767
FXUS63 KDDC 032215
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR/OVER 100 AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY, AND MEANDER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A TEMPERATURE RANGE WILL
RESULT: COOLEST I-70 TO HOTTEST NEAR OKLAHOMA.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD NEAR AUGUST NORMALS
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE THE HEAT REBUILDS QUICKLY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY OVER
SW KS AND ADJOINING AREAS, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SMOKE
ALOFT WAS PRESENT. LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR
992 MB BY 4 PM, WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTH WINDS CONSIDERABLY
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, AND THE ADDED
MIXING WILL FACILITATE MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES OVER 100 AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED, PARTICULARLY AT
GCK (104/1987). DEWPOINTS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE 50S ALL
ZONES, MAKING THIS A DRY HEAT. AS SUCH, THE HEAT INDEX IS
EXPECTED TO BE HELD BELOW 105 ALL LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH AIR
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 106-108 WEST OF US 83 THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z NAM FORECASTS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING, THEN
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD, ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ZONES AT LEAST
TO A LIMITED EXTENT OVERNIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAR SOUTHEAST
ANY STORMS WILL ADVANCE, BUT WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
LIMITED, THE WEAKER/SLOWER SOLUTIONS ARE PROBABLY CLOSER TO
REALITY. SOME LIMITED POPS WERE MAINTAINED NORTHWEST ZONES
TONIGHT, WITH A LOW RISK OF 50-60 MPH GUSTS GIVEN THE HOT AND
DRY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS SW KS TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST
WIND SHIFT. A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON, WITH SPECIFIC DETAILS DETERMINED BY EXACT FRONTAL
PLACEMENT. NBM FORECASTS A 20 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA AT
4 PM TUESDAY, RANGING FROM 83 NORTHWEST HAMILTON TO 103
SOUTHEAST BARBER. IN BETWEEN, HIGHS WILL BE SHAVED BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 90S AT DDC. THE COOLER AIR MASS SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SUNRISE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S COMMON.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL MIDLEVEL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WELL WEST OF SW KS. AS
SUCH, HEAT WILL REMAIN IN CHECK AT MIDWEEK, WITH 4 PM
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR
SOME NEEDED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES, WITH NBM POPS IN THE
SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND NOW INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY LATE THURSDAY. WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING AROUND, AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE WILL HAVE
RETURNED BY MIDWEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WITH SOME
CAPE AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL
RISK IS EVIDENT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES END, AND THE HEAT
REBUILDS, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE VERY GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD BACK ONTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 06-07Z,
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO AOA 12 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES DURING THE 12-14Z TIME
FRAME, WINDS WILL FLIP TO NORTHERLY AND BE SUSTAINED IN THE
12-15 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-074-075-084>086.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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