583
FXUS63 KIWX 270633
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE VARIATION THEN
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN MID-
UPPER 70S.
- 20-50% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 24) THROUGH MID MORNING. DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
BY IN LARGE THE AREA WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL OVER THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS JUST WEST OF THE REGION. BEFORE
WE GET THERE, A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED SCENARIO TAKES PLACE AS AN AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN IN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED WAVE AND WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND RIDES
ALONG THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON TIMING,
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NOTED AS OF 6Z FROM SOUTH OF
LAFAYETTE TO MARYSVILLE, OH. SOME CAMS DO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT COULD
EDGE TO NEAR US-24 WARRANTING A CONTINUED TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, A "COOL" FRONT DROPS QUICKLY
SOUTH ACROSS MI/WI THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MI BORDER TOWARDS 00Z
THU AND THEN CONTINUING SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
DROPS INTO NE PARTS OF THE AREA IF ANY LINGERING MOISTURE STILL
EXISTS. THINKING BEST (VERY LIMITED) CHANCES REMAIN JUST NE OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.
80S WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, SAVE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-24 WHERE THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE THE SOUTHERLY
SYSTEM MAY LIMIT WARMING SOMEWHAT. ON THU, SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 MB
TEMP AND MORE NOTICEABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS (DROPPING INTO THE 40S)
WILL BRING A VERY PLEASANT FEEL. ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN AWAY FROM ANY
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND, DISTURBANCES AND WEAK FRONTS WILL
HELP KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, WHILE THE OVERALL WIND AND WAVE FORECAST
WILL NOT POSE A CONCERN TO SMALL CRAFT BEHIND THE COOL FRONT
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
INCREASING SWIM RISK AFTER 9Z THU THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z THU. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK RESIDES ALONG THE LA PORTE
COUNTY SHORE LINE AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY SHORES. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT, BUT
IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF OUR BEACH ZONES BY THE NEXT PACKAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY VFR
CONDITIONS AS A ELONGATED WAVE AND SFC MOISTURE GRADIENT ATTEMPT TO
WORK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN. 2 TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR BRIEF FLIGHT IMPACTS. AT KSBN, OBS JUST BEFORE 3Z
INDICATED FEW002, SUGGESTING SOME ATTEMPT AT STRATUS/BR. THIS HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVERNIGHT. MODELS VARY
ON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF BOTH
PRECIP AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ALONG THE AFORMENTIONED GRADIENT. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO LIE SOUTH OF KFWA, BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE
FOR A FEW HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF, BUT TRENDS TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ103-203.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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