031
FXUS63 KSGF 032332
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NORTH
OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE QUARTERS
BEING THE MAIN RISK.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS THE MAIN RISK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN WITH HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS THE MAIN RISKS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN RISKS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING WHERE LOCATIONS RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH POLAR JET REMAINING ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACTIVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE
NEXT LARGE SCALE WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER COLORADO WITH WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. THE UPPER WAVE WAS
HELPING TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
OKLAHOMA WITH THE FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA
HAS CLEARED OUT THE EARLIER STRATUS/FOG AND ALSO BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA, ALL BUT
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CAPPED. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH TO
THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE FRONT.
TONIGHT: MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH UPPER
40S ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY: AS WE GET CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SOME MARGINAL HAIL
RISK DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. COULD START TO
SEE SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN ADDED
DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL AND A LIMITED TORNADO RISK. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, BUT WITH RECENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SAME AREA MAY HOWEVER RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE
SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER IT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT THEN THIS RISK SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA. THE BEST SURFACE BASED CAPE
AND SHEAR COMBO ARE LOCATED OVER OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON FRIDAY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE THERE AT THIS TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN COMBINATION WITH THE STORMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK. SEE
HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SWITCH THE WINDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT JLN AND SGF THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST AT SGF IN THE MORNING. BBG SHOULD STAY SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CEILINGS DROP INTO MVFR.
THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
STORM OVERNIGHT AT JLN AND SGF. A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL AFFECT ALL THE
SITES AND COULD PERSIST OFF AND ON MOST OF THE DAY. CEILINGS
WILL ALSO MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR WITH EVEN IFR AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS MAY BE
ERRATIC TOMORROW IN ANY STORMS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THE AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED MORE THAN 1" OF RAINFALL THIS
PAST WEEK, IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS ACROSS THE AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY SOILS CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS
ABNORMALLY DRY (NORTH) TO SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT (SOUTH)
AFFECTING THE REGION. USGS STREAMGAGES INDICATE STREAMFLOW IS
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MANY AREA
WATERWAYS. WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PREVAILING, OFFICIAL
FORECASTS FOR OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS DO NOT INDICATE FLOODING
OCCURING. KEEP IN MIND, OFFICIAL FORECASTS ONLY UTILIZE 24-48
HOURS OF QPF SO ANY RAINFALL FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME WINDOW
WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL RIVER FORECASTS.
LOOKING AT LONGER RANGE (10 DAY), PROBABILISTIC HEFS
FORECASTS FOR OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
(50TH PERCENTILE) INDICATES FLOWS INCREASING, HOWEVER, NONE ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. IF MORE EXTREME QPF AMOUNTS
MATERIALIZE THE 10% CHANCE FLOW SCENARIOS DO INDICATE A NUMBER OF
RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. THE MOST RECENT FLOOD
HAZARD OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE FOR FLASH,
URBAN, AND RIVER FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN ON WED AND FRI/SAT ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM
1.5"-2" (1 HOUR) TO 2.5"- 3" (6 HOUR). IF THESE THRESHOLDS ARE
EXCEEDED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. ALTHOUGH, AT THIS
TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING WILL OCCUR, STAY TUNED AS THESE EVENTS UNFOLD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
HYDROLOGY...00
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