793
FXUS63 KICT 091145
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
TODAY:
ON CUE, ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THESE WILL PERSIST INTO
MID MORNING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES, WIND
AND HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADVISORY AGAIN TODAY.
TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN SECTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT, WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE COLD POOL DEPENDENT, BUT THINKING DECENT LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP IT IN CHECK - ESTIMATING THAT TO BE AROUND HIGHWAY
400.
MONDAY:
THE WILD CARD ON TUESDAY IS WHERE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
WILL BE DURING THE DAY. IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. IF PRECIPITATION WANES EARLY
AND SKIES CLEAR, NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY.
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR CERTAINLY EVENING, WOULD EXPECT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE A FUNCTION OF CAPPING,
BUT INITIATION SEEMS PROBABLE. BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD MAKE FOR RATHER LARGE
HODOGRAPHS DESPITE MODEST WINDS ALOFT. COMBO OF LARGE CAPE AND
700MB-500MB SHEAR SUGGEST SOME LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
BOTH POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY:
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY. MODELS HANG ONTO PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
THAT SEEMS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. REMNANT MCS AND SHOWERS EAST OF I-35
IN THE MORNING WITH SLOW CLEARING SEEMS MORE LIKELY. LESS
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AREA. -HOWERTON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
DESPITE MODEST UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE, DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WILL BE THE RULE. THIS, IN
COMBINATION WITH MOIST AXIS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF OK AND KS,
AND THE EAST-WEST THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD ALL GENERALLY FAVOR
ISOLATED SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND ELEVATED STORMS TOWARDS DAYBREAK INTO MID MORNING AT
A MINIMUM AND POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL MCS AT THE MAXIMUM. NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL VARIATIONS. QUITE
SUSPICIOUS ABOUT DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT MUCH WILL BE RIDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EQUALLY UNCERTAIN - WITH
POTENTIAL FOR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY FROM EARLIER
STORMS. -HOWERTON
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2020
*TSRA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
*LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY RESIDE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, LIKELY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF TSRA. AT MOST RISK IS THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA THREAT WILL REACH.
WHERE TSRA DO OCCUR, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
TSRA TIMING: ONGOING TSRA ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR MAY LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING/MOVING AWAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO LINGER EVEN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, I FOCUSED TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TSRA MAY THEN CONTINUE INTO, OR REDEVELOP, THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN A THREAT OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN AVIATION HAZARD
OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS.
MARTIN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 97 75 95 71 / 20 10 30 50
HUTCHINSON 96 72 93 68 / 20 30 40 50
NEWTON 97 74 94 69 / 20 20 40 50
ELDORADO 96 75 94 70 / 20 10 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 95 75 95 71 / 10 10 10 50
RUSSELL 99 70 91 66 / 10 50 20 40
GREAT BEND 96 70 91 66 / 10 40 30 40
SALINA 99 73 93 68 / 30 40 40 50
MCPHERSON 97 72 93 68 / 30 30 40 50
COFFEYVILLE 95 76 96 72 / 20 10 10 60
CHANUTE 97 76 96 71 / 20 10 10 60
IOLA 96 76 96 71 / 20 10 30 60
PARSONS-KPPF 96 77 96 72 / 20 10 10 60
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RM
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