146
FXUS63 KDDC 151027
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
527 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- A HOT WEEKEND
- POSSIBLE MONSOON MOISTURE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A STRONG 600 DECAMETER ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AT 00Z. THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE FA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS VERY WARM BUT SEASONABLE
HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE, AND A DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
FIELD LIKELY DEVELOPING BY NOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW. GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF >100F HIGHS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THUS, HIGHS NEAR NORMAL (WHICH IS NEAR LOW TO MID 90S) ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. LOWS OF A MIX FROM
THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING SINKING SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED
IN INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 100F DURING THIS
PERIOD PER THE GRAND ENSEMBLE. THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WHERE A SEASONABLY STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE STATE. LOWS WILL ALSO TREND WARMER WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE 70S.
LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS HINT AT THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTH ENOUGH BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN ACROSS
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. PWATS ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE
IN THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE. THIS MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
RELATED ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM. THE HIGHEST POPS WOULD THEREFORE
REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. UPSLOPE FLOW/CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING CLOSER
TO WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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