470  
FXUS61 KRLX 241124  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
624 AM EST MON FEB 24 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONGER  
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES  
OF RAIN, SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...  
 
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO MORNING/AFTERNOON POPS TO REFLECT DRIER  
SHORT CYCLE GUIDANCE. STILL COULD SEE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA  
WITH INITIAL WAVE, ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTH, BUT NOW LOOKING LIKE  
MINIMAL ACCUMULATING RAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FURTHER  
NORTH.  
 
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...  
 
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON TRACK HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE THIS MORNING  
WITH VARYING CLOUD COVER AND A HEAVY RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN AREAS  
THAT HAVE CLEARED. MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN SHOULD SERVE TO ARREST  
ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT  
THIS IN THE CURRENT PACKAGE. COULD SEE A INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX  
IN SOME OF THE FAR SOUTHERN COLDER VALLEYS AS THE COLUMN WET  
BULBS DOWN, BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
LEADING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHING  
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AN INITIAL  
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF.  
GIVEN RATHER AN INITIALLY RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, THINKING  
MOSTLY VIRGA THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST  
WITH OUR SOUTHWEST VA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST  
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE LESSER CHANCES OF  
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN FURTHER  
NORTH AND EAST AS THE WAVE WASHES OUT, BUT ADDITIONAL VIRGA WILL  
SERVE TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN FOR THE SECOND ROUND THIS EVENING.  
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW END POPS ON THIS BACK END OF THE  
LEADING WAVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT DAY SHIFT MAY BE  
ABLE TO TRIM THIS BACK A BIT WITH A FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL AREA WIDE THIS EVENING IN WARM  
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY WITH RAIN PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL  
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WILL BE IN THE QUARTER  
TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTHWEST.  
 
GIVEN RECENT DRY WEATHER AND MODEST RAINFALL TOTALS, DO NOT  
ANTICIPATE ANY HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 246 AM MONDAY...  
 
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
RATHER FAST TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR AROUND H85 SPREADS  
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROG TO REMAIN  
QUASI-TIGHT DURING THE DAY WITH NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS  
LIKELY AT TIMES. ENOUGH DIURNAL MIXING MAY LEAD TO SOME PARTIAL  
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP BOOST SFC  
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
 
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR 40S TO  
BE COMMON FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS (ASIDE FROM THE MOUNTAINS). RATHER  
QUIET WX CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL AS LACK OF DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.  
 
MOISTURE RAPIDLY FLOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON  
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC  
COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP WED MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN  
CWA AND QUICKLY SPREAD/SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOW  
WARM TEMPS BECOME DURING THE DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF  
FROPA, BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL DURING  
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.  
 
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A FASTER FALL OF TEMPS SHOULD  
OCCUR WED NIGHT AS H85 FRONT PUSHES EAST FOLLOWED BY THE PARENT  
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS/BANDS WILL MIX  
WITH AND EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING HOW FAST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS  
OUT OF THE AREA...AND AS SUCH PRECIP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT MAY  
ULTIMATELY BE GREATER/LESSER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT FOR MANY OF  
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA (POSSIBLY FOR SE OH TOO IF  
MOISTURE STICKS AROUND LONG ENOUGH). A FEW INCHES WILL BE  
POSSIBLE FOR AREA/REGIONAL MOUNTAINS.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER COLD AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES  
WITH HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS ONLY BRIEFING REACHING/EXCEEDING THE  
FREEZING MARK. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY, BUT  
AGAIN IT'S DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG MOISTURE DOES/DOES NOT STAY  
AROUND. WENT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING ON THURSDAY,  
ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR.  
 
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FEEL RATHER FRIGID WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY  
WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPERIENCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF  
READINGS IN THE TEENS/20S WITH VALUES QUICKLY LOWERING THE  
HIGHER IN ELEVATION ONE GOES. THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES COULD  
EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF LESS THAN ZERO LATE WED NIGHT  
AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...  
 
A COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE  
CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD  
RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND; HOWEVER, MODELS DO INDICATE A  
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A BRIEF CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY ON IN  
THE WEEKEND. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE  
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
TRANSPORT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 30S TO  
LOW 40S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20S TO 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 620 AM MONDAY...  
 
VFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON  
AS VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION PROGRESSIVELY MOISTENS  
THE COLUMN. MINIMAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS GIVEN RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS  
STILL IN PLACE.  
 
THE MAIN BODY OF PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING  
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THIS SET OF TAFS WITH CEILINGS  
DECREASING TO NEAR IFR BY 06Z.  
 
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, 5 TO 9KTS FROM THE SOUTH.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING CEILINGS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE MON 02/24/20  
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...  
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RAIN AND SNOW.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RH/JP/JLB  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...RH  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...JP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page