847
FXUS63 KIWX 061854
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
154 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN LOWERED
VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW.
- LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH 1-3" EXPECTED
EAST OF US-31, ESPECIALLY FOR BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF BITTER COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1-9 AM EST SATURDAY EAST OF
I-69 FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
- A WARM UP IS AHEAD WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE SURPASSED THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE JANUARY 22ND! TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE AHEAD AS
ARCTIC AIR INTRUDES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE STRAIGHTS OF MACKINAC DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS FRONT IS POISED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALL-ESQUE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS (MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, ETC) ARE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOESN'T EVEN SHOW UP FOR
OUR AREA ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE, BUT DID WANT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS SINCE THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS DO SHOW SQUALLS/BURSTS OF
SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD ANY
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW DEVELOP, LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND FALLING
SNOW MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON
EXACT LOCATIONS, INTENSITY, AND IMPACT'S, IF AT ALL.
WHAT WE DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IS LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE AND ATTENDANT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP.
EVEN AWAY FROM AREAS WITH LAKE EFFECT, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30-35
MPH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM
BLOWING SNOW. WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG CAA BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPS FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING AFTER 00Z LASTING INTO SATURDAY. WITH A NORTHERLY FETCH
OVER THE OPEN UNFROZEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN (AND POSSIBLE LAKE
SUPERIOR CONNECTION), THE BEST CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY
BE WEST OF US-31. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE DECENT AROUND 5000 FT
AND THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ. SOME DRY AIR MAY
LIMIT TOTALS THOUGH AND THERE ARE LIMITED THETA-E LAPSE RATES AS
TONIGHT PROGRESSES. NEVERTHELESS, HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT LAKE EFFECT DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A
MULTI BAND SETUP FOR THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS IN BERRIEN,MI
AND LA PORTE, IN COUNTIES. SOME MODELS HAVE THE LAKE EFFECT
EXTENDING INLAND DOWN TO OUR BORDER WITH IND (WHITE AND CASS
COUNTIES), SO IT IS POSSIBLE THOSE LOCATIONS ALSO GET IN ON SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY SHOULD BE
1-3" CLOSEST TO LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE CONTINUED TO USE THE WPC
QPF GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS SLRS UP TO 20:1.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN. A BRIEF COLD SNAP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. DID WANT TO NOTE HERE THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BOTH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER. ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN AND DOWNWIND INTO NW INDIANA, CLOUDS LIKELY PERSIST
BOTH NIGHTS SO TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. HOWEVER, AWAY FROM THE LAKE, THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN LOCATIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES SO TEMPERATURES
LIKELY DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO,
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO BOTH NIGHTS.
HREF SHOWS 30% PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 FOR SUB-ZERO
LOWS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH (5-10 MPH) TO PREVENT
SUB-ZERO LOWS FROM OCCURING. EVEN IF AIR TEMPERATURES DO NOT
REACH ZERO OR BELOW, WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS COLD AS -10 TO -15
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IN AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE SHARP GRADIENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN BITTERLY
COLD WIND CHILLS TO WARRANT ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
PART OF THE AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM EST TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NW OHIO AND HILLSDALE COUNTY,
MI. THIS (AND LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST) ARE WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE
MOSTLY LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND OUR FAR
NORTHEAST MAY GET A BRIEF 6-ISH HOUR WINDOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK, A WARM UP AND MID FEBRUARY THAW
IS ON THE WAY! HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS
FORECASTS HAD WIDESPREAD 40S, HOWEVER, RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THIS TREND. THE PERSISTENT SNOWPACK OF 6-12" ACROSS THE AREA
(LIKELY HIGHER IN SOME PLACES WITH SATURDAY'S LAKE EFFECT) WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GET.
BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 40 WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24;
SHOULD THE WARM FRONT MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH, A RUN AT 50 DEGREES
COULD BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA! WE LIKELY WON'T MAKE A
MULTI-DAY RUN OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK; WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND LOWS IN THE 20S, PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIME OF DAY IN WHICH IT FALLS. WE COULD SEE
RAIN DURING THE DAY AND THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
RAMP UP, BUT WILL BECOME MORE ENHANCED BY THIS EVENING AS
SECONDARY STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SOME
DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT GUSTS INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE (A FEW STRONGER GUSTS). THIS COLD
ADVECTION IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER DRY AIR ADVECTION
ALSO WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF ADDITIONAL IFR CIGS TO THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THIS VALID PERIOD. A SECONDARY VORT MAX
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY PROMOTE SOME MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT GIVEN DRY AIR WORKING IN ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER, THESE WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND OF SCATTERED COVERAGE. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME DOMINANT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL EVOLVE.
OVERALL LAKE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT
DURATION OF THE SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MIZ081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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