483
FXUS63 KDDC 190400
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
- VERY HOT WITH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
- LOW STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID 90S. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
HEATING AND PWATS FORECAST BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE,
HAVE ADDED SOME LOW 20% POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL IN AREAL COVERAGE, AND MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. SEVERAL CAMS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SCATTERED
OR ISOLATED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH VALUES BOTTOMING IN THE 60S OUT WEST TO 70S IN THE EAST.
A 594 TO 596 DECAMETER ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREATER REGION
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES
PEAKING AROUND 100 F OR EVEN LOW 100S F FOR THE FA. WITH SUCH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE AREA, THIS SHOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY STORM POTENTIAL.
LOWS HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE
EAST. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES,
AS THE HEAT INDEX WILL START TO GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA (105
F). WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT TO THE NEXT SHIFT, AS
IT IS A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
THE HEAT CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER
THE FA. THE NBM IS LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL RIGHT NOW
AND HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 100S F. WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK, WITH VALUES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT JUST IN THE 70S INSTEAD OF
THE 60S.
THE 500 HPA RIDGE MAY START TO FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS MAY ALLOW MOISTURE AND STORMS TO RIDE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
NBM HAS SOME LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVAILING ANTICYCLONE. OTHERWISE, MUCH
OF THE FA WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN ON THE VERY WARM TO HOT SIDE. MILD AND WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNINGS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH MORE VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER CROP OF CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER
18Z SUN. A FEW SMALL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THE ODDS OF ONE IMPACTING AN AIRPORT ARE LESS THAN 20%, AS
SUCH THIS TAF UPDATE IS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
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