696
FXUS63 KGID 061801
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA (COUNTIES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281).
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN (AND POSSIBLY SNOW) ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
- MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH PRECIP OUTPUT AND LOCATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SEE NEWLY-ISSUED "FIRE WEATHER" DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO
BRIEFLY-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE WESTERN 1/2 OF OUR FORECAST
AREA (CWA).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TODAY TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 20 TO 25
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
OF 20% TO 25% ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY RESULT
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM DAWSON TO FURNAS COUNTY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
STILL EXPECTING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL DIFFERENT IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW MUCH SNOW (AND POSSIBLY
NONE) MAY FALL IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL GET COLDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING (AT LEAST SOMEWHERE) IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE IN 2 ROUNDS WITH THE 2ND ROUND COMING IN LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BEEN ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND WHILE NOT AS
WARM AS SUNDAY, TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS, WITH A
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS. NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE, BUT HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AT
THE SURFACE, THE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, WITH THAT UPPER WAVE HELPING
TO PUSH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...BRING A SWITCH TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT SPEEDS
HAVE TOPPED OUT GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. NO BIG SURPRISES
WITH TEMPS TODAY, WITH THE AT TIMES THICKER CLOUD COVER NOT
DOING US ANY FAVOR...TEMPS WILL END UP TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-
MID 50S EAST TO LOW-MID 60S IN THE WEST. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 30S TO RIGHT AROUND 40.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS REMAIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS WE SIT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...SPEEDS CONTINUE AROUND 10
MPH. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TUE-WED,
WHICH REMAINS DRY. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH FOCUS
WITH TIME WILL BE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND DISTURBANCES
MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND.
MAIN CONCERN ON TUESDAY LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. WINDS DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME...AS THE AREA SITS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DRIVE STRONG
WINDS, BUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GUSTS NEAR 20- 25 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ANY TIME THERE ARE WESTERLY WINDS AND SUN...THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH AND TEMPS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH, SO TRENDED THE FORECAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT CONCERN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS
ALONG/WEST OF A KEARNEY NE TO OSBORNE KS LINE. DID INSERT A
MENTION OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE
HWO...THE THE SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR WEST WITH
THE ELEVATED AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE PATTERN WEAKENS A BIT, WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING SETS UP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. THIS
HELPS KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY...AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S-LOW 60S...AND MORE WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN, THOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY BE CREEPING THEIR WAY IN FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL ANOTHER PRETTY NICE DAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD LIES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
FINALLY RETURNING, INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW. A COUPLE
OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT WILL STATE UPFRONT THERE ARE STILL
PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK...WHICH COULD RESULT IN OUR AREA GETTING
ACCUMULATING SNOW, OR VERY LITTLE OF ANYTHING.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
AREA IS WORKING ITS WAY NEAR THE CA/AZ/MEX BORDER ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN TAKING A MORE NERLY TURN WED NIGHT-THURSDAY ONTO THE PLAINS
AS A LARGER, BROADER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. MODELS
REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS OK INTO
ESE KS...BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IT COULD SWING ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST CLIP SERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BIG
QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR NW THAT TRACK IS/PRECIP GETS...THUS
CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE, WITH A SMALL AREA OF 40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE
FAR SE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TEMP PROFILE
WOULD LARGELY KEEP THIS PRECIP AS RAIN.
NEXT QUESTION THEN LIES WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST...PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN
WITH ITS EVOLUTION. THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED BETWEEN
KEEPING THE SYSTEM MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPING A
DEEPER, CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND WOULD IT STAY SOUTH OR CROSS
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AT LEAST BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE GFS
VERSION OF THINGS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES) THIS MORNING
STUCK TO ITS STORY OF NOT BRINGING US A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIPITATION...SHOWING THE CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS SLIDING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN
FURTHER NORTH/MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUR AREA GETTING SOME
SNOW...BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS, TRENDING
THINGS A BIT TO THE SOUTH...LESSENING THE POTENTIAL. LOOKING
THAT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW...THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES DROPPED FROM ROUGHLY 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA LAST NIGHT TO CLOSER TO 30-50 PERCENT TODAY (GFS DIDN'T
CHANGE MUCH...STILL AROUND 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF AT LEAST 1
INCH).
IT'S ONLY MONDAY, SO STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS KEEP ON THIS
TRACK OR TREND ANOTHER WAY AS WE GET CLOSER...BOTTOM LINE, STAY
TUNED.
NEXT WEEKEND...
THE FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT LEAST BRIEFING
RETURNING TO THE REGION. HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS THAT FAR OUT, WHEN THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT THU-FRI. FOLLOWING HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
40S-50S AND MAINLY 30S ON FRIDAY...WEEKEND HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
30S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY-HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY (IN FACT, THERE WILL BE HARDLY ANY CLOUDS
WHATSOEVER). HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODEST WIND CONCERNS.
- WIND DETAILS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
THE OVERALL-BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AWAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 22Z, WITH WESTERLY SUSTAINED SPEEDS
COMMONLY SUSTAINED AROUND 14KT/GUSTS AROUND 20KT. THEREAFTER,
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SUNSET, WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD FEATURING FAIRLY UNIFORM CONDITIONS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES COMMONLY 5-10KT.
- MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) CONCERNS:
ANYTIME AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z TONIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BOTH KGRI/KEAR WILL BE PRONE TO
SEEING "SLIGHTLY-STRONG" LLWS MAGNITUDES...WITH ROUGHLY 25KT OF
SHEAR MAGNITUDE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT.
AGL LAYER. HOWEVER, WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONCERNING (AND TAF-WORTHY) LLWS MAGNITUDE OF
30+KT FOCUSING AT LEAST SLIGHTLY OFF TO THE NORTH, WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY LLWS GROUPS AT THIS TIME (THIS WILL BEAR MONITORING FOR
LATER TAFS, HOWEVER).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- REGARDING WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL TO BRIEFLY-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON:
WIDEPSREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(CWA), DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF OVERLAP
BETWEEN: 1) WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH...2) RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) DROPPING AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT. FOR MOST
COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS CONCERNING, GIVEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH (MAINLY BOTTOMING OUT 25-30%).
HOWEVER, OF GREATEST CONCERN ARE OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
(ESPECIALLY DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS), WHERE AT LEAST
BRIEFLY-CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD POTENTIALLY BE REACHED AT
TIMES BETWEEN 1-5 PM (THESE COUNTIES WOULD BE MOST PRONE TO
SEEING RH DROP TO AT-OR-SLIGHTLY BELOW 20%). WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SHORT-FUSE/FORMAL
WARNING, BUT FOR NOW HAVE TRIED TO AWARENESS OF THIS "CRITICAL
CRITERIA CLOSE CALL" BY ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPSGID).
-- NOTE:
NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 20-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS OF
20+ MPH/25+ MPH (FOR 3+ HOUR DURATION).
NWS HASTINGS ROUTINELY DEFINES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AS THE
OVERLAP OF BOTH 25-PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS
15+MPH/20+ MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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