380
FXUS63 KSGF 251834
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER THIS WEEKEND.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES, WITH SOME AREAS STAYING DRY.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%
CHANCE) LOOKS TO OCCUR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY VERY LOW, BUT WILL NEED
MONITORING. CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST COAST, A TROUGH OUT WEST
AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA IS LIKELY PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 12Z
KSGF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A DRY LAYER ABOUT 800-925MB. A BROKEN
CUMULUS DECK CONTINUES AGAIN TODAY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 HOWEVER
TEMPS ARE ALREADY WARMER OVER THERE THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT, CREATING VERY COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS.
SEASONABLE TEMPS/LOW RAIN CHANCES: MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THIS EVENING WITH AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT, NOSING UP INTO
NEBRASKA AND IOWA, WHICH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
OCCUR. THE LLJ WILL VEER SOME BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. AT THIS TIME, RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY
ARE LOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO KANSAS. TEMPS LOOK
SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO SET
UP A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND WILL ALLOW
FOR AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM IN KANSAS
AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST HREF SHOWS MEAN MU CAPE APPROACHING 1000J/KG ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AFTER 10PM WITH THE 1-HR THUNDER PROBS AT
30-60% IN THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, LASTING TO SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING. THIS
APPEARS TO BE OUR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
ITS MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. MEAN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 0.50INCH. CURRENTLY THE NBM HAS
HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE ROLLA AREA TO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
GRADIENT WILL BE SHARPER DEPENDING ON HOW LONG MORNING
CLOUDS/RAIN HOLDS ON AND TEMP ADJUSTMENTS MADE NEED TO BE MADE.
MID WEEK SYSTEM: ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME
FRAME NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE RAIN CHANCES
(CURRENTLY 50-70%) HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH ARE STILL EVIDENT (EITHER A
PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED TROUGH OR A CLOSED OFF LOW). ALOT OF THIS
IS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE HAS THIS CURVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE BAJA AND THEN GETTING ABSORBED INTO OUR SYSTEM. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN IT WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
WITH THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. THE
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES DELAYED MORE TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY. LATEST CPC/WPC OUTLOOKS DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE ONGOING/WORSENING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME BRIEF 800FT CEILINGS AT BBG THIS MORNING
ARE LIFTING WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY
AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND 10KFT OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR
EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER AT JLN AND SGF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KTS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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