046
FXUS63 KDDC 191600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT, ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES, THE NEXT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
- VERY PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A NICE BREAK FROM THE
HEAT SUNDAY
- BOUTS OF STORM CHANCES, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK WITH WARM BUT LESS
HOT CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SEVERAL OF THE CAMS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND, DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS, LOOKS TO
FORM OFF A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OR JUST REMAIN SE OF HAYS, KANSAS.
THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND DRIFT ACROSS THE KANSAS PRAIRIE LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SECOND ROUND MAY IMPACT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS
CONCERNED, THERE IS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (30 KT) FOR WEAKER/LOWER
END SUPERCELL STRUCTURES... AND WITH AN EVENTUAL LINE OUT AS
THE STORMS DEVELOP UPSCALE. THIS IS FOR THE FIRST ROUND. THE
INITIAL THREATS OF 1-2" HAIL THEN WINDS IN THE 60 TO 70 MPH
LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST AROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. FOR
THE SECOND AROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME SMALLER HAIL, BUT BY THAT
TIME IN THE LATE EVENING, THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE MORE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN THE 50-65 MPH RANGE. COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY HIT-OR-MISS IN BOTH ROUNDS WITH HIGH VARIABLE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH TWO ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE N TO NE AND BLOW IN THE
5-20 MPH RANGE TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
DECREASING DOWN TO AROUND 10C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SUPPORT VERY PLEASANT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH VALUES
PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. TOMORROW WOULD BE A
GOOD DAY TO DO ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES/CHORES GIVEN THE NICE
BREAK FROM THE HEAT. HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE THAT BAD EITHER WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MONDAY
MORNING MIGHT BE A GOOD MORNING TO TURN OFF THE AC, AS LOWS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ZONES.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY MAJOR MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION OF MORE NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS AND LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK IN
THE 70S AND LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. THERE ALSO COULD
BE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND THEN DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE KEPT TO THE WESTERN ZONES, WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN. MORE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH BOTH HIGHS
AND LOWS INCREASING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC
FRONT THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW, HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORM
IMPACTS FOR KHYS THIS EVENING. OTHER STORM ACTIVITY MIGHT MOVE OUT
OF COLORADO DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HERE, HOWEVER, HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT LIGHT N TO NE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING
THIS PERIOD, IFR TO EVEN LIFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS
IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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