649
FXUS63 KIWX 281634
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1134 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TODAY WITH WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS 60 TO 65.
- SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY WITH STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS.
- VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT WITH A FLASH FREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BY EARLY MONDAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING MONDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THIS
WEEK. AT THE ONSET, A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG NORTH OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE RAIN AND
AREAS OF DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO THE AREA. A
SURFACE LOW WILL RACE NORTHEAST FROM WEST CENTRAL IL ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST AND IS LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
AFTER MUCH COORDINATION, HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST, STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES
FALL 40 TO 45 DEGREES OVER SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. ICY
SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON MAINLY SECONDARY ROADS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS AND STRONG WINDS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FROM
06Z MONDAY NIGHT TO 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT (ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT). THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD HAVE
RATHER HIGH SNOW RATIOS (15:1 RISING TO 20:1). STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY ON
NORTH/SOUTH ROADS IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE
MICHIGAN INCLUDING AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD.
VERY COLD WEATHER WILL ENSUE THE MILD PATTERN. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL
VALUES TO FREQUENTLY DIP INTO THE -5 TO +10F RANGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
PERIODS OF RAIN, EMBEDDED THUNDER AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KSBN JUST NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT. THIS
FEATURE LIKELY CLEAR KFWA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO AT LEAST
IFR TO LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP.
WHETHER KSBN TRULY GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR IS UNKNOWN, BUT
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
(AND AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS) MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING
LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN PROVIDES STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS. KSBN
WILL SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SETTLE IN LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ACCUMULATIONS AND TIMES OF LIFR/IFR VISBYS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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