337
FXUS64 KLCH 050528
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY.
- RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING MOISTURE
RETURN AND RAIN CHANCES TO LEVEL OFF, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A QUIET AND WARM START TO THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ONGOING TONIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.13" WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN
RIGHT AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TODAY'S DATE, WHILE MID/LOWRH ARE
IN THE 70% RANGE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DEPICTING PWATS
SURGING EVEN HIGHER TODAY AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/EASTERLY WAVE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
AS THIS DISTURBANCES MOVES OVERHEAD, IT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY FROM MID/LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT, A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE TODAY. TOMORROW,
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LEAVING BEHIND A PLUM
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY
HOWEVER, THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FOR PART OF COASTAL SE
TX AS WELL AS MOST OF OUR LA PARISHES SOUTH OF FT POLK/AEX.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SERN
US THROUGH THE WEEK, WHILE A STUBBORN WEAKNESS HANGS AROUND THE NWRN
GULF BENEATH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER
NORTH. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX/CENLA, WHILE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FURTHER SOUTH THANKS TO BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INITIALIZE OVER THE REGION, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINALS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING BRIEF DISRUPTIONS AS THEY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AWAY FROM CONVECTION, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
HIS WEEKEND, AREAWIDE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE SE TO S BY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WELL, AS A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SOME HEAVY AT TIMES, AS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO POOL OVERHEAD. MINRH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE 50 TO 70% RANGE EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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