143
FXUS64 KLCH 140543
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
- SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE STREET FLOODING IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 102-109.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A FEW POCKETS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AND SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT. CAMS GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER
EARLY MORNING INITIALIZATION OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST OFFSHORE ON OR ABOUT 3 AM. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIFT INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THUNDER POTENTIALLY PRECEDING THE MORNING
ALARM CLOCK BY A COUPLE HOURS. HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT SIMILAR TO MONDAY, THE EARLY
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AID IN STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS COMBINATION
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A FREEZING LEVEL NORTH OF
15KFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF RAINFALL RATES IN
THE 3-4 INCH PER HOUR RANGE WHICH CAN QUICKLY MAKE LOW LYING OR
POORLY DRAINED SECONDARY ROADS IMPASSABLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO MAINTAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR ONE MORE DAY. BY
THURSDAY, RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EFFECTIVELY TURNING OFF THE RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR SKIES
AND DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO THE 102-109 RANGE. SOME
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICT AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND AND WHILE THIS HAS HAD SOME
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, IT'S STILL SEEN AS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRAPED OVER THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING. THE EARLY RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. AWAY FROM STORMS, VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH STORMS
COMING TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DROPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH THE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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