941
FXUS61 KILN 252342
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
742 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL. A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 60 KT. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5.5 TO 6 C/KM, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CERTAINLY, MANY OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN MODEST IN
THEIR DEPICTION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, IF ROBUST
UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, THEN THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAIL. THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF
INSTABILITY AND HAIL WILL BE IN CENTRAL OHIO, SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IS RELATIVELY GREATER THERE. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
IN CENTRAL OHIO.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE SCOPE MAY NOT QUITE
BECOME ECHO FREE. INCREASING LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO
START TO BLOSSOM, PRIMARILY NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY, ON FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA WIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A MODEST WEST
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL ADVECT IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES. IN
ADDITION, WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL INCREASE TO 4 KM OR MORE ALLOWING FOR
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THUS HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY BUT NON-ZERO. THAT
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BE REALIZED
WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE, AND MAY EVEN INCREASE, ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUBTLER BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL ALL WIND DOWN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
PREDOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND. THIS WILL BRING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION.
PROBABILITY OF THE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDING 100 IS ONLY ABOUT 25 PERCENT
ON MONDAY ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE ON TUESDAY AND THEN PEAK AT 70 TO 80
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A 105 OR HIGHER HEAT
INDEX IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. SO THERE IS A PRETTY HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF A HEAT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK BUT VERY LOW THAT IT WILL
REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS
EVENING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY.
WITH INSTABILITY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT A LOW COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY (BOTH
IN LOCATION AND TIME), HAVE LEFT THIS POTENTIAL OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
LAMP CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT
ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO LIMIT THIS
UNTIL A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND INCREASING
DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE WAVE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...04
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