381
FXUS63 KSGF 211751
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FEATURING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE ARE STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE CWA OVER THE MO/IL
BORDER. BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING
CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE
SHORTWAVE.
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30MPH TODAY,
PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-44 AND WEST OF HWY 65, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE A
DAILY OCCURRENCE HOWEVER, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
WE CAN EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) THURSDAY EVENING,
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING (70-90%). SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK PLACING
THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5), WITH A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXTENDING TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST AND JUST
CLIPPING BOURBON COUNTY.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, AS THE
SPECIFICS WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTS LOCATION AND HOW
PROGRESSIVE IT PUSHES THROUGH. IF IT CAN REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE,
WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 HAVING THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, THEN RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD BE
LOWER.
SEVERAL SPOKES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE CIRCULATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT,
THERE EXISTS DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST NBM RUN SHOWS A 55-65% PROBABILITY OF THE AREA SEEING AT
LEAST 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE
RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE OZARKS EXPERIENCED OVER THIS PAST
WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A LARGE PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 30 KNOTS.
TONIGHT, WINDS STAY A BIT ELEVATED NEAR 10 KNOTS AND A MVFR
CLOUD DECK MOVES IN BY THE MORNING HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...SORIA
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