554
FXUS61 KRLX 012358
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
ADDED ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION ON SUNDAY SEVERE/FLOOD POTENTIAL.
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AS OF 1053 AM SATURDAY...
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN AND STORM POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING
LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPSTREAM RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD, PUSHING
AN ARCING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND OHIO TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SOME TRANSIENT
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LINE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND THE METRO VALLEY
THIS EVENING, THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY. MLCAPE VALUES, WHICH PEAKED
NEAR 1000J/KG EARLIER TODAY, ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 200J/KG
OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE DIMINISHING THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY, ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS UNSEASONABLY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
STEERING WINDS THROUGH H500 FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO
25KTS REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS ALIGNMENT WILL SUPPORT LIMITED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS
OFF LATE TONIGHT, MAINTAINING A LOCALIZED RISK FOR MINOR HIGH
WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES. DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MLCAPE TO
REBUILD TO 800 TO 1200J/KG BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW-LEVEL JET
AT H850 WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 35KTS WILL SHIFT NEAR OR JUST EAST
OF THE EASTERN BORDER DURING PEAK HEATING. THREAT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS LOW AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE
EASTERN BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6.5C/KM WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
ESPECIALLY IN ANY BREAKS TO FULL SUNSHINE.
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 11K FEET WILL
FAVOR EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN THE MOISTURE-RICH
AIRMASS. STEERING FLOW ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL FAVOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR TRAINING HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING IS ORIENTED ALONG THE I-79 AND US-119 CORRIDORS
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHERE STEEP TERRAIN AND
NARROW HOLLOWS WILL RAPIDLY DIRECT RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY ULTIMATELY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE EASTERN
AREAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING ON MODEL
TRENDS.
AS OF 1053 AM SATURDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, MOVING EASTWARD. SHOWERS ARE SEEN TRACKING
EASTWARD AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY, AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST OHIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO KENTUCKY SUNDAY,
AREAWIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IF ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE DAY
WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
800-1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IF
TRAINING CELLS IMPACT THE SAME AREAS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING COULD OCCUR. THE WPC CURRENTLY HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SAME LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MAY DEVELOP EITHER MONDAY OR
TUESDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY OR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK
HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.
DIRECT HITS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR OR IFR ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH.
CEILINGS TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH GENERALLY 2000-3500 FT CEILINGS EXCEPT AT EKN
WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
GUSTS AT BKW. SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE IF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MANAGE TO FULLY DECOUPLE. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
ADVERTISED WITH DIRECT HITS OF ANY HEAVIER CORES TO TERMINALS.
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COMPLETELY DECOUPLES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/26
AVIATION...JP
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