881
FXUS64 KLCH 261644
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- CHANCES FAVOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 25-35%
- ELEVATED RISKS FOR A RAPID SPREAD IN WILDLAND FIRES WILL OCCUR
ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS, HOWEVER, CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
IT WAS AN INCREDIBLE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF
LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTED IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SPREADING HIGH LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
LONG WAVE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WHILE BROAD RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL FACILITATE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
WE COULD GET A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN BY SATURDAY AS MOISTURE AND
LIFT FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST ORGANIZED RISK FOR STORMS FOR THE COOL
SEASON. INCREASING INSTABILITY WITHIN A SHEARED AIRMASS COULD
BRING SOME ORGANIZATION TO ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ON SATURDAY THAT
MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND AI ALONG WITH THE
PENGU A.I. MODELS HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW END SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SATURDAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SATURDAY'S WAVE EXITING THE REGION THAT NIGHT
LENDING TO DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT FAIR WEATHER VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ABOVE LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS.
CHANCES DO NOT FAVOR ANY LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SAFE TRAVELS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MARINES ZONES. ONE TO FIVE FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT. WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK, CHANCES FAVOR LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
FIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR ON AN AFTERNOON BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO
A DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE. CHANCES DO NOT FAVOR RED FLAG CRITERIA ON ANY DAY THIS WEEK
DUE TO WIND SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR A RAPID SPREAD IN WILDLAND FIRES.
KBDI VALUES STILL RANGE FROM 650 TO NEAR 800 ACROSS THE PINEY
WOODS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...CRAMER
AVIATION...CRAMER
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