022  
FXUS63 KICT 042035  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
A POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
WHILE A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
THIS IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO CREATE  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, ANY RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WON'T BE ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
WITH THAT BEING SAID, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
KANSAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER  
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE,  
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS  
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MEANDERING  
UPPER LOW JUST OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. WHILE THIS LOW IS CUTOFF  
FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE POLAR JET AND  
WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING  
INTO THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THIS MAY  
BE A RATHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM LEADING TO A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW  
FOR RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED  
FATHER EAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS, MISSOURI, AND INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO  
TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THERE  
IS CURRENTLY QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF  
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL  
OPPORTUNITY AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND  
POSSIBLE FOG MON MORNING.  
 
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
COAST WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FOR TONIGHT  
INTO MON WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK  
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG  
MON MORNING. TO GET THE BALL ROLLING WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR  
CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME 5-6SM BR FOR KICT AND KCNU MON MORNING.  
IF TRENDS CONTINUE, COULD SEE CIGS LOWERED TO IFR LEVELS WITH  
LATER FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 36 55 30 44 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 32 52 26 42 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 34 52 28 43 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 36 55 31 43 / 0 0 0 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 38 62 34 47 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 27 47 21 44 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 29 50 22 43 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 31 49 24 42 / 0 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 31 51 24 41 / 0 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 39 61 39 48 / 10 10 10 20  
CHANUTE 38 56 36 45 / 0 10 10 20  
IOLA 36 54 34 43 / 0 10 0 20  
PARSONS-KPPF 38 58 38 47 / 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JC  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
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