217
FXUS63 KSGF 041118
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MOST.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
BECOME A CONCERN.
- EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE LOW 60S
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TO RIGHT AROUND 70 ALONG THE KANSAS
BORDER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE
SUNRISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
OUT EAST TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST. WHILE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, STRONGER WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST TO THE WEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR,
PAIRED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT INSOLATION.
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE THAT SOME MAY SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
THOUGH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEARBY, THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON A BIT LONGER. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PRIMARY FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST MOVES CLOSER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-70S WEST OF HWY 65 AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE EAST.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ENHANCES WAA,
AND CLOUDS STAY BROKEN ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA IS LOOKING AT HIGHS NEARING 100 WHILE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BORDERS MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105,
HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED AND IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT HEAT HEADLINES JUST YET.
AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF INITIATING A FEW STORMS,
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
WOULD BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER SHEAR AND SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE. THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE EVENING, ENCOUNTERING 3-
4K J/KG OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS. WITH 0-3
KM SHEAR VECTORS JUST A BIT OFFSET FROM LINE-NORMAL, A MIXED-MODE
EVENT LOOKS MOST LIKELY, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD DAMAGING WINDS WITH
LINE SEGMENTS FORMED BY CONGEALING CELLS. SMALL HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORMS IF THEY STAY DISCRETE LONG ENOUGH.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-44, WITH POPS
RANGING FROM AROUND 40% ALONG THE PLATEAU UP TO 70% IN WEST-
CENTRAL MO. THOSE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE
MUCH ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK, ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE BOTH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND LESS INTENSE.
AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
HAS BEEN SITTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDS AN INVERTED TROUGH OF
SORTS THAT JOINS FORCES WITH IT, ALLOWING MORE RAIN TO MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONTAL ENERGY AS IT BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH. THIS
LOW WILL HAVE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD THAT KEEP THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GOING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN, THOUGH A
POTENTIALLY SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW STORMS TO PUT DOWN SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. IT WILL TEMPER DAYTIME HIGHS A TOUCH, WITH THOSE NEARER
CENTRAL MO SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH THOSE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST MO SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID-90S. POPS REMAIN LARGELY
BELOW 40% FOR MOST OF THE DAY, RAMPING UP TO AROUND 60% SOUTH OF I-
44 OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD.
RAIN SLOWLY COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY, HOWEVER POPS
PERK BACK UP TO 20-30% EAST OF HWY 65 OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST MO. TEMPERATURES SIT NEAR AND EVEN
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COOL US
OFF AND INHIBIT FURTHER WARMING. WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER
SEVERAL DAYS, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED RAINFALL.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL LAND IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 FOR MOST. THE
RISK FOR EXTREME HEAT RETURNING NEXT WEEK REMAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SSE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 20-00Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. DRY WITH A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL 06Z WHEN CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO
INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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