052
FXUS61 KILN 150625
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS LOW SO IT
WAS REMOVED. PWAT ANOMALIES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY,
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTRODUCES A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. FROST IS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE AREA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE BACK THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BY THE EVENING.
FROM THE MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE INCOMING LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN THE
TRANSITION, LEADING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY, INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH, BUT THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE BETTER HEATING. WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE FAVORABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS (RESULTING IN
CURVED HODOGRAPHS) IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTS MORE SUPPORTIVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LACK
OF BETTER HEATING RESULTS IN A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION THAT IS MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, THE DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR IS MUCH LESS CURVED, KEEPING ANY TORNADO THREAT VERY LIMITED.
INSTEAD, A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE DEEP LAYER WINDS BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS IMPACTING THE SAME AREAS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
SWATHS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN
IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WEST-CENTRAL OHIO.
OTHERWISE, MOST AREA MAY REMAIN RAINFALL FREE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. THAT
MEANS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL OCCUR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH FRIDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF LATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
WIND, RAIN, AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLY MORNING BUS PICKUP TO THE AFTERNOON DROP
OFF, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BUT IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE FAST
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FROST SATURDAY MORNING. INSTEAD, THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME FOR FROST WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND UPPER 30S SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME PERIOD OF HIGHER CATEGORIES, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ABLE TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW SO ONLY ADDED A MENTION FOR DAY/CVG/LUK WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL OCCUR FROM 03Z-09Z FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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