134
FXUS61 KILN 150220
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1020 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES COULD LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S,
WITH SOME LOWER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH THIS ACROSS OUR NORTH
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MODERATING AIRMASS ON SUNDAY
WILL HELP HIGHS PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONG TERM STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST, AND A
SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROPICAL
SYSTEM HUMBERTO CHURNS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THIS SLOW TO EVOLVE PATTERN.
FOR MONDAY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT FROM A SMALL PACKET OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE. WE CAN THEN ANTICIPATE
GREATLY DIMINISHED FORCING AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE NEXT SATURDAY, WHEN
GRADUALLY FALLING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND A DEVELOPING FRONT MAY
ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.
ABOVE AVERAGE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE POINT TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY, 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TO BUILD SLOWLY
EAST TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. BAND OF SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF RIVER FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT KLUK WITH IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO IMPROVE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
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