329
FXUS64 KLCH 101125
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A PROBABILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SLACK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MOVING
INLAND ALONG THE TX / LA COASTLINE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER PERIODS
OF GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. CHANCES DECREASE NORTH OF HWY
190 CONSIDERABLY. MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE QUICKLY
INITIATES CONVECTION MID MORNING BEFORE WANING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE LOW 90S AND COMBINED WITH THE ADDED HUMIDITY, CONDITIONS WILL
FEEL QUITE MUGGY.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR FROM THE PLAINS
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST. SEPARATION BETWEEN THE EASTERLY TRADES
OVER THE TROPICS AND THE ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN 48, WILL
PRODUCE A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
CHANCES OF STRAY SHOWER / STORM CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT, BUT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEY CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
BY WEDNESDAY COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE RIDGE AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO MID 90S NORTH OF I-10. DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD FURTHER TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 90S FOR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HEAT HEADLINES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DEPENDING HOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS EVOLVE INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM AROUND 14Z.
CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS WILL BE POOR WITH CHAOTIC AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
CONDITONS WILL BE VFR WITH HIGH OVERCAST SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. DAILY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUES AS A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH SKIRTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ACTIVITY IS FAVORED CLOSER TO SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. TUESDAY
ONWARD, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW THE OVERALL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE KBDI THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. THAT
SAID, WITH LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FROM MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS,
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE FURTHER DECREASING
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...14
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