946  
FXUS64 KJAN 130544  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1244 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION BUT HIGH  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL  
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING CONVECTION AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE 00Z SUN JAN  
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.03IN. THUS, A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS  
OUR CWA WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOWER  
RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID  
90S, HEAT STRESS CONCERNS WILL INCREASE IN OUR WEST ALONG THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ESPECIALLY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE  
AROUND 105F AGAIN SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA  
WITH A "LIMITED" FOR HEAT STRESS IN OUR GRAPHICS FOR NOW. /22/  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS  
AND THE EURO SHOW THE SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO GRADUALLY  
RETROGRADE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH  
NORTH INTO THE REGION, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR  
CWA, WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEAT CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOKING AT CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, IT  
APPEARS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105-110 RANGE NEXT  
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN DAYTIME HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE  
MID/UPPER 90S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (A FEW  
SPOTS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 80S). THIS WILL  
LIKELY RESULT IN THE "LIMITED" RISK FOR HEAT STRESS BEING UPGRADED  
TO AN "ELEVATED" RISK IN OUR HWO GRAPHICS FOR THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY  
TIMEFRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK MAY BE  
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. FURTHERMORE, HEAT  
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE  
HEAT GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DISSIPATING BY THE EVENING  
HOURS EACH DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. /CR/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR  
THE MOST PART. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR TO  
PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY STRATUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND  
WITH BRIEF IMPACTS FROM DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSRA. /EC/  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
JACKSON 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 40 0  
MERIDIAN 94 73 95 74 / 30 20 30 0  
VICKSBURG 93 75 94 75 / 30 20 30 0  
HATTIESBURG 96 75 97 75 / 30 20 40 0  
NATCHEZ 92 73 94 74 / 40 20 40 0  
GREENVILLE 92 74 93 74 / 30 20 40 0  
GREENWOOD 94 74 94 75 / 30 20 40 0  
 
 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
EC/OAJ/22/CR/  
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