523  
FXUS63 KDDC 110700  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
200 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TYPICAL MID JULY WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LIGHT WINDS.  
 
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING A  
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 
- COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REDUCE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,  
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER COOLDOWN ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDNIGHT INDICATED A MCS  
DISSIPATING OVER KANSAS. DDC RECORDED A HEAT BURST FROM THE  
DECAYING MCS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE TEMPERATURE RISING  
FROM 77 TO 92 AT 1230 AM CDT. REMAINING SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE  
CLOUD DEBRIS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SW KS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.  
 
TYPICAL MID JULY, SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY HOT IN  
THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN 15 MPH,  
WHICH WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO HEAT IMPACTS FOR THOSE WORKING  
OUTDOORS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT  
NORTHEAST BEHIND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT DURING THE DAY.  
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY 7 PM,  
WHERE SOME MODELS SUCH AS 00Z NAM SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS MAY  
DEVELOP. ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS REDUCED POPS BEFORE 7 PM,  
AND ONLY KEPT MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE (<25%) NEAR THE OKLAHOMA  
BORDER/SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH MAY  
GENERATE A STORM BEFORE 7 PM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY  
DAYLIGHT FRIDAY.  
 
COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SW KS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL TIMING, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE  
ADVANCING BOUNDARY AS INSTABILITY WANES IS UNCLEAR. WHAT IS MUCH  
MORE CLEAR IS POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY 7 PM, AND THESE  
WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER MCS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHOW AN INCREASING  
TREND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FAVORING WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE  
EXPECTED MCS WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK FROM COLORADO. SPC MARGINAL  
5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY IS WARRANTED WITH THIS EXPECTED  
ACTIVITY; HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE  
COLD FRONT'S OUT OF PHASE TIMING WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  
 
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
SATURDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WORKING  
TOGETHER TO HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE  
LOWER 80S. THE FORECAST HIGH AT DDC SATURDAY IS 82, AND NORMAL  
IS 94. 00Z NAM GUIDANCE IS MUCH COOLER, HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN  
THE 60S AND 70S, PARTICULARLY IF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS/RAIN CAN  
HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY. NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. NBM POPS DO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND  
ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, BUT NBM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM IF  
NAM VERIFIES. INSTABILITY IS DISPLACED MAINLY SOUTH OF SW KS,  
AND SPC MARGINAL 5% SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY IS CONFINED TO AREAS  
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY.  
 
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OF COURSE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,  
WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPERATURES  
CLIMBING INCREMENTALLY EACH DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES BACK TO  
NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEAR MINIMAL TO  
ABSENT, AND DRY NBM POPS REFLECT THIS. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND  
GFS/ECMWF FORECAST A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING.  
THIS WILL FORCE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO SW KS DURING THE  
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME RANGE, WITH A RETURN OF SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER AFTERNOONS IN THE 80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 04Z SHOWED A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE  
SYSTEM (MCS) DECAYING OVER SW KS. REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS AND  
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS OR DISSIPATED  
BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD (06Z FRI), FOLLOWED BY A  
GRADUAL REMOVAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z FRI.  
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT FRIDAY, WITH  
VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT MAY HOLD  
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT, SO KEPT THIS SET OF TAFS DRY.  
 
 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...TURNER  
AVIATION...TURNER  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KS Page
Main Text Page