209
FXUS61 KAKQ 250619
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY- PASSING SYSTEMS POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE AREA WITH
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 810 PM EDT FRIDAY...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER N AR/S MO
EARLY THIS EVENING BORDER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING E OVER
THE NRN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY HAS
BECOME BRIEFLY HUNG UP OVER OUR FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND SEPARATES UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER SE VA/COASTAL NE NC AND
MID-UPPER 70S FROM ROCKY MOUNT, NC TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. MEANWHILE, THE WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY/WEDGE FRONT IS DRAPED FROM JUST NORTH OF RIC METRO OVER
TO THE NORTHERN NECK AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS TO THE NORTH THIS BOUNDARY,
WITH MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH.
SHOWERS TAPER TO DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, WITH THE SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST OVERNIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S (EXCEPT FOR LOWER-MID 50S IN NE NC AND FAR SOUTHERN VA
AWAY FROM THE WATER). COULD SEE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC, WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NNE INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES ON SAT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING-
MIDDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIC METRO AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST).
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ON SAT, AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NW
COUNTIES AND MD ERN SHORE) BY THE AFTN AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE SSW (TO ~25 MPH). FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 70S-LOWER 80S IN
MOST AREAS (WITH 60S-70F ACROSS THE FAR NW AND ON THE ERN SHORE).
TEMPERATURES MAY FAIL TO REACH 60F IN OCEAN CITY, MD. THERE IS ALSO
A CHC THAT IT IS MUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST FROM LOUISA-FARMVILLE IF
THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SAT EVENING, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTN-EARLY EVENING (COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED). DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS BACK N ON SAT, THERE
WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC FOR
TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE REGION (THOUGH SEVERE WX IS VERY UNLIKELY).
WE LOOK TO FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING SKIES LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WELL
INLAND (TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S
AT THE COAST BUT WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE AFTN AS THE
FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE). MOSTLY CLEAR SUN NIGHT, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTH, AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S N TO THE MID
50S S. A SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MON, BUT MAY USHER
SOME CLOUDS BACK INTO OUR AREA. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA W/ LOW CHC POPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN
VA AND NE NC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER, BUT ALSO MUCH MORE
SEASONAL AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
BUT STILL WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR ACTUALLY SEEING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUE NIGHT AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE QUICKLY DEEPENS AS IT PASSES BY TO OUR N/NE. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFICS SO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
LOW CHC POPS (20-30%) BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THEN, IT
BECOMES DRY WED-THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER NC, AND WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. E TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT IN TERMS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS, CONDITIONS ARE VARIABLE FROM VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VA TO IFR OVER THE FAR NW SECTIONS OF CENTRAL VA, WITH
A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW STRATUS/IFR IN NE NC. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS, EXPECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS TO TREND TOWARDS IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN CIGS INITIALLY, WITH SOME REDUCED VSBYS
ALSO DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE SE. SBY IS THE MOST
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR-MVFR THROUGH 12Z. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA-NC BORDER AT 12Z, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT N, GENERALLY N OF THE REGION BY 18Z. AS SUCH,
EXPECT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO DIMINISH FROM S TO N, EARLIEST AT
ECG WHILE LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY AT SBY. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONT LIFT N
BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE W OF THE MAIN TERMINALS.
WINDS TURN TO THE SW IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN 13-16Z S AND
15-18Z N. MOST OF THE AFTN LOOKS DRY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE W,
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH W WINDS,
(EXCEPT BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN NEAR THE COAST).
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURN MONDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN VA/NC EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMPOSITE FRONT (PARTIALLY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WELL
TO THE NW AND THE MAIN BACK DOOR FRONT) CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND
MOVE SW. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE E OR NE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT FOR THE NORTHERN CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WHILE WINDS
FARTHER SOUTH ARE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. WAVES ARE 1-3 FT
(HIGHEST S AND MOUTH OF THE BAY) WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE EVENING (LOWER
JAMES) AND THROUGH 4AM FOR THE REMAINING ZONES. SEAS HAVE NOT
RESPONDED TO THE STRONGER WINDS VERY MUCH SO FAR BUT EXPECT A PERIOD
OF 4-5 FT SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN THE ENHANCED NE WINDS.
FARTHER SOUTH, NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER, HAVE SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT (HIGHER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS) AS NE WINDS TEND TO
EXCEED GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND SE
10-15 KT AROUND SUNRISE AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASES
TO ~15 KT IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES (ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR 20 NM) ON SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON FURTHER HEADLINES WITH SOME OVERLAP WITH ONGOING SCAS. A
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING W AND
DECREASING TO 5-10 KT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OFFSHORE COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED NW WINDS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ632-634-638-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
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