515
FXUS64 KJAN 201120 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- FIRE DANGER IS INCREASING FOR TUESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THAT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS SUBSIDENT,
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN FIRE DANGER TUESDAY
DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DURING
PEAK HEATING AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
MESSAGED THIS FORMALLY IN THE HWO GRAPHICS. WE'LL BE MONITORING
FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER THREATS IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. /EC/
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND:
OUR NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR DROUGHT AFFECTING RAINS COMES FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE THE WESTERN CONUS INTERACTS
AND MERGES WITH A LONG WAVE POLAR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN US AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MERGED/PHASED
TROUGH THAT IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES. OUR AREA WILL, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE NUMEROUS
TIMES RECENTLY, BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF TROUGH INFLUENCE. THIS
COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO ATTEMPT TO PERSIST/DEVELOP
EASTWARD ENOUGH TO YIELD LOCAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN COULD LINGER FOR A FEW
DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE FOR MOST
AREAS. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WERE IT TO COME
TO FRUITION BUT, AS WE'VE SEEN, WHEN A DROUGHT PATTERN BECOMES
ENTRENCHED, A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM IS WARRANTED WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO PROPOSE CHANGES. THE GUIDANCE THAT HAS
ATTEMPTED TO DO THIS OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO HAVE OF COURSE
PROVEN INCORRECT. /86/
PER RECENT SPC AND NCAR/AI GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A LOW END
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INDICATED IN OUR REGION DURING THE
FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING/PLACEMENT DETAILS ARE STILL TOO
SHAKY AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IN OUR GRAPHICS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
12Z FORECAST PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 50 80 59 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 78 49 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 78 50 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 79 49 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 78 52 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 78 53 80 60 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 79 52 81 59 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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