987
FXUS63 KDDC 071618
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A TROUGH THIS MORNING LEADING TO
UNSEASONABLY COLD START TO THIS EARLY MAY DAY, WESTERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE AT SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA, AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. NBMS GREATEST
POPS (40-60%) ARE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
CHANCE OF ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY GLOBALS AND SOME OF THE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE THAT ARE COMING WITHIN RANGE. A LACK OF
OVERALL CAPE (<1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (<40 KNOTS) PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT MIXING
LEADING TO HIGH-BASED CONVECTION POTENTIAL, PER INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH THOSE STEEP LAPSE RATES, THINK A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ANY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
70S BEFORE A WARM UP COMMENCES INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, AND
ESPECIALLY ANY SEVERE RISKS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT 5-15 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM 09-15Z
FRIDAY FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTELY TO NORTHERLY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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