375
FNUS73 KTOP 150402
FWSTOP
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSH BURNS...US FISH AND WILDLIFE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1102 PM CDT WED APR 14 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (800) 432-3929, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ONLY GRADUAL WIND SHIFTS TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. WINDS NEAR THE BURN START TIME ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER SUNRISE BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY VEER FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS THEN STAY STEADY FROM
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 10 MPH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME NOR EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR IGNITION WILL BE
AROUND 80% AND THEN FALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND BY MID AFTERNOON
DROP TO AROUND 35% ACROSS THE BURN AREA. SMOKE DISPERSAL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4200 FT AGL
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2100-15600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18 17 23 29 36 47 58 68 71 73 76 80
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
TEMP............35 35 38 43 48 51 54 56 58 58 59 58
RH..............82 82 73 62 54 48 45 42 39 39 37 39
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 10 8 10 10 10 8 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 3.4
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDSPL KT-FT/10002 2 4 7 15 14 13 15 16 14 13 10
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE
IN THE EVENING BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3800 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........85 90 89 91 91 91
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 50 50 70 70
TEMP............58 55 49 47 46 44
RH..............40 47 68 74 79 86
20 FT WIND......NE 4 NE 4 NE 5 NE 4 E 4 E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 7 6 7 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2700 1500 800 800 900 1100
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 5 4 5 8 11
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2600 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (13000-33300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........91 91 90 90
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 50
TEMP............43 44 46 48
RH..............86 93 79 68
20 FT WIND......E 6G10 NE 6G12 NE 8G14 NE 9G16
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1800 2100 2500
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2
SDSPL KT-FT/100013 24 26 32
FORECASTER...DRAKE
REQUESTED BY...TIM MENARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2109128.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/14/21
.EMAIL TIM_MENARD@FWS.GOV
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