689
FXUS63 KSGF 140743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%)
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING WERE RATHER MILD WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE 60S, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND
90 THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE WEST UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE, ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1.50IN OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO THE OZARKS. CHANCES WILL BE BEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN TO TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THANKS
TO THE SURFACE LOW, WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BETTER
POTENTIAL (50-70%) WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON WHAT
INSTABILITY PEAKS, THOUGH GENERALLY LESS THAN 1500J/KG. THIS
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
NON SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW, STORM MOTION
WILL BE RATHER SLOW. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PWS, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WPC DOES HAVE THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THOUGH WITH
LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS MAY DEPEND HOWEVER ON WHETHER
THE LOW LOITERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS OR MOVES OFF MORE
QUICKLY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT
HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS AROUND 90, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REESTABLISH ITSELF FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, FRIDAY, THE AREA
MAY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH CURRENT ENSEMBLES
KEEP CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
DEPENDING ON THE HOW WARM THE 850MB TEMPERATURES BECOME,
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOWERS 90S BY
SATURDAY. HEAT INDICIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH THE HEAT RISK TOOL INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY'S TO BE REACHED. THIS
PATTERN THEN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
A RESULT AS WELL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAUGHT UNDER THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE WEST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCES
FOR STORMS ALSO EXIST BUT WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES. AS A RESULT,
HAVE KEPT ANY WEATHER MENTION OUT OF THE EXTENDED TAFS, BUT WILL
MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page