227
FNUS73 KDDC 112023
FWSDDC
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELLIS CO FIRE...KANSAS FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT THU APR 11 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 CDT ON APRIL 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (620) 225-6514, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
LATEST RAP SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A ~994-MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS REACHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, SUSTAINED IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL FARTHER AWAY, HELPING TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS REACHING THE 5-10
MPH RANGE BY SUNSET. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE
NORTHERN WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WILL TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS EASTERN MT/WY/CO, WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE, AND THESE WILL HOLD
STEADFAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
REGARDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S, AND COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S BY MID-AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN 20-25% RANGE.
SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TREND SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS
HAPPENS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL TIGHTEN,
RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. THIS ALONG WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL FOSTER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE 15-20% RANGE.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO
8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT BECOMING
EAST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 13
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AFTER 3 AM.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM
SKY (%).........38 9 3 2 4 6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 59 49 45 41 38
RH..............15 22 31 35 41 44
20 FT WIND......NW 18 NW 8 N 3 N 5 NE 5 E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.26 5
MIX HGT (FT)....8600 5500 300 BLW100 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 28 NW 20 N 7 N 7 NE 9 E 9
HAINES INDEX....5 5 6 6 6 5
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH 14 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 14
TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM
SKY (%).........4 6 4 4 2 1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............35 40 52 62 70 75
RH..............49 42 32 24 22 22
20 FT WIND......SE 5 SE 7 SE 10 SE 14 S 15 S 15
20 FT WIND GUST. 12 18 21 21
MIX HGT (FT)....200 300 1000 3400 5500 6300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 SE 14 SE 20 S 20 S 17 S 14
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM
SKY (%).........2 4 3 5 9 17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 68 58 55 53 51
RH..............24 34 51 59 66 71
20 FT WIND......S 14 SE 10 SE 13 SE 13 S 13 S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.20 12 14 16 14
MIX HGT (FT)....5500 3100 300 BLW100 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 21 SE 24 SE 25 S 24 S 22
HAINES INDEX....4 4 5 6 6 6
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 31 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 23
TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM
SKY (%).........46 44 53 35 20 8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............51 55 66 76 82 86
RH..............66 53 36 25 21 18
20 FT WIND......S 14 S 16 SW 18 SW 20 SW 21 SW 21
20 FT WIND GUST.15 22 25 28 29 29
MIX HGT (FT)....300 200 300 900 4400 8500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 31 SW 36 SW 28 SW 23 SW 24
HAINES INDEX....6 6 6 6 6 6
FORECASTER...SPRINGER
REQUESTED BY...MADISON REED FIRB(T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410402.0/DDC
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MWREED@KSU.EDU
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