976
FXUS64 KLCH 201738
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BRINGS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
- THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES AND THERE IS A RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL INTERESTS IN FLOOD PRONE LOW-LYING AREAS OR FLOOD PRONE
URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREA, ALONG WITH THOSE ALONG STREAM AND
RIVER BASINS SHOULD KEEP AWARE OF THE LATEST FLOOD RISK
FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND TO THE ARK-LA-TEX, WHILE ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS SITUATED BENEATH A MOIST SWRLY FLOW, BETWEEN TROUGHING TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST. SAID COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY TOWARDS CENLA TODAY, WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD IN THE FLOW ALOFT, INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AS WELL AS
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERHEAD TO PROVIDING AMPLE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. WHILE THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH ON FRIDAY, THE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH MORE SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, INTERACTING WITH THE
MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD AS THEY DO SO. THIS WILL,
UNSURPRISINGLY, KEEP AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST MEMORIAL DAY OR POSSIBLE A BIT LONGER.
AREA RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS, WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE OVER SOUTH LA. GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
STRATIFORM RAINFALL TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, WHILE THE STORMS OVER SOUTH LA BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND
IN COVERAGE WHILE SPREADING INLAND. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL
FORTUNATELY NOT BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, IT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME, POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREA OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS OUTLINED THE ENTIRE CWA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, AS A RESULT, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WE CAN PRETTY MUCH RINSE
AND REPEAT THIS FORECAST, AS THIS UNSETTLED AND MOISTURE RICH
PATTERN CONTINUES. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH, NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALLOWING ANY SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WPC HAS OUTLINED THE CWA IN EITHER A MARGINAL
AND/OR SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
AS A RESULT. TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY, FORECASTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 2-6" (TOTAL FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD)
HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH IS
WHERE FLOODING ISSUES WOULD COME IN TO PLAY. ADDING MONDAY INTO
THE MIX, WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN, AS A MORE ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE, VERY LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED AS SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EACH DAY, WHILE A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MESSY WEATHER PERIOD AHEAD WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS, PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS, AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING, CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE I-10 TERMINALS, AFFECTING AEX LATER IN
THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN WITH FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, ALL CAPABLE OF REDUCING VIS AS THEY PASS OVER THE
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND 5-15 KTS AND SEAS
AROUND 1-4 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL, AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BRINGING IN RICH AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 70 PERCENT OR GREATER EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PROVIDE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17
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