551
FXUS63 KSGF 150345
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1045 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN MID TO UPPER 80S APPROACHING RECORDS.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND WAS NOW POSITIONED
FROM EAST TX INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. STATES WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. POLAR
ORBITING SATELLITE PW DATA SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
WEST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN OK AND KS ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WAS SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN KS
INTO FAR WESTERN MO, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVER MO WAS LIKELY
PUTTING THE KABASH ON ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES.
TONIGHT:
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP OVER
THE AREA. A DRY LINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, HOWEVER PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE LOW
PROBABILITY WITH FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND A DECENT CAP
OVER THE AREA. MARGINAL RISK WAS REMOVED FROM THE AREA IN AN EARLIER
UPDATE.
FRIDAY: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF. DESPITE A DECENT CAP IN PLACE,
ELEVATED MU CAPES INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA.
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 17-20 DEG C RANGE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA BRINGING ABOUT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
STARTING FRIDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SATURDAY: BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION, MOSTLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL START TO PIVOT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE
THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL EXIST. OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO
DURING THE EVENING. WITH THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING BEHIND THE
FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST AND COULD CLIP
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT
COVERAGE AND CHANCES WILL BOTH BE LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND COULD GUSTS UP TO 20KT
AT TIMES, BUT THERE WILL BE TIMES WHEN WINDS ARE NOT AS GUSTY
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN GUSTY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
KJLN: 72/1941
KUNO: 55/1998
KVIH: 65/2023
MAY 16:0
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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