970
FXUS64 KLCH 211756
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE REGION FINDS ITSELF ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH A SWATH OF
FLAT 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAXIMUM HEATING FROM 1-7 PM. A SHARP
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GRADIENT WILL EXIST ROUGHLY WEST OF
LAFAYETTE WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. FOR
THOSE NOT LUCKY ENOUGH TO FIND A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH IS BETWEEN 5-
10 DEGREES ABOVE "NORMAL" TEMPERATURES ON THIS LAST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-108 RANGE.
RIDGING WILL BUILD FURTHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY, MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DESPITE THE RIDGING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE PRODUCT OF THE
COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MOISTURE OVERCOMING
THE SUPPRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RIDGE, BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE LIMITED
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN CONSISTENTLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A "DRY"
FRONT WORKING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE MID 70S INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS BEHIND THIS CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
MARGINALLY COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, BUT THE DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR MAKING
FOR SOME PLEASANT MORNINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. KLFT AND KARA HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR. SATURATED GROUNDS FROM EARLIER
PRECIPITATION WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF BR AT LFT AND ARA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY FOG DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
86
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BOTH DAYS. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A "DRY" FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DROPPING DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 70S
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DAILY
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30-45% EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...86
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