330
FXUS63 KIWX 051850
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UP TO 0.5' OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
- LOW CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
- 1-2" SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 1-2" FOR BERRIEN
AND LA PORTE COUNTIES.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF BITTER COLD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW
LIGHT SNOW ATTEMPTING TO OVERCOME DRY AIR AND FILLING ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE FIRST OF TWO 500MB SHORTWAVES SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A
DUSTING TO UP TO 0.5" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WITH A LULL IN SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS USING HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A LACK OF CLOUD ICE AFTER
00Z TONIGHT, WHICH LENDS TO POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE,
ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. THE RAP SHOWS FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR DRIZZLE WITH 0-1KM
RH > 90% AND CEILINGS HOVERING AROUND 1000 FT TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST. HI-
RES GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE HRRR AND NAM) CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND
OF SNOW SET TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN AREA,
INTENSITY, AND IMPACTS FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW; IF ANYTHING,
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH JUST A GLAZE TO A TENTH
OR TWO POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE TIMEFRAME FOR FRIDAY. A
SECOND 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A MORE POTENT ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM IN RECENT RUNS, BRINGING IN MORE QPF AND
THUS MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE FRIDAY, THIS MAY LIMIT SNOWFALL
EFFICIENCY BUT MAY DECREASE THE SLR. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE
SNOW THAT FALLS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE SLRS CLOSER TO
NORMAL (13:1) WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" ARE EXPECTED, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2"
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. THERE MAY BE SLICK SPOTS FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE BUT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A HIGHER SUN
ANGLE, WAA WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP. WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND STRONG CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES
FALL FRIDAY EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS FOR NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SHORELINE OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEING
MOSTLY ICE COVERED, THE OPEN WATERS ARE STILL UNFROZEN. WITH A
NORTHERLY FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN (AND POSSIBLE LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTION), THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT AMOUNTS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF US-31. INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL BE DECENT AROUND 5-6 KFT AND THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND
LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ. SOME DRY AIR MAY LIMIT TOTALS THOUGH AND
THERE ARE LIMITED THETA-E LAPSE RATES AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES. WITH
THE NORTH FETCH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2" WILL LIKELY
BE HIGHEST IN LA PORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN. BITTER COLD BRIEFLY RETURNS WITH LOW AS LOW AS
THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY'S HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. DID WANT TO NOTE HERE THAT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. IN NW INDIANA WHERE CLOUDS LIKELY
PERSIST BOTH NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE TEENS. AWAY
FROM THE LAKE, IN LOCATIONS THAT GET CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BOTH NIGHTS, WHICH LENDS
ITSELF TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
INTO NEXT WEEK, A WARM UP AND POSSIBLE THAW IS ON THE WAY! WHILE IT
IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW JUST HOW MILD TEMPERATURES WILL GET, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR ARE IN THE MID 30S; ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
HIGHS ABOVE 40 WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. WE LIKELY WON'T
MAKE A MULTI-DAY RUN OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK; WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE WAA, RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW
MAY BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE(S). STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
AN UPPER VORT MAX INDUCED BY A COMPACT 125 KNOT JET STREAK WILL
DIG ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AT KSBN, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR
KFWA AREA WHERE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WILL LEAD TO DRYING OUT OF FAVORED SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER WHICH
RESULTS IN SOME QUESTION AS TO FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. SOME
LINGERING SHALLOW WARM ADVECTION LIFT COULD AID IN PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHEARED WAVE HELPS
DEVELOP SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW
FOCUSED IN THE 10Z-16Z PERIOD. MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOWER END MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN REGARDS TO WINDS, SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER WESTERLY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT FRIDAY AM, BUT A SECONDARY
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOME HIGHS GUST POTENTIAL OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS TOWARD END OF AND BEYOND THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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