802
FXUS63 KGID 292340
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 TODAY UNTIL 9 PM.
- SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
DETAILS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS.
- SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ON JULY 4TH. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ARE UNDER THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
HEATING UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 FOR MANY
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS
AREA IS IN A HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
ALL OF THIS HEAT AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY HIGH
CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON (OVER 1,000 J/KG TO OVER 5,000 J/KG). 0
TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH (25 TO 50 KNOTS). MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8+ DEGREES C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS AND AN ADDITIONAL
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONDITIONS. THE HINDERING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CAP TO OVERCOME ANY ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. IF
STORMS OVERCOME THE CAP, THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 2 AM.
THE 12Z NAM IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (IT SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NEBRASKA). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM WOULD BE HAIL UP TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 50% TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES (MOSTLY BETWEEN 3,000 TO
4,000+ J/KG), WIND SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8+ DEGREES C/KM. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT FROM THE DAY BEFORE. SOME MODELS DON'T SHOW
ANY STORMS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE UP TO AROUND 50% TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AS ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON (UP TO 20% CHANCE) AND EVENING/OVERNIGHT (UP TO NEAR 60%
CHANCE). A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS SO NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN
MORE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. TEMPERATURES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO HEAT UP EVEN MORE (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80) ON
SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY) IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
DEGREE OF HEATING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD REACH 105 DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80) SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE,
WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTS THE AREA, WITH GENERALLY SW WINDS
IN THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO INITIATE CONVECTION TO
THE SW OF THE TERMINALS, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO KEAR/KGRI
BETWEEN 01-04Z, INDICATED WITH THE TEMPO GROUP. SOME LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 03-06Z, LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SIT BELOW SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION OF THIS
WIND SHEAR IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS THE SURFACE WINDS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN DURING THIS WINDOW.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS AROUND
5-10KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-064-076-
077-086-087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCOTT
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