959
FXUS63 KDDC 150924
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE,
FAVORING THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES, WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
NEAR 100 DEGREES.
- THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES,
REDUCED BACK TO THE 80S THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SW KS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRIFTING EAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TODAY AS THE SREF INDICATES A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA CYCLING SOUTHEAST OFF A RIDGE AXIS SITUATED NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST, AND THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, INTRODUCING AN INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR
THE COLORADO LINE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH MUCAPE
VALUES PUSHING UPWARD OF 1000 TO POTENTIALLY 1500 J/KG. DESPITE
A LESS THAN ROBUST FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. AS
SUGGESTED BY THE HREF, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST OF A SCOTT CITY TO MEDICINE
LODGE LINE WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH BY LATE EVENING. DIMINISHING RAIN
CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY UNDER A WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHERLIES RETURN
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL PULL
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE
15C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
TOPPING 80F, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S(F).
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH THE HELP OF PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES, PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS UP INTO THE MID 80S(F) TO
NEAR 90F.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR AND GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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