848
FXUS61 KRLX 201832
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY, THEN REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST
THIS PERIOD. AFTER MAKING SHOWERS NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
ITS POSITION OVER THE HTS TRI-STATE AREA, IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THEN SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WERE MOST NUMEROUS BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, AND IN
AN AREA BENEATH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL WAVE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, AND THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WAVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE COLD CORE ALOFT, ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW, DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS MAKES SNOW SHOWERS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, BUT WITH
ACCUMULATION UNLIKELY AS SNOWSHOE JUST ABOUT GETS DOWN TO
FREEZING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, SO CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. HOWEVER, LACK OF
FORCING, AND LIGHT FLOW LIMITING UPSLOPE EFFECTS, WILL ALLOW
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO WANE.
BLENDED ON NEAR TERM, CONSENSUS AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES, WITH CLOUDS LIMITING THE DIURNAL RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA BUT POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL STAY NEAR
THE REGION UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY,
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DETAILS ON THE POSITION OF
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE VARIES BETWEEN MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BILLOW UP BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE AREA, CENTERED AROUND THE HTS TRI-STATE AREA. THE
SHOWERS WERE IN TWO MAIN BANDS. ONE WAS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH
BISECTING THE STATE OF WV FROM BKW TO CRW TO PKB. THESE WILL
TEND TO REBUILD FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE BUILDING / FILLING EASTWARD ACROSS CKB AND
EKN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BAND WAS OVER THE HTS TRI-
STATE AREA, WHICH WAS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BEFORE
GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH SUNSET. SO, SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CLOUD BASED SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3500 FEET.
THE SHOWERS WILL WANE THROUGH SUNSET, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AND THE SUN SETS. STRATOCU WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THOUGH, WITH BASES SETTLING THROUGH THE
MVFR BRACKET, AND IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE BACK
UP THROUGH THE MVFR BRACKET SUNDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY, AS SOLAR
HEATING DEEPENS THE MIXING LAYER. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO BREAK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL WV, GIVEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT TO CALM FLOW.
SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO CALM TONIGHT, AND THEN LIGHT WEST ON
MONDAY, ALL BENEATH LIGHT SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY VARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H L H M H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H L M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M M H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AND / OR STRATUS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BRIEF IFR AT TIMES IN THUNDERSTORMS
MIDWEEK, BEGINNING UP NORTH AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM
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