032
FXUS63 KIWX 012347
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
747 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST TO BE WEST OF INDIANA STATE ROUTE 15.
- BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH A 60% TO 80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SEVERE WEATHER OCCURING, BUT HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY;
REMAINING WARM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
STEADY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, WITH A BLOSSOMING
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM KNOX TO
OUR OFFICE AND TOWARDS DEFIANCE. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDED SOME DRIZZLE
EARLIER TO THE FORECAST AND WILL WATCH TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. OTHERWISE, WE AWAIT THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND EVENTUAL EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW. CAMS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT MAY END UP MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH MAYBE FAR NW AREAS BEING CLIPPED AS THE MAIN AXIS ORIENTS
FROM SE WISCONSIN INTO IL. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES YET TO THE
FORECAST SINCE ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
A BREAK IN THE MODERATE RAIN ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" FROM
ABOUT KNOX, IN THROUGH NAPOLEON AND CONTINENTAL OHIO HAS RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD FIELD FLOODING AND RISING WATER (OR OVERFLOWING OF) ON
AREA WATERWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, BUT
NOT QUITE A SLAM DUNK SCENARIO. THANKFULLY, THE GREATEST RAIN
TOTALS TONIGHT (ABOUT 0.50-1") LOOK TO BE MAINLY WEST OF SR 15
IN INDIANA, WHICH IS DISLOCATED FROM WORST OF THE FLOODING
REPORTS WE'VE RECEIVED SO FAR. RAIN TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE
PROGRESSIVE, RESULTING IN A SHORTER RESIDENCE TIME. AREA- WIDE,
TONIGHT'S RAIN WILL TOTAL ABOUT +/-0.25" TO 0.50", WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY WARM AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT NOW TO OUR
NORTH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR WESTERN COUNTIES, YET THE
DURATION APPEARS BRIEF (6 HOURS OR LESS) AND GUIDANCE APPEARS MOST
ALIGNED WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH RATHER THAN 45 MPH. THE EXTENT
OF AFTERNOON MIXING IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS TO BEGIN THE
DAY. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT FOR ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION.
AFTER A PRIMARILY DRY DAY (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 24 WHERE RAIN ENDS
EARLIEST) WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA ALONG A MEAGER PREFRONTAL AREA. DESPITE BULK
SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS, MUCAPE WILL BE LIMITED TO BARELY 500J/KG.
IN THIS PREFRONTAL AREA, FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES
NEAR 6.5 C/KM AND A GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE. THIS
DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE IMPROVED, YET INSTABILITY
REMAINS PALTRY. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE WORKED OVER
BY THE PRECEDING SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. GENERAL THINKING
REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO, FROM ABOUT 5PM TO
11PM EDT.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY WHEN WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING ANOTHER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHARPLY COLDER BUT
MERCIFULLY DRY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO SEND CLIPPERS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, HAPPY TO
REPORT THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER AT BOTH SITES AS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND INCREASING LIFT ARRIVES
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOME QUESTION ON COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF SHOWER (ISOLATED THUNDER) OVERNIGHT SO SLOWED DOWN
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS A BIT AND OPTED FOR SOME TEMPOS WITH GREATEST
CONCENTRATION POSSIBLY OCCURRING WEST OF KSBN.
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH BY AFTERNOON WITH THE AREA FIRMLY PLACED
IN THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS
IL AND MO AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. OPTED FOR A TEMPO
AT KSBN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR SHOWERS AS SOME
CONCERNS EXIST ON TIMING/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...FISHER
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