651
FXUS63 KGID 161141
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL/RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
- THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY W OF HWY 281, MAY EXPERIENCE *EXTREME* FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
- MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
***FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME/HIGH-
END CONDITIONS, ARE DISCUSSED IN DETAIL BELOW.***
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY - CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY A MILD
START TO THE DAY. A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND BOUTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME AREAS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S, EVEN AT 4AM
(ON FEBRUARY 16TH!). FORTUNATELY, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT DURING PEAK
HEATING TODAY, LIKELY LESS THAN 10 MPH AREA WIDE, SO NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S THROUGH
THE LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WARMEST - SOME MAY SAY EVEN
HOT - DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRIGGERS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITHIN A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE/DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS, MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE VIRGA, IF IT DEVELOPS AT
ALL...SO NOT REALLY WORTH EVEN ADDING SPRINKLES JUST YET.
WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND THE RETURN OF WINTER ON THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW,
PERHAPS EVEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW, FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, APPEARS OUR NEBRASKA
ZONES, PARTICULARLY THOSE ALONG/N OF I-80, HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR WINTER IMPACTS. AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON USUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS THAT ARE JUST FAR FAR OUT TO DETAIL AT THIS
TIME. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, AS
WELL, WHICH COULD ENHANCE IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON DENOTES THE ONSET OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS RESULT, SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WINDS HAVE HELPED PUMP IN A
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS. A SECONDARY RESURGENCE OF THESE 20-30MPH WIND
GUSTS MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS CALMING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. ALOFT, A GENTLE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP THINGS MORE STABLE,
ASSISTING ON KEEPING THE PERIOD (THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON) DRY AND
WARM (ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SUBSIDENCE). BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45+MPH) AS A
AROUND 990MB SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT (ADIABATIC WARMING) AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES (DIURNAL WARMING) MAY HELP HIGHS EASILY REACH THE MID
70S TO EVEN POTENTIALLY THE LOW 80S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS (40-80%
CHANCES). THESE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WILL FEEL UNNATURAL FOR
FEBRUARY AS TEMPERATURES RACE TOWARDS RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS RECORD BREAKING HEAT, PLEASE REFER TO
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. IN ADDITION, THE RETURN OF BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGHER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE FULL AREA FOR BETWEEN NOON AND 8PM. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN SHAKE UP WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT, TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKING
SURFACE LOW, LAUNCHES ON THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, WE
RETAIN ONLY 10-40% POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL IN ALL LIKELINESS
BE MINIMAL AND NOT WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
TUMBLING OF TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY TAKE A 30-40 DEGREE SLIDE ACROSS THE PERIOD (FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S DOWN TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S). A POWERING CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ROAMING JET ALOFT WILL ALSO WORK TO STIR UP THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOCALLY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY (10-40% CHANCES)
AND FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING (30-40% CHANCES). DUE TO
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN LONG-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE
(GFS/ECMWF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY), AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO
POPS RESIDE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO POPS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY FAVOR MORE MODEST QUANTITIES (<0.2" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT).
GIVEN THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, SNOW WILL
BECOME THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
WE DO NOT INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN TOTAL. AS OF NOW THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FAVORS OUR
NORTHERN MOST AREAS. OUR GENERAL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PERIOD BECOMES CLOSER
IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. SERLY WINDS AROUND 7-11KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DESPITE SOME AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY 183 DIPPING BELOW 20
PERCENT RH THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS UNDERNEATH A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MINIMAL FOR TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS (GUSTING 30-45+ MPH) AND
VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR (RHS DIPPING TO AS LOW AS 10-20%) ON A
RATHER "TEXTBOOK" FIRE WEATHER DAY TO THE E OF A DEEPENING LEE
TROUGH. IN FACT, AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND W OF HWY 183 MAY EVEN
SEE CONDITIONS RELATIVELY RARE "EXTREME" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SET UP FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING IN
WHICH RHS DIP TO ONLY ~10%, AND SW-W GUSTS RANGE FROM 40 TO
PERHAPS 45-50 MPH. AS SUCH, THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS INTRODUCED AN "EXTREME" DELINEATION JUST TO OUR W,
AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXPANDED EASTWARD A FEW
COUNTIES IN THE OUTLOOK UPDATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 7PM
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FULL AREA, AND A CONVERSION TO A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. THE END TIME MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS CRITICAL
CRITERIA IS STILL BEING MET IN THE LATEST FORECAST GRIDS AS LATE
AS 10-11PM. WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO W LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, AND WE'LL BE COMING OFF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, BOTH
FACTORS OF WHICH WILL REALLY DELAY THE USUAL LATE DAY IMPROVEMENT.
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR MINIMUM RHS AS LOW AS 15-20%, AND GIVEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP MIXING, COULD SEE WIND GUSTS REACH 20-25
MPH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A MARGINAL DAY - RELATIVELY
SPEAKING...BUT COMING OFF OF THE VERY DANGEROUS DAY ON TUESDAY,
WORTH NOTING THAT ANY FIRES THAT START ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
APPROACHED/BROKEN AT VARIOUS POINTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR BOTH
GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT (RECORDS BACK TO 1896) AND HASTINGS AIRPORT
(RECORDS BACK TO 1908).
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST/OBSERVED*
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 16: 73 IN 2017 / 1921 | 70
FEB. 17: 72 IN 2017 | 78
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 16: 74 IN 2017 | 69
FEB. 17: 74 IN 1981 | 78
- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 16: 38 IN 2011 | 37
FEB. 17: 41 IN 1981 | 43
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 16: 39 IN 2011 | 38
FEB. 17: 37 IN 1972 | 43
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...THIES
CLIMATE...STUMP/THIES
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