914
FXUS64 KLCH 040531
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT, SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE ALL COMBINE
FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
- EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS, WILL
BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
FORMS ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF CAMERON.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
FORECAST AREA SEEMS TO BE STUCK IN A MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AND HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BRING IN RICH GULF
AIR. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE A CONNECTION WITH
TROPICAL EAST-PAC MOISTURE. SO, A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL
BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DAILY PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF 1.90 INCHES AND A MAJORITY OF THE TIME
OVER 2 INCHES, WHILE THE 100H-50H MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE OVER 80 PERCENT, TO GO ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD LAYERS
OVER 12K FEET. THEREFORE, A TROPICAL LIKE FEEL TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
MEANWHILE, A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING ABOUT VERY LITTLE INHIBITION
AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THAT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH DAYTIME
HEATING TO GET ACTIVITY GOING. ALSO, AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST, WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING AN ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE.
ON THURSDAY, CAMS SHOW ACTIVITY STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE
COAST AND GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE, WITH
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS HELPING TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY AND
MOVE TOWARD AND INLAND THE LOUISIANA OR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST BY
SATURDAY. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE TO THE EAST
OF WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES. SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS, HOWEVER AT
THE MOMENT, TIDE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
PREDICTED LEVELS AND NOT REACHING LEVELS FOR A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY MESOSCALE COLLISIONS WILL
BRING ABOUT QUICK INTENSITY UPTICKS AND POTENTIAL RAIN BURSTS, ALONG
WITH ALLOWING SOME TRAINING. THEREFORE, SOME HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN A SHORT PERIOD MAY OCCUR, AND IF THESE AMOUNTS FALL OVER URBAN
DRAINAGE AREAS, SOME STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
THE WEAKNESS MOVES AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FORMING. THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THEREFORE,
MAINLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE COAST TONIGHT AND MAY REACH TOWARD THE
KBPT AND KLCH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON AND HAVE A PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 04/18-24Z TO
COVER THIS.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH
CHANCES FOR RAIN, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THAT WILL BRING
WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN
CHECK. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ452-455-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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