189
FXUS63 KGID 112102
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
402 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BEEN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT GUSTY
WINDS (THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SAT). MONDAY BRINGS POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHS IN THE 80S-LOW 90S. SOME
UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH HIGHS DUE TO A SFC BOUNDARY WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
- SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH INTO TUESDAY...AGAIN
MAKING A BIT OF HEADACHE FOR THE TEMP FORECAST...CURRENTLY
HAVE MID 60S IN THE FAR NNW TO MID-UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SE.
WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP IS OF INTEREST...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AS WE GET INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER ROUGHLY
SERN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG-
SEVERE.
- BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WORK THEIR WAY IN WEDNESDAY, MORE SO FOR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS AN END TO THOSE BRUTAL
HIGHS...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE 60S.
- FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE OVERALL COOLEST DAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-NEAR 60. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS OUT AND NEED TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND...WILL BE WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRI NIGHT-SAT MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
CURRENTLY...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...DRY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING
ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL RIDING EXTENDING NORTH
FROM THE EASTERN SRN PLAINS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SET UP BETWEEN ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST, AND TROUGHING SET UP ALONG THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, LOWER PRESSURE SITS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CO...WITH A TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH SW-NORTH CENTRAL NE INTO EASTERN SD. THIS SFC BOUNDARY
BEING IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IS
HELPING KEEP WINDS FROM BEING AS STRONG/WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS ON
SATURDAY. SEEING QUITE A RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
ODX/LXN ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO AT TIMES CALM SIDE, VS GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH ACROSS FAR SSE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAD MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...BUT
THAT HAS DIMINISHED/PUSHED EAST WITH TIME...LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HASN'T BEEN ANY
BIG SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...IF ANYTHING, THOSE
FAR NNW LOCATIONS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT, WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (SSE AREAS).
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THIS MORE IMMEDIATE, SHORT-TERM PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...MOST THE FAR MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A DRY PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
NOT SHOWING ANY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST...WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SOUTHERN NV. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGING INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE
MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA BEING THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS
MORE OF PUSH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT/WHERE IT ENDS UP BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY REALLY THROW A WRENCH IN THE WIND/HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE WARMER
SIDE...WITH INCREASING MIXING INTO WARMER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ALLOWING MORE MORE AREAS TO POTENTIALLY REACH INTO THE
LOW 90S (MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA).
EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AROUND...AND UNTIL THAT
BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER IN...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT
AHEAD OF IT. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR/BELOW 30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY PRECIPTIATION THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME, IT LOOKS TO COME MID-EVENING MONDAY INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY...CONFINED TO FAR ESE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF INCREASED
WARM-AIR ADVECTION/LIFT...BECAUSE THERE ISN'T A TON OF SUPPORT
FROM OTHER MODELS, KEPT CHANCES CONFINED TO 20 PERCENT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FINALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
REGION AS WE GET INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING...AND OVERALL COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH
THE DESERT SW/ROCKIES...WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS GRADUAL SOUTHWARD PUSH. BIG QUESTION
FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY WHERE THAT SURFACE FRONT ENDS UP...AS IT LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE STILL ON THE BROAD SIDE INTO THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY BECAUSE OF SOME OF THOSE LINGERING QUESTIONS WITH
LOCATION...THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF 60+ PERCENT REMAIN ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE...AND
THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA CONTINUES TO CLIP OUR SERN
CORNER.
WHILE FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN AREA-WIDE, LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS A BIT OF A LULL
IN CHANCES...BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. THESE INCREASED CHANCES ARE DRIVEN BY THE PASSAGE OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW ITSELF...CROSSING RIGHT OVER THE AREA AT SOME
POINT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. JUST HOW QUICKLY THAT OCCURS
AND PRECIP ENDS REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...GFS REMAINS ON THE
QUICKER SIDE VS THE ECMWF. NOT TALKING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE...MORE ON THE SCALE OF 6HRS OR SO...BOTH HAVE QPF
GONE BY 06Z FRIDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE MOST NOTABLE THING HERE IS THE
END TO THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH (WE'RE
SITTING 20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT JUST TODAY!)...FORECAST IS
MUCH CLOSER TO THAT BY THE TIME WED-THU ROLLS AROUND. TUESDAY IS
ANOTHER LOW- CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH...QUITE A RANGE FORECAST ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH MID 60S IN THE FAR NNW TO MID-UPPER 80S IN THE
FAR SE.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
FORECAST DRIES BACK OUT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WHETHER WE
SEE SOME BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORK ITS WAY BACK IN OR
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS AT LEAST IN THE AREA. THE COOLER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY ARE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL SEE HOW MODELS
TREND IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR OUR FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LIGHT WINDS...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID-30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH EXPECTED. SPEEDS
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...HOW MUCH SO IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS DIFFER WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SINKS. CURRENTLY KEPT WINDS SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT, BUT IF THAT FRONT PUSHES MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, WINDS
MAY BE MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE. KEPT SOME VERY MARGINAL LLWS IN FOR
BOTH SITES FROM 04-08Z...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO
QUESTION WITH THE LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARIES, FURTHER SOUTH WOULD
PUSH THE BETTER LLWS POTENTIAL SOUTH AS WELL. CLOSER TO SUNRISE
AND ON THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD, WINDS WILL TURN MORE WSW,
AS ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. ANY CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE 10K
FT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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