611
FXUS64 KJAN 210230 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
830 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARD
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF IT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AS THEY RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. I'LL MAKE SOME SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRID ELEMENTS BASED ON TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS EVENING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE
TO ENHANCE AND EXPAND MESSAGING FOR THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS, AND TO GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD FOR QPF DURING THE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER AND TRANSITIONAL
TIME FRAMES. THE BROAD PICTURE IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS, BUT
SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS COULD STILL CHANGE AT THIS TIME FRAME
OUT FROM THIS WINTER STORM EVENT. LATEST GRAPHICS AND MESSAGING ARE
BASED ON A REASONABLE RANGE OF POSSIBLE ICE/SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A GRAPHIC TO LOCAL PRODUCTS
SHOWING REASONABLE EARLIEST ONSET TIMES FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL AIR MASSES
TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW GENERATING SOME LIFT AND MOISTENING
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE AREA. BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE TRENDING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STRENGTH AND
EXTENT OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WITH 1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT THE EXPANSIVE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STRONG NORTH- SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. TO OUR WEST, A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL MORE LIKELY INFLUENCE WHAT DEGREE OF WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS WE EXPERIENCE HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS ON THE SCENARIO FOR BETTER
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MORE EXPANSIVE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH
REGIONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES FOR HOW PROGRESSIVE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE (AS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR), BUT SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IS THERE TO EXTEND THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY PRECIP FALLING INTO THE MORNING AT LEAST ON SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SETUP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 1/4 INCH
(ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA) HAS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50- 60%
FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. CHANCES
EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR 1/4 INCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE AROUND 20-40% AT THIS TIME. REASONABLE UPPER LIMITS INDICATE
AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE BASTROP,
LAKE PROVIDENCE, HAMBURG, GREENVILLE, AND CLEVELAND AREAS. THIS
ICE STORM THREAT WAS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR EXPANDING THE WINTER
STORM IMPACT AREAS ON LOCAL GRAPHICS AND IN MESSAGING. SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THERE. AND SLEET
MIXING IN WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD ALTER SOME IMPACTS, THOUGH
WOULD STILL POSE A THREAT TO TRAVEL.
THE REINFORCING NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN SOME DELTA
AREAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL
POSE RISK TO IN-GROUND AND EXPOSED ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR
THE EXTENDED COLD WEATHER. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR
REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL MAPS FROM WEATHER MODELS. EVEN IF THE
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE REASONABLE, MANY OF THESE OUTPUTS RELY
ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF 10 TO 1. EXPECTED
ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT CURRENTLY LIMIT
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO 1, THUS REDUCING
POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE ACHIEVED FROM THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS THEY
RANGE MAINLY FROM VFR TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 38 58 50 62 / 0 60 80 60
MERIDIAN 33 58 46 61 / 0 30 70 60
VICKSBURG 39 58 48 61 / 0 70 90 60
HATTIESBURG 38 67 52 71 / 0 30 40 50
NATCHEZ 43 61 52 66 / 0 60 70 50
GREENVILLE 36 52 44 53 / 0 90 70 40
GREENWOOD 37 55 45 56 / 0 90 80 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page