793  
FXUS63 KICT 091145  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
645 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
 
TODAY:  
ON CUE, ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS  
THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THESE WILL PERSIST INTO  
MID MORNING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES, WIND  
AND HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WILL HOLD  
OFF ON ADVISORY AGAIN TODAY.  
 
TONIGHT:  
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO  
NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST  
DURING THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT, WHICH  
WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL DEPENDENT, BUT THINKING DECENT LOW LEVEL  
JET SHOULD KEEP IT IN CHECK - ESTIMATING THAT TO BE AROUND HIGHWAY  
400.  
 
MONDAY:  
THE WILD CARD ON TUESDAY IS WHERE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS  
WILL BE DURING THE DAY. IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY OUTSIDE  
OF OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AREAS  
ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. IF PRECIPITATION WANES EARLY  
AND SKIES CLEAR, NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY.  
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR CERTAINLY EVENING, WOULD EXPECT STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CAPPING,  
BUT INITIATION SEEMS PROBABLE. BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE  
VICINITY OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD MAKE FOR RATHER LARGE  
HODOGRAPHS DESPITE MODEST WINDS ALOFT. COMBO OF LARGE CAPE AND  
700MB-500MB SHEAR SUGGEST SOME LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE  
BOTH POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY:  
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES  
ON TUESDAY. MODELS HANG ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT  
THAT SEEMS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. REMNANT MCS AND SHOWERS EAST OF I-35  
IN THE MORNING WITH SLOW CLEARING SEEMS MORE LIKELY. LESS  
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON UNLESS  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AREA. -HOWERTON  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
 
DESPITE MODEST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING  
SHORTWAVE, DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE RULE. THIS, IN  
COMBINATION WITH MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF OK AND KS,  
AND THE EAST-WEST THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD ALL GENERALLY FAVOR  
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING AND ELEVATED STORMS TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING AT  
A MINIMUM AND POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL MCS AT THE MAXIMUM. NOT MUCH  
CONFIDENCE IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,  
WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL VARIATIONS. QUITE  
SUSPICIOUS ABOUT DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT,  
BUT MUCH WILL BE RIDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT-  
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EQUALLY UNCERTAIN - WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY FROM EARLIER  
STORMS. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
 
*TSRA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT  
*LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS  
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, LIKELY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR  
PERIODS OF TSRA. AT MOST RISK IS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS LESS  
CERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA THREAT WILL REACH.  
WHERE TSRA DO OCCUR, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS  
AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.  
 
TSRA TIMING: ONGOING TSRA ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR MAY LINGER  
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING/MOVING AWAY.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO LINGER EVEN INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, I FOCUSED TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS. TSRA MAY THEN CONTINUE INTO, OR REDEVELOP, THIS  
EVENING AND REMAIN A THREAT OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD  
OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS.  
 
MARTIN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 97 75 95 71 / 20 10 30 50  
HUTCHINSON 96 72 93 68 / 20 30 40 50  
NEWTON 97 74 94 69 / 20 20 40 50  
ELDORADO 96 75 94 70 / 20 10 40 50  
WINFIELD-KWLD 95 75 95 71 / 10 10 10 50  
RUSSELL 99 70 91 66 / 10 50 20 40  
GREAT BEND 96 70 91 66 / 10 40 30 40  
SALINA 99 73 93 68 / 30 40 40 50  
MCPHERSON 97 72 93 68 / 30 30 40 50  
COFFEYVILLE 95 76 96 72 / 20 10 10 60  
CHANUTE 97 76 96 71 / 20 10 10 60  
IOLA 96 76 96 71 / 20 10 30 60  
PARSONS-KPPF 96 77 96 72 / 20 10 10 60  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PJH  
LONG TERM...PJH  
AVIATION...RM  
 
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