134  
FXUS61 KILN 150220  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1020 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS  
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT  
SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD  
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG  
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S,  
WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY  
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
TO ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAKENING  
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE  
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A  
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THIS ACROSS OUR NORTH  
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MODERATING AIRMASS ON SUNDAY  
WILL HELP HIGHS PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
LONG TERM STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST, AND A  
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROPICAL  
SYSTEM HUMBERTO CHURNS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER  
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS SLOW TO EVOLVE PATTERN.  
 
FOR MONDAY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT FROM A SMALL PACKET OF  
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE. WE CAN THEN ANTICIPATE  
GREATLY DIMINISHED FORCING AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED  
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY, WHEN  
GRADUALLY FALLING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING FRONT MAY  
ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE POINT TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY, 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO BUILD SLOWLY  
EAST TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. BAND OF SCATTERED MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF RIVER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. THIS WILL FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT KLUK WITH IFR VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS LATE.  
 
EXPECT THE FOG TO IMPROVE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...AR  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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