347
FXUS61 KRLX 230525
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS, SCORCHING
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 124 AM WEDNESDAY...
COOLER AND TRANQUIL THIS MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, MINUS
SOME VALLEY FOG FORMATION. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S WITH SOME
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR WESTERN MOST OHIO
COUNTIES (I.E. ATHENS, PERRY, MORGAN, AND VINTON).
AFTER FOG CLEARS THIS MORNING, OUR WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY, BUT A
SCORCHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REFRAIN FROM HITTING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S
IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT HEAT INDEX VALUES,
POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, AND SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW RAMPING
DOWN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLINK OFF TO THE EAST A BIT TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
A BIT WARMER THAN WE WILL OBSERVE THIS MORNING WITH THE LOWLANDS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE MOUNTAINS
MEANWHILE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...
OUR STRING OF DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. THE S-SW'LY WINDS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO FEED GRADUALLY
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THE NBM'S DEW POINT FORECAST
MAY BE SHOWING A BIT OF A HIGH BIAS FOR THURSDAY, AS THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT THERE MAY BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST BE. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE MID-90S IN SPOTS, EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS
POTENTIALLY A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER, WE LIKELY SEE A SWATH OF
THE AREA REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE INCREASING DEW
POINTS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WITH
LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE LOWLANDS BOTH
NIGHTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THAT SEEMS A LOW-END
POSSIBILITY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES, THEN STALLS AND FLUCTUATES OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO
LIMITED SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT TO LIMIT STORM TOP GROWTH. GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS
CLOSER. SHEAR MAY BE A BIT BETTER ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL ON THE
WEAK SIDE, BUT A 500MB WAVE CROSSING ON SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT AND THE LACK OF A STRONG SIGNAL, SPC
HAS NOT HIGHLIGHTED SUNDAY IN THEIR LONG-RANGE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY, ONCE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, IT
ARRIVES IN FORCE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE
WEEKEND EXPECTED IN THE 1.75-2.25" RANGE, MEANING ANY STRONG
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAPABLE
OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. FRIDAY'S FLOODING POTENTIAL LOOKS
LOWER, MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED STORM COVERAGE, SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, AND HAVING A FEW DRY DAYS AHEAD OF
IT. WPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY,
AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT MAY BE THE CASE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY ONCE
THAT BECOMES THE DAY 5 FORECAST.
SO LONG AS WE REMAIN IN THE SULTRY AIRMASS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT, WE'LL STAY HOT AND HUMID DURING THE
DAY, AND UNCOMFORTABLY MUGGY AT NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REACH OR EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT LEAST ON FRIDAY,
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL VALLEY FOG FORMS THIS
MORNING STARTING AT OR AFTER ~06Z. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY FOG, ESPECIALLY AT CRW AND EKN. FOG WILL LIFT
BETWEEN ~11-13Z DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN. VFR
UNDER FEW TO SCATTERED CU WILL THEN RESUME AFTER FOG DISSIPATES
AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE CALM THIS MORNING, EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES WHERE LIGHT SE'RLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SE'RLY AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AFTER ~15-16Z MIXING
STARTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT, TIMING, AND DENSITY OF FOG THIS
MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/23/25
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
013>017-025-026.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ075-
083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101-103.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC
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