806
FXUS63 KDDC 151856
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
- COOL AND WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH BELOW
FREEZING READINGS AND LIGHTER WINDS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15-30 MPH. THERE
MAY BE A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING. HIGHS IN THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS AND LOWER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUS, A FREEZE
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF BARBER COUNTY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED; AND THIS WARMUP
WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED
TO APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY; BUT GIVEN THE LACK
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE, RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 80 BY THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE WILL BE A VERY SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN USA, RESULTING IN LEE TROUGHING AND
SOUTH WINDS. HOWEVER, THE RICH MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH
PLAINS. BUT EVEN THEN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RICH
MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THAT THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH NO
SOURCE FOR COLD AIR INITIALLY, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ENOUGH
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE
SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND COLDER AIR DOES PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF IT, THEN RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHER; BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY SCENARIO. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE
ON RAIN CHANCES SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. AND WE
ARE GETTING TO THAT DRY TIME OF YEAR WHEN A SPECIAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS REQUIRED FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
IS DUE TO THE STRONGER WESTERLY MOMENTUM ACROSS THE ROCKIES
THAT TENDS TO SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF HERE. PROBABILITY
WISE, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE INDICATES ONLY 10-25% CHANCES FOR .5"
OR GREATER OF RAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN
CIGS RISING AND CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF 15-20 KT NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE LULL LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME MIXING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>089.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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