053  
FXUS63 KDDC 260537  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1237 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
   
..UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD AS  
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, AND FURTHER  
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY  
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, A LACK  
OF INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER PRECIP  
CHANCES. A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLIES  
STRENGTHEN, DRAWING WARMER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD HIGHS  
IN THE 60S(F) ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES  
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW REINFORCES A  
MILDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY AROUND  
THE UPPER 40S(F) TO THE LOWER 50S(F).  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 70S AND 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW  
CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND SE COLORADO. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEW POINTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE  
LOW TO MID 50S. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS FORMING PRIMARILY IN  
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE CAP WEAKENS BUT FOR THE  
MOST PART WITH A STRONG CAP THERE SHOULDN'T BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT.  
 
THURSDAY HAS A SIMILAR SETUP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM  
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO  
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE  
EAST HOWEVER CONVECTION CHANCES ARE STILL LOW DUE TO A STRONG CAP.  
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORM BY EVENING IN THE FAR EAST AS  
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO COME IN WITH A  
POSSIBLE WEAKENED CAP AROUND PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE.  
 
FRIDAY BOTH LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING FROM  
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT  
WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE  
SETUPS UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO  
INCREASE FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVE TILT  
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BEST  
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 
ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BE  
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SUNDAY  
MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES IN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT  
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS  
EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MID/LATE MORNING THEN  
INCREASE 15 TO 25KT GENERALLY AFTER 17Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 39 68 50 77 / 0 0 0 10  
GCK 38 68 50 79 / 0 0 0 10  
EHA 38 70 51 80 / 0 0 10 10  
LBL 39 69 50 80 / 0 0 0 10  
HYS 38 67 50 78 / 10 0 0 10  
P28 39 65 48 74 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...TATRO  
AVIATION...JJOHNSON  
 
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