652
FXUS61 KILN 141701
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRI-STATE THROUGH EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS STRETCH.
2) A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING/DIGGING MIDLEVEL TROF WILL PIVOT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR AND OH VLYS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS RAPIDLY-DEEPENING MIDLEVEL TROF
TRANSLATES E INTO THE REGION, IT WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW, SUGGESTING
THE EVOLUTION OF A /VERY/ DYNAMIC SYSTEM, PROMPTING THE ENHANCEMENT
OF LL AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS (H5 JET STREAK OF
~125KTS) WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, THE ILN FA BECOMES FIRMLY POSITIONED IN
THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR, WITH DEEP/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN MIXING
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE RAIN/STORMS/BETTER MOISTURE STILL WELL TO THE W.
THE BEST OVERLAP OF DEEP MIXING AND THE STRONGER PART OF THE LLJ (H8
~60KTS AND H9 ~40KTS) WILL LIKELY EVOLVE IN PARTS OF EC IN AND WC
OH, AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR/WEST OF I-71/I-75 INTO FAR NORTHERN KY.
ALTHOUGH WAA PATTERNS TYPICALLY DON/T RESULT IN THE SAME GUSTINESS
THAT A CAA REGIME OR TIGHT PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET, DEEP ENOUGH
MIXING WITH THE POTENT LLJ SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS NEAR/IN EXCESS OF
40KTS FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 45KTS TO BRIEFLY EVOLVE FROM EC IN
THROUGH WC OH DURING THE HEART OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONGER
LLJ WILL BE LOCATED DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING. THIS
MIXING/GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF VERY BRIEFLY TOWARD/BEYOND SUNSET WITH
THE DECREASE IN MIXING, BUT SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
THE STRONGEST/MOST EXPANSIVE LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A
CONCERNING SIGNAL FOR A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF HIGH-LEVEL ADVISORY
WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY NEAR/W OF
I-71. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE N/NW/W 2/3 OF
THE ILN FA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTINESS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN 36 HOURS OUT, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING MAINTENANCE OF A NARROWING AXIS OF INSTBY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CERTAINLY
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A THIN CORRIDOR OF SB-INSTBY MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE LOCAL AREA PAST MIDNIGHT AS THE FORCING/LIFT INCREASES
RATHER DRAMATICALLY/ABRUPTLY. A BAND OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER, WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TO THE E
INTO/THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z-08Z MONDAY, WITH A
SMALL WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE ACTIVITY IF THE SB-INSTBY IS ABLE
TO NOSE FAR ENOUGH E INTO THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO ROBUST SFC MOISTURE
ADVECTION. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INSTBY MAY BE PINCHED
OFF JUST TO THE W OF THE LOCAL AREA AS BL/SFC MOISTURE POOL REMAINS
A BIT MORE MEAGER LOCALLY COMPARED TO UPSTREAM ACROSS IL/IN/MO/WRN
KY. IF, AND IT IS A BIG IF, SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ARE
ABLE TO ADVECT IN JUST AHEAD OF THE NARROW SQUALL LINE AS THE STRONG
FRONT APPROACHES AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY, THERE WOULD END UP
BEING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A H9 LLJ OF ABOUT 50KTS AND A
H8 LLJ OF ABOUT 70KTS SURGING IN COINCIDENT WITH THE NARROW
CONVECTIVE LINE, SO ANY DEGREE OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD BE CAUSE
FOR CONCERN. IF THIS OCCURS, IT WOULD BE FAVORED NEAR/WEST OF I-75,
WITH EVEN LESS POTENTIAL FOR SB INSTBY TO DEVELOP FURTHER E OF THIS
AREA. BUT THESE DETAILS ARE STILL NOT YET IN FOCUS AT THIS JUNCTURE,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PROSPECT OF MIXING OUT SOME OF THE BL MOISTURE
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS.
THE TIME/SPATIAL WINDOW FOR SUFFICIENT/SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE/BL
THERMODYNAMICS (AND SEVERE THREAT) IS RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT
POTENTIALLY QUITE CONCERNING IF REALIZED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED
TO BE WATCHED CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE/DEPTH OF THE VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS THAT WILL BE IN PLAY. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT, LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE ROBUST
LL AND DEEP-LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ELONGATED/CURVED
HODOGRAPHS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA, POTENTIALLY EVEN LEADING TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. MOREOVER, THERE IS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN GUSTS NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 35KTS DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY AS LL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS INTO
THE OH VLY. COINCIDING WITH THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHSN AS SOME MOISTURE/LIFT MAY PERSIST WITHIN THE
DEEPENING/LOWERING DGZ INTO THE DAYTIME MONDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
AN INCREDIBLY DEEP/POTENT PV ANOMALY DIGS INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING
PLENTY OF FORCING TO MAINTAIN SOME SHSN ACTIVITY INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHETHER THIS SHSN ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE ISO OR ENDS UP
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE, A RAPID DROP (POTENTIALLY 30
DEGREES IN JUST 6 HOURS) IS EXPECTED NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY, LEAVING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
STRONG CAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE MONDAY,
WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME, EVEN AFTER THE
RAPID DROP EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS
CAA WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AREA-WIDE BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S TUESDAY BEFORE AGAIN DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE RECENT WARM STRETCH,
THIS MAGNITUDE AND PERSISTENCE OF LATE-SEASON COLD MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR SENSITIVE VEGETATION, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE IN THE
EARLY STAGES OF BLOOMING. WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 40S,
BUT AGAIN THIS IS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST AND THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE ADJUSTED AS TIME MOVES FORWARD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. SOME VFR CU IS POSSIBLE
AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
A STRENGTHENING SSW LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 45KTS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
SOME LLWS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY 15Z, DEEPENING LL
MIXING AND STEEPENING LL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO COMMENCE, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS TOWARD 18Z AND BEYOND. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KTS, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40-45KTS, ARE LIKELY TOWARD/BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077>080.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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