826
FXUS61 KILN 270022
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
722 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPDATED AFD DUE TO THE EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DENSE FOG WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS USHERING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH CINCINNATI REACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK
AROUND NOON. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REACH THE COLUMBUS
AREA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY MOVES IN THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BACK
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT
OVERCAST SKIES RETURN THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT THERE ARE NO
EXPECTATIONS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LIKE EARLIER TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY, SLIDING FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
INITIALLY STARTING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION ONCE AGAIN. CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WON'T LAST
LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WITH
THE FRONT IS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO, SIMILAR TO
TODAY (FRIDAY).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SUNDAY NIGHT, STRONG GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY CREATING POTENTIAL
SLICK CONDITIONS, SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK AREA OF
SNOW LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVEL GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
GUSTY WINDS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. WIND GUSTS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. WITH
THE WINDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN, SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, THERE ARE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO INCREASE SNOWFALL CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
DURING THIS TIME IN ORDER TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THIS FEATURE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MESSY TAF PERIOD AS A DRY COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING IFR CIGS AND PERIODIC REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/ SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS LOW
CLOUDS BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ANTICIPATE THAT ALL
SITES WILL END UP WITH IFR CIGS BY SATURDAY EARLY HOURS. THESE WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR SATURDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY
RETURNING TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST WAS THE VSBYS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT MVFR VSBYS MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AS WIND (WHILE
DECREASING IN INTENSITY) WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO. GIVEN
THE VERY LOW CIGS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HAVE HANDLED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES, THOUGH THIS MAY NEED
TO BE AMENDED.
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY GUSTY WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS AT 30 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page