924
FXUS61 KILN 202349
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE TO SNOW CHANCES SAT/SUN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
2) VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALSO MOVES EAST THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. IN
WARM ADVECTION FLOW, WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF GETTING A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS
THE SUITE OF MODELS, SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, AND DOES NOT COINCIDE
WITH THE DGZ.
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE MOVING EAST, BUT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING FOR A WHILE. THIS FORECAST WILL AT LEAST
KEEP FLURRIES IN FOR PART OF THE AREA THROUGH EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS DEFINITELY A CHANCE THAT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE LATER IN TIME THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2) VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD, AND WHETHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. REGARDLESS OF SPECIFIC VALUES, THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER SEVERAL-DAY PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND HIGHS THAT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW FREEZING. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT, THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LATER
DAYS, DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.
THE SNOW FORECAST WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR THE ILN CWA, WHICH WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR -- VIRTUALLY ALL
GUIDANCE BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE ILN
CWA, AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES MEAN THAT THE P-TYPE IS SETTLED.
LOOKING AT THE ARRAY OF GEFS MEMBERS, IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS IS A MASSIVE OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPS MUCH OF THE ILN CWA DRY, WHILE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME SNOW ON
VIRTUALLY EVERY OTHER MEMBER. THUS, THE DETERMINISTIC GFS DOES NOT
SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, THE
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY HIGH, REFLECTING THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT, AND PERHAPS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THAT THIS SNOWFALL IS
OUT ON DAY 5 INTO DAY 6, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS EXPECTED AND NORMAL.
POPS FOR SNOW HAVE BEEN INCREASED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT STILL
APPEARS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BASED ON THE CONFIDENCE
LEVEL AT THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST PROCESS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT WHICH POINT
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 24
KT. A 4-6KFT DECK WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS 12Z. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OUT OF THIS, MAINLY FROM KCVG/KLUK TO KILN,
AND EVEN AT THAT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH PROB30.
AFTER 15Z-16Z, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR. BUT THERE ARE MIXED
SIGNALS WHETHER THAT DECK WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AFTER 18Z OR
WHETHER THERE MAY BE A PAUSE BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS FOR
THE LAST 6 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND IF SNOW
OCCURS, IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...
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