876
FXUS63 KDDC 222200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORKWEEK
- WARMING TREND MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOLDOWN AND STRONG
WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
17Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH HAS DAMPENED THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SHIFTED THE CENTER BACK TO THE WEST. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH POST FRONTAL
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE SHOULD SEE
WINDS RELAX TO 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER WINDS WE SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A COOLER DAY AS WELL WITH THE RESIDUAL COOLER AIR
HANGING AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD FLIP BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO WIND SPEEDS FROM
HIGHWAY 83 ON WEST SHOULD INTENSIFY TO 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
THROUGH THE MID WEEK THE MEDIUM TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT THE
POLAR JET STREAM BACK UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE SHOULD ALSO
HAVE THE RETURN OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLES HAVE ANOTHER DIP IN THE POLAR JET
WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE DAY. POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG WITH THE GOOD MIXING
AND WE COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH WITH
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 40 MPH WIND GUSTS AT 10-20% AT
THIS TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE QPF
FORECAST CONTINUE TO KEEP QPF NUMBERS AROUND 0.00 THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST THE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 0% FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND 10 KT BY DUSK. A CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO THE EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH,
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH 10-20 KT AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-045-
046-064>066-075>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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