642
FXUS63 KGID 080534
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 TO 8PM.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT() AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG- MARGINALLY SEVERE.
- COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND CHANCES (20-60%) FOR RAIN MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS/CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DRY AIR HAS KEPT PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
80S AND 90S, WARMEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, JUST SHY OF
MEETING OUR "OFFICIAL" HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT STILL HOT AND
UNPLEASANT NONETHELESS. THE CUMULUS/SHOWERS MAY KEEP
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EXPECTED, IN THE UPPER 80S.
FURTHER WEST, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CAM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ORGANIZED, IN PART DUE TO POOR INSTABILITY FURTHER
WEST, RESULTING IN STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS
OF PEAK HEATING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SEE STORMS DISSIPATE JUST
TO OUR WEST, KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE ALIGNED POPS TO MATCH WITH THIS SCENARIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S (WEST) TO MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).
FRIDAY...
A TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST, PLACING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 90S (NORTHEAST) TO MID 100S
(SOUTHWEST). HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS,
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 TO 8PM ON FRIDAY WHEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY, MOVING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NE/NORTHWEST
KS. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V PATTERN, INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WOULD
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, BUT STORMS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS, IT WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE (15-30% POPS) BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE STORMS WILL
BE ELEVATED, CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG-
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. CAM GUIDANCE OVERALL KEEPS ANY
STRONG- SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY ISOLATED IF AT ALL, WHICH SEEMS TO
ALIGN WELL WITH THE DAY 2 SPC MARGINAL RISK (COVERS OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES). NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, GUSTING 20-25MPH,
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANY ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN CO SATURDAY EVENING, MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT (15-40% POPS).
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY (15-35%) UNLIKE SATURDAY. HIGHER CHANCES (20-60%)
FOR RAIN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
OVERALL, A WETTER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BEST POP
CHANCES (AND HEAVIEST RAIN) LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN-SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CLOSEST TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND NEAREST TO
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
NEXT WEEK...
TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, BUT THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY WILL BE COOL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, BUT WILL CLIMB BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL (MID 80S-LOW 90S) BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
LOW PROBABILITY (15-25%) CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE DETAILS ON
ANY OF THESE CHANCES REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
ONGOING MARGINAL LLWS ~35KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM A WEAK
(20-30KT) LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULDN'T STICK AROUND FOR TOO MUCH
LONGER TONIGHT (MAINLY THROUGH 9-10Z). OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETAIN THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. THE BROAD 10-15KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWING NORTHERLY
FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BETWEEN 21-3Z.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (25-30%) FRIDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
GUESSING POTENTIAL STORM TRACKS TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN
ANYTHING OTHER THEN A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...STUMP
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