816
FXUS61 KILN 251805
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP YET AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT ANY
OVERLAND FOG WILL BE SHALLOW/LIMITED.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE OHIO VALLY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ILN WILL BE PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL OBSERVE A BIT OF AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE BASED ON
TIMING. SOME CAMS TRY TO USHER IN CONVECTION INTO PORTIONS OF
MERCER/AUGLAIZE COUNTIES AROUND 7-8 PM, WHICH IS JUST PRIOR TO AN
INVERSION DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE. WITH MODEST CAPE VALUES NEAR
1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS DURING THAT PERIOD,
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING A SECONDARY
THREAT. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW OF OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN THE MIAMI VALLEY, PERHAPS SOME OF
SE IN) BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SE OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF
OUR CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRIMARY EXCEPTION IS AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT ONLY HAVE AN MVFR VSBY REDUCTION THERE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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