114
FXUS64 KLCH 052348
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
548 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER.
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
YESTERDAY LAFAYETTE SAW RECORD RAINFALL, WITH LFT REPORTING 4.87
INCHES! LOOKING FORWARD TO THE FORECAST, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. ALOFT, UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST, AND WE NOW HAVE MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH THE WEAKER SUPPORT, RH VALUES AT THE
LOW AND MID-LEVELS ARE BOTH WELL ABOVE 80%. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS WEAK UPSLOPE ASCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, UNTIL THE FRONT IN THE GULF "WASHES OUT" AND DRY
AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW
(~10%) WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DURING THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO PULL MORE GULF AIR NORTH. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO THE MID-60S ON SUNDAY, AND IT WILL FEEL ALMOST MUGGY
ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
TO START THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT MUCH CALMER WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE THING THAT WON'T BE
CALM ARE THE TEMPERATURE SWINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE
RAPIDLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM PASSING COLD FRONTS
DUELS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF. TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ROLLERCOASTER WE WILL BE GOING ON, WE WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT IN
SE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA (75%) WITH LOW- END CHANCES ALONG
I-10 (~30%). BUT BY THURSDAY, LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. HIGHS WILL SIMILARLY SWING, AND WE EXPECT
HIGHS NEXT WEEK TO GO FROM THE MID-50S TO LOW 70S. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL STAY CONSISTENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST, WITH PWATS STAYING
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE STARTED TO SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN EVENT COMING ON FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN THAT FAR OUT IS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD. LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT BEST CHANCES ARE
AT ARA AND LFT, THE FURTHEST TERMINALS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
NORTH OF THE REGION.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WITH LOW CIGS TO MATCH. HOWEVER, AS DRY
AIR LEAKS IN OVERHEAD, CLOUD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THINK 900 TO 1500 FEET RATHER THAN 500
FEET.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 38 60 47 68 / 10 10 10 20
LCH 44 64 53 74 / 30 20 10 20
LFT 44 62 52 73 / 40 40 10 30
BPT 44 66 54 74 / 20 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11
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