030
FXUS63 KGID 230553
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1153 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR KANSAS
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY (THIS PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 3-6"
OF SNOW). THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- NO FORMAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
OUR NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA, BUT MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO PICK
UP 1-4" OF SNOW FRIDAY-SATURDAY (GENERALLY LOWEST
NORTH/HIGHEST SOUTH), AND AT LEAST SOME COUNTIES COULD BE
"ADVISORY CANDIDATES" IN LATER UPDATES.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO
-25 WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT-MORNING
HOURS.
- NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT WARMER...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
OVERALL, THERE AREN'T SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST,
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS SUPPORTS THE
ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT, COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE AREA AND STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO THE -15 TO -25
DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL UNTIL
WE SEE MORE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. SNOW IS VERY LIKELY (80-100%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN
6PM FRIDAY THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THIS TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAY
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL INFLATE THE TOTALS IN THAT AREA. TOTAL QPF
HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY, AND SNOW RATIOS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE 15-20:1 THANKS TO A DEEP, SATURATED DGZ. AS A
RESULT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RANGES FROM 3-6" OVER OUR KS
ZONES, AND BETWEEN 1-4" OVER NEBRASKA.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH/EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA (5") IN SOME SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OF HIGHWAY 24 IN
KANSAS. THAT SAID, THIS SNOWFALL IS OCCURRING OVER A RELATIVELY
LONG DURATION (PRIMARILY WEEKEND) AND WILL BE A LIGHT/FLUFFY
SNOW. THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL IMPACTS
SOMEWHAT.
SNOW GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND "WARMER"
(HIGHS IN THE TEENS), BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS COULD
ACTUALLY END UP AS THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FORTUNATELY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS COULD STILL DIP
BELOW -20 DEGREES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL, THE WARMUP HAS BEEN A BIT DELAYED/MUTED FOR NEXT
WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND
30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND SNOW-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THESE FIRST 4 HOURS (WITH ONLY
GRADUALLY THICKENING/LOWERING VFR CLOUD LAYERS), BUT ESPECIALLY
BEYOND SUNRISE FRIDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A TRICKY-TO-PIN-DOWN MIX OF LOW-VFR/MVFR CEILING, ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SNOW. WINDS
WILL NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE, BUT MOST OF THESE FIRST 12 HOURS WILL
BE MODESTLY-BREEZY WITH GUSTS COMMONLY 20-25KT OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/SNOW DETAILS:
WE ARE DOWN TO ONLY ABOUT FOUR HOURS OF TRULY HIGH-CONFIDENCE
VFR/PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ALREADY BY 10-12Z,
SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A NARROW BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW WITH AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY COULD
BREAK OUT OVER THE GENERAL AREA OF BOTH KGRI/KEAR. AS A RESULT,
HAVE MOVED UP THE START OF THE PREVIOUS PROB30 GROUP TO 10Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HONESTLY, BEYOND ESPECIALLY AROUND 14Z
CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT" CEILING/VISIBILITY AND RELATED SNOW
INTENSITY IS ONLY MEDIUM-AT-BEST. OVERALL THOUGH, EXPECT SNOW TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY-LIKELY/PERSISTENT WITH TIME (ESPECIALLY BY
LATER IN THE PERIOD FRIDAY EVENING), AND HAVE GONE WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SNOW BY THEN WITH A MIX OF MVFR CEILING AND
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY. CUMULATIVE ACCUMULATION OF ANY SNOW AT
KGRI/KEAR DURING THIS VALID PERIOD IS CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE 1-2" (AND BE LIGHT/FLUFFY IN CONSISTENCY).
- WIND DETAILS:
DIRECTION WILL BE RATHER CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
GENERALLY TRANSITIONING FROM MORE NORTHERLY TO MORE EASTERLY
(MAINLY RANGING 020-060 DEGREES). THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL FEATURE THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS...COMMONLY
SUSTAINED 15-20KT/GUSTS 20-25KT. THEREAFTER, SPEEDS WILL
STEADILY DECLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING , SETTLING DOWN TO
ONLY AROUND 10KT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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