499
FXUS63 KSGF 021142
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG AND LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MO INTO THIS MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
LARGE SCALE PATTERN:
- 500MB PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST, WITH NW FLOW OVER THE CWA
- A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVING NEARBY TODAY (SOUTH) AND TONIGHT
(NORTHEAST)
- PATTERN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE WESTERN
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG INTO THIS MORNING:
- OBSERVED DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS LAKE OF THE OZARK
TO THE ROLLA AREA.
- TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING, WITH LIMITED (< 40%)
PROBABILITIES FOR SUBFREEZING ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE COLDEST AREAS. GIVEN LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG
IMPACTS, STUCK WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MENTIONING LOCALIZED
SLICK SPOTS.
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY:
- SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL LEAD TO A SHARP GRADIENT IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA.
- CURRENTLY HAVE A ~20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF HWY 60.
RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT:
- ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TONIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES, BUT THAT POTENTIAL IS
CURRENTLY <15%, SO NO OFFICIAL MENTION OF RAIN.
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SO WILL WATCH FOR CHANGES IN RAIN
EXPECTATIONS CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
- TODAY: HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL MO,
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT, TO THE 50S OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA.
- SATURDAY: HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- SUNDAY: HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
- THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY THEN FLATTENS TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO MID-WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 60S EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
CHANGING PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK:
- AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MAY TRY TO BREAK DOWN
AND SEND ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
- RESULTS IN A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF RAIN AT KBBG TODAY, FOLLOWING BY MVFR
CEILINGS AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG TONIGHT.
KJLN AND KSGF ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT FOG.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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