577
FXUS64 KLCH 272324
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EACH AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 30-60%.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
EAST CONUS AND PROVIDING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA. ALOFT, RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EAST
CONUS, PROVIDING A MORE W/SW FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS SE TX, MAINLY NOTICEABLE IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO OUR LA PARISHES AS WELL.
IN ADDITION, AREA RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
OVER THE HOUSTON REGION AND WHILE UNLIKELY, WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
SPREAD INTO HARDIN AND JEFFERSON CO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER WARM BUT DRY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCHANGED INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, A
PATTERN CHANGE FINALLY ARRIVES AS A COUPLE OF FEATURES
SIMULTANEOUSLY BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO HALLOWEEN WEEKEND. FIRSTLY, THE
REMNANTS OF TS VANCE IN THE PACIFIC WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS TX. AT
THE SAME TIME, GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE
PULLING A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THESE TWO MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERES WILL MESH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY, ALLOWING PWATS TO SURGE TO NEAR AND ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE (~1.69") FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS SAME GENERAL
PERIOD, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER THROUGHOUT SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE THIS WON'T BE A DROUGHT BUSTER, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1" OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THIS ~36 HOUR
PERIOD, ANY RAIN IS WELCOMED AT THIS POINT. IN ADDITION, NO
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK IS PRESENT BUT A STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT THE MOMENT.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF BY EARLY SUNDAY, THIS INFLUX OF
MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANG FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY, WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS HANGING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S (5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS) FROM FRI-MON NIGHT. AROUND THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE, WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT NEXT TUESDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND FOLLOWED BY A
NICE COOL DOWN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
BPT MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRB.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SW
TODAY, OCCASIONALLY CAUSING CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH BREEZY E TO ESE WINDS. WINDS
RELAX OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG AT LCH NEAR SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS. A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES RETURN AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES
IN THE 40-60% RANGE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW AND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE. WHILE THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO PUT MUCH OF ANY DENT IN THE DROUGHT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A WETTING RAIN. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 50% EACH
DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...05
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