394
FXUS63 KGID 061738
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- GOOD CHANCES (50 TO 70%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- A DRIER AND HOTTER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND LASTS
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
OVERALL CHANGES ARE MINIMAL FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
TODAY AND TUESDAY FEATURE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S FOR
MOST AREAS AS SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
AFTERNOON GUSTS RANGE FROM 15-30 MPH (HIGHEST WEST). CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SNEAK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR THIS PERIOD AS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY, BUT WOULD FAVOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MORE THAN THE EAST. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONVECTIVE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
OVERALL, FRIDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND THIS
DRY TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S AND 100S) AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK-WEEK IS SEASONAL AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK-WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
IT DOWN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK.
THE RETURN TO MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (40-60% CHANCE) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WITH A 25-50% CHANCE FOR CENTRAL,
SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO 20% FOR THE
AREA AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID JULY.
MOVING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT WEEKEND, AND
BEYOND. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE. THIS IS
DUE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOVE CLOSE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK, ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK-WEEK.
DETAILS WILL CHANGE, BUT CURRENT GRAND ENSEMBLE VALUES SHOW 20%
CHANCE OF THE MAX TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY
THE 13TH, AND 40% CHANCE OF THE MAX TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES ON THE 14TH. THIS PERIOD IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
EXTREME HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
QUIET FORECAST PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SSE WINDS
AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE AT KEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...SCOTT
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