225  
FXUS61 KAKQ 182316  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
616 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE  
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
QUIET WX AND CHILLY TONIGHT AS SFC HI PRES ARRIVES OVER THE LOCAL  
THIS EVENING...THEN SLIDES VERY SLOWLY TO THE COAST (WELL) AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. NNW WINDS BECOME LIGHT-VRB BY MID-LATE THIS EVENING.  
MAINLY SKC W/ LOW FROM THE M-U20S INLAND TO U20S-AROUND 30F SE  
VA-NE NC COASTAL AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED W/ DRY/SEASONABLE WX TO CONTINUE.  
WINDS BECOME LIGHT S. HIGHS MAINLY 50-55F. SOME INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES  
DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WHILE STRONG  
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO  
START...TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WED EVENING  
INTO THE M-U30S TO L40S...THEN BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS  
INCREASE AND THICKEN/LOWER.  
 
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS STAGE FOR  
THU/THU NIGHT SYSTEM. STILL APPEARS MAINLY DRY UNTIL DAYBREAK  
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THU...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN INCREASE TO  
CHC POP OVER THE SE INTO THU MORNING. DEEP-LAYERED SSW FLOW AND  
INCREASE FORCING WILL RESULT IN POPS RAMPING UP QUICKLY S-N THU  
(TO 60-90% BY AFTERNOON). WIDESPREAD RA...POSSIBLY MDT/HVY...  
IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGHEST QPF WILL ONCE  
AGAIN NEAR THE COAST (ESP SE VA-NE NC) W/ LOWER AMOUNTS INLAND  
(LIKE THE MOST RECENT EVENT THIS PAST WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...GOING  
W/ STORM TOTAL THU-THU NIGHT 1-2". TOO EARLY FOR ANY FLOOD  
WATCHES...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN HWO (FOR  
LATE THU-THU NIGHT). HIGHS THU IN THE 40S NW TO THE L60S SE.  
TEMPERATURES LARGELY STEADY OR RISING (ESP S AND E) THU NIGHT.  
 
MAIN AREA OF RA LIFTS QUICKLY NNE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI...WHILE  
SHARP TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO AL-GA. EXPECTING  
VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRI AND WARMER W/ SCT SHRAS. HIGHS  
IN THE L60S NW TO THE U60S-AROUND 70F SE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO  
EARLY SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SCT PCPN. DRYING OUT AND COOL FOR THE  
WEEKEND AS THE LO PRES DEPARTS INTO THE FAR NRN ATLANTIC. 12Z/18  
GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING BY N OF THE  
REGION MON...PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED (AT THIS POINT) COLD  
FRONT ACROSS THE FA. OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRY/SEASONABLE WX  
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE L-M40S. HIGHS HIGHS SAT 50-55F. LOWS SAT  
NIGHT IN THE L-M30S W TO THE U30S-AROUND 40F AT THE COAST. HIGHS  
SUN IN THE U40S-AROUND 50F N TO THE M50S FAR S. LOWS SUN NIGHT  
AGAIN FROM THE L-M30S INLAND TO THE U30S-AROUND 40F AT THE  
COAST. HIGHS MON AND TUE IN THE U40S N TO THE L50S S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 615 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON  
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS. CLEAR SKIES  
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 19.18Z WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS  
THEREAFTER.  
 
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE WED-THU AND WILL BRING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERED CEILINGS AND EVENTUALLY SOME FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS (CIGS AND VSBY) IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES  
BEGINNING THU AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. VFR CONDITIONS THEN  
QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
SEAS STILL 4-5 FT ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS AND 5-6 FT ACROSS  
THE SOUTH SO EXTENDED THE SCA FOR A FEW MORE HRS FOR SEAS. OTW,  
NO HEADLINES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT  
THEN OFF THE COAST WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS  
THROUGH THU.  
 
S-SE WIND BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP INTO SCA LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPRCHG  
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH THURS NITE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA'S ARE  
POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF LOWS TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND  
FRI NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SAT.  
SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL (7-10 FT), THEN BE SLOW  
TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
IN ADDITION, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP THURS  
NIGHT AND FRI AS RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERSPREAD THE COOLER  
WATER TEMPS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...  
 
FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHMOND-WESTHAM WILL BE COMING DOWN SHORTLY  
AS THE LEVEL CONTINUES TO FALL (BELOW FLOOD STAGE). WILL BE  
MONITORING THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD  
WARNING AS THE LEVEL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...ALB/RHR  
MARINE...MPR  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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