782
FXUS61 KILN 301709
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOORS ITEMS.
2) A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTN AND THEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA.
ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PIVOTS EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ILN/S AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL
MIXING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MIXING
WILL SUPPORT 30-35KT WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ILN/S FA. THE SETUP CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE
BELOW 40 KT ADVISORY LEVEL. HAVE CONTINUED TO MESSAGE THESE GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE ILN FA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN FA LATE TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AS
THIS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT - HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE FRONT PIVOTING
BACK TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE SHORT WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONT
FINALLY SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF ILN/S AREA WITH
A GENERAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FROM LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND .
AS THE WEATHER UNDERGOES A PATTERN CHANGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
LIKELY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SOME LOWER 80S ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW TO
ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECT TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES.
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD
OF LLWS OF 45KTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUING AT 12-15KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 18KTS WILL GUST TO 30 TO 35 KTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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