509
FXUS63 KDDC 251732
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FURTHER EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
- SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS OF NOW THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTERACTING
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
REFLECTING ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (+30 KNOTS) WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE OBSERVED (+1000 J/KG). THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
IS FAVORED EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 WITH THE BEST CHANCE EVEN FURTHER
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INTO WICHITA'S AREA THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, DRIVEN BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. TORNADO RISK REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE
DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
POOLS INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW POCKETS OF DRIZZLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
TOMORROW, A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS FOR SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION: MLCAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2000-3000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT, AND STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY SUPPORTING ROTATION. ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL (2+
INCHES), DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS (60+ MPH GUSTS), AND A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN
MATURE. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN—SOME
GUIDANCE DEPICTS LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS TRAVERSING THE AREA,
WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST MORE LINEAR OR CLUSTERED MODES. REGARDLESS,
THE THREAT LEVEL REPRESENTS THE HIGHEST SEVERE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AS OF NOW THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD
SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOW 80S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MODELS THEN SUGGEST A SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN LATE WEEK. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S NORTH TO UPPER
70S SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 60S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AROUND THE HYS TERMINAL WHERE THEY MAY HANG AROUND
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AROUND THE HYS TERMINAL WHERE THIS COLD FRONT
ISN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TONIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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