518
FXUS64 KLCH 201805
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SEA FOG.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LIGHT FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS STALLED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS HAS LEFT A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. OVER A 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT, 67F AT KAEX AND 79F AT
KLCH. THE 20/18Z UPPER SOUNDING THAT IS IN PROGRESS STILL SHOWS AN
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL HELP KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
CHECK. STILL WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM THE
FRONT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, SOME LIGHT STREAMER
SHOWERS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN. WITH THE WARM
AND MOIST AIR MASS MOVING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS, SEA FOG
IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. PROGS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SEA FOG
TO MOVE INLAND WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST INTO LOWER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A CANADIAN
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DECENT MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. STILL COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. CAPE IS LOOKING MODEST AND SHEAR VECTORS ARE NOT AS
STRONG AS LAST WEEKENDS EVENT TO GO ALONG WITH A MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE STRENGTH OF THE
CONVECTION IN CHECK. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE OR
REASONABLY HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY, WILL BRING A COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
COULD SEE SOME BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO GO
ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT MAY BRING AN
INCREASES FIRE DANGER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON
SATURDAY.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW BETWEEN A 30 AND 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
A WARM UP WILL BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH WINDS OFF THE GULF BEGIN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE KAEX TERMINAL WITH A
MAINLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
AFTER 21/00Z, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR FOR KLCH AND KBPT OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFR
FOR KARA AND KLFT. KAEX IS EXPECTED TO SEE IFR FROM CEILINGS
BEFORE SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT TO MODEST. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
50 AND 60 PERCENT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN 30
PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 71 39 59 / 20 40 0 0
LCH 65 77 44 61 / 10 40 10 0
LFT 68 79 45 60 / 20 50 20 0
BPT 64 79 45 63 / 10 40 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ073-074-152-241-242-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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