062
FXUS63 KDDC 230958
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER FARTHER
EAST.
- MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SPREADING FARTHER EAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- TRENDING DRIER AND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
- MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA, DO EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS LIKE THE
HRRR, 3 KM NAM, AND ARW ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE RELEGATED TO THIS AREA. FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST,
SUCH AS DODGE CITY, HAYS, AND PRATT... A MAINLY DRY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION NOT ENTERING THE PICTURE UNTIL AFTER
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN THE SHOWERY AREAS, TO 80S ELSEWHERE IN THE MORE DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.
THIS MAIN WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HERE, PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE EVEN FARTHER WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE 1.50-1.75"
RANGE. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH SOME AREAS
NEARING NEAR THE MAX STATISTICAL MARK. FORECAST LREF PROBABILITIES
FOR STORM TOTAL GREATER THAN 0.25" REALLY START TO PEAK OVER
90% FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. FOR
AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.75", THESE HIGHER LREF PROBABILITIES 50%
TO 75% ARE MAINLY KEPT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THIS AGREES WITH WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (SLIGHT RISK) ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY, AND THEN MORE PROBABILITIES (MARGINAL
RISK) SPREADING EAST FRIDAY. EXAMINING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM
BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS... DO ECHO THIS PATTERN WITH THE WETTEST
SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES, AND WITH
ENSEMBLE RAIN AMOUNTS THEN LOWERING FARTHER EAST. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND OR HIGHER THAN 1" FOR
ELKHART, LIBERAL AND GARDEN CITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 1"
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
COURSE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT POSITION OF THE STORMS, IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING
OCCURRING, AND JUST EXACTLY HOW STRONG STORM STRENGTH WILL BE
GIVEN AT ANY PARTICULARLY TIME. PLEASE CONTINUE TO KEEP UPDATED
WITH THE FORECAST, AS THESE AMOUNTS WILL SURELY CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOOKING PAST THIS WET PERIOD, THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS START TO FORECAST DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION FOR A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY SPEAKING, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. BEYOND
THIS, ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE DISTURBANCES AND MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 457 AM
CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE DDC, LBL, AND GCK TERMINALS
AFTER 18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. THE RAIN WILL DROP THE CLOUD
CEILINGS TO MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AFTER 00Z THROUGH 12Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TATRO
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