401  
FXUS61 KALY 181954  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
354 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER, PROVIDING  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL  
LEVELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AS  
THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR  
SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.  
 
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK DUE TO OPTIMAL  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S  
AND LOW 40S. THERE IS A FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM FOR  
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION, SOUTHERN  
VT AND BERKSHIRES WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO  
MID 30S. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY  
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE PRIOR  
TO DAYBREAK.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 AND MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS TC HUMBERTO PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE  
ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE  
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES  
A SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER, IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH BOTH DAYS WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR ALBANY THIS  
TIME OF YEAR IS 72 DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN  
MILDER AND MAY NOT EVEN DIP BELOW 50 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE A  
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BOTH DAYS BUT THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION STILL UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST, HOWEVER THE  
500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY.  
SO IT WILL STILL BE DRY AND MILD SATURDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY THROUGH  
SUNDAY AS WELL BASED THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE  
COAST, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM S-SW FLOW TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH  
AN ALREADY ANOMALOUSLY WARM (+1 TO +2 STDEV AT 850 MB) AIR MASS IN  
PLACE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT,  
POSSIBLE BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES.  
 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE  
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
HOWEVER, THERE ARE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMONG THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS INDICATING A STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH, WHICH  
TAKES THROUGH TUESDAY TO PASS THROUGH. THE GFS IS DEPICTING A MORE  
DE-AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. SO THERE IS A LOW  
CONFIDENCE IN PROBABILITY OF RAIN FORECAST IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD  
DURING THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS RAIN  
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY WITH A FAST-MOVING WAVE APPROACHING, HOWEVER  
THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
GRADUALLY COOL BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUE/WED ONCE  
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SKIES ARE SCT FOR THE VALLEY SITES OF KGFL, KALB AND KPOU AND  
BKN AT KPSF, THANKS TO SOME FLAT CU ON THE BACKSIDE OF A  
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO  
DEPART, THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING  
FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 TO  
10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT SHOULD START TO BECOME  
VERY LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING/MIXING.  
 
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL  
FOG TO FORM AT KGFL BY MIDNIGHT, WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME FOG COULD FORM AT KPSF AS  
WELL, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. NOT TOO  
CONFIDENT ON IF ANY FOG WILL FORM AT KALB/KPOU DUE TO SUCH A DRY  
AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AND IF IT DOES  
OCCUR, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN A SHORT WINDOW RIGHT AROUND  
SUNRISE.  
 
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY, ANY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DISSIPATE,  
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.  
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THURSDAY AT ALL SITES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: PATCHY FG POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY  
MORNING, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER, PROVIDING  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL  
LEVELS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AS  
THE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  
 
RH WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW  
FORMATION AND SOME AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. RH WILL FALL TO  
30-50 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LOWEST WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH TO POUGHKEEPSIE AND ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 MPH SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALBANY HYDRO SERVICE AREA  
/HSA/ THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  
 
THERE ARE SOME ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS IN THE ALY HSA BASED ON THE  
MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR, AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF  
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MAY BE WITH A COLD  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING ON MONDAY.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-  
041>043-054-083-084.  
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.  
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JLV  
NEAR TERM...JLV  
SHORT TERM...JLV  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...FRUGIS  
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JLV  
HYDROLOGY...KL/JLV  
 
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