504  
FXUS63 KEAX 120503  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1203 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* SEVERE STORM THREAT TODAY/TONIGHT  
- TIMING: MID-AFTERNOON INTO EVENING  
- MAIN THREAT: STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS  
- SECONDARY THREATS: LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL, POSSIBLE TORNADO  
 
* UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT/HUMIDITY EASES AFTER TODAY  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
WITH PREVIOUS EVENING/NIGHT STORMS HAVING REMAINED ALMOST  
EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD OF THE AREA, THAT HAS ALLOWED  
ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI TO PRIME ITSELF FOR POTENTIAL  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PLACES THE SOME WHAT BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW  
OVER NW MISSOURI WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND  
TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST HAVING ENTERED FAR NW MISSOURI AND NE  
KANSAS. PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING  
NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HELPING FURTHER SUGGEST THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, MUCH OF  
MISSOURI, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO BREEZY  
(GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 MPH) WITH MANY AWOS/ASOS DEPICTING DEW  
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS INCLUDES SOME MOISTURE POOLING,  
DEW POINTS AROUND OR GREATER THAN 75, OVER SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN  
MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.  
 
SO, WHAT CAN/MIGHT WE EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY? GREAT  
QUESTION. GLAD YOU ASKED. IN A GENERAL SENSE WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE  
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE RESPECTIVE WARM AND COLD FRONTS AS  
THEY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE.  
 
THE FIRST AREA TO DISCUSS WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST  
MISSOURI. THIS AREA WILL VERY LIKELY BE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT,  
LEAVING MORE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. THIS TENDS TO REDUCE THE  
TORNADIC THREAT, BUT DOES NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE. POINT SOUNDS IN  
THAT AREA DO SUGGEST SOME OKAY CLOCKWISE CURVATURE, BUT THE  
MAGNITUDE/STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL, LET ALONE DEEP LAYER, SHEAR IS  
NOT SUBSTANTIAL. IN FACT, IT IS LARGELY MARGINAL WITH VALUES AROUND  
20-25KTS AND 30-35 KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM DEPTHS. AND THOSE  
VALUES COULD BE GENEROUS. LCLS TEND TO BE MARGINAL AS WELL. ENOUGH  
CAM RUNS HAVE SHOWN HINTS OF UH TRACKS NEAR THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER  
THOUGH TO COMPLETELY IGNORE THE THREAT. WHICH TOO IS WHY AFTER  
COORDINATION WITH SPC, NORTHERN TIER OF MISSOURI COUNTIES ARE IN A  
TORNADO WATCH. HAIL TOO WOULD BECOME A THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZATION  
OF STORMS, ALLOWING INCREASED GROWTH/RESIDENCE TIME. OTHERWISE, HIGH  
MELTING LEVELS, >14KFT, AND UNLIKELY PROLONGED RESIDENCE TIMES  
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE/DAMAGING HAIL. WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT  
WITH MARGINAL VENTING/UPPER STORM WINDS (MORE PRONE TO COLLAPSE ON  
ONESELF) AND AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR FOR AT LEAST INITIAL  
STORMS TO TAP INTO/ENHANCE DOWN DRAFTS. ANY ORGANIZED STORMS FURTHER  
ENHANCE THE WIND RISK. AS TIME PROGRESSES, STORMS SHOULD GROW  
UPSCALE TO MULTI-CELL/MCS AND TRANSITION THREAT TO ALMOST  
EXCLUSIVELY WIND.  
 
