980
FXUS64 KJAN 200814
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
WITH THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS IMPACTS IN OUR AREA VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID AND UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND ROCKIES, PAIRED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS, WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS
IN SOME AREAS AND HEAT INDICES OVER 105F AND EXCEEDING 110F AT
TIMES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S IN MOST AREAS, AND POSSIBLY AROUND 80
IN SOME SPOTS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED MORNING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT AREAWIDE, EXCEPT IN THE UPPER DELTA WHERE AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THESE WERE BOTH EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY,
AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
EXPANSION OF THE WARNING POSSIBLE EITHER DAY.
AS WE ARE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, THERE WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY,
PROVIDING AT LEAST TEMPORARY HEAT RELIEF FOR SOME. A FEW STORMS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WORTHY OF AN OUTLOOK AT THIS
TIME.
TD 2 IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. IN SPITE
OF ITS RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY, THE ODDS OF HAZARDOUS IMPACTS
TO OUR AREA REMAINS VERY LOW. THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN THE
HEAT IMPACTS LOCALLY WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEK, STEERING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, IT APPEARS INCREASING SHEAR MAY
DISPLACE MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT UP TO
THE HWY 98 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH
PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
AGAIN HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS THIS FAR NORTH
IS VERY LOW.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A DIGGING ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL
BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND EVENTUALLY FALL APART. WHILE WE WON'T BE ABLE TO TURN
OFF THE ACS THANKS TO THIS FEATURE, IT WILL HELP TO CUT A FEW
DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AND BRING
DEWPOINTS FROM THE DISGUSTING CATEGORY TO A MORE TYPICAL AMOUNT
OF MISERY FOR JULY. WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH ALL THE
WAY THROUGH, DAYTIME HEAT STRESS LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EASTERN
SITES SO PROB30 WAS INCLUDED. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 77 97 76 / 20 10 20 0
MERIDIAN 97 76 96 75 / 30 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 97 78 98 79 / 20 10 20 0
HATTIESBURG 97 76 97 76 / 30 10 30 0
NATCHEZ 97 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 98 78 99 79 / 20 10 20 0
GREENWOOD 99 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ026>033-036>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ARZ074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR ARZ075.
DL/SAS
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