039
FXUS61 KILN 182315
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, DECREASING CLOUDS, AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT - MOST
IMPACTFUL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 25-30 KTS WILL OFFER FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER
EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. CAM SOLUTIONS
SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KTS SO DO NOT EXPECT GREAT
ORGANIZATION TO STORMS. DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG POINTING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE IS ALSO FOCUSED ON THE TRI-STATE REGION FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. PWAT VALUES INCREASE ABOVE 2 INCHES - SO HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AND
WILL MESSAGE THESE THREATS IN HWO PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
AN ACTIVE BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THRU MID WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE SUNDAY
THRU TUESDAY TIMEFRAME BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
OBSERVED THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. WITH CONVECTION NEAR
A QUASI-STATIONAY BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ALONG WITH HIGH
PWAT VALUES WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
AS A MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AT MID WEEK SOME LINGERING
SHOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HANDFUL OF MVFR CIGS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AS WE HEAD TOWARD DUSK. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INTRODUCE
RIVER VALLEY FOG AND SOME PATCHY OVERLAND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT LUK AND MVFR AT ILN AND LCK.
FOG WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING LIFTING INTO A VFR CUMULUS DECK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST IMPACTING THE TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAVE TIMED THIS IN
USING PROB30S.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT,
AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AIENA
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