227
FXUS63 KIWX 121009
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
609 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EDGES INTO AREAS WEST OF
IN-15 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN RISK IS DAMAGING WIND, BUT
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO WANE
FARTHER EAST OF IN-15.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AGAIN WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- A MODERATE SWIM RISK EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE FRIDAY AS WAVES REACH 1 TO 3 FEET. BREAKING WAVES
AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE
PIERS, BREAKWALLS, AND RIVER OUTLETS. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS THE MAIN AREA OF VORTICITY FROM THURSDAY'S STORMS PINWHEELS AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
OUR SOUTH, DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS
IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THAT FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
FOR SATURDAY, TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS A VORT MAX
PINWHEELS AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BRINGS
ANOTHER THETA-E PLUME TOWARDS THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR DEW POINTS
INTO THE 60S MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS BACK TOWARDS THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
OVER 1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY TO UNDER 1000 J/KG AT NIGHT AND SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE DROPPING AS WELL. THIS WOULD TEND TO POSE A PROBLEM
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. STILL
THINK SPC'S MARGINAL RISK IS DECENT AT THIS POINT AND ALSO LIKE THE
AREA SINCE IT APPEARS THE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAT WE GO THE WORSE
THE SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS GET.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS BRINGS
ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIR PUSH THAT BRINGS HIGHS DOWN TO THE 70S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. BREEZES
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY REACH 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY EAST OF IN-15.
MORE VORTICITY DROPS SOUTHWARD IN THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FOR TUESDAY
AND THIS ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIES AN UPPER LOW. A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND
QUITE POSSIBLY FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AS THE MAIN AREA OF VORTICITY FROM THURSDAY'S STORMS PINWHEELS AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
OUR SOUTH, DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS RESULTS
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE LEFT OVER THERMAL
GRADIENT CONTRIBUTES TO AN EXCITED LOW LEVEL JET AND THAT PAIRED
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENCOURAGE MIXING OF 20 TO 25
KT GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE LEVEL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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