087
FXUS63 KDVN 301818
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
118 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK CONTINUES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
A HIGH (>80%) PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED TODAY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL AGAIN BE SEEN IN SPITE OF HUMIDITY LEVELS
SLOWLY CLIMBING. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
TONIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING.
INITIALLY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BREAK OUT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL INITIATE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.
COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-35%) IN
NATURE WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BEING FAVORED. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST PROFILES
OF THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SO THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
THE BETTER SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE IN WISCONSIN WHICH IS WHERE SPC
HAS PLACED THE BULK OF THE NEW SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER, AREAS NORTH OF
I-80 DO HAVE A SEVERE RISK.
SINCE THE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED, HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK. IF
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE, THEN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF STORM ARE MORE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE, THEN THE SEVERE
HAIL WOULD BE MARGINAL BUT THERE WOULD BE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUB-
SEVERE HAIL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>90%) CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON STORMS
TUESDAY MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE ARE MODELS SUGGESTING A 15 TO
NEAR 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE FIRST TWO HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW LONG THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LASTS
INTO THE MORNING WILL DICTATE THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK FOR THE AREA.
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE FRONT TO ESSENTIALLY THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY
MID-DAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO
LAST THURSDAY. OTHER SOLUTIONS HAVE THE FRONT NORTH OF I-80 BY MID-
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED IS THE
POTENTIAL CAP IN PLACE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. SUCH A CAP
WOULD DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKING ALL THIS INTO CONSIDERATION, THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT PERSISTING INTO
LATE MORNING AND THEN ENDING. PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH. DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
BUT GROWS UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING.
IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO OCCURS, THEN THE SEVERE RISK WOULD BE MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WOULD BE 4-11 PM WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
BEING FAVORED FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WOULD
THEM PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOLLOWED
BY A WARM-UP. MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST TWO
ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCURRING.
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY IS WHERE DOES THE COLD FRONT STALL OUT. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT IT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE SOLUTIONS SHOW A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION. ABOUT 40% OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS STALL THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. THE OTHER 60% STALL THE FRONT OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MORE SOUTHERN STALL WOULD INCREASE THE PROSPECTS THAT MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN STALL WOULD
SUGGEST THE PROSPECTS OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
FROM THE LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THE GULF IS PROGGED TO BE WIDE OPEN
WITH A LLJ OF 35-40 KNOTS STREAMING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. UPGLIDE
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WOULD ALLOW ELEVATED SHOWERS TO OCCUR WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SO WHILE THERE IS A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THE
ACTUAL STALL WILL PROBABLY OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BUT FAVORING
THE NORTHERN STALL. AS SUCH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS AGREE THERE WILL
BE A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THE TRACK WILL BE IMPORTANT AS COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE INITIAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SUCH A TRACK WOULD ALLOW A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN LOW FOR THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN IOWA.
WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM IS THE STRENGTH OF THE VAPOR TRANSPORT. THE INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT HAS VALUES OVER 1000 KG PER METER SQUARED PER SECOND;
VALUES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. SUCH VALUES
CORRELATE NICELY WITH HEAVY RAIN. INDEED THE CONSENSUS QPF HAS 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH, GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO, HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (>70%) OF BEING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF INTERMISSION WITH THE RAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE GULF. HOWEVER THE IVT VALUES ARE ONLY 600-800
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE THIS
RAIN MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, IT HOLDS THE
PROSPECT OF BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA.
SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CANADIAN HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. THE RECENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TODAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN FROM
ALOFT. TONIGHT, A LLJ WILL LEAD TO INCREASED LLWS AND SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 03Z IS HIGHEST AT KCID, LEADING TO A TEMPO THERE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, LEADING TO
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDBQ, KMLI, AND
KBRL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MONDAY...
GFDI VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT DEEP MIXING WILL DROP HUMIDITY
LEVELS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE MARGINALLY LOW, THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE DRIED
VEGETATION COULD PUSH PARTS OF THE AREA TO BORDERLINE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVING ON TUESDAY WILL TEMPER THE DROP IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOWEVER, WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 30TH....
BURLINGTON.........84 IN 1986
CEDAR RAPIDS.......82 IN 1943
DUBUQUE............81 IN 1943
MOLINE.............82 IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 31ST....
BURLINGTON.........82 IN 1986
CEDAR RAPIDS.......81 IN 1986
DUBUQUE............79 IN 1986
MOLINE.............83 IN 1986
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...08
CLIMATE...08
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