633
FXUS63 KDDC 072359
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
559 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MONDAY LOOKING PARTICULARLY WARM AS
HIGHS APPROACH 80.
- STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (<15%) THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT
MIDDAY REVEAL A WEAK REX BLOCK IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHWEST KS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
YIELDING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME TODAY,
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CREEP
EASTWARD, RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING TO WESTERLY AND WEAKENING.
THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO
PROMOTE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S. TONIGHT, INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL OFFSET THE
RADIATIVE COOLING EFFECTS OF LIGHT WINDS, SUPPORTING OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
DAYTIME TOMORROW, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE OZARKS, SENDING A
SUBTLE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ESSENTIALLY ZERO
COLD AIR WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, AND THE
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACTUALLY ACT AGAINST ANY
COLD ADVECTION, FOSTERING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE WEAK RIDGING TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, ALLOWING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AFTER A PARTICULARLY WARM MONDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL NOT BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANY NOTEWORTHY PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AS
POP GRIDS ARE QUIET (<15%) THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...FINCH
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