399  
FXUS61 KAKQ 121508  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1008 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST  
TODAY AND DRAGS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH BELOW AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS AREA  
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1000 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
FRONT IS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 10 AM.  
MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES  
ARE DROPPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT, ALREADY DOWN TO 40 IN  
LOUISA COUNTY. AS THE COLD AIR CHASES THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON,  
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.  
SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IF SNOW GETS  
INTRODUCED, SO RATES WOULD HAVE TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH TO GET  
ANYTHING TO STICK TO ELEVATED SURFACES MUCH LESS GROUND LEVEL.  
EVEN ACROSS WESTERN VA WHERE ALL SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS HAVE  
OCCURRED IT HAS STRUGGLED TO STICK TO ROAD SURFACES. ANOTHER  
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE WINDS.  
GUSTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN 30-40 MPH, AND  
EXPECT GUSTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG THE SE COAST LATER  
TODAY. SHORT TERM WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR VA BEACH AND  
NE NC COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  
 
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
CURRENT WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING  
ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO NJ, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW  
THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. MEANWHILE, 1042MB HIGH PRESSURE IS  
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD  
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH  
THE 50S (THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CALENDER DAY MAX TEMPS FOR  
11/12). THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME ANAFRONTAL AS IT  
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHALLOW COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING SW  
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S BEHIND  
THE FRONT, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM W-E. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY  
ARRIVE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND PCPN SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. PCPN WILL  
CONTINUE LONGER (INTO MID-LATE AFTN) FROM CENTRAL TO SE VA, THE ERN  
SHORE, AND NE NC. COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ALOFT, AND MOST DATA  
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY AFTN FROM CENTRAL VA TO  
THE ERN SHORE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AN ISSUE AS A SHALLOW  
WELL MIXED LATER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 30S  
BY AFTN FOR THESE LOCATIONS. PCPN COULD BRIEFLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW  
IN HIGHER INTENSITY BANDS, BUT WILL STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY  
ACCUMULATING ON RELATIVELY WARM GROUND. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR  
FROM THE NW SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO ANY PCPN BY LATER IN THE  
AFTN FROM NW-SE. QPF AVERAGES 0.3-0.6" ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE  
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY SUBSTANTIALLY FROM  
WHAT IT IS NOW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL  
BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20F NW, TO THE LOW 30S SE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT DROPPING INTO UPPER TEENS LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,  
WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30F SE. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR  
RECORDS. A BAY STREAMER IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. HIGH  
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES MODERATE, BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH  
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT  
IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO LOW/MID 40S SE. INCREASING CLOUDS,  
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 400 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
THE 00Z/12 ECMWF AND 00Z/11 GFS HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER IN  
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE  
ECMWF FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD TO EAST OF THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRI NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW  
PRESSURE WILL SIT JUST OFF THE SE COAST FRI NIGHT INTO SUN, THEN  
LIFTS NNE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. THIS  
SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN DRY WX FOR MOST OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT  
INTO SUN MORNING, THEN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC/CHC FOR RAIN FOR ALL  
AREAS LATER SUN THROUGH MON.  
 
AS FOR TEMPS, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOWER 50S  
SAT, IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S SUN, AND RANGING THROUGH THE  
50S TO NEAR 60 MON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30/LOWER 30S WNW,  
TO THE LOWER 40S SE FRI NIGHT, IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WNW,  
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SE SAT NIGHT, AND MAINLY RANGING FROM  
THE UPPER 30S WNW, TO THE UPPER 40S SE VA/NE NC SUN NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 700 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AS OF 12Z, WITH A  
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SW THROUGH THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR  
CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL  
GRADUALLY FALL TO 5-10KFT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT  
ALONG WITH SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM 14-18Z TODAY. THE WIND WILL SHIFT  
TO NNW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT (POTENTIALLY  
UP TO 30KT AT THE COAST). CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY  
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A 3-6HR  
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT,  
WITH VSBY POTENTIALLY FALLING TO 2-4SM. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO  
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-22Z, BEFORE PCPN  
ENDS, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT RIC/SBY. CLOUDS CLEAR QUICKLY  
TONIGHT AT MOST SITES. HOWEVER, A BAY STREAMER COULD RESULT IN  
CLOUDS PERSISTING AT ORF, WITH CIGS OF 3-4KFT. SCT CLOUDS OF  
3-4KFT COULD ALSO REACH ECG LATER TONIGHT.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE  
PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY BRINGING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 345 AM EST TUESDAY...  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING  
THEN WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT, BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N AND  
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES LATE  
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL NW TO N WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR  
THE EASTERN VA RIVERS AND MOST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM LATE  
THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL REACH  
25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT FOR THE MOUTH OF  
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND ALL OF THE LOCAL  
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE SAME TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO  
GO WITH A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS, THE  
CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THROUGH 7 AM WED. SCAS  
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS.  
WAVES WILL REACH 3-5 FEET ON THE CHES BAY BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT  
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 9 FEET BY TONIGHT (HIGHEST SOUTH). A  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VA BEACH SOUTHWARD  
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
BREAKING WAVES OF 6 TO 9 FEET EXPECTED.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RATHER QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF SCAS WILL BE NEEDED FOR AREAS  
CURRENTLY UNDER A GALE WARNING ONCE THEY EXPIRE (FROM LATER WED  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE). HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE END OFF THE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED AS LOW PRESSURE NEARSHORE AND HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. IN FACT, A COASTAL SYSTEM IS  
LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE  
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY. RECORD LOW AND LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR  
WEDNESDAY 11/13 ARE BELOW:  
 
RECORD  
LOCATION LOW (11/13) YEAR  
------- -------- ------  
RICHMOND 20 1941  
NORFOLK 27 1934  
SALISBURY 19 2001  
 
RECORD  
LOW MAX  
LOCATION (11/13) YEAR  
-------- ------ ----  
RICHMOND 37 1911  
NORFOLK 42 1920  
SALISBURY 42 1977  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  
NCZ017-102.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.  
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR  
VAZ095-098-100-524-525.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098.  
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ098.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-  
654-656-658.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-  
638.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM  
NEAR TERM...AJZ/CMF  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM  
LONG TERM...AJZ/TMG  
AVIATION...AJZ  
MARINE...AJZ/RHR  
CLIMATE...AKQ  
 
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