090
FXUS61 KILN 161233
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPDATE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVING INTO INDIANA. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE, SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAIN
REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED, THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
PREVIOUS...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
IMPULSE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BE IN CONJUNCTIONS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL STILL BE HIGH, BUT THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP. SO THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, BUT THE FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE MORE ISOLATED. IN
ADDITION, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY THERE COULD BE SOME MORE ROBUST
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WHICH WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO BE SLOW TO
MOVE ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS FRONT CLEARS.
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS MID
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BIGGER CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS TO
START THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT IT WILL BE VFR OUTSIDE OF AND STORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK..MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/35
AVIATION...35
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