150
FXUS64 KJAN 230846 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- TROPICAL BERTHA IS FORECAST TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS IMPACTS IN OUR AREA BEING VERY
LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF RIDGING ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL ALLOW
FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND THE "LIMITED" RISK WAS EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH. LIKEWISE,
THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WAS REMOVED.
REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES, THE SLOWLY MEANDERING TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA REMAINS JUST OFF OF THE GULF COAST AND CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST
TOWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DECENT RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 30-55%) ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY COULD HAVE AN AFFECT ON HOW HIGH OUR
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD GET.
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT VALUES REMAINING AROUND 105 TO 110
DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL LIKELY PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT STRESS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER.
HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE BY NEXT THURSDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD, IMPROVING TO PREVAILING VFR BY
AROUND 15Z-18Z. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 75 95 75 / 40 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 93 75 95 74 / 50 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 94 76 94 76 / 40 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 93 75 97 75 / 30 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 94 75 96 74 / 40 20 10 0
GREENVILLE 93 76 94 76 / 30 30 20 10
GREENWOOD 94 75 94 75 / 60 50 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/NF
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