882
FXUS64 KJAN 021723
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY, WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WITH RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
ESSENTIALLY STRAND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN NOSING
WEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HANG TOUGH AND THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN
PWATS CLOSE TO AN INCH AND A HALF ALTHOUGH GREATER MOISTURE WILL
POOL IN OUR WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING OF
THIS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN DECENT RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR
NORTHWEST WILL BE VERY LOW. /22/
FRIDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY STALLS OVER THE AREA AND LIKELY
BECOMES WASHED OUT. WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED, MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT
AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO REMAIN STUBBORN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY BE PUSHED BACK
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LAPSE RATES, WEAK SHEAR,
AND WEAK FORCING ALL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SEVERE, BUT AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A PRIMARY HAIL/WIND
THREAT. DEEP MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, AND
CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
IN THE WAKE, SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, UNTIL THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN WEAK MOISTURE RECOVERY SHOULD BRING
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
AS OF 1723Z, MULTIPLE TAF SITES ARE SHOWING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY 18-23KTS SOUTH
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 23Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
IN THE WEST. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 02Z FRIDAY AND
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. AFTER 06Z, SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL
SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. BY 10Z, MULTIPLE SITES WILL SEE A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 85 66 83 / 20 10 0 80
MERIDIAN 63 85 63 85 / 10 0 0 60
VICKSBURG 67 85 66 83 / 10 40 10 90
HATTIESBURG 65 85 66 85 / 10 10 0 60
NATCHEZ 68 85 67 84 / 10 50 10 90
GREENVILLE 68 85 68 80 / 20 30 30 90
GREENWOOD 67 87 67 82 / 20 20 20 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/CR
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