900
FXUS64 KJAN 261859
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
159 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AS WE START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR OVER
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR CWA AS CLOUDS BUILD FROM THE WEST. HEADING INTO
TOMORROW, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET AS THE UPPER-RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINANT OUR FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF AROUND 5 TO 7 MB OVER THE AREA TOMORROW WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-35 MPH. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LIMITED WIND GRAPHIC FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..
DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO GENERAL
RIDGING ALOFT. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON
MONDAY AS STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME
DUE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDING UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT. A SMALL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A POSSIBLE
MCS, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL LINE UP WITH THE
SHEAR AND COLD POOL.
FURTHERMORE, SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THANKS TO DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE AND MOVING ALONG A
HUGE FETCH OF WARM TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. IN
ADDITION, PWATS IN EXCESSIVE OF 1.5 INCHES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH SOME MINOR RIVER
FLOODING POSSIBLE, THUS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND
WHERE THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SYSTEM. IF NEEDED, WE WILL BE PROVIDING UPDATES TO ANY
SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD OUTLOOKS AS WE CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
BY TUESDAY EVENING, A STRONGER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHIFTS
EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVING US A SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE AT THIS TIME IS LOW, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, SUSTAINED UP TO 20MPH, WITH
GUSTS OF 25MPH & UP TO 30MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES, AND A SLIGHT DROP
OFF IS DURING THE EVENING. MVFR STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 27/08-10Z & PSBL FOG AT
PIB/HBG DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT CEILINGS & ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS
TO LIFT AFTER 27/13-15Z, WITH A RETURN TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. /EC/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 64 85 64 84 / 0 10 0 10
VICKSBURG 69 87 65 86 / 10 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 65 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 68 86 66 86 / 10 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 69 85 65 84 / 20 10 0 20
GREENWOOD 69 85 66 84 / 10 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/DC
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