559
FXUS64 KLCH 050554
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1254 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
- THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EMERGES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN HANGING AROUND THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE ALL BUT THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. THE KLCH RAOB WAS
STILL QUITE MOIST, COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.57 INCHES, WHICH IS
EXACTLY WHAT IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. THE FRONT, AND THIS ASSOCIATED
DEEP MSTR POOL, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROF TRAVERSES
THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INFUSION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
AND A SUPPRESSION OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA, WITH AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING UNDERNEATH WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, BUT THE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SHOWN BY THE NBM THIS WEEKEND ARE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROGGED NORTHWARD RETURN OF THE DEEPER MSTR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
CIGS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SO ATTEMPTED TO CAPTURE THE OVERALL TREND OF PREVAILING
VFR AT KAEX, MVFR AT KBPT AND KLCH, AND IFR AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE OVERALL TREND OF
CIGS RUNNING A LITTLE BETTER THAN GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST LEANS
MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE IN SHOWING IMPROVEMENT ON MON.
ELEVATED AND AT TIMES GUSTY NE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY, BEFORE EASING OFF MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MODEST EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LIFTING NORTH FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, WITH MINRH DROPPING FROM THE 70S DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 60S RANGE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
470.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...13
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page