083
FXUS64 KJAN 060612
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
112 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 82 COULD
BRIEFLY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACH 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL ALL FOR
HEAT INDEX READING VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY. AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC, AND THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVERTISED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR TODAY. LIKEWISE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING LEADING TO
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AREAWIDE. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SFC WIND, AND A HUMID
BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, A "LIMITED" RISK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY, A QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR
CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S DEG C, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THIS
AN HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 11 AM
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE
IMMINENT, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE RISK LEVEL INCREASE TO SLIGHT
(2 OF 5) AS THERE IS RECENT PRECEDENCE FOR STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE
WITH THE HOTTER DAYS AND ANOMALOUSLY HOT H850 TEMPS. TIMING OF THE
SEVERE STORMS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM TO 2 PM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. /CR/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL
UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE GULF COAST STATES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, SO DON'T EXPECT SIGNS FOR EARLY FALL
WEATHER TO SHOW UP ANY TIME SOON. INSTEAD, WE CAN EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS AND REDUCED
RAINFALL COVERAGE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS MORNING FOR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-20. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
OBSERVED AT HEZ AS OF 1 AM. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG AT HBG AND PIB.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PEAKING TIMING WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH FROM 8 PM TO 9 PM. FOR THIS REASON, PROB30 WAS
REMOVED FROM SOUTHERN SITES, BUT VCSH WAS MAINTAINED UNTIL 3Z.
/SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 74 98 73 / 40 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 99 73 99 73 / 30 20 10 10
VICKSBURG 97 74 98 72 / 30 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 96 74 98 74 / 30 10 20 20
NATCHEZ 96 74 98 72 / 20 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 101 75 99 72 / 20 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 100 73 98 72 / 30 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-
059>062.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ055>058-063>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/SAS20
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