300
FXUS61 KRLX 091040
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
540 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER WEATHER TODAY WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WINTRY WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED. ANOTHER
FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY WITH MORE SNOW AND A DEEP FREEZE EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 540 AM TUESDAY...
GOING TO EXTEND THE SPS FOR SLICK ROADS AND BLACK ICE UNTIL 10
AM TO COVER THE MORNING COMMUTE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, SO
LOCATIONS THAT SAW SNOW YESTERDAY WILL EXPERIENCE HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE LARGELY TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. BLACK ICE FORMATION IS LIKELY FROM REFREEZING OF ANY
WATER/MELTED SNOW, SO SURFACES WILL BE SLICK. ISSUED STATEMENTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL 6 AM HIGHLIGHTING HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS FROM BLACK ICE AND ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS. CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED WHEN TRAVELING THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT GLOOMY
STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS SUPPOSED TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY
ALLOWING FOR LOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP AND SCATTER WHILE ALSO
WARMING TEMPERATURES SOME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. IF THE WARM FRONT IS DELAYED THEN LOW
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...
A BIT OF A COMPLEX SCENARIO SETS UP IN THE SHORT TERM AS A COLD
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA, BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT HI-RES
MODELS AND THE NAM ARE STARTING TO SIDE WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4
AND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES OF POCAHONTAS, RANDOLPH,
AND WEBSTER COUNTIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
THAT SAID, ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
ELSEWHERE WILL BE RE-EXAMINED TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HOWEVER
INCREASING FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW THAT
REDUCES VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LOWLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
IN THE 40S, WHILE THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL STAY LOCKED
INTO THE 30S WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN.
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE CRASH AND FLASH FREEZE. LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COLDER. THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, WITH THE MOUNTAINS RANGING
BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS AND UPPER 20S. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...
ACTIVE AND FRIGID WEATHER WILL BE A STAPLE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TAKE AIM AT OUR AREA SUSTAINING RAIN
AND SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY. MODELS DO NOT
ENTIRELY AGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT, SO THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXPECTED.
A NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY'S HIGHS. CURRENT GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
LOWLANDS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
WHICH KEPT THE AREA IN THE 20S. THERE IS NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR
ALOFT ON SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY WITH LESS -20C TEMPERATURES
BEING SHOWN.
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIGID AND BITTER TEMPERATURES REMAINS,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS BEING PROJECTED. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS COULD WARRANT SOME WIND CHILL HEADLINES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 525 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.
CEILINGS RAPIDLY BREAK UP AND SCATTER AFTER ~18Z AS A WARM FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SSW'RLY, BUT WILL BE INCREASING BY ~18Z
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A
LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING WITH 40-50 KNOT CROSSOVER
WINDS. ALLOWED LLWS IN THE TAF AT A FEW SITES WHERE SURFACE
WINDS WERE NOT AS GUSTY AS THE CROSSOVER WINDS AT ABOUT 1K-2K
FEET AGL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SOME SITES
MAY VARY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 12/09/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H M L H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M H M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH RAIN AND SNOW. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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