096
FXUS61 KRLX 152336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
142 PM UPDATE...
~18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
1215 PM UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL OF OUR
NORTHEASTERN KY COUNTIES AND A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS AND MOUNTAINS OF WV.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COURTESY
OF A STATIONARY FRONT. A SUBTLE BREAK IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCKED
IN PLACE AS ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THE MAIN THREAT
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. WATERLOGGED SOILS,
HIGH PW VALUES, AND ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
1-2" OF RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 2
INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE STORMS TRAIN,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN OH AND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WV. THESE ARE THE AREAS WHERE CHANCES FOR MORE CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN WV
HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED WITH A RARE MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND SUNDAY. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) HAS
BEEN STAMPED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS
SUBSEQUENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY. SOME COUNTIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND NORTHEASTERN KY WERE ADDED GIVEN A MORE
SOUTHWARD TREND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MODELS.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE COMPLEXES OF STORMS TRAVERSING
IN/OH. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY REACH US AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MORE ROBUST ROUND IS EXPECTED SOMETIME
TONIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL OF
COURSE BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY, BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HOW THIS EVOLVES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVES TODAY. IT IS CURRENTLY REMAINING
PARKED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. HOWEVER, A MESO-LOW
ANCHORED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO TO OCCUR IN MORE
ORGANIZED, CLEAR-AIR CELLS. THIS RISK IS MORE OF CONCERN FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OH, NORTHEAST KY, AND FAR WESTERN WV.
THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN MODELS AS TO HOW THIS EVENT
WILL EVOLVE. THE ~12Z HRRR SHOWS THE FIRST MCS DROPPING INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES AND CONTINUING ESE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WV BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM TONIGHT. THIS SOLUTION SHOWS
A QUICK MOVING, PROGRESSIVE BOWING SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ITS WAKE. THE ~12Z NAM SHOWS A
LATER ARRIVAL (AFTER MIDNIGHT) AND A LESS PROGRESSIVE, INTENSE
LINE OF STORMS. IT DOES SHOW MORE COVERAGE AND ROUNDS OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MAIN LINE
THAT WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS, TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN
FOR FLASH FLOODING.
DEPENDING ON CLEARING AND EXIT OF MORNING ACTIVITY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE STEADFAST SULTRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MORE OF THE
SAME IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY
THROUGH SOME OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS GREATLY DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALLOWED SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWER/STORMS WITH THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR UNTIL CONVECTION ARISES IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BRING DOWN FLIGHT CATEGORIES SOME. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOG EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND
PATCHY AT BKW OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BRING
VIS DOWN TO MVFR OR WORSE IF A SITE IS HIT DIRECTLY. SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD PICK UP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NEGATE MOST FOG AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE. MVFR CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE ALONG WITH SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
MORNING AND THEN LIFT TO VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND OR UNDER
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...JZ
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