496
FXUS63 KDDC 071104
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
- CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MID TO
LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL DRIFT A BIT
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES. THE RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK ABOVE
100. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 95-100 WITH 100-103 ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD 100-105 ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH 102-107 BY SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, THE CONSENSUS WAS UNCERTAINTY FROM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY
HEAT HEADLINES TODAY, BUT MAY BE NEEDED IN UPCOMING DAYS.
WITH A RELATIVE BREAK IN STORM CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
POPS COME BACK STRONG WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NBM POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME INCREASE TO 40-70%. WITH THE EXPECTED BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE, COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE, SEEMS
REASONABLE CHANCES INCREASE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND TIMING, BUT NBM PROBABILITIES AND GEFS/ENS/GEPS
ENSEMBLE DO SUGGEST AT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS. TIMING AND
LOCATIONS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THIS TAF PERIOD AS THUNDERSTORM
RISK WILL PUSH AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
PREVAILING WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AS A HOTTER AIR MASS
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH, AND THIS WILL PREVENT DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WIDESPREAD
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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