069
FXUS63 KSGF 192357
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST OF I-44. SLIGHT (2 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE'S AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HOWEVER THIS SHOULDN'T INFLUENCE
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS A DRY AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA, WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE
MO/AR BORDER COMING FROM THAT LOW OVER TX. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES
IN AREAS THAT HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED PEAK HEATING (TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S EVERYWHERE).
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVECTION,
WITH MUCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J/KG, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING WILL BE AT A MINIMUM, SO COVERAGE
IN ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH. A WARM
FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT UP INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY, WHICH
COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS/CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. WITH SHEAR
REMAINING WEAK, ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN
NATURE, PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING
THE AFTERNOON, AND FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 IN THE EARLY
EVENING.
TO OUR WEST, A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO, TRANSLATING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE GROWING INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH IT THEN FOLLOWING
THE WEST-TO-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH-RES CAMS SHOW A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX,
REACHING OUR NORTHWEST CWA BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. THERE'S STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING, AS A SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD
LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING LATER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SO
WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING HOW THIS COMPLEX DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY AND HOW IT PROGRESSES.
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX (MUCAPE UP TO 1500-
2000+ J/KG) AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35-40KTS (STRONGER SHEAR IN OUR
NORTHWEST), LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE MCS AND HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
CAN RECOVER DURING THE AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND LINGERING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SUNDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK ON SUNDAY, THERE WILL ALSO BE
HYDRO CONCERNS, AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW PWATS CLIMBING
BETWEEN 1.6-2.0". FOR REFERENCE, THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS 1.64",
WITH A DAILY MAXIMUM PWAT OF 1.89", PLACING OUR AREA ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE, AND APPROACHING THE DAILY MAXIMUM. WITH SOILS
STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL, SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS SYSTEM GETS
AND IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS. AS IT STANDS, HERE ARE THE CURRENT
48-HR NBM PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION:
>0.5": 80-95%
>1.0": 65-85%
>2.0": 30-55%
>3.0": 20-35%
WITH THE HIGHER END OF THOSE RANGES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-44. WPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4), HOWEVER ADDITIONAL TWEAKS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE WE GET INTO THE RANGE OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND WE
GET A BETTER IDEA OF HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY,
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA. ONCE
WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (30-45%) TO
THE AREA. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING STARTING AROUND 12Z
AND PERSISTING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. RAIN MAY MISS BBG.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...SORIA
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