759
FXUS64 KJAN 011830
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BOTH WILL PRIMARILY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. IT'S HERE WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY FALL
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, THUS PROMPTING ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT.
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND TOWARD DAY BREAK, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STEADILY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION WILL AID IN DRYING THINGS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND, AFTER A WEEK OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS QUIETER
WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO WARM DURING TIME AS MOISTURE SUBTLY
BEGINS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ADVERTISED DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME SEVERE WEATHER
COULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUCH A THREAT WILL INDEED COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. STILL, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IN LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS. FINALLY COME THURSDAY,
QUIETER COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
-RA/RA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH PERIODS OF +RA
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS
OF TS/-TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT SITES HBG/PIB/HEZ. PERIODS
OF LOWERED VIS & CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RA.
BY 10-12Z, -RA/RA WILL DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL
14-16Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 70 46 74 / 100 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 71 44 74 / 100 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 51 72 46 76 / 100 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 72 45 76 / 100 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 72 46 76 / 100 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 72 49 76 / 50 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 51 72 47 75 / 60 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/KP
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