198
FXUS63 KDDC 200513
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) LATE
TODAY INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN PERSISTING EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE OR THERE LATE TODAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
THE SREF POINTS TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
FARTHER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE SURFACE, MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AT BEST WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO 50S(F) ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
INTRODUCING SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING 500
J/KG OR SO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE ORGANIZING LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS PROJECTED
TO DEVELOP/EXTEND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
FAVORABLE, STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS H5 VORT MAXIMA TRANSITION THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS, INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM OR TWO INITIALLY WILL BE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME CAMS AND THE HREF INDICATING A 20-30% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR
QPF EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN INCH BY LATE EVENING WITH THAT
PROBABILITY THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WHAT LITTLE
PRECIP CHANCES EXIST DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AN ONGOING WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES
HELP DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE 10C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 17-18C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WITH THE HREF SHOWING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 70F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO BETTER THAN A 90%
PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 70F ELSEWHERE, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 70S(F). LOOK FOR SIMILAR HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 15 TO 25KT GENERALLY AFTER 14-16Z AS LEE
SIDE TROUGHING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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