492
FXUS61 KILN 191112
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
712 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STILL OVER THE REGION, WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH HAD BROUGHT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION IS
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION, LEAVING MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR
NOW. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY APPROACHES,
EXPECT INCREASING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A RETURN TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLD
FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. EXPECT EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO
STILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S, ACTUALLY ONLY ABOUT 5
DEGREES FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THAT REGION. WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
THE FAR NW HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 40S AS STRONG CAA
BEGINS TO SETTLE IN, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
EVENING BEGINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS
THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION.
WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND CUT OFF H5 LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TN VALLEY REGIONS, PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO MODERATE TO
SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS TO
25-30MPH ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA CONTINUES IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, WHICH BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FAR WESTERN AREA. NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO RECENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.
THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW WILL
COME CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30 MPH, PLENTY OF SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID 40S WEST TO NEAR 50
EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER ERN OHIO AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIP INTO THE
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT, PULLING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST WITH
IT. LINGERED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THE FORECAST OUT. ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE
CINCY TRI-STATE.
H5 FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT WORKS IN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
WHILE ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURE, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
70S IN NRN KY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT IS
PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION BY AN ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THEREFORE THERE ARE DIFFERENCE IS HOW MUCH PCPN LINGERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A ECMWF/GFS BLEND THAT KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE SOUTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS
IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA,
SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CEILINGS MOSTLY IFR BUT OCCASIONALLY BOUNCING TO MVFR WITH
SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY TIMING OF THESE CHANGES VERY DIFFICULT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CEILINGS, WITH
OCCASIONALLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS OCCUR.
WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP CUT OFF UPPER LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT, WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE 18Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JDR
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