025
FXUS63 KSGF 020422
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1122 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHTTIME
RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE HOT CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TO CELEBRATE THE HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE
COOLING AND HYDRATION OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON THURSDAY AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-49 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS
THE MAIN RISK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- SCATTERED STORMS (20-50%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR AREA PLACED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS. OBSERVATIONS
SHOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
AREAS EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE LOW 90S.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALSO SHOWN HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S, LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIR-
WEATHER CLOUDS, AS THE DRY AIRMASS AND CURRENT CAP REMAINS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE, OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY
GUSTED UP TO 20-25MPH FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MIXING WAS OCCURRING, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
NOT A HUGE SYNOPTIC CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS TO
OUR EAST WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. CURRENTLY THE HEAT ADVISORY GOES UNTIL FRIDAY, HOWEVER
WITH THE SIMILAR CONDITIONS SPILLING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND MANY HAVING OUTDOOR PLANS, WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS WHETHER
AN EXTENSION INTO SATURDAY IS NEEDED. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES
WILL CONTINUE ASSESSING, AND WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE CAP OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, WITH PEAK HEATING OCCURRING EACH AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT, ISOLATED PULSE-LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE (<30%) THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB- SEVERE,
HOWEVER WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM LEADING TO
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT COLLAPSES. NOT ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY, WITH COVERAGE REMAINING LIMITED. THESE
WILL BE THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PULSE STORMS THAT ARE MORE PESKY
AND ISOLATED IN NATURE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
DISCREPANCIES LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE, TIMING,
ETC. RIGHT NOW WE'RE STICKING WITH DAILY CHANCES (20-50%) OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE UPDATES
AS THINGS BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND WILL BE COME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (< 25%) FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED SO CONFIDENCE IN A TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...WISE
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