141  
FXUS63 KSGF 221735  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY.  
 
2. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
EARLY MONDAY.  
 
3. GUSTY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
4. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY  
RAIN CHANCES.  
 
5. SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
CURRENT MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PUSHING EASTWARD,  
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN  
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE A  
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S.  
 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST LATER TODAY, A WARM FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER  
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS, IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE  
CONTENT OVER THE AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO TONIGHT,  
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS KS AND INTO WESTERN MO, AS  
FAVORABLE LIFT FROM THE LLJ WILL BE PRESENT.THE CURRENT SPC DAY 1  
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK MAINLY IN THE WESTERN  
PORTION OF THE CWA, WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
SATURDAY:  
AFTER THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM RISK, HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTH. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT  
CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM  
TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING  
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS THE LLJ  
CONTINUING TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, PROMOTING FURTHER  
MOISTURE ADVECTION.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT:  
A DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL  
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE  
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SATURDAY NIGHT,  
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. CURRENT MODELS SHOW US IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH  
REGARDS TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST  
INDEX (EFI) AND SHIFT OF TAILS SHOW THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO BE MORE NORTH OF THE REGION IN NORTHERN MISSOURI, BUT  
OTHER MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE SPC'S CURRENT OUTLOOK SHOWS AN ENHANCED  
RISK OVER MOST OF THE CWA, WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. AS  
FUTURE MODEL RUNS COME OUT AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN  
LOCATION/SEVERITY, UPDATES WILL BE MADE.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING, ALLOWING MOST OF MONDAY TO BE QUIET. THIS WILL BE  
SHORTLIVED, HOWEVER, AS WINDS SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY SHIFT,  
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. THE WPC  
CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOL (WCAT) SHOWS INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS  
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NEXT WAVE, BUT ANOTHER  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AS EARLY  
AS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE, SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SCATTERED  
STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN  
KANSAS AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING THE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO WITH EMBEDDED  
SCATTERED STORMS AT TIMES. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IN THE  
STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHWARTZ  
LONG TERM...SCHWARTZ  
AVIATION...WISE  
 
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