141
FXUS63 KSGF 221735
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
KEY MESSAGES:
1. WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY.
2. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY.
3. GUSTY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
4. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES.
5. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PUSHING EASTWARD,
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE A
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST LATER TODAY, A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO TONIGHT,
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS KS AND INTO WESTERN MO, AS
FAVORABLE LIFT FROM THE LLJ WILL BE PRESENT.THE CURRENT SPC DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
SATURDAY:
AFTER THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM RISK, HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE LLJ
CONTINUING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, PROMOTING FURTHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT:
A DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS SHOW US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH
REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX (EFI) AND SHIFT OF TAILS SHOW THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO BE MORE NORTH OF THE REGION IN NORTHERN MISSOURI, BUT
OTHER MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SPC'S CURRENT OUTLOOK SHOWS AN ENHANCED
RISK OVER MOST OF THE CWA, WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. AS
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME OUT AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
LOCATION/SEVERITY, UPDATES WILL BE MADE.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING MOST OF MONDAY TO BE QUIET. THIS WILL BE
SHORTLIVED, HOWEVER, AS WINDS SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT,
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THE WPC
CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOL (WCAT) SHOWS INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT WAVE, BUT ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SCATTERED
STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHWARTZ
LONG TERM...SCHWARTZ
AVIATION...WISE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page