204
FXUS63 KDDC 042222
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
522 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN TO
THE 70S. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THAT LOWS MAY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MIDDLE 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WILL THEN BE
LINGERING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY OCTOBER AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID
40S IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY. HIGHS
ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID
70S.
ON TUESDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
WHAT COOLER AIR THAT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY
WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WARMER DOWNSLOPE FLOW AIR
SPREADS EAST. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE 20 TO 25C RANGE BY LATE DAY. BASED ON THIS WARMUP AND AN
AFTERNOON OF SUNSHINE THE HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 80S AS ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES
AND THE PAST TREND OF GUIDANCE BEING TOO COOL WITH IT HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN LATE
WEEK AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS
THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL INCREASE. ALONG WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS LATE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE
WARMER 850-700MB TEMPERATURES TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT, NOT ONLY IS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEK STILL LOOK
REASONABLE (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S), BUT WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGHS BEING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AROUND 08Z-09Z STARTING FROM KDDC AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD
TOWARDS KHYS, KGCK, AND KLBL. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVAERGE
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIND GUSTS
WILL KICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR ALL AIRPORTS
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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