655
FXUS63 KDDC 281621
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1021 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A COOL DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING
- A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A FEW THUNDER STORMS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS A
WINTERY MIX. SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STARTING TONIGHT WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT BEING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE IN THIS UPSLOPE
DIRECTION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ADVECTING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS TODAY REBOUNDING INTO THE
70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO LOW 60S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT THEN DIP INTO
THE 20S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MIXED IN. IF EVERYTHING SETS UP JUST RIGHT THERE MAY BE A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY EVENING
BUT FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE WHAT COMES TO
FRUITION. LONG RANGE MODELS BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS MONDAY
LOOK TO RANGE FORM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. MID 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S RETURNING THURSDAY. A COOL
DOWN IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE TRANQUIL. NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD MID-LATE MORNING
SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS, BUT AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TERMINALS WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH WEST IN THE DRIER AIR MASS, SO AVIATION WEATHER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN GOOD WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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