185
FXUS63 KGID 020352
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
952 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..SHORT TERM UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA, AND LOCALIZED DENSE FOG (VISIBILITY 1/4
MILE OR LESS) CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS LOW, AS RECENT HIGHER-RES
MODEL RUNS THIS EVENING HAVE "BACKED OFF" SOMEWHAT ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- WARM AND DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- OVERNIGHT-MONDAY AM FOG POTENTIAL? (STILL PLENTY UNCERTAIN):
EXCEPT IN THE OCCASIONAL MORE "TEXTBOOK" SETUPS THAT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD FOG (OF WHICH MONDAY AM IS NOT), OUR FOG FORECASTS
USUALLY LEAN TOWARD THE UNCERTAIN/"FICKLE" SIDE OF THINGS WITH
VARIOUS PROS/CONS IN PLAY (MONDAY AM DOES FIT THIS BILL).
AS NOTED BY PRECEDING DAY SHIFT FORECASTER (AND AS HAS
CONTINUED THIS EVENING), HIGHER-RES MODEL FOG/VISIBILITY
FORECASTS (SUCH AS FROM HRRR) CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE REGARDING
THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF FOG, WITH THE MOST RECENT FEW RUNS
KEEPING COVERAGE QUITE LIMITED (NOT WIDESPREAD). ON THE FLIP
SIDE, COARSER ENSEMBLE VISIBILITY GUIDANCE SUCH AS FROM SREF IS
RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH
FORECASTER EXPERIENCE NOTES THIS IS OFTEN PROVEN "OVERDONE" IN
THE WAKE OF VERY RECENT MELTING OF SHALLOW SNOW..SUCH AS WHAT
WE JUST HAD TODAY).
"PROS" FAVORING POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION
INCLUDE:
- LIGHT WINDS MAINLY NEAR-TO-BELOW 6 MPH
- ENHANCED VERY-LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM SNOW
MELT THIS AFTERNOON (MOST PREVALENT OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND KS ZONES).
"CONS" AGAINST FOG FORMATION (AT LEAST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE)
INCLUDE:
- ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, THEY WON'T BE TRULY CALM IN MOST
PLACES EITHER, AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS (JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE) ACTUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH TIME MON AM.
- INCREASING (ALBEIT INITIALLY THIN) HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD
ARRIVE "JUST IN TIME" TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING QUITE AS FAR
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST (AND THUS KEEPING RH SLIGHTLY HIGHER).
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED:
OUR LATEST THINKING IS THAT MONDAY AM FOG WILL "PROBABLY" TEND
TO BE MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE (NOT WIDESPREAD/BLANKETING
MULTIPLE COUNTIES), BUT WHERE IT DOES DEVELOP IT COULD BE
LOCALIZED DENSE (VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE). CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION/DENSITY IS FAR TOO LOW TO EVEN CONSIDER A PROACTIVE
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, BUT IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAVE AT LEAST BLANKETED OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH GENERIC
"PATCHY FOG" IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST (ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3-9
AM), AND HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
DESPITE YESTERDAY'S SNOWFALL, TEMPERATURES HAVE OVERACHIEVED
TODAY, WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA REACHING THE 50S. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SNOWMELT TODAY, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. 12Z
CAMS WERE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH
MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BACKED OF ON THE COVERAGE...PARTIALLY
DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE INCREASED CLOUDCOVER ON MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK ARRIVES
WITH A SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MIXED.
PRIMARY TYPES WILL BE RAIN AND SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES. LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW. A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME WILL BE
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
BUT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS STILL ON-TRACK FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE WILL LIKELY COME UP
SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS, WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
WELL.
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
THE FOLLOWING WEEK (FEBRUARY 10-14), AS WE MOVE TO MORE ZONAL OR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, DETAILS REMAIN VERY
UNCERTAIN AND TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION-FREE.
ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6-8 HOURS THIS EVENING, AND ALSO THE FINAL 6-8 HOURS
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE "MIDDLE" 8
HOURS (08-16Z) ADMITTEDLY CARRIES A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR POSSIBILITIES (MORE DETAILS BELOW). WINDS
WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NO MORE
THAN 5-10KT AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL GRADUAL DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS...FROM DOWNRIGHT VARIABLE
MUCH OF TONIGHT, TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY MORNING, TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY UNCERTAINTY:
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE EVEN WITHIN ONLY 8-10 HOURS FROM POTENTIAL
ONSET, CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE LIKELIHOOD AND DURATION OF
POTENTIAL FOG IS RUNNING BELOW-AVERAGE. IN REALITY, AT LEAST
LIGHT FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW CEILING COULD DEVELOP AT ALMOST ANY
POINT MAINLY 08-16Z, WITH REALISTIC POSSIBILITIES RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM NO WORSE THAN MVFR VISIBILITY...TO PERHAPS AT
LEAST BRIEF LIFR/VLIFR IN DENSE FOG (PERHAPS FAVORING KGRI MORE
THAN KEAR). GIVEN THESE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, ADMITTEDLY
STRUGGLED WITH HOW BEST TO HANDLE IN TAFS. ULTIMATELY OPTED
TOWARD TEMPO GROUPS 10-14Z THAT PERHAPS LEAN TOWARD THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF A "MIDDLE GROUND" APPROACH, BUT AT LEAST
ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW VISIBILITY
AND/OR CEILING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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