369
FXUS63 KDDC 201744
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT.
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) RETURN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS THE SREF INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN EASTERN WYOMING
EDGING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT,
SETTING UP A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA EJECTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL REINFORCE POOLED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S(F), PROVIDING MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
UPWARD OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN AN AXIS IN EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS LINE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO EJECT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES, INTERACTING WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH AXIS/DRYLINE
IN EASTERN COLORADO, THEN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS WHILE SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A COMPACT +60KT JET CORE CYCLING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS SUGGESTED BY CAMS AND THE HREF SHOWING A 40-60% PROBABILITY
OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) EXISTING NEAR AND ALONG
THE COLORADO LINE, THOUGH TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE WITH A SMALLER
SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES HELPS REINFORCE A COOLER AIR
MASS WITHIN A EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE LATEST HREF INDICATING A A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 60F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, CENTRAL KANSAS,
AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S(F)
IN OUR WEST/NORTHWEST WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) LIKELY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 60F IS LESS THAN 10%.
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MONDAY AS A PREVAILING COOLER
AIR MASS IS SLOW TO ERODE WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, RESULTING
IN H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING UP AROUND 15C IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEARING 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S(F) WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 75F ACROSS OUR EAST TO A BETTER
THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 70F NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO
LINE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS, KGCK, AND KDDC ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY AFTER 19-21Z AS PREVAILING
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER
THIS EVENING, THEN SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
THE VICINITY OF KGCK, KLBL, AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 05-07Z. LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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