115
FXUS63 KEAX 270615
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 25% WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ALSO
EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, NEARLY 30 DEGREES, AND
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25%. RH VALUES MAY ACTUALLY FALL INTO THE
15-20% RANGE IN PLACES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15KTS. GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30
MPH. THIS WILL ALL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CONDITIONS ARE PLEASANT AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 50S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. CURRENT WINDS
ARE 5-10 KT FROM THE W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD, WEAK SFC HIGH
STRETCHES ENE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL
ROTATE EAST ACROSS ONTARIO, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE KC METRO FRIDAY EVENING. OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASING W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
WARM, BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
25-30 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM, WITH GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES COULD OVERACHIEVE SLIGHTLY, SO
DECIDED TO TREND THE FORECAST WARMER (AND DRIER) WITH MAXT (TD).
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING BELOW 30%, AND RH VALUES BELOW 25%
LOOK FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH), CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO HIGHLIGHT
THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH MO AND
EASTERN KS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY END UP STALLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE LARGER
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY COULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN NORTHERN MO TO THE 70S
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH IMPACTS PERHAPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT WARMER, MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION, WHILE SFC FLOW MAY REMAIN OUT OF THE E OR NE.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT, THIS
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MO AND EASTERN KS. IN GENERAL, SNOW
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN MO WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOUTHERN MO. SOMEWHAT NARROWER TRANSITION
ZONES OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN FOR MULTIPLE HOURS, HOWEVER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME RANGE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF P-TYPE
CHANGEOVERS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DETAILED P-TYPE TIMING AND
AMOUNTS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE AREA SEEING
AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP WELL
BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, SO SLICK
CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAINS
LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS START SOUTHWESTERLY AND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PEAK GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...PESEL
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