894
FXUS63 KICT 271156
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021
* SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING
* GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH FRI
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL KS,
WITH A 700MB COLD FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN KS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
TX. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES
ALONG THE ARCING FRONT FROM KS TO TX. MEANWHILE, SOME WRAPAROUND
LIGHT SNOW IS PIVOTING E/SE THROUGH SW KS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY, WITH SOME LINGERING
WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO LATE THIS
MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A
QUICK DEMISE OF THE PRECIP BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE "HIGHEST"
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING MAY ACTUALLY BE ACROSS SE KS WHERE THE BEST
FORCING RESIDES ALONG THE 700 FRONT.
AFTER THIS MORNING'S SNOW, THE MAIN CHALLENGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE CLOUDS, TEMPS, AND WIND. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG, 1035MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
NORMALLY, THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AND, FOR MOST, THIS IS WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN.
WHERE SNOWCOVER EXISTS, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WILL IT
MELT OFF, AND HOW LONG WILL THIS IMPACT TEMPS.
SOUTHERN KS (ALONG/EAST OF I-35) MOSTLY MISSED OUT ON THE SNOW THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE. EVEN
THERE, THOUGH, SOILS ARE MORE MOIST RIGHT NOW THANKS TO YEAR-TO-
DATE PRECIP RUNNING 200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHILE TEMPS WILL
MODERATE, IT MAY NOT OCCUR QUITE AS QUICKLY AS IT WOULD IN A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL KS WILL DEAL WITH SNOWCOVER
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING SOME, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE DEEPEST
SNOWPACK EXISTS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RUSSELL/LINCOLN
COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THE MODERATION, TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO NORTHERLY SFC WINDS,
LINGERING CLOUDCOVER, AND SNOWPACK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW ZERO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021
* QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM LIKELY LATE FRI/SAT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
A MORE RAPID LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CO FRI. THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY TRANSLATE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE
GENERAL TREND WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A SLOWER AND
DEEPER WAVE AS IT CROSSES KS, SO WE'LL SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUS PLUME OF MOISTURE GETTING WRAPPED
INTO THE SYSTEM. DESPITE A DEEPER TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A WARMER ONE, FAVORING MOSTLY LIQUID. THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEALTHY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY
COLDER, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR MAY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY
WINTRY THREAT TO BE REALIZED. A DEEPER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASED RISK OF WINDY CONDITIONS (AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE
SYSTEM).
RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING MAY RETURN TO
THE WRN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS LEADING TO ACTIVE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MAINLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER IMPULSE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT MOST SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
KCNU WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS THE LONGEST AND SHOULD START
CLEARING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 28 17 43 31 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 26 15 42 29 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 27 17 42 30 / 10 0 0 0
ELDORADO 28 17 42 31 / 10 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 18 44 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 21 10 38 24 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 21 12 39 28 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 24 13 41 29 / 10 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 25 14 41 28 / 10 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 33 19 43 31 / 10 0 0 0
CHANUTE 30 18 42 31 / 10 0 0 0
IOLA 29 17 42 30 / 10 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 32 19 43 31 / 10 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page