858
FXUS63 KIWX 191006
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WELL ADVERTISED RETURN TO PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY WX ON TRACK FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER MOISTURE LADEN FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TRACKING EAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, IN TANDEM WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WITHIN NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETS, WILL AID IN
FACILITATING THESE EPISODES OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRST BATCH TO WATCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI (AS OF 06Z) REMAINS ON
TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS AND
QPF. THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TRENDING
WITH SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
US 24 CORRIDOR MID MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT OUTPACES THE
LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE AXIS. MAYBE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST TO AS MUCH AN INCH OR SO UP NEAR THE
IN/MI BORDER WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND.
A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE/CHANCES IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING IN BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E SURGE TONIGHT, FOCUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US 30
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER ROUND THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE ANY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR
RESULTING IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LOCALIZED LOWLAND AND
RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING, REMAINS A
CONCERN GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND OPPORTUNTIES FOR TRAINING
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THIS 1.8-2.0 INCH PWAT AIR MASS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW (IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING). LATEST GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
US 30 CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER PROBS FOR 1-3"+ PLUS. LUCKILY LOWER
PROBS TO THE SOUTH, THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER
ISSUES.
SUPPRESSION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD AND FRONTAL ZONE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS AND LOWER CHANCES FOR
LIGHTER/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DEFINITELY USHER IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR WITHIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 0606 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MI REMAIN ON TRACK TO DROP
THROUGH NORTHERN IN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN
13-16Z AT KSBN, AND 15-17Z AT KFWA. PRIMARILY MVFR TO LOW VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20
KNOTS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF STORMS THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ015-024.
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ078>080-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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