732
FXUS63 KDDC 272242
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
442 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING IN EARLY TONIGHT, THE WRF MODELS AS
WELL AS THE RAP/HRRR MODELS RAPIDLY DEVELOP LOW VISIBILITY IN FZFG
OVER SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING, THE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. WITH EVEN SUBTLE MIXING OVERNIGHT THE LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
MARGINAL WARMING BEYOND THAT POINT. COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AGAIN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH PROBABLY WARMER TEENS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021
A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
(THURSDAY AND FRIDAY) WITH THE DOWNSLOPE INCREASING EACH DAY. HIGHS
BY FRIDAY SHOULD EXPAND 60S AS FAR NORTH AS DDC AS THE SNOW WILL
RAPIDLY MELT AWAY EVERYWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FURTHEST NORTH
COUNTIES AROUND HAYS AND WAKEENEY WHERE SEVERAL INCHES REMAINED
FROM THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM EVENT ON MONDAY.
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE WINDY WITH A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WE HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BEING WELL
INTO THE OLD WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH
AND EXPECTED COMMONLY EXCEEDING 50 MPH ESPECIALLY I THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STRONG
CENTRAL PLAINS WINTER STORM, WHICH YET IS STILL OUTSIDE THE TYPICAL
7 DAY FORECAST, HOWEVER WILL BE OF INTEREST TO WATCH AS THE THE
TIMEFRAME OF THE MODELS BECOMES CLOSER, AND TYPICALLY MORE SKILLFUL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST WED JAN 27 2021
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TO START THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 6KTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
AFTER 04Z, FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP NEARS HYS DROPPING VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS TO MVFR UNDER NEAR NON-EXISTENT WINDS AND AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE WITH THE RECENT SNOW PACKED ON THE GROUND. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AFTER 08Z, STARTING TO ERODE THE FOG
AND CEILINGS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR TOWARDS SUNRISE AFTER 12Z.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AFTER 16Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS THROUGH 23Z BEFORE RELAXING TOWARDS SUNSET WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND INTO THE NEXT CYCLE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL CLIP EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WITH HYS BEING THE ONLY
LIKELY SITE TO HAVE ANY IMPACT. NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 13 45 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 13 45 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 22 53 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 17 52 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 7 37 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
P28 17 45 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...LOWE
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