970
FXUS64 KJAN 170611 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK (THURSDAY)...
THIS WEEKEND (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND MEAN
TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO MID TO LATE SUNDAY. WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
(THERMAL PROFILES AT 850MB IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND PWS
CLIMBING TO 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES), AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND
SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY, SOME 4F TO 8F ABOVE (LOWS: 58F TO 62F TO THE EAST OF I-55
WHILE 63F TO 68F TO THE WEST; HIGHS: 85F TO 90F). RETURN FLOW OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. HREF AND REFS INDICATE SOME LOW DENSE FOG PROBS (10 TO
30 PERCENT) IN EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MS. WILL HOLD OFF
INTRODUCTION IN HWO FOR NOW.
LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS WILL BE SUFFICIENT (7.5 TO 8 DEG
C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES; 25C TO 29C VERTICAL TOTALS). THERE IS
SOME WEAK DEEP SHEAR (25 TO 30KTS) THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN SOUTHWEST MS INTO NORTHEAST LA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
EVENING.
THIS WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): COLD CORE LOW, DEVELOPING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS, WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CANADA AND HUDSON BAY REGION. PERSISTENT SEASONABLE
WARMTH (4F TO 8F ABOVE AND HIGHS IN 86F TO 91F) AND MOISTURE (1.5
TO 2 INCHES) WILL BE THE NORM. SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR
THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (20 TO
45 PERCENT). INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL
TOTALS NEAR 27C TO 29C), SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT INTO EARLY TO MID WEEK. AS A STRONGER WAVE SWINGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN CANADA (995MB
TO 1000MB), FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF
STATES. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE,
INCREASING ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL DRIVE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS (45 TO 90 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
AND 65 TO 80 PERCENT ON THURSDAY). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE, WITH LOWS LESS SEASONABLE, FALLING FROM 8F TO 12F
ABOVE (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEST) TO 4F TO 8F ABOVE (MID TO UPPER
60S). WITH LESS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY AND LAPSE
RATES, SOME STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WHILE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN TOTALS FOR THE
WEEK WILL BE AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES (1 TO 3 INCHES), WHICH
WILL HELP LESSEN SOME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONCERNS. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG OR MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA, RIGHT AROUD HBG. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 69 88 72 / 30 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 87 65 88 69 / 0 0 20 0
VICKSBURG 87 71 89 72 / 30 10 20 10
HATTIESBURG 86 67 88 70 / 10 0 30 0
NATCHEZ 87 72 89 73 / 50 20 20 10
GREENVILLE 90 72 90 73 / 20 10 10 20
GREENWOOD 89 71 89 73 / 0 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/DL/OAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page