832
FXUS63 KEAX 230853
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT WET,
WHICH MIGHT EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER,
THOUGH OTHERWISE IT IS LOOKING TO BE A NICE EARLY SPRING TIME RAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE SPINNING ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE
SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS, FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
THROUGH KANSAS TODAY, WITH THE CENTROID OF THE LOW LIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, BEFORE GETTING SWEPT EAST AND TORN APART SUNDAY
BY A TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT OF THIS
EXPECTED EVOLUTION, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVING THE RAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE; THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST
THE WEAKENING MORNING LOW LEVEL JET, THUS RESULTING IN HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THIS AFTERNOON
CAM'S AND OPERATIONAL MODELS, LIKE THE NAM AND RAP, ARE
ADVERTISING A BIT OF RE-INVIGORATION IN THE STORMY ACTIVITY;
WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AS SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY, THE
INSTABILITY LOOKS INSUFFICIENT TO FUEL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE
QPF. FOR THE EVENING HOURS, WE EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR THE STORMS TO
SHIFT NORTH A BIT AS THE CENTER OF SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER, LIKELY DRAGGING MORE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH, HAVE TWEAKED QPF VALUES
UP ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS LEAVES WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM
A THIRD OF AN INCH TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTH ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. AND, WHILE AREAS AWAY
FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS KIND OF RAIN,
LOCATIONS NEAR THE FLOODING MISSOURI RIVER MAY QUICKLY FLOOD AS A
RESULT, AND WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL START A LITTLE COOL IN THE WAKE
OF THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A
LARGE 500MB WEAKNESS THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE WEST COAST BY MID-
WORK WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
WILL HELP LIFT HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT THIS WILL ALSO COME WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
STORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI MAR 22 2019
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXISTING DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY, THOUGH BY 20 TO 21Z, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT TOWARD
SUNSET BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CUTTER
AVIATION...WELSH
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