897
FXUS63 KDDC 191017
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH "COOLER" TODAY ACROSS THE AREA; TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S NORTH AND UPPER 90S SOUTH
- MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WEST OF ROUTE 83 TODAY; ISOLATED STORMS
COULD LEAD TO 50-60 MPH WINDS AND HAIL TO QUARTER-SIZE
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AFTER QUITE THE HOT DAY YESTERDAY, WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
"COOLER" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAX HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT COOLER
BY THE ACTUAL DEFINITION OF THE WORD, IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE THAN YESTERDAY AND PREVIOUS WEEKS
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF ROUTE 83, AS THEY TRACK OUT OF
COLORADO. WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORABLE AND DCAPES
1200-1500 J/KG, THE MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE STRONG WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60 MPH. WITH MEAGER MUCAPE ABOUT 1000 J/KG, HAIL
WOULD LIKELY BE KEPT AT BAY, BUT A FEW 1" HAILSTONES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ANY STORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
EVENING HOURS, AND EASTERN EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAKING A COMEBACK TO CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY TO BE AROUND AND EXCEEDING THE TRIPLE-DIGITS MARK. LATEST
NBM OUTPUT SHOW 100S RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE-DIGITS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100+ 50-90% CHANCE
ALONG ROUTE 50 AND POINTS SOUTH. SOME PROBABILITIES EXIST
FARTHER NORTH AS WELL, BUT ARE LOWER IN THE 20-40% RANGE. THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT (105-110) APPEAR LESS LIKELY THIS STRETCH, BUT
AREA OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS DO HAVE SOME CHANCE (30-50%) OF
REACHING THOSE RANGES AGAIN. REGARDING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES,
SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) ARE IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY-
FRIDAY NEAR I-70, AND THEN AGAIN EACH DAY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
EVENING MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE HAYS BY 15Z THIS MORNING.
AS THE STORMS EXIT THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LATE DAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (GREATER THAN 9000FT AGL)
WILL SPREAD BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SCATTERED WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT
CURRENTLY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
GARDEN CITY OR LIBERAL. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z AT EITHER OF THESE TAF SITES ARE ONLY 10-15% SO AT THIS TIME
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 12Z TAFS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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