295
FXUS63 KDDC 252228
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
TONIGHT WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. ISOLATED HAIL UP TO QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THIS MORNING, LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING, THERE WAS A 500MB HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH. SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH, IN AN
AREA OF DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY
WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.
FURTHER NORTH, A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARDS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES, ALONG WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY (1.4 TO 1.8 BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS)
IS ALSO PRESENT WHICH FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THESE STORMS. BASED ON FORECAST MUCAPE OF +4000J/KG BY
EARLY EVENING, HIGH PWAT VALUES AND 0-6 SHEAR INCREASING TO 30
TO 35 KNOTS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MAIN RISK FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND
HAIL.
TIMING OF THESE STORMS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...OUR FIRST
UPPER WAVE WAS CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME
(NOON), AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS
BY 3PM. AS A RESULT, THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS OF NOON TODAY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS WIND GUSTS MAY STAY IN THE 50-60 MPH. HAIL IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. ONCE THESE STORMS END THEN OUR NEXT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5PM AND
7PM ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS (WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83) AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AT
TIMES WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70MPH, QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA.
AS OUR TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE EXIT WESTERN KANSAS, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES...BRIEFLY. THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY IS
SMALL AND DIFFERS BY LESS THAN 5F BETWEEN THE COOLER 25TH
PERCENTILE AND WARMER 75TH PERCENTILE. GIVEN THIS WILL BE
STAYING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S), BUT TEMPERATURES IN SOME
AREAS MAY END UP BEING EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS (2-3F
COOLER) ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CLOUD
COVER MAY BE PRESENT.
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ON
WESTERN KANSAS AS IT SHIFTS EAST FROM SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
REBOUNDING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT, WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
VARIABILITY, AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEING STABILIZED BY EARLIER
STORM OUTFLOW. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS, CHOSE TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT
OF THIS SET OF TAFS AND WILL MONITOR. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TURNER
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