803
FXUS61 KILN 050521
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TROUGHING PATTERN MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH A
70MB CUT OFF LOW AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORKING WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS STICKS
AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
EASTWARD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS WITH
COLLAPSING STORMS, BUT GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGH RAIN RATES
AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY POSE MORE OF A THREAT. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
TO 2 INCHES, VERY SKINNY CAPE, AND HIGH MID LEVEL RHS IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH POPUP STORMS THAT WILL LOWER
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
AS THE ARE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST, SIMILAR
CONCERNS ARISE FOR MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS. PM THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN LACK OF FORCING AND LACK OF ROBUST
INSTABILITY, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS.
WEAK RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK AND WE'LL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, WHEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 2).
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION,
IT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA, INHIBITING INSOLATION.
THIS, COMBINED WITH A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME
VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK
WEEK REACH THE LOW 80S MON AND TUES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH, PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AND HAVE TRIED TO TIME
THESE INTO TAFS ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS DECREASE AGAIN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A MORE
WIDESPREAD LOWING OF CIGS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE KDAY TAF.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-
051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ074.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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