524  
FXUS63 KGID 260556  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
1256 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 447 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
FOCUSING SOLELY ON THESE FIRST 36 HOURS, THE MAIN  
ISSUES/CHALLENGES INCLUDE: 1) A CHANCE FOR A FEW NON-SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS TO SNEAK INTO MAINLY FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF  
THE COVERAGE AREA (CWA) LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...2) A  
SOMEWHAT LOW-CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LIMITED/PATCHY  
FOG MAINLY IN WEST-NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING...3) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER DAY TUESDAY, WITH MOST  
PLACES INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S FAR  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4PM...  
IF ANYTHING, TODAY HAS FEATURED A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN FIRST  
EXPECTED, AS SEVERAL BREAKS/PARTIAL BREAKS DEVELOPED IN WHAT  
STARTED OUT AS A PRETTY SOLID BLOCK OF LOW CLOUDS (AND EVEN SOME  
FOG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. EVEN SO, NO BIG  
SURPRISES IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS, WITH MOST NEBRASKA ZONES ON  
TRACK TO TOP OUT UPPER 40S-LOW 50S, AND MORE SO MID-50S IN KS.  
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE MAINLY ONLY AVERAGED 5-10  
MPH AT MOST, THANKS TO A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, A COMPACT, BUT  
RELATIVELY-POTENT LITTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CHURNING  
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NE/KS/CO BORDER AREA, CURRENTLY SPARKING  
A LINE/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY  
FLIRTING WITH OUR FURNAS/GOSPER COUNTY AREA LOCALLY. NOW LOOKING  
AHEAD FORECAST-WISE THROUGH THESE NEXT 3 PERIODS...  
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:  
THE MAIN CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED/NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WEST-  
SOUTHWEST ZONES, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-OSBORNE LINE.  
WHILE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/CAPE SHOULD NOT EXCEED A FEW HUNDRED  
J/KG, THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BRUSHING  
THROUGH OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA IS CLEARLY ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST  
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. THE VAST  
MAJORITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF  
WITH LOSS OF HEATING (BY ROUGHLY 9-10 PM). MEANWHILE, FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA NOT EXPECTED TO SEE THIS  
HEAVIER SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ROGUE SPRINKLES/BRIEF  
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT, WITH  
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS UNLIKELY IN MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL  
AVERAGE 5-10 MPH AT MOST, GRADUALLY TURNING FROM MORE EASTERLY TO  
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. WHILE SKIES IN MOST AREAS SHOULD AVERAGE  
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL, SHORT-TERM VISIBILITY PROGS FROM MODELS  
SUCH AS THE HRRR/RAP ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ESPECIALLY OUR  
WESTERN/NORTHWEST NEB ZONES COULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG  
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND HAVE ADDED THIS FAIRLY LOW-  
CONFIDENCE MENTION TO THE FORECAST AS WELL. CHANGED LOW TEMPS,  
VERY LITTLE, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER  
30S.  
 
TUESDAY:  
RIGHT AWAY FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, COULD SEE SOME LINGERING  
PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN WEST-NORTHWEST COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, THERE  
COULD STILL BE A FEW LINGERING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES  
MAINLY IN OUR FAR EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE LAST OF THE LIFT/FORCING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENING'S DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE AREA. IN  
IT'S WAKE, A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS, PAVING THE WAY FOR A NOTICEABLY-WARMER FEW DAYS.  
UNDER AFTERNOON SKIES THAT SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY,  
HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY,  
WITH MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, AND SOME UPPER 60S  
POSSIBLE FAR SOUTHWEST. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY,  
GENERALLY SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH/GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON (PERHAPS PUSHING 30 MPH MAINLY IN KS ZONES).  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT:  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS PASSES  
OVER. STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-20 MPH WILL ALSO PREVAIL,  
HELPING KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH MOST OF THE  
CWA EXPECTED TO HOLD UP WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 447 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
THIS FORECASTER WISHES HE HAD MORE TIME TO DIVE INTO DETAILS, BUT  
WILL NEED TO KEEP THINGS BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL IN THE INTEREST OF  
TIME...  
 
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD:  
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE:  
1) THE WARMEST DAY OF 2019-SO-FAR ON WEDNESDAY (CONFIDENCE HIGH)  
 
2) CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS HELD OFF ANY FORMAL  
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SO FAR, THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORM ACTIVITY AT TIMES, AND WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.  
 
3)ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY, AT LEAST FOR NOW, BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE  
SUGGESTING AT LEAST LIGHT (AND PERHAPS EVEN MODERATE )SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT, AND  
MAINLY WITHIN NEB PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. SHOULD THIS SNOW COME TO  
FRUITION, FAIRLY STRONG (BUT NOT OVERLY-STRONG) NORTH WINDS LOOK  
TO COME INTO PLAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES. PLEASE NOTE: WE  
ARE STILL 36-48 HOURS FROM EVEN BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE OFFICIAL  
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECASTS FOR THIS IN TEXT/GRAPHICAL FORM, SO DON'T  
GET TOO HUNG UP ON DETAILS JUST YET, BUT KEEP IN MIND THE FIRST  
PART OF THE WEEKEND COULD FEATURE A QUICK RETURN/BLAST OF WINTER.  
 
4) IN THE WAKE OF THIS POSSIBLE SNOW-MAKER, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY  
HIGH IN THE CURRENTLY-ADVERTISED RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR  
SATURDAY-MONDAY.  
 
WITH THE MAIN POINTS COVERED, WILL WRAP UP WITH SOME VERY BRIEF  
DAY-TO-DAY COMMENTS...  
 
WEDNESDAY-WED NIGHT:  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND THE  
WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE  
MID 70S, AND POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH 80 FAR SOUTHWEST. BREEZY FROM  
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.  
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS (MAYBE STRONG?) ON WED  
NIGHT.  
 
THURS-THURS NIGHT:  
A COLD FRONTS STARTS MOVING THROUGH, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR  
RAIN/SOME STORMS. COOLER THAN WED, BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS  
RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTH.  
 
FRI-SATURDAY:  
CLEARLY THE COLDEST 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST (AND WE MAY NOT BE COLD  
ENOUGH YET), WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S RANGE IN MOST  
AREAS. PER ABOVE, WILL NEED TO WATCH MAINLY FRI AFTERNOON-NIGHT  
FOR A CHANCE OF AT LEAST LIGHT/WIND-BLOWN ACCUMULATING SNOW.  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY:  
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW, WITH GRADUALLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.  
HIGHS AIMED INTO THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S SUNDAY, AND MORE SO 50S TO  
PERHAPS LOW 60S MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS LAV AND GLAMP POINT TOWARD  
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY  
WILL NOT BE VERY FAR AWAY, SO NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WITH THIS  
FORECAST. WE HAVE IFR CEILINGS AS CLOSE AS ODX, AND IT'S ALMOST  
LIFR. LIFR VISIBILITY IS AS CLOSE AS TIF. BUT, SHORT-TERM  
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS CONSISTENTLY KEEP THESE LOWER  
CATEGORIES NORTH AND WEST. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS AFTER ROUGHLY 14Z OR 15Z TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH  
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH  
AVIATION...HEINLEIN  
 
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