377
FXUS63 KDDC 280803
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAST NICE OUTDOOR DAY TODAY
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLAMS THROUGH SATURDAY
- COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY FOR A WHILE TO GET OUTSIDE AND DO ANY OUTDOOR
STUFF THAT IS NEEDED. DRAMATICALLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER. FOR TODAY, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE QUITE MILD
WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 60F BY
ELKHART. FOR THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE UPSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS WITH A LEE LOW DEEPENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE NET RESULT IS STRONG WAA WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. EVEN WITH THE WARM AND WINDS, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY, DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE
TODAY VIA THE WAA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING OUT ACROSS
KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT BY THE MORNING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL OCCUR
MOST LIKELY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY AS WELL. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WITH NUMBERS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED,
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FA AND MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRYSLOTTED. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY MOISTURE,
IT SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREATER REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO
30S SUNDAY AND 30S FOR MONDAY. COLD LOWS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND ONLY TEENS MONDAY.
WIND CHILL VALUES BOTH MORNINGS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. USE
CAUTION AND TAKE ACTION TO KEEP YOURSELF PROPERLY PROTECTED WITH
THE COLD SPELL. IN ADDITION, AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION MIGHT DEVELOP
WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME OF THE FA WITH
SOME SNOWFALL. RIGHT NOW THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE EC GIVING PARTS OF THE FA A FEW INCHES AND THE GFS HAS MOST
OF THE SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF THE FA. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE MODELS
FOR ANY CONSENSUS WITH TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LOW VFR OR EVEN MVFR CIGS FOR KHYS AND KLBL BUT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LLWS VIA A 40 KT LLJ IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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