473
FXUS61 KALY 300600
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND/WIND GUST MAGNITUDES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF DEPARTURE OF
CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH 30-40 MPH AT
TIMES.
2) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WITH SOME
FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOUTHERN VT
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TONIGHT.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
DAYBREAK, AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE DAY. TIGHT
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS TO REACH 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELED FLOW. STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THIS AFTERNOON.
BAND OF SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
PIVOT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING,
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY REMAIN EAST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN VT, AND FOR ELEVATIONS
MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, STRONG DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH, OR CHANGE TO SNOW BY DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING. FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, UP TO
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON COLDER SURFACES THIS
MORNING.
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING, THOUGH MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST VT, UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
NOONTIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 40S AND LOWER 50S DURING
THIS MORNING, BEFORE REACHING LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S, COOLEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP OFF INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER EVEN
COLDER TEMPS WILL OCCUR, AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN
OFF TO OUR WEST, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT BREEZE TO PERSIST
AND LIMIT OVERALL COOLING POTENTIAL. SHOULD WINDS BECOME CALM,
FROST AND COLDER TEMPS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THESE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD POOL WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SHALLOW INSTABILITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ANY STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL
TAF SITES TO START, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR BETWEEN 09-15Z/SAT AS ONE MORE PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE
TAF SITES. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS, DECREASING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY SKC CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD
00Z/SUN. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z/SAT WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KT BY 00Z/SUN BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM TOWARD 06Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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