962
FXUS63 KEAX 110722
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (60-80%) RETURN TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MERGING INTO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL
FURTHER AMPLIFY THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
SD WHERE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRESENT OVER THE GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ISAIAS, LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
LOW IN SD AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH COMBINED WITH
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WHICH WILL APPROACH, IF NOT BREAK,
RECORD HIGHS. ALSO OF NOTE, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW,
INCITING LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN NORTHEAST CO. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS NE THROUGH THE DAY, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. ORDINARILY,
THIS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR,
AND WHILE IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO,
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 35-45%, SO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET. HOWEVER, THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, IT WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS NE AND IA MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO NORTHERN MO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT
BEFORE STALLING WILL DICTATE HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS PUSHING TOWARDS OR ABOVE 90F.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (25-35%) WILL ADD ANOTHER WRINKLE IN HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND LIFT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENTLY, MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
BEFORE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE (60-80%) TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 30 KT LLJ NOSES INTO THE
AREA. WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE IN 2-2.25" RANGE, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ON THE TABLE, THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS SETUP
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WEDNESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE REGARDING THE HANDLING OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE
CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND ENS HOLD THE FRONT AROUND THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THIS DISCREPANCY IS IMPORTANT, AS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, CREATING A LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR SETUP FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STORMS IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
FRONT, WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND GEFS LIFTING THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH INTO THE FLOW AND PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ENS GENERATE A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS
OF WHICH SOLUTION YOU CHOSE TO LOOK AT, WITH THE INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOUTH WINDS OF
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME LESS
GUSTY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/
EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CDB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page