303
FXUS65 KSLC 221710
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1010 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVING DRY AND
INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- A WARM PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION.
DISCUSSION
A COOL START TO THE DAY IN MANY SPOTS TODAY, WITH SOME
SHELTERED SOUTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS EVEN SEEING OVERNIGHT MINS
NEAR TO BELOW ZERO. ADDITIONALLY, IT DOES APPEAR SOME LOCALIZED
FOG DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN SOME SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY THE CACHE. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH OF TO OBSERVE OUTSIDE OF
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FILTER THROUGH OVERHEAD.
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN H7 TEMPERATURES.
IN TURN WILL SEE HIGHS AND LOWS TREND UPWARDS, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST UTAH, AND AROUND 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AT
LEAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
BY TUESDAY AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE. ASSOCIATED STRONG JET FLOW WILL HELP TO INITIATE MODERATELY
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL IVT VALUES
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS DECAYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TYPE SETUP WILL
BE MILD IN NATURE, AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW STARTING TUESDAY, PEAKING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, AND TAPERING OFF LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE
MODELS STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TIMING OF SUCH PASSAGE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED AFTER MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH FOR MOST OF THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT AS A RESULT, INCREASING FROM AROUND
7000-8000 FT TUESDAY MORNING TO 8000-9000 FT OR TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FINALLY DECREASING AGAIN SOME THROUGH
THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD QUANTITY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, WATER AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE DECENT
(60-70% CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF WATER), BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FT OR SO. AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAR MORE MODEST THAN THE PRIOR SYSTEM. GIVEN THE "HOSE"
LIKE NATURE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT, THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP STILL, BUT EVEN AT THE 90TH
PERCENTILE THE NBM ONLY MANAGES TO BRING PRECIPITATION AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE I-70 CORRIDOR OR SO.
MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT SOME REESTABLISHMENT TO THE WESTERN
RIDGE AS THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
UPWARD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BY FRIDAY AROUND 7-15F ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST REGION. GIVEN THE RIDGE WON'T BE TOO SHARP, STILL
WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TRY TO SNEAK THROUGH, AND
MAINTAIN LOW (AROUND 10-30%) CHANCES OF SOME LIGHT NORTHERN
SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS A PRETTY
GOOD SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, WITH A LOT OF VARIATION IN INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC RUNS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
CONSENSUS ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS ON ITS WESTERN EXTENT AND
ANY POTENTIAL FOR A GRAZING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOCALLY, AS WELL
AS IF/HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE DIURNAL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
DELAYED TODAY, OCCURRING AROUND THE 23-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE SHIFT BACK
TO SOUTHERLY MAY ALSO BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED TO AROUND 04-09Z, THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS AND MAY BE CHANGED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KLGU THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIURNAL WIND
SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
IFR VSBYS AND CIGS APPEARS LIKELY AT KLGU TOMORROW MORNING WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS 06Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WARTHEN
AVIATION...WORSTER
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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