708
FXUS64 KLCH 022313
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
613 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER,
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
- ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES, WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 15 TO 30% RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, WHILE ALOFT A TROUGH DOMINATES THE E CONUS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA SITUATED ON ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. WITH THE FRONT
NEARLY TO THE COAST, A DRY AND WARM SUMMER DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN ITS WAKE. ONGOING CONVECTION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE, LEAVING BEHIND SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS (EXCEPT
ACROSS ST MARY/LOWER ST MARTIN WHERE CLOUD COVER LINGERS). OFFSHORE
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE ADDITION OF LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. OVERNIGHT, LOWS DIP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, SLOW MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TOMORROW AS
THE NEARBY FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
AS IT DOES SO, LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
BACK TO THE SW ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT LIFTS
FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA RESULT IN A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AREA-WIDE. AT THE SAME TIME, E CONUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND A WEAK CUT OFF
LOW/SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE SE US THAT WILL LINGER NEARBY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER, WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR
STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD ALOFT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, A WELL ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WITH PWATS RETURNING TO
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME
SITUATED BETWEEN A COUPLE OF RIDGES OVER THE WEST CONUS AND OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKNESS OVERHEAD BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. WHILE THIS WON'T BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL, IT WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS JUST SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
AROUND THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID SCT DECKS THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED AND WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE OVER THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AS CONVECTION TAPERS OFF. A LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AND BEYOND. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 PERCENT. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SLOWLY RETURN TOMORROW THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...87
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