741
FXUS63 KEAX 021959
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
159 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS, THOUGH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY SURFACE-LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS HELPING
TO KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION AND A LACK OF DEEPER
FORCING HAS HELPED TO ERODE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, TONIGHT, ANOTHER
WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD AND AS DEEPER ASCENT DEVELOPS,
NOTABLE FROM ~285K THROUGH 305K, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP,
WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE US54 TO US50
CORRIDOR. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BEFORE
STALLING WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP.
FURTHER NORTH, AND AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ARE ABLE TO BUILD
MORE INSTABILITY AND WOULD HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS. A MORE SOUTHERLY STALL OF THE FRONT AND WE'LL SEE WEAKER
INSTABILITY, WITH LESS OF CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOW
THAT ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND INHIBITION MAY NOT
ERODE ENOUGH UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE
OF THE STORMS, HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. RAINFALL LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION AND AS A
RESULT, THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, FROM ROUGHLY BUTLER, MO TO
MOBERLY, MO. THURSDAY, WITH THE SHORTWAVE NOW EAST OF THE AREA,
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FRIDAY, WHERE WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM THE SPC. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN US. WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN US, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND HELP TRANSPORT
AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY, MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP, THOUGH
WILL BE INHIBITED BY A WEAK CAP. THUS, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR WEST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. AS THAT FORCING TRACKS
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS, OUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
INCREASE. INSTABILITY WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 06Z SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS PRESENT TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD WITH
TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE'LL SEE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST AS WELL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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