524
FXUS61 KRLX 281008
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
508 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TAPERING OFF TODAY. A SYSTEM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD START AS A WINTRY MIX. A SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WAS BRINGING MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT WITH MOISTURE BE RATHER THIN IN THE
SOUNDINGS, JUST EXPECTING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A WINTRY
MIX COULD OCCUR WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BEFORE BECOMING
RAIN. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, THINK THAT ANY IMPACTS IN THE
WESTERN LOWLANDS WOULD BE VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER, THE EASTERN
SLOPES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAP ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CAUSE
FREEZING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SITUATION DEFINITELY NEEDS MONITORING. SOME MINOR UPSLOPE SNOW
IS A POSSIBILITY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW FROM THIS SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SEVERAL MODELS ALSO TAKE THE 850 LOW SOUTH OR OVER
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE GFS TAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. IF THE
850 LOW WERE TO TRACK SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THEN THAT SCENARIO
WOULD FAVOR SNOW FOR MUCH OR OUR REGION. IF THE 850 LOW TRACK
NORTH OF OUR AREA, THIS WOULD FAVOR A WARM WEDGE ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES. THIS IS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT DEFINITELY BEARS
MONITORING.
MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DISAGREE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
LEAVING A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 505 AM FRIDAY...
A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WAS BRINGING MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT WITH MOISTURE BE RATHER THIN,
MAINLY EXPECTING VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE AREA, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD CREATE
BRIEFLY LOWER RESTRICTIONS THAN FORECAST IN THE WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 11/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M L M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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