596
FXUS64 KLCH 031128
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DAYTIME HEATING AND
SEABREEZE-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BE MINDFUL OF THE DAILY
STORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY
IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TO SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS TONIGHT, PROVIDING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
ALOFT, RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION,
WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, BENEATH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10. OTHERWISE, QUIET
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
TODAY AND TOMORROW, UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND
BROADEN OUT OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY, RESULTING IN MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER WE
SAW YESTERDAY (THURS). A QUIET AND WARM START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AS LACK
OF ANY REAL STEERING MECHANISM WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO BE VERY SLOW
MOVING. STILL, MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DIE OFF
AS WE APPROACH SUNSET EACH EVENING, JUST IN TIME FOR THE MANY
PLANNED FIREWORKS SHOWS AND 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES PLANNED ACROSS
THE REGION. THOSE OF US WHO WILL BE OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS OF POP UP THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS VERY WARM
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS AGAIN WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FURTHER
ALLOWING A GENERAL WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THEREFORE
AN UPTICK IN POPS IS NOTED EACH AFTERNOON SUN-TUES. STILL, THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MEANING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY DECREASE WITH
SUNSET. BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON SUN THROUGH TUES. BY MID-
WEEK, RIDGING START TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN, TAMPERING
RAIN CHANCES DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY PROB30S
FOR TSRA AND KLCH, KLFT AND KARA THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MOISTENING AIRMASS
AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUN-TUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAIN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY A SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...27
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