215
FXUS64 KLCH 111117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL HELP TO
INCREASE CONVECTION SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES TICK UP FURTHER BY MONDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE AREA-WIDE
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD, WHILE A STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COASTS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS IS ALLOWING RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO OUR AREA, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
WIDESPREAD PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0-2.2 INCHES (AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR MID-JULY).
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERN US RIDGE BEFORE STALLING OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA. AS SUCH, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE (SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG), SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY, AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET A
BIT OF AN EARLIER START THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS STORM INITIATION ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN EXPANDING INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH OUTFLOW AND
OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, STORMS WILL BE OF THE POP-UP VARIETY, BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES,
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS EXCEEDING 12,000 FEET, WHICH IS
SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL DETACH INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY
AND GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD TO START THE WEEK. THIS ADDITIONAL MID-
LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY, THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL INCREASE AS WELL DURING THIS TIME FRAME,
PARTICULARLY AS SOILS BECOME MORE SATURATED FROM ANY RAIN FROM
PRECEDING DAYS. AT THIS TIME, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST ON MONDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WPC HAS OUR
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
MONDAY, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT DURING THE DAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST STARTING WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND AS
WELL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S, HEAT INDICES
WELL IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES WILL BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
SILAS/64
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS AT ANY TERMINAL.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, HOWEVER NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY MOST
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP RICH GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON
RH MINIMA IN THE 55-70 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...05
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