611
FXUS63 KGID 021228
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
728 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
.
.AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR FORECAST REMAINS ALL BUT "GUARANTEED" DRY THROUGH MONDAY
DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH OUR ENTIRE AREA BACK INTO SEASONABLY-HOT TERRITORY
FOR MONDAY. FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX UNDER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR ESPECIALLY TUES-WED, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL CLIMB BACK TO HOTTER WEATHER THAT REALLY ARRIVES
NEXT WEEKEND AND PROBABLY LASTING BEYOND THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
- RAINFALL-WISE: STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING OUR HIGHEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOOKING MORE
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE (VERSUS WIDESPREAD), SO RAIN TOTALS WILL
SURELY BE PLENTY VARIABLE.
- DURING THIS SAME MON NIGHT-WED TIME FRAME, THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS EVEN LIMITED
SEVERE?), BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD END UP BEING A
LIMITING FACTOR, AND AT LEAST FOR NOW SPC HAS NOT "OUTLOOKED"
ANY OF OUR CWA WITH A FORMAL SEVERE RISK CATEGORY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH NOTING/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/THINGS
WORTH MENTIONING BEYOND THE FIRST 48 HOURS:
- IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST, PROBABLY ONE OF THE
BIGGER THINGS TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS STILL PLENTY TO DO AS
FAR AS DECIPHERING THE "FINER DETAILS" OF THE VARIOUS
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT- WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY). WHILE PARTS OF OUR CWA WILL SURELY SEE
DECENT RAIN, THE OVERALL-SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RATHER VARIABLE TOTALS. EVEN THE AREAL
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST FAVORED HIGHER RAINFALL IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE. WHILE THE LATEST "OFFICIAL" QPF (RAIN AMOUNT)
FORECASTS CURRENTLY FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA FOR
HIGHEST TOTALS(LEAVING OUR KS COUNTIES LARGELY DRY), SOME
MODELS (INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM AND HIGHER-RES RRFS ACTUALLY
SUGGEST THAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES COULD ACTUALLY FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
AGGRESSIVELY THE INCOMING COLD FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SHUNT
FORCING/INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD VERSUS KEEPING IT FARTHER NORTH.
AGAIN, PLENTY OF QUESTIONS HERE.
- KEEPING WITH THE EARLY-MID WEEK RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
WHILE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY "OUTLOOKED" BY SPC YET FOR EVEN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, THIS FORECASTER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER OUTLOOKS ASSIGN A MARGINAL TO AT
LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. "OLD
SCHOOL" SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE STORM PROBS SUGGEST THAT
ESPECIALLY TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD HOLD SOME LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW EFFICIENTLY THE
AIRMASS CAN DESTABILIZE/RECOVER FROM WHAT COULD BE QUITE A BIT
OF LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY MON NIGHT-TUES AM.
- SHIFTING TO THE END OF THE CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST (AND
BEYOND), FORECAST HIGH TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WENT UP A GOOD 5
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS (NOW CALLING FOR WIDESPREAD 90S MOST
AREAS AND EVEN AROUND 100 FAR SOUTHWEST). THIS APPEARS TO
REPRESENT THE START OF A MULTI-DAY HOTTER STRETCH THAT COULD
LAST WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK PER LATEST LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE (SUCH AS ECMWF ENSEMBLE) AND AS EVIDENCED BY A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON CPC'S LATEST 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK.
