269
FXUS64 KJAN 230208 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
REST OF THIS EVENING...
QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP. EVENING UPPER AIR AND GOES EAST WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX, SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GULF WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW
60S OVERNIGHT, IN THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND TO THE WEST.
SEASONABLY WARM LOWS (55F TO 59F EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND 60F TO
63F TO THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA) WITH SOME STRATUS
AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SOUTHEAST PINE
BELT, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR RIVER VALLEYS. HREF DENSE
FOG PROBS REMAIN IN THE LOWER SIDE (10 TO 30 PERCENT) SO HOLDING
OFF ANY HWO GRAPHICS OR HEADLINES. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL BE SHIFTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SKEPTICISM
ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF ANTICIPATED RAINFALL, GIVEN THE CURRENT
EXPANDING DROUGHT IN THE REGION, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING US
MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND, BUT UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL
HOWEVER HELP TO CONCENTRATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES WILL BECOME COMMON THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPTICK
BEFORE THAT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR TOMORROW. SBCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS ARE
NOT TOO CONCERNING FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS IN THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING.
FOR FRIDAY, THE APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH AN ATMOSPHERE MORE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS BETTER
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION. EVEN IN OUR
OWN FORECAST AREA, AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LOCALLY, THOUGH WITH WEAKER SHEAR. UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAVORED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST EVEN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPE TO SUSTAIN
ORGANIZED MCS TYPE OF ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE DELTA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
EXTENDING TO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND
SETTLING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES
PERSIST. REBUILDING INSTABILITY COULD CREATE A SIMILAR SETUP FOR MCS
TYPE ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AND THEN FINALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF WILL GET A RENEWED SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH AND LIKELY
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS
THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER (ASSUMING NO LINGERING
DISRUPTIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE WEEKEND), AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONGER (40-50 KTS) TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. HAVING MULTIPLE DAYS WITH A LOW-END SEVERE RISK MESSAGED
STILL SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO, BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. CALIBRATED MACHINE
LEARNING PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ADDITIONAL MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
THREATS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE MONDAY
HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK LEVEL OF THREAT STILL VALID. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TIMING AND IMPACTS AS THIS WEEKEND
NEARS AND DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AROUND 10Z THURSDAY, LOW STRATUS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER SOUTHERN SITES, RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AFFECTED SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z THURSDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 84 62 85 / 0 10 0 30
MERIDIAN 56 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 30
VICKSBURG 61 84 63 86 / 0 20 0 30
HATTIESBURG 57 84 61 84 / 0 10 0 30
NATCHEZ 62 83 63 85 / 10 30 0 30
GREENVILLE 62 84 65 84 / 0 10 0 50
GREENWOOD 62 84 63 85 / 0 10 0 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF/SW
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