353
FXUS64 KLCH 190502
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR FRIDAY
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IMPACTED PARTS OF AVOYELLES PARISH OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WITH RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES. UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE STILL NOT DONE WITH THE RAIN THREAT
AS THE WPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR
FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION, THE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES OVER 3,000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER WINDS SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
WEAK SIDE, LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. THAT WILL CAUSE STORMS THAT FORM
TOMORROW TO BE LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
DOWNBURSTS FROM COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS. WITH THE HIGH CAPE VALUES AND
DEW POINTS NEAR 80 THE WARM CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES. WITH THE PREVIOUS DAY'S FLOODING, ANY
RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ON SATURDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE PLAINS,
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD IN THE GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY TO FRIDAY
STAYING BELOW 20%. THIS BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE MUCH
APPRECIATED.
WITH CLEARING SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. STRONG SOUTHERN FLOW HAS KEPT OUR DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S, LEADING TO HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 108. BECAUSE OF THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY. LESS ROBUST MOISTURE
TRANSPORTATION WILL CAUSE OUR DEW POINTS TO LOWER OVER THE
WEEKEND; WHILE IT WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND
HAZE CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO FORM WITH PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH WAVES BELOW
6 FEET. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DUE TO ABUNDANT RAINFALL AND HIGH
HUMIDITY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...14
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