061
FXUS63 KSGF 051832
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50-70%)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (20-60%) MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HANDFUL OF SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE DEPICTS MUCAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN LESS
PREVALENT. SOME UPDRAFTS MAY GET TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING, THOUGH VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
ANY PARTICULAR STORM. WE HAVE LEFT LOW-END POPS (20-40%) IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SOME CAMS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY FESTERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUNDAY:
SUNDAY FEATURES THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 50-70% POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSITS THE REGION,
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL SPUR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING IS PROGGED TO PUSH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES OF
20-25 DEG C, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. SHEAR
STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AGAIN, SO INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO STAY ORGANIZED. PWATS IN THE 1.6-2.0" RANGE WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
HOWEVER.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ENSEMBLE SUITE WAS NOTED FOR THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST; THAT IS, A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR
INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NBM PERCENTILES
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EACH DAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
A HANDFUL OF SMALL, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE CURRENT
TAFS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE WESTERLY AFTER 15Z ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL, AND PERHAPS MORE
WIDESPREAD, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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