873
FXUS63 KDDC 082209
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
RECENT RAINFALL.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY INFLUENCE THE REGION LEADING TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AXIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE
NET RESULT IS A DRY FORECAST AND WARM (ABOVE NORMAL) HIGHS AND
MILD LOWS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY AS THE HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE. EVENTUALLY, BY THE
WEEKEND, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEEPENING OF THE LEE TROUGH WITH
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH
THE WINDS AND WARMTH, SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND UNRESPONSIVE FUELS. FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIX OF 50S TO
60S. SIMILAR HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO 60S,
WITH MORE 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT FROM WHAT WOULD BE SIMON
INFLUENCE OUR AREA?! RIGHT NOW, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS. THE LATEST
NBM HAS CHANCE POPS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
TRACK FROM SIMON DOES HAVE LANDFALL FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE
SAW FROM POLO. SO, IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH TAKING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT. AGAIN, SINCE
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES, IT IS HARD TO GET
EXCITED OR HOPEFUL AT THIS POINT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL
NEED TO LOOK FOR ENSEMBLE TRENDS IN THE EXACT STORM TRACK BEFORE
WE BEGIN TO DISCUSS PARTICULAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE INCREASING 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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