968
FXUS63 KDDC 282215
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TODAY AFTER THE BRIEF
COOLDOWN, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
- ANOTHER JUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS HIGHS PEAK
IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MIDDAY
REVEAL A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS DIXIE ALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD LEE CYCLONE
FROM EASTERN CO THROUGH EASTERN MT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ACQUIRES A STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BECOMING SUSTAINED IN THE 15-
25 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THIS ALONG WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY 3-5 DEGREES C UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DNVA WILL ENGENDER A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSES
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HOWEVER A STRAY SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
EMERGING FROM EASTERN CO AND/OR NORTHWEST KS AND IMPACTING OUR
NORTHWEST/NORTH ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO INCH EASTWARD, REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW WHILE EXPANDING, WITH ITS
CENTER SHIFTING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND BE SUSTAINED
IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ONCE AGAIN. THESE
MODESTLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER JUMP IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WHILE
NO HEAT ADVISORY IS FORTHCOMING, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE
TAKEN TO MITIGATE OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GROW TO ENCOMPASS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN CONUS, SAVE FOR FAR SOUTHERN CA AND ADJACENT AREAS. UNDER
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, SOUTHWEST KS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE HEELS OF A PROLONGED HOT AND DRY STRETCH AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
LINGER IN THE 100-105 RANGE WITH SCANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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