455  
FXUS63 KGID 210809  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM/PREDAWN HOURS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT  
HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND WAS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST KS AS OF 07Z. COOLER AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S WERE  
ADVECTING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN NEB. EARLY NIGHT  
CONVECTION INITIATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO/WESTERN KS  
AND THE WESTERN COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS BEEN WORKING EASTWARD  
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, AND ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS  
OCCURRED ALONG/NORTH OF THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS  
CENTRAL NEB.  
 
THE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR  
SOUTH BEFORE DAYBREAK, HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL  
DECENT AROUND 2500 J/KG ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS  
MORNING. SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN MORE MARGINAL AT 25-30KTS...BUT  
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY  
INTO FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AND AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE  
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AROUND  
TWO INCHES. WE HAVE SOME FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY  
TOPPING AN INCH PRIMARILY IN THE PLATTE AND LOUP BASINS AND WILL  
NEED TO MONITOR WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS SET UP TODAY.  
 
THE HRRR MODEL IS HANDLING THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION  
FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING AND KEEPS A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP  
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE  
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS  
WITH READINGS ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUDS AND HOW LONG PRECIP  
LINGERS. AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS  
SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WITH SOME 80S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.  
 
THE MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS  
EVENING WITH ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WINDING DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT WILL  
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL  
FILTER SOUTH WITH DPS IN THE 50S. TEMPS ARE SET TO AVERAGE IN THE  
50S FOR LOWS WHICH WE'VE SEEN VERY LITTLE OF YET THIS JULY.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY QUIET WEATHERWISE. THE  
DRY, COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF  
THE WEEK (MON/TUES) IN BETWEEN A WESTERN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
ROCKIES AND AN EASTERN TROUGH FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  
FOR THOSE WANTING TO GIVE AIR CONDITIONERS A BREAK...DAYTIME TEMPS  
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S, WITH READINGS AT NIGHT DROPPING INTO  
THE 50S.  
 
FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO  
THE 80S FOR HIGHS IN A MODERATING MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS AS THE  
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EAST BUT DAMPENS DUE TO A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
STATES. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN PRETTY MINIMAL FOR THE UPCOMING  
WORKWEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SMALL  
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURS/FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. VCTS, DECIDED  
TO PUSH BACK TIMING IN THE TAFS FOR VCTS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
CURRENTLY SHOWING IT AROUND THE 12Z TIME FRAME. A FEW SHOWERS ARE  
STARTING TO FORM ON RADAR SO WILL KEEP ON IT AND WILL AMEND IF TS  
LOOKING TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE  
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OCNL GUSTS TO 18-20KTS  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FAY  
LONG TERM...FAY  
AVIATION...BEDA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NE Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page