220
FXUS61 KALY 181054
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS ISSUED AN UPGRADE TO AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM AROUND
THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. MULTIPLE
ROUND OF DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN SOME CAPACITY TODAY, WITH POOR AIR
QUALITY AND HAZE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ACTIVE DAY SHAPING UP IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE DAY IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS. INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE T-STORMS, LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSAGE. THEN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, STRONGLY FORCED CLUSTERS/LINES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE. THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE WHEN THE GREATEST THREATS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
FLASH FLOODING. HREF/REFS CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATER INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE LOWERING TO < 1000 J/KG FARTHER EAST.
WHILE THE GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS (WHERE SPC HAS UPGRADED TO AN ENHANCED RISK), THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND 35-45 KT 0-6 KM LAYER WIND SHEAR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CELLS/LINES TO PROGRESS SOUTH/EAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONE POTENTIAL WILDCARD IS HOW SMOKE
MOVING BACK IN WILL AFFECT DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR,
ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WIND FIELD, THE
SMOKE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A FACTOR. MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH A FAIRLY RARE 45-59% AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. HOWEVER, A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG WITH QLCS FEATURES
DUE TO 0-1 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND
FAIRLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS < 1 KM. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
5-9% TORNADO RISK TO INCLUDE MOST OF EASTERN NY. WHILE NOT A
PRIMARY THREAT, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY
SUPERCELLS.
THE OTHER THREAT IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT PASSAGE, PWAT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO +1 TO +3
STDEV WITH THE GREATEST VALUES SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE
WPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4), WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FROM AROUND ALBANY NORTH. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS WILL BE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. MITIGATING FACTORS ARE
EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE
THREAT WOULD BE GREATER IF NOT FOR THESE FACTORS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE EVENING, AS THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. AFTER A BREAK ON MON, ANOTHER CYCLONE AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/WEST LOOK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE INTO WED. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ALSO
MULTIPLE SURFACE WAVES/FRONT. AREAS WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. PWAT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NAEFS. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR,
ALTHOUGH WITH EXPECTED FAST STORM MOTIONS, ANY FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. OTHER THAN A
BRIEF -SHRA AT KGFL, IT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY THROUGH 16Z.
NUMEROUS SHRA WILL THEN DEVELOP BY AROUND 16Z-17Z AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS LIKELY START TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS DUE TO THE RETURN OF SMOKE/HAZE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AROUND MID
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHRA WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA WILL THEN MOVE IN. THE TSRA SHOULD TRACK FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 21Z TO 02Z. THERE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION TEMPOS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE TSRA, WITH STRONG WINDS
AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page