748  
FXUS63 KDDC 201050  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
450 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR TODAY WILL BRING SOME  
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO  
THE SURFACE THE COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THE DAY AS MILDER AIR COMES IN FROM EASTERN COLORADO.  
HIGHS SHOULD STAY COLDEST IN OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES  
WITH MID 40S. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES  
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC  
ZONE DEVELOP AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHT  
SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WITH LOW 20S. DEPENDING ON HOW THE WARM  
FRONT MOVES IN WE SHOULD SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA  
BORDER IN THE UPPER 20S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
MONDAY WILL PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING CHALLENGES AS A WARM  
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. GFS AND EURO BOTH THINK THE  
SURFACE LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ALLOW THE MILDER AIR  
TO REACH FROM SYRACUSE TO MEDICINE LODGE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AN UPPER LOW AND STRONG COLD  
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NAM BRINGS IN  
THE COLDEST AIR QUICKEST WHILE THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWER. TENDED  
TO AGREE WITH THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR LIKE THE NAM.  
BEST CHANCE FOR THE PRECIP (WHICH WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF  
LIGHT SNOW) WILL BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH BETTER CHANCES  
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL GUST INTO THE 40-50 MPH  
RANGE LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR  
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.  
 
GENERAL PATTERN AFTER TUESDAY CONTINUES US IN A NORTHWEST FLOW SET  
UP WITH PERIODIC COLD FRONTS AND SMALL CHANCES OF MOISTURE ALONG  
THE WAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND  
AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.  
 
MILDER AIR RETURNS FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD  
CEILINGS WILL START TO FALL FOR ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF  
FOG POSSIBLE AROUND HYS THAT COULD LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM  
06Z-10Z.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 53 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 10  
GCK 49 25 48 27 / 0 0 0 20  
EHA 59 26 68 28 / 0 0 0 10  
LBL 57 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 10  
HYS 44 22 39 28 / 0 0 0 20  
P28 50 26 52 38 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TATRO  
LONG TERM...TATRO  
AVIATION...TATRO  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page