380
FXUS63 KIWX 141115
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
615 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
BEFORE ENDING.
- WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -15 ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES START TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S BY
WED AND THURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
FOCUS REMAINS ON IMPACTS OF ARCTIC BLAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA, WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF -20 TO -23 C TRANSLATING INTO AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS (COLDEST OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT). A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LES HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIGHTER RETURNS EVEN
MAKING IT AS FAR AS FWA AND INTO NW OHIO. REPORTS HAVE BEEN QUITE
LIMITED FOR BOTH THE SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EVENT,
BUT SNOW RATIOS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING ROUGHLY 20 TO 30:1 AND SOME
INSTANCES OF EVEN HIGHER RATIOS NOTED. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TRANSLATE SW INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH, BUT SOME CONCERNS IT
COULD LINGER LONGER FROM LA PORTE/ST JOE IN COUNTIES SE TO POSSIBLY
INTO KOSCIUSKO COUNTY PER HRRR RUNS. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
LOWER AND OVER ALL FLOW SLOWLY WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS.
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WHICH SEEM TO
LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES WITH OBS INDICATING
WIND CHILLS ALREADY AROUND -10 AND EXPECTED DROP EVEN MORE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS TODAY, WITH
LOCATIONS NEAR LK MI SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS NEAR 20 AND FAR SW
AREAS MAYBE NOT TOUCHING 10 ABOVE. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A LARGER AREA, BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS FAR N AND NE LOCATIONS. THE BIG CHALLENGE
TONIGHT WILL BE HOW LOW WIND CHILLS GO WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM -4 SW TO 6 NE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP TOWARDS
MORNING, ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO REACH OR EXCEED -15 C OVER THE SW
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES OUT THROUGH 18Z
AND NOT BEING OVERLY COMFORTABLE JUST EXTENDING THEM INTO MONDAY
MORNING GIVEN CONCERNS NOTED, WILL DEFER ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES TO
THE DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS LATEST TRENDS. SUFFICE TO SAY, BUS STOPS
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD.
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND BULK OF COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MON WITH THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMING BRIEFLY ZONAL
TUES INTO EARLY WED, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY HEAD ABOVE
FREEZING STARTING TUESDAY. A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NE PACIFIC EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WAVE TOWARDS THE
REGION, DEEPENING AS IT DOES. THIS WILL CAUSE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
INCREASE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT. MODEL
BLENDS CONTINUE TO BRING 50 DEGREE TEMPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS (MAYBE
OVERDONE, BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
NOT NECESSARILY UNREASONABLE). WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES, ONCE
WE LOSE THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY, WE SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY AS
THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP THROUGH. CAA OCCURS
BEING THE FRONT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AS HIGHS FRIDAY HEAD
BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSBN THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY
SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 4SM AS MULTIPLE BANDS SWING
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 16Z ENDING
ENTIRELY BY 22Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. AT
KFWA, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR LAKE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES COULD CLIP THE TERMINAL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ013-
015-020-022>027-032>034.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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