434
FXUS63 KDDC 052314
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST KS MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AND COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
IN THE POST COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT, HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOME THROUGH MIDDAY, THOUGH WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ERRODED TEMPS HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS VERY
CLEARLY OUTLINED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MIDDAY, STRADDLING
THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. AUGUST SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THE STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT VERY SLOWLY BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MOISTENING AT
LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.10-0.25" WILL BE MORE COMMON, THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSER
TO 0.50" OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC REGION OVERNIGHT, GETTING AS
HIGH AS 50-60% IN THOSE AREAS.
THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR MODEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WILL CREATE A STRONGER FLOW REGIME
OVER WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MODEST
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST, DIFFERENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD AGAIN LEAD
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...AN EXPANDING SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL SIGNAL A MUCH DRIER PERIOD WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND THE
100 DEGREE MARK AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG A TRIBUNE TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AT 5 TO 10KTS. WINDS THEN
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 20 TO 25KTS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TERMINALS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...BROWN - NWS LBF
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