820  
FXUS63 KEAX 190811  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
311 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
 
THE DANGEROUS HEAT THE REGION HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, USED PERSISTENCE FOR DEWPOINTS WITH  
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES. THIS COMBINATION PRODUCES HEAT  
INDEX VALUES IN THE 110 TO 115 RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI  
AND EASTERN KANSAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  
IT'S NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT SOME RELIEF WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW A  
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE  
ENOUGH SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN  
PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY  
PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT AND CONFINED  
TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN  
ZONES. INCREASED QPF FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL GIVEN THE GOOD  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, QUIET  
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S  
WITH MORE SUBDUED DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY, INCREASING  
TO AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PREVAILING  
PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET HAVE ALLOWED  
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN  
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-057-  
060-102>105.  
 
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-  
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...PPIETRYCHA  
 
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