137
FXUS64 KLCH 121739
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1239 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER.
- AIR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INCREASING WITH
THE DAILY HEAT RISK RISING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEARING EXTREME LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE MAINLY DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE ONSHORE.
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE VERMILION AND ATCHAFALAYA BAY AREAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET, WITH STABLE CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN DRIER CONDITIONS
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENT SINKING AIR. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN GULF MOISTURE, HOWEVER, THE SINKING AIR
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH LACK OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MORE SOLAR HEATING DURING THE
DAYTIME, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
FORECASTING THE DAILY DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HOW MUCH MIXING
THAT OCCURS AND HOW MUCH IT LOWERS THE DEW POINT WILL BE THE FACTOR
IN THE HEAT RISK. AS FOR NOW, HEAT RISK LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE
MODERATE (2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IT NEARING EXTREME LEVELS (4 OUT OF 4) EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE LOOKS FAR TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AT AEX
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL BE AT NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD IN THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER
ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM AT BEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES AS WELL AS INCREASE THE HEAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND PLENTY OF DAYTIME SOLAR HEATING, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DRIER WITH INCREASING KBDI VALUES. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE HUMID CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...64
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