957
FXUS64 KLCH 031902
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING, EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER OFFSHORE MORNING WHILE
CHANCES OF RAINFALL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME REDUCTIONS OF HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL LA / TX
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS BROADER CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE WANING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN
VERY HIGH PWAT'S NEAR 2.00" A MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE THE FLOW ALOFT
BEING QUITE WEAK, BROAD RIDGING IS NOTICEABLE IN THE MID LEVELS
AROUND 500MB WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION, BUT THAT IS QUITE "DAMPENED"
BY THE VERY MOIST COLUMN. THEREFORE, NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY WORK CONTAMINATE LOWER ML
PARCELS. OTHER OUTFLOWS MAY WORK TO CONSTRUCTIVELY ENHANCED MORE
BUOYANT PARCELS TO THE LFC. THIS EFFECT IS WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE
DURING SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
THE STATIONARY FRONTAL PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE A SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY WHILST IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. RECENT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THIS FEATURE
BELOW THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS FEATURE ABUTTING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS
OFFSHORE. FOR THIS REASON, WINDS/SEAS WILL MEET CRITERIA FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
CAMERON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAST. INLAND, WE'LL ALSO SEE THIS INCREASE,
BUT NOT TO ANY HAZARDOUS EXTENT- OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
THE CONCERN INLAND WILL STAY MAINLY WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. DUE TO THE EAST FETCH PULLING SOME COOLER AIR IN
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, WE'LL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY "MILDER"
TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST SEASONALLY SPEAKING, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE TOWARD THE COASTLINE THIS FRIDAY
WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. WPC OUTLINES MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AS THE FLOW RETURNS ONSHORE. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S COME INTO PLAY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DECREASE IN
SCATTERED RAINFALL CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE PULL
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE
GULF. THUS, COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY REGIME AND LESS UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB OR MAINTAIN IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
BKN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WHILE VFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL
LONGER AT SOME TERMINALS, AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION INCREASES, LOWER
BASES MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION LOOKING TO WANE AFTER
DUSK TONIGHT. FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN, BUT OVERALL
RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TO ISOLATED AREAS THROUGH THE POST MIDNIGHT
HOURS WHILE LIGHT EAST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER HAS NOW BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE AREA
SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, LEADING TO EASTERLY TO ESEERLY WINDS. TOMORROW, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT AND 4 TO 7 FT. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED, WHERE IT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW EVENING OR NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH MINRH STAYING ABOVE 50%.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN HAVE LIMITED THE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER, AS MOST FUELS ARE NOW WELL AND TRULY SOAKED. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ452-455-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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