881
FXUS64 KLCH 090513
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. A RRED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION DUE TO
HURRICANE ISAIAS. PWATS HAVE FALLEN FROM 1.62 INCHES ON THE 18Z
SOUNDING ON WEDNESDAY TO 0.62 INCHES ON THE 18Z SOUNDING ON
THURSDAY. THIS PLACES PWATS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND IS ONE
OF THE REASONS WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. THE DRY AIR THAT HURRICANE ISAIAS IS PULLING INTO OUR
REGION AND CAUSING THE AIR TO DRY MORE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. THIS SET UP WILL SEVERELY LIMIT OUR
RAIN CHANCES, WITH POPS STAYING BELOW 10% THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR
OUR REGION THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AFTER LANDFALL LATE FRIDAY, ISAIAS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST,
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE STORM. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, RAIN CHANCES LOW,
AND SKIES CLEAR. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
BACK INTO THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND THE MID 90S FARTHER
INLAND. THE DRY SPELL WILL START TO CHANGE AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN
FROM THE WEST COAST AND PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TIDES DUE TO STORM SURGE FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BE BETWEEN
1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE MHHW, WITH THE HIGHEST LEVELS EXPECTED NEAR
CALCASIEU AND SABINE PASSES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OBSERVATIONS AT EUGENE ISLAND (KEKE) HAVE INCLUDED MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS FOR MARINERS UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN ISAIAS MOVES ONSHORE. WAVES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 9 TO
11 FEET, WITH HIGHER WAVES IN THE EASTERN WATERS CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE STORM. OVER THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE,
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 4 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
YESTERDAY SAW MULTIPLE WILDFIRES, WITH ONE IN VERNON PARISH
REQUIRING MULTIPLE FIRE DEPARTMENTS TO CONTAIN. REPORTED FIRE
BEHAVIOR TODAY INCLUDED CROWNING OF TREES AND AGGRESSIVE SPREAD.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND INLAND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THURSDAY, AS MINRH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S TO UPPER 20S
WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.
KBDI VALUES ARE STILL ELEVATED BETWEEN 600 AND 750 ACROSS THE
REGION. SUBSIDENCE FROM ISAIAS, ALONG WITH THE WRAP-AROUND
NORTHEAST FLOW, WILL PUSH MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ027>032.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ073-
074-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ259>262.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ615.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ435-436-450-
452-470-472.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ455-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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