742
FXUS64 KJAN 271134 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONTINUED DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND
SEASONAL LOWS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
STILL HAD A >1024M HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND ESSENTIALLY KEEP THE GULF CLOSED. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
590DAM RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE RESULTING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WILL BRING A
FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NO RAIN. THE FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DUE LITTLE TO LIMIT HEATING AS WL TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN ON MONDAY. THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
OUR DRY AIRMASS TO RESULT IN CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT WL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
THE CONTINUED RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MITIGATE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...QUIET WEATHER, DRY CONDITIONS, WITH
COOL PLEASANT MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THESE MUCH NEEDED RAIN
CHANCES, NEITHER SATURDAY NOR SUNDAY WILL BE COMPLETE WASHOUTS NOR
WILL IT BREAK THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE LUCKY ENOUGH TO RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND, IT'LL BE QUITE WELCOMED AND APPRECIATED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE EXISTS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF
IT, A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT COOLING
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 53 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 82 47 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 83 55 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 81 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/22
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