336
FXUS64 KJAN 121153 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (SATURDAY)...
TODAY: DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE IN THE REGION, FOCUSED IN
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGE. DRY THERMO PROFILES (PWS AROUND 0.6 TO 0.8 INCHES)
ARE IN PLACE BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MOIST ADVECTION PICKS UP FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER, MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF HIGHER CIRRUS DECK. MIXING WILL REMAIN EFFICIENT.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLS TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE WITH
INCREASED GRADIENT WINDS. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
EXPANDED THE HWO GRAPHIC TO THE ENTIRE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ZONES. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST, WITH HIGH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S, WITH WORST CASE SCENARIO INTO THE UPPER 40S.
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): MEAN RIDGE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD, WITH MOST INFLUENCE
FOCUSED TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE SEASONABLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES, AROUND THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY, AS 850MB TEMPS GET UP INTO THE MID TEENS (14-16 DEG C).
RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE INFLUENCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER AWAY FROM
US, BUT A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS (SOUTHEAST AR, NORTHWEST MS, AND
NORTHEAST LA) BOTH MONDAY AND THURSDAY. EVEN WITH SOME LOW END
RAIN CHANCES (HIGHEST OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT THURSDAY NORTHWEST OF
NATCHEZ TRACE), MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE DANGER COULD REMAIN A CONCERN THIS WEEK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. WITH RH VALUES INCREASING AND
GRADIENT WINDS A TOUCH LIGHTER, OPPORTUNITIES FOR MESSAGING WILL
NEED TO BE EVALUATED ON A DAY-TO-DAY BASIS AND ABILITY FOR
DAYTIME COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS.
THERE REMAINS HOPE THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT WILL BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT SATURDAY, WITH LOW END POTENTIAL OF MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME DROUGHT RELIEF MAY BE IN SIGHT BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO MAKE A DENT IN THE CONTINUOUS DROUGHT. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS/STRATUS AND
VISIBILITY/DENSE FOG AS LOW AS LIFR TO IFR AT PIB AND HBG, MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR. FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
(15 TO 20MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UP TO 25MPH) WITH HIGHEST IN
NORTHWEST SITES. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS AND PATCHY BR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 13/08-10Z AT JAN, HKS, HEZ AND ESPECIALLY
PIB AND HBG. THESE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 63 85 62 / 0 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 86 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 85 64 87 63 / 0 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 85 61 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 84 64 85 63 / 0 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 84 67 85 66 / 0 30 30 10
GREENWOOD 85 65 85 65 / 0 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page