625  
FNUS73 KSGF 211555  
FWSSGF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FLOOD DEBRIS BURN PILE...MISSOURI STATE PARKS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1055 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MAY 21.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 1-800-762-4363, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........61 AT IGNITION...MAX 73.  
RH..................93 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 57 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1200-3100  
FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 2700 FT AGL LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...1200 METERS AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 366-945  
METERS AGL INCREASING TO 1036-1524 METERS AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 823 METERS  
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST AROUND 4 METERS/SECOND.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /9600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR  
/14200 KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO FAIR TO GOOD  
(21700-40000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 2.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........85 84 68 56 48 42 44 48 60 61  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............61 62 64 65 67 69 70 71 71 72  
RH..............93 90 78 75 70 66 63 61 61 57  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 7 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9  
EYE LVL WND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 5 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.8 1.6 3.1 4.3 5.0 4.9 4.3 3.4 2.7  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9  
TRANS WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/100010 14 14 27 36 40 37 30 24 22  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60.  
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 4 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...30-610 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 METERS/SECOND.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (13700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (500  
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........64 63 64 59 49 55 66 69 70 76 85 84  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 40 50  
TEMP............71 71 70 67 66 65 63 62 62 62 61 61  
RH..............61 61 63 70 73 75 81 87 84 87 90 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100018 14 8 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78.  
RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...30-579 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 4 TO 8 METERS/SECOND INCREASING TO 9 TO  
11 METERS/SECOND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO FAIR (18600  
KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING TO GOOD (31100  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
FAIR (24300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........86 92 86 89 80 87 89 91 78 71 67 60  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 60 60 60 50 50 40 40 50 50 50  
TEMP............61 62 63 65 67 69 71 72 73 74 75 76  
RH..............90 90 87 84 84 78 76 76 73 69 66 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 13 15 15 15 14 15 15 15 15 16 15  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST.8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.4  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 10 13 15 17 16 15 15 17 21 24 21  
TRANS WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 9  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10001 2 9 19 28 28 24 22 25 31 39 24  
 

 
FORECASTER...ROTHSTEIN  
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA CHAMBERS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2006994.0/SGF  
.DELDT 05/21/20  
.EMAIL PATRICIA.CHAMBERS@DNR.MO.GOV  
 
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