731
FXUS63 KDDC 081634
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FORE MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
- HOT AND DRY NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SW KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS FAIRLY UNNOTEWORTHY ASIDE FROM A LOW-
PRESSURE TOUGH SITUATED OVER MEXICO. PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT
OVER THE CWA AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER AFTER
THE DEPARTED WAVE FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 70S, WITH ENSEMBLES HAVING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TO SEE HIGHS REACH 80. OTHER THAN A HICCUP ON
SUNDAY, A QUITE WARM STRETCH IS COMING THIS WEEK.
ON SATURDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FOR NEARLY
THE WHOLE OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MOST PRESSING CONCERN OF
SATURDAY, AND THE WHOLE FORECAST, IS THE STORM POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLES
HAVE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS ON THE BACK HALF OF THE DAYS. NEARLY EVERY CAM HAS SOME SORT
OF CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF THE FEATURE, BUT MUCH DISAGREEMENT IS
STILL PRESENT. THE MEDIAN SOLUTION FOLLOWS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 12Z
HRRR AND NAMNST OF INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG A AXIS FROM LIBERAL TO
HAYS AT AROUND 6 PM. SOME CAMS HAVE THE INITIATION LATER/FARTHER EAST
CONFINING PRECIPITATION INTO THE 6 EASTERN ZONES. SOME OTHER
ODDBALL SOLUTIONS INCLUDE THE RRFS THAT ONLY HAS CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. PERHAPS THE GREATEST CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS
DISAGREE COMES WITH THE DETAILS OF THE MOISTURE BOTH IN AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INVERTED V
PROFILE WITH FAIRLY DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
DRYLINE AS A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AND BROADENING INTO KANSAS. SPECIFICS ASIDE, IT APPEARS
THAT SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THE CWA SATURDAY.
JUST ENOUGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS LIMITATION AND BE ENOUGH FOR HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS IN THE EASTERN
WHERE MORE OF THIS MOISTURE RESIDES. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT HAIL CURRENT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MORE
PRESSING THREAT ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND 15-30% IN THE CENTRAL CWA COUNTIES AND 30-
45% IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK SYSTEM AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND THE ONLY DAY NEXT WEEK FORECAST WITH HIGHS
BELOW 80 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ENSEMBLES HAVE SUBTLE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ON MONDAY OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRIFTING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE WEEK PROVIDING A LONG PERIOD
OF DRY, HEADLINELESS WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CONCERN ASIDE FROM
SATURDAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REOCCURRING MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN FAR SW KANSAS. MORTON AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES HAVE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS AND WIND GUSTS NEARING CRITERIA NEARLY
EVERY DAY AT SUNDAY WITH 15% AND 25 MPH GUSTS RESPECTIVELY.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT BOTH ASPECTS OF THE CRITERIA ARE
MET AT THE SAME TIME FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD DESPITE STILL REMAINING
MARGINAL. THE CLOSEST DAY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE APPEARS TO BE
THURSDAY WHERE AGAIN IT IS VERY MARGINAL. MORE WILL BE SAID ON FIRE
WEATHER IN THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80/90S NEXT WEEK, THE HOTTEST DAY IS FORECAST TO
BE THURSDAY WITH ENSEMBLES HAVING MEANS WILL INTO THE 90S. BARBER
COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND
THURSDAY IS NO EXCEPTION WITH ENSEMBLES PLACING AROUND A 30%
PROBABILITY TO REACH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AT MEDICINE LODGE. THIS
WOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE FOR MID-MAY IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS HELPING TO OFFSET THE COOLER THAN NORMAL LAST FEW
WEEKS THE CWA HAS EXPERIENCED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL START
OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 KTS BEFORE WEAKENING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 2Z. BY AROUND 10Z, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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