673
FXUS63 KGID 210502
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1202 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-25%) THIS EVENING NORTH
OF I80 AND FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 3-8AM.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN
HAZARDS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH PEAK TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IN THE 80S-90S.
- PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
TODAY
WEAK CONVERGENCE AMID THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGHS TO INCREASE INTO THE 80S-LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT IS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALONG THE
MN/CANADIAN BORDER, SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD, POTENTIALLY FORCING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 4PM, SUGGESTED BY EARLIER MODEL
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE IT GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. IN FACT, RECENT
HRRR AND RRFS GUIDANCE HAST THIS FRONT STALLING OUT IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA, KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO NORTH OF I80.
SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM FORM, CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG
AND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS COULD ALLOW SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.
TOMORROW (FRIDAY)
WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FOG AS THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE COVERAGE OF THESE EVENING
STORMS AND IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR FOR SUFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
(15-25%) FOR THE NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
BETWEEN 3-8AM DUE TO SOME WEAK WAA ADVECTION AT 850 MB. A FEW OF
THESE MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR AND DRY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW DURING THE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AROUND 6-
8PM, CONGEALING INTO A COMPLEX SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AS MODELS ARE INDICATING 2500+
J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 45+ KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONAL OFF AND ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROADER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD, MOST
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, AND IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AFTER SUNSET. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE ABOUT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS
OVERALL FAVOR TWO DIFFERENT WAVES OF STORMS, ONE 12-20Z AND
ANOTHER AFTER 00Z. IT IS PLAUSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP IN STORMS BUT GIVEN OVERALL UNCERTAINTY, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OMITTED FROM THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LARGELY SOUTHEASTERLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCOTT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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