418
FXUS61 KALY 251058
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90
TODAY, WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO THE SOUTH, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BLUSTERY AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (15 - 30% CHANCE) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (15% CHANCE) FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90,
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
- THERE IS A 70 TO 90% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEED 75
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.
DISCUSSION:
UPDATE
AS OF 625 AM EDT, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES, AND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING FOR AREAS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH
OF I-90, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOWER POTENTIAL SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO, ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT BASED ON LATEST
NYS MESONET/NEW ENGLAND 511 WEBCAMS.
[PREVIOUS]...AS OF 4 AM EDT, BAND OF PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF I-90,
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD TREND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SURFACE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEAR, OR EVEN SINK SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING CLOSE
TO OR JUST NORTH OF I-90, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. TO THE NORTH, TEMPS MAY REMAIN COOLER,
GENERALLY REACHING 65-70, WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT OF MAX
TEMPS RIGHT NEAR I-90. HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER NBM NUMBERS IN
THIS GENERAL AREA, WITH HIGHS IN ALBANY IN THE UPPER 70S,
ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD.
TOWARD SUNSET, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND INTO
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH 24-HOUR PROBS OF RAINFALL >0.50" ENDING 2 AM
SUNDAY 70-90%+.
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (20-40%) FOR ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY, WITH 24-HOUR
PROBS >1" SNOWFALL ENDING 2 PM SUNDAY 10-30% FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1800 FEET.
- GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH+ POSSIBLE (30-60%+) SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, BECOMING A
WIDESPREAD STEADY MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY
SINCE LAST NIGHT, WITH 01Z/25 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS OF RAINFALL
>0.50" ENDING 2 AM SUNDAY 70-90%+, AND SIMILAR HREF PROBS FOR
RAINFALL >0.75" 50-90% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME DEVELOPING GREEN-UP/UPTAKE FROM VEGETATION IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS, THIS WILL BE A GOOD, BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, AS
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SLOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALLOWS GREATER INSTABILITY TO BUILD FOR AREAS WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z/25 HREF
PROBS FOR SBCAPE >1000 J/KG INCREASE TO 30-60% ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY REGION, WITH MEAN SB CAPES OF 300-700 J/KG AMID
35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF
ALBANY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS, AS SOME CAMS DO SUGGEST
A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA, AND WITH STRONG
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE, STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO LEADS TO WARMER MAX TEMPS REACHING
65-70 IN FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE
EAST, WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AND SOME
SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN
VT. 01Z/25 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ENDING 2 PM
SUNDAY ARE 10-30% FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FEET IN THESE AREAS.
IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY SUNDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
LIKELY. 01Z/25 NBM INDICATES 24-HOUR MAX WIND GUST PROBS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH OF AT LEAST 30-60% WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES, GREATEST AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ABOVE 75 DEGREES LIKELY (80% CHANCE).
- LATEST FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
(15-25% CHANCE) TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE NORTH AND
WEST OF I-90.
DISCUSSION:
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S. TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
A FEW (15-25% CHANCE) THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY AT THIS FORECAST TIME.
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, PROBABILITIES FROM
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.2 DATA HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY REACHING ABOVE 75 DEGREES BEING GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING LOW CHANCES (15-30 PERCENT) OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 26/00Z. THERE ARE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF KALB AND WEST OF KPSF THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO THREE HOURS, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER 26/00Z, INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS RETURN
BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WINDS TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CALM AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WEBB
AVIATION...WEBB
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