592
FXUS63 KICT 212343
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT PLUNGING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING; WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS -10 TO -20
- ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT;
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LONGWAVE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHUNT THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TO THE LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING, YIELDING LIGHT
WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 40S BY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS CONTINUES TO BE THE ARRIVAL OF
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POISED TO EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PLUNGING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
CENTRAL KS TO THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. FACTORING IN A NORTHERN
BREEZE UP TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -15.
THE COLD PLUNGE WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS
NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. FRIDAY'S PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 20 DEGREES RANGE FROM NEAR 50% ALONG
THE OK BORDER TO NEAR 100% ALONG I-70. IN FACT, PROBABILITIES REMAIN
GREATER THAN 70% ACROSS CENTRAL KS FOR FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING LESS THAN 10 DEGREES. THE PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING LESS THAN 10 DEGREES EXPAND AREAWIDE TO 70-
100% FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY WITH A 70-100% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 20
DEGREES. IN REGARDS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, NBM PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM
40-70% FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 0 DEGREES SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. FACTORING IN THE CONTINUED NORTH WIND WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -20 EACH MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS
FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE APPROACH OF A WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL LONG, VEERING HODOGRAPHS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS SUGGESTING INCREASING LOW AND MIDLEVEL WAA. AN
IMPRESSIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED OF DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 25-35 DEGREES MAY DELAY SNOW ONSET TIMES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING WAA WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
EXPANSION OF SNOWFALL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WETBULB
SATURATION OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
STRENGTHEN A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST US LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL
EXPAND SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLED JET PATTERN TO EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCING FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHEAST
OK, PLACING CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
EXIT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ENDING SNOWFALL WITH ITS
PROGRESSION.
NOW FOR THE MAIN QUESTION, HOW MUCH SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED? THIS
PARTICULAR SETUP IS QUITE UNIQUE WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS.
THAT BEING SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (FROM 1-4KM)
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS. LATEST NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED GREATER FOR SNOW-TO-LIQUID NOW RANGING FROM 17-20:1.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH REGARDS TO QPF AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS ALIGNED WITH AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS RECEIVING THE GREATEST QPF. NBM 25-75TH QPF
SPREAD RANGE FROM 0.4-0.8" ACROSS SOUTHERN KS TO ROUGHLY 0.3-0.6"
ALONG I-70. FACTORING IN THESE FAVORABLE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS HAS
RESULTED IN A NOTABLE UPTICK IN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS ARE NOW FORECAST TO RECEIVE 5 TO 10" WITH A DECREASE IN
TOTALS AS YOU APPROACH I-70. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA EXCEEDANCE EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 56
(BARTON TO CHASE COUNTIES) AND SOUTH. AS SUCH, THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE. A
FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPANSION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR 2. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST REFINEMENTS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WE MOVE
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY REMAINING LIGHT. SOME PERIODIC CIRRUS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ047-050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM
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