672
FXUS63 KSGF 251948
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-60% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS THE MAIN THREAT. MARGINAL IS FOR
MOST OF OUR AREA, SLIGHT IS MOSTLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. TIMING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS 2-8 PM.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF AN MCV BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN WARM STILL REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT TODAY STAYING UNDER 10 MPH.
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN HIGH ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS THE AREA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO FLOW IN
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A DECAYING MCV WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF KS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SE KS/SW MO AS THE MCV DIVES SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL OK JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE
DYING MCV WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO AN UNSTABLE (4000
J/KG MUCAPE) AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE (DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S), WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. THESE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES WILL
COLLIDE WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
A MID- LEVEL TROUGH THAT'S CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(30-60%) ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
MAINLY FROM 2-8 PM. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER AS AR
HAS THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND A
STATIONARY FRONT HANGING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
MAIN THREAT IS 60 MPH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SECONDARY THREAT IS
1 INCH HAIL, AND THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO. PWATS WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES SO ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAIN MAY
SEE NUISANCE FLOODING AS WELL.
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST.
BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE IN OFF THE MCV WILL DICTATE WHERE STORMS
INITIATE, HIGH CLOUDS MAY IMPACT OUR INSTABILITY, AND IF MORNING
SHOWERS LINGER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS WILL KEEP US MORE
STABLE. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR
TOMORROW.
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE START OF SEPTEMBER, CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR THE FOLKS WHO ARE
EAGER FOR FALL TO ARRIVE. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS A
65% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AVG = 82-87 DEGREES)
AND EQUAL CHANCES TO SEE ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
(AVG = 0.73").
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO VARIABLE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL WAIT
UNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES AS THEY
MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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