370
FXUS63 KDDC 101005
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- RECORD HIGH ON MONDAY LIKELY TO BE CHALLENGES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, INCLUDING DODGE CITY, AS THE OCTOBER 12TH RECORD HIGH
OF 94F IS AROUND THE 33RD PERCENTILE OF LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE
SUITE.
- INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE STORM SYSTEM WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VERY WARM, AND EVEN BORDERLINE HOT, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE PLUME OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE RECORD HIGH
FOR DODGE CITY ON OCTOBER 12TH (MONDAY) IS 94F, WHICH IS AROUND THE
33RD PERCENTILE OFF THE 01Z RUN OF THE NBM, SO THE RECORD HIGH IS
WELL WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF "REASONABLE" FORECAST HIGH RANGE (25-
75TH PERCENTILE) BASED ON NBM PERCENTILE DATA. INCREASED CHALLENGES
IN THE FORECAST EXIST AFTER MONDAY AS A FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONT POSITION LATE TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL
LIKELY SLOW DOWN QUITE A BIT FACING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THAT BEING SAID, THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE QUITE COOL, SO SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DENSITY CURRENT WILL
EXIST, AND THE SLP TENDENCIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE
FAIRLY HIGH WHICH WOULD KEEP THE FRONT MOVING, PERHAPS MORE SO THAN
CURRENT MODELS SHOW. THUS, THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
HIGHS TUESDAY AS WELL AS PLACEMENT OF GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THANKS TO REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL
SYSTEM BECOME INFUSED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS A POLAR
TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET/TROUGH/UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MID NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING GOING INTO THE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AROUND 15Z INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS
THROUGH 01Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TATRO
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