005
FXUS63 KSGF 270729
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH A GREATER
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND TORNADOES
ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL IS THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH A SECONDARY DAMAGING WIND RISK.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOODING
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AN UPPER LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHERN MANITOBA. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAS INITIATED ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS
OVER KANSAS. STORM MOTIONS WERE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CONVECTION OVER KANSAS MAY AFFECT OUR
FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA WITH
TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY: MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY. SURFACE LOW
AND A COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL INTERACT WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
REINITIATE AFTER MIDDAY AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA OVER OUR CWA FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE U.S. 65 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ENHANCED RISK(3 OF 5)
EXITS. MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
MID TO LATE EVENING. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANY
STORMS THAT CAN MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
TUESDAY: BEHIND THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WE REMAIN IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM MAKING IT TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY STALLING OVER NORTHERN AR OR SOUTHERN
MO. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI. A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND RISK WOULD BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, ONGOING SEVERE STORM SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE SGF AREA AND LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE BBG TERMINAL. HAVE
GONE WITH A A COUPLE HOUR PROB30 GROUP FOR BBG TO ACCOUNT FOR A
POTENTIAL FURTHER SOUTHWARD DRIFT OR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS A WEAKER STORM AT JLN AS OF 0520Z
THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF JLN BY 06Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE SO HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30
GROUP AT THE TAF SITES (SGF/BBG). ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE JLN TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, BUT WILL HAVE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR WITHIN THE
CONVECTION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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