495
FXUS63 KDDC 061643
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
- THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW AND
WAS CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND WARM WEDGE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH TOWARDS NEBRASKA LATE WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL BY
2-4C AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES TONIGHT BUT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL 60-70% GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS A RESULT THE CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS TODAY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON RANGING MAINLY FROM 18 TO AROUND
22C. BASED ON THIS AND THE RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS
WITH THIS SOLUTION, IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWEST KANSAS CAN LOOK
FORWARD TO TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THIS
SAID THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS HAS HAD A COOL BIAS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS (MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS) WILL NOT END UP SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FOR HIGHS TO BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S.
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST LATE WEEK AS
OUR NEXT, SIGNIFICANT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
DEEPENS, THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES DEEPEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION A 40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLES MEAN ALSO SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS AS THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND NBM MAX WIND GUSTS FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW AREAS COULD EVEN SEE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AT 50 MPH IF A FEW
OF THE MODELS VERIFY THAT FAR OUT.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WE STILL ARE MONITORING THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING/TRACK
OF THIS NEXT UPPER WAVE NEXT WEEK BUT WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT THE
MODELS WERE FORECASTING NEXT WEEK 24 HOURS EARLIER IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS NOW MID WEEK.
BASED ON THIS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THIS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES NOW HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THIS COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY. CURRENT PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE LESS THAN 70S DEGREES RANGES FROM 40 TO
50 PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY. IN THE SAME AREA THE
PROBABILITY FOR LOWS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME TO BE LESS THAN
45 DEGREES RANGES FROM 20-30%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES
INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THIS
BOUNDARY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
FORECAST SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES GREATER THAN 95 PERCENT AROUND
DAYBREAK NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF
FOG. CURRENTLY HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF THE VISIBILITY <5MILES
RANGES FROM 20 TO 40% WITH THIS FOG AT ALL 4 TAF SITES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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