643
FXUS61 KRLX 061834
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AS LOWLANDS WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER CONCERNS. AVIATION FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
2) BEHIND THE FRONT: COOLER ON THURSDAY, WITH FROST CONCERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AHEAD OF
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND
ANOTHER ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT FORCING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VA COUNTIES.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WHERE THERE IS STRONGER FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN RISKS WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GRAUPEL SHOWERS. THIS CONCERN IS STILL LOW AS MOSTLY EXPECTING
GLOOMY STRATIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD BE
PICKED UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF RAINFALL SET UP. FLOODING IS OF LOW
CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE POOR
DRAINAGE MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MOVE OVER AND TOTAL HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
PROJECTED.
THE TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE LOWLANDS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH 50S AND LOWER
60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK COME FRIDAY
MORNING AS MODELS SHOW SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
ARRIVE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER AND WIND COULD CREATE SOME QUARREL WITH
FROST FORMATION, MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
THE MOUNTAINS ARE MORE OF A PROBABLE AREA FOR FROST FORMATION
DUE TO LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WARM SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE LOWLANDS EXPECTED TO
RISE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TOO ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A TERTIARY FRONT WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG IT
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY CREATING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MENAGERIE OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT, SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. IFR OR LOWER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
AT CRW AND CKB. HTS AND PKB WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR OR EVEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, IMPACTING BKW AND EKN. ADDED
VCTS TO THESE SITES AS WELL AS CRW AND CKB TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.
MODELS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VIS BETWEEN ~22 AND
~03Z THIS EVENING. SOME SITES MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR,
BUT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IFR, LIFR,
AND EVEN AREA OF VLIFR WILL BE PROMINENT AREA WIDE. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE SW'RLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHIFTING NW'RLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE FRONT CROSSES,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. NW'RLY
WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AS STAGNANT AIR AND
MOISTURE LINGERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CIGS IMPROVE
TO MVFR/VFR LATER THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CREATE VIS RESTRICTIONS.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THURSDAY WILL VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H L L H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H M
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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