984
FXUS63 KEAX 041746
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS, SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HAS MINIMIZED THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HAS REDUCED POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (20-30%) IN EXACT EVOLUTION OF
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AFTER 3PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW HOURS CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
TRAVERSES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH NEW STORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TRAILING BEHIND. THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING AS IT
FOLLOWS ALONG MEAN ATMOSPHERIC FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SPURRED ON BY BROAD SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAXIMA PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS IT STANDS, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED, WITH STABLE LOW LAYERS DUE TO COLD POOLING AND A BULK
OF CAPE RESIDING IN THE MIXED LAYER. THUS, ANTICIPATED SEVERE
IMPACTS WITH THESE STORMS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH THE
GREATEST HAZARDS BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS GUSTS AS
STORMS COLLAPSE.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DETERMINING FORECAST IMPACTS DURING THE DAY
WILL DEPEND A LOT ON REAL-TIME ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS. CAMS CONTINUE
TO PERFORM POORLY WHEN IT COMES TO RESOLVING CURRENT ACTIVITY, AND
AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY SOLUTIONS THEY PROVIDE TO
GUIDE THE FORECAST PROCESS. UTILIZING WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
AT PRESENT, WEAK DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROMPT IT
TO SLOWLY LIFT TOWARDS THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE LINGERS, CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
SPARK ALONG WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFTING FROM THIS AREA OF DCVA. CURRENT
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS, WHICH SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
THIS CONVECTION, AS IT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE NIGHT, COULD
LEAD TO CONTINUED IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING BY WAY OF ONGOING CONVECTION OR NEW ACTIVITY FIRING OFF
ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WHATEVER ENDS UP BEING THE CASE,
THE PRESENCE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD IMPACT THE TIMING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ACTIVITY LINGERS,
IT COULD KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOWER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WON'T HAVE TOO MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO HEAT
UP AND EVENTUALLY DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER, IF THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT
RELATIVELY QUICK AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALLOWED TO DESTABILIZE
EARLIER, CHANCES ARE GREATER IN SEEING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD CREATE A GREATER
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS
THEY BUILD UP AND QUICKLY COLLAPSE. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO CONSIDER
WILL BE THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE, THIS
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO DRAPE A BOUNDARY DOWN ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE A GREATER
FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS, AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
WHEN THIS BOUNDARY WILL CROSS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA, EITHER
PLACING IT AS EARLY AS SUNSET OR A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE NIGHT.
AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MODELS TO
RESOLVE AND AGREE ON THIS RELATIVE TO MESOSCALE FEATURES, SO THE
FORECAST AHEAD WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND TO SEE IF THAT
OCCURS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOWER, WITH
LOWER EFFECTIVE SHEAR KEEPING STORMS LESS ORGANIZED DESPITE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK OVERALL FORCING. WITH STRONG STORMS,
YOU COULD EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS.
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR OUT GOING INTO SUNDAY, AND "COOLER" TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ONCE AGAIN WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. HOWEVER, UNLIKE
THIS PREVIOUS WEEK, LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BELOW TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS
OUR AREA DRIER THROUGH THIS EARLY WEEK TIMEFRAME, BEFORE POPS
INCREASE GOING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIMEFRAME, GREATER DEVIATION IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE REMAINS EVIDENT, AND AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER
ON WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY PAN OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE ACTIVITY FROM KS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA PRIMARILY IMPACTING
MANY OF TAF SITE LOCATION, PARTICULARLY FROM KMKC AND KIXD AS
THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING HAVING BEEN MOVING
THROUGH KIXD AND SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN KSTJ WITH -TSRA AND KEPT THEM IN PROB30 BUT THERE COULD BE A
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER KEPT THE TEMPO GROUPS IN FROM 18Z-20Z FOR THE
KMCI, KMKC AND KIXD, ESPECIALLY AS THIS INITIAL LINE MOVES
THROUGH. I HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM 20Z-23Z
AS THE STORMS MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF KMHK CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST. GUIDANCE DID NOT RESOLVE THE ACTIVITY WELL, BUT EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAFS SITES THROUGH 23Z. HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT FROM 20-23Z ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS BY 20Z. EXPECT
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE WITH VFR AFTER 00Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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