181
FXUS64 KLCH 181810
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
110 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- CATASTROPHIC FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS AVOYELLES PARISH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FRIDAY.
- THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA BUT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF AVOYELLES PARISH AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT TRAINING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR. OBSERVATIONS SO FAR INDICATE SOME AREAS MAY HAVE SEEN 25
INCHES OR MORE AND CAMS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. AVERAGE
RETURN INTERVAL PRODUCT INDICATES THE AVOYELLES FLOODING IS WELL
OVER A 200 YEAR EVENT.
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN AN EXTREMELY MOIST LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BIT OF TRAINING IS
BEGINNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RAPIDES PARISH AND
THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ELSEWHERE THE OVERALL RISK OF
FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
THE I-10 PARISHES TO THE COAST. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS BEING
FELT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE NOW DEVOLVED
TROUGH OF ARTHUR. EXPECT THESE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE HAVE PUSHED HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110
RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
AS THE MID LEVEL REMNANTS OF ARTHUR PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. THIS WILL AGAIN DRIVE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 RANGE AND POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THUS A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH MAY KEEP MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING EARLY IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN
AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS (AVOYELLES PARISH) WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FATHER'S DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY, BUT LIFT
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MAX
HEAT INDICES AGAIN FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 105-
110 RANGE.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING TOWARD THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY COME TO AN END AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A
LIGHT HAZE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN THE 5-7SM RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-13Z
FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS AT AEX. VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THE LIGHT HAZE MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN IDEAL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING AS GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3-7 FEET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH STEADY ONSHORE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
FALLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A RESULT OF THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
VERY HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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