662
FXUS64 KJAN 281942
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON-EVENING: THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SOMEWHAT MORE TAME
EARLIER THIS MORNING, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THIS ONLY A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE. ADDITIONAL EARLY TO LATE EVENING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE AIRMASS
HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, WITH PWS GENERALLY IN THE
1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE FROM THE I-20 TO I-10 CORRIDORS, WITH BUILDING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DCAPES ALONG THE GULF COAST. MORNING UPPER
AIR/RAP ANALYSIS & WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW, WITH A COLD CORE LOW SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO CENTRAL TX. THIS IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD, HELPING ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST &
SOUTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH POTENTIAL OF GENERALLY 15-
30KTS SOUTHWESTERLY BACKGROUND FLOW IN THE 0-2KM & 0-3KM LAYERS &
DUE ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE BACKGROUND FLOW TO THE PROJECTED
AFTN CONVECTION, THIS WILL AID IN MCS ORGANIZATION MOVING NORTHWARD
OFF THE GULF COAST INTO THE HWY 84 TO I-20 CORRIDORS. THERE COULD BE
EFFICIENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION & PERSISTENCE, WHICH FITS MORE
SNEAKER SEVERE EVENTS IN OUR AREA. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SPC, A
"SLIGHT" WAS ADDED INTO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
WIND EFFICIENCY & PROBABILITIES.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60MPH & QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. TIMING WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 6PM TO 11PM, GENERALLY
BEFORE 8PM ALONG & SOUTH OF HWY 84 & THROUGH 11PM TO THE NORTH. HWO
GRAPHICS OUTLOOKS WILL BE ADJUSTED & TIMING IS GOING TO BE ADDED
SHORTLY. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
(82-90F) & RAIN & STORM COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO
THIS EVENING (35-65%) WHILE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-45%) THIS
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 & INTO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
UPDATES ARE OUT.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY: RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN TYPICAL SPOTS THAT RECEIVED GOOD RAIN OR
WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
SOME 2-5F ABOVE NORMAL (65-69F). WITH WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING &
INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION (PWS APPROACHING 1.75-1.9 INCHES),
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE (55-90%) WILL BE LIKELY.
INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW OF 25-35KTS IN THE 0-3KM TO 0-6KM LAYERS
WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
AFTN TO EVENING. ONGOING HWO GRAPHIC LOOKS INTACT, BUT THERE IS LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR AGAIN BEFORE SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION IN THE WAKE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOWER BUT WILL DEPEND ON PRIOR
MESOSCALE SETUP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMPLEX OF
STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, IN EXCESS OF 2-
3", ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR, BUT POTENTIAL SCATTERED
NATURE LIMITS CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN AN HWO GRAPHIC. WITH RAIN &
STORMS AROUND, HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL, SOME 2-5F BELOW NORMAL
(79-84F). /DC/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:
THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS UPPER-LVL TROUGH
WILL PUSH A PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED, COULD MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THE FRONT.
RIDGING PATTERN WILL BUILD IN POST FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEW WEEK. AN ISOLATED, AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS UPPER-LVL, NORTHWEST FLOW PUSH A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 80S/LOWS IN THE 60S) ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PERSIST AT MAJORITY OF TAF SITES, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING AT MEI BUT ONLY TEMPORARILY. SHRA &
TSRA CHANCES INCREASE BETWEEN 28/22Z WEDNESDAY TO 29/04Z THURSDAY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN VARIABLE
CEILING/VSBY & WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY >30MPH WILL BE AT HBG, PIB,
MEI & PSBL AT JAN, HKS & HEZ. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN &
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG & LOWERED CEILINGS/STRATUS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY PREDAWN WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES LIKELY
THROUGH 29/13-15Z BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN VSBY & SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. ADDITIONAL LOW PROBS (30-55%) OF SHRA &
SOME TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 29/14-18Z THURSDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 83 68 79 / 50 90 30 30
MERIDIAN 66 83 66 81 / 40 90 40 50
VICKSBURG 68 83 67 80 / 60 80 30 20
HATTIESBURG 70 84 71 84 / 50 100 30 60
NATCHEZ 67 83 68 79 / 60 90 20 30
GREENVILLE 68 81 65 78 / 30 70 50 10
GREENWOOD 66 82 65 78 / 30 80 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW/DC
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