106
FXUS61 KILN 021045
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY, VALID UNTIL 9AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) COLDER WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS ENDING BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE WARM SECTOR RETURNS. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SOLAR
INSOLATION DURING THE DAY, WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AT
TIMES.
MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEKEND.
FIRST MAJOR IMPULSE LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
IMPULSE.
ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WIND FLOW TO THE POINT OF BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER, DRIER WEATHER STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR FROST MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS. IF WINDS CAN
DROP OFF ENOUGH, FROST WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE COLDEST MORNING
OF THE PERIOD ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND BURN OFF AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MAINTAINED IN THE TAFS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR FINE TUNING THE TIMING ALONG WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ075-080.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...
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