981
FXUS64 KLCH 210533
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
WX MAP SHOWS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TO TEXAS BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
INLAND THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX,
CALM NORTH OF I-10, AND LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH FURTHER
SOUTH. STILL A LITTLE BREEZY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND 15 MPH
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND THE CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK NORTH OF I-10, LOWER TO MID 40S
FURTHER SOUTH. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
08/DML
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT
HAS CLEARED THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, PROMPTING THE ONGOING
WIND ADVISORY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT CALM, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH MEANDERS OVER TEXAS.
WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION, CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
EACH NIGHT. A SECOND DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH FRIDAY
MORNING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE FORECAST.
STIGGER/87
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE WEEKEND WILL
GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ON SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOMING SERLY WHILE ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE OVERHEAD IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING E CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S SAT AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS WHERE
MOISTURE RETURN REALLY STARTS TO AMP UP, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES OVER ROUGHLY A 12 HOUR PERIOD. AS A RESULT,
SUN MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS
CENLA, TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS SE TX/SW LA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR FL FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUES, KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WHILE ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S EACH AFTERNOON WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
60S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH
SMALL RAIN CHANCES (~20% OR LESS) RETURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT LOOKS TO SAG INTO CENLA EARLY TUESDAY, WHERE IT WILL GET
HUNG UP DUE TO A LACK OF ANY REAL SUPPORT ALOFT. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY MAKES IT WILL LARGELY AFFECT THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE TUES-WED PERIOD. NBM SEEMS TO THINK THE FRONT WILL AT LEAST MAKE
IT TO AROUND I-190, RESULTING IN A PLEASANT MID WEEK FOR CENLA AND
INTERIOR SE TX, WHILE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN WARM AND MOIST
BENEATH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW.
17
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 67 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 69 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 70 43 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ475.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...66
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