369
FXUS64 KJAN 151150 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- A WARM-UP WILL BRING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, AND SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
THIS WEEK...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS SETTLED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH 1036 TO 1038MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO MID SOUTH,
OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS IS BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S AND
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
CONTINUED 4-5 MB GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, FAVORING
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. DANGEROUS COLD
REMAINS ON TAP: LOWS (15F TO 25F) AND WIND CHILLS (10F TO 20F).
DRESS IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES AND
PLANTS. A WARM PLACE TO STAY IS CRITICAL IN THESE DANGEROUS
CONDITION AND ENSURE TO CONTINUE TO DRIP FAUCETS. ONGOING COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AND MESSAGING REMAIN VALID. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY GET ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 9-10AM SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE AND AREAWIDE BY AROUND NOON. AS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS WELL
INTO THE REGION TODAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL, 12F TO
16F BELOW (38F TO 50F). WITH GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS RELAXED
TONIGHT UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE, COLD ANOMALIES WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN TONIGHT (24F TO 28F). WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL HUMIDITY, FROST WILL LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
EARLY WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (TUESDAY-SUNDAY): SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A
DEEPENING STRONGER SPOKE OF VORTICITY DIVING INTO THE SIERRA MADRES.
AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATION WILL
BE THE NORM. THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
AROUND MID WEEK AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AS A STOUT UPPER SYNOPTIC TROUGH/COLD CORE
SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES, SURFACE REFLECTION
IS LIKELY, WITH 985-990MB SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL
DRIVE THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE COULD BE
LOW END SEVERE POTENTIAL (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT PROBS) AROUND
THURSDAY, AS THERE COULD BE SOME MEAN DEEP LAYER SHEAR (35 TO 50KTS)
AND SUBTLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS 24C TO 27C) FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA AS WELL.
SYNOPTIC AMPLITUDE DETAILS ARE IN AGREEMENT BUT WITH LOW PROBS,
HOLDING OFF ANY MENTION IN HWO GRAPHICS. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 16Z AND APPROACH
5 KTS. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 27 56 40 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 45 24 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 43 27 55 41 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 49 27 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 47 28 58 42 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 40 27 51 39 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 43 26 54 39 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/SW
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