235
FXUS63 KDDC 222212
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
512 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FAVOR THE WESTERN ZONES ADJACENT TO COLORADO, WHERE SOME MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- STRONGER SIGNAL OF A MORE WIDESPREAD COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- THE PATTERN OF NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
- A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS, RAIN CHANCES ENDING,
AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS ALL OF SW KS, WITH VERY MOIST
EASTERLY UPSLOPE BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S MCS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM). GIVEN WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST SUNSHINE
OF THE YEAR, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WET SOILS
AND EVAPORATION FROM RECENT RAINFALL MAY BE ASSISTING IN
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATED LONGER. AT ANY RATE,
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HELD WELL BELOW NORMAL, INTO
THE LOWER 80S WITH LATE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
MOST OF THE RELIABLE CAM SOLUTIONS (12Z ARW,RRFS,FV3) KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN ZONES, ADJACENT TO THE COLORADO BORDER, WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE AIR MASS OVER SW KS IS AT
MIDDAY. SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO AREAS WEST OF US 83 THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL COMMENT ON 12Z NAM
BASED SOLUTIONS SHOWING AN MCS ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WHILE THIS SOLUTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
IT WAS IGNORED FOR NOW. MODELS DO AGREE THAT STRATUS WILL EXPAND
ACROSS SW KS THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.
ASSUMING THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERTURNED BY A MORNING MCS TUESDAY
(AS NAM SUGGESTS) THERE ARE STRONGER MCS SIGNALS FOR TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SPC MAINTAINS 15%/HATCHED WIND PROBABILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA, AND WIND PROBABILITY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
PENDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
12Z ARW, A CAM THAT HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THIS ACTIVE MCS
PATTERN, SHOWS STRONG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES BY
7 PM TUESDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. ARW GAINS SOME SUPPORT FROM 12Z GFS
WITH STRONG MCS GENERATION AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SW KS TUESDAY
NIGHT. POPS IN THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY WERE MAINTAINED
TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE PROBABLE
WHEN/WHERE/IF THE MCS TRACKS.
THE PERSISTENT MCS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH 1-2 MORE MCSS PROBABLE. SW KS WILL REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ALOFT, ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG STATIONARY MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER OLD/NEW MEXICO.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW APPEARS TIMED
FOR THURSDAY, WHEN HIGHER END SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, A
STRONG WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. THE INCREASING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A STRONG DRYLINE, BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED
DESPITE HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. THE DRY FORECAST
FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA AND CIGS HAVE INCREASED.
HOWEVER, INTO THIS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AGAIN TO IFR CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS
OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS, BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW UNTIL THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOMES BETTER FORECAST. FOR NOW, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED. INTO
TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
WITH STORM CHANCES REEMERGING, BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD FOR NOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...BENNETT
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