613
FXUS61 KILN 022318
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
718 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND
HOCKING VALLEY.
3) SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE TN VALLEY BY MORNING. CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO THE REGION LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. SOME COLDER
LOCATIONS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OBSERVED
FROM MONDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A SURFACE WAVE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT
MOVING THRU THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH EXITS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK,
SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENSEMBLES INDICATING GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
20-25 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES. THIS SIGNAL IS NOTED AT
THIS TIME AND WILL BE WATCHED AS WE GET CLOSER BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
FOR AN EXACT LOCATION OR AMOUNT.
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AT THIS
TIME, DO NOT OBSERVE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL FROST, AS CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TO START WILL
DIMINISH BY 03Z, ALTHOUGH A FEW CLOUDS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER 7-9KFT DECK
MOVING IN AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY AND THEN
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 20 KT AFTER 16Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...
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