519
FXUS63 KSGF 231035
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-70%) AHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MO, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
- HEAT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S
TO NEAR 100, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 110 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
WILL INTERACT WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THIS AREA IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING
THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. IN
GENERAL, A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE EXTENT OF
POPS (20-40%) LIMITED TO ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 49. AS
MENTIONED, THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND TRANSLATION FURTHER EAST
WILL BE INHIBITED BY MINIMAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT DISSIPATION TO
OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 49 REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY, CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WILL KEEP IT
QUITE COOL FOR LATE JULY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S (EAST) TO MIDDLE/UPPER 80S (WEST). THIS
MAY EVEN BE TOO WARM IF CLOUD COVER REMAINS EXTENSIVE IN
COVERAGE.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WARM
FRONT LIFTS CLOSER TO THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A 20 TO 30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE MOISTURE INFLUX, WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) FOCUSED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MO. THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND EXACT CORRIDORS OF
POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST TRENDS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. THIS AREA APPEARS TO
SEE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, WITH CONVECTION TAKING ON A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS SETUP WOULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM,
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. THE LATEST HREF
HIGHLIGHTS A CORRIDOR OF LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE,
GENERALLY LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
BACKGROUND, WPC HAS KEPT THE SLIGHT (2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK IN PLACE OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS IS AN
ADJUSTMENT NORTH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING SOUTH AND EAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY:
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY, WITH A RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDING TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS VARYING FROM UPPER 80S (EAST) TO MIDDLE 90S
(WEST). THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE REALLY TAKES SHAPE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS CAN BE GLEANED FROM A SHRINKING INTERQUARTILE
SPREAD, WITH HIGHS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S,
WITH 100S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MO. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THEM SLIGHTLY
"COOLER". NONETHELESS, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA IN LATE JULY. MEANWHILE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPEAR TO BE IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW WELL WE MIX EACH DAY
IN ADDITION TO EXISTING VARIANCE IN DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 60S
TO 70S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WE WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES GOING FORWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN MINIMAL (< 10%) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) TO KJLN AND PERHAPS
KSGF THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A PROB30 GROUP CAPTURES THIS
POTENTIAL AT KJLN. MEANWHILE, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN LATER TODAY. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, TURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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