820
FXUS64 KJAN 222133
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PEAKING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WE WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE MORNING MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR A WEAK BRIEF
TORNADO IN HINDS COUNTY AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST, BUT A LINGERING MOIST CONVERGENCE AXIS, LOCATED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-59 AND HWY 45 CORRIDORS, HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONAL
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE RESULTING IN A
RENEWED LOW-END SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IN THOSE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE THE NOCTURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF ~ H850 WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. FOLLOWING DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
MANY LOCATIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FLOOD PRONE AND SENSITIVE TO
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SO HAVE CONTINUED THE LIMITED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT MESSAGING IN OUR HWO GRAPHICS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO RIDGE
LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, AND
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO HELP
INITIATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ONCE WE GET TO
ABOUT SUNDAY, A GREATER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD EVOLVE
AS A MORE FAVORABLE SET-UP AND COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTERACTION TEAM UP WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR TO BRING A MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AS OF NOW THIS APPEARS IT WILL
BE OVER MAINLY WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HAVE
MAINTAINED AN "ELEVATED" FLOOD THREAT IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE, BUT AS
IS THE CASE IN THE NEAR TERM, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL
TORNADO RISKS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
FIND AN END TO THIS WET PATTERN IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS RA/TSRA IMPACTS
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY 08-12Z BR WILL BEGIN TO BE
POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LOWERING CAT. TO IFR/LIFR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 85 68 81 / 40 70 70 100
MERIDIAN 68 85 67 83 / 40 60 50 90
VICKSBURG 67 85 68 80 / 50 60 80 90
HATTIESBURG 69 86 69 82 / 50 70 60 90
NATCHEZ 69 85 69 80 / 50 60 90 100
GREENVILLE 66 84 68 80 / 40 60 70 80
GREENWOOD 66 85 67 82 / 50 60 80 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/OAJ
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