441  
FXUS63 KEAX 140734  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
234 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS SCATTERED STORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.  
 
A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  
MIDWEST. THIS HAS KEPT OUR REGION UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME  
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN  
THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE  
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDDAY. AT PRESENT, TWO MCSS  
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE WESTERN ONE, OVER NORTH  
DAKOTA, IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE. THROUGH SUNRISE,  
EXPECT BOTH MCSS TO BE ONGOING, WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SETTING UP  
WITHIN THE LARGER WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT, MODEST WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL TRANSPORT LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE  
WOODS BY THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION  
MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS  
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY  
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WHEN PAIRED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE  
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL,  
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING  
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SURGES AND  
A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.  
 
THE WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER QUIET, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED  
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE  
MID 80S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND  
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE  
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR  
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. HAZE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY  
SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE LATE MORNING  
HOURS. DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KURTZ  
AVIATION...KLAUS  
 
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