973
FXUS63 KGID 082336
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL RANGE THE 90S TO LOW 100S (AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES)
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
MAINLY SPREAD 100-105 DEGREES.
- THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS SOME MORE
ISOLATED AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE NEXT "BEST" CHANCE FOR
A MORE SPREAD OUT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL COME MONDAY EVENING.
LOW MODEL CONSISTENCY KEEPS OUR CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW AT
THIS TIME (20- 30%).
- THE STRONGER AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS TO LIE NORTH
OF I- 80 MONDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EITHER SEVERE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS OR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 60MPH.
- HIGHS BEYOND TUESDAY WILL BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUOUSLY DECREASE
DOWN TO THE 70S BY FRIDAY.
- DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EACH
DAY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOLLOWING THE STORMS THIS MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING (NEXT BEST WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES; 20%-30%). SPORADIC AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ROLLING IN AND OUT OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER, CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITHIN A FEW MORE ISOLATED
LOCATIONS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. DUE TO LOW RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY, OUR CONFIDENCE FALLS ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM
IN REGARDS TO DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN STORMS MAY EMERGE.
GIVEN GENERAL WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED SHEAR (<40KTS), THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IN TERMS OF
TONIGHT, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS WOULD FALL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OR FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS RESIDES. EVEN THEN,
THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (<20% FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION).
THE OTHER FACTOR THAT LOOKS PROBABLE TO REEMERGE AGAIN TONIGHT WOULD
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG (60% CHANCE). AS WITH THE LAST TWO NIGHTS,
CALMING WINDS WITH HIGH SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(TEMPERATURES COOLING NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS) MAY BE JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE PRODUCTION OF SOME SURFACE CONDENSATION
(FOG). GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARDS THE NORTH, THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION SHOULD FALL NORTH OF I-80. THE HRRR AND
OTHER HREF MEMBERS HAVE ADDITIONALLY SEEMED TO TARGET CENTRAL TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT (IDENTIFIED BY
60% OF THE HREF MEMBERS).
THE MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE THE HEAT. STEADY SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTING WINDS PAIRED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WORK IN TANDEM
TO HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THEIR LIKELY WARMEST POINT OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS FOR THE DAY WILL BE EXPECTED TO SPAN THE 90S ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA MAY EVEN REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS (20-40%
CHANCES). EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO SET UP AS HIGHS SPREAD THE UPPER 90S TO UP TO 105
DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS (20-40% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO
REACH 105 DEGREES). HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ISOLATED NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS, A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES HINDERS OUR CONFIDENCE TO A DEGREE.
THE DECISION TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY WAS WELL
DISCUSSED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN NEIGHBORING OFFICES. A FEW
QUESTIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED ABOUT IF THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY
LIMIT THE SOLAR FLUX AS WELL AS IF THE MARGINAL DEWPOINTS (50S TO
LOW 60S) WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105
DEGREES. THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES (MID 60S TO LOW 70S) ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA LOCATIONS, OR AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO SURPASS THE MID 90S. GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND THE UNCERTAINTIES, THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY WAS
HELD OFF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
LOOKING AHEAD AT MONDAY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
EMERGING OUT FROM THE ROCKIES MAY HELP STEER ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA (MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE BASED ASSENT). GIVEN THE WARM (90S TO LOW 100S HIGHS),
MOIST (MID 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS) AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS (MUCAPE UP
TO 3,000-5,000J/KM), ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS MAY HAVE A SHOT AT
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE FROM
THE MARGINAL SHEAR (20-35KTS). THE SPC KEEPS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80
INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
IN TERMS OF THE PATTERN ALOFT, THE REGION FALLS INBETWEEN BROAD
RIDGING TO THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES THE
AREA UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW. LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
HONE IN ON A MORE ZONAL (LESS AMPLIFIED) PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A
TO SLIGHT RIDGING (HIGHER PRESSURE) PATTERN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. A FEW OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS THAT EXIST IN
THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST INCLUDES A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND COOLER PERIOD
NEAR THE MIDLE-TO-END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE FORECAST DIP A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO RETURN
BACK TO THE 70S (70-90% CHANCE). DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ADDITIONALLY LIE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WETTER PATTERN WILL COME AS A FEW UPPER-LEVEL WAVES MAY TRY TO
BREAK OUT OF A WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND
09Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WESTERLY BY 12Z THEN NORTHEAST BY
18Z. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (AROUND 20% TO 30%) OF FOG AROUND 12Z. WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 03Z TO 10Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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