191  
FXUS63 KDVN 301118  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
618 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLY TWO STORM COMPLEXES WILL IMPACT THE  
AREA DURING THE DAY. EACH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE  
LOW END SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  
 
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN THROUGH  
TONIGHT. EACH ROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES  
OF RAIN. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE  
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
THE FIRST OF TWO STORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST  
QUADRANT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH THE HIGH PWATS, BRIEF  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.  
 
THE OVERALL CONCERN WILL BE THE SECOND STORM COMPLEX THAT IS  
CURRENTLY WEST OF I-35. THIS COMPLEX WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS (A NORMAL CONVECTIVE MINIMA) AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT THE MORE  
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF IT, PER THE VERY SHORT TERM MODELS, SUGGESTS  
IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOW END SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  
 
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STORM COMPLEXES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN. IF ONE VERY SHORT TERM MODEL IS  
CORRECT THEN A THIRD STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
BOUNDARIES PUT OUT BY BOTH COMPLEXES WILL THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR  
ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
A CONCERN IS THE RECENT WET PATTERN THE AREA HAS BEEN IN. OVER THE  
PAST WEEK MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE SEEN 50-75  
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OVER 300 PERCENT.  
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE ENTIRE AREA ON  
AVERAGE HAS SEEN 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK  
WITH LARGE AREAS IN EXCESS OF 500 PERCENT.  
 
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY AND MORE TONIGHT  
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, A FLOOD WATCH WILL  
BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
INDEED THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING AREAS OF 1 TO 2  
INCHES OF RAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE  
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MODEL SOLUTION SUGGESTING  
AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT.  
 
TONIGHT A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT STORMS COULD  
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. HOWEVER, STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS THAT  
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS COULD COME INTO PLAY AND RESULT  
IN AREAS OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
 
ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL  
OCCUR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH GETTING SHUNTED FARTHER  
SOUTHWEST, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE  
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM HIGH TEMP SPREADS  
ARE QUITE SMALL (2-4 DEG) WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN  
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS IS 10 DEGREES BELOW  
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. POPS REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH  
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
THE NEXT STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS STARTING  
AROUND 12Z/30 WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND BRIEF  
IFR CONDITIONS. VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A  
THIRD STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IOWA AFTER 18Z/30 THAT  
MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH MAY HAVE A FEW SEVERE  
STORMS. AFTER 00Z/31 A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN  
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. CIGS WILL BE  
COLLAPSING TO MVFR/IFR.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
 
NEW RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SKUNK  
RIVER AT SIGOURNEY AND THE ENGLISH RIVER AT KALONA. THERE ARE  
ALSO NEWS WATCHES FOR ALL SITES ON THE IOWA RIVER SOUTH OF  
COLUMBUS JUNCTION.  
 
HIGHER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON MANY AREA RIVERS BASED ON  
THE LATEST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST  
HAS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA,  
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE CURRENT  
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ON THE WAPSIPINICON,  
IOWA, CEDAR, SKUNK, AND ENGLISH RIVER BASINS. HAVE DECIDED NOT  
TO ISSUE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR SITES THAT GO ABOVE FLOOD  
STAGE BEYOND 48 HOURS IN CASE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS IN A  
DIFFERENT LOCATION.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-  
063>068-076>078-087-088.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ089-098-099.  
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ016>018-024>026-  
034-035.  
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...08  
LONG TERM...NWS  
AVIATION...08  
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS  
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