441  
FXUS63 KDDC 012200  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
500 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOME FOURTH OF  
JULY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND FIREWORKS FRIDAY EVENING.  
 
- SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD, IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL  
BE DICTATED BY A DOMINANT HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE AND A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THIS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST  
PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE  
RIDGE'S DIRECT INFLUENCE WILL BRING WARM, DRY, AND SUNNY  
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW  
90S, ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. A  
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG  
THE KS/OK BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.  
 
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS  
WEEKEND (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS THE RIDGE GETS  
PUSHED INITIALLY SOUTHWARD THEN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
BY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER  
THIS RIDGE ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL DRAW  
UNSTABLE, MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH WEAK  
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS  
KANSAS. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK IS UNLIKELY DUE TO  
WEAK WIND SHEAR, THE HIGH INSTABILITY COULD FUEL "PULSE" SEVERE  
STORMS, POSING LOCALIZED THREATS OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF  
55-70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES INCREASE  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT  
WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,  
WITH VFR AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL  
DISSIPATE AT SUNSET, BUT REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z WED. LIGHT SOUTH  
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 18Z WED, SOUTH WINDS WILL  
INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING 25-30 KTS.  
 
 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42  
AVIATION...TURNER  
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