758
FXUS64 KJAN 131043
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
'HOT' WOULD BE THE PERFECT WORD TO DESCRIBE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD, EXPAND, AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER 100S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HUMIDITY WILL BE EASED DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENED RIDGE, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
ENSURE THAT MOST DAYS SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX READING VALUES IN THE 105-
110 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC AND A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKEWISE, THE AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED AND IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH 103 DEGREES AND WE MAY
SEE SOME NEW RECORD HIGHS BEING SET, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARMER
GUIDANCE OVERPERFORMS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE "ELEVATED" RISK COULD GET
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WHERE HEAT
INDICES COULD EXCEED ABOVE 110 DEGREES AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES AND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE MID-WEEK.
REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES, THEY ARE MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THAT TIME, GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE HIGH CENTER TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL CHANCES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN
CHANCES COULD BE FURTHER INCREASED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THAT COULD RESULT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VERY ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 97 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 99 77 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 99 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 97 78 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/DL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page