099
FXUS64 KLCH 231138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH UNDERLYING
DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE THE FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE AGAIN TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARISHES OF
LOUISIANA.
- A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK INTO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TODAY, WHILE ALOFT TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT, A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVERHEAD BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER
SEASONAL AND DRY DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY TODAY
BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FURTHER RELAXES. THEREFORE, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING
TODAY AND JUST KEEP WITH THE ONGOING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. STILL,
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ONCE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BRINGS OUR LAST BIT OF COOL SEASONAL WEATHER
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS WINDS TO
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHS REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE TOMORROW NIGHT A
WARMING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BECOME APPARENT AS WED MORNING LOWS
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. FURTHER WARMING/MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME ZONAL OVERHEAD
AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE.
17
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, WITH PWATS
APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY AHEAD
OF A COOL FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA. UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT WON'T BRING US ANY COOLER AIR, WITH
HIGHS STILL IN THE 70S FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A SHOT OF
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY THAT WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CLEAR, DRY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD WITHIN A
DRY AIRMASS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. THE FINAL PUSH OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE OVER LOWER ACADIANA TODAY, WITH ALL OTHER
TERMINALS CARRYING LOWER BREEZY, NORTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNDOWN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 56 29 65 50 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 59 36 65 55 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 56 33 63 52 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 61 39 68 56 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-
432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11
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