662  
FXUS63 KEAX 200908  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
308 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION, IN THE WAKE OF  
THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW  
IS A STRUNG OUT VORTICITY MAX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW AS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
THE REGION. HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST TODAY TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WHILE POPS ARE HIGH, AMOUNTS WILL BE  
VERY LOW, SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT AND PERHAPS HALF  
AN INCH OF SNOW.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT THOUGH, UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ON MONDAY FROM THE  
BITTER COLD OF TODAY. THAT RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA  
WITH A PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN NON-  
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT,  
AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY. THE TRICK TO THIS PART OF THE  
FORECAST IS WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS RELATIVE TO WHERE THE  
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE  
SOME OVERLAP IN NORTHERN MO TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SURFACE LOW  
TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY  
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, WITH NOW CLOUD ICE, IT LOOKS LIKE  
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WHERE TEMPERATURES  
ARE BELOW FREEZING, THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING  
DRIZZLE. ADDITIONALLY, WITH HOW COLD THE AIR IS TODAY, THERE MAY  
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING EVEN AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE WARMS  
ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. SO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL  
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ACROSS NORTHERN MO FROM EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM  
INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S. LATER IN THE DAY, AS THE UPPER  
WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH  
THROUGH THE REGION, AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO FALL.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO CLOUD ICE UNTIL  
THE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES AROUND 3000 FEET COOL ENOUGH TO  
INTRODUCE ICE. SO AS THE SYSTEM IS EXITING, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER  
ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW.  
 
LATER IN THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUE TO LOOK BRUTAL COLD. WHILE THERE IS VARIABILITY WITH THE  
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ALL  
HAVE A BITTERLY COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  
LOWS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A REAL CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW  
ZERO. AND IF THE MODELS VERIFY, PERHAPS COLDER THAN -10. GIVEN  
THIS, HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. BUT GIVEN THE  
VARIABILITY, HESITATE TO GO FULL BORE TOWARDS ANY GIVEN SOLUTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A MID CLOUD  
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME. A NORTHERLY  
WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WHEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SE.  
ANOTHER SHIFT WILL OCCUR IN AFTERNOON BACK TO THE EAST, BUT WINDS  
WILL STAY LIGHT AND BELOW 10KTS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...BARHAM  
 
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