316
FXUS63 KDDC 132228
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY
- STORM CHANCES THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT BEFORE NEXT WEEK WARMS BACK UP
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND A SMALL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE,
BUT ALSO HAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE LINGERING CHANCES LATER INTO THIS WEEK. PRIOR
TO THE STORMS, HIGHS WILL JUMP UP TO 100-110 DEGREES. AS A RESULT,
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN THREE COUNTIES
FROM NOON UNTIL 9 PM. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD FOR THE NEXT EASTERN 6 COUNTIES. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB ALL THE WAY UP TO 115 TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LATER IN THE DAY, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. EVEN THIS MORNING,
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS AN
AGGREGATE OF THE PROMINENT CAMS WITH WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INITIATING
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT AROUND 0Z. STORMS WILL THEN EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY INTO THE NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS MARGINAL
AT AROUND 30 KTS. AS A RESULT, SEVERE HAIL MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
ALONG A SCOTT CITY TO HAYS LINE AND NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION FALL AS VIRGA. IF SO, DRY
LIGHTNING WILL POSE AND OVERNIGHT FIRE RISK AND NEED TO BE
MONITORED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CREATING A WIND
SHIFT. RECENT TRENDS IN CAMS HAVE THE CONVECTION PUSHING FARTHER
NORTH SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. THAT SAID, ENOUGH CAPE AND MOISTURE
IS PRESENT FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT; CONVERSELY HOWEVER THE LACK
OF UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL GREATLY LIMIT SEVERITY. THE
ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FORECAST LAPSE RATES
OVERPERFORM, A WIND GUST UP TO 75 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH MOST OF
SW KANSAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWER 100S. BARBER COUNTY WILL
BE BY FAR THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS AGAIN PUSHING 108 WITH NOTABLE WAA
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY, STORMS CHANCES VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORMS TRYING TO MAKE THE MOST OF
MARGINAL LOWER-LEVEL INGREDIENTS. WIND WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE BEING VERY MARGINAL IF ANYTHING AT
ALL. STORMS ARE AGAIN SHOWN BY CAMS TO INITIATE AROUND 0Z ALONG
BOTH THE COLORADO/KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDERS. THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE CAPE AND LAPSE
RATES, BUT EVEN LESS SHEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS TOO
DISORGANIZED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE BE CONDUCIVE TO 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS. IN THE OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT THE POTENTIAL CAN BE TAPPED, CONSIDERABLE WIND GUSTS
ARE A THREAT.
DEJA VU CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
IN TEMPERATURES AND STORMS CHANCES. THE MOST PROMINENT
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT IS EVEN MORE MARGINAL WITH
THE BEST CHANCES PUSHED TO THE NORTHWEST ZONES. MORE TEMPORAL
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT PREVENTING A PLETHORA OF DETAILS, BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER- BASED STORM STRUCTURE WITH WIND
GUSTS CONTINUING TO BE THE NUMBER ONE THREAT. IF A LOT OF RAIN
FELL IN CONCENTRATED AREAS IN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE PRESENT.
SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE
80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES AGAIN HAVE A ROUND OF STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THAT APPEAR SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE REST OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES THAT REMAIN BELOW 20%. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY BEFORE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WARMS BACK UP
INTO THE 90S AND EVEN APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN.
THROUGHOUT ANY OF THE DAYS, ESPECIALLY TODAY, THAT SEE VERY HOT
WEATHER KEEP PRECAUTIONS IN MIND BY STAYING HYDRATED AND TAKING
COOLING BREAKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SOME MID CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HYS TERMINAL WHERE
WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-
079-080-089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-
081-090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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