697
FXUS63 KIWX 040653
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
253 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
- SUNDAY, NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-60S TO MID-70S, RESPECTIVELY.
- COLD TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
DID ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN HALF
OF BERRIEN COUNTY IN MICHIGAN WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
SOME RETURNS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE BUT WITH THE DRIER LOW
LEVELS MUCH OF IT IS LIKELY VIRGA. ALSO, ADJUSTED LOW
TEMPERATURES UP THIS MORNING BY A FEW DEGREES AS WAA AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE INDICATED BY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS AND THE ADDITION OF SOME CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD
WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY AS OF 2:30 AM EDT ARE STILL IN THE LOW 50S HERE AT THE
OFFICE.
A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
(IN THE UPPER 60S) FOR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHILE HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALSO TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COOL FRONT.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND A COOLER START TO THE WEEK WITH
LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS THEN ONLY
GETTING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S AND EVEN GETTING IN SOME LOCATIONS TO
THE UPPER 30S. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY AS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND IF A BIT DRIER AIR MOVES IN WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT
COLDER TEMPERATURES PERHAPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
STILL WOULD RECOMMEND IF YOU HAVE TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS
OR ANIMALS THAT YOU PROTECT THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION.
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENVELOPES THE REGION BY MIDWEEK
BECOMING MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA
COULD SEE CLOSE TO 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FROM
TEXAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA BUT VERY DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT. PASSING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE, A
FEW DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU ON SUNDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...AGD
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