433
FXUS63 KGID 241128
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECTING MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY TO BE DRY, WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE,
WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. LATE THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING, POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME BEING STRONG-SEVERE, LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
- MEMORIAL DAY IS SIMILAR, EXPECTING MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE
QUIET, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE, AS
FORCING/SHEAR IS WEAKER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-NEAR 90 ARE
EXPECTED.
- THE REST OF THE WEEK HAS PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CONUS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENTLY...
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS,
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
SET UP OVER THE ROCKIES/WEST COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPED LATE SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING AND MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT WANED IN INTENSITY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, AND HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED ALTOGETHER. QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS CONTINUE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS WE SIT
BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH AXIS
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT IT REMAINS A WEAKER SET UP, SO
WINDS ARE AROUND 5-10 MPH.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE
DRY...WITH PLENTY OF SUN AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOWING THAT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...A TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. AS WE
GET INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS, THERE WILL
BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN KS/NE. BECAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINING ON THE
SCATTERED SIDE OF THINGS...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITH JUST HOW
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS ULTIMATELY IMPACTED. THOSE
DIFFERENCES ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BROAD
IN NATURE, AND ON THE LOWER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO
REACH/EXCEED 1500 J/KG BY LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
ON THE LOWER SIDE, GENERALLY 25-35 KTS. SPC'S DAY 1 MARGINAL
RISK AREA COVERS THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE HAIL (ESP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WITH MORE INSTABILITY) AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS SHOULD BRING A DIMINISHING TREND TO ACTIVITY...DO
HAVE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT DRY.
MEMORIAL DAY...
MONDAY IN MANY WAYS LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...WITH MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS ENDING UP DRY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM THE GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW TODAY TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...AS ONE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE DESERT SW AND ANOTHER APPROACHES
THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE, WE REMAIN SET UP EAST OF THAT TROUGH
AXIS...KEEPING WINDS SOUTHERLY, AND AGAIN POTENTIALLY GUSTY.
WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, MODELS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S WORKING THEIR WAY INTO MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S-NEAR 90. AGAIN FROM MID- AFTERNOON ON (PEAK
HEATING)...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. MODELS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEING PRETTY
WEAK...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE STORMS MAY
FIRE/PLACEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARIES. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE/EVOLUTION OF ANY ACTIVITY...DUE TO THE
WEAK FORCING, BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR BEING
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY...PERHAPS ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 20-25
KTS. ADMITTEDLY, THE CURRENT FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
PRETTY BROAD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY/MID EVENING...LIKELY TO
BE TRIMMED ON THE EASTERN EDGE DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS TREND.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE...BUT THE WEAK FORCING/SHEAR KEEPS THE SEVERE
THREAT LOW, AND THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN THE
GENERAL THUNDER MENTION. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WHATEVER STORMS DO
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TUESDAY ON...
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD UNFORTUNATELY STILL HAS PLENTY OF
DETAILS TO IRON OUT AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT SHOWING THE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS BECOMING DOMINATED BY A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN POTENTIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
NV/UT/ID BORDER AREA AROUND 12Z. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MESSY ONE...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWARD FROM THE SERN CONUS INTO THE
MN/WESTERN DAKOTAS AREA, BLOCKED BY LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCING THE NERN CONUS...WHILE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND ON, IS
REALLY LOW...HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE NBM WITH THE DIFFERENCES TO IRON OUT IN THIS
PATTERN'S EVOLUTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS IS BUBBLING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
NEBRASKA AND DOWN INTO NW KANSAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY, SHEAR IS
PRETTY LACKLUSTER, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW STORMS TO COALESCE INTO ONE
OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS. INSTABILITY FALLS OFF QUICKLY INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA/KANSAS, THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS, THESE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING (EVIDENCED ON HRRR GUST
OUTPUT) AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
SUNDAY WILL TREND NOTICABLY WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WE SEE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA
MAKING A RUN AT 90 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT, UNLIKE TODAY, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35KT WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL THREAT, AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL. NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA IS NOW IN A
"MARGINAL" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK AREA.
OVERALL, MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY TO BE MORE
ISOLATED. THEREFORE, SPC HAS NOT INTRODUCED A SEVERE OUTLOOK.
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS,
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE
DETAILS ON TIMING ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THE MOMENT. AT THIS
TIME, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MAY THE GEFS CSU-MLP SEVERE
PROBS REMAIN LESS THAN 5% EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LATE
TODAY-EARLY EVENING...SO KEPT THE PROB30 MENTION GOING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TERMINAL SITES SEEING ANY IMPACT IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAIN SOUTHERLY...BY
LATE MORNING GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND LOOK TO
CONTINUE ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT BOTH SITES FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ON THROUGH
THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ADP
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