275
FXUS63 KSGF 232308
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE AREA WITH MAYBE A
FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP OVER MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH SOME UPPER 70S TEMPERATURES IN OUR FAR WESTERN CWA.
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
IN THE LONGER TERM, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A BRIEF WARMUP AND THEN A
COOL-DOWN NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
FOR TONIGHT, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 AM UNTIL AROUND 9 AM. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST WORDING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION
AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE AREA ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OUT WEST
AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK IN ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM, WITH LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND MID TO POSSIBLY
SOME UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY OUT WEST.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL MAINLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LOW AT BEST WITH MAIN FORCING WELL TO
THE NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS FIRST FRONT WON'T
ALTER TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S THROUGH MONDAY.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK (OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST RANGE). A SECOND FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS ONE WILL BRING COOLER AIR
TO THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY FROM CANADA INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS OUR CWA. CURRENTLY, WE ARE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
TUESDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM EITHER, SO THE DROUGHT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2020
CLEAR SKIES ARE CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT SSE SURFACE WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS POINT TO
SOME AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS AT BBG, WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG FROM
AROUND 10-13Z. EXPECT FOG TO BE MORE PATCHY FOR SGF/JLN AROUND
THIS TIMEFRAME AND BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES.
OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONGSIDE
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
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