138
FXUS63 KIWX 192351
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. LOW BUT NON-ZERO RISK FOR HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
- WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- COOLER AND DRY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARRIVE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS
WILL SWING EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REGION IS WELL INTO THE
WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORTS SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
MINIMAL TODAY. DESTABILIZATION IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE 3-9 PM EDT TODAY. THE GREATEST
RISK AREA WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE. SHEAR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK GIVEN A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE, BUT IT WILL BE BETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 20 TO
30 KTS. WITH WEAKER SHEAR, THE FAVORED STORM MODE WILL BE
MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8 C/KM, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TORNADO CHANCES IS DECREASING DUE TO
CURRENT LOW LEVEL SRH LESS THAN 150 M2/S2, AND FORECAST TO
DECREASE TODAY. IF ONE WERE TO DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
GREATEST IN NW OHIO, WHICH WILL HAVE THE LONGEST TIME TO HEAT UP
AND DESTABILIZE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH PWATS NOW AROUND 1.5-1.6", EVEN IF
STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT SEVERE, THEY WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OF US-24 ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
THEN BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE COULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MEMORIAL DAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF US-30, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR SO THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA HAVE SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PUSHES
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. POSITION OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY
FLOW AT TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST GUST POTENTIAL (AT
OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS) AT KSBN WHERE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MAY GAIN
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER INTENSITY FROM COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.
SOME VFR CLOUDS OF 3-4K FEET MAY DEVELOP WITH FRONTAL INVERSION
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...MARSILI
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