043
FXUS63 KDDC 111017
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
517 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN KS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING ARE MOVING EASTWARD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RAPIDLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DAYTIME SATURDAY, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STAY NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
- LONG TERM TREND IS BLEAK FOR ANY NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST JULY 24.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE FRIDAY EVENING SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SUB-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS CROSSED INTO WESTERN KS AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS THAN 25
KTS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. THIS COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT HREF MEMBERS WHICH
FORECAST ALL CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE BY 09Z, IF NOT BEFORE. THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT AND BUILD
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MODELS ONLY SHOW 1-2 DEGREES C OF WARMING AT 850-
MB. WITH LINGERING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS, THE END RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER NORTH AND BECOMING FIXED IN PLACE
ATOP THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. WHILE
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, THE BAD NEWS IS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW (<10%). AND THIS TREND PERSISTS
BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS DEPICT RIDGING
OUT WEST THROUGH AT LEAST JULY 24, SO SOUTHWEST KS IS STARING DOWN A
PROLONGED DRY STRETCH WHICH WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BECOMING EASTERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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