288
FXUS64 KLCH 230445
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NEAR THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE ASYMMETRICAL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS
OFFSHORE, SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
THROUGH SAINT MARY PARISH THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
- THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BEYOND THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND HOT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS CALMING THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOST IMPACTS WITH BERTHA WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE
SYSTEM.
HIGHLY SHEARED BERTHA IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE COAST
OF LA THIS EVENING. VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOTED WITH A MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE CAMERON AND VERMILION COAST WHILE
THE CENTER IS MORE TROF-LIKE AND LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
TERREBONNE PARISH. THE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SE TX LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WET WEATHER WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. STORM SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
FEET.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL DECREASE
RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
BERTHA WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ALONG
WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ADVECT IN BY EARLY MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL MOVE WEST NEAR THE COAST OF SW LA AND
SE TX THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTY AND
VERY CHOPPY WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG CURRENTS MAY ALSO OCCUR
AS THE CENTER PASSES AND WINDS SWITCH DIRECTIONS.
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074-252>254.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ615.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-
472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...05
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