244
FXUS64 KLCH 151112
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE WHILE LIFTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 102-109.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER KEPT AFTERNOON
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE LAKE
CHARLES AIRPORT SET A DAILY RAINFALL RECORD WITH 2.34 INCHES
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 2.25 SET ALL THE WAY BACK IN 1899.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR BOTH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO INITIALIZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAKNESS ALOFT
WHILE POPS ARE CLOSER TO 20% FURTHER EAST ACROSS ACADIANA.
REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION, THE RETREATING TROUGH AND HIGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL KEEP SKIES BROKEN TO OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WHICH WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL (UPPER 80S TO 90). THESE SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS AND
THE EARLY INITIALIZATION OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPELL AN EARLY
END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR OFF THE SURFACE BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO THE WET PATTERN THE REGION HAS BEEN SOAKING IN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT NEARLY
ALL PRECIPITATION AND LIMIT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CORRESPONDING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 102-109 RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF
WORKING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AT KBPT TODAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOWER
VIS AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST,
BUT COULD BE GUSTY IN OR NEAR STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...05
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