769
FXUS63 KSGF 012030
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DENSE
FOG CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY LOW (<30%), BUT ANY PLACES THAT DO
SEE DENSER FOG COULD SEE A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
- SNOW MELT CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES BECOMING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS PEAK EITHER IN THE LOWER
40S, OR THE MIDDLE 50S.
- 15 TO 25% LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS TUESDAY. IF INGREDIENTS LINE UP IN TIME, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
RAP ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A BELT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST, AND RIDGING OVER THE WEST. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. THE
TREND OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN FLATTENING AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, RADAR RETURNS SHOWING FLURRIES OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AS OF 130 PM. HOWEVER,
LIGHT RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. VISUAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW VIRGA-SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR,
HOWEVER, A FEW FLURRY SNOWFLAKES ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN MINNESOTA, DOWN THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. AS THE WARM FRONT HAS BEEN
APPROACHING, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING,
INCREASING WINDS TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 23-28 MPH AT
SPORADIC TIMES.
SNOW MELT BEGINS TODAY WITH ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES:
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE OR BELOW FREEZING AS WARM AIR GETS USHERED INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS SUCH, YOU CAN EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN
MELTING TODAY AS HIGHS CAP OUT IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING:
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH CLEAR SKIES. THOSE CONDITIONS, PAIRED WITH
"WARMER" AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PROMOTE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
FOG, BUT WITH MOISTURE LAGGING A BIT BEHIND TODAY, IT COULD BE
TOO DRY FOR FOG (OR DENSE FOG FOR THAT MATTER). NEVERTHELESS,
HREF MEMBERS SHOW A 20-40% CHANCE OF FOG (<3 MILE VISIBILITY).
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S, A
FREEZING FOG SCENARIO IS ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER, FOG NEEDS TO BE
DENSE FOR IT TO BE IMPACTFUL, SO WITH ONLY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED,
NO FREEZING FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THAT SAID, IF AREAS DO DEVELOP DENSE ENOUGH FOG, A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
HIGHS EITHER IN THE LOWER 40S OR MIDDLE 50S MONDAY:
AN ACTUALLY QUITE TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL PRESENT
FOR MONDAY. BEING ONLY ONE DAY OUT MAKES IT FRUSTRATING. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT EITHER SCENARIO WILL STILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO SNOW MELT. STILL, SOME
PEOPLE WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHETHER IT WILL BE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S OR MIDDLE 50S, AS ONE IS CERTAINLY MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE
OTHER. THE PATTERN OF ALL ENS MEMBERS SHOWING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES <45 F, WITH ALL GEFS MEMBERS >50 F. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT MEAN FORECAST OF ~48-49 F FOR SGF LIKELY WON'T HAPPEN.
IF MY FORECASTER INTUITION HAD TO MAKE A CHOICE, I WOULD LEAN A
BIT TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS AND HERE'S WHY:
GEFS INHERENTLY HAS A WARM BIAS, HOWEVER, THE ONE THING
STRONGLY FAVORING THE >50 F SOLUTION IS 850 MB TEMPERATURE
CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH THE GEFS/ENS HAVE 850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 6-9 C RANGE, WHICH ACCORDING TO OUR CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF
YEAR POINTS TO AN AVERAGE HIGH AROUND 54-60 F DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVERAGE. SO WHY IS ENS FORECASTING BELOW 45 F? ENS DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT COOL BIAS, HOWEVER, EVERY 12Z HREF MEMBER HAS
ALSO COME IN LOWER THAN 45 F. SINCE OUR AVERAGE SNOWFALL IN A
YEAR IS AROUND 15-17 INCHES, AND WE USUALLY MELT THE SNOW
SHORTLY AFTER THE FALL, THE CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCED LIKELY DOES
NOT INCLUDE SNOWPACK EFFECTS CORRECTLY. OR IF IT DOES, THOSE ARE
THE OUTLIERS AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE WHICH ARE <45 F.
ADDITIONALLY, A SECOND WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THE 850 MB WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FIRST, BUT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ALWAYS LAGS BEHIND
AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, THE MAX 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NOT
ACCURATELY TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE FAST ENOUGH TO MATCH EVENTS
AS SEEN IN THE CLIMATOLOGY. AND LASTLY, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER TO CLIMB THAN FORECASTED. ALL
THOSE VARIABLES LEAD ME TO BELIEVE OUR HIGH MAY BE QUITE COOLER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED (PROBABLY <45 F). TIME WILL TELL,
THOUGH! MODEL GUIDANCE ALONE GIVE A 50/50 CHANCE.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT THEN STAY RELATIVELY WARMER IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
15-25% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY, PERHAPS FREEZING:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
BACKGROUND FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. MEANWHILE, RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS LOOK TO
PRODUCE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A WEAK WARM FRONT
ATTACHED TO IT LINED UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THESE SOURCES OF LIFT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS LESS AND LESS LIKELY WITH ONLY
THE NAM AND ASSOCIATED NBM MEMBERS DEPICTING >0.01" OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT OTHER MEMBER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL DRIZZLE WITH
A NEAR-SATURATED LOW-LEVEL LAYER BENEATH A DRY/CAPPED MID-LEVEL
PROFILE AND LIFT BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONTS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME LITTLE WIGGLES IN TIMING OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE, BUT IF THESE CONDITIONS LINE UP TO OCCUR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS WHERE MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BELOW 30
F. HREF/RAP PROBABILITIES/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK
FOR THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM, WELL EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
IF THE FORCING OCCURS LATER IN THE MORNING, MOSTLY DRIZZLE WOULD
BE EXPECTED BEFORE WEATHER CLEARS LATER IN THE DAY.
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, THEN ABOVE AVERAGE WEEK:
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE SINKING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARDS, LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS
RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WHICH WARM NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS
INTO THE LATE WEEK. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN
THE MIDDLE 40S TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. 25TH-75TH NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS SUGGEST HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 F FOR THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS TAF PERIOD, LEAVING ONLY
PASSING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 21-02Z. BEFORE 00Z
TIMEFRAME, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE, WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS, ESPECIALLY AT JLN. AFTERWARDS,
WINDS WILL CALM TO 3-8 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
09Z.
LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST
BETWEEN 08-15Z. FORECASTED NEAR-SURFACE PROFILES SUPPORT IT,
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, BUT
MOISTURE MAY BE A TAD LACKING BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. THEREFORE,
ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO LINE FOR LIGHT MVFR MIST THAT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO FREEZING IMPACTS IF IT DEVELOPS. THAT SAID, THERE
IS A LOW-END CHANCE (<20-30%) THAT ANY FOG BECOMES DENSE ENOUGH
TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS INTRODUCING A SLIGHT FREEZING
RISK.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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