300
FXUS63 KIWX 020823
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
323 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
- BECOMING UNSEASONABLY MILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
- AN EXTENDED VERY WET PERIOD WILL START TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- RISES ON RIVERS ARE EXPECTED. SOME RIVERS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH
ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, ALBEIT WITH A SHORT BREAK
LATER TODAY. AT THE ONSET, A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WAS
MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND WAS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
IN SOUTHWEST OF LAF. MIXED PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING AS CLOSE
AS CMI. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA
INDICATED THE PRECIPITATION WAS ALL SNOW. BUFKIT GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCLUDING LAF INDICATED THE PRECIPITATION WOULD STAY
ALL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER CLOUD IN THE DGZ AND
WITH THE ENTIRE SOUNDING BELOW 0C. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION AS JUST LIGHT SNOW, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.
AS THE MILD AIR SPREADS NORTH OVER THE COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. GIVEN EARLY MORNING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING, LIGHT ICING IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
AFTER THE SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW, A MILD AND VERY WET PATTERN
WILL FOLLOW. ALTHOUGH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S APPEAR
TO BE JUST OUT OF REACH DURING THIS EXTENDED MILD PERIOD,
ANOMALOUSLY MILD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES APPEAR ON
TRACK WITH HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE. THE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HYDROLOGY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME CENTER ON RISES ON RIVERS LATE
THIS COMING WEEK. THE LATEST WPC RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
7 DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INDICATE AMOUNTS FROM 1.25" TO ABOVE
2.50 INCHES. GIVEN ANTECEDENTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW
RIVER LEVELS AT THE ONSET, ANY RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY TO
BEGIN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO
THE SOUTH WILL EXIT AROUND 12Z BUT MORE HIGH CLOUDS RETURN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY BY TUESDAY MORNING BUT THAT IS JUST OUTSIDE
THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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