328
FXUS64 KLCH 051852
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF 50H HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BREAKS DOWN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE
OF A TROUGH AND WEAKNESS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WITH SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 05/18Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH INDICATES AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE
OVER 4000 J/KG, MLCAPE OVER 2500 J/KG, AND THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE A
DECENT OVER 800 J/KG. PWAT BELOW THE 75TH PERCENTILE, HOWEVER STILL
A RESPECTABLE 1.87 INCHES. MEAN WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH STORM MOTIONS
LIKELY TO BE FROM 290 DEGREES AROUND 6 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE LOW 90S.
THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT. MAIN THING WILL BE TO WATCH
TO SEE IF ACTIVITY MOVING FROM THE NORTH COLLIDES WITH ANY SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 4 PM. CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DEPICTED IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, A RATHER MOIST AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DAILY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, AND NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF SPC DAILY CLIMO.
MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 100H-50H RANGING FROM 60
TO 70 PERCENT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY MAINLY
DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST BRIEFLY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS TO MOVE IN WITH PWAT DROPPING BELOW 2 INCHES AND MEAN
LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 60 PERCENT. THEREFORE, FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
NEXT WEEKEND, EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ANOTHER WEAKNESS DEVELOPING THAT WILL IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN.
AS FOR THE HEAT, EXPECTED EXTRA CONVECTION, CLOUDS, AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND
105 FOR PERIODS AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY
IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) RANGE, WHICH MEANS AFFECTS MAY
OCCUR TO THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
COOLING AND HYDRATION.
WITH LESS CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
HEAT WITH HIGHER DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES. MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE IN THE 105 TO 109 RANGE WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING HEAT RISK AT A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT RISK,
WHICH MEANS THE HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS
WELL AS HEALTH SYSTEM AND INDUSTRIES.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING SEEMS TO BE AROUND 05/20Z, SO WILL START THE
MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TERMINALS AT THAT POINT, WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR KLCH/KLFT/KARA BETWEEN 05/21Z AND 06/01Z WITH A PROB30 FOR KAEX
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY 04/02Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG THAT HAS THE
CHANCE TO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNRISE.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A MOISTENING AIRMASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FEWER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60 PERCENT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page