442  
FXUS61 KAKQ 020605  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
105 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN  
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH  
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
TEMPS AS OF 940 PM GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS DISSIPATING  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE  
LOWER 20S INLAND, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS  
FRI MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S  
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO  
THE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING  
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S.  
HIGHS FRI IN THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S SE VA/NE NC).  
CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT  
MODERATION IS EXPECTED DURING FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE  
COAST AND A LIGHT S FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE L50S  
N AND NW TO THE M-U50S ELSW. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL  
TO OUR NW FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ON  
SAT. MILDER FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL S FLOW AND CLOUD COVER  
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOWS FRI NIGHT RANGING FROM  
THE U30S NW TO M40S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS 4 AM SAT. SHRAS  
CHANCES RAMP UP FROM W-E DURING THE DAY SAT AND WILL HAVE  
HIGHEST POPS (50-65%) ACROSS THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA DURING  
THE MORNING...SHIFTING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL DRY OUT  
QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE FA BY  
SAT EVENING/NIGHT. QPF IS NO HIGHER THAN 0.1-0.25" SAT GIVEN  
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS SAT MAINLY IN THE 60S.  
LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S-AROUND 40F.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUN-MON LOOK DRY NOW W/  
SFC HI PRES RETURNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. COOLER SUN  
THEN MILDER MON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS  
S OF THE FA MON...MAYBE CONTRIBUTING BKN CLOUDS INTO THE LOCAL  
AREA BUT POPS WILL BE HELD BLO 15%. AN ELONGATED LO PRES SYSTEM  
SITUATED TO OUR NW MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT  
POTENTIALLY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WED. TIMING OF THE  
SYSTEM/HOW MUCH RAIN WILL OCCUR REMAIN CHALLENGING. WILL HAVE  
MAINLY CHC POPS FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...TAPERING TO  
SLGT CHC BY WED AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...DRY WX LOOKS LIKELY THU.  
 
HIGHS SUN MAINLY IN THE U40S-L50S. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE  
U20S-L30S...EXCEPT THE U30S-L40S FAR SE. HIGHS MON FROM THE  
L50S N AND W TO THE U50S-AROUND 50F IN SE VA-NE NC. LOWS MON  
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE U30S-L40S...M40S IN COASTAL SE VA-NE NC.  
HIGHS TUE GENERALLY IN THE M50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NIGHT RANGING  
FROM THE M40S N AND NW TO THE L50S SE. HIGHS WED IN THE M-U50S  
NW TO L-M60S SE. HIGHS THU MAINLY IN THE L-M50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC SKIES  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH HIGH  
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD, BECOMING S 5-10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NORTH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. REMAINING VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH CEILING BETWEEN  
10,000 FT AND 20,000 FT.  
 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AS ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON. VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE  
FA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 1015 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5-10KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND  
SEAS HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF TO ~4 FT FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS SO  
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE  
COAST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN  
E-NE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BY  
FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S  
LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THIS  
RECENT FRONT, BUT SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.  
WINDS WILL BE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY  
TIME FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL BE SATURDAY  
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ERI  
NEAR TERM...RMM  
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI  
LONG TERM...ALB/ERI  
AVIATION...CP/RMM  
MARINE...JDM/LKB  
 
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