277
FNUS73 KTOP 180939 CCA
FWSTOP
SPOT FORECAST FOR HOWE PROPERTY RX 2.0...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
439 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2023
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CLOUD COVER INCREASES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS MORNING
START AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE SSW, AND THEY SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND
MAINLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, THOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SPEED ARE FORECAST. MINIMUM RH FOR
TODAY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THE GREATER CHANCES ARE FOCUSED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH TO 10-20 MPH FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 81.
RH..................84 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /3800 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD
/35500 KNOT-FT/.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC PC PC PC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........ SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20
TEMP............60 65 71 75 77 79 80 81 81 81
RH..............84 75 63 55 48 44 41 39 39 39
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 9 9 8 7 6 7 8 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.2 2.0 3.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.1 6.2 5.4
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 10 20 24 31 28 33 36 31 33
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.
RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5
TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6
MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (28700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 30 50 50
TEMP............80 75 68 64 63 62
RH..............42 52 68 81 87 93
20 FT WIND DIR..S W NW N NW N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 4 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 9 7 5 8
MIX HGT (FT)....4100 400 400 500 400 500
HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 3 3 3
SDSPL KT-FT/100029 4 4 4 2 4
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 72.
RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (78500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 10 10 0
TEMP............61 59 66 72
RH..............97 83 54 39
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.12 20 20 19
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1500 2900 4300
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 3
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 28 59 73
FORECASTER...PICHA
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS CARLSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2312814.2/TOP
.DELDT 05/18/23
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DCARLSON@KSU.EDU
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