287
FXUS63 KDDC 140557
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO
DODGE CITY, TO GREAT BEND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
- PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS POSSIBLY
REACHING FREEZING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND AND IS SLOWLY
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS NORTH OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL CREATE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
A LINE FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY, TO GREAT BEND. STORMS IN THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN HIGH EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TO NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN COME
TO AN END THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, THEN MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FRIDAY. WE THEN
REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY WITH 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS IN
THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY REACH FREEZING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR WITH MOMENTS OF IFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. CIGS OF <3000 FT AT ALL AIRPORTS WILL HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL FALL EVEN FURTHER INTO LOW IFR
AND EVEN MOMENTS OF LIFR INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. VISIBILITY AT
KDDC, KLBL, KHYS, AND KGCK WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BELOW 5SM
LATER THIS MORNING DUE TO BR AND SHOWERS. STARTING AROUND
16Z-20Z WEDNESDAY, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAKE PROGRESS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MADE NO
MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAFS AS OF RIGHT NOW GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF SITES. MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED LATER IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LATER
TAF UPDATES OR AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...BENNETT/SUSTAITA
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