-- NOW FOCUSING SOLELY ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS
(THROUGH MON NIGHT-EARLY TUES AM):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
AS FULLY EXPECTED, A VERY TRANQUIL AND SLIGHTLY-SEASONABLY-COOL
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HAS UNFOLDED, WITH LOW TEMPS ON TRACK TO
BOTTOM OUT A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 MOST PLACES. IN THE
BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
RESIDES UNDER NEARLY DUE-NORTHERLY FLOW...RESULTING FROM BEING
LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING HIGH/RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND TO THE WEST OF A
DEEP/LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A ROUGHLY 1015 MILLIBAR RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
SITS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER US, PROMOTING VERY LIGHT TO ALMOST
CALM BREEZES IN MOST AREAS. UNDER ESSENTIALLY PRISTINELY CLEAR
SKIES, THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR NOT ONLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SEASONABLY-COOL TEMPS, BUT ALSO A GOOD RECIPE
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY/SHALLOW FOG...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
NORTHEAST 2/3RD OF OUR CWA WHERE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
OVERALL- HIGHEST. BETWEEN NOW AND 8-9 AM, PATCHY FOG COULD
PERSIST OR YET DEVELOP...PERHAPS BECOMING DENSE AND REDUCING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 1/4 MILE ON A VERY LOCALIZED BASIS.
WITH ANY TRULY DENSE FOG LIKELY BEING VERY SPARSE IN COVERAGE,
THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR A FORMAL ADVISORY, BUT DID OPT TO TOSS A
MENTION INTO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
- TODAY:
DESPITE THE COOLISH START, REALLY THE BIGGEST STORY TODAY WILL
BE A DECENT (GENERALLY 5-8 DEGREE) WARM-UP VERSUS YESTERDAY, AS
WARMER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT 88-93 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA, BUT AS
HIGH AS 95-97 MAINLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT WORST,
ALTHOUGH LIKE YESTERDAY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF HIGH-LEVEL SMOKY HAZE FROM WILDFIRES MAINLY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADA, AND THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A
LITTLE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST (MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON). AT THE SURFACE, BREEZES WILL VERY SLOWLY
INCREASE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE VERY LIGHT START, FIRST
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND THEN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG (ONLY A TOUCH BREEZY AT MOST), RANGING FROM
ONLY SUSTAINED 5-15 MPH/GUSTS 10-20 MPH...OVERALL- LIGHTEST IN
OUR SOUTHEAST CWA AND OVERALL-STRONGEST IN OUR WEST/NORTHWEST.
- TONIGHT:
IT REMAINS DRY UNDER ONLY SOME THIN/PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THE ONGOING EARLY
MORNING/LATE NIGHT IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP 5+
DEGREES WARMER (MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT MID 60S), DUE IN PART
TO STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES COMMONLY 6-13 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THESE STEADY BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP TO
HOLD FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
- MONDAY DAYTIME (THROUGH AROUND 7 PM):
THIS IS THE FINAL OF OUR GUARANTEED DRY PERIODS FOR A WHILE, AND
IT WILL ALSO BE OUR HOTTEST DAY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH BEING NOTICEABLY BREEZIER THAN TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO
A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CHARGING ACROSS MT
TOWARD THE DAKOTAS, SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL, KICKING UP
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS ANOTHER NOTCH. SUSTAINED SPEEDS MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 15-20 MPH/GUSTS 25-30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GET A ROUGHLY 3-5 DEGREE BOOST VERSUS THOSE OF
TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CWA REACHING THE LOW-MID 90S, AND UPPER
90S TO SLIGHTLY OVER 100 MORE COMMON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 1/4 OF
OUR CWA. FORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH (MAINLY
UPPER 50S-MID 60S) TO KEEP HEAT INDEX IN CHECK, BUT SOME OF OUR
FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD TAG 100 (SLIGHTLY SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA).
- MONDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
LEANING HEAVILY ON HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS HRRR/NAMNEST NOW
THAT IT'S GETTING WITHIN THEIR RANGE, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAINLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE
PICTURE. PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT, CONVECTION WILL FIRST ENTER ROUGHLY
THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF OUR CWA FROM THE WEST, LIKELY IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS IT "RUNS OUT OF STEAM" DUE TO DECREASING
INSTABILITY/WARM AIR ALOFT ETC. THAT BEING SAID, WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO (MAINLY WITH A GUSTY
WIND THREAT) BRUSHING INTO MAINLY THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST
FRINGES OF OUR CWA (SPC HAS KEPT THEIR OFFICIAL MARGINAL RISK
BARELY TO OUR NORTHWEST...FOCUSED MORE OVER THE SANDHILLS).
