456
FXUS64 KJAN 180839
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A WARM MOIST AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA. LATEST PWATS
WERE RUNNING JUST ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS BEING OBSERVED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WL START OFF
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR
MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THE DISTINCT DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN THE
CONVECTION DYING OFF RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. THE PROBABILITIES OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT ARE LOWER FOR TUESDAY MORNING BUT PATCHY LIGHT EARLY
MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE CWA. ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS (RANGING IN THE 80S)
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWS (UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
DEGREES) WILL RUN +5-8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE
EXTENDED AS WELL.
PRECIP CHANCES RANGING FROM 40% TO 95% WITH GREATEST CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY (95%) AND FRIDAY (90%) WITH 80-95% ARE LIKELY. ON TUESDAY,
THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA, INTERACTION WITH THE
PRESENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE NEAR THE MS DELTA, MAY PROMOTE A
FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A 'MARGINAL' RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MS DELTA REGION TUESDAY.
A HWO GRAPHIC WILL BE INTRODUCED TO REFLECT THE SEVERE RISK AREA.
AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION, PROVIDING ADDITION MOISTURE AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY WON'T BE AS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER, AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. ESTIMATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1.0-3.5 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND. RECEIVED RAINFALL WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING
DROUGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MVFR CIGS WERE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT HEZ AT 0530Z. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WL DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH BY 10Z WHILE THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES REMAIN IN VFR. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY 15Z AND A GUSTY SE-S
WIND 18-20KTS WL DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY 16Z. THESE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
BY 23Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN VCTY OF
HEZ AFTER 19Z AND UNTIL 23Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 72 88 70 / 10 10 40 50
MERIDIAN 88 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 30
VICKSBURG 89 73 89 70 / 10 10 40 60
HATTIESBURG 88 71 88 69 / 30 0 20 0
NATCHEZ 89 73 89 71 / 30 20 50 60
GREENVILLE 90 74 90 70 / 10 10 40 60
GREENWOOD 89 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/22
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