232
FXUS63 KIWX 010528
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1228 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OF -10F TO -15F. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOME COUNTIES.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW, BUT
COULD CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTES.
- NOT AS COLD THIS WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 20S
AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS (FLURRIES) CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRIDAY'S UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE KS-OK BORDER BACK BUILDS NORTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST BRINGING
CALM CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WERE A
DOUBLE-EDGE SWORD WHEN DECIDING ON A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ABOUT
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE OUT AMID FRESH SNOWPACK WHILE ALSO ALTERING THE AIR
TEMPERATURE NEEDED TO MEET OR EXCEED A -15F WIND CHILL. CONDITIONS
ARE OVERALL MARGINAL, BUT CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW WERE THE TIP
IN FAVOR OF A HEADLINE. SUNDAY FEATURES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE
BEST MOISTURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LOW CENTER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS GREATLY REDUCES LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS AS THIS BREEZES
THROUGH. AN ELEVATED DGZ (LOCATED ABOUT 5-8K FT HIGHER THAN RECENT
DAYS) ALONG WITH ANTECEDENT DRY AIR POINTS TO A QUICK HITTING
DOSE OF LIGHT SNOW (< 1") THAT BEGINS RIGHT NEAR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE IN THE GREATER SOUTH BEND AREA. LAKE ENHANCEMENT
COULD INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES FOR A BRIEF TIME FOR LAKE-
ADJACENT COUNTIES. WHILE LOW SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED,
TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES MONDAY. SNOW ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW PERHAPS LINGERING
IN FORT WAYNE FOR THE MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS CLIPPER LACKS ANY PROLONGED ARCTIC
BITE WITH WIND VECTORS PARALLEL TO 850MB ISOTHERMS. THIS MEANS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S NOT ONLY
ON MONDAY, BUT TUESDAY AS WELL. NORTHWEST FLOW SHARPENS
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT IS POISED TO PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
YET, BECAUSE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A TIGHT 850-MB THERMAL GRADIENT NOTED.
LATE WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A DEVELOPING LOW DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO MICHIGAN WHICH THREATENS TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
TO OUR AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS
WAKE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW AND GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A
TREND TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES AND SEVERAL SITES AROUND THE
AREA ARE BEGINNING TO REPORT IT. WILL START CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW
WITH BEST CHANCES AT KSBN BUT AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. IF FOG
DEVELOPS IT WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING BUT VFR IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ARRIVE JUST AFTER 06Z MON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ006>009-017-018-022>027-032>034.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ080-
081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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