325
FXUS63 KSGF 050526
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WARM TO AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TO CELEBRATE THE HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE
COOLING AND HYDRATION OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD ALONG WITH LIGHTNING
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THOSE OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO BE
WEATHER AWARE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES (20-50%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD ZONAL TYPE FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WAS
DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS INTO MISSOURI WHERE AN ONGOING MCS WAS
TRACKING THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54, THE AIRMASS WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH ML CAPES
AROUND 2500J/KG HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WAS WEAK, AROUND 20KTS. IT
WAS VERY HUMID WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 90 AND DEWS IN THE MIDDLE
70S. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF THE MCS THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS, TOWARDS THE
AREA. THERE WAS AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT: SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH THE CURRENT MCS OVER THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR OF
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RRFS IS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AND
WITH THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER IT WAS A TAD NORTH.GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WE EXPECT THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST ALONG HIGHWAY 54 THIS AFTERNOON
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION
UNTIL 7PM FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHER STORMS, MORE ISOLATED/PULSE IN NATURE MAY ALSO FORM EITHER
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA. DECREASING INHIBITION, HIGH PW AND HIGH THETAE DIFFS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER LOCATIONS
EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE BETTER PULSE ENVIRONMENT.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS OUTDOOR EVENTS AND ACTIVITIES THEREFORE STAY
WEATHER AWARE THIS AFTERNOON. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUES AND
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE ONGOING COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH NORTH
OF SPRINGFIELD AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON POP UPS CAST
GREATER UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EARLIER DAY GUIDANCE SHOWED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING IN AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MOVES IN AND INTERACTS WITH THE INSTABILITY AND REMAINING
BOUNDARIES. ONE SCENARIO WE ARE STARTING TO SEE PLAY OUT IS THAT
ONCE THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH, THERE MAY BE SOME
SUBSIDENCE WHICH WOULD CAUSE A LULL/BREAK IN STORM POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS OTHER STORMS
REFIRE IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. IT IS THESE STORMS IN KANSAS THAT
WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-49. THERE IS A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD RISK TONIGHT IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE 12Z
HREF LPMM DOES SHOW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE LIKELY AS STORM EXPECTATIONS BECOME MORE
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY GOING
FORWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO
MOVE IN AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING. FOR SUNDAY, CURRENTLY
HAVE 20-50 POPS GOING GIVEN SCATTERED STORM EXPECTATIONS.
THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
HOWEVER HIGHER CHANCES EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE
A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...TITUS
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