561
FXUS64 KLCH 010017
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
717 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
AS OF 7PM CDT THIS EVENING. EDOUARD IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT AND INLAND LATER ON TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES.
- WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS FROM THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR AT THIS TIME.
- A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS AND HIGH MOISTURE KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE FOR DAILY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT
100 MI SOUTHEAST OF VERMILION BAY MOVING WNW AT 6 MPH. AS OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WE COULD SEE TD5 STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW END
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMETIME TOMORROW EVENING
ALONG THE TX COAST.
IN OUR LOCAL AREA, WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING WWA'S:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALL GULF MARINE ZONES ALONG WITH LOWER JEFFERSON CO AND CAMERON PAR.
COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR LOWER JEFFERSON AND WEST CAMERON.
ADVISORY FOR EAST CAMERON AND LOWER VERMILION.
FLOOD WATCH
ALMOST ALL OF OUT SETX COUNTIES WITH EXCEPTION TO NORTHERN JASPER
AND NORTHERN NEWTON.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL STORM, TD5 WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA THEN COASTAL SETX, WITH
MINOR IMPACTS FELT ACROSS OUR INTERIOR SETX COUNTIES AS IT MOVES
INLAND. WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE, WE COULD
SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES ACROSS SETX/SWLA. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS AS WELL AS
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. AT THE MOMENT, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RIVER FLOODING ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WHILE NO MAJOR
STORM SURGE THREAT WILL BE POSED BY THE SYSTEM, WE WILL SEE
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ALONG OUR COASTLINE AS IT NEARS. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THEY ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW THE TS WARNING THRESHOLD. WE WILL SEE WINDS
STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24H, AND IT WILL NOT BE OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THE TS WARNING TO BE EXPANDED, OR
HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND.
AFTER TD5 MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES AND SUMMERY TEMPERATURES. THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ALONG
WITH A WEAKNESS WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED CHANCES OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGE ALOFT CURRENTLY
NORTH OF US WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE
WNW INTO TX. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN, AND
WITH THAT, THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. E-ESE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED INLAND. INCREASING SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AM HOURS THROUGH DAWN FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OF THE 01ST.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WHICH IS MOVING WNW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
GUSTY WINDS FOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GULF MARINE ZONES AS WELL AS SABINE AND
CALCASIEU LAKES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45
KT NEAR THE CENTER AND SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
IMPACTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED NEAR
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RANGING FROM 50 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BETWEEN 60 AND
70 PERCENT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THESE
AREAS WILL ALSO SEE A PROBABILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TODAY INTO TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ073-074-252.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR LAZ073-074.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LAZ252.
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ615.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-261-262-515-
516-615-616.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ430-432-450-452-455-470-472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...05
AVIATION...30
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