036
FXUS63 KDDC 302312
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
512 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
- NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVENT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REBOUNDED NICELY OFF THE MORNING
LOWS, WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UPPER BOUND OF ALL
THE NBM GUIDANCE (ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE). THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL
IN PROLONGED DRY PERIODS WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THIS,
WE HAVE GONE WITH SUBSTANTIAL 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
WARMEST AREA WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS
MAXIMIZED OFF THE BLACK MESA REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
FAIRLY HIGH-ZONAL INDEX IN THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN, PREVENTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM REACHING AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS, THUS THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF A LARGER SCALE PATTERN CHANGE SHIFTING TOWARD MEAN TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS BEYOND DAY 7, BUT WE NEED
MORE MODEL RUNS TO GAIN ANY APPRECIABLE CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN
CHANGE SUPPORTING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY 18Z WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON SHORT TERM MODELS/BUFR SOUNDINGS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT
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