733
FXUS61 KILN 191956
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
356 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXHIBITING LITTLE IF NO LIGHTNING. THIS PCPN IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS INDUCED
A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL JET. AM EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
POSSIBLE. THUS, THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY ACROSS
OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY, ONLY
ONE REPORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET TODAY. WITH
THE PCPN MOVING IN, LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS, ANY WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE PCPN, ESPECIALLY THE
FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWFA.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ENOUGH FOR A ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, BUT BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AS
LOWERING INSTABILITY SUCH THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOW
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP IN THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. CAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY
AFTERNOON, LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP INTO A CUMULUS DECK WITH
MORE HOLES DEVELOPING AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROGRESS. IT WILL
BE LOCALLY GUSTY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST.
IT WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
BUILDING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CUMULUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE AND/OR DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING,
BEING REPLACED BY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE THE SLIGHT NOSING OF THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN A POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ILN FA, WITH POTENTIALLY ONLY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOW 70S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF WHAT
ONCE WAS A COHESIVE AND WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
BUT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN A WEAKENING STATE AS THE SOURCE
IMPULSE/DISTURBANCE ESSENTIALLY BECOMES SHEARED-OUT AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM EASTERN TN
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN MI. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE NUDGING OF THE
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH JUST CHANCE POPS
DURING THE DAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
BY MIDWEEK, THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATES
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL YIELD AN INCREASINGLY LARGE, WARM, AND
HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SOME
OF THIS WARMTH WILL BUILD BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY (AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES EAST), WHICH
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTBY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO SPROUT SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT
OVERLY STRONG, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SEASONABLY
MODEST ISTBY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO CERTAINLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY -- AND THIS HAS BEEN, AND CONTINUES TO
BE, SUPPORTED BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATASETS AMONG
MULTIPLE SYNOPTIC-BASED MODELING SYSTEMS. THE POSITIONING OF THE
HIGH ITSELF WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
LOCALLY -- AS IT AT THE VERY LEAST APPEARS LIKE THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETUP DOES
LEND ITSELF TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE OHIO VALLEY)
OPPOSED TO GOING WITH A HOTTER/DRIER SOLUTION. AM LEANING RIGHT
NOW TOWARD DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BEING MAINTAINED WITH
THE OHIO VALLEY POSITIONED MORE SQUARELY ON THE FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THESE KINDS OF PATTERNS CAN BE DECEIVINGLY
ACTIVE FOR US HERE LOCALLY, DID NOT WANT TO JUMP TOO MUCH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY VERY WELL FEATURE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THE SPECIFICS OF WHICH MAY
NOT COME INTO BETTER FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE PROSPECT OF HAVING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PIVOT
ABOUT THE RIDGE AXIS AMIDST AN INHERENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME LATE IN THE WEEK.
WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD -- WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S/NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INDUCING A LOW LEVEL JET TO PUSH
NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT (MARGINAL)
AND HAVE BACKED OFF TO PREDOMINATE SHRA/-SHRA AND A VCTS/CB.
SOME LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
SHRINK/DECREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET WILL FORM
BEHIND THE FRONT.
ON MONDAY, OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE CAA PATTERN BEHIND THE
FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING
NORTHWEST. MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO A CUMULUS BASE BETWEEN
3500 AND 4500 FEET BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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