856
FXUS63 KDVN 101103
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE REMAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS AFTER 4 PM TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN
CWA FOR LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2" AND TORNADOES WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, TRANSITIONING TO A WIND THREAT LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
- THE FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK MOVE MAINLY OUT OF OUR AREA, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS
TONIGHT MAINLY ON THE IL SIDE.
- TURNING COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SEVERE THREAT...SEVERAL CAM/DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND PLETHORA
OF SOLUTIONS, BOUNDARY/LLVL THERMAL GYRATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN JUST
MAKE FOR CONFUSION AND WONDER, BUT WILL USE ENSEMBLE BLENDS AND
ASSOCIATED CONCEPTIONAL IDEAS TO TRY AND HAMMER OUT A GENERAL IDEA.
LOOKING AT CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS, THE SFC LOW CULPRIT IS CURRENTLY
OUT IN WEST CENTRAL KS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED QUASI-STAIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED NORTHEASTWARD FROM IT FROM SOUTHWEST IA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
ATTM. HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG THE LIGHT
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THIS FEATURE FOR THE SUNRISE PERIOD THIS
MORNING. BROAD DIGGING UPSTREAM UPPER WAVE ENERGY ACRS THE
PLAINS(AND ESPECIALLY AN EMBEDDED MID AND UPPER JET MAX) WILL HELP
THIS WEAK WAVE PROPAGATE ALONG TIGHTENING LLVL BAROCLINICITY TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN DVN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LK MI BY WED MORNING. SEVERAL MODELS EVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
THIS 1000+ MB SFC LOW AS IT TRAVERSES SOMEWHERE ACRS THE LOCAL FCST
AREA. THIS PATH AND THE GENERAL LLVL BOUNDARY IT IS RIPPLING ALONG
IS VITAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT.
AGAIN GOING BACK TO AN ENSEMBLE IDEA, AM FAVORING A SFC LOW PATH
FROM NEAR FAIRFIELD IA AT 00Z WED, TO SOUTHEAST OF MUSCATINE
IA/ALEDO IL LOCATION AT 03-05Z, AND TO SOUTH OF PRINCETON IL AT 06-
07Z OR SO. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LLVL CAPPING/EML/CIN VALUES
RIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT IF THE ACCEPTED LOW TO MID 60 SFC
DPTS WRAPPING INTO THE WARM SECTOR IN VIEW OF THE LOW PRESSURE ARE
VALID AND AMBIENT HEATING CAN PRODUCE MLCAPES 0F 1000-3000 J/KG
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, A FEW BUOYANT BUBBLES UTILIZING
STRONG SHEAR MAY BREAK FREE TO CONVECT. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE VERY HIGH, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-60 KTS, AND CLOSE TO
THE BOUNDARY AND THE TRIPLE POINT, FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3KM SRH'S
OF 500+ M2/S2 AND 0-1KM VALUES OF 390+ M2/S2! THIS WITH LCL'S UNDER
3K FT AGL SPELL TORNADO.
