748
FXUS63 KDDC 201050
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
450 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
..UPDATED AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR TODAY WILL BRING SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY AS MILDER AIR COMES IN FROM EASTERN COLORADO.
HIGHS SHOULD STAY COLDEST IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WITH MID 40S. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC
ZONE DEVELOP AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WITH LOW 20S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE WARM
FRONT MOVES IN WE SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN THE UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
MONDAY WILL PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING CHALLENGES AS A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. GFS AND EURO BOTH THINK THE
SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALLOW THE MILDER AIR
TO REACH FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NAM BRINGS IN
THE COLDEST AIR QUICKEST WHILE THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWER. TENDED
TO AGREE WITH THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR LIKE THE NAM.
BEST CHANCE FOR THE PRECIP (WHICH WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW) WILL BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL GUST INTO THE 40-50 MPH
RANGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
GENERAL PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY CONTINUES US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW SET
UP WITH PERIODIC COLD FRONTS AND SMALL CHANCES OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE WAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND
AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.
MILDER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD
CEILINGS WILL START TO FALL FOR ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE AROUND HYS THAT COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM
06Z-10Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 53 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 49 25 48 27 / 0 0 0 20
EHA 59 26 68 28 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 57 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 44 22 39 28 / 0 0 0 20
P28 50 26 52 38 / 0 0 0 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TATRO
LONG TERM...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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