774
FXUS61 KRLX 090732
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
EXCLUDING ELEVATIONS AT AND HIGHER THAN 3,000 FEET WHERE GROWING
SEASON HASN'T STARTED YET. THE ADVISORY GOES FROM 2 AM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
AS OF 209 AM FRIDAY...
A RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, AND EXPANDS
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A COMPACTED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE, CLIPS OUR NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PERHAPS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS
LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND CONTINUING NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY,
RANGING FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, INTO THE LOWER 50S HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S EXTREME SOUTHERN SE OH AND WV, INTO THE UPPER 30S
REST OF THE LOWLANDS. MID TO LOWER 30S CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 36F RUNS ABOUT 80-90 PERCENT, PARTICULARLY
IN FAVORED, SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
A NEARLY BAROTROPIC UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIMIT ADVECTION ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
YIELDING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST OUTSIDE OF A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS. MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL YIELD MILD DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LOW WILL START HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE NEW WORK
WEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY WIDE GIVEN TYPICALLY POOR
HANDLING OF CUT-OFF FEATURES. THE GENERAL TREND IS MORE TOWARD AN
OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CLOSED CONTOURS AS IT EVENTUALLY
TRANSITS OVERHEAD.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LONG DWELL TIME OVER THE SOUTH, AND NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO BEGIN
WITH, NOT EXPECTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE,
ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF SPRING SUN ANGLE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD SOME MODEST CAPE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
PRETTY MODEST, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO GO AS LIGHT AS EARLIER
ADVERTISED ON TUESDAY GIVEN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF AN OPEN WAVE.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CAN KICK OUT.
ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE REGION, WE LOOK TO GET INTO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH COULD YIELD A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 133 AM FRIDAY...
ALL OF THE CONVECTION MOVED EAST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST TERMINALS.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST ARE FILLING UP WITH LOW
STRATUS. THIS LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PKB AND HTS EARLY
TONIGHT. THEN, ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AFFECTING EKN AND BKW OVERNIGHT. EVEN CRW
COULD HAVE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER FOG OR LOW
STRATUS. ANY IFR RESTRICTION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR BY
12-13Z FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN TO VFR LATER INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CLIP OUR
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS KEEPING LOW
STRATUS LINGERING LONGER THERE INTO THE EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTION MAY BOUNCE TONIGHT IN AND OUT
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/09/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L H M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ032-039-
040-517>522-524-525.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ
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