983
FXUS63 KGID 111728
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY NEAR TERM RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS OVER 6-8 COUNTIES, WITH HAIL AS THE MAIN
HAZARD.
- WINDY AND DRIER TODAY, AFTER THE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS,
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
- LITTLE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE WISE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT WILL BE COOLER ON THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS/STORM CHANCE FAVORING LATER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
- MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES BY MID NEXT WEEK AND TRENDING A
BIT DRIER OVERALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A NICE UPPER TROUGH ROUNDING ITS
WAY INTO NORTHERN WYOMING. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE QUICKLY EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND BE THE CATALYST THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD (EARLY THURSDAY MORNING). AFTER THAT, GENERALLY
SPEAKING, A TEPID NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
FORECAST ROUNDS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES BY MID NEXT WEEK.
EARLY TODAY, WE AWAIT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOW IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO PUSH NORTH INTO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. AS THAT
UPPER WAVE AND A FAVORABLE H250 JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, THEY WILL TAP INTO STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND TRIGGER
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 3 AM OR SO. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
VARIETY IN HI-RES MODELS IN TERMS OF INTENSITY/LOCATION OF
THE STORMS, THROUGH THE OVERALL TREND OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
ROUGHLY ALONG/NEAR HIGHWAY 6 AND I-80, AND CLOSER TO THE
HASTINGS/GRAND ISLAND AREAS. STRONG SHEAR, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
(EVENTUALLY) AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
RAPID DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG/SEVERE
QUICKLY. THE MAIN RISK IS LARGE HAIL AROUND 2" IN DIAMETER, THOUGH
SOME STONES COULD BE BIGGER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAINLY FROM TRAINING OF STORMS AS THEY LAYOUT IN AN EAST-
WEST FASHION. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT A PRETTY QUICK EASTWARD MOVE AND
ONLY 2-3 HOURS OF MORE INTENSE STORMS BEFORE THEY PUSH EAST OF
YORK/FILLMORE/POLK COUNTIES BY 5-6 AM. THIS IS A VERY LIMITED AREA
EVENT, MAYBE 6-8 COUNTIES, BUT COULD BE BRIEFLY INTENSE. ONCE THOSE
STORMS MOVE EAST, WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW GATHERING ITSELF
IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE MARKED BY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT ALSO
SOLIDIFYING A RETURN TO DRIER AIR AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY AND BACK
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL
DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT BUT REBOUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S BEFORE THE NEXT COOL DOWN.
SATURDAY BRINGS A SHARP CHANGE WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING QUICKLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN
THE DAY. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S IS LOWERED WITH TIME AS A STIFF NORTH
WIND USHERS IN A NICE JUNE COOL DOWN. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY WOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 MORESO THAN WEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
OVERALL RAIN CHANCE AS SOME MODELS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION,
WHILE OTHERS LINGER PRECIPITATION DEEPER INTO THE DAY. THAT
UNCERTAINTY TRANSLATES TO LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHEAST OF
A GENEVA TO SMITH CENTER LINE. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE
EUROPEAN MODEL, REALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH AND TAKE THE
STRONG/SEVERE STORM RISK INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. RIGHT NOW,
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY KIND OF SPLITS THE MIDDLE OF EVERYTHING
(EXCEPT THE STIFF BREEZE) SO EXPECT FINE-TUNING OF THE SPECIFIC
DETAILS TO EMERGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
POST FRONTAL, SUNDAY LOOKS LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY FOR MOST AREAS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS (LOW 40S) AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THE LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. ANY TIME WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS TIME
OF YEAR, THE RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LIKE
ITS ALWAYS THERE, EVEN WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THAT LOOKS LIKE THE CASE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD SPARK THOSE SHOWERS. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT SMALL CHANCE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED AGAIN IF MORE OF THE AREA SHARES IN THOSE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
TECHNICALLY THE FORECAST IS DRY AFTER SUNDAY, THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA INTO
TUESDAY. JUST THROWING THAT OUT THERE, MAINLY FOR MONDAY AS SOME
MID-RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE A "SPRINKLY" POTENTIAL. WE SHOULD START
A LIMITED WARMUP MONDAY AND TUESDAY BY GETTING BACK TO NORMAL.
AFTER THAT, UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SUGGESTING A DRIER TREND AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING BACK INTO THE
90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CURRENTLY...
AFTER A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER RESULTING IN A NOTABLE SWATH OF
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY EVENING...TODAY HAS BROUGHT A MUCH MORE QUIET
DAY. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...SET UP ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AT
THE SURFACE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDING EAST IS PUSHING A
SURFACE COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
LATEST OBS SHOWING IT HAVING MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT REALLY A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
COOLER AIR WITH THIS FRONT...IT'S MORE NOTABLE FEATURES ARE THE
SWITCH TO AT TIMES GUSTY NW WINDS AND A DROP IN DEWPOINTS. WE
WERE SITTING UNDER WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT
THIS TIME TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN
THE 40S-50S. SATELLITE SHOWING NO SHORTAGE OF SUN ACROSS THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME CU DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING REMAINING
SE OF THE FORECAST AREA, ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO MO/IA...AND
THAT'S WHAT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN OVER THE LAST
HOUR.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
OVERALL, HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OVERALL
THINKING...WITH THE EVENING HOURS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO/MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE OF MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.
MODELS SHOWING THIS LLJ RAMPING UP TO AROUND 45-50KTS...WITH
THE BEST CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG ITS NOSE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HI-RES MODELS HAVE VARIED SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
TIMING...WITH MOST FAVORING ANYTIME AFTER 06- 07Z. ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LOCATION/COVERAGE...MOST MODELS HAVE
KEPT THE BETTER POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW JUST A TOUCH
FURTHER SOUTH (CLOSER TO HWY 6) AND WEST (AT LEAST ISOLATED BACK
INTO OUR WESTERN FRINGES). EXPECTATION THAT ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE, WITH MODELS SHOWING MUCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG PUSHING NORTH WITH TIME AND GOOD
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR...AND MOSTLY LIKELY REMAINING ELEVATED SET UP
NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY NEAR/LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS), DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY 12-15Z...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS NNERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST. ONCE IT DOES...THE FORECAST DRIES OUT
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY ON INTO FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING
NORTHWESTELRY FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...TURNING MORE ZONAL ON FRIDAY ACROSS A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CONUS, SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SRN TX BUT SPREAD OUT BOTH EAST AND WEST...AND A LARGER
LOW/BROAD TOUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A REINFORCING SFC COOL
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURS
AM...USHERING IN STRONGER NW WINDS FOR THE DAY ON THURS AND
COOLER TEMPS. GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S-LOW 80S. THOSE GUSTY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH
WARMER TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.
AT LEAST PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DRIVING THEM ISN'T THE HIGHEST AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST TO BRING CHANCES IN ALREADY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...WITH QUESTIONS THEN
ARISING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AND IF THAT COULD IMPACT AT LEAST
SERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPC DAY 4 15 PERCENT AREA CURRENTLY
CLIPS OUR SE AREAS...WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES KEEP GENERALLY LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH THINGS POTENTIALLY
DRYING OUT MID-WEEK. TEMPS SAT THROUGH WED ARE UP AND
DOWN...WITH 80S-90S SAT DROPPING INTO THE LOW- MID 70S FOR SUN-
MON, CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S-90S FOR WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. AS THE SUN SETS AND MIXING
DECREASES, SO SHOULD THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE. BY
MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 10-18KTS. SKIES ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MORITZ
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
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