013
FXUS63 KDDC 201628
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH TUESDAY, DELIVERING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER AFTERNOONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
100+ DEGREES WILL BE COMMON. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY, WHERE THE HEAT INDEX MEETS OR
EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES.
- SW KS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST APPROACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE JULY NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A SIMPLE SUMMERTIME WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, AS STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS AND
STRENGTHENS OVER SW KS. THE ONLY IMPACT TO CONSIDER IS EXACTLY
HOW HOT THE AFTERNOONS WILL GET. NBM HAS BEEN TOO COOL NOW FOR
A FEW DAYS, RUNNING ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES BELOW REALITY.
00Z NAM MOS APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THERMAL TRENDS CORRECTLY,
WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING HEIGHTS, THICKNESS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ALL INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
597 DM IS PROJECTED NEAR DDC BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEAT CONTINUING TO BUILD. GRIDS WILL CARRY
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 AT 4 PM FOR ALL ZONES MONDAY, AND AS
HIGH AS 103-105 TUESDAY DIRECTLY UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGE'S
SUBSIDENCE. THIS SAID, SOME GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HOT TUESDAY,
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT/NELY WIND SHIFT SLIDING INTO SW KS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE THE HOTTEST GUIDANCE GIVEN
POOR MIXING AND LACK OF DOWNSLOPE. REGARDLESS, SIGNIFICANT HEAT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES NECESSARY WHERE HEAT INDICES MEET OR EXCEED 105
(GENERALLY EAST OF US 283). MAINTAINED THE INHERITED HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS
EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST BARBER COUNTY AND VICINITY
TUESDAY, PENDING THE EXPECTED NELY WIND SHIFT PROGRESS.
AFTER SEVERAL AFTERNOONS WITH A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD AND EVEN
SOME SMALL RAIN SHOWERS, SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE STRONGLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LIMITING CUMULUS AND KEEPING POPS AT/NEAR
ZERO.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALLOWS THE CENTER OF THE 597 DM RIDGE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLING NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE HEAT TO RELAX SEVERAL DEGREES, BACK
INTO THE 90S, SO A HEAT ADVISORY DOES NOT LOOK NECESSARY.
DAYLIGHT WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAVE
ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHWARD-DISPLACED RIDGE
WILL LIKELY IGNITE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX/MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS MAY REACH THE
NORTHERN ZONES, NORTH OF K-96, AS NBM POPS SUGGEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TO NEW MEXICO, WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 600 DM
OVER NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW MORE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL
MODELS AND NBM POPS SUGGEST. OTHERWISE, THE HOT AFTERNOONS
TYPICAL OF JULY WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page