912
FXUS63 KDVN 172348
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, CURED/DRY VEGETATION, AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. AVOID ANY OUTDOOR BURNING!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40%) SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
(20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS; SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN STORMS.
- POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THURSDAY,
WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ROUND POSSIBLY HAVING AN
EARLY SEASON SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY IN ILLINOIS.
- AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES, POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW IMPACT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
TONIGHT: AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WITH 850MB WINDS UP TO 60+
KTS WILL ADVECT WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION LEADING TO
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOWER COVERAGE SCENARIO REGARDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
SHEAR, HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CORES THAT
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 50S TO UPPER
40S OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE STRONG S TO SW FLOW (25-30+ MPH),
WHICH IS 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!
WEDNESDAY: THE DRY SLOT OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUNCH THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY IN THE
DAY, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND NOTABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
20S/TEENS (AS AMBIENT TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE
AFTERNOON). THIS IS QUITE AN UNUSUAL SETUP FOR SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB OR HIGHER WHERE WINDS ARE 45+ KTS. THEREFORE PLENTY OF
MOMENTUM AVAILABLE FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD GUSTS 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE DAY, AND POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (45+ MPH) ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-80. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND HEADLINE FOR NOW AND LET
THE NEXT SHIFT RE- EVALUATE WITH PLENTY OF TIME STILL BEFORE THE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES (SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS). WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY WITH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY ON THE INCREASE AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES AND INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOWS WILL BE COOLER,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-80 ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH LIKELY STAYING IN THE
40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THURSDAY SHOWS THE LAST DAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WARMTH OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH, WITH A STRONG SHORT
WAVE PROTRUDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A DEEP SURFACE REFLECTION, WITH A
~992 MB LOW FORECAST OVER/NEAR SOUTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRIOR TO THIS, AN ARC OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ARE HINTED AT BY
LONG RANGE CAMS.
OF GREATER INTEREST WOULD BE ANY RENEWED DEVELOPMENT JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WHAT IS PROBABLE TO BE A TRIPLE
POINT/WARM FRONT. A NARROW AXIS OF DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ARE
FORECAST ALONG THIS, AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THAT COULD
SUPPORT BOUNDARY LAYER-ROOTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE END OF
CAM RUNS TEASE THAT WITH 20-40% COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
AND SUCH COVERAGE MAKES SENSE IN THIS SETUP. WHILE NOT THE
PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THERE CERTAINLY IS A
SCENARIO WHERE NOTHING DOES INITIATE DUE TO SUCH A NARROW LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS, THERE WOULD BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS WITH ANY MID-LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. SUPPORTING
THAT IDEA IS THAT THE FORECAST LOW-LEVEL PATTERN ACTUALLY
RESEMBLES THE FEBRUARY 27, 2024 SETUP QUITE CLOSELY, WHERE
THERE WERE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS IN A SIMILAR SETUP AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR (ALBEIT NOT EXACTLY ONE-FOR-ONE). COMBINING THAT WITH
OTHER ANALOG / PATTERN COMPARISON TOOLS ALSO HINTING AT SOME
LOWER-END CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK, SUPPORTS A MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE (RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5) WHICH SPC HAS DONE IN THEIR
DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL FOSTER THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A FEW HOURS OF SNOW WITH ANY WRAP-AROUND
OR DEFORMATION ZONE BRUSHING OF THE AREA. MARGINAL TEMPS AND
WARM GROUND WILL WORK TO NEGATE ANY ACCUMS, THUS MINIMAL IF ANY
IMPACTS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WINDS CONCURRENT TO ANY SNOW
HAVE INCREASING POTENTIAL TO BE GUSTING 30-40 MPH.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM CENTRAL
ILLINOIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING, MOST LIKELY
IMPACTING THE MLI AND DBQ TAF TERMINALS FOR A TIME. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AS
WELL, WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE (10-40%) FOR SHOWERS. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT, BUT SHOWERS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL AS A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A PERIOD OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FOR A BRIEF TIME WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, CLOUDS
WILL SCOUR OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR, BUT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE COMBINATION OF DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, DEAD/DORMANT VEGETATION, AND GUSTY
WSW WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER FROM THE MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
FORECAST GFDI PEAKS IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY TO THE SOUTH. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED AS ANY FIRES THAT START WOULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY, FEBRUARY 17TH
DUBUQUE, IA..........37 IN 2011
MOLINE, IL...........42 IN 2011 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 18TH
DUBUQUE, IA..........37 IN 1981
MOLINE, IL...........43 IN 1997
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-
098-099.
IL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...FRIEDLEIN/MCCLURE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH
CLIMATE...08
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