116
FXUS61 KALY 031125
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE GREAT LAKES SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY AND
TOMORROW PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S. BY FRIDAY, THE OMEGA BLOCK BREAKS
DOWN WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD OF THE NORTHEAST. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES BOTH
DAYS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW ON FRIDAY THEREBY
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. WHILE HUMIDITY
LEVELS RISE A BIT BY SATURDAY, INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
LOWER AND THUS LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED ISSUES.
AREAS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY
AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST
OF THE DAY WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING UNDER A 25%
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY. REGARDLESS,
BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND AN APPROACHING
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP DIRECT A MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE GULF INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT, PWATS RISE 1 TO 1.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE NAEFS BY SATURDAY.
FALLING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG A
BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN
INCREASING PWATS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM AND THIS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN
COLLABORATION WITH WFO BTV. LUCKILY, SOILS WILL BE DRY FROM THE
RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SO FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE WIDESPREAD CHANCE AND LIKELY
POPS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
BROAD, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY LINGER
OVERHEAD. THEN, EXPECTING A DRYING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY EXIT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING FROM CANADA BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12/THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION
TODAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY FEW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT, THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT VERY LOW AS WE REMAIN DRY IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KGFL AROUND 06Z
INTO SUNRISE TOMORROW WHERE MIST COULD LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY TO MVFR/IFR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
FOLLOWING TAF CYCLES. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME 5-10 KT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.
WINDS TAPER OFF AND BECOME CALM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...53
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