747
FXUS61 KRLX 211504
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS FADE TO FLURRIES TODAY. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY DAWN
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1003 AM SATURDAY...
DROPPED 10 AM ADVISORY ZONES.
AS OF 913 AM SATURDAY...
NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. DID ELECT TO ISSUE AN SPS
ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWLANDS WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY THIS
MORNING, AS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS PRODUCING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND A QUICK COATING ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY FADING TO FLURRIES OVER THE LOWLANDS THIS
MORNING, FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY THIS MORNING YIELDING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PLUME OF SNOW SHOWERS AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS ALLOWING FOR VERY
COLD (NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS) AIR TO OOZE OVER LAKE HURON WHERE
SOME NORTHERLY FETCH STILL EXISTS. THIS MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD
BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS IT CROSSES LAKE ERIE YIELDING A SOMEWHAT
NARROW PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MAY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OR JUST EAST OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXISTING HIGHLIGHTS ARE ON TRACK. SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA THIS MORNING, BUT WILL KEEP IT ALL GOING AT LEAST UNTIL THE SUN
COMES UP FOR ANY SLICK SPOTS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER PATCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING
AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, SHOULD RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY INTO
THE MID TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ONE LAST DAY BEFORE ENTERING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO
GET US ABOVE SEASONABLE BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING TO WARM UP INTO
THE NEXT PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...
STARTING MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TOWARD THE EAST
BUT WILL STILL HAVE A PRESENCE AROUND THE AREA. A CLIPPER
QUICKLY SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA ADDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER THAT, THE REGION BECOMES ACTIVE, HOWEVER
WE GET THE HELP OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO HELP US DODGE A BULLET OR TWO ALONG
THE WAY. CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE FOR THE LOWLANDS AS
AN ALL RAIN REGIME AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS CHANCES WILL REMAIN
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM SATURDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS INCREASINGLY BECOME CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE THIS
MORNING WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT
EXPECTED. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WINDS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 8-10KTS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT..
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING COULD
VARY BY A COUPLE HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L H M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ516-518-520>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ
NEAR TERM...JP/SL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page