568
FXUS64 KJAN 081911
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING
HEAVY RAINFALL, REMAIN A CONCERN EARLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. LIKELY FROST AND FREEZE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
UPDATE: MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK, SO
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AMID PERSISTENT SW FLOW. THE MAIN UPDATE
IS GREATER EMPHASIS ON MESSAGING OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, AS LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD. IN LIGHT OF THIS, HAVE INTRODUCED AN
ELEVATED AREA TO HWO GRAPHIC AND HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
CORRESPONDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH. INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SW FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FRIDAY MORNING
WILL CARRY SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
JACKSON METRO IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH. A SECOND, POSSIBLY MORE POTENT
ROUND IS ANTICIPATED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPTICK IN LLJ, RESULTING IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20 AND I-59 CORRIDORS.
THINKING THIS IS WHEN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS A
PLUME OF MOISTURE/THETA E SURGES NORTHWARD. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATEST IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN FROM THE INTIAL ROUND
AND IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS./SAS/
LEAD WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST INTO TONIGHT, HELPING STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS (990MB SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM) TO TAKE
SHAPE. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT (6 TO 10MB) AND
SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO PEAK NEAR 30MPH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL (35 TO 55KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM
LAYERS) AND MLCAPE (200 TO 500 J/KG). TO NOT ADD TO CONFUSION WITH
THE FRIDAY GRAPHIC, COMBINED MESSAGING TO THE FRIDAY SEVERE GRAPHIC
TO NOTATE PRE-DAWN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. HAZARDS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AS THE LEAD WAVE SWINGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, TRAILING SOUTHERN
SPOKE/COLD CORE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE DESERT SW TO TX TO OK
PANHANDLES INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD ONGOING CONVECTION THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIMITED GAPS IN COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WAVE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST TO THE DAY,
ASCENT WILL ENHANCE, HELPING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES/DESTABILIZATION FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME (40 TO 55KTS IN THE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM LAYERS AND 25C TO 27C
VERTICAL TOTALS AND 500 TO 1000 MLCAPE). LIMITED FORCING, HEIGHT
FALLS AND FRONTAL FEATURES LESSEN CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION (CI) AREA BUT SPREADING OUT TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE.
WITH POTENTIAL THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND SOME INDICATIONS
OF FURTHER SOUTH CI TOWARDS THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, WHICH LIMITED
FORCED EVENTS TYPICALLY DO, SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHWEST
DELTA COMES INTO QUESTION WHILE INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE PINE
BELT TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. TIMING WAS PUSHED BACK EARLIER TO
PREDAWN HOURS BUT MOST LIKELY MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON,
LIKELY AFTER 3PM FRIDAY AND GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. IF
NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN IS HAMPERED BY A CONFLUENT AXIS, THIS WILL
LESSEN THE DURATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. BASED ON THAT, MOST SEVERE
CONCERN WILL WIND DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LESS CONFIDENT
AFTERWARDS. DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO AND SOME SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WITH BEING IN MORE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) WINDOW, THERE REMAINS SOME DECENT CLOCKWISE
CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE MORNING HOURS AND SOME POTENTIAL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE MORNING MAY HAVE LIMITED THUNDER, A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT COMPARABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL TO
EVEN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS OR LINE ORTHOGONAL
NORTHEAST BOWING SEGMENTS.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL DRIVE PWS INTO THE
1.7 TO 1.9 RANGE, 850MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 14C/THETA E NEAR 330K. THIS
WILL DRIVE BROAD TRAINING AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS. MADDOX
CONCEPTUAL MODEL STILL FITS THE MEAN SYNOPTIC AND SURFACE PATTERN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME STRIPING OF
QPF EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS
THE PINE BELT TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SUPPORT IN HREF
PROB MATCH MEAN OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES (30
PERCENT) AND LPMM AND CAM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES NEAR OR
IN OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS. WITH POTENTIAL MULTIPLE ROUNDS, THIS COULD
SET UP PRIME ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. EVEN IF
THE EARLIER ROUNDS DON'T FLOOD, TRAINING COULD SET UP FAVORABLY FOR
FLOODING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BASED ON THAT, WE EXPANDED THE
LIMITED HWO GRAPHIC SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
AREA. LOCALIZED 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RECENT DRYNESS LIMITS
CONFIDENCE OF EARLIER ONSET OF FLOODING BUT CONTINUED CONFLUENT AXES
COULD PRIME LOCALIZED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR FLOODING INTO THE
DAY. WPC EXPANDED THEIR EARLIER SLIGHT AND MENTION THESE AREAS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL. LASTLY, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3
INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL BE A CONCERN FOR CONFLUENT
TRAINING ZONES. EXPECT ANY STORMS AND CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LIMITED FLOODING CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY):
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, GRADUALLY USHERING
IN COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
(I.E.~1035MB) WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD, STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
TO ARKLATEX TO MID SOUTH REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LIKELY
FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEED POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT FREEZE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK (60 TO 95 PERCENT BELOW FREEZING AND 40 TO 80 PERCENT
BELOW 28F). THIS SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MODERATION BUILD INTO THE MID NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE MVFR/IFR
CIGS CONTINUED CNTRL AND NORTH. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND TO 20KTS WL
PREVAIL AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z -SHRA AND
MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. CIGS WL LOWER TO IFR AND -SHRA
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY 12Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 74 59 68 / 80 90 100 50
MERIDIAN 63 73 62 71 / 60 90 100 70
VICKSBURG 64 75 56 65 / 70 80 100 30
HATTIESBURG 66 78 65 73 / 60 90 100 80
NATCHEZ 66 78 58 68 / 70 90 100 40
GREENVILLE 65 71 54 59 / 60 60 90 20
GREENWOOD 64 73 55 63 / 70 70 100 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ038-039-043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/22
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