422
FXUS63 KGID 241951
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 4PM TO 10PM. A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH, ALTHOUGH
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS WELL.
- THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED T-STORMS AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WITH CONTINUED OFF/ON CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE
MAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEPENING CUMULUS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO MONITOR AS IT SLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. CAMS INDICATE THAT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY
ISOLATED, BUT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF
THESE TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE (MUCAPE 1500-2000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ~30KTS). RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AS WELL. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD FADE BY 9-10PM
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
MONDAY WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, AND MANY
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE LOW 90S, AIDED BY A STEADY
SOUTH WIND. ISOLATED STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH CAMS
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE SANDHILLS,
POTENTIALLY NUDGING INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW, SO AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS EVEN LESS LIKELY THAN TODAY.
TUESDAY IS FAVORED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST.
OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY EJECTS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE "MESSY" WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFIC DETAILS. BUT, AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY MESSAGES, THE
SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY THREATENING. THE GEFS
CSU-MLP SEVERE PROBS REMAIN BELOW 5% THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
PROBABLY PARTLY INFLUENCED BY UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, BUT IS STILL WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
(~10%) FOR LATE MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ONLY A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WIND REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS IS
EXPECTED IN THE 04-13Z TIMEFRAME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
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