943
FXUS61 KILN 111031
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
531 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW EARLY TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL FULL LATITUDE TROF TO CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS SET UP A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
WILL PIVOT ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE ADJUSTED NBM POPS HIGHER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. GENERALLY EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING
TO A HALF INCH PRIOR TO ENDING BY SUNRISE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DROP QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED IF IT
DOES PRECIPITATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY
EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE...SKIES
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES. ANY PCPN AND CLOUDS STAY NORTH OF ILN/S
AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TO OBSERVE INCREASING SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING SOME BUT STILL REMAINING 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS SET UP A BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THAT WILL PIVOT THRU CENTRAL OHIO AFFECTING
KCMH/KLCK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ENDING CLOSE TO
SUNRISE.
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL DROP QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOW SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. IF PCPN DOES FALL IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON AVIATION.
AS A 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WE CAN
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...EVENING CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT LEADING TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS 10-12 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 AT TIMES BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page