547
FXUS64 KJAN 130005 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
REST OF THIS EVENING...
MEAN RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES (GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.6 TO 2 INCHES). WARM, SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAS LED TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS. INHERITED HEAT STRESS MENTION IN HWO GRAPHICS AND
HAZARD HEADLINES REMAIN VALID. A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTH AND
SOUTHWARD SINKING OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE HAS CAUSED SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR, WITH SOME
SOUTHEAST INTO EAST MS ALONG HIGHWAY 45 TO INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDORS. THIS COVERAGE IS A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED, SO
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE (BLENDED IN MODEL CONSENSUS) TRIED TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN TRENDS. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE NORM OVERNIGHT
(I.E. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH CLOUDS). LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 6F TO 12F ABOVE
(75F TO 78F). FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN. UPDATES
ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE WEEKEND. RELIEF WILL BE
TEMPORARY AND IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR,
WILL SPARK SOME CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SAID CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS AREN'T FORECAST, GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY.
A "HEAT ADVISORY" WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
AROUND 105 YET AGAIN. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN ADDITION TO MORE CLOUD COVER, COULD
HALT THE EXTENSION OR RESULT IN SOME MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT
LAYOUT OF AFFECTED COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE ADVISED AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF DURING THE START OF THE WORK WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL BE AT AN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT THE YUCATAN AND THE
WESTERN GULF, WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN
2.25-2.5 INCHES. AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NATION'S MID-SECTION AND INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
SLOWS/STALLS AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THURSDAY, MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION LOOKS TO RESULT IN HIGH RAINFALL
RATES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME, ALONG WITH THE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
AS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS IMPACTING A FEW TAF SITES
(GLH, GWO, GTR AND MEI). THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR (ENDING BY 13/01-02Z SATURDAY). LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE CALM AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY IN THE HIGHWAY 82 TO HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDORS (GTR AND MEI),
WITH INTRODUCTION OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION (30 TO 40 PERCENT) AFTER 13/21Z SATURDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 10 40
MERIDIAN 76 95 76 94 / 20 30 10 20
VICKSBURG 77 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 50
HATTIESBURG 75 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 76 95 76 94 / 0 0 0 40
GREENVILLE 77 94 78 91 / 10 10 20 70
GREENWOOD 76 95 78 92 / 10 10 20 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ075.
DC/
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