266
FXUS63 KDDC 222224
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
524 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS RANGING FROM 100 TO
NEAR 103 ON MONDAY.
- IMPROVING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS MID
WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
EARLIER THIS MORNING, A 500MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING KANSAS WITH SCATTERED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ALONG/EAST OF A
12-14C 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TODAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ALLOWING SOME COOLER, MORE SEASONAL AIR, TRYING TO FILTER
INTO AREAS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY LATE DAY WILL RESULT IN
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LATE DAY/EVENING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES
OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY
INITIALLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AFTER SUNSET. BASED ON THE LATEST 400MB PVU
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TONIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS COLORADO CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS WELL AFTER SUNSET AND CROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WESTERN KANSAS WILL STILL BE ON THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE UPPER HIGH AS MORE SUBTLE UPPER WAVES
ROTATE AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL EXIT EASTERN COLORADO AND CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WHEREVER OUR
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED. CURRENTLY BASED ON
THE LATEST CAMS IT APPEARS THAT THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER
SOUTH WHICH WOULD ALLOW AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER TO
HAVE THE CHANCE (20-40%) FOR THIS CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER GUSTY
WINDS BEING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS (WEST OF HIGHWAY
83).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 1-3C AND AS A RESULT THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTER KANSAS,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND EAST OF LIBERAL. HOT
AUGUST TEMPERATURES WILL BE RETURNING BUT HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN THESE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND THIS
WILL BE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY END UP KEEPING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10F COOLER COMPARED TO AREAS THAT
DO NOT HAVE ANY CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON WHERE THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES/THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL
BE LOCATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE NBM
GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SUNDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND. IF YOU ARE IN AN
AREA WHERE THE SUN IS OUT BEFORE NOON THEN HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 100. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY. IN CONTRAST
IF YOU HAVE MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN THE
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOWER 90S.
CURRENTLY THE NBM KEEPS THE SKIES CLOUDY AND HAS A 70 TO 75%
CHANCE THAT HIGHS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL BE GREATER LESS
95.
ON TUESDAY WE WILL BE MONITORING A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKING MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS . THIS COLD FRONT WILL
NOT ONLY BRING AN END TO THE WARMING TREND BUT ALSO WILL BRING
IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH PWATS
IMPROVING TO GREATER THAN 85% THAT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR MAY ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM
THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR THIS ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 30 AND 50% CHANCE
FOR 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING AT 7AM WEDNESDAY BEING
>0.25". LATEST NBM GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING 24HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING 0.25" AT 40 TO NEAR 70%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A MODEST BREEZE AT AROUND 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST. AROUND 10-14Z, STORMS ARE FORECAST NORTH OF
ALL TERMINALS AND HAS AROUND A 15% CHANCE TO IMPACT HYS. ENSEMBLES
KEEP LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES BELOW 30% AROUND HYS SO VCTS WAS NOT
ADDED ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...KBJ
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