028
FXUS63 KDDC 041912
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OF
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
- LITTLE TO NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN POOR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
- WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
FOR HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A FAIRLY LARGE EARLY MORNING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
ROLLED EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH
LEFT IN ITS WAKE A REGION OF HIGHER PRESSURE AND MORE STABLE AIR.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS PUSHED SOUTH WELL INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SUCH THAT EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 84 TO 87F RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WINDS NORTH OF THE ORIGINAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AIR SHOULD PREVENT RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR 27-COUNTY
WARNING AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 12Z GSL RRFS ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM CERTAINLY SUPPORT THIS NOTION KEEPING ALL THE ORGANIZED, DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO A SMALL TO
PERHAPS MODEST MCS, BUT TRENDS IN LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW ANY MCS WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
INSTABILITY, LARGELY DUE TO THE FACT THAT RECOVERY BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S MCS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO COME BY.
LATE WEEKEND (SUNDAY) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOME VERY WEAK -- ALIGNING QUITE WELL WITH EARLY JULY
CLIMATOLOGY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY GET HOTTER EACH DAY STARTING MONDAY WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE LARGER SCALE SUMMER
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL FINALLY BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, CENTERED ACROSS UTAH INTO COLORADO EVENTUALLY EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IN THIS PATTERN, AND NOT SQUARELY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS, SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE A SETUP ANY
TIME SOON WITH MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW OF 100+ HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND SCALE OF THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT ROLLED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS, MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS WAS IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER
PRESSURE SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS, AND EVEN
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, ARE NOW MUCH LESS LIKELY. THUS, THIS 18Z
SET OF TAFS WILL NO LONGER HAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
ANY OF THE FOUR TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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