969
FXUS63 KDDC 031512
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1012 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
..UPDATED AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
LOOKING AT THE 850-700 MB LEVELS THERE IS A WEAK/BROKEN ZONE OF
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH THE CAMS APPEAR TO SEIZE ON THIS MORNING WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SCOTT CITY THROUGH GARDEN
CITY AND LIBERAL (COULD MISS ANY OF THESE URBAN LOCATIONS IF
WIDELY SCATTERED). TRENDS KEEP THE CONVECTION ADVANCING SLOWLY
EAST BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR IN THE POST
SUNRISE HOURS.
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE/MORNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL LEND ITSELF TO A COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY IN THIS ALREADY COOL ANOMALY MID SUMMER SETUP. THE DIRECT
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE SOLUTIONS RELEGATE
THE HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S. THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SAY UP TO A
20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS BETWEEN WHERE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
PERSIST AND THE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE HRRR
AND THE ARW HOLD CONVECTION OFF ALTOGETHER TONIGHT, WHICH IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE NAM4KM/NMM SOLUTIONS WHICH MAY BE OVERDOING
CONVECTION THIS MORNING AS WELL. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET FOR ANY SHOWERS
AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY EVENING BASED
LARGELY ON THE MODEL TRENDS. THE FRONT RANGE CONVECTION APPEARS TO
FAIL TO REACH THE WESTERN KS COUNTIES BASED ON CAMS WHILE THE
SAME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM MAY BE AT PLAY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
THE COOL PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 80S. THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD INDICATE A BETTER
SETUP FOR STORMS TO ADVANCE FARTHER EAST ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE LOW LEVEL 850 MB UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IN THE EXTENDED. BEYOND THIS, INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING INHERENT CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CHALLENGES EACH DAY GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST CYCLE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF SW KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, REPLACED
BY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LAYER
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW,
SHORT TERM MODELS SPREAD 5-7K FT CIGS INTO HYS/GCK/DDC TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AFTER 15Z TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 79 60 82 60 / 40 10 10 50
GCK 79 60 82 59 / 80 10 10 40
EHA 84 62 88 61 / 10 20 10 40
LBL 82 61 87 61 / 60 10 10 40
HYS 78 59 79 59 / 10 10 10 50
P28 81 62 83 61 / 10 20 10 60
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...TURNER
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