422  
FXUS63 KICT 071041  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
541 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
AN MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS IS  
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS AS WE MOVE  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A CLUSTER OF OTHER STORMS HAS  
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY  
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL KS NOW MAY BE REINFORCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS  
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION  
LATER IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS FAIRLY LOW  
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE SFC  
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES. THE CURRENT PLAN IS TO MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED  
STORMS ALONG THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE KANSAS  
TURNPIKE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY SPREADING POPS  
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE DIMINISHING  
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE  
BOUNDARY WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 105+ RANGE ONCE  
AGAIN AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. FURTHER  
NORTH, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT LOW  
LEVEL POOLING OF DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RESULT IN A HUMID DAY WITH  
HEAT INDICES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.  
 
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ON  
FRIDAY AND POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WERE REMOVED. MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S  
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOWER 70S YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE  
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE. WE PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE  
HEAT HEADLINE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
SAT...THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA  
LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME REMAINS  
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 88 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE, WARMEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 RETURNING TO CENTRAL  
KANSAS. HEAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 98-103 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED. A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL DRIVE A  
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BREAKING  
DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA THROUGH TUE WHILE  
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS  
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. SOME  
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON,  
HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS  
CENTRAL KANSAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 100 74 94 71 / 40 30 10 10  
HUTCHINSON 99 72 93 70 / 50 30 10 0  
NEWTON 98 74 92 70 / 40 30 10 0  
ELDORADO 98 74 92 70 / 30 30 10 10  
WINFIELD-KWLD 103 76 94 72 / 20 20 10 10  
RUSSELL 92 70 92 68 / 60 20 10 10  
GREAT BEND 94 71 92 69 / 60 20 0 10  
SALINA 95 72 92 70 / 60 20 10 0  
MCPHERSON 96 71 92 70 / 50 30 10 0  
COFFEYVILLE 103 78 97 73 / 20 30 10 10  
CHANUTE 101 78 94 72 / 20 30 10 10  
IOLA 100 76 92 71 / 20 30 10 10  
PARSONS-KPPF 101 78 97 73 / 20 30 10 10  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-  
053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MWM  
LONG TERM...MWM  
AVIATION...CDJ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page