602
FXUS63 KICT 191930
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMATTERING OF HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN EVENTUAL COOL DOWN LOOKS PROBABLE NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE
SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
LATE TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, EXPECTING
A SMATTERING OF HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE MEANDERS THROUGH MID-AMERICA. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND EXPECTED LIFT WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES
GIVEN LOWER-END BUOYANCY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN THUNDER-
FREE, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS ABSOLUTELY NOT EXPECTED.
LATE SATURDAY--EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS, A DEEP WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST IN CONCERT WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO LATER SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RUN-TO-RUN
AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS FAIRLY POOR THIS FAR OUT, SO
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH SURROUNDING TIMING, COVERAGE, AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TEMPERATURES & WIND:
BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND TO MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES, AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S LOOK PROBABLE BY MID-LATE
WEEK, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS, STRONGEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN GUSTS COULD TOP 30-35 MPH.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, AN EVENTUAL COOL DOWN LOOKS PROBABLE,
AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS UPPER TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING SOUTH INTO THE HEARTLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
AREA OF VIRGA AND SPRINKLES SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST KS LATE THIS
MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUE MORNING AND WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN
AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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