282
FXUS63 KGID 290417
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG (AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE) WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING OFF AND ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER (MAINLY 70S) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES PERSISTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ALSO IMPACTED WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 10 AM...WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING
AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A POTENTIAL
REPEAT OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR HINTING THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LIGHT (AND FAVORABLE) SE WINDS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS, THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, SO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT,
SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT HIGH.
FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTED A CLOUDY/FOGGY START TO THE DAY, WITH ONLY
A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON. LATE IN
THE DAY, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REACH
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORCING FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER, SO WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY. THAT SAID, WESTERN FRINGES OF THE AREA ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE, SO INCLUDED THE MENTION FOR A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 TOMORROW.
FURTHER EAST, THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR UNTIL LATE EVENING, LIKELY AFTER 10 PM,
WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR EVEN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH OFF
AN ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A RESULT. THIS WILL NOT BE
A CONTINUOUS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OR WASHOUT TYPE
WEEKEND, RATHER A WEEKEND WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THAN ANYTHING, WITH THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COMING WITH THE THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION, CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER AND VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
(DESPITE THE SMALL POPS TUESDAY PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY PM THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST).
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE WETTEST 24 HOUR PERIOD (SATURDAY 7
AM THROUGH SUNDAY 7 AM) LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MODEST, WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISING ANYWHERE FROM AN QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION AND ENSEMBLES CALLING FOR
APPROXIMATELY A 20-50% CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WIND DETAILS):
THIS IS A SOMEWHAT TRICKY PERIOD WITH REGARD TO CEILING (AND TO
A LESSER/BRIEFER EXTENT VISIBILITY), WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FIRST 12+ HOURS (ESPECIALLY
KEAR), BEFORE AT LEAST LOW-END VFR LIKELY RETURNS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LATTER HALF. AT LEAST LIGHT FOG COULD ALSO PROMOTE MAINLY
MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A A FEW-TO-SEVERAL HOURS (MORE FAVORED
KEAR). TOWARD THE FINAL 6-9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING, SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD COME INTO
PLAY, BUT THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AVERAGING
MAINLY UNDER 10KT FROM A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
KEAR WILL LIKELY START OUT THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILING WHILE
KGRI IS MORE LIKELY TO HANG ONTO LOW-END VFR FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. BY 09-10Z, A POTENTIALLY RAPID DETERIORATION TO MVFR
(FAVORING KGRI) AND IFR (FAVORING KEAR) CEILING IS EXPECTED,
ALONG WITH PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY (IN LIGHT FOG AND PERHAPS
LIGHT DRIZZLE). ASSUMING THIS DETERIORATION DOES INDEED OCCUR,
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN CEILING MIGHT
RETURN TO AT LEAST LOW-END VFR, BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
HAVE MAINTAINED THE 20Z VFR EXPECTATION FROM PREVIOUS/00Z TAFS,
WITH AT LEAST LOW-END VFR CEILING TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS ADMITTEDLY QUITE LOW. THERE COULD BE
AT LEAST SPOTTY ACTIVITY IN THE AREA AS EARLY AS 21-00Z, BUT
OVERALL-BETTER POTENTIAL PROBABLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD (MORE SO AROUND/AFTER 03Z. CONSIDERED INTRODUCING
PROB30 FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT GIVEN THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AND THAT THESE CHANCES ARE STILL BEYOND THE
FIRST 12 HOURS, HAVE KEPT OUT ANY OFFICIAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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