836
FXUS63 KDDC 131700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..UPDATED DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY HOT, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VIRGA AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- ANY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF US 283 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILDFIRE RISK WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF US 283, WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A CONTINUED CLEAR SKY OVER
SW KS AND THE SURROUNDING REGION. THE VERY QUIET SUBSIDENT
REGIME CONTINUED, COURTESY OF THE STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ARRIVING ON THE PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S.
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH SUNRISE.
THIS ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DETER RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BELOW 60
DEGREES SUNRISE THURSDAY. WARM MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL ACT AS
AN EFFICIENT SPRINGBOARD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH UPPER 90S EXPECTED TO BE COMMON. SWLY DOWNSLOPE AND AN
ADDITIONAL +5C AT 850 MB WILL PUT RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY,
INCLUDING THE DDC MAY 14TH RECORD OF 97 SET MOST RECENTLY IN
1941.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING EASTWARD
OVER SW KS THURSDAY, AS THE TEXAS RIDGE IS FLATTENED. FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL IMPROVE, BUT THERMODYNAMICS WILL REMAIN POOR AND
HOSTILE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED,
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S. THIS COMBINED WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CREATE STRONG INVERTED-V PROFILES,
VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES, AND MOST OF ANY RAINFALL BEING LOST TO
VIRGA. INCREASED POPS TO NEAR 20% WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL CLEARLY
STAY DRY. SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL 5% WIND PROBABILITY, AND WILL
MONITOR FOR DRY MICROBURSTS AND OUTFLOWS/BLOWING DUST. SOME DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALSO SEEM PLAUSIBLE, ADDING TO THE WILDFIRE
RISK.
FRIDAY, CONTINUED SUNNY, HOT AND DRY, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHAVED DOWN ABOUT 5 DEGREES, COURTESY OF A
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL LIKELY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AT PEAK
HEATING, THEN SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO WICHITA'S CWA IN THE
EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISK. AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL GENERALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS,
WITH MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW MAINTAINING THE TYPICAL MAY DRYLINE.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO PLACE THE DRYLINE NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER COUNTIES, TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS, THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. AS SUCH, NBM POPS STRONGLY FAVOR EASTERN ZONES. THE
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM SUPERCELLS OR
BOWING SEGMENTS WILL EXIST EACH OF THESE DAYS, BUT ONLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE, EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF US 283.
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SW KS, UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FIRE DANGER AND CONTINUED DROUGHT. SUNDAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST POTENT IN BOTH REGARDS, WITH
THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS, HIGH END SEVERE POSSIBLE CENTRAL
KANSAS, AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CRITICAL/EXTREME WILDFIRE
DANGER WEST.
EVENTUALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL END BOTH THE SEVERE WEATHER AND WILDFIRE THREATS. COOLER
70S ARE PROJECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF SCATTERED CIRRUS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST
22-25 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z THU. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AND INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN ALL TAFS AFTER 06Z THU. ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z THU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REDUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 10-15%.
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30
MPH ARE EXPECTED. AS SUCH, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR
MORTON, OVER TO COMANCHE COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS WOULD PRODUCE MAINLY VIRGA AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS. WITH MUCH OF ANY RAIN EVAPORATING, DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ084>089.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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