864
FXUS63 KGID 060026
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
726 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE SEASONABLY MILD/PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH AREAS
OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EACH DAY AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS, AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- PATTERN TRENDS SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER REMAINS, ESP.
FOR AREAS S OF I-80. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL
FOR EARLY AUGUST - THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY - IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS AREN'T NEARLY AS BREEZY AS
YESTERDAY, EITHER. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THE DECREASING TREND AND
ALLOW FOR A LATE DAY RUN INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHICH
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS, SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY
PLEASANT LATE-SUMMER EVENING.
THE CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY RIGHT AROUND DAWN. FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT MODELS ARE HITTING AREAS
ALONG/S OF PLATTE RIVER DOWN TO AROUND THE KS/NE STATE LINE THE
HARDEST. GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS DO
SUPPORT AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES, SO A
HEADLINE MAY BE WARRANTED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, HAVE HIT THE FOG A BIT HARDER IN THE GRIDS
AND CONTINUED MENTION IN THE MOST RECENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK (HWO). ANY FOG SHOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND FAIRLY QUICK
TO MIX OUT BETWEEN 8-10AM THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A DOME OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW BUILDS/EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE THE PRIMARY BAND OF
WESTERLIES TO RETREAT WELL N OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER 90S TO
LOWER 100S OVER THE WEEKEND, WARMEST IN OUR FAR SW ZONES. SO NO
REASON WHY DEW POINTS WOULDN'T RETURN BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S, AND WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME MID TO UPPER 70S IN
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS ALONG/E OF HWY 281. HEAT INDICES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, THOUGH ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
105F. WITH THAT SAID, ANY SIGNIFICANT UPWARD TREND IN FORECAST
PEAK HEAT INDICES COULD WARRANT ONE WHEN CONSIDERING THE HEAT
WILL BE AROUND FOR 3-4 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT'S EARLY
AUGUST AND WE'RE WELL ACCLIMATED TO HEAT & HUMIDITY AT THIS
POINT, SO WOULD WANT TO SEE PEAK FORECAST VALUES MORE THAN JUST
105-106F. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SRLY BREEZES TO HELP OUT TOO.
FORECAST APPEARS PRETTY QUIET IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS ALWAYS IN THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR SOME "SNEAKY" WEAK WAVES ROUNDING THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE NEARBY OR JUST TO THE N...BUT THESE WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AREAS MAINLY N OF I-80.
THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AMONGST ENSEMBLES (AND EVEN SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS) TO FEEL
PRETTY CONFIDENT ABOUT A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVING FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE MOST RECENT
50-MEMBER 12Z EPS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF POSITIVE 5-DAY
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE 12-17TH
TIME FRAME. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND REORIENT
MORE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES FROM WEAK WAVES WITHIN
INCREASINGLY FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND/OR FROM CONVECTION
WORKING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. EITHER WAY, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO WORK IN FROM THE SW AND AID IN PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
BY FAR THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEVERAL
HOURS OF VERY LOW CEILING AND LOW VISIBILITY IN FOG LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH PRIOR TO AND BEYOND THIS, THE
FIRST SEVERAL AND FINAL SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD CARRY FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY, ALTHOUGH A LOW-VFR
CEILING IS POSSIBLE (OR EVEN ONGOING) RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL BE A MINIMAL ISSUE, WITH SPEEDS
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY AT-OR- BELOW 5KT,
BEFORE A MODEST INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
COMMENCES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL ALSO BE A
PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD (UNLESS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE HAPPENS TO
ACCOMPANY LOW CEILINGS/FOG).
- CEILING/VISIBILITY DETAILS AND UNCERTAINTIES:
RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE THIS EVENING, KGRI/KEAR RESIDE BARELY
NORTH OF AN AREA OF HIGH-END MVFR CEILING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH THAT BOTH SITES WILL HANG ONTO NO WORSE THAN LOW-END
VFR CEILING THROUGH AT LEAST 06-07Z. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT "ALL
BETS ARE OFF", AS THERE IS VERY HIGH/INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
VERY LOW CEILING, AND AT LEAST MODERATELY-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ACCOMPANYING FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. WHILE THE "EXACT"
TIMING OF DETERIORATION BELOW VFR IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION,
HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING LIFR CEILING/IFR VISIBILITY 11-15Z,
WITH TEMPO 11-14Z FOR BOTH LIFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM. TRULY DENSE FOG IN VLIFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR TAFS. WHILE
THE WORST OF CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY) SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 15Z, THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY CEILING
LIFTS/SCATTERS OUT TO VFR. AT THIS TIME, SOME OF THE MOST
OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS
16Z...WHILE SOME OF THE MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO AT
LEAST MVFR UNTIL AT LEAST 19Z. FOR NOW, HAVE AIMED TAFS TOWARD A
"MIDDLE GROUND" OF 17Z RETURN TO VFR, BUT MAINTAINING A SCT020
GROUP TO "HINT" THAT AT LEAST SOME SUB-VFR CLOUDS COULD HANG
AROUND WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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