281
FXUS63 KDDC 011020
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
520 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS TODAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE STORMS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FA
- HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST THURSDAY
- COOLER FRIDAY AND MILD OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION ONLY SEEING A TENTH OR TWO INCHES. LOOKS
LIKE THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FA WITH THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. THE CAMS NOW AGREE THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. SOME STORM ACTIVITY COULD CLIP
THE THREE EASTERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER, THERE IS CLEARLY A TREND TO
THE EAST. TO THE WEST, ANY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBVIOUSLY
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S,
ALTHOUGH LOW 70S ARE LIKELY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR TONIGHT,
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTH.
DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE FAR WEST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THURSDAY.
THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT AS WITH WEDNESDAY,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD END UP SEVERE, BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS DO FORM IN THE FAR EAST, THEY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE FA AND MUCH OF THE STORM REPORTS WILL REMAIN IN
ICT AND OUN FORECAST AREAS.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BOTH DAYS. THE NET RESULT IS
A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND THE 70S SUNDAY.
A FREEZE IS LIKELY IN THE MORNINGS. LOOKING AT THE NEXT BUSINESS
WEEK, IT APPEARS WE WILL BE UNDER SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THE NET RESULT
IS A DRY FORECAST AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL STRATUS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS GENERALLY AFTER 20-22Z.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BRIEFLY. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING ARE FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
EDGES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 25KT AFTER 00Z AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH GLD AND
AMA TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS A WATCH ON THIS SHIFT. THE
NET RESULT IS WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER THURSDAY.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 6 COUNTIES IN THE WEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...SUGDEN
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