440
FXUS63 KDDC 211045
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AUGUST AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE LATE AUGUST NORMALS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MIDNIGHT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A LONG-LASTING
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM/COMPLEX APPROACHING I-70 IN NW KS.
THE EXPECTATION HAS BEEN FOR WEAKENING WITH INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, BUT THE STORM HAS SHOWN PERSISTENCE AND
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE DISSIPATION.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH SUNRISE FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.
THE HOT AUGUST AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH MODELS
SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL +1-2C OF WARMING AT 850 MB OVER THURSDAY.
AS SUCH, PEAK HEATING TEMPERATURES OF 100-102 WILL BE COMMON.
THESE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS, BUT ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE AUGUST NORMALS. ACROSS MOST OF SW KS,
THE HEAT INDEX WILL REMAIN BELOW 105 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS/NEAR BARBER COUNTY, WHERE AFTER
COORDINATION WITH ICT/OUN, ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS FRIDAY.
STRONG UPPER HIGH NEAR 600 DM IN STRENGTH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE COLORADO ROCKIES FRIDAY. MODERATE NWLY MIDLEVEL STEERING
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER SW KS, WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROTATING CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. CAM CONSENSUS INCLUDING 00Z ARW SUGGESTS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NEBRASKA BY 4 PM FRIDAY, WITH
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH/MCS GENERATION INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. NBM HAS NO POPS > 14% IN THE GRIDS FOR
THE NORTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY HAVE
TO AMEND THIS, WITH AREAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR MOST AT RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITY FROM SPC FAVORS THE NORTHEAST ZONES, BUT MUCH OR ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE DDC CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUITE STATIC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ESSENTIALLY FINDING A HOME OVER NEW MEXICO. THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP
AFTERNOONS PLENTY HOT, WITH 90S EXPECTED EVERY AFTERNOON ALL
ZONES. THE GOOD NEWS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST DISPLACEMENT OF THE
RIDGE, THE EXTREME HEAT SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK, RESTRICTING
ANY TEMPERATURES OVER 100. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW PATTERN OVER SW KS, WITH
RESULTANT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT, AS DAILY ROUNDS OF HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION TRACK
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SW KS. NBM AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH NBM POPS ALREADY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
(>60%) TUESDAY EVENING. SOME STRONG MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS (MCSS) ARE PLAUSIBLE IN THE PROGGED PATTERN NEXT WEEK,
WITH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT/BENEFICIAL, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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