416
FXUS63 KDDC 262205
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO A ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
NEAR 100 TO 103 BEING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
EARLY MORNING WEAKENING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST KANSAS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF NOON TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
THIS COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS MORE SLOWLY THAN
WHAT MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLOWER SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT, THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SLOWER SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT IS THAT TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT YESTERDAY. MODELS HOWEVER STILL ADVERTISE THAT SOME
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO INDICATED
AT 50-70% CHANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO BE BELOW 90S DEGREES
NORTH OF US-54 .
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT (50 TO NEAR 80%) AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
EMBEDDED IN THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS
GIVEN THE MOISTURE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FORCING THAT WILL
BE PRESENT JUST NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO NEAR 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND THE 500MB HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITES STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL WILL RESULT IN BACKING WINDS WHICH
WILL IMPROVE THE WESTERN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
THAT BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES THEN THE
850MB MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THIS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS WILL EASILY SUPPORT THE CURRENT NBM
FORECAST WITH HIGHS OF NEAR 100 TO 103 BEING POSSIBLE, THOUGH
TEMPERATURE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARM GIVEN THE RECENT NBM
HIGH TEMPERATURE COOL BIAS DURING THE LAST HEAT EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF KGCK,
KLBL, AND KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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