359
FXUS63 KDDC 301627
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN MOVE BACK WESTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH WESTERN KANSAS ON THE
SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF THE WESTERLIES, WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
DUE TO THE WEAK MID LEVEL WESTERLIES, THERE ARE VERY SMALL
CHANCES FOR T-STORMS EACH EVENING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
(10-20%). HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE
LACK OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY, ANY STORMS CLOSE TO THE COLORADO STATE LINE WILL
NOT BE SEVERE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS WESTWARD NEXT
WEEKEND, THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CEASE; AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. ALSO, GIVEN THE SOLID RIDGING
ACROSS THE PLAINS, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT IN
THE VERTICAL, LEADING TO DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY. HENCE, CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE NEAR 0% NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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