085
FXUS63 KEAX 090000
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE COMING
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THE 100S F ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN
INFLUENCE FROM POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES, NO
CHANGES TO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME. AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
U.S. HWY 50 SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- THERE REMAINS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS (GENERALLY LESS THAN
30 PERCENT) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
- SEASONABLE, COOLER, TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THROUGH 130 PM, A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY STATE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS ON IR AND
FOCUSED ALONG A SUPPORTIVE INSTABILITY AXIS AND PERSISTING MID-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO TRY AND DISSIPATE
THIS CLUSTER, BUT SO FAR IT'S BEEN HOLDING ON WITH MODEST MCS
MAINTENANCE CONDITIONS; IT HAD DECENT SHEAR/COLD POOL BALANCE,
BUT LATEST RADAR SCANS HAVE AN OUTFLOW WELL AHEAD NOW. TIMING-
WISE, WHATEVER CAN HOLD ON COULD MAKE NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 3 TO
4 PM CDT AND POTENTIALLY PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.
ELSEWHERE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
SLOWLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S F, WITH UPPER 80S TO 90 F EXPECTED
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS BY MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH PERIODIC PASSES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERNIGHT, AS BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING IOWA MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE MORE WIDESPREAD FOCUS FOR SUNDAY
WILL BE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S F ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY BREACH THE CENTURY MARK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 105 TO POTENTIALLY 110 F HI VALUES. AT THIS TIME, NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 50. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW ANY
MORNING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES,
SPECIFICALLY IF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THEY TRAVEL. AT THIS TIME, WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO UPGRADE OR
TRANSITION THE WATCH.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE MONDAY AS WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS, AMPLIFIED BY A RATHER STOUT H850 TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, AGAIN, AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING OFF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND COULD INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
EXTREME HEAT WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE
MODIFIED AS NEEDED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, SHIFTING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND A RESPITE
FROM THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ILL EXIST NEAR DAILY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MCS ACROSS SE NEBRASKA AND SW IOWA CONTINUES TO DECAY AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STJ AREA BETWEEN 8Z AND
12Z SUNDAY MORNING. 7 TO 10 KNOT SE WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT
IXD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ057-060.
SHORT TERM...KURTZ
LONG TERM...KURTZ
AVIATION...BMW
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