371
FXUS64 KLCH 101138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY MODERATE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
MILD CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES BESIDES THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A SHORT WAVE TRAVELING QUICKLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
THAT WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 100H-50H IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE AT
BEST.
SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY BEFORE
HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF
RETURN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
07/RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BRING ABOUT
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY.
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INCREASE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT
VALUES GETTING ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY NEARING 70 PERCENT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, PROGS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH
THE FRONT, THEREFORE, WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW COLD THE AIR MASS WILL BE BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE PUSH OF THE COLDER
AIR WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST OR STAY TO THE NORTH. 75TH-25TH WHISKER
PLOTS FROM THE NBM ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOW TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT OF NEARLY A 20F TO 30F DEGREE
DIFFERENCE. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM NUMBERS
THAT ARE CLOSE TO THE MEAN. THIS WOULD BRING NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO JUST THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON
MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
SEEING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND RAINFALL WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH AND MOVING TOWARD THE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
14Z. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS FOG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS AT ASOS STATIONS WHICH MAY ONLY
BE SAMPLING THE FOG INTERMITTENTLY. FOLLOWING THE FOG
DISSIPATION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHERLY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
BECOME GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER 23Z.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST OFFSHORE
WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS AGAIN
BECOME ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALSO, NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL BRING IN
SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES NEAR 60 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
THURSDAY AROUND 40 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 72 42 63 49 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 71 40 62 47 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 73 43 65 51 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...66
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