318
FXUS64 KLCH 220516
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1216 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH COOL
MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS EACH DAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 20 TO
40 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATED RIDGING SITUATED FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WHILE TROUGHING IS OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, A DRY N/NW FLOW IS ONGOING ALOFT
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONTINUOUS DRY AIR
ADVECTION THE 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF 0.69", ONLY UP 0.03"
FROM THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING, WHICH IS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE
ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS
WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST EVENTUALLY BECOMING SITUATED OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE RIDGE WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT
BEFORE GRADUALLY BROADENING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CENTER OF THE EAST
CONUS SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY DRIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHERE IT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIGHTEN A BIT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY OVER THE WEEKEND, THEY WILL STILL MAINTAIN A
MAINLY EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
THEREFORE, NO REAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE OR
ALOFT FOR A WHILE LONGER KEEPING A REPETITIVE DRY PATTERN IN PLACE.
PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN BELOW 1" THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY, WHEN THEREAFTER GUIDANCE STARTS TO DEPICT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
MOISTURE. STILL, THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO BRING ANY PRECIP FOR A
WHILE LONGER AS RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS A CAP OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO 50S WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 20S TO 40S EACH DAY (HIGHEST AT THE COAST). IN
ADDITION, THE DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S
FURTHER SOUTH/NEAR THE COAST EACH NIGHT. WHILE THE DRY AIR IS VERY
WELCOMED, IT DOES MEAN WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER
IN MIND THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH MOST PARISHES IN OUR
CWA (ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN TX) NOW IN A BURN BAN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
NEAR CALM WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE, INCREASING TO AROUND
4-8KTS OUT OF THE EAST THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT INTO THE 15-20 KT
RANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA, WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT BRINGING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO OUR CWA. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID 80S WHILE ANY MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH FALLING TO THE 20-35
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK WITH ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LOCKED IN AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FURTHER DRYING OF FUELS AND LIKELY FURTHER DEGRADATION IN REGIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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