675
FXUS63 KICT 251906
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HEAT ON THURSDAY DRIVING EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
- A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THURSDAY EVENING.
- MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMUP SUN-TUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A SPRAWLING MID/UPPER RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EXTENDING IN FAR WEST TEXAS. AS THIS MID/UPPER RIDGE SHEARS
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY, RECORD HEAT WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A PREFONTRAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS IN OUR
CENTRAL KS COUNTIES BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR.
HIGHER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GIVEN RECORD HEAT AND GUSTY WINDS, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION BUT WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT IMPROVES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS SOUTHERN KS,
ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. COOLER MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD WHERE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AND NO WIND HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.
FRI-SAT...THE HIGHEST WINDS SPEEDS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT PROGGED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY. SEASONABLY COOL AIR IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S/AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER MISSOURI FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING AND THIS IS
WHERE THE MORE ROBUST RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KS, LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MANY AREAS.
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR CENTRAL KS WHILE WIDESPREAD MID
AND UPPER 80S ARE ANTICIPATED BY MON-TUE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS
WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 OR 25 MPH AT TIMES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT KRSL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH BREEZY WINDS RESULTING IN EXTREME FIRE
DANGER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IMPACTING CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE
AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EACH AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER ON FRIDAY
WHILE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN ON SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THURSDAY (3/26):
WICHITA: FORECAST - 95, RECORD - 83 (1918) RUSSELL: FORECAST -
89, RECORD - 90 (1989) SALINA: FORECAST - 93, RECORD - 86 (1910)
CHANUTE: FORECAST - 93, RECORD - 85 (1918)
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...AMD
CLIMATE...AMD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page