369
FXUS63 KDDC 190425
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH NO CHANGES IN COUNTIES
AND NO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING AS PROBABILITIES OF 32F OR
LESS ARE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A WARNING (HAMILTON CO. WILL BE
CLOSE AROUND 50% PROB ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARK RIVER).
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30
MPH, SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND NO PRECIPITATION.
- SIGNALS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ACROSS
A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF KANSAS LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. NBM
PROBS OF 1/4" OR MORE 2-DAY RAINFALL ARE IN THE 30 TO 50%
RANGE, HIGHEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
FIELDS SHOWED THE PHASING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK, WHICH WAS AMPLIFYING UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE PHASING SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST. A SUBTLE
"COMMA HEAD" FEATURE WAS DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT AS THE PHASED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE (MLC) MATURES
TONIGHT, IT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REGION.
THE COLD FRONT, TIED TO THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT OF THE
NOW PHASED MLC, CONTINUED TO DRIVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED WITH MOST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS RECORDING NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35+
AT TIMES ON GOOD MSLP RISES BEHIND THE FRONT (ON THE ORDER OF +5
MB/3H). DECENT MSLP RISES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
BUT AS THE CENTER OF THE EXPANDING MSLP HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE DECREASING WIND,
A CLEAR SKY, AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS FALLING DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S (DEGF) THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE INHERITED FROST ADVISORY
ALONG/WEST OF LIBERAL TO DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY LINE STILL LOOKS GOOD.
LATEST 12Z NBM AND HREF PROBABILISTIC FIELDS FOR 2-METER
TEMPERATURES DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT UPGRADE OF THE FROST ADVISORY TO
A FREEZE WARNING (32F OR LESS), WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION BEING
HAMILTON COUNTY.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE
LARGER HEMISPHERIC SCALE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE, SO THIS
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER A VERY FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT AND
NO PRECIPITATION. MONDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THAT
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL PREVAIL.
HEADING DEEPER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, A LARGE SCALE MAIN POLAR
BRANCH RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT
PLAINS. AN INITIAL CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, EFFECTIVELY KICKING OUT THE
SOCAL LOW OUT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, THE REMNANTS OF THE POLAR FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE EARLIER WEEK SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, AND A NEW SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING
TOGETHER FOR AN ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS A DECENT
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FOCUSED ON LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA, AND IF THIS PANS
OUT, THIS FAVORS AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS KANSAS,
INCLUDING PERHAPS A FAIR PORTION OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THIS,
THE NBM POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO INCREASE, UP TO AROUND
40-50% FOR OUR EASTERN FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A CONSISTENT TREND IN THESE POPS EXPANDING
WESTWARD IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS, AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH
MORE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HONING IN ON A STORM TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH, POPS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT, SO THIS IS ABOUT AS SPECIFIC AS WE CAN
GET REGARDING ANY SORT OF SIGNAL FOR THE LATE WEEK POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT RATHER
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR
DDC AND GCK. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-
043-044-061>063-074>076-084>086.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BENNETT
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