258
FXUS63 KGID 160312
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
912 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..FIRE WEATHER AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING AT 9 PM THIS EVENING.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SEVEN
OF OUR FAR WESTERN-SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
- SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT (15% TO NEAR 60% CHANCE) MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES PLUS WINDS MAY CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 0
TO - 20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WITHIN THE LAST SEVERAL MINUTES HAVE "UPGRADED" THE PREVIOUS
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO A RED FLAG WARNING
(FOR SEVEN OF OUR WESTERN-SOUTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA). SEE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH IS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH MARKS THE TRANSITION OF
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING AND IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN
NEBRASKA AND FOR ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN TO NEAR 0 TO THE TEENS. AS UPPER LIFT
INCREASES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP (15% TO 20% CHANCE)AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY
ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY, NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SUSTAINED WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 60
MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN NEBRASKA AND FOR
ROOKS AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (15% TO NEAR 60% CHANCE)
FRIDAY PRIMARILY AFFECTING LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-
CITIES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY (70%-80% CHANCE) CREATE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ALTHOUGH
MOST PLACES WILL SEE LITTLE (A TRACE) OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION, A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S BUT
THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE FROM THE DAYTIME
BUT WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES DOWN TO
NEAR -20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO TO NEAR 10 DEGREES. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 TO AROUND -10 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WARM UP ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING DUE TO ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS
TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BUT IT MAY BE COLDER DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS OF AROUND -10 TO 5
DEGREES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY WITH
A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH MOSTLY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A WARM UP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS TO BE DRY SO FAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF/SPORADIC MVFR CONDITIONS (BOTH CEILING
AND PERHAPS VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS) COULD OCCUR MAINLY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY, BY FAR THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS...BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND SLIGHTLY ALOFT (PROMOTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/LLWS
ISSUES).
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH MOST ALL OF THESE FIRST 12-15
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING
(MAINLY 03-05Z) WHEN A LOW-END VFR/PERHAPS MVFR CEILING WILL
PASS THROUGH, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN.
GETTING BEYOND THESE FIRST 15 HOURS, ANYTIME AFTER ROUGHLY 15Z
AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
FAIRLY PERSISTENT CEILING THAT SHOULD PREVAIL LOW-END VFR (3-4K
FT.)...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP INTO MVFR RANGE (MAINLY 2-3K
FT.). IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT OF A "WILD
CARD"/UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO "STREAK" ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA FROM NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST MAINLY 18-00Z (BUT PERHAPS STARTING A BIT SOONER).
SHOULD THESE MATERIALIZE, AT LEAST BRIEF BURSTS OF LOW
VISIBILITY (AT LEAST MVFR) ARE LIKELY, BUT ANY ACTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE UNDER 1 INCH. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED DURATION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE
THIS POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
- WINDS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
THE VERY-LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD ARE RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING (ONLY AROUND 10KT FROM THE NORTHWEST).
HOWEVER, A CONSIDERABLE UPTICK IN NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR 03-05Z AS AN INITIAL "FRONTAL SURGE" ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTH. DURING THIS TIME, AT LEAST BRIEF GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45KT
ARE LIKELY. ONCE THIS INITIAL SURGE FADES, THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY 20-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
UPTICK WILL COMMENCE BY MID-LATE MORNING, WITH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FEATURING MODERATELY-STRONG SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 30KT/GUSTS AROUND 40KT.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
THE FIRST LLWS CHANCE THAT MEETS TAF-INCLUSION-CRITERIA WILL
FOCUS 02-04Z AS AN INTENSE SURGE OF NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO
AROUND 50KT ARRIVES WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2K FT. AGL, WHICH
DESPITE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A SOLID 30-35KT
OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL IN MEETING LLWS TAF CRITERIA, ANOTHER
LLWS GROUP RUNS 06-15Z AS CONTINUED SPEEDS 45-50KT BETWEEN 1-2K
FT. AGL WILL CREATE PERSISTENTLY 30+KT OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THIS LEVEL (EVEN DESPITE INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS). FINALLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH
BY/AFTER 15Z TO WEAKEN ANY LLWS BELOW TAF CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
- FRIDAY:
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE COMPARED
TO OUR "NORMAL" CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA (ONLY DROPPING AS
LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT), WE HAVE DEEMED THESE RH VALUES "CLOSE
ENOUGH"...WHEN FACTORING IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST SUSTAINED AT
LEAST 30-35 MPH/GUSTING 45-60 MPH...TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SEVEN OF
THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
ELSEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA, THE FRIDAY FIRE WEATHER THREAT
IS "NON-ZERO", BUT WE CANNOT JUSTIFY ISSUING ANY WARNINGS FOR
COUNTIES WITH MINIMUM RH AT-OR-ABOVE 30 PERCENT (THOSE COUNTIES
ARE ALSO MORE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SPOTTY/PASSING SNOW
SHOWERS).
- SATURDAY:
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES OF AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FROM DAWSON COUNTY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FURNAS AND HARLAN COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND FOR
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF DAWSON, GOSPER, AND FURNAS COUNTIES.
LIKE FRIDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR ON FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
- SUNDAY:
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DECREASE A BIT FOR SUNDAY, BUT ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 25%-30% ACROSS THOSE SAME FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-
060>062-072>075-082>084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ060-072-
073-082-083.
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005-017.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ005-017.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH/SCHULDT
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