392  
FXUS64 KLCH 171628  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1128 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE COMMITTED IN THE LATE MORNING  
FORECAST UPDATED. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH  
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BEING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE REGION.  
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF TX COUNTIES/LA PARISHES IN THE CWA WITH HEAT  
INDICES ALREADY BETWEEN 97-105F AS OF 11 AM AND EXPECTED TO PEAK  
IN THE 107-110F RANGE. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY  
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COASTAL SW LA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE  
GULF ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES NEAR 100F ALREADY AND EXPECTED TO  
PEAK IN THE 105-108F RANGE.  
 
OTHER FOCUS ON THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE LATEST  
THINKING IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
TONIGHT. INITIALLY, CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ISOLATED  
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SEAS-BREEZE COASTAL AREAS/ATCHAFALAYA  
BASIN. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS  
EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET, ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THIS  
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A W-E ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS  
CURRENTLY OVER SE OK AND S AR. CONVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH IS  
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NE TX AND N LA  
DURING PEAK HEATING. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE  
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION THIS  
EVENING. ACCORDINGLY, POPS DECREASE QUICKLY FROM NORTH (60  
PERCENT NEAR ALEXANDRIA) TO SOUTH (20 PERCENT FOR LAFAYETTE) LATE  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 
JRK  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
 
 
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING OF  
LOUISIANA WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS TIME. FURTHER TO THE  
NORTH IN ARKANSAS AN AREA OF STORMS IS PUSHING DOWN INTO  
MISSISSIPPI. MORNING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF AS DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING AROUND  
THE MID 70S ATTM.  
 
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN  
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL  
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LATE EVENING/ OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. AS  
A RESULT OF THIS BOUNDARY THE REGION IS MOVING INTO A WET PERIOD.  
 
FOR TODAY THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS  
AFTN TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW  
LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. LATEST PROJECTION HAS THE  
LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A NEG BUOYANCY AND PWATS  
AROUND 1.70 INCHES FOR TODAY. THE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE LAKES  
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL RANGE UP  
TO 109 DEGREES. INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE NEED TO TAKE BREAKS AND  
REMAIN HYDRATED FROM THE HEAT EFFECTS.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THAT WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH AND INTO  
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW.  
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME  
SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM WINDS. AFTERNOON PWAT WILL BE AROUND  
2.25 INCHES AND CAPE REACHING 1839 J/KG, STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE  
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME  
MINOR FLOODING WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  
 
THE STORMS TOMORROW WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR COOLS THE ATMOSPHERE.  
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
A DISTURBED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON  
SATURDAY, PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY  
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO  
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY, BUT BREAKS BACK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US AND ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN  
FLANK OF THE MIDWESTERN LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE REGION.  
 
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
WITH PWATS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES (OR ROUGHLY FROM  
THE 75 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT OF THE MOVING AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST  
PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY). THIS, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME  
HEATING, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DURING THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY  
FORCED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ANTICIPATED DURING THE  
DAYTIME, ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO  
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME A LITTLE  
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAK FRONT  
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT POPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND  
UPWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STALLED FRONT AND  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS  
SW AND S CENTRAL LA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX. DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WORKWEEK AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  
 
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE  
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST  
TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY, AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NE MEXICO OR S  
TX BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE  
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT  
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SE TX OR SW LA.  
 
24  
 

 
   
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
 
 
A DISTURBED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON  
SATURDAY, PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY  
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO  
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY, BUT BREAKS BACK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US AND ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN  
FLANK OF THE MIDWESTERN LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE REGION.  
 
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
WITH PWATS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES (OR ROUGHLY FROM  
THE 75 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT OF THE MOVING AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST  
PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY). THIS, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME  
HEATING, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DURING THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY  
FORCED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ANTICIPATED DURING THE  
DAYTIME, ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO  
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME A LITTLE  
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAK FRONT  
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT POPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND  
UPWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STALLED FRONT AND  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS  
SW AND S CENTRAL LA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX. DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WORKWEEK AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  
 
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE  
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST  
TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY, AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NE MEXICO OR S  
TX BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE  
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT  
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SE TX OR SW LA.  
 
24  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022  
 
SENT A TAF UPDATE JUST BEFORE 15Z. A W WIND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING  
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE S-SW FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AT  
KLCH AS THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVE INLAND AND THEN ELSEWHERE MID TO  
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM  
NORTHERN LA. A W-E LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FAR NE TX AND  
N LA THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE  
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, BUT COULD  
REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS  
WHY VCTS WAS ONLY MENTIONED FOR KAEX FOR A SHORT WINDOW FROM  
02-05Z.  
 
JRK  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH LOW SEAS WILL  
PERSIST OVER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO TODAY, INCREASING ON THURSDAY AND  
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR  
STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 99 75 89 73 / 10 60 80 70  
LCH 93 76 90 73 / 10 10 70 70  
LFT 94 76 90 74 / 10 20 80 70  
BPT 96 76 93 74 / 0 10 60 70  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>029.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-259-  
260.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...24/JRK  
LONG TERM....24  
AVIATION...JRK  
 
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