809
FXUS63 KSGF 271944
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH A GREATER RISK OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL IS THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH A SECONDARY DAMAGING WIND RISK.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOODING POTENTIAL
COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND COLD FRONT. AGITATED CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z CAP HAS LARGELY ERODED, AS CONFIRMED
BY OUR 18Z SOUNDING, LEAVING LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION FOR ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCH. STORMS IN THIS REGION ARE
ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN INITIALLY WITH THESE WESTERN STORMS ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
STORMS WILL GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT PARTICULARLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING PUSHING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SEVERE THREAT EAST
OF OUR AREA BY THE MID-TO-LATE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL SHARPLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTH AND REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
TUESDAY: BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTHERN AR OR SOUTHERN
MO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI. A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND RISK WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL, ANY STORMS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE
TERMINALS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS
IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING, CONVECTION WILL PUSH EAST, VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS
RETURN AND WINDS WILL VEER SHARPLY TO THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PARKER
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PARKER
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