634
FXUS63 KDDC 181028
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL HELP AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
- LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE BUSINESS WEEK, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN STORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LATE
SATURDAY EVENING REVEAL WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL EAST COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHERN WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, MODEST HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST IS SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS. WHILE
THESE WINDS WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD HELP RADIATIONAL COOLING IN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DAMPEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD, YIELDING BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEAK LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE OVER EASTERN CO, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT 15-25 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH 850-MB TEMPERATURES WARMING BY 1-3
DEGREES C WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS TICKING UP A BIT INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT, ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
DAYTIME MONDAY, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES, AS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH, A POWERFUL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST BY 06Z TUESDAY.
THEREFORE, NEARLY IDENTICAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S, THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS OWING TO THE WEAK LEE CYCLONE IN EASTERN CO WASHING
OUT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM, BUT IT
FINALLY GAINS SOME EASTWARD MOMENTUM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A DRY, WARMING TREND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BUSINESS WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INCREASING
FROM THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT WAVE, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW COURTESY OF PREDICTABILITY ISSUES AT THAT
RANGE. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THE NBM DOES HAVE SOME REASONABLY
WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE (15-24%) POPS WITH SOME LOW-END CHANCE (25-
54%) POPS SPRINKLED IN, BUT THESE SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN
OF SALT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH VFR/SKC AND INCREASING CIRRUS MONDAY MORNING. AFTER
15Z SUN, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL AIRPORTS, GUSTING NEAR
30 KTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TURNER
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