967
FXUS63 KSGF 132309
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
- A FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 10 PM UNTIL 7 PM
THURSDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
- PATTERN CHANGE INCOMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY UP TO 35 MPH. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE OUR PATTERN
CHANGE ARRIVES. THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING US SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-44 STARTING TONIGHT AT 10 PM AND
CONTINUING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE A TROPICAL TYPE OF AIRMASS
COMING IN, WHICH MEANS THESE SHOWERS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AND CAN DROP A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF CONVECTION TRAINS OVER THE
SAME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. BE MINDFUL OF
FLOODING AT NIGHT AND DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS
ESPECIALLY LOW-WATER CROSSINGS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
INTERMITTENT AND THERE WILL BE BREAKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF I-44 CLOSER TOWARDS THE FRONT.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY
LATE EVENING WITH A SMALL AREA OF A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) BEING
INTRODUCED BY SPC OVER FAR SW MO. MAIN THREATS ARE STILL 60 MPH
WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT OVER FAR SW MO IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS DUE
TO THE SURFACE LOW MOVING UP FROM NE OK AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUPER-CELLULAR ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE INTO A LINE SEGMENT AS THEY PUSH THROUGH THE SW
PORTION OF OUR AREA. IN THIS IS WHERE THE LOW-END TORNADO THREAT
LIES. ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, IT'S JUST IF THEY CAN ALIGN PERFECTLY TO
PRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, BUT DON'T ASSUME THAT EVERY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEVERE TOMORROW, BECAUSE THEY MORE THAN
LIKELY WILL NOT BE. THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
INABILITY FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AT AT LEAST 20 MPH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND WE WILL FEEL THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT.
WINDS FLIP OUT OF THE NORTH AND WE'LL FEEL A BRISK GUSTY WIND
NEAR 35 MPH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START FRIDAY AND IT'LL
FEEL CHILLY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. CLOUDS CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA MAKING IT TRULY FEEL
LIKE FALL.
THESE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A CHANCE FOR OUR FIRST FROST POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN A FEW PLACES. HIGHS STICK
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT START TIMES ARE UNCERTAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AFTER
09Z, LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH
PREVAILING TSRA GROUPS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF IFR CEILINGS/VIS IN THE
HEAVIER STORMS. RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START OUT SOUTHERLY WITH A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
STORMS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
MID DAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS THEN FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FROM SGF AND POINTS WEST TOWARDS JLN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088-089.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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