579
FXUS63 KDDC 101805
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
105 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO POCKETS OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ARE PRESENT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH, TRENDS ARE DECREASING AND PROBABILITIES MAY
DECREASE FURTHER.
- A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS POSITIONED OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS,
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY
RESIDING IN THE UPPER 80S/90S. THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE STORM
CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS GENERATE ANOTHER RISK OF STORMS. THE SPC KEEPS THE
SLIGHT RISK IN FAR SW KANSAS. OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, STORMS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE VIA MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES. STORMS ARE PROGGED TO INITIATE AROUND 5 PM ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS IN COLORADO WILL
SEEMINGLY BE TRIGGERED BY THE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA
FIRE OFF OF A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY DRAPES FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
KANSAS. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR THE CWA TO SEE STORMS TONIGHT APPEARS
TO BE OUT OF THE COLORADO POCKET. BY AROUND 7 PM, MODELS HAVE STORMS
REACHING INTO FAR SW KANSAS. CAMS HAVE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN EXACT
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH, BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE MOSTLY CONVERGED ON THIS
SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED. THE GREATEST THREAT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. THE LATER
AND MORE VOLATILE STORMS WOULD BE NEARER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS CONVECTION WOULD REACH THE AREA, IF AT ALL, AROUND 9-10 PM.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTAINED ENTIRELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 IF IT
MATERIALIZES. MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH 60 MPH GUSTS
AND 1 INCH STONES. BY THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS THE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE AREA.
INTO THE WEEKEND, INCREDIBLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH
ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE RIDGING IN PLACE FOR OVER A WEEK. MOSTLY LIGHT
(<15 MPH) WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE CALM AND DRY WEATHER. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHOUT NOTABLE WEATHER
HEADLINES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IN THIS STRETCH IS THE HEAT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S, HOT BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO FOR SW KANSAS IN JULY. REGULAR
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN INCLUDING HYDRATION AND COOLING BREAKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FLIGHT PERIOD.
WEAK EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MOST CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS COMES WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LATE TONIGHT. THE SCATTERED CHANCES HAS DROPPED RECENTLY WITH ONLY
LBL AT AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. EVERYWHERE
ELSE CAMS ONLY HOST AROUND A 10-15% CHANCE AND THUS WILL BE EXCLUDED
FROM THE TAFS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT STORMS AT ALL SITES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER THE STORMS PASSES VFR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN IF NOT ALREADY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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