996
FXUS63 KDDC 091617
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO RECORD SETTING HEAT AGAIN TODAY; HIGH TEMPERATURES 105-110
FORECAST AREA WIDE
- LOW STORM CHANCE IN WESTERN COUNTIES; BUT GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING LEADING TO GRASSLAND FIRE POSSIBLE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA HAS NOT CHANGED AS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SIT AND MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND WITH EFFICIENT
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO
RECORD BREAKING HEAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED CWA-WIDE TO HIGHLIGHT WIDESPREAD 105-110 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HEAT INDICES ARE NOT THE
DRIVING FACTOR FOR THIS ISSUANCE, JUST THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURE. WE ARE ALLOWED THE DISCRETION, DESPITE HEAT INDICES
NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR, TO ISSUE HEAT HEADLINES AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. IT WAS DETERMINED GIVEN
THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF THE INTENSE HEAT, COMBINED WITH
CONSISTENT MESSAGING, THAT A HEADLINE WAS WARRANTED. HEAT
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO MITIGATE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THOSE DECISIONS WILL BE MADE ON A DAY TO DAY
BASIS.
SIMILARLY TO TODAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
DEVELOP. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW (10-20%), BUT AGAIN
FAVORING WEST AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE RISKS FROM ANY STORM
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS 50-60 MPH GIVEN AVERAGE SOUNDING DCAPES
AROUND 2,000 J/KG AGAIN. ANOTHER RISK WOULD BE THE LIGHTNING
INDUCED GRASSLAND FIRE POTENTIAL. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND
AIR TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING TRIPLE DIGITS, RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND WOULD BE LIMITED. GIVEN STRONG POTENTIAL WINDS IN AND
AROUND STORMS, IF A FIRE WERE TO START, IT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY.
SPC FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DOES OUTLINE A ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM RISK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD AS LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL REMAINS EVIDENT.
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE AND NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
WIDESPREAD 30-70% POPS EACH EVENING/NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE 80S BY LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MID/LATE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF KGCK AND KHYS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 20 TO 30KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT
MID TO LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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