958
FXUS64 KLCH 190615
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NIL
RAIN CHANCES, AND INCREASING TEMPS / HEAT RISK ARE EXPECTED.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY,
HITTING THE MID TO UPPER 90S MON - THU. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE
FROM 105 TO 112+F THIS WEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED.
- NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES NOT LIKELY TO RETURN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHO NEEDS A WEATHER SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP? IT'S THE TIME OF YEAR WE
CAN ALL TAKE 2 STEPS OUTSIDE AND INSTANTLY PICTURE THE OPPRESSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE DOME PARKED OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT HAZE FROM THE TEXAS EML
ADVECTING OVERHEAD TO REINFORCE THE CONVECTION OVEN EFFECT; DUST
ACTING TO SOP UP SOME OF THIS RICH LOUISIANA HUMIDITY. THE HUMAN
EXPERIENCE IS ALL TOO REAL DURING THE NORTH GULF SUMMER. FOR
THOSE TRULY VISUAL-OBSERVERS, SURFACE MAPS, MESOANALYSIS,
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT PLUMES AND RAOBS ALL PAINT THE SAME
IMAGERY.
WHILE THE UPPER HIGH ISN'T THE ALL-CONSUMING HIGH PRESSURE "DOME"
ECLIPSING THE CENTRAL US LIKE WE NORMALLY SEE, THE WEAK UPPER HIGH
AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE HIGH ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND
FREE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DRIVEN BY SFC HIGH IS ALSO KEEPING A RICH FETCH OF DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR SPREAD OVERHEAD, FURTHER EATING AWAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE
COMING DAYS. FLOW WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY THIS CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS AS WELL, KEEPING MOISTURE FROM SURGING BACK INLAND AND
THUS ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE FURTHER FROM TODAY THROUGH
MAJORITY OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY, BUT THE "UPPER 90S" METRIC WILL EXPAND TO
MORE AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPS WILL VERY LIKELY
DRIVE DAYTIME HEAT INDICES INTO THE 108 TO 112F RANGE THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK AND HEAT ADVISORIES WOULD BE NEEDED.
HEAT RISK IS ESPECIALLY PERTINENT THIS WEEK AS THESE TEMPS CAN AND
WILL IMPACT MOST INDIVIDUALS NEGATIVELY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
SEEING THESE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THIS SUMMER, SO NOW IS THE
TIME TO PREPARE.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DEVELOPING IN THE EAST GULF
WHICH COULD SEE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF IN THE
COMING DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AND FETCH OF DRY AIR SHOULD SHIELD THE
NORTHWEST GULF FROM ANY WESTWARD MARCH OF THIS SYSTEM. DON'T COUNT
ON IT TO BREAK THIS HEAT WAVE, BUT IT IS ANOTHER FEATURE WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING! ONCE AGAIN, NO IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST ARE ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. LOW TO BREEZY WESTERLIES,
DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW TO OCCASIONALLY ELEVATED SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWEST GULF, AN AREA OF BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE EAST GULF. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF EARLY THIS WEEK. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS TO NORTHWEST GULF WATERS, HOWEVER, WINDS
AND SEAS COULD SEE A LOCALIZED INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST. WEST
WINDS BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM TEXAS IS ALSO ACTING TO SQUASH ANY
RAIN CHANCES AND LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN. DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11
AVIATION...11
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