327
FXUS64 KJAN 202310 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE
TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AREAS WEST OF I-55, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA WILL START TO
SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S. ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING
INTO THE 80S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. /CR/
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WEDGING EFFECT AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CAUSE A LITTLE DIP IN DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
OUR CWA PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
REGARDING THE RISK FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD GIVEN THE COMBINATION
OF ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS/FUELS, ALONG WITH RHS FALLING IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND AT TIMES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. AT THIS
TIME, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FIRE WX GRAPHIC AND "LIMITED"
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA.
THE SAVING GRACE PREVENTING A MORE CRITICAL SITUATION WORTHY OF RED
FLAG PRODUCTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EACH DAY, WHICH SHOULD
HELP CONTROL SPREAD OF FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, CAUTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEED LOCAL BURN BANS, WHICH CONTINUE TO BE ADDED
IN NEW AREAS. IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS IN LATER FORECASTS OF
STRONGER WIND ON ANY UPCOMING DAYS, MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE
ELEVATED ACCORDINGLY. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 48 82 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/CR/22
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