479  
FXUS64 KJAN 152322 AAA  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
622 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,  
AND WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
- BEFORE THEN, DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL RULE.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS  
FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS  
WILL CONTINUE A LONG STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
CONDITIONS, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS  
TO REACH 90 DEG F IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE  
THROUGH THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES  
PRECEDING THE WEEKEND FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER  
50S F BUT WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S F THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /EC/86/  
 
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A  
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST  
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT, WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY THE DELTA REGION. THIS SPECIFIC  
AREA IS CURRENTLY WHERE THE BETTER CONGLOMERATION OF WIND SHEAR,  
INSTABILITY, AND FORCING IS FORECAST TO RESIDE AS A COLD FRONT  
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL  
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SUCH STORMS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING, IN  
ADDITION TO THE TRACK OF SOME KEY FEATURES, AND WHETHER OR NOT  
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADEQUATE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST  
FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS  
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A  
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO  
GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 0.50-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD BE SOME MUCH WELCOMED  
AND NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA, BUT IT WON'T PUT MUCH OF A DENT  
IN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN A  
RETURN TO QUIET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN THE WEEK, WITH DRIER AIR AND  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
/19/EC/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 59 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 0  
MERIDIAN 57 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0  
VICKSBURG 59 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 59 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0  
NATCHEZ 59 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENVILLE 58 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENWOOD 58 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
/19/22  
 
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