499
FXUS61 KALY 011743
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE: AS OF 5:25 AM EDT, CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS OUR
REGION. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DISCUSSION FOR KEY MESSAGE 2 HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
FOR TODAY, SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH THE MARGINAL RISK CLIPS THE SOUTHERN ADKS.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH NO CHANGES TO EXISTING HEADLINES OR OUR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN HEATRISK IMPACTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME CATEGORIES.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 3:40 AM EDT, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OUR AREA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
CONVECTION TO LOCALLY IN THE MID 70S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION,
BUT ARE STILL UNCOMFORTABLE MUGGY DEW POINTS. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN
PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IT COULD BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN SOME SPOTS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY OR EARLIER
TONIGHT.
A 596 DAM CLOSED UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 TEMPS CLIMB TO +22C (TODAY)
TO +24C (THU), WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TODAY,
WITH SOME LOW 100S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TOMORROW. THE HEAT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BOTH DAYS. WE
KNOCKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM, WHICH
CONTINUES TO BE UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH BOTH. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL
SEE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OVER 100 TODAY AND TOMORROW, POSSIBLY UP
TO 110 FOR PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. IF CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS/HEAT INDICES
LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THURSDAY, LESS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. WHILE FORECAST HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE EXISTING HEADLINES AS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL STILL
EXPERIENCE DANGEROUS TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HOT, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, SOME AREAS IN THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES FOR
FRIDAY. SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH MORE CONVECTION AROUND, BUT ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES
TO BREAK DOWN. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID AND UPPER 80S (LOW 90S
POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY), BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING, BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING
IS LESS EVIDENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
COUPLE RIPPLES MOVING OVERTOP THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE THE CAP
WILL BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY, IT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS
STRONG AS SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE.
WITH NUMEROUS OFBS LEFTOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AND HODOGRAPHS ARE SHORTER, SO WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS OPPOSED TO MORE
COHERENT LINE SEGMENTS LIKE YESTERDAY. THAT SAID, CAPE VALUES
>3000J/KG AND DCAPE >1000 J/KG WILL LEAD TO A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS,
IMPRESSIVE CAPE THROUGH THE HGZ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
CONVECTIVE THREAT LOOKS LOWER THURSDAY, WITH MORE CAPPING, THE RIDGE
AXIS A LITTLE CLOSER, AND THE BETTER UPPER FORCING DISPLACED NORTH
OF THE REGION. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADKS, LIKELY DUE TO HIGH TO EXTREME CAPE AGAIN AND SLIGHTLY MORE
SHEAR, BUT THE THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL UPON SOME SORT OF TRIGGER
MECHANISM BEING ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EACH DAY WILL STILL FEATURE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, WITH
STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REMAIN FUZZY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGHOUT THAT TIME. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MIST/FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, PARTICULARLY AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR, WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING MORE VARIABLE AND STRONG
WINDS/GUSTS TO ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP
TO 20-30 KTS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
BEFORE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
INDEPENDENCE DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
LAST 100-DEGREE DAY:
ALBANY: SEPTEMBER 3, 1953
GLENS FALLS: JULY 10, 1988
POUGHKEEPSIE: JUNE 24, 2025
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ038>041-043-
047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ025.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ014.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33
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