533
FXUS63 KICT 201037
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
- HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
- NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY MORNING, LONGWAVE, MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH TROUGHING OFF THE
WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
ADVANCING ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN MN THROUGH SD. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 21-23 C ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO 26-28 C ACROSS CENTRAL KS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO NEAR 100 ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
FACTORING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 105 AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1-9
PM TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWEST MT, IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY, SHUNTING A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE NEARING THE HIGHWAY-400 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF EXTREME HEAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 ONCE AGAIN. FACTORING IN DEW
POINTS NEAR 70 WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110. THE EXTREME
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM TUESDAY FOR AREAS FROM
RENO TO ALLEN COUNTIES AND POINTS SOUTH. AREAS WITHIN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-90S. DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE INTO 50S AND 60S,
MITIGATING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT.
MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEAST KS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO EJECT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION INTO HIGH PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A
STRENGTHENING LLJ THURSDAY MORNING MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS. A MORE-FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN APPEARS TO EMERGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS WITH A 45-50
KT LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AT THIS POINT THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND MAY KEEP THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTHERN INTO NORTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. THE CORE OF THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE APPEARS
TO SLIDE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LIKELY YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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