338
FXUS64 KLCH 101720
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A PROBABILITY OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS
DOMINATED BY SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OVER
FLORIDA, WITH OUR REGION LOCATED IN A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN. SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IS LEADING TO LIGHT BUT MOISTURE-RICH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK SURFACE FEATURE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA HAS INCREASED MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER, WITH PWAT VALUES ANALYZED
AT 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES (AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY TO MID
AUGUST).
THE SURFACE WAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AN EARLY
START TO CONVECTION THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE VERY UNSTABLE (MUCAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG) WITH WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS GREATER THAN 12-13KFT. AS A RESULT, HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE A CONCERN, AND WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA. A FEW INSTANCES OF NUISANCE
FLOODING AND/OR PONDING OF WATER ARE POSSIBLE SHOULD HIGH RAINFALL
RATES OCCUR OVER URBAN AND/OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. ALSO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, AND 0-3KM MAXIMUM THETA-E
DIFFERENCES NEAR 25K, THOUGH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS THREAT. CAMS DEPICT A DOWNWARD TREND IN
CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WORK OVER THE AIRMASS,
WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH HUMIDITY
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-104.
THE SOUTHEASTERN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND WESTWARD STARTING TOMORROW, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND ALSO ALLOW SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THESE FACTORS WILL WORK TOGETHER TO
DECREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PWAT STILL AROUND 1.8 INCHES,
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED AND MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG
THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MIGHT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS WILL
STAY DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LREF MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS REACH 598 DAM BY FRIDAY
(CLIMATOLOGICAL 99TH PERCENTILE) WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CWA WITH RAIN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY ZERO. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME AREAS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THESE STORMS
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS THEY WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VIS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF/LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS RESULTING
IN GENERALLY LIGHT (5-12 KT) SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA WILL BRING A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
NEAR ZERO FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXPANDING
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
DECREASE IN DAILY SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY ZERO FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES TO DROP
TO THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE, BUT WINDS LESS THAN 5-10 KT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...17
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