806
FXUS63 KDDC 290001
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL HAPPEN SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
19Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A LAYER OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN COLORADO HAS LED TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE FRONT RANGE AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST HAS LED TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
SURFACE LOW INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GIVEN
THE TRENDS WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL LIFT
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE ON THE DRIER END OF
THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT DOESN'T EVEN SHOW SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS WITH
AREAS IN CENTRAL KANSAS SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARDS
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. POPS AROUND 20% ARE INCLUDED FOR AREAS
MAINLY FROM HAYS TO PRATT. THE COLD AIR SHOULD QUICKLY SWEEP IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER THE TIME WINDOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX AROUND HAYS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND AS SUCH NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND NO WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
THE MAIN IMPACTS ON SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDS AND THE BLAST OF
COLDER AIR. POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z AND WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN
FALL TO -5 TO -10 (C) BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH TRENDED
WITH NBM25TH FOR HOURLY AND MAXT TO REFLECT STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. LOADED NBM75TH PERCENTILE FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS AND NBM90TH FOR GUSTS TO GET CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH
ENTERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BUT WITH THE
POLAR AIR IN PLACE AND CAA THROUGH THE DAY HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
MAINLY FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE ABOUT SNOWFALL TOTALS HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHERE THE BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW ARE STARTING
TO LINE UP BETTER AS THE AREA OF 700 MB LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE BEST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THEN SWEEPING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD PUT THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF SNOW BANDS FROM GARDEN CITY TO
PRATT ON NORTH WITH HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN THE K-96 AND I-70
CORRIDORS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DROPS AREN'T ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME SO WINDS SHOULD STAY ON A RELATIVELY LIGHTER SIDE. WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS POINT SHOULD STAY MINOR GIVEN THE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND A MORE DRY POWDERY SNOW DUE TO THE POLAR AIR IN
PLACE AND LACK OF BLOWING SNOW. LREF PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 30-
50% CHANCE OF > 1 INCH OF SNOW. WITH THE OPEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE THE SNOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW A MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
MOIST ADVECTION AND LOWERED CLOUD CIGS TO IFR OR LOW MVFR AFTER
06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
10-13Z RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
25-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS BY 15Z. A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT AROUND HAYS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES, EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...TATRO
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