224
FXUS61 KALY 090716
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
316 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS ITERATION THAT WOULD IMPACT THE
INTEGRITY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO ENSURE SKY COVER, POPS, AND TEMPERATURES REFLECTED LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ALL ELSE REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TODAY BRINGING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD, STEADY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LARGELY LIGHT NATURE
OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND BEGINS ON A DREARY NOTE WITH WIDESPREAD,
STEADY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. AN INITIAL
BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, EASTWARD-PROPAGATING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WEAK, INVERTED-TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL
FIRST SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, LOWER MID-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD- TRACKING WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EJECTING NORTH AND
EASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THESE SHOWERS WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN AREA OF STEADY, STRATIFORM RAIN. MOST RAINFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE GIVEN OUR DISTANCE FROM
THE STRONGER AXIS OF FORCING, BUT PERIODS OF MODERATE RATES BOTH
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON VALLEY, AND
SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND INCREASING, SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB. THAT SAID, THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET AND OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO ITS RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION COULD ALSO SUPPORT BRIEF, LOCALIZED MODERATE
RATES AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
DESPITE ANY MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AMID A PROLONGED, LIGHT AND
STEADY RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO REACH ~0.1" UP TO 0.5" WITH THE
HIGHEST OF THESE SPANNING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE ANY CONCERNS OF FLOODING.
A BREAK IN STEADY RAINFALL COMES THIS EVENING ONCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, NOT FAR BEHIND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STILL
DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR OVERHEAD
IN CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
ALSO BE ON THE APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, DRIVING SUFFICIENT
FORCING IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION, THOUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING COURTESY OF THE LOW
BEGINNING TO TAKE A TURN NORTHWARD, THESE WILL BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. AND, WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INFLUX BECOMING CUT OFF WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST UPSTREAM, THESE SHOWERS, TOO, ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL RATES OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY MODERATE
DOWNPOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THEREFORE, THE
EXPECTATION FOR A LACK OF HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES PERSISTS.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY AS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINS TO SLOW AND A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THAT SAID, BY
MONDAY MORNING, THE FRONT AND ITS LOW WILL HAVE DEPARTED FAR
ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TO ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE WEST TO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING A PLEASANT RANGE OF 50S TO LOW 60S.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN COME FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKES THE PLACE OF TUESDAY'S
UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THIS RAIN ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BENEFICIAL AND NOT OF A MAGNITUDE THAT WOULD POSE A CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL INITIALLY REACH POU AND PSF BEFORE 12 UTC. WHILE VIS LIKELY
BECOMES MVFR DURING INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS, LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN AT POU MATCHING
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CIGS AT PSF. SHOWERS GRADUALLY RISE NORTHWARD REACHING ALB BY
12 - 14 UTC AGAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VIS BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REACH GFL CLOSER TO MIDDAY WITH MVFR
CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED. RAIN TURNS STEADY AT ALL TERMINALS BY 16
TO 19 UTC RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH EVEN A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IFR VIS. THE STEADIEST RAIN EXITS BY FROM WEST
TO EAST BY 21 - 23 UTC WITH VIS LIKELY REMAINING MVFR DUE TO
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS/MIST WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 12
TO 15 UTC SUSTAINED 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25KTS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER AT GFL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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