839
FXUS63 KDDC 221719
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9PM CDT THIS EVENING WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283 TODAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY ISOLATED HAIL.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON THURSDAY.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS (EAST OF HIGHWAY 281) LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A 500MB TROUGH THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE/DEVELOPING
DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE, AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN DRAWING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, RESULTING
IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS CLIMBED
FROM THE 40S YESTERDAY INTO THE 50S EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY IS THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BRINGS AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
RISK BUT ALSO MAY PRODUCE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. MODELS TODAY INDICATE THE DRYLINE WILL
REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 1PM. AS THIS DRYLINE PASSES
THE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 15% OR LESS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HUGOTON
TO ULYSSES LINE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH HAVE A 50-70%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AFTER 3 PM BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLES.
IN ADDITION TO THESE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUST WINDS THERE WILL BE A
10-20% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS DRYLINE LATE DAY POSITION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR ANY
STORM THAT MAY DEVELOP. AS A RESULT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING COULD CAUSE ISOLATED WILDFIRES. BASED ON ALL THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING EVEN IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO NOT
REACH THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES.
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL NOT ONLY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AND POSSIBLY EVEN HAIL LATE DAY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF +40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2000 J/KG, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT. AGAIN THIS IS ALL CONDITIONAL ON STORMS DEVELOPING,
WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE <20%.
THE FOCUS SHIFTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM THE DRYLINE TO
A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DRYLINE CROSSING SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FASTER SOLUTION MAY NOT ONLY REDUCE THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK NEAR PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE LATE THURSDAY, BUT IT
WILL IMPACT FIRE WEATHER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AFTERNOON
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY, GIVEN LATE DAY HUMIDITY IN
THE TEENS AND A 60-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AFTER 2
PM (PER REFS), A RED FLAG WARNING APPEARS WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. STILL WORKING ON THE DETAILS AS
OF NOON BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE FROM SYRACUSE TO JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY AND GREENSBURG.
AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL A
MARGINAL RISK ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN,
THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR LOW ( LESS THAN 20%). IF A
FEW STORMS DO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
(MORE SEASONAL) WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, INSTEAD OF JUST CLOUDS AND RAIN, THERE NOW APPEARS TO
BE AN IMPROVING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH
EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER ON FRIDAY, THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A 250MB JET. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT IMPROVES. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THIS WILL IMPROVE SHEAR ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPROVING GIVEN SOME COOLER
ALOFT. SPC ALREADY HAS ISSUED A 12-29% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283, WITH A GREATER THAN 30% CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR STAFFORD, PRATT, AND MEDICINE LODGE WHICH AT THIS
TIME APPEARS REASONABLE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES SUNDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
END AS THIS UPPER WAVE PASSES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS UNTIL A DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS DRYLINE PASSES THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DECREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO JUST BEFORE THIS DRY LINE PASSES THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD WHERE AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD (BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000FT
AGL) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS BASED ON THE MOIST
SOUTH SOUTHWESTLERY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE. CURRENTLY
MODELS SUGGEST JUST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. ONCE THIS
DRYLINE PASSES THE SKIES WILL CLEAR. THE WESTERLY WINDS LATE
TONIGHT WILL NOT LAST LONG GIVEN THAT A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONTAL THE WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS EVENING.
THE DRYLINE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY
ENTERING WESTERN GRANT AND STEVENS AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES BY LATE DAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED FLAG
WARNING. IN THIS AREA, WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING THE RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THIS
DRYLINE. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION, SO
THE CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE ISOLATED FIRES. THESE HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, WHICH COULD CAUSE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY NEW
OR EXISTING FIRE.
CRITICAL FIRE RISK POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES, WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THERE IS A 60% TO 80% CHANCE
THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE TEENS. AS A RESULT, I AM LEANING TOWARDS
ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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