304
FXUS63 KSGF 191813
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD WITH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO BEING SECONDARY HAZARDS.
ADDITIONAL, NON SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SOUTH
OF SPRINGFIELD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
ON TODAY WITH FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
(50%) OF SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 AGAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD TO THE 90S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN (10-20%) ARRIVES SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF NEBRASKA AND INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. A CORRIDOR OF WARM
AIR ALOFT (CAPPING) EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT WAS MOVING INTO MISSOURI ALONG A
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WARM FRONT THEN STRETCHED OUT
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR
OUT WHICH IS ALLOWING THAT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SPRINGFIELD. TEMPS VARIED ACROSS THE AREA WITH 70S NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD TO THE LOW TO MID 90S SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURING NEAR AND BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH
LOWER DEWPOINTS SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH ML
CAPE AROUND 1500J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR WAS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE.
HOT CONDITIONS: WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
PUSH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A JOPLIN
TO BRANSON LINE. TEMPS WILL THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. HEAT INDICIES AROUND 100-105 WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE
HEAT ADVISORY AREA AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED BEFORE ITS
EXPIRATION THIS EVENING.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL: AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND
WILL HELP TO FORCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. 12Z HREF AND REFS ALONG WITH
LATEST HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF SPRINGFIELD AFTER 3PM. THE CORRIDOR
FROM ROLLA TO HOUSTON TO GAINESVILLE AND EAST IS MOST FAVORED.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL GROW INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO
70MPH THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. GIVEN THE INCREASED BULK SHEAR,
THE FORECAST LARGE HAIL PARAMETER OF 4-6 WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, HOWEVER MOST
INSTANCES WOULD BE LESS THAN THAT. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
FURTHER NORTH (CLOSER TO ROLLA) WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER HAIL
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN REMAIN ISOLATED. GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL
HOWEVER IT WOULD HAVE TO TAKE A FAVORABLE BOUNDARY INTERACTION
FOR THAT TO OCCUR AND CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURING IS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AFTER 8-9PM HOWEVER A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
BORDER. THE FORECAST 850MB FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THEREFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AND THEN SAG SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE SEVERE HOWEVER A FEW COULD
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/BRIEF GUSTY WINDS BEFORE MOVING OUT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE ONE INCH OR LESS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HOT CONDITIONS: THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A 850MB TEMP GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THEREFORE A DECENT SURFACE TEMP
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LIKELY SET UP WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS WEST OF
SPRINGFIELD. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS WHERE DROUGHT IS INCREASING. MEAN
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO COME IN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOONS
(MIDDLE/UPPER 60S) WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH KEEPING HEAT INDICIES
AT OR BELOW 100. THE NWS HEAT RISK TOOL SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE
LEVELS WITH SOME INCREASE TO MAJOR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK, MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE PROLONGED HEAT.
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY-MONDAY: RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE 20
PERCENT OR LESS AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER AT TIMES THOUGH DEPENDING
ON TIMING OF WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IF THE
RIDGE REMAINS FURTHER WEST OF THE AREA THEN PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD BE LESS AND MORE CONFINED WEST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN DETAILS A
LITTLE MORE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS TO
SGF AND BBG FOR OVERNIGHT STORM POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT BBG AND SGF TO START THE PERIOD THEN SWITCHING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ093-101>105.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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