168  
FXUS63 KDDC 250512  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING STILL  
LOOKS LIKELY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF THIS DISCUSSION IS  
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS DESTABILIZING THE  
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY  
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO WITH SUBSEQUENT 700 MB SHORTWAVES  
ENTERING INTO BOTH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  
THESE WILL BE THE TWO AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS HAVE STAYED IN  
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KANSAS  
SHOULD START GOING UP AROUND 4-5 PM INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS FOR A  
FEW HOURS AND THEN EVOLVING INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THE  
SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCHES OR  
GREATER) AND A ISOLATED TORNADO OR LANDSPOUT THREAT ESPECIALLY  
AROUND THE FRONT AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A FLASH FLOODING  
THREAT AS THE STORMS TRAIN ALONG THE SAME AREAS. MODEL FORECAST  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG  
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. THE  
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO (AROUND  
PUEBLO TO TRINIDAD) AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO KANSAS SOMETIME AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 7  
PM. GIVEN THE FACT THEY SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
AND BE IN LINE FORM AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE MAINLY A WIND  
THREAT.  
 
FOR MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOESN'T MOVE ALL THE MUCH  
EASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO...BUT WHAT MOVEMENT IT DOES MAKE WILL  
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO COME ACROSS WESTERN  
KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE  
6-10 (C) RANGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING  
BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTH WINDS, CLOUD COVER, UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR,  
AND RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL  
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST  
INTO TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TURN INTO A CLOSED UPPER  
LOW. WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THE CLOSED LOW  
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN KANSAS  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO  
STAY COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTH WINDS ALOFT WILL  
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF  
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW GIVEN THE PRESENT TRACK SHOULD STAY  
OFF TO THE SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA AND TO THE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS. TOWARDS FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE  
IN CLIPPING OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THE BRUNT OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD  
GO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE  
WARMER AIR START TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO  
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THESE GUSTY NORTH  
WINDS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS  
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY. CEILINGS IN THE 500 TO 1500FT AGL  
LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILINGS THEN  
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT  
06Z MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE PREDAWN  
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
WITH THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN  
COLORADO, AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWEST AND NORTH  
CENTRAL KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT AND EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 CONTINUES TO  
EXIST. STORMS SHOULD LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 4 PM AND EVOLVE  
INTO A LINE AFTER 7 PM. SOME OF THE RAIN RATES IN THE STRONGER  
STORMS COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE STORMS TRAINING OVER  
THE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE HIGHEST PW AND  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATES CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS SO AREAS BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND WICHITA WILL HAVE THE  
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 55 61 48 73 / 70 60 20 10  
GCK 52 59 45 73 / 80 60 20 10  
EHA 49 58 47 76 / 70 50 10 10  
LBL 53 60 47 73 / 70 50 10 10  
HYS 55 61 48 73 / 90 70 20 20  
P28 62 69 53 73 / 70 70 30 20  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-  
079>081-089-090.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TATRO  
LONG TERM...TATRO  
AVIATION...BURGERT  
HYDROLOGY...TATRO  
 
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