720
FXUS63 KDDC 290703
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING STORMS AND PATCHY FOG
- ANOTHER CHANCE (AS HIGH AS 80% ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER)
TONIGHT
- CONTINUED STORMY OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE PWAT ON YESTERDAY'S
KDDC RAOB WAS 1.43". SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S
FOR THE FA. AS A RESULT, SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. IN ADDITION, WATCHING SOME STORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND IT MAY RAIN FOR A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
IF THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVES. OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF EVENING STORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
(~80%) FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. POPS GET GRADUALLY
SMALLER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS THE FA. THERE IS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, SO CANNOT RULED OUT A STRONG STORM THREAT THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL REPORTS, AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMY WEATHER RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NBM POPS LOOK
FINE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOW 80S CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY EITHER.
BY MONDAY, WE ENTER A DRIER NW TO N UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A DRIER FORECAST. THIS DOES COME INTO CONFLICT
THROUGH WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS. SOME OF THIS DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL MONITOR FOR A CLEAR TRENDS IN FUTURE RUNS. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH MAINLY 70S (A FEW 80S POSSIBLE) AND
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THEREFORE, CIGS
AND VIS WILL BE IFR THROUGH A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND PATCHY
FG/BR AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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