045
FXUS61 KILN 180507
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
107 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND USHER
IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
OUR AREA. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES OF 95 TO AROUND 100
DEGREES AND ALLOW FOR ML CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP/PUSH INTO NORTHERN
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. 0-3KM SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25-30
KNOT RANGE AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT SO SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS OUR
NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENT, BUT EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA.
PWS WILL AGAIN BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ON THE HIGH END SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE STORMS SHOULD HELP LIMIT A HIGHER END FLOOD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT DECENT ML CAPES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PCPN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POPPING UP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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