273
FXUS61 KAKQ 210628
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT, THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING. CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. REMAINING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, AND A CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH A FEW
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
SFC HI PRES MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE OR SHIFTS JUST
SLIGHTLY OFF THE NC COAST OF NC ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED MAINLY
SUNNY/DRY WX FOR SAT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW MORE
DEGREES (TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG) WITH HIGHS INTO THE M80S INLAND
AND U70S/AROUND 80F AT THE COAST. SKC SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING W/
LOWS IN THE U50S-M60S. TURNING A BIT WARMER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
S FLOW...RESULTING IN HIGHS 85-90F INLAND... L-M80S NEAR THE
COAST.
SFC HI PRES BECOMES ELONGATED ENE-WSW FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC TO
THE SE CONUS AND RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT BY MON. STILL WARM W/
SW WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. POPS REMAIN AOB
10%. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS LATE WHICH MAY
THROW A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN
THE DAY (ESP INLAND). HIGHS MON MAINLY 85-90F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...
OTHER THAN A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRAS-TSTMS (ESP N
AND NE PORTIONS OF THE FA MON NIGHT W/ A (WEAK) COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE (AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BY LATE THU W/ A SECOND (WEAKENING)
COLD FRONT)...DRY WX AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AOA NORMALS
WILL PREVAILS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS TUE IN THE U70S-L80S...WED MAINLY 80-85F...THU AND FRI IN
THE M-U80S. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U50S-M60S...M50S-L60S TUE
NIGHT...L-M60S WED NIGHT AND M-U60S THU NIGHT.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FAR SE VA AND NE NC BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC AND WILL
DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN. LIGHT SSW WINDS (LESS THAN 10KT)
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT BUT STILL ONLY IN
THE 10-15KT RANGE SUN/MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY; SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY, BUT LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION WITH N TO NE WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN
NC. WINDS HAVE NOW VEERED TO THE SW OVER THE WATERS AND HAVE
INCREASED TO 10-15 KT (HIGHEST OVER THE ERN CHES BAY). A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN NOTED AT ELEVATED SITES ON THE BAY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL 5-6 N/7-8 FT S OF THE VA-NC BORDER
DUE TO SWELL FROM WHAT WAS TC HUMBERTO. WAVES ARE ~2 FT OVER MOST OF
THE CHES BAY, WITH 3 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTN-EVENING (FROM N TO S). SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 20Z/4 PM, AND UNTIL
23Z/7 PM FOR THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. 5 FT SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS S OF THE VA-NC
BORDER, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR JUST A FEW
HOURS ATTM.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SW
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO ~10 KT BY SUNRISE AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE S AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY (WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-15 KT) BY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON THE CHES
BAY (MAINLY AT ELEVATED SITES) FROM 00-06Z SUN. WINDS TURN TO THE SW
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY (S-SW 15-17
KNOTS OVER THE BAY/15-20 KT OVER THE OCEAN...HIGHEST N) BEFORE
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR SCAS TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A CHC OF SCAS LATE SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE SHOWING AN 80% CHC OF
25 KT WIND GUSTS AT BUOY 44009. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT CHC OF
FREQUENT 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE NRN CHES BAY (FROM 00-12Z MON), SO
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT DURATION SCA THERE AS WELL.
SUB-SCA ARE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA MON NIGHT-TUE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE
TO INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY AND NEAR SHORE-NORMAL SWELLS. USE
EXTRA CAUTION IF VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND AND ALWAYS HEED
THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...CMF/LKB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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