124
FXUS64 KJAN 021850
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY OVER THE WHOLE CWA BUT, THERE EXISTS THE LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
LARGE 596DAM HIGH CENTERED OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.
BENEATH THIS HIGH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD AN 1018MB HIGH.
THESE FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
RESULT IN HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY AS PWATS REMAIN 1.75-2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB UP INTO
THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH REACH AND EXCEED
105F. THE MOST OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO LOW CHANCES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA, THE GREATEST PARAMETERS FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST IN OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A STORM OR TWO MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. /22/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
PERSISTENT HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD, KEEPING AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AND DANGEROUS HEAT
OVER THE AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HWY 82 ON FRIDAY. EXTENSION OF HEAT PRODUCTS INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE EVALUATED ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS AS HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM 105-110 DEGREES. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE 4TH (25-45%) AND ON SUNDAY (35-70%).
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS REMAIN
UNCHANGED. HEAT GRAPHICS AND PRODUCES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEK. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY
OF THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
CARRY IN THE TAFS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 75 93 / 0 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 10 30
VICKSBURG 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 10 30
NATCHEZ 74 95 75 94 / 10 10 0 30
GREENVILLE 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 20
GREENWOOD 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ046.
LA...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/SW/KP
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