419  
FXUS63 KGID 262207  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
407 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER  
DAY ON SUNDAY.  
 
* THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY A  
LITTLE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY.  
 
* TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BEHIND THE TUESDAY FRONT AND REMAIN  
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
THE WIND HAS BEEN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST JUST  
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, IT  
HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THAT WILL ALL CHANGE AS A  
COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH THIS EVENING. AT 3 PM, THE WIND HAD  
ALREADY TURNED NORTHERLY AT ORD AND WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. THE  
WIND WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME RATHER  
GUSTY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. WE'LL KEEP  
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS OUR  
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING  
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
SUNDAY...  
SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY THANKS TO THE  
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS EVENINGS COLD FRONT. THANKFULLY THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES RATHER QUICKLY AND THUS THE EXPECTED  
GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE AND LIGHTEN UP AS WE  
GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  
 
MONDAY...  
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GIVE US ONE  
MORE PRETTY DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S JUST AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  
 
TUESDAY...  
THIS IS THE MAIN DAY TO WATCH. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE A LARGE QUICK MOVING, BUT OPEN WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR  
SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE  
DAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PRODUCING SOME POST  
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG OF  
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THE DEEPER  
AND MORE SATURATED COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS  
PROBABLY BEST INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS NARROW MIXED ZONE  
OF PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT'S  
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET MUCH INTO AMOUNTS, BUT BASED ON THE  
ENSEMBLES THERE IS A BETTER THAN 50/50 SHOT AT GETTING AROUND OR A  
LITTLE OVER 1 INCH OF SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 92.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE COLD DAY BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WITH  
MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING HIGHS BELOW FREEZING.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
OVERALL MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE IN THIS OUTER  
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING ZONAL PATTERN. AS OF  
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS GENERALLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE  
MAIN THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
THIS EVENING NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON  
AND THEN BECOME VERY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING  
BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE VERY  
EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS  
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WESELY  
AVIATION...WESELY  
 
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