977
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME SNOW SHOWERS/LIGHT WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AND RAIN) REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90.
2) ACTIVE PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS TRACKING TOWARD THE REGION RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SNOW/WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OF SNOW, RAIN
AND WINTRY MIX THROUGH MID MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90. FIRST DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BRINGING SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, ALTHOUGH
DESPITE RADAR RETURNS, NYS MESONET WEBCAMS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR OUTSIDE OF A
FEW FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP AS INITIAL
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH, ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SW
ADIRONDACKS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN VT.
SECOND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE ONTARIO, AND AS
THIS TRACKS EAST, ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, THEN PERSISTING THROUGH MID MORNING
BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. P-TYPE WILL VARY BETWEEN LIGHT
SNOW ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPS, WHICH WILL LIKELY VARY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A COATING TO LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. WILL ADDRESS ANY SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COMMENCES WITH COLD FRONT
SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP AS THE
WAVE TRACKS THROUGH, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL BE MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN A ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST
BAND SOMEWHERE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. 01Z/NBM
INDICATES 24-HOUR PROBS FOR >4" SNOWFALL ENDING 7 AM THURSDAY AT
40-60% FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90, 20-40% ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING ALBANY AND PITTSFIELD, AND UNDER 20% FARTHER SOUTH. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE
DIFFICULT IN THESE AREAS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND SHOULD CONFIDENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FURTHER, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR SOME OR MOST OF THESE AREAS.
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, THE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MORE SHALLOW AND COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TO
OCCUR FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90, PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE BERKSHIRES. SOME OF
THIS WINTRY MIX COULD START WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. P-TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90,
ALTHOUGH COULD BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS.
CLOSER TO I-90, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO
SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90 CLOSER TO I-84 AND ACROSS NW CT AND THE SE CATSKILLS,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS MAINLY RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS,
AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO A BRIEF WINTRY MIX AND THEN ENDING
AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK THURSDAY, NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SNOW
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE REGION FRIDAY, INCLUDING A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE,
AND MAY END FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX LATER FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FLUCTUATION OF CONDITIONS OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT
KPSF WITH LOW CEILINGS. MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KALB,
KGFL, AND KPOU THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z, MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z, CONDITIONS FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING LOW CLOUD LEVELS. FOR
KGFL AND KPSF, MIST/PATCHY FOG CAN DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONTRIBUTE TO MELTING
SNOW LEADING TO VISIBILITY DROPPING BETWEEN FOUR TO SIX MILES. THIS
HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
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