508
FXUS64 KLCH 221702
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 20-35% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AS FAR AS UNCHANGING FORECASTS GO, THIS ONE COULD BE A
WHOLE LOT WORSE. A GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIR THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE NORTHEAST BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS.
WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY
AMIDST ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT DROPPING LOWS INTO THE
50S EACH NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR HAS EXPANDED THE
"EXTREME DROUGHT" DESIGNATION ACROSS MUCH OF CALCASIEU, BEAUREGARD,
VERNON, RAPIDES JEFF DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION REMAINS IN AN
"SEVERE DROUGHT" CATEGORY. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE AREAS BEING ELEVATED TO
"EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT" NEXT WEEK, THE HIGHEST CATEGORY OF DROUGHT.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME LIGHT, PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND FRIDAY.
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND FROM 4-9 FEET FROM 20 TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX BEGINNING TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE COMBINATION OF WORSENING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION AND
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE 20-35% RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE ENE. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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