813
FXUS64 KLCH 240548
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES WITH
MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 107 TO 115. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NEARER
TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- SCATTERED (30-60%) THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE (50-80%) AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED (30-50%) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY FELL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORDS, BUT STILL MAXED OUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S EVERYWHERE THAT WASN'T FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO SEE THE FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGED TO DEVELOP. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FALL BELOW 80 WITH CONSISTENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY WHICH
WILL AGAIN BE IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 107-115 WITH THE MOST INTENSE HEAT EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE THE RIDGING WILL BE STRONGER LIMITING
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER.
DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL OFFER SOMEWHAT HIGHER (30-60%)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HEIGHT FALLS FROM A TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. MAY PROVIDE SOME WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFTING TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL COME FROM STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ANOTHER
DAY OF AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE ONLY REAL HAZARD BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS FROM COLLAPSING STORM CORES. SOME SMALL HAIL ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS BETTER
MOISTURE AND WEAK TROUGHING WILL OFFER BETTER (40-70%) PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS ACADIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH MORE
LIMITED (20-30%) CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND VIRTUALLY
NONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT ON THE "HEAT DOME" RIDGE
FINALLY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WEST THURSDAY BECOMING CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH IT'S RETREAT, HIGHER MOISTURE AND
BROADER TROUGHING ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION PROVIDING THE FIRST HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THE AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY
ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW DAILY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AEX, LFT AND ARA BETWEEN 19-02Z.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER WEST WITH BPT AND LCH LESS
LIKELY TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM STORMS.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGHER MOISTURE AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN AND AROUND
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BREAKS DOWN. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
BRING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
KBDI VALUES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 530 TO 750 ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. DAILY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 40-
50% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. PERSONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. BURN BANS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST PARISHES AND COUNTIES BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
CONSULT YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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