038
FXUS63 KICT 222333
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CURRENTLY, THERE IN AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS DRAPING DOWN FROM A LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE IN
EASTERN KANSAS WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. AS WE CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DIURNAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN CENTRAL
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR, SEVERE
STORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW. FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGERING IN SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST KS INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST KS WITH DECENT MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN KS. THESE FEATURES COMBINED MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST KS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND
6.5 C/KM. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE.
BY SUNDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE PLAINS. THICKNESS WILL START TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY, PROMOTING A
WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW PROGGED FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE, SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY LOW. FOR TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD IMPACT KICT; LIGHTNING IS THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE NEXT ROUND COULD MOVE IN AFTER 6Z FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS; PROB30 GROUPS WERE KEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR KCNU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST IFR INSTEAD, BUT IT WAS DECIDED TO STAY A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR NOW GIVEN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AROUND.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EAST
OF THE TURNPIKE. A PROB30 WAS USED FOR KCNU WHICH MAY BE CHANGED
TO A PREVAILING GROUP WITH AN UPCOMING ISSUANCE. KICT IS ON THE
EDGE, AND IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...VJP
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