434
FXUS63 KGID 181205
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HANDFUL OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 3-8PM TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MAINLY BE FOR
PLACES NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-81.
- A FEW SHOWERS, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING TO AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
- HIGHS, FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY, WILL PEAK
IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LOCATIONS AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AREAS COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(40-50% CHANCE).
- HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL STAY IN THE 60S FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FRIDAY AND
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
TODAY...
SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PAST TWO DAYS
(PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA LOCATIONS EAST OF HWY-
81). A PERSISTING TROUGH THAT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL ONCE MORE STEER A
SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVERTOP OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING RESIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME THE DAY'S PRIMARY STORM FORCING
MECHANISM. THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
DAMPEN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF OUR NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR CENTRAL/TRI-CITIES AREA (THOUGH SHOWERS
AND WEAK STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE). HIGHS IN RESPONSE TO THE
GUSTY COOL AIR ADVECTING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO STRUGGLE
TO BREAK OUT OF THE 50S TO LOW 60S BEYOND A FEW NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS THE STORMS GO THIS AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 3-8PM), ALL
CONVECTIVE TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS IN THE MIX (LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES). A WARM, MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL OFFER PLENTY OF ENERGY
TO ALLOW STORMS TO ERUPT AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE (UP TO 1,500-
4,000J/KG OF MUCAPE). SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
UNDERNEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS TO SPIN, THOUGH THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD PREVENT
STORMS FROM STAYING ISOLATED FOR TOO LONG (SQUALL/MCS WILL BE
FAVORED). WITH HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED TODAY, ITS IS
UNLIKELY FOR THE SEVERE STORMS TO IMPACT MUCH OF OUR LOCAL AREA
(MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-81 AND FOR A FEW NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LOCATIONS). ONLY A SOUTHEAST SLIVER OF THE AREA (AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM YORK, NE TO OSBORNE, KS) HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OR ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
THOUGH THE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY STAY CONCENTRATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE AREA, WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN
AND SOME NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PART OF
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. UP TO 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE OVER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THE
FORMATION OF FROST MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
LOOK TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THESE CALMING WINDS WILL BE A RESULT FROM
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SWOOPING IN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (40-50% CHANCE) AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY
COMES PIVOTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE
CONVECTION TODAY AND ON MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST, AND A DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON, THE MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY IN THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
IF ANYTHING, CAMS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH STORM
INITIATION...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 4PM...BUT BECOMING MORE LIKELY
BY AROUND 5PM IN THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, POTENTIALLY MERGING INTO
MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE IS HIGHEST IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
HASTINGS MAY NOT
GENERALLY THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 HAS SOME
THREAT FOR TORNADO TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
MAXIMIZED. SIG-TOR PARAMETER (STP) VALUES OF 5-7+ ARE FORECAST
BY THE RAP/MESOANALYSIS, WHICH IS A QUITE SUBSTANTIAL INDICATOR
OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.
A STORM OR TWO MAY APPROACH WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
8-10PM TIMEFRAME. MOST OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES SHOULD BE
STORM-FREE BY 8-9PM, BUT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER-DURATION EVENT, WITH STORMS CONTINUING
TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF I-70. IF THIS OCCURS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE (MAINLY MITCHELL/OSBORNE COUNTIES),
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND EXACTLY ON WHERE STORMS SETUP.
MONDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL, WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. LESS OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BE IMPACTED THAN TODAY AND SATURDAY, BUT NEVERTHELESS, PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN KS, ALONG WITH THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS IN THE 3-8PM TIMEFRAME.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM TODAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A QUICK BURST OF DRY
AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER TODAY, THE OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK.
NOT MUCH TIME WAS SPENT ON THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN GRADUALLY WARM BACK
UP INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. RAIN/T-STORM CHANCES ALSO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A LOW DECK OF STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FULL DAY
AND NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL SOON DROP INTO IFR
CEILINGS (BY 13-15Z). IFR CEILING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL 22-4Z, FIRST LIFTING FROM KEAR OVER KGRI.
A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS BETWEEN 14 AND 20Z. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY BETWEEN 22-2Z.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY (340-030 DEGREES) WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINING NEAR
15-20KTS AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...STUMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page