974
FXUS63 KDDC 120416
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1116 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY
- STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
- STRONG FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.
SOME MINOR GOOD NEWS IS THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE
IN THE 40S TO 50S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ENJOY THE WARM BUT LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT, SEVERAL CAMS SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE RATON MESA. THESE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EVENING. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS. HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE ELKHART
TO LIBERAL AREAS. FOR TONIGHT, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY ENSUE WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER LOWS WITH MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE
60S.
FOR SATURDAY, A FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. IT IS
UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE RETURNING
SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. THEREFORE, THERE
WILL BE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN HIGHS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. IN ADDITION, AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE ALL OVER PLACE WITH
FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT PLACEMENT OF STORMS, SO THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THERE SEEMS, THOUGH,
THERE MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO
SEE THE MOST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS. FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P'S DO
SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY OF STORM THREATS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY, DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS
AND A COOLER AIR MASS IN ITS PLACE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT WITH VALUES ONLY PEAKING IN THE 70S ALONG WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY. BEYOND SUNDAY, THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW
MONDAY TO SPARK OFF ISOLATED STORMS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PLEASANT WITH 70S. FOR THE REST OF THE BUSINESS WEEK, MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOW INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WITH A BROAD RIDGE WEST OF THE FA. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION
OF A DRIER FORECAST AND WARM TO HOT HIGHS AND MILD LOWS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SSE 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AS THE DAY CONTINUES. TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
TSRA IMPACTING KLBL THIS EVENING. HAVE A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT OTHER TERMINALS,
BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE AND TRENDS
BECOME MORE CLEAR IN LATER TAFS AND WEATHER MODELS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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