378  
FGUS73 KICT 292020  
ESFICT  
KSC001-009-015-017-021-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159-  
167-169-173-191-205-302100-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
318 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2020  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 06/27/2020 - 09/25/2020  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
GREAT BEND 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HUTCHINSON 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HAVEN 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 8 7 5 5 <5 <5  
DERBY 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 7 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MULVANE 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
OXFORD 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 12 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
ARKANSAS CITY 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 24 20 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WALNUT CREEK  
ALBERT 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 8 <5 6 <5 5 <5  
:COW CREEK  
LYONS 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5  
HUTCHINSON 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 60 9 45 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER  
ALTA MILLS 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 16 13 9 7 <5 <5  
HALSTEAD 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 13 8 <5 5 <5 <5  
SEDGWICK 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 16 12 10 <5 6 <5  
:COWSKIN CREEK  
WICHITA AT 119TH 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 12 10 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NINNESCAH SOUTH FORK  
MURDOCK 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 14 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:NINNESCAH RIVER  
PECK 17.0 21.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BELLE PLAINE 23.0 24.5 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SLATE CREEK  
WELLINGTON 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 37 25 16 5 <5 <5  
:WHITEWATER RIVER  
TOWANDA 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 25 14 11 6 <5 <5  
AUGUSTA 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER  
EL DORADO 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 7 9 7 8 5 7  
:WALNUT RIVER  
EL DORADO 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
AUGUSTA 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 9 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WINFIELD 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 20 20 14 14 6 6  
ARKANSAS CITY 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 9 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CHIKASKIA RIVER  
CORBIN 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 21 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:FALL RIVER  
FREDONIA 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 19 21 6 7 <5 <5  
:VERDIGRIS RIVER  
ALTOONA 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 13 13 8 8 <5 <5  
INDEPENDENCE 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 17 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COFFEYVILLE 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 92 15 91 <5 91 <5  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
FLORENCE 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 14 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
COTTONWOOD FALLS 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 93 26 93 17 92 <5  
PLYMOUTH 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 25 26 9 11 <5 <5  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
IOLA 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 22 25 <5 10 <5 <5  
CHANUTE 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 37 40 23 23 5 5  
ERIE 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 33 37 26 30 16 18  
PARSONS 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 31 41 25 34 <5 <5  
OSWEGO 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 33 36 25 27 7 7  
:SALT CREEK  
BARNARD 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 11 9 9 7 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
LINCOLN 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 27 24 18 9 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
LINDSBORG 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5  
