072
FXUS64 KLCH 130539
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1239 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD
POSE A FLOOD RISK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA EACH OF THE LAST THREE MORNINGS AND SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A BETTER THAN 60% CHANCE OF IT
OCCURRING AGAIN THIS MORNING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. GIVEN BOTH THESE
PROBABILITIES AND PERSISTENCE, CONTINUED TO CARRY PATCHY FOG WORDING
THIS MORNING. WHILE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN'T BE RULED
OUT CLOSER TO THE COAST, PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWER
WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL
FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE GULF. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SLOWING THIS FRONT AS IT REACHES THE COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE, A SLUG OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WILL AID IN
DRIVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 2.25+ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HIGH
RAINFALL RATES BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO, BUT THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD STILL DROPS 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE RANGING
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES. IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WARM RAIN
PROCESS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A LARGE PROPORTION OF
THOSE TOTALS OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WPC HAS
MAINTAINED IT'S SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHT RISK CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF
ACADIANA INTO TUESDAY. RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING IS THE MOST LIKELY DIRECT IMPACT AS EVEN THE BEST DRAINAGE
WILL STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE COPIOUS RAINFALL. ON THE UPSIDE,
OVERCAST SKIES AND PLENTIFUL PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL LOSE ITS STRUCTURE AND
DISSIPATE AS THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE REGION TAKING SOME OF THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS OVERALL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS HIGHS AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR
90. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE RETREATING
UPPER TROF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS EXPECTED AT THIS RANGE, GUIDANCE
IS VERY DIVERGENT ON THE PATH OF THIS LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE. THIS TRACK WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN INDICATING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND AEX WHICH HAS SEEN FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE EACH OF THE LAST THREE MORNINGS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING PATTERN, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 11-13Z
AT AEX. WHILE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE BY
13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR,
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-
4 FEET WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE COAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE, IN
TURN, TO 3-5 FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WINDS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAILING. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE
COAST. THIS FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, BUT IT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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