644
FXUS61 KILN 080540
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-70.
2) A LARGER SYSTEM ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK, REINTRODUCING
A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CLIPS OUR
SOUTHERLY COUNTIES, A RENEWED CHANCE FOR LARGELY DIURNAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.9 INCHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER) AND TRAINING
STORM MOTION MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASE. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SAGGING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL LAY OUT ZONALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO RIDE ALONG AND DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
THESE FEATURES LOOK TO IMPACT OUR AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. PWATS OF 2+ INCHES, SKINNY CAPE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR W TO E TRAINING STORMS, AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
INTRODUCE A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. WHILE OUR
ENTIRE AREA WILL RECEIVE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL, THE GREATEST QPF
FOOTPRINT APPEARS CURRENTLY TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH A
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES CURRENTLY PAINTED ACROSS KY FROM THURS- SAT
BASED ON ENSEMBLE PLUMES, WITH THE GRADIENT LESSENING THE FARTHER
NORTH YOU GO. OF COURSE, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS AND THOSE LOCATIONS IS WHERE THE GREATEST FLOODING
THREAT WILL BE. MANY DETAILS STILL REMAIN TO BE WORKED OUT, BUT WILL
LIKELY START MESSAGING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ONCE AGAIN, PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE DENSEST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OHIO/
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. FOR NOW, HAVE ONLY DROPPED VSBYS BRIEFLY AT
LUK, ILN, AND LCK. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL CU ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
IN. SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN OHIO/ NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THOUGH THE SIGNAL SEEMS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST
OF OUR TAF SITES. HOWEVER, MENTIONING THE THE CHANCE HERE FOR
AWARENESS.
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
AND WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PATCHY FOG
IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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