906
FXUS64 KJAN 090703
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
203 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING
NORTHWARDS TOWARDS A LANDFALL THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.
- GUSTY WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING RELATED TO HURRICANE ISAIAS MAY
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS INCREASED TODAY IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACH TO THE GULF COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL GULF,
EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AL/FL COASTLINE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISAIAS HAS STRENGTHENED TO CAT. 2 AT 104MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IMPROVING AND
PRESSURE (975MB) CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. GOES EAST INFRARED IMAGERY
CURRENTLY INDICATE SOME INCREASING SHEAR BUT A DEEP BURST OF
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE. CENTER OF CIRCULATION
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF AREA OF OUR FORECAST AREA, MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE FL PANHANDLE JUST EAST OF THE AL/FL STATE LINE. THIS
LANDFALL LOCATION WILL KEEP GREATEST IMPACTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE
DECAYING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH ALABAMA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND DEGRADES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, A
UNIQUE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND DELTA REGION ON THE PERIPHERY
OF OUR CWA. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DECAYING CYCLONE AND THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW, SANDWICHING THE WIND FIELD AND CREATING A JET
LIKE MECHANISM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH A 40-50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET LIKE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK, DEEP
BOUNDARY MIXING IN THE LOW-LEVELS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR THAT TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE,
MAXIMIZING GUST POTENTIAL AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE. TROPICAL STORM WIND PROBS ARE IN THE LOW
CATEGORICAL RANGE (10 TO 30 PERCENT) BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDED
TROPICAL HEADLINES. FOR THIS REASON, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR FORREST, JONES, JASPER, NEWTON, NESHOBA, WINSTON,
NOXUBEE, KEMPER, LAUDERDALE, CLARKE, OKTIBBEHA, CLAY AND LOWNDES
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AN ELEVATED WAS ADDED EARLIER
AREAWIDE TO THE HWO GRAPHIC FOR GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO THAT BETTER
SUPPORT IN THE CAMS AND HIGH- RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE WIND PROBS FOR
GUSTY WINDS. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PINE
BELT AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM THIS EVENING.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TOTALS ARE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL, NORTHEAST TO EAST MS WHILE LESS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN
NORTHWEST, CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MS. THIS IS ALSO DUE TO WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES/TROPICAL RAIN. AS ISAIAS PROGRESS CLOSER, ADDITIONAL
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED SO PLEASE REMAIN UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WINDS IN OUR REGION WILL INCREASE IN SPEED,
WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER FIRST IMPACTING THE KHBG/KPIB SITES
BY AROUND 22Z TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE, THOUGH
PRIMARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE FROM MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS THE CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 61 72 58 / 0 80 70 10
MERIDIAN 82 59 71 58 / 40 100 70 10
VICKSBURG 90 62 77 58 / 0 20 40 0
HATTIESBURG 83 61 76 58 / 50 90 20 0
NATCHEZ 89 64 80 59 / 0 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 91 63 73 58 / 0 30 80 10
GREENWOOD 91 60 69 57 / 0 70 100 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ026>033-038-039-046-052-058.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-
074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page