353
FXUS63 KICT 250502
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT DID LOWER
MAXES FOR THURSDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
- BRIEF COOL-DOWN LIKELY FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST. FAIRLY COMPLEX SURFACE
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MO, TO JUST NORTH OF THE KS TURNPIKE AND IT BECOMES MORE OF A
DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
FOG BURNED OFF A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO SURFACE WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FOG THIS MORNING WAS ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED FEET THICK COMPARED TO AROUND 1-2KFT YESTERDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL BUILD BACK-IN ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BE NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL SETUP MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.
AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400 AND
WILL RUN WITH AN ADVISORY IN THOSE LOCATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR
WICHITA, UNLIKE LAST EVENING, NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FOG UNTIL A COUPLE
HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE THU.
ONE OF THE BIG CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE FORECASTS WAS TO
KNOCK HIGHS DOWN QUITE A BIT FOR THU, DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
FOG LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
FEEL THAT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14 WILL
EXPERIENCE THE BIGGEST AFFECT OF THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, INCLUDING
SALINA AND MCPHERSON. MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE HIGHS GET
OUT OF THE 50S, WHICH WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE OVER WESTERN KS, DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL
INCREASE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS WITH REGARDS TO THE SHORTWAVE
TO COME THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
MUCH SLOWER AND AS A MORE PHASED TROUGH. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD DISTINCT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES WITH LATEST RUNS PHASING THE
TWO PIECES OF ENERGY AND SLOWING IT DOWN. SO THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL SUN MORNING, WHICH DOES LEAD TO
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY WITH MUCH COOLER READING FOR SUNDAY. AFTER WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 30S FOR MONDAY, WE WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE 40S AND
50S FOR TUE AS WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BAD NEWS IS
THAT THIS PATTERN WILL STILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
SEEN FOR RSL AND SLN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ALL SITES SEEING PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09-17Z. LOW VIS AND CIGS WILL
LIFT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS SITES AROUND 18Z
WITH CENTRAL KANSAS SITES IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF ANOTHER EVENT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...AMD
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