316
FXUS63 KIWX 300932
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
532 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 60S
TONIGHT. COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOW 80S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
WEEKEND, BEST POTENTIAL (60-75 PERCENT) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF US 24. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ALONG
THE LA PORTE COUNTY, IN SHORELINE ON SATURDAY. BREAKING WAVES
AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR
BEACHES ALONG BOTH LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
QUIET WEATHER TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
DROPS INTO IA/WI/IL. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
IN/OH/KY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING, AND SO HAVE MOST OF THE POPS AFTER 6 PM EDT ON FRIDAY,
INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAIN, BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. AT
THIS POINT, BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE CWA ONLY AROUND 5-6 C/KM AND
LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY (WE HAVE AROUND 200-400 J/KG AT TIMES,
BEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON). 0-6KM BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOES REACH
AROUND 20-35 KNOTS AT TIMES, BUT WITH THE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LOWER SFC INSTABILITY DON'T THINK WE'LL HAVE ANY KIND OF
SEVERE THREAT (SPC KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDER SAT, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA (CLOSEST TO JAY COUNTY, IN). THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS SOUTH. OTHERWISE, LINGERING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST SOUTH OF US 24 ON SUNDAY (ONLY
HAVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE).
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON LAKE
MICHIGAN TOWARDS SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SUN, WITH WAVES BUILDING UP TO AROUND 3-5 FEET (HIGHEST
WAVES AT LAKE MI BEACHES ALONG SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY, MI AND LA
PORTE COUNTY, IN). EXPECT STRONG LONGSHORE/STRUCTURAL CURRENTS,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTH SIDES OF PIERS/BREAKWALLS. RIP CURRENTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN SANDBARS. HAVE A HIGH SWIM RISK FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY IN BOTH COUNTIES RIGHT NOW, BUT IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER OR
MORE E-NE THAN FORECAST THEN WAVES MAY NOT CLIMB AS HIGH. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ON SATURDAY, MORE E-NE
FLOW (LIGHTER THAN SUNDAY) COULD BRING WAVES UP TO AROUND 2-3 FEET
ALONG LA PORTE COUNTY BEACHES, SO HAVE A MODERATE SWIM RISK
FORECASTED. BOTTOM LINE: IF HEADING TO THE BEACHES ALONG LAKE MI
THIS WEEKEND, MAKE SURE YOU CHECK THE FORECAST BEFORE YOU GO FOR ANY
STATEMENTS ON CONDITIONS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND PAY
ATTENTION TO BEACH FLAGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME VARIABLE/NEARLY CALM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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