929  
FXUS61 KALY 080258  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
958 PM EST TUE FEB 7 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO THIS  
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH  
MAINLY RAINFALL, THROUGH PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A  
WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 958 PM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS  
THE FINGER LAKES AND WEST-CENTRAL PA. THERE HAD BEEN WIDESPREAD  
BANDS OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST  
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW  
ENDING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS  
(MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN) IS STILL  
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NW CT, BUT THIS WILL BE ENDING THERE  
SHORTLY. BECAUSE THE STEADY ACTIVITY IS ENDING, THE WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT HAS BEEN  
CANCELED EARLY.  
 
BEHIND THIS STEADY ACTIVITY, A DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL  
ALLOW SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO UPSLOPE THE HIGH  
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS, BERKSHIRES AND GREENS FOR THE LATE  
NIGHT HOURS. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR THE LATE  
NIGHT, THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY STILL SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR  
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS UNTREATED SURFACES OVER  
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  
 
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE  
LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 20S TO MID  
30S. SOME CLEARING MAY FINALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS  
TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY  
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO  
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK  
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS. IT WILL BECOME  
BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE MOHAWK VALLEY,  
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES FAVORED FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS.  
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH SOME PORTIONS OF  
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS STUCK IN THE UPPER 20S.  
 
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL AND  
SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS WE ARE POSITIONED ON  
THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIFT ALONG A NORTHWARD  
PROGRESSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO  
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER, SOME SHELTERED AREAS AND  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET FOR  
A PERIOD OF SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN THE  
MORE DOMINANT FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR INTO THE EVENING IN  
THE 30S AND 40S. THE SYSTEM'S DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY  
TAPERING OFF OR DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WE REMAIN  
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH  
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 30S AND 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AT THIS POINT, THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN  
NORMAL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  
QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, LIKELY PREVENTING ANY  
INCURSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR. AS THURSDAY'S SYSTEM MOVES OFF INTO  
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY, A WARM DAY IS POSSIBLE FOR  
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DEEP  
MIXING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS  
COULD REACH THE 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY/LITCHFIELD COUNTY IF  
THE TIMING IS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE COLD ADVECTION WORKS  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A MUCH COOLER BUT STILL  
SEASONABLE DAY FOR SATURDAY. CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM  
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BUT  
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING  
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. ASSUMING THIS IS THE  
CASE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE PARKED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. WARM ADVECTION MONDAY AHEAD OF A  
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY MILD  
DAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THROUGH 00Z THU...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVER  
THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME ICE PELLETS MAY MIX IN  
WITH RAIN AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL, WHILE KPSF/KGFL MAY ALSO SEE  
TEMPERATURES DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AN ISOLATED  
LIGHTNING STRIKE COULD OCCUR AT KPSF EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT  
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. DUE TO A VERY  
DRY AIRMASS BEFORE THE SHOWERS MOVED IN, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
VFR DURING THE PRECIP, ALTHOUGH VSBY COULD FALL TO MVFR IN HEAVIER  
BURSTS. EXPECT CIGS TO EASE DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY RISING AND  
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE TAF  
PERIOD (GUSTS TO 25 KT AT KALB BRIEFLY), DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT.  
WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS  
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WHERE SURFACE WINDS  
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KT, WHICH IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.  
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RATHBUN  
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/RATHBUN  
SHORT TERM...RATHBUN  
LONG TERM...THOMPSON  
AVIATION...THOMPSON  
 
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