225
FXUS63 KSGF 231017
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING VERTICALLY STACKED IN NATURE.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT TODAY
ACROSS THE OZARKS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN INITIAL BAND OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD REPRESENT THE FIRST APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SLUGS OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THAT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS SLOWLY
SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE MAY GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A TOUGH CALL WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER
AND THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT, THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. WE HAVE GONE RIGHT AT, OR
JUST BELOW THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WOULD YIELD
TEMPERATURES HANGING BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LESS
PRECIPITATION AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN WOULD RESULT IN MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL NOT CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE AND SEVERAL
LOBES OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SLIDING THROUGH. SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE
THEREFORE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP DUE TO A
STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OZARKS DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO OPEN UP
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
COOLING MID-LEVELS AND MODEST GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN
(SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S) SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 800-1100 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS
LONG AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISN'T TOO LARGE IN THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE.
WE MAY THEREFORE SEE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW-END
SEVERE HAIL (UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS). THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACH 8 C/KM. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE
LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY LOOK QUITE MILD WITH BRISK SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND THE TIMING OF
THAT FRONT.
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN END
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE MAY THEN PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK, A BIG WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S.
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
HOWEVER THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS THAT PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER BRIEF STINTS OF MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THE SAME SCENARIO WILL THEN BE IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT WITH MVFR
EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS
WE GET INTO LATE TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AROUND SPRINGFIELD. GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page