774
FXUS63 KDDC 050501
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1101 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING FROM 2-11
AM CST.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
WESTERN THREE COUNTIES.
- LIMITED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS. LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER SATURDAY, WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND WICHITA WITH
DODGE CITY DOWN TO 4 MILE VISIBILITIES. THE FORECAST IS THAT THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DENSE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. TO THAT
END, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN 3/4 OF THE
CWA FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILES IS EXPECTED.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND DENSITY
(ESPECIALLY OUT WEST). IT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR AROUND 10-11 AM.
THURSDAY AFTER THE FOG AND STRATUS CLEARS, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RACE UP TO AND BEYOND 70 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT
WEST. THE SPC HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EASTWARD
SIGNIFICANTLY, NOW ONLY COVERING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHING AND
REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE
REMAINED STEADY IN HOLDING THE DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE KS/CO
BORDER. THIS IS A ROUGH DEMARCATION LINE OF WHERE STORM ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN DRY AND MAY PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER RISK. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 15-20% AND WINDS UP TO
25-30 MPH WITH EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. AS A RESULT, A MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK SHOULD BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF THE REGION OF
DRIEST AIR STRETCHES FARTHER INTO SW KANSAS. THE EASTERN 3
COUNTIES, MORTON, STANTON, AND HAMILTON ARE UNDER A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM.
FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT, THE FOCUS WILL BE IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND/OR REACH THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH
THE RAP AND THE NAMNST HAVE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF CIN.
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (BARBER AND
SURROUNDING) WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION (<10% VIA
ENSEMBLES). WITH VIRTUALLY NO STRONG FORCING LOCATED IN KANSAS,
STORMS WILL NEED TO INITIATE IN THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE
EVENING BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD CLIPPING THE CWA. IT WOULD
BE ROUGHLY 11 PM BY THE STORMS MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH IF AT ALL.
IN THE EVENT THAT THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP AND TRACK INTO THE
AREA, THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND LIKELY ONLY A NOTABLE HAIL
THREAT UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES. WHILE UNLIKELY, THE OTHER TWO SEVERE
THREATS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. STORMS THAT MAKE IT WILL
HAVE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(40-50 KTS), AND ENOUGH CAPE TO SUSTAIN ALREADY DEVELOPED
STORMS. THE CAMS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT ON WEATHER THE ENTIRE DAY
FOR SW KANSAS IS CAPPED OUT. RAP AND NAMNST HAVE VIRTUALLY NO
CONVECTION. MOST OTHER CAMS HAVE AT LEAST SOME STORMS MAKING IT
UP INTO BARBER COUNTY AND NOT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST. ANY STORM
THREAT THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE OVER BY AROUND 2 AM.
MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DRYLINE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. ONE KEY TO FRIDAY'S
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE WHERE THE DRYLINE IS PLACED DURING POSSIBLE
INITIATION. ENSEMBLES HAVE IT AROUND THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 281
CORRIDORS. IN THE EVENT THAT INITIATION IS A LITTLE LATER
AND/OR THE DRYLINE IS FARTHER EAST THAT ANTICIPATED, SW KANSAS
MAY MISS OUT ON CONVECTION NEARLY ENTIRELY. IF NOT, THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND DESCENDING COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A POTENT FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRATT ONLY HOLDS
AROUND A 25% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION VIA ENSEMBLES. THESE
CHANCES DROP TO BELOW 10% REACHING DODGE CITY. AS SUCH, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE CWA WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN
SPATIAL SCOPE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL THAT IN MIND,
INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY MARCH
STANDARDS. THE NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDING HAS CAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG, SRH AT 150-200 M2/S2, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 50-60 KTS.
WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL INITIALLY LEAN TOWARDS A
SUPERCELLULAR MODE ESPECIALLY EARLY AS WOULD BE NEEDED TO AFFECT
THE CWA. THIS EARLY TIMING WOULD BE ROUGHLY 3 PM AND WOULD NOT
LAST LONG BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD.
FAR SW KANSAS HAS FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10-15% AND
WINDS UP TO 20 MPH. CURRENTLY THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TOO LIGHT FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT AS WINDS ACROSS SW KANSAS TEND TO
OVER PREFORM THIS MAY CHANGE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
FORECAST CYCLES. REGARDLESS OF MEETING SPECIFIC HEADLINE
CRITERIA, GENERAL PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL ADVISED.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MUCH COOLER DOWN IN THE UPPER 50S. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS SUNDAY WARMS TO THE 70S AND MONDAY GOES FURTHER PUSHING
TOWARDS 80 DEGREES. LONG-RANGED ENSEMBLES HAVE HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT ENOUGH
TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT
DECLARATIVE STATEMENTS ARE FUTILE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND LOWERED DDC DOWN TO 3SM. THE
FOG IS FORECAST TO GET MORE DENSE AND DEVELOP WESTWARD EVENTUALLY
REACHING ALL TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP DOWN TO 1/4
VISIBILITIES WITH ENSEMBLES HAVING THEM FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1/4 SM. AFTER THE FOG/LOW STRATUS BEGIN CLEAR AT AROUND
15-16Z, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 20-25 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. DDC AND HYS
MAY SEE SOME LLWS IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX
EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR 15% WEST OF THE DRYLINE, AND THIS
MUCH DRIER AIR MAY INTRUDE INTO PORTIONS OF HAMILTON, STANTON
AND MORTON COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF STRONG TO INTENSE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED. WHERE THESE
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVERLAP, CRITICAL WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY REMAIN IN
COLORADO, BUT OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR HAMILTON,
STANTON AND MORTON COUNTIES FOR NOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ061-074-084.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
FIRE WEATHER...TURNER
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