836
FXUS64 KLCH 151831
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
131 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD POSE A FLOOD
RISK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AFTER A SMALL LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE PICKED BACK UP THIS LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ALONG
WITH A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS THAT HAS ELEVATED OUR PWATS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE AND CLOSER TO APPROACHING OR POSSIBLY EXCEED DAILY
MAXIMUM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DURING THE MIDWEEK, THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BARELY NOTICEABLE
“LULL” IN ACTIVITY IN COMPARISON TO WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY
AND TOMORROW. WHILE IT SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LOWER OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, ALONG WITH THE WEAK LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST. ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE MAY DECREASE,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND THE
AREA WILL STILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AS A RESULT OF WHATEVER
RAINFALL THEY RECEIVE THAT DAY ON TOP OF ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
THERE IS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED
BY NHC. IT IS CURRENTLY OVER NE MX AND COULD REEMERGE OVER THE NW
GULF LATE TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SHORT LIVED TROPICAL
STORM ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS 40 PERCENT, THEN
50 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES FROM THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM.
----------------------------------------------------------------
WWA IN EFFECT/POSSIBLE & WPC ERO:
THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. WHILE THIS IS SET TO BE IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THIS COULD LIKELY BE EXTENDED DEPENDING UPON THE RAINFALL THAT WE
RECEIVE AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND THIS
MAY DRIVE TIDES AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE, AND IN ADDITION
TO THAT, POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
AT THE MOMENT, WE DO NOT HAVE HAZARDS FOR THE MARINE ZONES,
HOWEVER VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (AT A MINIMUM) OR EVEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR.
WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE (LEVEL
3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
HIGH (LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE RESUMED AFTER A SHORT MID MORNING LULL.
THANKS TO THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY, CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE ON AND
OFF THROUGH AND BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. EXPECT NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS A RESULT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ALONG THE TX COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. SCA (AT A MINIMUM) OR EVEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED PAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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