249
FXUS64 KJAN 070543 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THOUGH PROBABILITY GUIDANCE FOR DENSE
FOG IS QUITE LOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, LAMP PROBABILITIES FOR
AREAS OF FOG ARE DECENTLY HIGH. THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY REFLECTED IN
THE FORECAST, BUT WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW IT OVER A
SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENTS ARE PLANNED. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TOOK PLACE TODAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH
DOWNBURSTS OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, THEN EXPECT QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES/HEAT STRESS
REMAIN ELEVATED/LIMITED AS ADVERTISED, AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS MESSAGING. IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT AND THIS
WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE, BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE REFS
SHOWING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IN SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INCLUDING THE LOWER PINE BELT, SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
SEABREEZE FRONT COULD INCREASE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES
THERE. /EC/
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY): THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A DEEPENING MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST STATES CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE/HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND (72F TO 77F). COMBINED WITH
SEASONABLE WARMTH (HIGHS 93F TO 96F), HEAT STRESS WILL ONLY SPREAD
AND INCREASE IN AREA, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HWO
GRAPHIC LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED THE THREAT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY). FURTHER REFINEMENTS AND HEAT HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THIS THE WEEKEND (PWS IN THE 1.7 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK). RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SUMMERTIME
VARIETY (DIURNALLY INDUCED) THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED COVERAGE (20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE)
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE PINE BELT, WITH POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR NOTEWORTHY ORGANIZED STORM
THREAT, BUT SCATTERED STRONGER GUSTY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. /DC/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-12Z NEAR
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES, BRIEFLY REDUCING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT AFFECTED
SITES. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
MERIDIAN 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 20 0
HATTIESBURG 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 20 10
NATCHEZ 94 73 95 72 / 10 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 95 75 95 75 / 20 20 30 10
GREENWOOD 94 74 94 73 / 20 20 40 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SW
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