442
FXUS61 KAKQ 020605
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...
TEMPS AS OF 940 PM GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS DISSIPATING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S INLAND, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
FRI MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S.
HIGHS FRI IN THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S SE VA/NE NC).
CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM EST THURSDAY...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT
MODERATION IS EXPECTED DURING FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A LIGHT S FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE L50S
N AND NW TO THE M-U50S ELSW. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL
TO OUR NW FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ON
SAT. MILDER FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL S FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOWS FRI NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE U30S NW TO M40S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS 4 AM SAT. SHRAS
CHANCES RAMP UP FROM W-E DURING THE DAY SAT AND WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS (50-65%) ACROSS THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING...SHIFTING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL DRY OUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE FA BY
SAT EVENING/NIGHT. QPF IS NO HIGHER THAN 0.1-0.25" SAT GIVEN
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS SAT MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S-AROUND 40F.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUN-MON LOOK DRY NOW W/
SFC HI PRES RETURNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. COOLER SUN
THEN MILDER MON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS
S OF THE FA MON...MAYBE CONTRIBUTING BKN CLOUDS INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BUT POPS WILL BE HELD BLO 15%. AN ELONGATED LO PRES SYSTEM
SITUATED TO OUR NW MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WED. TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM/HOW MUCH RAIN WILL OCCUR REMAIN CHALLENGING. WILL HAVE
MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...TAPERING TO
SLGT CHC BY WED AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...DRY WX LOOKS LIKELY THU.
HIGHS SUN MAINLY IN THE U40S-L50S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE
U20S-L30S...EXCEPT THE U30S-L40S FAR SE. HIGHS MON FROM THE
L50S N AND W TO THE U50S-AROUND 50F IN SE VA-NE NC. LOWS MON
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE U30S-L40S...M40S IN COASTAL SE VA-NE NC.
HIGHS TUE GENERALLY IN THE M50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE M40S N AND NW TO THE L50S SE. HIGHS WED IN THE M-U50S
NW TO L-M60S SE. HIGHS THU MAINLY IN THE L-M50S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, BECOMING S 5-10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. REMAINING VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH CEILING BETWEEN
10,000 FT AND 20,000 FT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
FA.
MARINE
AS OF 1015 PM EST THURSDAY...
NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5-10KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
SEAS HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF TO ~4 FT FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS SO
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN
E-NE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S
LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THIS
RECENT FRONT, BUT SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL BE SATURDAY
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI
LONG TERM...ALB/ERI
AVIATION...CP/RMM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
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