903
FXUS61 KILN 221424
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HEAT AND HUMID WILL INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE CENTER OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE CONTINUES THRU THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE CAM
SOLUTIONS PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 500H RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT WILL BE BEGINNING
THE PROCESS OF FLATTENING OUT THANKS TO WAVES MOVING THROUGH CANADA.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING TO INTRODUCE
SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR DIURNAL POPS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-70. DESPITE THIS, THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCER AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO REACH THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S. AS
SUCH, HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM SIGNAL.
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING REACH ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST, GIVEN THE INTRODUCTION
OF POPS AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH/RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES TREND A TAD COOLER.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW AFTERNOON CU WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-
051-053-060>062-070>072-077-078.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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