254  
FXUS61 KALY 071931  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
331 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM  
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY  
BEFORE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TRAVELING UP  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
MANY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY HAVE STAYED MOSTLY CLOUDY  
IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE  
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE STAYED CLOUDY HAVE REMAINED MAINLY IN THE  
70 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAVE  
DEVELOPED ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO  
MID 80S. PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE VERY LIMITED  
BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY ACROSS THE  
DACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.  
 
TONIGHT, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW  
TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD INCREASE CLOUD COVER,  
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY, AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY  
FOG TO DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, IN THE MID 60S  
TO LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD  
AS ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, BURNS OFF. PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL  
FLOW IN PLACE. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LOOK TO  
STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR BREAKS IN CLOUD  
COVER FOR ALBANY AND POINTS NORTH. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER,  
WARMING AT THE SURFACE WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH  
SURFACE BASED MODEL CAPE REACHING 1-2K J/KG. BOTH LAPSE RATES  
AND SHEAR LOOK FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINED  
WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE, SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD  
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS  
AND HAIL POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL  
ALSO BE OF CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.75  
TO 2 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON SHOWER ACTIVITY AND  
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S  
WITH THE WARMER VALUES IN THE VALLEYS. HEAT INDICES SHOULDN'T  
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL COME CLOSE WITH MANY  
LOCATIONS FEELING LIKE THEY ARE IN THE LOW 90S.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AFTER 8-10PM,  
LEADING TO ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND  
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. FOG IS LIKELY WITH PLENTY OF LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS  
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE  
TO ABOUT +18C. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AIR TEMPERATURES  
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BUT WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE UPPER  
90S. THEREFORE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE  
VALLEY LOCATIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING A BIAS OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, THE LONG-TERM PERIOD HERE  
WILL FEATURE A REPRIEVE, ALBEIT BRIEF, FROM THE VERY WARM TO HOT  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FA (PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK). IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND ABNORMALLY STRONG 600 DAM HEAT DOME RETREATS  
WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., SOME WEAKNESS IN  
THE H500 PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  
EACH OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST ENSEMBLES (GEFS, ECE, CMC) ALL  
DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT  
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO APPALACHIA AS THE  
HEAT SHIFTS/RETREATS FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY  
RESULT IN A SLIGHT SCALE BACK IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL  
LEVELS ACROSS THE FA.  
 
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION, THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE  
TRENDS/EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COASTAL STORM AND HOW THAT  
WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  
 
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE THESE TWO FEATURES PHASE AND  
TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS SOME  
FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DAY-TO-DAY  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION DURING THE  
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE LOW SLOWS (MAYBE EVEN STALLS) NEAR IF  
NOT OVER OUR REGION.  
 
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION DURING THIS  
PERIOD TO BE DIURNALLY DERIVED AS WEAKNESS IN THE H500 PATTERN AIDS  
IN WEAKENING OF ANY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAPPING. THIS SETUP WOULD  
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER  
THE FA, IN ADDITION TO THE COLD FRONT/COASTAL STORM IMPACTS  
MENTIONED ABOVE.  
 
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON  
FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S  
ACROSS THE VALLEY, UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.  
 
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THERE'S ABOVE AVERAGE CONSENSUS AMONGST GLOBAL  
FORECAST ENSEMBLES THAT THE HEAT WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING  
IN A RETURN TO THE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FA MID  
TO LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
MAIN ISSUE REMAINS WITH THE STRATUS DECK, BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR  
CEILINGS, FROM KPOU TO KPSF. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MIXING AND  
HEATING, EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS WITH RISING  
CEILINGS THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR KALB TO KGFL,  
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
TONIGHT, THAT STRATUS AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO  
RETURN WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME  
MIST, BR, DEVELOP AS THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NARROW FURTHER.  
FURTHERMORE, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME INCREASE IN  
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.  
 
THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
THE FRONTAL AXIS. WE WILL INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS TOWARD THE END OF  
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM  
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY  
BEFORE OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TRAVELING UP  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF  
WORK WEEK AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WITH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES (1  
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL), HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE DURING ANY THUNDERSTORM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS  
WEDNESDAY AS HAVING INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND  
THEREFORE ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
ADDITIONALLY, STORMS THAT ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEATEDLY IMPACT  
THE SAME AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING,  
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN MAY IMPACT THE  
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
ITS TRACK AND TIMING.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JLV  
NEAR TERM...JLV  
SHORT TERM...JLV  
LONG TERM...EVBUOMA  
AVIATION...BGM  
FIRE WEATHER...JLV/SPECIALE  
HYDROLOGY...JLV/SPECIALE  
 
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