989
FXUS63 KEAX 090001
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY POINTS:
* DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AS LIFT INCREASES THIS
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY 0.1-0.3" WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN MISSOURI.
* THE SUN RETURNS FOR A BRIEF APPEARANCE TOMORROW.
* MORE LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY.
* STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 290-300K SURFACES IS INCREASING
RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN TO DRY BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE SOME
STRATUS LINGER CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI, OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THIN LAYER OF STRATO-CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY, AND
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT MID LEVELS REMAIN
STUBBORNLY DRY. THEREFORE, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY
LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. AS THE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH,
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT FOR A DECEMBER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS STRONG FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI. ON TUESDAY, MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ABOVE
850 MB. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW, SPC OUTLOOKS ARE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER, BUT STILL IS A CHANCE THIS FAR NORTH.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
LOWERED CIGS AND REDUCED VIS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SIX
HOURS AS -RA AND BR CONTINUE. VIS FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN 1-4SM ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THIS TIME FRAME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 1000FT.
CIGS LIFT AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS MORNING RETURNING TO MVFR AFTER
SUN RISE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME CONDITIONS AS
GUIDANCE IS STILL PRODUCING DIVERSE SOLUTIONS. ONE ARC PROPOSES
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER BREAKS UP TO
MORE SCT SKY COVERAGE. MUCH OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...PESEL
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