081  
FXUS63 KGID 200925  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
325 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
CURRENTLY, A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE  
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS TRENDED  
TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, AND MOST OF THE AREA  
IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY FAR  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD MAKE A RUN AT 40 DEGREES.  
 
BY TONIGHT, WE WILL SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE  
AND LOW-LEVELS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL STRATUS  
DEVELOPMENT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, LIMITING  
TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE  
FOCUS SHIFTS TO OUR UPCOMING WINTER STORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  
THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BOTH HAVE DRIZZLE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING  
OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE  
850MB LOW MOVES OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. OVERNIGHT, WE WILL SEE  
THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, AND WE SHOULD SEE THE FREEZING  
DRIZZLE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A  
GLAZE ARE POSSIBLE, BUT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WITH THE  
PREVIOUS SYSTEM.  
 
THERE ARE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE  
THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH  
ABOUT NOON. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST BAND  
OF SNOW NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF  
TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS 2-4" FROM  
LEXINGTON UP TO ORD, 1-3" FOR THE BULK OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
(INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES), AND LESS THAN AN INCH FOR NORTH-  
CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
WIND AND BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO END UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT  
CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. 40-50 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY,  
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRIFTING SNOW AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY.  
 
WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES ON THIS SHIFT, BUT  
ONE MAY BE WARRANTED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS OR SO.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY EVENING.  
THANKS TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, FORECAST  
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ACTUALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THAT  
SAID, ANY AREAS THAT SEE SNOWFALL COULD END UP BEING COLDER.  
 
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY. THE COLDEST  
AIR STILL APPEARS TO BE TO OUR EAST, BUT WE WILL STILL AT LEAST  
SEE SINGLE DIGIT LOWS AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS  
ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR SNOW, BUT THE PATTERN MAKES DETAILS AND TIMING NEARLY  
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE  
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN  
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING BUT GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 8-10KFT.  
 
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MVFR STRATUS OR STRATOCU DEVELOPING  
BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW, WITH ADDITIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUDS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE  
BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MANGELS  
LONG TERM...MANGELS  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
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