123
FXUS61 KILN 181145
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
SAT NIGHT/SUN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
RECORDS TO BE SET TODAY.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP
CHANCES SAT NIGHT-SUN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A FEW RECORDS
POTENTIALLY BROKEN TODAY.
USING THE 01:00 OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT FCST, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTON
AND CINCINNATI COULD SEE RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THIS DATE. FOR THIS, IT
WILL ALL COME DOWN TO THE TEMPS RECORDED BETWEEN 23:00 AND MIDNIGHT.
DAYTON NEEDS TO STAY ABOVE 49, AND CINCY ABOVE 53, WHICH BOTH LOOK
TO BE ATTAINABLE. SORRY CBUS, YOUR MIDNIGHT TEMP OF 50 DOESN'T KEEP
YOU IN THE RUNNING AS THE RECORD HIGH MIN IS 52.
AFTER ANY MORNING SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AS
WARMER AIR IS ADVECTED ON SW WIND OF 10-20 MPH. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TOUGH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD BREAK UP LATER AND
COULD GET THAT ADDED KICK OF DIRECT HEATING TO PUSH READINGS UP TO
THE MID 60S.
AS FAR AS BREAKING ANY DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT DAYTON. CLEARING SKIES LOOK TO BE EARLIEST HERE,
AND THE FORECAST HIGH OF 65 COULD NOSE TO THE RECORD OF 66. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAMPER RECORDS AT CINCY AND CBUS.
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURE RISES, BUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GIVEN. READINGS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION, WITH FRIDAY MAX TEMPS
FOUND IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED WINDS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
LATEST SWODY2 HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH,
PULLING IN A FEW OHIO COUNTIES AND REMOVING A CHUNK OF KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL EXPECTED WEATHER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC LOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE, WHICH MAY
INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL S/W ENERGY MOVING ENE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN LOOKS TO BE FAVORED BEST IN THE LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW THAT WILL BE
SITUATED ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER AT THIS TIME.
THE LOW TRACKS NE TOWARDS LMICH OVERNIGHT AND THE WMFNT OVER THE CWA
ALSO TAKES A NE TRAJECTORY. THE WARM FRONTAL PROCESSES THEMSELVES
WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THAT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS THAT WILL TAP DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY TORNADOS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A DEARTH OF
INSTABILITY THAT I WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY CURTAILS DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS. MY THOUGHT IS THAT SEVERITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIRECT
HEATING/INSOLATION THAT COULD BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE GIVEN THE
MODEL RH PROFILES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION AND ANOTHER POINT OF VIEW IS JUST AS VALID NOW AS
WHEN IT WAS WRITTEN:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST PROMOTES A FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WITH BACKING FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WHICH ARE
TO BE EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DESPITE THE CONCERNING
HODOGRAPHS, THE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LIKELY LIMITS
THE ABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW LONG SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING DECREASES OVERALL INSTABILITY. STORMS
WOULD REQUIRE A LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATIONS
AND THE RESULTING HAZARDS. CAM GUIDANCE IS ONLY JUST BEGINNING TO
ENTER THE TIME WINDOW, WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ALREADY
ADVERTISED. SO, WHILE THE GENERAL BIG PICTURE POTENTIAL IS THERE, THE
DETAILS WILL BE NEEDED TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS.
BREEZY ON FRIDAY: AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 3) TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK AND DIMINISHING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS WEEKEND, SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE SNOW.
LOWERED THE PRECIP THREAT FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN AND WOULD HAVE CARED TO
ELIMINATE THEM THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUN. VERY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE
INDICATED AS EQUALLY STRONG S/W ENERGY TRACKING QUICKLY SE DEVELOPS
INTO A DEEP TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW. THIS DRIVE SEEMS TO BE A RESULT OF
EQUALLY STRONG HEIGHT RISES IN AN IMPRESSIVELY BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE WRN U.S. EVEN THOUGH THE RAPID HEIGHT FALLS AND INCOMING LOW ARE
THERE, THE ATMOSPHERE IN OUR REGION IS SIMPLY NOT SHOWING ANY
INDICATIONS OF MOISTURE FOR THESE DYNAMICS TO WORK ON. IF PRECIP
WERE TO OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT, IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE SNOW FOR THE NW
1/2 OF CWA AND A MIX IN THE SE. LIKEWISE, IF SAID PRECIP CONTINUED ON
SUN IT WOULD BE ALL SNOW WITH THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR UNDERNEATH
BUILDING LOW PRESSURE. ATTM, I WOULD BE BEST INCLINED TO KEEP A
THREAT OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN SCIOTO VALLEY/HOCKING HILLS ON SUN. I
SURMISE THAT THE INCREASED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER NOTED IS STRICTLY
BASED ON THE RAPID COOLING INDUCED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO ME TO BE THE CRUX OF DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS PROMINENT FEATURE AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO START
WITH.
THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH BELOW NORMAL VALUES RETURNING TO THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
TWO EXCEPTIONS AT CVG AND LUK WHERE GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20KT.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE MINUSCULE AND QUITE BRIEF.
ANY PASSING SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 16-17Z, EARLIER AT
DAY WHERE 14Z STILL LOOKS PRETTY SOLID FOR A POINT GOING FORWARD
WITHOUT PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT, WIND BACKS TO SOUTH AND DECREASES TO AROUND 5KT. LOW CLOUD
COVER WILL HAVE SCATTERED OUT IN THE LATE EVENING, BUT THE REGION
SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH A BKN-OVC CI DECK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT.
GUSTS TO 25-30KT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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