049  
FXUS61 KRLX 270310  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1010 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN WITH A HIGHER ELEVATION WINTRY MIX TONIGHT  
INTO TOMORROW. A STRONGER WAVE CROSSES SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A  
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1005 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT AND ONLY HAD TO FRESHEN UP POPS  
AND QPF TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.  
TEMPERATURES SEEMED TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT ALREADY, THEREFORE  
RAISED THEM BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO  
REFLECT THE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE. A LOT OF THE  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS SETTLED DOWN BUT THERE ARE SOME CHANCES  
LEFT AROUND COLD SPOTS TO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN AND THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS ARE STILL RECEIVING LIGHT SNOWFALL. THEREFORE, THE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW.  
 
AS OF 705 PM FRIDAY...  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY HAD TO MODIFY POPS JUST  
SLIGHTLY TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.  
 
AS OF 455 PM FRIDAY...  
 
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER AREAS NEAR AND ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.  
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO 34F AND A WINTRY MIX HAS BEGAN,  
THEREFORE HAD TO ADD IN SOME SNOW AND RAIN TO THE MIX AS WELL AS  
SOME FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE  
TO DROP BY A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO  
REPRESENT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. AS WARMING TAKES  
PLACE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THE CHANGEOVER TO AN ALL  
RAIN REGIME WILL COMMENCE. JUST SOME PATCHY ICE ACCUMULATIONS  
ARE LIKELY WHICH MAY POSE A HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THREAT, HOWEVER THE  
SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT  
TO TRAVEL AS WELL ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS OR WALKWAYS IN THE AREAS  
UPDATED IN THE FORECAST.  
 
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...  
 
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS  
A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION  
WILL FALL AS RAIN, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE  
MOUNTAINS, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN BY TOMORROW  
MORNING. A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR IN THE  
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TRANSITION, WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET  
POSSIBLE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WITH UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHEST  
PEAKS. HAVE LOWERED THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AS THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS  
LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY STAYING MORE ON  
THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER STILL NOT RULING FREEZING RAIN OUT  
COMPLETELY AS AREAS THAT DO REACH COOL ENOUGH MAY HAVE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO OCCUR. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF  
IMPACTS WITH THE ICE, BUT A LIGHT GLAZE COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE  
FOR THE AREAS UNDER THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND COULD LEAD  
TO SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS, SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT  
THROUGH TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT, THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
WILL MOSTLY BE ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT HAVE  
KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIP IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS  
MOISTURE LINGERS AND COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN. IT IS  
POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A BREAK OR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER  
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA.  
 
LATER TONIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN, BRINGING INCREASING  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND MOSTLY AFFECTING  
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CHANCES WILL  
DIMINISH BY TOMORROW MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO  
HAVE A BREAK IN RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THE  
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A  
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THESE  
AREAS, GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THESE  
DISTURBANCES, CURRENTLY EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH  
FOR THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GRADUALLY  
DECREASING UP TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE  
NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY WATER ISSUES THROUGH  
SATURDAY, WITH MORE OF A FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS  
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MID 20S TO  
MID 30S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE  
IN MID 50S TO LOW 60S TOMORROW, WITH MID 40S TO 50S FOR THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 335 AM FRIDAY...  
 
WAVE AFTER WAVE BRINGS COPIOUS RAINFALL THIS PERIOD WHICH,  
TOGETHER WITH THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, SPELLS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.  
 
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY  
MORNING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING BY THE  
START OF THE PERIOD, 12Z SATURDAY, ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES AND  
EASTERN SLOPES, AS THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR IS ERODED THERE BY  
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
 
MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING MAXIMIZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH,  
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH THAT OVER A ROUGHLY 12-HOUR  
PERIOD ENDING MIDDAY SATURDAY.  
 
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, AND  
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST,  
RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
ESPECIALLY NORTH.  
 
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN CROSSES  
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO BE STRONGER AND MORE  
AMPLIFIED, AND THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SETS UP FARTHER  
NORTH COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR, A KEY FACTOR IN THE  
HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT THIS WEEKEND. THE MODEL ENVELOP FOR THE  
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE RANGES FROM CENTRAL TO  
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AN H85 50 KT FEED  
CRANKING PW VALUES TO 1.25 INCHES OR BETTER.  
 
SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE CAN DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE  
AXIS OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST MOISTURE, WHERE H85 THETA E GETS TO  
320K OR BETTER WITH DEW POINTS APPROACHING 10C AT THAT LEVEL.  
THUS HAVE ADDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, GENERALLY PUSHING THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST. HOWEVER, ONE LAST WAVE ALONG THAT COLD FRONT MAY BRING ONE  
LAST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK STREAMS  
OVER THE EDGE.  
 
THE STORM TOTAL QPF FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS CLOSE TO  
CENTRAL GUIDANCE, AND REFLECTS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM CLOSE TO AN  
INCH NORTHWEST TO OVER THREE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS DEPICT A DISTINCT NORTHERN  
MAXIMA OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH  
AMOUNTS OF TWO TO IN SOME CASES THREE INCHES OR BETTER. THIS  
COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN  
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND STRONG STREAM AND RIVER FLOW COMING OUT  
OF THE RECENT WINTER WEATHER STRETCH.  
 
VERY DRY AIR BRINGS STOUT CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST  
ON MONDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CENTRAL GUIDANCE, EXCEPT A BIT HIGHER  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1130 AM FRIDAY...  
 
MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,  
WITH A REINFORCING MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT FROM PUSHING  
THROUGH LATER MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS  
WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THIS  
SECOND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS BEING COLDER THAN THE  
CANADIAN OR ECMWF.  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR  
TUESDAY.  
 
MODELS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF  
TRIES TO MOVE A LOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE CANADIAN KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN US BUT DOES PUSH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER  
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH OF  
THE AREA. THIS IN TURN SETS UP MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS  
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY  
PARTICULAR SOLUTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...  
 
AS CONDITIONS WORSEN FROM BORDERLINE MVFR TO MVFR OR LOW MVFR THE  
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING AS IFR CIGS BECOME  
DOMINATE. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND NOT CAUSE MUCH  
HAVOC ON VIS RESTRICTIONS, MAYBE JUST SOME TEMPORARY MVFR UNDER  
PROLONGED HEAVIER SHOWERS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHALL REMAIN MILD  
AS FLOW WEAKENS. WITH FLOW WEAKENING NEAR BKW THERE COULD BE  
SOME LLWS NEAR THE TERMINAL DURING AFTERNOON AND THIS WAS  
MENTIONED IN THE TAF.  
 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE SITES, HOWEVER  
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR BKW TO SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST. EKN WILL CONTINUE TO  
ENDURE SOME LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY BRING VIS DOWN TO LOW MVFR  
UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE. SOME MORE RAIN MAY  
SNEAK INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE MORNING ALTHOUGH BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON A LULL WILL RESIDE UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS  
MORE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM TAFS.  
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY VARY AT EKN/BKW DEPENDING ON HOW  
FAST TEMPERATURES WARM UP.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SAT 02/27/21  
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14  
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY L H H M H H M M H M H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L H H H H H M H  
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H M H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H M M  
 
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING  
FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ516-518-  
520-522>524-526.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING  
FOR OHZ086-087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING  
FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING  
FOR VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/CG  
NEAR TERM...JZ/CG  
SHORT TERM...TRM  
LONG TERM...RPY  
AVIATION...JZ  
 
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