210
FXUS63 KIWX 101035
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
635 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 WHERE UP TO A HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN
TURNING COLDER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE AS SOME
WAA CONTINUES. REMNANTS OF "ISAIAS" WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY MORE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA, GENERALLY THIN IN NATURE
UNTIL THE CIRCULATION EDGES CLOSER. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY QUICKLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR/AFTER 3Z SUN THEN STEADIER
PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 6Z AND LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
69. QPF IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PAST DAYS WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY AT
MOST LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. MODEL BLENDS STILL KEEPING SOME SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THUNDER. LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED (NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS). WILL LEAVE IN
FOR THE TIME BEING.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS ON SUNDAY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER (MAINLY EAST) WHICH COULD HAVE SOME
VALIDITY WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. THESE TEMPS SEEM
TO BE IN THE LOWER PERCENTILE RANGE, SO HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS HIGHS
ALONE AND PASS ONTO THE NEXT SHIFT.
LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BEFORE A
SERIES OF WEAK WAVES AND FRONTS ARRIVE FOR MID WEEK. THEREAFTER, MED
RANGE MODELS HAVE SORT OF DIVERGED SOME ON THE DEGREE OF PHASING OF
A WEAKER NORTHERN AND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. POPS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH SIGNS STILL POINTING TOWARDS COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE DEGREE OF COOLING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP IS IN QUESTION WITH THESE
VARIATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY BUT
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KFWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY CLOSER TO 12Z SUNDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM BUT NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KSBN GIVEN EASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MOISTURE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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