769
FXUS63 KSGF 101911
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
211 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MO TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
- SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS,
WITH A SECONDARY RISK OF TORNADOES.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS,
AND SATURATED SOILS. AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY
DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY, AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. MEANWHILE,
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S HAVE SUPPORTED AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100. WHILE A CUMULUS FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GIVEN STOUT CAP IN THE PLACE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
SLOWLY DROP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS RATHER LOW
ON THE ACTIVITY SINKING INTO OUR AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS CAN
BE GLEANED FROM AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL SHEAR TONIGHT,
DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/KG) LINGERING
OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, FORCING BECOMES LESS PRONOUNCED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, IF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERPERFORM AND/OR ESTABLISH A COLD POOL WE COULD
SEE CONVECTION MEANDER INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MO. SPC DENOTES THIS LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO
WITH A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) SEVERE RISK
NUDGING INTO THE AREA, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MESOSCALE TRENDS AS THEY UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THURSDAY:
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHEAST WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
3000-4000+ J/KG), DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS), AND STEEP
MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7.5-8.0 C/KM). THESE PARAMETERS WILL
ALIGN IN AN ENHANCED 850MB AND MID-LEVEL FLOW, SUPPORTING
ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MULTI-CELL AND/OR SUPERCELLS, BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WE ARE EXPECTING
PRIMARY HAZARDS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
GOLFBALLS SIZED HAIL. THE TORNADO RISK REMAINS LOW AND CONFINED
TO CENTRAL MO AND NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECASTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS MESOSCALE TRENDS UNFOLD, AS JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
TORNADOES. RRFS CAPTURES A GOOD AGREEMENT AS SEEN WITH
PAINTBALLS OVERLAPPING WITH DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 2 TO 4 PM, AND
SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 5) SEVERE RISK, WITH THE BEST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
MEANWHILE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE SHOULD LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY:
COOLER ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL, A
PLEASANT DAY WITH A BREAK FROM THE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THE PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE, THE
FRONT THAT CLEARED THE AREA ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO OUR VICINITY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE, MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE IS HITTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHT (2
OF 5) SEVERE RISK JUST TO THE NORTH OF HERE ON SATURDAY, THOUGH
ENSEMBLE TRENDS SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION MAY BE NECESSARY
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. ON THE OTHER NOTE, THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REACH TOWARDS 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH,
SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS, AND SATURATED SOILS WILL SUPPORT
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ON SATURDAY. THERE
IS SMALL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF EACH ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH A GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR UPDATES. RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY, PERHAPS MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AS THE FRONT
WAFFLES AROUND.
NEXT WEEK:
MUCH COOLER TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-40%), THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
VARIES ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. WIND GUSTS TAPER OFF TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. A CUMULUS FIELD OVERSPREADS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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