103
FXUS61 KILN 042315
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS LED TO RAIN COOLED AIR DROPPING HEAT
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STORMS POSSIBLY DROPPING
SOUTH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
IF A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FAILS TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, LOW-LEVEL JET DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
THROUGHOUT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. THIS IS TYPICALLY FOUND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP
SATURDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN DEVELOP WITH
THE RENEWED ENERGY. RIGHT NOW, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SOUTHEAST INDIANA, SOUTHWEST
OHIO, NORTHERN KENTUCKY). A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WOULD ONCE AGAIN
EXIST WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO. THE
RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THE ULTIMATE IMPACTS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE UNCERTAIN.
WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER REPEATEDLY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AFTERNOON ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER
0600Z ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE COLUMBUS SITES TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASES AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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