911
FXUS64 KJAN 281013 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE
TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
- THE WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESUME AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST REASONING FOR TODAY CONCERNING THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER DANGER. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS ALL ON BOARD WITH THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT GIVEN LOW RH (MINIMUM RH NEAR 20%)
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COUNTER THIS EFFECT WITH SUBSTANTIAL MIXING
AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF A FEW STRONG GUSTS EVEN SO.
OTHERWISE, ANOMALOUSLY WARM RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN REESTABLISHMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATE DISORGANIZED, DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR EARLY/MID WEEK DUE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE, AND THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY GREATER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOPEFULLY THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY IN
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOUND BEFORE INVERSION BREAK
(9-10AM LOCAL) ACROSS NORTERN SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 48 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 68 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 69 47 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 50 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 70 50 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 65 45 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 67 47 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/EC/OAJ
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