636
FXUS65 KSLC 041034
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
434 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1010 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN MORE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH UP TO A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING OUR FIRST 100
DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AT KSLC.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1010 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER UTAH THIS
EVENING ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST
WYOMING HAVE DISSIPATED, LEAVING SOME PATCHY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH SAID DRIER AIR MOVING
IN, CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND EVEN MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
TREND WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY AND WILL LARGELY BECOME CONFINED
TO OVER AND NEAR THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO SET UP NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA, AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN LARGELY OVER AZ AND NM, WHILE A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BEING THE REMNANTS OF AN EASTERN PAC TROPICAL SYSTEM
LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS CA AND WESTERN NV, BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE TO THAT AREA. LATEST NBM MEAN PWATS ONLY REACH 0.6 INCHES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH,
EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN UTAH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL PEAK ON MONDAY, BUT EVEN THEN, THE NBM MEAN PWATS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE ONLY IN THE 0.6-0.75 INCH RANGE
(AND STILL REMAINING UNDER AN INCH AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH A
RANGE OF 0.8-0.9 INCHES). THEREAFTER, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
BACK TO UTAH. GIVEN THIS PATTERN, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO PEAK ON MONDAY, AND EVEN THEN, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE. THEN, CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE A
BIT TUESDAY BEFORE TRENDING MORE ISOLATED FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
SHORT DURATION OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, WITH
CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY HIGH-BASED AND PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH DRY LIGHTING AND
OUTFLOWS, BUT THAT ULTIMATELY DEPENDS OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE
CONVECTION BECOMES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY TREND NEAR STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY. WITH LOWER WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE
LAKE POWELL AREA SEEING TEMPERATURES OF 102-107 THROUGH THE WEEK
AND A FEW NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH VALLEY SITES NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, HEAT WILL START TO BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TRENDING WARMER AS WELL. MODERATE
HEATRISK BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION, ISSUED 1010 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KSLC, ISSUED 1010 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026...
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LARGELY NON-
IMPACTFUL. WINDS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW A DIURNALLY NORMAL PATTERN
WITH S WINDS SHIFTING NW BY AROUND 18-20Z SAT, AND BACK S 03-05Z
SUN. MAGNITUDES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. A FEW MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER THROUGH, BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...WEATHER PATTERN TO REMAIN
MINIMALLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AT AREA TERMINALS, AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL LARGELY FOLLOW A DIURNALLY TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERN WITH
MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 15 KTS. SOME MODEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS MAY MIX
INTO MORE EXPOSED OR HIGH ELEVATION TERMINALS LIKE EVW/CDC.
FIRE WEATHER
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WILL YIELD OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS AND CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT WILL MAINLY BE
TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE STATE. ELEVATED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING
IN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN UTAH. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL DWINDLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS SUCH, DIURNAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS. GRADUALLY DECREASING RH WITH INCREASINGLY POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION...WARTHEN
FIRE WEATHER...WHITLAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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