317
FXUS64 KLCH 051138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AS A COASTAL LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH POCKETS OF UP TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR FILTERING IN THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY
- DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AS A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT ACADIANA WITH
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH
WEAKNESS ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH LOW AND MID-LEVEL RH VALUES ABOVE 75%.
THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PUT AN END
TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ANY REMAINING CONVECTION REMAINING
OFFSHORE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY DESPITE THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
RAIN WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. OVERALL,
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS FOR WET AND COLD CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE CALM DUE TO
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS BACK DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE
GULF AND PUSHES WARM MARINE AIR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN
RESPONSE, WITH OUR HIGHS BREAKING BACK INTO THE 70S AND OUR LOWS
INTO THE 50S. THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
BE BENIGN AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND HALF AN INCH AND
POPS WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
THE COMBINATION OF AN EASTWARD DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND A
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. LFT AND ARA
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION BEING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO MAINTAIN IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING BEFORE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO IFR AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
JONES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 48 40 60 47 / 20 20 10 10
LCH 50 45 63 53 / 40 30 20 10
LFT 50 45 60 52 / 40 40 40 10
BPT 52 45 65 53 / 30 20 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ430-432-
435-436.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...66
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