044
FXUS64 KJAN 031814
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT HEAT STRESS RETURNS
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: CONTINUED DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND A BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PAINS. OUR CWA WILL SIT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT RETURN
MOISTURE AND ALLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY,
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO MITIGATE HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS. /22/
TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY:
TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MID AND LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET, WITH RAIN
CHANCES VERY LOW THROUGH MID WEEK AND ONLY RISING INTO THE 20-30%
RANGES FOR MOST AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF DIURNAL, AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WANE OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A BRIEFLY
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AS FAR AS IMPACTFUL WEATHER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS WILL
AGAIN COME IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HEAT STRESS, MAINLY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CURRENTLY RESIDING
ACROSS THE CWA WAS BEEN A NICE AND WELCOMED RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY
THROUGH THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS DEW POINTS
CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 90S,
WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING LEVELS WHERE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF PERHAPS A "HEAT ADVISORY" WILL NEED TO BE HOISTED
FOR PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. /19/86/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 70 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 68 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/LP/22
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