596
FXUS63 KDDC 221105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AND BITTER ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
- WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 50%) OF WIDESPREAD 4+
INCHES OF SNOW WITH 8-10 INCH POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS
- ARCTIC AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY AND COULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -15 TO -20 FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AND AIR TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
GET TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
08Z SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. AN UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL TODAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WEATHER WISE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE THE LAST RELATIVELY MILD DAY FOR A WHILE AS HIGHS GET
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
A LARGE AND MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BUT WHAT IS FOR
CERTAIN IS THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH IN
KANSAS THAT IT SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. THE ARCTIC FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY
WE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL HEATING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING AT DEVELOPING THE SNOW A LITTLE LATER IN THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE STARTING IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A CAVEAT TO THAT
IS THAT THEIR WILL ALSO BE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO START
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT MAY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS TO
SATURATE BEFORE WE SEE SNOW ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS. WE SHOULD
SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z FOR MOST
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850-700 MB LIFT INTENSIFIES WITH A
SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN COLORADO. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AND NBM AND SHORT TERM MODELS
FORECASTING A 15:1 SLR WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A
40-50% CHANCE WE RECEIVE 4 INCHES OR MORE ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BRIEF SHUTDOWN OF SNOW AS
DRIER AIR INTRUDES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THE LIFT WILL CEASE FOR A TIME. WHERE
MODELS ARE DIVERGING IN THINKING IS THE NEXT AREA OF LIFT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
EJECTS INTO TEXAS AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS CLOSE OFF A 700 MB
LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MODELS SUCH AS
THE RRFS AND NAM HINT AT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL
THINKING THE EVENT SHOULD BE ENDING SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
UNCERTAINTY COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN ADDITIONAL 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF WHAT WE RECEIVE AND THIS WILL BE THE
PART OF THE FORECAST TO WATCH CLOSELY. OVERALL THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60%) OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY TO LA CROSSE LINE.
THE OTHER HEADLINE WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL PRODUCE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR FOR THE WINTER SEASON. NEWEST
MODEL TRENDS SHOW COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GIVEN WE ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW A LONGER DURATION OF
THE ARCTIC AIR STAYING IN PLACE. UPDATED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AS COLD AS -20 (C) STARTING FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR
NORTH AND LASTING WELL INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE MODERATION
SHOWING UP THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THAT I OPTED TO DROP
TEMPERATURES TO THE COLDER NBM PERCENTILES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON
SATURDAY AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 FOR SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST WIND CHILLS WILL
BE IN THE -15 TO -20 RANGE. -20 OR COLDER IS CONSIDER AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 96 SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE ADVISORY MAY BE UPGRADED IF NEWER FORECASTS
SHOW COLDER TRENDS WITH THE AIRMASS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD FALL QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD BE EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE 12 KTS OR LESS
SUSTAINED UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN 09-12Z
AND THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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