923
FXUS61 KILN 221837
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SCATTERED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SOME TALL
UPDRAFTS THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 11,000 FT WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
SOME SMALL HAIL TO DEVELOP IN SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL NEAR 1" CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE TALLEST STORMS, BUT
THAT THREAT WILL BE MORE LIMITED. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, ENDING BY 7-8 PM FOR OUR CWA.
NOTE THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
WELL. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUCH THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT SOME OF THE HYDRO CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, IF A LOCATION WHERE TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OR HAD SOME BRIEF BACKBUILDING, MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ENSUE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST STORM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS KILN NEAR 18Z, BUT
KCMH/KLCK WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE COMING HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THE TALLEST STORMS, WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WSW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SURFACE
WINDS TURN WNW'LY AND REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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