247
FXUS61 KRLX 211658
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PRIOR
PACKAGE, NO WORTHWHILE CHANGES TO MENTION HERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS
YESTERDAY, WHICH HELPS SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
2) THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE FIRST
CHANCE IS WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL DISTURBANCE, AND THE SECOND CHANCE
IS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE
MIDDLE 30S. WITH A RELAXED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD, TODAY'S WINDS ARE NOT AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY.
THIS HELPS MITIGATE THE FIRE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE, WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE FIRE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE ARE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
500-MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE MOSTLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA (AROUND 400 J/KG MLCAPE),
BUT SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV (UP TO 800 J/KG MLCAPE WED
PM). 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MOSTLY ON THE WEAK SIDE (GENERALLY 20-25
KTS). THEREFORE, WE MOSTLY EXPECT SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM 0.50-1.00 INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR OUR
CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
12-14Z WEDNESDAY, MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT 40 KTS OF LLWS FROM 05Z THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS BECOMING BREEZIER
BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AT 6-12 KTS,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT KBKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR ANTICIPATED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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