064
FXUS64 KLCH 131724
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1224 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER.
- AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INCREASING WITH
THE DAILY HEAT RISK RISING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR OVER THE WEEKEND
AND NEARING EXTREME LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HAZARDS TO BE ISSUED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
- WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
LOOKING AT LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND GOES
PWAT IMAGERY, DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS MOVING IN. THEREFORE,
THE DAYTIME HEATING CU IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GROW INTO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. USUAL
SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL CONTINUE. A FEW SPOTS, ESPECIALLY NEAR MARSHY
AREAS, MAY BRIEFLY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 108F WHERE DEW POINTS
STAY UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. AT THIS POINT HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 108F ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY.
FOR TONIGHT, CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BRINGING ABOUT MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGH SURFACE HUMIDITY SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE.
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE A RATHER HOT ONE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
REGION.
AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THIS MAY HELP PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SEABREEZE. OTHERWISE, DRY, SINKING, SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY PLACE A LID ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LACK OF OVERALL CONVECTION WILL HELP AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS BRINGING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MUGGY
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE FORECASTING THE DAILY
DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOW MUCH MIXING THAT OCCURS AND HOW
MUCH IT LOWERS THE DEW POINT WILL BE THE FACTOR IN THE HEAT RISK. AS
FOR NOW, HEAT RISK LOOKS TO BE IN THE MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4) ON
FRIDAY AND HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 108 DEGREES.
SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY.
HEAT RISK IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL INCREASE INTO THE MAJOR RANGE (3
OUT OF 4) OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT NEARING
EXTREME LEVELS (4 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU STREAKS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING, HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS. WITH
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION, NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE CU.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY, AGAIN LOOKS SIMILAR WITH CU STREAKS DEVELOPING DURING THE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS BORDERLINE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN THE
MORNING.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS,
OCCASIONALLY MODEST AT NIGHT, AND LOW SEAS INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A
MINIMUM AT BEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES AS WELL AS INCREASE THE HEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER WITH INCREASING KBDI VALUES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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