217
FXUS63 KGID 140600
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT (BUT BRIEF) WARMUP ARRIVES ON MONDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE) DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- COOLER WITH CONTINUED OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS FAVOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CLOUDS HAVE RESULTED IN A VERY COOL DAY FOR MOST OF NEBRASKA,
ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
KANSAS TO REACH THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND
OF WARM-AIR-ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED. THAT SAID,
CAMS GENERALLY SHOW THE HIGHEST COVERAGE REMAINING TO OUR EAST.
AT ANY RATE, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW THROUGH
TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THIS DOES PROVIDE A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE WILL ACTUALLY GET, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON THAT MOST AREAS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO 90S, AIDED BY FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS (GUSTS 30-35 MPH). SOUTHEASTERN AREAS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACH/EXCEED 100 DEGREES BRIEFLY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN, BUT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 5PM TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
STORM INTENSITY WILL WANE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER). THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
MIDLEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEB.
THIS PATTERN THEN REPEATS ITSELF THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
(UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) ON FRIDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHEST CHANCE (>50%) FOR OVER 1.00" OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TOTALS ARE REALIZED TO OUR EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER
LOW STRATUS COULD ENCROACH ON KGRI/KEAR BEFORE 13Z. A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED FOR KEAR AS PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500FT
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
COVERAGE OF THE LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE OVER KGRI, HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TEMPO. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO RAMP UP, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 45KT WITHIN
THE LOWEST 2000FT AGL. THE LLWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
AROUND 16Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. BREEZY WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, PEAKING DURING THE MID-TO- LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 28KTS AT KGRI AND 30KTS AT KEAR. WINDS SHIFT THROUGHOUT
THE DAY STARTING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY AND SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN AROUND
16Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...MCGREW
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