963
FXUS63 KSGF 011132
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUDY SKIES. A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65
THIS AFTERNOON.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK. EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AFTER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, THE RESPONSIBLE COLD FRONT HAS
USHERED IN A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS. TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AS
THE COMMA HEAD OF THE CYCLONE SWINGS DOWN ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
TODAY, AND GUSTY PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH EFFICIENT CAA. IN
THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 70, WHICH IS LOWER
THAN SOME OF THE PRE-COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT LOWS WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEK. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER, THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA COULD BREAK 80 DEGREES. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER INTRODUCING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY, NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES ARE STILL ONLY 4-5 DEGREES
AT MOST, INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THESE HIGHS ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, EVEN APPROACHING RECORD LOW HIGHS FOR AREAS IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
TO ADD TO THE TASTE OF FALL, OR HALLOWEEN-IN-AUGUST VIBES (SUMMER-
WEEN, IF YOU WILL), THE COMMA HEAD ENERGY MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS
VERY LOW, AS WE WILL HAVE ABOUT 150 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH, SO
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY STRATIFORM/COLD CORE IN NATURE. WE WILL
ALREADY BE DEALING WITH RELATIVELY LOW CEILINGS, SO IT IS A MATTER
OF POCKETS WITHIN THAT CLOUD DECK BECOMING SATURATED ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY RAIN OUT. MOST WILL NOT SEE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LANDING IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST WITH SOME
VALUES CLOSER TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF.
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, BUT WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT,
WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE INSOLATION THAT HELPS US REACH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 80 IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE WEST. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN AND GEOSTROPHIC FLOW IS ALMOST PERFECTLY NORTH-SOUTH,
THE AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED IN ISN'T ALL THAT CHILLY DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT AS THEY BEGIN TO
TURN CLOCKWISE TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ON MONDAY, WE LAND IN A NARROW REGION OF RIDGING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS DOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL HELP US CONTINUE ON OUR
SLOW AND STEADY WARMING TREND. THE WHOLE CWA SHOULD REACH THE 80S
WITH THE WESTERN COUNTIES POTENTIALLY BREACHING 90. IT WILL BE A
VERY PLEASANT DAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER SOME OF THE BLAST FURNACE DAYS
WE HAVE ENDURED AS OF LATE. HIGHS ARE LARGELY BACK TO NORMAL TUESDAY
WITH MORE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS SOME ENERGY DOWN OUR WAY, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY AROUND 20-40% TO AREAS NORTH OF I-44. THOUGH A
LONG-TERM SEVERE RISK HAS NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED (RIGHTFULLY SO, AS
THIS IS DAY 5), SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS TO ASSESS ITS CAPABILITY FOR ANY
FUNNY BUSINESS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE A TRUE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE 8-14 DAY TIMEFRAME, THE CPC HAS INCLUDED OUR AREA AS HAVING A
40-60% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING EXTREME HEAT NEXT WEEKEND (8/8-9),
ALONG WITH A TRULY EXPANSIVE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY, FROM THE GULF ALL
THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS
ARE ALSO IDENTIFIED AS AT RISK FOR RAPID ONSET DROUGHT IN THE 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS DESCENDED UPON SWMO, BRINGING CEILINGS
RIGHT AROUND 3KFT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP,
WITH OBSERVED GUSTS 20-30 MPH ALREADY THIS MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WIND
SPEEDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z AND CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST 00Z THROUGH 12Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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