225  
FXUS64 KLCH 230539  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1139 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
06Z TAFS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT  
THAT IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL  
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.  
STEADY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO  
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG OUT OF  
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL  
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
JONES  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 917 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/  
 
UPDATE...  
AS OF 23/03Z, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL  
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE  
CHARLES LINE, AS LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS BEING  
FELT. THE RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE DFW METROPLEX  
AND WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST  
AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND  
CONGEAL INTO A SOLID LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THAT WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS  
LACKING SO REALLY DON'T EXPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION OR MUCH IN  
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST, ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT  
DROP IN TEMPERATURES.  
 
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO  
THE GRIDS.  
 
RUA  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
00Z TAFS  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CEILINGS AT THIS HOUR WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR  
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING THE  
DAY WEDNESDAY.  
 
SCATTERED, MAINLY LIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE  
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON  
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES  
AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN  
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL  
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...  
COMBO OF THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO A WARM/MUGGY/BREEZY DAY OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE  
CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS/WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT SPREADING OUT  
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY  
MAINLY OUT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH LOCAL  
88DS DO SHOW SCATTERED STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA OUT  
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND.  
 
STILL LOOKING AT A SOGGY NEXT 18-24 HOURS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD  
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW  
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, ALLOWING FOR A STEADY  
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES/PASSES. SOUNDINGS  
ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR THE  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...MAYBE A SMALL WINDOW LATE TOMORROW MORNING  
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT  
FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST-TO-EAST  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRIER FLOW ALOFT FILTERS OVER THE  
REGION...PERHAPS A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD LINGERING INTO  
THE EVENING HOURS OVER EXTREME LOWER ACADIANA.  
 
THE MAIN STORY BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE COLD AIR AS  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER, THEN PAST THE FORECAST AREA.  
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LINGER IN THE 40S FOR THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA.  
MINS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF  
I-10...32-35 SOUTH EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING  
FOR FRIDAY LOWS ARE PROGGED MOSTLY IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
MORNINGS, ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 20S LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
EXTREME NRN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. TODAY'S MODEL RUNS ARE  
DISAGREEING ON A POTENTIAL SECONDARY BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE  
AREA ON FRIDAY...REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA  
ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL AS DRY WITH NO REAL RETURN FLOW  
DEVELOPING IN FRONT OF IT.  
 
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF  
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT CROSSING SRN TX, MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF  
BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY TURNING SRLY BY EARLY  
SATURDAY, COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SOME  
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT  
BEFORE THE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSH EAST OF THE  
REGION. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE, YET ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
MARINE...  
AN ELEVATED SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT  
WHICH TIME, AN ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. ALL INHERITED  
HEADLINES LOOKED GOOD WITH THE UPDATED WIND/WAVE GRIDS SO NO  
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 68 43 48 30 / 50 100 100 0  
LCH 71 46 50 34 / 30 90 100 0  
LFT 70 56 60 33 / 40 50 90 0  
BPT 71 44 48 34 / 30 100 90 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ455.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ432.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...66  
 
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