944
FXUS64 KJAN 192322 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND BUT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTING IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND AND KEEPING THE GULF
CLOSED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
AS WELL. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
RESULT WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MAINTAINING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL HELP KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS
QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. SKY COVER WILL BE GENERALLY
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH LOW TO MID CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA PUSHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT NIGHTTIME LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DRY AND
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUIET THANKS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT. THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO
THE 40S AND 50S EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WARM EACH DAY. THIS WARMING WILL BE FELT MORE WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS, THAN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. BY SATURDAY,
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. PORTIONS OF EAST MS AND NORTHEAST MS WILL
SEE HIGHS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
THESE INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO CRITICALLY
LOW VALUES, I.E. GENERALLY INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A "LIMITED" THREAT FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOK THROUGH THE WEEK, AS SOME
CATEGORICAL ADJUSTMENT COULD BE MADE TO PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF,
THE FORECAST AREA. QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO
CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AROUND 3 KNOTS. THESE WILL THEN
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 83 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 49 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 82 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 46 81 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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