647
FXUS63 KEAX 210846
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
246 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MARKEDLY FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AS BROAD, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS
AND BRINGS THE REGION A STOUT WARM-UP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
COOLEST DAY THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WILL BE TODAY, AND WE
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. BIAS-
CORRECTED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING IN RECENT DAYS WITH THE
MIXING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS TOO LOW, FORECAST DEW POINTS TOO HIGH, AND
FORECAST WINDS TOO WEAK. INCORPORATED SOME RAW GUIDANCE INTO
TODAY'S FORECAST BASED ON VERIFICATION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH RESULTED IN BUMPING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OR LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MODEST TODAY (PROBABLY 10 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR SO), SO FIRE-
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MERELY ELEVATED VERSUS ALARMING.
NEVERTHELESS, ANY FIRES MAY SPREAD SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TODAY GIVEN
THE FORECAST CONDITIONS.
WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
WITH MUTED NOCTURNAL WEAKENING AT BEST TONIGHT, DEW POINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE...AND SO WILL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN THIS MORNING, AND
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. IT ONLY GOES UP FROM THERE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS PUTS RECORDS ON BOTH DAYS IN JEOPARDY,
ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES, WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR DAYS IN WHICH STEADIER SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP, AS THESE COULD BE MORE-ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER DAYS FOR
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT, THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN.
MODEL TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE TAKEN AN INTERESTING TURN
FOR THE PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM A DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
MOST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE
EJECTION OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS DAMPENS THE
RIDGE STRENGTH MUCH MORE STRONGLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
ACTUALLY LOWERS CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN 70S BEING ATTAINED IN THE
KC AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE MORE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATION IS THAT FORECAST HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE
DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S. OF COURSE, THIS WOULD STILL BE
AROUND 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT IT
IS A MORE NOTICEABLE DROP FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
PERHAPS EVEN MORE INTERESTINGLY, IT PROVIDES A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW SUBSEQUENT PERTURBATIONS EJECT EASTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH, WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
REMAINING HIGHLY VARIABLE OVERALL. HOWEVER, A DISCERNIBLE TREND
AMIDST THE MODEL NOISE IS DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND OR EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK (AS DEPICTED BY 00Z GFS/CMC) AND ANOTHER
AROUND THE NEW YEAR (AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS AND SEVERAL AI
MODELS). ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS POOR BY THIS TIME FRAME, OWING
TO LARGE VARIATIONS IN SYSTEM TIMING/EVOLUTION, BUT THE GENERAL
GIST OF THIS IS THAT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE THE WEEK OF NEW YEAR'S DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY
AT 7-10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KMCI: 72/2021
KSTJ: 69/2021
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 53/1936
KSTJ: 51/1936
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...WFO EAX
CLIMATE...CMS
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