871
FXUS63 KGID 021126
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY DAYS AHEAD WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S-100S AND LOW
(<10%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
- HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S-100S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA,
SOME AREAS IN OUR SOUTH COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- BROAD RIDGING PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING NEXT WEEK. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO
THE HOT TEMPS AND BETTER ODDS OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA SETTING UP A HOT AND DRY DAY AHEAD.
HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY REACH INTO THE LOW 90S-100S WITH HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S-100S. A WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE AREA, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 20-25 MPH SOUTH OF THE TRI-
CITIES.
THE RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS STAYS CONSTANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING THE WARM TEMPS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONSISTENTLY
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. WITH THESE CONDITIONS HOLDING IN PLACE,
HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH CONSISTENTLY INTO THE 90S-100S. ADDITIONALLY,
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY IN THE MID 90S-100S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SOME AREAS IN OUR SOUTH NEARING THE MID-100S, A HEAT HEADLINE MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW (LESS THAN 10%) FOR THE NEAR FUTURE BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE DRY WHILE THE
RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGING
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT WHICH COULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO
THE HEAT STARTING SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE HEIGHTS FALL WILL
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE RELIEF, CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S-90S TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE PATTERN GRADUALLY CHANGES IT BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES TO PROGRESS THROUGH AND BRING
SOME HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, MOSTLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183
AS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EXITS NORTHEAST
NE. THE LIKELIEST ZONE OF STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SCRAPE RIGHT
ALONG A STRETCH OF AREA FROM BROKEN BOW TO ORD BETWEEN 6 PM THIS
EVENING AND 12 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE AS SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE LIMITED. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1” IN DIAMETER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW 2”+ STONES POSSIBLE FOR OUR
NORTHERNMOST LOCATIONS WHERE SHEAR MOST OVERLAPS WITH BUOYANCY.
SPC HAS ALSO INCLUDED A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR THESE AREAS WHERE
12Z HREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST MARGINAL OVERLAP IN STP AND HIGH
CELL REFLECTIVITIES. THE HEAVIEST STORM CELLS LOOK TO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PRECIP RATES OF 0.25” – 0.5” PER HOUR (~30%
CHANCES TO SEE THESE RATES) OWING TO HRRR– AND RRFS-PROGGED
PWATS OF ~1.5” COUPLED WITH MLCAPE OF 2600 – 3100 J/KG.
BEYOND TONIGHT, VERY LOW CHANCES (<10%) OF ISOLATED PRECIP
CONTINUE EACH DAY GIVEN OUR SANDWICHED POSITION BETWEEN THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE PERSISTENT EAST-CENTRAL RIDGE.
DESPITE THIS, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS FAVORED TO
REMAIN DRY, AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE MINUSCULE IN
AMOUNTS. THE NEXT “REASONABLE” PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (~20% CHANCES), AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (20 – 30% CHANCES).
THOSE OF US WHO ENJOY COOL FALL WEATHER WILL HAVE TO WAIT. A
HOT START TO SEPTEMBER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE
EAST- CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F TO LOW 100S F
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND AS WE GET INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OUR
SIX KS COUNTIES ARE THE LIKELIEST TO SEE TEMPS HIT 100 F OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS (12Z HREF PROBABILITIES ~50 – 70%) WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 70S F. DESPITE MODEST
DEWPOINTS, LATEST NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES HEAT INDICES WILL
APPROACH AND MAY EXCEED 105 F FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL BE OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BORDERING NWS NORTH PLATTE’S CWA, WHERE TEMPERATURES
CAN DIP TO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S F (~60% CHANCES OF LOWS <65 F).
THE NEXT “COOL DOWN” LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND TO BRING
IN LABOR DAY, BUT THIS REGRETTABLY DOESN’T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES’ RELIEF. CPC CONTINUES TO FORESEE
WARMER-THAN- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
RETREAT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS IT PASSES.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY RE-SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND REPEAT THE PROCESS TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30,
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY MOSTLY STEADY FROM 5 - 15 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS OF 10 -
20 MPH WINDS IN KS WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL BOOST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW GUSTS
CAN REACH AS HIGH AS 25 – 30 MPH SOUTH OF I-80.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SSWRLY WINDS
AROUND 10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING
AFTER SUNSET. AROUND MIDNIGHT A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LLWS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS/MCGREW
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...DAVIS/MCGREW
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