856
FXUS64 KLCH 151931
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
231 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW SYNOPSIS, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A CANADIAN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING
WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) TO MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS DURING THAT TIME FRAME FOR THE AREA.
- PERIODIC GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH DRY FUELS
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AS THIS IS BEYOND THE
AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH THAT STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE 15/18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWS A
DECENT CAP AROUND 85H AND NOT A LOT OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT UNDER
1 INCH.
STRONG MID LEVEL JET OF 70 TO 90 KNOTS IS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES, THIS WILL HELP TO SHARPEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT OF CANADIAN ORIGIN INTO
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN A WARM
GULF AIR MASS HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH GOOD BULK
SHEAR AS THE MID LEVEL JET OVERLAPS IT. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE CAN POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CAN FRONTAL FORCING BREAK
THE CAP.
AT THIS POINT PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1.25
INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES JUST ABOVE 60 PERCENT. WITH ADEQUATE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND PROGGED STRONG FRONTAL FORCING, EXPECT BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TO
CONGEAL INTO A FAST MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 6 PM AND
EXITING AROUND 2 AM, GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS.
WITH MUCAPE VALUES PROGGED BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG, 0-3KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KNOTS, AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS,
ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN RISK LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH 0-1 HELICITY PROGGED
TO BE ABOVE 150 M2S2 FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190, A FEW QUICK
SPIN UP TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS.
DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, AND PWAT BELOW
90TH PERCENTILE LEVEL, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES,
WITH THE REASONABLY HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
TO THE GULF COAST WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
THE BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN A VERY DRY AND COOL CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. WITH THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN LESS
THAN 50 PERCENT AND SOME LOCATIONS STILL IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
FUELS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY DRY TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO PRODUCE AN
INCREASE FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA.
THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND THE EXPECTED
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERALL
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COLDER, AND CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEAR
THE MEAN OF THE NBM. THEREFORE, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS, WITH IT LOOKING LIKE A LIGHT FREEZE,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RIGHT
NOW PROBS SHOW ROUGHLY A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190
CORRIDOR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND A 20 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE BETWEEN I-10 AND HIGHWAY 190. WITH THE REGION BEYOND
THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE AND MANY ALREADY PLANTING GARDENS A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS. THE WATCH MAY BE
EXPANDED FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND UPGRADED TO A
WARNING BY TOMORROW.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST US NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OFF TO THE EAST, WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS ALLOWING FOR VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING BELOW THE CAP WITH MVFR CEILINGS.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 16/00Z AND
16/04Z. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STORMS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, AFTER 16/04Z-08Z, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 KNOTS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE
ON MONDAY WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN AND VFR CONDITIONS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WITH A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING OVER WARMER
GULF WATERS, STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40
KTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH BUILDING
AND ROUGH SEAS. THE ELEVATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BE RELAXING AND
BECOMING ONSHORE BY MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN BETWEEN 20 AND 50 PERCENT. STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 38 52 28 58 / 90 10 0 0
LCH 42 55 35 59 / 80 0 0 0
LFT 44 54 33 57 / 80 0 0 0
BPT 42 57 35 61 / 50 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LAZ027>033.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ260.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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