012
FXUS63 KIWX 310528
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1228 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT LA PORTE
COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST BERRIEN COUNTY TONIGHT.
- SNOW TOTALS AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL VARY NOTABLY OVER SMALL
DISTANCES. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS, TRAVEL WILL BE
HAZARDOUS WITHIN THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.
- WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING NEAR -10 TO -15
AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 20S STARTING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN A RELENTLESS LIGHT-SNOW PRODUCER
TODAY. SYNOPTIC LIFT VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A WRAPPED-UP 500-
MB JET HAS BEEN A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
COLUMN WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO FADE SOUTH, NOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30, WHILE THE
MAIN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IL.
THIS EVENING, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE THE LAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH, SPARKING AN AREA OF LIGHT, SYNOPTIC, SNOW ALONG WITH
STREAMS OF LAKE EFFECT. WE ANTICIPATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT
BACK TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SPILL ONSHORE OVER LA PORTE AND
BERRIEN COUNTIES. WHILE NOT QUITE A SLAM-DUNK (CAMS CONTINUE TO
WAVER), ENOUGH EVIDENCE POINTS TO A QUICK HITTING DOSE OF HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER IL AND FAR NORTHWEST
IN TODAY, VERY STRONG LIFT THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPROACHING 8K FT (COULD BE BETTER), ALONG
WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, INDICATE A HIGH LIKIHOOD OF 1-2"
RATES OF FLUFFY SNOW. TRAVEL IN THIS KEY TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR
WILL BECOME DANGEROUS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. BERRIEN COUNTY WAS
CONSIDERED FOR AN ADVISORY AS WELL, BUT A VERY SMALL SLIVER OF
THE COUNTY COULD BE IMPACTED BY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW (E.G.,
GRAND BEACH, NEW BUFFALO, UNION PIER). SHOULD THE BAND SHIFT
EAST INTO OUR AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH, TOTALS WILL EXCEED THE
ADVERTISED 2-4 INCHES. SNOW SHIFTS WEST OF LA PORTE COUNTY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND WEAKENS.
ONE ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF NOTE TONIGHT ARE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO
-15. THE AREA OF INTEREST IS FROM PUTNAM COUNTY OHIO, SOUTHWEST
TO GRANT COUNTY INDIANA. INCOMING CLOUD COVER WITH THE
AFORMENTIONED TROUGH DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A
FORECAST ALREADY RIGHT-AT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
-15F WIND CHILL. GIVEN THE PROLONGED COLD PATTERN, UNCERTAIN
DURATION, AND SATURDAY MORNING TIMING, HAVE DECLINED HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL SEE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR
CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO BREEZE THROUGH (MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY), FOLLOWED BY A LARGER STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
MICHIGAN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IN
THE SINGLE- DIGITS AT TIMES, "WARMING" INTO THE LOW-TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH ADDED LAKE COMPONENT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING SOME BRIEF MODERATE SNOW AT KSBN. CONFIDENCE IN
MODERATE SNOW IS NOT HIGH AS THE MAIN BAND MAY SET UP JUST WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY 12Z BUT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKES HURON/ERIE WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME
MVFR STRATUS AT KFWA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FUEL-ALTERNATE
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO THAT LOW WITH CEILINGS. VFR FOR BOTH TERMINALS
EXPECTED BY SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND
LAKE EFFECT REMAINS WEST OF KSBN IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR INZ103-203.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page