982
FXUS63 KICT 290812
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENINGS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHT A MID/UPPER
LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING
LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS PROMOTED CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYLINE SPANS FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
TEMPERATURES/WINDS:
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES FROM UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. DEWPOINTS NEAR/ABOVE
70 DEGREES AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH THIS HEAT TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES A
BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED (NEAR/BELOW 100). HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES WILL THEN RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST VALUES TO THIS POINT APPEAR LIKELY TO RESIDE IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL
PERSIST.
REGARDING WINDS, A TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARISING FROM
CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEEK'S END. THIS AFTERNOON'S SETUP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THAT OF SUNDAY'S, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE ANTICIPATED CHANGE TO THE SURFACE
PATTERN.
RAIN CHANCES:
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE EMBEDDED RIPPLES IN MID/UPPER
FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS (GENERALLY
WEST OF K-14) DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY. PER THE PRIOR DISCUSSION, INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER THIS EVENING
SHOULD ACTIVITY MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ON THE WHOLE, HOWEVER, CAPPING
CONCERNS RAISE DOUBTS ABOUT EXTENT OF COVERAGE THIS FAR EAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THIS POINT APPEAR TO
OUR WEST WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE MAY
ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH, STILL THINKING MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE
TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A
STOUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AROUND 1500-2000 FT AGL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR
ALL TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...ADK
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