692
FXUS63 KDDC 141744
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
- RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH 100 DEGREE HIGHS EXPECTED
- SPOTTY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH LOWER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH IS ALLOWING STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO. THE ONE FOR LATE TONIGHT HAS AN AREA OF RAIN
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS LINE LOSING UPPER
LEVEL LIFT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO KANSAS SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY THE STATE LINE. A SECOND WAVE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LIFT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON HOWEVER WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING RAIN I KEPT POPS AT AROUND
10-20%.
MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
NEAR THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING TO AROUND 18 (C).
HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 80S. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ANOTHER 500-700 MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS. CAMS AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS THINK THAT THIS LIFT ALONG WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN CONUS WE SHOULD
SEE A POCKET OF HOT AIR AIDED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO AROUND 29-32 (C) AND WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO AID COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 100S WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100 DEGREE
WEATHER IN THE 70-80% RANGE FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. FORECAST
HIGHS OF 103 IN DODGE AND GARDEN CITY WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD
HIGH OF 104 AND A FORECAST HIGH OF 106 IN MEDICINE LODGE WILL MAKE A
RUN AT THE RECORD HIGH OF 107. THE AIR SHOULD BE DRIER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN THE
TEMPERATURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BARBER COUNTY WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HEAT EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AS COOLER AIR RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE SHOULD SEE WIND SPEEDS IN
GENERAL AROUND 12 KTS OR LESS. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY MORNING AND THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND HYS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ARE BELOW 30 PERCENT SO LEFT THE PROB30
WORDING OUT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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