176
FXUS63 KICT 190441
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1041 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MINIMAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HIGH
FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONGSIDE MIXING UP TO A
STRONG LLJ CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-60+ MPH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MIXING WEAKENS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID-20S THANKS TO
COOLER AIR USHERED IN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. A SECOND SHORTWAVE RACING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SHUNT AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL WORK TO
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE MORE THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROMOTE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING COLUMN
THICKNESSES WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH THESE WINDS TO ALLOW FOR
THE RETURN OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THIS SECOND FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND KEEP HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS, WHILE SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL SEE
VALUES APPROACHING THE LOW 60S.
FOLLOWING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY, MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGHLIGHTS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY
WEATHER AND HIGHS IN THE 60S BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
EXPECTED, IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE A
GOOD 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL SITES AND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 23Z
WITH SPEEDS RUNNING 10-15 KT THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-60+ MPH WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THESE WILL
COMBINE WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20-30% TO PRODUCE EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL.
STOUT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 25-30% RANGE, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNSET.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
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