876
FXUS61 KRLX 091810
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING VERY
LIGHT.
2. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
3. LATE SEASON FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS.
4. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA OUT TOWARD THE
EAST AND WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE AND THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS LOW, HOWEVER IF ACTIVITY OCCURS THEY WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE. CLOUDS THEN CLEAR OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND CHANCES FOR
VALLEY FOG MAY BECOME APPARENT WHERE AREAS DECOUPLE. OUTSIDE THE
VALLEYS SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN A MORE POTENT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST SHEAR AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA. SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY NOT AFFECT THE
DROUGHT STATUS AT ALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE A COOLER START TO THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY. FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW FROST TO DEVELOP OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALSO PROMOTE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS IT IS
POSSIBLE TO HAVE PATCHY FROST IN AREAS OF KNOWN COLD SPOTS OR IN
DEEPER PROTECTED VALLEYS. THIS POTENTIAL COULD THREATEN
SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS BY MIDWEEK AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES TOWARD THE AREA AND IMPACTS US WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONGER
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH A MORE
MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITONS WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY SHOWER COULD
BRING VIS DOWN TO MVFR ON THE ONSET, BUT WOULD BE VERY
TEMPORARY. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS
SHOULD STAY AROUND 050FT OR ABOVE AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP OFF THIS EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO MVFR BRIEFLY TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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