120
FXUS63 KSGF 262317
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES (70-85%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF I-44.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AFTER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
MARCH. THERE IS A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, FLOODING, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 4-11).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY SPLIT
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. AREAS OF GREATER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ARE LINED UP WITH THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
ONE STRETCHES FROM OREGON DOWN INTO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA, AND THE
OTHER STRETCHES FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS PUTS THE OZARKS UNDER RELATIVELY WEAKER FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
RATHER LIGHT AS A MILD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN BEHIND AN
EXITING "COLD FRONT".
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY:
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXACTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT, AS THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM KEEPS THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO
OUR NORTH. ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO
REACH THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED
TO THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MID- AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY, THOUGH NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS THEY
FEED WARMER AIR INTO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. RESULTING WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
SINCE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BE TROUGHED
DOWN TO THE GULF, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
ONLY SLOWLY ADVECT MARGINAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S, AFTERNOON RHS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE 20-25% RANGE FRIDAY AND 25-35% RANGE SATURDAY. THE
REFS, WHICH HAS VERIFIED RATHER NICELY FOR THE PAST FEW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVENTS, GIVES A 10-30% CHANCE OF LOCALIZED
AREAS SEEING RH VALUES BELOW 20%. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE TRUE
ALONG ANY HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN ASPECTS.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE DANGER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
FASTER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CYCLONE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18-25 MPH
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A LOW <15% CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 20 MPH IN BOURBON AND VERNON COUNTIES. THEREFORE,
NO RED FLAG HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT FIRE SPREAD
DANGER WILL STILL BE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
PARAMETERS.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE TAME WITH SOMEWHAT THE SAME WIND
SPEED LAYOUT, BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES IN THE 25-35% RANGE
AS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE SLOWLY GETS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
70-85% PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY, POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX:
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. CLUSTER MEANS FOR THE
FREEZING LINE GENERALLY PUT IT AROUND THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR OR
A BIT SOUTH. THEREFORE, LOWS RANGING FROM JUST BELOW 30 F NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54, TO THE MID-40S ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER
ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWER 40S TO
LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST AS HIGHS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. BASED ON DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
OUTPUT, THE FORCING FOR THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO COME FROM THE
MIDDLE/LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER FLAT. THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAKE OR BREAK THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA.
BASED ON CLUSTER ANALYSIS, SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE
NORTHERN CONUS WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WOULD FORCE COLDER
AIR FURTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION DROPPING DOWN TO THE I-44 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT WOULD KEEP COLDER AIR NORTHWARD AND BRING MOSTLY
RAIN TO THE AREA.
ANALYSIS OF GFS/EURO DETERMINISTICS SHOW THESE TWO SCENARIOS
RATHER WELL. THE GFS DEPICTS A SOUTHERLY BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM REACHING INTO THE OZARKS, RESULTING IN KEEPING THE
FREEZING LINE FURTHER SOUTH IN OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE EURO, HOWEVER, DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE, RESULTING IN A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET, LEADING TO ADVECTION OF THE FREEZING
LINE NORTH OF THE CWA, PRODUCING ALL RAIN. IN AN ENSEMBLE SPACE,
30% OF MODELS DEPICT THE WINTER PRECIPITATION REACHING DOWN TO
I-44, WHILE 19% OF MODELS DEPICT ALL RAIN. 51% OF MODELS SHOW
SOMETHING IN BETWEEN WITH A WINTRY MIX LINING UP SOMEWHERE ALONG
HIGHWAY 54.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE PATTERN OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM COMPRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL PRESENCE OF FREEZING
RAIN AND/OR SLEET ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE AS A WARM NOSE
WOULD LIKELY BE PRESENT ATOP THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. WHERE EXACTLY THIS TRANSITION ZONE SETS UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. ANY SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THIS
ZONE, WHICH HAS A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
IN TERMS OF TIMING, LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD START FILLING IN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH PEAK COVERAGE
AND RATES OCCURING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EXITING
BY MONDAY MORNING.
ACTIVE PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND:
AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING, THE ENSEMBLES AGREE
ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. TAKING A LOOK AT PANELS OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOW
A NOT VERY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN, BUT RATHER MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BACKGROUND FLOW. THIS TYPE OF
SETUP WOULD ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF WARM/MOIST AIR BUILDING
INTO THE REGION, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIFT TAPPING INTO SAID
AIR MASS. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH POPS GENERALLY AT 40-70%
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, THE SPC MENTIONS OUR REGION
(AMONG A VARIETY OF SURROUNDING REGIONS) FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL VERY MUCH DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES, BUT
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CHANCE IN OR NEAR OUR REGION.
THIS ALSO GOES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BACK-TO-BACK.
EXTENDED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD ACTIVE/WET PATTERN CONTINUING:
FOR THE MARCH 5-11 PERIOD, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SUBSEQUENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY
INCREASE AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALLOWS FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO
CONTINUOUSLY BUILD UP INSTABILITY. THE WPC HAS OUR AREA UNDER A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN MARCH 6TH AND 10TH, WITH A
HIGH RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-44 FOR BETWEEN
MARCH 6TH AND 9TH. FURTHERMORE, THEY OUTLINE SOUTHEAST OF I-44
IN A "FLOODING POSSIBLE" AREA MARCH 6-12. AND, THERE IS 50-70%
CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MARCH 5TH AND
11TH. THE HYBRID AI AND DYNAMICAL GEFS ENSEMBLE PLACES THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR. THAT SAID, BASED ON THE QPF FOOTPRINT, THIS COULD
SHIFT AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OR AS FAR WEST AS
CENTRAL KS/OK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NSSL ML GUIDANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (BOTH
FROM THE EPS AND GEFS) INCREASES CHANCES IN THE MARCH 6TH
THROUGH 9TH TIMEFRAME. THAT SAID, THESE CHANCES ARE BROAD AN
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA,
SO EXACT LOCATIONS ARE STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. THIS IS MAINLY
HEADS UP THAT THE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OVER MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 10
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY AND GUST UP TO
20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...SORIA
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