787
FXUS63 KIWX 100942
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
542 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING, THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- LESS HUMID AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK
LEAVING PRIMARILY DRY/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY DRIVEN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
CONVECTION THEN ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS (~2000 J/KG OF CAPE). THE OVERALL WEAK FORCING/SHEAR/FLOW
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO STORM ORGANIZATION, LEAVING LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PULSE-TYPE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT WILL FORCE THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS
SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF
THE AREA DRY AND LESS HUMID. THERE REMAINS MIXED SIGNALS IN
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON IF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A MCS
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS CLIPS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH OF
US 30 IN IN AND SOUTH OF US 24 IN OH.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON
TRACK TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND MIDWEST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT A LID ON ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW-MID 90S BY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY MAKE A RUN AT 100 BY THIS
TIME, THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO
OUR PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE. LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR CONVECTION THEN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES TEND TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIGHT WINDS, MOIST LOW LEVELS AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALLOWING
FOR PATCHY BR/STRATUS FORMATION ACROSS NW IN EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THIS FILLS IN AT KSBN REMAINS
LOW, BUT DID OPT TO HOLD ON TO A TEMPO MVFR GROUP THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRY/VFR OTHERWISE THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN IN. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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