502
FXUS61 KAKQ 162000
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE STALLS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.
- THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE SOME COUNTIES ON
THE S AND SW PERIPHERY AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE GLOUCESTER,
MATHEWS, LANCASTER, MIDDLESEX, NORTHUMBERLAND, ACCOMACK, AND
NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HAMPTON ROADS VICINITY AND INTO THE
PENINSULAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2-4" INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
- THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SE VA AND
THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING COASTAL MARYLAND. BREEZY NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH INLAND AND 35-45 MPH ALONG THE BAY
AND ATLANTIC COAST.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE VA BEACH. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE CONSENSUS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING NW OR EVEN WNW FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FLOOD WATCH TO BETTER MATCH
THIS EVOLUTION WHICH RESULTED IN CANCELING THE WATCH IN NC. WITH
THE FARTHER EAST TRACK, OPTED TO EXPAND THE WATCH A BIT
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE GLOUCESTER, MATHEWS, LANCASTER, MIDDLESEX,
NORTHUMBERLAND, ACCOMACK AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 1- 3" BUT LOCALIZED AREAS
OF 4"+ ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDER HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL COUNTIES SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE WEATHER GRIDS. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM S TO N TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW/MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS LINGER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
- LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.
THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 0.5-1.5" POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF I-64 AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY FILLS IN WITH WINDS
DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS WEAKEN AND EXIT THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 60 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY, SENDING A BACK
DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW EXTRA
CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
AGAINST THE HIGHER APPALACHIANS TERRAIN AND MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE S.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS REMAIN DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COASTAL LOW SITS JUST OFF THE SE VA COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS AND VIS WITHIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH
SOME AREAS MAY SEE INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE RAIN, BUT TIMING THESE
BREAKS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE, SO HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR VIS
AT MOST TERMINALS. WITH THE LOW MOVING MORE NORTH THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS AT ECG AS IT HAS
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WILL REMAIN LOW END MVFR TO IFR AT ALL SITES.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KTS AT MOST TERMINALS. RIC HAS UNDERPERFORMED IN TERMS OF WINDS, BUT
GUSTS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO COME UP. WINDS SHOULD START TO COME
DOWN TONIGHT, BUT WILL STAY ELEVATED WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. GUSTS AT ORF
WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGHER AS THEY ARE MUCH MORE EXPOSED TO THE NNE
FLOW.
OUTLOOK: THE COASTAL LOW WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK WITH
DEGRADED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY.
- QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
~1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED JUST OFF THE VA BEACH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HAS BEEN LESS-THAN-STRAIGHTFORWARD
AND THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT WOBBLING MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. N-NE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 25-35 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH GUSTS AVERAGING 35-45 KT. SEAS HAVE BUILT
CONSIDERABLY TO 10-13 FT WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES IN
THE BAY HAVE EVEN INCREASED TO 4-7 FT.
BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, THE LOW IS LIKELY TO
SLOWLY INCH WESTWARD AND MOVE ONSHORE INTO SE VA OR INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER COULD ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO HANDLE
THESE HIGHER GUSTS WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS (AS OPPOSED TO A
SHORT-DURATION STORM WARNING). WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW,
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND HAVE MADE THE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE. AFTER GALE WARNINGS
DROP OFF, THEY WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE EARLIER GALE FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND WAS REPLACED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS
THE LOW MEANDERS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY, THOUGH THE LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
GAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS THE THE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
ELEVATED SEAS ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MAGNITUDE
WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND WINDS DECREASE.
A W-NW WIND DIRECTION PERSISTS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE
A LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND PATTERN TAKES OVER FRIDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ELEVATED NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
WINDS AND SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...
THE ELEVATED NE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGHER
TIDES WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE TRACK OF
THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON HAS INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE
LATEST TIDE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TIDAL JAMES AND
YORK RIVERS. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE STILL FOR HIGH-END MINOR
TO MODERATE FLOODING, BUT MAJOR FLOODING NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY
THERE. HOWEVER, AM STILL EXPECTING MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IN VA BEACH (NEAR LYNNHAVEN) AND
POSSIBLY AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL. FURTHER UP THE BAY
(AND ALONG THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND POTOMAC), MINOR TO LOW-
END MODERATE FLOODING ALSO REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES AND COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COAST ADJACENT TO THE
WESTERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA, INCLUDING
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, VA. ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
OCEAN CITY TO CHINCOTEAGUE TO ACCOUNT FOR MINOR FLOODING.
EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS WITH
NO WORSE THAN NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
9/16 9/17
RIC 65/1959 61/2011
ORF 64/1963 65/1986
SBY 59/1963 63/1924
ECG 66/1963 65/2011
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ024-
025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-086-099-
100-523-525.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ075>078-085-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-521-522.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ077-078-084>086-
089-090-093-095>100-523>525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ083-
084-086-095-097-098-100-518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ089-090-
093-096-524-525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-634-638-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>637-658.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ERI/SW
CLIMATE...
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