982
FXUS63 KSGF 161758
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 115
WILL OCCUR.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM
NEVADA TO LEBANON TO ROLLA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
RISK.
- HEAT RETURNS TO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, INCLUDING SEVERE CHANCES, TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TODAY, AND TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UP A COUPLE
DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN LESS THAN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. LOOK FOR HIGHS AROUND 100 WITH MAX HEAD INDEX VALUES OF
105-115.
THE SEVERE THREAT AND AREA HAS BEEN REFINED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, NOW WITH A SLIGHT RISK THAT FAVORS AREAS ALONG/NORTH
OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO LEBANON TO ROLLA. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
(POSSIBLY 70 MPH) REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK IN THIS AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS (SEE SPC
OUTLOOK MAP FOR MORE DETAILS) ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR WIND
GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE, WITH AN ISOLATED GUST OR
TWO TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
MID-MISSOURI IS FAVORED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS, MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2,500-3,500 J/KG, AND GREATER DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E OF
25-35 K. FURTHER SOUTH, SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT 10-20 KTS AND
MLCAPES LOWER AT 1,500-2,500 J/KG, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MARGINAL
PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH MAINLY 40-50 MPH GUSTS (ISOLATED 60 MPH
POSSIBLE). SOUTHERN AREAS ALSO HAVE SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE THAT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND GROWTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF TODAY'S FRONT, MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
THE MID 90S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN GREATEST QUESTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS AND MAY BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH IT. IF MID 90S HIGHS WORK OUT, THEN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR, WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN RECENT STINT OF HOT WEATHER.
OPTED TO PUSH THAT DECISION TO LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR TRENDS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES THE HOT AIRMASS INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM 95-105 (HEAT INDEX 100-110)
ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD TO WEST
PLAINS, TO 85-95 (HEAT INDEX 95-100) NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE.
THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY FAVOR NORTHWEST FLOW MCS POTENTIAL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THAT OCCURING. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, PROMPTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN DETAILS IS LOW, MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE CURRENTLY DRY IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 90S SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MOST NOTABLY AT KSGF. ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP IN THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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