386
FXUS63 KSGF 282322
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING (50-70% CHANCE). WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS, THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-44. LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS IS THE MAIN HAZARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DUE TO CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY REPEATED RAINFALLS OR TRAINING OF
STORMS.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ON THE SGF 12Z
SOUNDING, ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS FROM 1000 TO 2500 J/KG, WITH
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES FROM 7 TO 8.5. A MIDDLE LEVEL 700MB TROUGH
WAS APPROACHING THE REGION WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE OZARKS YESTERDAY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL
HAVE MIDDLE AN UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WITH A 30-40KTS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB, 40 TO 55KTS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
700MB, AND A COUPLED JET OVER THE OZARKS AT 250MB. THIS WILL
ALLOW ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS REMAINED VERY LONG AND STRAIGHT
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION WHICH WOULD FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR LEFT-MOVERS OVER RIGHT- MOVERS.
THERE'S REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER, STORM, AND SEVERE
CHANCES BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
ASCENT WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT, THESE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD, WHICH COULD OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE, WASHING OUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE. WHAT MAY AID IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A LIFTING WARM FRONT THAT AS OF THE 1PM
MESOSCALE INTERROGATIONS LOOKS TO HAVE LIFTED INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FROM ROGERS, AR TO NORTH OF BRANSON TO JUST SOUTH OF
WEST PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ENHANCED VORTICITY AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WOULD ALSO
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP,
ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP.
FINALLY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL HAVE
ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, THOUGH
RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE SHORTER. THIS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI, AND THE LOWER 40S IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS STORMS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND ALLOW FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY THOUGH POSSIBLY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD TO
THE TROUGH BUT SYNOPTIC MODELS WASH OUT THE RAIN BEFORE IT
REACHES THE REGION. OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOWS LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL BE ZONAL INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN AND ROUNDS OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE COOLEST PERIOD STILL LOOKS
LIGHT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE MAY BE A LOW END FROST
RISK IF TRENDS CONTINUE DECREASING TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A POTENTIAL WARM-UP BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE AREA. PERIODS BETWEEN 00Z-04Z COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF LIFR CIGS, PRIMARILY AT KSGF AND KBBG BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT KJLN BY 05Z-06Z AND KSGF/KBBG
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 5-10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...MELTO
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