248
FXUS61 KILN 191913
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
2) ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR WIND SHEAR RESULTING
IN MINIMAL CONVECTION, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AS CAPE VALUES GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
LATE THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CARVE ITS WAY SOUTH,
SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, CAMS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
I-70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR SOME LOCATIONS, A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ENSUE. THE ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.8"
AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT LOCATIONS NEAR EASTERN IN/WESTERN OH AND
CENTRAL OH HAVE SATURATED SOILS IN THE 95TH-99TH PERCENTILE RANGE
(ACCORDING TO NASA SPORT-LIS), A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED GIVEN
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK.
KEEP IN MIND, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA. WHILE MOST CAMS HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SOUTH, PORTIONS OF THE TRISTATE (ESP FAR SOUTHWEST
OH) ARE ALSO PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE DUE TO HIGH SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT. SHOULD STORMS BE MORE ROBUST AND LINGER A BIT LONGER IN NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER, LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES MAY OCCUR.
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE VERY LIMITED TODAY/TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND SHEAR DOESN'T INCREASE UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING, SO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL
THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
LESS ROBUST IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHIFTING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS CENTRAL/WESTERN OH AND AREAS
NORTH. NONETHELESS, STILL WARRANTS A MENTION GIVEN THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. WILL DELVE INTO MORE DETAILS AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. JUST HAD A SHRA MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LIMITED THUNDER ACTIVITY, BUT WILL AMEND IF COVERAGE IN THUNDER
INCREASES.
BETTER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND PARTICULARLY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN ON WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED (SOME GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO TREND STORMS EVEN LATER). NONETHELESS, THE MORAL OF THE
STORY IS THAT A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PROVIDE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN
TO FIRE OFF A FEW HOURS LATER NEAR THE TRISTATE, WITH PCPN BECOMING
MORE PROGRESSIVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD.
MVFR CIGS (< 2000 FT) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PERHAPS BEFORE THE RAINFALL ENDS. A PERIOD OF IFR CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. CIGS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A SHIFT TO THE NW
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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