098
FXUS63 KIWX 262341
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING NORTH
OF US-30 WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY ARRIVE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG/SOUTH OF
US-24, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED STARTING AT EARLY
AS MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO AT
LEAST FRIDAY AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OVERALL COOLING AT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
INITIAL FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE THE LAST
WE SEE FOR A WHILE. RADAR IS SHOWING RETURNS WELL NORTH EVEN
INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND EVENTUALLY LOWER MI. HOWEVER, DESPITE
THE NOTED LIFT THE AIR MASS IS A GOOD DEAL DRIER WITH FURTHER
NORTH EXTENT AS DEPICTED BY MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER
SOUTH, CIGS ARE A BIT LOWER, BUT STILL RATHER HIGH WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NO REAL IMPACTS OR EVEN MEASURABLE RAIN SO
FAR. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND POCKETS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THERE WILL BE
SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOMEWHAT HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24 THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS MO TO ARRIVES. THAT BEING SAID, MODELS ARE VARIED ON
BOTH TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF BETTER QPF POTENTIAL.
ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED, DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM AT THIS TIME. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24 WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR POSSIBLE QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF SUMMER, WITH A VENGEANCE,
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS OF
+19 TO +22 WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 90S
STARTING IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY
INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND LITTLE MEANINGFUL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.
EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT 700 MB TEMPS IN THE +11 TO +13 RANGE WILL CREATE A
FORMIDABLE CAP THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE MAYBE SOME DECREASE
IN MID LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. IF A STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP
ANYWHERE, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WOULD OCCUR GIVEN PWATS OVER 2"
AND LITTLE OVERALL STEERING FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LIKELY
RESULTS IN VFR FOR KSBN AND MVFR FOR KFWA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF KFWA THOUGH AND
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THEY COULD SNEAK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.
FUEL-ALTERNATE CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KFWA AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY SAT MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED
BY SAT EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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