545
FXUS61 KRLX 101003
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
503 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN. A CLIPPER FRIDAY WITH MAINLY SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGS IN ARCTIC AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY UPDATES:
1) BLIZZARD WARNINGS STILL GO INTO EFFECT TODAY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS.
2) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FAYETTE,
NICHOLAS, RALEIGH, NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH, NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER, AND WYOMING COUNTIES FOR 2-4" OF SNOWFALL.
3) LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT WITH A FLASH
FREEZE.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND STRENGTHENING WINDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY
BRINGING ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW, AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 6 AM AND
TRAVERSES THE AREA IN THE USUAL WEST TO EAST FASHION. THIS
FIRST ROUND WILL BE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH (UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S)
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS, RANDOLPH, AND WEBSTER
THAT THIS WILL BE ALL SNOW UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES.
BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY (AROUND OR LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE) MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. A RAIN/
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE SLICK
ROADS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A SECOND ROUND PUSHES THROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SECOND ROUND
WILL REINTRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND USHER A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTIES IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SECOND ROUND BETWEEN 7 PM AND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
THE LATE EVENING UNTIL COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FORCE THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. A FLASH
FREEZE WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATION DEPENDENT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THIS EVENT. GENERALLY, LOOKING AT 4
TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING; 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY; THEN FINALLY TRACE TO 2
INCHES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTES WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A SECOND, STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL AREA
WIDE WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BARELY BREAK FREEZING
IN THE LOWLANDS WITH 20S AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
HEAVIEST LOOKING TO AFFECT THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A BIT OF A BREAK WILL SET UP LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH RAIN
MIXING IN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. EVENTUALLY, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH YET ANOTHER FLASH FREEZE. THIS WILL PROMPT ANOTHER CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE USUAL
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. THESE AMOUNTS
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUNDAY'S
HIGHS STAYING IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS COULD DROP INTO THE NEGATIVES. THESE TEMPERATURES
PAIRED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS COULD CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS THAT WARRANT WIND CHILL/COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT WATCHING FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER TO MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE NOT LOCKED IN ON
ONE SOLUTION.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 500 AM WEDNESDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST
SITES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES UNTIL ~14-16Z AS LOW
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES AT BKW, AND EKN. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITONS WILL FLUCTUATE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT AS A RESULT. MVFR VISIBILITY OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR IN ANY
SNOW SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, AND
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT BKW AND EKN. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
FLUCTUATE. TIMING OF CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF BLOWING SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE
AT BKW AND EKN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF GUSTS REMAIN
ELEVATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 12/10/25
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L M H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW. AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ034-515>521-525.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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