391
FXUS63 KDDC 260520
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1220 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD BREAKING HEAT TODAY
- 40 TO 50 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY!
- WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY IS QUITE THE INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE MOST EXTREME
AND RECORD BREAKING HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT POSITIONS ITSELF. RIGHT NOW, AM BEING AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
POSITION AND HAVING IT ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50. SO, WENT WITH UPPER
90S FOR GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE FRONT COULD
END UP HALF A COUNTY OR SO TO THE SOUTH, IN WHICH THESE HIGHS WOULD
BE A BIT TOO HIGH. THE WORST AND HIGHEST OF THE TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE ACROSS MEADE AND CLARK COUNTIES AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE PANHANDLE. HERE, HIGHS IN THE 101F-104F RANGE LOOK CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE A STATE LEVEL RECORD BREAK FOR MARCH. WITH
THE EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES, THE WORST OF THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE FELT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE BOTTOM LINE TODAY IS DO NOT BURN
AND ANY FIRES THAT ARE ACTIVE BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL
BE SUBJECT TO A SUDDEN AND DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES
THROUGH. LASTLY, THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SPRINKLES
TO EVEN A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FA.
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES FRIDAY. INTENSE CAA WITH
850 HPA TEMPERATURES CRASHING WILL LEAD TO 40 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH
AS 50 DEGREE COOLER READINGS FRIDAY. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
NWS OFFICES AND HAVE GONE COOLER WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE FA FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND LOWS AROUND FREEZING WILL BE LIKELY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND A WAA
PATTERN WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. THE NET RESULT
IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH 60S AND 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90F SUNDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES WITH NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS NEARBY.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK, THE NBM HAS POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT
MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE LEFT
THESE POPS ALONE FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
MILD TO WARM WITH ANOTHER FROPA POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A 50 KT LLJ WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT
LLWS FOR KDDC/KHYS/KLBL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
S/SW WINDS 10-20 KT TO EVENTUALLY BECOME N TO NE BY EVENING. WIND
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE 20-32 KT POST-FRONTAL WITH GUSTS 35+ KT.
THERE MAYBE A SHOWER OR TSRA THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE OF
DIRECT IMPACT IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
EXTREME AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR AND HUMIDITIES WILL CRASH. THE NET
RESULT IS RED FLAG CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. A STRONG AND DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE NOON TO 6 PM TIMEFRAME. ANY FIRE THAT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL THEN BE SUBJECT TO THIS SUDDEN WIND SHIFT.
THE WORST OF THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SYRACUSE,
TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT AND AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE.
WINDS WILL START TO S/SW, THEN W, THEN N TO NE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THOUGH. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY POST-FRONTAL AND
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY. PLEASE DO NOT BURN AND BE AWARE OF THE DRAMATIC
WIND SHIFT LATER TODAY!
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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