557  
FXUS63 KGID 132350  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
650 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW IS LEADING TO BROAD  
RANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER - MILD, DRY AND BREEZY NORTH, TO HOT  
AND STEAMY S/SE.  
 
- THIS FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT  
IF ANY DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE ON THE MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE WITH  
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  
 
- BETTER CHANCES (50-80%) FOR STORMS ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY EVENING  
AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE  
MAIN CONCERNS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) MAINLY  
W/SW OF THE TRI-CITIES, AND A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE.  
 
- REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH NEARLY DAILY  
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, GENERALLY HIGHEST (40-50%) MID TO LATE  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
- AFTER A BRIEF/MINOR COOL DOWN FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES  
MODERATE BY SATURDAY THEN BECOME HOT AGAIN (90S TO LOW 100S)  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY 80S-90S NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
RATHER INTERESTING DAY OUT THERE TODAY FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER  
PERSPECTIVE, AS CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MILD, DRY AND BREEZY  
ACROSS CENTRAL NE, TO QUITE HOT AND STEAMY IN NORTHERN KS. IN  
FACT, ODX IS IN THE LOW 80S, HAS A SUB-60 DEW POINT, AND NE  
WINDS A REFRESHING 20 MPH, GUSTING 30 MPH. ON THE FLIP (S) SIDE  
OF THE FRONT, AREAS NEAR BELOIT ARE IN THE LOW 100S WITH DEW  
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT LEAST THESE AREAS HAVE  
A BREEZE, AS WELL, BUT OUT OF THE S. SFC COLD FRONT HAS MADE TO,  
OR EVEN JUST S OF, THE NE/KS STATE LINE AS OF 3PM, AND SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. RECENT SATELLITE DATA  
SHOWS NEW CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WSW TO ENE AXIS - ROUGHLY  
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL  
COLD FRONT, LIKELY ALONG SOME SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WIND  
SHIFT. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THAT THE  
MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD INDEED BE JUST S OF THE AREA  
THIS AFTN/EVE, AND THIS SEEMS TO BE WHAT'S PLAYING OUT. HAVE  
MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS IN OUR FAR S (20-30%) IN THE EVENT  
THE STORMS GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO CLIP THESE COUNTIES BEFORE  
MOVING SE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY SMALL, ISO AND ELEVATED  
CELLS DEVELOP IN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WHAT APPEARS  
TO BE THE LOWEST 100MB MIXING RATIO GRADIENT. HI- RES GUIDANCE  
HAS NOT HANDLED THIS ACTIVITY WELL, AND KEPT OUT OF THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN RECENT WEAKENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS  
SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY BASED ABOVE THE  
PRIMARY CAPPING INVERSION, BUT DON'T THINK THIS WILL AMOUNT TO  
MUCH GIVEN PRIMARY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.  
 
CURRENT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY  
LATE OVERNIGHT, SO THE PRIMARY MUCAPE AXIS NEVER REALLY CLEARS  
THE AREA. IN FACT, MODELS SHOW WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING  
TO W/SW ZONES BY DAWN FRI AM, SO WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME  
ACCAS AND A FEW "SUNRISE SURPRISE" STORMS W/SW OF THE TRI-  
CITIES. BY IN LARGE, HOWEVER, THINK MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS FRI  
WILL REMAIN DRY THANKS TO NEGLIGIBLE 500MB HEIGHT CHANGES AND  
VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12-15C.  
SE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH AND HIGH END POTENTIAL  
FOR TEMPS, BUT LOW TO MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST  
THE FAR W AND SW. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A  
GOOD PROXY OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS FOR STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRI AFTN TO WORK WITH AS THEY  
SHIFT E/NE FRIDAY EVE. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL  
APPROACH FAR W/SW ZONES AS AN MCS AROUND MID TO LATE EVENING,  
PROBABLY ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE  
HIGH WIND, THOUGH SOME HAIL COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.  
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AND E/NE EXTENT FRI  
NIGHT AS ACTIVITY "OUTRUNS" THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AXIS.  
IF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS LINES UP FURTHER NE, OR CAN BE ADVECTED  
NE FRI EVE, THEN THE SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND/EXPAND IN  
TIME/SPACE. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH, THOUGH IS LOW CONFIDENCE  
AT THIS TIME, IS POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF ISO HEAVY RAIN. THERE  
COULD BE SOME BACKBUILDING ON THE SW/S FLANK OF SAID MCS, AND  
PWATS WILL BE ELEVATED IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE. HOW PREVALENT THE  
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING ACTUALLY IS IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS GENERALLY  
DRY US OUT BY DAWN SAT AM.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND 48HRS BECOME FAIRLY MURKY, AS THEY OFTEN  
ARE IN THE SUMMER MONTHS, DUE TO EFFECTS OF CONVECTION, THE  
WEAKEST OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES, AND POTENTIAL BOUNDARY  
PLACEMENT. THE NAM SUGGESTS MOSTLY UNCAPPED MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY LATE SAT AFTN AND INTO THE EVE, ALONG WITH MODEST  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35KT. MAIN QUESTION IS FORCING AND UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A FILLING SHORTWAVE  
OVER THE N PLAINS, SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY 21Z, WHEREAS  
OTHER GUIDANCE LINGERS AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS LATER AND  
FURTHER SW. SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS MAY  
LAG THE BETTER SHEAR, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP.  
THE MARGINAL RISK ON THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SEEMS  
REASONABLE ENOUGH TO COVER A LOW-CONFIDENCE, NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER SAT PM...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE REFINED  
AND/OR SHIFTED OVER THE COMING UPDATES. SREF CALIBRATED GUIDANCE  
WOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBS OVER E/NE ZONES VS W/SW.  
 
SHOULD GET INTO A DRIER AND HOTTER PATTERN FOR A COUPLE DAYS  
SUN-MON, WITH SOME AREAS ALONG/S OF THE STATE LINE LIKELY  
NEARING OR EXCEEDING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MAY BE  
PUSHING HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THESE AREAS ONE OR BOTH  
DAYS. WOULD THINK H7 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 15C WOULD KEEP US  
CAPPED OFF AND DRY, ESP. MON, BUT STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.  
MORE COHERENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND PUSH OF LOWER MID LEVEL  
TEMPS/HEIGHTS SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND  
PERHAPS LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS  
COULD MAKE FOR A PATTERN OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND  
MORE MILD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE  
ENSEMBLE PLATFORMS SUPPORT THIS IDEA BY SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIP ANOMALIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (LIKELY  
DRIVEN BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS) THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A MIX OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A  
FEW LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, DECREASING AROUND  
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW  
MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY  
MID-DAY.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...THIES  
AVIATION...WEKESSER  
 
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