556
FXUS63 KGID 162018
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
318 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE EVENING (MUCH LATER IN
THE DAY THAN NORMAL) OWING TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
DRY AIR.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 40-45
MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
- THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PRESENT FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS
BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AM AND SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AM. A
FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN DOESN'T COME UNTIL THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PLAYING
OUT AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE INDEED MET
EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND WITH ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING STILL TO GO, COULD SEE SOME SPOTS
OVERACHIEVE INTO THE LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY DRY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S, SO RHS ARE ALSO EXTREMELY LOW IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WELL-MIXED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THANKS TO CONTINUED SRLY FLOW AMIDST A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS, RH RECOVERY WILL BE VERY
SLOW. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ALREADY LATER-THAN-USUAL END TIME
OF THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT'S SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURGE IN GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40-45 MPH WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE. WINDS COULD DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AS THE DAYTIME HOURS PROGRESS ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
CLOUD COVER AND EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL RISE. THUS,
IT'LL FEEL QUITE CHILLY AND BLUSTERY AND GENERALLY NOT VERY
ENJOYABLE...ESP. COMPARED TO TODAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL PRESENT
SOME RISK FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, FOR SOME, ALONG WITH
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST. MORE SPECIFICALLY ON THE FROST
POTENTIAL...IT MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE SINCE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR IT FRI NIGHT-SAT AM, AND THE
AIR MAY SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR IT SAT NIGHT-SUN AM. NONETHELESS,
APPEARS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BY DAWN SAT AM, WITH FAVORED COLD SPOTS IN DAWSON AND
VALLEY/GREELEY COUNTIES POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS
MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TRUE POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER SUN AM WITH MORE OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS, SO
WOULD EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, OR MAYBE
EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY AM, AND FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER HEADLINE
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY IN THAT IT WILL BE CHILLY AND BLUSTERY...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MUCH NICER AS TEMPS REBOUND INTO
THE 70S AMIDST GOOD SUNSHINE AND MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN MORE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK, AND MAY BE BORDERLINE "HOT" (KINDA LIKE TODAY) BY TUE-WED.
MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND DECENT CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION NOT COMING UNTIL ABOUT 7 DAYS FROM NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG SRLY WINDS TODAY, PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TONIGHT, THEN WIND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE
TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MVFR STRATUS FRI AM, AS WELL.
MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE STRONG SRLY WINDS -
SUSTAINED 15-20KT AND GUSTING AROUND 30KT. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER.
BREEZY S WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THIS, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50KT COULD CAUSE
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS FOR BOTH TERMINALS AFTER
ABOUT 03-04Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE AROUND
10-11Z, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN TO THE W THEN NW. STRONG
NW WINDS (SUSTAINED 20-25KT, GUSTS 35-40KT) ARE EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI AM. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME MVFR STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AM. MODELS ARE STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT ON THIS, SO KEPT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD GROUPS AS SCT
FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE: WIND/LLWS/FRONT TIMING - HIGH, CIGS - LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THOUGH SPOTTY POCKETS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, IT REMAINS
QUITE DRY AND SPRING-GREEN-UP HAS YET TO FULLY TAKE HOLD. AS A
RESULT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN IN PLACE ON VARIOUS
UPCOMING DAYS.
- THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME
FOR THE EVENING HOURS, BUT REMAIN BREEZY WELL PAST SUNSET. THE
WELL MIXED LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM RECOVERING AS QUICKLY AS THEY OFTEN DO IN THIS
REGION THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, THE RED FLAG WARNING GOES
UNUSUALLY LATE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PLEASE NOTE: ANY FIRES THAT
MIGHT GET ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL BE SUBJECT TO
A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM.
- FRIDAY:
STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT MOVE IN TONIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY (SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 25-30 MPH,
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR. AS A RESULT, RH IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT AROUND 25-35% FOR MOST AREAS.
- SATURDAY:
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SEASONABLY-COOL WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
50S-LOW 60S, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING
AFTERNOON RH TO DROP WELL DOWN TO AT LEAST 15-20%. WINDS WON'T
BE QUITE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE PLENTY
BREEZY OUT OF THE NW AT SPEEDS GENERALLY SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTING 20-35 MPH (STRONGEST NORTH OF I-80/WEAKEST IN NORTHERN
KS). AS A RESULT, MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
MEET CRITICAL CRITERIA.
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER "ONE DAY BREAK" FROM CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND EVEN GUSTS MOSTLY
UNDER 20 MPH. UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH, POTENTIALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
WITH RH FORECAST S LOW AS 15-20% IN MOST AREAS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUST AT LEAST 25-30 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>076-082>085.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ005-006-017.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
FIRE WEATHER...THIES
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