896
FXUS63 KDDC 011615
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1115 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; MAINLY WEST OF ROUTE 283
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
INTO THIS WEEKEND; SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THURSDAY
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE PLAGUING THE LOWER 48 CONTINUES
TO BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO
ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LESSENED
AS WEAKER MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER AREA. CAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 9 C/KM AND
SBCAPE GREATER THAN 2,000 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG, DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. HOWEVER, LACKING BULK
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS IS SUGGESTIVE OF WEAK STORM
ORGANIZATION. OVERALL EXPECTATION IS LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING, PRIMARILY AFTER 21Z, AND SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. EASTWARD EXTENT OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT AREAS WEST OF ROUTE 283
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES. STORMS WILL WEAKEN INTO THE
EVENING. SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE RISK, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SEASONAL FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF JULY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH WITH 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT TEMPERATURE
AND WIND WISE FOR THURSDAY. A FEW CAMS DO ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP A
FEW STORMS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE RISK IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. POPS ARE 20% OR LESS FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO GET
HOTTER, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. HEAT
INDICES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO MONITOR JUST
HOW HOT IT WILL GET AND IF ANY HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED BUT
THE EXTENT MAY BE LIMITED.
NBM POPS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS A
SUBTLE WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS ARE GREATEST IN
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL SEVERITY ARE
LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES GENERALLY AFTER 01-03Z. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS MAY
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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