568  
FXUS63 KSGF 201109  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
509 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS  
MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10MPH WERE CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS  
FROM -5 TO 10F. THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXISTED ACROSS MAINLY THE  
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SOME CLOUD COVER  
AND ACTUALLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE COMING OFF OF STOCKTON LAKE  
AND AFFECTING SGF.  
 
SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST WITH COLDEST READINGS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. WENT A FEW  
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE MORE  
SNOW COVER EXISTS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL  
BE SLIDING OVER ILLINOIS AND A 300MB JET IS FORECAST TO  
STRENGTHEN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI GETTING INTO THE  
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET. FRONTOGENESIS PLOTS FROM THE  
RAP SHOWS A 700MB FN ZONE IN A NARROW BAND THAT CLIPS MILLER,  
MARIES, PHELPS AND DENT COUNTIES. IT IS ALSO SPITTING OUT A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THIS POINT WILL PUT  
FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THIS  
AREA, HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THAT FN BAND SETS UP  
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, AS THIS WAS REQUIRE HIGHER POPS AND PERHAPS A  
DUSTING OF SNOW.  
 
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE  
HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS  
THE ROCKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US  
ON MONDAY, HOWEVER OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING.  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE  
IN THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME.  
 
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL  
TRACK FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TUESDAY WITH A  
TRAILING FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE  
A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM  
THEREFORE QPF AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND THERE MAY BE MORE  
DRIZZLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH  
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THIS TIME,  
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF PRECIP  
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S  
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL MOVE  
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH A DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS PUNCHING  
IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD AIR WILL GET  
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE CANT RULE OUT SOME  
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT WINTER MIX FOR A FEW HOURS  
TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL JUST  
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.  
 
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FURTHER DOWN  
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY THE WEEKEND.  
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WELL HOWEVER  
ALL HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP JUST AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH SOME  
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS  
WILL START OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN SWITCHING TO THE EAST  
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page