994
FXUS61 KRLX 171007
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLACK ICE WILL LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE, WHICH ARE BE HANDLED VIA A COMBINATION OF
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EAST AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST, AFTER WHICH WILL LIKELY HANDLE MOSTLY WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ONGOING AT
LEAST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION UPDATE.
356 AM UPDATE...
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS THROUGH THE DARK AND COLDER
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS LEAD TO INCREASING INSTANCES OF SLICK ROADS
AND VEHICULAR ACCIDENTS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FARTHER WEST, WHERE ADVISORIES ARE NOT IN
EFFECT, HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED, AND ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE WILL RE-INVIGORATE
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TODAY AMID INCREASING SOLAR INSULATION
BENEATH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
LONG WAVE WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT AMID
INCREASING SOLAR INSULATION, IN TURN RESULTING IN AN AUTO-
CONVECTIVE MIXED LAYER. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOST ENHANCED UNDER MOIST TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL
BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW CUTS OFF THIS FEED EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITHIN THIS TRAJECTORY, LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS OR EVEN SNOW
SQUALLS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS. FINALLY, TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH INTERVENING HIGHS TODAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
IN THE LOWLANDS, TEENS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN, COULD ALSO HARM ANY EARLY SEASON VEGETATION GIVEN THE
RECENT WARMTH.
- 2) A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE CUTTING UP THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TODAY
DEEPENS TO AN OFF-THE-CHARTS 948 MB TONIGHT. THE STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THIS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING SLACKENS TODAY
AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY, AND ITS PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SLACKENS.
WHILE THE MAIN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM PIVOTED NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT, A
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGER LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY, PLACING THE AREA IN THE
510-520 DAM THICKNESS BELT, AND BENEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF -14
TO -15 C. THIS WILL HOLD HIGHS TODAY NEAR OR A BIT BELOW
FREEZING IN THE LOWLANDS, AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE INCREASING SOLAR
INSULATION WILL RESULT IN AN AUTO-CONVECTIVE MIXED LAYER AND
POP-CORN SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED UNDER MOIST
TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW CUTS
OFF THIS FEED EARLY THIS EVENING. WITHIN THIS TRAJECTORY,
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW BANDS OR EVEN SNOW SQUALLS ARE WILL DELIVER
THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS, EVEN BY DAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN S
TODAY, WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF HANDLING SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDS
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, AND SNOW SQUALLS WITH SNOW
SQUALL WARNINGS.
FINALLY, TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH INTERVENING HIGHS
TODAY LARGELY BELOW FREEZING, WILL LEAD TO A AN EXTENDED HARD
FREEZE WHICH COULD ALSO HARM ANY EARLY SEASON VEGETATION GIVEN
THE RECENT WARMTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETTLES DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND EXPECTED AMID PERIODIC
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS THEY
PASS. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT, CURRENTLY
PROGGED AT 30-40%, AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY PUSH 70 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY, BEFORE THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHES
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO OR A BIT NORMAL EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROMPT PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE, IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR WILL OCCUR
OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR
A VFR NIGHT TONIGHT AMID VERY DRY AIR AND MID-HIGH CLOUD
ARRIVING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY, AND THEN DIMINISH IN
ERNEST TONIGHT, BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES
LIGHT WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND ESPECIALLY TIMING OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 03/17/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ008>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-521.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ520-522-523-525-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
004.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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