811
FXUS61 KILN 221729
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
129 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO
LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPS/RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW WIDESPREAD SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AS A SECONDARY MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS UP THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY. WITH SOME OF
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
FEATURE, HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FARTHER NORTH TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT SUPER HIGH WITH THIS BUT WOULD RATHER ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION GIVEN THE ALREADY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. SUPPOSE SOME VERY WEAK SURFACE
INSTABILITIES COULD SNEAK INTO OUR FAR SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, IT WOULD TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW ROTATING
STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES GIVEN THE GOOD LOW LEVEL
SHEAR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE A BIT THOUGH AS WE MAY
STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN THIS AND
THE LACK OF DEEPER SHEAR, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED AT
BEST, BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 06Z AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ055-056-063>065-070>074-
077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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