375  
FNUS73 KTOP 150402  
FWSTOP  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH BURNS...US FISH AND WILDLIFE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1102 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON APRIL 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (800) 432-3929, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY GRADUAL WIND SHIFTS TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE MID  
MORNING HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE BURN START TIME ACROSS THE AREA WILL  
BE LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER SUNRISE BEGIN  
TO GRADUALLY VEER FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS THEN STAY STEADY FROM  
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO  
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME NOR EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR IGNITION WILL BE  
AROUND 80% AND THEN FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY MID AFTERNOON  
DROP TO AROUND 35% ACROSS THE BURN AREA. SMOKE DISPERSAL RATES ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4200 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2100-15600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........18 17 23 29 36 47 58 68 71 73 76 80  
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10  
TEMP............35 35 38 43 48 51 54 56 58 58 59 58  
RH..............82 82 73 62 54 48 45 42 39 39 37 39  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 10 8 10 10 10 8 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.4  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 4 7 15 14 13 15 16 14 13 10  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE  
IN THE EVENING BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3800 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........85 90 89 91 91 91  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50 70 70  
TEMP............58 55 49 47 46 44  
RH..............40 47 68 74 79 86  
20 FT WIND......NE 4 NE 4 NE 5 NE 4 E 4 E 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 6 7 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 1500 800 800 900 1100  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 5 4 5 8 11  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN  
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2600 FT AGL.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (13000-33300 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........91 91 90 90  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 50  
TEMP............43 44 46 48  
RH..............86 93 79 68  
20 FT WIND......E 6G10 NE 6G12 NE 8G14 NE 9G16  
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1800 2100 2500  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
SDSPL KT-FT/100013 24 26 32  
 

 
FORECASTER...DRAKE  
REQUESTED BY...TIM MENARD  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2109128.0/TOP  
.DELDT 04/14/21  
.EMAIL TIM_MENARD@FWS.GOV  
 
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