296
FXUS64 KJAN 010035 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
735 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SOUTH OF THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW,
AND A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY:
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STALLED FRONT ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND AN 1018MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WAS SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW WERE HELPING
MAINTAIN STRATUS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY
INTERSTATE 20 AND SOUTH. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE TONIGHT BUT
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP TONIGHT AS
WELL. AS THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY IT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS OUR CWA. AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY,
OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE COME IN MUCH LOWER. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD WHERE FLOODING IN NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN. THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO PUT
A DENT IN THE ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DECENT RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. OUR NORMAL HIGHS FOR MAY 1ST ARE AROUND
80F. /22/
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER, TO
MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TOWARDS DAY BREAK SATURDAY, THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEADILY END
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MID-DAY. SKIES WILL ALSO
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. THIS
COMBINATION WILL AID IN DRYING THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND, AFTER A WEEK OF SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO WARM DURING THIS TIME AS MOISTURE SUBTLY
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE SOME PLACEMENT AND TIMING
ISSUES AT THE MOMENT, THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL INTO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES BACK TO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND LOW STRATUS WILL BRING VARIABLE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT LOWERING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z FRIDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 63 51 69 / 60 80 100 10
MERIDIAN 52 64 49 69 / 50 80 100 20
VICKSBURG 55 63 51 70 / 60 90 90 0
HATTIESBURG 57 67 51 70 / 50 80 100 20
NATCHEZ 56 62 51 70 / 60 90 100 10
GREENVILLE 55 66 52 71 / 30 60 70 0
GREENWOOD 54 67 51 71 / 20 50 80 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/22/06
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