470
FXUS64 KJAN 190919
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING
- CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
- A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
ADVECTION FOG IS MOVING IN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS OBSERVING
DENSE FOG IN THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR. DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER NORTH, AND IT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS WE GO INTO MID MORNING. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT, HUMID WEATHER PATTERN, ADDITIONAL FOG SHOULD FORM IN
ABOUT THE SAME AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH FOCUS MAINLY ON
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MS. /EC/
STRONG RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT
AS A FILLING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE WARM
AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN THE AIR MASS.
FORCING WITH THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING, AND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE MORE BOUNDARY-PARALLEL. THEREFORE THERE IS NO
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY LIFTS EASTWARD. MOISTURE RECOVERY
WILL BEGIN ALONG THE TX GULF COAST DURING THIS EARLY WEEK TIME
FRAME, AND BY TUESDAY, THE LOW COULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION.
IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE CERTAINTY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM IN THIS
KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN, BUT THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT TARGET TO MONITOR
FOR ANY IMPACTS IN OUR REGION AS THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TIME
FRAME APPROACHES. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME DENSE AND PERIODICALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE, WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AT AREA TAF SITES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN MVFR/LIFR STATUS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY RESIDES AT SITES ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI, I.E. KHEZ, KPIB, & KHBG. AT
REMAINING TAF SITES, I.E. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, DUE TO MAINLY PATCHY
LOW STRATUS, A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. BY 17Z WEDNESDAY, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT
AREA TAF SITES. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS TO CALM. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 60 81 62 / 0 0 0 30
MERIDIAN 82 58 82 59 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 82 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 40
HATTIESBURG 84 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 20
NATCHEZ 83 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 40
GREENVILLE 81 64 80 63 / 0 10 20 50
GREENWOOD 81 63 81 63 / 0 10 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ057>066-
072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF/19/
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