076
FXUS63 KIWX 232338
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
738 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE, IN.
- TRANQUIL FALL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND SUNSHINE.
- NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A LARGELY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CALLED AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL ALLOW
FOR MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THIS MORNING; AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY CONTINUES
TO AMPLIFY IN THE COMING DAYS, IT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. SINKING AIR UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
RESULT OUR PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS, MILD
TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
EACH DAY. WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS AHEAD BY THE END OF THE MONTH
INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST, HOWEVER, A FLIP TO MORE ACTIVE, WETTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE NEXT WEEK JUST IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN.
WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN LOCKED IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY YIELD SOME PATCHY
DENSE ADVECTION FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES FOR FOG WILL LIKELY BE NORTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE, IN AS THIS
IS WHERE THE SMALLEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
FOR FOG TO FORM. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, THE BEST TIMEFRAME
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY, WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AROUND DAYBREAK. A SPS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND WHERE ANY FOG
DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CONTINUED MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS
PAIRED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD PRESENTS THE
LOCAL WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS HIGH CLOUDS TO
ATTEMPT TO COME IN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FORMATION OF
FOG OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MARINE AIR IS
ADVECTED WESTWARD FROM LAKE ERIE. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION
ABOUT THE INTENSITY OF FOG AND IF A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT CAN
KEEP FOG NORTH OF FWA OR NOT. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A TEMPO
OF 2SM AT FWA FOR NOW, BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE FUTURE TAFS HAVE
PREVAILING FOG IN THERE. FOR COMPARISON, THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WAS IN SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS MORNING, WHICH DIDN'T SEE
FOG EXTEND TO FWA. THAT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AM, WHICH IS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT COMES FROM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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