021  
FXUS63 KEAX 290830  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.  
 
* RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THIS WEEKEND.  
 
* COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
 
DIFFUSE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH BROAD AREA OF  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.  
RETURN FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DRAWING SATURATED AIR NEAR  
THE SURFACE NORTHWARD LEADING TO FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO WEST  
CENTRAL MISSOURI. CAMS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO BUILD AS FAR  
NORTH AS THE KC METRO BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL BE MONITORING  
OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSED DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TOWARDS 15Z AS SHALLOW  
FOG MIXES OUT.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT TODAY, COULD SEE A FEW  
CUMULUS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS A BIT MORE ABUNDANT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8  
C/KM, SO CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER UP  
TOWARDS KIRKSVILLE, BUT THINK THE BULK OF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS  
WILL BE FOCUSED A BIT FARTHER EAST WHERE THE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY  
IS SLIGHTLY GREATER. SIDED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID  
80S, JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO  
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH  
AND EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPANDING RAIN CHANCES  
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,  
THOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THESE STORMS  
RELATIVELY BENIGN. DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL EAT AWAY  
AT PRECIPITATION TOTALS SATURDAY, BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT INCREASES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME A BIT  
MORE NUMEROUS WITH MORE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL TOTALS (0.25-0.50")  
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM DROPS  
SOUTHEAST MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO MAKE  
IT INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US, THE SLOW  
MOVING TROUGH KEEPS THE RIDGE BOTTLED TO THE WEST. A STRONG COLD  
FRONT TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY  
COULD STRUGGLE TO WARM BEYOND THE 60S WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES  
TUMBLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, PATCHY AREAS OF  
FOG COULD SETTLE IN NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING REDUCING  
VISIBILITIES. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT, LEFT IN A  
TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL  
HEATING.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BT  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
 
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