619  
FXUS63 KICT 302336  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
636 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS LATE  
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
 
- VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ON TUESDAY  
 
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
 
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR  
TONIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, HOWEVER SOME MID TO HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD COULD PREVENT THINGS FROM RADIATING  
OUT COMPLETELY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. IF SOME DECENT BREAKS IN THE  
CLOUDS HAPPEN THEN SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE  
FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. COOLER  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH LIGHTER  
WINDS.  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE  
ROTATING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF  
OREGON/WASHINGTON, ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG JETSTREAM NOSING INTO  
CALIFORNIA. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POWERFUL JETSTREAM  
WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD CARVING  
OUT AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG  
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS FOR TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SOUTH WIND  
SPEEDS WILL SURPASS WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF  
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH MODEL PROBABILITIES OF 850MB  
WIND SPEEDS REACHING 50KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
THIS COMBINED WITH DEEPER MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS WOULD ALLOW  
THOSE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE.  
MEANWHILE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS ARRIVAL TIME OF RICHER  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD, AND WHEN WARM CAPPING  
700MB TEMPERATURES/UPPER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST.  
TIMING OF THESE ELEMENTS WILL BE THE KEY AS TO WHEN  
THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY. AT  
THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE IN THE EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND  
EAST OF THE I-135/I-35 CORRIDOR. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN THE  
EVENING, THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER  
WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE LIKELY GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR  
MAGNITUDE/VECTOR ORIENTATION BEING MORE ORTHOGONAL TO DRY LINE  
AND OTHER FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS OF CAPE/HODOGRAPH SHAPE. WE WILL  
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE  
EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST OF KANSAS BY EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS  
DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY  
PERIOD WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE TROUGH  
AXIS. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ESPECIALLY  
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WHERE A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.  
THE SIGNAL BY THE MODELS FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING SCENARIO  
HAS REMAINED QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS GIVEN A STALLED  
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES, AND LIKELY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROLONGED RIGHT  
ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALL IN PLAY. MODEL TRENDS  
SHOW KANSAS BEING NORTHWEST OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP  
LOCATION WITH WITH GLANCING BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY  
NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST KANSAS WOULD HAVE THE BETTER  
CHANCE OF SEEING THE MOST RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA  
OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z  
BEFORE SCATTERING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,  
ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR/BELOW 10 KT.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK  
OTHER THAN TUESDAY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON'S FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL BE  
ELEVATED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL  
KANSAS DUE TO EXPECTED VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS DURING THE DAY. IF  
ANY LOCATIONS WERE TO REACH EXTREME FIRE DANGER IT WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRY LINE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR  
CAN SPREAD. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS LIKE LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY  
14 IN CENTRAL KANSAS COULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WHERE THE DRIER AIR TRIES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA.  
 
 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CDJ  
AVIATION...BRF  
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab KS Page
Main Text Page