056
FXUS63 KICT 142333
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF WARM-UP FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PROVIDING STRONG NW WINDS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF
THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, INITIAL WIND SHIFT/WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST TX, WITH A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLING
SOUTH ACROSS IA/EASTERN NE INTO NORTHERN MO.
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN OUT SOME FOR THU AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY
THU EVENING. BY 12Z FRI, UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SETUP STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH
GOOD MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON, SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN
THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE-
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE'VE SEEN SINCE AROUND DEC 29TH. HIGHS
ON SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S WITH LOWS SUN MORNING
AROUND 10 DEGREES. BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
BY 12Z SUN, VERY PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN A DEEP UPPER LOW SINKING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, KNOCKING HIGHS ON MON BACK INTO THE
30S WITH A MID WEEK WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 1-3Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY 15-16Z THURSDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
THE HIGHER END OF THESE SPEEDS WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF THE KS TURNPIKE. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 30%
FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-
135.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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