609
FXUS63 KDDC 270432
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1032 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TURKEY DAY
- TURNING COLD OVER THE WEEKEND
- SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD IS
NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME, A QUIET WEATHER NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE KANSAS
PRAIRIE, BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
VALUES IN THE 20S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED.
A DRY AND MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S DOWN SOUTH. WINDS WILL START
OUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY AS
A WEAK SFC TROF MOVES THROUGH. LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 20S.
FOR FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL START TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS WITH A LEE LOW DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. THE NET RESULT IS A
BREEZY AND WARM FRIDAY. HIGHS COULD PEAK NEAR 60F IN THE WEST TO
THE 50S IN THE EAST. EVEN WITH THE WARMTH AND WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WITH THE WAA.
FOR SATURDAY, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING WITH STRONGER WINDS PRE
AND POST FRONTAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
40S AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
WITH THE HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND TEMPS DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COLD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH VALUES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE EC HAS SOME SNOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS SNOW AS WELL, BUT DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW DEVELOPING IN AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION.
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE YET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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