633
FXUS63 KEAX 252339
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
539 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. A FEW
AREAS MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGHS, BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE
INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
- A STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY. COLDER, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-
50%) ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF HWY-65.
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
LINGERING, PESKY FOG FROM THIS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. FOG WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE, MAINLY FOR THE KC METRO AND SOUTH, WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. CLEARING CAN BE SEEN ON GEOCOLOR VISIBLE SATELLITE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MO. TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT
HAVE WARMED MORE EFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE
RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW AREAS NEAR CENTRAL
MO REACHING THE LOW 70S.
A BROAD, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS MORNING. AT H700, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW THAT WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW EAST, OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. AS A
RESULT, WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM SOUTH (SOUTH OF I-70)
TO EAST-SOUTHEAST (NORTH OF I-70). WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVERAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONCOMING SHORTWAVE, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF CHRISTMAS RECORDS.
SWITCHING BACK TO THE FOG, IT WILL REMAIN PATCHY (FAIRLY DENSE AT
TIMES) FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE KC METRO TO RANDOLPH
COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
DENSE FOG WILL RETURN MORE WIDESPREAD PRIMARILY FOR AREAS PREVIOUSLY-
MENTIONED. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CAVEAT. TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OF TOMORROW MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE THE FOG SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE HRRR SUGGESTS PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, REORIENTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES, WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S (SIMILAR TO TODAY).
THESE WARM CONDITIONS LINGER INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCES (UP TO 60%) RETURN AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY AS A STOUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A
STOUT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN WITH AMPLE SHEAR (+50 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR), LIMITED INSTABILITY (UP TO 400 J/KG) WILL LIMIT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY
EXPECTED, BUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70, TOWARDS CENTRAL MO (OUR SOUTHEASTERN
FRINGES). BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXIST TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO TAPER OFF LATE
SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS SINK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. HIGHS FOR MONDAY REACH THE MID 20S TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING. LUCKILY, THESE BLISTERING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS WINDS REORIENT TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.
HEADING INTO MID-NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY, MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. AS ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
TIGHT GRADIENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. MORE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
AREAS LIKE KIXD AND KOJC WITH DENSE FOG MOVING INTO AREAS WITH
1/4 MILE FURTHER NORTH AT TAF SITES LIKE KMCI AND EXTENDING
EAST TOWARD KMBY. THIS DENSE FOG WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATER
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NORTH I-70 AND WILL SEE AREAS LIKE KMKC
BOUNCE AROUND A BIT FROM 1-3 MILES AND POTENTIALLY 3/4 MILES
BRIEFLY. WHILE KIXD SHOULD NOT SEE THE DENSE FOG, THERE WILL BE
2-4 MILES VIS BETWEEN 03-08Z. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL HELP
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND 08Z. WIND BETWEEN 08-12Z WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019
DECEMBER 26:
KMCI: 66/2008
KSTJ: 65/2008
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER/WFO EAX
CLIMATE...CMS
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