502
FXUS63 KSGF 181651
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL END THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
CAUSE FROST FORMATION.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (30-60%) BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT HAS ENDED HOWEVER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WERE OCCURING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING/RESIDUAL FLOODING: THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, LIKELY EXITING THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE. SEVERAL AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER IN FLOOD STAGE OR HAVE ELEVATED
STREAM FLOWS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OSAGE AND SPRING RIVER BASINS. RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY IN THESE AREAS.
MUCH COOLER DAY/ FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT: HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BATTLE THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HOWEVER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 30MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE WEST OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY TONIGHT. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LOW. NBM GENERALLY HAS A 35-38 DEGREE RANGE (25TH/75TH
PERCENTILE) FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AREA HOWEVER SHELTERED OR WIND
PROTECTED AREAS MAY DROP A LITTLE LOWER (HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS). CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
SPOTS THAT HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF TEMPS TREND COLDER THEN A SHORT FUSE FROST ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOSTLY DRY AND MILD THROUGH MID WEEK: ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPS. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM A LITTLE BIT EACH
DAY WITH 70S LIKELY FOR HIGHS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY/FRIDAY: ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST A LARGE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO SET UP OUR NEXT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CIPS ANALOGS AND
CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS HOWEVER
PREDICTABILITY IN FINER DETAILS IS LOW FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME
RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS. WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...PEREZ
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