741  
FXUS61 KILN 191736  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN  
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAVELING TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.  
MORE SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A VIGOROUS COLD  
FRONT ON SATURDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD  
FRONT FOR SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE REGION  
TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES LATER TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. BACKED OFF ON TIMING BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL  
BLEND. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME AND SOME WIND GUSTS  
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE BOOSTED BY  
WARM ADVECTION MIXING, REACHING THE LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH  
THROUGH AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THIS PUSHES  
THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS STAY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND  
INDICATE THAT LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PART OF  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING  
HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70  
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS. A VERY PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS  
TIME. THERE IS A PV ANOMALY WITH A CONCENTRATED MAXIMUM IN THE  
1.5 PV PRESSURE LEVEL WITHIN THE PV ANOMALY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY  
PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BAND OF  
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN, HOWEVER COULD  
SEE SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW MIX IN. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE GUSTY  
BEFORE THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL MIX DOWN PRETTY  
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE OPPORTUNITY NUMBER ONE FOR THE AREA,  
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, TO REACH WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA WINDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE STRONG CAA  
WORKS INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY START TO  
DROP. LOOKING AT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE WILL BE A  
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE OPPORTUNITY  
NUMBER TWO FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA (31 MPH SUSTAINED OR 46MPH GUSTS).  
 
THE PV ANOMALY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AND  
WITH ADDED WIND TRAJECTORY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THERE WILL BE  
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE  
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND  
SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ENDING WITH A LITTLE BIT  
OF SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE  
GRADIENT RELAXES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL DURING THE  
DAY EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH  
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT  
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE  
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT, THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE  
WAY OF CLOUDS AS THIS PASSES. ANY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING WILL LAG THE  
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
THAT BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE ON  
THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOP  
UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A BATCH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE,  
WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. FOR  
SATURDAY, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE UNFAVORABLE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER WHILE STAYING VFR  
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE AIR COLUMN  
MOISTENS BY AROUND 24Z, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AT ALL SITES.  
CEILINGS WILL THEN FALL TO MVFR EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING  
AS LOW AS IFR LATER TONIGHT UNDER NEAR SATURATION OF THE LOWER  
ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY AS  
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A SHORT TIME.  
 
IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, AND  
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP  
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CVG WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE  
STRONGEST WIND IMPACTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF  
THEIR 30 HOUR TAF, WHEN GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL BE PROBABLE,  
WHILE SHOWERS RETURN.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG  
WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH WIND  
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK  
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/NOVAK  
SHORT TERM...NOVAK  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...CONIGLIO  
 
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