221
FXUS63 KDDC 050002
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE,
FOR THE NEXT 10-15 DAYS.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY
DECEMBER NORMALS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ELEVATED NORTH WINDS, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR SUNDAY.
- STRONG WARMING TREND EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE EROSION OF THE STRATUS
ACROSS SW KS, A PROCESS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET,
ALBEIT A SLOW PROCESS WITH THE WEAKEST SUNLIGHT OF THE YEAR.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DESPITE
THE ADDITION OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE RECIRCULATED
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO THE 20S AT SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HOLD NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 20S, THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY, HELD UP BY LIGHT SWLY DOWNSLOPE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS,
NEAR 50, FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
ABOVE 0C. THIS, DESPITE LIGHT WINDS TRENDING NORTHERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK DRY COLD FRONT.
MODELS FORECAST FURTHER WARMING SATURDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE, SATURDAY WILL BE THE PICK DAY OF THE WEEKEND. BEHIND
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER, THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE THROUGH
SW KS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ELEVATED/STRONG NORTH WINDS, AT LEAST
STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE. NORTH 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST
NEAR 40 MPH, BUT NOCTURNAL TIMING SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THIS
MOMENTUM ABOVE THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER.
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, BUT ONLY SEASONABLY COLD,
NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR DECEMBER, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S, TO LOWER 40S WEST.
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE AVERAGES REMAIN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING A STRONG WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SWLY DOWNSLOPE OVER VERY DRY GROUND (ESPECIALLY BY THEN), NBM IS
LIKELY NOT WARM ENOUGH TUESDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 70S POSSIBLE WEST. THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH MORE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND A COOLER WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS ECMWF/EPS HAVE ZERO QPF IN, OR EVEN NEAR,
SW KS FOR THE NEXT 15 DAYS, THROUGH DECEMBER 18TH. THIS IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE WARM/DRY FORECAST, WITH THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE CPC CONTINUING WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (> 70-80%) OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO
MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
EARLY THIS EVENING, A NARROW AXIS OF STRATUS CLOUD IN THE 2000
TO 3000 FOOT LAYER CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS, INCLUDING
OVER LBL, GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER
OUT AS DRIER DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS IMPINGE ON WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT ALL TERMINALS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME VFR TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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