194
FXUS61 KILN 171053
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN AREAL EXTENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
2) ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EASING A BIT THEREAFTER,
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL SETTLE IN.
3) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG AN EAST-WEST FRONT
THAT IS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS IS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 4
KM, VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS ARE OCCURRING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAKS OF HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER DAYBREAK WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. BUT A SHORT WAVE EXITING
IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION GIVING SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AS WELL AS TRENDS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE,
HAVE OPTED TO TRIM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WATCH. THIS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO, BUT STILL WANTED TO LEAVE A BUFFER
IN CASE ACTIVITY SAGS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY UNLESS CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THERE. THE END RESULT
IS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE SIMILAR WITH VALUES APPROACHING 100
ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL GET INTO NORTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT IT WILL STILL BE HUMID IN THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RECOVERY OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
WITH HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND COOLER EACH DAY HEADING INTO MID WEEK BY WHICH TIME
READINGS AREA FORECAST CLOSER TO NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF
THE RETROGRADING MID LEVEL HIGH TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z. THERE WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. 0Z HEFS
IS A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE REFS IN SHOWING SOME HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT THEN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
SAG INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE MID LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE
THROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRINGING A RETURN
OF THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AT LEAST
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
THE FRONT PASSES SOUTH AGAIN AND EVENTUALLY GETS FURTHER FROM THE
AREA.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT A COUPLE OF SITES WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT KCMH
COULD GET SHOWERS EARLY, BUT BEYOND THEN THE TERMINALS WILL BE DRY
PAST 0Z WITH JUST SOME VFR CUMULUS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND HAVE TRIED TO FOCUS THE
PROB30 ON A WINDOW THAT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE, ALTHOUGH THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THAT PERIOD. WITH AND
AFTER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR. A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 14Z AND INCREASE,
BUT TO NO MORE THAN 10 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH TOWARDS 00Z
AND BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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