065
FXUS63 KDDC 180410
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHWEST KS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
- PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG
WITH MULTIPLE OTHER CHANCES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL STRONG RIDGING IS IN PLACE ATOP THE ARK-LA-TEX
REGION, WITH A POTENT CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. AT
THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
ADJACENT AREAS, WHICH HAS SUPPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. FRIDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT
AS WINDS BECOME SUSTAINED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 35 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG WITH STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. HREF MEMBERS
IMPLY THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHWEST KS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, HOWEVER A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FAVORING OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE AFOREMENTIONED
POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
AND A COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON OUR AREA, PRE-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND PLENTY OF SUN WILL SUPPORT ONE FINAL DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 90S. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FAVORING ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER HREF MEMBERS EXHIBIT PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENT ON SEVERAL FACTORS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS,
FURTHER DAMPENING THE RIDGE IN THE PROCESS. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FROPA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND UNDER LOWER
500-MB HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY FLOW, SOUTHWEST KS WILL ENJOY ITS FIRST
PROLONGED STRETCH OF FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS STAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S RANGE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
EXIST, MOST NOTABLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN NBM HAS WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE CHANCE (25-54%), LIKELY
(55-74%), AND DEFINITE (75-100%) CATEGORIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOA 12 KTS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS BEFORE
WEAKENING BACK DOWN TO AOA 12 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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