268  
FXUS61 KALY 100233  
AFDALY  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY  
933 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD  
AIR, AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW  
NIGHT WITH FAIR, DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING  
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE  
CAPITAL REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EST...SOLID CANOPY OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN  
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, TO A POSITION  
AROUND OR JUST NORTH OF I-90 AS OF 930 PM. THESE CLOUDS ARE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST  
ONTARIO, AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THESE CLOUDS MAY TEND TO BREAK UP  
AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, BUT STILL HAVE PUSHED FAR  
ENOUGH SOUTH TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS JUST NORTH  
OF ALBANY LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF A  
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL  
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS AREAS FROM AROUND ALBANY SOUTH AND  
EAST.  
 
THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOISTURE STARVED, AND WILL MOVE FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LIKE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  
AN EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS, CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES,  
AND THERMAL FIELDS INDICATED WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT, LIMITED  
MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW H800/H850 WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ALOFT  
AND A PREDOMINANT PTYPE OF SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE ICE  
WILL BE LOST IN THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS (PATCHY  
FREEZING DRIZZLE), BUT INDICATIONS ARE FOR ONLY ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE KEPT A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK  
VALLEY, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. THUS FAR WE  
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND SO  
WILL CONTINUE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LIMITED AREA.  
 
THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR  
TEMPS TO FALL -8C TO -12C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY  
NORTH BY DAYBREAK, AND -4C TO -7C SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.  
LOWS WILL FALL BACK MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH A FEW LOWER  
TEENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, AND A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY  
SUNNY CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE  
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOCATIONS THAT MAY STAY UNDER  
INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENCE CLOUDINESS WILL BE WEST OF THE HUDSON  
RIVER VALLEY SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS, WEST-CENTRAL  
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL  
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE MAJOR VALLEY AREAS, AND  
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THESE TEMPS WILL  
RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL.  
 
MON NIGHT...MAINLY DRY, COLD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED,  
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. THE MID  
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL, AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN  
STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH  
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH  
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT  
READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.  
 
TUE-TUE NIGHT...WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OCCURS WITH A  
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE H500 SHORT-WAVE AND CLIPPER LOW ON TUE.  
THE SHORT-WAVE DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND  
TOWARDS UPSTATE NY BY THE MID TO LATE PM. WE LEANED CLOSER TO  
THE SLOWER GFS/EC TIMING COMPARED TO THE NAM. A SLIGHT TO LOW  
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS  
BEFORE NIGHT-TIME. ONCE AGAIN, THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED.  
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER  
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME MID 30S IN THE MID-  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT WHERE SOME MID  
30S ARE POSSIBLE. THE CLIPPER LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT SWING  
ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF  
COLD ADVECTION AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE  
CAPITAL REGION, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES NORTH  
AND WEST. A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMS OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN DUE TO UPSLOPE AND SOME LAKE MOISTURE BEING TAPPED FOR  
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION OCCURS  
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE MID TEENS TO  
LOWER 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC, WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES  
OFF-SHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND. A RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN  
ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGING ALOFT BY  
LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE HIGH IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH  
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS  
MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH.  
 
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH  
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EVENING.  
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, AS A MEAN  
RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL  
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THIS TIME, BUT THEN DIVERGE  
WHEN A STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
REGION LATE FRIDAY.  
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THIS  
SYSTEM IS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AND AFFECTS OUR REGION MAINLY FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES RESULT FROM HOW  
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE NORTHERN STREAM  
WAVE, WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE STORM TRACK, DURATION OF  
PRECIPITATION, AND THERMAL PROFILES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A  
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AND TRACK THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW  
OVER OUR REGION. THIS WOULD IMPLY A WARMER AND SLOWER SOLUTION.  
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS INDICATING INTERACTION WITH A NORTHERN STREAM  
SHORT WAVE, RESULTING IN COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. STILL,  
THIS SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM IN GENERAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT QPF. DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL TEMPS AT ONSET OF PRECIP,  
THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AND  
SHELTERED VALLEY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MOST OF THE EVENT  
WILL FEATURE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ALSO, AS COLDER AIR  
FILTERS BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD  
EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS, WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX IN VALLEYS.  
 
STRONG SE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF  
THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES, WITH USUAL FAVORED AREAS IN A SE FLOW  
REGIME EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR  
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. HYDRO ISSUES MAY ARISE IF SUFFICIENT  
RAINFALL/RUNOFF OCCURS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR RIVER TRENDS AS THE  
EVENT NEARS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS,  
ALTHOUGH SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 3500 FT AGL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
KGFL AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MAINLY BE SCATTERED AT KALB/KPSF.  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL  
ALSO PREVAIL FROM AROUND KALB SOUTHWARD. ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL  
TEND TO SCOUR OUT MONDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  
 
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT, BECOMING  
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.  
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE ALY HSA, WHERE  
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY  
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY, AND ALSO LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL  
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THURSDAY.  
DAILY MEAN AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAINING MAINLY BELOW FREEZING  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW ICE TO FORM AND THICKEN ON  
AREA STREAMS, CREEKS, RIVERS, AND LAKES. NO HYDROLOGICALLY  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF  
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AND THE EVOLUTION  
OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES AT LEAST  
AN INCH OR SO OF QPF IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO  
SERVICE AREA WITH RAIN THE DOMINANT PTYPE. HOWEVER, SOME MIXED  
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SLEET AND SNOW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT  
DURING THE ONSET ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL  
REGION. INCREASED FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS  
THIS WEEKEND.  
 
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES, INCLUDING  
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS, PLEASE  
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS  
ON OUR WEBSITE.  
 

 
   
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
MA...NONE.  
VT...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...WASULA  
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA  
SHORT TERM...WASULA  
LONG TERM...JPV  
AVIATION...JPV  
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA  
 
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