163
FXUS64 KLCH 021143
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TODAY, BRINGING A 20 TO 60% CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOME AREAS, BUT
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
- ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 15 TO 30% RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE CALM BUT WARM,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES LOWER. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TEMPERATURE RELIEF, WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE "RELIEF" WILL INSTEAD COME FROM THE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
HELP LOWER DEWPOINTS BY AROUND 7 TO 12 DEGREES AND CONSEQUENTLY
REDUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. NEVERTHELESS, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE MAKING AN UNWELCOME
RETURN ON MONDAY.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER NEAR THE COAST WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALOFT, THE AREA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SECONUS. INCREASING MOISTURE, THE
SUBTLE WEAKNESS ALOFT, AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK, MORESO ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
AND FAIRLY UNIFORM EACH DAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE WORKWEEK; HOWEVER, AREA WIDE HEAT
HAZARDS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COOL FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. IT HAS
MOSTLY BEEN A DRY FROPA, BUT NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS MET WITH MOIST
AIRMASS OFF OF THE GULF THERE IS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND SOUTH.
THIS AREA OF DISTURBING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTH GULF ALONG WITH THE FRONT. THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING
VERY MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS AT TERMINALS TODAY. ONLY
ACADIANA WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH ROUGHLY
13Z, THEY WILL CLEAR THEREAFTER.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTED MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEARING SKIES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 7 KNOT RANGE THROUGH
SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNDOWN WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ELEVATED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES TODAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 50 PERCENT. WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT
OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...11
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