008
FXUS61 KILN 292357
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED DRY STRETCH WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK. EACH
DAY, HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY CLIMB, PRESENTING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
GROWING HEAT STRESS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
BEFORE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA, STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE TROUGH, A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SEES DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS UPDATE, THE FORECAST IS DRY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A DEEP RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
WITH IMPRESSIVE 594DM HEIGHTS ENCROACHING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. IF
THIS HEAT DOME VERIFIES, IT WOULD REACH ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. WHENEVER THESE HIGHER VALUES
OCCUR ALOFT, THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RESPOND. LOW TO MID 90S
ARE TO BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN HOW
LONG THE RIDGE HOLDS DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TRIES TO SHUNT THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THURSDAY IS CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE NEXT DECENT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR NOW, HEAT HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE MOISTURE
REBOUNDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK AND INTO THE PEAK OF THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS
HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION TO MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT
KLUK LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY WITH DECAYING
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE
NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AND
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...AR
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