131
FXUS64 KJAN 050838
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
338 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50 PERCENT) OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURING NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT BUT BEING MAINTAINED BY A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LARGE >1024MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL BUT HELP PUSH SOUTH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S-60S. LOWER 60 DEW POINTS WERE ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED OVER OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. BY TUESDAY MORNING DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL
BE NEARLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTH TODAY, RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH. BY THIS EVENING
ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOST
ZONES BUT THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL END BY MID EVENING. DESPITE THE
COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. /22/
TUESDAY-SATURDAY:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RE-ENFORCE THE DRY AIR OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS:
UPPER 80S/LOWS:UPPER 50S/60S) WILL REMAIN THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADDED A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO THE REGION, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (25-50%)
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS: RANGING IN THE 80S/LOWS: RANGING IN THE 60S)
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
GLH-GWO WL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH -RA
WL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z BEFORE IMPROVING AT GTR AND THEN AFTER 14Z
IMPROVING CNTRL AND EAST MS. CONDITIONS WL THEN CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE OVER THE SOUTH MON AFTN. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 64 87 63 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 83 64 85 61 / 30 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 86 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 84 66 86 63 / 30 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 84 64 87 63 / 10 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 87 59 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page