403
FXUS63 KDDC 041630
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 100-105 RANGE.
- SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TODAY AND TOMORROW, POSING LITTLE TO NO THREAT.
- ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT MIDDAY
SHOW RIDGING IS SPREAD OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EAST COAST, WITH A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRETY OF THE HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING 10-20 MPH SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN SOUTHWEST KS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES NO CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, AND
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE ONCE AGAIN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL MEANDER INTO
WESTERN KS AFTER 22Z. GIVEN MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLY SUB-SEVERE. OVERNIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 65-75 DEGREE RANGE.
RINSE AND REPEAT THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PROMOTES ANOTHER WARM, SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 97-102
DEGREE RANGE, ALONG WITH SIMILAR WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAVORING
OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
VIRTUALLY STATIONARY, WOBBLING ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL LOCK IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE HEAT SOMETIME
AROUND LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. NOW, ANY FORECAST AT
THIS RANGE IS HIGHLY DUBIOUS, AND SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH SEVERAL
GRAINS OF SALT, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A MODICUM OF HOPE THAT FALL
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE DISTANT HORIZON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE GUSTING TO
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
TO AOB 11 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS AN
OFF CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MEANDER INTO
WESTERN KS AND IMPACT GCK AND/OR LBL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
TERMINAL IMPACT WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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