319
FXUS64 KJAN 160147
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE
THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE DELTA THIS EVENING
AND STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN AFFECT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHES TRACE CORRIDOR, WITH
ANOTHER WATCH FURTHER SOUTH LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA./15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
UPDATES TODAY: MESSAGING FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT REMAINS ON
TRACK. HIGHEST DAMAGING WIND PROBS REMAIN NORTH OF I-20, BUT NOTE
THAT THE EXPANSION OF 30% SEVERE WIND PROBS HAS ONCE AGAIN FORCED
AN EXPANSION OF THE THE "ENHANCED" THREAT AREA, AND IT NOW
INCLUDES NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE, THE WIND ADVISORY IS
BEING MAINTAINED WITH NO CHANGES, AND THE FREEZE THREAT AND WATCH
ARE UNCHANGED AS WELL. EXPECT A FREEZE WARNING TO BE ISSUED ONCE
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS MOVED OUT. WILL ALSO NOTE AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED THAT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMMEDIATE IMPACT.
IN THE NEAR TERM: WIND HAS PICKED UP GREATLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY
AS EXPECTED, AND IT IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. A STOUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, CONTINUES TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT: THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR, ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL
SUPPORT A FORCED SQUALL LINE RACING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO BE MESSAGED, WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE HIGHLIGHTING NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT AREA LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/FORCING WILL BE
GREATEST, AND WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SEEM STRONG ENOUGH IN THE GUIDANCE FOR SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SEGMENTS ORTHOGONAL TO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VECTOR, AND WITH DISCRETE CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE. TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, IS STILL THE
MAIN CONCERN REGARDLESS OF HOW THREAT AREAS SHIFT HERE ON OUT.
CONCERNING THE WIND THREAT: STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM ARE
RESULTING IN A STRONG GRADIENT WIND THREAT BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN
THE WAKE OF STORMS TONIGHT. GUSTS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN 40 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA REGION, AND EXPECT
SIMILAR GUSTS TOMORROW GIVEN THE STRONG MIXING (UP TO 10KFT) IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. SO A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
CONCERNING THE FREEZE THREAT: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A POLAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, AND WILL PROMOTE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT, WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME FREEZE
THREAT REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
RECENT RECORD WARMTH (E.G., WARMEST START TO MARCH ON RECORD AT
JACKSON, MS), AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THIS FREEZE. IMPACTS TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION ARE
EXPECTED. AND, WITH MORE LOW TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TUE MORNING, THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EARLY SEASON FRUIT CROPS. WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED MESSAGING FOR TUE NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN A
MORE IDEAL POSITION, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LESS THEN WITH THE
THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO SHIFT OUT OF OUR REGION.
IN ADDITION, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A
VERY SHORT WINDOW (1 TO 2 HOURS) FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON THE
BACK END OF THE FRONT, INDICATIVE OF COLDER AIR OUTRUNNING PRECIP.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL AND WILL
BE BRIEF, BUT WILL BE A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON IN THE WAKE
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN MID MARCH.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A GUSTY SOUTH WIND OF 25-35KTS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THIS EVENING AT TAF SITES. AFTER 00Z A BAND OF TSRA ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KTS WL
BE PSBL FOR 2-3HRS AS THE BAND OF TSRA MOVE THROUGH. GUSTY NW WIND
20-25KTS AND MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE TSRA UNTIL
CIGS IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 36 47 26 / 10 80 20 0
MERIDIAN 81 36 49 26 / 0 90 20 0
VICKSBURG 83 36 50 27 / 20 90 10 0
HATTIESBURG 84 41 53 30 / 10 90 10 0
NATCHEZ 84 37 50 28 / 10 90 10 0
GREENVILLE 80 34 45 28 / 70 90 0 0
GREENWOOD 82 35 47 25 / 30 90 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040-041.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
042>066.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ074-075.
15/
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