121
FXUS63 KDDC 141842
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-283 WHERE MOISTURE QUALITY IS HIGHER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT
SEVERITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SEVERE CHANCES POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER ELKHART AND ADJACENT AREAS WITHIN AN AREA OF
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WEST OF A DRYLINE NEAR US-283.
SHORT RANGE CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL
INITIATION FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. AS CONVECTION MATURES WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION, 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 30-35 KTS AND
IMPROVING MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUALLY INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FAVORING AREAS EAST OF A
GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL LINE. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE THE HIGHEST QUALITY MOISTURE EXISTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MIDDAY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXITING THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ROUGHLY
ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALSO NOTED
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SUPPORTING SCATTERED CIRRUS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN ANTICIPATED. THAT SAID, STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION AND
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
QUICKLY WITHIN ANY PROLONGED CLOUD BREAKS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY BY 20-21Z, INITIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH WITH TIME. SOUTHWEST KS
APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT,
BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO FOSTER AROUND 30KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WEST OF THE DRYLINE THAT IS
CURRENTLY NEAR US-283, LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIMIT HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN REACHES THE GROUND, BUT AS CONVECTION
MATURES AND MOISTURE IMPROVES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPART OUT AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT,
AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
DAYTIME TOMORROW, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A STRONGER BELT
OF FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH FROM NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION MAY SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON HIGHS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL PEAK IN
THE 90S. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS EMANATING WITHIN THE
FLOW EJECT ONTO THE PLAINS, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK 500-MB
WINDS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN
SOUTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT AREAS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, LOCATION DEPENDENT ON THE NEWFOUND
SURFACE LOW'S ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. AT THE MOMENT, MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE MOST VOLATILE DAY AS A STRONG VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE IS LIMITED, AND ANY/ALL DAY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
MUCH COOLER AIR AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALSO FOSTER SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THAT COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS,
SO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP IN ALL TAFS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ075>078-
084>089.
UPDATE...SPRINGER
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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