184
FXUS63 KGID 180748
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
248 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
- SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 80S.
- LARGELY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING, HELPING TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES
FROM BEING AS COOL AS THEY WERE SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT SEE
WEAKER WINDS WILL STILL DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S, BUT WIDESPREAD
FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB THIS MORNING, AIDED BY BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S.
DUE TO THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. LOWER HUMIDITY, WARM TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COLDEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LIGHTER WINDS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WEAK SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY FROM A
PASSING DISTURBANCE. DAYS WITH BREEZY WINDS COULD BRING A RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT INCREASING DEWPOINTS COULD KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONCERNS. HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AS A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY (SATURDAY) THROUGH TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EARLIER THIS MORNING,
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE A QUICK RECOVERY TODAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. THIS WARMUP HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSISTED BY STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS ACROSS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS
LOW AS THIS PAST MORNING (OVERNIGHT LOWS: MID 30S TO MID 40S), A FEW
AREAS OF FROST MAY STILL BE ABLE TO FORM TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEST OR NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES.
ALOFT, RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION SHIFTS EAST AND
OVER INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., CLEARING SKIES AND SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUBSIDENCE. WINDS SPEEDING NEAR 15-
20MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH THIS AFTERNOON COME AS
YESTERDAY'S STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LEAVES BEHIND A COMPRESSED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AS
WELL, HELPING HIGHS BREAK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S (ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE).
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS (LREF MEMBERS) CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TIMING AND INTENSITY OF HOW
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN INTENSIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SHOULD TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY
TO EXPAND UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE
NEXT PATTERN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BUILDING TROUGH WORKS TO PUSH THE RIDGING PATTERN OUT. IN ADDITION,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/SATURDAY). GIVEN
THE ABSENCE IF ANY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGING PATTERN, BROAD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. LLWS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED 10-15KTS AND
GUSTING 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
STRONGEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCT HIGH CIRRUS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page