906
FXUS64 KLCH 120547
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVERHEAD WILL KEEP DAILY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STORMS, WHICH WILL BE SLOW MOVING AT TIMES, WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH
RAINFALL RATES THAT COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
CONSISTENTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER FIVE KNOTS. DESPITE ONLY A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POCKETS OF FOG
HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP EACH OF THE LAST THREE MORNINGS EVEN WITHOUT
THE ADDED MOISTURE SO THE COMBINATION OF THE GUIDANCE AND
PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN 8
AM.
THE REGION REMAINS SITUATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE BOTH DAYS.
THIS RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH INTO THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHING A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE COAST WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL. AS
THE RIDGE LOSES INFLUENCE SUNDAY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ABSORBING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE MEXICAN AND TEXAS
GULF COASTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
2.25+ CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
TRAINING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
MONDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH
SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.
THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH THE QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD ALTHOUGH THE DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT AEX
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTION CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE
NO LATER THAN 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT LIMITING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A FEW,
SMALL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CONSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-
4 FEET WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE TEXAS GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEAK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE COAST. THIS
FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT, BUT IT WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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