621
FXUS63 KIWX 280520
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1220 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO FOR WIND
CHILLS OF 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 BELOW ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES EXIST INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS WITH PERIODS OF SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS COMMON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
DRY AIR ABOVE A 5K FOOT BASED INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
LAKE EFFECT ORGANIZATION AND A MORE CELLULAR FOR REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. SOME HINTS OF SOME SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT MAY MAKE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HEADING DEEPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. DID EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 06Z WITH AN
EARLIER UPDATE, BUT IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW APPEAR TO BE
GREATLY DIMINISHING. GIVEN FALLING SNOW AND LIKELY LINGERING
HIGHLY VARIABLE ROAD CONDITIONS FROM THE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING EARLY TODAY, WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS HEADLINE TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY. AN
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
WEDNESDAY AM WILL NOT ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME MAGNITUDE TO LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES OVERNIGHT IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE,
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HOLD
ON TONIGHT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD. OVERALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF BOTH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK AND NEW
SNOWFALL. SOME MODELS LINGER THE SNOW SHOWERS BEYOND THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION, BUT PRIMARY REASONING ON THE HEADLINES WERE TO
ADDRESS THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z,
SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY UNCHANGED AND DEFER TO THE EVENING
SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS AND BAND INTENSITY. WIND
CHILLS HAVE "IMPROVED" SOMEWHAT, RANGING FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ZERO (NOT FACTORING IN WIND GUSTS). WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, AREAS AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL SEE AIR TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD, EVEN A LIGHT
BREEZE CAN LOWER WIND CHILLS TO 15 BELOW OR COLDER. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS ONE EXPIRED.
WHILE SOME AREAS IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS NEAR CRITERIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD COVER,
OVERALL DURATION DIDN'T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT PLACING
THEM IN THE HEADLINES.
WHILE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
TAKES PLACE THURSDAY, ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ARRIVES WITH
A STRONG WEST TO EAST ORIENTED TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY
KICK UP THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE AGAIN FRI INTO SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS
COULD BECOME A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SHOT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
QUICKER WITH A BIT MORE MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB ABOVE 540 DM, RESULTING IN HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE 20 DEGREES. DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP THAT NEAR/ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW AS THIS BRIEF RIDGING WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WAVE THAT WILL SLOW ANY POTENTIAL
WARMING. SOME PRECIP COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS WELL, BUT
PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS ANY CONCERNS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING LATE MORNING WILL BRING A BRIEF END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN. HOWEVER, WINDS VEER AGAIN BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND EXPECT MORE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT KSBN, ESPECIALLY AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z THU. THE
EXACT START TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KFWA THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME BKN 4
KFT STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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