999
FXUS63 KICT 170438
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS, AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY OVER
SOUTHEAST KS. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND WINDY WEDNESDAY, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES LIKELY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS. LOWER-END SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- COOL DOWN THURSDAY, WARMING BACK UP THIS WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH AMIDST AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 4 PM AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS (GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). GIVEN THE LACK OF
UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING, ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED, SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM-FREE.
HOWEVER, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE GIVEN MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (45-55 KTS) FOR JUNE STANDARDS, INCLUDING A
STRONG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT TO THE SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY, A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER AND 60+
MPH WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THINKING COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. COMBINATION OF
STRONG/FAT INSTABILITY AND 35-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISKS, ALONG WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THINKING THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD END BY 11 PM OR SO.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT--THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING 800-600MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF A GREAT BEND--MCPHERSON--EMPORIA LINE. DESPITE MOST
UNSTABLE PARCELS BEING RATHER ELEVATED (ABOVE 800-700MB), THIS COULD
BE A SNEAKY SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT, GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LIFT AMIDST A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, A
BACKBUILDING MCS SIGNAL COULD ALSO FAVOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING CONCERNS.
THIS WEEKEND...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ADDITIONAL
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
CULPRITS WILL BE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST IN CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MID-
AMERICA. STRONG BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH SURROUNDING FORECAST SPECIFICS FOR
THIS PERIOD, STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES.
TEMPERATURES/WIND:
DEEPENING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, STRONGEST GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, HOISTED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR CHASE--GREENWOOD--ELK COUNTIES ON EAST.
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WILL LIKELY BE TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY),
AS THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THINKING 90S TO MID 100S ARE PROBABLE, WARMEST OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. WICHITA IS FORECAST TO HIT 101 DEGREES, WHICH WOULD BE
THE FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY SINCE AUGUST 8, 2025. HEAT INDICES
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE 100-105 DEGREES, MOSTLY JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
IN CONTRAST, THURSDAY COULD VERY WELL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT
7 DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW RAN WITH UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
REGION IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
OTHERWISE A RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A COUPLE STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO OVER THE FLINT HILLS
AND ARE TRACKING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
LAST A FEW HOUR HOURS, WITH KCNU THE ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED. A
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS. SO WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THUNDER IN AT KCNU AFTER
22Z, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICK-UP LATE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS. WE ARE LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT KICT
AND KCNU AROUND 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS WITH THESE SPEEDS
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ053-
070>072-094>096.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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