337
FXUS63 KICT 110826
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CURRENTLY, THE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A
PROMINENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. STORMS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASED.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AROUND 2" LED TO EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY
DAYBREAK.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST, SLOWLY DRAGGING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH, AND
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS.
ONCE AGAIN, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
BY SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LEADING TO THE RETURN OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN, AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL US BY MID WEEK, THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO RESIDE UNDER
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS SETUP COULD SUPPORT A AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR WEAK
STORM AS GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH CURRENT
MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH, THE MOST LIKELY PLACEMENT OF
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. FOR FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS THAT WILL RESIDE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STILL MANAGE TO APPROACH THE MIDDLE 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING AROUND 100 DEGREES. FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS AREAWIDE WILL HOVER AROUND THE 90 DEGREE
MARK. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT THE TRUE HEAT
DOME WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR REGION. EVEN SO, HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE
90S, WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A LINE OF NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR
RANGE LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 24HR PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
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