664  
FNUS71 KALY 191756  
FWSALY  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR APPLE ORCHARD RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
156 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE. PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV, IF  
YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER  
AND WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH  
CLOSE TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER RH VALUES AROUND 80  
PERCENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW  
AS 50 PERCENT BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MIN 39.  
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 76 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............36.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT  
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-2800  
FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD /34900 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MIN...POOR /0  
KNOT-FT/.  
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE  
GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........49 20 21  
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 0  
TEMP............52 45 41  
DEWPOINT........38 38 36  
RH..............51 68 73  
20 FT WIND......SW 3G8 SW 2G7 SW 2G6  
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 BLW100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 6 SW 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100035 0 0  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 54.  
RH..................MIN 50 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
DECREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 TO  
29 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-28200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (106600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........45 46 46 51 56 61 61 62 62 58 54 50  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TEMP............41 43 47 48 50 50 51 51 51 51 52 51  
DEWPOINT........35 36 38 39 39 40 40 39 39 37 35 34  
RH..............73 76 76 74 66 61 57 55 55 55 54 56  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 4 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 11 13 16 17 17 18 18 18 19 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 7 9 15 22 26 28 26 25 26 29 29  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 2 28 59 80 73 58 49 69 95 107  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 36.  
RH..................MAX 85 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............31.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1200 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 15 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTH 3 TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (43500-81500 KNOT-FT)  
DECREASING TO POOR (2600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........45 36 45 53 61 66  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 30 30  
TEMP............49 45 43 40 39 37  
DEWPOINT........32 30 30 29 29 32  
RH..............58 63 65 70 76 82  
20 FT WIND......W 7 W 5 W 3 W 2 W 1 N 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 13 12 10 6 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....3300 800 900 1200 1000 800  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 25 W 15 W 13 W 9 NW 5 N 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100082 11 7 10 4 3  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
BEGIN/END OF PCPN...  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 49.  
RH..................MIN 80 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............36 INCREASING TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.49 INCHES.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........70 79 87  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 60 80  
TEMP............37 41 46  
DEWPOINT........34 38 43  
RH..............85 83 80  
20 FT WIND......E 1G6 SE 2G8 S 5G13  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 700 900  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 5 E 6 SE 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10003 4 9  
 

 
FORECASTER...FRUGIS  
REQUESTED BY...DON TUCKER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2109646.0/ALY  
.DELDT 04/19/21  
.EMAIL NHNECC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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