978
FXUS63 KIWX 202243
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
643 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOW.
- GRADUAL WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE CONUS. IT IS THEN UP TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
OR SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW TO BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
AREA TO BRING TIMES OF RAIN OR A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
AREA TO PROVIDE TIMES OF DRIER WEATHER. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THE REST OF TODAY, EAST
WINDS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE AREA DEVOID OF RAIN, BUT SOME
CLOUDINESS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY AND THAT OPENS THE DOOR FOR
LOW PRESSURE TO COME IN FROM THE SOUTHERN US AND PROVIDE TIMES
OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHEAR WILL
STILL BE LACKING, BUT AN AREA OF MUCAPE TRAVERSES LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF US-24 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THAT MAY PROVIDE
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SURPASS 60 DEGREES AND SO IT'LL FEEL FAIRLY HUMID
AGAIN AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT AVAILABLE. SOUTHWESTERN FLOW COMES
BACK INTO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT AGAIN SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LACKING RESTRICTING SEVERITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. SFC DEW POINTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SURPASS 60F
DURING THIS TIME BRINGING BACK THE HUMIDITY AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS THE AREA DRY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA. IT MAY
BE THAT THE FRONT IS STILL STALLED OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY TO KEEP US OUT OF ANY RAIN CHANCES AS ATTEMPTS FOR
RETURN FLOW TAKE PLACE. IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT POP SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORM LATER TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY GIVEN
SOME BETTER INSTABILITY, BUT AREAS OF FORCING ARE HARD TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE WITH TODAY AND
THURSDAY BEING THE COOLEST AND DRIEST DAYS, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 70 DEGREES AGAIN AS SOON AS SATURDAY AND HAVE THE
CHANCE TO SLOWLY TREND WARMER AND MAY REACH 80 DEGREES AROUND
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT KFWA WILL SLOWLY CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH KSBN SEEING MAINLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. NO
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE TO E FLOW KEEPING
PRECIP AND LOWER CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...FISHER
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