303
FXUS63 KICT 032112
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH MOSTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
PRECIPITATION:
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DIGGING CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BRUNT
OF GUIDANCE NOW FAVORING LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO HUTCHINSON TO WELLINGTON. THERMAL PROFILES
FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH LOW LEVEL
WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-35 DEGREE RANGE. MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY, AND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG EVENT BY ANY
MEANS GIVEN RATHER WEAK LIFT, WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
FOR WEDNESDAY, COULD SEE CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON PATCHES OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS, DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A TINY BIT OF
POSITIVE BUOYANCY IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ONCE AGAIN, ABSOLUTELY NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A LONG STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER,
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS MID-AMERICA,
AS A "LEAD" UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION, WITH ANOTHER DEEPER
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DIGGING ON ITS HEELS. STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH MODEL CHANGES LIKELY, SO STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES:
SIMILAR TO TODAY, CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES PLUS/MINUS 5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FEEL A
BIT COOLER GIVEN BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THEREAFTER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION, AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASE ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND. A LONG STRETCH OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 50S-
60S IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. AFTER 15Z, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, WENT WITH
VICINITY SHOWER AT RSL AND GBD. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES AFTER 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THIS ISSUANCE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC
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