636
FXUS63 KDDC 261014
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FAVORING AREAS GENERALLY EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.
- NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING, HOWEVER THE
STRONGEST STORM MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE 4 PM TO 8
PM TIME FRAME, ROUGHLY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MID TO UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WITH THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
OF THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THE UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON
MONDAY. A STORM TRACK OF THIS TYPE WILL LEAD TO NEGLIGIBLE COLD
FRONT PUSH AND WILL HELP KEEP THE REMNANT WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. AS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING'S REMNANT SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY (YET STILL FAIRLY MOIST) AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES MONDAY LATE AFTENOON AND EVENING AND
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES 500 TO 1000 J/KG THANKS TO A LITTLE
BIT OF INSOLATION, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE
CITY TO LARNED LINE. NBM POPS OF 40-70% APPEAR GOOD WITH NO
ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY
WINDS, BUT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE CAPE GREATER THAN
1000 J/KG, NO SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
MOVING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK, THE THEME WILL BE WARM
TEMPERATURES AS THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REVERT
QUICKLY BACK TO LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE WEST WITH HIGHER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THUS, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR WARM
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS
WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS WELL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 70S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY WITH LOWS MOST MORNINGS IN THE
UPPER 40S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
AREAS OF INTERMITTENT LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WHILE BECOMING MORE VARIABLE GENERALLY AFTER 22-00Z
AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE STALLING
OUT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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