859
FXUS63 KIWX 121145
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THIS WEEKEND (20-40% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
A COMPACT, UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. PERHAPS AIDED BY ONSHORE FLOW, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. CROSS SECTIONS OTHERWISE SHOW
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 7K FEET AND MINIMAL FORCING, THUS,
MINIMAL IMPACTS.
DECREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE GULF COAST. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TO ABOUT 40-45 KNOTS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
MIXING JUST SHY OF THESE 850MB WINDS, RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL CREEP EVEN WARMER THAN TUESDAY,
FURTHER THAWING THE WEEKEND'S SNOWPACK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, QUIET WEATHER UNTIL ABOUT SATURDAY
WHEN THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DAY-TO-DAY WITH HIGHS TRENDING
ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE UPPER 50S) FRIDAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY (A REMINDER OF HOW EARLY THIS RECENT DOSE OF WINTER WAS!)
FOR SATURDAY, POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CANADIAN LOW IS
DISJOINTED WHICH DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR WEEKEND RAIN
AMOUNTS. SHARPLY COLDER WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES CRASHING BELOW 0C,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY NEAR 50F.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THEREAFTER LOOKS TO OFFER MORE TEMPERATURE
SWINGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD, WITH
MAINLY LINGERING SCT/BKN DECKS AROUND 20-25KFT. THERE ARE A FEW
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT AT KFWA THIS MORNING, BUT THOSE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT THROUGH LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, W-SW WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE W-NW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MCD
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