516
FXUS64 KLCH 200507
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH COOL
MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS EACH DAY.
- FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 25 -
35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
- NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CELL PRESENTLY CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH MODEST RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. CONCURRENTLY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
SIZABLE AMPLIFICATION INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REBOUND TOWARD THE LOW / MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60°F. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A LITTLE
FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
TOUCHING THE UPPER 80S, HOWEVER LOWS WILL TREND ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AHEAD, IT WILL FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK INTO FRIDAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK
IS A METEOROLOGICAL SHORT TERM TO DESCRIBE WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO WELL PRONOUNCED OR AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. OFTEN THIS RESULTS IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH RAINFALL
OR VERY DRY WEATHER DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. FOR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COMMUNITIES, IT IS UNFORTUNATE TO SAY
THAT WE WILL LEAN IN THE DRY PORTION OF THE PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE
AMPLIFYING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SATURDAY.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS SOME SMOOTHING OF
THE RIDGE AS IT WANES TO THE SECONUS. THE FORECAST AREA DOES NOT
FULLY REGAIN AN ONSHORE REGIME INDICATING HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE 25-40%. THERE IS NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE FULL FORECAST
WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR. THUS, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK WILL BE THE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH NORTH TO EAST
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, DRY FUELS WILL BE SENSITIVE TO
IGNITION. BURN BANS SHOULD BE RESPECTED AND EVEN WHERE PERMITTED
UNNECESSARY BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. THE PUBLIC IS ALSO ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE EXTRA STEPS TO MINIMIZE SOURCES OF IGNITION SUCH AS PROPERLY
DISCARDING CIGARETTE BUTTS, KEEP CHAINS FROM DRAGGING, AND MONITOR
OUTDOOR COOKING APPARATUSES AND MACHINERY CLOSELY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
CALM / VARIABLE FOR PERIODS OF TIME DURING THE REMAINING NOCTURNAL
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TODAY AS NE WINDS PICKUP RANGING 5-10KTS ON THE RUNWAY.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 1PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE WATERS. A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO MID WEEK. WINDS
WILL BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW
AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LOW DEWPOINTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. MIN RHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY (30-45%), HOWEVER RH
VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472-
475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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