914
FXUS64 KJAN 152307 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
607 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
ANOTHER QUIET EVENING IS ON TAP. RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS
INDICATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES,
GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD. SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF, WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BACKDOOR FRONT
SHIFTING IN FROM THE EAST. THIS IS BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR
EVIDENT IN GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS FALLING TO
AROUND 1.3 INCHES) IN CENTRAL TO EAST MS WHILE DEEPER TO THE WEST
CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. THIS KEEPS THE REGION DRY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 8-14F ABOVE (73-76F). UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALL IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE SO FAR TODAY.
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES AS STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE TRIPLE
DIGITS IN MANY AREAS TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN
JEOPARDY AT MULTIPLE LOCAL CLIMATE SITES. ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE
FROM RECENT DAYS IS A SHIFT TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, GRADUALLY
BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
LOWER HEAT INDICES ACROSS A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL MS TODAY AND
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-55 ON WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL OTHER AREAS, AND ANOTHER ANOTHER HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TOMORROW IN THE SAME AREA. WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, THAT IS THE REGION WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON - SOUTH/WEST MS, NORTHEAST LA, AND
SOUTHEAST AR, AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TOMORROW, THE FOCUS WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED
TO SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY: A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL STILL
SUPPORT HOT DAYS, WITH TEMPS STILL APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS
IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S, MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S AT TIMES, HEAT STRESS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MORNING TEMPS
WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE 60S AT TIMES IN MANY AREAS LATE THIS WEEK.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH RETURNING CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY, AROUND 10MPH AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-7KFT IS ONGOING AND WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 74 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 74 95 70 94 / 0 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 74 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>037-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/DL/EC
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