610
FXUS63 KDVN 251055
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AS VISIBILITY HAS
INCREASED CONSISTENTLY ABOVE 3/4 MILE, AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
1 1/2 TO 3 MILES. NORTHEAST HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION, HOWEVER, WE'RE STILL VERY MOIST, AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GENERALLY NO FOG PROBLEMS, HOWEVER TONIGHT, WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL LIFT IN THIS MOIST LAYER JUST OFF THE GROUND, WE'LL SEE
MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG/DENSE FOG. FOR NOW, EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 MPH THROUGH 10 PM, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AFTERWARDS. THUS, THE LATER PERIODS TONIGHT ARE MOST PRONE TO
THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS OF LATE
EVENING ON CHRISTMAS EVE. LIKE KIDS WAITING UP ALL NIGHT FOR
SANTA, WE'VE BEEN PATIENTLY ANTICIPATING THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 2 AM, NORTH WINDS ARE
BLOWING, BUT STILL GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS (EXCEPT DBQ AT
14KTS!), AND ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO MIX OUT THE FOG. HOWEVER,
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/INCREASE
IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS SET TO SPREAD IN BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY,
RESULTING IN MIXING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION, AND
INCREASING VISIBILITIES. THIS IS MOST CONFIDENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES, WITH WESTERN AREAS POTENTIALLY NOT SEEING THIS
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL MID MORNING. AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE, WE'LL
CLEAR OUT COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY, AND SHOULD THE WEST REMAIN
SOCKED IN, EXTEND THAT TOWARDS THE 5-6 AM TIME FRAME.
TODAY, ONCE THE FOG BREAKS UP, WE'RE STILL GOING TO BE DEALING WITH
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. NBM HIGHS TODAY ARE
QUITE MILD, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS, I'VE KNOCKED THAT BACK JUST A BIT, BUT STILL
EXPECT A VERY MILD, ALBEIT GLOOMY CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY AFTERNOON TODAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BRINGING
LIFT TO OUR AREA, RESULTING IN THE STRATUS DECK PRODUCING MORE
DRIZZLE. INITIALLY, THIS SHOULD BE PATCHY, BUT BY EVENING, AS
STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES, AREAS OF DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY, QPF WILL BE VERY LOW,
GENERALLY T-0.05", BUT WETTING SURFACES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD, AND
I'VE GONE AHEAD WITH 50-75% POPS FOR THIS EVENT. WITH THE DRIZZLE,
THE LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPEAR RIPE
FOR FOG FORMATION, AND DENSE FOG IS AGAIN A GOOD BET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THIS MILD, AND DREARY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY. THE NBM HAS FOLLOWED OTHER
GUIDANCE IN SHOWING MORE A OF PASSING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY. THIS IS RESULTING IN A WETTER, CLOUDY, AND MILDER
FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. WHILE FOG POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT
THIS FAR OUT, IT'S THE SAME LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST THEN,
THAT'S HERE NOW, AND I'D EXPECT SIMILAR ISSUES WITH OVERNIGHT FOG
AND ANY AREAS OF CONVERGENCE DURING THE DAY AS WELL.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GREATLY INCREASED FROM EARLIER
FORECASTS GIVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION NOW PREFERRED. WHILE FAR FROM
CONFIDENT, THIS SLOWER LOW/COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY OFFERS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER, MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH, AS AN MUCAPE AXIS
NEARS OUR SOUTH, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR LOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY FURTHER SLOWING OF THE TIMING, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT INTO OUR AREA, BEFORE WE SEE STRONG CAA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW, OUR POPS DO SHOW RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS IT ENDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE
MOMENT, THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN IMPACTFUL TRANSITION.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO APPEAR RATHER COLD,
WITH A POTENT SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING,
ASSOCIATED WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -12 REACHING INTO OUR
CWA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR US, GIVEN OUR LACK OF SNOW COVER, WITH
THIS COLD WINDY PATTERN WOULD BE TO FREEZE OUR MUDDY LAWNS
AGAIN.
THIS COLD LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK, AND FIRST DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LOW IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY TODAY AS LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS TRANSITION HAS RECENTLY
HELPED DISSIPATE THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, BUT WITH VERY LOW
CIGS AROUND 100-600 FT, VISIBILITY MAY DIP UNDER 3 MILES AT
TIMES THIS MORNING, JUST DUE TO THE CLOUDS NEARING THE GROUND.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS TODAY,
RESULTING IN MORE CONSISTENTLY GOOD VISIBILITY DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR 1000 FT THROUGH THE DAY, AS A STRONG INVERSION IS TRAPPING
THIS MOISTURE NEAR GROUND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER PERIOD OF VLIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVED OVER OUR AREA. THIS
PERIODS WILL SEE BOTH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG
POSSIBILITIES, MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN THIS PAST NIGHT. DURING
THIS PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 03Z, THE EAST WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
LIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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