125
FXUS63 KDDC 020617
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF ROUTE 283; LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
- ONE MORE DAY OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES; HOTTER FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY
WEST OF ROUTE 283. STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TRACK INTO
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THIS EVENING AFTER 21Z. WEAK FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT
WITH MUCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG AND DCAPE 1500+ J/KG, ANY STRONGER
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
AROUND QUARTER SIZE. A MRGL RISK IS MAINTAINED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH COMMON.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY MAKING A RETURN TO THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANYONE PARTAKING IN OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF THE HEAT AND STAY IN
SHADED AREAS AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY SUNDAY AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND MAY ONCE AGAIN COMMENCE LATE WEEK.
LATEST NBM POPS VARY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WIDE VARIABILITY DAY TO DAY. THEREFORE, ANY
PARTICULAR DAY OF COVERAGE AND SEVERITY CONFIDENCE IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF GCK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRACK EASTWARD TO START THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN FROM THESE
STORMS IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 21Z, BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM
DIRECT IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS, THEREFORE, LEFT OUT MENTION OF
STORMS AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS. WITH NEW DATA LATER THIS
MORNING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PERHAPS A MENTION OF STORMS
WOULD BE NEEDED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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