227
FXUS64 KLCH 040526
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TODAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECTED TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
WORK EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT EIGHT HOURS OR SO ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE. WITH THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COME
INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY AS DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB FROM THE
LOWER 50S THIS MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S BY THIS EVENING. THERETURN
FLOW WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TODAY FOR ONE MORE DAY OF PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WITH BETTER MOISTURE TRANSITS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MUCH MORE MUGGY FEELING ON
THE GROUND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ANOTHER NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PUSHED BACK THE FROPA BY ABOUT 6-12 HOURS
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHILE FURTHER INCREASING THE
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STRONG INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH DETAILS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND PROBABILITIES
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT THIS ONE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS "CLEAN" AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES AND
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE SO DON'T CANCEL LATE WEEK OR WEEKEND PLANS JUST YET.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6-12 KNOTS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AND/OR STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TODAY BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS
WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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