048
FXUS61 KILN 041817
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DISCUSSED THE SIGNAL FOR A HOT AND HUMID PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS SETTLES IN NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
EPISODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A DECAYING LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR A LATER ONSET OF
ANY RESIDUAL PCPN, WHICH MAY ARRIVE IN OUR COUNTIES A COUPLE HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. LIMITED (IF ANY) THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED WITH THIS WEAKENING COMPLEX. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL
BE NW OF I-71 CORRIDOR.
THE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE SEVERE RISK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON COVERAGE
AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. SEVERAL MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING A GOOD REBOUND IN ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SBCAPE VALUES COULD CERTAINLY INCREASE
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR STILL REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR,
MINIMIZING OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIKELY KEEPING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ISOLATED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
BOUNDARY MAY STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SUNDAY, WHICH
WOULD KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO INTO
KENTUCKY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS QUITE CHAOTIC WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN H5 RIDGE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS KEPT THIS RIDGE
FAIRLY BROAD/EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BUT LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS RIDGE WILL BE A LOT MORE NARROW. GIVEN THE MODIFICATION
OF THIS RIDGE, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA. THE H5 RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR
MASS TO BUILD IN, RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE NEARBY
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE NOT EVERY DAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT, SEVERAL DAYS MAY HAVE AT LEAST OF CHANCE
FOR PCPN IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS. ULTIMATELY, THE EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
AND PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KLUK AS THE AIR MASS
TURNS MORE HUMID AND WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. MAINTAINED JUST AN MVFR VSBY
REDUCTION THERE BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. EXPECTING
MORE CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-
060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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