311
FXUS64 KJAN 111114 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
614 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NEAR TERM: SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL SUSTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER AS WE KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. EVEN
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND
CENTRAL LA EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING APPEAR LESS LIKELY TODAY AS A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS PIVOTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. WHERE
THERE IS RELATIVELY GREATER MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY MORNING.
INTO NEXT WEEK: THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH WE'LL LARGELY
REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS
MORE COMMONLY GETTING INTO THE 60S EACH DAY AND TEMPS CONTINUING
TO TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER AROUND US INTO THE COMING WEEK. IN A FEW CIRCUMSTANCES WE
MAY SEE REMNANT CONVECTION IMPINGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF OUR AREA (SOUTHEAST AR, NORTHWEST MS, AND NORTH LA), AS MAY BE
THE CASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AND ON THURSDAY. AND
ITS POSSIBLE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. OVERALL THOUGH, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THAT NOTE, GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS AND INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LINGERING LOW RH AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED. MINIMUM
RHS MOSTLY REMAINING UP IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WILL SERVE
AS SOME DEGREE OF MITIGATION, BUT WIND IS OFTEN A BIGGER DRIVER
IN THESE SITUATIONS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL MORE PUBLICLY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR
RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY, THE
PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENT RAIN TO PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH MS AND
CENTRAL LA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ERODING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 85 59 86 65 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 85 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 85 59 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 85 60 85 66 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 85 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL
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