290
FXUS61 KALY 200654
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS/WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
GUSTS 25-35 MPH COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE CHANNELED AREA OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION
INTO THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. TEMPS WERE ALSO
LOWERED CLOSER TO A MAV/MET BLEND LOWERING FROM THE NBM HIGH
BIAS THIS PM.
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
INCREASED SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS, GREATER
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
2) ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG NORTH AND EAST
OF THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
3) MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES FOR MON-MON
NIGHT, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. DEEPER MIXING TAPPING INTO MOMENTUM
2-3 KFT AGL /BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER/ BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS WERE BLENDED AND TRENDED UPWARD TOWARDS THE
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREFS
INDICATE MEAN SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR
NORTH AND EAST, BUT THE MEAN DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM LAYER) IS
WEAK 10-20 KT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE COMMON FROM NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL REGION,
BERKSHIRES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ADIRONDACK PARK. LAKE GEORGE
REGION, AND SOUTHERN VT. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER, AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS. SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS 35-45
MPH MAY OCCUR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS WILL RUN COOLER THAN
NORMAL AND WERE SHADED CLOSER TO A MAV/MET MOS BLEND WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAYBE A BIT MORE THAN SATURDAY...AND WE EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS,
BERKSHIRES, THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION, AND UPPER REACHES OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWARD
IF SOME OF THE CAMS ARE RIGHT. THE HREFS SHOW MEAN SBCAPES OF
AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 15-25 KT. NOT SURE THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE
TALL ENOUGH FOR ANY ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WITH THE
RESIDUAL COLD POOL, STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL (HALF INCH OR LESS) COULD OCCUR WITH
A FEW CELLS. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWS THE
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY IN THE LATE PM. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER (JUNE 21 AT 424 A.M. EDT) WITH 60S AND 70S
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MON-MON NIGHT, AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FGEN STRENGTHENS ESPECIALLY FROM
THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. THE LATEST NAEFS
INDICATES PWATS RISE 1-2 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.25-1.75"
RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH WITH HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER
TO I-84. WPC IS PROJECTING A 1-2" WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, BUT
TOTALS COULD DROP OFF QUICKLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION WHICH VARIES SOME ON THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE HERE WITH THE
H850-700 FGEN. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT,
SO WE CONTINUED A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON PM
INTO THE EVENING FROM SOUTHERN VT, THE CAPITAL REGION, NORTHERN
CATSKILLS SOUTHWARD.
THE 01Z/20 NBM 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >1" RAINFALL ENDING 12Z/8 AM
TUE ARE 55-85% FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY, GREATER CAPITAL & SARATOGA
REGIONS, SOUTHERN VT SOUTHWARD AND AND 40-54% NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN DACKS, AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. 24-HR PROBABILITIES
>2" OF RAINFALL ARE 40-50% SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY,
BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. THE RAINFALL MAY BE VERY BENEFICIAL IN
THESE AREAS WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS. MOST OF THE AREAS ARE IN D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) TO D1
(MODERATE DROUGHT) BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. AS LONG
AS THE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXCESSIVE, WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. PONDING OF WATER AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
COOLED AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE BY 10-15
DEGREES ON MON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
SOME 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD DECREASE
QUICKLY MON NIGHT/TUE EARLY MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER
RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...WHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ENSUED SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KALB/KPOU, CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED FOR
KGFL/KPSF WITH CIGS 6-8 KFT AGL AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT ENOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR THROUGH 9Z/SAT TO RESULT IN BKN
TO OVC CEILINGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL AT KALB, KGFL AND KPSF. KPOU
LIKELY REMAINS CLEAR UNTIL THE LAT MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CEILINGS 2-3 KFT AGL DEVELOPING AT KPSF
THROUGH 09Z/SAT AND PERSISTING UNTIL NEARLY NOON TODAY. THEN,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.
WE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF. OUR CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
LLWS WAS ADDED TO ALL THE TAF SITES PRIOR TO 11Z-12Z/SAT SINCE
THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 35-40
KT AND THE SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST AT 10 KT OR
LESS AT THE TAF SITES. WEST WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z-15Z/SAT AT 10-15 KT AND WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT. THE WINDS
DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...31/15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page