943
FXUS63 KDVN 221947
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. HEAT INDICES NEARING 100 OR MORE WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
AREAS IN OUR SOUTH SEEING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT, TRENDING SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY
ONWARD, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD. ENJOY
THE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A WEAK WAVE WILL EJECT OFF OF THE
ROCKIES AND TRACK TOWARDS THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW TO
ARRIVE, LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE DOESN'T MAKE
IT TO THE AREA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LARGELY DRY FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH, GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60%). MUCH OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN POPS, SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS THE EURO, BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR
THESE AREAS IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, WITH IT BEING AN OUTLIER TO THE REMAINDER. THUS, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY FAVORS UPWARDS TO 0.50" IN OUR FAR SOUTH, WITH
0.10-0.25" NORTHWARD TOWARDS HIGHWAY 34. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS
IS LOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME EITHER.
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT, RIDGING
SETS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN
ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE LOW LEVELS, LIMITING OUR COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AND CLIMB FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN A NEW LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY AND
INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA. COMBINING THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PEAK EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE
CROPS, DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY (60-80%) SOAR BACK INTO THE
MID-70S. CURRENT LREF GUIDANCE HAS 40-70% PROBABILITIES FOR
HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA,
NORTHERN IOWA, AND WISCONSIN, INCREASING POPS (10-20% COVERAGE) ALONG
A THIN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LESSEN
HEAT IMPACTS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST
OF THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA ADVECTS IN SOME
COOLER, DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON MONDAY (50-70% CHANCE) SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY AS DEW POINTS FALL
BACK INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S (50-80% CHANCE).
CONTINUAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT GRADUAL
RETROGRADING OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
ADDITIONAL TROUGH PASSAGES LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
BESIDES BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND BRL DUE TO A
SOUTHWARD MOVING STRATOCUMULUS DECK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SCT TO BKN
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH 4-7 KFT CEILINGS
AND DISSOLVE INTO THE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...DELAUNE
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