029
FXUS63 KDDC 311600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND
- BECOMING HOT AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
- MAINLY A DRY FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES IN THE
WEST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AFTER 7 PM TONIGHT.
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER IN ACROSS
THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL BE GOOD NEWS,
AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. LOWS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A MIX OF 60S TO 70S SUNDAY MORNING. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS.
A 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE FROM THE SW US TO OVER THE GREATER
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST AND HOT HIGHS. HIGHS WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY. UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. LOWS
WILL BE WARM WITH MORE 70S RATHER THAN 60S AS EACH MORNING PROGRESSES.
THE NBM HAS VERY LOW SLIGHT POPS OUT WEST TUESDAY EVENING. A LOOK
AT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS DO NOT SUPPORT
THESE STORMS CHANCES MUCH. MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE DRY FOR NEXT
WEEK. WITH SUCH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FA, IT WOULD MAKE MORE
SENSE TO NOT SEE ANY STORMS THAN TO SEE THEM.
LOOKING BEYOND NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT THE PICTURE
OF A PREVAILING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST FOR A DRY AND HOT FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AROUND 00Z TO 5 TO 10 KT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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