225
FXUS64 KJAN 161457
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR THIS MORNING AMID
STEADY WARM ADVECTION. JAN MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES THAT WE ARE
TOO DRY TO REALLY SEE MUCH CONVECTION TODAY, ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY MOISTEN AND GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST AS MOISTURE BECOMES
SUFFICIENT. /SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
OVERALL, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS TO START THE NEW
WEEK. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES RETURN TO OUR AREA SUNDAY, WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND
1500-2500 J/KG EACH DAY, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH THE
UPPER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
AT TIMES WHICH CONTINUES ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT A
FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL MID NEXT WEEK,
AND EVEN THEN ONLY DIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. APART FROM RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, EARLY MORNING FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AT TIMES DUE TO
THE RETURNING HUMIDITY. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
GENERALLY CALM TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER WIND SPEEDS UP INTO THE MID TEENS
IN AREAS WITHIN AND AROUND THE DELTA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PIB/HBG HAVE MUCH STRONGER
SIGNALS FOR FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD DROP
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 64 86 69 / 0 0 20 0
MERIDIAN 84 59 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 85 66 86 71 / 0 0 20 0
HATTIESBURG 85 61 86 67 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 86 67 87 72 / 0 0 50 0
GREENVILLE 87 68 89 72 / 0 0 10 10
GREENWOOD 86 66 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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