242
FXUS63 KEAX 251120
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
(10- 25% CHANCES, MAINLY AM); HIGHEST POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (30-60% CHANCES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY AND TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT BIG PICTURE VIEW ACROSS CONUS CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING THE EAST AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS OR CUT-OFF LOWS
PROVIDING ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND PACIFIC COAST
AREAS. WHILE CENTRAL CONUS IS THE TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO
REGIMES, THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOMINANTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE WESTWARD OOZE OF THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
FOR TODAY, THAT MEANS YET ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT DAY FOR THE MOST
PART WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORK-WEEK STARTS OUT MUCH
THE SAME, ALBEIT LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER AS 925-850MB TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN FROM AROUND 13 DEG C TO 11 DEG C. BY
MONDAY, THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL HAVE
BEGUN TO DRIFT NE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PUSH BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES W/NW OF THE AREA, YIELDING NO
MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
BY TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL OPEN WAVE WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY FLATTENED AND SHUNTED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS
MOST READILY ALLOWS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW
AND A SMATTERING OF QPF. THE QPF MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS AS LIFT IS
CONCENTRATED ABOVE 700MB AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LACKLUSTER LAPSE
RATES / NO INSTABILITY AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. NBM DID POPULATE
WITH SOME LOW (<25 PERCENT) POPS AT TIMES TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER W/NW
AREAS OF THE CWA, BUT HAVE LEFT THEM IN PLACE AS SOME LIGHT RAIN
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WEDNESDAY SEES STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND SOME INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING YIELD SOME
INSTABILITY, BUT THE LACK OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AND CAP SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, QUESTION BECOMES
JUST HOW FAR SOUTHWARD A SYNOPTIC FRONT IS ABLE TO PROGRESS.
NEAR/ALONG THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION, AND IS REFLECTED IN 25-50 PERCENT POPS MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY
YIELDS SIMILAR QUESTIONS TO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POSITION OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT LOOKING TO DICTATE WHERE AND IF ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SEE IN THE AREA. PREVAILING SENTIMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS BEST CHANCES PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST PARTIALLY HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT PREVAILING ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS POINT TO
ONGOING SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE 70S.
ROUNDING OUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE ACTIVE, AT LEAST PRIMED FOR PRECIPITATION/SHOWERS. MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL CORROBORATED, ALONG WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SW MID-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE ARRIVALS, RESULT TENDS TO BE
BROAD/AREA-WIDE 30-60 PERCENT POPS MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INEVITABLY, IT WILL NOT RAIN THAT ENTIRE TIME, BUT A
WAIT AND SEE AS SHORTWAVE TIMING GETS RESOLVED IN COMING DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ALSO POTENTIALLY MEANS A SOGGY HALLOWEEN ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LIKELY COOL DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE / POTENTIAL PRECIP TIMING YIELDS MAXT
25TH/75TH TEMP SPREADS APPROACHING 7 TO 10+ DEG F.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, LARGELY AROUND 4-7 KTS OR LESS. PREDOMINANT DIRECTION
BEING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. CLOUD COVER TENDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
VARIETY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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