327
FXUS61 KRLX 231933
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALTHOUGH STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, THIS THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITHIN THIS SLOW MOVING LINE COULD ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WAFFLING FRONT IN / NEAR THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL WAVES
WILL KEEP CLOUDS, SHOWERS, AND THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, AROUND THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL 11
PM TONIGHT.
- 2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE
START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH DRYING POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
- 3) TEMPERATURES HOVER ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND UPCOMING SHORT WORK WEEK, BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT ROUND OF MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVES AMID ONGOING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, AND A PSUEDO COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HEADING NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINES OF
CONVECTION IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LINE OF SHOWERS RIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MARCHED ACROSS
OHIO THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE ANOTHER FORMING FARTHER SOUTHEAST WAS SLITHERING UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER.
AFTERNOON HEATING AHEAD OF THESE LINES TOOK TEMPERATURES UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS, HIGHER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. THIS,
ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, HAS GENERATED
CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, WITH A SLIVER OF AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO. WHILE NOT ENOUGH THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER
FOR LARGE HAIL, MODEST 0-6/8 KM BULK SHEAR AOA 30 KTS AND
ESPECIALLY 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-125 M**2/S**2 AND PERHAPS 150
M**2/S**2 COUPLED WITH LOW LCL SUPPORT THE ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
IN ADDITION, AREA OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS EVINCED A MOIST
ADIABATIC COLUMN SATURATED VIRTUALLY ALL THE WAY UP, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE, ALONG
WITH MEAN LAYER STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. WITH
THE MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVE LIFTING OUT, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
NOT MOVING MUCH AS A RESULT, THE LINES OF CONVECTION DRAG, OR
MOVE SLOWLY, RESULTING IN CELL MOVEMENT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
LINE ITSELF, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GENERALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL, WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTING NARROW STRIPS OF OVER TWO
INCHES.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE MARGINAL RISK TO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED, FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
WITH ANTECEDENT MOIST CONDITIONS, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL 11
PM TONIGHT, WHEN THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA
AND DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY.
YET ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW, WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND A
MORE DIFFUSE ARRAY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THIS IS LIKELY TO
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, MORE COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING THAN SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, AND SLOWER
MOVING.
AMID THE LIGHTER FLOW, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ONLY A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT OUTLOOK,
BUT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN NUMEROUS, SLOWER MOVING HEAVY CELLS AMID
CONTINUED RICH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND THIS MAY WARRANT ADDITIONAL
FLOOD WATCH CONSIDERATIONS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS EVENING.
THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FLAT WAVES PUSH THE EAST-COAST RIDGE
OFFSHORE AND TURN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST,
BUT WITH THE CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH EVEN ANOTHER SERIES
OF FLAT WAVES COMING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
MONDAY, AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH IT MONDAY NIGHT, AND
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER DIURNAL TIMING
OF THE FLAT WAVES AGAIN, CONTINUES. ALL THE RAINFALL WILL NEED
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER LIMITS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AMID SLOW MOVING HEAVY CELLS THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR THE MID AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
SHIFTS NORTH, AND A SERIES OF FLAT WAVES EMANATING OUT OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH GIVES RISE TO SHOWERS AND
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HYDRO CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LINGERING ISSUE.
FINALLY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN EAST-
COAST LONG-WAVE TROUGH AS LONG-WAVE RIDGING BUILDS AT ALL
LEVELS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
ACTS TO SHUNT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTH, IF
NOT LEAVE IT BEHIND TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND DRIVE THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND HENCE THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD AND, BY NEXT
WEEKEND, EVEN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. AS SUCH,
NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE BETTER PICK FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES HOVER ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING SHORT WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON LOWS, WITH
HIGHS SOMEWHAT MUFFLED AMID THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND AT LEAST BACK DOWN TO NORMAL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE LOW STRATOCUMULUS REMAINS NEARBY
BKW, LIKELY FILLING BACK IN TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR FOG MAY IMPACT
EKN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND ANY SITE THAT GETS RAIN THIS
EVENING, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVES AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES
BRING ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY SUNDAY, WITH TSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLY FIRING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW, GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AND/OR VSBY MAY OSCILLATE FROM THE
FORECAST DEPENDING ON RAINFALL. FOG OVERNIGHT COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY, CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT SITES BY 18Z.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M M L H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-017-
019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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