194
FXUS64 KLCH 171807
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL COMBINE FOR WARM CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE
FOR RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL HOLD DURING
THIS PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR A DRY INVERSION ALOFT TO KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS FROM FORMING.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING A WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
MAIN CONCERN, AS IS USUAL IN THESE SITUATIONS WITH UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS AND COOLER GULF WATERS, IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TONIGHT IS A LITTLE TRICKY. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE STAYING UP FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, ABOVE 15 KNOTS, THAT
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP VISIBILITY IN CHECK. THE ON
CAVEAT IS RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DROP IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS, SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FOR RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME, JUST DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
IN ISSUING ANY ADVISORY RIGHT NOW.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ON SATURDAY, A SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WILL PUSH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
TIMING LOOKING LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AS
PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
OVER 70 PERCENT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MODEST AGAIN, AND ALSO
SHEAR AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, SO THIS MAY KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS IN CHECK, STILL TIME TO WATCH THIS AND
FIGURE OUT THE DETAILS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED THAT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR
LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE QUESTION IS LOW CEILINGS OR FOG. AT THE MOMENT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY UP ENOUGH THAT LOW
CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18/09Z.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. ON SATURDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BRING IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 55 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE
THE MOISTURE, NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 78 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 60 75 63 78 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 60 77 63 80 / 0 0 10 10
BPT 60 77 62 79 / 0 0 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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