783
FXUS61 KILN 131835
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
235 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SPECIFIC MESSAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. ALSO SEPARATED THE STRONG COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO A SEPARATE KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. EPISODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAIN LOW, BUT GIVEN THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SITS WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR, WARM AND MOIST AIR DO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
POSE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REACH THE AREA
(WEST-CENTRAL OHIO) LATER THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTH, WITH THE ACTIVITY NOW REMAINING NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA.
OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MAY SURVIVE INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS, BUT THE BOUNDARY PROVIDED BY THIS ACTIVITY COULD
ESTABLISH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL OHIO AND PERHAPS INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
CURRENTLY, THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL
RISK) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. DUE TO THE BOUNDARY DISCUSSED
ABOVE, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE CONTINGENT ON MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY
TRENDS FOLLOWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. USING THE HRRR AS AN EXAMPLE,
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MONDAY HELPS TO POOL MOISTURE
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WOULD
PERSIST WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH BACKED FLOW AND ROBUST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY (IF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MODELED OCCURS). CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A NARROW WINDOW WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO OR TWO DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 24-PLUS HOURS BEFORE THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT TUESDAY, RECORDS ARE CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), AND
DAY 82F (1931,1941). CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE CVG
82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR ON TUESDAY, THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SETUP
REMAINS THE SAME GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE SUPPORTING WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKE AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
THE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE TROUGH, THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THESE
TWO DAYS APPEARS LOW. LACKLUSTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NON-
OPTIMAL TIMING ON THURSDAY, LIKELY DECREASES THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN LOW, BUT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ANOMALOUS PWATS COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN HIGH
WATER CONCERNS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
THE PERIOD OF DRIER AIR ON FRIDAY IS SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER LIFT.
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT, BUT THEY ARE ALSO NOT ZERO.
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF IT CROSSES DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COOLER AIR SURGES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WIND GUSTS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF LLWS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR MVFR THRESHOLDS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, MVFR CIGS MAY
NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM THE CURRENT SCT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN QUITE SCATTERED. THE BEST
CHANCE LIKELY EXISTS WITH REMNANT ACTIVITY FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MOVING INTO DAY/CMH/LCK DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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