670
FXUS64 KJAN 120114 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
814 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 814 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
REST OF THIS EVENING...
THE REGION REMAINS PARKED UNDER MEAN RIDGING AT THE ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE, WITH DRY MOISTURE PROFILES ACROSS THE GULF STATES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY AROUND 1.5
INCHES). WARM, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS KEPT A HOT AND HUMID DAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING. A FRONTAL
ZONE WILL SAG SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH TO DELTA
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INCREASED MOIST ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE, COUPLED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE, FOR INCREASED CLOUDS
AND MAYBE A SHOWER AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE HIGHWAY 82 AND DELTA
REGIONS. PERSISTENCE ENVIRONMENT IS ON TAP OVERNIGHT (I.E.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE NORTH). LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME
5F TO 12F ABOVE (72F TO 76F SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WHILE
77F TO 79F TO THE NORTHWEST). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN THE STORY HEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S THROUGH SUNDAY AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 100-110F EACH
DAY. THIS DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS HAS RESULTED IN A "HEAT ADVISORY"
BEING HOISTED FOR A PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY, WITH SOME CHANGES IN THE
LAYOUT OF THE AFFECTED COUNTIES/PARISHES POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAT TAPERS OFF DURING THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK,
MOISTURE WILL BE APLENTY ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERING ABOUT THE YUCATAN, WILL OVERSPREAD
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING AROUND 2.5 INCHES. THIS, AS A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION
RESULTING IN A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALLING, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENTLY A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLASH FLOODING IS BEING ADVERTISED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
BOTH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS CATEGORICAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY BE MADE, WITH A POSSIBLE "FLASH FLOOD
WATCH" NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 814 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN
12/11-13Z AT PIB AND HBG, WITH BRIEF STRATUS POSSIBLE AT BOTH AND
ALSO HEZ. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, WITH PERSISTENCE LEANING
TOWARDS LESS LIKELY, SO ADDED TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS. LIGHT WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
(GWO AND GTR) BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IN THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 77 94 / 0 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 74 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 30
VICKSBURG 76 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 73 94 76 95 / 0 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 78 92 77 94 / 10 20 10 20
GREENWOOD 77 93 76 95 / 0 40 30 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-
016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ075.
DC/19
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