918
FXUS63 KDDC 030617
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONAL
- HOT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY; ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A HOT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN ZONES AND ALONG THE
KS/CO BORDER AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR STORM CHANCES,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, EVEN MORE SO THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE LOCALLY
SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
GIVEN CAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP 0-3 AND 3-6 KM
LAPSE RATES OF 8-10 C/KM. A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL LARGER THAN 1"
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ROBUST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH
MUCAPE GREATER THAN 3,000 J/KG. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY INTO THE LATE EVENING.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR FOURTH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES, WITH SATURDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AREA. HEAT INDICES BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT WITH MORE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND THE HOLIDAY, WE STILL
URGE FOLKS TO TAKE HEAT RELATED PRECAUTIONS.
SATURDAY'S SEVERE RISK AND POTENTIAL STORM PLACEMENT WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON THUNDERSTORM PROGRESSION AND EVOLUTION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A REMNANT
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. MODELS DIFFER WHERE THIS
WILL EXACTLY SET UP, BUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SEEMS
PROBABLE. WITH INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHEAR MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL
RISK. INTO THE EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND RISK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS TO START THE PERIOD, BUT THAT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY IS EAST OF GCK, LBL, AND DDC. HYS HAS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, BUT COVERAGE IS MINIMAL. SOME LLWS MAY ALSO START THE
PERIOD WITH THE INCREASE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, SO MADE MENTION
IN THE TAF AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BREEZY 10-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THEREFORE NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS POINT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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