242
FXUS63 KICT 260437
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG OVER SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY TUE
MORNING. WE LOOK TO BE RADIATING OUT QUICKLY AFTER THE CLOUDS MOVE
OUT AND WINDS GO LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING
AT DENSE FOG AND ANY FOG THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE FAIRY SHALLOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
A COMPACT POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS. LATEST HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING, GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF GREAT BEND TO SALINA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW, BUT THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A LOW POP FOR A
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT, A FEW SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SUSPECT MOST OF THIS LIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WARM-UP BEGINS TUESDAY, WITH DEEPENING MIXING AND INCREASING
SOLAR INSOLATION SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING THE 60S. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING COMMENCES.
DEEPENING MIXING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS WILL
SUPPORT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S
LIKELY. GIVEN EXACTLY WHERE THE THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP AND AMOUNT
OF SOLAR INSOLATION, COULD EVEN SEE READINGS CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING. MAY INITIALLY SEE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT LACK OF APPRECIABLE LIFT AMIDST MARGINAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY CAPPED. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES MAY ARRIVE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF
THE I-135 CORRIDOR, AS 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES
AHEAD OF A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-
ALL, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH IF THE
CAP CAN BE BREACHED, A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. SUSPECT THE GFS IS OVERDOING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOME.
KLEINSASSER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS INTERESTING
FROM A THUNDERSTORM STANDPOINT, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH A POTENT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES REMAIN IN QUESTION, ALONG WITH THE QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THE
RELATIVELY STRONG FORCING AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
IN CONCERT WITH AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SUSPECT THE GFS
IS ONCE AGAIN A BIT TOO BULLISH WITH MOISTURE QUALITY RETURNING
NORTH AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BEST
STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL BE MAINLY
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS, WITH CHANCES SHIFTING TO MAINLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. STAY
TUNED, AS DETAILS BECOME BETTER REFINED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S. SATURDAY LOOKS
PARTICULARLY CHILLY DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND STOUT NORTH
WINDS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING IS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, AS SKIES CLEAR AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
KLEINSASSER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF
THEM EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. IF WE DO SEE SOME, FEEL
THAT IT WILL NOT BE DENSE AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. THE TWO
SITES WE HAVE THE MOST CONFIDENCE IN IS KCNU, WHERE MOISTURE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND KHUT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH AREAS WEST OF I-135 SEEING GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2019
STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
LOW-END VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SOLID VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MARGINAL RH
VALUES SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD LOWER SOME THURSDAY-
FRIDAY, DUE TO INCREASED RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
WINDS. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
VAUGHAN/KLEINSASSER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 40 64 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 38 65 48 74 / 10 0 0 10
NEWTON 39 63 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 39 64 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 39 64 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 39 67 51 78 / 20 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 38 65 50 77 / 20 0 0 10
SALINA 39 66 50 76 / 10 10 0 0
MCPHERSON 38 65 48 74 / 10 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 40 63 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 39 62 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 38 62 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 39 63 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RM
FIRE WEATHER...TAV/ADK
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