676  
FXUS63 KSGF 090915  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
315 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY-BREEZY.  
2. FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LATE WED NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.  
3. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY-SUNDAY.  
4. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLOODING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
5. SEVERE WEATHER DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021  
 
IT WAS A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY MARCH STANDARDS, WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE COMBINATION OF  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WAS NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF  
A FALL IN TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY  
WITH HIGH TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HREF  
GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERIOD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE  
CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BOOST ABOVE  
CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPS.  
 
00Z SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWED A DRY AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA,  
WITH FWD AND SHV SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S, THEREFORE WE  
WENT LOWER ON DEWPOINTS TODAY, CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE NBM,  
WHICH WAS DONE WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS. THIS GENERALLY ALLOWS FOR  
RH VALUES TO REACH THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. WHILE THIS IS  
NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS DAYS, THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME  
STRONGER TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFERS OF  
25-35KTS AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER  
CAN'T RULE OUT A SHORT FUSED ONE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA IF  
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT BECOME STRONGER TODAY. THIS ESPECIALLY  
WILL BE TRUE IF WE DO INDEED GET SOME DECENT CLEARING/SUNSHINE.  
THEREFORE THIS COMBINATION WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF  
WILDFIRES/GRASSFIRE/NATURAL COVER FIRES THE LAST FEW DAYS AND  
FUELS ARE QUIET DRY.  
 
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT, AND THERE  
COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE  
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.  
THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOW  
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES LIKELY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2021  
 
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE AREA  
EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH  
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE  
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING HELD BACK SOME,  
HOWEVER STILL QUITE MILD, NEAR 70. BY MID TO LATE EVENING  
WEDNESDAY (GENERALLY AFTER 9-10PM), THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST  
MISSOURI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM FORT SCOTT, KANSAS SHOWS STRONG  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR. THERE  
WILL BE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800MB, THEREFORE THESE  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. AT THIS POINT, MOST  
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THESE STORMS BARELY CLIPPING OUR NORTHWEST CWA,  
WITH SOME SHOWING IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, ALONG THE HIGHWAY 54  
CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING  
HOWEVER THE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE  
THAT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 REMAIN MILD AND DRY WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN NEAR 60, WHICH  
COULD BREAK THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 58 FROM 1990 AT SGF.  
 
THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE  
IT WILL SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY  
HOWEVER THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION UNTIL PERHAPS  
LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE MID LEVEL HEIGHT  
RISES DURING THE DAY AND EVENING THURSDAY. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES  
MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHS  
AND CAN CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THEN A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN  
ON THE "COOL" SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE  
THREAT, HOWEVER THE REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF  
AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR NORTHEAST AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE STREAMING UP TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS  
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ITS JUST HARD TO PINPOINT THE  
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION AT THIS TIME.  
 
BY SUNDAY HOWEVER, MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL  
LOW TO THE WEST, TO START EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS AND PERHAPS  
BECOMING OCCLUDED. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH  
AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA  
FROM THE WEST, PROBABLY LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT AS THERE ARE  
TIMING DIFFERENCES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS  
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT  
THIS JUNCTURE.  
 
ALL THAT SAID, STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GUIDANCE/THINKING HAS NOT  
CHANGED TOO MUCH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT FROM MODEL  
ENSEMBLES THAT SHOW VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2  
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES (50-60%) OF AN  
AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH  
MONDAY. WHILE THIS TOTAL WILL COME SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL  
ROUNDS, IT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING OVER TIME, GIVEN THE LACK  
OF VEGETATION THIS TIME OF YEAR. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF  
20 DEGREES PLUS FOR THE MONDAY PERIOD ONWARD POINTS TO A HIGHLY  
UNCERTAIN FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OUT AND PERHAPS ANOTHER  
ONE MOVES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
STAY UP ON THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
 
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN  
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY  
ISSUE AT THE MOMENT IS SOME HAZE IN JOPLIN THAT CREATING MVFR  
VISIBILITIES. WE THINK THE HAZE MIGHT BE FROM A FIRE THAT OCCURRED  
IN DELAWARE COUNTY OKLAHOMA, SO IT'S DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW LONG  
THE HAZE WILL LAST.  
 
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED  
TONIGHT, AND BEGIN TO GUST TUESDAY MORNING. THESE GUSTS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.  
 
SAFE TRAVELS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...CRAMER  
 
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