136
FXUS64 KLCH 121940
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH RAIN RATES WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME WILL BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE BEING FELT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S ALLOWING THE HEAT INDEX TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AND WITH LESS
INHIBITION AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INDICATIONS CONTINUE FOR A RATHER ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH OVERALL CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, JUST
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING WHEN THE STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, SIGNATURES FOR HEAVY RAIN PERSIST
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT WILL
MOVE WESTWARD AND INTO EASTERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. NHC HAS OUTLINED
A 20% CHANCE OF FORMATION, HOWEVER, OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH ANY SURFACE
LOW WEAK AND MERGING INTO A FRONTAL ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIG DOWN TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY WITH A MOIST SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTHERN GULF, WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING EAST
PAC TROPICAL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH LEFT OVER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WAVE THAT MOVES INTO MEXICO, INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO VERY MOIST AIR MASSES WILL BRING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AND TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PROGS SHOW
PWAT BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.5 INCHES WHICH IS
WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND BOTH AVERAGE MAX MOVING AND
DAILY MAX VALUES. GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOTED WITH 100H-
50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 90 PERCENT. ALSO LARGE WARM
CLOUD LAYERS UP TO 15K FEET WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT WARM PRECIP
PROCESSES. THIS ALL LEADS TO A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS THAT WILL
BRING CONVECTION WITH HIGH RAIN RATES.
MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE 85H-70H THETA-E
RIDGE TO GO ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS PROJECTED AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THEREFORE, POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY BRING
ABOUT HIGH RAIN RATES OVER LOCATIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.
CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT OCCASIONAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WPC AND FORECASTED RAINFALL 2 DAY
TOTALS DURING THAT PERIOD BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES, WHILE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM OR THE REASONABLY HIGHEST AMOUNTS PAINT THE
FORECAST WITH BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCH 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING BEGINNING
WITH MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) TO SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 4) RISK OR BETWEEN 5
AND 39 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING FOR VARIOUS TIMES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DAYTIME AND THE SEA BREEZE.
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO WIDESPREAD SO WILL JUST HAVE
VCSH AT KARA/KLFT FOR NOW. ALSO, MAY SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
AT THOSE TERMINALS IF A SHOWER MOVES ACROSS.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET OR
AROUND 13/01Z. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE FOR KAEX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS,
OTHERWISE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL BE GENERALLY RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW
TO MODEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED AT BEST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. DESPITE THE MOISTURE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
MEETING UP WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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