397
FXUS64 KJAN 091125 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
525 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.
- MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, AND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD POLAR AIRMASS HAS REACHED SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA ENTIRELY AS WE NEAR DAYBREAK. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG MIXING
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. THE TRUE
COLD AIR WILL BE DELAYED IN ARRIVING SO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. COLD
ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
STEADILY TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BASED ON SLIGHTLY COLD NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS, HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH, BUT THE LONGEST FREEZE DURATION AND MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BY FAR, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MESSAGE FOR THIS ACCORDINGLY.
GIVEN THE EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE,
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WIND. DRY WEATHER WITH A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS THE CONSENSUS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
GOING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE AREA AS WE FINISH UP NEXT WEEKEND. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH LOW
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH/EAST MS,
THESE SHOULD MIX OUT BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THROUGH THE DAY,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS AT TIMES.
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING LATE
TONIGHT. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 32 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 65 32 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 33 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 70 34 51 25 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 33 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 31 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 57 29 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>052.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025>066-072>074.
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-
075.
EC/DL
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