007
FXUS64 KLCH 100449
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED (20-70% POP) PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
A SLUG OF MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR A FEW (20% POP) SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
-TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY ON BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING UP
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INITIALIZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR
OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH POPS FALLING WITH
INCREASING LATITUDE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN. WHILE THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT DROUGHT BUSTING, EVERY LITTLE BIT HELPS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AIDING TO STALL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE NBM SUITE HAS INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SUNDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT AT
PRESENT THIS ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE PLUME
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL HELP
PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. WHILE THIS ISN'T EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE MATERIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, IT MAY OFFER THE NEXT REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS AS OUTLINED IN SPC'S DAY 7 OUTLOOK.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIGHT GROUND
FOG UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING, BUT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND WINDS GENERALLY OVER 5 KNOTS SHOULD MAKE THIS VERY
PATCHY AND SHORT LIVED AT BEST IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE BEGINNING AFTER 16Z.
THESE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS AEX. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. STORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AFTER 22Z AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GONE COMPLETELY BY 01Z. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING, BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-7 FEET THIS MORNING FALLING
TO BETWEEN 2-6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-
15 KNOTS AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SMALLER FUELS AVAILABLE FOR BURNING, BUT STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE 40-60% RANGE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH CHANCES DECREASING FURTHER
INLAND. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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