996
FXUS63 KDDC 241757
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IN CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AND AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
- A COOLING TREND RETURNS SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 5890 DM HIGH OVER THE GULF WITH A
LARGE TROUGH OFF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COMBINATION HAS LED TO
A LARGE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH THE
POLAR JET WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB
LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO HAS LED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KANSAS HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.
FOR TODAY THE AREA OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD MAINLY
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 183 CORRIDOR AND THIS FOG SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE GIVING WAY TO BETTER MIXING AS
WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO
BRING IN DRIER AIR TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 13-15% AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER EXISTS MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF GARDEN CITY. WITH
THIS DRIER AIR THESE AREAS HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HIGHS
REACHING OVER 80 DEGREES (~70%). AREAS THAT STAY OUT OF THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 SHOULD REACH
INTO THE MID 70S. AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
FOR CHRISTMAS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HINTING AT FOG
REDEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ADVECTING IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA LOOKS
TO BE FROM AROUND HAYS TO ST. JOHN. AS A RESULT THESE AREAS WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
MORE SUNSHINE WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS AND THIS WILL RAISE
HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GARDEN AND DODGE CITY.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER ALONG THE US-
CANADIAN BORDER THIS WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT SHOULD ROLL
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
(CLOSER TO OUR SEASONABLE AVERAGES). HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL HUGE STORM SYSTEMS OR AREAS OF MOISTURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...FINCH
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