841
FXUS63 KDDC 110920
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
420 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MUCH LESS HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH STORM CHANCES
- DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT FOR THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING. A MUCH LESS HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S.
IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY, SO IT
WILL FEEL A LOT LESS HUMID THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME RELATIVELY STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS DUSK TONIGHT.
COOLER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THE HRRR DOES SHOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WAA INDUCED SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE THOUGH ON THIS IS IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE, GET
OUT AND ENJOY THE LESS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
THE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AND HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
VERY HOT. EXPECT VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 90S, ALTHOUGH LOW 100S
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS SHOWS THE DEVELOP OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT STARTS TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P'S DO SUGGEST
THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
EVENING. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. EXPECT VERY PLEASANT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH VALUES ONLY PEAKING IN THE 70S. DRY AIR ADVECTION
WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED, SO THE AIR MASS WILL FEEL
A LOT LESS HUMID TO END THE WEEKEND. LOWS HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOLER WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE FA. LOW TO MID 50S LOOKS LIKELY.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS SHOWS SUBTLE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING
TO THE HOT SIDE AS THE WEEK CONTINUES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S OR POSSIBLY EVENING LOW 100S LOWS LIKELY
MIDWEEK ONWARD. LOWS SHOULD TREND WARMER WITH STARTING IN THE
50S AND ENDING IN THE 60S TO 70S AS WE CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A STRONG DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BY 15Z THU, FOLLOWED BY N/NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 KTS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BEGINNING AROUND
21Z THU, AND TREND LIGHT NORTHEAST BY 00Z FRI. AFTER 06Z FRI,
WINDS WILL TREND TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
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