620
FXUS63 KDDC 162204
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 80S FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO FAR
WESTERN KANSAS TOWARD MORNING; BUT LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES
MAY GET AS COLD IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS NEAR DODGE CITY, CIMARRON
AND JETMORE AS THE TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE LONG TERM AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE DATE IS 5 TO 7 DAYS
EARLIER IN THE LOW LYING AREAS THAN THE HILLTOPS. THUS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY STAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ON THE HILL AT THE
DODGE CITY AIRPORT WHERE THE OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR DODGE
CITY IS TAKEN.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL RETURN BY
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE TROUGHING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, SOUTH WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MONDAY AND LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE NEXT WEEK; AND THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THIS FAR WEST IN THE PLAINS WE
GENERALLY NEED A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT THAT HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION INSTEAD OF A FASTER MOVING AND OPEN TROUGH.
IN THE LATTER SCENARIO, THE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS
GENERALLY STAY IN EASTERN KANSAS AND POINTS EAST; AND THIS IS
WHY THE WINTERS ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY SO DRY HERE. THE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE 15-OCTOBER TO 28-FEBRUARY TIME FRAME (4.5
MONTHS) IS ONLY 3.1" AT DODGE CITY. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN USA,
FORCING NORTH WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO THE TROPICS. SO DESPITE A
RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IN WESTERN KANSAS, NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT LOWER LATITUDES SO THAT THE RETURN FLOW WON'T BE AS
MOIST AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY; BUT
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL COLD DOME ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MIGHT PROMOTE MOIST ASCENT.
THAT SAID, THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL AT LEAST A WEEK
AWAY; AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR A SWITCH TO A MORE ROBUST
SOLUTION. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS EVEN LOWER CHANCES (10%) FOR
.5" OR GREATER OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN IT SHOWED
YESTERDAY (15-25%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS A DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE TERMINALS IN THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME S TO SW 10-15
KT BY TOMORROW AFTER 14Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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