076
FXUS63 KSGF 171941
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
- OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS APPROACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A
DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO TEXAS.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO CYCLE THROUGH THE TROUGH REGION
WITH PERIODIC CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF SNOW FLURRIES. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 30S OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHICH HAS HAD
SOME SUNSHINE, BUT WERE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN
CENTRAL MO WHICH HAD MORE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW FLURRIES.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES SHOULD END THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. DO HAVE SOME
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN FOR OUR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE UPPER
ENERGY WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT IN OUR CWA. AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT, WE'LL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN
TO RAMP UP WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE A 2 TO
3 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE COULD APPROACH/EXCEED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN PATCHY AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR
ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA WHICH MAY ONLY GET TO THE UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR HIGHS.
WE'LL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO NONE
AT THIS POINT.
OUTSIDE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND: THE UPPER PATTERN
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO BE
OUTLIERS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE DATA WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY VARIABLE THAT STILL NEED TO GET
RESOLVED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, GUSTY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA INCLUDING THE TAF SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
START TO INCREASE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND GUSTY BY
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING AGAIN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page