093
FXUS64 KJAN 070131 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. POSSIBLE FROST
AND FREEZE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TOMORROW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED,
BUT HUMIDITY AND EXPECTED STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE WARM THAN ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY. SO A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WAS
MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. DENSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
IN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SETTLING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING, SO THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS THROUGH 10 AM.
/NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CONTINUED MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT NEARING THE ARKLATEX
AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF WHILE THE COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR
NORTHWEST MOST ZONES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
OUR CWA AND WL MAINTAIN OUR WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTED A GREATER COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE STRATUS LAYER MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE LAYER
OF STRATUS OVER OUR CWA. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD BREAK UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ALSO HINDER DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
WHOLE CWA FROM 5 AM THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY LEANING TOWARD THE
EARLIER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT LOWER
60S ARE EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 70S. /22/
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY): GLOBAL AND AI MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE LATE WEEK AROUND THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. THIS NEAR NEUTRAL TROUGH
WILL BRING STRONG MEAN FLOW WITH DECREASING MODEL FLUX IN FINE
DETAILS. DETAILS LOOK TO BE A LEAD WAVE EJECTION BEFORE A SOUTHERN
SPOKE OF ENERGY LAGGING BEHIND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO TX TO
OK PANHANDLES PHASES WITH A STRONGER DEVELOPING COLD CORE SOUTHERN
CANADA TO HIGH PLAINS. GLOBALS AND ENSEMBLE SUITE, INCLUDING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, STILL INDICATE JUXTAPOSITION OF COPIOUS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (35 TO 55KTS) AND SOME LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND SOME POTENTIAL
ANAFRONTAL NATURE MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION, HIGHER HEIGHTS
(578 TO 582DM AT 500MB) AND STABLE HEIGHTS TO MINIMAL HEIGHT FALLS
ON FRIDAY MAY LIMIT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE IN AI MODEL SUITE AND CSU CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES (AROUND 15 PERCENT) ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SLOWER SOUTHERN SPOKE WILL KEEP SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO EVEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARD REMAINS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT IN LINE ORTHOGONAL NORTHEAST BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION,
ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES
NEAR 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
DUE TO A SLOWER PROPAGATION EASTWARD, CANNOT RULE OUT UP TO 2 INCHES
TO EVEN IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN A SHORT DURATION. LASTLY, STRONG
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LEAD UP (I.E. 5 TO 7MB
GRADIENT ON THURSDAY) AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOLDING OFF INTRODUCTION OF EITHER HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING OR GRADIENT
WIND HWO GRAPHICS FOR NOW.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. STRONG SURFACE HIGH (I.E. >1030MB)
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD, STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO ARKLATEX TO
TN VALLEY REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT FROST CAN'T BE RULED
OUT PROBABLE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LIKELY FREEZE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. NBM PROBABILITIES EXCEED POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT
FREEZE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT BELOW
FREEZING AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT BELOW 28F). THESE DETAILS FOR A
POTENTIAL FREEZE WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER. /DC/22/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AND PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP
WITH PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST SITES
BETWEEN AROUND 09Z-15Z WEDNESDAY. LIFTING STRATUS MAY STILL HOLD
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR DECK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 75 58 77 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 59 75 56 76 / 10 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 59 74 58 77 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 61 79 59 79 / 10 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 61 77 60 79 / 0 0 0 20
GREENVILLE 52 69 56 74 / 0 0 0 30
GREENWOOD 56 71 56 76 / 0 0 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
075.
22/06
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