420
FXUS63 KDDC 142248
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WILL BE SHAVED OFF TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
90S NORTHWEST TO THE 104-107 RANGE SOUTHEAST. THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR 110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PRATT,
STAFFORD AND BARBER COUNTIES.
- SCATTERED, MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING POSING PRIMARILY A SEVERE WIND GUST RISK.
- SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SCATTERED, MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A LARGE
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEARER TO THE SURFACE, A SMALL
POCKET OF LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER WYOMING.
SPEAKING OF SIMILARITIES, TODAY WILL LOOK VERY REMINISCENT OF
YESTERDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN 3
COUNTIES FROM 1 TO 9 PM WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED 110
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME FOR
COMANCHE, CLARK, EDWARDS, KIOWA, AND PAWNEE COUNTIES WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES UP TO 105 DEGREES. THIS REFLECTS THE
NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. WITH AREAS NEAR SCOTT
CITY, HAYS, AND SYRACUSE SEEING HIGHS AROUND 95 DEGREES AND BARBER
COUNTY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HOT. THE STORMS CHANCES TONIGHT CONTINUE TO EERILY DUPLICATE
HOW YESTERDAY LOOKED AT THIS TIME. HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH VERY
LITTLE SHEAR (10-20 KTS VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS) ACCOMPANYING MODEST
SHEAR AND MOISTURE. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN ENVIRONMENT IS THAT
THE SURFACE TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WINDS OF 60-70 MPH. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY, IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS IF EVEN AT ALL. CAMS IN THE
MOST RECENT RUNS HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO THE CWA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET SEVERE WINDS AGAIN. STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INITIATE AROUND 5 PM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS IS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
THE STORMS ARE DEPICTED BY CAMS TO ALSO BE VERY SIMILAR AS THE
ENVIRONMENT AT-LARGE REMAINS NEARLY IDENTICAL. THE LACK OF SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO TAMPER ANY HIGH END THREATS, BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES AND
HIGH CAPE COULD STILL GENERATE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DESPITE BEING
HIGHER BASED STORMS. THE NAMNST HAS SOME STORMS ORGANIZING AND ALMOST
BOWING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HAYS. THIS NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED AS IT WILL LIKELY HOST THE MOST POTENT SEVERE THREAT IF IT
MATERIALIZES (WHICH SHOULD BE TAKEN SKEPTICALLY BETWEEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND VARIABILITY.
SUNDAY WILL FINALLY BE MUCH COOLER RELATIVE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 80S OTHER THAN THE WARMER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. YET AGAIN STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS, AND THE ONES WITH THE MOST SEVERE POTENTIAL,
BEING NEARER TO THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. MORE TIME WILL NEED TO
ELAPSE FOR CAMS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE PROGGED STORMS AND UNCERTAINTY
TO DECEASE.
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, BEFORE TUESDAY AND THE
REST OF THE WEEK WARMS BACK UP. ENSEMBLES SEEM TO HINT AT A SOLID
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OVERNIGHT.
MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES REGARDING STORMS AND THE HEAT WHILE
TAKING PROPER PRECAUTIONS!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 546 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HYS TERMINAL
WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ065-079-080-
088-089.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-
081-090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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