576
FXUS64 KJAN 240546 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. A PERSISTENCE APPROACH ALSO SUGGESTS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR ADVECTION FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
AREA, AND HREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THIS. ALONG WITH ADDING FOG
TO THE FORECAST, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
IN THIS AREA. NO OTHER NOTEWORTHY CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ARKLAMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS WE WILL GO INTO A MUCH
NEEDED WET PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A SHORT WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS AND DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM AND MU CAPES OF 1000-2000 K/G, THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY RISK. THE TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE TOUGH BECAUSE
HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, BUT THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR SEVERE LOOKS LIKE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE WILL
BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY AND THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A SEVERE GRAPHIC HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL,
WITH THE PRIMARY RISK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTS WAVES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY./15/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER 08Z IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SE. AFTER 11Z MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP NORTH AND CNTRL. THESE LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE
UNTIL AFTER 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE DURING THE AFTN BUT BY 23Z TSRA WL BE PSBL IN THE NW.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WL SPREAD TO THE SE THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 82 65 83 / 60 70 30 30
MERIDIAN 62 81 62 83 / 60 80 20 30
VICKSBURG 65 83 66 86 / 70 50 30 30
HATTIESBURG 65 86 65 86 / 40 80 20 30
NATCHEZ 65 86 66 87 / 50 50 20 30
GREENVILLE 65 81 66 82 / 90 40 40 40
GREENWOOD 64 81 65 82 / 90 50 30 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/15/22
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