481
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, PROVIDING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN WV AND SW VA. UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK. THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES,
SO THEY MAY BE AT THEIR PEAK TEMPS FOR THE DAY, AND HOLDING
STEADY OR SLOWLY DROPPING THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES.
AS OF 425 AM MONDAY...
ALL COUNTIES IN OUR AREA HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS LINE, BUT THE LINE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS COULD
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPSLOPE
WIND FLOW WILL SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE,
ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT. THE
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION LEAVING BEHIND POSSIBLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
COURTESY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE
AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP DOWN TO ABOUT SEASONABLE AND THEN THE AREA GOES STRAIGHT
BACK INTO ANOTHER WARMING TREND BY MIDWEEK.
A SHORT BREAK UNTIL ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OUT WEST
AND IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE WE JUST HAD
THAT PROVIDED SOME SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, A
FUNNELING EFFECT DUE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEST COAST AND A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL ACT AS A FAUCET TURNING ON A MOISTURE FLUX WHICH LOOSELY
RESEMBLES AN AR (ATMOSPHERIC RIVER). THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH CORRELATES
TO BEING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH WILL MEANDER SLIGHTLY AND ACT AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND.
THERE ARE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS FOR A DECENT SETUP WITH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ANOMOUSLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE UNDER A STRONG WARMING TREND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM OUT TO THE WEST. THIS, ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE FLUX AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH HIGH VALUES OF
HELICITY AND SHEAR, WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ANOTHER THREAT OF ALL HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM THIS
FEATURE GOING INTO THURSDAY AT WHICH POINT A FRONTAL PASSAGE
FROM THE PARENT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TAKE PLACE ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET
FORMING ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDING INTO
MUCH OF THURSDAY, SO EVEN WITHOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED WITHOUT THE AID OF ANY
CONVECTION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL NOT END DUE TO THE MOISTURE FLUX STICKING
AROUND UNTIL A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL POSITION ITSELF ACROSS OUR
REGION PUSHING OUT THE RIVER OF MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
COMING DOWN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT THE MOISTURE PLUME OF THE
REGION BY SOMETIME ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACTIVE INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE A
WEAK COOLING TREND STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING BY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH END CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO CATEGORICAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL ON A
DAILY BASIS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 510 AM MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME RAIN OR
DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE, BEFORE BECOMING VFR IN ALL BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H L M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M L H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA AT TIMES MID TO LATE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...FK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
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