471
FXUS63 KSGF 171106
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
- SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSITING THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDED
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST. A FEW VERY
WEAK ECHOES COULD BE OBSERVED ON RADAR; HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. BROKEN TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT
LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN. MEANWHILE, A
DEEPER, MORE DYNAMIC TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING:
COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY.
RAP OUTPUT DEPICTS MORE QUESTIONABLE CLOUD ICE PROBABILITIES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
SUGGESTING PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FURTHERMORE, POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WARM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, SUPPORTING THIS DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL. HI-RES GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS AROUND 100 TO 200 J/KG
OF MUCAPE WITH THIS FRONT, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS WELL. THEREFORE, IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
WE SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE MIXED
IN. TO THAT END, THERE COULD ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THOUGH THAT RISK LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY-- LIMITED TO EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THURSDAY MORNING AND ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE LIGHT, RANGING FROM NOTHING ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO 0.40 INCHES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 63.
WINDY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON:
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND PEAK WINDS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS MIXING INCREASES.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES DEPICT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER REACHING UP TO AROUND 7000 FT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WHICH IS PRETTY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR THE TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW
AND DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE 00Z HREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 25% AND WIND SPEED
GREATER THAN 20 MPH (RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA) MAX OUT BETWEEN
50% TO 60% ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES. TO THAT END,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
COUNTIES IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR REFERENCE, OUR FORECAST AREA AVERAGES JUST ONE TO TWO OF
THESE OUTLOOKS A YEAR. LOOKING AT WINDS EXCLUSIVELY, GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40% TO 80% RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA, AND PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH (WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE IN THE 10% TO 50% RANGE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINE ISSUANCE, TRENDS IN THE
HI- RES GUIDANCE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AREAS WITH THE LOWEST
FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON CURRENTLY HAVE
NO QPF FROM THE MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM
CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A BRIEF RETURN OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN THE
20S AREAWIDE. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOME BREEZY WINDS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN OZARKS. THERE, WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
THESE COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
ENSEMBLES DEPICT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO PERHAPS BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CONUS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND LIKEWISE KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO
A MINIMUM. MORE SPECIFICALLY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LESS
THAN 10% AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 503 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS EXIT
ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY AFTER 06Z; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WAS LOW, SO ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION
WAS RELEGATED TO A PROB30 GROUP.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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