425
FXUS61 KILN 281821
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW OR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE TIMING ON THIS. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A
BIT OF VARIABILITY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS WITH THE TIMING, IF IT IS HEAVY ENOUGH, THAT
SNOW MONDAY MORNING COULD IMPACT THE COMMUTE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. HI-RES MODELS ARE A LOT MORE ROBUST WITH FEATURE. WILL
INCREASE WORDING IN HWO FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SHIFT TO WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY WITH THIS PATTERN AS REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ON SOME OF THE DAYS AS WELL AND
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO NARROW DOWN THIS POTENTIAL
AS WELL. WILL HIGHLIGHTS THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN AT THE AREA TAF SITES. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL
HOUR TIME PERIOD WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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