234
FXUS63 KDDC 052200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S).
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH
100S LIKELY (60+% CHANCE) MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BEST CHANCE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH NBM SHOWING WIDESPREAD 75TH-PERCENTILE 24-HR QPF
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, ROUGHLY JULY 10-14, INCREASINGLY LIKELY
(60+% CHANCE) TO SEE CONSECUTIVE 100 TO 105-DEGREE DAYS AS A
VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHORT TERM WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION WILL BE
TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE ABSENCE OF STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL PREVENT A LEESIDE TROUGH WITH LOWEST PRESSURE LOCKED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THICKNESSES WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WYOMING, WHICH WILL KEEP HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES FARTHER WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND EAST BY MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN
THANKS TO A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
TOWARD COLORADO AND WYOMING. A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
MAIN POLAR BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADA BORDER WILL AID
IN PUSHING A WEAK POLAR FRONT SOUTH MID-WEEK. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST 24-HR PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE ROUGHLY 7 AM
THURSDAY TO 7 AM FRIDAY (CDT), WHEN THE LATEST NBM SHOWS 24-HR 75TH
PERCENTILE QPF IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. PEAK RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WHERE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD TRACK ACROSS IN THE 1 TO 1.75" RANGE
PER 95TH PERCENTILE QPF FIELDS OFF THE 13Z RUN OF THE NBM.
ONCE THE MID-LATE WORKWEEK PRECIPITATION EVENT MOVES EAST, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOP
ALOFT, LIKELY APPROACHING OR EVEN REACHING 600 DECAMETERS AT 500MB
AT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS ANOMALOUSLY LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE
MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 100 TO
105 DEGREE HEAT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS,
INCLUDING SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE WOULD
PROBABLY COMMENCE AROUND SATURDAY 11TH AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS GETS JUST BEYOND OUR 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
YESTERDAY'S CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD (JULY 10-14) DOES
CALL FOR 60-70% PROBABILITY ("LIKELY" CATEGORY) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE. THIS ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK MAY EVEN
INCREASE FURTHER AS AS MORE AND MORE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
LOCK IN ON THIS ANOMALOUSLY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN GOING INTO
MID-JULY (SYNCED WITH OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL HOTTEST 10-DAY PERIOD OF
THE CALENDAR YEAR).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDTSUN JUL 5 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. LIGHT SE/S WINDS 5-15 KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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