936
FXUS61 KILN 080603
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEST-EAST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO
THE MORNING. THIS AXIS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH ANY RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY.
SHORT WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST IN THE
BASE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-70 DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING
CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER, BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LAY OUT AS INITIAL SHORT WAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A SECOND
WEAKER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE AS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG IT BY THE TIME IT IS
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH READINGS
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO MID WEEK WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO AFFECTING
KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
COME AFTER 21Z, WITH THAT CHANCE INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY
LATE. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH SOME GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 20 KT DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BACK TO THE SOUTH
AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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