184
FXUS61 KILN 141901
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
301 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR OUR
NORTHERN AREAS.
MADE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AND ADDED
SEVERE WORDING INTO THE HWO FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT
OF FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION, DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT GENERALLY JUST SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL VARIABILITY TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS. THERE IS A
SIGNAL THAT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING DAYTIME HOURS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. THERE WILL THEN BE A
LULL, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO, ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL
FLOOD WATCH PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70. WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. GOING INTO
SUNDAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. ADDED SEVERE
WORDING INTO THE HWO FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW WARM IT WILL BE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS. STILL GETTING SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA REACHING AROUND 100 HEAT INDEX
FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAT POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND PRIMARILY AROUND KCMH AND KLCK. GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THERE IS GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR A
TIME PERIOD LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS.
DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG AROUND THE TAF SITES EITHER BEFORE OR AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN FOG LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. GOING INTO SATURDAY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH A LULL BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE MENTION OF THIS
IN AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK..REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...JGL/08
AVIATION...08
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