382
FXUS61 KILN 140443
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORKING WEEK, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WE'LL
HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS, THANKS THE BROAD
AREA OF RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE MID 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S SPRINKLED
IN PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND OH/IN BORDER. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND THE DEEP LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION AND WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING AGAIN TO THE
LOW 50S/UPPER 40S. GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HINTING AT SOME LOW STRATUS/
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO THIS MAY BE SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED
TO BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
ALOFT, THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-WEST WILL BE
DAMPENED SLIGHTLY AS A SHORTWAVE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CANADA) MOVES THROUGH THE LARGER
FLOW. CONCURRENTLY WITH THIS, AT THE SURFACE, A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COOL SLIGHTLY, RISING
TO THE UPPER 60S/ LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LEAD TO DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO OUR AREA AND A
DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES MAY SNEAK INTO
OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY SO IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ON SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD TONIGHT HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ONCE
AGAIN SUGGESTS SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AND OVERLAND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KLUK
FOR NOW. OVERLAND STRATUS SIGNAL IS MORE TOWARD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OHIO AND MAY IMPACT KCMH AND KLCK. HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL ISN'T A SLAM
DUNK AND THOSE TERMINALS ARE A BIT HARDER TO FOG, THANKS TO PROXIMITY
TO THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING A VSBY
RESTRICTION AT THOSE SITES AND AMD AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 5
KNOTS. AFTER SUNRISE, ANY FOG/LOW LEVEL STRATUS BURNS OFF AND WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. DIURNAL CU IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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