998
FXUS64 KLCH 172332
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BOTH AFTERNOONS.
-AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EACH DAY.
- SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
TEMPERATURES SPAN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S MAKING IT FEEL LIKE EARLY SUMMER. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS IS ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH OBSERVED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 27 KNOTS SO FAR. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE VARYING
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS SEEING 10 KNOTS OR
LESS SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WORKING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING HANDLED VERY POORLY BY NBM SO THE
AFTERNOON POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONGOING
TREND. A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MAX
HEATING WITH ALL PRECIP EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
WARM, HUMID AND WINDY CONDITIONS. FORECAST WINDS WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE THRESHOLD FOR A WIND ADVISORY, BUT USING PRESENT CONDITIONS AS A
PROXY, THINKING THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO WILL
DEFER THIS DECISION TO THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE OR POSSIBLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRESENT PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ALTHOUGH NOT ZERO.
A MUCH WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES STREAMING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 60-80% EACH DAY. FORECAST QPF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK RANGES FROM 2-4 INCHES ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT
ACCOUNT FOR DISCREET HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. FLASH FLOOD RISK
MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED IN
RESPONSE TO THE LONG DURATION WET PATTERN. THIS IS, HOWEVER, GOOD
NEWS FOR THE ONGOING, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED, DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
MOISTURE HAS RETURNED IN A BIG WAY TODAY ON STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.
CEILINGS HAVE DESCENDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND LARGELY ARE SITTING
IN THE MID TO UPPER MVFR RANGE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED IN DEEP SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MUCH
OF THE SAME CAN BE ANTICIPATED FROM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BACKING OFF, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING SEAS TO 3-6 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO MONDAY EVENING. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROVIDE SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 60-70% RANGE THIS WEEK. A WET
PATTERN SETS UP BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROVIDE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470-
472.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...11
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