640
FXUS63 KDDC 180648
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
148 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TODAY WILL TURN MORE HUMID BY
FRIDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE T-STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY.
- THERE ARE VARYING CHANCES FOR T-STORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS PREDICTED FOR TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS, IT WON'T TAKE LONG FOR SURFACE
TROUGHING TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ANY STORMS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OF KANSAS
DURING THE LATE EVENING SINCE A FOCUS FOR T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY
BE ABSENT OVER KANSAS. THESE WILL ARRIVE IN A WEAKENED STATE
AND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT BY THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET AND A DEPARTING JET,
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS ANY T-STORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED; BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONG INSTABILITY, THESE WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OUTFLOW FROM ORGANIZED T-STORMS
TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH AN EFFECTIVE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE UPSLOPE ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH T-STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO A COOLER,
ALBEIT MOIST AIR MASS, STORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT IN WEAKENED STATE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY MONDAY, WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MID TO HIGH
LEVEL FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS GIVEN THE FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AT REASONABLY LOW LATITUDES (WHICH FORCES LEE TROUGHING
FARTHER SOUTH). T-STORM CHANCES MONDAY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S EFFECTIVE FRONT. ANY
STORMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO MOVE INTO KANSAS IN THE EVENING FROM
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS; AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH BY
TUESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH MODERATE
MID TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS, SEVERE T-STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE,
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
T-STORMS.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PER
ENSEMBLE MEANS IS JUST NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, THERE ARE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS. TAKEN AS A WHOLE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-95%)
OF .5" OF RAIN OR GREATER, WITH THE VERY HIGHEST CHANCES IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. AND THERE ARE MODERATE CHANCES 40-70% OF 1" OR
MORE OF RAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
A GIVEN DAY, THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES AT A GIVEN LOCATION OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN DEPICTED ABOVE IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR MID TO LATE JUNE.
ALTHOUGH WE ARE PAST THE PEAK OF TORNADO SEASON, MESOSCALE
EVENTS CAN LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER (INCLUDING
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES). BUT THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TYPICALLY THE SEVERE WEATHER
SEASON SLOWS SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY, ALTHOUGH
WE CAN STILL GET ROBUST HAIL AND WIND EVENTS FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE SUMMER, AND EVEN A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN VERY RARE
CIRCUMSTANCES. AND RAINFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR TENDS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AND LOCALIZED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS, WITH INTENSE
RAINS IN SOME SPOTS AND SUNSHINE IN OTHERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 13-20 KTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
15-18Z, WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ONLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD
AOA080 IS EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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