028
FXUS61 KRLX 202316
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
715PM UPDATE... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
121PM UPDATE... INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR STORM NOW
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS HUNTINGTON AND CHARLESTON DURING THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- 2) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WITH A LOT OF UNKNOWNS.
- 3) SEASONABLY WARM WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER
NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OH AT MIDDAY.
HIRES MODELS SHOW A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT WORKS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND
PARTS OF WV LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT'S NOT MUCH, BUT A FEW
HUNDRED J OF CAPE WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE MAY GET AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-64
CORRIDOR BEFORE EVERYTHING STABILIZES OVERNIGHT LEAVING JUST
SOME PATCHY FOG TO PESTER LOCATIONS THAT GET AN EVENING
DOWNPOUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SPAWNING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS REGARDING HOW WELL THESE STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE EARLY, BUT WARMER, MORE UNSTABLE AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD BE A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO THURSDAY, WHERE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RISE
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING STORMS TO REMAIN STRONG AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING WHAT IS NORMALLY A NOT SO FAVORABLE
TIME OF DAY.
UNCERTAINTY THEN BLEEDS OVER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY AS SOME
MODELS, I.E. THE NAM, SHOW VERY LITTLE MORNING ACTIVITY WHICH
ALLOWS US TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY INCREASING THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE RRFS GIVE MORE
PLAY TO THE MORNING ACTIVITY WITH NOT AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY. THESE DETAILS WILL BE WORKED OUT IN TIME, BUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY,
PUSHING TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND REPEATING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEFINITELY POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS HIT HARD WITH
RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK BUT WE
REMAIN CLOSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WANTS TO HANG OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT IN
PLACE, NO BIG WARMUP CAN OCCUR AND DISTURBANCES CAN PERIODICALLY
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY AS WE GET TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IF THEY DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL.
WINDS BECOME CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE MORE
EXTENSIVE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 12 TO 14Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR OR WORSE POSSIBLE IN FOG FOLLOWING ANY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...20
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