672  
FXUS61 KAKQ 062342  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
742 PM EDT MON APR 6 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA  
TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THAT BOUNDARY MOVES BACK  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER  
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 720 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING WITH  
THE STORMS CONTINUING TO PUSH SE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO  
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT  
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY. ADDED  
PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS  
INTERIOR VIRGINIA AND NE NC. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID  
40S ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE, TO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S  
ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
FA REMAINS UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT TUE. ANOTHER (SLIGHTLY STRONGER  
THAN TODAY'S) S/W IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE  
INTO THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON..WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE  
DIFFICULTY PULLING BACK N OF THE ENTIRE FA (NAMELY FROM THE VA  
NRN-LOWER ERN SHORE). MOIST SW FLOW S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL  
ALLOW DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE U50S-AROUND 60F BY TUE  
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE U70S-L80S. SPC HAS  
UPGRADED THE ENTIRE FA TO SLGT RISK SEVERE FOR TUE. THE HIGHEST  
PROB FOR STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD BE ONCE ISOLD/SCT  
SHRAS/TSTMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON  
BEFORE MOVING E ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VA BY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY  
EVENING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ITS TOUGH TO GET (WIDESPREAD) SVR ON  
THE ERN SHORE (THIS EARLY) DUE TO THAT AREA BEING SURROUNDED BY  
THE COOLER BAY/OCEAN WATERS. MAINTAINED POPS MAINLY FROM 25-50%  
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL/ESE VA TUE AFTERNOON-EARLY  
EVENING...TAPERING TO 15-25% ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC TO SOUTH  
CENTRAL VA. WILL HAVE BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY S WHILE REMAINING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY N AND NE TUE. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S NEAR THE  
BAY AND ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE U70S-L80S CENTRAL/SE VA TO NE  
NC.  
 
COVERAGE OF PCPN DECREASES TUE NIGHT W/ A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR  
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR A 15-35% CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NNE  
THIRD OF THE FA (HIGHEST ON THE LOWER ERN SHORE). LOWS TUE  
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S-AROUND 60F.  
 
ON WED...A SFC LO OVER THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS ACROSS PA AND EVENTUALLY  
OFFSHORE...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING  
THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. WED WILL BE MAINLY DRY SW...BUT  
ISOLD SHRAS/TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY...MAINLY  
E OF I-95 AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION (BEFORE THE BEST  
UPPER FORCING MOVES OFFSHORE AND DESPITE DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW).  
 
SPC HAS THE FA IN A MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE WX ON WED. OTW...PARTLY  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY FOR ALL AREAS. HIGHS  
IN THE 70S ON THE ERN SHORE W/ MAINLY LOW-MID 80S ELSEWHERE. THE  
WEAK BOUNDARY WASHES OUT WED NIGHT AND WINDS TURN BACK TO THE S  
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE (SFC-ALOFT) TRACKS ESE ACROSS SRN CANADA.  
THE ASSOCIATED (TRAILING) COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH  
NEAR/JUST W OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z/09. STILL DRY WED NIGHT  
W/ LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. THAT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION  
THU...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO AT LEAST ISOLD PCPN FOR N AND NE  
AREAS. OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY THU W/ HIGHS IN THE M-U70S  
N TO THE M80S OVER INTERIOR NE NC.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BRING COOLER WX TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE  
12Z/06 HINTS AT (BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT) A SYSTEM TRACKING  
ACROSS THE SE STATES WHICH MAY BRUSH SRN VA-NE NC W/ AT LEAST  
CLOUDS (FRI). OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COOLER W/ LOWS  
THU NIGHT IN THE L-M40S N AND W TO THE U40S SE. HIGHS FRI MAINLY  
IN THE M-U50S.  
 
DRY AND REMAINING COOL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. BY SUN INTO  
MON...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF A POTENTIALLY MORE  
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. RIGHT  
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...AND INCREASED CLOUDS/POPS  
SUN-MON. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE M-U30S INLAND TO THE M-U40S ALONG  
THE SE VA/NE NC COASTS. HIGHS SAT IN THE U50S-AROUND 60F N AND  
NE TO THE L-60S S. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE U30S-L40S...EXCEPT U40S  
ALONG THE COAST IN SE VA-NE NC. HIGHS SUN/MON RANGING THROUGH  
THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING.  
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SFC FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH  
FARTHER OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT A DRY NIGHT  
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY  
TUE MORNING FOG, MAINLY S/SW OF TERMINALS AS THE FRONT LIFTS  
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT-TUE. HAVE ALLOWED FOR  
SOME MVFR VSBY IN BR/MIFG GROUND FOG TUESDAY MORNING AT RIC/ECG.  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORT-LIVED LOW STRATUS AS WELL, BUT HAVE  
HELD OUT FOR NOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AT  
PHF AS WELL GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS,  
BUT WILL KEEP OUT FOR NOW, AGAIN WITH FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL  
ON THE LOW SIDE.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD, A MOIST S-SW FLOW IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE WARM  
FROPA TUE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHRAS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT TUE AFTN  
BEFORE MOVING E-SE LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING. DRY/VFR TUE NIGHT  
AT THE VA/NC TERMINALS. SHOWERS/FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST  
AT SBY FROM TUE-TUE NIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED-THU. ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS  
(AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS) ARE BOTH WED AFTERNOON (AS  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA) AND THU (W/ A MORE  
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE).  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
LATE THIS AFTN, A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE NE NC  
WATERS. WINDS WERE NNE 5-15 KT WITH ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 18 KT.  
THE ONLY HEADLINE LEFT IS A SCA ON THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS  
(658) UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING, DUE TO LINGERING 4-5 FT SEAS IN  
LONG PERIOD SWELL. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT IN NC THIS EVENING,  
THEN LIFT BACK N LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SE  
OR S AT LESS THAN 10 KT. MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE FROM TUE INTO THU MORNING, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER  
WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED WED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS  
WILL BE LATE THU THROUGH FRI, AS NW WINDS USHER A COOLER AIRMASS  
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ERI  
NEAR TERM...CMF  
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...ALB/MAM  
MARINE...TMG  
 
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