393
FXUS61 KILN 191137
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGES. ADDED A MENTION OF FOG TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING LOW/TROF AS 5H
JET OF 90-100 KTS ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.
IN THE WAA FIELD AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO PIVOT THRU ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BE
SEVERE.
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (EASTERN INDIANA, NORTH CENTRAL KY
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO ) BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 60 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 250-750 J/KG.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT - SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OCCURRING
BETWEEN 5PM AND 10PM.
ALSO, PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL - ESPECIALLY IN
THE TRI-STATE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE - GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND A MOIST GROUND, IF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS
AN AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THE INDICATION THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY MAY ONLY
EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDS DECREASE INTO THE EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT IN HWO AND ONE-PAGER.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE DEEP SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE (SUB 990 MB) TO THE NORTHWEST LEADING TO AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. APPLYING MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TECHNIQUE TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDS WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON - WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO. NBM SOLUTION LOOKS A
LITTLE LOW WHICH TENDS TO BE OBSERVED IN CAA CASES SO INCREASED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 5 KTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA FOG AND STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILN/S FA (NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN OHIO) WHERE
SKIES HAD CLEARED. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING NORTH. AT THE SAME
TIME A CANOPY OF THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WAS STREAMING INTO THE
NORTHERN FA. THIS MAY WORK TO INHIBIT THE RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY.
HAVE ALLOWED THE STRATUS AND FOG TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AND ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE FORECAST BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE MENTION OF DENSE FOG. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA
ON THE WARM SIDE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO
THE UPPER 60S SOUTH. RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE RATHER WARM AND LOOK SAFE
- CVG 74 SET 1939, DAY 70 SET 1939, CMH 70 SET IN 1939 AND 2018.
KEY MESSAGE 3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST US, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WILL OFFER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S, DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY THE RULE WITH VISIBILITIES VARYING AND
BOUNCING FROM LIFR TO IFR. THE WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAFS THRU MID
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 23Z TO 05Z. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KT ARE LIKELY BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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