575
FXUS61 KALY 030528
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DELAYED ONSET OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING INTO THE REGION BY 1-2
HOURS, WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL 10-11 PM BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND HRRR. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED TO THE
FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING ALL POSSIBLE.
3) GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 823 PM...STABLE LAYER REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING, WITH A MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SUBSTANTIAL CAPE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. SOLID LINE OF SEVERE STORMS MOVING SE ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES, WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN
NY. STILL, THE STORMS' FORWARD MOMENTUM COULD STILL RESULT IN A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE W. MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE CATSKILLS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY. LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 LATER ON. EVEN
THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW, STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND DOWNPOURS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 250 PM...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
COSED UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY, WITH A CLOSER UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, AN UPPER
IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
RADAR ALREADY SHOWS STORMS FIRING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH
THIS FEATURE, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE TRACKING INTO OUR AREA.
A N/S ORIENTED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NY,
SEPARATING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM A MUCH COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HOW FAR EAST THIS FRONT IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THIS
EVENING WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXTEND. OUTFLOW FROM THE AM CONVECTION SEEMS TO HAVE REINFORCED
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY/PUSHED IT BACK WEST DOWN TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER, CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING AND INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO
BUILD WEST OF OUR MOHAWK VALLEY AND VERY CLOSE TO OUR ADKS. IF
THE WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY ARE ABLE TO PUSH CLOSER/INTO THE
ADKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, THIS WOULD INCREASE THE SEVERE
THREAT FOR THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST, GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EML PLUME TO ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH SBCAPE LOOKS
TO BE VERY LIMITED. GIVEN EXPECTED SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT,
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXTEND. SPC HAS LEFT THEIR D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
ACROSS OUR REGION UNCHANGED, WITH THE MARGINAL RISK MAINLY JUST
FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE AND
MESOANALYSIS TRENDS, WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS
FAR EAST AS THE HUDSON VALLEY OR EVEN TACONICS THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT LARGE HAIL ALSO VERY MUCH
REMAINS ON THE TABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES (LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS), AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IN WESTERN HERKIMER
COUNTY, THERE LOOKS TO BE MORE HELICITY (>200 M2S2 0-1 KM
LAYER), SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW.
OTHER THREAT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH THE MCS WILL BE FOR HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION TO
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN
CATSKILLS ALONG OUR BORDER WITH BGM, BUT OPTED NOT TO AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN THIS MORNING LEADING TO MORE PRIMED SOILS REMAINED MAINLY WEST
US. OUR CWA ONLY SAW 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES PER THE NYS MESONET, AND THE
AREAS THAT DID SEE RAIN (MAINLY CATSKILLS) ALSO MISSED SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO 1.7 - 1.9" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >12 KFT.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MCS. MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE WHERE MORE BACKBUILDING AND
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE. WHERE TRAINING OCCURS, ISOLATED 2-3" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR OUR REGION, SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED TO MAYBE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, BUT JUST NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
TIMING OF THIS MCS HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST, SO IT SHOULD LARGELY BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY OR AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY. THE WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE EXPECTED TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-90. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AT 35-45
KT, SO ON PAPER THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO HELP REINFORCE
A CAPPING INVERSION, AND ALL OF THIS MAY MAKE IT VERY HARD FOR
STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SO, SEVERE
THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON STORMS BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE
MITIGATING FACTORS. SPC JUST HAS A GENERAL THUNDER RISK FOR TOMORROW
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY VALLEY
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH/ULL
OVER THE GOLF OF MAINE COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY (SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
THE ULL), ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
AND WILL BE EXITING SHORTLY. THERE HAD BEEN SOME THUNDER EARLIER
NEAR KPOU, BUT NO THUNDER REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA AND THE
RAINFALL IS GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE, SO WON'T INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. RAIN HAS BASICALLY ENDED FOR
KALB/KGFL, BUT THE STEADIEST SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO FOR KPSF AND KPOU. FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN MVFR, WITH SOME IFR OCCURRING DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MOST SITES WILL SEE CONTINUED PERIODS OF
LOWER CEILINGS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND 800-1000 FT THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z-14Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL PASSING SHOWERS
AROUND FOR LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 08Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A VCSH
THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR MOST SITES, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MORE
ISOLATED ONCE THE CURRENT RAINFALL EXITS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
AFTERWARD, THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN CEILINGS RISING TO AROUND 1500-2500 FT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A
A RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST FOR KPSF. CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCT-BKN
AROUND 3500-4000 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AT ALL SITES AROUND 5-10 KTS.
ON THURSDAY EVENING, MOST SITES WILL SEE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES TO
START THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY KGFL AND KPSF, WHERE FOG
WILL FORM AS EARLY AS 04Z-06Z. WITHIN MIST/FOG, IFR VISIBILITY
CAN BE EXPECTED. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THIS TO FORM FOR KALB/KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35/07
AVIATION...27
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