468  
FXUS63 KEAX 051114  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO  
ACCOUNT FOR THE ECHOES SHOWING UP IN EASTERN KS. THIS APPEARS TO  
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, SUBTLE WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS,  
PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT TO GET SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP  
ACTUALLY SHOWS THIS WAVE AT THE 500MB AND 400 MB LEVELS THAT THEN  
TRACKS TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN MO BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS THIS  
ACTIVITY SURVIVING WELL INTO THE DAY IS LOW SO HAVE JUST TAKEN  
POPS TO AROUND 15Z.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGE  
 
* HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100-110 FOR THE REST OF  
THE WEEK OVER THE CWA  
 
* WEDNESDAY COULD BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND  
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI  
 
WITH CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING WARMER, MOIST AIR FROM THE  
SOUTH, HOT HUMID DAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A  
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME RIDGING TO THE WEST. WITH  
MISSOURI BEING IN A REGION OF MILD UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THIS  
WILL HINDER UPWARD MOTION LIMITING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THE JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH  
LEAVING WINDS RATHER WEAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A STAGNANT  
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.  
 
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS  
AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH, HOWEVER THE NAM  
MOVES IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF IOWA A LITTLE BIT FASTER. WITH  
THE INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, A SCATTERED TO  
BROKEN CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN PART  
OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL ALSO  
BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY LOW  
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF MISSOURI, BUT A  
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. SKEW-T'S SHOW A RATHER  
DECENT CAP WHICH MAY INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY  
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 105 FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEK.  
 
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE  
HEAT WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS  
IS MAINLY A RESULT OF THE DURATION OF THE HEAT EXTENDING INTO A  
4TH DAY RATHER THAN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110. SOME OF THIS  
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES  
FURTHER OUT DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.  
 
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE  
WEEKEND, LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE ZONAL. AS THE HIGH  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A MORE  
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THE HUMIDITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH STEADY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN  
EASTERN KS SO HAVE ADDED SOME VCSH TO THE IXD FORECAST. IT'S  
POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE  
MKC AND MCI TERMINALS. BUT EVEN IF IT DOES, IMPACTS WILL BE  
MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT, THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL INCREASE SO HAVE ADDED A VCTS GROUP TO STJ, MCI, AND  
MKC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060-  
103>105.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-102.  
 
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ028-029-  
037>040-043>046-053-054.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-  
020>025-030>033.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...CDB  
DISCUSSION...COLLIER/CDB  
AVIATION...CDB  
 
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