187
FXUS63 KDDC 301607
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH STRONG,
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED WEST OF A
HAYS TO LIBERAL LINE BOTH DAYS.
- SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO 100.
- A WARMING TREND POSSIBLE EARLY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES BY EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO NEAR 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
EARLIER THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARD NEBRASKA.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE/DRYLINE WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WERE OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH EVENING
CONVECTION ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRYLINE, ONLY HIGH
BASED EVENING CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
DISSIPATING GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN).
GIVEN THE INCREASING CIN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, THE RISK OF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT NOW IS NEAR ZERO. ADDITIONALLY, 850MB TEMPERATURES
EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY, AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS UP TO 5F LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. DESPITE THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDEX READINGS STILL CLIMBED INTO THE 100F TO
103F RANGE, WITH MEDICINE LODGE REPORTING A HEAT INDEX OF 105F
AT 2 PM.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TODAYS THICKER CLOUD COVER
ALIGNS WELL WITH THE AXIS WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHER INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT WAS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. USING
THIS AS A GUIDE FOR TOMORROW, COMBINED WITH IMPROVING LIFT AND
MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN AFFECT TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND
THE 850-700MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z
WEDNESDAY, NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE IN SUGGESTING THAT
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, SO NO HEAT ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN
KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL ALSO
BE AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AFTERNOON DAY INSTABILITY, AND TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES
(WEAK COLD FRONT AND A DRYLINE) THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE DAY WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS THAT THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS TUESDAY
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS GIVEN HIGH BASE CLOUD BASES, INVERTED
V PROFILE AND DCAPE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE EVENT GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY
AND A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE
COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LATE
DAY STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY, ONCE AGAIN, WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL,
GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGH CLOUD BASES, AND
FORECAST DCAPE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS, IT APPEARS THAT THIS
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES MID WEEK...THE LATEST ENSEMBLES WERE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 70TH AND 80TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO THE 25TH TO 75TH 850MB TEMPERATURE
SPREAD OF LESS THAN 5C EACH AFTERNOON FROM ALL THE ENSEMBLE HAVE
PROVIDED ME WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-80%) THAT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS OF HIGHS THAT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
MOVING FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, 850MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR 30C. FOR EARLY JULY, THIS VALUE IS
GREATER THAN THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR WESTERN KANSAS, SUGGESTING
THAT HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 100, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 BY THE START OF THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND (SATURDAY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS SOUTH OF A NEAR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE
LIKELY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, THEN BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-20KT
THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page