954
FXUS64 KLCH 140723
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
223 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES
THAT COULD POSE A FLOOD RISK.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK MAY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THE
CURRENT TEMPS AND HUMIDITY FEELS MORE LIKE AUGUST OR LATE JULY
THAN MID JUNE.
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS BEING DRIVEN INTO SE TX AND SW LA
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY
SUNDAY/TODAY.
ALOFT, CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS BY A RIDGE.
TODAY THE WEAK GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MOISTURE
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ALSO BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE DAY WILL START OUT WARM, HUMID, AND
FAIRLY CLOUD FREE, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH VERY HIGH RAIN RATES TODAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE, DECREASING THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. THE WEAK LOW
CURRENTLY OVER GULF IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BY
MID WEEK. WHILE CHANCES OF ANY DEVELOPMENT INTO AN ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS UNLIKELY, HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A CONCERN AS
THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TIDES ALONG THE COAST MAY RUN BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MID WEEK,
HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS IN AND
STALLS. A WEAK LOW MAY TRAVERSE THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, BUT IT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF
THAT WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...05
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