443  
FXUS63 KICT 210845  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
A COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE STATE AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO  
THE EAST TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING  
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING AND THE PRECIPITATION FIELD EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/NMM/ARW APPEAR TO HAVE  
INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING AND PUSH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE  
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR GETTING THE BULK  
THE APPRECIABLE RAIN DURING THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS  
AND ECMWF AS WELL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER DOES NOT BRING IN MUCH IF  
ANY RAIN. WHAT ALL THESE MODELS DO INDICATE IS THE FRONT WILL STALL  
BRIEFLY IN THE CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME CONSISTENT  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS  
STALL WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REACH  
THE UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID  
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID  
100S FOR ONE MORE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THIS  
POSSIBILITY. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS DENSER THAN EXPECTED,  
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY.  
 
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TODAY, THE MID LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL COME INTO THE PHASE WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE THE NEEDED KICK TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS PROGRESSION  
WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FOCUS TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR DECENT  
RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE  
RATES ARE PALTRY AT BEST WHICH PRECLUDES WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER  
OVER THE BULK OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR IS BETTER IN  
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH 60 MPH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT  
SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS  
AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. PW  
VALUES ARE A CONCERN AS THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH  
RANGE. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A  
RESULT, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY  
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY  
THREAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE  
TURNPIKE, FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS TO PICK UP SOME  
MORE. THIS WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST FLOODING THREAT EAST OF THE  
TURNPIKE DURING THE NIGHT.  
 
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION  
EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND BRING CAA TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE REMAINDER  
OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUITE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
METZGER  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019  
 
THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK  
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE  
SOUTH ALLOWING WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL  
RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES FOR  
THE EXTENDED ARE LIMITED AT BEST WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN  
LOOKING TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 
METZGER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE  
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE  
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUE SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF  
THE FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU  
BASES/CIGS IS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PREVAILING MVFR  
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 97 66 83 62 / 30 50 20 0  
HUTCHINSON 93 64 83 60 / 30 60 10 0  
NEWTON 94 66 82 60 / 30 60 10 0  
ELDORADO 95 67 82 61 / 30 70 20 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 70 83 62 / 20 60 20 0  
RUSSELL 85 60 83 57 / 40 40 0 0  
GREAT BEND 87 61 83 57 / 30 40 10 0  
SALINA 90 64 81 59 / 30 60 10 0  
MCPHERSON 91 64 82 59 / 30 60 10 0  
COFFEYVILLE 96 73 83 64 / 10 90 40 0  
CHANUTE 95 71 83 62 / 10 80 30 0  
IOLA 95 70 82 62 / 20 80 30 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 96 72 83 63 / 10 80 40 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-  
069>072-083-091>096-098>100.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ELM  
LONG TERM...ELM  
AVIATION...KED  
 
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