748
FXUS63 KDDC 051043
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
443 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR WEDNESDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN USA SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM, HIGHS WERE IN THE 60S AT SIMILAR
ELEVATIONS (2000-4000 FEET) FROM NORTHERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON WEDNESDAY; AND THIS AIR WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND STRONG MIXING, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANY
EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STAY WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW ONLY 10-30%
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN .01") MID NEXT
WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ADVERTISED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HELP SHOVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ARCTIC AIR, THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BUT
STILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 15-17Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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