927
FXUS63 KICT 052039
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE, TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO TEXAS.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG WITH WEAK WINDS
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALLOWING FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST KS WITH
SOME AREAS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, INCREASING WINDS IN
OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL KS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S. ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT, ITS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WINDOW WOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON SUNDAY MORNING,
DIMINISHING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN
OUR AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SITS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL START
ON MONDAY AS CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER THAN NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, AIDING IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
SOUTHEAST KS TO THE UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS ON
TUESDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN MODEL
DISCREPANCY AFTER TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON
TEMPERATURES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND NOTABLY COOLER THAN
THE GFS ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY BUT THESE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AS WE MOVE CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WITH SOME IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE
TWO TAF SITES IMPACTED WILL BE ICT AND CNU.
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF I-35, AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
COMMENCES. THE TAF SITE MOST IMPACTED WILL BE CNU, ALTHOUGH
PATCHY FOG COULD FLIRT WITH ICT AND HUT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK
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