354
FXUS61 KILN 032333
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
733 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70). THESE POPS
ARE HIGHER THAN THE NBM WITH COLLABORATION OCCURRING BETWEEN
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES RESULTING IN THIS CHANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN INTO TOMORROW. WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS TO START THE HOLIDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMING THAN THIS MORNING, IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S BUT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, HEAT STRESS WILL BE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FROM THE HEAT WAVE LAST
MONTH. STILL, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CALM WINDS SUPPORT HOT
CONDITIONS.
ONCE AGAIN, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
ADDED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (NORTH OF I-70) IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
WITH THE REST OF THE AREA STAYING DRY, THE LAST THING TO MENTION IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FIREWORK SMOKE FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, SMOKE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S FOR THE EVENING
BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
DEWPOINTS FOR THE MOST PART BELOW 70 UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. SOME
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S. A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER 70 DEWPOINTS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK
HEATING, SO FOR NOW, NOT SEEING HIS AT 100. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN STARTING SUNDAY, MAKING WAY FOR A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. WITH INCREASE SURFACE MOISTURE AND
FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH, SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO REACH 100. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY BEGINS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE A FOCUS OF INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, COULD BE A BIT OF A LULL FOR AREAS NEAR/NORTH
OF I-70, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF THE RIVER CLOSER TO
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK, ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, WITH MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 60S FOR
LOWS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CAN'T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER AT DAY AND CMH/LCK TO START THE
PERIOD... HOWEVER WITH LOW COVERAGE AND QUICK LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
OPT TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD BE
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AT LUK; BUT WITH LACK OF FOG THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS HAVE BACKED OFF TO A SHORT TEMPO CONDITION TO START THE DAY
ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ070-071-077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...
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