740
FXUS63 KICT 140505
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID AND ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WERE LESS NUMEROUS THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND WITH ABUNDANT
INSOLATION AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, WE EXPECT TO
SEE STRONG BUOYANCY AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WHILE GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE DO SEE A COUPLE OF MORE PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE EVOLUTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ONE WAS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND ANOTHER WAS
BISECTING FAR SOUTHEAST KS. THESE COULD RESULT IN SOME EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY
AS WE SEE A MORE DEEPLY MIXED PBL WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS.
EFFICIENT RAINFALL IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN WITHIN THE
HIGHER PLUME OF PWATS LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE
RUNOFF.
THE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK WHICH WILL HELP STEER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WHILE A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH ROBUST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY RACES SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE AREA WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE
MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU-FRI WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AS WE REMAIN IN A STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN AS WE MOVE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
LATE IN THE WEEK BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A FEW LINGERING STORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR CATEGORY
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
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