415
FXUS64 KLCH 131119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- WINDS, LOW RH, AND WINTER TIME ELEVATED ERC PERCENTILES SUGGEST
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A DRY FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS CREATING A LIGHT AND VRB FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS CEN LA TO THE
MID 40S ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE. WHILE A FEW CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA PATCHY FROST MAY OCCUR WHERE TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. ALOFT A DISTURBANCE IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET.
TODAY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER.
WHILE MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
THE PACIFIC, THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT HAVE GOTTEN
UNDERWAY TO PROVIDE ANY MEANINGFUL SURFACE MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR, HOWEVER MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AND CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LESS. THE WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLDER AIRMASS WILL AGAIN PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH FRIDAY MORNING'S LOWS IN THE 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE NEXT RIDGE WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL PUSH BACK IN
WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5 KTS BY THE MID-
MORNING HOURS, WITH LIGHT MAINLY SW WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THIS DISTURBANCE DRAWS CLOSER HOWEVER, LEFT
MENTION OF RA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF THIS PRECIP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 43 62 34 / 10 30 0 0
LCH 59 46 67 39 / 10 10 0 0
LFT 60 46 66 37 / 10 20 0 0
BPT 60 46 68 38 / 20 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
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