422
FXUS63 KICT 071041
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
AN MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CLUSTER OF OTHER STORMS HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS NOW MAY BE REINFORCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LATER IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE CURRENT PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING POPS
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105+ RANGE ONCE
AGAIN AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. FURTHER
NORTH, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT LOW
LEVEL POOLING OF DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RESULT IN A HUMID DAY WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WERE REMOVED. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE
HEAT HEADLINE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
SAT...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 88 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE, WARMEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 RETURNING TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HEAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 98-103 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BREAKING
DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA THROUGH TUE WHILE
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. SOME
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 100 74 94 71 / 40 30 10 10
HUTCHINSON 99 72 93 70 / 50 30 10 0
NEWTON 98 74 92 70 / 40 30 10 0
ELDORADO 98 74 92 70 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 103 76 94 72 / 20 20 10 10
RUSSELL 92 70 92 68 / 60 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 94 71 92 69 / 60 20 0 10
SALINA 95 72 92 70 / 60 20 10 0
MCPHERSON 96 71 92 70 / 50 30 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 103 78 97 73 / 20 30 10 10
CHANUTE 101 78 94 72 / 20 30 10 10
IOLA 100 76 92 71 / 20 30 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 101 78 97 73 / 20 30 10 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-
053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
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