009
FXUS63 KDDC 311637
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.
- MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 283. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST DAILY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID TO LATE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THESE STORMS MID WEEK MAY RESULT IN LOCAL WATER ISSUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A 500MB TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTH INTO NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WHERE SEVERAL WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVES EVIDENT EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A SURFACE LOW
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE LOW INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXCEEDING 90% AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IT
DOES APPEAR THAT PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED FROM HIGHWAY 283
EASTWARD EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MONDAY AS OUR NEXT
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BEING LIKELY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THIS EVENING BASED ON LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT
ALONG A NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BASED ON FORECAST 0-6KM SHEAR >40 KNOTS AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE >8C/KM. THE AREA MOST FAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE DAY WITH A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS BEING LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A NORTH SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WE WILL QUICKLY AGAIN
HAVE MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS A
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION TO THIS THE ENS
INDICATED IVT FROM THE GULF DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A 30-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
DAILY ACROSS SOME PART OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT DEEP SHEAR AND THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, BUT THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR ON TUESDAY MAY BE MARGINAL
FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE MAIN CONCERN MID TO LATE WEEK MAY END UP BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MORE THAN 90% OF
NORMAL, ALONG WITH SLOW MOVING AND SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. GIVEN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS THIS WEEK TO MOVE OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND WATER ISSUES BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST BY 06Z MONDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BRING
MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES THE RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283, ESPECIALLY IN THE HAYS
AREA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE
SURFACE TO 850MB LEVEL. AS A RESULT WAS A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE FOG AND STATUS DEVELOPMENT AT HAYS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING PREVAILING CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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