HAVE DEFINED A GENERAL ENSEMBLE BOUNDARY INITIATION JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LLVL WAVE FROM NEAR MT PLEASANT IA, TO ALEDO IL, AND
TO PRINCETON IL FROM 5-7 PM CDT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ELEVATED IN NATURE TAKING OFF NORTH OF I-80 IN EXTREME EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IA AT THE SAME TIME AS THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION
IGNITES, WHICH WOULD OF COURSE MAINLY BE A HAIL THREAT FOR THOSE
STORMS. ALOFT SOME NICE SUPPORT FROM A SOUTHWEST PLAINS SUB UPPER
JET STREAKING UP THIS WAY AND INDUCING SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE LIFT
EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE BOUNDARY AND WARM SECTOR STORMS
INITIATE AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GROWING UPSCALE QUICKLY WITH LARGE
HAIL(POSSIBLY TO GOLF BALL OR 2"), AND OF COURSE THE CELLS ON OR
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AN EVENTUAL TORNADO THREAT. BUNKER CELL MOVEMENT
PROGS STILL SUGGEST A NORTHEAST STORM SURGE MOVEMENT WHICH MAY LIMIT
RESIDENCE TIME FOR A STORM ON THE FRONT, BUT ANY BOUNDARY-RIDER
RIGHT TURNER MAY HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE A RATHER STRONG TORNADO
OF EF2+ STRENGTH. THE PRIME TORNADO CORRIDOR MAY BE FROM ALEDO IN
MERCER CO IL, TO SOUTHERN HENRY CO IL AND OVER TO SOUTHEAST OF
PRINCETON IL, "IF" THE PRIME BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IDEA IS NEAR
CORRECT. AS I TYPE THIS, SOME CAMS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH AGAIN
OF THIS AXIS, BUT WILL SIDE WITH EAST-NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WITH
COOLING LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT TO BATTLE THE WARM FRONT RETREAT AND
KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEAKNESS OF THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AND
UPPER TROF MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. RFD'S AND
FFD'S MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE UNTIL THE CELLS MORPH MORE
INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS AS THEY EXIT OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 3 OR
4Z.
RAINFALL...STILL SOME SWATHS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT GET REPEATED ACTIVITY OR SOME TRAINING(MAINLY ON THE IL
SIDE) IF THE 1 T 1.2" PWAT FEED IS CORRECT, BUT THE OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND WILL NOT HOIST A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES...HUGE CRAP SHOOT AND LARGE TEMP BUST POTENTIAL FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY MIGRATION AND UNDULATION. CLOUD
COVER IN SPOTS MAY ALSO BE A LIMITER, ESPECIALLY POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU NORTH OF I-80. WE MAY HAVE A VERY TIGHT TEMP/THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH WITH MID 50S IN THE FAR NORTH/HWY 20,
TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN THE MIDDLE IS WHERE THERE COULD BE
HUGE DESCREPANCIES FROM GUIDANCE AND HAVE JUST TRIED TO HAMMER OUT A
50% BLEND OF THE POTENTIAL TEMPS ALONG I-80. RECORD HIGH AT
BURLINGTON?
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
QUICK LOOK AT LONGER RANGE. WEDNESDAY...A BLUSTERY RAW DAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND A COLD POST-FRONTAL RAIN REGIME, POSSIBLY
MIXING OR CHANGING OVER TO WET SNOW ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BEFORE
EXITING OUT OF THE AREA WED EVENING. MID CONUS STEERING PATTERN
CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LOOK TO USHER DOWN A CLIPPER INTO THE
GRT LKS, POSSIBLY BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA THU NIGHT. DAILY
UP AND DOWN TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR PHASING TRENDS OF A STRONGER CLIPPER THAT COULD TRANSLATE INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE VCNTY OF A BOUNDARY WAVERING
GENERALLY ALONG FROM NORTHWEST IL, TO THE SIGOURNEY IA AREA. A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF THE MLI
SITE. OTHERWISE A VFR TAF CYCLE THIS MORNING UNTIL POST-
FRONTAL MVFR STRATOCU ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. THE OTHER BIG FACTOR WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCTRD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE SAME BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE THE MLI AND BRL SITES FROM AFTER 4 PM
THROUGH 10 PM OR SO. DBQ AND MAYBE CID NORTH OF THE FRONT WOULD
BE SUSPECT TO ISOLATED STORMS MORE CAPABLE OF HAIL, AND CID MAY
BE WEST OF ALL THE ACTIVITY AND MISS OUT. INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS TO 10+ KTS NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80 WILL BRING IN LOWER MVFR STRATOCU ACRS THE AREAS TO
THE NORTH, AND LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. BACK TO THE WINDS,
FROM NOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE VARIABLE
AROUND THE WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD GENERALLY LAY
OUT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
GATHER STEAM AT CID, DBQ, AND EVENTUALLY MLI AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:
MARCH 10: KBRL: 76 IN 1955 KMLI: 74 IN 1955
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...12
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