903
FXUS61 KILN 020009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED TEMPERATURES FROM NBM AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM NBM THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDED SEVERE
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS
SOUTH OF DAYTON TO COLUMBUS WILL REACH CRITERIA ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER
WITH THIS BEING FURTHER OUT IN TIME AND WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTIES HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY EXPANSION AND KEPT MENTION IN
THE HWO. TOMORROW HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
THURSDAY THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION DUE TO GREATER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. NBM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON
PRECIPITATION SIGNATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE MORE
LIMITED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE ARE MUCH BETTER CHANCES THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
OHIO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING IF MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE, HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TRI-
STATE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK. ACTIVE BAND OF
WESTERLIES STAYS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LESS CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM MAKING IT INTO THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND HEIGHT
RISES ARE OBSERVED.
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK OVERNIGHT. FOG IMPROVES QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT ONLY FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AR
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