125
FXUS64 KLCH 121121
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
521 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CI CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST 30 HOURS OR SO.
THESE WILL AID A BIT IN KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR
LOWEST POTENTIAL, BUT A LIGHT, SHORT DURATION, FREEZE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. A VERY SIMILAR EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW NORTHERN AREAS POTENTIALLY
SEEING A SHORT DURATION FREEZE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BEFORE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SWEPT ALONG BY A SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING TROF AND COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES HAVING MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20% AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
PROBABILISTIC SURGE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT
EXTREME LOW WATER CONDITIONS DURING THE LOW TIDE PERIOD THURSDAY
WITH WATER LEVELS POTENTIALLY FALLING TO AS LOW AS -3.0 MLLW. SHOULD
THIS VERIFY, UNUSUALLY LARGE SWATHS OF SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKE
BEDS COULD BE UNCOVERED.
WINDS WILL ABATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING
EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY TURNING WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS,
BECOMING CALM WITH SUNSET TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ALL SITES MAINTAINING VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 55 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 57 38 60 47 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 56 36 60 46 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 59 41 62 46 / 0 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...17
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