064
FXUS63 KDDC 291022
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
522 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED FOR MARCH 29TH AND 30TH; HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 90S
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
- NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS LATE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE PATTERN SHIFT AND
LIGHT RAIN AGAIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE CWA AND PREVENTING LOWS FROM REACHING FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HELPING PUSH SUNDAY HIGHS BACK NEAR THE 90S ACROSS ALL OF SW KANSAS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT IMPACTFUL
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE NEARLY ENTIRELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. WITH THE INJECTION OF HOT, DRY AIR SUNDAY,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN TO 7% IN FAR SW
KANSAS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER INTO THE AFTERNOON TO QUELL MOST
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-16Z SHIFTING WINDS AND
WEAKENING THEM CONSIDERABLY. THROUGH THE LOWER HUMIDITIES, A WEAK NW
WIND OF 5-10 MPH IS FORECAST.
MONDAY IS FORECAST TO BE AN EVEN WARMER DAY WITH THE 850 MB LAYER
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW-TO-MID 90 DEGREE HIGHS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY SEE MODEST 10-15 MPH WINDS
CREATING ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CENTRAL KANSAS IS
FORECASTING STRONGER WINDS, BUT IT CORRELATES WELL WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ENSEMBLE RUNS HINTED AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CHANGING THE PATTERN MID-WEEK INTO TUESDAY. MOST OF THAT UPPER-LEVEL
SIGNAL IS GONE IN CURRENT RUNS, BUT A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PROGGED. THE COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM REACHING
HIGHS AS SEEN MONDAY, AND INSTEAD PRIMARILY IN THE 60/70S.
ADDITIONALLY BEHIND THE FRONT, ENSEMBLES HAVE WIDESPREAD BENIGN
SHOWERS WITH AROUND A 10% FOR LIGHTNING. CHANCES AND LOCATION OF THE
RAINFALL HAVE BEEN QUITE VOLATILE IN THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT MEANS
REMAIN VERY LOW BELOW <0.05". SEEMINGLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
MORE CLARITY WILL COME AS TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY DECREASES. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CAA AND CLOUD COVER
COMBATING DIURNAL HEATING.
THE REST OF THE WEEK HAS CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL AT
60/70 DEGREES. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FINALLY
EXPECTED WITH A WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS
AND DEPICTED BY LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE, BUT CHANCES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN
THE MIDWEEK FORECAST. MORE DETAILS WILL COME WHEN THE SYSTEM IS
BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WASHING OUT
THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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