926
FXUS63 KICT 291636
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY MORNING, A SLOW MOVING, MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL AR THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL NE. AS
THE TROUGH AXIS GLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, RAIN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL EMERGE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KS INTO THE OK AND
TX PANHANDLES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY ACROSS NM, WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE. A STRENGTHENING LLJ OF 35-40 KT MAY
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR TWO TO REACH CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES (8-9 C/KM) OVERTOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
2000-3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORECAST WIND PROFILES
REVEAL A VEERING WIND PROFILE THROUGH 3 KM WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
FROM 3-6 KM, RESULTING IN 20-25 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEREFORE,
THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAY CONTAIN HAIL NEAR
QUARTER SIZE, WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A SHARPENING DRYLINE FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO
WESTERN OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS KS AND OK
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WIND PROFILES REVEAL
VEERING THROUGH 3 KM WITH LITTLE ACCELERATION ABOVE 3 KM, RESULTING
IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES UP TO 30 KT. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO STEEPEN FURTHER TO 9-9.5 C/KM, RESULTING IN 3500-4000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES. DOWNDRAFT CAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. INITIAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AND MOVE EAST WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH KS
REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST US. AT THIS POINT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM
CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AFTER AN IFR START TO THE DAY EXPECTING CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR FOR ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AS THE EVENING UNFOLDS. IF THESE STORMS
CAN HOLD TOGETHER THEY MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS TO INDICATE THIS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...SGS
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