418
FXUS63 KDDC 031010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS 104-106F ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS -- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.
- PATTERN CHANGE WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH 10 TO 15 DEGREE SPREAD
AMONG MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF 1/4" OR MORE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE 48
HOUR PERIOD ROUGHLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THIS WORKWEEK WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY DECENT BREAK FROM THE HEAT, BUT
NOT BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY -- ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 104 TO 106F RANGE FROM LIBERAL TO ELKHART NORTH
TO AROUND SYRACUSE. IT WILL BE A DRY HEAT, THOUGH, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE.
DESPITE THIS, WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NWS AMARILLO IN THE ISSUANCE
OF A HEAT ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AND HEAT
STRESS POTENTIAL TO AGRICULTURE INTERESTS. A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTH
WIND 15 TO 25 MPH SHOULD ALLEVIATE SOME OF THIS HEAT STRESS, BUT
DIRECT INSOLATION WILL OCCUR ALL DAY WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
RESULTING IN ESSENTIALLY NO CLOUDS.
A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CONUS STARTING TUESDAY, AND THIS WILL BRING A POLAR FRONT
SOUTH INTO KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT AND BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT, AT WHICH POINT THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL DISSOLVE AS THE
SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK IN. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS 40 TO
60% CHANCE OF 1/4" OR MORE QPF OVER A 48-HR PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THIS
IS SEEN IN THE NBM WITH 10-90TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 10TH PERCENTILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE MID 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.
THE PATTERN WILL REVERT BACK TO FAVORING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 100 TO 105F HIGHS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY AUGUST 9TH AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 20
TO 30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS LEE SIDE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ061-074-075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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