949
FXUS63 KDDC 011654
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARDS THROUGH SUNSET WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 70
MPH OR HIGHER AND HAIL 2 INCHES OR LARGER. AFTER SUNSET THE
HAIL THREAT WILL DECREASE BUT STRONG DAMAGING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. HEAVY RAINFALL,
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS BOTH DAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
RISKS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING 0-1 KM FRONTOGENESIS AND AN AXIS OF LATE DAY
INSTABILITY ALONG/NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AFTER 4 PM MDT/5 PM CDT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER EAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAY STRUGGLE GIVEN THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE
AFTER 7PM THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS WHAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WILL EXTEND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE 2 INCH HAIL.
AFTER SUNSET IT APPEARS THAT THE HAIL RISK WILL DIMINISH AND THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THESE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHEST EXTEND NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
GARDEN CITY AND SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY TO PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE.
AGAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS TONIGHT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS +70
MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.5 INCH BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY.
ON TUESDAY ANY LINGERING CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL
END BY NOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
ONGOING MOISTURE UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY, GIVEN BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF A SURFACE TO 500 MB HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOW AT THIS TIME, THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE CAMS ARE CLUSTERING THIS BOUNDARY
BETWEEN LIBERAL AND GARDEN CITY LATE DAY. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR
(WEAKER THAN TODAY), A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING. MAIN HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE GIVEN PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES, WHICH
IS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS.
ON WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL, THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED. SLOWER
STORM MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO MEAN 700-500 MB WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES MAY BE INCREASING IN SOME
AREAS GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
REPEATED CELL TRAINING OVER IDENTICAL CORRIDORS INTRODUCES
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AFTER 21Z TODAY
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR AND WEST OF
THE GARDEN CITY AREA. TONIGHT CEILINGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE GARDEN CITY AREA THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE DODGE
CITY AND HAYS AREAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TUESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY AS THEY
PASS. PRIOR TO THE STORMS, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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