030
FXUS64 KLCH 161059
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
559 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY ONWARD WHILE
LIFTING AFTERNOON HIGHS TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102-110.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
WX MAP PAINTS A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST IN TERMS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL GENERATE WARMING IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE CAPPING GROWTH OF MOST CUMULUS BEFORE THEY CAN DEVELOP
INTO LARGER STORM CLUSTERS. THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
SHIFTS AWAY FROM EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION CONCERNS TO SUMMER TIME
HEAT IMPACTS. THAT SAID, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE CONVECTION
OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY OFFER A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AND FRIDAY.
OUR NORTHERN JET IS CURRENTLY STRIATED OVER THE UPPER 48, HOLDING
ORGANIZED WEATHER FEATURES WELL AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHWEST. LOUISIANA. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE AREA IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
DRY, HOWEVER. HIGHS WILL BUILD TO THE LOW 90S. ONCE FACTORING THE
DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100F. THUS, THOSE WORKING LONG
PERIODS OF OUTDOORS OR FACILITATING ACTIVITIES ARE ENCOURAGE TO
ALLOW FOR FREQUENT BREAKS, SHADE, AND HYDRATION.
WHILE AFTERNOON RH WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
GULF WATERS. THERE IS A SLOW RISING TREND OF DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. THEREFORE, BASIS LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE POSTED TOWARD THIS PERIOD WHERE CRITERIA IS MET.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO REMAIN NULL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHOW
SIGNS OF BROADENING AND BREAKING DOWN.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWER
VIS AND CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
LIGHT SOUTH / SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE 55 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DROPPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. WHILE THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER AFTERNOON
RH TOWARD 40-50% EARLY NEXT WEEK, NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page