079
FXUS61 KAKQ 161931
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- TRENDED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105+ LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN ALOFT INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT POTENTIALLY BECOMES SURFACE-BASED OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY, REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
2) HOT AND VERY HUMID SATURDAY AS THE SMOKE GRADUALLY DISSIPATES,
WITH HEAT HEADLINES PROBABLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY, AND LIKELY CONTINUE/REDEVELOP SUNDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN ALOFT INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT POTENTIALLY BECOMES SURFACE-BASED OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY, REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WAVES OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES OVER WEST-CENTRAL ONTARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO GET FUNNELED SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE SMOKE IS LESS DENSE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S,
HEAT INDICES ARE ABOVE 100F FOR MOST, WITH SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
OF 105+ ACROSS EAST CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE DEW
PTS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A SHORT
FUSED HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THAT IT IS MID JULY AND NOT PARTICULARLY
WIDESPREAD. HAVE MAINTAINED HAZE WORDING IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND RRFS DEPICT SOME
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PUSHING ESE FROM
SOUTHERN PA, AND POTENTIALLY BRUSHING THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS
EVENING. WHILE THIS REMAINS A LOW- PROBABILITY SCENARIO, A 20%
POP STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
OVERNIGHT, AS THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH, THE
HRRR/RRFS SFC-BASED SMOKE PLUMES SHOW REDUCED VSBYS MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AFTER ~06Z, AND SPREADING INTO
SOUTHERN VA BY 09-12Z. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING WELL
TODAY ACROSS MI/NORTHERN OH/PA WHERE VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY 2SM OR
LESS IN SMOKE. SINCE THIS WILL BE OF HIGHER IMPACT THAN SMOKE
ALOFT, HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF "SMOKE" IN THE
PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. AS WE SEE A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
BOTH VERTICALLY- INTEGRATED AND SFC- BASED SMOKE, HAZE AND SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SMOKE APPEAR LIKELY , ALONG WITH POOR
AIR QUALITY. EXPECT TO HAVE ADDITIONAL AIR QUALITY ALERTS IN
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY,
PERHAPS BY A LOT DEPENDING ON THE SMOKE CONCENTRATION. LOWER DEW
PTS FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL SO HEAT INDICES SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST, WITH 100-105 POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING ALONG THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH AND RIDING ALONG THE WEAKENING RIDGE COULD
CONCEIVABLY MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC
BEFORE WEAKENING, BUT CHANCES ARE AGAIN VERY LOW. KEPT POPS AT
20%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND
BECOME SHUNTED TO A POSITION OFF THE SE US COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, AS UPPER TROUGHING RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS. AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND, IT WILL
SEND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA THIS
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONT WILL BECOME HUNG UP AND LINGER ACROSS
OUR AREA INTO MONDAY.
WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS, THE UPPER FLOW TURNING WNW-NW
OVER A HOT, INCREASINGLY HUMID, AND MOISTURE-POOLED BOUNDARY
LAYER (PWS INCREASING AOA 2") WILL SET UP A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURSTS.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A HOT, MUGGY, HIGH-DCAPE SETUP
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR
FLOOD PRONE AREAS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RESPECTABLE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE FOR SATURDAY.
THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS, AGAIN
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER SUPPORT. IT IS LIKELY THAT
DUE TO WEAKENING SHEAR, THE MAIN THREAT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SAGGING/WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, AND HAMPTON ROADS HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH A MARGINAL
RISK IN THE LATEST DAY 4 ERO FROM WPC.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S, POTENTIALLY
THE UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS, ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. HEAT
INDICES SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH 105F+ FOR MOST OF THE AREA
GIVEN CONVECTION NOT BEING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE,
HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY, WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED 110+ ACROSS INTERIOR SE ZONES. NOT AS HOT SUNDAY
(THOUGH STILL VERY WARM AND HUMID), WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S, WITH STORMS REDEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE SVR
THREAT WILL TEND TO BE LOWER BUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY. GRADUALLY TRENDING COOLER NEXT WEEK, WITH DIMINISHING
POPS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING (BUT WITH LOCALIZED
MVFR VSBYS IN HZ). A SLIGHT CHC FOR EVENING TSTMS AT SBY, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR EVEN PROB30 GROUP IN THE TAF.
AREAS OF SFC-BASED SMOKE ACROSS PA AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED REDUCED VSBYS IN SMOKE
(FU) AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ECG. WINDS SHIFT FROM LIGHT S-SW TO
THE NE EARLY FRIDAY, BUT GENERALLY STAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT.
OUTLOOK: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER SAT
AFTN (HIGHEST AT RIC/SBY), GRADUALLY SPREADING SE SAT NIGHT.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE W/ DAMAGING WINDS AND IFR-
LIFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES E-NE 10-15 KT BEHIND A WEAK
BOUNDARY FRIDAY WITH SMOKE LIKELY REDUCING VISIBILITY.
- POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN ELEVATED
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONT.
A WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE FROM THE W AND SW AROUND 5 KT. WAVES AND
SEAS ARE 1 AND 2 FT, RESPECTIVELY. WINDS BECOME S OR SSW 10-15
KT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD VERY LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
N AND NE AROUND 10 KT BY SUNRISE. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY, BECOMING E 10 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SMOKE FROM
WILD FIRES IN ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED AND
PORTIONS OF AREA WATERS COULD APPROACH THE 1 NM CRITERIA FOR A
MARINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. S
AND SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
IN THE CHES BAY/LOWER JAMES RIVER AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30
KT OFFSHORE (HIGHEST N AND FARTHER OFFSHORE). WAVES IN THE BAY
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 2-4 FT AND SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT N AND
3-5 FT S DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES FRIDAY.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SWELLS MAY ALSO
REQUIRE A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
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