565
FXUS63 KDDC 171617
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR T-STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND THE
STORMS SATURDAY EVENING MAY BE THE MOST NUMEROUS AND SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WESTERN KANSAS WILL STAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLY JET STREAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INDIVIDUAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TO WARM ADVECTION,
DESTABILIZATION AND CLUSTERS OF T-STORMS FOLLOWED BY WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER.
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER
TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL
PREVENT AREAS NORTH OF DODGE CITY FROM REACHING 100 DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR, T-STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HAVING BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, LEE TROUGHING WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTREMITY OF THE WESTERLIES. T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE CAPPING
ERODES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW ORGANIZED
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE PLAINS SATURDAY, WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET TO
THE NORTH. A FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS, PROBABLY SEVERE,
WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG I-70. T-STORM COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT COLD FRONT GETS BY AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER; AND GIVEN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, THESE WOULD BE
SEVERE.
A BRIEF BREAK IN T-STORM CHANCES IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES STILL CLOSE BY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, A RAPID MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR T-STORMS STARTING TUESDAY.
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR, FOLLOWED BY WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION AND T-STORM CHANCES. AND ANY PERIODS OF
INTENSE HEAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
TO SUMMARIZE, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS PREDICTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR T-STORMS (30-70% RANGE) ARE
FOR LATE SATURDAY WHEN AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER SEEMS MOST
LIKELY. LOWER CHANCES OF STORMS IN THE 20-40% RANGE ARE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL START THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
EASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY TO 15-20 KTS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...BENNETT
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