941
FXUS61 KALY 280007
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
707 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST STORM TRACK AND RESULTING POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW IN
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, BUT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE THE REST OF
THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WILL ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS.
3) MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK AT THIS TIME, WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING CLIPPER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER,
WITH SUCH A COLD/DRY ENVIRONMENT AND EXTREME LAKE-TEMP
INSTABILITY CLASS, LAKE EFFECT BANDS TEND TO STAY RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE. SO JUST A FEW FRAGMENTS OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR < 1" AND
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
MINIMAL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR FROM SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THU PM.
BEHIND THE FRONT ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD/FRIGID AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 ARE FORECAST FROM THE NAEFS. ACTUAL LOWS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0F TO -10F, WITH A NW BREEZE RESULTING
IN MINIMUM WIND CHILLS(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) BETWEEN -5F AND
-25F. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.
THE COLD PERSISTS FRI INTO SAT, WITH SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10S FRI
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A BREEZE PERSISTS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF OUR AREA, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SAT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS NE FROM THERE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORM'S EXACT TRACK, WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOW THE CYCLONE CENTER TRACKING WELL SOUTH/EAST OF CAPE
COD, BUT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BULK OF SNOW/IMPACTS ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE WOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY COASTAL
AREAS, BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW INLAND IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
AT THIS TIME, NBM PROBS INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR > 1" SNOW
FROM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/EAST, WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR > 4" SNOW AND A 10-30% CHANCE FOR > 7" SNOW. SO THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT THIS TIME AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ALB,
GFL AND POU FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION
IS AT PSF MAINLY FROM 00 - 03 UTC/28 AS LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS TRACK OVERHEAD RESULTING IN IFR VIS AND MVFR
CIGS. THEN, GUIDANCE SUGGEST POTENTIAL IFR CIGS TOWARDS MORNING
FROM 08 - 14 UTC BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AT GFL, ALB AND POU WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW
PACK SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALB, WE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING IT
THE LATEST TAF UPDATE BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER 12
UTC/28. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME WESTERLY
TOMORROW SUSTAINED 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...31
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