928
FXUS61 KRLX 040639
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND DRIER THIS WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND LAUNCHES A
PERIOD OF DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER THAT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, WHEN
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, THOUGH
MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AS A RESULT OF
LOW CEILINGS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER AT BKW MUCH OF
THE DAY WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA RETURNS TO VFR. CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER 00Z.
WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE CALM TO LIGHT,
STRONGER FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD PROMPT A FEW GUSTS INTO
THE TEENS AT BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H M M M M L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H L H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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