111
FXUS64 KJAN 151111
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
611 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOWS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (596-598DM) ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASINGLY WARM
THERMAL PROFILES, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
LEAD TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PINE BELT.
ALTHOUGH THE SOME HUMIDITY WILL EASE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ENSURE THAT MOST
DAYS SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX READING VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, NO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE HEAT GRAPHICS FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIKEWISE, THE AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
MONDAY EVENING. THE WORST TIMEFRAME IS STILL LOOKING TO BE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (SUNDAY-MONDAY), WHERE HEAT INDICES
COULD EXCEED 110F DEGREES.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS COULD BE
INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND EXTEND INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY, IT WILL LIKELY START FROM THE DELTA AND COVER AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-55. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT. REMEMBER
TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS,
AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN HOT VEHICLES AS
THESE CAN BECOME LETHAL, AS QUICKLY AS A MATTER OF MINUTES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME MIXING COULD OCCUR,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO SEE AIR TEMPERATURES EXCEED
100F DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE COULD SEE SOME NEW RECORD HIGHS
(AND RECORD LOWS) BEING SET, ESPECIALLY IF THE WARMER GUIDANCE
OVERPERFORMS.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
PERIPHERAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MS SEEING SCARCE SHOWERS AND STORM
COVERAGE, MAINLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME RELAXATION OF THE STOUT
RIDGE WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH
INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE, INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM FRONTAL ZONE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD MAY CAUSE SOME BETTER RAIN COVERAGE INTO EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK. WITH DANGEROUS HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ROBUST STORM POTENTIAL AS THIS TYPE OF
THERMAL SETUP IS TYPICALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST DIURNAL MICROBURST
ACTIVITY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF THE PINE BELT. AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS
DOWN INTO MID WEEK, STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH HIGHS
AND HEAT INDICES ONLY A TOUCH LESS OPPRESSIVE. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN LOW (BETWEEN 15-
20%) WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 25%) ACROSS THE
PINE BELT. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR
CEILINGS PREVAILING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 100 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 100 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 101 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 100 77 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/CR
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