645
FXUS63 KDDC 272252
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRATUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- THE LAST RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED, AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
70S.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MIDDAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OUTLINED STRATUS ERODING ACROSS
SW KS, FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS PROCESS WILL ACCELERATE
SOME THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND
MIXING INCREASES, BUT NORTHEAST ZONES NEAR HAYS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER A STRATUS OVERCAST THROUGH SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
AT 4 PM WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO MID 70S SOUTHWEST.
THE RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED, AND SW KS WILL NOW REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY MILD TONIGHT, IN THE 50S THROUGH
SUNRISE.
STRONG WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH MODELS FORECASTING A
NET WARMING OF +5C AT 850 MB, ALONG WITH ADDITION OF FULL
SUNSHINE AND A SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND, WITH ALL LOCATIONS WARMING EASILY
THROUGH THE 70S, WITH LOWER 80S IN THE PREFERRED WARMEST
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS, FROM THE RED HILLS TO MEDICINE LODGE.
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE THURSDAY - A FANTASTIC FALL DAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN, WITH LESS WIND.
SW KS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.
A WEAKENING PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THURSDAY. VANCE IS
WEAK AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WEAKER WITH TIME, BUT STILL
REMNANT MOISTURE AND VORTICITY MAXIMA FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY MODELS TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE SWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW, AND REGENERATE WITH ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX EARLY FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
WITH NBM POPS NOW IN THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE (70-90%)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH
RANGE, JUST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONE, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. NBM MAINTAINS A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS
EVENT, BUT WITH A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE POOR, LIMITING THUNDER, BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK. FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
GAMES WILL BE WET, BUT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY - ESPECIALLY FOR HALLOWEEN STANDARDS - WITH A CLEARING
SKY AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 60S AND 50S SATURDAY
EVENING.
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SW KS UNSEASONABLY MILD
AND MAINLY DRY FOR MOST OF DAYLIGHT SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING CONTINUITY, FORECASTING THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS COMBINING INTO A STRONG PLAINS
CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS STORM WILL
EXIST, THAT IT WILL BE HIGHLY DYNAMIC WITH VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS, AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ALSO
APPEARS LACKING, TYPICAL OF AN EL NINO SETUP, SUCH THAT MOST IF
NOT ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN. PRIMARY IMPACT
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH WINDS, 50-70 MPH, WITH A
HIGH WIND WARNING PROBABLY REQUIRED AT SOME POINT. ONE WEEK OUT,
THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME TIMING AGREEMENT THAT
INTENSE NORTH WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS LATE
MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page