070
FXUS64 KLCH 091849
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
149 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY WEATHER AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO SATURDAY.
-SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY BRINGING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.
-AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEK BRINGING LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS, TIDES ALONG THE COAST, AND WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DRY AIR AROUND THE CIRCULATION WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT LOOKS NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, MAINLY THE HEAVY
WOODED PINEY WOODS AREA ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS GUSTY AND THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
BY SUNDAY, WHAT IS LEFT OF ISAIAS WILL BE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT SHOULD HELP WITH THE FIRE DANGER.
FOR NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WILL PERSIST. SO, LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE, THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS MAKING FOR VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO ALABAMA ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS UNTIL SUNSET
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WINDS, SEAS, AND TIDES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BEHIND THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND BRING A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES UP INTO ALABAMA. THIS WILL KEEP RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ON
SATURDAY. WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, PLACES MAINLY IN THE
PINEY WOODS DOWN TO I-10 WILL HAVE A FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY. FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>032-141-
241.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ073-
074-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ259>262-516-
616.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ615.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ435-436-450-
452-455-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page