179
FXUS63 KICT 080743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING, NIGHTTIME, AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
- MOSTLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
TODAY...CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THINKING THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP AN MCV TRACKING OVER CENTRAL KS TODAY. WHILE WE'RE THINKING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATION AT-BAY, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV FROM ABOUT MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
TONIGHT...BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, AS A
FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THINKING BY THE TIME
ACTIVITY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE 50-65 MPH WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN).
THURSDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...TONIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXIT SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MOST CAM SOLUTIONS GENERATE A DECENTLY STRONG COLD POOL WITH
TONIGHT'S CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE CONVECTIVELY-AUGMENTED
FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING,
LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN KS OR NORTHERN OK. CONSEQUENTLY, THINKING ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS OR TWO TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS, AND TRACK ALONG/NORTH OF THE
DRAPED/STALLED FRONTAL ZONE (PROBABLY TRACK GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-70, ALTHOUGH THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK).
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
FRIDAY--SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO TOP THE BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY--MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD SO FAR NORTH THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MID-AMERICA LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE MAY
SUPPORT A SMATTERING OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KS.
TEMPERATURES:
TODAY--SATURDAY...THINKING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PROBABLY THE
WARMEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ESPECIALLY TODAY AREAWIDE, AND THURSDAY
OVER SOUTHERN KS. A POST-THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY TOUCH 105 OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS BOTH DAYS, BUT THINKING IT'S TOO MARGINAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN EVER-SO-SLIGHT
COOL DOWN, AS THICKNESS DECREASES A BIT NORTH OF THE WEAKENING
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE.
SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE A RECIPE FOR A
DEVELOPING HEAT WAVE ACROSS KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP KANSAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GREATEST THICKNESS AND ASSOCIATED HIGHEST TEMPERATURES.
CONSEQUENTLY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY END UP BEING RATHER
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S THROUGH MID 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
GREAT FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
18 HRS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BY LATER THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST, AS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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