346
FXUS63 KDDC 112350
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
550 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL UNCLEAR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. CURRENTLY
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE GREATER
THAN 1/2 INCH SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY.
- FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A FAIRLY ZONAL 500MB
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING
TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO
THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS HAS KEPT OUR WINDS LIGHT EARLIER THIS
MORNING. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL BE OUR MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S,
THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
ON THURSDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP BEGINS TO SHIFT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM, LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD AS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UNSEASONABLY WARM 850MB
TEMPERATURES SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS
THE WARM AIR SPREADS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, IMPROVING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, MAINLY AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
GREATER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CROSSES NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY/SATURDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED, BUT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ONCE IT MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GIVEN THE
TIMING OF A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE
ROCKIES AND MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. DESPITE THIS
UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE AND LIFT
(ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA) WILL IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THIS LIFT WILL OCCUR UNDER
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
(30-40 KNOTS AT 850MB) DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS (PWATS OF 0.6-0.8 INCHES). PWATS LESS THAN 0.5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE DODGE CITY AREA. GIVEN
ALL THIS IT STILL APPEARS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS
LIKELY (>70%) ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...HOWEVER THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS (60-70%) FOR THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY END UP
BEING LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS MORNING THE LATEST
NBM/WPC GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO REFLECT THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF DODGE CITY. THE
LATEST NBM CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED 1/2 INCH IS NOW
40-60% EAST AND SOUTH OF DODGE CITY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES NEAR PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. FOR THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
HAS DECREASED TO 20-40%. THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.1 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGH, GREATER THAN 60% ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST. ON SUNDAY, THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE AMPLIFICATION IS DRIVEN BY OUR
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD DELIVER ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN KANSAS
(HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S) ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CLIMB TO 10-15C. ALSO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT WARM AND DRY PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
GOOD AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE ONSET OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL DECREASE
DOWN TO BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. A RATHER SUBTLE WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR AROUND LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER MINOR BUMP UP IN WIND
SPEED, BUT OTHERWISE NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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