684
FXUS61 KILN 032340
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BRINGING AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION, PEAKING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER,
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND AS THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY TRACKS FURTHER EAST EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO ILN/S SOUTHWEST AT THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT
8H JET. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES - WHICH THEN TRACKING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT A LOW IN PCPN ACTIVITY
MID MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 8H JET OF
40-45KT JET ADVECTING FAVORABLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THE
FORCING APPEARS TO BE RATHER DIFFUSE AND WEAK. MODEL SOLUTIONS -
ESPECIALLY THE CAM/S SOLUTIONS DIFFER GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. GIVEN
LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT - CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 2) ZONAL MID LEVEL BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS SOUTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AT MIDWEEK. A SURFACE FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO ILN/S AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SLOWS DOWN AS WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MOST FAVORED RAIN POTENTIAL IS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION
SERVES AS A FOCAL AREA FOR A WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF > 1" OF RAIN RAMP UP TO 80 PERCENT OR MORE
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI STATE, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF 2" OF RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS REACH 150-160% OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, THOUGH WITH THE SEASONAL TRANSITION INTO EARLY MAY, 1-2"
OVER 24 HOURS MAY NOT POSE AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE
ON AMOUNTS AND TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES INTO THE RANGE OF
THE CAMS.
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS PASSING NEAR THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS COULD
EVENTUALLY MAKES THEIR WAY ACROSS THOSE SITES WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARDS 12Z. PROBABILITY OF THAT PRODUCING AN MVFR CEILING IS
GREATEST IN THE COLUMBUS AREA, AND EVEN THERE THAT CHANCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING
OVER 20 KT ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...
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