167
FXUS64 KLCH 250017
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
717 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OUTLINED BY THE SPC
ALONG / NORTH OF HWY 190 TO TOLEDO BEND. A MARGINAL RISK COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE COAST
- TONIGHT'S SETUP IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE
(WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL) STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE
FAVORS THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST,
HOWEVER, A LOW END THREAT REMAINS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S NORTH OF
I-10.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE DECOUPLING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS WILL CREATE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
AND DESCEND SE TOWARD THE LA/MS COAST. CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL CLUSTER
TOGETHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE ALONG /EAST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST.
LOCALLY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HEREAFTER, A
SECONDARY WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL INITIATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NOLA. THIS SECONDARY NOCTURNAL ROUND IS WHAT IS DRIVING THE
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVER WEATHER.
AS MY COLLEAGUE LAST NIGHT POINTED ON THEIR AFD, THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN CAN HAVE A CHALLENGE IN DETERMINING THE SPATIAL EXTENT TO
WHICH THESE STORMS CAN TAP INTO. AS IT STANDS NOW, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA LIKELY
RANGING 1300-1700 J/KGK MLCAPE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP.
STRONG MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM WITH LOW LCL
UNDER 300M ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER... HOWEVER,
THIS DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER LET ALONE MAINTENANCE OF STORM
EVOLUTION WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON MOISTENING OF A CAPPING
INVERSION- WHICH MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HOLDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL OF
THE OUTFLOW OF A DEVELOPING MSC RUNNING TOO FAR AHEAD OF ITS
CONVECTION IS ALSO A VERY REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. THUS, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO STRESS THE THE CURRENT MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISKS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THAT COVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE VERY CONDITIONAL
UPON THE AGGRAVATING FACTORS(DECENT CAPE, LAPSE RATES, COLD POOL
FORCING) REMAINING IN BALANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE CAN
EXPECT THE SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM
TO WEAKEN AND DIMINISH TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH ALONG
THE I-49 CORRIDOR. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS SETX AND PORTIONS OF
SWLA THROUGH DAWN. NOT EXPECTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE DENSE,
HOWEVER.
THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING, POST SUNRISE, IS EXPECTED TO
TREND MAINLY DRY, BUT ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS WE STILL REMAIN UNDER A
VERY HUMID GULF AIRMASS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
BE SLOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF MCS LIKE
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIMILAR NORTH
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ORIENTATION, LARGELY MISSING THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. AGAIN WITH OTHER
THUNDERSTORM INGREDIENTS PRESENT, THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND SUBJECT TO SOME SPATIAL VARIATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY TO THE MID OR UPPER 80S
DESPITE PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AM. AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL DECREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE WARM,
HUMID SOUTHERLY FETCH HOLDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER WITH INTERIOR
LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING TOWARD THE LOW 90S. ISOLATED STORM
CHANCES FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WAFFLE IN AND OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
STORMS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
COMPLEXES ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME STAMP.
EVEN STILL, STORMS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHEAST LA AND CENTRAL
MS AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COMING HOURS.
BASED ON THE 00Z RAOB COMING IN NOW, THERE IS A ROBUST CAP IN
PLACE JUST OFF THE SURFACE. ABOVE THE SFC THOUGH THERE IS PLENTY
OF ENERGY AND A COOL AIRMASS WHICH COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT STORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL (SOME LARGE AND SOME SMALLER) AND
GUSTY WINDS AS FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CLUSTER AS AEX.
MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL STAY EAST OF THE CENLA TERMINAL, THOUGH.
AND WITH SUNDOWN, THE INTENSITY OF THESE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
BE DIMINISHING.
ANOTHER CLUSTER NOW GOING ON IN SOUTHEAST OK IS SET TO SLIDE DOWN
INTO THE REGION AND COULD IMPACT A CORRIDOR FROM AEX TO LOWER
ACADIANA. BEST TIMING HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN AREA TAFS. THIS IS A
VERY CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
STORMS TO BE STRONG WHEN MOVING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AFTER DAYLIGHT ON SATURDAY, THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY
WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND LIGHT BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA MOVE INTO NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE THESE CELLS MOVE, ANTICIPATE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS AND QUICK DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS POSSIBLY CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, SLACK RIDGING DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTLINE WILL BRING
MOST RAIN CHANCES FOR COASTAL WATERS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH OF THE
REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INLAND AND DAILY RH
MINIMUMS IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
ONCE THIS AFTERNOON'S ROUND OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY CALMS, A SECONDARY
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS, CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE COULD ALSO HAVE STRONG WINDS AND QUICK HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS UNLIKELY WITH EITHER SYSTEM PASSAGE
TRENDING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY FROM THE
STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...11
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