723
FXUS63 KSGF 162244
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FROST, AND PERHAPS A FREEZE,
ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP INTO THE
30S.
- WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 F EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
PROMINENT COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE BEEN AIDING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS. AT THE SURFACE, A LAYER OF DRY AIR PERSISTS WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
850 MB LEVEL, GREATER SATURATION IS ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK TO FILL IN, WITH EVEN A FEW WEAK ECHOES BEING OBSERVED ON
RADAR.
BLUSTERY FALL DAY:
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUD DECK WILL PREVENT MUCH WARMING
TODAY, CAPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S. FURTHERMORE,
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PRODUCING FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH, MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL A BIT BLUSTERY--ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO THE HEAT AS OF LATE. A FAIRLY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 900 TO 800 MB MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW TOPOGRAPHICALLY
AIDED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MINIMAL IF
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME OF IT.
FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING:
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS THEY DO, WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH,
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH, AND WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
SOME PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP, BUT OVERALL THE BETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER SUNDAY MORNING THANKS
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MODEL PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES 35 DEG OR LESS (A PROXY FOR FROST POTENTIAL) ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI,
RANGING BETWEEN 60-95%. HERE, FROST IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE FOOTPRINT OF PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES 32
DEG OR LESS IS SMALLER--ROUGHLY LIMITED TO THE VALLEYS OF THE
EASTERN OZARKS--RANGING BETWEEN 30-50%. ELSEWHERE, PATCHY FROST
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS PROBABILITIES RANGE BETWEEN 25-50%. A
FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN A FUTURE FORECAST UPDATE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE RETURN OF DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES SHOW AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A BROAD, AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MEANS
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AMPLE
SUNSHINE, AND BY MID- WEEK, THE RETURN OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. INDEED, SMALL NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS LEND
THEMSELVES TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SAME TIME, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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