741
FXUS61 KILN 191736
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAVELING TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
MORE SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD
FRONT FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE REGION
TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES LATER TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. BACKED OFF ON TIMING BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
BLEND. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME AND SOME WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE BOOSTED BY
WARM ADVECTION MIXING, REACHING THE LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
THROUGH AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THIS PUSHES
THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS STAY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
INDICATE THAT LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PART OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A VERY PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME. THERE IS A PV ANOMALY WITH A CONCENTRATED MAXIMUM IN THE
1.5 PV PRESSURE LEVEL WITHIN THE PV ANOMALY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE RAIN, HOWEVER COULD
SEE SOME GRAUPEL OR SNOW MIX IN. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE GUSTY
BEFORE THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL MIX DOWN PRETTY
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE OPPORTUNITY NUMBER ONE FOR THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE STRONG CAA
WORKS INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY START TO
DROP. LOOKING AT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS, THERE WILL BE A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE OPPORTUNITY
NUMBER TWO FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA (31 MPH SUSTAINED OR 46MPH GUSTS).
THE PV ANOMALY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING AND
WITH ADDED WIND TRAJECTORY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ENDING WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF SNOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL DURING THE
DAY EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IN FACT, THERE MAY BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS AS THIS PASSES. ANY SUBSTANTIAL COOLING WILL LAG THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THAT BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BATCH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY, ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE,
WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. FOR
SATURDAY, A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE UNFAVORABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER WHILE STAYING VFR
DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THE AIR COLUMN
MOISTENS BY AROUND 24Z, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN AT ALL SITES.
CEILINGS WILL THEN FALL TO MVFR EARLY TONIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING
AS LOW AS IFR LATER TONIGHT UNDER NEAR SATURATION OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR A SHORT TIME.
IN ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CVG WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST WIND IMPACTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF
THEIR 30 HOUR TAF, WHEN GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL BE PROBABLE,
WHILE SHOWERS RETURN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG
WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
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