968
FXUS64 KJAN 291150 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: WE REMAIN IN A QUITE HUMID AIRMASS, WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF. ADDITIONALLY, AN MCV THAT HELPED DRIVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY IS STILL LOCATED AROUND THE ARKLAMISS DELTA.
ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS REMAIN THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG GIVEN
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND THE REMNANT MCV CONTINUES TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH MS AND AR, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TRAILING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE DAILY
DRUMBEAT OF A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT MAY SEEM NEVERENDING, BUT GIVEN
90TH PERCENTILE PWS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA, CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN.
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. STILL, WITH THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINING MOIST, DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. BY
SUNDAY, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND PW TREND UPWARD AGAIN.
NEXT WEEK: THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STAGNANT OVER THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
EACH DAY. DURING THIS STRETCH, DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BEGIN TO REACH
THE 90S IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, THIS WILL NUDGE A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING A TEMPORARY
BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY FOR POINTS FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST IN THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS PREVIOUSLY DELAYED THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE AND VARIES ON HOW FAR IT MIGHT IMPINGE
INTO THE REGION, SO CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH HUMIDITY RELIEF AND
SUBTLE CHANGE IN TEMP WE WILL SEE IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, AREAS
LIKE THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DEWPOINTS DROP
INTO THE 60S AND MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THAN AREAS LIKE THE MISSLOU, WHERE DEWPOINTS AND MORNING
TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S THE ENTIRE TIME. REGARDLESS, ANY
RELIEF FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH A
RETURNING INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN BY NEXT
WEEKEND. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS HELPING
MORNING STRATUS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORICAL
RESTRICTIONS FROM STRATUS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR/LIFR, INCLUDING SOME
EARLY MORNING BR/FG (MEI, AND ESPECIALLY HBG AND PIB). THESE
LOWERED CATEGORY BR/FG ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WHILE BOTH BR/FG
AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY LATE MORNING
(GENERALLY AFTER 29/14-15Z FRIDAY). DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/VCTS
SHOULD PEAK DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATIONS REMAINS LOW. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME
WILL BE BETWEEN 29/19-23Z FRIDAY AND SOME PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z.
THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND BR/FG IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SITES NEAR DAYBREAK AT THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE
(AFTER 30/09-12Z). /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 70 88 72 / 70 20 30 0
MERIDIAN 84 69 87 71 / 50 40 40 0
VICKSBURG 85 71 89 73 / 60 20 50 10
HATTIESBURG 86 70 88 72 / 60 30 50 0
NATCHEZ 86 71 90 74 / 60 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 84 70 89 72 / 60 20 20 20
GREENWOOD 85 70 88 71 / 80 40 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/DC
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