391
FXUS61 KALY 141157
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDING OFF LAKE ONTARIO IMPACTS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD WITH
WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHIFTS
THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE SETTLING SOUTH OF
THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS.
WHILE WE REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TOMORROW NIGHT, WE FINALLY TREND MILDER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDS INTO
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH TODAY.
FALLING SNOW AND BREEZY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30MPH WILL LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
HAMILTON COUNTY.
- BREEZY AND CHILLY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 - 35MPH.
WINDS TURN STRONGER THIS EVENING AND THERE IS A 30 - 60%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 40MPH IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND BERKSHIRES.
AS OF 645AM EST, AS WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID- LEVELS CONTINUE
TO SUBTLY VEER TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST, OUR LAKE EFFECT BAND IN
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS CONTINUES PRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE MOST ORGANIZED PART OF THE BAND
REMAINS UPSTREAM IN THE TUG HILL BUT THE EASTERN EDGE IS
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER MAINLY SOUTH OF OLD FORGE. THE
TYX RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITIES RANGING 25 - 28 DBZ SO MODERATE
SNOW IS LIKELY FALLING. OTHERWISE, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS AS SEEN IN WEB CAMERAS DESPITE WEAK
REFLECTIVITIES ON THE ENX RADAR.
THE SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL CONTINUE GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY
AROUND THE COLD BROOK AREA BY MID-MORNING WITH FRAGMENTS
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDING DOWN THE LONG FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO, THE BAND WILL
REMAIN ORGANIZED BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES REMAIN UPSTREAM IN THE TUG HILL. MAINLY EXPECTING
RATES NEAR OR UNDER 0.5" THROUGH THIS MORNING IN OUR AREA BUT
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH AND THE LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOW
CHARACTER, BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY. FOR THE REST OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, IT
WILL BE CHILLY AND BREEZY TODAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL NOT RISE MUCH ABOVE
THIS MORNING'S LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S BEFORE COOLING
FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT STILL EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35MPH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH THESE WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION AS WINDS STREAM OFF THE GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN OUR LAKE
EFFECT BAND BETWEEN 18 AND 00 UTC REACHING UP TO 0.5 - 1 INCH
WITH PER THE HREF. THE HRRR AND RAP ARE IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
THAT ONCE THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION DEVELOPS, THE BAND SHOULD
IMPRESSIVELY EXTEND WELL EAST THROUGH HAMILTON AND EVEN
NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WE EXTENDED OUR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR
WITH A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF VERY LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATING (SLRS 25:1) SHOULD THE LAKE BAND EXTEND AS FAR EAST
AS THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST. ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING 3 - 6 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTY DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHERN
FULTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
EVENING (00 TO 06 UTC), WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL RAPIDLY TRACK THROUGH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. WINDS BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 - 40MPH. THE
BAND WILL NOT HAVE A LONG RESIDENCE TIME IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY SO
ONLY EXPECTING UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT/FLUFFY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE BAND QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE CATSKILLS. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS, EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING THE
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS EVENING PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS IN BENNINGTON COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SHIFTS THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES. BREEZY WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW CAN LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- REMAINING CHILLY AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A 60 - 90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
FALL BELOW 15 DEGREES IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD TO
POUGHKEEPSIE.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF OUR TROUGH AXIS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 - 40MPH (STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS) BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN GREENS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS OUR LAKE
EFFECT BAND SINKS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE CATSKILLS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
SOME CLEARING TOWARDS SUNRISE IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY. ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY WINDS
RANGING 20 - 25MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER TONIGHT AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS ALSO WIND DOWN BY SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS COLD AND BREEZY, ALBEIT NOT AS BREEZY AS
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 - 30MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE 20S WITH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS REMAINING IN THE
TEENS. BETWEEN THE WINDS AND CHILLY AIR MASS, IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO FAVOR
INCREASED SUN WITH PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
MORNING BEFORE SKIES TURN CLOUDIER AS WE HIT OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
REMAIN TO OUR WEST IN THE CATSKILLS BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS CAN
EXTEND INTO THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK/SCHOHARIE VALLEY. BY THIS
EVENING, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL SEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BACK NORTHWARD
RETURNING TO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING. ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL ONE INCH OF
SNOW. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WINDS FINALLY TURN LIGHTER AND
SKIES TURN PARTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS RETURN. THE WEAKER WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL
SUPPORT EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND BROAD TROUGHING FROM WESTERN NY
TRACKS EASTWARD. SKIES BECOME CLOUDY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS (ALBEIT STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) RISING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY, AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
TEENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW (50-70%
CHANCE) TO THE REGION SAT PM INTO SUN MORNING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RISE OVER THE REGION ON FR.
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN THE MORNING. A SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES, AS TEMPS REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MID JAN WITH
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS.
THE H500 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS DOWN STREAM FRI NIGHT, AS LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. CLOUDS INCREASE, THICKEN AND LOWER WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY CORRIDOR
AND LAKE GEORGE, AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED BASED ON THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS A WEAK WAVE AND
A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT PM INTO EARLY SUN
MORNING. SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF WET SNOW AMOUNTING TO A FEW INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WE ARE MONITORING IF MODERATE
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS. LATEST NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW IN THE 20-30% RANGE FOR 4" OR MORE BY 12Z/SUN
IN 24 HOURS. MILD AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S WITH COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING.
SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MEDIUM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING OFF THE EAST COAST, AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CONUS. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE TO A WAVE NEAR
OR OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND MAY SPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WE KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40% CHANCE RANGE FOR SNOW. TEMPS TREND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL ON SUN AND BY MON MAX TEMPS MAY BE 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW
NORMAL. CPC'S DAY 8 TO 14 TEMP AND PCPN OUTLOOK FOR THE 4TH WEEK OF
JAN IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL PCPN FOR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THRU 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SFC TROUGH AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
AROUND FROM KALB/KPSF NORTHWARD. WE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT KGFL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS 21Z/TUE TO 03Z/WED. OTHERWISE,
CIGS WILL BE SCT-BKN035-060 KFT AGL THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD 3.5-5 KFT AGL. KPSF MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD LOW VFR IS FORECASTED WITH STRATOCUMULUS.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10-16 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KT AT KALB/KPSF IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST AFTER 00Z/WED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT BUT VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 20-
25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ033.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SPECIALE
NEAR TERM...SPECIALE
SHORT TERM...SPECIALE
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
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