369
FXUS61 KRLX 161047
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
647 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA, WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONT TREKS THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS MORNING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL -- IN THE MID 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH 40S IN THE
LOWLANDS, AND THE MOUNTAINS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AT PRESENT, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING DRY
AND COOL WEATHER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 30S IN
THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL PREVENT MOST OF THE
REGION FROM SEEING FROST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WHERE WINDS HAVE A CHANCE OF
DECOUPLING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH FOR FROST TO
BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE VALLEYS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WEST VIRGINIA, DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY. DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
A COLD FRONT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MODELS VARY WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA, WHICH BRINGS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE FRONT AND EVEN BIGGER DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...
RAIN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THROUGH. THE LINE OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
PASSED EAST OF CRW AND IS MOVING TOWARD CKB/EKN/BKW. LIGHTER
SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE,
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER THE FRONT EXITS THE
AREA. IN SOME LOCATIONS, CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AS SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
(MVFR/IFR) ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY, BEFORE WINDS LESSEN TO AROUND 5-10KTS.
WESTERLY 5-10KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M H H H L M H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H M H H M L H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L H M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JLB
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