337
FXUS64 KJAN 140234 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER GULF, WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.6 TO 2 INCHES). WARM,
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS KEPT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S.
ENVIRONMENTAL EVENING SOUNDING/RAOBS AT 00Z INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG, WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST 0-3KM MEAN BULK SHEAR FLOW (10-15KTS). SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH WAS THE IMPETUS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MID SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MS. THIS IS
PROPAGATING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY 2-3 HOURS AHEAD
OF CAMS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS
EARLY AS 10PM AND MOST LIKELY AROUND 11PM. THIS COULD BRING SOME
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. UNFAVORABLE SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION (MORE LINE
PARALLEL) BRINGS MORE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE COLD POOL DOMINANT STORMS
AND HOW MUCH ROBUST CONVECTION ACTUALLY PROPAGATES IN THE AREA IS
IN QUESTION. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED TO
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 3-4AM.
PERSISTENCE IS THE NORM AGAIN (I.E. ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS). LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 6F TO
12F ABOVE (75F TO 78F). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING
HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME SUNDAY, WITH EVEN MORE
RELIEF EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. MORE ON THAT IN A BIT. WHILE IT'LL REMAIN STEAMY SUNDAY,
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, DUE TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL YIELD BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE CWA. AS A
RESULT, THE "HEAT ADVISORY" THAT'S BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE FRIDAY WILL
NOT BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY ON THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. STILL, HEAT
INDICES DO LOOK TO APPROACH 105F OVER SOME WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY, GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES. THEREFORE, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS
WILL EXIST OVER THESE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SOUTH AND INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND AGAIN AROUND DAY BREAK
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AS THEY APPROACH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 70S AND INTO THE 80S, MOISTURE WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT
THE YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF, WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE H2O
VALUES GENERALLY HOVERING BETWEEN 2-2.5 INCHES. AS A TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION AND INTO AND
THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT SLOWS/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA. THEN THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THE REMNANTS OF
SAID TROPICAL WAVE ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, MAINTAINING GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO
RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, ALONG WITH
THE TRAINING OF CONVECTION WITH THE PASSING OF EACH DISTURBANCE,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST FLASH FLOODING. DURING THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD, RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER CURRENTLY LOOK POSSIBLE. THIS IS STILL A COUPLE OF
DAYS OUT, ESPECIALLY THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OF
COURSE, THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS. SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS
ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH THE THREAT AREA AND TIMEFRAME OF ANY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE MADE. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OTHER THAN AN AREA OF STORMS TO THE NORTH THAT COULD PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES (MAINLY GWO AND GTR), THE REST
OF THE SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET. ANY
TSRA IN THE NORTH MOVING IN AT GWO AND GTR AROUND 14/03-04Z COULD
LINGER AS SHRA THROUGH AROUND 14/08-10Z SUNDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF GUST UP TO 30KTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
(GLH, GWO, GTR AND HEZ). INTRODUCED LOW PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AFTER 14/19-20Z SUNDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 93 73 81 / 10 10 90 100
MERIDIAN 76 94 73 81 / 10 10 80 90
VICKSBURG 77 93 73 81 / 10 30 90 90
HATTIESBURG 76 94 75 85 / 10 10 60 80
NATCHEZ 76 94 74 83 / 0 30 80 100
GREENVILLE 78 91 71 79 / 10 40 80 70
GREENWOOD 77 92 71 81 / 10 40 80 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/19
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