187
FXUS64 KLCH 122354
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY INTO
TUESDAY.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR BRIEFLY TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES WHILE OFFERING ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DRY COLD FRONT.
-ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE TAIL END OF
THE BOUNDARY IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY, MOISTURE IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING, BUT MAINLY ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN SE TX AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY MOVE INLAND INTO SW
LA AND SE TX AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN SE TX AND SW LA WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ANTICIPATED NORTH AND EAST. WHILE SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE A GOOD DOWNPOUR, LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED, IF
ANY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES SHIFT DEEPER INTO TX. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WHILE RAIN CHANCES MOVE TO NEAR ZERO.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW TO NEAR 0,
HOWEVER A COOLER AND DRYER AIRMASS WILL SPILL IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS SE TX/SW LA,
BUT VFR CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS. ONGOING SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN KBPT AND KLCH AND DO NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS TO EITHER TERMINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
LIGHT STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THIS
SAME GENERAL AREA, BUT OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THERE
ALSO COULD BE SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS TOWARD EARLY TUE MORNING. AT THIS TIME, HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS PROBS ARE HIGHER FARTHER EAST ACROSS SE LA.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE TX/SW
LA TOMORROW, AND FOR THIS CYCLE HAVE INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT
BOTH KBPT AND KLCH. AWAY FROM THIS ACTIVITY, VFR WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL.
13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THAT SLOWLY RELAXES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SE TX AND SW LA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
RAIN CHANCES LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MUCH DRYER
AIRMASS FILTERING IN FOR SATURDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page