142
FXUS63 KDDC 281045
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN CONTINUES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM 1-9 PM CDT. MORE
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEK
- ENSEMBLES HAVE SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK AT
10-20%; UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THEM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ALOFT, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AS
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW EXCLUDING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. NEARER TO THE SURFACE, A
LOW-LEVEL LOW IS IN PLACE NEAR THE COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDER. ANY
CONVECTION DUE TO THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SOME WEAK CONVECTION REACHING SW KANSAS, BUT
THE TRENDS HAVE LED TOWARDS NEAR ZERO CHANCES AND THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT.
THE PATTERN THAT SATURDAY STARTED OF STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER THAN
SATURDAYS WITH HIGHS FOR NEARLY ALL OF SW KANSAS FORECAST AROUND 100-
105 DEGREES. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-25 MPH WILL PERSIST
AND BRING MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS CONTINUES TO TREAD THE LINE
BETWEEN A MODERATE AND MAJOR HEAT RISK. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN
INCLUDING COOLING AND HYDRATION BREAKS; THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES. AS A RESULT OF THE HIGH HEAT AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 105-108 IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES, STAFFORD PRATT AND
BARBER COUNTIES ARE IN A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. THIS GOES FROM
1-9 PM CDT.
DESPITE SUNDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY, THE WEEK AHEAD WILL ALSO BE
HOT ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IF THE HIGHS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY HOT. MORE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TOWARDS THE MID-90S; WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. DESPITE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING A
LITTLE COOLER AND FARTHER FROM HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE CONTINUED
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL STILL POSE A HEAT RISK THREAT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE VERY DRY OUT WEST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS AROUND 10-15%. WITH THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS MENTIONED, FIRE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE NON-ZERO. HOWEVER, THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THE LAST FEW DAYS QUELL MOST OF THE RISK.
LONG RANGED ENSEMBLES HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-20% CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND ENDS. NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL WARM
BACK UP CLOSER TO WHERE SUNDAY WAS AT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100-105.
MONITOR FOR FUTURE HEAT RELATED HEADLINES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN AVIATION WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FROM INITIAL
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT VARIATIONS
IN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS (MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
30+ KNOT GUSTS) WITH WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO A CONTINUED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. GIVEN THE HOT AIR MASS NOW IN
PLACE, FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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