147
FXUS63 KIWX 021757
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
157 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A 50% CHANCE TO SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
- MILDER AND BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS.
- WARM AND BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES (40%) FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BEYOND MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
(50-80%) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS ALLOWS WARMER AIR AND CLOUDS TO COME
IN TO THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS PUSHES THE AXIS OF COLD AIR
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND PROVIDES A BIT OF A FLOOR FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WARMING WINDS MAY PICK UP EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TO STUNT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PRECLUDE FROST CHANCES
ALTOGETHER. GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF MID TO UPPER 30 LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, STILL WENT WITH A FROST ADVISORY MAINLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF IN-15.
WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH ON SUNDAY, SOME SHOWERS SWING
THROUGH. WITH HOW DRY DEW POINTS ARE, RISING FROM THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT BACK INTO THE 40S BY DAY'S END SUNDAY, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE RAIN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST. BECAUSE
EVERYTHING COMES INTO THE AREA PIECEMEAL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, BUT THEY NEVER
REALLY HIT 60 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POCKETS OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE ATTEMPT TO GET INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME ACCORDING
TO THE NAM, BUT THEY'RE REALLY NOT ENOUGH TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE
THE NAM INDICATING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT ATTEMPT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET TO
BRING IN BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAINTAIN BETTER SHEAR (30
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SOME LOW LEVEL TURNING OF WINDS), BUT WE
DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AIDE IN BETTER LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WE GET TO TUESDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO MAKE THE
LIMITING FACTOR BE THAT THE INGREDIENTS NEED TO LINE UP FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IS THE LATE DAY LIFTING WARM FRONT ENOUGH TO HELP
INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS? IT'S HARD TO SAY. AGREE WITH THE
SPC THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND WIND, BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A
BOTTLENECK IN THE FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IT APPEARS THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA STALLS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SOMEWHERE,
WHICH MEANS ITS ULTIMATE LOCATION MATTERS IF WE ARE GOING TO GET
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OR NOT. AS SUCH, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT
NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE RAINFALL APPEARS TO LIE IN
THE 24 HOURS PRIOR TO 12Z WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY SOUTH OF US-24. THIS
CORRESPONDS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT MOVES
THROUGH THIS AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AFTER 12Z SUN BRINGING
INCREASES IN WINDS, LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR MVFR, AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ESPECIALLY FOR KSBN.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z TO 17Z SUN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ079>081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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