465
FXUS64 KLCH 051811
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
111 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
- THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMERGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MONDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG
THE GULF COAST, FROM SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AT
THIS TIME. EXCESSIVE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
LARGELY BEEN SHUNTED OFFSHORE, WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AND
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS. INLAND, A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AS HALF OF THE REGION STARTS TO BENEFIT FROM DRY
AIR ADVECTION WHILE THE OTHER HALF REMAINS IN A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT FOR A WHILE LONGER. ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX AND
CENLA, DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY CLEAR AND
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR, MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED FOR A WHILE LONGER WITH CLOUD
COVER LINGERING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SLOW DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AS WEAK
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ALOFT AND
SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A NE TO E COMPONENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN
THE GULF. WHILE THIS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION FOR A FEW DAYS, IT WILL ALSO BRING BACK UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OUTLINED WITH A 60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A 80% CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS BY NHC.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PULLING THIS SYSTEM NORTH
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, STRENGTH AND
IMPACTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WE CAN EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS LOOK
GREATEST TO OUR EAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, THINGS COULD DEFINITELY
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WE START TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MAINLY MVFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY EVENING AS A CLOUD DECK AROUND 2500FT CONTINUES TO
LINGER OVERHEAD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
WHERE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT LFT AND
ARA WITH VCSH UNTIL SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AROUND
10KTS WITH GUST BETWEEN 15-18KTS, AS THE SUN SETS WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 6 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MODEST NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO BEYOND SCA CRITERIA
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. BY
FRIDAY, STRONG WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY TO GALE FORCE WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE AND WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DRY AIR WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, ALLOWING MINRH VALUES TO SLOWLY FALL FROM THE UPPER 40S-
LOW 60S TOMORROW INTO THE MID 30S-MID 50S BY THURSDAY. THE INCREASE
IN DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY RETURNING THEREAFTER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...86
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