425  
FGUS73 KTOP 232334  
ESFTOP  
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-  
197-201-DDHHMM-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
633 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025  
 
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL  
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES  
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.  
 
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  
 
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY  
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.  
 
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF  
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS  
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER  
THAN NORMAL.  
 
   
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
 
 
VALID PERIOD: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025  
 
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL  
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING  
: FLOOD CATEGORIES  
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)  
CATEGORICAL :  
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR  
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS  
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 35.0 38.2 43.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 32 48 30 47 <5 <5  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 37 52 7 19 <5 <5  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 63 69 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 45 49 6 8 <5 <5  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 27 43 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 6 33 <5 7 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 14 38 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 8 26 <5 6 <5 <5  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 15 28 11 24 <5 7  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 9 30 <5 <5 <5 <5  
WAMEGO 19.0 26.0 38.0 : 5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
WAMEGO 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 14 21 5 17 <5 <5  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 7 12 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 21 46 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 5 9 <5 8 <5 <5  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 11 17 8 16 <5 <5  
TOPEKA 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 7 20 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAWRENCE 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 6 19 <5 8 <5 <5  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
WAKARUSA 15.0 22.0 24.0 : 27 29 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LAWRENCE 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 18 18 13 16 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 14 21 6 11 <5 9  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 24 33 10 12 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 15.0 18.0 30.0 : 13 23 <5 8 <5 <5  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 14.0 22.0 36.0 : 11 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 35 51 11 17 <5 <5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 15 28 12 19 <5 <5  
MINNEAPOLIS 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 11 14 8 11 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 8 26 7 24 <5 <5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 24 56 16 49 <5 <5  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 31 46 22 38 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 9 31 <5 18 <5 <5  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 28 49 27 49 <5 <5  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 37 47 35 46 <5 <5  
QUENEMO 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 40 44 20 25 <5 <5  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 27 37 <5 <5 <5 <5  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
OTTAWA 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 33 42 11 13 <5 <5  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
GARNETT 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 29 28 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LANE 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 22 23 20 19 <5 <5  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 21.0 23.5 40.0 : <5 21 <5 7 <5 <5  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
EMPORIA 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 37 44 20 20 <5 <5  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
AMERICUS 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 9 9 6 <5 <5 <5  
EMPORIA 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 20 22 19 21 <5 <5  
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 39 38 34 32 <5 <5  
BURLINGTON 27.0 40.0 45.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5  
LEROY 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 17 26 17 26 <5 <5  
 
LEGEND  
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)  
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION  
FT = FEET  
 
