940
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND
MONDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM 11 PM EDT SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EDT MONDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM
2 PM EDT TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AGAIN.
- NOT AS HOT BY MIDWEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
- HIGH SWIM RISK TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONTINUED WAA AND A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAKE
FOR A HOT AND HUMID SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MID LEVEL STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. SKIES MAY APPEAR HAZY AT
TIMES AS SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DRIFTS IN BUT REMAINS ELEVATED. NO IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY OR
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FUEL AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z AND 06Z CAM GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON
WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT TIMING IS
TRENDING SLIGHTLY LATER ON THE FIRST POSSIBLE ROUND OF STORMS
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE STORMS ENTERING OUR AREA AS LATE AS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION THIS
EVENING IN WISCONSIN; IF AN MCS FORMS, THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WHETHER IT MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH INTO OUR AREA
IS UNCERTAIN, HENCE A BROAD MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BY SPC. IF ANY STORMS DO MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXIST ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR MONDAY WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVERHEAD DUE TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SHOULD THERE BE STORMS
IN THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, LINGERING CLOUD DEBRIS COULD
CERTAINTY DELAY THE TIMING BUT FOR NOW THINKING SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE WITHIN A BROAD WINDOW OF 2 PM EDT MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY. WITH UP TO 3000- 4000 J/KG SBCAPE, 30-50 KTS OF SHEAR,
AND 7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR MATURE MCS AND PROPAGATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREAT. A BRIEF EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 0-1 SRH VALUES APPROACH 150-200
M2/S2 MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL SEE A REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S MIDWEEK. INTERMITTENT RAIN/STORM CHANCES
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY,
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW, STRONG STRUCTURAL, RIP, AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. STRUCTURAL CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PIERS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND STAY OFF OF
THE PIERS! BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRATUS BUILDING ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO AROUND 3000
FT AT BOTH KFWA AND KSBN. LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK, WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD COVER,
A MOIST AIRMASS IS ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH MEANS PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH RAIN/STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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