191
FXUS63 KICT 261729
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALL WEEK, WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT DUE TO IT BEING
PRODUCED BY SUCH A SUBTLE WAVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SOUTHERN CO WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING A
COMPACT VORT LOBE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CO. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES ALL OF THE PLAINS AND IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN KS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN THE
0 TO -15 RANGE.
LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY JUST SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES. AFTER A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY, WE WILL FINALLY SEE HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S,
WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST SINCE FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH STILL AROUND 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL
STILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COLD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE SET TO TRACK OUT OF
SOUTHERN SK/SOUTHERN MB AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP BELOW BLOW NORMAL TEMPS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN A SMALL/FAST
MOVING UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WED
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. AT THE
SAME TIME, A MUCH MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST
TO ROTATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THU INTO FRI. THE INITIAL WAVE ON THU
SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW TO AREAS OF NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KS
WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING WEST THROUGH FRI MORNING, GENERALLY
FOLLOWING THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SO THERE’S A CHANCE WE
SEE SOME SNOW THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR MOVING-IN FOR FRI AND REMAINING
THROUGH SAT, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE MOMENTARILY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR SUNSET AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...RBL/TOP
AVIATION...TOP
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