873
FXUS64 KJAN 070603 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1203 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RADIATE, AND MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD. HREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS DECENT PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING: THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH A COOL, HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD BRING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MIXING STRENGTH AND JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO GET. FOR NOW, HAVE MESSAGED A LIMITED DENSE FOG THREAT
IN THE HAZARD GRAPHICS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GREATER
POTENTIAL AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR WEATHER IN OUR REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME, AND THEY SHOULD ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WED/THU FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY COOLER WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND SUGGEST A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MAY DEVELOP AND SURGE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS ARE TOO LOW FOR MESSAGING AT THIS POINT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE STILL BEING OBSERVED AT GLH AND GWO AT 0530Z
WHILE IFR CIGS WERE BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 10Z. LIFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADAULLY IMPROVING TO IFR/MVFR CIGS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND -RA TO THE NW BY 23Z AND SPREAD
TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 43 62 44 53 / 0 50 60 0
MERIDIAN 39 60 42 54 / 10 20 70 0
VICKSBURG 44 60 41 52 / 0 60 30 0
HATTIESBURG 44 67 47 59 / 10 30 70 0
NATCHEZ 45 65 43 54 / 0 50 40 0
GREENVILLE 41 54 39 47 / 0 40 30 0
GREENWOOD 41 58 40 50 / 0 40 40 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
/22
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