981
FXUS64 KLCH 241153
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR INLAND.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SOME SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
WITH SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THESE HIGH CLOUDS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5
DEGREES WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING (ALTHOUGH SOME
INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY REDUCING SMOKE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IVO THE
BEAUMONT AIRPORT).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY LIFTING A
WARM FRONT OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE MORNING. A TROPICAL AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIFT DEWPOINTS QUICKLY FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ENSEMBLES
ARE DEPICTING A DECENT SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT SETTING UP MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH FORECAST CAPE BETWEEN 1400-1600 J/KG
AND 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. DISCREET SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THESE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAA DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING DROPPING
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID 50S.
JONES
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A SECOND, DRY BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE
ADVECTING EVEN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING WITH WAKE UP TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY TURNING WINDS BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THE AIR MASS WITH
LOWS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
AREA OF LOW SCT TO BKN CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS, LIFTING TOWARD VFR CEILINGS THROUGH REMAINING MORNING
HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SE - S BY LOCAL NOON. EARLY
AFTERNOON VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO TEMPO. EVENING HOURS AFTER 8PM LT WILL
HAVE LINE OF SEGMENTED TSRA TO MOVE EAST PASSING LFT / ARA AROUND
7AM TUESDAY.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 64 78 51 / 50 70 50 10
LCH 81 67 80 55 / 50 60 50 10
LFT 81 67 81 56 / 30 50 70 20
BPT 82 67 81 55 / 40 50 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...30
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