315
FXUS63 KSGF 221840
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEEKEND WINTER STORM: WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 12 PM SUNDAY. AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA (85-95% CHANCE).
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE POTENTIAL UPPER-END AMOUNTS
DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM'S EXACT TRACK. A REASONABLE HIGH-END
SCENARIO IS UPWARDS OF 10-12+ INCHES OF SNOW.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12 PM
SATURDAY. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) AND WIND
CHILLS BELOW -10 F WILL BE LIKELY EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND.
SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND'S SNOWFALL, WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIME
IT TAKES FOR ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND TO CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO STAY STAGNANT BUT DYNAMIC WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA/CONUS. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE HAS IN THE PATTERN EXCEPT FOR THE INCOMING EASTERN
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. YET ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED RIGHT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BORDER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
MARGINALLY COLDER BEHIND IT WILL BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 20S THIS MORNING.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY:
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE AREA, HIGHS WILL
STILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE THE COLDER AIR MASS IS STARTING TO DROP SOUTH. AS NIGHT
FALLS, THOUGH, THE STRENGTHENING LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN PULLING DOWN AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FILTER IN THE ARCTIC AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BEGIN PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER.
SNEAKY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT PRESENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON:
VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE INCOMING ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH HIGHS ARE ONLY GOING TO REACH A BALMY
MIDDLE TEENS TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY, WELL BELOW ZERO DEWPOINTS
(0.5TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE. PAIR THAT WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEING COMPACTED BY THE ARCTIC HIGH, AND WE START GETTING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. THEREFORE, IF
SUSTAINED WINDS CAN EEK INTO THE 20 MPH RANGE, SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS MAY BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA. LATEST 00Z HREF
GUIDANCE GIVES A 10-20% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IN LOCALIZED
AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 12 PM SUNDAY:
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN PLACE, MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANY QPF OUTPUT BY
MODELS MAY BE A TAD PREMATURE DUE TO THE EXPECTED DRY AIR IN
PLACE. FOR THOSE REASONS, THE START TIME FOR THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 6 PM FRIDAY.
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS STILL UNCERTAIN; 10-12+ INCHES ARE ATTAINABLE:
HURRICANE HUNTERS RECONNED DATA FROM THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE OF CALIFORNIA. AS YOU MAY RECALL FROM NUMEROUS PREVIOUS
AFDS, THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
THE DESCENDING ARCTIC WAVE WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA. THE RECON ALLEGEDLY MADE IT INTO 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE, HOPEFULLY PROVIDING MORE ACCURATE OBSERVATIONS
FOR A BETTER HANDLE ON TRACK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS DO
SEEM TO BE IN WIDE-RANGING AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF OUR AREA WILL
SEE AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW (85-95% CHANCE FROM THE NBM; 90%
CHANCE FROM THE 00Z LREF). THE BAD NEWS, IS THAT THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN LEANING TOWARD TWO WAVES/SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A
TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER CLOSED LOW PROGRESSION. THE FIRST WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE CRASHING ARCTIC HIGH INTO GULF
MOISTURE (THIS FITS WITH ICE STORM CLIMATOLOGY, HENCE THE ICE IN
THE SOUTHERN STATES). THE SECOND WAVE IS THEN THE EJECTION OF
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. LATEST GUIDANCE
PIVOTS THIS WAVE TO MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED OF A TROUGH WHICH
THEN PIVOTS THE SYSTEM TO MORE OF OUR HEAVY SNOW CLIMATOLOGY--
WHICH IS LEADING TO A TREND IN HIGHER UPPER-END AMOUNTS. SO NOW
WE HAVE TWO SYSTEMS TO IRON OUT THE EXACT TRACKS OF AND THE
TRACK OF BOTH WILL DETERMINE HOW HIGH OUR SNOW AMOUNTS CAN GET.
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, WITH TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, THERE'S
PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MOST AREAS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 2-4
INCHES OF SNOW (85-95% CHANCE). LREF HISTOGRAMS REVEAL A HEAVY
RIGHT SKEW IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH NO MEMBERS BELOW 2 INCHES OF
SNOW. THE MODE (MOST MEMBERS) FORECAST 5-8 INCHES (35% OF
MEMBERS). THE SKEW CONTINUES FAR RIGHT FROM THERE WITH EVEN 30%
OF MEMBERS DEPICTING 10-15 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH SUCH A HEAVY
SKEW, THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT RANGE OF EXPECTED OUTCOMES
(5-12 INCH 25TH-75TH RANGE). THUS, THE MESSAGE IS LARGELY TO
EXPECT AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES, BUT PREPARE FOR UPWARDS OF 10-12+
INCHES.
