705
FXUS63 KIWX 040917
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
517 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
- CHANCES (20-50%) INCREASE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MID
AFTERNOON TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE (WIND/HAIL).
- COOLER WITH A SOAKING RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT (70-90%), BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE US 24 CORRIDOR.
- COOL MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCES
(20-30%) FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND ONGOING WARM ADVECTION WITHIN RENEWED 30
KT PLUS 925-850 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
TODAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RESULTING CAPE MAGNITUDES WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THIS REGIME HOWEVER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY LIMITS COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION (20-40%) MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING
NEAR A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM-FRONTAL LIKE FEATURE, AND INCOMING
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH
THAT SAID, CANNOT COMPLETED RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT GIVEN
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS, WITH HAIL
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN CORRIDORS OF 25-35 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (HENCE THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK).
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST DOES PUSH A SLOWING COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. INCREASING (50-70%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE AND/OR COMPOSITE OUTFLOW. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LINGERING
MUCAPE AND STRONG ENOUGH PRE-FRONTAL FLOW TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
WIND THREAT LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR.
COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SFC FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE ELEVATED
PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY
(70-90%) BLOSSOMING AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. LATEST
GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN INTO
NW IN AND SW MI AS DRIER SURGES IN UNDER THE FRONTAL SLOPE. LATEST
NBM DID CUT INTO POPS/QPF HERE.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO LOCK IN AGGREGATE TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERIODIC OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES DROP
THROUGH IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KFWA. A WEAK WARM FRONT AND BUILDING
INSTABILITY DOES BRING THE CHANCE (20-40%) FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF
FLIGHT REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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