848
FXUS61 KILN 240659
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WHEN THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY TODAY WHILE A SECOND IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE WILL BOTH PROVIDE LIFT FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
USUAL DIURNAL PEAK.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
WAVE WILL CREATE A ZONE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EASTERN OHIO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE BACK TO 1.7-1.8 INCHES IN THAT AXIS
WITH THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71. HEFS, WHICH DID A RATHER GOOD JOB
HIGHLIGHTING THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN IN THE I-75 CORRIDOR YESTERDAY,
DOES NOT HAVE ANYWHERE NEAR THE CONCENTRATED AXIS OF QPF FOR TODAY.
REFS IS A BIT BOLDER, BUT DID NOT VERIFY AS WELL YESTERDAY. SO, SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING SEEMS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS STAGE TO PRECLUDE A NEW
WATCH. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE THE
THREAT POTENTIAL INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
00Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING AN OLD
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POPS LOOK OVERDONE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WHICH IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE NBM LAGGING IN PICKING UP TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, SO THAT
WILL BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. THE FRONT WILL GET PUSHED
BACK SOUTH BY THURSDAY AND END UP EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH IS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. BUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND HEIGHTS FALL AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO OR
FALL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ABOUT THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, THERE COULD BE SOME
VISIBILITY DROPS TO IFR. CEILINGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR WITH
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITIES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR IS
FORECAST DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES OF STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OFF, IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS MAY
SCATTER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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