357
FXUS61 KRLX 110012
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
812 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM. RH WILL NOT BE
AS LOW TODAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
- 2) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD, WITH WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES
POSSIBLY NEEDED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AMID
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (~ 20
DEGREES) COURTESY OF CONTINUED RETURN FLOW. THIS RESULTS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLD SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING AMID BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OVERALL, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS 20 PERCENT OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
BE A DEVELOPING / STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS BRINGS A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VIA FORCING FROM A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA. WHILE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE TO BEGIN, MODEST DEVELOPING
BUOYANCY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SURFACE BASED CONVECTION, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND DISCRETE IN NATURE, WITH
THE THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING
THIS, AN OVERALL LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AND IS WHAT WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
EVENING. VERY STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS LEAD TO THIS SECOND ROUND
HAVING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH A SPIN UP OR
TWO ALONG THE LINE REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
QUICKLY TAPERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CROSSES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER RAINS
MOVE OVER LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY. WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK,
PUSHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS. IN
ADDITION, IT WILL BE BREEZY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CLEAR. DIURNAL MIXING COULD
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA, PERHAPS UP
TO 40 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH TO AN INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH AND WET ANTECEDENT
GROUND FROM RAIN, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AND MAINLY
ABOVE 3500 FEET. DRIER WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AMID MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER A VFR NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT CLOUD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY, WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY CENTRAL/NORTH (CKB/HTS/PKB).
THE SECOND, AND MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, 00Z THURSDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BRING STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, POSSIBLY LARGE. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE A
TORNADO. HOWEVER, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL NEAR 00Z THURSDAY, SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT SEVERE CODING IN THE TAFS
PRIOR TO 00Z THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY EVEN MORE SO
COMPARED WITH TODAY, 20 TO 30 KTS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND THIS CODE WAS MAINTAINED IN THE TAFS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS,
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE SEVERE WEATHER REACHES THE OHIO
RIVER BY 00Z THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET (R) OR TIED (T) FOR THIS DATE
TODAY, AND A FEW MORE MAY BE SET OR TIED ON WEDNESDAY.
OBS-FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------
TUE, 3/10 | WED, 3/11 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 82 / 83 (1990) |
HTS | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 83 / 83 (1990) |
CKB | 78 / 79 (1973) | 79 / 78 (1973) |
PKB | 78 / 79 (2009) | 79 / 78 (1990) |
BKW | 74 / 77 (2016) | 77 / 74 (2006) |
EKN | 78T/ 78 (2016) | 79 / 76 (2006) |
---------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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