726
FXUS63 KICT 252342
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ON
AND OFF CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH IS SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. LEADING TO SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CREATE ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TODAY AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (1.25-1.50")
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. THEN, FOR WED/THU, AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW STALLS
OVER CALIFORNIA, A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH
A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVELS, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCAPPED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS, ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY,
WILL MEAN A LOW CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS, SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEING PLACED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR WED/THU.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOME ISOLATED OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST WITH THE ELEVATED PWATS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. BUT, WITH
WEAK FORCING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY, A POTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SEND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING IN A DRIER AIRMASS THAT WILL QUELL RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR, OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE, NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
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