213  
FXUS63 KDVN 171956  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
256 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE (1032 MB) WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA AND WAS  
PROVIDING A SUNNY AND COOL DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING  
UP TO 25 MPH BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL IN THE SHORT TERM.  
 
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE  
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
THURSDAY: A DELIGHTFUL DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY, RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS  
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. MODELS SHOW THE  
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO BE ACROSS MN AND WI SO THE STRONGER WINDS  
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY SO ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VERY QUIET/BENIGN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL  
BE A COLD FROPA FRIDAY; WHICH WILL BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-  
30 POPS) TO THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING; ALBEIT LIGHT (ON THE  
ORDER OF ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH). A  
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SKIRTS OUR AREA TO THE NE ON SATURDAY, WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NW IL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND  
EARLY PM. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY IS DRY (WITH A  
CAPITAL D) AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY  
BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS, WITH SW WINDS FRI GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH  
AND NW WINDS SAT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. HIGHS FRI WILL BE  
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, SAT AND SUN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, MON MID  
50S TO NEAR 60, AND FINALLY TUE AND WED LOW-MID 50S. NORMAL HIGHS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE COLDEST  
NIGHT/MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHEN LOWS  
IN THE MID 20 TO LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNNY  
DAYS AND STARRY NIGHTS ARE AHEAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR  
WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON  
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY TOWARDS SUNSET. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS  
TONIGHT THEN SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON MOST RIVERS IN EASTERN IOWA  
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THIS MONTH ALLOWING RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL.  
 
CEDAR RIVER...  
 
CEDAR RAPIDS FELL BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE LEVEL THIS MORNING. RIVER  
LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.  
CONESVILLE IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
IOWA RIVER...  
 
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE IOWA RIVER CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY STEADY  
OR SLOWLY FALL. A SLIGHT RISE IS FORECAST AT OAKVILLE OVER THE  
NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS, BEFORE IT STARTS A SLOW FALL.  
 
CORALVILLE LAKE RESERVOIR...  
 
CORALVILLE LAKE RESERVOIR WAS AROUND 710.9 FEET AND HOLDING NEARLY  
STEADY. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 710.9 AND  
711.0 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY DROPPING.  
 
WAPSIPINICON RIVER...  
 
UPSTREAM FROM DEWITT, RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER,  
BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS  
NEAR DEWITT ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
PECATONICA AND ROCK RIVERS...  
 
BOTH RIVERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER, BACKWATER EFFECT FROM  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE RATE OF FALL ON THE  
ROCK RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF MOLINE.  
 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...  
 
ROUTED FLOW FROM UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING AT DUBUQUE  
AS WELL AS RENEWED RISES OR SLOWED RECESSIONS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.  
THESE RENEWED RISES/CRESTS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE FIRST CREST AND  
MAY JUST PROLONG THE FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HAASE  
SHORT TERM...HAASE  
LONG TERM...14  
AVIATION...HAASE  
HYDROLOGY...14  
 
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