045  
FXUS63 KDVN 311852  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
152 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- COOL, CLOUDY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL START  
OFF NOVEMBER ON A GLOOMY NOTE.  
 
- QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
 
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING IN MOST AREA (AFTER THE SMALL MID CLOUD PATCH  
MOVED EAST), COLD ADVECTION IS INCREASING AND WE'VE SEEN  
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES NEAR 50  
NORTHWEST, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. THE BALANCE OF THIS  
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY  
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. WHILE  
FAR FROM PLEASANT, THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL DAY AS AS WE  
TRANSITION INTO LATE FALL.  
 
LOOKING UPSTREAM, SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE  
LARGE UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SECOND AND MOST SIGNIFICANT  
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVING OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE  
THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THIS WAVE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED  
SPRINKLES / ISOLATE SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UNDER MORE EXTENSIVE  
CLOUDS TONIGHT, LOWS IN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SHOULD BE COMMON  
THROUGH OUT THE CWA. WHILE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT SUGGESTS  
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AND UNABLE TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF  
INTENSITY NEEDED TO BRING ANY IMPACT AT GROUND LEVEL. ALSO, THE  
COOLEST AIR ALOFT NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY, WHEN OUR  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODESTLY WARMING, THUS THE OVER ALL CHANCE OF  
SEEING ANY SNOW MIXED IN HAS LOWERED A BIT.  
 
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE COOL UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS  
COVER. SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT EXPERIENCE A WETTING SHOWER, THUS  
POPS REMAIN LOW (<30%). THANKFULLY, WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG  
SATURDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY WEATHER ELEMENT IN OUR FAVOR FOR  
BEING OUTSIDE.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OF IOWA, RESULTING IN  
DOWNWARD MOTION, AND CLEARING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S  
ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
 
SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED, BUT WINDS OF 15  
TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MUCH OF  
THE DAY.  
 
A BIG TRANSITION CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS FAST, ZONAL FLOW  
KEEPS ANY COLD INTRUSIONS AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR OUR AREA,  
THIS MEANS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER  
50S AND 60S, WHILE LOWS FALL TO THE 30S TO 40S. THE FAST ZONAL FLOW  
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE RETURN FROM BEING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE  
QUICKLY PASSING WARM/COLD FRONTS, THUS A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED,  
WITH LITTLE FOG POTENTIAL. WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE FAST  
TRANSITIONS, AS TYPICAL FOR LATE FALL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 12Z  
EC DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS A MORE POTENT WAVE PASSING THROUGH BY LATE  
NEXT WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDER CHANCE. THAT SAID,  
DESPITE HAVING A QPF SIGNAL SHOWING UP IN WPC GUIDANCE, THIS IS ONLY  
SUPPORTED BY 20-30% NBM POPS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025  
 
AROUND 18Z TODAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND  
INCREASE TO 10 KTS, GUSTING TO 20KTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME DOWN TO THE  
8-10KT RANGE WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT, AS COOLER  
AIR ARRIVES FROM MN, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WHICH  
THEN WILL BE AROUND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF LOWER  
CLOUDS MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ERVIN  
LONG TERM...ERVIN  
AVIATION...ERVIN  
 
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