713
FXUS64 KJAN 101906
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS (LIMITED TO ELEVATED) OF HEAT TODAY & SATURDAY.
- "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY & SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REST OF TODAY: THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
WITH ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO THE
AREA. ABNORMAL HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINING UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT,
ADDITIONALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RISK FOR ELEVATED
(LEVEL 2/4) AND LIMITED (LEVEL 1/4) RISK AREAS FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS IN THE GWHO INTO THIS WEEKEND./KP/
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE FURTHER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
YET AGAIN ALLOW TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS/NEAR THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEGINNING SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES
CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
IN ADDITION, WITH A BIT MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND, ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID
UPSTREAM FOR ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE
CWA. THE FIRST OF SUCH COULD COME LATE SATURDAY AS A COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY INTO FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A "MARGINAL RISK" FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOW RESIDES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SUCH STORMS.
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY WEEK, WE'LL AGAIN MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER
"MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT, DUE TO THE OVERALL
TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER/NEAR THE REGION, COMBINED WITH
THE CONTINUED HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE WITH THESE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES, SOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING HEAT STRESS WILL EXIST SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. FINALLY COME THURSDAY, RIDGING
ALOFT REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST IS PROGGED TO
LESSEN SAID RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 10-15KT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 75 91 / 10 10 10 70
MERIDIAN 75 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 80
VICKSBURG 76 94 77 92 / 0 10 10 70
HATTIESBURG 76 95 76 93 / 10 30 10 70
NATCHEZ 75 95 75 93 / 10 20 10 60
GREENVILLE 77 95 76 91 / 0 10 30 70
GREENWOOD 76 95 75 91 / 0 10 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
035.
LA...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
KP/19
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