970
FXUS64 KLCH 200536
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1236 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIGHT EAST WINDS ACQUIRE MORE SOUTHEAST
COMPONENTS
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES UP THE TX COAST. A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, HUMID CONDITIONS, AND ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
MODERATE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OFF THE GULF COAST. AS THIS
FEATURES SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WINDS WILL
ACQUIRE EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP SKIES PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS SET TO ORGANIZE OVER NEW
MEXICO, AS GULF MOISTURE FILTERS ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WITH A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT, MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.
AS THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER
TEXAS ON TUESDAY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT EASTWARD WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CONCURRENTLY, SURFACE-
850MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE, CAPPING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT A LITTLE THICKER CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES- MOST NOTABLY ACROSS OUR SETX COUNTIES WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED. CITIES FURTHER EAST TOWARD AND
ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WHERE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SINK TOWARD THE TX / LA
COASTLINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME, IT IS LIKELY SOME
EVAPORATION WILL OCCUR BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES IMPROVE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH A LITTLE
STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE, THOUGH
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. WINDS
WILL BE ACQUIRING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST COMPONENTS ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD BACK TO THE UPPER 70'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WORTH NOTING,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INHIBITED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER YIELDS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER LOW LEVEL
CAPPING WILL ERODE TO ALLOW WARM RAIN CLOUD PROCESSES TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT EFFICIENT ALONG SETX AND FAR SWLA. SHOULD THE FORECAST
TREND TO FURTHER WARMING OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS, A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES LIFT BACK INTO THE LOW 80S WHILE LINGERING
ISOLATED POPS STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCES
FILLS AND BROADENS EASTWARD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN 48 WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER ALL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OUT OF THE EAST WITH PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND OUT OF THE EAST TODAY AND GAIN
MORE SE COMPONENTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AND PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MEANDERS AROUND
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE SOUTH TX COASTLINE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
START TO ERODE TO THE EAST BY THE LATE WEEK, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES
TO COME DOWN, WHILE WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10-15KTS RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH MINRH
RANGING 28-38%, HOWEVER, ANY FIRE CONCERNS WILL DECREASE AS WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER, AROUND 5-10 KT. BY TUESDAY, THE WINDS BEGIN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL INCREASE RH AND CHANCES FOR
SUBSEQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THAT HELP MITIGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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