946
FXUS64 KLCH 211938
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
138 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
- A CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK INTO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER ACADIANA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM, RESULTING IN COOL, DRY, AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HAZARDS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS BOTH INLAND
AND MARINE AREAS. INLAND, VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
WILL DRIVE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHARPLY LOWER, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. COMBINED WITH
SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM AVOYELLES PARISH SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST, WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THESE
STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, PROMPTING
THE UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF MARINE ZONES. ACROSS
THE LAKES AND BAYS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES OVER SCTRL TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S, BUT POST
FRONTAL HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SETX AND CENLA, AND MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WHEN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
TOWARD MS, LIMITING WIND CHILL CONCERNS AND ALLOWING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO ACTUAL VALUES. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 20 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA, WITH LOWER BUT STILL NOTABLE PROBABILITIES
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A RAPID WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S BY MIDWEEK, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE INTO THE 60S
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY LIMIT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THE MID
70S, THOUGH THIS COOLING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER
ACADIANA. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS
NORTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING
IN SUSTAINED AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY
DRY POST FRONTAL AIR WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
20 PERCENT, WHILE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH IN
SOME LOCATIONS WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM AVOYELLES PARISH TO THE
COAST, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. ELEVATED WINDS HAVE ALSO RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 39 59 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 45 61 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 44 59 35 56 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 46 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ029-032-033-
045-055-153-154-253-254.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
LAZ033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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