314
FXUS63 KDDC 302251
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
551 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IS SPREADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER END RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE SREF
INDICATES A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING, THEN OUT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECT
OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY CAMS AND THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A 10-30%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AFTERWARD,
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK DESPITE MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES POINTING TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY, AND UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IN
RESPONSE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN WHILE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A DRIER WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS, PUSHING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY OFF TO OUR EAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
DOING LITTLE TO ERODE THE COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S(F) TONIGHT WITH THE
LATEST HREF INDICATING A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 40F NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO BETTER THAN A 90%
PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 40F ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. MORE SEASONAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GIVES WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLIES, DRAWING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 90% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN
90% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 60F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 60S(F). HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 70S(F) TO POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 80S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE ALL SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE -RA
OR VCSH, ONLY GCK HAS A LARGE ENOUGH CHANCE (>30% VIA ENSEMBLES) FOR
AN INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS, ALL SITES WILL SEE
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD, BUT IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK
SYSTEM, THE LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WINDS STRENGTHENING AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KBJ
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