627
FXUS63 KGID 270757
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HOLDREGE TO BELOIT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY COULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND IN THE 8PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED T-STORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
- HEAT RETURNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, NEAR-TERM CAMS ARE NOT HANDLING
THIS VERY WELL (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO).
NEVERTHELESS, I WOULD EXPECT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM SW NEB DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL KS. THIS IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE AND IS FAVORED TO DEPART BY
9-10AM, AT THE LATEST.
AFTER A MOSTLY DRY DAYTIME, THE 00Z HRRR (AND A COUPLE OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE) WERE VERY AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OUT OF THE SANDHILLS
THIS EVENING (ROUGHLY 8PM TO MIDNIGHT). AS SUCH, THE SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A "SLIGHT" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
(HAIL AND WIND) IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THAT SAID, THIS IS A
RATHER "CONDITIONAL" THREAT AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FORECAST IS RATHER LOW. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY THE 06Z HRRR RUN
WHICH NOW SHOWS ESSENTIALLY ZERO CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA THIS
EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE NOT "GUARANTEED" DRY, BUT THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE FAVORABLE TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH 100-105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND EXTENDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO MONTANA.
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES. A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTH AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES (AROUND 30% TO 40%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. ALTHOUGH,
AREAS AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 281 WILL HAVE A 15% TO 25% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER (AROUND A 20% CHANCE). HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS (15% TO AROUND 35% CHANCE) ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
(SIMILAR AREAS AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT) LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
IMPACT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THE WARMEST 2
DAYS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES
COOL SLIGHTLY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE COUNTRY. VARIOUS UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING MORE RAIN
AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE PREVIOUS PROB30 MENTION AT KEAR FOR LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THU AM...AS MOST MODELS HAVE LITTLE/NOTHING
DEVELOPING, AND WHAT DOES SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL...SO THIS TAF FORECAST FOR BOTH SITES
IS DRY. KEPT THE FORECAST VFR...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU, AS SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG. HAVE A
6SM MENTION GOING FOR NOW. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THEN BACK TO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...ADP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page