575
FXUS63 KICT 170726
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON; NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON; NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED
- TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING, LONGWAVE, MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. A CUTOFF MIDLEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX, PRODUCING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS
THURSDAY QUICKLY ENDED WITH SUNSET. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. A RINSE
AND REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES WILL BE MET BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE AND WITHIN THE PW AXIS (1.8-2"). SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT, SUPPORTING PULSE
CONVECTION WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
UPON SUNSET, THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE.
TRANSITIONING INTO SATURDAY, THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S. THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TROPIC-LIKE WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 2". MINIMAL MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION BY AFTERNOON MAY
PROMOTE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DEAMPLIFY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY-TUESDAY. SREF/EPS/GEFS MEAN
850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4-8 C
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
100 DEGREES. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SHUNTING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100 (HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105), WHEREAS POST-FRONTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE. MID TO LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO
THE AREA. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR FRI
AFTERNOON.
JUST LIKE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATED
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO FOR NOW, WILL JUST RUN WITH VCSH AT KCNU
AND LEAVE OUT AT REMAINING SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
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