243
FXUS64 KJAN 061143 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
643 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND COOL PLEASANT
LOWS WILL EXIST DURING THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80%) OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD BUT THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A >1020MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CONTINUE TO
RIDGE BACK ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. TOGETHER THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER BUT ALSO CONTINUED WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /22/
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN GULF (I.E. INVEST 92L). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
LATER THIS WEEK, WITH NHC HOLDING AT AN 80% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
WPC HAS ADDED AN FOR "SLIGHT" RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CWA ASSOCIATED WITH FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AS A
RESULT, AN AREAWIDE "LIMITED" FLOODING HWO GRAPHIC WILL BE ISSUED
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL
TOTALS AND IMPACTS THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE GULF COAST
OR OUR FORECAST AREA. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE REGION SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM 30-50% OVER THE WEEKEND. /19//SW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MEI-PIB-HBG WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL
UNTIL 15Z, VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 89 64 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 87 61 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 90 63 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 87 65 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 89 65 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 88 62 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 90 61 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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