925  
FXUS63 KGID 211812  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
112 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING,  
WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MT/WY  
REGION. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES PUSHING THROUGH FAR  
NORTHERN NE, DRIVEN LARGELY BY A 50-ISH KT LLJ, BUT THIS ACTIVITY  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE, GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING  
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN NE/FAR NW  
KS. EVEN AT THIS HOUR OBS ARE STILL SHOWING GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.  
SATELLITE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE IN SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA...THE  
WEST SITS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, COMPARED TO THE EAST WHICH IS  
BEING AFFECTED BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL  
STRATUS.  
 
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,  
PRIMARILY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST WITH TIME INTO THE  
DAKOTAS...LEAVING THE CWA ON THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE BETTER  
FORCING ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PUSHING THE ACCOMPANYING SFC  
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY  
NOTABLE CHANGES WITH THE TIMING. BY 18Z MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SW-  
NE ORIENTATED FRONT ROUGHLY HALF WAY THROUGH THE CWA, WITH THE BIG  
QUESTION BEING HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH DOES IT PUSH THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LATE  
DAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND MOST MODELS SUPPORT IT STILL AT  
LEAST CLIPPING THE FAR SERN CORNER BY THE TIME THINGS GET GOING.  
AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO HOLD OFF UNTIL  
AFTER 21Z AND AT LEAST INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF A HEBRON  
NE TO STOCKTON KS LINE. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS  
THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE  
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR  
VALUES OF AT LEAST 40KTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
 
AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT,  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACTUALLY SPREAD FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MORE  
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY STARTS  
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH, AND WE HAVE INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG  
THE NOSE OF A SSWRLY LLJ. THERE IS SOME DECENT SPREAD BETWEEN  
MODELS WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH CHANCES SPREAD....AT THIS POINT DO  
HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES ALL THE WAY NORTH, BUT THE BEST  
CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. THE  
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME OVERNIGHT, AS  
INSTABILITY WANES AND FOCUSES FURTHER SOUTH...BUT SOME STRONG  
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH  
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF  
ACTIVITY ENDING/PUSHING EAST...BUT THINKING IS THAT THINGS WILL BE  
END BY 18Z, WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DRY.  
 
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, OVERALL DIDN'T MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES  
TO HIGHS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS FOR TODAY REMAIN A LITTLE  
TRICKY, AS IS THE CASE ANYTIME THERE IS A DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
THINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT MIX OUT MORE AND WARM UP, AND HOW  
QUICKLY DO THINGS COOL NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS  
HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80 IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA...WITH MID 80S  
IN THE SSE. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP  
COMES TO AN END AND SKY COVER DIMINISHES....FORECAST CALLS FOR MID  
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. SET UP BETWEEN THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW, THIS RIDGING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A  
REBOUND IN HIGHS FOR MONDAY BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, OVERALL MUCH OF IT IS LOOKING TO BE  
DRY, POTENTIALLY CHANGING AROUND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT  
THIS PERIOD IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,  
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS 20-40% POPS, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT ISN'T  
GREAT...WITH DECENT SUPPORT IN THE 00Z RUN OF VERY LITTLE  
HAPPENING. FAIRLY QUIET WED, AND PROBABLY THURS (DEPENDS ON THE  
MODEL), BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY TAKES AIM  
ON THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON  
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S, WITH MID 70S-  
LOWER 80S FOR THE MOST PART WED-FRI.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
WE WILL SEE A SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 2500  
AND 3500 FT AGL THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN VFR CEILINGS  
ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. A COOL FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS  
THE REGION AND THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY  
WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO KEAR AND KGRI AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THESE SITES.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADP  
LONG TERM...ADP  
AVIATION...WESELY  
 
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