569
FXUS63 KSGF 222335
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS SYSTEMS TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FLOOD RISK MAY BECOME APPARENT GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE MO/AR
BORDER.
HIGH 0-1 KM RH, UPWARD OMEGA, IFR CEILINGS, AND A LACK OF CLOUD
ICE HAVE PROMOTED PATCHY DRIZZLE FORMATION THIS MORNING. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH ARKANSAS AND LIFT DECREASES.
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY
RESULT IN SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON;
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SUMMERTIME MCS SEASON CONTINUES:
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK. WITH A BELT OF
ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW AND WARM, MOIST AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE IN ACCURATELY RESOLVING THE
LOCATION AND LONGEVITY OF SUMMERTIME MCSS, THE ENVELOPE IS
UNUSUALLY LARGE EVEN IN THE DAY 1-3 PERIOD, FEATURING
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN THE TIMING, MAGNITUDE, AND
LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORM AND MCS DETAILS.
FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD, INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE IN GROWING THESE STORMS
UPSCALE AND FORMING INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS. BEYOND
THAT, HOWEVER, SOLUTIONS VARY. A GLANCE AT REFS AND HREF
PAINTBALLS REVEALS A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF MEMBERS TENDS TO TRACK
THE MCS THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT A FEW DEPICT A POSSIBLE MCV FORMING AND
PIVOTING TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI, FOLLOWING THE MORE
EASTWARD-POINTING CORFIDI VECTORS. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM TRACK
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS-- PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS-- MAY BECOME
APPARENT. INDEED, SPC HAS OUTLINED SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
IN A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, CITING SIMILAR CONCERNS
IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY
THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (60-85%) AS A
RESULT. FURTHERMORE, HIGH RAIN RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALREADY-SATURATED SOILS WILL POSE
ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
NBM 72-HR RAINFALL PROB EXCEEDANCE WED-FRI:
PROB >1 INCH: 60-90%
PROB >2 INCH: 40-60%
PROB >3 INCH: 20-40%
PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK:
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PATTERN CHANGE MAY FINALLY COME LATE
THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE COUNTY. IN PARTICULAR, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER
CONDITIONS SHOULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS HOWEVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN, ESPECIALLY AT BBG WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO FORM BY 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME MVFR LIKELY AT JLN AND BBG. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT JLN HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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