626
FXUS61 KRLX 181714
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVERHEAD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE TIME OF
WRITING CAPTURED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FORMATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
STRONG CAPPING ALOFT PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
PREVENT ANY FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CUMULUS
FIELDS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
UP ALOFT, RIDGING PARKED OVER THE THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY, SOLIDIFYING THE DRY FORECAST AND ALSO
YIELDING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
SKIRT AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES PLATEAU
IN THE 70S DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
THIS PREVAILING DRY SPELL HAS RESULTED IN WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PER THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR ASSESSMENT, 7% OF THE AREA (ENCOMPASSING PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES) NOW FALLS UNDER A D3 OR EXTREME DROUGHT
STATE, WITH D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE
KANAWHA VALLEY. IN COMPARISON TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR, ALMOST 80%
OF OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDED IN D3 CONDITIONS OR WORSE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND IN THE MIDST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDING
OVERHEAD. DURING THE RIDGE'S RESIDENCY, THE FORECAST REMAINS
MUCH OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY, ADVERTISING MOSTLY DRY AND HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AT THE SURFACE, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION BACK INTO PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ANTICIPATED QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
WILL UNLIKELY PUT A DENT IN OUR EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
WILL BE WELCOMING NONETHELESS.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PRESS EASTWARD BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TO
VENTURE BACK INTO THE REGION, BUT THIS WILL BE MORE THE CASE
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
REMAIN CONTAINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHILE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO STAY DRY AND HOT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONCLUDE ITS MULTI-DAY REIGN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN RESPONSE,
PASSING WAVES ALOFT WILL THEN YIELD OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH
LOCKING DOWN THE TIMING AND PROXIMITY OF SURFACE FEATURES FOR
MONDAY ONWARD, SO HAVE ACCEPTED CENTRAL GUIDANCE POPS FOR THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY
NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY NOT YET BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO RULE THE ROOST THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER THE GUISE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO SPROUT AT THE TIME OF WRITING ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME WILL
FEATURE RIVER VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN FOR A FEW BASINS, WHICH WILL
THEN OOZE INTO CRW, EKN, AND PKB BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIGHT WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH IS
ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK
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