028
FXUS61 KALY 210550
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS/RH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED POPS AND QPF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AND LOWERING DEW
POINTS AND RH ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ASIDE FROM SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INITIALLY COOL TEMPERATURES
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY MAY LEAD
TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:50 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028 MB SFC
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NY, DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING AS
SEEN ON GOES 16 WV IMAGERY. THIS SFC HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARDS INTO THIS MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S (TERRAIN) TO 20S (VALLEYS). CONTINUED
THE TREND OF GOING COLDER THAN NBM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ALOFT TODAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LARGE- SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL,
WITH 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP BL MIXING TODAY, WE DID LOWER DEW POINTS AND
RH FROM THE NBM, BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, STALLING NEAR OR JUST W/SW OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE WE REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT, WE WILL STILL
SEE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LEADS TO INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR
REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL FGEN ALONG/JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE WARM FRONT WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING, WE FELT NBM POPS AND QPF
WERE TOO LOW, AND ADJUSTED BOTH UP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. QPF NOW LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLY UP 0.1 OR 0.2" WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
CATSKILLS. SOME WET SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET COULD MIX IN OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADKS, CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS,
BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY MINOR. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE TREND THROUGH THE DAY
SHOULD BE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW AND UPPER SUPPORT MOVE
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S REA-WIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. WE WILL BE ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
FAVORING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD AT THE SFC. WE SHOULD MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE KEEP THE
BLOCK IN PLACE WITH ANY PRECIP REMAINING WEST OF OUR REGION, WHILE
OTHER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE HAVE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING
TOWARDS US FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF TO OUR
NORTH OVER CANADA. GIVEN COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IT
WILL LIKELY TAKE A COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IF WE END UP SEEING MORE RAIN/CLOUDS AROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THURSDAY, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WIND GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 MPH, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDS MAY EVEN NEED TO BE
BUMPED UP IF THESE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON DROPPING
TO 30-40%. WHILE FUEL AVAILABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO POTENTIALLY FAVOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
SPREAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NY AND POSSIBLY WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH AT LEVELS LIKELY BELOW CRITICAL/RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED -SHRA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING, SO WILL
MENTION PROB30 STARTING BETWEEN 03Z-05Z. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10
KT BY LATER THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 21:
GLENS FALL, NY: 20 DEGREES SET IN 1925
ALBANY, NY: 20 DEGREES SET IN 1875
POUGHKEEPSIE, NY: 26 DEGREES SET IN 2018
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...31
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