517
FXUS61 KALY 072322
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE FROST FOR THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY FOR
TONIGHT, BUT CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE DUE TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, HAVE LOWERED
DEWPOINTS FROM NBM VALUES FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITHIN DAYTIME
MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY TONIGHT DUE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S, WHICH MAY
IMPACT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION.
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE SOME PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU OVER THE
REGION. DESPITE GOOD MIXING, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AS WELL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY COOL OFF, ESPECIALLY FOR SHELTERED AREAS
OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY, SUCH AS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT AND A
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT, BUT
ALL AREAS MAY SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASING. CLOUDS MAY STILL BE
THIN ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LOWS IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF FROST, WHICH COULD
IMPACT ANY SENSITIVE, TENDER AND/OR YOUNG VEGETATION THAT HAS
BEEN PUT OUTDOORS EARLY THIS SEASON. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON, SE WARREN AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTIES,
AND GARDENERS AND GROWERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PROTECT ANY
SENSITIVE PLANTS IN THIS AREA FOR TONIGHT. LUCKILY, TEMPERATURES
AREN'T EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR ANY AREAS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE AFTER SUNRISE, ENDING THE THREAT FOR FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A STEADY LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, AS WARM
ADVECTION AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALLOW FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAINFALL. STILL, RAINFALL RATES AND TOTAL AMOUNTS DON'T
LOOK EXCESSIVE, WITH MAINLY A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS, CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY WITH
SOME WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND BRIEFLY RISING HEIGHTS, WITH 60S FOR
HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS
SOME MORE SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY. WHILE THE WEATHER PATTERN ISN'T IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR
PLANS EACH DAY, THERE WON'T BE ANY THREATS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 7:20 PM EDT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT POU
AROUND 06-09Z, WITH SOME MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A VCSH GROUP FOR ALB FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL, BUT WILL KEEP
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THERE. OTHERWISE, SCT TO BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR ALB/POU/PSF. BRIEF MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FRIDAY.
IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS AT ALB/PSF, BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 5
KT OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WEST WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-
25 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF) TOMORROW LATE MORNING THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35
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