353
FXUS63 KIWX 111045
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69 THIS MORNING.
- WARM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (40-60%) OF SHOWERS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
UPPER LOW FROM REMNANTS OF TC ISAIAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN TN WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SURGING NORTHEAST. ACROSS THE AREA,
INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE HAS ALLOWED FOR RATHER
LACKLUSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING TRACE
AMOUNTS OR MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS. WHILE A SMALL WINDOW STILL EXISTS
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS FOR A BIT MORE COVERAGE, DOESN'T LOOK
OVERLY PROMISING WITH POPS LOWERED INTO CHC RANGE. ANY PRECIP SHOULD
EXIT BY AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS
WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS.
925 MB MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF CLEARING CAN HAPPEN FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT IN
EASTERN AREAS, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPS WITH
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH THESE FACTORS SEEM
LOGICAL, LACK OF RAINFALL MAY LIMIT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT. WILL LEAVE PATCHY MENTION FOR NOW.
YET ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF WAA COMMENCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD
OF A WAVE. MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A COOL FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS, WHICH WILL BRING SOMEWHAT OF A
TEMP GRADIENT WITH TEMPS WELL IN THE 80S SOUTH AND 70S NORTH. GIVEN
THE LOW TRACK WILL BE NORTH AND MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, ANY LOW
END POPS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY IN LOWER MI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DRIFT SOUTH WED INTO THUR WHICH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WAVES TRAVEL WEST TO EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
VARY ON WHETHER NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL PHASE WITH
GFS/CANADIAN PHASING WHILE EC KEEP MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CUTOFF
TO THE WEST. THIS NOT ONLY BRINGS UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIP CHANCES, BUT
ALSO THE DEGREE OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT KSBN AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT KFWA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KFWA BASED ON
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT KSBN
AS THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY THE EVENING AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POSSIBLE FOG AT KFWA GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IN
DENSE FOG IS LOW GIVEN HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY IN THE
GUIDANCE BUT WORTH AT LEAST AN MVFR BR MENTION FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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