748
FXUS61 KILN 152318
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
718 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN INITIAL CHANCE OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MAIN STORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ILN/S AREA
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENCROACHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS ADJUSTED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH. THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH SOME OF THE CAM
SOLUTIONS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING INTO ILN/S NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ILN/S AREA
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
LOOK MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES - FROM THE FRONTAL
ZONE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
AND CLOUDS COULD ALTER THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AT THIS TIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S, SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES) ON BOTH DAYS.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS - THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY MARGINAL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH SUGGESTS A LACK OF
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SETUP BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE A THREAT WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
OFFERING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
IN THE WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
INCREASING WARMTH AND MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS LATE
TONIGHT, MOSTLY REMAINING NORTH OF DAY. HOWEVER, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY BASED ON THE CAMS, HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THAT TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO STAY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS
STILL A LOW-END POTENTIAL DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, WILL
KEEP THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...04
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