793
FXUS63 KSGF 272324
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- LOW (10-30% CHANCE) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (70-85%) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 54.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AFTER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, FLOODING, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 4-11).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
BIGGEST STORIES:
1. IT'S VERY WARM
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES ARE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND BRINGS US BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 1 (UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S). 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS OF 8-12
DEGREES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AFTER IT STALLS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES STALL ATOP THE OZARKS AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED, TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM MID 60S NEAR THE
OK/MO BORDER TO MID 40S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
2. ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
3. SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS A SYNOPTIC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, SEVERAL MID- LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA AND SERVE AS A LOCALIZED SOURCE OF LIFT. WITHOUT
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT
WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO
OVERCOME THE DEEP SURFACE-BASED LAYER OF DRY AIR TO PRECIPITATE
AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN VIRGA AT BEST. HOWEVER, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW BETTER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL GIVE SHOWERS A BETTER, IF STILL SLIM (10-30%), CHANCE
OF MAKING IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
4. WIDESPREAD 60-85% PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
MOISTURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR THAT DELAYS THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH INITIAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SATURDAY DAYTIME SURGE BEING REPLACED BY DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY ACCORDING TO MOST RECENT REFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, A
SECONDARY MOISTURE PLUME WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY, AS
WELL AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, ONCE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE GO-TIME FOR THE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
5. MIXED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE/TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE,
THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS CONTRIBUTING TO AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE IN OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES (NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54) ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR
STARTS SETTLING INTO THE AREA, A WINTRY MIX COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION CHANGES THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE BACK TO RAIN MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THIS P-TYPE ASSESSMENT REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE SENSITIVITY AND
LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
6. RAIN CHANCES STAY HIGH AFTER SUNDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY'S PRECIP WILL BE THE FIRST OF MANY
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAIN BEGINS.
MONDAY FEATURES 20-50% CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
AND STARTS TRYING TO NUDGE BACK NORTH AS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY BASED ON YOUR LOCATION IN RELATION TO
THE FRONT, BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY NEAR THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND UPPER 40S/50S FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
A LIST OF INTERESTING THINGS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN,
CONTINUED:
7. MOISTURE!
GFS IVT STARTS TO INDICATE A MOISTURE PLUME WITH SOME SUBSTANCE
TO IT FLOWING OFF THE GULF AND THROUGH THE OZARKS INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AFTER TUESDAY. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND A LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THERE
WILL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE CONTINUOUS MOISTURE
COULD SERVE TO FUEL HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
8. STORMS!
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE EJECTIONS INTO THE PLAINS, PAIRED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW, A CONSISTENT STREAM OF HIGH-QUALITY MOISTURE,
AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MONTH OF MARCH LIKELY
SPELLS OUT SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. WHETHER OR NOT THAT "SOMEWHERE" WILL TURN OUT TO BE THE
OZARKS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ALL OF THOSE INGREDIENTS
ACTUALLY LINE UP OVER OUR AREA, WHICH IS STILL UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME.
9. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING WEEK TO SEE HOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST ELEMENTS EVOLVE, BECAUSE THERE ARE
NUMEROUS FACTORS RESULTING IN COMPOUNDING UNCERTAINTY AS TIME
GOES ON. VERY FEW DETAILS ARE SET IN STONE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND SKIES STAY
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
TODAY:
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING DEEP, EFFICIENT MIXING. MOISTURE RECOVERY THIS MORNING
WAS PRETTY VARIABLE ACROSS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH
REMNANTS OF NARROW CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT STILL VISIBLE WHEN LOOKING AT DEW POINT OBSERVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FACT, PAIRED WITH HYPER-LOCAL TERRAIN
INFLUENCES ON HEATING AND MIXING, IS GENERALLY KEEPING SUB-20%
RH VALUES CONFINED TO LOCALIZED AREAS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 6-7KFT (POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 8KFT IN THE
MOST WELL-MIXED AREAS).
10-15 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH IN
MOST OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET IN AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 IN MISSOURI. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
FIRE RISK REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THESE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WINDS, WHICH IS BORDERLINE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT GUSTS >30 MPH REMAINS BELOW 50%, WHICH
IS WHY A RED FLAG WARNING HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED. HOWEVER,
"BORDERLINE" RED FLAG FIRE CONDITIONS ARE STILL CONDUCIVE TO
RAPID SPREAD OR LOSS OF CONTROL OF ANY FIRES THAT ARE STARTED BY
ANYONE EXCEPT EXPERIENCED FIRE PERSONNEL.
TONIGHT:
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW AN INVERSION TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE LOWEST 100-300 FEET, WHICH COULD TRAP SMOKE/A
"SMOKEY SMELL" IN THE VICINITY OF ANY LARGE BURNS THIS EVENING.
THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS CLOUD COVER INFILTRATES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RECOVERY WILL BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH A <20%
CHANCE OF RHS INCREASING ABOVE 75% AS THE CLOUD COVER BEGINS
LIMITING EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SATURDAY:
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE
DANGER DAY, WITH AFTERNOON RHS 20-30% POSSIBLE AGAIN AMIDST
10-20 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY THE MISALIGNMENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-44. HOWEVER, THE NON-UNIFORMITY OF THE
MOISTURE FIELD OBSERVED ON FRIDAY MAY BLEED INTO SATURDAY SOME,
MEANING THERE COULD STILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS THAT DO SEE OVERLAP
BETWEEN SUB-30% RHS AND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
RECENT DROUGHT AND PRECIPITATION DEFICIT HAS AREA STREAMFLOWS
AND SOIL MOISTURE RUNNING LOW GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE AND POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL THAT DROUGHT COULD BE
GREATLY REDUCED OR ELIMINATED IN THE COMING WEEKS. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO HOW EXACTLY THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL AFFECT THE OZARKS, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
STREAMFLOW PROJECTIONS AND WATER MODEL TRENDS OVER THE COMING
WEEK TO EVALUATE WHETHER THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO SATURATE THE SOILS AND PUSH US OVER INTO FLOODING TERRITORY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 28:
KSGF: 77/2017
KJLN: 78/1972
KUNO: 77/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 4:
KSGF: 58/2024
MARCH 5:
KSGF: 56/1992
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...SORIA
FIRE WEATHER...CAMDEN
HYDROLOGY...CAMDEN
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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