224
FXUS61 KILN 120700
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SNOW ENDING THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING BITTERLY COLD
WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THRU THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. BAND OF SNOW NORTHEAST OF
THIS LOW TO TRACK THRU ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING
AT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM - RADAR FOOTPRINT AND LATEST GUIDANCE -
THERE IS A SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF ILN/S AREA. TIME LAGGED NBM LOOKS SLIGHTLY HIGH - SO HAVE TRIMMED
BACK AMOUNTS ABOUT A HALF INCH OR SO. HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT
HEADLINES WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST (CARROLL/OWEN COUNTIES) MOST LIKELY
TO REACH 3 TO 4 INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH MID MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE CINCINNATI METRO
AREA. WILL TO KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES IN PLACE WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE. SNOW ENDS QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTH. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AID WITH ROAD TREATMENTS
AND IMPROVING TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AFTER SNOWFALL ENDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFERING A DRY
PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST - AS THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE A MAJOR
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS STRONG CAA CAUSES 16:1 RATIOS AT 18Z TO
INCREASE TO 22:1 SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY EVENING
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES
CONTINUING TO BE SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF HIGHER BAND SETTING SOUTH OF I- 70. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST IS
TRICKY GIVEN THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE SLRS. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE THE PLACEMENT OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH LOOKS GOOD, WITH NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
WITH TEMPERATURES TUMBLING AND WINDS INCREASING AS THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF, TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS SNOW MAY LAST LONGER AND BE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WHEN COMPARED TO THE RECENT EVENTS THIS SEASON. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW, WIND, AND COLD WILL MAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AN
UNFAVORABLE TIME TO BE OUTSIDE OR TRAVELING.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL SATURDAY WITH READINGS BY EVENING FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 SOUTHEAST. FORECAST LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT DROP OFF TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO AREA
WIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM WILL BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 0 TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 10
BELOW ZERO (OR LOWER IN OUR WESTERN ZONES). THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDER NEAR THE HIGH'S
CENTER ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL SITES
BELOW ZERO AT SHELTERED LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE
WINDS FACTORED IN, WIND CHILL WILL LIKELY FALL INTO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
20S MONDAY AFTERNOON, 30S TUESDAY, 40S WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE 50S IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AT KCVG/KLUK BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.
IT IS POSSIBLE KDAY/KILN MAY GET BRIEFLY GRAZED BY LIGHT SNOW. SOME
IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIEST SNOW. LITTLE TO
NO SNOW OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KCMH/KLCK.
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE QUICKLY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SNOW EARLY
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ROUND 5KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VRB BY 18Z AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY AROUND 5-7KTS
LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SNOW WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ070>073-
077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ091>093-
099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089-090-
094>098.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ058-059-
066-073>075.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page