153
FXUS63 KGID 210812
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
- WINDY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 35-50MPH.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-65%) ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND-
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LIGHT. THIS
RAIN WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
THE WEST TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. FOG LOOKS
TO DEVELOP INITIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT EXPANDS INTO
FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE
IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSER FOG
(VISIBILITY AROUND 1 MILE), BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF THE
LOWEST VISIBILITY FOG IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. EVEN IN A MORE
DENSE SCENARIO, FOG LOOKS TO BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO AVOID HEADLINE
ISSUANCE. ANY FOG WOULD DISSIPATE/CLEAR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS. A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING IS THE GREATEST.
AS TROUGHING LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH
FAVORS WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY HELPING TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (45-65%) ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS WAVE/TROUGH, RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY. RAIN
COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS TROUGHING MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER KANSAS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS ARE INCREASING OUT
OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE (15% TO 20% CHANCE)
INTO THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH)
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH) OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLIGHTLY (BY AROUND 1 TO 3
DEGREES) FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY (HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S). WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH (GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 50 MPH).
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE (UP TO AROUND 50% TO 70% CHANCE) BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 50S (ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES THIS DAY).
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY (UP
TO 30% TO 40% CHANCE). LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 40S ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS
MAY COOL INTO THE 30S (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR-IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN FOG AT KEAR AROUND SUNRISE, OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE ALONG AND WEST OF KEAR. IT'S
POSSIBLE THE FOG REMAINS JUST WEST OF KEAR, THOUGH THERE'S
ENOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AT LEAST SOME FOG. VISIBILITY
IS ALSO UNCERTAIN AS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME DENSER FOG
POTENTIAL, THOUGH MAINLY WEST OF KEAR. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VIS 3+
MILES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT NEEDING TO AMEND IF FOG BECOMES MORE
DENSE. THE TIME MOST FAVORED FOR FOG WOULD BE 11-15Z. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD WITH
GUSTS BELOW 15KTS. FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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