490
FXUS64 KLCH 021120
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD CONTINUES TO TRACK NW WHILE
WEAKENING ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND IS NO LONGER POSING
A THREAT.
- IN THE WAKE EDOUARD, A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
- WHILE HIGHS GRADUALLY RECOVER TO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, AN UNSETTLED MOISTURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD FURTHER INTO INTERIOR EAST TEXAS. ALL TROPICAL STORM
HAZARDS HAVE BEEN DROPPED FOR BOTH MARINE AND INLAND ZONES. WHILE
TROPICAL THREATS HAVE CEASED, THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AS THE REGION RETAINS THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
TO AT LEAST MARGINAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WX MAP CURRENTLY SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING LOOMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS WITH MODEST HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SE OF THE APPALACHIANS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
IN PLACE WHILE DIURNAL HEATING RESUMES TO ITS NORMAL SUMMERTIME
RHYTHM AS CLOUD COVER THINS TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN HERE, IS THAT
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RECENT FETCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WHILE THEY ARE NOT LARGELY FAVORED TO BECOME SEVERE, SOME
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LAYING DOWN 2-3" PER HOUR INSTANTANEOUS
RAINFALL RATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND IN THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS SETX AND LOWER 90S ACROSS ACADIANA INTO CENLA. AS NOTED
EARLIER, THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR BEHAVIOR THURSDAY
WHERE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED HEAVY PRECIPITATION REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD FURTHER AREAWIDE INTO THE
MID 90S NORTH OF I-10 AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. STILL LOOKING
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS A COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS / LOUISIANA COASTLINE. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FEATURE ALOFT
SUGGESTING THAT A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WILL CARRY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MIGRATE AND BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO MONDAY INDICATING CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER BEGINNING NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS TRENDING BACK TO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. THIS
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY SE TO SW AND UNDER 10KTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME THROUGH THE REMAINING
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS LFT, ARA, AEX AND LCH. REMNANT BANDS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TERMINALS IN SOUTHEAST TX
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS, VIS, AND
WEATHER. GIVEN A HIGH AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA, DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TS IS EXPECTED LATE MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INLAND GAINING MORE
BERTH FROM SEA. THEREFORE, TROPICAL HAZARDS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED
WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOWERING AND ABATING. EXPECT A MODEST ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND 7-15 KTS INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE DAILY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE 1 - 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL FROM LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEHIND EDOUARD. THAT SAID, WHILE MANY LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST TX RECEIVED SOME MORE THAN HEALTHY DOSES OF RAINFALL, MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST LA REMAINS DRY AND STILL AT A DEFICIT FROM THE ONGOING
DROUGHT. CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE EXERCISED WITH DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, OUTSIDE OF JEFFERSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES IN
TEXAS, KBDI RANGES 600 - 730 THROUGH FRIDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-261-262-515-516-
615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...05
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