873
FXUS64 KJAN 151857
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
WORSENED FIRE DANGER AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE AREA TOMORROW.
- VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST. THERE REMAINS EFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING/LOW HUMIDITY
INTO CRITICAL LEVELS (25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) FOR CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
80S F TO LOWER 90S F BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S F
TONIGHT. /DC/86/
FRIDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK:
A FALL, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
PHASE WITH DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS/UPPER JET DIVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY.
THIS WILL HELP AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S (36-45 F). CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER
BUT OVERALL MAJORITY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. COOL DOWN REMAINS
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY (72-78 F
IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, 79-91 F IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF), BEFORE FALLING DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
FALLING INTO THE 40S F NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND TO NEAR 50 F ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THAT CORRIDOR. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED
VEGETATION, THIS STRONG GUSTY FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, INTERSTATE 20 AROUND MIDDAY AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY EARLY EVENING. 1030-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD
EAST OUT OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID WEST,
LEADING TO 6-8 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT
WIND OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30-35 MPH AT
TIMES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PEEKING INTO SIGNIFICANT RANGES FRIDAY WHEN A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED
FOR SATURDAY AS GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CUTS OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL AMPLIFY, WITH THE AXIS
OVER THE ARKLATEX. SEASONABLE, COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES WILL
BUILD AREAWIDE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HIGHS LOWER 70S F
SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE 70S F SUNDAY. LOWS DIP INTO MIDDLE 40S F
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND UPPER 40S F TO THE SOUTH). QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK, WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
DEVELOPING (TROUGH OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST US AND
ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST). LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND
DEEP DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES
(LOW 80S F EARLY WEEK TO MID TO UPPER 80S F BY LATE WEEK) AND LOWS
BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT, STRESSED
VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK (25 TO 35 PERCENT), FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY AS WE
APPROACH NEXT WEEK. /DC/86/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AS OF 1742Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
09Z, SOUTHERN TAF SITES (KHBG, KPIB, AND KHEZ) WILL START TO SEE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP TO IFR/LIFR STATUS DUE TO LOW STRATUS
AND PATCH DENSE FOG, WITH VFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH MS THROUGH 14Z FRIDAY. AFTER
14Z, CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR. WINDS BE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BY 13Z FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH OUR AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 81 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 85 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 62 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 90 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 80 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 65 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
LP/LP/CR
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