511  
FXUS63 KIWX 162331  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
731 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 80S.  
 
- VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY FIRES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA'S WEATHER AND  
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND  
50S TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT IN PLACES. FORTUNATELY, WIND  
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER  
HEADLINE CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET, CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY  
OUTDOOR FIRES.  
 
THERE IS A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS THAT WILL MAKE ITS  
WAY INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW MODELS TEASED AT  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THAT MOISTURE BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE  
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THAT NOW LOOKS LESS  
LIKELY. THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT TO THE OHIO  
VALLEY, AND IT WILL INSTEAD MOVE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE  
WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD  
ON SUNDAY THOUGH, AND MAYBE BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION.  
HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS DO NOT AGREE, SO THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2024  
 
QUITE DRY WITH THE 40 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS ONLY DROPPING  
INTO THE MID 50S EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ALLOWS MINIMAL CHANCES  
FOR FOG. WITH NO CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WILL CONTINUE  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. GENERALLY, EAST WINDS PREVAIL AND WILL REMAIN  
WEAKER THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...COBB  
AVIATION...ROLLER  
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