625
FXUS64 KLCH 071118
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AS OF 0100CDT, WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR,
HOWEVER THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OVER THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SOME AREAS, WE COULD SEE PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WHICH WILL
MAINLY BE DEPENDENT ON WIND SPEEDS. THE FRONT IS BISECTING THE CWA,
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE IT WILL STALL BEFORE WEAKLY RETROGRADING BACK THROUGH OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THAT, WE CAN
LOOK FORWARD TO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
BAJA CALI MAKES AN EASTWARD TREK FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
SWIMMING POOL OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INCOMING SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RAIN WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED) HAS
PROMPTED WPC TO PLACE THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY THEN MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/4) ON
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE BROADER
FLOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAINING IN THE AREA. PROBABILISTIC RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THOSE TWO DAYS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH 10 PERCENT
EXCEEDANCE VALUES UPWARDS OF 4.5 INCHES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT WILL ALL BE PUSHED OUT BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MID TO LATE SUNDAY. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY, WITH THE CONDITIONS IT WILL
BRING BEING SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF US ON
TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FROM THEN AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK
BY OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN, ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THEY WILL BE
GENERALLY WITHIN 3 TO 8 DEGREES FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR
THIS TIME OF MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
BREEZY N WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, BECOMING
LIGHT BY THE EVENING AND SHIFTING MORE NE. IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR BY 15-17Z AND THEN TO VFR BY
21-23Z. SITES SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT AT BPT WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BUILD IN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING AND LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE
NORTH FLOW ANTICIPATED MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING. IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN OUT OF THE WEST.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...17
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