236
FXUS63 KEAX 180716
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
216 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE WEATHER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN WITH NEAR
NORMAL (TODAY) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THE REST OF THE
FORECAST) AND NO HAZARDS EXPECTED. THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN GET OFF
TO CHILLY START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
TODAY, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL WITH MODEST WAA
GETTING UNDERWAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL AID IN HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. MONDAY, A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DOWN
THE WEST COAST. IN RESPONSE, UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WAA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER, HEIGHT RISES WILL AGAIN HELP
THE AREA REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH DOWN THE WEST
COAST FURTHER AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS THE AXIS MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY, A WEAKENED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) OF SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35. WITH THE COLD FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL ACHIEVE THE MID 70 TO LOWER
80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME VIS IMPACTS AT STJ; HOWEVER,
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR AND MO RIVER WATER TEMP COMBINED
WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND SHOULD KEEP AND VIS IMPACTS FROM BEING TOO
SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE TOMORROW MIDDAY PEAKING
WITH 15-20 KNOT GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...PESEL
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