759
FXUS63 KIWX 251831
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THURSDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE
50S ON FRIDAY.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
- A WARMING TREND THEN TAKES OVER FROM EARLY THE NEXT WORK WEEK
TO THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
THIS PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IN THE SHORT
TO MEDIUM TERM. THEN, LOOK FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO COME AROUND 3/4
TO 3/7, WHEN IT BECOMES MORE DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
CLOSER TO HOME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY. TODAY'S COOL DAY BEHIND LAST
NIGHT'S COLD FRONT (850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C IN OUR MI COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z) WARMS SOME FOR THURSDAY, AS A WARM FRONT PASSES BY TO
OUR NORTH, WITH MORE LIKE -5C IN OUR NORTH. THE SYSTEM THAT WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH SNOW TONIGHT CONTINUES
TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND MAY NOT AFFECT OUR AREA AT ALL. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURS THURSDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER DRY DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED OVER THE AREA BY A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRADDLES THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
SO THAT WHILE DRY WEATHER EXISTS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT SPELLS COOL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A BAROCLINIC
ZONE SETS UP JUST TO ITS SOUTH. MODERATE FORCING ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT CAUSES SOME PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. AT THIS POINT, SNOWFALL OUTPUT APPEARS LIGHT, BUT WE'LL
WANT TO SEE HOW THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HANDLES IT TO SEE IF THERE'S
BETTER MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN. THERE'S ALSO SOME LOCATION
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS (WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE ECMWF). THE NBM/MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
MEANS ALIGN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND ITS LOCATION AT THIS POINT.
COLD AIR COMES DOWN IN TIME FOR SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BUT TIMING THE PHASING OF UPPER JETS AND DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM
IS KEY. 12Z MODEL RUN AGREEMENT HAS THE SYSTEM AND ITS SNOW
OUTPUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUT SOUTHERN AREA DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL. SHOULD THE INGREDIENTS BECOME BETTER LINED UP, PERHAPS WE
CAN SEE SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
WITH THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER LOW
CREEPING INTO SOUTHWESTERN US LATER MONDAY/ MONDAY NIGHT, WARMING
TEMPERATURES TAKE OVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE'S DISAGREEMENT IN STORM TRACK ON THIS ONE
AND IT COULD MISS ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH YET. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME ONSET FREEZING PRECIP IF ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES OUT OF THE
SUNDAY NIGHT STORM.
THAT TROUGH IN THE WEST/RIDGE IN THE EAST PATTERN TAKES OVER FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD LEAD TO WARMING AND POTENTIALLY SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. MVFR STRATOCU NEAR 2-2.5 KFT AT KSBN AS
OF 16Z SHOULD MIX/SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY 18/19Z AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. VFR/DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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