086
FXUS63 KICT 061058
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXITING SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO, STORMS MAY POSE A
MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTERING BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING:
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING, EXITING FAR
SOUTHEAST KS A FEW HOURS PAST SUNRISE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN FROM NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER ON SOUTH, WHERE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDE ON
THE NOSE OF A STOUT LOW-LEVEL JET. FURTHERMORE, TRAINING CELLS WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER ON SOUTH, WHERE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE
ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. FURTHER NORTH ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF
ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 54/400, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT STILL
MEANINGFUL, POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 0.50" TO 0.75". THESE SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY:
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. SIMILAR TO RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH OVER
SOUTHERN KS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY ADD KINGMAN COUNTY TO THE
WATCH. ADDITIONALLY, A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHERN KS, BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
ONE FINAL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AREAWIDE, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DRIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STAY TUNED AS WE
REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA.
THEREAFTER, RETURNING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS QUITE WEAK, SO AT
FIRST GLANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
MVFR/IFR CIGS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
THAT OF THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACT BEING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS. AS SUCH, INTRODUCED A PROB30 AFTER 06Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
SLN AND RSL, WHERE CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOWEST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ082-091>093-
098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
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