930
FXUS63 KIWX 101836
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- THE PERSISTENT SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY, SLOWLY
MELT THIS WEEK.
- 20-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE ANY SNOWPACK REMAINS.
- MILD AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
EARLIER, AROUND MIDDAY, TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO STRONG WAA. SOUTH OF US 24, UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WERE OBSERVED! THIS MILD AIR IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 18Z, IT
IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE, A HIGHER
SUN ANGLE, AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING DURING THE DAY
WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TO THE 40S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE PERSISTENT SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MELT
THIS WEEK. CONSIDERING THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF THE SURFACE
GROUND STILL FROZEN, ANY WATER FROM MELT SHOULD RUNOFF INTO AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS RATHER THAN SOAK INTO THE GROUND.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA, EVENTUALLY BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN CUTOFF FROM THE JETSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON EXACT TRACK,
TIMING, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE(S). OUR FORECAST AREA GETTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ALSO DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. WE MAY END UP SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS AND NOT GET ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. IF IT DOES
PRECIPITATE, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIME OF
DAY (RAIN VS SNOW). AS FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS AS RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
SUNDAY GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING. THERE
MAY BE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOWPACK REMAINING, IF IT DOES RAIN
ON SUNDAY, MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A
DECENT SIGNAL FROM LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY POTENTIALLY
EVEN RISE INTO THE 50S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SNOWPACK
DETERIORATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD EVEN AS A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS PASS THROUGH. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS THE MAIN IMPACTFUL ONE
AND THIS BRINGS ADVERSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA STARTING
AROUND 4Z AS MVFR CIGS ARRIVE. THIS STRATUS DECK IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS FURTHER ENFORCED BY THE SUSTAINED
WINDS WHICH LOOK TO STAY AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE SREF SHOWING HIGHER
CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MI ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING FWA, BUT WOULD THINK THAT'S ONLY GOING TO
BE THE CASE IF WINDS BECOME SLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW HAZE OR FOG
FROM THE MELTING SNOW BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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