162
FXUS63 KDDC 202249
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
449 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
..UPDATED AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
A QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES TONIGHT, AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE PERIOD, A
COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
CAPPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS PREVAILING CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS(F) BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOWER 20S(F) MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS
WITH LESS SNOWPACK. DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LATE
WINTER SUN ANGLE INCREASING INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MELT
A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOMEWHAT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 40S(S) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOWER/MID 50S(F) MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH
LESS SNOW COVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT, STAGING A STRONG AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE HELP
OF MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECT OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING LIKELY
TEMPERATURES AND THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRIMARILY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER MIX GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING WEST CENTRAL KANSAS,
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. A SWITCHOVER TO A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MORE FINITE DETAILS OF THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM SHOULD COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES MAY POSE MORE OF A CHALLENGE SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND, NOT TO MENTION INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF RAIN ABOUT. SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO SW KS, WITH VFR/SKC
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SW WINDS OF 8-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER 15Z FRI, EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING
27-30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 13 47 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 14 46 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 18 53 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 15 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 16 48 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
P28 17 47 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page