769
FXUS64 KJAN 062002
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TODAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK: SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES HAS BEEN
DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKNESS AND PINCHED
OFF OVER THE OZARK REGION WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING A LOWER-END
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THAT EXTENDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO INITIATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A HOT, UNSTABLE, AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER MCV MOVING IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL
DAMAGING WIND RISK EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION PER SPC. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE GREATEST IN TERMS OF THE AREA
FOR THESE RISKS, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. WOULD ALSO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY HEAVY RAIN THREATS AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ANCHOR A CONVECTIVE
BAND OR TWO THAT RESULTS IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS A
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PHENOMENON SO NO FORMAL MESSAGING IS BEING
SENT OUT ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE, IN TERMS OF HEAT DANGER THREATS, WE
SHOULD STAY BELOW LIMITED THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL
FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY
LOWER-END SEVERE THREATS ON A DAILY BASIS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA AND HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AS THEY'VE DEVELOPED, SO FAR.
THAT BEING SAID THERE COULD BE A SPARSE FIELD OF TS/SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT MAY BRING
LOWER VIS/CIGS AND OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH SUMMERTIME
CONVECTION. FOR THE TIME BEING THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT LOW DENSITY ACROSS THE CWA, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE AS
WE MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST ZONES. AS SUCH THERE IS A
TEMPO FOR TSRA DURING MAX HEATING (20-24Z) FOR KPIB,KHBG, AND
KHEZ. WHILE WE'VE SOME THIN STRATUS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE CWA, A SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS
DIMINISHED ANY CHANCE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING/OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 50
MERIDIAN 73 91 73 91 / 10 30 10 30
VICKSBURG 73 90 73 90 / 20 30 30 40
HATTIESBURG 74 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 50
NATCHEZ 73 90 73 91 / 30 50 20 60
GREENVILLE 72 90 73 91 / 30 40 40 40
GREENWOOD 72 91 72 91 / 20 50 20 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/OAJ
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