417
FXUS63 KGID 042338
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL 8
PM SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%)
OF SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.
- A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN (HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S) FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE UNDER THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 90S TO AROUND 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 109 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD/NEAR THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING EXPECTED HIGHS. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. NEAR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. THE RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN THE MID 70S
WHILE THE EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 70S. SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT AROUND A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WILL
MOSTLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED, AT THIS TIME, TO BE
BELOW 105 DEGREES BUT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 103
DEGREES ACROSS (MAINLY SOUTHERN) PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASED (UP TO 55%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
MORE IMPACT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. LOW
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (15% TO 25%) CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP / THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THIS IN
TURN MAY IMPACT CEILING HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS (WITH LESSER
LIKELIHOOD) VISIBILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 -
10 KTS, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS FOR KEAR. FOR
TONIGHT, A FEW MODELS SUGGEST WINDS OF 30 - 35 KTS AT MAXIMUM IN
THE 800 - 2,000 FT LEVEL, BUT THIS WOULD EQUATE TO ONLY ~25-30
KTS OF SHEAR THROUGH THE LAYER, THUS FALLING JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAF. THE BEST CHANCES TO BRIEFLY
HIT THE THRESHOLD 30 KTS OF LLWS WOULD BE AT KEAR BETWEEN 03Z -
08Z (10:00 PM TONIGHT - 3:00 AM SAT). AS FOR PRECIP AND
CEILINGS, PERSISTENT 10 - 20% CHANCES ESSENTIALLY LAST IN HIT-
AND-MISS FASHION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERED A PROB30
GROUP FOR KEAR IN PARTICULAR AT 22Z (5:00 PM CDT) TOMORROW (SAT)
EVENING, BUT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS JUST TOO HIGH TO PLACE ANY
PRECIP IN THE TAFS IN ANY ONE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ANY NECESSARY AMENDMENTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ049-063-064-
074>077-083>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...BEGAN
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