610
FXUS61 KILN 121128
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, WITH
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW WARMUP INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH RAIN LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SLOW WARMUP INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH RAIN LIKELY ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A MODEST
WARMUP BEGINS ON FRIDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG NEAR DAYBREAK
MAINLY IN THE TRI STATE AND INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. FRIDAY BEGINS A
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO BRING RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM AT PRECIP ONSET TO MITIGATE
CONCERN FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN, COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES
COULD YIELD A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS/SLEET.
THROUGH SUNDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS REACH CLOSE TO 50 FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO ACCUMULATE MORE THAN
A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS CONFINED TO MAINLY CENTRAL KENTUCKY, THOUGH
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KY/SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED A
HALF INCH.
ONCE THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASE FROM THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KLUK ON THE EDGE OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND BOUNCING AROUND A BIT, SO
HAVE INCLUDED AN MVFR TEMPO IFR THROUGH 14Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY, WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH SOME
PIVOTING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE STILL REMAINING
LESS THAN 05KTS.
STRATUS DECK FINALLY PUSHING EAST OF KCMH/KLCK, SO WILL LINGER A
SCATTERED MENTION. WITH RESIDUAL LOWER LAYER MOISTURE, SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPING VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON AT THESE SITE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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