626
FXUS63 KGID 271633
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS
REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT (20-50% CHANCES, GREATEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST).
- THE REST OF THE COVERAGE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SORT OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THURSDAY (20-60% CHANCES, GREATEST TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST). NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FLICKER IN AND OUT ACROSS
THE WEEKEND TO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH HIGHER
THAN USUAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY KEEPS DETAILS SOMEWHAT LIMITED
FOR NOW (SUBJECT TO CHANGE).
- HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BLOWING BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AND
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL
BECOME A FAMILIAR OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SIMILAR
RETURNING CONDITIONS (HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS)
WILL COME AS A WESTERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TEMPORARILY SLOWS
DOWN THE FORWARD TRANSLATION OF A NEGATIVE TILTED INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LOCK THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH QUITE POSSIBLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING UP FROM THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN KANSAS REGION TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIMMER NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LATER BE SLUNG UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE FIRST STORMS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR A FEW ISOLATED NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA LOCATIONS (20-50% CHANCES, GREATEST TO THE SOUTHWEST). ANY
ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND ISOLATED IN COVERAGE.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE THE AREA THURSDAY
BRINGING THE FULL AREA UP TO A 20-60% PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CONCENTRATED TOWARDS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LOCATIONS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPOTTY TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIKELY
OFF-AND-ON PERIODS OF WET AND DRY CONDITIONS (POTENTIALLY MORE DRY
THAN WET PERIODS). ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE GIVEN LITTLE AVAILABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
(<1,000J/KG OF MUCAPE).
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMNEST HIGH-RES MODELS CAPTURE A OVERNIGHT LULL
IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE LATEST 12Z HRRR RUN IS
QUICKER TO CLEAR OUT THE PRECIPITATION (AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME). EITHER
WAY, PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAINLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY RECEIVING LESS THAN
0.25" (<0.1" NORTH OF I-80) OF PRECIPITATION. THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION (UP TO 0.5") SHOULD FALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS
OF WINDS, TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY STAY BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH OR EAST WITH
STEADY AFTERNOON WINDS RANGING MAINLY BETWEEN 10-15MPH AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30MPH (GUSTIEST WINDS TO COME
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON).
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BREAK OUT OF ITS CURRENT STALLED/BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON QUESTION AS FOR NOW. AT
LEAST A WEAK POP (20-30%+) RETURNS DAILY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON POP-UP SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ACROSS THE LONG TERM-FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST POTENTIAL OVERALL
CURRENTLY LIES FRIDAY NIGHT (25-60% CHANCES), SATURDAY (40-70%) AND
SUNDAY (40-50%).
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS (GEFS/ENS/GEPS)
AROUND THE DAY-6 (MONDAY) PERIOD BEGINS TO SHOW TWO DIVERGING
SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS THAT COULD IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE LEADING SOLUTION (WEIGHTING
MORE TOWARDS THE GEFS MEMBERS) SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGING
PATTERN (LONGER LASTING BLOCKING FLOW). THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE TEMPERATE (LESS EXTREME) TEMPERATURE
SWINGS NEXT WEEK. THE ALTERNATE (SECOND LEADING) SOLUTION (WIGHTED
MORE TOWARDS THE ENS MEMBERS), SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN AND THUS A QUICKER TO UNBLOCK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE PRECIPITATION WITH MORE NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VRF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>80% CONFIDENCE) TO RETAIN ACROSS THE 18Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS EVENING SHOULD MAINTAIN
BASES GREATER THAN 10,000FT THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NEXT AT LEAST 24 HOURS
WITH SPEEDS MAXING OUT AROUND 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20KTS. VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (<10KTS AFTER 2Z). THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL THURSDAY MORNING, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL SITE BEFORE 12Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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