620
FXUS61 KILN 070548
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
148 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
FAIRLY STABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. TAIL END OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A MODEST
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK EAST-WEST BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE A BIT MORE AMPLITUDE AND BE ABLE TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE THE MOST
PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY
LOOKS QUITE LIMITED, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WEAK FORCING ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP PRECIPITATION PRETTY SPOTTY.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WITH STRONGER FORCING THERE SHOULD BE GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THE MOMENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A MODEST WARM UP TO AROUND NORMAL FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
NORMAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. JUST A FEW LINGERING CUMULUS PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA TO START. AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AFTER 12Z WITH A FEW MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER THIS PASSES. A VFR
DECK WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE
DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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