286  
FXUS63 KEAX 132341  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
641 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40%) SHIFT TOWARD W/NW AREAS BY THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
* WARMING TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY  
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY  
- AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON, UP TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
 
* NEXT NOTABLE PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION  
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING, DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.  
- THIS INCLUDES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
AS BROADLY EXPECTED THE LAST FEW DAYS, COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
GRADUALLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, SETTLING  
TOWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR, DRAGGING LIGHT RAIN  
AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT  
SETTLED IN SAID AREA, THE COLDER AND DRIER NEAR-SURFACE AIR MASS  
LAGGED BACK TOWARDS THE N/NW ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND INTO IOWA AND  
NEBRASKA. TO THE WEST, WEAK RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS TOO DEVELOPED IN  
RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING THE BROADER FLOW. THIS  
RESULTED IN LITTLE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN AS ACTIVITY APPROACHED THE  
KS/MO BORDER, THANKS IN PART TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT A BIT OF  
DRIER AIR WORKING AGAINST IT. AS WE WORK INTO THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE AND ROUND  
THE RIDGE, KEEPING LOW-END POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR W AND NW  
MISSOURI. GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES (~5-6 DEGC/KM) IN MANY CASES, THE  
RESULT WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT RAIN TO DRIZZLE IN MOST CASES THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT  
BACK NORTHWARD. MAIN RESULT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT  
RETURNING AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER COMPACT  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPEARS POISED TO RIDGE THE SW FLOW AND ONCE  
AGAIN MAY CLIP NW AREAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. BUT AGAIN,  
POOR OVERALL CONDITIONS LIMIT RESULTS TO LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. NBM  
CAME IN DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME (00Z-06Z TUE), BUT HAVE  
COLLABORATED THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH AFFECTED  
NEIGHBORS.  
 
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY  
BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A LARGE  
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER  
CONSEQUENCE HERE WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. STRONG CONSENSUS IN  
LOW TO MID 80S RETURNING FOR MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL... SOMETHING WE ARE ALL LIKELY USED TO AT THIS POINT.  
BIG CHANGES COME LATER FRIDAY THOUGH...  
 
BY FRIDAY PM AND INTO SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN  
CONUS TROUGH WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST AND LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS QUITE  
STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE AND WHAT  
YOU CAN GLEAM FROM THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES WHEN IT COMES TO  
THE BROAD PATTERN PROGRESSION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES  
AS YOU DIVE INTO THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS, WE WILL SEE A COLD  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED ACROSS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. ANY  
ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL NOT HAVE AS FAVORABLE OF AN  
ENVIRONMENT AS SATURDAY, WHEN MUCAPE VALUES UP TO AS MUCH AS  
2000 J/KG ARE DEPICTED WITH SUPPORTIVE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES  
(ALBEIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THAN ORTHOGONAL) YIELDING  
AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS  
BOLSTERED BY THE FAIRLY RARE SPC DAY 6 15% OUTLOOK. AT THIS  
POINT IN TIME, THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE LOOKS TO BE  
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO SGF AND LSX AREAS, BUT ANY SLOW DOWN  
OF THIS FRONTAL PROGRESSION MAY PULL THE AREA INTO PLAY. GIVEN  
THE PARENT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE UP INTO CANADA BY THIS  
POINT, IT IS POSSIBLE MODELS ARE TOO BULLISH IN FRONTAL  
PROGRESSION... SOMETHING TO MONITOR. BEHIND THE FRONT WE WORK  
BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND DRY  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK WINDS OUT OF  
THE NORTH AND CEILINGS AROUND 6-10KFT. INCREASED CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD BE MVFR. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS  
TIME ON EXACT LOCATION. THEREFORE, KEPT IN A BRIEF PROB30 GROUP  
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CURTIS  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
 
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