887
FXUS61 KILN 230253
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
953 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
FCST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE TEMP TRACES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE INFILTRATION OF THICKER CIRRUS SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING TEMPS JUST A BIT WARMER, BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.
THIS BEING SAID, SOME SITES IN THE EAST, PARTICULARLY AT NEWARK
AND LANCASTER, HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 20S. OUTSIDE
THE FAR NORTHEAST ILN FA, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES, WITH LOW TO MID 20S
FOR A FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD COMPLETELY OVERCAST SKIES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD DESPITE A FEW
RETURNS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY JUST OFF TO THE WEST. A
FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR SHOULD STUNT PCPN CHANCES LOCALLY
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT CLOSE
TO THE BLEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN, HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES RISE, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN AS WELL NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STACKED SLOW MOVING LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO MIGRATE EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT FRIDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA A
MIX WITH SNOW WILL BE PSBL FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND FREEZING, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT AND LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON ROADS. CLOUDS/PCPN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST.
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE
FROM 35 TO 40.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS
ON TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION
WITH NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OFFER SUPPORT FOR A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.
THEREFORE, WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATER WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THICKENING CIRRUS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA WITH
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID SATURATING OF THE LOW LEVELS
FROM THE SOUTH, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -RA AS
WELL, WITH KCVG AND KLUK LIKELY TO SEE SOME PCPN IMPACTING THE
SITES TOWARD/BEYOND 00Z. HEAVIER RATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS BEYOND THE END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LIGHT ESE WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL GO MORE SOUTHERLY BY 18Z BEFORE
GOING BACK MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
MAINLY STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 06Z FRIDAY WITH NOSING OF A LLJ NORTHEAST
AROUND THE BROADER-SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE DECIDED TO
OMIT FROM KCVG 30-HR TAF FOR NOW UNTIL SPECIFICS ON LOCATION AND
TIMING BECOME A BIT MORE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...KC/NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC
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