085
FXUS61 KALY 281041
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. THESE CHANGES INCLUDE INCREASING WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LOWERING DEW POINTS AND RH
EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND INCREASING HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MONDAY FOR VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90.
2) MULTIPLE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WHETHER OR NOT ANY
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 1:55 AM EDT...TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 10S IN THE ADKS TO AROUND FREEZING
NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING, THE UPPER FORCING PLUS STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY,
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, GENERALLY A
COATING TO A HALF INCH OR SO. THEREFORE, IMPACTS LOOK VERY
MINOR, WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH 20-30 KT WINDS FROM THE W/NW AND 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND -13 TO -15C, WE SHOULD SEE A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE COLLABORATED
WITH WFO BUF/BGM/BTV TO INCREASE POPS AND ADDED AN ADDITIONAL
COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADKS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT GIVEN 850 MB WINDS OF
AROUND 30 KT AND DEEP BL MIXING WITHIN THE CAA REGIME, HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS/GUSTS TODAY TO 25-30 KT. STRONGEST WINDS/GUSTS
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL W/NW FLOW CHANNELING AREAS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND BERKSHIRES. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 20S (TERRAIN) TO 30S (VALLEYS), THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
QUITE CHILLY TODAY.
ASIDE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ADKS WHILE LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD DRY OUT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. TONIGHT
ALSO LOOKS QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 10S TO 20S.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH
AND DRY NW FLOW WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALL PROMOTE
SUBSIDENCE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE
BREEZY AT TIMES SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY, WE GET INTO FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN BROAD UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE WINDS SWITCH TO
THE W/SW WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION,
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY
MORNING. STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH A GULF CONNECTION WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING MOISTURE, WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
AND CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION. TUESDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT, WHICH WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS PWATS INCREASE TO +2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS.
HOWEVER, WITH LESS FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION, CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE LOWER THERE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ASSUMING THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST,
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COULD REACH THE LOW 70S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN CT, WITH 50S TO 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION. PRECIP (RAIN) CHANCES THEN INCREASE AGAIN REGION-WIDE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO OUR NORTH AND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION. WEDNESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFIC QPF AMOUNTS, THE NBM MEAN
DOES SHOW A GENERAL 0.5 TO 1" OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ADKS. THERE IS STILL A COUPLE INCHES OF LIQUID IN THE
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADKS, SO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW MELT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RISES ON RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS. HOWEVER,
LATEST HEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW (5-10% OR LESS) CHANCE OF
MINOR FLOODING FOR MOST MAIN-STEM RIVERS, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST CANADA
CREEK AND SCHROON RIVER WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER, ALBEIT STILL ON THE LOW SIDE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONABLE (I.E. COOLER) TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, THE DRY WEATHER MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST TO HELP LIFT THIS
FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST, SOME
WINTRY PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE CPC IS EXPECTING THE WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
DAYS 8- 14, AND ALSO EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR NEAR KGFL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH ANY
PASSING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WINDS CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. WINDS CHANGE DIRECTION AT KALB, KPOU,
AND KGFL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TO THE WEST AND INCREASE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 30 KNOTS. THEN, WINDS DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET (BY 00Z) TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...05
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