554  
FXUS64 KLCH 312343  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN  
PRIMARILY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LFT, ARA, LCH AND  
BPT THRU 03Z. OTHERWISE, AREA COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO, AND THIS FEATURE  
WILL BE ADVANCING INTO TEXAS MONDAY. LOW HAS RAMPED UP PWAT  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 2  
INCHES. ACCORDINGLY WILL BE MAINTAINING VCSH GOING THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL THEN BUMP UP FOR THE  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS  
TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AEX REMAINING DRY. OTHERWISE,  
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE BUT ALL OF THE MID AND  
UPPER LEVEL VARIETY, THUS VFR CONTINUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT  
EASTERLY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...  
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FOR MONDAY, WEAK UPPER  
TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS  
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SURFACE SEABREEZE FOCUS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. ACTIVITY AGAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER  
SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S  
WHICH ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE  
POPS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE BAY OF  
CAMPECHE. THROUGH FRIDAY, EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING  
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER RIDGE  
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING DAILY CONVECTION WITH  
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATE  
THIS WEEK, PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR  
2.5 INCHES WHICH COULD BRING AN EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT. OVERALL,  
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.  
 
MARINE...  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH  
ITS RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.  
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW WITH SEABREEZE  
ORGANIZATION ALONG THE COAST LIKELY EACH DAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK  
AND THIS WEEKEND, BELIEVE TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL  
REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS AND EVOLUTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE  
SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 65 87 67 90 / 0 10 10 20  
LCH 71 87 71 89 / 20 20 20 20  
LFT 71 88 72 90 / 10 20 10 40  
BPT 72 85 72 88 / 30 30 10 10  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...23  
 
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