780
FXUS64 KJAN 281708
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT HEAT STRESS
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO PEAK TODAY
OVER THE WHOLE CWA. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 596DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS LARGE HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOGETHER HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE OF THE CWA
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 110F ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND BETWEEN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTERSTATE 55. OUR WESTERN AND NORTHEAST ZONES
WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106F-110F. AN "EXTREME HEAT
WARNING" AND "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE RESPECT
AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL BE TOO LOW TO BRING ANY RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. /22/
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...
PORTIONS OF SOUTH/WEST MS AND NORTHEAST LA WILL STILL FACE HEAT
CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION
BEGIN TO MITIGATE HEAT LATER THIS WEEK. AS SUCH HEAT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THURS/FRI. A
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT THROUGH THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE SURFACE
CONFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FEW
DEGREE DIP; MITIGATING HEAT THREAT CONCERNS. WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE
WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING INTO
THE AREA OR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A MORE TYPICAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PROGRESS THIS FRONT WILL MAKE THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE STALLING, BUT WHERE IT DOES END UP WILL BRING HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THAT AREA TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 97 75 93 / 0 10 30 40
MERIDIAN 78 97 74 93 / 0 40 20 30
VICKSBURG 78 97 77 94 / 0 10 20 50
HATTIESBURG 78 99 77 94 / 10 10 50 60
NATCHEZ 76 98 77 95 / 0 10 20 50
GREENVILLE 78 96 75 93 / 0 30 20 30
GREENWOOD 77 96 73 94 / 0 40 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-
044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/CR
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