513
FXUS63 KICT 181120
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE MAIN THEME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FOR UPPER RIDGING
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH CONTINUED WARMING THROUGH SATURDAY. IT'S VERY LIKELY THAT
WE WILL BREAK A FEW MAX TEMP RECORDS ON FRIDAY, SINCE THEY ARE
ALL IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. EVEN THOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY, MAX TEMP RECORDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RUSSELL, ARE ALL IN THE 90S. SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK MOST
OF THOSE.
THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN SK/MB BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KS SUNDAY
MORNING. SO THERE'S A CHANCE MUCH OF FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
KS COULD STILL GET FAIRLY WARM SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, BUT STILL ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. AFTER MONDAY, WE LOOK TO GET BACK INTO A WARMING TREND.
HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTION
AFTER MONDAY, WITH THE ECMWF QUICKLY BRINGING BACK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ONCE WE GET BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH,
FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THEY
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ONLY SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
STILL LOOKING FOR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL KS, MAINLY DUE TO LOW RH'S, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER AND AREA WIDE ON SUNDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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