773  
FXUS61 KRLX 190633  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
233 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...  
 
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SW.  
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR ALL GRIDS, HOWEVER  
DID DROP DEW POINTS SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR IN  
THE MID LEVELS. WITH THIS IN MIND, ALSO BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS  
UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE CONSENSUS BLEND NUMBERS ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 222 AM THURSDAY...  
 
DRY SPELL CONTINUES UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.  
SINCE NO RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS, SOILS ARE  
VERY DRY AND VEGETATION WILL BEGIN TO SUFFER. THE OUTLOOK FOR  
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS CALLS DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
CONDITIONS.  
 
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH HEATING, THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY ALOFT TO ALLOW ONLY AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 222 AM THURSDAY...  
 
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. WITH AN INCREASE  
IN WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES, A THREAT FOR  
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY COULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, RED FLAG  
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK, MOIST-STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY  
INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE SOME RELIEVE IN PRECIPITATION.  
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE  
DRY SPELL.  
 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY  
TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...  
 
QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES  
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. REMOVED IFR FOG  
FROM EKN, OPTING FOR JUST SOME SHALLOW MVFR FOG. DRY AIR IS IN  
PLACE, AND SOME FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT  
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AT EKN.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE THU 09/19/19  
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...  
EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY  
AT EKN.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL  
NEAR TERM...MZ  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...MZ  
 
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