499
FXUS63 KIWX 111025
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST MOST POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD.
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- WARM TO END THE WORK WEEK, BUT RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
CALM CONDITIONS PREVAILED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CHILLY AIR HAD SETTLED OVER THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES IN SPITE OF A
BAND OF MID CLOUDS DRIFTING NORTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY MAKE IT
TO AROUND 60 TO 65 DEGREES WITH THE COOL AIR IN PLACE. THE
STAGE WILL THEN BE SET FOR FROSTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, HAVE DEFERRED THE
ISSUANCE ON ANY FROST HEADLINES TO THE DAY SHIFT. AT THIS TIME,
LOW TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
BETWEEN 36 AND 39 DEGREES TONIGHT.
AFTER TONIGHT, MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE VERY DRY LOW AND MID
LEVELS. AM CONCERNED THE BLENDED POPS ARE TOO HIGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DRY LAYERS. MOISTURE FLUX WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE LATE TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SOARING TO
BETWEEN 1.20" AND 1.25". WHILE THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH MEAN STORM MOTION 240/40 KTS, ANY RIGHT
MOVERS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 31. WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THE STRONG STORMS.
AFTER THE BOUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN
BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A GOOD BET LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PER GFS OF 1.50 TO 1.70 INCHES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKE MI VICINITY WILL DEPART TO THE EAST LATER THIS
MORNING TAKING SOME ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE IN WAKE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LOW
COVERAGE DIURNAL VFR CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCOMING LOW
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN INITIALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
TO BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER, MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SOME STRONGER NORTH WIND GUSTS AT KSBN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY GET SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM STILL COLD LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS THIS ANTICYCLONE
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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