712  
FXUS63 KIWX 191044  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
644 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THESE COULD BECOME  
SEVERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER  
WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER  
60S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES  
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE  
PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TODAY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION BRINGING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM OF BOWING SEGMENTS, LEWPS, AND  
OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG  
MODELS IN HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL  
GENERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION  
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING THE  
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTACT AND GENERATING A CLUSTER  
OF STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON. AT THE SAME TIME,  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATE MAXES ABOVE 1.6  
INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST, MBE (MESO BETA  
ELEMENTS) MAY HAVE A NET MOVEMENT OF NEAR ZERO AND COULD BRING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL, SUSTAINED NON-  
CONVECTIVE WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY. RAIN SHOULD END  
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
VERY CHILLY CANADIAN AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. SKIES WILL  
CLEAR MONDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. LOWS BY  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR 40 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER  
MICHIGAN WHERE PATCHY FROST IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,  
ESPECIALLY AT THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,  
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AS NEARLY  
UNANIMOUS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE  
MAIN UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS  
PATTERN SHOULD EJECT SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES  
DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE  
MIDWEST. TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS CHALLENGING WITH THESE  
SYSTEMS, SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE TO THE  
FORECAST AS BETTER DETAIL BECOMES AVAILABLE. HAVE RAISED  
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS OF  
16C TO 19C MIXING ADIABATICALLY DOWN TO THE SURFACE RENDERS HIGHS  
FROM 86F TO 92F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE TOP 10  
PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS OF  
86F/87F WHICH WOULD ALSO MATCH THE WARMING FROM 850 AND ECMWF AND  
GFS MOS (MODEL OUTPUT). THE INITIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY  
WEEKEND APPEARS COOLER WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP COOLER AIR NOT FAR TO THE  
NORTH. AT THE MOMENT, HAVE HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 WITH A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TIMING  
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODELS AND RADAR/SAT TRENDS. STILL  
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT BUT  
CERTAINLY GOOD CHANCES FOR TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT ESPECIALLY KFWA.  
FOLLOWING MORE OF A HRRR SOLUTION FOR TIMING. SKIES PARTIALLY  
CLEAR BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN COLD  
AIR ADVECTION LATTER PART OF VALID PERIOD BUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT  
FOR NOW WITH FOCUS ON NEAR TERM WEATHER.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT MONDAY  
FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY  
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER  
LONG TERM...SKIPPER  
AVIATION...LASHLEY  
 
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