519
FXUS61 KILN 202053
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
353 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY PERIOD, THOUGH ACTIVITY
TO THE SOUTH MAY ENCROACH TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST
AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE CWA AND REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A H5 S/W AND
WILL MAKE A STEADY PROGRESSION TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, AND
SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING, LIMITING ANY CONTINUED
THREAT OF FLOODING TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE CWA AND FOCUSED IN EASTERN TN. SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED, AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
FULLY EXPECT THE FLOOD WATCH TO BE DROPPED THIS EVENING ONCE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN CROSSES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN
A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOP BUT THEN THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM WILL HAVE HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN FROM KY IN THE LATE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 ON THURSDAY
AND DROP TO THE MID 20S NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO AROUND
FREEZING OVER KY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD MOVES EAST, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. A WARM FRONT
WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. OVERRUNNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON
SATURDAY. A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
INSTABILITY DECREASING FURTHER EAST AND LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
STILL A BIT OUT IN TIME, BUT THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD THREAT ELEVATED. LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION WHERE HIGHS COULD
END UP BEING SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION BUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
FALLING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO RECOVERY AS A
SECONDARY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. STRONG MIXING IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ROBUST WINDS/WIND GUSTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR CIGS IN SOME DRIZZLE AND MVFR MIST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING BY. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE PASSAGE
OF A LOW LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER S/W CROSSES, AND LLWS OF 40-45KT
IS EXPECTED AROUND 2KFT.
BULK OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON, AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND MORESO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...CONTINUING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ073-074-079>082-
088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS
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