945
FXUS63 KIWX 112330
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON N-S
ORIENTED ROADS.
- HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S MONDAY, THEN RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY.
- RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ALL THE WAY INTO THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAS DEPARTED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY ESTABLISHED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ALTHOUGH RADAR REFLECTIVITY STILL SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
RETURNS, SUGGESTING THAT FLURRIES ARE STILL ONGOING IN SPOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STILL DEEPENING LOW HAS ALLOWED ALSO FOR GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
TO DEVELOP TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW GUST AROUND 25
MPH AND WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON N-S ORIENTED ROADS. AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN
THIS EVENING, WINDS AND ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH.
WHILE WE DO GET A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, OVERCAST SKIES, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO START THE NEW WORK
WEEK. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST UP TO
20 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH
WAA BOOSTING HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES, ALLOWING FOR MELTING OF SNOW TO
OCCUR. THERE COULD BE SOME INTERMITTENT SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOMORROW; ENJOY THIS WHILE IT LASTS BECAUSE
THE JANUARY PERMACLOUD RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK!
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRAVERSES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS RAIN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AS TEMPERATURES FALL, SOUNDING PROFILES
FAVOR A SOME SNOW MIXING IN TUESDAY NIGHT. CAA AND CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A LAKE RESPONSE; PERIODS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY LINGER INTO THURSDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND MAY BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH.
COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (HIGHS
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S) WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON.
BETTER SNOW CHANCES EXIST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE COLDER AIR, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM TRACKS. RECENT RUNS OF THE NBM
HAVE A LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WOULD MEAN
SNOW IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
A SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH BRINGING THE BETTER SNOW
CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES OUT AND TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY CAUSING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION BECOMES MORE SHALLOW WITH REMNANT MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT SO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THESE TAFS. WHILE THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
FIGHTING OVER IF DRY AIR OR THE TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL WIN OUT, THESE
TAFS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
WITH THE SCATTERING OUT OF CLOUDS, MODELS ARE BUILDING MIXING AND
CAUSING 25 KT WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR ALONG WITH 10+ KT SUSTAINED WINDS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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