218
FXUS63 KDDC 121156
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
556 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE SNOW COVER WILL DELAY THE WARMING FOR SOME.
- THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW COLD IT WILL BE THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WARMTH WILL BE TEMPERED BY LINGERING
SNOW COVER WHICH INCREASES ALBEDO. EXPECT 50S TO MID 60S TODAY
FOR AREAS WITH A BARE GROUND AND NOT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM
SNOW COVER. COOLER 40S ARE PREDICTED FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE LAST STORM SINCE THIS HAS
LIKELY NOT FULLY MELTED. EXPECT PLENTY OF BARE SPOTS IN BETWEEN
THE SMALL DRIFTS IN DODGE CITY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER 50S
FOR HIGHS.
A WARM AIR MASS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE 60S
FOR HIGHS AS MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE GONE. A FEW PLACES THAT
RECEIVED 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW (SUCH AS ULYSSES) MAY STAY IN
THE 50S. THE RECORD HIGH AT DODGE CITY IS 71 AND THIS IS
PROBABLY SAFE.
AFTER A COOLDOWN TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS FOR WEDNESDAY, MILDER
AIR WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW REDEVELOPS. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S (HAYS) TO UPPER 60S (LIBERAL).
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC AIR TO PUSH THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST.
AND THE COOL SURGES THAT DO OCCUR WON'T LAST LONG BEFORE
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS DEVELOP. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALL THE WAY
DOWN INTO KANSAS (AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW MELTS). ARCTIC AIR
MODIFIES EVEN MORE WHEN IT IS NOT MOVING OVER SNOW COVER ON ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD JOURNEY. ALL THAT SAID, IT
WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO BRING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVER
THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME EVEN THOUGH THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEANS KEEP IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF HERE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUS, KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
WEEKEND COULD BE COLDER THAN FORECASTED, ESPECIALLY IN HAYS.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CLOSE TO 0% AS SHOWN IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IN WINTER
LEADS TO PERSISTENTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5-11 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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