522
FXUS64 KLCH 052330
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD (70-90% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
- FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
- SCATTERED DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY FROM
LABOR DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WITHIN A VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE RADAR IS GRADUALLY BECOMING INFECTED WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF METEOROLOGICAL MEASLES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP IS REACHED AND INITIATION GETS UNDERWAY. AIDING IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. KLCH 00Z RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING OBSERVED A
PWAT OF 2.1 WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS STICKING AROUND. AS SUCH, ANY OF THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF NUISANCE STREET FLOODING. AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INCLUDING PARTS OF TYLER,
HARDIN AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES, WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MARKED DIFFERENCE NOTED IN FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PROGGED TO WASH
OUT BY THIS EVENING, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, WILL SPELL THE DEMISE OF ALL, BUT THE MOST TENACIOUS
STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER (20-30%) SUNDAY AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING JUST NORTH OF
THE REGION SINCE LAST WEEK EDGES SOUTH OFFERING SOME SUPPRESSION.
THE MORE EXTENSIVE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
FROM LABOR DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SMALL PERTURBATIONS
INTERMITTENTLY ALLOWING IT TO STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALLOWING FOR DAILY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD (30-70%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS LOWER CENLA AT THIS HOUR. STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT
OF A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK WAVE MOVING
OVERHEAD. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS SUNDOWN WILL CUT OFF MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
AVAILABLE. ANOTHER WAVE OF WEAK BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA IN THE HOURS JUST AFTER SUNRISE, THE
FINAL HURRAH OF THIS WAVE, WHICH COULD SEE IMPACTS TO THE LOWER
ACADIANA TERMINALS. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY, PROB30 GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED AT LFT AND ARA FOR -TSRA THROUGH 2Z.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TOWARDS CALM AND MUGGY WITH AREAS
OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVERHEAD IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OWING TO
THE CALM CONDITIONS THRU SUNRISE AND THEN TO A QUIETER DAY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SE TO S BY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH MORE ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. FEWER STORMS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DEVELOPMENT. DAILY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. RAIN FROM
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD HAS PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
REMAIN IN ONGOING DROUGHT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...11
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