547  
FNUS73 KEAX 130510  
FWSEAX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NW UNIT PAHO CA...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1210 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON MAY 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-438-0596, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING,  
AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO  
IS FOR ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE SITE BY MIDDAY. WINDS  
WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, LIGHT, REMAINING SO THROUGH THE  
DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN RAINFALL, ONLY  
DIPPING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.  
CWR.................6 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.  
RH..................84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND  
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20 TO 24 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 13  
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........61 69 70 71 73 65 57 50 46 43 40 41  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............67 67 68 69 71 73 75 77 77 78 79 78  
RH..............84 81 81 81 76 71 66 62 62 60 56 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N NW NW W W W W W NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N N N NE E S SW S E NE N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 20 13 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................12 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 58.  
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........43 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 39 39 40 38  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............78 77 74 71 69 67 66 65 63 62 61 61  
RH..............58 60 64 68 70 75 75 75 81 81 81 78  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W NW N N N N NW N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 M  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CWR.................5 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.  
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY  
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 3 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........MISSING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........35 33 24 15 6 6 5 5 7 8 10 14  
WEATHER COV.....SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............60 60 64 68 72 75 78 80 81 82 82 82  
RH..............81 78 73 68 61 55 47 42 39 38 38 40  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N E E E NE N N NW W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 3.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N W NW N N N NE NE E SE S SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5  
HAINES INDEX....M M M M M M M M M M M M  
 

 
FORECASTER...KURTZ  
REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN MCCULLEY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2211795.0/EAX  
.DELDT 05/13/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL JONATHAN.MCCULLEY@MDC.MO.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page