399
FXUS63 KSGF 201105
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 110 DEGREES. THE HOTTEST DAY
OCCURS ON TUESDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SPANNING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
WERE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ATTENDANT
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSOURI.
HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST SLIGHTLY TODAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WELL MIXED THERMO PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY REGRADING
SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND ULTIMATELY, HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 MPH), WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL AMOUNT OF MIXING. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST RHS ABOVE 850 MB WILL BE QUITE HIGH, SO EVEN WITH THE
MIXING THAT DOES OCCUR, THE DRYING EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE SMALL.
THE RELATIVE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
THE OZARK PLATEAU.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER CANADA WILL TRANSLATE EAST,
PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO MISSOURI. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL NATURALLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE DEGREE
OF WARMING; TO THAT END, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A QUICKER
SOLUTION, BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODELS
SUGGEST THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT BY
SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE WARMING DURING
THE DAY. IN FACT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCATIONS
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS COULD SEE
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE 110 DEGREES
(WARNING CRITERIA), BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO ISSUE
A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 1 PM TODAY THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES. THE NWS
HEATRISK PRODUCT LIKEWISE DEPICTS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
VALUES, SUGGESTING THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND HYDRATION
MEASURES ARE LIKELY TO FACE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
LOW-END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW:
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND WEAK
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ATTENTION WILL NEXT TURN TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FOR
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN IN WHERE/IF/WHEN THEY
INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THEREFORE LIMITING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POPS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED
WOULD BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI (CIRCA HIGHWAY 60 AND
SOUTH). IF CONVECTION DOES INITIATE, RAP 0-3 KM THETA-E
DIFFERENCES AROUND 25-30 DEG C MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS AND WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ACT TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO LOW 90S ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND WITH DEW
POINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MUCH MORE
PLEASANT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY WHICH
MAY OPEN THE DOOR TO MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENT NBM POPS SIT BETWEEN 30 TO 50%.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS EVIDENCED BY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS. A
MORE EASTWARD RIDGE AXIS WOULD TEND TO MEAN ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE A MORE WESTWARD
SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. NBM POPS SUGGEST
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN BOTH OCCURRENCE AND IMPACT WERE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT) AND PREVAIL
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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