554
FXUS64 KLCH 222341
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM 7 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 7
PM MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY). IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTLINE. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKNESS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST COASTLINE. NOT ANTICIPATING A
VERY WIDESPREAD COVERING OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE
SHOWERS, BUT AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OR SO COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE START OF POSSIBLE FLOODING RAINFALL
STARTING TOMORROW. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER SHORTWAVE PULSE IS
ANTICIPATED TO NEAR EAST TEXAS BEFORE CROSSING ON SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE, WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AM WITH A LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.
AS OF NOW, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (2 OF 4)
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A VERY WARM AND
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS WAVE.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE REGION INTO
THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE CONTINUED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.
FROM NOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
FROM THE FLOOD WATCH TEXT: A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
LIFT OVER A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE REGION
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RAINFALL WITH THESE
WAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WITH LITTLE STORM
MOTION AND OR BACKBUILDING, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
PRESENT FROM NOW THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, ANTICIPATE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL WIDESPREAD
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 TO 15 INCHES.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE BEYOND MONDAY, IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED.
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS
RAINFALL STACKS UP, SO PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF THIS POSSIBILITY FOR
THOSE TRAVELING OR CELEBRATING THE HOLIDAY IN LOW-LYING AREAS,
OUTDOOR OR EVEN INDOORS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING ARA
AND LFT. AFTER SUNSET THESE STORMS WILL FADE AWAY WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT OVERNIGHT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. CURRENTLY
FORECASTING MVFR IMPACT BUT CONDITIONS MAY NEED TO BE DOWNGRADED
ID FOG IS DENSER THAN EXPECTED.
SATURDAY STARTING AROUND 14Z A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH PREVAILING VCTS OR SHRA AT ALL TERMINALS.
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE
WITH LOW CEILINGS, VISIBILITY AND WITH CHAOTIC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW WAVES AND WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY. WHILE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THERE
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN AND
NEAR TO SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHILE MAJORITY OF THE REGION HAS REMAINED DRY TODAY, THIS WILL NOT
BE THE CASE STARTING TOMORROW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. RAINFALL WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE PASSING OVER THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...14
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