526
FXUS63 KSGF 041902
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY (50-90%). NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MONITORING FOR LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS AS NOTED IN THE
LATEST SURFACE PLOTS AND IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE OZARKS FROM THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME AGITATED AND TOWERING
CUMULUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS SHOULD
PRODUCE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN AS THEY MOVE TO THE
NORTH. WHERE LIFT CAN BE MAXIMIZED, MAINLY ALONG THE I-49
CORRIDOR, ISOLATED STORMS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH RAINFALL A BIT HEAVIER, POSSIBLE UP TO A QUARTER
INCH. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN DRY THANKS TO THE SPOTTY NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THOUGH THE AREAS OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WESTERN OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN OZARKS, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-44 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE SHIFT
IN RAIN FALL AREA, OVERALL RAIN CHANCE DECREASE FRIDAY WITH ONLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAINFALL. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, AND NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLAINS IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS. WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM
THE GULF INTO THE REGION WPC HAS ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4) FOR FLOODING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ON MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS WITH GOOD, DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 500MB AND IN SOME PERIODS UP TO 250MB. THIS CAN BE SEEN
IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHICH RANGE FROM 1.4 TO AS MUCH
AS 2.0 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND WILL ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHERE
RAIN OCCURS.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND LIFT TOWARDS
THE OZARKS ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW IS ESSENTIALLY STUCK UNDER A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SLOW
MOVEMENT UNTIL THE LOW IS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
THE LIMITED LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY RANGE FROM 20 TO 80% WITH
THE BEST PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MOST
PART MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THERE
DOES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL, FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, OF SEEING AN
INCH OR MORE WITH PROBABILITIES FROM 15 TO 35%. OTHER THAN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE WETTER PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL BUT MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL WITH LESS COVERAGE.
THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL, WILL REMAIN SOMETHING WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND IN TO
THE END OF MAY HAVE PRODUCE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH SOIL
MOISTURE AND SURFACE WATER FOR MANY AREAS PRIMED AS A RESULT.
THE PATTERN DOES CHANGE INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
LOW THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE AND LINGER IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL TREND FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS WEEKEND TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WARM AND WET TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF JUNE AS
WELL BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER. THE FORECASTS FROM JUNE 9TH THROUGH THE 17TH LEANS THE
CHANCES TOWARDS SEEING WARMER (40-50%) AND WETTER (30-40%) THAN
AVERAGE CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM DYNAMICAL
MODELS FAVORING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS
THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF 500MB WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN
AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST, FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
JUNE. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? THIS PATTERN MAY SIGNAL A PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE MONTH OF JUNE WHICH IS SUPPORTED FROM SOME
GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS, ENSO INDICIES AND OTHER
TELECONNECTIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 0Z. THIS WOULD INCLUDE A LIGHTNING RISK AND
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGVIS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE LOW CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z, LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS
(OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) AND SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...NELSON
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