509
FXUS61 KALY 241723
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED BELOW THE NBM VALUES ON THU WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THU-THU NIGHT WITH HIGHEST
VALUES 80-100% PREDOMINATELY THU NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING
FOR THU AND FRI.
2) TEMPS TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASING
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 AM EDT...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING ALOFT, AS A SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY.
AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING MIST/FOG BURNS OFF, EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S AND A WEST/NORTHWEST
BREEZE AT 5-15 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR LATE JUNE SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS WITH MID
60S TO MID 70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL/QUASI-ZONAL TONIGHT
INTO THU. ANOTHER COOL AND PLEASANT NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN WITH THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT. THE LATEST GFS/EC SIDE MORE WITH THE NBM WITH A
QUICKER ONSET OF SHOWERS AND A FEW-SCT THUNDERSTORMS THU PM,
WHEREAS, THE NAM/CMC KEEP THE THREAT MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE DURING THE DAY. WE KEPT POPS 50-70%
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL, AND WENT
20-45% ALONG AND TO THE EAST. THE LATEST HREFS INDICATE MEAN
MUCAPES MAINLY 250-500 J/KG WITH POCKETS IN THE 500-750 J/KG
RANGE. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KT) BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1-1.25" HEADING INTO THU NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/STRATIFORM
RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/ IS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP MAX
TEMPS DOWN A BIT COMPARED TO THE NBM, AS WE BLENDED THE MET MOS
GUIDANCE IN, BUT DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE MAVMOS. MAX TEMPS
STILL NEAR NORMAL IN 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SOME 60S OVER THE
MTNS. WITH THE WET-BULB COOLING/RAIN COOLED AIR, LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER UPSTATE NY INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM, AS THE COLD FRONT
QUICKLY APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE TIMING DOES
NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
POINT. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED. IF THE FRONT
IS SLOWER, THEN A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE. THE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PREDOMINATELY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS THE FRONT SETTLED SOUTH OF
THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ON SAT CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A FEW
COOLER TEMPS OVER THE MTNS. THE BOUNDARY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
I-80 AND CENTRAL PA-NJ THAT CLOUDS LINGER AS FAR NORTH AS I-90
AND A FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD TO OPEN THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE TREND
HAS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH TO I-84 AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY OVER
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND GREAT
LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD IN OVER THE REGION
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM OFF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MON-TUE. TEMPS RISE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN VALLEYS BASED
ON THE NBM AND WPC GUIDANCE. DEWPOINTS RISE WELL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME MUGGIER MON-TUE. HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER AND SPOTTY MID 90S MAY OCCUR BY TUE IN
SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE INTO THE MID WEEK, AND AS WE OPEN JULY ON WED. SOME
HEAT-RELATED IMPACT MAY ENSUE FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR KALB AND KPSF WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z. AFTER 23Z,
WINDS BECOME LIGHTER RANGING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. CALM WINDS
RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (BETWEEN 4-6Z) INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page