546
FXUS64 KLCH 131109
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
- STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW FORWARD
MOTION THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF STREET FLOODING ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. A RAIN CONTAMINATED 00Z KLCH SOUNDING
MEASURED A VERY TROPICAL 2.2 PWAT ALONG WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OVER
16KFT WHICH, EVEN IF NOT COMPLETELY ACCURATE, WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. ADD TO THIS, SLOW
FORWARD STORM MOTION AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STREET
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A FLOOD
WATCH WAS CONSIDERED, BUT THINK THAT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
SPATIALLY LIMITED SO OPTED TO HOLD OFF. THAT SAID, AREAS THAT
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUNDAY INCLUDING LAKE CHARLES, PARTS
OF VERNON, RAPIDES AND LAFAYETTE PARISHES WILL BE MORE
TO FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED IT'S SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH SOME RUNS INDICATING
SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT EVEN IF THIS VERIFIES,
THERE WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
WITH RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WHILE A FEW, DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP
AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS MAY OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE COAST. FOR NOW, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
KEEPING A LID ON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR TODAY IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING,
HOWEVER COASTAL STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTH, HOWEVER WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
NEAR STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A VERY MOIST GULF AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK
WITH THE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...05
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