462
FXUS64 KLCH 280610
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
110 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS
FOR GREATER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- HUMID AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN MODEST TO MIDDLING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH A SEMI BROAD UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING ANOTHER
SCATTERED ROUND OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTION OFFSHORE HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE PER RECENT LCH 28TH/OOZ SOUNDING. PATCHY FOG DURING THE
DAWN HOURS TODAY IS POSSIBLE INLAND, BUT LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME MIXING ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD MITIGATE
THAT.
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR NORTH
OF THE TX / LA COASTLINE THROUGH THE EARLY DAWN HOURS, BUT TRENDS IN
THOSE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER, AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
MIX THE LOW LEVELS DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AREAS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS / STORMS ARE FAVORABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY FROM THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.
LINGERING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SWLA, WHILE SETX APPEARS TO ENTRAIN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. WITH MORE DIRECT SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS KEEPING CHANCES OF RAINFALL VERY ISOLATED
TOWARD THE ATCHAFALAYA INTO SATURDAY WHILE HIGHS TREND WARMER.
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SETX AND SWLA WILL TOP OUT NEAR 90°F.
SIMILARLY, EVENING LOWS, WILL TREND FURTHER INTO THE LOW 70S
FURTHER INLAND.
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SMOOTH OUT, STILL
CONTAINING SOME SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALOFT PER DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUGGESTING BROADER EXTENT OF ISOLATED CHANCES OF STORMS CARRYING
ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO PORTION OF EASTERN TEXAS. A WEEK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SLOWLY DRIFTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FURTHER DECREASES THESE CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. KEY TAKE AWAY HERE IS THAT THE FORECAST IS NOW TRENDING
AWAY FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO A MORE EARLY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN
WHICH IS ON PAR WITH THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE TO
TEMPO INTO MVFR RANGE THROUGH DAWN. THAT SAID, LOWEST 3000FT ABOVE
THE SURFACE REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WHICH FAVORS MORE FEW TO SCT
CLOUDS UNDER. AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN AS WELL TOWARD
SOUTHEAST TX WHERE THE AREA MAY SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT LEADING
TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, THOUGH NOT MUCH. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF REDEVELOPMENT OF TS LARGELY ACROSS THE AREA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO INITIATE TOWARD ACADIANA TERMINALS INTO
CENLA TRENDING THROUGH SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO BE MORE
ISOLATED THROUGH AFTERNOON ALLOWING DECENT PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VARIABLE WINDS GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
AXIS LIFTS INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP THE
GENERAL FLOW SOUTHERLY WITH BACKGROUND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE HELPED DROP THE KBDI DOWN INTO
THE LOW 100S WITH SOME LOCATIONS BELOW 50. FORECAST TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER FOR PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS EASTWARD. OVERALL, PERSISTENT SOUTHERN FLOW WILL KEEP DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 60%. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH WITH 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
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