823
FXUS61 KALY 041042
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS INCREASED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY,
VALUES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE POSING AN INCREASED RISK
FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.
2) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY EVENTS WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
3) PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY THANKS TO A STALLED NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS STARTING TO FALL AND TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WILL STILL REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. DEWPOINTS REMAIN RATHER MUGGY WITH VALUES
STILL AROUND 70 F, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS
AND NW CT, WITH SOME VALUES IN THE 95 TO 100 RANGE. HAVE
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS, BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE IMPROVED COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL,
ANYONE SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD STAY HYDRATED AND
TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. WPC
HEAT RISK WILL STILL BE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT MOST OF THE REGION IS SEEING A BIG
IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE AGAIN, MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN LATER TODAY. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, OUR AREA
REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH
FAIRLY FAST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA FOR LATER THIS MORNING. THE BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THIS
AREA, WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
LOCATED, SO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE MOST PRONE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS TODAY. STILL, SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING
ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL OCCUR THANKS TO THE HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER IN PLACE.
CAMS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NY
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST FOR LATER TODAY,
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH INTO THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF IT MAY AVOID OUR AREA TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH. EVEN IF STORMS AREN'T SEVERE, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THREATS,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MANY PEOPLE WILL BE OUTDOORS FOR THE 4TH
OF JULY HOLIDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS,
SO ANYONE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION FOR ANY
WARNINGS OR STATEMENTS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LATER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THIS FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STEADIEST PRECIP WILL BE, BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST PWAT VALUES WILL
REACH CLOSE TO 2.00", WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS OVER A 50% PROBABILITY OF
SOUTHERN AREAS EXCEEDING AN INCH OF PRECIP AND SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTAL PRECIP MAY REACH 1" TO 3" FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT HAS DRY RECENTLY AND
MOST AREAS COULD USE SOME RAINFALL, BUT HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND
HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY STILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC NOW HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK, WITH
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) GETTING INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS, BUT A WET AND
COOLER MONDAY LOOKS MORE LIKELY, WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME LEFTOVER MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST OVER LAKE
ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS
MORNING, BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A STRAY
SHOWER, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY, COULD COME CLOSE TO
KALB FOR THE LATE MORNING, SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY NEAR KALB, KPSF AND
KPOU. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR LATE TODAY FOR THESE SITES
BASED ON THIS POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL UNCLEAR IF STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS OR NOT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN VFR
WITH SCT CIGS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
ANY STORMS WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, ALLOWING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FOR
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ059-060-064>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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