194
FXUS63 KSGF 200435
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, NEAR 80. MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK.
- THE CPC GIVES A 70-80% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER, WITH A TROUGH
DISPLACED WEST OF THE REGION. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MID- LEVELS, SUPPORTING SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER TODAY, THOUGH MINIMAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAS KEPT US
DRY. HIGHS TODAY REACH NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID OCTOBER, RANGING
FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE
PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S, NEAR
50, WITH A BIT LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO
THE 30S AGAIN. ANY PATCHY FROST WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
VALLEYS AND SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MID-
LEVELS INTO MID-WEEK, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TOUCH BETTER SATURATION INTO THE MID-
LEVELS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ON
TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, WHERE 10-15%
POPS WERE INTRODUCED. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER
QUIET WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S OCCURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
A RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES INTO THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS
IS ANYWHERE FROM THE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE OCTOBER. ADDITIONALLY, THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BECOME DISPLACED FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA. THUS, ANY POPS
WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND. THE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (70-80%
CHANCE) PERSISTS INTO LATE OCTOBER, AS CAPTURED BY THE LATEST
CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN 15-20KFT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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