781
FXUS64 KJAN 121925
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
ENTIRE PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- "LIMITED THREAT" (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH IS YIELDING MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE VERY HUMID AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION, IN ADDITION TO SOME STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-6.3 C/KM), ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BOTH BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF TODAY'S CONVECTION, AND HAVE
ADDED A LIMITED THREAT HWO GRAPHIC TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL PEAK ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. I
WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT, DUE TO THE
OVERALL TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION, COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EACH DAY, SOLID
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY AREN'T FORECAST
AFTER TODAY, GIVEN THE AGAIN OVERALL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN, BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
FINALLY, THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, RIDGING ALOFT WILL
AGAIN REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL LESSEN THE
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE TRADE-OFF
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO HOT HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS
AREAWIDE EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S SATURDAY. THIS
ALSO CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING BACK SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED HEAT
STRESS YET AGAIN DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
/19/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHT CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THIS OF COURSE WILL AGAIN
RESULT IN A DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF OBSERVED ON-
STATION. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN AT THE LATEST 13/02-04Z MONDAY.
WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING IN THE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION, SUSTAINED AND GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10MPH. SOME
MVFR/IFR STRATUS AFTER 13/07-09Z MONDAY IS POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES,
OUTSIDE OF GLH AND GWO. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS WELL. /DC/19/KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 87 71 87 / 80 60 50 60
MERIDIAN 72 88 70 86 / 80 60 60 80
VICKSBURG 72 88 71 88 / 60 60 30 50
HATTIESBURG 74 84 72 87 / 30 70 30 70
NATCHEZ 72 86 71 88 / 50 80 20 60
GREENVILLE 72 90 72 88 / 50 20 20 50
GREENWOOD 72 90 71 89 / 30 40 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/EC/DC/KP
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