816
FXUS63 KSGF 111751
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY SETTLE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE AROUND -10 TO
-5 F DEGREES.
- DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO
START NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS OVER SE KS AND
SW MO. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAKING IT FEEL MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CLOUDS STICK AROUND AS WELL AS LOWS SIT IN THE MID 30S.
NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS
WILL START OUT SOUTHERLY THEN FLIP NORTHERLY AND GUST UP TO 25
MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED OVER US. THERE
IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THAT FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH SOUTHERN MO. NBM STILL HAS A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
FOR SPRINGFIELD AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS EITHER
IN THE 40S OR 50S. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE THE WARM FRONT ONLY MAKING
IT JUST NORTH OF I-44. HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-44 AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH OF I-44.
THEN, ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGER CAA FINALLY REACHES US SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS SITTING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS. NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE MAY NEED ONE AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE'D NEED TO HAVE A WIDESPREAD -10 TO -5 F WIND CHILL
RANGE AND RIGHT NOW WE ONLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS HITTING
THE CRITERIA. THE AREAS THAT WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AN
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE AREAS NORTH OF I-44 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
65 UP NEAR CENTRAL MO AND NEAR ROLLA. LREF HAS PROBABILITY OF
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) < -10 F AT 12-20% IN THOSE
AREAS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MEDIUM AT DURATION AND COVERAGE OF
THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. THIS LATEST UPDATE HAS TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IT MAY DROP EVEN MORE IN
THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.
SUNDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S, BUT SKIES START TO CLEAR OUT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE IN. THE START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND
RAIN CHANCES ALL BUT DISAPPEARED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATE. MONDAY STARTS THE WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. BY MID-WEEK, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THIS RETURN OF MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PUT THE AREA 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
HIGH CLOUDS (BASES 8KFT - 15KFT) THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH VFR
PREVAILING. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH 00Z, WHEN SURFACE WINDS
CALM SOME.
AFTER 00Z, LLWS (35-50KTS) WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 08-09Z. LLWS WILL BE LARGELY
AROUND 1900-2000FT, BUT COULD EXTEND AS LOW AS 1300FT IN THE 1-2
HOURS IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH IS ALSO WHEN
IT WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST (UP TO 55KTS). LLWS RAPIDLY
DECREASES AND SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AFTER THAT 08-09Z PASSAGE.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH THERE MAY BE PATCHY AREAS WHERE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
FALL ALOFT, BUT PRECIP NEVER REACHES THE GROUND (VIRGA).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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