035
FXUS63 KGID 241136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL AND SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
- WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY
MARGINAL, A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AFTER A FEW HOT, DRY AND BREEZY DAYS, A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IMPACTED
MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THEY WEAKENED AFTER MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT, WEAKENING AS THEY
REACH OUR WESTERN FRINGES, BRINGING MAINLY CLOUDS AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
LATER TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OVERTAKE THE LOCAL
AREA, ALBEIT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (AS INDICATED IN
SOME OF THE CAMS) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THAT SAID, THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL COME DURING THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITING, THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO
JUSTIFY AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SO CONTINUED WITH THIS
MENTION IN THE MORNING HWO.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT - RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING, WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING BREEZES
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, INSTABILITY WAS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEPT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT BAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S. THIS CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS TO POP UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO FEATURE THE SAME GENERAL MID TO UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN WHICH AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SW AND W
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ZONAL TO NW FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEST AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL THEN ROLL E/SE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND ALONG A STOUT INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
APPEARS THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY W/SW/S
OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR
SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY LIMITED. APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE WITH A
DISTURBANCE WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. IT'S LATE JUNE AND THERE'S AT
LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SO THE VARIOUS
MARGINAL RISKS ON THE SPC OUTLOOKS MAKE SENSE...BUT AGAIN, NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD FOR OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK, AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING
SLIDES EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SO AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS BY
FRIDAY AND ESP. OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, LATEST NBM GIVES
WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO MID 90S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - WHICH
WILL FEEL QUITE STEAMY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RAPIDLY GROWING CORN WILL PROBABLY
SUPPORT EVEN HIGHER VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS E OF
HWY 281 TOWARDS THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. NOT SURE THIS UPTICK IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL NECESSARILY RISE TO ADVISORY LEVELS (HEAT
INDICES OF 105+), AND THERE WILL BE SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
HELP BRING SOME RELIEF...BUT IT'S A SUMMER WEEKEND, SO KEEP IN
MIND FOR THOSE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE UPPER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
(LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION) TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY FORCE AT
LEAST A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY...WHICH COULD THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS. THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME OVERLAP IN SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND LARGE
RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NOW, DOES THIS OVERLAP OCCUR
LOCALLY OR PERHAPS FURTHER N...AND WHAT EXACTLY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTS...THESE DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND ARE CRITICAL TO PINNING DOWN
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS THIS TIME OF YEAR. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 2-3 DAY WINDOW OF INCREASED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT REMAINS QUITE BROAD IN IT'S
FOOTPRINT, AND MUTED ON ANY HIGHER END PROBABILITIES. AGAIN,
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE BUSY SUMMER WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSRAS BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT BR AT EITHER
TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY
TEMPORARY, AND GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
OVERHEAD, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF BR DESPITE 11Z OB
AT KGRI INDICATING SOME MVFR VSBYS. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KTS THIS MORNING...BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AFT 24/15Z. AFT
24/22Z...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRAS/TSRAS AND HAVE A
PROB30 GROUP AND AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ROSSI
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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