868
FXUS61 KAKQ 221045
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TODAY IN ADDITION TO NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA.
2) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TODAY IN ADDITION
TO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
HAS ALLOWED LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST, SO TEMPERATURES
WERE MUCH WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, AND MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.
THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
TROUGH TRACKS N-S THROUGH THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL VA
TO THE EASTERN SHORE. POPS ARE MAINLY 30-40% N TO LESS THAN 20%
S, AND EVEN AREAS ACROSS THE N THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE
COINCIDENT WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 30-45%. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MOISTURE IS LOCATED ABOVE A DEEP WELL MIXED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL THUNDER
PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW. FARTHER SOUTH, MIN RH VALUES FALL TO
25-35% ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AND WITH THE COMBINED GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH, THERE IS INCREASED FIRE DANGER. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE NC FOREST SERVICE,
HAVE ISSUED AN IFD STATEMENT FOR NE NC. MEANWHILE, THE IFD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN VA TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND S OF THE US 460 CORRIDOR W OF THE TRI- CITIES, AND
THEN EASTWARD TO INCLUDE HAMPTON ROADS.
SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING IN
VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKING SE.
HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MOISTURE ABOVE A
DEEP WELL MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN A LACK OF RICH
MOISTURE. WARM INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
LOWER TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY, AND
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FRIDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT NUDGES ONSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MOST 00Z/22 DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A COLD
FRONT DROPPING TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER SATURDAY. TIMING OF THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AS VERY
WARM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, 24 HOUR EPS
50TH PERCENTILE QPF THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IS ON THE ORDER OF
0.2-0.4", WHILE THE GEFS IS LESS THAN 0.2". PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 0.5" ARE GENERALLY 20-40% N FROM THE EPS AND LESS THAN
20% S, WHILE THE GEFS 0.5" PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WOULD NOT SUBSTANTIALLY ALLEVIATE DROUGHT
CONCERNS, BUT WOULD DEFINITELY BE WELCOME. A FEW TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SUNDAY AND LOWS
IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN
BY MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AS OF 12Z. VFR WITH A S TO SW
WIND OF 10-15KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. BECOMING BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15KT GUSTING TO 20-25KT. CLOUDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES N-S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW.
PROB30S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SHOWERS AT RIC AND SBY, AND
HAVE BEEN ADDED TO PHF AND ORF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO EXPAND TO ECG. REGARDLESS, ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE VERY BRIEF. CLOUD COVER CLEARS AND THE WIND BECOMES LIGHT,
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WSW BY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR THURSDAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM FRIDAY
AFTN (20-30% CHC). SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHC OF SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE N SUNDAY WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND PERSISTING
ALONG THE COAST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT LOWER CIGS.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY S-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY,
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
- LIGHTER FLOW AND BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
AS EXPECTED, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED WELL INTO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TERRITORY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE LATEST SUITE OF
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS BOTH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OCEAN SHOW
WIDESPREAD READINGS OF 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ELEVATED
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THIS MORNING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING TO THE SW AND THEN W THIS
AFTERNOON. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, HAVE ADDED THE CURRITUCK
SOUND FROM 10 AM-4 PM AS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PORTEND TO GUSTY SW WINDS HERE. LASTLY, WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THESE GUSTS WOULD BE SPORADIC. THE WIND DECREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT AND BECOMES N/NW. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
PREVAILS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD THEN IMPACT THE WATERS BY THE WEEKEND
WITH SCAS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
NEARSHORE SEAS OF 4-5 FT HAVE LIKELY DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
WAVES IN CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FT AND OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A BENIGN SEA/WAVE
STATE RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-065>067-079>082-087>090-092-097-098-
523>525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-635-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ636-
637-639.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
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