817
FXUS64 KJAN 170551
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT STRESS A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS IN THE
FORECAST AND HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE, WHICH WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND REDIRECT LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST.
THAT SAID, MOISTURE DOES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTION, SO A
POPUP SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. THE HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LARGELY DUE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL REINFORCE AN 850 THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THIS THERMAL
RIDGE LOOKS TO PEAK ON TUESDAY WITH THE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO COMPRESSION FROM THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100, WHILE HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 IN THE NORTHEAST TO GREATER THAN 110 IN THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN HEAT MESSAGING WITH AN
AREAWIDE "ELEVATED" FOR NOW. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BEGINNING TOMORROW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT IS LIKELY THAT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE "SIGNIFICANT" HEAT STRESS NEXT
WEEK, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK A "SIGNIFICANT"
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO GRAPHIC. HEAT WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE THE RIDGE IS NO DOUBT DOMINANT, THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF WEAKENING IN THE EAST, ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL NORTHERLY OR EASTERLY MCS OR
SOME OTHER TYPE OF CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR ORGANIZATION.
SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT ON
A DAY BY DAY BASIS WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE PLACING OUR AREA
ON THE EASTERN FLANK. THIS COULD SET UP A BRIEF NW FLOW REGIME THAT
LEAVES US MORE VULNERABLE TO CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ALL THE WHILE,
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST AND THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO
LATER NEXT WEEK. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AFTER 18Z TODAY, BUT CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THUNDER ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 75 96 76 / 10 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 94 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF
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