203
FXUS64 KLCH 181126
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102 AND
112F. A HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST / CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO OFFER SOME BRIEF TROPICAL SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS, THERE IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EXTENDING WEST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER REGARDLESS OF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, IF
ANY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY WILL NOT ALLOW THE FEATURE TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA REGION.
OUR FOCUS RIGHT NOW IS THE INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS AMID THIS DRY FORECAST. LAST NIGHT'S 18TH/00Z SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATES FAIRLY DRY MIDLEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT GROWTH OF CUMULUS
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MID 90S. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE OR TWO
WHERE LOCATIONS MEET CRITERIA. BASIS THIS PACKAGE, DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MIDWEEK WEDNESDAY
THROUGH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THOSE WHO WORK LONG PERIODS
OUTDOORS OR FACILITATE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO HAVE PLENTY OF HYDRATION AND
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL
RANGE SOUTH TO WEST-SOUTHWEST, THUS LITTLE RELIEF WILL COME FROM
THESE SHALLOW BREEZES.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A WEAK
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SINK SOUTHWARD.
GUIDANCE IS FICKLE WITH CONFIDENCE ON ANY RAINFALL, HOWEVER,
PROVIDED THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING AVAILABLE, SOME BRIEF SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY OR GARDEN VARIETY POP UP SHOWERS MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME,
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PATCHY, VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG LIKELY ONLY A FEW FEET OFF THE
GROUND MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER VISIBILITIES UNTIL 13Z. RIDGING
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERING ABOUT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND, KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DROPPING RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. WHILE
THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL NOT BE "DRY" ENOUGH TO
ESCAPE HEAT HAZARDS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...66
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