382
FXUS63 KGID 031128
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
100-104 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY RISK AREA IS
NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO GRAND ISLAND
TO GENEVA, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN
IS 5PM TO 1AM.
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY, BUT
THE OVERALL RISK IS LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOOKS TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE IN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR-TERM HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY. IN-FACT THE 06Z DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
WAS NEARLY COMPLETELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2
FORECAST. THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINY ON
EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY, (AS OF 5AM) CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE NEAR/WEST
OF A LINE FROM MCK TO LXN. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
DECAYING UPDRAFTS.
THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS). SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IN
A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (MLCAPE POSSIBLY OVER 4000 J/KG).
INITIALLY, THIS WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS, EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO
ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. AN SECOND LINE
OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND AN INCREASING LLJ. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
(ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS). THE TORNADO THREAT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING GIVEN THE "MESSY"
STORM MODE, BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THANKS TO
SEMI-FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WILL INTO THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD GENERALLY LOSE STRENGTH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY (JULY 4TH). THROUGH ALL OF THIS, THE MAIN THREAT AREA
IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA, AND SOME PARTS OF KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY MISS OUT ENTIRELY.
THE FORECAST FOR JULY 4TH REMAINS A LITTLE MORE MURKY AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TODAY. CAMS SUGGEST THAT
THE INITIAL AREA OF DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS NEAR I-70 SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST DOES LOOK A BIT QUIETER. SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. BETTER CHANCES
(30-50%) FOR RAIN AND T-STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
ALSO INCLUDES THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW/MID 70S. THE
SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND MAY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE 12Z HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING
(AROUND 10 OR 11 PM). THE 12Z NAM12 IS SHOWING STORMS STAYING AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
12Z NAMNST IS SHOWING STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 7 OR 8
PM AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THE 12Z GFS IS
SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY/AROUND 7 PM AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
BY 10 PM. CAPE VALUES BY THIS EVENING WILL BE AROUND 3,500 TO 5,000+
J/KG, AND 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 8 DEGREES C/KM.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN, AND IF, STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. IF THEY DO, THEY COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONDITIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS IN EITHER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OR A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP A LITTLE FROM THOSE
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
WHOLE FORECAST AREA IS IN EITHER A MARGINAL, SLIGHT, OR ENHANCED
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY EVENING, CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4,000 TO 5,000+ ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS, AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8.5 DEGREES C/KM ARE EXPECTED. A
SHORTWAVE (OR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES) IS/ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER/NEAR
THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL UP TO AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE, WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 70 MPH, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WILL GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED
AROUND 6 PM TO 3 AM.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT (4TH OF JULY)...
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE RAIN AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY BUT ARE STILL NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT WHERE TO
PLACE THE PRECIPITATION. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (AROUND
60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING IS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. AREAS NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE LEAST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAIN AND STORMS (AROUND A 30% TO 40% CHANCE).
THE TRI-CITIES AREA IS PROBABLY THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
(AROUND A 40% TO 60% CHANCE). A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS ON FRIDAY. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN
AND STORMS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN FAIRLY
HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, AND LAPSE RATES, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST RISK WOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE ON A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (15% TO AROUND 20%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THESE STORMS IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY IN THE EAR VICINITY, AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND RELATIVELY WEAK T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON (MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT GRI THAN EAR), WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT EXACT TIMING IS
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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