628
FXUS64 KLCH 212334
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES UP THE TX COAST. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MORNING WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED APPROXIMATELY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE, WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WERE LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
THE DRY LAYER IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAINS EVIDENT ON THE 18Z
KLCH RAOB, BUT THE SOUNDING DID SHOW AN INCREASE IN PWAT TO 0.88
INCHES (MORE THAN DOUBLE WHAT IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME), AND
LIGHT RAIN HAS ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND IN SOUTHWEST LA
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-49
WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE IS FOCUSED. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY LIMITED, SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE LOW, BUT
ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN US BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF TO THE
EAST. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA, WHICH COMBINED WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOISTEN
THE COLUMN AND ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL DRY LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. A
RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT, BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE NEXT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH INSTABILITY FOR
WEDNESDAY, WITH HREF 50TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE AND PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.4-1.6 INCHES, THIS WILL
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY, AND WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST TX AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST LA.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 1 INCHES, BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY HIGHER
TOTALS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 FROM
LAKE CHARLES WESTWARD, WHERE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING AN INCH
ARE GENERALLY 40 TO 60 PERCENT. LOWER ACADIANA AND THE I-49
CORRIDOR WILL SEE MUCH LESS, WITH QPF IN THESE AREAS BELOW 0.25
INCHES.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP THE CWA IN A WARM, MOIST PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. WITH THE HELP OF A FEW UPPER-LEVEL WAVES, THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PROBABLY BE FOCUSED
NORTH OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/PARISHES, BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LEAD TIME.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
DESPITE THE CURRENT DREARY OVERCAST AND RAINY CONDITIONS, VIS AND
CIGS HAVE REMAINED VFR. WHILE THAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD, WE WILL SEE CIGS LOWER GOING INTO TOMORROW MORNING
ALONG WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, RAINY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
EAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTH TEXAS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FEW MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO RETREAT TO THE EAST, ALLOWING
WINDS OVER THE AREA TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND BRINGING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MULTIPLE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID ACROSS
THE REGION WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE ONGOING
DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...87
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