466
FXUS63 KGID 271136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
VISIBILITY AROUND 1 MILE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN FOG.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH DAY.
- THE OVERALL HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WHERE
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 COULD EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
LOW STRATUS IS GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS
THIS STRATUS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG IS
FAVORED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. HOW DENSE AND THE EXACT COVERAGE
OF FOG REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN PART DUE TO WINDS BEING SLIGHTLY
STRONGER THAN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITY
AROUND 1 MILE IS POSSIBLE IN FOG, BUT CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, FOG IS FAVORED TO CLEAR BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS (9-10AM). LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA LONGER. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL KEEP HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS THESE STORMS REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STORM CLIPPING FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (LEXINGTON-ORD) LATE THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING IN THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF HOT DAYS TO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SOAR INTO
THE 90S, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BIGGEST FORECAST QUESTION
SUNDAY ONWARDS WILL BE REGARDING POTENTIAL THE NEED FOR HEAT
HEADLINES ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS EACH DAY
INCREASE AS ONE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S (WEST) TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (EAST).
SUNDAY REMAINS THE DAY MOST LIKELY TO SEE AN OVERLAP/THE GREATEST
OVERLAP OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S IN THE WEST, TO THE LOW-MID 100S
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR SUNDAY
MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS (HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEGREES) PRECLUDES A HEADLINE
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. AREAS MOST FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE THESE
CONDITIONS ARE WELL HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT WHICH
PLACES EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A LEVEL 3 OR "MAJOR" RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS & HEAT INDICES SHIFT
JUST EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY ONWARDS, THOUGH HEAT STILL REMAINS
IMPACTFUL. TO SUM UP: THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES TODAY HAVE HELPED KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR ONE LAST TIME THIS WEEK. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL LATER HELP WARM THINGS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, STABLE CONDITIONS FROM ZONAL (WEST TO EAST)
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
A FEW SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON MAY LATER TONIGHT APPROACH THE VICINITY OF A
FEW WEST CENTRAL NE/KS AREAS. THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY FOR THESE
STORMS TO REACH FAR PAST OUR WESTERN EDGE (DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS
COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND PHILLIPS/ROOKS IN KANSAS), A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF STORM OR SHOWER CAN'T BE 100% RULED OUT
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE). IN ALL LIKELINESS, THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THEIR LAST LEG IF NOT JUST SHOWERS BY THE TIME
OF THEIR POTENTIAL ARRIVAL (AROUND 10PM-3AM).
THE ONLY LAST FEATURE TO HIGHLIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT FULLY CALM OVERNIGHT, SPEEDS DROPPING LESS
THAN 10MPH WITH BROAD SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING NEAR THEIR DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 60S), MAY LEAD TO A FEW
AREAS OF CONDENSATION OR IN OTHER WORDS, FOG FORMATION. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME, TEND TO FAVOR EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FOR THE "DENSEST" OR BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
TONIGHT. THOUGH THE FOG POTENTIAL REALLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET
HIGH ENOUGH TO CONSIDER THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
SHIFT, HOWEVER, IF CERTAIN MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, ONE MAY BE
CONSIDERED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TONIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND: THE HEAT...
DESPITE SOME MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE ON SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL BEGIN A WEEKEND WARMUP, STRETCHING INTO THE 80S TO LOW
90S SATURDAY AND THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY (GENERALLY
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA). THIS MULTI-DAY WARMUP WILL MAINLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY AT
TIMES BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH,
POSSIBLY EVEN A TAD BIT HIGHER AT TIMES). THIS STRONG SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ADDITIONALLY FEED IN MOISTURE ON TOP OF
THE WARM AIRMASS (60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS), ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NE/KS. THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN
INFLATED HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING THE MID 90S (FAR WEST AREAS)
ALL THE WAY UP TO 106 DEGREES (FAR EAST AREAS WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT).
AS FAR AS THE HEAT RISK FOR SUNDAY GOES, THE AREA IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO RANGE MODERATE TO HIGH HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATIONS (LEVELS
2&3 OUT OF 4). EVEN THOUGH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE SOME
HEAT RELIEF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE
ABLE TO LIMIT THE SOLAR FLUX MUCH. THE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST (AN INDEX TO MEASURE THE SOLAR/WIND CONTRIBUTION/INFLUENCE
TO/ON HEAT RELIEF) ALSO SHOWS VALUES IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH
CLASSIFICATIONS (LEVEL 3&4 OUT OF 5). THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY WAS HELD OFF FOR NOW (FORECAST NEARING CRITERIA), THIS HEAT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE FAIRLY IMPACTFUL, ESPECIALLY TO INDIVIDUALS
WITHOUT AN EFFECTIVE HYDRATION OR COOLING SOURCE.
BESIDES THE WARM TEMPERATURES, THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALOFT, SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
SLATED TO RETURN AS A NORTHWEST U.S. CENTERED TROUGH PROVOKES
HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, A
SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, PARTIALLY
HALTING THE TROUGHS EASTWARD MOMENTUM. THIS ULTIMATELY SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
A LITTLE MORE NUANCE ENTERS THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A FEW
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS CAN STILL BE MADE. THE MAIN SIGNAL THAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW MERIT IS WITH THE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO MAINLY STAY IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S. BESIDES THE HOT TEMPERATURES, A DRIER PATTERN MAY ALSO LIE
ON THE HORIZON. THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST LIE MONDAY
NIGHT (10-45%) AND TUESDAY (25-45%) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SWEEPS BY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL DETAILS REGARDING
THESE STORM'S TOTAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE STILL TO BE IRONED
OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
(15-16Z). IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT KGRI/KEAR. CEILINGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS, RISING TO IFR THEN MVFR
BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
SKIES CLEAR AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT'S OVERALL
FAVORED BY THE MID AFTERNOON (20Z). ONCE CONDITIONS BECOME VFR,
IT'S EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
15KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET BUT GUSTS STILL REMAIN AROUND 20KTS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY LLWS
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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