653
FXUS64 KLCH 041236
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
736 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING AND
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BE MINDFUL OF THE DAILY
STORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY
IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND RATHER UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT, A WEAKNESS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD, WHICH RESULTED IN A GOOD SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY TODAY, MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
STAGNANT.
A QUIET AND WARM START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS LACK OF ANY REAL STEERING
MECHANISM WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING. STILL,
MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM AND
TOASTY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 100S THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND DIE OFF AS WE APPROACH SUNSET THIS EVENING, JUST IN TIME FOR THE
MANY PLANNED FIREWORKS SHOWS AND 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES PLANNED
ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FURTHER,
ALLOWING A BREAK TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE ALOFT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION
TRIGGERS WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. BY THE MID TO LATER HALF OF THE WEEK RIDGING START
TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN, TAMPERING RAIN CHANCES DOWN
ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING ABOUT MORE SEASONAL, REPETITIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE WITHIN VICINITY PROXIMITY OR
FURTHER, THEREFORE NO PREVAILING PERIODS OF TS WERE INCLUDED.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY SW
COMPONENTS.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
MOIST AIRMASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY A
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30
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