331
FXUS64 KLCH 162334
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH 1 AM LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR SATURDAY.
- HIGH WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN WIND ADVISORIES AS
WELL AS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN STARTING TODAY. HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS DEPICT A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN US. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREAS, USHERING IN
A MUCH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH VERMILION, LAFAYETTE, AND ST
MARTIN PARISHES. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70, WHILE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT SEE CLOUDIER SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING TO THE 70S. THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT
LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. THE GREATEST WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN INLAND SE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LA
PERHAPS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORIES FURTHER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA, WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR OUR FIRST TRUE TASTE OF FALL ACROSS OUR AREA THIS YEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AND
DIP WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY MIDWEEK. LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP ANY GULF MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR AREAS, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, AND PWAT IN THE 0.4
TO 0.6 INCH RANGE (BELOW 25TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY).
AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS ESSENTIALLY
ZERO, WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SPEAK OF THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS RANGING 20-30KTS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. SOME BKN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS ACADIANA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON.
GUSTS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING THIS RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO RELAX
SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL HAVE MODERATE BREEZES OUT
OF THE NORTH.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
GREATEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT, WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG. WHILE WINDS DECREASE FROM THESE MORE HAZARDOUS
LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
EASTERN MARINE ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LOUISIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POPPING UP ALONG IT IN THE ACADIANA REGION. AS
NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THEY WILL BRING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS FROM ONGOING
DROUGHT TO CREATE A PERIOD OF HIGH FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WHERE AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP AS LOW AS 30-35
PERCENT WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST LATER
INTO THE EVENING THAN TYPICAL AS HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER
OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH EVEN DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE NORTH AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH DROPPING
INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-
49, WHERE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.
WINDS DECREASE CLOSER TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE FOR SUNDAY HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON MINRH LIKELY
IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NEAR
ZERO THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ027>030.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ027>033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ029-032-033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ180-259-260.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...30
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