793  
FXUS61 KALY 070130  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
930 PM EDT MON APR 6 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MILD AND DRY SPRING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER  
RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY FEATURES A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BRINGS IN RAIN  
SHOWERS WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN,  
A POTENT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY USHERS IN AN AREA OF RAIN  
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EDT, PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO INCREASE  
FROM THE WEST, ALTHOUGH REMAIN THIN ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS  
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE SW ADIRONDACKS. ELSEWHERE, ENOUGH MIXING WITH SOME WIND HAS  
KEPT TEMPS ELEVATED, MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
00Z/ALY SOUNDING REVEALED A CLASSIC WELL MIXED "PRE-LEAFOUT"  
SOUNDING (DRY ADIABATIC TO NEARLY H745), ACCOUNTING FOR THE  
OVERACHIEVING MAX TEMPS AND EXTREMELY LOW RH'S LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN 5  
AND 7 PM.  
 
OVERNIGHT, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME WARM ADVECTION ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
REGION, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE  
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WAVE  
PASSES DOWNSTREAM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND  
DEPENDING ON THE THICKNESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS, EXPECT MOST LOW  
TEMPS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40, EXCEPT FOR SOME 20S ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, ESPECIALLY SHOULD SOME  
CLEARING OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY  
NORTH TUESDAY BUT WITH INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT  
NORTHWEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS THEY  
COULD. STILL, STRONG APRIL SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES GET TO  
THE 60S WITH 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
STRONGER UPPER ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION AND LOW LEVEL  
FORCING INCREASES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG  
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST. RAIN  
WILL SPREAD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME  
MIXING OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND  
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. RAIN EXITS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND COLD ADVECTION IS  
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG, THEREFORE POST FRONTAL WINDS  
SHOULD NOT BE VERY STRONG. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S WITH NEAR  
60 SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 50 HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE STRENGTHENS INTO A TIGHT CLOSED LOW THAT  
DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF  
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET  
ENERGY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINNING LATER  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. THEN,  
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP COLD ADVECTION, SOME LINE OR  
BAND OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MIX OF RAIN AND  
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY  
IN THE 50S BUT 40S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND/SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG CYCLONIC  
FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAINDROPS/GRAUPEL AT TIMES ON THE VALLEY  
FLOOR DURING PEAK HEATING. SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE  
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
OF SOUTHERN VT, WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED COATINGS EVEN DOWN TO  
THE VALLEY FLOOR. OTHERWISE, STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE  
OF THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS  
REACHING 35-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL  
REGION AND BERKSHIRES. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGHS  
FRIDAY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND 40S FOR MOST VALLEY  
AREAS, ALTHOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST  
IF A FEW BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY IN THE  
20S/30S, AND HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING THE 50S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS,  
AND 40S ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY REGARDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL  
STORM SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET. HAVE SIDED  
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY,  
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF  
AN EVEN SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE  
50S TO AROUND 60 IN VALLEY AREAS, 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH  
COULD BE WARMER IF PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE  
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN  
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH  
AN INCREASE AND LOWERING IN CLOUDS. THE LOWEST BKN-OVC CIGS WILL  
REACH ARE 7-9 KFT. AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TUESDAY MORNING,  
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK TO FEW-SCT COVERAGE.  
 
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD APPROACH AFTER 22Z/TUE, MAINLY  
AT KPOU.  
 
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS  
15-20 KT THROUGH 01Z/TUE BEFORE DECREASING TO 3-6 KT OVERNIGHT.  
WIND WILL THEN BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT  
TUESDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT AT KALB AND  
KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.  
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.  
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.  
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.  
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
RH VALUES DROPPING TO 20-30 PERCENT AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS  
POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NW CT...  
 
SUNNY AND MILD SPRING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER  
RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY FEATURES A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BRINGS IN RAIN  
SHOWERS WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN,  
A POTENT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY USHERS IN AN AREA OF RAIN  
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL RISE TO ABOVE 60 PERCENT, THEN DROP TO 20  
TO 35 PERCENT TUESDAY. RH VALUES RISE AGAIN TO GREATER THAN 60  
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. RAIN ENDS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT BUT RH VALUES REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, AROUND 55 TO 70  
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT WILL  
BE WEST TO NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO  
20 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE  
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTH AT LESS THAN 15  
MPH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO RIVER FLOODING ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH OUR NEXT  
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT  
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK RATHER LOW BETWEEN 0.10 AND  
0.20" (HIGHEST ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  
 
A MORE IMPRESSIVE YET FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PRODUCING AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50" OF  
RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RECENT DRY  
STRETCH, RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING  
CONCERNS WITH JUST IN BANK RISES EXPECTED.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...NAS  
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS  
SHORT TERM...NAS  
LONG TERM...KL  
AVIATION...KL/RATHBUN  
FIRE WEATHER...KL/NAS  
HYDROLOGY...NAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab VT Page
The Nexlab MA Page
The Nexlab CT Page Main Text Page