598
FXUS63 KICT 200758
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING LIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. SEVERE STORMS AND
FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN MO
THROUGH CENTRAL KS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET.
FRONT BISECTING KS WILL START TO LIFT NORTH TODAY AND BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER.
STILL LOOKING FOR A COUPLE DIFFERENT MCS'S TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA, NORTH OF THE
FRONT, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST
CO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. FAST MOVING MCS IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT AS THIS MCS ROLLS EAST WITH SOME LARGE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EVENT. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAKE IT. THE MORE GLOBAL MODELS
TRACK THE MCS GENERALLY ALONG I-70 WHILE THE CAMS TAKE IT
FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE, VERY HIGH PWS WILL RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, MCS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN KS INTO MO
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS REGENERATE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
COMPLEX OF STORMS AS 850MB MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO IT. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO SUN AFTERNOON. WHETHER OR NOT
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH OUTFLOW MAKES IT AND IF SOUTHERN/SE KS CAN
RECOVER. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS SUN EVENING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF IT WILL AFFECT
SOUTHERN KS, OR DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN,
THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS
ENDS UP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR PART OF THE FLINT HILLS INTO
SOUTHEAST KS.
BY MON MORNING, STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
COLD FRONT ALSO CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. STILL LOOKING FOR PATTERN
TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DECENT
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO WITH STORMS LIKELY IN
THESE LOCATIONS. SO THERE'S A CHANCE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TRY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT. PATTERN REALLY DOESN'T
CHANGE MUCH FOR WED-FRI, WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS
AS WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR SUN AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED BY
WHERE OUTFLOW IS LOCATED. IF IT DOESN'T MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN KS,
THEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE MID 90S. OUTSIDE OF THIS
SCENARIO, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
REMAINING THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS SITES
GENERALLY AFTER 08/09Z. CEILINGS WILL LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, INCREASING TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS BETWEEN 16-18Z. SOME GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KANSAS SITES AFTER 20Z.
AFTER 00Z, CHANCES INCREASE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO IMPACT
CENTRAL KS TERMINALS SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS STILL LOW, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 00Z FOR
MOST LIKELY IMPACTED TERMINALS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CFH
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