420  
FXUS63 KICT 312242  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
542 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
WARM AND BREEZY (SUMMER TYPE PATTERN) LOOKS LIKE THE STORY FOR THE  
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A FEW  
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
OVERNIGHT, WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO  
NEB. INCREASING WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP ANY  
SHOWERS FROM FORMING OVER NORTHERN KS OR CENTRAL KS.  
 
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, EXPECT SUNNY WARM AND BREEZY  
CONDITIONS. THE WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL  
LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY, WITH AREAS WEST  
OF I-135 CLIMBING INTO THE THE LOWER 90S.  
 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ON  
TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS AGAIN.  
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE TO CLIMB INTO THE  
LOWER 90S BY TUE AFTERNOON. ONE CAVEAT, FOR TUE AFTERNOON, IS THE  
ECMWF AND THE GFS ALSO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN TX, MAY  
MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK,  
REACHING POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS OK BY TUE AFTERNOON. LIFT FROM  
THIS FEATURE MAY ENOUGH TO AID IN DIURNAL STORM CHANCES FOR TUE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. SO COULD SEE POPS  
INTRODUCED WITH LATER FORECASTS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NOW LOOKS  
LIKE THE MODEL BLENDS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND KEEPING  
THIS FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTH TX, WHICH WOULD KEEP CHANCES  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
KETCHAM  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR  
WED/THU, AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES  
DIFFLUENT OVER EASTERN KS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO  
DROP SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY WED AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND  
BECOMES UNCAPPED BY WED AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS WITH THIS CONVECTION, AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN  
PLACE, WITH ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS.  
 
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX  
DEVELOPING LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS NW KS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME,  
WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY ON THU MORNING. POPS MAY  
NEED TO BE BEEFED UP SOME FOR LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU IF THIS  
SIGNAL CONTINUES.  
 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THROUGH  
OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THU NIGHT. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE IN BLOWING  
UP LOTS OF SCATTERED QPF, WHILE THE ECMWF ISNT AS BULLISH. FOR NOW  
THE MODEL BLEND IS LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH POPS CONFINED TO  
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE  
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE SUMMER LIKE  
MAX TEMPS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.  
 
KETCHAM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.  
RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG  
WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. A  
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION  
SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME THIN  
CIRRUS AT TIMES.  
 
KED  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 63 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 63 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 62 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 62 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 63 87 65 89 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 65 92 65 94 / 10 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 64 92 65 94 / 10 0 0 0  
SALINA 65 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 64 89 65 90 / 10 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 62 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 62 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0  
IOLA 63 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 62 83 63 86 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KETCHAM  
LONG TERM...KETCHAM  
AVIATION...KED  
 
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