867
FXUS63 KDDC 021645
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED HAIL.
- CHANCE FOR ONGOING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- PERSISTENT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH ALMOST DAILY RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY (ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS). ALSO
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY 850-700MB MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS OCCURRING
WHICH RESULTED IN MORNING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. AS OF 11AM THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ENDING BUT CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP POTENTIAL AND THIS WILL NOT ONLY
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BUT MAY ALSO
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. STILL HAVING SAID THIS MODELS
CONDITION TO INDICATE AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURRING OVER PARTS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND LATEST SATELLITE
SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION. THIS CLEARING WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE DAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS TODAY REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOPING
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP GIVEN
WEAK/NO CAP IN PLACE AND MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING ALONG AND
NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/KANSAS BORDER. FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE DAY/EVENING AS COOLER
500MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN
THE ONGOING 850-700MB FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH MOISTURE BEING PRESENT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT NOW APPEARS
TO BE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO TERRAIN WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS LOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND THAT RAINFALL LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA LONGER EARLIER
TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S. DESPITE MODEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS, COOLING 500MB TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZED HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
MARGINAL HAIL, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK.
ON WEDNESDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT (IVT/850-700MB FLOW)
WILL PERSIST AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF NORTHWARD. THIS DEEP MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INDICATING A MINIMUM 5% PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. SLOW STORM MOTION AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESULT IN VERY INTENSE LOCAL
RAIN RATES, MAKING LOW LYING ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND URBAN
LOCATIONS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE
NO WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE REQUIRED IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS HEAVY RAINFALL TREND.
LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALMOST EACH DAY. WHILE WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY STILL LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN SHIFTS TO WIDESPREAD CUMULATIVE RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY (>60%) FOR TOTALS
EXCEEDING 1.00 INCH EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE CEILINGS
TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE 3000 TO 6000 FT AGL RANGE
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THIS, THERE IS A 50-75% PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR LIBERAL FROM 02Z TO 09Z, AND FOR GARDEN CITY
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z WEDNESDAY. DODGE CITY WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. THESE STORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS HAYS
FROM 06Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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