883
FXUS63 KGID 190557
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRONG WINDS (WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH)
WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL DAY MONDAY (HIGHS 20S/30S),
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY-THURSDAY (UPPER
30S TO NEAR 50).
- ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND
LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE (10-30%)
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (SOME MIXED WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW) HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS 50+ MPH OBSERVED. EXPECT THE
RESPONSIBLE DISTURBANCE TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AND A COOL START
TO THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THESE COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD THEN SHIFT EAST AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY...HELPING TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 30S (EAST) TO UPPER 40S (WEST) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS OUR EXTREME WEST (MAINLY WEST OF
HWY 183), BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY LIKE A MORE
WIDESPREAD OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOCALLY. THIS WILL ALSO
MARK THE START OF A RETURN TO MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND A MORE MILD AIRMASS REMAINS NEAR
THE SURFACE.
LATE IN THE WEEK, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF BOTH THE EC/GFS NOW TAKE
THE NEXT WEST COAST TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY, WHERE
IT EITHER CUTS OFF OR IS SLOW TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO
CHANGE, THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN LESS MOISTURE REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST COMES IN FROM THE NORTH.
THAT SAID, NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO INDICATE THERE IS LIGHT
SNOW POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH TOTALS HAVE NOT
SURPRISINGLY TRENDED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY. WHAT HAS NOT
CHANGED, HOWEVER, IS THE EXPECTED COLD FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY IN
THE TEENS/LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS RANGING BETWEEN 3,000-6,000FT TONIGHT
SHOULD BE BROKEN UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE CEILINGS FROM DROPPING
AS LOW. MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD WILL KEEP BASES BROKEN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER,
WILL LIKELY RETAIN THROUGH THE FULL PERIOD (80% CONFIDENCE).
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN/IMPACT TONIGHT HAS BEEN THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PRESENTLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40KTS AT KGRI AND
AS HIGH AS 35KT AT KEAR. THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD SOON DROP OFF
FOR THE NIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KTS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS MONDAY. SHORTLY
FOLLOWING SUNRISE, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS MAINLY STAYING BETWEEN 8-15KTS DURING THE
DAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING (<8KTS).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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