495
FXUS61 KILN 021341
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
941 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM. FORECAST
EXPECTATIONS REGARDING DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN
ON TRACK.
PREV DISCUSSION...
SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING BUT
WE HAVE SEEN SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
BOTH SHOWING SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY
LIMITED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION, 8H TEMPS WILL
NUDGE UP A BIT, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND RATHER WARM AND DRY COMPARED
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD
H5 RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS STRETCHING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, GEFS ENSEMBLE, AND THE NAM BRING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NOTED IN THE
MODEL BLEND BY AFTERNOON. TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THIS DISTURBANCE ARE
SIGNIFICANT, WITH THE NAM CLEARING THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING, AND THE OTHERS
LINGERING THE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION DURING MAX HEATING HOURS. THE
EURO AND ITS EPS ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST UNDER STRONGER H5
RIDGING. DECIDED TO HOLD POPS DOWN DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN
AN OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIPITATION.
H5 RIDGING REINFORCES EAST FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH DRY NORTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES, SO A
HOT, DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
BY MONDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH ON LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. EXPECTING A CHANCE
OF STORMS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTH WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS HUMIDITY RETURNS REGION-WIDE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY LINGER VERY EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT KLUK. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HOGUE
AVIATION...JGL
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