428  
FXUS61 KALY 181052  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
652 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS  
THE REGION TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND SEASONABLE  
CONDITIONS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TURN MILDER AND HUMID AS  
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM EDT...NOT MUCH CHANGE AS WARM FRONT WITH  
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS RESULTING IN BANDS OF SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE BEST FORCING AND LOWER CPD/S WILL BE  
THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF  
ALBANY. THEN AS THE DAYLIGHT HOURS PROGRESS, LOW LEVEL  
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. AS  
UPSTREAM STORM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,  
UPSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE AND WEAK PV IMPULSES MAY TOUCH OFF  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AS  
SUGGESTED BY THE HREF. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH  
THE NAM APPEARING TOO COOL THAN THOSE VALUES OFFERED BY THE GFS  
AND ECMWF MOS SO WE WILL FAVOR THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE  
ENVELOPE.  
 
TONIGHT, WE BECOME FURTHER ENTRENCHED WITH THE WARM SECTOR.  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NO CHANGE TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH THE  
ABUNDANCE OF WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY. FURTHERMORE, LOW LEVEL  
PROFILES SEEN WITHIN THE MODELS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST LOTS OF  
CLOUDS WITH EITHER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE  
AS SHEAR AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL REMAIN HIGH AND  
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE DRY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
...FLOOD WATCH MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90  
BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...  
 
AS HAS BEEN WELL DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, CUT OFF UPPER  
LOW NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG  
THE I95 CORRIDOR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ANTECEDENT MOIST  
CONDITIONS AND HIGH WATER LEVELS IN THE WATCH AREA, ALONG WITH  
CLOSE COORDINATION FROM NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WERE OUR REASONS  
FOR THE WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS  
WARRANT WITH LATEST FORECASTS.  
 
A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST KEEPING OUR  
WEATHER MAINLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS. WHILE FORCING REMAINS  
WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE  
UPSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE MAY APPROACH NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY  
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER POPS.  
EVENTUALLY THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL RESULT WITH AN  
INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WHILE A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS  
POSSIBLE, WE WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH HIGHS  
CLIMBING TOWARD 70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY 60S  
ELSEWHERE. OF MORE NOTICEABLE ELEMENTS WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS  
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY BY  
SUNSET.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT  
PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. GEFS ANOMALIES OF PWATS OF 3-4  
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, 850 MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES  
CLOSE TO 6 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND LOW LEVEL JET MAGNITUDES  
APPROACHING 4 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PER PROFILES ARE  
QUITE HIGH WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET ALONG WITH  
MBE VELOCITIES QUITE LOW DEPICTING TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING  
ACTIVITY. THS AXIS OF MOISTURE PER THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS EXPECTED  
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.  
THEN A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT APPROACHES BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING  
RIVER OF MOISTURE AND THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF  
OHIO. SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS/WX THROUGH THE DAY AS WE  
WATCH FOR INCREASING WATER LEVELS AND STREAMS. HIGHS GENERALLY  
INTO THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WE START THE PERIOD WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DRY SLOT NOSING INTO OUR REGION. THIS  
MEANS THAT THE MAJORITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EXITING TO OUR  
EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH A LIKELY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION  
SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS  
THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME. THERE ARE  
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT  
TRACKS EASTWARD FIGHTING AGAINST A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED  
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS HAS A QUICKER AND DRIER  
SOLUTION WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE TRACK AND REMAINS  
FAIRLY WET THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL  
ALSO BE PERSISTENT AS LONG AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE UPPER TROUGH.  
 
THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY WET  
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR  
REGION. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE  
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS AROUND THE MONDAY EVENING TO  
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS ALSO DISPARITIES IN THE PIECES OF  
ENERGY THAT RIDE ALONG THE FRONT, SPARKING OFF SHOWERS AND  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS AN ALREADY SATURATED AREA THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION BY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES. PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE  
NORMAL DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING AS A WARM  
FRONT AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WE BECOME MORE  
FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR  
RANGE BY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE  
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DRIZZLE.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT AT  
KGFL, KALB AND KPSF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL  
BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS  
INCREASE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.  
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.  
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH TODAY...  
 
WE WILL HEAD INTO A WETTER AND MORE HUMID PATTERN LATE THIS  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS  
MORNING, AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT  
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE  
STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE, BUT MINIMUM  
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.  
FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER AND MORE HUMID WITH RH VALUES ONLY FALLING  
INTO THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE.  
 
A STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND BRING PERIODS OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THE ONLY FLOOD WARNING STILL IN EFFECT IS THE SCHROON RIVER AT  
RIVERBANK, WHERE THE STAGE SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE SHORTLY.  
 
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS, LAKE  
GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IN  
THESE AREAS, WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE SNOWMELT OCCURRING PER THE  
NOHRSC ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PREVIOUS RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT  
HAVE RESULT IN NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.  
LATEST MMEFS SUGGEST MANY POINTS ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL  
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AGAIN AND PER CLOSE COORDINATION, WE WILL  
ISSUE ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED  
LATER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS AND COORDINATION. WPC EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL OUTLOOK REMAINS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE REGION.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR  
VTZ013>015.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BGM  
NEAR TERM...BGM  
SHORT TERM...BGM  
LONG TERM...JLV  
AVIATION...JLV  
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/THOMPSON  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/THOMPSON  
 
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