127
FXUS63 KGID 301124
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
624 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EACH DAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70MPH AND HALF
DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A FEW SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOUTH OF THE STORMS, SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ALOFT THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY, PUSHING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL, HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO 90S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. PLENTIFUL
CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG-
SEVERE AS THEY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OVER TIME. THESE CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70MPH.
HOW LONG STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH (HOW FAR INTO THE
EVENING/NIGHT) WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW STORMS CLUSTER AND ORGANIZE
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. STORMS COME TO AN END SOMETIME TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FAVORED BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAPE
AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG-
MARGINALLY SEVERE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ARE UNDER THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND
UPPER RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
HEATING UP INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX
VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 FOR MANY
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. THIS
AREA IS IN A HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
ALL OF THIS HEAT AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN VERY HIGH
CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON (OVER 1,000 J/KG TO OVER 5,000 J/KG). 0
TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH (25 TO 50 KNOTS). MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8+ DEGREES C/KM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS AND AN ADDITIONAL
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CONDITIONS. THE HINDERING FACTOR IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CAP TO OVERCOME ANY ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. IF
STORMS OVERCOME THE CAP, THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE 14Z HRRR SHOWS STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 2 AM.
THE 12Z NAM IS NOT REALLY SHOWING ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA (IT SHOWS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NEBRASKA). THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORM WOULD BE HAIL UP TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 50% TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES (MOSTLY BETWEEN 3,000 TO
4,000+ J/KG), WIND SHEAR UP TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8+ DEGREES C/KM. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT FROM THE DAY BEFORE. SOME MODELS DON'T SHOW
ANY STORMS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE UP TO AROUND 50% TUESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AS ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON (UP TO 20% CHANCE) AND EVENING/OVERNIGHT (UP TO NEAR 60%
CHANCE). A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THE
PARAMETERS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS SO NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD/INTENSE SEVERE WEATHER. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID/UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN
MORE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. TEMPERATURES HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO HEAT UP EVEN MORE (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80) ON
SATURDAY (4TH OF JULY) IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
DEGREE OF HEATING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD REACH 105 DEGREES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80) SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN HIGH CAPE,
WIND SHEAR, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF TAF PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING-NIGHT. FEW-SCT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, SKIES BECOME BKN-OVC AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF STORMS SO A BROAD
PROB30 WAS USED FOR GENERAL STORM TIMING. IT'S PLAUSIBLE STORMS
COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS BUT GIVEN BROADER UNCERTAINTY
OPTED AGAINST AN MVFR MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LLWS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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