157
FXUS63 KSGF 130542
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
COLDEST TIME PERIOD IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF -8F TO 5F (COLDEST OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI).
- DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH A WARM-UP STARTING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S TONIGHT UNDER THE CLOUDLESS SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AND A WARMER AIR MASS WILL START TO ADVECT BACK TO THE NORTH,
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
30S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS A HEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHICH COULD
ALLOW A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S WHERE MORE SUN CAN OCCUR
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE LONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WHICH WILL BE PATCHY AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE, MUCH OF ANY DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, BUT THERE
COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO OR BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK BEFORE THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ENDS AS THE DRIER
AIR MASS MOVES IN. THIS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LOW CHANCES
(AROUND 5%) ACROSS THE AREA.
THE COLDER AIR MASS AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 3 TO -7. HIGHS WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS.
A MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING
TREND TO OCCUR AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH DIGS. SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA, AND OTHERS
BRING IT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (20-30% MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65) TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S)
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NORTHERN TRACK WILL LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES
AS A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH O THE AREA, AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
AN INVERSION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH IT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS AT KSGF THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH IFR
EXPANDING TO KJLN AND KBBG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT FOG
WILL ALSO PERSIST AT KBBG AND KJLN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE WILL
BE AT KSGF AND KJLN, WITH LOW POTENTIAL AT KBBG THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATING THIS
RISK AND POSSIBLY AMENDING TAFS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TITUS
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