554
FXUS64 KLCH 312343
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
PRIMARILY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF LFT, ARA, LCH AND
BPT THRU 03Z. OTHERWISE, AREA COMING INCREASINGLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO, AND THIS FEATURE
WILL BE ADVANCING INTO TEXAS MONDAY. LOW HAS RAMPED UP PWAT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 2
INCHES. ACCORDINGLY WILL BE MAINTAINING VCSH GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL THEN BUMP UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A PROB30 FOR CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AEX REMAINING DRY. OTHERWISE,
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE BUT ALL OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL VARIETY, THUS VFR CONTINUES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
EASTERLY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 259 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. FOR MONDAY, WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SURFACE SEABREEZE FOCUS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. ACTIVITY AGAIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WHICH ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE
POPS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TROPICAL SYSTEM WORKING INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THROUGH FRIDAY, EUROPEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING DAILY CONVECTION WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LATE
THIS WEEK, PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES WHICH COULD BRING AN EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH
ITS RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE FLOW WITH SEABREEZE
ORGANIZATION ALONG THE COAST LIKELY EACH DAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND, BELIEVE TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
REGARDLESS OF THE STATUS AND EVOLUTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 87 67 90 / 0 10 10 20
LCH 71 87 71 89 / 20 20 20 20
LFT 71 88 72 90 / 10 20 10 40
BPT 72 85 72 88 / 30 30 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION...23
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