940
FXUS64 KLCH 310540
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AL97 MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST ON MONDAY AND INLAND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
- REGARDLESS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES.
- WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW
AT THIS TIME.
- A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS AND HIGH MOISTURE KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES ARE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97 THAT IS A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST MEANDERING TO THE WEST, AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
OZARKS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT IS MOVING TO THE EAST.
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS HAD SOME CONVECTIVE BLOW-UPS THIS
EVENING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER THAT MAY BE TRYING TO
PUSH THE CENTER A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT OVER LOUISIANA IS KEEPING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE THAT
IS HELPING TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAS SEEN ON
THE 31/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH WITH A PWAT AT 1.5 INCHES
WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BEGINNING AT 70H COMPARED TO A PWAT
OVER 1.9 INCHES AT KLIX TO THE EAST.
CONSENSUS OF THE USUAL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE TO TAKE A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH IT NEARING THE COAST OF
UPPER OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL
BE A BATTLE WITH THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE NORTH THAT MAY KEEP
THE SYSTEM A LITTLE LOPSIDED WITH THE BEST CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SMALL IN SIZE, SO THAT MAY
GIVE IT A BETTER CHANCE TO STRENGTH, WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM HIGH END TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO LOW END TROPICAL
STORM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THIS MAY BE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS IS NOTED BY GUIDANCE SHOWING A
CIRCULAR ALMOST BOWLING BALL FEATURE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 90 PERCENT AND PWAT OVER
2.5 INCHES COMPACT AROUND THE CENTER. THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL,AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE THIS WILL BE OVER
LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECASTS TO BE 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
WITH THE HIGHEST REASONABLE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES. IF
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND OVER
URBAN AREAS, THEN FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, RAINFALL
FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH WITH
REASONABLY HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM 1/2 TO 2 INCHES.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, THERE IS ABOUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TIDES TO BE ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THAT MAY ALLOW
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE TIME ON TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT, THE WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND HOPEFULLY THIS CAN BE
FINE TUNED ON MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A BROAD WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL A SERIES OF INVERTED TROUGHS
TO MOVE ACROSS AND GOOD GULF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THEREFORE,
A DAILY CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR LEVELS.
MOISTURE FROM A GULF DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TERMINALS WITH
A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
INTO UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS ON TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE AL97 AS THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IT TO FORM INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR LOW END TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
IMPACTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
MONDAY AND INTO UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY. BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A PROBABILITY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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