650
FXUS64 KLCH 061831
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
131 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE RETURNING
- MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AL92 IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK ALONG
WITH LOWS BEING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS WELL. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES COULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AT THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BEING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNING.
WE ARE MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AL92 WHICH THE NHC HAS GIVEN A
100% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 7 DAYS. WHILE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THAT LANDFALL AND IMPACTS ARE
GREATEST TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION, THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE. THERE
IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IN BOTH THE EVOLUTION
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM IS FORECASTED TO SET UP ALONG THE GULF COAST
WHICH WILL CAUSE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACTS TO THE SYSTEM
ITSELF. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DUE
TO THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOW, BUT NON ZERO, CHANCE OF
LIGHT, SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THESE
PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS ATTM, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (AL92) IN THE SOUTHERN GULF A SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY
AND ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, GALE FORCE CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED AS THIS IS
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MINRH VALUES COULD DROP TO AROUND 30% IN SOME REGIONS OF
THE NORTHERN CWA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (AL92) IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES NORTH.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...86
AVIATION...66
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