436
FXUS64 KJAN 310810
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100F-105F RANGE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING HEAT STRESS TODAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THESE STORMS BEING SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE MONDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: WE'RE OFF TO A MOSTLY QUIET START THIS MORNING,
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS. LATER TODAY, WITH A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AND AMPLE HEATING ANTICIPATED,
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY HINTED AT GREATER
COVERAGE TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EURO HAS ALSO
INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSTREAM LINE OF STORMS TO WORK ITS
WAY TOWARD THE AREA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW HREF
MEMBERS HINTING AT THE SAME. SPEAKING OF WHICH, AS WE HEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT, UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
WITHIN THIS PERTURBED REGIME, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST/
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK OVER NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY, BUT AN EXPANSION OF THIS RISK IN
EITHER AREA OR TIME IS POSSIBLE AS CAM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BETTER
RESOLVE THESE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. BY TUESDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE COULD SEE
STORMS DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME FRAME, A SEVERE STORM OR LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, DEPENDING ON HOW THESE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS EVOLVE.
OUTSIDE OF THE BUSIER CONVECTIVE THREATS, TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO
THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. WITH HUMIDITY
STILL REMAINING HIGH, THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE
100F-105F RANGE IN MANY AREAS. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LIMITED
HEAT STRESS THREAT. HIGHER HEAT STRESS COULD ALSO CARRY OVER INTO
TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: IT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN THAT
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA FROM THE INCREASING HEAT STRESS, WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND LOW TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO CURTAIL RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BEGIN TO
RECOVER FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RESURGENCE
OF 70S DEWPOINTS AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
/DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS AS OF 0526Z TO START OFF
THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
09Z SUNDAY. AFTER 09Z, SEVERAL SITES (HBG, PIB, MEI, AND GTR)
WILL SEE FLYING CONDITIONS DROP DOWN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z/14Z. AFTER 14Z, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA BY 16Z SUNDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD AGAIN RESULT IN A DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR UP BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
/CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 74 92 73 / 20 10 20 20
MERIDIAN 92 72 92 72 / 20 20 40 30
VICKSBURG 91 75 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
HATTIESBURG 92 74 92 73 / 30 30 40 20
NATCHEZ 93 75 93 74 / 10 10 20 20
GREENVILLE 91 74 93 73 / 50 20 10 40
GREENWOOD 91 73 92 72 / 40 10 30 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/CR
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