061
FXUS63 KDVN 032348
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOW/MID 50S FAR SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A
STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT (FRIDAY NIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS IT PUSHES INTO A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS OUR WESTERN OUTLOOK AREA (WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S EARLY IN THE DAY). HOWEVER, SOME RAIN
IS LIKELY AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND HAVE 50-70%
CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE BUILD UP OF SBCAPE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND COULD RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 2 PM TO
7 PM, RIGHT NOW FAVORED FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. PER HREF SURFACE-
BASED CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS,
THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC'S MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5).
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, BUT SUNDAY, MUCH LIKE TODAY, APPEARS TO BE
SEASONALLY PLEASANT IN THE LOWER 70S.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER TROF WILL
BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
THIS SHOULD SWEEP ANOTHER DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED WARM ADVECTION BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH OUR AREA CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT, AND PROGRESSIVE BOUNDARY
SHOULD KEEP QPF TOTALS FROM BEING PROBLEMATIC, WITH MOST SPOTS
WELL UNDER 1 INCH IN THE NBM/WPC MEAN.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE
AREA FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE DETAILS IS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. STAY TUNED.
SEASONALLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY LATE WEEK, AS THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS
OVER THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SKC ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN A COUPLE OF ROUNDS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS AT MLI AND BRL. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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