703
FXUS63 KICT 202329
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
529 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
A MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION, HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ALLOWED CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST KS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO WESTERN
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL KS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
SAT-SUN...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS
CONTINUES TO TREND MUCH SLOWER RESULTING IN A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL
MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES ARE INDICATING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ALSO PROGGED TO BE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SO A
SLOWER AND DEEPER EVOLUTION WHICH WE ALSO SEE IN THE LATEST ECMWF
SHOULD RESULT IN A WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION.
INITIALLY, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN, BUT A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR REMAINING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
A ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL DEPART.
ANOTHER BLAST OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN IT'S WAKE,
MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAINTAINED SOME LOWER
POPS THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE
GOING FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS IF ANY FOG
DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND PATCHY. MORE
CONCERN FOR FOG WILL BE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE MOIST GROUND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 17 45 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 17 44 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 14 44 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 14 44 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 16 46 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 18 49 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 18 45 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 18 46 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 16 44 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 17 44 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 15 43 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 14 43 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 16 44 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CWH
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