580
FXUS61 KRLX 082328
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOADED THE LATEST NBM WHICH LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION LOOKING AT SATELLITE AND RADAR.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN UPTICK
IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE ISOLATED FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INFLUENCING THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT TO HELP PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH IS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CURRENTLY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE DUE TO PWATS CLOSE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
AND A MOISTURE FLUX OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE PREVALENT THIS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.
A LULL SHOULD BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE DURING
THE MAX HEATING TIME FRAME AND INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR
MORE CONVECTION TO IGNITE.
ANOTHER KINK IN HEIGHTS FOR THE LATE MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BRING IN SOME ENERGY AND MORE MOISTURE ALONG WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME MORNING CONVECTION POTENTIAL.
SOUTHWEST WARM AID ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY ADVECT IN A WEAK MCS INTO THE LATE
MORNING ACCORDING TO A FEW HI-RES MODELS AND THE GFS. HOWEVER,
THE REST OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW.
MONDAY IS UNDER A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AS PWATS RISE ABOVE THE 1.5 INCH THRESHOLD ONCE AGAIN
ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT OF ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL LAPSE RATES. WEAK
STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20KTS WILL MEAN THAT BACKBUILDING OR
SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN RATES PER
HOUR WHICH COULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND PROMOTE
LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.
WPC DOES HAVE US UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A SLIGHT WAS
INTRODUCED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. QUICK UP AND DOWN DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD POSE DOWNBURSTS WHICH MAY ALSO CAUSE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR DAMAGING WIND WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WITH A KINK IN HEIGHTS WHICH WILL PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THAT INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING AND MEANDERING
TO OUR NORTH. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
PLACED BY WPC FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
MAIN THREAT OF POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME REPRIEVE TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW REGIME BUILDS
IN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVENT FOG IN ALL BUT THE DEEPEST
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A CUMULUS DECK WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WHERE
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. TIMING, INTENSITY, AND LOCATION OF
FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG
EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THE
PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY/JZ
AVIATION...RPY
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