213
FXUS63 KDVN 171956
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
HIGH PRESSURE (1032 MB) WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN IA AND WAS
PROVIDING A SUNNY AND COOL DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
UP TO 25 MPH BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHILL TO THE AIR.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT: CLEAR AND CHILLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY: A DELIGHTFUL DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. MODELS SHOW THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT TO BE ACROSS MN AND WI SO THE STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN QUITE DRY SO ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
VERY QUIET/BENIGN EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL
BE A COLD FROPA FRIDAY; WHICH WILL BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-
30 POPS) TO THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING; ALBEIT LIGHT (ON THE
ORDER OF ONLY A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH). A
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM SKIRTS OUR AREA TO THE NE ON SATURDAY, WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NW IL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
EARLY PM. SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY IS DRY (WITH A
CAPITAL D) AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY
BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS, WITH SW WINDS FRI GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH
AND NW WINDS SAT POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. HIGHS FRI WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, SAT AND SUN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, MON MID
50S TO NEAR 60, AND FINALLY TUE AND WED LOW-MID 50S. NORMAL HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE COLDEST
NIGHT/MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHEN LOWS
IN THE MID 20 TO LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF SUNNY
DAYS AND STARRY NIGHTS ARE AHEAD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING RAPIDLY TOWARDS SUNSET. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
TONIGHT THEN SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON MOST RIVERS IN EASTERN IOWA
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MONTH ALLOWING RIVER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY FALL.
CEDAR RIVER...
CEDAR RAPIDS FELL BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE LEVEL THIS MORNING. RIVER
LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE STRETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
CONESVILLE IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ITS FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
IOWA RIVER...
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE IOWA RIVER CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL. A SLIGHT RISE IS FORECAST AT OAKVILLE OVER THE
NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS, BEFORE IT STARTS A SLOW FALL.
CORALVILLE LAKE RESERVOIR...
CORALVILLE LAKE RESERVOIR WAS AROUND 710.9 FEET AND HOLDING NEARLY
STEADY. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 710.9 AND
711.0 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN BEGIN SLOWLY DROPPING.
WAPSIPINICON RIVER...
UPSTREAM FROM DEWITT, RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER,
BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL KEEP RIVER LEVELS
NEAR DEWITT ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PECATONICA AND ROCK RIVERS...
BOTH RIVERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. HOWEVER, BACKWATER EFFECT FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE RATE OF FALL ON THE
ROCK RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF MOLINE.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
ROUTED FLOW FROM UPSTREAM WILL RESULT IN RENEWED FLOODING AT DUBUQUE
AS WELL AS RENEWED RISES OR SLOWED RECESSIONS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM.
THESE RENEWED RISES/CRESTS WILL BE LOWER THAN THE FIRST CREST AND
MAY JUST PROLONG THE FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...HAASE
HYDROLOGY...14
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