303
FXUS64 KJAN 020557 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1257 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FORECAST ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
INCLUDING ADJUSTMENTS FOR POPS AND WEATHER WHERE RAIN STILL
FALLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A JET STREAK DEPARTS TO THE
EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, THE AREA OF ASCENT CAUSING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL BEGIN TO LESSEN AND
TRANSLATE EAST AS WELL. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES PER INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP. THE CLEARING LINE
FROM NORTHWEST WILL BRING CLEARING RAIN CHANCES AND EVENTUALLY
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT COLD ADVECTION TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES, BUT CLEARING
SKIES TOMORROW SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S, WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AND SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BOTH WILL PRIMARILY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. IT'S HERE WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY FALL
OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, THUS PROMPTING ANY POTENTIAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND TOWARD DAY BREAK, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STEADILY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA. SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION WILL AID IN DRYING THINGS OUT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND, AFTER A WEEK OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS QUIETER
WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO WARM DURING TIME AS MOISTURE SUBTLY
BEGINS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ADVERTISED DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
IS WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT SOME SEVERE WEATHER
COULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUCH A THREAT WILL INDEED COME TO FRUITION,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. STILL, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON IN LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS. FINALLY COME THURSDAY,
QUIETER COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE -RA WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NW AND LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. THE MVFR/IFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 15Z.
A GUSTY N-NE WIND 18-20KTS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH BY 16Z AND
CONTINUE THIS AFTN BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 23Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 46 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 48 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 49 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/19/22
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