518
FXUS63 KGID 220902
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
302 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMUP CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ONLY A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WINDY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- AFTER OUR WARM STRETCH, WINTER IS EXPECTED TO "RETURN" THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 3RD-9TH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
IF NOT FOR THE STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WE'D
PROBABLY HAVE ANOTHER MORNING WITH A SUBZERO TEMPERATURES. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, SHOULD ALLOW THE ENTIRE AREA TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD EVEN MAKE A
RUN INTO THE UPPER 40S!
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S, AND SOME 60S COULD CREEP
INTO OUR WEST/SOUTH ON MONDAY.
AS SNOW BEGINS TO MELT, THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
RESULT IN FOGGY MORNINGS, BUT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE
THIS LESS FAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS FAVOR THAT MOST OF THE SNOWPACK
WILL HAVE MELTED AWAY, AND WE SHOULD SEE A PUSH OF EVEN WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE. AS SUCH, TUESDAY IS STILL
FAVORED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES
IS A NEAR CERTAINTY (95% CHANCE) NEAR/WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
CHANCES DECREASE AS YOU MOVE EASTWARD, BUT ACCORDING TO THE 01Z
NBM, THERE IS STILL A 60-70% CHANCE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR.
WITH THE PERSISTENT WARMTH, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S, SOME RIVER ICE MAY START TO BREAK UP NEXT
WEEK. WITH THIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING WILL ALSO
INCREASE. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR WATER
LEVELS CLOSELY. FORTUNATELY, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO EXACERBATE THE ISSUE.
AND SPEAKING OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT, ALL 3
OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) SHOW A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.10" OF RAIN. THAT SAID, THIS
PROBABILITY IS STILL PRETTY LOW AT ONLY 5 TO 15% (HIGHEST EAST).
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE NBM AND EPS ENSEMBLE BOTH BACKED
OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY, BUT GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE STILL
ARE LIKELY. IF WE REMAIN DRY AND THE SNOW MELTS AWAY
SUFFICIENTLY, THIS WOULD BE A DAY TO MONITOR FROM A FIRE-WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE.
AFTER A "COOLER" DAY (HIGHS IN THE 50S) ON WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE WARMTH WON'T
LAST FOREVER THOUGH. THE LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HINT
AT A COOLDOWN THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 3-9), ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FULL PERIOD WITH A
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARING TO FILL IN SATURDAY
EVENING (MAINLY AFTER 3Z). STEADY 5-15KT WINDS START OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KT POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS SHOULD RETAIN THROUGH THE RESTS OF THE DAY SATURDAY,
SWINGING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
(6-12Z) AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
JUST BRINGING SOME ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE MOVEMENT
ON LOCAL RIVERS ABOUT ONE WEEK FROM NOW. IT IS VERY HARD TO
PREDICT WHEN ICE WILL BREAK/MOVE BUT USUALLY AFTER 4 OR SO DAYS
50+ DEGREE HIGHS AND LOWS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING, ICE TENDS TO
START MOVING. ADD IN SOME STRONGER WINDS MID/LATE NEXT WEEK TO
ADD TO THE MECHANICAL TYPE FORCE IMPACTING THE ICE, AND IT JUST
SEEMS LIKE THE WE SHOULD BE READY. THANKFULLY, PRECIPITATION IS
LIMITED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PLATTE AND
LOUP BASINS CLOSELY LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MINOR ISSUES ON
OTHER RIVERS/STREAMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...STUMP
HYDROLOGY...MORITZ
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