314  
FXUS63 KDDC 302251  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
551 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.  
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
IS SPREADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER END RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS THE SREF  
INDICATES A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING  
EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING, THEN OUT INTO THE  
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THE SYSTEM ITSELF, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECT  
OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE  
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN  
KANSAS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY CAMS AND THE LATEST HREF SHOWING A 10-30%  
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. AFTERWARD,  
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK DESPITE MEDIUM RANGE  
ENSEMBLES POINTING TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENING ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN  
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY, AND UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. IN  
RESPONSE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN WHILE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD  
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A DRIER WESTERLY  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS, PUSHING ANY PRECIP  
CHANCES MAINLY OFF TO OUR EAST.  
 
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
DOING LITTLE TO ERODE THE COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH  
PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S(F) TONIGHT WITH THE  
LATEST HREF INDICATING A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING  
BELOW 40F NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO BETTER THAN A 90%  
PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 40F ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH. MORE SEASONAL  
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY AS DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
GIVES WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLIES, DRAWING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WITH  
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP AROUND 5C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C  
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 90% PROBABILITY  
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 55F IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN  
90% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 60F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK  
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 60S(F). HIGHS WELL UP  
INTO THE 70S(F) TO POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 80S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED  
TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN WITH  
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE ALL SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE -RA  
OR VCSH, ONLY GCK HAS A LARGE ENOUGH CHANCE (>30% VIA ENSEMBLES) FOR  
AN INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS, ALL SITES WILL SEE  
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD, BUT IT IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK  
SYSTEM, THE LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WINDS STRENGTHENING AT THE  
VERY END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...KBJ  
 
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