761
FXUS64 KLCH 271133
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED TODAY INTO NEXT
WEEK CAUSING MOISTURE TO INCREASE, LEADING TO DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVERHEAD TODAY. ALOFT, RIDGING OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PROVIDING DRY AIR AND A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY
WHILE SHIFTING OFF TO THE WEST A BIT, WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NE CONUS BEGINS TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD IN ITS ABSENCE. THIS
WILL ESTABLISH A DRY NW TO N FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
NEAR ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPS CONVECTION IN
CHECK, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE BY
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR A SLOW BY STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS.
WEDNESDAY BRINGS A TRANSITION TOWARDS A WET PATTERN THAT WILL LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES WORK TOGETHER TO
BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SW MERGES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO THAT WILL BE MOVING NEWRD ACROSS MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THESE FEATURES MERGE INTO ONE LARGER
UPPER LOW THEY WILL SLOW DOWN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED OVER
WEST TX BY THURSDAY, LINGERING THERE INTO SATURDAY WHILE SLOWLY
BROADENING OUT INTO A TROUGH. AS THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS TO OUR
WEST, IT WILL KEEP A SWATH OF EXCESSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR OUR SE TX COUNTIES AND AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE ELSEWHERE FROM
LATE WED THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THURS THROUGH SAT. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SE TX, WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS OVER ACADIANA. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR SE TX COUNTIES ON WED, WITH
FURTHER EROS LIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED FOR THURS AND FRI OVER THE
COMING DAYS. FINALLY BY NEXT WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DROPPING OUT OF CANADA SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
WITH FEW TO SCT FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO BRISK
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH SEAS REMAINING CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 1-2 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. BY MID WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A PATTERN CHANGE, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MONDAY HOWEVER,
THE AIR MASS WILL ONLY MODIFY SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 PERCENT TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHILE RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...66
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