552
FXUS63 KGID 020550
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THESE NEXT 24-36 HOURS HAVE TRENDED "INCREASINGLY MESSY"
FORECAST-WISE. WHILE AT LEAST ONE MORE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
DENSE FOG TONIGHT-SATURDAY AM WAS ALREADY A CONCERN, A "NEW
TWIST" IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A
PESKY/FAIRLY LIGHT (BUT POTENTIALLY TRAVEL IMPACTFUL?) WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIP (FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET) FRIDAY DAYTIME-
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST CONCERN COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80.
- ONCE ANY WINTRY MIX VACATES OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) FRIDAY
EVENING, THERE COULD BE ONE MORE ROUND OF LATE NIGHT-SAT AM
FOG, BUT HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY-CHILLY FRIDAY (HIGHS
30S-40S), SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALL APPEAR SOLIDLY WARMER-
THAN-NORMAL (HIGHS MAINLY 50S WITH LOW 60S HERE OR THERE).
- OUR FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY DRY SATURDAY-THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD DENSE AND FREEZING FOG WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM, SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY-183 (LOCATIONS INCLUDED UNDER THE ADVISORY). IN
ADDITION, THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MIXED WITH THE DENSE FOG
COULD CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD AND SURFACE CONDITIONS FOR THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:
- AS HIT ON IN KEY MESSAGE #1 ABOVE, CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A
PESKY/NUISANCE WINTRY PRECIP "EVENT" IS TRENDING UP FOR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. MORE DETAILS BELOW, BUT
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR A GLAZE OF LIGHT ICING ESPECIALLY
WITHIN COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 (LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH, AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
ANYWAY THAT "PLAIN" LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN EXPECTATION.
- AFTER WE INDEED ENDED UP HAVING A ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FOG THIS MORNING (INCLUDING LOCALIZED DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS), IT'S ALSO LOOKING INCREASINGLY-
LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG/VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
- DESPITE THESE VARIOUS CONCERNS DESCRIBED ABOVE, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT ONE/POSSIBLY BOTH OF
THESE "HEADLINES" COULD BE FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH THURS. JAN.
8...BUT HEAVILY FOCUSED ON NEXT 36 HOURS):
- CURRENT-RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ALONG WITH AN EXPANSIVE LOW
STRATUS DECK THAT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE CWA TO START THE
DAY...HAS LONG-SINCE LIFTED (THE FOG) AND DEPARTED OFF TO OUR
EAST (THE LOW STRATUS). AS A RESULT, THIS AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED
A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH AT LEAST FILTERED
SUNSHINE DESPITE INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WHAT
24 HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TURN OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS...WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM LOW 40S FAR
EAST, TO MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL TO LOW-MID 50S WEST.
ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CONFIRM BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHILE OFF TO THE WEST OUR ATTENTION IS DRAWN TO A PAIR
OF DISTURBANCES GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRING OUR AFOREMENTIONED
PESKY PRECIP CHANCES/WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, BREEZES CURRENTLY AVERAGE ONLY 5-10 MPH OUT OF A
GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION (MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES).
- TONIGHT (DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERN):
IN SOME WAYS, TONIGHT'S OVERALL SITUATION STRONGLY RESEMBLES
THAT OF LAST NIGHT (THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING GREATER COVERAGE
OF HIGH LEVEL/MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST).
OTHERWISE, JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT
"BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO OUR CWA
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, ITS ARRIVAL MARKED BY A SWITCH TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY-THEN-EASTERLY BREEZES. ALSO LIKE LAST NIGHT, A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG (CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY 90
MILES NORTH-THROUGH-NORTHEAST OF THE EDGES OF OUR CWA) WILL BE
DRAWN BACK SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...SOME POTENTIALLY
DENSE...TO GRADUALLY BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA IN THE
LIGHT-BUT-MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) SURFACE FLOW.
LEANING ON OFTEN-RELIABLE MODELED-VISIBILITY FROM HRRR/RAP,
IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY) WILL
INDEED DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
MITIGATING FACTOR MIGHT BE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE,
THAT SOMETIMES KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FROM EFFICIENTLY SATURATING.
HOWEVER, IT'S TOUGH TO IGNORE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOG
SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY PULL
THE TRIGGER ON A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AM, RIGHT
NOW I'D SAY THE ODDS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD NEEDING ONE THAN
AGAINST. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO VERY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA AIMED 26-30 DEGREES.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT..FOG AND WINTRY MIX
CONCERNS):
ASSUMING THAT WIDESPREAD FOG/AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG INDEED
MATERIALIZES BY/NEAR SUNRISE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE
WELL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN A FEW SPOTS (ALTHOUGH HAVE NO MENTION OF FOG
IN OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND NOON AT THIS TIME).
