425
FXUS64 KJAN 071021
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLOODING ARE LIKELY, WITH
FURTHER DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 521 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THROUGH TOMORROW...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING, AS THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVE SYSTEM CLEAR
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ALLOWING FOR A SMATTERING
OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THOSE SITES; AS ONSHORE FLOW RIDES OVER THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. HIGHEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INTO THE PINE BELT TO
HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS BUT SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY.
THE WEEKEND...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE ARLATEX OVER THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE TO PICK UP YET AGAIN SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY (25 TO 55 PERCENT); FUELED BY A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS, AROUND A MID-LEVEL HIGH DRIFTING OFF TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC. YET ANOTHER FRONT, WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT JUST PUSHED
THROUGH, WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND ENHANCING LIFT AND
WRINGING OUT ANY REMAINING LOWER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. A KEEN EYE
WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT ON SOIL SATURATIONS AND AS THESE STORMS MOVE
ACROSS FORECAST ZONES, AS THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR FLASH
FLOODING WHEN HIGH RAIN RATES MOVE OVER WATER-LOGGED/IMPERMEABLE
AREAS.
NEXT WEEK...
THIS FRONT WILL FULLY CLEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAKING WAY FOR
SEASONAL NORMS, AND BENIGN CONDITIONS.
ONCE A MORE SEASONAL HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 70S
MON/TUES AND MID 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL THING TO NOTE AS
BENIGN CONDITIONS SETTLE IN IS THE CHANCE FOR LOW LYING RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE MORNINGS FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z,
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. MVFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED DUE TO LOW STRATUS, ALSO IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z
FRIDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 55 74 61 / 0 0 30 70
MERIDIAN 75 53 74 59 / 10 0 10 80
VICKSBURG 73 55 75 62 / 0 0 30 60
HATTIESBURG 79 58 73 61 / 50 0 60 80
NATCHEZ 74 58 75 64 / 0 0 60 70
GREENVILLE 71 53 75 60 / 0 0 0 40
GREENWOOD 73 52 77 59 / 0 0 0 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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