914
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
743 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY DRY WHEN WAVES
ARE HIGH.
- DRY, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KICK
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S, CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. MUCAPE IS 2000-3000 J/KG AND
THERE IS MODERATE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, SO CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, THIS FRONT WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW, SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, AND LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OF
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND WARMER LAKE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S WHILE PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ACCUMULATION FROM ANY OF THE SHOWERS BUT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE DAMP ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE STORM TRACK STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURE WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETURN WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY
RESULTING IN BKN-OVC SKY COVERAGE AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WHETHER THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS, PARTICULARLY AT
KSBN. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST WITH 3500 FOOT
CEILINGS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO 2500-3000 FEET CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...HAMMER
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