904
FXUS61 KALY 151049
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 FOR FRIDAY. ALSO,
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING
WITH STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AMID RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS AND RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF INCOMING WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
2) DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY TODAY, PHASING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK EAST, WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT, WITH BANDS OF RAIN DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. STRONG FORCING AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER
TO OCCUR TOWARD AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
CAPITAL/SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT. LATEST
NBM 6-HOUR PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 8 AM FRIDAY ARE
~10-20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ALTHOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
SOME PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD MAKE FOR A
WET FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN THESE AREAS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES OVERHEAD AROUND AND SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND WITHIN SOME
NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. LATEST REFS SUGGEST SOME GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECREASING AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES BY AND
WEAKENS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SOME SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
IF SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN DEVELOP. LATEST HREFS AND REFS SUGGEST
SB CAPES OF 100-250 J/KG MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90.
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW 0-6 KM SHEAR TO
INCREASE TO 50-60 KT AMID THIS INSTABILITY, PARALLEL TO THE
INCOMING FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW TOPPED
LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 ACCORDINGLY. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, SOME WIND GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 25-35 MPH, PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER SATURDAY MORNING AS
MIXING DEEPENS. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, PARTIALLY FROM LAKE EFFECT, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN VT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHERE
SOME COATINGS TO LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES COULD EVEN OCCUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, THE BERKSHIRES, AND AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH MAINLY 40S FOR
VALLEY REGIONS. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS, WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES ("FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES) WILL BE IN THE
20S/LOWER 30S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 30S IN VALLEYS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z/FRI, MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KPSF UNTIL AROUND
14Z/THU. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT AGL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z/THU. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
BANDS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z/FRI
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (~20-25%) OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD 12Z/FRI, ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND
KGFL.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KT WILL VEER INTO THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT, EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AT KALB AND KPSF TOWARD 12Z/FRI. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z/FRI AS WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO 35-40+ KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53/24
AVIATION...24
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