054
FXUS61 KALY 051012
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY,
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
2) THE NEXT THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SIT AND SPIN OVER ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
DURING DAYTIME HEATING TODAY, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED, CAMS SUGGEST THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY
FORM OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION, HELDERBERGS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN
ADDITION, SOME SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF VERMONT
AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ANY PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY BRIEF. MODELS AREN'T
SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY AT ALL TODAY, AS AN INVERSION AROUND
700 HPA WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS FROM GETTING TOO TALL. CAMS SHOW
JUST 100-300 J/KG OF SBCAPE, SO MOST AREAS WON'T SEE ANY
THUNDER, ALTHOUGH A STRAY RUMBLE CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
BASED ON THIS, THERE WON'T BE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
THE RAINFALL WILL BE TOO LIGHT AND BRIEF TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY AND IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY SIMILAR, A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING
BEING OFF TO THE EAST WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP FAIRLY ISOLATED. IT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. THERE LOOKS TO BE MORE
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
BY MONDAY (LABOR DAY), THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SHIFTING FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE AREA COMPLETELY DRY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE NEARLY FULLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MONDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO SUNDAY, IT
WILL STILL BE PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED OFF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE,
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. MODELS AREN'T SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY
AT THIS TIME, SO EVEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER LOOKS FAIRLY
LIMITED AT THE MOMENT. NBM HAS FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SEEMS VARIED ON THE BEST TIMING OF
THE BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME, SO THESE POPS MAY ADJUST SOMEWHAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AL/ML GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ONLY VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS AT THIS POINT, WHICH MAKES SENSE
WITH THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY, WHICH IS TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NBM ONLY SHOWS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 1" OR
MORE OF RAINFALL, SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
AVOID ANY HYDRO CONCERNS AS WELL. OVERALL, THE PATTERN LOOKS
VERY TYPICAL FOR EARLY TO MID SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE SOME BRIEF PATCHY MIST DEVELOPED AT GFL
EARLIER TONIGHT, ALL SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS AS OF
6:10 AM EDT. SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALB/GFL/PSF, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE (BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT PSF), BUT VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. LOWER CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO
TONIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP, WHILE OTHER SOURCE OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST MORE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITHE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND REMAIN AT 4-8 KT TONIGHT FROM THE
N/NE AT ALB/GFL AND AROUND 5 KT FROM THE E/NE AT POU/PSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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