049
FXUS63 KICT 180016
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
616 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH LIKELY ALONG I-70, WITH
GUSTS 50-55 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
- STRONG WINDS WILL ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ON
THURSDAY WITH EXTREME VALUES LIKELY. ANY FIRE THAT STARTS
THURSDAY WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VORT MAX TRACKING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A MUCH
WEAKER UPPER IMPULSE FORM NORTHERN MEX INTO SOUTHEAST TX. AT
THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING HAS STARTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY TRACKING EAST AND BY
EARLY THU MORNING WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF UPTICK IN NW WINDS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS AROUND 09Z WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THESE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL ONLY LAST
AN HOUR OR TWO WITH THE MAIN SHOW STILL A FEW HOURS OFF.
BY 15Z, DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH NORTHWEST KS. 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH DOES LEAD
TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER CENTRAL
KS. GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CENTRAL KS STARTING AROUND
15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH, 50-55
MPH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
THIS COULD MAKE DRIVING VERY DANGEROUS ALONG I-70, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF SALINA.
AS FAR AS HEADLINES CHANGES, FLIPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A
WARNING AND EXPANDED EAST. ALSO PULLED IT BACK TO 08Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE BRIEF INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO FLIPPED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE AND BY THU EVENING, SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL GET THE PLAINS
BACK INTO SOME RETURN FLOW FOR FRI WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. FOR
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
SOUTHERN SK/MB AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET RIGHT BACK INTO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO START THE WORK
WEEK, WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING BUILDING-IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS WITH IMPACTS TO MAINLY ICT AND
CNU. THESE CIGS WILL PERSIST 03-05Z. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER 01-03Z AS A 50-55 KT LLJ NEAR 1.4 KFT
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, ENDING THE LLWS POTENTIAL WHILE WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
ARE EXPECTED FROM 09-13Z. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS, NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER 15-16Z UP TO 55 KT.
THESE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE NEAR 00Z FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
EXTREME FIRE DANGER LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE THU MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE LIKELY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
HIGHER SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL KS. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE WITH THE LOWER END OF THESE
VALUES FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135. ANY FIRES THAT START ON THURSDAY
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CONTROL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.
FOR FRIDAY, WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 30% RANGE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE
WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
FIRE WEATHER...BRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page