022
FXUS63 KICT 042035
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
A POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO CREATE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, ANY RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WON'T BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE,
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MOISTURE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A MEANDERING
UPPER LOW JUST OFF OF THE PACIFIC COAST. WHILE THIS LOW IS CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW, THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE POLAR JET AND
WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THIS MAY
BE A RATHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM LEADING TO A FAIRLY NARROW WINDOW
FOR RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE APPRECIABLE RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED
FATHER EAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS, MISSOURI, AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HOWEVER THERE
IS CURRENTLY QUITE THE SPREAD ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT POTENTIAL
OPPORTUNITY AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE FOG MON MORNING.
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL MAINTAIN FOR TONIGHT
INTO MON WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOG
MON MORNING. TO GET THE BALL ROLLING WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME 5-6SM BR FOR KICT AND KCNU MON MORNING.
IF TRENDS CONTINUE, COULD SEE CIGS LOWERED TO IFR LEVELS WITH
LATER FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 36 55 30 44 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 32 52 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 34 52 28 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 36 55 31 43 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 38 62 34 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 27 47 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 29 50 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 31 49 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 31 51 24 41 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 39 61 39 48 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 38 56 36 45 / 0 10 10 20
IOLA 36 54 34 43 / 0 10 0 20
PARSONS-KPPF 38 58 38 47 / 10 10 10 20
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...RBL
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