270
FXUS63 KDDC 291024
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
524 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING; CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING
- ISOLATED SEVERE RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, PULLING AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING, SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG COULD
DEVELOP, LEADING TO SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF THICKER FOG,
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1
MILE OR LESS IS ONLY AROUND 15-20%. ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE INTO THE MID TO LATER MORNING HOURS.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND THE ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
SUBTROPICS. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS WILL SHARPEN
THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WHILE FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL TOO STRONG, SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS COULD LEAD TO
STORM INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. OVERALL KINEMATIC
PROFILE WILL BE LACKING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, BUT CAM DEPICTED 30-40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS, AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS NO LACK IN
THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HOWEVER, AS MODELED MLCAPES OF
2500-3000 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY TO SUPPORT AND SUSTAIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES HAPPEN TO DEVELOP. WITH A WEAKLY VEERED
ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG INSTABILITY, SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE (20-50%)
FOR STORMS WILL BE EAST OF ROUTE 283 INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
VERY SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
KANSAS. VERY WEAK SHEAR, BUT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE. HOWEVER, THE DRYLINE MAY PUSH FARTHER EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LEADING TO A MUCH SMALLER WINDOW FOR STORMS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE ONLY HAS SLIGHT POPS (20% OR LESS)
FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEVERTHELESS, STILL BEARS WATCHING. AGAIN, ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF A LARGE HAIL AND A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. NBM MAXT PROBS FOR GREATER
THAN 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS 50-80% AND
60-90% RESPECTIVELY. THE GREATEST CHANCE (40-70%) FOR GREATER
THAN 95 DEGREES WILL BE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT THE
HYS TERMINAL WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
INCREASING IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON FROM A SOUTHELRY DIRECTION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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