650
FXUS63 KIWX 121045
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.
- LOW CHANCES (<20%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATELINE THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (40-70%) OF SHOWERS ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
POCKETS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS AS XOVER TEMPS ARE EXCEEDED. THESE POCKETS APPEAR TO
BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN NATURE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LESSEN SOME AS
COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OCCURS. NOT PLANNING ANY HEADLINES, BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IF HIGHLIGHTED FACTORS DON'T IMPACT THE COVERAGE.
ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES END THE THREAT. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD) HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. MODEL
BLENDS HINT AT A FEW 90 DEGREES HIGHS ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO REMAIN IN MI.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA WED AND
THUR AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ALONG IT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS EXACTLY HOW MUCH PROGRESS THE
FRONT MAKES EACH DAY GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO HELP
PUSH IT ALONG. PERIODS OF LIKELY TO CAT POPS REMAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON INTERACTIONS
(OR LACK THEREOF) WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE MAY BE SOME AGREEMENT STARTING AS AN INITIAL,
WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH, WITH AN ORPHANED UPPER LOW STICKING AROUND IN THE SW US. AS
A RESULT, PICTURE REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO EXACT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, AT
LEAST A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER (BELOW NORMAL) AIR ARRIVES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAINLY IMPACTING KFWA WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT THREE HOURS AS HIGH CLOUDS AND GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE.
ELEVATED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS LATER TODAY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND VFR WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20
KTS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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