431
FXUS63 KEAX 252314
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 3PM, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WAS
LOCATED FROM KIRKSVILLE TO BISECTING THE MIDDLE OF THE KC METRO
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 80S. STILL WITH THE WARM WEATHER, MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXIST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA,
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL. WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY OCCURRING POST-FRONTAL. UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 60S WITHIN A FEW HOURS,
WITH A WIND SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE EVENING,
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS/NEAR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING INSENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. DETAILS TO THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING WILL BE
REFINED AS MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY/CONFIDENCE INCREASES, BUT
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO HAVE THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING READINGS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA BECOMES MORE FIRMLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018
MVFR CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HANG MUCH, AND WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND SCATTER OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
WINDS START EASING UP.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...CUTTER
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