833
FXUS61 KILN 090555
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
3) A WEAK SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BRINGING RAINFALL INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL
THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING
TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE NBM KEEPS RAINFALL VALUES
RANGING FROM AROUND A HALF INCH TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO GET OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THERE
ARE MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES. EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO GET AN INCH AND A HALF TO OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN, THE
RAIN WILL BE MORE STEADY INSTEAD OF COMING IN A SHORT DURATION. DUE
TO THIS ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MORE
LOCALIZED AND LOWER END. CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
TO GO 90TH PERCENTILE NBM FOR WIND GUSTS WHICH ALLOWS FOR WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS VALUES WOULD BE
SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AT KLUK.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS AT KILN.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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