239
FXUS64 KLCH 162323
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION
-AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY ONGOING AS THE REGION
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY BRING THEM DOWN A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING TOO UNPLEASANT.
SOME BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY OFFERING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS WELL. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ANY CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESO OR SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT,
SOME MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
TRANSITING THE REGION WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LOCALIZED FOCUS FOR
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SUBTROPICAL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST AND REMAINS IN PLACE. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG
THE TROF WILL PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. DESPITE LAST WEEK'S RAINS, MANY
AREAS REMAIN SEVERAL INCHES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR
RAINFALL SO THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN CONTINUING TO
ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
JONES
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREDOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
THREAT OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
ELEVATED AROUND 5-10 KT, EXPECT IT WILL BE MORE OF A LOW CLOUDS
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MORNING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
SE WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AROUND
AEX AND PERHAPS ALSO LFT/ARA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME, BUT FOR NOW HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THESE SITES FOR THIS
TIME FRAME.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE
SEAS TO BETWEEN 2-6 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PARKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WARM, BREEZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LAST WEEK'S RAINS HAVE
IMPROVED KBDI VALUES WHICH PRESENTLY RANGE FROM 155 TO 337 ACROSS
THE REGION.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...64
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