047
FXUS64 KLCH 131119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY, LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT
SAW RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) EXPECTED SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY A 20-30%
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FIVE KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SITES REPORTING CALM WINDS. THIS, ALONG
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WET GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATED NO LATER THAN 8 AM.
THE TROPICAL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. A RELATIVELY FLAT HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT TODAY ALONG WITH
CONTINUED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS IT HAS BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AWAY
FROM STORMS, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105-
110. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE THRESHOLD OF A HEAT ADVISORY,
BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT INDICES WILL EXCEED CRITERIA
ACROSS A BROAD ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
GUIDANCE IS IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INVADING FROM THE WEST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL DROP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 20% OR
LESS EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER DRIVING AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. THE NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY OCCUR AT TERMINALS
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE OR 13/13Z WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY 13/15Z WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE ADVANCING INLAND BY 13/17Z. WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR THE
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS TO COVER THIS. AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BY 14/00Z.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE WORKS INLAND. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEGLIGIBLE. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
PATCHY, LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE THIS
MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FOG OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS
THAT SAW PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO 20% OR LESS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEK. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...07
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