850
FXUS63 KDDC 181728
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1128 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY-FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
08Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE, HEIGHTS WILL RISE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH IT, CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN, AS HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 50S. HOWEVER, THESE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHS, AND AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK
WHEN A STORM SYSTEM FILTERS IN COOLER AIR WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK AROUND SEASONAL NORMS BY THIS WEEKEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK. IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE 01Z NBM POPS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THE EVENT. POPS
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAXING OUT UP TO 70-90% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH, ADVECTING
AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER REGION.
THIS TRACK KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE STORMS COOLER SIDE,
RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL RATHER THAN
HEAVIER, CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LATEST 01Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 1" IS MAINTAINED 40-60% FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PROBABILITIES
IN EASTERN AREAS. THERE IS UP 30-50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1.5"
OF PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, WPC
MAINTAINS A CWA-WIDE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4; AT LEAST 5%)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO AREAS OF FLOODING. THIS WOULD
CONSTITUTE VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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