115
FXUS61 KRLX 241750
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
346 AM UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE. MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTIES HAS BEEN
PULLED AWAY WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSSES SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
- 2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRIER WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE FROM WEST AROUND SUNDOWN AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. OUR OHIO COUNTIES WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THIS
ACTIVITY AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING A COUPLE STORMS MAY BE
STRONGER SIDE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER DARK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BY THIS TIME,
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE STRENGTH WILL BE GONE SO MOST STORMS WILL
RELY SOLELY ON FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT, THUS LIMITING STORM
SEVERITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW QUITE A BIT AND MAY EVEN
STALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TRAINING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GAINS STEAM AND MOVES
EASTWARD. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL FALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO PICK UP BETWEEN 0.10" AND 0.30".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS, SOME MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE, WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. TIMING IS STILL BEING IRONED OUT, BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM TOO.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE AREA REMAINS IN A WARM BUT NOT HUMID AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD ATOP A DEEP MIXED
LAYER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO RIVER,
POSSIBLY IMPACTING HTS AND PKB 02-06Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR
NOW, HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB AT THOSE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE WIDE DEW POINT SPREADS/DEEP
MIXED LAYER MAY INVITE STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO MVFR FROM STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK /11Z/ WEST TO AROUND NOON
/15-17Z/ EAST. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MOST
LIKELY ON CEILINGS.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW LOWLANDS AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST
INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE, WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LIGHT WEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MORE PREVALENT
THAN FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST
EARLIER THIS EVENING AND BE MORE IMPACTFUL THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS,
MAINLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER /HTS-PKB/. TIMING AND DEGREE OF
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IN LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...TRM
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