977
FXUS63 KDVN 310540
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ON WEDNESDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH TWO ADDITIONAL BUT WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR THAT MAY
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE VERY WARM GROUND AND
ROADS, ANY SNOW WILL MELT ON CONTACT.
QUIET, WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET NIGHT AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE ON A STORM SYSTEM. LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AFTER A QUIET TUESDAY MORNING THE NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE HIGHEST POPS (60-90%)
CONFINED TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS VARY REGARDING TIMING AND TRACK; THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND
FURTHER EAST, THE CMC GLOBAL AND ICON MODELS ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER
WEST AND THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN AND FURTHER NORTH.
REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL SOLUTION, THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS SIMILAR. A WAVE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL
DICTATE IF THERE IS A NOCTURNAL SEVERE RISK. AT THIS STAGE (3.5 TO 4
DAYS OUT), STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARM
FRONT STILL IN MISSOURI. THUS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK WOULD BE
MAINLY HAIL BUT A ROGUE SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN A CAREFUL EXAMINATION OF THE MODELS, ONE CAN INFER A WEAK LOW
ALONG THE WARM FRONT HELPING TO FORM A TRIPLE POINT THAT WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. HERE IS WHERE THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM BECOMES IMPORTANT. THE OVERALL LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MESOCALE PROCESSES
(LIKELY ON THE BETA AND GAMMA SCALES) THAT WILL DICTATE WHEN
AND WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE BETTER SEVERE SIGNAL IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA (OHIO
VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS) BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE
AND CSU PROBABILISTIC MACHINE LEARNING DATA. HOWEVER, THE INFERRED
TRIPLE POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW WOULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AGAIN, THIS
IS DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THUS THE
CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.
DIURNAL STORMS THAT INITIATE ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLEAR THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ONCE STORMS EXIT THE
AREA, THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST; THE FIRST ONE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA SO
THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR RAIN IS LOW (20-30%).
SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON DRY CONDITIONS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SECOND SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IFR REPORTED OVER OUR
NORTHEAST, WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY FILTERS IN AND SCOURS OUT THE STRATUS
LATER THIS MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD FROM THE WEST MONDAY, LEADING TO A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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