664
FXUS63 KDDC 160930
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTICEABLY HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
- THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
NEAR 100, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES NEAR OKLAHOMA.
- A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER RAPID WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MOST OF SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS SITUATED
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
WHAT LINGERING RAIN CHANCES (<20%) STILL EXIST WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY UNDER A WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS INDICATED BY THE SREF. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
FLOW ALOFT, PEAK HEATING SUPPORTING STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ALIVE
A MINIMAL SHOT AT SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF, ONLY
SHOWING A 20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH
ACROSS A SMALL AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE EVENING. A
SIMILAR SETUP EXISTS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP USHER A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY/MID-
AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A TRIGGER POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NBM INDICATING A
20-30% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF TOPPING 0.1 OF AN INCH IN A
CONFINED AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WASHES OUT AFTER MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLIES TO RE-ESTABLISH BY MID/LATE-
AFTERNOON AND HELPING PUSH H5 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
CONSIDERING THE HREF PAINTS A BETTER THAN 90% WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85F AND A BETTER THAN 90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 90F IN AREAS NEAR AND ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA LINE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S(F) IN
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 90S(F) FARTHER SOUTH. THE WARMING
TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY DESPITE A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. WITH
THE NBM SHOWING A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 95F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
NUDGING ABOVE 100F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC, VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT
WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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