457
FXUS64 KJAN 160242 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
942 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK,
WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL WORSENING INTO LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GULF, WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE SCOPE OF THE
LARGE MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA (GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS NEAR 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES). STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR, WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND NEARLY 345K 850MB THETA E PROGGED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, EVIDENT
IN GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVIDENT IN GLOBAL MODELS, IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH
TX TO NORTHERN MEXICO. IN BETWEEN, INCREASED ASCENT FROM NORTHERN
WAVE AND ASCENT/CONVERGENCE FROM MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. THERE WON'T BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION FOR STRONGER STORMS.
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CAMS INDICATE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT (2 TO
4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT FULLY RULED OUT). REFS
AND 00Z HRRR INDICATE THAT POTENTIAL STRETCHING FROM NEAR WISNER
LA TO NATCHEZ INTO CRYSTAL SPRINGS INTO BAY SPRINGS IN MS. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO WATCH, ESPECIALLY IF THAT AXIS SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR, WHERE RECENT RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FELL
LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY TOTALS ARE ALSO IN THE ADAMS MS TO
CATAHOULA LA AREAS (2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA). BASED
ON SOME EASTERN EXTENSION TONIGHT OF THE RAINFALL AXIS AND
LIKELIHOOD HEAVY RAIN AXIS SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME, EXPANDED THE
FLOOD WATCH EAST TO INCLUDE SCOTT INTO NEWTON COUNTIES AND
SOUTHWARD INTO JONES TO FORREST TO LAMAR COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MS.
THE FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THE LOCAL HWO FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP BUT LOWS
WILL LESS SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 2F TO 5F ABOVE (71F TO 73F OVER
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST AREAS WHILE 68F TO 70F IN THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ...
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES AS OF THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS FROM THIS AFTERNOON STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE
AREA NEAR THE JACKSON METRO WITH POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FLOOD GRAPHIC AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. LIKEWISE, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
"ELEVATED" RISK.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED
FURTHER EAST TO COVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN MS AND COULD GET EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL REASSESS DURING THE EVENING SHIFT LATER
THIS EVENING TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION OF THE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. /CR/
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
SAME WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY GIVING US A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN. A
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY/FRIDAY THANKS TO REINFORCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF
A TROPICAL GULF LOW. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
DOWN BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN, AND CERTAINLY HEAVIER RAIN,
LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES, WITH REINFORCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL GULF LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIKELY THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2.3-2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING TO
BE FINE TUNED AND EXTENDED INTO LATE WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FRIDAY FOR THE I-
20 CORRIDOR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES A FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SIGNIFICANT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR A TARGETED AREA THAT MAY GET IN ON ALL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH LIKELY WILL NOT PUSH OUT ENTIRELY. THE SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR
IN ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH OF I-20, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BREAK
FROM THE RAINFALL, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, AIRMASS CHANGE IS INSIGNIFICANT, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND RAIN CHANCES DON'T GO AWAY
COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE SEASONAL WITH LESS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE THE WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN
CHANCES (POPS BETWEEN 15-30%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA LOOKING AHEAD INTO MONDAY. /SAS/CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SOME LIGHT SHRA REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, THEN SHRA AND TSRA PICKING
BACK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 16/06-08Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE
AT MOST BUT ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HKS, JAN,
MEI, PIB, HBG AND HEZ), WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME PERIOD OF THE DAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS (MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS) AREA LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. IFR STRATUS/CEILINGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR MID MORNING AROUND 16/16-18Z, WITH MOST SHRA AND
TSRA COVERAGE THE HIGHEST IN THE INTERSTATE 20 TO HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDORS THROUGH MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING MUCH
LOWERED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SOME
MORE RESTRICTIVE STRATUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 79 70 87 / 100 100 30 60
MERIDIAN 70 77 70 87 / 100 100 40 60
VICKSBURG 70 80 71 88 / 90 90 10 40
HATTIESBURG 72 78 71 86 / 70 90 60 80
NATCHEZ 72 79 72 87 / 90 100 40 70
GREENVILLE 70 84 71 89 / 60 50 20 10
GREENWOOD 70 84 71 90 / 60 60 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-047>051-
053>057-059>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS/CR
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