104
FXUS64 KLCH 242347
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR VERMILION, LAFAYETTE, ST.
MARTIN, IBERIA, AND ST. MARY PARISHES UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
(MEMORIAL DAY).
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE VERY WET PATTERN
CONTINUES.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE
OF THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MESOANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 1.3" OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO 2" OVER LOWER ACADIANA.
CAMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THIS DRIER AIR IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MOST OF THE
CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER ACADIANA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINS (PWAT APPROACHING 2 INCHES). THIS IS ALSO THE REGION THAT
HAS SEEN THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND AS SUCH
WOULD NOT NEED AS MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES THERE.
STILL WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. APART FROM THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUGGY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THE BROADER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH 500MB TROUGHING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES SET TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES THAT WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW-END FLASH FLOOD RISK, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CORRESPOND
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WITH LREF 50TH PERCENTILE PWATS RISING
TO 1.9 INCHES (ABOUT 90TH PERCENTILE) BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE
SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WPC CURRENTLY HAS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY PASSING
DISTURBANCES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION, BUT TIMING OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS LEAD TIME. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST A LOW END FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IS LIKELY TO EXTEND THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. NEAR SUNRISE
PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TERMINALS WITH MVFR
IMPACTS.
AFTER SUNRISE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR THE ACADIANA REGION. NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
ONSHORE AND INCREASE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INCREASING TO 10-
15 KT BY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
AREA. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. GIVEN
THE MOIST PATTERN IN PLACE AND INCREASINGLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ044-045-055-152>154-
252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...14
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