305  
FXUS63 KICT 201148  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
648 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020  
 
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...  
 
MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS NORTH  
OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE  
REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY,  
THINKING COOLER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS (I.E. NAM, WRF-  
ARW, HREF, ESRL HRRR) WILL WIN OUT, WITH ONLY 50S LIKELY FOR MOST  
TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO  
INCH NORTH, WITH 60S-70S POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL KS SHOULD REMAIN IN  
THE 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY, STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS  
WILL ALLOW THE ENTIRE REGION TO WARM INTO THE 80S. A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING WILL SUPPORT STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH  
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH AN EVENTUAL WIND  
ADVISORY PROBABLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE  
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS  
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY PREDAWN FRIDAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION...  
 
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS  
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTHWEST SOME TO  
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS BY  
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, INCREASING LIFT AND  
INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD  
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME  
SOUTHERN KS, SOUTHWEST MO, AND NORTHERN OK. UNFORTUNATELY,  
THINKING BRUNT OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN JUST  
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. FOR WEDNESDAY, STRONG WARM/MOIST  
ADVECTION ATOP FRONTAL ZONE INCHING NORTHWARD SHOULD SPREAD PATCHY  
TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, LINGERING  
LONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE  
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING,  
MODEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE  
SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
UNFORTUNATELY, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY AS WELL  
GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED  
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.50" ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020  
 
HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED  
POLAR/ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS. FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S-50S, ALTHOUGH MODEL  
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S BY LATE  
SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
MOSTLY IN THE 20S-30S, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS SUPPORT TEENS BY  
MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE, THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY-MONDAY ACROSS THE  
REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN ANY  
SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT...STAY TUNED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020  
 
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSIENT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING, PATCHY RAIN AND THEN LOWERING CEILINGS  
AGAIN TONIGHT. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR TRANSIENT  
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW  
INCREASES WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. EXPECT  
CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR LATE TONIGHT AT KICT, KCNU AND  
KHUT, WITH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REACHING KGBD AROUND END OF  
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CEILINGS IS BELOW NORMAL.  
-HOWERTON  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020  
 
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WHICH WILL  
SUPPORT HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.  
MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER WILL BELOW  
RED FLAG/CRITICAL LEVELS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 54 48 63 63 / 20 30 30 0  
HUTCHINSON 55 42 58 58 / 10 20 30 0  
NEWTON 54 44 59 59 / 20 20 30 10  
ELDORADO 54 48 61 61 / 20 30 30 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 51 70 64 / 20 50 30 0  
RUSSELL 60 39 51 50 / 10 10 30 10  
GREAT BEND 59 39 53 52 / 10 10 30 0  
SALINA 58 37 53 52 / 10 10 30 10  
MCPHERSON 55 39 56 56 / 10 10 30 10  
COFFEYVILLE 58 53 77 65 / 40 60 30 0  
CHANUTE 56 49 66 64 / 40 40 30 0  
IOLA 55 48 62 61 / 30 40 30 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 57 52 72 65 / 40 50 30 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADK  
LONG TERM...ADK  
AVIATION...PJH  
FIRE WEATHER...ADK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page