708
FXUS61 KAKQ 250158
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FL. THE NHC HAS NAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA NORTH OF
BERMUDA, HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA WITH NO IMPACTS TO
THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
OFFSHORE STREAMING INTO THE COAST OF EASTERN NC. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 955 PM RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S W TO THE UPPER
50S E (OUTLIERS INCLUDE UPPER 40S IN LOUISA AND MID 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST). DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT INLAND WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE WATER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. HAVE AGAIN GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 F
ACROSS THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE CWA, WITH LOW TO MID 50S TO THE
EAST (AND LOCALLY LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE SE).
ON SAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E/SE. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASING (MAINLY HIGH) CLOUDS BY THE
AFTN (ESPECIALLY N). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
BY SAT EVENING, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NOT QUITE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND
WITH SOME MIXING EXPECT LOWS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MAINLY SUNNY AND
CONTINUED PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG WITH LOW
HUMIDITY. CLOUDS INCREASE N OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY 50-55F THOUGH A FEW UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER MON AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
NUANCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MAINLY DUE TO THE COMPLEX
PATTERN UPCOMING LATE NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONTINUED TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW-
MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AMAZINGLY, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE RETROGRADING CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING
SOUTH AND WEST ALONG OR NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, HOWEVER THE SURFACE
PATTERN BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO A STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO WRAP INTO AT LEAST AREAS CLOSE TO
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE MOISTURE WRAPPING LEADS ME TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE
COASTAL AREAS, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE (CLOSER TO
THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM) FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY FORECAST IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND UPPER
60S COASTAL EASTERN SHORE.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FOR ORF/ECG
EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE SO WILL KEEPS ALL OF THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (<5 KT) AND GENERALLY N OVERNIGHT (ECG IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NNE 5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO ~5 KT). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
NW/W BY SAT AFTN ~5-7 KT (EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES). CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM W TO E FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CIGS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THROUGH MON/TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA, EXTENDED THE SCA'S OVER THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
PVS DSCN:
LATE THIS AFTN, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC
REGION. WINDS WERE NNE 5-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, BUT
15-20 KT OVER THE NE NC WATERS. WAVES WERE 1-3 FT AND SEAS WERE
3-6 FT. SCAS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN WATERS WILL SLOWLY END
EARLY THIS EVENING OR BY LATE TONIGHT, AS WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT INTO AT LEAST SAT
EVENING, AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. A
BRIEF UPTICK IN NW WINDS (TO NEAR 15 KT) WILL OCCUR LATE SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
LOCAL WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...
APPEARS RIC WESTHAM HAS CRESTED AROUND 11.2 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...LKB/RHR
LONG TERM...RHR/MRD
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...MPR/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
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