607
FXUS64 KLCH 090542
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-110.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES THAT
COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A
SPRAWLING 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS IN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING, AS WELL AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SURFACE, THE CWA IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH
IS YIELDING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, WITH RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.0-2.2 INCH RANGE THIS EVENING.
ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS LEFT. THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
COOL TO NEAR SATURATION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW AREAS OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG OR MIST, PARTICULARLY ANY INLAND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN TODAY, BUT THIS LOOKS QUITE ISOLATED. DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
SUNRISE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE COLUMN PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
LREF MEAN PWAT DECREASES TO 1.7 INCHES WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES/PARISHES, BUT HOLDS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DAY OF GENERALLY REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AREA-WIDE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WHERE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGEST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE
RIDGE AND DRIER AIR AND CLOSER TO THE GULF TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES IT MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
WITH HREF MEAN SBCAPE ONLY AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG THE COAST. AS A
RESULT, UPDRAFTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS VIGOROUS THAN EARLIER THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT DO FORM WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS GIVEN MODELED DCAPE IN THE 800-
1000 J/KG RANGE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S
INLAND.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. AS IT
DOES SO, THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP LAYER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA THAT WILL ALLOW FOR PWATS
TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES AREA-WIDE (CLIMATOLOGICAL 80TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER). THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL ALL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BENEFICIAL, BUT GIVEN
THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS. WPC HAS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
A FEW DEGREES WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO START BUILDING BACK WESTWARD
TOWARDS OUR AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE RETURN OF RIDGING AND DECREASE IN
CONVECTION, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TICK BACK UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. THOUGH WE MAY BE IN METEOROLOGICAL FALL, IT WILL
STILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON THE HORIZON
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
64/SILAS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT. VERY
LOW THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TONIGHT AT AEX THAT COULD PERHAPS
LOWER VIS TO MVFR, BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
LA, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW SO HAVE LEFT THIS POSSIBILITY OUT OF THE
TAF. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
AROUND BPT/LCH. THIS THREAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED FOR LFT/ARA
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS LOWER IN THIS AREA, BUT THIS MAY NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF CYCLES.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL PATTERN OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY, EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MINRH EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE
45-60 PERCENT INLAND AND 60-75 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
HELP IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64
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