195
FXUS64 KLCH 030526
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- IN THE WAKE EDOUARD, A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AMID TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
- WHILE HIGHS GRADUALLY RECOVER TO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, AN UNSETTLED MOISTURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TO REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE REMNANTS OF TD EDOUARD CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS
TONIGHT, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIED OFF AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING,
HEAVY, PERSISTENT RAINFALL WAS ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UP UNTIL
JUST RECENTLY, WHICH HAS LEAD TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
ACROSS OUR SE TX COUNTIES. THANKFULLY THINGS ARE CALM FOR NOW, BUT
CAMS GUIDANCE UNFORTUNATELY DOES DEPICT CONVECTION RAMPING UP ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON I'VE DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 18Z.
LOOKING AT THE BROADER SCALE, A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A PERSISTENT FETCH OF EXCESSIVE
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO SURGE TO NEAR AND ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE (~2.12") AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND STAY
NEAR THE 2.00" RANGE UNTIL MONDAY. THEREFORE, WITH THE HELP OF THE
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ANY TOUCH OF DAYTIME HEATING IT WON'T TAKE MUCH
TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OFF EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED
POPS, THE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH COMBINED WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO REACH
INTO THE MID 100S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
INITIALIZE ACROSS SE TX BY MID MORNING AND S LA BY MIDDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
BUT ANY STORMS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINALS COULD CAUSE BRIEF
DISRUPTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
LIGHT MAINLY SE TO S WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS WELL, AS A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
DESPITE RAINFALL FROM TD EDOUARD, PARTS OF THE AREA REMAIN IN A
DROUGHT. FURTHER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE OVERHEAD. MINRH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM THE 50 TO 70% RANGE EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-261-262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page