212
FXUS63 KDDC 061105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND FOG THIS MORNING
- LOW STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA, BRINGING PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN RISK. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG PER MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS STORMS COULD YIELD A
FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE OVERALL HAIL
THREAT IS BEING KEPT AT BAY DUE TO MOISURE-LADEN NATURE OF THE
VERTICAL PROFILE WITH PWATS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE PER 00Z
DDC SKEW-T. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG
ROUTE 96 NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
FOG DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS WELL. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP AS LOW AS 1-3 MILES. HOWEVER, THE REFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SUGGEST PROBABILITIES LESS THAN A HALF-MILE IN THE 40-60% RANGE,
SO THE SIGNAL FOR DENSER FOG IS EVIDENT, BUT ULTIMATELY HELD OFF
ON ANY DENSE FOG HEADLINES AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FOR THE
NEED FOR HEADLINES.
ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS IS EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, WITH POPS LARGELY 25% OR LESS THIS
EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, A STRONGER STORM, ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING, COULD
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN INCREASE BEGINNING TODAY AND
INTO THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, HEAT INDICES COULD GET IN THE 100-104
RANGE, JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND 100-105 AND AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER COULD YIELD HEAT INDICES TO AT LEAST
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BARBER COUNTY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
HOWEVER, ANY HEADLINES WILL OCCUR IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES AND
WILL LIKELY BE A DAY BY DAY DECISION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF GCK AND DDC TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO START THIS TAF PERIOD. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING, BUT LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS IN THE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH
IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT/DISSIPATING IN THE
16-18Z TIME FRAME. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT MUCH LIKE THIS
MORNING'S ACTIVITY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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