914
FXUS64 KLCH 162329
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
SURGES OF UP TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO NHC
DESIGNATING POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1. THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER LAND NEAR THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AT THIS
HOUR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO UNDERGO SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOVING BACK INLAND ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE OVERALL EXPECTED IMPACTS TO OUR REGION REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST THREAT AND IMPACT REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING RAINFALL RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
MOISTURE FROM THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. QPF TOTALS HAVE
EASED BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH MAXIMUM FORECAST
VALUES NOW CLOSER TO 10-12 INCHES COMPARED TO THE NEARLY 20 BEING
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. EVEN SO, A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE 15+ INCHES THROUGH THE EVENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT, GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40
MPH WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND STORM SURGE OF UP TO 4 FEET
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BOTH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NEARLY ALL OF LOUISIANA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SPIN UP
TORNADOES.
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TAKING THE DEEPEST OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. POPS AND QPF HAVE BOTH COME DOWN ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL
DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER A VERY SOGGY
REGION. BY THE WEEKEND, POPS REVERT TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A LULL IN CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD INLAND AROUND TO JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
ALONG WITH A ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO. AFTER MIDNIGHT, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE I-10 TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AS
WE APPROACH SUNRISE. REDUCTIONS IN VIS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH OUT MUCH OF TOMORROW AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH FROM THE GULF. IN ADDITION, APPROACHING
PTC1 WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KTS RANGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PUSH SEAS TO
8 TO 12 FEET WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-25
KNOT AND 6-8 FOOT RANGE RESPECTIVELY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL
FURTHER BY THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE 1. AWAY FROM STORMS, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WILL PREVAIL. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (40-50%) BY THIS WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074-252>254.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ073-
074-252>254.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LAZ241.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ615.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ616.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TXZ615.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-
472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...17
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