252
FXUS63 KIWX 211126
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
626 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TODAY, ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
- A BRIEF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- BECOMING VERY MILD LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
HIGHS NEAR 50.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REORIENTED THEMSELVES MORE
NORTH/SOUTH WITH THE ACTIVITY REACHING FARTHER INLAND TO SOUTH
BEND AND TOWARD PLYMOUTH. GLERL LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH AREAS > +8C OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS WITH
THE DGZ JUST BARELY IN THE CLOUD LAYER PER GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING
WAS NOT OPTIMUM FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS ALONG WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORT UP TO
2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD LAYER, SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND WHERE THE GROUND IS
SNOW COVERED. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY. A NARROW RIVER OF
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER GFS 295K SURFACE AND SUPPORT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION MAINLY CHANGING
FROM SNOW TO RAIN, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE CAUSING SHORT TERM TRAVEL IMPACTS AS THE
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL LAG SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES.
WILL MENTION SOME BRIEF TRAVEL ISSUES LIKELY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THIS REGARD FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE, VERY MILD
AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REACH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND NEAR OR ABOVE 50
FRIDAY. AN ABUNDANCE OF ENERGY OF MOSTLY PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AND PROVIDE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTHS HAVE BECOME ON THE MARGINAL SIDE.
SOME REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
KEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SOME SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS MORNING, BUT ANY MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER
TO LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS EXTREME NW INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD PROVIDE WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY, AND DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE THIS
EVENING AND SHARPENING OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT
IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE 3K FEET TODAY, WITH ANY MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY SHORT-LIVED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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