605
FXUS63 KDDC 131145
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/4 TO 1/2" ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
(>75% CHANCE).
- OUTSIDE OF RAIN SHOWER AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP
- HIGH WIND AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE
ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS,
INCLUDING OUR SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THE INCOMING RAINFALL EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK AND COMING IN TO
BETTER FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO FINER DETAILS IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. LATE THIS EVENING, THE STORM OF INTEREST WAS
STILL WELL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT IT WILL BE MAKING
ITS MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND ACCELERATING TOWARD
SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE INITIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC
POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO
ON FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO TAP IN TO THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL ALSO MOISTEN UP TO
SATURATION FRIDAY EVENING, AND INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE AS THE OVERALL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE RED HILLS REGION, SOUTHEAST OF DODGE IN PARTICULAR.
LATEST SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME CAPE
ADVANCING INTO BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDER,
AND THE NBM DID INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER ELEMENT TO
AROUND 30% IN BARBER COUNTY, LEADING TO INCLUSION OF THUNDER IN THE
WX GRIDS.
THROUGH THE NIGHT, DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
40S AS FAR WEST AS THE COLORADO LINE AND UP TO I-70. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE RAP
AND HRRR MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG SIGNAL GIVEN
THEIR RESPECTIVE 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY PROG. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY
DECENT SIGNAL FROM THE 00Z RUN OF THE HREF OF FOG. USING THE HREF, A
4-HOUR WINDOW, 15-MILE RADIUS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY OF 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY IS 40-60% ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH HIGHEST 60-80% PROBS CONFINED TO AREAS DODGE CITY TO
MEADE AND POINTS EAST TOWARD PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE. GIVEN THIS
SIGNAL, WE HAVE ADDED AREAS FOG INTO THE WX GRIDS ALONG WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF PRECIPITATION, VISIBILITY
DUE TO FOG/MIST WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN NATURE FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
EVENTUALLY, A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE POSITIONING OF THIS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN AREA WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE MODEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM BOTH THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THE LATER DEFORMATION AXIS RAINFALL. SHOULD
LOCATIONS SEE BOTH, AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE 01Z OF THE NBM SHOWS AN AXIS OF 30-40% PROB OF 1"
EXCEEDANCE FROM JETMORE TO NESS CITY TO HAYS AND LA CROSSE. FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, THE 1/4" TO 1/2" FORECAST IS STILL
A PRETTY GOOD ONE AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT BE WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CORE OF BOTH ROUNDS OF RAIN.
SINCE MUCH OF THE FORECAST ATTENTION IS ON THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT,
NOT MUCH TIME WAS SPENT ON THE MEDIUM RANGE INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF CONCERN ON TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO A
HIGH WIND EVENT AND EVEN MORE SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. ALL THREE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE LOCKED IN FAIRLY WELL WITH AN
EXTENDED 250MB JET CORE OF 160+ KNOTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
GIVEN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE JET CORE, VIGOROUS LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WOULD OCCUR AND VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THIS RAIN EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WE WILL BE REALLY
FOCUSED ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH IFR
AND LIFR CIGS BY 09-12Z AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 09Z. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH
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