183
FXUS64 KLCH 290524
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1224 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4. MAX AFTERNOON
APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
107 DEGREES DAILY.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR HAZY SKIES WITH VIVID SUNRISES AND SUNSETS.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK ALLOWING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP THAT WILL BRING BACK A DAILY CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH REGIONAL UPPER AIR ANALYSIS,
SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER.
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST MOVING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY. THE DRY AND SINKING AIR, ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT FROM
THE DUST PLUME AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WILL SUPPRESS ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND THE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM 100 TO
107 DEGREES. THIS IS BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH A
MODERATE HEAT RISK OUTLINED FROM WPC, WHICH IS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4, AND
MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION.
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST PLUME WILL MAKE FOR HAZY
DAYTIME SKIES, WITH THE PARTICLES HELPING AIR QUALITY REACH MODERATE
LEVELS WHICH MEANS IT MAY HAVE AFFECTS TO THOSE WHO ARE UNUSUALLY
SENSITIVE TO AIR POLLUTION. ON A BRIGHTER NOTE, SUNRISES AND SUNSETS
SHOULD BE COLORFUL AND MORE VIVID THEN USUAL.
DURING TUESDAY, THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND
DISPERSE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP ALOFT
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN. THIS
WILL ALLOW MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING MAX HEATING ALONG WITH ANY SEA BREEZE AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OR HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY FOR THE TERMINALS. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE KAEX TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY
29/11-14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINING TERMINALS.
A REPEAT ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY AT VFR
LEVELS. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE, ALONG WITH A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER, NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, ALONG WITH LOW SEAS THIS WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN
50 AND 60 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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