420
FXUS63 KICT 312242
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
WARM AND BREEZY (SUMMER TYPE PATTERN) LOOKS LIKE THE STORY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OVERNIGHT, WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NEB. INCREASING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP ANY
SHOWERS FROM FORMING OVER NORTHERN KS OR CENTRAL KS.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, EXPECT SUNNY WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY, WITH AREAS WEST
OF I-135 CLIMBING INTO THE THE LOWER 90S.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS AGAIN.
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S BY TUE AFTERNOON. ONE CAVEAT, FOR TUE AFTERNOON, IS THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS ALSO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX, MAY
MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK,
REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS OK BY TUE AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM
THIS FEATURE MAY ENOUGH TO AID IN DIURNAL STORM CHANCES FOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. SO COULD SEE POPS
INTRODUCED WITH LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE MODEL BLENDS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND KEEPING
THIS FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTH TX, WHICH WOULD KEEP CHANCES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KETCHAM
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
WED/THU, AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES
DIFFLUENT OVER EASTERN KS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
BECOMES UNCAPPED BY WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS CONVECTION, AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE, WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPING LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS NW KS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME,
WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY ON THU MORNING. POPS MAY
NEED TO BE BEEFED UP SOME FOR LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU IF THIS
SIGNAL CONTINUES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THU NIGHT. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE IN BLOWING
UP LOTS OF SCATTERED QPF, WHILE THE ECMWF ISNT AS BULLISH. FOR NOW
THE MODEL BLEND IS LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH POPS CONFINED TO
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE
MAX TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
KETCHAM
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG
WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES.
KED
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 63 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 62 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 62 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 63 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 65 92 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 64 92 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
SALINA 65 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 64 89 65 90 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 62 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 63 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 62 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...KED
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