816
FXUS63 KDDC 241735
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE BOTH DAYS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY IT WHILE WE HAVE IT
BECAUSE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WERE OBSERVED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE APPEARING ON WATER VAPOR LOOP NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA. THESE
UPPER WAVES WERE ROTATING AROUND A 500MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS THIS MORNING
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE TODAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS WESTWARD. BY EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, SIMILAR TO RECENT NIGHTS, AND THEN
TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN RISK FROM THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF
50 MPH HIGHER.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH WESTERN KANSAS.
MODELS APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THIS
UPPER WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA EARLIER TODAY.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE IMPROVING INSTABILITY AND LIFT
FORECAST LATE TUESDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. THESE STORM MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A INSTABILITY/0-1KM THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS OVERNIGHT. IF THESE STORMS CLUSTER TOGETHER
OVERNIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A RISK TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS (AROUND 1.5 INCHES) FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR A FEW AREAS COULD HAVE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREA AND SECONDARY ROADS.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL
UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW CROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
ALSO FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE SOME COOLER,
MORE SEASONAL, AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND
GIVEN THIS COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THE HIGHS
MIDWEEK WILL ON AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE CURRENTLY EXPECT TODAY(MONDAY). HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S BEING
POSSIBLE AROUND GARDEN CITY AND ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF. BY
LATE WEEK THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AND BASED ON THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IT
APPEARS THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH MID
TO UPPER THE 90S LATE WEEK WITH 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BETWEEN
21Z TODAY AND 00Z TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STORMS WILL CROSS THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE DODGE CITY AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND
14Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BUT CEILING MAY FALL INTO THE 3000 TO 6000FT AGL JUST
PRIOR TO THE STORMS PASSING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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