255
FXUS64 KJAN 221130
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A STORM COMPLEX MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 513 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION TODAY HAS TRIGGERED AN EXPANSIVE MCS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND AN AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR WILL SEE IT
USHERED EAST THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH, BUT A PORTION OF THE MCS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH THE DAYTIME AND SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LINE MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION
INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND IT'S THESE STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT. WEST-TO-EAST
FLOW ALONG A BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS, AND SOME FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL MAINTAIN AN "ELEVATED"
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH "LIMITED" IMPACTS SOUTH TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE AREA. WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
MOVING IN, HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT STRETCHED OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS PATTERN. EXPECT HEAT, MARGINALLY SEVERE, AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THREATS TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY. THE CORE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT FRIDAY MAY BE THE FIRST DAY IN WHILE WITHOUT ANY MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES. DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SETTLE OVER THE
AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z NEAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SITE, BRINGING REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 20Z MONDAY. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 75 89 73 / 30 50 50 30
MERIDIAN 91 74 88 72 / 30 50 50 20
VICKSBURG 91 75 90 74 / 30 40 30 20
HATTIESBURG 93 76 92 74 / 0 10 30 30
NATCHEZ 92 76 92 75 / 10 10 20 20
GREENVILLE 89 72 86 72 / 80 70 70 40
GREENWOOD 89 72 87 72 / 80 70 60 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/SW
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