724
FXUS61 KILN 191115
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST AND LINGERING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT IS EVIDENT ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ATTM.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING AND WEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE. LINGERING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A
HALF INCH OR LESS. AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS,
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE DEVELOPING WAA
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REBOUND, WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ON SATURDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST, CROSSING THROUGH THE ILN
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE, THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY, AND
THEN UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-30 MPH ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, SWITCHING FLOW TO
WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFICS
FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND, BUT THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, WITH WAVES IN
THE WNW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. AS OF NOW, THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED, OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WOULD
LIKELY BE RAIN.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG CAA ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO WEST WINDS THIS MORNING
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS LEADING TO MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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