982
FXUS63 KGID 150020
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
620 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-60 MPH. A HIGH WIND
WATCH CONTINUES FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS REACH 55-60 MPH.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONCERN.
- COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS OF NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAINLY SOME OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES SEEING WIND
CHILLS DOWN AROUND -10 FRI NIGHT-SAT AM AND SAT NIGHT-SUN AM
- LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE (15% TO NEAR 30% CHANCE) FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE
SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE MID 40S AND WINDS ARE MAKING THE
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) FEEL LIKE THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH TO WEST TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND IT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
BUT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FRIDAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ST. PAUL TO KEARNEY TO
BEAVER CITY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (15% TO 30% CHANCE) ON
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. ONE MODEL IS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER IS INDICATING FRIDAY AND YET ANOTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING
FROM AROUND -15 TO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA AND GUSTY, NORTHERLY WINDS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
FREEZING. WIND CHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0
TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 12 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0 TO AROUND/SLIGHTLY BELOW -10
DEGREES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BRIEF WARM UP (INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY,
NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WITH PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S. A BIT OF A WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WITH SOUTH TO WEST WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF
WARMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS PRODUCING A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND PRECIPITATION-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY KEAR COULD
SEE A LINGERING LOW-VFR CEILING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING). CERTAINLY THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (GUSTS
25+KT LIKELY).
- CEILING DETAILS:
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COMMONLY NEAR/ABOVE 20K FT. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST THESE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, A NARROW, NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED AXIS OF LOW-VFR CLOUDS WITH AN OCCASIONAL CEILING
AROUND 3.500 FT. AGL WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING KEAR, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN FLIRT WITH KGRI BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING.
- WIND DETAILS:
BY FAR THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AWAY THIS
EVENING AS A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROVIDES VERY LIGHT
SPEEDS/VARIABLE DIRECTION. LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, BUT
LIKELY STAYING AT-OR-BELOW 11KT THROUGH AROUND 16Z. HOWEVER,
SPEEDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES, WITH A FAIRLY RAPID
TRANSITION TO WESTERLY-THEN-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 16-19Z, ALONG
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20KT/GUSTS AT LEAST
20-25KT. FINALLY, SPEEDS WILL EASE TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD AROUND 23Z.
ONE ONE FINAL WIND-RELATED NOTE, SOME MARGINALLY-STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD DEVELOP MAINLY 15-18Z DURING THE
FAIRLY BRIEF TIME FRAME DURING WHICH WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
1-2K FT AGL INCREASE A BIT AHEAD OF THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN POST-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER, WITH OVERALL LLWS
STRENGTH/DURATION CURRENTLY LOOKING A BIT MARGINAL FOR TAF
INCLUSION, WILL FOREGO ANY INTRODUCTION AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MANY
UPCOMING DAYS:
- THURSDAY:
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY FROM
DAWSON TO FURNAS COUNTIES AND PHILLIPS AND ROOKS COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THESE
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 25% WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH.
- FRIDAY:
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE SAME
AREAS AS THURSDAY PLUS PORTIONS OF SMITH AND OSBORNE COUNTIES.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 25% IN THESE
AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS DESCRIBED FOR
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 15% TO 25% ON SATURDAY.
WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPROVE SOME ON
SUNDAY, BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS MAY STILL GET DOWN TO
AROUND 25% WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
HUMIDITY AND WINDS WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY SO FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULDT
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