314
FXUS63 KDDC 200430
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHWEST KS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
70S TO MID 80S.
- THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORING OUR WESTERN ZONES.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- COOL TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HERE TO
STAY THROUGH THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOW THE DECAYING
REMNANTS OF AN ELEVATED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE LITTLE THREAT
OTHER THAN HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS IT CONTINUES
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR EQUATORWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME TODAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WILL INCH EASTWARD ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA, SUPPORTING A LONG-AWAITED BREAK
FROM THE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW/MID 70S NEAR I-70 TO THE LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER
EAST-CENTRAL CO AND WEST-CENTRAL KS, MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG AND
30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE, SUPPORTING A SEVERE
RISK WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DAYTIME MONDAY BETWEEN A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS
A RESULT, SOUTHWEST KS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BOTH OF WHICH
WILL HELP REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA AND PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUTED GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CONVOLUTED
PATTERN ELSEWHERE WILL ENGENDER A CONTINUATION OF THE COOL,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE BUSINESS WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST EACH DAY AS
THE NBM HAS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE POPS (25-54%) EVERY DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY SURROUNDING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CLOSING IN ON HYS
THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSRA AND IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VIS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KS, RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CIGS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT HYS, DDC, AND GCK.
LBL WILL LIKELY AVOID ANY FLIGHT REDUCTIONS, BUT THEY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AOB
12 KTS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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