129  
FNUS73 KTOP 151309  
FWSTOP  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUBLESOME...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
809 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP INTO  
THE MID TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE  
AROUND 7-8 PM, FALLING BELOW 10 MPH BY 7-8 PM WITH A SLOW SHIFT OF WINDS TOWARDS  
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT RH VALUES TO INCREASE  
ABOVE 40 PERCENT BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING.  
 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AS RH VALUES DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID  
20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.  
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS WEST AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100 FT  
AGL.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /27900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.  
MAX...EXCELLENT /120000 KNOT-FT/.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR PC MC MC MC MC PC MCR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............67 70 74 76 79 80 81 82 82  
RH..............54 49 41 37 32 31 28 27 26  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 15 13 13 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 23 23 23 22 23 22 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 5.0  
SDSPL KT-FT/100028 36 54 64 70 87 105 120 74  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.  
RH..................MAX 67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 19 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (6500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............81 76 67 63 61 59  
RH..............28 37 49 54 56 62  
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 7 7 8 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.19 14 14 15 16 16  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 800 500 500 500 500  
SDSPL KT-FT/100036 8 7 7 7 7  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85.  
RH..................MIN 24 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22  
MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 18 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (105500 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (88700  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............57 70 83 85  
RH..............69 53 31 24  
20 FT WIND DIR..S W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 12 12 17  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 21 21 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1600 4200 6400  
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 28 80 116  
 

 
FORECASTER...GRIESEMER  
REQUESTED BY...DAVID SPENCER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2514063.0/TOP  
.DELDT 05/15/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL DAVID_SPENCER@FWS.GOV  
 
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