387
FXUS61 KILN 071749
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
149 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL HELP US MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE TS REMNANTS, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE REMNANTS FROM THIS TS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO REACH OUR FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES SATURDAY EVENING, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP. AS OF NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE
COLUMN OF AIR CONTINUES TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT, THESE WINDS APPEAR TO
SUBSIDE A BIT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE OVERALL STORM
TRACK. CURRENTLY, MODEL/ENSEMBLE AVERAGES ARE AROUND 0.5" TO 1.0",
WITH 'HIGH-END' AMOUNTS NEAR 2.0". KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE VALUES MAY
BE IN FLUX DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KLUK, WHERE
VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM VALLEY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY OUT OF THE SW. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE WNW FOR
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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