671
FXUS64 KJAN 230819
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
CURRENT EARLY MORNING RADAR SCANS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA MOVING INTO MS FROM THE WEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LINGERING MOIST
CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. PWAT VALUES UP TO 2.0
INCHES IN THE REGION ARE NEAR MAX VALUES FOR LATE MAY, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES FOR THE DAYS AHEAD. SPC ENSEMBLE VIEWER
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG QPF SIGNAL ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED PRIMARILY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. LIKEWISE, THE "LIMITED" FLASH FLOODING THREAT
MESSAGING WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55.
THE FORECAST MESSAGING REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO RIDGE
LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO HELP
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTERACTING WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. AN "ELEVATED"
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
RIDGE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WITH THAT IN MIND, A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHRA AND TSRA IMPACTING PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD, AND ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z SATURDAY AND ONWARD, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN IMPACTS TO ANY TAF SITE WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
MOISTURE IN THE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND BR
TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR THROUGH 15Z TODAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 69 81 69 / 70 70 90 80
MERIDIAN 86 68 83 68 / 70 40 80 80
VICKSBURG 86 69 80 68 / 70 80 90 80
HATTIESBURG 86 70 82 70 / 70 40 90 70
NATCHEZ 86 69 80 69 / 60 50 100 80
GREENVILLE 84 68 81 68 / 50 60 80 80
GREENWOOD 85 68 83 68 / 50 60 90 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/NF
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