373
FXUS61 KILN 051848
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON
SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF A LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING, WITH SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN VA SLOWLY PULLING EAST. LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
WANE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SOME VALLEY FOG MAINLY IN NE KY
AND AREAS OF THE SCIOTO/HOCKING/LICKING VALLEYS. MUGGY OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 70.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE NW FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF
DAYTON. SO THERE IS EXPECTATION OF A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERN OHIO, SE INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY LOCATIONS TO REACH 100 HEAT INDEX VALUES WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SPARSE AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS
LINGER. CAMS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AND
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SOME MODELS HINTING AT MID
LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH FROM
THE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. IF THIS PATTERN PERSISTS,
MAY HAVE TO BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE TRI STATE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY, STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH
EASTERN INDIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW WET THE WEEK WILL BE BUT IN
THE LEAST, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES START OFF HOT ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE POOLS
AGAINST THE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DOWNBURST AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL RETURNING TO THE AREA. MEAN FLOW OF
10-15 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER TIME,
BUT BACKBUILDING SETUPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL FASTER TO PUSH MOISTURE
SOUTHWARD, LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE GEFS IS A BIT SLOWER, KEEPING RAINFALL
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. NBM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH THE GEFS FASTER WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL QUITE DRY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST IS LIKELY
TO CHANGE (HIGHER OR LOWER POPS) OVER THE COMING DAYS.
BY THURSDAY, A DEEPER TROUGH DIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
INCREASING POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GEFS BRINGING
A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES (WETTER SOLUTION FOR LOCAL
AREA) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DIPPING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS (DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA).
OVERALL, MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. IF THE
DRIER SOLUTION WORKS OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED VFR CU
TODAY WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z, AND A LITTLE MORE CU ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AGAIN OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP TO NEAR 05-10KTS ACROSS
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS 10-12Z AT KLUK.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ046-055-056-065-
070-071-077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...JDR
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