640  
FXUS64 KLCH 152212  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
512 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
00Z TAF ISSUANCE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH ALL  
TERMINALS EXCEPT ARA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT BY TAF  
ISSUANCE. I SAY WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY, AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT WITH  
SERIOUS TEMPERATURE DROP STILL FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NE TX/N LA.  
INTERMITTENT SHRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS MVFR  
CEILINGS, WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 10-14Z TUESDAY. MVFR  
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD  
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-14  
KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.  
 
DML  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 445 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
WAVY CDFNT NEAR A ROUGHLY PINEVILLE, LA TO PORT ARTHUR, TX LINE,  
AND CONTINUING TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TWD THE SE.  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRE AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY, WITH A COUPLE  
OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS GETTING A BIT ON THE STRONG SIDE  
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND EXHIBITING DEVIANT MOTION WITH  
ROTATION. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WITH  
STRATIFORM RAINS TONIGHT AS THE SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS SE LA AND THE  
SC/SW LA COASTAL WATERS AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE OH VALLEY  
CONTINUES TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN  
PLACE TOMORROW AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE PRIMARY LOW  
LEVEL SOURCES OF LIFT, THE SFC FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H85  
FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH, AMID A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.  
UPSTREAM TROF DIVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE TOMORROW COUPLED WITH  
A SECONDARY HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN  
DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE  
PLENTY OF MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA, LITTLE IN THE  
WAY OF MEANINGFUL LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE PRESENT AWAY FROM THE  
COASTAL WATERS, SO ANTICIPATE LITTLE MORE THAN WIDESPREAD CLOUD  
COVER OVER THE INLAND FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT.  
 
RAIN CHANCES START TO CREEP BACK UP OVER E TX ON THU, AND AREAWIDE  
FRI INTO SAT AS A ROBUST UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS AND  
DRIVES ANOTHER CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
13  
 
MARINE...  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST  
GULF. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW IN NATURE, AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND  
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE FORECAST. A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH  
AND WEST OF THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF IT. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN  
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING FROM THE  
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN  
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS  
WILL RELAX AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT FORECAST TO BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 55 57 51 63 / 30 50 30 10  
LCH 61 64 57 69 / 40 40 20 20  
LFT 64 71 59 70 / 50 40 20 20  
BPT 61 63 57 68 / 40 40 20 20  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-470.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT  
TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-472.  
 
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-  
432.  
 

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...08  
 
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