001
FXUS63 KICT 191103
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
REGION TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN, HOWEVER
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY AFTER TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING AFTER 3PM ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 30KTS FOR SOME ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL STORMS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
BEFORE MULTI-CELLS BEGIN TO CLUSTER. THE THREAT LOOKS TO TRANSITION
TO MORE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR SUNDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE ATMOSPHERE COULD DESTABILIZE MORE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY INFLUENCE THE
REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
ACTUALLY BEING COOLER THAN AVERAGE ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CAUSE THE WINDS TO
SWITCH AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. MEANWHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS MAINLY AFTER 20Z AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NIGHT TIME
HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. FINALLY
LOW CLOUDS IN IFR CATEGORY LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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