269
FXUS61 KRLX 182342
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...
SIGNIFICANT OVERTURNING WITH EARLY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INTENSITY OF ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION JUST PASSING I-70 AT
THIS HOUR. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IF IT PASSES OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AS OF 137 PM SATURDAY...
ACTIVE TODAY WITH STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A
FRONT. BRIEFLY DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, AND AS A
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO PROMPT
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
2) IMPACTS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE DECREASE TODAY.
3) NEXT CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS ARRIVES TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW TRAVERSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY AND THEN CONTINUES
ONWARD TO THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE ON SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL DESCEND INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESENCE OF A WARM, MOIST, AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, COMBINED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE, SHOULD FACILITATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND A HALF
SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY
MULTIPLE STORMS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR AFTER SUNDOWN, THEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE FRONT RECEDES SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA AS
SMOKE IS SWEPT NORTHWARD TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, AN AIR QUALITY
ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SOME IMPACTS COULD LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW SWINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE EASTERN US.
THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS
ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED A 15 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY WHILE WPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, ALLOWING
QUIETER WEATHER TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS DRY SPELL MAY
BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MULTIPLE WEAKENING LINES OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR DISSIPATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS
WITH ANY TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY 3-5SM.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT FOG IN ALL BUT
THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS FORMING INSTEAD. CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER
16Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY MORE THAN ADVERTISED. A MIX OF FOG
AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
IMPROVEMENTS ON SUNDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ007>011-
016>020-029>032-039-040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/20
AVIATION...JP
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