341
FXUS63 KSGF 082320
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT.
2. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
3. POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
4. COLD AIR LOOMING AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ACTIVE JET ENERGY FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS AND ALL THE WAY INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE BULK OF THE MORE MODERATE RAIN WITH THE CURRENT
SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH STRATUS AND ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY
DROPPING BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
FRIDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT, BUT WILL SEE SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS START TO MOVE BACK IN AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
AND AS THE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE, WE SHOULD START TO SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGIN
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AND QPF EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THIS SYSTEM WE ARE
GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S
FOR HIGHS, BUT MAY HAVE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A DEEP LOW OVER
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AT THE
SURFACE AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 OUT WEST ON MONDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD
OF THE STRONG LOW. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ON TUESDAY. FAVORABLE SHEAR, JET
DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER SOME
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. MAIN
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOWFALL ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN
SOME LOCATIONS. KBBG WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES OF A HALF
MILE OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS RANGING FROM
200 TO 900 FEET. LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. SCATTERED MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PEREZ
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