461  
FXUS61 KRLX 171852  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
252 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUE TODAY WITH ANOTHER  
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT INCREASES THE  
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY POINTS:  
* FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
* ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON  
OR EVENING.  
 
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED  
THROUGHOUT THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT FORTUNATELY  
THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN RECENT DAYS, SO NO HYDRO  
ISSUES AS OF YET. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO  
BLOSSOM AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, SO  
INCREASED COVERAGE COULD LEAD TO A GREATER RISK OF TRAINING  
STORMS, AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL IS LIKELY, AS WELL. IT'S HARD  
RIGHT NOW TO PINPOINT ANY ONE AREA FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL, AS  
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE FOCUSED IN ANY ONE AREA, AND IT LIKELY WILL  
BE CONDITIONAL ON IF SOME AREAS CAN GET TRAINING OR HIT MULTIPLE  
TIMES. ADDITIONALLY, WPC AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DID BUMP DOWN  
THE QPF SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA, SO IT'S POSSIBLE WE MAY LARGELY  
MISS OUT ON FLOODING THIS TIME AROUND.  
 
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR  
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, WHERE ISOLATED STORMS  
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE MAINLY  
BE A CONCERN IF STORMS CAN GET ENOUGH VERTICAL GROWTH, OR IF WE  
CAN GET SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS TO OCCUR. OTHERWISE, SHEAR IS  
PALTRY, SO IT WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
ORGANIZATION OR SUSTAINED ACTIVITY.  
 
BEYOND THE FLOODING CONCERNS, IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID  
THROUGH TOMORROW. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL  
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY MILD TONIGHT, AND SW'LY WINDS AND SOME  
PATCHY SUNSHINE TOMORROW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID-80S FOR  
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO THE 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. HEAT  
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 1205 PM TUESDAY...  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE,  
CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO  
THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH, WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST,  
FINALLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE  
DURING THIS PERIOD, AND SPC ALREADY HAS PARTS OF THE AREA  
HIGHLIGHTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A DAMAGING WIND  
THREAT LOOKING TO BE MOST LIKELY. MODELS TEND TO DIFFER A BIT WITH  
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND A SLOWER TIMING TO THE  
FRONT/MORE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A GREATER  
THREAT FOR SEVERE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN IS CURRENTLY  
HIGHLIGHTED. FOR NOW, SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK,  
WITH THE SLIGHT RISK LOCATED TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, WITH A MARGINAL  
RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM ANY LINGERING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO  
OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR  
AREA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.  
 
OVERALL DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND  
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE  
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 1205 PM TUESDAY...  
 
MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE LOWLANDS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, WILL  
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES LIKELY HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE  
AFTERNOONS DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SCT025 DECK THAT OCCASIONALLY GOES  
BKN FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INITIALLY AS SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SLOWLY RAMPS UP AROUND THE CWA. ANY BROKEN  
OR OVERCAST SKIES DURING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT A  
SITE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 020-030 AGL RANGE, BUT COULD SEE  
SOME AREAS A BIT LOWER OR HIGHER. VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS  
AND STORMS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IFR THRESHOLD, BUT MOST PRECIP  
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY AS  
MUCH.  
 
SW'LY WINDS ARE GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, GUSTING UP TO  
15KTS OR SO AT TIMES, BUT OUTSIDE OF ANY T-STORM GUSTS, THAT  
SHOULD CALM DOWN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE  
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF MIST AND  
PERHAPS A BIT DENSER MIST OR FOG IN SOME VALLEYS TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND  
RESULTANT IMPACTS ON CIGS/VSBY MAY VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M L H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M M M H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H L  
EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H M M  
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M H H H H M  
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H M M H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND  
EVENINGS COULD YIELD PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS WEDNESDAY AND  
FRIDAY MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-  
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-  
076-083>087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL  
NEAR TERM...FK  
SHORT TERM...SL  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...FK  
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