686
FXUS64 KJAN 191827
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED
SOME WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE LIMITED SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE
SHEAR/BOUNDARY RELATIONSHIP IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR GETTING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DURING PEAK AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THEN THOSE STORMS COULD MOVE IN MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, WE'VE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AND
TRIMMED BACK THE MARGINAL RISK AREA SOME BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION OF WET WEATHER IS
SETTING UP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
TROUGH TO RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. IN THE
BIG PICTURE, THIS WILL BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND HELP INITIATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH, WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREAS WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST THE LONGEST.
SLU CIPS ANALOGS REVEAL SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ANALOGS FROM THE
HISTORIC ARCHIVES THAT SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE
BASED ON OUR CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS, BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW TO PROVIDE FORMAL MESSAGING. KEEP IN MIND THAT
WITH EACH DAY THAT ACCUMULATES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE,
IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AS OF 1729Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS TO START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 06Z. AFTER 06Z, SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SITES RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. SOUTH TAF SITES
WILL SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR BY 09Z. POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH 14Z. AFTER
14Z, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS SOUTH TAF
SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z, CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 86 69 86 / 60 70 50 70
MERIDIAN 70 88 68 88 / 20 30 30 40
VICKSBURG 71 85 69 84 / 70 70 70 80
HATTIESBURG 70 89 68 88 / 10 40 20 50
NATCHEZ 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 60 80
GREENVILLE 71 84 68 83 / 80 80 70 80
GREENWOOD 71 85 69 84 / 70 80 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR
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