454
FXUS63 KGID 161739
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE WARM (WIDESPREAD HIGHS FROM MID 80S TO LOWER 90S)
AND DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE CHANGE TO COOLER AND MUCH MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4"+.
- SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM OUT OF THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN SCATTERED, OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASE (THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY ZERO)
FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AMIDST SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THE
MILD START TO THE DAY ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MOST AREAS SHOULD CLIMB INTO
INTO AT LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND SOME LOWER 90S WILL EVEN
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND S OF THE STATE LINE.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED POP- UP STORM CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER FAR NE/E ZONES PER RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE. BY FAR THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS, HOWEVER, WILL BE OFF
TO OUR W/NW THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS REGION AS CAMS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS IS WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS FORECAST TO
GROW UPSCALE TO A LARGER COMPLEX BY SUNSET THANKS TO SOMEWHAT
MODEST SHEAR THAT ALSO EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL COMPONENT. THE SPEED/TIMING IN WHICH THIS ACTIVITY
GROWS UPSCALE AND SHIFTS E WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DETERMINING
FACTOR IN OUR OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THE EARLIER IT ARRIVES -
SAY 7-10PM, THE HIGHER CHANCES THERE WILL BE FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL (QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE) AND WIND GUSTS (50-60
MPH). IF CONVECTION IS SLOWER TO EXPAND/SHIFT E, THEN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. AGREE WITH LATEST
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION AND
MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY W OF HWY 283, WITH A
GRADUALLY DECREASING RISK WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AND THINK EVEN AREAS E
OF HWY 281 SHOULD BE ABLE TO MANAGE AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW
TENTHS OF RAIN. THE HEAVIER ISOLATED 2-3" TYPE OF AMOUNTS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED/MAINLY MINOR FLOODING WILL FAVOR AREAS W/NW
OF THE TRI- CITIES EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E WED AM AS SUBSIDENCE WORKS
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE SUCH THAT MOST AREAS ONLY HAVE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISO SHOWER/STORM FROM LATE AM INTO EARLY
AFTN. HOWEVER, EXPECT ANOTHER UPTICK TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTN - PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS W THROUGH S OF THE TRI-CITIES
AS THESE AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT MORE/SOONER AND SUPPORT
SOME HIGHER INSTABILITY. WE'RE NOT FORMALLY OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME, BUT SREF CALIBRATED SEVERE
WEATHER PROBS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODESTLY ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (20-30KT W MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP LIGHT SERLY SFC
FLOW) TO OVERLAP CONDITIONALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY ARGUES THE
RISK IS NOT COMPLETELY ZERO, EITHER. WILL REALLY JUST DEPEND ON
WHEN/IF/HOW MUCH CLEARING UNFOLDS IN THE AFTERNOON HRS. AREAS
THAT REMAIN SOCKED IN THE THICKER CLOUD COVER COULD STRUGGLE TO
WARM OUT OF THE 60S, BUT THINK MOST SHOULD SEE THE 70S. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY CONVECTION ON
WED GIVEN CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.25-1.50".
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTS E
AND INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS
HIGH AS WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS ARE STILL LOW
OWING TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF EACH VORT LOBE AND CLEARING
POTENTIAL. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
WHILE SOME LOW-END POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY E
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR
DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IN FACT,
LATEST NBM CALLS FOR RETURN TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
SATURDAY, THEN WIDESPREAD 80S FOR SUNDAY. NORMAL HIGHS BEGIN A
STEEPER DECLINE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF SEPT AND WILL HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY. MAY SEE ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH AND CHANCE FOR RAIN/COOLER WEATHER ARRIVE SOMETIME
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z TO
06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z FOR KEAR
AND 09Z FOR KGRI. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES ARE FROM 16Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY FOR BOTH TERMINALS. WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS AND MAY
OCCUR AT KEAR AROUND 16Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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