252
FXUS64 KJAN 201148 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
648 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: COOLER AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ROUGHLY FROM BROOKHAVEN TO WEST POINT. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
ALONG A NEARLY STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WAS STILL TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. A SURFACE HIGH
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRY TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT IT WILL
BE THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALREADY IN PLACE THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST WILL HELP MAINTAIN OUR
WARM MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH PWATS AROUND TWO INCHES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES IN
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
BENEFICIAL AND HELP EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DIURNAL, THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTH OF
THE CWA AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO MEMORIAL DAY. DESPITE RAINFALL, HIGH TEMPS
WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION. A
FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS, HOWEVER, ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY WON'T BE FAVORABLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ESTIMATE TO RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SLU CIPS ANALOGS REVEAL SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL ANALOGS FROM THE HISTORIC ARCHIVES THAT SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE BASED ON OUR CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS,
BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW TO PROVIDE FORMAL
MESSAGING. KEEP IN MIND THAT WITH EACH DAY THAT ACCUMULATES
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A FLOOD THREAT. /SW,EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/LIFR CIGS WL CONTINUE UNTIL IMPROVING TO VFR BY 16Z.
ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA WL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND SPREAD INTO EAST AND
SE MS BY 23Z. THE TSRA WL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THU BUT -SHRA WL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 07Z MVFR
CIGS WL DEVELOP OVER MOST TAF SITES AND LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BY 10Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 83 69 85 70 / 70 50 60 80
MERIDIAN 87 69 86 70 / 50 50 50 60
VICKSBURG 82 69 84 69 / 60 40 80 80
HATTIESBURG 88 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 60
NATCHEZ 83 70 85 70 / 80 50 80 90
GREENVILLE 82 67 82 68 / 60 40 60 90
GREENWOOD 82 67 84 68 / 90 40 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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