288
FXUS64 KJAN 010857
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
IN THE SHORT TERM, AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CUTTING ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AND FUEL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN EARLY MORNING MCS COMING OUT OF THE OZARKS
MAY GRAZE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MORNING MCS OR A RESIDUAL NW-SE ORIENTED
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY MCS DEVELOPING FROM THIS CONTINUED ACTIVITY
SHOULD FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF WIND SHEAR FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST, FAVORING EAST OR SOUTHEAST MOVING LINES. BUT AS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING, STORMS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AXIS
SHOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE 3000-4000
J/KG OF SBCAPE TODAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY
PRIMARILY ACCOUNTS FOR A WIND THREAT WITH ORGANIZED LINES, THOUGH
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT IS HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPS HOT TOO. A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT EXISTS
TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES BEFORE
RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN, WITH A RIDGE DRIFTING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND A TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE.
THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCES IS RETAINED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OR OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COULD BE A DAY WITHOUT RAIN
ANYWHERE AS PWAT VALUES DROP BELOW AN INCH IN OUR NORTHEAST.
DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPS CAN'T PERSIST FOR TOO LONG IN EARLY JUNE,
AND BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFTS AND A SURGE OF 2+ INCH PWATS MOVES
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AREAWIDE 50-60%
POPS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
IN THE FORECAST. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TO START OFF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HBG, PIB, AND HEZ WILL BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FOR ONE TO THREE HOURS DUE TO SCATTERED LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING,
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 73 89 68 / 40 20 50 10
MERIDIAN 94 72 89 66 / 60 20 50 10
VICKSBURG 93 74 89 69 / 20 30 30 10
HATTIESBURG 93 73 91 69 / 40 40 70 30
NATCHEZ 94 74 91 70 / 40 20 50 20
GREENVILLE 93 73 87 67 / 10 50 10 0
GREENWOOD 93 72 87 66 / 40 60 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/CR
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