946
FXUS63 KICT 130852
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
252 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK
WITH THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
CURRENTLY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, THOUGH, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ASCENT IS LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. TO OUR WEST WHERE THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
LIFT, WE ARE SEEING AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY GIVING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS LOW CHANCES (20-30%) OF SEEING VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 3
MILES AROUND DAYBREAK DUE TO FOG/DRIZZLE. CAMS ARE ALSO KEEPING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF DENSE FOG JUST THE THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING
AS DRIZZLE/DENSE FOG IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET TO
ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AND BY MID-
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVING, TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK. DUE TO
THE EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR CENTRAL KANSAS, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE AND WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH, WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THEN, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN OF
LATE, THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO OUR EAST AND THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLEETING.
AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, STOUT RIDGING AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S. WARMER AND MORE MILD WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES
THE PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF AGREEMENT ACROSS MODELS. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERALL, WE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. TO THIS POINT, THESE HAVE REMAINED
JUST NORTH OF ICT. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE TENDS TO HOLD THESE CIGS
JUST NORTH OF ICT THROUGH 12Z OR SO. THESE CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR FOG AND/OR
DRIZZLE AT MAINLY RSL AND GBD AFTER 08Z THROUGH MIDDAY.
MAINTAINED 6SM FOR NOW BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT 10-15 KT BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...BRF
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