428
FXUS63 KDDC 081506
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1006 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY,
BEFORE MAINLY DRY WEATHER RESUMES SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED; BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500MB ALONG WITH THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
T-STORMS THIS EVENING. DESPITE MARGINAL CAPE VALUES OF 1000
J/KG OR LESS, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -18C. ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS KANSAS ON THURSDAY; AND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE SO THAT SMALL CHANCES OF T-STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS PUSH THE FRONT
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE--MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE
CITY.
BY SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
ORGANIZING ALONG THE WEST COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
BY THIS TIME ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE POOR,
RESULTING IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EASTWARD. FOR THE
COMBINED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
SHOWS HIGH CHANCES FOR .25" OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
(70-80%), WITH LOWER CHANCES OF 50% OR LESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. BUT WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE SPOTTY AND HIGHLY VARIABLE.
SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE FIRST
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST. THE MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM, WITH THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND POINTS SOUTH. SEVERE
T-STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FROM PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AND
POINTS EAST, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. COOLER AIR IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-30 KTS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS, FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTER 21Z WED. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM HYS TO GCK BY 00Z THU, AND
ALONG A DRYLINE NEAR LBL. CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING AN AIRPORT DIRECTLY ARE LOW, BUT THERE WAS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO INCLUDE A VCTS/CB MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TREND NELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT HYS THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO THE AIRPORTS THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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