517
FXUS61 KILN 021645
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. HONING IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RECORD HIGH MINS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CHANGES WX PATTERN TO COOL
AND DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
3) TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING MARK MONDAY NIGHT AND STAND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 2-3 DEG OF
RECORD HIGHS. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE 2-5 DEG
ABOVE RECORD HIGH MINS. THIS FORECAST SEEMS PRETTY SOLID AS A WARM
FRONT WILL BE MOVING NE AND WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT.
MEAN TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAXING OUT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT. OVERNIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 10-15 MPH SPEED WHICH IS DIURNALLY ANOMALOUS.
WINDS BACK OFF FRIDAY EVENING TO UNDER 8 MPH, BUT THEN PICK BACK UP
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A REMNANT COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OH DURING
THE DAY WEAKENING AS IT DIPS TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR, EVOLVING INTO
A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT TONIGHT NORTH OF CWA, WITH SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPS ALOFT APPROACH DEWPOINTS AT
VARIOUS LEVELS. SAT WILL BE DRY AS WARM AIR MIXES OUT ANY HUMIDITY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WITH IT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE LATE DAY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3 OF THE
CWA, AND PROGRESS FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST CWA A LITTLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT, AND IN THE SOUTHEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
COLDER WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF FROST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EARLIER DISCUSSION NOTED WINDS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THESE TEMPS
MATERIALIZING. ATTM, LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS, BUT NOT LIKELY AREA-
WIDE. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME WIND 5-10 MPH, BUT WILL
BECOMING FROM ALMOST DUE NORTH AND TEMPS FOR THIS TIME WILL BE PURELY
ADVECTION BASED.
TO FURTHER BOLSTER WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING, THE NBM
10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES HAVE A 6-7 DEG SPREAD AND OPERATIONAL LOW
TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COLD SIDE. THE 5TH/95TH PERCENTILES OPEN THIS
RANGE BY A BIT, SLIGHTLY COOLER BY A DEGREE OR TWO BUT WARMER BY 3-4
DEGREES. AS THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED, THIS SUPPORTS
THE ARGUMENT FOR LEANING TO THE COLDER SOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT 10-12KT WITH GUSTS 20KT. SOME LLWS COULD BE
PRESENT AS 50KT JET LOWERS TO 2KFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS S/W ENERGY OUTPACES THE COLD FRONT THAT IS DYING OUT
NORTHWEST OF OHIO. DID NOT HIT THESE HARD AT ALL AS THE SCATTERED
NATURE MAKES FOR NEBULOUS PLACING/TIMING. AT THE TAIL END OF THE CVG
FORECAST, SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MORE LIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT
NORTH OF THE CWA BUT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION, FED BY A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST SW WIND. CIGS ALSO LOOK
TO DROP TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY,
AND LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COINCIDENT
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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