119  
FXUS63 KDDC 211915  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
215 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
..UPDATE TO LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF A FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. STEEPENING LOW/MID  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL  
UP INTO THE 60S(F) AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE  
AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CAPPING  
ERODES. MEANWHILE, DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE  
WITH AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONG +100KT  
JET CORE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIGHT  
ENTRANCE REGION SETTING UP GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,  
VIRTUALLY STRADDLING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMBINED WITH  
SBCAPE VALUES UPWARD OF 2500 J/KG AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR, THIS WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL  
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT.  
 
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT BEHIND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE 60S(F)  
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER AIR WILL SURGE INTO WESTERN KANSAS  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY AND MUCH STRONGER COLD  
FRONT. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOWER 80S(F) POSSIBLE  
NEAR AND ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS  
SETTLED ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONS  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY  
TUESDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SETTING UP  
AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH  
PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS. WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLING  
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA INCREASING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA  
EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE  
SOUTH PLAINS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE PANHANDLES OF  
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WITH POTENTIAL STORMS THEN POSSIBLY SPREADING  
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY  
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST, SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO  
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, AN EXPECTED WEAKER FLOW ALOFT  
ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY AS IT PERTAINS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PLAY FACTORS INTO WHERE THE BEST CHANCE  
FOR STORMS WILL BE.  
 
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES AND RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING  
WILL RESULT IN WARM UP MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 80S(F).  
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE  
WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO PUSH THROUGH  
WESTERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH  
LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EARLY  
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT,  
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KHYS AND KDDC AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS  
KGCK GENERALLY AFTER 22Z. OTHERWISE, PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS/VSBYS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT RESULTING  
IN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS NEAR KHYS AND KDDC TOWARD DAYBREAK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DDC 58 78 54 85 / 50 30 0 0  
GCK 55 78 52 86 / 40 10 0 10  
EHA 55 78 53 86 / 20 0 0 10  
LBL 58 78 53 86 / 20 10 0 10  
HYS 57 77 53 83 / 80 40 0 0  
P28 65 80 57 83 / 50 50 0 0  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON  
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON  
AVIATION...JJOHNSON  
 
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