214
FXUS61 KILN 170954
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BLACK ICE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, SLICK SPOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AREAS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING THIS MORNING BUT WE ARE GETTING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF REPORTS OF BLACK ICE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THAT SNOW LIKELY MELTED BUT THEN
REFROZE ON UNTREATED ROADS.
WAS NOT SURE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION BUT DECIDED TO
ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR AREAS WHERE IT STILL LOOKED LIKE THEY COULD SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HANDLE THE REST OF OUR AREA WITH AN SPS ATTM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, WILL GO AHEAD AND HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO A BIT OF A BACK
EDGE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER
SO WILL TRIM BACK POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN THE MEANTIME, BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING, SLICK SPOTS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ON BRIDGES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS. FOR NOW PLAN TO HANDLE WITH AN
SPS, BUT IF THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING RUSH,
WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SHORT-FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WOULD
PRIMARILY AFFECT KCMH/KLCK WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING INTO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY FALLING TO IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ072-073-
078>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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