860
FXUS64 KJAN 080903 CCA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LIMITED HEAT THREATS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL BRING A
CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT ALIGNMENT FOR
TODAY. THE GREATER HEAT DANGER THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR, AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAT ADVISORY WITH
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND IT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL FOR TODAY, A SLIGHT MID LEVEL WARMING
AND REDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAKES TODAY'S AIRMASS NOT
QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED, AND THIS MEANS THAT
THE SEMI-PERMANENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER THAT A
SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME, AND WHILE THIS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ALLEVIATE THE HEAT, IT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE BULK OF GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE RE- INTENSIFYING TO PRIOR LEVELS, AND
THEN SOME, WHICH MEANS WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FACING ADDITIONAL HEAT
STRESS CONCERNS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT
PROBABILITIES WERE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. ISOLATED -TSRA MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z NEAR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AT ALL TAF SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 73 95 72 / 30 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 94 72 95 72 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 96 73 95 72 / 30 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 93 73 93 73 / 20 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 96 73 94 72 / 40 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 100 74 97 74 / 30 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 98 73 96 72 / 40 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-
059>063.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/KP
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