979  
FXUS61 KILN 090508  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
108 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY,  
PROVIDING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEASONABLY WARM  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SOME DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE  
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS  
LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/  
 
CAMS DO DEPICT THE CURRENT DIMINISHING OF CONVECTION AS IT HEADS  
ACROSS INDIANA, SO CONTINUING PREVIOUS SLIGHT DELAY OF PRECIP ONSET.  
THE INITIAL FEW HOURS OF THE 00Z CAMS DO STILL DEPICT AN ENHANCED LL  
JET DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10-12Z, SO STILL EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES SE  
INDIANA. BACKED OFF OF THE TIMING STILL A LITTLE MORE, ALONG WITH THE  
PRECIP PROBABILITY.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD, GENERALLY WITH LOWER 60S  
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASE SW FLOW. COOL SPOT WILL BE IN  
THE EAST, CLOSER TO 60 WHERE CLEARING WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/  
 
STACKED DEEP LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
MONDAY. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WHICH INCREASES TO 35 TO 40 KTS  
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND FORCING TO INCREASE. A NARROW BAND OF  
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN  
COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST THRU THE AREA THRU THE AFTN.  
 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION ON MONDAY  
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH  
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN  
THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ILN/S EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.  
 
THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH CHANCES  
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE IN THE DAY  
INTO THE EVENING AS ANTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MID LEVEL  
LOW AND A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS  
TO NOSE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.  
 
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS AND PCPN MOVING THROUGH  
THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 70S.  
 
LOWS DROP OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEARING SKIES  
AND LIGHT WINDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM WEST ON TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW  
AVERAGE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S. .  
 
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP WEST OF THE HIGH LEADING TO  
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEK. HIGHS REACH 80 ON WEDNESDAY AND THE MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO  
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WORKING IN  
FROM THE NORTH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD  
BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHRA, WITH ISO EMBEDDED TSRA, ONCE AGAIN  
OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WSW IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND  
DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT KDAY EARLIEST BEFORE SPREADING TO  
THE E RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. STEADY SHRA WILL PROMOTE A  
MOISTENING OF THE BL, ALLOWING FOR CIGS TO LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR BY  
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED  
DURING THE HEAVIER POCKETS OF PCPN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY SHRA  
SHIELD WILL SHIFT E BY 21Z, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR ISO  
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP /BEHIND/ THE PRIMARY BAND BETWEEN ABOUT 19Z-22Z,  
SO HAVE KEPT THE SHRA POTENTIAL GOING IN THE FCST A BIT LONGER TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  
 
A RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY/PAST 21Z-22Z, WITH SKIES  
GOING MOSTLY CLEAR BY EARLY EVENING. THIS BEING SAID, CLOUDS WILL BE  
ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WITH THIS, THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A VERY  
NARROW/THIN LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW  
LEADING UP TO 06Z TUESDAY, SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KDAY FOR NOW  
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, TOO.  
 
LIGHT SW WIND AROUND 5KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS,  
COMBINED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND STILL PLENTY OF NEAR-GROUND  
MOISTURE, WILL ALLOW FOR BR AND VSBYS REDUCTIONS AT KLUK BEFORE THE  
CLOUDS ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE. WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS,  
WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS, BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN  
BY/PAST SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR  
NEAR TERM...JDR  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL  
AVIATION...KC  
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