351  
FXUS63 KICT 010810  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
210 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
* WARMING TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
 
* ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
A COMPACT MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS IN IT'S WAKE MAY BE  
STUBBORN AND SLOW TO MIX OUT WITH LACK OF A DRY/COLD INTRUSION AS  
WEAK RIDGING RETURNS TO THE AREA. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES KEEPING VALUES LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING  
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A  
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA  
WITH SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL  
CONUS.  
 
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT  
SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER  
70S/AROUND 80. AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL  
PLUMMET LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE  
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.  
 
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE FRONT MAY HANG UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS  
BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. LOW POPS(20%) WERE MAINTAINED IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS WITH  
HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINING FURTHER EAST. SOME COOLER AIR MAY BE  
FORCED SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK  
AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE TRENDED DOWNWARD IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK  
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM MAY  
BRING MORE BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND ANY WINTRY MIX IS  
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
AN AREA OF -RA/-IP/-SN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS  
PRECIPITATION AS VSBY ARE EXPECTED. LOWER CIGS ARE BUILDING INTO  
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. AS SUCH, MVFR CIGS  
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT HUT AND ICT MOMENTARILY AND AT CNU BY  
10Z. MAINTAINED A SCATTERED MVFR GROUP AT GBD, RSL, AND SLN  
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL  
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS  
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE  
EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, GUSTING UP  
TO 25 KT. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE FOR MUCH  
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY  
AND MONDAY, HOWEVER THE MORE CONCERNING DAY WILL BE SUNDAY. EXTREME  
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND A  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL  
COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND  
SOUTH WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2024  
 
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE  
BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL.  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE INFORMATION FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 3RD:  
 
SITE: RECORD/YEAR: FORECAST:  
 
WICHITA 80 (1994) 79  
 
SALINA 81 (1986) 77  
 
CHANUTE 84 (1901) 82  
 
RUSSELL 79 (2018) 73  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MWM  
AVIATION...BMB  
FIRE WEATHER...MWM  
CLIMATE...MWM  
 
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