371
FXUS63 KICT 071923
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING
AND TRACK ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS. FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
LOOKS TO BE A FEW DIFFERENT MID/UPPER IMPULSES IMPACTING THE PLAINS.
ONE IS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW NOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OK. A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH PW VALUES IN THE 175-200% OF NORMAL RANGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. OUT WEST, SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED ACROSS EASTERN OK
INTO SOUTHEAST KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THIS AREA IS SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST, AS IS THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINFALL RATES IN THIS
AIRMASS REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH, WITH EVEN SMALL SHOWERS PRODUCING 2
INCH/HR RATES. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
SHIFTING EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS UPPER
IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO MO THIS EVENING, A TIGHT MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND VEERING AS THE
EVENING HOURS PROGRESS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS INTO
SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GOOD
SPEED CONVERGENCE. WITH EXTREMELY HIGH PW'S REMAINING, FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT AND WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MON MORNING.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS TO START
THE WORK WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE MON AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NW KS IN AN
AREA OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP WITH THE THINKING THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUE AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WED EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST KS AS LOW LEVEL
JET ONCE AGAIN RAMPS UP. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THEY
MAKE IT DUE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING
ISSUES. VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY THU AND WILL KEEP STORMS AROUND, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS.
STILL LOOKING FOR UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TUE AND WED
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEAST KS. SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO REACH 100 DEGREES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN ON FRI AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION LIKELY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRY AND TRACK EAST AND WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
AROUND FOR FRI INTO SAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KRSL/KGBD. SITES ELSEWHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE AREA OF CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO SCATTER AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING A RETURN OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT MAINLY IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ095-096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...SGS
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