174
FXUS63 KSGF 071034
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
434 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THEN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMALS IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A
WARMER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOCATIONS WARMING TO NEAR 70. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 20% ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY, BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST TODAY SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20MPH COULD OCCUR
AT TIMES. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN US COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LIFT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH LIGHTNING BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY
THEN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS STRONG FORCING OCCURS.
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44
CLOSER TO THE LOW, IT'S POSSIBLE THE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ARE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STRONG SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE AND WITH THE FORCING THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN RISK. THE SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY SO OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
HIGH OVERALL, RANGING FROM AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-44.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE
MUCH COOLER AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S AGAIN. AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AS HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THEREFORE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TODAY AND TOMORROW THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS
ARE SHOWING THE BETTER POTENTIAL OCCURING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
AND ANOTHER AREA TO THE NORTH. THIS NORTHERN PRECIPITATION
COULD CLIP PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
MOSTLY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NO IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY ONLY THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION
WITH IT BUT A FEW FLURRIES COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI. AGAIN NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOW/MID 50S
EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH DAY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
SOME SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. KJLN HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF BEING
AFFECT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TO THE EAST
AS COVERAGE AND CHANCES DECREASE PRIOR TO 12Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page