374
FXUS63 KDVN 282321
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
521 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEEN BELOW ZERO WITH
THE COLDEST NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- THE DRY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
AND RANGE FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN FAR NORTHEAST
MISSOURI TO AS COLD AS 4 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR OR NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO
CLINTON TO STERLING ROCK FALLS LINE.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SETTING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. MODEL CONSENUS
WOULD PLACE THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING JUST TO THE OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO THE SOUTH, ADDED
FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THERE CONTINUES TO BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SO DECIDED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
WE WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
COLD ADVECTION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH NIGHTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS STRETCH AS WELL. THURSDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO GET QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE BREEZE WILL YIELD BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. WE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING US CLOSE TO
HEADLINE CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH. SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE, WE HAVE SEEN NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT, LIMITING WINDS CHILL VALUES TO 10 TO 19 BELOW ZERO
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THUS, CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW
REMAINS LOW ON THE NECESSITY OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
CHANGES.
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WE START TO SEE A BIT OF A CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
LEAD TO GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A COUPLE WAVES THAT WE HAVE OUR
EYES ON. THE FIRST WAVE IS SET TO COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH
THE NEXT COMING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THESE WAVES,
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA, INCREASING
MOISTURE. THUS, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH BOTH OF
THESE WAVES. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE FAVORS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW. ALTHOUGH, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. RATHER, JUST KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE DAYS FOR POTENTIAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS WAS MENTIONED, WE ARE GOING TO SEE
RETURN (SOUTHERLY) FLOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THUS, WE WILL
ALSO SEE WARM ADVECTION, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE
FAVORS MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING TEMPERATURES AT/ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT TEMPERATURE ARE FINALLY TRENDING TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AS
A REX BLOCK-LIKE FEATURE SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST. IF THIS
BLOCK WERE TO SET UP, WE WILL GENERALLY STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME, LEAVING US IN THE PATH OF POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z/29 ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER AND INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...08
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