450
FXUS61 KILN 221050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS, MAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL
OHIO DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN ALLOWING A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 1.8 INCHES. THE WARM CLOUD
DEPTH WILL BE GREATER THAN 3.5 KM ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT WARM
RAIN PROCESSES. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED, ALTHOUGH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON UP TO AROUND
LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY. AN ARCHING WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT FROM THE
LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS
SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING THE
LOW.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH THE THEME OF A SWATH OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-71. MOST OF THAT ZONE WILL GET AT
LEAST ONE INCH WITH BOTH REFS AND HEFS INDICATING THAT NARROW STRIPES
OF UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY HEAVIER AXIS NEAR THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN OHIO IF CELLS CAN BECOME CONCENTRATED WHERE THE WARM
FRONT TAKES ON A MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IMMEDIATE
AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LESS THAN 30
PERCENT.
MOST OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF NEARBY SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN OHIO HAVE MOISTER SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS IT SEEMED
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THE WATCH
IS A BIT OF A QUESTION. HIGHLAND, ROSS, AND HOCKING COUNTIES HAVE NOT
HAD AS MUCH RECENT RAIN AND THUS DRIER SOIL. BUT THERE ARE SOME
FLASHIER AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES, SO THEY HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. THERE
WAS ALSO SOME CONSIDERATION OF EXTENDING THE WATCH INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
IF GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY
IMPACT THAT PART OF THE AREA, THEN AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.
WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE LIMITING INSTABILITY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW. THERE REMAINS A NARROW WINDOW LATE IN THE
DAY, WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED, WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES NEAR
THE WARM FRONT ARE CONCERNING, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ROTATING
STORMS IF ANY POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ARE MANIFESTED. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR ON SATURDAY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER,
ORGANIZED STORMS LOOKS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD,
EVENTUALLY FALLING TO IFR AREA WIDE. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS AFTER 14Z RESULTING IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, INITIALLY
MVFR BUT THEN DROPPING TO IFR AS WELL. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO LIFR
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER 00Z. ONCE THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL GET BACK IFR WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND ONLY SPOTTY LINGERING SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ073-074-
078>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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