818
FXUS63 KSGF 261917
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS LATE
AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEVERAL ROUNDS/CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO LIME
SIZE (2 IN DIAMETER), DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND
TORNADOES. HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STORM MODE.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, WITH A GREATER
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND TORNADOES
ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL IS THE
MAIN HAZARD.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOODING
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
KANSAS WITH STRONGER ENERGY SEEN MOVING THROUGH COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS VERY COMPLEX WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY NORTH TO SOUTH FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM
FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEWS/INSTABILITY WAS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE 12Z KSGF
SOUNDING, MESO TRENDS AND SATELLITE DATA STILL SUPPORTS A CAPPED
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. IN RESPONSE, TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WERE LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE MOSTLY, HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN
END IS BECOMING MORE SURFACE BASED.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING - OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING:
A MESSY AND COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS/ROUNDS OF STORMS. THERE SEEMS TO A GROWING
TREND THAT AS STRONGER LIFT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON, STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THESE STORMS COULD CLIP LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE
ELEVATED NATURE. IF THEY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THEN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
THE OTHER FOCUS AREA TO WATCH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT
AS THAT WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND SHOULD FORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. CAMS
SUGGEST THAT THESE COULD CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY
INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ELEVATED
CAPE), THEREFORE LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN
CLOSE TO THAT WARM FRONT (WHICH WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO, WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN A CONDITIONAL
INTENSITY 1 CATEGORY FOR STRONG TORNADOES, IF A TORNADO WHERE TO
FORM. FORECAST STP (SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER) VALUES
ACROSS THE WEST LOOK TO GET TO 1-3, THEREFORE WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE ENVIRONMENT CLOSELY TONIGHT.
WITH LIFT CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST, WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE FURTHER SOUTH
OF I-44 IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WE WILL SEE. IF THE WARM
FRONT IS SLOWER TO MOVE IN THEN STORMS COULD MOVE IN FURTHER
SOUTH THAN FORECAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN EVOLVING SITUATION
WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FLOODING POTENTIAL: SOME OF THE MORE RECENT CAMS SUGGEST A
CORRIDOR OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE HOWEVER IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, A CORRIDOR OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR
WHICH WOULD CAUSE FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANY SHORT
FUSE FLOOD WATCHES.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-44. THIS CREATES A COMPLICATED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM REDEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN 12Z HREF DATA TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
AS THE STRONG LIFT MOVES INTO MISSOURI, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SPRINGFIELD AND POINTS EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED
AIRMASS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH WILL PUMP IN
SURFACE DEWS IN THE 60S WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S. MEAN SB
CAPES MAY REACH 3000J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60KTS. FORECAST
LARGE HAIL PARAMETERS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST VALUES AS HIGH AS 20
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW HELICITY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER IT DOES INCREASE
IN THE EVENING. THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS
STORMS MOVE EAST, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 WHERE STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DON'T CONGEAL AND SRH IS HIGH
ENOUGH.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HOW EARLY AND HOW FAR WEST STORMS
REDEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW STORMS ALONG OR WEST OF
I-49 HOWEVER MOST SEEM TO WANT TO DEVELOP THEM NEAR THE HIGHWAY
65 CORRIDOR (IN THE 3-6PM WINDOW) AND THEN REALLY INCREASE THE
STRENGTH AS THEY GO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RAPIDLY EVOLVING
SITUATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
UPDATES LIKELY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
ADDITIONAL STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY: THERE IS A CONTINUED TREND
THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY, BACK INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
COULD FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STORMS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT LIFTS ANY FARTHER NORTH (CLOSER TO
I-44), THEN WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL HAZARDS AS
STORMS COULD TRY TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.
PATTERN CHANGE MID/LATE WEEK: A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND
A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN IS LOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO OR PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE
TRIED TO KEEP THE PROB30S LIMITED TO TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER AT JLN AND SGF. HOWEVER IF
STORMS DEVELOP EARLIER, THEN WE MADE NEED AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
25-30KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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