856
FXUS61 KILN 181028
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE
SHIFTED EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS ILLINOIS AND PARTS
OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OHIO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND FASTER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY.
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FASTER
TIMING, THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY
OFF TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT, EXPECT MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
WITH JUST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
WEST. IN THE EAST, THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE BEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL GENERALLY BE OFF TO OUR EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH OUR AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK,
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS
OUR EAST AS WE GET INTO SOME DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT KCMH/KLCK FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED, MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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