642
FXUS63 KSGF 200456
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY ARE DRIVEN BY
THE DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
DIP INTO THE LOW 70S. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING
WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20-30 MPH. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE OZARKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICIES NEAR 100 IN MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS FLOW BRINGS THE RETURN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018
THE MAIN STORYLINE LOOKING AHEAD WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG LOW KICKS OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE OZARK REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AR, WITH RAIN
CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY, YET NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE, THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE AR/MO BORDER. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
SATURDAY-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE RISK FOR THUNDER OR SEVERE
WEATHER. GENERALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
0.25-0.75 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL
ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE U.S., EJECTING A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY HELP AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY. LIKEWISE, THIS TROUGH WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NOTED BY THE EXTENDED CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WILL INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KJLN.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF
THE TERMINALS. THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN/PEREZ
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN/PEREZ
AVIATION...RABERDING
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