095
FXUS63 KIWX 101003
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
603 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65.
- FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OVER JAMES BAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS
TOPPING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AND WAS HELPING TO TAP INTO VERY
CHILLY AIR DEEP INTO THE NORTHERN CANADIAN INTERIOR. THIS COLD
AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ADVANCING STAGE OF
VEGETATION AND SENSITIVE PLANTS, FROST HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
OUT MONDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TOPS THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC RIDGE
AND RACES SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY. THE GFS PROFILES INCLUDES MODERATE SHEAR BUT RELATIVELY
LIMITED CAPE VALUES OF GENERALLY LESS THEN 500 J/KG. ALL
CONSIDERED, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS;
HOWEVER, STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN
DIAMETER IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF LULL
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA AS SHORT WAVE TROFS CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FROM AROUND 80 TO 85 THIS COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND SMALLER
SCALE WAVES EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY HAVE ALLOWED
FOR PERSISTENCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.
DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE TODAY WITH SOME JUST LOW COVERAGE DIURNAL CU
EXPECTED. ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROTATING ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
VFR LOW CLOUDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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