336
FXUS64 KJAN 121622 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1022 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MOST NIGHTS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION IS STILL RESULTING IN
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION BUT A CUT OFF LOW
SPINNING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WAS SENDING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN SOME DURING THE DAY AND HELP HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL; IN THE THE LOWER 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PIVOTING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY
WILL SHEAR OUT AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FLOW ALOFT, SETTING UP A
MORE TRADITIONAL POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY MID WEEK.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE WEST COAST
WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND COMES TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL REINFORCE
COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND PREVENT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AROUND
WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CUTOFF LOW PASS THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AROUND
THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND, THE DETAILS DON'T SUPPORT MUCH CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TO COINCIDE WITH AIR THAT MIGHT BE COLD
ENOUGH. NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGEST THIS MEASURABLE WINTRY
PRECIP IN OUR AREA IS STILL HIGHLY UNLIKELY. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 31 60 43 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 52 28 59 40 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 53 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 55 31 61 43 / 0 0 0 30
NATCHEZ 55 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 20
GREENVILLE 51 33 60 42 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 52 32 60 41 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/NF/SAS20
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