927
FXUS65 KSLC 242345
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
545 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1242 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
- DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING IN
LIKELIHOOD FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1242 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A FAIRLY STAGNANT RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM/CO, WITH A
BIT OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
A MIX OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL, THUS AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL EXISTS. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
THERE IS A BIT LESS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT IS LOWER. STILL, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50-60 MPH, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.
TOMORROW, AS THIS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES, SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOWER, WITH A LOWER FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL LARGELY FORM AND REMAIN OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
MAYBE FRIDAY COULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRAZING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POTENTIALLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN UTAH
LATE THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE ISN'T AS
FORWARD WITH THE TROUGH. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THIS COULD INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FLASH FLOODING, AND/OR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, DEPENDING ON HOW EXACTLY IT PLAYS OUT AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 03-04Z, BECOMING
LESS CONVECTIVE AND MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT. BRIEF PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL DURING THIS WINDOW,
PRIMARILY WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. DIURNAL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL RESUME AROUND 04-05Z.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET, TRANSITIONING TO MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
DIURNAL FLOWS AFTER SHOWERS ARE DONE.
FIRE WEATHER, ISSUED 102 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN LARGELY STAGNANT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE RESULTING
IN DAILY THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, DESPITE A SLOW DRYING
TREND. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME RH APPROACHING CRITICAL ACROSS WESTERN
VALLEYS AND FAR SOUTHERN UTAH (ST. GEORGE THROUGH LAKE POWELL AND
UP TO CANYONLANDS). THE DRIEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY FRIDAY, TOO.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PNW.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS
MOISTURE STILL RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ANOTHER WILDCARD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GRAZING WAVE LATER THIS
WEEKEND WHICH COULD PRODUCE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...CUNNINGHAM
AVIATION...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...CUNNINGHAM
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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