755
FXUS63 KSGF 302307
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 2 OF SEVERE WEATHER (ENHANCED RISK 3 OF 5) CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MO. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AND BREEZY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY NIGHT, INTRODUCING A
FROST RISK, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
GUSTS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ON WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOME A CONCERN.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:
THE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT,
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 TO 3 PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
THIS CAN BE VISUALIZED AS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE SURFACE FRONT RUNNING PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 44, ROUGHLY
FROM BRANSON TO ROLLA. THE ADVANCEMENT OF THIS COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON REMAINS A KEY
COMPONENT TO THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, AN
EXISTING COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER SLOWLY
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING. AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE EAST, GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
SHOWING MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTH OUT OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CLEARING
OVERLAPPING SOUTH CENTRAL MO, THAT WILL FURTHER AID IN DAYTIME
HEATING.
ASSUMING SOUTH CENTRAL MO IS ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT IS PROGGED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT RAP
ANALYSIS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON, IN THE VICINITY OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. THUS, SUPPORTING RAPID UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THIS REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE AFTER
INITIAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION, BEFORE POTENTIALLY GETTING MESSY
WITH STORM INTERACTIONS AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH. GIVEN THE MORE
FAVORABLE SCENARIO OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS IN THE AREA, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS LARGE HAIL, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
TAKING A CLOSER AT HAZARDS, LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE GREATEST
CONCERN. RAP SUGGESTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM IN
THE VICINITY OF 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE (-10 TO -30 C). THE LARGE HAIL PARAMETER VALUES REMAIN ON
TRACK TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 14, WITH RESEARCH SUGGESTING THAT
THIS LEADS TO MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS OR LARGER. AS
FOR DAMAGING WINDS, THEY REMAIN A PLAUSIBLE HAZARD, ESPECIALLY
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OR SEGMENTS.
MEANWHILE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR TO THE NE, SUPPORTING ELONGATED AND RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS. LOW- LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MODEST
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AS IS STORM- RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE
SAME LAYER BELOW 100 M2/S2. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY. THESE POINT TO A LOWER TORNADO
RISK AND MORE OF A LARGE HAIL RISK WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
TO BRING EVERYTHING TOGETHER, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS IN SMALL WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 6 PM. THIS LEAVES A 2
TO 4 HOUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
ACTIVITY QUICKLY EXITS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AFTER 6 PM. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD IS LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SMALL CHANGES IN THE MESOSCALE, SUCH AS A QUICKER
MOVING COLD FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA STILL. MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL UPDATES TO THE LATEST TRENDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TONIGHT: THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING.
MONDAY: COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 60 ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. THIS A 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. AS CLOUDS
CLEAR INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SO THE QUESTION IS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH IN
LOCATIONS FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT? NBM SPREAD REMAINS AROUND 5
DEGREES BETWEEN THE 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES, RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S (ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65),
DECREASING TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S (ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS). AREAS
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE OZARK AND SALEM PLATEAUS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING FROST-SUPPORTING CONDITIONS, WITH A 60-90%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 37 DEGREES. HOWEVER, A HARD FREEZE
SEEMS UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS WITH LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 32 DEGREES OR LOWER.
IN GENERAL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT, BUT
RATHER LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
UPDATES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TUESDAY: A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SOME AREAS. A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG THE LOW- LEVEL
JET HIGHS ON TUESDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NBM
PROBABILITIES DEPICT THE FOLLOWING:
WIND GUST > 30 MPH: 80-100%
WIND GUST > 35 MPH: 60-80%
WIND GUST > 40 MPH: 40-60%
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
NOCTURNAL LOW- LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, THOUGH THE "MOST LIKELY"
WIND FORECAST RANGE IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
MAY NEED FURTHER EVALUATED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
TUESDAY NIGHT: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS A STRONG JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE SURFACE MASS
RESPONSE WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE WILL QUICKLY
ADVECT IN 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS, INCREASING INSTABILITY TO
1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. AS SUCH, GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE IN EAST-CENTRAL KS, WHICH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
A FEW SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM, AS DENOTED IN THE RECENT SPC SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
EXPANSION EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
EVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO MID-WEEK, STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW FURTHER DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID 60 DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WITH STRONG DYNAMICS OVER THE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW EXACTLY THE EVENT
UNFOLDS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
YET ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS A 15%
DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY OF 65 AND (EQUIVALENT
TO A SLIGHT RISK, OR LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND A 30% SEVERE WEATHER
RISK EAST OF ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 (EQUIVALENT TO AN
ENHANCED RISK, OR A LEVEL 3 OF 5). STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS ON THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS, OVERRIDING A STALLED BOUNDARY
BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN SETUP ALIGNS
CLOSELY TO THE MADDOX HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE DAYS IN A ROW OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, DESPITE
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY
BE A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT INTO LATE WEEK. LIKEWISE TO THE
MID-WEEK ACTIVITY, THERE ARE MANY REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HYDROLOGY PARTNERS NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS SETUP, AS IT POSES THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, CONVECTION HAS CLEARED TO THE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
BUT SOME OF THE CAMS ARE BRINGING BACK SOME STRATUS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MESOSCALE...PEREZ
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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