880
FXUS63 KDDC 061858
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREMELY HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (UP TO 60%) FOR RAIN
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A T-STORM THIS EVENING
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK STATE LINE AND ANY STORM THAT
MANAGES TO FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. LATER
TONIGHT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THEN
MOVE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS
EASTERN KANSAS. CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ARE
VERY LOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (20% OR LESS), WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES (30-40%) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO VERY HOT WEATHER, WITH HIGHS FROM 100-105 DEGREES SATURDAY
AND 102 TO 107 BY SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF I-70, RESULTING
IN DEEP MIXING AND DILUTION OF THE MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL,
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
NEVERTHELESS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BY MID NEXT
WEEK. THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CLUSTERS
ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
COOLER ALONG I-70; BUT 100 DEGREE HEAT MAY PERSIST ALONG THE
KS/OK STATE LINE, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOW. T-STORMS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY BY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE WESTERLIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY THURSDAY,
WITH THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWING 60-70% CHANCES FOR .5" OR
GREATER OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE FRONTAL
LOCATION WILL MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN RAINFALL PATTERNS AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER RAINS COULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD IF
THE FRONTAL SURGE IS STRONGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPRESSED BY THE 75TH/90TH PERCENTILES, WHICH INDICATE
1" AND EVEN 2" RAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS (OVC012)
AT KHYS WILL GRADUALLY RISE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WHILE SCATTERING OUT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP AT KGCK AND KDDC, WITH BASES RISING
FROM 3KFT TO 5KFT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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