968  
FXUS64 KLCH 180948  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
448 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
 
 
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER  
THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO  
MID 50S. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, WINDS WILL SWING  
BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE  
RISE, WITH UPPER 70S TO 80S BY TOMORROW THEN MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.  
WITH GULF MOISTURE STARTING TO SEEP INTO THE REGION, POPS WILL  
CLIMB. A FEW MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF  
AND MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL AID IN SHOWER /  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. ANY  
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND COASTAL  
WATERS TOMORROW, THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR  
BY TOMORROW NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED FOR OUR LA PARISHES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR OUR  
TX COUNTIES.  
 
STIGGER  
   
LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]
 
 
ON THURSDAY... LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A  
THUNDERSTORM AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM A MORNING LOW IN THE  
MID 60S TO AROUND THE MID 80S FOR MOST OF THE FOLKS. A CANADIAN COLD  
FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO MAKE IT'S THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA BEFORE  
STALLING DOWN ALONG THE COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ATTM GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PUSH AS  
ZONE FLOW WILL CONT ALOFT. THIS WILL MEAN THE COLDER AIR REMAINS TO  
THE NORTH AND WHAT WE WILL END UP WITH JUST ENOUGH FROM THIS SYSTEM  
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 60S FRIDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BOUNCE AROUND THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. IN  
ADDITION... WHAT RAINFALL THAT DOES DEVELOP AND FALL WITH THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED AND RANGE FROM 1/4 OF AN INCH OR LESS.  
 
LOOKING TO SEE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND A FEW  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO. ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY  
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 70S DURING  
THE EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY... AN UPPER LVL TROF PUSHING OFF THE  
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAIN STATES. AS THIS HAPPENS  
LOOK FOR A UPTICK IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
SO WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN A TYPICAL QUIET INDIAN SUMNER PATTERN FOR  
THE REGION. WHAT WILL REMAIN IS A WEAK BOUNDARY FOR THE START OF THE  
NEXT WEEK WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DOWN ALONG THE COAST  
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
K. KUYPER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED PAST THE END OF THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUD DECKS TO CLEAR UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE DAY, WITH ONLY  
LIGHT UPPER DECKS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE  
SITES. SOME LIGHT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SITES  
AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS  
WILL BECOME EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.  
STIGGER  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SHIFTS FROM TEXAS TO TENNESSEE. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL BRIEFLY ENHANCE  
THIS EASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHEAST  
WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE FOR WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
RETURN TO END THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE  
COASTAL WATERS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 76 50 81 62 / 0 0 0 0  
LCH 77 56 81 67 / 0 0 10 20  
LFT 77 56 82 68 / 0 0 10 20  
BPT 77 55 81 66 / 0 0 10 20  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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