247
FXUS64 KLCH 172333
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
- COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
ANOTHER WARM, HUMID AFTERNOON ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BY 9 AM.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THEY MIGHT
OTHERWISE REACH. THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM IN WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A BROAD
LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.8, STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PONDING
ON ROADWAYS AND A FEW AREAS OF STREET FLOODING. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GOOD FORWARD MOTION WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
FLOOD RISK AND QPF TOTALS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENTLY IN THE QUARTER
INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE WITH SOME GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE
EXPECTED. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS A NEAR CERTAINTY SUNDAY.
CAA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MONDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THIS PERIOD. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION TURNING
WINDS EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08-
09Z TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE,
BUT COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. AEX WILL SEE A SHIFT TO NW WINDS BY MID-AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PASSES. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT OTHER SITES AND THE MAJORITY
OF ASSOCIATED IMPACTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY
EVENING.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THESE WILL INCREASE SEAS TO BETWEEN 4-8 FEET SUNDAY. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY, BUT AT A MINIMUM, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING BACK ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM RH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 40-60%. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20 TO MID 30% RANGE.
THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS MAY
CREATE HAZARDOUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL AGAIN
FALL INTO THE 25-35% RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD WHICH WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...64
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