871
FXUS65 KSLC 280043
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
642 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1116 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN UTAH, WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.
- A PASSING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1116 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING, WITH
THE AXIS NOW ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE RESULTANT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING IS STARTING TO DRAW
MONSOON MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD, WITH THIS MOST EVIDENT OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH ON SATELLITE, WITH PWS BACK OVER AN INCH. SEEING A
BIT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THIS AXIS
OF INCREASING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE, WITH MAXES UP TO 5F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
WITH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE INCREASED STEERING FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
QUICKER STORM MOVEMENT, WHICH DECREASES THE FLOODING THREAT
SLIGHTLY BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME MORE VALLEY DRIFT. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER JET WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH, ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS
BY PUTTING THAT PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER JET IS DUE TO A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL FLATTEN AND CONTINUE
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTHERN UTAH, ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH MAXES FALLING TO AROUND 5F
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, THOUGH RH VALUES SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. LOOK AT ENSEMBLES, THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH LOOKS LOW (20 PERCENT OR
LESS), BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS THIS
HIGH.
WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, THIS WILL OPEN UP THE WEST TO IMPACTS FROM A SERIES OF
TROUGHS NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LACKING IN THE DETAILS OF
IMPACTS FROM ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS GETTING
INCREASINGLY HIGH IN THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGE.
AVIATION
KSLC...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SLC TERMINAL NEAR 04Z
BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ERRATIC WINDS TO THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS, LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC
TERMINAL BEFORE SWITCHING SOUTH NEAR 02Z. FRIDAY, THERE IS AROUND A
20-30% CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH ANY
POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS ARISING FROM STRONG CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ATOP THE TERMINAL.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOWS WILL LINGER
INTO LATE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING ESPECIALLY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
GREATEST IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL FOR DECREASED CONDITIONS BELOW VFR
WOULD ARISE FROM ANY STRONGER CONVECTION ATOP A TERMINAL. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR A DIURNALLY NORMAL DIRECTION PATTERN, BUT BE
HEAVILY IMPACTED BY ANY OUTFLOWS.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 1249 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY, AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE VALLEY DRIFT.
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FOR
NORTHERN UTAH. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY FOR FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN UTAH, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, IT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN UTAH, WITH AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS. IT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS, AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT
WEEK.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page