943
FXUS63 KDDC 290445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY ANOTHER ON THURSDAY
- A SUB-SEVERE LINE OF STORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH
MORE STORM CHANCES THE NEXT TWO DAYS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING ON SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DESPITE THIS, A LOWER/MID-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRESENT NEAR THE NEBRASKA/COLORADO
BORDER AS A EXTENSIVE LINE OF STORMS HAVE FIRED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
EXCLUDING THE CONTINUED PRESET OF HEAT, THE STORM POTENTIAL IS THE
FORECAST FOCUS.
THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED A SLEW OF WIND GUSTS FROM 60-70 MPH
IN COLORADO. THE LINE OF STORMS HAVE BREACHED THE KANSAS BORDER AND
ONE 50 MPH WIND GUST HAS BEEN RECORDED. IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
IF THE STORMS CAN STRENGTHEN THE COLD POOL. THE SAME CAMS HAVE THE
STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER KANSAS AND BEYOND, SO THE SEVERE
WINDOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR THE BORDER. HOWEVER, IF THE STORMS
OVERPERFORM, GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS
GARDEN CITY. MODELED SOUNDINGS HAVE A GRADIENT OF DROPPING CAPE AND
CLIMBING CIN WITH THE EASTWARD EXTEND. THAT SAID, PW VALUES OF 1.5"
AND DCAPE OF 1500 J/KG WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LINGERING
SEVERE THREAT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOW QUICKLY THEY DIE OFF WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY AT AROUND
3 DEGREES COOLER CWA WIDE. REALISTICALLY, THE DROP WILL NOT BE
NOTICED AS IT WILL STILL FEEL HOT AS THE HOT SUMMER JULY STRETCH
CONTINUES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR CLARK, COMANCHE, PRATT
AND BARBER COUNTIES FROM 1 TO 9 PM. TRADITIONAL HEAT PRECAUTIONS ARE
ADVISED INCLUDING HYDRATION AND COOLING BREAKS. CAMS HAVE HINTED AT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT THE
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN LOW. ENSEMBLES KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW
20% WITH THE BEST OF THESE CHANCES IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
THURSDAY IS MORE OF THE SAME WITH VERY HOT HIGHS AND MARGINAL STORM
CHANCES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST MOSTLY IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE WITH
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT OR ABOVE APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF
105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARRANTED FOR SOME OF
THE COUNTIES THURSDAY. LONG-RANGED CAMS HAVE AN MCS DESCENDING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE FORMATION AND PATH,
IT MAY CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. MORE TIME WILL BE NEEDED TO MONITOR THE
FORECASTED DEVELOPMENT. SOME LATER REDEVELOPMENT MAY INITIATE
CONVECTION IN FAR SW KANSAS LATE THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A DRIER STRETCH IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A TAD COOLER WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S AS OPPOSED TO THE 100 DEGREE DAYS
OF THIS WEEK. NO WEATHER HEADLINES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENTLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE SW KANSAS. A
LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND MAY IMPACT THE
KGCK AND KLBL SITES IN THE COMING HOURS AND HAVE PROB30 GROUPS AS A
REFLECTION OF THAT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED AT ALL
SITES WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BY AROUND 18Z, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ081-
088>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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