205
FXUS64 KLCH 032029
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND TROPICAL WAVE ALL MERGE INTO
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.
- TRENDS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A "WETTING" RAIN DURING THE
WEEKEND THAT WOULD HELP WITH FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONCERNS.
- THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.
- A SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CLIMO
NORM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THANKS TO A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS FUELED BY THE REMNANTS OF AN
EPAC STORM AND GULF MOISTURE, PWATS ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND RIGHT AROUND THE DAILY MAXIMUM FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THE LATEST 18Z SOUNDING MEASURED A NEAR RECORD PWAT OF 2.54
INCHES, AND FORECAST PWATS FOR TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE A TOUCH
HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF/ATLANTIC
COASTLINE, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BOC, A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA, AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF. WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY,
WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN PARISHES. WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
MAINLY OFFSHORE, HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS MOST
LAND AREAS, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN HAVE SEEN SOME
LIGHTER TRAINING SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
MAINLY STRATIFORM SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TOMORROW.
THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP GRADUALLY REDUCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE GULF WHERE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, EVEN
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR AVERAGE THANKS TO RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER, THEN ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE
CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF WATERS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENLA. MORE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
ESPECIALLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS WILL DANCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST AREAS THANKS TO THE MOISTENING UP LAYERS,
WHILE VIS WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON PASSING SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE AREA. WINDS OF
10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-5 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME AND WILL
CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 65 TO 75 PERCENT RANGE. ALL
AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE A WETTING RAIN OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES,
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE FIRE DANGER AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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