820
FXUS63 KDDC 201845
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%) THURSDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRIFTING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) PICK UP EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS THE SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 VORT
MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NEAR
THE SURFACE, PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST UPSLOPING WILL DRAW
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS PUSHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F), INCREASING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT WITH
MUCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG. COMBINED WITH A MODEST
FIELD OF +50KT SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LIFT WITHIN
EASTERLY UPSLOPING, SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING, THEN
SPREADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY AS
SUGGESTED BY CAMS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH RELATIVELY WEAK QPF SIGNALS
PRESENT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HREF INDICATING ONLY A 20-40%
PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS, CENTRAL KANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 50 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (50-70% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY EVENING AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT, AND FARTHER
DOWN INTO THE WESTERN COLORADO ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE,
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO,
ENHANCING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPING, PUSHING SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP CLOSER TO 60F. DESPITE THE
LACK OF A ROBUST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (<50KT), THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO
AS H5 VORT MAXIMA KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY EVENING. THIS IS SUGGESTED
BY THE HREF PAINTING A 40-60% PROBABILITY OF 6-HR QPF EXCEEDING
0.25 OF AN INCH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPING REMAINS SLOW TO ERODE THE COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. WITH THE HREF INDICATING A 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES SLIPPING BELOW 55F ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO BETTER THAN A 90%
PROBABILITY OF BELOW 55F IN WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS, EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 40S(F). INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIALLY LINGERING AREAS OF PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THURSDAY. PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPING WILL HELP SUPPORT H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 10C
IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL ABOVE 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
CONSIDERING THE HREF POINTS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 60F WITH THE COOLEST AIR NORTH, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S(F) WITH NEAR 70F IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA LINE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY,
HELPING PUSH HIGHS TOWARD THE LOWER/MID 70S(F).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES WITHIN AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 04-06Z. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EARLY THURSDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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