157
FXUS64 KLCH 010550
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EASTERLY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME COULD PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WATCH OUT FOR THOSE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAR
THUNDER ROAR, THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY IF OUTDOORS
FROM THE HEAT, REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR IN AN AIR CONDITIONED PLACE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE EVENING FIREWORK ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH REGIONAL UPPER AIR ANALYSIS,
SHOW THE RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER
THE REGION IS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS AN
AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND
HELP ENHANCE DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES AND OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
SPC CLIMO ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 12K FEET. MUCAPE
VALUES ARE ALSO DECENT BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WITH VALUES PROGGED BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 J/KG. THEREFORE, SOME HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS, TO GO ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. ALSO, WITH THE
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER, HIGH CAPE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS
AS THE STORMS DEVELOP OR OUTFLOWS COLLIDE WITH THE SEABREEZE.
THE HREF AND REFS SHOWING SOME DECENT PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A HOUR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH, HOWEVER PROBS SHOW A 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER
2 INCHES AND 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 3 INCHES, EVEN A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER 5 INCHES OVER LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE, A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OR AT LEAST A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LAKE CHARLES TO OPELOUSAS LINE.
AS FOR THE HEAT, LIKE WHAT HAPPENED ON TUESDAY, EXPECT DEW POINTS TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S DURING MAX HEATING AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND IT AND SOME WHAT OF A WEAKNESS
ALOFT. THEREFORE, DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY AGAIN WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BEFORE EVENING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES (FIREWORKS) TAKE PLACE.
THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. DAILY AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX
RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK
WHICH IS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4, AND MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
THEREFORE, OVER THE HOLIDAY, WATCH OUT FOR THE LIGHTNING DURING THE
DAYTIME, HEAR THUNDER ROAR GO INDOORS, AND TAKE IT EASY WITH THE
HEAT.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE NOTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN A DAILY DOSE OF DIURNAL
AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY
SEE AN EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS, IS KAEX WHERE SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRING ABOUT A PERIOD OF MVFR BETWEEN 01/11-
13Z.
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH WILL MOVE UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THE MOMENT, ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KBPT WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS IN
THEIR VICINITY AFTER 01/19-20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY 02/02Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER THEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE
STORMS, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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