872
FXUS63 KIWX 091037
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO.
- HIGHS TODAY AROUND 70 TO 75.
- SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60
TO 65.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAD DRIFTED SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND AND MUNCIE AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. LIGHT FOG WAS FORMING BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS WHERE DEW POINTS
WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. A LOW STRATUS DECK WAS ONLY 100 TO
200 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND HAS BEEN LOWERING EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SPOTS HAD VISIBILITIES AT OR CLOSE TO 1/2 MILE.
IT IS LIKELY PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX CAPES REACHING
AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO
ACCORDING TO BOTH CAMS AND SPECTRAL MODELS. CURRENT THINKING IS
MAX WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THESE
EAST AREAS.
THE COOL AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE ADVANCE STATE OF VEGETATION,
FROST HEADLINES ARE LIKELY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY MONDAY WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO -4C PER GFS. SURFACE LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN
THE 33F TO 39F RANGE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
OTHERWISE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND RACE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY, STORMS WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF A
RETREATING LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT HAS COMBINED WITH
SHALLOW NEAR SFC MOISTURE BENEATH LOW LEVEL INVERSION FOR
EXTENSIVE IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THESE IFR CIGS
WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF
THIS HIGHER NEAR SFC RH AND INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. OTHERWISE TODAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT STRONGER
VORT LOBE EJECTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING TODAY WITHOUT AN EXTENDED
DURATION OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NORTHERN INDIANA SHOULD
ALSO BE LOCATED ON FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER, SOME MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED-
SCATTERED CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME AT
KFWA. GIVEN SOME LATITUDINAL DISCONNECT IN FORCING/INSTABILITY
AND EXPECTED SCATTERED COVERAGE, WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 TSRA
MENTION AT KFWA. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
PERIOD AS ANOTHER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND COULD
INTERACT WITH SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS POTENTIAL
MAY MAXIMIZE JUST SOUTH OF KFWA AND WILL LET LATER FORECASTS
ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN MORE DETAIL. OTHERWISE TODAY, DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING WILL PROMOTE PEAK AFTERNOON
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THESE GUSTS SHOULD SHARPLY
DIMINISH TOWARD 23Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OCCURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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