912
FXUS63 KIWX 222330
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND OFF
OF PIERS!
- DRY, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH ALSO
HAPPENS TO BE WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS (20-40%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
AREA AND CONTINUES AFFECTING US WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL SATURDAY. LOOKING AT NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY
BETWEEN MID JULY AND EARLY AUGUST ON THE ENSEMBLE SIT TABLE, 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 8C HAPPENS ABOUT ONCE IN EVERY 10 YRS OR SO
IN PARTS OF N IN AND NW OH MIDDAY TODAY. THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THIS
PERIOD IS TONIGHT AND THEN WE SLOWLY WARM WITH LOWS BACK ABOVE 60
DEGREES AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG THETA-E PLUME PUSHES BACK THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY
WITH 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS RETURNING OVERNIGHT AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING 18+C AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT,
WE HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US, PUTTING OUR AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, WHICH WOULD SEEM TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF MCSS OR RIDGE RIDERS. SUNDAY MORNING HAS
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR AT LEAST SOME SORT OF
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ENTERING THE AREA. THEN THERE APPEARS TO BE A
MORE CONCRETE UPPER PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
SFC CONVERGENCE ON THE GFS (WITH SOME MODEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE
ECMWF WITH HAVING A SIMILAR PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING) THAT USUALLY OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF MCSS PERHAPS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH AN OCCURRENCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON THE STATE OF THE AREA AFTER THE MORNING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK AT LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IS GONE BY THE TIME WE GET INTO SUNDAY THOUGH.
PERHAPS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER STORMS IS SOME TIME ON
MONDAY. THE GFS HAS BETTER SHEAR IN THE MORNING WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARIES AROUND AS WELL AS INSTABILITY. THE WXNEXT AI MODEL
INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT MONDAY TIME
FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR PREVAILS. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING, GIVING
WAY TO MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. VFR
CUMULUS DEVELOPING AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...HAMMER
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