477
FXUS64 KJAN 071824
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2023
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF
THE AREA TODAY AND WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS CLOUDS INCREASE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S./15/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR THE MOST PART WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE
FORECAST. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE WEATHER GRIDS IN ORDER
TO MAP OUT THE TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO REACH OUR CWA
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US BEFORE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY THE TIME THIS
SHORTWAVE REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WESTERLY
RETURN FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1400 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME PARTS OF OUR CWA.
AFTER VIEWING SEVERAL ENSEMBLES AND COLLABORATING WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT, WE
HAVE DECIDED TO ADVERTISE A "SLIGHT" (2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60-
75 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER, A
COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. CURRENT HREF ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A
SOMEWHAT WEAK QPF SIGNAL IN REGARDS TO THE TOTAL RAINFALL FORECASTED
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, WE ARE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGH AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY PROLONG
MINOR RIVER FLOODING.
THESE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A FEW LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PINE BELT. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE OUR FORECAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING. ANOTHER
FREEZE MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING. RAIN CHANCES COULD SNEAK BACK INTO OUR CWA BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. /CRJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2023
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES AROUND THE ARE, MISSING MOST OF THE AVIATION
SITES. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SO THE CEILING
FORECAST MAY BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA, SO
RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE SOUTHERN SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FOG MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WASN'T
CONFIDENT WITH WINDS LIKELY TO STAY UP, SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 58 76 52 / 40 20 40 90
MERIDIAN 69 57 75 56 / 40 20 30 80
VICKSBURG 73 59 77 49 / 10 10 50 90
HATTIESBURG 71 60 75 59 / 50 20 50 80
NATCHEZ 74 60 77 50 / 20 10 50 90
GREENVILLE 70 57 73 48 / 10 10 70 90
GREENWOOD 68 58 73 51 / 20 10 50 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
07
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