027
FXUS64 KLCH 090530
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN.
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE HELPING TO INCREASE CONVECTION.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY AVERAGE AND HUMID, WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THERE.
AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA / SE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALOFT, THE
UPPER WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS THE RIDGES OFF THE CA
AND FL COASTS BOTH SHIFT FURTHER INTO THE CONUS. WHILE THIS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY INHIBIT OUR RUN OF THE MILL SEABREEZE / DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS, IT WILL HELP IN STOPPING IT FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS IN DAYS PREVIOUS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A RETURN IN CONVECTION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTHWARD. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION, WITH PWATS NEARING
OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THOSE THINGS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ALBEIT WARM, TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND, MAXTS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT IN CHECK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS A FRONT ONLY BY NAME, AS IT WILL MAKE
NO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE TO TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THIS TAF CYCLE WITH EXCEPTION TO AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A
BIT MORE LIMITED, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING A BIT BY THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE TODAY AND TOMORROW, HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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