057
FXUS63 KDDC 070514
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY
283 THIS AFTERNOON
- A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE DRY LINE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ARE
STRUGGLING TO ROTATE AND MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. THIS MAY BE THE
RESULT OF A BACKING WIND PROFILE AT MID LEVELS THAT CAUSES AN
UNFAVORABLE HODOGRAPH. THE SHEAR PROFILE IMPROVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE IN BARBER
COUNTY WHERE THERE IS LESS MID LEVEL BACKING. THE STORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM WILL HAVE STRONGER 0-1
KM SRH UP TO 150-200 M2/S2, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DRYLINE
HAS SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE 60F WITH SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FUNNELING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE. CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOVE 30
KNOTS WILL SUPPORT ANY STORM THAT FORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.
HAIL AROUND 2 INCHES AND WINDS OVER 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
A LINE OF STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
AND SHOULD MAKE IT OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS
FARTHER SOUTH WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. LOW
LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF A TORNADO TO FORM. STORMS WILL THEN TREK NORTHEAST AND INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE OUT OF THE DDC. IN
ADDITION TO THE STORMS, LOW RH AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
FELT BEHIND THE DRYLINE. A RED FLAG IS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT OF THIS
INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER. SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE STORMS
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW, SHIFTING TO
MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW RHS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. CURRENTLY A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WEST OF THIS AREA AND WILL PROBABLY BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AFTER THIS INITIAL WARNING IS
EXPIRED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID
40S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW DUE TO THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WITH AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TOMORROW
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
TO LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
A QUIET PATTERN EMERGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. BUT AS OF NOW, NO PRECIPITATION IS
DEPICTED BY THE NBM. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH FRIDAY THEN UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH A FEW LOW
50S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2024
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY AFTER
SUNRISE, TO THE 20 TO 26 KNOT SUSTAINED RANGE – AND STRONGEST
GUSTS AROUND GCK AT 35 KNOTS. THE AREA IS BEHIND AN EXITING
WEATHER SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THAT HAS USHERED IN DRIER AIR AND AS A
RESULT THERE WON’T BE ANY IMPACTS FORM CEILINGS OR SURFACE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS – AT LEAST DURING THIS TAF. THERE WILL
BE SOME CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF AS A WEAK FRONT COMES IN LATE TONIGHT, HOWEVER ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE VFR CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURES – DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRACES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2024
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH
OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE
AREA HASN’T BEEN CLEARED OF DRY FUELS FOR THE SEASON, HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE GREENNESS WITHING THE
HIGHLIGHTED REGION. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS EXPANDED FOR ALL
AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 23 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A AREAL
MATCHING FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY. AREAS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD ARE CONSIDERED TOO GREEN TO
CONTINUE WARNINGS FOR THE TIME BEING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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