024
FXUS61 KALY 270620
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
DUTCHESS AND ULSTER COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. WPC
CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA.
FOR THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, THE SEVERE OUTLOOK NOW HAS A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. SOME COULD BE SEVERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER AND DUTCHESS
COUNTIES.
3) A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC FOR TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH LOOK TO DEVELOP BY
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS TODAY. THE 00Z HRRR AND 00Z SPC HREF BOTH SHOWS
INSTABILITY SHOULD REACH THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
TODAY. AS A RESULT, STORMS LOOK TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BOWS OR
LINES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE. SOME THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL AS WELL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
FOR ANY SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND THE 00Z HRRR DOES
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HELICITY, ALTHOUGH SIG TOR
PARAMETERS LOOKS TO MAX OUT AROUND 1-2 TODAY, MAINLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AI/ML GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS WELL AND HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS SIGNAL FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND IT
NOW IS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE ALY FORECAST AREA.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT, AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS INSTABILITY TO WANE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SURGING TO 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. RAINFALL RATES CAN EASILY REACH 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.
CAMS SUGGESTS THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
SOME AREAS MAY SEE TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE CAMS
(ESPECIALLY THE RRFS) SUGGESTS THAT LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS
MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES. WHILE THE PLACEMENT HAS VARIED SOMEWHAT
FROM RUN-TO-RUN, THE CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLES SEEMS TO SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHERN AREAS (ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES) MAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AS CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY
OCCUR IN ADDITION TO A MAIN LINE OF STORMS. AS A RESULT, HAVE
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES, WHICH ALSO MATCHES UP WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC.
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DAMAGED AND IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS.
AS ALWAYS, TRAVELERS ARE REMINDER TO NEED CROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
IN ADDITION TO SOUTHERN AREAS, OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA MAY
STILL SEE FLOODING RAINFALL AND SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST PARTS
OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT COULD SEE REPEATED
DOWNPOURS AS WELL, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND POSSIBLY
EXPAND THE CURRENT WATCH FURTHER NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE STORM'S MAIN COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING ON FRIDAY. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LOWER THAN THURSDAY. THERE WON'T BE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR, SO STORMS WON'T BE ABLE TO BECOME SEVERE AND PROBABLY
WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WITH
VALUES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID
AND WARMER ON SUNDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR KGFL,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIGS DUE TO MIST
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING
AND BECOMING GUSTY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH COULD YIELD BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 18-19Z
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH STRONG AND VARIABLE
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
TOWARDS SUNSET, LEAVING BEHIND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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