088
FXUS63 KDDC 152217
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON ARRIVES TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
- SOUTH WINDS QUICKLY RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF UNSEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOONS IN THE 90S.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OUTLINED THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT SO FAR
THIS YOUNG FALL SEASON, BISECTING SW KS, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 MPH BEHIND IT. THE COLD FRONT, READILY APPARENT
ON RADAR IMAGERY, WILL PASS DDC THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, AND WILL
EXIT BARBER COUNTY NO LATER THAN 7 PM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT'S
CONVERGENCE AXIS, BUT WITH THE FRONT'S RAPID MOVEMENT, ANY
STORMS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (SOUTHEAST OF A
COLDWATER-PRATT LINE) FOR A FEW HOURS 4-8 PM. WIND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BOTH BE MODEST AT BEST, BUT JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY, SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH. SPC MAINTAINS ITS MARGINAL 5% WIND
PROBABILITY FOR THESE ZONES. ELSEWHERE, COLD ADVECTION WILL
ESTABLISH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING STRATUS CLOUDS AND
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, WITH 1023 MB COOL
SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING INTO SW KS BY 7 AM WED. SUNRISE
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS,
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT QUICKLY ESTABLISHES ABOVE THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER.
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY, SYNOPTICALLY ENCOURAGED BY A STRONG TROUGH
ARRIVING IN THE GREAT BASIN, AND A POWERFUL 600 DM RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND. MOS GUIDANCE
FORECASTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHILE NBM IS WARMER
INTO THE LOWER 90S. KEPT THE WARMER GUIDANCE AS SUBSIDENCE AND
RISING HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP MOST
OF SW KS DRY, WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR GOODLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT REESTABLISHES FULLY THURSDAY, AS THE
POWERFUL RIDGE OVER THE SE US BEGINS RETROGRADING WESTWARD.
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS, STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE, WILL
FACILITATE MIXING AND ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY WARM
THROUGH THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH 100, YET AGAIN.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OF 95-100 COMMON, AND SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY, WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS WILL SEND
THE NEXT COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS, REDUCING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT, WITH NBM CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING LIKELY CATEGORY POPS CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS THEN DISSIPATE TOMORROW MORNING
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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