505
FXUS64 KLCH 242322
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING DRIER AIR WITH LESS HUMID DAYS
AND LOWER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING LIMITED RAIN CHANCES DURING
LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS BEFORE A NEW SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
WX MAP CURRENTLY CENTERS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER
EASTERN CANADA WITH MODERATE RIDGING EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS RESTING OVER THE WEST GULF AND COASTAL
STATES. THIS PATTERN HAS GENERALLY BE A SUPPRESSANT FOR ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, WHILE TEMPERATURES KEEP TO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AS PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WAFT IN AND OUT,
SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL TREND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY, LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHERLY, ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD
REALLY DOES NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY. SO ONLY ISOLATED
CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED SATURDAY / SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WHERE
BETTER CONVERGENCE MAY OCCUR WITH THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL REGIME
NEAR THE COAST.
SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND
THERE ARE SIGNALS OF POTENTIALLY HIGH ANOMALOUS RAINFALL THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT WE'LL TOUCH ON SHORTLY. A TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER BAJA ON
TUESDAY AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATE EASTWARD, RELEASING A LARGE PLUME
OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BORDER STATES.
CONCURRENTLY, THE FLUX OF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE AND SPREAD OF
ISOLATED CHANCES. AS WEAK TROUGHING BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE
WESTERN GULF, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THE TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE PLAINS UPON EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRENDS
THIS WAY, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH
MAY BE TRANSLATED AS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE THUNDERSHOWERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF STREAMS OF
MOISTURE INTERACTING IN A VERY BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCALLY SHOWS
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
SO WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS HAVE ONCE AGAIN TRENDED DRY ENOUGH TO
CREATE A SLOW DEVELOPING DROUGHT, THE POSSIBILITY OF RECEIVING MORE
THAN A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS VERY REAL TO CONSIDER. THIS
FORECASTING LOGIC IS CONGRUENT WITH PREVIOUS DAYS' LONG RANGE CPC
AND WPC OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. ONE LAST NOTE, PROVIDED THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WETTER TREND NEXT WEEK, IS THAT BLENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE MID / UPPER 80S. WHILE STILL WARM,
THESE WOULD FALL INTO SEASONABLE NORMS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT SHOULD PROHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODEST EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW
SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING LIMIT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DRIER AIR MASS WITH LESS HUMID DAYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS.
THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO
45 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE RETURNS OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL
OF A WETTING RAINFALL (GREATER THAN 0.25") DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM SETUPS NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page