266
FXUS64 KJAN 241844
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
144 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY: A WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD A FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A WEAK CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA.
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON
LOCAL RADARS AT EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WERE
INCREASING. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE SHORT TERM BUT THE 12Z SUN JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF AN INCH AND
THREE QUARTERS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR TWO INCHES
AND SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE RUNOFF
ISSUES LEADING BRIEF FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WHILE GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON THE
HEAVY RAIN THREATS FOR THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
MCV TRACK, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST WE'LL SEE A
GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN THE TUE-THU
TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A REINVIGORATED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT GREAT IN LIGHT OF RECENT GUIDANCE INCONSISTENCIES, BUT
THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AND PRECIP-EFFICIENT
AIRMASS, REMAIN IN OUR REGION, ALONG WITH FAIRLY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN OUR
HWO GRAPHICS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY THREAT INCREASES UNTIL THERE IS AN
OVERWHELMING AMOUNT OF OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE SUPPORT TO JUSTIFY IT.
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD EXPECT HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TYPICAL LATE MAY TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN AWAY FROM
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA BY 21Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AND PREVAIL UNTIL IMPROVING CLOSE TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 82 68 83 / 50 60 50 80
MERIDIAN 67 81 68 81 / 50 70 60 90
VICKSBURG 67 83 67 84 / 40 50 30 70
HATTIESBURG 68 81 69 82 / 50 70 60 90
NATCHEZ 68 84 68 84 / 40 50 50 70
GREENVILLE 67 82 68 84 / 40 40 50 70
GREENWOOD 67 83 67 84 / 40 50 50 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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