863
FXUS61 KRLX 181845
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND MILD TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS, THEN ENDING IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
A MILD AND WARMER DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 40S AND MID 50S. MOIST AIR WILL
INVADE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, REPLACING THE DRIER AIR
WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG JET
MOVES OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A HEFTY LINE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF IT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE ARRIVING IN THE HUNTINGTON/TRI-
STATE AREA BETWEEN 9PM-11PM, THEN THE CHARLESTON/METRO AREA
BETWEEN 10PM-MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE MOUNTAINS AND POINTS EAST
AN HOUR OR SO AFTER.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE MAIN LINE, SLACKING OFF ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS SOME. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN
ELSEWHERE TOMORROW MORNING, JUST AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL THEN OCCUR
AS A RESULT OF THE FLASH FREEZE AND NON-DIRUNAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (3,500 FEET AND ABOVE) OF THE RANDOLPH, POCAHONTAS,
AND WEBSTER WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE LOWLANDS WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO SEE AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER, THE FLASH
FREEZE WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON FOR MOST, WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND
50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES WHERE THE
HIGHER END OF THE RANGE COULD BE SEEN. POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED
TREES ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR
REDUCING VISIBILITY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM THURSDAY...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WRAPPING UP FRIDAY NIGHT, AS
WILL GUSTY WINDS. A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH 20S AND TEENS EXPECTED, BUT SATURDAY WILL BE MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH NUDGES IN TO BRING US SOME DRIER WEATHER
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BUT THESE FRONTS LOOK TO BE MOISTURE DEPRIVED, SO ALLOWED FOR
POPS BELOW 10%. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK
10-15 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY THOUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...
THE HOLIDAY WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY TO START WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. A FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW FOR SOME. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE AND ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE, A DECENT WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE BY
MIDWEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REFLECTED BY GUIDANCE
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY COULD BE A
DECENT DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES WITH 60S POSSIBLE FOR A
CHUNK OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASINGLY CLOUD
SKIES. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
S'RLY FLOW INCREASES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LLWS HAS BEEN ADDED AT MOST SITES AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVER LATER TODAY.
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS START MOVING IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE FROPA. A SHIFT
FROM SW TO WNW WILL OCCUR AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THIS FRONT
RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING, SO SNOW WILL
MOSTLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AT BKW, CKB, AND EKN. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CEASE BY ~00Z SATURDAY. VFR RETURNS TO MOST SITES OUTSIDE
OF CKB AND EKN AFTER ~18Z FRIDAY.
GUSTY WNW WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS BEING COMMON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN, LOWER CEILINGS, AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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