516
FXUS64 KLCH 242321
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
621 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25-40% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW CENTERED OVERHEAD PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS AROUND 591 DAM, EXCEEDING 95TH PERCENTILE. AT THE SURFACE,
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE BIG PICTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, YIELDING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE COLUMN IS DRY WITH GOES-DERIVED PWAT IN THE
0.6 TO 0.8 INCH RANGE, ROUGHLY 25TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY. ALL THIS IS RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER CLOUDLESS DAY
ACROSS THE CWA (AND FOR THAT MATTER, THE ENTIRE STATE OF LOUISIANA
AND MOST OF THE SOUTH), WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BROADEN
AND MIGRATE EASTWARD, WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK OUT OF THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR
AREA WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW, CLEAR SKIES, AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST TX AND
CENTRAL LA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND CLOSER TO 60
ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREA-WIDE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIGRATING OVERHEAD TUESDAY, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE HOPING FOR RAIN, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PROFILE OVERHEAD WILL BE QUITE DRY, WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER OUR CWA.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT EVEN IF THIS DOES
OCCUR, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE NEGLIGIBLE AND WOULD DO
LITTLE TO IMPROVE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BY MIDWEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO ACQUIRE MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA. LREF MEAN PWAT RISES TO 1.5 INCHES BY THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK, WHICH WOULD BE 85TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 60S AREAWIDE. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A WARMING TREND IN BOTH
DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING STILL IN CONTROL, NO REAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INITIALLY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS IS INHERENTLY
VERY LOW AT THIS LEAD TIME, BUT IF THE WETTER END OF THE GUIDANCE
VERIFIES, THIS WAVE COULD REPRESENT THE FIRST MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
FOR MANY AREAS IN WEEKS.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WEAK, BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TURNING WINDS PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 14Z SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW (APPROX 20%
CHANCE) OF GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THINK THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LIMIT, IF NOT
OUTRIGHT PREVENT, FOG DEVELOPMENT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL TIGHTEN AND ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. BREEZY EAST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF MARINE ZONES EAST OF
CAMERON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ANY OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO MONDAY, BUT THEREAFTER
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON RH
DROPPING TO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
VERY DRY FUELS IN PLACE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT,
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY FACTOR PREVENTING A MORE SERIOUS FIRE
RISK, WITH FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 5-10 MPH. NO MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS
DO LOOK TO BEGIN A SLOW MOISTENING TREND BY MIDWEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...66
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