481
FXUS61 KILN 191757
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING/PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT.
TRENDED POPS UPWARD FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
FOR THURSDAY.
3) PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO OUR
AREA WITH PWS NUDGING UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES OR SO HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEANWHILE, AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS HELPED
PUSH MLCAPES INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71 AND THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO INCREASE A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL DEVELOP INTO MAINLY OUR
NORTHWEST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MORE
CONSOLIDATED AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE
LIKELY WEAKENING AS IN MOVES INTO OUR EAT/SOUTHEAST AND THE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK, EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN DCAPES ARE ALREADY IN THE 1000-1200 J/KG RANGE
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS
IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY, SOME LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY INTO THE EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TO BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.
WHILE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ELEVATED PWS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A LOWER END FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS OUR INDIANA
COUNTIES, WHERE 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH MONDAY'S
EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY, HELPING TO SLOW THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST SHOULD
TAPER OFF HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SURFACE
WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST/NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER INTO MVFR AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES AND MVFR
CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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