745
FXUS63 KDDC 060949
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
449 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, MIXED AT TIMES WITH
SLEET OR SNOW NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE (28-32) EXPECTED.
- A VERY RAPID WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK TO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE AND LIFT UPSTREAM OF IT WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING AND
TAPERING AS THE DAY CONTINUES. RIGHT NOW THE MOST UPDATED NBM
FORECAST IS PROGGING 0.20" TO 0.30" FOR ELKHART, DODGE CITY, AND
HAYS. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA, NBM IS PROGGING 0.50" AND
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR SYRACUSE, GARDEN CITY, AND SCOTT CITY. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT WINTERY
MIX FOR HAMILTON AND SCOTT COUNTIES AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1". THE GROUND SHOW BE PLENTY WARM
AND MAINLY WET FROM RAIN, SO SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AS THIS TIME. OTHERWISE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COLD AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, A WEAK SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE FA.
THERE WILL BE A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. FEEL THAT THE LATEST NBM MAY BE RUNNING ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH THIS LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND. HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF A FREEZE FOR THE FAR WESTERN NEAR COLORADO
COUNTIES. HAVE UPGRADED THESE 3 COUNTIES TO A FREEZE WARNING.
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST WITH THE DOWNSLOPING SW WIND
IN THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, WILL BE KEEPING THE REMAIN COUNTIES
IN A FREEZE WATCH ATTM.
WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS
SHOW NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS INFLUENCING OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH VALUES PEAKING IN
THE 70S. 80S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. A DRY FROPA IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL BE A WEAK WIND
SHIFT AND A COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY. THE NBM HAS
LOW POPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY EVENING FOR STORMS.
CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS LOW ON THIS, AS BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. BEYOND THIS, LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
MEMBERS SHOW A RATHER WARM BUSINESS WEEK NEXT WEEK AND MAINLY A
DRY FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
18Z WED, WITH IFR STRATUS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN LIGHT RAIN,
BR/DZ. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF GCK. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
EXPECTED. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
00Z THU, WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL AIRPORTS, AND VFR/SKC
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-062>064-075>078-085>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ061-074-084.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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