889
FXUS61 KILN 060531
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
131 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OHIO MOVING EAST ON
MONDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION, AS
NOTED BY THE 00Z ILN SOUNDING (PWATS AROUND 1.6 IN). HOWEVER, LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS, AND WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW MOVING AND
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES PERSIST FOR TUESDAY
DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE WE DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2).
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION,
IT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA, INHIBITING INSOLATION.
THIS, COMBINED WITH A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN SOME
VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK
WEEK REACH THE MID 80S MON AND TUES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
BUILD IN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL SITES HAVE AT LEAST
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LATE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN
SITES HAVE MVFR TO IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
STRATUS AND FOG BOTH LIFT SLOWLY MONDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED CIG CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE TRICKY, AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS SITTING RIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, SO NORTHERN TAF SITES
HAVE NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE SOUTHERN TAF SITES HAVE MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCES SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN CENTRAL
OHIO AND THEN IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AS SUCH, HAVE PROB30D A -TSRA AT
CMH LCK LUK AND CVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM AT DAY OR ILN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.
STORMS DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND ADDITIONAL
STRATUS BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK... MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA
AVIATION...AIENA
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