872
FXUS63 KDDC 122238
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM
AROUND 90 DEGREES ON MONDAY TO THE MID 90S BY LATE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
IS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO BE NEAR 100 FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING A 500 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW PRESENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO THE
700MB LEVEL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, KEEPING THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND AS A
RESULT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL NOT MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS DUE TO A RISE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN COLORADO IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY, GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW THE 700MB LEVEL AS THE 500MB
HIGH/RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL
TRENDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN LOOK FORWARD TO
HIGHS AROUND 90 ON MONDAY AND THEN WARMING INTO THE 90 TO 95
DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MILD FOR
MID JULY AS THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NEAR
95.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE
INTO INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS FAVOR A DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST DOWN SLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS SHIFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLY A BETTER WARM UP TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN KEEPING THE
850MB TEMPERATURES THE CLIMATOLOGIST MEANS LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE WARMING THEM INTO THE 85TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE RANGE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND NOT ONLY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEKEND BUT IT ALSO
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR SOME AREAS ON
SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO BE 100 DEGREES OR A LITTLE HIGHER WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED WEAK, BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOTTED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AVIATION WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET.
PREVAILING WIND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALBEIT NOT ALL THAT STRONG (12 KNOTS OR
LESS FOR THE MOST PART). FLIGHT CATEGORY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND AS THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE AREA ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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