593
FXUS64 KLCH 210551
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS OF 1245 AM, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR,
HOWEVER MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE
COAST. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN SOME AREAS, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING
PATCHY FOG FORM. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED,
COMMUTING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE DONE
CAUTIOUSLY.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT
WILL FOR THE NEXT DAY BEFORE IT RETROGRADES NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ISOLATED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A NEAR DAILY RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, ALLOWING THE MOISTURE RICH GULF AIRMASS TO MAKE THIS
REGION ITS NEW HOME. FORECAST PWATS WILL AT A MINIMUM BE AT OR
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WITH SOME DAYS LIKELY TO EXCEED THE
DAILY MAX. ALOFT, A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH.
THE EXTENDED MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BEAR WATCHING AS TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER TX, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN UPPER LOW TO CUTOFF
OVER ETX AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING REABSORBED INTO THE BROADER FLOW.
THE ONE BENEFIT OF THE CLOUDY AND RAINY PATTERN IS THAT IT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. MAXTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW
CLIMO NORMS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS, HOWEVER NOTHING TERRIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL PRESENT ON RADAR, HOWEVER MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY
FOG HAS FORMED AT A FEW SITES IN THE AREA. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY, REDUCED VIS WILL BE LIKELY.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS CIGS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR TO VFR. WINDS WILL
MAINLY PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND 5-15 KTS AND
SEAS AROUND 1-4 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL, AS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SEVERAL
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING IN RICH AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. AFTERNOON
MINRH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 70 PERCENT OR GREATER EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDE
WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...87
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