219
FXUS63 KDDC 102254
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO 10 MPH TOWARDS SUNSET.
- A BRIEF WARMUP RETURNS MID WEEK ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE ON THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE CHANCE FOR 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 1/2 INCH EAST AND SOUTH OF DODGE CITY IS
50-60%.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATED A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A COOL DOME OF HIGH AT THE
SURFACE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. FURTHER
WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYER FOR OUR LATE WEEK
WEATHER.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY IS THE POST FRONTAL COOLDOWN AND GUSTY
WINDS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 2PM TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S
WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE CURRENT NBM LOWS, WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A FEW
LOCATIONS, MAINLY THOSE PRONE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE, MAY EVEN
DIP NEAR 20 DEGREES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WARMER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER BACK
TO THE SOUTH AS IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY, AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES, UNSEASONABLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY BEING IN THE 60S, AND EVEN A FEW 70S
BEING POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL INCREASES FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS IMPROVING
MOISTURE AND LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL BE
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST GULF MOISTURE
RETURN, ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT, IS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND BE MAINLY OVER
OKLAHOMA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES NORTH OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE HAVE
SHIFTED THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND QPF SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS SUGGESTS LOWER RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS STILL LIKELY (60-80%) SOUTH
OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER GIVEN THE LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 1/2 INCH, ENDING 6 PM SATURDAY FOR AREAS FROM DODGE
CITY EAST AND SOUTH, IS 50-60%. THIS IS A DECREASE FROM THE
75-80% CHANCE FORECAST YESTERDAY. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME THE
EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE TRACK AND
MOISTURE RETURN UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED
LIFT AND PWATS RANGING FROM 0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES, THE LATEST NBM
24 HOUR TOTALS (0.25 TO NEARLY 1 INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS) APPEAR TO BE IN THE BALLPARK, MAINLY
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN OCCURS.
LOOKING AHEAD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS, THE RAIN WILL
END. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WERE DROPPING OFF TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS OF
2245Z, AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT PICK
UP IN SPEED OUT OF THE SOUTH AT LBL AND HYS TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. FLIGHT CATEGORY
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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