757
FXUS63 KEAX 261130
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COLD WEEK AHEAD WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
* A FEW LATE WEEK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING VERY LIGHT CHANCES OF
SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
FAIRLY STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND WESTERN US RIDGING CYCLING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK KEEPING
THE CENTRAL US IN NORTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
THIS MORNING LEADING TO NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO F IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AT THE STJ
AIRPORT. WITH THESE FRIGID CONDITIONS, A SLIGHT WINDS WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND -20 F AND WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY THIS MORNING AS IS. FOR TODAY, EXPECT TO SEE A NICE
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS NEAR SURFACE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHIFTS SOUTH. 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 7 C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY LATE DAY. THIS INCREASED FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE QUASI-MIXED
LIMITING HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES FALL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AT 925 HPA AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
WARMING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES FALL
WHICH COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A NICE WARM UP, BUT
FLOW ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS BACK OUT OF THE NORTH AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS AND BUILDS SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL US AS A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL WAVES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST IS A LOBE THAT BEGINS AS A SPOKE AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY BUT ROTATES COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE
WEST PASSING OVER THE REGION MID-DAY FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT BUILDING SOUTH. LREF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 5-10% CHANCE OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW, BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES DROP TO NEAR 0
WITH SLIGHT INCREASES IN ACCUMULATION (GREATER THAN 0.5").
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US
ON FRIDAY, BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT-
SUNDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE, BUT LREF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW (LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW) ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL WARM TODAY AS WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE, BECOMING MARGINALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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