205
FXUS61 KILN 281115
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
615 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY MORNING AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH SOME WINTRY IMPACTS POSSIBLE, BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN.
AFTER A DRY AND MILD DAY ON SATURDAY, NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION, WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF THETA-E ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE BOTH
RATHER MARGINAL, SO NOT ALL MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY ROBUST WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SOME ARE NEARLY DRY. HOWEVER, THE
DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH MAY BE A BIT SHOWERY, IS A LITTLE
MORE ROBUST ON SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. NONETHELESS,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD
BE RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A MIX WITH SNOW FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS OF NOW. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE THETA-E
OVERRUNNING COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
COLDER SURFACE CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL OHIO. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS, ROAD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE STARTING OUT FAIRLY WARM, SO IMPACTS
APPEAR UNLIKELY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA, AND SOME MODELS ARE
EVEN COMING IN WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW AT ALL. BASED ON THESE TRENDS,
THE SNOW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT MODEL BLENDS
SUGGEST THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, PERHAPS UP TO
AN INCH ON GRASSY AREAS, FOR A SWATH IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER, REMAINS LOW.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE
EXITING AT AROUND THE SAME TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2) WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A PRONOUNCED SHIFT IN THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY. ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH,
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY / SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SIGNIFICANT FEED OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH,
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. FOR THE ILN CWA, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE START OF BOTH A WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WARMING
EACH DAY AND GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY.
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ZONE OF HIGHER THETA-E, REPEATED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN, AND CERTAINLY SOME CONVECTION, WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST TO GET INTO SPECIFICS, BUT FROM A
SYNOPTIC PATTERN STANDPOINT, THIS IS A SETUP THAT WILL FAVOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING -- FOCUSED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE ILN CWA, BUT EXTENDING INTO THE ILN CWA TO SOME DEGREE AS WELL.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AS THEY ARE CLOSER IN TIME, THE CONCERN COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
LOOK AT WHEN OR WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER
10 KNOTS, AND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES. A
PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
FOR CMH/LCK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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