443
FXUS63 KICT 210845
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
A COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE STATE AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE TIMING AND THE PRECIPITATION FIELD EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/NMM/ARW APPEAR TO HAVE
INITIALIZED THE BEST THIS MORNING AND PUSH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR GETTING THE BULK
THE APPRECIABLE RAIN DURING THE DAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF AS WELL. THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER DOES NOT BRING IN MUCH IF
ANY RAIN. WHAT ALL THESE MODELS DO INDICATE IS THE FRONT WILL STALL
BRIEFLY IN THE CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME CONSISTENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
STALL WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REACH
THE UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID
100S FOR ONE MORE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THIS
POSSIBILITY. IF THE CLOUD COVER IS DENSER THAN EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TODAY, THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL COME INTO THE PHASE WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE NEEDED KICK TO PUSH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS PROGRESSION
WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED FOCUS TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW VERY GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DECENT INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE
RATES ARE PALTRY AT BEST WHICH PRECLUDES WIDE SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE BULK OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR IS BETTER IN
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HERE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH 60 MPH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. PW
VALUES ARE A CONCERN AS THEY ARE RUNNING IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH
RANGE. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A
RESULT, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREAT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE, FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT APPEARS TO PICK UP SOME
MORE. THIS WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST FLOODING THREAT EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE DURING THE NIGHT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY MORNING MONDAY AND BRING CAA TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE QUITE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
METZGER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING WAA TO RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE EXTENDED ARE LIMITED AT BEST WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKING TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.
METZGER
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUE SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
BASES/CIGS IS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PREVAILING MVFR
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KED
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
WICHITA-KICT 97 66 83 62 / 30 50 20 0
HUTCHINSON 93 64 83 60 / 30 60 10 0
NEWTON 94 66 82 60 / 30 60 10 0
ELDORADO 95 67 82 61 / 30 70 20 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 98 70 83 62 / 20 60 20 0
RUSSELL 85 60 83 57 / 40 40 0 0
GREAT BEND 87 61 83 57 / 30 40 10 0
SALINA 90 64 81 59 / 30 60 10 0
MCPHERSON 91 64 82 59 / 30 60 10 0
COFFEYVILLE 96 73 83 64 / 10 90 40 0
CHANUTE 95 71 83 62 / 10 80 30 0
IOLA 95 70 82 62 / 20 80 30 0
PARSONS-KPPF 96 72 83 63 / 10 80 40 0
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-
069>072-083-091>096-098>100.
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...KED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page