964
FXUS61 KILN 011037
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS WITH A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT AND FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. A LOWER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS SUNDAY.
2) OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS THAT HAVE CROSSED THE CWA TO THE ENE EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
PRODUCED A TRACE OF RAINFALL AND ARE JUST PREPPING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AT TIMES, AND THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA THAT ARE NOT CURRENTLY PRESENT TO BE
TIMED WITH ANY CERTAINTY. TORNADIC THREAT IS DUE TO CLOSELY SPACED
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AT THE SURFACE AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST
ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST, AND
ARE DEFINITELY PUT US IN A DRY SLOT OVERNIGHT, BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.
THE MOST CONCERNING TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS THE
AREA. THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
LCLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOW. WHILE THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES TO OCCUR IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR TORNADOES WILL BE
EASTERN INDIANA, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER DCAPE
REMAINS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE THE SAME AREA AS
TORNADOES, ALIGNED WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM STRUCTURES. STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING, AND SOME FEW AREAS MAY BE HIT WITH TRAINING
STORMS THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION FROM THE
SAME SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE HOCKING HILLS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN A HIGH STATE OF UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH
A NUMBER OF MODELS SHOW IT CROSSING THE CWA MONDAY AND THEN
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT DOESN'T EXIT UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE CWA AND REGION ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND A LOWERING CLOUD BASE WITH INFREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CWA AND WILL REACH CENTRAL OH AND
CMH/LCK LATER THIS MORNING. PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN A STATE OF HIGH UNCERTAINTY. WILL BE
PROACTIVE IN AMENDING TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND
THE HERE AND NOW.
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO 8-12KT. ONE THING
NOTED IN THE MODELS WAS A DRY SLOT OVER THE CWA WORKING IN FOR THE
EVENING, EXPANDING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. EVEN GIVEN THIS
CONSENSUS, SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND NEARBY AND STAND A LOW CHANCE OF
AFFECTING PRIMARILY DAY AND CMH/LCK OVERNIGHT.
AS THE DRY SLOT COMES IN, CLOUDS WILL LOWER UNDERNEATH IT AND BRING
A LOW END MVFR TO IFR OVC CLOUD DECK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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