565
FXUS63 KGID 141902
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
202 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, STRONGEST ALONG/W OF HWY 281.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00" ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5"
POSSIBLE.
- THE COOLEST AIR OF THE FALL, THUS FAR, ALONG WITH THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME, WITH SOME SCATTERED
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INCREASINGLY LIKELY - ESPECIALLY
IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLEST SPOTS.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM 60S INTO THE
70S EXPECTED WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF GORGEOUS FALL
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM S TO N TODAY. MOST AREAS WON'T SEE
SUNSHINE AGAIN UNTIL FRIDAY AM. THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN TODAY
IS SCATTERED, BUT THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER CORES WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. LATEST GUIDANCE LIFTS THIS ACTIVITY S TO
N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING
WITH NORTHERN EXTENT/TIME.
A MUCH LARGER, AND MORE PERSISTENT, SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN (AND AGAIN, A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) WILL SPREAD
SW TO NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS BOTH THE LATEST HREF
AND EPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND
0.25" TO 0.75". VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW/S TO NE/N THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAIN BY AROUND
SUNSET THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR A COUPLE HOURS LONGER. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST - SO EVEN
WHEN IT'S NOT RAINING, ITS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY AND RAW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S, BUT IT COULD FEEL
LIKE MID TO UPPER 40S AT TIMES WITH THE BREEZE. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING FROST DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERISTING ALL NIGHT.
STRONGEST HIGH PRESSURE OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR WILL OOZE
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ONLY IN
THE 50S. THE COOL DAYTIME, IN CONJUCTION WITH CLEAR SKIES, WEAK
WINDS ALONG SFC RIDGE AXIS, AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/THICK) FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN OVER THE FAR W/NW, BUT DAMAGE MAY ALREADY
BE DONE IN THESE AREAS BY THEN. FORECAST HAS BEEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH AND EVERY CYCLE, AND NOW ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO, OR JUST BELOW, FREEZING SAT AM. AS SUCH,
WILL LIKELY BY ISSUING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS FOR THIS THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
AUTUMN AIRMASS...AND EXPECT FURTHER MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR
KS ZONES POSSIBLY EVEN TOUCHING THE LOW 80S LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAY HAVE ANOTHER PERIOD OF PATCHY FROST TO CONTEND WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD/THICK FROST...AND LOWS ONLY WARM FURTHER
FROM THERE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO THOSE LOOKING TO EXTEND THE
GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK,
PROVIDED PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE TAKEN FRI NIGHT-SAT AM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
SPREAD IN FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE HELD OFF ON TS FOR
NOW, AND KEPT RAIN AS A TEMPO WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE SINCE THE
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED, BUT BOTH MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED AS THE
AFTERNOON MOVES ON. CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN. BY FAR THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS
(AGAIN, WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER) ARRIVES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
MORNING THURSDAY. WITH THE STEADIER RAIN WILL COME IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE- NE
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT AROUND 7-12KT. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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