880
FXUS61 KILN 030014
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LEFTOVER LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MID-EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING CLOUDS.
2) AFTER THIS EVENING'S SHOWERS END, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THEN WARM BACK TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS OVER WV AND EASTERN KY
AS OF LATE FRIDAY, BUT MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY IS STILL
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS FAR SOUTHERN OH.
THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN OR STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH PROGRESS FOR DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTH, PUT AN END TO PRECIP, AND BREAK UP CLOUDS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL HEAD NORTHWARD AGAIN. AT THIS POINT, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WON'T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER
THE ILN FORECAST AREA, WITH PRECIP REMAINING TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL COOL OFF TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THANKS TO CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM ACROSS THE REGION AFTER TUESDAY, REACHING BACK TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE NORTH OF I-70, WITH
CLOUDS HANGING IN NEAR THE KY BORDER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THANKS
TO A DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. DEPENDING
UPON HOW LOW DEW POINTS CAN GET PRECEDING BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S,
WITH SOME SPOTTY FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW PRESENT NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT WITH
SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEARING AT MOST TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JKL
AVIATION...JKL
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