641
FXUS64 KLCH 162339
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
DISCUSSION
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT OVER-RIDING
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW CEILINGS AND SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION, WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE IFR RANGE.
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BRINGING NORTH WINDS AND AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE EARLY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE LOW CEILINGS AROUND IFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS, IN FACT SO FAR NO LIGHTNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S, SO INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING
FOR THE LIGHTNING ASPECT.
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LA PARISHES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONE ROUND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING NOW THROUGH THE EVENING, TAPERING OFF AS WE
GET CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POPS STAY LOW MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN
HESITANT TO ADD PRECIP. IT COULD BE AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT,
SO WILL MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT RAIN MAKER STARTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NEXT WEEK. THAT FAR OUT RELIABILITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SPECIFICS. STAY TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO SEE HOW IT PANS OUT.
TEMPERATURES-WISE WE WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, STARTING AROUND
DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 57 67 50 71 / 90 30 30 10
LCH 62 68 53 70 / 70 50 50 10
LFT 62 69 54 70 / 80 50 50 10
BPT 60 66 53 70 / 70 50 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
041>045-052>055-073-074.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ430-432-435.
AVIATION...07
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