646  
FXUS61 KAKQ 251800  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,  
BRINGING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IT REMAINS DRY  
SUNDAY, BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE  
COAST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND ELEVATED WINDS MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- COOL, MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
- NOT AS COLD TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  
 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER  
THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. IT  
REMAINS COOL, BUT PLEASANT, THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 60S (MID 60S FAR S). WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL  
SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT (MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL).  
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP INSULATE THE AREA SOME TONIGHT, SO WE  
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE  
COAST.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO  
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.  
WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AS A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN  
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA SUNDAY AM, BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CHANCES  
LIMITED. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH (MID  
60S FAR SOUTH).  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES  
INCREASE MONDAY.  
 
A CLOSED OFF UL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLANS WILL NUDGE CLOSER  
TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW TAKES FORM NEAR NOVA  
SCOTIA. STAYING DRY LOCALLY WHILE STILL UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE,  
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES  
BETWEEN THE LOWS ALOFT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE  
(RELATIVELY) THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE  
40S AND EVEN THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR SE.  
 
THE PATTERN STARTS TO COMPLICATE GOING INTO MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST  
GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UL LOW TO THE WEST WILL MELD WITH THE  
DEEPENING TROUGH FORMING TO OUR N. A WEDGE WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE  
OVER THE AREA AS A SFC LOW OR COASTAL TROUGH FORMS TO THE SOUTH AND  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL  
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH  
OF THE FORMING SFC LOW. REGARDLESS OF PATTERN SPECIFICS, MONDAY  
LOOKS LIKE A DREARY DAY WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND MAYBE  
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS S OF I-64 (15-20% POPS). HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
WEEK, BUT DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  
 
THE DREARY/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK  
WITH THE WEDGE SET UP GETTING LOCKED IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL  
SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES WITH REGARDS  
TO TRACK AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS CLEARS THE  
INITIAL LOW BY WED MORNING THEN BRINGS IN A SECONDARY SYSTEM  
LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW AN ALMOST  
IMMEDIATE FORMATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW BEFORE THE FIRST CAN  
FULLY CLEAR OUT. EITHER SOLUTION RESULTS IN THE CLOUDY, DRIZZLY  
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT  
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH RAIN WILL COME OUT OF  
THESE SYSTEMS. IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND STAYS CLOSER TO OUR  
COAST AS THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST, THE SE COULD SEE PERIODS OF  
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF ENS AS WELL,  
WHICH PUTS 1.5-2" OF RAIN IN HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BY THE END  
OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ISN'T TOO FAR BEHIND WITH 1-1.5" IN THE  
SAME SPOT, BUT MOST OF IT FROM THE SECOND SYSTEM INSTEAD OF  
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN  
AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S ON TUE FOR MOST AND THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR SE. WED-FRI  
WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR, THOUGH MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES  
WARMER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/25 TAF PERIOD. HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND  
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR  
MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWERING (STILL VFR) BY  
TOMORROW MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NNE WINDS AROUND 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOME  
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES AND SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY  
BREEZY TO WINDY NE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR AND RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL  
LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION  
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. GALE  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
- ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS LATER NEXT WEEK.  
 
1028MB HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS  
MORNING. THE WIND N TO NNW 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO  
~20KT. SEAS/WAVES ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT. THIS AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND  
STRENGTHENS TO ~1034MB. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE N TO NE  
5-10KT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND LOCALLY NE 10-15KT S OF CAPE  
HENRY BY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE  
CHES. BAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED N  
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST WITH A NE WIND  
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 10-15KT, AND 15-20KT S OF CAPE HENRY BY  
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4FT S BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH  
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY BUILDING TO 2-3FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY  
DEVELOPING S-N BY MONDAY AS A NE WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT N TO  
20-25KT S. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5FT N TO 5-7FT S, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN  
THE CHES. BAY BY LATER MONDAY AND 4-5FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE  
BAY.  
 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO A PERIOD OF STRONG  
ONSHORE (NE) FLOW DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS  
1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER QB WITH A WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. 00Z/25 EPS  
PROBS FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 34KT REMAIN QUITE HIGH  
(60-90%) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND  
CHES. BAY, AND EVEN HAS UP TO 20-30% PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 34KT  
FOR THE VA COASTAL WATERS, AND 30-40% FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS.  
LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34KT GUSTS ARE SIMILAR S OF PARRAMORE IS.,  
BUT SUSTAINED PROBS ARE LOWER. REGARDLESS, A PERIOD OF GALE  
CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
SEAS BUILD TO 7-10FT, WITH 3-5FT WAVES (5- 6FT AT THE MOUTH) IN  
THE CHES. BAY. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED MID TO LATE  
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A  
SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W AND THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, BRINGING AT  
LEAST CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER  
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB  
NEAR TERM...AJB  
SHORT TERM...AC  
LONG TERM...AC  
AVIATION...AJB  
MARINE...  
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