332
FXUS63 KDVN 252303
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
603 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WEAK WAVE EJECTS OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IOWA AS A RESULT. WITH THIS OVERHEAD, WE WILL START TO SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND WINDS SHIFTING EASTERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS LOW, FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. TONIGHT, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S. TOMORROW WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LLVL EASTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, SPAWNING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A JET STREAK IN THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN THIS NEW LOW AS IT TREKS INTO
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO IOWA, BUT SIMILAR TO TODAY, IT WILL STALL
OUT ACROSS THE STATE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20-40% FOR AREAS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHER CHANCES (60-80%) FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SIGOURNEY TO DUBUQUE IA. ANY ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE
LIGHT AND <0.25".
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SENSE OF DEJU VU SETS IN ON FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY SATURDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY LEFT
ACROSS IOWA IS LIFTED NORTHWARD, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN GOING INTO THE FIRST
DAYS OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A CONTINUATION OF VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (5-10 KTS)
OUT OF THE NORTH-NOTHEAST AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR
MONDAY. A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE EARLY/MID MORNING ON
MONDAY AT DBQ WITH CEILING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2500-5000FT AGL, BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT
(NBM HAS 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR DBQ).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...UTTECH
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