057
FXUS64 KJAN 060531
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE PRIMARY STORY DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THAT OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED HEAT STRESS NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF AMERICA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS,
DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT, THE BETTER COVERAGE OF OFF AND ON CONVECTION EACH DAY WILL
BE DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH A LULL
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION, SOME SHOWERS BUBBLING UP DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WITH ADVERTISED PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES DURING THIS TIME IN THE 2-
2.5 INCH RANGE, RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT DUE TO SAID LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW AND
LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AT THE MOMENT TO INTRODUCE IT INTO THE HWO ON
THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WITH THE ONSET OF HEATING EACH DAY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT'LL ALSO BE DURING
THIS TIME WHERE THE CONCERN FOR HEAT STRESS WILL BE ON THE RISE. BY
THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND, AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK TO REACH AND EVENTUALLY SURPASS THE CENTURY
MARK. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 10Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS
LOWER NEARER TO DAWN, DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR AS LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY NEAR THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
COVERAGE ACROSS ALL GUIDANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, AS SUCH WE
ARE GOING WITH SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 72 86 73 / 70 30 80 20
MERIDIAN 86 72 85 72 / 60 50 90 30
VICKSBURG 85 73 87 74 / 80 20 70 20
HATTIESBURG 83 72 85 72 / 90 40 90 10
NATCHEZ 86 73 88 74 / 80 30 80 20
GREENVILLE 87 73 87 74 / 60 50 80 20
GREENWOOD 88 73 87 74 / 50 60 80 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/19/OAJ
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