741
FXUS64 KJAN 312032 CCA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT (LEVEL 1/4) FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR 105 FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (LEVEL 1/5) TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ROUGHLY ALONG A PEAK INSTABILITY AXIS
(MIXED LAYER CAPE > 4000 J/KG) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN AR THROUGH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MS. DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING ALONG THIS AXIS WITH CONTINUED HEATING OF THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT CONDITIONS ALOFT (ANTICYCLONIC AND
SUBSIDENT) ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL STREAM RIDGE, ARE NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE THAN ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. GIVEN THE HOT SFC CONDITIONS WITH HIGH THETA-E VALUES
LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BIG OVERALL CAPE, THERE
IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW PULSE TYPE SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT, WE'LL SEE THE THREATS
REEMERGE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW
HOWEVER IS THAT STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND
HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ONCE IT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS WHEN/WHERE THE STORM ORGANIZATION WILL
OCCUR, WE'LL MOST LIKELY NEED TO UPGRADE SEVERE CATEGORIES TO SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2/5) OR PERHAPS EVEN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
AS OF NOW, UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO GO MORE THAN MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) PER SPC. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONFINED.
OTHERWISE, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN (LIMITED
THREAT - LEVEL 1/4) OVER MAINLY WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN LIKE THE STORMS, BECOMING
MORE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /EC/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: IT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN THAT
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF ACROSS MOST OF
OUR AREA FROM THE INCREASING HEAT STRESS, WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S AND LOW TEMPS DEEP INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO CURTAIL RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BEGIN TO
RECOVER FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A RESURGENCE
OF 70S DEWPOINTS AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
/DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSRA/VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF LOWERING OF CONDITIONS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 93 73 89 / 20 30 40 30
MERIDIAN 72 93 72 88 / 10 40 40 50
VICKSBURG 75 93 74 90 / 20 10 20 20
HATTIESBURG 74 93 73 91 / 20 40 20 60
NATCHEZ 75 94 74 92 / 10 20 10 40
GREENVILLE 74 93 73 88 / 10 10 50 10
GREENWOOD 73 93 72 88 / 10 20 70 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/DL/KP
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