361
FXUS64 KLCH 090555
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DESCENDS TOWARD THE COAST.
A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE, HOWEVER, FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS THE TOP CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY DRYING OUT
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE WILL SERVE AS A BROADER
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR MOISTURES INLAND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIVER OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEEDING ACROSS THE CWA AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE WEAK SFC-800MB FLOW OFF THE GULF HAS SATURATED THE
LOWER COLUMN LEADING TO OBSERVED PWATS OF IN EXCESS OF 2.00" PER
09TH/00Z LCH SOUNDING. CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SHOWN
THE CAPACITY TO TAKE HOLD OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION LEADING TO
ONGOING HAIL AND WIND THREAT AS NOTED BY THE MARGINAL(LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) SEVERE OUTLOOK BY THE SPC. SEPARATELY, FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT(LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) PER RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WPC. WHILE
SHORT TERM CONVECTION GUIDANCE HAS WAFFLED QUITE A BIT, ONE BIT OF
AGREEMENT IS THE ILLUSTRATION OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TOWARD THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST WARD- HENCE THE SLIGHT ERO RISK
ALONG EAST CENTRAL LA AND ACADIANA.
WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LOWER AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH ATMOSPHERE'S SHOWN ABILITY TO REALIZE
THOSE HIGH PWATS AMID ELEVATED INSTABILITY, INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
QUITE CHAOTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAVING MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION. APART
FROM SCATTERED ACTIVITY, AN ADDITIONAL MCS LIKE FEATURE OR CLUSTERED
MASS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THIS PIECE OF THE WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THEREFORE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POSSIBLE STORM TOTALS
BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY MORNING TREND HIGHER. QPF HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ON BROADER SCALE TO REFLECT MOST AREAS SEEING 0.5-1.00" OUTSIDE OF
TRAINING CONVECTION- WHICH REMAINS A STRONG POSSIBILITY GIVEN
ANTECEDENT RADAR TRENDS IN THIS PATTERN DESPITE HIGH CORFIDI
VECTORS. THUS, IT IS NOT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION THAT PROMPTS THE
HYDRO CONCERNS, BUT RATHER UP STREAM GROWTH WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES AS MOST CELLS APPEAR TO BE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE.
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS FROM THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON USHERING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OF ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE EVENING. THIS NEW PATTERN OF
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING BACK MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 80'S BY
THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TX/LA
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH FAVORS NEAR ZERO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
TAFS VARY GREATLY BY SITE WRT CEILINGS BUT OVERALL WILL PREVAIL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INTO DAWN. LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
PERIODICALLY IN HEAVY RA OR TS THROUGH THE MORNING. CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH LA AND NE TX EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID DAY. STILL SOME QUESTION OF EXACT COVERAGE, BUT 00Z/09TH
SOUNDING SHOWS A HIGHLY SATURATED PWATS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN
RATES. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL TODAY, HOWEVER, PERIODIC HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING TURNING WINDS OFFSHORE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE TODAY
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY ALTHOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY TURNING LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AN END FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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