232
FXUS63 KSGF 260533
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH AND
QUARTER- SIZED HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS, WITH A LOWER-END
RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO, PRIMARILY WEST OF I-49.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY. BANDS
OF 2 TO 4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 7" WITHIN THESE
HEAVY BANDS.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60MPH.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON IN A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY THAT
LIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 60. THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD
LIGHTNING WITH THEM AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
LITTLE STORMS ARE JUST THE APPETIZER FOR OUR BIGGER EVENT LATER
TODAY. AN MCS COMPLEX HAS BEEN SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH
KANSAS TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA AND BRING A ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO TO OCCUR WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT'LL DEPEND ON IF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
CAN LINE UP JUST RIGHT. SO FAR, THE SHEAR HASN'T BEEN TOO
IMPRESSIVE (0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25KTS) AND DOESN'T START
RAMPING UP UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL JET GETS GOING LATER TONIGHT (0-1
KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS) AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, OUR
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE
BULK OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN, A STALLED FRONT SETS UP
OVER SOUTHERN MO AND ALLOWS THE STORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SPC HAS ALREADY PUT OUT A DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 60%
CHANCE FOR A WATCH AT LEAST FOR OUR WESTERN CWA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. WPC HAS PUT OUT A DISCUSSION REGARDING THE
RAINFALL TOTALS INCOMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE COULD SEE INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2.5"/HR WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2-4" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 7". THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
IMPACTFUL TO SE KS AND WEST-CENTRAL MO WHERE THE MODERATE RISK
(3/4) FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TODAY. WE WANT TO STRESS
THAT THIS COULD BE AN OVERNIGHT FLOODING SITUATION AS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW RIVERS IN THE
AREA ARE FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS
WELL. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN, AND PLEASE DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CONUS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS
RIDGING PATTERN IS GOING TO PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
TO HIGH 20S C; EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT INDICIES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH HIGH 90S F TO 100 F
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING TO THE LOW 100S F WITHIN THE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE FOR A MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
(3/4) WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVING EXTREME (4/4)
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF JULY. FOR THE
EXPECTED HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, REMEMBER TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND
BE ABLE TO HAVE ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONED INDOORS.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE WPC HAS A LIKELY CHANCE (70-80%) FOR
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY (AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES 87-89 F), AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PERSISTENT HEAT FORECAST AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ABOVE THE AREA. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PAIR WITH THIS EXPECTED HEAT WAVE WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FOR THE BEGGINING OF JULY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A FEW INTERMITTENT
BREAKS THROUGHOUT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS, AS VISIBILITIES DROP WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY PRIMARILY AT KSGF AND KJLN AROUND 17Z,
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MELTO
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