757
FXUS63 KGID 151135
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW (POTENTIALLY SEVERE) STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS EAST OF
HWY-281. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIDE OF PING
PONG BALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
- GENERALLY GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
COME BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARRIVE FOR
A SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY GIVEN STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS BLOWING NEAR 20-30 MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-45 MPH.
- TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND 90S (THROUGH SUNDAY) BEFORE
TEMPORARILY DROPPING DOWN TO THE 60S TO 70S BY TUESDAY. A
STEADY INCREASE IN HIGHS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FRIDAY: SCORCHING HOT TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS
(POSSIBLY SEVERE) MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY-281.
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE
ACTIVE. BEGINNING WITH A CENTRAL PLAINS APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATER TONIGHT, SURFACE PRESSURE WILL FALL IN ADVANCE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS. A STATIONARY FRONT, SETTING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY, WILL SERVE
AS THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUMP UP
SOME MOISTURE TO MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA,
SATURATING THE AIR MASS EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. (LOW-TO-
MID 50S DEWPOINTS). AS A RESULT, THE BEST INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (UP TO 1,000-1,5000J/KG OF CAPE &
30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR).
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 5-8PM WITH STORMS QUICKLY BUBBLING UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY FRONT AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL FALL ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY-281. THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES SHARPLY WEST OF HWY-281.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LIES ACROSS AN EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA TODAY (EAST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO AURORA IN
NEBRASKA AND DOWN TO OSBORNE IN KANSAS.) WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 60 MPH. THOUGH A BRIEF AND MORE ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF THE WINDOW OF UNCERTAINTY, THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE MORE ON THE LOWER END OF THE
SPECTRUM (<150M^2S^2 OF 0-1KM SRH WITH CAPE <1,500J/KG & LCLS
>2,000FT).
BEYOND THE EVENING STORMS, HIGHS TODAY (90S) WILL TICK SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW THE
SUN TO SHINE BRIGHT TODAY. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS (5-10 MPH) WILL
PROVIDE LITTLE IN TERMS OF PROVIDING MUCH HEAT RELIEF. SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE DEWPOINTS (<60 DEGREES) WILL, HOWEVER, HELP HEAT
INDICES FROM EXCEEDING THE MID 90S TODAY. THE HEAT RISK FOR THE
DAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MINOR/MODERATE CLASSIFICATIONS (LEVEL 1&2
OF 4).
SATURDAY/SUNDAY: MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHTTIME/OVERNIGHT STORM
COVERAGE (POSSIBLY SEVERE)
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE FULL AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROUGHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL BEGIN TO BITE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND,
SENDING IN A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED WEAKER STORMS COULD GET STARTED EARLIER IN THE
DAY SATURDAY AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN OVERNIGHT WAVE/STORM CLUSTER,
THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY WILL BE CONCENTRATED
DURING A BROAD 7PM-6AM TIME FRAME AS A MESSY CLUSTER OF STORMS
IN MIXED STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL FEED OFF OF A MODEST AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY (2,000-3,500J/KG OF CAPE), SHEAR (30-40KTS OF BULK
SHEAR) AND SURGING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM
FRONT (MID 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS). AS A RESULT, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FULL AREA
(SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AREAS AND FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS). THE BROAD WINDOW OF POSSIBILITY (7PM-6AM)
COMES AS SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO POINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAKING
SHAPE ACROSS THE NIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CHOOSE MORE OF A SCATTERED/DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE MODE (SUPERCELLS). AT THIS POINT IN TIME, TORNADO
PARAMETERS LOOK TO JUST MEET BASELINE CRITERIA RATHER THAN POINT
TOWARDS A MORE HIGHER END SORT OF EVENT (MORE SO ONE OR TWO
GENERALLY WEAKER TORNADOES POSSIBLE).
