272
FXUS63 KDDC 281740
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK
- THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THURSDAY NIGHT
- COOLER TEMPERATURES COMING ON SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
17Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ROTATING IN WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT'S STORMS WHICH IS BRINGING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THE WARMING
TREND A BIT WITH NOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. A LARGE 597 DM
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ROUGHLY FROM LIBERAL TO ST. JOHN WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THE FRONT HEATING INTO THE 28 (C) RANGE.
TONIGHT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
DENVER METRO AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD START TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE WEST. AS THE
STORMS MOVE CLOSE TO THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER THE AREA OF BETTER
SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DUE TO
THE UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AND THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK INTO THESE
AREAS WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A JOHNSON TO HAYS
LINE. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THAT SAID MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER INTO THE EVENING AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT BY
THE TIME THE COMPLEX ARRIVES AND WITH SOME STABILITY RETURNING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS THE COMPLEX MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THEY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY THE REGION SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MORNING STORMS AND
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE PRESENT ALL DAY. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE INTENSE HEAT AT BAY.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN
KANSAS. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
BACK THROUGH THE NIGHT SO THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING WESTERN KANSAS AS AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS (20-30%).
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING A REPEAT THUNDERSTORM SETUP WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND A
COMPLEX OF STORMS ENTERING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WESTERN
KANSAS THE CORE OF THE HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR HIGHS
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 100 THROUGH FRIDAY.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGH MOVING TO THE WEST AND
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE MORE
IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO COME OUT OF COLORADO THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 03Z. VCTS IS
POSSIBLE FOR GCK AND HYS BETWEEN 04-09Z WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH THESE TERMINALS SO THE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THAT 30%
EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE AFFECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
LOWER AT AROUND 5-15 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-080-081-
086>090.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...TATRO
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