904
FXUS63 KDDC 270445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-SEVERE STORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SW KANSAS
TONIGHT
- PATTERN CHANGE TOMORROW BRINGING A LONG STRETCH OF VERY HOT
AND DRY DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER 20-30 MPH SOUTH WIND
- HEAT RISK IS THE GREATEST THREAT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES SOME DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRIMARILY ZONAL WITH
THE ONLY CHANGE BEING A VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEARER TO THE SURFACE AT
AROUND 850 MB, A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS HAS HELPED NUMEROUS STORMS FIRE IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE INTO KANSAS. TO THIS POINT, STORMS HAVE
STAYED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS, BUT HAVE GUSTED TO AROUND 55 MPH. THE
AREA WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER NEAR LIBERAL AS THOSE STORMS ARE NOTABLY
STRONG. THE QUESTION IS DO THEY MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENTER
KANSAS AND MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH IN DOING SO.
INTO SATURDAY, THE ADVERTISED PATTERN SHIFT FINALLY ARRIVES. WINDS
WILL SHARPEN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-25 MPH AND PROVIDE STRONG WAA TO
RAPIDLY PUSH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE
90S, WITH SOME AREAS IN FAR SW KANSAS AROUND 100 DEGREES. SUNDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS THE WAA HOLDS PAT; HIGHS FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA WILL BE AROUND OR SURPASSING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE BULK OF THE AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 AT A >75%
FOR 100+ HIGHS. HEAT RISK WILL DEFINITELY NEED ATTENTION WITH
CURRENT FORECASTS TEETERING ON THE LINE OF MODERATE/MAJOR HEAT RISK.
EVERYONE EXPOSED TO THE HEAT IS ADVISED SERIOUS CAUTION VIA
HYDRATION AND COOLING BREAKS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FOR
VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE STRETCH OF VERY HOT WEATHER.
MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR IN TEMPERATURE ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER. TUESDAY SEES ANOTHER SLIGHT IN HIGHS FORECAST AROUND THE MID
90S. DEFINITELY STILL HOT ENOUGH TO PROVOKE HEAT RELATED
PRECAUTIONS. THE REMAINING DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN
IN THIS ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES.
EARLY INDICATION IS THAT NEXT SATURDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST YET WITH
HIGHS CREEPING BACK UP TOWARDS 105 DEGREES. BEYOND TONIGHT, THE HEAT
IS BY FAR THE MOST SERIOUS FORECAST HAZARD. THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL SEE
VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT
COULD MINGLE WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AT 20-30 MPH FOR ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS. HOWEVER GREEN FUELS WITH THE AMPLE PRECIPITATION
RECEIVED THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL QUELL THE MAJORITY OF THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND REACH ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT HYS. WITH IT WILL BE STORMS AND LOWERED CEILINGS.
RAIN MAY ALSO LOWER VISIBILITIES. BY AROUND 9-10Z, THE STORMS WILL
CLEAR OUT AS WILL THE CEILINGS RECOVER. BY AROUND 11-13Z, WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 15KTS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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