052
FXUS61 KRLX 010230
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2023
SYNOPSIS
LATE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOST STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1024 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPDATED DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND
OF MODELS AND THIS INCREASED THE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS BY
1 OR 2 DEGREES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO TREND THIS
WAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE ON THE TABLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN AREAS THAT SAW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE FOG MORE LIKELY IN THAT AREA.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AREAS IN THE METRO VALLEY OR THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE FOG. THE KANAWHA RIVER IS IN THE
68-70 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH IS FAIRLY WARM AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN CHARLESTON
TONIGHT. THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS ALSO CLOSING FAIRLY QUICKLY
TOO WITH 63 DEGREES UNDER AN AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE OF 69.
OVERALL, THOUGHTS ARE LIKELY MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEY FOG,
PARTICULARLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. RIVER VALLEY AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG TOO. THE METRO VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE
SHALLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG IN SPOTS, BUT IT MAY ONLY BE CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
AS OF 648 PM WEDNESDAY...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS ON TRACK. SEEING
SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, NAMELY NICHOLAS COUNTY,
WEBSTER COUNTY, AND FAR WESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THOUGH THESE
SHOWERS ARE DYING OFF, A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
MAYBE A ROGUE RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY PACE WESTWARD.
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE EXISTS FROM IN THE VICINITY OF ELKINS TO
NORTH OF CHARLESTON THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY HERE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, JUST SOME PUFFY
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TWO
DAYS DISPLACED FROM OUR RECENT RAINFALL AND WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING TONIGHT, WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH VALLEY FOG TO BE ABLE TO
FORM, IF ANY DOES IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY: HOT WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL CARRY ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO FORM A LITTLE BIT OUT INTO
THE FOOTHILLS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 142 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO OUR WEST
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE REGION DRY.
THE HIGH FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PRODUCT THAT I WILL ISSUE AS AN EMPLOYEE
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. I RETIRE TODAY AFTER 34 YEARS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1213 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE LOW. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW OVER PA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST.
PER THE ECMWF, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND
THE AREA BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND THAT
INDICATES A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS BEING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL
GIVE WAY TO 60S AND 70S ON THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 706 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SKC OR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME SHOWERS ARE
FLOATING AROUND IN THE MOUNTAINS, SOUTH OF EKN, BUT THESE ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
WINDS VARIABLE THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFTING MAINLY EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 4-7KTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS GOING
CALM AT CRW AND EKN TONIGHT, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RIVER
WARM RIVER TEMPERATURES, FOG LOOKS LIKELY FOR THESE TWO SITES.
CRW MAY SEE A DELAYED START TO THIS THOUGH, IF THE WINDS DO NOT
DECOUPLE AND LOWER THE TEMPERATURES QUICK ENOUGH. EVEN IF THERE
IS A DELAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FOG NEAR THE SITE BY
~12Z. EXPECTING VFR TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES BY ~15Z IF FOG
FORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. MEDIUM FOR FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/01/23
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/LTC
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...LTC
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