485
FXUS61 KALY 292328
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY INTO
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT GETS
UNDERWAY STARTING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONG WINDS INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.
2. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO ATLANTIC
CANADA WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THUS FAR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES. AS A RESULT,
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WINDS MAY ONLY GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, ANY
LINGERING ICE ACCRETION ON TREES WILL BE MORE PRONE TO SNAPPING
AND BREAKING, SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO INCLUDED FOR THESE
AREAS. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 58 MPH OR
GREATER WERE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AND RATHER LOCALIZED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, SO WE HELD OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE EVENT AN UPGRADE IS NEEDED LATER. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD, WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN A MULTI-DAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST
CAMS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE THRUWAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THIS BAND, NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES (COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS FROM KEY
MESSAGE 1 ABOVE) WITH SNOWFALL RATES REACHING 0.50 TO 1 INCHES
PER HOUR. A MULTI- LAKE CONNECTION WITH GEORGIAN BAY WILL ALLOW
FOR THIS BAND TO EXTEND WELL INLAND, REACHING PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND BERKSHIRES AT TIMES
WHERE SOME COATINGS TO A COUPLE OF INCHES CAN ACCUMULATE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING 2
TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS INTO MIDWEEK.
WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS SET UP, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY,
WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS HAMILTON, FULTON, MONTGOMERY AND SCHOHARIE
COUNTIES HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE FLOW WILL BACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SOME WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO ORIENT BACK ACROSS N HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES WHERE THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXTEND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER, WESTERLY
FLOW RESUMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS
STRONG AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK, ANY BANDS DURING THE LATE WEEK
WILL LIKELY NOT EXTEND AS FAR INLAND, ONLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO ARES WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS OF 6:25 PM EST. SNOW SHOWERS AT ALB SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD /00Z. SO, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT PSF TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR ALB/PSF LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THESE
BANDS MAY MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS, SO HAVE KEPT A FAIRLY WIDE
WINDOW USING PROB 30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. WITHIN
THE NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS, IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, STRONG 15-20KT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE W/SW VEERING
TO THE W LATER TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45 KT LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALB/PSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-
058>061-063>066-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ033-042-043-083-
084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-
040-047-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...35
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