740  
FXUS63 KDDC 042235  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
435 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS  
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
BETWEEN A STRONG CUT-OFF RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A STRONG  
CUT-OFF LOW OVER CANADA. AS THESE FEATURES REMAIN FIXED IN PLACE  
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART FOR  
GREENER PASTURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AND A WEAK LEE CYCLONE  
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS  
SOUTHERLY AS A RESULT, BUT NOT EXCEED 10 MPH GIVEN A MOSTLY  
INCONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.  
OVERNIGHT WILL BE EQUALLY QUIET, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING  
SKIES AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.  
 
MONDAY MORNING, THE INFLUENCE OF THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW IN  
CANADA WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT IS FORCED THROUGH  
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WEAK POST-FRONTAL CAA WILL ONLY HALT THE  
WARMING TREND FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE KS/OK  
BORDER. COLD AIR FINALLY PUSHES EQUATORWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KS  
MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TREND NORTHEASTERLY, ALLOWING  
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-WESTERLY AT THE  
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES  
ONSHORE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PROGRESS FOR THIS FEATURE WILL  
BE SLOW AT FIRST, AND TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY FOR  
SOUTHWEST KS WITH LIGHT WINDS, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN  
THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL  
IMPULSE WILL PUSH FORWARD, INDUCING LEE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE IN  
SOUTHEAST CO OR ADJACENT NORTHEAST NM. MASS RESPONSE WILL RESULT  
IN WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND ALLOWING AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE AS WELL DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL BEGIN EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HOWEVER MEDIUM  
RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR, WITH THE  
ECMWF SHOWING THE MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS ALSO THROWS INTO  
QUESTION HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION SOUTHWEST KS CAN SQUEEZE OUT OF  
THIS SYSTEM, AS A SLOWER WAVE EJECTION WOULD TRANSLATE TO MORE  
QPF. GIVEN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE  
WAVE TODAY, AND THE CONTINUED STRONG EPS SUPPORT, CONFIDENCE IS  
GROWING PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN  
INITIALLY THOUGHT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL PERSISTS, LATEST NBM  
POPS APPROACHING THE LIKELY CATEGORY (55-74%) OVER THE EASTERN  
ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15-24%) EXTENDING TO THE KS/CO  
BORDER WERE ACCEPTED. THAT SAID, QPF TOTALS WILL STILL ASSUREDLY  
BE PALTRY, WITH MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO THE MOST LIKELY  
SCENARIO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
DAYTIME THURSDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY ON THE  
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, BUT RELAX FAIRLY  
QUICKLY AS IT PULLS AWAY. THIS LATEST SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL NOT  
AMOUNT TO MUCH, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL REACH  
THE MID 40S/LOW 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF  
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FOSTERING IDEAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S. FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO  
DIVERGE REGARDING KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES, RENDERING PREDICTABILITY  
LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 435 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF  
CIRRUS. CURRENT CIRRUS OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT DURING  
THE DAY MONDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS NEAR P28  
OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY STRATUS TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST  
OF THE AIRPORTS. LIGHT WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
12Z MON. AFTER 18Z MON, A WEAK DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING  
A NELY WIND SHIFT, WITH NE WINDS GUSTING MODESTLY 20-23 KTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 31 55 23 47 / 0 0 0 0  
GCK 30 55 23 46 / 0 0 0 0  
EHA 37 63 26 53 / 0 0 0 0  
LBL 32 62 23 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HYS 26 47 19 43 / 0 0 0 0  
P28 34 57 28 47 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER  
LONG TERM...SPRINGER  
AVIATION...TURNER  
 
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