372
FXUS64 KLCH 201207
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING THIS EVENING. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL
USHER IN A RAPID RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
NEARSHORE MARINE FOG DEVELOPMENT INCREASING BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON,
WITH FOG DEVELOPING AND/OR SPREADING INLAND AFTER SUNSET. HAVE
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE BOTH MARINE AND LAND ZONES GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES, AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE MORE
ROBUST WORDING WILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND REALLY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, WITH BOTH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND, SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS IT FINDS ITSELF EMBEDDED WITHIN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH POOLED MSTR AND
LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE COAST BY SUN EVENING.
SMALL TO MID RANGE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MON AS THE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY WASHES OUT. THE RISK OF MARINE/INLAND FOG WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
INLAND FOG POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL MODERATE A
BIT AFTER THE FRONT WASHES OUT, WITH THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
PATTERN EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK, IT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE TO THINK THAT MARINE/INLAND FOG COULD BECOME
REPETITIVE AND/OR PERSISTENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, REACHING PEAK
STRENGTH ON WED BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY FRI. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES AT BAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT SEVERAL MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS
WITH HIGHS STEADILY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND NEARLY CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ONGOING OVER THE REGION. IT'S CLEAR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR VERY
ISOLATED PATCHES OF THIN GROUND FOG, AS SEEN AT LCH, AND OVER
MARINE WATERS WHERE CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET ARE STREAMING TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE.
CLOUDS STREAMING INLAND DENOTE THE WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH, AND
WITH PORTIONS OF IT MOVING INLAND PRIOR TO SUNRISE. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WARM TEMPS AND INCREASING SURFACE CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED. ALSO TO BE EXPECTED ARE ELEVATED DAYTIME WINDS BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEPARTING HIGH TO THE EAST.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL BE BREEZY, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY.
WINDS DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN AND WILL SETTLE NEAR CALM. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IT
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF DENSE FOG WILL BE AREA-WIDE OR MORE
CONTAINED TO COASTAL TERMINALS DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCE. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION, EVEN IF ITS PATCHY INLAND, FOG TO 1/2SM
WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 08Z.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 75 60 74 59 / 0 20 60 30
LCH 74 63 76 63 / 0 10 60 30
LFT 74 63 79 62 / 0 0 70 30
BPT 77 63 79 62 / 0 10 30 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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