816
FXUS63 KGID 301139
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING HOURS THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON HOW WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE. IF STORMS DO FORM, THEY
COULD BE SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL,
60MPH WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
- HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. A FEW STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG-
SEVERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS BAND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
MORE SCATTERED/ISOLATED BUT ARE LIKEWISE GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS/STORM WILL END FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING, WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER/STORM EXITING THE AREA BY THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON GUSTING 25-35MPH. THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BRING STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA, KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DESPITE DAYTIME MIXING. THIS WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8 C/KM) WILL
RESULT IN CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE
SHARPENS THIS AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE FIRST AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THESE STORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING-
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SECOND AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS WOULD LIFT INTO
NORTH/NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. INBETWEEN THESE TWO
CLUSTERS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS FORCING IS
WEAKER. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA (00Z NAM3K, RRFS) TO THE AREA REMAINING
MOSTLY-COMPLETELY DRY (00Z HRRR, WRF-NSSL). THIS SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TODAY'S SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS IF STORMS DO FORM IN NORTHWEST
KS/SOUTHWEST NE, CAPE WOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING
SEVERE. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS TO BE MODEST SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WHICH MAY LIMIT JUST HOW STRONG
STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET. STILL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
STORMS PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL, 60MPH WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO (TORNADO THREAT DEPENDS ON STORMS REMAINING
DISCRETE/ISOLATED). THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BAND OF STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE A STORM/SEVERE
STORM.
WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL-EASTERN NEBRASKA. SIMILAR TO TODAY/SATURDAY IF/WHEN STORMS
FORM, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG-
SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 25-30KTS.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE, BUT THESE ARE
MOSTLY EXITING THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST, EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE INBETWEEN DISTURBANCES...WITH THESE BREAKS
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON
THIS DISTURBANCE ALL DAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASING THEIR AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS
THE DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA, SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THAT SAID, A
FEW PULSY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
AREAS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COVERAGE AREA. WHILE THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE EXITING THE LOCAL AREA AROUND DAYBREAK,
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO HANG ON TO SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, SO GRADUALLY TAPERED OFF POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
THE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL THEN CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP, LITTLE
FORCING WILL BE NEEDED TO GET SOME ACTIVITY GOING BY EARLY
EVENING, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN, SHEAR IS WEAK. GIVEN THE VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY, COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, AND KEPT THE WORDING FOR PING PONG POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE HWO.
THEREAFTER...A MESSY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S (NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR LATE MAY/EARLY
JUNE).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KEAR THROUGH 15Z, THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KGRI. DURING THE LATE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KGRI/KEAR. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE, THOUGH THE
DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME(SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP). HAVE INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
NOW. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DROP OFF BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD, LOWEST WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET, AS GUSTS DROP BELOW 20KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
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