102
FXUS63 KICT 230604
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
104 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTENSE LINE OF STORMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT; HOWEVER
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY COULD PRESENT A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD
PRESENT SOME CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A PSUEDO-POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
LOCATIONS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 80S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AND COOL AIRMASS SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS THE REGION, MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PLAINS, AND
NO NIGHTTIME/OVERNIGHT MCS IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT! WITH NORTHEAST
TO EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUING TO
REINFORCE THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
THE WARM, SOUPY, HUMID AIRMASS WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SURGE NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION. A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS ARE BEING PRESENTED FROM THE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE THIS MORNING, AND THEY ALL HAVE SOME SUPPORT WHICH IS
MAKING THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS EXTREMELY TRICKY AND
UNCERTAIN.
SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY AND DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERS SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE MCS
MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF AN INTENSE MCS IMPACTING AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA IS RATHER HIGH, BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS STILL IN QUESTION. LIKE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE
ENVIRONMENT, REGARDLESS OF THE TIME OF DAY, WILL BE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF AN INTENSE MCS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE BRIEF QLCS TORNADOES. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM VARIOUS CAMS
EXPLICITLY SHOW 70-90 MPH WIND GUSTS AS THIS MCS TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY 2000-4000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE, 0-6 KM SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS, AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REGARDLESS OF THE TIME OF DAY.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS, A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO SETTLE IN; HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME INSTABILITY COULD SNEAK BACK NORTHWARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND ANOTHER MCS MAY ATTEMPT TO TRACK ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND..
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONLY INCREASES HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERNS REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF GLOBAL
MID RANGE MODELS SEEMS TO BE ZEROING IN ON STORMS MOST LIKELY
OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY, INCLUDING EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION, IS
STILL IN QUESTION. GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL, THE MOST
OBVIOUS THREAT WILL BE RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.8" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN DRIVING THIS VERY ACTIVE STRETCH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS. GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IS LIKELY A LITTLE ON THE HOT SIDE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LINGER FROM ALL OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID, EVEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COULD
PRESENT HEAT CONCERNS IF DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THIS TAF CYCLE HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE DUE TO NUMEROUS
UNCERTAINTIES IN REGARDS TO LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHAT IS CERTAIN, IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. NOW THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A COMPLEX
OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL BE TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS INTO THE REGION
AFTER DAYBREAK.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT WHERE LOW CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK AS WELL BUT GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT AT
LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON IF THE BETTER MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION OR
IF IT IS SCOURED OUT BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION, HAVE LEFT ANY
PRECIPITATION MENTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
ALL TAF SITES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...WI
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