804
FXUS61 KILN 071402
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1002 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AREA-WIDE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MIDWEEK AND EXTEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PLUME OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY DISRUPT SOME
OF THE EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THUS, HAVE
MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. FROST DEVELOPMENT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH AND SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 5-10MPH, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FREEZE COULD STILL HARM SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THAT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT
OVERHEAD OF US TO START THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS TO START THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP WITH SOME
ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE CWA WILL BE AT RISK OF OBSERVING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES YET
AGAIN. ADDITIONAL FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED GIVEN THIS
SIGNAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AFTER THE POTENTIAL FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING, A RAPID CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS THAT WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. BROAD, H5 RIDGING
AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAINING FIRMLY PLANTED UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. RISING HEIGHTS
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN AN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR MASS FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY SUNDAY, THE ILN FA MAY OBSERVE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 80S YET AGAIN, WHICH WOULD BE ~20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THAT PARTICULAR DAY.
DURING THIS SEASONABLY WARM STRETCH, PWATS REMAIN QUITE DRY IN OUR
CWA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THESE LOWER PWATS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WE MAY OBSERVE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT, BUT OTHERWISE, THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD IS FAVORED TO BE DRY.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY BEFORE
CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY, STARTING NNE THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING TO VEER TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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