869
FXUS64 KJAN 202322 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- FIRE DANGER IS INCREASING FOR TUESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THAT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGS SUBSIDENT,
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN FIRE DANGER TUESDAY
DUE TO A DEEP MIXING LAYER THAT COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DURING
PEAK HEATING AND CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS
FORMALLY IN THE HWO GRAPHICS. WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL
FIRE DANGER THREATS IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME. /EC/86/
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH OUR COOLEST WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 50 F FOR
MOST. AS MOISTURE SLOWLY STARTS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WE'LL SEE THOSE LOWS BACK IN THE 60S F BY MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. /86/
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
OUR HOPE FOR WIDESPREAD FRIDAY RAINS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES, HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING
SLOWLY INLAND ACROSS THE THE WESTERN CONUS INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH
A LONG WAVE POLAR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MERGED/PHASED TROUGH THAT IS SLOW TO MOVE
EASTWARD WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. OUR AREA
WILL, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE NUMEROUS TIMES RECENTLY, BE ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF TROUGH INFLUENCE. THIS COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS TO ATTEMPT TO PERSIST/DEVELOP EASTWARD ENOUGH TO YIELD
LOCAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT THAT /COULD/ SEEMS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
/PROBABLY WON'T/ AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN COULD LINGER FOR A FEW
DAYS WHICH COULD RESULT IN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ON AVERAGE FOR MOST
AREAS. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WERE IT TO COME TO
FRUITION BUT, AS WE'VE SEEN, WHEN A DROUGHT PATTERN BECOMES
ENTRENCHED (AND AS FRIDAY SEEMS TO PERHAPS BECOMING A VICTIM TO..),
A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM IS WARRANTED WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO PROPOSE CHANGES. THE GUIDANCE THAT HAS ATTEMPTED TO DO THIS OVER
THE PAST MONTH OR TWO HAVE OF COURSE PROVEN INCORRECT. /86/
PER RECENT SPC AND NCAR/AI GUIDANCE, THERE HAS BEEN A LOW END RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER INDICATED IN OUR REGION DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME. IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE SPC HAS ELECTED IN THEIR
MOST RECENT FORECAST TO REMOVE OUR AREA OUT OF THEIR CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AREAS THAT WAS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY FOR FRIDAY, AND THAT
ALIGNS WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST IDEAS LOCALLY. WITH A COUPLE OF
DAYS OF INCREASED DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWER END RISK FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT SOME POINT
BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT DETAILS ARE STILL
TOO SHAKY AT THIS POINT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IN OUR GRAPHICS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT.
/EC/86/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 49 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 52 78 59 82 / 0 10 0 10
GREENVILLE 52 79 61 79 / 0 0 10 10
GREENWOOD 52 81 60 80 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/LP/22
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