963
FXUS63 KDDC 020525
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY FOGGY NIGHT TONIGHT, FAVORING AREAS
EAST OF US-83.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF A SURFACE LOW.
- ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FAVORING
OUR WESTERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A RATHER MUTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN ATOP THE CONUS,
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A
MODEST TROUGH UPSTREAM NEAR THE NORTHERN CA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EXPANDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SUPPORTING
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE A
CLOUDY, AND PERHAPS FOGGY NIGHT FAVORING AREAS EAST OF US-83,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ALL PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
EAST. THAT SAID, THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP OUR AREA
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
DAYTIME MONDAY, OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US-283 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROPAGATES EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE, LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO WILL RESULT IN WINDS FLIPPING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, AND A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL MATERIALIZE WITH UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES DECREASING TO THE MID/UPPER 40S FROM HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES BRING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
TRACKING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. THIS TRAJECTORY
WOULD KEEP SOUTHWEST KS WITHIN THE COOL AIRMASS, ALTHOUGH ANY
WOBBLE TO THE NORTH WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
ENTERING THE WARM SECTOR. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING
OUR EASTERN ZONES, BUT QPF WILL BE LIMITED AS NBM PROBABILITY OF
0.1" OR GREATER IS 35% OR LESS FOR ALL AREAS. BEYOND TUESDAY
NIGHT, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MUCH STRONGER WAVE WILL PUSH EAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, BUT
PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE RENDERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MVFR STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO OUR
AREA AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING HYS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR TO HYS,
DDC, AND GCK. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES
DROP AMIDST THE WEAK NORTHEAST MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW, RESULTING IN
VIS DROPPING TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. STRATUS WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON OURS AT GCK AND LBL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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