438
FXUS63 KGID 150527
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS EVENING STARTS OUT WITH A MIX OF DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA) AND AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE (MAINLY SOUTH HALF OF
OUR AREA).
- STARTING MAINLY AFTER 10 PM, MORE WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STEADILY SPREAD SW TO NE THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH
FAIRLY CONSTANT RAIN (OR AT LEAST DRIZZLE WHEN IT'S NOT
ACTIVELY RAINING) LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.40-0.80" ARE LIKELY NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE AREA, WITH MUCH MORE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO ~
1.50" POSSIBLE HERE OR THERE.
- THE COOLEST AIR OF THE FALL, THUS FAR, ALONG WITH THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME-FRAME, WITH SOME SCATTERED
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INCREASINGLY LIKELY - ESPECIALLY
IN OUR TYPICALLY COOLEST SPOTS (SUCH AS ORD).
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM 60S INTO THE
70S EXPECTED WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF GORGEOUS FALL
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- OUR NEXT (AND STILL VERY "IFFY") CHANCE FOR RAIN DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ON THE INCREASE FROM S TO N TODAY. MOST AREAS WON'T SEE
SUNSHINE AGAIN UNTIL FRIDAY AM. THE INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN TODAY
IS SCATTERED, BUT THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER CORES WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. LATEST GUIDANCE LIFTS THIS ACTIVITY S TO
N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING
WITH NORTHERN EXTENT/TIME.
A MUCH LARGER, AND MORE PERSISTENT, SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN (AND AGAIN, A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) WILL SPREAD
SW TO NE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TONIGHT, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS BOTH THE LATEST HREF
AND EPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AROUND
0.25" TO 0.75". VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE OF THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW/S TO NE/N THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DONE WITH RAIN BY AROUND
SUNSET THURSDAY, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
LINGER ALONG THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR A COUPLE HOURS LONGER. NORTH
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON THURSDAY AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST - SO EVEN
WHEN IT'S NOT RAINING, ITS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY AND RAW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S, BUT IT COULD FEEL
LIKE MID TO UPPER 40S AT TIMES WITH THE BREEZE. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING FROST DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ALL NIGHT.
STRONGEST HIGH PRESSURE OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR WILL OOZE
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL ONLY IN
THE 50S. THE COOL DAYTIME, IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLEAR SKIES,
WEAK WINDS ALONG SFC RIDGE AXIS, AND RECENT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD (PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/THICK) FROST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN OVER THE FAR W/NW, BUT DAMAGE MAY ALREADY
BE DONE IN THESE AREAS BY THEN. FORECAST HAS BEEN COOLING
SLIGHTLY WITH EACH AND EVERY CYCLE, AND NOW ALL BUT FAR SE ZONES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO, OR JUST BELOW, FREEZING SAT AM. AS
SUCH, WILL LIKELY BY ISSUING FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS FOR THIS THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DRY
AUTUMN AIRMASS...AND EXPECT FURTHER MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH OUR
KS ZONES POSSIBLY EVEN TOUCHING THE LOW 80S LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MAY HAVE ANOTHER PERIOD OF PATCHY FROST TO CONTEND WITH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD/THICK FROST...AND LOWS ONLY WARM FURTHER
FROM THERE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO THOSE LOOKING TO EXTEND THE
GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK,
PROVIDED PROTECTIVE MEASURES ARE TAKEN FRI NIGHT-SAT AM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS AS CONTINUED -SHRAS AND
SOME LIGHT BR ARE OBSERVED AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE NE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 30KT
BY 15/18Z...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH AROUND
15/23Z...WHEN MODEL SHOW A SHARP CUT OFF IN CLOUD COVER BEHIND
THE APPROACHING FRONT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TOMORROW EVENING, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUING OVER 20KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30KTS+. CONSIDERED SOME MARGINAL LLWS
OVERNIGHT (AFT 16/04Z), BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE AS LLWS FOR THE TIME BEING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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