431  
FXUS63 KEAX 252314  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
THE LONG ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS STEADILY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH  
THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 3PM, THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WAS  
LOCATED FROM KIRKSVILLE TO BISECTING THE MIDDLE OF THE KC METRO  
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE BREAKS IN  
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE  
LOWER 80S. STILL WITH THE WARM WEATHER, MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES EXIST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA,  
OVERALL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MARGINAL. WHILE ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, ACTIVITY IS  
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST, WITH THE MAJORITY OF  
ACTIVITY OCCURRING POST-FRONTAL. UPON THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,  
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 60S WITHIN A FEW HOURS,  
WITH A WIND SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. DURING THE EVENING,  
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.  
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST  
LOCATIONS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND  
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL  
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A WARM FRONT  
WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS/NEAR  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING INSENTROPIC ASCENT WILL  
LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. DETAILS TO THE SPECIFICS AND TIMING WILL BE  
REFINED AS MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY/CONFIDENCE INCREASES, BUT  
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR APPEAR TO HAVE THE  
GREATEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING READINGS  
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AREA BECOMES MORE FIRMLY IN THE  
WARM SECTOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2018  
 
MVFR CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS  
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO HANG MUCH, AND WILL LIKELY BREAK UP AND SCATTER OUT  
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE  
WINDS START EASING UP.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BLAIR  
AVIATION...CUTTER  
 
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