499
FXUS63 KIWX 212315
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
715 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24.
- TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY AS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WAS LARGELY UTILIZED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US EXTENDING
BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
A TRANQUIL WEEK IS AHEAD. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S EACH DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVERHEAD AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS; WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OUT OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BUT FOR NOW CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (15-20%) AS IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURE
GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN BREAKS DOWN.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US 24. LIGHT N/NE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR
DENSE FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY, WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK. A SPS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND WHERE ANY FOG
DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOG IS ONCE AGAIN THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD. CHANCES
APPEAR MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT BECAUSE WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND WE WILL NOT HAVE THE LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP GIVEN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH HIGHER THAT IT WILL BE
JUST SHALLOW/PATCHY BR AND MAINLY JUST AT KFWA. HAVE THEREFORE
HELD WITH JUST A TEMPO 5SM MENTION THERE. OTHERWISE, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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