819  
FXUS61 KALY 272331  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
731 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING EAST FROM THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COOL  
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN  
SHOWERS TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY,  
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AND  
EAST AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST  
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING DRY COOL WEATHER.  
HURRICANE IAN WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WITH MORE  
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND  
A SEPARATE AREA FROM THE RENSSELAER PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN VT.  
MANY AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY THROUGH  
CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND POINTS NORTH. THE  
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK  
VALLEY, WHERE THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, TOO.  
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH  
THE EVENING AS DIURNAL SUBSIDENCE AND STABILITY OCCURS. SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES, SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH  
THE NIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
A COOL WESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING A PRECIPITATION PATTERN MOST  
COMMONLY SEEN DURING WINTER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY  
THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WITH RAIN  
INSTEAD OF SNOW IN THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS EAST OF THE GREAT  
LAKES. A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN EXTENDS EAST  
FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON,  
WHILE A WEAKER AND BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXTENDING EAST  
FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS  
REACHING INTO THE NORTHWEST CATSKILLS. SOME ELEMENTS OF HEAVIER  
RAIN CAN BE SEEN AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND  
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES AROUND +5 C AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE  
AROUND +18 C SO THIS DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN ENOUGH FOR THESE  
LAKE EFFECT FEATURES TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST. SATELLITE IMAGERY  
IS SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE  
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PATTERN  
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. FLOW DIRECTION WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON, THEN IT MAY BACK TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF  
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CROSSING CENTRAL INTO EASTERN  
NY OVERNIGHT. THE LAKE BAND MAY BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AWHILE  
THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THEN EXPECT  
ANOTHER PERIOD OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.  
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE BAND INTO THIS EVENING.  
SHOWERS MAY ENHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN  
NY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE,  
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS PATTERN WILL BRING  
MAINLY DRY, PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL FAVOR  
LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SHIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY  
WITH A TENDENCY FOR MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE OVER CENTRAL NY SOUTH  
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD STILL BE ENOUGH  
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF  
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THE COVERAGE  
OF RAIN WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LESS FOR OUR AREA THAN TODAY.  
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE JUST A BIT BELOW  
NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER  
TERRAIN AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END WITH  
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CLEAR TO PARTLY  
CLOUDY AND COOL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE  
40S, BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME 30S OVER NORMALLY COLDER  
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS,  
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY  
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TC  
IAN AND A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, CONSENSUS FAVORS ANY  
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO WORK  
INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE OFFICIAL DETERMINISTIC NHC FORECAST FOR IAN HAS THE CENTER OVER  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT,  
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CAROLINAS. A  
STRONG ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST,  
WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF POST-TC IAN. AS A  
RESULT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THIS FORECAST UNDERCUT THE LOWS FROM NBM  
SLIGHTLY. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.  
 
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS  
LIKELY TO BE A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA,  
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF IAN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN A SIGNIFICANTLY  
WEAKENED FORM. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE  
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HINDER THE  
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL  
REMNANTS. HOWEVER, SOME NBM MEMBERS BRING THE MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH  
NORTH FOR AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN  
ZONES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW ARE NOT  
LIKELY TO MOVE TOO MUCH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SINCE THEY ARE CUT OFF  
FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE ARE NOT  
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF IAN, BUT SOME  
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY OVER THE WEEKEND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE CLOSE  
TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z THU...CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE 00Z  
TAF CYCLE. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING VFR STRATUS  
AND SHOWERS AROUND. THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS THAT  
COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR IS AT KALB THROUGH 03Z AND KGFL  
THROUGH 08Z. TEMPOS WERE INCLUDED TO DELINEATE THE MOST LIKELY  
TIMEFRAME OF THIS OCCURRENCE. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT.  
 
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 12Z WED INTO THE  
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING  
RAISES CLOUD BASES TO VFR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK THROUGH  
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.  
 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KT  
OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT BEHIND THE  
FRONT IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MSE  
NEAR TERM...MSE/NAS  
SHORT TERM...MSE  
LONG TERM...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
 
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