664
FXUS63 KDDC 090426
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WELL OVER 100 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE A DRY HEAT
WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS, INCREASING THE RISK OF DEHYDRATION
EACH AFTERNOON. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND ENSURE PETS AND
LIVESTOCK HAVE A SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20%) EXIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING AS THE SREF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED H5 VORT MAXIMA CYCLING SOUTHEAST OFF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. NEAR THE SURFACE,
PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL SUPPORT POOLING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING DRYLINE, PROVIDING MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE
VALUES UPWARD OF 1000 J/KG OR SO. DESPITE WEAKER DYNAMIC SUPPORT
ALOFT, STEEPING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN VICINITY OF AN AXIS
OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS H5 VORT MAXIMA TRANSITION THROUGH.
THIS IS SUGGESTED BY A FEW CAMS AND THE HREF POINTING TO ONLY A
10 TO 20% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING A MERE 0.1 OF AN
INCH IN VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY LATE EVENING.
HOTTER/DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ENHANCES A DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
KANSAS. WITH THE HREF PAINTING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 75F IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO
TO ONLY A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF SLIPPING BELOW 75F IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO 70S(F). SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY, NUDGING H85 TEMPERATURES UP FROM SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
ABOVE 30C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 35C NEAR THE COLORADO LINE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING 100F WITH THE HREF SHOWING
A WIDESPREAD 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING THE
CENTURY MARK. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
HOT AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT COVERAGE IS 20% OR LESS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BENNETT
KEY MESSAGES...TURNER
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