366
FXUS61 KILN 072332
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
732 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY MAKING
SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL TURN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TOMORROW BUT THEN START TO GET
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK WARM UP AS WELL AS AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER DEW POINTS MAKING IT MORE HUMID. IT WILL BE DRY
INTO AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARDS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST, ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF I-71. IF IT DOES, THEN THERE COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED, THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
LARGER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
THE WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL BECOME DEEP (GREAT THAN 4 KM) AND A MODEST
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AND BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY, AS THE LATTER ONLY MAKES SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS MID
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCATIONS GETTING REPEATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY AND NOT GETTING MUCH PUSH UNTIL A SECOND
SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ACTIVITY
ON THURSDAY MORNING, OR AT LEAST A DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
BUT THEN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS WILL
BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CELLS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE
FRONT, ON THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT WINDS VEERING TO MORE EAST OR EVEN PERHAPS A BIT SOUTH OF EAST
LATE TONIGHT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KLUK
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR.
VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPS AGAIN TOMORROW. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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