757
FXUS61 KALY 201027
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT
FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO DECREASE. ALSO, SEVERE THREAT HAS
SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, WITH ANY MARGINAL RISK AREA
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF PRECIP FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY WITH
INCOMING COLD FRONT. A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, WESTERN MA AND NW CT LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
2) A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING, DURATION
AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCOMING COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL
TODAY. CLOSER TO I-84 INCLUDING THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN
TACONICS, NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES, THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (MU CAPE GENERALLY 500-750 J/KG) FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, OVERALL LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90, THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH A COUPLE OF
PASSING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD LINGER INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTH OF I-90, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT CLOSE TO I-84, WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS BEFORE
ENDING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. IN FACT, LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, MOHAWK VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHER VT. AS OF MAY 21, THE
GROWING SEASON WILL BE UNDERWAY IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH OTHER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MAIN COMPLICATION STEMMING FROM DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA, ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES, A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MAY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, LIMITING THE
NORTH/EAST EXTENT OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
FOR A PORTION OF MONDAY. SHOULD THE AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENT
FLOW HOLD ON LONGER, AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY COULD REMAIN
DRY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE A WEAKER
CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW (AND MORE PROGRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM
SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH) COULD RESULT IN A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 6:25 AM EDT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WITH
SHOWERS IS AT POU THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT PLENTY
OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE COLD FRONT
LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN AT POU TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THESE SHOWERS.
WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT FROM THE W/SW EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT, STRONGEST AT ALB/PSF. GUSTS GENERALLY SUBSIDE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET, WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AT 5-
10 KT. AFTER 06Z, WINDS SWITCH TO THE N/NE, STILL AT 5-10 KT,
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/24
AVIATION...35
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