748
FXUS64 KJAN 231935
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE BY EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A >1038MB HIGH RIDGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR CWA UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE. THE
GUSTY WIND COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS OUR SOUTH WITH ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS
TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AREAWIDE. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY, RETURN FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
LOWER AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT WILL RAISE FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS AGAIN. THE WIND WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY THAN
TODAY BUT BY AFTERNOON A GUSTY WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHILE
IN OUR EAST FIRE DANGER WILL BE MORE LIMITED. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT INTO
THE ARKLAMISS REGION, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THURSDAY WITH 50-85% POP CHANCES AREAWIDE. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED; HOWEVER AN ORGANIZED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUBSIDE BY 01Z TUE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 25 60 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 23 57 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 27 61 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 28 62 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 28 62 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 27 57 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 58 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ059>066-
072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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