153
FXUS64 KLCH 181803
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
GREATER COVERAGE.
- PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN OVER MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH NO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY BENEATH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDANT COOL FRONT, WILL START MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH A MUCH MORE ROBUST ORGANIZATION INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, FALLING HEIGHTS COULD
EASILY ASSIST WITH THE GENERATION OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST BULK OF RAINFALL STILL
EXISTS IN THE LONGTERM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ARE ONGOING TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY BROKEN TEMPERATURE RECORDS, JUST WARM
AND MUGGY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE SURFACE LOW BRINGING ON THIS PERIOD OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER WAVE APPEARS
TO EJECT VERY SWIFTLY, WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING LEFT BEHIND WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING PROGRESSION
FROM WEST TO EAST, AND COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE, THERE COULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN DEEP SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THE FRONT SLOWLY LAYS OVER INTO THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE INTO
SATURDAY WITH LINGERING RAINFALL OCCURRING ALONG ITS AXIS. BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US. THE RETURN FLOW GENERATED WILL LIFT THE WARM SECTOR
NORTH AGAIN WITH LOW END RAINFALL CHANCES IN ACCOMPANIMENT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
11
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLIES WILL
PREVAIL IN THE NEXT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN A MOIST AND CALM AIRMASS. BEST
PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG ARE WITHIN LOUISIANA TERMINALS.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHING
AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING ABOUT
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VARIABLE PRESSURE FIELDS AND ONSHORE WINDS
AT A BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FLOW.
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGING ABOUT STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
PERSISTENT FORECAST WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL SETTLED INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT PERIODS
OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AFTER SUNRISE. DAY TIME RH VALUES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT
WITH NO RAINFALL LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 83 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 82 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
LFT 82 63 82 62 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 83 66 82 65 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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