171
FXUS64 KLCH 101823
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT WHILE COMBINING TO LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
- ONSHORE FLOW AND RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO FACILITATE A WARMER
PATTERN THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80°F POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE TO EARLY WED,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE VALENTINES DAY / MARDI GRAS PARADE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF FACILITATING MODEST ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THESE WATERS WILL OFFER CHANCES OF DENSE FOG
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LATEST GUIDANCES SUGGESTS AREAS OF FOG MAY
TEMPO BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS WHICH PRECLUDES ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENT INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, ONE
MAY BE ISSUED THIS EVENING- LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN LA PARISHES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE KEEPING ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
SHORT RANGE. HOWEVER, SMALL WEAKNESS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FURTHER NORTH WITH A PASSING SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFFER LOW
END CHANCES TOMORROW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF SPRINKLES
OF LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ARE NOT SUSPECT TO WET THE GROUND
MUCH WITH STABLE LOW-MID LEVEL PROFILE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO RANGE INTO THE MID 70S FOR HIGHS THROUGH
THURSDAY.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS FORWARD ACCELERATION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY WHILE A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE CELL DEVELOPS NEAR THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. WHILE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS
WILL WORK CONSTRUCTIVELY TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW. INCREASING
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE NOTABLY, SATURDAY
MORNING.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGHOUT SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WHILE THERE IS NO OUTLINED SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME, THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED MORE INSTABILITY INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THIS LAYER WOULD ONLY BE MARGINALLY CONVECTIVE,
INDICATING WHILE THUNDER AND LIGHTING ARE PROBABLE, DEEPLY
CONVECTIVE STORM CELLS ARE NOT. THAT BEING SAID, CURRENT FORECAST
HAS WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT OUTDOOR FESTIVITIES.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NW.
STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 70°F BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE WINDS REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE 3RD WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
ACADIANA TERMINALS MAY TEMPO MVFR WITH SCT - BKN CUMULUS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, BECOMING LIGHT/CALM AFTER TWILIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY, THOUGH AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE PATCHY OR
TRANSITIONS TO LOW VERTICAL VISIBILITY OR LIFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MID LEVEL BKN/OVC SKIES WILL LIKELY STAY THROUGH WEDS
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN, WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE SETTLED WITH SPATIAL FAVORITISM OR
DURATION. HOWEVER, TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD THE ACADIANA REGION AND
VERMILION BAY FOR TONIGHT'S HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. RADIATIONAL FOG
LOOKING LESS LIKELY TONIGHT, HOWEVER, ADVECTION COMPONENTS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP AREAS OF DENSE FOG- MAINLY FAVORING LAKE,
BAYS, AND SHIP CHANNELS. OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL INCREASE
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY, WARM, AND HUMID UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OFFERING FAVORABLE CHANCES
OF A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL (ABOVE 0.25 INCH) ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 59 77 50 74 / 10 20 10 10
LCH 59 76 56 74 / 10 10 10 10
LFT 59 77 57 74 / 10 20 10 10
BPT 59 77 57 75 / 10 20 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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