162
FXUS64 KLCH 081921
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
- AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS HURRICANE ISAIAS PASSES TO THE EAST, BRINGING LOW END
RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY LOWER ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF,
WITH ITS INTENSITY ANALYZED AT 85 MPH PER THE LATEST UPDATE FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY AMID A GENERALLY LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM GULF WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PULL ISAIAS TO THE
NORTH AND INTRODUCE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM
FRIDAY, ALLOWING IT TO BEGIN WEAKENING. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE
INDICATES ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN COASTAL ALABAMA OR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO GENERALLY KEEP MOST OF THE DIRECT TROPICAL IMPACTS
CONFINED TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL IN FACT BE FIRE DANGER, AS ELEVATED WIND GUSTS
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS. SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER MOST OF OUR CWA, WITH
SKIES ALMOST ENTIRELY DEVOID OF ANY CLOUDS. THE 18Z LCH SOUNDING
OBSERVED A PWAT OF 0.62 INCHES, LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH
PERCENTILE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER LOWER ACADIANA WHERE
SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, BUT THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE CAN
EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
MPH POSSIBLE, BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN SOME AFTER SUNSET.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUR GULF COAST DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE RISES WILL BE LESS THAN OBSERVED IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, GUIDANCE INDICATES LEVELS OF 1.5 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE MHHW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MOST OF OUR COAST, WITH THE
HIGHEST LEVELS ANTICIPATED AROUND CALCASIEU AND SABINE PASSES. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE FOR TONIGHT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WHILE AREAS INLAND
ALONG SABINE AND CALCASIEU LAKES MAY SEE SOME RISES AS WELL, THESE
AREAS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES LEVELS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THERE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY AS
ISAIAS APPROACHES THE GULF COAST, BUT IT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE
QUITE DRY OVERALL. LREF MEAN PWAT BY FRIDAY EVENING RANGES FROM
0.9 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FOR LOWER ACADIANA,
AS HREF MEAN SBCAPE CLIMBS INTO THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE. GIVEN THE
TROPICAL ORIGINS OF THIS MOISTURE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
BRIEF/LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER MAY BE A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, BUT ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE
OTHER CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO OUR
AREAS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ACADIANA. AT
THIS TIME, WIND SPEEDS APPEAR TOO LOW FOR ANY WIND ADVISORIES, BUT
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BE ADVECTED DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF ISAIAS
INTO OUR CWA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, CLOSEST TO THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE, BUT
INCOMING DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY SHUT OFF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LREF MEAN PWAT DIPS DOWN TO 0.8-0.9 INCHES
AREA-WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH IS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 25TH
PERCENTILE VALUES. THUS, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO AROUND 90 SUNDAY.
AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO BEGIN
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE A BIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-OCTOBER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TAFS WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE, WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HURRICANE ISAIAS
ORGANIZES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. NORTHEAST WINDS
10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20+ KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5-10 KT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z.
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL LARGELY BE CLEAR, THOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ISAIAS MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO LFT/ARA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, LIKELY MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MOBILE-PENSACOLA AREA.
WHILE OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL NOT BE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THE
STORM, IT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVES TO ALL COASTAL
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULF WATERS
AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE VERMILION BAY AREA FRIDAY MIDDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS, WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR OFFSHORE GULF
ZONES. GUSTS IN THIS AREA MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 10 FEET OR GREATER OFFSHORE AND UP
TO 4-5 FEET ALONG THE COAST.
AS ISAIAS PASSES TO THE EAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO OUR EASTERN MARINE ZONES AS THE
AIRMASS FURTHER WEST WILL BE DRIER WITH MORE LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
AS HURRICANE ISAIAS STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, ALLOWING ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS TO
ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AMID A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ON THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF ISAIAS. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
WITH KBDI VALUES APPROACHING 700 TO 750, THIS WILL CREATE A
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER SETUP ACROSS THESE AREAS. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, MINRH WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA,
ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE COAST, IT WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR OUR AREA FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT ACROSS
LOWER ACADIANA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THESE AREAS WILL
HAVE THE BEST MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ISAIAS OR ITS REMNANTS
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNUSUALLY
DRY WITH MINRH GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LAZ073-074-252>254.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR TXZ615.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ435-436.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
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