805
FXUS64 KLCH 231747
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY90 CORRIDOR WHERE SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR.
-A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING
-COOLER-FEELING AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
PACIFIC MOISTURE COALESCES WITH STRONGER RETURNING GULF FLOW
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE PATTERN BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH TIGHT RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES DRY AIR
DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-90S THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS REINFORCING
THIS DRIER WEATHER LOCALLY, THOUGH RECENT SOUNDINGS SHOW OCCASIONAL
WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LAYER THAT COULD STILL
SQUEEZE OUT A QUICK, ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER.WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE
WILL TREND CLOSER TOWARD STANDARD SEA LEVEL PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MAJORITY OF THE
SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. THE "QUICK AND DIRTY" FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THAT
WE EXPECT MINIMAL RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
PAR FOR THE START OF FALL THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON
SUNDAY, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE MID-90S ACROSS CENTRAL LA. ISOLATED POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION.
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTRODUCES A POTENTIALLY CONCERNING,
UNSETTLED WET PATTERN THAT REMAINS SUBJECT TO MODEL VARIABILITY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE TEXAS
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIVING AN INCREASED GULF
MOISTURE FLUX ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CONCURRENTLY, AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WICK INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER STATES. GIVEN THE CPC SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF STATES, THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT
WEEK'S PATTERN NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THIS THREAT HIGHLIGHTS
THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND, WITH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS POTENTIALLY EXTENDING WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.
KEEP IN MIND THAT IMPENDING CHANGES TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
DICTATE WHETHER THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ULTIMATELY ENHANCED OR
MITIGATED.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GRANTED AN ISOLATED TS, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL OR GROUP BE BETTER SUBJECTED TO
VICINITY ACTIVITY TOWARD END OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE SEABREEZE
INTERACTION CAN STIR UP A FEW BOUNDARIES. BOTTOM LINE DRY AIR HOLDS
FOR THE NEXT DAY WHILE WITH LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING IN OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT THE AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ELEVATED WINDS. ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED.
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN WINDS
TURN ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, ARE POSSIBLE. A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH AN ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER, AND PERHAPS COOLER, AIR TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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