156
FXUS61 KILN 180205
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND WARMER
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SHORT WAVE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SHIELD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER
08Z. THIS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE RAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. AS CLOUDS
THICKEN WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, EXPECT READINGS TO STABILIZE
AND THEN SLOWLY RISE. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE RAIN COMMENCES. HOWEVER, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT
SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS COULD STILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS RAIN ARRIVES. THIS INITIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT, PROBABLY NOT EVEN MEASURABLE. IN
ADDITION, THE SCANT GUIDANCE WE HAVE AVAILABLE FOR ROAD TEMPERATURES
INDICATES THAT THE PAVEMENT SURFACE IN THAT AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. SO WHILE A VERY BRIEF CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
ADDED TO FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. BUT OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN FOR MOST OF THE ILN FA
WILL BE JUST A COLD RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME BRIEFING RA/SN MIXING TO EVOLVE FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE TEMPS IN CENTRAL OH, IN
PARTICULAR, WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FREEZING MARK AS THE LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, SO THIS IS THE GENERAL LOCATION THAT WILL BE
WATCHED THE CLOSEST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RA/SN MIX
OR EVEN IP/FZRA ON TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON FZRA POTENTIAL IS
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND MOST SOLUTIONS/FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD
A SFC/BL TEMP PROFILE THAT IS WARM ENOUGH TO YIELD PRIMARILY RAIN.
HOWEVER, CERTAINLY SOME BRIEF SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF, AND
ONLY IF, AIR/SFC TEMPS ARE NOT ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO
PCPN ONSET. CURRENTLY, HI-RES PROBABILITY FOR AIR TEMPS TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL OH (DELAWARE THROUGH PICKAWAY THROUGH
LICKING COUNTIES) BETWEEN 10Z-12Z ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%.
AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD MID-MORNING AND BEYOND TUESDAY, PTYPE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE (IF IT DIDN'T START THAT WAY),
WITH SOME STRONG LIFT/CONVERGENCE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF
STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN (AND ISO TS) POTENTIAL FROM SE IN THROUGH FAR
SRN OH INTO N KY WELL INTO THE EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PCPN
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR/N OF I-70 TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1" NEAR THE OH RVR (AND POINTS FURTHER S). THE
GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE EXTREMELY TIGHT (LIKELY
EVOLVING BETWEEN THE OH RVR AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR), BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR.
THE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION IS AT LEAST A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH TS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH FAR SRN PORTIONS
(ESPECIALLY NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR IN THE TRI-STATE) OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREDIBLY STRONG, BUT THE LL THERMO
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE AND INHIBIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY. THE SFC WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD EVEN INTO THE EVENING, WITH ANY INSTBY LOCALLY
STAYING ELEVATED AS THE BL STRUGGLES TO WARM AND THE WARM SECTOR
STRUGGLES TO EXPAND. SO WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TS AND SMALL
HAIL NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR, THE PROSPECT OF ANY OTHER SEVERE WEATHER
(STRONG WINDS OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY) ACROSS THE ILN FA REMAINS /VERY/
LOW.
REGARDLESS OF PTYPE EVOLUTION IN CENTRAL OH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IT
IS GOING TO BE A CHILLY, CLOUDY, RAINY DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH A RAPIDLY
MOISTENING LL PROFILE KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER/MID 40S IN THE S TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE N.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHTEST FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF EC IN AND WC OH,
WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL MAY ONLY BE AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES FOR THIS
EVENT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE UPPER S/W THAT EXITS TUE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AN EAST WIND TO MUCH OF
THE AREA, IN PARTICULAR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AT H8, MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH AND THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SPRINKLES BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CWA. NBM DID NOT SHOW THIS YESTERDAY
BUT APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON FOR TODAY'S FORECAST OF THIS PERIOD.
UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT TO A ZONAL WLY AND KEEPS THIS ORIENTATION
UNTIL 00Z SAT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP AT THIS LEVEL AS THE
MODELS DIFFER IN THE S/W ACTIVITY AROUND A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED
IN NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE INTERACTION OF S/W ACTION ROTATING
AROUND THIS WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS EVOLVES QUITE
DIFFERENTLY, ADDING A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN S/W ACTIVITY, PRECIP IN THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST CWA LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING,
ENDING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CANADIAN HAS A RIDGE BUILDING DURING THIS
TIME AND WHILE PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKELY, FORECAST LINGERS IT A BIT
LONGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SAT THAN I WOULD EXPECT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A STRATIFORM AND POTENTIALLY SOAKING RAINFALL, ENOUGH
UPWARD MOTION IN SOUTHERN CWA COULD INTRODUCE SOME DEEPER CONVECTION
AND PRODUCE SOME THUNDER.
CANADIAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A DIFFERENT L/W PATTERN GOING
FORWARD, AND FROM SAT NIGHT ONWARD. ALL THIS BEING SAID, DRY AND
COOL LOOKS TO BE THE RESULTANT SFC WX FOR THE PERIOD AFTER FRI/FRI
NIGHT PRECIP ENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. WE WILL THEN TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AGAIN
BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA, SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY WITH A PUSH OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND AN
AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER 08Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO CAUSE ANY
VISIBILITY ISSUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT IT WILL MOISTEN LOWER
LEVELS RESULTING IN CEILINGS FALLING. AT THIS STAGE, IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE AFTER 18Z BEFORE THEY LOWER TO MVFR. AND TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD THEY WILL FALL BELOW 2KFT WITH AREAS FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK LIKELY BECOMING IFR. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE BY THAT POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH LIFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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