818
FXUS63 KDDC 051006
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
506 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES RETURN MORE NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2026
RIDGING OVER THE THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DRIVING
FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER HERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, STORM CHANCES
FALL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO END THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ONLY BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERLY PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND
LACKING DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, RIGHT ON PAR FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
FORECAST WILL REFLECT ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO RISE EACH DAY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHERE TRIPLE DIGITS APPEAR TO MAKE A RETURN. 01Z NBM
PROBABILITIES OF MAX TEMPERATURES 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER ARE
40-80% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THE TRIPLE DIGITS
POTENTIAL WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
GLOBALS SHOW SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKING A
COMEBACK, MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NBM POPS ARE GENERALLY
30-60% CHANCE BOTH DAYS. NO REAL ORGANIZED FLOW IS MODELED ON
EITHER DAY, SO STORM ORGANIZATION AND SEVERITY WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE KEPT AT BAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
EASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS BY 18Z TODAY. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN A FEW
LOCATION TO 3 TO 5 MILES, MAINLY IN THE DODGE CITY AND HAYS
AREAS THROUGH 14Z. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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