277
FXUS64 KJAN 100656
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
156 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT-TERM
WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION REMAIN OUR
PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRESS FINE OR DEAD VEGETATION, THOUGH MOST
VEGETATION IS IN A STATE OF GREENUP AT THIS TIME. CARE SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO AVOID SPARKS OR FLAMES NEAR ANY DRIED VEGETATION. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TODAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL LOCK IN DRY THERMO PROFILES (PWS
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.9 INCHES), KEEPING EFFICIENT MIXING LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP BELOW 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DAILY, WITH LIGHT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND A TOUCH STRONGER ON SUNDAY.
FIRE DANGER WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST, WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW
80S FRIDAY TO MID 80S TODAY WHILE LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S IN THE
EAST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY WARMING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT STILL MIX OUT EFFICIENTLY EACH AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): STOUT JET ENERGY WILL BE
DRIVING A SERIES OF WAVES AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP DRYNESS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT THE START BUT RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM OR SO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST
DELTA THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY BUT MOSTLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL ZONE MAY SAG INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK OR JUST
AFTER INTO LATE WEEK (THURSDAY TO FRIDAY), WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD TO
RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW REMAINS LOW AND DEFLECTION OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM ALTOGETHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS SOME DEEP LAYER FLOW
AND INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS, IF THIS CAN SNEAK IN AROUND THURSDAY. FOR NOW, HOLDING OFF
ANY MENTION IN HWO FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE DELTA AREAS ON THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE WORSENING DROUGHT AND
POTENTIALLY AN UPTICK IN FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE RISE EVEN WITH THE CONTINUED DROUGHT. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (PROBS OF
EXCEEDANCE OF 90F: ISOLATED POCKETS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT) WHILE LOW
TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE EAST TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST DELTA. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (SUSTAINED
UNDER 10MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 15MPH) WILL BE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIGHTER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN MOISTURE MEANS SOME PATCHY BR COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z
FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN 06Z TAF CYCLE AT THIS TIME. /DC/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 82 54 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 83 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 83 58 86 59 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 83 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 83 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DC
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