363
FXUS64 KJAN 281120 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, IT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY FOR ALL AREAS.
- THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS WILL PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RHS DIPPING INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED CONCERNS FOR GRASS FIRE
TYPE ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONTINUED GENERALLY LIGHT WIND
WILL MITIGATE A MORE SERIOUS SITUATION WITH UNPREDICTABLE FIRE
SPREAD. DAYTIME RHS WILL TREND UPWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
BEGINNING TO LIMIT METEOROLOGICAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO FIRE DANGER.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SHIFTING INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT, RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER WAVE, AND CONSEQUENTLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS/COVERAGE, IS POOR.
WHILE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN HAVE INCREASED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, AND IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL
FALL IN SOME PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED IN NATURE FROM CONVECTION. ON THE OPPOSITE
SIDE OF THE COIN, SOME AREAS MAY SEE VERY LITTLE RAIN THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH DROUGHT BUSTING RAIN NOT AT ALL A GUARANTEE AT
THIS STAGE. STILL, ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS CLOSELY AND HAVE
CONTINGENCIES IN MIND FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS.
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY WHAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A MORE
ORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ARRIVING IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. IF THIS SYSTEM PANS OUT AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED,
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR MAY PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS.
HOWEVER, AT THIS FORECAST RANGE AND GIVEN RECENT MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES, IT IS TOO SOON TO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY FURTHER
DETAILS. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 49 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 44 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 84 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 45 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 84 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 83 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 83 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/DL/22
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