158
FXUS63 KEAX 282319
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
619 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GREATER CHANCES
(50-70%) TOWARDS SOUTHERN MO.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND QUIETER CONDITIONS OVERALL, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE STORMS
PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL MO (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70)
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
SOUTH OF I-70 (50-70%), IN THE SAME LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE
REMAINING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL OCCURRING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN WHAT HAS
BECOME THE STATUS QUO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEK WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S AREAWIDE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING
WINDS NORTHERLY AND LIGHT (5-10 MPH) THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, WHICH OPENS THE DOOR FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 40S TONIGHT.
ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING, QUIETER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND COMES THURSDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE SOUTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PRODUCING LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-25%) ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO DRIVE LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MO, WHICH
WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 60S WITH ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S.
LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES WILL BRING A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN TO
THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN, HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THESE SHORTWAVES, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BKN CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO FEW LATER THIS EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK UP TO SCT LATE WEDNESDAY,
BUT VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...MACKO
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