592  
FXUS65 KSLC 192148  
AFDSLC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT  
348 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
UPCOMING WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE  
WESTERN US.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED  
ONSHORE THROUGH THE BAY AREA OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON  
RESULTING IN A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM THE SIERRA MOUNTAIN  
RANGE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA AND INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. PER WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY, THE JET CAN BE SEEN RACING THROUGH SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY RESIDE. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CARVE THROUGH  
NEVADA, IT BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THE GREATEST ASCENT  
WILL REMAIN FROM SOUTHWEST UTAH THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH THIS  
EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED SOME THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE  
BECOMING LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER, STILL REMAINING 15-18 DEGREES  
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND SOME  
ISOLATED LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40 MPH RANGE.  
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
AS THE TROUGH DIGS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY, THE AREA  
OVERHEAD UTAH BECOMES STRETCHED AND MORE DIFFUSE. JUST ENOUGH  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND PV ALOFT TO CONTINUE ASCENT FOR SHOWERY  
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A BREAK EARLY IN THE DAY SEEMS REASONABLE. BY  
LATE MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND  
SNOWLEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE EACH DAY, BUT REMAIN AROUND 7000 - 8000  
FEET AGL. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY, HOWEVER NO  
ONE PERIOD LOOKS OVERLY EXCITING.  
 
THE PATTERN IN GENERAL LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO DAY THROUGH  
MID-WEEK. TUESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL KICK OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH  
ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE (SHORTWAVE TROUGH) SLIDING DOWN THE  
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER AND REDEVELOPING THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH  
OVER NEVADA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT EACH DAY OSCILLATE FROM -1C TO  
-4C, RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING COOLER THAN NORMAL  
BUT NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO DAY. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE  
CALMER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  
   
LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)
 
A BROAD PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED  
TO BE CENTERED AROUND THE AZ/NV/UT TRIPLE POINT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
WHICH MEANS THAT THE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE  
SYSTEM WILL SPLIT OVER UTAH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH THE  
STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH SLIDING INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA WHILE THE  
SOUTHERN PIECE OF IT HANGS OUT OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.  
WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING WEAKER AND THE AIRMASS BECOMING A BIT  
DRIER WITH THE EXIT OF THE STRONGER FEATURE, LOOKING AT DECREASING  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO  
NORTHWEST UTAH, BUT EC/GFS INDICATE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL NOT  
END THERE, AS THEY SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM  
SLIDING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SPREADING EAST FOR DAY SEVEN AND  
BEYOND, SO HAVE SHOWN POPS INCREASING AGAIN BY THE END OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WARM DURING THE  
LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER, WITH MAXES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS POSSIBLE  
BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AT THE  
SLC TERMINAL, WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FEET AGL PREVAILING DUE TO  
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
WEAKEN SOME BY THE EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DEWEY  
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN  
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY  
 
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP  
 
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