930
FXUS63 KDDC 291132
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 POSSIBLE.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. IN THIS AREA AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 105 TO 108 POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ON TUESDAY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO ULYSSES LINE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS BUT SOME ISOLATED
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
EARLIER THIS EVENING A DRYLINE DIVIDED SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALMOST
IN HALF. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
MODERATING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100. EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S,
YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105, WITH ISOLATED READINGS
NEAR 108F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, SUMMER HEAT REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. TODAY WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS THOSE WE HAD
ON SUNDAY. A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 850-700MB TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATE
DAY WILL BEING GREATER THAN THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AS A RESULT, HIGHS WILL BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS YESTERDAY
(SUNDAY) AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE THE
HEAT INDEX VALUES 10 TO AROUND 105 WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR STAFFORD, PRATT, AND BARBER COUNTIES WHERE THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE
WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WEST OF THE
ADVISORY AREA, LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW CRITERIA IN THOSE REGIONS.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO
TWO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL FORCING AND AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY REAL FORCING ALOFT. THE
BETTER MID LEVEL LIFT/FORCING WILL BE LOCATED NORTH/NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA LATE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AID IN LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER EVEN TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT
AT THIS TIME CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY/EVENING
STORM OR TWO.
THIS SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER
WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE LATEST 24
HOUR TREND OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD
STILL HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY, THE HEAT INDICES EAST
OF HIGHWAY 283 WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 100 AND 103
DEGREES. ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVEL HEAT INDEX READINGS HOWEVER ARE
NOT EXPECTED SO NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED.
DESPITE NOT HEAT HEADLINES...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS AND LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTDOORS.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THERE WILL BE IMPROVING LIFT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE DAY OVER THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE
HIGH CLOUD BASES MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES.
MID TO LATE WEEK, ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE
FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONGOING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED IN OR NEAR WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THESE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS,
850-700MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 95
TO 100 DEGREE RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE CONDITIONS WE
HAVE SEEN WITH PERSISTENT, FAIRLY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GIVEN THE HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA LINE, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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