304  
FXUS64 KJAN 230558  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1158 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR  
CEILINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL  
PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
WIDESPREAD RA AND AN ABRUPT SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO  
WESTERLY DIRECTION. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM  
PUSHES EAST WED EVENING. /EC/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A CLOUDY AND BREEZY EVENING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN, WITH THE  
00Z OBSERVED PW AT JAN UP TO 0.77" FROM 0.45" AT 12Z. A NORTH-  
SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS AIDED BY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND  
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS ORGANIZED OVER EAST MS. TO THE WEST,  
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD  
FRONT HAVE MANIFESTED A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS FROM EAST TX  
THROUGH AR INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A  
SIMILAR REGIME WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST MS CONVERGENT  
BAND AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS THE  
FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THAT REGION. IN BETWEEN ACROSS  
CENTRAL MS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.  
FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED TO REPRESENT THIS THINKING. NO  
OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE ON TAP. /DL/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING, WIND GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD EASE UP AFTER DARK.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS THE ATMOSPHERE  
SATURATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE CHANCES FOR  
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHEAST MS, WHERE  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT  
PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG  
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AND A MARKED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AREAS THROUGH THE PINE  
BELT IN SOUTHEAST MS SHOULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS  
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD, SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN. WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES AND  
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, SO EXPECT  
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE A MORNING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH COOLING  
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.  
 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CHANCE FOR STRATIFORM RAIN WILL LINGER  
BEFORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS WORKS IN. WHILE SOME  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP  
COMES TO AN END, THE MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE  
FREEZING DO NOT LEND TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR MENTIONABLE WINTRY  
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. IF MOISTURE ENDS UP REMAINING DEEP ENOUGH,  
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR SLEET TO MIX IN  
WITH THE RAIN AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY WANES AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES.  
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA, LOW TEMPERATURES  
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. /NF/  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PHASED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH BROAD  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL BUCKLE A BIT  
MOVING INTO LATE WEEK AS TROUGHINESS INCREASES OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD BASE OF BROAD SCALE  
TROUGH, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THIS ENERGY ENCOUNTERS  
THE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
BREAKING OUT OVER THE UPPER TX COAST INTO LA SATURDAY. THOUGH MASS  
FIELDS ARE STILL IN ALIGNMENT MOVING FORWARD, PRECIPITATION  
SCENARIOS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW  
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS THE WEDGE OF COOL, RELATIVELY DRY AIR  
ANCHORED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF, BUT  
THE CANADIAN SEES ENOUGH MOISTURE/ASCENT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
ALONG A WEAK SHALLOW COLD FRONT IT DROPS THROUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO  
BE SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS IN  
A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO WILL CONTINUE  
THIS TREND AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST./26/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 58 60 30 49 / 27 100 28 1  
MERIDIAN 55 62 30 50 / 85 100 62 1  
VICKSBURG 54 57 30 50 / 47 100 10 1  
HATTIESBURG 57 65 33 52 / 78 100 54 0  
NATCHEZ 55 60 30 51 / 33 100 10 1  
GREENVILLE 48 51 30 49 / 91 100 6 1  
GREENWOOD 54 57 28 47 / 33 100 15 1  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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