766
FXUS63 KDDC 171731
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
- STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY
- ACTIVE STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
18Z SYNOPSIS SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING
INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR ENTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
ALONG THE FRONT HAS SPIKED 850 TEMPS INTO THE 29-32 (C) RANGE AND
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 18 (C). THIS
HEATING HAS LED TO MANY AREAS ALREADY IN THE 90S BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CONTINUE WITH MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LOW SITS IN NORTHERN
CANADA AND A LARGE RIDGE IS LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
TONIGHT CAMS AND SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT AND THE RESULTANT
DIMINISHING OF SURFACE MOISTURE THAT WE SHOULD HAVE THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WELL EAST OF THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS.
THURSDAY THE DAY SHOULD START WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS.
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND BETTER MIXING THE CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD HAVE A PLEASANT JUNE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY (LESS
THAN 20%) WE COULD HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS MODELS HAVE A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY WE SHOULD START TO SEE A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE
AS THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
A TROUGH ENTERS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
TURNS MORE ZONAL AND THAT MEANS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD BE ON
THE WAY. FRIDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH GOOD LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING STORMS TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (40-50%) ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. CAPE VALUES WILL BE FORECAST AROUND 1100 J/KG AND 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 KT RANGE COULD GIVE US AT LEAST A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY OF INTEREST SEVERE WEATHER WISE AS SPC HAS
OUR I-70 AND K-96 COUNTIES IN A 15% RISK AND CSU MACHINE LEARNING
HAS A BULLSEYE OF 30% SEVERE RISK IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM TERM MODELS HAS THE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING WINDS IN
THE JET STREAK. A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS HAVE A MEAN OF 2000 J/KG MU CAPE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WHILE THE
ENSEMBLES DON'T SHOW MUCH OF A DRYLINE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
KEYING IN MORE ON A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR. SKEW T'S AND HODOGRAPHS ARE HINTING AT GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS AND A FATTER CAPE PROFILE ONCE THE PARCEL GETS
ABOVE THE LCL. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL AND WINDS THE MAIN THREAT AND THE TORNADIC
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. '
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST KEEPING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY IN WESTERLY THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL START THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
EASTERLY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY TO 15-20 KTS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...BENNETT
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