536
FXUS63 KGID 212023
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES.
- RAIN ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 0.10" IN THE SOUTHEAST TO 0.5-1"
OR MORE IN THE NORTHWEST.
- HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S SUNDAY ONWARDS WITH SCATTERED, LOW
CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. POOR
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM WEAK AND NON-SEVERE. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES (60-95%) FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING HOURS, MOST LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL STEADIEST/HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
PUSHES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN DIMINISHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (HIGHWAY
81), THROUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS REDEVELOPMENT JUST EAST
OF THE AREA. OVERALL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10"
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (OSBORNE-HEBRON) TO 0.5-1"
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (CAMBRIDGE-ORD). ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 60-90% CHANCE FOR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO RECEIVE 0.5" OR MORE OF RAIN, AND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR 1" OF
RAIN. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING 20-25MPH.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY...
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE (15-25%)
FOR LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MAY LINGER JUST LONG ENOUGH TO SNEAK
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY
EVENING.
SUNDAY ONWARDS....
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RIDGING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. MODEL SPREAD QUICKLY INCREASES NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND STALLS OUT. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO THE AREA AS DISTURBANCES NAVIGATE THIS
TROUGHING AND LIFT INTO THE AREA. GIVEN MODEL SPREAD, FINER DETAILS
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING, CEILINGS
LOWER TO MVFR AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS, LOW MVFR
CEILINGS BECOME IFR AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WITHIN
THESE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS LOWER TO LIFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS
MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. AROUND SUNRISE, A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST (FIRST IMPACTING KEAR),
WITH CEILINGS INCREASING TO IFR THEN MVFR OR VFR BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND THUS HOW QUICKLY KEAR/KGRI TRANSITION
TO MVFR/VFR, THOUGH THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH, THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS
EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY JUST PAST THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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