708  
FGUS73 KDDC 111625  
ESFDDC  
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-  
119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-121600-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1125 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2018  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 09/29/2018 - 12/28/2018  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HAYS 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
COOLIDGE 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GARDEN CITY 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
DODGE CITY 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WALNUT CREEK  
NEKOMA 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 10 <5 7 <5 <5 <5  
:BUCKNER CREEK  
BURDETT 7W 16.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 <5 19 <5 5 <5  
:PAWNEE CREEK  
BURDETT 7WNW 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:PAWNEE RIVER  
SANFORD 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 7 <5 5 <5 <5 <5  
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK  
MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 13 <5 8 <5 5 <5  
:CROOKED CREEK  
ENGLEWOOD 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 20 <5 10 <5 <5 <5  
:CIMARRON RIVER  
FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER  
KIOWA 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : >95 7 13 5 9 5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 09/29/2018 - 12/28/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 3.2 5.2  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.5 5.3 5.7  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.7 10.8 11.3  
HAYS 2SSE 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.7 10.5 12.4  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.1 7.8  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
COOLIDGE 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 6.4 7.9  
SYRACUSE 1S 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.5 6.0 7.9 8.7  
GARDEN CITY 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.3  
DODGE CITY 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 8.1 8.8 9.2  
:WALNUT CREEK  
NEKOMA 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 21.4 29.4 32.4  
:BUCKNER CREEK  
BURDETT 7W 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 22.5 25.1  
:PAWNEE CREEK  
BURDETT 7WNW 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 17.2 20.8  
:PAWNEE RIVER  
SANFORD 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 21.1 26.0  
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK  
MACKSVILLE 8SE 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.7 7.5 8.2  
ZENITH 10NNW 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 17.3 18.1  
:CROOKED CREEK  
ENGLEWOOD 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.8 8.1 8.8  
:CIMARRON RIVER  
FORGAN 8NNE 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.2 5.6  
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER  
KIOWA 2NE 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 12.3 26.5  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 09/29/2018 - 12/28/2018  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ARNOLD 12N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
SCHOENCHEN 2E 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6  
:BIG CREEK  
ELLIS 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5  
HAYS 2SSE 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8  
:SALINE RIVER  
WAKEENEY 5N 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE 25TH OF EACH MONTH.  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

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