089
FXUS61 KILN 220944
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
544 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATER TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID
70S THIS AFTERNOON, SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITIES WILL DEVELOP
WITH SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE
BETTER BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST BY THIS
TIME, LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. AS A RESULT, IF WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, SUPPOSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT EAST INTO
OUR AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS MINIMAL TOO AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST.
A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND/OR THE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, BUT TIMING AND THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DETERMINE THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR OUR REGION.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. AS
WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO. FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL,
BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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