672
FXUS64 KJAN 270555 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD
IMPACT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT, NO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LET THE MARGINAL RISK GRAPHIC FOR TODAY EXPIRE,
WITH REMAINING ADVERTISED THREATS IN PLACE STILL FOR TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY. SHORT-TERM FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EXPECT INCREASINGLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LA, SOUTHEAST AR, AND THE
MS DELTA AREAS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE GRADIENT WIND
THREAT WITH TONIGHT'S NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE, BUT SOME SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY,
THIS MORNING'S MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THOROUGHLY OVERTURNED
THE AIRMASS IN OUR AREA, AND SO THE STABLE CONDITIONS KEPT US DRY
AND STORM-FREE. THAT MAY CHANGE SOME HOWEVER AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION HAS RESUMED OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, AND THIS COULD HELP TO MODIFY CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
BRING A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING PER SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE. SO
WILL KEEP A SMALL PORTION OF NE LA/SW MS IN THE MARGINAL RISK.
OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN AS THE
CAPPING INCREASES ALOFT. /EC/
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT: INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THAT
FAVORABLE ASCENT AND AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH IN MID MS VALLEY WHERE THE EXIT REGION
OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL JUXTAPOSE A VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR AND SUPPORT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS HAVE POPPED UP FOR
OUR AREA. FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA, THE
ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND HELP TO KEEP DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
MAINLY NORTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH LATE MON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTION NOW EXISTS IS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE FARTHER SOUTH OVER
EASTERN TX INTO NWRN LA IN THE PERTURBED SUBTROPICAL STREAM AS WAS
THE CASE WITH TODAY'S 12Z GFS. WE ARE KEEPING THE MARGINAL RISK
GOING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, AND WILL WAIT TO SEE
SHORT TERM TRENDS WITH HOW CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE AS NIGHTFALL AND
THE INTENSIFYING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET HELP TO PROMOTE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS.
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THIS IS
STILL THE TIME FRAME FOR OUR MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN DURING
THIS FORECAST. VERY FAVORABLE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL
COMBINE WITH A WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
TO SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT "COULD" BE AN IMPRESSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
SET-UP IN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS OF NOW, THIS
MOST FAVORABLE WEST-EAST ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AND WILL FOLLOW SPC DAY 4 OUTLOOK CONCERNING THIS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY REGARDING JUST WHAT LATITUDE IT WILL SET
UP, SO FOLKS WITH INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO UPDATES. IT STILL APPEARS TIMING WISE THAT THIS WILL
MAINLY BE A LATE TUE TO OVERNIGHT EVENT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
EARLY WED MORNING, AND IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE TRAINING WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BOUNDARY.
WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT: ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONTINUED ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM,
HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES AND DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE LOT TO
SAY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS. CONFIDENCE IS THERE QUITE LOW WITH
FORECAST DETAILS. /EC/86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR/IFR
CIGS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SE AROUND 12Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
16Z ALONG WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND 18-24KTS THAT WL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN. THE GUSTY WIND WL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z CNTRL ANS
SOUTH BUT CONTINUE IN THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA WL BE PSBL DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SCATTERED
-TSRA WL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 87 67 83 / 40 50 60 60
MERIDIAN 65 86 65 84 / 30 50 60 60
VICKSBURG 69 88 67 83 / 40 40 50 60
HATTIESBURG 66 89 67 88 / 10 20 20 30
NATCHEZ 69 90 69 87 / 10 30 20 50
GREENVILLE 69 85 68 78 / 70 60 90 50
GREENWOOD 68 86 67 79 / 70 60 90 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC/22
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