679
FXUS64 KLCH 150621
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
121 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. RED FLAG WATCH
ON FRIDAY; ANOTHER SATURDAY.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AGAIN TODAY.
- HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES AS
WELL AS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY.
- LOW WATER POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LATE-WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM
HAS ALLOWED GULF MOISTURE TO SEEP INLAND BENEATH A DEEPLY DRY
AIRMASS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERTOP THE REGION AND
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT HAS GIVEN THIS SFC LAYER THE CONDITIONS NEEDED
TO EFFICIENTLY COOL AND SO RADIATIONAL FOG IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. ALREADY SOME OF OUR OBS ARE SEEING PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THE COASTAL BREEZE HAS KEPT VISIBILITIES AT BAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I10 BUT AS WE MOVE TOWARDS EARLY MORNING AND WINDS DIMINISH TO
CALM, IT'S LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A SUDDEN ONSET OF AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA UNTIL 9 AM.
NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS FOR THURSDAY'S FORECAST... HIGH PRESSURE
DIMINISHING WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLIES OFF THE GULF BRINGING ABOUT
INCREASING SFC HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, LOW 90S. PERHAPS
A SHOWER MAY SQUEAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS AND IN THE MOIST LAYER. NOT EXPECTED BUT POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS WEST OF LA 171.
NOW FOR THE FUN PART OF THE FORECAST. THINGS GET KICKED OFF
THURSDAY WITH UPPER JET MAX STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. THIS JET FEATURE KICKS AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW SITTING
OVER NORTH TX INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ENHANCEMENT TO THE
POLAR JET THEN PULLS AN UPPER LOW OUT OF SOUTH CANADA. ULTIMATELY
THESE TWO FEATURES PHASING IS WHAT WILL CAUSE SUCH A SHARP FRONTAL
INTRUSION ON FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN CRASHES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL WINDS
FRIDAY AM WILL ESTABLISH A NORTH VECTOR AND BY 9 AM, INLAND
AREAS WILL ALREADY SEE WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY, REACHING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
BEFORE LUNCH.
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. PEAK SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BUT IT WON'T BE MUCH LOWER.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AND MAY COME AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING TO COVER THE PERIOD.
THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL USHER COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AND
MINIMUM RH VALUES 20 TO 35 CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
ELEVATED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY; ANOTHER
NEEDED SATURDAY. IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO BURN ANYTIME BEFORE OR
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WINDS WILL EASILY RE-LIGHT COALS. ABIDE BY
LOCAL BURN BANS AND IF YOU SEE A FIRE/SMOKE, REPORT IT TO LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 70S SATURDAY. EXPECT THE 50S BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND 40S SUNDAY MORNING.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AREAS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOP. WINDS IN
COASTAL AREAS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAUSING FOG TO
REMAIN MORE ON THE GROUND THAN WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. HOWEVER, AS
WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM PRIOR TO SUNRISE, AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
SOCK IN FOR LOUISIANA TERMINALS.
WINDS INCREASE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH SUNRISE. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY WITH A PREVAILING BREEZE 8 TO 12
KNOTS. A FEW ROGUE GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO LATE THURSDAY. A CRASHING
COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. ITS
INFLUENCE WILL TURN COASTAL WINDS TO THE NORTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE,
BEFORE THE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE STARTING MID MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL OCCUR FROM
FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, GALE-FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FREQUENT GUSTS 40 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEAS GROWING
TO 4 TO 11 FEET THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
LOW WATER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SABINE PASS FRIDAY AT LOW
TIDE TIME. ALL OTHER WATERWAYS APPEAR TO BE ORIENTED AS TO NOT SEE
MASS PUSHOUT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ESTABLISH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. RH
MINIMUMS WILL RANGE 30 TO 50 PERCENT DURING AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
20 FT WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN CRASHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
BRINGING ABOUT A ROUGHLY 48 HOUR PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SUNRISE WILL SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN SPEEDS
FROM 7 AM FRIDAY WITH INTERIOR REGIONS SEEING 15 MPH SUSTAINED BY
9 AM AND COASTAL AREAS BY ROUGHLY 12PM. WINDS PEAK AND WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED FROM FRIDAY MID DAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT RH MINIMUMS 25 TO 35
PERCENT FRIDAY AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED AND HIGH
WINDS. ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-141>143-152>154-241>243-253-254.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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