093
FXUS63 KDDC 192028
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SPRINKLES AND/OR BRIEF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL END
BY EARLY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY; 60-75% CHANCE OF 1"
OR MORE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
- A DRY WEEKEND FORECAST WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
PERIOD WILL AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS NOVEMBER. THE RAIN WILL END AS
THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A DRY BUT COOL WEEKEND. THIS BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER MAY
BE BRIEF GIVEN THWEEKEND OUTLOOK IS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. AT THE UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SOME COLD AIR NEXT WEEK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING, VIRGA AND/OR SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A 400MB 1.5PVU FEATURE, WHICH WAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 17Z TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. OUR MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA EARLIER TODAY.
ONCE THE CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING
OUR FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO OUR NEXT, MORE SIGNIFICANT, UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNTIED STATES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY AND AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS (>80%) THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT DEVELOPING BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL,
COMBINED WITH IMPROVING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS, IT APPEARS THAT
THE GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE IS STILL ON
TRACK WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOCUSES THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM FRIDAY AS A
400MB PVU MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
IMPROVES AND 850MB TO 700MB FORCING IMPROVES. MODELS ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE 850MB FRONTOGENESIS IMPROVING AND THE I320
THTA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THIS PVU FROM NEAR GARDEN
CITY/DODGE CITY TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BASED ON THIS EXPECTED
LIFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR OVER THE SAME AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
THIS SCENARIO FAVORS THE CURRENT HIGH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW AREAS IN THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TO EXCESS
2" (90TH PERCENTILE OF THE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION). CURRENTLY
THERE IS A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO
EXCEED 1 INCH IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER, AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVIER, RAINFALL
OVER THE SAME AREA WILL POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE OR LOW LYING AREAS. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTHWEST THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS, HOWEVER EVEN IN
THESE AREAS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS, THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.25
INCHES.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY, BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES AND A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COOL DOWN HOWEVER WILL BE BRIEF BECAUSE
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND
PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HIGHS BETWEEN 60 TO 65
DEGREES BOTH DAYS.
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN RETURN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE
SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM, BUT EVEN TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT OVER 60% OF THE CLUSTERS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS THIS NEXT UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY OUR NEXT, MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR THAT
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE ROCKIES INTO WESTERN KANSAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK (AROUND THANKSGIVING).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE DAY DUE TO A 400 MB PVU CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THIS ENHANCED LIFT WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY BUT THE MID
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TONIGHT, THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY GIVE RISE TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 2-3 MILES AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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