833
FXUS65 KSLC 030348
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
948 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS SHIFTS INTO
NORTHERN UTAH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES DIP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
BUT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
RETURN TO VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
WEAK RIDGING IS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS
EVENING, WITH UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING UNDER A GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. MAXES AVERAGED AROUND 10F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY AND
WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW.
THE PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER EASTWARD ONSHORE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY, AND THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL START TO DRAW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND HIGH BASED MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN THE
DRY LOWER LEVELS, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF
THIS CONVECTION PERSISTING PAST THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD.
FOR MONDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ELONGATE, WITH ITS POSITION
MOVING A DRY SLOT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGH BASED MOISTURE AND
ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY FROM THE DEFORMATION OF THE LOW. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP, WITH OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN WHAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHERN UTAH ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
MOST LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW OVER NORTHERN UTAH. BY THIS POINT, THE HIGH
BASED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SPREAD INTO THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS, DECREASING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT AT LEAST SOMEWHAT. THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR A DAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS BEFORE
ANOTHER BROAD PACIFIC RIDGE BRINGS THE RETURN OF DRY AND VERY MILD
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION...KSLC
WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH AROUND
04Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A RETURN TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 19-20Z SUNDAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH
BETWEEN 18-20Z. A MORE CONCERTED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN UTAH NEAR 22Z NEAR SGU AND KNB,
REACHING CDC AND BCE BETWEEN 23-01Z. CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FEET AND
GUSTY, MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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