051
FXUS61 KILN 052344
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS GENERALLY
HIGHER WITH SNOW TOTALS FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW ON FRIDAY.
2) COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND/WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FLOW BACKS WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z-12Z OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS LOOKS
TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST CLEARING ILN/S SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BETWEEN 20-21Z.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND HIGHER WITH QPF AND
SNOW. LATEST NBM SHOWS 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR >1.5
INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN CINCINNATI AND COLUMBUS. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES OF SNOW -
GENERALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WITH A SECOND BETWEEN CINCINNATI AND
DAYTON. EXPECT A SOLID 1-2 FROM CINCINNATI ON NORTHEAST - WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN POSSIBLE BANDS.
METRO MODEL SHOWS ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
BUT GIVEN SOME HIGHER BURSTS OF SNOW FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE TRAVEL
IMPACTS. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
FRIDAY FOR THE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S IN OUR SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND
CHILL READINGS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN
THE ZERO TO 15 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A
STRATUS DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CIGS FALL TO MVFR THEN TO
IFR BY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. CIGS REMAIN IFR THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SLOWLY INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY AROUND SUNRISE, QUICKLY
DROPPING VSBYS TO IFR, WITH PATCHY LIFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SNOW.
SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING.
AFTER WIDESPREAD SNOW TAPERS OFF, STREAMERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL
LINGER, LEAVING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
KNOTS BUT WILL SWING AROUND TO WESTERLY THEN EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LLWS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...CA
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