106
FXUS61 KILN 131836
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY HAS PROVIDED
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS ANTICIPATED, WINDS HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT, AND LOCATIONS MAY STAY
ABOVE THEIR TYPICAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY WAS DRY, JET STREAM DYNAMICS BEGIN TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO AROUND DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL CONSIST OF RAIN DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPROACHING WEST-CENTRAL
OHIO AROUND 8AM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM 8AM TO NOON. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
THESE SHOWERS, PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY VARY A BIT. OPTED FOR A MENTION
OF RAIN/SNOW MIX GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE REALITY IS THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL COOL,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS WHEREVER THE SHOWERS
LINGER.
THE DEEP TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (POTENTIALLY AIDED BY LAKE MICHIGAN
ENHANCEMENT) AROUND THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THE ABOVE NORMAL
START TO THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING, THURSDAY MORNING MAY
COME AS QUITE THE SHOCK WITH TEMPERATURES 30 DEGREES COOLER.
NORTHWEST WINDS, COMBINED WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES, WILL RESULT
IN FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO TO START THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN THEME FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER AS THE LINGERING COLD AIR MASS
IS IN PLACE, BUT IT WILL NOT BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY, BUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
A RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY REPLACE IT FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE (>1" AT 30% ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA) WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE. THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB LATER INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS DROP TO NEAR
ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW
ZERO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROUGH,
BUT A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS NOT FORECAST.
AFTER A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE COLDEST CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
HIGH THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THIS SECONDARY EVENT, EVEN LIGHT SNOWFALL
COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS. FOLLOWING THE LIGHT SNOW, ANOTHER ROUND OF
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH VALUES NEARING -10
DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MULTI-DAY COLD STRETCH REMAINS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THE PRIMARY AVIATION STORY TO START. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING,
A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL OCCUR. OVERNIGHT, MVFR CIGS DEVELOP WITH A BAND
OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHERN OHIO, AND
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECASTS STILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL MISSING TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES, HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ENTERS THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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