436  
FXUS63 KICT 170739  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
239 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.  
 
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER  
CENTRAL KS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. STRONG/SEVERE  
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING  
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM  
NORTHERN IA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR NW KS, WITH  
ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  
 
LEE TROUGHING WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN TODAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE  
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR  
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. IN THESE LOCATIONS WE  
ARE LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45  
MPH. ALSO LOOKING FOR THESE STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE  
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
 
BY TUE MORNING, UPPER ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AT THE SAME TIME COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY  
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. BY 21Z TUE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH  
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO JUST NORTH OF KHYS AND INTO WESTERN  
KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUE  
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE EARLY EVENING AS  
LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE  
HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT, WITH THE BETTER UPPER  
SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH ALONG WITH CAPPING ISSUES TO THE SOUTH.  
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE THINKING THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH  
OF I-70 WILL HAVE THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES. ON WED, COLD FRONT,  
LIKELY REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW, WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-  
CENTRAL KS WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO LINGER, AT LEAST  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, BY WED EVENING INTO THU, THE  
BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL LIFT BACK INTO NEBRASKA.  
 
BY EARLY THU MORNING, UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER  
OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SAME  
TIME, AN UPPER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF AND  
INTO SOUTHWEST TX BY THU MORNING. SO TO END THE WORK WEEK, THE  
BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA ALONG WITH TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.  
UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT  
BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT  
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024  
 
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY.  
 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING TO  
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS. WE ARE  
LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45  
MPH FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. CONFIDENCE REMAINS  
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT  
24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RBL  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page