404
FXUS63 KDDC 280500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, IN THE 30S, WITH
AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE, PENDING CLOUD COVER.
- AREAS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
FAVORING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS SW KS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WELL INTO MAY, UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SW KS, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, AS
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM MODELS SPREAD STRATUS SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF
SW KS BY SUNRISE, WHICH WILL ACT TO DETER RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
A DEGREE. STILL, COOL ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MID 30S NORTHWEST
ZONES NEAR SCOTT CITY.
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT MIDDAY TUESDAY, BUT DESPITE THE
LATE APRIL SUNSHINE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS, IN THE LOWER 60S. 00Z
MET/NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO COLD, WHILE 00Z MAV/GFS APPEAR TOO
WARM, SO THE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE.
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA WILL ACHIEVE UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WITH A 1025 MB CENTER OVER SW KS. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. STILL, MID 30S WILL BE COMMON
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE PENDING CLOUD
COVER. CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SUGGESTING RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING INTO
SW KS THURSDAY. NBM POPS ARE STILL VERY HIGH, IN THE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE CATEGORIES (70-90%) FAVORING THE WESTERN ZONES. NBM
PROBABILITY OF QPF > 0.10 IS ABOVE 80% WEST OF US 83 THURSDAY.
THAT SAID, AM CONCERNED NBM POPS ARE TOO HIGH. THE WARM
ADVECTION LIFTING PROCESS MAY BE QUITE FLEETING, AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SINKS SOUTHWARD, AND PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM CYCLONE OVER NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS, ALSO EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD DROUGHT.
CERTAINLY BY FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WILL CENTER ON
TEXAS, BUT WITH ALL OR MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE TO KEEP OUR
RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS LOW FOR RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME, DESPITE
VERY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS VERY HOSTILE TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 10TH.
WARM MOIST GULF AIR WILL NOT HAVE ACCESS TO SW KS ANYTIME SOON,
QUITE UNUSUAL GOING INTO MAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AIRPORTS THROUGH 12Z TUE. CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGESTS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE IFR, BUT THIS
WILL BE MONITORED. NO REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED. STRATUS WILL ERODE TO A BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY, WITH VFR EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS BY 18Z TUE.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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