427
FXUS64 KJAN 231158 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RIDGING ALOFT THAT IS OVER OUR REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE EAST WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SEE A DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK:
AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN WILL PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BREAK DOWN
OF THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS KEPT DRIER AIR LOCKED OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MAINTENANCE OF MOIST
AIRMASS WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NOW IS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM POISED TO
GROW UPSCALE AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY. ANALYSIS OF
AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SEVERE
THREAT EXISTS ROUGHLY ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR, AS HERE IS WHERE
SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLY ALIGNED RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION AND
ORIENTATION. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST, SHEAR IS MORE LINE PARALLEL,
THUS THE COLD POOL IS MORE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THERMAL AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT COLD POOL MAINTENANCE, SO EVEN THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE BE MONITORED. THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY. CAM SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORTED
CONVECTION BECOMING ELEVATED SOUTH OF I-20 AMID WANING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN THIS, I-20 SEEMS LIKE A FAIR
CUTOFF FOR SEVERE THREAT.
FOLLOWING STORMS FRIDAY, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG CAM GUIDANCE
THE ENVIRONMENT WONT RECOVER IN TIME TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION
SATURDAY, WHICH CONCEPTUALLY MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS. HAVE OPTED TO CAP POP ON
SATURDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT RECOVERS BY SUNDAY AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS THE JET REMAINS DISPLACED
NORTH. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONGER FLOW WITH A SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC FOR THIS, BUT
LOCALLY WILL FOCUS ON FRIDAY THREAT FIRST.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE COULD SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
LATER NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL IN THE SE UNTIL IMPROVING AFTER
13Z. THIS AFTN VCSH WILL BE PSBL AT HEZ. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 62 84 65 / 10 0 50 80
MERIDIAN 84 59 84 63 / 0 0 40 70
VICKSBURG 85 63 86 65 / 20 0 50 70
HATTIESBURG 84 61 84 64 / 10 0 40 40
NATCHEZ 84 64 85 65 / 30 10 50 50
GREENVILLE 85 65 83 65 / 10 0 70 90
GREENWOOD 85 64 84 65 / 10 0 60 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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