828
FXUS61 KILN 071050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
650 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
DRY TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OUT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY REMAINING MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH SHOULD TAPER OFF AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT MORE
TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A SURFACE
WAVE PUSHES EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEEPER SHEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWS
WILL ALSO PUSH UP IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S NORTH
TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF FROPA REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIMEFRAME, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH
PWATS, INSTABILITY, AND A LLJ WITH FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE NOSE
COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF I-70. IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DEPICTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
MESOSCALE BANDING AS THE EVENT COMES IN RANGE, FLOOD HEADLINES COULD
BE CONSIDERED AS MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BRINGING RELATIVELY COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE NEAR
80. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. HOT, AND MORE HUMID, CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVES
AROUND MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. AS A RESULT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KLUK WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR TO IFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
30 HOUR KCVG TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...JGL
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