127
FXUS61 KRLX 142300
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
600 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR INCREASE IN SNOWFALL FORECAST ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH UP TO 1-2" POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS (GENERALLY ABOVE 4,000 FEET).
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS (0.50-1.00 INCH) FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX OF
SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS LIKELY EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
3.) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
FURTHER AWAY, WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY
CENTERED IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE CROSSES. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF RAIN, WITH LIKELY
RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE OF THE STEADIER LIGHT TO
MODERATE VARIETY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF BRIEFLY
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA LATE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM
APPROXIMATELY 0.25-1.00", WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN TOTALS THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO, HEAVIEST BEING ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
(GENERALLY 3,500 FEET AND ABOVE) ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A MIXTURE
OF SNOW AND RAIN, WITH UP TO 1-2" POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
RIDGES. PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY TAPER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY EVENING, GIVING WAY TO A DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT. DID CODE FOG INTO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS GIVEN SNOW/RAIN MIX ATOP
LINGERING SNOWPACK.
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE LOWLANDS HAS LARGELY MELTED OFF THIS WEEK,
WITH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO BEING THE EXCEPTION, BUT EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE MINOR RAIN AMOUNTS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WHILE SNOWPACK THERE WILL MELT A BIT TODAY, LARGELY
THINK THAT THE CHANCE OF IT MELTING OUT COMPLETELY THROUGH
SUNDAY IS LOW, WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR IT TO REMAIN TO AN
EXTENT AND ABSORB WHAT RAIN DOES FALL TOMORROW FOR THE MOST
PART, AND THUS LEAD TO A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ICE JAMS AND
FLOODING, BUT NOT ZERO. FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
IS EXPECTED (SOUTHWEST VA AND SOUTHERN WV), THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE SNOWPACK HAS MELTED ALREADY, WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ISSUES
IN LOW-LYING OR TYPICAL TROUBLE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM, RIDGING ALOFT AND
RETURN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STEADY WARMING TREND
THROUGHOUT THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL TRANSITION
TO 60S AREA-WIDE BY WEDNESDAY, WITH EVEN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS PUSHING 50. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY MELT OF THE
REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT GIVEN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS / FLOODING SHOULD
REMAIN LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RELATIVELY BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SCT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS.
FOLLOWING THIS, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH WEAK WAVES POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND A MORE AMPLIFIED
DISTURBANCE REMAINS LOW AT PRESENT GIVEN THE SPREAD OF CURRENT
GUIDANCE. COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS CLOUD COVER
CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR SHOULD TAKE HOLD FOR THE MORNING, THEN
FURTHER DEGRADATION OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW STRATUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WINDS THAT BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
RAIN, LOW STRATUS, AND PERHAPS FOG SHOULD SUPPORT IFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...20
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