531
FXUS64 KJAN 101127
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
627 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK.
- AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL TREND LOWER BY MID WEEK, AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS MORNING, BUT THE BERMUDA HIGH IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN OUR REGION AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE
GULF COAST. AS IT TREKS WESTWARD THIS WEEK, IT WILL BECOME A
STRONGER LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES WILL PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, SO INCREASING
HEAT WILL PUSH OUR DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE RELIABLY OVER 105
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ONWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SPOTTY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. DRIER AIR
WILL WRAP FROM THE GULF AND SOUTHWESTERN US AS THE RIDGE BECOMES
MORE PREVALENT, AND PWAT VALUES WILL FALL CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES BY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A NEW SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH, AND THE STOUT RIDGE AND
DEEP MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
DANGEROUS HEAT (HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 110
DEGREES) BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO
THE MID OR UPPER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK, WORSENING HEAT STRESS FOR
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
HUMIDITY INCREASES THERE.
RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT HEAT IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR
THE ELDERLY, THE SICK, AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO RELIABLE AIR
CONDITIONING. BE SURE LOVED ONES AND NEIGHBORS HAVE ACCESS TO A
COOL PLACE TO STAY IN PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF VISBY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT
WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 75 95 75 / 20 10 10 10
MERIDIAN 94 75 94 76 / 30 10 40 10
VICKSBURG 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 10
NATCHEZ 95 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 95 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ008-009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ075.
NF/DL
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