186
FXUS64 KJAN 271851
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
151 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ON
LOCAL RADARS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS
EVENING. AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY'S ENVIRONMENT, LAPSE RATES WERE
LOWER AND PWATS WERE HIGHER. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED OUR CWA
BETWEEN STOUT RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPING
WARM MOIST GULF AIR OVER OUR REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WAS LEADING TO
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN SEE A DISTINCT
DIURNAL TREND BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EARLIER
START OF RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THERE WAS
ENOUGH INSOLATION THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE EARLIER
START TO THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL. /22/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK: THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED. AN ACTIVE, HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL FEATURE A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
THAT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL CONUS LATER THIS WEEK. A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A CLOSED LOW WILL HANG ACROSS THE WEST. THE UNSTABLE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL BE CUTOFF OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH, WITH IMPRESSIVE 2IN+ PW VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY POPS LOCKED INTO THE 55 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE
AREAWIDE.
GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVER THE PERIOD.
CONTINUED MCV ACTIVITY IN THE REGION WILL CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS
TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST BANDS OF
PRECIP. EXPECT THE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO BE
MAINTAINED WITH "ELEVATED" THREAT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED DAILY AND RE-
EVALUATED ON A DAILY BASIS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER ISNT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED, IT ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A STRONG TO SEVER STORM
TO DEVELOP PROMPTING PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY DIVERTING PORTIONS OF DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY LIMITING POPS TO AN EXTENT. HIGHS REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL THIS WEEK (LOW TO UPPER 80S) WHILE GENERALLY
SEASONABLY WARM LOWS (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S). AS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, A SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BUT
MODEL CONSISTENCY VARIES ON HOW MUCH RAIN RELIEF IT WILL PROVIDE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES. /KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WEE NOTED ON RADAR DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION AT 1730Z. COVERAGE OF THE TSRA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
AWAY FROM TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 08Z. AFTER
08Z MVFR CIGS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING AND LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z. CIGS WL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16Z. MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT MOST
SITES UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 84 69 84 / 50 60 40 60
MERIDIAN 69 85 69 84 / 30 60 40 70
VICKSBURG 69 84 69 85 / 40 40 30 50
HATTIESBURG 70 84 69 85 / 30 60 40 60
NATCHEZ 70 84 70 86 / 40 60 20 50
GREENVILLE 70 83 69 84 / 40 50 30 50
GREENWOOD 70 85 69 84 / 30 60 50 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page