267  
FXUS61 KAKQ 192025  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
325 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE GULF COAST  
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY  
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HUNG THIS AFTERNOON WHILE  
ISOLD/SCT RA HAS REMAINED SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SETTLE COMPLETELY S  
OF THE FA (IN NE NC). CLEARING OR AT LEAST THINNING OF THE  
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY  
TONIGHT...W/ POTENTIAL EXCEPTION FAR S AND SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO  
COME BACK OVER THE FA FROM THE WSW LATE. N WINDS TODAY HAVE  
USHERED IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND EXPECTING A DRY/CHILLY NIGHT W/  
LOWS FROM THE M-U20S N TO THE M30S FAR SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 320 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER/THICKEN THU MORNING. PCPN IS  
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INITIALLY OVER S AND SW AREAS THEN SPREAD  
ENE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. "WARM" NEAR SFC/BOUNDARY CONDITIONS  
MAKE PTYPE FCST TRICKY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE RA OR  
RA MIXED W/ SN W/ ONLY VERY LGT ACCUMS THROUGH 20-22Z/20. PCPN  
RATES/INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE (BY) EARLY THU  
EVENING...ESP ACROSS (FAR) SRN AND SE VA INTO NE NC AND THAT  
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT (AS LO PRES BEGINS  
TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. RA BECOME SN OVER ALMOST  
ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING THEN CONTINUES INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAO+ AND STRONG NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A  
QUICK E STORM MOVEMENT. NAM (BY FAR) HAS THE GREATEST 850-700MB  
FRONTOGENESIS AND THUS MUCH HIGHER PCPN/SN ACCUM POTENTIAL (OVER  
MUCH OF THE FA). HAVE TRIED TO HONE IN FARTHER W/ THE HREF/HRRR  
AND GFS/ECMWF WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR 3"+ SN  
ACCUMS OVER SE VA/NE NC. THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. LIGHTER SN AND ACCUMS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF  
THE WATCH. A BIT EARLY FOR ADVISORIES AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN  
FURTHER PINPOINT ACCUMS BASED ON LATER GUIDANCE THIS  
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...N WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO  
25-35 MPH...ESP TOWARD THE COAST IN SE VA-NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT  
(THU NIGHT). HIGHS THU MAINLY 40-45F. LOWS THU NIGHT 20-25F  
INLAND TO THE U20S- AROUND 30F AT THE COAST.  
 
HI PRES AND CLEARING OUT FOR FRI...THOUGH COLD W/ HIGHS IN THE  
U30S-L40S. REMAINING BREEZY AT THE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT  
FRI NIGHT W/ THE CENTER OF SFC HI PRES ARRIVING LATE...SAT WILL  
BE DRY W/ MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS FRI NIGHT FROM THE  
L-M20S INLAND TO THE U20S-AROUND 30F AT THE COAST. HIGHS SAT IN  
THE U40S-L50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH  
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT,  
WITH RESULTANT DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-  
SW. THIS WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL  
AS A RENEWED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THE  
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH PARENT UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD  
OF THE CONUS.  
 
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM  
RANGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS  
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. VFR  
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
18Z TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH  
LATER THIS EVENING (AROUND 23Z-00Z) WITH CLEARING EXPECTED  
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ECG WHERE SCT CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT  
AT SBY/ORF. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN N/NNE AND WEAKEN TO <5 KT  
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SERN STATES THURS NIGHT THEN OFF  
THE COAST FRI. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX  
THURS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR  
S/SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURS  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...  
 
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10-15 KTS WITH 15-20 KTS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT AND  
SEAS 3-4 FT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ANZ658) WHERE  
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THAT ZONE.  
 
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY AND OFFSHORE BY THE  
EVENING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTER  
OF THE COUNTRY. N/NE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON  
OVER CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND THE REST  
OF THE AREA WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS BY  
FRIDAY MORNING 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. LATEST WIND PROBS  
FOR DUCK BUOY SHOW 80-90% OF GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,  
SO A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST COASTAL ZONE. THE  
REST OF THE AREA WATERS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA WIND CRITERIA.  
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, CURRITUCK SOUND SCA  
STARTS AT 18Z THURSDAY, 00Z FOR THE LOWER BAY AND ADJACENT COASTAL  
WATERS, AND 03Z FOR THE UPPER BAY, REMAINING COASTAL WATERS, AND THE  
LOWER JAMES.  
 
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE  
STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER  
TO THE OH VALLEY. SCA'S WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE  
COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.  
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-524-525.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MPR  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...RMM  
MARINE...CMF/JDM  
 
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