403
FXUS63 KDDC 172200
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
..UPDATED AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANCHORED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE WILL
BE SLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS AS A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI.
HOWEVER, IT WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO INTRODUCE ANY INSTABILITY DURING
THE PERIOD. STILL, A STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SOMETIME GENERALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY RISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 40S(F) FOR LOWS TONIGHT. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY EVEN AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLIES RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND POTENTIAL AREAS OF
PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 50S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD QUICKLY KICKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AS
A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE VERY EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS(C) BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPING HELPING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS PUSHING THE LOWER
70S(F) TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, IN TURN DROPPING
H85 TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TOWARD 10C. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S(F) SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AS OF 22Z WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT SE WIND PREVAILING. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY, EXPECTED TO
REACH MVFR BY 21Z THU AT GCK/LBL, AND AT LEAST APPROACH MVFR AT
DDC. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT HYS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN INTO LBL/GCK/DDC THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS
TO AVIATION WILL BE LIMITED. KEPT THE HYS TAF DRY, WITH LIGHT RAIN
MOST LIKELY AT HYS 00-06Z FRI. AFTER 15Z THU, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
MODESTLY AT ALL AIRPORTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 44 55 45 70 / 10 40 30 0
GCK 43 54 42 70 / 20 30 20 0
EHA 45 53 42 69 / 30 30 20 0
LBL 45 53 44 70 / 20 40 30 0
HYS 40 58 44 69 / 0 20 10 0
P28 45 58 48 68 / 10 40 50 20
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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