558
FXUS63 KDDC 181706
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. A REF FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WEST AND NORTH OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
WARM THROUGH THE 80S EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND EVEN A FEW 90S POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
FORECAST MIXING DEPTH UP TO THE 800MB LEVEL (BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS) WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITHOUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS TODAY, THE
FIRE RISK WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL, ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
THE DODGE CITY AREA. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS AREA OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVE THE THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS LATE DAY. SHOULD INCREASING WINDS AS SEVERAL
SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST HEN A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED. THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY.
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF CONCERN IS NOT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING,
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED TODAY AND THOSE IN
THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN CASE WINDS
INCREASE.
THESE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SUBSIDE BY
SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW
WEST OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE INCREASED WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
MORNING (SAT MORNING). GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK, WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WEST AND NORTH OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY, NO FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE GARDEN CITY AREA. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 32 TO 36 DEGREES, BUT THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS WILL
LIMIT OR PREVENT FROST DEVELOPMENT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON SUNDAY, WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY.
IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES WILL ALSO
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS, COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY (10-15%), WILL CREATE AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE IS
A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20
MPH. AS A RESULT A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAKER
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE
DAY SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING THIS AREA INTO THE RED FLAG
WARNING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRIEFLY DROP SOUTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY. THIS IS AS AN UPPER RIDGE, LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO
THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUR
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE PACIFIC AND BEGINS TO CROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD, THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 80S
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH EVEN A FEW 90S BEING POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283.
ALSO AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF APRIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHING
THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS KEEP THIS MOISTURE
RETURN EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. THIS IS DUE TO A DRYLINE THAT MODELS
HAVE FORECAST TO BE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONGOING RISK
FOR HIGH TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE RISK WEST OF THIS DRYLINE WE WILL ALSO
BE MONITORING THIS DRYLINE MID TO LATE WEEK FOR THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, BUT
CURRENTLY, THE MODELS PLACE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS BOUNDARY NEAR OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS, 10
KNOTS OR LESS EARLY SUNDAY, WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE RISK TODAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE RISK WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
LESS THAN 15% TODAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. WHILE A BUILDING HIGH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS, DEEP MIXING MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL
HOURS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO WIND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING
25 MPH. THE CURRENT PROBABILITY FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS IS
40-50% NORTH OF THE DODGE CITY AREA, MEANING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS OF 11 AM. THIS
SITUATION, HOWEVER, MAY CHANGE QUICKLY, AND IF THE STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOP, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. THOSE NORTH OF
DODGE CITY SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND MONITOR THE
FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY.
ON SUNDAY...LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA
DUE TO IMPROVING DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW 15% FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A
GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 25 MPH, AND
GIVEN THIS CONFIDENCE, WE WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
REASON IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND AS A RESULT, THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG THERE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ063-064-
074>078-084>087.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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