433
FXUS63 KIWX 121135
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
635 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US 30.
- TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST FORECAST
ZONES WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE MAY BE ENHANCING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. SITES FURTHER INLAND HAVE HAD INSTANCES
OF SIMILARLY SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (2F) BUT NO FOG
REPORTS SO FAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WHICH WILL TRAP ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. OVERALL,
DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING AS IT WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS SUCH AS LA PORTE, SOUTH BEND, AND EVEN PLYMOUTH, IN.
HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAM IN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES (AND 500MB HEIGHTS) WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER (HIGHER) THAN YESTERDAY WHILE MORNING LOWS ARE
CERTAINLY COLDER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED THESE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE, THUS, HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO NEARLY MATCH THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN THAT
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ANTICIPATED
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND TODAY, WHILE
ALSO WITHIN THE TIME FRAME OF MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE BOLSTERING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE IN- HOUSE BLEND JIVES WELL WITH
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN ITS SOUTHERN-
CWA SOLUTION, OFFERING ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE (>=0.01")
RAINFALL. GIVEN RECENT/ONGOING SNOW MELT AND HEAVY RAIN
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE, THE LOCAL FLOOD CONCERN APPEARS MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME.
NOTABLY WARMER FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES SHAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 REMAIN ON
THE TABLE AND ARE AMONG THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
(E.G., 75% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE MAY BE WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED). AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET PRESENTS AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG TO FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE THIS POTENTIAL GREATER AT KSBN IN COMPARISON TO
KFWA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KSBN, BUT ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN MVFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND
14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, AN EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK HAS FORMED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING RESULTING FROM
SOUTHEAST TRACK OF SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS FGEN FORCING THIS MORNING
AND LITTLE MOVEMENT TO BAROCLINIC ZONE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KSBN/KFWA, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF OCCURRENCE MID MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN
THE LOWEST 1-2K FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD
SOME ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS LONGER FORECAST DISTANCE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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