270
FXUS64 KLCH 121118
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UNDERNEATH AN
AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS TO FORM NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OR
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100
AND 107 DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY WITH THE HEAT RISK AT
THE MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
IT WAS A MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS
RUNNING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
NUMEROUS TODAY, HOWEVER, ALL ACTIVITY WAS WANING OFF FOR THE
EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF OFF SHORE SHOWERS.
A LARGE SUMMERTIME HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST WHILE
AN AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ONSHORE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER WEAKNESS. THIS PATTERN WILL OFFER DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FREQUENCY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR TYPICAL PULSE THUNDERSTORM
AFTERNOONS. THEREFORE, ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, GENERALLY
EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS WE ADVANCE INTO THE WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BOTH THE AI
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE TO EVOLVE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. IF THIS MATERIALIZES,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 90S. I STILL BELIEVE SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME
THAT WILL BRING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOWER
VIS AND CEILINGS DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE WINDS MAY BE GUSTY IN
STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
OFF SHORE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
MAYBE BEYOND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS.
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE CONSISTENT RANGING
FROM 0 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 3 TO 4 FT DUE TO WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
LOCALIZED WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WOULD
CREATE A RAPID SPREAD IN WILDLAND FIRES.
VEGETATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF LOUISIANA HAS
EXPERIENCED HEALTHY RAINFALL TO MAINTAIN MOIST FUELS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND CHANCES FAVOR LOW WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOK FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...CRAMER
AVIATION...05
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