406
FXUS63 KDDC 181018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
518 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY; RECORD HIGHS THREATENED
- VARYING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND
- DRY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THIS MORNING WILL BE ONE MORE STRETCH OF SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP COMMENCES TODAY AND
INTO THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL WARMTH
IS EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. RECORD HIGHS COULD CERTAINLY BE THREATENED
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 95 IS 60-90% CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SAFE TO SAY THIS UPCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE
UNSEASONABLE FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. FOR REFERENCE, THE ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH AT OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE:
DDC-98, P28-98, AND GCK-93.
WITH THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL COME VARYING RISK LEVELS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EACH
DAY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE LOW AFTERNOON MIN-
RHS, BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MOST VARIABLE CONDITION THROUGH
SATURDAY. TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO FEATURE THE WEAKER
WINDS, BUT SOME INDICATIONS HINT AT BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THESE DAYS. THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS
ON SATURDAY WHERE THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES
HIGHLIGHT AT LEAST A 40% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING MET. BEYOND SATURDAY, DESPITE HUMIDITY LEVELS
INCREASING (LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS), NBM POPS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN THE CONSISTENT RIDGING PATTERN WE ARE IN.
THEREFORE, ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL STRUGGLES TO NEAR THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TATRO
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