640
FXUS64 KLCH 152212
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018
DISCUSSION
00Z TAF ISSUANCE
AVIATION
WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT ARA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT BY TAF
ISSUANCE. I SAY WINDSHIFT BOUNDARY, AS THE TRUE COLD FRONT WITH
SERIOUS TEMPERATURE DROP STILL FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NE TX/N LA.
INTERMITTENT SHRA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS MVFR
CEILINGS, WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 10-14Z TUESDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-14
KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 445 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018/
DISCUSSION...
WAVY CDFNT NEAR A ROUGHLY PINEVILLE, LA TO PORT ARTHUR, TX LINE,
AND CONTINUING TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TWD THE SE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PRE AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY, WITH A COUPLE
OF PRE-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS GETTING A BIT ON THE STRONG SIDE
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND EXHIBITING DEVIANT MOTION WITH
ROTATION. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG WITH
STRATIFORM RAINS TONIGHT AS THE SHALLOW FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT ACROSS SE LA AND THE
SC/SW LA COASTAL WATERS AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE OH VALLEY
CONTINUES TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TOMORROW AS THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL SOURCES OF LIFT, THE SFC FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H85
FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH, AMID A BROAD REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
UPSTREAM TROF DIVING INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE TOMORROW COUPLED WITH
A SECONDARY HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN
DRIVING THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE
PLENTY OF MSTR IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA, LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MEANINGFUL LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE PRESENT AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS, SO ANTICIPATE LITTLE MORE THAN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER OVER THE INLAND FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES START TO CREEP BACK UP OVER E TX ON THU, AND AREAWIDE
FRI INTO SAT AS A ROBUST UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS AND
DRIVES ANOTHER CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA.
13
MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. THE FRONT IS SHALLOW IN NATURE, AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FRONT, WHILE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF IT. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTH WINDS ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL RELAX AND BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 55 57 51 63 / 30 50 30 10
LCH 61 64 57 69 / 40 40 20 20
LFT 64 71 59 70 / 50 40 20 20
BPT 61 63 57 68 / 40 40 20 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR GMZ452-472.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
432.
AVIATION...08
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