846
FXUS61 KRLX 211735
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1235 PM EST THU FEB 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY BECOMING SUNNY, WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DRY PERIODS UNDER SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 50S. FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT SHOULD BRING BACK PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON PREVIOUS
RAINFALL/SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, ANOTHER FLOOD
WATCH IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND WPC HAS
GONE AHEAD AND PUT SOUTHERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL ALLOW
THE DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY NECESSARY FLOOD WATCHES CONCERNING
THIS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO MOVE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM,
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. SUSPECT ANOTHER
AREA WIDE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER, AND MILD WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
DRIER WEATHER FINALLY EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY
MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND WEAK FLOW.
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL THEN RESULT IN
LOWERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN THE
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR SOUTHERN WV
COUNTIES AROUND 06 UTC AND THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 08 UTC.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY
SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15 UTC.
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BETWEEN 07 UTC & 15 UTC.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
COUNTIES
RIDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL IN THE FORM OS AS E RI
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. THEN, TURNING MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ005>007-013>015-024>027-033-034-515>520.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ083-086-087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH
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