579
FXUS64 KLCH 151737
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1237 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
- HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES AS
WELL AS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY.
- LOW WATER POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY CALM WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST MUGGY DAY, AS A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT WILL COME MUCH COOLER WEATHER,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAYS OF THE
FORECAST WITH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION.
STARTING ON FRIDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN
THE MORNING, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REACH THE COAST, WHERE THEY WILL INCREASE WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS APPROACHING GALE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN
THE CWA. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON FRIDAY WILL BE A MISMATCH
BETWEEN THE LOWEST RH AND HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AS THE DRIEST AIR
MOVES IN, WITH THE DRIEST AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA AFTER
SUNSET. ONE THING THAT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH IS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR DRY AIR AT 850 MB TO BE MIXED DOWN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES PLUMMETING EARLY AND COULD EXTEND THE
ELEVATED FIRE RISK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK ON SATURDAY, THE DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE, AND AFTER SUNRISE NORTH WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15
AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN PLACE AREA-WIDE FOR SATURDAY, AND A RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT, KBDI VALUES
ARE ABOVE 700. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY, WITH 10-HOUR FUELS SHOWING RH
VALUES BELOW 20%. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, IT IS IMPERATIVE
NOT TO BURN ANYTHING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PAY ATTENTION TO
ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND REPORT FIRES TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL GIVE US A PRIMARILY EASTERLY WIND, WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR DRY STREAK GOING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RISE NEXT WEEK, GETTING BACK INTO THE LOW 90S OR HIGH 80S BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATE AT NIGHT, WE COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG, BUT A FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 6 TO 7 AM WILL QUICKLY WIPE OUT ANY FOG. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS, AND A GALE WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR NEARSHORE AND
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP ON SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE OVER
30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE WINDS, BUILDING TO 11 FEET IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
SABINE PASS AND TEXAS PASS BOTH APPROACH LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING LOW TIDE, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL REACH THE -1.0 FEET BELOW MLLW NECESSARY FOR AN
ADVISORY. AT THE START OF THE WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR NEARSHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED CENTRAL LOUISIANA FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
RISK ON FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO PLUMMETING
DEW POINTS, WITH MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BELOW 30%. FRIDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE LACKING, WITH MAXRH ONLY AROUND 50 TO
60%. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY IS THE
MORE CONCERNING OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH LOW RH VALUES LINING UP WITH
20-FOOT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH; GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT AND HIGHER. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, AND THE AVERAGE KBDI VALUE IS
OVER 700 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ027>030.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-
241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ029-
032-033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ180-259-260.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ515-
516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page