574
FXUS64 KLCH 252323
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS,
LOWER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY.
- SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL, THE COOL FRONT HELPED BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL PLEASANT
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW BEFORE MOVING OFF AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST, THEN EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN. ALOFT, A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TX COAST,
ALSO HELPING TO BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 18Z
SOUNDING. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SINKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
NEVERTHELESS, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES IN PLAY
WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE
POLO IN THE EPAC, AN UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, AND ANOTHER DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE
NOT FULLY RESOLVED THE TIMING AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING, AS A
MULTIDAY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY COMING BACK UP
THEREAFTER, HEAT INDICES COULD RETURN TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME
LOCATIONS DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH. AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORDS, AND HEAT INDICES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH HEAT HAZARD CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, CONDITIONS
COULD FEEL INCREASINGLY HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE DURING THAT TIME. BY
MID NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A MAINLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE TAF PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AIR MASS STILL LOOKS DRY
ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THE RESULT. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR LESS HUMID DAYS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTS. THE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
PERCENT. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FOG, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...07
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