961
FXUS63 KEAX 231114
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF MORNING FOG EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN (40-60%) OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MO
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- UNSETTLE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A SURFACE FRONT IS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTING ALONG THIS FRONT IN AN AREA OF
WEAK CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION, FOG HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS
HAVE BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN
AREA OF MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE HOWEVER SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AS WELL. AS
SUCH, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO AN
END. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL, REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY WHEN MODEST WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY IN ITS WAKE. THIS
COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
UNDER HE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WHILE CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES
WILL DRIVE HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TUESDAY, WILL BEGIN A UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
COME COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS MID-LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED SO THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. FRIDAY,
THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDER THE
NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
IFR CIGS/VIS ARE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AND ARE FCST TO CONT
THRU 14Z-15Z BEFORE FOG BURNS OFF AND STRATUS SCATTERS OUT. AFT
14Z-15Z...VFR CONDS WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LGT AND
VRB WINDS ARE FCST THRU 14Z-15Z AFT WHICH WINDS WILL INCR OUT OF
THE NW BTN 5-10KTS. AFT 22Z-23Z WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LGT AND
VRB.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73
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