002
FXUS64 KJAN 260108 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MERIDIONAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE MID-SOUTH, AND THE SPIN OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS. THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND EARLIER MCV ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CAN STILL BE SEEN IN
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS. SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT COULD CAUSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT THE
NEXT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE RETURN OF
DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE GREATER HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN
THOSE AREAS. MRMS ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL FROM TODAY'S MCVS SHOW A
SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN OUR AREA FROM SOUTHERN
LAMAR/FORREST COUNTIES TO LOWNDES COUNTY IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
SO ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WOULD QUICKLY RUN OFF IN THOSE AREAS
AND LEAD TO FLOODING. AN "ELEVATED" THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS FOR
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
"LIMITED" THREAT FOR A MORE ISOLATED POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXTENDED THE MENTION OF A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND AREAS OF
SATURATED GROUND. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY:
LOCAL RADARS WERE LIT UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS BEING ENHANCED BY A COUPLE OF WEAK MCVS. THE FIRST
MCV NOW OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND RESULTED IN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THIS
SEVERE STORM THREAT HAS ENDED ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS A SECOND MCV MOVING
NORTH OVER FOREST COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER EAST
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TONIGHT AND LIFT NORTH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR
CWA THAT WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY EVEN
THOUGHTHE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW OF OUR RIVERS ARE ON THE
RISE IN OUR SOUTHEAST SO A FEW MORE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. /22/
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
GENERALLY SPEAKING, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST AND WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST TRAJECTORIES THAT SUPPORT CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AREAWIDE LIMITED FLASH FLOOD. THE
GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPDATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND FURTHER EXTENSIONS
MAY BE NEEDED FOR AS LONG AS THE PATTERN PERSISTS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY BE MESOSCALE FEATURES DAY-TO-DAY, SUCH AS MCVS, THAT COULD
LOCALLY INCREASE THREAT. MARGINAL SEVERE THREATS DAY-TO-DAY MAY ALSO
PERSIST AS THESE MCVS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS AND WEAK
TORNADOES. THE TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 1.5-2.0 INCH
PWAT DOES NOT MODIFY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY AND WE DON'T LOOK TO COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL BEYOND
THE PERIOD. /SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A MIX OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD DUE TO LOW
STRATUS. MOST RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TIME
BEING, BUT STRAY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 82 70 85 / 10 70 30 90
MERIDIAN 69 80 69 86 / 40 80 30 90
VICKSBURG 68 84 70 86 / 10 60 30 80
HATTIESBURG 68 81 70 85 / 20 100 30 80
NATCHEZ 68 84 71 86 / 10 70 40 90
GREENVILLE 68 84 69 85 / 20 50 30 70
GREENWOOD 68 84 70 86 / 20 50 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/NF
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