994
FXUS63 KIWX 051653
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED (LESS THAN 0.1").
- A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS
TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
A WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES TODAY.
FIRST CAA PUSH IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -6C. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LATE DAY WAA AND THIS COUPLED
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 50F IN OUR SW
WHILE NE ZONES HOLD IN THE LOW 40S. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BUT BY
AND LARGE DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT
WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. BEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SKIRTS TO THE NE BUT SUSPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF US-30 WILL
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN (<0.1"). A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD EVEN MIX IN
ACROSS OUR FAR NE BUT OF COURSE THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION. SOME
WEAK CAA ARRIVES ON MON BUT SHOULD STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 50F. THE
REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO ALMOST -15C OVER MICHIGAN AND NEAR -10C IN OUR CWA. LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE FAR NE. WHILE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEGUN, ANY VULNERABLE OUTDOOR
PLANTS SHOULD BE PROTECTED, IF POSSIBLE.
AFTER HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40F ON TUE, TEMPS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
WED AND 70S FOR THU AS THE EASTERN CANADA TROUGH EXITS AND SOME
RIDGING/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
WITH OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS BOUNDARY THEN OSCILLATES
OVER REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH RAISES CONCERN
FOR ADDITIONAL SOAKING RAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD ON HOW EXACTLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES IN THIS 6-10 DAY WINDOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
STRATUS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT IS EXITING NORTHWEST
INDIANA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OCCURS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE MORE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS MINNESOTA
RACING SOUTHEAST. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A QUICK
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WITH STRONG ASCENT NOTED RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS PRIOR TO 12Z. IN ITS WAKE, LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDINESS LINGERS BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...BROWN
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