160
FXUS63 KSGF 042326
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING UP INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
OF HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- MONITORING FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT 7-10 DAYS OUT (LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
AROUND 80 TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 25-40%
(LOWEST ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 65). LIGHT BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
NNE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAINFALL: THE ONLY RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS
A 20% CHANCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON A TROPIC SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA, WHICH IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR < 0.10
INCHES OF TOTAL QPF THROUGH OCTOBER 12TH IS GENERALLY 80-90%.
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY: LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN LOW TO UPPER 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY AT 25-35%
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-49 BEING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 BEING LOWER
WITH SEVERAL DAYS BELOW 25% AND PERHAPS SOME DAYS BELOW 20%.
FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK:
STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT IN DETAILS, BUT MODELS ARE STARTING
TO SHOW A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS AND MINIMAL TO NO RAINFALL
NEXT WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THIS MAY BE CONCERNING GIVEN SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RECENT RAINFALL ON TOP OF
EXTENSIVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, AND PERSISTENT LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY. ENSEMBLE
75TH-90TH PERCENTILE GUSTS (REPRESENTING THE REASONABLE HIGHER
END OF MODEL GUIDANCE) ARE GENERALLY OF 20-30 MPH SATURDAY AND
25-40 MPH NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY BEING EVEN GUSTIER.
WHILE THESE WINDS ARE NOT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THEY ARE A
PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME AND WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON GIVEN EXPECTED
FUEL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
WIND SPEEDS PERSISTING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SORIA
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