967
FNUS73 KEAX 181339
FWSEAX
SPOT FORECAST FOR PAHO NE BURN...MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
839 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2023
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-438-0596, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO DRY
WEATHER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THEN 15 MPH. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA
AFTER 3AM AND LINGER INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
CWR.................2 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........41 41 37 38 36 46 52 54 55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............67 71 75 77 79 79 80 81 80
RH..............70 61 54 48 44 44 41 39 41
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.7 5.0 6.8 7.7 7.1 7.3 6.8 6.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 12 12 12 13 12 12
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................7 PERCENT INCREASING TO 35 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 8 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8
TO 9 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........53 55 57 59 60 64 68 70 71 74 74 73
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............80 79 76 72 70 69 67 66 65 64 63 62
RH..............42 45 50 55 61 63 70 75 81 84 87 87
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W NW NW N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 6 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 13 15 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W NW NW N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 9 10 9 8 10 10 8 9 8 9
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................35 PERCENT DECREASING TO 6 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........72 71 69 68 65 58 51 44 41 38 36 28
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............40 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 60 60 61 63 65 66 68 69 69 70 69
RH..............87 90 84 75 65 60 54 47 44 40 39 39
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 12 14 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.18 21 22 22 22 20 18 17 18 18 18 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 16 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
FORECASTER...WFO EAX
REQUESTED BY...JONATHAN MCCULLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2313334.0/EAX
.DELDT 05/18/23
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JONATHAN.MCCULLEY@MDC.MO.GOV
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