067
FXUS63 KICT 071929
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
- POTENTIALLY TURNING COOLER BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEEK'S END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING, THINKING SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP A LID ON MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE REST
OF THE DAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--MONDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE
MONDAY, BUT WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY QUITE ISOLATED, SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM-FREE. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN INVERTED-
V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
LATE TUESDAY--WEEK'S END...PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS,
A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION TOWARD MID-
WEEK, AND STALLING IT OVER MID-AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST WEEK'S END.
A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE A FEW DAYS LATER IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH, ACTING TO REINFORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONTAL. THE RESULT SHOULD BE OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEEK'S END, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST EACH DAY FROM THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A SEASONABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT EACH DAY/NIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND:
SATURDAY--WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGING IN CONCERT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S AND 100S DURING THE
DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY NO COOLER THAN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. FORECAST HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY BE A TAD CONSERVATIVE (ESPECIALLY
ALONG/WEST OF I-135) GIVEN THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER SOIL MOISTURE THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TWO SAVING GRACES DURING
THIS UPCOMING HEAT WAVE ARE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER DEWPOINTS
COMPARED TO THE JULY HEAT WAVES AND STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, WHICH
WILL AID IN EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON SKIN. HEAT INDICES AROUND
100-107 DEGREES ARE LIKELY, HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS, SO
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES AT SOME
POINT.
THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...A FRONTAL ZONE OOZING SOUTH AND STALLING
SOMEWHERE OVER MID-AMERICA SHOULD SUPPORT SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND BEYOND. THE DEGREE OF
COOLING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE TIED TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONTAL ZONE CAN REACH. COOLER SCENARIOS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 80S (ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND), WHILE WARMER SCENARIOS
ONLY "COOL OFF" THE REGION INTO THE 90S. STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO RESUME SHORTLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WHILE MOVING SOUTH
AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S STORMS, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH 23-01Z THIS
EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AFTER 01Z, WINDS WILL BECOME
MUCH LIGHTER; GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
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