589
FXUS63 KDDC 051715
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY AUTUMN WARMTH EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PERIOD. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
- THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THIS MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A NORTHWEST EARLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
IOWA A A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
TOWARDS NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING THROUGH
THE START OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DESPITE
THE WEAK COLD FRONT MID WEEK. THIS PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE ENDING BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
EARLY AUTUMN WARMTH EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PERIOD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 20 TO
AROUND 25C RANGE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ON
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
STALL OUT TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S) WHILE NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING MORE
SEASONAL (HIGHS AROUND 80). WHAT COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, AIR THAT
DOES FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ERODE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THIS COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTH BACK INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE
FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON LATE WEEK THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES. MODELS THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT, SIGNIFICANT, UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNTIED STATES AND DEEPENS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOW
(<30%) BUT AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS THE
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW LATE WEEK ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS OUT NEXT COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. WHEN THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR HOWEVER IS UNCLEAR
SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES
IMPROVING ON MONDAY AS COOLER AIR RETURNS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WILL DEEPEN TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS. LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE GARDEN CITY AREA. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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