594
FXUS64 KLCH 131125
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90'S AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS OPPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION.
- UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US MAY OFFER ENOUGH
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND A 5 TO 9 PERCENT CHANCE.)
OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS WORKING, AT SPORTING PRACTICES, OR OTHERWISE
BEING ACTIVE OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD BE ONSHORE AT
CALIFORNIA AND PREPARING TO DROP OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. BY
MIDDAY, RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS ALREADY FEELING THE
INFLUENCE FROM THIS TROF AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM 300 DOWN THROUGH
850MB STARTS TO RELAX. AS A RESULT OF THESE RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT, A WIDELY SCATTERED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH A SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE ONLY NOD TOWARDS
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THAT THIS MAY HAPPEN IS BECAUSE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SO, ALL OTHER
CONDITIONS BEING SIMILAR SATURDAY... AS SUBSIDENCE BACKS OFF, A FEW
STRICTLY AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS/VERY WEAK STORMS MAY DEVELOP. FOR
NOW, A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST THIS COMING AFTERNOON.
AS SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE SHRINKS INLAND, FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SO A WEAK MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE INTO SUNDAY.
UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS MARCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SHUNTED BACK TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOISTURE RETURN, EVEN IN ITS MINIMAL NATURE, SHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
UPPER TROF WASHES OUT GOING INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER
LOW BACKBUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
LOW SHOULD REINFORCE DRY AIR RETURN OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER
RIDGE ARE FORCED BACK OVERTOP THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL US IN RESPONSE TO LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST. THUSLY, A
RETURN TO HOT AND DRY WITH QUIET RADAR CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITHIN THE
LARGELY DRY AIRMASS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
GENERAL PERSISTENCE IN THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STEADY TEMPERATURE PROFILE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH HIGHS SITUATED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW-MID 70S WITH THE COOLER TEMPS MORE
ALIGNED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES. THERE
WILL REMAIN VERY FEW, ISOLATED POSSIBILITIES OF PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS
AT TIMES ACROSS THE PERIOD RUNNING EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
PRECIP TOTALS AREN'T GOING TO BE VERY APPRECIABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE
SINCE THE SIGNAL DENOTES MORE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. WE'LL
CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN TO THE NORTH AS
SOME GUIDANCE INFERS A POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING
THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY THAT TIME
FRAME, BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
LEADING TO A RELATIVELY TAME PRECIP FORECAST WHEN ASSESSING THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. NO MATTER WHAT YOU LOOK AT, SUMMER MAINTAINS ITS
GRIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO TRUE COLD FRONT IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT
7+ DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AS HIGHS AVERAGE 5 TO 7
DEGREES F ABOVE CLIMO NORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO LOWER
HUMIDITY, DAYTIME HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EACH DAY.
CALHOUN/KLEEBAUER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
THERE ARE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ABOUT THE REGION, HOWEVER LOW VIS IS
NOT IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES, NOR ARE ANY EXPECTED TO GO BELOW
6SM. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE IS
A NONZERO CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS WAS NOT
ADDED IN THE TAFS DUE TO CHANCES BEING BELOW 15 PERCENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.
PERIODS OF ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUTER
20 TO 60 NM WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WAVES.
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MID WEEK, HOWEVER, TODAY INTO
SUNDAY, A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM, BUT THIS
WEAKNESS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND SUNDAY. VERY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. MID TO UPPER 90S ARE
EXPECTED THRU THE MID WEEK. SURFACE MIXING IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME RH MINIMUMS IN THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 95 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 93 73 91 72 / 0 0 10 0
LFT 94 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 93 73 91 72 / 10 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...87
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