125
FXUS63 KDDC 111857
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- THERE ARE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR T-STORMS FROM
LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY, SERVING
TO DELAY THE NEXT HOT SPELL BY A DAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
HEAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE NEAR 100 BOTH DAYS; AND THESE COULD BE
TIED OR BROKEN. IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER (BUT MORE HUMID) NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE KS/OK STATE LINE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, T-STORM
CHANCES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN IS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS, INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS HAYS, LARNED AND LA
CROSSE. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE PATTERN, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE STILL
SHOWS ONLY MODEST (30-40%) CHANCES FOR .5" OR GREATER OF RAIN,
EVEN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
PAST WEEK, MUCH LARGER RAIN AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR WHEN SEVERAL
T-STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA, WITH MUCH SMALLER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SOUTH WINDS AT 15 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 00Z. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT OR NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 12 KTS DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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