155
FXUS63 KDDC 162204
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A RATHER AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN PLACE ATOP
THE CONUS, WITH RIDGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES, AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE FIELD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS QUITE NEBULOUS, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
850-MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY AROUND 5-6 DEGREES C BY THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING 850-MB
WINDS, AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A NOTICEABLE JUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SOME HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS DIVING
SOUTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS LOW. WITH 1000-2000
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND AT LEAST 35-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS RISK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY
LIMITED. OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET, WITH
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES BRING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z THURSDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE 90S, BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF OUR AREA CAN REACH 100 BEFORE
THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
QUICKER WITH THE FRONT, NOW SHOWING THE FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST ~1/4 OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION MAY YIELD
A QUICK SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER CURRENT THINKING IS MOST
LOCATIONS WILL FAIL TO HIT 100 BEFORE FROPA, WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF AN ASHLAND TO STAFFORD LINE REACHING THE CENTURY MARK.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO NO LONGER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA AS THE
FASTER FRONT EXITS OUR AREA BEFORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN BE
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENED.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN, WITH FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMING ZONAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, AND CONSISTENTLY NON-ZERO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THAT SAID, PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT STILL
REMAINS IN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF ANY PRECIPITATION, SO
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO START
THE PERIOD AT ONLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AFTER
14Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, BUT WILL STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BENNETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page