325
FXUS64 KJAN 200613
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
113 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN AREAWIDE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR AND MORE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS AN H590 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE
SOUTHEAST. /15/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RECORD BREAKING HEAT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, WHICH WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS
SHOULD BOTH INCREASE DANGEROUS HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-105+, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-55. AN
ELEVATED HEAT GRAPHIC CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST,
WHERE LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED, INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA (105), BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
HEAT THREAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN
PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGN OF THE COOL SEASON, WILL NOT BE STRICTLY
DIURNAL, AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL WEAK, THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE MIDLEVEL
HIGH. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, AND IT MAKES METEOROLOGICAL SENSE, THAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE REINFORCED IN ITS WAKE LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ISOLATED SHRA AND TS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
CEILING/VISBY REDUCTIONS IN EAST MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 74 98 72 / 0 0 10 10
MERIDIAN 98 72 98 71 / 10 10 20 10
VICKSBURG 97 74 98 72 / 0 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 97 73 97 72 / 10 10 20 10
NATCHEZ 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 99 75 100 73 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 99 74 99 71 / 0 0 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
15/
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