005
FXUS63 KEAX 011936
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TODAY, WITH COOLER/DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCES (40-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.
- TEMPERATURES RISING BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADUAL EXIT
OF A SURFACE CYCLONE OFF TO THE EAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THIS SURFACE CYCLONE HAS
REMAINED STACKED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
MARGINAL DCVA SHIFTING THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF TOWARDS
THE EAST AT A SNAIL'S PACE. AS A RESULT, CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MO, WITH SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
ADVECTION PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP IS HELPING TO DAMPEN TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MO, WHERE CLOUD COVER IS PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS FURTHER
NORTH/WEST WHERE THE SUN HAS EMERGED THROUGH THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN MORE NEAR THE 80S. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS
ALSO PROMPTED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
SLOWLY RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONGSIDE AMBIENT WINDS AROUND
15-20 MPH, KEEPING THE DAY PLEASANT ALBEIT A LITTLE WINDY.
AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE THEIR SLOW
RETREAT OFF TOWARDS THE EAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE WEST. AS THIS
OCCURS, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL SLOW UNDER A LESSENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTHERN MO TONIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SETTING UP,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS STILL REMAINING HIGHER OVERNIGHT, THIS POTENTIAL
WOULD REMAIN PATCHY AT BEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN PLEASANT WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR UNDER
A NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN, BEFORE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH
EARLY MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID/HIGH
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE GETTING PUSHED
OFF TOWARDS THE EAST BY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE HUDSON BAY, PLACING THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN, POPS
INCREASE BY MIDWEEK FROM SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN MO FOR THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD
(40-60%) BY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
SOME FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN EXACT HAZARDS. WITH
THIS CONSISTENT SIGNAL, FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM FOR GREATER CONFIDENCE IN EVOLVING THREATS. BEYOND
THIS, GREATER DEVIATION IN SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK REGARDING FUTURE POPS. UNDER CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO RISE INTO THE
HIGH 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
SEEING RESIDUAL MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS IN A LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM
KSTJ TO KIXD, BUT HAVE NOTED GRADUAL SCATTERING WITHIN THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO. PREVAILING SCT030 IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS IN MIND. ALSO OBSERVING GUSTS BETWEEN
25-30 KTS FROM THE NNW ACROSS TERMINALS, AND EXPECTING THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AS DIURNAL MIXING CEASES. ELSE,
ANTICIPATING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A
SUSTAINED NNW WIND AROUND 5-10 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG
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