691
FXUS63 KGID 212338
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
538 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
- DANGEROUS COLD ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS BELOW -25 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN
TIMEFRAME IS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND
HIGHEST TOTALS ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF THE KS/NE STATE LINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS BRIEFLY RECORDED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH, BUT WINDS ARE
ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD TREND, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. COLDER AIR THEN ARRIVES AS A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED (50 TO 100% CHANCE) TO DIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF
NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN NORTHERN KANSAS. STEADY POST-FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS TO THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE BEST
CHANCE TO REACH EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA (-30 DEGREE WIND
CHILL) WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AIR
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND WIND CHILLS COULD EASILY STAY IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD, THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT NORTHWARD
TREND WITH SNOW POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE 13Z NBM HIGHLIGHTS A 70-90% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1.0"...WHICH IS A NOTABLE INCREASE FROM THE 07Z RUN
(40-70%). PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS ARE MORE FAVORED TO SEE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL TOTALS, AND THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS TO EXCEED 3" OF SNOW. THAT SAID, THIS
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT UPON SNOW RATIOS. THE COLD AIR WILL FAVOR
A DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW (SNOW RATIOS 15-20:1).
LIGHT SNOW BECOMES POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN KS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, SUNDAY TRENDS A BIT WARMER (HIGHS IN
THE LOW TEENS), BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL FAVORED TO DROP
BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH ANY SNOWCOVER COULD DELAY THE WARMUP A BIT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS.
EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS AROUND 22/18Z. AS WINDS FALL OFF
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT THEM TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EVENTUALLY
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TO AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT AROUND 22/18Z AND BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT, CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 8 KFT AND NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE END
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...ROSSI
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