734
FXUS64 KJAN 211159
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
659 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE DANGER IS INCREASING FOR TODAY AS DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
WEEK.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
GENERAL RULE THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS
SUBSIDENT, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN FIRE
DANGER TODAY (LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT) DUE TO A
VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER THAT COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THIS FORMALLY IN THE HWO GRAPHICS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MESSAGING WILL EXIST FOR WED-THU,
ALTHOUGH RH SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AS TODAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY: AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND NOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WELL. PER PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION, WE CONTINUE TO
APPROACH RAINFALL FORECASTS WITH CAUTION IN OUR CURRENT DROUGHT
PATTERN GIVEN THE RECENT ERRANT AND OVERLY AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE,
BUT IT APPEARS THERE IS GREATER SUPPORT FOR GETTING A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FRI-MON TIME FRAME.
PER RECENT NCAR/AI GUIDANCE, A GENERAL LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED IN OUR REGION DURING THE FRI-MON
TIME FRAME, AND SPC HAS EXPLICITLY OUTLOOKED OUR AREA FOR MONDAY
(DAY 7). WITH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEMING TO BE A
TARGET AREA THIS FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN
MUCH OF THE RECENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
A LOW END SEVERE RISK ULTIMATELY ENDS UP BEING ADVERTISED THERE.
AS FOR THE DAY 7 SEVERE RISK, WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS IN
THE GRAPHICS GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHAKY CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
AT THAT TIME RANGE. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 58 81 59 / 0 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 82 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 81 60 82 61 / 0 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 82 56 82 57 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 79 60 82 61 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 81 62 80 61 / 0 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 82 60 80 61 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/SAS20
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