638
FXUS61 KILN 060628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
228 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN WILL END EARLY, THEN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
LATER TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AT 06Z. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH DAYBREAK, HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN MAKING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA AROUND OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS, CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRING DURING THE
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES RETURN FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER/MID 40S SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FROST FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN OUR
EXTREME NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE
FORECAST. COOL BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY, HELPING TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER AND DRIER AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS ALLOWED FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND LOWER CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POINT TOWARD IFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
STEADY RAIN LIKELY MAKES IT TO THE DAYTON/CINCINNATI TERMINALS IN
THE 10Z-11Z TIME FRAME, THEN FURTHER EAST SHORTLY AFTER. AFTER THE
RAIN ENDS, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LINGERING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BUT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK AND THEN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH 10 TO 15
KNOTS TODAY, THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP
AVIATION...BPP
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