654
FXUS61 KILN 230012
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
812 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL, WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL, REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO AT 23Z. THE WIND HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLIP TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA. THE MAIN AREA OF NEW CONVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS FRONT
WHERE THERE IS DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE, AND THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/NORTHEAST INDIANA. DUE TO THE GENERALLY
ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION, THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH) THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM N TO S,
RESPECTIVELY. SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 AND IN OTHER
RURAL/SHELTERED LOCALES ACROSS THE ILN FA. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE GRADUALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, GOING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT.
A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL
AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS THE PSEUDO-WARM FRONT PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY BEFORE A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC WAVE
TRANSLATES INTO THE OH VLY BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER AIR AGAIN SETTLES
BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT KIND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, IF ANY, MAY
EVOLVE THURSDAY EVENING. BUT THE SETUP WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT KDAY-KCMH-KLCK.
EXPECT THE WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR AT KILN BEFORE 01Z, AND KCVG-KLUK
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 01Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 01Z AS WELL, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OHIO/NORTHEAST INDIANA AND THESE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREFORE, EXPECT 02Z-05Z TO BE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THIS, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY
TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, GUSTING AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPP/
AVIATION...BPP
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