234
FXUS64 KLCH 260520
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY, LOWER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE FROM
THE MIDWEST THROUGH TODAY THAT WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW AND A
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE THAT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY IN CHECK. ALSO, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EAST
TEXAS THAT WILL BRING DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH AND AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO
NORMS. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND TO RETURN OFF
THE GULF. THIS WILL MODIFY THE AIR MASS SOME WITH STILL HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BIT MORE HUMID. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST, WILL KEEP THE MID LEVEL DRY AND LIKELY TO HELP
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK SOME SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE IN PLAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MERGE WITH A REMNANT PACIFIC TROPICAL LOW. GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT GETS CUT OFF
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. THEREFORE, DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
IS NOTED BY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND WHICH DAY
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS TOWARD THURSDAY-FRIDAY
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A MAINLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SATURDAY IS EXPECTING TO BE A REPEAT
WITH FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HOWEVER ANY
CEILINGS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 3K FEET. THEREFORE, VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PERSIST.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
EAST, A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
TODAY WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THE RESULT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER THE AIR MASS
WILL ONLY MODIFY SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE, RELATIVELY LOW MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WHEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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