118
FXUS61 KILN 161633
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH- CENTRAL OHIO, AS MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
AFTER SUNSET. MID- LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH
ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN LIFTING INTO THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A STRONGER TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA SATURDAY.
CURRENT TIMING HAS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN
THE DAY FOR WEST-CENTRAL OHIO, AND DEPARTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL OH AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. IF THIS TIMING HOLDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CAA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FROST CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IF WINDS CAN SLACKEN ENOUGH, WITH A
FREEZE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE SPARSE. A
RETURN TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING WESTERLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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