219
FXUS63 KDDC 302329
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON MONDAY
- TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH TO AS MUCH
AS 3 INCHES
- WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING WORK/SCHOOL COMMUTE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
20Z RAP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A DIGGING
UPPER WAVE IS NEARING SALT LAKE CITY. AT THE SURFACE A 1034 MB HIGH
IS LEADING TO LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS AND STRONG CAA HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TO WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
IS FORECAST TO START DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND QUICKLY SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST LIFT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12-18Z AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH THE
STRONGEST LIFT NEAR THE K-96 AND I-70 CORRIDORS. WITH THE OPEN
AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE IT SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED
SNOW EVENT AS MUCH OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AROUND NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MESOSCALE BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF
~0.50 IN/HR ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE SNOW SHOULD
BE DRY AND POWDERY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
SO THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE SOME LOWERED VISIBILITY WITH THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW AND ROADS QUICKLY BECOMING SNOW COVERED.
GIVEN THAT THE TIMEFRAME OF THE SNOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING
WORK/SCHOOL COMMUTES A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR
AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A PRATT TO DODGE CITY LINE. TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM UP TO AN INCH FROM DODGE CITY TO PRATT (20-30% PROB
OF 1 INCH OR MORE) TO AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF A
WAKEENEY TO LARNED LINE (25-40% PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES). BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NVA AND SUBSIDENCE WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.
AFTER MONDAY THE WEATHER TURNS FAIRLY QUIET WITH LREF UPPER AIR
PATTERNS SHOWING GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW. MAIN HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE BRUNT OF THE
COLDER AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT IMPROVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE AGREE THAT
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO OR BELOW 3000 FEET AGL AFTER 06Z MONDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE TO FALL AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME, IFR
CONDITIONS (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS) ARE LIKELY (>60%
CHANCE) WITH A CHANCE (30-50%) FOR CEILINGS TO OCCASIONALLY FALL
BELOW 1000 FEET AGL. AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES, THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF, WITH EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE HAYS AREA, WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT
SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH AT DODGE CITY, WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>081.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...BURGERT
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