494  
FXUS63 KDDC 020700  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
200 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW,  
FAVORING THE WESTERN ZONES. PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD IS DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS.  
 
- DRY, WARMING TREND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR  
ANALYSIS REVEAL A CUT-OFF RIDGE CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHWEST  
MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO BUILD, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WEAK SURFACE LEE  
TROUGHING HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN FAR SOUTHEAST CO, SUPPORTING  
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY  
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE RIDGE  
SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CREEP  
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.  
SATURDAY EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING REGARDING A SUBTLE  
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CO, WITH SUBSEQUENT ORGANIZATION INTO A  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CO AND TRACKING INTO  
WESTERN KS BY 00-02Z. THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH PRIMARY  
HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL  
STRUCTURES THAT CAN PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO REACH SOUTHWEST KS.  
ONCE THIS LINE OF CONVECTION REACHES ROUGHLY THE US-83 CORRIDOR,  
HREF MEMBERS SUGGEST A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD  
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING, LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT EAST OF  
US-83.  
 
DAYTIME SUNDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.  
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED BY  
GUIDANCE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, YIELDING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA, ALONG WITH SOME  
SCATTERED, POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING  
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US-283. THIS WILL FOSTER SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S  
EAST TO MID 80S NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING EMERGING FROM CO,  
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KS WILL BE IN  
A SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER IMPULSE.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK-WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE  
CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH WHILE  
INCHING ITS WAY EAST TO NEAR CENTRAL NM. THE END RESULT WILL BE  
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION AS STRONG DNVA SUPPRESSES CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S  
ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2025  
 
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY  
DDC, WITH VISIBILITIES TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF MVFR, AND THE  
LATEST HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE DENSITY FIELDS SUGGESTS THIS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, CURRENT LIGHT  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MODESTLY INTO THE 10-15 KTS  
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET TO AOB 10  
KTS.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER  
AVIATION...SPRINGER  
 
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