923
FXUS63 KDDC 251600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTH WINDS TUESDAY GUSTING 40-45 MPH.
- WIDESPREAD HARD KILLING FREEZE IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- DRY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCELLENT FOR
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL.
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY DRAMATICALLY
COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
MIDNIGHT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OUTLINED MONDAY'S PERSISTENT
STRATUS, ADVANCING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
EASTERN KANSAS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS
CLEARED THE SKY COMPLETELY, BUT A RESIDUAL SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS RESULTED IN PATCHY, SPORADIC RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISBILITY HAS VARIED WILDLY AT PLACES LIKE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE GRIDS. EVENTUALLY, AN INCREASING W/NWLY DOWNSLOPE
BREEZE WILL ELIMINATE ANY FOG BY SUNRISE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT RACING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA AT MIDNIGHT,
WILL RACE THROUGH SW KS AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AFTER 9 AM, WITH
NORTH WINDS AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. 850 MB WIND FIELDS OF 40-45 MPH
WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO REACH THAT CALIBER BY MIDDAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL PROVIDE STRONG DRY ADVECTION AT THE GROUND, AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AT 850 MB, BUT SOME NWLY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY AND FULL
SUNSHINE WILL COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION TO AN EXTENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS
IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT THE NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 1032 MB WILL BUILD SOUTH
DIRECTLY OVER SW KS THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING THE
HARDEST FREEZE SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR MANY. ALL ZONES WILL BE
WELL BELOW FREEZING, WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUIET, TYPICAL LATE
NOVEMBER DAY WITH GENTLE RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. DRY QUIET NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN GREAT TRAVEL WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
QUIET DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY,
AS MIDLEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO ZONAL. MORNINGS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD AND AFTERNOONS WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE MESSAGE REMAINS CLEAR: ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BOTH SUNRISE AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL. CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO SHOW >80% PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS EXPECTED, NBM CONTINUES TO TREND
COLDER, ESPECIALLY NOW WITH 00Z GFS/MEX GUIDANCE MUCH, MUCH
COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTS AN
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 23 AT DDC MONDAY, AND NBM HAS
FALLEN TO THE 27-32 RANGE. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE
HOMES AND AUTOS FOR THIS INCOMING ARCTIC AIR, AND AGRICULTURE
PRODUCERS WILL WANT TO PREPARE THEIR LIVESTOCK. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE NBM FORECASTS WIND CHILL INDICES NEAR 0 MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A STRONG PROBABILITY THAT THIS IS NOT COLD
ENOUGH. MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE NBM
ARE IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE, WITH AGAIN WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO.
WINTER IS COMING.
NORTH WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE FAR STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE;
EXPECT THESE VALUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME. 00Z ECMWF/EPS
GUIDANCE APPEARS PRETTY STABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS,
SHOWING AN OPEN PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH SW KS AROUND
EARLY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THE INITIAL SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH 850 MB WINDS
NEAR 50 KTS, GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE PROBABLE. NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE TOO WARM, WITH A NON DIURNAL CRASH
DOWNWARD LIKELY DURING THE DAY. ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES,
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IT WILL REMAIN FOR 2-3 DAYS, THROUGH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIR, BUT DETAILS
REGARDING SNOW AND POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS ARE LIMITED, TO BE
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW APPEARS MOST
PROBABLE ON SATURDAY, BUT MODELS ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH THIS
POTENTIAL. MODELS DO AGREE MOST RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF SW KS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY COLD SEASON
CLIMATOLOGY. THE TREND TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE, OPEN TROUGH ON
ECMWF/EPS GUIDANCE ARGUES AGAINST A MAJOR WINTER STORM, BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW SEEMS PROBABLE AT SOME POINT OVER THE COMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. NW WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT
WILL SUBSIDE 5-15 KT BY DUSK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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