484
FXUS61 KILN 301024
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
624 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY, WITH VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOORS ITEMS.
2) A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BY TUESDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AND NE PARTS OF THE ILN FA. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, BUT SOME LOW-END POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE 70-DEGREE MARK,
EVEN WITH FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK S/W
PIVOTS E THROUGH THE NRN OH VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A
SFC WAVE EJECTING E THROUGH THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PLACE THE ILN FA SQUARELY IN AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR, WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SE FLANK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
BREEZY CONDITIONS AMIDST DIURNALLY-ENHANCED MIXING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN H8 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 40KTS WILL DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE THROUGH THE OH VLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
FROM IL/IN INTO NRN OH. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL MIXING WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY DEEP, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN 30-35KT WINDS
NEAR/NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAX GUSTS
MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY-LEVEL (40KTS) IN A VERY ISOLATED FASHION,
DO THINK THAT THE SETUP WILL STAY MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
ILN FA. NEVERTHELESS, GUSTS OF 30-35KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OH VLY. THIS CONVEYOR BELT OF WARMER/MOISTURE-RICH
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN A W-E
CORRIDOR NEAR A TIGHTENING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK SFC WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TO
THE E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED BACK TO THE SW, WHICH WILL SAG INTO THE
ILN FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS FAR NW PARTS OF THE ILN FA LATE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A WEAKENING TREND WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WITH SE EXTENT LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
OCCUR WITH AN INCREASINGLY-STABLE ENVIRONMENT ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LIFT NEAR THE
SAGGING FRONT. MOST AREAS NEAR/SE OF I-71 MAY STAY DRY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LINGERING
IN THE NW THIRD OF THE LOCAL AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, DIGGING S/W ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PROMOTE HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OH/TN VLYS.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE LL FRONT TO STALL, OR EVEN PIVOT BACK TO THE N,
DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT (WHICH MAY BE DRAPED SQUARELY ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MIDDAY), THE FOCUS FOR LIFT WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK, WITH ONLY SPOTTY ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS BETWEEN THE OH
RVR AND I-70 DURING THE DAYTIME. PCPN CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE N/NW THIRD OF THE ILN FA FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EVEN WITH SOME ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THE MORE-AMPLIFIED S/W WILL PIVOT INTO THE OH VLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPANDING IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INCREASE INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY FLATTENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT THE FORCING SHOULD DECREASE A BIT LATER INTO THE NIGHT, SO
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FURTHER E INTO THE LOCAL AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER (STRONGER) SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, IT SEEMS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-3" OF RAIN
FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NW
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW DETAILS TO
BE DETERMINED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION DURING THIS STRETCH.
ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PATTERN SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE
FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, ANY PROLONGED PW
ANOMALY OF 200+% WITH A PARADE OF S/WS THROUGH THIS MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSE FOR AT LEAST SOME CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AFTER A
FAIRLY WET MARCH (RAINFALL 150%-200% OF NORMAL) ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO CERTAINLY SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE AS WELL
LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND , OWING TO THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS (EVEN WITH THE RELATIVELY-PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS).
AS THE WEATHER UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
LIKELY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SOME 80S ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON EXPANSE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE MVFR
CIGS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW, BUT CERTAINLY THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY AT KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK. SW SFC WINDS AROUND 10-12KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-18KTS, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25KTS, FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 45KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
STIFF SW SFC FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 12-15KTS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCT/BKN BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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