171
FXUS64 KJAN 052021
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK: THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT HAS LESSENED
A BIT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED ITS GRIP OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE TROUGHING IN IT'S PLACE IS SUPPORTING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE LATEST MCV HELPING TO
INITIATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
IN A HOT, UNSTABLE, AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THERE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MCV MOVING IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND
RISK EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION PER
SPC. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE GREATEST IN TERMS OF THE AREA FOR THIS
RISK, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. IN TERMS OF HEAT
DANGER THREATS, WE SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW LIMITED THRESHOLDS FOR
THE MOST PART.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST
GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO INTENSIFY SOME. ADDITIONAL
HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, AS SUCH A TEMPO FOR TS
CAN BE FOUND IN SITES EXPECTED TO RECEIVE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW MAY SEE SOME THIN FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY ALONG CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN SITES./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 20 50
MERIDIAN 74 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 40
VICKSBURG 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 40
HATTIESBURG 74 91 74 91 / 30 70 20 50
NATCHEZ 74 91 74 91 / 30 60 40 50
GREENVILLE 73 90 73 91 / 30 30 30 20
GREENWOOD 73 91 73 92 / 30 40 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/OAJ
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