631
FXUS61 KALY 062330
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, AND LOWERED TEMPS UP TO A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AROUND.
FOR TOMORROW, SOME MODEST INCREASES MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS,
BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO A
COATING UP TO 2" OF SNOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES, BUT A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL
NEVERTHELESS BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:45 PM EDT...OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ALOFT, WHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS COLD ADVECTION OVER THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES TO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF I-90
WHERE THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. RADAR REFLECTIVITY
LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY MAKING IT TO THE SFC
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND 15-20 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND,
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
30S (TERRAIN) TO 40S (VALLEYS). BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER, WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM
AROUND 20-30 KT.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING TOWARDS SUNSET, AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, BY LATE
TONIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR/ALONG I-90 LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WON'T HAVE A TON OF MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL
FGEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH ON THE W/NW
FLANK OF THE SFC LOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS, BUT SOME RAIN COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN FOR
VALLEY AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A GENERAL 1-3" IS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-90 AND IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH A COATING TO
A HALF INCH FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF I-90. WITH MARGINAL
THERMAL PROFILES, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THAT SAID, A FEW
SLICK SPOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING, SO
TRAVELERS SHOULD STILL PLAN FOR A FEW EXTRA MINUTES ADDED TO THE
AM COMMUTE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. WE
WENT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW
GIVEN A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND. TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BREEZY, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SFC
HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A 1038 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BENEATH UPPER
CONFLUENCE TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING CENTERED OVERHEAD BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL EFFECTIVELY RADIATE INTO THE 10S TO 20S, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE ADKS. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN LARGE- SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, AND TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO LOOK
BREEZY WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS TRACKING TO OUR W/NW AND THE
SFC HIGH LINGERING OFF THE EAST COAST. GIVEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND EARLY SPRING DEEP BL MIXING, WE INCREASED
DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE THE NBM WED/THU AND LOWERED DEW POINTS EACH
AFTERNOON. WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES FRIDAY EVENING OR NIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR W/NW, HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION, FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY NOW,
WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AM DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND A VERY PLEASANT SPRING WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 50S (TERRAIN) TO 60S (VALLEYS) BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO START THE
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THIS
EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH SCT -SHSN
(EXCEPT -SHRASN AT KPOU) DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OCCASIONAL IFR VSBY
EXPECTED WITHIN -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF WITH MVFR CIGS. THERE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF WHERE THE MOST
PERSISTENT -SHSN WILL SET UP, SO WILL MENTION PROB30 GROUPS FOR
NOW UNTIL THIS COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS. THE SCT -SHSN SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 17Z OR 18Z FOR MOST SITES, SO WILL MENTION AN
ADDITIONAL PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LIKELY PREVAIL AFTER 18Z ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL
INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...07
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