174  
FXUS63 KSGF 072301  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
501 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- 30-60% CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OZARK  
PLATEAU.  
 
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES PAIRED WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR  
WINTER PRECIP ARE LOOKING LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) AS EARLY AS  
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY OF IMPORTANT  
DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR A WINTRY  
MIX CAUSING AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, WITH  
THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025  
 
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: THE LARGELY ZONAL FLOW  
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WAS OCCURING AT 850MB WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES VARIED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIDDLE 30S ACROSS  
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND LOW TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE  
AREA. THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE TO PRODUCE MORE OF A  
SPRINKLE/SHOWER MIXTURE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHER LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WILL  
MOVE IN THIS EVENING. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY LAYER  
JUST BELOW 850MB THEREFORE GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX  
DOWN FROM THIS LAYER AT TIMES.  
 
DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LOW  
LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE/NOSE INTO  
THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH  
1KM WILL LIKELY CREATE MORE DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 9PM.  
TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS WETBULB WITH AREAS  
NEAR MARIES AND PHELPS COUNTIES PERHAPS DROPPING CLOSE TO  
32-34DEG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A  
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE  
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE  
40-60% RANGE FOR THE DRIZZLE WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH  
EXPECTED. STRATUS BUILD DOWN SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR VISIBILITIES  
TO DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES (HREF PROBS OF VIS LESS THAN 1  
MILE AT 40-50%) ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ACT TO DECREASE THE DRIZZLE CHANCES  
HOWEVER CLOUD COVER MAY BE STUBBORN TO ERODE GIVEN THE NORTHERLY  
FLOW. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS. WE CONTINUE TO GO  
WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH LOW/MID 40S  
NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MISSOURI. IF CLOUDS CLEAR FASTER THEN WE COULD SEE WARMER TEMPS  
THAN THIS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT CLOUDS ERODE FAST  
ENOUGH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025  
 
SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US  
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. NBM HIGH TEMP SPREADS ARE SMALL WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
 
NEXT WEEK: A COMPLEX AND IMPACTFUL TIME PERIOD IS LOOKING TO  
TAKE SHAPE AS SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE  
COMBINATION OF A BROAD WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE  
WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE UP INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW  
LEVEL JET/WARM NOSE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA  
WITH IT NOSING TOWARDS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE  
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL A SHALLOW COLD  
AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS AS  
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED FREEZING LINE MAKES IT  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS SEEM TO INDICATE A POTENTIALLY  
STRONGER WARM NOSE REACHING THE AREA WHICH COULD CREATE MORE OF  
A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA, PERHAPS INCREASING OUR FREEZING  
RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME RANGE IT CAN BE DIFFICULT  
FOR GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE THE WARM NOSE AND THE SHALLOW COLD  
AIRMASS. THEREFORE EXPECT SOME CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS IN THE  
FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO  
SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 44 WITH GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH  
OF SNOW NORTH OF I-44. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MATCHES TO OUR ICE  
STORM/FREEZING RAIN CLIMATOLOGY, HOWEVER THE DURATION OF THE  
PRECIP MAY NOT MATCH AS IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK  
HITTING SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN THEN OBVIOUSLY THIS  
COULD INCREASE THE CONCERN.  
 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME SORT OF BREAK IN THE PRECIP  
EITHER TUESDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICK TO ENTER THE SOUTHWEST US AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. TRENDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS ON THIS  
SYSTEM HAVE NOW BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH WHICH  
COULD ALLOW FOR A FARTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW, FARTHER SOUTH WARM  
NOSE AND FARTHER SOUTH FREEZING LINE. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE  
SNOW PROBS VERSUS ICE. THERE ARE ACTUALLY A FEW COMPONENTS OF  
THE HEAVY SNOW CLIMATOLOGY SHOWING UP NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN  
THE PHASED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE, 850MB LOW TRACK NEAR/OVER  
THE AREA AND SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THAT  
BEING SAID, LATEST NBM PROBS FOR SNOW GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IS  
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHER PROBS NORTH OF THE AREA.  
 
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX CONTINUES  
TO INDICATE A 40-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS FROM  
WINTER PRECIP, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-44 INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI  
WHICH SEEMS TO BE BASED MAINLY ON THE SNOW COMPONENT. WE  
SUSPECT THESE PERCENTAGES WILL INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER. WE  
ALSO THINK THAT THE DETAILS OF THESE EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE  
CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEMS BECOME BETTER  
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK AND IN THE RANGE OF HIGH RES  
GUIDANCE. EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY UP ON THE FORECAST AS WE  
HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2025  
 
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CEILINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING  
REMAIN MVFR AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET, BEFORE FURTHER  
DETERIORATING INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING IFR TO LIFR. THIS WILL  
FEATURE AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE, REDUCED VISIBILITIES AROUND 2  
TO 4 MILES, AND CEILINGS AROUND 300 TO 700 FEET. EVEN SOME AREAS  
OF PATCHY FOG MAY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS AROUND 40 KNOTS CAN BE  
EXPECTED OVER KBBG AND KSGF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS  
LIGHT DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH REDUCED CEILINGS.  
MEANWHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT, BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FRONTAL  
PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
 
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