866
FXUS63 KICT 061121
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES SHIFTING WEST BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
- WARM-UP WILL START THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE STRETCHING
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH MON NIGHT IS
SITUATED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO WEST TX.
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN THAT IS AFFECTING THE AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K SURFACE WHICH IS GENERALLY
IN THE 725-780MB RANGE. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX DIVING SOUTH ACROSS
CO TODAY, IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. PRECIP IN THIS AREA WILL ALSO
BE AIDED BY PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW TODAY. SO CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, PUSHING THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SETUP OVER THE PLAINS FOR THU WITH SOME
WEAK UPPER ENERGY SET TO TRACK OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU EVENING, WITH ANY PRECIP IT
GENERATES EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. WE LOOK TO STAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ROBUST
UPPER WAVE SET TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY SAT
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUN MORNING.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY TO STAY IN THE 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD
VALUES AS THEY SINK INTO THE 30S. MOST RECORD LOWS THU MORNING
ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S, WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE ARE
FORECASTING. SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. WE WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOW 70S FOR THU WITH WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 80S BY SAT. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SOME SHOWERS THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH LOWER CEILINGS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
BEEN STEADILY ON THE DECREASE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
MAINLY JUST PARTS OF CENTRAL KS STILL SEEING SHOWERS. CENTRAL KS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SHIFTING TO WESTERN KS BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST
SITES TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL-KGBD, WHICH MAY SEE A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR LEVELS THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL SITES WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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