768
FXUS64 KLCH 061150
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
550 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS A WARMING TREND
TAKES PLACE TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- A WEAK COASTAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY WILL OFFER SCATTERED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS RESUMING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED OVER THE CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE
BROADER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE TX/LA GULF COAST. THIS MODERATING
PATTERN WILL ADVECT WARM, DRY AIR FROM CENTRAL TEXAS, SURGING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, A DRY FRONT WILL ALLOW COOLER SURFACE AIR TO POOL TOWARD
THE COAST. THE BRUNT OF THIS BRIEF CAA ARRIVES DURING THE DIURNAL
HOURS; CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE COOLEST VALUES EXPECTED EAST OF
I-49. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY, A FAMILIAR FEATURE—A
CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH—WILL STALL ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ANCHOR THE NORTHERN JET AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
AIR TO THE NORTH, WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRES BEFORE BROADENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COMBINED
SUBSIDENCE AND ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES
TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE LOCALLY WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW, ALLOWING FOR MARINE AND INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUCKLES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PHASE EAST OF THE RIVER,
CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INLAND WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN RAIN-
FREE. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH,
SEPARATING THE WARM/HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR TO
THE NORTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW OFF BAJA WILL BEGIN
MIGRATING ACROSS MEXICO, INCREASING SURFACE TROUGHING EAST OF THE
SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. POPS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS PRECIPITATION
EXITS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
8–15° ABOVE NORMAL, HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID-70S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MODEST WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICKUP TODAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE DAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN DUE WEST FRIDAY, BEFORE BECOMING VARIABLE SATURDAY. A
LONGER DURATION ONSHORE REGIME WILL ESTABLISH SUNDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES OF MARINE AND INLAND FOG
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY MONDAY WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARMER
DEWPOINTS OVER THE SEASONAL MINIMUMS OF THE NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 45% RANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT
WILL OFFER GREATER HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HEREAFTER BEGINNING
SUNDAY. RAIN IS NOT FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 42 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 73 46 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 73 45 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 75 48 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ472-475.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...64
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