614
FXUS63 KICT 192355
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
* LATE-SEASON SNOW AND COLD TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER
TO MUCH, OF NOT ALL, OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RECORD, OR NEAR-RECORD,
COLD TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST: INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE FLINT HILLS AREA OF SE
KS. ADDITIONALLY, I EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF THE FLINT HILLS AREA.
TIMING: ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS, THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7AM TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY TO MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
SNOW AMOUNTS: A BROAD SWATH OF 1-4" IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN KS (LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, HIGHEST ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR).
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR IS
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BOOSTED BY ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT AND A STRONG SFC HIGH NOSING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A STRONG S/W IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, AN AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF AN
UPPER JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA, LEADING TO MODEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY HELP TO AUGMENT
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING LAYER
OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW-GROWTH REGION, AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD SFC
TEMPS, SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY START AS A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
MIX BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE DATA, IT APPEARS THAT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW.
IRONICALLY, THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS NOT THE PRECIP
TYPE, BUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS, THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND A REMARKABLY DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE (FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW RATES NEARING
1"/HR. THIS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME ANY AREAS WITH WARMER GROUND/ROAD
TEMPS, LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS, THE BATTLE
BETWEEN SNOW RATES AND GROUND/SURFACE TEMPS MAKES THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST LESS CERTAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT MAY ENCROACH ON SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY TUESDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY SHORTENING THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE
FLINT HILLS AREA OF SE KS MAY HOLD THAT BETTER MOISTURE LONGER,
ALLOWING A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW. BASED ON THIS, I HAVE
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO MATCH WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF SNOWFALL RATES AND DURATION IS EXPECTED, AND WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IS THE HIGHEST.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD EVEN PUT THE WICHITA METRO IN PLAY
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY IMPACT AMOUNTS,
WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES, THOUGH.
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, THE LATE-SEASON TIMING SHOULD FAVOR
A QUICKER MELTING OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ON HARD-TOP/PAVED SURFACES,
WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD FREEZE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OF AS LOW AS THEY
OTHERWISE COULD, BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
MOST AREAS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. OF COURSE, ANY AREA WITH
LINGERING SNOWCOVER WILL BE EVEN MORE AT RISK. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL COME CLOSE TO, OR EVEN BREAK, SOME
RECORDS. PLEASE SEE THE "CLIMATE" SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING TEMP AND SNOWFALL RECORDS.
TO, HOPEFULLY, AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES, WE LEFT THE FREEZE
WATCH AS-IS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED AM PERIOD. IT'S NOT AN
ISSUE OF IF IT WILL OCCUR, BUT SIMPLY HOLDING OFF TO AVOID
CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT SNOW AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
MARTIN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A PRONOUNCED SW FLOW
ALOFT PATTERN. A WAVE OR TWO MAY MOVE THROUGH THU/FRI, AFFORDING AT
LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND
AND, ESPECIALLY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP APPEARS
LIKELY.
MARTIN
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS
SNOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL KS AND SPREADS SOUTH. GOOD LIFT AND
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KRSL, KSLN AND KGBD. RAIN AND
SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ONLY SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE
REST OF THE SITES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIFT DEPARTS. -HOWERTON
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH, OR BREAK, RECORD LOWS BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST.
REGARDING SNOWFALL, IF MORE THAN 0.2" OF SNOW IS MEASURED AT THE
WICHITA AIRPORT (KICT), IT WOULD BE THE LARGEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD
TO OCCUR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING SEASON.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 31 48 29 55 / 70 40 0 0
HUTCHINSON 29 45 28 54 / 90 30 0 0
NEWTON 30 45 28 54 / 90 50 0 0
ELDORADO 32 46 29 55 / 70 70 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 33 49 30 57 / 40 40 0 0
RUSSELL 27 43 25 52 / 100 10 0 0
GREAT BEND 26 44 25 51 / 100 10 0 0
SALINA 30 46 27 54 / 100 30 0 0
MCPHERSON 29 45 27 53 / 100 40 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 35 47 29 57 / 20 70 0 0
CHANUTE 34 45 29 55 / 50 80 0 0
IOLA 34 44 28 54 / 50 80 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 35 46 29 56 / 30 80 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ069-082-083-
091.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ070>072-095-096.
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...PJH
CLIMATE...RM
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