056
FNUS73 KTOP 220908
FWSTOP
SPOT FORECAST FOR QUAIL ROAD FIRE...MARSHALL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 CDT ON MARCH 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...
DISCUSSION
AS OF 4AM, THE COLD FRONT WAS ON APPROACH TO REACH THE QUAIL ROAD
FIRE AREA NEAR 5AM. GUSTS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP INTO THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE, LIKELY WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS. WINDS STAY
PERSISTENTLY HIGH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT DIMINISH AROUND THE 7 TO
9PM WINDOW. RH VALUES FALL TO THE UPPER 20S LATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND DRY FUELS EXACERBATING ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 29 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 26 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 41 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (94400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 59 55 55 56 57 59 60 61 62 61 61
RH..............48 53 59 57 51 45 39 36 33 31 31 28
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..12 16 20 23 26 26 25 25 24 23 22 21
20 FT WIND GUST.19 29 37 40 41 40 39 37 33 32 32 29
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.5
SDSPL KT-FT/10006 9 47 65 88 87 89 94 93 87 83 90
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THEN
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 11 TO 19 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (76300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC PC MCR PC PC PC PC PC MC MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 58 54 51 49 46 45 43 42 40 38 36
RH..............27 29 34 37 39 43 45 49 53 59 64 69
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..19 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 4
20 FT WIND GUST.25 23 21 21 19 18 16 14 13 11 11 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.2 3.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4
SDSPL KT-FT/100076 70 13 14 13 12 8 8 6 5 4 3
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 56.
RH..................MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 8
TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (32800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............36 35 34 37 41 45 48 51 53 54 55 55
RH..............67 72 72 64 55 45 37 32 28 26 25 25
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 2 5 11 19 23 25 25 28 31 32 33
FORECASTER...CRAVEN
REQUESTED BY...SARA NAAF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2607041.1/TOP
.DELDT 03/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MSCO911EP@BLUEVALLEY.NET,SNAAF@MSCOKS.ORG
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