087
FXUS61 KILN 210614
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
214 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEWPOINTS/RHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND WITH DECENT MIXING, SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE GOOD MIXING, HAVE ALSO MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE. IN THE DEVELOPING WAA, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MARGINAL LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ045-054-055-063-
064-072-073-079>082-088.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ046-056-065-074.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ099-100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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