961
FXUS64 KLCH 160533
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1233 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO BE ON THE
EDGE OF A GULF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BRING MAINLY A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS KEEPING A CAP IN PLACE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO FORM, HOWEVER, THE CAP WILL LIMIT
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH THAT WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK PREFERRED.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE GULF WILL FLATTEN AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP MOVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
BOTH EAST PAC AND WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PICKED UP AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
MOISTENING AIRMASS WILL HELP ERODE THE CAP AND ALONG WITH FRONTAL
LIFT HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MIX IN WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF 1.6 INCHES AND NEAR THE MAX MOVING VALUE OF 1.9
INCHES. MEANWHILE, MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED
TO BE ABOVE 80 PERCENT. WHICH MEANS ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD
DURING THE NIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO DECREASE AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD
ACADIANA AND THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT FALL WITH THAT SCENARIO HAVE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF A BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TO
OPELOUSAS LINE WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1
INCH. THE PROBABILITY OF A "WETTING" RAIN OR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
1/4 OF AN INCH IS OVER 50 PERCENT IN THAT AREA, AND PROBABILITY
OF OVER 1 INCH IS 30 PERCENT IN THAT AREA.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MEAN WIND FIELD DECREASES AND DOES BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE THETA-E RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EVENING HOURS,
AND IF ANY STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY
FALL FOR A LENGTH OF TIME AND THE NBM SHOWS HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES IF THIS OCCURS. THEREFORE, WPC DOES HAVE A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) DURING THE
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
WILL MOVE IN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOWS
AND HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMS. ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT
AND SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRING ABOUT SOME DEGREE OF FIRE
DANGER, HOWEVER A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.
BY MID WEEK, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. A MORE ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
07/RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MOISTURE UNDER THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
VERY LIGHT, HOWEVER AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES STAYING
ABOVE SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SITUATION POINTS TO MVFR CEILINGS
FROM LOW CLOUDS RATHER THAN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
07/RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SATURDAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LIGHT TO MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
ALTHOUGH FUELS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VARIOUS DEGREES OF
DROUGHT CONTINUES, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT,
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT IN CHECK THROUGH
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY
BRING SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA A WETTING RAIN. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07
AVIATION...07
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