225
FXUS63 KEAX 191703
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1203 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY
- RECORDS MOST LIKELY TO FALL ON FRIDAY
* SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REGRESS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST GENERALLY SPEAKING. THE MAIN WEATHER
DRIVER CONTINUES TO BE THE HIGHLY SEASONALLY ANOMALOUS (594+ DAM)
500MB RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PAINSTAKINGLY
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXERTING INCREASING INFLUENCE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS YIELDS CONTINUED QUIET OVERALL
CONDITIONS (ANY NOTABLE SHORTWAVES DISPLACED NORTHWARD),
PREDOMINANTLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW, AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY, BUT DOES NOT LOOK
COMPLETELY IN LINE WITH PEAK 850MB TEMP TIMING. BASICALLY, THE PEAK
850MB RIDGE COMES IN AFTER PEAK HEATING SATURDAY, WITH CURRENT 00Z
GUIDANCE. IF LOOKING FOR SOMETHING TO WATCH, THAT MAY BE IT. IF
850MB RIDGE COMES IN A BIT SOONER, LOW 90S DEG F CERTAINLY IN THE
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE, GIVEN DEPICTED 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS
DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA,
EXISTING FORECAST IN UPPER 80S SITS WELL. NOTE, THE FORECAST TREND
FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY HAS BEEN A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE
LAST HANDFUL OF FORECAST CYCLES. RECORDS REMAIN MOST LIKELY TO FALL
ON FRIDAY WHERE THERE IS SOME "LOW HANGING FRUIT" WITHIN THE CLIMATE
RECORD, BUT ALSO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY IF THE
FORECAST TREND CONTINUES TO BE WARMER. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY, IT IS
POSSIBLE WE SEE SOME NOMINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN AREAS AS WELL GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
FORECAST RH VALUES INTO THE 20S PERCENT. WORKING AGAINST THAT NOTION
THOUGH ARE FORECAST LIGHTER WINDS PRIOR TO AND ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
RECENT WETTING RAINS (QUESTIONABLE DRYING OF LONGER-TERM FUELS), AND
GREEN UP.
BY LATER SATURDAY, NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES BEGIN FLATTEN OUT
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE PRIMARY AFFECT THIS WILL HAVE IS
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK. DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE TENDS TO DIVERGE
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE LARGELY REMAINS
APPEARS THE SAME... PERIODIC NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WITH
LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN AN OTHERWISE ABUNDANTLY
DRY AIRMASS. ASIDE FROM MONDAY, TEMPERATURES TOO LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS RISING BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AND WINDS
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page