832  
FXUS63 KEAX 230853  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
353 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT WET,  
WHICH MIGHT EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER,  
THOUGH OTHERWISE IT IS LOOKING TO BE A NICE EARLY SPRING TIME RAIN  
FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SPINNING ITS WAY EAST  
THROUGH COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE  
SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS  
HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS, FROM  
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS  
MORNING. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING  
THROUGH KANSAS TODAY, WITH THE CENTROID OF THE LOW LIFTING INTO  
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, BEFORE GETTING SWEPT EAST AND TORN APART SUNDAY  
BY A TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT OF THIS  
EXPECTED EVOLUTION, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVING THE RAIN EARLY  
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN  
MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE; THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST  
THE WEAKENING MORNING LOW LEVEL JET, THUS RESULTING IN HIT OR MISS  
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THIS AFTERNOON  
CAM'S AND OPERATIONAL MODELS, LIKE THE NAM AND RAP, ARE  
ADVERTISING A BIT OF RE-INVIGORATION IN THE STORMY ACTIVITY;  
WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AS SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY, THE  
INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE  
QPF. FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WE EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS TO  
SHIFT NORTH A BIT AS THE CENTER OF SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST  
ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER, LIKELY DRAGGING MORE SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH, HAVE TWEAKED QPF VALUES  
UP ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM  
NORTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER FOR THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS LEAVES WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM  
A THIRD OF AN INCH TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FROM NORTHWEST  
MISSOURI SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. AND, WHILE AREAS AWAY  
FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS KIND OF RAIN,  
LOCATIONS NEAR THE FLOODING MISSOURI RIVER MAY QUICKLY FLOOD AS A  
RESULT, AND WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
FOR THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL START A LITTLE COOL IN THE WAKE  
OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE  
WORK WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A  
LARGE 500MB WEAKNESS THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE WEST COAST BY MID-  
WORK WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH  
WILL HELP LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL ALSO COME WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR  
STORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING  
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXISTING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS  
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY, THOUGH BY 20 TO 21Z, MVFR  
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT TOWARD  
SUNSET BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CUTTER  
AVIATION...WELSH  
 
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