230
FXUS63 KEAX 261836
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY. THE DAILY MAXIMUM
FOR THE KANSAS CITY AREA WILL EASILY BE BROKEN. THE WARMEST
MARCH TEMPERATURE FOR KC IS ALSO IN PLAY.
- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. THEN, WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
24 WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. LARGE HAIL
IS THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 0.50 INCH.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY (RED
FLAG WARNING) AND SATURDAY (FIRE WEATHER WATCH), ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 25% WITH
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY.
- LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
TO LOW 30S. FOLKS WITH AGRICULTURAL/HORTICULTURAL INTEREST
WILL NEED TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED
EARLY THIS SPRING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US
HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOP AND SGF SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER (CAP) WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE. AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH SE NEBRASKA AND WILL
BE ENTERING FAR NW MISSOURI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, TEMPS WERE VERY WARM FOR LATE MARCH WITH MANY LOCATIONS
WELL INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED INTO THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60. THERE ARE SOME ATTEMPTS AT ELEVATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT HOWEVER THEY
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND CAPPING
INVERSION.
HOT AND WINDY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES
THIS EVENING, TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 90 WITH A FEW
AREAS IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORDS (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED GUSTS UP TO 40MPH.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT: LOOKING AT THE 12Z HREF AND LATEST
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. HREF
REFLECTIVITY PAINTBALL PLOTS REALLY HONE IN ON AN AREA OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 10PM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE 850MB
FRONT AND WHEN THE AREA GETS INTO A MAXIMIZED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW 50-60KTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WITH AROUND 1000J/KG OF MU CAPE. THEREFORE IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED THEN A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE.
MOST STORMS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE SUBSEVERE BUT GIVEN THE
CAPE/SHEAR COMBO, A REASONABLE MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE KC METRO. THERE ARE A FEW CAMS THAT DONT
SHOW ANY STORMS THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM AND HREF ARE LESS
THAN 0.50INCH WITH SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEING LITTLE
IF ANY RAINFALL. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE CLEARED THE
AREA BY SUNRISE IF NOT WELL BEFORE. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, GENERAL SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH OUT OF
THE NORTH WILL BE COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35, INCLUDING THE KC METRO. SURFACE
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS TODAY HOWEVER BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SUGGEST GUSTS AROUND 25-LOCALLY 30 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20MPH. WHILE WINDS ARE BORDERLINE FOR
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, THE VERY LOW RH AND ALREADY
SUSCEPTIBLE FUELS FROM FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS SUPPORT A RED FLAG
WARNING TOMORROW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY, WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GIVEN THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR SIMILAR AREAS AS FRIDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 INCLUDING THE KC METRO). MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH RH
IN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH REGIMES THEREFORE RH VALUES COULD DROP
FURTHER INTO THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME AREAS AS FRIDAYS WARNING.
COLD TEMP CONCERNS SATURDAY MORNING: WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND A SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN LOW TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST NBM HAS A 60-90% CHANCE OF TEMPS LESS THAN
32 DEGREES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. AG INTERESTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TEMP TRENDS FOR SAT MORNING AND TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARMER AIR LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS A PATTERN SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. BEFORE THEN,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 GROUP WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KSTJ. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT FOR ANY WESTWARD
EXPANSION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 26:
KMCI: 85/1991
KSTJ: 89/1991
MARCH 30:
KMCI: 82/1986
KSTJ: 86/1968
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>006-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ001>006-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...CMS
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