927
FXUS63 KDDC 111635
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH THROUGH MONDAY
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EARLY
INDICATIONS OF MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
- COOLER HIGHS NEXT WEEK AFTER TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MADE UP OF TWO KEY FEATURES.
THE FIRST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEARER TO
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LOW
PRESSURE AMONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SUNDAY WILL BE A NEAR CARBON
COPY OF SATURDAY ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. DRY WITH A STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND AT AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHS
AGAIN WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND POTENTIALLY AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE WARMEST AREAS KEEPING UP THE PATTERN OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGHS. MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR WITH WEAKER WINDS AND
WARMER HIGHS. WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ONLY
AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 25% TO QUELL MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER RISK.
THE INTEREST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH A BUNCH OF MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED INTO KANSAS PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM WITH THE ADDITION TO SOME
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOISTURE AGAIN, WIDESPREAD STORMS/RAIN IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRESENT IN BOTH
THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT TIMING. TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH AS
SLOWER THAN INITIALLY PROGGED. DESPITE THOSE QUESTIONS AND THE
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY, IT APPEARS LIKE THERE REMAINS A NOTABLE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC HAS A 15% BOX ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.
THE CSU MLP HAS A 5-15% BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. EARLY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAS CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS. THIS IS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
FORE SEVERE WEATHER SO THE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. THROUGH THE COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE THE EARLY AMOUNT INDICATIONS OF 0.5-1.5"
OF RAIN WITH THE DRIER REGIONS OUT WEST AND THE WETTEST ZONES NEAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS TRENDING MUCH WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IF THE SYSTEM TRACK CONTINUES TO
BE LATER THAN DEPICTED, THESE AMOUNTS MAY DROP OR SHIFT EASTWARD.
OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION, IT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 70 AND HIGHS DROPPING EVEN LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TOWARDS THE 60S. IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE CAA BEHIND IT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH, GUSTING TO OVER 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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