300
FXUS61 KALY 172316
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, LOWS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UP BY A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND A BREEZE IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS.
2) DESPITE A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER THE MIDWEST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS THAT ARE LIFTING NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO
THE DEPARTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
IS ONGOING, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL BE
SLOWLY DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME
BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL, SKIES WILL BE
TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING DUE TO THE COOL
TEMPS ALOFT. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY
MAY KEEP UP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY, WITH COLD
ADVECTION ENDING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA,
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS, GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL SO FAR.
MOST AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH SOME LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST TO DECREASE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM
WHAT WAS FORECASTED EARLIER TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST NBM AND
3KM HRRR, BUT THIS WAS ONLY A SUBTLE CHANGE BY A CHANGE OR TWO.
DESPITE THIS CHANGE, MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN ALREADY
DECLARED OVER DUE TO BEING PAST THE MEDIAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT
WON'T BE AS COOL AS SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S (SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS). HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES FAIRLY
CLEAR. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC FOR THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
CUTOFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW (ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AI MODELS
VS. THE PHYSICS-BASED GUIDANCE), MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH JUST A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY, THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
BREEZE TOWARDS MID-WEEK IF THE NOR'EASTER IS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS AND
30S AND 40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, SOME RADIATIONAL SHALLOW MIST/FOG
MAY FORM AT KGFL BETWEEN 09Z-12Z/SUN, AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS
USED FOR SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. WE WERE LESS CONFIDENT AT
KPSF WITH THE WINDS POTENTIALLY BEING LIGHT A LITTLE LONGER AND
THE DEW POINTS LOWER, SO WE JUST PLACED A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FROM
10Z-12Z/SUN FOR MVFR MIST. OTHERWISE, THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
4-7 KT EARLY TONIGHT, THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 3 KT OR LESS TO CALM OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
VARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 7 KT FROM THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...15
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