909
FXUS64 KLCH 301744
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK TO THE SURFACE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO 70 AND KEEPING
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED (20%).
- A TROPICAL WAVE OR DEPRESSION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
EAST TO WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY ELEVATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
DRY MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTH TEXAS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME
OF THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPS RANGING FROM 101-109. DEWPOINTS WILL REBOUND AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE (AL97) WILL HAVE AN OUTSIZED
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS OR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS TUESDAY. NHC PRESENTLY GIVES THIS
DISTURBANCE A 30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TRACK, THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. THERE IS
PRESENTLY A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT IN QPF WITH LATITUDE WITH PARTS OF
CENLA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SEEING COMPARATIVELY
LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FROM THE DISTURBANCE. THE GOOD NEWS AS
IT RELATES TO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEVERAL (4-6 INCHES) OF RAIN WOULD BE REQUIRED TO
INITIALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING BEYOND PONDING OF WATER ON
SECONDARY ROADS. AT PRESENT, ONLY OUTLIER GUIDANCE DEPICTS RAINFALL
TOTALS HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD.
ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND TUESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN BROAD WEAKNESS ALOFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 40-60% THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KLFT AND
KARA HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KARA
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM (97L) IN THE GULF MOVES CLOSER TO LAND. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
MAXWELL
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MODEST GUSTS AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE
INCREASE IN INTENSITY, FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS MAY NEED TO BE
REVISED UPWARDS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
DEWPOINTS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND
70 THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MIXES TO THE SURFACE. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND RH. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE BETWEEN
50 AND 70 PERCENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
THIS RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST PARISHES AND
COUNTIES AND KBDI VALUES REMAIN IN THE 500 TO 750 RANGE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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