863
FXUS64 KLCH 252011
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
311 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
-CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN A WARM, TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING RECORDS IN
SOME SPOTS.
-A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY.
- A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE,
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN AREA OF HIGH OFF
TO OUR EAST. ALOFT, RIDGING CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
AZ/NM WILL MIGRATE AND EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEX/WTX,
MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED “EARLY SUMMERISH” REGIME TEMPERATURE WISE WITH LITTLE TO
NO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND NIGHTLY ROUNDS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE ON THE TOPIC OF FOG, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CENLA DOWN TO THE COAST AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE SIGNAL FOR FOG IS GREATEST IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS, DENSE FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE CWA
WIDE. THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11PM THIS EVENING TO
10AM THURSDAY MORNING.
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY), A MORE
“ROBUST” COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED AND FLATTENS. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY; HOWEVER, IT WILL
USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS ON SATURDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME REESTABLISH BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
AND MOISTURE TO REBOUND HEADING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL BE OVER TX/THE WESTERN GULF, WITH IT SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER, AND WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN; HOWEVER, THEY WILL FALL THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT OF FOG AND LOW CIGS.
THEY WILL IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TURNING WINDS OFFSHORE AND INCREASING
THEM TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. THE ELEVATED OFFSHORE
FLOW IN ADDITION TO BEING A FEW DAYS BEFORE A FULL MOON COULD LEAD
TO LOW WATER CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF GROUND FOG DEVELOPING EACH
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION ON BREEZY NORTH WINDS SATURDAY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
DROP AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THE 25-35% RANGE WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL
TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE. A WARM, HUMID PATTERN BECOMES REESTABLISHED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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