182
FXUS64 KLCH 140523
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A PLUME OF DEEP MSTR ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE, WITH PWATS OF 2+ INCHES ACROSS
THE ROUGHLY THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. ALOFT, UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD,
WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION, POSSIBLY DENSE, ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LA. WIDESPREAD FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LAST NIGHT.
A CONSENSUS BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE A LITTLER FARTHER WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE SFC HIGH EXPANDS WEST AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATION FOG FORMATION WEST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF HOW FAR WEST IS A SWATH OF DENSE CIRRUS
EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH ACROSS VERMILION
PARISH. RAP GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS CIRRUS BEING SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
IN THIS AREA AND IN EFFECT SET A WESTERN BOUNDARY. THAT'S NOT TO SAY
THAT REDUCED VISIBILITY IS IMPOSSIBLE AS KARA, ON THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD, HAS ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL LA MOST LIKELY TO SEE DENSE FOG.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SFC RIDGE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND WESTWARD,
SHUNTING THAT DEEP MSTR PLUME OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS A SLOW TREK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DRIER AIRMASS AND
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AREAWIDE
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ON THE FLIP SIDE, COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT, AND BY COOLER, I MEAN STILL ABOVE NORMAL,
JUST NOT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE
NUDGED FURTHER TO THE EAST ON THU BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WHICH WILL RESULT SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS, BUT STILL
AROUND 90 AREAWIDE.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI, A MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL
DIG INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS, PUSHING A DRY CDFNT THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRI. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR IS PROGGED TO LAG THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
RH VALUES FROM BOTTOMING OUT AND HELP MODERATE THE FIRE DANGER.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WITH ONGOING CAA FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S AMID THE NOW ENTRENCHED
COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS, FIRE DANGER WILL REACH ITS PEAK GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT DROUGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COOLEST (COLDEST?) TEMPERATURES OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND
FALLING TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ALL GOOD
THINGS MUST COME TO AN END, HOWEVER, AND A WARMING TREND WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
GENERALLY PRESERVED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS VFR
PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ASIDE FROM SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL LA. ADDED A TEMPO MVFR TO KAEX AND ADJUSTED THE KARA
FORECAST TO SHOW PREVAILING MVFR AT THE OUTSET WITH A DROP TO IFR
EARLY WED MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME DENSE
CIRRUS POISED SPREAD OVER KARA, WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY IMPROVE THE
MVFR VSBY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TONIGHT, WITH
MORE MODEST EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS. THESE WINDS WILL
EASE SATURDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE
NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
NO BIG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT
AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. THAT WILL CHANGE THIS WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, AS THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ045-055-153-154-253-254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...13
AVIATION...13
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