923  
FXUS61 KILN 170104  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
904 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE  
REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM  
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/  
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINA  
COAST. WITH A DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA, LOWS  
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/  
 
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE  
FEED COMING OFF THE OCEAN COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING  
AROUND THE TOP OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRY TO BRING SOME  
SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
HOWEVER, LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOST HIGHER RESOLUTION  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
MEAGER. SO POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY WITH  
LITTLE QPF.  
 
CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY  
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS IN  
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS WILL BE WARMER  
WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL NOT BE  
PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED, BUT THERE WILL BE GENERALLY LOWER  
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH PERHAPS SOME  
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.  
 
OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE  
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST, WITH ITS INFLUENCE WANING OVER  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE  
LESSENING WITH TIME, THOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DIURNAL  
COMPONENT TO THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AFTER SEVERAL  
FORECAST CYCLES IN WHICH PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARED TO BE  
TRENDING SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, TODAY THE MODEL TREND  
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER. POPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIMITED TO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA, AND AN EVEN SMALLER AREA  
ON THURSDAY. WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED  
HEAVIER SHOWER (OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE  
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILN CWA) THE SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED, AND  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT OR  
MEANINGFUL. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE, WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE  
COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE  
LOWER 80S. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS  
THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.  
 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA  
AFTER THE LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS HIGH SHOULD  
BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY  
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEAR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,  
EITHER FROM A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN UPSTREAM OR POTENTIAL LOW  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE IS A WIDE DISPARITY IN MODEL  
SOLUTIONS AT THAT DISTANCE IN THE FORECAST. THUS, THE FORECAST WILL  
BE KEPT DRY ONCE AGAIN, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7-8.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH  
THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-71 TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY  
EVENING, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE  
TAF SITES.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...JGL  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...HATZOS  
AVIATION...JGL  
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