661
FXUS63 KICT 210832
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
232 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
TURNING COLDER.
- A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WED INTO
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
OUR STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THE COOL START TO THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON ONLY
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH. LEE
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL HELP TO BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER
THIS WARMER AIR WON'T LAST LONG AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS WE TRANSITION TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS
FLOW WITH VARYING TIMING AND STRENGTH. WHAT WE CAN SAY FOR CERTAIN
IS NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT REMAINS TOO FAR OUT TO NARROW DOWN
THE TIMING. BUT BASED ON THE COOLER TEMPERATURES A WINTRY MIX
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE (20-30%) AROUND THANKSGIVING SO IF YOU
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS MAKE SURE TO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...ADK
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