368
FXUS63 KICT 301911
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
211 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.
- MODEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WARMER 80S SUNDAY-MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...FLEET-FOOTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING
MID-AMERICA IN CONCERT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...A DEEP TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MID-
AMERICA AMIDST DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INITIATE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL.
MONDAY AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
MID-AMERICA ALONG WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST MAY SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND, THINKING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
WHEN THERE IS A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF SHEAR, BUOYANCY, AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING. WHILE THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT, STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
FOG:
TONIGHT--EARLY FRIDAY...LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AMIDST CLEARING
SKIES AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT MUCH MODEL
SUPPORT FOR FOG, ALTHOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG FOR LOW-LYING AREAS BETWEEN
ABOUT 4-9 AM.
TEMPERATURES:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS AN EXPANSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY-MONDAY, AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. 80S LOOK
PROBABLE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS
WILL CONTINUE MAKING THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW RELATIVELY HEAVIER SHOWERS RESULTING IN NEAR-MVFR
VSBYS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT GBD/RSL/SLN. AS SUCH,
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP AT THESE SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP AT CNU THIS EVENING FOR A POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBYS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL SITES ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS PER POINT SOUNDINGS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION WITH THIS CYCLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
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