440
FXUS63 KSGF 240513
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL WILL THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE SEVERE...HOWEVER SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL EXISTS WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL INITIAL BE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS LEADING TO INCREASING POTENTIAL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT NEARING THE I-44 CORRIDOR AT 19Z WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. WITH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING BEING WEAK NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
THE POST FRONTAL IMPACT WILL BE LIMITED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES STAYS WELL EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH EASTERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY IN DIGGING
AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE SW US ON THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY
LEADING TO A SURGE IN INSTABILITY ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS.
THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN WELL WEST
OF THE REGION THOUGH WARM ADVECTION RELATED CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
QPF WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL FURTHER INCREASE AS DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. DESPITE A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH MU CAPES
CLIMBING OVER 2000 J/KG...HIGH LOW LEVEL SRHS...AND 50 KNOTS OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE PRECIPITAL WATER TO OVER AN
INCH AND A THIRD.
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LEAVING THE
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY CARVING OUT THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
POTENTIALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ADDING A
FLOOD COMPONENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED APR 24 2024
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG AND WILL MONITOR THAT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, SPECIFICALLY AT THE BBG SITE WHERE LATEST OBS
HAD A ZERO DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND NO WIND SPEED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH AN EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 26:
KSGF: 66/2016
APRIL 27:
KSGF: 67/1899
APRIL 28:
KSGF: 68/1896
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
APRIL 28:
KSGF: 2.19/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...RUNNELS
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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