986  
FXUS63 KDDC 231050  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
550 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT  
CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS  
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY IN A WARM SECTOR JUST SOUTH  
OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN ORGANIZING SURFACE LOW  
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS HINTED BY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CAMS, AN  
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK  
H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE  
HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING CAP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO  
SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN  
EXCESS OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO A COUPLE OR  
SO COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PULL  
WARMER AIR UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH,  
PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  
TO THE NORTH, AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING STRATUS MAY KEEP  
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.  
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 60S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE 70S(F).  
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S(F) DEPENDING ON HOW LONG  
ANY CLOUD COVER LINGERS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS MEDIUM  
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING  
EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRIER PATTERN CONTINUING  
INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO  
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY  
TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLE  
MOISTURE RETURN SETTING UP THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
INCREASING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING  
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY  
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S(F) TO THE LOWER/MID 70S(F). A RE-ESTABLISHED  
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING QUICKLY  
DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH, RETURNING SOUTHERLIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS COULD  
BE PUSHING THE 80S(F) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW  
LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH  
MID/LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY  
OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON  
AS THE STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 77 52 71 40 / 10 10 0 0  
GCK 73 46 70 39 / 10 10 10 0  
EHA 85 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0  
LBL 87 51 74 41 / 10 10 0 0  
HYS 68 52 65 36 / 20 20 20 0  
P28 85 62 75 43 / 20 20 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...JJOHNSON  
 
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