076
FXUS61 KILN 121029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AS A
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THRU THE
ENTIRE WORK WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE LOWER SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY.
A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH
DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, BUT EACH DAY LACKS A SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM, WHICH
WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, A MOIST
AND WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE BEST WINDOWS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
NEXT WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE LOW DUE TO MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REGARDING TIMING AND
STRENGTH.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE A PROB 30 AT ALL TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. SOME RATHER WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO
EMBEDDED THUNDER ON MONDAY BUT DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION TO SHOWERS AT 30 HOUR KCVG TAF. ALSO, A LOW LEVEL
JET WILL OFFER A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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