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FGUS73 KDDC 140918
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KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-
119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-281800-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
416 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO THE DODGE CITY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)
WHICH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
- THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM THE KANSAS-COLORADO STATE LINE TO BELOW
LARNED, KANSAS
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS IN TREGO AND ELLIS COUNTIES
- THE WALNUT CREEK IN NESS AND RUSH COUNTIES
- THE PAWNEE CREEK AND BUCKNER CREEK
- THE RATTLESNAKE CREEK AND CROOKED CREEK
- THE CIMARRON RIVER AND MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 14 THROUGH MARCH 28, 2024.
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DODGE CITY SERVICE AREA
RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR
LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.
OVER THE PAST YEAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE HSA WERE GENERALLY AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST
YEAR OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF A PRATT TO DIGHTON LINE WHERE
75-100% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED AND IN TREGO COUNTY AROUND
50-75% OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION WAS RECEIVED. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
FROM SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT WE HAVE REPORTS OF 100-150% OF
AVERAGE MOISTURE WAS RECEIVED OVER THE PAST YEAR.
THE LAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN WET FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA HAS RANGED FROM 125-200% OF AVERAGE
MOISTURE. KEEP IN MIND OUR DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR IS IN THE WINTER
MONTHS SO WHILE IT HAS BEEN A WETTER WINTER THAN AVERAGE THE AMOUNTS
OVER 3 MONTHS ARE IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE.
WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS HAS ALSO LED TO HIGHER SOIL
MOISTURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HSA. MOISTURE PERCENTILES OF 70-99%
ARE ACROSS AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 30-70% FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. OUR NORTHERN AREAS CAN STILL TAKE SOME
RAIN TO SOAK UP WHILE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE HIGHER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE GROUND IF AND WHEN MORE RAIN AND SNOW COMES.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDEX FROM (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU)
THROUGH MARCH 5TH HAS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OUT OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE LOAN EXCEPTIONS ARE MODERATE DROUGHT IS STILL
OCCURRING MAINLY IN TREGO COUNTY AND NORTHEAST STAFFORD COUNTY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK
RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15,2024 AND VALID THROUGH MAY 31ST, 2024 CALLS
FOR THE AREAS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT REMAIN IN DROUGHT TO LIKELY
HAVE DROUGHT REMOVAL OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK DURING THE 3-MONTH PERIOD FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS WEST OF A
MEDICINE LODGE TO DIGHTON LINE AND 33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THIS LINE.
THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK VALID FOR MARCH 21ST-27TH, 2024 CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND
33% EACH) ALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH IS ROUGHLY AROUND 60 FOR
HIGHS AND 33 FOR LOWS AND 33-40% CHANCE OF RECEIVING ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS ROUGHLY 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS TIME
PERIOD.
EASTERN PACIFIC CURRENT OSCILLATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE TRANSITION
FROM EL NINO TO ENSO NEUTRAL BY APRIL-JUNE 2024 (79% CHANCE), WITH
INCREASING ODDS OF LA NINA DEVELOPING IN JUNE-AUGUST 2024 (55%
CHANCE). THE SOURCE IS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER’S EL
NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY
8TH 2024. LATEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OF MARCH 6TH OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THE END OF AN EL NINO AND THE START OF A LA NINA.
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN WINTER SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
BASIN IS RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE WITH THE SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT AT 94%.
AT JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO, THE CURRENT WATER
SURFACE ELEVATION IS AROUND 3812.00 FEET, WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT
55,197 ACRE-FEET OF WATER. THE RESERVOIR IS APPROXIMATELY 15.8
PERCENT FULL. AT CEDAR BLUFF RESERVOIR IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, THE
RESERVOIR POOL ELEVATION STANDS AT 2124.6 FEET WHICH EQUATES TO 72664
ACRE-FEET OF WATER. THE RESERVOIR IS APPROXIMATELY 42.1 PERCENT
FULL. AT HORSE THIEF RESERVOIR IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE CURRENT WATER
SURFACE ELEVATION IS 2414.96 FEET WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT STORAGE
CAPACITY OF 3639 ACRE-FEET. RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 58.6 PERCENT
CAPACITY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT CAPACITY FOR SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND SPRING
RAINS AT THE RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW MAP INDICATES
THAT STREAMFLOW OF THE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS ARE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL ON THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY OF THE
STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. STREAMFLOW IS
NORMAL FOR THE SALINE RIVER IN TREGO COUNTY AND THE STREAMS IN ELLIS
AND RUSH COUNTIES.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 6 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
SCHOENCHEN 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 7 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HAYS 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GARDEN CITY 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DODGE CITY 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WALNUT CREEK
NEKOMA 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 6 6 <5 5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
PRATT 9.0 11.0 13.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 12 5 7 <5 <5 <5
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 6.1 7.2
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.3 5.8 8.8 12.8
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 10.2 11.8 12.6
HAYS 2SSE 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.7 8.3 16.1 17.7
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.6 9.3 11.3
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 4.3 7.3 8.6
SYRACUSE 1S 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.8 8.1 9.5
GARDEN CITY 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.5
DODGE CITY 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.6 8.4 8.9
:WALNUT CREEK
NEKOMA 7.3 7.5 7.7 15.0 22.4 26.6 30.5
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7WSW 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.7 9.0 11.7 13.4
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 6W 2.4 2.4 2.4 7.0 12.9 15.9 16.7
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD 5.6 5.6 5.9 7.5 11.2 13.2 14.6
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.2 6.6 7.3
ZENITH 10NNW 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.7 14.7 16.0 17.4
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
PRATT 2.5 2.6 3.2 4.7 6.1 6.9 8.8
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 5.1 6.8 8.8
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.3 4.5 5.0
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE 0.2 0.2 1.6 3.8 5.6 8.0 10.6
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/16/2024 - 06/14/2024
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
HAYS 2SSE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION, THERE IS NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS SPRING. MOST FLOODING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION
EVENTS.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS YEAR.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
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