333
FXUS64 KLCH 191803
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, HITTING THE UPPER 90S TO
100 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO
112+F THIS WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PICTURE ACROSS THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG
500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS DRIVING LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR OUR AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE, WITH
GOES DERIVED PWAT IN THE 1.3-1.7 INCH RANGE (10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE). LOOKING INTO THE GULF, THE DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF HAS NOW BEEN DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (MORE ON
THAT BELOW).
THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE HEAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MAIN FACTOR THAT HAS KEPT HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM BECOMING
TOO EXTREME SO FAR HAS BEEN THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR JUST OFF
THE SURFACE, WHICH HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND THUS KEEP HEAT INDICES
DOWN. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND THAT WILL START TO BRING US TO THOSE MORE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX LEVELS, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR INLAND PARISHES WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
TODAY FOR OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST PARISHES, WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 108 IN THESE AREAS. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110, AND THIS ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO BE NEAR ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE EVEN HOTTER AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF 100+ HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 40-60 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF US 190.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED UPWARDS WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT, FURTHER HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MOST OF THE CWA, WITH NORTHERN AREAS
POTENTIALLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.
AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD, IT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO OUR AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE THE
RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY LOWER ACADIANA STARTING
TUESDAY.
NOW FOR THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: THE JUST-DESIGNATED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE WEST INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES NOW APPEAR THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS IN OUR CWA, PARTICULARLY EASTERN AND/OR
COASTAL AREAS, AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO
FUTURE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND
BREEZIER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR EASTERN WATERS
WHERE SPEEDS MAY REACH 15-20 KT. EXPECT GENERALLY 15-20 KT WINDS AND
2-4 FT SEAS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS AFTER MONDAY. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 35 TO 55 PERCENT EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, LOWEST IN CENTRAL LA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST TX. RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-032-033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ028-029-032-
033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...14
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