221
FXUS63 KDDC 182202
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH LATE WEEK, MAINLY FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
EARLIER TODAY AND AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE
WILL ONLY BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP A SOME OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S. ON MONDAY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS.WHILE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS) THE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENING AS IT DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE
WEEK. DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THIS UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND APPROACHES THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA. WHILE THIS OCCURS THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS 850MB
WARMER AIR DEVELOPS AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES THE MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FROM 10-15C AT 7PM MONDAY TO NEAR 20C BY 7PM WEDNESDAY.
THESE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS FORECAST WARMUP EASILY
SUPPORTS HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 75 TO NEAR 80 DEGREE
RANGE LATE WEEK AND MAY EVEN END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMED
GIVE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE WEEK AND DEEPER MIXING
POTENTIAL BEING POSSIBLE.
AS FOR THE INCREASING WINDS LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ALREADY
INDICATED THAT DEEPER MIXING WILL OCCUR LATE WEEK AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH
CROSSING EASTERN COLORADO. ALL THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAS THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF THE 850MB WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND
30 KNOTS AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT LEAST 40 KNOTS. THE NBM
ALREADY IS FORECASTING THAT SOME AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283
(40-60% CHANCE) COULD EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A CHANCE (<20%) FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SUBTLE UPPER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSES SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN WESTERN UNITED STATES
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA AND IMPROVING MOISTURE OCCURS
AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPPER WAVE BASED ON PWATS INCREASING
TO GREATER THAN 80% ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SEVERAL DAYS OF
IMPROVING IVT (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND). FRIDAY NIGHT
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 283
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES APPROACHES WESTERN
KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH
THE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND THERE WILL
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SOUTH WIND OF
10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF
CALM WEATHER.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...KBJ
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