989  
FXUS63 KEAX 090001  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
601 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AS LIFT INCREASES THIS  
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,  
GENERALLY 0.1-0.3" WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN MISSOURI.  
 
* THE SUN RETURNS FOR A BRIEF APPEARANCE TOMORROW.  
 
* MORE LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY.  
 
* STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. POTENTIAL  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
DETAILED DISCUSSION...  
 
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 290-300K SURFACES IS INCREASING  
RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO  
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT AS WESTERLY  
FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERIC  
COLUMN TO DRY BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. COULD SEE SOME  
STRATUS LINGER CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH  
CENTRAL MISSOURI, OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST  
OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT  
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING.  
 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, EXPECT THIN LAYER OF STRATO-CUMULUS TO  
DEVELOP. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.  
 
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY, AND  
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT MID LEVELS REMAIN  
STUBBORNLY DRY. THEREFORE, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY  
LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. AS THE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH,  
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS PLEASANT FOR A DECEMBER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING  
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS  
THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS STRONG FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE  
FEEDS NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY  
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI. ON TUESDAY, MODELS  
ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ABOVE  
850 MB. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SPEED  
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW, SPC OUTLOOKS ARE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH  
WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER, BUT STILL IS A CHANCE THIS FAR NORTH.  
 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY  
NIGHT...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
LOWERED CIGS AND REDUCED VIS PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SIX  
HOURS AS -RA AND BR CONTINUE. VIS FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN 1-4SM ARE  
ANTICIPATED OVER THIS TIME FRAME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT  
OR BELOW 1000FT.  
 
CIGS LIFT AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS MORNING RETURNING TO MVFR AFTER  
SUN RISE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME CONDITIONS AS  
GUIDANCE IS STILL PRODUCING DIVERSE SOLUTIONS. ONE ARC PROPOSES  
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER BREAKS UP TO  
MORE SCT SKY COVERAGE. MUCH OF IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE CURRENT  
CONDITIONS PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BT  
AVIATION...PESEL  
 
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