676
FXUS63 KSGF 090915
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY-BREEZY.
2. FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
3. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY-SUNDAY.
4. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
5. SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021
IT WAS A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH STANDARDS, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF
A FALL IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERIOD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BOOST ABOVE
CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS.
00Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWED A DRY AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
WITH FWD AND SHV SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S, THEREFORE WE
WENT LOWER ON DEWPOINTS TODAY, CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE NBM,
WHICH WAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR
RH VALUES TO REACH THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. WHILE THIS IS
NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS DAYS, THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONGER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFERS OF
25-35KTS AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHORT FUSED ONE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA IF
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT BECOME STRONGER TODAY. THIS ESPECIALLY
WILL BE TRUE IF WE DO INDEED GET SOME DECENT CLEARING/SUNSHINE.
THEREFORE THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF
WILDFIRES/GRASSFIRE/NATURAL COVER FIRES THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
FUELS ARE QUIET DRY.
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND THERE
COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.
THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AREA
EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING HELD BACK SOME,
HOWEVER STILL QUITE MILD, NEAR 70. BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY AFTER 9-10PM), THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM FORT SCOTT, KANSAS SHOWS STRONG
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800MB, THEREFORE THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. AT THIS POINT, MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THESE STORMS BARELY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST CWA,
WITH SOME SHOWING IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, ALONG THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
HOWEVER THE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 REMAIN MILD AND DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 60, WHICH
COULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 58 FROM 1990 AT SGF.
THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY
HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL PERHAPS
LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES DURING THE DAY AND EVENING THURSDAY. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS
AND CAN CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN
ON THE "COOL" SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
THREAT, HOWEVER THE REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTHEAST AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ITS JUST HARD TO PINPOINT THE
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
BY SUNDAY HOWEVER, MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST, TO START EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS AND PERHAPS
BECOMING OCCLUDED. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST, PROBABLY LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT AS THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS JUNCTURE.
ALL THAT SAID, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GUIDANCE/THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED TOO MUCH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT FROM MODEL
ENSEMBLES THAT SHOW VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES (50-60%) OF AN
AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE THIS TOTAL WILL COME SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL
ROUNDS, IT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OVER TIME, GIVEN THE LACK
OF VEGETATION THIS TIME OF YEAR. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF
20 DEGREES PLUS FOR THE MONDAY PERIOD ONWARD POINTS TO A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND PERHAPS ANOTHER
ONE MOVES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY UP ON THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
ISSUE AT THE MOMENT IS SOME HAZE IN JOPLIN THAT CREATING MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WE THINK THE HAZE MIGHT BE FROM A FIRE THAT OCCURRED
IN DELAWARE COUNTY OKLAHOMA, SO IT'S DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW LONG
THE HAZE WILL LAST.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED
TONIGHT, AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...CRAMER
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