225  
FXUS63 KSGF 231017  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
517 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF  
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY  
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK  
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING VERTICALLY STACKED IN NATURE.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT TODAY  
ACROSS THE OZARKS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN INITIAL BAND OF  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION SPREADING INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AROUND SUNRISE. THIS  
SHOULD REPRESENT THE FIRST APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE  
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE  
SEVERAL SLUGS OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH  
THE REGION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THAT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  
THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS SLOWLY  
SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE MAY GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FOR ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A TOUGH CALL WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER  
AND THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT, THERE IS A  
WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. WE HAVE GONE RIGHT AT, OR  
JUST BELOW THE MEAN OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WOULD YIELD  
TEMPERATURES HANGING BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LESS  
PRECIPITATION AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN WOULD RESULT IN MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 60S.  
 
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP WILL NOT CHANGE  
ALL THAT MUCH WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE AND SEVERAL  
LOBES OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION SLIDING THROUGH. SCATTERED TO  
PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE  
THEREFORE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP DUE TO A  
STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND AND CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN  
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OZARKS DURING  
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS  
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO OPEN UP  
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND THE APPROACH OF THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE CONCENTRATED FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF  
THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  
 
COOLING MID-LEVELS AND MODEST GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN  
(SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 50S) SHOULD  
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 800-1100 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS  
LONG AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISN'T TOO LARGE IN THE MORNING.  
MEANWHILE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM  
STRUCTURES WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE.  
 
WE MAY THEREFORE SEE A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOW-END  
SEVERE HAIL (UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS). THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE  
TRUE IF THE NAM AND GFS ARE CORRECT WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES  
APPROACH 8 C/KM. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS  
STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN THE  
LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
DESPITE THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, TEMPERATURES ON  
SUNDAY LOOK QUITE MILD WITH BRISK SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.  
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS  
MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND THE TIMING OF  
THAT FRONT.  
 
THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN END  
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE MAY THEN PERSIST  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE  
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE  
WEEK, A BIG WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS  
RETURN. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S.  
 
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AS UPPER LEVEL  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. GLOBAL MODELS BRING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS  
STORM SYSTEM OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,  
HOWEVER THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM STRENGTH AND  
STRUCTURE. REGARDLESS, IT APPEARS THAT PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND CONTINUING TO END THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
MILD AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP FROM WEST  
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. VFR CAN BE EXPECTED  
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER BRIEF STINTS OF MVFR CAN BE  
EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS.  
 
THE SAME SCENARIO WILL THEN BE IN PLAY FOR TONIGHT WITH MVFR  
EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IS MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AS  
WE GET INTO LATE TONIGHT.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL  
BECOME GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AROUND SPRINGFIELD. GUSTS APPROACHING  
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN  
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN  
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN  
 
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