223
FXUS64 KJAN 212028
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE COAST AND HELP TO FOCUS SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN HOW HOT AND
UNSTABLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTING MICROBURST WINDS (E.G., 58 MPH GUST AT TVR
JUST NOW), AND HAVE CONTINUED TO MESSAGE FOR A SLIGHT SEVERE
WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT MAY SHIFT INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BRINGS ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SO STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER MESSAGING. OF COURSE THE DANGEROUS
HEAT THREAT CONTINUES AS WELL AND HAVE ISSUED AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY. THE HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND HAVE ADJUSTED OUR
MESSAGING TO REFLECT THIS.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A NW-SE ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT THE GREATEST HEAT STRESS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS DOESN'T APPEAR IT WILL BE MORE THAN A
LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT SITUATION. THIS PATTERN WOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL MCS THREAT, BUT TIMING DETAILS
ARE VERY UNCERTAIN, AND OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT IN THE
MEAN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE NEEDING RAINFALL, THERE ARE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS POINT ASIDE FROM A
GRADUAL UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. ALL
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES POINT TO DRY ANOMALIES. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED VEGETATIVE STRESS, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME MORE
VULNERABLE TO FIRE DANGER SHOULD WIND/RH THRESHOLDS BE MET. AS OF
NOW THE WEATHER PATTERN ISN'T SUPPORTING THIS, BUT ALL FIRE
RELATED INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SITE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 100 74 99 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 73 99 73 98 / 10 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 73 100 73 98 / 0 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 74 99 74 99 / 40 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 73 99 73 98 / 0 10 20 10
GREENWOOD 72 98 72 97 / 0 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>039-
044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-073-074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040>043-
047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/SW
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