581
FXUS63 KICT 260540
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY-FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- PATTERN CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO START THIS WEEKEND AND LAST
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, AHEAD
OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, AND WITHIN A ZONE OF MODEST 850-700MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOWER-END SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH
WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS CLOSER TO THE RICHER
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WE HEAD INTO MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
STRONG/FAT INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
WEAK/MODEST MID-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW HP SUPERCELLS
AND/OR HP SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DECENT
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY COULD FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. STORM MOTIONS LOOK TO BE EAST TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS TRENDS, THINKING NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST OK HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE
SUPERCELLS BEFORE ABOUT 8 PM, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND
TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH TIME AS
IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH, CONTINUED DEEP LIFT IN VICINITY OF A
SHARPENING SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL UPTICK
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ROUGHLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 56
CORRIDOR, WITH STORM MOTIONS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE, SO THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
LATE TONIGHT.
THESE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND
TONIGHT COUPLED WITH VERY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD SUPPORT
POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF ROUGHLY
THE HIGHWAY 56 CORRIDOR. BASED ON SOME OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALIZED 3-5+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. AMOUNTS LIKE THIS
WOULD FAVOR FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY
WET SOILS ACROSS THE REGION. HENCE, WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...COULD HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
FRIDAY IN VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF I-135. IN ALL
INSTANCES, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BUILDING UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT A
PATTERN CHANGE, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES/WIND:
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN CHANGE, WITH
INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
PROGGED DEWPOINTS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES, THINKING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF 100-105+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY. WE WILL
BE MONITORING FOR ANY POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ALTHOUGH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR STORMS AS
WELL. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPANDING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL OF OUR TAF
SITES. THESE LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ050>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...WI
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