420
FXUS64 KJAN 060527
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGER PORTION
OF THE REGION.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEEK ON MONDAY. THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY, WITH MOST IMPACTFUL
TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A NEAR CALM WIND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
OFF AS EXPECTED AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY BY
SUNRISE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE DENSE FOG
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THROUGH LATE WEEK:
THE MAJORITY OF THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR ZONAL FLOW AND QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SUPPORTS SOME
MORE EXPANSIVE DENSE FOG AGAIN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HREF SHOWS
ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT MORE EXPANSIVELY AS RETURN FLOW PICKS UP. A DENSE FOG
HAZARD GRAPHIC WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, BUT FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES,
WILL ONLY ADVERTISE THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT IN HAZARD
GRAPHICS. DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES REACH WELL IN EXCESS OF 75
PERCENT OVER A MAJORITY OF REGION, SO A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN
ADVISORY NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, KEEPING
BEST MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE. AT THE MOST, SOME CLOUDS COULD BUILD
IN, ESPECIALLY IF FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IS MORE EXPANSIVE, BUT
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO SEASONABLY WARM: HIGHS 5F TO
8F ABOVE THURSDAY (75F TO 82F). A DEEPER PUSH OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND JET ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE CONUS LATE WEEK INTO
FRIDAY, WITH AROUND 990MB SURFACE LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME DEEP LAYER FLOW AROUND 30 TO
40KTS WHICH SUPPORT SOME LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION. MAIN TIMING IS
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD: HIGHS 8F TO
12F ABOVE FRIDAY (77F TO 84F) AND LOWS 10F TO 15F ABOVE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS (52F TO 64F).
NEXT WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK:
THE MAIN CONCERN TURNS TO LIKELY FREEZE AND AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ARKLATEX, AND GULF
COAST STATES. 1038 TO 1042MB SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SINK INTO
THESE AREAS, WITH POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD AGRICULTURAL KILLING
FREEZE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. NBM PROBABILITIES OF A LIGHT
FREEZE FAVOR HIGH CHANCES (GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT) FOR MOST AREAS
AND MODERATE CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) TO FALL BELOW 28F
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MS DELTA AND NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, BLENDED ENSEMBLE SUITE INDICATES THE
MEDIAN VALUE IS POTENTIALLY COLDER, LEADING CREDENCE TO A COLDER
SIGNAL. HAS TRENDED DRASTICALLY COLDER RECENTLY (4F TO 6F DROP).
THIS TYPE OF SIGNAL IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT, WITH SEASONABLY TEMPS,
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS SOME 10F TO 20F BELOW. NBM ENSEMBLE GROUP
(25TH PERCENTILE RANGE) FAVORS SOME TEMPERATURE RECORDS. GRAPHIC
LOOKS GOOD OVERALL MESSAGING WISE, JUST REFINED TIMING TO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED
VEGETATION AND CROPS. THE COLDEST POTENTIAL IS TUESDAY MORNING, AS
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE ARKLATEX. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, SO FAVORS
COLDER ENSEMBLE SUITE. IT WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY AND COLD MONDAY
WITH THE GRADIENT WIND AROUND, WITH ALL AREAS STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE FREEZING MARK AND ALSO THE MID 20S. THE REST OF THE WEEK IS
REASONABLY QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z LIFR VSBYS
WL BE PSBL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MVFR VSBYS ACROSS CNTRL MS.
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 14Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 50 78 57 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 77 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 76 51 77 60 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 80 49 81 59 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 77 52 79 60 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 75 51 76 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/KP
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