304  
FXUS61 KAKQ 240135  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
935 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 935 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
CI CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE  
NIGHT...OTW NEAR CALM AND NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.  
LOWS IN THE L-M50S INLAND TO THE U50S AT THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURS AHEAD OF THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE  
AND SFC TROF WELL AHEAD OF BETA'S REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER, MODELS  
ARE SHOWING PCPN DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MTS AND ENCOUNTERS  
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT SHOW A  
HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE 70S.  
 
LATEST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN SHIELD FARTHER NORTH WITH  
RESPECT TO THE LEFTOVER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BETA. DATA NOW SHOWS  
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING TROF THEN SPREADS EAST AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHC POPS (HIGHEST IVOF AVC) AFTER MIDNITE.  
SLGHT CHC TO THE NE. QPF BY 12Z LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. LOWS IN  
THE MID 50S-LWR 60S.  
 
COMBO OF INCREASING PW'S AND RATHER DECENT LIFT WILL RESULT IN ANTHR  
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS THE SYSTM MOVES EAST  
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE DATA SHOWS THE LOW ACTUALLY WEAKENING,  
IT ALSO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS IT TRACKS EAST. IN  
FACT, INSITU-WEDGE APPEARS TO DVLP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH SOME  
POCKETS OF MDT RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA. THUS, INCREASED POPS  
TO LIKELY, EXCEPT FOR THE LWR MD ERN WHERE HIGH CHC POPS REMAIN.  
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID-UPR 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE  
LWR 70S ALONG THE COAST. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF  
I64 IN A DAY3 ERO. QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1/2-1 INCH IVOF THE I64 CORRIDOR  
RANGING TO BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I85.  
 
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE SE COAST FRI EVE, THEN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT  
RAIN AFTER MIDNITE. OTW, CLOUDY WITH LOW IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.  
TROF LINGERS ALONG HE COAST SAT. ANY SHWRS GRADUALLY MIGRATE TOWARDS  
THE COAST AND END ACROSS THE WEST. SOME PARTIAL SUN IS PSBL IN THE  
AFTRN AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID-  
UPR 70S. PT CLDY/DRY SAT NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
A SFC TROF SETS UP ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A SERIES  
OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR  
WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE PCPN  
(EVEN WITH THE FRONTS). ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME, WILL  
CARRY LOW CHC POPS (20%-30%) EACH DAY. HIGHS SUN/MON/TUES IN THE UPR  
70S-LWR 80S. LOWS SUN NITE 65-70. LOWS MON/TUES NITE IN THE MID 50S-  
MID 60S. HIGHS WED IN THE UPR 60S-LWR 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z/24 TAF FORECAST PERIOD  
AS HI PRES SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY THU. EXPECT AN INCREASE  
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB  
TONIGHT, THEN SW AOB 10 KT THU. LO PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS  
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS LOWER AS SHRAS OVERSPREAD THE  
AREA. HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE SAT-SUN WITH ONLY A LOW CHC OF  
SHRAS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 1 FT. SCAS REMAIN  
IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS. SEAS ARE 4-6  
FT AND CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. SCA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON  
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST.  
 
THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BETA WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE WEST  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
WINDS WILL BE S 10-15 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS  
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY BECOME NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
LOW PRESSURE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE RETURNING TO AN  
OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3FT, AND WAVES IN THE BAY 1-  
2 FT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
WARNING EXPIRED AT SEBRELL AS IT FELL BELOW FLOOD STATE LATE THIS  
MORNING. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AT FRANKLIN.  
 
SEE FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ AND WEATHER.GOV/AKQ FOR MORE SITE-SPECIFIC  
INFORMATION.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-  
654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MPR  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...MPR  
LONG TERM...MPR  
AVIATION...ALB/MPR  
MARINE...CP/TMG  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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