253
FXUS64 KLCH 141917
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
217 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RED
FLAG WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- HIGH WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE TO MARINE
AND ONSHORE WIND ADVISORIES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS
FINALLY WEAKENING AND BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PROPAGATES IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT
ORIGINATE FROM THE GULF. WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE
GULF, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE NIGHT WITH LOWS
BARELY DROPPING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE. WITH A DEW POINT
DEPRESSION OF ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES ALONG WITH CALM WINDS, MORE
DENSE FOG COULD FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOG WILL
MAINLY BE RADIATION FOG AND SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR UP AFTER SUNRISE
BUT WITH OUR SOUTHERN WINDS SOME MARINE INFLUENCE COULD KEEP SOME
POCKETS OF FOG ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY WILL
MOSTLY BE A REPEAT OF TODAY, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVERHEAD.
ON FRIDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BE A “DRY” FRONT WITH LOW-END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS POPS STAY BELOW 20% NORTH OF I-10 AND
AROUND 30 TO 40% CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A COOL, DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS
FRONT: THE FIRST WILL BE WIND SPEEDS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
APPROACHING 20 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. THE SECOND MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER. WITH
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WE HAVE KBDI VALUES WELL INTO THE
700S, WITH 10- AND 100-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HOVERING AROUND
25%. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE ALREADY
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN DEW
POINTS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE FORECAST DROPS RH VALUES BELOW 30%
ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CONCERNING FOR FIRE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY AS
THE DRY, SUBSIDED AIRMASS BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE HIGHLY
DRIED OUT FUELS. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THAT SPARKED THE TIGER ISLAND FIRE IN 2023 ANY FIRES THAT DO
SPARK COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL. THE EXTENDED FORECAST
UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS DRY, BUT IT WILL BE LESS MUGGY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT,
AROUND 5 KNOTS. NEAR SUNRISE, FOG WILL FORM AGAIN FOR ARA, AEX,
AND LFT WITH MVFR TO IFR IMPACTS. AFTER SUNRISE, CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT,
AROUND 5 KNOTS. NEAR SUNRISE, FOG WILL FORM AGAIN FOR ARA, AEX,
AND LFT WITH MVFR TO IFR IMPACTS. AFTER SUNRISE, CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR AREA-WIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CALM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE, CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
REACHING 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN 30 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE STRENGTH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. WITH THE HIGH WIND SPEEDS, WAVES WILL
QUICKLY RESPOND WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FEET EXPECTED 40 NM OFFSHORE
AND UP TO 5 FEET CLOSE TO SHORE. MARINERS SHOULD WATCH THE
FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WE HAVE KBDI VALUES WELL INTO
THE 700S, WITH 10-HOUR AND 100-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 25%. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
ALREADY DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
DEW POINTS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE FORECAST DROPS RH VALUES BELOW
30% ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CONCERNING FOR
FIRE WEATHER. HOWEVER, SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL
DAY AS THE DRY, SUBSIDED AIRMASS BECOMES FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
HIGHLY DRIED OUT FUELS. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT SPARKED THE TIGER ISLAND FIRE IN 2023, AND FIRES
THAT DO SPARK COULD QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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