341
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
744 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STORMS NOT SEVERE, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED STORMS AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARM NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO 85.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT
WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS CAUSING A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SURROUNDING AREAS. DEW POINTS WERE ONLY IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 EARLY TODAY. THIS CHILLY PATTERN WILL BRING
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.
AFTER TONIGHT, ENERGY IN THE FORM OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL EJECT
EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE MIDWEST AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH AND REACH BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00" FRIDAY PER GFS. OVERALL
WIND SPEEDS AND SUBSEQUENT WIND SHEAR SHOULD STAY WEAK. EXPECT
STORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. A
LARGE CAPPING INVERSION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY
WHEN SOME ENERGY IS ABLE TO EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND MAKE IT INTO THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD, BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING SOME POCKETS OF
STRATUS (UPPER END MVFR TO LOW END VFR) THAT MAY EDGE NORTH WITH
TIME ON FRIDAY. 925/850 MB MOISTURE PROFILES SEEM TO HOLD OFF ON
THE BULK OF POSSIBLE FLIGHT IMPACTS TO KFWA TILL AFTER 18Z.
UNSRE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO KSBN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, SO
HAVE ADDED A MVFR CIG AT KFWA ONLY AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITES UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
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