096
FXUS63 KDDC 051004
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 NORTH AND 90S SOUTH.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR T-STORMS (20-40%) ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT.
- VERY HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ELEVATED T-STORMS FORMED NORTH OF
DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY 3-4 AM. COOLER
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY BURNING
OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG I-70, WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE.
BY TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MOISTENING AT
LOW AND MID LEVELS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN OTHERS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 20-40% STORM CHANCES AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. OF COURSE, GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL LEVEL WIND COMPONENT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT PERSISTING OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THIS PATTERN; AND ANY STORMS COULD
DEVELOP INTO A LARGER CLUSTER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANY EARLY EVENING STORMS COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE
SURFACE BASED CAPE IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
AND STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE SUITES
ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT RAINS MAY BE. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
INDICATES VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (10-30%) OF .25" OR MORE OF
RAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. BUT OF COURSE,
AMOUNTS WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER IN ANY LOCALIZED T-STORMS.
A FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EVEN INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, MID LEVEL (700MB) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO
AROUND 15C; SO IT WILL TAKE FULL HEATING JUST TO GET ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED LATE DAY T-STORMS IN THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, SMALL STORM
CHANCES (5-15% AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION) ARE STILL WARRANTED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SATURDAY, WITH THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE RETREATING
WELL NORTH OF I-70. AS IS TYPICAL IN SUMMER ON THE HIGH PLAINS,
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS
AND TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP, LEADING TO DEEP INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDINGS AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY. THUS, SATURDAY WILL BE A
DRY AND HOT DAY, WITH READINGS 100+. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DRY AIR,
HEAT INDICES WILL BE AT OR LESS THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM 100-105 AND HEAT INDICES FROM 98 TO 105.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE AMPLITUDE
AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED VERY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE WOULD
BRING MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS, ALONG WITH SMALL T-STORM
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO VFR GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS LIFTS/SCATTERS OUT SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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