256
FXUS64 KJAN 040849
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND LOCAL RADARS ALREADY INDICATE THE RAIN WILL GET AN EARLY
START. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. OUR AIRMASS WAS RATHER MOIST WITH
PWATS RUNNING AROUND TWO INCHES PER THE 00Z SUN JAN SOUNDING. AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES THIS MORNING, AND DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES,
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WAS STILL A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARLY ALONG A LINE FROM WEST POINT TO BASTROP. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THE
EARLY START TO CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TODAY
BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN AREAS WHERE THE
STORMS TRAIN. /22/
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO AND
COVERAGE OF STRATIFORM SHOWERS DIDN'T QUITE PAN OUT AS EXPECTED. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MAKE HEADWAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN AREAS, BRINGING A PUSH OF DRY AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
HOWEVER IT STALLS AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND STRUGGLES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS MEANS THAT FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. LOW RAIN CHANCES
(20% OR LESS) COULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-20, A LITTLE
LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH
EASTERLIES OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PUSH OF DRIER AIR MID WEEK
BEFORE A A SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW OUT OF TEXAS PROMOTE RETURN FLOW. AS
STATED PREVIOUSLY, LAPSE RATES ARE MOIST ADIABATIC AND DON'T
SUPPORT SEVERE, BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT NECESSITATES MONITORING. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WITH A PROMINENT GULF LOW FEATURE, OTHER
MODELS ARE WEAKER, WHICH IS PROBABLY THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THE
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF THE
CWA. IT VERY WELL COULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA, OR IS IT COULD BE IN
THE I-59 CORRIDOR, BUT IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO TELL AT THIS TIME.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MVFR AND IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT GLH AND HEZ RESPECTIVELY WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE AT 06Z.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS WL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES BY 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO AFTN AND MAY RESULT
IN LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS. AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS WL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GLH-GWO THAT WL IMPROVE
TO VFR THIS AFTN. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 67 86 63 / 70 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 80 65 85 61 / 90 40 20 0
VICKSBURG 83 64 86 60 / 50 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 68 84 66 / 90 40 30 10
NATCHEZ 82 66 86 63 / 70 20 10 0
GREENVILLE 83 63 85 57 / 30 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 85 63 87 56 / 30 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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