577
FXUS61 KILN 272313
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
613 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRISK, COLD, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR
WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A
MEAN LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WITH MORE FAVORABLE FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE BEST THREAT
FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY INTO
THIS EVENING. BRISK CONDITIONS WITH WEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUE UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES -
MAINLY THIS EVENING.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST NORTH OF
OF I-70 TONIGHT, WITH SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING
SOUTH AND THEN LIKELY INCREASING EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO COLD LOWS FROM 20 TO 25 AS COLDER AIR SETTLES
INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY BACKS MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS BROAD RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING THRU FRIDAY
EVENING. LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH TO
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY,
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
COLD LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER
20S - WITH THE WARMEST READINGS IN URBAN LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALL EYES WILL BE ON A RATHER ROBUST SYSTEM THAT IS POISED TO IMPACT
THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, IN ADDITION TO
RENEWED BREEZY CONDITIONS, TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
GIVEN THAT WE'RE STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS OUT, WE'RE HEAVILY FOCUSED
ON TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE WAVE, WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR THAT IS ABLE TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, THIS MORNING'S 12Z NAM RUN FOLLOWS THIS TREND.
MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIGGING IN SOME 200 MILES NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A WARMER SOLUTION/MUCH MORE WARM AIR WORKING ITS WAY NORTH. IN
FACT, IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS, THE ECMWF ENS 850 RAIN SNOW LINE
RIDES RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHEREAS THE GFS ENS KEEPS IT DOWN
THROUGH KENTUCKY.
RIGHT NOW, THINKING IS THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLUMN SATURATES. WARM AIR ENCROACHES
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AIDED
BY A STRONG 50+ KNOT LLJ. THIS WILL HELP TRANSITION P-TYPES TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO RAIN DURING SATURDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS ITSELF UP, A BRIEF TRANSITION BACK TO
RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THAT
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS HIGHEST IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO. WPC ENSEMBLE
PLUMES INDICATE QUITE THE SPREAD (0-5 INCHES) IN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
AREAS NEAR DAYTON, WHILE PLUMES CLUSTER A BIT CLOSER TO THE 0-3 INCH
RANGE AREAS ALONG I-71 DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER REGION.
AS SUCH, HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES/WPC AND HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN OUR
CWA. WHILE THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF WATCH
CRITERIA, WE HEDGED TOWARD BEING MORE CAUTIOUS GIVEN THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET AND THIS
BEING AN IMPACTFUL HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT IS PULLED THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WE'LL HAVE A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, THANKS TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO DROP TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, NOW RESOLVING INTO
THE TEENS NORTH OF I-70 AND LOW 20S SOUTH. ANY SNOWPACK WOULD
EXACERBATE TEMPS DROPPING FURTHER.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE LOW, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES, AROUND FREEZING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WHILE DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
ALSO PRETTY LIMITED GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE
A CURRENT CONSENSUS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. AFTER THIS SECOND FEATURE PULLS EAST,
WE'LL GET A REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR, KEEPING THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF DECEMBER RATHER CHILLY.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT THE KCMH/KLCK AIRPORTS FOR
ANOTHER FEW HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (MAINLY JUST
FLURRIES) WITH NO EXPECTED IMPACTS. WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAY HAVE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.
A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AT KCMH/KLCK IN THE
MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LIFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SNOW MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ034-042.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ050.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...HATZOS
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