509
FXUS64 KJAN 170546 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1146 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A COLDER AIRMASS.
- PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WE'RE IN FOR QUITE A PATTERN CHANGE
BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITHIN WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND UNDER FULL TO NEAR FULL INSOLATION, TEMPS ARE
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS FRONT IS
ALREADY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, DEPARTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THOUGH
PRECIP IS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT RIGHT NOW, A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ROUGHLY ALONG
THE NATCHEZ TRACE. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF HERE MAY MISS OUT ON
RAIN ALTOGETHER. FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE RAIN, AMOUNTS WILL BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A
HALF INCH.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND TURN COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA WILL SEE SUN DURING THE DAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
PESKIER FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN A DRIER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AT THIS STAGE, THE CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO COASTAL MS, THOUGH WE
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT STRAY NONIMPACTFUL SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
MAINLY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR. WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AND TEMPS FALLING
TO THE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: COLD AND DRY WILL BE THE MAIN THEME OVER
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND'S FRONTS THERE
WILL BE A REINFORCING FRONT ON MONDAY SUSTAINING THE COLDER, DRIER
AIRMASS. DAYS WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH WIND CHILLS LINGERING IN THE 30S IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE OUR COLDEST TIME FRAME WITH TEMPS IN THE
TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NORTH MS. FORTUNATELY WIND
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LIMITING THE
ADDED IMPACT TO APPARENT TEMPS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GIVEN THIS APPEARS TO BE A MARGINAL
CASE AND WITH TEMPS RECOVERING DURING THE DAY, THERE ARE NO
IMMINENT PLANS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD WEATHER THREAT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY: OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AND
FLUCTUATE RUN TO RUN WITH THE HANDLING OF AN ACTIVE UPPER TROUGH.
WE DO HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
SHIFT BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH RETURNING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. IT'S A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND LOCATION
DETAILS, SO THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS SITES AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS-RA/RA
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 AND EASTERN MS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. -RA/RA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 09Z
SATURDAY. VFR FLIGHT CONDITION WITH WINDS OF 10 KTS/GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS EXPECTED OVER THE DAY. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 37 52 25 / 10 70 0 0
MERIDIAN 64 37 53 24 / 0 80 0 0
VICKSBURG 68 35 52 24 / 10 40 0 0
HATTIESBURG 67 43 56 30 / 0 70 10 10
NATCHEZ 70 38 53 26 / 0 50 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 33 47 23 / 10 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 64 33 50 21 / 20 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/SW
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