828
FXUS61 KILN 162347
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY;
SPECIFICALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM RISK IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
NORTHEAST OF DAYTON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A SECOND, VERY DEEP LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BRINGING POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AN AXIS OF
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR (EFFECTIVE SHEAR > 50 KNOTS; 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100
M2/S2) OVERLAPS WITH INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
SUPPORTING A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON IN A FAIRLY FOCUSED AREA. THIS AREA OF INTEREST IS
LIKELY TO BE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO AROUND RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH CAMS TO NOT SHOW
MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT, THE IMPRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE DEEP LOW. CAMS ARE DEPICTING A LINE
OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ENTERING AREAS NORTHWEST OF DAYTON AT
ROUGHLY 9PM BEFORE OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
KINEMATIC PROFILES REMAIN EXTREMELY ROBUST IN TERMS OF BOTH SHEAR
(EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS; 0-1 SRH 471 M2/S2) AND WIND SPEED
(70 KNOTS LESS THAN 1KM AGL). INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT
ML CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG LIKELY IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE
RISK WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT DUE TO VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. EXTREME
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES AND STRUNG OUT HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADIC RISK OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY DESPITE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-71 WHERE THE STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
OVERLAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
AS THEY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HIGH PWATS (2+
INCHES) IN PLACE. HIGH RAIN RATES OF 1-2+ INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE AND FLOOD RISK WILL NOT
COMPLETELY END UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FULLY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY BOTH
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE ANY STORM ACTIVITY. WINDS ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
EXCEED 50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
MIX THESE WINDS DOWN. GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-71. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE TOWARD WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE WEAKENING TREND IS SUPPORTED BY THE BETTER AXIS OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST DESPITE SHEAR
INCREASING LOCALLY (EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS). STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD
EAST. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME THUNDER AT KDAY AND A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY, AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 06Z WHICH COULD ALLOW KLUK TO HAVE SOME SHALLOW FOG AND BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT AFTER 18Z. THERE COULD BE FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 30 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...35
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