126
FXUS63 KGID 021135
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
535 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PESKY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL IMPACT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO NEAR FREEZING THE PAST FEW HOURS, IMPACTS FROM ANY
DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.
- AFTER A CLOUDY, BUT MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON, DRIZZLE AND
WIDESPREAD FOG RETURNS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE, BUT DENSE
FOG LOOKS LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY DAYTIME SHOULD MAINLY BE A DRY
BREAK AS WE RESIDE "IN BETWEEN" LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. AFTER A
FEW VERY "GLOOMY" DAYS, SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS WILL ALSO
RETURN. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S!
- OUR NEXT SYSTEMS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PREDOMINANTLY RAIN, WITH SOME SIGNS
OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY THURS NIGHT-FRI
AM)...MAYBE EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.
- NEXT WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING FRIDAY SYSTEM
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS CAN BE SEEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN ELUSIVE, AND
CONFIDENCE OF EITHER IS ON THE LOW SIDE. THAT SAID, NEED TO GET
THROUGH AROUND 9-10 AM TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT AREA ROAD CAMS, NO SIGNS OF ANY PRECIP OR DENSE FOG
AS OF 3 AM, BUT IF SOMETHING WERE TO DEVELOP, MODELS INDICATE IT
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS JUST YET. THAT SAID, MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE
HANGING ONTO A SHALLOW DRY LAYER THAT WOULD ELIMINATE
DRIZZLE/FOG FORMATION, AND CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST
THIS TO BE THE CASE. SO LEANING AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GLOOMY
SKIES WILL REMAIN, WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN ANGLE GOES DOWN AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST HELPS BRING UP DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, WITH DENSE FOG A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. LOOKING AT SREF PROBS FOR FOG NEAR 100
PERCENT TUESDAY MORNING, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BEING NECESSARY.
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH 0.1" TO
0.25" OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION LOOKING GOOD FOR MUCH OF
THE LOCAL AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
COUNTIES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES/POSSIBLE WEAKNESSES AND/OR BIG PICTURE
COMMENTS:
- IN TERMS OF FORECAST CHANGES WORTH MENTIONING:
1) HIGH TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT MON-WED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PERIODIC DRIZZLE.
2) LIMITED AREAS OF "PATCHY FOG" HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO
TONIGHT-MONDAY AM, AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE "AREAS OF FOG" HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED TO MON NIGHT-TUES AM. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG.
- AS FOR "BIG PICTURE COMMENTS", OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO, WITH OUR MAIN/POTENTIAL ISSUES ALREADY COVERED IN
THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE. IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT-MONDAY AM AND FOG
POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS, OUR NEXT POSSIBLE CONCERN LOOKS
TO BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY THURS NIGHT-FRI AM.
ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS, CURRENT
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.
HONESTLY, IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN MUCH AT ALL FROM CURRENT
PROJECTIONS, FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD PERHAPS EVEN FEATURE A
VERY EARLY-SEASON SEVERE STORM THREAT (AS OF RIGHT NOW THIS
APPEARS TO MAINLY FOCUS SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST (AS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST NSSL ML TOTAL SEVERE PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE).
- ONE THING NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
(HWOGID), BUT AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING IS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY. WHILE THE DAMP/DRIZZLE CONDITIONS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK COULD EASE THE FIRE THREAT A LITTLE, FINER
FUELS (GRASSES) WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20+
MPH CURRENTLY APPEAR PROBABLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AS
OF NOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE OUR
CRITICAL 20% THRESHOLD (ALBEIT SOMEWHAT CLOSE IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH SUN. MARCH 8):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 3 PM:
IT'S BEEN A FAIRLY BUSY DAY AROUND HERE, AS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ENDED UP BEING
"MOST RIGHT" ABOUT THE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
(PRIMARILY A SLEET/SNOW MIX WITH PERHAPS A TOUCH OF FREEZING
RAIN) THAT STARTED OFF IN VERY LIGHT/NON-IMPACTFUL FASHION
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING, BUT THEN
REALLY "TOOK OFF" WITHIN ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON 511 ROAD REPORTS, THERE IS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PARTIALLY-TO-COMPLETELY COVERED ROADS
WITH EITHER ICE/SLUSH/SNOW WITHIN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
SPEAKING OF WHICH, EARLIER THIS MORNING WE ENDED UP ISSUING A
FORMAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INITIALLY FOR 7 OF OUR
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES, BUT THEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
TACKED ON CLAY/FILLMORE COUNTIES AS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PRECIP ALSO GOT INTO THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL. THANKS TO A
TONGUE OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOSING NORTHWARD INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST CWA, ESPECIALLY SOME OF OUR KS COUNTIES ALSO
EXPERIENCED SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM NON-SEVERE STORMS.
SIDE NOTE: ON TOP OF ALL THE ACTUAL WEATHER GOING ON...A 4.1
MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE (FAIRLY STRONG FOR OUR AREA) OCCURRED IN
WEBSTER COUNTY AROUND 1 PM! (SEE USGS WEBSITE FOR MORE DETAILS).
BACK TO WEATHER: IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS,
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM
THE LOW AMPLITUDE/QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT SPARKED OUR ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP. AT THE
SURFACE (AND AS SO OFTEN OCCURS IN THESE SETUPS), PERSISTENT
EASTERLY BREEZES (MAINLY SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS), ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF OUR
CWA, HAS HELPED HOLD TEMPS A BIT BELOW FORECAST VALUES (MOST OF
OUR CWA ON TRACK TO TOP OUT NO WARMER THAN 30-35. HOWEVER, MORE
SUN HAS BROKEN OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN 1/4TH OF OUR CWA
TO BOOST THINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S.
- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING:
ALTHOUGH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN OUR SOUTHEAST OFFICIALLY
RUNS UNTIL 6 PM, LATEST RADAR DATA/SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THINGS ARE MOVING OUT PRETTY STEADILY
(MOST LINGERING PRECIP NOW CONFINED TO JEWELL/THAYER COUNTIES),
AND WILL PROBABLY CANCEL MOST COUNTIES ONCE THIS DISCUSSION IS
COMPLETED. ANY LINGERING/STEADIER PRECIP SHOULD VACATE EVEN OUR
EXTREME EAST-SOUTHEAST EDGES NO LATER THAN 5-6 PM.
- LATER THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND
MOIST/UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST
AND OR/MOVE INTO ESSENTIALLY OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (PROBABLY
ARRIVING TO FAR WESTERN ZONES LAST). WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
"MAJOR DEAL", AN ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD THICKNESS/RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VIA RAP MODEL SUGGESTS THAT VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
COULD DEVELOP MAINLY POST-MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY WITHIN COUNTIES
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 (FARTHER WEST, MOISTURE DEPTH IS LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE). RIGHT NOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ONLY CONSIDERED A POSSIBILITY (NOT A "SURE THING") AND THUS NO
FORMAL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT, BUT THIS WILL NEED MONITORED
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE LOOKING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH LATEST HRRR PAINTING THE GREATEST FOG
POTENTIAL WITHIN COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. SOMETIMES MODELS
"OVER-DO" FOG UNDER LOW STRATUS, BUT WITH TODAY'S PRECIPITATION
AND LIGHT BREEZES, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT (INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED DENSE FOG). LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE AIMED
UPPER 20S MOST AREAS (CLOUDS HOLDING UP READING FROM FALLING
FAR), EXCEPT COLDER LOW 20S FAR WEST/NORTH WHERE THE NIGHT WILL
START OFF CLEAREST.
- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
FOR THE MORNING HOURS, WE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL (MAINLY COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80, ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281. FORTUNATELY, BY 10 AM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING, TURNING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
PLAIN/NON-FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, WHILE SOME VERY
PATCHY/LINGERING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, OPTED TO ACTUALLY
CARRY A DRY FORECAST AS IT SHOULD MAINLY JUST BE A VERY
CLOUDY/COOL AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 MPH/GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH). GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES..MOST AREAS NOW AIMED 41-45...EXCEPT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
EXTREME WEST (DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS).
MONDAY NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD (MAINLY NON-
FREEZING) DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY SOME DENSE) REALLY
RAMPS UP AS THE LOW-LEVEL FURTHER SATURATE IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT (DRIZZLE RARELY IS), OUR OFFICIAL PRECIP
CHANCES (POPS) ARE ALSO LIKELY NOT NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH TO CONVEY
THE VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF DRIZZLE. LOW TEMPS MAINLY 33-39
DEGREES (SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING), BUT FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST
COUNTIES COULD DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING SO LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL NEED MONITORED.
- TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH WE COULD END UP GETTING SOME STEADIER SHOWERS AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD (ESPECIALLY TUES EVENING-
OVERNIGHT), PRECIP TYPE FOR ESPECIALLY MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
SHOULD CONTINUE AS STEADY/WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG
LIKELY LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS WELL. AS WAS THE CASE FOR
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY, NOW MAINLY MID-
UPPER 40S AT MOST.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL LIKELY BE DRY FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THESE 36 HOURS, AS WE END UP "IN BETWEEN" SYSTEMS.
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CARRIES SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-EVENING, BUT LATEST NAM/GFS REALLY LEAN TOWARD
THE DRY SIDE. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO MAKE A TRIUMPHANT RETURN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS RESPONDING
ACCORDINGLY (HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 50S-LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
60S-LOW 70S THURSDAY...POSSIBLY MID 70S SOUTHWEST. AS TOUCHED ON
ABOVE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES PICK UP THURSDAY.
- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH FAR TOO EARLY TO "COUNT ON" ANY DETAILS, CONFIDENCE IS
AT LEAST GROWING IN THE OVERALL TIMING/ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS/SOME THUNDERSTORMS (MAYBE A FEW
STRONG?) APPEAR LIKELY MAINLY THURS NIGHT-FRI AM, WITH A COLD
FRONT THEN CHARGING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND IN THEORY
SHUNTING ANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM THREAT AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY TO OUR EAST-SOUTHEAST. OUR FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES
COULD FLIRT WITH CATCHING SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW THIS MAINLY LOOKS TO FOCUS AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY NORTH- THROUGH-WEST OF OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY COULD
VARY MORE THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED DEPENDING ON FRONTAL
POSITION, BUT ARE CURRENTLY AIMED FROM LOW-MID 50S NORTH/WEST TO
LOW-MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
ALTHOUGH OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST TECHNICALLY CLIPS SOME OF OUR KS
COUNTIES WITH SOME VERY "IFFY" SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES, THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS STRONGLY SUPPORT OUR GOING DRY FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPS CURRENTLY AIMED NEAR-60
SATURDAY AND THEN WARMER MID 60S-LOW 70S FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
STRATUS HANGS TOUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND LESS THAN 12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND INTRODUCED BR
WITH LOWER VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFT 03/07Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ROSSI
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
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