360
FXUS61 KALY 280544
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWERING DEW POINTS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW. ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS TOMORROW. AN SPS FOR AN
ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT,
CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHERN VT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RH, AND DRY FUELS WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD TUESDAY MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-90.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THEN, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE
THE RAINFALL, LIMITED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOW 70S IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. WITH
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED, RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 25-35% REGION WIDE. S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
MPH BY MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-90, AND TO 15-20 MPH SOUTH OF I-90, EXCEPT IN THE CATSKILLS
WHERE 20-25 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. STATE PARTNERS HAVE
CONFIRMED DRY TO VERY DRY FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. GIVEN THE ABOVE,
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS, UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, CATSKILLS, AND
SOUTHERN VT. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION TO PUT THE SOUTHERN
ADKS IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH, BUT CONFIDENCE WASN'T QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH GIVEN THAT WINDS MAY ACTUALLY START TO DROP OFF THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO OUR
NORTH. MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE THERE BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY BRINGING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 4-5 PM.
MOST OF THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY FIRE WEATHER ZONE AND WESTERN
CT/MA WERE LEFT OUT OF THE SPS SINCE WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTER. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND AND THOSE AREAS BEING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER ALONG WITH LEAF-OUT WILL LIKELY ALSO HELP TO
REDUCE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS OF 2:40 PM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS MOST AREAS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY CAL WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE ANY AREAS EXPECTED TO HIT
FREEZING TONIGHT, WE DID GO COOLER THAN NBM BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TOMORROW, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SFC MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
AS A BROAD UPPER LOW WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY DROPS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. ONE NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
W/NW. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND THE BEST UPPER FORCING WELL TO
THE W/NW, A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST. A COUPLE SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL BE
DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED ULL WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE BASE OF THE ULL AND
PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN/PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1" POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN ZONES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN ANY HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT ALSO TRACKING ACROSS THE
REGION. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE ULL
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVERHEAD OR CLOSE-BY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON BENEATH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT, BUT NONE OF THESE DAYS LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT. BY
SUNDAY, THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST, BUT WHETHER OR NOT IT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OUR REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
LEAD TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS, STARTING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KALB, WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 15-20
KTS. BY 14Z, SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL
TERMINALS AS A BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS. GUSTS AT KALB AND KGFL WILL BE STRONGEST,
UP TO 20-25 KTS, WHILE KPOU AND KPSF WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 10-15
KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LOWER TO MID-LEVEL BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WELL TO THE WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS, KEEPING
CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS
SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET ON TUESDAY, LEAVING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CIGS THROUGH 06Z ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
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