434
FXUS61 KILN 211144
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY TEMPORARILY CLEAR OR
SCATTER THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MOISTURE REMAINING AROUND 850 MB,
AND WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING, SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A PASSING FLURRY OR TWO AS THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE LOCATED
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS EARLY
ON WILL SCATTER/CLEAR DURING THE EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS BACKING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING TREND. NORTH WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES WITH A FEW ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS
POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
SUNSHINE AND A WEAK SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 30S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE 50S FROM MIDWEEK UNTIL THE WEEKEND. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL STILL SEE WARMER HIGHS BUT ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S,
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION THAT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BEGIN IN THE
NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING, DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT
QUICKLY DECAYS OVER THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL BE DECAYING AS THE
UPPER S/W ENERGY WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FRONT, AND THE
TROUGH AXIS IS QUITE BROAD AND DECREASING IN STRENGTH.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY PER THE GFS BUT NOT SO MUCH WITH THE
EURO OR CANADIAN MODELS. ON FRIDAY, THE CANADIAN AND GFS LOOK
TO BE IN SYNC WITH A STRONG, POSSIBLY CLOSED, UPPER LOW EJECTING
NORTHEAST INTO LOWER MI. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND
ABOUT 18 HOURS BEHIND THE OTHER MODELS. RUNNING WITH THE TWO
THAT ARE IN SYNC, EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT TO AFFECT THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME WEAK REMNANTS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST WITH THIS IN MIND, AND IF THE EURO DOES BEAT OUT
THE OTHER TWO, THE MAIN BODY OF RAIN WILL BE COMING IN OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY, EXITING SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR TODAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS CAA.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR 850 MB, AND WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING,
SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO
REDEVELOP. THE CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY, RANGING
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND
10 KNOTS. WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY, CAN NOT RULE OUT A
PASSING FLURRY OR TWO, BUT THIS SHOULD NOT RESTRICT
VISIBILITIES.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS TO
BREAK UP, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER IN THE
NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH, LIKELY BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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