934
FXUS61 KAKQ 180000
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
800 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE BASE OF A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY
DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE, COOL 1032+MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND IS
BUILDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL MILD THIS EVENING IN
OUT AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING COOL FRONT, WITH EARLY EVENING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S, THOUGH A FEW 40S NOW NOTED OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.
CAA WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SHALLOW MIXING,
WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE FALL OF TEMPERATURES, AND PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION TONIGHT, ASIDE FROM TYPICALLY PROTECTED VALLEYS IN
THE WRN TIER PIEDMONT COUNTIES. NEVERTHELESS, EVEN WITH THE MILD
START TO THE EVENING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE
PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AT TO THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SUNNY AND COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. FORECAST LOWS ARE
IN THE LOW/MID 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT, INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, AND
INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE. SOME COLDER LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY COULD
DROP TO 32F GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND A DRY
AIRMASS. PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, BUT FROST COULD
POTENTIALLY BE MORE WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ELSEWHERE, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH MID 40S AT THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY AFTN. MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY EVENING, AND PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
POPS ARE ~60-70% FOR SHOWERS, WITH MAINLY LIGHT QPF OF 0.25" OR
LESS. MILDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SKY QUICKLY CLEARS OUT SAT NIGHT, AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N/NW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-
MID 40S NW TO THE LOW 50S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC.
EXPECT COOL, DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -1C TO -4C SUNDAY AFTERNOON),
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT. THIS
RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ON
SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH (NEARLY) OVERHEAD, EXPECT A COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH MID-UPPER 30S INLAND/LOW 40S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING A FREEZE OVER INLAND SPOTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MON PM, ALLOWING FOR A VERY
MODEST WARM-UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE (SFC- ALOFT)
PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUE- WED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FROPA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON
MON RISING INTO THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE ON TUE, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ON TUE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. REMAINING CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER, A N WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT AT ORF
LATER TONIGHT AS A COOL FRONT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME SC (MAINLY 4-6KFT) COULD DEVELOP NEAR/JUST
E-NE OF PHF/ORF IN THE FORM OF BAY STREAMER CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THU. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF -RA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN WNW WINDS 5-15
KT. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY TONIGHT, WE CAN EXPECT A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS BY LATE THIS
EVENING AS A DECENT SURGE OF CAA ENSUES. NW OR N WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO
35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND 3-4 FT OVER THE CHES BAY. WILL KEEP SCAS AS IS BUT WILL
ALSO ADD IN THE UPPER JAMES RIVER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FROM LATER THU MORNING INTO THU NIGHT, AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SSW WINDS OF 10-20 KT, BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
NEXT SURGE OF NW WINDS 15-25 KT.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE APPOMATTOX
BASIN. AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS ACTIVE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE MATTAPONI RIVER WHERE THE LEVEL IS STILL STEADY AT
BEULAHVILLE. SEE FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ FOR SITE-SPECIFIC DETAILS. A
FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED FOR SEBRELL AS MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/MAM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
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