768
FXUS63 KEAX 261724
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1124 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE
WITH WINDS POTENTIAL GUSTING 20-30 MPH.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
INCLUDES A 25-45% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF FREEZING RAIN,
AND A 20-55% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW, WITH THE LATEST
SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING SCOURED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER EASTERN
KS AND WESTERN MO, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST.
THOSE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AS WELL.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
STILL ARE EXPECTED AS THOSE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH HOW LOW DEWPOINTS MAY FALL IN THIS FLOW REGIME. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30 DEGREE RANGE. OTHER MODELS,
WHICH HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW DROP
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE
IN HOW LOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS. THAT SAID, LOOKING AT THE
GEFS HDWI FOR FRIDAY, MOST MEMBERS ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST HAVE MANY MEMBERS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS
COULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, OR TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VARIABILITY WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. AND LOOKING OVER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 36. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A NEARLY 30
DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY BETWEEN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. SO THE FORECAST
HIGH OF 66 FOR THE KC AREA COULD VARY SIGNIFICANTLY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER REMAINS,
WITH A WINTRY MIX STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST. IT SEEMS MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER, PUSHING THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION AREA SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THAT SAID, THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEEING ANY FREEZING HAS INCREASED FROM NORTHEASTERN
KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO, WITH PROBABILITIES OF 25-45% FOR AT LEAST
0.01". ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS 5-10% FOR AT LEAST 0.25" OF
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH, DEEPER INTO THE COLD
AIR, THE PROBABILITY FOR SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED, WITH A 20-55%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE
NATURALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL RESIDE. BUT EVEN ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY
AREA, PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED AND IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS ROUGHLY 35-45% FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
LIGHT NW WINDS, LESS THAN 10 KT, ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARD THE S/SW TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS
WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. BY THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...WFO LMK
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