413
FXUS64 KJAN 112045
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY: THE DRIER AIR CIRCULATING AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DRY SOUTHEAST CONUS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GREATER WINDOW OF FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FOR SUNDAY. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE MADE
WIND/RH THRESHOLDS EASIER TO MEET FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER, AND
WAS THEREFORE A BIT GENEROUS WITH MESSAGING A LIMITED FIRE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN OUR MESSAGING AT THIS
POINT. /EC/
INTO NEXT WEEK: THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH WE'LL LARGELY
REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS
MORE COMMONLY GETTING INTO THE 60S EACH DAY AND TEMPS CONTINUING
TO TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER AROUND US INTO THE COMING WEEK. IN A FEW CIRCUMSTANCES WE
MAY SEE REMNANT CONVECTION IMPINGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF OUR AREA (SOUTHEAST AR, NORTHWEST MS, AND NORTH LA), AS MAY BE
THE CASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AND ON THURSDAY. AND
ITS POSSIBLE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. OVERALL THOUGH, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL NEED FURTHER FIRE DANGER MESSAGING
BEYOND SUNDAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF GIVEN THAT WIND/RH THRESHOLDS
ARE NOT TECHNICALLY BEING MET, AND RH WILL BE INCREASING. WOULD
PREFER TO TAKE A CLOSER DAY-BY-DAY LOOK AT RH/WIND FORECASTS FOR
NOW.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS SOME HOPE
FOR RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY, THE
PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENT RAIN TO PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
OVERALL NO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO AVIATION TODAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHORT LIVED FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHERN SECTORS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
LEAVING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE DELTA TOMORROW, BEGINNING AROUND THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THE GUSTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
HIGH (20KTS), FELT IT WAS WORTH A MENTION EVEN IF ITS NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 57 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 58 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 61 84 67 85 / 0 0 20 20
GREENWOOD 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/OAJ
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