309
FXUS61 KAKQ 082101
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE, WITH SNOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. VERY COLD
TUESDAY MORNING, THEN TURNING MILDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOW END SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SE VA, WITH ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT THE MD EASTERN SHORE.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES INLAND SFC LOW PRESSURE WEAKENING
TO A TROUGH, WHILE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SE COAST DEEPENS.
PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
VA THIS AFTN, WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING 3-5" ACROSS THIS REGION.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS PUSHING ESE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, AND
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" (LOCALLY HIGHER) OF SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE VA AND NE NC BEFORE ENDING. THERE STILL
ALSO MAY BE AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC
THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT DECIDED TO STICK W/ ADVISORIES FOR NE
NC GIVEN THAT NO SNOW HAS FALLEN THUS FAR. IN TERMS OF HEADLINES:
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TIL 6PM BUT WILL BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.
VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS WELL WEST OF I-95 WITH UPPER TEENS/LOWER
20S FOR MOST, AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND WINDS DROP
OFF BY TUE AM, SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO BE MUCH BELOW
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY, BUT
STAYING COLD WITH MOST INLAND AREAS LIKELY NOT WARMING OUT OF
THE 30S, WITH LOW 40S IN THE SE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN TURNING
COOLER AGAIN THURSDAY.
NOT AS COLD TUE NIGHT (BUT STILL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST),
THEN TURNING MILDER WED AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA, WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WED, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. A A LITTLE COOLER
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
- TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY, WITH LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
- DRY, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME REMAINS COLDER THAN AVERAGE, WITH
LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. PRECIP POTENTIALLY CHANGES OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY
AND COLD AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES SAT, ONCE AGAIN
USHERING IN COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE N. HIGHS BY SUNDAY-
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 30S N WITH LOWER 40S S.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY...
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT RIC/PHF, STILL MVFR AT ORF, BUT
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO THE EVENING. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE
ECG HAVE A PERIOD OF IFR WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS
EVENING. SBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH JUST A CHC FOR A SNOW
SHOWER. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY VFR AFTER
06Z. NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS AND VFR ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR TUE NIGHT, THEN WINDS BECOME SW AND BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER FRIDAY, BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND, INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN THE
REMAINING WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS TOMORROW FOR LINGERING SEAS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING DEGRADED MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED WINDS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND ELEVATED WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT, COMBINED
WITH GOOD CAA, HAS LED TO WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND BAY, WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KTS
AND GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SEAS HAVE
RAPIDLY BUILT TO 6-9 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH HIGHEST SEAS
BEING MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE NE WIND
DIRECTION. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE BUILT TO 2-5 FT (HIGHEST AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY).
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE, AND
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE. GALES AND WIND-DRIVEN SCAS
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS REPRIEVE FROM
WINDS WILL BE FLEETING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE IN-HOUSE PROBS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR WIND GUSTS >=34 KTS RANGE BETWEEN 50% TO NEAR 90% (HIGHEST
FARTHER OFFSHORE BETWEEN 15-20 NM). PROBS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34
KTS OR GREATER REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, MAXING OUT AROUND 15% IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS. A GALE WATCH FOR A MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF GALE-
FORCE GUSTS, THOUGH SW FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR GALES
PANNING OUT AS EXPECTED. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LIFTS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE
LOCAL WATERS.
DESPITE AN EXPECTED DOWNTREND IN WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN WITH THE
SECOND WIND SURGE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS CURRENTLY UNDER A GALE WARNING
FOR SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS SEAS OF 5 FT OR GREATER ARE
STILL EXPECTED. SEAS OF 3-4 FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY OF 2-3 FT ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL START TO BUILD WITH THE
SECONDARY WIND SURGE ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL SHIFT TO A WSW DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST WAVE
HEIGHTS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS (MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 8FT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS) AND 3-4 FT IN THE
BAY. SEAS WILL DROP BRIEFLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRENDING UPWARDS AGAIN BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ084-
086-095>100-525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ048-062-065-085-509>512-517-518-520.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
061-066>069-079>083-087>090-092-093-513>516-523-524.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ064-
075>078-519-521-522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-
652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...JKP/NB
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