673
FXUS64 KJAN 251930
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LOCAL RADARS WERE LIT UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR CWA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK
MCVS. THE FIRST MCV NOW OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MOVED UP FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS ENDED ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SECOND MCV MOVING
NORTH OVER FOREST COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THAT WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY EVENTHOUGH THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
OUR CWA. THE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLOODING GRAPHIC WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS PROJECTED ARE NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. A FEW OF OUR RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE IN OUR SOUTHEAST
SO A FEW MORE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.
/22/
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GENERALLY SPEAKING, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AND WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST TRAJECTORIES THAT SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AREAWIDE LIMITED FLASH FLOOD. THE
GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPDATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND FURTHER EXTENSIONS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR AS LONG AS THE PATTERN PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY BE MESOSCALE FEATURES DAY-TO-DAY, SUCH AS MCVS, THAT COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THREAT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREATS DAY-TO-DAY MAY ALSO
PERSIST AS THESE MCVS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS AND WEAK
TORNADOES. THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1.5-2.0 INCH
PWAT DOES NOT MODIFY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY AND WE DON'T LOOK TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL BEYOND
THE PERIOD. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
RADARS WERE SHOWING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE WEST WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL THIS AFTN. THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z TUE AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THEN LOWER TO IFR BY 11Z. THE IFR CIGS WL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16Z BUT MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 83 70 85 / 30 60 30 90
MERIDIAN 68 81 69 86 / 50 80 30 90
VICKSBURG 67 84 70 86 / 40 60 30 80
HATTIESBURG 69 82 70 85 / 40 90 30 80
NATCHEZ 68 85 71 86 / 40 60 40 90
GREENVILLE 67 84 69 85 / 30 60 30 70
GREENWOOD 67 84 70 86 / 20 50 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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