686
FXUS65 KSLC 250528
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1128 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE STATE. LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.
- WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 40-50
MPH WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FROST FOR THE CACHE VALLEY AND WASATCH BACK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO RIPPLE
THROUGH UTAH TONIGHT. MOISTURE THAT SPREAD INTO THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WANING EARLY MORNING.
LINGERING MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A THREAT OF STRONG AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE
OUT THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL UTAH WHERE PWATS WILL BE HIGHER, WHICH COULD BRING A
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THE STRONGER CELLS MOVE INTO THE
WRONG AREA.
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY, THIS AS
A TROUGH STRENGTHENS INTO THE PACNW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER UTAH AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THESE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, WILL RESULT IN HIGHER-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES AS WELL.
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, A COLD
FRONT CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ON SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL UTAH.
AS TRAILING ENERGY CONTINUES TO CARVE INTO THE TROUGH, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
MAY SEE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MODERATED A BIT DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES, HOWEVER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH, MAY MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RUN 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND SOME NORTHERN VALLEYS MAY FAIL TO EVEN REACH
70 DEGREES. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT AS SKIES CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT, PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE CACHE
VALLEY AND WASATCH BACK.
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY TREND
WARMER AGAIN. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.
AVIATION
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z. WHILE THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AROUND ~19-20Z, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 20Z WILL LIKELY CAUSE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLANTWISE VIS REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIKELY
ENDING BY 12Z STATEWIDE. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LARGELY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE
ERRATIC WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN AFTER 19Z ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING, AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-
50KTS. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLANTWISE VIS
REDUCTIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UTAH.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 509 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER UTAH TODAY BRINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL UTAH STORMS WILL BE TEND TO LEAN A ON THE WETTER SIDE,
WHILE FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH DRIER AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SUPPORTING HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
LEAN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL UTAH INTO THE WASATCH FRONT TODAY, WITH LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. FOR THIS
THREAT, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TODAY FOR SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS UTAH ON THURSDAY BUT WILL START
TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, WHICH WILL SHIFT THE BEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO EASTERN UTAH WITH DRIER AIR
INTRUDING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH ON THURSDAY,
BUT ALSO WILL STILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO NORTH-EASTERN
UTAH.
THERE IS THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNFICIANT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE STATE WITH
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COMBINED WITH LOW
RH VALUES IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE, AND EXTREMELY POOR
RECOVERIES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FROM A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THUS THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG WIND FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS UTAH AHEAD OF
THIS APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHILE VERY DRY AIR GETS DRAWN UP
ACROSS UTAH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL, QUICKLY SWEEPING OUT THE
MID-WEEK MOISTURE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM WIND AND RH LAST FOR MORE
THAN 24 HOURS FROM FRIDAY WITH NO BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND RIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
WE ARE GROWING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THIS SETUP COULD BE
THE MOST SIGNFICIANT FIRE WEATHER SETUP WE'VE SEEN THIS YEAR,
COMING ON THE HEELS OF AN ACTIVE WEEK WITH LARGE FIRES BURNING
ALREADY, THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS AND THEN CONCLUDING THE WEEK
WITH A HIGHER END WIND AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVER EVENT. THE ONLY
SILVER LINING IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 25
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BY SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER SOUTHERN UTAH WILL ONLY COOL BY ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES WITH MIN RH VALUES ONLY COMING UP TO AROUND 15%.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR UTZ478-482-484-488-489-492-495-497.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR UTZ493-
494-496-498.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...CUNNINGHAM
FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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