190
FXUS64 KLCH 041844
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
144 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT, SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE ALL COMBINE
FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAIN RATES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME.
- EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS,
WILL BE REMAIN ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF CAMERON.
- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
CLUSTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
TX AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TIGHTENS AND IS EXPECTED LIFT NORTH INTO THE LA
GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL FACILITATE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST, WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE EAST INTO FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, HIGHS WILL TREND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MEANDER NORTH, THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR A
DECENT PORTION OF FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID, WITH A
VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE A GOOD WINDOW TO SNEAK IN
A MOWING OR SOME OUTDOOR WORK DEPENDING HOW SATURATED LOCAL
BACKYARDS ARE AFTER TODAY'S RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT PORTION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND SATURDAY ALONG
THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. HOWEVER, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE GIVEN THE RELIABILITY OF THESE MODELS
HAS BEEN SUB-PAR. CURRENT IDEA IS THAT STRONGEST AREA OF CONVERGENCE
MAY SETUP ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
SEE RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST 50% OR HIGHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS TX. MEANWHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS
UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THESE
LOCATIONS BOTH SAT AND SUN.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE TX / LA COAST AND
OFF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRYING
AMONG THE MID-LEVELS, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO 90°F
AREAWIDE. RAIN CHANCES HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TREND LOW TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS /
STORMS WHILE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MVFR TO BORDERING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY SATURATED AIRMASS FROM 04TH/18Z
SOUNDING SHOWS CLOUD BASES EXPECTED NEAR 1500-2500FT AGL. COASTAL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDER OVER THE
AREA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BY EVENING OVER ACADIANA
TERMINALS, WHILE TERMINALS CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST TX KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL HAVE PERIOD GUSTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS OUT OF THE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTHEAST
COMPONENTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
EXTEND WEST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND, A PERSISTENT MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND
KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF RAINFALL HIGH, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT
WILL BRING WETTING RAINS TO A MAJORITY OF THE AREA TO KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER IN CHECK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ452-455-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page