873  
FXUS61 KALY 222140  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
440 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS.  
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS  
INCREASING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC  
STATES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT AND A COASTAL LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING NEAR NEW JERSEY WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY  
MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ITS COLD  
FRONT WILL BRING VERY WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 440 PM EST...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR  
TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DECREASING  
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. SOME HIGH  
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DRIFTED IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THE  
CENTRAL AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY  
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM.  
RELATIVELY FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN OVER  
NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THE CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL  
PROMOTE SOME IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT  
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT  
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND LOWER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT  
SOUTH DOWN THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN  
TACONICS AND NW CT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
...HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY WEST OF THE  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS,  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY, SCHOHARIE VALLEY, HELDERBERGS  
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...  
 
TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND TO  
START THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES WITH THE STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE, BUT THIS WILL BE THE ONLY TRANQUIL  
DAY OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE  
OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY  
TILTED BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z  
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. A DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL  
BE MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTER GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE  
LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE  
DAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BY THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF A WARM  
FRONT. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR  
LATE FEB WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND  
ACROSS NW CT, AND LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE MTNS. SFC DEWPTS  
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WE BACKED OFF THE POPS UNTIL  
THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS FROM  
THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES.  
 
SAT NIGHT...INITIALLY THE SURFACES START OUT COLD, AND  
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 285/290K SURFACES. THE COLUMN  
WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO SATURATE. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY  
H850 LLJ INCREASES TO 35-50 KTS OVERNIGHT ADVECTING SOME GULF  
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE LOW-LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW DUE TO  
THE RETREATING HIGH OFFSHORE, AND A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR  
THE DELMARVA REGION OR SOUTHEAST NJ WILL BE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST/EAST. THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR AIR MAY STAY LOCKED INTO  
PLACE ENOUGH WITH A WARM NOSE LOWERING BELOW H850 TO H900/H925  
FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN. THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, AS WELL  
AS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY, UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, AND EAST  
OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND  
CATEGORICAL VALUES SHORTLY BEFORE AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS  
LOOKS LIKE A LATE 3RD PERIOD TO 4TH PERIOD ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY LATER  
DUE TO THE MIXED PCPN AND FREEZING RAIN. ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS  
WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO AN INCH OR LESS. WE WILL  
CONTINUE MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVISORY IN THE HWO AND  
DSS MESSAGING. A LIGHT GLAZE TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS  
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AGAIN, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
BERKSHIRES, POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN GREENS, AND THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRODNACKS, AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY MAY RECEIVE UP TO A  
TENTH OF ICE. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S,  
BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  
 
SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR SOME MIXED PCPN, ESPECIALLY A CHANCE OF  
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE  
NORTHERN MOST ZONES, SUCH AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION, AND SOUTHERN  
VT. THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS H850 TEMPS GETTING ABOVE 0C BY  
12Z/SUN, BUT THE H925 TEMPS LINGER BELOW 0C FOR LOCATIONS EAST  
OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS IN VT, AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS UNTIL  
15Z-18Z. THE LATEST 3-KM NAMNEST IS SIMILAR, SO WE COULD HAVE  
SOME LINGERING FREEZING RAIN DUE TO SUBFREEZING AIR TRAPPED AT  
THE SFC ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREENS,  
AND MAYBE THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WE KEPT A SMALL AREA OF  
FREEZING RAIN GOING UNTIL NOONTIME OR SO. THE REST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF RAIN DUE TO THE GOOD  
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE SECONDARY  
SFC LOW MOVING FROM COASTAL NJ TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. A DRY SLOT MAY PUNCH IN MAKING THE PCPN MORE SHOWERY BY  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A POWERHOUSE SFC CYCLONE  
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AT 970-975 HPA. THE  
CLOSED COMPACT IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO  
TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WE DID NOT ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER,  
BUT SPC HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER, AS THE  
WARM OR OCCLUDED FRONT BREAKS THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS  
ARE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUDS AND PCPN. WE USED A BLEND OF THE  
GUIDANCE AND HAVE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS. THE  
MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION, AND THE WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO POSSIBLY REACH 50F. THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID AND UPPER 50S.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE SECONDARY CYCLONE MOVES  
NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT, A SFC  
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER  
BACK. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A  
VERY STRONG ISALLOBARIC RISE/FULL SFC PRESSURE COUPLET  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP AND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE BEST WINDS WILL LIKELY  
OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND AN IMPRESSIVE  
H850/H925 LOW- LEVEL JET. THE LATEST 00Z GEFS HAVE THE +U  
COMPONENT OF THE WIND /WESTERLIES/ INCREASING TO +3 TO +4 STD  
DEVS ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN 00Z-12Z/SUN FROM ROUGHLY THE EASTERN  
CATSKILLS, AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD. THE H925 WINDS  
INCREASE TO 40-45+ KTS. THE BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER BASED ON  
THE 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES FROM THE NAM/GFS LOOKS LIKE LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHERE WE COULD MIX 40-45+ KTS FROM 2-3 KFT  
AGL. WE TYPICALLY DO NOT ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCHES THIS FAR OUT,  
BUT WE PLACED LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN A  
HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED  
TO EXPAND IT FURTHER EASTWARD IN TIME, ESPECIALLY THE CAPITAL  
REGION, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS, BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD IF  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS OF 58  
MPH OR GREATER. RIGHT NOW, MOST OF OUR AREA COULD SEE GUSTS OF  
45-55 MPH, AND WE DEFINITELY COULD HAVE WIND ADVISORIES, BUT  
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES  
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, WE MAY NEED  
TO EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH LATER.  
 
