111
FXUS61 KILN 111710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE REMNANTS OF A MCS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG
WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT. WHILE THE OLD MCS ITSELF WILL NOT PRODUCE
ANY RAINFALL, SUBTLE AREAS OF CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
COULD LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE PBL
DESTABILIZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
LATER THIS EVENING, ANOTHER DECAYING MCS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF THE MCS HOLDS
TOGETHER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND HIGH DCAPE VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
IN TERMS OF HEAT, SOME CLOUD COVER HAS INITIALLY LIMITED TEMPERATURES
TODAY AS THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AN OLD MCS HAS MOVED OVERHEAD. THESE
CLOUDS PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SOME MORE SUNSHINE. COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD SUPPORT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN CANADA PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW FAR TO THE NORTH IN CANADA MOVES
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SOME MODELS
ARE DEPICTING INSTABILITY OVERLAPPING WITH INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS LATER IN
THE DAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FEATURING SOME CUMULUS GROWTH IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT THE TAF
SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, A DECAYING MCS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
SUPPORTS SHOWER AND STORMS POTENTIAL AT KDAY AND THE CINCINNATI
SITES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD KILN AND THE
COLUMBUS SITES OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL IMPACTS MAINLY
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 1400Z, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 1200Z FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT BRIEF WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MCS MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER 1200Z, A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page