126
FXUS63 KDDC 080516
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS BACKING
OFF A LITTLE WEDNESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE
SREF INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA, HELPING NUDGE AN ANCHORED ATTENDANT LEE
SIDE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL HELP REINFORCE
POOLED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO NEAR 60F, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MARGINAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
ALOFT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS H5
VORT MAXIMA EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INTERACTING
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST CAMS AND WHERE THE HREF SHOWS
A 20 TO 40% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) SHIFT FARTHER
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO PUSH
SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES REINFORCE THE MUCH WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S(C) IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
A LITTLE ABOVE 30C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE COLORADO
LINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 90S(F) BEHIND THE
ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE LATEST HREF
INDICATES A BETTER THAN A 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
90F BUT ONLY A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 95F. HOTTER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE HREF PAINTS A 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF HIGHS NUDGING ABOVE 100F. THE RUN OF TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ENDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
IN WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES BELOW 25C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO EVEN NEAR 20C
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THERE IS ONLY A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
85F TO MAINLY THE 90S(F) FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE 15
TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT GENERALLY AFTER 13-15Z AS AN APPROACHING
LEE SIDE TROUGH AXIS STALLS OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DOWN INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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