667
FXUS63 KIWX 141713
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE HEAT IS UPON THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPS GREATER THAN 18C ARE
ALOFT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
BUT THE LOWER BOUNDS OF THE TEMPERATURE RANGE IS NOT LOW ENOUGH TO
MAKE THIS UNCERTAINTY A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
FOR HEAT THIS TIME AROUND IS THE EXTENT OF HUMIDITY THAT THE AREA
DEALS WITH. GIVEN THE RECENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION, CROP
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAY HAVE A MORE LIMITED RESPONSE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE MOISTURE WITHIN THIS RIDGE IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE GULF. THE ECMWF AND THE
NAM BOTH APPEAR TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 7C/KM, BUT
THERE ARE MODELS THAT WANT TO REDUCE HUMIDITY DURING THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING, WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US-24. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SMOKE IS WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA ON THE HRRR WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT TEMPERATURE.
IF THESE FACTORS GO THE OTHER DIRECTION AND INCREASE, THE
POSSIBILITY IS THERE FOR A HEAT WARNING IN THE VICINITY OF FORT
WAYNE EAST AND NORTH (GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-24). HAVE AT
LEAST ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 104
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ISSUE WITH THURSDAY IS THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT
EDGES TOWARDS THE AREA. COOLING/DRYING APPEARS TO OCCUR IN SOME
MODELS TO VARYING EXTENTS AND THE FULL SUITE OF MODELS PRODUCE RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON LENDING LESS CONFIDENCE IN RETAINING HEAT
HEADLINES THEN. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD FOR FRIDAY
SO HEAT HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES INCREASE THEN AS WELL.
SPEAKING OF RAIN CHANCES, MODEL CONFLUENCE EXISTS AROUND PUSHING THE
RIDGE CENTER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US/MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY,
REINTRODUCING GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE RETURN
OF AT LEAST AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
JET KINEMATICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO CELL INTERACTIONS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN WHAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE A BORDERLINE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE AT BEST. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT STEERING POINTS TO AN MCS MOVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THERE'S A CHANCE THAT THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD EARLY AND AFFECTS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF NW OH AND S LOWER MI. OTHERWISE, MODEL
CONFLUENCE OCCURS AROUND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY/ SAT NIGHT. BETTER JET KINEMATICS AND INSTABILITY
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA MEANING SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
FAVORABLE TIMING. WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH MONDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WITH A GOOD COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR DRY, QUIET CONDITIONS WITH
VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>024-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-
032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR INZ020.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
INZ103-203.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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