650
FXUS61 KALY 291843
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
243 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AND EASTERN NY
EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WEST-CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
SOME SMALL STREAMS CREEKS AND AREAL RIVER FLOODING.
SOME CHANGES TO HOURLY POPS/WEATHER WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA A HALF AN INCH TO TWO
INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF
CATSKILLS, THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BANDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD
WATCH AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO POTENTIAL
SUSTAINED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING INTO TONIGHT.
2) SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON THE SCHOHARIE AND ESOPUS
CREEKS, AS WELL AS THE HOOSIC RIVERS.
3) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN IMPRESSIVE LATE JULY RAIN STORM CONTINUES ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. A CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH BANDS OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED T-STORMS POSSIBLE. DOUBLE-BARREL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH ONE LOW OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY AND A COASTAL LOW
NEAR LONG ISLAND. DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WITH PWAT ANOMALIES 2 TO 3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE IN THE SPS RAP MESO-ANALYSIS. MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED VORTICES ARE IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE
RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND ANOTHER
MOVING OVER THE CAPITAL REGION WITH A THIRD MOVING INTO NW CT
AND WESTERN MA. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
RATES MAINLY 0.1-0.5"/HR THOUGH CLOSER TO THE HEAVIER BANDS,
SOME 0.5-1.0"/HR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. WARM RAINFALL EFFICIENT
PROCESSES CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS 12-13 KFT AGL. TRAINING RAINFALL ECHOES WILL ALSO YIELD
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING IN SPOTS.
AN ADDITIONAL 0.5"-2.0" OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 3"
OR SO ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE CAPITAL REGION/SARATOGA REGION, UPPER MID HUDSON VALLEY,
NORTHERN TACONICS, HELDERBERGS, AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS HAVE
RECEIVED 4-11" OF RAINFALL WITH 11.03" OF RAINFALL IN THE NYS
MESONET AT SCHODACK AND 10.69" AT KINDERHOOK AS OF 2 PM. THIS
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 24-30 HOURS. THE ALBANY AIRPORT
HAS A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.95" OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS SINCE 8 AM
YESTERDAY UNTIL 2 PM, WHICH IS A VERY HIGH AMOUNT FOR ANY
RAINFALL EVENT. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL 8 PM/00Z.
WE WANT TO KEEP IT UP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE. PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND
URBAN AREAS, AND SOME ROAD WASHOUTS MAY CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY
WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MID 70S OVER
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS, WHERE THE RAIN LET
UP WITH A FEW BREAK IN THE CLOUDS.
SOME DRIER AIR MAY FEED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM, AS THE SHOWERS
WILL LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F IN A
FEW SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME MINOR TO LOW END MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ON THE ESOPUS CREEK AT MT TREMPER/COLD BROOK AND MT
MARION. THIS IS DUE TO THE RAINFALL OF 4-9+" AND RUN-OFF IN THE
BASINS. MT TREMPER LOOKS TO HAVE CRESTED AND THESE POINTS COULD
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR/MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
SCHOHARIE CREEK AT PRATTSVILLE, GILBOA BRIDGE, AND BREAKABEEN.
WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AT
BURTONSVILLE. WE CONTINUE A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING AT
WILLIAMSTOWN ON THE HOOSIC RIVER AND POTENTIALLY EAGLE BRIDGE IN
RENSSELAER CO. MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION/UPPER MID
HUDSON VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS/HELDERBERGS AND THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE RIVERS/STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO CREST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON THE
MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL DEPEND WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.
WE CONTINUE TO CAREFULLY MONITOR RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY OCCUR INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE MID AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION ON THU. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED POP-UP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEATURE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS 80-85F IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. THE DRIER WEATHER SHOULD ALLOW FOR STREAMS,
CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THU...A STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AT KPOU, THE STEADIEST RAIN
IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITE BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS REMAINING MIXED
IFR/MVFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX. SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHC
TSRA. MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ041>043-048>054-
058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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