529
FXUS61 KALY 160620
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
220 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS TODAY AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL RISK
FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS LOW, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
2) THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY, DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH AND TIMING
IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW, WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS, WITH
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH. A WEAK COOL FRONT STARTS TO
APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH/WEST
OF ALBANY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT, IT WILL TURN BREEZY ON SUN, WITH GUSTS OF
25 MPH DEVELOPING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL WARM,
SO HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 80S IN MUCH OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY, AND MID 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEAT BUILDS MON AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE, AS
UPPER RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION. NAEFS INDICATING 850 MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV ON MON AND +2 TO +3 STDEV
ON TUE. SO HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE ANTICIPATED MON AND UPPER
80S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS TUE (LOWER 90S SOUTH OF ALBANY). WENT
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS,
DUE TO NBM BEING AMONG THE WARMEST GUIDANCE EVEN COMPARED TO
HIGH-END OF ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTIONS. WITH DECENT MIXING,
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON
TUE SO PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(< 95F). ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT,
ALTHOUGH HIGHS COULD REACH THE UPPER 80S NEAR ALBANY, WITH LOWER
90S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE THREAT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEGINS ON TUE, AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORM DURING DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE POTENTIALLY AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KT OR LESS.
THERE IS A BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON WED ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WITH STRONGER FORCING AND POTENTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY/SHEAR,
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING THOUGH, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A VARIETY OF FLYING CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. FOR KGFL AND KPSF, PATCHY FOG CONTINUES
TO BRING MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 11-13Z. FOR KALB AND
KPOU, WHILE WE INITIALLY START THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS, VICINITY FOG CAN DEVELOP BETWEEN 8-9Z THROUGH 12Z
WITH 6 MILES IN VISIBILITY. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BETWEEN
12-13Z FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS THROUGH 17/00Z. WINDS DECREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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