275
FXUS64 KLCH 260536
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1236 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING TO 25-35%
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, A PRODUCT OF A TROUGH AXIS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE IT'S EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS A BIT TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY OFFER A BIT OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE
ONGOING WILDFIRE RISK, BUT VERY DRY VEGETATION DUE TO ONGOING
DROUGHT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CATCH FIRE EASILY.
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN LIFTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OUT OF MEXICO AND THROUGH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS TRAVERSING THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS DOES LOOK TO
BRING THE FIRST APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SEEN IN NEARLY
TWO WEEKS, BUT THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIP WILL BE. WHILE ANY RAIN WILL BE
BENEFICIAL, THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO OFFER MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DROUGHT RELIEF WITH EARLY QPF ESTIMATES GENERALLY RUNNING
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME VERY PATCHY,
SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE ONLY AROUND 20%.
ANY FOG THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND SHOULD BE GONE NO LATER THAN 13Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCT TO BKN
CIRRUS THAT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN CONSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
CONSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS TODAY WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS REMAINS
OFFSHORE. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET WITH 3-6 FEET
EXPECTED FROM 20-60 MILES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON RH DROPPING TO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK OFFERING SOME
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN WILDFIRE RISK. HOWEVER, ONGOING EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUING ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ472-475.
PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66
AVIATION...66
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