260
FXUS63 KDDC 161609
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1009 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING DRY AND MILD THROUGH MID-WEEK
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY WITH EXPECTED STORM
SYSTEM
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
WHILE NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS, EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE
WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AMID WEAK RIDGING
AND SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE FA,
WITH PERHAPS REACHING LOW 70S ALONG THE KS/OK/CO BORDERS. LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. MONDAY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST WARM UP OF THE STRETCH WITH WIDESPREAD 70S, AND PERHAPS
NEARING 80 ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER, IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO AROUND
15C. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SUBTLE RIDGING MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DEEP
TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL BE OUR NEXT INCREASED CHANCE AT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA. NBM POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
UPWARDS TO 50-60% FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUTS ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH EJECTION, AND THUS SURFACE
LOW PLACEMENT AND TIMING AS WELL. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS EVIDENT IN NEARLY ALL SCENARIOS INTO THURSDAY, GIVING
CREDENCE TO THE INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS RATHER LOW WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING THE HIGHER MOISTURE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. SOME LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE FOR KHYS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PD. A FROPA IS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE TAF PD AS WELL TOMORROW. A 40 KT LLJ COULD LEAD TO OVERNIGHT
LLWS ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS. SE/S WINDS 10-20 KT BECOMING SW
TOMORROW MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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