579  
FXUS63 KSGF 161948  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
248 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOT AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO  
THE MIDDLE 90S. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S DAILY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME RECORD HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED DURING  
THIS TIME.  
 
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MIX DOWN WHICH MAY HELP HEAT INDEX VALUES  
FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND, BUT READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO  
AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
LOWS IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
MISSOURI. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE ENERGY  
AVAILABLE WILL BE USED OVERCOMING THE DRY AREA. THERE COULD BE A  
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CANNOT  
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOONS AS WELL.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID  
WEEK THEN MOVE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK FLATTENING OUT AND  
WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT AND LIFT WILL INITIALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, BUT WITH  
MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA AND THE RIDGE FLATTENING, SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS  
THE THE AREA. A FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT  
WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS  
WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON THE HOW QUICKLY IT WILL  
SHIFT EAST. THE FASTER TRACK WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE  
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING  
AND TRACK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS  
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT  
WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH  
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH  
MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HERE IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS/MOST RECENT  
YEAR SET THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
TODAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY  
SPRINGFIELD 95/1980 96/1953 94/1960  
JOPLIN 98/1980 95/1953 96/1952  
WEST PLAINS 99/1980 97/1953 96/1972  
ROLLA/VICHY 96/1954 97/1953 95/1953  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...WISE  
AVIATION...ALBANO  
CLIMATE...SCHAUMANN  
 
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