253
FXUS61 KILN 251138
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1)CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS MORNING AS IT PIVOTS THRU
THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LEADING TO SOME LIGHT MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW NORTH OF I-70. THIS LIGHT PCPN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS PCPN AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OHIO WHERE
THE THERMAL PROFILE IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR A P-TYPE OF SNOW PRIOR TO
RUSH HOUR. METRO ROAD MODEL INDICATES ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
AND UPPER 30S SO DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS FARTHER SOUTH.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE MOVING IN
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY
18Z THURSDAY.
MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED BUT A GENERAL
SOUTHWARD TREND CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BEING FARTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUN
INDICATING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. GEFS ONLY GIVES A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE SHOWS ONLY A VERY SPOTTY 10 TO 20
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF I-70,
AND MOST LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THRU THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 15Z.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS
A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS,WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 15-20KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, AFTER 15Z UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND THEN BECOME
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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