521  
FXUS61 KRLX 041941  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
241 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT. A BROAD CANADIAN LOW WILL LIKELY DIRECT  
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, PROVIDING A MORE  
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEAR CALM FLOW. WITH COLD AIR IN  
PLACE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  
 
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE  
LATER TONIGHT. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME WAA TO BRING AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...  
 
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS A FRONT  
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL  
RECEIVE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT, A WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING RAIN COULD BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A  
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE COULD ACCRUE BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN  
OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO  
FOREGO ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN  
PROJECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS  
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
WEEK AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S FOR THE  
LOWLANDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.  
MEANWHILE, LOWS START OUT IN THE 30S TO 40S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN  
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THERE  
CONTINUE TO BE VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING  
AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. OVERALL, MODELS  
SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT  
THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY OR  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE END OF  
THE WORK WEEK. RAIN DIMINISHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AS THE FRONT  
DEPARTS AND THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE; HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE  
SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO PERSIST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS  
ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE  
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1242 PM SUNDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, PROVIDING  
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM  
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING  
ON TUESDAY.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07  
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB  
NEAR TERM...ARJ  
SHORT TERM...JLB  
LONG TERM...JLB  
AVIATION...ARJ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page