191
FXUS63 KGID 172245
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY NW OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY POKE THEIR WAY INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE TO ST PAUL (20-30% CHANCE). MOST OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA
(20-40% CHANCE).
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 80S-90S FRIDAY, RETURNING
BACK TO THE 60S-70S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MAIN UPPER-
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEATURING A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US AND A TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY POCKETS TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA, BRINGING MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TODAY...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
IN RESPONSE TO A VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S-80S FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO THE LOW 90S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS LESS DENSE.
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO
THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
POKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM CAMBRIDGE TO ST PAUL.
TOMORROW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW, SUPPORTED BY EFI-SOT VALUES OF 0.6-0.7 (WHICH IS A
MEASURE OF HOW EXTREME MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY). FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S TO 90S, COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RESIDING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER,
IF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS STICK AROUND
LONGER, REALIZED TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20-40%) COMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS MODELS DEPICT A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT WILL FORCE
CONVECTION. SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KT MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND ...
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
AREA. THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO CONCLUDE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS THE MAIN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTICABLY DECLINE
THIS WEEKEND, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S-80S SATURDAY AND
60S-70S INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND THEN
IMPROVE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THIS IS ROUGHLY 03-10Z.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUST
OVER 20KTS INTO FRIDAY, BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE LATER AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCOTT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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