841
FXUS63 KSGF 071116
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 40-50% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED 60-70
MPH DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO 5% CHANCE), IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE CHANCES
(60-70%) FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
100-105.
- 40-50% CHANCE FOR ABOVE MID-AUGUST AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
(0.5-0.75 INCHES) LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM SAGS BACK
INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONGWAVE IS CURRENTLY POSITION FROM SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI UP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE LOITERING
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ALONG THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. RAP ANALYSIS HAS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERTOP THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORCING A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST KANSAS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO OUR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND I-49 COUNTIES
THIS MORNING (15-50% CHANCE), BUT FOR NOW, THEY APPEAR TO
DISSIPATE ONCE ENTERING OUR AREA.
40-50% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:
MOST HREF/REFS/RAP MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN EAST KANSAS WILL DEVELOP A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) BY THIS MORNING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WOULD SLOWLY TAKE THIS MCV EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO AROUND 90 F, WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL
GENERATE UPWARDS OF 2000-4000+ J/KG SBCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON
(SPEAKING OF WHICH, SOME AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 100-105, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60). ON A
NORMAL DAY LIKE TODAY, UPDRAFTS WOULD NEED TO BREAK THROUGH ANY
WEAK CAPPING TO PRODUCE STORMS. HOWEVER, POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD PROVIDE SOME EXTRA SYNOPTIC
ASCENT TO AID DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE FOCUSED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE SYNOPTIC
ASCENT WILL OVERLAP THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STORMS WOULD
THEN LAST JUST AFTER SUNSET BEFORE NOCTURNAL CAPPING DIMINISHES
STORMS BY AROUND 10 PM OR SO.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS:
CURRENTLY, THERE IS NO SPC SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR OUR AREA. THE
REASONS ARE TWO-FOLD. ONE, SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE (10-20
KTS), MEANING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. TWO,
MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT VARIED ON THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN
STORMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE,
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE COULD SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS. THE THERMODYNAMICS ACTUALLY LOOK A BIT MORE POTENT
THAN THE PARAMETERS THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION TO VERY HIGH INSTABILITY, THE RAP FORECASTS QUITE A BIG
AREA OF 1500-2000+ J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT INSTABILITY (DCAPE) ALONG
WITH QUITE HIGH MICROBURST PARAMETERS (9-11; MAX IS 12).
ADDITIONALLY, THE OZARKS PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDEX IS
OUTPUTTING HIGH VALUES (16-18; MAX IS 20) DUE TO 25-30 K THETA-E
DIFFS AND STEEP 7-8 C/KM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH.
ADDED SHEAR FROM THE MCV COULD CREATE SOME CLUSTERS OF STORMS AS
WELL, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THIS THREAT. THE SPC INCLUDED A
MENTION OF THIS RISK IN THEIR DISCUSSION, POTENTIALLY UPGRADING
THE AREA TO A MARGINAL IF CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. RAIN RATES OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR WERE
OBSERVED WITH STORMS YESTERDAY, AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
ENVIRONMENT TODAY, WE CAN EXPECT THE SAME SORT OF RATES IN
STRONGER STORMS. FURTHERMORE, THE INTRODUCTION OF THE MCV COULD
RESULT IN SOME TRAINING OF STORMS. FOR THESE REASONS, THE WPC
ALMOST INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR AREA, BUT HELD OFF DUE
TO THE DRY SOILS AND THE SAME COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES OUTLINED BY
THE SPC.
WE WILL MONITOR HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS MORNING FOR ANY
POTENTIAL UPGRADES IN BOTH SPC AND WPC THREAT LEVELS. FOR NOW,
BE AWARE THAT A FEW STORMS TODAY COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL FINALLY BE REMOVED FROM OUR AREA
STARTING SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION, PRODUCING MORE SINKING AIR AND RISING
HEIGHTS/PRESSURE. THIS WILL DECREASE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF
RAIN AND STORMS AND BRING PERSISTENT HEAT TO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. NBM 25-75TH TEMPERATURES
SPREADS CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND WEST
APPROACHING 100 F. CURRENT DEWPOINT FORECASTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO
BE OVERLY "EXCESSIVE" WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THEREFORE, HEAT INDEX VALUES WON'T BE "EXTREME" (>110 F), AND
CURRENT NBM/LREF ENSEMBLES PUT <15% CHANCE FOR >105 F. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE MODERATELY-HIGH (60-70%) CHANCES FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-105 TO OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT HEAT LIKE THIS ALONG WITH LITTLE
RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WILL ELEVATE HEAT
RISK AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HEAT
ADVISORY BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER, WE WON'T EXACTLY BE UNDER A RIDGE/HEAT DOME.
AND WITH MOISTURE BEING PLENTIFUL, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TO BE THE CASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING <15%.
PATTERN CHANGE TO BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK:
AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PERIODS OF NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES BRING THE JET STREAM A BIT MORE SOUTH, ENHANCING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. ANY SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW COULD BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN. CURRENT
FORECASTS PLACE 30-60% CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
ONWARDS. THE CPC GIVES US A 40-50% CHANCE FOR SEEING ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN AUGUST 12-16. SINCE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS AROUND 0.5-0.75 INCHES,
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING THAT AMOUNT BETWEEN
AUGUST 12-16.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWER AND STORM CELLS IN EAST KANSAS,
STRETCHING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE HAVE A 30-40% CHANCE
OF COMING WITHIN THE VICINITY OF JLN AROUND 12Z. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND JLN BETWEEN 12-16Z. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, ELSEWHERE, 8-12 KT WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z, WITH SEVERAL
LAYERS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
DURING PEAK HEATING BETWEEN 21-03Z, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, THOUGH THERE'S A GOOD
CHANCE THEY STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. BBG HAS THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARBY (50% CHANCE). IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES IMPACT A TAF SITE, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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