109
FXUS65 KSLC 240902
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
302 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BEAR LAKE AREA,
SOUTH AND EAST TO UINTA COUNTY, WY, THE WESTERN UINTAS AND DOWN
THE WASATCH PLATEAU WILL BRING A THREAT OF MICROBURST WINDS AND
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS WILL IMPACT LAKE POWELL/GLEN CANYON AND EASTERN
KANE COUNTY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
* HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF MICROBURST
WINDS AND LIGHTNING TO THE BEAR LAKE AREA, SOUTH AND EAST TO
UINTA COUNTY, WY, THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
WASATCH PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* SMOKE MODELING CONTINUES TO SHOW HEAVY NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY
ACROSS LAKE POWELL/GLEN CANYON AND EASTERN KANE COUNTY.
*CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN
UTAH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THESE
AREAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
*ANOTHER MONSOON SURGE INCREASES THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY.
WHILE THE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE QUIET FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES, THERE ARE A LOT OF IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES
UTAH REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS WILL SET UP UTAH TO REMAIN IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WHICH IS A TYPICAL PATTERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. MORE ABOUT THAT FORECAST IN THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS/BEAR LAKE AREA, UINTA COUNTY, WY DOWN TO THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY MEDIOCRE (MEAN SBCAPE IN THE 00Z HREF WAS AROUND 300-500
J/KG), THERE IS 25-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAMS SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH A PEAK WIND THREAT
AROUND 50 MPH. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS INCLUDING BEAR LAKE,
HIKING IN THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS, ETC, SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER AND GET TO SHORE IF NEEDED (FOR BOATERS) IF THREATENING
WEATHER IS OBSERVED.
FURTHER SOUTH, HEAVY WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE DRAGON BRAVO FIRE IS
MODELED BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT GLEN CANYON/LAKE POWELL AND EASTERN
KANE COUNTY AFTER ABOUT 18Z (NOON) TODAY. NEAR SURFACE
CONCENTRATIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODELED TO EXCEED 150-200 UG/M3,
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ON BOTH HIGHWAYS AND
LAKE POWELL AND CAUSE AIR QUALITY RELATED IMPACTS TO THOSE
RECREATING OUTDOORS. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS LOOK TO FALL AFTER ABOUT
08-09Z THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT REBOUND AGAIN FRIDAY. WHILE SPECIFIC
CONCENTRATIONS WILL RELY ON THE HRRR ADEQUATELY MODELING THE
WILDFIRE, THOSE WITH PLANS IN THIS AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
RAPIDLY INCREASING NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS AFTER
18Z/NOON TODAY.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL MONSOON SURGE LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE INITIAL EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE TUESDAY
MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT OF NEW WILDFIRE STARTS RELATED TO
LIGHTNING RATHER THAN EASING THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION...SLC
SCT-BKN MID DECK WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS, BUT MOST
WILL NOT, WITH LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE, A
FEW CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER NEARBY TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
20-22Z, WHEN NW LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE
TERMINAL, THEN SWITCHING TO SSE DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND 04Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SW WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LOCALIZED, GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS OF NE UTAH, CENTRAL UTAH AND SW WYOMING. BEST CHANCE FOR
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS IS ACROSS NE UTAH AND SW WYOMING,
MAINLY BETWEEN 19Z-02Z THIS EVENING. SMOKE IMPACTS EXPECTED
ACROSS SE UTAH, WITH POTENTIAL CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR
AND LOCALLY IFR IN EXTREME SE UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH UTAH IN DEEP, DRY, AND HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT INCREASINGLY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING AT LEAST POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUGGEST MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE TUESDAY, LIGHTNING AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD MAY
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF LIGHTNING RELATED STARTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/DESMET
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