083
FXUS64 KLCH 141852
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
152 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES
THAT COULD POSE A FLOOD RISK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY ARE STILL SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO WARRANT
CAUTION FOR THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF, MAINTAINING PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE HAS KEPT
PWAT VALUES ELEVATED; HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED
AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING, AS BOTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND APPROACH OR
POSSIBLY EXCEED DAILY MAXIMUM CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. COMBINED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION, THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
AS A RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EACH DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOCUSING
SPECIFICALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK. ADDITIONALLY, A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OUTCOME WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES TODAY AND
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED.
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOMEWHAT LOWER OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, AMPLE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ALONG WITH THE WEAK LOW FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, ALTHOUGH
OVERALL COVERAGE MAY DECREASE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED BY NHC.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
CURRENT OUTLOOK INDICATES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, PRIMARILY DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REEMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING, HOWEVER WILL BE UNLIKELY TO PREVAIL AS
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY NEAR STORMS, BUT THE GREATER HAZARD
WILL BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED VIS RESULTING FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REST OF
MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4
FEET WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE, IN
TURN, TO 3 TO 5 FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WINDS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING
SOUTHERLY, BUT IT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY THROUGH MOST OF THAT WORK WEEK.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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