242
FXUS63 KGID 231210
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: MAINLY SPOTTY SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY WHAT SHOULD BE A
MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA)
TONIGHT.
- THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AM: ALTHOUGH IT WON'T RAIN NON-STOP,
THESE ~ 48 HOURS WILL FEATURE VARIOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY WEAK STORMS. INCLUDING WHAT FALLS TONIGHT, CUMULATIVE
RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE LIKELY MOST AREAS, WITH MORE
LOCALIZED 3-4+" AMOUNTS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON: THIS LOOKS LIKE A
MOSTLY DRY STRETCH AS WE RESIDE IN BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS...A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP A LITTLE WITH HIGH
TEMPS MORE SOLIDLY BACK INTO THE 70S-80S.
- OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST (ALBEIT A MUCH "QUICKER HITTER"
THAN THE FIRST ONE) LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG?) CENTERED MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY (OBVIOUSLY LOTS OF DETAILS YET TO IRON
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE).
- BEYOND TUESDAY (INCLUDING THE REST OF NEXT WEEK): AT LEAST
FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE SUSTAINED STRETCH OF MAINLY
DRY WEATHER...SOMETHING THAT WILL SURELY BE WELCOMED BY MANY
AND NOT JUST THOSE TRYING TO SWING INTO HARVEST SEASON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS INCLUDING
ANYTHING BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HOURS (BEYOND THURSDAY):
- CLEARLY THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE NEXT WEEK IS STILL THE
VARIOUS/INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES CENTERED ON TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT AM WITH MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS (THAT HASN'T
CHANGED). HOWEVER, AS HIGHER-RES MODELS (SUCH AS RRFS)
GRADUALLY START TO COVER MORE OF THIS TIME FRAME, THIS
FORECASTER IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED THAT WE'LL
PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST SMALL/LOCALIZED POCKETS OF THE CWA
(WHERE EXACTLY IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN) THAT GET A
LITTLE TOO MUCH RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 3-4+". GIVEN THAT MOST OF
THIS WILL BE SPREAD OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW
DAYS, WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SURE SEEMS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER, MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, AND
CANNOT ARGUE WITH WPC ASSIGNING OUR ENTIRE CWA A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON BOTH THE DAY 2/3 OUTLOOKS.
- ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL TOO FAR OUT
IN TIME TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS, STILL THINK THAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEARS WATCHING FOR MAYBE A "SNEAKY"
STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA (AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RRFS). SPC HAS OPTED
TO KEEP THIS PERIOD "GENERAL THUNDER" FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE, WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE LATER OUTLOOKS
CONSIDER A MARGINAL RISK.
- WHILE CERTAINLY FAR TOO OUT IN TIME TO PROVIDE ANY KIND OF
CONFIDENT DETAIL, OUR NEXT BIGGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ROLL THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY EVENING-TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
(POSSIBLY AT LEAST STRONG/PERHAPS SEVERE BASED ON VERY
PRELIMINARY MACHINE-LEARNING (ML) GUIDANCE), FOLLOWED BY WHAT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRIER AND MORE "TRUE" FALL-LIKE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN FACT...THERE ARE VERY EARLY HINTS (DO
NOT BY ANY MEANS TAKE THIS TO THE BANK) THAT WED. SEPT. 30
COULD BE OUR FIRST MORNING THIS FALL WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40S.
-- SHORTER-TERM DETAILS FOCUSED ONLY ON THESE NEXT 36 HOURS
(THROUGH THURS DAYTIME:)
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
NO BIG SURPRISES OVERNIGHT-EARLY THIS AM, AS DESPITE MINIMAL
FORCING ALOFT...SUBTLE MID LEVEL LIFT/WARM-AIR ADVECTION HAS
CAUSED DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITHIN OUR NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
BREEZES ARE GENERALLY 8-15 MPH OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH
LOW TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY MID-UPPER 50S.
- TODAY:
LEANING HEAVILY ON SHORTER-TERM/HIGHER-RES MODELS (SUCH AS
HRRR), THE SHORT STORY IS THAT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING FROM WEST-
TO-EAST ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING (ALSO ENDING FROM WEST-TO-
EAST IN THE PROCESS). THIS AFTERNOON THEN LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY (IF
NOT ENTIRELY) DRY ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEAVILY
DICTATED BY HOW EFFICIENTLY LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY
ERODES/SCATTERS OUT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.
SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH SUN/PARTIAL CLEARING, BUT
GIVEN THAT TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY "OVERACHIEVED" THE LAST FEW DAYS
IF ANYTHING, OPTED TO NUDGE UP HIGHS SLIGHTLY, AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MAINLY LOW 70S NORTHEAST...TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST
(MAYBE EVEN 80 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN PHILLIPS/ROOKS/OSBORNE).
WINDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH BREEZY STATUS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST...GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH/GUSTS 20-30 MPH
(OVERALL-STRONGEST WEST).
