990
FXUS64 KLCH 050509
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1209 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT, SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE WILL ALL
COMBINE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WITH NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THE MAIN CONCERN.
- EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS, WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES INLAND
LOWERING THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AS A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS AND HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INTO THE WEEKEND, LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BRING IN RICH GULF AIR.
MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE A CONNECTION WITH TROPICAL
EAST-PAC MOISTURE. SO, A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. DAILY PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.90 INCHES AND A MAJORITY OF THE TIME OVER 2
INCHES, WHILE THE 100H-50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE OVER 70 PERCENT, TO GO ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYERS OVER 12K
FEET. THEREFORE, A TROPICAL LIKE FEEL TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT VERY LITTLE INHIBITION
AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING TO GET ACTIVITY GOING. ALSO, AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST, WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING AN ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE.
TODAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG AN OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVE
TOWARD AND INLAND THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST BY TONIGHT. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS LOW/WAVE MAY KEEP THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH WEST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FROM BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACCORDING TO THE CAMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A
DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW FOR AN
ENHANCED ATCHAFALAYA BASIN BOUNDARY. ALSO, GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SO THAT
AREA ALSO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES.
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN STREAM AND
SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A BETTER THAN NORMAL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY MESOSCALE COLLISIONS WILL
BRING ABOUT QUICK INTENSITY UPTICKS AND POTENTIAL RAIN BURSTS, ALONG
WITH ALLOWING SOME TRAINING. THEREFORE, SOME HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN A SHORT PERIOD MAY OCCUR, AND IF THESE AMOUNTS FALL OVER URBAN
DRAINAGE AREAS, SOME STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
THE WEAKNESS MOVES AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FORMING. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREFORE,
MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE
LOWERING IN SHOWER AREAL COVERAGE, HEAT WILL INCREASE WITH HIGHS UP
IN THE LOWER 90S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND
100 DEGREES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS. SOME SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE KBPT AREA THROUGH ABOUT 05/10Z.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IS NOTED WITH
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN ATCHAFALAYA CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY, THEREFORE
WILL HAVE A PROB30 FROM 05/19-24Z FOR KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAVE MOVES TOWARD AND INLAND THE LOUISIANA COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT WILL BRING
WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ452-455-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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