502
FXUS63 KDDC 131041
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
541 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT FILTER INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL COOK IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
- COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A MODICUM
OF ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, POSING AN ISOLATED, MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC
DAYTIME THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KS. WITH THE CORE OF THIS SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED LOW
STRADDLING I-70, A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE LOW'S BACKSIDE WILL
TRICKLE INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S
NORTHWEST TO 105-110 SOUTHEAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS ALSO PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WHILE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR AT OR BELOW 20 KTS WILL LARGELY LIMIT SEVERITY, AN
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND N OF KS-96 WHERE MULTIPLE HREF
MEMBERS SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED CLUSTERING.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DAYTIME
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FAST OVER SOUTHERN DIXIE ALLEY. THE
PREVIOUS DAY'S SURFACE LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL KS WILL BEGIN TO
WASHOUT AS 500-MB HEIGHTS RISE, BUT A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
BOUNDARY THAT WAS FORCED INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A MORE MEANINGFUL AND
WIDESPREAD BREAK FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 90S THROUGH AN ELKHART-DODGE CITY-HAYS LINE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 102-106 RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, ALL HREF MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY,
POSING AN ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT BUSINESS WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL JOG IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING QUICKLY
ON MONDAY TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL
MANIFEST IN A COOLING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL ALSO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MONDAY AS DNVA AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE SUPPRESSES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME AND LOCATION OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR GARDEN CITY
AND HAYS BY 18Z TODAY AND THEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE DAY. AFTER 21Z TODAY THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY IN THE GARDEN CITY
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HAYS AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z FRIDAY. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS
(CEILINGS >12000FT AGL) CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT
WITH THESE CEILINGS DECREASING INTO THE 6000 AND 10000FT AGL
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ031-046-065-079-080-089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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