107
FXUS64 KLCH 291821
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
121 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4. MAX AFTERNOON
APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
107 DEGREES DAILY.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR HAZY SKIES WITH VIVID SUNRISES AND SUNSETS.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK ALLOWING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP THAT WILL BRING BACK A DAILY CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) AND ASSOCIATED DUST PLUME IS EVIDENT ROTATING AROUND THIS
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARM MID-LEVELS (700 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE) THAT WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES OVER THE
AREA, KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S FURTHER INLAND. MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, RESULTING
IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 105 FOR MOST AREAS.
WHILE THIS REMAINS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL URGED.
THE SAL OVERHEAD WILL ALSO RESULT IN HAZY SKIES OVER OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON AIR QUALITY. DUST MIXING TO
THE SURFACE HAS RAISED PM2.5 LEVELS INTO THE MODERATE RANGE,
MEANING PERSONS UNUSUALLY SENSITIVE TO AIR POLLUTION SHOULD
CONSIDER LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS. ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE, WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME VIVID SUNSETS AND SUNRISES ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE DUST SCATTERS THE LONGER WAVELENGTHS OF SOLAR RADIATION.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SAL TO DISPERSE, AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. GUIDANCE IS THEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW AN UNUSUAL EAST-TO-WEST
TRACK OWING TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF OUR
CWA, AND WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, PUSHING PWATS UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES (75TH-90TH PERCENTILE). THIS SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. THE INCREASED CONVECTION MAY BRING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, KEEPING MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-100S
RANGE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST, GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN AS IT DOES SO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH RESULTING HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 103 TO 107
RANGE. WITH THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE DISPLACED FROM THE REGION AND
PWAT GENERALLY IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE, EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, INITIALLY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND THEN PROPAGATING INLAND ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING HOURS.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY AT LFT/ARA. OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG MAY BRING VISIBILITY
DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT AEX, MOST LIKELY IN THE 10-13Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 5-10 KT TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
TO MAINLY THE LAKES, BAYS, AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM OF
GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON RH MINIMUM VALUES
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT EACH DAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION,
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION THEN POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR MINIMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
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