101
FXUS63 KGID 162013
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COLD NIGHT (LOWS IN THE TEENS)...THEN WARMING UP
WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION).
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND. DRY WEATHER FORECAST
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
- A MODEST COOLDOWN POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEKEND (WITH HIGHS
FALLING INTO THE 50S & 60S), BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
AREA-WIDE.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK AND A RED FLAG
WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A CHILLY MARCH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS DESPITE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A COLD AIRMASS LINGERED BEHIND YESTERDAYS
COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS HAVE ALSO NOT HELPED OUT WIND
CHILLS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
AIRMASS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO HEBRON, WITH CURRENT RH VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS
FRONT BEING MOSTLY DRY FOR THE LOCAL AREA, WITH ONLY THE
SMALLEST CHANCES (15-25%) FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES TUESDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO JUSTIFY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
AREAS PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 EARLIER TODAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, EXPECT FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE MIDDLE/LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THANKFULLY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR
THE SURFACE APPEARS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, SO VERY STRONG WINDS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. THAT SAID, WITH DRY FUELS, LOW RH VALUES AND
WARM TEMPERATURES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK.
AFTER A 3 DAY PERIOD OF NEAR/RECORD WARMTH, EXPECT A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH TO HELP KNOCK DOWN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS (40+ MPH) NEXT SUNDAY. AT
THIS POINT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LOCALLY WITH THIS FRONT
AND ENSEMBLES LOOK FAIRLY BLEAK, PRECIPITATION WISE, THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 10.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND GOOD VSBYS
THROUGHOUT.
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...THROUGH 17/01Z. THEREAFTER,
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE SHIFTING AND BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY BY LATE MORNING, BUT REMAIN LIGHTER (GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20 KTS) THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER
SOME OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY TO AROUND 5-8KFT BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO
HEBRON, NEBRASKA...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS (UP
TO 35 MPH) AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT).
THERE WILL BE A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, BUT WESTERN
AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS REACH THE 70S AND HUMIDITY DIP BELOW 20
PERCENT. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY WIND
COULD RESULT IN NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281,
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DAWSON AND
GOSPER COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM. WINDS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY STRONG FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT WITH NEAR
RECORD WARMTH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S LATER THIS WEEK, A FEW RECORD
WARM TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN JEOPARDY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THURSDAY MARCH 19 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 79 84 (1921)
GRAND ISLAND 80 86 (1921)
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 84 82 (1939)
GRAND ISLAND 84 84 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST HIGH RECORD MAX/YEAR
HASTINGS 84 87 (1910)
GRAND ISLAND 82 83 (1988)
IN ADDITION, RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FRIDAY MARCH 20 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 48 46 (2011)
GRAND ISLAND 47 50 (1921)
SATURDAY MARCH 21 FORECAST LOW RECORD WARM MIN/YEAR
HASTINGS 49 47 (2012)
GRAND ISLAND 48 54 (1911)
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR HASTINGS DATE BACK TO 1907 AND THEY
DATE BACK TO 1895 FOR GRAND ISLAND.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-061-073-074-082>084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ060-072.
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
FIRE WEATHER...ROSSI
CLIMATE...ROSSI
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