647
FXUS63 KDDC 251007
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF US-83 WILL
MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY, REACHING NEAR US-283.
- PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
FROM THE MAIN TROUGH, HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY
REIGNITE SHOWERS FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY DUBIOUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE SATURDAY EVENING SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES,
COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AS PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, MAKING LITTLE TO NO
EASTWARD PROGRESS AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS LARGELY
STATIONARY. DAYTIME SUNDAY, A RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MAKE AT LEAST SOME
EASTWARD HEADWAY, REACHING NEAR US-283 BY SUNSET. NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT, AND EVEN THUNDER WILL BE SPARSE, IF EXISTENT AT ALL.
PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WEST TO THE UPPER 50S EAST.
DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING, HOWEVER THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS DNVA IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE OVERSPREADS SOUTHWEST
KS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-
1.5" RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF US-83, THE 0.25-1" RANGE BETWEEN US-83
AND US-183, AND JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A PERHAPS A TENTH EAST OF
US-183. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER VORTICITY
MAX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS OUR AREA,
WHICH MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. NBM PAINTS SOME CHANCE (25-54%) TO LIKELY (55-74%)
POPS IN RESPONSE THAT PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
BE MAINTAINED, FOSTERING UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THESE
ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY,
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF KLBL, KGCK,
AND POSSIBLY KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 16-18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH LATE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TURN SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20KT AFTER
16-18Z AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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