810
FXUS63 KDDC 190410
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE FINAL DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BOTH
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS MOVING INTO WESTERN KS
FROM SOUTHEAST CO.
- MUCH COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN TAKES HOLD MONDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S RANGE AND DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING REVEAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS BETWEEN A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND A ~594-DM RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EAST-
CENTRAL CO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST KS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NE, SEPARATING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND COOL TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTH. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INCHES EASTWARD DAYTIME
SATURDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL YIELD ONE FINAL DAY OF SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHILE THE NORTHWESTERN HALF BEGINS TO
COOL OFF WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S. THIS COLD FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BOTH ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS WELL
AS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN SOUTHEAST CO. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OR MEANDERS INTO OUR
AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CO WILL CARRY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ~30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THE PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUSTAINED BY 850-700-MB WARM ADVECTION,
BUT THESE WILL POSE A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT WITH TIME. OTHERWISE,
COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE SUNDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND AT LONG LAST, MOST OF SOUTHWEST KS WILL
ENJOY COOL TEMPERATURES AS AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAK IN THE 70S. SOME
AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER MAY STILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S OWING TO A MORE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS, BUT THIS WILL STILL BE
A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 HEAT THESE AREAS HAVE
BEEN MIRED IN FOR MONTHS.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE COOL TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY AS NBM HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
70S TO MID-80S RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST MOST,
IF NOT ALL DAYS, FAVORING OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO SURROUND THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE NBM PAINTS CHANCE POPS (25-54%) ACROSS
NEARLY OUR ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL FLIP TO
NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK, SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS WILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT BEFORE CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE TSRA
MENTION IN THE TAFS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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