787
FXUS64 KLCH 211119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD.
- A WEAK "FRONTAL" BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO SITUATED OVER
THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TO THE AREA,
DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, NOT JUST ALONG THE COAST, BUT
FURTHER INLAND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND SOME LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS,
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE, POPS HAVE ALSO INCREASED, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENLA WHERE 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STILL LIMIT COVERAGE OVERALL,
BUT IT WILL NOT COMPLETELY SHUT OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE OR ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWING, THEN
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
A BIT DRIER, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, THOUGH
POPS AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S AT THE END OF THE WEEK, AND DESPITE A SLIGHT
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A
FEW DEGREES FROM THERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THROUGH SUNRISE AFTER WHICH ALL FOG WILL DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY, MOST
LIKELY FOR LFT/ARA, THOUGH WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHOWER/STORM NEAR OTHER TERMINALS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST MAY DEVELOP AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (AFTER 22/08Z), THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION THIS THREAT IN TAFS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MID TO LATE WORK WEEK, WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
INCREASING INTO SCEC CRITERIA AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY, HOWEVER A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS BY THURSDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...64
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