663
FXUS64 KJAN 120526
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.
- LIMITED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, USHERING IN
COOLER AND SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK (THURSDAY): MORNING SURFACE AND GOES EAST
WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO W
VA AND VA REGION OF THE APPALACHIANS. CONTINUED WARMTH INTO MID
OCTOBER WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEEK. MEAN RIDGE AROUND 592-594DM
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
90-96F RANGE AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EAST MS TO
LOW TO UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST DELTA) WILL BE THE NORM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEARING RECORDS (AVERAGE IS 81). THERE IS
ENOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING AND DROP IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS (25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) FOR A LIMITED FIRE DANGER. KEPT
MENTION OF LIMITED FIRE DANGER IN HWO GRAPHIC. DEEP MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DIP (20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE) MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SO LIMITED
FIRE DANGER SHOULD PERSIST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIGHT RAIN TOTALS FROM
ISAIAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
LIMIT GREATER FIRE CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. THERMAL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF COAST WILL USHER IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT NOTHING
ON THE ORDER TO SUPPORT DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING
WITH FOR SOME TIME. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO MID TO LATE WEEK (WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY) LEADING TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF RETURN FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DEEP
MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE REGION (ARKLATEX INTO MID
SOUTH) COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BUT MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE REGION.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY): A MORE FALL-LIKE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON TAP INTO LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL OVER CA/NV REGION EARLY WEEK AND EJECTING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS MID WEEK MAY POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS/UPPER JET DIVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERING MORE TOWARDS
THE EARLIER SOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION: THE EURO RETROGRADING A
SPOKE OF ENERGY TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE ANOTHER OVER THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE EVOLUTION HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE
PHASED AND AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL SOLUTION OF THE GFS EARLIER
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, A STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S (36-45F). AT THE VERY LEAST,
COOL DOWN REMAINS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
FRIDAY (82-91F), WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S (60-66F) THAT
MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 (48-52F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (53-57F) TO THE SOUTH. SEASONABLE
AND PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(HIGHS OF 70-78F SATURDAY AND 76-82F SUNDAY AND LOWS OF 45-50F NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 TO 50-54F TO THE SOUTH). WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT
STRESSED VEGETATION AND LONGSTANDING LIMITED RAINFALL, THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. 1035-1045MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MID WEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY
GRADIENT WIND/WIND GUSTS REACHING 30MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE A
CONCERN AND A FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC/ELEVATED RISK WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST. /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 62 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 92 59 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 93 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 93 63 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 93 63 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC
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