564
FXUS64 KLCH 242324
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 108F. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NEARER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED (30-60%) THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE (50-80%) AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND EAST THE I-49 CORRIDOR. MODERATE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST ALONG ACADIANA THROUGH DUSK WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. HIGHS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DURING AN EARLIER
MORNING UPDATE, GIVEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS BLOW OVER WITH A FOCUS ON
AREAS SEEING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY STILL
REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT AS CONDITIONS WILL STILL NEAR OR
CROSS INTO CRITERIA, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST LOCATIONS SUCH CITIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST INCLUDES RELATIVELY WARM / HOT CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING THROUGH THE UPPER 90S.
CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOWER
FOR TUESDAY, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY SEE HEADLINES TONIGHT
AS NEW DATA WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT TODAY'S RAINFALL AND REFINE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. PRESENTLY, CONVECTION GUIDANCE
RIGHTLY SHOWS CELLS STRUGGLING TO BUILD GIVEN THE INVERSION
PRODUCED FROM RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STILL YET, ANY
PERSISTING CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH PUTS MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES JUST BELOW THE BORDER OF AN
ADVISORY PER THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR THE ARKANSAS / LOUISIANA STATE
LINE WILL SETUP A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN BUTTING EAST OF THE TEXAS STATE LINE
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, THESE CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WORTH NOTING EACH DAY
MAY PRESENT A CONDITIONAL LOW END SEVERE RISK, MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS, ACROSS ACADIANA AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MODIFY SOUTHWARD
AS THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPANDS. LOCALLY, THIS
SIGNAL HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
AND APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACROSS GREATER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A SIMILAR SIGNAL IS SEEN ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE CHANCES IN PLACE TOO. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOW SIGNS OF LOWERING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH A FEW BACKYARDS STILL REACHING THE UPPER 90S. IN
CLOSING, THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAT RELATED RISKS,
HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE DO SEE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A
WETTING RAINFALL THIS WEEK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON TUESDAY
IN ACADIANA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
WEST OF ACADIANA, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LFT AND ARA STAND DECENT PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED TS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL A CONDITION
CHANCE FOR VCTS NEAR LCH THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR WILL
LIMIT IT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, OFTEN
WITH WEST BREEZES, THROUGH NOON 25TH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 1-2 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGHER MOISTURE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN AND AROUND THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL BRING
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
KBDI VALUES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 530 TO 750 ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. DAILY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 40-
50% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. PERSONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. BURN BANS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST PARISHES AND COUNTIES BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
CONSULT YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05
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