890
FXUS64 KLCH 170528
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL,
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR TODAY FROM 9AM
UNTIL 8 PM.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THEREAFTER,
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY EASE BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LOCALLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WX MAP FEATURES A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. MASS CONVERGENCE AT JET LEVEL WILL PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AS COOL CONTINENTAL DRY AIR POURS
DOWN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
4PM TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG GUSTS THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. THE MARINE HAZARDS HAVE BEEN LEFT PLACE WITH THE GALE
WARNING TRANSITIONING DOWN TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER 1:00 PM.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE ARE DRY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF WE HAD A GUMBO WATCH, THIS WOULD BE TIME TO UPGRADE
TO A GUMBO WARNING. MAKE SURE EVERYONE ENJOYS A WARM HEARTY MEAL
SATURDAY NIGHT OR BEFORE HEADING OUT FOR SUNDAY MORNING
ACTIVITIES. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TO THE UPPER 70S AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE CELL MEANDERS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. HOWEVER, THE MORNING WILL
BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS AT THE JOB
SITE AND BUS STOP HOVERING IN THE MID 40'S TO LOW 50S. WE'LL
CONTINUE OUR SLOW WARM TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH UPPER 80S AND SOME 90S LIKELY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST AND KEEP US LOOKING AT A DRY
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
RANGING 15-25KTS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. GUSTS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING THIS RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT HOWEVER WINDS
WILL STILL HAVE MODERATE BREEZES OUT OF THE NORTH WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY. THE
GREATEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7-11 FT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT, WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG. WHILE WINDS DECREASE FROM THESE MORE HAZARDOUS LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR
EASTERN MARINE ZONES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A MORE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE TAKEN INTO
CONSIDERATION GIVEN CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM ROBUST NORTHERLY BREEZES. A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH DROPPING INTO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE AREA-WIDE. THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 AND EAST OF I-49, WHERE THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE.
WINDS DECREASE CLOSER TO THE 5-10 KT RANGE FOR SUNDAY HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON MINRH LIKELY
IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE AT OR
NEAR ZERO THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LAZ027>030.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ029-032-033-
044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-
259-260.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ515-516-615-
616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-
470-472-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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