729
FXUS63 KSGF 251942
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-50% CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEST OF SPRINGFIELD. THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS ARE POSSIBLE IT STORMS DEVELOP. HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 WITH AN ENHANCED RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. ALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS ROUND.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH TRAINING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25IN AND 0.75IN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.00IN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO KANSAS. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
PIECES OF ENERGY EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THE 12Z KSGF
SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRYING TO ADVECT IN UNDER SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION, GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP A
STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA (SB CAPE AROUND
2000J/KG).PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE) HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING - TONIGHT: THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND A 850MB JET WILL LIKELY FORCE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA IN OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO TRY TO FORM IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A
SECONDARY FRONT. THAT LEAVES AN UNCERTAIN STORM COVERAGE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL BE
FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE FORCING. 12Z HREF DATA ONLY SHOWS A
FEW CAMS WITH STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BEFORE 7PM
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE AFTER 9PM, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT LOW LEVEL JET. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED TO THE WEST
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA, THEY WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED. 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION. FORECAST LARGE HAIL PARAMETERS BETWEEN 6 AND 8
WOULD SUGGEST GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR SLIGHTLY LARGER COULD OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND
WEST OF A PITTSBURG, KANSAS TO JOPLIN TO PINEVILLE LINE.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT
THEREFORE THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL THAT STORMS WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN DRY FROM HIGHWAY 65 AND POINT EAST
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT: THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (20-40%) OF REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, LIKELY
WITH ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE. OTHERWISE ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE WARM FRONT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT INTO THE
AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT HOWEVER ML CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IF STORMS CAN BREAK THE CAP WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT FARTHER
NORTH FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT
TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE AREA DRY (STORMS ALL NORTH OF THE AREA), HOWEVER OTHER CAMS
DO CLIP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 WITH STORMS. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY: STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AS A FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON ANY MORNING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF
2000-3000J/KG OF ML CAPE WITH 50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SURFACE
TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO REACH THE LOWER 80S. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY TRY TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH WOULD REDUCE HELICITIES SLIGHTLY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY
GREATER THAN 2 INCH) AND DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 WILL BE IN THE
ZONE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND WE WILL NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FRONTAL TIMING. ALSO, IF THE STRONGER
ENERGY/LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, THEN THIS COULD REDUCE
THE NUMBER OF STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA.
PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY - FRIDAY: THE FRONT MAY TRY TO LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH
INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT FRONTAL
PLACEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO OR PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN/STORM FREE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 9PM WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AT JLN. SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT BBG WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT HOWEVER MAGNITUDES ARE
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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