162  
FXUS63 KDDC 202249  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
449 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
A QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING  
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES TONIGHT, AND  
FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE PERIOD, A  
COLD/DRY AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS  
CAPPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS PREVAILING CLEAR  
SKIES, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS(F) BY EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING. A FEW LOWER 20S(F) MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS  
WITH LESS SNOWPACK. DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN  
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY RESULTING IN MODERATELY GUSTY SOUTH-  
SOUTHWEST WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LATE  
WINTER SUN ANGLE INCREASING INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MELT  
A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY DURING THE DAY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
DOWN SOMEWHAT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS GENERALLY INTO THE 40S(S) FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOWER/MID 50S(F) MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH  
LESS SNOW COVERAGE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS  
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING A CLOSED  
UPPER LOW TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT, STAGING A STRONG AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE HELP  
OF MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD  
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECT OUT  
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING LIKELY  
TEMPERATURES AND THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, PRIMARILY  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER MIX GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS TO THE  
NORTH/NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING WEST CENTRAL KANSAS,  
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. A SWITCHOVER TO A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MORE FINITE DETAILS OF THE  
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE STORM SHOULD COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE  
NEXT DAY OR SO.  
 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A PREVAILING  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES MAY POSE MORE OF A CHALLENGE SUNDAY DEPENDING  
ON THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN  
KANSAS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND, NOT TO MENTION INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF RAIN ABOUT. SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS NEAR  
TO ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 449 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO SW KS, WITH VFR/SKC  
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A  
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO OKLAHOMA  
OVERNIGHT, LIGHT SW WINDS OF 8-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
AFTER 15Z FRI, EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING  
27-30 KTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 13 47 27 57 / 0 0 0 0  
GCK 14 46 24 58 / 0 0 0 0  
EHA 18 53 28 60 / 0 0 0 0  
LBL 15 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0  
HYS 16 48 25 58 / 0 0 0 0  
P28 17 47 29 58 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...TURNER  
 
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