597
FXUS63 KICT 072030
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENTLY, THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW SITS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH INDIANA
INTO ARKANSAS AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THIS LOW GOING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONNECTING TO AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA.
FROM THIS SURFACE LOW, A COLD FRONT STRETCHES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER AIR. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 7.5-8.5 C/KM, SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
CENTRAL KS. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WINDS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN CENTRAL KS, BUT GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT ISSUE ONE AT THIS
TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER
60S IN SOUTHEAST KS.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN PLACE, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WITH THE
AREAS IN CENTRAL KS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, BEGINNING TO RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SURFACE IN OUR
AREA. THIS WILL HELP WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING OUR AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY MAY BRING SOME IMPACTS
TO AVIATION INTERESTS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE BY 12Z AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE
TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z, AND GUSTS
WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AROUND 25 PERCENT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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