406
FXUS63 KDDC 210705
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
WE WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONT. THE HOTTEST HIGHS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SE ZONES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL
AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. HAVE BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. FOR TONIGHT,
THERE MAY BE LINGERING ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWS HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING LOOK SEASONAL WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
MONDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURE WISE. 80S INSTEAD OF 100S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT 80S
CONTINUING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE OTHERWISE
THE FA WILL SEE A DRY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS CONVECTION/STORMS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR.
THE LONGEVITY OF THE STORMS IS IN QUESTION, BUT DO HAVE TS IN FOR KGCK/KDDC/KLBL
AS THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING WEARS ON. THE MAIN CONCERN/THREAT
FOR THE STORMS IS OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 KT. WOULD THINK SOME WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE TERMINAL AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WINDS TODAY
WILL BE N/NE 10-20 KT POST-FRONTAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 69 92 62 83 / 40 40 40 10
GCK 66 89 60 83 / 70 30 30 0
EHA 65 92 62 80 / 50 40 50 10
LBL 69 93 62 84 / 50 40 40 10
HYS 69 86 60 82 / 40 30 30 0
P28 73 97 68 86 / 10 40 40 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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