375
FXUS64 KLCH 091131
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH HIT OR MISS MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH A PROBABILITY
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WX MAP CURRENTLY HAS A SLACK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS RIDGE HAS HELPED USHER IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF / ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE/00Z UPPER ANALYSIS REVEALS PWATS
BORDERING THE THE PERCENTILE. GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER HEALTHY SCATTERED ROUND OF SHOWERS /
STORMS BUILDING DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER SUNSET WITH THE DIURNAL DRIVEN COMPONENT OF INSTABILITY
DIMINISHED, THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS ON MONDAY INDICATING A
LOCALIZED COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND LIFT INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THEREFORE, DO EXPECT MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS.
WORTH NOTING DUE TO HIGH PWATS AND LOW UP SHEAR CORFIDI VECTORS,
SOME STORMS MAY BE STAGNANT AND PRODUCE 2-3"/HR RAINFALL RATES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ALONG COMMON ROADWAYS. DESPITE
BEING IN A SUMMER PATTERN WHERE FLOODING IS LESS EXPECTED, SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY CAN INDUCE VERY LOCALIZED,
BUT HAZARDOUS FLOODING. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY A COPY AND PASTE
FORECAST AS THIS WET PATTERN REMAINS INTO TUESDAY. LESS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, AS THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS PULLED EAST.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE
WEST AND QUICKLY ENVELOPS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES OF RAINFALL FALL OFF THE FORECAST BOARD
GIVEN EXPECTED MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE, HOWEVER, SURFACES MAY REMAIN
QUITE HUMID DEPENDING ANTECEDENT RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM / HOT CONDITIONS
THAT COULD LEAD TO HEAT RELATED FATIGUE / ILLNESSES WITHOUT PROPER
HYDRATION OR BREAKS SHELTERING AWAY FROM DIRECT SUN / HEAT.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AFTER SUNRISE THE FOG WILL START TO FADE AWAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. STATING AROUND NOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH VCTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
MVFR/IFR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CONDITONS WILL BE VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE
WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUES AS
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SKIRTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY IS FAVORED CLOSER TO SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AGAIN SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE OVERALL ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER WITH AN INCREASE IN THE KBDI. WITH LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FROM MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 60
PERCENT. A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...14
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