583
FXUS64 KLCH 071728
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING
- MONITORING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR THROUGH TOMORROW KEEPING RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL. EVEN WITH
THE DRIER AIR DEWPOINTS WILL NOT DROP MUCH TODAY AND TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
COULD SEE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL OR NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY IMPROVING INTO A BETTER CONSENSUS OF BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY. ISAIAS IS FORECASTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT
TURNS NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WHILE THE TRACK HAS
WOBBLED SOME TO THE EAST AND WEST, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND NHC
FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT OF A LANDFALL IN THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GREATER IMPACTS FROM
ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF OUR CWA; HOWEVER A DEEP
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS WILL INCREASE OUR RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
TO SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN BOTH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
(10-15KTS) AND WIND GUSTS (15-20KTS) FRIDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE STORM.
/86/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY AROUND 8-12 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT ARA. WINDS BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET, PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
OUT OF THE NE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF A SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, GALE FORCE CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. MINRH VALUES COULD DROP TO AROUND 30% IN SOME
REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AS TS
ISAIAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MOVES NORTH.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...86
AVIATION...64
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