350
FXUS63 KIWX 131025
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EDGES INTO AREAS WEST OF
US-69 FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN RISK IS DAMAGING WIND, BUT HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO WANE
FARTHER EAST OF I-69.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS WAVES
REACH 3 TO 5 FEET. BREAKING TO LIFE-THREATENING WAVES AND
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WARM ADVECTION REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS SUCH, A THETA-E PLUME REACHES THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND THIS HELPS SET UP A POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE AS DEW POINTS REACH BACK INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS CAPPED ACCORDING TO NAM AND
HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. FINALLY,
THE MOIST ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA AROUND 21 TO 3Z, WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS, BUT MOST MODELS
HOLD THINGS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z, MAYBE EVEN UNTIL CLOSER TO 6Z AS
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH MORE SUCCINCT FORCING. INSTABILITY DOES
BEGIN TO WANE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER SUNSET, BUT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT CLOSER TO 6Z. HRRR SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AND SO
PERHAPS HEAVY RAIN THAT LEADS TO FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE 18Z
NAMNEST WAS SHOWING A SLOWED SQUALL LINE THAT HANGED OUT LK MI.
WHILE THAT'S AN OUTLIER, SLOWER STORM MOTIONS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO
MELTING HAIL AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE HAIL WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO LOFT HAIL.
RAIN AND MAYBE STORMS APPEAR TO LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF IN-15 SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING. 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TAKES TIME TO RELAX
AND THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPARTS. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
AROUND SUNDAY AND CONTINUES MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, SPOKES OF
VORTICITY CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND AND LOOK TO AFFECT THE AREA
STARTING TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE WEAK, ABOUT 500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, INSTABILITY AS SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY JUST REACH 60 DEGREES
WITH A WEAK THETA-E PLUME SWINGING THROUGH. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ONLY
BRIEFLY ACHIEVES 30 KTS SO THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A GENERAL
THUNDER TYPE EVENT. ANOTHER, MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE QUESTION WITH THIS ONE
WILL BE IF WE CAN GET THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA IN TIME AS BY
00Z WED EVENING, THE ECMWF IS ONLY JUST DOING SO. AT THIS POINT, THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING AND WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA SO WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE NAM HANDLES IT WHEN IT GETS
CLOSER TO GET AN UNDERSTANDING ON INSTABILITY.
THURSDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY BACK TO DRIER WEATHER THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR ONE OR BOTH
OF THE WEEKEND DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. A VERY
MOIST COLUMN OF AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNSET,
BUT IT'LL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL 3 TO 5Z (6Z AND THERE AFTER AT FWA)
TO GET ADVERSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN, PROBABLY ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
WE DO SEE GUSTY WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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