338
FXUS64 KJAN 311932
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HEAT IMPACTS, HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK
IN BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST US AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A LIFTING
WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.4 INCHES WERE ANALYZED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TODAY. IT IS HOT AND HUMID, TO SAY THE LEAST.
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WERE
BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON, AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ARE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MICROBURST PRODUCTION TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE PLUME OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW INTO SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL STILL SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT MOST
NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE THE "DRIER" (NEAR 65-70 DEGREE) DEW
POINTS WRAPPING INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL
PULL TO THE NORTHEAST AND GET ABSORBED IN THE JET STREAM, LEAVING
BROAD ZONAL RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR SOUTH. IT'S
NOT THE MOST DOMINANT RIDGE, BUT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR HEAT AND
LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A
RETURN OF HEAT STRESS MESSAGING WHEN THAT OCCURS. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY EAST OF I-55. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT S TO W WINDS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL, WITH SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
LOW STRATUS IN THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 93 71 90 / 20 30 20 0
MERIDIAN 73 92 72 90 / 40 50 50 10
VICKSBURG 76 94 71 91 / 20 30 10 0
HATTIESBURG 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 40 10
NATCHEZ 75 95 72 93 / 20 20 20 0
GREENVILLE 76 95 71 90 / 20 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 75 93 70 88 / 20 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
NF/NF/SAS20
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