603
FXUS64 KJAN 061842
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
REST OF TODAY...
A QUIET AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE THE AREA ENCAPSULATED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, IN BETWEEN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHILE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, FOUR CORNERS TO
WEST TX. DRY FRONT IS SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH ONLY AROUND
HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS) ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SUNNY SKIES PRIOR TO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD, NEARLY 30 TO 40 DEGREES F, WHICH IS PRETTY RARE IN
CLIMATOLOGY SENSE (LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF ALL OBSERVATIONS AT
JAN AND AROUND THE SAME PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY).
MORNING LOWS WILL WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS (10F TO 18F ABOVE) TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (66F TO 70F IN NORTHEAST WHILE 71F TO
76F IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST). UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY BUT
SEASONABLE LOWS (31F TO 36F NORTHEAST TO 37F TO 42F IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWEST) ARE EXPECTED.
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL EJECT TO THE NORTH SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND MONDAY.
SEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS SOME 10F
TO 15F ABOVE (LOW TO MID 70S) AND LOWS SOME 12F TO 20F ABOVE (MID
40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY MORNING TO MID 50S BY MIDWEEK). CUTOFF LOW
TO THE WEST WILL FILL AND EJECT NORTHEAST AROUND TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY, USHERING IN A FRONT WITH MOIST ASCENT (PWS AROUND AN
INCH TO INCH AND A QUARTER) AND RAIN CHANCES (25 TO 35 PERCENT).
THIS RAIN AND FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. LARGE SPREAD EXIST IN
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION FOR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD (LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND), BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM DURING
THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ANY
PERIOD FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH LATER IN THE
PERIOD./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 37 58 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 35 57 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 37 58 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 38 63 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 40 63 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 35 52 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 34 55 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/KP
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