158
FXUS63 KEAX 100904
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
* SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW
* BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SEEN EARLY INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END
* WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO/THROUGH EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCUR/OVERLAP OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FEW STORMS THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT WERE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SEMI-
FAVORABLE WIND ENVIRONMENT AND YIELDED A HANDFUL OF MEASURED WIND
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MPH. THESE WERE MAINLY SEEN ACROSS
THE N/NW METRO AND AREAS TO THE W/NW FROM THERE BEFORE WEAKENING AS
THEY CONTINUED INTO/ACROSS THE KC METRO AREA. REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH CURRENT SAW MORE GENERIC THUNDER AND SHOWERS
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SAGGING LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES AND ANGLING LLJ.
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TENDS TO CONTINUE TO BE
MORE ZONAL IN NATURE, WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION (SEEN NICELY ON WV IMAGERY AMONG OTHER
PRODUCTS). ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS HEELS PUSHED THE
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR TODAY, LINGERING
WEAK CONVECTION/SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT MAY
CONTINUE IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDER TODAY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THAT DO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES NOTABLY COOLER AS WELL WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE UPPER
50S TO 60S. AS THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL HIGHS DEPART EASTWARD,
RESURGENCE IN WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, PRIMARILY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THE
BROAD/SLAB LIFT, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE EXPECTATION HERE. A
STRONGER GUST OF WIND ON OCCASION MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST OF
STORMS/CORES. THIS ACTIVITY EXITS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
SATURDAY, BUT SKIES TEND TO REMAIN OVERCAST. HIGHS DO REBOUND THOUGH
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS, BACK INTO THE 70S. WHILE A COUPLE/FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THIS POINT, OVERALL FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW WITH
THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
BY SUNDAY THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SEES MORE NOTICEABLE SHIFT,
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SECONDARY CUTOFF LOW
DIGS TOWARD AND ONTO THE MID-CALIFORNIA COAST. PLUME OF STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/GENERAL THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING EASTWARD. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ROUNDS AT
THIS POINT, SEVERE THREAT QUITE LOW GIVEN DEPICTED PROFILES AND
GENERAL SETUP. FLOODING THREAT LIKELY REMAINS LIMITED/LOCALIZED WITH
GENERAL PROGRESSIVE NATURE. HIGHS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 70S.
AS WE WORK INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, ASIDE FROM THE ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN, THERE TOO APPEARS TO BE BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORMS. THIS IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTED TO BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT (TEMP AND WIND PROFILES) AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. OPPORTUNITIES HERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNALED WITHIN
GUIDANCE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME AND AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING. FREQUENT READERS UNLIKELY TO BE SURPRISED BY THE
FOLLOWING... THAT DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT IN AT THIS
TIME FRAME AND GIVEN THE PRECEDING DAYS/ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OF
STORMS. BUT, TO DANGLE A CARROT SO TO SPEAK, DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS
CERTAINLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUPPORTIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR AT LEAST MODERATE CAPE. BUT AGAIN, MUCH TO TRANSPIRE AHEAD OF
THIS. TOUCHING AGAIN ON THE FLOODING THREAT, EVEN WITH ROUND 3 OR 4+
BY THIS POINT, THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO YET REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH PREDOMINANTLY PROGRESSIVE DEPICTIONS OR WAVES OF ACTIVITY
WITHOUT A BOUNDARY TO ANCHOR ON. THIS LOW THREAT TENDENCY APPEARS
BOLSTERED BY NBM 24HR 2"+ QPF PROBABILITIES TENDING TO BE <20% FOR
ANY TIME FRAME BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RISES IN RIVERS
AND PRIMING OF SOILS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN PLACE THOUGH, SHOULD AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVIER RAIN OR TRAINING STORMS EMERGE.
LASTLY, TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA REGIME REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S, BUT TEMPERED
BY THE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS WITH LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER/LIGHTNING
THROUGH 08Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR BEHIND LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. KSTJ AND KMCI SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR CIGS BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY, BUT KIXD AND KMKC WILL
LIKELY HOVER RIGHT AT IFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...MACKO
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