146
FXUS64 KLCH 061821
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
121 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN.
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE HELPING TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 50H HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH DOWN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. GOES-PWAT AND
LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOW ADEQUATE MOISTURE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. RADAR
HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST BEING
REACHED AND A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW UP TO 10K FEET IS KEEPING THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AT THE COAST AND FROM MOVING INLAND.
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
AGAIN, SOME FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO
WATCH COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST, AND
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG IT GETS, MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE EVENING AND TOWARD MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGING AROUND.
A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DAILY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, AND BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
OF SPC DAILY CLIMO. MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 100H-
50H RANGING FROM 60 TO 70 PERCENT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR DAILY MAINLY DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DISSIPATES ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO MOVE IN WITH PWAT DROPPING BELOW 2
INCHES AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 60 PERCENT. THEREFORE,
FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME
FRAME.
NEXT WEEKEND, EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER WEAKNESS DEVELOPING ALOFT. A SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF, WILL INCREASE MOISTURE VALUES WITH
PWAT PROGGED BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER 70 PERCENT. THEREFORE, A DECENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL AND
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED.
AS FOR THE HEAT, TYPICAL SUMMERTIME VALUES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAX
APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 FOR PERIODS AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE HEAT RISK IS PROGGED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RANGE, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO
THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING
AND HYDRATION.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06/20Z AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINES WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO INITIATE CONVECTION. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS EARLIER, SO WILL JUST HAVE VCTS
AT THE TERMINALS.
WILL BE WATCHING AFTER 07/00Z TO SEE IF A COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND
REACH THE KAEX TERMINAL BEFORE WEAKENING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET WITH REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
SEEING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG THAT HAS THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING A MORE
PREDOMINATE LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MOISTENING AIRMASS AND
A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
DECENT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WITH BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS, NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page