791
FXUS61 KILN 081650
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1250 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SET UP, STARTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE BRIEFLY BROKEN BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY INTO THURSDAY, AND A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
20-30 MPH RANGE -- PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN ILN
COUNTIES, BUT THIS IS NOT WORTH MORE THAN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE AS
OF NOW, AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF JUST OVER AN INCH AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, SO IN ADDITION TO
CHANCES OF RAIN EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS WELL. WITH INSTABILITY, LAPSE RATES, AND
OVERALL WIND FLOW ALL LOOKING QUITE MARGINAL, HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY, WITH PARAMETERS SUGGESTING NO MORE THAN A VERY SLIM CHANCE
AT SOME GUSTY WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A DRY AND (RELATIVELY) COOLER DAY FOR THE
ILN CWA. HOWEVER, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING HIGHS INTO
THE 80S -- AND LOWS INTO THE 60S. IN FACT, VALUES SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD OF WARM CONDITIONS. MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IS THE FORECAST FOR CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND, BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY WAVES, AND THE TRACK
THEY MAY TAKE AROUND THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE RIDGE -- DEPENDENT
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ITSELF.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD HAVE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, AND PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW (AND SOME 20KT+ GUSTS) ON
THURSDAY.
A PERIOD OF LLWS REMAINS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT FOR KCVG, KLUK, AND
KDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HATZOS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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