265
FXUS61 KAKQ 192310
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
KICK A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST AND A
SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THUNDER MAINLY CONFINED TO THE S/SE
WHERE THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT THAT LARGER HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN CELLS THAT FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE VA AND
NE NC WHERE TEMPS MADE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME OF
THE CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS FAR SE VA AND MOST OF NE NC.
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND WILL KICK THE WEAK LOW OUT TO SEA, BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IT WILL BE
BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. MILDER LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY CLEARING THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME OF THE STORMS
BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WX, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND NE NC. THE
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NW FLOW AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
OUT WEST TO MID AND UPPER 70S SE.
RAIN COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE
COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT UP TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
ONE MORE COLD MORNING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SE STATES. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST, AND
LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL ADVANCE TO
THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY AND THEN UP TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE MILDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISBYS. PRECIP MOVES OUT OFF THE COAST BY
AROUND 00Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VFR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY
IMPACT SOME OF THE TERMINALS BUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF FOG OUT. NORTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 700 PM EDT MONDAY...
WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED OFF OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
N OF THE VA/NC BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES AS SEAS HAVE RISEN TO 4-5 FT IN
VA AND UP TO 6-7 FT IN NC WATERS. WILL ALSO KEEP SCA'S GOING IN
THE CURRITUCK SOUND FOR WINDS TO 20KT+ FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS
BEFORE THE SFC LOW PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EVEN OVER THE NC WATERS LATER
THIS EVENING, THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE S 10-15KT LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE
WIND MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA CRITERIA 15-20KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND
LOWER JAMES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF W/ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES WITH SCA FLAGS ALREADY
IN PLACE AT PRESENT.
THEREAFTER, BIGGEST MARINE IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE W WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NW WIND OF 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30KT. IN-
HOUSE WIND PROBS HIGHLIGHT A RATHER BRIEF PERIOD (< 3 HRS) OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS TO ~35KT POSSIBLE FOR THE OPEN OCEAN ZONES N OF CAPE
CHARLES AND OVER THE MIDDLE BAY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SEAS BUILD
TO 5-6FT, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS WELL NE OF
THE REGION, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/CMF
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...AJB/CMF
MARINE...AJZ/LKB/MAM
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