590
FXUS61 KILN 081801
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
201 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY. AND THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NARROW RIDGE OVER THE REGION TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID
MS VALLEY PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL DEVELOP WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING ABOVE 2 INCHES. ALSO,
A WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE AROUND 4 KM WHICH SUGGESTS VERY EFFICIENT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE IN PLAY.
CAM SOLUTIONS TO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARCING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION BUT THE MOST FAVORED REGION
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL START MOVING EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO, IMPULSE BEING PROGRESSIVE MAY LESSEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOCUSED
HEAVY RAIN IN ANY ONE LOCATION. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL NEED
TO MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED AWARENESS FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
IN THE WAKE OF ANY POTENTIAL EARLY CONVECTION, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL RISE ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE
RIDGE BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK LIKELY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE DEW POINT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
A VIGOROUS TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SUPPRESS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT
QUITE AS WARM BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. EXPECT
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE PROB30
MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE WINDOW OF GREATEST POTENTIAL.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA - REACHING THE CENTRAL OHIO
TAF SITES LAST.
EXPECT MVFR CLOUDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
A PERIOD OF VFR IS OBSERVED PRIOR TO DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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