846  
FXUS61 KRLX 211735  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1235 PM EST THU FEB 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY BECOMING SUNNY, WITH  
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE  
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A  
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER  
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DRY PERIODS UNDER SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT  
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 50S. FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING  
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF  
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT SHOULD BRING BACK PRECIPITATION BY  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MAINLY  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES, AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG A  
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. BASED ON PREVIOUS  
RAINFALL/SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, ANOTHER FLOOD  
WATCH IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND WPC HAS  
GONE AHEAD AND PUT SOUTHERN ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL ALLOW  
THE DAY SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY NECESSARY FLOOD WATCHES CONCERNING  
THIS.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ON  
SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO MOVE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO  
LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF  
THE SOUTHERN U.S. TOWARDS THE REGION. AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM,  
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. SUSPECT ANOTHER  
AREA WIDE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND.  
 
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR  
EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER, AND MILD WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...  
 
DRIER WEATHER FINALLY EXPECTED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY  
MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS AND WEAK FLOW.  
 
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL THEN RESULT IN  
LOWERING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN THE  
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS WILL  
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND FAR SOUTHERN WV  
COUNTIES AROUND 06 UTC AND THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 08 UTC.  
 
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AND THE SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS MAY  
SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15 UTC.  
 
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS  
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BETWEEN 07 UTC & 15 UTC.  
 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION  
WILL MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04  
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
COUNTIES  
RIDGES OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL IN THE FORM OS AS E RI  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
PERIOD. THEN, TURNING MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT.  
 
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
WVZ005>007-013>015-024>027-033-034-515>520.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
OHZ083-086-087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/JZ  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...SL  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...JSH  
 
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