063
FXUS63 KDDC 040415
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GREATER
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
- AS A RESULT, HOT AND PRIMARILY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARD UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20-40% VIA ENSEMBLES) OF STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE
REST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS STILL DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DRAMATICALLY JUST OFF OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A VERY WEAK AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE PERSIST
IN WESTERN KANSAS. DESPITE THIS, CONVECTION HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED IN KANSAS. SOME VERY WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
EASTERN COLORADO, BUT EVEN IF IT CLIPS THE CWA IN THE COMING
HOURS THE IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE HEADLINE OVER THE COMING DAYS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY. THIS INCLUDED THE
HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD. EVEN IF THE CRITERIA IS NOT MET
AT AN APPARENT TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES, THE PROLONGED SPAN OF
HEAT WARRANTS THE ADVISORY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND
100-102 DEGREES WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES UP 107 DEGREES IN
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THE BLISTERING HEAT, THE OTHER
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BOTH DAYS, CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCONSISTENT SIGNALS
OF CONVECTION. ESPECIALLY FRIDAY IS STILL PROGGED TO BE
PRIMARILY SCATTERED STORMS. JUST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
INGREDIENTS IN NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS (1200 J/KG CAPE, 30 KTS
SHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 10 C/KM). IF THE STORMS
ORGANIZE, THE STRONGEST COULD APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH 50+
MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL. THAT SAID THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THE
STORMS WILL FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS AND OUT OF COLORADO AROUND 5
PM. HOW LONG AND HOW FAR EAST THE STORMS MAKE IT IS UNDER
SUBSTANTIAL CAM DISAGREEMENT. TOMORROW'S FORECAST WILL HAVE A
BETTER GRASP ON THE SITUATION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY AWAY OF HEADLINE CRITERIA AT ABOVE 20%. HOWEVER
WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH, ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, BUT
STILL AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT RANGE. THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL NEARLY
PERFECTLY REPLICATE FRIDAY. STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM
COLORADO IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH AN UNCERTAIN LIFESPAN AND
EASTWARD EXTENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MORE CAPE
AND LESS SHEAR AVAILABLE. WITHOUT THE SAME AMOUNT OF SHEAR, THE
SEVERE CHANCES (THAT WERE ALREADY LOW) DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECASTS, BUT JUST HOW
THE STORMS ARE LOOKING CURRENTLY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S, BUT WITH EVEN LESS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE 20%, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THAT STRETCH AFTER THE HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRING SUNDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS, ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN BULLISH ON WEDNESDAY'S
PRECIPITATION. THESE CHANCES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY. WHAT
ORIGINALLY APPEARED LIKE A WIDESPREAD 20-40% OPPORTUNITY IS NOW ONLY
A 10-20% CHANCE AND RESERVED FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES. MORE
MONITORING WILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF THESE DRIER TRENDS
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY, PRIMARILY AROUND 10-15
KTS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME CONVECTION IS FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT REMAINING WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. NO IMPACT TO
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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