631
FXUS63 KDDC 181912
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
212 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) PICK UP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION***
CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MEADE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PAWNEE AND
STAFFORD COUNTIES. A FEW CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED, WITH THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTION MORE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A BRIEF LANDSPOUT COULD OCCUR ON ANY
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE VORTICITY, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND STATIONARY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY.
AFTER AROUND 3-4 PM, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE ROBUST STORMS DOWN AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. PER
MESOANALYSIS, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-55 KNOTS AND MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE
HAIL, AND A TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE, ESPECIALLY
AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE EVENING. THE ULTIMATE
EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CONTINGENT ON IF
ACTIVITY CAN STAY MORE DISCRETE. THE CEILING IS HIGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. NEAR THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS (50-70% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TODAY AS THE SREF
INDICATES AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH QUICKLY CYCLING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FARTHER UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING. IN
RESPONSE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BEING DISLODGED SOUTHWARD
BY A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGING IN FROM THE NORTH. AMPLE
MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S(F) TO NEAR 70F WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE A
LESS THAN ROBUST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (<50KT), THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WEAKENING CAP AS LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FROM PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. THE HREF SUPPORTS THIS SHOWING A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR
QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LARNED TO MINNEOLA LINE BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS MUCH COOLER
AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY/MID-EVENING,
DROPPING THE H85 5C ISOTHERM WELL DOWN INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DIPPING
BELOW 45F ACROSS THE REGION IN QUESTION TO A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 50F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH THE UPPER 30S(F) POSSIBLE OUT
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS REINFORCE A
THE COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONSIDERING THE HREF SHOWS
A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 65F IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
KANSAS TO A BETTER THAN 90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 65F FARTHER SOUTH
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S(F).
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN VICINITY OF KHYS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON AS PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD, THEN RETURN TO VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE
STRATUS SCATTERS OUT. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
IN VICINITY OF KLBL, KDDC, AND KGCK THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PROJECTED TO
ADVANCE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF A KHYS TO KDDC LINE. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NORTH OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 23-01Z
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ074>078-
084>088.
UPDATE...BENNETT
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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