266
FXUS63 KSGF 282311
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME WITH FUTURE
UPDATES.
- 20-50% CHANCES FOR A QUICK LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH EAST OF HIGHWAY 5. LOW CHANCE
(5%) FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- MUCH COLDER BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
- WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THE COLD START TO THE WEEK UNTIL MID-
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 F EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FINALLY UPON US AFTER 6 DAYS STRAIGHT OF
BREAKING RECORDS AND HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 F.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH IS FINALLY KICKING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. AS OF 115 PM, AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SPRINGFIELD.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO DROP 10-20 DEGREES IN AN
HOUR BEHIND THE FRONT, SO EXPECT RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES.
THANKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN
OBSERVED TO GUST 30-40 MPH, SOMETIMES BETWEEN 40-45 MPH,
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
RECORD HIGHS ACHIEVED IN SOME MOST PLACES AGAIN TODAY:
AS OF 130 PM, MOST LOCATIONS, INCLUDING JOPLIN, WEST PLAINS, AND
ROLLA-VICHY, HAVE BROKEN THEIR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. SPRINGFIELD DID NOT. THIS CONCLUDES A 6 DAYS STRETCH OF
ABOVE 70 F TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MULTIPLE BROKEN RECORDS EACH
DAY. THIS IS THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE >70 F STREAK FOR DECEMBER.
THE PREVIOUS LONGEST STREAK WAS 3 DAYS, DECEMBER 1ST TO 3RD
WHICH OCCURRED IN 2012. SO, IT'S EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE THAT WE
HAD THIS STRETCH TOWARD THE END OF DECEMBER. AS FOR TOTAL (NOT
CONSECUTIVE) NUMBER OF DAYS ABOVE 70 F IN DECEMBER, THE RECORD
GOES TO 1889 WITH 8 DAYS, THOUGH THAT YEAR HAD NO MORE THAN 2
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THAT PUTS US TIED FOR SECOND PLACE AT 6 DAYS
WHICH WAS IN 2021. THAT YEAR ALSO HAD NO MORE THAN 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS ABOVE 70 F. WITH ALL THAT SAID, THIS HAS BEEN AN
IMPRESSIVELY WARM AND STAGNANT PATTERN. BUT ALL THINGS--GOOD OR
BAD--COME TO AN END.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY:
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WINDS WILL CONSISTENTLY BE IN THE 15-25
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH AND INTERMITTENT GUSTS AT
40-45+ MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 4 PM TODAY,
AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE WINDIEST PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM TONIGHT
AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. BUFKIT TOOLS SHOW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-50 MPH BEING
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER 6 AM, WINDS WILL START DIMINISHING, THOUGH IT WILL STILL
BE A BIT BREEZY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
20-50% CHANCES FOR A QUICK LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON:
LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN
WARMER AND MORE MOIST BY ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES THAN MODEL FORECASTS.
THIS DISCREPANCY LED TO OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 750 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WHICH WAS 250-500 J/KG MORE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. RAP ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS MUCH OF OUR AREA UNCAPPED
AS OF 12 PM. BUT, 12Z CAMS CAME IN COMPLETELY DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, SAVE FOR OUR EASTERN COUPLE OF COUNTIES. THE
CULPRIT FOR THIS? BASED ON RAP ANALYSIS, A REGION OF DECENT
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 500 MB IS OVERSPREAD MISSOURI
DUE TO A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ROUNDING THE MAIN TROUGH.
THIS, ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING BEING A BIT BEHIND THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, HAS KEPT ANY OF THE CUMULUS FROM DEVELOPING
INTO SHOWERS. WHERE FRONTAL FORCING IS GREATEST, HOWEVER, HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS
SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA AS DRY AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS, HREF CAMS, BREAKOUT CONVECTION WITHIN OUR EASTERN
OZARKS COUNTIES AROUND 3-4 PM. THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL A
20-50% CHANCE OF A QUICK LINE OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM, WITHIN DENT, TEXAS, HOWELL, SHANNON, AND OREGON
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND WIND FIELD, A FEW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50-60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE LINE DEVELOPS
IN OUR AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES AND/OR SNOW THIS EVENING:
ANOTHER FORECAST ASPECT TO NOTE IS THE ONGOING SNOW SQUALL
WARNINGS ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THESE STATES ALONG
THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY LOBE. THIS LOBE OF VORTICITY IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO OUR NORTHERN AREA
THIS EVENING. THIS VORTICITY ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS GOING, GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60, THIS EVENING.
THANKS TO PRECEDING VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, ANY SNOW
SHOULD MELT QUICKLY. THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE STRONG WINDS
BLOWING AROUND THE LIGHT SNOW, QUICKLY DECREASING VISIBILITIES
ON ROADS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54.
MUCH COLDER BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS:
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AROUND 0 F. AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 COULD SEE WIND CHILLS AROUND -5 F, WHILE AREAS SOUTH
WILL BE MORE IN THE 0-10 F RANGE.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT WITH THE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 F WHICH RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE TEENS AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THE COLD START TO THE WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND THE NBM ARE STARTING TO COME IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SQUAT OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THE JET STREAM NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WARMING FOR A FEW DAYS. TUESDAY'S
HIGHS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN LEADING TO LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS:
AFTER WEDNESDAY, NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREADS INCREASE WITH THE
25TH TO 75TH VALUES RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS SPREAD IS DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE NORTHWESTERLY JET SETS UP. LATEST
CLUSTER ANALYSIS APPEARS TO HAVE MOST MODELS LEANING TO A
FURTHER NORTHEAST JET STREAM, WHICH IN GENERAL SHOULD KEEP US ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE RANGE. THAT SAID, ANY SHORTWAVES COULD
ALSO BRING THROUGH QUICK SURFACE FRONTS THAT BRIEFLY DROP OUR
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SAY
EXACTLY, BUT DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SPREADS, THE CURRENT FORECAST
PUTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
DECEMBER 27 TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN:
NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
KSGF: 77 (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 71 SET IN 2005/1971)
KJLN: 79 (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 70 SET IN 2008/2005)
KVIH: 70 (PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 2008)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 28:
KSGF: 75/1928
KJLN: 69/1984
KVIH: 62/2019
KUNO: 69/1984
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...WISE
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