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
AS THE FIRST OF A "PARADE" OF LOW AMPLITUDE BUT MOISTURE-LADEN
DISTURBANCES RIDES INTO OUR REGION OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AREAS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD
MORE AND MORE OF OUR CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON (HIGHEST
CHANCES/COVERAGE EXPECTED NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT). LOW TEMPS
SHOULD HOLD UP SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHT...MAINLY UPPER
50S-LOW 60S.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME:
THOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION (IN
FACT THE LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF OUR CWA COULD MAYBE HAVE A MOSTLY DRY
AFTERNOON), THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS IS THAT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
AROUND AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA (IF NOT MOST OF IT) THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, SO PLAN ON WET WEATHER AND BE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED IF
YOU CATCH SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
CLOUD/PRECIP, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID-UPPER 60S AT
BEST MOST OF OUR CWA, WITH ANY POSSIBLE 70S MOST FAVORED IN OUR
KS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FOR OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA (MAINLY VALLEY, GREELEY, AND
NORTHERN NANCE) AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
EXITS NE TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A ROUGHLY NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF HWY 183 AS 850-MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
COINCIDENT WITH A 40-KT LLJ OVER WEST-CENTRAL NE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S. LATEST 18Z HRRR AND RRFS
GUIDANCE ATTEMPT TO PUT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT THIS WILL REMAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK
GIVEN A LACK OF A SURFACE INVERSION.
WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AROUND MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW-TO-UPPER
70S. DAYTIME HOURS WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY, WITH OUR WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN CWA ABLE TO SEE GUSTS OF 25 - 30 MPH AS SOME OF THE
LEFTOVER LLJ MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AROUND SUNDOWN
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE NEXT 500- MB MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
START TO IMPINGE ON OUR CWA, OVERLYING A REDEVELOPING LLJ / WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET OFF A MORE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON-AND-OFF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN RAIN
WILL GET GOING IN OUR AREA, WITH MOST 12Z CAMS SUGGESTING LATER
IN THE NIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE 12Z GFS AND
EURO TRY TO START RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP (60 - 80%) ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO HOLD
NORTH OF I-80. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
THURSDAY
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH A STATIONARY MID-
LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR OUR REPEATING BOUTS OF
RAIN. THIS RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
STRATIFORM IN NATURE, AS MOST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MINIMAL-TO-
NO CAPE FOR SHOWERS TO WORK WITH. DESPITE NO REAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, 1 - 1.5+ INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SIMPLY
BECAUSE OF THE DURATION OF PRECIP. WPC CURRENTLY HOLDS US IN A
LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND
LATEST 12Z EPS AND GEFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOMETIME EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THE FIRST STATIONARY JET MAXIMUM WILL GET PULLED
OFF TO THE EAST BY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, WHILE THE NEXT
JET IN THE WAVE TRAIN SETS BACK UP OVER NE. AS THIS NEXT MID-
LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES AND GRADUALLY PASSES, OUR ON-AND-OFF PRECIP
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY LOOKS BEST FOR SOME THUNDER TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AS THE
12Z RRFS AND 12Z GFS BOTH TRY TO DEVELOP A SMALL BIT OF MLCAPE
OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH
ALOFT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP, SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY SPIKE AGAIN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE CWA
ABLE TO REACH 25 - 30 MPH ONCE MORE.
WHILE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT THAT OUR PRECIP-DOMINATED PATTERN WILL END
AROUND SATURDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO A DRY BUT RELATIVELY
WARMER WEEKEND. AS A POTENTIAL WORST-CASE SCENARIO THROUGH THE
EVENT, 13Z NBM 95TH PERCENTILE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS BY
SATURDAY MORNING SIT RIGHT AROUND 2.5 - 3.25 INCHES. PROJECTED
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND HAVE CONTINUED TO UPTREND RATHER
SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH LATEST INDICATIONS OF WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S
TO EVEN MID 80S FOR OUR KS COUNTIES. STILL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
THAT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.
FINALLY, WHILE A WAYS OUT STILL, LET'S KEEP AN EYE ON NEXT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR A POTENTIAL RETURN TO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE CLASSIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY ARRIVE IN THE
CONUS LATE NEXT MONDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS AND EPS ALIKE,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SEASONAL THUNDERSTORM SETUP. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
BY FAR THE MOST PRESSING (AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE) AVIATION
CONCERN IS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF CONTINUED SUB-VFR
CEILING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR PASSING SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CEILING AT SOME
POINT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE). AS
FOR WINDS, DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINLY HOLD
AT-OR-BELOW 12KT, BUT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS A FEW KT EITHER SIDE OF 15KT
COMMON, AND GUSTS 20-25KT. GETTING BACK TO THOSE POSSIBLE
CHANCES FOR PASSING SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW WEAK STORMS, THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THEY COULD ARRIVE ALREADY THIS EVENING, BUT
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE LATER IN THE NIGHT HAVE ASSIGNED THE ONLY
PROB30 GROUP TO THE FINAL 6 HOURS (06-12Z).
- CEILING TRENDS/UNCERTAINTIES:
AS IT TURNED OUT (AND AFTER LOSING CONFIDENCE IN IT SOMEWHAT
WITH THE PREVIOUS 06Z ISSUANCE), A WIDESPREAD BATCH OF IFR
STRATUS CEILINGS DID INDEED BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA WITHIN 1-2
HOURS OF 06Z ISSUANCE, AND REMAINS VERY MUCH PRESENT AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST/ALL OF THIS MORNING, BEFORE A GRADUAL
LIFTING OF CEILING TO MVFR AND THEN (IN THEORY) A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY AROUND 19-20Z AS LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND/OR SCATTER
OUT. THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILING MAINLY AT-OR-ABOVE
5K FT. HOWEVER, VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD (06-12Z), PASSING
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO SUB-VFR,
AND THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT AT LEAST AN MVFR (PERHAPS
AN IFR?) CEILING COULD TRY TO RETURN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING
VFR FOR NOW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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