257
FXUS63 KDDC 231520
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE, WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL.
- BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A DISTINCT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH HOTTER AFTERNOONS, RAIN CHANCES ENDING,
AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS, OUR
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. SPECIFIC SUBSYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS WILL BE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS, SO THE FOCUS
OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE ON JUST THAT -- THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WE HAVE SEEN A SMALL, DISORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
IN A FAIRLY WEAK 800-700MB WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS MAINLY
FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS AND ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS, PARTICULARLY THE EXPERIMENTAL MPAS VERSION OF THE RAPID
REFRESH ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (REFS), HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT QUITE WELL WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THE
MPAS REFS MOVES THIS CLUSTER SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH REDEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT ON THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THE OK LINE (USING THE LPMM COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY FIELD). THIS NEW CLUSTER THEN MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH SOME MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LEFT
BEHIND THIS EARLY MORNING MCS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ROBUST
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS NEAR A MESOLOW SOMEWHERE IN/AROUND
BACA COUNTY, COLORADO/CIMARRON COUNTY, OKLAHOMA. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA WOULD PROBABLY COME VERY CLOSE TO ELKHART
AND LIKELY BECOME A SUPERCELL GIVEN VERY GOOD HODOGRAPH SHAPE
DUE TO EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE
MESOLOW. OTHER SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY FORM
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, PARTICULARLY THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.
MOST MODELS AND ESPECIALLY HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG SIGNAL OF A RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED MCS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT (TUESDAY
NIGHT). SHOULD THIS MATERIALIZE, THEN WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING'S THUNDERSTORM EPISODE LIKELY FOCUSED OUT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A COMPLICATED TAF PACKAGE WITH AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTED NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND LIMITED THUNDER
AROUND THE AIRPORTS AT 15Z TUE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR STRATUS
PERSISTED AS WELL PER 15Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CONSENSUS OF
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWS STRATUS PERSISTING FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL,
OF THIS TAF PERIOD, AND THIS TREND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE TAFS.
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS
PERIOD. MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR, AND WILL NEED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS ON RADAR TRENDS WITH TIME. AS SUCH, CONVECTIVE
MENTIONS IN THE INITIAL 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ARE LIMITED. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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