997
FXUS64 KLCH 151759
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL HELP KEEP CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING
ALOFT AND MOISTURE MOVING INLAND TUESDAY COULD BRING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 2 TO 3F.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
PATTERN IS STARTING TO TURN OVER, AS IS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL CLOUD
COVER, THIN AS IT MAY BE. 18Z RAOB IS RATHER INDICATIVE OF THIS
MOIST CLOUD LAYER AROUND 800 MB WITH A MIXED SURFACE AND DRY AIR
STILL VERY PRESENT ALOFT. ALSO VERY PRESENT ALOFT AND IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY AND MEANDER WESTWARD IN THE COMING
DAY, CLEARING OFF ANY UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA. WHILE SOME HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL BE PRESENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE GENERATED BY A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WAVE
OF MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN-OUTS EITHER DAY
AS PWATS IN THE 1.55 TO 1.70 INCHES RANGE ARE FORECAST. TO GIVE
SOME CONTEXT, THE MEDIAN CLIMATOLOGICAL PWAT FOR 9/16 IS ~1.55
INCHES. TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL GULLY WASHER, A PWAT CLOSER TO OR
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~2.05 INCHES) IS NEEDED.
THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ASSIST WITH KEEPING HIGHS
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S CAN BE
ANTICIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
PATTERN REALLY LIVENS UP LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SE US UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT LATE WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF
DROPS OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE RIDGING CAN SET BACK IN ON
THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY RISE THURSDAY SIMPLY BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES, SO RAIN CHANCES DO FALTER SLIGHTLY. BY FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF LOWS WILL ROLL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE TROF TRAVERSING THE US, RESULTING IN A FEW WAVES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD,
BUT GLOBAL FLOW IS SHOWING SIGNS TO INDICATE A MERIDIONAL PATTERN
MAY BE SETTING UP TOWARDS THE END OF SEPTEMBER. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS (NORMAL IS ROUGHLY
89F) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SO, MUCH OF THE SAME AS IN DAYS
PREVIOUS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE WHICH IS EVIDENT BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOME VERY ISOLATED AREA SHOWERS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE MENTIONS OF CONVECTION
AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER, MVFR RANGE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
IT'S POSSIBLE TO HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MORNING FOG, BUT NOT
VERY LIKELY.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF OUTER WATERS ENHANCING TO 2 TO 3 FT AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON PASSING WAVES. RAIN CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO ERODE TODAY INTO THE COMING DAYS ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. DAYTIME RH VALUES IN THE 45 TO 55
PERCENT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN COMING DAYS.
WEAKNESS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF LOW
END RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 92 69 93 69 / 10 0 20 10
LCH 91 72 93 72 / 20 0 20 10
LFT 91 72 91 70 / 10 10 20 10
BPT 91 71 92 72 / 20 0 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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