894
FXUS63 KDDC 141654
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; SEVERE WEATHER NOT
EXPECTED
- FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS CONTINUING TO DEPART THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT HAS
SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE
IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS IN THE FORM OF A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING, BRINGING ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED,
INCREASING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GIVEN
OUR AREAS POSITION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
THE SURFACE WILL BE STABLE WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, HAVE CONTINUED THE
IDEA OF GREATLY LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE NBM
OUTPUT. IT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SHALLOW COLD, POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DOES EXIST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 30S, WITH
BELOW FREEZING WEST OF ROUTE 283. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
32 OR LESS ARE 50-70%. UNLESS THINGS CHANGE DRASTICALLY BEFORE
THEN, WOULD GUESS FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS AND LOW CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FORM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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