113
FXUS61 KAKQ 122336
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
736 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT,
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH
MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND AT LEAST LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
IT'S A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING CLOSER (THOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE) SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TO WHAT WE SEE TODAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR BOTH DAYS, WITH THE HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION AS SOON AS TUESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT YET ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS SOON AS TUESDAY, WITH IMPACTS
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY). THIS SYSTEM
WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/EPS
REMAINS THE WETTER OF THE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE 12Z EPS TOTAL QPF MEAN
SHOWING 1+" FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN DRIER, THOUGH HAS ALSO TRENDED
HIGHER WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE INCREASED TO
THE 20-40% RANGE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACH THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
MAY BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE COASTAL SYSTEM EVOLVES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM SBY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS TARGETING SBY AREA
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT, SO HAVE DROPPED THE VIS
DOWN TO 2SM BETWEEN 08-13Z. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RIC,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW. GUSTIER WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH ORF AND ECG SEEING GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20
KTS TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY INSTANCES OF AM PATCHY FOG.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
VFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST).
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FROM TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED
NE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA TO THE GULF. ONSHORE NE/E WINDS ARE
PRIMARILY 5-10 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OFF THE
NC COAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS A WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WAVES AND SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY 1-2 FT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 2-4 FT OFF THE MD/VA
COAST. SEAS ARE MORE ELEVATED OFF THE NE NC COAST AROUND 5 FT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS OFF THE NE NC COAST WILL
BE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE UP TO A
95% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED 18KT WINDS OFF THE NE NC COAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBS FOR THE SE VA COAST
QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN NE NC
WITH 4-5 FT SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY, SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SE VA
OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED, ANOTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS (TO
POTENTIALLY 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE BAY/OCEAN) IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF ANY
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW, SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN DUE
TO SEAS. NE WINDS LIKELY RELAX A BIT BY NEXT WED/THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH AN 7-8 S PERIOD. THIS
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY WITH 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WAVES EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
DUE TO THE LAST TWO EBB TIDES BEING RATHER LARGE WITH A SMALLER
FLOOD TIDE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EBBS, THE TOTAL WATER LEVELS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. IN RESULT, HAVE
CANCELLED THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE UPPER JAMES AND YORK
RIVERS AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SE VA AS GAUGES SHOW ALL
SITES IN LOW-END ACTION STAGE OR BELOW. HOWEVER, NUISANCE TO LOW-END
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY,
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER, AND TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER WITH THE HIGH
TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS TIDE, ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE
FLOODING, MAYBE MINOR AT A FEW SITES, IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVELS, HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-083>086-518-520>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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