682
FXUS64 KLCH 231137
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL 7 PM
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY). IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE US AS A SERIES OF
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THESE FEATURES
WILL PROVIDE BROAD DYNAMIC LIFTING. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO OUR EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH, LEADING TO ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
LED TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE SURFACE, WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM, MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S. THE WORST PART WILL BE DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S LEADING TO
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID-90S.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE WPC IS PLACING THE REGION UNDER EITHER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
4) OR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4). SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
THE MOST CONCERNING WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND WILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THE DOWNSHEAR CORFIDI VECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK FOR SLOW-
MOVING OR BACK-BUILDING STORMS OVER A PARTICULAR AREA. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYER, AROUND 13 KFT,
WITH EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES SETTING UP A SITUATION WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES BEING LIKELY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TALL
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION, BUT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS, THE MAIN STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE
MULTICELL STORMS.
WITH EACH ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN, THE GROUND WILL BE LESS CAPABLE OF
ABSORBING THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, LEADING TO AN INCREASING FLASH
FLOOD THREAT EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, RIVERS WILL START TO RESPOND
TO THE EXTRA RAIN AND ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER THE COMING WEEK.
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT RAIN EACH DAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAIN RATES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED GOING INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND OUR EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING, THEN ANOTHER WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE WIND-DRIVEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER,
MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ONSHORE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 70% FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...07
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