703
FXUS63 KDDC 121648
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1148 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER AIR FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MIDNIGHT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CLEAR SKY OVER
SW KS, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OUTLINED A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING WAY
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 70S. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WAS IN
PLACE, WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 60 MPH KEEPING SOUTH WINDS
ELEVATED AT THE GROUND. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNRISE, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 70 AT MANY
LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE WILL BE A GOOD FORECASTING TOOL INTO MONDAY, WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND NOT CHANGING. A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN SWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW OVER SW KS ANOTHER DAY, WITH ELEVATED TO STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND UNSEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES OF 90-93 ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON AT 3 PM, ABOUT
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. SW WINDS FROM THE NBM
WERE SEVERAL KNOTS TOO WEAK, AND INCREASED THEM WITH 20-30 MPH
WINDS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG CLOSED MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GRAND CANYON BY 7 PM TUESDAY, AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO OVER 50 KTS AS A
RESULT. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, WITH A COLD FRONT BISECTING SW KS BY 7 PM TUESDAY. A
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION BETWEEN THIS COLD FRONT AND THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN SW KS, WITH NAM PLACING THE BEST
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION, FROM DODGE CITY
SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY EVENING. MANY CAMS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
ALL SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE SOUTHEAST ZONES
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH NBM POPS IN THE LIKELY/DEFINITE CATEGORY
QUITE REASONABLE. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
SUPERCELLS, SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, WITH HAIL
1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH. IF A
DISCRETE STORM MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED - AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
REMAINING SURFACE-BASED - SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF A
LIBERAL-DODGE CITY-LARNED LINE 3-10 PM TUESDAY. MORE LOWER 90S
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
INCREASING INDICATIONS THAT A DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE RATHER AGGRESSIVELY WEDNESDAY, WITH STRATUS, NORTHEAST
WINDS, AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RESTRICTED TO THE 50S THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. NBM IS STILL WAY TOO WARM, BUT IT IS TRENDING
COOLER WITH EACH UPDATE. THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY
VERIFY, WITH NAM SHOWING STRATUS AND DRIZZLE PERSISTING ALL DAY
WITH ITS CLASSIC LIGHT DRIZZLE QPF SIGNATURE. WITH SURFACE COLD
AIR AGGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHWARD, THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ANY
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF SW KS, BUT OVERRUNNING,
STRATIFORM SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
NO LATER THAN THURSDAY MORNING, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE RUSHING
INTO SW KS ON STRONG NORTH WINDS. NBM/MEX GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
TREND COOLER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RESTRICTED TO THE 60S. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO ESCAPE
THE 50S EVEN IN FULL SUNSHINE. STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE RIDGING
WILL WEDGE ITS WAY INTO SW KS, DELIVERING THE COOLEST MORNING SO
FAR THIS FALL SEASON SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT
NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNRISE SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMMON. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE AROUND THE HYS TERMINAL WHERE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY,
IN THE LOWER 90S, LOWERING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 20-25% ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES. HERE, THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD WILL BE ELEVATED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON, IN AREAS WHERE VEGETATION FUELS
HAVE BECOME DORMANT. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY, BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR ENDS THE FIRE
RISK COMPLETELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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