440
FXUS63 KDDC 191715
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, WITH WEDNESDAY
AND/OR THURSDAY CARRYING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, RESULTING IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND DAMPEN AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ASHORE ABOVE THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS
IS UNDERWAY IN CO, SUPPORTING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES FOR ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW NO SIGNS
OF THIS CLOUD DECK THINNING GIVEN THE NEGLIGIBLE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
WHICH WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
PEAKING IN THE LOW 80S. FARTHER EAST WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR, HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SOME HREF
MEMBERS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS MAY WANDER INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
NEAR I-70. AT LEAST MODEST MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PROMOTE SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN OUT COMPLETELY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RAPIDLY ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN
RESPONSE, A LEE CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO WILL DEEPEN TO ~990-MB,
FOSTERING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPING 850-MB WINDS WILL PUSH
850-MB TEMPERATURES UPWARD BY 5-7 DEGREES C, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO A NOTICEABLE RISE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 90S
WEST.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN CO STRENGTHENS, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MID-60S
DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND SOUTHEAST CO, ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO
SHARPEN JUST WEST OF THE KS/CO BORDER. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, ALL HREF MEMBERS
DEPICT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN EASTERN CO ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY 20-21Z. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, INDICATING THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
HOWEVER LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE THIS THREAT. THAT SAID, IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO REACH THE KS/CO BORDER AS ALL HREF MEMBERS SHOW UPSCALE
GROWTH AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONGEALING INTO AN MCS
AS THEY ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES, SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL TRANSITION FROM LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL WEST OF KS-25 TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND EAST OF KS-25. ONCE THIS
TRANSITION IS COMPLETE, THE SEVERE MCS WILL ROLL EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FINALLY
EXITING STAGE RIGHT BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ATOP THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TO THE EAST. AS THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION UNFOLDS, ENSEMBLES IMPLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION/COLD FROPAS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S. ENS AND GEFS
METEOGRAMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH NBM POPS PEAKING IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY (55-74%).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INDICATE EARLIER MVFR
STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO LOW-END VFR. LATEST CONSHORT SUGGESTS VFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, FOLLOWED BY MVFR STRATUS
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO HYS AND PERHAPS DDC AND GCK AS WELL. AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW, SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD PERMIT A RETURN TO VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, CURRENT MODEST
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND THEN BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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