118
FXUS64 KJAN 022342 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
642 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RESUMES
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OF DIURNAL NATURE AND LINGERING BUT LESS
ROBUST AS INSOLATION WANES INTO THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PARKED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE MID-WEST. SOUTHERLY MOIST RETURN
FLOW WILL BE THE NORM OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLE WARMTH,
SOME 16F TO 22F ABOVE (63F TO 66F SOUTHEAST OF DELTA WHILE 67F TO
70F IN THE DELTA REGION). LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, WITH MOST
FOG CONCERNS IN THE INTERSTATE 59 TO HIGHWAY 98 TO 84 CORRIDORS.
HREF DENSE FOG PROBS REMAIN LOW. BASED ON THAT, ADDED FOG BUT
NO CONCERNS FOR DENSE FOG. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED
BY FAIRLY STRONG OUTFLOWS ARE ADVANCING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
AREN'T PARTICULARLY INTENSE, BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KT IN
THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
DOWNDRAFT/OUTFLOW PROCESS, AND THIS IS LEADING TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT QUIET
WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG IN THE
PINE BELT REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY: WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW COULD HELP TO ENHANCE WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS WAS THE CASE
TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THEN FOR SATURDAY: A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED PER SPC, AND IT APPEARS THE "PEAK" STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD BE ALONG/NW OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME WHERE WEST TO EAST WIND
SURGES MAY HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR OCCURRENCE RELATIVE TO OTHER
AREAS. FROM THERE THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS YOU GO
SOUTHEAST. WEAK LAPSE RATES, WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND WEAK
FORCING ALL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SEVERE, BUT JUST ENOUGH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN THIS MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: IN THE WAKE, SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL
RANGES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN
SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
TUESDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN
WEAK MOISTURE RECOVERY SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
CONVECTION IS LINGERING BUT LESS ROBUST AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
FOCUS TURNS TO MVFR TO IFR LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG/BR
DEVELOPING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONSET IS GENERALLY AFTER
03/05-07Z FRIDAY, WITH LOWEST FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DAYBREAK BEFORE
CLEARING AROUND 03/15-16Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR HEZ AND
POSSIBLE NEAR GLH, WITH ONSET GENERALLY AFTER 03/19-20Z AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 85 65 83 / 10 10 0 80
MERIDIAN 64 86 63 85 / 10 10 0 60
VICKSBURG 67 85 65 83 / 10 30 10 90
HATTIESBURG 66 85 66 85 / 10 10 0 60
NATCHEZ 68 84 67 83 / 10 40 0 90
GREENVILLE 69 85 68 79 / 10 30 20 90
GREENWOOD 68 87 66 82 / 10 10 20 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS20/EC
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