235
FXUS61 KILN 020601
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH A WEAK LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD INITIATE A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS TODAY
AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP, THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LATE IN WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH FROM THE MID SOUTH
INTO THE TN VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTH
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TO A POSITION ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE RATHER MARGINAL, BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A FEW MORE HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER
50S TO THE UPPER 50S.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A DEEP LOW TO DROP FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED PCPN STAYING
WEST OF THE AREA THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU THE TROF WILL INDUCE A WEAK WAVE TO
OUR SOUTH. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY
RESULT IN AN ISOLD SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR, WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THIS SURFACE LOW SOUTH THROUGH MICHIGAN, THEN SOUTHWEST
INTO INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE ILN CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A
SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA -- WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING AND POOR
EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION, CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY
APPEAR LIMITED, AND PERHAPS GREATER OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE ILN FORECAST AREA. REGARDLESS OF ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT, MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LIKELY TO GET A DECENT RAINFALL OF A
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER.
THE THURSDAY COLD FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOME
TIME FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RATHER SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER LOW. FORECAST CERTAINTY IS STILL NOT PERFECT REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY FRONT, AND ALSO ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF
THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST / NORTHEAST TO BRING
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. REGARDLESS, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED -- AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
FRIDAY -- WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES -- WILL LEAD TO
SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLY SOME ROOM FOR THIS TO INCREASE A
LITTLE, IF SOME OF THE STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY,
WITH A VERY SLIGHT REBOUND ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE.
AFTER THAT, AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BUILDS
EAST TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROF IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF A WEAK LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND A MORE FAVORABLE LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR FOG AT
KLUK VALLEY LOCATION EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, JUST EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ANY ISOLD
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE INVERTED TROF STAYING SOUTH
OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR
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