124
FXUS63 KDDC 232255
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL.
- BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS, RAIN CHANCES ENDING,
AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A COMPLICATED FORECAST REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MORNING, WITH SIGNIFICANT/FLOODING RAINFALL.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT NOON SHOWED THIS ACTIVITY HAD EITHER
MOVED SOUTH OR WEAKENED GREATLY, WITH CLEARING IN PROGRESS ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES. MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN ARE WILDLY
OUT OF PHASE AND OF LITTLE GUIDANCE. THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WHERE STRATUS
CLEARS AND INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP. MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
THE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF KANSAS STRONGLY CONVECTIVELY
OVERTURNED, WITH NEAR ZERO SURFACE BASED CAPE, WHILE A STRONG
INSTABILITY AXIS PERSISTS OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS ASIDE, LOGIC SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL FAVOR
AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
MAINLY WEST OF US 83. TO THAT END, BACKED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR SPRINGFIELD, COLORADO/BACA
COUNTY AT NOON SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS MAY BE NEAR ELKHART AT PEAK
HEATING. AT ANY RATE, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND. SOME MODELS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STRONG
MCS TONIGHT, HAVE SINCE LOST THAT SOLUTION, BECAUSE THEY ARE
FOCUSING THEIR DEVELOPMENT TODAY, PERHAPS INCORRECTLY. SUSPECT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON THE WESTERN ZONES/EASTERN COLORADO
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER MCS GENERATING OVER SW KS
TONIGHT. SPC 15% SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY CONTINUES ON THE
1630Z OUTLOOK, AND THIS IS SUFFICIENT UNTIL MESOANALYSIS AND
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE ASSESSED MORE WITH TIME.
THE ACTIVE, WET PATTERN OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. INTENSE MIDLEVEL HIGH NEAR
600 DM STRENGTH NEAR EL PASO MIDDAY TUESDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING THE WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES INTACT OVER SW KS, ON THE HIGH'S
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. POP GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON THE NIGHTTIME HOURS (7 PM - 7 AM), AS THIS TRADITIONAL
SUMMER MCS PATTERN CONTINUES. JUST LIKE WE ARE SEEING TODAY,
SMALL SCALE DETAILS, IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST WELL IN ADVANCE,
WILL DETERMINE SPECIFIC THUNDERSTORM LOCATION AND INTENSITY EACH
DAY. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND, AS WELL
AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING. ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGY
PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEGINNING FRIDAY, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED, AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS STRONG
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY, FORCING
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO RETURN TO KANSAS, ALONG WITH DRAMATICALLY
HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. NBM FORECASTS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 96-102 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, IN AGREEMENT
WITH 12Z MEX GUIDANCE. RAIN OPPORTUNITIES WILL BE GONE AFTER
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS
SHOW LOW-END VFR/HIGH-END MVFR CIGS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL
TERMINALS. LATEST CONSSHORT SUGGESTS CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO LOW-END MVFR/HIGH-END IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME
BEFORE RECOVERING TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, CURRENT
MODEST EASTERLY WINDS AOA 12 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY SUNSET, AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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