551
FXUS64 KJAN 122059
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS PRECEDING AND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, AND A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
FREEZE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WIND WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION, AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY OVERNIGHT. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
RESULTING IN INCREASED RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. A STOUT UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND IT'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR
NEXT STORM CHANCES. SHEAR IS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COMBINED
WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES, SO CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED FOR A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SEVERE
THREAT WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA IN QUICK FASHION, AND STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A STRONG GRADIENT WIND
THREAT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE HAS NOW INCREASED ENOUGH TO MESSAGE
FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS IN THE HWO GRAPHICS.
THE FREEZE THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WINTER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN. LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEY COULD BE WELL BELOW
FREEZING OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA (<28 F).
THIS IS ESPECIALLY NOTABLE GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH, SO
PLANTS WILL BE VULNERABLE. IMPACTS TO UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE
VEGETATION ARE LIKELY, AND SO HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH GRAPHICAL HWO
MESSAGING FOR THIS THREAT. IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY FREEZE CONCERNS
WILL BE FOR MON NIGHT, BUT SOME FROST/FREEZE THREATS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT FOR TUE NIGHT AS WELL. THEREAFTER, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD OVER OUR REGION. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 38 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 38 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 38 70 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 40 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 40 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 40 67 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 41 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS/EC/19
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