559
FXUS63 KDDC 171944
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) RETURN TO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION***
19Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED THROUGH
DODGE CITY AND THE ROUTE 283 CORRIDOR WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE AREAS TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES, CAPE HAS GROWN IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA, MAINLY FROM ELLIS DOWN TO PAWNEE COUNTIES, WHERE THE
GREATEST LIFT AND FORCING RESIDES WITH THE DRYLINE AND COLD
FRONT INTERSECTION. ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO MORE LINEAR CONVECTION GIVEN MORE SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARIES THERE. THE MAIN RISKS IN THIS CORRIDOR
WILL BE INITIAL LARGE HAIL WITH ANY BRIEF DISCRETE CELLS, WITH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK POSSIBLE AS STORMS FURTHER MATERIALIZE.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE, A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT. SOME CAMS TRY TO INITIATE
STORMS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND TRACK THEM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME ASPECTS AGAINST DRYLINE
CONVECTION. MESOANLYSIS SHOW SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB WINDS ACROSS
THE DRYLINE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANY ATTEMPTS BEING ADVECTED
QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE GREATEST ASCENT. THERE ALSO ARE NEGLIGIBLE
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE VICINITY AS WELL, LEADING TO A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE RISK OF STORM INITIATION AND
SUSTAINABILITY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
GO UP AND SUSTAIN, IT WOULD BE IN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING A TORNADO RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A POSITIVELY-
TILTED LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-60%) PICK UP THIS EVENING AS THE SREF POINTS
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSING
OFF AS IT TURNS MORE EASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT,
SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE SITUATED IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES CLIMBING NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE
MIXING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS PUSHING WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F, INCREASING
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES REACHING IN EXCESS OF 3000-3500 J/KG.
DESPITE A LESS THAN ROBUST FLOW ALOFT (+50KT FIELD OF WESTERLIES)
AND SHORT-FUSE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT CAPPING IN PLACE,
SUFFICIENT FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AND SUBSEQUENT WARM
FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING AS
INDICATED BY MOST CAMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE HREF INDICATES A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25
OF AN INCH BY LATE EVENING. THE HIGHER INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE (40-60% CHANCE) ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OUT
WEST BEGINS TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. IN RESPONSE, A
SURFACE LOW IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS
MONDAY EVENING WHILE AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE OSCILLATES GENERALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INTERACTING
WITH THE DRYLINE/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. AGAIN, THE HREF PAINTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE IS A 20-40%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF TOPPING .25 OF AN INCH BY LATE MONDAY
EVENING.
A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW UP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS, DROPPING H85
TEMPERATURES BELOW 15C WHILE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HREF SUPPORTS THIS SHOWING A 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIDING BELOW 55F IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO 30-50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROPPING BELOW 70F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE SEASONAL IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY
DUE TO THE PROJECTED STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WHILE
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH. THE HREF SHOWS
A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80F IN VICINITY
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING
90F NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS, SO LOOK
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE GENERALLY THE 80S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE 90S(F) FARTHER SOUTH. MUCH COOLER AIR
ARRIVING TUESDAY BEHIND THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY
DISLODGING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
STRENGTHENING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOW DUST
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN VICINITY OF KLBL, KGCK, AND
KDDC. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KHYS GENERALLY
AFTER 00-02Z. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS EXISTS IN VICINITY OF KHYS GENERALLY AFTER 06-08Z
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20-30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS A DRYLINE ADVANCES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, WINDS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHILE BECOMING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA BEFORE
STALLING OUT LATE TONIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA LINE OVERNIGHT WHILE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20KT PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH AND EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY IN THE 5 TO 10% RANGE
WILL LEAD TO HIGH-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH-
END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO THE
WEST OF DODGE CITY AND SOUTHWARD TO LIBERAL AND ELKHART, WITH
SIMILAR WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ074>077-
084>087.
UPDATE...BENNETT
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
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