960
FXUS63 KIWX 141642
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LULL IN GREATER RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (MAINLY WIND) ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 FOR THURSDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WITH A RIDGE ACROSS SE TX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE CONUS,
WAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE AND THEN WORK TO BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE DURING THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE
SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO FORCE THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WHICH ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY,
TODAY. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US-24. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDES NORTHWARD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT STRETCHED DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE PORTION OF THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO RIDE NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT
AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SO, WHILE DEW
POINTS FALL BELOW 60F ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA TONIGHT, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO MOISTEN BACK ABOVE 60F AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE A STRONGER WAVE ON THE ECMWF
BRING AN INCH OF RAIN ACCUMS OVER 6HRS RIGHT UP TO OUR DOORSTEP
THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM SOME STRONGER LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. THIS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DIFFERENT ON THE GFS AS IT
SPLITS THE STRONGER AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO TWO SEPARATE
SMALLER AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND THEN THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS MORE DIFFUSE OR NON- EXISTENT.
THIS PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON OUR MARGINAL CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY ON ITS
LOCATION. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO GET INTO AREAS SOUTH OF US-24
ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE NAM (500 J/KG OR LESS), BUT NOT THE
GFS. INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND THE COLUMN LOOKS VERY MOIST SO
THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND IF IT IS ABLE TO GET THROUGH THE
INVERSION. MODELS HANDLE THE FORCING DURING THIS PERIOD
DIFFERENTLY SO PLACEMENT OF RAIN BULLS-EYES AND INTENSITY OF
THEM ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS NEARLY
RAIN DURING THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF HAS A BULLS-EYE OVER 0.5" NEARBY.
NOW, AT THE SAME TIME AS AN UPPER LOW WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIVES SOUTHWARD AND PUSHES THE REMNANT ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD QUICKLY
AND SWINGS THROUGH LATER FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. SO WE QUICKLY HAVE RAIN (WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT BY THIS POINT) OVERTAKEN BY LAKE ENHANCED RAIN DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DELTA-TS AS MUCH AS 20 TO
30F DEGREES USING LAKE TEMPS AROUND 62 DEGREES. LAKE INDUCED
INVERSIONS RISE UP TO 700 MB ON THESE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH
FAIRLY INCREDIBLE. DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER SURFACE AIR
BEGINS TO WORK IN AND CUT OFF BETTER RAIN FORMATION. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH, MUCH COOLER AIR IS ABLE TO ENTER THE
AREA AND LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S. THIS TURNS THE MIND TO FROST POSSIBILITIES, BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF GRADIENT AROUND AND
PROBABLY THE WIND IS STILL SLACKENING AT THIS POINT. PLUS, WE'LL
STILL HAVE LAKE CLOUDS DISSIPATING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
FROST OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF WINDS ARE ABLE
TO SLACKEN ENOUGH AT THAT POINT.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT, FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS APPEARS TO SLACKEN AND
THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS ESTABLISHED UNTIL EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEAK AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS.
BECAUSE RETURN FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED, EXPECT A WARMING TREND
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE HIGHS AT LEAST BY SUNDAY, IF NOT BY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA.
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR, AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PER SATELLITE TRENDS. DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT BUT MAY END UP TRAPPING LINGERING CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT TOO PESSIMISTIC (CLOUDY) WHEN COMPARED TO
CURRENT SATELLITE, SO, HAVE HEDGED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE GOING
FORWARD.
WIND GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS IN
FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI. LOOK FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page