191
FXUS63 KDVN 301118
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLY TWO STORM COMPLEXES WILL IMPACT THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. EACH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOW END SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. EACH ROUND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN. DUE TO ALREADY WET GROUND, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS LATE
THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE FIRST OF TWO STORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH THE HIGH PWATS, BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
THE OVERALL CONCERN WILL BE THE SECOND STORM COMPLEX THAT IS
CURRENTLY WEST OF I-35. THIS COMPLEX WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS (A NORMAL CONVECTIVE MINIMA) AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BUT THE MORE
ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF IT, PER THE VERY SHORT TERM MODELS, SUGGESTS
IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOW END SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STORM COMPLEXES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN. IF ONE VERY SHORT TERM MODEL IS
CORRECT THEN A THIRD STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
BOUNDARIES PUT OUT BY BOTH COMPLEXES WILL THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A CONCERN IS THE RECENT WET PATTERN THE AREA HAS BEEN IN. OVER THE
PAST WEEK MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE SEEN 50-75
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OVER 300 PERCENT.
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE ENTIRE AREA ON
AVERAGE HAS SEEN 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK
WITH LARGE AREAS IN EXCESS OF 500 PERCENT.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY AND MORE TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, A FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
INDEED THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING AREAS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MODEL SOLUTION SUGGESTING
AREAS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT.
TONIGHT A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT STORMS COULD
REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS. HOWEVER, STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS THAT
ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS COULD COME INTO PLAY AND RESULT
IN AREAS OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH GETTING SHUNTED FARTHER
SOUTHWEST, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM HIGH TEMP SPREADS
ARE QUITE SMALL (2-4 DEG) WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS IS 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. POPS REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH
UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
THE NEXT STORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS STARTING
AROUND 12Z/30 WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS. VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
THIRD STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IOWA AFTER 18Z/30 THAT
MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH MAY HAVE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. AFTER 00Z/31 A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. CIGS WILL BE
COLLAPSING TO MVFR/IFR.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
NEW RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SKUNK
RIVER AT SIGOURNEY AND THE ENGLISH RIVER AT KALONA. THERE ARE
ALSO NEWS WATCHES FOR ALL SITES ON THE IOWA RIVER SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS JUNCTION.
HIGHER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON MANY AREA RIVERS BASED ON
THE LATEST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST RAINFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA,
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ON THE WAPSIPINICON,
IOWA, CEDAR, SKUNK, AND ENGLISH RIVER BASINS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO ISSUE RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR SITES THAT GO ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE BEYOND 48 HOURS IN CASE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS IN A
DIFFERENT LOCATION.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-
063>068-076>078-087-088.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ089-098-099.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ016>018-024>026-
034-035.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS
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