970
FXUS63 KDDC 042207
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TUESDAY, BRINGING A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES, MUCH COOLER
NORTHWEST, MUCH HOTTER SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL
BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS OVER SW KS AND SLOWLY DISSOLVES.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR AUGUST NORMALS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE HEAT REBUILDS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 100+ BY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY DEFINED THE COLD FRONT
BISECTING SW KS, DISPLAYING DENSITY CURRENT TENDENCIES. THE COLD
FRONT WAS MAKING GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS, ALREADY REACHING
DUMAS, TEXAS AS OF 11AM, BUT THE COLD FRONT HAD ONLY REACHED
GCK AT THE SAME TIME. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWING DOWN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY HOTTER AIR AHEAD OF IT. THIS PROCESS WILL CREATE
A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE ACROSS THE DDC CWA FOR MIDSUMMER
STANDARDS, RANGING FROM LOWER 80S NORTHWEST, TO NEAR 105 NEAR
KIOWA, BARBER COUNTY. ELEVATED NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED.
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG AND NEAR
THE COLD FRONT, AND KEPT LOW POPS IN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS
ACTIVITY.
A SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TONIGHT MAY
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH LIMITED THUNDER
TONIGHT, FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST
NBM POP GRIDS. IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL EASILY THROUGH THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED, FAVORING AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF US 50 THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
A CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS PLACING THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. FORECAST GRIDS WILL CARRY ONLY
UPPER 70S ALONG I-70, RANGING TO THE UPPER 90S ADJACENT TO
OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENT THIS GRADIENT WILL EXIST, BUT PRECISE
TEMPERATURES IN BETWEEN SUCH AS DDC ARE MORE DIFFICULT.
12Z MET FORECASTS A HIGH OF 78 AT DDC WEDNESDAY, AND 12Z MAV
FORECASTS 91. A FORECAST IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCALES IS
APPROPRIATE, AND WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
NAM IS USUALLY TOO COLD, BUT IF STRATUS CAN HOLD MOST OF
THE DAY, THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WOULD VERIFY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AMID NWLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WITH IMPROVED MOISTURE. MUCH MORE
UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, WITH MORE UNIFORM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. ONE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH NBM POPS FAVORING EASTERN
ZONES WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GFS. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY HELP
STORMS ORGANIZED INTO A COMPLEX, AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE BEST
WINDOW FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FAVORING CENTRAL
KANSAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, THE FORECAST RETURNS TO DRY WITH
ANOTHER SEVERAL DAY HEATWAVE EXPECTED, AS INFLUENCE FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT DOME RIDGE INCREASES. NBM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
GRIDS SUGGEST 97-103 WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON, BUT BARRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, THE NBM IS PROBABLY
NOT HOT ENOUGH IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH THORUGH TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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