616
FXUS63 KEAX 271744
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ENGULFS THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AND
REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICIES INCREASE
TO 100-110 AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH
RELIEF. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. AN SPS IS OUT TILL 13Z THIS MORNING.
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD ALOFT BEGINNING TODAY. AS A RESULT,
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE. LOOKING TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW 80S IN OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL BEGIN TO SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-104F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PUSH EAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
INCREASE CAPE AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS INCLUDE: 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30KTS, SBCAPE 1800-2000J/KG, AND DCAPE AROUND 800-
900J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
CURRENT TIMING IS A WINDOW FROM 18-3Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND
A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN, WHICH WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY, BUT
TEMPERATURES WARMER OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, IMPRESSIVE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. HIGHER HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE DEW POINTS, LEADING TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. NBM AND
LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW 60-90% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 95F MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT,
AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S.
CURRENTLY, NBM AND LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A 70-90% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 75F AND A 50-70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 77F FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DUE TO THE DURATION OF THIS HEAT WAVE, HEAT INDICES FORECASTED, LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED, AND MODERATE TO EXTREME HEATRISK
FORECASTED, HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AT THIS
TIME. LIKELIHOOD OF ISSUING A WARNING AT THIS TIME IS HIGH. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGH GIVEN STRONG ENSEMBLE
SIGNALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE METRO AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE LEADING TO A LOW LIGHTNING THREAT. AFTER
THESE SHOWERS CLEAR THE AREA WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS, ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCLEAR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS WITH THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WE
WILL HAVE A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX AFTER SUNRISE LEADING TO
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
SHORT TERM...WILSON
LONG TERM...WILSON
AVIATION...BRITT
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