363
FXUS61 KALY 270607
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOLLOWING A WARM WEEKEND WITH SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS, A WARMUP IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS 850 HPA TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO +17 TO +20C (ABOUT
+2 TO +2.5 STDEV). THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON MONDAY AND THE MID-80S TO AT LEAST LOW IF
NOT LOCALLY MID-90S TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION, GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WILL INCREASE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES (FEELS- LIKE TEMPERATURES) REACHING AT LEAST HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MULTIPLE DAYS (95F OR HIGHER), ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEY AREAS. THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEATRISK PLACES MOST OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MODERATE TO
MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF EACH NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S. THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND.
BEING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MAY PASS OVER THE RIDGE ('RIDGE ROLLERS') WHICH
COULD BRING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY PASS THROUGH DURING TIMES OF PEAK HEATING.
WHILE THE PASSAGE OF STORMS WILL HELP EASE THE HEAT FOR A SHORT
TIME, THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN REGARDLESS. TIMING AND
TRACK OF EACH SHORTWAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH FOG BECOMING LESS
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS, EVEN IF CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN. AT KGFL,
PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
VARIABLE VSBYS FROM MVFR TO LIFR UNTIL 12Z/SAT. THEREAFTER, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF KPOU SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCSH THERE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BEGIN TO FORM PRIOR TO
06Z/SUN, MAINLY AT KGFL, BUT WILL ADDRESS AT THE NEXT TAF
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 1:
ALBANY: 99 (1913)
GLENS FALLS: 100 (1913)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1933)
JULY 2:
ALBANY: 98 (1966, 1901)
GLENS FALLS: 96 (1911, 1901)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 97 (1966)
JULY 3:
ALBANY: 102 (1911)
GLENS FALLS: 101 (1911)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 103 (1966)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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