963  
FXUS61 KALY 201121  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MAINLY  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VALLEY  
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. BEHIND  
THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL BE COLD AND BRISK ON SUNDAY WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY, AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 635 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY MILD EARLY  
THIS MORNING, GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH  
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST BREEZE.  
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR UNTIL ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES. LATEST CAMS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NAM-NEST  
INDICATE A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE  
ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS IN  
THIS AREA, BUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED  
AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LATER  
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY  
EASTWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR INSTABILITY DEVELOPING  
DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH UP TO 100-200 J/KG  
OF CAPE POSSIBLE. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER EXPLICITLY IN THE  
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH A ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT  
ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE UPPER 50S  
TO LOWER 60S AGAIN, FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WHERE  
SOME SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TONIGHT, A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO  
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC  
REGION, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION.  
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST  
FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA,  
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH  
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE  
COOLING QUICKLY, SO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET,  
WILL SEE RAIN MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING. SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY, ALTHOUGH  
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN WELL WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW  
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY LIMITED TO CENTRAL  
NY. THE MAIN STORY ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS.  
WITH MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 MB EXPECTED, GUSTS AROUND 30-40  
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND THE  
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE  
40S FOR VALLEY AREAS AND 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY  
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE, BUT A SLIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE  
SHOULD PERSIST AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PASS BY  
WELL TO OUR SOUTH. AS THE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FROM A  
WESTERLY DIRECTION, SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE  
INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE PRECIP  
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT THOUGH DUE TO LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND  
WEAK/CONDITIONAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PERSIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS  
AND LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND HIGH ELEVATION  
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND  
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE MILDER DUE TO INCREASING  
CLOUDS, AND CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
GENERAL CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THIS  
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND  
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN SOME RAIN AND  
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 
THERE IS ONE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE IN SOURCES  
OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE  
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS UPPER ENERGY COULD  
EXPAND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO ALL AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE  
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS UPPER ENERGY COULD ALSO  
ENHANCE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS  
TUESDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VT.  
 
BY FRIDAY THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES AND  
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BEGINS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT  
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION FOR  
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT AT THIS POINT WITH CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY BUT THAT COULD  
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER.  
 
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BUT 40S HIGHER TERRAIN.  
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER ENERGY DEPARTS  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT AROUND 40 SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 BUT  
UPPER 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S BUT LOWER TO MID 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN  
THE 30S BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID 20S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE REGION AS A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS STILL WELL NW OF OUR  
REGION, SO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. DUE TO  
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF  
RAIN GOING VCSH AT ALL SITES.  
 
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR  
BUT SOME INTERVALS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED AT KPSF. INDICATING  
SOME POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF BUT KEEPING  
VFR ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AT KGFL,  
KALB AND KPSF BUT WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KPOU DUE TO  
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 14Z-15Z AT 10 KT OR  
LESS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT KALB AND KPSF. WIND  
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT KPOU AND KGFL THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE WINDS  
AT 2000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH THE MORNING, AROUND 10 KT AT ALL SITES WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO  
20 KT. WINDS TURN TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.  
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.  
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING MAINLY  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VALLEY  
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. BEHIND  
THIS SYSTEM, IT WILL BE COLD AND BRISK ON SUNDAY WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY, AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES.  
 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 70  
PERCENT, INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 80 AND 95  
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND  
35 TO 50 PERCENT.  
 
WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST-  
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME  
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE  
WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS  
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE  
SATURDAY FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL  
DISTRICT. TOTAL QPF THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A  
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH  
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE ADIRONDACKS ON  
MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ON  
TUESDAY. AGAIN, SOME SNOW MAY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JPV  
NEAR TERM...JPV  
SHORT TERM...JPV  
LONG TERM...NAS  
AVIATION...KL/NAS  
FIRE WEATHER...JPV  
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV  
 
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