928
FXUS64 KJAN 091155 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT IMPACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM OUR FORECAST THINKING THE PAST FEW DAYS
CONCERNING THIS WEEK'S WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON FORECAST AREA WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEK
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STORMIER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR THE NEAR TERM, INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
STRATUS/FOG, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THEN OVER MORE OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE WEEK, A
COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION DURING THE MID/LATE WEEK, AND THESE WILL BRING
LIGHT RAINFALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
MORE GUIDANCE SHOWING CONSENSUS FOR A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT AT THIS POINT
CONCERNS WARM SECTOR STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY, BUT SIGNS ARE
POINTING MORE TO A ROUND OF STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING
THE AREA. NO FORMAL MESSAGING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS PLANNED AT
THE MOMENT WITH GUIDANCE PROBS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR FLASH
FLOODING RISK STILL VERY LOW. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT; ELSEWHERE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 17Z, BRINGING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 8 KTS ARE EXPECTED. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 54 75 58 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 74 51 74 57 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 73 56 74 57 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 76 52 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 55 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 73 56 73 54 / 0 0 0 30
GREENWOOD 74 56 74 56 / 0 0 0 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page