436  
FXUS64 KJAN 191727  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE DURING THE MORNING  
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE A  
DEGREE OR TWO AREAWIDE.  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
ANOTHER DRY AND BENIGN DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE A  
CHILLY START, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE UNDER ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT AND BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH  
OVERNIGHT READINGS BEING THE COLDEST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. HERE, MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR WHICH MAY LEAD TO  
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE, LOWER 40S WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. /28/  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AFTER A GLANCING BOUT OF SHOWERS  
WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER JET STREAM REMAINS DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH  
SOUTH TO KEEP OUR REGION IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS, ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION,  
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK ABOVE 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL  
SWING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY, BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY FOR A  
BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING  
THE EVENING, DEPARTING OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY  
THURSDAY, AND AS LOW/MID LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RECOVER BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM, TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE RESUMING A  
SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE  
DAYTIME SATURDAY, BUT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE MURKY AS MODEL  
SOLUTIONS INCREASINGLY DIVERGE. A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS  
IT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WITH  
THIS FEATURE, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
ENCROACH UPON OUR AREA AS UPPER FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES.  
THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS IN A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE BRINGING A  
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.  
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IF  
RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THESE WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE FOR THE  
MONDAY TIME FRAME. /DL/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 63 38 68 44 / 0 0 2 17  
MERIDIAN 63 37 69 44 / 0 0 1 12  
VICKSBURG 65 39 67 43 / 0 0 5 18  
HATTIESBURG 65 38 70 45 / 0 0 0 3  
NATCHEZ 66 40 67 44 / 0 0 1 7  
GREENVILLE 63 40 66 42 / 0 0 22 39  
GREENWOOD 62 38 66 42 / 0 0 9 42  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
JPM3  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab LA Page Main Text Page