064
FXUS64 KLCH 061130
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY DUE TO A
COLD FRONT.
- HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS
A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH A
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT EARLIER ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR. A SHORT
WAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS HELPING TO
ADVANCE THE FRONT.
TODAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH BOUND, ENTERING THE EAST TX
LAKES AND CEN LA AROUND MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE NORTH OF THE CWA THEN
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST. THE CAP OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TO SOUTH EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST LATE TODAY OR EARLY
THU. PWAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO RUN AT OR ABOVE 2" AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS AROUND OR HIGHER THAN THE MAX FOR THE DATE.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND STALL BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK NORTH FRIDAY. WAA WILL RETURN MOISTURE BACK NORTH
WHILE MULTIPLE UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND SHARPER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH.
A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION TO MVFR AREA-WIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE FALLING TO IFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP AND BECOME
GUSTY BY MID-MORNING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHIFT N BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT TODAY, WITH AEX HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS LEADING TO STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VIS. ELSEWHERE,
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE NORTH FLOW ANTICIPATED MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE ELEVATED TODAY, HOWEVER A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...17
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