019
FXUS63 KDDC 101852
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR T-STORMS BY EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL, ENCOURAGING LEE TROUGHING.
HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY. BUT THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODERATE MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND AGAIN ENCOURAGES
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR A LOW LEVEL WARM PLUME EDGING DOWNSLOPE ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH CLOSE
TO 100 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AFTER TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO 90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RECORD HIGHS AT DODGE
CITY ARE 100 FOR BOTH DAYS.
A SMALL COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS. THERE ARE CHANCES OF
T-STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF T-STORMS IS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE GRAND ENSEMBLE INDICATES 20-30% CHANCES FOR .5" OR
GREATER OF RAIN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS ON RAIN CHANCES
GIVEN THAT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS 10-12 KTS OR LESS. LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KHYS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AS DAYTIME HEATING DRIES OUT THE LOWER
LEVELS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH
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