696
FXUS64 KLCH 061123
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
- THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMERGES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE,
WHERE IT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MICHIGAN, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN
DRIER AIR THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10 IN TEXAS AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
HAVE NOT, AND WILL NOT, SEE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 50S, THOUGH A
SMALL DECREASE IS STILL EXPECTED. DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW,
DEWPOINTS OVERALL WILL ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE STUBBORN
MOIST AIRMASS AND THE FRONT REMAINING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
GULF.
GOING INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM, AND NHC CURRENTLY GIVES THE
DISTURBANCE AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 2
DAYS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, MAKING POTENTIAL IMPACTS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN
THE PERIOD AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BE ABOUT 8KT DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND BECOME VARIABLE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST ARA, LFT,
AND AEX COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD SO A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT LCH HOWEVER LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT SUFFICIENT RH VALUES BEING REACHED AND HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS HAS PREVENTED MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BN/56
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO BEYOND SCA CRITERIA
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. BY
FRIDAY, STRONG WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE AND WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, ALLOWING MINRH VALUES TO SLOWLY FALL. THE INCREASE IN DRY
AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY RETURNING THEREAFTER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...56
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