683
FXUS63 KDDC 271016
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING MORNING FROM INTERSTATE 70 SOUTHWARD TO
AS FAR AS POSSIBLY MEDICINE LODGE. THIS FOG WILL SLOW THE
WARMING OF HIGHS IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE VERY
WARM FOR THE REST OF THE FA TODAY.
- SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
- ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MIXED IN WITH REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AN IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS IS DENSE FOG. THERE IS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM OAKLEY
SSE TO MEDICINE LODGE. FEEL THAT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
DOWN TO NEAR OR AT THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE, DENSE FOG SHOULD
FORM IN THE MORNING. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONCERN. IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR HOW FAR WEST THE EDGE OF THE
DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD. IT MAY REACH DODGE CITY, OR IT COULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CITY. FOR THE REST OF THE FA, THERE
SHOULD BE LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. FOG SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE FOR THAT SECOND AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY SLOW THE WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HERE, 70'S FOR HIGHS ARE LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF THE FOG-FREE AREA, THE DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S.
ON MONDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO CARVE OUT
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM, ACROSS OUR AREA, SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE NET WEATHER
RESULT FOR MONDAY IS A DRY FORECAST AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AS SFC
PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS
SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION, IT LOOKS LIKE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE SYNOPTIC LOW. LOOKING
DOWNSTREAM OF THESE TWO FEATURES, IT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT
MONSOONAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN ACROSS KANSAS.
PWATS ON SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INCREDIBLE WITH VALUES IN THE
1.5" TO MAY BE EVEN AS HIGH AS 2.0". IF YOU CONSIDER THAT THE
AVERAGE PWAT FOR KDDC FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR IS 0.74", YOU CAN
SEE HOW STATISTICALLY ANOMALOUS THIS INCOMING PWAT IS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE INCREDIBLY PRIMED
FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE STATE. THE LATEST WPC QPF
GRIDS ARE FORECASTING 2" TO 4" ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING
THIS PERIOD. WPC ALSO HAS A MODERATE RISK TUESDAY AND A SLIGHT
RISK WEDNESDAY IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. LOOKING AT
OTHER MODEL SETS, THE LREF HAS GREATER THAN 60% PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL MORE THAN ONE INCH. FOR 2", THE LREF IS DOWN TO 30-40%
CHANCE. FEEL THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO CONSERVATIVE THOUGH.
EXAMINING NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ENS, IT
LOOKS FLAT OUT WET ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SEVERAL OF THE MEMBERS
HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
BOTTOM LINE: IT IS LOOKING VERY LIKELY THAT A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST LATE DAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN
TO FALL LONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE EAST WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG AT 12Z TODAY, MAINLY IN THE HAYS AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES INDICATED
THAT THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE THAT STRATUS AT
LESS THAN 1000FT AGL WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE HAYS AREA.
ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AREAS AFTER 09Z. IN THESE AREAS THERE
WILL ALSO BE BE A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO
FALL BELOW 3 MILE AFTER 09Z MONDAY. AT TIME WILL TREND TOWARDS
THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BUT CONFIDENCE THAT FAR
OUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AS LOW (IFR CONDITIONS) JUST YET AS
WHAT THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
044>046-064>066-078>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
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