115
FXUS63 KGID 142146
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
446 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT STORMS LIKELY: MAINLY AFTER 1 AM,
AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A LARGER-
SCALE/ORGANIZED COMPLEX...WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
(CWA) OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, POSSIBLY BRINGING A THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO ~ 60 MPH TO COUNTIES
ALONG/ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80.
- RINSE/REPEAT THE "NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORM ROUTINE" SATURDAY
NIGHT: WHILE SPOTTY/WEAK STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
SAT AM, THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON-EVENING LOOKS DRY
BEFORE YET ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORMS
ARRIVES LATER IN THE NIGHT. AGAIN, A MARGINAL RISK FOR
PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...CURRENTLY MOST FAVORING OUR
WESTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN CWA.
- LIMITED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH SAT NIGHT:
THOUGH NOT A MAJOR CONCERN, AT LEAST SMALL PORTIONS OF OF
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA COULD PICK UP AT LEAST
1-3" OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY
GETTING 1-2" BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. WHILE MOST OF THIS
SHOULD SOAK IN FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY/WITHOUT TROUBLE, REPEATED
ROUNDS COULD CAUSE INSTANCES OF LOCALIZED/NUISANCE FLOODING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND SAT NIGHT: ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY-MONDAY,
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD IS LOWER THAN THE PRECEDING FEW NIGHTS.
ALTHOUGH TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PUT TOO MUCH FAITH INTO,
SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES COULD ARRIVE MID-WEEK.
- TEMPERATURE OVERVIEW: FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA, THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-UPPER 80S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. ANY 90S APPEAR MOST FAVORED IN OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES BOTH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTIES:
- BY FAR THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVE TRYING TO DECIPHER
THE "EXACT" DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL THESE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. WHILE NOTHING IS "SET IN
STONE", WE AT LEAST HAVE "LIKELY" CHANCES/POPS (60+%) IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BOTH NIGHTS.
- LATEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED FOR
A FEW DAYS HERE, HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD FOR
SUNDAY- MONDAY...WITH ANY COOLER 70S NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.
THAT BEING SAID, CURRENT INDICATIONS NOW POINT TO WED-THURS
BEING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 70S...IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TENTATIVELY SLATED FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- BIG PICTURE OVERVIEW OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK: AS IS TYPICAL OF A SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THAT
FEATURES SEMI-REGULAR RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
REASONABLY CLOSE TO "NORMAL" MOST DAYS, OUR REGION WILL SPEND
THE ENTIRE TIME ALONG THE GENERAL INTERFACE BETWEEN A LARGE-
SCALE HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST-THROUGH-
SOUTHWEST...AND THE PRIMARY UPPER JET CORE CENTERED AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, THE SPATIAL ORIENTATION OF
OUR UPPER FLOW WILL EVOLVE FROM MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY THESE
NEXT 24 HOURS (UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINLY AR/LA/MS)...TO
MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY SUN-TUES (AS THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES
BACK WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TO FINALLY MORE
NORTHWESTERLY WED-FRI AS THE HIGH SETS UP SHOP EVEN FARTHER
WEST CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS (AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH/LOW
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH FRI AUG. 21):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT FORTUNATELY
PRODUCED VERY MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER (BUT DROPPED AS MUCH AS
2-3" OF BENEFICIAL RAIN ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM ROUGHLY ALMA-
HASTINGS), THIS MORNING FEATURED LINGERING-BUT-GRADUALLY-
DEPARTING SHOWERS, WHILE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN DRY FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT
TERM MODEL DATA CLEARLY REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE
(ACTUALLY A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/MCV) DEPARTING
TO OUR EAST OVER IA, WHILE WE BRIEFLY RESIDE "IN BETWEEN"
DISTURBANCES...WITH THE NEXT ONE GRADUALLY APPROACHING OUT OF
CO.
WHILE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST ALL AREAS EARLIER IN THE
DAY, SUNSHINE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN OUR WESTERN
HALF, WHILE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER LONGER IN OUR
EAST. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS AT
LEAST MOSTLY ON TRACK...WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR NEBRASKA CWA
REALIZING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S, AND MORE SO UPPER 80S-LOW
90S IN KS. OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CWA (MAINLY MITCHELL COUNTY
KS) COULD MAKE A LATE-DAY/EARLY EVENING RUN AT A 100+ HEAT
INDEX, BUT THIS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY-UNLIKELY WITH TIME).
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
IN SHORT, THE NEXT/AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CO
GRADUALLY APPROACHES/INVADES OUR CWA...ALBEIT ARRIVING A BIT
LATER THAN LAST NIGHT'S DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA LIKELY REMAINS THUNDERSTORM-FREE THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM (PERHAPS A FEW SPOTTY STORMS TRY BRUSHING INTO OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SUCH AS MITCHELL/JEWELL/THAYER A BIT
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT?). BEYOND 1 AM, HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS
HRRR (WHICH BY THE WAY HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS), BRINGS AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS...AND POSSIBLY AT
LEAST A SMALL-SCALE/ORGANIZED CLUSTER...INTO OUR CWA FROM WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT, FAIRLY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WORKING AGAINST MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT, BUT IF A COLD POOL/ORGANIZED OUTFLOW SURGE CAN
GET GOING, ESPECIALLY SOME COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 COULD
SEE A BLAST OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE WINDS...MAINLY 50-60
MPH, ALONG WITH PERHAPS A QUICK 1-2" OF RAIN.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT, LOW TEMPS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT (MAINLY MID
60S-LOW 70S, AND WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. ONE THING NOT
CURRENTLY IN OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST (BUT BEARS WATCHING) IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
SUGGESTING SOME FOG ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE ANY CONVECTION/RELATED OUTFLOW WOULD BE WEAKEST AND/OR
LAST TO ARRIVE (SOMETHING TO WATCH).
- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
IN MANY WAYS VERY SIMILAR TO HOW TODAY EVOLVED. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEPART VERSUS
TODAY, THE MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY FEATURE A BIT GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK STORMS COMPARED TO
TODAY...POSSIBLY EVEN LINGERING INTO EARLY-AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER, LIKE TODAY, THE VAST MAJORITY
OF OUR CWA IS LOOKING AT A DRY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY-
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...AGAIN MAINLY 80S IN NEBRASKA, AND LOW-MID 90S MORE
FAVORED IN KANSAS. FOR ONE FINAL DAY, OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
(MAINLY MITCHELL COUNTY) COULD SEE 100+ HEAT INDEX, BUT SHOULD
FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE WILL BE A TOUCH MORE
BREEZE THAN TODAY, BUT ONLY AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
- SATURDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
YOU KNOW THIS ROUTINE BY NOW: FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY EVENING,
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARRIVE MAINLY POST-MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING ONE COMPLEX OF STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
OUR FAR WESTERN CWA< WHILE ANOTHER ONE RIDES UP INTO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...POTENTIALLY MERGING
TOGETHER ROUGHLY ALONG THE STATE LINE. THESE DETAILS COULD OF
COURSE YET CHANGE, BUT AGAIN WE'LL BE LOOKING AT A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE...MAINLY FOR WINDS UP TO ~ 60 MPH, ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOCALIZED/NUISANCE FLOODING FROM 1-2" OF RAIN. NO MATTER,
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA THAN THE NORTH HALF (AND HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS). LOW TEMPS MAINLY LOW-MID 60S.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
ALTHOUGH THE MORNING WILL SURELY FEATURE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS...AND THE OVERNIGHT COULD AGAIN BRING AT
LEAST LIMITED ACTIVITY...THIS OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DRIER 24
HOURS AS OUR FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TRANSITION TO MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE NUDGED UP A BIT, WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF OUR CWA AIMED LOW-MID 80S (OUR KS ZONES FINALLY
SHAKE THE HOTTER 90S/100S OF PRECEDING DAYS). SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPS ALSO SLIGHTLY COOLER...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOW 60S
MOST PLACES.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
MOST OF THESE 48 HOURS LOOK MOSTLY DRY, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH
TUES NIGHT FOR PERHAPS OUR NEXT BEST SHOT AT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS
AS AN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MON-TUES WILL
BE PROGRESSIVELY WARMER, WITH HIGHS NOW AIMED MAINLY MID 80S ON
MONDAY, AND UPPER 80S-MID 90S ON TUESDAY (WARMEST IN KS)...WITH
THIS FAIRLY CLEARLY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
WHILE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT/STILL-HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE OVERALL-MORE-CONFIDENT SIGNAL AT THIS
TIME RANGE IS FOR A DECENT LITTLE COOL-DOWN IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT, BOTH WED-THURS ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE HIGHS ONLY UPPER 70S-MID 80S AT
MOST...WITH FRIDAY THEN VERY PRELIMINARY SHOWING A SLIGHT -WARM
UP TO MAINLY LOW-MID 80S MOST AREAS AND UPPER 80S-LOW 90S FAR
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
IT'S ANOTHER TRICKY TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
CEILING TRENDS AND MAINLY LATE OVERNIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME LIGHT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. IN SHORT, THE MAJORITY
OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS, BUT AT
LEAST SPORADIC MVFR IS POSSIBLE THESE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR (POSSIBLY EVEN IFR?)
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COMPARED TO OTHER
ELEMENTS, WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH A "NON-ISSUE" (ASIDE FROM ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW), AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE LIGHT (AT-OR-BELOW
6KT), WITH DIRECTION BEST DESCRIBED AS VARIABLE (VRB).
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND VARIOUS
UNCERTAINTIES:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOWER
CLOUDS ARE PRESENT, WITH MVFR CEILING POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
20Z, AFTER WHICH TIME PREVAILING TRENDS SHOULD GO SCATTERED
AND/OR ANY INTERMITTENT CEILING RISES TO LOW-END VFR. THIS
EVENING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
IN VFR CEILING, BUT PROBABLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FOG
TRYING TO FORM AND REDUCE VISIBILITY (NOT REFLECTED IN CURRENT
TAFS). THEN, VERY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THERE
WILL BE A HALFWAY-DECENT CHANCE OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST (SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY UNLIKELY,
BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT). FOR NOW, HAVE GONE
WITH ONLY A BASIC PROB30 GROUP TO CAPTURE THE PRIMARY SIX-HOUR
"WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY" FOR THIS CONVECTION...08-14Z KEAR/09-15Z
KGRI. ADDITIONAL VERY SPOTTY/WEAK CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BEYOND 14-15Z, BUT WILL ONLY "HINT" AT THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW.
FINALLY, THE LAST REAL QUESTION OF THE PERIOD IS: DOES CEILING
AND/OR VISIBILITY SLIP TO AT LEAST MVFR AT SOME POINT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING? UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY HERE, AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FOR
NOW HAVE MAINTAINED NO WORSE THAN LOW-END VFR IN PREVAILING
GROUPS, BUT THE PROB30 GROUP SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR,
INCLUDING REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN AND/OR LIGHT
FOG.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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