127
FXUS63 KDDC 212200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE THREAT ON SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO THE WINDS AND DRY
FUELS
- LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
17Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE 591 DM HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A LARGE
AREA OF 23-25 (C) 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE ADVERTISED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AS WE HAVE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR
AND EVEN 90 DEGREES REPORTED AT HUGOTON. IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW IS SPREADING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS.
SUNDAY IS POISED TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. POST FRONTAL 850 MB WINDS BETWEEN SUNRISE AND THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND WITH DIURNAL
HEATING HELPING TO BETTER MIX THE LOWER LEVELS WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WE
SHOULD ALSO HAVE A 20-25 DEGREE COOLDOWN IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND REDUCED SUN DUE TO SOME HIGHER AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST MAINLY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND
VERY DRY FUELS AS FORECAST LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
IN THE 25-35% RANGE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST THAT COULD DROP TO NEAR 15%.
SUNDAY NIGHT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THIS SHOULD RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL CALM. WITH
THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH THE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OUR MINT
VALUES SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S.
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE TRENDS KEEP US IN A DRY REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BUILD BACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE MID WEEK. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THE RETURN OF 90+ DEGREE HIGHS IS IN STORE AS NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MAXT OVER 90 DEGREES IS 70-90% ON WEDNESDAY AND 50-
70% ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER EXPECTED COOL DOWN WITH GUSTY WINDS IS
TRENDING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5-10 KT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH BY DUSK. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR FOR KDDC/KHYS. A FROPA IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE 10Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. NORTH WINDS WILL BLOW STRONG
20-30 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S RISK IT WILL BE THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING TO BELOW 10% COMBINING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SUNDAY'S RISK WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT 20-30% BUT
GIVEN THE WINDS AND DRY FUELS THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ031-045-
046-064>066-075>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SUGDEN
FIRE WEATHER...TATRO
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