030
FXUS64 KLCH 221127
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA,
WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT CONTINUES TO CAUSE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY, BECOMING A WARM FRONT, WITH THE ENTIRE
REGION REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN, WITH PWAT VALUES
WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND RH VALUES ABOVE 70% IN BOTH
THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE HIGH RAIN RATES, MAKING THESE STORMS
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, THE WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA FOR A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH EITHER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OR A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVERHEAD WHILE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN 24 HOURS.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EJECT OVER THE REGION. EACH DAY, AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WE EXPECT MOST, IF
NOT ALL, DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO BE ELIMINATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE
MID-70S. HUMIDITY WILL BE PERSISTENT, WITH MINIMUM OVERNIGHT RH
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 70%.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT
22/14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ACADIANA
HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF THE CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE
PROB30 FOR KAEX/KLFT/KARA TO HANDLE THIS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE WIND-DRIVEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST; HOWEVER,
MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ONSHORE DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 70% FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...07
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