119
FXUS63 KDDC 211915
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019
..UPDATE TO LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. STEEPENING LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F) AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CAPPING
ERODES. MEANWHILE, DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
WITH AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONG +100KT
JET CORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
VIRTUALLY STRADDLING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMBINED WITH
SBCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 2500 J/KG AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, THIS WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT BEHIND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE 60S(F)
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER AIR WILL SURGE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE
NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS
SETTLED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SETTING UP
AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA INCREASING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE PANHANDLES OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH POTENTIAL STORMS THEN POSSIBLY SPREADING
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, AN EXPECTED WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY FACTORS INTO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE.
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES AND RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING
WILL RESULT IN WARM UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 80S(F).
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KHYS AND KDDC AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
KGCK GENERALLY AFTER 22Z. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS NEAR KHYS AND KDDC TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 58 78 54 85 / 50 30 0 0
GCK 55 78 52 86 / 40 10 0 10
EHA 55 78 53 86 / 20 0 0 10
LBL 58 78 53 86 / 20 10 0 10
HYS 57 77 53 83 / 80 40 0 0
P28 65 80 57 83 / 50 50 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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