848  
FXUS61 KRLX 201832  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
232 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM  
THE NORTH TUESDAY, THEN REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST  
THIS PERIOD. AFTER MAKING SHOWERS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM  
ITS POSITION OVER THE HTS TRI-STATE AREA, IT DRIFTS EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
SHOWERS WERE MOST NUMEROUS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND IN  
AN AREA BENEATH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A  
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAVE FROM  
WEST TO EAST AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, AND THEN SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WAVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST  
AREA.  
 
THE COLD CORE ALOFT, ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
LOW, DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN ACROSS THE  
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS MAKES SNOW SHOWERS A  
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, BUT WITH  
ACCUMULATION UNLIKELY AS SNOWSHOE JUST ABOUT GETS DOWN TO  
FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE AREA ON  
SUNDAY, SO CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. HOWEVER, LACK OF  
FORCING, AND LIGHT FLOW LIMITING UPSLOPE EFFECTS, WILL ALLOW  
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO WANE.  
 
BLENDED ON NEAR TERM, CONSENSUS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR  
TEMPERATURES, WITH CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL RANGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, WITH SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES WARMING CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,  
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STAY NEAR  
THE REGION UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY,  
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF  
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE VARIES BETWEEN MODELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...  
 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BILLOW UP BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL  
LOW OVER THE AREA, CENTERED AROUND THE HTS TRI-STATE AREA. THE  
SHOWERS WERE IN TWO MAIN BANDS. ONE WAS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH  
BISECTING THE STATE OF WV FROM BKW TO CRW TO PKB. THESE WILL  
TEND TO REBUILD FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE  
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE BUILDING / FILLING EASTWARD ACROSS CKB AND  
EKN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BAND WAS OVER THE HTS TRI-  
STATE AREA, WHICH WAS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BEFORE  
GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH SUNSET. SO, SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY OF  
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CLOUD BASED SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3500 FEET.  
 
THE SHOWERS WILL WANE THROUGH SUNSET, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AND THE SUN SETS. STRATOCU WILL  
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THOUGH, WITH BASES SETTLING THROUGH THE  
MVFR BRACKET, AND IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE BACK  
UP THROUGH THE MVFR BRACKET SUNDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY, AS SOLAR  
HEATING DEEPENS THE MIXING LAYER. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WV, GIVEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND  
LIGHT TO CALM FLOW.  
 
SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO CALM TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT WEST ON  
MONDAY, ALL BENEATH LIGHT SOUTHWEST ALOFT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS  
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY VARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04  
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H L H M H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H L M M H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M M H  
 
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND / OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF IFR AT TIMES IN THUNDERSTORMS  
MIDWEEK, BEGINNING UP NORTH AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/MZ  
NEAR TERM...TRM  
SHORT TERM...RPY  
LONG TERM...RPY  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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