094
FXUS63 KDDC 261736
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT COLDER
AIR AND PROLONGED CLOUD COVER COULD HINDER THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON
- DISTURBANCE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS SEEN WITH
THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE MAIN CHALLENGE
TODAY IS HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND IF WE CAN REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH AN ENHANCED
RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. IF STORMS DO FORM, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PROBABILITY OF
TORNADOES ARE ALSO MODERATE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. ON
THE OTHER HAND, IF WE REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON, STORMS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FORMING. AND IF THEY DO THEY WILL BE ELEVATED.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS WHERE 70S WILL BE OBSERVED. IN ADDITION TO THE STORM
THEREAT, LOW RHS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINING HIGH. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW TORNADOES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THEN
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE 30S WITH LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE STORM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
TODAY/TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ENSEMBLE MODELS THEN
SUGGEST A SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS OF
NOW, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS
THEN RETURN LATE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
60S ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY AT THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE LBL TERMINAL
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KNOTS WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF KANSAS, NOTABLY GRANT, MORTON, STANTON,
AND STEVENS COUNTIES. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
WEATHER SPREAD DUE TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30
MPH OVER-TOP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING AS LOW
AS 13%. BURNING IS DISCOURAGED AS ANY FIRES THAT POTENTIALLY
BREAK OUT CAN SPREAD QUICKLY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ074-075-
084-085.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
FIRE WEATHER...BENNETT
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