023
FXUS63 KIWX 132301
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
701 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING (20-40% CHANCES)
WEST OF IN-15.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TRENDING WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, NOW OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE HURON. CYCLONIC FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS RESULTED IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT THIS IS NOW CLEARING AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE.
COLD TONIGHT, BUT SHY OF FROST/FREEZE CONCERN AS A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND NEAR 5 TO 10 MPH KEEPS TEMPERATURES RIGHT NEAR 40 DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGHS IN THE 60S
WHICH IS STILL SHY OF THE NORMAL HIGH NEAR 70. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIMPS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND PRESENTS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30. PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY AIR IS A LIMITING FACTOR ALONG WITH MODEST FORCING OVERALL. LOOK
FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH NOT A
WASHOUT, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
GULF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AN ORPHANED
FRONT FROM A DEPARTING CANADIAN LOW LINGERS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES.
THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY
RESULTING IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A 90-DEGREE
READING, BUT THE GENERAL CONCENSUS FROM A NUMBER OF NWS OFFICES WAS
TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AWAY FROM 90 DEGREES, NOTING A 4-
DEGREE BIAS CORRECTION. NONETHELESS, BECOMING VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND STORMY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPC DAY 6 OUTLOOK THREATENS TO CREEP EAST
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH TIME WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS NOTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR BOTH SITES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH STRONGER
DIURNAL GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET AND AGAIN AFTER 14Z THU.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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