431
FXUS63 KSGF 192349
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH EXPECTED MONDAY (STRONGEST
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65).
- LOCALLY ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK TUESDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS
(GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH) AND LOW HUMIDITY (RH 25-35%), MAINLY
IMPACTING ANY DORMANT GRASSLAND FUELS.
- FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- 60-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
QUIET AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AS
RIDGING GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A FAIRLY GENTLE ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A TRAIN OF WEAK
TROUGHS AND RIDGES THROUGH THE AREA.
AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY, MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY AN EARLY DAY UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASED BY A SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES, RESULTING IN ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT. GOOD
MIXING INTO THESE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND WINDS GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH (STRONGEST WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65). RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE
35-45% RANGE, BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND FUEL CONDITIONS PREVENT
ANY NOTEWORTHY FIRE CONCERNS.
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UNDER AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 25-35% AND
NW GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE DORMANT GRASSLAND FUELS CAN DRY OUT,
BUT FUELS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT PRESENT A NOTEWORTHY
THREAT.
DRY AIR AND ENCROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. ADDED FROST
TO THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE JUST AS DRY AS TUESDAY, BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS THAT WILL PREVENT FIRE WEATHER FROM BEING A CONCERN. LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO REBOUND SOME TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK IN SHOWING
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA. OF COURSE,
THERE IS FAIRLY TYPICAL DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY AND EXIT ON SATURDAY.
NOT SEEING ANY NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER SIGNAL AT THIS TIME.
INTERQUARTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM RANGE FROM 0.2-0.8"
(25TH PERCENTILE) TO 1.5-3.0"(75TH PERCENTILE), WHICH IS A
PRETTY BROAD RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IS LOW, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST SEEING SOME RAIN IS MODERATE TO HIGH (60-70% POPS).
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S THEN BACK
CLOSER TO 60 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON DETAILS OF HOW
THAT SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUST FROM 30-40KTS AT TIMES.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE WINDS FROM
AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE THE LOWER LEVEL MIX
OUT.
OTHER THAN THE EXPECTED WINDY CONDITIONS, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...HATCH
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