972
FXUS65 KSLC 220414
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEAR ANY OF THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ACROSS
WESTERN UTAH ON TUESDAY.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN UTAH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND UINTA COUNTY, WY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF UTAH.
UTAH WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A
THREAT OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH NEAR THE BOUNDARY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SBCAPE VALUES WILL BE MEAGER,
WITH THE HREF MEAN AROUND 100-250 J/KG, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 30 KTS OR SO. GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD ENVIRONMENT,
EXPECT A FEW MICROBURSTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL IN THE LATEST HRRR WITH WIND GUSTS FIELDS
INDICATING ISOLATED MICROBURSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS
AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MICROBURST WINDS NEAR TO ABOVE 45
MPH, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TERRAIN IN COMMUNITIES SUCH AS
FERRON, EMERY, AND TORREY.
MEAN UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERIOR WEST SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT, LOW 90S FOR ST GEORGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN FOR EARLY TO MID-
NEXT WEEK. AS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AROUND 40% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS EVENTUALLY CUT-OFF THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND
RETROGRADE THIS CUT-OFF LOW WESTWARD. AROUND 60% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH, WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MAIN POINT IS THAT
CONDITIONS LOOK UNSETTLED EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, BUT SYNOPTIC
DETAILS REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY
BY 06Z, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS NORTHERN SITES. ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH, ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BRING A 20%
CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF
KCDC AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH TOMORROW, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOCALLY GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THOSE STORM.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE ON WARMING AND DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BY TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THERE IS
NOW ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM A
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND. THERE IS EVEN ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL EXCEED 45 MPH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH DURING
THIS PERIOD OF LOW HUMIDITY. BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS INCREASING
SPREAD IN HOW QUICKLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD,
BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE THE SPREAD THE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN EASTERN UTAH BY WEDNESDAY.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
KRUSE/SEAMAN/CHURCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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