614  
FXUS63 KICT 192355  
AFDICT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
655 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
* LATE-SEASON SNOW AND COLD TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
 
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER  
TO MUCH, OF NOT ALL, OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RECORD, OR NEAR-RECORD,  
COLD TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST: INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE FLINT HILLS AREA OF SE  
KS. ADDITIONALLY, I EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO  
INCLUDE PARTS OF THE FLINT HILLS AREA.  
 
TIMING: ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS, THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM  
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7AM TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, THE  
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY TO MID-MORNING TUESDAY.  
 
SNOW AMOUNTS: A BROAD SWATH OF 1-4" IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN  
AND EASTERN KS (LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KS, HIGHEST ALONG THE I-70  
CORRIDOR).  
 
DISCUSSION  
 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AN UNUSUALLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR IS  
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BOOSTED BY ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS  
ALOFT AND A STRONG SFC HIGH NOSING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE  
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A STRONG S/W IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN  
PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, AN AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL  
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS OF AN  
UPPER JET OVERSPREADING THE AREA, LEADING TO MODEST LARGE-SCALE  
FORCING FOR ASCENT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY HELP TO AUGMENT  
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING LAYER  
OF MOISTURE IN THE SNOW-GROWTH REGION, AND SUFFICIENTLY COLD SFC  
TEMPS, SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PIVOTING  
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP MAY INITIALLY START AS A RAIN/SLEET/SNOW  
MIX BEFORE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. BASED ON FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE DATA, IT APPEARS THAT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW.  
 
IRONICALLY, THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS NOT THE PRECIP  
TYPE, BUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS. ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS, THE COMBINATION  
OF LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND A REMARKABLY DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE (FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW RATES NEARING  
1"/HR. THIS SHOULD HELP OVERCOME ANY AREAS WITH WARMER GROUND/ROAD  
TEMPS, LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS, THE BATTLE  
BETWEEN SNOW RATES AND GROUND/SURFACE TEMPS MAKES THE SNOWFALL  
FORECAST LESS CERTAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY DRIER  
AIR ALOFT MAY ENCROACH ON SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY TUESDAY MORNING,  
POTENTIALLY SHORTENING THE PERIOD OF ALL SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE  
FLINT HILLS AREA OF SE KS MAY HOLD THAT BETTER MOISTURE LONGER,  
ALLOWING A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW. BASED ON THIS, I HAVE  
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO MATCH WHERE THE BEST  
OVERLAP OF SNOWFALL RATES AND DURATION IS EXPECTED, AND WHERE  
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATING IS THE HIGHEST.  
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WOULD EVEN PUT THE WICHITA METRO IN PLAY  
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS AND AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF SOME  
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING MAY IMPACT AMOUNTS,  
WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY  
MONITORED IN LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES, THOUGH.  
 
PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.  
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, THE LATE-SEASON TIMING SHOULD FAVOR  
A QUICKER MELTING OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ON HARD-TOP/PAVED SURFACES,  
WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME LINGERING  
MOISTURE AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW  
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD FREEZE  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE SOME  
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OF AS LOW AS THEY  
OTHERWISE COULD, BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR  
MOST AREAS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. OF COURSE, ANY AREA WITH  
LINGERING SNOWCOVER WILL BE EVEN MORE AT RISK. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL COME CLOSE TO, OR EVEN BREAK, SOME  
RECORDS. PLEASE SEE THE "CLIMATE" SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION REGARDING TEMP AND SNOWFALL RECORDS.  
 
TO, HOPEFULLY, AVOID CONFUSION WITH HEADLINES, WE LEFT THE FREEZE  
WATCH AS-IS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WED AM PERIOD. IT'S NOT AN  
ISSUE OF IF IT WILL OCCUR, BUT SIMPLY HOLDING OFF TO AVOID  
CONFUSION WITH THE CURRENT SNOW AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.  
 
MARTIN  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WORK WEEK, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A PRONOUNCED SW FLOW  
ALOFT PATTERN. A WAVE OR TWO MAY MOVE THROUGH THU/FRI, AFFORDING AT  
LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND  
AND, ESPECIALLY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP APPEARS  
LIKELY.  
 
MARTIN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS  
SNOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL KS AND SPREADS SOUTH. GOOD LIFT AND  
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KRSL, KSLN AND KGBD. RAIN AND  
SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ONLY SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE  
REST OF THE SITES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AS LIFT DEPARTS. -HOWERTON  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH, OR BREAK, RECORD LOWS BOTH TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPS MAY BE IN JEOPARDY AS  
WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST.  
 
REGARDING SNOWFALL, IF MORE THAN 0.2" OF SNOW IS MEASURED AT THE  
WICHITA AIRPORT (KICT), IT WOULD BE THE LARGEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD  
TO OCCUR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING SEASON.  
 
MARTIN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
WICHITA-KICT 31 48 29 55 / 70 40 0 0  
HUTCHINSON 29 45 28 54 / 90 30 0 0  
NEWTON 30 45 28 54 / 90 50 0 0  
ELDORADO 32 46 29 55 / 70 70 0 0  
WINFIELD-KWLD 33 49 30 57 / 40 40 0 0  
RUSSELL 27 43 25 52 / 100 10 0 0  
GREAT BEND 26 44 25 51 / 100 10 0 0  
SALINA 30 46 27 54 / 100 30 0 0  
MCPHERSON 29 45 27 53 / 100 40 0 0  
COFFEYVILLE 35 47 29 57 / 20 70 0 0  
CHANUTE 34 45 29 55 / 50 80 0 0  
IOLA 34 44 28 54 / 50 80 0 0  
PARSONS-KPPF 35 46 29 56 / 30 80 0 0  
 

 
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING  
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT  
TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ069-082-083-  
091.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR  
KSZ070>072-095-096.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...RM  
AVIATION...PJH  
CLIMATE...RM  
 
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