378
FXUS64 KJAN 221124
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET RECENT FEW WEEKS, IT APPEARS THAT OUR
FORECAST AREA MAY BE SHIFTING INTO A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF ANTICIPATED RAINFALL, GIVEN THE
CURRENT EXPANDING DROUGHT IN THE REGION, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL
BRING US MORE INTO ALIGNMENT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECT
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY PUSHES
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. BROAD TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND,
BUT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY WILL HOWEVER HELP TO CONCENTRATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5+ INCHES WILL BECOME
COMMON THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPTICK BEFORE THAT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR
THURSDAY. SBCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS ARE NOT TOO CONCERNING FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR ONE OR TWO STRONGER
STORMS IN THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
FOR FRIDAY, THE APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
INTERACT WITH AN ATMOSPHERE MORE CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS BETTER
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION. EVEN IN OUR
OWN FORECAST AREA, AFTERNOON HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING LOCALLY, THOUGH WITH WEAKER SHEAR. UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAVORED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST EVEN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MLCAPE TO SUSTAIN
ORGANIZED MCS TYPE OF ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA. A MARGINAL/SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN INDICATED IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
GUIDANCE HINTS AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTRUNNING THE FRONT AND
SETTLING CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST SATURDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES
PERSIST. REBUILDING INSTABILITY COULD CREATE A SIMILAR SETUP FOR MCS
TYPE ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AND THEN FINALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF WILL GET A RENEWED SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH AND LIKELY
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS
THROUGH. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER (ASSUMING NO LINGERING
DISRUPTIONS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE WEEKEND), AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONGER (40-50 KTS) TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. HAVING MULTIPLE DAYS WITH A LOW-END SEVERE RISK MESSAGED
STILL SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO, BUT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO BEYOND DAY 3 (FRIDAY) AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TIMING AND IMPACTS AS THIS WEEKEND NEARS
AND DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF, SO KEPT SCT FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST
MAY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY TOMORROW MORNING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 60 83 62 / 10 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 82 57 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 81 62 84 63 / 10 10 20 0
HATTIESBURG 82 58 85 60 / 10 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 81 62 83 64 / 10 10 30 0
GREENVILLE 81 62 84 65 / 10 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 82 61 84 64 / 0 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/SAS20
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