521
FXUS61 KRLX 041941
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COLD TONIGHT. A BROAD CANADIAN LOW WILL LIKELY DIRECT
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE REGION DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, PROVIDING A MORE
RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEAR CALM FLOW. WITH COLD AIR IN
PLACE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
LATER TONIGHT. H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME WAA TO BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS A FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT, A WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE COULD ACCRUE BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN
OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO
FOREGO ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROJECTED TO STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
MEANWHILE, LOWS START OUT IN THE 30S TO 40S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
REMAIN IN THE 40S TO MID 50S BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THERE
CONTINUE TO BE VARIATIONS IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA. OVERALL, MODELS
SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. RAIN DIMINISHES FOR THE LOWLANDS AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS AND THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE; HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO PERSIST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1242 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, PROVIDING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ
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