367
FXUS63 KGID 160539
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1139 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM FOR A FEW SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. MORE WIDESPREAD AND EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
- THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT (10-40%).
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE WITH THE OVERALL
BEST POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TOWARDS THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A 30-40 DEGREE DROP IN HIGHS TO THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S BY FRIDAY.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO POPS LIES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY
RESIDES THURSDAY (10-40% CHANCES) AND FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
(30-40% CHANCES). SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE.
- DESPITE THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO POPS, LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING KEEPS FORECAST AMOUNTS LIMITED TO ONLY A
TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY TO EXPIRE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON DENOTES THE ONSET OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS RESULT, SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WINDS HAVE HELPED PUMP IN A
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS. A SECONDARY RESURGENCE OF THESE 20-30MPH WIND
GUSTS MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS CALMING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. ALOFT, A GENTLE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP THINGS MORE STABLE,
ASSISTING ON KEEPING THE PERIOD (THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON) DRY AND
WARM (ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SUBSIDENCE). BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45+MPH) AS A
AROUND 990MB SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
THE COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT (ADIABATIC WARMING) AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES (DIURNAL WARMING) MAY HELP HIGHS EASILY REACH THE MID
70S TO EVEN POTENTIALLY THE LOW 80S FOR A FEW LOCATIONS (40-80%
CHANCES). THESE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY WILL FEEL UNNATURAL FOR
FEBRUARY AS TEMPERATURES RACE TOWARDS RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS RECORD BREAKING HEAT, PLEASE REFER TO
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. IN ADDITION, THE RETURN OF BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGHER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE FULL AREA FOR BETWEEN NOON AND 8PM. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FIE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN SHAKE UP WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT, TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKING
SURFACE LOW, LAUNCHES ON THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, WE
RETAIN ONLY 10-40% POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL IN ALL LIKELINESS
BE MINIMAL AND NOT WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGE FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
TUMBLING OF TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY TAKE A 30-40 DEGREE SLIDE ACROSS THE PERIOD (FROM THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S DOWN TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S). A POWERING CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ROAMING JET ALOFT WILL ALSO WORK TO STIR UP THE
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOCALLY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY (10-40% CHANCES)
AND FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING (30-40% CHANCES). DUE TO
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN LONG-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE
(GFS/ECMWF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY), AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO
POPS RESIDE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF NON-ZERO POPS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY FAVOR MORE MODEST QUANTITIES (<0.2" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT).
GIVEN THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, SNOW WILL
BECOME THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
WE DO NOT INDICATE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH IN TOTAL. AS OF NOW THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FAVORS OUR
NORTHERN MOST AREAS. OUR GENERAL CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND ANY
POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE AS THIS PERIOD BECOMES CLOSER
IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THEN WILL BECOME
VARIABLE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z TO 18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT (UNDER 10
KNOTS). WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
09Z. FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 11Z TO 16Z BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
(LESS THAN 20%) SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DESPITE A FEW DRIER LOCATIONS OUT WEST ON MONDAY, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS UNDERNEATH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP ANY
FIRE CONCERNS OUT OF THE DISCUSSION. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AS VERY GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS (30-45+ WIND GUSTS) MEET DRYING CONDITIONS (MINIMUM RH VALUES
10-25%). A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS SHIFT FOR THE
PERIOD NOON THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FULL AREA.
A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MONTANA ON TUESDAY WILL DRIVE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-
45MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ADDITIONALLY TRANSPORT IN A WARMER
AND DRIER AIRMASS, ALSO HELPING DETERIORATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RECORD HIGH HEAT (MID 70S TO LOW 80S) COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AS LOW AS 10-25% AREAWIDE, GENERALLY DRIER
HEADING WEST. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALREADY LOOK TO
BE A GIVEN WITH THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-281 (AREAS MORE
LIKELY TO SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 20%). THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX (GFDI) VALUES ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO RANGE THE VERY HIGH
(LEVEL 4 OF 6) AND EXTREME (LEVEL 5 OF 6) CLASSIFICATIONS TUESDAY,
FURTHER BUILDING OUR CONFIDENCE FOR A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DAY.
THOUGH WEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (GUSTS ONLY AS
HIGH AS 15-25MPH), NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES MAINLY BETWEEN
10-20%).
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
APPROACHED/BROKEN AT VARIOUS POINTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR BOTH
GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT (RECORDS BACK TO 1896) AND HASTINGS AIRPORT
(RECORDS BACK TO 1908).
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST/OBSERVED*
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 15: 67 IN 1921 | 67* TIED RECORD
FEB. 16: 73 IN 2017 / 1921 | 69
FEB. 17: 72 IN 2017 | 77
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 16: 74 IN 2017 | 69
FEB. 17: 74 IN 1981 | 77
- RECORD WARM LOW/MIN TEMPERATURE | LATEST FORECAST
GRAND ISLAND, NE (GRI)
FEB. 16: 38 IN 2011 | 37
FEB. 17: 41 IN 1981 | 42
---------------
HASTINGS, NE (HSI)
FEB. 16: 39 IN 2011 | 38
FEB. 17: 37 IN 1972 | 43
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
CLIMATE...STUMP
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