295
FXUS61 KRLX 112355
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
ELECTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF KY, WV, AND VA
INTO LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW DEPARTURE OF
THE COLD FRONT. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS DIMINISH AFTER TONIGHT, SO THE WATCH REMAINS ON
SCHEDULE TO EXPIRE SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS SPILL INTO SUNDAY AMID A SLOW
DEPARTURE OF A COLD FRONT. SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXACERBATE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
2) TURNING DRY AND WARMER FOR THE NEW WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO
AN UNSETTLED STATE AFTER THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS HAVE RAMPED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
UNDER THE GUISE OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ALONG A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PLACES THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WITHIN A HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
SLOWLY PROPAGATING CELLS CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS EQUIVALENT
TO 1-3"/HR WILL PROVOKE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND LEAD TO
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENCE OF
THESE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AS
WELL AS OUR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS TODAY, LEADING TO SEVERAL
REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS. CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT WILL FAIL TO MAKE A FULL EXODUS FROM
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL APPEAR
ONCE MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR SOIL RECOVERY ACROSS THE
COALFIELDS, OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALLOWING THE CURRENT WATCH TO EXPIRE
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
BEGINNING ON MONDAY, DRIER WEATHER TAKES HOLD AMID UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING CENTER STAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL YIELD A WARMING
TREND, RETURNING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COUPLED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES NOSE UP
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL LIES IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD, WHERE PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, CIGS AND VIS WILL DETERIORATE DUE TO PREVIOUSLY
FALLEN RAIN AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY CREATE FOG FORMATION AT VIRTUALLY EVERY SITE, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF HOW MUCH THEY WILL GET. THIS IS DUE
TO LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FORMATION OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRATUS WHICH IS EXPECTED AT EVERY SITE. VIS
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY VARY AND OSCILLATE UP AND DOWN THROUGH
MORNING. HAVE GONE CONSERVATIVE ON VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CLOUD
COVERAGE, HOWEVER SOME INSTANCES CAN GET DOWN TO LIFR OR WORSE
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT BKW WHERE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT CONDITONS SHOULD BE
TEMPORARY. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF BORDERLINE MVFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO WHERE VFR MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE EVEN IN THAT DUE TO
THE QUASI-STATIONARY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO SAG
SOUTH BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIMING OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING WILL LIKELY VARY. CIGS MAY LIFT MORE
SLOWLY THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H M H L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H L H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005-006-013>015-
024>026-033-034-515>518.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ007>011-016>020-
027>032-039-040-519>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OHZ087.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>086.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page