310
FXUS61 KALY 071109
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
609 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY, THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY, WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY WILL START OUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH
SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. SHOWERS
LOOK TO BEGIN BETWEEN 3-6PM FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND 6-9PM FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND
50S THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH. SOME
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
AND UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
AND HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PORTIONS OF THE MID- HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S.
DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WITH BOTH SYSTEMS
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE GREATEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN NEAR OR OFF THE COAST, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL STILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING AND THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIPITATION, PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS COULD START OUT WITH
SNOW OR A MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS MILDER AIR BUILDS
IN DURING THE DAY. LATEST NBM MEAN 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SPANNING 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY IS BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DEPART THE REGION
ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD BRINGING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO, DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MON NIGHT INTO THE
MID WEEK.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NBM/ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW MON NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY SETTING UP
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL SET-UP
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS. IT WILL
BE BRISK WITH PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE VALLEYS COULD ALSO SEE A RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWER TRANSITION WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30F WITH A FEW
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK PARK. VETERANS DAY WILL BE BRISK AND
COLD WITH TEMPS RUNNING AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME
OF THE VALLEY AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 40F. HIGHS WILL
BE MAINLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 20S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
MAY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF >4" OF SNOW IN THE 24-HOUR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z/WED ARE 40-60% OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY BRIEFLY GET DISRUPTED TUE NIGHT, AS THE FLOW
FLATTENS/BACKS OR LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN DACKS
AND 24-HR PROBS FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT >6" ARE 25-40% FOR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY WED. THE
SHORT-WAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE LAKE EFFECT AND
UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPS SLIGHTLY MODIFY AHEAD OF
THE SHORT- WAVE AND COLD FRONT ON WED WITH MID AND UPPER 40S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBS
FOR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE TO 60-80% FOR THE WESTERN DACKS,
NORTHERN CATSKILLS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS WED
NIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS FINISH THE EXTENDED BELOW
NORMAL BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH BRISK CONDITIONS ON THU IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 12Z SAT...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING FURTHER EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 12-17Z/FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 5-6 KFT AGL
PRIOR TO 21Z/SAT AND BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL SKY COVER 10-12 KFT AGL.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
PRIOR TO 00Z/SAT WITH VCSH GROUPS USED. PROB30 GROUPS WITH
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WERE USED AT ALL THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
00Z-06Z/SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING IN AHEAD OF A WARM
OR OCCLUDED FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST AFTER
06Z/SAT WITH A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS ARE KPOU/KPSF, BUT HAVE KEPT
MVFR FOR NOW.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10 KT
AFTER SUNRISE AND FURTHER INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KT
IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO MID PM WITH SOME GUSTS
20-30 KT. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND AFTER 00Z FROM
THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. LLWS
WILL BECOME AN ISSUES BETWEEN 18Z-22Z/SAT AT KPSF/KPOU/KGFL, AS
THE 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40 KT WITH THE SFC WINDS AROUND
10 KT. THE WIND SHEAR EXPANDS TO KALB TOWARDS 00Z/SAT...AND HAVE
KEPT LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z/SAT WITH THE 2 KFT AGL
WINDS 35-45 KT. THE LLWS WILL DECREASE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CONTINUING AT 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
VETERANS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15
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