989
FXUS63 KDDC 141021
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED POP UP STORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
05Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A 600 DM HIGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IN IOWA. THESE FEATURES ARE LEADING TO
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF A EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN AROUND 600 DM UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. THIS REX BLOCK
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE CLOSED OFF FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND COMBINING WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
HIGH WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO AT TIMES PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK. SHORT TERM MODELS AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO QPF FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (~10%) OF SOME POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW FROM EAST TO WEST. COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED SO MOST AREAS WON'T RECEIVE THE RAINFALL. WINDS SHOULD
LIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS STANDARDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE STAGNANT HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND GUSTS BY THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD
BE IN THE 30 MPH RANGE.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES SHOW A BREAKING DOWN OF
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND A BUILDING RIDGE AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
AIR TO ENTER INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND WITH NBM
OUTLOOKS SHOWING HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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