662
FXUS64 KJAN 101217 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR DESTIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND HAS
WEAKENED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. WHILE
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST, STRONG WIND GUST WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG CONSENSUS FOR UP TO 40-50 MPH GUSTS IN THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE DOWN TO CENTRAL MS BY MID-MORNING, WITH 30+ MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA BY MID-DAY. WHILE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THOSE AREAS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER AN
WIND ADVISORY, WITH ONLY THE COUNTIES OF WESTERN ARK AND WESTERN LA
PARISHES EXCLUDED. DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE LONGEST DURATION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CORRIDOR BEING CONFINED TO
THE FAR NORTHEAST THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. 1-3 INCHES OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS EXPECTED.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, RAINFALL DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST ARK, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHWEST MS LIKELY TO SEE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN. ALL RAIN WILL TAPER OF BY THIS EVENING.
THICK CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
CREATE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 70S AND
OTHERS REACHING THE LOWER 90S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LEAVES THE REGION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVENT FIREWX DANGER
ON SUNDAY, BUT RAPIDLY DROPPING RH VALUES OF UNDER 40% AND HIGH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIREWX DANGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
TODAY. /KP/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LOW STRATUS PRODUCING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI TO START THE TAF PERIOD. GRADUAL
LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED, WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING AT
KGTR UNTIL AROUND 06Z SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY 06Z SUNDAY AS WELL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY BY 15Z TODAY. IF
WINDS ARE NOT GUSTY, STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL POSE A
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERN. WINDS WILL EASE BY 00Z SUNDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 59 91 62 / 20 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 57 88 59 / 60 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 86 59 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 79 58 91 60 / 20 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 86 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 82 59 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 56 91 61 / 30 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ029>033-038-039.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-016-025-026.
AR...NONE.
KP/NF
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