485
FXUS63 KSGF 260705
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN RETURNS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCALIZED,
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. AS THE DAY
CONTINUES, THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO
PUSH UP INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SET UP OVER THE BOOTHEEL REGION, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY IN
PLACE FOR THE DAY, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST CWA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 (AS OF 2AM).
HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE (40-60%) THIS MORNING FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST
BEFORE CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PEAK AT
60-80% THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR, HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR (20-40%) NORTH OF I-44. WITH PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5IN, SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES COULD OCCUR WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. WPC DOES HIGHLIGHT AREAS
SOUTH OF I-44 IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING (ESPECIALLY
WITH THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL), HOWEVER WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR AN ALL- DAY WASHOUTS
FOR TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN, WITH A FEW BOUTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
MUCAPE REMAINING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND SHEAR LIMITED TO
<20KTS AT BEST, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FOR TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY THIS EVENING, THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, LIFTING SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN EXIST (20-50%), WITH INCREASED
60-80% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE "DRIEST" DAY THIS WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES (20-40%) LIMITED TO THE MO/KS AND MO/AR BORDER IN
OUR SOUTHWEST. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP, WITH ANOTHER UPPER
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA, AND AN UPPER RIDGE IN
BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THAT BEING SAID, SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL
EXIST REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY - EVEN
NOW, THE COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS CHANGED FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO GET A BETTER
IDEA OF WHAT TO EXPECT. REGARDLESS, WE'RE ONCE AGAIN NOT
EXPECTING ALL-DAY WASHOUTS, WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER LIKELY.
WPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEAT
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 70S, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 80S. THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW THE PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SET UP.
WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD (SINCE IT'S ALSO THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES), WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z BEFORE
A SYSTEM FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BETWEEN
14Z-18Z, LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBBG BEFORE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING EACH TAF SITE. AS IT STANDS,
THERE'S STILL ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE AT KSGF AND KJLN, WITH A
40-60% CHANCE AT KBBG. THEREFORE, WENT WITH PROB30 GROUP WITH
-TSRA FOR NOW, AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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