076
FXUS63 KSGF 012256
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN OZARKS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 50-70% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MISSOURI UNDER A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK TROUGH/BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI, GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST.
DRY THOUGH THE WEEKEND:
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND AN OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT, THE REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW CAMS DO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW, AND POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 20%.
FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT:
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI; ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THEY WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES--A PROXY FOR FROST POTENTIAL--ARE HIGHEST
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THEY RANGE FROM
40 TO 60%. ONE CAVEAT AGAINST FROST DEVELOPMENT IS THAT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY ABUNDANT, HOWEVER. IF
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER OR FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE APPARENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE MONDAY, THE
TWO STREAMS BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET SHIFTS EAST. THE RESULTANT INCREASING GULF MOISTURE RETURN
AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES AND ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WHICH REDUCES OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERLAP OF
RELEVANT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS TO BETTER ASSESS ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, MOST AI/ML GUIDANCE
DEPICT AT LEAST A MODEST SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH/FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE 60S. NBM
PERCENTILE DATA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS DEPICT INCREASING VARIABILITY BY THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY GO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH AND
WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. <20% CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES
WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE; RAIN STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY TO REACH
THE GROUND GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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