599
FXUS61 KAKQ 071054
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY. GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WNW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS AS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IS SITUATED
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...A
WEAK...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM LATE WED HAS
DISSIPATED/MOVED OFF THE COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LO PRES WAS FOUND
INVOF CENTRAL CHES BAY AND WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT PCPN/ WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
W/ THAT FEATURE (SUPPORTED BY WEAK S/W ALOFT) IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER FAR NRN AND NE PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ELSW...PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
TODAY. UNLIKE PAST 2 DAYS...RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO APPARENT
TRIGGER OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WNW SO APPEARS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL BE LARGELY ASSOCIATED
INVOF BOUNDARIES FROM STMS THE PAST 12 HRS...HEATING AND THE
SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OVER SRN/SE VA-NE NC. WILL
CARRY GENERALLY 30-50% POPS FOR N AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...AND
50-60% LATE THIS AFTERNOON (INTO THE EVENING) OVER FAR SRN/SE
VA-NE NC.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE TRIMMED A BIT TODAY BUT DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE L-M70S. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
L-M80S ON THE ERN SHORE...OTW THE U80S N AND L90S S AND SE
(WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE U90S TO JUST
ABOVE 100F). SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLGT RISK SVR FOR ALL BUT THE
ERN SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STMS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN (WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK/WAVY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE FA) REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. CONSENSUS OF MODELS
HAS A MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING/REACHING
THE FA FROM THE WNW BY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...DEPARTING SAT.
FRONT BEGINS TO DROP S SAT. POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM FRI
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO LOWER FRI-
SAT BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M80S NE TO THE M-U80S ELSW.
HIGHS SAT IN THE L80S N TO THE M-U80S S. LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT
IN THE L-M70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT-SUN.
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT IMPROVING WX WILL OCCUR SUN THOUGH
HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN...HIGHEST OVER
NE NC (AS SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOWER WRT
DRYING). HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TAKE OVER MONDAY
AND MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN MID- LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING IN OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. SCHC OF SHOWERS FOR W AND N OF
RICHMOND TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE US A "BREAK" FROM THE
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MID-80S
MONDAY. UPPER 80S-LOW 90S RETURN STARTING TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S SUNDAY MORNING, MID-60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE
LOWER MD ERN SHORE...INVOF SBY BEFORE 14Z/07. ALSO...POTENTIAL
FOR BKN MVFR OVER POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EARLY...ESPECIALLY AT SBY.
SOME LINGERING MVFR THEN QUITE POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 18-21Z/07. FAIRLY
SIMILAR TONIGHT- SAT W/ UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF (MAINLY) AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CHES BAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A TROUGH WELL TO THE NE OVER EASTERN
CANADA, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE BAY AT 5-10 KT WITH S AND SW ~10 KT FLOW TO
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE
BAY ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS BECOME E AND SE 5-15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR SOUTH
ON FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE ENE FLOW BECOMING E AND SE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNSET WITH WINDS TURNING FROM
THE NE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH WITH ~15 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE. SCA
HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AS NE WINDS RESULT IN 4-6 FT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS TURNING SE THEN SW AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES TODAY. SURF INCREASES ACROSS THE
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FORECAST FOR MD/VA BEACHES ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/JKP
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...RHR
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