256
FXUS64 KLCH 101733
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL HELP TO
INCREASE CONVECTION SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES TICK UP FURTHER BY MONDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE AREA-WIDE
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD IS DOING LITTLE TO KEEP A CAP ON CONVECTION
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE LAST FEW HOURS. STILL, TODAY WILL
BE OUR LAST SOMEWHAT DRY DAY FOR A WHILE AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
SET TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY, EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S.
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE ROCKIES, WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL EVENTUALLY GET HUNG UP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CREATING A WEAKNESS ALOFT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO PULL A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST REGION, CAUSING PWATS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SURGE TO
NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. ALL OF
THIS, TOGETHER WITH THE SEABREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING, WILL RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BEGIN FIRING UP NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE QUICKLY AS WE START TO WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW (WHEN COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS), SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND. WPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY, AS A RESULT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME CUT
OFF FROM A LARGER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX THROUGH THE
MON/TUES TIME FRAME, CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER
AS IT PROVIDES SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO WORK WITH, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WILL BECOME
A GREATER CONCERN AS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS INCREASES. WPC HAS
OUTLINED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ON
TUESDAY, AS A RESULT. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON BOTH MON AND TUES, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES TAPER DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES TAPER BACK UP AS WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. WHILE WE SHIFT AWAY FROM CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
WE MAY HAVE TO START LOOKING AT HEAT INDICES AS RIDGING BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FIRED UP ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE A BIT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THESE STORMS SHOULD
CAUSE MINIMAL TO NO ISSUES AT THE TERMINALS UNLESS ONE PASSES
OVERHEAD BRIEFLY. SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET AS WINDS RELAX.
TOMORROW, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FIRE OFF A BIT EARLIER IN THE
DAY NEAR THE COAST, EXPANDING TOWARDS THE I-10 TERMINALS BY MID-
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING A BIT BY THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO STEADILY INCREASE
EACH DAY. BY MONDAY, WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ALOFT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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