692
FXUS63 KIWX 050622
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US ROUTE
30. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY; A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARMTH AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY! THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. WE ARE
MONITORING A REMNANT MCV LOCATED OVER EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA WITH DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM EDT. AMIDST A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD, MULTICELL
STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BETWEEN 4-11 PM EDT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 2000-2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY
BUT THEY DO ONCE AGAIN DEPICT INVERTED V PROFILES WITH DCAPE
ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WHICH INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS INCLUDE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.5". EVEN IF
STORMS STAY SUB- SEVERE, HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE
HAZARDS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING MAY OCCUR GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL, SATURATED GROUND, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR. IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
TODAY AND TONIGHT, STAY SAFE AND STAY COOL!
CONVECTION EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION, BUT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 40-
70%. ANOTHER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR SETUP IS LIKELY
GIVEN THAT WE WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69, WHERE 20-40%
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
STARTING ON THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
WARMTH AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
LAST EVENING. THE FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NE IL.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. KILX RAOB FROM LAST EVENING DOES DEPICT A MODEST
MID LEVEL JET PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED THUNDER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
THIS LOW/MID LEVEL FEATURE WILL MATURE THROUGH TIME TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC VORT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THIS MID LEVEL
WAVE. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TODAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
IN TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF TERMINALS, BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD AFFECT TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS STRATUS/FOG AS SFC BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHOULD SET UP
GREATEST IFR POTENTIAL AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
INCREASING MVFR POTENTIAL AT KFWA TOWARD DAYBREAK. MVFR CIGS
COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT
FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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