879
FXUS63 KEAX 212327
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
527 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUSTS ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND 25-35 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MO.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -10S COULD POSE
SIGNIFICANT COLD WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING A
POTENTIAL SHIFT NORTHWARD IN THE STORM TRACK OPENING UP
POSSIBILITIES FOR HIGH SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS KEEPS SKIES DRY AND SUNNY FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A STRONG
PUSH OF DRY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 500MB JET STREAK MOVES IN
FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH STARTS AN OVERALL
DECREASING TEMPERATURE TREND WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS PULSE OF COLD AIR ENTERED FAR NORTHERN MO EARLIER
THE AFTERNOON INCREASING WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH WITH A FEW SITES
RECORDING 45+ MPH WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US-36 CORRIDOR.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE ONSET OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE SHARPLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY DROPPING FROM AROUND 40 TO AROUND 10 RESPECTIVELY. THIS
COLD AIR MASS LOOKS TO DIVE INTO SOUTHERN CONUS NEARLY REACHING THE
GULF COAST. CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO LOOK PARTICULARLY
HAZARDOUS WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NE MO REACHING A MAXIMUM WIND CHILL
OF -15F WITH OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -25 AND -30. AN EXTREME
COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN AND NE MO
WHICH ENCOMPASSES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO -20 DEGREES.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY. THE
CONTINUED PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH COMBINED WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROVIDES A SUITABLE SETUP FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO ACCOMPANY THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE
REMAINS SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES AS THE DEEP PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE GULF COAST WHILE COMPETING NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, UPPER LEVEL LIFT, AND SUBTLE WARM FRONTOGENESIS
ALL WORK TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTHWARD AND OPENING UP
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION.
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 70% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 3" OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-50 WITH A 50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 5". A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE
WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES IF THE NORTHWARD
TREND CONTINUES. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON SNOW TOTALS (ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW JOINED BY THE NAM)
THAN THE GFS LIKELY OWING TO THE SLOWER NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN THE GFS. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW COLD IT WILL BE, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH (KUCHERA RATIOS SUGGESTING 20:1), SO IT WILL NOT TAKE A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO GET A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SNOW RATIOS MUCH HIGHER THAN 15:1;
HOWEVER, THE DEEP INTRUSION OF DRY COLD AIR MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
EXCEED THESE NORMALS. CONSENSUS ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
WHICH DEPENDING ON WHERE THAT GRADIENT POSITIONS ITSELF COULD RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENTIAL IN SNOW TOTALS. AT THE MOMENT, MOST
GUIDANCE PAINTS THIS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE US-
36 CORRIDOR WITH THE MAJORITY SUGGESTING IT SETTING UP MORE TOWARDS
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD RESULT IN LARGE
DISPARITY IN ACCUMULATIONS, FOR EXAMPLE 5 INCHES IN OVERLAND PARK
VERSUS 2 INCHES IN KEARNEY.
THE TIMING OF SNOWFALL IS STILL EVOLVING AS WELL WITH MODELS
TRENDING LATER FOR AN ARRIVAL TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SNOW COULD BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL KS
AND WEST CENTRAL MO CONTINUING TO ENVELOP THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN
THE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THIS
SYSTEM, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LOWS BELOW
ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE WELL BELOW ZERO (-5 TO -15) BOTH NIGHTS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A COLD AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE PASSING SHORTWAVES BRINGING MORE POTENTIAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THROUGH 06Z, WINDS WILL BE STEADY
AROUND 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS AT STJ. WINDS WILL RELAX QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOME BRIEFLY CENTERED OVER
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
W-NW AROUND 7-10 KTS. SKY COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY PASSING
HIGH CIRRUS DECKS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ043>046-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ005>008-015>017.
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ057-060.
UPDATE...SNYDER
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS/PESEL
AVIATION...SNYDER
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