030
FXUS63 KDDC 252200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER EASTERN COUNTIES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SUNSHINE RETURNS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S.
- SUNNY WARM DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO ARRIVE ON
THE PLAINS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING AND HYDROLOGY IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, PENDING THE EXACT STORM TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KDDC WSR-88D DEPICTS WIDESPREAD RAIN TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG A CAPE AXIS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, RESULTING IN INCREASING
SBCAPE UP AROUND 2,000 J/KG, WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD
KEEP ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT BAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
INSTANCE OF FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET GROUNDS. STORMS WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ONLY LOW POPS (20-30%)
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ARE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
CAMS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY, BUT WILL
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STORM AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. IF
A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN, THEN ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S
WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS. INTO NEXT WEEK, GLOBALS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT ANOTHER WET PERIOD BEGINNING
MONDAY, THROUGH TUESDAY, AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO FEATURE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM CURRENT POWERFUL
HURRICANE POLO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO AND INTO NEW MEXICO
MONDAY/TUESDAY, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN
THE STRONG CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS. NBM 48-HOUR PROBABILITY
QPF OF 1" OR GREATER IS 60-80% ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 2"
PROBABILITIES 50-60% FOR EASTERN ZONES. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LEADING TO
AREAS OF FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
RADAR AT 22Z FRI DEPICTED THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS EAST OF THE AIRPORTS, WITH AT LEAST
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY (VCSH) AT DDC/HYS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY REESTABLISH AT HYS OVERNIGHT, WHERE
CEILINGS WERE REDUCED DOWN TO IFR AROUND 12Z SAT. AFTER 15Z SAT,
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, WITH RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST, WITH SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS GUSTING 20-23 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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