668
FXUS63 KDDC 032000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS. SOME RECORD HIGHS, AND RECORD
WARM LOWS, ARE EXPECTED.
- THE LONG DRY STRETCH WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AROUND FRIDAY, PROVIDING MUCH
COLDER AIR, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT JANUARY DAY WAS IN PROGRESS AT
MIDDAY, WITH STRATUS EAST OF SW KS, AND SCATTERED CIRRUS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SURPASS MUCH OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S. FOR SOME CLIMATOLOGY PERSPECTIVE, THIS IS THE
COLDEST TIME OF YEAR ON AVERAGE. THE NORMAL HIGH AT DDC FOR
JANUARY 3 IS 44, AND IT BEGINS CLIMBING TO 45 ON JANUARY 4.
INCREASING CIRRUS AND SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARTIALLY MIXED THROUGH SUNRISE, ALLOWING
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS MIXING,
AND THICK CIRRUS SLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD TONIGHT AND NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS.
THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE AT DDC FOR JANUARY 4 IS 38 (1916,
1946), AND IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO COOL BELOW THAT NUMBER.
12Z MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S THROUGH SUNRISE, REMARKABLE FOR EARLY JANUARY AND
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS SHOW FURTHER WARMING ON SUNDAY, WITH A NET INCREASE OF
ABOUT +5C AT 850 MB. ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL
VEER SWLY THROUGH THE DAY, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MIDDAY,
THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ADDED SWLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND THE EXPECTATION OF THINNING CIRRUS, SUPPORTS
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE SEVERAL DEGREES AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 70S. THE FORECAST HIGH OF 71
AT DDC IS NEAR THE RECORD HIGH OF 73/1916,1956.
WEAK LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER SW KS THROUGH MONDAY, DELIVERING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT JANUARY DAY.
MODELS SHOW NO COOLING OVER SUNDAY, SO AGAIN NBM TEMPERATURES
ARE WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE, WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR 70 ONCE
AGAIN AT 3 PM. A VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
ABOUT TUESDAY MORNING, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MODELLED TO BE
MINIMAL, WITH ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING. STILL EXPECTING
LOWER TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES TO BE ON
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY, WITH A CUTOFF CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH OF THESE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY, AND MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SWLY
IN RESPONSE. A GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE JANUARY NORMALS,
AS SHOWN BY NBM GUIDANCE. SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONE REMAINING
SOUTH, AND SNOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH REMAINING WEST.
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOME, AND REACHING SW KS ABOUT
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FRIDAY, AND
NBM'S TEMPERATURE DROP...ALL THE WAY DOWN TO "NORMAL"...APPEARS
CORRECT AND MATCHES 12Z MEX GUIDANCE. FRIDAY WILL FEEL QUITE
UNPLEASANT, IN THE LOWER 40S, AND WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN
NBM GUIDANCE.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY,
SIGNIFICANT/MEANINGFUL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OPEN
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS, SUCH AS THE ONE EXPECTED FRIDAY, STRUGGLE
TO PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW IN SW KS DURING THE WINTER. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED, AND RESIDENCY TIME OF DYNAMICS WILL BE SHORT. NBM
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW (< 25%),
FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES, APPEARS ON TARGET FOR NOW.
EXPECTATIONS SHOULD BE KEPT LOW FOR MOISTURE IN SW KS, AS THE
DRY SLOT LOOKS TO PREVAIL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, TYPICAL JANUARY
COLD RETURNS, WITH SUNRISE SATURDAY TEMPERATURES OF 15-25
DEGREES. ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AGAIN ANY SNOW WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z SUN, IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET, AND INCLUDED LLWS IN ALL TAFS 06-12Z SUN. AFTER 12Z SUN,
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, WITH GUSTS OF 23-27 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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