159
FXUS64 KLCH 261753
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL DEVELOP AROUND AND AFTER 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
- LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
-WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE INITIALIZING ON RADAR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF A HUMID LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK TROFFING WORKING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WILL FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BOTH INLAND AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 8-9 PM CST. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN FOG WILL CLEAR
AS BOTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY ITSELF ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TYPICAL FOG DISSIPATION CYCLE. REGARDLESS, ALL FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
GONE NO LATER THAN 15Z FRIDAY.
STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN PRE AND POST FRONTAL AIRMASSES OTHER THAN A BIT OF A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS WHICH, IN TURN, WILL SEND AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WARM, BUT
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD.
JONES
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THE WARM, HUMID, BUT GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN BREEZY
WEDNESDAY AND NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AT
PRESENT, THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT
THIS WILL BE MONITORED INTO NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
BKN TO OVC VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BEGIN OBSERVED ON RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS, BUT
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXPLICIT
INCLUSION IN TAFS. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z FRIDAY POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE BETWEEN 06
AND 14Z. THIS FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
CREATE POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN FOG. REGARDLESS, BOTH THE FOG AND
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY 14Z WITH
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING AS SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 5 PM THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ELEVATED
SEAS OF 6-8 FEET FROM THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SEAS FOLLOWING SUIT TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
TURNING LIGHT WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY TURNING WINDS BACK ONSHORE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM, HUMID AIRMASS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S, MINIMUM RH VALUES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL FALL INTO THE 35-50% RANGE AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 57 77 51 79 / 50 10 0 0
LCH 62 80 56 78 / 20 10 0 0
LFT 63 79 56 80 / 40 20 0 0
BPT 61 82 57 79 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ470-
472-475.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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