336
FXUS64 KJAN 240539
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PEAK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS HAVE PROGRESSED THROUGH THE AREA AND ARE
NO LONGER IMPACTING OUR CWA, WITH ONLY REMNANT SHOWERY ACTIVITY
REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVERNIGHT, A
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SHOWERY
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING./KP/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CONCERNING FLOODING THREATS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AT
SOME POINT DUE TO BOTH FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SOAKED GROUNDS,
AND ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE THE PRIMARY FF THREAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV CURRENTLY CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THUS FAR IT HAS
BEEN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THE MCV COMMAHEAD IS HAVING MORE
INFLUENCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR CELL MERGERS PRODUCING
LOCALIZED INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM AS WE
GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A RECENT TREND IN THE
NEAR TERM SCENARIO HAS BEEN FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO BE
INTERCEPTED BY COASTAL CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV, AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT FLOOD THREATS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY TIME FOR THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSES OFF AND PARKS OVER EASTERN TEXAS. AS THIS
HAPPENS, WE'LL SEE PERSISTENT AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT, BUT THERE WILL
BE UNKNOWNS IN THE MESOSCALE THAT ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE MORE
FOCUSED AREAS OF TRAINING DEEP CONVECTION MAY SET UP. THE BEST GUESS
IS THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR,
BUT DETERMINING GREATER FLASH FLOOD THREATS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AS WELL, WITH WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING
RECEIVED GREATER RAINFALL TO THIS POINT. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE THE AREA OF THE ELEVATED THREAT AREA WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT SOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA AS WELL IN THE HWO GRAPHICS.
GOING BEYOND MONDAY, THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE HEAVY
RAINFALL PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE WESTERN LONGWAVE CONUS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY RESET THE
PATTERN, AND THIS PROMISES TO BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THREATS
AS WE GO INTO MID/LATE WEEK. THIS OF COURSE COULD BE A GREATER
CONCERN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH FALLS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
GTR IS CURRENTLY REPORTING LIFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AS OF
0527Z. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 08Z, -SHRA AND LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL DROP FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 12Z.
SHRA WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z,
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR. CEILINGS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 68 80 69 / 80 90 90 40
MERIDIAN 83 68 80 68 / 80 70 90 60
VICKSBURG 79 68 80 68 / 70 70 90 40
HATTIESBURG 82 69 80 70 / 90 80 100 60
NATCHEZ 78 68 81 69 / 80 70 80 40
GREENVILLE 80 67 79 68 / 50 80 80 50
GREENWOOD 81 68 80 69 / 60 70 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/EC/CR
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