916
FXUS63 KDDC 161037
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
537 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY TODAY
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3PM TODAY WEST OF A ULYSSES TO GARDEN
CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
EARLIER THIS TUESDAY MORNING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH OUR
UPCOMING MIDWEEK COLD FRONT ALREADY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, A SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS OBSERVED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. PWAT
VALUES RANGED FROM 1 TO 1.3 INCHES. ONE WEAK 500MB TROUGH WAS
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE OUR NEXT, MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR IDAHO. A +70 KNOT 250MB JET
WAS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THIS IDAHO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY RANGED FROM 20 TO 24
DEGREES. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
STAY IN PLACE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHWEST
KANSAS. GIVEN THESE WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY THE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO THE HIGHS WHAT WE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY (MONDAY). THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMING TO AN END AS OUR NEXT SHOT OF COLDER AIR TAKES
AIM ON SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH NEAR IDAHO AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THIS UPPER LOW TODAY
AND THE NOSE OF THIS JET BEING LOCATED NEAR THE THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY, AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. CAMS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON NEAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED. SHEAR LATE IN THE DAY IS STILL FORECAST
TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS, BUT LARGE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
DOWNDRAFT CAPE, AND >15C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE 700-500MB
LEVEL SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. THIS WIND RISK WILL LINGER WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. THE GENERAL AREA WILL BE WEST OF A ULYSSES TO
GARDEN CITY TO WAKEENEY LINE.
ON WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION AND THE UPPER
LOW MOVES AND DEEPENS OVER NEBRASKA. HIGH PWATS AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT, COMBINED WITH IMPROVING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDER
THE COOL 500MB LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOW IF WE ADD THIS RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY TO THE
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WE MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THE RISK OF POSSIBLE WATER ISSUES. SREF 0-500MB SHEAR IS
BETTER ON WEDNESDAY THEN TODAY AND IS STILL FORECAST TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF +50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT IT STILL APPEARS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE.
WPC ALSO APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ON HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY,
GIVEN THAT SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOW IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
NOT ONLY WILL THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK BUT COLDER AIR WILL ALSO
BE USHERED IN TO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COOLER AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND GIVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>70%) ON
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING. AS A RESULT THE LATEST NBM
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WITH THE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. HIGHS LATE WEEK WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY 18Z
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY FOR GARDEN CITY AND BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE LIBERAL, HAYS AND DODGE CITY AREAS.
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE OVERNIGHT STORMS.
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO
INCREASING VFR CEILINGS OF 5000 TO 10000 FEET AGL AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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