579
FXUS61 KAKQ 301035
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z/30 TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
2) NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER, AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH NUISANCE-
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER BAY/BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND TROUGHING OFF THE CA/WESTERN US COAST AND OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR TROUGHING TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH
SEVERAL COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION AND A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH, LEADING TO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NE TO THE
LOWER 80S S/SW. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. UPPER 40S ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WITH EVEN POCKETS OF MID TO LOWER
40S POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
CLOSER TO THE COAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
ANOTHER POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DIVES OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA MONDAY, WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CONUS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER BY ANY STRETCH, WILL
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ~0.10"-0.25" AT MOST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO HOVER AROUND 80
DEGREES INLAND AND THE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80) BEFORE A GRADUAL REBOUND TO AVERAGE
AND POTENTIALLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN
US.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
BAY, TIDAL JAMES RIVER, AND ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT, WITH NUISANCE-
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER BAY/BAYSIDE OF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH INCREASING N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WATER LEVELS WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES TONIGHT. FORECAST WATER LEVELS
0.3-0.5 FEET BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE ATTM. NO PLANS FOR ANY
STATEMENTS RIGHT NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A LOOK. WHEN WINDS
TURN TO THE S-SW SUNDAY NIGHT, NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE UPPER BAY (ESPECIALLY AT BISHOP'S HEAD AND PERHAPS
CAMBRIDGE AND CRISFIELD).
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z/30 TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT WILL CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NNE IN THE EVENING AROUND 5-10 KT (ORF/PHF/ECG COULD
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE EVENING).
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (HIGHEST IN THE SE). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND FROM TODAY-
TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT ON THE BAY.
- SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH NE WINDS FROM TUE-WED, BUT THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 8 AM AND 2 PM.
WINDS ARE SW AT 10-15 KT AT THIS HOUR WITH 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CHES BAY WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME NE AT 15-20 KT (W/
25 KT GUSTS) LATE THIS AFTN-THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15
KT TONIGHT (HIGHEST SOUTH). DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES,
AND SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES BEGINNING
AT 7 AM AND FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND BEGINNING AT 1 PM. EVEN THOUGH
FREQUENT GUSTS WILL NOT QUITE REACH SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN, 4-5
SEAS ARE LIKELY (POSSIBLY 6 FT SOUTH) LATER TODAY-TONIGHT WITH THE N
WINDS BECOMING NE. THEREFORE, KEPT THE SCAS GOING FOR THE OCEAN AS
WELL. SCAS END AT 10 PM TODAY FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND 1 AM SUN FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, LOWER BAY,
AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SCAS LINGER THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO NE WINDS ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUN, BRINGING
LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT, SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW-END SCAS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON THE BAY SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 3-4 FT BY MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE TUE-
WED NIGHT TIMEFRAME. WHILE A PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS IS LIKELY (WITH
SCAS POSSIBLE) GIVEN THE PATTERN, THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO THE
COAST WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WE SEE WINDS OF 10-20 KT OR IN THE MORE
SOLID SCA RANGE.
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AC/KMC
MARINE...ERI
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