803
FXUS63 KGID 232154
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
454 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL AND SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
- THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE
PRETTY MARGINAL.
- RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BROADLY SPEAKING, MAY SEE ANOTHER UPTICK IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS AN
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY, INSTABILITY WAS LACKING WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND KEPT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT BAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S. THIS CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS TO POP UP THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT
LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO FEATURE THE SAME GENERAL MID TO UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN WHICH AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SW AND W
COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ZONAL TO NW FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODEST AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL THEN ROLL E/SE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MEAN FLOW AND ALONG A STOUT INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
APPEARS THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY W/SW/S
OF THE AREA EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR
SEVERE THREAT FAIRLY LIMITED. APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE WITH A
DISTURBANCE WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. IT'S LATE JUNE AND THERE'S AT
LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SO THE VARIOUS
MARGINAL RISKS ON THE SPC OUTLOOKS MAKE SENSE...BUT AGAIN, NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD FOR OUR LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.
UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK, AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING
SLIDES EAST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SO AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPS BY
FRIDAY AND ESP. OVER THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, LATEST NBM GIVES
WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO MID 90S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - WHICH
WILL FEEL QUITE STEAMY GIVEN SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE
RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM RAPIDLY GROWING CORN WILL PROBABLY
SUPPORT EVEN HIGHER VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AREAS E OF
HWY 281 TOWARDS THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. NOT SURE THIS UPTICK IN
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL NECESSARILY RISE TO ADVISORY LEVELS (HEAT
INDICES OF 105+), AND THERE WILL BE SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO
HELP BRING SOME RELIEF...BUT IT'S A SUMMER WEEKEND, SO KEEP IN
MIND FOR THOSE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE UPPER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT
(LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION) TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY FORCE AT
LEAST A WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY...WHICH COULD THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRENDS. THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME OVERLAP IN SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING MID/UPPER JET STREAK AND LARGE
RESERVOIR OF STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, SOMEWHERE IN THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NOW, DOES THIS OVERLAP OCCUR
LOCALLY OR PERHAPS FURTHER N...AND WHAT EXACTLY WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTS...THESE DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND ARE CRITICAL TO PINNING DOWN
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS THIS TIME OF YEAR. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 2-3 DAY WINDOW OF INCREASED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, BUT REMAINS QUITE BROAD IN IT'S
FOOTPRINT, AND MUTED ON ANY HIGHER END PROBABILITIES. AGAIN,
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE APPROACH THE BUSY SUMMER WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-AM WED.
REST OF TODAY: SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY EXITED THE AREA AS OF
MIDDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER REDEVELOPING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME GUSTY SE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING SHOWERS, BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY LAST ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS. CIGS ARE A BIT TRICKY AS SOME MODELS DEVELOP A FAIRLY
SOLID MVFR STRATOCU FIELD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHEREAS
OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS CLOUDS MORE IN THE 5-10K FT LAYER. THE
STRATOCU IDEA HAS SOME MERIT FROM A CONCEPTUAL STANDPOINT GIVEN
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST WINDS, SO HAVE PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
TONIGHT: THERE'S CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUD COVER
AND VISIBILITY PROGS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED AM. ON ONE
HAND FROM A CONCEPTUAL MODEL STANDPOINT...EXPECTED LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS COMBINED WITH COOL TEMPS AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST A PRETTY DECENT SETUP FOR DENSE FOG -
PERHAPS IFR TO LIFR. ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH AROUND
13-14Z WED. HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
DEVELOP MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG, SEEMINGLY BECAUSE OF
CONSIDERABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE AREA OFF
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SW KS. IF THIS IS INDEED THE CASE, MAY JUST
END UP WITH MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK THAN FOG. WOULD PUT SUB-
VFR PROBABILITIES AT >50%, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IF THIS WOULD BE
LIFR TO IFR VSBYS VS IFR TO MVFR STRATUS IS VERY LOW ATTM.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS TURNING TO THE NW BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR OUT ENOUGH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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