662
FXUS63 KEAX 200908
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION, IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
IS A STRUNG OUT VORTICITY MAX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW AS THE VORTICITY MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WHILE POPS ARE HIGH, AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LOW, SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT AND PERHAPS HALF
AN INCH OF SNOW.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT THOUGH, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE ON MONDAY FROM THE
BITTER COLD OF TODAY. THAT RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY. THE TRICK TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS RELATIVE TO WHERE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME OVERLAP IN NORTHERN MO TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ONLY
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, WITH NOW CLOUD ICE, IT LOOKS LIKE
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING, THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ADDITIONALLY, WITH HOW COLD THE AIR IS TODAY, THERE MAY
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING EVEN AFTER THE AIR TEMPERATURE WARMS
ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. SO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE ACROSS NORTHERN MO FROM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S. LATER IN THE DAY, AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION, AND TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO FALL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO CLOUD ICE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES AROUND 3000 FEET COOL ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE ICE. SO AS THE SYSTEM IS EXITING, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW.
LATER IN THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO LOOK BRUTAL COLD. WHILE THERE IS VARIABILITY WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ALL
HAVE A BITTERLY COLD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
LOWS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A REAL CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW
ZERO. AND IF THE MODELS VERIFY, PERHAPS COLDER THAN -10. GIVEN
THIS, HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. BUT GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY, HESITATE TO GO FULL BORE TOWARDS ANY GIVEN SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A MID CLOUD
PUSHING INTO THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME. A NORTHERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WHEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SE.
ANOTHER SHIFT WILL OCCUR IN AFTERNOON BACK TO THE EAST, BUT WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND BELOW 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BARHAM
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