906
FXUS63 KDDC 242213
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
513 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE CENTURY MARK ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 99-105 DEGREE RANGE.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY LOOKING
PARTICULARLY HOT AS HIGHS REACH THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEAL A MODESTLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
HAS BEGUN TO BUILD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD OUT ACROSS NEARLY ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, RESULTING IN A NEBULOUS PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE 500-MB HEIGHT RISES ABOVE SOUTHWEST KS,
EVAPORATIVE COOLING COURTESY OF LAST NIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS WILL HELP
SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER STRONG DNVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER RIDGE
CASTS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON THIS SCENARIO. TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT SATURDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DAYTIME SATURDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL INCH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD TO NEAR THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE FOLLOWING INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW 850-
MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 30-35 DEGREES C RANGE, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 99-105 DEGREE F RANGE AT THE
SURFACE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY VIRTUALLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS, SUPPORTING A PROLONGED DRY, VERY HOT STRETCH
FOR SOUTHWEST KS. MONDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
YEAR SO FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS SURGE INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
RECORD HIGHS OF 109 IN DODGE CITY AND 108 IN GARDEN CITY WILL BE
THREATENED, AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT ADVISORIES, AND PERHAPS AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING, WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
GOOD AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A HOT
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN KANSAS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE
PREVAILING DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ066-080-
081-087>090.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ087>090.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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