540
FXUS64 KJAN 181925
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-55.
- FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THROUGH TOMORROW:
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENRAL AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE
EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY, THERE IS A LOW-END POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, MAINLY NORTH OF I-
20 AND EAST OF I-55. POSSIBLE HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND WHILE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE DISORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION,A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT. AS SUCH, A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER. SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE INITIATING TROUGH AXIS, FAVORING MORE DISCRETE STORM MODE
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60KTS, HELICITY AROUND 300-
400M^2/S^2 AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 600 -1000J/KG NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER
WILL SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUS
A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GHWO.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY TIMING, AS THE
WINDOW FOR STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE BRIEF, BETWEEN 4PM AND 7PM,
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE EVENING BUT WILL BE SUB-
SEVERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS MUCH COOLER AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 60S. /KP/
THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION:
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
FROST AND LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT AND
TRANSITIONS TO RIDGE DOMINANT BY MIDWEEK AS A 590 DAM H5 RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PIVOTS EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW
WEEK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AND TRANSIENT MOISTURE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED WHERE
MEASURABLE.
OF INTEREST, THE 7-DAY FORECAST INCLUDES HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
PUSHING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER AS
WE MOVE INTO THE CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HOLIDAYS. A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
NOT EXPECTED, BUT SANTA HIS REINDEER MAY ENJOY A MORE TROPICAL
EXPERIENCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK. /NF/CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. PERIODS
OF VSCH/-RA WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT 10-15KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 25KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST/WEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
02Z AS CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 38 54 38 69 / 30 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 37 54 33 67 / 60 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 36 55 39 71 / 20 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 41 60 36 72 / 40 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 39 59 41 73 / 20 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 34 50 37 67 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 33 51 36 68 / 30 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR/
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