119
FXUS64 KJAN 131124 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AND AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER-MID 90S HEAT AND LOW AFTERNOON RHS OF LESS THAN
30% ACROSS THE EAST. A "LIMITED" FIRE DANGER THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING, RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREATE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS/LA ACROSS THE HWY-84 CORRIDOR. TO
THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA, RETURNING MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MOVING INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, BUT WILL STILL BE COMBATING THE DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. /KP/
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MEAN RIDGE AROUND 592-594DM THAT WILL FLATTEN AND BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
WIND GUSTS UNDER 10 KTS. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS,
SKY COVER WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
SEVERAL SPOTS COULD SEE SOME NEW RECORD TEMPERATURES BEING SET
ESPECIALLY IF WARMER GUIDANCE OVER PERFORMS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN QUIET WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
REGARDING THE FIRE DANGER FOR THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK, THERE IS
ENOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING AND DROP IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL
LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DIP (25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) MOST AFTERNOONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SO "LIMITED" FIRE DANGER SHOULD PERSIST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LIGHT RAIN TOTALS FROM
ISAIAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
LIMIT GREATER FIRE CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STOUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND WILL
CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. AT THE VERY
LEAST, COOL DOWN STILL REMAINS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (48-52F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (53-57F) TO THE
SOUTH. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION AND
LONGSTANDING LIMITED RAINFALL WILL HELP INCREASE FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. 1035-1045MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDWEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT WIND/WIND GUSTS
REACHING 30 MPH AT TIMES. A "LIMITED" GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED FOR THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
RELATIVELY RARE (FOR OUR AREA) MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR FIRE CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXPECTED DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WILL BE
REFINING OUR MESSAGING FOR FIRE DANGER LOCALLY, BUT DO EXPECT MORE
ELEVATED WORDING FOR FRIDAY'S FIRE DANGER AFTER SEVERAL LOWER
END/"LIMITED" DAYS THIS WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
(POPS AROUND 15%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST MS,
SOUTHWEST MS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA HEADING INTO MONDAY.
/KP/CR/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES, EXCEPT
FOR ONGOING BR OR FG/STRATUS NEAR KHBG AND KPIB AROUND THROUGH
13/14Z TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM, GENERALLY
BELOW 10MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15MPH. ADDITIONAL ROUND
OF BR OR FG AND LOW STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 14/10Z
WEDNESDAY, FOCUSED NEAR THE PINE BELT (HBG AND PIB). /NF/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 65 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 92 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 64 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 94 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 93 64 94 61 / 10 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 71 94 64 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 94 68 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ063>066-
072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/CR/NF/DC
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