522
FXUS61 KILN 171834
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
134 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MENTION WAS ADDED OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER THE PERIOD OF BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES, SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
FROZEN PRECIPITATION. WHILE EXACT DETAILS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME,
THESE SYSTEMS ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, COLD, WESTERLY WINDS DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS
DURING MLK DAY. FORECAST WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS
SOUTH OF I-70 REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT ARE ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TEMPERATURES REALLY DROP OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN A BIT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, FORECAST
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL INTO INTO THE THE -10 RANGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK
AND PETS, VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
SOME MODERATION IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES ONE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SNOW CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: WITH THE LARGE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE REGION, MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH WEAK AREAS OF
ATMOSPHERIC UPWARD MOTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH RIDGING BACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT, THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD HAS SLOWED OVER
THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL DRIVE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINING IN COOLER AIR. ALOFT, THE SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION TO THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF UPWARD MOTION
OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR ALOFT, SATURATION AND LIFT WITHIN
THE DGZ WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, PRIMARILY ALONG I-71 AND
SOUTH. FOR NOW, HAVE LIMITED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL ASSIST
IN SUBLIMATION.
SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: AS THE MAIN SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ARRIVES TO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, THE LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR UPWARD MOTION AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GIVEN THE COLD CONDITIONS, ANY LIFT AND SATURATION ALOFT
IS LIKELY TO BE WITHIN THE DGZ, SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED, EVEN A HALF INCH OF
SNOW LEADING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE IMPACTFUL.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: AFTER THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS MOVES OUT, THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS IN. THE FIRST ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK OR
INTO THE WEEKEND. ON WEDNESDAY, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT
THE RESIDUAL COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SNOW. IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH, WARM AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE 00Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE GEFS AND GEPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECMWF ENS. THE ENS IS
COOLER AND AS A RESULT, MUCH DRIER THAN THE OTHER TWO ENSEMBLES. THIS
SIMILAR BIAS IS OBSERVED WITHIN EACH OF THE 12Z AI VERSIONS (AIGEFS,
AIFS ENS), CREATING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
DUE TO THIS, NO CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE APPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS THE IMPACTFUL SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING, AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED (THROUGH PROB30S) FOR ALL SITES
EXCEPT DAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY GIVEN PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS SO
ALL FM GROUPS ARE VFR.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GRADUALLY RELAXING, BUT NOT GOING AWAY ENTIRELY, INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH LESS FREQUENT GUSTS TO WRAP UP THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page