195
FXUS64 KLCH 301839
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
139 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
-AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR INCREASE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
-AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AND MEET UP WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO NORMS. A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR A DAILY INCREASE IN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND HEAD EAST WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE IMMEDIATE REGION. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONNECTION TO EAST
PAC TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE, FLOW
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INTO THE REGION TO
MEET UP WITH THE TROUGH.
AN ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER BY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2.3
AND 2.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE
CHARLES LINE. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO
VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES AND AT OR ABOVE THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE. THE
100H-50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE OVER 80 PERCENT, AND
WITH WARM CLOUD LAYERS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 15K FEET DEPICTING
GOOD WARM RAIN PROCESS, ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS,
THE QUESTION TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL WILL
DEPEND ON THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
WEAKER LIFT THAT MAY LIMIT THE STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY AND
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS TO BE RESPECTED. THERE IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND WITH 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNT TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
4) POTENTIAL OR BETWEEN A 15 AND 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
OUTLINED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY. AT THE VERY
LEAST, THERE IS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A WETTING RAIN
OF OVER 0.25 INCHES THAT WILL HELP WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD ON LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS WITH AREAS ALONG I-10 EXPERIENCING GUSTS UP TO 15KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND
6KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/86/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. OVER THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND STORMS WILL IMPACT COASTAL WATERS, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND
CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS
THE COAST. THIS FRONT MAY MOVE OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
HOT DAYS WITH JUST SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP VEGETATION
RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASE LIKELY IN KBDI NUMBERS
AND THE DROUGHT INDEX. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WILL HELP REDUCE FIRE DANGER AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY OCTOBER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...86
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