378
FXUS63 KIWX 111051
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING,
BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES. THE BEST
CHANCES NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- FRIDAY, CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS (45+
MPH).
- LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WE'RE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING WINTRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. AS OF NOW, THE MOST FAVORED TRACK FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS MICHIGAN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
FROM MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THAT WILL BE ON THE DECLINE OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH TORNADO BEING A CLOSE
SECOND THREAT. THE RISK FOR HAIL IS LOW.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SIGNAL THE TRANSITION FROM SEVERE
WEATHER TO HEAVY RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES DO COOL OFF, SO COULD SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIX IN AT TIMES, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHILLY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN (50 TO 60 PERCENT
NORTH, 10 TO 20 PERCENT SOUTH) THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WHEN
WESTERLY WIND GUST NEAR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DID INCREASE THE WINDS
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, AND IT APPEARS THAT
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IF THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WE'RE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS COMING WEEKEND AND
BRING RAIN TO THE SOUTH, AND A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTH. THIS
STORM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, SO THE TRACK WILL CHANGE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST MEDIUM THAT THERE WILL BE STORM TO BRING
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO SOME LOCATIONS. AT THIS POINT, THE MORE
LIKELY LOCATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NORTH OF THE REGION, ACROSS
MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER, THERE
WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM, BUT THAT ALSO
DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND WE'LL HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON IT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FOR KFWA THROUGH 14Z OR SO WITH VEERING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS WITH THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXITING THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH VSBYS MAINLY MVFR BUT
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY FOR KSBN BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z THU.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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