372
FXUS64 KLCH 152315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ACADIANA UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100F AND HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 108 TO 111F RANGE.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-111F RANGE.
- NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AFTERNOON SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND 15TH/18Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATES VERY
LITTLE MIXING OCCURRING DURING THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS BUILDING INLAND FROM COASTAL SETX
AND VEERING BACK OFFSHORE OVER ACADIANA. FROM THE SOUNDING, WINDS
RATHER STAGNANT AT OR BELOW 10KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 350MB.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ACADIANA AND THE I-49
CORRIDOR UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. BLENDED GUIDANCES HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING THE LIKELY SPREAD OF DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE LOWER THAN
THE DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT LARGELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA- SANS
LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG LARGER LAKES / RIVERS. BASIS CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS TODAY WHERE RH IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FORECAST ROUGHLY IN THE 25TH-50TH PERCENTILE RANGE, THE FORECAST
ANALYSIS DOES NOT SUPPORT ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY, AT
THIS MOMENT. HOWEVER... IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THAT CONDITIONS ARE
VERY BORDERLINE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG ACADIANA AND NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES ACROSS SETX. PEOPLE ARE STILL HIGHLY ENCOURAGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION BEING OUTDOORS IN THIS WEATHER TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES DESPITE PERSISTING CONDITIONS TRENDING LOWER
THAN DANGEROUS LEVELS WHILE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE REGION. BETTER PUT, AS MY COLLEAGUE WROTE LAST NIGHT- KEEP AN
EYE ON OTHERS, HYDRATE!!!!!, DON'T WALK YOUR DOGS ON EXPOSED
PAVEMENT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS, STICK TO THE SHADE OR AVOID
OUTDOOR EXPOSURE WHEN POSSIBLE. LOOK TO YOUR LOCAL MUNICIPALITIES
FOR LOCAL HEAT ASSISTANCE.
MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SOME EASTWARD
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE SECONUS. WE WILL STILL BE RECEIVING LIGHT
SOUTH / SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE ADDITION OF INCREASED
SURFACE FLOW, EVEN BY A FEW KNOTS, MAY HELP TO HEDGE DEWPOINTS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER. COMBINED WITH ACCUMULATED HEAT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TREND IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 190. UPPER
90'S TO NEAR 100F WILL BE A STEADY FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT,
HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
ADDITIONALLY, DRY FUELS SUCH AS GRASS / SMALL BRUSH VEGETATION
WILL BECOME MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES AS KBDI INCREASES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE IS A HINT OF A PATTERN CHANGE
COMING INTO THE LENS OF THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK. UPPER AIR PATTERN
BEGINS TO MODIFY THE NORTHERN JET SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST. THUS, ISOLATED POPS START TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
FORECAST MOVING TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BE ABLE TO TIE IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. FOR NOW COUNT ON A MAINLY DRY BUT
HOT FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY LOW END ISOLATED
CHANCES ENTERING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VRB TONIGHT AND BECOME SW AT 4 TO 8 KTS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FETCH IN PLACE OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BELOW 10 KNOTS, WHICH ALSO KEEPS SEAS LOW.
A GREATER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY HOT
AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND DRY WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. KBDI WILL RANGE 550-730, WITH THE HIGHER
VALUES LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MONDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-
044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05
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