318  
FXUS65 KSLC 182208  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
408 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
ONE LAST DAY OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SHIFT  
TO MORE ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL BRING LITTLE  
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)  
WHILE NOT AS ACTIVE AS  
THURSDAY, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA  
THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 500-1000  
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH...THOUGH WEAK CIN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE  
BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY  
CEDAR CITY TO HANKSVILLE.  
 
THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY  
NEAR THE NEVADA AND IDAHO BORDERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING NEAR PERSISTENT STORMS OVER BURN SCARS AND  
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 8  
PM.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DAY WITH MUCH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION AS  
THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION SLIDES EASTWARD.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED 342 AM MDT  
 
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACNW SUNDAY, WHILE A RIDGE  
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AS THE  
RIDGE TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH, SOUTHWEST FLOW  
WILL ENHANCE. GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING DRIER CONDITIONS  
IN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THAN THE  
START OF THE WEEKEND AND LARGELY BE NEAR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT WARRANT RED FLAG WARNINGS, BUT  
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE  
TEENS, FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE.  
 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME POSITIVELY-TILTED  
MONDAY. THAT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS, WHILE  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
BECOME LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING  
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH THROUGHOUT SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN  
UTAH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE  
DIGITS TO TEENS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LOWER FURTHER  
FROM SATURDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THAT WILL BRING A  
SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN WINDS, BUT CONTINUED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH  
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS  
TO THE SAME LOCATIONS.  
 
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE THAT WILL PREVAIL TO  
THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND UTAH WILL KEEP  
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW OR MID 90S FOR  
VALLEYS, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...KSLC  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00-04Z WHICH COULD BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING, BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WHICH MAY REDUCE  
VISIBILITIES, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTSIDE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL,  
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS EVENING.  
   
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL  
FOR MOST OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING FOCUSED MORE ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING,  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BRIEFLY REDUCING VIS, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
OUTFLOW WINDS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
ONE LAST DAY OF RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL TREND MUCH MORE ISOLATED SATURDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION, WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC  
COAST BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW  
HUMIDITIES TO WESTERN UTAH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
IN THESE AREAS BOTH DAYS.  
 
 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
KRUSE/WILSON/CHENG  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
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