197
FXUS63 KDDC 232249
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
449 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON
- FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE
- NEXT WEEKEND PATTERN FAVORS COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
20Z RADAR AND SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH GRADUALLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM 7-9 PM. WITH THE RATHER QUICK
PACE OF THE RAIN, ONLY LIGHT STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10-0.25" RANGE.
INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION, ANOTHER LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING OF AREAS OF FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF THIS OUTCOME.
HOWEVER, SIMILARLY TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS, FOG IS LIKELY TO BE
PATCHY WITH ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, WITH NBM SHOWING ONLY 10-20% CHANCE
OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR DENSE FOG HEADLINES, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
THE NEED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN WESTERN ZONES.
WE REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE WORKWEEK. ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE COMPLEX PATTERN EMERGING. COLDER ARCTIC AIR IS
GROWING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS/CMC
ENSEMBLES ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW 0C BY SATURDAY. NBM IS MOST CERTAINLY TOO WARM, AND
REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE COMING DAYS. AS FAR AS ANY
STORM SYSTEMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED,
ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, NBM POPS DO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXISTING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A LINE OF WEAK STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS PASSED ALL
SITES EXCEPT HYS. THERE IS RAIN EXPECTED FOR HYS, BUT JUST LINGERING
LOWERED CEILINGS FOR THE OTHERS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, AROUND 8Z,
FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES. HOW FAR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS DROP AND FOR HOW LONG HOLDS
SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FOG/STRATUS IS
HIGH. FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD, AND
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD,
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...KBJ
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