990
FXUS61 KILN 201725
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
2) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND WITH PWS STILL IN THE
1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE, THIS IS WHERE THE CONCERN FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA HAS
NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH RAIN AS THE REST OF OUR AREA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THOUGH AND WITH 1HR FFG CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES, HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN FFA ATTM.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THIS DRYING MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/WAVE PIVOTS UP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS, A 30-40 KNOT 850 MB JET
WILL ROTATE UP THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITIES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MARGINAL AT BEST DURING THIS
TIME SO THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, STILL
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. PWS WILL AGAIN BUMP UP INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE
SO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BROAD, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN SOME MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE REGION.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE
SOUTH. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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