903
FXUS61 KALY 171036
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY NOW HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED, SOME
CLEARING IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS COULD ALLOW FOR
A LINE OF STRONG STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
NBM HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH
ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES NOW IN
THE 40-80% RANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG STORMS AREN'T ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
2) A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
DOWNED TREE LIMBS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND FOR WESTERN AREAS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS. DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE, CAMS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
RATHER THIN CAPE PROFILES ALOFT, MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY LOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (VALUES IN THE 50S) AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GENERALLY WILL BE UNDER 500 J/KG AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WON'T BE VERY STRONG AT ALL. AS A RESULT,
WHILE SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND THUNDERSTORMS WON'T BE LONG LIVED OR
VERY ORGANIZED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME
PARTS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES FOR
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID JUNE (SUB-990 MB LOW) WILL
BE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
SOUTHERN QUEBEC FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
IN PLACE THANKS TO THIS STORM SYSTEM, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND
WESTERLY BY EVENING. SOME GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NBM HAS BEEN INCREASING THE PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 MPH, WITH NOW PROBABILITIES AS HIGH AS
40 TO 80% OVER THE CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN TACONICS. SOME
DOWNED TREES LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS EVEN
SUB-ADVISORY WINDS CAN HAVE IMPACTS IN THE WARM SEASON DUE TO
THE LEAVES ON THE TREES.
THERE ARE ALSO WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
(PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE STORM'S WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BRIEF CLEARING IN THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY
TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE STORM'S COLD FRONT. WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE 60S), THERE COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH SBCAPE (PERHAPS 500-1000 J/KG) TO ALLOW FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FROM ABOUT THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE STRONG
DYNAMICS IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER, WITH VALUES OVER 60 KTS ACCORDING TO THE 00Z HRRR. THE
00Z HRRR AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE SIGTOR VALUES, WITH
VALUES OVER 3, WHICH MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE EXPECTED HELICITY IN
PLACE. THE INSTABILITY IS STILL THE ONE QUESTION MARK AND COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR IF ENOUGH CLEARING DOESN'T OCCUR, BUT THE
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD ALOFT DOES SUGGEST A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IS IN PLACE. SPC NOW HAS A
SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH MAKES SENSE
CONSIDERING THE LATEST CAMS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT KGFL BUT HAD
ALREADY BEGUN DISSIPATING WITH SUNRISE UNDERWAY. AS A RESULT,
ALL SITES ARE BACK TO BEING VFR WITH JUST FEW-SCT CUMULUS AND
SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING ANY PASSING SHOWERS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A
PROB30 TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY) WITHIN ANY BRIEF SHOWERS. A BRIEF RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE VFR,
WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 6-8 KFT AND SOME ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER GUSTS CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF TONIGHT WITH BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR
ALL SITES. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS RAIN WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TO BE MVFR ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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