770
FXUS64 KLCH 061128
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING OF URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK TO HELP REDUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EVEN HOTTER AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A VERY MOIST AND TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (06/00Z) FROM KLCH SHOWING A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.24 INCHES WHICH IS WELL OVER THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND AT THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE.
SATURDAY IS LOOKING RATHER ACTIVE AND WET BY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE AROUND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
MOISTURE UP FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF WITH
UPPER LEVEL WINDS STREAMING IN EQUATORIAL EAST PAC MOISTURE. PWAT
VALUES WILL BASICALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND DAILY MOVING MAX. MEAN LAYER 100H-50H
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE OVER 80 PERCENT. WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTH STILL RUNNING OVER 12K FEET TO SHOW THE AIR MASS DEFINITELY
HAS A TROPICAL LOOK TO IT.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS MOVING
GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING FOR AN ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE THAT WILL GET GOING BY LATE MORNING AND PUSH INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LIFT FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND
OTHER COLLISIONS OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY GOING.
THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. HIGH
RAIN RATES IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE LOCAL PLAUSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH AVERAGE AREA WIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BASICALLY BE AROUND
1/2 INCH, HREF SHOWS PROBS OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 50-80%
RANGE AND OVER 3 INCHES IN THE 30-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE 6 HOUR
PERIOD BETWEEN 1 PM AND 7 PM. OBVIOUSLY IF THESE AMOUNTS FALL OVER
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, SOME STREET FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) RISK POTENTIAL OR AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ON SUNDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, SO HIGHER POPS DURING THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THE TIMES FOR BEST SHOWER
COVERAGE. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AGAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
THE WEAKNESS MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORMING. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE CLOSER TO CLIMO AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE INDUCED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWERING IN SHOWER AREAL COVERAGE, HEAT WILL
INCREASE WITH HIGHS UP IN THE LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEK AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS WILL BE POOR WITH LOW
VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT WILL BRING
WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...14
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