866
FXUS64 KLCH 191942
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
242 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR INDICES UP TO
110F. ANOTHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AREA-WIDE FROM 12 PM TO 8
PM THURSDAY, ALSO FOR INDICES UP TO 111F.
- HEAT STRESS LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO ALL OF LOUISIANA BY FRIDAY. EXTREME HEAT RISK
LEVELS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
- VEGETATION WILL CONTINUE DRYING WITH THESE CONDITIONS. CHECK
WITH YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR BURN BANS ACROSS SETX AND CEN/SWLA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THERE ARE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENTS FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST WHICH
LOOK TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. HIGHER HEAT INDICES,
OFFSET HIGH PRESSURE AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OF RAIN??
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, APPARENT TEMPS OVER THE AREA ARE
UP BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES; THE INCREASE IN OVERALL HEAT THAT WE
ANTICIPATED. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO DOWN THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN, ARE IN A HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FOR INDICES UP TO 110F.
OVERHEAD, HEIGHTS AREN'T AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE, OR WERE
FORECAST TO BE. THE MAIN DOME OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW SITS
IN SOUTH CALIFORNIA, WITH WEAKENING RIDGE EXPANDING OUT FROM THERE
INTO THE NORTH GULF STATES. A WESTWARD JOG OF THE HIGH WAS
EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF UPPER TROF AMPLIFYING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. BUT NOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EAST MEXICO HAS FURTHER
SHUNTED THE RIDGE. MOISTURE HAS MADE THE MOST OF THIS NEWFOUND
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND SO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS
DEVELOPED.
AS IS TYPICAL OF THE SUMMER RIDGE, SEVERE WEATHER TENDS TO RIDE
THE OUTER PERIPHERY. TODAY, STORMS ARE SET TO TRACK ALONG A LINE
FROM OK TO WEST TN, SOUTH THROUGH MS AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST LA. ANY
STORMS SHOULD BE BLUNTED AWAY FROM CENLA, BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING DECAYING SHOWERS MOVING INTO CENLA LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS VERY
CONDITIONAL BASED ON UPPER SUBSIDENCE OR LACK THEREOF. ANYTHING
THAT CAN SURVIVE WILL NOT CARRY WITH THEM WIDESPREAD NOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.
HIGH SHOULD RETURN OVERTOP THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE PULSE
MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD WITH IT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY END AT THE MS LINE SINCE MID AND SFC LEVEL
RIDGE OVERLAP IN THIS PERIOD, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGE IN THAT POSSIBILITY.
NO MATTER THE RAIN CHANCES, VERY HOT AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HEAT WAVE DRAGS ON, AND NOW WITH
THE RETURN OF LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY, HEAT RISK WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY TO END THE WORK WEEK. AREAS IN CENLA AND DOWN THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME HEAT STRESS (LEVEL 4 OF
4) FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. EVERYWHERE ELSE, MAJOR HEAT STRESS
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON THURSDAY WILL BECOME EXTREME LEVELS FRIDAY TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS LONG-DURATION HEAT EVENT WILL BE IMPACTFUL TO THOSE WITH ANY
PERIOD OF EXPOSURE, AND ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO COOLING
/ HYDRATION TO RECOVER. DO NOT TAKE THESE TEMPERATURES LIGHTLY,
AND STAY AS COOL AND HYDRATED AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS NO REAL END IN
SIGHT FOR THIS PATTERN WE FIND OURSELVES IN. EXPECT HEAT HAZARDS
TO BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, A BIT
FURTHER FROM THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS HAS MOVED
MUCH OF THE OPPRESSIVE RIDGE OFF OF THE NORTHWEST GULF, AND SO
MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY SEEPED BACK INLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED A MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS ALSO BEEN INDUCED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AND INLAND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LOUISIANA. THUS, IT'S A
LIGHTLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR, BUT FAIR-WEATHER, CUMULUS OVER
THE REGION.
A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME EARLY SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH FROM NORTH TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ROUGHLY 03
TO 06Z. THESE WOULD BE THE REMNANTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANY TERMINALS COULD SEE
ACTIVITY FROM THIS, IT WOULD BE AEX, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OVERNIGHT WITH FALLING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WINDS PICK UP ONCEMORE ON FRIDAY MORNING
AFTER 12Z AND WILL BE VARIABLE FROM THE WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER GULF WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS IN A
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE COMING DAYS. AS THE
LAND HEATS UP EACH DAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AN 8 TO 12 KNOT
BREEZE. SEAS MAY BE A LIGHT CHOP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EACH DAY, BUT
SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 2 FEET RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOME SHIFTED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING,
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER RETURN OF HUMIDITY TO THE REGION FROM TODAY
TO THURSDAY. OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, HOWEVER, AS HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION CLEAR OF RAINFALL. THERE IS A SMALL
SIGNAL FOR DYING SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL
OFFSET FROM THE GULF. THIS IS A LOW CHANCE AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
CAN SURVIVE WILL NOT HAVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WITH THEM. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A WETTING RAIN.
LOOK TO YOUR LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR BURN BAN INFORMATION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-
044-045-055-143-153-154-253-254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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