009
FXUS64 KLCH 091117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
- A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE WEEK
BEFORE A WARMING TREND OVER NEXT WEEKEND..
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON MONDAY LEAVING BEHIND A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS.
IN THE NEAR TERM, FOG WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA
FOG OVER THE VERMILION BAY AREA MOVING INTO LOWER ACADIANA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT LOCATION. ELSEWHERE, FOG LOOKS
MORE PATCHY IN NATURE WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP
RADIATIONAL FOG IN CHECK FOR THE MOST PART.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ON MONDAY WITH PWAT PROGGED TO BE
NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. NOT
MUCH OF A CAP IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TO GO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF SOCAL IN THE EAST PACIFIC, WILL OPEN UP BY
TUESDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST IN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AND PUSH A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST
LIMITING ANY RAIN CHANCES, ALTHOUGH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY.
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY AS LATE AS THE EVENING HOURS. A 40+ LOW LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND PWAT IN
THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE, WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
CLOSE TO MOVING MAX AVERAGES ON SPC CLIMO. FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD GET
SHOWERS GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STORMS LIKELY CONGEALING INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PROJECTED CAPE IS DECENT WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, SO
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT FIRST INDIVIDUAL SUPER CELL TYPE ACTIVITY THEN
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ALSO, WITH THE HIGH PWAT AND MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 80 PERCENT, SOME PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT
CELLS MAY FORM THAT WILL PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AVERAGE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL IS LOOKING LIKE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES, WITH
REASONABLY HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 2.0 TO 2.50 INCHES RANGE.
STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO SOME MESOSCALE DETAILS NEED TO BE FINE
TUNED BEFORE THEN.
COOLER, DRIER, AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM A BRISK NORTH WIND ON THURSDAY WITH THE SEASONAL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS WARM UP
OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH
A MOIST AIRMASS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO LOW OVERCAST
SKIES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIC OF IFR/LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONCERN STARTING AROUND 09Z
AND LASTING UNTIL SUNSET.
MARINE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER
COOLER SHELF WATERS TO BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
BY TUESDAY THAT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WINDS BECOMING
QUITE BREEZY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60
PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 81 65 82 67 / 80 20 0 0
LCH 79 67 80 69 / 40 0 0 0
LFT 81 68 82 70 / 50 10 0 0
BPT 81 68 81 69 / 30 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>029-
031>033-044-045-055-074-142-143-152>154-242-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GMZ435-436-455.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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