633
FXUS61 KILN 140616
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
116 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL OF THE WAY INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THERE CONTINUE
TO BE FLUCTUATIONS IN QPF. OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS HAS COME IN HEAVIER
AND ENOUGH GFS MEMBERS ARE HIGHER THAT THE STRONG NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN RAINFALL PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 1/2 INCH (AS A PROXY FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL) HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO. PREVIOUS GEFS AS WELL AS
OTHER ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS, INCLUDING AI ENSEMBLES, HAVE DEPICTED THAT
GRADIENT EITHER ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OR EVEN FURTHER SOUTH IN
KENTUCKY. THE 0Z HEFS IS ALSO IN THE LATTER CAMP, BUT THE 0Z REFS
DOES HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES INTO THE TRI-STATE WHICH THEN SHIFT
SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SO STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
RIVERS IN KENTUCKY CONTINUE TO FALL AFTER CRESTING FROM SNOW MELT
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, SO EVEN IF HIGHER QPF VERIFIES (STILL UNDER 1
INCH), IT SHOULD NOT HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT, ALTHOUGH SOME SMALLER
STREAMS MAY BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO EFFICIENT RUNOFF.
KEY MESSAGE 2) MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST, BUILDING INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP.
AT THIS STAGE, WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH LATEST NBM NUMBERS PUSHING TOWARDS RECORD WARMTH. WILL SEE
HOW THE DETAILS EVOLVE AS THAT GETS CLOSER IN TIME, BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3) CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SETTLING ON TWO SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE REGION, ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER ON FRIDAY.
INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, TAKING A WARM FRONT
WITH IT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THESE FEATURES
WHERE BETTER FORCING OCCURS, BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
INCREASE WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS. PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH ARE FAIRLY HIGH, GENERALLY 50 TO 80 PERCENT.
SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE LESS
AMPLITUDE BUT TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. IF IT KEEPS THAT TRACK, THEN
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE HIGHER ON FRIDAY THAN ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. SOME MID CLOUDS ABOUT THE
AREA TO START WILL MOVE OFF. EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, EVENTUALLY LOWERING INTO A MID DECK.
RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, ONLY
AFFECTING THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER,
ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAIN VFR WHILE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP INTO MVFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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