443
FXUS63 KDDC 200300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGH TUESDAY, DELIVERING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND
PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER AFTERNOONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
100+ DEGREES WILL BE COMMON. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY, WHERE THE HEAT INDEX MEETS OR
EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES.
- SW KS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY
ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST APPROACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES.
- HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE LATE JULY NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL LONGWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD
OUT OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO A
NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES 850-MB WARMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
ONLY BE AROUND 1 DEGREE C DESPITE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS INCHING UP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL SUPPORT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON, FOSTERING ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK,
TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL POSE LITTLE THREAT OTHER
THAN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS SUNSET APPROACHES, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH MONDAY MORNING
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DAYTIME MONDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE
THIS EVOLUTION IS SUBTLE, THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD
ENGENDER MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING AT 850-MB, AND THEREFORE RESULT IN
A LARGER JUMP IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S/NEAR 100.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ROTATE ANTICYCLONICALLY FIRST
FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND FINALLY WESTWARD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNER REGION. THE END RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION WILL BE CONTINUED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO LOW 100S, AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FAVORING OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ031-046-065-
066-079>081-089-090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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