854
FXUS63 KDDC 241523
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1023 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FROM THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, ON SATURATED SOILS, MAY
LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN RISK.
- BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS, RAIN CHANCES ENDING,
AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SW KANSAS AS SYNOPTICALLY A LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER-CONUS AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESIDES ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. NEARER TO THE SURFACE,
ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTION THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THE
SPC'S SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING INTO THE CWA ALL THREE DAYS. PLEASANT
HIGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THESE FEW DAYS, PRIMARILY AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THE FORECAST DIFFICULTIES OF THIS MORNING WERE A RESULT OF
TREMENDOUS CAM DISAGREEMENT. UNFORTUNATELY, EVEN NOW A FEW HOURS
OUT FROM THE EXPECTED POTENTIAL CONVECTION THERE IS LITTLE
CLARITY. SOME CAMS LIKE THE WRF HAVE CONVECTION ALONG EVERYWHERE
WITH A SEMBLANCE OF CAPE. OTHER CAMS HAVE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BOTH MOVE
TOWARDS THE CWA. THE HRRR WAS THE BEST (ALBEIT POOR) AT HANDLING
THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND HAS STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE
CWA BY MID-MORNING. ALONG WITH THE COVERAGE DIFFICULTY, THE
OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE CURRENT
SUPERCELLS IN COLORADO ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GIANT HAIL,
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO SW KANSAS AT THOSE
SIZES (2-3 INCHES). THE SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO BE A
BALANCE OF HAIL AND WIND THREAT WITH THE SPC EVEN LEAVING IN A
2% TORNADO RISK. THE PHASE OF THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IF THE CURRENT COLORADO CONVECTION BECOMES MORE LINEAR
IN NATURE BEFORE ENTERING KANSAS AS THE LATEST CAM RUNS
SUGGEST. NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. ADDITIONALLY IT HAS POCKETS
OF SRH REACHING 250 FROM SURFACE TO 1 KM. ALL THIS TO SAY THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS. THIS INCLUDES FLOODING POTENTIAL, WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.5-2", LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITH
TRAININGS STORMS.
LITTLE RESPITE IS GIVEN BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL STORMS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. MORE CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO INITIATE IN COLORADO BEFORE ORGANIZING AND MOVING
INTO KANSAS. CAMS ARE MUCH LESS EXCITED ABOUT THIS SET OF SEVERE
PROSPECTS WITH IT PRIMARILY BEING A WIND THREAT THAT IS
WEAKENING. SOME SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MORE DETAILS WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL
AFTER TONIGHTS CONVECTION AND MASSIVE UNCERTAINTY.
FINALLY CAMS HAVE MORE CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INITIALLY
BEING MORE ISOLATED AND SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS, PARTICULARLY THE STRONGEST OF
THEM, WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY AROUND BARBER COUNTY, SHOULD BE VIGILANT IN
MONITORING THE WEATHER FOR CHANGES.
AFTER THURSDAY, SW KANSAS IS FORECAST TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGE WITH THE TRANSPORT OF HOT AND DRY AIR. SATURDAY
IS IMMEDIATELY FORECAST TO BE HOTTER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
INTO THE 100S ESPECIALLY IN FAR SW KANSAS. THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THESE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH
NEARLY ALL OF SW KANSAS AT OR ABOVE A 60% CHANCE TO SEE TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS DURING THIS STRETCH VIA ENSEMBLES. SUNDAY EVENING
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
SOUTH WIND OF 20-25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF
10-20%. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE DAYS PRIOR WILL HOPEFULLY QUELL
MUCH OF THAT FIRE WEATHER RISK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THU, WITH
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING GCK/HYS DURING THE 03-06Z THU TIME
FRAME, REACHING DDC 06-09Z THU. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND OUTFLOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. INCLUDED CONVECTIVE
TEMPO GROUPS WHEN AND WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
IS HIGHEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR STRATUS WILL RETURN TO
HYS/DDC BEHIND THE STORMS, BY 12Z THU. CONFIDENCE ON STORM
COVERAGE AND STRATUS IS MUCH LESS AT LBL, SO KEPT THE LBL TAF
MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC OVERALL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TURNER
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