608
FXUS64 KJAN 021131 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT WILL SWING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOCAL RADARS
STILL SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ZONES BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND
THE MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY SUNRISE. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE
WEST AS WELL. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
THE ABUNDANT INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THAN ON FRIDAY AS MOST OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SITES RECORDED RECORD
COOL HIGHS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NORTH
LOW LEVEL WIND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE HIGH DROPPING INTO THE
REGION, WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK AS MOST SITES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. /22/
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECEDED BY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER TEMPORARY WITH
STEADY WARMING ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION THIS WEEK WITH THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS SUPPRESSING THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL OPEN UP WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL REINFORCE DRY AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW WILL PHASE WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY WHICH WILL
REINFORCE RIDGING OVER THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO RECOVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW, HOWEVER REMNANT DRY
AIR FROM THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AIR LOCKED IN EVEN INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
DIRECTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST TOWARDS TEXAS, AS WELL AS THE
REINFORCED RIDGING DEFLECTING THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TO THE NORTH
AND WEST, IT APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS, AS THERE MAY BE TOO SHORT OF A
WINDOW FOR QUALITY MOISTURE. THAT SAID, DURING THE SLIM WINDOW,
MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE AMPLE AND SO THIS BEARS WATCHING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COULD BE
UNACCOUNTED FOR IN THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT AT THIS TIME TIMING APPEARS TO BE OVERNIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWIFTLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY
THURSDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THIS POINT, GUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO 2
SCENARIOS. A "DRY" SCENARIO IN WHICH LONG WAVE TROUGHING OVER EAST
CONUS IS DOMINANT AND REINFORCES DRY AIR INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS WELL
AS A "WET" SCENARIO, IN WHICH AN UPPER LOW REINFORCES RIDGING AGAIN
OVER THE REGION AND AIDS IN RETURNING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHICH ONE PLAYS
OUT AT THIS TIME. /SAS/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS AT HEZ WL IMPROVE AFTER 13Z. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
GUSTY N-NE WIND 18-20KTS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH BY 16Z AND
CONTINUE IN THE THIS AFTN BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 22Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 45 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 72 48 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 72 48 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 73 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 73 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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