869
FXUS61 KILN 170210
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD
FROST IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA. IN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CAA, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL HELP PREVENT
FROST FORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING DRY AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER OHIO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS SOMEWHAT AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORE SHELTERED AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHARP MID LEVEL TROF TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU 06Z AND THEN PCPN WILL TAPER
OFF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES BUT COVERAGE OF THESE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROF. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE TROF
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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