027
FXUS63 KDDC 081141
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, POSING A STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
- RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN HEIGHTENED MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
TODAY WILL BEGIN THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WAVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THAT AREA OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BEFORE PIVOTING A BIT EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US
FIRMLY IN THE GRASP OF THE RIDGE, RESULTING IN DAILY VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FIRMLY EXCEED 100 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE AREAS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST ARE IN WESTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF 105 DEGREES OR GREATER
IS 40-70%, SO THERE IS A SOLID CHANCE MANY AREAS WILL EVEN BE
105-109. EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE STRETCH TO BE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE A DRIER HEAT AND THEREFORE HEAT INDEXES
MAY BE THE SAME IF NOT EVEN LOWER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, A HIGH BASED LINE OF CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
TRACK INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IF THIS IS TO OCCUR, GIVEN LARGE DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS
OF NEARLY 40-50 DEGREES, STRONG WINDS 50-60 MPH WOULD BE A RISK
WITH ANY CONVECTION. LATEST 00Z HRRR/ARW/NSSL HAVE COME IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING, SO SOME POPS WERE
ADDED. SPC MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF
THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND SOME OF THAT MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND AND APPEAR AS VIRGA. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO RESULT IN LIGHTNING IGNITING ANY DRY
VEGETATION. THOUGH RECENT RAINS IN SOME SPOTS COULD LIMIT SOME
OF THAT RISK. SUNDAY COULD SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION, WITH SOME
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTED SOME CONVECTION IN EASTERN CO THAT
TRIES TO GET INTO WESTERN ZONES, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE EVEN
MORE SPARSE THAN TODAY. IF ANY STORMS WERE TO OCCUR, AGAIN, DRY
LIGHTNING LEADING TO GRASSLAND FIRES COULD BE A CONCERN. FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WERE CONSIDERED TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK, BUT
COLLABORATION CONCLUDED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE.
THE HOT AND DRY SPELL LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK AS A PATTERN FLIP IS EXPECTED. LONG TERM NBM AND VARIOUS
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EACH EVENING/NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. FORECASTING RAINFALL WITH SUCH CONFIDENCE FOR THE AREA
THIS FAR OUT IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE AND GARNERS QUITE A BIT OF
ATTENTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY WILL
EXIST AND SOME AREAS MAY MAKE OUT BETTER THAN OTHERS WHEN
EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE, BUT THE PATTERN DOES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD WELCOMING RAINFALL. CURRENT POPS IN THE
FORECAST AREA EACH EVENING AND NIGHT DURING THE STRETCH ARE
30-70%. SPECIFICS ON TOTALS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
MINIMAL NOW, BUT DAILY DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT AS WE
GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY FAR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACT AT ANY
SPECIFIC AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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