848
FXUS63 KEAX 161715
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..18Z AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW IS TAPERING OFF, BUT ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME QUITE SLICK. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- HIGH WINDS CONTINUE, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON15, HOWEVER.
- BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AS COLD AS 15 BELOW ZERO
NEAR THE IOWA BORDER TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE KC
METRO.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON TUESDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW HAS MADE IT AS FAR EAST AS SOUTH OF CHICAGO, WITH THE
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND EVENTUALLY INTO EAST TEXAS. SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WRAPAROUND OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND IS
LEADING TO INCREASED ISSUES ON THE ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
TO 50 MPH, LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS STILL
FALLING. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
OVERNIGHT, WITH MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE TEENS. ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME ICY, AND WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL, ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN A BIT BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GUSTS UP TO
30 TO 35 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING
FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW ZERO CWA WIDE, WITH WIND CHILLS AS
COLD AS NEGATIVE 15 TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A CLOSED ~512 DAM H5 LOW IS PROGGED TO BE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH A VERY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. OUR CWA SHOULD BE
LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND
AMPLE CAA CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR MONDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NE MISSOURI TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. RH IS LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30
MPH, THIS IN THEORY WOULD YIELD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
BUT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW COVER,
THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TEMPERED.
MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY, WARMING TEMPS INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NE MISSOURI,
WITH THE MOST RECENT NBM GIVING A 60% CHANCE FOR KIRKSVILLE TO
RECEIVE AT LEAST A TRACE OF SNOWFALL (13% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1").
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NW ILLINOIS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, WARMING TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. BY THURSDAY, MODELS SUGGEST A
594 DAM H5 HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH
ATTENDANT STOUT RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL SEND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS EVEN HIGHER ON THURSDAY,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS RIDGE
REMAINS LOCKED INTO PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, AROUND 00Z AND BECOME VARIABLE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILLIAMS
LONG TERM...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...CDB
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