351  
FXUS64 KJAN 220956  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
356 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1002MB LOW  
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST  
FROM A 1020MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WERE RESULTING IN A  
GUSTY SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE AS  
SEEN ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS WILL HELP THE SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND  
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND  
RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL  
CONSENSUS HAS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES  
EARLY THIS EVENING AND EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES BY SUNRISE  
FRIDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY THE GUSTY WIND WILL  
INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40MPH UNTIL DIMINISHING BY EARLY  
EVENING. DESPITE THE MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY, LOW CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL THIS EVENING AS  
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE FOR  
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHEAST WHERE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH AND A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED.  
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN ON  
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT  
WILL BOTTOM OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING  
THROUGH THE AREA. /22/  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: FRIDAY WILL BRING AN END TO THE  
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AS BOTH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT  
EXIT THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES, SETTING UP QUIET CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER (HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOWER 70S) THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-  
LIVED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ADVANCES TO THE EAST AND HELP  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE MIDDLE 70S BY SUNDAY. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND  
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80  
DEGREES INTO MID-WEEK.  
 
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS A DEEPENING,  
LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE  
EASTERN CONUS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND SEVERE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE FORECAST PERIOD PROGRESSES. /SW/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
MVFR CIGS WERE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED SW AND CNTRL TAF SITES. MVFR  
CIGS AND A GUSTY SOUTH WIND 20-25KTS WL DEVELOP OVER THE REMAINDER  
OF THE TAF SITES BY 09Z AND THEN PREVAIL UNTIL THU AFTN WHEN CIGS  
WL RISE TO VFR. THE GUSTY WIND WILL SUBSIDE THU EVENING BUT MVFR  
CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 72 54 69 45 / 10 40 0 0  
MERIDIAN 74 55 71 44 / 10 50 0 0  
VICKSBURG 73 53 69 44 / 10 20 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 76 58 72 43 / 0 20 0 0  
NATCHEZ 73 55 70 44 / 10 10 0 0  
GREENVILLE 70 50 66 45 / 10 30 0 0  
GREENWOOD 69 50 67 43 / 20 50 0 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
22/SW/22  
 
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