269
FXUS61 KILN 081030
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK TROUGH SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. RICH
MOISTURE IS ALSO SUPPLYING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECTATIONS INTO
SUNRISE ARE THAT THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK BOUNDARY, MOST NOTICEABLE BY VIEWING THETA-E
VALUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS, GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AND
MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE PRESENT, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE ULTIMATE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO FOCUS MORE
EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH A DESTABILIZED AIR MASS. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN IT WAS DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
SHIFTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO BRINGS A RENEWED
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ALOFT, A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA WILL SUPPLY A STEADY STREAM OF PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT LASTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INITIATE MULTIPLE EPISODES OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE BROADER REGION. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THIS
SCENARIO, DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES OR DECREASES DEPENDING ON
THE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION THE PREVIOUS DAY. FUTURE SPC OUTLOOKS WILL
ALSO SHIFT AROUND AS A RESULT. FOR NOW, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE
THE DAYS TO WATCH, WITH THE POTENTIAL DECREASING LATER IN THE WEEK
AS THE TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR.
THE EXACT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY, BUT
ONE OR MULTIPLE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS, FLASH FLOODING RELATED TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL IMPACT. THE HWO REMAINS BROAD
WITH THE OVERALL WORDING, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND SOME LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEVELOPING PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS.
WILL MAINTAIN THIS IMPACT IN LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE CIG HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE MVFR LEVELS BY 14-15Z. WINDS ARE
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KNOTS TODAY, OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST- SOUTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. THEREFORE, UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES, HAVE LIMITED THE
POTENTIAL USING PROB30S FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.
FOR CVG, WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWER
THAN PROB30 POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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