628
FXUS64 KJAN 221214 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WITH LIMITED EXCEPTION, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL
FEATURE BROAD TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL US
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHERN JET STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER WAVE
LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AT THE GULF COAST, THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS,
AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AROUND THE AREA. MCV ACTIVITY, SUCH AS WITH THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, COULD FOCUS MORE INTENSE RAINFALL OVER A
SMALL AREA AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD WITH THIS KIND OF
PATTERN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME, BUT THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN OUR REGION COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES. MORE SPECIFICALLY
TODAY, IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY MORNING SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTH,
CONVERGENCE AND HEATING IN THE MOISTURE PLUME LEFT OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
RA AND TSRA IMPACTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. VFR TO PREVAIL BY 15Z, WITH DEVELOPING SHRA AND TSRA
IMPACTING THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SITES INTO LATER PARTS OF THE
PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 68 85 68 / 80 50 80 70
MERIDIAN 81 68 85 68 / 90 50 90 50
VICKSBURG 83 68 85 68 / 70 50 80 70
HATTIESBURG 83 70 86 70 / 90 50 80 50
NATCHEZ 83 69 85 69 / 70 40 70 70
GREENVILLE 82 67 84 68 / 80 50 40 60
GREENWOOD 82 67 85 68 / 80 70 50 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF
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