696
FXUS63 KGID 172105
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
405 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE OVERALL-BIGGEST STORY/CONCERN OF THE NEXT WEEK STILL
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY
ALSO AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING CENTERED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT IN
TIME THAT PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE DETAILS.
- PRIOR TO SATURDAY, A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN (AT LEAST MINOR
RAIN CHANCES) HAVE WORKED THEMSELVES INTO OUR
FORECAST...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN A CHANCE FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY DAYTIME
(THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY FORECAST PERIOD).
- BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT, MUCH OF THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
IS "LITTERED" WITH VARIOUS, LOW-CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR MAINLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH WAY OUT IN TIME,
LONGER-RANGE MODELS AT LEAST HINT AT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
SEVERE STORM CHANCES AROUND WED-THURS OF NEXT WEEK?
- TEMPERATURE-WISE: CERTAINLY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR
MID-LATE JUNE, AND MOST CERTAINLY NO BIG HEAT CONCERNS. HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS ON MOST NIGHTS
IN THE MID 50S-MID 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/UNCERTAINTIES/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS:
- NO BIG/MAJOR CHANGES OF NOTE, WITH A FEW OF THE MINOR CHANGES
(MAINLY ADDITION OF A FEW RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO FRIDAY NIGHT)
OUTLINED IN KEY MESSAGE ABOVE.
- LATEST TRENDS/THOUGHTS REGARDING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT
SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAIN THREAT:
WE ARE STILL 24-36 HOURS AWAY FROM THIS TIME FRAME GETTING INTO
THE RANGE OF MOST HIGHER-RES MODELS, AND AS A RESULT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE FINER DETAILS INCLUDING MOST FAVORED
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) ALONG WITH STORM
INTENSITY/THREATS. THAT BEING SAID, A GLANCE AT MEDIUM RANGE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MAYBE A SLIGHTLY-REDUCED INTENSITY
OF CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT (MAINLY SOMEWHAT LOWER
CAPE/INSTABILITY VALUES) COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO "TAKE LITERALLY", THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE 12Z RRFS
(WHICH GOES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON) SUGGESTS WE COULD HAVE
AT LEAST SPOTTY CONVECTION (MAYBE STRONG/SEVERE?) DEVELOP OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED/LARGER-
SCALE STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NE/KS BY LATE
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD THEN IN THEORY TRACK INTO OUR CWA DURING
THE EVENING (POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT). THAT'S HONESTLY AS
MUCH "DETAIL" THIS FORECASTER IS WILLING TO GIVE FOR AN EVENT
THAT IS STILL MOSTLY 72+ HOURS AWAY, BUT AT LEAST TREND-WISE,
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION (ALSO SUPPORTED BY CSU MACHINE-LEARNING
GUIDANCE) THAT OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN CWA MAY END UP BEING MORE
"UNDER THE GUN" THAN OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH WED. JUNE
24..BUT HEAVILY FOCUSED ON TONIGHT-SUNDAY)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
CERTAINLY NO BIG SURPRISES TODAY, AS FULLY EXPECTED IT'S BEEN A
FAIRLY WINDY DAY BY MID-JUNE STANDARDS...WITH SUSTAINED NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY SPEEDS COMMONLY 15-25 MPH/GUSTS 25-35 MPH, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH (ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH).
UNDER WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT
LOW 80S NORTH...TO MID 80S CENTRAL (INCLUDING TRI CITIES)...TO
UPPER 80S-LOW 90S WITHIN COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE KS BORDER.
AS DETAILED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WE HAVE DEEMED GRASSES
(FUELS) TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY "TOO GREEN" TO JUSTIFY ANY
HIGHER-END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) BOTTOMING OUT AS LOW AS 20-25% MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, WE CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SEASONABLY-STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...FUELING A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WELL TO OUR EAST CENTERED OVER
IL/IN. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER (AROUND 992 MILLIBARS) IS TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN,
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM DRIVING OUR GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS HERE LOCALLY.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
ALTHOUGH MENTIONED AS A POSSIBILITY HERE 24 HOURS AGO, WE HAVE
NOW OFFICIALLY INTRODUCED EITHER A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS" OR
"SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA (AS FAR SOUTH AS ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 6) FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT
HOURS. THESE RAIN CHANCES ARE BEST DESCRIBED AS MINOR-BUT-
TRICKY, AS ESPECIALLY THE HRRR (WITH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS)
PAINTS A VERY NARROW, WEST-EAST ORIENTED STRIPE OF LIGHT
MEASURABLE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES,
WHILE OTHER MODELS (SUCH AS NAMNEST) ARE MORE GENEROUS BRINGING
AT LEAST SPOTTY ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. OUR
CURRENT SLIGHT/20% RAIN CHANCES IN OUR FAR NORTH MAY ULTIMATELY
NOT BE NEARLY HIGH ENOUGH, BUT AT LEAST WE NOW HAVE SOME RAIN
MENTION, AND AGAIN, WE ARE NOT TALKING HEAVY RAINFALL EITHER.
