140
FXUS63 KSGF 122311
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63 THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
REST OF TODAY: WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA PUSH SOUTH WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR 1 INCH
HAIL AND LOCALIZED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.
FOR TONIGHT: MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD THE IDEA OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH LINGERING CONVECTION THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
DAYTIME SUNDAY.
THREATS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY: MAINLY LOCALIZED 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING ON LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 3-4 INCHES (MAINLY FROM SE KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI).
THREAT THE REST OF SUNDAY: HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF
MORNING STORMS. MODELS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY IN HOW THIS WILL
UNFOLD, BUT GENERALLY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL MO TO THE 90S TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN A TIGHT
CAPE GRADIENT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2,000-3,000
J/KG AND 20-30 KTS OF SHEAR. WHILE NO SPC OUTLOOK EXISTS
CURRENTLY, LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, A SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL BE MARKED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS AN UPPER HIGH TO OUR SE CONTINUES TO BUILD OUR DIRECTION.
LOOK FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105 POSSIBLE. FRIDAY MAY SEE COOLER CONDITIONS,
BUT MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON CONDITIONS BY LATE WEEK SO
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW.
THERE WILL BE SOME 15-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AT TIMES, BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN EASTERN KANSAS IS MOVING INTO
MISSOURI AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY DO, BUT HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A STALLED COLD FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE REGION.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...DIDIO
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