400
FXUS64 KLCH 081117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AS OF 1200 AM CDT, CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY QUIET WITH EXCEPTION TO
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS STREAMING ACROSS PARTS OF CWA. BOTH TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S, WITH HIGH RH VALUES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS UNDER BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. AREAS OF FOG AGAIN WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE REALM IF POSSIBILITY, HOWEVER DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA THE OTHER DAY IS SITTING
OVER THE GULF WATERS, HOWEVER IT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN RETROGRADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TODAY. ALONG WITH THIS, AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MX AND INTO SW TX.
PWATS ARE ALREADY PLENTY HIGH AS IS WITH THE SWIMMING POOL OF
MOISTURE STRADDLING THE ENTIRE GULF COAST; THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL
TAP INTO THIS, LEADING TO A WET MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN, AND WE ARE NOW ONLY
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON BOTH DAYS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED INTO
THE BROADER FLOW ALONG WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT. NEVERTHELESS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
EVERYTHING IS PUSHED OUT BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY, WITH THE CONDITIONS IT WILL BRING
BEING SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF US ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING FROM THEN AND INTO THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE FRONT HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT
IN CHECK BY OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN, ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THEY WILL
BE GENERALLY WITHIN 3 TO 8 DEGREES FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR
THIS TIME OF MONTH. A WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OUT OF
THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NE WINDS WILL
VEER SE DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTH GULF. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVERCAST WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTER A
FRONT AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NO
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MARINERS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN HAS HELPED DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...05
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