856
FXUS63 KDVN 291136
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- COOL NIGHTS IN THE LOW-MID 30S THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK MAY RESULT IN SOME FROST, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
- PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE WAVE THAT BROUGHT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT PUSHES EAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE
THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER SCATTER OUT RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING,
LEAVING US WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. AS CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AND WE SEE SOME SURFACE HEATING, WE WILL START TO
SEE DECENT MIXING TO ABOUT 800 MB. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH OUR NORTHEAST. IF ANYONE HAS THE CHANCE TO SEE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IT WOULD BE NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH OUR NORTH
IN THE UPPER 50S AND SOUTH IN THE LOW 60S. WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON BREEZE, THE AIR MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE CHILL TO IT.
AS THE SUN SETS, WE WILL SEE WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TONIGHT, OWING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
BROAD TROF AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN, WE WILL SEE BOUTS OF ENERGY GYRATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW,
WHICH WILL BRING THROUGH BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW-END CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, KEEPING US UNDER COOL/DRY ADVECTION. THUS, WE
WILL BE FIGHTING FOR MOISTURE AS THESE PASS THROUGH. ALTHOUGH, THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH CHANCES STILL <20%. QPF WILL REMAIN <0.10"
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH EACH BOUT OF VORTICITY PASSING ALONG THE FLOW, WE CAN
EXPECT A COOL NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. THUS, THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR FROST IN OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE WILL SEE STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW WORK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL USHER IN
STRONGER WAVES, WHICH WILL START TO SHIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW EAST. BETTER LLVL RETURN FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERTATURES. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL START
TO SEE THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S RETURN. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THUS, WE WILL SEE SPORADIC
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20-40% POPS EACH DAY) THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE SEEM TO BE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS, LARGELY
BRINGING THROUGH BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD AND TO THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A GUSTS UP TO
26 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT
AND VARYING BETWEEN SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00 UTC WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER BUT REMAIN
ABOVE 4 KFT AFTER 00 UTC AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...COUSINS
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