828  
FXUS61 KILN 071050  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
650 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION  
DRY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD BACK  
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER EARLY  
THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG  
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME  
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S WITH THE BETTER  
INSTABILITY REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SOME WEAK  
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR  
FAR SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT MORE  
TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A SURFACE  
WAVE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN  
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY  
ON FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE  
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEEPER SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT  
WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT  
GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN  
THREAT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWS  
WILL ALSO PUSH UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S NORTH  
TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FROPA REMAINS  
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIMEFRAME, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER  
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH  
PWATS, INSTABILITY, AND A LLJ WITH FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE NOSE  
COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG OR  
SOUTH OF I-70. IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF  
MESOSCALE BANDING AS THE EVENT COMES IN RANGE, FLOOD HEADLINES COULD  
BE CONSIDERED AS MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT BRINGING RELATIVELY COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE NEAR  
80. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO  
DOMINATE THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.  
 
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK. HOT, AND MORE HUMID, CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES  
AROUND MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OF  
OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT  
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE  
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. AS A RESULT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE  
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KLUK WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR TO IFR FOG  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AN  
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY  
ON FRIDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE  
30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...JGL  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL  
AVIATION...JGL  
 
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