491
FXUS63 KDDC 191115
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ALONG IMMEDIATE KS/CO BORDER
- WARMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
TODAY WILL BE QUITE THE CONTRAST FROM YESTERDAY WHEN WE WERE
EXPERIENCING VERY STRONG WINDS AND A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. HOWEVER, WHILE NOT AS WINDY, PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ARE EXPECTED BE 30-40
MPH AT TIMES AS A RESULT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20% RANGE, LIMITING THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN THERE.
FARTHER WEST WILL BE THE OPPOSITE, MUCH LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BUT GENERALLY WEAKER WINDS OVERALL. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF AN OVERLAP OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20%
AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 20 MPH IS ABOUT 30-50% IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF HAMILTON, STANTON, AND MORTON COUNTIES. WHILE THESE
VALUES ARE LESS THAN RED FLAG CRITERIA, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING
PERHAPS MOMENTS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS IN THOSE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, OUTDOOR BURNING AND ANY ACTIVITIES THAT
COULD LEAD TO A SPARK IS DISCOURAGED. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES EAST TO WEST WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 70S (SLIGHT CHANCE TO APPROACH 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER).
THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE HOLIDAY. GEFS AND ENS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +20 TO +25 DAM BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
CORRELATE TO A PROLONGED STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS. AS MUCH AS
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING
PROBABLE. ENS/GEFS/GEPS GRAND ENSEMBLE IS INTRODUCING GREATER
THAN 30% PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
THINK THOSE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AS WE NEAR. POPS REMAIN
NEARLY NONEXISTENT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY, SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THIS
EVENING AND TURN WESTERLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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