542
FXUS61 KILN 020503
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1203 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY, BUT
TRAVEL IMPACTS LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARRIVE UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OCCURRING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 5 AM THIS MORNING. A
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES STILL SEAMS ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. ISOLATED POCKETS OF OVER 4" ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-71 WHERE SNOW BANDING HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT. WIDESPREAD
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST THIS MORNING, DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY. FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
SO TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY LINGER A BIT LATER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DO HELP HIGHS GET ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW SINCE FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, SNOW RATIOS
COULD END UP BEING FAIRLY HIGH SO IMPACTS TO THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE COULD BE POSSIBLE. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTABLY, FORECAST LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE FORECAST GETS A BIT LESS PRECISE BY THE WEEKEND. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOP OR NOT.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP INTO THE IFR, AND
PERHAPS LIFR CATEGORY, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 1200Z,
IFR VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WHEN SNOW ENDS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES EAST. IFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON LATER INTO THE DAY BEFORE
SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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