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS/NEBRASKA
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE MODEST INSTABILITY (2,000-3,5000J/KG OF
CAPE) AND INCREASED MOISTURE (50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS) AROUND
FOR AT LEAST FOR ONE MORE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AS A RESULT, MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LOOK TO COME AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE STORMS MAY INITIALIZE
SUNDAY WILL BE THE NORTH TO SOUTH POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL OVERALL CONTROL WHERE THE
FRONTS ALIGN AND WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
SETTLE (COLD FRONT, WARM FRONT & DRYLINE). BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS, A MORE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE LOW HINTS AT A FURTHER
NORTHWARD CONCENTRATION OF STORM ACTIVITY (BEST POTENTIAL NORTH
OF I-80). AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY RESIDES
OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK COVERING THE REST OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AREAS.
BEYOND THE STORM CHANCES SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHY OF TODAY ON SATURDAY (HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S) WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS (10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25MPH). EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE AREA (20-30MPH
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE). EVEN DESPITE THE
WEEKEND MOISTURE RESURGENCE, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (DRIEST CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST).
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL SPREAD THE UPPER 80S AND 90S (MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 50 DEGREES ALONG HIGHWAY 24 IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING EAST HAVE TAKEN THE TOP END OFF THE TEMPERATURES
TODAY THOUGH IT IS STILL WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL. TO THAT END,
THERE IS SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED STORM, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER SIDE OF 6 PM. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS WEAK AND
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DON'T HELP. SO, ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN SCOPE/COVERAGE, AND LIKELY ONLY
MARGINALLY STRONG/SEVERE AT MOST. HIGHER-BASED WIND PRODUCERS
WOULD MAIN HAZARD.
FRIDAY IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AS
THE REGION CATCHING MUCH MORE SUNSHINE THAT TODAY, THOUGH LESS
WIND. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH. THAT FRONT HAS BIT MORE PUSH THAN
TODAY, AND WILL HAVE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. AREAS
EAST AND SOUTH OF HASTINGS LOOK LIKE A MORE FAVORED AREA FOR
A STRONGER/SEVERE STORM WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
FACTORS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS FAIRLY SMALL, PROBABLY
ABOUT 4-5 PM TO 8-9 PM BEFORE STORMS MOVE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FRONT RETREATS.
THE WEEKEND IS INTERESTING FROM A WEATHER STANDPOINT, BUT ALSO
WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY. MOST OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY INCLUDED
IN A SLIGHT TO POTENTIALLY ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES PROVIDING BETTER DYNAMICS AND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO INCREASE THOUGH IT COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GROUND IS SO DRY IN SOME AREAS
THANKS TO D3/D4 DROUGHT. WHILE THERE ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER
RAIN...AND THERE WILL BE RAIN...IT MAY NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE, NOR
IS IT A RAIN OUT. IN FACT, WE ARE FORECASTING NEAR 100 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, AND THAT DOESN'T EXACTLY SAY LOTS OF
CLOUDS/RAIN. RIGHT NOW, THE FAVORED TIMES FOR STORMS ARE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE DAYS TREND TOWARD
MORE DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS OR SERIES OF STORMS WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AND
IT IS GOING TO CHANGE WITH TIME SO STAY TUNED.
THE OTHER THING OF INTEREST, BUT ALSO UNCERTAINTY, IS THE
HEAT AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH GREEN UP IN SOME AREAS, THE 100 DEGREE HEAT POTENTIAL
WOULD TRANSLATE INTO EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER, IF CONVECTION
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AREAS OCCURS, IT COULD
ALTER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WIND SET UP. STILL 72 HOURS
AWAY, THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH TIME. FYI, THE CURRENT
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WOULD BE RECORD BREAKING
FOR GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS.
ON MONDAY, A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THAT COULD BRING
ONE FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER
THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH CLOSER TOO OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETREATING AT THE
SAME TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN AT KEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A LIMITED CHANCE OF STORMS (20-30% CHANCE) BETWEEN 22-0Z
THAT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AT KGRI. ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA, LEAVING A FAIRLY SHORT
WINDOW OF IMPACT.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN LIGHT
(GUSTS LESS THAN 15KTS). WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE MORNING WILL
BEGIN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED WINDS BY TONIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MORITZ
AVIATION...STUMP
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