791
FXUS64 KLCH 091803
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALL HAZARDS,
STRONG WINDS, TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
- MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS OVERNIGHT.
- LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MAY CAUSE SOME NUISANCE
FLOODING IN THE LOWER ACADIANA REGION.
- MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU NEXT WEEK. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE WILD FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THRU MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN EERILY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AM. THE SKY HAS BEEN RATHER CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
70S TO AROUND 80 ALREADY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS MEANS OUR ATMOSPHERE
IS THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED FOR WHEN STRONGER SHEAR DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 18Z RAOB IS OFF THE GROUND AND HAS SAMPLED
A STRONG EML WITH CAPPING INVERSION AT JUST OVER 700 MB. THIS HAS
THE LOOK OF A "LOADED GUN" SOUNDING AND COULD POINT TO EXPLOSIVE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AS THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOW SET TO DEVELOP, AND ARE
ALREADY DOING SO: A WIDE BAND OF STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST GOING UP
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TO RAPIDES PARISH AND THEN AN AREA OF
DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE TO VERMILION PARISH WHICH WILL
MOVE INLAND. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THESE FEATURES ARE INITIALIZING
NOW BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ELONGATED STORMS WITH
RAPIDLY GROWING UPDRAFTS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF TYLER COUNTY
WITH THE BAND OF THE CONVECTION AROUND BATON ROUGE GETTING THE SAME
LOOK. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THESE STORMS,
HOWEVER, FLOW SHOULD CARRY THEM NORTH OF OUR BORDER BY 1 PM.
MY MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CELLS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THEY ARE MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS PRIMED TO 2500 TO
3000 SFC CAPE (FAR MORE THAN EXPECTED) WITH 0-3 KM SRH EXPECTED TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS. AS THESE CELLS
INTRUDE INLAND, THEY WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY FOR RAPID
ORGANIZATION INTO DOMINANT CELLS (0-6 KM BULK SHEAR > 50 KNOTS)
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS WELL AS
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
KEEP YOUR HEAD ON A SWIVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE
INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR A RATHER ZEALOUS OVERACHIEVEMENT ON THE
CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE EAST OF HWY 165. STORMS TO
THE WEST WILL BE UNDER PRIMARILY PARALLEL FLOW, KEEPING THEM IN A
MORE LINEAR FASHION. DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING SEGMENTS
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS WEST OF 165 UNTIL THE LINE CAN SWEEP
THROUGH.
THE SHOW BEGINS ITS END WHEN MAIN TROF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS EJECTS NORTH, FORCING EXITING WITH IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THAT SAME UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO EXPAND WEST TO EAST. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA WILL ALSO BE MOVING WEST TO EAST ABOUT
THIS TIME (10 PM ISH TO THE WEST, SWEEPING EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LA AROUND MIDNIGHT), CONGEALING ANY REMAINING STORMS ALONG ITS EDGE
AS IT GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED ROTATING SEGMENTS WILL BE A
HAZARD, BUT WITH WANING INSTABILITY, THIS LINE SHOULDN'T CAUSE TOO
MUCH HEARTBURN.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FOR THE LONGTERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY WITH A VERY MILD
TEMP MODERATION ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH IN THE MIDWEEK BRINGING COOL TEMPS BACK AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ALL MODES OF HAZARDS POSSIBLE. NOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING, PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL STREAM FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
REGION, OCCASIONALLY PASSING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND REDUCING
VIS/CIGS. THESE REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED, BUT THEY
MAY BECOME FREQUENT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES A BIT. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA, ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF STORMS THAT
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE 03-10Z TIMEFRAME
ROUGHLY. THIS LINE WILL BRING FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN VIS/CIGS THAT
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION,
WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TO N BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE VOLATILE NEAR TO THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WATERSPOUTS AND MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY AM AND HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE.
EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND VERY ELEVATED SEAS THRU AT LEAST MID DAY
SUNDAY.
WINDS DIMINISH ON MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN VARIABLE THRU THE MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
VOLATILE NEAR TO THUNDERSTORMS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE DRY
GRASSES AND VEGETATION TO BURN. QUICK DOWNPOURS WITH RUNOFF CAN BE
EXPECTED, NOT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.
STRONG NORTH WINDS DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY AS A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. FIRE WEATHER WILL
POSSIBLY BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE SUSTAINED AT AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES 25 TO
30 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND AIRMASS START TO MOISTEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 57 65 38 / 80 90 40 0
LCH 78 61 67 42 / 60 90 50 0
LFT 78 64 70 43 / 80 90 70 0
BPT 79 58 66 41 / 60 90 30 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ430-432-435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ455-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17
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