819
FXUS63 KIWX 261550
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1150 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS GIVEN BLOCKING/DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH BRINGS COOL/DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE LOW/MID 70S WITH COOL MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY) BUT OVERALL SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT GIVEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED A BIT
MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION THAT
SUPPORTED FOG/STRATUS IN OUR SE THIS MORNING. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR
MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG FOR NOW BUT
A PATCHY MENTION MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
PATTERN FINALLY SHIFTS BY LATE TUE AS STRONG PACIFIC UPPER JET MOVES
ACROSS CANADA AND FORCES SOME PROGRESSION IN THE AFORMENTIONED
FEATURES. NEW ENGLAND UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS, REPLACED BY OUR
PRESENT RIDGE. THIS YIELDS INCREASING SW FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
(INCREASINGLY ORPHANED) SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT BRINGS OUR FIRST
CHANCE OF RAIN BY WED, THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH GIVEN RAPID LOSS
OF MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. THIS FRONT STALLS OVER OUR REGION AS ATTENTION
TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW THAT SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLVES AND THIS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
RAIN/STORMS ALONG THE DOWNSTREAM WARM FRONT. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES
TO CONCENSUS INITIALIZATION WHICH HAS 30-60 POP'S FOR THE ENTIRE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE IN OUR CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
PATCH OF STRATUS THAT ADVECTED FROM NW OHIO AND IMPACTED KFWA
FOR A FEW HOURS HAS DISSIPATED. REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
FEATURE LIGHT WINDS AND AT MOST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER
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