774
FXUS63 KICT 221845
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
145 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAINLY WEST OF
THE FLINT HILLS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD LEE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO EASTERN COLORADO,
MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION INTO
KANSAS. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE AREA, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TODAY, WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELDS SPREAD EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S, WELL
BELOW RECORD VALUES BUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS.
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS FRIDAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WILL YIELD SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-20S TO PERHAPS NEAR 30 MPH WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS, WHILE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
(CHANUTE–PARSONS–COFFEYVILLE CORRIDOR) SEE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BUT
STILL NOTICEABLE SOUTH WINDS. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, SUPPORTING GOOD MIXING AND LIMITING
OVERNIGHT COOLING, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
THE MORE CONSEQUENTIAL PERIOD BEGINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE STUBBORN SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS EAST-
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO
KANSAS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, DEEPENING MOISTURE, AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ENSEMBLES FAVOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (E.G., HUTCHINSON, GREAT BEND,
SALINA CORRIDORS) WITH LOWER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES EXTENDING INTO
THE WICHITA METRO AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, BUT TRENDS SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN WESTERN ZONES, SPREADING EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE LIGHT AS THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES RATHER THAN A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR MORE APPRECIABLE TOTALS WOULD BE
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
OVERLAP LONGEST.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAIN WAVE, COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO KANSAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH-
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS FOR OUR CENTRAL KS TERMINALS. BREEZY WINDS
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CENTRAL KS
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOP
AVIATION...TOP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page