441
FXUS63 KDDC 112215
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (15% OR LESS) ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
(PRIMARILY BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES). MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY
STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95.
- AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE
WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SEVERE
WEAK UPPER WAVES WERE PRESENT BASED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
ANY LATE DAY OR EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS ONE OF THE SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES. LATEST MODELS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY (15% OR LESS) OF STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING
BARBER AND PORTIONS OF PRATT COUNTY. IF ANY ISOLATED STORM DOES
DEVELOP THE MAIN HAZARD APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ENDING MOST/IF
NOT ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL
BE EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER (PRIMARILY
MORTON COUNTY). EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT ANY WARMUP
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS BETWEEN
00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY ALONG WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE. SUNDAYS HIGH SHOULD
BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (SATURDAY),
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN A FEW PLACES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS PATTERN CONCENTRATES THE BEST
WARMUP, EXTREME HIGH TEMPERATURES, OVER DAKOTAS IT WILL KEEP A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL ON THE
COOL SIDE AND MOST MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY EXPECT ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THIS ONGOING TREND FROM THE MODELS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES, SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL BE LOW/NIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WHILE A WARMING TREND BEGINS LATE WEEK/EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AND
STARTS TO SHIFT/REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AROUND 5-10
KNOTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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