327
FXUS63 KGID 072028
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH
ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (0.10" OR LESS).
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY ARE RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT BRINING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH
BASED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM TO
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE MOISTURE,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY
SOUTHWEST OF THE NEBRASKA TRI-CITIES.
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ONE MORE NOTABLE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY BRINING WITH IT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
FEW POP UP SPRINKLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON). WHILE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MAINLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE/SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY, LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE LOCAL
AREA REMAINS OUTSIDE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. THAT SAID, A
FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE NAMNEST FIRE UP A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY IMPACT LOCAL
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA, SO
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (IN THE 80S) THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL EVENTUALLY LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH WITH FUELS STARTING TO GREEN-UP, SOME OF THIS CONCERN
MAY BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ALLEVIATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
LIGHT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND INCREASING CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR 8KFT LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHRA'S OR SPRINKLES, BUT CONFINED THIS POSSIBILITY TO A
PROB30 GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ON
THE LOWER SIDE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AFT
08/12Z WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 15+
KTS...POSSIBLE BY 08/15Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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