046
FXUS64 KJAN 221120
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- TROPICAL BERTHA IS FORECAST TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS IMPACTS IN OUR AREA BEING
VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST TODAY, WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THIS WON'T BRING A RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, HOWEVER. THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT,
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE ZONE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 110
TO 115 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION TODAY, BUT HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
A COOL FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION TODAY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, AND THEN EXPANDING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT IS
LIKELY TO PUSH US BACK INTO ELEVATED AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT STRESS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
AS OF 1120Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS TO START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. SOUTH AND EAST TAF SITES COULD SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP DOWN
TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME AREAWIDE AND A GUSTY NE-E WIND 17-20KTS WL DEVELOP AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WL BE
PSBL IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 19Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 77 93 75 / 20 20 40 20
MERIDIAN 95 76 92 75 / 20 20 50 20
VICKSBURG 97 78 94 76 / 20 20 30 10
HATTIESBURG 96 77 91 76 / 30 40 60 10
NATCHEZ 99 78 94 75 / 20 20 40 10
GREENVILLE 95 76 93 74 / 10 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 97 76 94 74 / 20 10 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-026>033-036>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-066-074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-
059>065-072-073.
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
NF/CR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page