859
FXUS64 KLCH 300527
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT RISK MAINLY AT MODERATE OR LEVEL 2 OF 4.
MAX AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR THE HEAT INDEX WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES DAILY.
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A RETURN
TO A DAILY CHANCE FOR DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WATCH OUT FOR THOSE SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAR THUNDER ROAR,
THEN GO INDOORS. ALSO, TAKE IT EASY IF OUTDOORS FROM THE HEAT,
REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR IN AN
AIR CONDITIONED PLACE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH REGIONAL UPPER AIR ANALYSIS,
SHOW A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN PLACE. HOWEVER, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE VERY DRY AIR AND THE DENSE DUST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) IS BEGINNING TO MOVE WEST INTO TEXAS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY WITH THE DUST PLUME FROM THE SAL MOVING AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH DRY AND SINKING AIR THAT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY ISOLATED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE.
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES, WHICH IS
BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY POLICY, WITH THE AREA OUTLINED IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK FROM WPC, WHICH IS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON WEDNESDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP ALOFT AND HELP ENHANCE
DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND IT AND SOME WHAT OF A WEAKNESS
ALOFT. THEREFORE, DIURNAL AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY AGAIN WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND BEFORE EVENING HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES (FIREWORKS) TAKE PLACE.
THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. DAILY AFTERNOON MAX HEAT INDEX
RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES, WITH AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK
WHICH IS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4, AND MEANS AFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO THOSE WHO
ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
THEREFORE, OVER THE HOLIDAY, WATCH OUT FOR THE LIGHTNING DURING THE
DAYTIME, HEAR THUNDER ROAR GO INDOORS, AND TAKE IT EASY WITH THE
HEAT.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES, WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT BEST AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION
AGAIN WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT THE KAEX
TERMINAL WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY 30/11-14Z.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED CU AND VERY ISOLATED AT BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, AS WELL AS THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND RAINFALL WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BREAKS DOWN. OTHER THEN SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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