731
FXUS63 KDDC 240430
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1130 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST TO UPPER 70S EAST, ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
- PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS
MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83 RECEIVING
THE MOST RAINFALL.
- MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING REVEAL A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ROCKIES, WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHWEST KS RESIDES BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS AND A ~997-MB LOW REACHING FROM ITS CENTER IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A SECONDARY, WEAKER LEE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR
SUNRISE, ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
HOLDING SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60. DAYTIME
SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LOW WILL INCH EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS DPVA INCREASES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN EASTERN CO
AND PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83, AND WILL POSE NO SEVERE THREAT OWING
TO NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME SUNDAY, SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE HREF MEMBERS AND THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES EMERGE AS THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
ADVANCES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HREF MEMBERS INDICATE TRAINING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
BOTH THE ECMWF ENS AND GEFS WHICH CONFINE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION AGAIN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF US-83. GIVEN THE
TREND OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN A
SLOWER, FARTHER WEST SOLUTION WITH THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, THIS SCENARIO WILL BE FAVORED.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
AND PERHAPS EVEN TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES ITS SWEET TIME
EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS, AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE TOTAL PRECIPITATION FIELDS ONCE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5" ALONG AND WEST OF A
WAKEENEY TO LIBERAL LINE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2"
POSSIBLE, AND 0.1-0.5" TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE END OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TO AOA 12 KTS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page