655
FXUS63 KGID 022331
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LESSEN THIS EVENING, COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS BY ON FRIDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. LITTLE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
- AFTER A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS, SHOULD MAKE FOR A
NICE EASTER SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
- PRECIP CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO PARTS OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD (AND POTENTIALLY
BENEFICIAL) PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAN BE SEE
ON SATELLITE TRACKING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT
UPPER LOW UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA SPINNING NEAR NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SYSTEMS, CLEARING SKIES ARE
GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
AS SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WINDS DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ALL DAY INDICATING DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WHILE WINDS DO SHIFT AND BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, THEY REMAIN 10-15 MPH,
WHICH ISN'T EXACTLY IDEAL. AS A RESULT, INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY
FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE FRIDAY, BUT DID
NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE HRRR AND MENTION MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE FOG.
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TO REACH THE
PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA BY MID-DAY FRIDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT RAPIDLY TRACKING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
AND BRING A SHIFT IN WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME VERY
SMALL POPS WERE RETAINED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PASSES BY LATER IN THE DAY, THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH, AND CONFIDENCE OF ANY
PRECIP WITH THE LOW ITSELF IS LOW.
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER THEN RETURNS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, BUT WITH A WINDY START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY
COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES,
COULD SEE A RETURN OF ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY,
HOWEVER, LOOKS LIKE REALLY NICE EASTER, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA.
WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTELRY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ALOFT TO START NEXT WEEK, EXPECT MULTIPLE QUICK
PASSING DISTURBANCES TO BRUSH THE LOCAL AREA, AND BECAUSE OF
THIS, EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RETURN OF PRECIP AS
EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE A STRAY PASSING SHOWER CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, THINK THERE ARE MANY MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN EVENTUALLY WILL BE REALIZED...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL PRECIP LIKELY
NOT RETURNING UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING. AN MVFR STRATUS DECK SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH A WINDOW OF VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, AN IFR TO LIFR STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KGRI/KEAR, THOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE RANGING FROM LITTLE
FOG TO WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP, THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HOW DENSE
FOG GETS. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 1SM OR LESS FOG. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR FOG AND THE POTENTIAL PATCHY NATURE OF
FOG. THE TIME MOST FAVORED TO SEE THE DENSEST FOG IS 11-15Z. FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR/LESSEN DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. ANY LINGERING FOG LOOKS TO END AROUND
NOON, WITH MVFR-IFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS BUT BECOMING VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT. PRIOR TO SUNRISE, WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH, AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGRI AND KEAR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
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