017
FXUS63 KDVN 141141
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM A WINTER STORM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS CREATING BLOWING SNOW
AND NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT 5) AND SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
- COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MORNING RADAR MOSAICS SHOW SEVERAL ECHOES ACROSS IA AND WEST CENTRAL
IL, DUE TO INCREASE IN FGEN IN THE 700MB LAYER. HOWEVER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO REPORT ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND
THANKS IN PART TO A DRY 700-500MB RH LAYER AS SEEN ON OUR 00Z DVN
SOUNDING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AN FGEN BAND WILL MOVE ACROSS IA THIS MORNING, BUT WITH CEILINGS
STILL ABOVE 6KFT THE CURRENT THINKING IS WE WILL JUST SEE
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTH WHERE THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH SATURATION AROUND
BRL FOR PRECIP TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN ANY CASE, NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED DUE TO WARM GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPS. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS WE MIX TO
900MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 40S IN THE
HWY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S IN NORTHEAST MO. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
THIS WILL BRING RISING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM IS
NOW MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS STORM
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/WARM TEMPERATURES/THUNDERSTORMS
ON ITS WARM SIDE, TO HEAVY SNOW, VERY STRONG NW WINDS, AND NEAR
WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
NEW DATA THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WARM FRONT
PLACEMENT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE LOW TRACKING FROM WEST CENTRAL IA AT 12Z
SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENING TO 982 MB OVER SOUTHERN WI BY 00Z
MONDAY. THIS PUTS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
HAS RESULTED IN A WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID FORECAST FOR
THE CWA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. STRONG THETA-E AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY (PWS OVER 1"
AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 50S) COUPLED WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS ALL CHANGES WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. BUILDING
INSTABILITY/CAPE THROUGH THE DAY AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY IN
THE NOON TO 7PM TIMEFRAME. SPC HAS MAINTAINED ITS
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR THE CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE AREA
IN 5% WIND/HAIL ASIDE FROM PUTNAM/MCDONOUGH COUNTIES. ANY
SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 7PM
SUNDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STRENGTHENING CAA AND HOW QUICKLY
COLD AIR MOVES IN CHANGING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THIS
SHOULD OCCUR IN QUICK ORDER FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE 7-10PM
TIMEFRAME AS INTENSE FORCING IN THE TROWAL/DGZ ARRIVES.
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2" PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN DEFORMATION
ZONE QUICKLY OVERWHELMING THE WARM GROUND AND ACCUMULATING FAST
ON ALL SURFACES. LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE 00Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, I HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH. AMOUNTS OVER 4" ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OF 6-9" IN
THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SNOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONG NW WINDS. IN FACT, THE
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH ON THE REFS/NAM/00Z
HREF HAVE INCREASED RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
OUR IA/MO COUNTIES. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS AN EXPECTED 24MB
GRADIENT ACROSS IA AT THE PEAK OF THE WINDS SUPPORTING THESE
CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING WHILE SNOW IS FALLING
CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY
AT TIMES.
REGARDING HEADLINES, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING WITH
THIS ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IN ACHIEVING BLIZZARD CRITERIA
REMAINS JUST LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER LOOK BY THE DAY
SHIFT. WHILE YOU DO NOT NEED 6" OF SNOW TO ACHIEVE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS, THE 3+ HR DURATION OF <1/4 MI VSBY IS SOMETHING
THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. YOU ALSO DO NOT NEED SNOW ON THE GROUND
FOR A BLIZZARD AS SEEN BY THE JAN 29 2008 AND MARCH 9TH 2002
BLIZZARDS WHERE THERE WAS <1" SNOW DEPTH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE
OF A WARM-UP THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM (40-60%)
CONFIDENCE OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BUT A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. AFTER AN
INITIAL COLD START, A RAPID WARM-UP WILL BE SEEN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CREATING WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. OUTSIDE OF A DRY
WEEK, THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY GREAT,
THE PREVIOUS COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE FORCING LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AS FOR AMOUNTS, AN EDUCATED GUESS IS AN INCH OR LESS FOR THE AREA.
THE LOWER AMOUNTS WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I-80.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BAND IS JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE BRL TAF TERMINAL. OBSERVATIONS AND UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BRL WILL STAY OUT OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND MVFR CEILINGS, BUT WE WILL HINT AT THESE
CONDITIONS WITH A SCT015. WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BUT SEVERAL MODELS
SUGGEST GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MORE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE THAN LLWS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
ADDITION OF LLWS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, CEILINGS DO LOOK TO LOWER
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A PLETHORA OF
WEATHER IMPACTS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024.
MO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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