610
FXUS63 KICT 200806
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO BORDERLINE
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WIND:
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE, STRONGEST BETWEEN ABOUT 9
AM AND 3 PM. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, THINKING WINDS WILL TEND
TO OVERACHIEVE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES, WITH A FEW GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 35-40 MPH.
ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30-40 MPH WED-THU.
TEMPERATURES:
A SLIGHTLY COOLER MOSTLY PACIFIC AIRMASS IN WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS TODAY
AND SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S, ALTHOUGH
THESE NUMBERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY MILD FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AS ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER
MID-AMERICA. READINGS WILL LIKELY BE WARMEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
CLIMATOLOGY. CONSEQUENTLY, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S WILL BE IN JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (DEC 23-26), WITH
RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES POSSIBLE
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AN EVENTUAL MODEST COOL DOWN AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR
OUT.
PRECIPITATION:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ZERO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AS STOUT UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST OVER THE HEARTLAND. THEREAFTER (NEXT WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...7-10 DAYS IN THE FUTURE), THERE ARE SOME
HINTS FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND D 20 KNOTS AT TIMES
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AS WE APPROACH SATURDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LLWS IMPACTING AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
TODAY...STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SOME HIGH TO BORDERLINE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER, BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS FAVORABLE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER WELL BELOW RED FLAG/CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED AS WE
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 206 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY THIS UPCOMING WEEK:
..DECEMBER 23RD
SITE FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH (YEAR)
WICHITA 65 67 (1893)
CHANUTE 66 68 (1982)
RUSSELL 60 66 (2021)
..DECEMBER 24TH
SITE FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH (YEAR)
SALINA 68 71 (1955)
RUSSELL 67 72 (1955)
..DECEMBER 25TH
SITE FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH (YEAR)
WICHITA 74 68 (2019)
SALINA 72 69 (1922)
CHANUTE 74 71 (1922)
RUSSELL 72 75 (1950)
..DECEMBER 26TH
SITE FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGH (YEAR)
WICHITA 70 69 (2021)
SALINA 66 67 (2008)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
CLIMATE...BRF/ADK
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