399
FXUS61 KILN 160631
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
231 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CURRENTLY ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
INDIANA WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
WITH A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA, EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT, WILL JUST ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MAINLY OUR WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
WE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD
AND RANGE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM 40-50 PERCENT IN THE EAST TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING
SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT ANY SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS OUR EAST TO BE LIMITED.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING, THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW
WELL WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE. AS OF NOW, IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO
START NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO
POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW
MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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