173
FXUS63 KDDC 011800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY DRY FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTER SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A RAPID
HEATING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
100+ DEGREE READINGS RETURNING.
- VERY HOT AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, HOTTER
THAN NBM GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A BEAUTIFUL MIDSUMMER DAY WAS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SW KS AT
MIDDAY, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM, WITH
READINGS ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMALS IN
THE LOWER 90S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL SHORT OF 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ON WEAK NORTHEAST
WINDS.
CLEAR CALM AND QUIET TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A CLEAR SKY, LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AT LEAST
FOR MIDSUMMER STANDARDS. SUNRISE SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN, IN THE 60-65 RANGE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A STRONG HEATING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 33C WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100 MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, NBM
DOES NOT APPEAR HOT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND INCREASED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEVERAL DEGREES.
12Z MAV GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
105-108 ACROSS MUCH OF SW KS, WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
IMPROVED MIXING AND ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS. NBM PROBABILITY OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IS HIGHEST, >90%,
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
GRIDS SUPPORT APPARENT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX <105 FOR ALL
ZONES MONDAY, SO A HEAT ADVISORY DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK
REQUIRED.
A COMPLETELY DRY, VERY QUIET REGIME, TYPICAL OF EARLY AUGUST,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 7 PM MONDAY, WITH ALL POPS AT 0%
AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SUBTROPICAL
MIDLEVEL RIDGE NEAR 598-600 DM IN INTENSITY, WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVER THE COMING WEEK, SLOWLY CRAWLING NORTH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH SW KS BENEATH THE EASTERN ARM OF THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A STRAY STORM MAY SNEAK INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AMID THE WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. NBM POPS ARE
CORRECTLY MINIMAL, AND CONFIDENT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HOT AND DRY
PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH AUGUST 10, WITH CPC'S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK SHOWCASING AN 80% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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