600
FXUS64 KJAN 310137 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
837 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
- A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
UNCERTAIN.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. WITH IT WILL COME
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
PART OF TUESDAY. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL,
THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS
QUITE LOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH, ALONG WITH, AND SURPRISINGLY, ACTUAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T HAD IN THE
FORECAST FOR A WHILE. OVERALL, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING MUCH OF THIS
TIME, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION. THE RESULTING INCREASED WARMTH AND MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
SOMETHING TO NOTE, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IS THAT THERE'S
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH IS WEAK, CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA COULD BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH
SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.
THE BETTER, MORE WIDESPREAD, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOK TO COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY. WHILE NEITHER OF THESE DAYS LOOK
TO BE COMPLETE WASHOUTS AT THE MOMENT, BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXIST AT THESE TIMES DUE TO IT BEING MORE DRIVEN BY
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT PRESENT, THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE HEADWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER OVER THE
WEEKEND, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA. IF THAT SCENARIO
VERIFIES, NOT ONLY WILL IT RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA, IT'LL ALSO BRING AN AIRMASS CHANGE TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING,
BUT A RESURGENCE OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH MS. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 83 64 84 / 0 50 10 40
MERIDIAN 60 83 63 84 / 10 50 10 60
VICKSBURG 65 85 64 87 / 0 40 0 20
HATTIESBURG 64 83 65 83 / 0 70 10 70
NATCHEZ 65 84 65 86 / 0 60 0 40
GREENVILLE 65 84 64 86 / 0 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 65 84 66 87 / 0 30 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/19
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