607
FXUS63 KSGF 291632
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING AS LOCALIZED BANDS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF I-49 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS
DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS CURRENTLY, WERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, MOVING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. BANDS
OF SHOWERS, MODERATE AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN
ARKANSAS AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. SOME
WEAK MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.75 TO NEAR 2" ACROSS THE AREA THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PRODUCE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LIFT WILL
MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OR BANDS
OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL TRACK OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THESE BANDS TRACK OVER
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS IS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING, AS THESE
LOCATIONS RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FLOOD WATCH, BUT AGAIN THESE LOCATIONS DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN
ON THURSDAY.
THE BANDS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
800-1200 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A WEAK CAP. LIFT
WILL BE MORE LIMITED BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT IF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE
AREA, SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
AREA IN THE 500-250MB LEVEL AND COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SO THE
OVERALL FLOODING RISK WILL BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, IF COOL POOLS FROM THE CONVECTION CAN
CONGEAL IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE AS YOU GO EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY, SO THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE WEAKENING IF IT CAN DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA AT ALL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TO THE
WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A CAP WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY
NOT TOTALLY ERODE. LIFT WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE MAY LIMITED STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE AN
OUT FLOW FROM SATURDAY MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE AREA,
THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG IT OVERCOME THE
WEAK CAP. THETA-E DIFFERENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, TO LIMIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
WIND AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LIFT REMAINS LIMITED IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
MANY LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE, AS SOME MEMBERS
KEEP IT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS OTHERS
ARE FURTHER SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY AND FLATTEN SOME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVER THE RIDGE. THEREFORE, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE
BETTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, WITH
CHANCES DECREASING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
EAST, THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS MAY REMAIN JUST EAST ENOUGH THAT
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE
EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE AREA AND COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WHILE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL FESTER
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STATUS WILL BUILD DOWN OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
HIGHER-TERRAIN LOCATIONS. FOR THIS REASON, LOWERED VISIBILITY
WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE BBG TAF AFTER 08Z.
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IMPACT THE
JLN TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW, SO ANY MENTION
OF LIGHTNING WAS RELEGATED TO A PROB30 GROUP.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DIDIO
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