268
FXUS63 KEAX 241108
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
TODAY:
OVERNIGHT, A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH ACROSS MID MISSOURI. STORMS
HAVE STAYED FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST STAYING
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR IN A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE MORNING STORMS, BUT
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT BY MID MORNING AND WE
WILL SEE SOME DRY TIME THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EXPECT TO SEE SOME
CLEARING IN THE WARM SECTOR. AMPLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, INCREASING
CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY HEALTHY SHEAR APPROACHING 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EAST, WHERE EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL IGNITE ALONG IT. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF I-35 AND WELL EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY
METRO. MOST WILL STAY DRY, BUT THOSE IN OUR FAR WESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND
MERGE INTO A LINE WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.
BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN STAY MORE DISCRETE WILL HAVE A SHORT
LIVED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNSET AND WILL
TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS IN THOSE AREA. BUT FOR US, EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
THE WORKWEEK:
THINGS WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
MONDAY MORNING LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S AGAIN FOR THOSE IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT MID 40S TO
START THE DAY MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN MONDAY, BUT ITS GOING
TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF WARM
UP INTO THE 60S AGAIN. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH SWINGS THOROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO HALLOWEEN WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK TO
THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING, BUT DRY TIME WILL RETURN FOR MID DAY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SOME SCATTERING OUT IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB
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