325
FXUS61 KRLX 301705
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 17Z.
THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE OVERNIGHT
PACKAGE. NO WORTHWHILE CHANGES TO MENTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH CALM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, A CONTRAST FROM ALL
OF THE RAIN THAT WAS SEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND ADDITIONAL RAIN IS NEEDED
TO ALLEVIATE THESE DROUGHT CONCERNS.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (GENERALLY LESS THAN
30%) OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY PRESSES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTERACTS WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION, SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN (10-30%) EXIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY WITH LINGERING 500-MB
ENERGY ALOFT. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, AND EVEN THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK,
COMBINED WITH CALM AND CLEAR NIGHTS, PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE GROUND HEATS UP
AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE DEW POINT. AS SUBSEQUENT DRY
DAYS ALLOW THE GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO PROGRESSIVELY DRY
OUT, VALLEY FOG WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LESS PERSISTENT AND
NOTICEABLE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE. HOWEVER, A FEW-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KCRW AND KEKN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
(06Z TO 12Z). BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN CALM OVERNIGHT,
AND WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DENSITY OF FOG AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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