004
FXUS61 KILN 052358
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
758 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN STARTING MID WEEK AND
EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL ERODE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN WINDS WITH SOME DECOUPLING LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA -- AND THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. FROST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS LATE WHICH MAY LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA -- WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH WINDS ARE ABLE TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS EVENING LEAVING
FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
VFR CIGS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 25 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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