964
FXUS63 KSGF 162253
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
- ENHANCED (3 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL, 70-80 MPH
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK IS ACROSS
CENTRAL MO. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY SUPPORT FLASH
FLOODING.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH, AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGHLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY FURTHER NORTH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-SEVERE. THE ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO BY THIS EVENING.
THIS CAN BE GLEANED FROM DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70. MEANWHILE, SBCAPE PUSHES TOWARDS 1500-2000 J/KG IN
THE VICINITY OF UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS.
THIS SETUP MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
(40-60% CHANCES), POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. FORCING
REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR, AND AS A RESULT GIVES US REDUCED
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
NONETHELESS, IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LARGE UP TO GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORM SPLITS MAY SUPPORT A LEFT-
MOVER, FURTHER SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS POTENTIAL
IS CAPTURED WITH THE LATEST SPC MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY OUTSIDE
OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO, GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
65 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE, WITH CHANGES ON
HORIZON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WEDNESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TRANSLATE THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN NE AND IA. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH IN RESPONSE TO SUFFICIENT MIXING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXCEEDING 45 MPH WIND GUSTS, WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 20-40%. FOR THIS REASON, WIND HEADLINES ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S AS
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SUGGESTING THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44, ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS IS CAPTURED WITH THE LATEST
SPC SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) SEVERE RISK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
3000+ J/KG) IN THE VICINITY OF 50-60 KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SW TO NE ORIENTED FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
EVENING/NIGHT. ALL HAZARDS REMAINS IN PLAY, PARTICULARLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(7.5-8.0 C/KM) AND AMPLE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE AS SEEN IN LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
AROUND 12 TO 16 IN THIS AREA SUGGEST HAIL SIZE TO PUSH TOWARDS
TENNIS TO BASEBALL, ESPECIALLY IF CELLS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE IN NATURE. MEANWHILE, SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS COULD
OCCUR WITHIN THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THETA-E DIFFERENCES APPROACH
25 TO 30 K WITH DCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THERE IS STILL
SOME REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IF SUPERCELLS GROW UPSCALE INTO A
LINE AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS, AND THUS THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. NONETHELESS, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. AS FOR TORNADOES, STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT, AND RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE. EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INGESTION OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY WITH SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AS A RESULT, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
THIS TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT IN CENTRAL MO, AND
DIMINISH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.
LARGE SCALE ASSENT BECOMES WEAKER INTO THE EVENING, AND THUS THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 44 AND SOUTH. THIS WELL CAPTURED IN
THE LATEST TRENDS OF CAMS.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES ARE FORECAST GIVEN PWATS OF 1.7-2.1 INCHES. THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE (SATURATED SOILS AND ELEVATED
STREAMFLOWS) WILL SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING
OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WPC DEPICTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH A
SLIGHT (2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN INTO THURSDAY AS POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AS
THE FRONT STALLS INTO NORTHERN AR.
THURSDAY:
WITH THE FRONTAL SLOWLY MEANDERING THROUGH SOUTHERN MO INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING INTO NORTHERN AR, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A A SLIGHT (2 OF 4)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK IS STATIONED ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
LIKEWISE TO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT'S THREAT, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44
REMAINS MINIMAL ON THURSDAY. OVERALL, COOLER ON THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AS WE TURN THE PAGE INTO FRIDAY, A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED WITH A DRIER FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS
BREAK IN THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF MCSS,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED
SEVERE AND/OR FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY EACH SYSTEM'S PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL NEED BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW CHANCES (PROB30 GROUP) FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AT THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, WINDS OUT OF
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BEFORE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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