826
FXUS61 KILN 261058
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
658 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
2) HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. LOWS MOVING FROM ABOVE NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WARM FRONT NEAR THE TENNESSEE-KENTUCKY BORDER TO START THE PERIOD
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TODAY, NOT QUITE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
BUT IT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALL, MOSTLY LIKELY
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF I-70 BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH, BUT NOT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARDS TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP IN OVERRUNNING. EXPECT PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY, BUT AS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION GETS FURTHER NORTH, AND
THEREFORE FURTHER FROM THE LIFT, IT WILL DIMINISH.
SOME SPOTTY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, BUT SHOWERS WILL
REALLY BLOSSOM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS JET WILL BE MAKING A TURN
WITH WINDS STARTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING WESTERLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS CHANGE IN ORIENTATION WILL
DECREASE CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
NEW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE INCREASING TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE APPROACHING 4 KM. SO EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES MAY BE IN PLAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUALLY BEING FAVORED IN A WEST-EAST ZONE,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IN ANY ONE
LOCATION. WITH SOILS BEING FAIRLY WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THERE
IS SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING. THE HREF SHOWS THE AREA OF GREATER
PRECIPITATION FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO. THE REFS
IS NOT AS FOCUSED SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN ITS
MEMBERS, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RRFS HAS A SIMILAR LOOK TO THE HREF.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS THERE IS A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH THANKS TO THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DECREASE A BIT, SO PERHAPS A SOMEWHAT LESSENED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US. SHORT WAVE THAT INITIATES THIS
TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRIMARY CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE THAT IT IS
DRIER. SO DIURNAL RANGES WILL INCREASE.
HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MILD LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL THEN DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE REGION TO START. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTHWARDS TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AFTER 17Z. THERE WILL BE A LULL TOWARDS 00Z WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR. BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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