280
FXUS65 KSLC 280007
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
607 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES, ISSUED 1006 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A WEAK GRAZING SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO
BORDER.
- MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY, BRINGING
AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE AREA WILL SEE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THUS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM CROSSES THE AREA.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO POTENTIALLY DROP AS LOW AS
7500 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION, ISSUED 1006 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SEEING A ROUGHLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING BETWEEN AN EXIT WEAK STORM SYSTEM
AND ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL GRAZE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. MAXES TODAY SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT GRAZING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVERNIGHT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST MOVED
THROUGH. THAT IS, THE FRONT WILL ACT TO CURB ANY WARMING TREND AND
WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE UTAH/IDAHO BORDER. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TWO STORM SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST
THURSDAY, WITH THE WEAKER SOUTHERN ONE MERGING WITH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ONE BY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAP
INTO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. GUIDANCE OVERALL IS TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS PART OF THE EVENT, THOUGH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL REMAINS. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS, THERE SHOULD BE
A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ANTICIPATED TO ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE NEAR
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE POTENT SYSTEM AND ITS
STRONG ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AND GIVEN HOW SATURATED
SOILS ALREADY ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FROM THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL
EVENTS AS OF LATE, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
THAT MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE THAN PREVIOUS
EVENTS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION A BIT MORE STEADY IN
NATURE, PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF LIMITING FACTORS.
GIVEN ITS PACIFIC NORTHWEST ORIGIN, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING 10-15F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TO START THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL STEADILY LOWER SNOW LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF THOSE SNOW LEVELS
MOVING INTO THE 7000 TO 8000 FT RANGE.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST, LIKELY BRINGING AN AT LEAST TEMPORARY END TO THE
ACTIVE PATTERN AS OF LATE.
AVIATION
KSLC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINAL TONIGHT WITH
ONLY ~15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 05-08Z
WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP STAYS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A BRIEF SOUTHERLY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE A TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT NORTHERLIES
DURING THE DAY.
REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AIRSPACE TONIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF WIND OF
SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-10Z.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...MAHAN
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY
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