441
FXUS63 KDDC 210536
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
- WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
HIGHS UP TO THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER DETAILS ON ANY POTENTIAL STORM ARE HIGHLY
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO
EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER.
TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YOUNG COLD
SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S. CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH A CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WIND, AND LOW DEWPOINTS. FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WE WENT WITH 10-25TH PERCENTILE NBM FOR LOWS FOR
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED REASONING REGARDING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS, MONDAY AND
FOLLOWING DAYS WILL BE COLDER AS A FRESH CONTINENTAL-POLAR CANADIAN
AIR MASS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, INCLUDING WESTERN
KANSAS.
AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK AND TOWARD THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY, THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
AS EXTENDED PACIFIC JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE CONUS, ALBEIT
INITIALLY OF HIGH ZONAL INDEX. ONE OR TWO FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EARLY-MID WEEK WILL NOT DO MUCH AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS CONCERNED FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, OTHER THAN DRY COLD FRONT
PASSAGES, HOWEVER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW A MORE ROBUST DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A FORMIDABLE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, 43% OF
THE 100-MEMBER GRAND ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP HAVE ACCUMULATED QPF 0.01"
OR GREATER, BY THURSDAY EVENING 65%, AND BY FRIDAY EVENING 72%. MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TYPE AS SNOW MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK, AS THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A COLD ENOUGH
AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR SNOW VS. RAIN. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEM TRENDS GIVEN THE SENSITIVE
TIMING OF A POTENTIAL EVENT AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTH AND THEN BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH
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