082  
FXUS61 KALY 060154  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
854 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE GULF OF  
MAINE TONIGHT, WITH RAIN AND SNOW ENDING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK  
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE BRISK AND  
SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE  
MAINLY DRY DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 850 PM EST...RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN GREENS WHICH WILL SLOWLY END BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE,  
PER NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS GOES-16 CHANNEL, CLEARING WAS  
OCCURRING A BIT FASTER FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AND  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF  
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. WIND MAGNITUDES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AS  
FORECAST. SO MAIN UPDATE WAS TO THE SKY GRIDS, MODIFICATION OF  
THE POP/WX GRIDS PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND SLIGHT  
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE TEMPS/DEWPTS PER OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.  
 
PREV DISC...  
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING, AS  
THE COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES, RESULTING IN A STRONGER PRESSURE  
GRADIENT. SO NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND  
40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY LINGERING SNOW EXITS SOUTHERN  
VERMONT BY LATER THIS EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT. JUST A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE  
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE COLDER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM  
THE UPPER 10S TO UPPER 20S, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE  
IT FEEL COLDER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, OUR  
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. DRY AIR MASS WILL  
RESULT IN NO PRECIP. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WITH PERSISTENT  
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR  
EARLY DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S (MOUNTAINS) TO MID/UPPER  
30S (VALLEYS). THE GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FELL COLDER THOUGH.  
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST  
FLOW. WHILE STILL SOMEWHAT BREEZY, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DUE TO  
A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO  
NORMAL, IN THE MID 10S TO LOWER 20S.  
 
TRANQUIL/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD  
PRECLUDE ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A  
FEW POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH. WILL MENTION DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR NOW DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
OVERALL, RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK  
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  
 
TUESDAY, RESIDUAL UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE PER THE GGEM/ECMWF/GFS-  
PARALLEL RUN SUGGESTS PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO WITH THE DEPARTING  
SYSTEM EARLY ON IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, APPEARS AT THIS TIME TOO  
LOW TO MENTION SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DRY  
WITH GRADUAL SKY IMPROVEMENTS FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL LIKELY  
REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT AS  
H850 TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW -5C.  
 
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, POTENT UPPER JET ACROSS LOWER CANADA  
AND DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WILL USHER IN A REGION OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME AID FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES COULD BRING SOME INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT  
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. THE KEY HERE IS LIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND  
ALOFT APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW (QPF LESS THAN ONE  
TENTH OF AN INCH). HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY INTO THE 30S WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID-UPR 20S.  
 
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE AXIS  
BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR  
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE, UNLESS FOG/STRATUS LINGERS WITH  
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST, AS HIGHS SHOULD  
BE ABLE TO CLIMB AT OR A ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER HALF OF THE  
40S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.  
 
FRIDAY, THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST  
CORRIDOR AS WE EXPECT A TRANQUIL AND RATHER MILD END TO THE  
WORK/SCHOOL WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE A RUN AT 50F FOR VALLEY  
LOCATIONS WITH GENERALLY 40S ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THIS EVENING WITH  
MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING FOR KPSF. OTHERWISE, SOME LINGERING  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR KPSF WHICH THIS TOO SHOULD DIMINISH THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE  
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS  
OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 20KTS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.  
 
WIND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY AT  
12-22 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A GRADUAL WIND DIRECTION SHIFT TO  
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH GRADUAL  
MAGNITUDE DECREASE INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.  
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
RAIN AND SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING, AS A NOR'EASTER TRACKS  
AWAY FROM THE REGION. TOTAL QPF FROM THE ONGOING COASTAL STORM  
WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH AND WEST OF  
ALBANY, TO AS MUCH AS A HALF TO ONE INCH FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH  
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RIVER RISES WHERE  
PRIMARILY RAINFALL OCCURRED, ALONG THE STILL RIVER AT BROOKFIELD  
AND THE HOUSATONIC RIVER AT STEVENSON DAM, WHERE ACTION STAGE  
HAS BEEN REACHED. HOWEVER, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.  
 
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO  
SLOWLY RECEDE.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPV  
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV  
SHORT TERM...JPV  
LONG TERM...BGM  
AVIATION...BGM/RATHBUN  
HYDROLOGY...JPV  
 
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