541
FXUS63 KICT 191959
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
WILL GET WET THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO,
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE
TWO MAIN VORT LOBES ARE SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH LAST NIGHT IS NOW LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST OK.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS
TODAY AROUND 25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY'S READINGS! THIS
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN PLACE FOR TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WED, UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN WITH A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY STARTING TO DIG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
ROGUE SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO WED, THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WED.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL START TO WASH
OUT ON WED.
BY WED NIGHT, SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN AND AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY WILL START TO
LIFT OUT OF SOUTHWEST TX. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF THE REGION IN
AN AREA OF DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. WE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STARTING WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ON THU. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL BE THU EVENING FOR THE FLINT HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN PRECIP ON FRI AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OUT AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER FOR SAT, YET ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATION IS SET TO SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THROUGH SAT EVENING. THEN ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN LIFT OUT OF
SOUTHWEST TX AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO CLOSE THIS
LOW OFF AND LIFT IT NORTH, SPREADING WIDESPREAD PRECIP INTO MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL REMAIN FOR BOTH WED
AND THU, AS WE GET BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO EXIT KANSAS TO THE EAST HOWEVER
MVFR CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN AND IMPACT KCNU/KICT WITH
BRIEF MOMENTS OF IFR CIGS FOR KCNU. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BUT SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS
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