973
FXUS64 KLCH 021135
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
OF THE GULF HAS PASSED, AND NEAR IDENTICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE
PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, OUR LOCAL REGION HAS BEEN STUCK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THAT HAS
INCREASED RECENTLY.
THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS
WILL ADVANCE EAST TONIGHT AND LIMP INTO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
LESSENING THE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AS THE STORMS DRAW CLOSER,
HOWEVER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY.
A SECOND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY GONE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WIDE
SHOWERS AND STORM MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER THIS
WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTING EVENT WITH ONLY 0.5" TO 1.5" CURRENTLY
FORECAST. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.
A DRIER AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SPILL IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE DAYS
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING MID WEEK AND BEYOND. WHILE THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE,
THERE IS A CHANCE THE THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EITHER
SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH WHICH COULD CHANGE THE FORECAST, POPS-
WISE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY 17-18Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND A VERY TROPICAL AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT AEX, LFT AND ARA, BUT A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM AT BPT OR LCH
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BEGIN
TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BETWEEN 23-01Z. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT FALLING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AFTER
06Z FRIDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS, ALBEIT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOMEWHAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVES EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SPILLING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...66
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