592
FXUS64 KJAN 151724 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
REST OF TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT ROTATING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH A STRAY STORM OR TWO, ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTH TODAY, WILL HELP IN KEEPING HIGHS THERE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THEY WARM FROM AROUND 90 INTO THE
LOW/MID 90S. WITH ADEQUATE FLOW AND SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THERE, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AND
AGAIN, A LOT OF THIS DEPENDS ON HEATING THERE THIS AFTERNOON, AS
IT COULD BE HAMPERED BY ONGOING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. THESE OF
COURSE WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE,
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCARCE AT BEST, WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. I'VE ADJUSTED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH TO BETTER FIT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE,
OUTSIDE OF ADJUSTING OTHER HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON
TRENDS, NO FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON THIS MORNING UPDATE.
/19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM, DRY CONDITIONS LARGELY CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL THE LAST FEW DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 90S F. HUMIDITY, THOUGH, HAS BEEN SLOWLY
TRENDING UP AND WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MUCH
INTO THE 50S F AS IN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, HANGING OUT IN THE 60S F
INSTEAD. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECTS OF BOTH REDUCING ANY MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT ALSO INTRODUCING SOME ISOLATE CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. MOST AREAS STAY DRY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES THAT ARE LESS COMFORTABLE THAN WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING BUT STILL BELOW PRODUCT CRITERIA, MAXING OUT IN THE
95-100F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S F FOR MOST.
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO AID IN KEEPING UPPER HEIGHTS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE LOCALLY, BUT A
PERSISTENT CENTRAL US RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WARM, BENIGN WEATHER WITH ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WE'LL REMAIN IN A SOMEWHAT STATIC AIRMASS
REGIME OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY FROM RISING TOO MUCH BUT ALSO WILL PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIAL HUMIDITY DIPS, TOO. THIS WILL
LIKELY HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER DANGER SOMEWHAT LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
BY LATE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE MIDLATITUDE
CYCLOGENESIS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST THAT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY LOCALLY AS WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKLY
VEER SOUTHERLY. INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER/TROUGH
MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO SLIP INTO OUR
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE. EVEN SO,
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR ANY SPECIFIC 12-HOUR PERIOD FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS UNDER 30% AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SOME SHOWERS LIKELY WON'T SEE MUCH. THE
NET RESULT WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED WARM/HOT CONDITIONS AND
DETERIORATING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT COULD BECOME A BIGGER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER (EQUINOX, AND THE BEGINNING OF FALL, OCCURING 1 WEEK FROM
TODAY, SEPTEMBER 22.) LOOK FOR HIGHS THIS WEEK TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW/MIDDLE 90S F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F /86/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION WILL SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES, THIS WILL MAINLY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY PREVAILING RA OR TSRA INTO THIS 18Z
TAF PACKAGE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 92 70 91 / 10 10 10 10
MERIDIAN 68 91 67 91 / 0 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 70 94 69 93 / 10 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 69 93 68 93 / 10 10 0 10
NATCHEZ 69 92 69 93 / 10 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 69 94 68 94 / 10 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 69 94 68 94 / 10 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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