511
FXUS63 KSGF 060450
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TWO MAIN AREAS
TO WATCH FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE (1) ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR INTO SE KANSAS, AND (2) ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
PER THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING, THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM, DRY AIR
ABOVE THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION (LFC). THIS HAS RESULTED IN
CUMULUS-PANCAKES, WHERE UPDRAFTS (CLOUDS) FLATTEN OUT ONCE THEY
MEET THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. HAD MLCAPE VALUES BEEN HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON (> 1000 J/KG THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE), UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE
PUNCHED THROUGH THE DRY AIR, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY HAVE BEEN
MORE NUMEROUS. INSTEAD, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ENJOYED A DRY DAY.
ELSEWHERE, WHERE THE MID-LEVELS ARE LESS DRY AND WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1500 J/KG, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN BOTH THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
LOW THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING, IT WOULD LIKELY MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE
0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT, EXCEPT THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE AS DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE, AS UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FLATTEN OUT, AND
INSTEAD, DEVELOP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE AROUND NOON OR LATER ALONG SOLAR- OR
TERRAIN- INDUCED BOUNDARIES. WHILE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS AND PENNY
HAIL GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER MLCAPE VALUES. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 65, WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE A LITTLE WEAKER. AND, WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST, ANY POP-UP STORMS WILL MOVE IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STATUS-QUO THROUGH MID-WEEK AS BROAD
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO CHANGE-UP BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER- LEVEL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAILY HIGHS
WILL APPROACH 90-95, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE HUNDOS. WHILE
IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 F) FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONG CAPPING, AND SO DAY-TIME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE VERY LIMITED. INSTEAD, THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME PRONE TO
A PARADE OF NOCTURNAL MCSS AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INTO SE KANSAS AND SW
MISSOURI. CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH THE NBM AND DETERMINISTICS
(GFS/ECMWF) ARE BEGINNING TO HINT TOWARD A WET END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WILL POP UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING KSGF/KBBG AND
AREAS EAST OF THOSE SITES. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR THOSE
AERODROMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KJLN, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBANO
LONG TERM...ALBANO
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
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