986
FXUS63 KDDC 231050
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
550 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..UPDATE TO AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INSTABILITY IN A WARM SECTOR JUST SOUTH
OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ATTENDANT TO AN ORGANIZING SURFACE LOW
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS HINTED BY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CAMS, AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK
H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING CAP. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO A COUPLE OR
SO COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
WARMER AIR UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH,
PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
TO THE NORTH, AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING STRATUS MAY KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 60S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE 70S(F).
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S(F) DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
ANY CLOUD COVER LINGERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHIFT FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A DRIER PATTERN CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BY
TUESDAY AS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN AMPLE
MOISTURE RETURN SETTING UP THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INCREASING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S(F) TO THE LOWER/MID 70S(F). A RE-ESTABLISHED
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING QUICKLY
DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE FAST APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, RETURNING SOUTHERLIES TO WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS COULD
BE PUSHING THE 80S(F) BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE STRATUS DECK BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 77 52 71 40 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 73 46 70 39 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 85 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 87 51 74 41 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 68 52 65 36 / 20 20 20 0
P28 85 62 75 43 / 20 20 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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