287
FXUS64 KJAN 170007
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
707 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK,
WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL WORSENING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LOCAL RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW SHOWERS OVER EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. MOST OF THE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA
AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. OUR CWA REMAINS AT
THE BASE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT ALSO DOWNSTREAM OF A
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
TEXAS. OUR AIRMASS HAD A PWAT OVER TWO INCHES AND WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGH PWATS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WEDNESDAY, AS THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
TRACKS INTO LOUISIANA CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT AS COMPARED TO TODAY, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. /22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL GULF LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA TOWARDS OUR FORECAST
AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AS THE TROPICAL GULF LOW PUSHES INTO OUR
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY EVENING, MOISTURE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA THANKS TO REINFORCED
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FEATURE CARRYING
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS WELL OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE
PROBABILITY OF TC DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS AT 60%,
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS UNCHANGED, THEREFORE
HAZARD MESSAGING REMAINS CONSISTENT.
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND THE WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS AND
SOUTH MS. MOREHOUSE LA AND WEST CARROLL LA WERE REMOVED FROM THE
WATCH. LIKEWISE, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. REGARDING THE FLOOD GRAPHIC FOR THURSDAY,
THE SIGNIFICANT RISK WAS TRIMMED TO THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHEAST LA HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN "ELEVATED"
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. LIKEWISE, THE SIGNIFICANT RISK WAS EXPANDED
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE PINE BELT REGION.
AT THIS TIME, THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW END RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW FOR THURSDAY. DESPITE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW.
GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF,
EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE RISK
REMAINS LOW. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY DRAGS SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. LOOKING AT THE PWATS FOR
FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT PWATS WILL BE AROUND 1.5-1.7 INCHES
WHICH IS MORE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME IN JUNE. THIS SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE A BRIEF "BREAK" FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND, RAIN COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY-SUNDAY ARE STILL LOOKING TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HWY 84. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK MAY MEAN THAT
RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR/MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES AS RA/VCSH AND
LOW CEILINGS IMPACT SITES THROUGH 07Z BEFORE LIFR CIGS DEVELOP
THROUGH 14Z. THEREAFTER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY, EXPECT GUSTS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 25KTS TO
DEVELOP BY 15Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 88 74 85 / 20 40 80 90
MERIDIAN 70 88 74 83 / 30 50 80 100
VICKSBURG 71 88 74 87 / 10 30 70 90
HATTIESBURG 71 86 75 83 / 30 50 80 100
NATCHEZ 72 88 75 87 / 10 50 90 90
GREENVILLE 71 90 75 89 / 0 10 40 50
GREENWOOD 71 91 75 88 / 10 20 60 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/KP
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