997
FXUS63 KICT 231129
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER TO SOUTHEAST KS AND LINGER INTO MID MORNING
AS ABUNDANT WARM MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.
TODAY A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING AS IT SLIDES WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS VICINITY. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
ALLUDED TOO, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A PSEUDO-DRYLINE FEATURE
STEMMING FROM THE SFC LOW THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS DO
KEEP THE AREA CAPPED AND WITH SFC CONVERGENCE LOOKING RATHER
BLEAK, THINKING IT WILL BE HARD TO FIND A GOOD FOCUS FOR ANY SFC
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF WE
ARE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT AN UPDRAFT, THERE WOULD THEN BE AMPLE
CAPE/SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHEN ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN RETURN. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST FRINGE TO
START THE NIGHT. AS THE ANOMALOUS JET VEERS, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORM TO FILL IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL FROM A COMBO OF MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG AND
25-35KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO COME TOGETHER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. WHILE MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SET OFF A FEW STORMS AS
IT ROLLS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
BE NEAR OR EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES
BY 21Z (SLOWEST CASE, NAM). ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
BOAST VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40+KTS IN COMBINATION WITH LCLS <
1000M AND 0-1KM SRH OF 172 (ESRH OF 159) WITH FAVORABLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS EARLY. STORMS THAT FORM ALONG OR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING LARGE, POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT HAIL (SHIP >1), DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES (STP
>1).
GIVEN SHEAR/FRONT ORIENTATION EXPECT EARLY STORMS TO BE AT LEAST
SEMI- DISCRETE BEFORE STORMS LATER GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE.
SOUTHEAST KS MAY ONLY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR 3-4 HOURS AS THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE CWA BY 00Z, IF NOT SOONER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
A DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS MID WEEK. THE RESULTING LEE TROUGHING AND SFC
LOW WILL REALLY CRANK UP THE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED AS
THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD REMAIN TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID-MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AN MCS WILL RESULT IN
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
KED
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 80 67 75 43 / 20 30 10 0
HUTCHINSON 78 63 72 41 / 10 20 10 0
NEWTON 76 64 73 42 / 20 30 20 0
ELDORADO 76 65 75 43 / 30 30 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 68 78 44 / 30 30 20 0
RUSSELL 71 54 67 37 / 10 20 20 0
GREAT BEND 74 55 69 38 / 10 20 10 0
SALINA 73 59 70 39 / 10 40 20 0
MCPHERSON 76 62 71 39 / 10 30 20 0
COFFEYVILLE 79 68 81 46 / 50 20 50 10
CHANUTE 73 65 79 45 / 60 30 50 10
IOLA 72 64 77 44 / 60 40 40 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 68 81 45 / 60 30 50 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...KED
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