216
FXUS61 KRLX 161919
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TODAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL. HAVE REFINED POPS
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT TO BETTER REPRESENT THE LATEST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
2) SUMMERLIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BIG COOL DOWN WILL THEN
ARRIVE THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE AREA. THE REGION REMAINS QUITE
STABLE AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS A MCV, CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY, SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
IN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAINS WITH THIS NEXT ROUND, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW AS THERE LIKELY WILL NOT BE MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LIFTS/DISSIPATES SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE, GIVING WAY TO A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AMID MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE STEADILY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY, WITH MONDAY/TUESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. DID TWEAK HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE FOR THESE
DAYS, HOWEVER. RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN AT A FEW SITES DURING
THIS STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER. MORE DETAILS ON CLIMATE RECORDS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/MONDAY SAVE ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN VIA ANABATIC
CONVERGENCE. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARDS/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FRONT
EITHER STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, OR EVEN LIFTS BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
AT PRESENT, SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING PERHAPS VERY BRIEF
MVFR VSBY AT TIMES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT/DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT (AFTER ~ 2Z) CENTRAL/NORTH THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 13Z.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER SAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT GIVEN ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT OVERALL, CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION/INTENSITY IS QUITE LOW. SOME RESTRICTIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND COULD BE BREEZY AT
TIMES. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 5/17 | MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 88 / 91 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1982) | 92 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 89 / 95 (1908) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 84 / 90 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1962) | 91 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 86 / 94 (1962) | 90 / 95 (1962) | 92 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 86 (1962) | 84 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 82 / 87 (2017) | 86 / 89 (1911) | 88 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...GW
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