377
FXUS61 KILN 201052
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING CANCELLED
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
3) COOLER AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL OCCUR INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
REMAINING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. RAIN RATES DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY WHICH
ALLOWED FOR THE FLOOD WATCH TO BE CANCELLED SINCE THERE WOULD BE NO
MORE NEW FLOODING. BUT FLOODING FROM PREVIOUS RAIN WILL PERSIST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS THIS MORNING
BUT THEN PUSH SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF SOME STORMS CAN
DEVELOP, THERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INDUCING A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL
STILL BE DEEP. SO AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 21Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR. THERE WILL ALSO BE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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