255
FXUS63 KSGF 291121
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
621 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS MORNING
(15-30%), (20-40%) THIS AFTERNOON, AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
(15-30%) OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-80%) OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-49. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER AREAS THAT ARE MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
65. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ACCUMULATING RAINFALL THAT THOSE
AREAS SAW ON TUESDAY AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER THAT AIDED IN FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA IS STILL WARM
AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND CLOUDS COVERING SW MO
DUE TO A SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE
ALSO A FEW SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY COVER MOST OF SE KS/SW MO. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING HAS OCCURRED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TODAY WILL STILL BE WARM, BUT A A TAD COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL
STICK AROUND AND KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL START NORTHEASTERLY TODAY, BUT EVENTUALLY
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SW MO THIS
AFTERNOON DEPARTING FROM THE LARGER SURFACE LOW AND BRINGS A
20-40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND WILL BE
MAINLY CONFIDED TO SW MO. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WILL HAVE
QUITE THE SPREAD DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS KEEP THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE
EASTERN CWA SEES MID 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING (15-30%) AND IN THE
AFTERNOON (30-50%). THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY TO TODAY'S CONVECTION AND BE PRIMARILY OVER SW MO. NO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A
SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY AND BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN (40-80%) AS WELL
AS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-44 WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 1". NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER THE SE CONUS AND USHERS IN MOISTURE TO
THE EASTERN OZARKS. BOTH DAYS FEATURE ~20% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AS WE SIT IN THE
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THEN, SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WE
HANGOUT IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. TUESDAY STARTS TO GET
WARM AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, THEN AGAIN VERY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE 12Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE, BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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