638
FXUS63 KSGF 011120
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 60 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRIMARY HAZARD OF WINDS 55-60 MPH AND SECONDARY RISK OF LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS THROUGH 9 AM.
- FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ANY PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN A 1-3 HOUR TIMEFRAME.
- WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
STORMS ARE FORMING GENERALLY ALONG TWO AXES AT 230 AM LOCAL:
JUST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 IN NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND ALONG A
FORT SCOTT KS TO INDEPENDENCE KS LINE TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BOTH AXES ARE ALIGNED WITH SUBTLE
25-30KT JET STREAKS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB RIDGE.
EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR IS FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SLOWLY EASTWARD
BEFORE PIVOTING AND TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY DIVE AROUND THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS AREA AND TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. STORMS
SHOULD RIDE GENERALLY ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, AND
ACCELERATE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. STORM MOTION SEEMS TO LIKELY
TAKE THE CLUSTER RIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF OUR CWA WITH LSX BUT
MOSTLY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, BUT BLEED OVER INTO OUR AREA
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BACKBUILD IN A DIFFERENT
DIRECTION THAN THEY'RE PROPAGATING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AS THE CLUSTER MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL MO, BUT IF THE COMPLEX MOVES FURTHER INTO OUR AREA,
THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND
DECREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR, WHICH WILL DECREASE OUR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS CONTINUE. IF THE CLUSTER
GETS WELL-ORGANIZED AND A DOMINANT COLD POOL DEVELOPS, THE
ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY OF
THE MITIGATING FACTORS AND SUSTAIN ITS SEVERE THREAT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES IN THESE STORMS ARE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR, AND WITH ONE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN
1.4-2", IT LIKELY WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS
WHERE IT RAINS. STORMS HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ARE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, SO THESE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUSTAINED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING WILL INCREASE
FLASH FLOODING RISK, BUT THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON STORMS
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR COUNTIES. WITHOUT STORMS, FLOOD
POTENTIAL WON'T MATERIALIZE.
AS FOR THE WESTERN STORMS NEAR THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND WEST,
OUTFLOW HAS RACED AHEAD OF THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS AND
UPDRAFTS HAVE LONG WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTFLOW, BUT ANY SEVERE
WIND OR HAIL RISK WITH THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
SOME CAMS ARE HINTING AT ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND WHETHER STORMS WOULD DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH NORTH
THAT IT WOULD IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IS STILL LOW. THE
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR TODAY COVERS THIS CONDITIONAL
THREAT. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY
RISK OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS IF STORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER
THE EASTERN OZARKS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S AND EVEN LOW 90S WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. IT WILL STAY JUST AS
HUMID AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, SO HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO NEAR
100 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
RIDGING PERSISTS WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY, A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN ON
WEDNESDAY SO IT DOESN'T FEEL QUITE AS MUGGY. POPS STAY BELOW
20% UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, REFLECTING THAT GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE.
RAIN COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING, OR AS LATE AS
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
OUTFLOW AND THE REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
MOVED PAST THE TAF SITES, WITH WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY
VEER FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH.
LOW (<30%) CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
KBBG AND KSGF WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS/STORMS IF
THE CONDITIONAL RISK DID PAN OUT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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