249
FXUS63 KDDC 012140
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING RAIN WILL END RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
CLEARING SKY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- SOME OF THE MOST BEAUTIFUL DAYS OF THE YEAR EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.
- COOLEST MORNING OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EAST
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO A LOW IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDS
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/CAMS, ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN END WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
SREF INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT, GIVING
WAY TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AS ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM
PROLONGED RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY LENDS TO A HEIGHTENED
FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING HIGH QPF SIGNALS AS WELL AS SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PW VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES. A MUCH
DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE
LOWER/MID-LEVELS DOMINATES THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES BELOW 10C ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST HREF, THERE IS A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 50F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 55F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SO, LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 50S(F) SOUTHEAST. FOR A CHANGE, UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST REINFORCES A COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A
NORTHEASTLY UPSLOPE FLOW, HOLDING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND
10-12C. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD 90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60F, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE
60S(F) WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THERE IS A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 65F.
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS IN EASTERN
COLORADO, RETURNING SOUTHERLIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL TAP
INTO SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO OUR SOUTH, HELPING PUSH H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 13-15C. UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE, EXPECT MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 70S(F) FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM SW KS, AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING
NEAR 30 KTS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z FRI.
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z FRI, WITH VFR AND
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page