656
FXUS63 KDDC 161019
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK WARMUP IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT IS AHEAD,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID/UPPER 90S BY
THURSDAY.
- FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEARS PROBABLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD SURROUNDING SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOW MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER DIXIE ALLEY AND A TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ARE SPREAD OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS, WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL YIELD WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE COOL AIR WILL NOT BE HERE TO STAY AS A LEE
CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO/WY DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL RENEW SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND COMBINE WITH GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW SMALL AREAS OF MID-
80S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR I-70 WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALSO
BE MUTED/NON-EXISTENT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS ALL AREAS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EAST
COAST, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LOITERING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IN NORTHEAST CO,
ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KS TO ACQUIRE A WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG WITH STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION WILL ENGENDER AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID/UPPER
90S, WITH SOME LOW 100S POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RED HILLS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY OBTAIN SOME EASTERLY MOMENTUM
AND SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK,
BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN THE PROCESS. AS THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION UNFOLDS, SOUTHWEST KS WILL AT LONG LAST ENJOY THE
FIRST PROLONGED COOLDOWN OF THE FALL SEASON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. NBM
HIGHS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY COOL FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INTO THE MID
70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY, AND STAY IN THAT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH IN PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE COLD
FROPA AS NBM POPS IN THE LIKELY (55-74%) AND DEFINITE (75-100%)
CATEGORIES EXIST FOR NEARLY ALL ZONES EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KGCK, KDDC, AND KHYS AS WELL AS MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IMPROVING
TO VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY AFTER 15-17Z AS PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BEGINS TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY/MID-
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY ARE EXPECTED
TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20KT AFTER 17-19Z AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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