080
FXUS61 KILN 271055
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM THURSDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE OCCURRING
ON THE NOSE OF A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET CURVES OFF TO THE EAST, SHEARED OUT MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS
ACROSS THE REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CREATE A WEST TO EAST ZONE FOR CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS INCREASING TO
1.6-1.8 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS ALL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. 00Z HREF AND REFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
PLACING THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL AXIS IN PROXIMITY TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE EVERYTHING TO
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE DOES SHOW STREAKS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, GENERALLY IN A WEST NORTHWEST-
EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION BUT THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY IN THE
LOCATION OF THESE CORRIDORS. IN ADDITION, CAPE WILL INCREASE TO
1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH WIND BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEYOND THE
HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN +/- 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FROM DAY
TO DAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS TO START WILL LIFT TO MVFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME
OUT WINDOWS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND/OR ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ALL
THE TERMINALS BY 22Z. AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END, CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME VFR AS LOWER CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER WITH SKIES
EVENTUALLY BECOMING CLEAR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW
FOG AT KLUK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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