561
FXUS64 KLCH 140455
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE IN THE
REGION.
- MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES SHOULD RANGE FROM 101 TO 107F EACH DAY. NO
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED, BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
- MARINE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE STARTING IN THE MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, BUT WITH THE ADDITION OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL RISE
TO THE 95TH PERCENTILE, WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 598 DM. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WILL BE A ROBUST RIDGE, WE WILL STILL BE ON ITS PERIPHERY, AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE
MID- TO UPPER 90S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS
OF THE FORECAST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 107. AS STATED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN “INVERTED-V” PROFILE
THAT WILL HELP MIX OUR DEW POINTS DOWN. THIS MIXING OF DRY AIR
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE SHOULD DROP OUR DEW POINTS JUST ENOUGH
TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THE 108 °F THRESHOLD. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THIS PROFILE DOWNBURST IS A CONCERN
WITH ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY,
BRINGING A DRIER AIR MASS AND LOWERING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S. WHILE NOT A COLD FRONT BY ANY STRETCH OF THE
IMAGINATION, AT THIS POINT IN THE SUMMER, WE WILL TAKE ANY RELIEF
WE CAN GET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. NEAR SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR, MAINLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT A CONCERN.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CALM,
WITH SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
NEAR MIDWEEK, A DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT FETCH ALONG THE COAST
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR SIMILAR
HEADLINES STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVEN'T DONE MUCH TO BRING RELIEF
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE KBDI
VALUES ARE NOW HOVERING AROUND 750. AFTERNOON MINRH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40 TO 50% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE DAYS TO WATCH FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL DROP MINRH VALUES
INTO THE 30S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS ON BOTH DAYS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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