127
FXUS63 KICT 160836
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BRING A COOL DOWN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EARLY THIS MORNING, A BAND OF MID-LEVEL WAA WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS AIDING IN PRODUCING AND
MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AND INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SEMI-FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AS THIS AXIS OF WAA LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH IT ENDING RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS CLEARING MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-70), AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE
90S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WARM UP IS
PRIMARILY BEING SUPPORTED BY MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY REACH 100. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, HEAT
INDICES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 105. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER, BUT HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 100
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID-WEEK HEAT WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AS IT
GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
COASTLINE AND THE REGION'S NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM OUT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. STILL, IT WON'T WEAKEN ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANOTHER COUPLE OF VERY WARM DAYS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. AT THIS TIME, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND WILL SLOWLY LUMBER ITS
WAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, NOW
HAVING IT PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES STILL SEEM TO BE ON BOARD WITH MORE
FALL-LIKE AIR ARRIVING EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES, PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS RSL/SLN PRIOR TO
SUNRISE, SO SHRA/TSRA WAS MAINTAINED IN CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. COULD SEE
THESE LOW CIGS DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING PER THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, THOUGH THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AT
ALL SITES, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ096-099-100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK
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