926
FXUS64 KJAN 272321
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
621 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WHEN HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION AS RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA,
RESULTING IN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS'LL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT THROUGH MID-WEEK THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN PRESENT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE WARMING
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY, AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT RETURNS. IN TURN, RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
BEGIN INCREASING EACH DAY, MAINLY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ALOFT SLIDES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING WEEK'S END. INCREASED TROUGHING TO THE WEST,
AND THE EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, MAY RESULT IN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE OVERALL INCREASING MOISTURE & HEAT
RESULTING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME
IS CURRENTLY LOW. THIS IS DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN
GLOBAL MODELS, AS SOME RUNS STALL THE FRONT WEST OF THE REGION AND
NEVER BRING IT THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAINTAIN A
MORE MOIST AND WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CONTINUED
DECENT RAIN CHANCES. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 88 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 91 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 88 61 91 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/CR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page