675
FXUS64 KLCH 221117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
UNDERLYING DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE THE FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARISHES OF
LOUISIANA.
- A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK INTO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, RESULTING
IN COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS BOTH INLAND AND MARINE
AREAS. INLAND, VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL DRIVE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHARPLY LOWER, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM AVOYELLES PARISH SOUTH AND WEST TO THE COAST IN LOUISIANA, WITH
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S, BUT POST
FRONTAL HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 40S DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WHEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
TOWARD MS, LIMITING WIND CHILL CONCERNS AND ALLOWING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO ACTUAL VALUES. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 20 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA,
WITH LOWER BUT STILL NOTABLE PROBABILITIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
A RAPID WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MIDWEEK,
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE INTO THE 60S BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME
TO DECREASE THE INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 70S, THOUGH THIS COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 33 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 60 37 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 58 35 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 39 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ029-031>033-044-045-055-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ515-516-615-
616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...11
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