315
FXUS61 KAKQ 230200
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES INTO SATURDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 900 PM EST FRIDAY...
LATEST MSAS HAS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SERN STATES
WITH A SFC TROF EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE MTS. MEANWHILE, 1032 MB
SFC HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER MICHIGAN. A STEADY STEAM OF MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (AMOUNTS AOB .10 INCHES) CONTS
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH KEEPING THE NRN NECK/LWR MD ERN SHORE DRY. TEMPS 40-45.
HIGH RES DATA BASICALLY KEEPS THE SAME CONDITIONS GOING THRU 06Z
THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I64. THUS, ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT ACCORDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SW, QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO CHC NORTH
OF I64. STAYING DRY ACROSS THE LWR MD ERN SHORE. JUST ENOUGH DRY
AIR PROGGED TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH TO ALLOW DEW POINT TEMPS
TO FALL A BIT FROM CURRENT READINGS, THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
END UP IN THE UPR 30S-LWR 40S, EXCEPT MID 30S LWR MD ERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...
SAT WILL FEATURE COMPETING INFLUENCES ON LOCAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST. AN IN-
SITU CAD WEDGE AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PCPN HELP TO REINFORCE THE NEAR SFC
STABLE LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TWD THE AREA FM THE SOUTH. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE EXTRM SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD PCPN (POSSIBLY AT
LEAST MODERATE RAIN) IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN THRU
SAT NIGHT, AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE REGION.
WINDS BECOME SE THEN S IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STEADY
RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES. LOWS
SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FM THE UPPER 30S EXTRM NW, TO AROUND 50
EXTRM SE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUN MORNING, THEN PUSH
ACRS THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST SUN AFTN INTO SUN EVENING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY SUN AFTN INTO EARLY
SUN EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
END AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, WITH A CLEARING SKY
EXPECTED FM WEST TO EAST. STORM TOTAL PRECIP WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 0.75-1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE 1.25-1.50" IS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT WET WEATHER, AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME RIVER FLOODING
ISSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LATE-FEB SUN ANGLE
WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN, WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DECREASING
DEWPOINTS AND COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR SUN
NIGHT AND MON, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE NW. CLEAR AND
CHILLY SUN NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SUNNY ON MON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU THURS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. MODELS SHOW A COASTAL TROF
DVLPNG WED. GFS WETTER THAN ECMWF SO KEPT SLGHT CHC SHWRS ALONG
THE COAST WED. MODELS DIFFER FRI WITH THE GFS QUICKLY RETURNING
MOISTURE ON AN INCRG SSW FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF PCPN
UNTIL FRI NIGHT WITH A LOW TRACKING NE ALONG THE COAST. WILL
CARRY CHC RAIN FRI, INCREASING POPS A BIT FRI NIGHT.
HIGHS EACH DAY MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE 30S
TO NEAR 40 SE.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST FRIDAY...
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WAVES OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND HAS PUSHED A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO SC/GA THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SC/GA WILL
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY
15-18Z SAT ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING HEAVIER
RAIN, REDUCING VISIBILITY. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
AREA, CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR AT KPHF/KORF/KECG BEFORE THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW. WIND WILL GO FROM CALM TONIGHT TO E AT
~10 KT TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE.
OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING SUN, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND GUSTY SUN
AFTN.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...
CURRENT THINKING REMAINS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCE ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE NAM A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE 12Z
RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT SOME
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY ON SATURDAY EVENING SO DID TICK WINDS UP A
JUST TOUCH THERE, BUT OVERALL KEPT CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, THE WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
COULD BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AT 925 ARE WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE MIXING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TO HAVE
KEPT GUST IN THE SCA RANGE AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
IS AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE THE MIXING
IMPROVES AND THE WIND GUST COULD BRIEFLY GET TO THE GALE RANGE,
BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS IN THE SCA RANGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT, THE COLD ADVECTION IS REALLY GOOD THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY SO EXPECT TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 20 - 25 KT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GUST WILL NOT BE A GOOD SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
EXPECT GOOD MIXING ON MONDAY SO HAVE HIGHER GUST UP TO NEAR GALE
FORCE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENING, SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
RELAXING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 900 PM EST FRIDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS CONT PORTIONS OF THE JAMES, NOTTOWAY AND MEHERRIN
RIVERS THRU THE WEEKEND. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS
CLIMB AT LEAST INTO ACTION STAGE IF NOT REACHING MINOR FLOOD AT
LOCATIONS LIKE FARMVILLE. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE KEY AS THE
SOIL ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED LEAD TO MUCH OF THE
RAIN RUNNING OFF NOT SOAKING IN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...TMG/RHR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG/CP
MARINE...ESS
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
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