229
FXUS63 KDDC 230445
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS
WEEKEND, BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY.
- MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE RAINFALL,
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
THURSDAY EVENING REVEAL A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
IN PLACE ATOP THE CONUS, WITH A FORMIDABLE TROUGH OVER THE FAR
WESTERN CONUS AND A MODEST RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHWEST KS RESIDES BETWEEN BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND
INCIPIENT LEE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN MT AND ADJACENT AREAS. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS, SUPPORTING FRIDAY MORNING LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. DAYTIME FRIDAY, THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL
MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD, HOWEVER AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX
WILL EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO ~996-MB,
RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE 20-
30 MPH RANGE GUSTING TO 40 MPH. ON THE OTHER HAND, DECREASING 500-MB
HEIGHTS WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL AGAIN HOLD IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE, AND LOWS WILL REPEAT IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER
WAVE WILL ADVANCE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS DPVA BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT AS THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH PROVIDES THE IDEAL
SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER TO THE MID/UPPER
70S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER OUR AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, THEN EJECTS ONTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A HAYS-MEADE
LINE ON SUNDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY. ONCE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS MEAN TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FIELDS SUGGEST 1-2" OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE, AND 0.25-1" TO THE EAST. MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS STAYING IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 12-17 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THE 18-23 KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
BACK DOWN INTO THE 12-17 KT RANGE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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