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. INITIALLY, THERE  
COULD BE A BURST OF SNOW WITH THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WITH THE  
COLD FRONT, AND THEN WE TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEVERAL INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR  
THE SOUTHERN OR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK  
VALLEY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL  
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO COVER THIS THREAT. FOR NOW WE HAVE  
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TALLIES FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS  
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, AND SOUTHERN GREENS. SOME LOWER 30S ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR RISE  
ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEENS TO MID 20S OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WINDS WILL BE STARTING TO DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE-  
EHHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS,  
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND CATSKILLS. THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A FETCH OF NW FLOW CONTINUES  
OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END TUESDAY  
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS TUESDAY  
MORNING WILL BE COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THESE  
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE  
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY IN  
THE TEENS AND 20S.  
 
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TANGIBLE WEATHER PLUMMETS AS WE HEAD  
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/FV3 HAS SHOWN A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM  
TRAVERSING EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WIDESPREAD  
LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE PAST 10 RUNS OR SO, WITH THE  
CANADIAN SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH LATER TIMING. THE ECMWF HAS  
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, WITH THE PIECE OF ENERGY  
BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AND CONTAINING MUCH LESS MOISTURE. THE GEFS  
DISPLAYS A BULLSEYE OF SPREAD ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 HPA IN THE MSLP  
FIELD RIGHT OVER OUR REGION WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, LEADING TO A  
LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A  
BLENDED SOLUTION THAT TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH CHANCE SNOW  
SHOWERS. HOPEFULLY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BEGIN TO CONVERGE OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
INTO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR  
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24  
HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE  
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION, WITH MOST TAF SITES BEING  
INFLUENCED BY A BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK. AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE REGION, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP,  
RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE  
OUT SOME SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND (FREEZING) FOG WHICH COULD  
DEVELOP AT KGFL/KALB CLOSE TO 12Z/SAT, AND LOWER VISIBILITIES.  
 
WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT, WITH A FEW  
INTERMITTENT GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME  
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...FZRA.  
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.  
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. VERY WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 46.0 CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.  
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. VERY WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 45.0 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0 NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HOROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY  
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ON  
SUNDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH TOTAL QPF  
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN HALF OF AN INCH UP TO AN INCH WITH  
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
THE RAINFALL, COMBINED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WILL PROMOTE  
SNOWMELT AND SOME MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS. THE LATEST MMEFS  
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO FLOODING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  
 
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE INTO  
MONDAY. COLD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, AND  
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MID WEEK. FLOWS SHOULD  
LOWER QUICKLY, AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
MID TO LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
NYZ032-033-038>040-047-048-051-058-063-082.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...CEBULKO  
AVIATION...JLV  
HYDROLOGY...WASULA  
 
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