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FXUS61 KRLX 011740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT FROM A PASSING DISTURBANCE. DRIER THIS WEEKEND, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, MAY STILL GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
OVERALL, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE TAKING HOLD, BUT WITH THAT
BEING SAID, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
GENERATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, OR EVEN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THRU FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA WIDE. HAVE ELECTED TO HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES TO BRIEFLY NUDGE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY. IT
WILL BE CONTINUED COOL UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
A DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW
LOOKS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MAINLY BE RAIN, HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN,
PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED AREAS, IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM LINGERING MOISTURE AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS EAST. POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS LINGERING MOISTURE COULD FALL IN
THE FORM OF A FZDZ INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
OVERALL, DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER TRIES TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SHOULD MISS
OUR CWA, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CANADA BY MID WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR AREA ON
INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT MOST
AREAS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR. EXPECT MANY SITES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBKW, TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z, WHEN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE HOLD ONCE AGAIN, AND LINGER
THROUGH/TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV, INCLUDING AT SITE KEKN,
WITH LOCAL IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 03Z THROUGH 15Z TIME FRAME.
IN ADDITION TO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, INCLUDING AT SITE KBKW, GENERALLY 01-12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MAY LAST
LONGER IN DURATION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L H H H M M H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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