985
FXUS63 KIWX 120644
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US 30.
- TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST
ZONES WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MAY BE ENHANCING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. SITES FURTHER INLAND HAVE HAD INSTANCES
OF SIMILARLY SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (2F) BUT NO FOG
REPORTS SO FAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHICH WILL TRAP ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. OVERALL,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING AS IT WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS SUCH AS LA PORTE, SOUTH BEND, AND EVEN PLYMOUTH, IN.
HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAM IN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES (AND 500MB HEIGHTS) WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER (HIGHER) THAN YESTERDAY WHILE MORNING LOWS ARE
CERTAINLY COLDER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THESE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE, THUS, HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO NEARLY MATCH THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN THAT
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND TODAY, WHILE
ALSO WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE BOLSTERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE IN- HOUSE BLEND JIVES WELL WITH
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ITS SOUTHERN-
CWA SOLUTION, OFFERING ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE (>=0.01")
RAINFALL. GIVEN RECENT/ONGOING SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAIN
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE, THE LOCAL FLOOD CONCERN APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME.
NOTABLY WARMER FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES SHAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 REMAIN ON
THE TABLE AND ARE AMONG THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
(E.G., 75% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE MAY BE WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED). AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PRESENTS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
NORTHERN INDIANA REMAINS IN THE INFLECTION ZONE OF A WESTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE AND WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGHING PATTERN.
THIS WILL KEEP THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
GIVEN THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
AT TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
MID/UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS
A SHEARED VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR MINOR EPISODE OF LOW LEVEL CAA ACROSS EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED
WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SOME 2000-3500 FT CU THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, A BROAD 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD YIELD SCT-
BKN VFR CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FT LAYER. GIVEN THE ABOVE WILL
MAINTAIN VFR FORECAST WITH JUST A MENTION OF SOME FEW-SCT MVFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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