707
FXUS61 KRLX 251747
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TUESDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM KEEPS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BENEFICIAL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING COLDER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
2.) A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
3.) MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE WEEK, BRINGING A THREAT FOR
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS A
THERMODYNAMICALLY LIMITED ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE
CORES WILL REMAIN ISOLATED, AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED HEAVIER ELEMENTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BLANKET THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ROUTINELY MIXES OUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TOO AGGRESSIVELY IN POST-FRONTAL
APPALACHIAN REGIMES. THEREFORE, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BELOW CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN RETAINED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FILTERED SUNSHINE
MAY EVENTUALLY YIELD ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO, PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE DEARTH OF CENTRAL
GUIDANCE POPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ATTENTION THEN
SHIFTS TO A DECAYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. KINEMATICS ARE ROBUST DURING THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, DRIVEN BY A 55 TO 60 KT H850 JET. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HEAVILY LIMITED AND ELEVATED ABOVE THE
SURFACE LAYER.
A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR WOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. FIRST, UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
OVERTURN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, REDUCING A NARROW RIBBON OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY EVEN
FURTHER. SECOND, A RELATIVE LULL IN KINEMATICS COINCIDENT WITH
PEAK HEATING COULD TO REDUCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50KTS
DOWN TO 25 TO 35KTS, LIMITING STORM ORGANIZATION DEPENDING ON
TIMING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THREAT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF THE BOUNDARY
WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS MORNING'S RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY BRINGING
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE STIFLED BY A
DEARTH OF INSTABILITY. THIS COULD STILL BRING SOME PRIMARILY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT CONSENSUS
MAINTAINS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST.
THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS TO AREAS SUBJECT
TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE AWAY. LOW END PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE MAINTAINED LATE WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
IMPACT TERMINALS (MINUS HTS AND PKB WHERE FROPA HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED) THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THE
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE TRAPPING BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD
IFR TO MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
AT MOUNTAINOUS TERMINALS LIKE BECKLEY AND ELKINS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE MORE FOG
TONIGHT THAN ADVERTISED FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE
RAIN TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H L M H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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