996
FXUS64 KJAN 301145 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK:
THE ACTIVE JET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WAVER ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL SERVE AS THE AREA
OF FOCUS FOR RAIN AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOIST
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THIS AXIS AND PROMOTE CYCLES OF
TRAINING STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES AND WILL CARRY A LOW RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THE LIMITED HWO GRAPHIC WILL BE MAINTAINED.
BY SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE DIGGING AND ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OUT, LEAVING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE. THIS WILL ALSO BRING NOTABLY COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLE IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO THE LOW 40S IN SOME AREAS, WHICH IS ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SPOKE OF JET ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE AREA AND WILL AID
IN THE MOISTURE RETURN AND RECOVERY SUPPORTIVE OF A RETURN OF RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TOO SOON TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS, BUT IT DOES SEEM THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG ANOTHER
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THAT MAY AGAIN STALL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
RAIN AND STORMS. THERE MAY ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT CANNOT BE
PARSED OUT YET. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
PERIODS OF SHRA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE GLH-GWO-GTR CORRIDOR,
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AT MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
PERIODIC VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.
BRIEF TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA, BUT
PROBS WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, HIGHER CLOUDS BASES WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY AROUND GLH AND GWO THROUGH THE DAY. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 54 63 51 / 50 50 80 90
MERIDIAN 73 53 65 49 / 40 40 70 90
VICKSBURG 72 55 62 51 / 40 50 80 90
HATTIESBURG 75 56 67 52 / 50 50 80 100
NATCHEZ 72 55 63 51 / 50 60 90 90
GREENVILLE 71 55 66 52 / 10 30 40 60
GREENWOOD 73 54 68 51 / 10 30 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS/DL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page