197
FXUS64 KLCH 241143
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 20-35% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND COOL TEMPS IS ONGOING
AS WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER AIR/WATER
VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST PROVIDING A
NORTHERLY FLOW ABOUT 500MB. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS,
PROVING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE WE ARE STILL
VERY DRY OVERALL, MOISTURE HAS STARTED TO TICK UP SLIGHTLY WITH A
THE 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.94" THIS EVENING (UP FROM
0.77" 24 HOURS AGO), WHICH IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE BUT CLOSER TO THE
~40TH PERCENTILE. WHILE THIS WON'T REALLY BE NOTICEABLE OVERALL, IT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ACROSS
LOWER SE TX AND SW LA, WHERE TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S. ELSEWHERE, MORE OF THE SAME LOW TO MID 50S ARE
EXPECTED.
TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE IT WILL
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE/LOWER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUES
TO DOMINATED THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO REINFORCE
THE ONGOING DRY PATTERN, AND WITH UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD ANY TOUCH
OF MOISTURE RETURN TONIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY SQUASHED, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 0.5-0.8" RANGE BY
SUNDAY WHICH IS NEAR TO BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AREA-WIDE SAT-MON
NIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE IN THE LOWER 80S SUN-TUES.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDWEEK,
BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE LONGER FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
AFTER A SEASONAL START TO THE DAY, MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO BROADEN OUT, ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE W TO SW. DEWPOINTS START TO CREEP UP BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST,
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 FOR
WED MORNING. THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, SLOW MOISTURE
RETURN CONTINUES BUT RAIN CHANCES DON'T MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE
FORECAST UNTIL AROUND THE START OF THE WEEKEND. INSTEAD, A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS/OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WED-FRI.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL LINGER NEXT HOUR OR TWO HOURS FROM THIS
TRANSMISSION. THE FOG IS VERY PATCHY AND AT SOME TERMINALS HAS
TEMPO'D INTO IFR/LIFR VIS THROUGH LAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS SIGNAL BEGINNING TO DECREASE ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO FULLY RESUME THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED, LIKELY GAINING
SOME PREVAILING EASTERLY COMPONENTS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH TODAY
AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD TIGHTENS. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THIS ELONGATED PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CLIMB TO 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND FROM 4-8 FEET FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE OUTER ZONES FROM CAMERON
EASTWARD, THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXPENDED FURTHER OVER THE COMING FORECAST CYCLES. ELSEWHERE, BOATERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE COMBINATION OF WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND OUT OF
THE ENE/E. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30
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