211
FXUS63 KIWX 231801
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US-24.
- HOT WEATHER SETTLES IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
TRAILING A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. WEAK FORCING AND LACKING MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT, BEST CHANCES WEST OF I-69 LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES. RENEWED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE BULK OF
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY THIS TIME WITH MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LOCALLY BY THIS
TIME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLS OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER FLATTENED QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A RATHER HEALTHY
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER. MAINLY
DRY AND TRENDING WARMER/MUGGY OTHERWISE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. PEAK PM HEAT INDICES MAY NEAR 100F BY MONDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH LIGHT WINDS. KFWA COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF BR
TONIGHT (2-5SM) WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND SOMEWHAT CLEAR SKIES
(DEPENDS ON THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS). FOR NOW, GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONFLICTED MODEL GUIDANCE, LEFT OUT OF THE
TAF. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT, THEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD
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