457
FXUS64 KJAN 291726
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST TODAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT HEAT STRESS
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
TODAY BUT A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY HELP LIMIT THE HEAT IN THE
NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 594DAM HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT ALSO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS CLOSED LOW WAS HELPING SUPPORT A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL TRY AND
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUR
CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE HIGH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
CWA THAT WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN RESULT IN
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 110F ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND BETWEEN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTERSTATE 55 WHILE OUR WESTERN AND NORTHEAST
ZONES SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106F-110F BEFORE ANY RELIEF
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN
"EXTREME HEAT WARNING" AND "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY
FOR THE RESPECTIVE AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD SOUTH TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. /22/
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO TAKE HOLD DUE TO THE SURFACE CONFLUENCE
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FEW DEGREE DIP;
MITIGATING HEAT THREAT CONCERNS. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE WILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING INTO THE AREA
OR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A MORE TYPICAL FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE AREA AROUND THE LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO LOSE MOMENTUM AND STALL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TO FINISH
OUT THE PERIOD./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AS OF 1726Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CEILINGS TO START
OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 20Z. SEVERAL NORTHERN SITES COULD SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY
DROP DOWN TO MVFR STATUS BETWEEN 21Z-24Z DUE TO SCATTERED -SHRA
AND -TSRA. AFTER 00Z, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 94 74 94 / 40 60 10 40
MERIDIAN 75 94 73 94 / 40 60 10 20
VICKSBURG 77 94 75 95 / 30 70 10 20
HATTIESBURG 77 94 75 93 / 30 70 40 60
NATCHEZ 76 94 75 95 / 30 70 20 20
GREENVILLE 75 94 75 95 / 20 30 0 20
GREENWOOD 74 95 73 95 / 30 10 0 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-
044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/CR
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