528
FXUS64 KLCH 011135
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES.
- SURGE IMPACTS FROM TS EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED RANGE 3 - 5 FEET
FROM HIGH ISLAND TX TO VERMILION / CAMERON PARISH LINE. ONLY
MINOR SURGE IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF STORM SURGE WARNING. PRIMARY WIND
THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOCALIZED TO JEFFERSON COUNTY AND CAMERON
PARISH.
- A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS AND HIGH MOISTURE KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 160NM SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES TRACKING WNW AT 6 MPH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR A LANDFALL NEAR SABINE, TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
AMOUNT OF TIME ALONG WITH SOME DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THAT BEING SAID, PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY WINDS/GUSTS AS IT NEARS LANDFALL.
THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED TO JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
WESTERN CAMERON PARISH WHERE THE GREATEST WIND THREAT WILL BE. A
STORM SURGE WARNING IN NOW IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO CAMERON /
VERMILION PARISH LINE. PEAK SURGE APPEARS TO BE CONFINED BETWEEN
HIGH ISLAND, TX AND CAMERON, LA. SIMILARLY, THE HIGHEST FLOODING
RAINFALL THREAT EXTENDS FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG SOUTH
CENTRAL LA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX. EDOUARD HAS MAINTAINED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE SUGGESTING THAT PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINING
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE INCREASING LATITUDE NORTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AFTER LANDFALL THIS AFTERNOON,
EDOUARD WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BUT LIKELY EXPAND RAINFALL IMPACTS.
LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN FACILITATE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL THREATS ASIDE, MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL WILL HELP STALL THE WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TX WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
BY THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
LEADING TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
90S TOWARD THE COAST. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA WILL RECOVER TEMPERATURES INTO UPPER 90S. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HANG IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL LEND
SCATTERED MODERATE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
RAIN AND STORMS FROM EDOUARD WILL CAUSE LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
AT LCH AND BPT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
INCREASING SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS LFT, ARA, LCH, AND BPT THROUGH THE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD WILL TRACK TOWARD SABINE, TX AND MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BPT UNDER A STORM WARNING MAY SEE PERIODIC
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS / GUSTS BY MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. APART FROM ENHANCED VEERING EAST AND SOUTHEAST GUSTS,
SCATTERED TS REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUES
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS MOVING WNW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AT 7
MPH PER THIS FORECAST UPDATE ROUGHLY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SABINE, TX.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GULF MARINE
ZONES AS WELL AS SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT NEAR THE CENTER AND SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. A
STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND, TX AND THE
VERMILION / CAMERON PARISH LINE. PLEASE SEE ADVISORY DETAILS FOR
EXACT SURGE VALUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
IMPACTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70
PERCENT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE AREAS
WILL ALSO SEE A PROBABILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074-141-241-252.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ030.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR LAZ073.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR LAZ073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ252.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ201-261-262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ180-259-260.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TXZ615.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR TXZ615.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-261-262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05
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