236
FXUS63 KDDC 081038
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING, WITH THE SKY ONLY GRADUALLY CLEARING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. STORMS FAVOR NORTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY, AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY.
- TWO HOT AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS NEAR 100.
- A COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE
HEAT ON THURSDAY WITH MILDER NORTH WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFOS NORMAN/WICHITA, ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR BARBER COUNTY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERAL HOURS OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 105-107
ACROSS AND NEAR BARBER COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A QUIET SUMMER EVENING WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS PREVAILING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY, BUT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
AREAS OF FOG WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY ACROSS MUCH OF SW KS THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY. WITH A VERY MOIST UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT
STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO BE COMMON EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE TIED TO HOW EFFICIENTLY STRATUS
CLEARS DURING THE DAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES, NEAR 100, ARE
EXPECTED ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA, CLOSEST TO THE BUILDING RIDGE,
AND WHERE ANY STRATUS WILL BE MOST FLEETING. NORTH OF US 50,
STRATUS MAY HOLD MUCH OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY AS SHOWN BY
00Z NAM, MAINTAINED AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. AS SUCH,
THERE MAY BE A TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUST ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES, WHERE STRATUS MAY HOLD SOME LOCATIONS IN THE 80S
OR EVEN 70S.
SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
SW KS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z NAM DEVELOPS STRONG TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY, WITH CAPE > 4000 J/KG COMMON BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT, TRIGGERING MECHANISMS ARE LACKING. WARM
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL PROVIDE A CAPPING INVERSION, AND
PROGRESSIVELY RISING HEIGHTS WILL WORK AGAINST ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE. THE LONGER STRATUS CAN PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, THE HARDER IT WILL BE FOR CONVECTION
TO INITIATE. SEVERAL CAMS SUCH AS 00Z ARW/RRFS/HRRR DO SHOW
EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF/NORTH OF
HAYS AROUND 4 PM. ANY STORM THAT CAN MATURE, AND UTILIZE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY, WILL BE CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY HIGH END
HAIL/WIND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
POPS IN THE GRIDS ARE MINIMAL, FAVORING THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
TUESDAY PROMISES TO BE WINDY AND HOT, AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS
SIGNIFICANTLY AT 850 MB, AND SOUTH WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE.
850 MB WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN
THE EXPECTED HOT, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 98-102 ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
APPEARS LIKELY AT PEAK HEATING, AS SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS DOES NOT APPEAR TOO INHIBITIVE. STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR
THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALONG A TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS, AND IN A
HOT INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT, STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY RISK. SPC CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL 5% RISK
OF WIND/HAIL TUESDAY.
THE PEAK OF THE HEAT CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 98-104 IN THE AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, WHERE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-107 ARE FORECAST BY THE NBM. HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WHERE SWLY DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION CAN BE
MAINTAINED THE LONGEST, PROBABLY THE PREFERRED RED HILLS
SOUTHEAST OF DDC. A DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY NORTH WINDS AND A BREAK FROM THE
HEAT THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WITH THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
CLEARLY MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
FOR AREA NORTH OF THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS AND AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR GCK AND DDC AROUND 12-13Z AND IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
FOR HYS THROUGH 16Z. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH WE SHOULD SEE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR DDC,
LBL, AND GCK FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AND CLOUD CEILINGS
SLOWLY RISING AT HYS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AFTER 16Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN
30%) OF AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL BETWEEN
20-23Z. SHOULD A STORM AFFECT THE TERMINAL IT WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT TO BE A SUPERCELL WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 50 KTS
POSSIBLE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ090.
UPDATE...TURNER
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TATRO
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