953
FXUS63 KDDC 041013
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
513 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, AND MEANDER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL
RESULT: COOLEST I-70 TO HOTTEST NEAR OKLAHOMA.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THIS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR AUGUST NORMALS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE HEAT REBUILDS QUICKLY THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD 100S LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LATE TONIGHT, A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, TIED TO A
COLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE DISORGANIZATION IS LARGELY DUE TO LACK OF
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 500 J/KG OR LESS). THIS
WILL BE A CONTINUING THEME ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS REASON, THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS FRONT, AND EVEN THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4" OR HIGHER ARE DWINDLING IN THE FORECAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, PERHAPS INCLUDING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES, GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF HIGHWAY 183 LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT LATER ON TODAY WILL WILL PROVIDE A NICE RESPITE FROM
THE HEAT, IF ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL LIKELY TRACK CLOSER TO THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE GIVEN THE FAIRLY
STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER (HIGHS
OF AROUND 80 AT SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY). ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONT, UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN, GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A MEADE TO LARNED LINE -- ESPECIALLY DOWN IN THE
TYPICALLY HOT RED HILLS REGION.
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY, AND
AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS AROUND OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE (MAINLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES). NBM RANGES 82 WAKEENEY TO 101 MEDICINE
LODGE WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ADVANCING SLOWLY NORTH INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
IF THE FRONT BISECTS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST, WE WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY --
AGAIN MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER CLOSER TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AGAIN,
FAVORING ANOTHER 3+ DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN
THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS
OF THE DDC CWA 100+ HIGHS BEGINNING SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER END HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL (90TH PERCENTILE NBM)
SHOWS SOME 105-106F HIGHS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND ALSO UP TOWARD HAYS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID/LATE MORNING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING. NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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