856
FXUS63 KDDC 191816
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS.
UNSEASONABLY COOL/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT,
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES (70-90%)
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SREF INDICATES A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PULL MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS PUSHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK
UP INTO THE 50S(F), BRINGING ABOUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH A MODEST FIELD OF +50KT SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT
LIFT WITHIN EASTERLY UPSLOPING, RAIN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS SUGGEST BY THE HREF, THE BEST CHANCE
FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE THERE IS A 70-90% PROBABILITY
OF 24-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.25 OF AN INCH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A BROADER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOLDING
IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST REINFORCES THE COOLER AIR
MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S(F) WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 45F ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TO ONLY A 10-30% PROBABILITY OF SLIPPING BELOW 45F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPING DOING
LITTLE TO ERODE THE AIR MASS IN PLACE, HOLDING H85 TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10-12C ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
60S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 70-90% PROBABILITY
OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60F WITH HIGHS NEARING 70F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH
LINGERING PRECIP AND PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL
TURN EASTERLY GENERALLY AFTER 00-02Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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