THE TWO-WAVE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THERE COULD BE A LULL IN SNOW
SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SO IF IT STOPS SNOWING,
ANOTHER ROUND IS POTENTIALLY STILL ON THE WAY.
THE ABOVE ACCUMULATIONS WERE ESTIMATED FROM A SLR OF AROUND
12:1 TO 14:1. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO DECREASING SLRS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SNOW EVENT SINCE SUCH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR WILL
INCREASE TIME BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND (MAYBE EVEN
STARTING AS SLEETY SNOW). HOWEVER, REFRAINED FROM MAKING EDITS
AT THIS TIME. WITH THE TWO ROUNDS GENERALLY LINING UP WELL WITH
NIGHTTIME, ALSO KEPT SLRS THROUGH THE EVENT THE SAME. IF A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SNOW WERE FORECAST TO FALL DURING THE DAY,
CONSIDERATION OF LOWER AMOUNTS WOULD BE GIVEN.
TIMING:
AS STATED BEFORE, ONSET TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 6 PM FRIDAY. THE FIRST ROUND IS EXPECTED TO LAST FROM
THEN UNTIL AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN A LULL IS
POSISBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACKS. THE SECOND WAVE OF SNOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO ONSET LATE SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LINGERING SNOW LASTING EVEN INTO SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH.
THEREFORE, WINTRY IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
IMPACTS:
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES AND 8-12
INCHES IS ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE. BOTH WILL PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE
TRAVEL IMPACTS AS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LET SNOW STICK
IMMEDIATELY AND EFFICIENTLY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT IT WILL
OF COURSE TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (OR SHOVEL) MORE SNOW THAN LESS
SNOW, BUT WITH ACCUMULATIONS SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME, KEEPING UP WITH RATES CAN COMBAT THIS. THE SREF ONLY
GIVES A 10-30% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. SNOW
LOAD, EVEN AT 8-12 INCHES, WILL LIKELY BE FELT LESS AS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND FLUFFY DUE TO THE COLD AIR. LASTLY, THE
COMBINED DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO SPECIAL
CONSIDERATION OF IMPACTS. ANY STRANDED VEHICLES WILL NEED TO
HAVE PERSONS PROPERLY EQUIPPED FOR SUCH DANGEROUS COLD, ADDING
TO THE SAFETY THREAT OF PERSONS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING:
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS,
POTENTIALLY BELOW ZERO NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT 12-18 MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
NEGATIVES, AROUND -5 TO -15 F WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI. FOR THAT REASON, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 AM TO 12 PM SATURDAY.
A DECREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY MAY KEEP CRITERIA FROM BEING
ACHIEVED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DESPITE LOWS BACK IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, BUT IF THINGS TREND COLDER,
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THAT SAID, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY COLD.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOWER TEENS, BUT THIS IS AT THE
MIDDLE OF THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREAD DISTRIBUTION. THAT MEANS
THERE IS STILL A 50% CHANCE OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO NEAR EXTREME COLD CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT:
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TANK INTO THE NEGATIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS, LREF HISTOGRAMS SUGGEST A 30% CHANCE OF <-10 F. WITH
SNOWPACK PRETTY MUCH EXPECTED BY THIS POINT, THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ATTAINABLE. CONSEQUENTIALLY, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -25 F RANGE, APPROACHING EXTREME COLD
WARNING CRITERIA. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE FOR SUCH COLD.
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY:
SPECIAL CONSIDERATION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THE FACT THAT WE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL
STICK AROUND FOR A LOT LONGER. SO ANY AREAS THAT SEE IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL COULD EXPERIENCE LINGERING IMPACTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
(E.G., DIFFICULTY CLEARING SNOW). JUST ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT
TO PREPARE FOR AS MOST SNOW EVENTS IN THE OZARKS BEGIN MELTING
SHORTLY AFTER THE EVENT. IN THIS CASE, SNOW DEPTH WILL LINGER A
BIT LONGER. NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREADS PAST TUESDAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 30S, SO THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL
THAT THE STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LASTS LONGER
THAN TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY ON FRIDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...TITUS
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