876
FXUS63 KEAX 162055
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
THE PRIMARY STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S - ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HUMID FEEL, WITH HEAT
INDICIES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE SWELLED
THIS AFTERNOON, YET THESE SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WITH THE EXISTING CINH AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DO LITTLE TO
COOL MUCH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINING PLACE,
A SIMILAR WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH OR
EXCEED 90 DEGREES WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
DAKOTAS, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AND SHIFT INTO FAR NW MO BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF
THE TROUGH, THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEBRASKA MAY HELP SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY OVER NW MO,
BUT AGAIN THIS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COMES THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND NEAR PARALLEL UPPER FLOW
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT, SOME THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
REPEATED BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...BLAIR
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