185
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 102-109F.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A 30-70% CHANCE OF RAIN. SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, BUT BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
- A FEW, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON RANGED
FROM 100-109. THIS JUSTIFIED THE HEAT ADVISORY ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY
OF LOCATIONS REMAINED BELOW THE THRESHOLD. WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR THIS AFTERNOON, A REPEAT OF
MAX HEAT INDICES IN THAT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, PART OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE "OMEGA"
BLOCK PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH GUIDANCE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. BEING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST, IT WOULD BE
TOO MUCH TO ASK FOR ANY COOLER AIR TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP SOME CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. QPF TOTALS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT WILL
BE THE FIRST APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF PRECIP THE AREA HAS SEEN IN OVER
A WEEK.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE AREA WILL SEE A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WHICH MAY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 60S WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS IN
THIS PART OF THE WORLD IN AUGUST. THIS WON'T TRANSLATE INTO ANY
ACTUAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, BUT THE AIR MAY FEEL A BIT LESS
OPPRESSIVELY HOT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH.
THE REGION WILL SPEND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A FEW, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS, TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE LOWER THAN TYPICAL OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AS
WELL AS LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MOISTURE IS ON ITS RETURN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING
TO RELAX. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN
CREEPING IN AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL MIX DOWN TO A
BREEZE OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING
WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS NOW MOVING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE, AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST, HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INVADING TODAY.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
15-20 KNOTS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY BRINGING
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH'S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-50% RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN
BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...11
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