651
FXUS64 KJAN 151055 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION, BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF IS FORECAST BY MOST GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE THE PATTERN EVOLVE INTO AN
AMPLIFIED WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TO EASTERN CONUS RIDGE
LONGWAVE PATTERN. CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH LOWER 90S COMMON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A MORE PROMINENT
FEATURE IN OUR REGION RESULTING IN GREATER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; DAYBREAK WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY, AND PICK UP SPEED WHICH IS REPRESENTED
IN THE TAF FOR THOSE SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS MAY END UP SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE DAYTIME BUT REMAIN FAIRLY GENTLE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THERE MAY EVEN BE GUSTS NEAR AND AROUND THE MS DELTA
AFTER 21Z BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN SUBDUED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION
AT THIS TIME./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 67 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 84 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 88 69 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 86 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 88 68 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 89 71 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 87 70 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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