995
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
BRING COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
- WARMTH AND HUMIDITY QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD,
REINFORCING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTH TX COAST, WHILE ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX. AREA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS AREA-WIDE
OVERCAST SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION, WHICH ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD,
SHUNTING MOST OF THE ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EASTERN -MOST PARTS OF THE CWA, PARTICULARLY LOWER
ACADIANA, WILL LIKELY STILL SEE SOME SHOWERS ACTIVITY TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
UP THE COAST, WITH OTHERWISE DRY, CLOUDY, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
AREA- WIDE. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO MIDWEST,
SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
SHIFT OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT AND ADVECT A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. MORNING LOWS SHOULD REACH INTO
THE 40S FRI AM, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AMID SUNNY SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES
OVERHEAD. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL BE
VERY BRIEF AS WINDS BACK TO THE SE BY FRI EVENING, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO STEADILY RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ENJOY IT
WHILE IT LASTS, AS THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR LAST DAY SUB-70 DEGREES FOR
A WHILE AS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON THE WAY IN THE LONG TERM
AND BEYOND.
17
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM A PROLONGED WARMING TREND WILL HAVE
JUST BEGUN, WITH NO COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT BY EARLY SATURDAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY WEEK UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO
BE RATHER STRONG AND PERSISTENT, WITH NO REPRIEVE UNTIL POSSIBLY
AROUND THE END OF THE YEAR. UNTIL THEN, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANCES
EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALL
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BEFORE THEN, WE COULD SEE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUN/SUN NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE RATHER BRIEF, AND LIKELY OUR LAST
CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BEYOND THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
17
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
NOW THROUGH SUNSET, ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO MVFR, WHILE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LARGELY
WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. TONIGHT, AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS WE NEAR MIDNIGHT, BECOMING RATHER DENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE. IN ADDITION, THE CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD WILL LIKELY
BECOME IFR TO LIFR AREA-WIDE. FOG WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO BURN
OFF TOMORROW MORNING THANKS TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, BUT WE
SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MVFR AT MOST SITES BY ~15Z. IN ADDITION,
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY FOR OUR ACADIANA TERMINALS (LFT/ARA),
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VIS AS
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST TO
WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, THEN TURN QUICKLY OFFSHORE
AND STRENGTHEN LATE THURS/EARLY FRI WHEN A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH WARM MOIST AIR MOVING INLAND ONCE AGAIN TO THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
COOL SHELF WATERS COMBINED WITH WARM MOISTURE RETURN AND MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRING BACK THE OCCURRENCE OF MARINE FOG BY
THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY,
ALLOWING MINRH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HOWEVER,
WINDS TURN SOUTH AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RIGHT BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE 60% THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (POST-FRIDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 53 73 40 61 / 10 40 10 0
LCH 56 74 46 64 / 10 20 10 0
LFT 57 76 46 63 / 20 30 10 0
BPT 56 76 45 64 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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