040
FXUS63 KEAX 290430
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1030 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES SET TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
* LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
* MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
CONCENTRATED IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY'S SO-CALLED "WARM UP" IS PACKING ITS BAGS AS WE LOOK AHEAD AT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. A SHORTWAVE IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, WITH
THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY. AROUND MIDDAY,
SOME VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGIN TO CREEP IN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE PARTICULARLY WELL, HOWEVER, WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING A RATHER LOW- IMPACT EVENT. AT MOST,
WE'RE LOOKING AT A DUSTING OF SNOW, AND POPS REMAIN LOW DUE TO A
LACK OF STRONG ASCENT.
CAA WILL BRING OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
TOMORROW, AND PESKY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BITTER WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AM. PROBABILITIES OF REACHING -15F STILL SIT
BETWEEN 30-50%, SO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED IF
CONFIDENCE IN LOW WIND CHILLS INCREASES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR
MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH THIS WAVE ARE STILL LIMITED.
"WARMER" TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE-FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE'RE CONTINUING TO
KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO HOVER JUST AROUND
FREEZING DURING THAT TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE RAIN WITH SNOW MORE
LIKELY NORTH OF I-70; PROBABILITIES FOR WINTRY MIXES ARE
MINIMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST. LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP SNOW MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VARYING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST, AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...CDB
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