052
FXUS63 KGID 051731
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED (50-70%) IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4-11AM, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE (40-70%) WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER TODAY, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100
CAN'T BE RULED OUT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (MAINLY CLAY/HAMILTON COUNTIES AND EAST)
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THESE SCATTERED
STORMS, NAMELY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET, THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE, AS CAPE AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE MORE LIMITED
THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO. NONETHELESS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN 1 INCH) AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH.
ANOTHER STORM CLUSTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING (MAINLY BETWEEN 4-11AM), AS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINE UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80, WITH PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 50-70%. HOWEVER,
SOME SPURIOUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-40%) OUTSIDE THIS
CORRIDOR. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE
OF SEEING GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS NEXT
TO ZERO CAPE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
BESIDES THE CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RELATIVELY
CALM EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. PROLONGED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT, AS WEAK SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATES THE AREA. CURRENT HREF/REFS GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN A 40-
70% CHANCE OF SEEING VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 1 MILE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF THIS FOG IS UNCERTAIN.
AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD.
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP OVER 100 ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION OF THIS HEAT, AS OVERALL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN INCREASES POST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING
ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE CONUS, UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING IN THE GA/SC AREA, WHILE THE MAIN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW IS BEING DAMPENED
BY LOW PRESSURE/BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN OVERALL FLOW...ONE
OF WHICH IS HELPING DRIVE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE FORECAST SITS JUST NORTH OF
THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS STALLED SOME, CURRENTLY SITTING
FROM SW/SOUTH CENTRAL KS UP INTO ESERN IA. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY (ESP. BY AUGUST STANDARDS) OUT
OF THE NNE...GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN AROUND 25-30 MPH. BETWEEN
THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND SITTING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOT SURPRISING THAT
IN SPOTS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING SO FAR TODAY. BY THE
TIME IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE...FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL TURN OUT ALRIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NE MAY NOT END UP EVEN HITTING 70 DEGREES. STILL SOME
TIME TO RECOVER BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY ANYWHERE THERE ARE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. THERE HAVE BEEN SPOTS AT TIMES THAT HAVE PERKED UP
IN STRENGTH...BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A
NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS. INSTABILITY IS SITTING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN AREAS, CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG IN THE SE...BUT BOTH
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY LOW. TIMING OF THE MAIN
SWATH HAS IT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LINGERING
ACTIVITY, MODELS SHOWING A RELATIVE LULL...WITH BETTER LIFT
ALONG AN INCREASING LLJ LOOKING TO FOCUS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS...USHERING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER-RES MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...THE BETTER
CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO/AFTER 09Z. LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE INITIALLY, SO POPS REMAIN
BROAD WITH CHANCES IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES
RUN ROUGHLY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, POSSIBLY DRY AREA-WIDE
BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA, ROUGHLY FROM I-80 TO NEAR THE STATE
LINE...THOUGH AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE OUTSIDE THAT
CORRIDOR TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE...WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK REMAINING
WELL OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARIES.
AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WON'T BE AS GUSTY AS THEY HAVE BEEN
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS TURN
MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME, SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH. THE
DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAKE FOR
A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT CLEAR OUT BY MID-
AFTERNOON AND WE CAN GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST
HIGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE IN THE LOWER
70S, WITH MID-70S TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND ON...
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK ON INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...OVERALL THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. BIG PICTURE-WISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME FLEXING TO VARYING
DEGREES OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE DESERT SW...AT
TIMES ABLE TO AMPLIFY A BIT MORE EARLY-ON THANKS TO DEEPER
TROUGHING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT THEN IS
DAMPENED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING ONTO WESTERN CANADA/FAR
NNWRN CONUS. SPOTTY, GENERALLY LOW-END PRECIPTIATION CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACKING OF ANY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70S OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW-MID 80S ON THURSDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S-
NEAR 100 FOR THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT-MON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT E/ESE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL GO LGT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, WHICH WILL
LIKELY, EVENTUALLY, SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT OR TOWARDS DAWN THU AM. THIS FOG COULD BE DENSE GIVEN
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RECENT LIGHT RAIN, BUT HAVE KEPT THE
TEMPO GROUP TO 3/4SM TO 1SM (IFR CONDITIONS), FOR NOW. ANY
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-AM, LEAVING DECREASING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCOTT
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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