951
FXUS63 KDDC 192222
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
522 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY FAR
WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING WITH
60 MPH WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL AND 1-INCH DIAMETER HAIL THE MAIN
RISKS WITH STRONGEST STORM(S)
- WARM-UP BACK TO UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S BY FRIDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
- RELATED TO THE SECOND BULLET, THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
IN WEEKEND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS (AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL)
AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND APPEARS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SKY COVER WAS CLEARING OUT NICELY AFTER THIS MORNING'S ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND AS SUCH, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NEGLIGIBLE.
THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT IF ANY ISOLATED STORM(S) DO
DEVELOP, THEY WOULD FORM PRETTY FAR WEST OUT NEAR THE COLORADO LINE.
THE MUCH GREATER PROBABILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. HREF
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SHOWED THE BEST SIGNAL FOR OUR DDC CWA ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FROM ELKHART TO COOLIDGE/SYRACUSE, ROUGHLY, AND THIS IS
WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT (30 TO 50%, HIGHEST ALONG THE
COLORADO LINE). THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM THE LATEST SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WIND
AND LARGE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORM. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK
LOW LEVEL WINDS, A WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH IS WHY POPS DROP OFF QUITE A
BIT FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SUMMER SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO OUR WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
PUSH EAST INTO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI WITH SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN. THE BEST
CONVERGENCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, FAR NORTHWESTERN KANSAS, AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE-
BASED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. SHOULD A SMALL MCS EVOLVE
THURSDAY EVENING, IT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR,
WHICH IS WHERE POPS WILL BE FOCUSED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD,
ALBEIT ONLY 20-30%.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES REDEVELOPING WITH LOWER-MID 90S LIKELY FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND EVEN HOTTER 98-102F FOR HIGHS MOST AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL FOCUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA ACROSS NEBRASKA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. THIS JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
ALSO PUSH ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS. THIS JET STREAK AND FRONT
ARE NOW A BIT STRONGER IN THE MODELS, PUSHING NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEEPER INTO KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DESPITE
THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE LATEST FORECAST, THE NBM HAS NOT
ENTIRELY CAUGHT UP TO THIS LATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE
WEEKEND, SO EXPECT A DROP IN FORECAST TEMPERATURE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DDC CWA
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY. WE MAY NOT REALIZE THE WIDESPREAD 100+
AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AS CURRENTLY FORECAST, SO KEEP
CHECKING BACK AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE WEEKEND FRONT
STRENGTH/TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY COMPLICATION MAY BE STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES
TO SEE NEARBY SHOWERS ARE HYS IN THE COMING HOURS (0-1Z) AND LBL/GCK
LATER AROUND 5-7Z. VCTS WAS NOT ADDED BECAUSE OF ENSEMBLES KEEPING
CHANCES BELOW 20%. THE STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ARE TRACKED TO MISS
HYS AND DDC WITH TONIGHTS STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINALS IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. THAT SAID A NEARBY STORM OR TWO IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT
(AROUND 5 KTS) AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KBJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page