507
FXUS63 KDDC 041731
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, NORTHERN
COUNTIES TOMORROW, AND SCATTERED STORMS ON SATURDAY
- THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
- HIGHS WARM UP TO THE 100S EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RESIDE THERE
FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE FLOW MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AND
PULLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSUMING THE MORNING CLOUD
COVER ERODES AS FORECAST, HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH SOME AREAS REACHING THE 90S. THE STORM RISK AREA HAS
BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD FOR LATER TODAY OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST
CYCLES. NEARLY EVERY 12Z CAM HAS CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG HIGHWAY
281 OR EASTWARD WITH MANY LIKE THE HRRR KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA
DRY. IF ENOUGH CAPE CAN RECOVER WITH SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
(4-5 PM), IT WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVECTION
TO FIRE STRONG STORMS. WHILE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY CONDUCIVE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE AT BEST. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE IN 1-1.5" HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS IF THEY
OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, IF TRENDS
HOLD THE CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHED OUT OF THE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
DRY.
FRIDAY WILL NOT LOOK TOO DISSIMILAR ASIDE FROM WARMER HIGHS AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS FOR VIRTUALLY
THE ENTIRETY OF SW KANSAS IS IN THE 90S. CAMS HAVE QUITE SPLOTCHY
AREAS OF CONVECTION, BUT THE LOOSE AVERAGE OF THE STORM PLACEMENT IS
ALONG A SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AXIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WHILE THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY STORMS IN THE
AREA REMAIN MARGINAL SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, THE AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
HAVE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IF/HOW THE MESOSCALE FACTORS CHANGE TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
HIGH END STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE LIMITED
IN THE SHEAR SUPPLY WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD TAMPER A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT.
SATURDAY IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THE NAMNST HAS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER IN THE
EVENINGS AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO SW KANSAS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE ON REPEAT WITH CAPE AND
MOISTURE WHILE LACKING SHEAR. AGAIN A MARGINAL/SUB-SEVERE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED. EARLY ON THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
CAPITALIZE ON THE INSTABILITY AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS; EVEN THIS MAY MISS OUT ON THE CWA AND OCCUR IN OKLAHOMA. IT
IS MORE THAN POSSIBLE THAT THE NAMNST IS ONLY SO BULLISH BECAUSE IT
UNDERSTATES THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THIS MAY SQUASH THE SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF THE STORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND WILL RETURN A DRIER PATTERN WITH AN
EXTRAORDINARILY WARM WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS STILL
FAIRLY POORLY RESOLVED WITH A LOT OF RUN TO RUN UNCERTAINTY AND
DETAILS WILL BE SPARSE UNTIL THE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY DECREASES.
MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WITH A SOLID OPPORTUNITY (>40% VIA
ENSEMBLES) FOR 100 DEGREE HIGHS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. BY TUESDAY,
HIGHS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA HOLD THOSE CHANCES OR BETTER WITH
MOST OF THE CWA HOLDING FORECASTED TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS. THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SEE SIMILAR HIGHS. IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED ON WHETHER A HEAT RISK THREAT WILL DEVELOP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LINGERING
LOWERED CLOUD MAY BE PRESENT TO START THE PERIOD, BUT CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NOW LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS. SOME
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE VIA
ENSEMBLES), BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY EASTWARD OF ALL
TERMINALS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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