326
FXUS64 KLCH 051220
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
- WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CONVECTION HUNG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING, BUT STORMS HAVE COME TO AN END WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
50H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEADILY INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
POPS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY WANING AFTER
SUNSET. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST, ALTHOUGH LIMITED, RISK.
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SHORT PERIODS OF NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING. WITH STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER
NOON, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE BEFORE STORMS OFFER
INTERMITTENT RELIEF. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY DROPPING AFTERNOON POPS BACK INTO THE 20-40% RANGE WHERE
THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE SUPPRESSIVE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE WILL YIELD LESS CLOUD COVER AS WELL ALLOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO NUDGE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
AS MORNING BR BURNS OFF WITH THE RISING SUN, CUMULUS FIELD WILL
START TO GROW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SCATTERED TSRA ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SW WITH SOME VARIABLE COMPONENTS OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. VFR CONDITION WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD- SANS BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RA OR TS.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A MOISTENING AIRMASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FEWER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT.
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60
PERCENT. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...30
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