041
FXUS63 KIWX 221640
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1240 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-80 FROM 3P TO 9P.
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- MORE STORMS FRIDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
A FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IS THIS AREA. SURFACED BASED CAPES MAY REACH 1500 TO
2500 J/KG. THE SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK FOR WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP
TO 3/4 INCH. IN THE INTERIM, PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE MICHIGAN BORDER. AFTER COORDINATION WITH GRAND RAPIDS, WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR THE FOG; HOWEVER, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS
SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE OHIO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST GFS INDICATES HEIGHTS WILL RISE AROUND
100 METERS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850
MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUPPORT THESE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THE REST OF THIS WEEK, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC HAS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, SEVERAL RIVERS WERE IN
"ACTION" AND "FLOOD" STAGE. DEPENDING HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE
INDIVIDUAL BASINS THE REST OF THIS WEEK, RIVER FLOODING MAY
PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND ON INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
AS OF 1630Z, ONE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED NEAR GRAND
RAPIDS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18-21Z ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTH OF I-80
AND SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR STORMS BETWEEN 19-23Z AT KFWA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. IN ANY STORMS,
SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
HAZARDS. AFTER SUNSET, ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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