595
FXUS61 KAKQ 180757
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING,
WITH COOL DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SE COAST, WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE A BIT TO
THE EAST, FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST REGION, AND THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING NNW WINDS RATHER STRONG
AND GUSTY NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW MOSTLY RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WELL INLAND, WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
EXPECT MINS TO FALL ANOTHER 3-5 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TODAY, BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS FLORIDA, AND RIDGING NNE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VA LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A BIT
GUSTY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC WHERE GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH PREVAIL, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH FARTHER
INLAND. MAINLY SUNNY, AND TURNING WARMER BY AFTN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND. NEAR THE COAST,
IT STAYS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT
WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY WITH MIN RH VALUES ~30% NEAR THE COAST,
AND 20% (POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER) WELL INLAND. HOWEVER, WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHTER WINDS AT PEAK HEATING LATER IN THE
DAY, NO THERE ARE NO FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PLEASANT WEATHER MID WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS RETURNING.
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
ON WED, THE WIND INCREASES OUT OF THE S-SE TO AROUND 10 MPH
INLAND, WHILE REMAINING MORE ESE NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE IN THE MID 70S INLAND WITH MID 60S-LOWER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE VERY LIMITED. WITH AFTN DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S-LOWER
40S...RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 30% INLAND. OVERALL,
EXPECT MINIMAL FIRE WX CONCERNS EVEN WELL INLAND GIVEN WINDS
ONLY AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST OF THE AFTN. NOT AS COOL WED NIGHT
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING
GIVEN THE LOW DEW PTS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH THE MIDWEST WED NIGHT AND
THEN INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA LATE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT, DEW POINTS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. SO WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER, WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IN NE NC WHERE A SLIGHT CHC HAS BEEN
INCLUDED BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25" TO 0.50" ON AVERAGE, THE 00Z/18 GFS
BEING AN OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 1" IN SOME PLACES. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE THE LOWER-MID 70S SE. SHOWERS
QUICKLY EXIT THE COAST AFTER 10 PM- MIDNIGHT AT THE LATEST. LOWS
THU NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F, WITH A BRISK NW
WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- MILDER WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS
WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. THE LATEST 00Z/18 OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ~1025MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MOST INTENSE,
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING TO ~985MB BY FRI AFTN, BUT THE ECMWF AND
CMC ARE STILL RATHER STRONG. WHILE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY, POSSIBLY 40MPH+ ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE WHERE CLOSEST TO THE SFC LOW. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRI WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S LOWS FRI NIGHT AGAIN IN THE
MID- UPPER 30S. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE ALOFT AND SW SFC FLOW RETURNS. A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
SATURDAY, BUT ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY N OF THE CWA. A BETTER
CHC OF PRECIP ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST. NNW WINDS AVERAGE 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KT CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHILE DIMINISHING INLAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY GO AWAY FOR A
FEW HRS TOWARDS SUNRISE, THEN RETURN AFTER ~13Z WITH NNW GUSTS
TO 20-25KT ALONG THE COAST, AND 15-20KT WELL INLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID/LATE AFTN, WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO
5-10KT AREA-WIDE.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH A STRONG GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL AREA WATERS THIS MORNING.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY
WITH STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFF THE COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NNW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT THIS MORNING. WAVES ARE 2-5 FT IN THE CHES BAY WITH SEAS OFFSHORE
RUNNING 5-8 FT.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SCA HEADLINES END
FOR THE RIVERS AT 7AM WITH THE LOWER JAMES, CHESAPEAKE, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
FALL BELOW 5 FT SO SCAS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT SOUTHWARD. MUCH LESS WIND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL
ALLOW SOME SE SWELLS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY, SO SCA
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH 4-6 FT
SEAS S AND 3-5 FT N. THE NEXT SYSTEM AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES IN ITS WAKE. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT
IN THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISH
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. NW/OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL HELP SEAS
TO FALL OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
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