796
FXUS63 KDDC 250519
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE NEXT
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, ON SATURATED SOILS, MAY LEAD TO
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND, HAIL, TORNADOES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISK.
- BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS, RAIN CHANCES ENDING,
AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE UPPER-CONUS AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESIDES ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. NEARER TO THE SURFACE, A
CONTINUED WET PATTERN IS PRESENT WITH A SHORTWAVE LOCATED AROUND
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS SYSTEM IS AIDING IN THE GENERATION OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH TONIGHT BEING IN A SPC ENHANCED
RISK AND A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. PLEASANT HIGHS ARE
FORECAST OVER THESE TWO DAYS, PRIMARILY AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM 1 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 1 AM ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMES WITH TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST COMES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION
IN COLORADO/NEBRASKA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
GROW SPATIALLY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. IT IS HARD TO
NOT IMMEDIATELY COMPARE THE SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT, WHERE BENIGN
SHOWERS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND POLLUTED THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LEAVING SW KANSAS WITHOUT SEVERE STORMS. THE
FOCUS ON TONIGHT IS WHETHER THE STORMS REACH THE CWA AT SEVERE
STRENGTH. ENSEMBLES AND CAMS ALIKE ARE EXCITED ABOUT STORMS CHANCES
IN SOME SHAPE AND FORM. FROM A HIGH LEVEL PERSPECTIVE, ONE OF TWO
MAIN OUTCOMES ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WHERE
THE STORMS FIZZLE OUT SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING THE CWA AND WHILE
MORE STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL
STORMS BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA (CLOSER TO HOW THE NAMNST TRACKS). THE
ALTERNATIVELY LIKELY SOLUTION IS THE ONGOING STORMS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP A STRONG COLD POOL AND THE ORGANIZATION UPTICKS SIGNIFICANTLY
CREATING A MORE MCS STRUCTURE. IF THIS HAPPENS, SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH IS POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF: CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS, AND A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AT 30-35 KTS. IF
THE ORGANIZATION OCCURS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORT OF STRONG
STORMS. RECENT CAM TRENDS SUGGEST A MAXIMA MAY STRENGTHEN AROUND THE
SCOTT CITY/GARDEN CITY AREA, BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
REGARDLESS OF HOW SEVERE THE STORMS REACH, FLOODING IS A CONCERN
EVERYWHERE. ESPECIALLY WITH THE GROUND BEING SATURATED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS SW KANSAS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-2". AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OR TRAINING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ENSURE THERE IS
A WAY TO RECEIVE UPDATES/WARNINGS IF THESE POTENTIAL STORMS PRESENT
A CONCERN.
AFTER A SHORT REPRIEVE, THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO HAVE
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. CAMS DISAGREE WILDLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SIMILARLY BE
SUPPORT OF STRONG STORMS WITH HAZARDS OF ALL TYPES ALBEIT
POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE; CAPE OF 3000 J/KG, SURFACE TO 1KM SRH AT
300 M2/S2, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 60 KTS FROM NAMNST MODELED
SOUNDINGS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THE STORMS REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. UNLIKE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS, THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE ISOLATED WITH
A MORE SUPERCELLULAR MODE (WITH CAMS GIVING VERY HIGH SUPERCELL
COMPOSITE VALUES). THE SPC HAS A HATCHED 5% TORNADO RISK FOR THIS
AREA REFLECTING THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE CAMS ARE
PRESENTING. A LOT OF THIS RISK MAY BE CONTINGENT ON TONIGHTS
SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO RECOVER
ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW AND DENSE CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND WELL
INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. FRIDAY ALSO HAS HINTS OF MORE
CONVECTION IN FAR SW KANSAS, BUT MORE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY WILL
NEED TO BE ELIMINATED BEFORE PROVIDING CLEAR DETAILS.
SATURDAY ONWARD THE PATTERN SHIFTS SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS REACHING UPWARDS TOWARDS 100 DEGREES. THIS WILL
CREST ON SUNDAY WHERE ENSEMBLES HAVE NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA AT A
>50% CHANCE FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AND MEANS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES TOWARDS 105 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS SW KANSAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30
KTS. FAR SW KANSAS WILL HAVE A FEW DAYS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES,
BUT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL QUELL MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK. OTHERWISE, TRADITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS ARE
ADVISED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHORTLY INTO THE PERIOD, AROUND 8-10Z, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DESCEND FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACT ALL SITES EITHER WITH
PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS. LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO AT
LEAST MVFR IS FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE STORMS HOSTS SOME UNCERTAINTY.
AROUND 15Z MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR, BUT MAY LINGER
AROUND HYS FOR LONGER. ADDITIONALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD (AROUND 22-
2Z, MORE STORMS ARE FORECAST AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF NEARLY
ALL SITES WITH A RETURN OF LOWERED CEILINGS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR LBL. FUTURE TAFS WILL PROVIDE MORE CLARITY ON THE CEILINGS AND
LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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