568
FXUS63 KSGF 201109
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10MPH WERE CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS
FROM -5 TO 10F. THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXISTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR SOME CLOUD COVER
AND ACTUALLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE COMING OFF OF STOCKTON LAKE
AND AFFECTING SGF.
SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH COLDEST READINGS IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. WENT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE MORE
SNOW COVER EXISTS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE SLIDING OVER ILLINOIS AND A 300MB JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI GETTING INTO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET. FRONTOGENESIS PLOTS FROM THE
RAP SHOWS A 700MB FN ZONE IN A NARROW BAND THAT CLIPS MILLER,
MARIES, PHELPS AND DENT COUNTIES. IT IS ALSO SPITTING OUT A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THIS POINT WILL PUT
FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THIS
AREA, HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE THAT FN BAND SETS UP
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, AS THIS WAS REQUIRE HIGHER POPS AND PERHAPS A
DUSTING OF SNOW.
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS THE
HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US
ON MONDAY, HOWEVER OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TUESDAY WITH A
TRAILING FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEREFORE QPF AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND THERE MAY BE MORE
DRIZZLE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. AT THIS TIME,
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH A DRY SLOT IN THE MID LEVELS PUNCHING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD AIR WILL GET
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE CANT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT WINTER MIX FOR A FEW HOURS
TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER QPF LOOKS VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL JUST
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPS FURTHER DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW THAT WELL HOWEVER
ALL HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP JUST AT DIFFERENT TIMES DURING THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SUN JAN 20 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL START OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THEN SWITCHING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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