385
FXUS63 KSGF 101127
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 (30-50%) WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 (60-80%).
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH DECREASING
CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN
IA IS FOCUSED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK, THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, AND IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION.
ALL THESE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT TODAY, BUT STILL COULD SEE 60-80% PROBABILITIES
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 THIS MORNING, THEN ROUGHLY 30-50%
CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 60 THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTH
OF I-44, CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20%. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
COULD SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
65, WITH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO POSSIBLY SEEING DENSE FOG.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
AS HAS BEEN A BIT OF A TRADITION AROUND HERE AS OF LATE, A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE PATTERN TO BE MARGINALLY DISRUPTED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THAT SHOULD DO
LITTLE MORE THAN LEAD TO SOME COOLER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST AND NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGH
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S (COOLEST NW) AS VALUES ARE
BIASED LOW DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND 20% CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER THE NW. IF THE FRONT THAT MAY LEAD TO THESE FEATURES DOES
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA, THEN DRY WEATHER AND MID 80S HIGHS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
THAT LEADS TO DECREASING CONFIDENCE WITH TIME. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. KSGF WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS (AROUND 50%), WHILE KJLN SEES A 30%
CHANCE, AND KBBG A 20% CHANCE. COULD SEE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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