939
FXUS61 KALY 310611
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
211 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, LABOR DAY. A PIECE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR REGION ON SATURDAY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CLOSE OFF. IN ADDITION, AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S TODAY AND 70S TO AROUND 80 ON MONDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S TO MID
50S.
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND OVERHEAD
WHICH COULD INCREASE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLE WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BRINGING ANOTHER DRY AND
SEASONABLE DAY TO THE AREA.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL AS THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
OVER 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE
MID-60S TO MID-70S ON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER TO MID-70S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KGFL AND KPSF WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 11Z/SUN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AT 4-8 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
DISCUSSION...RATHBUN
AVIATION...KL
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