835
FXUS63 KDDC 091700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER MOTHER'S DAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS.
- RAPID WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH 90S EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSION SENDING TEMPERATURES SOARING THROUGH THE 70S AND
80S. MOISTURE WAS VERY LIMITED, WITH DEWPOINTS RESTRICTED TO
THE 40S, AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
ACROSS SW KS. DESPITE THIS POOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT,
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 4 PM ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES,
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUFFICIENT FOR
INITIATION. ANY STORMS WILL CLEARLY BE HIGH-BASED WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES, WITH ASSOCIATED VIRGA PRODUCING
STRONG/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL
5% WIND PROBABILITY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, BUT HIGH END/ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER.
COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH SW KS THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY IN THE EVENING, BUT MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES
FROM COLORADO. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS THINKING, AND THE
12Z ARW SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE RAIN MAY FALL SOUTHWEST OF DODGE
CITY, WHERE IT IS MOST NEEDED IN THE ONGOING SEVERE/EXTREME
DROUGHT. DID INCREASE POPS MORE SOLIDLY INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY, BUT FURTHER INCREASES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. 12Z NAM FORECASTS ELEVATED CAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG OVERNIGHT, SO SOME THUNDER IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ELEVATED HAIL POTENTIAL.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER FOR MOTHER'S DAY, BOTH AS A FUNCTION
OF A SHARP REDUCTION IN 850 TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO AS A RESULT
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SOME OF THE
MORNING. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO THE 60S. THAT SAID, 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE IS 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NBM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
SUNRISE MONDAY.
ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMING MONDAY AFTERNOON, UNDER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 590 DM MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS. STRONG HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES AND THE RETURN OF
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS WILL EASILY ALLOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH LOWER TO MID 90S
EXPECTED SOUTH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, SUCH AS
THE FAVORED RED HILLS, WILL APPROACH 100 TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IF PREFRONTAL DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION PERSISTS MUCH OF
THE DAY.
STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO 7 PM TUESDAY, WILL FLATTEN
AND SPREAD EAST INTO TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A RELATED
STRONG RIDGE AXIS PHASING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TO HOT AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT, WITH NBM SUGGESTING THE HOTTEST
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WILL ALSO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FIRE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE ENTIRE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK IS DRY FOR ALL OF SW KS, AND THE ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND. HOT WINDY
AFTERNOONS SUCH AS THURSDAY WILL ONLY MAGNIFY THIS PROCESS.
WE ARE ENTERING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WETTEST TIME OF YEAR FOR
SW KS, AND TO SEE DRY STRETCHES, SUCH AS THAT FORECASTED INTO
MID MAY, IS CONCERNING REGARDING DROUGHT MANAGEMENT CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUN, WITH ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 22-25 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM NEAR HYS TO EAST OF DDC AFTER 21Z SAT; KEPT THE
TAFS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH ONLY A VCTS/CB MENTION
AT HYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AIRPORTS 00-06Z SUN,
WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS.
MODELS AGREE SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP 06-12Z SUN, WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS AT GCK/DDC/LBL.
AREAS OF POST FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS ARE ALSO FORECAST EARLY
SUNDAY, AND INCLUDED THESE CEILINGS IN THE TAFS AROUND 09Z SUN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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