944
FXUS63 KDDC 041750
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
BRINGING STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS
- SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING
- INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5-1 INCH IN
PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND SNOWFLAKES COULD BE MIXING IN NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
18Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN INTENSIFYING SUB TROPICAL
JET OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW IS AROUND GARDEN CITY AND HAS BEEN
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
TONIGHT MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
SOUTH WHICH WILL GIVE MOMENTUM TO A STOUT COLD FRONT. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND DEEPEN TO AROUND
996 MB. POST FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15-
25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POTENTIALLY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPOTTY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED MAINLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE
THE BETTER MID LEVEL LIFT SETUP WILL BE. POP CHANCES WILL BE 20-30%
WITH QPF VALUES OF A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS ARE ANTICIPATED. IT WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER ON TUESDAY AS THE CLOUD COVER, COLD AIR
ADVECTION, AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DIURNAL
HEAT. HIGHS SHOULD BE A GOOD 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN HIGHS ON MONDAY
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.
WEDNESDAY SHORT TERM AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS HAVE THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WINDS INCREASING TO
120-130 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID
LEVELS STARTING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF
LIFT SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0 TO -1 (C) WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER MAY SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN FALL. WITH THE WARM GROUND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WHAT FALLS AS SNOW COULD AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE RAINFALL AS ENS AND GEFS OUTPUT IN THE
VARIOUS MODELS HAVE A PRETTY CONSISTENT BULLSEYE OF HIGHER QPF
ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF AN ELKHART TO DODGE TO HAYS LINE. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH REFLECT THIS TOO WITH A 60-
90% OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH. PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF
RAIN HAVE ALSO COME UP IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AS WE HAVE 10-30%
CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF A SYRACUSE TO WAKEENEY LINE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND LIFT
SHOULD START TO EXIT THE REGION AND THE RAINFALL WILL END. WITH A
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY
MORNING AS LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE 30 DEGREES OR BELOW ALONG AND
WEST OF A LIBERAL TO NESS CITY LINE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 70-100%
OF LESS THAN 30 DEGREES ALSO SUGGEST THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A
FROST/FREEZE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND
POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP IMMEDIATELY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. TIME FRAME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AROUND 03Z
AT HYS AND 05-07Z FOR GCK, DDC, AND LBL. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BELOW 10 KFT BY 12Z. AT
THIS POINT ALL THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AROUND HYS
BETWEEN 03-09Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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