518  
FXUS63 KDDC 241740  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS LIKELY (90%)  
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS OF 100 TO  
105 POSSIBLE. (50-80% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO BE 100 OR HIGHER  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY).  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
AT 00Z WEDNESDAY, A 500MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN. WEST OF THE  
UPPER RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF BRITISH  
COLUMBIA. EAST OF THIS UPPER RIDGE, SEVERAL SUBTLE UPPER WAVES  
WERE EMBEDDED IN A NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT  
UPPER TROUGH OVER WYOMING.  
 
ALL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS THIS MORNING REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
WITH EACH OTHER AND HAVE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. A SUBTLE UPPER  
WAVE EAST OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
THIS EVENING, AND BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES FROM VARIOUS MODEL  
SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL  
ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER WAVE. ADDITIONALLY, 850MB TEMPERATURES  
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BY 2-3F FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z  
THURSDAY, WITH A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5C OR LESS IN THE 90TH TO  
10TH PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S  
THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY LIKELY (90%), ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE  
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.  
 
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAYS ENSEMBLES THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE  
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADY OUT BRIEFLY EARLY THIS WEEKEND BASED  
ON THE MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z EACH DAY. CONFIDENCE ON  
THIS OCCURRING IS HIGH GIVEN THAT THE ENSEMBLE 850MB  
TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINING AT 5C OR LESS DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME. ENSEMBLES FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 27 TO  
NEAR 30C AT BOTH 00Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY, STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS  
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THE COOLER END OF THESE  
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.  
 
ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT  
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION, ALLOWING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. DESPITE  
THE NBM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING A DRY FORECAST THIS UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR  
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM COLORADO AS ANY SUBTLE UPPER  
LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CROSSES THE WESTERN  
HIGH PLAINS, EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR LATE SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES  
THAT FAR OUT TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE THESE FEATURES VERY WELL.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WARMING TREND WILL RETURN AS THE WEEKENDS  
SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS REPLACED BY AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES  
ITSELF TOWARD MID WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
WHAT LITTLE CHANCE THERE WAS FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL END, AND  
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL  
INCREASE. ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE LATEST ECMWF  
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AND SHIFT OF TAILS SUPPORT THIS, WITH AN  
EFI OF 0.6 TO 0.7 NOW APPEARING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON DAY 7.  
THIS INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (+60%) OF UNUSUALLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2024  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 8-10 KTS DURING THE  
PERIOD AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BUT SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 5-7  
MILES AT TIMES. THE SMOKE SHOULD THIN OUT GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BURGERT  
AVIATION...FINCH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page