373
FXUS61 KALY 131045
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DRIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS, THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO MAKE ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO A
SHORTER WINDOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THAT SAID,
WHILE GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS SHORT A LEAD TIME
ERRS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED, NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(25-40% PROBABILITY OF THUNDER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT).
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. GREATER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, UPPER-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN GREENS, AND
NOW A SMALL PORTION OF BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAVE
THEREFORE BEEN REDUCED TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). SEVERE
WORDING WAS THEREFORE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS WITHIN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WE ALSO
ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ALL AREAS INTO SUNDAY'S
WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) A REPRIEVE FROM THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HEAT COMES IN TIME FOR
THE NEW WORK WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS. AND WHILE WE START OFF ON A DRY NOTE MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME FOR THE
MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BRING A NICE BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY, BEFORE PROBABILITIES FOR BOTH INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW. AND, COURTESY OF DRYING CONDITIONS BOTH FROM THE HIGH
AND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WE'LL ALSO GET A BREAK FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT. THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER
80S, IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE GIVEN DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TOMORROW, A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S WITH POCKETS NEAR 90 IN VALLEY AREAS.
DEWPOINTS MAXIMIZING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WON'T BE
SUFFICIENT TO POSE A RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES, BUT CONTINUE
TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, APPLY SUNSCREEN IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS, AND HAVE A PLAN TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT
IN A COOLED LOCATION. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD STILL POSE THE
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WHO ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE, IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
WHILE TOMORROW WILL START OUT DRY, THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE, INCREASES
BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. A POTENT, DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A CLOSED, UPPER LOW WILL DIG
THROUGH THE UPPER- MIDWEST TOMORROW MORNING, ENTERING THE OHIO
VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS LOOK TO
DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDING A PRIMARY
LOW AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. THE COMBINED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THE ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE, SURFACE LOWS, AND COLD FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
THAT SAID, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
PARTICULARLY PERTAINING TO THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
RESULTING THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION FOR TOMORROW, WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND EVEN SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATING
A DELAYED PASSAGE OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THERE
IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT WE WON'T HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS. THAT SAID, THIS COULD BE A LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION (<1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR) WHEREIN JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PAIRS WITH HIGH VALUES OF
SHEAR TO TRIGGER SOME STRONG, ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT ALLOW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE STRENGTH. GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION (0-6 KM
MEAN WIND ~30KT), STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, HIGH PRECIPITATION
CONTENT, AND STEEP PRESSURE CHANGES THERE CERTAINLY IS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
TOMORROW. BUT WHETHER STORMS CAN PRODUCE SEVERE MAGNITUDE GUSTS
IS GOING TO DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE AVAILABLE ENERGY TO TRANSFER
THAT MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
THREAT CLOSELY OVER THE COMING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPLETE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, DRYING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE WILL ENSURE A DRY START
TO THE WORK WEEK WITH ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S BEFORE A SLIGHT
INCREASE BRINGS US CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGHS THEN WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH POCKETS NEAR 80 IN THE
LOWER MID-HUDSON VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY AROUND 15 - 18 UTC
BECOMING SUSTAINED 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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