595
FXUS61 KILN 281912
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
312 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT, SEVERAL OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO PROGRESS EAST
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED. IT SHOULD START OUR MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MOIST LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LEVEL JET. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AT FIRST. THEN, ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
MAY PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR WEST
TOWARD MORNING. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
SUNRISE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER). AFTER A WARM DAY
TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 60S DUE
TO WIND AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL S/WV WILL MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, IT APPEARS THAT A MID LEVEL S/WV, LIKELY AN MCV, WILL EJECT
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ITS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELD TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN
INCREASING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE ARE SOME COVERAGE AND TIMING
ISSUES AMONGST THE CAMS. HOWEVER, THE PREDOMINATE SOLUTION IS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING ACROSS OUR WEST FROM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST MODERATE MLCAPE
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH (MAX AROUND 1500 J/KG).
THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST
MODERATE SHEAR, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY
IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CAN GET GOING
BEFORE THE CONVECTION CONGLOMERATES. IT WILL BE BREEZY OUTSIDE OF
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 MPH SOUTH TO 35 MPH NORTH.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH INTO THE EVENING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS, AND OVERALL WILL WANE
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL VARY, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY... THEN
DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
HEADING INTO THURSDAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO KEEP AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, BY
THURSDAY, WE WILL SEE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE DROPPING A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS VARYING FROM
ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
FOR OVERNIGHT, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF LLWS. MOIST FLOW WILL BE
INCREASING AS WELL, AND IN THE WAA, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENCROACH WESTERN TERMINALS BY 12Z.
ON TUESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS TO BECOME THE IMPETUS/FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z, AND THEN IT SHOULD PROPAGATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PROB30S HAVE BEEN USED WITH
PREDOMINATE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE WEST AROUND 18Z. IT WILL
BE BREEZY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TOWARD
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES AS WELL AS DECOUPLING OF WINDS ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING IN PROBABILITY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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