023
FXUS64 KLCH 311727
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 102-109F.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING A 30-60% CHANCE OF RAIN. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, BUT BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED.
- A FEW, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FRIDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN THE PLAINS. ALOFT,
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE COAST, MAY TOUCH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID-100S.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EVOLVES INTO A BROADER
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE A SURFACE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ARK-LA-
TEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TO THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
THIS WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE FOR US TEMPERATURE WISE, WITH HIGHS STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID-90S BOTH SAT AND SUN, IT WILL BRING A BIT OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH A BRIEF NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT ALONG
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SAT INTO SUN.
ANY REPREIVE FROM THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER THAT THIS FRONT IS ABLE
TO BRING WILL BE SHORT LIVED, WITH SW/S SURFACE WINDS RETURNING ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY WASHED OUT OVERHEAD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD, LOSING ITS HOLD OVER
THE E CONUS BY LATE MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE, BROAD FLAT RIDGING WILL
AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. WITH SOMEWHAT WEAK RIDGING
OVERHEAD, A FEW AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 3000-4000FT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS REMAIN MAINLY
W TO SW AROUND 10KTS. TONIGHT, WINDS RELAX WHILE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR APART FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS. TOMORROW, WINDS
STRENGTHEN A BIT THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20KTS
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW,
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY. AS THIS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES IT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20KTS THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WINDS INCREASE A
BIT FURTHER WITH SUSTAINED 15-20KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS. THE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SAT THROUGH
SUN. AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW, AND
A SCA MAY BRIEFLY BE NEEDED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MINIMUM RH'S SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-50% RANGE. WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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