805
FXUS64 KLCH 312337
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVING IN ON THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WET CONDITIONS ON EASTER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO
KEEP FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CWA WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE 500 MB RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FINALLY BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW
OVER MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN EACH NIGHT.
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, THOUGH THE GFS/GEFS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE LESS
AMPLIFIED EURO/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT
LOOK ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE. BLENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFER CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 0.25 INCHES THURSDAY THAT RANGE FROM
AROUND 25% OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST TX AND CENLA TO LESS THAN 5% OVER
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST.
ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SETUP DOES LOOK TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH A FOCUS TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER LOWER ACADIANA TO 70-90 PERCENT NORTH OF THE US 190
CORRIDOR, WITH 50TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM, WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND JUST HOW
MUCH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL BE TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL LEADING
THROUGH THE EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
30 / 64
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE FEW POP UP SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED TODAY ARE DISSIPATING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE UNDER THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SITUATION POINTS TO IFR CEILINGS
FROM LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. PROBS ALSO
SHOW THIS WITH ROUGHLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
BELOW 4 MILES AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT BELOW 1/2 MILE WITH NBM MEAN
VISIBILITY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY THEN VFR BY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A CHANCE OF POP UP
SHOWERS AGAIN AND WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST THIS WEEK THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS BUILDING SEAS WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
ALTHOUGH FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF
DROUGHT CONTINUES, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT.
THIS HIGHER AFTERNOON WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT IN
CHECK. AS THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE, HIT AND MISS TYPE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...07
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