937
FXUS63 KIWX 041106
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
706 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 81 TO 87
DEGREES, WARMEST WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
- CHANCES (40-80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY(20-40
PERCENT). THE BEST CHANCES ARE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH WED. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE HAVE A NICE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS,
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE WED EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND A BROAD TROUGH STEMMING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY TAKES HOLD OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM NW TO SE, STALLING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL SEE RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. HAVE AROUND A 40-80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED
PM INTO FRIDAY, WHICH IS WHEN CHANCES BEGIN TO DWINDLE FROM NW TO
SE. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. WITH THE FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE CWA, WE COULD END UP DRY
SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF LOW 20 PERCENT CHANCES OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE GENERATES PRECIPITATION IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE, BUT MY CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO
HIGH IN THIS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
A COUPLE ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SLIGHTLY TROUGHED/ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS (20-40 PERCENT). THE BEST CHANCES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER WAVE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT
NEAR LAKE MI THAT COULD MOVE INTO KSBN (HAVE SCATTERED NOW), BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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