007
FXUS63 KDDC 190650
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- AFTER ANOTHER TEMPERATE DAY TODAY, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY,
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING. DESPITE THE
LATE JUNE INSOLATION, CLOUDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING. BUT
EXPECT SOME BREAKS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER AND MID 80S (COOLEST READINGS FROM DODGE CITY
SOUTHWARD). LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE LESS SUN MAY NOT GET ABOVE
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. T-STORMS MAY FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO BRING THESE INTO
KANSAS THIS EVENING SO THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE HIGHLY
UNLIKELY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. A MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. STRONG INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. MUCH STRONGER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON T-STORMS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES (NORTH SIDES OF RATON MESA AND PALMER DIVIDE) TO
PROGRESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING. THE MOST ORGANIZED
T-STORMS WILL BE FROM I-70 NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SUNDAY'S WEATHER HINGES ON HOW MUCH COOL OUTFLOW IS GENERATED BY
SATURDAY NIGHT'S STORMS AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COOL AIR
PROGRESSES. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND A 700MB THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF KANSAS EVEN INTO MONDAY; BUT WITH RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB (+10C) AND STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR
MASS, T-STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND PROGRESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS
GIVEN THE MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE WESTERLIES.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL EXIST, ALONG WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY. THIS IS A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR SUMMER TIME
SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OF COURSE, WE
ARE ARRIVING AT THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
MARGINAL DESPITE AMPLE BULK SHEAR AND CAPE. THUS, TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW EXCEPT FOR ANY ISOLATED EVENTS ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THUS, T-STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE END OF JUNE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE MOVE INTO
JULY; BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW DOMINANT ANY RIDGING WILL
BE.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS VERY HIGH
PROBABILITIES (50-90%) OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN, WITH THE VERY
HIGHEST CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS THE RESULT OF
MULTIPLE EVENTS AFFECTING DIFFERENT AREAS FROM DAY TO DAY. TO
GIVE SOME IDEA OF MAXIMUM RAIN POTENTIAL, THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
TOTAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK PER GRAND ENSEMBLE IS 2 TO 3" IN
CENTRAL KANSAS AND 1-2" ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUS, IT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS AND MODEST
AMOUNTS IN OTHERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING A MOIST AIR MASS NORTHWARD
TODAY, RESULTING IN CIGS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 12-18Z (ESPECIALLY AT KDDC AND KGCK). IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW FAST CIGS WILL RISE/ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING, IF
AT ALL. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY 15-17Z AS
A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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