060
FXUS64 KJAN 311434
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
UNCERTAIN.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
REST OF TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES, CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
HIGHS AGAIN WARM INTO THE 80S. WHILE FLOW IS WEAK, A MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MU
CAPE VALUES HOVER AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD YIELD A FEW INTENSE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, WITH
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES, SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO THE NORTH.
THIS ALL OF COURSE WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THAT SAID, THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS
MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT DECENT RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE NOSING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE OVER
OUR CWA. THE 00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 1.40INCHES. OUR
PWATS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
/22/
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION. THE RESULTING INCREASED WARMTH AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. WHILE FLOW FROM
THE SOUTH IS WEAK, CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SOME
HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.
THE BETTER, MORE WIDESPREAD, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOK TO COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. WHILE NEITHER OF THESE DAYS LOOK
TO BE COMPLETE WASHOUTS AT THE MOMENT, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXIST AT THESE TIMES DUE TO IT BEING MORE DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT PRESENT, THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE HEADWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER OVER THE
WEEKEND, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA. IF THAT SCENARIO
VERIFIES, NOT ONLY WILL IT RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA, IT'LL ALSO BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
/OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL 17Z. IFR CIGS ARE BRIEFLY PSBL
IN THE SOUTH 12-14Z. OTHERWISE, MVFR WL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 17Z.
BY 17Z A GUSTY 17-20KTS SOUTH WIND WILL DEVELOP WEST AND CNTRL
BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 23Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
PSBL THIS MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
ACROSS SOUTH MS. AFTER 09Z WED MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY
LOWER TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 64 84 65 / 60 10 50 0
MERIDIAN 82 62 83 62 / 50 10 70 0
VICKSBURG 85 65 86 66 / 40 10 20 0
HATTIESBURG 83 65 83 64 / 70 10 70 0
NATCHEZ 85 65 86 67 / 40 10 40 0
GREENVILLE 85 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 84 65 86 67 / 30 10 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page