441
FXUS63 KEAX 140734
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS SCATTERED STORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. THIS HAS KEPT OUR REGION UNDER A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS REX BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY AS A STRONG 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDDAY. AT PRESENT, TWO MCSS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE WESTERN ONE, OVER NORTH
DAKOTA, IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE. THROUGH SUNRISE,
EXPECT BOTH MCSS TO BE ONGOING, WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SETTING UP
WITHIN THE LARGER WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT, MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL TRANSPORT LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS BY THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT WHEN PAIRED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL,
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT SURGES AND
A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER QUIET, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING. HAZE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURTZ
AVIATION...KLAUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page