583
FXUS64 KLCH 221739
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1239 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
AVIATION
SCT/BKN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH OVC MVFR CEILINGS AND SHRA EXPECTED AT MOST SITES BY
23/12Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT DECREASES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE
GULF WATERS. LIKE YESTERDAY, ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL INLAND
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS ONLY
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUICK TO REINITIALIZE CONVECTION
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE OBSERVED ON THE KLCH 00Z
SOUNDING WHICH MEASURED A PWAT OF 2.23 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF THE
INVERTED UPPER TROF APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THIS CONVECTION. A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR SCANS WOULD SEEM
TO VALIDATE THIS FORECAST AS ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING
ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING. CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON HEATING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROF WASHES OUT. THIS
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO WANE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE
REINITIALIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LONG AWAITED
COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN REMARKABLY WELL FORECAST BY BOTH SHORT AND
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN ITS UNSEASONABLE NATURE WITH MOST
GUIDANCE TRENDING STRONGER (COOLER) AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. FROPA
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO AN END AS IT DOES SO. IN IT'S WAKE, CAA WILL
USHER IN SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60'S.
MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID
60'S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER 60'S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR. WHILE IT SEEMS LIKE A RELATIVELY MILD DROP, GIVEN THE
RELATIVE UNIFORMITY OF MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,
THE FORECAST LOWS WOULD LIKELY TIE OR PERHAPS EVEN BREAK RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN A PATTERN MORE
REMINISCENT OF MID NOVEMBER THAN MID JULY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FRIDAY
WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ONCE
AGAIN SPREADING A DEEP COLUMN OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND BRINGING OUR BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM SUMMER TO AN END.
THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE RETURN OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JONES
MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. AN UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TURNING
ONSHORE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 84 64 85 / 60 50 10 0
LCH 75 86 69 87 / 50 60 20 0
LFT 74 84 69 86 / 50 70 20 0
BPT 75 86 70 87 / 50 60 20 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...26
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