599  
FXUS61 KAKQ 071054  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
654 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO  
SATURDAY. GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
WNW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS AS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION IS SITUATED  
IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL  
CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...A  
WEAK...WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E FROM THE OH VALLEY TO  
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM LATE WED HAS  
DISSIPATED/MOVED OFF THE COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LO PRES WAS FOUND  
INVOF CENTRAL CHES BAY AND WILL BE SLOWLY EXITING OFF THE COAST  
THIS MORNING. ISOLD/SCT PCPN/ WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED  
W/ THAT FEATURE (SUPPORTED BY WEAK S/W ALOFT) IS LIKELY TO  
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER FAR NRN AND NE PORTIONS OF THE FA.  
ELSW...PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE  
TODAY. UNLIKE PAST 2 DAYS...RIGHT NOW THERE IS NO APPARENT  
TRIGGER OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WNW SO APPEARS THAT  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL BE LARGELY ASSOCIATED  
INVOF BOUNDARIES FROM STMS THE PAST 12 HRS...HEATING AND THE  
SLOW PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OVER SRN/SE VA-NE NC. WILL  
CARRY GENERALLY 30-50% POPS FOR N AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...AND  
50-60% LATE THIS AFTERNOON (INTO THE EVENING) OVER FAR SRN/SE  
VA-NE NC.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE TRIMMED A BIT TODAY BUT DEW  
POINTS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE L-M70S. HIGHS TODAY IN THE  
L-M80S ON THE ERN SHORE...OTW THE U80S N AND L90S S AND SE  
(WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE U90S TO JUST  
ABOVE 100F). SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SLGT RISK SVR FOR ALL BUT THE  
ERN SHORE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/POOR  
DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
OVERALL PATTERN (WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK/WAVY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
NEAR THE FA) REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. CONSENSUS OF MODELS  
HAS A MORE DEFINITIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING/REACHING  
THE FA FROM THE WNW BY LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT...DEPARTING SAT.  
FRONT BEGINS TO DROP S SAT. POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM FRI  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO LOWER FRI-  
SAT BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M80S NE TO THE M-U80S ELSW.  
HIGHS SAT IN THE L80S N TO THE M-U80S S. LOWS TONIGHT/FRI NIGHT  
IN THE L-M70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM. THE FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT-SUN.  
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT THAT IMPROVING WX WILL OCCUR SUN THOUGH  
HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC-CHC POPS THROUGH THE DAY SUN...HIGHEST OVER  
NE NC (AS SOME OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOWER WRT  
DRYING). HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TAKE OVER MONDAY  
AND MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT FINALLY STARTS TO  
BREAK DOWN MID- LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING IN OVER THE  
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. SCHC OF SHOWERS FOR W AND N OF  
RICHMOND TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK FRONT  
APPROACHING THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GIVE US A "BREAK" FROM THE  
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MID-80S  
MONDAY. UPPER 80S-LOW 90S RETURN STARTING TUESDAY. LOWS IN THE UPPER  
60S SUNDAY MORNING, MID-60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 650 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY. AN AREA OF SHRAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE  
LOWER MD ERN SHORE...INVOF SBY BEFORE 14Z/07. ALSO...POTENTIAL  
FOR BKN MVFR OVER POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EARLY...ESPECIALLY AT SBY.  
SOME LINGERING MVFR THEN QUITE POSSIBLY LINGERS INTO MID TO LATE  
MORNING. SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS AGAIN  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY AFTER 18-21Z/07. FAIRLY  
SIMILAR TONIGHT- SAT W/ UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL  
ROUNDS OF (MAINLY) AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED. IN  
GENERAL...EXPECT DRIER/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CHES BAY WITH A SURFACE  
TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED  
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A TROUGH WELL TO THE NE OVER EASTERN  
CANADA, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY  
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE BAY AT 5-10 KT WITH S AND SW ~10 KT FLOW TO  
THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE  
BAY ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.  
 
GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE  
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
WINDS BECOME E AND SE 5-15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DOMINATE. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP  
SOUTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, RESULTING  
IN NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT. THE FRONT WASHES OUT TO OUR SOUTH  
ON FRIDAY WITH ONSHORE ENE FLOW BECOMING E AND SE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNSET WITH WINDS TURNING FROM  
THE NE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN  
FROM THE NORTH WITH ~15 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE. SCA  
HEADLINES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHES BAY AND SOUTHERN  
COASTAL WATERS AS NE WINDS RESULT IN 4-6 FT SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS TURNING SE THEN SW AROUND  
THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.  
 
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES TODAY. SURF INCREASES ACROSS THE  
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK  
FORECAST FOR MD/VA BEACHES ON THE EASTERN SHORE.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB  
LONG TERM...ALB/JKP  
AVIATION...ALB/LKB  
MARINE...RHR  
 
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