568  
FXUS61 KALY 222015  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
415 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA  
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN  
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY  
WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY  
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD  
RAIN TOWARD THE AREA LATER SUNDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN  
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A COOL WESTERLY FLOW  
OF AIR TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS  
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF  
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE AIR IS COOL  
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE- ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES EAST  
OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE ARE STILL  
NEAR 60 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID  
40S TO MID 50S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE  
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE  
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY  
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THEIR FIRST FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
RETROGADING SOUTHWEST FROM HUDSON BAY. LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE  
TOO DRY FOR ANY RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE  
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF THE MONTH  
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE  
NORTH COUNTRY, WITH 50S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. WEAK RIDGING WILL  
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,  
CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH  
COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
A MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA LATER  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HEIGHT PATTERNS TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY AND A STRONG  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NEW YORK  
AND NEW ENGLAND WILL END UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONFLUENCE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, AND  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE FROM  
THE MIDWEST. A STRONG BAND OF LOWER-TO-MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS  
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA, AND THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE OVERUN  
BY A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY JET. THIS FLOW  
WILL TAP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE AN EXPANDING AREA  
OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING  
INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA, LOCKING A CHILLY AIRMASS IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR FROM THE  
SOUTH LATER MONDAY AS DRYER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN ALOFT, BUT  
BEFORE THAT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SEVERAL  
HOURS OF A STEADY MODERATE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING  
FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE IN THE  
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL  
BRING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MID WEEK.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE  
DELMARVA REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE  
WAVE, AS ATLANTIC AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TAPPED. PWAT  
ANOMALIES ON THE 12Z NAEFS ARE +1 TO +2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL.  
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF  
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET. EXPECT A SOAKING RAINFALL THAT WILL  
BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY.  
 
THE H500 CIRCULATION CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN PA AND NJ ON THE  
LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES, HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS  
DRIVES THE CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE COAST.  
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY TUE NIGH AS A DRY  
SLOT APPROACHES THE REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS, AND  
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO  
LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND 40-45F IN THE VALLEYS.  
 
MIDWEEK, THE REGION WILL HAVE TO ENDURE PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT  
SHOWERS WITH THE STACKED LOW EITHER OVER THE REGION OR JUST TO  
THE EAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SHOWERS TAPER LATE WED WITH A  
PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER. FOR NOW, KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME WEST SNOW FLAKES WED NIGHT FOR  
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FT (SOUTHERN GREENS OR SOUTHERN DACKS). IT  
WILL BE BRISK AND SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S  
FOR MAX TEMPS OVER THE MTNS, AND 50S OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN.  
 
THU-FRI...ANOTHER COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH  
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY THU. THE  
NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE  
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTS POLEWARD FROM THE TN VALLEY AND  
SOUTHEAST. A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EVOLVES WITH A DEEP TRANSPORT  
OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR FROM THE GULF BASED ON THE LATEST  
NAEFS. WE INCREASED THE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE LATE THU FOR RAIN  
MOVING IN. THE SECONDARY OR COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL. IT WILL ALSO BE POTENTIALLY WINDY WITH THE  
STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LLJ. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR  
FOR ANY HYDRO CONCERNS, AS THIS WILL BE THE SECOND SIGNIFICANT  
RAIN MAKER IN LESS THAN 5 DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR  
LATE OCT, BUT IT WILL BE DANK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. BKN-OVC  
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH CIG HEIGHTS AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL. THE CLOUDS SHOULD  
TEND TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, AS A SMALL/WEAK AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN,  
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 3500-5000 FT AGL.  
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS, MAINLY AT KPSF,  
BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO MENTION FOR PREVAILING.  
 
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND  
7-10 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KT AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME  
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO AROUND 3-6 KT TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.  
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.  
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY  
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON  
SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS, BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  
DRY, BUT COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO 95 PERCENT TONIGHT, WILL DECREASE  
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE TO 85  
TO 95 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH  
SATURDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE  
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR  
WILL SLOWLY FALL.  
 
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND  
STREAMS EXPECTED.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING OBSERVED  
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE VISIT THE  
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR  
WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MSE  
NEAR TERM...MSE  
SHORT TERM...MSE  
LONG TERM...WASULA  
AVIATION...JPV  
FIRE WEATHER...MSE/MAIN  
HYDROLOGY...MAIN/WASULA  
 
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