355
FXUS63 KDDC 212300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (70-90%) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS SLOWLY AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A VERY BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SREF INDICATES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY.
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK PERTURBATION
CLIMBING THE BACKSIDE OF THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS INTERACTS WITH
A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL CHANCES (70-90%) ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
GIVING WAY TO A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS. A PREVAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS PUSHING THE LOWER 60S(F), PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL INITIALLY
WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THE LATEST NBM PAINTS
A WIDESPREAD 50-70% PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN
INCH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FARTHER
EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, REINFORCING
THE COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST HREF PAINTS A
WIDESPREAD 50-70% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 60F
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE HELP OF SOME CLEARING SKIES
EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S(F) TO NEAR 60F. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY CAN
BE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A SLOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DOING LITTLE TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING
IN H85 TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15C IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE UPPER TEENS(C) OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE HREF INDICATES ONLY A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING
70F TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 75F NEAR AND
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIGHT, MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN LIFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z. CHANCES OF VISIBILITIES 1/2
MILE OR LESS ARE 10% AT ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN 10 TO 12 KTS OR LESS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING,
ANY LOW STRATUS WILL BURN OFF, LEAVING A GRADUALLY RISING AND
SCATTERING OF THE CLOUD DECK TO MVFR AND THEN VFR.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH
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