992  
FXUS63 KEAX 080509  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1209 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST  
SATURDAY.  
 
- HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TOMORROW, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.  
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT REGION WIDE 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM  
TOMORROW.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING.  
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
- LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025  
 
THE MCS WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL IOWA AROUND 3 AM  
THIS MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN  
MISSOURI HAS FINALLY LARGELY DECAYED AND EXITED THE REGION TO  
THE EAST. HOWEVER, WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR AND SOME CLOUD COVER  
LINGERING, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY THE MCS HAVE  
BEEN REVISED DOWN BY QUITE A BIT (3 PM TEMP AT KIRKSVILLE IS  
ONLY 78). ELSEWHERE, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY AS  
ADVERTISED WITH 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOWER 90S, AS THE 599 DAM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NM/AZ  
BORDER CONTINUES TO HEAVILY INFLUENCE OUR CURRENT WEATHER. WARM  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY  
DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 2  
OVERNIGHTS, THERE IS VIRTUALLY ZERO CHANCE FOR AN MCS OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW, A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE, THE  
STOUT H5 HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO, BUT THE RIDGE  
BECOMES MORE ELONGATED EAST TO WEST, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE  
HIGHER TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PLAINS  
TO MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,  
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 70S. AND WITH  
ESSENTIALLY ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES EXPECTED, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR  
SOMETHING TO DERAIL THE HEAT. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN  
ISSUED CWA WIDE FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM TOMORROW FOR HEAT INDICES  
RANGING FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES.  
 
BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH  
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH A  
DEEPENING CLOSED H5 LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN  
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BORDER. THIS SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT  
EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SW IOWA  
AND SE NEBRASKA, STALLING OUT ESSENTIALLY ON THE DOORSTEP OF  
FAR NW MISSOURI BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS ACROSS NW MISSOURI FOR SATURDAY  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS (SOUTH OF THE  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARD THE STALLED  
COLD FRONT). TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TOWARD THE  
OZARK PLATEAU, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED  
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED (50+ KNOT) MID LEVEL  
WESTERLY WINDS MOVING FROM COLORADO INTO SE NEBRASKA BY LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS THE REGION BY AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND  
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE  
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, AND SPC HAS INDEED HIGHLIGHTED  
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9",  
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AND WPC HAS A  
VERY SIMILAR AREA (ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70) HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY. CHANCE  
TO LIKELY (40% TO 60%) POPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT  
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH A HIGHER THREAT FOR LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL  
ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING AS WE GET ANOTHER WAVE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC  
SUPPORT TO INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT (WHICH SHOULD BEGIN  
TO MAKE SOME VERY SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BY SUNDAY NIGHT)  
AND PWATS INCREASING A BIT CLOSER TO 2". ACCORDINGLY, WPC HAS  
UPGRADED AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.  
 
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AND EVEN TUESDAY  
MORNING AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE CWA, BUT IT  
SHOULD EVENTUALLY UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY  
DISSOLVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD  
BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE  
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE WITH  
DIURNAL MIXING THIS MORNING. INITIAL GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20  
KTS, BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON  
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. TOWARDS THE EVENING, WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS DIURNAL MIXING DIMINISHES.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-  
043>046-053-054.  
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
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