894
FXUS63 KIWX 281823
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-40% CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
NORTH OF US 6. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5".
- STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A WET AND SOGGY WEEK IS AHEAD WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE DROUGHT IS ONGOING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT SNOW CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AS A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AIDED BY A 500MB SHORTWAVE, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR
LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM, SO
EVEN THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD FALL NORTH OF US 6, CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO TOO. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS
EVENING (ESPECIALLY ALONG US 24), AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 MAY
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS OPPOSED TO JUST SNOW. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM (LIKELY 0.10" OR LESS), WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5" OR LESS. NONETHELESS, SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CREATE SLICK SPOTS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT,
WATCH OUT FOR SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND SECONDARY
ROADS!
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE REMAIN DRY AREA-WIDE THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST 24 HOURS AGO BUT MODELS HAVE
NOW RESOLVED AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SPILLING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA. ALL POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FOR MONDAY AS IT
APPEARS LIKE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE. IF ANYWHERE DOES GET IN ON AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER, IT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF US 24.
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS AHEAD TO KICK OFF MARCH WITH
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY THIS WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A ~10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY,
WHEN SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24 MAY REACH 70 DEGREES!
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS WEEK WILL NOT ONLY USHER IN THE
MILD AIR BUT ALSO AID IN ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURN. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST
AND MID ATLANTIC, WHICH ALLOWS FOR SEVERAL STATIONARY FRONTS TO
STALL ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THIS
THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR A CONTINUED PARADE OF SYSTEMS THROUGH
OUR AREA AS THE PATTERN GETS INCREASINGLY MORE ACTIVE. SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ON THE TABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND ONWARDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING
IS LOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FIRST INCOMING SYSTEM. THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE THEN BECOMES RAIN AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF US 30. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR FLOODING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN COMES LATE IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WHEN PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 1" AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ADVECTS IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF ~500 J/KG. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT 2-4"
IN QPF FALLING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, WHICH
WILL BE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND WINTER. FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24
WHERE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT HAS PERSISTED SINCE SEPTEMBER. THE
RAIN WILL HELP TO REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE BUT REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAIN OVER OUR AREA MAY OVERWHELM THE THEN SATURATED GROUND AND CAUSE
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE FRONTAL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED FGEN RESPONSE WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY LOW LEVELS
LIKELY RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES EXPECTED IN NORTHERN IN. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER
INTO MVFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OTHERWISE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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