547
FXUS64 KLCH 092320
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 101-108.
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A 1028MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS, WHILE A
WEAK BOUNDARY IS NOTED IN THE NORTHERN GULF. AREA RADAR AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING NORTH INTO SE TX AND S LA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY, WITH CAMS
SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH TOWARDS I-10
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAINING MOST WIDESPREAD CLOSER TO THE
COAST. FURTHER INLAND, A TOUCH OF SLIGHTLY 'DRIER' AIR AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP
CONVECTION IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE TO OUR
AFTERNOON HIGHS, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FURTHER INLAND AND LOWER 90S
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO
THE SE US JUST TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY, EVOLVING INTO TWO SMALLER RIDGES WITH THE FORECAST AREA
SITUATED BETWEEN THEM BY LATE TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NE GULF BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD
BRINGING WITH IT A SLUG OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS START TO
SURGE BY LATE TOMORROW, INCREASING INTO THE 2.20"+ RANGE (90TH
PERCENTILE IS 2.09" FOR REFERENCE) AND REMAINING ELEVATED NEAR AND
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE TX COAST. TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST OVER SE LA INTO LOWER ACADIANA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANGES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WITH LOWER ACADIANA NOW INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL
RISK TOMORROW. BY FRIDAY, THE COMBINATION OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW POPS TO SURGE AREA-WIDE, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS LINGERS ALOFT AND
PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO JUST BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WPC CONTINUES
TO OUTLINE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA-WIDE ON
SATURDAY, AND WHILE NOTHING IS OUTLINED FOR SUNDAY AT THE MOMENT I
WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINAL ADDED EVENTUALLY. AFTER
SEVERAL WET DAYS, ANY SHOWERS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY NEAR URBAN AREAS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH THE FORECAST
AREA INITIALLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO EXPAND OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD BRING POPS DOWN A BIT LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER, THEY LIKELY WON'T DROP OUT ALL
TOGETHER AT LEAST INITIALLY AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING TYPE CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE UP ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE EACH
AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH NO COLD FRONT IN SITE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET, BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. EVEN WITH CONVECTION, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY MID DAY THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL PATTERN OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY, EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINRH EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE 45-
60 PERCENT INLAND AND 60-75 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...05
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