939
FXUS61 KALY 251958
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR TO SLIGHTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH-
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, WITH DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3:55 PM EDT...OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT, WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ARE SEEING MORE
CLEARING. THIS HAD LEAD TO A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE ADKS ARE STUCK IN THE
LOW 30S. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY SHOWERS AND
HIGH-TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS AROUND, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN
THE WESTERN ADKS WHERE THERE THERE IS SOME ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS WELL AS FROM LAKE AND W/NW
UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO UPSTATE NY, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL HELP TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN OVER OUR
REGION, LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S
THANKS TO THE COLD AIRMASS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. TONIGHT,
THESE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS IN THE
WESTERN ADKS, BUT MORE NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER TROUGH COMES
OVERHEAD AND THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MINOR,
AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH 40S FOR THE VALLEYS AND
30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. IT ALSO BECOMES BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WELL OF THE EAST COAST, AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST,
WHILE HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT MOST OF THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, MAINLY IN THE 10S
TO 20S. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW HOW CHILLY IT
WILL GET WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS ALOFT. THERE SHOULD BE MORE
CLEARING ON THURSDAY AND BUFKIT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE LOW SIDE AND IT REMAINS BREEZY, SO THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS. THURSDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACK NEAR/NORTH OF THE REGION, GIVING US A
"GLANCING BLOW." THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT MOST OF THE NIGHT
REMAINS DRY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S. ON FRIDAY, THIS COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION, OR EVEN LIFTS NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT.
WHERE THIS FRONT ULTIMATELY SETS UP WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW
WARM FRIDAY GETS, AND THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT SETS UP
ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE FRIDAY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH ANOTHER
NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION, THE POSITION
OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW...
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED OVERALL, THOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH SATURDAY & MONDAY HIGHS.
DISCUSSION:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GETTING GOING TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OF A WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT WITH THE FRONT, WITH LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES ADVERTISING POPS
AROUND 60-90% FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES SURROUNDING PRECIP TYPES
THROUGH THE EVENT DURATION, AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT OF
THE EXACT POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL, RAIN IS FAVORED FOR MAJORITY OF THE EVENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL FAVOR NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL NOTE
NBM PROBS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW & ICE HAVE TRENDED LOWER IN RECENT
RUNS, WITH LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS > 1" AND LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF ICE AMOUNTS > 0.01", ALL OF WHICH IS
FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADKS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN TOW, WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AT THIS POINT, FAVORING MAINLY RAIN FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE
OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE AN INTERESTING STORY FOR THE LONG TERM. SATURDAY PM
HIGHS WILL HAVE HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT CAN GET AND HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE SEE, AND THERE COULD BE
A SHARP NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT AS A RESULT. LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GFS/EC/CMC ACTUALLY HAVE HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY, BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH
VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THIS
PERIOD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BEYOND THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY, WHICH COULD SEE
ANOTHER WARMUP DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IMMERSED WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
18Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET AND INTO TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP AT KGFL BETWEEN 05-08Z DUE TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL RH
AND LIGHT WINDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURRENCE JUST
YET. THEREFORE, JUST INPUT A TEMPO FOR MVFR VISIBILITY DURING THIS
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
FIRE WEATHER
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 20-30% RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, WITH SOME 15-20 MPH WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO NECESSITATE AN
SPS, ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THIS AREA YESTERDAY. RH
VALUES REGION-WIDE RECOVER TO AT LEAST 80%. TOMORROW, RH VALUES
OF 35-45% ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 20 MPH AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK
VALLEY, WITH LOWER GUSTS ELSEWHERE. GIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW AND LACK OF MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER WIND GUSTS,
WE DETERMINED PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THAT
SPS ISSUANCE WAS NOT NEEDED FOR TOMORROW EITHER.
THURSDAY COULD FEATURE MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 20-30% AND WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. FRIDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE RH VALUES IN MANY
AREAS AT OR BELOW 30%, BUT WINDS LOOK LIGHTER ON FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAIN
NEAR TERM...MAIN
SHORT TERM...MAIN
LONG TERM...SPECK
AVIATION...GANT
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN
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