816
FXUS63 KDDC 261018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED, IN THE 70S.
- AN INTENSE COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY INTENSE NORTH WINDS, MUCH COLDER AIR, AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SNOW FLURRIES.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS.
- THE LONG DRY STRETCH WILL CONTINUE, WITH NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH JANUARY 4TH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
MIDNIGHT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A PERFECTLY CLEAR
SKY ACROSS SW KS AND ADJOINING AREAS, WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRMING ANY FOG/STRATUS WAS REMAINING IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH MIDNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR LATE DECEMBER. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEDGE OF COLDER AIR, IN
THE 30S, NEAR HAYS AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES AT
SUNRISE FRIDAY WILL BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL, ABOVE FREEZING, DESPITE
A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
YET ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY FRIDAY, WITH FEW CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS,
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS, IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. MODELS DO DEPICT ABOUT 5C WORTH OF COOLING AT
850 MB TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A FEW DEGREES LESS WARM TODAY. STILL, MODELS HAVE BEEN
SYSTEMATICALLY TOO COOL FOR DAYS IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM
PATTERN. DESPITE VERY POOR MIXING, WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY, RECORD HIGHS FOR
DECEMBER 26 WILL AGAIN BE CHALLENGED. MODELS SHOW A WARMING
REBOUND SATURDAY, WITH SWLY DOWNSLOPE, PREFRONTAL COMPRESSION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES BOUNCING BACK. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT STILL NEAR RECORD
HIGHS WELL IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR ONE MORE DAY. SATURDAY
WILL CLEARLY BE THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEKEND; EVERYTHING CHANGES
SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD TROUGH CENTERED OVER MONTANA 6 PM SATURDAY, WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NORTH DAKOTA 6 AM SUNDAY, AND STRENGTHEN TO
A CLOSED CYCLONE NEAR 530 DM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL PUSH THE ASSOCIATED
INTENSE COLD FRONT THROUGH SW KS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY PROMISES A DRAMATIC RETURN TO WINTER COLD, WITH
INTENSE NORTH WINDS, AND CLEARLY A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY AFTERNOON, WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING ZERO. THE
CORE OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF SW
KS, BUT STILL WILL BE A MAJOR SHOCK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RECORD
WARMTH. NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY FROM THE NBM ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH, AND INCREASED TO THE 90%ILE OF THE NBM/STRONGER GUIDANCE
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. MODELS DEPICT AN
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY, WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 45
KTS, AND GUSTS OF THAT CALIBER (NEAR 55 MPH) ARE PROBABLE. GIVEN
HOW WINDS EASILY OVERACHIEVE IN SW KS, A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED.
REGARDING SNOW, LITTLE IF ANY IS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF
POSTFRONTAL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED BY ALL GUIDANCE SUNDAY,
ENHANCING LIFT AND KEEPING CLOUDS CONSIDERABLE. MOST SNOW THAT
FALLS WILL BE TIED TO OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE IN COLORADO NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE, BUT SOME FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT SUNDAY, AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE "WETTER" GUIDANCE.
PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHS STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN SW KS DURING THE COLD SEASON. LATEST
NBM PLACES CHANCE CATEGORY (30-40%) POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS/DUSTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY. AGAIN,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE NOT EXPECTED, WITH THE FOCUS
ON THE STRONG, MUCH COLDER NORTH WIND.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS, AND WIND
CHILLS NEAR ZERO FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A STRONG
1040 MB COLD HIGH OVER SW KS MIDDAY MONDAY, WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
RAPIDLY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY,
BACK ABOVE NORMAL, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE STUBBORNLY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE NEW YEAR. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ABOUT JANUARY 5, BUT THIS IS LITTLE MORE THAN
CONJECTURE, ON THE EDGE OF PREDICTABILITY AT 10 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC, VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SCATTERED CIRRUS, AND LIGHT
WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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