875
FXUS64 KLCH 080521
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH HIT OR MISS MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH A PROBABILITY
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHOW A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOIST LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING IN HIGH HUMIDITY. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN A BIT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND ON OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. DO NOT SEE ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE
WEAKNESS. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WEAK INHIBITION THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE, ALONG WITH OTHER MESO SCALE
BOUNDARIES, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME OF THE STORMS
AGAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE
SOME ISSUES IF THEY OCCUR OVER URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO, SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ALSO LOOK NEAR NORMAL AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S, SO DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL HELP KEEP AIR TEMPERATURES FROM BEING EXTREME AND ALSO
KEEPING AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 AND BELOW
ANY HEAT HAZARDS.
GUIDANCE IS STILL CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH, ALONG WITH A SURGE IN DEEPER MOISTURE, MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US RETREATS TO THE WEST AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. PWAT INCREASES TO OVER
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, ALONG WITH 100H-50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER 75 PERCENT. THE WAVE WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE.
THEREFORE, SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH DAYTIME HEATING TO GET ACTIVITY
GOING ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BE
CENTERED NEAR THE REGION BY MID WEEK PERSISTING UNTIL THE END OR THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED AT
BEST, WITH A LIKELY INCREASE IN AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS
AND THE HEAT RISK.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS,
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE OR BETWEEN 08/11-13Z.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER REPEAT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE
WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE CLOSER TO SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE OVERALL ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER WITH AN INCREASE IN THE KBDI. WITH LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FROM MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 60
PERCENT. A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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