102
FXUS64 KLCH 201112
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TD2 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS AROUND
THE NORTHEAST GULF THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANE MON AND TUE IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING TD2. HIGH PRESSURE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE BY
A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, HITTING THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES
BY MIDWEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 112+F THIS WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I49 PORTIONS. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
QUITE A BIT HAS CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF MODELING DATA
COMING ACROSS THE FORECAST DESK. FOR ONE, WE NOW HAVE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (2) IN THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NOT ONLY SHOULD IT
STRENGTHEN INTO THE SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON, IT LOOKS TO
TAKE A FULL SCENIC TOUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THIS WEEK! MORE
ON THAT BELOW, BUT FIRST LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DAYS PRECEDING
TD2'S ARRIVAL.
TD2'S DEVELOPMENT AND OUTWARD REACHING ISOBARS HAVE WREAKED HAVOC
ON HIGH PRESSURE OVER SERN TX / LOUISIANA. THE SFC HIGH HAS
STARTED LOSING ITS GRIP IN THE REGION AND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A
SFC HIGH MAY NOT EVEN BE ANALYZED ALONG THE WEST GULF. NO FEAR,
THOUGH, AS THE UPPER HIGH LARGELY APPEARS UNSCATHED AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION FROM MONDAY TO THE MIDWEEK.
HEIGHTS WILL MAKE A JUMP WITH ITS ARRIVAL AND WITH MOISTURE STILL
FAR EAST WITH THE TD, THERE IS NO THERMAL LIMITER FOR TEMPS MONDAY
TO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL INCREASE BY A VERY NOTICEABLE MARGIN THESE NEXT 3
DAYS:
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY TO AROUND 100F TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL REFLECT THIS INCREASE AND AREA-WIDE
107 TO 112F WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS EACH DAY MARCHES ON.
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, UPPER HIGH IS SET TO STEER THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM INTO EAST TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL COME ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM,
BUT WITH DRY AIR INLAND AND UPPER HIGH EXTENDING TO THE COASTLINE,
WE WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GET MUCH RAINFALL INLAND WITH ITS
PASSAGE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD AT LEAST MOVE OVERHEAD TO HELP WITH
THE HEAT.
AS FOR TROPICAL IMPACTS, MAJORITY OF TROPICAL WINDS AND RAIN
SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO COASTAL WATERS AND EXTREME COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. THAT DOESN'T MEAN STRONGER GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS
CAN'T SNEAK SOME INLAND, IT JUST ISN'T VERY LIKELY.
WATCH OUT FOR THE HEAT IN THE MIDWEEK, AND DON'T LET THIS TD CATCH
YOU OFF GUARD. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE AND FOR THE PUBLIC TO
MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. JUST SOME LIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VIS AT KAEX FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND
BREEZIER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR EASTERN WATERS
WHERE SPEEDS MAY REACH 15-20 KT. EXPECT GENERALLY 15-20 KT WINDS AND
2-4 FT SEAS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS AFTER MONDAY. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, DUSTY
AIRMASS PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. AN IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS IS THEN ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY AS
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF,
CLEARING OUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIVING HUMIDITY BACK INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LARGELY STAY CLEAR OF THE REGION UNTIL PERHAPS
THURSDAY WHEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING NEAR THE
COASTLINE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ028-029-032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...27
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