369  
FXUS63 KDDC 190425  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH NO CHANGES IN COUNTIES  
AND NO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING AS PROBABILITIES OF 32F OR  
LESS ARE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A WARNING (HAMILTON CO. WILL BE  
CLOSE AROUND 50% PROB ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARK RIVER).  
 
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30  
MPH, SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND NO PRECIPITATION.  
 
- SIGNALS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ACROSS  
A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF KANSAS LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. NBM  
PROBS OF 1/4" OR MORE 2-DAY RAINFALL ARE IN THE 30 TO 50%  
RANGE, HIGHEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS  
FIELDS SHOWED THE PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH  
A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK, WHICH WAS AMPLIFYING UPWARD  
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE PHASING SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST. A SUBTLE  
"COMMA HEAD" FEATURE WAS DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT AS THE PHASED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE (MLC) MATURES  
TONIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS  
REGION.  
 
THE COLD FRONT, TIED TO THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT OF THE  
NOW PHASED MLC, CONTINUED TO DRIVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS  
WESTERN KANSAS RECORDING NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35+  
AT TIMES ON GOOD MSLP RISES BEHIND THE FRONT (ON THE ORDER OF +5  
MB/3H). DECENT MSLP RISES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,  
BUT AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANDING MSLP HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE DECREASING WIND,  
A CLEAR SKY, AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS FALLING DOWN INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 20S (DEGF) THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL  
COOLING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE INHERITED FROST ADVISORY  
ALONG/WEST OF LIBERAL TO DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY LINE STILL LOOKS GOOD.  
LATEST 12Z NBM AND HREF PROBABILISTIC FIELDS FOR 2-METER  
TEMPERATURES DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT UPGRADE OF THE FROST ADVISORY TO  
A FREEZE WARNING (32F OR LESS), WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING  
HAMILTON COUNTY.  
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS  
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE  
LARGER HEMISPHERIC SCALE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE, SO THIS  
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER A VERY FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT AND  
NO PRECIPITATION. MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THAT  
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL PREVAIL.  
 
HEADING DEEPER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, A LARGE SCALE MAIN POLAR  
BRANCH RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT  
PLAINS. AN INITIAL CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH  
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, EFFECTIVELY KICKING OUT THE  
SOCAL LOW OUT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF THE POLAR FRONTAL  
ZONE FROM THE EARLIER WEEK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND OR  
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, AND A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS  
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING  
TOGETHER FOR AN ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS A DECENT  
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FOCUSED ON LATE THURSDAY  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE  
SYSTEMS FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA, AND IF THIS PANS  
OUT, THIS FAVORS AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS,  
INCLUDING PERHAPS A FAIR PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THIS,  
THE NBM POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO INCREASE, UP TO AROUND  
40-50% FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.  
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A CONSISTENT TREND IN THESE POPS EXPANDING  
WESTWARD IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS, AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH  
MORE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HONING IN ON A STORM TRACK TO OUR  
SOUTH, POPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS  
SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT, SO THIS IS ABOUT AS SPECIFIC AS WE CAN  
GET REGARDING ANY SORT OF SIGNAL FOR THE LATE WEEK POTENTIAL  
PRECIPITATION EVENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT RATHER  
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS  
AROUND 15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR  
DDC AND GCK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-  
043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID  
AVIATION...BENNETT  
 
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