876  
FXUS63 KEAX 162055  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
355 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
THE PRIMARY STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT ACROSS THE  
AREA WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S - ROUGHLY 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE HUMID FEEL, WITH HEAT  
INDICIES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE SWELLED  
THIS AFTERNOON, YET THESE SHOULD PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
IMPACTFUL WEATHER WITH THE EXISTING CINH AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DO LITTLE TO  
COOL MUCH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY  
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINING PLACE,  
A SIMILAR WEATHER DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE  
RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH OR  
EXCEED 90 DEGREES WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.  
 
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE  
DAKOTAS, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA  
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW  
PROBABILITY FOR SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE  
FRONT AND SHIFT INTO FAR NW MO BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK  
AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF  
THE TROUGH, THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEBRASKA MAY HELP SOME  
SCATTERED CONVECTION CREEP SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY OVER NW MO,  
BUT AGAIN THIS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR  
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS COMES THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH  
AND FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG  
DYNAMICS, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND NEAR PARALLEL UPPER FLOW  
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT, SOME THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND  
REPEATED BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BLAIR  
AVIATION...BLAIR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page