365
FXUS63 KDDC 081010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE ATOP THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS, AND
NEBULOUS FLOW IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AGREES THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN/RETROGRADE
FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, 850-MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY
4-5 DEGREES C, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION
OF THE RETROGRADING RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS/MODEST STRENGTHENING OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATEST HREF SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT AREAS AMIDST SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
WITH TIME, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KS, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER SUNSET AND BRINGING A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST
THREAT.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS MODEST ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S MCS, CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW SPREAD OUT OVER SOUTHWEST KS WILL BE MODIFIED BY STRONG
SOLAR INSOLATION, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING
RE-ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 90S NORTH OF US-50 TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. ONCE AGAIN, A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ENGENDER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN CO BY
MID-AFTERNOON. HREF MEMBERS EXHIBIT STRONG AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS, MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KS AROUND 00Z, AND ROLL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GIVEN A FAVORABLE
CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE, THIS MCS WILL POSE A PRIMARILY
SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT, ALTHOUGH SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE KS/CO BORDER WITHIN ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN PERSIST
AS CONVECTION ENTERS OUR AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS YET
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEYOND FRIDAY HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES AGREE A STRONG, CUT-OFF HIGH
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE CORE OF
THIS RIDGE REACHING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KS. WHILE THIS EVOLUTION
LIKELY MEANS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE WARMEST
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWN NORTH OF OUR CWA,
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH MID-
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VERY ISOLATED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NEAR/EAST OF DODGE CITY
AND HAYS WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL STAY
FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE TAF SITES SO NO PLANS TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. IF
CONDITIONS CHANGE CLOSER TO ISSUANCE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CEILINGS IN THE 9000 TO 15000FT AGL
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOCATION
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (<20%) NEAR THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE DAY, THE BETTER CHANCE (30-50%) FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AFTER 02Z THURSDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS CROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THESE STORMS PASS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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