103
FXUS63 KSGF 080540
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVEN
LESSER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. MOST
STAY DRY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-70% THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY, RETURNING INTO THE 90S
MIDWEEK. MODERATE HEAT RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 HAVE CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT OF ML CAPES
APPROACHING 2000J/KG. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 79 ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING HAVE BEEN REACHED AND THE CUMULUS FIELD HAS SINCE
BLOSSOMED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON: HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44, CLOSER TO
THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING AT THE PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS SEEMS TO BE WEAK 0-3KM
THETA E DIFFS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RH ABOVE 600MB, HOWEVER LIKE
PREVIOUS DAYS, WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50MPH, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET GIVEN LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EXIT OF THE
UPPER LOW. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
AGAIN HOWEVER NOT SEEING A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING DENSE OR OVERLY
WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE EVEN FURTHER AWAY ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF SPRINGFIELD MAY REACH 90.
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN US HOWEVER
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE BETTER RESOLVED ONCE WE GET INTO THE MESOSCALE RANGE
(24-48HRS BEFORE EVENT).
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY ON THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE MCS IS
UNCERTAIN BUT MOST GUIDANCE TAKES IT INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WEAKENS IT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR ANY BOUNDARIES THAT COULD FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING
THE DAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA IF STORMS CAN RE-FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY THEN SLIDES DOWN INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS FOR STORMS HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY IN EXACT TIMING AND
CHANCES GIVEN THAT THE PRECEDING DAYS STORMS WILL AFFECT THE
THERMO ENVIRONMENT OF THE DAY BEFORE. CURRENTLY RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE 40-70% RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HOWEVER THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH FUTURE UPDATES. THE WPC CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL HAS INCREASED INTO THE 30-50% RANGE WHICH SUGGESTS AN
INCREASING TREND FOR AT LEAST ONE MCS TO TRAVERSE THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS THEN SHOWS A
FURTHER SOUTH TREND WITH PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS SUNDAY ONWARD.
MODERATE HEAT RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: PRECIP CHANCES WILL
HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPS/HEAT THESE TWO DAYS HOWEVER THE LATEST NWS
HEAT RISK TOOL SHOWS THE AREA IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY WITH EVEN
SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO TEMPS IN
THE LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICIES TO REACH 100 HOWEVER ITS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS. MAIN MESSAGE IS TO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
THE HEAT IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE VFR AT THE REGIONS TAF
SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN VALLEYS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE KBBG SITE
AROUND SUNRISE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...HATCH
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