111
FXUS63 KDDC 120608
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
108 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY; STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST RISKS
- HEAT CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS; COOL DOWN ON THE WAY WITH
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MESOANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN ENHANCED WAVE SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SLOW AND
PERHAPS STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS A TAD EARLIER THAN NBM HAD GIVEN
TO ACCOUNT FOR HREF MEMBERS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
21-23Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
INCREASED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS, AND MLCAPE 2500-3000
J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD
YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WET
MICROBURST AND SEVERE HAIL. PWATS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 1.3-1.5",
WHICH IS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY, SO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING, WITH STORMS STILL A
POSSIBILITY INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES.
HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY, SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S, THOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE 80S. EVERYWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET BACK INTO THE 90S AND EVEN A
FEW 100S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL BE SPLIT ONCE AGAIN BY A COLD FRONT.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE FRONT POSITIONED FROM LARNED, THROUGH
DODGE CITY, AND DOWN TOWARD LIBERAL. AREA SOUTH OF THAT AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S AND CLOSE TO 100 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS, WHEREAS AREAS NORTH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
IT IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY WHERE EVERYONE IS SEEING REPRIEVE FROM
THE HEAT WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SOME 50S AND LOW 60S
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY WITH
SOME VARYING LEVEL OF CHANCE AND PLACEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20% OR LESS) FOR STORMS TO
IMPACT DDC AND LBL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT GIVEN
THE VERY LOW CHANCES, ELECTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW. WILL EVALUATE CONFIDENCE IN LATER UPDATES. OTHERWISE, A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A WIND
SHIFT THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
IN HYS AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY 15-20
KNOTS WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR AREAS LIKE DDC AND LBL, GIVEN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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