120
FXUS63 KICT 261138
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE/COOLER AIRMASS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE A COUPLE FLEET FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL RACE EAST
ACROSS KANSAS AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
TODAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME
HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT
WHICH COULD TRY AND REACH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC THAN TODAY'S. THIS LOOKS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE SPREAD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS LINGERS OVER KANSAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
MODELS SHOW A DEEP MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THEN EJECTING OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND
RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO KANSAS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON ARRIVAL TIMING/EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH BY THE
MODELS, AND LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING, LIFTING
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND MAY SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE FIRE
DANGER LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WHEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINES WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. FRIDAY
COULD SEE POSSIBLE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 54 31 53 32 / 10 0 10 20
HUTCHINSON 52 28 51 29 / 0 10 20 30
NEWTON 52 29 51 30 / 10 10 10 30
ELDORADO 53 30 52 33 / 10 10 0 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 31 56 33 / 20 0 0 10
RUSSELL 50 25 47 24 / 0 20 50 40
GREAT BEND 51 26 48 25 / 0 10 50 30
SALINA 50 27 49 28 / 0 10 30 40
MCPHERSON 51 27 50 28 / 0 10 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 57 33 55 37 / 30 20 0 10
CHANUTE 55 31 54 36 / 20 10 0 10
IOLA 53 31 53 35 / 20 10 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 56 32 55 37 / 20 10 0 10
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
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