106
FXUS64 KJAN 242351 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
551 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAJOR ICE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNFOLDING ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ICE AND SLEET COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE WINTER WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE WELL-ADVERTISED ICE STORM IS UNDERWAY IN THE REGION, WITH A MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING IN PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA,
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AT THE PRESENT HOUR.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EVEN DURING THE
DAYTIME. TEMPS AS FAR SOUTH AS JENA AND SICILY ISLAND IN LOUISIANA
HAVE WET-BULBED TO FREEZING (32 F) WITH PRECIP FALLING SO FAR TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE "WARM NOSE" OF AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THIS AIR MASS HAS SLIGHTLY WARMED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KJAN
SOUNDING MEASURED A WARM TEMP OF AROUND 9 C AT 850MB, BUT A SPECIAL
18Z KJAN SOUNDING MEASURED A SATURATED COLUMN WITH 13 C AT 900 MB.
JUST TO OUR WEST, A ULM RESEARCH TEAM'S SOUNDING MEASURED A SIMILAR
WARM LAYER ALOFT, BUT CLOUD TEMPS IN THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BENEATH
THIS LAYER WERE AS COLD AS -8 C AND SLEET WAS OBSERVED WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY OF PRECIP AND
COLDNESS OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PRECIP TYPE
TO SLEET AS THE AIR MASS DEEPENS. EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MS AND NORTHEAST MS, THE FREEZING LINE IS HOLDING STEADY
OR EVEN LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION TO
ICE OR SLEET ALONG THIS TRANSITION ZONE REMAINS THE CHALLENGE FOR
THIS FORECAST.
WEST OF THE TRANSITION LINE, SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME IMPACTS FROM ICE
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IS ALREADY CAUSING ICE TO IMPACT ROADS AND
BRIDGES. AND THIS IMPACT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. IT
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE "LULL" IN INTENSITY OF PRECIP SAY
BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND MIDNIGHT, BUT THE SECOND PRIMARY WAVE
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE SUNDAY MORNING
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS
THE ROUND OF PRECIP WHICH COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF ICE
AND SLEET TOWARDS THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR, WHILE IMPACTS CONTINUE
TO THE NORTHWEST. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FOCUSED IN
SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHEAST MS WILL LIFT INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TOMORROW.
MODEST WIND SHEAR AND ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF
THE DEVELOPING FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE MORNING
HOURS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS. IT'S A
CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT IF A FORCED LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE
WARMER AIR MASS IN THOSE AREAS, THEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE A
CONCERN. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS THEREFORE ADVERTISED
FROM 6 AM TO NOON SUNDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES.
MOST NEW-FALLING PRECIP IMPACTS SHOULD END IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY
NOON TO 3 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH IT'S ALWAYS POSSIBLE FOR SOME SNOW
FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS COLDER
AIR DEEPENS AND DRIES OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS WHEN IMPACTS WILL
SHIFT FROM PRECIPITATION-DRIVEN TO TEMPERATURE-DRIVEN. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS IN PLACE FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE AREAS ALREADY
STAYING COLDER THAN FREEZING EVEN THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE TOMORROW NIGHT
AND 5-15 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME WIND STILL, WIND
CHILLS EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 0 DEGREES IN
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA RANGING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE PINE BELT OF
SOUTHEAST MS. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE DELTA TO
ONLY WARM UP AROUND FREEZING ON TUESDAY, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REINFORCE COOL
AIR IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND TEMPS SHOULD
MAINLY HOLD IN THE 10S/20S OVERNIGHT AND 30S/40S DURING THE DAY
ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE, LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN
OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY THAT WINTRY PRECIP
OF ANY TYPE WILL FALL, BUT THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR THAT AT
THIS CURRENT TIME. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS AS A MIX OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES. -FZRA NEAR GWO AND GLH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
REACHING NEAR JAN, HKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. A MIX OF -FZRA,-RA, AND RA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, RESULTING IN IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 32 36 16 29 / 100 100 0 0
MERIDIAN 40 57 17 35 / 100 100 10 0
VICKSBURG 26 30 14 27 / 100 100 0 0
HATTIESBURG 49 67 22 39 / 100 100 10 0
NATCHEZ 28 33 16 31 / 100 100 0 0
GREENVILLE 21 25 11 23 / 100 100 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 28 11 24 / 100 100 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>038-
040>044-047>049-053-054-059>061.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ039-045-050-055-056-062.
LA...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
NF/SW
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