668
FXUS63 KIWX 272327
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
727 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE BUT THIS TIME MAINLY FOR
NORTHWEST OH AND NORTHEASTERN IN LOCATIONS
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES (50-80%) WILL
BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO ADVECT WESTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN OH AND
NORTHEASTERN IN LOCATIONS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL BE
MONITORING FOR THIS OCCURRENCE AS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WINDS AS IF THEY ARE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
NOT TOO MUCH ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BUT IF WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER
THAN MORE MOISTURE WOULD WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE AREA INCREASING
THE CHANCES AND LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO PUSH A MORE ZONAL SYNOPTIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON HALLOWEEN AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ON
HALLOWEEN, THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT SO LIKELY NOT
TOO IMPACTFUL TO ANY FESTIVITIES. ON SUNDAY, MOST OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK A FAIRLY COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH BOTH A SOUTHERN
CIRCULATION/TROF AND A NORTHERN TROF AND CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS LOOKS TO BRING A MUCH ACTIVE
PATTERN TO THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A MORE TEMPORARILY
CUTOFF SOUTHERN FEATURE DUE TO THE LACK OF PHASING BUT SYSTEMS
ARE EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY PHASE AND THIS COULD BRING A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. WILL
BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY MAKE FOG
POSSIBLE AS TRAJECTORIES CARRY THE MARINE AIR INLAND. UPPER CLOUD
DENSITIES LESSEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS BECOME
FAVORABLE AT FWA MEANING THE FOG POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT
NEGLIGIBLE THERE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THESE FACTORS, CHANCES ARE
SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IT IN TAFS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT
FOG IS MORE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND ONLY MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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