739
FXUS63 KDDC 301629
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. MAIN RISK WILL BE HAIL 2 OR
LARGER AND WIND GUSTS 70 MPH OR GREATER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
- ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE ALMOST A DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WPC FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A 500 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS SATURDAY
MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD NEBRASKA AS A WARM FRONT. A DRYLINE WILL ALSO SHARPEN AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG EACH
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, AFTERNOON HEATING/INCREASE
INSTABILITY, AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG EACH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES. LARGE HAIL (>2 INCHES) AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS OF
GREATER THAN 70 MPH CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY HAZARDS
GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE DAY BASED ON
THE FORECAST LOW LCLS, FORECAST AREA OF BETTER 2-5KM UPDRAFT
HELICITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
LATEST CAMS EARLIER TODAY SEEM TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 21Z TODAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19Z ALONG
THE DRY LINE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR
DODGE CITY. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THAT EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG
THE DRY LINE THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND. AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WARM FRONT THE RISK OF
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE GIVEN THE IMPROVING SHEAR DEVELOPMENT
IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THE LATEST MODELS. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE STORMS EXITING THE DODGE CITY
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 9PM AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT OVERNIGHT, BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WILL LARGELY OFFSET THIS COOLING POTENTIAL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, SUNDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S.
ON MONDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN MONITOR A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST, ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, RESULTING IN FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS EVENING (SATURDAY).
HOWEVER, ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
LIFT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK JUST EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS. AS A RESULT
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS AS A
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS POSITION WILL
ALSO ALLOW ANY UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THIS ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL
LIFT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY, THIS SETUP
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DAILY RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. BASED ON THE EXPECTED NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
NEXT WEEK COMBINED WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE RISK LOCALIZE
WATER ISSUES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE WPC HAS ALREADY ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MEANS THERE IS A 5% TO 10% CHANCE
THAT UPCOMING RAINFALL FROM REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXCEED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A DRYLINE NEAR OR EAST OF DODGE CITY WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 00Z SUNDAY. HAYS HAS A
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM RISK FROM 21Z TODAY TO 02Z SUNDAY BECAUSE IT
WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS IN HAYS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS ALONG WITH
HAIL. ONLY THE STRONG WINDS THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE 18Z
TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL VERSES HAIL. GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL, LOCATED WEST OF
THE DRYLINE, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY CONVECTION. CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT BASED
ON BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY, DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BRIEF 1–3
HOUR PERIOD OF STRATUS OR FOG.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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