758
FXUS63 KGID 151116
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGELY DRIVE MON-FRI WORK WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL (TAD COOLER, TAD
WARMER, TAD COOLER) WITH A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS THANKS TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS (THOUGH LIKELY A BIT HIGHER LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY)
- HONESTLY, THE NEXT SHOT FOR DECENT SHOWERS/STORMS COMES NEXT
WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MORE LIKELY SATUDRAY
NIGHT, AND IT MAY INCLUDE THE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE EARLY MORNING WEATHER MAP DEPICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR SCOTTSBLUFF NEBRASKA AND RIDGING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. SKIES WERE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME
MID CLOUDS STILL STREAMING IN FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SPREADING WEAK SUBSIDENCE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL AGAIN THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.
AS THE KEY MESSAGES MENTION, THE MONDAY-FRIDAY WORK IS "MOSTLY"
DRY. THE EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE,
WITH A BIT MORE "UMPH" AND A WEAK FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ)
FORMS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH SOME LOW END MUCAPE AND
CAMS MODELS SUGGESTING AT LEAST NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AFTER 10 PM. THE FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WITH A 15-25% TYPE RAIN CHANCE. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL, SUCH AS TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS, AND VERY SPARSE
OVERALL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY, AND TUESDAY WILL BE A
PARTICULARLY NICE DAY. THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT FRONT WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY EVENING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SET TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE FRONT IS
STRONGER AND IT WILL PULL MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL ACT AS A CAP,
AND FORCE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR A MUCH
WARMER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE 60S) AND A QUICK WARMUP
WEDNESDAY AS FAIRLY STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MIX THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH (STILL
ABOVE 90 MANY AREAS) WITH THE IDEA THAT THERE IS DECENT COLD
ADVECTION AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY WELL GO LOWER
BY A FEW DEGREES WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. WINDS ARE PROBABLY
UNDERDONE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVING THE STRONG DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND EVEN "OLD-TIMER" NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING 30-35 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY.
AFTER THE MIDWEEK COLD FRONT PASSES, TEMPERATURES DIP BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE, COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS AND A NORTH BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT BECOMES A
TRANSITION DAY AS SOUTHERNLY WINDS RETURN, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES AND AND TEMPERATURES SNEAK UP INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS LLJ WILL FORM AND START
TO PUSH MORE UNSTABLE AIR NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SOME OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS THANKS TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT, CENTERED MOSTLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
NIGHT, KEEPING IN MIND THIS HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR
AT LAST A FEW DAYS. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS, ANOTHER FRONT WOULD
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FATHERS DAY CONTINUING THE RAIN CHANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD OR "MEANINGFUL" RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW A 60-90% CHANCE FOR LESS
THAN 0.10" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SPRINKLES WILL BE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
WEAK T-STORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK (90S TO LOW 100S
ON WED). THAT SAID, HUMIDITY REMAINS QUITE LOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN/T-STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR EAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FOR THURSDAY, BUT NEAR TO ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE REASONABLY HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN/T-STORMS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND (JUNE 20-21ST) AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. OF COURSE,
DETAILS REMAIN PRETTY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE, THIS COULD
FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THE 00Z CSU-MLP SEVERE
PROBS HAVE A 5% CONTOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STILL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TODAY MAY GUST TO
18-20KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BUT EVENTUALLY DROP OFF
BY EVENING AND BACK TO THE SOUTH A BIT AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT FRONT WILL PASS ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
EXPECT ONLY PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVELS PASSING BY,
PROBABLY A BIT THICKER TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE
FORECAST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page