406
FXUS64 KLCH 012325
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY SKIES FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL PROVIDE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
- NO TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MODEST SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EASING TO SLACK
TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND TX IS ALLOWING LIGHT SW
BREEZES THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE IS A FLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
PULLED INTO THE LOW LEVELS, OVERALL DEWPOINTS AREN'T IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, BEING A
SUMMERTIME ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SETX / SWLA MODELS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
BEFORE INSTABILITIES FALLS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BROADEN AND AMPLIFY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD,
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
HARD-PRESSED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE ARKLATEX. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES
ARE KEPT TO AN ISOLATED EXTENT DURING THE SHORT RANGE.
MORE CONCERNING ARE THE DAILY HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH REGARDING MID AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARMEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO HEDGE TOWARD
HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS DO BORDER CLOSE
TO CRITERIA BRIEFLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS SO CAUTION IN OVER
EXPOSURE TO OUTSIDE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXERCISED REGARDLESS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK IS NOT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION
EITHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTEND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION WHILE OFFERING NO
FORCING MECHANISMS TO INITIATE ORGANIZED WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SURFACE HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE HOW SURFACE RH RESPONDS AS THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HEDGING
FACTOR TOWARD HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS THAT MAY BE ISSUED IN THE LONG
RANGE. WORTH NOTING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LOW LEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND IS EXTENDING
ACROSS OUR REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED IN THE GULF WILL YIELD
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE CALM
SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE NHC HAS PLACED A 30%
INVEST AREA IN THE EASTERN GULF AND WEST ATLANTIC ALONG FL. THIS
AREA MAY EXPAND TO BROADER COASTAL TROUGH YIELDING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST AND
NEARSHORE WATERS, HOWEVER, NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
LOCALLY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES STAYING NEAR 50%.
KBDI VALUES HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS NOW REACHING THE
400-550 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 94 74 95 / 30 20 10 10
LCH 77 94 76 93 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 77 92 76 92 / 20 50 20 30
BPT 74 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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