360
FXUS64 KLCH 181733
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102 AND
112F. A HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT MID-
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS RESULTING IN LIGHT
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS
RATHER DRY FOR MID-JULY, WITH SATELLITE AND MESOANALYSIS DERIVED
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES (APPROXIMATELY 25TH PERCENTILE).
THIS COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IS ACTING
TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 70S,
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 102 TO 106 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN FURTHER WARMING
TREND OVER OUR AREA. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM
BECOMING TOO EXTREME IS THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS,
AS NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS RECENT UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE A BIT WITH
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW. THAT SAID, IT WILL BE
HOT, AND HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS ARE URGED PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE
INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ANYONE WORKING OR
SPENDING LONG PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK, WITH
LREF GUIDANCE INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 95TH TO 99TH
PERCENTILE VALUES BY MIDWEEK. ACCORDINGLY, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO EVEN LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL FOCUS TOWARDS OUR CENTRAL LA
PARISHES, WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 100F ON THESE DAYS
CURRENTLY EXCEED 50%. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS PERIOD FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE CWA, WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FURTHER INLAND COUNTIES/PARISHES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WHILE THIS DISTURBANCE DOES HAVE A
MODERATE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE (40 PERCENT
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS PER NHC), ALL PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM OUR AREA REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE INTO OUR REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WITH LREF MEAN PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.9-2.0 INCHES BY THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOES LOOK TO HOLD IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS TIME WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES
DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING A GRADUAL
RETURN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT AEX NEAR SUNRISE OTHERWISE NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-12 KT AND SEAS OF 1-2 FT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEARLY ZERO THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS, AFTERNOON RH MINIMA WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH VALUES BELOW 40 PERCENT
POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST TX AND CENTRAL LA EACH AFTERNOON
STARTING MONDAY. THAT BEING SAID, LIGHT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...14
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