164
FXUS61 KALY 110626
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
226 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY.
2. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
3. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, BERKSHIRES,
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION, AS MIXING DEEPENS, RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH, AS
WELL AS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NW CT. DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL,
FINE FUELS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FIRE SPREAD GIVEN THE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR ELEVATED RISK
OF FIRE SPREAD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, RH VALUES WILL BE
HIGHER, AND ALSO MORE RAINFALL OCCURRED MITIGATING FINE FUELS
SOMEWHAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY CAPITAL REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD END BY SUNSET,
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL THEN ALLOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, AND ALLOW THE FRONT TO OCCASIONALLY OSCILLATE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT, WITH BEST CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL H500 WINDS 40-50 KT AND
INCREASING MU CAPES. 01Z/SAT NBM PROBS FOR SB CAPE >1000 J/KG
ARE RELATIVELY LOW, AT 10-20% WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER SIMILAR PROBS FOR SB CAPES >500 J/KG ARE
30-50% TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND 40-60% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP, AND HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE PREVAILS, SOME AREAS COULD REACH THE 70S AND EVEN 80S,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD 70S/80S OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT POTENTIALLY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. 01Z/SAT NBM PROBS FOR 24-HOUR MAX TEMPS >75 F ARE 60-90%
FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT ON WED, SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF MOST
WIDESPREAD WARMTH OCCURRING ON THIS DAY. IN FACT, SIMILAR PROBS
WED FOR MAX TEMPS >80 F ARE 40-80% ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY (GREATEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY) AND 20-50% WITHIN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/SUN...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST ALL OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LAST BIT OF SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. KPSF
WILL SEE CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE UPSLOPING. THIS
IS SHOWN IN A TEMPO BECAUSE IT WILL BE BRIEF AND MAINLY LIGHT UNTIL
ABOUT 08Z BEFORE SUNRISE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MIX OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING OCCURRING FIRST AT KPOU AROUND 18Z AND
AT KGFL AND KALB LATER IN THE EVENING AROUND SUNSET. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AT KPSF WILL LIKELY HANG ON A BIT
LATER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD BE FEW. WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST AT 10-15 KT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20-30 KT. WINDS TAPER OFF UNDER 10 KT AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/17
AVIATION...53
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