893
FXUS64 KJAN 202055
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WEAK MCV HAS BEEN ANCHORING A GENERAL ZONE OF
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY THAT IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
I-55 CORRIDOR, AND THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. GIVEN A VERY PRECIP EFFICIENT AIRMASS
WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 2 INCHES AND HIGH/DEEP
RH, THERE ARE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLY, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP WHERE SMALL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE CAN
PERSIST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR SETUP THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK MCV DURING PEAK HEATING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, AND THIS
SETUP COULD ONCE AGAIN FOCUS LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL, GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND MESSAGE FOR A
LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION OF WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
TROUGH TO RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, A GREATER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
COULD EVOLVE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING GREATER AREAS OF
LIFT/INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR, AND WE'LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE, IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IT'S DIFFICULT TO FIND AN END TO THIS WET
PATTERN IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONTH. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MULTIPLE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS OF 1728Z TO
START OFF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST MS BY 23Z. THE
TSRA WL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THU BUT -SHRA WL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 07Z MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP
OVER MOST TAF SITES AND LOWER TO IFR/LIFR BY 10Z. IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY. AFTER
16Z, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 84 69 82 / 40 70 80 100
MERIDIAN 68 86 69 82 / 40 50 60 100
VICKSBURG 68 84 69 82 / 40 70 80 90
HATTIESBURG 70 86 70 82 / 40 60 60 100
NATCHEZ 68 85 70 82 / 40 70 80 100
GREENVILLE 66 82 68 81 / 30 50 90 90
GREENWOOD 67 84 68 82 / 40 50 90 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR
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