358
FXUS61 KILN 080009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SEASONABLY COLD PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH A BRIEF WARMUP EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE MORE COLD AIR
SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WILL EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, INCLUDING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY EVOLVE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VERY
COLD AIR POISED TO FILTER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A VERY WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING WITH IT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SN OR FZDZ, PARTICULARLY
NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
FLATTEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT WITHIN THE BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT PCPN LATE IN THE DAY EXCEPT
ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. THE 07.12Z KILN RAOB DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE SOUNDING, FROM ABOUT H7 TO NEAR THE
SFC, WITH SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC LEADING TO SOME BR
THIS MORNING. EVEN STILL, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY/DEPTH IN THE DGZ
REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST, SO DO THINK THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
WC OH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED (GENERALLY ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR
LESS) INTO MID AFTERNOON, WITH SUB-OPTIMAL DENDRITE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, ROAD TEMPS ARE WARMING WELL ABOVE FREEZING,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
ELSEWHERE, WE WILL BE LOCKED IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WITH
TEMPS NUDGING UP ONLY A FEW DEGREES INTO MIDDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN WC OH TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR/S OF THE OH
RVR.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR TONIGHT IS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE,
WHICH WILL BE PROGRESSING W TO E ACROSS THE NRN TN VLY. THIS SYSTEM,
WHILE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE ONE IMPACTING THE NRN OH VLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINTRY PCPN, WILL BE QUITE A BIT FURTHER S, WITH
AN EXPECTATION FOR THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TO GRAZE THE
SRN HALF OR THIRD OF THE ILN FA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE RATHER
MEAGER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO N KY AND FAR SW/SRN OH, THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THESE AREAS, PARTICULARLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
SHALLOW/MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE DGZ, WITH MOST OF THE SATURATION
CENTERED BETWEEN THE SFC AND H7. EVEN THOUGH THE DGZ IS SOMEWHAT
DEEP, IT IS FAIRLY DRY. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE ONLY AT
ABOUT 50% FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN PARTS OF N KY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, LENDING ITSELF TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING ITSELF IS OF SOME
CONCERN. THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY AT LEAST
/SOME/ LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE TRI-STATE THROUGH FAR SRN OH
AND MOST OF N KY, EVEN WITH ENSEMBLE PROBS FAVORING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR MOST (OR ALL) OF THE LOCAL AREA. AIR TEMPS WILL BE SETTLING TO
NEAR FREEZING FROM OWEN CO THROUGH LEWIS CO KY BY 09Z, WITH UPPER 20S
A BIT FURTHER N, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR ROAD SFC TEMPS TO GET NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AFTER 09Z. SO EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW WON'T
BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY, UNTREATED SFC CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RECEPTIVE
TO LIGHT ACCUMULATION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE DAY.
WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO, WITH AN SPS VERY LIKELY TO BE
WARRANTED AT SOME POINT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
WEAK CAA WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT SOME
DIURNAL RESPONSE IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS NUDGE UP 8-10 DEGREES BY THE
AFTERNOON FROM MORNING LOWS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS WE
GET INTO SOME SUNSHINE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL EVOLVE LATE IN THE DAY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AS THE MORNING
SYSTEM PULLS TO THE E. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S IN EC IN
AND WC OH TO THE MID 30S NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR, WHICH WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP MONDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS E INTO THE REGION BY LATE EVENING. TEMPS WILL DROP
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, BUT WILL
PLATEAU LATE IN THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOME WAA BEGINS TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IN FACT,
TEMPS WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES PAST 09Z (PARTICULARLY
NEAR/NW OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR) AS SW SFC FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SFC LOW DARTS E ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY TUESDAY FOR
THE OH VLY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL JUST BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE. IN THE DEVELOPING WAA, WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES UP NEAR NORMAL, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 40S. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PCPN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE STRENGTH, TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL JUST LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AND USHER IN A VERY COLD AIRMASS THROUGH END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IT WILL ALSO BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
ENERGY AND/OR SOME FLOW OFF OF THE THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH IFR CEILINGS WITH THE BEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. THESE LOW CLOUDS TO WORK SOUTH WITH
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 06Z-15Z.
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WILL OFFER
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR SRN SITES OF KCVG/KLUK (AND
POTENTIALLY KILN) BETWEEN ABOUT 05Z-11Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE E OF THE
TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10-15KTS, WITH
GUSTS 15-20KTS, BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS TO
35KTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page