432
FXUS64 KJAN 200559 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD SCALE ASCENT, COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THETA E
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE, IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED AND BEEN
MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY. ANY STORMS THAT TAKE SOME NORTHERLY
PROPAGATION THE MOST FAVORABLY ALIGNED TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY MEAN
LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A BROAD
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TX,
WHICH IS DRIVING THE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATING COLD POOL. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WEST OF THE MS
RIVER WHILE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL SAG TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, LEADING TO SOME STORMS
FESTERING THROUGH THAT PERIOD. REFS THUNDER PROBS PERSIST BUT
CONTINUE TO GO DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 1AM, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD ONLY BE WEAKENING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR, IF THAT. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH SOME
PATCHY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE PINE BELT AND SOME LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. UPDATES WERE SHIPPED OUT
EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED
SOME WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE LIMITED SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE
SHEAR/BOUNDARY RELATIONSHIP IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR GETTING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DURING PEAK AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THEN THOSE STORMS COULD MOVE IN MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, WE'VE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AND
TRIMMED BACK THE MARGINAL RISK AREA SOME BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION OF WET WEATHER IS
SETTING UP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
TROUGH TO RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. IN THE
BIG PICTURE, THIS WILL BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND HELP INITIATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH, WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREAS WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST THE LONGEST.
SLU CIPS ANALOGS REVEAL SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ANALOGS FROM THE
HISTORIC ARCHIVES THAT SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE
BASED ON OUR CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS, BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW TO PROVIDE FORMAL MESSAGING. KEEP IN MIND THAT
WITH EACH DAY THAT ACCUMULATES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE,
IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
LOCAL RADARS HAD A BAND OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE CNTRL TAF SITES
AT 0530Z. THIS ACTIVITY WL BECOME -RA AS IT STALLS OVER CNTRL MS.
AWAY FROM THE TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN
MVFR/IFR CIGS WL DEVELOP EAST AND SE. THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WL
REMAIN IN VFR UNTIL THE AFTN WHEN ISOLD TO SCT -TSRA REDEVELOP.
THE TSRA WL SPREAD INTO EAST AND SE MS BY 23Z. THE TSRA WL
DIMINISH AFTER 01Z THU BUT -SHRA WL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 69 85 70 83 / 60 80 60 100
MERIDIAN 69 87 70 84 / 40 50 40 90
VICKSBURG 69 84 69 82 / 70 80 70 100
HATTIESBURG 69 87 71 84 / 20 60 40 90
NATCHEZ 70 85 71 83 / 60 80 70 90
GREENVILLE 68 82 68 82 / 60 90 90 90
GREENWOOD 68 84 69 82 / 60 80 80 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page