061
FXUS63 KDDC 251916
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH CONTINUED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- RAIN COVERAGE BEGINS DECREASING FRIDAY, BUT A FEW MORE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- AN ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER, MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS NEAR 100 DEGREES, AND
STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 0-1 KM SRH WAS ON THE ORDER OF 100-150 M2/S2 ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE OK/KS STATE LINE AND
AS HIGH AS 200 M2/S2 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS AROUND 50 KTS IN THE AREA OF INTEREST WHICH IS GENERALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE,
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WERE LOW LEVEL
SRH IS ENHANCED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE GIVEN THE RATHER COOL AIR MASS FROM DODGE CITY
NORTHWARD PER 18Z KDDC RAOB.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
MIDDAY RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTED A STRONG MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) EXITING THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS MCS
PRODUCED WIDESPREAD, IMPRESSIVE FLOODING RAINFALL ROUGHLY ALONG
A SCOTT CITY-DIGHTON-JETMORE-KINSLEY-PRATT LINE.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES AND ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, AS THE MCS OUTFLOW SAGS
SOUTHWEST AND MODIFIES, INTERSECTING THE STRONG STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ALREADY SURPASSING
3000 J/KG IN THIS JOHNSON-LIBERAL-ASHLAND CORRIDOR. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD INITIATE NEW STORMS AFTER 3 PM. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, AND ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL THAT CAN TRACK PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE ENHANCED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND
RELATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MUCH DRIER WEATHER BEGINS FRIDAY, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. WEAK COOL HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COOLER
SURFACE AIR WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS SW KS SIGNIFICANTLY
FRIDAY, AND MODELS ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING, KEEPING MOST
CONVECTION WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF SW KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS SUCH, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
LATE JUNE NORMALS.
THE ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, AS STRONG
TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYNOPTIC
CHANGE WILL STRENGTHEN SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OVER SW KS, AND DEEPEN
LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO NEAR 990 MB OVER EASTERN COLORADO. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW DRAMATIC RAPID WARMING SATURDAY, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOARING TO NEAR 30C. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON (PROBABLY ONLY MID 90S IN AREAS OF
STANDING WATER). DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE QUITE ELEVATED ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES, NEAR 70, SO A HEAT ADVISORY IS PROBABLE TOWARD
CENTRAL KANSAS. LIKEWISE, STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG THE REESTABLISHED DRYLINE, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP ALL LOCATIONS DRY.
A PAIR OF HOT WINDY AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 97-103 AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
NEAR 40 MPH. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
105 DEGREES, EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ZONES/CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL PIVOT NORTH
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY GOING INTO CANADA MONDAY. WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE STRONG MERIDIONAL
FLOW, SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SUNDAY/MONDAY, STRONGER
THAN NBM GUIDANCE. AGAIN, SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ON THE DRYLINE, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED AT THE AIRPORTS AS OF 1530Z, WITH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z THU,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT, AND ANY IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORTS,
ARE VERY LOW. DID NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS,
BUT LBL/DDC STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF HAVING A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE VICINITY LATER TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD, MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRPORTS THROUGH 12Z FRI.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ FRIDAY FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
UPDATE...FINCH
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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