740
FXUS61 KILN 110657
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
257 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING.
2) BECOMING DRIER AND WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MCV OVER ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 3.5-4.0 KM, VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. SO, THERE WILL
BE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
THERE ARE SIGNALS WITHIN CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE A PRETTY PERSISTENT WEST-EAST ZONE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY BE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD ALSO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY
A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LARGE, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL ELONGATE AND EXTEND
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THERE IS A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT BEFORE WE GET THERE. THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE CUTTING OFF OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST FROM THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71 BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTER THAT POINT, THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER TOP OF IT.
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US
LATE IN THE WEEK, SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL RETURN. ALSO, WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH, ALTHOUGH READINGS
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TO START. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LIFR STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z WITH CEILINGS
RETURNS TO VFR AFTER THAT. AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA AFTER 10Z. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE MAY BE
TWO SEPARATE TIMES WHEN THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED
WHILE OTHER SITES MAY END UP WITH A RELATIVELY EXTENDED PERIOD OF
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A PERIOD OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS
WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARDS 22Z AND LOWER
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE WILL BE A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL MAKE DETERMINING
A WIND DIRECTION DIFFICULT, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EVENTUALLY,
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ073-074-078>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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