986
FXUS63 KEAX 240117
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
717 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- WINTER TEMPERATURES RETURN END OF THE WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW AN AREA OF DENSE FOG EXPANDING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OBSERVED AND MODEL MOISTURE
PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR FOG AND LIGHT WARM-AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE APPEARS FAVORABLE
ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM TO GO AHEAD WITH A SMALL ADVISORY.
STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE THREAT WILL PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
H5 RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SEVERAL SMALL
VORTICITY ENHANCEMENTS RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW. AREA OF DAVA HAS
BEEN OCCURRING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP AND IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF DAVA IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF REGION,
WHICH HAS DEVELOPED A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. UPSTREAM OVER THE
ROCKIES, A FEW DISTURBANCES HAVE DEVELOPED AT H7 AND H85, WITH DCVA
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT A MODEST SURFACE LOW,
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS KEPT SURFACE
FLOW SOUTHERLY, PROVIDING EFFICIENT TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM FRONT SITS SOUTHWARD OF
THE HWY. 50 CORRIDOR AS OF 21Z AS WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY, WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE PATTERN, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW FROM THE FRONT RANGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 700MB LEVEL.
THE LACK OF STRONGER STEERING FLOW FOR THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF REGION WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
ON WEDNESDAY, AND THIS WILL OCCUR IN AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING
THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT, THERE ARE
FEW POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS, MOISTURE DEPTH THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS INCREASED, WHICH IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HREF MAXIMUM QPF DOES HAVE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL CAMS THAT REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. THE OTHER OUTCOME, COULD BE ANOTHER FOGGY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER, IN THE 5-6KT RANGE, WHICH
MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN EXTRA SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. IF DRIZZLE
OCCURS, THIS WOULD HINDER FOG, THOUGH THE DRIZZLE ITSELF COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO HAVE PERIOD OF DRIZZLE,
THAT THEN ADDS MORE MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THAN LEADS TO
FOG AFTER THE DRIZZLE IS OVER. WE DID ASSESS THE NEED FOR A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE WERE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN 2 MILES THOUGH WERE UPWARDS OF 80
PERCENT. DUE TO THE SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AND WINDS REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 KTS, WILL HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR NOW. BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE THE WARM FRONT GETS
NORTH OF HWY. 36, THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO END. THE MAIN
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT, AND
DOES A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE GET TRAPPED IN SOME KIND OF
INVERSION LAYER. THIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAY RESULT IN THE WARM UP BEING LARGELY
DRIVEN BY WAA ONLY, WITH LIMITED INSOLATION. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER,
PROGGED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND PERHAPS NEAR DAILY RECORDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE,
WITH NBM AND OTHER ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FAVORING MID 60S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. PARTS OF MISSOURI ADJACENT TO THE IOWA STATE LINE MY
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 60 DEGREE MARK.
THURSDAY, PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC SHIFTS EASTWARD AND PROMOTES
H5 TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS, AND SENDS A FEW VORT MAXIMA
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY ATTEMPT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MAY STALL THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE
IN HOW THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE, ALONG WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT MAY MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD, AND ALSO THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INTO THE WARM SECTOR. OVERCAST CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY, JUST SEEING HOW MUCH MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS OCCURRED ALREADY
WITH THIS PATTERN DEVELOPING. THIS ADDS SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE
CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF HWY. 36
AND SOUTHWARD, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S (AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE IA-MO STATELINE MAY BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP). THE CHANCES
OF HITTING THE 70F DEGREE MARK THOUGH ARE MORE IN QUESTION, AND
PROBABILITIES HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED. AREAS WELL SOUTH OF HWY. 50
MAY STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF HITTING 70 DEGREES. REGARDLESS, STILL
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND STILL CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STATIONS SETTING THEIR DAILY RECORD.
HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY RELY LARGELY ON WAA, AS
INSOLATION COULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.
BY FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND BEGINS TO MOVE THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA, AND SLOWLY WORKS TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. 900MB TO 700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THIS
PATTERN FINALLY PROGRESSES, WHICH WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE BETTER KINEMATIC LIFT AVAILABLE,
THE MOISTURE CONTENT NEEDED TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE LACKING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FIRST BOUNDARY THAT
MOVES THROUGH WILL HAVE MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY AND
GRADIENT THAN TEMPERATURE, BUT THEN BY SUNDAY EVENING, STRONG CLOSED
LOW SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHES
A STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND POLAR AIRMASS THROUGH, THAT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW END OF DECEMBER NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG CONVERGENCE AS
THIS MOVES THROUGH, THE BETTER DEEP MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO BE
PROGGED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
DETECTABLE PRECIPITATION WEST OF HWY. 63 REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT,
BUT INCREASE AS YOU MOVE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES
REGION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
IFR CEILINGS PERSIST SOUTH OF I-70 THIS EVENING AND MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE. MCI/MKC SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT SOUTH OF I-70 IS POSSIBLE BY 9-10 PM BEFORE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SIGNAL FOR
IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS IS QUITE STRONG FOR KC METRO AIRPORTS WITH
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A
STEADY IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE MORNING AS DEEPER
SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO MIX THINGS A BIT BETTER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KMCI: 72/2021
KSTJ: 69/2021
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019
DECEMBER 26:
KMCI: 66/2008
KSTJ: 65/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 53/1936
KSTJ: 51/1936
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ043-044-053-
054.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-060.
UPDATE...JGG
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
CLIMATE...CMS
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