041
FXUS64 KJAN 270535 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR AND EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, A
QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVER A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO RUNOFF ISSUES AND FLASH FLOODING OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED OUR CWA
BETWEEN A LARGE 593DAM HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT, THE LARGE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
A WARM MOIST FEED OFF THE GULF TO FUEL THE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR EAST AGAIN. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHOW A DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND AND DECREASE WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.
COME WEDNESDAY MORNING WL STILL HAVE OUR WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND STOUT RIDGING TO THE EAST. A
SHORTWAVE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED
AS MUCH RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS EAST MISSISSIPPI
HAS SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT, THE GRAPHIC
DEPICTING THE "LIMITED THREAT" OF FLASH FLOODING FOR OUR WHOLE CWA
WILL PUBLISHED. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK: AN ACTIVE, HIGHLY UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL FEATURE A
QUASI-OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN THAT ESTABLISHES OVER CENTRAL CONUS
LATER THIS WEEK. A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND A CLOSED LOW HANGS ACROSS THE WEST, UNSTABLE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE CUTOFF OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS AMOUNTS OF DEEP
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH IMPRESSIVE 2IN+ PW
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY POPS LOCKED INTO THE
55 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE AREAWIDE.
GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD OVER THE PERIOD.
CONTINUED MCV ACTIVITY IN THE REGION WILL CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS
TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGHEST BANDS OF
PRECIP. EXPECT THE "LIMITED" THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO BE
MAINTAINED WITH "ELEVATED" THREAT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED DAILY AND
RE-EVALUATED ON A DAILY BASIS.
A GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING, LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY DIVERTING PORTIONS OF DEEPEST GULF
MOISTURE EFFECTIVELY LIMITING POPS TO AN EXTENT. /KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST MS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING IN MOST AREAS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT MOST SPECIFIC SITES, BUT THESE COULD
LEAD TO MOSTLY BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 70 82 70 / 70 50 90 50
MERIDIAN 86 70 84 69 / 70 20 90 50
VICKSBURG 85 70 82 69 / 70 70 80 50
HATTIESBURG 85 70 83 69 / 80 40 100 50
NATCHEZ 86 70 82 70 / 90 80 90 30
GREENVILLE 85 70 82 70 / 70 60 80 60
GREENWOOD 86 70 84 70 / 60 60 90 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/DL
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