203
FXUS63 KDDC 201008
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
COOLDOWN FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THERE ARE VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT (LESS THAN 10% AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION).
- THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES (20-30%) FOR T-STORMS FRIDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG
I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD, EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE
INTO THE MIDWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES JUST ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE, MINOR DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY KEEP AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF KANSAS, WITH A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL TEND TO STEER ANY COLORADO CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INSTEAD OF
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL ATTEMPT TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS FRIDAY. THEREFORE,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY, WITH
100+ READINGS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. AN ISOLATED
T-STORM OR STORM CLUSTER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND NORTHWESTERLY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT T-STORM FORMATION.
THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY THAT
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW
T-STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS PREDICTED TO PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES. T-STORMS WILL
FORM ON THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES (20%) OF T-STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND ALONG I-70. THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER FOR THE SATURDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH WARMEST READINGS
AT ELKHART AND COOLEST AT HAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ONE OF
THOSE DAYS COULD BE HOTTER IF THE FRONT CAN MANAGE TO BRIEFLY
PUSH BACK NORTHWARD.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK; AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS OR OKLAHOMA. AS A
RESULT, THE CHANCES FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ARE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN A FRONTAL LOCATION SOUTH OF KANSAS AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW,
T-STORM CLUSTERS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE FOOTHILLS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY
DOES EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT ANY CHANCE OF THAT IS VERY LOW. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF STORMS DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE AND CONFIDENCE. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BENNETT
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