853
FXUS64 KLCH 060534
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- MUCH LOWER STORM PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
YESTERDAY EVENINGS STORMS MANAGED TO DUMP BETWEEN 1-4
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS A SIZABLE SWATH OF THE REGION WHILE PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, COPIOUS LIGHTNING AND EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL. A FEW THOUSAND PEOPLE REPORTEDLY LOST ELECTRICITY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, BUT THIS OFFICE RECEIVED NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE
BEYOND A FEW TREES DOWN.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN A QUASISTATIONARY STATE OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY
OR TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INITIALIZATION. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO LINGER LATER INTO THE EVENING, BUT AS
WAS THE CASE TONIGHT, ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM AROUND
SUNSET WITH ALL STORMS LARGELY ENDED BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GRADUALLY DISPLACING THE TROUGH WHICH WILL
THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT, THAT
SADLY WON'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS, WILL ALSO WORK
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE STORMS
AT BAY WILL ALSO LIMIT CLOUD COVER ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THERE'S BEEN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN POPS WITHIN THE NBM GUIDANCE THIS
WEEKEND LIKELY OWING TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS LIFTING MUCH DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVERCOMING THE
WEAKENING, BUT STILL PRESENT, RIDGE ALOFT. THIS RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN POPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST BY 15Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AFTER 14Z AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOWS THAT MAY
RESULT IN RAPID CHANGES IN WIND GUSTS AND WIND DIRECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER 22Z ALTHOUGH SOME
STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. AWAY FROM
STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS YIELDING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE
WEEK. WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FEWER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS ALOFT
KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 60 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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