379
FXUS63 KDDC 010500
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
..UPDATED SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
JUNE PICKS UP WHERE MAY LEFT OFF, WITH MORE RAIN. MIDNIGHT RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SPREADING
NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION
LINED UP, UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BACK INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. 568 DM CLOSED LOW NEAR GRAND CANYON, ARIZONA AT
MIDNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
SUNRISE, WITH VARIOUS WEAK VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS, AND INTERACTING WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. ALL MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES SHOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE, AND POPS
AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ARE WARRANTED.
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE ONLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INCREMENTALLY THURSDAY, TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY 7 PM. SWLY MIDLEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE, A BIT STRONGER THAN RECENTLY, AVERAGING 20-25 KTS AT
500 MB. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, ESPECIALLY RELATIVE TO THE TIME OF
YEAR, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AGAINST CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION. STILL, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST, WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60, PRECIPITABLE WATER VERY HIGH IN THE 1.2-1.4
INCH RANGE, AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE UPWARDS OF
2000 J/KG. AS SUCH, AN INCREASE IN POP COVERAGE IS WARRANTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. QPF FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS
REMAIN WILDLY DIVERGENT, TO BE EXPECTED IN THESE MODESTLY FORCED
REGIMES, WHICH LIMITS PREDICTABILITY OF WHERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MATERIALIZE. JUST AS ONE EXAMPLE, GLOBAL
MODELS FOCUS ON THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE
00Z ARW STRONGLY FAVORS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. WE DO HAVE CONFIDENCE
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AT LEAST BE SCATTERED AROUND,
AND THOSE THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL WITH ANY
LINEAR SEGMENTS. CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL MORE THAN SUN ON THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE, IN THE 70S (NORMAL IS MID 80S).
AFTER 10 AM, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE, GUSTING 30-35 MPH
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE ROCKIES MIDLEVEL CYCLONE
EJECTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, SEVERAL MODELS SUCH AS ECMWF
SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER/NEAR SW KS DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY QUITE ACTIVE, AS THE
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE SLOWS ITS ADVANCE NORTH OF DENVER, AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ON ITS SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY ROTATES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING. EXTENDED NAM ALSO SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST 5% MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY FROM SPC IS WARRANTED, AGAIN WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE HYDROLOGY
ISSUES IN A CONTINUED MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
KINEMATICS AND SHEAR STILL LOOK MARGINAL, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FRIDAY FOR A HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS. OTHERWISE, SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS, AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
KEY MESSAGE IN THE LATER PERIODS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WATER RELATED ISSUES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AND ESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS MOVEMENT COINCIDES WITH A 500MB HIGH
SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR ONGOING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND THE INTERMITTENT INFLUENCE
OF MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW, WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT
IN THE REGION PERIODICALLY.
IN ADDITION TO THE DAILY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...WATER ISSUES
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN CONCERN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
CONCERN IS SUPPORTED BY THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE GENERAL LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH IS WHERE ONGOING RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR, THE MAJORITY OF QPF CLUSTERS FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE SAME LOCATIONS OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, AS WELL
AS THE AGREEMENT ON PAST 24-HOUR TRENDS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AND SHIFT OR TAILS AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES . ALL THIS IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
THE RISK OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
INDIVIDUALS WITH WEEKEND PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WATER
RELATED ISSUES IN CERTAIN AREAS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
RADAR IMAGERY AT 0340Z INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EHA TO LBL, AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, ALL
LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE
LBL TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND INCLUDED A CONVECTIVE
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER. TO VARYING DEGREES, MODELS FORECAST RAIN
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SW KS
THROUGH 12Z THU. INCLUDED VCTS/CB/VCSH WORDING ONLY, WITH VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS ON ANY SPECIFIC AIRPORT. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF, WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS PREVAILING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z THU, AGAIN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. AFTER
15Z THU, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING
25-28 KTS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z THU, BUT ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS/CB MENTION FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 60 77 59 78 / 40 60 60 70
GCK 58 79 58 77 / 30 50 60 60
EHA 57 75 57 78 / 60 40 30 30
LBL 58 78 58 79 / 50 50 40 50
HYS 62 79 60 81 / 30 50 50 70
P28 65 78 62 80 / 30 40 30 60
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TURNER
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...TURNER
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