041
FXUS63 KDDC 292230
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
530 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO LINE.
ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT, AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED THIS EVENING AS THE
SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED H5
VORT MAXIMA TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR THE SURFACE, DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HELPING NUDGE A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING WHILE
POOLING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN
VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST HREF INDICATING A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING
0.1 OF AN INCH IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR AND
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE BY LATE EVENING. A SIMILAR SITUATION
WILL EXIST FOR TUESDAY, YET A STRONGER PERTURBATION LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES, PROVIDING A STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AND A WEAKER CAP MAY
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HREF SUPPORTS THIS WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD 50-70% PROBABILITY
OF 6-HR QPF TOPPING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY LINE.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE TO REINFORCE A WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 70S(F)
AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY WITH A PROJECTED RETREATING DRYLINE ALLOWING MOISTURE BACK
INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF SHOWS ONLY A 20-
40% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF NUDGING
ABOVE 95F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 90S(F). SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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