120  
FXUS63 KICT 261138  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG ELONGATED UPPER  
LEVEL JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ALL THE WAY  
ACROSS THE COUNTRY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/COOLER AIRMASS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
MEANWHILE A COUPLE FLEET FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL RACE EAST  
ACROSS KANSAS AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.  
TODAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME  
HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A  
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT  
WHICH COULD TRY AND REACH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM  
FOR MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC THAN TODAY'S. THIS LOOKS TO  
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE SPREAD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY  
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW  
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS LINGERS OVER KANSAS.  
   
LONG TERM  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
MODELS SHOW A DEEP MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN EJECTING OUT  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND  
RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO KANSAS. THERE IS STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY ON ARRIVAL TIMING/EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH BY THE  
MODELS, AND LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY  
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE  
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAY  
LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT  
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING, LIFTING  
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM  
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND MAY SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH  
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE FIRE  
DANGER LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WHEN  
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINES WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. FRIDAY  
COULD SEE POSSIBLE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
WICHITA-KICT 54 31 53 32 / 10 0 10 20  
HUTCHINSON 52 28 51 29 / 0 10 20 30  
NEWTON 52 29 51 30 / 10 10 10 30  
ELDORADO 53 30 52 33 / 10 10 0 20  
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 31 56 33 / 20 0 0 10  
RUSSELL 50 25 47 24 / 0 20 50 40  
GREAT BEND 51 26 48 25 / 0 10 50 30  
SALINA 50 27 49 28 / 0 10 30 40  
MCPHERSON 51 27 50 28 / 0 10 20 30  
COFFEYVILLE 57 33 55 37 / 30 20 0 10  
CHANUTE 55 31 54 36 / 20 10 0 10  
IOLA 53 31 53 35 / 20 10 0 10  
PARSONS-KPPF 56 32 55 37 / 20 10 0 10  
 
 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...CDJ  
LONG TERM...CDJ  
AVIATION...ADK  
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ  
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