718
FXUS61 KALY 271038
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
538 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS ON
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THIS TRANSITION TO COLDER
WEATHER.
2) MONITORING A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BRIEF WARMUP STILL EXPECTED ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SE CANADA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS OUR AREA
FROM NW TO SE SAT P.M. A SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS AND S. GREENS WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY START TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT. EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, DEEPER MIXING
IN IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 45-50F
TEMPERATURES FROM MAINLY THE HUDSON VALLEY AND I-90 CORRIDOR
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF SAT AFTERNOON. THE LAST 40F TEMPERATURE AT
ALB WAS ON JAN 22, SO IT'S BEEN OVER A MONTH SINCE IT'S BEEN
THIS WARM.
THE WARMUP WILL BE BRIEF, AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEGINS TO
FILTER IN SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. RAISED POPS TO MENTION LIKELY FROM AROUND I-90 SOUTH
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. QPF HAS INCREASED TO 0.05-0.15",
WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 1-2" OF SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD END SUN
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 10S IN THE W. ADIRONDACKS TO MID 30S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FILTER IN SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 1040 MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV DURING
THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH TO BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SUN NIGHT. WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LOWER DUE TO WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE SUN NIGHT. HIGHS MON
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 10S AND 20S, WITH LOWS MON NIGHT
SINGLE DIGITS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST AND A
POTENTIAL WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH/WEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND QPF, BUT OVERALL CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW HAVE INCREASED WITH 24-HR NBM PROBS ENDING 7 AM
WED OF 40-50% FOR > 1" OF SNOW. SNOW COULD EVEN BECOME A WINTRY
MIX BEFORE ENDING WED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE WARMING ALOFT.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP AND/OR RAIN MAY OCCUR
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
AND A FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL
FOR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE POTENTIAL SURFACE WAVE
TRACKS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP DUE TO SHALLOW
COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK IN
PLACE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS INITIALLY WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BY MID-MORNING, SUBSIDING TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST BY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT ANY IMPACTS
SHOULD HOLD UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...17
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