113  
FXUS63 KICT 152348  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
648 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AM STORM CHANCES AGAIN FOR CENTRAL KS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
- MODEST STORM CHANCES AT MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING  
ABOVE CLIMO THIS WEEK.  
 
- BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING  
COOLER BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024  
 
THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS MID/CENTRAL  
KANSAS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR MAINLY MORNING CONVECTIVE  
CHANCES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH AID OF A MODEST EARLY MORNING  
LEVEL JET OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. AS EXPECTED, SUCH WAS THE  
CASE THIS MORNING WHERE MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWED AROUND  
1500 J/KG CAPE ROOTED NEAR 800 MB IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP  
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THIS WAS SAMPLED BETTER BY THE NAM AND  
12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING APPEAR TO SUGGEST  
SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A BIT MORE INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL KANSAS. SO DESPITE RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT, A COUPLE  
PESKY STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOCATIONS. PERHAPS A  
SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED AREA IN CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH  
OF I-70 WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,  
THE MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. HOWEVER, A WINDOW  
FOR BETTER CHANCES LOOK DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, AS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE  
WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT  
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS TO PERHAPS THE FLINT HILLS INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAVE A POTENTIAL BOUNDARY ACROSS  
THE AREA WHERE DIURNAL HEATING COULD PROMOTE SOME REDEVELOPMENT  
OF CONVECTION INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROF OVER THE  
WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO RELOAD AS THE UPSTREAM KICKER DIGS  
ACROSS CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTER EVOLVING OVER NEVADA  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF BEGINS  
TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE ENTIRE AREA THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
DARMOFAL  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024  
 
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON  
MORNING.  
 
JUST LIKE EARLY THIS MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO-SCT SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 10Z WITH CENTRAL KS  
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN  
PLACE. FOR NOW WILL JUST RUN WITH SOME PROB30S AT KRSL-KSLN-KGBD  
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KED  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
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