075
FXUS63 KICT 272342
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT; A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
- POWERFUL COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIP.
- WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING TO BE AROUND ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STOUT
MID/UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. RECORD HIGHS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECORDED THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD
AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INDUCING DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR BIG CHANGES
TO THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
AND AN EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL BEGIN IT'S TREK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL WAA ALONG WITH REMAINING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS, AND
MAYBE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP AND RACE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TRENDS IN THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE HAVE SHOWN A MARKED INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (PARTICULARLY WITH
THE NAM, WHICH HAS A TENDENCY TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED INSTABILITY). GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR, IF A STORM CAN REALIZE THE
POTENTIAL 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE DIME TO NICKEL
SIZED HAIL. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI, AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE BY THE TIME THE
VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES, RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS ALONG WITH
SUBTLE, BUT PRESENT, SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH
A PERIOD OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING NORTH OF 1-70. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, QPFS BELOW 0.01" AND
VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECORD WARM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR SLICK SPOTS ON
SOME ROADWAYS, BUT THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY
EVENING, BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY CUTOFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ON SUNDAY, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO DRIVING GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TO BE IN
THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MITIGATING FACTORS,
INCLUDING INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
AND 30S (AND FALLING), AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE CONCERNING ASPECT OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE WIND CHILLS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS AND
20S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF LULL IN STRONGER WINDS APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON TRENDS FROM SEVERAL SHORT-TERM
MODELS. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
MONDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AND
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA ON MONDAY WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE
TEENS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW RETURNING, MILDER AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE MILDER
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER 09Z, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE N/NW AT 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 KT. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN KS AFTER 12Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER MVFR
CIGS WILL REACH RSL AND GBD. IN ADDITION, A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN
IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30
MENTION AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 45-50 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL DRIVE THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN/TIED TODAY:
TODAY DECEMBER 27...
SITE CURRENT HIGH @ 3PM PREVIOUS RECORD (YEAR)
WICHITA 73 68 (1946)
CHANUTE 74 74 (1946)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...JC/MWM
CLIMATE...JC/MWM
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