088
FXUS61 KAKQ 152342
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
742 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS. CLIMATE SECTION
UPDATED WITH TODAY'S NEW RECORD HIGHS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX EVENT
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10".
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, AND STRONG UPPER
RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOCK IN A VERY
WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BERMUDA HIGH SETUP,
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID SUMMER, WILL ALLOW FOR RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE MUCH
LOWER DEW PTS (GENERALLY IN THE 50S) WHICH WILL KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS FAR
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. TODAY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN TOMORROW WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND (WITH SOME LOCALIZED MID 90S POSSIBLE). CURRENTLY, INLAND
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90F, AND WILL LIKELY RISE ANOTHER 1-3
DEGREES THROUGH 5 PM. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS THAN
ANTICIPATED (SO FAR), ALLOWING SOME LOCALIZED ONSHORE FLOW AT
THE COAST, WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. SBY HAS ALREADY BROKEN
TODAY'S DAILY RECORD HIGH, AND RIC HAS ALREADY TIED THE
RECORD. ORF MAY DO SO BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER IF THE WINDS SWITCH
BACK TO THE SW AND INCREASE, WHILE THE RECORD APPEARS UNLIKELY
AT ECG. ADDITIONAL RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON THURSDAY
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON RECORDS THROUGH SAT
4/18).
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO APPRECIABLE
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR EACH DAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
VA STATE FORESTRY AGAIN TODAY, THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF VA (WITH
HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
(THU). THIS IS WHERE AFTN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ARE CO-
LOCATED WITH MIN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 30%, ALONG WITH HIGHS AT
OR ABOVE 90F. THIS GENERALLY INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL VA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO WILLIAMSBURG AND INTERIOR SE VA
(AND COULD BE EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER SE FOR THURSDAY). THE SPS
ALSO INCLUDES NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, NC AS PER COLLABORATION WITH
NCFS TODAY AND THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RE-ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THU WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
AVERAGING 25-30% INLAND AND 30-35% CLOSER TO THE COAST (ALONG
WITH ~20 MPH GUSTS). THE WIND WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ON FRIDAY
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH VERY
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND
25-35% INLAND (HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOME ONSHORE
IN THE AFTN). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. EVEN THE NBM, WHICH HAS A HIGH BIAS WITH RESPECT TO
DEW PTS, DEPICTS MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 18-22% ALONG AND W OF
I-95 FOR MONDAY. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MINIMAL SUNDAY (AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST), THE COMBINATION OF A BREEZY NW WIND AND
VERY LOW RH AT LEAST GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10".
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S N AND NEAR THE
COAST, TO THE UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
BRINGS MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE MEAGER, SO ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY WITH THAT SHORTWAVE. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH, BUT A FEW MODELS HAVE INCREASED POPS ENOUGH INTO SE
VA FOR LOW-END CHC POPS THERE AS WELL. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST, AND MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY. ONE LAST VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY (LOWER
90S INLAND) AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AGAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUITY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE BETTER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. POPS HAVE
INCREASED TO LOW-END LIKELY (~60%) FOR MOST OF THE AREA (LOWEST
IN THE SW). SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, WITH A LOW CHC
OF A TSTM. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPS
COULD DROP INTO THE 60S OR EVEN 50S, WHICH COULD EASILY YIELD 24
HOUR TEMP CHANGES ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES F. ENSEMBLE PROBS
OF 0.10"+ OF RAIN HAVE REMAINED SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT'S RUNS
(50-70% ACROSS MOST AREAS), AND ARE HIGHEST NE/LOWEST SW.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL IS STILL 10% OR
LOWER FOR THE REGION. MUCH COOLER WX RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY AND LOWS
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AM. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT FROST WELL INLAND NEXT TUE AM AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS REBOUND TO AROUND NORMAL
TUESDAY, AND THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL WED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 00Z/16 TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT INLAND, BUT WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT 10-15 KT AT ORF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25KT LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY, AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MAINLY S-SW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DEGRADED MARINE CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF COAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WELL TO THE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC.
A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS NOTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MI SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS
LOCALLY ARE MAINLY FROM THE S AND SW 5-10 KT. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT OFFSHORE. BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BRIEFLY STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONGER PERIOD OF SW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ~15 KT IN THE
CHES BAY AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS DURING THIS PERIOD AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS
BUILD TO ~5 FT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL
WINDS/SEAS, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES AS THE PERIOD IN QUESTION
IS 36 HOURS OUT. A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS UNTIL THE GRADIENT
RELAXES ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
NEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET TODAY, 4/15 FOR RICHMOND (93),
NORFOLK (91), AND SALISBURY (89).
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/15 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR
LOCATION 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ----- ------ ------ ------
RICHMOND 93 (2026) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
NORFOLK 91 (2026) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
SALISBURY 89 (2026) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/15 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR
LOCATION 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
NORFOLK 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
SALISBURY 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
ELIZ. CITY 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-509>522.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...AJB
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