048
FXUS64 KJAN 101143 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TO CROSS
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING: ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG IS IMPACTING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT THE ADVISORY AND OTHER DENSE FOG MESSAGING WILL HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD IN THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
THIS WEEK: A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON FORECAST AREA WEATHER THIS WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO DRY WEATHER IN THE NEAR
TERM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
LIGHT RAINFALL EVENT (RAINFALL AMOUNTS < 0.5 INCHES ON AVERAGE) FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT'S
ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GLANCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN
WED-THU TIME FRAME.
THIS WEEKEND: FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA AND SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. IN SPITE OF WHAT SHOULD
BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE LIMITED,
AND AS OF NOW AT LEAST, MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN OUR MESSAGING. THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CREATES A LOWER
CEILING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS, BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
WHERE THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP AS IT COULD SUPPORT A LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL IF IT IS FURTHER THAN SOUTH THAN EXPECTED.
EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS LOW CEILINGS AND FOG REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SITES. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 17-18Z
AS FOG DISSIPATES. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN BUT WON'T IMPACT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 59 72 50 / 0 20 20 0
MERIDIAN 74 57 74 46 / 0 20 20 10
VICKSBURG 74 58 71 49 / 0 20 20 0
HATTIESBURG 77 57 79 51 / 0 10 20 10
NATCHEZ 75 59 76 53 / 0 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 72 53 62 43 / 10 60 20 0
GREENWOOD 73 56 66 43 / 10 60 30 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ046-051-
052-054>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW
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