656
FXUS63 KDDC 170923
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING, THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE, WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT TODAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND IN RESPONSE INTO THE 60S. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S BY MONDAY AND LOWER 80S BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION TOWARD THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS LATE
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED, THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY A VERY DRY PERIOD FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND IT TAKES A VERY SPECIFIC SETUP TO GET
DECENT MOISTURE THIS FAR WEST. SO HISTORY WOULD BE GENERALLY
AGAINST IT. HOWEVER, THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM IS
FAVORABLE, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY. THE BIGGEST
FACTOR IS THE LEVEL OF RETURN MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER
ONE OF THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT FALL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
RECENTLY SWEPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. PER SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, THE COLD FRONT HAS TRACKED WELL INTO THE GULF, AND
IS EXPECTED TO CUT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SO
IT WOULD TAKE A LOT FOR THAT RICHER MOISTURE TO COME BACK IN
TIME FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES HAVE SEVERAL DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS, POPS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AT AROUND 30-40%
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBALS DO TRY AND BRING
MEAGER INSTABILITY, SO THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINS IS STILL LOOKING UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25-28 KTS AT
ALL AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER 18Z SAT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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