868
FXUS61 KILN 121835
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
235 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT
AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ACROSS PRIMARILY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE OF
STORMS AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY COOLER AIR WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION. THIS COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CIGS WILL LOWER, HOWEVER EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
BY AROUND DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR
KCMH, KLCK, OR KILN ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SHIFT WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. CU ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, SOME OF
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE MVFR.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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