188
FXUS61 KILN 101919
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
319 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR OR CLEARING SKY
COVER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL LAY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL PASS EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH IT'S PASSAGE, WITH
THE BETTER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH FOUND IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A SOUTHWARD DIVING SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY, MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTH. THE BRIEF NATURE OF
THIS ROUND OF WEATHER HAD ME ONLY PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN WHERE THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN BY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST OR VARIABLE UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEY PICK
UP TO 10-15 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50, WITH SOME MID 40S EAST OF THE
SCIOTO RIVER EXCEPTING METRO COLUMBUS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN EASTERN CWA EARLY
SATURDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE SUN
INTERACTS WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPARK
IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. THIS IS MORESO IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CHANCES WERE JUST EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
IN THE MORNING AFTER THE LINE'S PASSAGE.
HIGHS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH TOMORROW. READINGS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER.
IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES FALLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. BUT SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SEE LOWS DROP TO THE MID 40S WITH A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK, WITH HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
ON MONDAY, DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO
THE REGION, AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE
SOME SHOWERS COULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD,
WITH A SURFACE LOW NOT CROSSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
AND ENDING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
BUT STILL DETAILS TO WORK OUT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL
HELP DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE OR FLOOD THREATS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST PROCESS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THERE
REMAINS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW QUICKLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN ON BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE NEXT DISTURBANCE/COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL. UNTIL THEN, NORTHERLY WINDS OF
12-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS IN SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST SCATTERED-BROKEN VFR CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
BEFORE A RAPID ONSET OF VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT A FAIRLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF RAIN/SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT BY LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND MORE GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...BINAU
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