685
FXUS61 KILN 201815
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ONGOING, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO.
ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OHIO
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVIEST RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST, BUT ONGOING AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
2) ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SOME EXTREME FLOOD ISSUES,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL OHIO. NUMEROUS HIGH WATER REPORTS AND SOME
WATER RESCUES OCCURRED THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF
LICKING COUNTY, OH. SOME OF THE AREAL FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RISES ON RIVERS/CREEKS WILL
KEEP SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGHOUT CENTRAL OHIO IN PARTICULAR.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
MIAMI RIVER, PRIMARILY NEAR SYDNEY, MIAMITOWN AND MIDDLETOWN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LICKING
RIVER. I-70 NEAR BUCKEYE LAKE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO INTO MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE, CRESTING NEAR 883.5 FT (WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD). THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO I-70 (SEE FLOOD IMPACT
STATEMENTS IN THE FLOOD WARNING), WITH FLOODING ALSO EXPECTED NEAR
THE KOA CAMPGROUNDS AND HOMES NEAR THE RIVER CHANNEL. MODERATE
FLOODING IS EXPECTED NEAR PORTIONS OF NEWARK, HEATH AND HEBRON, WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPACTS FROM FLOODING EXPECTED TO
LINGER A BIT LONGER NEAR HEBRON (PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT). ADDITIONAL RISES ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE HOCKING RIVER, WITH
ENTERPRISE AND CIRCLEVILLE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.
FOR UPDATES ON THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS, VISIT WWW.WATER.NOAA.GOV.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EJECT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN OVERALL TIMING OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROM A HYDRO
PERSPECTIVE, PWATS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH A BRIEF SURGE TO
1.25" TO 1.50" JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE ORIENTED N-S AND BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, SO WHILE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE, THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW. FROM A SEVERE PERSPECTIVE, MODEST CAPE DEVELOPS INTO OUR
CWA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MARGINAL WIND SHEAR (~20-25 KTS
EFFECTIVE) WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WELL ORGANIZED STORMS AND OVERALL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FZL WILL BE A BIT SHALLOWER AROUND 11,000 FT,
SO PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH TALLER STORMS.
OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CU FIELD PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GENERALLY REMAINING VFR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. CU DISSOLVES
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VSBY IMPACTS TO
THE MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
LOW VSBYS DROP AS SOME OF THE FOG MAY LIFT INTO LOW STRATUS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS IF THIS PROCESS OCCURS, BUT FOR
NOW, MAINTAINED MORE OF A SCT GROUP FOR THE CLOUDS AND HAVE PRIMARILY
MVFR/IFR VSBYS. LOWER VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
KLUK AND PERHAPS KILN.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT SOME
CIG REDUCTIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
IF THE LOW STRATUS DECK BECOMES MORE PROLIFIC.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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