215
FXUS63 KDDC 120430
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DESPITE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
- UPPER RIDGE BECOMES FIXED IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK, KEEPING SOUTHWEST KS DRY BUT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
- LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK BLEAK FOR ANY HOPE OF
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A STRONG 598-DM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHEAST 500-MB FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE EAST COAST, YIELDING A NEBULOUS PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAYTIME SUNDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PROMOTING EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER OUR
AREA. DESPITE NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET
AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW MONDAY MORNING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES REMAIN
ADAMANT THAT LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ATOP THE CONUS, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. LONG TERM ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT
RETROGRADING OF THE RIDGE TO NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS POSSIBLE
AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THIS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONING WILL NOT ENGENDER A
POWERFUL HEAT WAVE FOR OUR AREA, BUT INSTEAD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD BY MID-SUMMER
STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY. THE BAD
NEWS THOUGH IS STRONG DNVA WILL SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SOUTHWEST KS
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AT A MINIMUM,
AND LIKELY LONGER. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY EXACERBATE THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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