066
FXUS61 KILN 132358
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
758 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST LATE. WIND FIELDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OR CALM UNDER THE
HIGH, THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER LL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT N THROUGH THE
WRN HALF OR SO OF THE ILN FA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BATTLING AGAINST SOME DEEP DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
MIXING, WHICH WILL ACT TO BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH NE KY. COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER
LL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 DEGREES) NEAR/W OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR, A STRAY SHRA CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT MOST, IF NOT ALL, SPOTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME.
FRIDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY, PARTICULARLY BY SEASONAL STANDARDS, AS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW ALONGSIDE A SUFFICIENTLY-DRY BL
ALLOWS FOR DEEP/EFFICIENT MIXING AMIDST A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. S WINDS OF 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS, CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR/NW OF I-71 BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE. A FEW 80-DEGREE READINGS ARE
LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, EVEN WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION WELL TO THE W OF THE ILN FA ACROSS
THE MID MS RVR VLY. THIS SEMI-LINEAR STORM COMPLEX WILL DRIFT TO THE
E INTO PARTS OF IN BY/PAST MIDNIGHT EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS (AFTER 3 AM) SATURDAY
MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE STORMS MOVING E INTO THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DOING SO IN A MUCH-
WEAKENED/DECAYED STATE FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS IS OWING TO
A LESS-FAVORABLE (DRIER) AIRMASS ENTRENCHED LOCALLY AS WELL AS THE
FACT THAT THE STORMS WILL BE OUTRUNNING THEIR SOURCE FORCING. FCST
SOUNDINGS BOTH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF, AND IN, THE LOCAL AREA VERY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE RATHER UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS LOCALLY, DESPITE THE INTENSE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR
THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, AS WELL AS THE
LL MOISTURE PROFILE, WILL BE MEAGER AT BEST, SUGGESTING THAT ANY
STRONG/STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE, SHOULD IT EVOLVE AT ALL. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS /COULD/ BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR THE
ONSET OF PCPN TO HELP TRANSLATE STRONGER WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SFC
TO THE GROUND BEFORE THE BL HAS A CHANCE TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY A CONCERN GIVING THE DRYING OF THE BL EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A SOMEWHAT MIXED BL WELL INTO
THE NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DECAYING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY, BUT THE TEMPORAL/SPATIAL EXTENT OF THIS
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
CONSIDERED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE DECAYING PCPN MOVES INTO
THE AREA, BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTIES THAT DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF AT THIS MOMENT AND CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THROUGH THE HWO AND OTHER
MEANS.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM,
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE E TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE W.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE, GENERALLY FOUND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. STRONG
AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL ENERGIZE THE MOISTURE AS
A NORTHWARD MOVING UPPER LOW IN THE MIDWEST MAINTAINS THIS STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODELS ARE SPLIT IN WHEN ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW WILL INITIATE THE NEXT AND MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE NOON HOUR SEEMS TO BE THE CUTOFF FROM THE LULL IN MORNING STORMS
AND THE INCOMING/DEVELOPING AREA OF RAIN ENTERING SOUTHWEST CWA,
GENERALLY S AND W OF WILMINGTON WITH LITTLE FOUND OUTSIDE OF THESE
BOUNDS. A FAIRLY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN FORECAST OF LONGER RANGE
MODELS BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. SOME SHORTER RANGE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF
H5 VORTICITY, KEEPING IT ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO THROUGH 00Z SUN,
THEN SPREADING IT RAPIDLY NORTH AND BECOMING CONSISTENT WITH THE
OTHER MODELS. ESSENTIALLY, THERE IS A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY THE
ONSET OF RAIN COULD HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY, WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MILD AND BREEZY DAY VERSUS A RAINOUT.
WHENEVER THE RAIN DOES START, IT WILL BE A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS
MODERATE RAINFALL RATE AND PRODUCE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF US.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-35 MPH AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HOW THE TIMING OF RAIN PLAYS OUT. AN EARLY START
WILL LIMIT ANY INSOLATION AND SPREAD THE DYNAMIC INFLUENCES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY IN A MORE EVEN FASHION, LIMITING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CONVERSELY, A LATER START WILL ALLOW SOME HEATING AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING RAIN, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED UNDERNEATH A
NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LOBE OF VORTICITY. THIS ADDED DYNAMIC FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT INTERACTIONS AND THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL NUISANCE FLOODING FROM THE
SAT/SAT NIGHT SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL NOTABLY DROP WITH LITTLE ~5
DEGREE RECOVERY FROM 12Z LOW TEMPS. A STEADY/SLOW DROP IS MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA RUNNING SOMEWHAT
NORTHEAST TO WEST OF METRO DAYTON.
MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S. A MODERATE RISE IN HIGHS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE THEM
REACH BACK TO 65-70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIR
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
RATHER LIGHT OR CALM WINDS.
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND WILL GUST
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST GUIDANCE ARRIVING
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING HAS BACKED OFF THE LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO CONTINUED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE
EXTENDED CVG TAF PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING, SO HAVE INTRODUCED THIS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR INCLUSION IN THE REST OF THE AREA TAFS
FOR NEXT ISSUANCE AT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...LLWS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KTS LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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