551
FXUS63 KEAX 272310
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO WITH ALL HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND TORNADOES) POSSIBLE. NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
- TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE
REGION.
- REST OF THE WEEK, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THIS
FRONT. MEANWHILE, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR 80F WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY MORNING STORMS WAS LAID OUT WEST-TO-EAST SOUTH OF I-70.
THE WARM, UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE, BUT
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI EXTENDING TOWARD ILLINOIS. HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS STORM DEVELOP IN THIS REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH UPDRAFT HELICITY SWATHS SUPPORTING THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT THESE STORMS WILL INDEED BE
SUPERCELLS.
ONE QUESTION REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER IS HOW LONG THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE CONGEALING INTO A LINE. IF THIS
HAPPENS MORE QUICKLY, THEN THE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADO THREAT
TRANSITIONS MORE TO WIND AND WEAK TORNADOES. REGARDLESS, THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS DEVELOP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO OUR
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIERS OF COUNTIES
FROM NOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LATER THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT, THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE WILL NOT PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER OR
HEAVY RAIN. INSTEAD, EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SOME RAIN ACROSS
THE MO/AR LINE, BUT THIS WILL LACK INSTABILITY, AND THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER. ON WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, MEANING LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES (10 TO 20
PERCENT) FOR RAIN, BUT ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF LOW/ FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD TREND
TO LOW VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AND DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ011>014-020>024-
028>030-037.
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-102>105.
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CDB
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