568
FXUS64 KLCH 231856
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
156 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT AND WARM INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 20-35% EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA PERSISTS ACROSS ESSENTIALLY
THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, YIELDING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH THE 18Z
LCH SOUNDING INDICATING 0.89 INCHES PWAT, NEAR THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID TO LATE OCTOBER. DEWPOINTS SIT IN THE 40S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA, RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DRY LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT
BUT GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR
AREA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY CONTINENTAL AIR AND KEEP
ANY GULF MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT
PWAT AT OR BELOW 0.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH IS BELOW
10TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR 50 INLAND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE BROADENS OUT AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO
DEVELOP ALOFT. GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY REAL CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
DOES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ALLOWS THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA TO TURN MORE ONSHORE. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE MONTH AS LONGER-
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE PERHAPS AS SOON AS HALLOWEEN WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
INHERENTLY VERY HIGH AT THIS LEAD TIME.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT ALL SITES, BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
WITH 5-10 KT EASTERLY BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN REGION IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS TO THE SOUTH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN,
RESULTING IN WINDS INCREASING TO THE 15-25 KT RANGE SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM CAMERON EASTWARD FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE, THOUGH SMALL
CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OPEN GULF WATERS.
THESE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, AFTER WHICH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
PERSISTENT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
DRY OVER THE AREA, WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SKIES CLEAR AND
ALLOWS TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S FOR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH DROPPING INTO THE 20-
35 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT
GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH, FUELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VERY DRY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA CURRENTLY IN SEVERE OR EXTREME DROUGHT. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
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