485
FXUS64 KJAN 011430 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
REST OF TODAY...WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDING JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT'S ALREADY BEGUN MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. A STRAY RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FALL OVER A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. FORTUNATELY, MOST AREAS WILL SIMPLY SEE SOME VERY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CLOUDS, RAIN, AND
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO COMBINE TO KEEP
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
MORNING'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
NEAR TERM: OUR AREA REMAINS FIRMLY ON THE COOL/STABLE SIDE OF A
FRONT THAT HAS NOW STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. A BROAD
UPPER JET STREAK EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
IS INCITING CONTINUED LIFT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, RESULTING IN
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THAT
REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY, WITH A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP OUR
ENTIRE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENT, KEEPING ANY CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF US.
STILL, SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AND
MAINLY CLOSER TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1- 2", WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3"
POSSIBLE. WITH THIS FALLING OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, THIS
IS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKE THE VERY BENEFICIAL STEADY RAINFALL OUR
AREA NEEDS OVER A CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN LINGERING THROUGHOUT TODAY, IT IS LIKELY TEMPS WILL
UNDERPERFORM AGAIN, SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A COOLER
NORTHERLY BREEZE TO FOLLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
POINT IN THIS STRETCH, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE.
HOWEVER, MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE THREE DAYS A ROW
IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND
INCOMING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO TAKE SHAPE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THAT SYSTEM PROGRESSES TOWARD US THROUGH
MIDWEEK, IT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS AROUND
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT IT IS MUCH TO SOON TO HAVE ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT THREAT. KEEP CHECKING BACK AS WE GET
A CLEARER PICTURE OF HOW THAT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM TVR - JAN - MEI AND SOUTH, WHERE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT. PERIODIC TS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT HEZ-HBG-PIB. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN HEAVIER
RAIN. FARTHER NORTH, CEILINGS MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS EVEN WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHTER RAIN. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM JAN TO MEI AND SOUTH. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 50 70 46 / 90 100 10 0
MERIDIAN 62 49 70 43 / 90 100 20 0
VICKSBURG 61 50 70 46 / 90 100 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 51 70 45 / 100 100 20 0
NATCHEZ 60 50 70 46 / 100 100 0 0
GREENVILLE 67 52 71 47 / 50 70 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 51 72 45 / 50 70 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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