961
FXUS64 KJAN 121130
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
630 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
HEAT IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS IS OUR ONE AND
ONLY MESSAGE AT THE MOMENT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING/EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE STRONG. 500MB HEIGHTS OF 597 TO 598 DAM ARE
JUST BELOW RECORDS FOR MID AUGUST. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE
AND INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AND BAKE THE SOUTH
INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, SOME OF THE HUMIDITY
WILL BE EASED, BUT ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OR
EXCEED 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
ENSURE MOST DAYS SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOCAL TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGY STUDIES SUGGEST THAT A RANGE OF
850MB TEMPERATURES OF 21-24C WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRETTY REASONABLY IN THE 97 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE. OFFICIAL FORECAST
VALUES ARE ON THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE, SO WOULD CAUTIOUSLY SAY
THAT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD HIT THE 100 DEGREE MARK
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DEEPER MIXING WOULD PUSH THE DEW POINTS
SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THE 105+ HEAT INDEX
VALUES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION AND
INCREASE OF MESSAGING TO "SIGNIFICANT" RISK OF DANGEROUS HEAT
(110+ HEAT INDEX OR 105+ AIR TEMPERATURE) AS WE MOVE INTO LATE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT, AND
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS TO BE
ISSUED OVER THE COMING DAYS.\
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO NON-EXISTANT OVER THE 7 DAY STRETCH, BUT
STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT TIMES.
/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VERY ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
/DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 97 77 98 76 / 0 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 98 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 98 76 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 98 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
NF/DL
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