890
FXUS63 KDDC 132219
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY.
- A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A 500MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLIER TODAY WITH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
UPPER HIGH. DESPITE THE CENTER OF THIS UPPER HIGH BEING LOCATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, THE 500MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REMAIN ABOVE THE 95% OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. EASTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT AT THE 700 AND 500MB LEVELS, WHILE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE OBSERVED BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL. THESE
WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WERE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY INDICATING LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE (PLUS OR MINUS
A DEGREE OR TWO). AS A RESULT THE HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AROUND 90 DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW LITTLE CHANCE IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEY KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z EACH DAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S, WHICH IS BETWEEN 50 AND 70% OF CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE LIMITED MIXING DEPTH FORECAST BY THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUES FAVOR HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER BUT STILL
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
GREATER THAN 80% IN THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND SMALL SPREAD IN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES IN
THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE
UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP/RETROGRADE IT INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FAVORS A WARMING TREND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE MEAN 850MB
TEMPERATURES TREND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM ALL THE ENSEMBLES
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE
HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE STILLS SHOW A
30-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS OF 1000 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET WITH NO IMPACTS AS
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF
LARGE SUMMER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR WIND SHIFT THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD GIVEN LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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