934  
FXUS61 KAKQ 180000  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
800 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM  
THE NORTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH  
THE BASE OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY  
DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT  
THE SURFACE, COOL 1032+MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED  
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND IS  
BUILDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL MILD THIS EVENING IN  
OUT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT, WITH EARLY EVENING  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S, THOUGH A FEW 40S NOW NOTED OVER  
THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.  
 
CAA WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE  
MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW MIXING,  
WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES, AND PRECLUDE FROST  
FORMATION TONIGHT, ASIDE FROM TYPICALLY PROTECTED VALLEYS IN  
THE WRN TIER PIEDMONT COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, EVEN WITH THE MILD  
START TO THE EVENING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL  
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE  
PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND MID 40S  
TO LOW 50S AT TO THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
SUNNY AND COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.  
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F, WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS  
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS ARE  
IN THE LOW/MID 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT, INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, AND  
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. SOME COLDER LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY COULD  
DROP TO 32F GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND A DRY  
AIRMASS. PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, BUT FROST COULD  
POTENTIALLY BE MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR  
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ELSEWHERE, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH MID 40S AT THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC.  
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY AFTN. MOSTLY  
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY EVENING, AND PUSHES  
ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.  
POPS ARE ~60-70% FOR SHOWERS, WITH MAINLY LIGHT QPF OF 0.25" OR  
LESS. MILDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH  
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SKY QUICKLY CLEARS OUT SAT NIGHT, AS  
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N/NW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-  
MID 40S NW TO THE LOW 50S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC.  
 
EXPECT COOL, DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, WITH  
H85 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -1C TO -4C SUNDAY AFTERNOON),  
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT. THIS  
RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ON  
SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH (NEARLY) OVERHEAD, EXPECT A COLD NIGHT  
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH MID-UPPER 30S INLAND/LOW 40S  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY  
APPROACHING A FREEZE OVER INLAND SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MON PM, ALLOWING FOR A VERY  
MODEST WARM-UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE (SFC- ALOFT)  
PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUE- WED. HOWEVER, THIS  
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FROPA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON  
MON RISING INTO THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE ON TUE, WITH MORNING LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ON TUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. REMAINING CLEAR TONIGHT  
WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER, A N WIND IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT AT ORF  
LATER TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION.  
ADDITIONALLY, SOME SC (MAINLY 4-6KFT) COULD DEVELOP NEAR/JUST  
E-NE OF PHF/ORF IN THE FORM OF BAY STREAMER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT  
AND EARLY THU. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT  
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HIGH  
PROBABILITY OF -RA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER  
CIGS/VSBY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING TOWARD THE LOCAL  
AREA FROM THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN WNW WINDS 5-15  
KT. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OH  
VALLEY TONIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS BY LATE THIS  
EVENING AS A DECENT SURGE OF CAA ENSUES. NW OR N WINDS WILL INCREASE  
TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT, LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO  
35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS  
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
TONIGHT AND 3-4 FT OVER THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP SCAS AS IS BUT WILL  
ALSO ADD IN THE UPPER JAMES RIVER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
FROM LATER THU MORNING INTO THU NIGHT, AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH  
MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE FRI  
AND FRI NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SSW WINDS OF 10-20 KT, BEFORE  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE  
NEXT SURGE OF NW WINDS 15-25 KT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE APPOMATTOX  
BASIN. AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS ACTIVE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG  
THE MATTAPONI RIVER WHERE THE LEVEL IS STILL STEADY AT  
BEULAHVILLE. SEE FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ FOR SITE-SPECIFIC DETAILS. A  
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR SEBRELL AS MINOR FLOODING IS  
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-  
634-650-652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB  
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB  
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM  
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM  
MARINE...JDM  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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