693
FXUS61 KRLX 300142
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DIE BY NIGHTFALL. A POTENT LOW BRINGS
STOUT RAINFALL FRIDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS
LINGER SATURDAY. DRY NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 700 PM THURSDAY...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THUS FAR. ONLY NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO
WHAT NEWER GUIDANCE HAD IN THERE WHICH DID NOT EQUATE TO MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE, JUST MINOR CHANGES. TOOK OUT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
APPLIED TWEAKS TO THE AVIATION FORECAST PARAMETERS (WINDS, SKY
CONDITONS, CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY).
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS
WV THIS AFTERNOON, IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FLAT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND A SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM
ONE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
THEY APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS IN RESPONSE TO AFTERNOON HEATING.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A SHOWER
MAY GROW INTO A THUNDERSTORM.
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND/OR DIE WITH THE
SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND TONIGHT WILL START WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO START
FORMING OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS ARRIVING TOWARD DAWN SHOULD LIMIT
ITS INTENSITY AND DURATION, COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COMPACT BUT STOUT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY, ITS MID/UPPER/LEVEL COUNTERPART SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPOT
LOW FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND IT. THIS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
FOCUSED ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EFFICIENTLY SQUEEZE OUT
PW VALUES OF 1-1.3 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IF A FOCUSED DEFORMATION
BAND SETS UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGH
WATER IF MESOSCALE RAIN BANDS TRAIN IN RESPONSE. HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK, WHICH IS WHEN AND WHERE PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE
HIGHEST. MODEL QPF IS STILL BIMODAL, WITH ONE CAMP OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN WV. THE SOUTHERN
CAMP HAS THE MOST SUPPORT AND IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
MODEST SHEAR AT ALL LEVELS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG, WITH DAMAGING WIND HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO ALL
POSSIBLE, WHERE CAPE CAN REACH 500-1000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE NOT ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME, BUT DOES HAVE THE
AREA OUTLOOKED FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS EAST
OF THE OHIO RIVER. THERE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE BEING
CAPPED WITH THE RAINY DAY ON TAP TO CLOSE OUT THIS SHORT WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AREA. ALTHOUGH
WE WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, IT WILL BE
CONTINUED COOL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND BREEZY, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE. MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
FAR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. CONTINUED COOL, WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN U.S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO AFFECT THE AREA, BUT FOR NOW, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A DRY AND WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER, BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, PROVIDING MORE
ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS FOR NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR DRY WEATHER TO
ROUND OUT THE EXTENDED, OR IF IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IF THE
LATTER SCENARIO OCCURS, EXPECTING ANOTHER SOAKING ROUND OF RAINS FOR
THE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS DONE FOR NOW UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS ON ITS WAY OUT BUT MORE
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS WILL ADVECT IN AND DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE CODED UP ALL SITES WITH IFR OR WORSE IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS
UNTIL SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO LOW MVFR OR
BETTER BY LATE MORNING THEN A SYSTEM BRINGS IN RAIN FROM THE
WEST STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN TERMINALS FIRST WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VIS
UNDER HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
HEIGHT AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME GOES FOR THE
EASTERN SITES WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE WIND WILL PICK UP SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BKW
WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND IN VIS/CIGS.
TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY,
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEEDED ADDED TO SOUTHERN SITES FOR FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L M L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H M H H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ
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