288
FXUS63 KDDC 160936
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
436 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE NORTH PROMOTES ELEVATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, REDUCING WINDS AND
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE SATURDAY MORNING
- DIFFERENCE IN TIMING IS NOTED, BUT STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
EASTERN MT AND NORTHERN WY. A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, AN
ELEVATED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT, LEADING TO BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS A FEW NOTCHES OVER NBM CONSENSUS,
SO EXPECT WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SITUATES OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS,
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. AREAS WEST OF ROUTE 283 WILL HAVE A
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A HARDER, KILLING FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUTE 283
STILL HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT
GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW EMERGES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY, WITH 70S
RETURNING SUNDAY. LOWS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING, AND 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK AROUND 80 BY MID
TO LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AND
DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES BY LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GLOBALS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF A POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE LEE CYCLONE.
GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ENS
SLOWER, STRONGER, AND FARTHER SOUTH. IN EITHER CASE, SHOULD BE
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE STORM. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AMONG THE
MODELS, LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCE UNCERTAINTY. WITH THE
SWEEPING COLD FRONT GETTING WELL INTO THE GULF, ANY POTENTIAL
MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO OUR AREA MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
ACCOMPLISH. POPS ARE LOW IN THE FORECAST AS OF NOW, WITH ONLY
CHANCE CATEGORIES AROUND 30-40% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAINS LIKE WE'VE SEEN
ARE HARDER TO COME BY IN THESE TYPICALLY DRIER MONTHS.
OTHERWISE, PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS UPCOMING PATTERN
SHAKES OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD, WITH VFR/SKC PERSISTING. ELEVATED TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FRI, GUSTING 30-35 KTS 15-21Z FRI.
NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 21Z FRI. EXPECT WINDS TO
TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z SAT, AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SW KS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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