799
FXUS63 KSGF 132324
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK, WITH HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES
AS SECONDARY HAZARDS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS, ELEVATED
STREAMFLOWS, AND SATURATED SOILS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPTIC & MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE HUDSON BAY, WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS. A
SECOND, MORE DIFFUSE FRONT (FROM MORNING CONVECTION) WAS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON:
A GLANCE AT SATELLITE SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT AGITATED CUMULUS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHERN AR. GUIDANCE HAS
WOBBLED ON HOW MUCH--OR EVEN IF--CONVECTION INITIATES THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THIS AREA (ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60)
WILL BE THE LOCATION TO WATCH FOR A SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK BETWEEN 1PM AND 5PM. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40+KT AND SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION (THE BIG
QUESTION MARK), SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL
TO GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT:
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. INITIAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI, NORTHEAST KANSAS,
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, AND RICH MOISTURE. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS AND
LINEAR SEGMENTS IS LIKELY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES. IF STORMS
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE, HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE, DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
INITIALLY BE MODEST BUT INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES, SO A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI WITH WANING INSTABILITY, POSSIBLY BECOMING OUTFLOW-
DOMINANT.
TIMING: STORM TIME OF ARRIVAL HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LINE/CLUSTERS REACHES SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
BETWEEN 9PM AND 11PM, THE I-44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11PM-2AM, AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 2AM-5AM.
FLOOD RISK TONIGHT:
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH MODELS PEGGING
PWATS AT A SOUPY 2.2 TO 2.4". RAIN RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES IN TOTAL WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS
NEAR 6 INCHES, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SUNDAY-MONDAY:
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. APART
FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THAT LINGER SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH PLEASANT
(BELOW AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
STORM CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK:
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING 500 MB JET. LOW-
CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES EXIST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN A CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER SHEAR UNDER THE ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
BROAD 15% RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. INDEED, AI AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SHOW A
SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN A SIMILAR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MO THIS EVENING, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS EXPECTED. FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS MVFR TO IFR
WITHIN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT OF VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1
TO 3 MILES AND CEILINGS AROUND 500 TO 1500 FEET. A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THE AREA, WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST AS THE COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH OVER THE COURSE OF 2 TO 4
HOURS. BEHIND THE COMPLEX EXITING SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
1500 TO 2500 FEET PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SETTING THE STAGE, MANY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN MO AND SOUTHEAST KS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED
OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST SEVEN DAYS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING THE FAR SOUTHEAST OZARKS FOR
A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FOR ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH, THOSE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEPICTED WITH THE
LATEST HREF LPMM SHOWING CORRIDORS 5 TO 7 INCHES. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THESE CORRIDORS WILL VARY AND WILL BE BEST CAPTURED AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CAPTURES THE HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH A MODERATE RISK (3 OF 4) FOR
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOOD POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENT, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AS PWATS PUSH
TOWARDS 2 INCHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3
INCHES PER A HOUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
RIVERS ARE ELEVATED GOING INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOIL MOISTURE
BETWEEN 20-40% FOR MOST AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH. ONE HOUR FFG
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD QUICKLY BE EXCEEDED AS THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE SETUP IN PLACE, LOCALLY
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH "ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING" (PER THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER) ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...PEREZ
HYDROLOGY...PEREZ
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