322  
FXUS61 KALY 301817  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
217 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID, WITH  
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING, WITH WARM BUT LESS HUMID  
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 2 PM EDT, MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH  
PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-90.  
 
THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING, HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, WITH ISOLATED  
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF I-87/SOUTH OF I-90  
TOWARD 6 PM AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
 
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 PM AND  
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS CLUSTERS/BANDS OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY  
TRACK NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN  
LOW, ELEVATED INSTABILITY (MU CAPES 500-1000 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP.  
IN ADDITION, PWAT'S WILL CLIMB TO 1.75"-2" AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO  
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BECOMING WARM AND  
HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE  
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH/EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY  
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF I-90. A BREAK IN THE  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP  
AND/OR TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. MU  
CAPES REACH 1000-2000 J/KG IN THESE AREAS, WITH 25-30 KT 0-6 KM  
SHEAR. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT  
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRANSLATING INTO  
ONTARIO/SW QUEBEC. SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE  
MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS  
THAT DEVELOP. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN HIGH  
PWAT'S AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF CELLS.  
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING).  
 
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S EXCEPT PERHAPS  
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEWPOINTS  
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY MORNING AND  
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S WITHIN THE HUDSON  
RIVER VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME, NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE  
BEING ISSUES GIVEN BORDERLINE HEAT INDICES, AND BRIEF DURATION  
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S.  
 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LINGER UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SE  
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT BEFORE TAPERING OFF, WITH  
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN  
AREAS WHICH RECEIVE PRIOR RAINFALL. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S/60S.  
 
FAIR AND WARM FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SW ADIRONDACKS  
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN  
THE 50S/LOWER 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, SOME LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE  
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.  
 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS SE CANADA AND NORTHEAST  
THURSDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS (H500 35-45 KT), FALLING  
HEIGHTS ALOFT/COOLING MID LEVELS LOOKS TO PROMOTE AT LEAST  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF REINFORCING  
COLD FRONT. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG WITH APPROACHING  
LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX ALONG WITH STEEP  
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7-H5 6.5-7.5 C/KM) SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME  
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PERHAPS SEVERE WITH  
WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY FAIR BUT COOLER  
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, THEN WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS  
BY SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
DEPENDING ON POSSIBLE RIDGE-ROLLING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE  
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S FRIDAY,  
WARMING TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE  
50S/60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THROUGH 18Z/TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT  
OR ABOVE 5000 FT AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE  
REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO SOME PASSING RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 05-  
10Z/TUE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THESE SHOWERS BUT  
SOME BRIEF MVFR PERIODS COULD OCCUR. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS AT  
KPOU SO INCLUDED A PROB30 WITH THIS UPDATE. A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD  
OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z/TUE. WIND WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT 10 KT OR LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
INDEPENDENCE DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 
 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV/RATHBUN  
NEAR TERM...KL  
SHORT TERM...KL  
LONG TERM...KL  
AVIATION...RATHBUN  
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