561
FXUS63 KIWX 082341
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM & HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH DAILY
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING
IN FREQUENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF NUMEROUS MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS IL. MOST
HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR AT
LEAST WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AFTER 00Z W/ THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY, BUT NONETHELESS A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW / WEAK VORT
MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, MODELS SUGGEST A RATHER COMPLEX
PATTERN EVOLUTION W/ TWO HIGHLY ENERGETIC SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCES INTERACTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN REMAINS A BIT MUDDY AT THIS
TIME, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY ESPECIALLY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILES
APPEAR EXTREMELY MOIST WITH VERY TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES,
SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST WPC DAYS 4/5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT THOUGH W/ THE LATEST NBM SPECTRUM SUGGESTING
ONLY AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5 INCH QPF ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA DESPITE A FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS HINTING AT MUCH
MORE ROBUST TOTALS. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST W/ THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL HUMIDITY
ARRIVING IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY HELP PUSH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
HUMIDITY INCREASES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSES THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME WE GET TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY
15Z WED AND SO WILL USE A PROB30 FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. WILL
ALSO USE A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND BOTH OF THESE
GROUPS WILL HAVE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR NOW. WIND-WISE,
SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAMMER
AVIATION...ROLLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page