350
FXUS61 KILN 231103
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
3) COLD TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK,
ALLOWING FOR AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL
PRODUCE SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. HAVE EXTENDED THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL, WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO NOSE UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY. WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY
BE IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW. THE FORCING WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE,
BUT WHILE INITIAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH, SLRS SHOULD BE ON
THE HIGHER SIDE.
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT, A SECOND MORE
ROBUST AND IMPACTFUL ROUND OF WINTERY PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA THAT LAST AT LEAST INTO
MONDAY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES DURING AND AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SNOW SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WHEN LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (~850 HPA) RAMPS UP AS THE
OHIO VALLEY ENTERS A REGION OF STRONG ASCENT IN THE DUEL JET
STRUCTURE ALOFT (POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH
AND EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TO THE NORTH). THIS
ROBUST FORCING DRIVEN BY THE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION OVERLAPS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS SUPPORTING LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF APPROACHING
AN INCH OR GREATER ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71.
THERE IS A GROWING QUESTION SURROUNDING THE QPF AND WHICH
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL OCCUR. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTHWEST OF I-71
ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT SNOW FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71 HAVE HIGHER
LIKELIHOODS OF EXPERIENCING A MIX OF SOME SLEET AND PERHAPS A PERIOD
FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO WARM AIR AROUND 850 HPA.
THIS WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SNOW
TOTALS DUE TO POOR SLRS AND QPF FALLING AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF THE BINNING OF THE QPF INTO VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION TYPES (SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN) SHOULD BE
GAINED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE COMING IN.
THUS, STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AND ICE FORECASTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.
AGAIN, REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE, SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. LASTING IMPACTS COULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN REMOVING SNOW
AND ICE WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3) COLD TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
INTO NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE PERIODS OF TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO ALONG
WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS TUESDAY
MORNING MAY BE AS LOW AS -10F TO -20F.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...SNOW WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>044.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY
FOR INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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