492  
FXUS61 KILN 191112  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
712 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR EASTERN  
FORECAST AREA. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
EASTERN HALF OF OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS  
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND  
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO DRIER AND  
WARMER CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STILL OVER THE REGION, WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE WHICH HAD BROUGHT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION IS  
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION, LEAVING MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR  
NOW. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND  
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPROACHES,  
EXPECT INCREASING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A RETURN TO  
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH.  
 
20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLD  
FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING  
NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. EXPECT EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO  
STILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, ACTUALLY ONLY ABOUT 5  
DEGREES FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THAT REGION. WESTERN TWO-  
THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES, WITH  
THE FAR NW HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 40S AS STRONG CAA  
BEGINS TO SETTLE IN, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL  
FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
EVENING BEGINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS  
THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION.  
 
WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND CUT OFF H5 LOW OVER THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TN VALLEY REGIONS, PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND  
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO MODERATE TO  
SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS TO  
25-30MPH ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
LOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA CONTINUES IN THE  
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, WHICH BRINGS THE  
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR WESTERN AREA. NO ACCUMULATION  
EXPECTED WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPS.  
 
THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL EAST/NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW WILL  
COME CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 MPH, PLENTY OF SHOWERS  
WRAPPING AROUND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID 40S WEST TO NEAR 50  
EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER ERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING  
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIP INTO THE  
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT, PULLING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST WITH  
IT. LINGERED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THE FORECAST OUT. ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL BE  
ON THE DECREASE AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE  
FROM THE LOWER 60S EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE  
CINCY TRI-STATE.  
 
H5 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WORKS IN LATE  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE  
REGION ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,  
WHILE ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT OF  
TEMPERATURE, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER  
70S IN NRN KY.  
 
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT IS  
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM,  
THEREFORE THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IS HOW MUCH PCPN LINGERS INTO  
WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND THAT KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE IN  
THE SOUTH.  
 
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS  
IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA,  
SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN  
CEILINGS MOSTLY IFR BUT OCCASIONALLY BOUNCING TO MVFR WITH  
SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING OF THESE CHANGES VERY DIFFICULT.  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS, WITH  
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS OCCUR.  
 
WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,  
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE  
REGION TONIGHT, WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP IN  
THE 18Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JDR  
NEAR TERM...JDR  
SHORT TERM...JDR  
LONG TERM...SITES  
AVIATION...JDR  
 
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