948  
FGUS73 KDVN 290434  
ESFDVN  
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-  
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-  
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1107 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2020  
   
..ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR  
RIVER BASINS IN THE NWS QUAD CITIES SERVICE AREA. THIS OUTLOOK IS  
DIVIDED INTO THREE PARTS, THE FIRST PART FOR THE PROBABILITIES OF  
MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING, THE SECOND PART FOR HIGH WATER  
AND THE FINAL PART FOR LOW WATER.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS  
IS LESS THAN HS, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 06/29/2020 - 09/27/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5  
DUBUQUE 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 7 5 6 <5 <5 <5  
BELLEVUE LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5  
FULTON LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 8 7 5 <5 <5 <5  
CAMANCHE 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 7 6 5 <5 <5 <5  
LE CLAIRE LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 8 7 6 <5 <5 <5  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 14 9 11 8 <5 <5  
ILL. CITY LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 13 8 7 7 <5 <5  
MUSCATINE 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 14 9 7 7 <5 <5  
NEW BOSTON LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 21 12 10 7 5 5  
KEITHSBURG 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 24 15 13 7 7 5  
GLADSTONE LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 24 18 11 6 6 5  
BURLINGTON 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 21 16 11 7 6 5  
KEOKUK LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 10 9 8 6 6 5  
GREGORY LANDING 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 25 22 9 8 <5 <5  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 28 21 18 10 7 7  
MAQUOKETA 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 18 11 16 6 10 <5  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 13 11 11 9 7 5  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 25 18 14 10 5 <5  
DE WITT 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : >95 49 >95 43 40 27  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 38 28 27 24 19 14  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 24 18 21 14 9 9  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 23 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 26 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
CEDAR RAPIDS 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 28 20 22 12 13 <5  
CEDAR BLUFF 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 28 20 10 <5 <5 <5  
CONESVILLE 13.0 15.0 16.5 : >95 35 23 13 <5 <5  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 54 40 36 30 17 9  
IOWA CITY 23.5 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 43 31 28 18 13 10  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
LONE TREE 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 15 12 8 6 <5 <5  
COLUMBUS JCT 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 10 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WAPELLO 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 77 18 5 <5 <5 <5  
OAKVILLE 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 89 18 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 13 11 6 8 <5 7  
ST FRANCISVILLE 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 26 19 9 9 <5 5  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 31 24 13 11 8 6  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 31 18 21 16 10 8  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 15 11 6 <5 <5 <5  
JOSLIN 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 30 24 18 18 9 10  
MOLINE 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 28 22 18 15 14 13  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 12 7 5 <5 <5 <5  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 38 33 25 24 11 10  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/29/2020 - 09/27/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 7.9 7.9 7.9 9.9 12.0 14.8 17.1  
DUBUQUE 10.1 10.1 10.2 11.8 13.9 16.7 18.8  
BELLEVUE LD12 8.9 8.9 8.9 10.6 12.6 14.9 18.1  
FULTON LD13 8.8 8.8 8.8 10.8 13.0 15.2 18.4  
CAMANCHE 11.2 11.2 11.3 12.5 14.0 15.8 18.9  
LE CLAIRE LD14 7.2 7.2 7.3 8.0 9.2 10.6 12.6  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.8 13.4 16.1 17.6  
ILL. CITY LD16 8.7 8.7 8.7 9.8 12.8 15.6 17.5  
MUSCATINE 10.5 10.5 10.5 11.4 14.3 17.4 19.5  
NEW BOSTON LD17 10.5 10.5 10.5 11.4 14.1 16.6 18.7  
KEITHSBURG 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 13.7 15.9 17.7  
GLADSTONE LD18 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.7 12.0 14.2  
BURLINGTON 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 14.5 16.6 18.9  
KEOKUK LD19 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 13.0 15.9 19.4  
GREGORY LANDING 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.7 15.0 17.2 20.9  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 6.0 6.0 7.2 9.7 14.8 19.0 21.3  
MAQUOKETA 12.6 12.6 13.2 15.8 21.1 28.3 29.9  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.8 9.6 13.4 16.5  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 14.4 19.3 21.8  
DE WITT 4S 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 13.4 13.8 13.8  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 12.5 12.5 12.7 14.3 19.6 24.1 24.9  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 10.7 10.7 10.8 11.1 14.9 19.7 24.5  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 8.6 8.6 8.9 11.1 14.5 17.3 17.9  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.9 12.6 14.8 15.3  
CEDAR RAPIDS 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.8 12.7 16.3 17.2  
CEDAR BLUFF 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.5 16.7 20.0 21.0  
CONESVILLE 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 14.5 15.8 16.3  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 14.0 14.1 14.2 15.4 18.0 19.4 19.9  
IOWA CITY 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.4 17.0 20.4 23.1  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 10.1 10.2 10.3 12.8 16.6 19.2 20.5  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
LONE TREE 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.1 15.1 17.9 20.0  
COLUMBUS JCT 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 24.7  
WAPELLO 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.9 23.4 25.0  
OAKVILLE 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.8 13.0 14.5  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 14.2 14.3 14.5 16.4 19.3 22.7 26.9  
ST FRANCISVILLE 12.2 12.2 12.5 14.4 18.4 21.8 24.4  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 4.9 4.9 5.7 9.2 15.8 19.2 21.0  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 8.0 8.0 8.3 11.1 13.5 15.9 16.5  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 5.5 5.5 5.8 7.1 10.3 14.3 15.6  
JOSLIN 7.9 7.9 8.2 9.8 12.8 16.2 19.0  
MOLINE 9.2 9.3 9.4 10.4 12.3 14.7 17.1  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 5.1 5.1 5.5 7.9 11.8 15.1 16.6  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 5.7 5.7 7.4 17.2 22.0 24.4 25.6  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW, THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NON-EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/29/2020 - 09/27/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
DUBUQUE LD11 5.7 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.2  
DUBUQUE 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3  
BELLEVUE LD12 5.8 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.6  
FULTON LD13 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3  
CAMANCHE 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.8  
LE CLAIRE LD14 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4  
ROCK ISLAND LD15 6.3 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0  
ILL. CITY LD16 5.0 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3  
MUSCATINE 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 5.8  
NEW BOSTON LD17 5.7 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2  
KEITHSBURG 7.5 6.7 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4  
GLADSTONE LD18 3.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9  
BURLINGTON 9.1 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5  
KEOKUK LD19 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 2.3 2.2  
GREGORY LANDING 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2  
 
