071
FXUS64 KLCH 211149
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK, REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE
APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS A MOIST AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AMID A LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING CDFNT CURRENTLY NEAR
THE ARKLATEX. AREAS OF MARINE AND INLAND FOG, DENSE IN SPOTS,
DEVELOPED EARLIER SAT EVENING, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY FOR COASTAL SE TX/SW LA TO COMPLIMENT THE MARINE ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT. AREA VSBY OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SINCE
THEN HAVE REVEALED SOME VOLATILITY TO THE FOG, BUT HAVE ALSO
SHOWING A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION INTO ACADIANA, SO AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY FARTHER EAST HAS ALSO BEEN MADE. VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS MID MORNING OR SO,
BUT FOG IS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH,
WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING EWD WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES GENERALLY ZONAL. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED MSTR POOL, COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY, WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TODAY, WITH
SMALL RAIN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL
WASH OUT/RETREAT BACK NORTH ON MON, BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT TAKE HOLD. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS
POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
A SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE EAST/CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, KEEPING CONVECTION, AND ANY
POTENTIAL FRONTS, AT BAY WHILE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP
A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT SEVERAL MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAYS AND NIGHTS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TEMP PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
EACH NIGHT. IN ADDITION, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITHIN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF LA/EAST TX
REGION. ALSO TO NOTE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, THERE IS A WEAK BUT VERY PRESENT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING AND SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW
METROPLEX.
LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 15Z WHEN SUNRISE AND MIXING
CAN MIX OUT FOG BANK CONDITIONS. WHILE VIS SHOULD QUICKLY RAISE
TO IFR, LOW CEILINGS TO AROUND 1000 TO 2000 FEET WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SAG TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST,
MEANDERING UNDER VERY LITTLE GUIDING FLOW ALOFT. IN RESPONSE,
SCATTERED, VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND VERY ISOLATED,
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THUNDER WILL BE VERY ISOLATED, SO
ONLY VCSH WAS MENTIONED AT TERMINALS.
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN DEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THRU
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THIS MORNING CAN
BE EXPECTED. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTIONS OF VIS DOWN TO 1/2SM
AT ALL SITES AFTER 08Z.
11
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 57 75 56 / 40 10 40 10
LCH 78 63 75 59 / 40 20 40 10
LFT 78 63 76 58 / 40 30 30 0
BPT 78 62 75 61 / 20 10 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ044-055-
073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11
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