537
FXUS64 KJAN 010538
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1238 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND: A CHANGE TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS
STILL ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH HELPS TO INDUCE INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO ANOMALOUS LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA (E.G.,
PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 SD POSITIVE ANOMALIES). GIVEN THE
PROLONGED PRESENCE OF WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT RELATED TO THE
SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER JET INFLUENCE AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THE FORECAST REFLECTS A LONG DURATION OF
HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
WHILE PROSPECTS FOR A WET WEEKEND REMAIN HIGH, THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
RELATED TO THIS UPCOMING WET WEATHER PATTERN ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN,
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PRESENCE AND STRONGER WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEAVIER
QPF HAS SHIFTED SOME CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRINGS INTO QUESTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. REGARDLESS OF THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL, GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, THE RAIN THAT DOES
FALL WOULD BE HIGHLY BENEFICIAL IN MOST CASES.
NEXT WEEK: LOOKING AHEAD, DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SHOULD
SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES THE
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR OUR WEATHER. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD. THIS MORNING, THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO MVFR
VISIBILITY/STRATUS IS FORECAST IN THE TAF, BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE
MADE AS NEEDED.
THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (60% CHANCE)
WILL BEGIN IN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. IN
THE TAF, VCSH WAS FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. FUTURE TAF MAY
ADD THUNDER AND MID TIER (MEI, JAN, HKS) MAYBE ADDED. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 71 91 70 / 30 10 50 40
MERIDIAN 91 69 91 69 / 20 10 60 40
VICKSBURG 93 71 92 69 / 20 10 30 30
HATTIESBURG 91 70 90 70 / 50 30 90 40
NATCHEZ 93 71 92 70 / 30 10 60 30
GREENVILLE 94 73 91 68 / 10 30 60 50
GREENWOOD 94 71 92 68 / 10 10 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/SAS20
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