712
FXUS63 KIWX 191044
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THESE COULD BECOME
SEVERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER
60S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TODAY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM OF BOWING SEGMENTS, LEWPS, AND
OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS IN HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
GENERATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY GIVEN THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING THE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTACT AND GENERATING A CLUSTER
OF STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON. AT THE SAME TIME,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR CLIMATE MAXES ABOVE 1.6
INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST, MBE (MESO BETA
ELEMENTS) MAY HAVE A NET MOVEMENT OF NEAR ZERO AND COULD BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAINFALL, SUSTAINED NON-
CONVECTIVE WINDS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY. RAIN SHOULD END
BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
VERY CHILLY CANADIAN AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA. SKIES WILL
CLEAR MONDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. LOWS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE NEAR 40 OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE PATCHY FROST IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ESPECIALLY AT THE LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AS NEARLY
UNANIMOUS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW/TROF REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD EJECT SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES
DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEK OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS CHALLENGING WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AS BETTER DETAIL BECOMES AVAILABLE. HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS OF
16C TO 19C MIXING ADIABATICALLY DOWN TO THE SURFACE RENDERS HIGHS
FROM 86F TO 92F. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO BE IN THE TOP 10
PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RECORDS OF
86F/87F WHICH WOULD ALSO MATCH THE WARMING FROM 850 AND ECMWF AND
GFS MOS (MODEL OUTPUT). THE INITIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND APPEARS COOLER WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP COOLER AIR NOT FAR TO THE
NORTH. AT THE MOMENT, HAVE HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TERMINALS OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TIMING
CHANGES BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODELS AND RADAR/SAT TRENDS. STILL
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT BUT
CERTAINLY GOOD CHANCES FOR TSRA AT BOTH SITES BUT ESPECIALLY KFWA.
FOLLOWING MORE OF A HRRR SOLUTION FOR TIMING. SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEAR BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION LATTER PART OF VALID PERIOD BUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW WITH FOCUS ON NEAR TERM WEATHER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT MONDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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