632
FXUS63 KEAX 111148
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY (30 TO 50%), ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KNOT WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION BETWEEN LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO OUR WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A 1029 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, SLOWLY
SLIDING TO THE EAST TOWARD FAR NW MISSOURI. 3 AM TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
ISOLATED CIRRUS TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD FROM NW
MISSOURI THIS MORNING TO ST. LOUIS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING
OVERHEAD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
BY TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, TURNING SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST, TRANSLATING WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NW
MEXICO, BRINGING MID LEVEL RIDGING EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA OUT
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THIS TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO SW TEXAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER AND SOUTHERN MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, INITIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE KC METRO (30%), WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AND PUSHING
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (UP TO 50%
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR). MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GIVES
ONLY AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL TO EXCEED 0.5"
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD THE OZARK PLATEAU
WHILE THE GEFS GIVES A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED
0.5" FOR THESE SAME AREAS AND A 30% CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AS
INTERSTATE 70. THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE BULLISH ON
THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5" OF RAIN OR MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. ULTIMATELY, THE NBM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF FOR NOW, SHOWING ONLY A 40% PROBABILITY
FOR TOTAL RAINFALL TO EXCEED 0.1" AT MCI AND THE PROBABILITY OF
RAIN EXCEEDING 1" DROPPING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 10%. RAIN
SHOULD EXIT WEST TO EAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST, WITH RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND IT. THE MOST
RECENT NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR MAXT AT MCI ARE 63 AND
72 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY, FOR MONDAY, AND 70 AND 77 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY, FOR TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC MAXT
FOR TUESDAY IS ONLY 67 DEGREES (NOTE THAT THE RECORD HIGH AT
MCI FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS 74 DEGREES).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS, ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE FROM NW MISSOURI THIS MORNING
TOWARD ST. LOUIS BY LATE TONIGHT, YIELDING VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY,
BUT REMAINING GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS, BY TONIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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