192
FXUS64 KJAN 012017
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT; WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTH AND
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR 105 DEGREES.
- SEASONAL TEMPS (HIGHS: LOW/MID 80S & LOWS: RANGING IN THE 60S) AND
DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN POTENTIAL WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST THAT WAS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WAS SUPPORTING AN MCS MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS MCS WAS
SPREADING INTO OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA MICROBURST PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST SHOWED
MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERING THE
ANTICIPATED ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS. IN ADDITION LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEFTOVER BY THE CURRENT MCS.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALTHOUGH HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH OR AN EXPANSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DROPPING THROUGH OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, WITH THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE CWA AWAY FROM CONVECTION, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 105F IN MAY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA IS
OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
IT'S POSSIBLE THE CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL LAST PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. TUESDAY A >1028MB HIGH WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES AND GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
ONCE THE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS HIGH/LOW TEMPS FEEL CLOSER TO EARLY
JUNE (NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE). HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEK AND PROVIDE A
RIDGING PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, INCREASING HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, 40-75% RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING BUT
LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH THAT WL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
AFFECT TAF SITES. ONCE THE TSRA DISSIPATE TOWARD 06Z VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL 11Z WHEN MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP. MVFR
CIGS WL PREVAIL UNTIL IMPROVING AFTER 16Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 90 68 82 / 20 40 10 0
MERIDIAN 72 89 66 81 / 20 40 10 0
VICKSBURG 74 90 69 84 / 30 30 10 10
HATTIESBURG 73 91 68 81 / 40 60 30 20
NATCHEZ 74 92 70 85 / 20 50 20 10
GREENVILLE 73 88 66 84 / 50 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 72 88 65 84 / 60 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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