084
FXUS61 KILN 011043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, OTHERWISE EXPECT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL OFFER DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A 90 DEGREE HIGH AT A VALLEY LOCATION NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS WHICH
DEVELOP INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ALONG THE FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY - SO CAN NOT RULE
OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER. ALSO, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS BEFORE ENDING BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED
BY MVFR CEILINGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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