558
FXUS61 KALY 080636
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
236 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN EXPANSION OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC TROUGH PASSAGE.
SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE/GLENS FALLS AND NORTHERN
SARATOGA REGION BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE.
SKYCOVER AND POPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM FROM THE BASELINE NBM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA
REGION, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S, IMPACTING SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION.
2)LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR AGAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S
FOR WASHINGTON, NORTHERN SARATOGA, AND SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTIES
BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LATE TONIGHT THRU THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, BUT
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SKIES CLEARED AND THE WINDS WENT LIGHT TO CALM FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING, AS NYS MESONET SITES INDICATE
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 29F TO 35F RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN
SARATOGA, WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEAST WARREN COUNTIES WITH THE KGFL
ASOS AT LEAST 32F. THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7 AM. THE
AREAS OF FROST LIKELY WILL IMPACT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION LEFT
OUTDOORS. CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST CT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING, WHERE
THE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RISE AFTER
SUNRISE ENDING THE THREAT OF FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW FOR RADIATIVE COOLING (MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES) WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS) AND TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 32-36F RANGE MAY OCCUR ONCE AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE-GLENS FALLS AREA/NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION TONIGHT BEFORE
CLOUDS ARRIVE. THE GROWING SEASON STARTED ON MAY 1ST FOR THESE
AREAS. THE COVERAGE AREA MAY BE SLIGHTLY SMALLER AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS QUICKER. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THEN ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER,
OUTDOOR VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A RATHER ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SAT WITH A MEAN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A SFC TROUGH WILL YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO FORM.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED, BUT WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60F IN THE VALLEYS, AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BREEZY W/NW WINDS CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS EARLY ON, BUT CLOUDS
QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SAT.
THE POPS ARE IN THE 60-95% RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN DACKS. IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY.
THE RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY, BUT NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A DAMP AND CHILLY DAY WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH A
QUARTER TO A HALF SOUTH AND EAST.
THE SHOWERS END EARLY SAT NIGHT, BUT THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT
WILL BE ARRIVING FOR MOTHERS DAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER A COOL NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPS MAY RISE
CLOSER TO NORMAL MAY READINGS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F IN THE
VALLEYS AND 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BOUNDARY MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE EAST
COAST WITH A WAVE TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUN
NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SOME
VARIABILITY CONTINUES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. A DRIER TREND IS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WITH STILL COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS, THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE MID
WEEK ONWARD DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. OVERALL, A WET AND UNSETTLED SPRING OR MAY
PATTERN, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE TO CAUSE
ANY FLOODING OR HYDRO ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY OVERHEAD. SOME HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED AS A RESULT, BUT ONLY AROUND POU WHO IS CURRENTLY
REPORTING -RA WITH VFR CEILINGS AND UNOBSTRUCTED VISIBILITY.
ONCE THIS PATCH OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY DEVELOPING AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. ADDITIONAL HIGHLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES ALOFT, BUT THE ONLY
TERMINAL ANTICIPATED TO POTENTIALLY SEE CONDITIONS WORSEN PAST
THE VFR CATEGORY IS PSF WHERE AN MVFR CEILING COULD DEVELOP FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ONCE THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE PASSES,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AGAIN SUCH THAT VFR CONDITIONS
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT TO COMPLETELY CALM BUT WILL INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REACH ABOUT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DEEP MIXING ALLOW A DECREASING
TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT, UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-083-
084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12
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