886
FXUS64 KLCH 261818
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THAT COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST
TEXAS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW 50% OR GREATER
PROBABILITIES OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THIS IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS AREAS WHERE SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND THE
ONGOING CONVECTION MAY HELP LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A FEW SMALL
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, EXPECT MOST OF ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS TO BE LIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE
NO LATER THAN 9 AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A
WAVE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY TAKING SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL THINK
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST NEARLY AS LONG AS TONIGHT'S STORMS AND SHOULD BE
LARGELY GONE BY SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND SURGE
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL
RATES THAT COULD CAUSE SOME SHORT TERM NUISANCE STREET FLOODING. WPC
HAS MAINTAINED THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE TROF
OVERHEAD, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH WITH LESS
COVERAGE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE TROF WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND, BUT WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL PERSIST KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DESPITE RECENT RAINS, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES THE REGION IS
CAPABLE OF EASILY ABSORBING ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO ACCUMULATION BECOMES A CONCERN. THE LATEST 72 HOUR
QPF FROM THE NBM INDICATES ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FOUR
INCHES IN MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE
A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AT PRESENT, THE OVERALL RISK OF
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT HAD
BEEN IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER UNLESS FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OR FF CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THIS THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN
TOWARDS SUNSET. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 08Z, WITH SOME LIGHT FOG/MIST POSSIBLE
AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE
WEST WHICH MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
BPT/LCH ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS WITHIN THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND NEAR SHORE LAKES AND BAYS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO BETWEEN 2-3 FEET. THE LOW
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LAKES AND BAYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SEAS IN THE 1-3 FOOT RANGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH RH WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...64
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