457
FXUS64 KJAN 250824
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
(NO) WEATHER HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST US EXTENDS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE GULF COAST.
THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY WEATHER REGIME WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS LONGER
DEPENDING ON WHICH LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE VERIFIES.
HAVE EXTENDED THE "ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC ACCORDINGLY AS
LOW HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE STRESSED AND DRIED
OUT VEGETATION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON. THE RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY AND MONDAY, AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE,
THROUGH AT THURSDAY.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GENERAL IDEA IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR AT
LEAST SOME MOIST RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES. THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AT THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST TIME FRAME, SO WOULD FOLLOW
SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS WITH CAUTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN DAY/NIGHT MAY PUSH 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AROUND 3 KNOTS. THESE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING, WHILE BECOMING MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC/19
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