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FXUS63 KIWX 300420
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1220 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
(30-40%) OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH MODERATION CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FROST MAY IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
EVENING. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING EASTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGH. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE.
SOME HIGHER COVERAGE POPS WERE MAINTAINED A BIT LONGER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS. THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR REINFORCING PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA TONIGHT, BUT THIS
SHOULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING IN PLACE IN COMBINATION
WITH CLOUD COVER TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A
COOLER AND MUCH LESS ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR MORE.
THAT'S NOT TO SAY THERE ISN'T A FEW ITEMS TO LOOK AT, BUT IN
COMPARISON TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IT IS A WELCOME BREATHER.
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL HELP KEEP PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL AS
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND NOT CAUSE ANY CONCERNS WITH THE HYDRO ISSUES
STILL IN PLAY FOR SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY (AND
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL) FOR LATE APRIL AND IN COMPARISON TO RECENT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE 30S, CLOUD COVER, LIGHT PRECIP AND A MODEST BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT
ANY FROST POTENTIAL.
A SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT ADDITIONAL CAA AND MORE IMPORTANTLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL
AS DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NE POSSIBLY GOING BELOW FREEZING
FOR A LIGHT FREEZE. TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES, BUT SUSPECT AT
LEAST A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED AT SOME POINT WITH MAYBE A
NEED FOR A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING. THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH AND SOME
MODERATION BACK TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (60S) ARRIVE.
DISTURBANCES WILL STILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN THROUGH DAYBREAK AT KFWA,
WHILE LATEST SATELLITE/OB TRENDS SHOWING THIS CLOUD DECK ALREADY
CLEARING KSBN TO THE EAST. COULD SEE THIS FILL BACK IN FOR A
TIME HERE EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. PRIMARILY VFR THEN AT BOTH SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN SHOWERS AND
REDUCTIONS BACK INTO LOW VFR OR MVFR THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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