842
FXUS65 KSLC 121812
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1212 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF UT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT
THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DEVELOP TOMORROW, PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO SEASONALLY-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY, POTENTIALLY
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS WITH UT SETTLED WELL WITHIN A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME SERVING
TO PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY, WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1" WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF UT WITH SOUTHWEST UT
POTENTIALLY SEEING PWAT'S IN EXCESS OF 1.3" PER MESOANALYSIS. THIS
WILL ENABLE MATURE STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY YIELDING A FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE OVER PROBLEMATIC TERRAIN.
AS THE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST SOMEWHAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THIS WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH OVER THE PNW TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN STRONGER
FORCING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FLOODING THREAT
GIVEN MOISTURE QUALITY IS UP IN THE AIR, THOUGH TOMORROW LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN ROBUST MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE POTENTIALLY
ENHANCING THE FLOODING THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGER ASCENT VIA THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MAY POTENTIALLY YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD MATURE
STORMS, INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK ON A LARGER SCALE. ONE
FAILURE MODE WITH TOMORROW REGARDING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE FASTER
STORM MOTIONS, THOUGH TRAINING STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY OFFSET THIS.
COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DECREASE FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MID-UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE,
HOWEVER, RESULTING IN DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS MUCH OF UT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL SERVE TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
ROUGHLY 10F BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
ON MONDAY, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO RETROGRESS WEST CENTERING ITSELF OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ONCE AGAIN, OPENING UP UT TO MORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE RETURN. AS OF NOW, CHANCES APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF UT
ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MODERATED
FOLLOWING A BRIEF WARM-UP INTO MONDAY WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...KSLC
THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE SOUTH BY 14Z BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 18Z AND
20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS STAY NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL, PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, BRINGING A LOW
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST
RESULTING IN CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS UT BRINGING
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE STATE. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THURSDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
THROUGH THIS STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST SOMEWHAT WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH FRIDAY. COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE STATE KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONFINED
TO HIGHER TERRAIN. ON MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK WEST
SOMEWHAT POTENTIALLY BRINGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK TO UT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WORSTER
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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