378
FXUS63 KSGF 141049
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
COLDER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT WINDS CHILLS EXPECTED EACH WEEKEND MORNING.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES BOTH DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THAT BEGAN PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH NOT A DROUGHT-BUSTER BY ANY
MEANS, OBSERVATIONS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, WITH AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH TO 0.10" NEAR ROLLA, AND EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH THE
REGION AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR. UNFORTUNATELY, THE DAYS OF SEEING
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE OVER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AS
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE DAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS LED TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH OBSERVATIONS AS OF
1AM SHOWCASING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 20MPH. AS THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON PROGRESS, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PEAK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
15-25MPH GUSTING UP TO 25-35MPH. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAINING IN THE 35-45% RANGE, ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED.
TONIGHT WILL YIELD A CHILLY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS, AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION, THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S (EASTERN OZARKS) TO MID 40S (INCREASING FURTHER WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65). WE'LL GET A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THURSDAY NIGHT
WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SUBTLY RISE, LEADING TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION, PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF NOW, ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WILL, HOWEVER BE A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, BRINGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 35MPH TO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, SOME POCKETS
OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE LIKELY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR SATURDAY MORNING, AND THE SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE NEGATIVES SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20KTS
GUSTING UP TO 20-30KTS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE'S A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSGF AND KBBG BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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