841
FXUS61 KILN 212339
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL WORDING BELOW FOR MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 60S AND 70S WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A RETURN TO 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MONDAY. NO FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING PRIMARILY
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING A LOT IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO WORK
NORTH BACK THROUGH THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT STARTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. INCREASED THE QPF
FOOTPRINT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF WATER IN SPOTS WITH SOME WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION.
GENERALLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS DECENT UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOME INSTABILITY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY THAT COULD
BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS DETAILS RESOLVE TO
FOCUS ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND POTENTIAL SEVERE IMPACTS.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY OF THESE DAYS IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AS DETAILS RESOLVE THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING, THOUGH REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. A STRONG LLJ WILL
BE IN PLACE AROUND 5K FT, RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR LLWS ADDED TO ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LLWS WILL DECREASE
AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED IN PERIODS OF -SHRA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW, DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER, THOUGH SOME VERY WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE SO THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO
TAFS AS THE SHOWERS GET CLOSER.
THIS LINE WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THAT LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING
ISN'T HIGH AT THE MOMENT. HAVE HANDLED IT WITH PROB 30S FOR NOW.
CONCURRENT WITH THAT LINE SAGGING DOWN INTO OUR REGION, SOME MVFR
CIGS WILL ALSO SAG SOUTH, LIKELY COVERING TAF SITS ALONG AND NORTH
THE I-71 CORRIDOR FOR A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS/ THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CA
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