448
FXUS61 KILN 131925
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BLOWING DUST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL
DIMINISH AS WINDS DECREASE.
2) BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE.
3) A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BLOWING DUST IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL
DIMINISH AS WINDS DECREASE.
STRONG PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AND THUS WINDS AND GUSTS
SHOULD BE PEAKING AS WELL. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST AND
WEAKENS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE. WHILE
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WELL INTO THE EVENING, THEY WILL BE
SUBSIDING, DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
LATE TONIGHT.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO
WHERE SOILS ARE DRY. UPON FURTHER CONSIDERATION, HAVE DECIDED TO PUT
A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY OUT. AS WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE, THE POTENTIAL
TO LOFT DUST WILL DIMINISH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2) BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL AMPLIFY AS IT HEAD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS THE NEWLY CLOSED
OFF LOW LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST. THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL SUITE IN REGARDS TO THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST AT THAT TIME OF DAY, BUT WITH VERY STRONG
WIND FIELDS THERE REMAINS A CONCERN IF ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN
OCCUR.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING WINDS. PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE ARE
OVER 80 PERCENT ON SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3) A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA EARLY MONDAY. MON
HIGH TEMPS WILL = SUN NIGHT LOWS, WITH FALLING READINGS THROUGH THE
DAY. COLUMBUS AND EASTERN CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR A PART OF THE MORNING, BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE TREND - FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY BUT STARTING ABOUT 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN WESTERN CWA AND DAY/CVG
METRO AREAS. THERE REMAINS SOME BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, DEPENDENT ON THE TIME OF THE FROPA. HIGH END TEMPS (AGAIN
IN THE MORNING) ARE CAPPED AT 51-DAY, 47-CVG, AND UPPER 50S-CMH. LOW
END VALUES ARE NEAR 30 FOR ALL METRO AREAS. FORECAST (NBM SOLUTION)
LOOKS TO BE FAVORING A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PASSAGE AND MORNING TEMPS
ABOUT 2 DEG LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE UNCERTAINTY LOOKS TO BE DUE TO
OUTLYING MODELS BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE NBM FORECAST, WHICH IS A
KNOWN FEATURE AND ONE OF THE PITFALLS OF USING AN ENSEMBLE FORECAST.
DEEP NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR. LOWS MON AND TUES NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MON ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S. WED SHOULD REACH INTO
THE MID 40S, BUT AGAIN THIS IS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST AND THE
MOST LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED AS TIME MOVES FORWARD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS REMAIN THE CONCERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY TO START WITH A GRADUAL SUBSIDING
TOWARDS 0Z, DECREASING FURTHER AFTER THAT. GUSTS WILL END OVERNIGHT
AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT BEFORE 12Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ070-071-073-074-
077>082-088.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
035.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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