300
FXUS63 KSGF 011032
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING, MAINLY REMAINING NORTH OF I-44.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND A SLIGHT (2 OUT 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WEST OF I-49 TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EAST OF I-49. THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS ROUND ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF UNCAPPED MUCAPE. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BUT ARE WEAKENING
AS THEY MOVE EAST AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE
FURTHER TO THE EAST. A STRONGER STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL THE RISK IS DECREASING WITH THE
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE STORMS HAVE LINED UP FROM WEST TO
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE STORMS TRACKING OVER THE
SAME LOCATION. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WHERE
TRAINING OF STORMS ARE OCCURRING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF I-44 CLOSER TO THE FRONT AS A CAP IS IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI CURRENTLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THE CAP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL START TO WEAKEN BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL STILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST AREA, SO MOST STORMS WILL BE NON SEVERE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS/INTO THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND WILL PUSH THE FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BACK TO THE NORTH. A DRY LINE WILL PUSH
ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST OF
THE DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL EXTEND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TOO, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE LESS THAN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE DRY LINE. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND COULD CLIP AREAS WEST OF I-49 THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOP, AND COULD LEAD TO A LOW TORNADO RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND COULD PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN TO
THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST. THE
STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THETA-E DIFFERENCE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, SO THIS COULD
LIMIT A STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPING AND THEREFORE A LINE OF
STORMS MAY BE LESS LIKELY AS THE FRONT WILL STALL AND NOT KEEP
UP WITH THE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CLUSTER IN NATURE
AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN RISK WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
TONIGHT. IF A COLD POOL AND LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE A LOW SPIN UP TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SURGES TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THE STORMS WEAKEN AS THE MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THEY MOVE OUT OF
THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.
STORMS COULD BE ON GOING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO IOWA ON
THURSDAY AND WILL PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL START TO
STALL. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65
IF NOT EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
AND BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THEN.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AS COULD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG LIFT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FAST MOVING FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54 THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI THEN TO THE EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
OUTSIDE THE STORMS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT REMAINING GUSTY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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