098
FXUS61 KILN 021011
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2023
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BY MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
PWAT ANOMALIES ONLY ABOUT 50% OF SEASONAL NORMS (PWAT OF 0.48"
ON 02.00 KILN RAOB) AND DPS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 50S (IN CENTRAL OH THROUGH NE
KY) TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EC IN AND WC OH AND THE TRI-STATE.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST, SUNNIEST, AND DRIEST
DAYS THIS REGION HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. HAVE TRENDED AWAY
FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR FCST DPS (AND RH) DURING THE DAYTIME
AND HAVE INCORPORATED SOME NBM 10TH PERCENTILE AND HI-RES
SOLUTIONS TO BRING DPS DOWN A BIT DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
THEREFORE, WITH THE VERY REAL POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS TEMPS
ECLIPSING THE 90-DEGREE MARK COINCIDING WITH DPS IN THE 40S, WE
DID SOME DIGGING TO DETERMINE /JUST/ HOW RARE SUCH AN OCCURRENCE
IS LOCALLY.
FOR A TEMP OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREES AND A SFC DP LESS THAN 50
DEGREES... FOR CINCINNATI (KCVG), THE LAST /HOURLY/ OBSERVATION
TO MEET THIS THRESHOLD WAS A SINGLE HOUR IN JULY OF 2012 AND THE
PREVIOUS BEFORE THAT WAS IN 2007. FOR COLUMBUS (KCMH), THE LAST
HOURLY OBSERVATION OCCURRENCE WAS FOR A SINGLE HOUR IN
SEPTEMBER OF 2010, AND THE PREVIOUS SUCH INSTANCE WAS ALL THE
WAY BACK IN 1998. FOR DAYTON (KDAY), THE LAST HOURLY OBSERVATION
WITH A TEMP OF 90 AND A SFC DP LESS THAN 50 WAS IN SEPTEMBER OF
1999. SO THE FEAT OF HITTING 90+ DEGREES WITH A DP DEPRESSION
OF AT LEAST 40 DEGREES IN RELATIVELY RARE IN THIS AREA, BUT VERY
POSSIBLE TODAY.
ALL OF THIS DRY AIR DOES MEAN THAT RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW
25% FOR MANY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LUCKILY, DESPITE THE
TREMENDOUSLY DEEP DIURNAL MIXING, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT, WITH A NE WIND AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY AS A /SLIGHTLY/
HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM WRN CANADIAN WILDFIRES
FILTERS IN FROM THE NE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
A FEW CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE N/NE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS TONIGHT DIP
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AREA-WIDE AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO ADVECT /BACK/ INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR/NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SW OF THE LOCAL AREA BY NOONTIME SATURDAY, WITH A
VERY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER LL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN A
NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR SHIFTING TO THE SW THROUGH THE HEART OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BETTER LL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SB INSTBY TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI-
STATE THROUGH WC OH AND NE KY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE PIVOTING
TO THE SW ON THE SE FLANK OF THE SPRAWLING MIDLEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, PROVIDING PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
FORCING TO INITIATE A FEW SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA IN THESE AREAS WHERE
SOME INSTBY CAN MATERIALIZE. HAVE SEEN ENOUGH TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE TO ADD A SLGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES IN
JUST HOW MUCH INSTBY DEVELOPS (OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY
HOW MUCH AFTERNOON DPS ARE ABLE TO AGAIN MIX DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON). NEVERTHELESS, DO THINK WE WILL HAVE A FEW RETURNS ON
OUR RADAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL DESPITE THE TREMENDOUSLY
STEEP/DEEP LL LAPSE RATES. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR, DESPITE AN
INVERTED-V SOUNDING, THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER UPDRAFTS
WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED/MAINTAINED LONG ENOUGH (GIVEN
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT) TO INITIATE MUCH DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM WHEN THEY COLLAPSE. THIS BEING SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER CORE THAT
BRIEFLY MATERIALIZES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ANOTHER PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DIURNAL IN NATURE, DIMINISHING BY SUNSET. SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AN OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE,
WITH A RIDGING STRUCTURE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING FEATURE, LIMITING EXTREMES IN
TEMPERATURES. THIS REGIME WILL FAVOR MORE OF A NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN THAT USHERS IN A DRIER AIR MASS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS ENERGY MAY HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE IN PCPN REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHERE FORCING IS GREATEST.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR OUR COUNTIES, ONLY HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION.
THE SINKING H5 TROUGH WILL FAVOR MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OUT OF CANADA BEGINNING TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROPAGATING
THROUGH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN PRECIP FORMATION FOR
OUR CWA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KLUK DUE
TO RIVER VALLEY BR/FG ON SATURDAY IN THE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A FEW/SCT CIRRUS FILTER IN
FROM THE NNE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WINDS BETWEEN
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page