840
FXUS61 KILN 310557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
BACK ACROSS INDIANA/ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING TO OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE. WITH SOME COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL END UP WITH A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY PUSHES FARTHER OFF TO
THE SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL KEEP A COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THEN BRINGS IT SOUTHWEST
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUES AND TUES NIGHT. THIS BROAD LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE CWA ON WED AND OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, WHEN FLOW THEN BACKS TO SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH INSOLATION, SOME
INCREASED MOISTURE, AND HEAT BEING IMPORTED ON THIS SOUTHERLY WIND ON
MONDAY TO PRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN WESTERN CWA. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE
CLOSER ON TUESDAY, WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE
WEST AND FOR THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY ON BOTH
DAYS DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS HEATING WANES IN THE
EVENING. WHILE WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF AND MORE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, FORECAST ONLY BRINGS IT IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A WELCOME RESPITE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGINS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S, NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST HAS HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS START NICE AND COOL WITH SAT
MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF THE
OHIO. SUN MORNING WILL BE BUMPED 1-2 DEGREES FROM THIS. THE RETURN
OF SOUTHERLY WIND BRINGS MIN TEMPS SUN/MON NIGHTS TO 60-65. LOWS
TUE/WED NIGHTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARMER AND GENERALLY IN THE MID
60S AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INDIANA WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, CIGS WILL FALL INTO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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