653  
FXUS61 KILN 130011  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
811 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE  
REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON OCCASION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS  
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL  
LOW LIFTING NORTH OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS ARE  
MOVING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS SO THE NORTHERN EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
SLOW TO FILL IN/SATURATE. THE CLOUDS AND PCPN HAVE LIMITED ANY  
INSTABILITY, SO THINK ANY THUNDER CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL AT  
THIS POINT. AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND START TO LOSE THE DIURNAL  
ENHANCEMENT, EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN  
COVERAGE AND TAPER OFF. WE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL  
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER  
60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT UP INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH  
THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AS IF SHIFTS INTO THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER AXIS OF MID LEVEL  
VORTICITY WILL PIVOT UP AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR MORE  
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM  
LATE MORNING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE CAPE REMAINING QUITE  
SKINNY AND VERY LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE MID LEVELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE  
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT  
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. PCPN SHOULD THEN  
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AGAIN HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WE LOSE THE  
DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A CLOSED LOW OVER CWA BEGINS THE PERIOD, TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO  
LOWER MI DURING THE DAY AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH  
EXTENDING SE FROM THIS LOW WILL ALSO MOVE E AND AWAY FROM CWA  
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL  
PEAK THURS EVENING WITH FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT MORNING.  
OVERNIGHT FRI WILL SEE S/W ENERGY SKIM THE NORTHERN CWA AS IT  
ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LOW NEAR/N OF LK SUPERIOR. HEIGHTS WILL RISE  
SLIGHTLY AS ZONAL WLY FLOW REPLACES IT ON SAT, THEN RISE A LITTLE  
MORE SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.  
 
AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS SAT NIGHT, MODELS DIVERGE IN THE  
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIDGE. GFS IS QUICKER AND MORE AMPLIFIED,  
WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN LOOK TO BE SLOWER, LESS AMPLIFIED, AND  
NEGATIVELY TILTED. TEMPS IN THE NBM FORECAST LOOK TO SPLIT THE  
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS FROM SUN ONWARD, WITH WIDE VARIABILITY  
BETWEEN 4 SIGMA LEVELS THROUGH EACH OF THE PERIODS.  
 
UNTIL SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN LINE WRT MODEL AND  
OPERATIONAL FORECASTS, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS  
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THAT TIME, THURS AND FRI WILL BE THE PEAK IN THE  
FORECAST WITH LOW-MID 80S, COOLING DOWN THROUGH SUN INTO THE MID  
70S. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S WED/FRI OVERNIGHT WILL SANDWICH A BALMY  
UPPER 60S THURS NIGHT. SAT NIGHT ONWARD CURRENTLY HAS LOW-MID 50S IN  
THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH.  
 
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS NIGHT SHOULD BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT  
FOR STRONGER STORMS IN THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LIFT SLOWLY  
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT. INITIAL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES  
LEAVING MVFR CEILINGS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER  
OVERNIGHT BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. EXPECT  
MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
IMPROVING TO VFR. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL THEN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODERATE INSTABILITY  
DEVELOPS.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,  
THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY  
MORNING, AND THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS  
NEAR TERM...JGL  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...FRANKS  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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