479
FXUS64 KJAN 152322 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND,
AND WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- BEFORE THEN, DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE GENERAL RULE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
FIXED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
WILL CONTINUE A LONG STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TO REACH 90 DEG F IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
PRECEDING THE WEEKEND FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S F BUT WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S F THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /EC/86/
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT, WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY THE DELTA REGION. THIS SPECIFIC
AREA IS CURRENTLY WHERE THE BETTER CONGLOMERATION OF WIND SHEAR,
INSTABILITY, AND FORCING IS FORECAST TO RESIDE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH SUCH STORMS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND TIMING, IN
ADDITION TO THE TRACK OF SOME KEY FEATURES, AND WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ADEQUATE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO
GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 0.50-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD BE SOME MUCH WELCOMED
AND NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA, BUT IT WON'T PUT MUCH OF A DENT
IN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN A
RETURN TO QUIET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN THE WEEK, WITH DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
/19/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 59 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 59 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 58 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 58 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/19/22
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