875
FXUS63 KSGF 250730
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGHS 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY WITH
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH A NORTHWEST- TO- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE 00Z SGF
SOUNDING REVEALED A QUITE-DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH RESULTANT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STRUGGLING TO RECOVER EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. A
FEW ISOLATED OBSERVATIONS HAVE SPORADICALLY REPORTED REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE; OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION.
HOT, DRY, AND A BIT WINDY TODAY AND TOMORROW:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
USHER IN A WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIRMASS. TO THE FORMER,
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16 TO
19 DEG C RANGE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR, WITH VALUES IN
THE 14 TO 16 DEG C RANGE TO THE EAST. THESE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT SURFACE HIGHS OF 80 TO 87 DEG F. TO THE LATTER, MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL BE HIGHER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT GULF MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT
ELEVATION-DRIVEN VARIATION IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH
HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN, BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
50S WILL BE COMMON. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
OFFSET BY THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, AND MINIMUM RHS WILL
BE IN THE 35 TO 45% RANGE. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
DANGER OVERALL TODAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS OUT THERE WHERE RHS APPROACH 35% AND GUSTS EXCEED 20
MPH.
THURSDAY, IN A NUTSHELL, WILL ESSENTIALLY BE WEDNESDAY+. THAT
IS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER, RHS WILL BE A BIT LOWER,
AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN
QUITE SMALL, INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. FOR REFERENCE, THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGE HIGHS RANGE FROM 59 TO 63 DEGREES. WHILE DAILY RECORDS
WILL BE CHALLENGED ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A CLEAN
SWEEP OF ALL FOUR CLIMATE SITES ON THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. FURTHERMORE, WHILE MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THURSDAY, POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT EAGER TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND LOWER AFTERNOON RHS. CURRENT NBM
OUTPUT DEPICTS MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE, THOUGH
REFS PROBABILITIES OF RH <30% ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 TO 60%,
SO WE HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
RHS OF 25% POSSIBLE. INDEED, THE HOT-DRY-WINDY INDEX IS FORECAST
TO EXCEED THE 90TH--AND POSSIBLY 95TH--PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST RH VALUES MAY BE NECESSARY IN
THE FUTURE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY:
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSITING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND APPROACHING
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A PROMINENT
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF
FACTORS THAT LIMIT OUR CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE, LONGEVITY,
AND INTENSITY IN THE MISSOURI OZARKS, HOWEVER. NAMELY, THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN, AND THE
TIMING/OVERLAP OF A CONDUCIVE PARAMETER SPACE ARE ALL IN
QUESTION. SHOULD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INDEED OCCUR IN THE
FORECAST AREA, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH THEIR LATEST UPDATE THOUGH HAS
NOTABLY PULLED IT EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. DETAILS
WILL (HOPEFULLY) BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
WE GET INTO RANGE OF THE CAMS.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AMONG THE GUIDANCE, THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST FRONTAL ORIENTATION BUT A
SOUTHEASTWARD FRONTAL MOTION, STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT LINGER OVER
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR TOO LONG, WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVERALL. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE.
LATEST 24-HR NBM PRECIPITATION TOTAL PROBABILITIES:
>0.10 INCH: 40-80%
>0.25 INCH: 25-65%
>0.50 INCH: 10-40%
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN OVERALL.
ANOTHER WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TUMBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE
NEARLY 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAY PRIOR. THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE RIDGE BACK TO
THE EAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO THAT END, NBM
TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE DATA SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WARMING TREND AS FORECAST TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY.
MAYBE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK:
EXTENDED GEFS AND ECMWF PRODUCTS SUGGEST THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY
SIT UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES AND POTENTIALLY
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. INDEED, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR CHANCES FOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED
HIGH CIRRUS CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW SPORADIC
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT
TAFS. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSER TO 30 KT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 25:
KSGF: 83/1910
KJLN: 88/1910
KVIH: 80/1959
KUNO: 79/2012
MARCH 26:
KSGF: 82/2020
KJLN: 86/1910
KVIH: 83/2020
KUNO: 86/2020
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLIMATE...TITUS
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