921
FXUS64 KLCH 081720
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THIS DAY AFTER LABOR
DAY HAS THE ENTIRE GULF COAST ASKING "WHEN CAN WE FINALLY GET A
COLD FRONT?" SADLY, THE ANSWER APPEARS TO BE NOT ANYTIME SOON AS
THERE ARE NO REAL INDICATIONS OF ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR IS A PASSING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR THUNDERSTORM TO OFFER SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF.
TODAY'S WEATHER BATTLE IS THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. VS A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (OBSERVED PWAT OF 2.26 AND FORECAST TO GO AS HIGH
AS 2.4) AND THOSE RISING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SCATTERED STORMS ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MANY AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. WHILE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOT HIGHLIGHTED ANY
OF THE REGION IN RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
COLLAPSING CELLS PRODUCING MICROBURSTS REMAINS LARGELY IDENTICAL TO
YESTERDAY WHICH SAW DAMAGE PRODUCING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE OR TWO OF THESE DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL AGAIN WANE INTO THE EVENING WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE DARKNESS, BUT THESE SHOULD SUCCUMB BY
AROUND 9-10 PM.
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY OFFERING STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE AND MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO INITIALIZE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE IT WILL BE STRONGEST.
GUIDANCE HAS UNIFORMLY TAPERED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INLAND
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND OFFSHORE AIDED BY A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL NO REAL INDICATION BY ANY RELIABLE MODEL
THAT THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN A RAINMAKER
LATER THIS WEEK.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING ALL SITES EXCEPT AEX WHICH WILL HAVE FEWER STORMS IN THE
VICINITY OWING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALMOST
CONTINUOUSLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AWAY FROM STORMS,
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON MINRH EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM 50- 60
PERCENT INLAND TO 65-75 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THIS RAINFALL
SHOULD HELP PUT A DENT IN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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