277  
FXUS63 KGID 050149  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
849 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR SKY  
COVER. STRATUS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IS SHOWING  
SIGNS OF MOVEMENT NORTH AND WEST ALREADY, AS LOW-LEVEL WIND TURNS  
FROM A PRIMARILY EAST COMPONENT TO A SOUTH COMPONENT. I SUSPECT  
THAT PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT  
AMOUNT OF STRATUS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  
MEANWHILE, IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER AHEAD OFF OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS  
LATE TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS. I LIKE OUR  
CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NBM  
INITIALIZATION AS WE APPEAR TO HAVE POTENTIAL OF MORE CLOUDINESS  
THAN PRETTY MUCH ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
THE WEDGE OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ERODED  
NICELY...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED  
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH DESPITE  
BEING ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IS RATHER NICE COMPARED TO  
THE PAST FEW DAYS.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN  
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO HELP  
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL  
NORMS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN SHIFTS FURTHER EAST  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS  
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...RESULTING  
IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE  
SOME INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE  
LOWER STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE  
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AFTER MAXIMUM PEAK HEATING IS  
REALIZED...ALLOWING FOR A NICE STEP UP IN TEMPERATURES TO FINISH  
THE WEEKEND.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO START THE EXTENDED  
PERIODS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST. WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE...EXPECT A FEW  
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY  
NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE TO  
OUR EAST WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE LLJ LATE IN THE NIGHT WILL BE  
AIMED. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO PULL THE THUNDER MENTION IN THE  
FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
ONCE THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY AND  
UNEVENTFUL START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN  
ALOFT IS OBSERVED AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CALIFORNIA  
BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES  
TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THEREAFTER...SEASONAL TEMPS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO  
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODEL  
GUIDANCE...WITH A MUCH WEAKER FRONT EVIDENT IN EC VS GFS  
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION IS LOW...ALTHOUGH GIVEN  
THE COOLING TEMPS...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT  
OF THE QUESTION THURSDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS  
LOOK TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THANKFULLY NOT AS COLD AS THE  
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH ONE CAVEAT. MVFR STRATUS TO THE  
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS  
WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN KS  
TURN FROM AN EAST COMPONENT TO MORE OF A SOUTH COMPONENT. CEILINGS  
JUST EAST OF KGRI COULD BE AS LOW AS OVC010 BY 12Z OR 13Z SUNDAY,  
AND IF THIS FORECAST IS OFF BY ONLY 10 TO 20 MILES, KGRI COULD BE  
SEEING OVC010 AS WELL. THE TERMINAL AT KGRI IS ESPECIALLY  
VULNERABLE BY ABOUT 12Z OR 13Z SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE  
WATCHED CLOSELY. KEAR SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AVOID MVFR  
CEILINGS, AT LEAST BY 13Z SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE  
OF LOWERED VISIBILITY TOWARD 13Z SUNDAY AT KGRI, BUT THIS SEEMS TO  
BE LESS LIKELY FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...HEINLEIN  
SHORT TERM...ROSSI  
LONG TERM...ROSSI  
AVIATION...HEINLEIN  
 
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