656  
FXUS64 KLCH 192132  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
432 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST  
AREA MAINLY ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS  
HELPED REGAIN INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LEFT OVER COOL POOL  
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS IGNITED SOME STRONG  
CONVECTION WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE  
MAIN CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING MAINLY  
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON TUESDAY  
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AS SUSTAINED WINDS  
OVER 20 MPH COULD OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TIDES  
WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND SOME WATER PILING ALONG THE COAST.  
EARLY TIDE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDE LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY  
RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 FEET MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER WHICH WOULD  
BE IN COASTAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NEARING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING  
CRITERIA. MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO NORTHWEST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA SO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
AFTER TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS  
THAN 20 PERCENT EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
RUA  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE ONSHORE WINDS  
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR  
OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.  
 
RUA  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 71 89 73 90 / 10 20 0 10  
LCH 75 87 76 86 / 10 10 0 10  
LFT 73 88 75 89 / 10 20 0 10  
BPT 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 20  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC...07  
 
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