411
FXUS64 KJAN 042023
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
(1/5) TO ELEVATED (2/5) HEAT DANGER THREATS PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STORM THREATS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH MARGINAL (1/5) SEVERE
RISKS TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, BUT THE HEAT STRESS
EVENT OVERALL CONTINUES TO BE MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE WITH
MESSAGING PROPPED UP SOME BY THE HOLIDAY RELATED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. WITH THAT SAID, AN INCREASE MCV ACTIVITY WITH GREATER
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE HEAT THREATS A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS WE GO BEYOND TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF
ON EXTENDING THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY. AN ACTIVE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE REGIME WILL SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SEVERE MICROBURSTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT THE MCV ACTVITY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY MAY SUPPORT A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND THREAT, AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE GRAPHICS IN THE MESSAGING.
GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A TYPICAL ACTIVE JULY CONVECTIVE REGIME
IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS MAINTAINED.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISKS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CATEGORY FOR THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
AREA. THAT BEING SAID THERE REMAINS A NOT INSIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AMONG SOME OF OUR WESTERN SITES, WITH A
TROUGH BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD IN WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. FOR THE
TIME BEING CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT TS HAS NOT BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
FOR MAJORITY OF SITES. INSTABILITY DOES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH OVER
CENTRAL MS SO EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE AREA ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS FROM 18Z-22Z. OVER NIGHT GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON CHANCES
FOR MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA, FOR NOW VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR, BUT AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO TOMORROW MORNING
AND UPDATED DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE; DEVELOPMENT COULD BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 91 74 91 / 10 60 50 70
MERIDIAN 75 93 74 91 / 20 60 30 70
VICKSBURG 75 91 75 91 / 10 60 40 60
HATTIESBURG 75 92 74 91 / 20 60 20 70
NATCHEZ 75 91 74 91 / 30 60 30 60
GREENVILLE 75 93 74 91 / 10 50 40 50
GREENWOOD 74 93 74 92 / 20 50 50 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/OAJ
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