608
FXUS65 KSLC 200420
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1020 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK TROUGH WILL SCRAPE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING,
ALONGSIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION BY MONDAY ALONGSIDE A RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN.
- AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A PORTION OF UTAH.
DISCUSSION
REMNANTS OF A COOLER AIRMASS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
MOST RECENT STORM SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTHERN AREA AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
AREA. LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING/ NORTHEAST UTAH WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/ SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH UINTA MOUNTAINS. GIVEN STABILIZING CONDITIONS OVERHEAD, THE
CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THIS SAME AREA IS
LOW, BUT NOT ZERO (5-15%).
AS ONE SYSTEM LEAVES OUR AREA, ANOTHER FOLLOWS QUICKLY IN ITS
WAKE. MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH DIVING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ARRIVING IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MAKING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IN CONDITIONS
THE INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INTO NORTHERN UTAH/
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY,
HELPING TO KICK OFF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS IT PAIRS WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD WORK THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND ALLOW FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH GREATER INTENSITY. AT
THIS TIME THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE SMALL HAIL (0.5 INCHES OR LESS) AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40-50 MPH.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STABILIZE MARGINALLY BY FRIDAY
AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION. THAT SAID,
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCES (10-15% CHANCE OR LESS) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH UINTA
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR HIGHEST TERRAIN FEATURES IN SOUTHERN UTAH.
RAPID WARMING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITS PRESENCE IN THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE LOWER END ANOMALY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREA AND THE HIGHER END EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONGSIDE THIS WARMTH
BEFORE OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM STARTS TAKING AIM ON THE REGION
FROM TUESDAY FORWARD.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND THIS SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, THE BIG PICTURE TRENDS TO LOOK OUT FOR (ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY) WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONGSIDE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS. ALL THREE OF THESE
VARIABLES WILL PAIR TO GENERATE POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...KSLC
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME WEDNESDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE THE
NORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK,
REACHING VALUES AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TEMPORARILY CURB THE WARMING TREND AND BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS TO NORTHEAST UTAH. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME
BREEZY WINDS, WHICH COULD BRING SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO SOME SOUTHERN UTAH VALLEYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...WEBBER
AVIATION...SEAMAN
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page