473
FXUS63 KDDC 051628
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND NOTICEABLY HOTTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGING IN THE EAST
HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY; THE TROUGH IN THE WEST HAS BECOME A CUT-OFF
LOW THAT SUNK INTO MEXICO. AS A RESULT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS
BECOME ZONAL. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A REGION OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO COLORADO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LINKING
THEM. IT IS FORECAST THIS WILL SLOWLY DESCEND INTO NW KANSAS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE, THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WEATHER STORMS
WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION. THE LOCATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
WITH AN AXIS FROM HAMILTON TO TREGO COUNTIES. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS
THE NAMNST, HAVE THIS LINE TRANSPOSED NORTHWARD LEAVING THE CWA
NEARLY ENTIRELY DRY. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE PAIRED
WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (25 KTS). WITHOUT ENOUGH SHEAR,
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW. WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS,
SURFACE TO 3KM LAPSE RATES ARE VERY HIGH AT 10+. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WIND THREAT DOWN. DESPITE THE
CONDITIONAL NATURE, THERE REMAINS A SLIM OPPORTUNITY FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERWHELMINGLY LIKELY
OUTCOME IS A FEW ISOLATED BENIGN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DISSIPATE
QUICKLY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS THE MOST FAVORABLE IN NORTHEAST ELLIS, SO
IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF TO ACCESS THE BETTER
CONDITIONS A SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
IN THE 90S FOR ALL OF SW KANSAS TODAY.
FOR SATURDAY'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE SIMILARLY DECREASE VIA
MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOW THE POPS ARE NEARLY ALL
SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AS THE ASSOCIATED MCV IS NOW PLACED
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE KS/OK BORDER. AREAS IN THE CWA MAY SEE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ON AND OFF STORMS WELL INTO SUNDAY IN THE
WETTEST SOLUTIONS. DESPITE SOLID PWATS OF >1.5", ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0.25-0.5" AND IS BACK VIA ENSEMBLES. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE MOISTURE PRESENT.
DESPITE THIS, IF A STORM LINGERS OVER A SPECIFIC AREA, MARGINAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
SUNDAY BEGINS A WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A COOLER
SATURDAY IN 80S. SUNDAY WILL SEE FAR SW KANSAS PUSH TOWARDS 100
DEGREES. BY MONDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE MUCH OF KS/OK BORDER APPROACH OR
EVEN SURPASS THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. BY TUESDAY, NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CWA WILL HAVE A >40% CHANCE TO SEE 100+ DEGREES WITH THE HEAT
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO ON TUESDAY, THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA HAS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, BUT SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS THAT THE EVENT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSER IN ORDER TO GIVE AN
ACCURATE AND DETAIL FORECAST. OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A QUIET WEEK WITH THE HEAT HEADLINING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH PRIMARILY A SOUTH WIND AT AROUND 15 KTS IS EXPECTED.
AROUND 22Z, SOME VERY HIGH CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS BUT NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AROUND 2Z, ENSEMBLES
HAVE AROUND A 5-10% CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING NEAR THE HYS TERMINAL.
HOWEVER WITH THE LOW CHANCES AND DECREASING TRENDS IT WAS EXCLUDED
FROM THE TAF.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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