985
FXUS64 KLCH 101902
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100 AND 105 EACH DAY
WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COMBINE WITH DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS. RADAR IS JUST SHOWING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS SO FAR DEVELOPING
OUT OF THE CU STREAKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IT IS SOMEWHAT HUMID
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HANGING OVER THE SOUTHERN US
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL ALSO
CONTINUE. THEREFORE, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE.
ACTIVITY THAT DOES FORM WILL DECREASE AT SUNSET.
WITH THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE, IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE
SUMMER AS THE HEAT AND MUGGINESS WILL BE INCREASING. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH THE MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES. AT NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER 90%, SO DEFINITELY "STICKY."
AS WE GET TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG DOWN
TO THE SOUTH BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION THAT WILL
BASICALLY STALL AS IT REACHES THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE THE MAX MOVING
AVERAGE OF 2.25 INCHES TO GO ALONG WITH MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER 80 PERCENT. AIR MASS LOOKS TROPICAL WITH WARM CLOUD
LAYER BETWEEN 12K AND 15K FEET. THEREFORE, THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
HIGH RAIN RATES WITH THE CONVECTION. WPC WILL BEGIN OUTLINING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OR BETWEEN A 5 AND 14 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. STAY TUNED.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTH FLOW. DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED STREAKS OF CU
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD, DID MENTION
SOME VCSH FOR KBPT.
LOW CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT, SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOR MAY FORM NEAR SUNRISE,
WITH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS AT THE KAEX
TERMINAL.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEK PROVIDING LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS, ALONG
WITH LOW SEAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED AT BEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED INTO SATURDAY.
LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 50 AND 60
PERCENT. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH READINGS
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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