416
FXUS64 KLCH 231718
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 20 PERCENT THIS WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MAX
APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING MOSTLY IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WATER LEVELS IN RIVERS AND BAYOUS REMAIN ELEVATED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WILL HELP
KEEP THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RAIN-FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TO OUR NORTH, A LARGE MCS IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH, AND WHILE
CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM DYING OUT NORTH OF
ALEXANDRIA, WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
RAPIDES AND AVOYELLES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING,
CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 2500 J/KG, AND STORMS THAT DO FORM
COULD HAVE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HEAVY RAIN RATES. WITH THE
MAJORITY OF AVOYELLES STILL IN AN AERIAL FLOOD WARNING, ANY RAIN
WILL HAVE OUTSIZED IMPACTS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW—AROUND 10%—AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD AND SHIFT TO OUR WEST. THE
LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE HIGH-PRESSURE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A NARROW WINDOW OF RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH IS EJECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES. FALLING HEIGHTS FROM THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE-DRIVEN CAPPING INVERSION AND WILL CREATE A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. IMPACTS ON ACADIANA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE
UNLIKELY, BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST, CUTTING OUR RAIN CHANCES TO BASICALLY
ZERO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOVING AWAY FROM THE RAIN IMPACTS, HEAT WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR
CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF JUNE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DUE
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, AND OUR HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST
AND THE UPPER 90S FARTHER INLAND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS
SUCH, WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL KEEP A TROPICAL
AIR MASS IN PLACE. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE MID 70S NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS. STILL, EVERYONE SHOULD TAKE HEAT PRECAUTIONS THIS
WEEK BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING PLENTY OF BREAKS FROM THE HEAT,
AND LIMITING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE
DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY
CLOUDS ARE CAUSING SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR IMPACTS DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. THIS AFTERNOON CAMS ARE SHOWING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT NEAR AEX AND A TEMPO GROUP IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM WITH PATCHY FOG
FORMING NEAR SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERN WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF AND THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP OUR
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO BE LOW WITH POPS BELOW 10% OVER THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PERSISTENT SOUTHERN FLOW WILL KEEP MINRH
VALUES NEAR 50% WHILE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE NEAR 100%.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND 1 TO 10 HOUR
FUELS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. OVERALL THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN LOW.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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