254  
FGUS73 KSGF 260218  
ESFSGF  
MOC097-105-119-145-153-161-169-203-209-KSC011-021-301200-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
750 PM CST THU NOV 24 2022  
 
THROUGH LATE FEBRUARY, THERE IS A BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR RIVER  
FLOODING ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS IN THE NWS SPRINGFIELD HYDROLOGIC  
SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE CHANCES FOR THESE RIVERS REACHING OR  
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE IS BELOW 50 PERCENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
REMAINING OVER THE GASCONADE BASIN.  
 
DETAILS ON CHANCES FOR MINOR, MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING FOR  
SELECTED RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TABLES BELOW.  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2022 - 02/24/2023  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 21 <5 12 <5 <5  
HORTON 41.0 45.0 50.0 : <5 50 <5 11 <5 <5  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 38.0 42.0 43.0 : <5 11 <5 7 <5 5  
NEVADA 20.0 26.0 31.0 : 6 52 <5 14 <5 5  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 30.0 35.0 45.0 : <5 14 <5 6 <5 <5  
TABERVILLE 23.0 34.0 46.0 : <5 16 <5 5 <5 <5  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 16.0 19.0 28.0 : 6 32 5 19 <5 5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
HAZELGREEN 21.0 26.0 30.0 : 7 14 5 7 <5 5  
:ROUBIDOUX CREEK  
WAYNESVILLE 7.0 14.0 20.0 : 40 46 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BIG PINEY  
FORT LEONARD WOOD 8.0 15.0 23.0 : 42 55 12 26 <5 <5  
:GASCONADE RIVER  
JEROME 15.0 25.0 30.0 : 22 43 5 6 <5 <5  
:SPRING RIVER  
CARTHAGE 10.0 14.0 20.0 : <5 17 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WACO 19.0 30.0 33.0 : <5 19 <5 <5 <5 <5  
BAXTER SPRINGS 14.0 22.0 30.0 : <5 15 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPLIN 11.5 16.0 18.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:ELK RIVER  
TIFF CITY 15.0 20.0 25.0 : <5 17 <5 6 <5 <5  
:CURRENT RIVER  
POWDER MILL 8.0 25.0 40.0 : 30 48 5 7 <5 <5  
:JACKS FORK RIVER  
ALLEY SPRING 9.0 12.0 16.0 : 5 23 <5 8 <5 <5  
EMINENCE 12.0 15.0 20.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5  
:JAMES RIVER  
BOAZ 10.0 18.0 24.0 : 18 28 >5 6 <5 <5  
GALENA 15.0 25.0 31.0 : 18 28 6 6 <5 6  
:NORTH FORK WHITE  
TECUMSEH 20.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2022 - 02/24/2023  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 14.5  
HORTON 27.3 27.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 33.1 40.3  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 7.8 8.7 9.7 12.3 14.5 23.5 33.4  
NEVADA 2.6 3.6 4.2 6.9 8.5 16.5 21.6  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 6.2 7.0 9.0 12.6 18.6 26.2 27.6  
TABERVILLE 8.7 9.0 9.7 11.2 14.1 18.1 21.4  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 6.7 6.8 7.4 8.8 12.6 14.0 19.7  
:SPRING RIVER  
CARTHAGE 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 5.7 7.4 9.8  
WACO 1.4 1.9 2.5 4.9 7.9 11.3 14.4  
BAXTER SPRINGS 4.2 4.5 5.2 6.0 6.6 8.2 9.3  
:SHOAL CREEK  
JOPLIN 2.9 3.3 4.2 5.3 7.1 9.7 11.1  
:ELK RIVER  
TIFF CITY 3.5 3.8 4.4 5.5 7.5 11.3 12.3  
:CURRENT RIVER  
POWDER MILL 2.6 2.7 5.0 5.7 10.5 14.0 25.0  
:JACKS FORK RIVER  
ALLEY SPRING 3.5 3.5 3.5 5.0 6.5 8.0 8.8  
EMINENCE 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 6.0 7.5 8.4  
:JAMES RIVER  
BOAZ 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.0 6.3 10.3 15.0  
GALENA 5.0 5.0 7.0 7.5 12.0 19.0 25.5  
:NORTH FORK WHITE  
TECUMSEH 2.6 2.6 2.6 4.0 5.6 9.5 15.5  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, CHANCES FOR NOT EXCEEDING DESIGNATED STAGES ARE  
INCLUDED BELOW. THIS DATA IS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR RIVER FORECAST POINTS  
IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.  
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 11/26/2022 - 02/24/2023  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:LITTLE OSAGE RIVER  
FULTON 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6  
HORTON 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.5  
:MARMATON RIVER  
FORT SCOTT 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2  
NEVADA 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:OSAGE RIVER  
SCHELL CITY 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1  
TABERVILLE 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1  
:SAC RIVER  
CAPLINGER MILLS 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/SGF FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE DECEMBER TO EARLY JANUARY.  
 

 
 
TERRY  
 
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