POST-MIDNIGHT, OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL BE PRONE TO AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LARGELY-WEAK STORMS
AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES THROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SLICES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA...TURNING WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, THE COOLER AIR REALLY WON'T BE TRULY
REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY DAYTIME, WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS
DROPPING NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BEEN A QUIET, PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS A WELL-AMPLIFIED ONE.
UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SHARPER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SANDWICHED BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW WITH NORTHWARD-
EXTENDING RIDGING AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING THAT OUTSIDE
OF A BIT OF SCATTERED LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AS WELL AS SOME
HIGHER-LEVEL THIN SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OFF TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST, CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OUT THERE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT LOOKING AT
ANY SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THAT SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES PUSHING EAST. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND
DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS (POTENTIALLY OUTRIGHT CALM) ARE EXPECTED TO BE.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, LOOKING LIKE MAINLY IN LOWER-
LYING AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY, NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, WHICH
REMAINS DRY. MODELS SHOWING CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE AREA...BUT OFF TO OUR WEST, A LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PAC
NW/WEST COAST, STARTING TO DAMPEN THE RIDGING. AS THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES PUSHING EAST, TROUGHING IS DEEPENING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, SPREADING THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTER WINDS
AREA-WIDE...FAR WESTERN AREAS COULD HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A
TOUCH WARMER...WITH MID-80S IN THE EAST TO LOW-90S FURTHER WEST.
NEW WORK WEEK...
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING NEW WORK WEEK IS THE TRANSITION
FROM AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO ONE THAT MORE ZONAL
IN NATURE.
MONDAY IS THE DAY WHERE THE BRUNT OF THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AS
MODELS SHOW THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL CANADA, AND THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTH WELL INTO THE ROCKIES. AN APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING IT NW OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, RESULTING FROM A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE EAST TO AROUND 100 IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING, THIS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE GIVEN THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS
BETTER FOCUSED TO THE NORTH. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MODELS
SHOW A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE
ALONG ITS EDGE REMAINING FOCUSED ALONG OUR NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THOSE LINGERING
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK IS DRIVEN BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN THAT ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE FLOW. MODELS
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING...WITH THE BETTER
OVERALL CHANCES FAVORING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE
UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE...AS THAT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF ANY SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES...WHICH COULD BE GREATLY IMPACTED BY ANY ACTIVITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. HARD TO HAVE TON OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FINER DETAILS THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME ONE GOES. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO...FORECAST HIGHS ARE COOLER MID-WEEK, WITH MORE
70S-80S FOR TUE-WED...WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 80S-90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OTHER THAN NO MORE THAN 60-90 MINUTES OF LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR VISIBILITY IN SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG (INCLUDED IN A TEMPO), THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS EXTREMELY-HIGH-CONFIDENCE VFR...WITH
ONLY LIMITED DEGREES OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. THE PERIOD IS
ALSO GUARANTEED TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE.
AS FOR SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE AN OVERALL-MINIMAL ISSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER STARTING OUT VERY LIGHT RIGHT AWAY
THIS MORNING, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS MOSTLY NO HIGHER THAN 10-12KT (SPORADIC HIGHER
GUSTS). VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT-EARLY MONDAY MORNING
(08-12Z), SOUTHERLY WIND RAMP UP WITHIN THE LOWEST 2K FT. AGL
ABOVE THE SURFACE, ALLOWING MODESTLY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS ONLY TO
KEAR, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN SHEAR MAGNITUDE BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT. AGL LEVEL REACHING AROUND 30KT. AT
LEAST FOR NOW, THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS LOOK SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT
KGRI, FALLING JUST SHORT OF TAF-INCLUSION CRITERIA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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