966
FXUS63 KSGF 220851
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT HAS
BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR
EASTERN OZARKS. THE 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY DRY AIRMASS
THEREFORE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THESE CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS
HAVE KEPT TEMPS ABOUT 20-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT WITH TEENS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB (-3 TO 0C) WILL ALSO ADVECT
IN BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS COMBINED WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A WARMER START TO THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WITH A FEW AREAS PUSHING 40
DEGREES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME PASSING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S. AREAS WITH
DEEPER SNOW PACK AND VALLEYS/WIND PROTECTED AREAS MAY DROP A
LITTLE LOWER, CLOSER TO 20 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SUNDAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE (4-7C) THEREFORE
NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS AT LEAST SEEING
LOWER 50S WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING MIDDLE 50S. SIGNIFICANT
MELTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: EVEN WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA MONDAY (9-12C), THIS IS AROUND THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY STUDY WOULD SUGGEST
DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. IF STRONGER CLEARING OCCURS THEN WE COULD SEE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE LOOKS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT/DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICK TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PRETTY DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SHOWN WITH THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. LATEST NBM AND
LREF PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DROPPED SOME AND ARE AT 10-25 PERCENT
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD. MOISTURE MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN ITS PROGRESSIVE
NATURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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