208
FXUS64 KLCH 210608
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESSY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT A WSW FLOW IS OVERHEAD BETWEEN FLAT RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SAT, EVENTUALLY GETTING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INLAND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN MORE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH HIGHS THE LOW/MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVERHEAD AND
THE FRONT DRAGS ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX PROVIDING SOME WEAK SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION.
EVENTUALLY THE "COOL" FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SAT
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND ADVECT A VERY
SMALL AND BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AND WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY, WHICH WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL IS A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE TEMPS WE'VE BEEN SEEING. UNFORTUNATELY,
JUST AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED IT WILL DISAPPEAR, WITH A RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
MOVING INTO THANKSGIVING WEEK, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD
FRONT WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS WHILE OVERHEAD MOISTURE
ADVECTION RAMPS UP THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRING MORE ABNORMALLY WARM
AND HUMID WEATHER WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. RAIN
CHANCES THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, WPC AS OUTLINED PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN A DAY 5 MRGL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE THIS WILL
LIKELY BE MODIFIED OVER THE COMING DAYS THERE IS GOOD INDICATION
THAT THIS FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD WETTING RAIN LATE MON THROUGH
EARLY TUES.
ON THE HEALS OF TUESDAY'S FRONT LOOKS TO COME ANOTHER MORE POWERFUL
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THIS SECOND FRONT, BUT WHAT DOES SEEM
TO BE AGREED UP IS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE THE ONE TO FINALLY BRING
US SOME DRY SEASONAL WEATHER. NBM KEEPS SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS, AS MOISTURE LINGERS BETWEEN THEM, WITH DRY
WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVING BY THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND. IN ADDITION, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 60S BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
BROKEN CEILINGS WILL WAFFLE GRADUALLY FALL FROM VFR/MVFR TO
MVFR/IFR AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLE ON FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER WHICH AS FILLED IN
QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. WHILE WE STILL COULD SEE SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY MVFR VIS ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE, FOG IS FOR THE
MOST PART NEXT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE. AFTER SUNRISE, CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY MID MORNING, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE LOW LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUN THANKS TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN BACK
E SUN AFTERNOON AND SE TO S BY MON. WINDS BECOME BREEZY WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF MORE POTENT FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AREAS OF LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MON
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH VERY ISOLATED RAINFALL, IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
"COOL FRONT" ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN HOWEVER, IT WILL OTHERWISE BE
FAIRLY UNNOTICEABLE. SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COUPLE MORE
FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING. THESE FRONTS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE WETTING RAIN, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 64 83 62 / 0 50 50 20
LCH 80 67 82 67 / 10 30 30 20
LFT 81 68 83 66 / 0 30 40 10
BPT 82 67 83 66 / 10 20 30 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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