462
FXUS63 KDDC 041110
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR 0% THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY; AND NEXT
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PASSING THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10-12 MPH FOR TODAY. THIS AIR
MASS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY; AND
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY TO WARMER WEATHER. THE ONLY
CHANGES WITHIN THE TUESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
STRENGTH OF THE PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS. GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY AND 5
TO 10 MPH OR LESS AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 15-25 MPH BY SATURDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY, ENCOURAGING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE 850MB TEMPERATURES STEADY AT ABOUT 20C AT DODGE CITY
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SUGGESTING AT LEAST MID 80S FOR
HIGHS, WITH UPPER 80S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW BY
SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE LOOK MORE LIKELY,
WITH 90TH PERCENTILE 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 22-23C. BUT THIS
IS ASSUMING THAT WE DON'T HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST A COOLDOWN BY
MONDAY OR TUESDAY; BUT SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE
FRONT PASSING SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF CERTAINTY THAT WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY; BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME LIGHT FOG AT DDC RESULTING IN
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS, WHILE THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SIT IN
VFR. ONCE THE FOG MIXES OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z, DDC WILL JOIN THE
OTHER TERMINALS IN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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