903
FXUS64 KLCH 301132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BECOME REESTABLISHED, CAUSING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A RISE IN TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ALREADY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.
-THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WHAT WILL BE A MOISTURE RICH
REGION.
-RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES. A MULTIDAY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALOFT, A STEADILY WEAKENING RIDGE IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION,
ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE. AT THE
SURFACE, A BROADER RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS TOO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH A
TROUGH MOVING IN AND CREATING A SOMEWHAT TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. EVEN
WITH THE DRIER LAYER GRADUALLY MOISTENING, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY.
STARTING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND,
WE WILL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A MULTIDAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER AZ
IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
BEFORE WEAKENING AND OPENING UP. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FUELED BY TWO
MAIN SOURCES OF MOISTURE.
FIRST, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO, CURRENTLY INLAND OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO TX. SECOND, TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THAT WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED. PWATS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, APPROACHING THE DAILY MAXIMUM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
CONTINUE BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE, BUT REMAINS MURKY
REGARDING THE FRONTS AFTERWARD. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE TIMING OF
THE END OF THIS MULTIDAY RAINFALL EVENT. WPC HAS ALREADY
INTRODUCED MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THREAT
LEVELS, ALONG WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF GENERAL FLOODING FROM THE SKY, WE COULD ALSO BE LOOKING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
SETX COUNTIES AND SWLA PARISHES. WITH TIDES STILL FORECAST BELOW
1.5 MHHW, NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY INTO
MIDWEEK. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING, HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER MIDWEEK, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS A
RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL AFTER THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20
BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND FIVE KNOTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE SMALL AND
WOULD ONLY IMPACT A TERMINAL FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD, IF AT ALL.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE WATERS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE, MAKING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL IMPACT COASTAL WATERS, REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND CAUSING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY; HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AND WILL HELP
REDUCE FIRE DANGER AS WE MOVE INTO OCTOBER. HOWEVER, WITH A
MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL SEE A DROP IN DROUGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH THE NEXT DROUGHT UPDATE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...66
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