198
FXUS61 KALY 060648
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
248 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH CALM WINDS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO, SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING HOW WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK WILL GET, WITH SOME SIGNALS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD END UP
WELL BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, WHICH HAVE A MARGINAL RISK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS, BUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
2) AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES TREND BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2:45 AM EDT...1004 MB SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING FROM
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY POTENT
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. OUT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, CALM
WINDS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MANY HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, WHILE VALLEY AREAS REMAIN IN THE 60S
PER LATEST NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBS. MANY PLACES HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY HIT THEIR OVERNIGHT LOWS, AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO AND NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN ADKS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS INTO THIS MORNING. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH CURRENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SOME POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
THIS MORNING, SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ADKS, POSSIBLY
SCRAPING THE FAR UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND/OR SOUTHERN VT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TRACKS EASTWARDS. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT ISN'T EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO MUCH CONVECTION GIVEN INSTABILITY WON'T HAVE MUCH TIME TO
BUILD. HOWEVER, THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON, DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM TO IGNITE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
ENDING EARLY TONIGHT. HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, IT WILL BE
HOT, BUT HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC SETUP. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RUNNING INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVERLAPPING WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3 KM THANKS TO A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS LOOK
TO HAVE JUST ENOUGH OF A PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT TO THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT SOME DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS CI OCCURS, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW-LEVEL FORCING
DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SW BEHIND THIS MORNING'S PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. HOWEVER, BUT RATHER IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED UPPER JET STREAK WILL LEAD TO STRONG FORCING ALOFT. GIVEN
THIS, COMBINED WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THAT WILL LEAD TO
SPLITTING CELLS, AND RATHER DEEP COLD POOLS DUE TO A WELL MIXED
BL, STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS
FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (DCAPE
VALUES UP TO ~1000 J/KG), ESPECIALLY AS COLD POOLS CONGEAL AND
UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. HOWEVER, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND
DECENTLY STRONG EL WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS. WILL MENTION
THAT SPC HAS REMOVED THE 2% TORNADO THREAT FROM OUR AREA, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN A LACK OF VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS EXPECTED TODAY.
WHILE WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS
OUR ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY CAMS AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE,
A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER
AROUND TODAY THAT LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS LIMITS
INSTABILITY. SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON COULD ALSO
POTENTIALLY INHIBIT CI. THESE OUTCOMES COULD LEAD TO A MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, BUT SEEM LIKE LESS-LIKELY SCENARIOS AT
THIS POINT.
THE OTHER, SECONDARY THREAT TO MENTION IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5" THIS AFTERNOON, AND MEAN MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THAT SOME BACKBUILDING OR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WHILE STORM MOTIONS LOOK MODERATELY
FAST, ANY BACKBUILDING CONVECTION MAY MOVE SLOWER WITH CORFIDI
UPSHEAR VECTORS ~10 KT. WPC HAS NOT INCLUDED OUR AREA IN AN ERO,
WHICH MAKES SENSE AND AGREES WITH OUR THINKING GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY. THAT SAID, WHILE WE AREN'T OVERLY CONCERNED
ABOUT HYDRO ISSUES, LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IF STORMS HAPPEN TO TRAIN/BACKBUILD OVER ANY OF OUR URBAN
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. THE SEVERE
THREAT COMES TO AN END, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING OVER OUR REGION AND A FAIRLY STRONG EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SUNDAY DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT, HOWEVER, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALSO MOVES INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE REGION. TO START THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WITH OUR REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN COOL ADVECTION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
THE SFC HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD. GIVEN PERSISTENT NBM WARM BIAS,
WE LOWERED TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BY A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES. WHILE TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARDS, HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD, BUT MAY BE SUPPRESSED BY A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING OVERTOP THE RIDGE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT END UP AS HIGH AS THE
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SHOWS. WPC DID KNOCK DOWN NBM TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES THU/FRI, BUT WE STILL FEEL THIS FORECAST IS TOO WARM (OR,
THINK OF IT AS SHOWING A WORST-CASE SCENARIO) WITH HIGHS MORE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S, CLOSER TO MEX/ECM GUIDANCE. DEW
POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THOUGH, SO IT WILL FEEL MORE MUGGY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAT
IMPACTS, BUT GIVEN CURRENT THINKING WE MAY GET THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITHOUT NEEDING HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF
1:15 AM EDT WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. THERE WAS
SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER OR NOT FOG WOULD FORM AT GFL, BUT WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ABOUT TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED IN LEAVING ANY MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THE REST OF
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT GFL THIS
MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE, SO HAVE KEPT FAIRLY WIDE
RANGES IN THE PROB30 GROUPS TO MESSAGE THIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT IFR VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT,
WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT FROM THE SW WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT
(STRONGEST AT ALB) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE STORMS DEPART THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, WINDS TURN TO THE W/SW AT 5-10 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15-20 KT AT ALB AND POSSIBLY PSF. HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH 35-45 KT WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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