853
FXUS64 KJAN 261958
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: FIRST THE HEAT, THEN THE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA HAVE RISEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES GREATER THAN 105F ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AND NEAR 105F ELSEWHERE. THESE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING UNLESS BEING KNOCKED DOWN BY RAIN COOLED
AIR. LOCAL RADARS WERE NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA AT EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT THE REMNANTS OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DROP AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION, THERE WAS A DISTURBANCE
GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THAT WAS DROPPING
SOUTH. THE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY DEVELOP SOONER THAN
THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT CONSIDERING THE THERMAL PROFILES
AND ANTICIPATED SHEAR, AND STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND THERE MAY BE MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES IN THE
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. PROVIDED THE AREAS OF STORMS
COME TOGETHER AS FORECAST, RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES THURSDAY MORNING INCLUDING CLOUD DEBRIS OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE THE EXTENT OF HEAT STRESS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER OUR DELTA REGION WHERE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REACH OR EXCEED 105F AGAIN. /22/
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY, AS A BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH HEATING IN THIS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESSENING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE TRADE-OFF WILL AGAIN BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HEAT, BUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
BY NEXT TUESDAY, SOME NEED FOR AT LEAST A "LIMITED" THREAT OF
INCREASED HEAT STRESS MAY EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING OVER THE SOUTH
AFTER 12Z. AWAY FROM THE TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR CIGS WL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL UNTIL
IMPROVING AFTER 16Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 93 71 94 / 60 30 30 30
MERIDIAN 72 93 72 94 / 60 40 30 40
VICKSBURG 72 93 70 93 / 60 30 30 20
HATTIESBURG 73 92 72 94 / 50 70 40 50
NATCHEZ 73 93 71 94 / 60 50 40 30
GREENVILLE 72 95 71 94 / 60 20 10 10
GREENWOOD 71 94 70 94 / 60 20 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/22
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