852
FXUS61 KALY 281101
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS TODAY. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE THE BAND SETS UP, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. FOLLOWING
A DRIER SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED RAIN
AND SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, NORTHERN CATSKILLS, CAPITAL DISTRICT AND PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT BANDS, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY.
- A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FULTON,
MONTGOMERY, SCHOHARIE, EASTERN RENSSELAER AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTIES.
- WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH TODAY COULD LEAD TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY
WITH MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS.
DISCUSSION:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS IMPACTED THE ADIRONDACKS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 28.
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH THE BAND GRADUALLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, THE PRIMARY BAND
WILL BECOME ORIENTED WITHIN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND GRADUALLY
EXPAND WELL INLAND, THANKS TO A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WITH
GEORGIAN BAY, INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY (MAINLY THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT) AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND (MAINLY SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS). THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BAND WILL SET UP EXACTLY TODAY AS THE
BAND MAY ONLY BE AROUND 15 MILES WIDE. THE SCENARIOS CONTINUE
TO BE EITHER THE BAND SETTING UP RIGHT ALONG THE ENTIRE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH. BASED ON A DISRUPTION TO THE
LOW- LEVEL WIND FLOW, SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE BAND LOCATION AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT THE BAND COULD BECOME
MORE STATIONARY AND MORE INTENSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE IT
DOES SET UP, EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL WIDELY VARY BASED ON WHERE THE BAND SETS UP
WITH 6-12 INCHES WHERE THE BAND BECOMES MOST PERSISTENT. SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY ARE LIKELY TO REACH
THESE TOTALS. SOME OF THESE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS COULD EVEN EXTEND
INTO PARTS OF FULTON, MONTGOMERY OR SCHOHARIE COUNTIES PENDING
BAND LOCATION AND DURATION. EVEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES CAN OCCUR WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
(ESPECIALLY THE CAPITAL DISTRICT) WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
(2 TO 5 INCHES) FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. ANYONE TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TODAY IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER/PAVEMENT TO NEAR WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN JUST A FEW MILES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO
TONIGHT. WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHERE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S
EXCEPT LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.
WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN
INTENSITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY, REDUCE INLAND EXTENT AND POSSIBLY DRIFT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO MORE OF THE CATSKILLS. SATURDAY
WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN BUT IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BREEZY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE FLOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WHERE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY, THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE.
CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ENHANCES UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES ON SUNDAY ARE 50 AND 80 PERCENT WITHIN PARTS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WITH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 7 INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
LATER IN TIME FOR THESE AREAS. THIS FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR PARTS
OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY RISE
INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. AS THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
DEPART, THE RETURN OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE:
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES AT 30 TO 50
PERCENT.
DISCUSSION...
ANY LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE WILL BE SHORT LIVED ON MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVERHEAD WITH DRIER WEATHER. ON
TUESDAY, A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH ONE ANOTHER FORMING A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COAST AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EAST
COAST. WHILE THERE IS CONSENSUS OF A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION, THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST
IT DOES TRACK. REGARDLESS OF TRACK, IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. A TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST WOULD INCREASE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH A TRACK
FARTHER OFF THE COAST LIKELY RESULTING IN LESS SNOW OR NO SNOW
AT ALL. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ARE
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TO RETURN BY NEXT THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST,
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NY
AND CENTRAL PA. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TODAY.
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OFF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO, BUT THE CURRENT FLOW IS KEEPING THESE BANDS
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. STILL, THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE IS ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC
STRATOCU, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4-6 KFT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS TO START THE DAY.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CHANGING
TO MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH KGFL
BY 13Z-17Z, ALLOWING FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN
SNOW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KGFL BY 18Z.
MEANWHILE, A FEW FLURRIES OR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR KALB AS EARLY AS 15Z, BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT BAND WILL BE AROUND 19Z-00Z, WHEN BRIEF BURSTS OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALLOWING FOR IFR
VISIBILITY. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED FOR KPSF (20Z-02Z).
MEANWHILE, SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KPOU THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY. SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR KALB/KPSF, BUT THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OVER BY THAT POINT. A QUICK INCH OR TWO MAY
ACCUMULATE WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD.
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. A FEW GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30
KTS, MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT BUT STILL WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...RA.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ054.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ039-040-
047-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15/33
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...27
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