527
FXUS64 KLCH 151105
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ACADIANA FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100F AND
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 108 TO 111F RANGE.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-111F RANGE.
- NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MY CLOCK NOW READS 30 PAST THE HOUR SO WE'LL GO ON AHEAD AND GET
THIS CONVERSATION ROLLING. ANOTHER ROTATION OF THIS GREAT BIG
PLANET HAS COME AND GONE AND IT WAS A HOT ONE! THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS MOVED ONSHORE WHICH RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
INLAND; NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WAS
EXPECTED TO EXACERBATE HEAT INDICES TO SOME DEGREE, HOWEVER MIXING
AND HEIGHT RISES OVERTOOK THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HIS ONLY
TOPPED OUT AROUND 106 FOR SOME SPOTS. EVEN SO, IT STILL FELT
OPPRESSIVELY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES AND EXPANDS OVERHEAD TO ECLIPSE THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEAST US. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAKING FOR HUMID MORNINGS. AFTER SUNRISE, DIURNAL PROCESSES
KICK IN AND CONTINENTAL AIR SITTING OVERTOP THE SFC MOISTURE
LAYER WILL MIX DOWN AS TEMPERATURES RISE. COMBINE THIS PROCESS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND YOU GET
SUFFOCATINGLY HUMID MORNINGS THAT RAPIDLY GET HOTTER AND DRIER AS
THE DAY MOVES ALONG. HEAT STRESS WILL SET IN QUICKLY AS WELL FOR
THOSE NOT ACCUSTOMED TO OUTDOOR TEMPERATURE AND AIRMASS CHANGES.
THOSE WHO ARE ACCLIMATED TO THESE TEMPERATURES MUST BE CAREFUL AS
WELL AS WE ACCUMULATE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF THIS EXTREME HEAT WAVE.
WITH EACH DAY, THE RISK WILL RISE COMING TO A CULMINATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL LOUISIANA IS LOOKING AT POSSIBLY 4 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF HIGH TEMPS 100 TO 101F. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE 96 TO
98F FOR THIS PERIOD.
NO RELIEF FROM RAINFALL IS IN THE CARDS OVER THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA ON SATURDAY FOR
INDICES 108 TO 110F POSSIBLE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME VARIATION OF HEAT
RELATED PRODUCTS EACH DAY AS WE TACKLE MESSAGING THE WORST OF
THIS HEAT WAVE. THE HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED CAN INDEED OVERCOMPENSATE
FOR THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO DRY AIR MIXING. SO WHILE IT
FEELS LIKE A BLAST FURNACE OUTSIDE, DON'T GET CAUGHT UP WITH "BUT
IT'S A DRY HEAT" MENTALITY. IT'S A HEAT WE ARE NOT ACCUSTOMED TO
IN LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE BODY WILL ABSOLUTELY FEEL THE
DIFFERENCE.
KEEP AN EYE ON OTHERS, HYDRATE!!!!!, DON'T WALK YOUR DOGS ON
EXPOSED PAVEMENT DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS, STICK TO THE SHADE OR
AVOID OUTDOOR EXPOSURE WHEN POSSIBLE. LOOK TO YOUR LOCAL
MUNICIPALITIES FOR LOCAL HEAT ASSISTANCE.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SW/SSW AROUND 5-10 KTS
THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM AFTER SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FETCH IN PLACE OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BELOW 10 KNOTS, WHICH ALSO KEEPS SEAS LOW.
A GREATER HIGH PRESSURE DOME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE START OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY
HOT AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DRIVE
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH RH MINIMUMS IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND DRY WILL FURTHER
EXACERBATE THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. KBDI WILL RANGE 550-720,
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...17
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