493
FXUS63 KDDC 050931
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
431 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FAVORING
AREAS NORTHWEST OF DODGE CITY. AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COMMON.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE (28-32 DEGREES) EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING.
- RAPID WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER RESUMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTREMELY BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHING
EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) RETURN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY-TILTED CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY, PHASING IN WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES
TONIGHT AS IT CYCLES THROUGH THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH AN INTENSIFYING +130KT JET LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN EAST-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY THIS EVENING
AS H5 VORT MAXIMA BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH RAIN
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HREF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE THERE IS A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR QPF
EXCEEDING 0.5 OF AN INCH BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH
LESSER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE THERE IS 70-90% PROBABILITY OF 24-HR QPF ONLY
TOPPING 0.1 OF AN INCH.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN HIGHS TODAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES
DROP TO A LITTLE BELOW 5C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP
INTO THE 50S(F) TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY THE HREF POINTING TO A
40-60% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 50F IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES TOPPING 55F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE COOLING
TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HELPS PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH H85
TEMPERATURES SLIPPING CLOSER TO 0C. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 40S(F) WITH THE HREF INDICATING ONLY A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES NUDGING ABOVE 40F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A
80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE 45F IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, ESPECIALLY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING STRATUS
CEILINGS, AND INCREASING AREAS OF RAIN, ALONG WITH LOWERING
VISIBILITY IN BR/DZ/RA. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 30-35 KTS
AS OF 0930Z TUE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH
TUESDAY, LOWERING TO IFR BY 06Z WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AIRPORTS 06-12Z WED, WITH REDUCING VISIBILITY IN
BR/RA TO 3SM AT TIMES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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