437
FXUS61 KILN 051054
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW TOTALS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW ON FRIDAY.
2) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND/WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING SOME WARMER AIR IN AT THE LOW LEVELS COMPARED THE THE NAM.
EVEN WITH THAT THOUGH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP PCPN MOSTLY SNOW, BUT
SUPPOSE IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME MIXED PCPN SNEAKING INTO
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. SNOW ACCUMS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE 1
TO 2 INCHES FOR CENTRAL OHIO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILL
READINGS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING BUT IT HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT SO FAR. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SOME MVFR
VSBYS GOING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAFS BUT THESE COULD
BRIEFLY DROP DOWN INTO IFR FOR A PERIOD. OTHERWISE, MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A FEW FLURRIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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