233  
FGUS73 KDDC 132255  
ESFDDC  
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-  
119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-272100-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
455 PM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
   
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1
 
 
THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO THE DODGE CITY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)  
WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...  
 
- THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM THE KANSAS-COLORADO STATE LINE TO BELOW  
LARNED, KANSAS  
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS IN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES  
- THE WALNUT CREEK IN NESS AND RUSH COUNTIES  
- THE PAWNEE CREEK AND BUCKNER CREEK  
- THE RATTLESNAKE CREEK AND CROOKED CREEK  
- THE CIMARRON RIVER AND MEDICINE LODGE RIVER  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 13TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 27TH 2020.  
 
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED  
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,  
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.  
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA  
RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR  
LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.  
 
OVER THE PAST THREE MONTHS, AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNT RANGED FROM  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO  
AS MUCH AS 1-2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FROM CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OVER THE PAST YEAR, PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE UP TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION  
WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST, INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WERE  
AS MUCH AS 4-8 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SINCE THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EAST OF A LINE  
FROM ELKHART TO DIGHTON AND WAKEENEY, HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS 150 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MUCH OF THIS  
PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SOME SNOW AROUND THE LAST  
WEEKEND OF DECEMBER.  
 
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE IN THE 70TH TO 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS  
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE AREAS FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE  
COLORADO BORDER, LEVELS WERE RUNNING AROUND THE 50TH PERCENTILE.  
THANKS TO THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT THE AREA HAS RECEIVED THIS WINTER,  
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE EITHER REMAINED LEVEL OR INCREASED BY AS  
MUCH AS 20 MM SINCE NOVEMBER 30TH. THE AREAS TO SEE THE MOST INCREASE  
WERE FROM AROUND DODGE CITY TO HAYS AND LARNED.  
 
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU)  
ISSUED FEBRUARY 6, 2020 SHOWS THAT MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2)  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN EARLY  
FEBRUARY. OTHER THAN SOME ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WAS  
DROUGHT FREE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE MODERATE  
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT EXISTED IN DECEMBER 2019.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK  
RELEASED ON JANUARY 16, 2020 AND VALID THROUGH APRIL 2020 CALLS FOR  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK DURING THE 3 MONTH PERIOD FOR  
FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEBRUARY 20TH THROUGH FEBRUARY  
26TH  
CALLS FOR A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
THE OUTLOOK ALSO CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN WINTER SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER  
BASIN IS RUNNING ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGE CONDITIONS. THE AVERAGE  
SNOWPACK FROM USDA SNOTEL SITES IN THE UPPER PART OF THE BASIN IS  
CURRENTLY AT AROUND 120 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  
 
AT JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO, THE CURRENT WATER  
SURFACE ELEVATION IS AROUND 3822.74 FEET. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT  
100,551 ACRE-FEET OF WATER. THE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION IS ABOUT 29.1  
FEET BELOW THE TOP OF THE CONSERVATION POOL. THE CONSERVATION POOL IS  
APPROXIMATELY 29 PERCENT FILLED. THERE IS ABUNDANT CAPACITY FOR  
SPRING SNOWMELT AND RAINS AT JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR.  
 
AT CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, THE RESERVOIR POOL  
ELEVATION STANDS AT 2134.1 FEET OR APPROXIMATELY 9.9 FEET BELOW THE  
TOP OF THE CONSERVATION POOL AND 31.9 FEET FROM THE TOP OF THE FLOOD  
POOL. THE RESERVOIR IS APPROXIMATELY 65 PERCENT FILLED. THERE IS  
ABUNDANT CAPACITY FOR SPRING RAINS AT CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR.  
 
AT HORSETHIEF RESERVOIR IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE CURRENT WATER  
SURFACE ELEVATION IS 2419.7 FEET WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT STORAGE  
CAPACITY OF 5230 ACRE-FEET. THE LAKE ELEVATION IS ABOUT 2.3 FEET  
BELOW CONSERVATION POOL ELEVATION AND 24.2 FEET BELOW THE LEVEL OF  
THE SPILLWAY. RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 84 PERCENT CAPACITY. THERE IS  
SUFFICIENT CAPACITY FOR SPRING RAINS AT HORSETHIEF RESERVOIR.  
 
THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW MAP INDICATES  
THAT RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS  
RUNNING AT ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST,  
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.  
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING AT BELOW TO  
MUCH BELOW NORMAL.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 8 7 5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HAYS 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
COOLIDGE 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GARDEN CITY 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DODGE CITY 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WALNUT CREEK  
NEKOMA 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BUCKNER CREEK  
BURDETT 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PAWNEE CREEK  
BURDETT 7WNW 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PAWNEE RIVER  
SANFORD 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK  
MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 8 5 6 <5 5 <5  
:CROOKED CREEK  
ENGLEWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 20 5 6 <5 <5 <5  
:CIMARRON RIVER  
FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER  
KIOWA 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.9 4.1 4.9 5.3  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.9 6.8 9.8 14.3  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 11.1 12.6 12.9  
HAYS 2SSE 5.6 5.6 5.6 8.3 13.7 18.3 26.7  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 6.5 9.9 10.3  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
COOLIDGE 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 4.4 5.7  
SYRACUSE 1S 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.5 6.6  
GARDEN CITY 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.7  
DODGE CITY 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.6 7.9  
:WALNUT CREEK  
NEKOMA 9.4 9.4 9.4 13.5 19.6 26.4 29.1  
:BUCKNER CREEK  
BURDETT 7WSW 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 7.5 9.4 12.1  
:PAWNEE CREEK  
BURDETT 7WNW 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 7.7 12.2 15.0  
:PAWNEE RIVER  
SANFORD 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.5 8.9 11.5 13.3  
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK  
MACKSVILLE 8SE 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.4 8.3 9.0  
ZENITH 10NNW 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.5 15.4 16.4 18.2  
:CROOKED CREEK  
ENGLEWOOD 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.3 6.0 7.5 8.2  
:CIMARRON RIVER  
FORGAN 8NNE 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.9  
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER  
KIOWA 2NE 0.7 0.7 1.0 3.7 6.5 8.4 11.1  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 02/15/2020 - 05/15/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5  
HAYS 2SSE 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION, THERE IS A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF  
FLOODING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS SPRING.  
 
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED  
FEBRUARY 27TH, 2020.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
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