909  
FXUS61 KRLX 201931  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
231 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXITS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO  
EAST. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES  
FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
STILL HAVE FLOOD HEADLINES IN AFFECT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PUSHING IN. WINTER STORM WARNING HAS  
BEEN DROPPED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR POCAHONTAS AND EASTERN  
RANDOLPH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S  
AND FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL THE  
COLD AIR SCOURS OUT. LIKELY AN END TIME OF 0Z WILL STILL BE GOOD  
FOR THE WARNING AS CAD IS IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
CURRENTLY HAVE A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS  
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. WE HAVE ONE MORE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN  
FROM THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK  
SURFACE LOW RIDING UP THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE  
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND AS THE WAVE/LOW EXITS TO THE NE, THE  
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END FROM  
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY  
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE  
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  
ATLANTIC. AS THIS ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING,  
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT  
SLIGHT POPS COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND  
IF PRECIP CAN REACH THIS FAR NORTH BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE  
FREEZING BY MID MORNING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD OCCUR. LITTLE TO NO ICE  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT, BUT THIS COULD MAKE ROADS  
SLICK UNTIL SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING.  
 
THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THUS, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PULLS TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF THIS  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW  
COULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE TRANSITIONING  
TO RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS  
SYSTEM WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT QPF VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1-1.50"  
RANGE. GIVEN WEDNESDAY'S HEAVY RAIN EVENT, MOST OF THE REGION WILL  
STILL BE TRYING TO RECOVER AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD BRING  
FURTHER HYDRO CONCERNS TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, MODELS ARE  
INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER  
TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. WHILE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE  
PRESENT, CAPE VALUES WILL BE LOW, WITH AROUND 200 J/KG POSSIBLE IN  
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF THUNDER JUST  
OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK OF ELEVATED  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHEAST OH.  
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE MODELS IF THE AIR  
WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE OVER ON MONDAY.  
 
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OR  
WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS DISAGREE CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1250 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. MVF TO IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER  
RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR CONDITIONS WITH FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2000  
FEET AGL. STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION DURING  
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BRING AN END TO THE  
RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE  
NIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE RAIN  
MAY VARY. CEILINGS HEIGHTS COULD VARY UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AS  
WELL.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00  
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M H L H H H M M  
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H M  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H M H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H L H H H H M H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H M H H H H M  
 
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ523-  
524-526.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-  
024>033-039-040.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-  
083>087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MPK/SL  
NEAR TERM...MPK  
SHORT TERM...RG  
LONG TERM...RPY  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
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