682
FXUS61 KILN 201040
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
540 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH WINTER
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING MONDAY. AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE OH VLY TO PIVOT NORTHEAST WITH A
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION TODAY.
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KY OVER WEST VIRGINIA TO TRACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST.
THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST AND WILL END
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL
INCH POSSIBLE. HAVE ENDED ALL HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND ICE
EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE SNOW CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE
NE AND ARCTIC AIR SETTLING IN.
STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WHERE DAYTIME READINGS HAVE AN EARLY
HIGH NEAR 20 IN THE FAR SOUTH...READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS TODAY.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AS TEMPERATURE FALL
LATE IN THE DAY THE COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -10 BELOW NORTH
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE
COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER HAVE LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE AS COLD AS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES OHIO. LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELING TO THE GREAT LAKES, PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, SUGGESTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, A BROAD AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A LACK OF MAJOR SURFACE FEATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT
HEAVY PRECIP, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON A CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE 30S AND 40S. AS
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS PLUMMET AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXHIBITS A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, READINGS WILL PLUNGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PA TO CONTINUE TRACKING OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. FAVORABLE AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ081-082-
088.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ064-
065-073-074.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ099-100.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
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