406  
FXUS63 KDDC 210705  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
205 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
   
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
WE WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES  
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONT. THE HOTTEST HIGHS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS  
THE SE ZONES IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL  
AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. HAVE BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT TO CHANCE  
POPS ACROSS THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH. SEVERE WEATHER  
LOOKS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TODAY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. FOR TONIGHT,  
THERE MAY BE LINGERING ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING,  
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY. LOWS HEADING INTO MONDAY  
MORNING LOOK SEASONAL WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
MONDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT TEMPERATURE WISE. 80S INSTEAD OF 100S. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT 80S  
CONTINUING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO REASSERT ITSELF ON THURSDAY  
WITH HIGHS MODERATING INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.  
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE OTHERWISE  
THE FA WILL SEE A DRY FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS CONVECTION/STORMS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TAFS BASED  
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR.  
THE LONGEVITY OF THE STORMS IS IN QUESTION, BUT DO HAVE TS IN FOR KGCK/KDDC/KLBL  
AS THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING WEARS ON. THE MAIN CONCERN/THREAT  
FOR THE STORMS IS OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50 KT. WOULD THINK SOME WEAKENING  
WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE TERMINAL AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WINDS TODAY  
WILL BE N/NE 10-20 KT POST-FRONTAL.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 69 92 62 83 / 40 40 40 10  
GCK 66 89 60 83 / 70 30 30 0  
EHA 65 92 62 80 / 50 40 50 10  
LBL 69 93 62 84 / 50 40 40 10  
HYS 69 86 60 82 / 40 30 30 0  
P28 73 97 68 86 / 10 40 40 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN  
LONG TERM...SUGDEN  
AVIATION...SUGDEN  
 
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