316
FXUS61 KILN 082344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF I-70.
2) A LARGER SYSTEM ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK, REINTRODUCING
A HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THRU THE REGION THRU THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR
SOUTH - THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ILN/S FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST WITH PWAT
VALUES AT 1.75 INCHES OR ABOVE. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
LATER THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS THRU THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
A DIURNAL UPTICK IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE WESTERLIES WILL PUSH SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM CANADA AND LAYING OUT
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS
ZONAL FLOW WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WHICH TRACK THRU THE REGION THIS WEEK.
THESE SHORTWAVES AND AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2+ INCHES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS, WILL OFFER THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE GREATEST QPF FOOTPRINT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, WITH A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH A GRADIENT LESSENING THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS AND WHERE TRAINING STORMS DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS EXITS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CINCINNATI SITES THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THE TAF SITES FOR THIS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP.
ALSO, IF SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD OCCUR. FOR NOW, THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE AFTER 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
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