061
FXUS61 KILN 011710
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME TODAY.
2) SOME FROST IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION LIKELY. FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
3) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SEASONABLY MILD PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE CHILLY AIR
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITHIN A BROAD TROF
TRANSLATES QUICKLY EAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST OF I-71 WILL DIMINISH
BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND
AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD THERMAL PROFILE.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THRU THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EVENING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING AS CLOUDS DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND
POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS DRIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
A PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH A FEW BRIEF WARM UPS TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEK.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PROPAGATE EAST WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
PROVIDING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THRU
OHIO WILL OFFER A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS - MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES THRU MID AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH SKIES TRENDING MAINLY CLEAR AND JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND 10 KTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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