215
FXUS64 KJAN 141036 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
536 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
NEAR TERM (REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND): IN THE WAKE OF
THE RECENT SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO
WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. THEN AS WE GO
BEYOND TODAY, A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MEAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE, THE
RESULTING SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE HUMIDITY QUITE A BIT.
LONGER TERM (EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK): CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MINOR HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT TO INTERACT WITH THE GREATER
MOISTURE. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER 90S BECOMING MORE COMMON. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A CONTINUATION OF THE LAST 12/18 HOURS CONTINUES: VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT GENERALLY NORTHERN
TO VARIABLE WINDS. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 59 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 80 53 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 83 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 82 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 86 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 82 62 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 81 59 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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