206
FXUS64 KLCH 141756
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SE TX TOMORROW, WHERE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 102-109.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE ARK-LA-
TEX WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM NEAR
FLORIDA. ALOFT, STRONG RIDGING DOMINATES THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND A VERY MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD
HAS AGAIN RESULTED IN A WET START TO THE DAY, WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
SEEN 3-6" OF RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY, CONVECTION HAS
FINALLY BEGUN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, LEAVING
BEHIND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WE COULD SEE A BIT MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, BUT FOR
THE MAJORITY OF US THIS DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR ONE MORE DAY, BEFORE WE BEGIN TO WARM UP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST, BECOMING SITUATED OVER TX, WHILE THE STALLED FRONT SLOWLY
MEANDERS NORTHWARD. WITH THE LOSS OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION, POPS WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD TOMORROW. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE OVER SE TX, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
BY THE MID-MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS LA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE REMINISCENT
OF OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON SUMMERTIME CONVECTION VS. THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SE TX COUNTIES TOMORROW.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, BRINGING AN END TO
THE WET PATTERN AND SHIFTING US TOWARDS A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WE COULD SEE ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND EVEN THEN
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (15-25% AT BEST). INSTEAD, IT WILL BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-106 DEGREE
RANGE. SATURDAY AND BEYOND, TEMPS CLIMB FURTHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 101-109 RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
APART FROM SOME LIGHT RAINFALL, CONVECTION HAS LARGELY CLEARED OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY, WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO, IF ANYTHING,
AT THE I-10 TERMINALS. TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS LINGER. TOMORROW, MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
BPT BY MID-MORNING, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 60
TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DROPPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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