206
FXUS64 KJAN 042358 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY, THEN WORSEN
OVER THE WHOLE AREA THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LATEST RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED
AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A 595DM MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO MEAN NORTHERLY DRY
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LOCK IN PWS GENERALLY
AROUND ONE INCH AND LOW HUMIDITY ALOFT (I.E. 700-300MB LAYER
HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS) AND EFFICIENT MIXING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES: HIGHS BECOMING
SEASONABLY WARM WEDNESDAY (91F TO 96F) AND SEASONABLE LOWS (71F TO
74F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING BEING THE NORM, HEAT
STRESS WILL REMAIN LOWER OVER MOST OF THE CWA BUT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK OF HEAT INDEX IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS (HEAT INDICES IN THE
102F TO 105F RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON). THUS, WL MENTION A
"LIMITED" THREAT OF HEAT STRESS IN OUR SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCAL RADARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS CLOSE TO OUR SOUTHWEST INDICATIVE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. /22/
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY): AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS THE GRIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE (LOW AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR LESS EFFICIENT MIXING, WARMTH/MOIST
ADVECTION AND INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE 92F TO 96F RANGE
AND LOWS IN THE 72F TO 76F RANGE). THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN MORE
OF A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP MODERATE IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS (70F TO 76F) AND
INCREASING HEAT STRESS CONCERNS.
EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN OBSERVING, THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS THE LOW LEVEL RETURN MOIST
ADVECTION AND INCREASED DEEPENING MOISTURE ALOFT (PWS IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK). RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAINLY BE SUMMERTIME VARIETY (DIURNALLY INDUCED) WITH ISOLATED TO AT
TIMES SCATTERED COVERAGE (20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE). THIS PATTERN
WILL NOT FAVOR ANY NOTEWORTHY STORM THREAT, BUT A FEW SCATTERED
STRONGER GUSTY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERN REMAINS INCREASING HEAT STRESS
INTO NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY, THE AREA OF "LIMITED" RISK WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TO NEAR 105 F EXPANDS TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK WHILE AN "ELEVATED" RISK AREA IS
INTRODUCED THAT HIGHLIGHTS A RISK FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 F FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THIS PERIOD OF HEAT DANGER
WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND UPGRADES TO "SIGNIFICANT" RISK AREAS AS WELL AS HEAT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY BY LATER THIS WEEK. /86/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 71 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 70 95 73 95 / 0 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 72 96 74 96 / 0 10 10 30
NATCHEZ 72 96 73 96 / 0 20 10 30
GREENVILLE 69 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/LP/NF
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