313
FXUS64 KLCH 191123
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AIR TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL KEEP MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN CHECK ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THIS WEEKEND AND VERY LOW
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD
- A WEAK "FRONTAL" BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND BRING IN THE
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. ALBEIT IT ABOVE NORMAL, WE ARE EXPERIENCING MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. FORTUNATELY WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER DAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEFORE MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY BACK IN ON
SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD,
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.
AS WE SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE, WE COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED
POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST. CHANCES OVERALL WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, HOWEVER IT WILL NOT COMPLETELY
SHUT OUT THE CHANCE OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.
MID NEXT WEEK, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT DRIER AIR AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEING A
BIT DRIER, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THEN TO THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPS FINALLY
FALLING.. TO ONLY 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INSTEAD OF 6 TO 13
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT VARIABLE OR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES.
SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
AROUND AEX/LFT/ARA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING (AFTER 20/09Z), BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MID WEEK, WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 30-40% AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, IT WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...64
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