825  
FXUS64 KLCH 161753  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1253 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH  
SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE A LITTLE LATE FRIDAY WITH  
MORE NOTABLE CHANCES DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TRENDING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING  
WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE  
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING  
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND AS THIS OCCURS LIGHT EAST WINDS  
WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE ADVECTING SURFACE MOISTURE INLAND. A  
RIDGE ALOFT IS ALSO SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS AN  
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER UPPER  
DISTURBANCE IS OVER SOUTH TX.  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TX  
WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX AND LA, HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE  
WORKED BACK INTO THE REGION SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH  
OF ANY PRECIP, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
GULF WATERS WITH ONE OR TWO REACHING THE COAST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.  
THE ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE  
IN FULL SWING FRIDAY PUSHING IN GULF MOISTURE. AN ISOLATED  
STREAMER SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SE TX, BUT  
CHANCES ARE AROUND 10-15%.  
 
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DRAW CLOSER BY  
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE REGION.  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER  
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH FORECASTED QPF  
THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 0.25" OR LESS. BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO  
THE NORTH, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS  
GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH END  
EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES BACK IN.  
 
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORNING LOWS  
MONDAY FALLING TO AROUND CLIMATE AVERAGES (MID 50S TO LOW 60S).  
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT EAST MONDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW  
RETURNING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND TEMPS  
INTO MID WEEK, HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT COOLER  
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAKER FRONTS PASS THROUGH  
THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, HOWEVER  
SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIGHT EAST  
WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
TONIGHT INTO FRI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KTS. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES WILL RANGE  
1 - 3 FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE  
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RESUMING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP RAISE RH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY,  
MULTIPLE PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE ACROSS ACADIANA ALONG  
WITH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE  
FURTHER FRIDAY UNDER SOUTH WINDS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE  
ADVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE  
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AEX 61 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 30  
LCH 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 10 50  
LFT 65 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 40  
BPT 70 86 71 87 / 0 10 0 40  
 

 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...05  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page