325
FXUS63 KSGF 222318
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION..
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021
A VERY PLEASANT SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT BROUGHT IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS HAVE COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHED INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING UP IN IOWA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021
WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR A POTENTIAL DECAYING MCS THAT OVERRUNS
THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA IN THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY. REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY DUE TO
FAIRLY HIGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT OUR NORTHERN CWA.
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WHICH GIVES US HEAD INDEX
VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE AND SOME IN THE 105 TO 108
DEGREE RANGE OUT IN OUR WESTERN CWA. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS FOR A
POTENTIAL ADVISORY OVER THE NEW FEW FORECASTS.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WITH HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2", THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2021
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AT BOTH
KSGF AND KJLN AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME CUMULUS ONCE AGAIN TO DEVELOP LATER ON
WEDNESDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...RABERDING
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