441
FXUS63 KICT 161751
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SAT MORNING.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MUCH COLDER AIR WAS ARRIVING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
STRONG H85 CAA UNDERWAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE LOWER 50S IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ROBUST RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO AREAS OF FROST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE FREEZE WATCH WAS EXPANDED
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 60S WHILE ANOTHER
DAY OF UPPER 50S IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS.
A STABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SW
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS LINGERING. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. SOME LOW POPS WERE
MAINTAINED LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RIDGE OVER THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING IN THE 30-35KT RANGE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND ARE STILL
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL
STAY AT VFR LEVELS BEFORE CLEARING OUT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-082.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-091>095-098.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...RBL
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