689
FXUS63 KSGF 100000
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (50-90%) WILL THEN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S SATURDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
OVERVIEW: CURRENTLY THERE IS A STALLED FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
CWA TO THE EASTERN CWA WITH A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG IT. EXPECT CLUSTERS OF MARGINALLY STRONG TO POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT INTO THE EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME, A MORE PROMINENT COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, LEADING TO A MINIMAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY UP
TO AROUND 5 INCHES, OF RAIN NORTHWEST OF I-44. THE FRONT THEN
PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WITH A SIMILAR MARGINAL SEVERE
RISK OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 ARE FORECAST TO SEE LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO LOCALLY 1 INCH.
THE SPECIFIC SEVERE THREATS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE MAINLY FOR A
LOCALIZED 60 MPH WIND THREAT AND POSSIBLY 1 INCH HAIL. DIURNAL
MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1,500-2,500 J/KG AND
NOCTURNAL VALUES OF 1,000-1,500 J/KG, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHEAR
(GENERALLY < 20 KTS) AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AREAS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF A SHORT FUSE FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CWA, BUT WITH 25 HOUR HREF AND REFS PMM VALUES
GENERALLY NEAR OR LESS THAN 6 HOUR FFG AND LATER AND NORTHERLY
MODEL TRENDS, DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR HIGHS THURSDAY FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER CENTRAL MO TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE AR BORDER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON WHERE
THE STORMS DEVELOP AND THEN HOW THEY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH
CHANCES DECREASING TO THE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO
MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CEILINGS FOR NOW UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A LOWER
CLOUD DECK EXPECTING TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN ENDS BY LATE MORNING AND VFR CEILINGS RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 20
MPH ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI STATE
LINE WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY. WINDS TURN EASTERLY
BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AND TURN NORTHERLY BY 15Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SORIA
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