899
FXUS63 KEAX 010822
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
222 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO TODAY.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY (7.34UM / CHANNEL 10) SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NE AND KS AS OF
08Z SUNDAY. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WHICH SHOWS UP WELL
FROM 280K TO 290K, IS LEADING TO SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ON THE
0.5 REGIONAL RADAR PLOT. HOWEVER, LOCAL EAX 88D IMAGERY, AND
AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IS
INHIBITING THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THERE IS
MORE SHOWERY LOOKING RETURNS SHOWING UP IN NORTHEASTERN KS AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN MO, STILL WITHIN THE AREA OF ASCENT NOTED
EARLIER. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE
SURFACE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THAT SAID, THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKS EAST, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT, WHICH WILL QUICKLY ERODE CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO EASTERN ND/SD AND WESTERN MN EARLY
THIS MORNING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEASTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO ACCOUNT
FOR BOTH FEATURES AND GET SOME FLURRY TO LIGHT SNOW MENTION IN
THE FORECAST. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE ASCENT, LEADS TO LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THESE WAVES WILL HELP THE AREA WARM UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND WE MAY BE SEE NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS TODAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THAT TREND FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. FOR MONDAY, HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE MID
40S OVER EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO, WITH MIDDLE 30S IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS MAY BE END UP BEING A FEW DEGREES TOO
WARM GIVEN THERE IS STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO MELT.
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A
STORM SYSTEM THAT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, THURSDAY - FRIDAY,
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S FOR EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES OR
EVEN INTO THE PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A TIGHT PACKING OF 500MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS A RESULT
OF A DEEP LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND THE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US. FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY, THERE IS 10+ DEGREE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES AND A 20+
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES. IF THE
RIDGE IS STRONGER AND/OR FURTHER EAST, WE'LL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE MODEL RANGE. A STRONGER HUDSON BAY LOW, AND COLDER
AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE MEAN AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD WITH OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS
BTN 6-10KFT FCST THRU 14Z-15Z. AFT 14Z-15Z SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 5-10KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PD BUT WILL INCR TO
10-15KTS AROUND 14Z-15Z. AFT 21Z-22Z WINDS WILL BECOME W/WNW
BTN 5-10KTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR FLURRIES OR A BRF LGT
SNOW BTN 10Z-13Z HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
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