738
FXUS61 KILN 141802
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
202 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- DELAYED ANY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WITH EPISODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OHIO, WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM IOWA ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTH. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE DRIED UP ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON... LIKELY BASED ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE DECAYING
SHOWERS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER, A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE A NON-ZERO RISK OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON AS 1500 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPS. MAIN RISK IS
GENERALLY FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN EML MOVING INTO OUR WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES THIS EVENING, WITH ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING INTO THIS AREA AFTER 8PM, PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS DAYTON.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LOW (LESS THAN 25 KNOTS) THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME INCREASE TO THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE AFTER
SUNSET WHEN A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ FORMS.
IF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING, MAIN RISK WOULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTIES TO
THE NORTH AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS DEPEND ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION
AS DISTURBANCES SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE AN HWO MENTION OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASE IN POPS. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING 30-40
KNOTS OF SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
ANOMALOUS WARMTH WILL END AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY. CAA AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, FROST MAY BECOME A CONCERN THIS NIGHT.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THIS UPDATE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MEMBERS OF THE HREF SHOW A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AS VARIOUS
MEMBERS DEVELOP LINEAR CLUSTERS OF STORMS AT DIFFERENT TIMES OVER
DIFFERENT AREAS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR WITH PROB30 GROUPS
DURING TIME PERIODS WITH SOME MODICUM OF CONSENSUS.
WILL BE POISED TO AMEND AS BETTER DETAIL BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE MAIN
IDEA IS FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION FORMING
OVER ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BEYOND THIS,
A FEW CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO NOT INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THESE LATER CLUSTERS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE A BIT TONIGHT WITH LLWS
DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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