037
FXUS61 KAKQ 281852
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
252 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED TONIGHT'S LOWS A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
2) POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUN OUT
THERE TODAY, BUT IT IS ON THE CHILLY SIDE ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BREEZE. WINDS DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES PROVIDES GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, MEANING
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. DID FAVOR THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN
LIGHT OF THIS, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR
INLAND AND MORE RURAL SPOTS WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN
URBAN AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST. OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT
STARTED HERE LOCALLY QUITE YET, BUT IF YOU HAVE ALREADY PLANTED
ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS, YOU WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT THEM FROM THE FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MOVING FORWARD, WITH
LOWER 60S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY, LOWER TO MID 70S ON
MONDAY, AND LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN MILDER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING THE RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE ACTIVE AND WET FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY POTENTIALLY PUSH IN ON ITS HEELS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER. IT'S TOO
EARLY TO NAIL DOWN ANY EXACT DETAILS, BUT JUST KNOW THAT WE MAY
BECOME QUITE MESSY FOR A FEW DAYS IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PANS
OUT - MAYBE MAKING YOUR EASTER EGG HUNTS A SMIDGE MUDDY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/28 TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN
FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. NNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30KT. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND
WILL NOT PICK UP TO ~10KT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH SW FLOW
RETURNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BENIGN, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- A ROUND OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS PERSISTED AROUND 15 TO 25 KT WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WAS CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH WITH THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE BAY AND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AM, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SCAS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MIDWEEK WITH
NORTH WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY. THE STRONG WILL LIKELY STAFF OVER
THE AREA AND LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AC/JKP
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/JAO
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