392
FXUS64 KLCH 171628
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE COMMITTED IN THE LATE MORNING
FORECAST UPDATED. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BEING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS THE REGION.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER OF TX COUNTIES/LA PARISHES IN THE CWA WITH HEAT
INDICES ALREADY BETWEEN 97-105F AS OF 11 AM AND EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE 107-110F RANGE. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE HEAT ADVISORY
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COASTAL SW LA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM THE
GULF ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES NEAR 100F ALREADY AND EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE 105-108F RANGE.
OTHER FOCUS ON THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE WAS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
THINKING IN TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. INITIALLY, CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SEAS-BREEZE COASTAL AREAS/ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET, ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A W-E ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER SE OK AND S AR. CONVECTION WITH THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NE TX AND N LA
DURING PEAK HEATING. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. ACCORDINGLY, POPS DECREASE QUICKLY FROM NORTH (60
PERCENT NEAR ALEXANDRIA) TO SOUTH (20 PERCENT FOR LAFAYETTE) LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
JRK
SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING OF
LOUISIANA WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AT THIS TIME. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH IN ARKANSAS AN AREA OF STORMS IS PUSHING DOWN INTO
MISSISSIPPI. MORNING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF AS DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING AROUND
THE MID 70S ATTM.
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE DOWN
INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LATE EVENING/ OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY. AS
A RESULT OF THIS BOUNDARY THE REGION IS MOVING INTO A WET PERIOD.
FOR TODAY THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
AFTN TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. LATEST PROJECTION HAS THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A NEG BUOYANCY AND PWATS
AROUND 1.70 INCHES FOR TODAY. THE HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL RANGE UP
TO 109 DEGREES. INDIVIDUALS OUTSIDE NEED TO TAKE BREAKS AND
REMAIN HYDRATED FROM THE HEAT EFFECTS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THAT WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH AND INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW.
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM WINDS. AFTERNOON PWAT WILL BE AROUND
2.25 INCHES AND CAPE REACHING 1839 J/KG, STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
MINOR FLOODING WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS.
THE STORMS TOMORROW WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR COOLS THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
A DISTURBED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BUT BREAKS BACK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US AND ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF THE MIDWESTERN LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH PWATS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES (OR ROUGHLY FROM
THE 75 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT OF THE MOVING AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST
PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY). THIS, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
FORCED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAYTIME, ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT POPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND
UPWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STALLED FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS
SW AND S CENTRAL LA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY, AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NE MEXICO OR S
TX BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SE TX OR SW LA.
24
LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]
A DISTURBED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY, PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, WEAK MIDLEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BUT BREAKS BACK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US AND ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLANK OF THE MIDWESTERN LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED OVER THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH PWATS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.2 INCHES (OR ROUGHLY FROM
THE 75 PERCENT TO 90 PERCENT OF THE MOVING AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST
PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY). THIS, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING, WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
FORCED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
DAYTIME, ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO
A MODEST INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. CONVECTION WILL BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE WEAK FRONT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT POPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND
UPWARD DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AS THE STALLED FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT COMBINE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS
SW AND S CENTRAL LA TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS INTERIOR SE TX. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY, AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD NE MEXICO OR S
TX BY SATURDAY. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR A LOW (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SE TX OR SW LA.
24
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
SENT A TAF UPDATE JUST BEFORE 15Z. A W WIND 5-10 KT THIS MORNING
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE S-SW FIRST THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLCH AS THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MOVE INLAND AND THEN ELSEWHERE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
NORTHERN LA. A W-E LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS FAR NE TX AND
N LA THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, BUT COULD
REACH NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS
WHY VCTS WAS ONLY MENTIONED FOR KAEX FOR A SHORT WINDOW FROM
02-05Z.
JRK
MARINE
LIGHT TO SOMETIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH LOW SEAS WILL
PERSIST OVER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO TODAY, INCREASING ON THURSDAY AND
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR
STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 99 75 89 73 / 10 60 80 70
LCH 93 76 90 73 / 10 10 70 70
LFT 94 76 90 74 / 10 20 80 70
BPT 96 76 93 74 / 0 10 60 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>029.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-259-
260.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24/JRK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JRK
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