941
FXUS61 KILN 022335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
735 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE OF EXTREME HEAT THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, IT IS POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX COULD
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEL DCAPE
NEAR 1,600 J/KG (BASED ON 12Z HRRR), DOWNBURST DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BY SATURDAY, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM LATE FRIDAY
CONVECTION COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE. FOR THIS
REASON, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP HEAT HEADLINES ENDING FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NOW. WILL MONITOR UPDATED GUIDANCE MOVING FORWARD AND ADJUST AS
NEEDED. EITHER WAY, MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH
JULY FOURTH, SO THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PLAN FOR THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME REDUCED
VSBYS AT KCVG, KLUK, KILN, AND KLCK. OTHERWISE HAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE TAF SITES. CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CU ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR A PROB30 TOWARD THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ042-043-051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ074.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...08
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