051
FXUS64 KJAN 181946
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FLOODING IMPACTS MAY LINGER.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA AGAIN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY: THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINFALL HAS
LESSENED THIS AFTERNOON AND A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR WERE NOTED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING EAST
INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE REMNANTS WILL ACCELERATE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT LEAVING OUR CWA IN A WARM MOIST AIRMASS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT THERE WILL REMAIN LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS HELPS DEVELOP AN MCS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MAY STALL ACROSS THE REGION. PROVIDED THE
MCS DEVELOPS AS ANTICIPATED AND MOVES INTO OUR CWA ALONG WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF A COUPLE INCHES IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME. CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS INCLUDING RIVER
FLOODING, WL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SAME AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /22/
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY WASHES OUT THIS WEEKEND. AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY SLIM,
BUT PWAT, WHILE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WILL BE
MORE SEASONAL (1.5-1.7). THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME "BREAK" FROM THE
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT
INCREASED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK MAY
MEAN THAT RELIEF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ON THE WAY.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE IS POTENTIAL TO TRANSITION
TOWARDS A NW FLOW REGIME AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SW CONUS.
RIGHT NOW IN THE GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
STALLED BOUNDARY TO BE IN PLACE, WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE
RIDGE. ALL THE WHILE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS COULD SET UP THE AREA FOR ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER,
LIKELY MCS SCENARIO. OF COURSE, MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SITES MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTN BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OCCASIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA
WL BRING LOWER CONDITIONS THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN
AGAIN BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FRIDAY. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 87 73 88 / 50 80 80 80
MERIDIAN 73 86 72 87 / 60 80 70 90
VICKSBURG 75 88 74 88 / 40 80 60 70
HATTIESBURG 77 90 75 89 / 50 70 80 90
NATCHEZ 77 91 75 90 / 30 60 70 60
GREENVILLE 75 87 73 86 / 50 70 70 80
GREENWOOD 74 88 72 87 / 40 70 70 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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