969
FXUS61 KILN 101756
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
156 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL.
2) AFTER A QUIET START TO THE WORKWEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE DAYS
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS NOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND LIFTING NORTH. MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AT THIS TIME ACROSS MUCH
OF KENTUCKY, BUT EXPECTING GUSTS TO RAMP UP TO 25-30 MPH AFTER ABOUT
20Z. AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONTINUOUS ESPECIALLY NEAR/AFTER 00Z,
AREAS EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR SHOULD PICK UP 0.5" TO 1.5" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING FLOOD ISSUES AT THIS
TIME. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING THROUGH 18-22Z IN THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK, AND THEN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK BRINGS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGES, ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. LIMITED FORCING AND INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, SO WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE 18-22Z TIMEFRAME FROM THE
SOUTHEAST GUSTING INTO THE 25-30KT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 06-09Z. AS
THE CENTER OF THE REMAINS OF ISAIAS SKIRTS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA, CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AREA-WIDE. STILL THINKING THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, SO KEEPING WITH THE TREND TO NOT INCLUDE
TSTMS AT ANY OF THE TAF LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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