951
FXUS63 KDDC 022238 CCA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK INCLUDE WESTERN
COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A BETTER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS.
- HEAT WILL PEAK ON MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER 100
EXPECTED AND STRONGER SOUTH WINDS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK CLOSER TO AUGUST NORMALS, IN THE 90S, FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES WEST OF US 83 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- INTENSIFYING HEAT EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT A
PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OUTLINING LIGHT
WINDS. IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MIDSUMMER MORNING, BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY, WELL INTO THE
90S, AS MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST.
NOT AS COOL TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND A WARMER
ATMOSPHERE HOLDING ALL LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A PLUME OF VERY HOT AIR AT 850 MB OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL ARRIVE IN SW KS MONDAY, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 35C. ALL MODELS SHOW THIS STRONG WARMING
MONDAY, AND EVEN THE NBM HAS CORRECTLY TRENDING HOTTER. ADDED
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES TO THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE, WITH AFTERNOON
AIR TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 COMMON. SOME RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THREATENED, PARTICULARLY GARDEN CITY, WHICH HAS A
RECORD HIGH OF 104 AND A CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST OF 103.
FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE 50S
ALL ZONES MONDAY - EVEN THE EASTERN ZONES - SUCH THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX OF 105 OR GREATER) IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REQUIRED. MONDAY'S HEAT WILL BE MORE OF THE DRIER, HAIR
DRYER/BLOW TORCH VARIETY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTH
WINDS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO NEAR 992 MB IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SUSTAIN A TYPICAL KANSAS WINDY DAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING
20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. NBM PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES > 100 DEGREES, WEST OF US 83, IS NEAR 100% MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING,
WILL MAKE AT LEAST SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF SW KS
TUESDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE COLD FRONT'S PROGRESSION, WITH
12Z NAM NOTABLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH
SLOWER AS THE BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS HOT AIR IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, NBM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS AND A TEMPERATURE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA, RANGING FROM
NEAR 90 NORTH TO NEAR 103 BARBER COUNTY.
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY ARE VERY LIMITED, BUT NOT ZERO. A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
ENCOURAGE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY EVENING. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH
WFO NORMAN, ADDED SOME POPS TO THE NBM FORECAST FOR THIS.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK MORE ENCOURAGING, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE CORE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE REMAINING WELL WEST OF SW KS OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
THE RESULTING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. NBM POPS IN
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY WERE ACCEPTED. THE RIDGE REMAINING WEST
WILL ALSO ALLOW THE HEAT TO REMAIN IN CHECK, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, INSTEAD OF THE 100S.
EXPECT THE HEAT TO REBUILD AND ANY RAIN CHANCES END NEXT
WEEKEND, AS THE SUMMER RIDGE AXIS RETURNS TO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO 30 KTS BY 14-15Z MONDAY MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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