191
FXUS63 KGID 211145
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING. A MORE ROBUST AND
WIDESPREAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (BEST POTENTIAL BETWEEN
3-11AM FRIDAY).
- AROUND 0.25-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND (STARTING FRIDAY EVENING) SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S WILL GRADUALLY RAISE UP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AGAIN BY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL
RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THE LATE NIGHT TO FRIDAY
MORNING TIMEFRAME (BEST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 3-11AM). THE AREA
CONTINUES TO RESIDE UNDERNEATH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. A MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TAKING PLACE TODAY FROM AN ADVANCING SOUTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH
CENTERED JET STREAK, WILL DISLODGE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL KICK UP A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING (FROM A MIX OF ISENTROPIC AND CVA BASED ASSENT). BETWEEN
0.25-0.5" OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO FALL ACROSS THE
OVERNIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD (THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST). THOUGH
MODEST SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE (40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR), WEAK INSTABILITY
(<500J/KG OF MUCAPE) FROM A LESS THAN IDEAL THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
(<7C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES), SHOULD GENERALLY DOUSE OUT ANY SORT
OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL (A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE).
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END LATER FRIDAY MORNING TO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
IN A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA ~10-20%). BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY WILL TAKE A STEADY RIDE
UP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY SUNDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE BEING FLUSHED
OUT BY THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL SPIN THE WINDS AROUND FROM A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW
25MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
A BAND OF RAIN IS STEADILY LIFTING NORTH, CURRENTLY IMPACTING AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA. AS THIS BAND EXITS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MID EVENING HOURS. ALOFT THE AREA IS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A
PASSING DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OVERALL HIGHEST CHANCES (35-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
ON THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
(MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183). WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE KEEPS THE AREA COOL ON THURSDAY, CONFINING HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
CONSISTENT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
281 IN NEBRASKA. FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH
NOT EVERYWHERE WILL BE A "WASHOUT". RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE RESULTS
IN ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60S. A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON(WEST)-NIGHT(EAST),
WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OVERALL HIGHEST
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FAVOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE A 50-60% CHANCE FOR 0.5" OR MORE OF RAIN.
ANY RAIN EXITS THE AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.
SATURDAY ONWARDS...
SUNSHINE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL, IN
THE LOW-MID 70S. WHILE THE FORECAST CURRENTLY REMAINS DRY, ONE LAST
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOW/LIGHT POPS TO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM, RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND-
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT IS DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
MODEL SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A BUSY AVIATION FORECAST TODAY COMES AS SCATTERED SHOWERS, LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL ALL BE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE NEXT 24-HOURS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO, A DRY FORECAST (<15%
CHANCES) IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY (LIKELY LONGER
FOR KGRI) WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOMING IN THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z (POSSIBLY ~25% CHANCE IN THE KEAR AREA BETWEEN
21-0Z). A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN 2-6
(20-40% CHANCES) WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN
BETWEEN 6-10Z (60-80% CHANCES) WITH PRECIPITATION VERY LIKELY
AROUND 10-12Z (>80% CHANCES). A QUICK RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT IN THE DAY (BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT),
THOUGH STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
AS FOR CEILINGS, CLOUD COVERAGE BUILDING IN BETWEEN 12-18Z THIS
MORNING WILL DEVELOP CEILING TO AS LOW A 5,000FT WITH MVFR
CEILING MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER 22Z (LOW-END MVFR CEILING
LIKELY AFTER 0Z). IFR CEILING WILL BE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND
2Z WITH LOW-END IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY AFTER
4Z. CEILING AS LOW AS 200-400FT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH 9Z
WITH HEIGHTS RISING AGAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
FRIDAY.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM RAIN SHOWERS (AS LOW AS 3-5SM) WILL
BE POSSIBLE OF 5Z.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY
(MAINLY BETWEEN 120-160 DEGREES) WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15KTS AND
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS TO OCCASIONALLY 25KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...STUMP
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