015
FXUS63 KDDC 282210
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-30%) MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- HIGHS REACHING NEAR THE CENTURY MARK MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRENGTHENING
LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SHARPENING
DRYLINE REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO LINE.
PREVAILING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SREF INDICATES BROADER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DOMINATING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (20-30% CHANCE)
LATE MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH CYCLES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, SENDING
WEAK H5 VORT MAXIMA THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. IN
RESPONSE, DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, SUPPORTING A SHARPENING DRYLINE ADVANCING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. POOLING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 TO 4000 J/KG.
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS H5 VORT MAXIMA
TRANSITION THROUGH THE REGION, INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER,
MODEST CAPPING AND A LACK OF A ROBUST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE ISOLATED. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE HREF POINTING TO A ONLY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE GENERALLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH THE LATEST NBM SHOWING A 20% PROBABILITY
OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH IN GENERAL VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT AS PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES
REINFORCE THE WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY
DOWN INTO THE 70S(F) WITH NEAR 80F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 100F MONDAY WITH THE DRYLINE PROJECTED
TO OSCILLATE BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS MAY
BACK OFF A LITTLE TUESDAY WITH THE SREF INDICATING THE DRYLINE
RETREATING WESTWARD, ALLOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY, SUSTAINED IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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