133  
FXUS63 KDDC 291624  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1024 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RISK  
IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND (40-70% CHANCE ON SUNDAY)  
 
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS WITH RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DODGE  
CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE ON SUNDAY.  
 
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES  
OF RAIN (20-25%) BY MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
07Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH  
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH COMING IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE A 1013  
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR DENVER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS BEEN TIGHTENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS  
WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS. ALSO A FEW AIRPORTS WEST  
OF GARDEN CITY HAVE REPORTED HAZE AS FAINT AMOUNTS OF SMOKE FROM  
THE WILDFIRES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS VIA THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 
THROUGHOUT TODAY AFTER LOOKING OVER THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL I'VE  
INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF HAZE AND SMOKE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS  
DURING THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SMOKE IN THE  
UPPER LEVELS MAY BE THICKER AT TIMES DURING THE DAY BUT AT THIS  
POINT IT SHOULDN'T BE A MAJOR CONCERN. THE FIRE RISK FOR TODAY  
WILL STAY ELEVATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING AFTER 9AM  
AS THE LOWER LEVELS MIX OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AT  
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 15% AND WITH CLOUDS COMING IN WITH THE  
APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP THE HUMIDITY VALUES  
HIGHER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AREAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR  
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK OF ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS. BY  
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE  
WILL SPREAD MID TO LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND  
EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HAYS LINE WHICH WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES  
COOLER MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAIN CHANCES  
DON'T LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY AROUND A 20% CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS  
CROSSING THE OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
TONIGHT THE HRRR SMOKE MODELS WAS SHOWING ANOTHER PLUME COMING  
IN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SO KEPT SOME HAZE AND SMOKE IN THE  
GRIDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BACK TO  
10-20 MPH.  
 
FRIDAY THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE MORESO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WHICH  
SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS ON THE LESSER SIDE FOR WESTERN KANSAS  
STANDARDS AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 MPH. WEST  
OF THE TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM HIGHWAY 83 ON WEST THE WINDS WILL  
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR WHICH COULD  
LOWER THE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 15%. ONCE AGAIN FIRE RISK WILL BE  
MAINLY ELEVATED IN THESE AREAS AS THE WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE  
WILL KEEP US OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO THE LOWER TO  
MID 70S ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND MID TO UPPER 60S TO  
THE EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
MAIN TALKING POINTS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST  
TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE COMING  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND LEE  
SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND DEEPEN AS  
THE TROUGH APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ON SATURDAY SHOULD  
STAY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE NBMV4.1 HAS  
PROBABILITIES OF 25-80%. THE PROBABILITIES OF STRONGER WINDS  
INCREASE AS YOU MOVE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS  
HAVING A 50-60% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH.  
MINIMUM RH VALUES BOTH DAYS LOOK TO BE AROUND 15-20% WHICH WILL  
GIVE US NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG  
CRITERIA. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S. ON SUNDAY DODGE CITY HAS A RECORD HIGH OF 79  
AND MEDICINE LODGE HAS A RECORD HIGH OF 85 AND BOTH COULD BE IN  
JEOPARDY OF GETTING BROKE.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES  
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WE SHOULD SEE A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEP  
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND USHER IN COLDER AIR TO START OFF THE NEW  
WORKWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.  
 
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS  
SHOW A QUICK MOVING TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES OF  
RAIN (20%) AT THIS POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOOKS TO  
BE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN COMING IN THE LONG TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON  
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, DROPPING TO AROUND  
10 TO 20KT GENERALLY AFTER 02-04Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED FEB 28 2024  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS WINDS WILL  
INCREASE WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW IN COLORADO AND THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER MIXING OUT AFTER 9 AM. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY  
ABOVE 15% WHICH WILL KEEP US OUT OF THE CRITICAL CATEGORY WITH  
THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE  
I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TATRO  
LONG TERM...TATRO  
AVIATION...JJOHNSON  
FIRE WEATHER...TATRO  
 
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