511
FXUS63 KIWX 162331
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
731 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S.
- VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY FIRES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA'S WEATHER AND
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND
50S TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT IN PLACES. FORTUNATELY, WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET, CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY
OUTDOOR FIRES.
THERE IS A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW MODELS TEASED AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THAT NOW LOOKS LESS
LIKELY. THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT TO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND IT WILL INSTEAD MOVE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY THOUGH, AND MAYBE BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS DO NOT AGREE, SO THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024
QUITE DRY WITH THE 40 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ALLOWS MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR FOG. WITH NO CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WILL CONTINUE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY, EAST WINDS PREVAIL AND WILL REMAIN
WEAKER THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...ROLLER
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