NEXT AREA TO DISCUS WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT, TO THE SW OF THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI AREA. THIS HAS BEEN A LITTLE HARDER  
TO PINPOINT INITIATION TIME AND EVOLUTION. AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON,  
THERE HAS BEEN A COUPLE STORMS INITIATING, BUT STRUGGLING TO RAPIDLY  
GROW. RAPID INTENSIFICATION/GROWTH "MAY" YET HOLD OFF UNTIL 3PM OR  
LATER. REGARDLESS, ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE  
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING >3000 J/KG MLCAPE  
AND MAY APPROACH 3500-4000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANY  
MOISTURE POOLING. VERY UNSTABLE AND THICK CAPE PROFILES WITH SOME OF  
THE PRESENT MID-LEVEL COOLING AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  
WIND PROFILES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST,  
TENDING TO BE MORE UNIFORM AND LESS OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO  
TAP INTO, BROADLY < 30KTS. TORNADIC AND HAIL THREAT IS  
GENERALLY VERY LOW HERE WITH WHAT SHOULD BE UNORGANIZED STORMS,  
PLUS POTENTIALLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT. CAN'T  
RULE OUT BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST  
OF UPDRAFTS. QLCS TOR THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY UNLIKELY AS WELL  
WITH FRONTAL ORIENTATION TENDING TO LINE UP MORE PARALLEL TO  
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS, BUT A BOWED SEGMENT COULD POSE A RISK AS  
THAT WOULD ALTER ORIENTATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE LINE/BOW.  
OTHERWISE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE  
AMPLE LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS. MAY VERY  
WELL YIELD MULTIPLE >70 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THESE STORMS,  
ESPECIALLY DEEP UPDRAFTS THAT BEGIN TO COLLAPSE WITHIN THIS  
ENVIRONMENT. PEAK WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY WANE WITH A TRANSITION  
TO LINEAR/QLCS, LARGELY DUE TO STEERING WIND PROFILES NOT AS  
ORTHOGONAL AS ONE WOULD WANT TO MAINTAIN A BALANCED COLD  
POOL/UDCZ. A HYDROLOGIC THREAT GETS INTRODUCED HERE AS WELL WITH  
MENTIONS OF THE MORE PARALLEL STEERING FLOW, IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGHLY ELEVATED PWATS, >2". CAMS  
(HREF/HRRR/ETC) HAVE PERSISTENTLY SHOWED POCKETS OF 3-4"+, WHICH  
MAY YIELD FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN ANY URBAN AREAS.  
RURAL, AGRICULTURE AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO ABSORB MORE AS THEY  
REMAIN NEAR PEAK GROWN PERIODS. DEPICTIONS HAVE NOT BEEN  
WIDESPREAD THOUGH, SUGGESTING MORE ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT  
VERSUS WIDESPREAD. WHILE NO SEVERE WATCH AS OF THIS WRITING,  
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THE ABOVE, THE SPC ENHANCED/SLIGHT RISK  
AND WPC ERO SLIGHT RISK AREAS ARE WELL DESERVED AND IN APPROPRIATE  
LOCATIONS. AS FRONT PROGRESSES SE THROUGH THE EVENING, SO TOO  
WILL THE SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS WORK OVER LOCAL AIR MASS AND  
LOSE DIURNAL SUPPORT.  
 
QUICKLY INTO THE FUTURE, THE GENERALLY SLOW/GRADUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE  
WILL GET A BOOST FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT  
BUILDS IN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
THIS SHOULD PUSH IT THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING, BROADLY  
LIMITING STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING  
SHOWERS NEAR/POST FRONTAL, AND TENDS TO ALIGN WITH SPC DAY 2  
MARGINAL THAT IS LARGELY IN THE LSX/SGF CWAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A  
MUCH COOLER AND MORE COMFORTABLE DAY THAN TODAY AND RECENT DAYS.  
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
DISCREPANCY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGS UNCERTAINTY  
IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES, BUT DO NOT LOOK  
STRONG/SEVERE IN NATURE EITHER WAY AS SYNOPTIC MODELS GRAPPLE WITH A  
WEAK MID-UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP OVER THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DRIFT NE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK.  
PREDOMINANT MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVERHEAD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH  
OF THE WEEK, ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES AND  
PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES. THIS RESULTS IN PROLONGED LOWER END  
POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WHICH SURELY WILL NOT PLAY OUT AS  
SUCH, BUT LIMITED CONFIDENCE TO MAKE ANY MEANINGFUL CHANGES. CAN  
GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCH BACK WARMER THROUGH THIS TIME  
FRAME TOO, BUT LARGELY SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS MAY EFFECT MKC AND IXD THRU 07Z  
OTRW...VFR CONDS WILL BE EXPECTED THRU 13Z WITH SCT CIGS AROUND  
4KFT. MODELS INDICATE A PD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BTN 13Z-17Z  
BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND SCT AFT 17Z BECMG VFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF  
THE NW/NNW BTN 5-10KTS THRU THE PD.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CURTIS  
AVIATION...73  
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