498
FXUS64 KJAN 140332 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MOST NIGHTS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
EVENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OVER EAST
TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS GENERATING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER OUR CWA. THERE RAIN
HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI FASTER THAN FORECAST SO POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED, GENERALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE WHEN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ENDING FROM THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT SO NO RUNOFF OR RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TUESDAY...
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAJA LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS EJECTING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF RESULTING IN WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FLOW OVER SOUTH MS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, WITH POPS
AROUND 20-35%. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL REMAIN QUIET. CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST ACROSS OUR CWA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S
AREAWIDE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING/LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS
PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY AIR. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FREEZING/SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND, DANGEROUS COLD IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, HOWEVER GTR WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR COLD
HEADLINES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY HWO GRAPHICS FOR RIGHT
NOW.
WE WILL START TO SEE A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE COLD REGIME AROUND MID
NEXT WEEK TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS FUTURE GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 1028MB SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SFC HIGH
WILL HELP BRING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA ALLOWING
FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS TO RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING GOLDEN TRIANGLE (LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S), BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RETURN
ACROSS OUR AREA HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES (POPS AROUND 30%) FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 INCLUDING SEVERAL
OF OUR NORTHEAST LA PARISHES. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES AT 2330Z BUT SHRA
NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS JUST SW OF HEZ WL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND BRING LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS. AFTER
12Z A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NW AND BRING SHRA AND LOWER
FLYING CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN AND CNTRL TAF SITES. A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW FOLLOWED BY GUSTS 18-22KTS WL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS AND THE GUSTY WIND WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 57 28 44 / 20 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 41 56 26 44 / 20 20 10 0
VICKSBURG 44 58 29 45 / 20 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 43 63 31 49 / 40 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 45 62 30 47 / 30 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 43 54 26 42 / 0 40 0 0
GREENWOOD 43 54 25 42 / 0 50 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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