569
FXUS63 KDDC 221009
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER (BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS) TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THIS WEEK
WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
- LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NIGHTLY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER RISK
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- THE NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY BREAK TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND, A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD VERY HOT AND
WINDY WEATHER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JUNE. THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A
DISPLACED UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS ALONG WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FROM GENERALLY THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS, FAVORING
MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) IMPACTING WESTERN KANSAS.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A HEALTHY MCS CONTINUED TO PULL AWAY FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS MOVING INTO THE HEART OF OKLAHOMA AS OF 06Z MONDAY.
IN ITS WAKE, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND CONTINUED MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN,
FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUD, WHICH WAS
ALREADY EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS PER GOES NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB AND METAR OBSERVATIONS. THE STRATUS WILL MOST
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE HREF MAINTAINS FAIRLY
HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 3KFT OR LOWER CEILINGS EVEN THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
(40-60% ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS). THE
STRATUS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT EARLY-MID AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
DIURNAL VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING IN THIS PATTERN WILL ENHANCE UPSLOPE LIFT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OUT TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. IT DOES NOT APPEAR, THOUGH, THAT
MONDAY NIGHT'S MCS EVENT WILL BE AS ROBUST AS THE LAST TWO NIGHTS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER OVERALL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS, THE
CONTINUED ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR AT LEAST WEAK MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS IS BORNE
OUT WITH THE SPC SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO,
TOUCHING THE WESTERN KS LINE WITH MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WELL TO
THE SOUTH, CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
HIGH PLAINS SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY/NIGHT THIS
PATTERN HOLDS, AND LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL HOLD THROUGH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BREAK IN THIS PATTERN WILL COME ONCE A
STRONG PACIFIC POLAR JET ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH ALL GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW, STARTING NEXT WEEKEND, EFFECTIVELY
SHIFTING THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WESTERN
KANSAS SEES AN INCREASE IN HOT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
DEPENDING ON TIMING, THIS PATTERN DEFINITELY SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF TRIPLE-DIGIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE REMAINS
MUCH TO UNPACK IN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME FRAME, OF COURSE, BUT
THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS OF A VERY HOT PATTERN COMING UP NEXT
WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS PRODUCING IFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING/SCATTERING
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN GENERALLY
AFTER 17-19Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-DAY ARE FORECAST
TO TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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