044
FXUS63 KEAX 160900
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE KC AREA RANGE FROM 42 TODAY TO 40 FOR
12/23.
- RAIN CHANCES (~20-40%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS A
50% - 70% PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH
THURSDAY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY - WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN BROAD UPPER RIDGING.
MONDAY'S HIGHS OVERPERFORMED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO FORECAST HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER. BASED ON
COMPARING 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES WITH YESTERDAY (~133.2 DAM) TO
TODAY (~135.2 DAM), IT'S POSSIBLE A MID-50S FORECAST MAY BE TOO COOL
BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SIMILAR THICKNESS VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY SUGGEST
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO TODAY AND THE NEW FORECAST ONLY INCREASES
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
OVER THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AND WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME POSITIVE
BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE LATEST
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK BRINGS GENERAL THUNDER INTO OUR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH TRACKS BASED ON THE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY NOTED WITH MODEL FORECAST MUCAPE AND ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. WITH STRONG SHEAR PRESENT, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER CAPE AND/OR IF STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT CAN LEAD
TO STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PV ANOMALY MOVES OVERHEAD,
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE BECOMING MORE PROBABLE. MODELS SHOW A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GRADIENT OF
ABOUT 30-50 UBAR/KM. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHES 50
UBAR/KM, THAT MAY LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 30 MPH.
STEEP LAPSE RATES TO NEARLY 10K FEET WILL ENABLE STRONG WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS SEEM TO
BE AS THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE MORE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5K
FT LATER IN THE DAY AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THAT LAYER ARE NEAR
45-50KTS. HAVE INCREASED SURFACE WINDS TO THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE AND BLENDED IN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WIND
GUSTS. THIS GETS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 40
KTS. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
FORECAST HIGHS ARE STILL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S, WHICH IS STILL
5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL THIS POINTS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AND OUR FORECAST
IS PUSHING 60 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY (>85%) THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO NORTHERN MO THAT COULD AFFECT THE STJ
TERMINAL. HREF SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING, ABOUT
10% THROUGH 12Z AND THEN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH 18Z. FOR NOW WILL
FORECAST THE MORE LIKELY VFR CONDITIONS AND AMEND AS NEEDED IF/WHEN
THERE DEVELOPMENT NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS LOOK LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5-10 KTS, WITH SOME INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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