469
FXUS63 KDDC 120403
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1103 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY.
- AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER ON FRIDAY.
- OUR NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN CONUS, THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
ABOVE THE CWA CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS PROGGED BY ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNDAY WHERE
THERE IS THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM. CURRENT RAP MESOANALYSIS AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAVE A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND
WEST/NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.
BEYOND THIS PASSAGE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP TO HAVE A
STRONGER SW WIND DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 10-20% WITH THE LOWEST IN THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST AT 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS EXCEED
CRITERIA AND HAVE LED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN
FOR AREAS THAT MAY NOT REACH LOW ENOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, THE
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER RISK. FUELS ARE RIPE AND READY TO ADD TO THE DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN EVERYWHERE
WITH POSSIBLE IGNITION SOURCES AND TAKE THE USUAL FIRE DANGER
PRECAUTIONS. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1-8 PM CDT.
SOME LINGERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LEAK INTO FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT CATCH FIRE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND AIR MORE HUMID SO A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED. THAT SAID TYPICAL PRECAUTIONS ARE
STILL ADVISED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE VARIABLE AT 5-15 MPH.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN KANSAS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY CUT SUNDAY HIGHS WITH 40/50 DEGREE WEATHER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL WITH AREAS SCOTT CITY TO NESS
CITY AND NORTHWARD AT A 25% CHANCE. AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE SEE
CHANCES THAT QUICKLY APPROACH ZERO. NEXT WEEK WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK
UP INTO THE 70/80S WITH LONG RANGED ENSEMBLES HAVING CHANCES (>40%)
FOR 90 DEGREE HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
STRONG SW WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS UP TO 30
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. THE WINDS WILL EASE AROUND 0Z. SOME
MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE AROUND 14-15Z, BUT THE FORECAST AMOUNTS
ARE BELOW TAF INCLUSION LEVELS AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183 BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY, A DRY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP. BASED ON THE MIXING DEPTH
POTENTIAL SHOWN IN THE BUFR SOUNDINGS, THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST. ALSO GIVEN THE MIXING
DEPTH POTENTIAL IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
EASILY FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10%
TO 15% FORECAST RANGE BY LATE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE SHORT TERM
MODELS ALSO SHOW A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE FOR HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS ENHANCE CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE MET. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FROM 1-8
PM CDT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT
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