053
FXUS63 KDDC 260537
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
..UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
WARMER AND MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD AS
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, AND FURTHER
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRAW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, A LACK
OF INSTABILITY AND A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER PRECIP
CHANCES. A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHERLIES
STRENGTHEN, DRAWING WARMER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 60S(F) ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW REINFORCES A
MILDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY AROUND
THE UPPER 40S(F) TO THE LOWER 50S(F).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND SE COLORADO. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEW POINTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS FORMING PRIMARILY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE CAP WEAKENS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART WITH A STRONG CAP THERE SHOULDN'T BE MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THURSDAY HAS A SIMILAR SETUP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EAST HOWEVER CONVECTION CHANCES ARE STILL LOW DUE TO A STRONG CAP.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORM BY EVENING IN THE FAR EAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT STARTS TO COME IN WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAKENED CAP AROUND PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE.
FRIDAY BOTH LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND A GOOD BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETUPS UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE A QUIET WEEKEND WEATHERWISE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY MID/LATE MORNING THEN
INCREASE 15 TO 25KT GENERALLY AFTER 17Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DDC 39 68 50 77 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 38 68 50 79 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 38 70 51 80 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 39 69 50 80 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 38 67 50 78 / 10 0 0 10
P28 39 65 48 74 / 0 0 0 10
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...TATRO
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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