045   
FXUS63 KDVN 311852  
AFDDVN  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
152 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- COOL, CLOUDY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL START  
  OFF NOVEMBER ON A GLOOMY NOTE.  
  
- QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE   
  LONG TERM.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
  
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING IN MOST AREA (AFTER THE SMALL MID CLOUD PATCH   
MOVED EAST), COLD ADVECTION IS INCREASING AND WE'VE SEEN   
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE   
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES NEAR 50   
NORTHWEST, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. THE BALANCE OF THIS   
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY   
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. WHILE   
FAR FROM PLEASANT, THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL DAY AS AS WE   
TRANSITION INTO LATE FALL.   
  
LOOKING UPSTREAM, SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE   
LARGE UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SECOND AND MOST SIGNIFICANT   
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVING OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE   
THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THIS WAVE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED   
SPRINKLES / ISOLATE SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UNDER MORE EXTENSIVE   
CLOUDS TONIGHT, LOWS IN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SHOULD BE COMMON   
THROUGH OUT THE CWA.  WHILE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN CANNOT BE RULED   
OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT SUGGESTS   
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AND UNABLE TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF   
INTENSITY NEEDED TO BRING ANY IMPACT AT GROUND LEVEL. ALSO, THE   
COOLEST AIR ALOFT NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY, WHEN OUR   
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODESTLY WARMING, THUS THE OVER ALL CHANCE OF   
SEEING ANY SNOW MIXED IN HAS LOWERED A BIT.   
  
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE COOL UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS   
COVER. SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE   
DAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT EXPERIENCE A WETTING SHOWER, THUS   
POPS REMAIN LOW (<30%). THANKFULLY, WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG   
SATURDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY WEATHER ELEMENT IN OUR FAVOR FOR   
BEING OUTSIDE.   
  
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OF IOWA, RESULTING IN   
DOWNWARD MOTION, AND CLEARING.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S   
ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.   
  
  
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND   
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED, BUT WINDS OF 15   
TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MUCH OF   
THE DAY.   
  
A BIG TRANSITION CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS FAST, ZONAL FLOW   
KEEPS ANY COLD INTRUSIONS AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR OUR AREA,   
THIS MEANS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER   
50S AND 60S, WHILE LOWS FALL TO THE 30S TO 40S. THE FAST ZONAL FLOW   
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE RETURN FROM BEING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE   
QUICKLY PASSING WARM/COLD FRONTS, THUS A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED,   
WITH LITTLE FOG POTENTIAL. WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE FAST   
TRANSITIONS, AS TYPICAL FOR LATE FALL.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 12Z   
EC DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS A MORE POTENT WAVE PASSING THROUGH BY LATE   
NEXT WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDER CHANCE.  THAT SAID,   
DESPITE HAVING A QPF SIGNAL SHOWING UP IN WPC GUIDANCE, THIS IS ONLY   
SUPPORTED BY 20-30% NBM POPS.   
  
  
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
  
AROUND 18Z TODAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND   
INCREASE TO 10 KTS, GUSTING TO 20KTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON   
AND EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME DOWN TO THE   
8-10KT RANGE WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT, AS COOLER   
AIR ARRIVES FROM MN, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WHICH   
THEN WILL BE AROUND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF LOWER   
CLOUDS MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
  
  
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SHORT TERM...ERVIN  
LONG TERM...ERVIN  
AVIATION...ERVIN  
 
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