262
FXUS64 KJAN 232032
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PEAK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
NEAR TERM: REGIONAL RADARS REMAIN LIT UP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
DELTA REGION TO THE PINE BELT AS A LINE OF STORMS WAS LIFTING TO THE
NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE OF THE LAST HOUR, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LINE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE LINE
WAS MOVING, MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING. /22/
CONCERNING FLOODING THREATS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT
SOME POINT DUE TO BOTH FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SOAKED GROUNDS,
AND ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE THE PRIMARY FF THREAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THUS FAR IT HAS
BEEN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THE MCV COMMAHEAD IS HAVING MORE
INFLUENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CELL MERGERS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM AS WE
GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A RECENT TREND IN THE
NEAR TERM SCENARIO HAS BEEN FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE
INTERCEPTED BY COASTAL CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV, AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT FLOOD THREATS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TIME FOR THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSES OFF AND PARKS OVER EASTERN TEXAS. AS THIS
HAPPENS, WE'LL SEE PERSISTENT AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT, BUT THERE WILL
BE UNKNOWNS IN THE MESOSCALE THAT ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE MORE
FOCUSED AREAS OF TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION MAY SET UP. THE BEST GUESS
IS THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR,
BUT DETERMINING GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AS WELL, WITH WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED GREATER RAINFALL TO THIS POINT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE THE AREA OF THE ELEVATED THREAT AREA WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT SOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA AS WELL IN THE HWO GRAPHICS.
GOING BEYOND MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE WESTERN LONGWAVE CONUS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY RESET THE
PATTERN, AND THIS PROMISES TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THREATS
AS WE GO INTO MID/LATE WEEK. THIS OF COURSE COULD BE A GREATER
CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FALLS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A LINE OF TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN. ADDITIONAL TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE NW AND
WL AFFECT GLH BEFORE THE MAIN LINES ARRIVES. AWAY FROM TSRA VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 08Z.
AFTER 08Z MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z. CONDITIONS
WL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 81 68 80 / 60 80 90 90
MERIDIAN 67 83 68 80 / 60 80 70 90
VICKSBURG 68 79 68 80 / 50 70 70 90
HATTIESBURG 69 82 69 80 / 50 90 80 100
NATCHEZ 68 78 68 81 / 70 80 70 80
GREENVILLE 68 80 67 79 / 60 50 80 80
GREENWOOD 67 81 68 80 / 60 60 70 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/
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