986
FXUS61 KRLX 291847
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFINED POPS INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2.) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT THUS FAR, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
QUITE MUTED GIVEN SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER GREATLY
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN DECENT KINEMATIC
FIELDS AND LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING, THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. THE MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY BECOMES MORE SO OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA BY DAWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF PROLONGED GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES AMID THE BROADER UPPER
AIR PATTERN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%), BUT IN GENERAL, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, POSSIBLY FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. AT THE CURRENT TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. MVFR/IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
STORMS. VFR/MVFR CIGS AT PRESENT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. RAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MUCH MORE OF THE ISOLD VARIETY AFTER 00Z,
ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR VSBY WITHIN SHOWERS CANNOT ENTIRELY BE
RULED OUT. WHILE VFR CIGS MAY RETURN ACROSS THE FAR WEST, MAINLY
MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR TONIGHT.
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST
AFTER IT PASSES, AND COULD BE BREEZY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD VARY. PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT. CIG RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M M H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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