405
FXUS64 KLCH 071137
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS A WARMING TREND
TAKES PLACE TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SUNDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- A WEAK COASTAL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY WILL OFFER SCATTERED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS RESUMING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MOSTLY CALM AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN TEMPORARILY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INITIATE A WARMING TREND. FROM MONDAY INTO THE EARLY
LONG TERM PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY, A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER MID
LEVEL FLOW. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND WARM, MOIST AIR ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER COASTAL
SHELF WATERS MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THAT MORNING.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS MAINLY SHOWERS.
FROM MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE, THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA
AND THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW, GENERALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE
EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW PROBABILITIES FOR FOG AT KBPT
AFTER 08Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS VERY LOW, SO HAVE
LEFT THIS POTENTIAL OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ALL OTHER SITES
WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO AVIATION CONCERNS.
64/SILAS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WINDS WILL BE BRIEFLY OFFSHORE TODAY BEFORE A LONGER DURATION
ONSHORE REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES OF MARINE AND INLAND FOG WILL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE BY MONDAY WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARMER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE SEASONAL MINIMUMS OF THE NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 45% RANGE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. A MORE ESTABLISHED ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT
WILL OFFER GREATER HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS BEGINNING NEXT
WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 39 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 68 45 70 53 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 68 43 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 70 48 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...64
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