341  
FXUS63 KSGF 082320  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT.  
 
2. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
3. POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
4. COLD AIR LOOMING AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER  
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH ACTIVE JET ENERGY FROM THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS AND ALL THE WAY INTO THE  
NORTHEAST U.S. THE BULK OF THE MORE MODERATE RAIN WITH THE CURRENT  
SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING  
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH STRATUS AND ADDITIONAL FOG  
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT,  
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY  
DROPPING BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.  
 
FRIDAY SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT, BUT WILL SEE SOME MID/HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS START TO MOVE BACK IN AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE  
WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN  
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING  
AND AS THE LIFT BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE  
SHORTWAVE, WE SHOULD START TO SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGIN  
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS  
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST  
POPS AND QPF EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THIS SYSTEM WE ARE  
GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND A THIRD OF  
AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S  
FOR HIGHS, BUT MAY HAVE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION  
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS  
EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A DEEP LOW OVER  
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AT THE  
SURFACE AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR  
60 OUT WEST ON MONDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD  
OF THE STRONG LOW. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY  
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED ON TUESDAY. FAVORABLE SHEAR, JET  
DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING GULF  
MOISTURE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.  
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER SOME  
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR  
SOUTHERN CWA.  
 
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS  
DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. MAIN  
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE  
AREA, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SNOWFALL ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA.  
 
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE NEXT  
WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO MOVE INTO THE  
AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IN  
SOME LOCATIONS. KBBG WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES OF A HALF  
MILE OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS RANGING FROM  
200 TO 900 FEET. LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TAF SITES  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON  
FRIDAY AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. SCATTERED MID TO  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG  
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG  
AVIATION...PEREZ  
 
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