523
FXUS63 KEAX 251127
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST WEDNESDAY EVENING/ OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE AFFECT FAR NORTHERN INTO NORTHEASTERN MO.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY
LOOKS ESPECIALLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE WITH WINDS
POTENTIAL GUSTING 20-30 MPH.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
INCLUDES A 20-35% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF FREEZING RAIN,
AND A 30-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW, WITH THE LATEST
SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A FAST-MOVING, POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT MT LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT SNOW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MO. AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXITING, THERE IS BRIEF PERIOD WHERE CLOUD IS LOST,
POTENTIALLY BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL
SEEMS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME, WITH AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY BEING EXTREMELY LIMITED, BUT NOT ZERO.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM
47 FOR WEDNESDAY TO 50 FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY FRIDAY, HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED, ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO COME WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. WHILE WINDS DON'T LOOK AS HIGH
AS THEY DID ON TUESDAY, WINDS DO LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM RH
VALUES, WHICH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. INDEED, THE LATEST HOT, DRY, WINDY, INDEX
SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
WITH SEVERAL NEAR OR ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES START TO TREND COOLER SATURDAY AS A FRONT STARTS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THAT FRONT IS STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY SHOWS UP IN THE LARGE VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS ROUGHLY A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. THIS JUMPS TO ROUGHLY 25-30 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 10TH AND
90TH PERCENTILES, AND A WHOPPING 40+ DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE AND THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. SO THE CURRENT FORECAST
OF NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR THE KC AREA, HAS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY OF
BEING MUCH COLDER (OR WARMER) DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST SPREAD IS LOWER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOST LIKELY
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.
THAT STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL
WINTRY WEATHER FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD A LAYER OF WARM AIR
OVER THE LOWER-LEVEL COLD AIR. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LAYER OF WARM AIR, SETTING UP SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AT THE SURFACE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WILL
ADVECT COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. THIS SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
A WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY MESSAGES,
THERE IS A 20-35% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF FREEZING RAIN. BUT
THERE ARE ALSO LOW PROBABILITIES (5-10% SHOWING UP FOR AMOUNTS OF AT
LEAST 0.25". SO THIS IS A SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY TO SEE
HOW THESE VARIOUS ELEMENTS COMBINE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
GENERALLY SPEAKING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
E/ESE WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN/-RA CHANCES REMAIN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AFTER 00Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO REMAINS LIMITED IN COVERAGE. AS SUCH, HAVE
CONTINUED WITH PROB30S ACROSS THE TAF SITES ROUGHLY IN THE 01Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAMES. REGARDLESS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD INTO
IOWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIT BY/AFTER 06Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CURTIS
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