551
FXUS63 KSGF 081701
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR TODAY LEADING TO ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-44 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
- INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLOODING FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY:
- IMPACTS: ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER.
- DETAILS: AFTER RH VALUES OF 25-35% WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-40 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS AND WORST FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-44 AND WEST OF HWY 65.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- MESSAGING: ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHIC.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIXING INTO DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR THE COMBO
OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. FUELS ARE THE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND ONGOING GREENUP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL:
- IMPACTS: TYPICAL SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS ARE POSSIBLE.
- DETAILS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FRIDAY, THEN THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN BECOMING GENERALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER SCALE DETAILS REQUIRED TO HAVE A
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF SEVERE CHANCES, TIMING, THREATS, ETC
IS LOW.
- MESSAGING: CONTINUED SEVERE/FLOODING GRAPHICS.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE
WITH A FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MAINLY NON-SEVEREL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH MLCAPE OF
1,000-1,500 J/KG AND 20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, LEADING
TO A 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND THREAT. THE PATTERN BECOMES
PRONOUNCED IN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST,
RESULTING IN INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW. WHILE THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME, THE PATTERN FAVORS CAPE/SHEAR COMBOS WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND FRONTS ALSO IN PLAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS WELL
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC OUTLOOKS AND MODEL AI/ML SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. STAY TUNED FOR LATER UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD WITH SURFACE
GUSTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. WE SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS TOWARDS 00-01Z WITH A STEADY
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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