615
FXUS64 KJAN 260837
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THROUGH THE WEEK...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
REGION IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE HEADING INTO THE NEW
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST US EXTENDS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY WEATHER
REGIME WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS LONGER DEPENDING ON WHICH LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE BEST VERIFIES.
IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER DANGER: EXTREMELY DRY VEGETATION
COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THE
"ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC. THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY,
AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED BY THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER AT THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE FIRE DANGER ELEMENTS, WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER GRAPHIC GOING.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GENERAL IDEA IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR AT LEAST
SOME MOIST RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND AND TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS CAN BE HAVE MORE CERTAINTY
AND MORE CONVERGENT SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN DAY/NIGHT MAY PUSH 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. /OAJ/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
AS AN OVERCAST/BROKEN DECK OF CIRRUS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AROUND 3
KNOTS. THESE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS FROM THE EAST
AND EAST SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 50 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 79 50 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 79 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 78 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 78 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/EC/19
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