650  
FGUS73 KSGF 131549  
ESFSGF  
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC021-161200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
950 AM CST THU FEB 13 2020  
 
   
..SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK #1
 
 
THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS IN  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI HYDROLOGIC  
SERVICE AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES THE SPRING, OSAGE, GASCONADE,  
JAMES, JACKS FORK, ELK AND NORTH FORK WHITE BASINS.  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR AREA RIVERS CONTAIN FORECAST  
VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30  
OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS  
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS:  
 
IT HAS BEEN A WETTER THAN NORMAL LATE FALL AND WINTER ACROSS THE  
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS WITH MOST OF THE REGION RECEIVING  
BETWEEN 110% TO 150% OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SOIL MOISTURE IS  
IN THE 70TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SOUTH  
CENTRAL MISSOURI. STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES ARE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.  
 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS:  
 
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER  
INDICATES NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL  
RAINFALL.  
 
THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR MID FEBRUARY TO MID MARCH INDICATES EQUAL  
CHANCES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HSA. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE INCREASING  
CHANCES FOR BEING ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW AND  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS:  
 
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS -  
SPRING RIVER, ELK RIVER AND SHOAL CREEK:  
 
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS  
SPRING BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS. RIVER  
FLOODING IS TYPICALLY DRIVEN BY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
 
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING  
AT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH  
LATE APRIL. THESE ARE NOT EXTREME CONDITIONS FOR THIS REGION AND REFLECT  
A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  
 
LOCATION % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY  
MINOR FLOODING MODERATE FLOODING MAJOR FLOODING  
 
SPRING RIVER  
 
CARTHAGE, MO 45 18 NOT EXPECTED  
WACO, MO 45 3 NOT EXPECTED  
BAXTER SPRINGS, KS 40 19 NOT EXPECTED  
 
ELK RIVER  
 
TIFF CITY, MO 35 6 4  
 
SHOAL CREEK  
JOPLIN, MO 20 4 NOT EXPECTED  
 
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND CENTRAL MISSOURI-  
OSAGE, LITTLE OSAGE, MARMATON, SAC, BIG PINEY AND GASCONADE RIVER  
AND ROUBIDOUX CREEK.  
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SEASONAL OUTLOOKS INDICATE AN ABOVE  
NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING. MOST OF THE FOLLOWING  
POINTS EXPERIENCE FLOODING EVERY SPRING.  
 
LOCATION % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY  
MINOR FLOODING MODERATE FLOODING MAJOR FLOODING  
 
LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON, KS 62 53 5  
HORTON, MO 90 52 NOT EXPECTED  
 
MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT, KS 43 12 7  
NEVADA, MO 86 54 17  
 
OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY, MO 85 21 NOT EXPECTED  
 
SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS, MO 70 61 9  
 
GASCONADE RIVER  
HAZELGREEN, MO 27 18 5  
JEROME, MO 53 21 5  
 
BIG PINEY RIVER  
FT LEONARD WOOD, MO 75 31 NOT EXPECTED  
 
LARGER LAKES ALONG AND NEAR THE OSAGE RIVER HAVE BETWEEN 80% AND 100% OF THEIR  
FLOOD POOL STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR COLLECTION OF SPRING RAINFALL. PERCENTAGES OF  
FLOOD POOL STORAGE FOR EACH LAKE, AS OF FEBRUARY 13TH, ARE INCLUDED BELOW.  
 
STOCKTON 15% POMME DE TERRE 4%  
TRUMAN 5% LAKE OF THE OZARKS 0%  
 
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI -  
JAMES, JACKS FORK, AND NORTH FORK WHITE RIVERS.  
 
BASED ON VERY SATURATED SOILS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES,  
THERE WILL BE AN ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ALONG THE JACKS FORK AND  
NORTH FORK WHITE RIVERS. ALONG THE JAMES RIVER, SOILS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL  
SATURATION BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE JACKS FORK AND NORTH FORK WHITE RIVERS,  
LEADING TO A NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING.  
 
LOCATION % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY % PROBABILITY  
MINOR FLOODING MODERATE FLOODING MAJOR FLOODING  
 
JAMES RIVER  
GALENA 48 12 NOT EXPECTED  
 
JACKS FORK RIVER  
ALLEY SPRING 30 9 NOT EXPECTED  
 
LAKES ALONG AND NEAR THE WHITE RIVER ALONG THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS  
BORDER ARE RUNNING ABOVE THEIR POWER POOLS. PERCENTAGES OF FLOOD POOL  
STORAGE FOR EACH LAKE ARE INCLUDED BELOW.  
 
BEAVER 97% TABLE ROCK 6%  
NORFORK 19% BULL SHOALS 20%  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/SGF ...UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB  
AND EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RISK TAB FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR RELEASE ON THURSDAY  
FEBRUARY 27TH.  
 

 
 
TERRY/CRAMER  
 
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