908
FXUS64 KJAN 200559 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL SOUPY
AND UNSTABLE. BOUNDARIES GALORE DOT THE REGION, LEFTOVER FROM
VARIOUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. AND RESIDUAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
COULD TRIGGER RENEWED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS
FOR EXAMPLE KEEP HIGHLIGHTING THE REGION BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20
AND INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDORS THROUGH LOUISIANA FOR DEVLEOPMENT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS WAS OVERTAKING AN OLD
STALLED BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION EXTENDING
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FIRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. JUST TO OUR WEST REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST ARAKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE AND AN MCV. ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONSIDERING THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS OUR CWA, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY IN SPOTS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82 BUT
OUR SOUTHEAST REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE DUE TO THE RECENT
FLOODING RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
OUR CWA WITH PWATS GREATER THAN TWO INCHES, HAS COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S TO RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 105F ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SEE A DISTINCT
DIURNAL TREND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE STALLED COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EARLY START SATURDAY TO
CONVECTION. THIS EARLY START IS EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
EVEN IN OUR SOUTH SO HEAT STRESS WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN.
RAINFALL RATES WITH SATURDAY'S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
AND ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING. /22/
THROUGH THURSDAY:
SUNDAY: THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. CAM MODELS SUGGEST
THE FORMATION OF COUPLE OF MCSS NEAR TX/AR THAT WILL HEAD TOWARDS
OUR AREA. WITH THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL, SATURATED SOIL, AND STORM
TRAINING, FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER AZ/NM AND NORTHERN
MEXICO AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO REGION
WILL SET UP THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER FOR THE DURATION OF WEEK. CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, NOTHING HAS BEEN
OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS SHOWERS/STORMS
DISSIPATE OVER SITES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW STRATUS; RESULTING IN MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER 12Z, SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 73 89 76 / 80 40 60 0
MERIDIAN 85 72 88 75 / 90 40 60 0
VICKSBURG 88 74 89 76 / 70 40 60 0
HATTIESBURG 89 75 89 77 / 80 40 40 0
NATCHEZ 90 75 90 77 / 70 40 50 0
GREENVILLE 86 73 89 76 / 70 40 60 10
GREENWOOD 86 73 89 76 / 80 40 70 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW
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