466
FXUS64 KLCH 131056
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER.
- AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INCREASING WITH
THE DAILY HEAT RISK RISING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEARING EXTREME LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHEN VIEWING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL-ANALYZED 500 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE US, IT'S EASY TO SEE THE ACTION IS HAPPENING WELL AWAY
FROM THE NORTH GULF REGION. TO THE WEST, UPPER TROF EXTENDS DOWN
THE SPINE OF CALIFORNIA, HALTED IN PLACE BY A DENSE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL FROM THE SOUTH / GULF
REGION.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, THIS PRESSURE DOME HAS INCREASED IN
HEIGHT, WITH THIS HEIGHT TO PERSIST. THUS, THE HOT AND (MOSTLY)
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED TODAY WITH A MORE-
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. OUTSIDE OF
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, THERE IS THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD MORESO THURSDAY.
OFF THE SFC, PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL MIX VERY DRY TEXAS
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, DRIVING DOWN PWATS AND RH VALUES
THURSDAY. EVEN WITH THE ELEVATING HEAT, THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL HELP KEEP DAYTIME HEAT INDICES IN CHECK AND JUST BELOW
CRITERIA. NO HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY, AN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO MEXICO WILL SEND A PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE TEXAS COASTLINE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL WASH INTO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
REGION TO SOUTHEAST LA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY, EXTENDING
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE PLUME ON ITS
TRAVELS. HOWEVER, DON'T ANTICIPATE A LOVELY RAINY MORNING TO BREAK
THIS HEAT DOME! THE ALREADY-STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY WITH A VERY NOTABLE RISE IN HEIGHTS
EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE SEUS IN A SHORT TIME.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO JUMP BACK TO ~2.05 INCHES ON FRIDAY FROM
THE FCST LOW OF ~1.35 INCHES THURSDAY. (FOR CONTEXT, THIS JUMP OF
PWAT WILL TAKE US FROM ROUGHLY THE 12TH PERCENTILE TO THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. THAT'S A VERY IMPRESSIVE AIRMASS OVERHAUL FROM ONE DAY
TO THE NEXT.) TYPICALLY THIS WOULD BRING A DAY OF AT LEAST CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERY CONVECTION, BUT THE RAPID INCREASE PRESSURE WILL
HALT ANY INLAND PENETRATION OF RAINFALL FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COULD BENEFIT FROM A FEW EXTRA
CLOUDS COMPARED TO EVERYWHERE ELSE WHICH MAY KEEP THEIR TEMPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER. BUT ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS CAN
BE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WILL BE VERY
LIKELY, AND THE INFLUX OF HUMIDITY MAY BRING A NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES TO END THE WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND, THE UPPER RIDGE LOOMS AND CONTROLS. HOT
CONTINENTAL AIR MIXES BACK INTO THE COLUMN, WITH THE "OPENING A
PREHEATED OVEN IN YOUR FACE" EXPERIENCE IN FULL EFFECT. ALL RAIN
CHANCES SHUT OFF AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL HELP DEFLECT
THE SEARING SUN. HEAT INDICES EACH DAY SHOULD BE MIXED DOWN INTO
THE 103 TO 108 RANGE EACH DAY; BORDERLINE FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT
WELL WITHIN A HEAT WAVE WHICH WILL BE IMPACTFUL TO THOSE NOT
ACCUSTOMED TO THESE TEMPS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
TAFS WILL BE VFR THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FETCH IN PLACE OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BELOW 10 KNOTS, WHICH ALSO KEEPS SEAS LOW.
A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP THE TEXAS COASTLINE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO WESTERN WATERS PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY, DISSIPATING ANY
LINGERING RAINFALL QUICKLY INTO THE MORNING. NO RAIN CHANCES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
HOT, DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OFF OF TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION,
FURTHER KNOCKING DOWN DAYTIME RH VALUES ON THURSDAY. A RANGE OF 40
TO 50 PERCENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND
AT THE SURFACE. EARLY FRIDAY, A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FROM THE SOUTH.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST US IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY. THUS, EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN DAYTIME RH VALUES SLIGHTLY, BUT NO RAINFALL OR REPRIEVE IS
ANTICIPATED.
VERY HOT AND UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME LOCKS IN PLACE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...14
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