226  
FNUS71 KILN 021433  
FWSILN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR FERNALD RX...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
933 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON DECEMBER 02.  
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS  
WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SPRINKLES  
LATE IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 28 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........93 89 86 82 84 86 88 90  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0 0 10 10  
TEMP............39 44 47 49 51 51 51 52  
RH..............62 51 47 46 46 48 50 52  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 9 11 10 11 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 14 16 18 17 18 17 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 20 23 21 24 24 24 28  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 29  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 28 TO 35 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........92 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 100 100 100 100  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC LKY DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 20 40 70 80 80 70 40 30  
TEMP............51 50 50 50 51 51 51 51 50 51 51 51  
RH..............59 61 66 71 71 74 80 86 93 93 93 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 13 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 16 18 19 21 21 23 21 21 19 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.31 31 32 33 35 35 35 35 30 30 28 30  
HAINES INDEX....4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY  
SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH IN  
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 31 TO 33 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND  
26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE WEST 22 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING  
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 24 MPH EARLY IN  
THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND  
23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 22 TO 23 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........100 100 92 84 76 67 59 51 44 37 31 24  
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............50 50 46 43 41 40 40 40 40 39 37 35  
RH..............96 93 100 93 82 76 64 57 55 54 56 59  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 14 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 22 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 14 12 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W S NW W S NW S SW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.31 32 33 26 25 22 24 23 23 22 20 17  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
 

 
FORECASTER...NOVAK  
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS STEFANIDES  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2222117.0/ILN  
.DELDT 12/02/22  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL CHRISTOPHER.STEFANIDES@USDA.GOV  
 
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