574  
FGUS73 KGID 201828  
ESFGID  
NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019-  
KSC147-KSC163-051800-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
126 PM CDT TUE AUG 20 2019  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2019 - 11/22/2019  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
DEWEESE 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 18 11 5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON  
GLADE 11.0 16.0 18.0 : 6 8 <5 6 <5 <5  
:BOW CREEK  
STOCKTON 9.0 12.0 13.6 : 9 9 <5 6 <5 <5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
COZAD 7.5 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OVERTON 7.5 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
KEARNEY 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
GRAND ISLAND 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 7 <5 5 <5 <5 <5  
:WOOD RIVER  
GIBBON 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 15 6 8 5 6 <5  
ALDA 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 17 9 14 7 7 <5  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
RAVENNA 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 22 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MUD CREEK  
SWEETWATER 16.5 18.0 21.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT MICHAEL 7.5 12.0 15.0 : 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NORTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CEDAR RIVER  
FULLERTON 9.0 17.0 18.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LOUP RIVER  
GENOA 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 13 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GENOA 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 8 8 7 6 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2019 - 11/22/2019  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
DEWEESE 3.3 3.3 4.2 6.1 9.1 12.8 15.7  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON  
GLADE 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.5 8.7 12.3  
:BOW CREEK  
STOCKTON 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.2 8.3 10.5  
:PLATTE RIVER  
COZAD 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.1  
OVERTON 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.6 6.0 6.4  
KEARNEY 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.6 5.0 5.6  
GRAND ISLAND 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.0 7.0  
:WOOD RIVER  
GIBBON 4.4 4.4 4.5 6.2 11.0 15.8 17.0  
ALDA 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 9.0 11.8 12.6  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
RAVENNA 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.6 6.0  
:MUD CREEK  
SWEETWATER 9.6 9.6 10.0 12.5 14.7 16.9 17.4  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT MICHAEL 1.4 1.4 2.2 3.8 5.4 7.7 8.3  
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 0.8 0.8 1.1 2.1 3.0 4.1 4.8  
:NORTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 2.6 2.9 3.7 4.0 4.8 5.3 5.4  
:CEDAR RIVER  
FULLERTON 2.4 3.3 4.1 5.2 6.2 8.2 11.5  
:LOUP RIVER  
GENOA 5.5 5.5 6.5 8.2 9.0 10.7 11.2  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GENOA 3.7 4.0 5.8 7.1 9.3 14.3 18.3  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 08/24/2019 - 11/22/2019  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
DEWEESE 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5  
:NORTH FORK SOLOMON  
GLADE 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3  
:BOW CREEK  
STOCKTON 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2  
:PLATTE RIVER  
COZAD 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6  
OVERTON 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3  
KEARNEY 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9  
GRAND ISLAND 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0  
:WOOD RIVER  
GIBBON 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2  
ALDA 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
RAVENNA 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8  
:MUD CREEK  
SWEETWATER 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3  
:SOUTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT MICHAEL 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4  
:MIDDLE LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
:NORTH LOUP RIVER  
SAINT PAUL 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:CEDAR RIVER  
FULLERTON 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:LOUP RIVER  
GENOA 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6  
:BEAVER CREEK  
GENOA 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GID FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED SEPTEMBER 25 2019.  
 

 
 
MANGELS  
 
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