217
FXUS63 KDDC 082142
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SEVERE STORMS BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PRIMARILY A DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND
RISK.
- LARGE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY LEAD
TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH LATEST NBM 95TH PERCENTILE SHOWING SOME 3"+ AMOUNTS
(1-IN-20 CHANCE AT ANY LOCATION)
- HOT AND DRY PATTERN LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE
WILL BE LATER ON THIS EVENING AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITHIN INCREASING MOIST UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL WINDS. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
(PARTICULARLY THE EXPERIMENTAL GSL VERSION OF THE REFS) HAVE A
PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL OF ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLLING ACROSS MAINLY FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH
SOME WEAKENING SIGNAL AFTER 05Z (MIDNIGHT CDT) AS STORMS MOVE EAST
OF THE U283 CORRIDOR. THIS WEAKENING SIGNAL IT MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW LATER AT NIGHT.
REGARDLESS, AT LEAST A SMALL MCS SHOULD SURVIVE EAST OF U283,
GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATEST NBM 12-HR QPF PROBS ARE
ALSO NOT ALL THAT HIGH WITH ONLY A 20-25% CHANCE OF 1/4" OR MORE QPF
LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE K96 TO I-70 CORRIDOR.
THE GREATER SIGNAL FOR NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS BETTER KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A LONGER-LIVED, MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
MCS. QPF SIGNALS ARE ALSO MUCH HIGHER OF A LARGER AREA OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH 24-HR (1 PM THURSDAY TO 1
PM FRIDAY CDT) CHANCES OF 1/4" IN THE 50 TO 60% RANGE FOR ROUGHLY
TWO-THIRDS OF THE DDC NWS FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
LIBERAL TO PRATT LINE. SAME TIME FRAME 1"+ PROBS ARE SHOWING 25-35%
PROBABILITY SCATTERED ABOUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE 13Z NBM, AND
IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW SPOTS SEE TWO INCHES OF RAIN
JUST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT'S EVENT ALONE WITH 90TH PERCENTILE QPF WELL
ABOVE TWO INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. A THIRD AND FINAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MOST LIKELY
FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH AND PROBABLY SOUTH OF OUR DDC FORECAST AREA
ENTIRELY -- ESPECIALLY IF THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING'S FORECAST
BIG MCS EVENT PUSHES THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE NEXT WEEK, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE TOWARDS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. LATEST GRAND ENSEMBLE OF THE BIG 3 GLOBAL
MODELS ECMWF ENS, NCEP GEFS, AND CANADIAN GEPS SHOW A MEAN 500MB
HIGH POSITION FORMING OVER THE COLORADO/WYOMING ROCKIES MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH
50-60% PROBABILITY OF 600 DECAMETER HIGH CENTER. SUCH AN ANOMALOUS
HIGH THAT FAR NORTH WOULD ACTUALLY PUT SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A
STRONGER THAN NORMAL DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME, THUS KEEPING THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH PERHAPS A SLOW RAMP UP TOWARD UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 BY THE END OF
OUR 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH
RAINFALL GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER
HIGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
GENERALLY GOOD FLYING WEATHER PREVAILING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY WEST OF US 83
(GCK-LBL) LINE THROUGH 06Z FRI, WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACTS ON ANY AIRPORT. AS SUCH, REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AT
ALL TAFS, BUT LEFT A VCTS/CB MENTION AT GCK AROUND 06Z FRI.
OTHERWISE, BROKEN CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DAYLIGHT THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED VFR.
A MUCH STRONGER SIGNAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EVIDENT
JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD, 00-12Z FRI, WHEN IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
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