872
FXUS64 KJAN 041134 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
634 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RESUMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARDS MORE OF THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN TERMS OF "PEAK" STORM
INTENSITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR NE LA/SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
MS AND PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL MS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME WHERE PEAK HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD COINCIDE. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25KTS AND LACKLUSTER
FORCING, SUGGEST A WARM SEASON LIKE REGIME. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, ALONG WITH THE 25KTS OF SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL ORGANIZATION AND WOULD SUPPORT A BRIEF
DOWNBURST OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE SHEAR VECTORS ARE
MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION OF AFTERNOON DIURNAL
MODE, THINKING IS THIS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT OF THE EVENT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD, THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY OUTRUN AND BEGIN TO
OVERWHELM STORMS BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH WANING
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY OVERWORKING OF THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST.
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA. IN THE
WAKE, COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER
DIURNAL RANGES INTO MID NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN
SUNDAY/MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
TUESDAY, THEN STEADILY WARM THEREAFTER. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING A BRIEF SHOWER IN
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEST OF I-55 AND THE
RIVER AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY RIDGE DOMINANT./SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
LIFR CIGS WERE BEING OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH WHILE MVFR/IFR CIGS
WERE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. THESE LOWER CIGS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND
16-20KTS WL DEVELOP BY 16Z AND CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
STARTING THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN VCTY OF GLH BY 21Z AND BE NEAR PIB-HBG BY
07Z. THE -RA AFTER FROPA WL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT CIGS WL LOWER BACK TO IFR/LIFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 55 69 48 / 80 90 30 0
MERIDIAN 86 56 70 48 / 60 90 50 0
VICKSBURG 84 53 69 48 / 90 90 10 0
HATTIESBURG 86 63 73 51 / 60 80 70 10
NATCHEZ 84 55 70 50 / 90 90 30 0
GREENVILLE 82 52 67 47 / 90 80 0 0
GREENWOOD 84 53 69 47 / 90 90 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/SAS20/22
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