833
FXUS63 KDDC 270500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
OFFERING SOME POTENTIAL DROUGHT RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS ARRIVING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND SW KS
AS OF MIDNIGHT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS FORCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SHORTWAVE IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT KINEMATICS AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE INTRUSION OF COLD/STABLE AIR AND STRATUS
EARLIER ON SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT, AND REDUCED THE SEVERE THREAT OVER SW KS GREATLY.
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH TONIGHT, AND WINDS WILL
TREND NORTHWEST THROUGH MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST.
STRATUS AND DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, BEFORE SUBSIDENCE CLEARS
THE SKY AND DELIVERS A PLEASANT SPRING DAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE
SUNSHINE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR
LATE APRIL NORMALS.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO NEAR 1020 MB OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SURFACE WINDS
TRENDING NORTHEAST. TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH
00Z NAM REDUCING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WELL LESS THAN 10C.
00Z MET FORECASTS A HIGH OF 54 AT DDC TUESDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY
TOO COLD GIVEN EXPECTED SUNSHINE. NBM IS REASONABLE, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FURTHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS, FORCING SUNRISE TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL, WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. NBM FORECASTED MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S, AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. DAMAGING FREEZES TO
VEGETATION ( < 28) ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY, AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY THROUGH 7 PM.
MODELS SUGGEST A BROAD OVERRUNNING, WARM ADVECTION PATTERN,
ABOVE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
CYCLONE NEAR ARIZONA BY 7 PM THURSDAY, WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASING/MAINTAINED INTO FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE ARRIVES IN NEW
MEXICO. NBM POPS DURING THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME ARE ALREADY
VERY HIGH, INTO THE LIKELY/DEFINITE CATEGORY (60-80%), AND ARE
FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE DROUGHT IS THE MOST
SEVERE, AND WHERE THEY NEED RAIN THE MOST. MUCH OF SW KS HAS
BEEN UNUSUALLY DRY FOR QUITE SOME TIME, BUT MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE OF A MORE FAVORABLE, MORE SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK, THAT
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SPREADING WIDESPREAD OR STRATIFORM RAIN
INTO SW KS. THIS WILL NOT BE A SEVERE WEATHER OR CONVECTIVE
SETUP, RATHER A BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL WITH LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY. NBM PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE QPF (>0.01 INCH) IS
ALREADY 70-90%, FOCUSED ON THESE WESTERN ZONES, FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME DROUGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE AT HYS, AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO
INCLUDE DDC/GCK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT CEILINGS
HIGHER AT LBL THIS UPDATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR HYS AND EAST OF DDC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AFTER 15Z MON, WITH VFR RETURNING
TO ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
CURRENTLY WILL TREND NWLY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES. NW WIND GUSTS OF 22-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z MON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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