922  
FXUS61 KRLX 071052  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
652 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHIFTY FRONT KEEPS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MEANDERING IN  
AND OUT OF THE AREA, WITH A RELATIVE LULL TODAY AND TONIGHT, AN  
UPTICK ON FRIDAY, AND THEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...  
 
LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS STRETCHED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SOME  
AREAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING, WHERE VSBYS HAVE  
FALLEN BENEATH A HALF A MILE. OPTED FOR AN SPS FOR THE NEXT TWO  
HOURS TO DENOTE THIS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.  
 
REFURBISHED POPS A TAD IN NORTHEAST WV BASED ON RADAR TRENDS  
THIS MORNING WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PROSPER NEAR UPSHUR  
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES. NEARING THE END OF THESE SHOWERS FOR THE  
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE BEFORE ISOLATED  
CONVECTION SPROUTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...  
 
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAINTAINS DOMINANCE  
TODAY, WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DOWN INTO THE  
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED DIRECTLY  
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND IS PROJECTED TO SLUGGISHLY SHIFT  
SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
WITH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PAST FEW DAYS, THE BULK OF  
CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS  
CONVECTION FIRING UP TODAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE  
STRONGER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, A FEW DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERUSE THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE  
SUNSET. FLOODING AND SEVERE CONCERNS WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN  
COMPARISON TO THE ACTIVE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WE EXPERIENCED.  
SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANVIL BLOW OFF FROM STORMS  
SPROUTING WITHIN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PROCEEDING TO OOZE INTO  
THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS LATE TONIGHT.  
 
WHILE NOT MUCH OF A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL NESTLE CLOSER TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL  
NORM THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD, IN RESPONSE TO LOW TO MID 70 DEW POINTS  
STILL FESTERING OVERHEAD, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 505 AM THURSDAY...  
 
THE NAM12 APPEARS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER AND, AT FIRST GLANCE,  
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A SLOWER AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH TRACK  
THAT WOULD STILL HAVE THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS ALL SHOW THE SHIFTY  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUCKLING HITHER AND TITHER,  
AND TAKING THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY TO GET THE FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM12 WAS ALSO THE FIRST MODEL TO PICK UP  
ON SHIFTING THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AXIS LARGELY SOUTH OF THE  
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS LIKELY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE  
PERIOD GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING, WITH A WAVY FRONT AND MID/UPPER  
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.  
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE VERY WARM,  
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT FOR A  
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE. HOWEVER, WITH  
RECENT CONVECTION WORKING THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF  
DAYS, MODELS ARE GENERALLY ONLY FORECASTING AROUND 1-2 KJ/KG  
CAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TO GO ALONG WITH 30-35  
KTS BULK SHEAR, THE HIGHER SHEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT AND  
INSTABILITY.  
 
PW VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES WITH AREAS OF FORCED ASCENT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMING IN NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK  
HEATING, SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION WITH HIGH AREA COVERAGE ALONG  
AND EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO COPIOUS RAINFALL THAT  
COULD BECOME EXCESSIVE. THERE ARE SEVERAL REGIONS WITHIN THE  
FORECAST AREA THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST  
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ARE VULNERABLE WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE  
VALUES AS A RESULT, DOWN IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE PER 3 HOURS  
EAST OF A LONGITUDE LINE RUNNING THROUGH ABOUT HTS.  
 
THESE THREATS ARE DEPICTED WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND A SLIGHT  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, DURING THE  
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE TO REALIZE  
THESE THREATS WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,  
EXCEPT DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ON THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.  
 
WHILE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE  
AREA SATURDAY, THE WAVY FRONT BUCKLES, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH  
EXTENDING NORTH OF IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. WITH WEAK  
MID LEVEL RIPPLES, AND INSTABILITY, ALBEIT WEAK, PROGGED AS FAR  
WEST AS THIS INVERTED TROUGH, SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY IN AND NEAR  
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE WEST, AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE AND EVEN BACK INTO THE MIDDLE  
OHIO VALLEY AS WELL. THIS FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH OF A FAR  
CRY FROM THE NAM12 SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LESS  
IMPACTFUL.  
 
THIS IS REFLECTED VIA A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK THROUGHOUT THE  
AREA SATURDAY, LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,  
WITH A MARGINAL RISK JUST TO THE SOUTH, BUT A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
THE WAVY FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY, BUT WITH AN  
INVERTED TROUGH STILL OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH  
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN  
STILL OCCUR THAT FAR WEST ON SUNDAY.  
 
CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS STILL UP AROUND NORMAL OR EVEN A  
BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY, AND THEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE  
WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE WARM AND A BIT MUGGY,  
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, AND THEN SATURDAY NIGHT  
WILL BE A BIT COOLER, NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS AND A BIT MORE  
COMFORTABLE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 505 AM THURSDAY...  
 
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN, PARTICULARLY  
FOR MID SUMMER, BUILDS THIS PERIOD, AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS  
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS  
OVER THE ASTERN U.S.  
 
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK, A SHORT  
WAVE TROUGH CONTRIBUTING TO CARVING OUT THE DEEPER LONG WAVE  
TROUGH, PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP ON MOVING,  
ALLOWING THE RETURN OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,  
THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING SHORTLY  
THEREAFTER.  
 
CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE  
NORMAL EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE. LOWS  
WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, EXCEPT NEAR TO A LITTLE  
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...  
 
A COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS SQUANDERED FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DRAPES  
ITSELF OVERHEAD. MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION  
BEYOND THE FOG EROSION AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT  
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD BEGIN TO  
BRANCH OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME MIXING.  
 
THE FRONT WILL SLUGGISHLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY, WHICH ALSO  
SHIFTS THE MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION DOWN INTO VIRGINIA  
AND THE CAROLINAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SPROUT  
IN THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND EAST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT  
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND COULD MISS ALL THE TAF SITES  
ENTIRELY TODAY. OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH/VCTS WHERE GUIDANCE PEGS  
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE.  
 
WINDS ONCE AGAIN SETTLE TO CALM AND VARIABLE LEVELS THIS  
EVENING. COUPLED WITH THE PLETHORA OF LLVL MOISTURE HANGING  
ABOUT, THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR  
EARLY MORNING STRATUS AT MOST TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS  
MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSITY OF FOG AND/OR LOW LEVEL  
STRATUS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H M H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H M H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L H M M H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...  
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK  
NEAR TERM...MEK  
SHORT TERM...TRM  
LONG TERM...TRM  
AVIATION...MEK  
 
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