530
FXUS63 KSGF 212313
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY WITH A RETURN
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGHS RETURN
INTO THE 50S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OR FLOODING EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN ON THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THROUGH TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS SURFACE
HIGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S (NORTH AND
EAST) TO LOWER 40S (SOUTH AND WEST) WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITHIN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS.
SUNDAY: A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND BEGINS
TO NUDGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT IN A WARMER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL VARY FROM MIDDLE 40S (EAST) TO LOWER 50S
(WEST). NBM PROBABILITIES DEPICT 60-80% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING 50
DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: BY MONDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
ROCKIES AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FLATTENED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS INITIAL WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44. FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE, RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TAPER OFF. FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO REMAIN HIGH IN RAIN CHANCES OF 60-80%. FURTHER NORTH, RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO 20-40%. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE. SOME
GUIDANCE HINTS AT MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY (<100 J/KG)
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER, THAT MAY SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW POTENTIAL (< 10%) FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 5+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S, THUS NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THE TIME RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE)/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING (CHRISTMAS DAY), RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO. NBM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
FOLLOWING PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS (ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44):
PROB > 0.25": 50-80%
PROB > 0.50": 40-70%
PROB > 1.00": 20-50%
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL
(~24-36 HOURS).
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE MORNING
OF CHRISTMAS DAY, MOST OF THE HOLIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH IT'S WORTH MENTIONING, ANY SUNSHINE WILL
BE TOUGH TO COME BY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO PAINT A SIGNAL
FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLES SHOWING
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF
THESE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WITH EACH WAVE OF ENERGY. GUIDANCE WILL
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS ON TIMING AND
WHETHER THE UPPER- LEVEL WAVES BECOME CLOSED OFF OR NOT. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) ON
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SOME SWOLLEN WATERWAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH LATE WEEK REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS PUSHING 60.
SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DAILY HIGHS.
THE MILD AND WET PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF DECEMBER INTO EARLY JANUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 22
KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...SORIA
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