822
FXUS61 KILN 100620
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
220 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
2) SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.
A BIGGER WARM UP WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
COLD FRONT IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AT ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHED FURTHER IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SHORT WAVE COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING OUT A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK DURING THE MORNING. PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT AS THIS INITIATES, IT COULD START IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFF.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A ROBUST SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MID WEEK. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER DEEPENING WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE TROUGH DIGGING MORE TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER SPREAD IN THE 500 MB
HEIGHT FORECAST, BUT THAT MAY BE A RESULT OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
DEPTH AND TRACK. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THIS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH THE MID LEVEL FORCING TRENDING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAY DECREASE MARKEDLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. STILL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL SHOWERS TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BEFORE THE FRONT CLEAR THE AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THAT REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM A BIT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MODEST AND BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WILL
FOLLOW HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS WHAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
MID LEVEL TROUGHING IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA MOVES OUT, ALLOWING
BROAD RIDGING TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT,
BRIEFLY TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z RESULTING IN A
VFR CEILING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS ABOUT THE AREA, AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, UNTIL 15Z. PROBABILITY OF THAT AFFECTING A
TERMINAL AND RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS QUITE
LOW. IF THAT BECOME APPARENT, AS AT KDAY WITH THE INITIAL ISSUANCE,
THEN A SHORT AMENDMENT WILL BE ISSUED.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING HIGH BASED CUMULUS AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARDS 00Z. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN RETURN TO NORTHERLY ALL AT 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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