153
FXUS61 KILN 131705
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WHEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A
STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS EVENTUALLY START TO STREAM IN FROM WEST LATER
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SEVERE RISK
IS FAIRLY LOW SINCE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH SKINNY
CAPE PROFILES, SUPPORTING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SHEAR WHICH COULD AID IN STORM STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DOES FORM LATER ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE HIGH ON
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ACCOMPANY THIS SURFACE LOW. THE IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILE OVER
THE REGION MAY OVERLAP WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHICH COULD END UP SUPPORTING A SEVERE STORM
RISK. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO KNOW
EXACT DETAILS REGARDING THE STORM RISK, THE PRESENCE OF SUCH A STRONG
LOW IN MID JUNE COULD LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. LATER TONIGHT, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
BY 1200Z, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
1800Z SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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