937
FXUS63 KGID 111731
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1131 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE VERY MILD FOR MID-JANUARY. TUESDAY
WILL STILL BE WARM, BUT WILL TREND A LITTLE BREEZIER.
- THERE ARE ONLY LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (MAINLY RAIN) AND ON FRIDAY (MAINLY
SNOW).
- THERE IS 60% CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH ON
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
SOME NEAR-TERM MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG THIS
MORNING, BUT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS VERY
LOCALIZED (OR PREVENT IT ENTIRELY).
TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACH THE 40S AND 50S TODAY WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND EVEN
WARMER, AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH THE 60S BY TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THE WARMTH ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND. TUESDAY IS STILL ON-TRACK TO
BREAK RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE. THE RECORD IS 35 DEGREES, AND
THE LATEST FORECAST IS 37 DEGREES.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL KEEPS POPS BELOW 15% FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN RELATIVE
WARMTH, PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH A LITTLE SNOW.
ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING IN
SOME COLDER AIR, WIND, AND ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW). THE EPS HAS BACKED OFF A TOUCH ON WIND GUSTS FOR
FRIDAY, BUT THE LATEST NBM STILL HIGHLIGHTS A 60% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SEE GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ON FRIDAY.
AFTER A COUPLE COOLER DAYS TO END THIS WEEK, ENSEMBLES FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK
(JANUARY 18-24). IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE AS WARM AS THE BEGINNING
OF JANUARY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP US ON-TRACK FOR ONE OF THE
MILDEST JANUARYS ON-RECORD. SNOW CHANCES ALSO LOOK PRETTY
MEAGER UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK (JAN 23-24) AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CURRENTLY...
WHAT HAS BEEN A DRY DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA UP UNTIL NOW WILL
BE ENDING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS, AS A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO CREEP IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR
AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER
THE NORTHERN MN/WI BORDER, WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SSW
THROUGH IA/MO AND INTO OK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
NOSING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN LOW IS HELPING DRIVE
THIS ACTIVITY, AND WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, IT'S
BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT THE SURFACE, AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN GUSTY NW
WINDS. MOST GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE, BUT HERE
HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSER TO 40-45 MPH. BETWEEN THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPS ACROSS THE NNERN HALF OF THE AREA HAVE LEVELED
OFF/DROPPED THIS AFTERNOON (HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE UPPER
30S- LOW 40S)...FURTHER SW STILL SEEING PLENTY OF SUN (AT LEAST
FOR A BIT LONGER), HAS REACHED INTO THE LOW 50S.
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY FLURRIES) WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING OUT SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO END MID-LATE EVENING (POSSIBLY
EARLIER). THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT REMAINS DRY.
THE CURRENT GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT, DROPPING BELOW
10 MPH, TURNING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LOWER AMPLITUDE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY, AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN TODAY (CLOSER TO
10-15 MPH)...OUT OF THE WSW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE
COOLER AIRMASS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH TIME...AND TOGETHER
WITH THE WSW WINDS AND MORE SUN, A BUMP IS EXPECTED IN
TEMPS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS STILL IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST.
NEW WORK WEEK...
OVERALL, COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THERE REALLY HASN'T BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEW WORK WEEK.
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT LOOKING BIG-PICTURE,
BROAD...SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THE
START OF THE WEEK CONTINUES WHAT STARTS ON SUNDAY, LOWER
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT, WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CA COAST.
STARTING ROUGHLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO DIG SSE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS, DRIVING A MUCH
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AT THIS POINT, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS (ROUGHLY TUE NIGHT-WED AM AND
AGAIN FRIDAY-ISH) BEING NOTABLE PRECIPITATION MAKERS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...IN FACT, THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY-SATURDAY
REMAINS LARGELY DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE FOCUSED JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...BUT IT'S ONLY
SATURDAY, STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS DEPENDING ON
MODEL TRENDS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE START OF THE WEEK SEES THE
RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MONDAY IN THE MID
50S-NEAR 60 AND TUESDAY IN THE LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE MID 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40. AT THIS POINT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY RECORD HIGHS, BUT CURRENT FORECAST FLIRTS WITH
WARM LOW TEMP RECORDS FOR THE 13TH (TUESDAY)...FORECAST FOR BOTH
GRI/HSI IS A LOW OF 36, RECORD FOR BOTH IS 35 (SET IN 2002 FOR
GRI, 1987 FOR HSI) FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR, AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY, STRONGER
WINDS. WEDNESDAY HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE 40S, AND AFTER A BRIEF
WARM UP THURSDAY, THE NEXT PUSH OF COLDER AIR DROPS FRI-SAT
MORE INTO THE 30S. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN PUSHES OF NW WINDS
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE
DATA STILL SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF 50 KTS/58 MPH AROUND 10-30
PERCENT FOR A DECENT PORTION OF OUR SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. ANY CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 15K FT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON,
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF TO CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ON, WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page