438
FXUS63 KDDC 272215
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES NEARING THE CENTURY MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK
LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
MUCH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SREF POINTS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
WHILE SINKING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, SETTING
UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE, A PROJECTED SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. ALTHOUGH POOLING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
SAID DRYLINE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY, A LESS
THAN ROBUST FLOW ALOFT (JET CORE REMAINING WELL OFF TO OUR WEST,
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS) COMBINED WITH MODEST CAPPING BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF/NBM.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR OR ALONG THE DRYLINE. DESPITE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS YET AGAIN TUESDAY, MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(20-30%) RETURN LATE IN THE DAY AS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DO SHOW
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION CYCLING THROUGH THE AXIS OF
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON. H5 VORT MAXIMA TO THE
EAST ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS,
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/DRYLINE SITUATED SOMEWHERE
GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
THE LATEST NBM PAINTS A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING
0.1 OF AN INCH GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES DRAW WARMER AIR BACK INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S(F) WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 60-80% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 75F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TO A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 80F IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE
WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES
UP NEAR 30C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 35C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A WIDESPREAD BETTER THAN 90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95F, EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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