729
FXUS61 KILN 161838
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
238 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE AREA DRIES OUT THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS. A NOTABLE COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL HAVE FIRED OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE
WARM FRONT BOUNDARY BY THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD,
LEAVING THE ILN CWA WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR. CAMS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH THE SIGNAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THE SURFACE INVERSION THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT REALLY BE A THREAT. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, AMPLE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DCAPE VALUES OF
OVER 800 OVERNIGHT... SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A STRONGER STORM.
FINALLY, ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE HIGH
RAIN RATES GIVEN PWATS 200% + OF NORMAL WITH PRETTY MOIST
VERTICAL PROFILES.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS THE NOSE OF THE LLJ CREEPS INTO OUR AREA. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW MUCH OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS, SO STARTED WITH THE (TYPICALLY MORE ROBUST) NBM BUT THEN
MASSAGED WIND SPEEDS BACK SLIGHTLY UNTIL SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, LEAVING SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION. AS WE BEGIN DAYTIME MIXING/HEATING,
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP NOTABLY, WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID/ UPPER 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BIGGER QUESTION MARK FOR WEDNESDAY REVOLVES AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON. QUITE DECENT BULK
SHEAR, REALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA, AROUND 40-50 KNOTS, WITH
SUBTLE TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS, AMPLE DCAPE, AND DECENT
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD BEHOOVE A "ALL HAZARDS" SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER... EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER MAY INHIBIT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS,
QUICKLY PINCHING OFF THE WARM SECTOR AND ALL INSTABILITY. EITHER
WAY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IT SHOULD FORCE
PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF IT, WITH MORE ROBUST COVERAGE IN
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
AGAIN, ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES, DESPITE BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE. THEREFORE, ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED SOILS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST
AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY. CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE LOW/MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. SUPPOSE AT LEAST SOME LOWER
END SEVERE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH
AND WE ARE ABLE TO PULL SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES UP INTO OUR
AREA.
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP OUR AREA DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL EVENTUALLY DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD,
LEADING TO SOME LOWER END POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO MODERATE SLOWLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/ LOCATION, DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
05Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR ON THE TAIL END OF
THIS PRECIP AND ISOLATED VSBY DROPS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, WIND PICKS UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LLWS AT KDAY AND MAY END UP NEEDING TO ADD THIS IN AT
OTHER LOCATIONS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION BY
14Z-ISH WEDNESDAY, LEAVING MVFR CIGS BEHIND. WINDS CONTINUE TO
PICK UP, OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE
HINTED AT THIS IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CA
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