119
FXUS63 KEAX 212322
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
522 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* MILD WEEK AHEAD, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO) THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
1035 MB SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. THIS FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND WORKING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO WEAKLY MIX ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AND LOW LYING STRATUS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTH REACHING THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, HAVE KEPT FORECAST LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES SHY OF AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM LACKS FORCING TO REALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTH AS WAVE
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST. AS A RESULT, THE FRONT STALLS OUT
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE FRONT, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THIS FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US CONSOLIDATES IN
THE FOUR CORNER REGION. AS THIS WAVE SHIFTS EAST, RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SO CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW RUMBLES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
PATTERN REMAINS MILD THROUGH WEEK'S END WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE A FEW-
SCT DECK DEVELOPS AROUND 20-25KFT TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 20-25
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...COLLIER
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