025
FXUS64 KLCH 272322
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
MID WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOW 90S NORTH OF I-10
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTHERN 48 FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONCURRENTLY, A FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL ALSO BUCKLE NORTH ALONG THE
BORDER STATES WITH MEXICO. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY
LARGE JET MAX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG YET SMALL EMBEDDED
WAVES IN THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
LOCALLY, A SURFACE GRADIENT OF TROUGHING EXTENDS SSW OF THE LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY AND HOT-SANS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS CENLA- THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT DESCENDING TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL FORECAST STILL CALLS
FOR SIMILARLY HUMID AND HOT WEATHER GIVEN A SLOWDOWN EXPECTED WITHIN
THE UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SQUEEZED JET MAX BEGINS TO EXHIBIT PERTURBATIVE
FLOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA LEADING TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND AREAS OF SCATTERED PRECIP WILL HELP
TEMPER THE HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST, HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. CURRENTLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PAINTS
AN AREAWIDE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE PRIMED WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER, AGGRAVATING FACTOR IN QUESTION
WILL BE THE DEPTH OF ANY MID LEVEL INVERSIONS FROM CAPPING. OVERALL
THIS SETUP STILL REMAINS A LOW END RISK, BUT SEVERE WINDS AND/OR
HAIL ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY TO CONSIDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING AND TRANSITION
STATIONARY. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION, HOW THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
THE TIMING OF SURFACE WIND SHIFTS FROM CENLA TO THE TX/LA COAST.
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THEN TRANSITION EAST
LATE IN THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OFF SHORE. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE HOTTER LOW 90S AND UPPER
80S-TRENDING DOWN TO UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S.
THE NOW STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY HAS LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR
AGAINST OUR THE MARINE LAYER PADDED BY THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
SLOW, BUT DO EXPECT EITHER SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS THURSDAY IF NOT A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS. A SECONDARY TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE RIO GRANDE DEEPENS THE JET MAX TO THE GULF COAST
LEADING THE POTENTIAL OF AN ORGANIZED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING INTO SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. I DO WANT TO STRESS AGAIN,
TIMING IS SUBJECT TO SHIFT A LITTLE, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
GRAVITATED TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION SATURDAY AS THIS FEATURES RIDES
THE TX/LA/MS COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DO
DECREASE INTO SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD LEAVING LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SUNSET, WITH GUSTY SE WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, WITH POCKETS OF IFR DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE I-10 TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY REDUCTIONS IN VIS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME PATCHY BR
DEVELOPS. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW, ANY VIS REDUCTIONS WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY WHILE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. WINDS BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BY THE LATE MORNING AS
WELL, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25+KTS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, HOWEVER, POPS WILL BE
ELEVATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
HIGH.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...17
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