861
FXUS64 KLCH 111923
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
223 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STREAKS OF CU FIELDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER, RADAR REMAINS QUIET AS WATER VAPOR STILL SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY SUBSIDENT AIR OVERHEAD. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS BRINGING
IN THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S
PRODUCING APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN US INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
THEREFORE, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE. ACTIVITY
THAT DOES FORM WILL DECREASE AT SUNSET.
WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE, IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE
SUMMER AS THE HEAT AND MUGGINESS WILL BE INCREASING. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH THE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES. AT NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 90%, SO DEFINITELY "STICKY."
ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW LESS
INHIBITION AND A BETTER CHANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS WET WITH A HEAVY RAIN
SIGNATURE INDICATED ON THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL DIG DOWN TO THE SOUTH BRINGING A
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND PUSH A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS WITH
TRAJECTORIES BRINGING IN RICH MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF, ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONNECTING
WITH EAST PAC DEEP MOISTURE, WILL BRING ABOUT A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND
TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSISTENCY SHOWS PWAT
BY LATE SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY BETWEEN 2.25 AND 2.5 INCHES
WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND BOTH AVERAGE MAX
MOVING AND DAILY MAX VALUES. GOOD PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS NOTED
WITH 100H-50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 90 PERCENT. ALSO
LARGE WARM CLOUD LAYERS UP TO 15K FEET WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT WARM
PRECIP PROCESSES. THIS ALL LEADS TO A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS THAT
WILL BRING CONVECTION WITH HIGH RAIN RATES.
MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME PARALLEL TO THE 85H-70H THETA-E
RIDGE TO GO ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS PROJECTED AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THEREFORE, POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY BRING
ABOUT HIGH RAIN RATES OVER LOCATIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME. WPC AND FORECASTED RAINFALL 3 DAY TOTALS FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES, WHILE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM OR THE REASONABLY HIGHEST AMOUNTS PAINT
THE FORECAST WITH BETWEEN 6 TO 10 INCH 3 DAY RAIN TOTALS.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD RISK POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE INCREASING
BEGINNING WITH A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 3) RISK OR BETWEEN 5 AND 14
PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING FOR
SUNDAY, WITH A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 4) RISK OR BETWEEN A 15 AND 39
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL PROBABLY LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.
THERE ARE SOME INCONSISTENCY WHEN IT COMES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME GUIDANCE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE
AWAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE
AREA. FOR NOW NBM/WPC POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING,
CAUSING CIGS TO WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT, ALLOWING FOG TO
AGAIN FORM AT AEX. NOT EXPECTING FOG ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME, WITH
OTHERWISE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL BE GENERALLY RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW
TO MODEST SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED AT BEST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL ON THE MUGGY
SIDE WITH READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA MEETING UP WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...17
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