926
FXUS64 KLCH 111129
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS
THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS, LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY AND
SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 4-7 AM WITH ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MINIMAL TODAY ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SMALL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNIFORM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY ALLOWING MORE EXPANSIVE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE AND UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROF DIGGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BEFORE STALLING. AT THE SAME TIME, A SLUG OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE
EASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS GULF COASTS WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS (2.25 INCHES). PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THIS HIGH ARE USUALLY RESERVED FOR INSIDE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES FROM THE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION MAY POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS RIDGE ON THE WEAKER SIDE SO SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
WITH EXCEPTION TO SOME AREAS OF FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING
AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. PATCHY FOG, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 190 CORRIDOR HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BURN
OFF. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION,
THIS WAS OMITTED FROM THIS TAF CYCLE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-
3 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS, ONSHORE WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE COAST. THIS FRONT ISN'T
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, BUT IT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...87
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