289
FXUS64 KLCH 041130
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL
USHER CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HEAVIER
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SLIDING OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA FRIDAY
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
A TROUGH OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TOWARD LOWER ALABAMA. 00Z EVENING SOUNDING MEASURED PWAT'S
ALONG THE 90TH PERCENTILE INDICATING SOME SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDER MAY PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN PLACE, CRITERIA DO
COME CLOSE AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT PONDING IN URBAN OR LOW LYING
STREETS OR DITCHES MAY OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL NUISANCE SPOTS. THAT
SAID A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LOWER LA TODAY AND TOMORROW. WORTH NOTING HEAVIEST SIGNALS BETWEEN
PROBABILISTIC AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST AREAS ALONG THE
COAST BELOW I-10 AND INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA HAVE BETTER POTENTIALS TO
RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY REMNANT PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL STILL HANG ALONG
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING AT LEAST OF MORNING POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL- MAINLY ALONG ACADIANA AND EAST. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE YET STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SURFACE
MOISTURE PRESENT, DO EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50'S GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF SUNSHINE A MODEST CAA OUT OF THE
NORTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE CHILLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S AND LOW 40'S
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE SCATTERED ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD THE ATCHAFALAYA, BUT LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HEREAFTER, WEAK SOUTHEAST ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALLOWING
A GRADUAL WARM UP IN THE MID AFTERNOON TO THE LOW 60'S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THE LONG RANGE CALLS FOR A QUICK WARM UP SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGER
INFLUENCE FROM THE MARINE LAYER ADVECTING INLAND AND CLEARING SKIES.
HOWEVER, THIS MILD WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH AN INCOMING DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DESCENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEARTLAND. WINDS
WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. WORTH NOTING DRY AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS REGIME KEEPING THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS TOWARD FLORIDA RE-
ESTABLISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE THE
MIDWEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD, LATER DECREASING TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE MEANWHILE. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
BUILD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTER OF
THE COASTAL LOW BEFORE ABATING LATE FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
AS COASTAL LOW SHIFTS EAST WINDS RETURN OUT OF THE NE AND INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY ON NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. IN THE MEANWHILE MINIMUM RH KEEPS
TO AROUND 60% OR GREATER. GOING FORWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AFTERNOON RH DROPS FURTHER TOWARD 45-55% RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 49 36 49 40 / 90 50 30 40
LCH 57 42 52 46 / 90 40 50 40
LFT 57 43 52 45 / 100 60 50 60
BPT 59 42 54 46 / 90 30 40 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
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