845
FXUS64 KJAN 131508
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND
WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THIS MORNING SHOWS A >1024MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
EAST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK LOOK AT GOES
16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW LOW TO MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
LATER BY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
CLEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA. A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE WILL SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAK INTO THE UPPER 60S. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY UNTIL THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1024MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
LIGHT RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
CLOSED LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED
OVER OLD MEXICO BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOSE LOW MAY SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN MOST ZONES OF OUR CWA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY AND
MORNING LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING. /22/
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE.
GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILE AND STORM MODE, DAMAGING WIND SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND LINE SURGES. THE MAIN FAILURE MODES LIE IN THE
SUPPRESSED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
PRETTY FAR SOUTH, OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR AREA. THIS LEADS TO A
SUPPRESSED WARM SECTOR AND QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RECOVERY. AREA OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-55 WHICH IS
THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. ASIDE FROM STORMS,
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS, AROUND 25MPH. SOME HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, HOWEVER THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT FLOOD RISK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, WEATHER WILL BE QUIET UNDER REINFORCED
RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S, EVEN LOW 80S BY LATE WEEK AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
BY NEXT WEEKEND./SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
IFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z BEFORE IMPROVING. BY 16Z VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 54 74 60 / 0 0 10 100
MERIDIAN 72 48 75 58 / 0 0 10 90
VICKSBURG 74 55 75 59 / 0 10 20 100
HATTIESBURG 76 52 77 60 / 0 0 20 90
NATCHEZ 77 57 75 60 / 0 0 20 100
GREENVILLE 69 53 73 59 / 0 10 40 100
GREENWOOD 70 52 75 60 / 0 10 30 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS/22
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