570
FXUS61 KILN 021047
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL HAVE MORE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON, ENDING
IN THE EARLY EVENING.
2) THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH RUNNING FROM SW OH TO
SWRN LAKE ERIE, THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT PEAKS AT 21Z OVER SE
WARREN CO, RUNNING ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR, AND JOGGING NNE TO NE
DELAWARE CO FROM SRN MADISON CO. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR A DAY WITH A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS GIVEN THIS PARAMETER. ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME OF THESE
STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE
NE, WITH THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE CWA OVERNIGHT. A W-E UPPER RIDGE
LAYS OUT OVER NRN OH BUT ANOTHER H5 LOW TRACKS TO THE N FROM THE ERN
TN VLY AND ENTERS SERN CWA TUES NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO SRN CWA. THE LOW CONTINUES TRACKING N AND THEN INTERACTS WITH LLVL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO CREATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE MODELS DIFFER, THURS AND FRI REMAIN AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TYPICALLY FOUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WILL WARM TO THE MID-UPPER 60S THURS THRU SAT NIGHT, UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 SUN NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY DROPPING AT
TIMES TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE
TRADEOFF WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS IN HIGH QUESTION, THOUGH TIMING WILL BE
WITH THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY, ENDING IN THE EVENING.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL AGAIN PRESENT THEMSELVES TONIGHT AS LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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