715
FXUS63 KDVN 221727
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY TODAY, LASTING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK
- A FEW SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING CHANCES (20-40%) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
IN THE FORM OF RAIN, TO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO WAA INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
AND TEMPERATURES RISE, WE LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS WITH
DEEPER SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY NOT WARM AS MUCH, HOWEVER WE WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO MELTING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TOMORROW. A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING
CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUN BREAKS OUT AGAIN. AS FAR AS HIGHS GO TOMORROW, THERE
IS A WIDE RANGE IN POSSIBILITIES. THIS IS TIED TO THE CLOUD
COVER, IF IT CLEARS OUT SOONER THAN FORECAST WE COULD BE 3 TO 5
DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE BC MODELS ARE REALLY TRYING TO
GO WARMER. THIS IS DEFINITELY A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LATER
SHIFTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
BY SUNDAY, OUR PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN FULL SWING,
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL WARM TO THE 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH
BY MONDAY! THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 MB LEVEL
TEMPERATURES BOTH SHOW VALUES AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGREES C BY MONDAY
MORNING. THESE VALUES WOULD BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES AND THE SPC SOUNDING
DATABASE, SO IT WILL BE QUITE WARM FOR LATE FEBRUARY. ABOVE FREEZING
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE MELTING OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK, AND
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME BOUTS OF FOG FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, SO SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMTH WILL ONLY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
THROUGH FRIDAY.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT LOWER CONFIDENCE, AS A FEW SYSTEMS LOOK TO
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION, BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ACTUALLY A BIT MORE SPREAD OUT NOW IN
TERMS OF THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF QPF THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO,
WITH THE 22.00Z ECMWF PROGGING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE 22.00Z
GFS AND GEM AS THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM. LREF/NBM ENSEMBLES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (0.01" OR MORE) CHANCES REMAIN PRETTY
MUTED, WITH GENERALLY ONLY AROUND A 10-30% CHANCE AND PRECIP TYPE
BEING ALL RAIN. WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-40%) OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS A BROADER WAVE CROSSES OUR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE,
LEADING TO A HIGHER QPF SIGNAL. AGAIN, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE GUIDANCE FOR THE AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION, BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS ALL
RAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW NEAR THE END OF
THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE EVEN LESS LIKELY NOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO, WITH THE NBM EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE SNOW
(0.1" OR MORE) NOW LESS THAN 10% ACROSS THE AREA, SO IT LOOKS
VERY UNLIKELY TO SEE ANY FLAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE AND THE 12Z RAOB FROM DVN SHOWED ONLY
25 KTS OR SO ALOFT. LOWERED GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AT MOST SITES
BECAUSE OF THIS. OTHERWISE NO SIG WX IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...GIBBS
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