781
FXUS64 KJAN 160830
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS'LL BRING SOME DRIER AIR
TO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DELTA ON MONDAY, BUT
AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE REGION.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY WARM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT. CURRENTLY,
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES, ON ITS WAY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE A COLD FRONT
TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE AREA, SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
DURING THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WIND SHEAR, FORCING,
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY THAN IN RECENT DAYS, ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES
IN GLOBAL MODELS IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND HOW TO RESOLVE THIS
PARTICULAR FEATURE. STILL IN THE END THERE COULD BE SOME CONCERN,
ALBEIT ONE CURRENTLY OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THIS, SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ITSELF THROUGH THE CWA. BOTH OF COURSE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR
TO IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO BR OR LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG
AT HBG, PIB AND POSSIBLE AT HEZ. ADDED MVFR TO IFR VSBY BETWEEN
16/09-13Z SUNDAY AT HBG AND PIB, WITH TEMPORARY DROP (LIFR) PSBL
DURING THIS TIME AT PIB. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM,
GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 10MPH. A FRONT WILL BRING A
NORTHERLY SHIFT IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, AROUND
NOON IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HWY 84 TO
I-59 CORRIDORS. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 57 79 59 / 0 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 80 52 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 80 60 80 60 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 59 82 60 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 56 76 60 / 10 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 79 54 75 59 / 0 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/
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