230
FXUS63 KGID 042350
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE (20-50%) FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND ISLAND.
- OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WOULD BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.
- BRIEF SHOT OF COLD FOR SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
LINGERING CLOUD COVER KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE
TODAY, ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 40S AS SKIES
CLEAR. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 20
DEGREES...PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
DECEMBER.
ON FRIDAY, THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST. MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT TEMPERATURES STILL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW)
TO PARTS OF THE AREA. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE TO OUR EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, MOST OF THE SNOW WOULD BE FALLING DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...NOT A GREAT RECIPE FOR
MEANINGFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS SUCH, THE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+
HAS DECREASED TO ONLY 10-15% IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND
ISLAND. A LIGHT DUSTING IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS
POINT, AND MANY AREAS WILL MISS OUT ENTIRELY.
COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE,
RESULTING IN NOTICABLY COOLER DAY FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
FORTUNATELY (OR UNFORTUNATELY IF YOU ARE A WINTER-LOVER), THIS
COOLDOWN WON'T LAST LONG. THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL FAVOR A
WARMUP FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY FAVOR TUESDAY TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY (UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR MOST). ADDITIONAL
NORTHWESTERLY-FLOW SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
ARE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IS QUITE LOW. THIS COULD BRING RAIN/SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA,
BUT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL LOOKS PRETTY UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE, A THIN STRIP OF MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS FROM
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS NORTHWARD TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
WHILE OTHERS, SUCH AS THE NAM, SUGGEST IT WILL START TO INCREASE
IN AREA AFTER DARK AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS. GIVEN
THE FACT IT APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING JUST A BIT OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES, LEANED TOWARDS IT CONTINUING TO EXPAND, WITH PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS BY 05/02Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 05/15Z. THAT
SAID, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, AND COULD END UP WITH
JUST A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR STRATUS CLEARING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
ONCE THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR, EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER
AROUND 12KFT TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
EVENTUALLY EASING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 05/05Z...AND FINALLY
SHIFTING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A PASSING SURFACE
TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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