976
FXUS64 KJAN 171138 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTHEAST, RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A >1015MB RIDGE NOSING
ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE EAST AND A <995MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THANKS TO
UPSTREAM TROUGHING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM OUR
WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES
WILL WORK TO INCREASE DEEP MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. THE 00Z SUN JAN SOUNDING ONLY HAD A PWAT OF 0.91IN AS RESULT
OF A VERY DRY LAYER AT 850MB ALONG WITH A FORMIDABLE CAP ALSO AT
850MB. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY THIS AFTERNOON PWATS WILL BE BACK
ABOVE 1.75IN OVER OUR SOUTHWEST WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S. THE HEATING OF THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THAT MAY SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. THE CONVECTION
TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHILE MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN THE
EAST. PATCHY LIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BUT A SOUTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THIS WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): COLD CORE LOW, DEVELOPING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS, WILL EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CANADA AND HUDSON BAY REGION. PERSISTENT SEASONABLE WARMTH
(4F TO 8F ABOVE AND HIGHS IN 86F TO 91F) AND MOISTURE (1.5 TO 2
INCHES) WILL BE THE NORM. SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK
WEEK. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED (20 TO 45 PERCENT
TUESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 65-75 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK IN TO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY). THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF DRYING
OUT UNTIL SOME TIME NEXT WEEK, SO GET THOSE RAINCOATS OUT AND TAKE
OTHER NEEDED PRECAUTIONS!
RAIN TOTALS DON'T LOOK PARTICULARLY WORRISOME HOWEVER WITH SUCH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL, AN ISOLATED CELL OVERACHIEVING
COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING; PARTICULARLY IN URBAN OR
OTHERWISE NONPOROUS LOCATIONS SO TAKE HEED.
RISING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE GOING TO BRING ABOUT A MORE SUMMERTIME
FEEL WITH SITES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO LOW 90S BY MID WEEK, WHICH
BRINGS US TO OUR NEXT POINT:
INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 27C TO 29C), SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
INTO EARLY TO MID WEEK. A STRONGER WAVE SWINGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN CANADA (995MB TO 1000MB), FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF STATES. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE, INCREASING ASCENT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE THOSE HIGHER RANGE CHANCES
LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH
LOWS LESS SEASONABLE, FALLING FROM 8F TO 12F ABOVE (UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S WEST) TO 4F TO 8F ABOVE (MID TO UPPER 60S). WITH LESS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY AND LAPSE RATES, SOME STRONGER STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AND WHILE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN TOTALS FOR THE WEEK WILL BE AROUND A COUPLE OF INCHES (1
TO 3 INCHES), WHICH WILL HELP LESSEN SOME LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONCERNS. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 20Z WHEN
TSRA MAY AFFECT HEZ UNTIL 01Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WL
CONTINUE AFTER 08Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND
TO 20KTS WL DEVELOP AT GLH BY 17Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL SUBSIDING BY
02Z MON. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 69 88 72 / 30 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 87 65 88 69 / 0 0 20 0
VICKSBURG 87 71 89 72 / 30 10 20 10
HATTIESBURG 86 67 88 70 / 10 0 30 0
NATCHEZ 87 72 89 73 / 50 20 20 10
GREENVILLE 90 72 90 73 / 20 10 10 20
GREENWOOD 89 71 89 73 / 0 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/22
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