036
FXUS61 KILN 151038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.
IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE
NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A WARMER AIR MASS SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE LOWER 40S WEST.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT A FEW DECAYING
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ACT TO SLOW THE WARMUP. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
A PERIOD OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS DEVELOPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SATURDAY VARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 90S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER 90S - ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES AND 8H
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NBM HIGHS COOLER TO REACH THESE SOLUTIONS.
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO OFFER SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. A FASTER FRONT WOULD REDUCE THE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY, AND A SLOWER FRONT SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY RESULTS IN
COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND
SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER,
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BE
IN A DECAYING STATE BUT WILL OFFER A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA, SOUTHWEST OHIO, AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE QUITE DRY SO SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY END UP AS
SPRINKLES.
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS INTO THE WEST LATE. WITHIN THE WARM
ASCENT REGION, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM SATURDAY MORNING
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. MOST OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
25-30 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAS
LED TO SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AT KLUK. SOME ADDITIONAL
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A TEMPO SHRA
MENTION AT KCVG AND KLUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BUT ANY IMPACT WILL
BE LIMITED WITH PCPN BEING VERY LIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARD SUNRISE
SATURDAY. HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEST AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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