686
FXUS64 KLCH 270535
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE (40-80%) AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
ARK-LA-TEX, WHILE ALOFT STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TROUGHING IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
REGION. A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING
SMALL PERTURBATIONS TO ROTATE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
INITIALIZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. CURRENTLY, ONE OF THESE PERTURBATIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A
WEAK MCS TYPE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH LA TONIGHT. MOST
RECENT CAMS GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING WHILE THE EASTERN EDGE REMAINS IN TACT AS IT
DIVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR BEING THE MAIN
AREA TO SEE ANY RAIN OR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT, WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION GETTING SHUT OUT ONCE AGAIN. IN REGARDS TO THAT,
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CENLA TO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN
REGION AND A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE, WHILE SPC HAS OUTLINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (SPECIFICALLY SEVERE WINDS)
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF OUR LA PARISHES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND PARTS
OF ADJACENT INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN TIMING OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
3/4AM THROUGH 7/8AM.
POST 12Z, GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FURTHER CONVECTION LATER TODAY, AS FURTHER
SHORTWAVE/WEAKNESSES ALOFT ROTATE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS OF TIMING, IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE A GOOD
SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY LEADING TO BETTER CLOUD COVER
AREA-WIDE AND IN TURN SLIGHTLY 'COOLER' TEMPS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
HOLD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN CHECK KEEPING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY AT BAY. LIKE TONIGHT'S CONVECTION, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. WPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ALONG A LINE FROM AEX TO LCH AND ALL AREAS EAST, WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA IS IN THE MARGINAL RISK. SIMILAR THINKING FOR FRIDAY'S
WEATHER, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DRIER, WITH THE MAIN RISK FOR ANY HEAVY
RAIN LOOKING TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS ACADIANA.
FINALLY BY THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD MERGING WITH THE WEST ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY DRIER, AND IN TURN WARMER, CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, WE WON'T DRY OUT AGAIN ALL TOGETHER WITH AT
LEAST SMALL TO MEDIUM POPS LINGERING EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE WIDESPREAD NATURE AND
INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THEREFORE,
TAMPERED DOWN THE RISK AT BPT AND LCH, WITH THE REMAINING SITES
CARRYING SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA THROUGH 12-14Z, WITH A LULL IN CONVECTION
THEREAFTER UNTIL SHOWERS AND STORMS START TO FIRE UP AGAIN THROUGH
PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ACADIANA, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL, WITH WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER NEAR ANY CONVECTION. WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER
THE WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO
WEAKEN. WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
55 TO 65 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page