156
FXUS61 KILN 102348
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT,
WITH SOME RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY RECOVER WITH MLCAPES
NOW BACK UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, BUT INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IF WE ARE
ABLE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
PWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TONIGHT.
THUS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WERE DEVELOPING IN A
REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE. AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT. THIS FITS THE
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS ON FRIDAY
BECOME EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page