687
FXUS64 KJAN 122022
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND: AS ANTICIPATED PREVIOUSLY, STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURSTS WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
NEAR 27 DEG C AND DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG IS SUPPORTING FEW INTENSE
STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND THE STORM THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
TODAY, AND WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE MICROBURST
THREATS. OTHERWISE, DANGEROUS HEAT IS ON THE INCREASE AND WE HAVE
MOVED FORWARD WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MAINLY THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
EXCEED 105. /EC/
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, TEMPS WILL
TREND UPWARD AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. THIS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
HUMID, THOUGH WE EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING DAYTIME MIXING AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL WITH CONDITIONS
BEING SO WARM, HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS
EARLY AS TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST MS/NORTH LA/SOUTHEAST AR AND OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA,
AND WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASING HEAT STRESS CONCERNS
IN GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY: BY MID TO LATE WEEK, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY THANKS TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE SURFACE HIGH, USHERING IN A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT HOT DAYS, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S - PERHAPS EVEN THE 50S AS TIMES DURING DAYTIME MIXING
- IT COULD GREATLY ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS DANGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, WITH RETURNING POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. /DL/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG OUR NORTHERN CORRIDOR, WITH
SHOWERS/TS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ESCHEWING MOMENTARY DIPS ATTENDANT WITH CONVECTION AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED SITES./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 72 96 72 99 / 10 30 0 0
VICKSBURG 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 96 74 97 / 10 20 0 20
GREENVILLE 73 99 74 100 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 72 98 72 100 / 10 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/OAJ
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