020
FXUS63 KDDC 251034
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
534 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT AND HAIL POSSIBLE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK
- THE RETURN OF 100 DEGREE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
05Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A BAND OF WEAK STORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND A
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR THE
STORMS. STORMS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THE DAY SHOULD START WITH DECAYING STORMS ALONG AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE THAT ENTERS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS LATE MORNING.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH POST STORM WINDS COMING OUT OF THE
NORTH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT BAY THROUGH THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON SKIES WILL CLEAR AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH RAPID
DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF NEBRASKA WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP STORMS IN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD ALSO ACCESS THE DESTABILIZED ATMOSPHERE AND ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION IN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY EVENING. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER WITH THE
WESTERN LINE OF STORMS AND SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT COLD
POOLING WITH THE STORMS AND THE PRODUCTION OF 60-70 MPH GUSTS. 00Z
SKEW T FORECASTS FROM VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST AROUND 30
KTS OF BULK SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL PRODUCTION OF AROUND
QUARTER SIZE BUT WITH MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
THE HODOGRAPHS AREN'T REALLY SHOWING A LARGE TO GIANT HAIL
ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS PWAT
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES LOOKS TO BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN RANGE FROM 10-20%
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS SHOULD DROP
QUITE A BIT OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. WITH CONTINUOUS
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
IN FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST A 3RD ROUND OF
STORMS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WEDNESDAY THE COOLING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE 597 DM UPPER
LEVEL HIGH RETREATS TO THE WEST AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE MORE
EASTERLY. NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD FOR HIGHS RANGE FROM MID
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. LEFTOVER MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BY
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE BACK TO FULL SUNSHINE AND DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
FRONT RANGE BUT GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LONGER AND HARDER TIME TRYING TO MAKE IT TO
WESTERN KANSAS. AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-50%) OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ENSEMBLE TRENDS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
BRINGING BACK IN HOTTER AIR AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100 DEGREE OR
HOTTER HIGHS IS BACK TO 30-50% ON SATURDAY AND 40-80% ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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