181
FXUS64 KLCH 281853
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY DUE TO LOW RH
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK
- LOW TO MID RANGE (20 TO 40%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOST OF THE CONUS
SITTING UNDER AN EXPANSIVE 500 MB RIDGE. LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS BROUGHT DRY NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
LARGELY DRY FUELS IN PLACE. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES TO COVER THIS THREAT, WITH AN RFD STATEMENT
FOR THE TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE WINDS ARE A BIT WEAKER. THESE HEADLINES
WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY, ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY AND BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. SOME LINGERING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND THAT ARE
LATER TO SEE THIS MOISTURE RETURN, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY AREAS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA.
WITH THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK
FOR MOSTLY THE ACADIANA REGION (20-30 PERCENT). WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MORNING FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE CWA. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND PUSH EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED POPS ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA. THIS MAY ALSO OPEN THE DOOR
FOR SOME DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO AFFECT
THE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE
FROM 15 KNOTS TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS, WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS APPROACHING 20 KT AND RESULTING ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DECREASE BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY, WITH ONSHORE FLOW THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONCERNS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 10-12 KT AND SEAS 4 FT
OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT, DEW POINTS DROPPED
DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH.
THANKFULLY, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS, THE DELAY IN MOISTURE RETURN WILL
NECESSITATE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS, PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE,
BUT DRY FUELS WON’T SEE ANY MAJOR IMPROVEMENT EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES
START TO TICK UP AROUND MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 48 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
LCH 53 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 53 81 65 83 / 0 10 0 30
BPT 54 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14/64
LONG TERM....14/64
AVIATION...14/64
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