680
FXUS61 KILN 110631
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY ALONG A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) TEMPERATURES PEAK ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN COOL BEHIND THE FRONT,
WARMING UP FRIDAY AND MORESO THIS COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A HIGH BASED CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY FOUND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL MAKE A STEADY PROGRESSION ESE,
COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK LOBE OF MID LEVEL S/W ENERGY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY, GENERALLY BEFORE DAYBREAK AND SOUTHEAST
OF AN OWENTON-MAYSVILLE LINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION WED MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT
TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
MORE MOIST AIR, ESPECIALLY ALONG A NARROW, SHORT-LIVED LLJET AROUND
50KT. THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE MOIST AIR AND A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO WORK THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
BY DAYBREAK, THIS LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES, COOLER AIR IN CENTRAL OH MAY HOLD ON TO LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT DEEPER CONVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST. THE TRANSIENT LINE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY FLOODING RISK.
SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM IN INTO OH DURING A
TIME OF THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS. MODELS ARE BULLISH PRODUCING
THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A WELL-DEFINED LINE
TELLS ME THAT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT ITS
PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT, STRONGER
FRONT WILL SEE A SLIGHT BUMP TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THEN,
EXPECT A COOLDOWN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY WARMER AIR
ON FRIDAY AND MORESO FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPS THIS COMING
WEEKEND SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VERY LITTLE IF ANY VARIABILITY ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR TODAY. 1-2
HOUR DIFFERENCES IN PRIMARY WIND DIRECTIONS AND THE OCCASION OF A
BKN VFR DECK IN THE AFTERNOON BREAKING UP IN THE EVENING ARE HARDLY
WORTH THE MENTION. A WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD BE FOUND ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER TOWARDS EVENING, BRINGING CVG/LUK MORE OF A VARIABLE DIRECTION
VERSUS THE BACKING NE DIRECTION FOUND FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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