035
FXUS61 KILN 110018
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
818 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TODAY, MAINLY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
2) SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND ENSUES NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. SOME CAA CU BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WHILE MAJORITY OF THE FA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY, IT SHOULD STILL BE MENTIONED THAT THE PROXIMITY OF THE
COLD FRONT COULD POSE A VERY ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR STORM
IN OUR FAR SOUTH. MAJORITY OF CAMS KEEP ANY SHOWER/STORM INITIATION
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FA, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING DEVELOPING FOR
LEWIS COUNTY, KY OR NEARBY COUNTIES. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE FARTHER SOUTH, DIMINISHING ANY PCPN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS HIGH ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
RAIN CHANCES TO OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OH MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY IF THERE IS SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, ANY
SEVERE RISK REMAINS LOW FOR NOW, AND THE QPF FOOTPRINT REMAINS PRETTY
LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, A VERY
MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN RAPID FLUCTUATIONS, WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, A BRIEF DIP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY, BUT THEN WE RAPIDLY WARM BACK UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SECONDARY FRONT OFFERING LOW
LEVEL CAA. DIURNAL CU THAT DEVELOPED TODAY IS DISSIPATING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING - LEAVING JUST SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY EXPECT TO
OBSERVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
AROUND 6000 FEET DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...AR
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