641
FXUS63 KDDC 281530
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1030 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
- A LARGE TEMPERATURE RANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
STRATUS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KANSAS WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG, POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING, WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A SFC TROF AXIS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY, BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES, TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY
EARLY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE
BY 00Z. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR GARDEN CITY AND HAYS.
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE LEVELS, WHICH
WILL PREVENT AND MAJOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
OTHERWISE, THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A GOOD MOIST/NE TO E
UPSLOPE FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
IS CONCEPTUALLY A GOOD WEATHER PATTERN THAT FAVORS STRATUS AND
FOG. HAVE GONE AHEAD AFTER LOOKING AT SOME CAMS AND INSERTED FOG
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 56. IN ADDITION, THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO HAVE BIG BUST POTENTIAL. IN THIS
PARTICULAR WEATHER PATTERN, THE FOG AND STRATUS TENDS TO LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT MANY MODELS INDICATE. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
GLD AND DECREASED HIGHS IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRATUS
AND FOG. IF THE FOG AND STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD, HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60F IN THE NORTH. THIS WOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT NBM INDICATES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER 1.00". A
MID LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE STAGE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THERE
MIGHT BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, HOWEVER, BOTH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE ON THE VERY MARGINAL SIDE. THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AS SUCH, THE HIGHEST NBM POPS ARE IN THIS REGION. CURRENT NBM
HIGHS FRIDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM, WITH ALL THE
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS LINGERING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
VARY, BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MAY SEEM AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5"
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.25" ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES.
LONG RANGE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE INDICATING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT THOUGH THE THE ABSOLUTE
STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GEFS KEEPS
THE STRONGER SYSTEM LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN COMPARED WITH THE
ENS. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION AXIS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
COMPARED TO THE WETTER ENS. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM A TROPICAL WEATHER
SYSTEM (VANCE) MAY LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION, IF THE SYSTEM IS DEEP AND CLOSED, THE RESULTANT WIND
FIELD MAY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THU, WITH
VFR/SKC AT ALL AIRPORTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-27 KTS AT
ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SW KS THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY,
WITH A WEAK NORTHEAST/EAST WIND SHIFT. CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY, AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE OF THE LOWEST/MOST PERSISTENT CEILINGS IS AT HYS,
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST AT LBL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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