428
FXUS61 KILN 121704
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
2) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. EFFICIENT
RAINFALLS RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED (1+ INCHES PER HOUR) IN THE HIGH
PWAT ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCHES) OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAY EXPERIENCE UPWARDS OF 1-2+
INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK. LOCATIONS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
FLOOD WATCH HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING NARROW SWATHS
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS END TONIGHT WHEN FORCING
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW AND SHEAR INCREASE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY END
UP BEING AN OVERLAP OF AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE (SPC MARGINAL RISK).
CURRENTLY, THERE STORM COVERAGE IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT
WIDESPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO START
THE WORK WEEK. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH LEADS TO
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF THE WEEK AS A FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT POSSIBLY
TURNING A BIT COOLER THAN AREAS TO SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS, AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. LOWERED CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY BR/FG. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ055-056-064-065-073-
074-079>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ097>100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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