359
FXUS63 KEAX 061151
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING(10-30%). MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY(70-90%).
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES RISING TO THE 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
FOR THE ONGOING STORMS NOW, FAR NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA
WILL BE THE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON. INSTABILITY REMAINS GOOD
AROUND 2000 TO 2500, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LACKING. THE BEST
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS IS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO IA.
DUE TO THE LACKING SHEAR, STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO STAY
ORGANIZED, BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST COULD STILL CAUSE SOME CONCERNS. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STILL GOOD AROUND 7C/KM. SO THUNDERSTORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE PULSY TO LINEAR AT BEST WITH GOOD VERTICAL GROWTH.
THIS COULD LEAD TO DOWNBURST ACTIVITY OR SOME BRIEF HAILERS
UNDER THE BEST CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY WITH HOW MUCH NORTHERN MO WAS WORKED OVER
YESTERDAY. PWAT REMAIN HIGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA COULD FURTHER EXACERBATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
AND AERIAL PONDING. ON THING WORKING IN OUR FAVOR HERE TONIGHT
IS THAT STORMS SEEM MUCH MORE TRANSIENT AND WEAKER. QPF TOTALS
ARE MUCH LOWER WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
AN INCH OF RAIN IN COMPARISON TO LAST NIGHT.
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PULL AWAY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT, THESE STORMS WILL LOSE THE NEEDED
LIFT, WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING WITH TIME. MESO GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING OUT PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
FOR SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE DRY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING CUT OFF LOW FROM TX. AS
UPPER LEVEL PVA STARTS TO STREAM IN COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MID LEVEL WAA, MID AFTERNOON/EVENING DESTABILIZATION
LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN. MODELS ARE A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
WHEN CONVECTION STARTS TO FIRE AND WHERE EXACTLY IT FIRES. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MUCH OF MO AND EASTERN
KS BECOMING UNCAPPED AROUND 18Z. THAT COULD FLUCTUATE A HOUR OR
TWO LATER, BUT THAT COULD CONCEIVABLE BE THE EARLIEST
CONVECTION STARTS TO FIRE. MU CAPE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 2000-3000
AGAIN WITH SHEAR AGAIN BEING OUT LIMITING FACTOR WITH VALUES
LESS THAN 30 KTS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN BE MORE OF A PULSE
THUNDERSTORM MODE TYPE. LIGHTNING, WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LOOK TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CUT OFF LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THEN
ADVECTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL THIS
AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A BAD SET UP FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS. CAPE PROFILES ARE VERY NARROW/SKINNY AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL AT BEST. THIS LEAVES SUBSEVERE WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
AND LIGHTNING THE LARGEST CONCERNS FROM A SEVERE PERSPECTIVE.
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE LARGER CONCERN OVERALL. THIS LINES UP
WELL WITH THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THAT HAS PRETTY
MUCH ALL OF MO UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WITH ONGOING HYDROLOGICAL
CONCERNS ALREADY IN THE SHORT TERM, THIS LONG DURATION RAIN
COULD JUST FURTHER EXACERBATE THINGS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT
JUN 6 2026
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. A FEW MODEL RUNS/ENSEMBLE RUNS SEEM TO FAVOR
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS EXITING CUT OFF
LOW SO GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON COMPLETELY REMOVING POPS FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL TREND DOWNWARD IN THE RAIN
MONDAY MORNING AS RAIN/STORMS PULL NORTHEAST. A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THEN CHANCES PICK BACK UP AGAIN AROUND 40-60% FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THIS SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OR IF IT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS AS THE
CUT OFF LOW EXITS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO BRING SOME PVA ALOFT
THROUGH THE CWA AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRY TO WORK
THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THIS TRANSITION ZONE. SO
LOW CHANCE POPS (AROUND 20% OR LESS) DO CROP UP FROM TIME TO
TIME IN THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
PERSISTENT WAA STRAIGHT FROM THE GULF. WE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST
ENOUGH TO GET ANY POPCORN TYPE CONVECTION WITH ANY LIFT THAT
MOVES THROUGH. SPEAKING OF, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR HEAT INDICIES
REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. POTENTIALLY
EVEN MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW OF HOT AND STICKY CONDITIONS. WILL
BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD CLOSELY AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED, GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN STARTING TO MOVE AGAIN WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS ADVANCING EAST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WOULD BE THE LIGHT AT
THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THE HEAT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND ARE MOVING
ALONG I-70. THE BACK EDGE OF THESE LOWERS CEILINGS ARE NEAR THE
EDGE OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND SHOULD MOVE OUT WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN
WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 3-5 KFT. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD START
TO MOVE IN AROUND 9-10 PM AND REACH THE KC METRO BY ROUGHLY
10-11 PM. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER IFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 900 TO
1300 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE CEILINGS DEVELOPING, BUT
IF THEY DO IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PATTERSON
LONG TERM...PATTERSON
AVIATION...PATTERSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page