885
FXUS64 KLCH 152328
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF TO THE EAST OF US,
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED. THERE IS A SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, WHICH HAS LED TO SOME OBS SITES
REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20MPH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WARMER THAN NORMAL WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THIS PERIOD.
NOT MUCH CHANGE REGARDING THE OVERALL SETUP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALOFT, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN TODAY, WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION INTO NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR
THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY INTO THE CONSECUTIVE WORK WEEK WILL SEE A
WETTER PATTERN CHANGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS. FORECAST
PWATS FROM SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WITH
PWATS FOR THE REST OF THE CONSECUTIVE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN THE 90TH AND MAX. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY (AND SOME
NIGHTLY) SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CARRYING ON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY
SOMEWHAT LIMIT DAYTIME WARMING, HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP DUE TO THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
IN FOG/MIST MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AT AEX, LFT, AND ARA WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, LEADING TO A
SHIFT IN WIND FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 TO 2 FT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND INLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO UP TO 20 KTS WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT. WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAX HEIGHTS
AROUND 6 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRINGING IN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE FOR A FEW DAYS, HOWEVER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN AND REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...64
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