843
FXUS64 KLCH 302327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A HARDIN
COUNTY TO VERNON TO RAPIDES PARISH LINE FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4
AM SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM TODAY TO SATURDAY AM.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION.
- COOL CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO CENLA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AM AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS COULD BE AS LOW AS LOW TO MID 60S FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 190.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED, A CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENLA AND ANOTHER ALONG I-10. THE NORTHERN AREA IS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS AND THE SOUTHERN IS
ALONG A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY. BOTH AREAS HAVE A ROBUST AIRMASS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND CAPE TO OPENLY USE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. THUS, ANTICIPATE A SCENARIO PLAYING OUT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS SEEN NORTH OF OUR REGION YESTERDAY. CORRIDORS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG, DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST BUT IS NOT LIKELY.
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH SUNDOWN BUT ACTIVE JET ALOFT AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST COULD KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DECENTLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT AS SFC CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE CONDITIONS REACHING THE SURFACE. THERE WILL EXIST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH, IF DOWNDRAFTS CAN REACH THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
INTO THE REGION WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SET TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA WIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A HARDIN TO BEAUREGARD AND
RAPIDES PARISH LINE HAVE ALREADY OR WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM RECENT DAYS TO TODAY. CONSIDERING FURTHER RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TOMORROW, THESE AREAS ARE NOW UNDER A FLOOD
WATCH FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE FURTHER REGIONS BASED
ON RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
LOW WATER CATCH BASINS, ITS UNLIKELY THAT REGIONS VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE LAST OF THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. BEHIND THE RAIN
IS OVERCAST SKIES THAT WILL STAY NEAR MVFR/VFR HEIGHTS. NEAR
SUNRISE, AROUND 12Z A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BRINING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM.
AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS THE REST OF THE TAF FORECAST WILL BE IFR
WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A BOUNDARY SLUGGISHLY MOVING OVER THE REGION SHOULD SINK DOWN
INTO COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS COASTAL WATERS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM WEST TO EAST MID DAY THRU
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONSHORE WINDS TO RESUME AT THE START OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TWO LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED, A CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENLA AND ANOTHER ALONG I-10. THE NORTHERN AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS AND THE SOUTHERN IS
ALONG A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY. BOTH AREAS HAVE A ROBUST AIRMASS WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AND CAPE TO OPENLY USE WITHIN AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. THUS, ANTICIPATE A SCENARIO PLAYING OUT SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS SEEN NORTH OF OUR REGION YESTERDAY. CORRIDORS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG, DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. AN EMBEDDED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST BUT IS NOT LIKELY.
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH SUNDOWN BUT ACTIVE JET ALOFT
AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST COULD KEEP LIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DECENTLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT AS SFC CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE
FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS REACHING THE SURFACE. THERE WILL EXIST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH, IF DOWNDRAFTS CAN REACH THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN
INTO THE REGION WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SET TO ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD TOTAL 2 TO 4 INCHES AREA WIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A HARDIN TO BEAUREGARD AND
RAPIDES PARISH LINE HAVE ALREADY OR WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM RECENT DAYS TO TODAY. CONSIDERING FURTHER RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TOMORROW, THESE AREAS ARE NOW UNDER A FLOOD
WATCH FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
THIS WATCH AREA MAY BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE FURTHER REGIONS BASED
ON RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY. DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
LOW WATER CATCH BASINS, ITS UNLIKELY THAT REGIONS VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LAZ027-028-030.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ450-452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ455-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...14
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