822
FXUS63 KGID 051158
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM HARLAN TO POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 101 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS
HIGH AS 107 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM POLK TO WEBSTER TO ROOKS COUNTY. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS, GUSTY WINDS UP TO NEAR 60MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- THOUGH A FEW AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
THE BETTER STORM CHANCES TONIGHT WILL COME DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST POTENTIAL (30-50%) WILL BE
CONCENTRATED TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
(LOCATIONS NEAR, NORTH OR WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES).
- HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 100S.
HIGHS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOK TO SPAN THE 80S TO LOW
90S.
- THE NEXT BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY (20-40%
CHANCES), MONDAY NIGHT (20-60% CHANCES) AND TUESDAY NIGHT
(15-65% CHANCES).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
BRIEF OVERVIEW...
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AROUND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH RIDGING PATTERNS ARE OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FROM SUPPRESSING MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE, A FEW SCATTERED STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE TO POP UP
ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA.
TODAY...
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM POLK TO WEBSTER TO ROOKS COUNTY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO INITIALIZE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT, SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
HAVE A CHANCE TO DRIFT OVER INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
CURRENT HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE (HREF MEMBERS) DOES NOT
SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TIMING. THOUGH MOST MODELS
INCLUDING THE HRRR HAVE A LATER ARRIVAL OF STORMS (AFTER MIDNIGHT),
A FEW MODELS, INCLUDING THE NAMNEST RESOLVE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TO EVENING STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) WILL
BE FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA (AREAS
CLOSER TO WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE). THOUGH NOT EVERY
STORM WILL BECOME SEVERE, A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS, ESPECIALLY
EARLIER ON IN THE EVENING/NIGHT, WILL BE POSSIBLE TO BECOME SEVERE.
CONDITIONS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH (MAINLY UP
TO 1" OR QUARTER SIZED) OR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO
60MPH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW CONDUCIVE THE SEVERE
STORM ENVIRONMENT MAY BE AT THAT TIME OF DAY GIVEN DECREASING MUCAPE
VALUES (1,000-2,000 J/KG) AND A FAIRLY MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILE (20-
25KTS). GIVEN A HEALTHY MOISTURE FLUX FROM SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS, PWAT VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED TO INFLATE TO AS HIGH AS 1.5-
1.75IN. THIS HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER CONTENT MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT
STORMS.
BESIDES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH BACK UP TO THE 90S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS POSSIBLE TO REACH THE LOW 100S IN A FEW NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP INTO THE UPPER
90S TO AS HIGH AS 107 DEGREES (WARMEST VALUES TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND
EAST). AS RESULT TO THE LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES
(LOW TO MID 70S LOWS) AND THE RETURN OF HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105
DEGREES IN PLACES, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM THIS
EVENING FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HARLAN TO
POLK COUNTY.
SUNDAY & MONDAY...
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO RETURN BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ADDITIONALLY RETURN
SUNDAY (20-40% CHANCES) AND MONDAY NIGHT (20-60% CHANCES). GIVEN THE
CONTINUATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING, THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME RELIANT ON THE DAY TO DAY LOCAL CONDITIONS
THAT ARE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY HOW STORMS EVOLVE FROM THE NIGHT
PREVIOUS (LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM MORE POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE UNDER THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOW 90S TO AROUND 101 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 109 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD/NEAR THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM
REACHING EXPECTED HIGHS. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. NEAR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS. THE RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN THE MID 70S
WHILE THE EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 70S. SIMILAR LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE GIVEN FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT AROUND A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT WILL
MOSTLY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED, AT THIS TIME, TO BE
BELOW 105 DEGREES BUT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 103
DEGREES ACROSS (MAINLY SOUTHERN) PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASED (UP TO 55%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
MORE IMPACT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. LOW
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (15% TO 25%) CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETAIN THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD BRIEFLY INTRODUCE
CLOUD BASES BELOW 10,000FT. THOUGH A ROGUE EVENING STORM CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL COME
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF GUST AS HIGH AS AROUND 40KTS OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A GUSTY
FRONT AHEAD OF ANY STORM THAT NEARS THE TERMINAL SITES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST (5-15KTS).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-063-064-
074>077-083>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...STUMP
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...STUMP
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