610
FXUS64 KJAN 072000
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT (LIMITED TO ELEVATED) WILL RETURN LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST, THE FORECAST
AREA IS GETTING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN, BUT A SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH MS IS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD, AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AS WE
APPROACH EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, WE MAY SEE GREATER DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LMV TROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THU-
FRI AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ACCOMPANYING THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE AN INCREASING HEAT DANGER
RISK WITH H850 TEMPS APPROACH 21 DEG C AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. FOR NOW, WE WILL MESSAGE
THIS THREAT WITH A HEAT DANGER GRAPHIC, BUT EXPECT THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A HAD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND SENDING A BOUNDARY
TOWARD OUR AREA IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME, AND THIS COULD SUPPORT
A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ALONG WITH
THIS, THE HEAT WOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ALTOGETHER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISHED OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA,
WITH A THIN FIELD OF STORMS SPREAD OVER THE PERIPHERY. A SMALL
CHANCE EXISTS FOR SHALLOW SHORT LIVED FOG TO DEVELOP IN LOW- LYING
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 91 73 93 / 10 40 10 20
MERIDIAN 73 92 73 93 / 10 30 10 40
VICKSBURG 73 91 75 93 / 10 50 20 10
HATTIESBURG 74 94 75 94 / 20 30 30 30
NATCHEZ 73 93 75 94 / 30 30 20 10
GREENVILLE 73 91 74 94 / 10 40 10 10
GREENWOOD 73 92 74 94 / 10 40 40 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/OAJ
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