283
FXUS64 KJAN 251804
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE 596DAM HIGH WHILE A COUPLE DISTURBANCES TOP THE RIDGE AND DIVE
DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN THE RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED ON LOCAL
RADARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING
BUT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED
TO DROP INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW OUR WESTERN HALF TO WARM UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S. THE 12Z TUE JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 2.10INCHES AND PWATS WL
REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS, HEAT STRESS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. IN THE NORTHEAST
WHERE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NE AROUND 105F A "LIMITED" THREAT
AREA FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE ADVERTISED. ELSEWHERE AN "ELEVATED"
THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-110F. DEPENDING ON HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION PLAYS OUT
IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY, THE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
/22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID, THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO
ADVERTISE BOTH A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND "MARGINAL RISK"
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
DURING THIS TIME, A MCV MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, IS PROGGED TO SPARK SHOWERS AND SOME
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT AREA. TIMING OF THIS MCV AND THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ISN'T IDEAL,
I.E. DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK BUT
OVERALL MODEST FLOW, THAT SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE MCV MOVES THROUGH, AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION WHERE A "SLIGHT
RISK" FOR SEVERE STORMS RESIDES. HOWEVER, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE MCV, AND A LIKELY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, MOVES FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY LIKEWISE
WEAKENS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESSENING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE TRADE-OFF WILL AGAIN BE INCREASING HEAT. BY NEXT
MONDAY, SOME NEED FOR AT LEAST A "LIMITED" THREAT OF INCREASED HEAT
STRESS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA WL COME IN VCTY OF THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN
BUT VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 96 73 92 / 10 30 60 70
MERIDIAN 73 96 73 91 / 0 30 50 70
VICKSBURG 73 97 73 92 / 0 10 50 60
HATTIESBURG 73 97 74 92 / 0 50 40 80
NATCHEZ 73 98 75 93 / 0 10 50 70
GREENVILLE 73 96 73 91 / 20 20 60 30
GREENWOOD 73 95 72 91 / 20 30 70 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/22
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