008
FXUS63 KDDC 222211
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND LATER TONIGHT
ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE.
- WARMER WEATHER IS PREDICTED MY MID WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
NON SEVERE T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN 60F DEWPOINTS AND -14C COLD
POCKET AT 500MB. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL LIMIT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ROLL
EASTWARD FROM THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY,
WITH MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK SO THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE T-STORMS
ARE NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER, ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN REASONABLY COLD AIR AT MID LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY,
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS INDICATE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEAK, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO EJECT A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE PLAINS. A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHILE
A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN DRYING BY THURSDAY. THERE IS
HIGH VARIANCE AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BETWEEN
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN REGARDS TO RAIN AMOUNTS. THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING
KANSAS, WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN ARE LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
IN GENERAL VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND WINDS 12 KTS OR LESS FOR ALL
THE TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LBL
FROM 06Z-09Z SATURDAY AND THEN AROUND GCK, DDC AND LBL BETWEEN
13-18Z. SHOULD ANY RAIN GO OVER A TERMINAL CLOUD CEILINGS COULD FALL
TO MVFR CATEGORY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TATRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page