668
FXUS64 KJAN 112357 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
557 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COLDER WEATHER WITH LOWS BELOW FREEZING SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY
AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED, BUT
DID REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS FROM AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. WHILE A LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AT TIMES
AROUND THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR, MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHALLOW
ENOUGH THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1022MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A
1006MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HELPS SEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE LOW, INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY. THE RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS OUR CWA AS IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL HELP
SUPPORT RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THAT ANY RAIN CHANCES IN OUR CWA WILL NOT OCCUR
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT
THAN LAST NIGHT. IN FACT MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT 5-
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. /22/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS (LOCAL POPS AROUND 15-20%) FRIDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL START TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LOOKING
AHEAD INTO SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE MID 60S/LOW 70S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PINE BELT.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVING A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE RAIN.
CHILLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE
GO FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING CONTINUES TO INCREASE A BIT MORE AS MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT POLAR HIGH SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
MS VALLEY WITH MORNING LOWS FORECAST TO FALL IN THE LOW 20S/UPPER
TEENS. BECAUSE OF THIS, A "LIMITED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS COLD HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN OUR HWO MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHEAST AR, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA.
ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE
MADE NOW IN ORDER TO PROTECT VULNERABLE VEGETATION. EXPECT FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COLD GRAPHIC AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT AS WE GO INTO
THE LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO START THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 BEFORE 12Z, WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KHEZ
PARTICULARLY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 40 67 49 66 / 0 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 37 67 47 64 / 0 10 10 20
VICKSBURG 42 67 48 65 / 0 10 10 30
HATTIESBURG 39 71 52 71 / 0 10 20 20
NATCHEZ 44 69 52 69 / 0 10 10 20
GREENVILLE 41 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 42 65 41 60 / 0 0 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/CR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page