432
FXUS64 KLCH 260513
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING
TEMPERATURES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 100S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
- LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO LOSE ITS CONTROL
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING TEMPS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY AND RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
LATE NIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST, WHILE ALOFT A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MID-LEVELS, WITH A PWAT OF 1.73" WHICH IS
JUST BELOW THE MEDIAN ACCORDING TO SPC CLIMO. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING A
REPETITIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. APART FROM A
VERY MINOR CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON,
CONVECTION WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK, AS RIDGING ALOFT
KEEPS A CAP ON SUMMERTIME SHOWERS. ONLY REAL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE WILL
BE THE HEAT, AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO STEADILY CLIMB. TODAY,
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID-90S WHILE HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT
AROUND THE MID-100S. SOME SELECT AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE UPPER
100S, REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AT
THIS POINT I DON'T FEEL THESE 108+ HEAT INDICES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH MID-90S
ELSEWHERE. AFTER TODAY, HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY EACH DAY THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE HEAT BECOMES DANGEROUS AND SWELTERING.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND RETREAT WESTWARD, AS A STRONGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW END RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS
AND FRI, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL BE LESS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OFF
INTO THE ATLANTIC HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
IT MAY ALLOW A CUT OFF LOW/SHORTWAVE FEATURE TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY GIVE
THE WEST CONUS RIDGE A FURTHER PUSH WESTWARD, LOOSENING ITS HOLD ON
THE CWA AND IN TURN ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO TICK UP FURTHER THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-90S
EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT AEX AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, NO DEVIATIONS FROM VFR
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES RETURNING THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK. THE KBDI CONTINUES TO CLIMB WITH VALUES NOW BETWEEN
400 AND 600, WITH HIGHER VALUES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 60% THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WHILE
NOWHERE NEAR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY, IT DOES BEARS NOTING THAT
CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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