318
FXUS64 KJAN 301120 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS THIS WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 105F-110F.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CURRENTLY REMAINS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
BEGINNING TODAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA COULD AFFECT
JUST HOW HIGH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB. THESE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS BECOME POSITIONED EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CAUGHT UP IN
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRACK FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH, MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS HOT, HUMID, AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FOR TODAY, WHILE MUCH OF THE CWA WILL AGAIN REMAIN RAIN FREE, A
CHANCE FOR A MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER OR STORM WILL
EXIST ACROSS MAINLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WHILE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, THE COMBINATION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED MID-LEVEL SHEAR COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TODAY.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS CURRENTLY LOW, A STRAY STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THAT BEING SAID,
GIVEN THIS OVERALL PATTERN SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES,
AND THE AGAIN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION, DAILY ANALYSIS OF
LOCAL RAOBS, HIGH-RES MODEL DATA, AND SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA WILL
NEED TO BE MADE AND PAID CLOSE ATTENTION TO TO DISCERN THE RISK FOR
MICROBURSTS AND ANY POSSIBLE EAST TO WEST MOVING MCS THAT COULD
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AS FAR AS THE HEAT STRESS IS CONCERNED, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 90S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY MID 90S FORECAST
AREAWIDE THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK DURING THIS TIME. AT THE MOMENT,
HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO LOOK THEIR HIGHEST TODAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY, AS VALUES PEAK UP AROUND 110F. AS A RESULT, A "HEAT
ADVISORY" IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY, AND WILL BE EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN INDICES BETWEEN 106F-110F REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN "ELEVATED THREAT" FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS IN THE HWO. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO EVALUATE ON A DAILY BASIS WHETHER THE EXTENSION OF THE "HEAT
ADVISORY" IS NEEDED LATER INTO THE WEEK, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
UPCOMING INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
12Z FORECAST PERIOD. WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY
DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WINDS WILL
BEGIN THE DAY LIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER OVERALL IS EXPECTED, BUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE TODAY ACROSS MAINLY EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI (KMEI) AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (KPIB & KHBG). /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 77 95 75 / 0 10 40 20
MERIDIAN 98 77 96 75 / 10 10 20 10
VICKSBURG 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 40 10
HATTIESBURG 97 76 95 75 / 20 20 50 20
NATCHEZ 97 77 95 75 / 0 10 60 10
GREENVILLE 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
19
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