968
FXUS64 KLCH 180948
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2021
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER
THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, WINDS WILL SWING
BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE, WITH UPPER 70S TO 80S BY TOMORROW THEN MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH GULF MOISTURE STARTING TO SEEP INTO THE REGION, POPS WILL
CLIMB. A FEW MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
AND MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL AID IN SHOWER /
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW, THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR
BY TOMORROW NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR LA PARISHES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR OUR
TX COUNTIES.
STIGGER
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
ON THURSDAY... LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM A MORNING LOW IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE FOLKS. A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO MAKE IT'S THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA BEFORE
STALLING DOWN ALONG THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ATTM GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PUSH AS
ZONE FLOW WILL CONT ALOFT. THIS WILL MEAN THE COLDER AIR REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND WHAT WE WILL END UP WITH JUST ENOUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BOUNCE AROUND THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. IN
ADDITION... WHAT RAINFALL THAT DOES DEVELOP AND FALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED AND RANGE FROM 1/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS.
LOOKING TO SEE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO. ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY... AN UPPER LVL TROF PUSHING OFF THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAIN STATES. AS THIS HAPPENS
LOOK FOR A UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SO WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN A TYPICAL QUIET INDIAN SUMNER PATTERN FOR
THE REGION. WHAT WILL REMAIN IS A WEAK BOUNDARY FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DOWN ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
K. KUYPER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED PAST THE END OF THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS TO CLEAR UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE DAY, WITH ONLY
LIGHT UPPER DECKS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
SITES. SOME LIGHT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SITES
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.
STIGGER
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THIS EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO END THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 50 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 77 56 81 67 / 0 0 10 20
LFT 77 56 82 68 / 0 0 10 20
BPT 77 55 81 66 / 0 0 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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