815
FXUS64 KLCH 290854
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN
KS.
WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE AREA, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. WHILE THE RISK OF FLOODING IS
DECREASING, STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY SLOW. IF TRAINING SETS UP FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME FLOODING MAY OCCUR. KEPT THE FFA IN PLACE FOR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST IN LA WHERE THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION TODAY AND
YESTERDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE PLAINS. THE SOUTH FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE
GULF. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET MINUS PATCHY FOG,
BUT AS TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP. THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION, HOWEVER WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEATING, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 190 AS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SVR WX AND A MARGINAL RISK SOUTH TO THE COAST.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
CAA WILL DECREASE TEMPS INTO TUESDAY, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
FLOW BEGINNING. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK.
GUIDANCE VARIES SOMEWHAT FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE PLACEMENT
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS BEFORE
STALLING. THE NBM IS ON THE WETTER SIDE IF COMPARING TO THE GFS
WHICH HAS THE UPPER RIDGE CLOSER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHERE AS THE ECM HAS THE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF FL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
AREA OF TSRA ENTERING SE TX THIS EVENING, WITH PREDOMINATE TSRA AT BPT
THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. AREA OF TSRA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS
AEX/LCH FROM 01-05, AND ARA/LFT FROM 03-07Z. THEREAFTER, -SHRA WITH
VCTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. FOR SATURDAY, EXPECTING
MAINLY VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z WITH A PROB30 FROM 16-22Z FOR
TSRA AT ALL SITES. SOUTH WINDS HAVE REMAINED VERY ELEVATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECTING AROUND 20-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30-34 KTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING IN THE 10-14 KT RANGE.
08/DML
MARINE
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. HEADLINES WILL BE DROPPED AS SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO MID DAY.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 65 84 65 / 80 0 30 70
LCH 79 68 80 69 / 70 10 20 30
LFT 79 69 84 70 / 90 10 20 50
BPT 81 68 82 68 / 40 0 20 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ044-045-055-073-
074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
475.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...08
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