806
FXUS63 KDDC 071333
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
..UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FEEL THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE
BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER FOR A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS SUCH, HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHED SHOT AT ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE SOME GUSTY, POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WINDS. AGAIN,
IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER IN
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM MUCH EARLIER. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY HOT WITH VALUE MAINLY IN THE 90S. AROUND 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA IN COMBINATION OF THE HOTTER HIGHS MAY RESULT
IN ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR STAFFORD, PRATT, AND BARBER COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS HEAT THREAT. IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THIS AREA, BE SURE TO TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS AND KEEP HYDRATED. OTHER THAN THE ALREADY MENTIONED
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS, THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET. MINIMUMS
WILL REMAIN NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MIX OF 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. HIGHS IN THE 90S. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE RATON MESA AND MAY IMPACT EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE FA
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY. ON SATURDAY, A 500-HPA RIDGE STARTS
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A DRY FORECAST AND HOTTER HIGHS. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO PLANT ITSELF
OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE NET RESULT IS EVEN HOTTER
HIGHS AND A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY DAMPEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OVERALL
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE SLIGHT THOUGH, WITH STILL SEASONABLY HOT HIGHS
AND A DRY FORECAST. EVENTUALLY, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY START
TO WORK SOUTHWARD SOME OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE
MIGHT BE SOME STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE
THOUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. THE NBM POPS ARE FINE
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE TAFS THROUGH THE PD. SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THERE
MIGHT BE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 94 70 94 68 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 92 68 94 66 / 20 20 10 20
EHA 90 68 95 67 / 20 20 10 30
LBL 96 70 96 68 / 20 20 10 20
HYS 92 69 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
P28 100 73 96 71 / 20 20 10 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ066-081-090.
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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