095
FXUS64 KLCH 081235
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
735 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING
- CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE ISAIAS
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS APPROACHES THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. TO OUR WEST, A TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO
TEXAS AND IS PROVIDING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW THAT IS PUSHING
ISAIAS NORTH. TO OUR EAST, RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
BLOCK THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING FARTHER EAST INTO FLORIDA. FOR
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THE FORECAST TRACKS KEEP
US ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF OUR CWA.
BY FRIDAY, WE WILL BE FEELING THE INFLUENCE FROM ISAIAS WITH A
ROBUST NORTHEAST FLOW. WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST, ACADIANA
SHOULD EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO FLORIDA.
FARTHER WEST SUBSIDENCE FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIMIT RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY ELEVATED FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING
NATURE OF THE STORM, FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ISSUE
FOR US. WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND ISAIAS,
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY AS DRY AIR REIGNS SUPREME
IN THE REGION. HURRICANE ISAIAS IS ORGANIZING SLOWLY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF. HIGH CLOUDS CASTING OFF ISAIAS MAY START INCHING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BUT LARGELY DRY AIR WILL KEEP US
WITHOUT MANY CEILINGS TO SPEAK OF.
THE GREATER CONCERN WILL BE FOR ELEVATED WINDS RESPONDING FROM
ISAIAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CALM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE
NOT BEING IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THIS STORM, WE DO EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS STARTING TONIGHT, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. THE REST OF THE WATERS WILL BE UNDER A SCA
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, A GALE WARNING LOOKS
LIKELY BUT IS CONDITIONAL ON THE PATH OF ISAIAS.
WAVES WILL STEADILY RISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUILDING TO
OVER 10 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. NEAR THE SHORE, WAVES
ARE FORECASTED TO REACH OVER 5 FEET. ALONG THE COAST, COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY STARTING ON FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PUSHED KBDI VALUES TO BETWEEN 500 AND
700 ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST, OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS THAT WILL PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE CURRENT
DRY CONDITIONS, THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND HIGH WINDS CREATES A
CONCERNING SETUP FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MINRH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 20 KNOTS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...11
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