511  
FXUS63 KSGF 060450  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
   
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE  
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE TWO MAIN AREAS  
TO WATCH FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE (1) ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR INTO SE KANSAS, AND (2) ACROSS CENTRAL  
MISSOURI.  
 
PER THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING, THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM, DRY AIR  
ABOVE THE LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION (LFC). THIS HAS RESULTED IN  
CUMULUS-PANCAKES, WHERE UPDRAFTS (CLOUDS) FLATTEN OUT ONCE THEY  
MEET THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. HAD MLCAPE VALUES BEEN HIGHER THIS  
AFTERNOON (> 1000 J/KG THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE), UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE  
PUNCHED THROUGH THE DRY AIR, AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY HAVE BEEN  
MORE NUMEROUS. INSTEAD, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ENJOYED A DRY DAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, WHERE THE MID-LEVELS ARE LESS DRY AND WHERE MLCAPE  
VALUES EXCEED 1500 J/KG, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WE  
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT NO STRONG OR  
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN BOTH THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND  
LOW THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP EARLY THIS  
EVENING, IT WOULD LIKELY MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE  
0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS.  
 
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.  
 
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT, EXCEPT THE MID- AND  
UPPER-LEVEL AIR WILL NOT BE AS DRY. THIS SHOULD MAKE ALL THE  
DIFFERENCE, AS UPDRAFTS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FLATTEN OUT, AND  
INSTEAD, DEVELOP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUCH  
ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE AROUND NOON OR LATER ALONG SOLAR- OR  
TERRAIN- INDUCED BOUNDARIES. WHILE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
SEVERE ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME 40-50 MPH WINDS AND PENNY  
HAIL GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE THETA-E DIFFERENTIALS AND SLIGHTLY  
BETTER MLCAPE VALUES. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY 65, WHERE THE CAP WILL  
BE A LITTLE WEAKER. AND, WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED  
WEST TO EAST, ANY POP-UP STORMS WILL MOVE IN A SIMILAR FASHION.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STATUS-QUO THROUGH MID-WEEK AS BROAD  
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.  
 
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO CHANGE-UP BY LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER- LEVEL  
RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND  
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAILY HIGHS  
WILL APPROACH 90-95, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE HUNDOS. WHILE  
IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO ADVERTISE, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 F) FOR FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS.  
 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST THURSDAY  
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY  
RESULT IN STRONG CAPPING, AND SO DAY-TIME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY  
BE VERY LIMITED. INSTEAD, THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME PRONE TO  
A PARADE OF NOCTURNAL MCSS AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INTO SE KANSAS AND SW  
MISSOURI. CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH THE NBM AND DETERMINISTICS  
(GFS/ECMWF) ARE BEGINNING TO HINT TOWARD A WET END OF THE WORK  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY  
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED  
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA FROM THE LATE  
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS  
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING WILL POP UP ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING KSGF/KBBG AND  
AREAS EAST OF THOSE SITES. HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 FOR THOSE  
AERODROMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KJLN, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND OUT OF  
THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ALBANO  
LONG TERM...ALBANO  
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN  
 
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