398
FXUS61 KILN 132300
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A
DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EVOLVES
TOWARD MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS E
THROUGH THE TN VLY. SOME GRADIENT IS BEING MAINTAINED NEAR/N OF THE
OH RVR TO KEEP WIND UP A BIT MORE FOR THE NRN OH VLY THAN WILL BE THE
CASE FURTHER S, BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 15-20 MPH AT
BEST.
AMIDST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE AND DRY LL PROFILE, TEMPS HAVE
REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE N TO THE UPPER 50S
NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN
THE W THAN THE E FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND
NE KY TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN EC IN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE INTO THE NIGHT. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION PAST SUNSET BEFORE SOME LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
IN PAST DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
NW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT INTO FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH
WAA BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN THE LLS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE ONSET OF WAA AND AN INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISO LIGHT SHRA,
ESPECIALLY S OF I-70, FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DEPTH OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL, AT BEST, AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING, EVEN NEAR THE
OH RVR, IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE WILL, AT THE VERY
LEAST, BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY AS THE
PROFILE ATTEMPTS TO SLOWLY SATURATE.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, ROBUST LL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION AS LL FLOW STEADILY INCREASES.
THIS MOISTENING OF THE LL PROFILE, ALONGSIDE SOME WEAK LIFT WITHIN
THE MOISTENING LAYER, MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL ISO
LIGHT SHRA OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE E (CENTRAL OH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL OH AND NE KY) LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. DO THINK THAT MOST SPOTS NEAR/W OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN DRY (AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHALLOWER
IN NATURE THAN POINTS FURTHER E), WITH PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH ACROSS THE SE ILN FA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY, DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER, WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FROM NE TO SW, RESPECTIVELY. A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT
IS ON TAP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, OWING TO INCREASING SW
FLOW AND EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
40S IN CENTRAL OH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE TRI-STATE INTO N KY. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DROP OFF QUICKLY NEAR/IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
PLATEAUING OR EVEN NUDGING UP A DEGREE OR TWO PAST MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SATURDAY: ACTIVE PERIOD TO START THE LONG TERM AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
SUPPORTING BLUSTERY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL (10-15 DEGREES). WINDS AND WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HOWEVER,
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR (DAYTON TO COLUMBUS) MAY
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER ON HIGHER WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIMITING DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS.
SEVERE THREAT (SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK): THERE IS NO DOUBT A HIGHER
MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR PRESENT SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS... ONE BEING THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TWO, THE FORCING MECHANISM
ALOFT MISSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MOST CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL OUTSIDE OF THE RANGE SO CONFIDENCE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL TOMORROW'S FORECAST. THE 06Z RRFS IS
WITHIN RANGE AND IT ONLY SHOWS VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 300-400 J/KG. AS A RESULT, KEPT MENTIONS OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.
SUNDAY: BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES DROP 20 TO 25 DEGREES BY THE
MORNING, AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PUSH LOWER THETA-E VALUES SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. IN THE END, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28-34 DEGREES ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MERGES WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FROZEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND
ADDITIONAL FORECAST SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A COLD RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE RECENT 12Z GFS/GEFS OUTLOOK SHOWING
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, THE FORECAST REMAINS ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: OF POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANCE, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING ON AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE
FAVORING A WARMER PATTERN WITH A STEEP RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN US. IF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US CAN EJECT INTO THE
MIDWEST, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE, THIS COULD
PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AFTER 1200Z FRIDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. LOWER END VFR OR
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP.
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 1200Z FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY INCREASES TO 10-15 KNOTS
BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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