256
FXUS61 KRLX 131335
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER HEAT
WAVE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...
IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS ACTUALLY A LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS
COMBINATION OCCURRING RIGHT NOW, AND AT THIS POINT, THE STRATUS
HAS BEEN PROTECTING THE FOG FROM MIXING AS THE SUN ANGLE
INCREASES. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN THE TEMPERATURES, AS HERE AT THE
OFFICE, WE ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S AT THE TIME OF THIS
ISSUANCE. REWORKED THESE VALUES GOING FORWARD AS WELL HAS ABOUT
3 HOURS WORTH OF SKY COVER GRIDS FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS.
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1 HOUR OR SO.
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION. A SPS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW VISIBILITY IMPACTS HEADING INTO
THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH A HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A MOUNTAIN SHOWER BUT
CHANCES ARE SO LOW I ELECTED TO KEEP THE AREA VOID OF POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE COMFY SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING GIVING WAY TO A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 243 AM MONDAY...
H5 S/W RIDGE AXIS IS PROG TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY, AND THUS ONLY A MINOR INCREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
(FROM MONDAY) SHOULD OCCUR. S/W RIDGE AXIS THEN BEGINS TO
STRETCH AND EVENTUALLY MELD INTO THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC MID
LEVEL RIDGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOTABLY HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH OF THESE DAYS WITH MANY AREAS
RETURNING TO THE 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUIDANCE SUITES
CONTINUE TO HINT AT POSSIBLY SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE H5 RIDGE BY THURSDAY, BUT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SAID CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER
QUESTIONABLE. FOR NOW, WILL CAP POPS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AT
30%.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 243 AM MONDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
H5 RIDGE AXIS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL OVERHEAD WITH CONTINUED HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS LIKELY. HEAT RIDGE MAY TRY TO BREAK DOWN A
LITTLE BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT GUIDANCE SUITES OFTEN STRUGGLE
WITH HOW WELL THEY HANDLE LATENT HEAT FLUX WITH THESE TYPES OF
SET-UPS, ESPECIALLY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. THUS, WILL ONCE AGAIN
CAP POPS AT "CHANCE" LEVELS AND MAINTAIN HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z, PERHAPS INTO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AMID A
SCT 4-6KFT CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
AREAS OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT,
WITH MOST TERMINALS, SAVE FOR BKW, EXPERIENCING LIFR TO VLIFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING ONSET OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY
AN HOUR OR TWO.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR RIVER FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RH/30
NEAR TERM...26/30
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...30
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