681
FXUS61 KALY 180557
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION, HAVE INCREASED GUSTS WITHIN MIXING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION, QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME FLAKES COULD OCCUR
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT WILL BE MELTING DUE TO ABOVE FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY BUT MUCH
COLDER WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD END AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AS ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
2) ALTHOUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOR
TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THIS
EVENING. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. MIXING WON'T BE TOO DEEP DUE TO AN INVERSION ALOFT
AROUND 900 HPA, BUT SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTING 20-30 MPH TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S, ALTHOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MAY SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND MORE CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST. WITH THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY, THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR STRONG CONVECTION BUT
SOME MODERATE DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT WILL START TO WETBULB DOWN ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL RAPIDLY AND WILL
BE IN 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING (SOME MID TO UPPER
30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS). DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE JUST
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS, HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
CATSKILLS, ADIRONDACKS, GREENS AND BERKSHIRES MAY SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES. IT COULD BRIEFLY GO TO ALL SNOW
FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS WITH A LIGHT DUSTING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. DURING SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF PRECIP, IT'S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME WET FLAKES TO MIX EVEN FOR LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO SURFACE TEMPS
REMAINING JUST WARM ENOUGH. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING WET SURFACES COULD GET
SLICK, ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY UNLIKELY DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS DECENT MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. SOME
GUSTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AS
WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY TO START THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS (30S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS). A
FEW PASSING FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT,
IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL, WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PULLS EASTWARD AND HIGHS SHOULD RISE TOWARDS THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. WHILE THIS WILL BE MILDER THAN MONDAY, IT IS STILL
BELOW NORMAL AND ALSO MUCH COOLER THAN THE RECENT MILD
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION AS WELL.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK, AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION MAY BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS SOME GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
IF THE RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST, SOME REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL,
THE EXTREME WARMTH OF THIS PAST WEEK DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
RETURNING TO THE REGION JUST YET.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AS OF 1:05 AM EDT, FLYING CONDITIONS RE VFR AT
ALL TERMINALS, BUT CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME PATCHY MVFR
STRATUS BETWEEN 2000-3500 FT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT ALB/GFL, WITH THIS STRATUS THROUGH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THEN, ANY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXES OUT WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MORE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS, AND THE MVFR STRATUS MAY
REDEVELOP AT POU/PSF AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE SE THIS MORNING AND 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT FROM THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR POU/PSF/GFL WITH WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 KT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LLWS AT GFL/PSF AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TO 35-40 KT FROM THE S/SW TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AT ALB, SFC WINDS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LLWS
CONCERNS, WHILE AT POU THE LOE-LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG THUS NO MENTION OF LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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