028
FXUS63 KIWX 011841
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
141 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S BY LATE WEEK.
- A WET AND SOGGY WEEK IS AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE DROUGHT IS ONGOING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER AND BUILDING
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO START MARCH. WITH EASTERLY
WINDS, WE HAD SOME FLURRIES THIS MORNING ADVECTING OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THOUGH, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY. A SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY; GRANT, BLACKFORD
AND JAY COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
GETTING A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ON MONDAY MORNING ON THE FAR
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD THIS
WEEK WITH INCREASING MILD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY
THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A ~10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL
BE FRIDAY, WHEN SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24 MAY REACH 70
DEGREES! PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS WEEK WILL NOT ONLY
USHER IN THE MILD AIR BUT ALSO AID IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
RETURN. PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 1" AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. A PARADE OF WARM/STATIONARY FRONTS WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
PROVIDING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAINFALL EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FIRST INCOMING SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE RAIN AREA-WIDE AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR FLOODING
EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF ~500 J/KG. LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.
WITH WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK,
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT 2- 4" IN QPF FALLING OVER THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND
WINTER. SOUTH OF US 24 HAS ONLY SEEN 25-50% OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PAST 12 MONTHS. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT HAS PERSISTED SINCE
SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENTLY DRY CONDITIONS, RAIN WILL
HELP TO REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE, BUT IT MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE
GROUND TO HANDLE. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN JUST HOW MUCH WATER
THE ABNORMALLY DRY GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE BEFORE IT RUNS
OFF. REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA MAY
OVERWHELM THE THEN SATURATED GROUND AND CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. RISES ON AREA RIVERS IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATOCU AT KFWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTER
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY AS
THE LOWEST 10 KFT REMAIN DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY OTHERWISE INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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