993
FXUS61 KAKQ 041734
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
134 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING TODAY WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
IS NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASINGLY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS
NOT UNTIL SUNDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE
ALOFT TO OUR WEST BUT BUILDING EAST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE
FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WARMING TREND (AND DRY WX) TO
CONTINUE, AND IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S TODAY, WITH SOME UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WIDESPREAD
READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH SATURDAY CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT, DEW PTS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. IN FACT, AFTERNOON DEW PTS WILL LIKELY BE NO
HIGHER THAN THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING HEAT INDICES
AROUND OR EVEN JUST BELOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS NOT UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS SE FROM
QUEBEC TO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND
LIKELY CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING-MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN
INITIATOR OF ANY CONVECTION, WITH THE PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL MONDAY WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. WHILE IT APPEARED
AS IF THERE WAS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE FRONT TO LINGER NEARBY FOR A
FEW DAYS NEXT WEEK, ALL OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MOVE IT THROUGH
THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR (AND VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP) FROM MON NIGHT-THU. WHILE MODELS REMAIN UNENTHUSIASTIC ON
ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S-
MID 90S W/ 60S DEW PTS. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, AT LEAST A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR.
WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS. REGARDING THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NBM) NOW ONLY HAS A
ONLY A 15-35% PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL (HIGHEST SOUTH). OBVIOUSLY, LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WOULD POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARMER SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE REGION AS OF 18Z. VFR UNDER
A SUNNY SKY WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT N/NE WIND. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A CLEAR/SUNNY SKY. THE
WIND WILL TREND MORE TO THE E/SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT, AND SW 5-10KT FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS (20-40% CHC) ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY/TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY AN E TO NE WIND.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF NE FLOW AND POTENTIAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST. WINDS ARE AROUND 5 KT WITH
WAVES 1 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
OFFSHORE TODAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. A
WEAK PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NE FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE N. SCA CONDITIONS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN A NE WIND, ALONG
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT (HIGHEST S).
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL,
WITH AT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM VA BEACH N, AND A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
IS FOR A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES, WITH A
LOW RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
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