129
FNUS73 KTOP 151309
FWSTOP
SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUBLESOME...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
809 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AROUND 7-8 PM, FALLING BELOW 10 MPH BY 7-8 PM WITH A SLOW SHIFT OF WINDS TOWARDS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT RH VALUES TO INCREASE
ABOVE 40 PERCENT BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AS RH VALUES DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID
20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.
RH..................54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS WEST AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
WEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 7100 FT
AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR /27900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.
MAX...EXCELLENT /120000 KNOT-FT/.
TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR PC MC MC MC MC PC MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............67 70 74 76 79 80 81 82 82
RH..............54 49 41 37 32 31 28 27 26
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 16 16 16 15 13 13 11
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 23 23 23 22 23 22 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 5.0
SDSPL KT-FT/100028 36 54 64 70 87 105 120 74
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 19 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 7 TO 8 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (6500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............81 76 67 63 61 59
RH..............28 37 49 54 56 62
20 FT WIND DIR..W SW S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..10 7 7 8 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.19 14 14 15 16 16
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 800 500 500 500 500
SDSPL KT-FT/100036 8 7 7 7 7
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 85.
RH..................MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22
MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12 TO 18 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (105500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (88700
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 70 83 85
RH..............69 53 31 24
20 FT WIND DIR..S W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..9 12 12 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15 21 21 23
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1600 4200 6400
SDSPL KT-FT/10007 28 80 116
FORECASTER...GRIESEMER
REQUESTED BY...DAVID SPENCER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514063.0/TOP
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DAVID_SPENCER@FWS.GOV
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