166  
FXUS61 KRLX 020040  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
840 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EXITS EAST. MAINLY DRY  
WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. HOT  
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...  
 
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR MUCH  
OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING ONWARD, WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AT THIS POINT ACROSS OUR VA/WV ZONES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
AS OF 545 PM TUESDAY...  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE  
OF/ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY  
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA  
INVOF THE OHIO RIVER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA HAS  
LARGELY MUTED THE SEVERE THREAT, WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT  
THIS POINT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO CHARLESTON SOUTH/EAST. GUSTY  
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH OVER THE  
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING OF THE SEVERE VARIETY.  
 
THE BIGGER STORY HAS BEEN THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA, WITH 1-3"+ FROM THE CHARLESTON METRO WEST INTO PORTIONS  
OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS HAS RESULTED  
IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. THE CHANCE FOR  
HIGH WATER ISSUES FURTHER SOUTH/EAST REMAINS, BUT SHOULD BE  
MORE ISOLATED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY  
NOW. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, WITH THE CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS LINGERING THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS  
TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE IN TERMS OF UPDATED POPS, DECREASED  
CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ALONG  
WITH THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE  
EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* COLD FRONT CROSSES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
* HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPROUT UP  
ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS  
MORNING. ACTIVITY THEN CONTINUES AS THE FRONT SLIDES TOWARDS THE  
OHIO RIVER LATER TODAY AND THEN CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
TONIGHT.  
 
AROUND 1.75 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD PROMPT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING,  
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT WERE IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN EARLIER  
TODAY. SOME STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WARM, MOIST, AND  
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, THEN HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWS DRIER  
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THAT  
BEING SAID, RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY POINT:  
* HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WORK WEEK.  
 
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY PASS OVERHEAD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS  
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN STARTS TO EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALLOWS  
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE BENEATH THE BUILDING  
RIDGE, WITH HOT CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD JUST IN TIME FOR THE  
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* HOT AND HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND.  
* BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.  
 
EXPECT HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH  
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO  
RELINQUISH CONTROL NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE WEATHER PATTERN  
REMAINS MORE ACTIVE AS A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST  
DURING THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AS EARLY AS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE  
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. MORE ROBUST  
RIDGING COULD SUSTAIN DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE  
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS VA/WV WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY  
DIMINISH AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT  
TONIGHT. WHILE BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER  
SHOWERS, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE CIG/VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING FOG / LOW STRATUS, WITH MVFR/IFR  
(OR WORSE) EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AREA-WIDE VFR  
RETURNS ONCE FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A  
FEW/SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. AN ISO SHOWER/STORM  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW  
DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT, HIGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT MAY  
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H L M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H L M H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M L L M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M M H H L M M  
 
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...20/GW  
NEAR TERM...20/GW  
SHORT TERM...20  
LONG TERM...20  
AVIATION...GW  
 
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