258
FXUS63 KGID 121941
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
241 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO KEARNEY TO PLAINVILLE.
- SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO NORTH DAKOTA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL
IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ELEVATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY
WARM UP INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS WARMUP. THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE TYPICALLY OCCURS AND LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% TO 20%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. THERE IS POTENTIAL (ABOUT 20%) OF SOME
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE
TO FAIRLY HIGH CAPE, WIND SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND UPPER LIFT BEING
PRESENT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH) ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE (AND LIKELY MORE THAN 1) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WIND SHEAR, CAPE, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC
DAY 5 AND 6 OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND 90S. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 70S. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING/SPEED OF THE
FRONT. GENERALLY EXPECT THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING TO AROUND
5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY
15Z WEDNESDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN SOME (5 TO 10 KNOTS).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EVEN WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH AT
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30+ MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 15% TO 25% ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AREAWIDE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 WHERE
SUFFICIENT GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15% TO AROUND 20% AREAWIDE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 TO 35 MPH ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ORD TO KEARNEY TO
PLAINVILLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FOR
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER DECREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEING DISPLACED
FROM THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EAST. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND
HUMIDITY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-
046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-006-
017-018.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005-017.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULDT
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