931
FXUS63 KDDC 241010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GOOD SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50" TO 2.0" IS LOOKING TO REMAIN ON
TRACK. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2" CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER.
- LOOKING AHEAD, A DRIER AND WARMER WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
OUR 00Z RAOB MEASURED A PWAT OF 1.70". THIS IS WELL OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.15". THE MAX FOR THIS DAY PER THE SPC RAOB
CLIMO WAS 1.56". THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH AN
INCREDIBLY WET ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE MID
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A
MID LEVEL TROF WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, RADAR IS SHOWING PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. AS A RESULT, THE SCATTERED SOAKING RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SEVERAL CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARIOUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FALLING THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE
A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF 0.5" TO 2.0". SOME OF CAMS ARE
FORECASTING 3+" THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL NBM/WPC GRID HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5" TO 2.0",
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, IT SEEMS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS LATER TODAY GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. I DID ASK NEIGHBORS (PUB AND GLD) IF
THEY WANTED TO JOIN AMA IN ISSUING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES. THE
DURATION OF THIS EVENT IS RATHER LONG AND IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY
RECENTLY, SO A CONSENSUS OF NO HEADLINES WAS REACHED ON THIS
SHIFT. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE CLOUDY, RAINY AND COOL DAY. WE
CERTAINLY NEEDED THIS TYPE OF WEATWIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY THIS
AFTERNOON A THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN A MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN LATE DAY AS THE NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE BELOW 3000FT AGL AS THESE STORMS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.HER DAY GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.
LOOKING AHEAD, ADDITION WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY. AREAL COVERAGE
SHOULD START TO BE LESSER FRIDAY THAN COMPARED TO THURSDAY, AS
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC TROF STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE GENERAL REGION. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, GEFS AND ENS ARE FORECASTING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A DRIER AND WARMER
FORECAST. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TREND TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES PEAKING SOLIDLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS
WILL ALSO TREND TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING
OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S THAN COMPARED TO THE NORMAL 50S.
FOR NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS
ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER TROF STARTING TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH PWATS
REACHING HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS SHOULD SET THE
STAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WE START TO HEAD
THROUGH THE BEGINNING TO MID PERIOD OF THE NEXT BUSINESS
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE RICH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN RETURN LATE DAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE TO BELOW 3000FT AGL AS THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page