184
FXUS63 KDDC 210520
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DESPITE A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT, INTENSE HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CLARK, COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH THIS WEEK. ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- HEAT IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER 100 EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE SIMPLE SUMMER REGIME CONTINUES, WITH THE STRONG MIDLEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR DENVER AT MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY OVER SW KS TUESDAY, WITH VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE UNDER 597 DM HEIGHTS AND ANOTHER VERY HOT AFTERNOON.
NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ADDED ABOUT
2-3 DEGREES TO THE NBM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR I-70 AT SUNRISE,
AND SLOWLY BACKDOOR ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW KS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING
25-30 MPH. DESPITE THIS NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AND THE COMPLETE
ABSENCE OF DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL EASILY
SURPASS 100 TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 50. THE
MOST DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE RED HILLS EASTWARD,
INCLUDING CLARK, COMANCHE AND BARBER COUNTIES, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR HEAT INDICES OF
105-110. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO AMA, ADDED MEADE COUNTY TO
THE HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE HEAT INDICES OVER 105
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
SEVERAL RELIABLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST ISOLATED/MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT PEAK HEATING
(4-7 PM) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANY UPDRAFTS CAN SURVIVE THE
STRONGLY SUBSIDENT RIDGE ENVIRONMENT, SOME BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH OUTFLOW WINDS/DRY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE. THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION ARE 15% OR LESS, AND ADDED MINIMAL POPS IN THE GRIDS.
MODELS MAINTAIN CONTINUITY SLIDING THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND A NET REDUCTION
OF ABOUT 3C AT 850 MB WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO RELAX BACK TO THE
90S WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING LESS THAN 100. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY. DAYLIGHT
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SKIRT THE NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NBM POPS ARE CORRECTLY LIMITED, WITH MOST ACTIVITY NORTH OF
SW KS FURTHER FROM THE RIDGE'S SUBSIDENCE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
WEST TEXAS. MODELS PROJECT A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ENTERING KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME
SIGNAL FOR MCS GENERATION AT LEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
NBM HAS INCREASED POP GRIDS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FAVORING
THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY EVENING, AND THIS IS THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN, AT LEAST NORTH OF DODGE CITY.
THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO AMPLIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEIGHTS NEARING 600 DM NEAR
AND WEST OF SW KS. THE AFTERNOON HEAT WILL REBOUND ACCORDINGLY,
ABOVE 100 ALL ZONES CERTAINLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/MEX
GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HOT FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH NBM MAX
TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 SUNDAY MORE REASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC MAINTAINED AT ALL AIRPORTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR
THROUGH SW KS DAYLIGHT TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 23-27 KTS. WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY AND DIMINISH BY
00Z WED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ081-087>090.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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