956  
FXUS63 KGID 061115  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
615 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2022  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2022  
 
A VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS HAD FOR MANY AREAS LAST NIGHT INTO  
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS DID MISS OUT, AND A FEW SPOTS  
(MAINLY WEBSTER/FRANKLIN COUNTY AREA) ENDED UP WITH MORE THAN THEY  
NEEDED, BUT THAT IS JUST THE NATURE OF SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.  
THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING (9-10AM) TODAY.  
 
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH NEBRASKA, SO MOST OF THE AREA  
WILL SEE A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. UNFORTUNATELY, IT LOOKS LIKE  
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN NORTHERN KANSAS, SO PORTIONS OF THIS AREA  
WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH HEAT/HUMIDITY (ALTHOUGH PROBABLY  
NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY). HIGHS IN KS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK OUT AT 100  
TO 105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 105 DEGREES, SO THE  
ADVISORY IS ADMITTEDLY A LITTLE “WEAK,” BUT HEAT IMPACTS ARE  
STILL EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT IT IS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE  
DAY.  
 
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z  
HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL SEE  
INITIAL STORM INITIATION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT OVER NORTHERN  
KANSAS. THEN COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE EVENING  
DUE TO INTERACTION FROM THE LLJ AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. BECAUSE OF  
THIS, SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS, BUT I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE UPDATES TO THIS LATER IN THE DAY.  
INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BEING  
SEVERE AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH  
(3000J/KG OF MLCAPE). GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND LONG  
RESIDENCE TIME OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,  
LEADING TO A COUPLE SEASONABLE (HIGHS IN THE 80S) AND MOSTLY DRY  
DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS,  
BUT BELIEVE THAT MOST WILL STAY DRY.  
 
UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND, PUSHING  
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S FOR SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO  
THE 100S FOR SOME ON SUNDAY. THIS WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY  
SHORT, THOUGH. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR  
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, DEAMPLIFYING THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY  
BRINGING US A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2022  
 
A FEW SHOWERS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MORNING, BUT ANY THUNDER IS  
UNLIKELY. SCT-BKN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AFTER THESE STORMS  
EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MANGELS  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
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