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID  
TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 18.9 19.4 22.0 24.9 30.6 34.0 36.7  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 4.1 4.4 6.9 9.3 14.4 15.9 18.7  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 3.4 4.7 6.9 13.1 21.0 22.4 25.2  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 6.6 7.2 10.1 13.8 18.6 21.4 25.3  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 21.2 22.1 23.7 27.9 33.0 38.4 44.4  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 4.5 6.7 8.7 18.3 23.3 26.9 28.0  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 4.3 4.4 6.3 10.2 20.7 21.6 21.9  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 5.5 6.3 7.8 10.5 14.3 20.2 26.1  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 3.0 3.6 4.6 6.7 17.7 23.4 25.5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 5.5 6.8 8.3 9.5 17.1 19.2 23.2  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 2.6 3.0 3.7 5.1 10.8 17.5 20.1  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 6.1 6.9 8.1 9.4 15.9 17.5 20.6  
WAMEGO 6.9 7.6 8.7 11.1 14.3 15.6 18.7  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
WAMEGO 2.9 3.4 6.2 10.7 14.0 21.7 24.5  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 8.7 8.8 10.6 11.4 13.8 21.5 25.5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 8.8 9.4 10.4 12.6 15.0 16.5 18.8  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 7.8 9.4 11.8 13.8 19.2 22.5 25.9  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 3.9 4.3 4.9 7.9 19.7 26.4 29.9  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 9.3 10.6 11.5 15.1 18.2 20.7 25.6  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 5.7 6.4 7.7 15.3 21.5 26.1 27.3  
TOPEKA 1.7 2.1 4.2 12.2 16.5 19.6 21.1  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 6.6 7.3 8.8 11.7 14.4 16.1 18.6  
LAWRENCE 10.2 10.7 12.0 14.0 15.8 17.1 19.0  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
WAKARUSA 3.8 4.1 5.0 9.5 15.6 18.3 19.8  
LAWRENCE 5.7 5.7 8.5 16.4 19.5 28.0 29.6  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.1 6.0 11.4 13.7  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 1.0 3.9 6.1 11.6 15.7 19.0 19.7  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 6.0 7.0 8.1 8.6 12.2 15.3 17.0  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.8 8.5 14.5 16.3  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 9.3 10.6 11.0 13.2 16.9 21.3 22.1  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 3.5 3.5 4.4 8.6 18.2 26.1 30.2  
MINNEAPOLIS 2.0 2.0 2.6 5.7 13.0 28.0 31.8  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 4.2 4.2 4.6 7.2 10.6 15.4 20.5  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 3.0 4.3 7.0 16.5 23.9 29.6 30.1  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 5.3 5.3 5.3 9.4 28.3 30.5 31.2  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 4.5 7.4 10.5 14.0 22.2 26.5 29.5  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 1.5 1.5 3.2 4.8 10.6 13.7 15.4  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 7.8 10.7 12.3 15.3 28.1 30.5 34.1  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 2.4 3.7 4.7 11.8 22.8 23.7 24.3  
QUENEMO 1.8 2.6 5.1 13.8 19.9 28.4 30.1  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 0.6 1.1 1.8 5.3 10.8 14.4 15.2  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
OTTAWA 4.9 6.4 11.1 16.9 31.4 33.5 35.3  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
GARNETT 9.4 10.8 16.7 22.7 26.2 27.9 30.4  
LANE 7.5 7.8 10.2 14.8 22.6 24.8 27.4  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 0.8 1.2 3.1 5.5 10.5 15.1 19.6  
:COTTONWOOD RIVER  
EMPORIA 4.8 5.5 9.9 17.1 23.1 26.0 26.7  
:NEOSHO RIVER  
AMERICUS 5.1 5.5 8.2 13.9 19.6 25.9 27.5  
EMPORIA 10.6 10.7 11.9 14.5 17.1 23.4 24.2  
NEOSHO RAPIDS 8.5 8.5 11.4 19.8 25.0 28.0 29.4  
BURLINGTON 8.6 11.5 15.0 22.4 23.1 23.7 27.4  
LEROY 5.5 9.5 13.9 19.4 20.4 25.6 27.2  
 
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE  
VALID TIME PERIOD.  
   
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
 
 
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES  
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID PERIOD: 05/24/2025 - 08/22/2025  
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
MARYSVILLE 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.6  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
HOLLENBERG 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5  
:MILL CREEK  
WASHINGTON 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER  
BARNES 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7  
:BIG BLUE RIVER  
BLUE RAPIDS 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.9  
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER  
FRANKFORT 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.6  
:CHAPMAN CREEK  
CHAPMAN 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9  
:LYON CREEK  
JUNCTION CITY 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
JUNCTION CITY 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0  
:KANSAS RIVER  
FT RILEY 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2  
:WILDCAT CREEK  
MANHATTAN SCENIC 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3  
:KANSAS RIVER  
MANHATTAN 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.1 3.1  
WAMEGO 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9  
:VERMILLION CREEK  
WAMEGO 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
:ROCK CREEK  
LOUISVILLE 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5  
:KANSAS RIVER  
BELVUE 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8  
:CROSS CREEK  
ROSSVILLE 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9  
:MILL CREEK  
PAXICO 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7  
:KANSAS RIVER  
TOPEKA 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9  
:SOLDIER CREEK  
DELIA 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1  
:KANSAS RIVER  
LECOMPTON 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4  
LAWRENCE 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1  
:WAKARUSA RIVER  
WAKARUSA 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
LAWRENCE 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
SCANDIA 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7  
:BUFFALO CREEK  
JAMESTOWN 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CONCORDIA 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6  
:ELK CREEK  
CLYDE 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5  
:REPUBLICAN RIVER  
CLAY CENTER 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
GLASCO 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5  
MINNEAPOLIS 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:SALT CREEK  
ADA 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1  
:SOLOMON RIVER  
NILES 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7  
:SALINE RIVER  
TESCOTT 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ABILENE SAND SPRI 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5  
:MUD CREEK  
ABILENE 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
:SMOKY HILL RIVER  
ENTERPRISE 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
READING 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
QUENEMO 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1  
:SALT CREEK  
LYNDON 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER  
OTTAWA 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5  
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK  
GARNETT 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.6  
LANE 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4  
:TURKEY CREEK  
SENECA 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0  
 
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART  
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION  
SERVICE.  
 
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/TOP FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER  
INFORMATION.  
 
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JUNE 26.  
 

 
 
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