518
FXUS61 KILN 091104
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
604 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO
ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OH THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER PAST SUNRISE.
2) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORKWEEK, WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK IN BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A NARROW NW-TO-SE BAND OF 6-8KFT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
FROM THE TRI-STATE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL OH PAST SUNRISE. WITH THIS IN MIND, SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND
NORTHEAST KY THROUGH DAYBREAK. A DEEP SNOW PACK, COMBINED WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY SFC FLOW LESS THAN 5KTS, WILL YIELD FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AND SHELTERED LOCALES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OH TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE TRI-
STATE INTO ERN IN. MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND ZERO IN CENTRAL OH TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN THE TRI-
STATE INTO ERN IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT TODAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NEAR/N OF I-70 TO THE MID 50S NEAR/S
OF THE OH RVR TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER/MID 30S NEAR/N OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR/S OF THE
OH RVR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME. THERE WILL ONLY BE
SOME 5-7KFT CIGS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING AND PUSHING OFF TO THE E OF THE AREA BY 21Z. SKIES
SHOULD TREND CLEARER BY 21Z FROM SW TO NE, WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS THIS
EVENING.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASING LOW-LEVEL (NEAR-GROUND) MOISTURE
TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z TUESDAY, WITH BR/FG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS, BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST
HOW WIDESPREAD THE BR/FG BECOMES PRIOR TO 12Z, BUT CERTAINLY SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
DEVELOPMENT. SOME SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 45KTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z-16Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IFR
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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