182
FXUS63 KSGF 110646
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANYTIME DURING
THIS PERIOD. HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH,
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED BRINGS A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
- RELATIVELY DRIER WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OZARKS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR WHERE
STORMS WERE ONGOING. THIS WAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI.
THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AXIS OF SLOW- MOVING AND LOCALLY TRAINING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST FROM PITTSBURG,
KS TO THE EAST GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
MLCAPE VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE NOTED BETWEEN
1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. IN ADDITION, 30 TO 40 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS AVAILABLE WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THE MORNING AS STORMS GENERALLY MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WITH GOOD DCAPE AS WELL, AS THE
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS.
THANKS TO THE HIGH PW'S, RAINFALL RATES FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES/HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED CELLS. WHERE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGIONS, AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. SHORT TERM MODELS/CAMS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION,
THOUGH THE NAM NEST AND HRRR DID SHOW SOME INDICATION OF THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY.
AS A RESULT OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOME AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
ESPECIALLY THE CELL- TRAINING CONCERNS. THIS PROMPTED THE
CONTINUATION AND SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS OR
LINGER ALONG THE STATE LINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORMS TO IMPACT SOME
LOCATIONS INTO THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ONCE THE FRONT MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH MILD AND AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE DOES RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WHICH MAY BRING SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRINGS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, EDGING TOWARDS
LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY TO
VISIBILITIES WHERE RAIN OCCURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
077>083-088>092-094-097-098-106.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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