050
FXUS63 KIWX 141726
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS POSSIBLE. ONE ROUND OF STORMS BETWEEN 5-10 AM EDT
AND ANOTHER FROM 2-11 PM EDT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
- HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLOODING CONTINUE TO POSE THREATS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 15TH, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF STORMS. A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
BACK OVERHEAD. SYNOPTICALLY, OUR NORTHWEST FLOW 'RING OF FIRE'
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US. CAMS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS DEVELOPS IN IOWA
TONIGHT AND THAT THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS MCS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND REACH NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN 08-11Z SATURDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH GIVEN ADEQUATE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS.
GIVEN A LINEAR STORM MODE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ~5 TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES EAST, SO I'D EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF IN-15 IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN
2-11 PM EDT ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
MODELS VARY WIDELY ON A SOLUTION BUT 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR,
100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 SRH, AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 2000 J/KG SBCAPE) MAY DEVELOP. THIS WOULD BE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED,
BRIEF TORNADO. THE AFTERNOON ROUND IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MORNING AND IF THERE IS ANY
CLOUD DEBRIS LEFTOVER THAT PREVENTS CLEARING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THE MORNING ROUND MAY BE THE MAIN SHOW AND THAT NOTHING
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
WORKED OVER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. WPC DOES HAVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND
AREAS SOUTH OF US 24 IN A MARGINAL RISK ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE
GROUND IS SO SATURATED SOUTH OF US 30, WHERE 6-10"+ OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN SINCE THIS PAST TUESDAY, IT WON'T BE HARD TO HAVE SCATTERED
OCCURRENCES OF RENEWED FLOODING. FAR NORTHERN INDIANA, NORTHWEST
OHIO, AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ESCAPED THE WORST OF THE
RAIN RECENTLY BUT SHOULD REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK
OVER THESE AREAS SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY, SOME CONCERN FOR
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, WITH THE NAM AND RAP EVEN SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR THEM TO BE AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES! WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD (99TH PERCENTILE PWATS), ANY STORM
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER WITH RAIN RATES BETWEEN 1-2"
PER HOUR. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED
ROADWAY! IN ADDITION, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS,
SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IN ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE MAY STAY STEADY OR SEE RISES THIS
WEEKEND.
A WELCOME BREAK FROM DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IS AHEAD! WE
FINALLY SEE A REPRIEVE IN THE 'RING OF FIRE' PATTERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
36-48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO DRY OUT, FLOODWATERS TO
RECEDE, AND FOR RIVER LEVELS TO FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS COMES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DRY PERIOD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA,
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF KSBN, BUT TRENDS BE MONITORED.
MEANWHILE, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ON TRACK TO DRIFT OVER
KFWA, OR AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL.
THE FORECAST IS MURKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME
INDICATION THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FESTER
THROUGH THE THE NIGHT. IN CONTRAST, THERE IS MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND 12Z. THE TRAILING
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD, PERHAPS PAIRED WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BROWN
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