267
FXUS61 KAKQ 192025
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE GULF COAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE HUNG THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
ISOLD/SCT RA HAS REMAINED SLOW TO DISSIPATE/SETTLE COMPLETELY S
OF THE FA (IN NE NC). CLEARING OR AT LEAST THINNING OF THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...W/ POTENTIAL EXCEPTION FAR S AND SE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
COME BACK OVER THE FA FROM THE WSW LATE. N WINDS TODAY HAVE
USHERED IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND EXPECTING A DRY/CHILLY NIGHT W/
LOWS FROM THE M-U20S N TO THE M30S FAR SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER/THICKEN THU MORNING. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT INITIALLY OVER S AND SW AREAS THEN SPREAD
ENE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. "WARM" NEAR SFC/BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
MAKE PTYPE FCST TRICKY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE RA OR
RA MIXED W/ SN W/ ONLY VERY LGT ACCUMS THROUGH 20-22Z/20. PCPN
RATES/INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE (BY) EARLY THU
EVENING...ESP ACROSS (FAR) SRN AND SE VA INTO NE NC AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT (AS LO PRES BEGINS
TO INTENSIFY OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. RA BECOME SN OVER ALMOST
ALL OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING THEN CONTINUES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAO+ AND STRONG NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
QUICK E STORM MOVEMENT. NAM (BY FAR) HAS THE GREATEST 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND THUS MUCH HIGHER PCPN/SN ACCUM POTENTIAL (OVER
MUCH OF THE FA). HAVE TRIED TO HONE IN FARTHER W/ THE HREF/HRRR
AND GFS/ECMWF WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR 3"+ SN
ACCUMS OVER SE VA/NE NC. THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. LIGHTER SN AND ACCUMS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THE WATCH. A BIT EARLY FOR ADVISORIES AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN
FURTHER PINPOINT ACCUMS BASED ON LATER GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...N WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO
25-35 MPH...ESP TOWARD THE COAST IN SE VA-NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT
(THU NIGHT). HIGHS THU MAINLY 40-45F. LOWS THU NIGHT 20-25F
INLAND TO THE U20S- AROUND 30F AT THE COAST.
HI PRES AND CLEARING OUT FOR FRI...THOUGH COLD W/ HIGHS IN THE
U30S-L40S. REMAINING BREEZY AT THE COAST. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT
FRI NIGHT W/ THE CENTER OF SFC HI PRES ARRIVING LATE...SAT WILL
BE DRY W/ MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS FRI NIGHT FROM THE
L-M20S INLAND TO THE U20S-AROUND 30F AT THE COAST. HIGHS SAT IN
THE U40S-L50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH RESULTANT DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE S-
SW. THIS WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL
AS A RENEWED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH PARENT UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
LATER THIS EVENING (AROUND 23Z-00Z) WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ECG WHERE SCT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH OVC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT
AT SBY/ORF. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN N/NNE AND WEAKEN TO <5 KT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SERN STATES THURS NIGHT THEN OFF
THE COAST FRI. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
THURS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR
S/SE VA AND NE NC ALONG WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THURS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10-15 KTS WITH 15-20 KTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE RUNNING 2-3 FT AND
SEAS 3-4 FT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ANZ658) WHERE
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THAT ZONE.
ON THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY AND OFFSHORE BY THE
EVENING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY. N/NE WINDS WILL INTENSIFY BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND THE REST
OF THE AREA WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS BY
FRIDAY MORNING 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. LATEST WIND PROBS
FOR DUCK BUOY SHOW 80-90% OF GALE FORCE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
SO A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST COASTAL ZONE. THE
REST OF THE AREA WATERS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA WIND CRITERIA.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, CURRITUCK SOUND SCA
STARTS AT 18Z THURSDAY, 00Z FOR THE LOWER BAY AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS, AND 03Z FOR THE UPPER BAY, REMAINING COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
LOWER JAMES.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER
TO THE OH VALLEY. SCA'S WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ092-093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...CMF/JDM
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