095
FXUS63 KICT 011138
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEEKEND AHEAD WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
POWERFUL UPPER LOW IS NOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS/OK
PANHANDLE WITH A STRONG UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH CENTRAL KS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW IS LOCATED NEAR DODGE
CITY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHEAST NE.
STRONG 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AND WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS INTO EASTERN KS THIS MORNING. WITH
EXTREME PW VALUES STILL IN PLACE, VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL
BE LIKELY WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.
UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND START GET SHEARED APART TODAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/TROUGH
WILL SINK SOUTH. SO THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL FOR TODAY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDES SOUTH.
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT, FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN RISK THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO
FEEL LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN COOLER MID/UPPER TEMPS AND DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND BY FRI MORNING, BULK OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE EVENTUALLY GET INTO
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TO START THE WORK WEEK, A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AND DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE LOOK TO GET
BACK INTO A WARMING TREND FOR TUE INTO WED AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ALLOWING PLAINS TO GET BACK INTO SOME RETURN FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
POWERFUL UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS WILL ONLY SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD QUICKLY FILL-IN ACROSS
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING WITH THIS AREA SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEY SHOULD IMPACT KRSL-KGBD-KSLN ANYTIME
AFTER 14-15Z AND KHUT-KICT IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. WE SHOULD
SEE HEAVY RAIN REDUCE VIS TO THE 2-4SM RANGE AS THE PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS MIXED-IN. AFTER 00Z, ONLY
SOUTHERN KS WILL STILL BE SEEING PRECIP AS SOME DRIER AIR
MOVES- IN FROM THE NORTH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>049.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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