930
FXUS63 KEAX 121143
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
543 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR (70% TO 90%).
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 50+ KNOT WNW FLOW OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
BETWEEN BROAD TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST
DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF A 1028
MB HIGH HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, YIELDING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO THE MID 30S UNDER SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRANSLATING
NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER
TODAY, SO THE LOW END CHANCES FOR SOME SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN REMOVED. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS NE MISSOURI TO AS WARM
AS THE LOWER 60S TOWARD THE KC METRO.
BY TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD HELP SEND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THIS TROUGH FURTHER APPROACHES WITH THE H5 RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO CHIHUAHUA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS, USHERING IN BROADSCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO OUR
REGION. WHEREAS PREVIOUSLY SUBSEQUENT NEW MODEL OUTPUT WAS
TAKING THIS SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD
FURTHER SOUTH, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A NORTHERLY SHIFT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY FAR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
KC METRO, WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING FURTHER
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF OUR CWA.
POPS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO WHEN I
DID THE FORECAST THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH 75% TO 90% POPS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR (HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD THE OZARK
PLATEAU) AND 50% TO 75% POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
ACCORDINGLY, THE TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED, BUT THE GRADIENT OF MORE RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO LESS RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES STILL EXITS. THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE NBM GIVES THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 0.5" AS 25% AT KIRKSVILLE, 38% AT ST. JOSEPH, 60% AT
KANSAS CITY, 70% AT SEDALIA, AND 80% AT BUTLER. THE NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 50% OR GREATER FOR 1" OR MORE OF RAIN REMAINS
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 50. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI)
FOR THE 00Z RUN SHOWS 0.6 TO 0.8 FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70, INDICATING THE CHANCE FOR AN UNUSUAL RAINFALL EVENT,
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING. THE SHIFT OF TAILS FOR THIS SAME
LOCATION IS ABOVE ZERO, BUT BELOW ONE, SUGGESTING AT LEAST A FEW
OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TO EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF THE MODEL CLIMATE
DISTRIBUTION.
WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST, WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND IT. THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE AIDED BY THETA E ADVECTION OUT AHEAD
OF MID/UPPER TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MOST RECENT NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR
MAXT AT MCI ARE 65 AND 70 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY, FOR MONDAY,
AND 68 AND 75 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY, FOR TUESDAY (NOTE THAT THE
RECORD HIGH AT MCI FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS 74 DEGREES). IN ADDITION
TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, ENHANCED SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE PROBABLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 20 KFT STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SKIES SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY LIGHT
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY
WITHIN A FEW HOURS, REMAINING ONLY AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME
NEARLY CALM AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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