165
FXUS61 KALY 102338
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT, FROST IS NOT FAVORED TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BRIEFLY LOWER BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A DRY EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL
CYCLONE ISAIAS, WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING NO FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS RAINFALL RATES
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AND A MORE STEADY AND NORMAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE SEEN DRY CONDITIONS THE
LAST THREE TO FOUR DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING RANGE BETWEEN 0.5 INCHES
TO 1 INCH. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF A MODERATE STEADY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE STEADIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING PRIMARILY SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY,
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH SLIDES INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW YORK WITH MEDIUM (GREATER THAN 50%) TO
HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH AND WITH ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS, THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS INGREDIENTS ARE NOT STRONGLY FAVORED TO
MATERIALIZE AT THIS FORECAST TIME. LATEST PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY HAVE A
GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24
HOURS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR RAINFALL AND A DREARY TUESDAY
IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS A COLDER
AIR MASS ABOVE THE SURFACE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL
REGION RANGE BETWEEN 62 AND 64 DEGREES, WHERE THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60. IN THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL PRIMARILY BEFORE
NOON OR 16Z/SUN FOR KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
LOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
AROUND 8-10 FT AGL. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL INCREASES FIRST FOR
KPOU/KPSF WHERE PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUPS WERE INTRODUCED
15Z-18Z/SUN INITIALLY FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN, AND THEN THE
RAIN EXPANDS NORTH TO KALB/KGFL BETWEEN 16Z-20Z/SUN. EXPECT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT KPSF/KPOU
AFTER 18Z/SUN...AND THE THREAT FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 21Z/SUN.
FURTHER NORTH, WE KEPT THE CIGS/VSBYS MVFR FOR KALB/KGFL FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KT FROM
KALB/KPSF SOUTH TO KPOU BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AT 4-8 KT. LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO KPOU/KPSF
LATER, AS THE 2 KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KT TOWARDS
00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY
SHRA...SLIGHT CHC TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...SLIGHT
CHC TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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