681
FXUS63 KSGF 281140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING AS EARLY AS 10 AM TO
12 PM, LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING (50-70% CHANCE). FOLLOWING
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44.
LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS TO TENNIS BALLS IS THE MAIN HAZARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DUE TO CHANCES OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY REPEATED RAINFALLS OR TRAINING OF
STORMS.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND ONWARD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
AFTER QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF SEVERE WEATHER, SKIES ARE FINALLY
CLEAR AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA -- FOR NOW AT LEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- AND
UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CO/NORTH
NM. RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY IS DEPICTING MODERATE 700 MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS THE WAVE
BEGINS FORCING A LEE SURFACE LOW IN THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.
AS THESE FEATURES PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WAA REGIME. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED 50-70%
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BASICALLY, THE WEATHER IS SAYING "I
AIN'T HEAR NO BELL".
SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT TODAY:
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SOURCED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
ALREADY BRINGING AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) OF 8-8.5 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE BELOW THESE LAPSE RATES, INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF UNCAPPED MUCAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ACCORDING
TO THE RAP AND HREF MEAN. ADDITIONALLY, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ACT TO BRING QUITE A LOT OF SHEAR TO THE AREA WITH
EFFECTIVE 0-6 KM DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60+ KTS. THUS, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS PROGGED TO SETUP ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WAA INCREASING AND THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, LIFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITHIN THE
ZONE OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 10 AM TO
12 PM WHICH IS WHEN THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS PROGGED TO REACH
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS WILL
PRESENT THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PERHAPS
SEVERE, ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AM UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA
AGAIN AROUND 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN HAZARD RISK THROUGHOUT THE DAY:
GIVEN INITIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF MID-DAY, LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. HIGH AMOUNTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, WHICH ALREADY WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
TO PRODUCE UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. THAT SAID, AN ANALYSIS OF
THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO SHOWS STEEP 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE, AND STRONG VENTING ALOFT (55-65+
KTS). ADDITIONALLY, SOUNDINGS DEPICT MUCH OF THE MUCAPE WITHIN
THE HGZ, WITH WEAK VALUES BELOW THE HGZ. THIS, PAIRED WITH
STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW, MAY BE ENOUGH OF A
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC BALANCE FOR HAIL UP TO LIMES TO TENNIS
BALLS. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE, HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LONG AND STRAIGHT
ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION WHICH WOULD FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS. IN FACT, SOME CAM MEMBERS SHOW DECENT BACKING ALOFT
THROUGH THE 1-6 KM LAYER, WHICH MAY ACTUALLY FAVOR LEFT-MOVERS
OVER RIGHT-MOVERS. SINCE LEFT-MOVERS GENERALLY OVERACHIEVE HAIL
SIZE (AND/OR AMOUNT), THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND PAIRED WITH ELEVATED STORM BASES, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS GOOD FOR MINI, LOW-TOPPED, LEFT-MOVING
SUPERCELLS AT LEAST DURING MID-DAY TO MID-AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 10 AM AND
4 PM, THERE'S IS UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER, STORM, AND SEVERE
CHANCES BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
ASCENT WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT, THESE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD, WHICH COULD OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE, WASHING OUT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE, AS WELL AS THE
COOLER SURFACE AIR KEEPING THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. FORECASTER INTUITION AND PATTERN RECOGNITION
POINTS TO THIS AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, EFFECTIVELY ENDING
THE SEVERE THREAT BY EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, SOME CAMS SUGGEST A LESS ROBUST ROUND OF STORMS DURING
THE DAY AND/OR BETTER RECOVERY FOLLOWING THE STORMS AS MASS-
RESPONSE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE/SURFACE LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE
BACK NORTH. THEREFORE, I MUST TALK ABOUT THE THIS POTENTIAL
SCENARIO. IF THERE IS LESS ROBUST STORMS DURING THE DAY, AND/OR
DECENT RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
COULD LIFT SOME DISTANCE NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. IF THIS
OCCURS, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA (HREF GIVES A 40-50% CHANCE FOR >1000 J/KG
SBCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WOULD TURN SOUTHERLY IN THIS AREA,
AND WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW, MODELS EVEN BRING THEM
SOUTHEASTERLY, ELONGATING HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
100-200 0-1 KM M2/S2 AND 15-25 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. DESPITE THE
ELONGATION, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR A BIT ON THE MARGINAL SIDE MAY STILL
LIMIT THE THREAT AND/OR CONTINUE THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT, WE
WILL HAVE A BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY, SO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
OOPSIE ACTION COULD STILL OCCUR. THIS WOULD PRESENT A TORNADO
RISK FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM-FRONT-
TURNED-COLD-FRONT THAT DROPS THROUGH AFTER 4 PM. THIS RISK IS
OF COURSE CONDITIONAL ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE AREA, SO TRENDS OF MID-DAY CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT
RECOVERY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS SCENARIO. ANY
TORNADO RISK SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY REPEATED RAINFALLS:
WITH SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY (ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND DURING THE
EVENING), A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANY
LOCATION THAT SEES THE STRONGER STORMS AND/OR REPEATED STORMS.
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
LIFT WOULD PRESENT THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. ALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT, OF
WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI, AND THE LOWER 40S IN WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MOSTLY DRY WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK:
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
RATHER ZONAL WITH THE JET RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
US IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. THE COOLEST DAY/NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH MAY PRESENT A FROST
RISK IF TRENDS CONTINUE DECREASING TEMPERATURES. ALSO DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, THERE COULD BE A LOW 15-25% CHANCE FOR LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE AREA.
NBM AND LREF ENSEMBLES HINT AT A WARM-UP BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
QUITE A FEW AVIATION WEATHER EVENTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE 12Z
TAF PERIOD. FRISTLY, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
15-21Z (50-70% CHANCE). ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND HAIL, ESPECIALLY AT BBG. ALONG WITH THE
WARM FRONT, AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN.
SECONDLY, AFTER 19-21Z, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL
REMAINS, BUT BECOMES MORE ISOLATED (<40% CHANCE) AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED
A PROB30 FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. ONCE AGAIN, LIGHTNING AND HAIL
WILL BOTH BE HAZARDS, ESPECIALLY AT BBG.
FOURTHLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS, LINGERING
LIFT AND MOISTURE COULD CREATE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE 23-04Z
TIMEFRAME.
LASTLY, THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE 8-12 KT
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHERLY FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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