820
FXUS63 KEAX 190811
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
THE DANGEROUS HEAT THE REGION HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, USED PERSISTENCE FOR DEWPOINTS WITH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY
HIGHER 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES. THIS COMBINATION PRODUCES HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 110 TO 115 RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EASTERN KANSAS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
IT'S NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT SOME RELIEF WILL OCCUR. MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE, THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT AND CONFINED
TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. INCREASED QPF FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL GIVEN THE GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH MORE SUBDUED DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY, INCREASING
TO AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PREVAILING
PERIOD. WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET HAVE ALLOWED
HIGHER MOMENTUM WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PPIETRYCHA
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