070  
FXUS63 KSGF 021040  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
540 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
 
3. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
   
SHORT TERM  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023  
 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SO FAR HAVE YIELDED QUIET CONDITIONS, WITH  
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, AND  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.  
 
THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE TODAY, WITH AN  
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BRINGING WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO A DESTABILIZED  
ATMOSPHERE. COVERAGE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WE'VE  
EXPERIENCED IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, HOWEVER STILL LOOKING AT CHANCES  
REMAINING IN THE 30-40% RANGE, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND  
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ELSEWHERE, POPS ARE AROUND 20%.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE TREND OF PREVIOUS NIGHTS, WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
   
LONG TERM  
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS  
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUOUS ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAN EXPECT DAILY HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
SHORTWAVES EJECTING EASTWARD FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE  
HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (30-60%) AND  
COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF HWY 65. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR WIDESPREAD  
FLOODING IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR  
TWO BRINGING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WOULD  
BRING DRIER WEATHER, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES EAST OF THE  
TAF SITES, AND THE LOWER SPATIAL CONFIDENCE AT THE SITES, DECIDED  
AGAINST MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD  
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT BEFORE TAKING A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST  
DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MELTO  
LONG TERM...MELTO  
AVIATION...MELTO  
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