418  
FXUS61 KALY 251058  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
658 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90  
TODAY, WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO THE SOUTH, AND COOLER  
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE  
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN AND  
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BLUSTERY AND MUCH  
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND  
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (15 - 30% CHANCE) AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS (15% CHANCE) FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90,  
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
 
- THERE IS A 70 TO 90% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEED 75  
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
   
UPDATE
 
AS OF 625 AM EDT, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES, AND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND  
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING FOR AREAS NEAR AND JUST SOUTH  
OF I-90, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP  
THROUGH MID MORNING. SHOWER POTENTIAL SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTHWARD  
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
ALSO, ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT BASED ON LATEST  
NYS MESONET/NEW ENGLAND 511 WEBCAMS.  
 
[PREVIOUS]...AS OF 4 AM EDT, BAND OF PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF I-90,  
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD TREND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.  
HOWEVER, SURFACE FRONT MAY REMAIN NEAR, OR EVEN SINK SLIGHTLY  
SOUTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING CLOSE  
TO OR JUST NORTH OF I-90, WITH BETTER CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING  
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER  
70S TO LOWER 80S. TO THE NORTH, TEMPS MAY REMAIN COOLER,  
GENERALLY REACHING 65-70, WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT OF MAX  
TEMPS RIGHT NEAR I-90. HAVE SIDED WITH THE WARMER NBM NUMBERS IN  
THIS GENERAL AREA, WITH HIGHS IN ALBANY IN THE UPPER 70S,  
ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS  
THE FRONT DIPS SOUTHWARD.  
 
TOWARD SUNSET, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXPAND INTO  
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
REGION, WITH 24-HOUR PROBS OF RAINFALL >0.50" ENDING 2 AM  
SUNDAY 70-90%+.  
 
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (20-40%) FOR ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH  
AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
- HIGH ELEVATION SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN VT SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY, WITH 24-HOUR  
PROBS >1" SNOWFALL ENDING 2 PM SUNDAY 10-30% FOR ELEVATIONS  
ABOVE 1800 FEET.  
 
- GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH+ POSSIBLE (30-60%+) SUNDAY.  
 
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, BECOMING A  
WIDESPREAD STEADY MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS  
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS IN THE  
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY  
SINCE LAST NIGHT, WITH 01Z/25 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS OF RAINFALL  
>0.50" ENDING 2 AM SUNDAY 70-90%+, AND SIMILAR HREF PROBS FOR  
RAINFALL >0.75" 50-90% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS  
AND SOME DEVELOPING GREEN-UP/UPTAKE FROM VEGETATION IN LOWER  
ELEVATIONS, THIS WILL BE A GOOD, BENEFICIAL RAIN WITH NO  
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME.  
 
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, AS  
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF ACROSS UPPER GREAT  
LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SLOW FRONTAL  
PASSAGE ALLOWS GREATER INSTABILITY TO BUILD FOR AREAS WITHIN AND  
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z/25 HREF  
PROBS FOR SBCAPE >1000 J/KG INCREASE TO 30-60% ACROSS THE MID  
HUDSON VALLEY REGION, WITH MEAN SB CAPES OF 300-700 J/KG AMID  
35-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/EAST OF  
ALBANY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE TRENDS, AS SOME CAMS DO SUGGEST  
A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA, AND WITH STRONG  
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE, STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY,  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.  
 
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO LEADS TO WARMER MAX TEMPS REACHING  
65-70 IN FOR THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE  
EAST, WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE WEST. TEMPS WILL  
LIKELY FALL OFF QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
COOL AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW  
TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, AND SOME  
SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SOUTHERN  
VT. 01Z/25 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ENDING 2 PM  
SUNDAY ARE 10-30% FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FEET IN THESE AREAS.  
IT WILL ALSO BE BLUSTERY SUNDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH  
LIKELY. 01Z/25 NBM INDICATES 24-HOUR MAX WIND GUST PROBS  
EXCEEDING 40 MPH OF AT LEAST 30-60% WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY,  
CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES, GREATEST AT  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 40S AND 50S  
FOR MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ABOVE 75 DEGREES LIKELY (80% CHANCE).  
 
- LATEST FAVORED LOCATIONS TO SEE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  
(15-25% CHANCE) TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE NORTH AND  
WEST OF I-90.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY  
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND  
70S. TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS  
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING 40 TO 60 PERCENT  
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND  
A FEW (15-25% CHANCE) THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF  
ALBANY AT THIS FORECAST TIME.  
 
FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, PROBABILITIES FROM  
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) 4.2 DATA HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY REACHING ABOVE 75 DEGREES BEING GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT.  
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT FOR  
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO  
RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST  
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING LOW CHANCES (15-30 PERCENT) OF RAIN  
SHOWERS TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 26/00Z. THERE ARE  
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF KALB AND WEST OF KPSF THAT  
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NEXT ONE TO THREE HOURS, BUT NO  
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER 26/00Z, INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS RETURN  
BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR  
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR  
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGH THIS  
MORNING. WINDS TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND  
10 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING CALM AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...KL  
NEAR TERM...KL  
SHORT TERM...KL  
LONG TERM...WEBB  
AVIATION...WEBB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page