584
FXUS63 KDDC 260507
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE HYDRO PRODUCTS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH LINGERING
BENIGN CONVECTION TONIGHT
- STORM CHANCES FRIDAY STILL HOLD UNCERTAINTY, BUT A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN FAR
WESTERN KANSAS
- AN ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER, MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS NEAR 100 DEGREES, AND
STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO BEGUILE THE ACTIVE
PATTERN BELOW STAYING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE UPPER-CONUS AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES ALONG
THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS GENERATED NUMEROUS SEVERE
CONVECTION IN PANHANDLES STRETCHING INTO COLORADO. EARLIER IN THE
EVENING SOME WEAK CONVECTION INITIATED IN FAR SW KANSAS; ONE OF WHICH
WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL BRIEFLY. THE WEAK LINGERING STORMS
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A HYDRO THREAT WITH MULTIPLE HYDRO PRODUCTS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT INCLUDING FLOOD WARNINGS IN PRATT AND THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN STAFFORD.
MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR CHANCES IF PERTINENT. MODELS/ENSEMBLES
HINT AT SOME WEAK STORMS MOVING IN FROM SE COLORADO AND ENTERING
INTO FAR SW KANSAS, BUT THIS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS. WHETHER THE AREA RECEIVES ANYTHING IS IN DOUBT,
BUT IF IT MATERIALIZES IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BENIGN.
FRIDAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF THE RELATIVELY COOLER AND ACTIVE PERIOD
OF WEATHER. STORMS CHANCES FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 8 PM
WITH STORMS ENTERING KANSAS FROM COLORADO. MODELS STILL DISAGREE
TREMENDOUSLY LIKE THE NAMNST FOR EXAMPLE THAT HAS ALMOST ZERO
CONVECTION. IF THE STORMS DO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH WHEN
REACHING KANSAS, THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND AND
HAIL. MODELED SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE ENVIRONMENT AS VERY MARGINAL AT
BEST. THE EROSION OF FRIDAY MORNING'S CLOUD COVER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE RECOVERY OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND KICK OFF A HOT
STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH HIGHS CONTINUOUSLY IN THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. ENSEMBLES GIVE NEARLY ALL OF SW
KANSAS A >50% TO REACH TRIPLE DIGITS AT SOME POINT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SUNDAY SEEMINGLY LIKE THE WARMEST DAY. SOME AREAS IN FAR SW
KANSAS IS FORECAST TO REACH ALL THE WAY UP TO A HIGH OF 105 DEGREES.
THESE WARM HIGHS WILL LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DEEP INTO
NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE
MUCH WINDIER WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND AT 20-30 MPH.
LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY/TUESDAY BUT AT SUCH LOW CHANCES (<20%) IT WOULD BE WISE TO
WAIT FOR A MORE DEFINITIVE SIGNAL BEFORE MAKING DECLARATIVE
STATEMENTS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PATTERN.
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY DRY OUT REST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RECENT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUELL MUCH OF THE FIRE WEATHER RISK
DESPITE THE STRONGER WINDS. THAT SAID, GENERAL FIRE WEATHER
PRECAUTIONS ARE ADVISED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MISS OUT ON ALL SITES FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. LBL MAY NEED TO MONITOR A STORM COMING OUT OF
COLORADO IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE PERIOD, BUT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. REGARDLESS, LOW CEILINGS IS
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD DROPPING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR. ENSEMBLES KEEP FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT PATCHY AREAS MAY DROP VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4-5SM. BY
AROUND 18Z, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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