848
FXUS61 KILN 261039
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
RECENT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDLY TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND CONTINUE
THRU THE MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING.
WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH TO START THE WEEK WHILE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
A COUPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEK. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TONIGHT. A CLUSTER
OF STORMS/MCS MAY FORM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING DIVING
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR
WEST WHICH WOULD LIKELY FAVOR ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM DIVING SOUTH
INTO INDIANA AND ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF SOME INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA ALLOWS
A LOW END CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE SEVERE RISK WITH ANY STORMS
TONIGHT IS MARGINAL SINCE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND ELEVATED.
THE SECOND, AND MUCH BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS IS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN CLUSTERS OF STORMS/MCSS MAY FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEFORE DIVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
DETAILS ON PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING.
MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON HOW MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT PLAYS OUT. AT THE TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY IS MONDAY NIGHT. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS/MCSS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD LEAD TO THE HEAT
INDEX REACHING THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE IF CONVECTION DOES NOT
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG HAS SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT MUCH TOO LOW A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KILN AND IFR
AT FOG PRONE KLUK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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