555
FXUS61 KALY 131836
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
236 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS,
HELDERBERGS, CAPITAL DISTRICT, EASTERN CATSKILLS, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH, AND
BEHIND THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
2) STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RENEWED MINOR RIVER FLOODING MAY
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW CT.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN SNOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE INITIAL SNOW SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED FROM AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. SNOW COULD
INITIALLY MIX WITH RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT DURING PERIODS
OF STEADY PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW DUE TO WETBULB EFFECT.
DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S, MOST ACCUMULATION
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
UNTREATED PAVEMENT. HOWEVER, SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ALOFT, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL GREATLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE S. ADIRONDACKS, DOWNSLOPING WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LIMITING SNOWFALL.
AFTER THE INITIAL PERIOD OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST ALONG THE SYSTEM'S TRIPLE POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED SQUALLS EVEN IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD BE AFTER THE COMMUTE
TIME. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS THE
PRIMARY CYCLONE TRACKS EAST ACROSS N. NY/NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE STEADIER SNOW SHIFTING TO WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS
OF THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS, WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
ACROSS THE W. ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS THROUGH EARLY SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES. SO EXPECTING
5-12" SNOW IN N. HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES, WHERE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH 3-7" IN N. FULTON, N.
WARREN COUNTIES AND THE S. GREENS OF VT ABOVE 1500 FT.
ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND TRACE-3".
THE OTHER MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER ARE
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, FIRST WITH S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH IN FAVORED SPOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THEN, STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE W-NW. COLD ADVECTION AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
MIXING. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAVORED AREAS IN
W-NW FLOW. LATEST 24-HR NBM PROBS ENDING 2 AM SUN FOR WIND
GUSTS > 45 MPH ARE 50-90% ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, N. TACONICS, BERKSHIRES AND E. CATSKILLS. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
SAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE PARENT CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO ~980 MB AS
IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
WITH SUCH A DEEP CYCLONE AND AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN, SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
NAEFS SHOWING V-COMPONENT WIND ANOMALIES OF +3 TO +5 STDEV. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF 45+ MPH WINDS IN FAVORED AREAS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE NEXT HAZARD TO MENTION IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE THERE ME OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE MAIN THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WOULD
BE JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. PWAT ANOMALIES HAVE
INCREASED TO +3 TO +5 STDEV ALONG WITH IVT ANOMALIES OF +4 TO +8
STDEV, WHICH IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO FOCUS AN AREA OF DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIALLY A NARROW
COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND IN THE LATE MON AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME
FRAME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR RENEWED RIVER FLOODING IN NW CT
AND ALSO URBAN/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THERE WILL BE RUNOFF
FROM SNOWMELT FROM MOUNTAIN AREAS IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
LASTLY, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL SEVERE T-STORM THREAT DUE TO
SUCH STRONG KINEMATICS, FORCING, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INSTABILITY. EVEN SMALL
MAGNITUDE OF CAPE COULD RESULT IN A FOCUSED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE IN THIS TYPE
OF SETUP (LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR). CURRENT NBM PROBS FOR SBCAPE >
200 J/KG IS 30-60% AND FOR > 300 J/KG IS 20-40%. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT MON NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS TUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAVORED
SPOTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS TUE,
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 STDEV TUE THROUGH WED.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 20S TO AROUND 40F
EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 10S TUE NIGHT
AND 10S TO 20S WED NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION, FORCING THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOWERING OF
CEILINGS AHEAD OF A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM. PERIODS OF SNOW,
RAIN, AND A MIX THEREOF ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS CLIPPER WITH MOST
OF THE CONSISTENT SNOW CONFINED TO GFL AND PSF. POU SHOULD NOT
SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPERATURES
MAINTAINING RAIN BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND KALB COULD HAVE A MIX LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT.
WITHIN THE MOST CONSISTENT PERIODS OF SNOW AT GFL AND PSF, IFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MET PRIMARILY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY BUT POSSIBLY ALSO BY LOWERED CEILING HEIGHTS. ALB
COULD ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY WITHIN ITS POTENTIAL PERIOD OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, BUT
THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. OUTSIDE OF THIS POTENTIAL, ALB AND POU
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORIES THROUGHOUT THE
18Z CYCLE. ONCE SNOW CEASES AT GFL AND PSF EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED RATHER
QUICKLY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING ABOUT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT. THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT, WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND EVEN PICK UP SOME, STILL OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. DEFINITE RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
047>054-058-063.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ042-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...12
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