168
FXUS61 KALY 111033
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
633 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION FOR MOTHER'S DAY. HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK ABOVE MID-MAY NORMALS AS THE
HIGH DEPARTS, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BEAUTIFUL MOTHER'S DAY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY.
- PATCHY FROST TONIGHT IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO 30S.
DISCUSSION:
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN VR SOUTHWEST INTO THE CATSKILLS, JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED IT, WITH
MORE OVERCAST SKIES LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WERE COOL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT IS
LARGELY ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
[PREVIOUS DISCUSSION]...A COLD FRONT WAS TRAVERSING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, FURTHER USHERING IN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCER OF
OUR MOTHER'S DAY WEATHER, ENSURING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY AIR AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S (TERRAIN)
TO NEAR 70 (VALLEYS), WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S (TERRAIN) TO LOW 40S (VALLEYS). WITH THE GROWING SEASON
UNDERWAY IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, SOME
PATCHY FROST COULD DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
AND/OR THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE NEED
FOR FROST ADVISORIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED MONDAY INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
- LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF RAIN RETURN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO
START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, DEEP
MIXING, MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND 825-850 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING +10C TO
+12C, OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S (TERRAIN) TO MID 50S
(VALLEYS). HUMIDITIES WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS
CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
ON TUESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO OUR SOUTH AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TAKES AIM AT THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CVA INTO THE REGION AND
ENOUGH LIFT TO RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILL REGIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST NBM MAINTAINS LOW (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN AS SOME
MODELS ATTEMPT TO HANG ON TO DRY AIR INTO TUESDAY EVENING, SO LOOK
FOR ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS TO THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION:
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL START TO MOVE NORTHEAST ON WED, WHILE ALSO
WEAKENING. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST STILL PERSISTS, BUT ALSO STARTING TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. SO
BOTTOM LINE IS INCREASING CLOUDS, WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
TRENDING FROM NEAR NORMAL WED TO ABOVE NORMAL THU.
A STRONGER NORTHERN LATITUDE SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO APPROACH ON
FRI WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE MAIN
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE WELL NORTH/WEST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PWAT
ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 STDEV), HEATING (TEMPERATURES UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S) AND FORCING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND SOME T-STORMS
ESPECIALLY DURING DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR MAGNITUDES, SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ON SAT AS
THE UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER, WITH OUR REGION IN AN AREA DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW CORE. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
DETAILS IS LOW UNTIL MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH/WEST. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF,
BUT DRY AIR MASS SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 15-20 KT DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
HYDROLOGY
ANY RIVERS REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RECEDE AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
KEEP UPDATED WITH THE LATEST RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
FROM OUR NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) WEBPAGE AT
WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/ALY.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECK
NEAR TERM...SPECK
SHORT TERM...SPECK
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...RATHBUN
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