345
FXUS63 KSGF 282331
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
531 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-35%, AND SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (70-90%) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT EXPECTED.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AFTER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH. THERE IS A RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
FLOODING, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 4-11).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH A CLOSED
LOW IN THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH THE MAIN
FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WAS CYCLONIC AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY BRINGING
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO THE GROUND, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
OVER THE REGION AND WAS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO LIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTH AGAIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE
WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED BELOW 25 MPH. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LED TO SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE QUITE THE RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTH WE COULD SEE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S,
BUT IN THE NORTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND ON THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT MID TO UPPER 60S ARE MORE LIKELY. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND WILL BE
SCATTERED WHERE NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 30 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM STARTS BECOMING ACTIVE WITH
SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO THE AREA NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW
IN OKLAHOMA. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. CLOUD COVER, RAIN AND BEING IN THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND
60 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CWA AND WE ARE EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN FOR OUR CWA.
CAN'T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S THERE TOWARDS MORNING, WHILE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. EVEN IF THERE IS A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL OVER OUR CWA WITH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES.
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE 7 DAY LONG TERM PERIOD AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AND EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT A SYSTEM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLOODING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPFS ARE SIMILAR
BETWEEN THE ENS/GEFS/GEPS IN SHOWING PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE 10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT HAS LED TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED
-SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
FURTHER IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...THEN RESUME AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING SUNDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
RECENT DROUGHT AND PRECIPITATION DEFICIT HAS AREA STREAMFLOWS
AND SOIL MOISTURE RUNNING LOW GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE AND POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THAT DROUGHT COULD BE
GREATLY REDUCED OR ELIMINATED IN THE COMING WEEKS. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO HOW EXACTLY THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL AFFECT THE OZARKS, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
STREAMFLOW PROJECTIONS AND WATER MODEL TRENDS OVER THE COMING
WEEK TO EVALUATE WHETHER THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE SOILS AND PUSH US OVER INTO FLOODING TERRITORY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...RUNNELS
HYDROLOGY...CAMDEN
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