455
FXUS63 KDDC 040616
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, GREATEST
CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
- NOT AS HOT TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK; HOTTER MID TO LATE WEEK
- NEAR DAILY CHANCE OF STORMS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
COMPLEX STORM SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KANSAS
GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF REMNANT OUTFLOWS AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. 06Z MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICT REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS
EXPECTED AND IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND
TRACK EASTWARD. THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY BE
STRONG ENOUGH, IT COULD REINFORCE THE PREEXISTING BOUNDARY AND
PUSH IT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. IF THIS IS TO OCCUR,
THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH CAN THIS BOUNDARY BE BROUGHT
BACK. EVEN IN RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR PAINT DIFFERING SCENARIOS.
THE 00Z HRRR STRUGGLED TO BRING THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH,
LEADING TO NO STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE MORE RECENT
03/04Z RUNS SHOWED THE BOUNDARY NOT GOING AS FAR SOUTH AND
BRINGS THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. OTHER CAMS LIKE THE 00Z
NAMNEST/RRFS ARE MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE OTHER TWO
SCENARIOS WITH THE WRF-ARW AND NSSL FARTHER SOUTH. NEEDLESS TO
SAY, THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY IS FLUID. SHOULD THE
BOUNDARY BE IN PLACE, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR STORMS IN OUR
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN ZONES. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE COMPRISED
OF LARGE CAPES AND INCREASED SHEAR, WITH SOME TURNING IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE,
WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY. A BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IF A SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO LATCH
ONTO THE BOUNDARY. STORMS WOULD THEN CONGEAL AND BECOME MORE OF
A DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT UPON THE LOCATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN BARBER COUNTY, BUT KEPT HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW CRITERIA
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR SOUTHERN ZONES, AND HEAT INDICES
100-104. HEAT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN DURING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL" TO END THE WEEK AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE THE RESURGENCE OF NEAR OR REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT, POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST NEARLY EVERY DAY
WITH VARYING LEVELS OF CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
BIGGEST CHANGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS UPDATE IS NOW THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, MAINLY AFTER 07Z.
LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF HYS
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED STORMS IN THE TAF TO
REFLECT THIS. THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD LARGELY BE STORM FREE
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW THEREFORE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR ANY SPECIFIC
TERMINAL FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA GIVEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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