167
FXUS63 KDDC 210445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AMIDST LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS MODEST TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
- TEMPERATURE TREND REVERSES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS
FALL FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A RANGE OF 0.75-2" OF
TOTAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
TUESDAY EVENING REVEAL WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SIGNIFICANT, CUT-OFF TROUGH
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE REACHES FROM ITS CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC,
CANADA, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN
MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, 10-15 MPH WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL SUPPORT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OUT WEST WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD
AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES CONSIDERABLY, EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. AS A
RESULT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL BE REINFORCED,
YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERMIT
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY
AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OUT WEST AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD INCH
EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EAST-CENTRAL
MT AND ADJACENT AREAS, WHICH WILL ENGENDER MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH. ADDITIONALLY, 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY 2-
4 DEGREES C, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES
IT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT A STEADY, MODERATE COOLING
TREND AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY TO
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUESDAY AND BEYOND. FURTHERMORE, THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER WAVE IS IDEAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS, AND THIS IS INDEED REFLECTED BY THE NBM, WHICH PAINTS
PLENTY OF CHANCE (25-54%) TO LIKELY (55-74%) POPS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS WELL AS THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS MEAN
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS WHICH ARE IN THE 1-2" AND 0.75-1.5"
RANGE, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH NEXT MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 10-13 KT RANGE WILL WEAKEN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND 09Z TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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