424
FXUS63 KICT 211141
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND SUNNY WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 60S TO MID 70S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OWING
TO A DISTURBANCE ANCHORED ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY ONE-
QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST. THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY, A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN KANSAS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTINUE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
EXCELLENT WEATHER CONTINUES AT ALL TERMINALS THRU MON MORNING AND
LIKELY BEYOND AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE, THAT HAS BEEN COVERING MOST
OF THE MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, DRIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT & TOMORROW. HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE CO/KS LINE WOULD CAUSE S WINDS TO INCREASE TO 17-22KTS
SUSTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL WITH THE STRONGER SPEEDS AT KGBD & KRSL,
WHERE 25-30KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 68 46 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 71 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 67 46 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 66 46 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 68 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 74 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 74 44 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 71 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 70 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 66 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 65 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 64 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 65 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-
093>096-098>100.
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS
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