213
FXUS61 KALY 080610
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. ALSO,
INCREASED WIND GUSTS TODAY, AND LOWERED DEW POINTS EACH OF THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 2:10 AM EDT...CURRENT GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY. THIS UPPER
LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SURFACE TEMPS, COOLING ALOFT,
AND THE LEFT EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK HAVE ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARDS INTO OUR REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE
NUMEROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE WAS
MORE EMBEDDED CONVECTION OFF TO OUR WEST, AND WE HAVE SEEN A
FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES OVER THE SOUTHERN ADKS EARLIER TONIGHT,
BUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDER LOOK LOW. THIS INITIAL BATCH SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY DUE TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AND A COUPLE
OF ADDITIONAL UPPER SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS
WHERE WESTERLY UPSLOPE WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LIFT. IT WILL ALSO
BECOME QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KT, STRONGEST
WHERE FLOW IS CHANNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. WE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED
UP WINDS QUITE A BIT FROM THE NBM IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS.
SHOWER CHANCES GENERALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL LAKE/UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
TOMORROW OVER THE ADKS/SOUTHERN GREENS AS WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE LIGHT, WITH LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
WILL STILL SEE BREEZY W/NW WINDS, ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT,
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ALREADY ENDED THERE. THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BENEATH AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE, SO WE SHOULD SEE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO
CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL FALL
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF WILL TRACK TOWARDS
OUR REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE
RUNNING INTO UPPER RIDGING AND THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST.
THERE ARE PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HAVE
OUR ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
APPRECIABLE RAIN IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-90. GIVEN VERY DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE GOING ON CLOSE TO
2 WEEKS WITHOUT APPRECIABLE RAIN), ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE
VERY BENEFICIAL. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >1" CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM <10% ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 30% NEAR I-84,
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR >2" UNDER 5% AREA-WIDE. THEREFORE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAIN DESPITE ITS
TROPICAL ORIGINS. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM W/NW TO
E/SE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME TUE/WED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO
THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 1:30 AM EDT, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR
VSBYS AND CIGS AT ALB/POU/PSF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAN'T
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME MIST AT GFL ONCE THE SHOWERS END, BUT CHANCES
FOR THIS ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THESE LOOK LESS NUMEROUS THAN THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION RIGHT NOW. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
(EXCEPT LOCALLY 10-15 KT AT ALB). WINDS VEER TO THE SW STILL AT 5-10
KT AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING, THEN ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT (STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF)
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS
AFTER SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LLWS WITH W/SW WINDS OF 30-40
KT AT 2000 FT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
COLUMBUS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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