286
FXUS64 KLCH 151724
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE WHILE
LIFTING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102-110.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WHILE A
STATIONARY FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX. ALOFT, AN
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER TEXAS, WITH THE FORECAST
AREA ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. AREA RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION
OFFSHORE/NEAR THE COAST, WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
WEST NEAR HOUSTON, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
CONVECTION NEAR HOUSTON WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR SE TX COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER
BEYOND THE TX BORDER HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE WEST ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD IN ITS WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EFFECTIVELY BRING AN END
TO THE WET PATTERN AND SHIFTING US TOWARDS A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY AND BEYOND, TEMPS
CLIMB FURTHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 100 ACROSS CENLA BY MON/TUES) AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN
THE 101-112 RANGE. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION EAST OF HOUSTON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY AFFECTING BPT AND LCH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, NO CONCERNS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DRY CONDITIONS BEGIN TO PREVAIL TOMORROW
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 60
TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
NEAR ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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