632
FXUS64 KLCH 051209
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMERGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE ALL BUT THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE KLCH RAOB WAS
STILL QUITE MOIST, COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.57 INCHES, WHICH IS
EXACTLY WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE FRONT, AND THIS ASSOCIATED
DEEP MSTR POOL, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROF TRAVERSES
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INFUSION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
AND A SUPPRESSION OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING UNDERNEATH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, BUT THE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SHOWN BY THE NBM THIS WEEKEND ARE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROGGED NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE DEEPER MSTR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
CIGS AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS IMPROVING AT ALL TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE IN VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SO HAVE ATTEMPTED TO
CAPUTURE THAT GENERAL TREND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AEX COULD SEE
ITS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AND IMPROVING
THEREAFTER, DECIDED TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THAT POTENTIAL AND
A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED TO CAPTURE THIS POSSIBILITY. ALL TERMINALS
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 14 TO 17 KT THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALMER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ARA AND LFT BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH VICINITY SHOWERS, A
SHORT PAUSE IS EXPECTED BEFORE VICINITY SHOWERS RETURN AT 17Z.
THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS
THIS EVENING.
BN/56
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MODEST EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WITH MINRH DROPPING FROM THE 70S DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 60S RANGE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
470.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...13
AVIATION...56
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