277
FXUS64 KLCH 182346
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW
- COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTH TEXAS, MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY TO OUR NW/N. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TREK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY AIR
LAGS WELL BEHIND. SO, WHILE THE BOUNDARY ITSELF EXITS THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER A WHILE LONGER, TAPERING OFF
NORTH TO SOUTH FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW.
18Z SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.54" WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO, WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS POSSIBLY INCREASING A BIT FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS ONSHORE FLOW PUMPS GULF MOISTURE INLAND. WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY, SOME OF WHICH MAY LEAD
TO AREAS OF FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES AND AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH ACADIANA.
FORTUNATELY, THIS LOOKS TO BE JUST A HEAVY RAIN EVENT, WHICH GIVEN
THE ONGOING DROUGHT IS DEFINITELY NEEDED, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
RAINFALL TAPERS OFF THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS DOWN INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. A COMBO OF BREEZY WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL BRING
ABOUT SOME MINOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TOMORROW, BUT THANKFULLY
TONIGHT'S EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FIRE DANGER MOSTLY
IN CHECK. MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN
TO AN E/SE FLOW OVERHEAD. A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BEGINS ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION, A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR SE TX AND PARTS OF SW LA TUES AND WED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
EXIST TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST, BUT AREAS OF
SHOWERS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SKIES CURRENTLY HAVE A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODIC REDUCED
VISIBILITY WITH IN THE VICINITY OF SHRA / TS. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED
TO VEER WEST THEN NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTS MAY BE
SLOW TO PICKUP, BUT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS
AREAS OF RA / TS MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS
EASING MIDAFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, APPROACHING GALE CRITERIA FOR THE WESTERN MARINE ZONES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER GULF WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING GULF WATERS
AND ALL LAKES/BAYS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE GALE
WARNING DROPS OFF AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR
ALL MARINE ZONES (EXCLUDING LAKES AND BAYS) THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THEREAFTER BUT ONLY BORDERLINE WITH SCA
CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15 KT, WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE SOUTH TX COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A
DRIER AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. BREEZY NORTH THE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-25KTS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR (MINRH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A GOOD SOAKING RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP MOST FIRE CONCERNS IN
CHECK THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. THIS DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY, BUT FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE LESSER AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, AROUND 5-10 KT.
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST STARTING TUESDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ450-452-
455-475.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ470-472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...30
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