433
FXUS64 KJAN 040529 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL DEPART THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.
- THIS WEEKEND, LOW TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, HIGHS
RANGE WITHIN TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 732 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF
LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION, NOW EXTENDING
FROM AROUND SHREVEPORT TO EL DORADO TO MONTICELLO TO JUST EAST OF
MEMPHIS. IN AREAS WITH LINGERING SLEET COVER ACROSS OUR UPPER
ARKLAMISS DELTA, THE RAIN AND LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE
VERY COLD GROUND RESULTED IN DENSE FOG THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON, AND IT HAS NOW CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE RAIN IS TAPERING OFF
WHILE THE FRONT STILL LAGS BEHIND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
POSTED FOR THE AREAS WITH SLEET COVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAS SINCE BEEN EXPANDED INTO SOUTHEAST AR. WITH FOG BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ACROSS MORE OF NORTH MS, ADDITIONAL EXPANSION IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. AS MIXING INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND DRIER AIR
ARRIVES, FOG SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
TODAY...
A BROAD BAROCLINIC LEAF CONTINUES TO EFFECT THE REGION, PRODUCING
A BROAD FIELD SHALLOW OF PRECIPITATION OVER ALL SITES. THIS FIELD
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION CLEARING OUT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 48 AROUND HATTIESBURG, TO NEAR FREEZING
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY...
AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC LEAF
CLEARS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS WILL HOVER IN THE MID 40S IN ALL BUT THE
FURTHEST SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA, WHERE TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE
MID 50S. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEYOND ANOTHER
BOUT OF COLD LOWS, WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEING OUR COLDEST AS
TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE MID TO HIGH 20S. A SLIGHT REBOUND IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ABOVE
FREEZING, AND THE EASTERN HALF JUST BELOW.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S, AND LOWER 70S; TEMPERATURES
WARMING THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES WITHIN OUR FORECAST ZONES. LOWS
LOOK TO FINALLY CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND STAY THAT
WAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. NO RAIN/THUNDER/FOG OR ANY OTHER
WEATHER PHENOMENA IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, SO
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO GET OUT SIDE AND GO
FOR A HIKE./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH LA THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH
MS. IFR/MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS ARE WIDESPREAD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH PERIODIC IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LOCALLY HEAVIER RA. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING. WINDS ARE SHIFTING
TO NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LOW STRATUS CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE AT MANY SITES THROUGH THE DAY. THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON, SOME SITES MAY REMAIN AT MVFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 36 48 26 48 / 100 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 40 51 26 48 / 100 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 35 49 27 49 / 90 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 46 57 30 52 / 90 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 38 51 28 51 / 100 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 32 44 26 46 / 50 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 33 44 23 45 / 80 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/OAJ
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