189
FXUS61 KALY 141137
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A FEW LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A CHILLY NIGHT
TONIGHT. THEN, OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERIODS
OF FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WE TURN COOLER SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE FROM
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION:
BROAD MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
BACKING MORE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
FRAGMENTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LIMITED TO THE FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS WITH SKIES GIVING WAY TO
SUN OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER, AS ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ELICIT
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS,
NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS, MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN FINISH
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S (UPPER 40S IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY) WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WINDS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WITH RIDGING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SLIDING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW INITIAL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO CLEARING. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL POSITIONED TO
OUR WEST, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COLD AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST A
60-70% CHANCE FOR MOST OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO
FALL UNDER 25 DEGREES TONIGHT. VALUES DROP TO UNDER 40% IN THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THEREFORE,
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL HAVE A CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT (COLDEST IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS AS MOISTURE SPILLS OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AXIS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
WESTERN ONTARIO DEEPENING, ELICITING A SFC LOW IN THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THAT TRACKS EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD, INCREASED WARM
AIR AND MOISTER ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION SHIELD
THAT EXPANDS AND SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY BETWEEN 21 AND 00 UTC. DESPITE THE
CHILLY START TO SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN POCKETS OF 50 IN VALLEY
AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S, INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD LEAD TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES DUE TO WET-BULBING PROCESSES. WHILE MOST SHOULD SEE
PLAIN RAIN THROUGH THE EVENT, EXPECTING A WINTRY MIX IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT WHERE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TOWARDS FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR INITIAL RAIN/SLEET MIX BECOMING MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AS
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT STRENGTHENS BUT THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN COOL
(ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AND VALLEY AREAS). THIS CAN RESULT IN A
GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED AND COOLER SURFACE WITH EVEN SOME
ROADS BECOMING SLIPPERY SATURDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES HOVER
NEAR FREEZING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AFTER WHICH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
SUPPORTING A TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN
FREEZING RAIN INCREASE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEEDED.
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH 06 - 09 UTC, THEN THE
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD, USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR AND TRANSITIONING STEADY RAIN TO SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A 50 TO 75% FOR 24 HOUR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO EXCEED 35MPH WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DOWN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, NORTHERN/EASTERN
CATSKILLS, INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.
DISCUSSION:
WE ENTER INTO A CHILLY AND WINDY PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THE SFC LOW FROM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT UNDERGOES
CYCLOGENESIS AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
IN ITS WAKE AND INDUCE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS BROAD TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. SUCH A SET-UP FAVORS NOT ONLY A LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION,
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT FLOW REGIME. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THAT EXTEND WELL INLAND LOOKS
TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THE EXACT LOCATIONS WHERE
THESE BANDS IMPACT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION. A
MORE WESTERLY WIND ORIENTATION WILL DIRECT THE BANDS DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY WHILE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
THE BANDS A BIT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT BANDS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREENS. THE
LAKE EFFECT SIGNAL LOOKS TO BECOME DISRUPTED AND WEAKENS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE WITHIN THE MEAN
TROUGHING BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD.
BESIDES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS 50-70% CHANCE FOR 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 35 MPH DUE TO THE DEEPENING LOW TO OUR EAST, STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR 35MPH+ WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY WHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
FOCUS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
WESTERN MA DUE TO CHANNELED FLOW. WITH AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL UNDER 40 DEGREES ON MONDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY
MAKE MONDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TERMINALS NOW SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AS OF
6:30 AM EST. STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4500-6000 FT AT ALB/GFL/POU TODAY AND TONIGHT (WITH
MORE CLEARING TONIGHT). AT PSF, HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. AT PSF, MAINLY SCT TO BKN CIGS 3500-5000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE W/NW TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY 03Z, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 32 KTS. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...35
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