897
FXUS63 KDDC 280233
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS, WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
- A RAPID HEATING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 TO BE COMMON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY.
- HOT, ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MIDDAY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY LATE-SUMMER
STANDARDS IS IN PLACE ATOP THE CONUS, WITH A ~597DM RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH DIXIE ALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SUPPORTING LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE STRONG DNVA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER RIDGE, MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BY 1-2 DEGREES AT 850-MB THANKS TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE RELATIVELY COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. TONIGHT,
HREF MEMBERS ARE NEARLY SPLIT 50/50 REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS THE NSSL WRF AND WRF-ARW SUGGEST AN MCS WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA WHILE THE HRRR AND 3KMNAM HAVE LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTION. IF THE FORMER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE VERIFIES,
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE WILL EXIST FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST RISK, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SPC'S
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) THEY HAVE LAID OUT CENTERED AROUND
US-283.
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL INCH NORTHEASTWARD BUT SLIGHTLY DAMPEN, YIELDING A
STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EAST-
CENTRAL CO CAUSING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING AT
850-MB SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A NOTICEABLE WARMER AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE MUTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE, HOWEVER A
STRAY SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MEANDERING OUT OF EASTERN
CO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHUFFLE
EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL YIELD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS HOVER IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
AS WELL AS LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NBM DOES PAINT SOME
LOW-END CHANCE POPS (25- 54%) SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS
FAVORING OUR NORTHWEST/NORTH ZONES, HOWEVER DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE ECMWF EPS AND GEFS IMPLIES THESE ARE OVERDONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0230Z FRI DEPICTED AN IMPRESSIVE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER SW NEBRASKA, MOVING DUE
SOUTH TOWARD SW KS. SYSTEM IS QUITE ORGANIZED AND EXPECT IT TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN AIRPORTS (GCK/HYS) TO SOME EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RRFS/ARW SOLUTIONS SHOW STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
WINDS AT LEAST NEAR HYS/GCK 06-09Z FRI, AND STARTED BY INCLUDING
A CB/VCTS MENTION AT THOSE AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT. TAF AMENDMENTS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY, PENDING HOW WELL THE MCS MAINTAINS
ORGANIZATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRIMARY RISK FROM STORMS THROUGH
SUNRISE WILL BE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH DAYLIGHT FRIDAY.
AFTER 15Z FRI, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRPORTS, GUSTING 25-30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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