THEN, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY-
LIKELY ROUND OF LIGHT-BUT-PESKY PRECIP...INCLUDING A WINTRY
MIX...THAT COULD START BEFORE NOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. OFFICIAL
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) HAVE BEEN MODESTLY-INCREASED
VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA, BUT PERHAPS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH (LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE "LIKELY" PERCENTAGES IF TRENDS FROM VARIOUS LATEST
MODELS (HRRR/NAMNEST/ECMWF/GFS) ARE ANY INDICATION). WHILE WE
ARE NOT TALKING BIG AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY MEANS (NO MORE THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MOST PLACES)...THE ISSUE IS THAT
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE AND UPWARD INTO THE LOWEST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WILL BE RIDING A "FINE LINE" BETWEEN PLAIN
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND PERHAPS A SLEET/SNOW MIX. WHAT WE DO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT OUR COUNTIES ALONG/ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-80 STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WINTRY MIX, WHILE OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 DOWN INTO KS ARE MORE FAVORED TO SEE
JUST PLAIN RAIN OR REMAIN DRY ALTOGETHER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE WITH THE LATEST DATA, BUT RIGHT NOW OUR
NORTHERN CWA IS OVERALL-MOST FAVORED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
A POTENTIAL ICE GLAZE THAT COULD CAUSE SOME NUISANCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS. MEANWHILE, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
CURRENTLY LOOK TO FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE NORTH/EAST
(ALTHOUGH OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES COULD ALSO CATCH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE PRECIP
DEPARTS). SPEAKING OF WHICH, ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT
IN OUR CWA AS THE UPPER WAVE/LIFT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUMMARIZING: FRIDAY'S WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL HAS RAMPED UP FAIRLY
"LATE IN THE GAME" FORECAST-WISE, AND WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME
TO RAISE PUBLIC AWARENESS...JUST IN CASE IT DOES CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES.
OF COURSE, ONE VERY KEY PIECE TO WHETHER PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTH WILL BE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW, USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND TO DERIVE
HOURLY/MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A RANGE IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM LOW 30S FAR NORTHEAST, TO MID-UPPER 30S CENTRAL...TO
40S SOUTHWEST (AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 50S ESPECIALLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS). IF ANYTHING THESE HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
- LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT AM (AFTER MIDNIGHT):
ONCE ANY PESKY PRECIP DEPARTS OUR EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING,
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE WINDS TURN LIGHT WESTERLY
(DOWNSLOPE)...TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG...THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
DAYTIME. AT ANY RATE, HAVE NOT INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST YET,
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FOG LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE. LOW TEMPS ARE
AIMED LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA.
- SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY (THE WEEKEND):
IN SHORT, WE RETURN TO A WARMER AND IN THEORY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" FORECAST AGAIN, AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
QUASI-ZONAL (WEST-EAST) IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRIDAY
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AIMED MAINLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND EVEN
SOME 60S MAINLY FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FAIRLY
LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES, BUT SUNDAY OVERALL-BREEZIER OUT OF THE
SOUTH (GUST AT LEAST 20-25 MPH).
- MONDAY-THURSDAY:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT REMAINS MAINLY (IF NOT ENTIRELY) DRY,
AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER WAVES PASSING BY IN
CONTINUED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS PRIMARILY
DIRECT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. OFFICIALLY, WE HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY,
BUT THIS IS MORE DRIVEN BY THE LATEST GFS THAN THE ECMWF (WHICH
IS CURRENTLY DRY). TEMPERATURE-WISE, SEASONABLY-MILD MARCHES
ON, WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S-LOW 60S MOST DAYS, AND PERHAPS COOLING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD 40S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY MILD BY JANUARY STANDARDS, WITH MOST NIGHTS AIMED
NEAR-TO-ONLY-SLIGHTLY-BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CEILING WILL BE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOON (BETWEEN 7-10Z) WITH FOG
ROLLING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 8-12Z. CLOUD BASES EAST OF THE
AREA CURRENTLY REST NEAR 1,500FT, ALTHOUGH, THESE BASES ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LIFR BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY (DOWN TO AROUND 300-500FT BEFORE 12Z).
VISIBILITY FROM FREEZING FOG, MAY DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 10Z-16Z TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FASTER AT KGRI COMPARED TO KEAR WITH
LIKELY LONGER DWELLING TIMES OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW-LYING
CLOUDS COULD KEEP KGRI UNDERNEATH MVFR LEVELS ALL DAY WITH BASES
CLOSE TO JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS FOR KEAR.
A QUICK PASSING SYSTEM COULD ALSO IMPACT THE AREA, DEPOSITING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OR EVEN A FEW
FLURRIES FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW (15-30%)
AS MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THE TIMEFRAME THAT THIS WINTER SYSTEM WILL IN THE VICINITY WILL
BE BETWEEN 18Z AND 0Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD (<10KTS), WITH
DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ006-007-018-
019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...STUMP
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