713
FXUS64 KJAN 150156 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GULF, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA (GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES). FRONTAL ZONE AND REMNANT COLD POOL ARE MOVING
INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR, WITH MOIST ASCENT/CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SPARKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION CURRENTLY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
INTO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS. THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY MEAN 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL LOCALLY
ORGANIZED STRONG STORM INTO THE EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL EVENING
SOUNDING/RAOBS AT 00Z INDICATE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION (2000
TO 3000 J/KG). RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
POTENTIAL MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE COMING LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREADING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INTO THE
DAY MONDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
(REASONABLE WORST CASE AROUND 1-2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS IN
SOUTHWEST MS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA). WITH CLOUDY
SKIES, RAIN AND HIGH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/REMNANT
OUTFLOW, LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN, SOME 4F TO 8F ABOVE
(70F TO 73F ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHILE 74F TO 76F TO
THE SOUTH). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT AND RATHER
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY AND AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN JUNE IT WILL LIKELY MAKE ONLY SLUGGISH PROGRESS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM LAST EVENING'S
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE HELD DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER 100'SF. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ANTICIPATED. /22/86/
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (UPDATED)...
A SLOWLY SAGGING, NEARLY STALLED, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERAL SURGES OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WHICH COULD FALL LOCALLY IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WEAK WESTERLIES IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE FLOOD
THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINLY REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE WITH
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE WAVE WILL RATHER QUICKLY EJECT OUT
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE
FANFARE OUTSIDE OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AS WELL AS SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE IMPACTFUL, METEOROLOGICALLY UNUSUAL
SCENARIO. IN THE EURO CAMP, THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SLOWER TO EJECT
EASTWARD AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY, RAPIDLY
DEEPENS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF BAROCLINIC AND BAROTROPIC
PROCESSES. 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF GUIDANCE BROUGHT MINIMUM
SURFACE PRESSURES DOWN BELOW 990 MB. WHILE THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE (NOR THE 12Z), WHICH WOULD BE APPROACHING "TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY" WERE IT TO BE DEEMED SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE/SUFFICIENTLY WARM-CORE, IT IS STILL SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER
THAN THE REST OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE EURO IS RATHER
CLEAR IN IT'S INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE, THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, AND AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM WERE IT TO DEVELOP
WOULD HAVE FEATURES OF BOTH TROPICAL/NONTROPICAL SYSTEMS AND THE
12Z EURO IS EVEN CLEARER IN THAT EVOLUTION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WERE SOMETHING OF THIS STRONGER VARIETY TO OCCUR, SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND
STRETCHING WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO LA/TX. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
WITH LITTLE CROSS- MODEL SUPPORT AND THE RARITY OF A TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM TO MEANINGFULLY INTENSIFY WHILE INLAND, THIS PARTICULAR
SOLUTION IS NOT CONSIDERED THE MOST LIKELY, BUT WILL REQUIRE
CAUTIOUS ATTENTION. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS UNUSUALLY HIGH
UNCERTAINTY CASE PLAYS OUT, RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES EVEN IN THE WAKE
AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE REINFORCE THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS. LOOKING BEYOND DAY 6/7, THERE REMAINS LITTLE
INDICATION OF ANY DRIER PATTERNS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. /86/SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SOME SHRA AND TSRA ONGOING IN THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WILL BE
A CONCERN THROUGH AROUND 15/06Z MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF LULL, THEN
PICKING BACK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 15/08-09Z FROM SOUTHWEST NEAR
HEZ AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA
SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR SOME PERIOD OF THE DAY. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS (MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS) IS LIKELY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AROUND THIS TIME AS
WELL. ANY IFR STRATUS/CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING
AROUND 15/15-18Z, AS SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AREAS UNDER NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WHILE WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 80 70 81 / 90 100 80 90
MERIDIAN 73 81 69 80 / 70 100 80 90
VICKSBURG 73 80 70 82 / 90 100 80 80
HATTIESBURG 76 84 72 79 / 60 90 90 100
NATCHEZ 75 81 71 81 / 90 90 90 100
GREENVILLE 71 80 67 84 / 50 60 30 30
GREENWOOD 71 81 67 85 / 50 60 40 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/
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