010
FXUS63 KGID 141837
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
137 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (70MPH) AND LARGE HAIL (PING PONG
BALL).
- COOLER AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S-80S.
- OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...
A DEVELOPING LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE NE-SD BORDER. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA,
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND ISLAND TO
GENEVA. A COLD FRONT IS SOON TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM THEDFORD-
NORTH PLATTE-MCCOOK. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS LOW (BETWEEN
WARM AND COLD FRONTS) BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HELPING TO
ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM
SECTOR ARE IN THE 80S AND 90S, WARMEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. ELEVATED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
BUT OVERALL REMAIN FAIRLY BRIEF/LIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAPE VALUES OF 2000+J/KG
COMBINED WITH 35KTS OF SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED TO BE DISCRETE
WHICH SUPPORTS A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS WOULD CARRY A POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED TORNADO). WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT, WHERE SURFACE
WINDS MAINTAIN A MORE DUE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. OVER TIME, STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT FORMING INTO A
CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS. AS STORMS FORM INTO A CLUSTER/LINE LATER
THIS EVENING, HAIL/TORNADO THREAT LESSENS, WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN
BECOMING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (GUSTS TO 60-70MPH). STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS EXIT THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, SCATTERED
NON-SEVERE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST, EXITING THE
AREA AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE IS THE MOST PERSISTENT. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS, POPS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO MAINLY SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. POP CHANCES AND
COVERAGE INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LLJ RESULTS IN
SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
LOOK UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY...
THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS KANSAS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS (WARMEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT). DRY WEATHER
IS FAVORED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW-WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THIS FLOW ALOFT, IT WILL BRING CONTINUED
OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES FLATTEN AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON-NIGHT. SCATTERED, OFF AND ON
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME A MIX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE USED A MIX OF TEMPO AND PROB30
GROUPS TO OUTLINE THE ADMITTEDLY LONG TIMEFRAME OF STORMS
POTENTIAL. WHILE MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT/WEAK, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM RESULTING
IN BRIEFLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. RAIN ENDS BY SUNRISE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY SUNRISE-END OF TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20KTS AND GUSTING 25-30KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AROUND SUNSET WITH GUSTS
BELOW 15KTS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE PRIOR
TO SUNRISE BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING AROUND 20-25KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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