168
FXUS63 KDDC 250512
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SEVERE AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING STILL
LOOKS LIKELY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF THIS DISCUSSION IS
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM ELKHART TO SCOTT CITY TO HILL CITY...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO WITH SUBSEQUENT 700 MB SHORTWAVES
ENTERING INTO BOTH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE WILL BE THE TWO AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON. CAM MODELS HAVE STAYED IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KANSAS
SHOULD START GOING UP AROUND 4-5 PM INITIALLY AS SUPERCELLS FOR A
FEW HOURS AND THEN EVOLVING INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCHES OR
GREATER) AND A ISOLATED TORNADO OR LANDSPOUT THREAT ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE FRONT AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURN INTO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT AS THE STORMS TRAIN ALONG THE SAME AREAS. MODEL FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. THE
SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO (AROUND
PUEBLO TO TRINIDAD) AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO KANSAS SOMETIME AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 7
PM. GIVEN THE FACT THEY SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND BE IN LINE FORM AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD HAVE MAINLY A WIND
THREAT.
FOR MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOESN'T MOVE ALL THE MUCH
EASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO...BUT WHAT MOVEMENT IT DOES MAKE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO COME ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
6-10 (C) RANGE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTH WINDS, CLOUD COVER, UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR,
AND RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH FROM COLORADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO TEXAS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND TURN INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN KANSAS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTH WINDS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW GIVEN THE PRESENT TRACK SHOULD STAY
OFF TO THE SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA AND TO THE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. TOWARDS FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
IN CLIPPING OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THE BRUNT OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD
GO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE
WARMER AIR START TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020
GUSTY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO THESE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY. CEILINGS IN THE 500 TO 1500FT AGL
LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CEILINGS THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
06Z MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
WITH THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IN
COLORADO, AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 CONTINUES TO
EXIST. STORMS SHOULD LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 4 PM AND EVOLVE
INTO A LINE AFTER 7 PM. SOME OF THE RAIN RATES IN THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AND THE STORMS TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE HIGHEST PW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RATES CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SO AREAS BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND WICHITA WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 55 61 48 73 / 70 60 20 10
GCK 52 59 45 73 / 80 60 20 10
EHA 49 58 47 76 / 70 50 10 10
LBL 53 60 47 73 / 70 50 10 10
HYS 55 61 48 73 / 90 70 20 20
P28 62 69 53 73 / 70 70 30 20
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
079>081-089-090.
SHORT TERM...TATRO
LONG TERM...TATRO
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...TATRO
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