851
FXUS63 KDDC 221030
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
530 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL PASS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN BY ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS
NEXT MONDAY AND TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT; BUT RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SMALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A PLUME OF WARM AIR WILL MOVE DOWNSLOPE, RESULTING IN
WARM AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 80S TODAY. THE WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BE ON THE LOWER TERRAIN
TOWNS SUCH AS MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT WHERE AIR HAS MOVED
DOWNSLOPE AND WARMED THE MOST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST (WARMEST AT
MEDICINE LODGE).
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DOWN SLOPE WARMING SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE WARMER READINGS ONCE AGAIN
AT PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE (UPPER 80S), WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON HIGHER TERRAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES (NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES) ARE PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, WITH
WARMEST READINGS AT MEDICINE LODGE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
COOLEST MORNING WILL BE SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S (WEST CENTRAL KANSAS) AND LOWER TO MID 40S (SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS). HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST SO THAT
SATURDAY WILL STILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE
TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND THEN
80S MONDAY. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MONDAY, EXPECT INTENSE LEE TROUGHING AND STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO PERHAPS 50 MPH. AS THIS
TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE PLAINS, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE AROUND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH FRONTAL TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. A FASTER FRONT WOULD RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 60S/70S) FOR TUESDAY. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN PATTERN IS COOLER WHILE THE CMCE AND GEFS ARE
WARMER (HIGHS IN THE 80S); AND WE HAVE NO PREFERENCE YET AS TO
WHICH MAY BE CORRECT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARE LOW GIVEN THAT DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE AND GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED NORTH OF KANSAS AND STRONG DRY SLOT THAT
PASSES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PROBABILISTICALLY, THE CMCE AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ONLY SHOW 10-20% CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN
.1" OF RAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME,
WITH BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN A MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEST WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST TODAY AT 8 TO 12 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z, RESULTING IN A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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