481
FXUS63 KGID 232329
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT IN A SERIES OF PRECIPTIATION CHANCES WORKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...BUT NOT LOOKING
AT A NON- STOP RAINOUT.
- MODELS STILL SHOWING GOOD PROBABILITIES (AT LEAST 50+ PERCENT
OVER A DECENT SIZED CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ENS
DATA REMAINING MORE OPTIMISTIC/WIDESPREAD THAN GFS ENS DATA
FOR PROBABILITIES OF ESPECIALLY 2 INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL
RAINFALL.
- OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENTLY...
HAVE HAD A BIT OF A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, FOLLOWING SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION THAT CROSSED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE LAST NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE OF INCREASED MID-UPPER LIFT IS
BRINGING THE NEXT BATCH OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN FROM THE SSW
HERE AT MID-AFTERNOON. FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN SRN PLAINS/WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION AND NORTHWARD EXTENDING RIDGING THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER
TROUGHING, WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCES OFF THE WEST BAJA COAST
AND THE NRN ROCKIES AND OTHER WEAKER EMBEDDED WAVES. AT THE
SURFACE, NOT LOOKING AT AN OVERLY STRONG PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION, AS WE SIT WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SET UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST, AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH GUSTS AT TIMES AROUND 20-25 MPH. CLOUD
COVER HAS BEEN A BIT OF A NUISANCE...THIS MORNING SKIES WERE
DOMINATED BY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. THIS CLOUD COVER DID
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH FROM SSW TO NNE (THOUGH A LITTLE STILL
LINGERS IN EXTREME NNE AREAS)...SO WHILE WE HAVE HAD SOME SUN,
THIS NEXT WAVE IS BRINGING MORE CLOUDS RIGHT BACK IN...SO THOSE
SWRN AREAS HAVEN'T HAD THE CHANCE TO WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS HAD
HOPED. CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS STILL HAVE A BIT OF TIME TO GET
TEMPS TO/JUST ABOVE THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORTER TERM PERIOD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK CONTINUES WITH LIE WITH INCREASED
PRECIPTIATION CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES
OF RAIN IN SPOTS. OVERALL THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT,
AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (70-90 PERCENT IN SPOTS) THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A NON-STOP RAINOUT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT IN THE
BROADER SCALE...SHOWING MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION, SET UP BETWEEN AN INCREASINGLY DAMPENED AND WESTWARD
SHIFTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AS ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ONTO
THE WEST COAST. MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WORKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARLY
FAVORING THE EVENING HOURS ON INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
THE FOLLOWING DAY. THERE REMAIN PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EXACT TIMING...MODELS SHOWING RELATIVE LULLS IN ACTIVITY, BUT
DIFFER IN EXACTLY WHEN THEY OCCUR AND HOW LONG THEY ACTUALLY
LAST FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FIRES UP/MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW NOT A GREAT CHANCE FOR BETTER
INSTABILITY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA...KEEPING HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARD. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY DATA,
THE EC ENS REMAIN MORE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR AMOUNTS THAN
THE GFS...CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PROBABILITIES OF 80+
PERCENT OF AT LEAST ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUN DID NOTE A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD
SHIFT...AND STILL HAS A DECENT AREA OF PROBABILITIES OF 40-70
PERCENT OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. THE GFS ENSEMBLE DATA KEEPS THE
PROBABILITIES OF 1+ INCH MORE IN THE 40-80 PERCENT RANGE, WITH
PROBABILITY OF 2+ INCHES CONFINED TO A NARROWER SWATH OF ONLY
10-30 PERCENT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS
WITH MINOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT THE FACT THAT THESE TOTALS ARE
SPREAD OUT AND NOT ALL FALLING WITHIN SAY A 6-HR PERIOD HELPS.
THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND DRY...MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS ON SATURDAY, WITH HOW LONG ACTIVITY MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT LINGERS AROUND INTO THE DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT
BETWEEN MODELS...SOME ARE MUCH SLOWER TO PUSH THINGS OUT OF HERE
THAN OTHERS ON SATURDAY.
THE DRY FORECAST EVEN CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...POTENTIALLY THROUGH ALL OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY,
BUT THAT'S DEFINITELY NOT A CERTAINTY, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING PRECIP ALREADY RETURNING AT SOME POINT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF FURTHER INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AS MODELS SHOW THE NEXT NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH. EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IS UNCERTAIN,
AFFECTING THE TIMING...THE ECMWF IS A SLOWER, MORE ORGANIZED
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH, KEEPING PRECIP AROUND ON INTO WED...VS
THE MORE OPEN, PROGRESSIVE GFS WHICH CLEARS THINGS OUT QUICKER.
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, FOLLOWING 60S-70S FORECAST FOR THU-
FRI (WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC DEPENDING ON PRECIP
TRENDS)...70S-LOW 80S RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND-MONDAY, WITH MORE
60S RETURNING TUE-WED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR-IFR CIGS & VIS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ONWARDS. A CLUSTER
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KEAR/KGRI AROUND
1-2Z (FIRST AT KEAR). THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY. RAIN INITIALLY SHOULD
START AS VFR, BUT OVER TIME AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD,
LOW STRATUS MOVES INTO THE AREA. INITIAL LOW STRATUS FAVORS
MVFR, BUT QUICKLY LOWERS TO IFR BY THE MID-LATE MORNING. THE IFR
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WITHIN THE STEADY/PREVAILING RAIN, VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR, WITH BRIEFLY IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. HAVE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO INDICATE
THIS POTENTIAL AND HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS
TO OCCUR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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