179
FXUS64 KLCH 151142
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD POSE A FLOOD
RISK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK MAY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN LA
THIS MORNING. A VERY SOUPY AIR MASS IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR DAILY RECORD HIGHS ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND INTO MUCH OF LA.
THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HIGH RAIN RATES WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS
RECEIVING BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE PAST 18ISH HOURS, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
A VERY SMALL LULL IN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING MID WEEK, HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING SE TX OR
SW LA IF IT MANAGES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE, BUT REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, A SLUG OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED AND DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND THIS MAY DRIVE TIDES AROUND 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS WEEKEND ANOTHER FRONT MAY DRIFT INTO THE REGION KEEPING THE
WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. NO CHANCE OF REAL COOLING THOUGH,
THAT IS STILL MONTHS AWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE IS PROFIDING THE FUEL AND THE BOUNDARY THE FOCUS
FOR ACTIVITY. EXPECT NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...11
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