117
FXUS63 KDDC 201745
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) LATE
TODAY INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN PERSISTING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE LATE TODAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SREF POINTS TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND FARTHER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE SURFACE, MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AT BEST
WILL PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP INTO 50S(F) ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, INTRODUCING SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING 500 J/KG OR SO BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
ORGANIZING LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP/EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
FAVORABLE, STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS H5 VORT MAXIMA TRANSITION THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS, INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM OR TWO INITIALLY WILL BE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
SUGGESTED BY SOME CAMS AND THE HREF INDICATING A 20-30%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN INCH BY LATE
EVENING WITH THAT PROBABILITY THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. WHAT LITTLE PRECIP CHANCES EXIST DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY
AS A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.
AN ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES HELP DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA,
PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
NEAR 17-18C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH THE HREF SHOWING A
40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70F IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO BETTER THAN A 90% PROBABILITY OF
TOPPING 70F ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
70S(F). LOOK FOR SIMILAR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS KDDC AND KHYS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL STAY MAINLY AOA050 AND WILL CLEAR OFF AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
06Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page