056
FXUS63 KSGF 222026
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND BREEZY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND
MIN RH IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS A DEEP TROUGH
IS CHURNING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTING TO
REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES.
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN A
RIDGE AND A TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY UP
TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
THIS EVENING BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
65 TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS ARE FORECAST TO STAY NEAR 25 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT WHILE OVER IN SW MO WE'LL SEE WINDS NEAR 10
MPH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK IN THE
TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CALMER
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OVER THE EAST COAST. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TUESDAY WILL BE THE DAY WE NEED TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED TO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A DRY AIR MASS SETTLES
IN AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COULD BE CLOSE TO OUR
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA AND WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THOSE CONDITIONS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S AND ALMOST
TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMES
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND
IS FORECAST TO BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE POPS IN THE
40-60% RANGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION FROM THAT
EVENT WITH MOST PLACES GETTING LESS THAN 1" IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AND WINDS STAY ELEVATED NEAR 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
FOR MONDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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