107
FXUS64 KJAN 030639 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
139 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS
THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AHEAD OF A STALLED
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, AND ALOFT PERSISTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY, WHEN THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BE MOST OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS, COUPLED WITH ADDED ASCENT FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET JUST TO
OUR NORTH, DAYTIME HEATING, AND EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WILL
BRING ABOUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THESE HIGH RAIN CHANCES, THE WEEKEND WON'T BE A WASHOUT.
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. IT'LL BE
MORE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE ADVERTISED 48-72 HOUR QPF
ACROSS THE CWA IS A LITTLE MISLEADING. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COULD INDEED SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY, THESE HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
NOT WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE QPF SUGGESTS. THAT BEING
SAID, IN THESE LOCALIZED AREAS THAT INDEED SEE CONVECTION WHERE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND/OR TRAINING OF
SUCH CONVECTION, AND POTENTIALLY OBSERVE THOSE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS A RESULT, THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE. THESE QUIET AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS.
THESE COULD RESULT IN BRIEF VISBY REDUCTIONS AT IMPACTED SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. FOG SHOULD
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT CEILINGS COULD LINGER LATE
INTO THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH MS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 81 66 84 / 60 80 10 0
MERIDIAN 68 79 65 83 / 80 90 30 10
VICKSBURG 67 81 63 83 / 70 70 10 0
HATTIESBURG 69 81 67 84 / 90 90 40 10
NATCHEZ 68 81 66 84 / 70 80 10 10
GREENVILLE 66 82 61 83 / 40 50 0 0
GREENWOOD 66 82 61 84 / 50 50 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/19/DL/22
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