207
FXUS64 KLCH 071756
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
KEEP US GENERALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA TO THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE INSTABILITY, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN, AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT, PWAT VALUES
WILL BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH VALUES ABOVE 1.9 INCHES.
AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, THE “SWIMMING POOL” OF MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS BETWEEN 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY. THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL
CLEAR OUT THE RAIN. COOL, DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE LOW END, WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT DROPPED OUR DEW POINTS BY 20 DEGREES.
WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY'S RAIN, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DROP
VISIBILITY. FRIDAY MORNING, PATCHY SHOWERS WILL FORM LEADING TO
VCSH CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS BACK TO MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTH GULF. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY STARTING ON TUESDAY. NO HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MARINERS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN HAS HELPED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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