435
FXUS64 KLCH 020512
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1212 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BE MINDFUL OF THE DAILY
STORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY
IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TONIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE. 00Z LCH SOUNDING DEPICTS A RAPIDLY MOISTENING
ATMOSPHERE WHEN COMPARED TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO WEAKENING
RIDGING ALOFT, WITH A PWAT OF 2.14" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOESN'T LOOK
TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE COMING DAYS, KEEPING AN INFLUX OF WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE PROXIMITY OF RIDGING WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN CHECK TO AN EXTENT, BUT WON'T KEEP UP FULLY DRY,
WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WILL BE JUST TYPICAL
RUN OF THE MILL DIURNAL CONVECTION, WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY AND DYING OFF NEAR SUNSET EACH EVENING JUST IN
TIME FOR FIREWORKS. OTHERWISE, WARM WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN FURTHER
ALLOWING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
BRING AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SUN-TUES TIME FRAME.
WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL STILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN NATURE,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS,
WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION LIKELY SEEING A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK TO A SMALL DEGREE, BUT STILL HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. ONCE DEVIATION MAY BE A BIT OF PATCHY FOG AT AEX
AS WE NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE I-10 TERMINALS,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
SEAS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MOISTENING AIRMASS
AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUN-TUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAIN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SAT, FOLLOWED BY A SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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