685
FXUS63 KICT 291732
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
MAIN STORY UP FRONT: HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. A COOL DOWN AND A CHANCE
OF STORMS TO FOLLOW IN THE LATTER HALF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT HEAT
AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. EXACT DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT HEAT
INDICES WILL BE DETERMINED BY SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION
INFLUENCING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE, AND THE AMOUNT THE MOISTURE THAT
MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
SIGNALING A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WINDS TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
A LITTLE MORE MIXING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW 100S IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
102 TO 106. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
HELPING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110. FOR
FRIDAY, AREAS WEST OF I-135 WILL SEE HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WHILE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. THUS WE ARE EXTENDING THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA.
THE FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND POOLING OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP TO NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK, AND HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR
STORM CHANCES IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIED ALONG THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS
MODEST AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE THUS LIMITING
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH
AND THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SHOP OVER THE STATE,
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST, THUS THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW
HELPING TO AID IN TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ALSO, WHILE TOO FAR TO IRON OUT EXACT DETAILS, SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTS NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THERE ARE MINIMAL IF ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS HAVE STARTED
TO DEVELOP BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS. THERE
COULD BE SCATTERED LOW VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT 5-10KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 99 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 99 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 99 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 102 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 101 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 100 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 97 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ053-070>072-
094>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...VJP
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