053
FXUS63 KIWX 180514
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-40%) ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
STAGNANT WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH FRIDAY
(AND PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY) WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA LIKELY FORCES A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT INTO THIS
RIDGING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WASHING OUT NEAR THE
US 30 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH LACKING FORCING AND WASHED OUT NATURE SUGGESTING
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU NEAR THE FRONT.
CHANCES, ALBEIT LOW (20-40%), FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ENTER
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LEADING SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES ADVECT BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST WAVE ON SUNDAY APPEARS WEAKER WITH
LINGERING DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR POTENTIALLY LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE.
BETTER SHOWER AND ISO STORM PROSPECTS ARRIVE AROUND
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH DAILY POPS REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OTHERWISE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW (ALBEIT WEAK) REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND WITH IT THE RISK OF SOME MARINE-MODIFIED AIR SPILLING
OVER KFWA RESULTING IN SOME FOG. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
THE POSSIBILITY, BUT ITS MAGNITUDE AND AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
IS NOT AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS AGO. OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNWIND OF ERIE ARE STARTING TO DEGRADE. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED BUT NOW, AM CARRYING ON WITH THE INHERITED TAFS. NO
FOG CONCERN AT KSBN. LIGHT WIND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTY OF SUN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BROWN
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