039
FXUS64 KLCH 071752
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN.
- A WEAKNESS REDEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DEEPER
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE HELPING TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES DAILY WITH THE HEAT
RISK AT MODERATE LEVEL (2 OUT OF 4.)
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, PROVIDING A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX, BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING TO
THE EAST AND WEST. AREA RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ALONG
THE COAST/SOUTH OF I-10, AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
STREAMING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN SHREVEPORT AND ALEXANDRIA DRIVEN BY THE
UPPER TROUGH. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS PER USUAL, AS DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO RAMP UP.
SOME STORMS, PARTICULARLY THOSE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH, WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH SPC HAVING
OUTLINED A LARGE PART OF THE CWA NORTH OF I-190 IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION, WPC HAS ONCE AGAIN OUTLINED
MOST OF THE REGION (EXCLUDING LOWER ACADIANA) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT A LOT OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS RIDGING TO
THE WEST AND EAST EXPAND TOWARDS EACH OTHER OVERHEAD. THEREAFTER,
WEAK RIDGING WILL BECOME SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT US TOWARDS A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY THE WEEKEND, POPS RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN AS UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD ONCE
AGAIN. THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT TOGETHER WITH THE SEABREEZE/DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON ACTIVITY EACH DAY
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID
100S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CONVECTION ONGOING BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-190 AND THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAPABLE OF REDUCING VIS
INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AEX MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME STORMS A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL TAPER
OFF POST-SUNSET THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO MID WEEK, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM A
WEAKNESS ALOFT, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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