961
FXUS61 KILN 020623
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
223 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND HOCKING VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
3) SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND HOCKING VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VALLEY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
30 IF CLOUD CONDITIONS ALLOW. THIN CIRRUS INCHING SLIGHTLY NORTH FROM
KY MAY MITIGATE THIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, WITH THICKER MID
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST OVER THE MID/LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND HOCKING VALLEY, WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG ALSO POSSIBLE HERE.
WITH THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE MID OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY AND CLEARER SKIES, WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING
CONDITIONS LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. CURRENT THINKING IS TO ISSUE
FROST/POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES ONCE THE EXISTING FROST ADVISORY
EXPIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH EXITS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK, SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AT THIS TIME, NOT
SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED FROST, AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT UNDER THE TROUGH PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PASSED EAST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OR SOME HIGH LEVEL VFR CIGS. STILL EXPECTING FOG TO
DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF KCMH/KLCK. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED.
INCREASING LL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING IN VFR BKN
CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNAL NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10KTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5KTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TURNING SW TOWARD OR JUST AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page