913
FXUS63 KSGF 170833
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOTTEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100, LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TODAY: LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECTING AROUND 15-25%
COVERAGE. LIGHTNING IS THE ONLY HAZARD. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
SATURDAY: SATURDAY MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20% SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. WARMER AIR STARTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SUNDAY: HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. COULD AGAIN SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (15-25% CHANCE).
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: THESE WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A PLUME OF EVEN HOTTER AIR (850MB TEMPS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 24C) MOVES OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105. HEATRISK SHOWS VALUES OF MODERATE TO MAJOR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY, BRINGING
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED, SO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST TO NOT GET INTO SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, WHICH IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. AS
SUCH, MAINLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS, BUT COULD SEE TEMPORARY
LOWERED CONDITIONS UNDER ANY CONVECTION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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