974
FXUS64 KJAN 251154 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND
WORSEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST TODAY AROUND
THE LARGE HIGH AND BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES. OUR
PWATS GOT KNOCKED DOWN TO JUST BELOW AND INCH AND A HALF PER THE 00Z
SAT JAN SOUNDING. WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY. LOCAL RADARS WERE
CURRENTLY QUIET BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
OUR NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SOME
OF THE EARLY MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR CWA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY RUNOFF ISSUES. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105F OVER MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. /22/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
THE PERFECT WORD TO DESCRIBE THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WOULD BE 'HOT'. DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM AS A STRONG, ZONALLY ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S,
WILL ALLOW FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON, AN "ELEVATED" RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR MOST OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA
PARISHES. LIKEWISE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
OF OUR CWA HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR CWA HEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S. RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE LIMITED BY THE RIDGE
ALOFT, BUT A WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK AND TRIGGER
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
"ELEVATED" TO "SIGNIFICANT" HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES, ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUE READINGS IN THE 110 TO 115
RANGE AREAWIDE. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MONDAY. A HEAT WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY. IF A HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED FOR TUESDAY, IT
WILL LIKELY START FROM THE DELTA AND COVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-
55 INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA
PARISHES. AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AND HEAT STRESS CONTINUE TO
WORSEN, GENERAL THINKING IS TO EXPAND THE HEAT WARNING FURTHER EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS. AS ALWAYS, AT THIS TIME OF YEAR,
PLEASE MAKE SURE LOVED ONES, NEIGHBORS, AND PETS HAVE A COOL PLACE
TO SPEND THE HOT AFTERNOONS AND WARM NIGHTS. HEAT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA (30-45%) ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD HELP BRING
SOME BRIEF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
MVFR VSBY WL CONTINUE AT PIB UNTIL 13Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IN THE NORTH
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA THAT MAY COME
IN VCTY OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN
BEFORE DISSIPATING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 75 95 75 / 0 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 94 75 94 76 / 10 10 20 0
VICKSBURG 92 76 95 77 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 94 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 90 76 95 76 / 30 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 91 75 95 75 / 20 10 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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