561
FXUS64 KJAN 071817
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LAYER OF STRATUS
COVERING THE WHOLE CWA. THIS LAYER OF STRATUS HAS REMAINED ELEVATED
AND DENSE FOG HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT
TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS LAYER OF STRATUS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED AND
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL RESULT SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING WARMER THIS MORNING
THANKS TO RETURN FLOW PROVIDE BY SURFACE RIDGING NOSING ACROSS OUR
CWA FROM THE EAST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A COLD FRONT
EMANATING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES OUR CWA TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT, IT WILL
SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO NOON. THE RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT UNTIL THE COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR CWA MONDAY. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: BEHIND THE EARLY-WEEK COLD FRONT, AN
IMPENDING PLUNGE OF POLAR AIR WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE ARKLAMISS REGION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLE COLD, WITH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH POTENTIAL TO FALL INTO
THE MID-20S IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
LATE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN PLUMMET INTO THE MID-20S, WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THIS
COLDER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE, MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS LIMITED AT
THIS RANGE. /KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR GWO TO JAN/HKS AND
IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. THIS WILL CAUSE BRIEF CIG
IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL AROUND 20Z WHEN IFR/MVFR CIGS RETURN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AND
-RA TO THE NW BY 00Z AND SPREAD TO THE SE BY 06Z. THE -RA WILL END
FROM THE NW BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 53 31 57 / 60 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 42 54 29 56 / 70 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 41 52 32 57 / 40 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 59 33 60 / 70 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 43 54 33 59 / 40 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 39 47 31 52 / 40 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 40 50 29 54 / 50 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/LP
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