331
FXUS61 KRLX 040739
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECOMING BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WHICH CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ARRIVE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING MID 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
REACH MID 20S. AN ABSENCE OF STRONG WINDS WILL, HOWEVER, HELP TO
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BY A PASSING WARM
FRONT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE LOWLANDS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY AND BREEZY AS THE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE THEN FACILITATES DRY WEATHER AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
RAIN IS PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT, LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH
MAY SUSTAIN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO MONDAY.
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
SNOW SHOULD START TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS COULD ALSO
RECEIVE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM TUESDAY...
VFR SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AMID LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD BEGIN TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAX BEFORE DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF FOG
AND SEVERITY OF RESTRICTIONS IS LOW.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIFT BY AROUND 14Z, THEN VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10KTS. GUSTS
INTO THE TEENS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW FOR FOG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 11/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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