682  
FXUS61 KILN 201040  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
540 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH WINTER  
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS  
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR  
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUING MONDAY. AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TEMPERATURES  
WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE OH VLY TO PIVOT NORTHEAST WITH A  
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION TODAY.  
 
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KY OVER WEST VIRGINIA TO TRACK  
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EAST.  
THIS BAND OF SNOW IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST AND WILL END  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ADDITIONAL  
INCH POSSIBLE. HAVE ENDED ALL HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND ICE  
EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE SNOW CONTINUES.  
 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE  
NE AND ARCTIC AIR SETTLING IN.  
 
STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15  
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WHERE DAYTIME READINGS HAVE AN EARLY  
HIGH NEAR 20 IN THE FAR SOUTH...READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE  
TEENS TODAY.  
 
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW  
ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. AS TEMPERATURE FALL  
LATE IN THE DAY THE COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE TEMPERATURES  
AND WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -10 BELOW NORTH  
LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE  
COLD WIND CHILLS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA  
MONDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. WITH FRESH SNOW  
COVER HAVE LOWS AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH THE SINGLE  
DIGITS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WIND CHILLS ARE AS COLD AS 10 TO 20  
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE  
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE COLD WIND CHILLS.  
 
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF  
SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT  
HIGHS FROM NEAR 10 NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES EAST WHILE THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES OHIO. LOW  
PRESSURE TRAVELING TO THE GREAT LAKES, PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM STRENGTH AND MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, SUGGESTING  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.  
 
FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, A BROAD AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL  
BECOME DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
A LACK OF MAJOR SURFACE FEATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT  
HEAVY PRECIP, THOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON A CYCLONIC  
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
BOOSTED BY WARM ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT ABOVE  
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, REACHING THE 30S AND 40S. AS  
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS PLUMMET AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW EXHIBITS A  
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, READINGS WILL PLUNGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,  
WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PA TO CONTINUE TRACKING OFF TO  
THE EAST TODAY. FAVORABLE AXIS OF DEFORMATION SNOW HAS SHIFTED  
EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW  
AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
MVFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR  
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS  
LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY  
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ081-082-  
088.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ064-  
065-073-074.  
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ099-100.  
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY  
FOR INZ050-058-059-066.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR  
NEAR TERM...AR  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO  
AVIATION...AR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page