779
FXUS63 KIWX 261013
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
613 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
ANOTHER SUNNY SKY DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IS AHEAD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID AND UPPER 40S. AFTER ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. PERIODS OF WET WEATHER ARE
AHEAD THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S, WELL BELOW THE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR
FREEZING. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
A WET AND SOMEWHAT MILD PERIOD IS SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ENERGY WAVES
EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS, WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE
0.8 INCH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST IN THE 0.8 TO 1.2 RANGE INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG WAVE WITH A VERY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE
NEAR 40N AND 140W THIS MORNING WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN LOW AND
TRACK EAST. INDICATIONS ARE THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED AND IS
TRACKING THIS SYSTEM TOO FAST, SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THE LATEST WPC FORECAST
HAS 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN SEVERAL
FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INCLUDING
MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING EAST, HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS, A
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SOMEWHAT OF A TROPICAL CONNECTION,
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE ESF (HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK) THAT
WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY WILL BE UPDATED TO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE CONCERNS. COLDER AIR WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2019
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT DOMINATE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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