061
FXUS63 KICT 080339
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1039 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN SATURDAY EVENING
AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES ARE ON SUNDAY
WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG. WHILE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE, VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE
KEEPING THE MCS TRAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BOTH A POTENT
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ARE AIDING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
HAS LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY, SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED OUT TO BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY JUST
WEST OF DUE SOUTH. THIS IS MARGINALLY HELPING TO MIX OUT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, AND WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY DUE TO
SOME MID-LEVEL WAA, MAY WORK AGAINST WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
PERSISTENT DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AND THIS WILL HELP IN KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED, AND WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BELOW THE UPPER 70S. WITH THE LAUNCHING POINT FOR FRIDAY'S
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF NEAR 80, ALONG WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
DRIER AIR TO MIX IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH NOT HITTING 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT. STILL, SOILS CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE MOIST FROM
THIS SEASON'S AMPLE RAINFALL, AND MOISTURE MAY WIN OUT IN TERMS OF
KEEPING MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED
ACROSS KANSAS (FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST), AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING SOUTH OF THIS FRONT MAY LEAD TO ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100, AND HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105.
THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO LEAVE THE DOOR
OPEN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE BEST.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE MODELS
WITHIN THIS RANGE SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPPING CAUSED BY PERSISTENT VERY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE ANYTHING AT
ALL SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS
(DESPITE POPS AROUND 20-30%).
CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, ITS LOOKING LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND MAY CONTINUE TO BISECT THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG AND AROUND 15-20 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS, AND MAYBE A
COUPLE MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO MONDAY. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO CAPPING, ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO SHEAR (UNDER 10 KNOTS), SO STORM
SEVERITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THE FRONT FINALLY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
START OFF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY WEAKENS AND
DEPARTS EASTWARD, DRIER CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1889, WICHITA HAS ONLY HAD 7 CALENDAR
YEARS WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST RECENT YEAR
WITHOUT A 100-DEGREE TEMPERATURES WAS 1927.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST IS FOR WICHITA TO HIT 99 ON TODAY, 100
ON FRIDAY, 98 ON SATURDAY, AND 97 ON SUNDAY. IF WICHITA WERE TO
HIT 100 ON TODAY, IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY
SINCE 2007. IF WICHITA WERE TO HIT 100 ON FRIDAY, IT WOULD BE
THE LATEST FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY SINCE 1928. WITH DECREASED
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH IT BEING, CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
THE WARMEST PART OF THE YEAR, THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO IS LIKELY
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WICHITA TO HIT 100 DEGREES THIS YEAR,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM
CLIMATE...JC
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