389
FXUS63 KIWX 151143
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
643 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN TURN
COLDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-60%) FOR RAIN THEN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A DEEP SOUTH LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MAY YET CLIP AREAS SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR WITH
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, BEST CHANCES (40-60%) MARION TO
PORTLAND IN BEFORE 10 AM. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THE STORY
OTHERWISE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET REMAINS DISPLACED OFF TO
THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR A FEED A MILDER AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
A WARM FRONT REMAINS ON TARGET TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
DEVELOPING SFC LOW EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEPENING, MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW UNDERCUTTING
THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT A ~1" PWAT AIR MASS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LIKELY
CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA COULD GET SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE POTENTIALLY PUSHING HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S.
THE NEXT JET STREAK AND SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN US THEN
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW TAKING A
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER WX THEN SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
A CUT-OFF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
COUPLED WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH HAS ALLOWED AN AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO NUDGE INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS MORNING. KFWA HAS MARKED THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
SOME IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT DOES APPEAR BASED ON
EVOLUTION OF THESE WAVES THAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS REACHED
ITS FARTHEST NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH A LIKELIHOOD THAT KFWA SHOULD
START TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS THIS MORNING. DID INCLUDE AN
HOUR OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL IFR CIG POTENTIAL AT KFWA, BUT GREATER
POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE MORNING MAY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF KFWA. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBN GIVEN TREND
TO CLEARING SKIES, AND GREATER POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS TERMINAL. ANOTHER WEAKER UPSTREAM
MID LEVEL WAVE WILL NOT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT TO
CHANGE ITS PLACEMENT TOO MUCH TODAY, AND THIS GRADIENT MAY SERVE
AS A DELINEATION AS TO THE GREATER POTENTIAL OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST MOST
FAVORED LOCATION OF THIS GRADIENT BETWEEN KSBN AND KFWA, WITH A
HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AT KFWA. TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY,
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WHICH COULD
TRANSITION AN INITIAL FOG SETUP TO MORE OF A STRATUS SETUP
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE, DID
TREND KFWA TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI
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