842
FXUS63 KGID 262341
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW PLACES OF FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TO FORM TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE TOTAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, ANY
LOCATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL AT LEAST HAVE
SOME POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEATING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK SUNDAY (90S WITH A FEW ISOLATED PLACES IN THE
LOW 100S) WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 106 DEGREES.
- HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL LOOK TO MAINLY
RANGE THE 90S.
- THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (>25% CHANCE) DOES NOT
COME UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT (25-45% CHANCES CONCENTRATED TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY HAVE HELPED KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR ONE LAST TIME THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL LATER HELP WARM THINGS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, STABLE CONDITIONS FROM ZONAL (WEST TO EAST)
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY LATER TONIGHT APPROACH THE VICINITY OF A
FEW WEST CENTRAL NE/KS AREAS. THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY FOR THESE
STORMS TO REACH FAR PAST OUR WESTERN EDGE (DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS
COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND PHILLIPS/ROOKS IN KANSAS), A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF STORM OR SHOWER CAN'T BE 100% RULED OUT
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE). IN ALL LIKELINESS, THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THEIR LAST LEG IF NOT JUST SHOWERS BY THE TIME
OF THEIR POTENTIAL ARRIVAL (AROUND 10PM-3AM).
THE ONLY LAST FEATURE TO HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT FULLY CALM OVERNIGHT, SPEEDS DROPPING LESS
THAN 10MPH WITH BROAD SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 60S), MAY LEAD TO A FEW
AREAS OF CONDENSATION OR IN OTHER WORDS, FOG FORMATION. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME, TEND TO FAVOR EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FOR THE "DENSEST" OR BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT. THOUGH THE FOG POTENTIAL REALLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET
HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
SHIFT, HOWEVER, IF CERTAIN MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, ONE MAY BE
CONSIDERED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND: THE HEAT...
DESPITE SOME MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL BEGIN A WEEKEND WARMUP, STRETCHING INTO THE 80S TO LOW
90S SATURDAY AND THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY (GENERALLY
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA). THIS MULTI-DAY WARMUP WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY AT
TIMES BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH,
POSSIBLY EVEN A TAD BIT HIGHER AT TIMES). THIS STRONG SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ADDITIONALLY FEED IN MOISTURE ON TOP OF
THE WARM AIRMASS (60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS), ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NE/KS. THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN
INFLATED HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING THE MID 90S (FAR WEST AREAS)
ALL THE WAY UP TO 106 DEGREES (FAR EAST AREAS WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT).
AS FAR AS THE HEAT RISK FOR SUNDAY GOES, THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATIONS (LEVELS
2&3 OUT OF 4). EVEN THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE SOME
HEAT RELIEF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE
ABLE TO LIMIT THE SOLAR FLUX MUCH. THE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST (AN INDEX TO MEASURE THE SOLAR/WIND CONTRIBUTION/INFLUENCE
TO/ON HEAT RELIEF) ALSO SHOWS VALUES IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH
CLASSIFICATIONS (LEVEL 3&4 OUT OF 5). THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY WAS HELD OFF FOR NOW (FORECAST NEARING CRITERIA), THIS HEAT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE FAIRLY IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY TO INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT AN EFFECTIVE HYDRATION OR COOLING SOURCE.
BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
SLATED TO RETURN AS A NORTHWEST U.S. CENTERED TROUGH PROVOKES
HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, A
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, PARTIALLY
HALTING THE TROUGHS EASTWARD MOMENTUM. THIS ULTIMATELY SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LITTLE MORE NUANCE ENTERS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS CAN STILL BE MADE. THE MAIN SIGNAL THAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW MERIT IS WITH THE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO MAINLY STAY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S. BESIDES THE HOT TEMPERATURES, A DRIER PATTERN MAY ALSO LIE
ON THE HORIZON. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST LIE MONDAY
NIGHT (10-45%) AND TUESDAY (25-45%) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SWEEPS BY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL DETAILS REGARDING
THESE STORM'S TOTAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE STILL TO BE IRONED
OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIGS LOWERING AND
BECOMING MVFR LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY AFT 27/06Z...WITH SOME
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT BR/-DZ TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE. THESE
IFR/NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 27/15Z AND WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE FINALLY
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ROSSI
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