077
FXUS61 KILN 301038
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE NEXT CREDIBLE RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TWO IMPRESSIVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, PROVIDING A STEADY SUPPLY OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR, WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE WELL ADVERTISED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ARRIVES LATE IN
THE WEEK, WITH RENEWED RAINFALL CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE FIRST TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST US AND OFF THE EAST
COAST TODAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING THROUGH NORTHEAST
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING, MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE FRONT IS DRY SO THE ONLY OBVIOUS FEATURE TO INDICATE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS. THE AIR MAY ALSO
FEEL A BIT COOLER AND DRIER WITH LOWER THETA-E AIR ADVECTING IN.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, AND A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE SECOND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL BE
DIGGING SOUTHWARD, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AIR WITH A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO
THE 80S ON THURSDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER PERSISTS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO ARE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
ALL SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ABOVE
10 KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS LESSON SOME OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF
THE TAF. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER ON SUNDAY, NORTHEASTERLY AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
AY
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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