305
FXUS63 KICT 201148
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...
MAIN STORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS NORTH
OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY,
THINKING COOLER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS (I.E. NAM, WRF-
ARW, HREF, ESRL HRRR) WILL WIN OUT, WITH ONLY 50S LIKELY FOR MOST
TODAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
INCH NORTH, WITH 60S-70S POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS, ALTHOUGH CENTRAL KS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT. BY THURSDAY, STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL ALLOW THE ENTIRE REGION TO WARM INTO THE 80S. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING WILL SUPPORT STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH AN EVENTUAL WIND
ADVISORY PROBABLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY PREDAWN FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION...
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS, POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTHWEST SOME TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS BY
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN KS, SOUTHWEST MO, AND NORTHERN OK. UNFORTUNATELY,
THINKING BRUNT OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. FOR WEDNESDAY, STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ATOP FRONTAL ZONE INCHING NORTHWARD SHOULD SPREAD PATCHY
TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, LINGERING
LONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING,
MODEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
UNFORTUNATELY, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY AS WELL
GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.50" ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020
HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR/ARCTIC AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S-50S, ALTHOUGH MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S BY LATE
SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 20S-30S, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS SUPPORT TEENS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. FURTHERMORE, THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY-MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN ANY
SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT...STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSIENT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING, PATCHY RAIN AND THEN LOWERING CEILINGS
AGAIN TONIGHT. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR TRANSIENT
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST KS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR OR IFR LATE TONIGHT AT KICT, KCNU AND
KHUT, WITH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY REACHING KGBD AROUND END OF
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CEILINGS IS BELOW NORMAL.
-HOWERTON
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2020
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION.
MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD KEEP FIRE DANGER WILL BELOW
RED FLAG/CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 54 48 63 63 / 20 30 30 0
HUTCHINSON 55 42 58 58 / 10 20 30 0
NEWTON 54 44 59 59 / 20 20 30 10
ELDORADO 54 48 61 61 / 20 30 30 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 51 70 64 / 20 50 30 0
RUSSELL 60 39 51 50 / 10 10 30 10
GREAT BEND 59 39 53 52 / 10 10 30 0
SALINA 58 37 53 52 / 10 10 30 10
MCPHERSON 55 39 56 56 / 10 10 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 58 53 77 65 / 40 60 30 0
CHANUTE 56 49 66 64 / 40 40 30 0
IOLA 55 48 62 61 / 30 40 30 0
PARSONS-KPPF 57 52 72 65 / 40 50 30 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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