277
FXUS61 KILN 092337
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. TIMING OF CLOUD ARRIVAL IS LATER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
2) WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
3) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MOST RECENT GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LAMP, HRRR, RAP, AND 18Z SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LATER, WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MANIFESTING ITSELF INTO CLOUDS. ALSO,
WHILE THE HEFS HAS A FAIRLY ROBUST SIGNAL LATE TONIGHT, THE REFS IS
VERY MUTED. SO, THIS POTENTIAL IS TRENDING TOWARDS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN EXPECT SNOW MELT
TO ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVANCING NORTH AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT
PIVOTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVES AROUND THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GO. HREF
SHOWS 40 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN 1/4 MILE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THIS IS THE AREA THAT HAS
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HAVING PUBLIC IMPACTS DUE TO THE REDUCED
VISIBILITY. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT TODAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 30S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS A RATHER LARGE LATITUDINAL SPREAD ON THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ICON/CANADIAN MODELS
ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND GFS IS THE MOST SOUTH - WITH THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BETWEEN. WITH SO MUCH SPREAD AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH HAS BEEN
LOOKED AT WITH THE NBM SHOWING A 30 TO 40+ PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH
OR MORE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT IS OBSERVED FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
SNOW MELT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR MORE
DETAILS IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH JUST HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 12Z WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR, ENDING TOWARDS 18Z. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST SIGNALS ARE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER 18Z. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE IFR EXCEPT AT
CINCINNATI WHERE MVFR IS MORE LIKELY. A FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...
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