964
FXUS61 KILN 211811
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
211 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHER WITH POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN PERSISTENT MOIST, SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE INITIAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, HELPING TO LIFT A WARM FRONT UP INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT OVER
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WHILE ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY
ELEVATED, SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY MAKE ITS WAY UP
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS BEING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FEW ROTATING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH, WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE, WITH
PWS AGAIN PUSHING UP TOWARD 1.8 INCHES OR SO, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER/TRAINING STORMS. WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS MORE MOIST AFTER THE LAST FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN, FLOODING
ISSUES MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH OUR AREA GETTING MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST MAY ALLOW
FOR A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT BACK
TO OUR WEST. WITH CONTINUED GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS, EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. VARIOUS
MODELS ARE TRYING TO PULL SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UP INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN COVERAGE. IF THIS DOES
MATERIALIZE, WE COULD HAVE AT LEAST A LOWER END SEVERE THREAT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WOULD ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS OUR SOUTH
TRENDING INTO VFR.
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES, MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD THE TAF
SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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