602
FXUS63 KSGF 102342
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- DRY AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE MAY INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
FIRE STARTS. HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK;
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING TIMING AND SYSTEM
EVOLUTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER AL, WITH
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS
PATTERN IS LARGELY AIDING IN KEEPING ISAIAS REMNANTS OUT OF OUR
AREA, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES AS OF 1230PM RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS/SOUTH- CENTRAL MO WHERE MID- TO HIGH- LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AS SHOWN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
"COOLER", WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S.
AS ISAIAS CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION, RAISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 18- 20C RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN,
LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25MPH
GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE (65-85% PROBABILITY ACCORDING TO THE
HREF). WITH THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30-40% RANGE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65, AND INTO THE 25-35% RANGE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY. DESPITE
THE STRONGEST WINDS NOT ALIGNING WITH THE DRIEST AREAS, ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED FUEL INFORMATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. DID END UP
LOWERING HIGHS FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC BY A COUPLE DEGREES ON
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONING
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, WE'LL BE CHALLENGING RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
THE INCREASED WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS UP TO 35MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND UP TO 20-30MPH EAST OF
THE HIGHWAY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EAST OF HIGHWAY 65
WHERE MINIMUM RHS DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION TODAY
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. IT'S CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO INGEST TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ONCE SHE MAKES LANDFALL
OFF THE COAST OF CA/NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND PUSHES OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE
SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT, WITH LARGE SPREADS BETWEEN THE
MODELS REGARDING THE SYSTEMS EVOLUTION/TIMING LEADING TO
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT THINKING HAS A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
AND LIFTING IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OF COURSE, THERE ARE STILL TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT (30-60%),
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (65-85%) ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THURSDAY (30-60% POPS) AND PRECIPITATION ENDS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED, THIS IS A FAIRLY COMPLEX FORECAST WITH MANY
DISCREPANCIES. THEREFORE, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
WEEDS OF SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH DETAILS CONTINUING TO
GET IRONED OUT IN FUTURE UPDATES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
IN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, BENEATH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE PATTERN CHANGES BY 14-16Z WHEN WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND PICK UP TO 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KTS AT TIMES. DURING THIS PERIOD, SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FILTER IN FROM WEST TO EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM LATE
SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCT 6 SHOWED A CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) AND AN OVERALL CATEGORICAL
DEGRADATION ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
FUEL MOISTURE INDICES SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. WOODY FM READINGS
BETWEEN 60-70 AND HERB FM VALUES OF 30-60 SUGGEST THESE FUELS
ARE CURED OR VERY DRY. COMBINED, THESE PRODUCE A GROWING SEASON
INDEX (GSI) OF 0.1 TO 0.3, INDICATING FUEL DORMANCY.
FURTHERMORE, KBDI VALUES GREATER THAN 600 (AND IN SOME CASES
GREATER THAN 700) ALSO SUGGEST FUELS ARE NEAR OR COMPLETELY
CURED.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
MET IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WE WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN OUR FIRE
WEATHER SEASON MESSAGING, AND HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD
RFW CRITERIA BE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ONWARD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OCTOBER 11:
KSGF: 91/1963
KJLN: 91/2020
KVIH: 92/1963
KUNO: 93/1963
OCTOBER 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975
OCTOBER 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...PRICE
FIRE WEATHER...DIDIO
CLIMATE...MELTO
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