630
FXUS63 KGID 260920
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- DRY ON THANKSGIVNG DAY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ON FRIDAY IN FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW, ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF FALLING SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY FOR THOSE
TRAVELLING.
- SUNDAY TRENDING DRIER (BUT COLD), BUT MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
LINGER INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE THIS AS A WEAK BAND OF FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AT THE SURFACE,
ALMOST NO MODELS PRODUCE ANY QPF (GFS BEING THE OUTLIER).
THEREFORE NO ACCUMULATION OR WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THANKSGIVING DAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
COULD CLIP NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
SATURDAY IS THE TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR TRAVEL CONCERNS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, TURNING WINDS
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME, LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CRASH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
REFREEZING RAIN MAY LEAD TO SLICK ROAD SURFACES ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 40 MPH ON SATURDAY,
LEADING TO POOR VISIBILITY WITH ANY FALLING SNOW. ALL IN ALL,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IS MOST FAVORED TO SEE 2-3"+, WITH
AMOUNTS DECREASING FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE 07Z NBM, MOST
AREAS ARE FAVORED TO SEE BETWEEN A DUSTING AND 2" OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY POINTS ABOVE, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ARE TRENDING DRIER. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN COLD (SUBZERO WIND
CHILLS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS). ANOTHER TROUGH THEN
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LIGHTER WINDS THIS PERIOD SHOULD HELP
REDUCE THE OVERALL IMPACT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD FRONT RACED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND VERY STRONG
WINDS ARE BEING REALIZED IN ITS WAKE. GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE,
MIXING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED, AND NUMEROUS GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH (AND BECOME LESS GUSTY) THIS EVENING,
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WINDY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, AND
ONLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 15 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY, AN OVERALL SHIFT IN
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP RETURNING (LIKELY SNOW) FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS
TO BE SATURDAY, BUT SEVERAL OTHER SMALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.
STARTING OFF WITH WEDNESDAY, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP IS NOT HIGH, DID
PUT SOME SILENT NEAR 10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WOULD BE TRACE AMOUNTS, AND LIKELY JUST A
FEW FLURRIES IF REALIZED.
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, NOT A BAD DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA AS VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE 40S. AS WE TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN
KEYING IN ON A QUICK PASSING DISTURBANCE CLIPPING EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN
THERE WITH THE FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR EAST. TRACE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIP IS ALL THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED LOCALLY.
AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO SATURDAY, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AIMED TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA WITH A COLD
FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN THIS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW FOR SATURDAY
ALONG THE FRONT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THIS TO INCREASE
SOME (MAYBE 2 OR 3" IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOTS?), AND WITH THE
STRONG WINDS, THERE COULD BE SOME NOTABLE IMPACTS/REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL BEHIND SATURDAYS COLD
FRONT WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGHS LIKELY NOT TOPPING FREEZING
ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDITIONAL
SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MORE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...AND CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY VFR, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. A FEW
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES TO DEVELOP
AROUND THIS SAME TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING OR
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SITES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN A
MENTION. WINDS REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY...SPEEDS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF TONIGHT, DROPPING
CLOSER TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. LIGHT-VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FOR THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP
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