796
FXUS64 KLCH 071729
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA MONDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 107-110.
- WHILE STILL HOT, AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS ENOUGH TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
- DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (30-80%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HAPPY LABOR DAY! THOSE CELEBRATING OUTDOORS TODAY MAY CONTEND WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS
JUTTING ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASING
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL OFFER A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 106-112. EVEN WHILE CELEBRATING, CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING.
THE FAIRLY SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT COMES COURTESY OF PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS OFFERING SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS WHILE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION (00Z KLCH RAOB MEASURED A 2.33
PWAT). WITH WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, STORMS WILL HAVE AN
EASIER GO OF DEVELOPING AND PLENTY OF ENERGY TO GO ALONG WITH THEM GIVEN
THE FORECAST TEMPS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE REGION IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS STRONG, BUT
GENERALLY UNSUPPORTED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COME CRASHING
BACK DOWN AS MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL QUICKLY LOSE STEAM
AFTER ABOUT 7 PM WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY HOLDING
ON INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE LIFTS JUST FAR
ENOUGH OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
TRAJECTORY AS TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. THANKFULLY, THERE IS NO INDICATION
AT PRESENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING MORE THAN A RAIN
ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM. RAIN THAT MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, STILL VERY MUCH NEEDS. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR, DARE
I SAY IT, SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
JONES
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING LFT
AND ARA BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z. ELSEWHERE, PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE LOWER, BUT COULD STILL BRIEFLY IMPACT AEX, LCH
OR BPT. THERE IS A LOW, BUT NON ZERO RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLLAPSING CELLS PUSH STRONG WINDS INTO THE GROUND.
THESE WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED, BUT POTENTIALLY SEVERE. STORMS
WILL WANE AFTER 23Z WITH A FEW POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATE
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF LFT AND ARA.
AWAY FROM STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
LOW ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
AS WEAK, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST INLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM EAST TO WEST THIS WEEK WILL PRODUCE DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEK AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD HAS PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT
DROUGHT RELIEF OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA REMAIN IN ONGOING DROUGHT. RAIN THIS WEEK SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE
DEFICIT.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-
055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-
515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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