287
FXUS63 KDDC 140440
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
- WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
- MAINLY DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A CLOSE TO PERFECT FOR THE MONTH
OF JUNE AS YOU ARE GOING TO GET. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 40S. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH, BUT
OTHER THAN THAT, A VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY. WINDS
WILL START OUT BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY BUT WILL DECREASE IN
MAGNITUDE AS THE DAY CONTINUES. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH VALUES SOLIDLY IN THE 50S.
THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES MONDAY AS WELL. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THE NET RESULT IS
LIGHT WINDS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND HIGHS PEAKING AROUND
80F. THE NBM DOES HAVE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES,
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS MOVING OUT OF
COLORADO. SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREATS DURING THE EVENING.
ON TUESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRAPE ITSELF ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED EVENING STORMS. THE
NBM DOES HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL START TO INCREASE
TUESDAY WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80SF TO AROUND 90F.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF STRONG EVENING STORMS, AS FORECAST SKEW-T/LOG-P'S DO SUGGEST
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, 500 HPA HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALSO
START TO INCREASE WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30SC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE NOTION OF VERY HOT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE NBM IS
FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 101F-103F RANGE. IN FACT, THE
ENS DOES SHOW 80-100% PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS GREATER THAN 100F
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD TOO WITH
VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY START TO WEAKEN OVER NEXT WEEKEND PER THE
ENS. IN FACT, SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE CHANCE POPS THE NBM HAS AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0330Z DEPICTED PERSISTING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LBL/GCK. THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED
ALL OF THE AIRPORTS, WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 35-40 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, PROGRESSIVELY GETTING WEAKER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT LBL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THIS SET OF
TAFS IS DRY, WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
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