421
FXUS64 KLCH 041929
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY EXPECTED TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREDOMINATES OVER OUR CWA TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEGUN TO CLIMB IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT ARE STILL ON THE DRIER
SIDE, SITTING GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND HIGH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES TODAY, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY.
THIS SOUTHERLY REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN BOTH
SURFACE AND TOTAL COLUMN MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S AND PWAT
VALUES APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING
IN THE MORNING HOURS WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO BRING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A STRONG CAP AT 850-900 MB WILL KEEP ANY
CONVECTION SHALLOW BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OF RAIN.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS 50TH PERCENTILE
PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.0 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WHICH WOULD BE WELL IN EXCESS OF THE DAILY MAXIMUM MOVING
AVERAGE AND ON PAR WITH AN EARLY SUMMER TROPICAL AIRMASS. THE
RESULTING ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEARING 50 KT WILL LIKELY YIELD AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPPING AT AROUND 850 MB THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, STRONGEST IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHICH
WOULD WORK TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT STILL
COULD SEE ACTIVITY FORM FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN A DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTOR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, THOUGH THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LEAD TIME.
SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER IN A MARGINAL
RISK (1/5).
THE OTHER THREAT TO KEEP IN MIND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, AND WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. NBM ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY RANGES FROM
AROUND A QUARTER INCH ALONG THE COAST TO 1.5 INCHES AROUND CENLA.
FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL AND TIMING OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS THIS TIME PERIOD COMES INTO HIGH-
RES MODEL GUIDANCE RANGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH OVER THE GULF THURSDAY, LIKELY
KEEPING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY'S VALUES. THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS POINT, AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF RETREATS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
AT THIS POINT, WOULD ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL EASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL EXPECT MOST TERMINALS TO KEEP AT LEAST A LIGHT CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. CLOUD BASES
BEGIN TO LOWER TOMORROW MORNING, BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR WITHIN THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. CHANCES OF LIGHT VCSH DOES
INCREASE DURING LATE MORNING(05TH).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A
TRANSITION TO OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT WILL BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL START TO TURN BACK
ONSHORE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SPRINKLE OF
RAIN TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DROP IN
HUMIDITY TO SOME DEGREE, BUT AFTERNOON RH SHOULD STILL REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT RESULTING IN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...30
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