880
FXUS61 KALY 090554
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE:
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SOME VALLEY AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED TO THE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINING OVERHEAD TODAY COULD
STILL ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
HAMILTON AND WARREN COUNTIES. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING +19 TO +20C BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
MID-80S TO LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY (AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL). IT WILL BECOME MORE HUMID BUT NOT AS OPPRESSIVE
AS OTHER TIMES THIS SUMMER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
THIS COULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES (OR FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES) TO APPROACH THE MID-90S ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME RELIEF EACH NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S MOST NIGHTS. LOWS WILL ONLY
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICAL LOCALS.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE FRONT
CROSSES AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING, WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST ON WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ARRIVE EARLIER IN THE DAY. FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD STILL APPROACH THE MID-90S
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY
PASS THROUGH OR NEAR THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT DOES LOOK TO
NEARLY CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY BUT MAY STALL JUST TO THE
SOUTH. WHERE THE FRONT STALLS, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY, WILL RUN
WITH 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN WARM BUT NOT AS WARM AS EARLIER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR KALB AND KPOU.
FOR KGFL, PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09/12Z. FOR KPSF, TOWARDS
SUNRISE THEY COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO KPSF AND KGFL
BY 12Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CALM
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN
DISCUSSION...RATHBUN
AVIATION...WEBB
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