672
FXUS63 KDDC 232230
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
530 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BEHIND WEAK RIDGING TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (70-90%) REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE SREF CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING ALOFT PUSHING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO, TAPPING INTO MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, PREVAILING SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPING WILL FURTHER REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE LOWER 60S(F), PROVIDING
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO, THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING STILL REMAINS TO BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS INDICATED BY CAMS AND THE LATEST HREF INDICATING A WIDESPREAD
70-90% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.5 OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF RAIN (60-80% CHANCE) CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AGAIN WITH A 70-90% PROBABILITY
OF 24-HR QPF TOPPING 0.5 OF AN INCH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLIES FURTHER DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, NOT
TO MENTION HOLDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S(F) TO NEAR
60F. WITH THIS, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S(F) WITH THE HREF
SUGGESTING A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 65F
IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
LESS THAN A 10% PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 65F NEAR AND ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA LINE. FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE LATEST HREF PAINTS A
70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 70F, EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S(F) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE LOWER
80S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. ALL SITES ARE FORECAST TO HAVE INTERMITTENT PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO THE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED NATURE, IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT EXACT START
STOP TIMES SO IT SHOULD BE EXPECTED THAT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT ANY
POINT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE TAFS TRY TO ARTICULATE THREE
DISTINCT PERIOD: THE FIRST BEING ON AND OFF SHOWERS THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN WAVE OF RAIN OCCURS FROM AROUND 6-17Z. AFTER
17Z, RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT THE CHANCES/CONFIDENCE ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO BE EXCLUDED IN THE TAF. WITH THE SHOWERS, LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THIS
MAY FLUCTUATE WITH THE ON AND OFF AGAIN SHOWERS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KBJ
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