043
FXUS63 KSGF 260526
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ON TUESDAY, THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WITH THE REGION REMAINING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A
WARMER AIR MASS. THIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 MPH. A DRY AIR
MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND AFTERNOON RH VALUES WE BE IN THE 25 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY THAN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT WILL
STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
OCCUR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES, BUT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS LIFT FROM THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR
80 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY, BUT THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES 40-60% TO THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW FAST THE RAIN MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES STARTS AS EARLY AS
LATE FRIDAY AND CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER INCREASING BETWEEN FL200-FL250.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...NELSON
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