710  
FXUS61 KILN 161935  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT  
AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
IT WILL REMAIN HUMID THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH HOT CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE DOME OF HEAT  
DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. OUTSIDE  
OF RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF THE REST OF THE  
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS THE  
REMNANTS OF BARRY MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. HIGH PWATS WILL BRING  
THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE  
SOME APPRECIABLE STORM MOTION. CONCERN WILL BE WHERE STORMS  
LINE UP OVER THE SAME REGION DEPENDING ON THE MEAN STEERING  
FLOW WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. THIS  
IS COVERED IN THE LATEST HWO. IN ADDITION, ANY SEVERE THREAT  
SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE WIND GUST  
DUE TO PCPN LOADING, WHICH WILL BE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
THIS EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST (ALLOWING  
CORES TO REACH THERE PEAK HEIGHT). THIS IS ALSO COVERED IN THE  
HWO AS WELL. THE HAIL THREAT IS MINIMAL DUE TO HIGH FREEZING  
LEVEL, SKINNY-LIKE CAPES, AND RELATIVELY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES. HAVE GONE WITH COVERAGE/LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT AS LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING  
DISTURBANCE WORK IN TANDEM. OVERALL THUNDER THREAT SHOULD  
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON  
WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, PCPN COVERAGE WILL  
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE REGION STARTS TO BECOME MORE  
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN, HIGH PWATS (2 INCHES PLUS),  
WCDS, SKINNY CAPES, AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL MAKE  
COLLISION/COALESCENCE FAVORABLE WITH WARM CORE CENTROIDS. EVENT  
SO, OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON A LARGER SCALE SHOULD BE HELD IN  
CHECK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED THREATS FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING.  
THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. IT WILL BE  
HUMID, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK  
AND UPCOMING WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. HIGHS WILL WARM  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO  
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN  
PCPN COVERAGE/THREAT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL  
BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF BARRY WILL BE  
EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS A  
LITTLE LINGERING INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY TO KEEP A 20 POP IN THE  
FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA. WARM AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S  
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS WOULD PUSH THE HEAT INDEX OVER  
100 DEGREES.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE H5 RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD NORTH.  
THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD AND PEAK FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE MID 90S AND  
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S, PRODUCING HEAT INDICES AROUND 105.  
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH, BUT WILL KEEP  
THE MENTION IN THE HWO.  
 
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO LOWER SUNDAY AS THE H5  
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO  
THE REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH THE FRONT  
IN THE AREA.  
 
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY, BUT LINGERING  
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD  
COVER AND CONVECTION.  
 
BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL  
BE BRINGING LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE REMNANTS OF BARRY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS,  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ASCENT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON, WITH MAINLY NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE AS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY  
WANES. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR,  
WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES OF LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER  
DOWNPOURS. CAN NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THESE LOW CONDITIONS  
JUST YET AT THE TERMINALS, BUT HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR  
CONDITIONS WITH EITHER SHOWERS OR STORMS TO OCCUR LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS WILL  
LOWER AS THE AIRMASS COOLS AND SATURATES WITH IFR CEILINGS  
EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF BARRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.  
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS  
WELL. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE  
FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY AS THE  
REGION EVENTUALLY FINDS ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. IFR  
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH  
THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING PREDOMINATE BETWEEN 21Z  
WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...HICKMAN  
AVIATION...HICKMAN  
 
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