304
FXUS64 KJAN 230558
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1158 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WIDESPREAD RA AND AN ABRUPT SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY DIRECTION. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST WED EVENING. /EC/
DISCUSSION
A CLOUDY AND BREEZY EVENING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN, WITH THE
00Z OBSERVED PW AT JAN UP TO 0.77" FROM 0.45" AT 12Z. A NORTH-
SOUTH BAND OF SHOWERS AIDED BY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS ORGANIZED OVER EAST MS. TO THE WEST,
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT HAVE MANIFESTED A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS FROM EAST TX
THROUGH AR INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A
SIMILAR REGIME WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST MS CONVERGENT
BAND AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THAT REGION. IN BETWEEN ACROSS
CENTRAL MS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED TO REPRESENT THIS THINKING. NO
OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE ON TAP. /DL/
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, WIND GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD EASE UP AFTER DARK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AS THE ATMOSPHERE
SATURATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE CHANCES FOR
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST IN SOUTHEAST MS, WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS. AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AND A MARKED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AREAS THROUGH THE PINE
BELT IN SOUTHEAST MS SHOULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD, SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, SO EXPECT
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE A MORNING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CHANCE FOR STRATIFORM RAIN WILL LINGER
BEFORE DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS WORKS IN. WHILE SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP
COMES TO AN END, THE MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING DO NOT LEND TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR MENTIONABLE WINTRY
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. IF MOISTURE ENDS UP REMAINING DEEP ENOUGH,
THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR SLEET TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY WANES AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUR FORECAST AREA, LOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. /NF/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: PHASED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION WILL BUCKLE A BIT
MOVING INTO LATE WEEK AS TROUGHINESS INCREASES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD BASE OF BROAD SCALE
TROUGH, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THIS ENERGY ENCOUNTERS
THE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT OVER THE UPPER TX COAST INTO LA SATURDAY. THOUGH MASS
FIELDS ARE STILL IN ALIGNMENT MOVING FORWARD, PRECIPITATION
SCENARIOS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS THE WEDGE OF COOL, RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ANCHORED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF, BUT
THE CANADIAN SEES ENOUGH MOISTURE/ASCENT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ALONG A WEAK SHALLOW COLD FRONT IT DROPS THROUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS IN
A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO WILL CONTINUE
THIS TREND AS ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST./26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 60 30 49 / 27 100 28 1
MERIDIAN 55 62 30 50 / 85 100 62 1
VICKSBURG 54 57 30 50 / 47 100 10 1
HATTIESBURG 57 65 33 52 / 78 100 54 0
NATCHEZ 55 60 30 51 / 33 100 10 1
GREENVILLE 48 51 30 49 / 91 100 6 1
GREENWOOD 54 57 28 47 / 33 100 15 1
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
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