532
FXUS63 KICT 221040
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED REST THIS
WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY
PERIOD WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A GRADUAL EROSION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONG THE PERIPHERAL OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WHICH LOOKS TO BE
MORE TRANSIENT. THIS TRANSIENT BEHAVIOR COULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OR KEEP IT MORE BRIEF. THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER WITH LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS.
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
NEAR THE BAJA REGION MOVING NORTH. STILL SEEING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
FROM THE MODELS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS WED-THU AS LEAD
SHORT WAVE NEAR THE BAJA MIGRATES NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/LIFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD.
PERIODIC ON/OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY KEEPS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VERY LOW
THIS PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTING EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SATURDAY COULD EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT
UPTICK FOR INSTABILITY LEVELS BUT SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LOW. LONGER RANGE MODELS/GEFS ENSEMBLES
ARE SUGGESTING A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER WAVE RACING EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
...ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LOW CLOUDS IN IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND SKIES SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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