244
FXUS64 KJAN 191141 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE CWA
BUT BY THIS EVENING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BEFORE WEAKENING. AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE "MARGINAL RISK" FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS
BEEN EXPENDED EASTWARD.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDING UP INTO CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ITS ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA. AS OUR WINDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
LATER TONIGHT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL HAD A RIDGE NOSING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR
MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS ALONG
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DAYTIME HEATING OF
OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUBSEVERE. MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OUR WEST ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES BY
EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LESS THE FURTHER
INTO OUR CWA THEY PROGRESS AND CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL END CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
SPREADING INTO EAST MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST IN
THE LOWER 90S AGAIN BUT RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 90S. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE CWA. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 80S)
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS (UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
DEGREES) WILL RUN +10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.
AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION, PROVIDING ADDITION MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL CHANCES WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, REACHING 95% ON FRIDAY AND UP TO
90% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AS INSTABILITY WON'T BE AS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. ESTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM 1.0-3.5 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. RECEIVED RAINFALL WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. /SW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CNTRL TAF SITES
THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL
SHRA/TSRA MOVE INTO THE NW DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD OVER THE
CNTRL TAF SITES BY 06Z AND RESULT IN LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH AGAIN BY 09Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50
MERIDIAN 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30
VICKSBURG 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70
HATTIESBURG 89 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 20
NATCHEZ 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60
GREENVILLE 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70
GREENWOOD 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page