652
FXUS61 KRLX 250354
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1154 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE
~06Z TAF FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS THE BIG PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ARE THE ONLY MAIN POINTS FOR THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR EACH MORNING, BUT WIDESPREAD
FORMATION LOOKS LOW CONFIDENCE.
PLEASANT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING
IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO A
VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH 30S AND 40S BEING THE NORM
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT OF THESE TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL BE COMMON FOR MANY
LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY DRY DEW POINTS AND WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER IS LOW RISK THOUGH DUE TO
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WITH THE STAGNANT AIR MASS.
NEXT CHANCES OR RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT SATURDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN THEN
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING QUITE YET. DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THEN.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL FORM LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN ~09Z AND ~14Z, BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER
ARE FORECASTED AT PKB AND EKN DUE TO THIS. ELSEWHERE, FOG IS NOT
FORECASTED DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR AND WINDS ALOFT.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY ~14Z SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
SE'RLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR EACH MORNING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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