492
FXUS64 KLCH 061130
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR DAILY MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 107 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOOKING AT A FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IN TURN WILL
BRING A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US BRINGING A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN THE MID LEVELS. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW, SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND INITIATED BY SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESO
SCALE BOUNDARIES. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED, SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES IF THEY OCCUR OVER URBAN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK NEAR NORM AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW 90S, SO DEVELOPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HELP KEEP AIR
TEMPERATURES FROM BEING EXTREME AND ALSO KEEPING AFTERNOON MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 107 AND BELOW ANY HEAT HAZARDS.
NBM IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHWEST US RETREATS TO THE WEST AND THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE TO MOVE IN.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND A WEAK THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING AT THIS
HOUR NEAR ARA AND LFT. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THESE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS THE
DIURNAL CYCLE BEGINS WITH SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE CLOSELY CONTAINED TO THE TYPICAL EARLY AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SUNDOWN.
WINDS WILL START OUT VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING
WIND SHOULD RANGE IN THE 5 TO 9 KNOT RANGE DURING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN WITH SUNDOWN.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WINDS
WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODEST FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW SEAS
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE OVERALL ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER WITH AN INCREASE IN THE KBDI. WITH LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FROM MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...11
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