321  
FXUS63 KICT 211800  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE  
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SD INTO  
EASTERN CO. LIKE LAST NIGHT, REGIONAL RADAR ANIMATION SHOWS AN  
UPPER IMPULSE GENERATING SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OK.  
 
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME  
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND  
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS THE UPPER IMPULSE OVER CENTRAL OK  
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA IS ALSO SITUATED UNDER  
MODERATE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  
 
ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG  
A COLD FRONT WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO STRETCH FROM NORTH OF KDDC TO  
NEAR KRSL AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 00Z SUN. CURRENT  
THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 22Z-23Z ALONG THE  
FRONT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. WITH 2,000-3,000J/KG OF CAPE  
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE, HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF  
BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A COUPLE TORNADOES WITHIN A FEW HOURS  
OF INITIATION IF THE SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.  
SO WILL MESSAGE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WILL  
BE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING, BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY  
CONGEALS INTO AN MCS AND PUSHES INTO EASTERN KS.  
 
A SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER  
TONIGHT AS VERY IMPRESSIVE 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS OUT  
OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KS. ECMWF-GFS-NAM  
AGREE WELL ON THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING TO IMPACT  
SOUTHEAST KS GENERALLY AROUND OR AFTER 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING  
AFTER 12Z. WE ARE LOOKING AT PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY GREATER  
THAN 2.25" WHICH IS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH THE AREA OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, FEEL THAT RAINFALL  
RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.  
WITH THIS, WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO  
INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST KS.  
 
BY 15Z SUN, UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH FAR SOUTHEAST KS STILL IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE  
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL TO  
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 21Z SUN, MAJORITY OF  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD  
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE  
OVER THE AREA FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON, KEEPING RAIN OUT OF THE  
FORECAST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
BY TUE, ECMWF AND GFS AGREE WELL ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKING  
SOUTH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TONIGHT'S RUNS ARE MUCH LESS  
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S RUNS OF THE  
ECMWF AND GFS. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH, THERE IS ALSO GOOD  
AGREEMENT IN SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW  
A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WED. THE NEXT GOOD RAIN  
CHANCES WILL COME AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS  
FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN IN THE  
THU-FRI TIME FRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KS AND KCNU  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AWAY  
FROM THE AREA AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER  
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS OVER CENTRAL  
OK IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
MEANWHILE, VFR AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS CENTRAL  
KS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL  
VEER AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS  
AFTER 3-5 PM ACROSS OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES POSSIBLY IMPACTING  
KRSL, KGBD AND KSLN INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD STORM  
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA WITH REDUCED  
FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED  
ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN THE 11Z-14Z TIMEFRAME ON SUNDAY SPREADING  
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS  
MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT MAY  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 84 69 78 57 / 40 60 50 10  
HUTCHINSON 86 66 78 55 / 40 60 50 0  
NEWTON 82 68 77 55 / 30 80 60 10  
ELDORADO 80 70 77 56 / 30 90 60 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 70 79 58 / 30 70 70 10  
RUSSELL 87 61 76 55 / 60 70 40 0  
GREAT BEND 88 62 76 54 / 60 80 40 0  
SALINA 86 66 76 55 / 60 80 40 0  
MCPHERSON 84 67 75 54 / 40 80 50 0  
COFFEYVILLE 82 72 79 61 / 60 70 90 30  
CHANUTE 80 72 78 58 / 80 90 90 30  
IOLA 79 71 77 58 / 80 90 90 30  
PARSONS-KPPF 80 71 79 60 / 70 80 90 30  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RBL  
LONG TERM...RBL  
AVIATION...MWM  
 
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