297
FXUS63 KICT 032341
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MAY
BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING IS PROGGED
TO SHEAR EASTWARD AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED DOWNSTREAM
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA REMAINS IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO A 90 KT H25 JET. AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 07-09Z WE WILL SEE INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AREA. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SUPPORT FOR
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG WEIGHTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL
DECREASE IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A LULL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, PARCELS MAY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY LATE IN THE DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING LLJ MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED HAILERS ONCE
AGAIN.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRY LINE LATE IN THE DAY WHILE ACCELERATING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BUT OTHER MORE ISOLATED
OR WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS
THE CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE BRINGING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
SAT-MON...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ANTICIPATED. THIS COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN ON MONDAY AS
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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