850
FXUS64 KLCH 220506
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AFTERNOON TODAY WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE HWY90
CORRIDOR, SOUTH.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
STORMS FINALLY ABATED AROUND 9 PM TONIGHT. THEY REMAIN THE GIFT
THAT KEEPS GIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MEANDERING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE GROUND MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG
NOR DENSE FOG, BUT PATCHES OF LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST TO CALCASIEU PARISH THROUGH SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO MOVE BACK OVERHEAD BEGINNING TONIGHT,
BUT MORESO ON TUESDAY, STAUNCHING MOST RAIN CHANCES COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE CAMS SUITE IS LEANING INTO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THE CHANCES OF THIS ARE
LOW, CONSIDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE. MORE LIKELY,
RAIN CHANCES BEING CONTAINED TO THE COASTLINE. THIS OUTCOME MAY
SET OFF AN OUTFLOW- RIDDEN TRAIN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FAR
NORTH AS I-10. EITHER POSSIBLE OUTCOME HAS A LOW CHANCE.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN SET FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
MORE CENTERED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CHANGE ON THE
HORIZON!
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CANADA LATE
WEDNESDAY, SENDING A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE SHORTWAVE ACTS TO
RETROGRADE HIGH PRESSURE WITH IT'S NORTHERLY FETCH SETTING UP OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF STATES. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY FETCHES
WILL SEND THIS BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE NORTH GULF OF AMERICA. ITS
PASSAGE WILL BE A DRY ONE, SO NO STORMS ANTICIPATED, AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO ACCOMPANY IT.
HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, BUT WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS, THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE
THURSDAY THROUGH PERHAPS SATURDAY.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER ACADIANA TO LAKE CHARLES CORRIDOR TODAY
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG WITH VIS TO 3 TO 5 SM WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT DENSE FOG/SOCKED IN VIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SUNRISE AS NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
AND MIX OUT ANY REMAINING VIS ISSUES. CLOUDS IN THE LOWER VFR
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST SURFACE LAYER, AND AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLACEMENT AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT ALL
TERMINALS. PERHAPS BETTER GUIDANCE WILL COME AND PREVAILING
PERIODS OF TSRA CAN BE NAILED DOWN IN FOLLOWING ISSUANCES.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNDOWN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MORE FERVENTLY LATE TUESDAY.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LOW WINDS AND SEAS AND SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THURSDAY, A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AND
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, FURTHER REINFORCING NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE
WINDS AS WELL AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO MIGRATE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK,
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS PER THE DAILY
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 40 TO 50 PERCENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS WELL.
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
PASS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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