873  
FXUS61 KILN 042100  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
400 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN  
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MILD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START  
OUT MAINLY CLEAR. THEN, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID 20S WITH PERHAPS A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE  
NORMALLY COLDER, LOW-LYING, SHELTERED LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
THIS BACKING FROM A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHWEST  
DIRECTION, WILL MARK AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT FIRST, THEN DEEPER  
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
EVENTUALLY BRING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
ON MONDAY, MODELS SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST IN  
THE MORNING. BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME REPLACED BY  
LOWER AND MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK  
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE TRI-STATE LATE IN THE DAY MAY BE ENOUGH  
TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID  
TO UPPER 40S.  
 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHES THE REGION  
FROM THE NORTHWEST, AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE FORM OF  
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE AREA. THE  
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SLATED FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH  
THE WEAKEST OVER THE NORTHWEST. THUS, POPS WILL BE HIGHEST  
SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARMER, MOIST AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK  
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A FRONT WILL LAYOUT SW-NE OVER THE  
REGION TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE  
LOW'S PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING AN AIRMASS DISCONTINUITY WITH  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT AND WARMER,  
WETTER AIR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF IT. BY EARLY THURSDAY, ANY  
EFFECTS FROM THIS AIRMASS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE BEEN NULLIFIED  
WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE  
DAY.  
 
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA, WITH  
ANOTHER STRONGER SHOT OF RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING  
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS ENERGETIC  
SYSTEM GUIDANCE IS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL WITH REGARDS TO  
TEMPERATURES, IF ONLY SLIGHTLY. EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE  
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT HAVE A STRONG  
CORRELATION WITH THE MASS FIELDS.  
 
THE FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SAT WILL PASS EAST THROUGH THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PERMIT THE NEXT  
SYSTEM TO ENTER FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH'S RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION  
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS  
AROUND 06Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH 5  
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.  
 
ON MONDAY, RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH  
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOIST LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL ALLOW CEILINGS  
TO LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH  
SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR KCVG TOWARD 00Z. A FEW LIGHT  
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. SURFACE  
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS AROUND  
15Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME POCKETS OF LIFR CONDITIONS ALSO  
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...FRANKS  
AVIATION...HICKMAN  
 
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