311
FXUS63 KDDC 121700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DROUGHT
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT THURSDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EASTERN ZONES (CENTRAL KANSAS)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE SKY OVER SW KS HAS BEEN PERFECTLY CLEAR FOR OVER 24 HOURS
NOW, AND MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLEAR SKY
CONTINUING IN A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT, DRY AND QUIET REGIME. A
DRY COLD FRONT WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE
TO PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH SUNSET. THERE IS A
COMPLETE ABSENCE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL EASILY REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG 590+ DM MIDLEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AT 7 PM TUESDAY,
WILL FLATTEN BUT EXPAND EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH 7 PM
WEDNESDAY. A SIMPLE FORECAST RESULTS, SUNNY WITH FEW CLOUDS,
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, AND INCREASINGLY
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH NBM AND
OTHER GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE RECORD HIGH AT DDC IS 97, AND THAT LOOKS VERY
ATTAINABLE; NBM NOW SUGGESTS A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 99 AT DDC.
NBM PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 100 DEGREES IS AT
20-25% FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TO NEAR LIBERAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS, BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OR A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY, WINDS LOOK MUCH TAMER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS THINKING. THIS WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT, REDUCING THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD, WHILE THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS TO 10-15% THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
MAINTAINS SOME VERY LOW, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (<20%) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ZONES, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE KINEMATICS AND LIFT
WILL IMPROVE WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENED AND IMPROVED FORCING FOR
ASCENT, THERMODYNAMICS STILL LOOK QUITE POOR, WITH MOISTURE
QUALITY LIMITED AND CAPPING INVERSIONS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY FROM SPC FAVORS THE EASTERN
ZONES SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH VIRGA IN A HOT/MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. MOST IF
NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
SUNNY, HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, DESPITE A
NORTHEAST BREEZE BEHIND ANOTHER WEAK DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SHAVED DOWN ABOUT 5
DEGREES, FROM THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY TO THE MID 90S FRIDAY.
POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY (25-54%) REMAIN IN THE GRIDS,
STRONGLY FAVORING THE EASTERN ZONES, BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE EAST OF US 283, AND MORE LIKELY BE HUGGING THE
EASTERN ZONES AT TIME OF ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS OVER THIS WEEKEND, AS MIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY TO THUNDERSTORM
DISTRIBUTION, AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS ANY RAINFALL WEST OF
ABOUT US 283 WILL BE LIMITED OR ABSENT THIS WEEKEND, WITH FIRE
DANGER BEHIND THE DRYLINE PROVING TO BE A MUCH LARGER CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
VFR/SKC AND SCATTERED CIRRUS AT TIMES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25-28 KTS THROUGH SUNSET. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET, AND TREND
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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