984
FXUS63 KGID 051758
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1258 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY, SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15
TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
- THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF PRECIPITATION ANYTIME FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY (LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS OF 3PM. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE 40S IN MANY LOCATIONS, AND THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST NIGHT WE WILL SEE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START MONDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN RETURN TO THE 70S (POSSIBLY PUSHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
WEST). THIS WARMUP WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD EXCEED 30 MPH IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT
HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA, THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AND THIS WILL
FEEL ESPECIALLY TRUE AS WINDS DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. RAW MODEL OUTPUT (AND THE NBM) HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS TRANSITION. IN GENERAL,
THE "OLD SCHOOL" MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE AS OF LATE,
AND IT IS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. THIS ISN'T RECORD- BREAKING TERRITORY, BUT IT IS STILL
A SOLID 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES
HINT AT A LOW RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS WELL,
BUT PROBABILITIES ON THE LATEST NBM REMAIN BELOW 10%. THERE IS
MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR RAIN IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH THIS OBVIOUSLY REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING IN THE 24-26 KT RANGE BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. A LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO KICK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH
BRINGS LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) CONDITIONS. MODELS SUGGEST
THE LLWS WILL BEGIN JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR KEAR AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR KGRI. SIMILARLY, MODELS SUGGEST LLWS CONDITIONS
WILL END SOONER FOR KEAR THAN KGRI, HOWEVER BOTH COME OUT OF
LLWS BEFORE SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY, THE HRRR SHOWS EARLY MORNING
FOG WEST OF KEAR. THE MODEL KEEPS THE FOG AWAY FROM KEAR SO IT
WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF, HOWEVER SHOULD THE FOG COVER FURTHER
EAST IT COULD DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. LIGHT WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING BEGIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THEN SHIFT WESTERLY
AROUND MID-DAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR OR WITH FEW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...MCGREW
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