299
FXUS63 KDDC 221814
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
114 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW REACHING THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AMIDST GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH 0.5-2"
OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT RISK VIA THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
- A CALM AND COOLER WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REGULARLY IN THE
60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS HEADLINED BY A
STEEP RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RIDGE IS FLANKED ON
EITHER SIDE BY TROUGHS OVER THE COASTS INCLUDING A STRONG AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE OVER THE CWA AND CALM,
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A RESULT. THERE IS A SUBTLE
POCKET OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO INITIATING SOME WEAK
CONVECTION, BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH INTO KANSAS. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF DRY WEATHER AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INTO THE 80S. OUTSIDE OF THE SERENE
TEMPERATURES, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES, BUT THE SYSTEM MENTIONED
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHERN ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENT. FROM LATE SATURDAY TO EARLY MONDAY, CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES STAY AT 30% OR HIGHER VIA ENSEMBLES.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
INTO COLORADO. RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENT, HOWEVER. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
MINIMAL TO NONE SEVERE THREAT. EVENT TOTAL QPF IS UP TO AROUND 2-
2.25" IN OF RAIN. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CAPE IS FORECAST AND WILL
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. THAT SAID THE 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN OUT ALONG THE 24-48 HOUR EVENT WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL. THIS IS PRIMARILY
BASED OFF THE CURRENT SOLUTION THAT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
BEING SLOWER AND LATER AS A SYSTEM. THIS KEEP MOST OF THE TRAINING
OF THE RAINFALL IN COLORADO AND ALONG THE BORDER. IF THIS CONTINUES
AND IS REALIZED, MOST OF THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA. THAT SAID IF THE OUTCOME SHIFTS 50 MILES EASTWARD, THERE MAY BE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. OTHERWISE THE FLOODING WILL
LIKELY ONLY COME IN THE FORM OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. BEING THE FORECAST FOCUS, IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.
BEHIND THE EVENT, COOLER MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. OUTSIDE OF LINGERING SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY, NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH WIND OF
15-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
CALM WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH CEILINGS UNDER A HIGH
PRESSURE REGIME.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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