376
FXUS64 KLCH 121926
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARM IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD 90°F
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOMORROW WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT THUS KEEPING AFTERNOONS
FEELING RATHER MUGGY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY SOUTH
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN HELPS
DIRECT DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN LOCALLY
ACROSS THE TX / LA COAST. BEING AT THE FRINGE OF THIS DOWNSTREAM
DISTURBANCE, WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH EASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME
MIX OF DIURNAL CUMULUS, THOUGH TO A LESSER EXTEND WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACES BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A GENTLE WARM UP TO THE UPPER
80'S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE TOUCHING CLOSE TO
AROUND 90°F. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BROADEN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THURSDAY ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER A STEADY RIDGE
CAP WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON RH, MAKING SURFACE CONDITIONS A
LITTLE MORE MUGGY TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LIKEWISE
EVENING LOWS WILL TREND IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S DURING THIS
PERIOD ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS.
FORECAST REMAINS QUIET IN TERMS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, OR ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THAT MATTER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON ISOLATED POPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
THIS WAS LARGELY EXPECTED DURING LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST GIVEN THE
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUCKLING NORTH OF MEXICO REST OF THIS
WEEK. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AS IT
BROADENS. NEARING METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE
MAY START SEEING MORE SEABREEZE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT THIS WEEKEND REMAINS VERY LOW.
BY MONDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND SECONUS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOCALLY, THE ONLY AFFECT MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT WINDS
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM AND INCREASE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THUS, A FAIRLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS RANGING 2-4KFT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD HELP RAISE CEILINGS ABOVE
3KFT FOR BKN DECKS THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LCH 12TH/18Z SOUNDING
ILLUSTRATES VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 3500FT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE NNE
THROUGH EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM
OVERNIGHT.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE BENIGN, WITH WAVES BELOW 3 FEET AND WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVERHEAD. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST, AND WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. WAVES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT BUILDS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE
INTO THE 40 - 60% RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. BREEZES
MAY BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD-LIKELY
OFFERING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON MINRH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AT THIS TIME, FORECAST REMAINS DRY W.R.T. TO RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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