104
FXUS63 KDDC 291656
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
A QUIET AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL KEEP THE JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 5-15 MPH AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD REACH TO AROUND 100.
TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH
THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND THEN WE SHOULD SEE A CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL COME ABOUT AS
THE FRONT COMES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE HIGHS REACH IN THE 102-103 RANGE FOR
AREAS AROUND MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER. A 700 MB SHORTWAVE
BEHIND THE FRONT COMES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD GIVE US A GOOD
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS AND NBM POPS IN THE
40-50% RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST BUT NOT
FAR ENOUGH THAT WE WON'T STILL HAVE SOME OF THE MILDER AIR IT WILL
BRING AS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND MOISTURE WE
COULD BE SEEING POP UP STORM CHANCES PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY NEXT
WEEK AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 99 71 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 98 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 96 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 97 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 101 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
P28 101 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TATRO
LONG TERM...TATRO
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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