677
FXUS63 KDDC 141740
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY GUSTING 35-45 MPH.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY, WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SW KS (MUCH COOLER NORTH, STILL HOT SOUTH).
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
STRONG SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT MIDDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW ALOFT
OVER SW KS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MONSOON CIRCULATION OVER SW KS, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. RADAR INDICATED A FEW SPRINKLES
EMBEDDED IN THIS MONSOON PLUME ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME AFTER 4 PM, FAVORING THESE
NORTHWEST ZONES. PRIMARY RISK IN THE HOT, MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50-70 MPH, PER SPC 5-15%
WIND PROBABILITY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOCUS ALONG I-70 MONDAY EVENING, AND NBM CORRECTLY HAS
ITS HIGHER POPS HERE.
ELSEWHERE, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
GUSTING 35-45 MPH. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR THE RECORDS FOR SEPTEMBER 14 (100 AT DDC).
FORTUNATELY, MONDAY'S HEAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SW KS TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD FRONT'S
TIMING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE, A LARGE TEMPERATURE
RANGE WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY, FROM 60S AND 70S NORTH, TO NEAR 100
SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AT
SUNRISE, AND EXIT BARBER COUNTY BY 7 PM. EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR EACH LOCATION WILL DEPEND OF FRONTAL TIMING, AND A NON-
DIURNAL CURVE DOWNWARD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS. 12Z GFS SHOWS DECENT COLD ADVECTION
FOR SEPTEMBER, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
TEENS C. INCREASING AND LOWERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO ADD
TO THE FALL-LIKE FEEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/BEHIND THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BOTH BE MODEST AT BEST, BUT
STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS,
PER SPC MARGINAL 5% WIND PROBABILITY SOUTHEAST ZONES. COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN RETREATING NORTHWARD QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS QUICKLY RETURNING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS WARM ADVECTION PROCESS SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NBM RELOADS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AS
SOON AS WEDNESDAY, BUT MUCH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SW KS IN
THE 80S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT RETURNING THURSDAY, WELL
INTO THE 90S, ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST, AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND. MEX AND NBM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS AT ALL
AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z TUE, GUSTING 30-40 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AN EHA-GCK-HYS LINE BY 00Z TUE, WITH A PRIMARY
RISK OF OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 KTS. INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION
AT GCK/HYS FOR THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY, AND KEPT DDC/LBL TAFS
DRY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT
TUESDAY, WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT THE AIRPORTS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 25-28 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUESDAY, WITH LOWERING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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