270
FXUS61 KILN 132334
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
734 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
2) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS GIVEN FAIRLY ROBUST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR (50+ KNOTS WINDS ALOFT) AND LOW TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE (~1000 J/KG MLCAPE). HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOWER END AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE
WITHOUT MUCH VEERING IN THE WIND PROFILE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT IN ANY STRONG STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
STORMS TO OCCUR IS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES END THIS EVENING AFTER FROPA. THERE
WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING THE RETURN OF WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES START TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-70 AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH LIKELY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR RAINFALL. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD
SUPPORT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PERIODICALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.
TUESDAY LIKELY FEATURES THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOWLY MODERATE WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKING INTO
THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY NOT EXPERIENCE FROPA
UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM THE N TO NE BY DAYBREAK. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PASS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KTS
AND CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE ENE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CLARK
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