445
FXUS64 KLCH 040520
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE ALONG ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AREAWIDE.
- RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING MOISTURE
RETURN AND RAIN CHANCES TO LEVEL OFF, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHILE EDOUARD HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED TONIGHT, A MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING
IN MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE
DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADING INTO THE
REGION BY MIDDAY TODAY AS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TAP INTO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVERHEAD. WITH PWATS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE TODAY, MANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER ALREADY RAIN
SODDEN GROUND POST-EDOUARD. AS A RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE AREAWIDE TODAY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY WITH PWATS REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR A BIT
LONGER. THIS AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE
OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ONCE AGAIN, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK. BY
SUNDAY, THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE DISSIPATED, LEAVING BEHIND A
MORE TYPICAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS RETURNING TO THE
50-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE. STILL, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO AT LEAST GET SOME RUN OF THE MILL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
FIRING OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN FRI AND SAT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DISTURBANCE'S SUPPORT, AND
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DECREASE AS WELL.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE PLAINS, GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MID TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE TYPICAL DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPERING DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK AND RIDGING STARTS
TO REALLY TAKE HOLD. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM HYDRO
TO HEAT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, WITH THE NEED WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BECOMING A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE, WHILE CEILINGS REMAIN VFR. ONCE AGAIN, ONLY
DEVIATION WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR AEX WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRIEFLY LOWER VIS TO MVFR NEAR SUNRISE. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED,
ANY STORMS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINALS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING
SOME DISRUPTIONS. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LIGHT MAINLY SE TO S WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WELL, AS A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SOME HEAVY AT TIMES, AS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO POOL OVERHEAD. MINRH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE 50 TO 70% RANGE EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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