840
FXUS64 KJAN 231532 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. REGIONAL
RADARS WERE LIT UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH A
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. CONSIDERING OUR WARM MOIST
AIRMASS AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THAT MAY LEAD TO
MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER WITH CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OR WITHIN THE LINE
ITSELF. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
CURRENT EARLY MORNING RADAR SCANS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA MOVING INTO MS FROM THE WEST.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LINGERING MOIST
CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. PWAT VALUES UP TO 2.0
INCHES IN THE REGION ARE NEAR MAX VALUES FOR LATE MAY, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES FOR THE DAYS AHEAD. SPC ENSEMBLE VIEWER
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG QPF SIGNAL ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUED TO BE ADVERTISED PRIMARILY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. LIKEWISE, THE "LIMITED" FLASH FLOODING THREAT
MESSAGING WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55.
THE FORECAST MESSAGING REMAINS ON TRACK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO RIDGE
LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO HELP
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTERACTING WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. AN "ELEVATED"
RISK FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
RIDGE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. WITH THAT IN MIND, A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
ISOLATED SHRA IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE TAF
PERIOD, AS WELL AS AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO PREVAILING VFR BY AROUND 16Z, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST TIMING
FOR THUNDER IMPACTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 68 81 69 / 50 60 90 80
MERIDIAN 86 67 83 68 / 70 60 80 80
VICKSBURG 86 68 80 68 / 50 50 90 80
HATTIESBURG 86 69 82 70 / 80 50 90 70
NATCHEZ 86 68 80 69 / 80 70 100 80
GREENVILLE 84 68 81 68 / 60 60 80 80
GREENWOOD 85 67 83 68 / 50 60 90 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page