416
FXUS64 KLCH 301134
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F.
- THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
PERSISTENCE IS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT
TERM AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. DESPITE THIS, A SLIVER OF
HIGHER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WILL OFFER A LOW END CHANCE (20%) FOR A COUPLE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF US, THE HEAT REMAINS ON WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-112 RANGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED WEST WITH THIS PACKAGE TO NOW INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LARGELY
UNIFORM THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE FINALLY RETREATS WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A RARE WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. GUIDANCE IS VERY
SPLIT ON WHETHER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE COAST AND EVEN
IF IT DOES, THE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL, HOWEVER, INCREASE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING THE
FIRST APPRECIABLE RAINS TO MOST OF THE REGION IN OVER A WEEK. AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT AND DISSIPATES, A WEAK GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MAX HEAT
INDICES FROM 100-105.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
ONCE AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY HUMID AIR MASS, SOME PATCHY
FOG HAS FORMED AT THE TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 30/14Z.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN CONTROL, NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TODAY AND ANY CLOUDS OR CEILINGS
THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT TO NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH
THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD DEVELOP
SUNDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...07
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