336
FXUS64 KJAN 262338 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THROUGH SATURDAY: THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1020MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT WAS PROVIDING AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST-SOUTH FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HAD A
1004MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND THE SURFACE
LOW TO OUR NORTH WAS HELPING RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20MPH ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND
TO SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER OUR REGION BUT THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SIGNS OF FURTHER EROSION. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND HELP LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH. THE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP
FASTER SATURDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. /22/
LONG-TERM REMAINS ON TRACK...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN A
SURGE OF POLAR AIR. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY, WITH PASSAGE NOW MOST LIKELY OCCURRING MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY MONDAY WITH READINGS LIKELY REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FORMAL
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF PROLONGED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HOVERING IN THE
MID 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE BOTH NIGHTS. WHILE THESE
TEMPERATURES DO INDEED SIGNAL A NOTABLE COLD SPELL, DANGEROUS COLD
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING MUCH FURTHER AHEAD, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE RECOVER STEADY
WARMTH (LOWS MID TO UPPER 50S; HIGHS IN THE 60S) UNTIL A FEW DAYS
AFTER NEW YEAR'S DAY./OAJ/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 07Z WHEN IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LOWERED CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE 10 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 76 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 76 58 77 / 10 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 77 61 78 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 63 79 59 79 / 0 10 0 10
NATCHEZ 64 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 63 75 62 75 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 63 76 62 77 / 10 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/LP
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