116
FXUS63 KICT 110535
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
- NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER STORM CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHILE A
COUPLE OF MORE SUBTLE FEATURES EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WERE ROTATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE,
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS BISECTING CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WAS VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WE SEE SOME
SUBTLE 12-HR HEIGHT RISES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP THIS EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS BEGIN
TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BUT A
CAPPING INVERSION MAY BUILD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE TO EXTREME BUOYANCY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL, 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS,
AND MAYBE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH
PWATS PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE LEADING TO EFFICIENT RAIN WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ONCE AGAIN, STORMS MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET ORGANIZED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS.
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER
THE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST KS EARLY ON THU.
THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE EVENING (OR PERHAPS SOONER). THE CAP MAY ERODE BY 19/20Z ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS TODAY SETTING THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT LINEAR MODE WILL BE FAVORED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE
CONTINUE TO BE IN A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS WITH SATURATED SOILS IN
SOUTHEAST KS SO HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEOSHO RIVER.
FRI-SAT...WE EXPECT A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON FRIDAY AS A STABLE POST-
FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED. THIS BREAK MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN. A ROBUST LLJ IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL WAA AND WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OR SOME ELEVATED STORMS
REDEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY BACKBUILDING DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON SAT WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT COULD STILL BECOME A FOCUS
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY PM BUT THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON
HOW FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT IMPACTS THIS SCENARIO.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN
IN A MEAN LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE FORCED
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA LEADING TO A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAVE TROUGH MAY EMERGE
FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE TUE-WED PERIODS AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
STORMS FINALLY DISSIPATED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO NORTH OF KICT WITH
NO STORMS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, PUSHING THROUGH
KRSL-KGBD IN THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME AND KICT-KHUT-KSLN IN THE
17Z-19Z RANGE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS AFTER 20Z, POSSIBLY AFFECTING KCNU. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING SITES. STRONG
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT MOST SITES
WITH 35-40 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO BETWEEN
35-40 MPH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
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