733
FXUS63 KSGF 160542
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (50-65%) OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH STRONGEST JET ENERGY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOME EMBEDDED
UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WAS
LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WAS AIDING IN DEVELOPING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER WE HAVE A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CREPT INTO THE LOW
80S WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE OCCURRED BUT HAVE HELD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY: WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT. CAMS DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN MO AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WE'VE INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMNANT
MCS ACTIVITY AND ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA BY 00Z. WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL MO MAY STILL POSE
A WIND RISK UP TO 60 MPH.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND HAVE DROPPED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TO BE DRY
OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST DEEPENS AND THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR WESTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWING NEARLY 100%
CHANCE OF WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BOTH DAYS.
THE WESTERN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP OVER SOUTHWEST
KS INTO NORTHWEST MO DURING THE DAY, BUT THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE
SEVERE RISK OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PW
VALUES INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE IN THE 1.4" TO 1.5" RANGE. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BRING HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD THEN PUSH ALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL FLIRT WITH SOME RECORD WARMEST LOWS
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ALSO RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE CURRENT RECORDS IN
THESE CATEGORIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
LLWS IS A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 15-20 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT JLN TODAY AND UP TO 25
KTS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE
TAF SITES. SCATTERED CEILINGS AROUND 20 KFT TONIGHT, LOWERING TO
10-15 KFT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 12Z AT SGF AND EAST AS
THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY, THEN BECOMING SKC AFTER 18Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
KJLN: 72/1941
KUNO: 55/1998
KVIH: 65/2023
MAY 16:0
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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