225
FXUS64 KLCH 230539
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
DISCUSSION
06Z TAFS
AVIATION
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS PRESENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS.
STEADY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE COMING TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
JONES
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 917 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/
UPDATE...
AS OF 23/03Z, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE
CHARLES LINE, AS LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS BEING
FELT. THE RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THE DFW METROPLEX
AND WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
CONGEAL INTO A SOLID LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THAT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING SO REALLY DON'T EXPECT ANY STRONG CONVECTION OR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST, ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE GRIDS.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS
AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AT THIS HOUR WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED, MAINLY LIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOWER PRESSURES ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...
COMBO OF THESE FEATURES HAS LED TO A WARM/MUGGY/BREEZY DAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE SRN PLAINS/WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT SPREADING OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY OUT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH LOCAL
88DS DO SHOW SCATTERED STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA OUT
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND.
STILL LOOKING AT A SOGGY NEXT 18-24 HOURS FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, ALLOWING FOR A STEADY
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES/PASSES. SOUNDINGS
ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA...MAYBE A SMALL WINDOW LATE TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA WHEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST-TO-EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A DRIER FLOW ALOFT FILTERS OVER THE
REGION...PERHAPS A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS OVER EXTREME LOWER ACADIANA.
THE MAIN STORY BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE THE COLD AIR AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER, THEN PAST THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LINGER IN THE 40S FOR THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA.
MINS TOMORROW NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH OF
I-10...32-35 SOUTH EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
FOR FRIDAY LOWS ARE PROGGED MOSTLY IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS, ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 20S LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EXTREME NRN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. TODAY'S MODEL RUNS ARE
DISAGREEING ON A POTENTIAL SECONDARY BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...REGARDLESS, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL AS DRY WITH NO REAL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN FRONT OF IT.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT CROSSING SRN TX, MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF
BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY TURNING SRLY BY EARLY
SATURDAY, COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION. WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE, YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MARINE...
AN ELEVATED SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT
WHICH TIME, AN ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. ALL INHERITED
HEADLINES LOOKED GOOD WITH THE UPDATED WIND/WAVE GRIDS SO NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 43 48 30 / 50 100 100 0
LCH 71 46 50 34 / 30 90 100 0
LFT 70 56 60 33 / 40 50 90 0
BPT 71 44 48 34 / 30 100 90 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ455.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ455.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ432.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ435.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450.
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page