968
FXUS63 KDDC 271038
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR LATE AUGUST
NORMALS, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
- A HEATING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
MIDNIGHT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE KANSAS BORDER. MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG, AND BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT
30 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. 00Z ARW SUPPORTS THIS NOTION, BUT KEEPS MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF US 83. NBM SEEMED TOO WET, TOO FAR
EAST AND TRIMMED THE POP GRIDS DOWN THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVERNIGHT IN THIS SUMMER NWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN. SOME MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM
COVERAGE, SOME MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS IN
COLORADO, AND SOME FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN WESTERN ZONES, SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE. A HEALTHY MCS IS POSSIBLE WEST OF US 83 BY 4 AM
SHOULD THE 00Z ARW AND OTHER CAMS COME TO FRUITION.
THE STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
SW KS THURSDAY, OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE AUGUST NORMALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS, POOR MIXING AND
LACK OF DOWNSLOPE, THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A SMALL BREAK FROM
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT. THE FORECASTED HIGH OF 90 AT DDC WOULD BE
THE COOLEST MAX TEMPERATURE SINCE AUGUST 5TH.
00Z ARW SUGGESTS ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA BY 7 PM THURSDAY, THEN SINK DUE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, EAST OF US 283, THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE ARW SOLUTION HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM 00Z
NAM, BUT AGAIN MODEL AGREEMENT IS MEDIOCRE AT BEST, WITH VARIOUS
WEAK, HARD TO TIME VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE ARW SOLUTION WOULD REQUIRE
HIGH POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE NBM,
INCORPORATING THOSE DRIER SOLUTIONS, ONLY INCLUDED MINIMAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT WITH SUMMER NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
FORECASTING CONTINUES.
A STRONG HEATING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED SOUTH WINDS AND IMPROVED MIXING
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY IS APPROPRIATE, AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
FROM THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 COMMON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE UPPER
HIGH OVER TEXAS BY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL SPREAD SWLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THE RETURN OF LEE TROUGHING. AS
SUCH, THE KANSAS WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS
AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED FOR MOST ZONES. AS USUAL, THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
BARBER COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE HEAT INDEX WILL
BE NEAR 105 FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY'S
FORECAST IS DRY, BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS MORE FAVORABLE SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE ENDING
BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING AND WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 KTS OR LESS. A FEW
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A LINE OF STORMS COMING OUT OF NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING THAT COULD AFFECT HYS
BETWEEN 03-06Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THAT HAPPENING IS LESS
THAN 20% AT THIS POINT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
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