724
FXUS63 KIWX 211731
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH WITH POCKETS OF TWO INCHES
OR MORE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WAS PREVIOUSLY
SOME MARGINAL CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF US-24, BUT
THIS HAS SINCE BEEN PULLED FARTHER SOUTH GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WHILE EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND GOOD BULK
SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KTS, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
AND OVERALL MODEST INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD
WATCH HERE. MOST OF OUR AREA MISSED OUT ON HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A WIDESPREAD 1" EVENT, EVEN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 2".
SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY MONDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S. WE WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WET WEATHER DISTURBANCE SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST NBM/HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS PRIMARILY LOWERING INTO MVFR THIS
EVENING, WITH IFR LATER TONIGHT AT MAINLY KFWA GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE NEAR SURFACE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION. KSBN LIKELY DRIES OUT WITH A MVFR STRATOCU DECK
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW (AFTER 11-12Z), WHILE
THIS OCCURS MORE TOWARD THE MIDDAY HOURS AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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