528
FXUS64 KLCH 141742
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL LIMIT
DAILY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (20-30%) THIS WEEK.
- SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WILL LOWER HEAT INDICES AND MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK, THE SUBSIDENCE FROM WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BELOW NORMAL (20-30%) AND AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE. THERE WILL BE
AN UPWARD BUMP IN POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE CARRYING
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSITS THE REGION FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ACT AS
SOMETHING OF A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT ADVECTING IN SOME DRIER AIR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLE IN THE
FORM OF A DISTINCT DROP IN HEAT INDEX EVEN IF AFTERNOON HIGHS
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. NOT PREPARED TO CALL IT A
FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN YET, BUT ANY BREAK IN THE OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST WELCOME.
A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP BY NEXT WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ITS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE CONTINUING INTO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A NONTROPICAL
FEATURE WITH NO REAL SURFACE REFLECTION SO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
ISN'T EXPECTED, BUT IT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES MARKEDLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER CU WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND IMPACTS TO TERMINALS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. THEREFORE,
REMOVED THE VCTS MENTION AT ALL SITES.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CALM, WITH SEAS AROUND 1 FOOT AND WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS TODAY
AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
GULF FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A STRONG FETCH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS TO
UP TO 8 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR SIMILAR HEADLINES STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (20-30%) THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES COMING ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRANSITING THE REGION. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING
EASTERLY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUSH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30-50% RANGE WITH WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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