224  
FXUS63 KICT 200833  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
233 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS PROGGED TO DRIFT  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
AREA DRIVING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO THE MID  
40S IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN  
COLORADO RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS  
NEAR 50 ALONG THE OK STATE LINE.  
 
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE  
TO SURGE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IN THE WARM  
SECTOR. AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONT, A QUICK TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT  
SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS ON TUE WITH FALLING  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE  
DAY ON TUE. AT THIS TIME, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR TO REMAIN  
LIGHT, ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL  
IMPACTS ON TUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
PERIOD AS A MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN SITUATED  
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR  
ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IT'LL BE HARD TO RULE  
OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD  
BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
 
VFR FORECAST AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE FROM  
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE PERIOD. GFS  
HAS A BIT BETTER HANDLE ON THIS, ALTHOUGH ITS CORRESPONDING  
VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE SUSPECT. RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF  
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DECREASE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF KRSL AND  
KGBD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 42 26 47 40 / 0 0 0 20  
HUTCHINSON 44 25 45 36 / 0 0 0 20  
NEWTON 39 24 44 38 / 0 0 0 20  
ELDORADO 38 24 45 40 / 0 0 0 20  
WINFIELD-KWLD 41 27 48 42 / 0 0 0 10  
RUSSELL 40 23 38 30 / 0 0 0 20  
GREAT BEND 45 25 41 32 / 0 0 0 20  
SALINA 40 22 42 35 / 0 0 0 20  
MCPHERSON 42 23 43 35 / 0 0 0 20  
COFFEYVILLE 37 25 47 40 / 0 0 0 20  
CHANUTE 34 23 45 38 / 0 0 0 30  
IOLA 34 22 44 37 / 0 0 0 30  
PARSONS-KPPF 36 24 46 39 / 0 0 0 20  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MWM  
LONG TERM...MWM  
AVIATION...PJH  
 
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