579
FXUS63 KICT 282006
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.
- SNOW LIKELY MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING THEIR FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
UPPER IMPULSE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER
EASTERN CO WITH RETURN FLOW ALSO RAMPING-UP ACROSS THE PLAINS.
UPPER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASING WHICH WILL RAMP-UP RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WHERE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BY 12Z SAT, COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS. IT WILL
RAPIDLY SURGE SOUTH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH WICHITA IN THE 15-18Z
TIME FRAME. AS COLDER AIR MOVES-IN ON SAT, SOME OF THE PRECIP
WILL TURN OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KS, WITH
ACCUMULATION STILL EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY NEAR I-70 SAT MORNING. WILL GO AHEAD AND RUN WITH
A WIND ADVISORY FOR SAT ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE.
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH HIGHS ON SUN STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A VERY SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CURRENT
ONE, MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN SUN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SNOW WILL
LIKELY START LATE SUN NIGHT OVER WESTERN KS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH SNOW WORKING EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WORKING THROUGH KS DURING THE DAY MON ALONG WITH
MOST OF THE LIFT IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH REGION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP TYPE GOES, WE ARE LOOKING AT ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTH WITH THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING THIS TREND, WHICH WOULD PLACE THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AT THIS POINT IT'S LOOKING LIKE AN
ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SEEING IT'S FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.
WE WILL TRANSITION TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR TUE THROUGH THU.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES (LOW CIGS)
LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING MAY GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO IFR/LIFR TOWARDS MORNING. WE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO ALSO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 07-09Z, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-135. A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES IN
CENTRAL KS ON SAT MORNING BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON SAT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SPEEDS OF 35-45
MPH WILL BE COMMON IN CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON
SAT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068-082-083-091-092.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MWM
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