450
FXUS61 KILN 090620
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ADD A KEY MESSAGE ABOUT
THE SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH AS
THEY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING.
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE TAIL END TRAILING BACK
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SOME DISCREPANCY WITHIN
THE MODEL SUITE WHETHER THAT MAKES IT ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT OR WHETHER IT LAGS INTO SUNDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
NEXT WEAK IMPULSE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL. YET
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST CREATING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE
MODEL SUITE WITH FAIRLY LOW SPREAD IN MID LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST
UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. SO RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL HEIGHT
FALLS. WHETHER MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE DEPARTING
SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. AT THIS STAGE,
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT BEST AND FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO, WHICH ALSO WHERE ANY WEAK SIGNAL IN AI SEVERE OUTLOOKS
IS PLACED.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH READINGS GETTING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. BUT AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE COOLEST
PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AS LOWER LEVELS GET MORE SATURATED HAS DECREASED. IT MAY EVEN NOT
OCCUR AT SOME LOCATIONS, BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY
TAKE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS. SIMILARLY, AFTER THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THE SIGNAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS HAS BECOME LESS
PRONOUNCED. SO ONLY A LOW CONFIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING, BUT FELT IT
BETTER TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS TAFS. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 18Z AREA WIDE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH TO MID
CLOUDS LATE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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