299
FXUS64 KLCH 112315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 97, DEPENDING WHERE RAIN
FALLS, RESULTING IN INDICES 99 TO 105F ACROSS THE AREA.
- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN SUNDAY WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AND
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AFTER A RATHER BUSY DAY SHIFT PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS, THERE NOW
ONLY REMAINS A SCATTERING OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTERMIXED. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE BITE FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION AS THE AIRMASS HAS WORKED OVER AND/OR MIXED IN SOME OF
THE WORKED OVER RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM EARLIER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WITH SUNDOWN, PER THE TYPICAL. A SHORTWAVE
PULSE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD BENEATH THE TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. AS THE HIGH TRANSLATES WEST, A WAVE
INDUCED BY SHORTWAVE INTERACTION APPEARS TO TRANSLATE OVERTOP THE
REGION. ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE
AIRMASS PARKED OVERHEAD HAS MANAGED TO SIDESTEP EVERY ATTEMPT TO
MIX DRY AIR INTO THE COLUMN. THE OBSERVED PWAT AT LAST NIGHT'S
RAOB REPORTED 2.51 INCHES... ABOVE THE AVERAGED MAXIMUM FOR THAT
PERIOD AND 0.01 INCHES ABOVE THE OBSERVED PWAT AT TS EDOUARD'S
LANDFALL LAST WEEK. RIGHT NOW WE'VE MIXED TO A BALMY 2.22 INCHES.
EXPECT ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS LOCALLY ENHANCED WITH THE WAVE. THUS, SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS.
FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL KEEP THINGS MOVING, LIMITING FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST BEFORE HEADING OUT. IF A
STORM RUMBLES NEAR TO YOU, TAKE THE TIME TO MOVE INLAND UNTIL IT
PASSES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND
CEILINGS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SW
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS STILL SQUEEZING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX
AND LA. THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT HAS DECREASED DUE TO STORMS
EARLIER EATING UP MOST OF THE ENERGY. HOWEVER, A ROGUE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY NEAR BPT AND LCH WHERE THE AIRMASS
IS LESS WORKED OVER. ANY CELLS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH SUNDOWN. CALM CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED AND
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOW VFR TO UPPER MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH SUNRISE
IN RESPONSE TO RENEWED MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTH
GULF. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EAST GULF SATURDAY AND
CENTRAL AND EAST GULF SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. ONLY SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WEAK ONSHORE
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE ANOMALOUSLY HUMID AIRMASS OVERTOP THE REGION WILL SEE A
RENEWED PUSH OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY ISOLATED DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY CONTAINED TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH, BUT SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CAN BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
CENTRAL LA. A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
AND THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT-HELPING RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
FALLING TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT EACH DAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page