474
FXUS64 KLCH 010505
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FROM 1 PM - 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, BUT BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
- A FEW, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30%
RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES WILL SHORTLY BE UNDERWAY. THE HIGHEST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS LATER TODAY GIVING WAY TO
A SOUTHWARD DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING OFF OF POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOW LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND POINTS EAST. EVEN THERE POPS
ONLY RANGE FROM 20-50%. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, THE DRY SPELL
CONTINUES. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOT A PHRASE I'M ACCUSTOMED TO USING
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST) WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY AND ADVECT SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACT TO DAILY HIGHS OR LOWS, BUT
THE AIR WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE GULF BY MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMING REESTABLISHED WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE 70S. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SO SOME 60S DEWPOINTS
MAY BE ABLE TO MIX BACK DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SEES A RETURN TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED
AUGUST AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS THE RIDGE
WON'T BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WILL
BE FEWER THAN NORMAL. OTHERWISE, DAILY HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-109
RANGE.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IVO LFT OR ARA AFTER 05Z SUNDAY, BUT PROBS ARE
ONLY AROUND 20% THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PACKAGE.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FURTHER WITH
SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BRIEFLY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH'S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-50% RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ201-515-615.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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