098
FXUS64 KJAN 030812
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: WARMER WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST DROP SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST
OF OUR CWA WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST AS WELL BUT CONTINUE TO
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP RESULT
IN WARMER MORNING LOWS MONDAY. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WITH THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS SUPPRESSING THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE DRY AIR EARLY THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A
SPOKE OF SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY CAUSES THE TROUGH OUT WEST TO DIG,
WHICH WILL REINFORCE RIDGING OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WOULD PHASE
WITH THIS PIECE, BUT GUIDANCE TONIGHT HAS COME IN LESS PHASED AND
THE UPPER LOW IS LEFT BEHIND. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, HOWEVER REMNANT DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE
HIGH LINGERS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH DIRECTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST TOWARDS TEXAS, THE
WINDOW FOR QUALITY MOISTURE RECOVERY APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. ALL
THE WHILE, WITH THE REINFORCED RIDGING DEFLECTING THE MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAX TO THE NORTH AND WEST, MAIN ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS INTRODUCES A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. GUIDANCE
TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FRONT OUTRUNNING RAIN AND
STORMS, SO IT MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE ANAFRONTAL FURTHER OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, DURING A WINDOW ROUGHLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME, MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE AMPLE AND SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SLIGHT RISK AND MONITOR. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT AT THIS TIME TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OVERNIGHT, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THIS TOO COULD MAKE THE THREAT MORE
CONDITIONAL AS WELL.
THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE COAST, WHICH LEAVES LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. AND THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE WEAK
UPPER FORCING AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAT THE UPPER BAJA LOW EJECTS THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCKED IN AROUND THE REINFORCED
RIDGE, AS SUCH, LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS
SCENARIO./SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 49 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 78 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 77 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 78 53 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 78 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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