773
FXUS63 KDDC 061023
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A
SHOT OF COLD AIR TO POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF HERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, 500MB HEIGHTS WILL STAY HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD. ANY COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO MIXING OUT IN THE VERTICAL GIVEN EXPECTED
SUNSHINE. AND THIS IS NOT A REGIME WHERE ONE WOULD EXPECT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER. ANY COOLING
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND HAYS AND PRATT
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY; BUT THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE 60S. ANY COOLER AIR WILL GET SWEPT AWAY
SUNDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORIES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND ROCKIES RESUME. THUS, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KANSAS AND THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST USA TUESDAY AND THEN EDGE EASTWARD. THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SHUNTS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE A COLD
AIR SOURCE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD FOSTER LIFT.
HOWEVER, IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ABOUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND TYPES, IF ANY AT ALL. IF THE STORM TRACK IS FAR TO THE
SOUTH LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR, THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WOULD REMAIN
DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. SUBSIDING WINDS TURNING MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ARE FORECAST BY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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