175
FXUS61 KRLX 260133
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
933 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA,
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG GIVEN
LESS CLOUD COVER. UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SOME FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF 500-MB VORTICITY
RIDES ALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A TRAIN OF 500-MB VORTICITY RIDES THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A 250-MB JET
STREAK WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, PROMOTING UPWARD MOTION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH
MODELS PREDICTING ANYWHERE FROM 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE IT IS A BIT EARLY TO DIAGNOSE SPECIFIC THREATS AND LOCATIONS,
WE WILL NEED TO REMAIN ON GUARD FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT WERE RECENTLY IMPACTED BY FLOODING FROM THIS PAST WEEK'S
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND
MIGRATING WESTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LOCATED
OVER THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ROUNDS OF 500-MB
VORTICITY WILL PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN
TIMEFRAME OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WHICH WAS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
OTHERWISE, MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THAT TIMEFRAME
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AT PRESENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE
OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
VALLEY FOG AND SOME STRATUS. FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO AN EXTENT WEST/SOUTH BY SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
WITH RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY AT CRW/EKN/PKB. VFR WILL RETURN TO
MOST LOCATIONS BY ~ 13Z, THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.
CALM FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO VERY LIGHT WNW/NW FLOW
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT, HIGH ON SUNDAY.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M L L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG MONDAY MORNING,
AND ALSO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/26
AVIATION...GW
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