056
FXUS61 KRLX 141749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH
TO INCLUDE THE METRO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SLIGHT RISK NOW ENCOMPASSES A PORTION OF PERRY COUNTY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO TIMING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.
2.) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND ISOLATED
90S POSSIBLE MID-WEEK.
3.) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
ANOMALOUS HEAT, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE, BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT DRY DEAD
FUELS.
4.) A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL END THE
HEATWAVE, BRINGING A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FROST BY MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING TO MODEST LEVELS NEAR 35KT THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. WHILE CAPPING REMAINS A CONCERN NEAR
H700, DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE INHIBITION ACROSS THE
NORTH. MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 500-1000
J/KG, SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS. GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WITH
SURFACE-TO-H500 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, MARGINALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH SEMI-DISCRETE
CELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK AREA
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER SOUTH TO THE METRO VALLEY.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN REMAINS ESTABLISHED WITH A STRONG
590DAM RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
DAILY, ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS ARE
SPECIFICALLY CHALLENGED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHEN
H850 TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN 14C AND 16C, SUPPORTING SURFACE
VALUES NEAR 90. SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT PROBABLY TOUGH SLEDDING FOR ANYTHING TO SURVIVE
WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LOW
LEVELS. MAINTAINED WHAT ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC CENTRAL
GUIDANCE POPS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FIRE DANGER REMAINS ENHANCED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WORSEN WITH THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
AND 30S THROUGH SATURDAY (MINUS TODAY). COMBINED WITH DAILY
SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AND VERY DRY FINE FUELS, RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN LEAF LITTER AND DEAD GRASSES IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY RAPIDLY INCREASED CANOPY COVERAGE ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S.. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE 50-60
PERCENT RANGE. WHILE QPF HAS LOOKED LEAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS, THIS
SYSTEM OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL RAIN IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS, WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RETREAT TO
THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AWAY FROM MAJOR RIVERS SEEING FROST POTENTIAL BY MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (18Z-00Z) MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKE PKB AND CKB. INCLUDED A
MIX OF TEMPO/PROB30 TSRA AND VCTS DEPENDING ON CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 22KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING TO 5KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO
MAINTAINING LOW- LEVEL FLOW AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CHALLENGED AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 83 / 88 (2018) | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 84 / 89 (1976) |
HTS | 84 / 87 (1941) | 88 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 86 / 87 (1976) |
CKB | 83 / 87 (2018) | 87 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) | 79 / 88 (1969) |
PKB | 82 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) | 81 / 89 (1976) |
BKW | 76 / 83 (2018) | 82 / 82 (2012) | 80 / 84 (2002) | 78 / 84 (1976) |
EKN | 80 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 81 / 85 (2012) | 78 / 87 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------
SAT, 4/18 |
---------------------
CRW | 89 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 89 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 85 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 87 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 84 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 84 / 88 (1976) |
---------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
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