:MAQUOKETA RIVER  
MANCHESTER HWY 20 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2  
MAQUOKETA 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.6  
 
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER  
INDEPENDENCE 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7  
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5  
DE WITT 4S 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0  
 
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER  
SIGOURNEY 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8  
 
:SKUNK RIVER  
AUGUSTA 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6  
 
:CEDAR RIVER  
VINTON 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3  
PALO BLAIRS FERRY 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6  
CEDAR RAPIDS 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7  
CEDAR BLUFF 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3  
CONESVILLE 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
MARENGO 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7  
IOWA CITY 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.7  
 
:ENGLISH RIVER  
KALONA 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7  
 
:IOWA RIVER  
LONE TREE 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9  
COLUMBUS JCT 11.6 10.7 10.1 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.0  
WAPELLO 13.7 12.3 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.5 10.3  
OAKVILLE 4.6 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.8  
 
:DES MOINES RIVER  
KEOSAUQUA 11.2 10.8 10.1 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6  
ST FRANCISVILLE 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2  
 
:FOX RIVER  
WAYLAND 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1  
 
:PECATONICA RIVER  
FREEPORT 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.5  
 
:ROCK RIVER  
COMO 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1  
JOSLIN 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6  
MOLINE 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8  
 
:GREEN RIVER  
GENESEO 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5  
 
:LA MOINE RIVER  
COLMAR 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA, INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER, AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DVN FOR MORE WEATHER AND  
WATER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF NEXT MONTH.  
 

 
 
MCCLURE  
 
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