284
FXUS63 KIWX 280557
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF WARMER AIR THAT SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE
50S FOR MANY AREAS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF 2 COLD FRONTS THAT WILL
TEMPORARILY END THE WARMER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021
CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM LIE WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AM AND TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
FAST MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SEND YET ANOTHER WAVE NE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A BIT MORE OF A PUNCH TO IT COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHTS WAVE. THAT BEING SAID, THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO
THE N AND W OF THE AREA AND BEST INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STRATUS CONTINUES TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA LEAVING MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HEADING INTO SUNSET.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE TONIGHT, WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVING MID TO LATE EVENING AND THEN LOWERING, ESPECIALLY AS THE
WAVES DRAWS CLOSER. STILL SHOULD BE A RATHER TIGHT CUTOFF TO THE
BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH MORE SCATTERED/PATCHY PRECIP FURTHER NW.
LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL WAA WITH STEADY OR WARMING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. THE END RESULT WILL BE ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAINFALL.
QPF STILL LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT FAR S/SE
AREAS COULD SQUEAK OUT AROUND A QUARTER INCH, TAPERING TO LESS THAN
A TENTH FURTHER NORTH.
WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL, THE RAIN WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GRIDS REFLECTING THIS. THEN WE FOCUS ON HOW WARM
WE GET PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR A FEW DAYS. MOST LIKELY THERE WILL
STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION, BUT SHOULD
NOT IMPEDE THE WARM UP, ESPECIALLY SE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.
EXACTLY HOW FAR NW THIS EXTENDS REMAINS THE CHALLENGE WITH ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP A TOUCH BUT NOTHING
TO DRAMATIC. STRONG MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A BREEZY DAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTS
OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER (IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE SEEN IN SOME
AREAS, EVEN SOME 40 MPH GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2021
COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURNING FOR MONDAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH ONE MORE ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE A DECENT FETCH FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE
PROFILES, DELTA TS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THETAE LAPSE RATES
STAYING WELL IN THE POSITIVE RANGE. HAVE KEPT ANYTHING OUT PRECIP
WISE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. LAST COOLER DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND UPPER FLOW FLATTENS
OUT SOME. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT ITS EXACT IMPACTS AND
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAIN RATHER PROBLEMATIC
WITH GFS BRINING IN A RATHER STOUT 534 DM LOW INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SAT AFTERNOON VS EC WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE.
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED DRY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BRING RAIN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER CEILINGS. SBN WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RAIN, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO BECOME IFR LATER THIS
MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS,
ALTHOUGH MVFR FLIGHT ALTERNATE CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH
CONDITIONS BELOW 020.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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