928  
FXUS61 KALY 062335  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
735 PM EDT THU MAY 6 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND  
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS AND SOME SCATTERED TO AREAS OF  
FROST. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A SHOWER  
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
NORTHERN SARATOGA, SOUTHEAST WARREN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...  
   
UPDATE
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING  
FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. STILL, SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY  
THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT COOLING SLIGHTLY  
IN SOME AREAS. RAISED MIN TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE  
CAPITAL DISTRICT, SO CHANCES FOR FROST HAVE DECREASED. STILL,  
SOME PATCHY FROST REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH  
IMPACT ON VEGETATION LOCALLY. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT  
FOR THE SARATOGA AND LAKE GEORGE REGIONS.  
   
PREVIOUS [0347]
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST AND  
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
FALL CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS IN THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY/PA THAT WILL DRIFT OVER  
OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK THAT MAY SLOW THE  
FALLING OF THE TEMPERATURES.  
 
MOST AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WITH MID 30S JUST NORTH OF THE  
CAPITAL REGION, WHERE THE FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. IT  
WILL BE CLOSE IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE  
SOME POCKETS/PATCHES OF LIGHT FROST ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES  
MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S BRIEFLY ENOUGH OR BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO  
PREVENT AREAS OR WIDESPREAD FROST. AROUND 30 TO LOWER 30S  
NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION AS UPPER ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE  
MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY TRACKS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SE OF CAPE  
COD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TRAILING UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF THE  
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A ZONE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE  
AND UPPER DYNAMICS SETS UP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
RAIN BEGINS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND  
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND  
EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE  
RAIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING WESTERN  
NEW ENGLAND AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION  
SPREADS EAST, SOME SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS, PROBABLY ABOVE 2000 FEET, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE  
PRECIPITATION IS INTENSE ENOUGH TO COOL THE COLUMN AIDING IN  
SUPPORTING THE MIX OF SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE SURFACE.  
 
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY, COLD RAIN WILL AFFECT  
MOST OF THE REGION BUT AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE AWAY AND LOW LEVEL  
FORCING WEAKENS, COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY. STILL, CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOL. DRYING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORT  
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER ENERGY TRACKS  
THROUGH OUR REGION.  
 
BY SUNDAY, THE TRAILING UPPER ENERGY NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK SOUTH WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE  
TRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY  
THAT APPROACHES OUR REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH  
SUNDAY AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BEGIN IN THE SCHOHARIE  
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGHS FRIDAY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER  
AROUND 60 TO MID 60S WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 50S NORTHERN AREAS.  
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S HIGHER  
TERRAIN. HIGHS SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL SUN IN THE MORNING AND  
THEN INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOWER 60S WITH 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DISAGREE ON  
THE TRACK, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE  
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER SE CANADA. HOWEVER,  
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND  
CMC COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. MOST SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SHOWING RAIN  
ENCOMPASSING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, SO WILL MENTION  
LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD WITH CHANCE POPS TO  
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
ON MONDAY THE CYCLONE WILL EXIT INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY OFF  
THE COAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE W/NW FLOW REGIME ACROSS OUR REGION,  
WHILE THE UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER.  
EXACT TIMING OF RAIN ENDING IN QUESTION, SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS  
AT THIS TIME. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ANTICIPATED WITH SOME  
POSSIBLE LINGERING RAIN OR SHOWERS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW  
NORMAL AGAIN. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER  
CHILLY AIR MASS SETTLES IN A NW FLOW REGIME (850 MB TEMPERATURE  
ANOMALIES OF -1 TO -2 STDEV).  
 
TUESDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE BREEZY AND COOL CONDITIONS, AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE  
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS  
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ALBANY, BUT WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR  
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE.  
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE CHILLY  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT, IT IS UNCERTAIN  
WHETHER FROST WILL DEVELOP DUE TO AN EXPECTED PERSISTENT BREEZE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,  
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUNSHINE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY, BUT STILL BELOW  
NORMAL. A BETTER CHANCE OF FROST MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO  
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN  
AREAS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY,  
WITH A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH  
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS WHICH WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF  
PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE  
TONIGHT, WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. STILL, CIG  
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING  
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-8 KT ON FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND  
TONIGHT WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS AND SOME SCATTERED TO AREAS OF  
FROST. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH A SHOWER  
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE GEORGE IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME  
FROST AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO DROP  
TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEN RISE ABOVE 60 PERCENT  
FRIDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL BE 50 TO 70 PERCENT WITH CHANCES  
FOR RAIN SATURDAY.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS  
WILL BE SOUTHEAST 10 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND VARIABLE FRIDAY  
NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AFTER THE PERSISTENT AND BENEFICIAL  
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
SATURDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE  
WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON THE ALBANY HSA WATERWAYS.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES,  
INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE  
ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION  
SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-  
084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...NAS  
HYDROLOGY...NAS  
 
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