583  
FXUS64 KLCH 221739  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1239 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SCT/BKN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET  
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS WITH OVC MVFR CEILINGS AND SHRA EXPECTED AT MOST SITES BY  
23/12Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE  
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT DECREASES.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE  
GULF WATERS. LIKE YESTERDAY, ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL INLAND  
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MINOR TWEAKS ONLY  
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS.  
 
13  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUICK TO REINITIALIZE CONVECTION  
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE OBSERVED ON THE KLCH 00Z  
SOUNDING WHICH MEASURED A PWAT OF 2.23 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF THE  
INVERTED UPPER TROF APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT  
FOR THIS CONVECTION. A LOOK AT THE LATEST RADAR SCANS WOULD SEEM  
TO VALIDATE THIS FORECAST AS ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING  
ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  
THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE AND BEGIN TO  
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARLY MORNING. CONVECTION  
WILL BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON HEATING AS THE DAY  
PROGRESSES AND WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROF WASHES OUT. THIS  
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO WANE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE  
REINITIALIZING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LONG AWAITED  
COLD FRONT.  
 
THIS FRONT HAS BEEN REMARKABLY WELL FORECAST BY BOTH SHORT AND  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE GIVEN ITS UNSEASONABLE NATURE WITH MOST  
GUIDANCE TRENDING STRONGER (COOLER) AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. FROPA  
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING  
PRECIPITATION TO AN END AS IT DOES SO. IN IT'S WAKE, CAA WILL  
USHER IN SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WITH  
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60'S.  
MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID  
60'S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND UPPER 60'S ALONG THE I-10  
CORRIDOR. WHILE IT SEEMS LIKE A RELATIVELY MILD DROP, GIVEN THE  
RELATIVE UNIFORMITY OF MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION,  
THE FORECAST LOWS WOULD LIKELY TIE OR PERHAPS EVEN BREAK RECORD  
LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
 
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS  
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN A PATTERN MORE  
REMINISCENT OF MID NOVEMBER THAN MID JULY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FRIDAY  
WHICH WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ONCE  
AGAIN SPREADING A DEEP COLUMN OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
GULF SOUTH AND BRINGING OUR BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM SUMMER TO AN END.  
THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE RETURN OF DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
JONES  
 
MARINE...  
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY. AN UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL  
WATERS ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO  
MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS  
WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM THE EAST THURSDAY  
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TURNING  
ONSHORE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 73 84 64 85 / 60 50 10 0  
LCH 75 86 69 87 / 50 60 20 0  
LFT 74 84 69 86 / 50 70 20 0  
BPT 75 86 70 87 / 50 60 20 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...26  
 
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