889
FXUS61 KILN 142353
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- DELAYED ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WITH EPISODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) STORMS HAVE MATURED INTO A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER
IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. IT SHOULD WEAKEN HEADING TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO,
BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT TO WIND DOWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS DEPEND ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION
AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE AN HWO MENTION OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING 30-40
KNOTS OF SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL END AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. CAA AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, FROST MAY BECOME A CONCERN THIS NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OHIO TO START THE PERIOD WILL
AFFECT KDAY, BUT IT STILL IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WHETHER THAT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. AFTER THIS PASSES, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR WHEN ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO BEFORE 12Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING, LET ALONE GETTING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS, IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS POINT. GREATER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z AND
11Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KT ONCE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page