367
FXUS63 KGID 111117
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- WARM, DRY, AND OFTENTIMES WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR THE TIME BEING. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT.
TODAY, WE START OFF A STRING OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S, AIDED BY A STEADY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH. BUT THIS WON'T HAVE A HUGE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES (UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-80 AND 80S
EVERYWHERE ELSE).
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD KEEPS WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES TO THE EAST.
THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY WARM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
THE NBM SEEMS TO BE ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...BUT THAT HAS
BEEN THE TREND SO FAR THIS SPRING. REGARDLESS OF IF WE END UP
IN THE UPPER 80S OR 90S, THE TAKE- HOME MESSAGE IS THAT IT WILL
BE QUITE WARM.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN/T-STORMS (20-30%) THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S DISCUSSION,
WE POTENTIALLY COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN (POSSIBLY WITH
SOME SEVERE) STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
BUT KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OUR WETTEST PORTION
OF THE YEAR (0.15-0.20" PER DAY ON-AVERAGE), AND GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES STILL FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL RAIN TOTALS DURING THIS
PERIOD. REGARDLESS, SOME RAIN IS CERTAINLY BETTER THAN NOTHING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
OVERALL, A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG
WITH MODEST BREEZES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 8 KFT, LIKELY LITTLE PRECIP
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. THAT SAID, DID INTRODUCE A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SPRINKLES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE AS
ORD DID MANAGE TO REPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS PAST HOUR. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA MONDAY, EXPECT A RETURN OF OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND
BREEZES BECOME GUSTY (TO NEAR 35 MPH) AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WENT AHEAD AND
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AREAS OF MOST CONCERN, ALTHOUGH FULLY
EXPECT AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE AREA,
THAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN A SHIFT IN WINDS AND SOME PASSING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REALLY RAMP FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR (OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE)
90 LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP RETURNS TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THERE
ARE SIGNS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH THE EC/GFS ENSEMBLES
INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING...A MORE
PROMISING OUTLOOK THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED 24 HOURS AGO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE,
LEADING TO LLWS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 25-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY HIGHER IN NEBRASKA THAN IN KANSAS). TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 80S, PUSHING HUMIDITY DOWN TO NEAR/BELOW 20% ACROSS.
AS A RESULT, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN AREAS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HAVE FUELS THAT ARE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE GROWTH.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL NOT A
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN. NORTHERN AREAS MAY END UP IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S, BUT PORTIONS OF KANSAS SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER
80S. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY
WITH HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 15-20% RANGE. NORTH WINDS GUST
20-30 MPH, RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY WARM AND DRY, BUT WILL FEATURE A REPRIEVE IN
WINDS FOR SOME OF THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, WESTERN ZONES (NEAR/WEST
OF HIGHWAY 183) ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY IS POTENTIALLY SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST CONCERNING FIRE
WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM WE
WILL ACTUALLY GET, BUT MANY AREAS COULD APPROACH/EXCEED 90 DEGREES,
AIDED BY VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH IN
SOME AREAS.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS THAN
THURSDAY, BUT STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY.
THE WEEKEND ALSO HAS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10%) FOR A WETTING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE (30%) SATURDAY NIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...MANGELS
FIRE WEATHER...MANGELS
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