925
FXUS63 KSGF 082330
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (50-75%) THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) AND SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT RISK IS OVER CRAWFORD AND CHEROKEE
COUNTIES.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA: HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS (1.75"),
VERY LOW-END TORNADO RISK, 60 MPH DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 10 PM.
MARGINAL RISK AREA: HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS (1.25"), 60 MPH
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 11 PM.
- PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (20-60%)
RETURNS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN OCCURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE 70S
AND 80S RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
IN RELATION TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS LARGELY REMAINED UNCHANGED. BROAD TROUGHING STILL EXISTS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A JET STREAK OVER OUR AREA. MAIN CHANGES ARE A SLIGHT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER SOUTH ARIZONA
(NOW OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO), AND THE APPROACH OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING THROUGH
NEBRASKA/KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, AND NOTED 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE FRONT HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. AREAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN
SOUTHERN MISSOURI HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, WHILE
AREAS BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING:
SEMI-GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING IN MEAGER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAP ANALYSIS PUTS
CURRENT MUCAPE VALUES AT 100-600 J/KG, WITH RAP FORECASTS
INCREASING TO 750-1250 J/KG, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44. FORECAST
PARAMETERS HAVE GENERALLY DOWNTRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
WITH RAP AND HREF FORECASTS NOW PUTTING AROUND 35-40 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILES
CREATE A CLOUD-BEARING LAYER THINNER THAN 0-6 KM, WHICH MAY KEEP
STORM-EFFECTIVE SHEAR A BIT LOWER THAN 35-40 KTS. THUS,
EXPECTATIONS IS FOR THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO FORCE A BROKEN LINE
OF SHORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO/EAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE BEST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (NORTH OF
I-44). THE MARGINAL PARAMETERS LEADS TO POTENTIAL MAX HAIL SIZE
OF AROUND HALF DOLLARS IN ANY STRONGER STORM, THOUGH INCREASED
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK (CRAWFORD
AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES), PARAMETERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER, SO
IF A SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA, HAIL UP
TO PING PONGS TO GOLF BALLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IN A 2% TORNADO RISK, BUT WITH HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, THE
RISK APPEARS VERY LOW-END.
AS THE STORMS SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEASTWARD, THEY (AND THE FORCING COLD FRONT) WILL ENCOUNTER
SINKING AIR WITHIN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB JET
STREAK. ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY WILL DWINDLE TO <500 J/KG
HERE. THEREFORE, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-44, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE (50-75% CHANCE).
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
DISINTEGRATING COLD FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE SIGNAL STAYING LARGELY
WITHIN THE MOIST-BIASED MODELS, NOT TOO KEEN ON THE SIGNAL YET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER 20-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY:
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING A
STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
DETAILS ON COVERAGE OF RESULTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL A
BIT MESSY, OSCILLATING AMONG GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS, THOUGH
WITH LARGE- SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (20-60% CHANCE). THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MO BORDER SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONVERGES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, PROVIDING SOME MORE CONSISTENT LIFT. ALL THAT
SAID, GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS CHANCE OF RAIN.
BRIEF COOLDOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING NEXT WEEK:
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WILL RE-INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY,
BEGINNING ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S MONDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BARELY BUDGES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE FLOW, LOCALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS BEFORE BRIEFLY
DECREASING THEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT WARM UP WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY. LOWS WOULD BE IN THE
50S.
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME LOW-END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOWEVER, CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE, AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CHANCES. THEREFORE,
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERALLY <20% RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR AND WINDS WEAKEN WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GO AS GUIDANCE IS
EQUAL PARTS LIFR AND OTHERS VFR THOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOWERED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE OVER THE KJLN REGION.
VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...RUNNELS
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