456  
FXUS63 KGID 071725  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
A FEW STORMS IN THE LATE EVENING CLIPPED OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, THEN  
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NEB DECAYED AS IT EDGED  
TOWARD GOTHENBURG/ORD, THEN STORMS ACROSS SD HAVE HELD TOGETHER  
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEB DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...ALSO  
ON THE PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK.  
 
FOR TODAY WE ARE LOOKING AT TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH DRY/WARM  
WEATHER WITH UPPER RIDGING MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  
MID LEVEL TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO AND MIXING  
WILL BE DEEPER TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTH WIND  
SPEEDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH...AND TEMPS WILL EDGE A COUPLE  
DEGREES WARMER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 90-95F.  
 
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW/UPPER  
TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS ALBERTA/NORTHERN ROCKIES. CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE TO OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE  
SURFACE TROUGH, AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE  
REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY WITH BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM/HOT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/70F IT'LL FEEL EVEN HOTTER WITH HEAT  
INDICES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK.  
 
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS  
STILL SHAPING UP TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RECEIVING RAINFALL WITH  
DECENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL THRU  
WESTERN NEB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AND ORGANIZE AND MOVE  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH MAIN  
TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN 7 PM AND 2 AM. CONDITIONS WILL BE  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH AND  
LARGE HAIL OF QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER POSSIBLE IN UNSTABLE  
CONDITIONS WITH CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 30KTS.  
CANNOT RULE OUT A TOR POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE EVENT...AND AS  
CONVECTION EVOLVES, LOOKING FOR TRANSITION TO A PRIMARY WIND  
EVENT WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH STORMS FILLING IN ALONG  
THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. LATEST SPC DAY 2  
OUTLOOK HAS UPGRADED OUR SEVERE RISK TO SLIGHT FOR THIS TIME  
FRAME. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT OUR QPF/RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE  
INCREASED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE AN INCH  
POSSIBLE IN STORMS...NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND HALF. WPC HAS  
OUTLINED PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IT'LL TAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS TO  
CAUSE FLOODING GIVEN OUR PROLONGED DRY WEATHER...BUT SOMETHING TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON.  
 
STORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND OUR REGION IS  
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK. MODELS VARY IN  
SOLUTIONS WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE AND WILL NEED TO WAIT AND  
SEE HOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION UNFOLDS AND WHERE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARIES RESIDE BEFORE GETTING INTO DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...WITH  
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ATTM. THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPS TREND DOWN A  
FEW DEGREES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...MORE SEASONAL IN THE  
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.  
 
HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY AND AN UPPER  
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IN  
THIS PATTERN, TEMPS WILL CLIMB AGAIN WITH SEVERAL DAYS IN THE 90S  
EXPECTED. WHILE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT  
TIMES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING AROUND THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES  
ARE LOOKING FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
 
OVERALL A QUIET FORECAST. ONLY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS  
AROUND DAWN TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LLWS  
RATHER BORDERLINE AND MARGINAL, BUT I DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT GIVEN  
THE HISTORY OF MODELS UNDER DOING WINDS FOR OUR AREA.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FAY  
LONG TERM...FAY  
AVIATION...SHAWKEY  
 
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