409
FXUS63 KSGF 261005
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 TO 115 ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY EVENING AS DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES.
- SOME RAIN CHANCES (10-40%) WILL OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DRY
PERIODS DURING THIS TIME AND NOT ALL LOCATIONS CLOUD BE
IMPACTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20C WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY MORE MIXING MAY OCCUR TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND
105 TO 115 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY THEN
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7PM TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI OFF TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE, AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM TO CLIP THE AREA EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY.
LOWS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE MIDDLE
70S TO NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 20C ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CAP BEING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE MIXING THAT OCCURS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LOWER
DEWPOINTS DURING PEAK HEATING MORE THAN WHAT OCCURS TODAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 TO 110 ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
MOVE BACK TO THE WEST SOME. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE AREA
BECOMING MORE IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT THAT COULD THEN MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS POSSIBLE A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PUSHES INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA,
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS. IF THE ACTIVITY DOES
NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA OR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT ARE
NOT AFFECT, THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK AS LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE 70S EACH NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER TO
THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, LEAVING THE REGION IN AN UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE AREA AT TIMES. THERE ARE STILL
QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES AND
JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND TO THE WEST THEY TRACK.
THE RIDGE MOVING BACK TO THE WEST WILL ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS
GENERALLY AT 10KT OF LESS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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