863
FXUS63 KIWX 240449
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND. HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- PRIMARILY DRY THIS WEEKEND BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST IS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN MONDAY (30-60% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON; FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS IS COURTESY OF A TROUGH DEPARTING THE
NORTHEAST US WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS VAST
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS IN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY WARM IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT STRAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON (20% CHANCE) AS THE WESTERN US RIDGE
SPILLS INTO WESTERN INDIANA AND EVEN CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
WEEKEND. THERE SOME SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL AMID A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT,
INCREASING SHEAR, AND APPROACHING 70-KNOT 500MB JET.
A SIMILAR SETUP BREWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DROPS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RECENT SLIGHT-RISK SEVERE
WEATHER DAYS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, AND THIS ONE APPEARS NO
DIFFERENT. AS A RESULT, DETAILS ARE SPARSE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S (NEAR-90 SUNDAY) AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM, ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THE FRINGE OF AN UPPER-ELVEL RIDGE NOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THIS FLOW WILL NEED TO
COMPETE WITH EASTERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, BUT VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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