THE NARROW/BANDED NATURE OF THIS PRECIP CHANCE IS DUE TO UPPER
DYNAMICS MORE TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE COLDER SEASON (INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL JET/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS). FARTHER SOUTH, KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY OVERNIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA/KS COUNTIES, AS
ANY "TRUE" ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST
A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH OF OUR CWA (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70).
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS, WINDS WILL STEADILY DROP OFF TOWARD
SUNSET, WITH GUSTS EASING UNDER 20 MPH MOST AREAS BY 8-9 PM, AND
THEN AVERAGING ONLY 5-10 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW ABUNDANT/THICK INCOMING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE, BUT HAVE MOST AREAS BOTTOMING OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 56-61.
- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
FIRST OF ALL, THOSE SAME LIGHT/PESKY RAIN CHANCES THAT START
LATE TONIGHT HAVE BEEN LINGERED THROUGH MID-LATE THURSDAY
MORNING IN OUR LATEST FORECAST...BUT FOR NOW SIMPLY IN THE FORM
OF A "SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. CONFIDENCE
IS JUST TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE A MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCE (POP) AT
THIS POINT IN TIME (ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD END UP PICKING UP
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH)...AND CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW TO "RULE OUT" ANY AREAS
EITHER...WITH THE HRRR MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE NAMNEST IS MORE BROAD-
BRUSHED IN COVERAGE. IN SUMMARY: DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY S
FEW PASSING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THURS AM.
BY AFTERNOON, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS
CWA-WIDE AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY FOR SURE,
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MUCH OF THE DAY NOW LOOKING LIKE
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH/GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED
UP VERY SLIGHTLY, BUT SHOULD STILL END UP 3-8 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S-LOW 80S IN MOST NEBRASKA
COUNTIES, AND MID 80S IN OUR KS COUNTIES ALONG WITH FURNAS
COUNTY AREA.
THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT, MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST AS ANY
POSSIBLE LATE-NIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOST FAVORED TO DEVELOP AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LOW TEMPS MID-UPPER 50S.
- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH THESE 24 HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, WEAK UPPER WAVES
WORKING THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IN COMBINATION WITH
AT LEAST MODEST LEVELS OF INSTABILITY RETURNING NORTHWARD INTO
OUR AREA (MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY) HAS RESULTED IN THE
INTRODUCTION OF LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
DAYTIME, AND THE CONTINUATION OF CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SPC HAS REFRAINED FROM PUTTING ANY OF OUR CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME, CAPE/DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH MAINLY
A SMALLER HAIL THREAT (SOMETHING TO WATCH). TEMP-WISE, HIGHS ARE
AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY (LOW-MID 80S), BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS FRI NIGHT MAINLY UPPER 50S-MID 60S.
- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
ALREADY COVERED SOME ATTEMPTED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT DETAILS IN THE "BIG PICTURE" COMMENTS SECTION ABOVE
(REFER TO THAT IF YOU SKIPPED OVER IT), BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT ESPECIALLY THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING AS AS
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MARKED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
AT LEAST THE MID 60S...WITH LOWER-LEVEL FORCING PROVIDED BY A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. HOPEFULLY MORE EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY DETAILS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CLEAR AS
THIS TIME FRAME ENTERS THE SCOPE OF HIGHER-RES MODELS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...MAINLY LOW-MID 80S BUT WITH UPPER 80S FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE
THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH-THROUGH-
WEST OF OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT (LIKELY
CONVECTIVE-OUTFLOW DRIVEN) FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID,
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
KEEPING IT VERY BROAD-BASED/BASIC HERE, THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP US
UNDER PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH OCCASIONAL
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PASSING BY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY BUT WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SEVERE
WEATHER WISE, INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY LOW FOR MON-TUES BUT
MAYBE PICKS BACK UP FOR WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN ANY KIND OF MID- WEEK SEVERE CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS ARE CURRENTLY AIMED MID
70S-LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF (LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING) WILL LIKELY FEATURE A MID-LEVEL
CEILING AROUND 10K FT. AGL. DURING THIS SAME OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME, AND ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES OR EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL, THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
SOMEWHAT-STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON (SPEEDS
DECREASING THEREAFTER). THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 20KT/GUSTS AROUND 30KT WILL BE COMMON. BY 00Z (AND EVEN A
BIT BEFORE), A STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL COMMENCE, WITH ANY
LINGERING GUSTS 20+KT FADING AWAY BY 02Z. THEREAFTER, SPEEDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL PREVAIL
UNDER 10KT, BEFORE A MODEST INCREASE BY MID-LATE MORNING (AGAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST) WITH GUSTS 15+KT LIKELY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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