456
FXUS61 KILN 162328
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
628 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER, COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMUP
EVOLVES BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. MORE RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS /VERY/ DRY AIR SETTLES INTO
THE OH VLY WITHIN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY BEYOND SUNSET (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EC/SE IN) AS A LL INVERSION BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE STEEPER
LL LAPSE RATES (AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS) MAY PERSIST IN CENTRAL OH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS PAST SUNSET, BUT EVENTUALLY THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AREA-WIDE BY/PAST MIDNIGHT. IN FACT, WITH AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE OH VLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AT 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
MORNING.
MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS ON TAP FOR THE DAYTIME MONDAY, EVEN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME THICKENING CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S FROM N TO S, RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME MONDAY WILL FLATTEN AND DRIFT OFF TO THE E INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS A COMPACT, YET SLOWLY FLATTENING/WEAKENING, SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. DESPITE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
OVERALL SYSTEM, SOME ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE PAST
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SEASONABLY-STRONG H8 LLJ ON
THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS RESULTS IN A CORRIDOR OF FAIRLY STRONG MASS
CONVERGENCE. THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE/MASS CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF PCPN TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
PCPN FAVORED NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR WHERE THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE SUSTAINED THE LONGEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY EVENING WILL DROP OFF ABRUPTLY TOWARD/PAST SUNSET AS
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER, AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD/PAST MIDNIGHT, TEMPS WILL PLATEAU
BEFORE NUDGING UP SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THICKER
CLOUDS MOVE IN AND CALM WINDS TRANSITION TO LIGHT SE FLOW BY SUNRISE.
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PCPN FOR MOST OF THE ILN FA
WILL BE JUST A COLD RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SOME BRIEFING RA/SN MIXING TO EVOLVE FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
IN THE SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THE TEMPS IN CENTRAL OH, IN
PARTICULAR, WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE FREEZING MARK AS THE LIGHT PCPN
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, SO THIS IS THE GENERAL LOCATION THAT WILL BE
WATCHED THE CLOSEST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RA/SN MIX
OR EVEN FZRA ON TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON FZRA POTENTIAL IS LOW
AT THIS TIME AND MOST SOLUTIONS/FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD A SFC/BL
TEMP PROFILE THAT IS WARM ENOUGH TO YIELD PRIMARILY RAIN. HOWEVER,
CERTAINLY SOME BRIEF SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF AIR/SFC TEMPS
ARE NOT ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO PCPN ONSET. DETAILS
WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD MID-MORNING AND BEYOND TUESDAY, PTYPE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE, WITH SOME STRONG LIFT/CONVERGENCE
CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN (AND ISO TS) POTENTIAL
FROM SE IN THROUGH FAR SRN OH INTO N KY DURING THE DAYTIME. TOTAL
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PCPN WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH NEAR/N OF I-70 TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 0.5" NEAR/S OF
THE OH RVR. THE GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE EXTREMELY
TIGHT, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR (ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HEAVIER RAIN SOLUTION IS LOW).
REGARDLESS OF PTYPE EVOLUTION IN CENTRAL OH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IT
IS GOING TO BE A CHILLY, CLOUDY, RAINY DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH A RAPIDLY
MOISTENING LL PROFILE KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN THE S TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE N.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER S/W TRACKS EAST IN THE EVENING AND SURFACE LOW HAS EVOLVED
INTO A WSW-ENE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANY LINGERING RAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING BY MIDNIGHT, THOUGH WEAK INDICATIONS OF
LIGHT PRECIP ARE BEING SHOWN OVER NRN KY AND THE KY/IN/OH REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWS AND BECOMES FLATTENED BY WED
EVENING, ALLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY UNIMPEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP TRAILS OFF OVERNIGHT FRI AND
FORECAST IS DRY BEYOND THIS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURS/FRI WHEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMS IN WARMER, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD CROSS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FRI LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
COOLER GIVEN THE RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT FROPA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR/JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
SAT/SUN NIGHT. THE PEAK MIN TEMPS WILL BE THURS NIGHT WITH READINGS
50-55, SANDWICHED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S WED AND FRI NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN PERSIST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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