967
FXUS61 KRLX 050006
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ON
TIME.
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME SEVERE, TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL
NOT HAVE HEAT HEADLINES AS SOME RELIEF WILL START AND CONTINUE
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL FOCUS ON POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND POSE A FLASH
FLOOD RISK. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA ALREADY AS INDICATED ON RADAR. SEVERE INDICES
ARE ELEVATED AND IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
IS BEING OBSERVED AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WITH CAPE CLOSE TO NEAR
4500 J/KG, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF CIN THERE WILL
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 14K FEET, HAIL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND
BEFORE MELTING, HOWEVER SMALL HAIL TO BORDERLINE LARGE HAIL
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY UNDER SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN A DOWNBURST. THE AREA IS MAINLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ISSUED BY SPC.
ANOTHER THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. PWAT VALUES APPROACHING
1.7 INCHES WILL PROVIDE HEAVY LOADED SOUNDINGS WITH ENOUGH LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG
(ANOMALOUSLY HIGH) WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS. WITH THE LACK OF
SHEAR AND STEERING FLOW ALOFT, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE UP AND
DOWN QUICKLY, HOWEVER THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE ABLE TO
SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY STORMS ARE MOVING AT 10MPH
NORTH-NORTHEAST SO VERY SLOWLY. IF STORMS HOVER OVER THE SAME
AREA AND/OR BACKBUILD AND TRAIN AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS THAT
ARE HIT REPEATEDLY. WE ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WPC SO THIS DOES SUPPORT ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
WITH CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AT WHICH POINT WILL START
TO DIMINISH AROUND 5Z. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODELS ARE THE
HI-RESW FV3 AND ARW, BUT THEY DO NOT IMPLY THAT THERE WILL BE A
LOT TO DEAL OR WORRY ABOUT WHICH IS NOT THE CASE CURRENTLY.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THINKING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HANGING AROUND WILL HELP WITH LITTLE
SUBSIDENCE AND SMALL CAPS TO KEEP STORM IN CHECK FOR THE MOST
PART ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND WEST OF THERE. IF CONVECTION
BRINGS IN ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE SOME OF THAT HIGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST AND WILL HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS OR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE FLEETS TOWARD THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WE
STILL HAVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING, HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STILL HAVING THE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WE WILL BE UNDER A "DIRTY" HIGH REGIME WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE. BY SUNDAY, WE HAVE A
SIMILAR SETUP WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS WITH
JUST A MARGINAL THREAT UNDER MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE A SLIGHT RISK WILL RESIDE WHERE
HEIGHTS LOWER AND LOW PRESSURE REPLACES OUR HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. MORE STORM POTENTIAL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER HEADLINES
WILL NOT CONTINUE AS WE DO START TO SEE SOME RELIEF ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING A FEW DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS
DECLINING AS WELL AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE BORDERLINE AT BEST WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA
GETTING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK (FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURE) IN ISOLATED AREAS, HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE ON SUNDAY WILL
DETER SOME OF THAT DAYTIME HEATING TO WHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDING THE HEADLINES OUT FURTHER. SUBSEQUENTLY,
STARTING THE NEW WORK WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
BACK TO SEASONABLE AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY SEEN THIS EVENING, BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DROP VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR AT ANY OF THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES (KPKB, KCKB). VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 04-06Z AT KCRW, KHTS, KEKN, AND KBKW.
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO
IFR AT MANY OF THE SITES AFTER 06Z. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY BY 11-13Z. SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VCTS INCLUDED AT ALL SITES FROM 18Z
SUNDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE DENSER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS SUNDAY MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M L L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS.
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ/26
AVIATION...26
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