477
FXUS61 KALY 240704
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED PATCHY FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM THE NBM VALUES WITH THE SFC HIGH
IN CONTROL OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH
THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY NOW.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOT
OF VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES/MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
PINPOINTING HEAVIER RAIN SHOWS AND GUSTY WINDS KEEPING
CONFIDENCE LOW. WINDS/WINDS GUSTS WERE INCREASED LATE FRI
THROUGH SAT BY USING A BLENDED NBM/NBM90 APPROACH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.
2) FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
(40-60%) OF WIND GUSTS > 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HYDRO IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FROM THE RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS UP TO 9 AM FOR SOUTHEAST WARREN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR AREAS OF FROST FORMING AS TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID 30S. THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC HAS PRODUCED IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY,
MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY JUNCTURE AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
TOWARDS LAKE GEORGE. THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
ANOTHER DRY AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL. MAX TEMPS WERE ACCEPTED
CLOSE TO THE NBM HIGHS WITH MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH ARE STILL
BELOW NORMAL. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AT NIGHT. LOWS WERE LOWERED
CLOSER TO A NBM/ADJMAV/CONSMOS BLEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY FORM AGAIN IN SOME OF THE RIVER AND SHELTERED VALLEYS.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AND POPS WERE REDUCED TO JUST A
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE LATE IN THE DAY FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/BERKSHIRES AND NW CT AS THEY WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOPING OCEANIC CYCLONE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OCEANIC/COASTAL LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS LIFTING
NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
AND AI HAVE THE STORM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
POTENT LOW. THE CYCLONE MAY THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND LOOP AROUND GOING OVER OR SOUTH OF THE LONG ISLAND FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS STORM TO BRING RAINFALL,
BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK AND TIMING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
DUE TO THE STRONG BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH KEEPING THIS
SYSTEM SURPRESSED. IN FACT THE LATEST EC/AI-EC HAS THIS STORM
ONLY JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND LIFTING NORTH AND BACKING WESTWARD SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND
MOVING INTO NJ SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR FORECAST LEANS CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN MOST SOLUTIONS OF THE GEFS/AI-GFS/GFS/CMC AND
SOME OF THE EC ENSEMBLES WHICH IS EXHIBITED BY THE NBM.
THE TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE AT
BEST IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FROM RAINFALL AND WIND. BANDS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. PWATS RUN ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SAT AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY. THE WAVE MAY SIT AND SPIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR
BE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, WHILE IT MEANDERS AND LOOPS
AROUND LATE SAT INTO MON. IN FACT, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO MONDAY NOW. SOME DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY TUE.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL ARE GREATEST IN THE 60-80% RANGE
FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT SOUTH AND EAST SAT THROUGH SUN. AGAIN, THE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM MAY VARY THE TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POP UP ON SUNDAY.
THE RAINFALL DOES NOT LIKE PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT WITH THE
RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NBM 48-HR PROBS >
1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 8 AM MON ARE 30-50% ALONG A
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AXIS SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS OVER NW CT. NBM
PROBS >2" ARE ONLY 20-25% FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME FOR NW CT AND
LESS THAN 15% ELSEWHERE. SOME PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREA.
WPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 ERO FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON THE
WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT,
AS THE HORIZONTAL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE NBM PROBS
> 35 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CATSKILLS,
NORTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING 2 AM SUNDAY. THESE SAME AREAS
EXCLUDING THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 2 AM
SUNDAY FOR WIND GUSTS > 40 MPH, THE PROBS LOWER TO 20-40% AND
FALL BELOW 15% FOR GUSTS>45 MPH. SOME FOLIATED TREE LIMBS COULD
BE DOWNED, BUT THE GUSTS AT THIS POINT FALL SHORT OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (46-57 MPH), BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL, IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TO KALB/KGFL/KPSF/KPOU. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
OCCURRING, AS SOME MVFR/IFR MIST HAS ALREADY FORMED AT
KGFL/KALB. RADIATIVE MIST/FOG WILL CONTINUE PRIOR TO 12Z AT
THESE TWO SITES WITH SOME REDUCTION EVEN TO LIFR LEVELS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KPSF/KPOU. THE RADIATIVE
MIST/FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/THU, AND THEN EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WITH
JUST A FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 4 KT OR LESS TO CALM THIS MORNING. THEY WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7-12 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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