528
FXUS63 KGID 052330
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: THE FORECAST REMAINS "GUARANTEED" DRY,
WITH THE MAIN/FAIRLY MINOR ISSUES BEING: 1) COULD THERE BE A
TOUCH OF LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG?...2) ARE WE AIMING HIGH
ENOUGH ON HIGH TEMPS? (WIDESPREAD 80S ESPECIALLY TUESDAY).
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: WHILE OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS MAINLY DRY, THERE ARE SOME LIMITED "QUESTION MARKS" AS
A FEW MODELS HINT AT SPOTTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME
WEAK LIFT/MODEST INSTABILITY PASSES THROUGH.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY: ALMOST GUARANTEED DRY WEATHER RETURNS
AS BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GIVE TEMPS ANOTHER BOOST. OUR
GOING/OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LIKELY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES TOO COOL
FOR HIGHS, AS WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A LOT MORE 80S THAN 70S (THIS
IS JUST A BIT TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR "DEFAULT" MODEL BLEND/NBM).
- SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: LOW CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AS A LARGE-SCALE
WESTERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, THE TYPICALLY-MORE-ACCURATE AND SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME SUGGEST THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
RAIN COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM
DOES SLOW, OUR HIGHS FOR MONDAY MIGHT ALSO BE FAR TOO COOL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES:
- AS ALREADY TOUCHED ON/ALLUDED TO IN THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE,
OUR THREE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUES/UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE 7-DAY
FORECAST AS A WHOLE ARE:
1) COULD SOME SPOTTY/SNEAKY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY "RUIN"
WHAT HAD BEEN/HAS BEEN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BETWEEN LATE WED
NIGHT-THURS NIGHT? AS OF NOW, WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA), BUT THIS BEARS
WATCHING JUST IN CASE THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE AT LEAST SPOTTY ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW THE NAM IS THE
MAIN PRIMARY MODEL SUGGESTING THESE CHANCES, WHILE THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY GFS/RRFS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE.
2) HOW FAR MIGHT WE BE UNDERDOING (AIMING TOO COOL) ON HIGH
TEMPS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY-SUNDAY? AS WE'VE CLEARLY SEEN OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS, OUR "DEFAULT" MULTI-MODEL BLEND (NBM) HAS REALLY
BEEN STRUGGLING TO GO WARM ENOUGH IN THIS RECENT SUNNIER/DRIER
AIR WEATHER PATTERN, AND MORE "RAW" DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA AND
"OLD SCHOOL" NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE POSSIBLY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES TOO COOL
FOR FRI-SUN, AS WE SEEM PRIMED TO SEE MORE 80S VS. 70S
(ESPECIALLY FRI-SAT). WHILE WE PROACTIVELY ADJUST NBM TEMPS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORTER TERM (FIRST FEW DAYS), THESE PERIODS
ARE STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR US TO HAVE MUCH CONTROL
OVER MAKING ADJUSTMENTS, SO FOR NOW THIS FORECASTER CONSIDERS
IT A LIKELY FORECAST WEAKNESS.
3) ALTHOUGH STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME (6-8 DAYS) TO EVEN BEGIN
THINKING ABOUT PROVIDING "FINER DETAILS", EVENTUALLY WE COULD
SEE A RETURN OF MORE LEGITIMATE RAIN CHANCES AS A LARGE-SCALE
WESTERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. AS HAS BEEN SEEN COUNTLESS TIMES IN THE "MODEL
WORLD" OVER THE YEARS, THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF RAIN/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (PERHAPS AS SOON
AS SUN NIGHT-MONDAY), WHILE THE SLOWER (AND OFTEN MORE ACCURATE)
ECMWF SOLUTION HOLDS OFF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UNTIL MORE SO
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICAL, OUR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A "MIDDLE GROUND" WITH RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING ALREADY SUN
NIGHT-MONDAY, BUT ONLY "IFFY" 20-30% CHANCES.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH MON. OCT. 12, BUT
HEAVILY FOCUSED ON THESE FIRST 3-4 DAYS):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 2 PM:
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS COMMONLY 12-22 MPH/GUSTS 16-32 MPH (LIGHTEST IN OUR
EAST/STRONGEST IN OUR CENTRAL/WEST), IT'S ANOTHER VIRTUALLY
CLOUDLESS/SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TRACK TO TOP OUT 77-79
MOST PLACES, WITH A MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN SPOTS PROBABLY TAGGING
80 BRIEFLY.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/SHORT-TERM MODEL
DATA CONFIRM THAT OUR CENTRAL PLAINS REGION RESIDES UNDER BROAD
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...DIRECTED BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, OUR BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES (AND THAT WAS
OVER US 24 HOURS AGO), AND A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
AS BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS, SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AND THE FORECAST REMAINS GUARANTEED DRY. AT THE SURFACE,
BREEZES SLACKEN FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S SPEEDS, BUT REMAIN
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 5-15 MPH
(OVERALL-LIGHEST IN OUR FAR WEST TOWARD SUNRISE IN OUR FAR WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS/MORE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
ARRIVES). LITERALLY THE ONLY POSSIBLE "FORECAST ISSUE" IS FOR A
NARROW AXIS OF LEAST LIGHT/PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS PRIMARILY WITHIN DAWSON COUNTY IN OUR FAR
WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, RIGHT NOW
THIS APPEARS TO BE A VERY LIMITED CONCERN FOR US (BOTH
LIKELIHOOD OF FOG BEING TRULY DENSE AND OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE...AFFECTING ONLY A FRACTION OF OUR CWA AT MOST). LOW
TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY, WITH MID-50S MOST
PLACES...AND TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS (ESPECIALLY
VALLEY/GREELEY/DAWSON COUNTIES) MORE SO LOW 50S.
- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DRIFTING THROUGH HERE AND THERE, THE DAY WILL BE
DRY AND NO WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY AS A WHOLE, UNDER CONTINUED
MOISTURE-STARVED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COMPARED TO TODAY, IT WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER BUT ALSO LESS WINDY (A SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL COMBINATION FOR THE FALL SEASON WHERE WARMER DAYS OFTEN
FEATURE MORE WIND). IN SHORT, THE WARMER AIRMASS IS ADVECTED IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST...WHILE THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL
BE DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE SURFACE GRADIENT. IN FACT, THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING "EXACT" WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE
DAY, AS WHILE SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY ONLY BE AROUND 10 MPH,
DIRECTION WILL PROBABLY FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY IN ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, WHILE NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES
WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY. NO
MATTER WHAT, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A SOLID 5-8 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY...MOST AREAS AIMED BETWEEN 83-87.
- TUESDAY NIGHT:
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, AS A WEAK BOUNDARY GRADUALLY TURNS LIGHT
WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND/OR NORTHWESTERLY AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
LIKE TONIGHT, MODELS (SUCH AS HRRR/RAP) AT LEAST WEAKLY SUGGEST
THAT PATCHY FOG COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE, BUT THIS TIME MAINLY
IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST
TOWARD SUNRISE (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR FORECAST INTRODUCTION AT
THIS TIME). LOW TEMPS AIMED SIMILAR TO TONIGHT MOST PLACES (MID
50S), BUT A SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCE FOR UPPER 40S FAR NORTH/WEST-
CENTRAL.
- WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT:
HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT). DAYTIME BREEZES AGAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT (AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS),
BUT THIS TIME SHIFTING FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE EASTERLY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH-THROUGH-EAST. HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S MOST
NEB ZONES BUT STILL LOW-MID 80S ALONG NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE KS BORDER.
FOR LATE WED NIGHT, THE 12Z NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 12Z
ECMWF) SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD TRY DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY SIGNAL IN OTHER MODELS HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME (SPC IS CARRYING SOME GENERIC "GENERAL THUNDER"
CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME). LOW TEMPS AGAIN
MAINLY MID 50S MOST AREAS.
- THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT, WE STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPOTTY/WEAK CONVECTION, BUT OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY DRY WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH-THROUGH-EAST. TEMPERATURE-WISE, THURSDAY IS A ONE-DAY
SLIGHT COOL-DOWN (EVEN IF IT STAYS DRY), WITH HIGHS MORE SO MID-
UPPER 70S MOST AREAS, BUT AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN FRIDAY
STRONGLY SUSPECT OUR GOING HIGHS ALSO IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE
LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL (LOOK FOR THESE TO TREND UP IN
LATER FORECASTS).
- SATURDAY-MONDAY:
NO POINT HERE IN REHASHING IN LENGTH WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN
DISCUSSED ABOVE. IN SHORT, MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME LIKELY
REMAINS DRY, BREEZY AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST SUGGESTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER/CURRENTLY
PREFERRED ECMWF EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH COMES TO
PASS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO NEAR 12
KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH MODELS INDICATING A LLJ
DEVELOPING BY 06/04Z, RESULTING IN MODEST LLWS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10KTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS IN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA PROMOTING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES LESS THAN 10 KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ROSSI
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