828
FXUS61 KAKQ 161919
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASED FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. STILL WARM, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX EVENT IS
POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL SUNDAY.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE SATURDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY,
BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 0.10" TO 0.20" OR LESS ON AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. STILL WARM, BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST, AND STRONG UPPER
RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO
LOCK IN A VERY WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME THIS AFTN. TEMPS ARE
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEW PTS MOSTLY IN THE
50S. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. ADDITIONAL RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON RECORDS THROUGH SAT
4/18).
LATER TONIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W, EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE HRRR DOES SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL VA, BUT MANY OF THE MODELS REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT STATUS AND THE POOR MOISTURE
RETURN, HAVE UNDERCUT THE RAIN CHANCES, CAPPING THEM AT ~40%
ACROSS THE NW, AND ONLY ~20% FARTHER SE FOR FRIDAY. THE NAM DOES
SHOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW PTS AND THEREFORE HAS ~500-750 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW- MID 80S N AND NEAR THE COAST , TO THE
MID-UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS
MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX EVENT IS
POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO APPRECIABLE
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH VA STATE FORESTRY AND NCFS YESTERDAY (WEDNESDAY), ANOTHER
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8 PM FROM
THE VA PIEDMONT TO WILLIAMSBURG AND INTERIOR SE VA. TODAY'S SPS
ALSO INCLUDES ALL OF THE PENINSULA AND SUFFOLK GIVEN THE
STRONGER SW WINDS. THE SPS ALSO INCLUDES NORTHAMPTON COUNTY,
NC. THE IFD STATEMENT ROUGHLY COVERS AREAS WHERE 20-25 MPH GUSTS
ARE CO-LOCATED WITH FORECAST MIN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 30%,
ALONG WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90F. THE WIND WILL BE LESS ON
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH
VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND
30% INLAND (HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOME ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN). WIND AND RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY WEST OF THE BAY (MIN RH OF 25-30% AND
GUSTS TO PERHAPS 15- 20 MPH). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A VERY DRY
AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. EVEN THE NBM, WHICH HAS A
HIGH BIAS WITH RESPECT TO DEW PTS, DEPICTS MIN RH VALUES AS LOW
AS 18-22% ALONG AND W OF I-95 FOR MONDAY. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE MINIMAL SUNDAY, THE COMBINATION OF A BREEZY NW WIND AND VERY
LOW RH AT LEAST GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 0.10" TO 0.20"
OR LESS ON AVERAGE.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
ONE LAST VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY (LOWER 90S
INLAND) AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AGAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUITY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A
STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE BETTER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN, THOUGH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE LAST 2 MODEL RUNS. POPS HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL (60-80%) FOR MOST OF THE
AREA (LOWEST IN THE SW). SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY,
WITH A LOW CHC OF A TSTM. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE
DAY, AFTERNOON TEMPS LIKELY DROP INTO THE 60S (OR EVEN 50S
DEPENDING ON IF/WHERE IT RAINS). THIS COULD EASILY YIELD 24 HOUR
TEMP CHANGES ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES F. ENSEMBLE PROBS OF
0.10"+ OF RAIN CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY (60- 80% ACROSS
MOST AREAS), AND ARE HIGHEST NE/LOWEST SW. WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOW 0.10-0.20" OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
GEFS/EPS/CMCE PROBS FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL IS STILL 10% OR LOWER
FOR THE REGION. MUCH COOLER WX RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY AND LOWS DOWN
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AM. FROST IS
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND NEXT TUE AM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY, AND THEN BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WED.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 18Z/16 TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING (CIGS LOWER TO 8-15KFT
AGL LATE TONIGHT AT RIC/SBY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE).
WINDS OF ~15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT THROUGH LATE AFTN, DIMINISH
TO ~10 KT TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W OR WNW EARLY FRIDAY, BUT
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY (COULD
LOCALLY SEE ONSHORE/NE WINDS AT ORF FRI AFTN). WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY S-SW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
ALONG WITH BREEZY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND N-NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AM.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
BREEZY, BUT GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST OBS INDICATE SW WINDS
OF 10 TO 15KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT. HAVE SEEN A FEW GUSTS AROUND
25KT OVER LAND DUE TO DAY TIME MIXING, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS OF 20-25KT CLOSE TO WHERE WIND IS COMING OFF THE LAND. LATEST
BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT WITH 3-4FT OFF OF SOUTHERN
CURRITUCK. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 1-2FT. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT, ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF A SURGE OVERNIGHT OUT OF
THE SW. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THIS, SO
THINKING WINDS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA. LOCAL WIND
PROBS FOR 18KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE BAY ARE 10% OR LESS. SEAS MAY
APPROACH 5FT NEAR 20NM OFF THE EASTERN SHORE, BUT OPTED OUT OF A SCA
FOR HERE AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING,
TURNING TO THE WEST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WHILE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SW, THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
NW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CAA KICKS IN. CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-25KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK
SOUND AT 15-20KT SUSTAINED. LOCAL WIND PROBS DO SHOW 50-70% PROBS
FOR 34KT+ GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, SO DEFINITELY CANNOT RULE OUT A GALE
WARNING AT THIS POINT. NW WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY
MORNING, BECOMING SUB-SCA AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
NEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET YESTERDAY, 4/15 FOR RICHMOND (93),
NORFOLK (91), AND SALISBURY (89).
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/16 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR
LOCATION 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
NORFOLK 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
SALISBURY 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/16 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR
LOCATION 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ---- ----- ------
RICHMOND 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
NORFOLK 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
SALISBURY 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
ELIZ. CITY 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-509>525-528-529.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...AJB
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