273
FXUS63 KDDC 141030
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
530 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WILL BE SHAVED OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
90S NORTHWEST TO THE 104-107 RANGE SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR 110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PRATT,
STAFFORD AND BARBER COUNTIES.
- SCATTERED, MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POSING PRIMARILY A SEVERE WIND GUST RISK.
- SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SCATTERED, MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
MODELS THIS MORNING REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT BEING LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM LARNED TO
DODGE CITY TO MEADE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 105 WILL OCCUR IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE NBM HAS UNDERESTIMATED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THIS
WEEK AND GIVEN THIS WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. GIVEN THIS
AND CONSIDERING THE WARMER (75TH PERCENTILE) TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TODAY WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS AS IS
(60-65) IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE NEAR 110. DUE TO THIS ONGOING
EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS...AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED
FOR BARBER, PRATT, AND STAFFORD COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS FROM PAWNEE COUNTY TO
CLARK COUNTY WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
103 AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR
105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF A MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE SPREAD OUT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KS, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES, AND THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MID-60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN DIXIE ALLEY, RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WILL HELP SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S NORTHWEST TO 104-
107 SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED, MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL HREF MEMBERS SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RETREATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY BY 21-23Z. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY EVENING, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CAMS DEPICT THE MOST PRONOUNCED
CLUSTERING.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FAST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL ENGENDER A NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AS FRIDAY, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO 103-106
SOUTHEAST ARE FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED, LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING PRIMARY A SEVERE WIND GUST
RISK.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
MIDDAY MONDAY, AND MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT BUSINESS
WEEK. MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL REINFORCE THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS, PROVIDING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM THE INTENSE HEAT WAVE AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE RETROGRADING RIDGE SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AT 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 02Z SATURDAY. AS THESE
STORMS DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THEY MAY IMPACT THE
GARDEN CITY AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAYS AREA WILL BE FROM 04Z TO 09Z SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CEILINGS IN THE 5000 TO
10000FT AGL AFTER 21Z TODAY AS AFTERNOON CLOUDS/CONVECTION
DEVELOPS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ065-079-080-088-089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
UPDATE...BURGERT
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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