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FXUS63 KICT 050723
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
- DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER LATE
NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK (JULY 12TH OR 13TH AND
BEYOND).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FOG:
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH, LIGHT WINDS, AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 BEFORE ABOUT 9 AM. BETTER CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OVER NORTHEAST
KS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135/HIGHWAY 81. A FEW CAM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
FAIRLY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS, SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN FORM, MARGINALLY SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT--TUESDAY NIGHT...BUILDING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY--SATURDAY...AS WE HEAD INTO MID-LATE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME AS A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL ZONE TO OOZE SOUTH
INTO MID-AMERICA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH ROUGHLY FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES:
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S, AND AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROBABLY SUPPORT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS WE TAKE A LOOK AHEAD TO THE WEEK OF JULY 13TH, DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE EARLY THIS MORNING THAT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP, THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING THEN EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY PICK UP WITH
TERMINAL SITES STAYING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC
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