350
FXUS64 KJAN 031719
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RESUMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ENDED LAST EVENING, LOCAL RADARS
WERE STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF SPRINKLES OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL
SHIFT EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY SUNRISE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, DRIER MID LAYER AIR WAS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES AND SPREADING
EAST PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE
EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT, SUPPORTING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN ZONES. WITH A
LITTLE MORE INSOLATION TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WELL. /22/
SATURDAY: A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED PER SPC, AND
IT APPEARS THE "PEAK" STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE ALONG/NW OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR ROUGHLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME
FRAME WHERE WEST TO EAST WIND SURGES MAY HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
OCCURRENCE RELATIVE TO OTHER AREAS. THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN
REFINED IN THIS MORNING'S UPDATE TO AREA OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE.
FROM THERE THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. WEAK LAPSE RATES, WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND WEAK FORCING
ALL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR GREATER, MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE, BUT JUST
ENOUGH OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN THIS MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LIKE
DAYS PREVIOUSLY, INGREDIENTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
SUB SEVERE OR LOW END SEVERE STORM.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: IN THE WAKE, SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY, COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY/MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN WEAK MOISTURE
RECOVERY SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
PIB IS CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AS OF 1719Z. OTHER TAF
SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A
GUSTY SOUTH WIND 17-20KT WL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THIS AFTN UNTIL
DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF GLH AND
HEZ THIS AFTN BUT NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. AFTER
04Z, PIB AND HBG WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR/IFR. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z SATURDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 82 55 70 / 0 80 100 20
MERIDIAN 63 85 57 71 / 0 70 90 50
VICKSBURG 65 82 54 69 / 10 90 90 10
HATTIESBURG 66 84 63 73 / 0 70 90 60
NATCHEZ 66 83 55 70 / 20 90 90 20
GREENVILLE 67 79 51 67 / 20 90 80 0
GREENWOOD 66 82 52 70 / 10 90 90 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS/CR
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