781
FXUS64 KLCH 132257
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
POSE A FLOOD RISK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CALM AND BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
ONLY NOTABLE WEATHER CONCERN BEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. WHILE
THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY ARE
CERTAINLY WARM ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WORD OF CAUTION FOR THOSE
SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS SUPPRESSED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, HOWEVER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
OUT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF,
KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. THE CONSTANT STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE HAS KEPT OUR PWATS ELEVATED, HOWEVER WE WILL SEE QUITE A
BUMP IN PWATS AS A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
SOUTH TEXAS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA OF THE GULF COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING, AS BOTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. FOR NOW, THE MODELS SHOW PWATS
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CLOSER TO THE DAILY
MAX FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
DETERMINISTIC QPF TOTALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 3.3 TO 4 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT TOTALS, RAINFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE EFFICIENT, WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR OR LESS BENEATH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED PARTS OF OUR CWA IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
NUISANCE STREET FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY DIRECT IMPACT AS EVEN
THE BEST DRAINAGE WILL STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE COPIOUS
RAINFALL. ON THE UPSIDE, OVERCAST SKIES AND PLENTIFUL PRECIP WILL
HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT AS A BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION, CARRYING SOME OF THE DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. AS
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL DECREASE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TRENDING UPWARD ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
THIN BR MAY OCCUR TOWARD SUNRISE AT KAEX THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS AT ANY TERMINAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY TERMINAL DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A
SHOWER, THUNDERSTORM, OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. REGARDING
SHRA/TSRA, MENTION WAS OMITTED FROM THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITIES AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENT. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY NEAR KAEX. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SEAS WILL
INCREASE, IN TURN, TO 3 TO 5 FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED
WINDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAILING. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE
COAST. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, BUT IT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF THAT WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page