056
FXUS61 KILN 120632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
232 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING UP THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALSO, A DRYING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CLOSE OFF AND VERY SLOWLY CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION.
INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COMBINED, THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN OHIO,
AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST INDIANA FOR TODAY WITH A CHANCE POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
OTHERWISE, SPRAWLING, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (3 SIGMA) MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD GET INTO THE UPPER
90S BY THEN, BUT PROBABILITY OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
STILL LOW (ABOUT 20 PERCENT).
LARGE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW SHARP THE TROUGH IS IN THE
US. ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO REACH THE AREA, PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, THEN THE BOUNDARY WOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. BUT EVEN WITHOUT, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CAN OFTEN BE A CONDUIT FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO DEVELOP CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS. AT THE MOMENT, NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE GUIDANCE SUITE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT QUITE AS WARM
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO START. BUT THERE ARE
SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST TO THE EAST THAT ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO KILN
AND PERHAPS INTO KLCK. AN MVFR DECK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO
KCVG/KLUK BEFORE 12Z PLUS THERE WILL BE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AT KLUK. ANY SITES THAT HAVE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
16Z. THEREAFTER, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
THAT MAY EVEN PERSIST TO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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