103
FXUS61 KILN 031856
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
256 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A DOMINATING RIDGE IS ONCE AGAIN PROVIDING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING OVER 100 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.
A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NEED EXPANDED TO
THE NORTH, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND CLOUD COVER.
THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS (SOUTHEAST INDIANA,
SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY), MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY
EXTENSION INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW TALLER CUMULUS
LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH PERHAPS A VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AN MCS IS LIKELY TO
BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST OHIO.
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS HIGHER IN THOSE LOCATIONS, WITH SPC
UPGRADING TO AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR THE DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY STRETCH INTO
CENTRAL OHIO, PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE COVERAGE WITHIN THE
LOCAL AREA. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE STRONGEST IN THE
NORTHEAST, WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-35 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-OHIO TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
UNTIL A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH. SO, DEPENDING ON THE
ACTIVITY FRIDAY, ANOTHER ROUND WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA UP UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE
WEST.
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL-OHIO TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS /TSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR IMPACTS
DIRECTLY AT TAF SITES, NO MENTION WAS ADDED FOR THIS TAF UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE DIRECTION CLOSER TO 280-300
DEGREES.
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AT SOME POINT, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON ANY OF THE ACTIVITY REACHING THE
LOWER AREA, NO MENTIONS HAVE BEEN ADDED IN THE TAF. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
043>046-052-056.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-
080.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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