806  
FXUS63 KDDC 071333  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
833 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
..UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS  
FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN  
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT MOVES  
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. FEEL THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE  
BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER FOR A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. AS SUCH, HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FA  
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIMINISHED SHOT AT ADDITIONAL STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT  
WOULD BE SOME GUSTY, POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WINDS. AGAIN,  
IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN PRETTY WORKED OVER IN  
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION FROM MUCH EARLIER. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE  
SEASONABLY HOT WITH VALUE MAINLY IN THE 90S. AROUND 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, HIGHER  
DEWPOINTS IN THIS AREA IN COMBINATION OF THE HOTTER HIGHS MAY RESULT  
IN ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED  
A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR STAFFORD, PRATT, AND BARBER COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THIS HEAT THREAT. IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THIS AREA, BE SURE TO TAKE  
FREQUENT BREAKS AND KEEP HYDRATED. OTHER THAN THE ALREADY MENTIONED  
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS, THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY QUIET. MINIMUMS  
WILL REMAIN NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MIX OF 60S AND 70S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. HIGHS IN THE 90S. WILL  
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE RATON MESA AND MAY IMPACT EXTREME  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF THE FA  
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY. ON SATURDAY, A 500-HPA RIDGE STARTS  
TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD  
TO A DRY FORECAST AND HOTTER HIGHS. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO PLANT ITSELF  
OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY. AGAIN, THE NET RESULT IS EVEN HOTTER  
HIGHS AND A DRY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S LOOKS VERY REASONABLE  
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE MAY DAMPEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY  
AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OVERALL  
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE SLIGHT THOUGH, WITH STILL SEASONABLY HOT HIGHS  
AND A DRY FORECAST. EVENTUALLY, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY START  
TO WORK SOUTHWARD SOME OF THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THERE  
MIGHT BE SOME STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE  
THOUGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. THE NBM POPS ARE FINE  
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE  
EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE TAFS THROUGH THE PD. SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THIS MORNING. THERE  
MIGHT BE ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON  
IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS  
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 94 70 94 68 / 20 20 10 10  
GCK 92 68 94 66 / 20 20 10 20  
EHA 90 68 95 67 / 20 20 10 30  
LBL 96 70 96 68 / 20 20 10 20  
HYS 92 69 91 68 / 20 20 10 10  
P28 100 73 96 71 / 20 20 10 10  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KSZ066-081-090.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN  
LONG TERM...SUGDEN  
AVIATION...SUGDEN  
 
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