971
FXUS64 KLCH 232346
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING (MEMORIAL DAY). IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WATCH WILL BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.
- AN ONGOING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE VERY WET PATTERN
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN ONGOING WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRODUCING HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. A FEW
REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ALONG WITH A FEW AREAS OF STREET FLOODING IN VERNON AND IBERIA
PARISHES. THIS WAVE OF ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL
CENTER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE EXPECTED WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA GIVING THEM A BIT OF A BREAK. THUS FAR, ALL FLOODING HAS
BEEN LIMITED TO STREET FLOODING AND SHOULD BE QUICK TO RUN OFF ONCE
PRECIPITATION STOPS.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER WAVE OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE HIGHER AS PREVIOUS RAINS WILL HAVE ALREADY FILLED DITCHES,
RETENTION PONDS AND OTHER STORAGE MEANS.
TODAY'S RAIN ARE JUST THE EARLY BOUTS OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
VERY WET WEEK. A QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS
EAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM DEEP TROPICAL AIR INLAND WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES FOR EACH OF THE WAVES OF ACTIVITY.
THUS, THE FLOOD RISK WILL COME FROM BOTH LONG TERM ACCUMULATION AS
WELL AS DRAINAGE UNABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE RAINFALL RATES.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, BUT WILL WAIT TO DO SO UNTIL TOMORROW AS
I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE FORECAST.
THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND DAILY RAIN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERNIGHT THE
CONVECTION WILL START TO FADE AWAY WITH WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOW VIS
WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.
MODELS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT MAJOR IMPACTS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS EACH DAY FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY
REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK FURTHER IMPROVING THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. THE TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 70-80% RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...14
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