128
FXUS63 KEAX 020331
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.
- MAINLY NE MISSOURI AND THEN S OF HIGHWAY 50
* SEASONALLY COOL/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
- FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY N OF MISSOURI RIVER
* WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND AFTER
- SPC DAY 3 (SUNDAY PM) MARGINAL RISK FOR NE TO E MISSOURI
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WHICH INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF FROST, QUIET AND
COOL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. SKIES HAVE SEEN
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOW 60S. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO NW/N
MISSOURI AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT N MISSOURI
HIGHS TO CURRENT WHILE AREAS AROUND AND SOUTH OF MISSOURI RIVER
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLAW INTO THE MID 60S BEFORE TOPPING OUT. A PAIR
OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY, MOVING OUT OF C/S NEBRASKA AND IOWA
RESPECTIVELY. TRAJECTORIES FOR BOTH TEND TO SKIRT THE AREA. DIURNAL
MIXING AND THESE SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO YIELD JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SPARK OF A COUPLE/FEW WEAK SHOWERS OVER NE
MISSOURI AND BACK INTO. IN BOTH CASES, AN ABUNDANTLY DRY NEAR-
SURFACE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. MORE LIKELY WILL BE HIGHLY
VISIBLE VIRGA TO SPRINKLES.
INTO THE WEEKEND, SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD/COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH WARMEST WEST (MID 60S) AND COOLEST EAST (UPPER 50S/LOW
60S). OTHERWISE QUITE A NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES.
BY SUNDAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR RETURN AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS REESTABLISH BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS REMAIN
FORECAST TO JUMP BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. W/SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY TOUCH THE LOW 80S.
SUNDAY EVENING TOO SEES THE RETURN OF MORE APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE AREA AS A COOL/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE AREA. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE LARGER GULF "CLOSED" TO THE AREA SO
TO SPEAK, MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO PUSH TDS BACK
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. DETERMINISTIC SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD WITH THEIR SB/MLCAPE DEPICTIONS,
INCLUDING RECENT (12Z) GFS DEPICTING AREAS OF >2000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS GOOD CAPPING DEPICTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT ALSO A NOTABLE WEAKNESS IN CAPPING WITHIN AN AREA OF
GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN AND LINGERING COOLER SURFACE TEMPS OVER
E/NE MISSOURI. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS NOT THE MOST WELL DEFINED, SO
THERE IS GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD AND WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO BE ACHIEVED. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE ABOVE,
NE/E MISSOURI REMAINS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
SUPPORTIVE DEEP SHEAR AND DEEP W TO NW FLOW SUGGEST ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL AND A RESULTING HAIL/WIND THREAT PRIMARILY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK AS BROAD MID-UPPER
TROUGHING AGAIN DIGS DOWN INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS CONCURRENT WITH A
SW CONUS MID-UPPER CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY WORKING INLAND. SYNOPTIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRAPPLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE BROADER
FEATURES AND THEIR SURFACE DETAILS. THIS CARRIES RAMIFICATIONS FOR
HOW MUCH NEAR SURFACE OR DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN CAN BE ACHIEVED, HOW
FAR NORTH A WARM FRONT CAN TRANSLATE, COLD FRONTAL TIMING, ETC..
CURRENT 12Z RUNS POINT TOWARDS WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RESULT WOULD BE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING
UP NEAR/ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND OVERALL COVERAGE TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. THEN OF QUESTION MAY BE HOW PROGRESSIVE
THE FRONT IS (TRAINING STORMS?) WITH SUGGESTIONS IT COULD HANG UP
WITH SURFACE LOW OVER OK AND MAY TAKE UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TUE/WED TO FULLY USHER OUT. BUT AGAIN, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HERE WITH REGARDS TO HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT AND
IN TURN THE DETAILS ON SEVERE AND/OR FLOODING RISKS.
NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMES REESTABLISHED MID-LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN
OVERALL QUIETER CONDITIONS BUT ALSO INCREASING VARIABILITY IN
SHORTWAVE OR LARGE FEATURE DEPICTIONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WORK WEEK GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TO
GRADUAL WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDS WITH CLR SKIES ARE FCST THRU THE PD. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE N/NNW AROUND 5KTS THRU 15Z-17Z WHEN THEY WILL BACK TO
THE NW/WNW AND INCR TO 5-10KTS. AFT 22Z-00Z WINDS WILL BECOME
LGT AND VRB.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>024-030-031.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...73
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