766
FXUS63 KDDC 112315
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021
MIDDAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THICK STRATUS COVERING
MOST OF SW KS, WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE. STRONG MAY
SUN WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PUNCH A FEW HOLES IN THE STRATUS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT BE VERY SUCCESSFUL.
LIGHT COOL, MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE PRETTY MUCH SATURATED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
WESTERN LOCALES WEST OF US 83 WILL FAIL TO GET OUT OF THE 40S, A
RATHER AMAZING FEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
LARGELY ENDED FROM THE LAST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STRATUS WILL REESTABLISH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, DESPITE A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING OVER SW KS. THIS BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
GROUND/BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE COLDEST NAM
GUIDANCE. STILL, UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF SW
KS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NO FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE NEARBY, SO IF ANY BREAKS IN THE STRATUS
CAN MATERIALIZE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW/MID 30S ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NW ZONES.
UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH ONLY GRUDGINGLY RELAXES ITS GRIP ON
WEDNESDAY. FORCING FOR RAIN WILL BE GONE, AND REMOVED ANY
REMAINING POPS. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, AND WINDS TRENDING LIGHT SELY WILL ONLY
RECIRCULATE THE COLD AIRMASS. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SHOW SMALL IMPROVEMENTS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021
ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO,
BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL RESTRICTED TO THE
40S. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT, AND LOW GRADE POPS FOR CONVECTION WERE RETAINED FOR THE
NORTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STILL LIMITED MOISTURE,
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY, AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES. DEWPOINTS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S AND
VARIOUS MODELS PROJECT CAPE UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ON THE DRYLINE FRIDAY EVENING,
FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES, AND NBM POPS WERE ACCEPTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM OVER THE
WEEKEND, IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND 60S WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
AN UPTICK IN THE NBM POPS HIGHER INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY WERE
ACCEPTED, FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES EACH EVENING. 12Z ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS, KEEPING A CLOSED MIDLEVEL
CYCLONE IN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, MID LEVEL
FLOW IS LEFT RATHER WEAK AND NEBULOUS OVER THE PLAINS, WITH ONLY
WEAK SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE AND INSTABILITY.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THERE LEVEL OF
SEVERITY REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN THESE KINEMATIC CONCERNS.
ACTUALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN.
12Z ECMWF DOES EJECT ITS CLOSED LOW INTO ARIZONA ON MONDAY, AND
ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WOULD CLEARLY FAVOR SEVERE CONVECTION
GIVEN MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE, BUT WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
MODELS TO SHOW CONTINUITY WITH THEMSELVES AND EACH OTHER. WE ARE
ENTERING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SEVERE PEAK, SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS TROUGH EJECTION CAREFULLY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2021
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. INITIALLY, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 40 58 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 40 57 41 70 / 30 10 0 0
EHA 39 57 41 73 / 40 10 10 10
LBL 40 58 41 72 / 20 10 0 10
HYS 39 60 42 68 / 40 10 10 10
P28 44 60 44 70 / 20 10 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TURNER
LONG TERM...TURNER
AVIATION...GERARD
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