661
FXUS64 KLCH 132325
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE IN
THE REGION.
- MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES SHOULD RANGE FROM 101 TO 107F EACH DAY. NO
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.
- MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE STARTING IN THE MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY HAS UNFOLDED IN THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND WARM
CONDITIONS. TEMPS ARE SITTING IN THE 80S FOR THOSE WITH NEARBY
RAINFALL WHILE THOSE FURTHER INLAND OR AWAY FROM SHOWERS HOVERING
IN THE LOWER 90S. A FEW SPORADIC OBSERVATIONS HAVE FLIRTED WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 106F RANGE OVER THE LAST HOUR,
A CONSEQUENCE OF SLOW SFC MIXING. THESE OBS AREN'T LASTING LONG,
THOUGH, AS DEWPOINTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL.
SOME AREAS MAY BRIEFLY WARM OVER THE 108F ADVISORY THRESHOLD, BUT
THIS IS NEITHER WIDESPREAD NOR LONG-LASTING ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THROWING OUT AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THESE CONSIDERATIONS ARE INFORMING THE DECISION FOR AN ADVISORY ON
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER THE REGION FROM
TODAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL DRIVE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY AND
DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES, BOTH HELPING TO NUDGE OUTDOOR HEAT INDICES
UPWARDS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE AIRMASS, LOW LEVEL HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE,
CUTTING OFF GULF FLOW AND INTRODUCING A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
TO THE NORTH GULF. IT'S NOT A BIG SWEEPING CHANGE OF AIRMASSES,
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND MIDLEVEL RH VALUES
FROM 80 TO ROUGHLY 65 PERCENT. STILL HUMID BUT LESS SO THAN WE'VE
HAD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO PAINT A DISTINCT INVERTED V AT THE SFC;
ALL POINTING TO INCREASED MIXING TO KEEP INDICES IN CHECK. AS OF
NOW, MAX INDICES FROM 101 TO 106F ARE EXPECTED AND NO HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. IF COMING GUIDANCE ADJUSTS
ITS EXPECTATIONS OF HEAT DISTRIBUTION, AN ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS CONDITIONS GET
WARMER AND DRIER EACH DAY.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY
DRY WITH MILD ONSHORE WINDS. SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASING FETCH TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL MEANDER AROUND UNTIL SUNDOWN.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY
EXACERBATE FIRE CONDITIONS. DAYTIME MIXING AS RESULTED IN
SPORADIC AND RANDOM WIND DIRECTIONS AND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM TODAY THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY. DRY AIR WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION, MIXING
DOWN AND LOWERING DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...14
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