646
FXUS61 KAKQ 251800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IT REMAINS DRY
SUNDAY, BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE
COAST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND ELEVATED WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL, MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- NOT AS COLD TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. IT
REMAINS COOL, BUT PLEASANT, THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S (MID 60S FAR S). WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT (MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL).
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP INSULATE THE AREA SOME TONIGHT, SO WE
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. FORECASTING LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
FOR SUNDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO START THE DAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY RAIN
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AM, BUT DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CHANCES
LIMITED. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH (MID
60S FAR SOUTH).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY.
A CLOSED OFF UL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLANS WILL NUDGE CLOSER
TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW TAKES FORM NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. STAYING DRY LOCALLY WHILE STILL UNDER THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE,
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
BETWEEN THE LOWS ALOFT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE
(RELATIVELY) THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE
40S AND EVEN THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR SE.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO COMPLICATE GOING INTO MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UL LOW TO THE WEST WILL MELD WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH FORMING TO OUR N. A WEDGE WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE AREA AS A SFC LOW OR COASTAL TROUGH FORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE FORMING SFC LOW. REGARDLESS OF PATTERN SPECIFICS, MONDAY
LOOKS LIKE A DREARY DAY WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS AND MAYBE
SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS S OF I-64 (15-20% POPS). HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, BUT DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
THE DREARY/UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY LAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH THE WEDGE SET UP GETTING LOCKED IN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL
SEEING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES WITH REGARDS
TO TRACK AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. THE GFS CLEARS THE
INITIAL LOW BY WED MORNING THEN BRINGS IN A SECONDARY SYSTEM
LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW AN ALMOST
IMMEDIATE FORMATION OF THE SECONDARY LOW BEFORE THE FIRST CAN
FULLY CLEAR OUT. EITHER SOLUTION RESULTS IN THE CLOUDY, DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH RAIN WILL COME OUT OF
THESE SYSTEMS. IF THE LOW IS STRONGER AND STAYS CLOSER TO OUR
COAST AS THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST, THE SE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAINFALL. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ECMWF ENS AS WELL,
WHICH PUTS 1.5-2" OF RAIN IN HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ISN'T TOO FAR BEHIND WITH 1-1.5" IN THE
SAME SPOT, BUT MOST OF IT FROM THE SECOND SYSTEM INSTEAD OF
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN
AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON TUE FOR MOST AND THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR SE. WED-FRI
WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR, THOUGH MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/25 TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. CLOUD BASES REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWERING (STILL VFR) BY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NNE WINDS AROUND 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOME
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES AND SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY
BREEZY TO WINDY NE FLOW (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST). THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR AND RAIN DURING THE PERIOD WILL
LIKELY BE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 350 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN STRONG NE FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER COASTAL LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS LATER NEXT WEEK.
1028MB HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WIND N TO NNW 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
~20KT. SEAS/WAVES ARE PRIMARILY 2-3FT. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHENS TO ~1034MB. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE N TO NE
5-10KT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND LOCALLY NE 10-15KT S OF CAPE
HENRY BY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED N
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN IN VICINITY OF THE NC COAST WITH A NE WIND
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 10-15KT, AND 15-20KT S OF CAPE HENRY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4FT S BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY BUILDING TO 2-3FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DEVELOPING S-N BY MONDAY AS A NE WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT N TO
20-25KT S. SEAS BUILD TO 4-5FT N TO 5-7FT S, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY BY LATER MONDAY AND 4-5FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO A PERIOD OF STRONG
ONSHORE (NE) FLOW DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME AS
1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER QB WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. 00Z/25 EPS
PROBS FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 34KT REMAIN QUITE HIGH
(60-90%) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHES. BAY, AND EVEN HAS UP TO 20-30% PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 34KT
FOR THE VA COASTAL WATERS, AND 30-40% FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34KT GUSTS ARE SIMILAR S OF PARRAMORE IS.,
BUT SUSTAINED PROBS ARE LOWER. REGARDLESS, A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY PROBABLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEAS BUILD TO 7-10FT, WITH 3-5FT WAVES (5- 6FT AT THE MOUTH) IN
THE CHES. BAY. MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED MID TO LATE
WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A
SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, BRINGING AT
LEAST CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page