486
FXUS64 KLCH 290457
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK ILL-DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LA, WHILE ALOFT, RIDGING IS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE NERLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENLA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE
ADDITION OF DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SKY ROCKET INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENLA. PRECIP WISE, A STRAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WITH MORE DRY AIR ALOFT DON'T EXPECT
ANY REAL SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TODAY.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST (THIS IS THE
SAME FEATURE THAT NHC HAS OUTLINED WITH A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER 7 DAYS). ON SUNDAY, THIS FEATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN
TO OUR EAST, WITH A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT NOTED FROM ACADIANA TO SE
LA. WHILE THE SLUG OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL
LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE SOME
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS LA AND INTO TX. WHILE SOME DECENT, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AN REAL SUBSTANTIAL
RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SET UP WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM RANGE POPS AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, NO ISSUES
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
AMID OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. BY MONDAY,
AN INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES CLIMBING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING
MINRH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 35 TO 45% RANGE ACROSS INTERIOR SE
TX/CENLA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. RH'S WILL INCREASE
AGAIN AREA-WIDE MONDAY WITH MINRH VALUES BACK IN THE 50 TO 60% RANGE
AREAWIDE. THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT WITH KBDI
VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO 760.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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