027
FXUS64 KLCH 021148
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
548 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES SOUTHEAST
QUICKLY TODAY BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW END RAIN CHANCES
FOR EXTREME CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR EAST CENTRAL AND COASTAL LA AS
WELL AS COASTAL TX. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR
LAKES, BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A
COOL PACIFIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A RETURN TO WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S
STARTS AGAIN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS ANALYZED A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALOFT, WHERE THERE WAS RIDGING OVERHEAD, IT HAS
SINCE FLATTENED OUT AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING LOW. THICKENING CLOUD COVER IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SET
IN OVERHEAD, AS ALSO MEASURED BY THE 00Z RAOB. LASTLY, THE WARM
FRONT HAS OFFICIALLY MOVED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SINCE AEX NOW
REPORTS DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN AND BOTTOM UP AS PACIFIC MOISTURE BUILDS IN
OVERTOP THE NORTHWEST GULF STATES.
AS STATED PREVIOUSLY, THE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE COMING
HOURS WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WIND AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF ITS
ARRIVAL. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE SHARPER, COOLER AIRMASS AND BETTER
LIFT, THERE IS A WEDGE OF DRY SFC AIR DEVELOPING. THIS CAN BE SEEN
ALREADY BY AIRMASS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL SWIPE
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE BETTER LIFT, LIMITING THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL
WITH THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE LATER TODAY (FRIDAY.) A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-49 AND ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA.
AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES, WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM LATE TONIGHT, BUT
MOST PRIMARILY DURING DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. 850 MB TROF APPEARS TO
TAKE ON A RATHER SHARP, AMPLIFICATION RIGHT AS IT PASSES THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA STATE LINE RESULTING IN A PINCHED CORRIDOR OF STRONG
WINDS RIGHT ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO LOWER ACADIANA. FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH COULD MAKE TRAFFIC SOMEWHAT HAZARDOUS AND
COULD BLOW AROUND HOLIDAY DECORATIONS. SO IF THOSE ARE ISSUES FOR
YOU, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND! A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM.
WINDS TURN NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH A SLOW AND STEADY STREAM OF
INCREASINGLY DRY/COOL AIR FILTERING IN UNTIL A SECONDARY TROF CAN
PASS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER
SOUTHWARD THE COOL, PACIFIC FRONT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR SUNDAY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
RIDING SETTING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE WEEKEND TROF WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE AIRMASS TEMPS TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. RETURNING MOISTURE ALSO
BRINGS WITH IT HUMID OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS AND A RETURN OF AT LEAST
MARINE FOG, PERHAPS SOME RADIATIONAL FOG AS WELL.
LATE IN THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A TROF MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT WOULD BRING AT LEAST A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WORK WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND VIS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS OVER THE AREA. OVER THE
EVENING, WINDS WILL TAPER AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST
THAT COULD ADVECT INTO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND RADIATIONAL FOG
FOR OTHER AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL LOW AT
THIS MOMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AFTER SUNRISE,
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS ENHANCE QUICKLY IN RESPONSE WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN WATERS OFF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS BETTER LIFT WITH THE PASSING FRONT MEETS WITH
MOISTURE.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY ON INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS. GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ENHANCE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTS IN DAYTIME RH MINIMUMS 50 TO 65 PERCENT.
EVEN WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE, A DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT MOST MOISTURE BEFORE RAIN CAN
DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CAP MOST RAIN CHANCES TO EXTREME EAST CENTRAL
AND EAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY MORNING.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON NORTHERLY
WINDS SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 54 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 75 61 75 48 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 76 64 75 47 / 20 10 0 0
BPT 78 58 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-
241>243-252>254.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ455-472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...87
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