666
FXUS63 KGID 312341
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
541 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH FAR FROM FRIGID, 2026 WILL GET OFF TO A CHILLIER
START FOR THURS-FRI AND LIKELY ALSO FEATURE SOME PESKY LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH NOT
CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECAST, FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING COULD
POSSIBLY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX TO
MAINLY OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST COUNTIES?
- SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A LEGITIMATELY MILD AND LIKELY
DRY PATTERN RESUMES FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S (SOME LOW 60S TOO ESPECIALLY SOUTH/WEST).
- PEEKING SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE 7-DAY: THERE ARE AT LEAST "HINTS"
OF MAYBE SOME MORE LEGITIMATE PRECIP CHANCES...THE LATEST GFS
MORE FAVORING THURS (JAN. 8TH) AND THE LATEST ECMWF MORE SO
FAVORING FRI (JAN 9TH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:
- IN THE SHORTER TERM, THESE NEXT COUPLE DAYS (THURS-FRI) WILL
LIKELY BE "PESKY" REGARDING VARIOUS FORECAST
ELEMENTS...INCLUDING: CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL (AND
RESULTANT IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS), AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LIGHT ROUND OF PRECIP (SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX) FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING MAINLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL IS NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST, BUT NEEDS
MONITORED.
- FOR THE SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY STRETCH, IT'S MAINLY JUST A
"TEMPERATURE FORECAST" AS OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE CERTAINLY HAS NO
MAJOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES, BUT FOR THOSE WATCHING CLOSELY: HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY AND MON-TUES TRENDED UP A FEW DEGREES, WHILE
HIGHS SUNDAY ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWN 3-6 DEGREES.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH WED JAN. 7):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
KUDOS TO PRECEDING NIGHT SHIFTER FOR NUDGING UP HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY, AS THEY NOT ONLY REACHED THOSE VALUES BUT EXCEEDED BY A
FEW DEGREES MORE...WITH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CWA) ON TRACK
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 59-64. AT GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS AIRPORTS (OUR
TWO OFFICIAL CLIMATE RECORDS SITES): THIS WAS GRAND ISLAND'S
WARMEST NEW YEAR'S EVE/DEC. 31ST IN 26 YEARS (SINCE
1999)...HASTINGS ACTUALLY ENDED UP TYING IT'S DEC. 31ST RECORD
HIGH OF 61 (FIRST SET IN 1956)!
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT OUR REGION
RESIDES UNDER LARGE-SCALE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...DIRECTED BETWEEN
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...AND A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE, TODAY'S VERY MILD TEMPS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN BY
MODESTLY-BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS (SUSTAINED AT LEAST 10-15
MPH/GUSTS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON) AND RESULTANT
DOWNSLOPE/WARMING FLOW, ALONG WITH ALMOST PRISTINE/FULL
SUNSHINE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SLIGHTLY OVER-ACHIEVING
TEMPERATURES HAVE HELPED TO GIVE RISE TO "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA,
BUT THIS THREAT WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 5 PM AS COOLING COMMENCES.
- TONIGHT:
WE BEGIN A 36-48 STRETCH THAT WILL FOR SURE FEATURE CHILLIER
WEATHER, BUT THAT ALSO FEATURES A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN VARIOUS ELEMENTS INCLUDING CLOUD COVER, FOG POTENTIAL AND
TEMPS. IN THE BIG PICTURE, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE NOSING
DOWN THROUGH MN/IA WILL HELP DRIVE A CLASSIC "BACKDOOR" COLD
FRONT DOWN INTO OUR CWA OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AS OF THIS
WRITING, AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS (WITH SOME LIGHT FOG AT
LEAST ALONG/NEAR ITS LEADING EDGE) IS LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 100
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN EDGES OF OUR CWA, AND IS
ON A STEADY APPROACH. LEANING ON THESE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DATA, THIS MASS OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER OUR FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY
8-9 PM, ITS ARRIVAL MARKED BY A SWITCH TO MORE NORTHERLY
BREEZES GUSTING AT LEAST 15-20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON, THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUR CENTRAL
CWA, BUT EVENTUALLY MORE OR LESS "STALL OUT" OVER OUR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS SURFACE BREEZES BECOME LIGHTER AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY. THE "MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION" AT
LEAST IN TERMS OF POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS WHETHER (OR
NOT) MUCH FOG WILL TRY FORMING ESPECIALLY ALONG/NEAR THE EDGES
OF THIS LOW CLOUD MASS. RECENT RUNS OF HIGHER-RES VISIBILITY
PROGS FROM MODELS SUCH AS HRRR/RAP HAVE FLUCTUATED REGARDING THE
AREAL COVERAGE/DENSITY OF POSSIBLE FOG, BUT AT LEAST A NARROW
BAND OF FOG SEEMS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN ESPECIALLY OUR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 AM, SOME OF WHICH
MIGHT BE LOCALIZED DENSE (VISIBILITY DOWN AROUND 1/4 MILE).
ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN FOG TRENDS IS ADMITTEDLY LOW AT
THIS TIME, DECIDED TO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TEMP-WISE,
LOWS WERE CHANGED LITTLE, WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED 21-25.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME:
HAPPY NEW YEAR...AND "HAPPY" COOL DOWN! ALTHOUGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT DETAILS" CONTINUES TO RUN ON THE LOWER
SIDE, THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT THE DAY WILL START WITH
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOWER CLOUDS AND AT LEAST "SOME FOG"
(PARTICULARLY IN A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE EDGES OF THE LOWEST
STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES). HOWEVER, AS SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL WINDS START TO PICK UP SPEED BY MID-LATE MORNING OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10-15 MPH/GUSTS AROUND
20), THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STEADILY LIFT/VACATE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AND ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. HOWEVER, EVEN AS LOWER CLOUDS
VACATE THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN OVERALL MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST AREAS. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY, AS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL CLOUDS, ALL BUT
ASSURES THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
(SOME PLACES PUSHING 20 COOLER). HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO SURELY
BE A DECENT EAST (COOLER) TO WEST (WARMER) GRADIENT. LEANING ON
A MULTI-MODEL BLEND, ENDED UP NUDGING UP HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NOW AIMED FROM LOW 40S FAR EAST...TO MID-
UPPER 40S CENTRAL...TO LOW-MID 50S FAR WEST.
- THURSDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST, THERE ARE
INCREASING SIGNS THAT AT LEAST THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF OUR CWA
COULD SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS (AND POSSIBLY FOG?) AS ANOTHER
WEAK/REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIDES BACK IN FROM THE NORTH/EAST
ON LIGHT BREEZES...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPS AIMED 23-28 MOST PLACES.
- FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT:
IN SOME WAYS, AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A "REPEAT" OF THURSDAY...AS
THE DAY WILL LIKELY START WITH A BATCH OF LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG
(MAINLY EAST), WHICH WOULD VACATE BUT THERE WOULD AGAIN BE
PLENTY OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. FURTHERMORE, (AND UNLIKE
THURSDAY), THERE IS EVEN SOME SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WHAT WOULD
LIKELY BE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...MOST FAVORING OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSES BY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FOR NOW, OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS "DRY" DUE TO
PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) TOPPING OUT ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT
LATER FORECASTS MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO ADD SOME OFFICIAL PRECIP
MENTION (OR AT THE VERY LEAST FLURRIES). TEMPERATURE-WISE,
ANOTHER TRICKY DAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS (AND THE FAIRLY
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WON'T HELP WARMING MUCH EITHER).
KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS...AIMING FROM ONLY MID-UPPER 30S
NORTHEAST...TO NEAR-40 CENTRAL...TO AS WARM AS UPPER
40S/NEAR-50 FAR SOUTHWEST.
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
IN SHORT, WE RETURN TO WHAT "IN THEORY" IS A MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH FEWER CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MORE "WARMING-FAVORABLE" WINDS OUT OF MAINLY THE WEST (SAT)
AND SOUTH (SUNDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE BREEZIER OF THE TWO
DAYS). SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE CLOUDIER OF THE TWO DAYS
(MAINLY HIGH LEVEL), WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS TO SOME DEGREE WHY
TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SOME. ALL IN ALL THOUGH, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S, WITH
SOME 60S ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
- MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF HINTS AT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL AROUND TUES NIGHT-WED AM WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE,
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS CLEARLY SUPPORTS KEEPING THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESIDES UNDER FAIRLY BENIGN
QUASI-ZONAL (WEST-EAST) FLOW ALOFT. IF ANYTHING, HIGH TEMPS WERE
NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY, BUT OVERALL MOST OF THE CWA AIMED SOMEWHERE
IN THE 50S ALL THREE DAYS...WITH SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT FROM FOG AS WELL AS THE
APPROACH OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH IFR TO BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
(3-15Z). CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME TO FIRST TO TANK AS A DECK
OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-5Z
(LIKELY ARRIVING 30MIN TO 1 HOUR AT KGRI BEFORE KEAR). CEILINGS
UPSTREAM HAVE KEPT BASES BETWEEN 800-1,200FT FROM THIS DECK OF
CLOUDS. WE SUSPECT THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL HOLD OUT THROUGH
15-16Z. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, FOG LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT (9-11Z) WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 1-3
MILES POSSIBLE THROUGH 14-16Z.
BEYOND THE CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, LIGHT WINDS WILL OUT
OF THE NORTH (<10KTS) WILL TURN OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON COULD GUST UP TO
15-20KTS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...STUMP
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