255
FXUS63 KDDC 281023
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
523 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS, WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
- A RAPID HEATING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 TO BE COMMON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. AN
ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD IS EVIDENT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- HOT, ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
LATE EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED AN IMPRESSIVE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) ENTERING NW KS. THIS MCS HAS
SHOWN NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING, PROBABLY A FUNCTION OF EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW ALOFT PER CIRRUS ON SATELLITE, BUT IS JUST NOW SHOWING
SOME OF THE INITIAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE APEX OF THE BOWING
SEGMENT IS MOVING DUE SOUTH AS OF 11 PM, AND WILL ENTER THE
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. FOR SHORT TERM POPS, FOLLOWED THE GENERAL TRACK OF
THE LATEST 00Z ARW SOLUTION, WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FAVORED
CAM SOLUTIONS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. INCREASED POPS GREATLY OVER
THE CURRENT NBM DRY SOLUTION. PRIMARY RISK FROM STORMS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH NORTH OF
K-96, WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING AFTER THAT AND WITH SOUTHERN
EXTENT. CURRENT THINKING IS MCS WILL DISSIPATE ROUGHLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ZONES, AROUND DDC, DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
ALL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING FRIDAY, WITH A NET WARMING
OF +3 TO +5C AT 850 MB, ALONG WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES, AND MUCH
IMPROVED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND STRONGER SOUTH WINDS. LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT SOUTH WINDS OF
20-30 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.
A DRY FORECAST IS EVIDENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL ZONES, AS
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER NET WARMING OF +3C AT 850 MB, AND MORE OF
A SWLY DOWNSLOPE CONTRIBUTION. AS WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS
SUMMER, NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL WITH
THESE EXCESSIVELY HOT DAYS. ADDED 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OF 100-105 COMMON BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
105 SATURDAY, WITH NO HEAT ADVISORY PLANNED. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 105 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A FEW
HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED. THE HOTTEST GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED, WITH 00Z MOS
GUIDANCE IN THE 103-105 RANGE FOR DDC, AND THIS WOULD THREATEN
RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, 3-5 MPH STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE, AND
THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE BLOW DRYER, DEHYDRATION EFFECT FOR
PEOPLE, PETS AND LIVESTOCK OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND.
MIDLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SUNDAY WILL ELONGATE INTO A
LONGER RIDGE AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAINED CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 100 EACH
DAY. AGAIN, NBM IS PROBABLY A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL IN THIS
ANOMALOUSLY HOT PATTERN FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE MINIMAL TO ABSENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SOME LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT PEAK
HEATING EACH DAY, FURTHEST FROM THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS, AND NEARER ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BEFORE 12Z AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z
TO SUSTAINED AT 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL STAY
BREEZY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO NEAR 30% FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ELEVATED
SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES OF 100-105 ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, WHICH WILL LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TO 20-25% BOTH AFTERNOONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND, GUSTING OVER 30-40 MPH AT TIMES,
RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD WHERE FUELS ARE
AVAILABLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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