963
FXUS63 KIWX 030636
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
236 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WARMUP AND TURNING BREEZY TODAY INTO MONDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-40%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) INCREASE
MID AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (WIND/HAIL).
- TURING COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- COOL MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL BRING TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THERE
ALSO REMAINS A ~3 HOUR WINDOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK IMPULSE AND PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGRESS THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED TO HOLD POPS IN
THE 20-40% RANGE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW
LEVELS. DRY WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE, WITH WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES.
ONGOING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, PRECEDING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SHOULD
BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 70S, AND SBCAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LIFTING INTO THE AREA
IN TANDEM WITH A LEAD PERTURBATION APPROACHING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION (40-60%)
MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) FOR THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN MODEST SHEAR/BUOYANCY PROFILES, WITH
LACKING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NEBULOUS FORCING LIMITING A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
ATTENTION LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A TREND
BACK TO COOLER TEMPS AND PERIODS OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER AS A SLOW
MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
COULD BE SOAKING RAIN (1" PLUS) FOR SOME GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT
WITH MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO RIVER RISES AND LOCALIZED PONDING ISSUES.
BLOCKY PATTERN WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING IN PLACE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE MIDWEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE AND CORRIDOR OF
DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY SETTLES WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THOUGH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE
THROUGH IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST BEING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GUSTS 25 KNOTS PLUS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT
ELEVATED SHOWERS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE (20-30% FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN) THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRACKS THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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