775
FXUS61 KILN 171844
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
244 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) AFTER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2) A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE HEADING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE MAINTAINED INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME. IT APPEARS
RATES WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
QPF EXPECTED. WITH THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER THE MORNING
RUSH, IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2) MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE DEPARTING
TROUGH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS
WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SNOWERS WILL BE MOST VIGOROUS ACROSS CENTRAL OH, SO
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR VISIBILITIES AT THOSE TERMINALS. AS THE SUN
SETS, LOSS OF HEATING WILL QUICKLY ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE,
LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM... THOUGH
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION LOWERS CLOUD
BASES BELOW 3,000 (AT LEAST UNTIL WE APPROACH THE MIDDAY HOURS).
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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