780
FXUS64 KLCH 150006
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ACADIANA FROM 11 AM THROUGH 7 PM SATURDAY
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING AFTERNOON
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 RANGE.
- NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HOT AND DRY IS THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SUMMED UP IN
ONE SENTENCE.
OKAY IF YOU'RE STILL CURIOUS, TAKE COOL SEAT, PREFERABLY IN AN
AIR CONDITIONED ROOM AND LET'S DETAIL OUT IT FURTHER. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH BROADLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. HUMID
AIR LIFTING INLAND HAS BEEN MIXING WITH THE LOW DRY LEVELS (SFC -
875MB) AS NOTED ON 14TH/18Z SOUNDING. HOWEVER, ALONG THE
ATCHAFALAYA, THIS INTRUSION OF MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO MIX UP HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MID AND
UPPER 90S, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED, AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, FOR PARISHES ALONG OR NEAR THE I-49 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
LOWER ACADIANA. SIMILAR STORY IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE FURTHER EXPANSIONS OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THEN GOING
FORWARD INTO THE NEW WEEK AS INTERIOR COUNTIES AND PARISHES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE 100F MARK FOR ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. FACTORING
THE FEW HOURS MINRH FALLS TO THE 45-55% RANGE, CRITERIA CAN EASILY
BE MET OR BORDERLINE OVER GREATER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE
DOES TRY TO BRING SOME COASTAL ACTIVITY INLAND, BUT GIVEN THE DRY
AIR ALOFT, MUCH OF THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED, ISOLATED, PULSE LIKE
SHOWERS THAT WON'T MUCH FURTHER FURTHER THAN THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BY MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ABOVE US
LOCALLY BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AND MIGRATE TOWARD THE SECONUS.
WE'LL STILL BE WELL UNDER IT'S INFLUENCE, BUT MAY SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE AND SHIFT OF DIURNAL WINDS TO HAVE MORE SW COMPONENTS.
CHANCES OF RAIN STAY BELOW 10% GENERALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HEAT RELATED IMPACTS
BEING THE UTMOST CONCERN. AS AN ASIDE, SOME OF THE GLOBALS MODELS
PINCH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THROUGH THE EASTERLY TRADES
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE FEATURE DOES NOT POSE ANY
TROPICAL CONCERNS, IT MAY BE "USEFUL" TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD IN HELPING CREATE SOME LOCALIZED FORCING NEAR THE COAST. AT
THIS TIME, ITS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WHAT MOISTURE WOULD BE THERE TO
WORK WITH. FOR NOW, COUNT ON A MAINLY DRY AND HOT FORECAST AS WE
STARTED OUT IN THE DISCUSSION.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
BREEZY, MIXED WINDS WITH A SOUTH VECTOR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL ROUGHLY
AN HOUR AFTER SUNDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPANDING ALOFT AND THUS,
EXPECT QUIET, CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL
EFFECTS WITHIN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT GROUND FOG JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY. ANY IMPACTS WILL DISSIPATE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. SOUTH
WINDS WITH OCCASSIONAL LOWER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED TO THE EAST.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FETCH IN PLACE OVER THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS, WHICH ALSO KEEPS SEAS LOW.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FILTER IN FROM THE CENTRAL GULF MAY INITIATE A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
PULSE LIKE AND GENERALLY WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
STRENGTHEN GREATLY HAMPER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION FROM TODAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AREA WIDE
AND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S OVER
THE COMING DAYS.THE COMBINATION WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. KBDI WILL RANGE 550-720, WITH THE HIGHER
VALUES LOCATED ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ028-029-032-
033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...11
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