943
FXUS63 KDDC 301600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT
- WEAK "COOL FRONT" MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, HOT NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SPC HAS DRAWN UP A RISK LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL) FOR STRONG STORMS
MID TO LATE EVENING. THE 12Z CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE RATON MESA AND COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT/THREAT WOULD BE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH, SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HOT
AND MIXED WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE FORECAST. AGAIN, IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS STANDS TO SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.
OTHERWISE, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WIND SHIFT WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT
WILL SEE LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE SECOND IMPACT FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN HIGHS. ACTUALLY, HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE STORMS FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
UNITED STATES TO OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING HIGHS
THROUGH THE BUSINESS WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 10S AS WE CLOSE OUT THE BUSINESS WEEK. LOWS WILL ALSO TREND
WARMER WITH MORE 70S INSTEAD OF 60S, AS WE FINISH OUT THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF STORMS LATE EVENING, HOWEVER, THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE TERMINALS. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW, PARTICULARLY IT APPEARS OVERALL IMPACTS WOULD BE
MINOR IF SO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ086>090.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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