047
FXUS61 KILN 202349
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A LATE-
DEVELOPING STORM FROM CENTRAL OHIO SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
THE 12Z CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS WERE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE A NARROW
FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE 3KM NAM. HOWEVER, THE LATEST (16Z)
HRRR DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 00Z, MOSTLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 30-35 KNOTS, TIMING LEADS TO A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ELEVATED STORMS (PER A 02Z SIMULATED SOUNDING
IN PIKE COUNTY OHIO), WITH PERHAPS A REMNANT HAIL RISK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. THIS, ALONG WITH A
HEALTHY SURFACE-BASED INVERSION COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS OFF
LAKE ERIE ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL OHIO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHERE
SKIES CAN CLEAR, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, SO
GUSTY WINDS AND A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
ON TIMING OF FROPA, RANGING FROM EARLY EVENING TO NEAR MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS... THOUGH A CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTION. A STRONG WIND
FIELD AND GOOD FORCING (AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S FRONT) WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THEY ARE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL OH THIS
EVENING. KCMH/KLCK HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. FOR NOW, JUST INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THOSE TERMINALS TO INDICATE SHRA
POTENTIAL. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A RAPID WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH, AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD LOWER (STILL VFR)
CLOUDS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS DO EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE, WHICH COULD
HELP RESULT IN SOME MVFR VSBYS AS PATCHY BR DEVELOPS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS CLIPPING KCMH/KLCK NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY FOR A FEW
HOURS.
HAVE A COUPLE EXTRA TAF LINES ON FRIDAY FOR THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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