208  
FXUS61 KALY 250921  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
421 AM EST THU FEB 25 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLDER AND MORE SEASONABLE LATE FEBRUARY AIR MASS WILL  
BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH BLUSTERY  
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH. COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND  
A WARM FRONT BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 421 AM EST...A BLUSTERY LATE FEBRUARY MORNING ACROSS  
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED  
ACROSS THE REGION, AND LOW PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED AND  
INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. THE  
NYS MESONET INDICATES MAINLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-47 MPH RANGE,  
THOUGH A FEW REACH 50 MPH SUCH AS AT HERKIMER AT 50 MPH PRIOR  
TO MIDNIGHT, AND 51 MPH AT JOHNSTOWN. KALB SHORTLY AFTER 07Z HIT  
47 MPH. THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK WITH SOME GUSTS STILL IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, AS THE  
925 HPA WINDS CONTINUE TO BE 25-35 KTS.  
 
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION AND THIS WILL  
FOCUS SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS  
AND THE SOUTHERN GREENS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. A FEW OF  
THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE WILL ALSO  
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND  
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON  
THE LIGHT SIDE ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH, BUT  
SOME ISOLATED ONE INCH AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN  
GREENS/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 
THE SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND IT  
WILL STILL REMAIN BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH  
SOME GUSTS 25-35 MPH. IN THE COLD ADVECTION, H850 TEMPS  
ACCORDING THE GFS/GEFS MEAN WILL FALL TO -8C TO -15C ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA.  
 
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION  
NORTH AND WEST EARLY TODAY, BUT THEN A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL  
TEND TO BE MOST PERSISTENT ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE  
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL  
AS ALONG THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL  
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE FEB WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE MTNS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY,  
AND MAINLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST  
TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER  
AND THE SKIES WILL BE LIKELY BE MORE CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL  
BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS  
OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE  
ADIRONDACK PARK AND SOUTHERN GREENS, AND TEENS FOR THE REST OF  
THE REGION. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID  
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  
 
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ~1035 HPA MOVES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND  
AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. FLAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL BE BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE  
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AFTER  
THE MORNING FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH NORTHWEST OF THE  
CAPITAL REGION. SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE  
SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH LESS MIXING. EXPECT UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.  
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND  
ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. THE LATEST 00Z EC/NAM/GFS HAS TRENDED  
FASTER WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL OVERSPREADING THE  
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/SAT. MIN  
TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY  
RISE OR STEADY THEREAFTER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID  
20S.  
 
SATURDAY...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT  
AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SFC WAVE SHEARS OUT OVER NORTHERN NY AND  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES OFF THE MID  
ATLANTIC COAST. A STRONG H850 SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OF 40-50 KT WILL  
FOCUS A BURST OF SNOW IN THE MORNING, AND SIMILAR TO THE EVENT  
THIS PAST MON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF  
THE SNOW OFF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WESTERN NEW ENGLAND  
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. A MINIMUM IN THE  
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE CAPITAL REGION, SCHOHARIE  
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT LESS THAN A  
HALF INCH OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
COULD RECEIVE 2-4" BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. 1-2" OR 1-3" IS  
POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION, THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,  
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS, BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. THE MODEL  
SOUNDINGS LOOK ISOTHERMAL, SO WE CONTINUE TO THINK A SNOW TO  
RAIN TRANSITION IS LIKELY. THE PCPN WILL BECOME SPOTTY AND LESS  
ORGANIZED IN THE AFTERNOON, AS THE WARM FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH.  
HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE  
MTNS, AND LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY  
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH  
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS, BUT DRIER WEATHER  
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.  
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE  
LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS TWO SEPARATE  
PIECES OF ENERGY APPROACH OUR AREA. THE SOUTHERN PIECE IS EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD  
BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. WITH THE LIKELY SCATTERED  
NATURE OF PRECIPITATION, WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR THIS  
UPDATE.  
 
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND  
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,  
COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
MONDAY WITH SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE  
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD REACH THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID-40S ACROSS  
THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD THE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION  
IN THE MORNING, THESE WILL LIKELY BE EARLY DAY HIGHS WITH FALLING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WIND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
INTO THE REGION. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS WELL. IT  
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND  
TEENS IN MOST AREAS. SUNNY, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON  
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR  
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THIS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL/KPOU  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KPSF OVERNIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SHIFT IN WIND  
DIRECTION AS WELL AS A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CLOUDS. CEILINGS AT  
KALB/KGFL SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET (3500-4500 FEET AT KPOU)  
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT KPSF, CEILINGS  
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO 2000-3000 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING  
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY  
CLEAR AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO  
35 KT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHER GUSTS AT KALB/KPSF) BEFORE  
DECREASING TO 10 KT OR LESS THURSDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS AT  
KGFL/KPOU FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AS 2000 FT WINDS REMAIN  
40-45 KT AND SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ON THE LIGHTER  
SIDE WHEN COMPARED TO KALB/KPSF.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.  
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO MAJOR HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH INTO THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
SOME MELTING AND SUBLIMATION OF THE SNOWPACK IN THE VALLEYS IS  
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TIME OVER THE NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED RIVER  
FORECAST MODELS SHOW MINOR UP AND DOWN CHANGES IN RIVER FLOWS  
DUE TO THE DIURNAL FREEZE/THAW CYCLE. RIVER ICE IS NOT EXPECTED  
TO BREAK UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, GENERALLY  
IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND THE  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IS  
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE  
THE WEEKEND. SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF THE SNOW PACK IS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE  
INTO THE MID WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...RATHBUN  
AVIATION...RATHBUN  
HYDROLOGY...NAS/WASULA  
 
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