403  
FXUS63 KDDC 172200  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
500 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE  
TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS  
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANCHORED LOW LEVEL  
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE WILL  
BE SLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS AS A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A  
SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.  
HOWEVER, IT WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO INTRODUCE ANY INSTABILITY DURING  
THE PERIOD. STILL, A STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT ENOUGH  
LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE LIGHT  
RAIN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS SOMETIME GENERALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.  
 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY RISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 40S(F) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COOLER  
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY EVEN AS LOW LEVEL  
SOUTHERLIES RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING  
SURFACE HIGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF  
PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 50S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS  
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD QUICKLY KICKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AS  
A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A WEAK  
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE VERY EARLY PART OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE HIGH  
PLAINS, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS(C) BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING HELPING THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER  
70S(F) TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO  
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, IN TURN DROPPING  
H85 TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TOWARD 10C. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN  
THE 60S(F) SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES  
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  
SCATTERED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS OF 22Z WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND  
LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SE WIND PREVAILING. CEILINGS WILL  
CONTINUE TO LOWER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY, EXPECTED TO  
REACH MVFR BY 21Z THU AT GCK/LBL, AND AT LEAST APPROACH MVFR AT  
DDC. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT HYS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL  
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO LBL/GCK/DDC THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS  
TO AVIATION WILL BE LIMITED. KEPT THE HYS TAF DRY, WITH LIGHT RAIN  
MOST LIKELY AT HYS 00-06Z FRI. AFTER 15Z THU, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE  
MODESTLY AT ALL AIRPORTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 44 55 45 70 / 10 40 30 0  
GCK 43 54 42 70 / 20 30 20 0  
EHA 45 53 42 69 / 30 30 20 0  
LBL 45 53 44 70 / 20 40 30 0  
HYS 40 58 44 69 / 0 20 10 0  
P28 45 58 48 68 / 10 40 50 20  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...TURNER  
 
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