909
FXUS61 KRLX 201931
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
231 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXITS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
STILL HAVE FLOOD HEADLINES IN AFFECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING IN. WINTER STORM WARNING HAS
BEEN DROPPED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR POCAHONTAS AND EASTERN
RANDOLPH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD AIR SCOURS OUT. LIKELY AN END TIME OF 0Z WILL STILL BE GOOD
FOR THE WARNING AS CAD IS IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WE HAVE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND AS THE WAVE/LOW EXITS TO THE NE, THE
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
SLIGHT POPS COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
IF PRECIP CAN REACH THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MID MORNING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD OCCUR. LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT, BUT THIS COULD MAKE ROADS
SLICK UNTIL SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THUS, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PULLS TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT QPF VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1-1.50"
RANGE. GIVEN WEDNESDAY'S HEAVY RAIN EVENT, MOST OF THE REGION WILL
STILL BE TRYING TO RECOVER AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD BRING
FURTHER HYDRO CONCERNS TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. WHILE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE
PRESENT, CAPE VALUES WILL BE LOW, WITH AROUND 200 J/KG POSSIBLE IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER JUST
OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS IF THE AIR
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVF TO IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS WITH FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET AGL. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE RAIN
MAY VARY. CEILINGS HEIGHTS COULD VARY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AS
WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H L H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H M H H H H M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ523-
524-526.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>033-039-040.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/SL
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...RG
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MPK
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