365
FXUS63 KGID 260552
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A FEW NEBRASKA LOCATIONS
(MAINLY COUNTIES EAST OF HWY-281) THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6PM AS
SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AS LOW
AS 1/4 MILE CONTINUE.
- THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY COME TOMORROW (MID 60S
TO LOW 70S) WITH A COLD FRONT TANKING HIGHS BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY (FROM THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
40S).
- TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT WILL NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE.
- A 20-30% CHANCE FOR FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW (ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO A FEW TENTHS) RESIDES SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MAINLY NORTHWESTERN LYING LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES MONDAY (UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SUBTLE WARMUP TUE/WED (40S TO LOW 50S).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- BRIEF LATE-EVENING FOG UPDATE:
OUR LAST "FORMAL" DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN A HANDFUL OF OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BACK AT 8 PM. SINCE THEN,
WE'VE BEEN ADDRESSING SOME BRIEF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY ON
THE FAR BACK (WEST) SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW STRATUS DECK WITH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSGID), BUT EVEN THIS LINGERING FOG
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE EXTREME EAST/SOUTHEAST EDGES OF OUR
CWA BY NO LATER THAN 1-2 AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE LINGERING FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-281. THE CONTINUATION OF
SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE HAS
PROVOKED THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM
TONIGHT FOR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF HWY-281 AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80 INCLUDING MERRICK AND POLK COUNTIES. THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG THE SURFACE, ONLY GRADUALLY RISING/MIXING
OUT. AS RESULT, HIGHS TODAY HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO PUNCH UP MUCH
FURTHER THAN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN THE 30S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT GRAZING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WILL HELP CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS FOR TOMORROW (AT
LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY). AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW
(~1004MB) IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP GUIDE STEADY (5-15 MPH) WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED WINDS TONIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS IT
DEPARTS OVER TO THE EAST. THE GENTLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
FRIDAY (ADIABATIC WARMING) PAIRED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE FOR
THE PERFECT INGREDIENTS NEEDED TO WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
POTENTIALLY INTO RECORD TERRITORY. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE 60S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S ACROSS A FEW KS LOCATIONS.
THESE ARE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FOR A
WHILE.
ANOTHER MATURING SURFACE LOW COMING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LATER BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN END OF THE WEEK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE READY TO SHAKE THINGS UP FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. BEFORE THEN, THE STEADY WESTERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY (UPPER 50S
TO UPPER 60S) WILL BECOME THE LAST OF THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG AND POWERING COLD FRONT,
MENTION EARLIER, IS NOW EXPECTED TO BARREL THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY, FLIPPING WINDS TO THE NORTH ALONG
BEHIND IT.
CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WILL CHANGE NOTABLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES, INFLUENCED BY THE RUSH OF COLD AIR, WILL DROP
AROUND 25-35 DEGREES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE MID
20S (FAR NORTHERN AREAS) TO THE LOW 40S (FAR SOUTHERN AREAS). IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD, BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BLOW
BETWEEN 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40+ MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS (WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND 5 DEGREES).
THOUGH NOT QUITE YET A COMPLETE GUARANTEE (20-30% CHANCE), FLURRIES TO
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING IN A COUPLE OF PLACES BEHIND THE
FRONT (MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LYING AREAS). CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MORE WISHY-WASHY THAN DEFINITE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. SYNOPTICALLY
SPEAKING, A COMPRESSED AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT LOOKS TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SYNOPTIC-LEVEL ASSENT
(RELATIVELY STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION NEAR THE BASE OF A PV
ANOMALY) TO GIVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO CHURN OUT SOME FLURRIES TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY ORIGINATE ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA, TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT/MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION STILL TO BE ANSWERED IS IF SUCH
SHOWERS WILL EITHER MAINTAIN OR MISS THE AREA ALTOGETHER.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK BEYOND SUNDAY, CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRY
DRY AS THE AREA WILL LIKELY SIT UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN SIDE
(NORTHWEST FLOW REGION) OF A SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE RIDGE. THE
"BIGGEST" CHANGE OVERALL IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST HAS BEEN THE
NARROWING CONFIDENCE FOR YET A COLDER DAY MONDAY (UPPER 20S TO MID
30S). TEMPERATURES ALSO NOW APPEAR TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES HEADING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (MAINLY THE 40S TUE/WED) WITH WINDS
OSCILLATING FROM THE WEST TO NORTH AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
WE ARE BACK TO A VERY HIGH-CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST NOW THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT PLAGUED MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS
VACATED EAST. IN FACT, MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OVERALL, BUT A FORMAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
OVERALL NO MAJOR CONCERNS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WILL ONLY BE 5-10KT, BUT PARTICULARLY THE MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COULD SEE MORE CONSISTENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 15KT. DIRECTION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE WESTERLY, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY EVENING.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD (07-12Z), AS A
TRANSIENT "SURGE" OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ROOTED MAINLY BETWEEN
1-2K FT. AGL WILL ACCELERATE TO AROUND 45KT, RESULTING IN
MODERATELY-STRONG SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 35KT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 24-27:
AS OUR OVERALL-VERY-MILD STRETCH OF LATE-DECEMBER CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY, A FEW DAILY RECORDS FOR WARMTH (BOTH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS) WILL LIKELY END UP BEING BROKEN, WITH
FRIDAY (DEC. 26) FEATURING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SETTING NEW
RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS.
BELOW IS WHERE OUR LATEST FORECAST (OR ALREADY-OBSERVED VALUES)
STAND VERSUS EXISTING RECORDS AT GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS
AIRPORTS, THE TWO NWS-MAINTAINED SITES FOR WHICH WE ISSUE
OFFICIAL RECORD EVENT REPORTS (RERGRI/RERHSI). PLEASE NOTE THAT
* INDICATES THAT OUR LATEST FORECAST/OBSERVED VALUE WOULD TIE OR
BREAK AN EXISTING DAILY RECORD:
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
OR OBSERVED
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1963,1922 | OBSERVED: 45
DECEMBER 26: 64 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 68*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 61
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 25: 62 IN 1999,1950 | OBSERVED: 44
DECEMBER 26: 65 IN 2005 | FORECAST: 68*
DECEMBER 27: 64 IN 1937 | FORECAST: 62
_________________________________________________________
- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | LATEST FORECAST
OR OBSERVED
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1959 | OBSERVED: 29
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1931 | FORECAST: 38*
DECEMBER 27: 34 IN 1905 | FORECAST: 38*
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
DECEMBER 25: 34 IN 1922 | OBSERVED: 26
DECEMBER 26: 38 IN 1959 | FORECAST: 39*
DECEMBER 27: 37 IN 1957 | FORECAST: 38*
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...NWS HASTINGS
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