000
FXUS63 KIWX 071020
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
620 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR 2 HAVE SHOWED MORE AREAS
SEEING PATCHY, IF NOT AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE, I OPTED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM EDT. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR FOG TO BECOME
WORSE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE LIFTING SO MAKE SURE TO USE
CAUTION FOR YOUR MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A FEW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING IN SE PARTS OF THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALSO MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH VSBYS NEAR OR BELOW 1/2SM IN NE
AREAS AND MORE HIT AND MISS IN OTHERS, FOCUSED ON AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE
INTO A MOIST, MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING PEAK HEATING
TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOME AREAS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED, AS WAS NOTED
YESTERDAY THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND REPEATED TRAINING IN A FEW AREAS
CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN TOTALS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING TO HANDLE
THE EXPECTED COVERAGE.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PARTS OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN STALL, POTENTIALLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
BRING CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME
INCREASED CONSISTENCY IN PORTIONS OF IL/IN SEEING A GREATER
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE SIGNALS HAVE INCREASED, NOT BY ANY MEANS A SLAM DUNK AS
SIMILAR SETUPS IN PAST WEEKS HAVE NOT FULLY TRANSPIRED AS TIMING
OF WAVES AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO PIN DOWN
THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MAIN VSBY AND CIG IMPACTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN AT KSBN, BUT
CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN FOR A PERIOD AT KFWA FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE IMPROVING AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AFTER THIS, FOCUS SHIFTS
AGAIN TO THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PREVIOUS THINKING REMAINS INTACT WITH COVERAGE AND OVERALL RISK
NOT WARRANTING MORE THAN PROB30 FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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