606  
FXUS61 KAKQ 220853  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
353 AM EST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY, AND  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN  
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC.  
 
- WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY  
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC.  
 
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE  
RETREATING NE OVER ATLANTIC CANADA BUT STILL RIDGING SW INTO THE  
LOCAL AREA. STILL MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGH  
CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE W. HAVE SEEN A FEW REDUCED  
VSBYS REPORTED AT ECG/PHF, BUT OVERALL THE FOG HAS BEEN  
ISOLATED/MINIMAL SO FAR. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER  
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS LOW  
PRESSURE MOVES E FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.  
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP UNDER S-SW WINDS  
(S-SE NEAR THE COAST). HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL BUT IT WILL AVG  
OUT PARTLY SUNNY AND SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY (A FEW SPRINKLES  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW LATER TODAY). TEMPS WILL RISE TO  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) EXCEPT  
EASTERN SHORE WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S  
(OR EVEN UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE ERN SHORE).  
 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT, BUT RAIN CHANCES  
GENERALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRECIP  
INITIALLY HAS DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ANY COVERAGE E OF THE  
APPALACHIANS. MILDER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER  
40S ERN SHORE TO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50F ELSEWHERE. POPS RAMP UP  
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/SE  
VA TOWARDS MORNING (WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE). HAVE TRENDED QPF  
AMOUNTS UPWARD SOMEWHAT, WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING 0.25-0.40" ACROSS THE SE, AND 0.10"-0.20" ELSEWHERE.  
DRYING OUT FROM NW TO SE FRI AFTN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE,  
WITH SOME PARTIAL AFTN CLEARING POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. REMAINING  
ABOVE AVG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY FRI NIGHT. TURNING COOLER SATURDAY.  
- LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SOUTHERN VA/INTERIOR NE NC SAT  
AFTN.  
 
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RATHER POTENT UPPER LOW PASSING  
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SAT AFTN, SHIFTING OFF TO THE SE SAT  
EVENING. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS NOT AVAILABLE SATURDAY, BUT  
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE UPPER COLD POOL FRO 20-30%  
POPS SAT AFTN TO THE S OF I-64 (HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA  
NEAR THE NC BORDER). COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO  
LOWER 50S. DRYING OUT SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM  
THE W, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS, LOWS MOSTLY RANGING THROUGH THE  
20S (LOWER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC).  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH LOW-END CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. DRY AND MOSTLY  
SUNNY SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BY SUNDAY  
NIGHT, THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT TO QUICKLY  
DAMPEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS  
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE  
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. MAINLY DRY MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING  
TUE AND WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES, LEAVING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SERIES OF WEAK  
UPPER IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS NOT A  
LOT OF FORCING INTO THE LOCAL AREA SO WILL PRIMARILY HAVE  
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA TUE-WED, WITH  
CHC POPS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S/NEAR 70F TUE  
WITH MOST AREAS INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL MON NIGHT/TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT/WED. THERE ARE  
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER IN  
THE WEEK, BUT THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE AS THIS OCCURS  
AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE WED OR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING.  
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NE NC BUT HAS BEEN MINIMAL IN  
COVERAGE THUS FAR. WILL LIKELY SEE THIS SPREAD N INTO PORTIONS  
OF INTERIOR SE VA THROUGH 12Z, ALONG WITH SOME LOW STRATUS, BUT  
THE COVERAGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE MAIN  
TERMINALS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR IN THE TAFS AT PHF AND ECG,  
BUT WILL ONLY HAVE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT ORF/RIC. OTHERWISE, WINDS  
BECOME S-SW 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 10-15KT  
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. CLOUDS  
LOWER/THICKEN TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH  
06Z/FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS  
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS  
THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR  
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC  
SATURDAY AFTN. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 315 AM EST THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 
- LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE COASTAL  
WATERS, PEAKING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN  
EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
- COLDER AIR SURGES IN ON SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN  
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS FOR A  
FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT REFRAINED FROM  
ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL SCAS NOW.  
 
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW  
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE  
EAST/NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10KT. SEAS HAVE COME UP TO 5-7FT, WITH  
WAVES OF 1FT OR LESS IN THE BAY. THANKS TO THE INCREASING SEAS AND  
SWELL CONTINUING TO BUILD TOWARDS THE COAST, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE  
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TODAY TURNING WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.  
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25KT LATER  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE BAY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE FORECAST  
REMAINING MARGINALLY WITHIN SCA WIND SPEEDS THROUGH ROUGHLY SUNRISE  
FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REACH 5-8FT WITH WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF THE  
BAY NEARING 4FT, AND 2-3FT ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, PUSHING A  
COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR  
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN, ALLOWING FOR NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO  
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AFTER A BRIEF LULL. MODELS  
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING SPEEDS AROUND 12-18KT IN THE BAY AND 16-22KT  
ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS INDICATING A 50-60% CHANCE  
OF A FEW HOURS OF 25KT GUSTS. DECIDED TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY  
ADDITIONAL SCAS AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT  
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY BEFORE DEPARTING EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. BENIGN/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WATERS  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ634-650-  
652-654-656-658.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...LKB  
SHORT TERM...LKB  
LONG TERM...LKB/MRD  
AVIATION...LKB/MAM  
MARINE...JKP/SW  
 
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