332
FXUS63 KSGF 190856
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TO SURGE INTO THE LOW- TO- MID 90S
ACROSS THE REGION AS 850- MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 21-24 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE HIGH HEAT COMBINED
WITH MID-70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-108. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE OVERNIGHT REGARDING THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND ADVISORY.
A QUICK GLANCE AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR PARCELS HITTING
THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME SORT OF CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP, PERHAPS PROVIDING
INTERMITTENT RELIEF FOR THOSE WHO VENTURE OUTDOORS TODAY. THESE
CLOUDS OUGHT NOT GROW VERTICALLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OR
STORMS GIVEN THE STOUT WARM CAP.
WINDS OUGHT NOT BE AS BREEZY AS YESTERDAY, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID- 70S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE, AND NO REAL CHANGE IN
THE PRESIDING AIR MASS, PERSISTENCE IS THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
JET STREAM BUCKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IN RESPONSE, A STRONG
UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE AS THE COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST TRENDS SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE LOWER ON SUNDAY AS
CLOUDS ACCELERATE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT IF FRONTAL PASSAGE
TRENDS LATER AND DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY, IT IS POSSIBLE HEAT
HEADLINES WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW, TEMPS ON SUNDAY HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
100.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS IN WAKE
OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
WILL FEATURE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 60.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ082-083-090>092-
094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>081-088-089-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
SHORT TERM...ALBANO
LONG TERM...ALBANO
AVIATION...HATCH
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