589
FXUS63 KSGF 230656
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
156 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.
- RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- LOWER CHANCES (20-40%) OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44. MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME
BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MANITOBA, CANADA, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THERE REMAINS
SOME WEAK MUCAPE BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG IN OUR WEST (UP TO 1000+ J/KG
OVER EASTERN KS), WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN KS OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (AS OF 2
AM). OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME AREAS OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES PERIODICALLY
FLUCTUATING BELOW 1 MILE AS SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING. HREF
PROBABILITIES SIT AT 60-70% CHANCES OF THESE LOWERED
VISIBILITIES BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OCCURS/IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NEEDED. ASSESSING THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, THE CLOUD ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. WITH POCKETS OF LIFT AND REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA,
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, GENERALLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE AREA, WITH MUCAPE UP TO 1000-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
WITH THE TROUGH, INCREASING CHANCES (55-75%) FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER, AS SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 0.25" TO 1.0", WITH HREF LPMM SHOWING LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD RECEIVE UP TO 2-3" WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TODAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH 20-40% CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING SAID, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. MEMORIAL DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS, WITH ONLY 15-20% CHANCES OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
GENERALLY REMAINING IN PLACE/WOBBLING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY SHOWCASES 60-90% CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH DAILY CHANCES (40-60%) OF RAINFALL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ALL-DAY
WASHOUTS BY ANY MEANS, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL OCCURRING AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN, AS HIGHS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL TIMING AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS. IN GENERAL, CLEAR DAYS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, WITH CLOUDY DAYS LIMITING HIGHS
TO THE LOW/MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES ARE BEING
MET FROM THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE VISIBILITY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR
CATEGORY. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING. SOME SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE
TAF SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE STORMS AND
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AFTER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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