584
FXUS63 KDDC 190908
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
ACCUMULATION. I-70 CORRIDOR LIKELY LITTLE OR NO SNOW WITH AN
INCH TO INCH AND A HALF POSSIBLE AROUND LAKIN-GARDEN CITY
AREA.
- SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 10TH PERCENTILE NBM SHOWS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE TEENS WITH LOWS AROUND 0 DEGREES (F)
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANYING
THE ARCTIC AIR, HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM
IMPACTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SPECIFICALLY, IS QUITE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
OVERNIGHT SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGICAL SETTING COMPRISED OF A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
WESTERN KANSAS FOUND ITSELF ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE
BROADLY CYCLONIC JET STREAM PATTERN. WITHIN THE CONTINENTAL SCALE
CIRCULATION REGIME WERE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
THROUGH THE PATTERN. ONE OF WHICH WAS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS REGION INTO COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. A SUBTLE
JET STREAK IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE (~250MB) FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, AND THIS WILL KEEP
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN FAVORABLE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAK, EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
(FGEN) FORCING FOR ASCENT. RAP13 ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWED 700MB FGEN
AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL CO INTO ADJACENT FAR WEST CENTRAL KS, AND
UNSURPRISINGLY, THIS IS THE REGION OF ENHANCED RADAR ECHO WITH
ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW OBSERVATIONS FROM LIMON TO BURLINGTON, CO DOWN
TOWARD LEOTI, KS.
MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION SHOW THE 700MB DEFORMATION
AXIS AND BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID-MORNING. THE MATURING OF THIS 700MB
FGEN AXIS WILL BE FLEETING, HOWEVER, AS THE OVERALL UPPER JET
STRUCTURE SUPPORTING THE MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PATTERN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THUS, BANDED SNOW, MAINLY
LIGHT WILL LAST AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS. THE 3D
STRUCTURE OF THE FGEN IS NOT ALL THAT WELL ORGANIZED, REALLY ONLY
ENHANCED AROUND 700MB (QUITE SHALLOW), AND FOR THAT REASON,
PRECIPITATION (SNOW IN THIS CASE) RATES WILL BE QUITE LOW. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES, THE ECMWF AND GLOBAL CANADIAN CONTROL
RUNS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT OF 0.05 TO 0.10" QPF
FIELDS OVER A 12-HR PERIOD FROM ROUGHLY TRIBUNE, KS EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD DODGE CITY. THIS QPF AXIS FITS THE 700MB FGEN
QUITE WELL, AND THUS THE OFFICIAL QPF WILL REFLECT THIS FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL CONTINUITY. NBM MEAN SNOW RATIO FIELDS HAVE SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS (SLR) PEAKING DURING THE EVENT AROUND 15 TO EVEN 16:1, THUS
0.10" QPF WOULD SUPPORT AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOWFALL. THIS
WOULD BE ABOUT THE PEAK SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER A
FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL REASONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. SINCE THERE IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER HEADLINES.
BY MIDDAY TODAY, THE EVENT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AND WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CLOUDS PART WITH SUN RETURNING. SINCE WESTERN KANSAS WILL
ONLY BE SEEING A GLANCING SHOT (AND BRIEF AT THAT!) OF ARCTIC AIR,
THE QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON
(ALONG WITH DIRECT INSOLATION) WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
UP TO MID TO UPPER 30S (WARMEST FARTHER NORTHWEST). ON TUESDAY, WE
WILL BE RIGHT BACK TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION, SO WE SHOULD EASILY SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD AS WE WILL SEE ANOTHER QUICK-
HITTING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
BE A TRANSITION PERIOD BEFORE A LARGE-SCALE JET STREAM SHIFT. THE
PATTERN SHIFT WILL COMPRISE OF A DIVING JET SOUTH DOWN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST REGION, PHASING WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. A MASSIVE RESERVOIR
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND GIVEN THE NEXT JET CORE BEING FARTHER WEST, A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THIS BRUTALLY COLD AIR MASS WILL PUSH FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. THERE IS NOW RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AS
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIR MASS. THE NBM IS MOST LIKELY NOT DONE "CATCHING UP" TO
THIS MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE AND MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR, SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY BEING CLOSE
TO THE CURRENT NBM 10TH PERCENTILE. NBM 10TH PERCENTILE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS WITH LOWS AROUND 0F SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE SOME PRETTY DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS AS THIS PUNISHING AIR
MASS MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, SO WIND CHILLS ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO APPROACH OR GO BELOW -15F (COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA). SO, ONCE WE ARE DONE WITH TODAY'S LIGHT SNOW EVENT, WE
WILL LIKELY BEGIN MESSAGING THE UPCOMING COLD EVENT (ALONG WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL) FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SO KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TAF PERIOD, LIGHT SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BAND OF LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL LARGELY AVOID THE TAF
STATIONS DDC, GCK, LBL, AND ESPECIALLY HYS. THAT BEING SAID, WE
WILL KEEP A ROUGHLY 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CATEGORY IN LIGHT
SNOW/VISIBILITY/CEILING, PARTICULARLY GCK. GIVEN THE CHALLENGE
OF BANDED SNOW PREDICTION, GCK-DDC-LBL TAF WILL NEED FURTHER
ADJUSTMENT BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE, OBSERVATION, AND HRRR
TRENDS. BY MIDDAY MONDAY, ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
(LIKELY STAYING VFR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT HYS).
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page