797
FXUS64 KLCH 231837
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 108 TO 114.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
RETURNING NEARER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WITH THAT
COMES A LOW END CHANCE THAT A COUPLE MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WX MAP ILLUSTRATES A FAIRLY RELAXED PATTERN LOCALLY WITH SLACK
STANDARD SEA LEVEL PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALOFT, IT IS POSSIBLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW END-
SUPPORTING ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8PM CDT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL STILL
HEDGE INTO CRITERIA WHILE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BUILD TO THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. SOME OBSERVATIONS DO REFLECT LOWER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. REGARDLESS, THE IMPACT POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES STILL WARRANTS THE ADVISORY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DOES HAVE SOME PERTURBATIVE FLOW ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY
WHICH STRETCHES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE IT ABUTS A MUCH
DRIER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY FORCE ELEVATED PARCELS ABOVE 1 KM INTO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THESE CHANCES ARE FAVORED ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SPATIAL EXTENT
COULD EXPAND FURTHER WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS, HOWEVER, THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BECOMES LESS SUPPORTIVE FURTHER WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BY TUESDAY, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT MEANDERS NORTH OF THE
LOUISIANA / ARKANSAS STATE LINE MAY CONTINUE TO ACT AS FOCAL
MECHANISM FOR INITIATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS IN BOTH BLENDED AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, MUCH OF
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL REMAIN EAST OF THE I-49
CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER 90S DURING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING FURTHER
SOUTH, POTENTIALLY INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW END CHANCES
CARRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AHEAD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE MID 90S.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW END CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TS
CELLS, SOME OF WHICH MAY HAVE STRONG UP DRAFTS, THEREFORE PROBS WERE
INCLUDED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL CALM TONIGHT THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AND LATER SOUTH MONDAY / MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 1-2 FEET. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN AND AROUND THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND EAST. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
KBDI VALUES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 530 TO 750 ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. DAILY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 40-
50% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. PERSONAL OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. BURN BANS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST PARISHES AND COUNTIES BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
CONSULT YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ027>033-044-
045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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