624
FXUS63 KSGF 151709
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. NUMBER OF ROUNDS, TIMING OF HIGHEST SEVERE RISK,
EXACT HAZARDS, AND INTENSITY STILL HINGES ON HOW QUICKLY
MORNING CONVECTION DISSIPATES, BUT MOST SEVERE SCENARIO
INVOLVES LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS A LOW-END MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS, WITH
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK IN AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED STRONG STORMS AND/OR TRAINING PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS & SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE SONORAN DESERT OF NORTHWEST MEXICO.
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH, TWO CENTERS OF
CYCLONIC ROTATION CAN BE OBSERVED, ONE NEAR BISMARCK ND AND THE
OTHER NEAR NORTH PLATTE NE. DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN 4
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG TWO
BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST: ALONG A STATIONARY/QUASI-COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND WISCONSIN AND FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHERN OHIO, AND IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A DRYLINE IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS.
THE CONVECTION IN OUR BACKYARD EARLY THIS MORNING IS A DECAYING
MCV THAT BROUGHT STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AS IT MOVED INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE COLD POOL OF THE LATE EVENING MCV BLEEDING THE
ENVIRONMENT AND COMPLETELY DEPLETING THE INSTABILITY IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE FORMING ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
MLCAPE GRADIENT/REMNANT COLD POOL AS 50-60KT LLJ ADVECTS WARM,
MOIST AIR OVERTOP THE MORE DENSE AIR MASS. THESE STORMS UPSTREAM
OF OUR AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES
VERY LONG IN SUCH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THIS SECOND ROUND
OF SCATTERED, DISORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE INTO
OUR AREA THIS MORNING. EVEN IF THE MORNING CONVECTION DOESN'T
PERSIST VERY LONG IN TIME OR REACH VERY FAR EAST, IT WILL STILL
HAVE SOME RESIDUAL EFFECT ON THE ABILITY AND SPEED AT WHICH THE
ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OTHER POTENTIAL
IMPACT THIS AM CONVECTION COULD HAVE WOULD BE LEAVING RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR COLD POOLS BEHIND FOR STORMS TO
POTENTIALLY FORM ALONG THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS 00Z-06Z SUITES SEEM TO POINT TO THREE
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR HOW TODAY'AFTERNOONS SETUP EVOLVES.
FROM MOST TO LEAST LIKELY/HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TO LOWEST
CONFIDENCE:
OUTCOME 1: AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA,
FOLLOWED BY LINE OF STORMS THAT FORM AS DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE AND ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD DEPEND ON MORNING CONVECTION
STOPPING AT SOME POINT SO A CAPPING INVERSION CAN DEVELOP ALOFT
BEFORE BEING BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE CAP BEING BROKEN, AND THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS/SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
MORNING CONVECTION WOULD SERVE AS A MECHANISM FOR STORMS TO FORM
OFF OF IN THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT REQUIRING THE DRYLINE TO
INITIATE. STORMS WOULD FORM AS DISCRETE INITIALLY, BUT QUICKLY
GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS. COVERAGE WOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR THE LATER ROUND OF STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR SEVERE
RISK.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD SUPPORT
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A HAIL THREAT
INITIALLY, AND ALSO IMPLICATE THAT STORM MODE BECOMES MESSY
QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 70 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHILE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH
AND WEAK EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE THE HAZARDS FOR THE LINE OF
STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A RISK FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN MATURE INTO THE
EVENING, WHEN SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE CURVED IN THE LOW-
LEVELS.
OUTCOME 2: NO AFTERNOON WARM SECTOR CONVECTION, BUT THE DISCRETE/SEMI-
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA FORM ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS ANTICIPATED AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE AND ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS OUTCOME WOULD HAVE A LOWER, BUT STILL NOT INSIGNIFICANT,
SEVERE RISK COMPARED TO THE FIRST OUTCOME. THE TIMING OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WINDOW WHERE STORMS ARE MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA/KANSAS, WITH THE HAZARDS BEING
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND WEAK EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITH THE
LINE.
OUTCOME 3: CONTINUOUS, NON-SEVERE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
CONTINUES ALL THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND ARRIVES THIS EVENING.
WHEN THE UPSTREAM STORMS DO ARRIVE THIS EVENING, THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD BE SO WASHED OUT FROM CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT THAT THERE
WOULD BE A FAR LOWER TO EVEN NO SEVERE RISK ONCE IT DOES
ARRIVE.
THE LINE OF STORMS THAT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE STRATIFORM
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE THAT LINGERS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE EASTERN OZARKS COULD SEE A
CONTINUED, LOW SEVERE RISK FOR ELEVATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
WITH A FEW CAMS HINTING AT THE LINE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FAST
ENOUGH TONIGHT THAT THE AIR MASS COULD RECOVER AND SEE
REDEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST, GOES-WEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
THIS TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY FRIDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
COLD FRONT FINALLY DISPLACES THE PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH THAT
HAS BEEN BLOCKING THE PATTERN UP.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST OF A JOPLIN TO JEFFERSON CITY LINE WITHIN AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT
AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE WITHIN THE
MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL WINDOW OF INSTABILITY. OUR POSITION
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE THAT PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH MEANS A BIG QUESTION
MARK SURROUNDING WHETHER WE WILL BE A PART OF THE DRYLINE
SUPERCELL CLUB AS PART OF THAT SEVERE RISK. SUPERCELLS WOULD PUT
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ON THE TABLE AS
POTENTIAL RISKS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO THE AREA. IF
OUR SEVERE RISK IS TIED ONLY TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THAT
WOULD IMPLICATE DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED SPIN-UP TORNADOES AS
THE SEVERE HAZARDS OF CONCERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, SURFACE BASED CAPES STARTING TO INCREASE TO
OUR WEST AND SHOULD CREEP IN HERE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE STORM INITIATION AHEAD OF A DRYLINE TOWARDS THE ONSET
OF THE 18Z TAFS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BEFORE THAT MAIN AREA
MOVES IN. HAVE GONE WITH PROB30S UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN A
PREDOMINANT TSRA WITH HEAVIER RAIN BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z AS THE
MAIN LINE MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THINGS SHOULD
CLEAR EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 03-04Z. MAY GET SOME STRATUS IN
HERE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT THE BBG SITE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 16:
KVIH: 85/2006
APRIL 17:
KSGF: 87/1937
KVIH: 86/2004
KUNO: 87/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 15:
KSGF: 63/2006
KJLN: 66/2006
KUNO: 62/2006
KVIH: 63/1976
APRIL 16:
KSGF: 66/1963
APRIL 17:
KSGF: 66/1976
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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