082
FXUS63 KICT 021134
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A MILD AND TRANQUIL DAY TODAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORING IN PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL KS BEFORE A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MILD, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.
FRIDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AFTER 20-21Z WHICH WILL FAVOR AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES WITH 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ARE PROGGED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE RUNNING
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY LEADING TO RAPID LINEAR
MODE WHICH MAY LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO SOME DEGREE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.
SAT-SUN...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE SPEEDS
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
INSOLATION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S/AROUND 70
UNDER SUNNY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND THIS FRONT MAY BISECT KANSAS DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
LOWER IN SOME AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
MONDAY REMAINS LOW.
TUE-WED...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO RETURN
NORTHWARD WITH INCREASING THICKNESS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ON WED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY
14Z WITH A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SWEEP OVER THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INITIALLY ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS VFR RETURNS TO THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IMPACT THE AREA
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 30 PERCENT. A VERY
HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS A
RESULT OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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