894  
FXUS63 KICT 271156  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
556 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021  
 
* SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING  
* GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH FRI  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL KS,  
WITH A 700MB COLD FRONT ARCING FROM NORTHERN KS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL  
TX. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES  
ALONG THE ARCING FRONT FROM KS TO TX. MEANWHILE, SOME WRAPAROUND  
LIGHT SNOW IS PIVOTING E/SE THROUGH SW KS.  
 
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY, WITH SOME LINGERING  
WRAPAROUND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO LATE THIS  
MORNING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A  
QUICK DEMISE OF THE PRECIP BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY  
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS MORNING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE "HIGHEST"  
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING MAY ACTUALLY BE ACROSS SE KS WHERE THE BEST  
FORCING RESIDES ALONG THE 700 FRONT.  
 
AFTER THIS MORNING'S SNOW, THE MAIN CHALLENGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS WILL BE CLOUDS, TEMPS, AND WIND. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP  
LATE TONIGHT AS A STRONG, 1035MB SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS,  
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.  
NORMALLY, THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES  
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. AND, FOR MOST, THIS IS WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN.  
WHERE SNOWCOVER EXISTS, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW QUICKLY WILL IT  
MELT OFF, AND HOW LONG WILL THIS IMPACT TEMPS.  
 
SOUTHERN KS (ALONG/EAST OF I-35) MOSTLY MISSED OUT ON THE SNOW THE  
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND IS WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE. EVEN  
THERE, THOUGH, SOILS ARE MORE MOIST RIGHT NOW THANKS TO YEAR-TO-  
DATE PRECIP RUNNING 200-400 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHILE TEMPS WILL  
MODERATE, IT MAY NOT OCCUR QUITE AS QUICKLY AS IT WOULD IN A DRIER  
WEATHER PATTERN. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL KS WILL DEAL WITH SNOWCOVER  
LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING SOME, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE DEEPEST  
SNOWPACK EXISTS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH RUSSELL/LINCOLN  
COUNTIES. PRIOR TO THE MODERATION, TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36  
HOURS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO NORTHERLY SFC WINDS,  
LINGERING CLOUDCOVER, AND SNOWPACK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY  
FALL BELOW ZERO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  
 
MARTIN  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021  
 
* QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM LIKELY LATE FRI/SAT  
 
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL LEAD TO  
A MORE RAPID LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CO FRI. THIS LOW WILL  
LIKELY TRANSLATE ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A  
NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE  
GENERAL TREND WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A SLOWER AND  
DEEPER WAVE AS IT CROSSES KS, SO WE'LL SEE IF THIS TREND  
CONTINUES. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUS PLUME OF MOISTURE GETTING WRAPPED  
INTO THE SYSTEM. DESPITE A DEEPER TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS  
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A WARMER ONE, FAVORING MOSTLY LIQUID. THE  
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER  
ROUND OF HEALTHY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY  
COLDER, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR MAY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY  
WINTRY THREAT TO BE REALIZED. A DEEPER SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN  
INCREASED RISK OF WINDY CONDITIONS (AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THE  
SYSTEM).  
 
RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AS WELL. THIS SHOULD  
LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING MAY RETURN TO  
THE WRN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS LEADING TO ACTIVE  
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN.  
 
MARTIN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST WED JAN 27 2021  
 
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MAINLY THIS MORNING.  
 
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER IMPULSE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN  
KANSAS AND MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING.  
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT MOST SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND  
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  
KCNU WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CIGS THE LONGEST AND SHOULD START  
CLEARING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 28 17 43 31 / 0 0 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 26 15 42 29 / 0 0 0 0  
NEWTON 27 17 42 30 / 10 0 0 0  
ELDORADO 28 17 42 31 / 10 0 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 18 44 33 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELL 21 10 38 24 / 0 0 0 0  
GREAT BEND 21 12 39 28 / 0 0 0 0  
SALINA 24 13 41 29 / 10 0 0 0  
MCPHERSON 25 14 41 28 / 10 0 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 33 19 43 31 / 10 0 0 0  
CHANUTE 30 18 42 31 / 10 0 0 0  
IOLA 29 17 42 30 / 10 0 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 32 19 43 31 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...RM  
AVIATION...RBL  
 
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