169
FXUS64 KJAN 192326 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THAT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM PRECIPITATION THAT ENDED THIS MORNING WERE A
BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT WE HAD HOPED FOR WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A 0.25 " OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. THOSE TO THE NORTH
AND WEST GENERALLY FARED A BIT BETTER BUT THE COLD FRONT WAS ON
THE DRIER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE OVERALL. THIS ISN'T
TERRIBLY SURPRISING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS OFTEN BECOME ENTRENCHED
AND SELF- PERPETUATING.
FORTUNATELY, SOME ADDITIONAL RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND
CHILLY WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S F.
SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE 30-35%
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RAISES SOME QUESTION ABOUT FIRE WEATHER RISK BUT
APPEARS WE ARE JUST DAMP ENOUGH FROM OVERNIGHT RAINS TO PRECLUDE A
NEED FOR A HAZARD GRAPHIC TODAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH DRY, WARMING CONDITIONS RETURNING. WE'LL REBOUND BACK INTO
THE 70S F FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND INTO THE 80S F FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER RISK BUT THE INCREASED
TEMPERATURE, ONLY SLOW RECOVERIES IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
ONGOING DROUGHT, AND OUR RECENT RAINS NOT HELPING AS MUCH AS MIGHT
HAVE BEEN HOPED, WILL POSE SOME RISK THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
PARTICULARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND:
OUR NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR DROUGHT AFFECTING RAINS COMES FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE THE WESTERN CONUS INTERACTS
AND MERGES WITH A LONG WAVE POLAR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN US AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MERGED/PHASED TROUGH THAT IS SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH LOWERED
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. OUR AREA WILL, AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE NUMEROUS TIMES RECENTLY, BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF TROUGH
INFLUENCE. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO ATTEMPT TO
PERSIST/DEVELOP EASTWARD ENOUGH TO YIELD LOCAL RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN COULD LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS.
THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WERE IT TO COME TO
FRUITION BUT, AS WE'VE SEEN, WHEN A DROUGHT PATTERN BECOMES
ENTRENCHED, A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM IS WARRANTED WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO PROPOSE CHANGES. THE GUIDANCE THAT HAS ATTEMPTED
TO DO THIS OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO HAVE OF COURSE PROVEN
INCORRECT.
WITH THAT SAID, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS
OF OUR NORTHWEST IN A DAY 6 (FRIDAY) CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY OF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING, IT IS LIKELY THAT THAT OUTLOOK WILL SEE
ADJUSTMENTS BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FOR THAT REASON, WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOSTLY A RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE RISK
ON A SPECIFIC DAY OR PORTION OF THE AREA YET. CONFIDENCE SHOULD
MARKEDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THAT
POSSIBLE RISK.
DISREGARDING EXACT TIME OR PLACEMENT, IT DOES APPEAR PROBABLE THAT
SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA WILL SEE A LOWER-END RISK FOR STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS AS THAT
TROUGH, POSSIBLY MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
IT, AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 35 KNOTS AMID A WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS STATED, WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR A DAY 6/7 FORECAST GIVEN IT
IS PREDICATED ON THE MERGER OF TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT ARE NOT WELL
SAMPLED TO THIS POINT IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THIS WOULD
REPRESENT A MEANINGFUL DEPARTURE FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT TREND. /86/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 44 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 45 78 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 45 80 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 47 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 50 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/LP/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page