935  
FXUS64 KLCH 301746  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BEFORE STORMS DEVELOPE AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LA TODAY WHERE  
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE 105°F TO 111°F.  
 
- STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, INCREASING  
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAKNESS MOVES OVERHEAD AND  
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE REGION.  
 
- DUE TO AIRMASS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, DAILY RAIN  
CHANCES WILL BRING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL  
FORECAST AREAS THRU SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
RAP 500MB ANALYSIS PAINTS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD WARMING TEMPS IN THE MID  
90S. INCREASED MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM WEAKNESS TO THE EAST,  
AND THUS, THERE ARE WIDESPREAD HIS IN THE 100 TO 105F RANGE, WITH  
THOSE IN CENLA ALREADY SEEING HIS OVER 108F.  
 
WEAKNESS CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SPARK  
OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK, BUT AN ISOLATED  
DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE-INTENSE  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER SUNDOWN AND WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF STORMS.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.  
THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVING NEAR THE REGION. THIS  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EACH DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK;  
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS, EVEN WITH AREA  
MOISTURE, SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105F  
RANGE. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AWAY FROM CLOUD  
COVER, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HIGHER DAYTIME  
HEAT INDEX VALUES.  
 
AS ALWAYS, IF YOU'RE OUTDOORS, LISTEN FOR THUNDER AND IF IT ROARS,  
GO INDOORS! YOU'RE WITHIN DISTANCE OF A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES!  
 
ALSO, DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE, THESE CELLS COULD CARRY VERY HIGH  
RAIN RATES. IF YOU'RE CAUGHT BENEATH ONE THAT DOESN'T MOVE OR IN  
AN AREA WHERE THEY CONTINUE MOVING OVERHEAD, YOUR FLOODING RISKS  
WILL INCREASE. REMAIN WEATHER AWARE OVER THE COMING DAYS.  
 
11  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, FURTHER  
BECOMING A FOCUS FOR DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE  
FRONT LINGERS INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT  
BY THE MID WEEK. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CARRY THE HIGHEST DAYTIME  
RAIN CHANCES WITH MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY SEEING A DIMINISHING OF  
CHANCES EACH DAY.  
 
THESE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK THRU THE  
LONGTERM. HIGHS SHOULD RUN FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY.  
AGAIN, THERE WILL REMAIN THE RISK OF ENHANCED DAYTIME HEAT INDEX  
VALUES OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AWAY FROM CLOUD COVER.  
 
11  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS BREAKING DOWN, BUT REMAINS SITUATED OVERHEAD  
STRONGLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES SO FAR TODAY. AS THE HIGH  
BREAKS DOWN TOWARDS THE WEST, WEAKNESS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. THERE IS LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF WHERE CLUSTERS WILL MOVE OR DEVELOP,  
THUS VICINITY THUNDER WAS INCLUDED THROUGH THE EARLIER AFTERNOON  
HOURS. GUIDANCE PLACES THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING ORGANIZED  
THUNDERSTORM RISK AT LOWER ACADIANA TERMINALS, SO TEMPO GROUPS  
WERE INCLUDED HERE.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MONITORED AND  
AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS.  
 
11  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVING NEARBY WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES OVER COASTAL WATERS WILL PREVAIL  
OVER THE COMING DAYS BENEATH LINGERING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS. WINDS  
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW, OUTSIDE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND  
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
REGION. COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST, VERY HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING TO THE EAST, VERY HOT AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS DRY AIRMASS TO  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES  
INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.  
 
ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING  
DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVES NEARBY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 74 97 75 97 / 20 30 10 50  
LCH 77 95 78 95 / 30 40 20 50  
LFT 76 93 78 94 / 30 60 20 70  
BPT 77 95 76 95 / 30 40 10 40  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-  
143.  
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM....11  
AVIATION...11  
 
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