487
FXUS64 KLCH 111752
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
- WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF AND THE LIKELY LACK OF SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO END PART OF THE WEEK, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT
AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO THE NW GULF, JUST OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX,
WHILE RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. AREA RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TX AND W LA, WHILE SOME STRATIFORM
RAIN STILL LINGERS ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS CONVECTION, BUT ASSUMING THAT THE CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS CONVECTION LOOKING TO BE RATHER SLOW MOVING
THANKS TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH,
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
WPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING JUST A BIT
NORTH FROM THERE. IN ADDITION, WE DO STILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ACADIANA HOWEVER, THAT HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK
SLIGHTLY AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK FACTOR
TODAY.
OVERNIGHT, THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVING WAY TO A DRY MID-WEEK. TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR A NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, WEST CONUS
RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
SAME TIME PERIOD, ALLOWING A DRY MAINLY NW FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE SE US. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, A DRY PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR A BIT
LONGER, WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY/MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A LIGHT NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD,
FOLLOWED BY A A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY'S RAINFALL COMES TO AN
END.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A RATHER HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 40-60% RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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