689  
FNUS71 KRLX 031903  
FWSRLX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MARLINGTON RX BURN PILE...USFS MONONGAHELA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
203 PM EST WED FEB 3 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 EST ON FEBRUARY 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS, UP  
TO 15KTS, OCCURRING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN  
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING WITH A FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. SNOW TO POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS  
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).  
CWR.................10 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 2 MPH.  
ADI.................2 EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........44 59 59 20 29 22 26 35 50 72 83 81  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............14 17 21 24 28 33 38 41 43 43 43 40  
RH..............73 64 56 57 53 49 44 41 38 39 39 44  
20 FT WIND DIR..N W S SW W S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 5 2 2 2 5 6 7 8 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............2 2 M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS  
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING, THEN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 90 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........90 85 85 85 85 85 86 95 95 95 95 95  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF  
WEATHER TYPE.... RS SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............10 20 30 40 50 50 60 70 80 80 90 80  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 40 50 50 60 70 80 80 90 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............38 35 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32  
RH..............50 59 61 66 69 72 75 78 81 85 88 92  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS IN  
THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE  
DAY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.  
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS  
TO AROUND 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 14 MPH.  
LVORI...............MISSING.  
ADI.................MISSING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........95 86 84 82 80 71 68 54 46 38 30 30  
WEATHER COV.....DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....SW SW SW SW RS RS RS RS SW SW SW SW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............80 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 20 20 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 20 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............33 33 33 34 34 34 35 35 34 34 33 31  
RH..............89 92 92 92 92 85 75 69 69 64 63 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S SW SW SW SW W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 5 6 8 10 13 14 14 14 13  
LVORI...........M M M M M M M M M M M M  
ADI.............M M M M M M M M M M M M  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...JLB  
REQUESTED BY...SUSAN GREENLEAF  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2101913.0/RLX  
.DELDT 02/03/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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