798
FXUS63 KDDC 161645
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
- CONVECTION CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY AND MONDAY RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONLY OUR WESTERN ZONES HAVING ANY
APPRECIABLE CHANCE.
- THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE EVENING, THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE SPREAD OUT OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KS, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING
EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME SUNDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIC OVER SOUTHWEST KS, AND WITH MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHERE LOW 90S WILL BE ACHIEVED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY
EVENING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS, WITH ALL HREF MEMBERS SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST CO, BUT WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE KS BORDER. A ROGUE
SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (<20%).
DAYTIME MONDAY, ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN CONUS BY 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
PROCESS WILL HAVE LITTLE NOTEWORTHY IMPACT ON SOUTHWEST KS, AS ONLY
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL DRIVE A MINOR UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO
APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE HREF MEMBERS KEEP OUR AREA
DRY, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT FAVORING
OUR WESTERN ZONES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL ENGENDER A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, COINCIDING WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THE
MOMENT, WEDNESDAY EVENING CARRIES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NBM PAINTS POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY (25-54%) THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KS, AND THESE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
PREVAILING WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT THE
ONSET OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WHICH PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
ZONE WELL SOUTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THUS, TONIGHT'S EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL REMAIN PRETTY
FAR SOUTH, HOWEVER SINCE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS BECOME UPSLOPE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD STILL IMPACT LBL AND PERHAPS EVEN GCK AND DDC, SO
WE WILL KEEP SOME PROB30 IN THE TAF FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, AVIATION WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL THIS PERIOD WITH LINGERING MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
THINNING OUT TO VFR.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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