478  
FXUS63 KIWX 231833  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
122 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
RAIN MOVES IN AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AND CONTINUES PERIODICALLY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. SNOW FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RETURN TO THE 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER NRN NM WILL EJECT OUT THROUGH THE SRN  
PLAINS TONIGHT AND SHEAR NEWD INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY AHEAD OF  
UPSTREAM KICKER DISTURBANCE THROUGH SWRN BC THIS AFTN. INITIAL  
DRYNESS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE  
WITH DEEPER/MORE VIGOROUS MOISTURE ADVECTION HOLDING OFF THIS LATE  
MON AFTN/EVE THUS SOME DAMPENING OF PRIOR POPS (EARLY) MAKE SENSE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
SECONDARY INCOMING NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WRAPS UP THROUGH THE OH  
VALLEY LATE TUE/WED. MODEST SPREAD STILL INDICATED ALOFT ESP AS IT  
RELATES TO SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF COLD AIR AND PLACEMENT OF LARGE  
PRECIP INDUCING DEFORMATION ZONE. BULK OF NCEP SOURCED GUIDANCE  
TAKES MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW RISK WEST/NORTH WHILE NON-NCEP  
CLUSTERING FARTHER SOUTH/EAST WHICH IMPLICATES NW HALF OF THE IWX  
CWA GIVEN CERTAIN TRENDING AND PARTICULARLY WED THROUGH WED NIGHT  
WITH COLDER TEMP GUIDANCE.  
 
THEREAFTER CONTINUED COLD WITH DECAYING SNOW SHOWERS AS DEEP  
CYCLONIC LAKES CENTERED FLOW THU WANES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PERIOD, WITH  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY ARRIVING AFTER 9Z ACROSS THE AREA.  
EXACTLY HOW FAST SATURATION OCCURS AND LOWER CIGS ARRIVES IS STILL  
IN QUESTION, BUT HAVE TRIED TO NARROW DOWN GENERAL WINDOWS FOR  
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LOOKS TO OCCUR FASTER AT KFWA  
THAN KSBN SO MORE AGGRESSIVE STANCE TAKEN ON TAFS THERE WITH CIGS  
RIGHT ON IFR/LIFR VS MVFR AT KSBN. AFTER 18Z RAIN WILL ARRIVE AND  
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO BOTH SITES.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...T  
SHORT TERM...T  
LONG TERM...T  
AVIATION...FISHER  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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