476
FXUS63 KDDC 072311
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY LATE EVENING INTO LATE NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- LARGE AREA OF 1/2" OR MORE TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PERIOD LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS (50 TO 60% CHANCE).
- PATTERN CHANCE TO MUCH DRIER PERIOD BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, SEVERITY, AND TIMING WILL ALL BE AMONG THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL WE SEE A
PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE-TILTED RIDGE AXIS WHICH WAS
CENTERED ACROSS COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
DOWN AS SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ENTERS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASED MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL LEESIDE TROUGH, THUS
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF WHEREVER A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. ALL OF THESE THINGS COMBINED WILL SUPPORT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) ACTIVITY FROM EASTERN COLORADO
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS MORNING'S 12Z RUN OF THE HREF MODEL APPEARS TO BE LINING UP
WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS (100-MEMBER GRAND
ENSEMBLE) AND ITS MEAN QPF FIELD, LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S MCS TRACKING MORE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
KANSAS. AS SUCH, HIGHER POPS IN THE NBM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE DDC CWA. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING'S MCS WILL PUSH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH WOULD LIKELY STALL OUT,
WEAKEN, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME REPLACED BY BROAD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BACK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO -- SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BETTER MCS SCENARIO FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS CONTINUE TO GO UP ON THE
NBM GIVEN INCREASING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG MORE OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A FORMIDABLE MCS SHOULD TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
INCREASING SIGNALS OF 1/2" OR MORE 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HIGHEST
35-45% GENERALLY NORTH OF A SYRACUSE TO DODGE CITY TO LA CROSSE LINE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR A MCS TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
NBM DOES MAINTAIN SOME 20-30% PROBABILITIES OF 1/2" MORE RAINFALL IN
THE 24-HR PERIOD 7AM FRIDAY TO 7AM SATURDAY (CDT), BUT MUCH OF THIS
WILL DEPEND ON AIR MASS RECOVERY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT'S EVENT. AFTER
FRIDAY NIGHT, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH SIGNALS OF THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH BEING NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WOULD
FAVOR A HEAT WAVE FOCUSED MORE ON AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION, THUS PROBABILITIES OF 100+ FOR HIGHS HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN DECREASING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S APPEAR
MORE LIKELY NOW VS. UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
DYING STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO LATE THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE A MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BREEZY
SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...TATRO
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