845
FXUS64 KLCH 072003
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
303 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY MOIST AIRMASS LINGERS TODAY LEADING TO RAIN RATES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEK TO HELP REDUCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EVEN HOTTER AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 100 AND 109
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE AKIN TO A TROPICAL VACATION DESTINATION
MINUS THE VACATION PART. TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WITH ACTIVITY
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO TAPER AFTER SUNSET. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS TRIMMED BACK TO INCLUDE
INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, WITH OVERALL RAIN CHANCES A BIT LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, IT'S BEST NOT TO LET YOUR GUARD DOWN.
ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES REPEATED (OR EVEN JUST ONE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY) SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, LIMITING THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
THE ATMOSPHERE AND FORECAST IN GENERAL ARE BEGINNING TO "DRY OUT,"
SO TO SPEAK. AND WHILE THAT STATEMENT MAY SOUND DRIPPING WITH
SARCASM, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT OUR 18Z SOUNDING HAD A PWAT VALUE
OF ONLY 1.98 INCHES. THAT'S STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, BUT
AT LEAST TODAY IT WASN'T FLIRTING WITH THE DAILY MAXIMUM AGAIN.
FORECAST PWAT VALUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, WITH POPS GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THAT OCCURS, AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S, SO SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
HEAT INDICES CREEP INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TERMINALS IN THE VICINITY OF OR
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
TAPER THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TOMORROW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD, LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH SEAS
AROUND 1-3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY KEEPING HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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