094
FXUS63 KDDC 022247
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
547 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF THE
WORKWEEK
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK
- OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY WE
SHOULD HAVE NON IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
18Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IN EASTERN
KANSAS IS COMBINING WITH A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO WHICH IS LEADING TO RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
OVERALL A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO END THE WEEKEND HOWEVER WE SHOULD
HAVE A LITTLE MORE WIND ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM LIBERAL
TO LARNED ON EAST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AS A SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW AND A TROUGH WILL LINE UP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN DRIER AIR AS HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL TO 10-15%. AREAS IN THE RED HILLS COULD SEE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER AS THE COMBINATION OF STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR THERE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY SHOULD BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWNSLOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 25 (C) AND WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN THROUGH THE DAY WE SHOULD HAVE HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN COLDER AND WETTER FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS
OF THE WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING POLAR JET WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE INITIALLY ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS A
STRONG TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PROVIDE GOOD DYNAMIC
LIFT. THE COLD AIR MASS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIZABLE CHANCES OF STORMS
AND A SUCH THIS EVENT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE HIGHEST FROM JOHNSON TO HAYS WITH A 70-
80% CHANCE AND LESSER PROBABILITIES AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
STATE. PRATT TO ASHLAND ON EAST IS AT 40-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH. TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS WITH DAYTIME HEATING BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...FINCH
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