455
FXUS63 KSGF 311854
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOW 100S. MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. MINIMAL
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR AN EARLY ONSET TO
THE FALL FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (70-80%
CHANCE) AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
AFTER ANOTHER HOT, DRY AFTER WRAPS UP, TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE QUITE REPETITIVE WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S (LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
AFTERNOON TD > 70 IS GENERALLY 0-5%), WHICH IS A DRIER TREND
THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST DEW
POINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE TOO HIGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DOWN HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR THE DRY
BULB TEMPERATURE. THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THE AREA WILL SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105, AND SOME AREAS MAY BARELY SEE 100.
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL IT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, BUT LREF ONLY HAS AROUND
50% PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDEX ABOVE 100, SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
EXTEND IT.
LOOKING LONGER TERM, ENSEMBLE DATA AND CPC FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NOTABLY, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES AROUND +10-15F CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AS DO
NEGATIVE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF < 0.1" THROUGH THIS WEEK ARE GENERALLY
89-100% AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK THEY SHOW AROUND 50% (BUT 70-80%
CHANCE OF < 0.5"). IN OTHER WORDS, HOT AND DRY WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST, RESULTING IN INCREASED DROUGHT AND
WILDFIRE RISKS WITH TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
SEPTEMBER 6:
KJLN: 101/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (KSGF ONLY):
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 74/2011
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 75/1913
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 76/1998
SEPTEMBER 6:
KSGF: 76/1925
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
CLIMATE...TITUS/CAMDEN
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