918
FXUS64 KLCH 111749
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY WEATHER AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR
AREAS.
-SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY INTO
MONDAY.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR BRIEFLY TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES AND OFFER ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER SE LA WHICH IS ALLOWING THE
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE. THIS WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S WITH SOME COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. AS MOISTURE AND TEMPS INCREASE FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, LOW TEMPS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST. COASTAL AREAS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO MODERATE AROUND 5 DEGREES.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK
WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAA A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE COAST
AND INTO SE TX AND WESTERN LA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DEWPOINTS DROP SOMEWHAT INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS FARTHER INTO TEXAS. THIS WILL DECREASE LOW
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT FOR WED AND THU.
THERE IS A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ACROSS MODELS TODAY WITH AN ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE IT MIGHT BE A
LITTLE EARLY TO BREAK OUT THE GUMBO POT JUST YET, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT ALL SOUTH LA SMELLS LIKE ROUX BY NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS AND ONLY IN THE 50S AT THE COAST. WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECM
ALSO HAVE A FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPS AREN'T AS LOW.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. WHILE THE
FROPA MAY BRING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL, LOW RHS AND GUSTY
WINDS SATURDAY MAY PUSH THE AREA INTO RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY, HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
TIME WILL BE VFR. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO MONDAY. MIN RHS
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOMORROW
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD DROUGHT RELIEF
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LARGER CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS MAY ADVECT IN ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BY SATURDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...05
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