601
FXUS63 KDDC 201008
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
- HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH COOLER BUT
HUMID WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
- THERE ARE VARYING CHANCES FOR T-STORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
GIVEN THE INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS, T-STORMS WILL
FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE MOST
ORGANIZED T-STORMS WILL BE FROM I-70 NORTHWARD, WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, WITH A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE FROM NESS
CITY NORTH TO HAYS, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY. STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH WILL BE ISOLATED BUT STILL SEVERE. DEWPOINTS OVER THE
PANHANDLES ARE MODEST BY LATE JUNE STANDARDS (LOWER TO MID 60S).
INSPECTION OF 00Z RAOBS SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER BETWEEN 10 AND 15C AT KOKC AND KAMA AND AROUND
16-18C AT KFWD. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAD SUPPRESSED
THE RICHER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE UPPER 70S. SO THE RETURN FLOW WILL NOT BE AS MOIST
AS PREVIOUS THINKING. AS A RESULT, DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE MIXING RATIOS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON,
YIELDING RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES AROUND 6-7000 FEET. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK UNTIL THE NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY 01-02Z. MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM COLORADO. ONCE
THE STORMS BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WHILE PROPAGATING EASTWARD.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER IS FAVORED ALONG I-70
AND NORTHWARD.
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH
COOLING OCCURS BY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT STORMS,
WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IN
PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND STORMS MAY FORM TO THE WEST
AGAIN AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER IN THE EVENING. THESE
STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE; BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
PARTICULARS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WARM SECTOR WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, POST FRONTAL, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS ONCE AGAIN,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL 700MB TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER BY THIS TIME GIVEN HOW FAR
NORTH OF THE FRONT WE WILL BE. BUT IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH
INSTABILITY TO GET SEVERE STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AND IF THE
LOW LEVELS RECOVER MORE THAN EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS,
THEN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE HIGHER.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS CONFIGURATION IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN AN ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BY LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE POSITIONING OF
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND FRONTS. THUS, STORM
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE GRAND ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW MODERATE
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-80%) OF 1" OR MORE OF RAIN, WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGHEST IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER, RAIN EVENTS WILL AFFECT DIFFERENT AREAS FROM
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LINGERING MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY OF KHYS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR GENERALLY AFTER 16-18Z AS PREVAILING LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LIFTS/SCATTERS OUT BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN
SPREAD EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00-02Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO
20KT THROUGH MID-MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 15 TO 25KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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