055
FXUS65 KSLC 231822
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1122 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- A WARM PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW GENERALLY
ABOVE 8000 FEET TO NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A RESULT.
A LANDFALLING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SHIFT IN
THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED STOUT UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD
EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH WILL FIRST BRING ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN UTAH MOUNTAINS. RECENT
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN UTAH BEGINNING AROUND MID- MORNING TUESDAY, SPREADING
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE JET SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. LIFT
MAXIMIZES OVER NORTHERN UTAH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HIGH
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY
INCREASING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND 6500 FEET AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 8000 FEET BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAXING OUT AROUND 8500-9000 FEET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OVERALL REMAIN
CONFINED TO HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
WILL LIMIT ANY TRAVEL IMPACTS TO SLUSHY CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGH
MOUNTAIN ROUTES LIKE LOGAN SUMMIT, THE UPPER COTTONWOOD CANYONS,
AND WOLF CREEK SUMMIT. THE WARM NATURE OF THIS STORM ALSO MEANS
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY HEAVY AND WET. WITH ALREADY
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS IN PLACE PER THE UTAH AVALANCHE
CENTER, EXTRA CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR THOSE PLANNING TO HEAD INTO
THE BACKCOUNTRY.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST COAST, EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF OUR MOISTURE TAP. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THIS
RIDGE TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, KEEPING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MORE UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES
SUNDAY AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH A
ROUGH 50/50 SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR TWO DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD SEE INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, ALLOWING MODEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SNEAKING
INTO NORTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY AND BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. THE OTHER SCENARIO KEEPS THE
STOUT RIDGE PARKED ACROSS UTAH, WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN THE STATUS
QUO OF CONTINUED DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...KSLC
MONDAY LIKELY TO SEE NW DIURNAL WIND SHIFT
DELAYED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING
VFR CLOUD COVER. WINDS SHIFT BACK S ~02-04Z TUESDAY, WITH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LOWER CLOSE TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LEVEL BY MORNING.
AS A SYSTEM PUSHES IN, WINDS ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN S THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE
PERSISTENT RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY EVENING ON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
DIURNALLY TYPICAL WINDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH MAGNITUDES LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KTS OUTSIDE OF EXPOSED HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS). AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCT VFR CLOUD COVER. AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THICKENING AND
LOWERING VFR CLOUDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH FURTHER LOWERING
TO NEAR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION LEVEL BY MORNING. SHOWER CHANCES THEN
BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW LEVELS
GENERALLY ABOVE 7500-8000 FT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WHITLAM
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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