071
FXUS61 KILN 021725
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL
ENSUE, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE
H5 RIDGE PORTION OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS THAT WE WILL FINALLY OBSERVE SOME MODIFICATIONS
IN THIS OMEGA BLOCK, ALLOWING FOR AN H5 TROUGH TO PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN TO THE FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE INITIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH, SUGGESTING THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
AFTER THE H5 TROUGH EJECTS TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYNOPTIC TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN IMPACT FOR TODAY
WILL BE THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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