273
FXUS63 KIWX 060608
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP LATER TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NEAR TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON A COMBINATION OF A DEPARTING MCV AND
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. AN AREA OF PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF US 30. THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
HOWEVER, A WEAK FLOW AND VERY LIMITED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE SEVERE THREAT, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING HEAVY RAIN AS
WARM LAYER PUSHES OVER 14,000 FT AND PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2" ARE IN
PLACE. NO PLANS FOR ANY SORT OF WATCH, BUT SHORT FUSE FLOOD
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WHERE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE OCCURRED
IN RECENT DAYS OR WHERE TRAINING CELLS IMPACT A GIVEN AREA.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT MANY MODELS KEEP AT LEAST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN AREAS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY MORNING IT
SHOULD BISECT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME HINTS OF RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING. WHILE CURRENT POPS MAY BE TOO FAR NW, HAVE
LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW. ANY PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY SUNSET MONDAY
IF NOT BEFORE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A FEW DAYS, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
SOMEWHAT (60S VS 70S) AND ENDING PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT
AND MORESO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE IN AS
A SEMI ZONAL FLOW SETS UP. POSITIONING OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
INFLUENCES OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO BRING
MUCH DETAIL TO THE LATER PERIODS SO BLEND OF MODELS LEFT IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO ONLY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL WEAK SYNOPTIC WAVES ARE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL ALSO SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF BROAD NEGATIVE UPPER
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN SFC REFLECTION OF THIS
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE ACROSS OHIO TODAY, BUT
DEFORMATION-TYPE FORCING LAGGING BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA
WILL RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM (30-50% AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS).
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO WANE TODAY, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH TAF ISSUANCE.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AT KSBN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
WITH MORE PROLONGED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KFWA INTO LATE MORNING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT KFWA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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