584
FXUS63 KICT 231143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135
- MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 FOR SATURDAY
AND BEYOND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY MORNING, MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AND WITHIN AN AXIS OF 850-700 MB
WAA AND ON THE EDGE OF A 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME.
THE WAA WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I- 135. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2". MEAN
STORM MOTIONS HAVE A COMPONENT ORTHOGONAL TO THE WAA AXIS AND
MAY YIELD A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION, MAINLY
ACROSS LINCOLN, ELLSWORTH, SALINE, MCPHERSON, AND MARION
COUNTIES. SHOULD TRAINING OF CONVECTION EVOLVE, LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1" WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE. THE
BROAD WAA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON,
AGAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. THIS SHOULD
LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THAT. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. IN FACT, THE LATEST HREF PRODUCES 100% PROBABILITIES
FOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 85 DEGREES ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS. THESE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TOWARDS THE I-135 CORRIDOR
TO AROUND 50%.
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS/WESTERN NE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES,
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD WITHIN A 35-45 KT LLJ. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, A HIGH
PW ENVIRONMENT (2-2.25") WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED
WAA INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AND CLOUD DEBRIS. AS SUCH,
HAVE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 80S ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS TO THE
90S FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-135. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THE CORE OF THE MIDLEVEL
RIDGE APPEARS TO SLIDE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES, HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES, AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KS. THE GREATEST IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE
SLN VICINITY WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBY AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
OVERHEAD. THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BEGIN IMPACTING CNU AROUND 14Z. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10-15 KT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT GBD/RSL TO
INCLUDE A PREVAILING MENTION OF -SHRA AND VCTS. PROB30S WERE
INTRODUCED FOR THE SITES ALONG I-135 AFTER 06Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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