140
FXUS63 KDDC 031700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING; SOME MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE DRY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, FAVORING AREAS NORTHEAST OF DODGE
CITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND IMPACT OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
- ABOUT 5 DEGREES LESS HOT SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK; TYPICAL AFTERNOON HEAT
IN THE 90S, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT PEAK HEATING EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE REMNANTS OF THE
NEBRASKA MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NE KANSAS.
THIS COMPLEX HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO
SW KS, EVIDENT ON RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GRAVITY
WAVES WERE ALSO PROPOGATING SOUTH, CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDAY MESOANALYSIS OUTLINED STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDING RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES, WITH MLCAPE
ALREADY REACHING 3000 J/KG AT MIDDAY. 12Z NAM/ARW, BOTH OF WHICH
PERFORMED EXCEPTIONALLY WELL WITH CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT THURSDAY,
BOTH SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
(SOUTHWEST OF DDC) AFTER 4 PM, PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY,
PRIMARY RISK WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS OF
60-70 MPH FROM LINEAR SEGMENTS IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, THERE MAY BE A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH RELATED 1-2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY WITH THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SETTLING OVER THE REGION, ENHANCING STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AT
LEAST LOCALLY. SPC CONTINUES WITH 5% MARGINAL WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITY, BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ZONES SHOULD THE ARW/NAM VERIFY
AGAIN. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.
MOST OF INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL FEATURE QUIET, TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BARBER COUNTY WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105) FOR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, BUT AFTER COORDINATING WITH
WFOS WICHITA/NORMAN, WILL PUNT THIS POSSIBLE ISSUANCE TO
TONIGHT'S SHIFT. REGARDLESS, THE HEAT WILL BE AN IMPACT SATURDAY
GIVEN THE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES. NOTABLY, MUCH LESS WIND IS
FORECAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL DECREASE EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS. REMEMBER THE IMPORTANCE OF WATER HYDRATION, EVEN
IF YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY.
A STRONGER CONVECTIVE SIGNAL REMAINS APPARENT SATURDAY EVENING,
AFTER 7 PM, AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY FAVORING THE NORTHEAST ZONES, NORTHEAST
OF DODGE CITY, FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. A WEAK COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL CONTRIBUTE
UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENTS, INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHEAR
AVAILABILITY, FAVORING STORM ORGANIZATION. AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND/HAIL IS PROBABLE FROM ANY STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND VERY IMPORTANTLY, GIVEN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IMPACTS,
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST SOME OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT; HAVE SEVERAL
WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS, AND SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IF STORMS
APPROACH. NBM POP GRIDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST/EAST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL HARDLY BE NOTICEABLE, MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
SHOWING ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF COOLING ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE WEAK
BOUNDARY PASSAGE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL TRIM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH.
QUIET WEATHER TYPICAL OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE 90S. WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH RELOCATED TO THE SW US BY THEN, WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE ROCKIES,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, IN THE NEW NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP APPEARS FAVORED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND NBM POPS
CORRECTLY REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. ELEVATED
TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
00Z SAT, GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z FRI, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST
STORMS MAY IMPACT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, SO
CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE DISSIPATED BY 06-09Z SAT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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