275
FXUS61 KILN 021151
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER NORTH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TODAY, RESULTING IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MANY, AS WELL AS MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE
EXPECTED.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING LATE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TODAY, RESULTING IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MANY, AS WELL AS MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE ARE
EXPECTED.
530AM UPDATE...
A NARROW EAST-WEST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED
THROUGH COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. OHGO CAMERAS ARE
SHOWING NUMEROUS ROADWAYS THAT ARE SNOW COVERED, WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO WORSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS, HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS SUBSET OF COUNTIES, ALONG WITH
INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS TO ACCOUNT FOR 1-2 INCHES OF POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND
4-6 AM THIS MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL
MAINLY BEGIN AS SNOW, BUT A MORE RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IS FAVORED
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. NORTH OF THE RIVER, SEVERAL HOURS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. SLEET WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN OHIO COUNTIES
AND SOME OF THE SE INDIANA COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE NOSE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT DEEPENS. THUS, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDERCUT IN THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED, MODERATE SNOWFALL THAT WILL
RESULT A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" ACCUMULATIONS, WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 3". THIS CORRIDOR HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED NORTH WITH THE
LATEST FEW MODEL ITERATIONS, WHICH NOW PLACES THIS AXIS OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
OHIO.
LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERMAL
PROFILES DON'T APPEAR TO SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THIS P-TYPE.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.1" THIS MORNING. OUR NORTH-CENTRAL KY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS COUNTIES NEAR THE TRISTATE LIKELY OBSERVE THE
LONGEST PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO
REACH THOSE HIGHER ICE AMOUNTS NEAR 0.1". WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO WARM, WE ANTICIPATE THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
TO RAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN, THE AXIS
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO DURING
THE LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL
LIQUID OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING LATE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS, PROVIDING A STEADY STREAM OF WARM, MOIST AIR FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL PROMOTE A RAPID WARMING TREND AND RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET AIR. THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL THEN
INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOWER
CENTRAL PLAINS UP INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THIS REGION, WHICH WILL BE ONE
FORCING MECHANISM TO HELP WITH THE CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY,
PWAT ANOMALIES WILL BE 2-3X ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, HIGHLIGHTING THE
UNSEASONABLY WET AIR MASS IN PLACE. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
DURING EARLIER PART OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT OF
ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING EARLY ON. HOWEVER, THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL TUESDAY MAY STILL RESULT IN 24HR QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1" OR SO
FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL SERVE AS A PRIMER FOR FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS SHOW A ROBUST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
REGION ON THURSDAY. MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ON
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS
HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT OCCURS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, HYDRO CONCERNS GREATLY INCREASE AT THIS JUNCTURE. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL AS WELL ON THURSDAY, BUT DETAILS
ARE STILL MURKY WITH THIS PARTICULAR THREAT. FOR NOW, FLOODING
REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
WON'T DIVE INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, BUT A
CONTINUED WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND,
AMPLIFYING THE CONCERN FOR AERIAL AND RIVER FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX, WHICH HAS
IMPACTED KDAY AND KCMH/KLCK IN PARTICULAR. WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE
THIS WINTRY PRECIP EXPAND SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATING
THAT KCVG/KLUK WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF IP MIXING IN, WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA. ELSEWHERE, SNOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY
PCPN TYPE. VSBYS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AND PERHAPS SOME LIFR WITH
MOST OF THE WINTRY PRECIP.
CIGS REMAIN A BIT CHAOTIC. WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW IS OCCURRING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS, A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS IS OCCURRING.
HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS SHORT-LIVED AS VFR CIGS LIKELY RETURN ACROSS
OUR NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KCVG/KLUK IN PARTICULAR), CIGS MAY ONLY DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING,
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE IFR CIGS WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD LATE TODAY, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR (AND PERHAPS SOME
LIFR) CIGS TONIGHT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SO CONTINUED TO HAVE A -SHRA
MENTION. ADDITIONALLY, MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE
TRAPPED SHALLOW MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-043-
051>055-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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