353
FXUS61 KRLX 010156 CCA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
856 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED LOW PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS SE OH
AND WV LOWLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOISTURE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ARCTIC AIR PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
CHILLS AT FRIGID LEVELS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- 2) HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO SHALLOW LAKE
MOISTURE IN THE ARCTIC AIR. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- 3) FINALLY EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE MARGINALLY ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY AT
LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- 4) MORE ARCTIC AIR ON THE WAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD COLD CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS WEEKEND,
AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL SNOWSTORM
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND THEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C AND H925 TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES DROP TO AS LOW AS -
22C AT H85 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND -18C AT H925 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, BEFORE RELAXING ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT H85, AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
THIS SPELLS WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT, SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO INN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LOCALLY
ELSEWHERE, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL STORM AND
THE HIGH KEEPS ENOUGH WIND GOING TO, TOGETHER WITH CLOUDS,
PRECLUDE IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES, AND ALMOST ANY WIND AT ALL, WILL SEND WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, AND TENS TO MID 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT.
WIND CHILLS RECOVER ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS ALL
BUT THE HIGHEST RIDGES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EQUALLY COLD AS TONIGHT IN AN ACTUAL TEMPERATURE SENSE, BUT IT WILL
BE CALM ACROSS ALL BUT THE HIGHER RIDGES, WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL DIP
INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE TONIGHT, WITH
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION THE MOUNTAIN WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES ON SUNDAY PERSISTING
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS FINALLY WEAKEN THERE.
WARM ADVECTION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS COULD GET TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE WINTER STORM LAST SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHALLOW LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
SATURATED TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO H85-H925 AIR WILL BRING A
POSSIBILITY FOR HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO FLUFFY SNOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THIS SATURATED LAYER IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TEMPERATURES BENEATH A DEEP SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION PRODUCING AT LEAST TRACE SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE EXTREME COLD,
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS COULD EXCEED 25:1. THIS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK
HALF-INCH OF VERY LIGHT FLUFF, POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGHER DOWNWIND
OF POWER PLANT THERMAL PLUMES AND ON NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
ENHANCEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A BREAK IN THE SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS, AS
HIGHS COULD GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD GET ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE ON THAT NEXT SYSTEM, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MIDSTREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW THAT PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD START AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN GO OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT, UNDER COVER OF DARKNESS, AND IN COLDER AIR RETURNING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND, CONSEQUENTLY, SO ARE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THAT COLDER AIR IS WHAT KEEPS HIGHS BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN KEEPS
HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
NEXT WEEK ENDS WITH MID AND NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
AND CONSPIRING TO BRING YET ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REASSERTS
ITSELF OUT WEST. THIS SETS UP A VERY COLD START TO NEXT WEEKEND, AND
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED YET AGAIN.
ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS,
WOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES UNDER COVER OF DARKNESS, AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TIME OF WRITING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS INDICATE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE FORM OF A STRATOCUMULUS DECK, STREAMING SOUTH INTO
SE OH AND WV. FROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER CAPABLE TO PRODUCE FLURRIES ACROSS WV DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE GREAT LAKES ARE NOT
COMPLETELY FROZEN, AND MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY REACH
PORTIONS OF SE OH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TEMPORARILY TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KTS AT BKW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW COULD BECOME GUSTY AT EKN
AS WELL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD OVERSPREAD THE LOWLANDS
TONIGHT. SNOW FLUFF TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES
BELOW 2SM DESPITE THE LOW WATER CONTENT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 02/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H M H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-521-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ520-522>524-
526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...TRM/ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ
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