951
FXUS65 KSLC 132110
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
310 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH.
- ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WEST FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MARCH
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
WITH A LOT OF WEATHER TO PREPARE FOR IN THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABBREVIATED.
AFTERNOON UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY EARLY SUNDAY. LOOKING AT THE NAEFS ANOMALIES, 500MB AND
700MB FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH IS EITHER AT THE 99.5TH PERCENTILE
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY OR OUTSIDE THE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL UTAH. 500MB WILL EXCEED 100KTS.
TIMING ON THE COLD FRONT VARIES AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT THE
MOST PROBABLE TIMING IS CROSSING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AFTER 3 PM,
REACHING CENTRAL UTAH AFTER 5 PM. NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT, VERY
STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE GREAT SALT LAKE
DESERT, UINTA COUNTY, WY, WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS, WESTERN UINTA
BASIN, CASTLE COUNTRY, THE BOOK CLIFFS, THE WASATCH PLATEAU, AND
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. STRONG CROSS WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FREMONT
JUNCTION AREA...SO THOSE WITH TRAVEL THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD USE CAUTION.
A PORTION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 50%) ALSO SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS TO 60-65 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH COUNTY. DECIDED GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS LOCATION AND
ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OF GUIDANCE BEFORE
DECIDING BETWEEN A WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WARNING.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE WASATCH FRONT, TOOELE VALLEY, AND CACHE
VALLEY, GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, THOUGH PER
USUAL AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE MAY SEE ENHANCED
WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION, MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG FLOW IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY, WHICH MAY BRING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH TO THE
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT.
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR GAP WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE WEATHER GETS A WHOLE LOT QUIETER AFTER SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
THE INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR A HISTORIC HEAT WAVE (FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR) WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORDS WILL FALL,
POTENTIALLY EVEN MONTHLY RECORD. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, PLAN FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE LIKE MAY THAN MARCH. HEAT SAFETY
GUIDELINES SUCH AS CARRYING ENOUGH WATER WILL BE EVEN MORE
IMPORTANT.
AVIATION...KSLC
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 02-03Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN
STRONG, WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MID-DAY SATURDAY, LIKELY SOMETIME
BETWEEN 17-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH BLDU
CHANCES/REDUCED VIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...CURRENTLY EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 35-45KTS SOMETIME BETWEEN
23-02Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WINDS WILL BECOME LARGELY
LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY
MID-MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND N-UT/SW-WY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, THOUGH BLDU CHANCES/REDUCED VIS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 35-60KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ101.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ102>105-107.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR UTZ106.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR UTZ110.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ112-113-117.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
UTZ114-120.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ121.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR UTZ123.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR WYZ021.
KRUSE/CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page