031
FXUS63 KDDC 191707
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF A GARDEN CITY TO
HUGOTON LINE.
- PERSISTENT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 15 TO AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER RISK MIDWEEK NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
SLOWLY CROSSING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
IOWA, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. TEMPERATURES AT THE 850MB LEVEL WERE AROUND 10C WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER.
MODELS TODAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT
SHOWING THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE TEENS TODAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER RIDGE AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
ONGOING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN ADDITION TO THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, AND
MIXING POTENTIAL. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
RAISES CONCERNS FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF
HUMIDITY VALUES CAN FALL BACK TO 15% OR LESS, AS THEY HAVE DONE
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ON MONDAY HOWEVER THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRAW MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SO HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS WHAT
WAS SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL AN OVERLAP OF HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR 15% AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM THE
ELKHART AREA TO GARDEN CITY TO NEAR HAYS. IN THIS AREA NEAR
CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON (40-60%). CURRENTLY BASED ON THE LATEST
SHORT TERM MODELS IT APPEARS THAT WITHIN THIS ARE THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM GARDEN CITY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE
CIMARRON GRASSLANDS. THESE WILL BE MARGINAL CONDITIONS BUT AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE TREND IN LOWER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS FROM SOME OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS AM
CURRENTLY LEARNING TOWARDS ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH THE NEXT
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK.
AS THE DRYLINE CROSSES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL
BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. OF THESE TWO DAYS, THURSDAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LOCATION FURTHER EAST.
SINCE THIS PERIOD IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS CURRENTLY FAVOR THE BOUNDARY BEING BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83
AND HIGHWAY 283 ON WEDNESDAY AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 ON
THURSDAY. THIS SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST AREA OF FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE WEST OF GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL COVER MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ON THURSDAY.
THE LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL NOT
ONLY DETERMINE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT ALSO THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, EACH EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ON WEDNESDAY,
MODELS INDICATE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS OF +50 DEGREES SPREAD NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF IT. WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL HOWEVER EXIST NEAR OR
OVER THE DRYLINE. THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR GIVEN THAT THIS
MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN
DEVELOP(<20%), THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR THAT THEY MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. ON THURSDAY THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND BEGINS TO
OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES ALSO FORECAST
BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
IN THE DAY (EAST OF HIGHWAY 183), INCREASING THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY OUTLINES A 15 TO
29% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA, WHICH STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HAYS AREA WHERE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME EASTERLY ONCE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES LATE DAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD NEBRASKA. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE DAY, BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 15% WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO
GARDEN CITY TO HUGOTON. THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST CONCERN IS IN AN AREA FROM NEAR HAYS TO NEAR GARDEN
CITY TO THE HUGOTON/ELKHART LINE. WITHIN THIS AREA, THE LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH THE
STRONGEST AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY
TO THE CIMARRON GRASSLANDS. AS A RESULT AM LEANING TOWARDS
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM MONDAY.THIS EVENT ON MONDAY IS A
MORE MARGINAL EVENT THEN WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS WEEKEND SO
WILL MONITOR THE LATEST CAMS AND MAKE A FINAL CALL BY 2PM CDT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ063-064-
074>078-084>088.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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