562
FXUS64 KJAN 240521 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1221 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ANOTHER RINSE-REPEAT FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD, AS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS OCCURRED
NOR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR: THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY
STRAIGHT- FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, AND CONFIDENCE IS
THEREFORE HIGH IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES
AGREE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS WE FINISH
UP THE WEEK AND GO INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
APPROACHING 40 DEG F.
OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE, THE CONTINUED DRYING OF VEGETATION
COMBINED WITH EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THIS THROUGH THE GRAPHICS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WIND
SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND BE A SMALLER FACTOR IN DETERMINING
THE FIRE DANGER THREAT LEVELS.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST, WHEN THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN, AND
WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM INFLUENCE INCREASES OVER OUR REGION.
EVEN THEN, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATER RAINFALL SIGNAL
CENTERED MORE TO OUR WEST, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT FOR THIS DRY
SPELL TO END ANYTIME SOON. /EC/OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES DURING THIS
06Z FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL OVERALL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING, WHILE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 51 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 83 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 83 51 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 83 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 82 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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