729
FXUS63 KDDC 071657
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
- THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLIER TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
STATE LINE. MODELS TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND BASED ON
THIS PLUS THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE WHAT TO EXPECT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 00Z EACH DAY SO AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
AFTERNOON WIND GUST OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND, A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN
AND PRODUCE A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. ALSO A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE 850 MB ENSEMBLE MEAN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY
COMBINED WITH THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT ONLY
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE NBM WIND FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE LOW.
THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE WHICH
IS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A PATTERN TRANSITION
WILL BE OCCURRING LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY GETS REPLACED
BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE SOME ONGOING TIMING/EVOLUTION ISSUES THAT FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS DEVELOPING WESTERN UNITED
STATES UPPER TROUGH/LOW, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE ON A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION MAY
END UP BEING MORE CORRECT. CURRENTLY 60% OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE (LOW AS
IT MAY BE) FOR PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, HOWEVER THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE TOWARDS THE PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TO BE LESS THAN 70S DEGREES RANGES FROM 40 TO 50
PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z
THURSDAY GIVEN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEING PRESENT AROUND
DAYBREAK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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