960
FXUS63 KGID 172111 CCA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
411 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE LATER WARMING UP TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
- THOUGH LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE MID 30S TONIGHT,
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OR WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD STILL SEE
SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FROST FORM.
- THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL FRIDAY (30-50%
CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY (SATURDAY) THROUGH TUESDAY...
FOLLOWING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EARLIER THIS MORNING,
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE A QUICK RECOVERY TODAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S. THIS WARMUP HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSISTED BY STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING WINDS ACROSS THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THOUGH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY NOT FALL AS
LOW AS THIS PAST MORNING (OVERNIGHT LOWS: MID 30S TO MID 40S), A FEW
AREAS OF FROST MAY STILL BE ABLE TO FORM TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEST OR NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES.
ALOFT, RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION SHIFTS EAST AND
OVER INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., CLEARING SKIES AND SUPPRESSING ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM SUBSIDENCE. WINDS SPEEDING NEAR 15-
20MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH THIS AFTERNOON COME AS
YESTERDAY'S STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LEAVES BEHIND A COMPRESSED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AS
WELL, HELPING HIGHS BREAK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MAINLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
COULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S (ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE).
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS (LREF MEMBERS) CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TIMING AND INTENSITY OF HOW
THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN INTENSIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SHOULD TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY
TO EXPAND UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. THE
NEXT PATTERN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BUILDING TROUGH WORKS TO PUSH THE RIDGING PATTERN OUT. IN ADDITION,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA ITS NEXT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/SATURDAY). GIVEN
THE ABSENCE IF ANY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGING PATTERN, BROAD SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLEAR SKIES AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH (180-210 DEGREES) TODAY
BETWEEN 15-20KTS AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GUSTS HOVERING AROUND 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL APPEAR BETWEEN MAINLY 3-12Z AS THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. WIND DIRECTIONS SUNDAY MAY
BECOME MORE DUE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING ACROSS
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS (10-20KTS GUSTING UP
TO 30KTS).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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