217
FXUS63 KDDC 241715
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY FOR MOST OF SW KS SATURDAY, WITH
CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
WEST OF US 83 SATURDAY.
- RAIN WILL MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY, BUT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF US 83.
- AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH EJECTS INTO KANSAS.
- PLEASANT MILD FALL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH
NO FREEZES IN SIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MIDDAY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEFINED A STRONG
CLOSED CYCLONE OVER SW ARIZONA. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO SW KS, WITH AREAS OF VIRGA, SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
SYNOPTIC REGIME IS STATIONARY, OR IS ONLY CRAWLING EASTWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS SUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ANY RAINFALL
WILL MAKE MINIMAL (IF ANY) EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO KANSAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
DESPITE THIS, MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AT NOON DEPICTED A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO SW KS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT, BEFORE WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY, WITH SYNOPTIC
EASTWARD TRANSLATION AT A SNAIL'S PACE. AS SUCH, ANY POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF US 83 THROUGH 7 AM
SUNDAY. MOST OF SW KS WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD IN THE 50S.
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY,
ALIGNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY 7 PM. A RICH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION, WITH AGAIN MINIMAL EASTWARD PROGRESS, THANKS TO A
BLOCKING UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THIS MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS SUNDAY, BUT AT A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW PACE,
PERHAPS TO US 283 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CLEARLY, HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF GRIDS ARE CORRECTLY PLACED WEST OF US 83 THROUGH MIDDAY.
VARIOUS CAMS AND 12Z NAM SUGGEST LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDING IS
PROBABLE ALONG/WEST OF US 83 BY 4 PM SUNDAY, WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAIN DODGE CITY EASTWARD. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
QUITE POOR AND LIMITED, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED, AND
ANY THUNDER VERY LIMITED. SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING OF RAINFALL
BANDS, WITH LITTLE EASTWARD TRANSLATION, MAY INCREASE FLOODING
OR HYDROLOGY ISSUES AT LEAST LOCALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY
CLEAR THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS EVENT - MUCH MORE WEST, MUCH LESS EAST.
FINALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE PARENT TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
IMPROVING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE
EFFICIENTLY SPREADING EASTWARD. NBM POPS REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED
CATEGORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES SW KS
COMPLETELY, AND SUBSIDENCE RETURNS DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY.
A PAIR OF BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH BOTH AFTERNOON AND SUNRISE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. 70S WILL BE COMMON BOTH AFTERNOONS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEGREES AT PEAK HEATING EACH
DAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, ESTABLISHING STRONG
MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE MAINTENANCE, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NO COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE PROGGED BY MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS, WITH CONFIDENCE SW KS WILL SEE NO FREEZES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MIDLAYER CLOUDS PREVAILING. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SW KS SUNDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
GCK/LBL, BUT INCLUDED VCSH FOR THOSE AIRPORTS. HYS/DDC WILL
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ALL SW KS
AIRPORTS DAYLIGHT SUNDAY, WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES GRADUALLY
DEGRADING. LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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