707
FXUS61 KILN 211305
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, LEADING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND WITH DECENT MIXING, SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE GOOD MIXING, HAVE ALSO MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AFTERNOON RHS IN THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE. IN THE DEVELOPING WAA, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND WITH SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITIES DEVELOPING, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME MARGINAL LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN UP, SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK....MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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