740
FXUS63 KDDC 042235
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
..UPDATED AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BETWEEN A STRONG CUT-OFF RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A STRONG
CUT-OFF LOW OVER CANADA. AS THESE FEATURES REMAIN FIXED IN PLACE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART FOR
GREENER PASTURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AND A WEAK LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS
SOUTHERLY AS A RESULT, BUT NOT EXCEED 10 MPH GIVEN A MOSTLY
INCONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EQUALLY QUIET, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MONDAY MORNING, THE INFLUENCE OF THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WEAK POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL ONLY HALT THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. COLD AIR FINALLY PUSHES EQUATORWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KS
MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TREND NORTHEASTERLY, ALLOWING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-WESTERLY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PROGRESS FOR THIS FEATURE WILL
BE SLOW AT FIRST, AND TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY FOR
SOUTHWEST KS WITH LIGHT WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL PUSH FORWARD, INDUCING LEE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN
SOUTHEAST CO OR ADJACENT NORTHEAST NM. MASS RESPONSE WILL RESULT
IN WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND ALLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE AS WELL DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HOWEVER MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR, WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING THE MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS ALSO THROWS INTO
QUESTION HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST KS CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AS A SLOWER WAVE EJECTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE
QPF. GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
WAVE TODAY, AND THE CONTINUED STRONG EPS SUPPORT, CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL PERSISTS, LATEST NBM
POPS APPROACHING THE LIKELY CATEGORY (55-74%) OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15-24%) EXTENDING TO THE KS/CO
BORDER WERE ACCEPTED. THAT SAID, QPF TOTALS WILL STILL ASSUREDLY
BE PALTRY, WITH MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, BUT RELAX FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS IT PULLS AWAY. THIS LATEST SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL REACH
THE MID 40S/LOW 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FOSTERING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE REGARDING KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES, RENDERING PREDICTABILITY
LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
CIRRUS. CURRENT CIRRUS OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS NEAR P28
OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY STRATUS TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE AIRPORTS. LIGHT WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z MON. AFTER 18Z MON, A WEAK DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A NELY WIND SHIFT, WITH NE WINDS GUSTING MODESTLY 20-23 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 31 55 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 30 55 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 37 63 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 32 62 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 26 47 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
P28 34 57 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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