188
FXUS64 KLCH 091731
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
ENDING AROUND SUNSET.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF LOWER ACADIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERALLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CREATE OR EXACERBATE FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS INCREASED THEIR DAY ONE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RECENT RAIN. IN
ADDITION TO THE FLOOD RISK, A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
BIGGEST THREATS (THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES).
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WHILE SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CALM AND WITH THE GROUND SATURATED IN MANY SPOTS FROM
TODAY'S RAINS, AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY
COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF OF POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH ACTIVITY
COMING TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OCCURRING TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 01Z.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AWAY FROM STORMS WHILE FALLING TO IFR
NEAR CONVECTION. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08 AND 14Z SUNDAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THESE WILL BE LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE LAKES AND BAYS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SOMEWHAT COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
ON LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY. THIS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RH VALUES
INTO THE 40-50% RANGE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
IN A QUICK TURN OF PRECIPITABLE FORTUNE THE CLIMATE SITE
AT LAFAYETTE HAS NOW REACHED 0.06 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
YEAR TO DATE NOT INCLUDING PRECIPITATION THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS
MORNING AND ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE FOUR OTHER
CLIMATE SITES (LCH, BPT, AEX AND ARA) REMAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 7 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL YEAR TO DATE WITH LCH BEING THE DRIEST.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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