005
FXUS63 KICT 222023
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
* CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL STAY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
* SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF KANSAS TURNPIKE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE.
* SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK.
MORNING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS EXITED SE KS AND NE OK AT THIS TIME,
WITH SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SE KS. FURTHER TO THE WEST,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE WITH STRATO CU
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL KS. LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESO PAGE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (CAP)
REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL PROBABLY KEEP ANY KIND OF
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESSES, LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED TO THE N-NE OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NE KS AND SE NEB. SO THINK THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH
EAST INTO THE PLAINS, WITH A SHARP DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
EAST ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY SAT
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 135, BY SAT
AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-1800 J/KG)
AND BULK SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KTS, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT EVENING.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT, OVER THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS, SUGGESTS A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH VERY LARGE HAIL (GOLFBALL TO TENNIS
BALL SIZE), AND DAMAGING WINDS (65 TO 65 MPH). CURVING HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST THAT A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL, DURING THE
21-24Z TIME FRAME OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS. AS THE EARLY
EVENING PROGRESSES, DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE,
PROBABLY OVERTAKING THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS, WITH THIS CONVECTION
SWEEPING EAST INTO SE KS AFTER 00Z/SUN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN AND MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE ON SAT
EVENING, WITH WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO TRAINING OF STORMS OVER SE KS FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT FOR SE KS.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR SUN AND MON. LATEST
GFS SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AS THIS IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
LEAVE A SMALL POP ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER, IN CASE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY.
KETCHAM
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND NW FLOW, LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE BEGINNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN.
KETCHAM
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
SOME STUBBORN MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON AT A NUMBER OF TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE FIRST SIX TO TEN HOURS OF THE TAF BUT
THIS WILL DIE OFF SOME AROUND 05Z TO 07Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET UP
A LLWS SITUATION AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRSL AND KGBD. THIS LLWS
SITUATION WILL BE BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WITH MOST TERMINALS
SEEING AS 50-70 DEGREE CHANGE IN DIRECTION IN THE LOWEST 2KFT
DURING THE NIGHT. BY 12Z TO 14Z, THE LLWS SITUATION WILL ABATE AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
METZGER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 70 89 62 84 / 0 40 30 10
HUTCHINSON 69 86 58 84 / 0 30 20 10
NEWTON 69 88 60 84 / 0 40 30 10
ELDORADO 69 88 62 82 / 0 40 50 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 70 91 63 83 / 0 40 50 20
RUSSELL 66 83 54 84 / 10 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 66 83 55 81 / 0 10 10 0
SALINA 70 87 57 86 / 10 30 20 0
MCPHERSON 69 86 57 83 / 0 30 20 10
COFFEYVILLE 68 89 66 81 / 0 50 90 30
CHANUTE 67 88 65 80 / 10 60 80 30
IOLA 67 88 64 80 / 10 60 80 30
PARSONS-KPPF 68 89 65 82 / 0 60 80 30
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...METZGER
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