495  
FXUS61 KILN 021341  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
941 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY  
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
UPDATE...NO UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM. FORECAST  
EXPECTATIONS REGARDING DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN  
ON TRACK.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION...  
SOME DRIER AIR IS PUSHING DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING BUT  
WE HAVE SEEN SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE, MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RISING  
HEIGHTS ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY  
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO OUR AREA  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE  
BOTH SHOWING SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT ANY  
LIMITED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH  
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION, 8H TEMPS WILL  
NUDGE UP A BIT, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO TREND RATHER WARM AND DRY COMPARED  
TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A BROAD  
H5 RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS STRETCHING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.  
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, GEFS ENSEMBLE, AND THE NAM BRING A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE EAST SIDE  
OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NOTED IN THE  
MODEL BLEND BY AFTERNOON. TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THIS DISTURBANCE ARE  
SIGNIFICANT, WITH THE NAM CLEARING THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING, AND THE OTHERS  
LINGERING THE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION DURING MAX HEATING HOURS. THE  
EURO AND ITS EPS ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST UNDER STRONGER H5  
RIDGING. DECIDED TO HOLD POPS DOWN DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITHIN  
AN OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIPITATION.  
 
H5 RIDGING REINFORCES EAST FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH DRY NORTHEAST  
SURFACE FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES, SO A  
HOT, DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.  
 
BY MONDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH ON LIGHT  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH. EXPECTING A CHANCE  
OF STORMS TO BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTH WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS HUMIDITY RETURNS REGION-WIDE. ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY LINGER VERY EARLY IN THE TAF  
PERIOD AT KLUK. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...HOGUE  
AVIATION...JGL  
 
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