781
FXUS64 KLCH 250540
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 25-35% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANOTHER CLEAR, COOL NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS HOUR. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VERY PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO
SUNRISE, BUT THESE PROBS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND MAINTAINING A CONSISTENT EASTERLY WIND. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES, COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MAY OFFER A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER,
BUT NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND IT'S
ENERGY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AS RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TURNING WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE THE DUEL EFFECT OF MODERATING OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING THE FIRST APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THE REGION HAS SEEN IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING JUST IN TIME TO POTENTIALLY
INTERRUPT WEEKEND HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES. AT DAY 7, THE FORECAST
REMAINS VERY BROAD, BUT FOR THOSE MAKING PLANS, IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO HAVE AN INDOOR ALTERNATIVE TO ANY OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
DEVELOPING GROUND FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
TURN EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN TONIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
BREEZY EAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF MARINE ZONES EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ANY
OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LATER INTO MONDAY, BUT THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
AFTERNOON RH DROPPING TO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH VERY DRY FUELS IN PLACE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS, THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO BEGIN A SLOW MOISTENING TREND
BY MIDWEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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