031
FXUS63 KDDC 221620
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD LATE WEEK.
WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR TOTALS RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 7PM THURSDAY
TO BE GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH. WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS CHANCE
FOR 1/2 INCH RAINFALL INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 85 PERCENT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING, ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE FURTHER WEST OUR NEXT UPPER
LOW WAS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CROSSES
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY (TUESDAY) AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP
AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL BRING IMPROVING GULF MOISTURE RETURN
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BASED ON THE LATEST IVT MID WEEK AND INCREASING PWAT
VALUES. BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE PWATS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THE COMBINATION
OF THE ENHANCED LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND IMPROVING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND
IMPROVING LIFT. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEEK AT THIS
TIME APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE WEEK. ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
CONTINUE TO PLACE THE THE HIGHER 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING
AT 7PM THURSDAY WEST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL LINE
WITH GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE
GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE THERE IS A 80 TO NEAR
95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH.
BASED ON THIS LATEST RAINFALL FORECAST THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
183 AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS CURRENTLY A GREATER
THAN 60% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAT 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.
THE AREA OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN COLORADO MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WEEKEND WARMUP AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 95 DEGREES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LINGERING IFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY AFTER 18-20Z AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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