000
FXUS61 KILN 311809
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST, ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
EXPECTED APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 99-103 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA.
HEAT WILL BUILD INTO MIDWEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) THE HEAT AND MAX TEMPERATURES TUES AND WED ARE
PROBABLY A SMIDGE OVERDONE AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED IN THAT
REGARD. THIS PUTS THE ADVISORY AS I'M SEEING IT AS A LOW END THREAT
ON BOTH DAYS. THURSDAY IS SIMILAR BUT CONFIDENCE IN NBM FORECAST
THAT FAR OUT WRT HEAT IS LOW. KICKING THURSDAY'S CAN TO TOMORROW'S
DAY SHIFT OR LATER.
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY GET WARMER WITH EACH PASSING DAY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. SUSPECT THAT GUIDANCE IS A BIT BULLISH. WHILE SOILS
ARE DRYING OUT, THERE ARE STILL LINGERING WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS, AFTER TODAY HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AROUND 100.
ON THURSDAY, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARDS. A FRONT THAT LAYS OUT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MAY BE
IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO BRING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTH. THE AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES LOOKS MINIMAL. AND IN THE SOUTH, THIS MAY END UP BEING
THE HOTTEST DAY.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE
BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THE FRONT THAT WAS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO, AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH, THE AREA. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY. THESE CHANGES WILL ALSO
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT BEING AS HIGH, ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOCUSED IN NORTHEASTERN CWA,
COVERING DAY TO CMH/LCK WITH A LESSENING AND MORE HIGH BASED/FAIR WX
CU AT ILN AND SE TO CVG/LUK. RADAR RETURNS AIMING AT WEST CENTRAL
OHIO AT THIS HOUR ARE ONLY SPITTING OUT A TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM A HIGH BASED DECK 6-10KFT. DO NOT SEE THIS LOWER
STUFF AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS BUT WANTED TO SPEAK TO IT.
WIND GOES LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND PICKS BACK UP TOMORROW
MORNING AT 10-15 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST AS WE HAVE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT HAVE GUSTS IN FCST GIVEN IT ONLY GOES THROUGH
18Z.
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLUK
LATE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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