290  
FXUS61 KAKQ 181038  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
638 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING  
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG  
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW  
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
REMNANT BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED FROM NEAR THE  
MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY ON WNW TO THE NRN PIEDMONT ATTM. SLIGHT  
ONSHORE WINDS AT THE COAST/NE OF THAT BOUNDARY AND BKN-OVC ST  
FOUND FROM PORTIONS OF DE ACROSS CENTRAL MD/NRN VA. OTW...SKC W/  
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SFC BOUNDARY  
RETURNS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING W/ MOST OR ALL OF  
THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PREVIEW OF  
SUMMER FOR THE FA TODAY. WARMER NEAR THE COAST IN VA-MD TODAY AS  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...EVEN RIGHT NEAR THE WATERS OF THE  
BAY/OCEAN (THOUGH THOSE AREAS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS INLAND).  
MAINLY SCT-BKN CI TODAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE BKN ST OVER PARTS  
OF THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE TO START...AND SC HIGH BASED CU...ESP  
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...MAYBE  
A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE U70S-M80S...EXCEPT  
U60S-L70S RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 410 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
THE FIRST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/PCPN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD  
FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW LATE  
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING M THE WSW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING  
(MAINLY WEST OF I-95). REMAINING MILD TONIGHT W/ MOST LOWS  
60-65F.  
 
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS SIGNIFICANT W OF THE MOUNTAINS FRI AND  
EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF AS IT PUSHES INTO THE TN VALLEY FRI. THE  
ATTENDANT SFC LO LIFTS NE INTO THE ERN OH VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON  
W/ ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRI  
EVENING. THAT FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH E TO THE COAST FRI  
NIGHT DUE TO DEEP LAYERED S FLOW SFC-ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
HONE IN ON A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE.  
THIS INFLUX OF DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT  
PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75" (OR +2 TO +3 STD DEV) OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT, AND CAUSE A SPIKE IN SFC DEW  
POINTS. EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. QPF OF  
1-1.5" W/ THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. SPC CONTINUES  
W/ A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE FA FRI/FRI NIGHT AND  
AN ENHANCED RISK OVER THE SRN HALF (OF VA INTO NE NC).  
ADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE FA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL. HIGHS ON FRI WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 70S...U60S RIGHT  
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT, THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS  
TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED GIVEN THE FORECASTED  
CLOUD COVERAGE, BUT THAT MAY BE OVERTAKEN TO SOME DEGREE BY THE  
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE. STRONG FORCING FOR  
ASCENT WILL EXIST W/ WIND FIELD ALOFT EASILY ABLE TO SUPPORT  
DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ADDITIONALLY,  
POTENTIAL SLIGHT BACKING OF NEAR SFC/LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SE  
VA-NE NC WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FRI  
AFTERNOON...ESP IF ANY CLEARING CAN BE REALIZED.  
 
ASIDE FROM ANTICIPATED POSSIBLE HYDRO ISSUES, TIMING FOR ANY  
STRONG/SVR STORMS APPEAR TO BE LATE AFTN/EVENING (4P-8P) WEST  
OF I95, BETWEEN 8P-MIDNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I95, AND 12A-3A  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAINFALL/CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO  
MENTION FOR GUSTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION DUE TO TIGHTENING  
PRESSURE GRADIENT FRI MORNING. APPEARS OUR AREA MAY APPROACH  
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AHEAD OF STORMS FRI MORNING/AFTERNOON  
ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT IN FUTURE  
PACKAGES.  
 
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT BUT  
LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED AN UPPER LOW TO OUR W MAY LEAD TO  
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF SAT. OTW...PARTLY SUNNY  
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SAT. LOWS FRI NIGHT RANGING FROM THE M50S W  
TO THE L60S E. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE M-U60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. 20-  
40 POPS WERE PUT IN FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE  
NE, A SW FLOW WILL BEGIN AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF  
THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, THE FRONT WILL STALL AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE  
AROUND FOR TUE-WED. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A WEDGE MAY DEVELOP  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER  
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE  
40S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE. 80S WILL  
RETURN FOR MONDAY ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SW WIND.  
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT  
STALLS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S TO NEAR  
70.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 635 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
OTHER THAN SCT-BKN ST INVOF SBY POTENTIALLY UNTIL MID  
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF FORECAST  
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY  
WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS  
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE  
AREA FRI, WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS IN  
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MDT-HVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH  
STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES  
BAY ATTM W/ SFC HI PRES EXITING SE NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL  
RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AS THE SFC HI PRES SETS UP  
OFF THE COAST. ESE WINDS MAINLY AOB 10 KT TO START...THEN  
BECOMING S THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO GENERALLY 15 KT...MAYBE  
TO 20 KT LATE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND ON THE OCEAN WATERS.  
SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 5 FT THIS EVENING CAPE CHARLES VA  
ON N. SCAS EXPECTED TO START THIS EVENING ON THE NRN PORTION OF  
THE OCEAN WATERS THEN FOR THE BAY AND THE SRN OCEAN WATERS  
TONIGHT. SOLID 20-25 KT SSE WINDS EXPECTED MOST OF FRI OR BY FRI  
AFTERNOON AS SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING FROM THE W.  
 
CONCERN SHIFTS TO FRI EVENING/NIGHT AS PERIOD OF STRONG SCAS  
(SUSTAINED)...AND POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS (ESP S OF CAPE CHARLES  
VA). WIND PROBS CONTINUING TO SHOW NEAR 50% PROB FOR GALE GUSTS  
OVER FAR SRN OCEAN WATERS...THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE  
HAS SHOWN A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND FROM PAST RUNS. CONVECTION  
WILL ALSO LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY  
WINDS. WON'T EXTEND SCA PAST 00Z/20...BUT WILL ADD A GALE WATCH  
FROM 00Z-08Z/20 S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND VA (TO CURRITUCK BEACH  
LIGHT NC). WAVES/SEAS RISE AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER  
S WINDS BY FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT.  
 
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE NE.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
INCREASED S WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN  
RISING TIDAL DEPARTURES TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABOVE MLLW ON THE LOWER  
MD EASTERN SHORE ALONG THE CHES BAY (ESP CRISFIELD AND BISHOPS  
HEAD MD). MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH  
TIDE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-  
635>638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY  
FOR ANZ630>632-652-654.  
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR  
ANZ654-656-658.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-  
658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TMG  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...ALB/RHR/CP  
MARINE...ALB  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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