752
FXUS63 KDDC 261629
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1129 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF 110.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF KANSAS, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG I-70.
- ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS 700MB
TEMPERATURES PER ENSEMBLE MEANS HOVER BETWEEN 17 AND 19C ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL DRYING HAS BEGUN ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD TODAY. THUS, HEAT INDICES
WILL BE AT OR BELOW THE TEMPERATURES--BETWEEN 105 AND 109.
THEREFORE THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS BY MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH
COOL OUTFLOW OCCURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FROM
DODGE CITY SOUTHWARD MAY STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 100 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IF THE FRONT DOESN'T PASS. ALONG I-70, HIGHS SHOULD
STAY IN THE 90S; BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY IN THIS AREA WILL STILL
MAKE IT FEEL VERY HOT. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE WEST,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
AND WESTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED T-STORMS CAN'T BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT; BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN KANSAS
WILL RECEIVE BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. ANY ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS THAT WE OFTEN SEE IN LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KANSAS GIVEN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY MID LEVEL STEERING
FLOW. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS CHANCES FOR .25" OR GREATER OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK AROUND 20% ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE
LINE AND 40% ALONG I-70; BUT CHANCES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS
ARE VERY LOW (5-20%).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, GUSTING TO OVER 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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