360
FXUS61 KILN 181752
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1252 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. COLDER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHILE THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
ATTACHED TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS/SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED JUST ALONG
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40
MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MUCH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IF STRONG LLJ
WINDS CAN BE MIXED DOWN. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF MIXING IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION HAS LIMITED MIXING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND AREAS UPSTREAM THUS FAR. SOME EROSION OF THE
INVERSION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN
OF STRONG WINDS INSIDE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. SPSS OR CONVECTIVE
PRODUCTS MIGHT BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT WINDS INSIDE THE STRONGEST
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ENDS TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS FIRST COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE 30S ON GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. IMPORTANTLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
THE FIRST FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THIS TIME GAP BETWEEN THE RAINFALL
ENDING AND THE SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MITIGATE REFREEZE POTENTIAL
SINCE BREEZY CONDITIONS HELP DRY THINGS OUT A BIT. LATE TONIGHT THE
SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH THEREBY DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING ON BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER FROPA, BUT OVERALL CHANCES
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAIN LOW AND ISOLATED. A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR OR WHERE STANDING WATER FREEZES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS FOR THE DAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES.
SKIES START TO SCATTER FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX AND TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE TEENS
NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR FRIDAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
EVOLVE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND INTO MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BUT OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
DURING THIS TIME.
BRIEF STRETCHES OF LIGHT PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE OSCILLATES ABOUT THE
REGION SEVERAL TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPORADIC IN
NATURE GIVEN THE MEAGER FORCING AND THERE IS NOT YET A CLEAR OR
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SPECIFIC TIMING OR FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR MORE
ROBUST PCPN DURING THIS STRETCH. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE TOWARD MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS THE LL FRONT DRIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING WHICH MAY
FURTHER LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD. AFTER FROPA, SHOWERS ACTIVITY BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED BUT MVFR, AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR, CEILINGS REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FROPA. A STRONG LLJ LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS WHILE THE REGION REMAINS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.
AFTER FROPA THIS EVENING, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS ENDS AFTER FROPA. HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE INSIDE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072-077>080.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>099.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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