232
FXUS63 KICT 162339
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF
WARM-UP ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. UPPER RIDGING IS STARTING TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH MOST OF OUR AREA INTO OKLAHOMA THOUGH HAS STALLED OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY
WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS ARE
RANGING FROM THE 80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE 90S IN SOUTHERN KS. AS WE
MOVE INTO TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KS NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE/HIGHER PWAT AXIS WILL BE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN KS IN THE LOWER 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE
ROCKIES, ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO ONTARIO AND THE GREAT
LAKES AREA.
FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL START SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE PLAINS, ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN AS ABOVE
NORMAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 90S WITH MOST AREAS NEAR 100. AS WE REMAIN IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE FOR SLIGHT CHANCES TO CLIP
THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS
MOVING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO HAVE
PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF KANSAS WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE IN
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE
TUESDAYS WARMER TEMPERATURES SHORT-LIVED AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S IN CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER 90S IN SOUTHERN KS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, SO TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR APPEAR
LIKELY ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING ICT AND MAYBE HUT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SURROUNDING THE LONGEVITY AND
TIMING OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SO FOR NOW WE
COVERED THE THREAT WITH A PROB30 -SHRA. WILL DIAGNOSE FURTHER
FOR 06Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, IMPACTING
MAINLY THE CNU TAF.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK
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