382  
FXUS61 KILN 140443  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKING WEEK, AS  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE  
WEEKEND, A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO  
VALLEY REGION, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WE'LL  
HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS, THANKS THE BROAD  
AREA OF RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MID 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S SPRINKLED  
IN PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND OH/IN BORDER. THE COMBINATION  
OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND THE DEEP LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND WILL  
CONTINUE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS WILL BE  
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING AGAIN TO THE  
LOW 50S/UPPER 40S. GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS/  
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO THIS MAY BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED  
TO BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
ALOFT, THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-WEST WILL BE  
DAMPENED SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA) MOVES THROUGH THE LARGER  
FLOW. CONCURRENTLY WITH THIS, AT THE SURFACE, A DRY COLD FRONT  
PASSES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COOL SLIGHTLY, RISING  
TO THE UPPER 60S/ LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID  
40S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST  
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE  
FOR THIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO.  
 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR  
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS  
WILL LEAD TO DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO OUR AREA AND A  
DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING  
OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES MAY SNEAK INTO  
OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT  
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ON SATURDAY WITH  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, A  
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF  
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH  
HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ONCE  
AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AND OVERLAND STRATUS  
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KLUK  
FOR NOW. OVERLAND STRATUS SIGNAL IS MORE TOWARD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
OHIO AND MAY IMPACT KCMH AND KLCK. HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL ISN'T A SLAM  
DUNK AND THOSE TERMINALS ARE A BIT HARDER TO FOG, THANKS TO PROXIMITY  
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING A VSBY  
RESTRICTION AT THOSE SITES AND AMD AS NEEDED.  
 
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 5  
KNOTS. AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FOG/LOW LEVEL STRATUS BURNS OFF AND WINDS  
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. DIURNAL CU IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...  
 
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