063
FXUS63 KDVN 220752
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
252 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TODAY
WITH SOME SHOWERS.
- PATTERN BREAK COULD MEAN A DRIER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALMOST OVERHEAD WILL LOOK
TO DRIFT TOWARD NORTHERN IN THROUGH WED MORNING BECOMING PART OF A
GRT LKS REX BLOCK. AS IT DOES, IT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY LOCALLY AND PROBABLY MOST OF TONIGHT NOW, LOOKING AT MOISTURE
LAYER TRENDS. SCTRD SHOWER REGIME WILL ALSO CONTINUE, BUT MAYBE LOOK
TO WANE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE CAMS, BUT
WONDER IF THEY ARE TRYING TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN A BIT QUICK. SOME
VERY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING OVER A HALF INCH, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 10-
15 MPH TO MAINTAIN WITH DIURNAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH, AND HIGH TEMPS
AGAIN HELD IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON OR TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW INVERSION AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH, AM LESS CONCERNED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
BUT STILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN CASE OF SUDDEN CLEAR OUT WITH SFC WIND
DECOUPLE. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S DOWN INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WEDNESDAY... A BLOCKED RATHER MESSY UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH BOTH UPPER AND SFC RIDGING OFF
THAT COMPLEX TAKING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR WED, BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE SLOSHING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACRS THE DVN CWA IN EASTERLY LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW UNDER H75 MB INVERSION. THUS THERE MAY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY, AND A FEW
SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT ISOLATED DIURNAL LIGHT SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW BUT INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
LOADED BLEND. IF THE CLOUDS MATERIALIZE, THE LOADED MID TO HIGH 60S
FOR HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LATEST ENSEMBLES AND UPPER JET TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME UPPER WAVE/TROF ENERGY TO TRY AND
UNDERCUT MID CONUS OMEGA BLOC AND SPILL SOME SHOWERS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. WILL BANK ON UPPER RIDGE
AXIS HAVING IT'S PRECIP CORROSIVE EFFECT AND ERODE IT BEFORE IT
GET'S INTO THE AREA, BUT WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH AT LEAST SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAKING FOR NOT THE MOST
SUNNIEST OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPS MAY GAIN BE HINDERED SOME BY THIS FROM
THEIR POTENTAIL OF UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. UPPER TROF BATTLE WITH
ONGOING OMEGA BLOC RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MO RVR VALLEY FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN WILL BANK ON THE RIDGE PLACEMENT
INDICATED BY THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES TO KEEP THIS ACTION
AT BAY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOME SIGNS IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE
OMEGA RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE UPPER TROF TO SWEEP IN
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT
IF EVEN IN A DECAYING FASHION. BUT AGAIN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPS DOWN SATURDAY, BEFORE RE-AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS
FOR DRYING AND REBOUNDING THICKNESSES FOR A WARM UP TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
UPPER LOW SPIRALING OVERHEAD CONTINUE TO GENERATE MVFR TO LOW
VFR CIGS ACRS THE AREA, AS WELL AS SCTRD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE AND MVFR FOG WHERE CIGS ARE LOW
ENOUGH INTO TUE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT OFF TO THE EATS PRODUCING A GENERAL DECLINE IN SPOTTY
PRECIP AS TUE PROGRESSES, BUT THEY MIGHT NOT MOVE OFF AS FAST
AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THEY WILL. IF CLOUDS HANG ON TUE NIGHT
LONGER THAN EXPECTED, HOPEFULLY THEY WILL BE MAINLY AT VFR
LEVELS. SFC WINDS SHOWING LITTLE VARIANCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS WITH DIURNAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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