601
FXUS64 KLCH 121813
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS DEEP TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE GULF THAT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THAT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100
AND 107 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH THE HEAT RISK AT
THE MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 50H HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
REGION. GOES-PWAT INDICATE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH VALUES
ABOVE 2 INCHES AND NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO. RADAR
SHOWS ACTIVITY JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER, WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DEEPENS
OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO REGION STALLING NEAR THE ARKLATEX ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE, TRAJECTORIES WILL
BRING TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE UP FROM SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING
SOME ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY
WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING IN THE MORNING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE RISK
FOR FLOODING WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST DURING THIS EPISODE AND A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) OR BETWEEN A 15 AND 24 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING HAS BEEN OUTLINED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
ON MONDAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 2.25 INCHES WITH WITH
MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 80 PERCENT WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT
HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. ALSO, WARM CLOUD LAYER IS PROJECTED
AT 15K FEET OR HIGHER THAT WILL MAKE FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO
OCCUR. THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO HAVE
HIGH RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. WITH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE 85H-70H THETA-E RIDGE AND MEAN
STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, THE HIGH RAIN RATES MAY STAY
OVER A LOCATION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD INCREASING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND A FLOOD RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING AND URBAN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER PWAT WILL
STAY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 70
PERCENT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT WILL THEN INCREASE,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT JUST TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES ARE EXPECTED
WITH MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 107 DEGREES. THE HEAT
RISK IS PROGGED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4)
RANGE, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF. HOW STRONG THE RIDGE STAYS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE
OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OR NOT. AT THIS TIME, LOOKS THE
MAIN MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER
12/20Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
CONVECTION THAT NEARS OR MOVES OVER A TERMINAL WILL BRING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE INLAND AFTER 13/02Z, HOWEVER
WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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