780
FXUS63 KDDC 162201
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
501 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
ISOLATE SHOWERS (10% OR LESS) WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGHS NEAR 100 WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO NEAR 105 IN A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20%) WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER WEST TEXAS.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MOISTURE AND SUBTLE WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS TEXAS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SMALL CHANCE (<10%) FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, MANLY NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
FRIDAY GIVEN THE FORECAST LOCATION OF A 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM
NEAR 90 TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR 25C. GIVEN THIS WARMING
TREND ALONG WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS THAN 5F SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES, THE CURRENT FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY
(THURSDAY) AND THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEING 3-5F WARMER.
AN ANOMALOUS 594DM 500MB HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH. AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A WEDGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR (850MB TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY) WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES. THIS COLD FRONT
IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WHERE IT
WILL BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BECAUSE THE WEDGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL MONDAY,
HIGHS NEAR 100 ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIGHS
NEAR 100 ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THESE TEMPERATURES, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES POTENTIAL REACHING 100 TO NEAR 105. THESE HIGHEST
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PRIMARILY BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAIN
LOW (20%) REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND THE TIMING OF ANY OF THE EMBEDDED UPPER WAVES THAT WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HAS MADE IT
UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
(IN/NEAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS) DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS IT
CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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