057
FXUS64 KJAN 072323
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR THAT PERSISTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- AFTER A WARM-UP DURING THE MID WEEK, WE'LL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
WEATHER IN OUR REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER A HALF INCH ON AVERAGE.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED,
RESULTING IN SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS GOING FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LOW STRATUS, WHICH WAS A FORECASTING CHALLENGE IN THE
LAST COLD ADVECTION EVENT, WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE RANGES IS LOWER
THAN USUAL BECAUSE OF THIS, AND THE FORECAST TENDS TO REFLECT A
SCENARIO WITH LESS STRATUS. SO DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IS CLOUDIER
THAN EXPECTED WITH SMALLER DAILY RANGES. GOING INTO MID WEEK, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXIT OUR REGION, AND THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH
THAT DEVELOPS AND SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY, BUT WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN COOL ANOMALIES BEING CENTERED TO
OUR NORTH EAST, VERY SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE GEOMETRY OF LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES, SO
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN HOW IMPACTFUL THIS MAY BE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
AREA TAF SITES THROUGH 08Z MONDAY. WHILE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE REGION BY THIS TIME, LOW STRATUS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HANG
ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS 00Z FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OF THE AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CATEGORIES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY THAT TIME. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 43 51 31 57 / 80 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 42 52 29 56 / 80 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 41 51 32 57 / 70 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 57 33 60 / 80 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 42 53 33 59 / 80 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 39 47 31 52 / 80 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 40 49 29 54 / 70 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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