465  
FXUS63 KICT 181727  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
1227 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CONTINUED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY, GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED  
FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE  
STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.  
 
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT  
WEEK WITH PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. A HANDFUL OF STRONG  
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A DECENT COOL DOWN BY TUESDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
PRECIPITATION:  
 
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE  
WEST WILL SUPPORT OFF-AND-ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AREAWIDE TODAY, AND OVER  
MOSTLY EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONG  
FORCING IN CONCERT WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, STEEPENING LAPSE  
RATES, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 25-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS WELL, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED FLOODING  
CONCERNS. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH  
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHILE THERE REMAINS  
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PROGRESS OVER THE  
REGION WITHIN PROGRESSIVE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COMBINATION  
OF FORECAST BUOYANCY/SHEAR SUGGESTS A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
PER DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS, COULD EVEN BE LOOKING AT SOME STEADY  
STRATIFORM RAINFALL PERIODICALLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH  
A DEEP SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER MID-AMERICA.  
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STAY  
TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
TEMPERATURES:  
 
A COOL DOWN INTO MOSTLY THE 70S IS EXPECTED TODAY, DUE TO INCREASED  
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND DECREASED ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.  
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET BACK CLOSER TO  
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 80S, AS BOTH THICKNESS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW  
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
BY TUESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, A SLOW-MOVING  
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER MID-AMERICA AND AN  
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A DECENT COOL DOWN INTO  
AT LEAST THE 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
HOWEVER, THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
60S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE  
TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE  
EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE  
BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KS, SO  
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT SLN AT THIS TIME.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE AT ALL SITES  
AFTER 00Z. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOLID CHANCES FOR MVFR  
VISIBILITIES IN CENTRAL KS AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO LOW TEMP/DEW  
SPREAD. AS SUCH, ALSO DECIDED TO INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP AT SLN  
AROUND 10-13Z TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. COULD SEE EXPANSION TO OTHER SITES,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MORE MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...ADK  
AVIATION...JWK  
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