583
FXUS63 KICT 122326
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
526 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH IS
DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH MODEST
COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AND MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD EASILY SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND. SHORT-TO-MID RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVE PROGRESSIVE, SHARP, POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. ROBUST SYNOPTIC ASCENT FROM A
NUMBER OF SOURCES ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. A HINT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BRIEFLY OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT-TO-MID
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT HOW WIDESPREAD THE HIGHER QPFS WILL
BE. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL, AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAINFALL APPEARS
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TURNPIKE
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.25" TO 0.75",
AND THOSE ALONG I-70 MAY ONLY SEE AROUND 0.10". REGARDLESS, THIS
WILL BE WELCOME RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE D0 TO D1 DROUGHT HAS BEGUN TO CREEP IN
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENT, MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THIS
WINTER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
PARTICULAR SYSTEM, BUT PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED FLOOD PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREA
EXPERIENCES BRIEF TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR POTENT MID/UPPER RIDGING OVERSPREADING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. AFTERWARDS, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM LIKELY TO ENTER INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO
BRING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON TOP OF THE ALREADY PRESENT
WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
AMPLE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS HAVE TURNED
OUT OF THE NORTH FOR CENTRAL KANSAS SITES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN TURN EASTERLY BETWEEN 16-18Z. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF YET DUE TO SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
MON-WED...A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S-70S, PERIODIC STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WARM, WINDY, AND DRY COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT PERIODIC
ELEVATED GRASSFIRE DANGER, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE DANGER AT TIMES IF DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY CAN
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. STAY TUNED AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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