581
FXUS63 KSGF 072301
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20-35% RANGE HOWEVER
LIGHT WINDS (GUSTS LESS THAN 15 MPH) WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
20-30% E OF HWY 65 AND 30-40% W OF HWY 65.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL LARGELY SEE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURING
A BROAD 500MB RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TO THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAIAS, CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA, MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, THEN AN UNCERTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY,
THEN POTENTIALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE NEXT WEEK.
DAILY RH VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE 20-30% (POTENTIALLY LOWER AT TIMES) ALONG AND E OF
HWY 65 AND 30-40% WEST OF HWY 65. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 MPH), KEEPING FIRE WEATHER THREATS LOW. STRONGER
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
SPEEDS, TEMPERATURES, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
WEEKEND RAINFALL POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM. EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN SIDE DUE TO RIDGING
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >=0.1" OF RAINFALL
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY 20-40% ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE, MO TO ROLLA, MO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS, BUT
IMPACTS/SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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