172
FXUS63 KDDC 231116
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH TWO
ROUNDS OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF K-23
CORRIDOR AS THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING GREATER THAN 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WIDESPREAD WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON STARTS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -20
AND SUB ZERO MORNING LOWS SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
MORNINGS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
08Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES WITH SPLIT FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS PUMPING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
IS ENTERING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE 850 MB TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO -
15 (C) WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO NEBRASKA AND THE
DAKOTAS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
AID THE COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH KANSAS TODAY.
THERE ARE TWO FACETS OF THE WEEKEND STORM THAT WILL BRING IMPACTFUL
WEATHER TO THE REGION...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND THE ARCTIC AIR.
THIS PARAGRAPH WILL OUTLINE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND SETUP WHILE THE
NEXT PARAGRAPH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE ARCTIC AIR. FOR THE SNOW MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE DAY THE BETTER LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOESN'T START TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AFTER THE NOON
HOUR AND STARTING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. THROUGH THE
MORNING SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283 BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT'S REALLY AFTER 4 PM
THE LIFT IN THE 850-700 MB ZONE INTENSIFIES AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS
OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AFTER SUNSET. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 850
TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -16 TO -20 (C)...THE COLD AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY. NBM
FORECAST SLR IS NOW IN THE 18 TO 20:1 RANGE. OF NOTE THE WIND
FORECAST WITH THIS EVENT HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIME WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING...HOWEVER AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL DECREASE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2-5 INCHES ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 283. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ONLY PERIODIC LIGHTER POCKETS OF SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST SECOND
ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE IN KANSAS AND
ESPECIALLY INTO OKLAHOMA THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE LESS OF AN
IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO THE BETTER 850-700 MB LIFT WITH
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRENDING TO THE SOUTH WHICH WOULD GIVE THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE US 56 CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM ASHLAND TO PRATT ON
SOUTH. THIS SECOND ROUND OF SNOW IS THE WILD CARD ON IF WE CAN
REALLY PILE UP THE TOTALS FROM DODGE CITY ON SOUTHEAST AND THAT IS
WHY THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW (GREATER THAN 60%). MODELS ARE TRENDING WITH THE
ENDING OF THE LIFT AND DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS COMING IN
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE END OF THE SNOW EVENT.
THE COLD AIR EVENT WILL LIKELY BE FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
FORECAST AIR TEMPERATURE WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE
AROUND -15 TO -20 (C) AT 850 MB COMBINING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND
CLOUDY SKIES THIS WILL BE A RECIPE FOR BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS. I WENT WITH COLDER NBM SOLUTIONS FOR MAX AND MIN T
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THE COLDEST AIR TEMPERATURES
COULD BE MONDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHTEN. OVERALL
SUBZERO LOWS ARE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY
MORNINGS (70-90% ALL THREE MORNINGS). A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AS THE FORECAST GETS CLOSER TO THAT EVENT.
WESTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD START TO SLOWLY EJECT THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS OUT OF KANSAS AND A MODEST WARMING TREND COULD START TUESDAY.
WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE THE SNOW ON THE GROUND KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AND AT THIS TIME NO
MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE APPEARING IN THE LONG TERM ENSEMBLES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND LARGE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 09-12Z WITH
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS DROPPING THE CEILINGS TO MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-21Z
THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3 SM OR BELOW
ALONG WITH WINDS BEING SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
THE SNOW COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z FOR ALL THE TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z WE WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBS
OF IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AS THE MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVIER SNOWBANDS COULD REDUCE THE VIS TO 1 SM OR BELOW THROUGH
06Z.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL STAY
THIS STRONG THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL DROP CEILINGS TO
MVFR THROUGH 15Z. SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 12-21Z THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO
3 SM OR BELOW DUE TO THE WIND BLOWING THE SNOW AROUND. SNOW
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS. AFTER 00Z WE WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBS OF IFR TO
LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AS THE MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVIER
SNOWBANDS COULD REDUCE THE VIS TO 1 SM OR BELOW THROUGH 12Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-
084>086.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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