688
FXUS63 KGID 302322
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HAIL TO AROUND 2
INCHES, WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO (MAIN
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS) ALL POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
FAVORING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60 (AVERAGING
ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
EVENING AS CU IS JUST STARTING TO GET AGITATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. DESPITE FAIRLY MARGINAL
SHEAR, THIS CU WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED (AND
VERY STRONG) INSTABILITY WHICH WILL HELP FUEL EXPLOSIVE GROWTH
AS THEY TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY FAVOR SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS
THE STORMS EXPAND AND MERGE, BUT IF A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO
REMAIN DISCRETE, AN ISOLATED TORNADO (AS ADVERTISED BY SPC) WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA.
THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS ONLY
ONE AREA OF CONCERN, AND A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO OUR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO. EVENTUALLY, THESE TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY MERGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THESE LINES OF STORMS MERGE,
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO STRONG WINDS LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SOME POSSIBLE SUB-SEVERE REDEVELOPMENT HINTED AT IN ITS
WAKE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTH
TOWARD MONTANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STEERING ADDITION WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET, THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC, MAINLY EVENING/NIGHT-TIME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. OVERALL, THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION TODAY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE IN THE VCTY OF BOTH SITES OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH A PERIOD OF 1-3 HOURS OF REDUCED
VSBYS AND NEAR IFR CIGS AS THE INITIAL PUSH CROSSES THE
TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
INITIAL LINE AND KEPT A PROB30 GROUP FROM 31/08-31/10 TO COVER
THIS. CLEARING SKIES AND STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES NEAR 12 KTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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