181
FXUS64 KLCH 201956 CCA
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
234 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH COOL
MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS EACH DAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 25 TO
35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
- NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT BROAD RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL US THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS,
LEADING TO LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS OVER OUR CWA. A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAS ALLOWED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY, WITH THE 18Z LCH RAOB REPORTING A PWAT OF
0.93 INCHES (UP FROM 0.41 INCHES AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY). SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY AND NOW SIT IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS WAVE IN OUR AREA, WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, SETTING UP AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
US AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR CWA IN A DRY, SUBSIDENT REGIME
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD, A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, REACHING THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP ANY GULF
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH LREF MEAN PWAT THROUGH THIS TIME
IN THE 0.6-0.7 INCH RANGE, AROUND 25TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO
CLIMATOLOGY. SO DESPITE THE WARMING TREND, IT WILL GENERALLY FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE THAN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS, WITH DEWPOINTS
SITTING IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NEAR 50 FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL LA TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE
COAST.
THE LARGE-SCALE OMEGA BLOCK LOOKS TO BREAK UP BY THE WEEKEND, BUT
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER OUR AREA, ALLOWING
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. AT THIS
TIME, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, EXPECT SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON
AND A WORSENING OF REGIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME PERIOD.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE NE TO E.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS A WAVE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF. WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL YIELD EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 KT WITH LOW SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
US WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND, WITH NO REAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED, WHICH
WILL ALLOW RH TO FALL TO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, OUT OF
THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED
EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND VERY DRY
FUELS DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...87
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