242  
FXUS63 KICT 260437  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1137 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG OVER SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY TUE  
MORNING. WE LOOK TO BE RADIATING OUT QUICKLY AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE  
OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING  
AT DENSE FOG AND ANY FOG THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE FAIRY SHALLOW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
A COMPACT POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST  
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL  
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL  
KANSAS. LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF  
THIS ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING, GENERALLY  
NORTHWEST OF GREAT BEND TO SALINA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR  
NOW, BUT THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A LOW POP FOR A  
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ACROSS  
NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT, A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL  
KANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THIS LIGHT  
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
THE WARM-UP BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH DEEPENING MIXING AND INCREASING  
SOLAR INSOLATION SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING THE 60S. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING COMMENCES.  
 
DEEPENING MIXING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL  
SUPPORT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S  
LIKELY. GIVEN EXACTLY WHERE THE THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP AND AMOUNT  
OF SOLAR INSOLATION, COULD EVEN SEE READINGS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES  
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY  
EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING. MAY INITIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM  
OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS  
WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH  
SUSPECT LACK OF APPRECIABLE LIFT AMIDST MARGINAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP  
THINGS MOSTLY CAPPED. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES MAY ARRIVE LATER  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF  
THE I-135 CORRIDOR, AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES  
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-  
ALL, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH IF THE  
CAP CAN BE BREACHED, A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO  
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY EVENING  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. SUSPECT THE GFS IS OVERDOING  
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOME.  
 
KLEINSASSER  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS INTERESTING  
FROM A THUNDERSTORM STANDPOINT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH A POTENT UPPER WAVE  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT  
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES REMAIN IN QUESTION, ALONG WITH THE QUALITY  
OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE  
RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES  
IN CONCERT WITH AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT  
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SUSPECT THE GFS  
IS ONCE AGAIN A BIT TOO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE QUALITY RETURNING  
NORTH AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST  
STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL BE MAINLY  
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS, WITH CHANCES SHIFTING TO MAINLY  
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. STAY  
TUNED, AS DETAILS BECOME BETTER REFINED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
 
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S. SATURDAY LOOKS  
PARTICULARLY CHILLY DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STOUT NORTH  
WINDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW  
FREEZING IS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, AS SKIES CLEAR AND HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
KLEINSASSER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE  
MORNING.  
 
LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF  
THEM EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE  
STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME  
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. IF WE DO SEE SOME, FEEL  
THAT IT WILL NOT BE DENSE AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. THE TWO  
SITES WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN IS KCNU, WHERE MOISTURE IS  
SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND KHUT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH  
RANGE.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019  
 
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT  
LOW-END VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS  
BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH  
WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SOLID VERY HIGH  
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MARGINAL RH  
VALUES SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LOWER SOME THURSDAY-  
FRIDAY, DUE TO INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER  
WINDS. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
VAUGHAN/KLEINSASSER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 40 64 47 73 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 38 65 48 74 / 10 0 0 10  
NEWTON 39 63 48 72 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 39 64 47 72 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 64 46 73 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 39 67 51 78 / 20 10 0 0  
GREAT BEND 38 65 50 77 / 20 0 0 10  
SALINA 39 66 50 76 / 10 10 0 0  
MCPHERSON 38 65 48 74 / 10 0 0 10  
COFFEYVILLE 40 63 43 72 / 0 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 39 62 43 72 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 38 62 43 71 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 39 63 43 72 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RBL  
SHORT TERM...ADK  
LONG TERM...ADK  
AVIATION...RM  
FIRE WEATHER...TAV/ADK  
 
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