454
FXUS64 KJAN 180539 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL NIGHTS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
TONIGHT...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE 1031MB SURFACE HIGH SITUATED
OVER KS INTO NORTHERN OK. LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND STRONG SPOKE OF
ENERGY ARE SWINGING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO WEST TX, WITH
INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA), HELPING THE TROUGH
AXIS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS BROAD ASCENT AND JET DYNAMICS IS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS, BUT ANY LOWER LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR ANY FLURRIES WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TO OUR SOUTHEAST. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO TX, NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COMBINED WITH CLEARING CLOUDINESS,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY COLD SUBFREEZING LOWS
(19F TO 29F). WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY, FROST IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OCCUPIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CONUS THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK. A SEQUENCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL STEER
REINFORCING ROUNDS OF COLDER SURFACE AIR SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GULF COAST. SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, AND THE COLDEST NIGHT MIGHT BE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A BROAD 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH OVERSPREADS OUR REGION. MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL WARM THINGS A LITTLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH,
BUT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE HELD TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT
RAIN FROM UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND ASCENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHIFT IN PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
DETAILS IN THE PATTERN AT THAT TIME FRAME ARE UNCERTAIN. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS (SUSTAINED AROUND 10MPH; GUSTS OF 15 TO 10MPH) WILL LIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 46 24 43 27 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 24 43 25 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 46 24 43 27 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 28 48 29 / 30 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 47 24 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 46 23 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 20 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DC
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