910
FXUS63 KSGF 190406 AAA
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS NEAR 100
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105 CAN BE EXPECTED. DAILY RECORDS
MAY CONTINUE TO BE TIED OR BROKEN.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE COOLDOWN AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE OVERVIEW:
THE MISSOURI OZARKS REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER A PROMINENT UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AS A CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT SITS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI ATTACHED
TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EARLY AFTERNOON
OBS SHOW DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE OF A FAIRLY MUTED
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE REGION AT THIS POINT.
HEAT CONTINUES:
THE HOT, STAGNANT AIR UNDER THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE
TO HIGH DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE NBM HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
TOO COOL IN ITS FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REGIME, PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING SHOULD PROVE USEFUL, SO WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD, AND THEY WILL ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORDS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS TODAY:
AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO AGITATE THE CU FIELD AND
RESULT IN ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEW POINTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAY PREVENT MUCH FROM
FIRING OR GETTING TOO ROBUST FOR THESE LOCATIONS; THE GREATEST
CHANCES MAY MANIFEST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 AND
EAST OF HWY 65 WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. INDEED,
CAMS TEND TO FAVOR THIS AREA IN SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY. A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A PULSE-TYPE STORM MODE. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE, RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS VERTICAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 30 C MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND GUST
THREAT UP TO 60 MPH. MOST IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE, HOWEVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT - MON:
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS IT DOES SO, THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOG THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH THE SLOW
SPEED OF THE FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND FINALLY MOVE
OUT ON MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE STATED, HOWEVER, THAT ALL DAY
WASHOUTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS CONVECTION MAY STRENGTHEN AND
DIMINISH MULTIPLE TIMES WITHIN THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.
OVERALL, THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST NORTH OF I-44
WHERE THE GREATEST PWATS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE, BUT THE
HIGHER TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LOCALIZED.
NBM PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL (SAT NIGHT THRU MON):
>0.10 INCH: 50-70%
>0.25 INCH: 40-60%
>1.00 INCH: 10-25%
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK:
YES, THE COLD FRONT WILL INDEED BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER TREND OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AN EXTENSION
OF THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR
AN ADDITIONAL DAY, BUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING, TEMPERATURES, DEW
POINTS, AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIMIT CONFIDENCE TOO GREATLY TO
MAKE THAT DETERMINATION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AFTER SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE. THERE REMAINS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY HOW MUCH COOLER THEY WILL BE, HOWEVER, WITH ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS CONTINUING TO SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN JUST HOW MUCH THE
RIDGE GETS DAMPENED. THAT SAID, THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE
WOULD SUPPORT NEAR-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY (NEAR 80 DEG) AND EVEN *BELOW-AVERAGE*
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS LIKE FRONTAL TIMING,
CLOUD COVER, AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
TEMPERATURES ANY ONE LOCATION WILL EXPERIENCE, BUT THE SIGNAL
FOR COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IS CLEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING GUSTS
AROUND 20KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 97/2022
KVIH: 95/1953
KUNO: 96/1972
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 96/1954
KJLN: 99/2024
KUNO: 97/1954
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 97/1954
KVIH: 95/1954
KUNO: 97/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 18:
KSGF: 74/1931
SEPTEMBER 19:
KSGF: 73/1931
SEPTEMBER 20:
KSGF: 74/2018
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...NELSON
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