699  
FXUS63 KEAX 131724  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1124 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -15 IN  
NORTHWESTERN MO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KS. A COLD WEATHER  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
 
- WINTRY MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING IN FAR NORTHERN MO. A  
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH RAIN  
CHANGING TO SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH  
POSSIBLE.  
 
- COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
FORECAST WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW.  
 
- CHANCE FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN MONDAY  
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF DANGEROUS COLD  
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
WE GET TO BREATHE IN FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY ALTHOUGH THAT  
BREATH WILL BE COLD! TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCALE ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI DROPPING IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FACTOR IN THE WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL  
RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO, AS SUCH A COLD WEATHER  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z ACROSS NW MISSOURI AND EXTREME NE  
KANSAS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COME COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE  
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING WEAK  
MIXING. AND, WILL A SNOWPACK IN PLACE THAT WILL MAKE FOR A COLD DAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
TEMPERATURES BEING FLAT OR EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREE OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY THE LOW MAY OCCUR BEFORE OF AREA MIDNIGHT  
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. STRONG WAA WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISING INTO THE  
MID 30S TO MID 40S. A QUICK MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT FROM  
A UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE THROUGH  
THE REGION FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL SKIRT  
THE LOCAL AREA BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A QUICK MOVING ROUND OF A  
WINTRY MIX TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR.  
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE MAY BE  
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL  
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS  
ADVERTISES A RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO WITH MUCH HIGHER QPF THEN THE EC  
WHICH SHUNTS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY  
WITH JUST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT EQUATING TO A  
ALL SNOW EVENT. EITHER WAY ANY SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS NBM  
PROBS ONLY BRING A 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW  
TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.  
 
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, STRONG  
CAA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID  
30S TO MID 40S AHEAD OF FRONT SATURDAY, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL  
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10. FACTOR IN THE WINDS AND  
THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND CHILLS RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW.  
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER  
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOW LOWS TO DROP  
BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA WITH MODEL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW HOWEVER CONDITIONS  
MAY BE TOO DRY. BETTER SNOW CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO  
THE PLAINS. WITH VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE (LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS). SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH AND WILL  
NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE QUICKLY SO THIS SYSTEM  
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH  
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. IN THE WAKE OF THAN SYSTEM, VERY COLD  
TEMPERATURE AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL  
CHANCES FROM WIND CHILLS TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, THOUGH MID-  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT WINDS  
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT  
AND THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.  
SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF  
25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...73  
AVIATION...CDB  
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