642  
FXUS63 KSGF 200456  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1156 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018  
   
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE OZARK REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL  
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
THEY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THEY ARE DRIVEN BY  
THE DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL  
DIP INTO THE LOW 70S. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PLAY A KEY  
ROLE IN ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING  
WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 20-30 MPH. EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE OZARKS  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICIES NEAR 100 IN MANY LOCATIONS.  
THIS FLOW BRINGS THE RETURN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
THE MAIN STORYLINE LOOKING AHEAD WILL BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND  
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG LOW KICKS OUT OF  
THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CURRENT MODEL  
TRENDS SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE OZARK REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO  
FRIDAY EVENING. THE MOST RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT  
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AR, WITH RAIN  
CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  
THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY, YET NO SEVERE WEATHER  
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE, THE CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG  
THE AR/MO BORDER. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY PRESENT  
SATURDAY-SUNDAY THERE WILL BE LITTLE RISK FOR THUNDER OR SEVERE  
WEATHER. GENERALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
0.25-0.75 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL  
ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE  
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.  
 
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES  
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE U.S., EJECTING A SERIES OF WEAK  
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY HELP AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY. LIKEWISE, THIS TROUGH WILL BE  
RESPONSIBLE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE  
TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS NOTED BY THE EXTENDED CIPS  
ANALOG GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2018  
 
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE WILL INCREASE  
BY MID TO LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 20  
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KJLN.  
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY WITH  
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF  
THE TERMINALS. THE GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND  
SUNSET.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN/PEREZ  
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN/PEREZ  
AVIATION...RABERDING  
 
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