101
FXUS64 KLCH 110538
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
- WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF AND THE LIKELY LACK OF SHOWERS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO END PART OF THE WEEK, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT
AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 90 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WILL BE WATCHING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM.
FIRST IS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MIX OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE OTHER IS COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
MOVING EAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THESE SITUATIONS WITH ANY CONSISTENCY.
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES. MEANWHILE, THE COMPLEX OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE MORE SOUTH OF HOUSTON AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THEREFORE, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED NOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS
BRING FORCING DURING DAYTIME HEATING THAT CAMS INDICATE WILL KICK
OFF A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTED MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SO WILL NOT BE SURFACE BASED,
HOWEVER, DECENT INSTABILITY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PWAT NEAR
1.8 INCHES AND OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE) THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THERE WILL BE A RISK OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
RAIN FALLS OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN TODAY.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RETURN FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL WARM THINGS UP AGAIN WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WILL NEAR 90
DEGREES. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WILL BE WATCHING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST OF KAEX IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TO THE EAST.
AT THIS POINT THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FORM AFTER
11/09Z.
A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER
11/18Z AS DAYTIME HEATING, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, AND BOTH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMBINE TO GET ACTIVITY
GOING.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THESE
STORMS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A RATHER HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 40-50% RANGE FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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