864
FXUS61 KALY 251834
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPECTED STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH
FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY
RESULTING IN MODERATE SNOWFALL EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE I-90
CORRIDOR WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS NOW
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS WHERE MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
2. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING, LIKELY BEGINNING AS A WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN) BEFORE POTENTIALLY ENDING AS PLAIN RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING.
3. MUCH COLDER WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY THROUGH FRI MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST BETWEEN 25-40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL
ALSO TURN COLDER TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM -5F IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER 10S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND -15F TO 5F.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRI, AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS NE ACROSS QUEBEC AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH,
VERY SIMILAR TO A "RIDGE-ROLLER" TYPE DISTURBANCE WHICH PRODUCES
SUMMERTIME MCS ACTIVITY, APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E/SE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SAT MORNING. A SWATH OF SNOW POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
FROM AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH. SLIGHTLY SLOPED F-GEN
MAXIMIZED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES AND SLR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AT 13:1 TO 15:1, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS.
THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK HAS SHIFTED EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR 6-7"+
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. MODERATE
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH TO THE I-90 CORRIDOR, WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 3-6" ARE NOW EXPECTED. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST,
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES ARE NOW EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST, AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH, SOME ADVISORIES AND
EVEN WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD LATER IN TIME.
MESOSCALE BANDING COULD LEAD TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FRIDAY
EVENING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, WITH 12Z HREFS SUGGESTING SOME
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HOUR (PROBS FOR > 1"/HOUR ~60-80"
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM, AND PROBS FOR >2"/HOUR ARE 20-40% DURING
SAME TIME PERIOD). FARTHER NORTH, SNOWFALL RATES COULD
REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 1"/HOUR AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 BETWEEN 6-10
PM. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH GREATEST SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES WHEN THE SNOW STARTS DUE TO WET BULB EFFECTS.
MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO/THROUGH THE TEENS, PERHAPS EVEN
SOME LOWER TEENS, WHILE THE SNOW IS OCCURRING, SO IT WILL MAKE
SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING ON AREA ROADWAYS,
LIKELY LEADING TO VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN BY SUN EVENING, AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKS FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL BRING OVER-RUNNING
PRECIP SUN NIGHT, BUT WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD/INITIALLY DRY
AIR IN PLACE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX TO START (MAINLY
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN), WHICH WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS THE
FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHELTERED AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY INTO
MON MORNING.
THERE IS A MODERATE/HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ICE IN
MANY AREAS WITH NBM 24 PROBS FOR > 0.01" ICE ENDING 7 AM MONDAY
OF 40-90%+ (GREATEST IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY). SIMILAR NBM
PROBS FOR > 0.10 ICE ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
AT 10-40%. COLD GROUND SURFACES LEADING INTO THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED GROUND/ROAD SURFACES.
AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS INTO QUEBEC ON MON, WARMING WOULD RESULT
IN WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD
FRONT. 24-HR NBM PROBS FOR > 0.50" LIQUID EQUIVALENT ENDING 7 PM
MONDAY ARE 60-90%, AND 40-70% FOR > 1.00", ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF GREATEST AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH/EXCEED 40 IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-90
MONDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY THEN FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PAST THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WITH PLENTIFUL CVA AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, SETTING UP A ROBUST NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. ADD IN 40-50 KT WINDS ALOFT AND SURFACE
CAA PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL MIXING, AND WE ARE SET UP NICELY FOR
POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL (45-55 MPH) WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. LATEST NBM PROBS HAVE JUMP ON BOARD WITH THIS
POTENTIAL, WITH AT LEAST A 50-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN OR EQUAL TO 45 MPH MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
BERKSHIRES, CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN ADKS. PROBABILITIES DECREASE
ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, THOUGH IT
IS WORTH NOTING THESE CHANCES HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS.
GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. BEING THIS FAR OUR, CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR FOR THE TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME
SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS NEAR HIGH-END MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPSF/KGFL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SUBSIDING UNDER 10 KTS AND
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SNOW
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BEHIND THE HIGH
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT IMPACTS AREN'T EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 26/18Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 33 KTS. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31 KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ058-059-063>066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ038>040-047>054-060-061.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/17/24
AVIATION...17
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