100
FXUS64 KJAN 220014 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH
DAY.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, WITH COOL OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING STEADY CONTROL OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS AND SOUTH MS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. SKY COVER
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR WHOLE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDNIGHT. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S. /CR/
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND, LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A WEDGING EFFECT AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CAUSE A LITTLE DIP IN DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
OUR CWA PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK. ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS/FUELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
(DAILY MAX ERCS IN THE 90TH+ PERCENTILE) WITH RHS FALLING TO 20-30
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND AT TIMES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH
IS WHY WE DON'T IMMINENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE CRITICAL SITUATION
WORTHY OF RED FLAG PRODUCTS. WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WX
HEADLINE REGARDING INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
THIS WEEK IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORESTRY AGENCIES AND THE U.S.
FOREST SERVICE. FURTHERMORE, THE AREAWIDE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FIRE
WX CONCERN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A "ELEVATED" THREAT.
GREAT CAUTION IS STILL WARRANTED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, OR IT SHOULD BE AVOIDED ALTOGETHER, AS LOCAL BURN
BANS CONTINUE TO BE ADDED ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNS IN
LATER FORECASTS OF STRONGER WIND, MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE ELEVATED
ACCORDINGLY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS
OUR CWA BY WEDNESDAY. /CR/DL/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 47 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 84 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 48 84 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 49 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 82 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/DL/22
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