860
FXUS63 KEAX 202033
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
233 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE WARM DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND MAY BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO THE
REGION, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WERE BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION TONIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH ACROSS IOWA, SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE ISN'T A PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT, SO HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 30S
WITH A FEW LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH. COLD, ARCTIC AIR STARTS TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THURSDAY'S HIGHS OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH DURING THE DAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT THE AREA
IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, BUT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CWA
DRY WITH LIMITED GULF MOISTURE REACHING THIS FAR NORTHWARD AND
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINING IN CONTROL. THE ECMWF HAS
TRENDED A BIT DOWNWARD WITH ITS IMPACTS, BUT CONTINUES TO BRING
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS
AROUND 50-60% FOR HENRY, BATES, AND CASS COUNTIES WITH AROUND
40-45% FOR THE METRO AREA AND 25% ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA
BORDER. ONE ASPECT THAT IS NOT UNCERTAIN IS THAT ANYTHING THAT
FALLS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH NO ICE OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, SO SLIGHT SHIFTS NORTH OR SOUTH WILL LIKELY
HAVE QUITE AN IMPACT FOR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO
TAKE OVER HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY
TONIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR KIXD, WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE EDGE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
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