENT). FOR AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH, ANTICIPATE
A GENERALLY MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
WETTING RAINS AS STORMS DEVELOP. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS, STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN FEATURES, THEN DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN INTO ADJACENT
VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.
SO LONG AS THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH IT
WILL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ANTICIPATE DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONGSIDE
HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
UTZ121>131.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...WEBBER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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