443
FXUS61 KILN 230013
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
813 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FRONT WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END EARLY. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODED ENDED, HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH OHIO TODAY. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW IS DRAPED NEAR THE I-71
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INITIATE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30 KTS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CELLULAR WITH SOME MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AS COVERAGE IN
STORMS INCREASE. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST IN THESE
STORMS.
FROM A HYDRO PERSPECTIVE, PWATS STILL REMAIN NEAR 1.5-1.75" SE OF
I-71, INDICATING A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, FLOODING ISSUES WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED GIVEN THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH STORM MOTION TO LIMIT PROLONGED CONVECTION IN ONE
LOCATION. ANY FLOODING ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE A RESULT OF TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THIS OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO MID
80S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. HOWEVER, WE WILL BEGIN TO OBSERVE A WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEKEND.
MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK AND
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
PICKING UP ON A SIGNAL FOR PCPN ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
IMPROVE TO VFR AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTH AT
10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-12 KTS WILL
GUST UP TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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