094
FXUS64 KJAN 091123 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE THIS WEEK
AND WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING RADARS STILL SHOWED SOME VERY
LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z TUE JAN
SOUNDING HAD A PWAT GREATER THAN TWO INCHES. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED TOTAL PW PRODUCT HAD 1.6IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING,
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUD COVER
AND END THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND GREATER INSOLATION TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 90S WHICH IS WARMER THAN NORMAL. ALTHOUGH LOWER
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TODAY, THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE
WITH THE HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER
100S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, NEAR 105F. THERE
WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER AROUND TONIGHT BUT OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WARMER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
PLEASANT SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE ON
THE RISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. AREAS EAST OF
I-55 WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
PARTICULARLY FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMELINE GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLOUD
FREE CONDITIONS, INCREASING TEMPERATURES, AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. CURRENT
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT HEAT INDICES/WBGT AND THE
OVERALL HEAT RISK WILL PEAK FRIDAY-SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW/MID 90S AREAWIDE, WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO POOL OVER THE AREA. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MESSAGING FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEAT TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND. ONCE THE PEAK HEAT THREATS BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE DAY
4 FORECAST RANGE, THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO ACT ON AND MESSAGE
FOR THEM IN EARNEST.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD, AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND AND GO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT TREND WAS NOTED IN THE LONGER TERM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR UNSEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES TO BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS HINTS AT AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WOULD BE RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR MID JUNE, SO
WOULD RECOMMEND MONITORING THIS TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS./CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MVFR/IFR VSBYS WL PREVAIL AT THE CNTRL TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z
BEFORE IMPROVING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 93 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 92 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 94 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/OAJ/22
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