351
FXUS64 KJAN 050555
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING WEST
ACROSS HWY 84. THIS IS DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGING A RENEWED
SURGE OF MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READING VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105-110 DEGREES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY EXCEED
110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKEWISE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL OF NORTHEAST LA, UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 84. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S. AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH HREF FOG GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW
PROBABILITIES (AROUND 10-20%) OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM THE REFS TO SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. FOG GRAPHICS WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT HIGHLIGHTED
BY HREF DENSE FOG GUIDANCE, HOWEVER SHALLOW PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AFTER DAWN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER,
THOUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN
BACK AGAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIMITED TO ELEVATED HEAT
STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HELP KEEP PARTS OF
OUR CWA UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. REGARDLESS, AN HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SATURDAY. AS WE GO
BEYOND SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING COULD BE INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE MID WEEK AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL. LOW STRATUS AND LOWER IFR
VISIBILITY IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS HBG/PIB AND IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING. BRIEF FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THESE SITES
AND SHOULD CLEAR AROUND 14Z. THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD FILL IN
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT
EVERYWHERE BY AROUND 14Z. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 73 97 74 / 20 0 20 10
MERIDIAN 96 73 100 73 / 30 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 94 73 97 73 / 20 10 20 10
HATTIESBURG 93 73 96 73 / 40 10 50 10
NATCHEZ 93 73 96 73 / 30 0 30 10
GREENVILLE 99 75 101 75 / 10 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 99 74 100 73 / 10 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/SAS20
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