304
FXUS64 KLCH 112317
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
FREEZING TONIGHT.
- A LIGHT FREEZE OR PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS.
- ANOTHER, LARGELY DRY, COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
BEGIN TO BROADEN SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH TREND IN THE MID 50S. BY
EVENING WINDS WILL CALM AND BECOME VARIABLE ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY ALOFT AND LITTLE SURFACE FLOW. SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S CAN BE EXPECTED WHILE THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER NUDGES INLAND WITH BRIEF ONSHORE RETURN FLOW.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND SOUTH ACROSS THE HEARTLAND TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN THE MEANWHILE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VEER WESTERLY WITH MILD HIGHS AHEAD OF THE DRY COLD
FRONT THE MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVES QUICKLY
AMPLIFIES EAST OVER THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT
IN BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH POTENTIALLY MARINE HEADLINES IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS THOSE ZONES. ADDITIONALLY
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH HIGHS KEEPING TO THE LOW/MID 50S
THURSDAY. THE FOLLOWING SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES THE SETX / SWLA
REGION BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE ACCELERATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC MODELING, THERE HAS BEEN ABOUT 5° UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT OF THE LONG RANGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN SUGGESTIVE OF THE UPSTREAM PORTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CANADA TO DEEPEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY. IF THE PATTERN DOES ALLOW A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GULF MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED UP ALONG THE WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THIS COMING WEEKEND COULD BE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND OR UNDER 5 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVERHEAD MONDAY KEEPING WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT PRODUCING SEAS FROM 3-7 FEET. SEAS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING BACK ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 25-35% RANGE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AMONGST QUICK RESPONDING FUELS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
27-37% RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS. EXCEPTION LIES NEAR THE SAM RAYBURN
AND TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIRS TOWARD NORTHERN TYLER, JASPER, AND
NEWTON COUNTIES WHERE LOCAL RH MAY RANGE TOWARD 35-45% TUESDAY. A
BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 31 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 37 56 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 35 56 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 39 59 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66
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