563  
FXUS61 KALY 211502  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1102 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON OR  
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY  
UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY BRINGS A  
MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH  
MAY BE SEVERE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION  
FOR MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 10:30 AM EDT...ONCE THE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED OFF TO  
THE EAST THIS MORNING THE SUN WAS ABLE TO WORK ON THE STRATUS  
WHICH DEVELOPED IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF  
NICELY AND NOW THE AREA IS UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES  
ARE RISING WITH READINGS IN THE 70S WITH AROUND 80 DEGREES IN  
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH HAS  
HAD MORE SUN SO FAR TODAY. THE 12Z ALY SOUNDING HAS 21C AT 925  
HPA AND 19C AT 850 HPA ALONG WITH AN EML WITH A LAPSE RATE OF  
8.7 C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 1036 J/KG. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY  
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [6:43 AM EDT]...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  
IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
AT THE SAME TIME, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AND IS SLOWING DIGGING EASTWARD. WITH THIS SETUP  
IN PLACE, A LARGE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
TROPOSPHERE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC  
STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM AIR  
ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE REACHING AS  
WARM AS +20 C TODAY, WITH 925 HPA AROUND +24 C. THESE TEMPS ARE  
ABOUT +2 TO +3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW  
TO MID LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS AIR  
DOWNSLOPES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ALLOWING FOR A  
VERY HOT DAY TODAY. NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF  
THE REGION, WITH VALLEY TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S BY  
AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR  
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH  
DEWPOINTS MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DEEP  
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S, ALLOWING  
FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT  
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HUDSON VALLEY,  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, AS  
WELL AS VALLEY AREAS WITHIN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AS WELL AS SOME LEFTOVER CLOUDS  
FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO PLENTY OF  
CLOUDS TO START THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. AS THE  
STRONG MAY SUN RISES, THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE DISSIPATING  
AND/OR MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA  
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE  
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY. IT  
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH  
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS  
BY LATE IN THE DAY.  
 
WHILE IT SHOULD STAY DRY FOR MOST SPOTS, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY HOURS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF  
THE CAPITAL REGION. 00Z SPC HREF IS SHOWING ABUNDANT SBCAPE  
TODAY, WITH MEAN VALUES WITHIN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. AN EML  
WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES. THERE SHOULD BE CAP AROUND 800 HPA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,  
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY START TO ERODE BY THE LATE DAY HOURS. THERE  
WON'T BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION TODAY, THOUGH, AS THE  
BEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND A  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL UPSTREAM OVER  
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. HOWEVER, IF SOME CONVECTION COULD GET GOING  
OFF A LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, IT COULD  
BE MAINTAINED THANKS TO THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT  
WILL BE IN PLACE. CAMS SUGGEST THAT SOME ROGUE STORMS COULD  
REACH INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. A LOCALLY  
STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT  
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND SPC HAS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITHIN A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF  
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION FOR  
TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE DECAYING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE  
LOSS OF HEATING. WILL ALLOW POPS OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS TO  
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE  
RAIN-FREE, BUT WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. SKIES WILL  
BE FAIRLY CLEAR IN SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS  
FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER NORTHERN AREAS FOR TONIGHT.  
 
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, IT  
MAY BE A TAD COOLER, AS THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT MAY BE SHIFTING  
EAST OF THE REGION. THE EML WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY AS WELL AND  
THERE MAY BE SOME MORE CLOUDS AROUND, AS THE APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY START TO GET CLOSER TO THE  
AREA. STILL AM EXPECTING VALLEY AREAS TO TOP OUT AROUND 90  
DEGREES OR SO AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO NEEDING  
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN AS WELL.  
 
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE IN THE DAY, THERE SHOULD BE  
A FAIRLY ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING  
HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR  
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY  
ONCE AGAIN. LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AND EVEN  
THOUGH THE EML WILL BE MOVING AWAY, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL  
STILL BE SOMEWHAT STEEP (PERHAPS AROUND 6.5 DEG/KM), SO THERE  
WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING  
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT EVEN SOME HAIL CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT WITHIN THE STRONGEST CORES. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH PWATS OVER 1.50" ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE  
MOVING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FAIRLY LOW.  
 
BEHIND THE STORMS, THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR  
CLEARING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR  
RETURNING TO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO  
UPPER 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A COOL  
NORTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE  
60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. SKIES  
SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MONDAY. COMFORTABLE WEATHER  
WILL FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH  
LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS  
AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY  
EAST ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING INCREASINGLY  
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE EASTERN U.S. ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. THE MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON TUESDAY,  
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL  
BE MAINLY IN THE 70S, WITH SOME 60S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR  
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW  
DEVELOPING. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, AND A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL  
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BECOME WARM AND  
HUMID AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE MIDWEST  
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALONG WITH THE HUMIDITY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 80 THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, BUT AT THIS  
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO  
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THEY WILL BE THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LOW CLOUDS WILL  
RESULT IN IFR CIGS THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS  
WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN  
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH BASES ABOVE  
5000 FEET. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE  
THAT ONE OF THESE STORMS COULD DRIFT ACROSS ONE OF THE TAF SITES  
THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS, HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THAT IS LOW  
ENOUGH SO THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN ANY OF THE TAFS  
AT THIS TIME. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY  
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KTS TODAY, DIMINISHING  
TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.  
AFTER RH VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT THIS MORNING, RH VALUES WILL  
LOW TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY  
ALL DAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL  
REGION WILL SEE A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL  
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TONIGHT.  
 
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON RH  
VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ALL AREAS WILL  
PROBABLY SEE A WETTING RAINFALL LATE IN THE DAY AS A LINE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH HIGHER  
GUSTS FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY TODAY (OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY), A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE  
CONVECTION TRACKS, BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER A HALF INCH ARE  
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST LARGER RIVERS AND STREAMS WON'T SEE ANY  
IMPACTS FROM THIS RAINFALL, SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD SEE  
A QUICK RISE DURING THE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. PONDING OF WATER IN  
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIEST  
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR  
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL  
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY, MAY 21:  
 
ALBANY: 92 DEGREES (1941)  
GLENS FALLS: 93 DEGREES (1921)  
POUGHKEEPSIE: 95 DEGREES (1941, 1996)  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.  
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ041-043-049-  
050-052-053-059>061-063>066-083-084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS  
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS  
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS  
LONG TERM...MSE  
AVIATION...MSE  
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS  
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS  
CLIMATE...  
 
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