060
FXUS61 KILN 130224
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1024 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CKEAR.
COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES COOL
TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
STORMS HELP OUT. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND A CAPPING INVERSION SEEN IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WILL PROBABLY BE OUR FIRST COMPLETELY DRY
DAY WITHOUT ANY STORMS ON RADAR IN QUITE SOME TIME. SEASONABLE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS AROUND 60 -
WHICH CAN'T BE ARGUED WITH IN MID JULY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
OUT THE LONG TERM ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK THROUGH THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL GET CLOSER TO REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES.
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN THE HWO UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONVECTION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF ALL THE TAFS, AS THE H5 S/W
SLIDES INTO WEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ALTOCU OR CIRRUS DRIFTING THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS,
AND WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAINS, COULD
SEE FOG DEVELOP. FEEL THE MOST CONFIDENT FOR FOG AT LUK AND
ILN, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS ALSO.
PUT PREVAILING FOG AT LUK AND ILN AND TOOK THEM DOWN TO IFR. FOR
THE OTHER TAFS WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOW, JUST WENT WITH A TEMPO
FOR NOW.
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WX CU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDED A BROKEN VFR CEILING TO THE NRN TAFS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
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