851
FXUS64 KJAN 121553 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SUNDAY WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE NOSING WEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW WAS HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS RESULTING
IN A FEW VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND BUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 84. OTHERWISE, A WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S
SOUTH. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THERE'S NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS WE
SETTLE IN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
PROVIDES LIFT TO OUR RELATIVELY MOIST LOWER LEVELS. RAIN TOTALS
REMAIN SUBDUED WITH NO SITE PROJECTED TO RECEIVE MORE THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ARCTIC AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL PLUMMET
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS NORTH OF I-20 AND THE LOW 20S
SOUTH. WE COULD SEE LESS ROBUST COOLING IF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
NOT AS EFFICIENT AS CURRENTLY PROJECTED. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE FOR FRIGID TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A
"LIMITED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN OUR HWO
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 INCLUDING ALL OF
SOUTHEAST AR, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW IN ORDER
TO PROTECT VULNERABLE VEGETATION. EXPECT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE COLD GRAPHIC AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REBOUND AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT AS WE GO INTO THE
LATE WEEK./OAJ/CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND
THIS MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO HBG/PIB/HEZ LATE IN THE
PERIOD./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 48 68 39 / 0 0 20 70
MERIDIAN 65 47 67 38 / 0 10 20 70
VICKSBURG 67 47 67 36 / 10 0 20 70
HATTIESBURG 72 54 73 47 / 10 20 30 70
NATCHEZ 69 52 70 41 / 10 10 20 80
GREENVILLE 63 38 56 29 / 0 0 10 40
GREENWOOD 64 40 63 30 / 0 0 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/15
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