496
FXUS63 KGID 061120
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
520 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE 40S (NORTHEAST) TO 50S
(SOUTHWEST) TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WARMEST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHERE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR/DISSIPATE TODAY CONFINING NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE 40S. FURTHER SOUTH/WEST HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTING 20-30MPH, BUT WINDS STEADILY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S
UNDER PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, STRONGEST ACROSS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S, BUT
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SNEAK INTO THE 60S.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY, WITH 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP NEXT WEEK, AND
BRINGS MULTIPLE LOW PROBABILITY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
A PLEASANTLY WARM AND BREEZY WINTER DAY IS AMONG US TODAY AS HIGHS
PRANCE INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON (15-25 DEGREES WARMER
FROM YESTERDAY). BEYOND A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS, SKIES REMAIN OPEN.
WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY BETWEEN 15-20MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY GUST AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL LIGHTEN SOME, WITH WIND
DIRECTIONS TURNING TOWARDS THE WEST.
ALOFT, A RIDGING PATTERN ESTABLISHING OUT WEST WILL LEAVE THE AREA
UNDERNEATH FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRAZE INTO OUR NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
MASS OF ARCTIC AIR DROPS DOWN AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS
WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES HERE LOCALLY INTO THE MID 40S TO 50S
FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHT TO STEADY SURFACE WINDS BENDING BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST.
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL BECOME A LITTLE BRISK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
15-20MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-35MPH. HIGHS ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST
TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S, HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE A
TOTAL SURPRISE FOR US TO SEE OVERACHIEVING HIGHS WITH THE HEALTHY
WARM AIR ADVECTING FLOW THAT AFTERNOON. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT MAY
INHIBIT THE HIGHS FROM OVERACHIEVING WILL BE FROM THE PRESENCE OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MINIMIZING THE DAY'S DIURNAL SOLAR HEATING
ABILITY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE ONCE MORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FROM A MIX OF SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING CLEARING SKIES, WARM AIR
MIXING DOWN FROM THE RIDGE AND THE PRESENCE OF WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS FROM OFF THE HIGH PLAINS (ADIABATIC WARMING). HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
PROJECTED TO REACH THE 60S WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ON MONDAY. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH LOOKS PROBABLE MONDAY (70-80%
CHANCE) AS TEMPERATURES MAY RAISE AS HIGH AS 30-35 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, THE RIDGING PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
FAVORED TO FLATTEN OUT TO A MORE ZONAL AND UNBALANCED MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. THOUGH THERE IS SOME MORE GRAYISH AREA WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE MODELS OF WHAT THE PREDOMINATE PATTERN WILL BE COMING OUT
OF THIS RIDGE, THE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST A PART
OF THE MID TO END OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN. OUR CURRENT
POPS REFLECT LINGERING 15-40% CHANCES FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MIXED SIGNALS OF IF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS EARLY AS TUE/WED (GEFS) OR CLOSER TO
THUR/FRI (ENS) WITH THE GEPS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. THOUGH THERE
STILL LIES MUCH QUESTION TO WHEN A DISTURBANCE MAY COME, THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING A "MIXED" PRECIPITATION SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY GIVEN A NOW PROJECTED COMPLEX THERMAL ENVIRONMENT. RAIN
OVERALL IS STILL THE LEADING SCENERIO GIVEN HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST
IN THE 40S FOR WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ANY OVERNIGHT
FALLING PRECIPITATION COULD TRANSITION TO SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT AROUND KGRI, BUT
IT MAY STOP JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF KGRI. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE TIME WHEN MVFR IS MOST LIKELY/POSSIBLE AT KGRI.
KEAR SHOULD BE TOO FAR WEST TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS. ANY LINGERING
STRATUS CLEARS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS OR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT KEAR WOULD BE MOST FAVORED TO SEE
IMPACTS.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTING 20-25KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS STEADILY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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