280
FXUS63 KDDC 091018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
518 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INFLUENCE THE REGION LEADING TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY LATE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AXIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ALOFT, THE FLOW IS PRIMARILY ZONAL WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD TILT.
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ABOVE THE CWA WITH A SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS. WITH THE LOW BEING TOO WEAK AND FAR SOUTH TO TANGIBLY IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA, THE PATTER OF SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS INTO MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER
IN THE MID-80S AND POTENTIALLY PUSH 90 DEGREES NEAR THE END. NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRESENT IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY NOTABLE
WEATHER FORECAST IN THIS 4 DAY STRETCH IS STRONGER WINDS INTO THIS
WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-25
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS ALBEIT 5 MPH OR SO STRONGER. THE SILVER
LINING FROM A WEATHER PERSPECTIVE IS THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 25% AND QUELL MOST OF THE FIRE WEATHER RISK.
THAT SAID, TAKE TRADITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS INCLUDING EXTRA
CARE WITH IGNITION SOURCES.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WEST COAST INTO
MONDAY. CURRENT LONG-RANGED MODELS SHOW SCATTERED STORMS
POTENTIALLY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. BEHIND THESE
STORMS, MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF STORMS BEHIND
THE INITIAL ONE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS ARE
STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS STAGE.
ENSEMBLES HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT
AROUND 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE TWO DAYS. THIS SHOULD BE
TREATED AN A VERY PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE WITH A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVED.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, THE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 80S AND SLOWLY
DECREASING BY THE DAY UNTIL THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S. NO OTHER
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OTHER THAN
THE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS
THROUGH 01Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...TATRO
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