656
FXUS64 KLCH 192132
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
432 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
HELPED REGAIN INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE LEFT OVER COOL POOL
FROM THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS IGNITED SOME STRONG
CONVECTION WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING MAINLY
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE BREEZY ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY BEING ISSUED AS SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 20 MPH COULD OCCUR. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TIDES
WELL ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND SOME WATER PILING ALONG THE COAST.
EARLY TIDE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDE LEVELS DURING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY
RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 FEET MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER WHICH WOULD
BE IN COASTAL ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NEARING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
CRITERIA. MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO JUST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RUA
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES NEEDED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
RUA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 71 89 73 90 / 10 20 0 10
LCH 75 87 76 86 / 10 10 0 10
LFT 73 88 75 89 / 10 20 0 10
BPT 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC...07
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