175
FXUS61 KILN 120555
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED
AND THURS BEFORE TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AND WARMER
AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STREAM IN. AS THE FRONT CROSSES, THIS
PRECEDING AIRMASS WILL BE LIFTED AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS IT PASSES.
MOST OF THE THUNDER TONIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED AS SHOWERS MOVE IN,
BUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AS INDICIES ARE NOT FAVORING
THESE PROCESSES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT MAY LAG TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING IN THE
MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF COLD POOL SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OH, BUT IS NOT TRENDING THIS WAY NOR APPARENT IN LATEST MODEL RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. SOME LOW 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT OVER NRN KY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WED AND THURS NIGHTS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL, WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SAT THROUGH MON WILL JUMP 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S SAT, UPPER 80S SUN, AND NEAR 90 MON. A CORRESPONDING
UPWARD TREND IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S SAT NIGHT,
UPPER 60S SUN NIGHT, AND MID-UPPER 60S MON NIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS WARM PERIOD, BUT MODELS ARE NOT
IN SYNC BUT ALL SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING SUN. THIS RIDING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT S/W ACTIVITY FROM SPARKING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME GIVEN ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN LATE IN THE DAY,
AND WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY. OVERNIGHT, SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PICK UP
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 10-15KT AND A 15KFT OVC DECK SHOULD BE
WORKING IN, IF NOT PREVALENT.
AT CVG, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN A THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST,
AND THIS MAY BRING IN MVFR CIGS AOA 2KFT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE FOUND, BUT INDICIES ARE BULLISH ON ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHTING, PRIMARILY CLOUD-CLOUD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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