825
FXUS64 KLCH 161753
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE A LITTLE LATE FRIDAY WITH
MORE NOTABLE CHANCES DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING
WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND AS THIS OCCURS LIGHT EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE ADVECTING SURFACE MOISTURE INLAND. A
RIDGE ALOFT IS ALSO SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS OVER SOUTH TX.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TX
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA, HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE
WORKED BACK INTO THE REGION SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH
OF ANY PRECIP, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS WITH ONE OR TWO REACHING THE COAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.
THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
IN FULL SWING FRIDAY PUSHING IN GULF MOISTURE. AN ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SE TX, BUT
CHANCES ARE AROUND 10-15%.
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DRAW CLOSER BY
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH FORECASTED QPF
THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 0.25" OR LESS. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH END
EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN.
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORNING LOWS
MONDAY FALLING TO AROUND CLIMATE AVERAGES (MID 50S TO LOW 60S).
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EAST MONDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPS
INTO MID WEEK, HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT COOLER
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAKER FRONTS PASS THROUGH
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
TONIGHT INTO FRI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KTS. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES WILL RANGE
1 - 3 FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW
WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RESUMING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP RAISE RH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY,
MULTIPLE PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE ACROSS ACADIANA ALONG
WITH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE
FURTHER FRIDAY UNDER SOUTH WINDS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 61 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 30
LCH 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 50
LFT 65 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 40
BPT 70 86 71 87 / 0 10 0 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page