109
FXUS63 KDDC 172219
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
17Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH HAS LED TO THE CLEAR SKIES. AT
THE SURFACE THE COLD AIR MASS WHICH LED TO MANY AREAS STARTING
BELOW FREEZING HAS MODIFIED A BIT WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DIURNAL HEATING. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE FRONT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WINDS BREEZY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN GOING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK FEATURES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE SUN THAN
CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AS THE FRONT RANGE LOW
WILL DEEPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. I OPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN NBM GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN THE LOWER 60S BECAUSE OF THE
WARMER WINDS AND SUNSHINE ALONG WITH GFS AND NAM HINTING AT UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND THE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION TO NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF HOWEVER I OPTED
TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10% GIVEN THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD STILL BE LIMITED.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
AS 850 TEMPS WARM INTO THE 17-18(C) RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NBM
TRENDS ALONG WITH LONG TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE SHOWING UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER STOUT TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH THE COMBINATION
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
BRINGING IN GULF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE THIS COULD LEAD TO SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THIS SETUP IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THE POPS ARE IN THE 20-
30% RANGE BUT THIS DOES LOOK LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN FOR
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TOMORROW MORNING AS A LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE IN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15-18Z ON
SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH WIND OF
10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE FORECAST WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER A REGIME OF HIGH PRESSURE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...KBJ
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