077
FXUS63 KICT 041920
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
220 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A HANDFUL OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
- DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THIS COMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHT
AN UPPER WAVE CONTINUING ITS LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH
MOSTLY- ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SPANS FROM THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
GIVEN MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. DESPITE INVERTED-V POINT
SOUNDINGS PER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, MEAGER ELEVATED LAPSE RATES
SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850/700 MB WARM-
AIR ADVECTION. HEADING TOWARD MORNING, THESE WILL SHIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHERE GREATER COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS INCREASING INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI, AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
WINDS RESULTING IN SOLID SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 80 ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH WARM-AIR ADVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAY ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S, THOUGH AS THE PRIOR CYCLE POINTED OUT, GUIDANCE
MAY BE JUST A BIT ON THE HOT SIDE CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVERAGE AND THE STALLED OUT FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AMID MORE MID-LEVEL WARM-AIR
ADVECTION, AND WITH RETURNING SOLID MID-LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY,
A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROM HERE, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COMMENCES OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY PROMOTE HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND PERHAPS EVEN LOW 100S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS COMING WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY ON WED WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH MVFR LIKELY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TURNPIKE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LINGERING. THE FRONT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY EARLY ON WED DEPENDING HOW WIDESPREAD THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST KS EARLY ON WED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
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