626
FXUS63 KDDC 220445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AMIDST GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DAYTIME FRIDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, WITH 0.5-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING REVEAL A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN
PLACE ATOP THE CONUS, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, AND A POWERFUL CUT-
OFF LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, SUPPORTING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH THE CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY 00Z FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EASTERN MT AND ADJACENT
AREAS, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE GUSTING TO 35 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, 850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BY 2-4 DEGREES C, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, FOSTERING WEAKER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE DEEP UPPER WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS DPVA
INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, THE LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN TO SUB-
1000-MB, ENGENDERING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. AT
THEIR PEAK DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
BE SUSTAINED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH. ON THE
OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL AS DECREASING 500-MB
HEIGHTS BRINGS AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL STALL OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA FINALLY KICKS IT OUT ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS
IDEAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY, BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD DAYTIME SUNDAY, THEN EXITING STAGE RIGHT ON MONDAY. ONCE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE EARLY TUESDAY, BOTH THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS MEAN
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS SHOW 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL ROUGHLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A HAYS-MEADE LINE, AND 1-2" TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FALL CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S ON SATURDAY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
TAF CYCLE SHOW VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL
TERMINALS. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z, MAINLY AT GCK AND LBL, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
DDC, WHICH WOULD BRING VISIBILITY INTO IFR/LIFR. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX
OUT BY 15-16Z, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, CURRENT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE WINDS IS LIKELY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WINDS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 12-16
KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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