888
FXUS63 KDDC 091752
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- T-STORMS WITH A MARGINALIA RISK OF SEVERITY WILL FORM ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
- THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A COOLDOWN WITH TEMPERATURE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTH EAST.
- SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL WARM
US THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY FOR COOLER
WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE PROBABLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
17Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS
WITH A DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE OUT OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN
COLORADO WITH A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ELKHART TO ST. JOHN AND A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM DODGE CITY TO GREAT BEND.
TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT
OF COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS PROVIDING LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AS SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW FOR HAIL PRODUCTION
AND DCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1000-1100 J/KG. AREAS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN
A TRAINING FASHION THROUGH THE NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER
THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN A 24 HR PERIOD ENDING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ARE 60-80% FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE K-96 CORRIDOR. FURTHER
NORTH AWAY FROM THE FRONT THE RAIN CHANCES GO DOWN AS HAYS TO
WAKEENEY SHOULD EXPECT MUCH LESS RAINFALL.
THURSDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH DEPARTING STORMS AND CLOUDS
IN THE MORNING COMBINING WITH MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY ALLOWING FOR THE SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS BEING
LESS THAN 90 DEGREE FOR THURSDAY ARE 90-100% ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS STAY OUT OF A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THE SURFACE WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL BRING IN THE RETURN OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND BRINGING BACK SOME POP
CHANCES (20-30%) MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.
WEEKEND TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE CHANGED A BIT. LONG TERM ENSEMBLES
HAVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD DROP
HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S AND THEN SURFACE WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY HEATING US UP INTO THE MID 90S. EARLY NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLES HAVE A STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START OFF SPOTTY IN NATURE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT DDC,
GCK, AND HYS TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A MORE
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO. VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY IS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ALL THE TERMINALS
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL IN SOME OF THE STORMS WE COULD SEE
A DEGRADE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY TO MVFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 06-15Z.
RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BETWEEN 15-18Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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