396
FXUS64 KLCH 081752
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH HIT OR MISS MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH A PROBABILITY
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE CONUS/NORTHERN GULF COAST,
PROVIDING A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IS NOTED OVERHEAD BETWEEN 2 RIDGES OVER THE SW CONUS
AND W ATLANTIC. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL LINGER THROUGH WEEKEND,
RESULTING A 'RINSE A REPEAT' FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF THE
SEABREEZE/DAYTIME HEATING, AMPLE MOISTURE OVERHEAD, AND THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. SOME STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING SINCE THIS MORNING, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP. LIKE THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT THESE
STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING SO THEY COULD RESULT IN SOME VERY
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IF THEY SET UP OVER URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
MOVING INTO THE WORK WEEK, WEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN WHILE THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC BEGINS TO
SHIFT WESTWARD IN RESPONSE. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
AND A PLUME OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT UP THE TX
COAST/WEST GULF AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, POPS INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
50-70% RANGE, WITH MORE OF A SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY EXPECTED. BEYOND MONDAY, ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND STRENGTHEN,
BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THEREFORE, OUR DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY, RETURNING TO A NEAR ZERO
CHANCE BY THURS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES START TO CREEP BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE THESE STORMS MAY AVOID THE TERMINALS ALL TOGETHER, IF ANY DO
PASS OVER THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO REDUCTIONS
IN VIS. OTHERWISE, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK NEAR 30000-35000FT
MAY CAUSE SOME SITES TO OCCASIONALLY DIP TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ONLY ISSUE WILL BE
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW VIS TO
DROP TO AROUND 4SM. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUES, WITH THE BEST CHANCE CLOSER TO SHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE OVERALL ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER WITH AN INCREASE IN THE KBDI. WITH LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FROM MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS, MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 50 TO 60
PERCENT. A BRIEF SURGE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page