800
FXUS63 KICT 042329
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN 20-40% RETURNING LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE COAST
OF THE WESTERN US. THERE IS WEAK RIDGING SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER EASTERN SD WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN OUR AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL KS. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG
IN SOUTHEAST KS. THOUGH, THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG ARE VERY LOW
GIVEN WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS, INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
SOUTHEAST KS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING THIS WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT RAIN
CHANCES (20-40%) IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY THAT PRECIPITATION
WOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW IN CENTRAL KS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS FAR OUT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND TIMING AS A LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES. TRENDS WILL THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. FOR TEMPERATURES, COOLER HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
CURRENTLY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WINDS SHOULD
DRAMATICALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AREA-WIDE.
WITH HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE REGION, THESE LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN KANSAS, DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN 10-17Z MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER 17Z, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JC
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