045
FXUS63 KDVN 311852
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
152 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL, CLOUDY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL START
OFF NOVEMBER ON A GLOOMY NOTE.
- QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AFTER A SUNNY MORNING IN MOST AREA (AFTER THE SMALL MID CLOUD PATCH
MOVED EAST), COLD ADVECTION IS INCREASING AND WE'VE SEEN
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES NEAR 50
NORTHWEST, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. THE BALANCE OF THIS
HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. WHILE
FAR FROM PLEASANT, THIS IS NOT AN UNUSUAL DAY AS AS WE
TRANSITION INTO LATE FALL.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER TROF TO OUR NORTH, AND THE SECOND AND MOST SIGNIFICANT
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVING OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THIS WAVE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SPRINKLES / ISOLATE SHOWERS TO THE REGION. UNDER MORE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS TONIGHT, LOWS IN IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SHOULD BE COMMON
THROUGH OUT THE CWA. WHILE A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT SUGGESTS
MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AND UNABLE TO PRODUCE ANY KIND OF
INTENSITY NEEDED TO BRING ANY IMPACT AT GROUND LEVEL. ALSO, THE
COOLEST AIR ALOFT NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY, WHEN OUR
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MODESTLY WARMING, THUS THE OVER ALL CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SNOW MIXED IN HAS LOWERED A BIT.
SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE COOL UNDER THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
COVER. SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT EXPERIENCE A WETTING SHOWER, THUS
POPS REMAIN LOW (<30%). THANKFULLY, WINDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG
SATURDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY WEATHER ELEMENT IN OUR FAVOR FOR
BEING OUTSIDE.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OF IOWA, RESULTING IN
DOWNWARD MOTION, AND CLEARING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED, BUT WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MUCH OF
THE DAY.
A BIG TRANSITION CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS FAST, ZONAL FLOW
KEEPS ANY COLD INTRUSIONS AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR OUR AREA,
THIS MEANS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S, WHILE LOWS FALL TO THE 30S TO 40S. THE FAST ZONAL FLOW
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE RETURN FROM BEING ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE
QUICKLY PASSING WARM/COLD FRONTS, THUS A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED,
WITH LITTLE FOG POTENTIAL. WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE FAST
TRANSITIONS, AS TYPICAL FOR LATE FALL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 12Z
EC DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS A MORE POTENT WAVE PASSING THROUGH BY LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN / THUNDER CHANCE. THAT SAID,
DESPITE HAVING A QPF SIGNAL SHOWING UP IN WPC GUIDANCE, THIS IS ONLY
SUPPORTED BY 20-30% NBM POPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AROUND 18Z TODAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 10 KTS, GUSTING TO 20KTS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME DOWN TO THE
8-10KT RANGE WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT, AS COOLER
AIR ARRIVES FROM MN, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WHICH
THEN WILL BE AROUND MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS MAY EXTEND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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