714
FXUS61 KILN 071752
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK FRONT BISECTING ILN'S AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE WITH AN AXIS OF PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES POOLED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-1750 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED ZONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE. SHEAR IS VERY LOW WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 10 KTS OR LESS. WITH
A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TURN EASTWARD
TUESDAY, MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE 3.5KM TO 4KM. AS THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURNS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO ILN/S WESTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
OFFER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VLY WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS RIDGE LATER IN
THE WEEK WITH A PROGRESSIVE BROAD TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET VERY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
READINGS POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS WARM, ALTHOUGH
STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID 80S FOR HIGHS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK FRONT BISECTING ILN'S AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS
IN PLACE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL BUT THE CENTRAL
OHIO TAF SITES. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
LATE TONIGHT IF CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, BUT PROBABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION AT THE KCVG 30
HOUR TAF SITE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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