240  
FXUS64 KLCH 250300  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
900 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
NO MAJOR ISSUES TONIGHT, APART FORM THE VARIOUS FIRES ONGOING  
AROUND THE CWA SINCE THIS AFTERNOON, MOST OF WHICH HAVE DIED DOWN  
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ONLY UPDATE TONIGHT WAS TO ADJUST  
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WHERE OBS ARE RUNNING  
QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECASTED TEMPS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WON'T  
COOL DOWN NICELY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO ISSUES/UPDATES TO  
REPORT.  
 
17  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
SUNNY AND WARM ACROSS THE AREA WITH SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED/AG  
BURNS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS MADE FOR A  
VERY DRY DAY, WITH RHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND TWENTIES.  
 
HEIGHTS RISE A BIT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE  
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. WILL  
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST. WITH A TIGHTENING SFC  
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY WILL FEATURE AN H5 RIDGE  
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST SPREADING INTO THE NE GOM. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S INLAND WITH  
MIDDLE/UPPER 70S COASTAL.  
 
THEREAFTER, THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO AWAKEN WITH A FRONTAL  
BNDRY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY KNOCKING TEMPS  
BACK INTO THE 60S/70S. PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT AT  
THIS TIME DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH AND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
 
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MUCH WETTER WITH DECENT 72HR PROBS OF  
GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN IN THE 20-40% RANGE. PROBABILITIES RISE  
UNTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE ADDITIONAL  
DISTURBANCES BEYOND DAY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CLIMATE  
PREDICTION CENTER SHOWING A LEAN TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIP IN THE  
6-10/8-14 DAY TIME FRAME. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS  
SYSTEM, BUT IT COULD BE A RATHER WET WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AND NO  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE  
SMOKE AT BPT/LCH FROM NUMEROUS GRASS AND MARSH FIRES ACROSS THE  
AREA ONCE THE NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WE  
EXPECTING VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS AFTER 01Z. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS  
AROUND 8-10 KTS BY 15Z SUNDAY, AND BECOMING STRONGER FROM THE  
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY 21Z.  
 
08/DML  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED ON THE CWF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY  
MORNING AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT. SCEC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AND  
LINGERING THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WHILE SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF  
THE QUESTION AT THIS TIME FOR AT LEAST A SMALL PART OF THAT TIME  
FRAME. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NRLY AND INCREASE WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
25/78  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX  
THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RH RECOVERY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ONE EXCEPTION  
WILL BE NORTH-CENTRAL LA, WHERE RH COULD BE SLOW TO RECOVER AND ONLY DROP  
INTO THE 60% RANGE.  
 
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND BECOME BREEZY. WHILE THIS WILL  
BRING IN HIGHER RH VALUES, AFTERNOON MINS WILL STILL RANGE FROM 27-35% INLAND.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. THEREAFTER, DAILY  
MIN RHS ONLY DROP INTO THE 50% RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH  
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.  
 
VEGETATION IS IN THE GREEN-UP OR LEAF OUT PHASE, BUT AREAS OF DRY  
DEAD/DORMANT GRASS AND SHRUBS REMAIN. THESE SOURCES WILL CONTINUE  
TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE SPREAD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
AND BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASES IN RH BY WEDNESDAY WILL  
LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 45 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0  
LCH 51 75 58 75 / 0 0 0 0  
LFT 48 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 0  
BPT 51 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...17  
LONG TERM....78  
AVIATION...08  
 
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