515
FXUS64 KJAN 241857
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
EARLY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUED ITS
EVOLUTION INTO AN MCC THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUE IN THE COOLER AIR MASS LEFT IN ITS
WAKE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS ALIGNED WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS ZONE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
ISN'T A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS NEXT
ROUND, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS.
EQUALLY AS EXCITING AS THE RAINFALL IS THE LOWER TEMPERATURES.
THE KJAN TEMPERATURE APPROACHING 2 PM IS 78 DEGREES. THINNING
CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF RAIN MAY ALLOW A LITTLE REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT TODAY WAS WASHED
OUT. TOMORROW IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL, GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN
IN THE MORNING, BUT WILL ADVERTISE "LIMITED" THREAT AREA FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT TOMORROW MAINLY OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES,
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES, AND PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI WEST OF
I-55 AND IN THE PINE BELT. IN THESE AREAS, HEAT INDEX COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON PENDING RAIN DEVELOPMENT.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND THEN IT APPEARS
THAT THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AGAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. A RELATIVELY DRIER STRETCH THEN
HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE PIVOTS TO OUR EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TRANSITION TO FOCUS ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WILL LOWER CATEGORIES AT AFFECTED SITES TO MVFR/IFR. BY 12Z LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES THROUGH 15Z./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 94 73 96 / 20 50 10 30
MERIDIAN 72 95 73 96 / 10 30 10 30
VICKSBURG 72 93 73 96 / 20 40 10 10
HATTIESBURG 72 94 73 97 / 10 30 10 40
NATCHEZ 73 94 74 98 / 10 40 10 10
GREENVILLE 73 94 74 96 / 30 30 20 20
GREENWOOD 71 94 72 95 / 30 50 30 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP
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