506
FXUS64 KLCH 091721
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN.
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY, WILL HELP TO
INCREASE CONVECTION SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ANOTHER SEASONAL START TO THE DAY HAS UNFOLDED WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH LA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS AGAIN PROVIDING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERHEAD,
WHILE ALOFT WEAK RIDGING IS SLOWLY TAKING SHAPE AS TWO RIDGES MERGE
OVERHEAD. AS RIDGING TAKES SHAPE OVERHEAD TODAY IT WILL KEEP
SOMEWHAT OF A CAP ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT WON'T COMPLETELY
INHIBIT STORMS FROM FORMING ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLIGHT EXPANSION ON COVERAGE OF
WHAT'S ALREADY ONGOING BUT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TODAY.
OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WEAK RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD BY TOMORROW,
BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY AND HOT DAY FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. LIKE TODAY, MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH MINIMAL EXPANSION IN COVERAGE ALONG THE SEABREEZE
THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO LOSE ITS HOLD ON
THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST GIVING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS, TOGETHER WITH
THE SEABREEZE/DIURNAL HEATING, WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ADDITION OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL CAUSE POPS TO RAMP UP EVEN
FURTHER FROM SUN THROUGH TUES AS IT PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION, WITH POPS THEN TAPERING BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
TAMPER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MON
AND TUES, WHICH IS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED
TO EXPAND QUITE AS MUCH AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND 3000FT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING SOME SITES TO WAFFLE BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR ON OCCASION. THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING A BIT BY THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, HOWEVER COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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