500
FXUS63 KDDC 100433
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1133 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ONGOING
TONIGHT; TAPERING OFF THROUGH MID-MORNING
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO PONDING ON ROADS AND
ELEVATED STREAMS IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE NOTICEABLE COOLER TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AS WELL GIVEN WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
WAVES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AREA WIDE. WITH NO SYSTEMS IN THE VICINITY, WINDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, THOUGH PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE AT ANY KIND OF RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MIXED SOLUTIONS AMONG THE
GLOBAL AND SHORT RANGE MODELS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GFS AND ENS-
CONTROL ARE BULLISH ON THE IDEA, WITH HRRR, RRFS, AND NAMNEST
SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. I WOULD TEND TO
SIDE MORE ON THE CAM SOLUTIONS, BUT THE LATEST NBM HAS 20-40%
POPS FOR EASTERN COUNTIES, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FARTHER
EAST. SO WE WILL AT LEAST MAINTAIN MENTION OF CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY, THE NEXT CHANCE POPS
COME MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN TROUGHING BECOME MORE OF
A DOMINANT PATTERN REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, STORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TOWARD AREAS LIKE DDC, GCK, AND LBL. HYS WILL BE MORE NORTH OF
THE MORE CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OUT FROM 12-17Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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