023
FXUS64 KLCH 191138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AS THESE WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE AND BECOME EASTERLY
- GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WINDS ACQUIRE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENTS
- HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO RETURN BY THE MID WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WANE OFF THIS COAST THIS MORNING
AS COOL CONTINENTAL AIR POURS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND BEGIN CLEARING BY MIDDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRYING OUT THE MID LEVELS. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN PATCHES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER BY 10-15F- TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 70S. GALE TRANSITIONING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY EASING AND ABATING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXIT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY WITH THE FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FACILITATING MODERATE RIDGING OFF THE GULF COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RECOVER
INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WINDS VEER EASTERLY. WITH SOME FETCH COOLER
WATERS BELOW THE ATCHAFALAYA DELTA, SKIES WILL RETAIN SOME CLOUD
COVER. THE SKIES BEGIN TO THICKEN ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ORGANIZES OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS MONDAY, IN THE MID 70S. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH A
LITTLE MORE MODEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL LA. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DO INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH FETCHES MORE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY WHILE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE COASTAL TROUGH ALLOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF RAINFALL LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, WILL FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. THE
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EAST. GIVEN MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELING KEEPS
THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A RAPID ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. INSTEAD, A GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CDFNT IS NOW OFFSHORE WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE I-10 TERMINALS UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THESE RAINS
WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRISK AND GUSTY NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE EASING OFF THIS
EVENING.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE CRITERIA FOR THE WESTERN
MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT,
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GULF WATERS WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE REMAINING GULF WATERS AND ALL LAKES/BAYS FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT INTO
THE EVENING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES (EXCLUDING LAKES AND BAYS) THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THEREAFTER BUT ONLY BORDERLINE WITH SCA
CRITERIA CONSIDERING ABATING SEAS.
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KT, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE GAINING MORE SSE COMPONENTS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTH TX COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY- AROUND 20-25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS
AND MUCH DRIER AIR (MINRH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AFTER RECEIVING A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING
RAINFALL, MOST FIRE CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK THEREFORE NO
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED DURING THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THIS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY, BUT FIRE
CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER, AROUND 5-10
KT. BY TUESDAY, THE WINDS BEGIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL
INCREASE RH AND CHANCES FOR SUBSEQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THAT HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ470-472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...13
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