440
FXUS64 KJAN 022005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURN
MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM: COOL CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ASSSOCIATED WITH A DOMINANT POLAR STREAM ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE ~ 5 TO 15 DEG
F BELOW NORMAL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARM-UP SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK: LOOKING AHEAD, WE ARE CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOTE THERE IS A GOOD
BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
THIS WEEK WITH THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS
SUPPRESSING THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL OPEN UP
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE DRY AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL PHASE WITH
SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY AND REINFORCE RIDGING OVER THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY.
DETERMINING HOW THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL SAY A LOT ABOUT THE
WEATHER IN OUR FORECAST AREA MID WEEK. IF THERE IS MORE PHASING OF
THE STREAMS AS IS THE CASE WITH THE GFS CAMP, THEN THE PRE-
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MAY BE MORE PROMINENT, WHILE MUCH OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PHASED WITH MORE DOMINANCE BY THE POLAR STREAM
LEADING TO A MORE SUPPRESSED FRONTAL WAVE. IN THE BIG PICTURE, THE
SCENARIOS DON'T DIFFER A LOT, BUT ON THE SCALE OF OUR CWA, THE
DIFFERENCES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
IN ANY CASE, DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH MAY KEEP DRY AIR
LOCKED IN EVEN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH DIRECTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST TOWARDS TEXAS, AS
WELL AS THE REINFORCED RIDGING DEFLECTING THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX
TO THE NORTH AND WEST, IT APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS, AS THERE MAY
BE TOO SHORT OF A WINDOW FOR QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN. THAT SAID,
DURING THE SLIM WINDOW, MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE AMPLE AND SO THIS
BEARS WATCHING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
COULD BE UNACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, THOUGH IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT AT THIS TIME TIMING APPEARS TO BE OVERNIGHT,
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PER LASTEST ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWIFTLY
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE ON HOW
QUICKLY RAIN CHANCES CAN RETURN. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD NORTHERLY AND GUSTY, WITH
SUSTAINED OF NEAR 10KTS AND GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 25KTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND SOUTHERLY BY 12Z SUNDAY. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 46 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 48 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 77 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SAS20/KP
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