340
FXUS61 KILN 090725
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LIGHTS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN
TO START TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR STARTED TO RISE IN SOME AREAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THIS MORNING, BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRIMARILY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER SOME MIX
WITH SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.
THERE IS A CONCERN THAT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION, AIR
AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO DROP. THIS WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT
CONTINUES SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE OVERLY HEAVY, THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW. IN ADDITION VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT
TIMES WITH THE WIND. THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN WILL THEN ALSO LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK CONDITIONS ON ROADWAYS. HAVE MENTION OF THIS
IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
GIVEN THE SPREAD IN GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME GROWING CONSENSUS THAT TWO SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT TIMING, PLACEMENT AND
OVERALL IMPACTS ARE STILL A BIT MURKY.
SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING AN INITIAL WAVE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR CWA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE EURO HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORMING
A SNOW BAND THAT HAS THE BEST QPF AXIS FOCUSED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN KY INTO SOUTHERN OH, WITH LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS UP TOWARDS
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES TO THIS QPF
FOOTPRINT AS WELL, WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN MATCHING THE EURO FAIRLY
WELL. SLRS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR WITH THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL BE HIGHER THAN 10:1. NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR, SLRS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR (OR EVEN EXCEED) 15:1. HOWEVER,
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER, SLRS DO SLIGHTLY DROP TO AROUND AN 8 OR 9:1.
IN GENERAL THROUGH, THESE HIGHER RATIOS WILL RESULT IN SOME
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION, WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS
THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. STILL TOO EARLY TO
ASSESS EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT THE IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER WITH
THESE SYSTEMS IS THAT THE HIGH SLRS (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE OH
RIVER) WILL HELP THIS SNOWFALL OVERACHIEVE IN SOME AREAS.
THE OTHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER PHENOMENA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WEEKEND IS
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THE COLDEST DAY TO NOW BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS AND PERHAPS EVEN SUB-ZERO IN OUR NORTH. BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
ENSUES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. HINT AT SOME LOWER CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER MODELS SOMETIMES OVER SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO DECIDED NOT GO TO WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KDAY, KCMH, AND KLCK LATER
THIS MORNING, HOWEVER GENERALLY EXPECT ANY SNOW CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WIND GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY DROP OFF SOME TUESDAY EVENING INTO PART OF TUESDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THIS TIME. TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS. WIND GUSTS WILL
PICK UP AT THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF AND RAIN WILL START TO MOVE
INTO THE TAF LOCATION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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