311
FXUS63 KSGF 221827
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
THREATS, HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
PRETTY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWED FOR A CLUSTER OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE/KS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS
CLUSTER HAS SINCE WEAKENED AND ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
MAINLY PESKY SHOWERS/STORMS SO FAR THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF MUCAPE (>4500
J/KG), WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR >45KTS, HOWEVER MANY FACTORS
HAVE LIMITED STORMS FROM TAPPING INTO THIS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH, WITH "COOLER" TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO 80S BEHIND IT, AND TEMPS IN THE 90S AHEAD OF IT (MO/AR
BORDER). SOME POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
CLOSER TO THE MO/AR BORDER, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THESE POCKETS
FURTHER DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS WERE
TO HAPPEN, THEN INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, POSING MAINLY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT, AND A SECONDARY ISOLATED HAIL RISK. LATEST CAMS HOWEVER
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY WEAK IN OUR AREA BEFORE INTENSIFYING SOUTH
OF THE BORDER IN ARKANSAS. THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY, AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY QUICKLY ADVANCES
SOUTH, HINDERING REINTENSIFICATION FOR OUR AREA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER'S LATEST OUTLOOK SHOWCASES THIS THINKING, WITH
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60, AND THE BETTER SEVERE RISK (SLIGHT RISK) SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING IN ARKANSAS.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER HIGH SLIDE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO PIVOT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPING
US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DURING THE DAY, CONDITIONS LOOK
MAINLY DRY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S TO EVEN THE LOW
90S FOR SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES (50-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CAMS SHOW TWO CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING: ONE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MO, AND A
SECOND DEVELOPING OVER KS/OK PUSHING EAST. AS THESE PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEY COULD POSE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWATS OVER
2.0". AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THIS WOULD BE
150-175% ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT HREF 24-HR LPMMS SHOW LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 1.5-2.5" OF RAINFALL, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH. THERE'S STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS ACTIVITY, WITH SEVERAL KEY MESOSCALE FACTORS
THAT NEED TO COME TOGETHER TO FORM ANY HYDRO CONCERNS.
WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, WE'LL SEE PERIODIC LOW-END CHANCES (15-30%) FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. DAILY HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S (NORTHEAST CWA) TO THE MID/UPPER 90S (SOUTHWEST
CWA).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON RADAR PUSHING SOUTHEAST,
WITH A ~30% CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 00Z. ANY STRONGER STORM COULD
TEMPORARILY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, HOWEVER THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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