086  
FXUS63 KICT 061058  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY  
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO, STORMS MAY POSE A  
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.  
 
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  
 
- DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTERING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING:  
 
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK WILL  
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, EXITING FAR  
SOUTHEAST KS A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE  
STORMS WILL REMAIN FROM NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER ON SOUTH, WHERE BEST  
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDE ON  
THE NOSE OF A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET. FURTHERMORE, TRAINING CELLS WILL  
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER ON SOUTH, WHERE  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE  
ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF  
ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 54/400, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL  
MEANINGFUL, POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 0.50" TO 0.75". THESE SOMEWHAT  
LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD  
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING  
IS POSSIBLE.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY:  
 
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY, AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-  
NORTHWEST. SIMILAR TO RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE WET  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH OVER  
SOUTHERN KS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY ADD KINGMAN COUNTY TO THE  
WATCH. ADDITIONALLY, A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND  
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER  
FAR SOUTHERN KS, BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA.  
 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY  
 
ONE FINAL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES  
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AREAWIDE, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH  
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,  
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STAY TUNED AS WE  
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:  
 
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA.  
THEREAFTER, RETURNING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS QUITE WEAK, SO AT  
FIRST GLANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025  
 
MVFR/IFR CIGS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY  
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO  
THAT OF THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH  
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACT BEING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST  
KS. AS SUCH, INTRODUCED A PROB30 AFTER 06Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR  
SLN AND RSL, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOWEST.  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ082-091>093-  
098>100.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ADK  
AVIATION...JWK  
 
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