444  
FXUS63 KICT 170810  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH SOME  
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  
 
- SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
FLINT HILLS INTO EASTERN KS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING  
OVER BAJA. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS  
DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN CA. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT EXTENDS  
FROM CENTRAL MO AND THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN KS.  
 
WEAK IMPULSE OVER BAJA WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST AND WILL BE  
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME  
TIME, UPPER ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER CA WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO  
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, RICH LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DAYTIME STORM  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNSET, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ELEVATED  
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KS AND LIFT  
QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKING FOR  
2,000-3,000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE TONIGHT WITH ENOUGH EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO GENERATE LARGE HAIL AS THEY RACE OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE FLINT HILLS INTO EASTERN  
KS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.  
 
BY 12Z SUN, SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER PERTURBATION WILL BE  
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE YET ANOTHER PIECE OF  
ENERGY STARTS TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING  
AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO AREAS GENERALLY  
WEST OF I-135 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON,  
UPPER ENERGY WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS WITH A SURFACE LOW  
GENERALLY NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER AND A DRY LINE EXTENDING IN A NW  
TO SE FASHION ACROSS WESTERN KS. THE NAM ALONG WITH MOST SHORT-  
RANGE MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE DRYLINE A BIT FURTHER WEST COMPARED  
TO RUNS 24 HOURS AGO, WITH THE GFS STILL FURTHER EAST. STILL  
HAVE A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE FURTHER WEST DRYLINE PLACEMENT. THE  
MAIN QUESTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WHERE IS THE WARM FRONT LOCATED  
AND HOW WILL LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AFFECT AFTERNOON STORM  
CHANCES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS PRETTY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR OR NORTH  
OF THE WARM FRONT AS 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY RAMPS-  
UP. THERE IS ALSO STILL A CHANCE WE DO SEE SOME STORMS ON THE  
DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KS, GENERALLY AFTER 21Z. ANY STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A GREAT CHANCE TO QUICKLY GO  
SEVERE, WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY AND AROUND 40-50KTS OF  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ALL SEVERE WX HAZARDS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH  
THIS ACTIVITY. FOR THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR OR NORTH OF THE  
WARM FRONT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE  
POTENTIAL SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ELEVATED ALONG WITH  
MESSY STORM INTERACTIONS.  
 
THE INITIAL UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND CLOSE-  
OFF OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER WAVE AND  
STRONG UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 18Z MON, NAM  
HAS THE DRYLINE SETUP GENERALLY ALONG I-135 WITH THE GFS AND  
ECMWF HAVING THIS SAME FEATURE A BIT FURTHER EAST. WHAT IS VERY  
IMPRESSIVE ABOUT MONDAY, IS THE 100-120KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO  
NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTHERN KS BY 00Z TUE. PLUS, RICH LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE, WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70  
DEWPOINTS REMAINING. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE  
MON EAST OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE, WITH SOME HIGHER END SEVERE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
BY TUE AFTERNOON, UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL  
BE IN PLACE FOR BOTH TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH VFR  
PREVAILING. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE LATE IN  
THE DAY. SOME CUMULUS IN THE 4-5K FT RANGE MAY DEVELOP TOWARD  
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER  
00-02Z. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT TO MENTION IN  
TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...RBL  
AVIATION...MWM  
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