779
FXUS63 KDDC 211010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL T-STORM EPISODES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE ONGOING T-STORM CLUSTER IS PUSHING A SURFACE BOUNDARY
(EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT) INTO OKLAHOMA. COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT (DODGE CITY
NORTH TO HAYS AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS), WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID TO HIGH LEVEL JET WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PROGRESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. IT
IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS STORM CLUSTER WILL GET
AS PLACES LIKE SCOTT CITY, SYRACUSE AND DIGHTON HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR MONDAY AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT LINGERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
HIGH PLAINS, T-STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP ON THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING,
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE CONTINUED STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR
LATE JUNE.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS AIR MASS RECOVERY OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR T-STORMS ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. T-STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO KANSAS.
BY FRIDAY THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS IS FORECAST, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. ALSO,
VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE WARM UP AND RECENT
RAINS WILL LEAD TO ABUNDANT EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION. GIVEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH, HEAT INDICES COULD
REACH WELL ABOVE 100 IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE 70-75F DEWPOINTS
MAY RESIDE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY AS SOME ENSEMBLE SUITES
PROGRESS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE OTHERS BUILD A
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
IN SUMMARY, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES
OF A FEW EPISODES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS HIGH
CHANCES (70-90%) FOR TOTAL RAINS OVER 1" ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS,
WITH MODERATE CHANCES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MID-MORNING.
MEANWHILE, PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS PREVAILING/DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY LIFT/SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
10 TO 20KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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