166
FXUS63 KDDC 072240
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S TODAY INTO THE 100-105
RANGE ON SUNDAY.
- UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE BY MID-BUSINESS WEEK WITH
NBM HIGHLIGHTING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS CARRYING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A ~597-DM RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH TROUGHING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST KS,
SUPPORTING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY
BUILD TO NEAR ~599-DM. UNDER THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE, 850-MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 2-3 DEGREES C, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SUBTLE UPTICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. DNVA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AFTER LAST NIGHT'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE ABSENCE OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WILL OCCUR
IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST
REMAINING DOMINANT. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCE WILL BE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS SPREAD OUT OVER EASTERN WY/CO AND ADJACENT AREAS
LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE
GUSTING TO 30 MPH. CONTINUED STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SOLAR INSOLATION
WILL FOSTER ANOTHER SMALL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW 100S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND
WEAKEN, WHICH WILL ENGENDER A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KS AS WELL AS A RETURN OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NBM
HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE 100-105 RANGE, BUT WILL INCH DOWNWARD TO
THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK. NBM ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENINGS AS THE MOST LIKELY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS POPS RISE INTO THE CHANCE (25-54%) AND
LOW-END LIKELY (55-74%) CATEGORIES. THESE WILL BE WELCOME CHANGES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH HAVE BEEN MIRED IN VERY HOT AND DRY
TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AT 13-15
KTS BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...FINCH
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