746
FXUS64 KLCH 111825
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HIGHER
HEAT INDICES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, YIELDING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT IS ANALYZED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AT 500MB WITH OUR CWA LOCATED ALONG ITS WESTERN
FLANK. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S, TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE HAS BEGUN A DRYING TREND, WITH THE
18Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 1.74 INCHES COMPARED WITH 2.49
INCHES AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THUS FAR TODAY DEEPER CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
GIVEN THE DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY, BUT SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS
POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
RECENTLY FORMED OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP FOR SOME ELEVATED WIND GUSTS GIVEN
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG), MODELED
DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG, AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCE VALUES
AROUND 25-30 K. THIS WOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT THREAT
BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THE TYPICAL LOUISIANA/TEXAS HOT AND MUGGY
SUMMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING BY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE SNEAKING
IN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND
MOSTLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE US 190 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RESULTING IN
RISING HEIGHTS AND A DRYING TREND OVER OUR REGION. LREF MEAN PWAT
OVER OUR AREA FALLS TO AN INCH OR EVEN LESS BY FRIDAY, NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MINIMA. AT THE SAME TIME, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
500MB HEIGHTS REACHING 598-599 DAM OVER OUR REGION, NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL DAILY MAXIMA. THIS REGIME OF LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S REGION-WIDE. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOWER
DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOONS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES FROM REACHING MORE DANGEROUS LEVELS.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BRING
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA STARTING SUNDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS INHERENTLY VERY HIGH
AT THIS TIME RANGE.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A FEW POPUP SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY LOOKS LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION NEAR
KBPT, WILL HAVE VCSH AT THAT TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 11/20Z. AWAY
FROM THE CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12/10Z-13Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR INTO WEDNESDAY.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 5-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW WITH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. A BUILDING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN PUT AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON RH MINIMUM VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 40 PERCENT FOR OUR
INLAND COUNTIES/PARISHES BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT).
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...07
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