523
FXUS63 KSGF 011050
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S TO THE NORTH TO
AROUND 60 CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER.
- SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT IS DOMINATED BY A UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG WITH UPPER
CYCLONES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT ALONG I-70 THIS EVENING WAS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AND WILL BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT
EVOLVES UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
REGION...ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES BACK NORTHWARD AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGIME. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG THE MO-AR BORDER
WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE (20-30%) LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHWARD
MOVING FRONT...SOME NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE WARRANTED.
WITH PRECIPITAL WATER BEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF COAST COUPLED WITH LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
SHOWERS...AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN SHOULD EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES UP TO
PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
CLOUD COVER OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 TO KNOCK BACK
HIGHS TEMPS A BIT TODAY...WITH AREAS ALONG I-44 TO THE ARKANSAS
BORDER AGAIN SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
BACK SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MODEL UNIFORMITY IN THE SHORT RANGE GIVES WAY TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPACTING THE WESTERN RIDGE TOWARD THE
START OF NEXT WEEK RAISING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TEMPERATURES/CLOUDS/WINDS...THOUGH THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
SIGNALS FOR RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) THEN APPEAR OVER THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUED THROUGH TONIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AN IFR STRATUS DECK WILL DROP SOUTHWARD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...REACHING HIGHWAY 54 BEFORE SUNSHINE LEADS TO SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD SPREAD.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
BECOMING VARIABLE LATER TODAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...RUNNELS
AVIATION...RUNNELS
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