070  
FXUS61 KALY 240235  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
1035 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT  
WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. MAINLY DRY  
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE  
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN  
OVERNIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA WITH THE WINDS  
DIMINISHING QUICKLY SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE  
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR SOME RADIATIONAL  
COOLING. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 40S  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS  
IN THE NYS MESONET. SOME CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE NORTHERN  
MOST ZONES BASED ON THE 10.3-3.9 MICRON NIGHT FOG SCAN. ALSO  
PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG IS FORMING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.  
 
WE RETOOLED THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS  
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING SOUTH AND  
EAST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. SOME CLOUDS MAY  
DRIFT IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO BETWEEN 09Z-12Z LIKE THIS MORNING.  
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH  
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LOWERED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT  
BASED ON THE COOLING SO FAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND  
50F. A FEW LOWER 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW RIVER  
VALLEYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY, A  
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH  
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE DAY WILL FEATURE  
MAINLY MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LESS WIND. HIGHS WILL  
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE MID- TO UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS WITH  
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS  
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE REMAINS OF BETA PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND  
EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM BETA MAY BRING A FEW  
SHOWERS TO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT ON  
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE  
TO BRING WARMER AIR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR  
REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S, WITH SOME  
UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S  
IN THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN  
THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
TO START, ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN  
PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE  
LOW 80S FOR THE VALLEYS, WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.  
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
IN PLACE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BACKED OFF COMPLETELY ON ANY  
PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO HAVE TRENDED DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
FOR NOW.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEYS AND TRANSLATES EAST, SENDING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE REGION. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT MAY ARRIVE BY  
MONDAY MORNING AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS  
LIKE OUR FIRST DECENT RAINFALL IN OVER TWO WEEKS.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE LARGE  
SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH DAY AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL  
THROUGH MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO  
NORMAL LEVELS, WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID 40S  
TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT COOLER, IN THE MID 50S  
TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH  
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW  
WITH AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH  
DIMINISHING WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS  
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG TO FORM AT THE  
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SITES OF KGFL/KPSF. WE PLACED SOME  
IFR/LIFR RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG INITIALLY AT KGFL BETWEEN 04Z-  
07Z/THU WITH A TEMPO GROUP, THEN KEPT THE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS  
FROM 07Z- 12Z/THU. KPSF WE WERE A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, AND WE STARTED SOME MVFR MIST AROUND  
06Z/THU, BUT THEN LOWERED TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS BETWEEN 08Z-  
12Z/THU. A TEMPO GROUP WITH NEXT TAF ISSUANCE MAY HANDLE THE  
MIST/FOG POTENTIAL WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE AT KALB/KPOU,  
WE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. KALB MAY HAVE SOME SHALLOW GROUND  
MIST/FOG, AND WE KEPT THE VSBYS 6SM OVERNIGHT.  
 
ANY MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY, AND VFR CONDITONS SHOULD  
PERSIST FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN  
CIRRUS.  
 
WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KTS OR LESS TO CALM SHORTLY BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 4-7 KTS IN  
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE  
THEY MAYBE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK  
AND INTO THE START OF THIS WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REBOUND TO 85 TO  
100 PERCENT AT NIGHT AND LOWER TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND WILL LESSEN TO 5 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT AND ONLY  
BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK  
AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO  
HOLD STEADY OR LOWER WITH STREAMFLOWS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN/WASULA  
NEAR TERM...WASULA  
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN  
LONG TERM...JLV  
AVIATION...WASULA  
FIRE WEATHER...RATHBUN  
HYDROLOGY...RATHBUN  
 
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