335
FXUS61 KALY 081841
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
241 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT
FOR SCHOHARIE, MONTGOMERY, SCHENECTADY, ALBANY, RENSSELAER,
COLUMBIA, GREENE, ULSTER, DUTCHESS, LITCHFIELD, AND BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT TO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHWARD WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
OCCUR WITH ANY DEVELOP THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF WHICH CAN
BECOME SEVERE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE GREAT CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
2) WARM AND HUMID FOR TODAY, WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCES, LATEST SATELLITE, AND RADAR TRENDS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY, GREATER
CAPITAL REGION, THE BERKSHIRES, EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, TACONICS, AND LITCHFIELD HILLS CAN BECOME SEVERE. TAKING
A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS SUCH AS ENERGY AND INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTING THESE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT AS ONCE THE SUN SETS, WE LOSE
SIGNIFICANT ENERGY TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ARE HEAVY DOWNPOURS (UP TO 1 INCH IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THEM), LIGHTNING, AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST. ONCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, A QUIETER
OVERNIGHT IS IN STORE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HUMID
CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
INITIATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY STEEPER
(6-6.5 C/KM) THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO SOME COOLING ALOFT AND
HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION, MID LEVELS
WILL BE A BIT DRIER. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HREFS SUGGESTING MU CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG, GREATEST WITHIN AND
EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID TODAY, THOUGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN THE LAST 2 DAYS, GENERALLY 90-95 WITHIN
RIVER VALLEYS AS ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS REACH 85-90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED
IN ITS WAKE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH EVEN SOME 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO,
DESPITE SIMILAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO TODAY (85-90 IN VALLEYS
AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN), MAX HEAT INDICES
WILL BE EVEN LESS, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN VALLEY
AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WIND POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND
SE CANADA. STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS (H500 WINDS 30-50
KT) ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY
DISTURBANCE THAT PASSES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY SHOULD THEY TRACK
FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION. ONE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN TOWARD LATE WEEK. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH EACH SYSTEM THAT PASSES THROUGH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY AFTER 19Z-20Z, REFLECTED BY PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL
TERMINALS. THESE STORMS COULD BRING VIS/CIG DROPS TO MVFR AS
WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 01Z ON SUNDAY, GIVING WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH CLEARING SKIES. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. BRIEF
DROPS TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED IF THIS DOES DEVELOP. ANY MIST/FOG
SHOULD BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY 12Z-13Z, BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS
BACK TO ALL TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24/05
AVIATION...23
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