888
FXUS61 KILN 140621
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
2) BECOMING UNSETTLED AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND THEN BECOME REORIENTED IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS
THAT WILL BRING IT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. BY WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AROUND 100, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN A BIT ON THURSDAY AND GET NUDGED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A DEGREE OR SO
LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN PERSISTENCE. FURTHER SUPPRESSION OF THE RIDGE WILL
OCCUR INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST US CAUSES NORTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION, SO THERE WILL
BE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS THAT A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE OUT OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPROACH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY SAG
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THAT TIME. WHILE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
STARTS TO APPROACH 2 INCHES AGAIN, SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. NBM POPS HAVE MADE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SWING
TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION.
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE A
WASH OUT, BUT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL DEVELOP AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO
IFR. ANY FOG WILL END BY 13Z. ONLY A FEW CUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WITH HEATING WHICH WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS 00Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ070-071-077-078.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ046-055-056-065.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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