911
FXUS61 KRLX 200628
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK AMID A COOLING TREND WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND PAST MID WEEK. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL MEANDER
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH AND FINALLY EXITING
BY MID DAY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY AND WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WHICH SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR COUNTRY WARNING AREA WHERE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST.
ANOTHER ASPECT IS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AMID THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TO
FLOOD PRONE OR LOW LYING AREAS IF HIT REPEATEDLY. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONCE
THE FEATURE EXITS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING AND
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL COME INTO THE REGION
AND PROMOTE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT TO BROADEN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA.
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE STARTING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PROMOTING COMFORTABLE WEATHER AMID
DRIER CONDITIONS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A VERY ACTIVE MORNING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. WITH CALMING FLOW AT THE SURFACE SOME
SITES MAY ENDURE FOG DEVELOPMENT SUCH AS CRW THROUGH THE
MORNING. ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE, SURFACE FLOW AND CONVECTION
SHOULD DEPRESS MUCH DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE
TIMES AT WHICH A SITE DECOUPLES AND FOG MAY FORM TEMPORARILY OR
STAY UNTIL 13/14Z. OR THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LOWER VIS AND IT MAY TAKE A SHORT WHILE BEFORE LIFTING
BACK TO VFR. THEREAFTER, ANY LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES AND VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS AND TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG WILL LIKELY VARY.TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 09/20/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L M H M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L M L L M H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M L M M H L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H M H L H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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