238
FXUS63 KDDC 191707
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPROVE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED A FEW HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
AS IT CROSSED WESTERN KANSAS. TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WERE
PRESENT IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT UPPER
WAVE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE RETURN EARLY THIS WEEK WILL BE LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION THAT DID DEVELOP EARLIER THIS MORNING
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES OR EVEN
A FEW WIDELY SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH EITHER OF THESE UPPER
WAVES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING TO THE WARMUP THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH, WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, MID
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
PLAINS. IMPROVING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES (NEAR 20C) RETURNING TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN GOOD RUN TO RUN
AGREEMENT WITH THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES SPREADING BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND A SMALL 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN
THE THE NBM FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES IT APPEARS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT (MEAN ENSEMBLE CLUSTER 850MB WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY RANGING
FROM 40 TO NEAR 45 KNOTS) SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT THE NBM GUIDANCE
ON WIND GUST RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE
(20-30% CHANCE) THAT SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 45 TO NEAR 50 MPH BASED DEEP MIXING POTENTIAL AND
850-700MB WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATE THIS WEEK THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MID
WEEK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AS IT DOES THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE WEEK
BASED ON IMPROVING PWATS. BASED ON THIS COMBINED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
IMPROVING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER,
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE 9000 TO 12000FT AGL LEVEL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 9000 TO 12000FT AGL AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT
CURRENTLY THE PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LESS THAN 20%.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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