609
FXUS63 KIWX 111118
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
618 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS WARM TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT PAIRED WITH INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA, PROMOTE COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING.
STRATUS IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUCH THAT STEADY TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-30S SO FAR WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S MOMENTARILY. CLOUD
COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY TODAY. AS
STATED ABOVE, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONGEST THIS MORNING BEFORE
850-MB RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TO PRESENT NEUTRAL ADVECTION.
PAIR THIS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 30S ARE A LIKELY OUTCOME. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF STRATUS RETURNS
THIS AFTERNOON FROM MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN OR FROM STATUS
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL MI, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE
THREATENS TO LOCK-IN ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS. NO CLEAR CONCENSUS
ON THIS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SO, HAVE STAYED SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
EXISTING FORECAST BUT OFFER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND THAT LOOKS TO PRESENT A 20% CHANCE OF
RAIN, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS ARRIVES ONSHORE OF THE BAJA
TOMORROW, THUS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL BE ON THE RISE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
AND A DEPARTING UPPER- LEVEL LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL STORM TRACK OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY LOW. THIS
LOW GENERALLY EMERGES AMID A BROAD RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WHICH WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN 60 APPEARED SUSPICIOUS. HOWEVER, AMID ALL AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE, OUR ADVERTISED HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE (E.G., WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE, THERE IS ONLY A 25%
CHANCE OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE WARMER THAN 53 DEGREES ON TUESDAY).
THIS INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DON'T PROCLAIM WINTER IS OVER YET...THIS IS NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER
ALL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME STEEP NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES TODAY. MODEL
TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME STRONG MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAPID SCATTERING AT KSBN. SOME
CONCERN PERSISTS THAT TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH SHALLOW INVERSION
COULD KEEP IN SOME MVFR CIGS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT
KFWA, AND AT LEAST AT TIMES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT KSBN. SOME
INDICATIONS STILL PERSIST THAT A BRIEF WINDOW OF CIGS BELOW 2000
KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME AT KFWA AS THE ONSET OF
BETTER DIURNAL MIXING COULD PROMOTE SOME BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS WHEN
COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LOWER AT KSBN AS SOME
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DUE TO
AN INCOMING RIDGE AXIS. THOSE SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHWEST GUSTS TODAY, BUT THESE
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS AS INCOMING LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS ALLOWS FOR QUICK DECOUPLING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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