132
FXUS64 KJAN 012005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL MS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TODAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HEAT IMPACTS, HEAT STRESS BUILDS BACK IN
MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN TO HOTTER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. IN THE NEAR
TERM, PER SPC AND THE NCAR AI/ML SUITE, THERE IS A HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR GETTING A FEW WINDY STORMS IN WHAT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE AN UNUSUALLY WELL-MIXED AIRMASS TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR AREA, SO IT WILL TAKE A GOOD BIT OF FORCING FROM THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA IF WE ARE TO SEE ANY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP THIS FAR WEST (I.E., EAST
CENTRAL MS), SEASONABLY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT, PARTICULARLY IF ANY MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAN GET GOING.
OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE FORECAST WILL EXPERIENCE QUIET
CONDITIONS AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. /EC/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND HANG AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH DEW
POINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS'LL ALL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AGAIN RE- ASSERT ITSELF
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BEGIN CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S AREAWIDE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BEGIN CREEPING UP,
POSSIBLY AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER BOUT OF DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS AS
WE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES ALSO WILL BE TOUGH TO
COME BY DURING THIS TIME, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
POSSIBLE. /19/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AS OF 1724Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE OBSERVING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF 1-3
HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF OBSERVED ON STATION,
MAINLY ACROSS A FEW NORTHERN SITES (GTR, AND MEI). WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. BEHIND IT, WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS.
BY 13Z SUNDAY, GWO AND GTR COULD SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO
MVFR. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 89 70 92 / 40 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 88 70 90 / 60 10 0 10
VICKSBURG 71 90 71 93 / 20 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 91 72 92 / 50 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 71 92 71 95 / 40 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 71 89 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 69 87 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/19/CR
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