232
FXUS64 KLCH 060520
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOG
WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY RECEIVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES, HIGH MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS
AROUND 60, AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. IN
ADDITION, 500 MB WINDS ARE LIGHT, BELOW 5 KNOTS, WHICH IS ALSO A
NUDGE THAT WIDESPREAD FOG CAN FORM. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THE DENSITY OF THE FOG IS STILL A QUESTION WITH
PROBABILITY SHOWING SIMILAR CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE
AND 1/4 MILE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND DECREASING TO THE EAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MORNING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER CALM WITH THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAIN COMING ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN ACADIANA
BUT POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 30%.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 80S THURSDAY AND
THE MID-80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE
HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THE BIG STORY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF
COLD AIR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WON’T BE MUCH OF A RAINMAKER, BUT WE
COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ACADIANA. OTHERWISE, RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE YEAR IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH A 40% CHANCE THE LOW
WILL BE IN THE 20S IN ALEXANDRIA. A POST-FRONTAL HIGH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
DENSE FOG IS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH LIFR VIS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED CLOSE TO SUNRISE. AFTER
SUNRISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
DENSE FOG MAY IMPACT LAKES AND BAYS THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY
BELOW 1 NM. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
EARLY ON SUNDAY KICKING UP WINDS AND WAVES. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED ALONG WITH LOW WATER ADVISORIES TO START NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
RAIN WILL BE SPARSE NEXT WEEK WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BUT WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND LOW
WINDS, FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, A COLD, DRY
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN PLACE. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 20%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 51 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 78 57 77 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 79 56 78 64 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 80 59 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ027-028-
030-031-073-074-141-142-241-242.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ180-201-
259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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