224
FXUS63 KICT 200833
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AREA DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO THE MID
40S IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 50 ALONG THE OK STATE LINE.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS ON TUE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUE. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
LIGHT, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ON TUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT'LL BE HARD TO RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019
VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE PERIOD. GFS
HAS A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THIS, ALTHOUGH ITS CORRESPONDING
VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE SUSPECT. RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DECREASE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL AND
KGBD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 42 26 47 40 / 0 0 0 20
HUTCHINSON 44 25 45 36 / 0 0 0 20
NEWTON 39 24 44 38 / 0 0 0 20
ELDORADO 38 24 45 40 / 0 0 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 41 27 48 42 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 40 23 38 30 / 0 0 0 20
GREAT BEND 45 25 41 32 / 0 0 0 20
SALINA 40 22 42 35 / 0 0 0 20
MCPHERSON 42 23 43 35 / 0 0 0 20
COFFEYVILLE 37 25 47 40 / 0 0 0 20
CHANUTE 34 23 45 38 / 0 0 0 30
IOLA 34 22 44 37 / 0 0 0 30
PARSONS-KPPF 36 24 46 39 / 0 0 0 20
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...PJH
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