227
FXUS63 KSGF 281921
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
221 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-90% CHANCES) ARE EXPECTED
MIDWEEK/LATE WEEK AND COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE LOWER 80S TODAY, AND UPPER 80S TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND STAY UNDER 10 KNOTS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS
START TO BUILD IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
SYSTEM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAIN FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THOUGH, TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE DIGGING TROUGH THAT'S CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AND BRING US SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO END THE WEEK. TIMING FOR THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE NO SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK/WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. THOUGH, THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING US A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THERE, BUT
INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS MUCAPE VALUES ARE <500 J/KG. THE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING US A COLD FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, BUT THE DEWPOINT DROP WON'T OCCUR UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FRONT COULD SWEEP THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY AND BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING, OR IT STICKS AROUND AND STALLS
OUT OVER SOUTHERN MO BRINGING THE AREA MORE RAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE GOING WITH THE STALLED FRONT
SCENARIO WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY (30-50% CHANCE
OF RAIN) AND ENDING WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING (15-30% CHANCE
OF RAIN).
FLOODING: THERE IS A FLOODING THREAT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
WHERE THE HIGHER AXIS OF FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
SITUATED. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO KS/OK AND TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING EAST. IT SEEMS TO BECOME ELONGATED AND STRING OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TROPICAL-LIKE AND BRING
AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH IT. MODEL PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE RECORD-BREAKING WITH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR 2".
OUR DAILY MAX RIGHT NOW IS 1.49", SO THIS CLEARLY WILL BE A
MOIST AIRMASS MOVING IN. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OCCUR IN BANDS AND
BE PREPARED TO RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. AGAIN, THE
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WEST OF HIGHWAY 65,
BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR 1" OF RAIN FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE PROBABILISTIC
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE TRY TO NARROW
DOWN THE HIGHER CORRIDORS OF QPF. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION BELOW
FOR PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 3" FOR A FEW CITIES
AROUND THE AREA. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THOSE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SET UP. THIS ALSO MEANS THERE MAY
BE SHARP CUT OFFS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF YOU ARE LOCATED JUST
OUTSIDE OF OR TOO FAR TO THE EAST OF THESE BANDS. WE ARE IN A D2
TO D3 DROUGHT, WHICH INDICATES THAT OUR SOILS COULD USE THE
MOISTURE. EVEN WITH THAT INFORMATION, WE STILL MAY ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COUNTIES AT LEAST WEST OF I-49 DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF TRAINING HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN FOR 24-48 HOURS. AREAS IN
DROUGHT COULD STILL SEE FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS ACTIVITY IF THE
RAIN RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH.
PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
JOPLIN
1": 90%
2": 75%
3": 53%
SPRINGFIELD
1": 82%
2": 68%
3": 39%
BRANSON
1": 72%
2": 56%
3": 31%
WEST PLAINS
1": 61%
2": 34%
3": 21%
ROLLA
1": 75%
2": 54%
3": 27%
TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 80S, BUT THEN WE GET ANOTHER BREAK FROM THE ABNORMALLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. THE RAIN WILL TAKE ITS TIME SPREADING WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL GIVE US A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE,
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 70S. OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS
WHERE MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THEM, THEY WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. BY FRIDAY, EVERYONE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THOSE HIGHS STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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