315
FXUS63 KDDC 100345
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING FAVORING OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES, ONCE AGAIN POSING A
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT.
- A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE THURSDAY EVENING SHOW AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS.
THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AS STRONG AS 89 MPH IN NORTHWEST KS, AND 68 MPH IN KEARNY
COUNTY. GIVEN 1300-1400 J/KG OF DCAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE, PLENTY OF
MUCAPE, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. CONVECTION IS
PROGGED BY LATEST HREF MEMBERS TO EXIT OUR AREA BY 08-09Z, AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS, A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE 500-MB HEIGHT RISES WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S AROUND I-70 TO THE MID 90S ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. LATER FRIDAY EVENING, HREF MEMBERS ONCE AGAIN SHOW
CONVECTION APPROACHING WESTERN KS BY 00Z, AHEAD OF A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
INSUFFICIENTLY MODIFIED OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S MCS WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO OUR FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE
AIRMASS WILL BE MORE PRISTINE. ANY ACTIVITY IN THIS VICINITY WILL
POSE A PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. UNDER INCREASING SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE, AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 90S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 90S SOUTH. BEYOND
SATURDAY, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL ENSEMBLES, WITH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY AND REMAINING FIXED IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE
SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NBM POPS ARE QUIET (<15%) THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR
DDC OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER SW KS TONIGHT, WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE 03-09Z FRI TIME FRAME. INCLUDED
CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS AT GCK-DDC-HYS FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS
TONIGHT, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
50 KTS. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS TONIGHT'S COMPLEX NORTH OF LBL,
AS SUCH KEPT THE LBL TAF DRY THIS UPDATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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