526
FXUS61 KAKQ 301848
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW TO THE NE SLOWLY SLIDES AWAY. DRIER AIR HAS
DEFINITELY MADE IT INTO THE FA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LOWER HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID 80S HAVE ALL ADDED UP TO A PRETTY
NICE LATE JULY DAY. TOMORROW WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY, THOUGH
MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER. SATURDAY WILL ALSO OVERALL BE PRETTY
NICE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE AND THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW MEANS THE HUMIDITY WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND LIKELY WASH OUT
BY TUE). WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE, DEEP-LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW
RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER
US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-1.4" ON SATURDAY
TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY (WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND).
THEN, SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EACH DAY. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS, WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND TALL, SKINNY
CAPE...NOT REALLY LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WX BUT THERE
WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY. THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS DIP
DOWN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD THANKS TO
THE CLOUD COVER AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/30 TAF PERIOD. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
WHERE A THICKER LAYER OF CU MEANS BKN FOR SBY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AGAIN AFTER DARK. BREEZY NW WINDS GIVE WAY TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. PERIODIC SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED S/SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THE WIND IS GENERALLY NW 10-
15KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MARINE AREA, AND 5-10KT TO THE
SOUTH. SEAS ARE 2-3FT WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY NUDGES OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY SHIFTING FROM NW TO E/NE, THEN S/SE, BEFORE
BECOMING SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE ~2FT, WITH ~1FT WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WIND SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SUB-
SCA. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING, AND THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT
LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY SUB-SCA FLOW SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 2-3FT,
WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REACH 2-3FT
IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CHC OF AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/ERI
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page