551
FXUS64 KLCH 030555
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1255 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND MONDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY WILL PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING
IS YIELDING CLEAR SKIES WHILE ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM RESULTING IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S THIS MORNING WHICH IS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WITH IT'S SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORD, NEW
IBERIA WILL BE CLOSE TO TYING OR BREAKING IT'S DAILY RECORD LOW, BUT
NO OTHER DAILY RECORDS ARE AT RISK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY AND MONDAY KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES UNUSUALLY PLEASANT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY, WINDS WILL TURN
BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT DEWPOINTS WON'T CLIMB SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHALLOW WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S ON
TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PUSHING ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIRMASS TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
CONVECTION INITIALIZING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE STILL EARLY, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY FIVE 15% PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NEARLY ALL OF LOUISIANA,
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA CITING THE INSTABILITY FROM THE WARM, HUMID
AIRMASS PRECEDING THE FROPA. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN'T GOING TO BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE
ONE WE'RE PRESENTLY EXPERIENCING, BUT WILL STILL BE POTENT ENOUGH TO
DROP LOWS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ONCE AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NEARLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO DIMINISH BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL PUSH
MINIMUM RH'S TO BETWEEN 35-40% THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE
AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE, BUT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page