186
FXUS63 KDDC 092215
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- MORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND MILD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF A FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
- THERE STILL MAY BE UNSETTLED WEATHER MIDWEEK, HOWEVER, THE
BRUNT OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAY BE KEPT ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES OR EVEN PERHAPS FARTHER EAST OF THE CWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A DEEPENING HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THESE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TONIGHT, WITH VALUES ONLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE WILL BE SOLIDLY
IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD
WITH VALUES IN THE 50S AND 60S. NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO THE NET RESULT OF A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MORE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. THE NET RESULT
IS A VERY WARM DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MILD LOWS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. EVEN WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
WINDS, SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE
MODERATE SIDE.
ON TUESDAY, A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS UTAH DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DOES
SPELL OUT THE CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES MAY
INCREASE IN THE 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, IF THE FRONT MAKES
IT NORTH ACROSS KANSAS. BULK SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELLS AS WELL. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE FRONT WILL
END UP, BECAUSE IF THE FRONT DOES SURGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, THE BRUNT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY MAY
END UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AS FAR AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MIDWEEK, THERE MAY BE A
STARTING TREND IN THE ENSEMBLES TO KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS TO EITHER KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES OR EVEN POSSIBLY OUT OF THE FA.
THIS IS A SECOND THING TO WATCH AND TO LOOK IF THIS DRIER TREND
IN THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO HOLD TRUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 12-15 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER 06Z, A 40-45 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT AROUND
45 KTS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. ONCE THE WIND SHEAR RELAXES, SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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