384
FXUS61 KALY 291901
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 5 AM EST...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. FOR MONTGOMERY
COUNTY, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM
WARNING AS REPORTS OF AT LEAST 0.4 INCHES OF FLAT ICE HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AND LIVE WEBCAM IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW ICY CONDITIONS
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN ALBANY,
SCHOHARIE, AND SCHENECTADY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM FOR ICY CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PREVIOUS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WHERE GUSTS CAN
EXCEED 40 MPH FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES. THUS,
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BERKSHIRES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK IS STILL ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER, VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO ICY SURFACES.
2. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE DOWNED TREES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
3. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 4
INCHES ACROSS HERKIMER AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2 AM EST...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT FOR LOCATIONS
STILL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS FIRST WITH LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET
ALREADY IN THE MID-30S. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING TO ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN TO
TRANSITION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY,
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN THIS MORNING. TRAVEL WILL
BE DIFFICULT THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF ALBANY,
PRIMARILY FOR ANY UNTREATED PAVEMENT SURFACES AS ICY CONDITIONS
EXIST DUE TO THE FREEZING RAIN. ALLOW YOURSELF EXTRA TIME THIS
MORNING IF YOU MUST TRAVEL. REMEMBER WITH ICE AND SNOW, TAKE IT
SLOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS AIR TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN
30 AND 50 MPH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE MOHAWK
VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT, NORTHERN
TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BASED ON LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES AND LATEST NATIONAL BLEND
OF MODEL (NBM) PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ARE OVER 75%. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE AT THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN WHETHER NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY REACHES HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY REACHES WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS, A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY AND WIND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOCATIONS LISTED ABOVE. NEVERTHELESS, IT
WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IMPACTS INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES CAN BE KNOCKED
DOWN, AND UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. DIFFICULT
TRAVEL COULD OCCUR FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONTINUOUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IMPACTING
HERKIMER, HAMILTON, FULTON, AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FOR SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK THAT
REACH INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST IN CONFIDENCE FOR GREATER
THAN 4 INCHES IN 72 HOURS (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GREATLY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS SET UP AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME ON WHERE EXACTLY IN HERKIMER COUNTY THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. IMPACTS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW AND SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS EXITED TO OUR EAST BUT
A COLD FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL USHER IN
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE WINDS TURN BREEZY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE SPOTTY NATURE OF SHOWERS, DID NOT INCLUDE
SHOWERS IN THE LATEST TAF UPDATES AT GFL, ALB AND POU BUT
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT PSF WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN
SUPPORT BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, IFR CIGS AT GFL AND PSF IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY 21 UTC OR SO. VFR CIGS CONTINUE TONIGHT OUTSIDE
OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTEND INTO ALB AND PSF MAINLY 06 - 10
UTC WHERE IFR/MVFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS CAN OCCUR.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFT TO THE
WEST BY 21 - 00 UTC BECOMING SUSTAINED 10-18 KT WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LOOKS TO
PREVENT GUSTS FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG AT ALB, GFL AND POU UNTIL
12 - 15 UTC WHEN THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
EXPECTING GUSTS TO REACH 30 TO 45KTS, STRONGEST AT PSF.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-
058>061-063>066-082.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ033-042-043-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-047-082.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR VTZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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