691
FXUS64 KLCH 230519
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 20-35% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST CANADA EXTENDS SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT, PROVIDING ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, RIDGING EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW ONGOING OVERHEAD BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN AND A PWAT OF 0.77" WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE
ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. WITH THE SAME GENERAL SET UP AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS, NO SURPRISE WE WILL SEE TEMPS AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER SOUTH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
FROM SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. STILL, NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED DUE TO LACK OF ANY DECENT,
LONG STANDING ONSHORE FLOW. ALOFT, THE ELONGATED RIDGE JUST TO
OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A A ROBUST UPPER
LOW MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND GIVES IT A PUSH. TOMORROW
THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVERHEAD, WHERE IT WILL THEN LINGER
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE TRAILING LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE ROCKIES. BY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
BROADEN OUT, ALLOWING THE FLOW OVERHEAD TO TRANSITIONS TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGES ON THE HORIZON AND THE LACK OF ANY GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN, THE ONGOING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WHILE
THIS DOES MEAN RATHER COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS, IT ALSO
BRINGS WORSENING DROUGHT CONCERNS AREA-WIDE WITH A LARGE PORTION
OF OUR LA PARISHES AND A COUPLE OF OUR TX COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN A
BURN BAN. IN ADDITION A D3 DROUGHT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR LA PARISHES. UNFORTUNATELY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL COME BEYOND OF THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AND WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN SUCH A RAINFALL DEFICIT IT WILL TAKE
MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BRING ANY RELIEF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO DEVIATIONS FROM VFR ARE ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD TIGHTENS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ELONGATED PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO CLIMB TO 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
FROM 4-9 FEET FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX BEGINNING TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE COMBINATION OF WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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