703
FXUS64 KLCH 250527
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS,
LOWER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS BRINGING IN DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS WITH DRIER AIR ALSO NOTED IN MID LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR PWAT VALUES TO
LOWER TO AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO NORM AND NEAR 1 INCH
WITH LAYER MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE FOR FALL AND ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, HOWEVER IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID AND NIGHT TIME
LOWS WILL BE LOWER.
BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RESUME IN THE LOW LEVELS TO INCREASE
HUMIDITY KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE FOR FALL.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WILL KEEP THE MID LEVEL DRY AND
LIKELY TO HELP PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES AND SOME COOLER WEATHER MAY BE IN
PLAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MERGE WITH A REMNANT PACIFIC TROPICAL
LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL GET CUT OFF AND SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE REGION.
THEREFORE, DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOTED BY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE NBM SHOWING A WIDE RANGE BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 25TH
PERCENTILE WHISKER PLOTS FOR TEMPERATURES AND POPS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SHOULD PROHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THE RESULT. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR LESS HUMID DAYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS. THE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OR FOG, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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