749
FXUS63 KGID 131107
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING (MAINLY SW OF
THE TRI-CITIES), DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WARM
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S!
- OVERALL BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (WHICH LOOK TO BE RAIN),
STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF-THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25-0.5 LIE ACROSS AREAS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
- THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
MAIN RAIN BAND - SOME SHORT-TERM HI-RES GUIDANCE (06Z HRRR) IS
MUCH DRIER THAN GLOBAL MODELS (00Z ECMWF).
- EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SUN- TUE, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY. TUE
NIGHT-THU BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TO THE REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW (20-30
PERCENT) AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MAIN THING TO WATCH IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (NEXT 12-18 HOURS)
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE W/SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE INDICATES A
HEALTHY BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT - AND THERE ARE SOME RETURNS
ON RADAR, AS WELL. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY
AIR TO DEAL WITH IN THE LOWEST 5K FT - AS EVIDENT BY 00Z LBF
OBSERVED SOUNDING AND LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR HDE AND
LXN. THUS, ONLY EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO A FEW SPRINKLES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA WIDE!
EVEN BETTER IS THAT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNUSUALLY LIGHT FOR
SUCH WARM TEMPS IN FEBRUARY AT ONLY 5-10 MPH. SO IT'LL BE QUITE
PLEASANT MID FEBRUARY WEATHER THAT COMES W/O FIRE WX CONCERNS.
BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON-TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS
S OF I-80. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND S OF THE
NE/KS STATE LINE...BUT EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE EVENT, SOME
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW FAR N THE MAIN SHIELD
OF RAIN (RAIN! ON THE NW SIDE OF A SYSTEM IN MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY!...BUT I DIGRESS) WILL EXTEND. 06Z HRRR IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER COMPARED TO GLOBAL OUTPUT SUCH AS EPS AND GFS. ENSEMBLE
DATA APPEARS TO LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER HRRR IDEA, AS THE 00Z EPS
PROBABILITIES FOR >0.50" ARE ONLY ~30% IN OUR FAR S TIER OF
COUNTIES. THERE'S ALSO A VERY SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT NOTED IN
THE PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR
FROM TODAY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. SO...WILL CALL FOR A TRACE
TO QUARTER INCH FOR COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE...TO AROUND 0.25-0.50" FOR ROOKS, OSBORNE AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES IN KS. AGAIN, DESPITE IT BEING MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY, HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS EVENT WILL BE ALL RAIN AS THERE'S SIMPLY NO
COLD AIR TO WORK WITH, AND THE SYSTEM IS TOO OPEN/WEAK TO "MAKE"
IT'S OWN COLD AIR.
SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A RUN INTO THE 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW CONTINUED GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SITTING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
BROAD RIDGING SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
ELSEWHERE, TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING THAT
OUTSIDE A FEW PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SLIDING THROUGH,
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OUTSIDE OF A
SWITCH TO MORE NWRLY WINDS, IT'S NOT HAVING MUCH OF AN IMPACT.
SEEING A HANDFUL OF AUTOMATED SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING CLOSER TO 20 MPH, BUT OTHERWISE SPEEDS ARE
MAINLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WORKING OUT AS
EXPECTED, HIGHS BY THE TIME THE DAY IS DONE LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 FOR MOST SPOTS.
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT. A
FEW MODELS STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPRINKLES TO GET CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT WITHOUT MORE SUPPORT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND KEPT
THE MENTION OUT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BRINGING MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING THEIR WAY IN
WITH TIME...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 20S IN THE FAR NORTH TO RIGHT AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
MAIN STORY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO IMPACT THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS
OVER THE PAST 24HR HOURS...WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION STILL BEING
HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CAN REACH. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CA/NV BORDER MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY DRY.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SW-NE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WINDS WILL BE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 60 EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SPREADING EAST AND NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL/500MB LOW
TRACKING EAST LONG THE OK/TX BORDER...BUT STILL HAVE VARIATIONS
OF HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION GETS, TIED CLOSER TO THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTING AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MORE NORTHERN-MOST SIDE OF THE REACH,
BRINGING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO I-80...AND IT DOES HAVE
SOME SUPPORT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (60+ PERCENT) REMAIN CONFINED
TO COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE INCREASED CHANCES CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT UP INTO THE TRI-
CITIES/I-80 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA, THE ECMWF IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE/HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 0.1 IN OR MORE, WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS SHOWING 50 PERCENT OR MORE HAVING SHIFTED
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ROW OF OUR NE COUNTIES....THE GFS ISN'T
AS HIGH. THE PROBABILITIES OF 0.5 IN OR MORE TOP OUT MAINLY IN
THE 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR KS COUNTIES. CURRENT HIGHEST
FORECAST TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.1-0.3 INCH RANGE FOR OUR
SOUTHERN NE ROW OF COUNTIES, WITH 0.25-0.5 ACROSS OUR KS
COUNTIES. TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
ROUGHLY IN THE 09- 18Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME...COMING TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THOSE RAIN CHANCES...LOW
50S POSSIBLE ACROSS KS, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 NOT OF THE
QUESTION UP AROUND ORD, WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT NEARLY AS
GOOD.
SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...
OVERALL, NOT REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ONTO THE
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM, WITH ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...THE LACK OF ANY DISTURBANCES KEEPING
THINGS DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS SHOWING
LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT CROSSING THE REGION,
BRINGING SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (MOSTLY 20 PERCENT).
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY TIMING/TRACK DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT. MODELS STILL SHOWING WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE MID-
WEEK TROUGHING/DISTURBANCES...LOT OF LOW-MID 60S FOR SUN-MON,
MORE UPPER 60S-NEAR 70 FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. 50S START WORKING
THEIR WAY BACK IN FOR WED-THU.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 6-8KTS AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN
CEILINGS BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MAY ARRIVE
1-2 HOURS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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