887  
FXUS61 KILN 230253  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
953 PM EST WED JAN 22 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION  
BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY  
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
FCST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY MINOR  
TWEAKS MADE TO THE TEMP TRACES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE INFILTRATION OF THICKER CIRRUS SEEMS TO BE  
KEEPING TEMPS JUST A BIT WARMER, BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO.  
THIS BEING SAID, SOME SITES IN THE EAST, PARTICULARLY AT NEWARK  
AND LANCASTER, HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE MID 20S. OUTSIDE  
THE FAR NORTHEAST ILN FA, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY DIP  
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES, WITH LOW TO MID 20S  
FOR A FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL OHIO.  
 
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD, WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD COMPLETELY OVERCAST SKIES  
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD DESPITE A FEW  
RETURNS ON REGIONAL MOSAIC IMAGERY JUST OFF TO THE WEST. A  
FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR SHOULD STUNT PCPN CHANCES LOCALLY  
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MID AND  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WENT CLOSE  
TO THE BLEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON  
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE  
AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
IN THE FORM OF RAIN, HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY  
TEMPERATURES RISE, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF FREEZING  
RAIN AS WELL NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
STACKED SLOW MOVING LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY TO MIGRATE EAST INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WITH  
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AFFECTING THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE  
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
EXPECT FRIDAYS HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE  
MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  
 
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY A CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA A  
MIX WITH SNOW WILL BE PSBL FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN  
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND COLDEST  
TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND FREEZING, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE  
LIGHT AND LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON ROADS. CLOUDS/PCPN WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE MID 30S  
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST.  
 
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE  
FROM 35 TO 40.  
 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
30S TO MID 40S.  
 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY  
OFFERING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. EXPECT HIGHS  
ON TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH.  
 
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OFFER MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLUTION  
WITH NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OFFER SUPPORT FOR A SLOWER ONSET OF RAIN.  
THEREFORE, WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATER WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THICKENING CIRRUS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA WITH  
SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY  
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT ALL THE  
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.  
BEYOND THIS, EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID SATURATING OF THE LOW LEVELS  
FROM THE SOUTH, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH  
TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME -RA AS  
WELL, WITH KCVG AND KLUK LIKELY TO SEE SOME PCPN IMPACTING THE  
SITES TOWARD/BEYOND 00Z. HEAVIER RATES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VSBYS BEYOND THE END OF THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
LIGHT ESE WINDS AROUND 5KTS WILL GO MORE SOUTHERLY BY 18Z BEFORE  
GOING BACK MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
MAINLY STAY AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
COULD SEE THE EVENTUAL INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS,  
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 06Z FRIDAY WITH NOSING OF A LLJ NORTHEAST  
AROUND THE BROADER-SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HAVE DECIDED TO  
OMIT FROM KCVG 30-HR TAF FOR NOW UNTIL SPECIFICS ON LOCATION AND  
TIMING BECOME A BIT MORE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK  
NEAR TERM...KC/NOVAK  
SHORT TERM...NOVAK  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...KC  
 
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