523
FXUS63 KDDC 110700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL MID JULY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LIGHT WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER COOLDOWN ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDNIGHT INDICATED A MCS
DISSIPATING OVER KANSAS. DDC RECORDED A HEAT BURST FROM THE
DECAYING MCS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE TEMPERATURE RISING
FROM 77 TO 92 AT 1230 AM CDT. REMAINING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SW KS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
TYPICAL MID JULY, SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY HOT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 15 MPH,
WHICH WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO HEAT IMPACTS FOR THOSE WORKING
OUTDOORS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT
NORTHEAST BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY 7 PM,
WHERE SOME MODELS SUCH AS 00Z NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS REDUCED POPS BEFORE 7 PM,
AND ONLY KEPT MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE (<25%) NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER/SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY
GENERATE A STORM BEFORE 7 PM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY
DAYLIGHT FRIDAY.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SW KS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS INSTABILITY WANES IS UNCLEAR. WHAT IS MUCH
MORE CLEAR IS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY 7 PM, AND THESE
WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FAVORING WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE
EXPECTED MCS WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK FROM COLORADO. SPC MARGINAL
5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY IS WARRANTED WITH THIS EXPECTED
ACTIVITY; HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
COLD FRONT'S OUT OF PHASE TIMING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WORKING
TOGETHER TO HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE
LOWER 80S. THE FORECAST HIGH AT DDC SATURDAY IS 82, AND NORMAL
IS 94. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH COOLER, HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S, PARTICULARLY IF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS/RAIN CAN
HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY. NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. NBM POPS DO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, BUT NBM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM IF
NAM VERIFIES. INSTABILITY IS DISPLACED MAINLY SOUTH OF SW KS,
AND SPC MARGINAL 5% SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY IS CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OF COURSE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INCREMENTALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR MINIMAL TO
ABSENT, AND DRY NBM POPS REFLECT THIS. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
GFS/ECMWF FORECAST A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY MORNING, INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL FORCE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO SW KS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME RANGE, WITH A RETURN OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER AFTERNOONS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 04Z SHOWED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) DECAYING OVER SW KS. REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS OR DISSIPATED
BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD (06Z FRI), FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL REMOVAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z FRI.
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT FRIDAY, WITH
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT MAY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT, SO KEPT THIS SET OF TAFS DRY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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