659
FXUS61 KILN 142346
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
746 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS ENDED THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS ENDED THIS EVENING.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.
3) SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT EARLIER HAS BEEN CANCELED. A COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA, AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (20-25
MPH) THROUGH SUNSET, AND WHILE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL PERSIST. THIS AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BEHIND
THE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS A LOW FILLS TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS
SURFACE LOW.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL NOT RESOLVED, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO INVOLVES A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
STRONG WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY LOOKS
PROBABLE ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS. IF CONDITIONS DO END
COMING TOGETHER, MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK. FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS
AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN THE WPC SLIGHT RISK IN THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS THE TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER.
REGARDLESS OF STORM POTENTIAL, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED. GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE
UNTIL 01Z-02Z, THEN GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR, AM NOT
EXPECTING FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP/CAMPBELL
AVIATION...BPP
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