806
FXUS64 KJAN 021929
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.
- HEAT STRESS BEGINS BUILDING BACK MID AND LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THROUGH MONDAY: CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY BUT,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER OUR REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS BACK OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT, CONTINUE TO RIDGE
SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. OUR PWAT GOT KNOCKED DOWN BELOW AN INCH AND A
QUARTER AND WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY
OUR AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY. THIS WILL HELP MITIGATE ANY HEAT
STRESS CONCERNS DUE TO THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/22/
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: OVERALL, THE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOSTLY UNIMPACTFUL GIVEN THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LULL IN THE HEAT DANGER, AND LESS THAN THE
USUAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TUE-WED, AND NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BEHIND IT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRIER
THAN WE'VE OBSERVED RECENTLY, THUS KEEPING HEAT DANGER AT MORE
TOLERABLE LEVELS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BERMUDA HIGH TO
EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK, AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT REBUILDING OVER OUR AREA. SOME POSITIVES TO
TAKE AWAY IN THE UPCOMING PATTERN ARE THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HAVE MORE OF AN ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. THIS MEANS THAT WHILE
THE DANGEROUS HEAT WILL RETURN, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTREME LEVELS EXPERIENCED RECENTLY (I.E., IT WILL BE MORE OF A
HEAT ADVISORY SCENARIO VS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING). OTHERWISE,
INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP LIMIT DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 91 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 69 89 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 91 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 67 91 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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