466
FXUS63 KDDC 261806
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE SREF INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, NOT
TO MENTION WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING SUPPORTING A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) PICK UP A LITTLE
SUNDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
MORE ZONAL WHILE EASTERLY UPSLOPING DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH MODEST INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT
PRESENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/WINTER MIX DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID-DAY
SUNDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NBM PAINTING ONLY A 10-20%
PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING EVEN 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REINFORCING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LATEST HREF POINTS TO A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
DIPPING BELOW 40F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH ONLY A 10% PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW 40F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WITH THAT, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S(F). WEST-SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPING RETURNS FRIDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING SLOWLY DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO, HELPING NUDGE H85 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 15C NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 70S(F) ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH THE HREF PAINTING A BROAD 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70F. A HALT IN THE WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 60S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
THE LOWER/MID 70S(F) STILL EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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