807
FXUS61 KAKQ 280202
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1002 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
FRIDAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO HOT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC, CAUSING SW FLOW ALOFT AND
A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED NEAR/ JUST N OF THE VA/NC
STATE BORDER. SLOW-MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
MAINLY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW, THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL JUST TO OUR W-NW OF THE US-15 CORRIDOR. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK COVERGENCE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING JUST
NW OF RIC AT THIS HOUR, AND THE PAST FEW RUNS OF CAMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME SCATTERED STORMS PUSHING ACROSS OUR NW TIER OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS (APPROXIMATELY CUMBERLAND TO
ASHLAND TO TAPPAHANNOCK), AND HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 40-60%
RANGE IN THIS AREA, HIGHEST WESTERN SECTIONS. MINIMAL IF ANY
SEVERE THREAT LEFT OVER, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH, SOME VERY LOW POPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS FAR SE COUNTIES ALONG THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND.
THE BOUNDARY DROPS SE TONIGHT AND SETTLES INTO INTERIOR SE VA
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY, BUT REMAINS RATHER
DIFFUSE. THERE IS A STRENGTHENING JET CORE OVER NEW ENGLAND, BUT
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WELL THE RRQ OF THIS
FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z HREF
CONTINUES TO A DECENT SIGNAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH A CONTOUR OF A 30% CHC OF 3"/3HR ACROSS
EASTERN/SE VA AND NE NC TO THE RICHMOND/TRI-CITY METRO AREAS.
WPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SLIGHTLY
NORTH, NOW COVERING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT TOMORROW, BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE, WITH 20-25 KT OF SW
FLOW ALOFT. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. POPS ARE NOW 50-70% FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA AFTER 2 PM INTO THE EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH ONLY LOW POPS OVER
INTERIOR SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC.
SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND NUDGING UP TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F (MID 80S AT THE COAST) SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
HOT CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK AS A 1.5-2.0 ST DEV 500MB
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARILY 19-21C IN THE 12
Z/27 EPS/GEFS, WITH SIMILAR VALUES IN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z ECMWF.
THIS ALONG WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE EVEN HOTTER, BUT
REMAINS AN OUTLIER. IF THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED THAT
WILL MEAN DEEPER MIXING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F DURING PEAK HEATING. REGARDLESS, THIS WOULD
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOWER 100S. A DEVELOPING NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 40N/50W MAY CAUSE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE BREAK DOWN/RETROGRADE LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THURSDAY
LIKELY REMAINS QUITE HOT AS WELL. MAINLY DRY WITH POPS NEAR TO BELOW
CLIMO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY NOT
RETURN UNTIL THURSDAY ONCE NW MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 00Z/28 TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NW OF THE KRIC TERMINAL EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 08-10Z THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY ALONG THE
COAST, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AT RIC TOWARD
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SATURDAY.
BRIEF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS.
TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY VFR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK
FRONT BRIEFLY MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH S AND SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. SE WINDS INCREASE MODESTLY INTO THE 10-15 KT
RANGE AND BECOME S INTO THE EVENING. A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TRANSITION TO SSW OR SW AND
DECREASE TO 5-10 KT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WAVES/SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS CORES TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COLD OR DRY ADVECTION, NOT EXPECTING N/NW WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KT.
WAVES WILL MAINLY HOLD IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES
DUE TO NEARSHORE WAVES BUILDING TO 3 FT WITH A 8-9 SECOND DOMINANT
PERIOD. EXPECT LOW RIP RISKS TO RETURN FOR ALL BEACHES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC/MAM
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...RHR
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