536
FXUS64 KLCH 041103
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
603 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WHILE BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.
- ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 15 TO
30% RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE SIT BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO OUR EAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF
WILL KEEP OUR WINDS FROM THE SOUTH BUT WITH NO SURFACE LOW TO
INCREASE OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BECAUSE
WE ARE BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS, OUR WINDS ALOFT ARE FROM THE
NORTH, PUSHING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO OUR UPPER AND MID LEVELS.
THIS DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN OUR 0Z SOUNDING WITH A STRONG CAP AT
700 MB. WHILE WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME CONVECTION, IT HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO THE SEA BREEZE AND HAS BEEN SHALLOW. THE MIXING OF THE
DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE HAS HELPED KEEP OUR DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND HAS KEPT THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX AROUND 105,
WHICH IS BELOW THE 108 NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. SOUNDINGS OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT, WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL EXPECTATIONS.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL
DISSIPATE AND RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 40% AND 60% WITH SHOWERS MAINLY BEING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS RETURNING TO
THE REGION WHICH HAS FOUND ITSELF UNDERNEATH A WEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BACK WEST TODAY, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COVERAGE
SHOULD BEGIN NEAR LCH AND INCREASE TOWARDS THE EAST INTO LOWER
ACADIANA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOLS. COASTAL TERMINAL TAFS
REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION IN RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
EXPECT LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN A SOUTHERLY WIND
DEVELOPS WITH THE SEABREEZE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH
SUNDOWN.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WAVES WILL STAY BELOW 3 FEET. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AROUND 10%.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KBDI VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB, SITTING BETWEEN 500 TO 600 ACROSS
THE REGION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE FROM 40% TO
60% FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...11
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