202
FXUS63 KDDC 020452
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1052 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM (COMPARED TO NORMAL) TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
- WARMEST DAYS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S
FOCUSED ON FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS UP TOWARD GARDEN CITY AND
DODGE CITY
- THERE ARE HINTS AT A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD (AND BEYOND), PERHAPS TOWARDS COLDER AND
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A WEAK, SHALLOW COLD FRONT PUSHED SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST EARLIER
THIS MORNING, AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS SHALLOW FRONTAL
ZONE JUST TO THE EAST OF A HAYS TO GREAT BEND LINE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THIS FRONTAL ZONE RETREATED BACK TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. DESPITE FAIRLY THICK HIGH CLOUD, TEMPERATURES WARMED
TO THE MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 60S FROM SCOTT CITY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD JETMORE WHERE THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SIMILAR FOG SETUP EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION OF CENTRAL KANSAS. WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG IN THE GRIDS IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
AREAS (HAYS DOWN TO ST. JOHN), AS 12Z HREF PROBABILISTIC FIELDS SHOW
HIGHEST 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY PROBS FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE
LARGER SCALE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL
HAVE NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS SENSIBLE WEATHER,
OTHER THAN HELPING KEEP MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND. DESPITE
CLOUD, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD EASILY SOAR THROUGH THE
50S. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD BE AROUND HAYS CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. THE UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY WILL CALL FOR HIGHS AROUND 65F AT ELKHART TO 48F AT HAYS.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN CONTINUED. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REACH A
CRESCENDO ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. LATEST NBM 75TH PERCENTILE HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY SHOW 76F AT ELKHART, 74F AT GARDEN CITY, AND 73F AT DODGE
CITY, AND WHILE THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THESE
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AS WE GET CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES, WE
WILL LIKELY SEE THESE FORECAST TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUE
TO TREND UPWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED, BUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A >30% CHANCE
FOR <6SM VISIBILITIES FROM ENSEMBLES IS AT HYS. THERE, FOG IS
EXPECTED AROUND 13-17Z. HOW DENSE THE FOG DEVELOPS IS STILL IN
QUESTION. MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE A LINE OF 1/4 VISIBILITIES CREEPING
TOWARDS BUT NOT REACHING HYS. IF THE FOG DEVELOPS FURTHER/FASTER IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT HYS SEES THAT SEVERE OF A VISIBILITY DECREASE.
OTHER SITES MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT (<10 KTS) AND VARIABLE WITH SHIFTING HIGH CLOUD COVER
EXCLUDING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KBJ
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