MENTOR 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 8 9 <5 5 <5 <5  
:MULBERRY CREEK  
SALINA 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 26 20 20 17 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
NEW CAMBRIA 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 15 13 8 8 <5 <5  
RUSSELL 18.0 20.0 38.0 : 11 9 8 5 <5 <5  
ELLSWORTH 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 11 10 7 6 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
RUSSELL 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 6 5 5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/27/2020 - 09/25/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:ARKANSAS RIVER  
GREAT BEND 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.9 8.2 10.0  
HUTCHINSON 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.5 5.0 6.9 7.3  
HAVEN 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 7.3 9.7 11.2  
DERBY 2.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 7.6 11.1 12.9  
MULVANE 7.3 7.4 8.7 9.7 12.3 15.7 17.6  
OXFORD 9.1 9.3 10.7 11.9 14.6 17.5 19.5  
ARKANSAS CITY 4.8 4.9 6.5 7.8 10.8 13.5 15.4  
:WALNUT CREEK  
ALBERT 6.0 6.0 6.8 11.0 14.5 22.6 26.2  
:COW CREEK  
LYONS 6.3 7.1 11.6 14.6 16.8 18.0 18.5  
HUTCHINSON 3.0 4.6 8.2 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.7  
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER  
ALTA MILLS 2.2 2.7 7.2 13.0 18.2 24.9 25.8  
HALSTEAD 6.9 7.6 10.6 14.9 19.8 26.4 26.9  
SEDGWICK 5.2 6.0 8.9 11.2 17.3 25.4 26.3  
:COWSKIN CREEK  
WICHITA AT 119TH 7.3 7.3 10.4 13.6 15.0 18.5 19.3  
:NINNESCAH SOUTH FORK  
MURDOCK 4.1 4.2 4.7 5.3 6.7 8.5 9.1  
:NINNESCAH RIVER  
PECK 2.9 3.3 4.6 6.5 9.5 12.2 14.5  
BELLE PLAINE 9.9 10.4 11.5 13.3 16.3 18.3 19.5  
:SLATE CREEK  
WELLINGTON 4.3 6.3 9.7 16.2 21.6 22.3 22.8  
:WHITEWATER RIVER  
TOWANDA 2.2 2.8 5.2 10.5 22.3 25.3 26.5  
AUGUSTA 4.5 5.1 6.4 8.6 14.5 18.8 24.8  
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER  
EL DORADO 6.2 6.2 7.4 8.5 13.5 18.4 24.4  
:WALNUT RIVER  
EL DORADO 2.0 2.0 2.9 4.7 9.0 12.1 16.3  
AUGUSTA 5.6 5.7 6.6 11.0 18.0 23.0 27.0  
WINFIELD 1.6 1.9 3.5 8.0 14.9 24.9 30.2  
ARKANSAS CITY 3.6 3.6 6.1 9.4 13.8 18.0 20.1  
:CHIKASKIA RIVER  
CORBIN 2.3 2.3 4.2 6.7 9.6 11.3 12.0  
:FALL RIVER  
FREDONIA 3.2 3.3 5.1 8.2 13.2 22.7 28.6  
:VERDIGRIS RIVER  
ALTOONA 3.5 3.8 4.9 7.9 13.5 20.4 22.1  
INDEPENDENCE 2.2 3.3 6.6 15.3 21.1 38.2 40.8  
COFFEYVILLE 0.9 35.0 2.4 5.3 9.6 21.3 22.6  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
FLORENCE 3.2 3.2 4.0 5.1 15.7 24.8 25.6  
COTTONWOOD FALLS 0.9 30.0 1.9 3.4 7.0 12.5 13.5  
PLYMOUTH 3.5 4.3 7.3 18.3 32.4 33.9 34.5  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
IOLA 7.3 7.5 9.0 10.4 14.0 19.1 20.0  
CHANUTE 9.1 10.3 12.9 18.2 28.1 32.7 35.1  
ERIE 12.5 13.7 16.4 22.0 32.6 38.8 40.4  
PARSONS 8.1 8.9 11.2 15.0 23.3 27.2 29.1  
OSWEGO 6.9 7.5 9.4 11.0 20.3 24.4 25.7  
:SALT CREEK  
BARNARD 5.0 5.0 5.2 8.2 9.5 22.2 24.3  
:SALINE RIVER  
LINCOLN 11.0 11.0 12.9 17.7 32.5 37.2 38.0  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
LINDSBORG 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 17.1 19.9 24.2  
MENTOR 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 18.2 22.0  
:MULBERRY CREEK  
SALINA 4.1 4.1 4.1 7.8 24.6 26.4 26.5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
NEW CAMBRIA 14.7 14.7 14.7 20.3 24.8 29.0 31.7  
RUSSELL 4.3 4.3 6.3 9.7 12.6 18.9 22.4  
ELLSWORTH 2.1 2.1 5.8 8.3 14.0 21.0 24.9  
:SALINE RIVER  
RUSSELL 5.5 5.5 6.2 9.5 12.1 15.9 19.8  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 06/27/2020 - 09/25/2020  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:SALT CREEK  
BARNARD 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8  
:SALINE RIVER  
LINCOLN 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
LINDSBORG 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0  
MENTOR 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3  
:MULBERRY CREEK  
SALINA 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
NEW CAMBRIA 7.8 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2  
RUSSELL 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6  
ELLSWORTH 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2  
:SALINE RIVER  
RUSSELL 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/ICT FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE 25TH OF EACH MONTH.  
 

 
 
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