739
FXUS61 KILN 301151
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MADE SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2) SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A SIGNIFICANT/PROLONGED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF DANGEROUS EXTREME COLD.
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
HAVE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OUT FOR THE COLD THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL REACH HEADLINE LEVEL COLD, HOWEVER DUE TO
THIS BEING MORE ISOLATED, DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE HEADLINES FOR THIS
MORNING. ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HOWEVER FOR FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL APPROACH WARNING
CRITERIA, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A WARNING
AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SUB-ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SNOW.
A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SYSTEM AS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY DURING THIS TIME.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND LOCATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS, WENT CLOSER TO WPC FOR QPF WHICH LOWERS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. WAS HESITANT TO PUT WINTER STORM WARNING
CRITERIA SNOW IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE ONE TO THREE INCHES IN THE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE HWO QUITE YET
UNTIL MORE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE MOST AREA TAF SITES WILL STAY VFR THIS MORNING CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG WITH MORNING NEAR THE START OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO IN AT KILN AT THIS TIME.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG AS WELL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL MVFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME OF THE AREA TAF SITES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AND MVFR CIGS AT THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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