720
FXUS64 KJAN 290926
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PUSH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS,
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5-1.7". HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
STRONG QPF SIGNAL MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REACH 0.5-1.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MS. THE RISK
FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW, BUT THE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY COULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK
INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE WEST WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-55. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK...
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG SFC LOW MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND MOISTURE ASCENT
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS T-STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING. MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. LOOKING AT THE
OVERALL TIMING, BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO SHOW SUNDAY
NIGHT BEING THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR THE MOST INTENSE AND ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SEVERE GRAPHIC FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AN
"ENHANCED" RISK (3 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES. MAIN CONCERNS
FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE ENHANCED RISK INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE, AND TORNADOES.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING
TO SHOW PWATS OF 1.5-2.0", AND HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
WEAK QPF SIGNAL FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-2.0" ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP LIMIT FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. RAINFALL TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNDAY NIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN A FLASH
FLOOD GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS OUR
FORECAST AREA AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF. TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET GIVING US A BRIEF LITTLE BREAK
FROM THE RAIN.
FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A SFC LOW HOVERING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION LOOKING AHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WHEN OUR OUR NEXT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE
LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH MS
AND CENTRAL/SOUTH LA. THESE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING TO
MVFR AND SOME TO IFR. WHILE TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE
POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED TS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 65 84 65 / 90 30 30 90
MERIDIAN 76 63 83 64 / 80 40 50 70
VICKSBURG 77 66 84 64 / 90 10 20 90
HATTIESBURG 79 65 85 68 / 90 60 50 50
NATCHEZ 77 66 84 65 / 90 20 20 90
GREENVILLE 75 66 81 59 / 90 10 20 90
GREENWOOD 75 66 84 62 / 90 20 20 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/DL
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