135
FXUS61 KRLX 201734
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
MORE STORMS THIS WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE OHIO WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TODAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, COURTESY OF PEAK HEATING AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND A LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING ISSUE COULD OCCUR IN LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS,
BUT OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY FROM LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE, AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CANADA. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION, CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO 50S
AREA WIDE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY FROM 18Z-01Z, WITH BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SE
OHIO, NE KY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WV PARTICULARLY AFTER 20Z.
HOWEVER, AFTER 03Z, FOG AND/OR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FIRST, THEN AREA WIDE AFTER 06Z. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS, AND WIDESPREAD TO AREAS OF LIFR/VLIFR
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY LINGERING THROUGH 12-13Z THURSDAY WHEN GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE NOTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING
THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY. TIMING OF AND RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H M M L
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG MOST MORNINGS THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
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