092
FXUS64 KJAN 111929
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT STRESS WILL INCREASE
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: A DISTURBANCE/MCV LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST WILL SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. A BELT OF MARGINALLY
STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TODAY, AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA, THOUGH ANY
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE COASTAL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID SOUTH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY, MEANING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESSER THAN
TODAY.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY, IT
APPEARS INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY STILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT TIMES. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LIMITED HEAT
STRESS THREAT OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO HIGHER HEAT WITH LOWER DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MORE
TYPICAL OF SUMMER. WITH A MUGGY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, HEAT
INDICES MAY BEGIN RISING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH DAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRIVEN MORE BY HIGHER TEMPS, AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S IN MANY AREAS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED
HEAT STRESS THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME HEAT STRESS RELIEF.
THERE IS INCREASING GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN DRIER EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WEDGING AROUND THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING A BENEFICIARY OF THIS REGIME, SO IT MAY
STILL BE QUITE HOT FROM THE MS RIVER WEST. WE'LL KEEP OUR FINGERS
CROSSED FOR ANY POTENTIAL BREAK FROM THIS MUGGY WEATHER. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED -SHRA GETTING AN EARLY START ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SE AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE PSBL ACROSS THE CNTRL BY 13Z. CIGS WL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS
THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND
SOUTH. THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 0Z SAT AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. AFTER 06Z MVFR CIGS
WL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWER TO IFR OVER
THE SE BY 09Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 93 72 95 / 20 30 10 20
MERIDIAN 70 91 71 95 / 10 50 10 20
VICKSBURG 72 94 73 95 / 10 20 0 20
HATTIESBURG 72 92 72 94 / 30 50 10 40
NATCHEZ 72 94 73 95 / 10 20 10 20
GREENVILLE 72 96 73 98 / 30 40 0 10
GREENWOOD 70 95 72 97 / 30 40 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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