042
FXUS63 KEAX 081212
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, WITH ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOOSELY
DEFINED WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR EASTERN KANSAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM,
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY RESIDE IN THE MID 30S, WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS AND 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 60S FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WITHIN OUR
CWA, WITH 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, ALONG WITH SOME MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN.
BY MONDAY, MID/UPPER RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CANADIAN PLAINS SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD, BRINGING
HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NW
IOWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING A BIT IN RESPONSE. ALL OF THIS WILL HELP YIELD VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MO. THE NBM HAS TRENDED WARMER OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36
HOURS FOR MONDAY, AND NOW THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR
MAX T AT MCI ARE 68 AND 72 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY. NOTE THAT THE
RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY AT MCI IS 72 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1943.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN/BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS
IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT (ALTHOUGH STILL CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
NORMAL). THIS QUICKER FROPA WOULD ALSO HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION
PUSHED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD MID MISSOURI
AND THE OZARKS FOR TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
MODELS DIVERGE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WITH
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR MAX T FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD, WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/NW MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
THESE FEATURES. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL YIELD INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND MORE WIDESPREAD QPF, WITH THE NBM SHOWING
A 41% PROBABILITY OF PRECIP EXCEEDING 0.5" AT MCI AND A 33%
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP EXCEEDING 1". THE NBM CURRENTLY GIVES AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIXED OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY MORNING, NAMELY ACROSS NE MISSOURI, BUT OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD TURN WNW BY LATE MORNING,
REMAINING LIGHT, AND FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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