497
FXUS64 KJAN 271028 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA DUE TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A SHARP POLAR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION WILL REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WIND AND DRY AIR FOLLOWING THIS
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FRONT WILL BE IMPACTFUL AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
CONCERNING STRONG WINDS: THE DENSITY DIFFERENCE OF THE PRE AND
POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A BIG WIND
SURGE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS > 40 MPH IN THAT AREA HAVE PROMPTED FORMAL MESSAGING FOR
THE WIND THREAT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE
GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY, HELPING TO BRING A
DIMINISHING WIND THREAT.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
IS ALL ON BOARD WITH THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT SATURDAY
DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR (MINIMUM RH < 25%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
(PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER THREAT IN THE HWO GRAPHICS. IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BRIEF AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES, BUT ONLY FOR
DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
IFR/LIFR THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN SITES UNTIL 14/15Z AS DAYTIME HEATING
BURNS OFF LOW LYING STRATUS. DAYTIME WILL BRING ROBUST WINDS INTO
THE 20-25KT RANGE IN TANDEM WITH A DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN.
ANOTHER BOUT OF STRATUS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 50 68 47 / 0 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 48 69 47 / 0 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 84 49 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 86 54 72 49 / 0 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 85 52 70 49 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 81 45 65 44 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 82 45 67 46 / 10 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/EC/OAJ
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