752
FXUS61 KALY 111040
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A ~600 DM UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE REACHING +20 TO +22C BY TUESDAY (+2 TO +3
STDEV). THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S IN THE
VALLEYS BY TUESDAY WITH 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S SO THIS PERIOD
OF HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT
THE BEGINNING OF JULY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BREEZE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS MORE AT BAY.
STILL, HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS- LIKE TEMPERATURES) SHOULD REACH
AT LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS WHERE SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THIS HEAT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK LOOKS TO BE
IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORIES (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THIS HEAT AFFECTING ANYTHING WHO IS
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE
OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE SO OVERALL COVERAGE COULD BE RATHER
SPARSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/SUN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL COVERAGE
LOOKS RATHER SPARSE SO LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER OR NOT FOG FORMS AT ANY SITE TONIGHT.
WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY 4-8 KT BEFORE
TRENDING LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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