996
FXUS63 KEAX 021104
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS LARGELY
DEFINED BY A MID LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY
MORNING RESIDE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR OMAHA TO OUR NORTH AND
CENTRAL KS TO OUR WEST, BUT THE RADAR REMAINS CLEAR OVER OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEARLY 90 DEGREES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. THE SPC HREF SUGGESTS MU CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG, BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT. SMALL HAIL AND SOME DOWNBURST WINDS
UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE BETTER
DEVELOPED UPDRAFTS. PWAT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES
WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD DECENT RAINFALL RATES, SO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE
BY THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS TO THE WEST TOMORROW,
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO WITH LOWS FLANKING IT TO THE WEST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND TO THE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND (OMEGA BLOCK
TYPE PATTERN). THIS PATTERN IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US IS FORECAST TO
NUDGE ITS WAY FURTHER WEST AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WOULD SEND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST, KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND BRINGING
IN LOWER HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECDTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH A COUPLE
CAVEATS. FIRST, THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BR AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT STJ FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. SECOND, MORE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THIS AFFECTS A TERMINAL THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND POSSIBLY CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY, WILL
ONLY MENTION VCSH AND KEEP THINGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...CDB
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