677
FXUS64 KJAN 091850
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
150 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CWA
(SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-55, IN GENERAL)
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE/STRONG STORMS IS POSSIBLE NEXT
MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TODAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX SWINGS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE TIMING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A PEAK IN
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM WITH STORMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER THAT TIME WITH THE RISK BECOMING LOW WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS TODAY CONSIST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT/ASCENT COUPLED WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AROUND
THE AREA INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
INHIBIT WARMING TO SOME DEGREE TODAY BUT WARM SOUTHERLIES AND
FILTERED SUNLIGHT SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S F FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82. ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
FOR AREAS (MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82) THAT RECEIVE THE
EARLIEST SHOWERS OR STORMS--TEMPERATURES COULD BE HELD IN CHECK A
BIT MORE. SOUTHERLIES ARE ALSO TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND THE RELATIVELY LIMITED SUNLIGHT/MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WITHOUT MIXING OUT AS EASILY, WHICH WILL
COMPENSATE FOR THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WE MIGHT SEE
OTHERWISE.
THE NET RESULT IS SB/MUCAPE VALUES THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE 1500-
2000 J/KG RANGE AND SHOULD THE NEAR-70 F DEWPOINT VALUES PROGGED BY
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR VERIFY INTO MORE OF OUR AREA, INSTABILITY
VALUES COULD REACH INTO THE 2500-2750 J/KG RANGE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
IN TERMS OF SHEAR, LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
850 MB SHOW MODERATE CLOCKWISE TURNING WITH HEIGHT BUT LACK
SUBSTANTIAL SPEEDS RESULTING IN LIMITED LOW LEVEL HELICITY. DEEP
LAYER, EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL HOWEVER BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH 50-55 KT OF BULK SHEAR LIKELY. LONG HODOGRAPHS RESULT WITH
STORM MOTIONS LIKELY SOUTH OF DUE EAST WITHIN THE STRONGEST SHEAR
CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ISOLATED/DISCRETE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR (GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-
20), WILL INITIALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL GENERALLY TURN MORE
EAST AS THEY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADO
CHANCE IS LOW THIS AFTERNOON, IF WE WERE TO SEE A STORM DISPLAY A
PERIOD OF BRIEFLY STRONGER ROTATION/ORGANIZATION, IT MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WHERE THESE TWO STORM MODE/MOTION REGIMES INTERSECT AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVE INTO AND MERGE WITH THE
STORMS FURTHER NORTH THAT EXHIBIT THE EXPECTED PREVAILING NW TO SE
STORM MOTIONS. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE STORM ELEMENTS AND THE
BOUNDARIES THEY GENERATE WILL BE PRIMARY TARGETS OF INTEREST FOR
SUDDEN, LIKELY BRIEF, SPIN-UPS.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH SIZES THAT COULD REACH GOLFBALLS. STORMS OF THIS
INTENSITY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMMON BUT COULD HAVE SOME
LONGEVITY IF THEY DEVELOP AMID THE SUPPORTIVE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO LIKELY TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH. TORNADOES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LIKELY AND IF THEY DO
OCCUR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY LONG LIVED NOR STRONG.
HOWEVER, WITH AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND WITH LOW
LEVEL (0-1KM) HELICITY AROUND ~100 M^2/S^2, IT WILL BE SOMETHING
WORTH MONITORING.
AS SUCH, A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES AT THIS TIME; WITH SUBSEQUENT WATCH(ES) FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED INTO THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COUPLE OF CELLS TO OUR NORTH HAVE ALREADY
TRIGGERED SEVERE TS WARNING(S) WHILE THE BULK OF STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY, CURRENT CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
RISK SO THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MOVING FORWARD.
TOMORROW...
AS TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS, THERE WILL BE NO SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE WAKE
OF TODAY'S STORMS. RATHER, WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST: A MORE POTENT TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SAVE FOR
ISOLATED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BENIGN
AND MOSTLY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ANOTHER LINE OF
HEAVY/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THOUGH DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL ALSO BE LARGELY
BOUNDARY PARALLEL, WHICH OFTEN DOESN'T YIELD THE MOST EFFICIENT
SEVERE WIND PRODUCING STORMS. ONE CAVEAT IS ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TAP INTO THE MORE ROBUST
REGIME. STILL, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASED UPPER FLOW WILL
PRESENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE TORNADOES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, THE IMPACT OF A VERY SOUTHWARD TRACK OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SOUTH MS SHOULD TEND TO NOT FAVOR
A LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES. AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE A WELCOME
SIGHT FOR THE BULK OF OUR AREA THAT IS EXPERIENCING LONG TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY, THOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING
TO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW KICKS BACK IN BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME, WITH A
RETURNING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SUSTAINED COOL OFF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
30S BACK IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, AND THUS, A LOWER CONFIDENCE POSSIBILITY.
NEXT MONDAY...
ANOTHER BOUT OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE OVERALL SETUP LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP TROUGH THAT IS DYNAMICALLY
SUPPORTED WILL SWING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE MAIN
POINT OF DIVERGENCE AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS A MATTER
OF TIMING NOT SO MUCH INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH IF THE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH DURING MAX HEATING, THAT COULD OF COURSE CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BE DIURNALLY STRENGTHENED. THIS FAR OUT ITS DIFFICULT TO
PIN DOWN TIMING, GIVEN THE LIMITED GUIDANCE THAT PROJECTS OUT TO
168 HOURS. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMS
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH: HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO TOP OUT IN
THE 60S F AND THE LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
LOW 40S F./86/OAJ/DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 10/00Z TUESDAY. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 50MPH AND LOWERED VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ROBUST CONVECTION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT
MOST TAF SITES BY 10/05Z TUESDAY AND THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR BY
10/08-10Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR STRATUS AFTER 10/14-15Z.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE,
GUSTY UP TO 20MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE LIGHT TONIGHT.
/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 66 83 67 / 70 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 82 65 84 65 / 70 30 10 0
VICKSBURG 82 66 83 67 / 70 30 10 0
HATTIESBURG 83 68 87 67 / 60 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 82 66 84 67 / 70 20 10 0
GREENVILLE 77 66 80 67 / 90 40 10 10
GREENWOOD 80 66 83 67 / 90 40 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/DC
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