946
FXUS61 KRLX 110919
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISAIAS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN.
2.) BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A SERIES
OF FRONTS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, AND
COOLER WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE PUMPED INTO
THE REGION ON STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
PUSH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER
TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
WITH A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO LINGER,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY.
IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY DUE TO NUMEROUS TREE DOWN REPORTS RECEIVED WITH
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS/WET GROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINY WEATHER, BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE AREA MID WEEK, PROVIDING FOR
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM
LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH
OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH COLDER WEATHER TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF MOISTURE, BUT AT THIS
POINT, ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE, GENERALLY 15Z TO 20Z SUNDAY.
AFTER 21-00Z, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR, WITH AREAS OF LIFR AND
LOCALIZED VLIFR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES, IN
LOW CEILINGS AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHRA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 22Z WHEN THEY
WILL SLACKEN, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
IN ADDITION, LLWS WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT/THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AND THIS HAS BEEN CODED INTO
THE TAF'S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M L L M H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L M L M L L L M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L M M L M H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ033-034-
515>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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