531
FXUS63 KDDC 212314
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING, BUT
COVERAGE AND SEVERITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. COVERAGE WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW JUNE NORMALS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A WET PATTERN WILL HOLD MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. DURING EACH THUNDERSTORM EPISODE SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR WIND IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRY WEATHER AND MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR T-STORM MAINTENANCE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND AMPLE CAPE WAS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE TO
KEEP SEVERE THREAT GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL IS A
CONCERN EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE STORMS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
DISCRETE; BUT HAIL SIZE WILL COME DOWN LATER AS MORE OF A LINEAR
MODE TAKES OVER. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THE STORM LINE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
ABSENT AND THIS WILL REDUCE ANY TORNADO CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL SRH
VALUES ARE VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED REMAINING STRATUS DISSOLVING
ACROSS SW KS, COURTESY OF THE STRONGEST SUNSHINE OF THE YEAR.
ATMOSPHERE WILL RECOVER RAPIDLY AFTER LAST NIGHT'S MCS, WITH
INSTABILITY MOUNTING THROUGH 7 PM. CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
WILL BE COMMON BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
LARGELY REMOVED. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL FOCUS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 4 PM, AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM WYOMING. GIVEN THIS TRIGGERING MECHANISM AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, GLOBAL MODELS AND NUMEROUS CAMS AGREE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE IN/NEAR THE NORTHWEST ZONES ABOUT 7 PM. SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, THROUGH
PERHAPS 9 PM, BEFORE QUICKLY CONGEALING INTO THE NEXT MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). POPS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE MOST
LIKELY MCS TRACK. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, OUTFLOW WINDS OF 60-70
MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK, WITH 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL
EARLIER IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. SPC 15% SEVERE WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITY REMAINS FOR THIS EVENING ALL ZONES, ALTHOUGH
NORTHWEST ZONES WILL BE FAVORED FOR COVERAGE AND SEVERITY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY,
WITH EASTERLY WIND COMPONENTS RESTRICTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO THE MID 70S NORTHEAST TO MID 80S SOUTHWEST. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF MONDAY, BUT WITH THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
INITIATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY RISK, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED TO THESE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD,
WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A CLASSIC PREFERRED MCS
TRACK FOR SW KS. WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH NEAR NEW MEXICO,
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AIDING DAILY ROUNDS OF HIGHER TERRAIN
CONVECTION. MODELS SUGGEST 2-3 MCSS ARE PROBABLE DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH EXCESSIVE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS. NBM POPS ARE ALREADY AGGRESSIVELY IN THE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND
HYDROLOGY PRODUCTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERNS WITH EACH MCS.
BETWEEN WET SOILS, RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY, AS SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW RETURNS, AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A DRYLINE. MUCH DRIER, HOTTER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO SW KS NEXT WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES REMOVED AND MUCH
HOTTER AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE
STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS. ALL TAFS HAVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE CHANCE
THAT ALL TERMINALS ARE IMPACTED. STORMS TAPER OFF LATE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...FINCH
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER/BENNETT
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