458
FXUS63 KSGF 252326
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 15-55% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10" OR LESS. MANY
LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN DRY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST
20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS LOW TO MID
70S.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES (50-80%) RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:
OVERCAST SKIES ARE HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS JUST BREAKING INTO THE 60S
IN MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI, CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
850MB WINDS ADVECTING ADDITIONAL JUICE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL NOT IMPROVE VERY MUCH, ONLY
REACHING TO ~0.95" AT MOST TONIGHT (COMPARED TO ~0.53" AT 12Z
THIS MORNING). SO EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE 40-55% IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI TONIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH TONIGHT'S SHOWERS.
MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, ONLY HAVE A
15-40% CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, SO RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL TO NONE FOR MOST TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, BUT GUSTS ONLY UP TO 25MPH
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS.
THURSDAY:
THURSDAY MAY SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON AND LEAVE THE REGION WITH A PLEASANT,
SPRING-LIKE DAY. HIGHS IN CLOUDIER AREAS TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY
65 WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S, BUT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 (WHERE
SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT IN THE MORNING) WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.
FRIDAY:
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY PLEASANT TO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE
AMBIANCE, AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITHOUT
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INCREASES WILL BRING AFTERNOON RHS DOWN TO
25-30%, SO AREAS THAT SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH COULD SEE
INCREASED FIRE RISK.
SATURDAY:
EVEN WARMER THAN FRIDAY, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE
20-25 MPH RANGE RAISE CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THOUGH CERTAINTY ISN'T QUITE
AS HIGH IN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ON SATURDAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN CONSIDERABLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY IS QUITE HIGH, THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD BETWEEN NBM
MEMBERS ON JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST
NORTH OF HWY 54, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED MOST BY
THE TIMING OF THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KICK OFF
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WHERE MORE APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY MATERIALIZE. WHILE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVE PATTERN, TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POTENTIAL ROUND(S) OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE
STORMS, A FEW THINGS STAND OUT AS MORE INTERESTING/POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL THAN OTHERS:
1. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TO 25-50% SATURDAY NIGHT, PEAKING AT
60-80% SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND REMAIN
ABOVE 20% THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2. COLDER AIR (20+ DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY) WILL COME SURGING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND IF
TIMING ALIGNS PROPERLY WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE, THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING PRECIP MIXING IN FOR AREAS NORTH OF HWY 54 EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S
OVERNIGHT.
3. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN REBOUNDING POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN A WARMING TREND
BEGINNING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
4. LREF MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH NEXT WEEK'S ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
HIGH CIRRUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SUBSET OF MODELS THAT SUGGEST EVEN
LOWERED CEILINGS TO DEVELOP WITH SATURATION TO OCCUR UNDER A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION...PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. CONFIDENCE
IS LACKING TO INTRODUCE IFR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AT THIS
TIME THOUGH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING AVIATION INTERESTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THESE LOWERED CEILINGS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...RUNNELS
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