281
FXUS64 KLCH 281115
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED EARLY THIS
WEEK CAUSING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING MID THIS WEEK AS
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
ALOFT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED OVER THE TX/MX BORDER.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE
DRIER AIR THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS MEANDERING ABOUT THE REGION, WHILE A BROADER
RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE BROADER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. AS THE DRIER LAYER GRADUALLY
MOISTENS, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GOING INTO MIDWEEK, A CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE CA
BAY AREA WILL DESCEND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, BRINGING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH IT. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHOWN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, TIMING REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THIS WILL
PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WPC HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SETX COUNTIES AND BORDERING SWLA
PARISHES ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER, THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN
INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN, BUT IT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING, HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPRESS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALLOWING ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU TO DEVELOP WITH THESE
DISSIPATING AFTER 01Z
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING
MID TO LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE
LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID WEEK AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page