706
FXUS61 KALY 081733
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) INTRODUCED IN THE DAY 2 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOCUSED IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. DAMAGING
WINDS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.
LOWERED DEW POINTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF
POTENTIALLY HITTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. CHANGED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING ON THURSDAY TO
COVERAGE (ISOLATED/SCATTERED) RATHER THAN PROBABILISTIC (SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE) GIVEN WEAK FORCING. WPC ALSO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY PRESENTS A
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 95
DEGREES IN THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY.
2) THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY AND VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW
REDEVELOPS TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
850 HPA ISOTHERMS RISE TO +16C TO +18C AS SUBTLE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. DEEP ENOUGH MIXING AS
MORNING SUN MIXES WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS SHOULD
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID-80S TO AROUND 90 IN
VALLEY AREAS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30 TO 60%
CHANCE THAT VALLEY AREAS FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION WILL REACH OR EXCEED 90
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
VALUES GIVES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 95 DEGREES PLUS HEATRISK CATEGORIES MAINLY ONLY
AROUND MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4), HEAT ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A VERY WARM AND INCREASING HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WEAK BOUNDARIES AND HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACH AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS, LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW OVERALL LOW INSTABILITY
VALUES BOTH DAYS MAINLY NEAR OR UNDER 1000 J/KG LIKELY DUE TO
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES, HOWEVER, ARE
STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION RANGING
25-30KTS TOMORROW AND INCREASING TO 30-35KTS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. GIVEN A
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM WESTERN NY/SOUTHERN CANADA AND
A FEW SHORTWAVES TRACKING MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 ON
THURSDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. CONVECTION LOOKS TO INITIATE DURING THE TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN SOUTH
OF I-90 CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH/STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT SLIDE EASTWARD. THE LATEST HREF SHOWS A 10% CHANCE FOR
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES TO EXCEED 20M/S THURS P.M, SUGGESTING
SOME STRONGER UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. LATEST SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND WESTERN NY, GRAZING OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AREAS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS.
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES ON FRIDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
A FEW DEGREES BUT HUMIDITY REMAINS ELEVATED WHICH WILL SUPPORT
INSTABILITY VALUES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. OVERALL FORCING REMAINS
WEAK WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTING
OVERHEAD BUT WITH MINIMAL HEIGHT FALLS AND A WEAK SFC COLD
FRONT ALSO APPROACHING. THE INCREASED SFC FORCING SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES,
OVERALL INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS LOW GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS
RATHER HIGH) SO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AGAIN APPEARS LOW.
LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS KEEP THE NORTHEAST JUST IN A
GENERAL THUNDER BOTH DAYS WITH WPC OUTLINING FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THURS INTO THURS NIGHT LIKELY DUE TO INCOMING COLD
FRONT. EVEN STILL, WE DO NOT EXPECT FLOODING ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
START OFF THE PERIOD ALONGSIDE CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE PRESENT AT KGFL AND KALB.
PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST/FOG FORMATION AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF,
WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY VIS RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. ANY MIST/FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY, GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN TOMORROW MORNING AND PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ADDITIONAL FAIR WEATHER LOW-TO-
MID LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page