971
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- PTC 1 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
SURGES OF UP TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
PTC 1 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR AS OF
10 AM THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON HAVE
INDICATED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST AND
THE STORM REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED WITH BANDING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF
THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GULF. BECAUSE OF THIS, LITTLE, IF ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE THE STORMS MAKES
"LANDFALL" SOMEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING. KEEP
IN MIND THAT WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BANDING SHEARED OFF TO
THE EAST, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN
THE AREA OF OFFICIAL LANDFALL.
LOCALLY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR HAS
REMAINED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS ARTHUR WORKS UP THE TEXAS COAST. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WITH ARTHUR REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. CAMS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA LATER TODAY WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM. PARTS OF THIS REGION WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL.
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH NHC, COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY'S TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST. GIVEN
THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS EAST OF GALVESTON, THIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN
A PRUDENT MEASURE.
COASTAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED WITH SURGE OF 2-4 FEET
ANTICIPATED ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLIER DEPENDING ON HOW THE BANDS OF ARTHUR EVOLVE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD, PULLED BY A LIFTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RIDGE EXPANDS OFFERING SUPPRESSION OF STORMS
FOR FATHERS DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS WILL DRIVE
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S, IT WILL GIVE THE REGION A
MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE CENTER OF TS ARTHUR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED WITH CONDITIONS VARYING GREATLY AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. AS THE CENTER PASSES TONIGHT, WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SW WINDS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS CLIMBING TO 8-12 FEET. SQUALLS AND RAIN BANDS
ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KNOTS AND 4-7 FEET RESPECTIVELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LARGELY END THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LANDFALL OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074-252>254.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ073-074-
252>254.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ241.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ615.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
516-615-616.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ615.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ616.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-
472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page