535
FXUS61 KALY 092349
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
749 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
2) TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRATIFORM
RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND, LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, THE CHANCES
ARE LOW (LESS THAN 20%). BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL IN STORE
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE INDICATING
SHOWERS DEVELOPING A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AS A
LEAD DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. WILL
MENTION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DEVELOPING FROM NW TO SE FOR
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE TODAY,
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN SPREAD SOUTH/EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE (INCLUDING REFS/HREF)
STILL INDICATING LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPE < 500 J/KG FROM
AROUND ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. IT IS
LIKELY STORMS WILL NOT GROW TALL ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE THOUGH.
SPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR A SMALL AREA INCLUDING THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SW ADIRONDACKS FOR A FEW POSSIBLE ROGUE STRONGER GUSTS. SEVERE
PROBS REMAIN LOW THOUGH DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND STORMS
MOVING IN PRIMARILY AFTER DARK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH PWAT ANOMALIES NOW FORECAST
TO BE +2 TO +3 STDEV FROM THE NAEFS. SO BRIEF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW DUE TO EXPECTED FAST
STORM MOTION AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH, EXCEPT > 1" IN THE W/SW
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL WANE BY DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WITH STRENGTHENING SW WINDS ALOFT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
(35-45 KT AT 850 MB), OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL OCCUR
IN FAVORED S-N ORIENTED VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN SLOPES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU IN A
DEVELOPING DEEPER MIXING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE WARM (HIGHS 80-85F IN HUDSON VALLEY) DUE TO DEEPER MIXING,
ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER IN THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY FRI-SAT PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. IT WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE HUMID DURING THIS TIME. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ON TUE AS A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT CONTINUE LIFT NORTH OF KALB-
KPSF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PERIODS OF
RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT KGFL WITH IFR/MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS,
FURTHER SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KALB/KPSF WHERE
LIGHTER RAIN HAS OCCURRED AND KPOU CONTINUES TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN STAYING TO THE NORTH AT 5 KFT AGL. A PREFRONTAL
DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTH TO KGFL. TEMPOS OR PROB30S WERE USED TO BRING IN THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT 02Z-05Z/THU FOR KGFL; 04Z-07Z/THU
FOR KALB; 05Z-08Z/THU FOR KPSF WITH VSBYS POTENTIALLY TO IFR
LEVELS AND CIGS MAINLY MVFR 1.5-3.0 KFT AGL, EXCEPT FOR AT KGFL
CIGS COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. KPOU MAY HAVE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A
PROB30 USED 07-10Z/THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
DISTURBANCE, THE CIGS RISE BACK FROM MVFR/LOW VFR LEVELS
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/THU. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW-SCT CUMULUS AND
SCT CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8-15 KT TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS VEER TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST 07Z-10Z/THU AT 8-12 KT, AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 12-18 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. LLWS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU FROM ABOUT 00Z
TO 08Z/THU, WHERE THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS ARE 40-45 KT AND THE SFC
WINDS MAY BE 10 KT OR LESS AT TIMES. LLWS WAS USED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...15
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