389
FXUS61 KAKQ 141911
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY MONDAY-THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI-SAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HUMIDITY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI-SAT.
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE N AND INCREASED IN ITS WAKE. SOME LAND-BASED OBS ARE MEASURING
WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S AND DEW POINTS HAVE STARTED DROPPING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND ARE SITTING BETWEEN 60-70F, WITH A FEW LOWER 70S STILL
HANGING ON ACROSS NE NC. AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE, ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NE AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH IS SLOW EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH LIFTS OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH
OF OUR NE NC COUNTIES IN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE, THERE IS MINIMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY
DUE TO THE INCOMING DRIER AIR. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH, BUT MOST AREAS ARE STILL SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL START TO DIMINISH ON LAND AND SKIES WILL BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE
50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO LOWS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH LOW-MID 50S
ARE LIKELY IN MANY LOCATIONS TO THE NW OF RICHMOND. DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY COMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE (NEARLY 1030 MB), SETS UP FROM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SW INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S THROUGH WED WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S (LOCALLY WARMER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND E-NE TO THE TN VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THU-FRI. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID- SEPTEMBER, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
80S. LOW END DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS, THOUGH A FEW BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO
15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: STAYING DRY TUES-THU WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXCEPT LOCALLY BREEZY ON TUE ALONG THE COAST IN SE VA AND NE NC.
GENERALLY VFR WITH NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH N WINDS
MAINLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS ~25 KT. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY ARE 2-4 FT
WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS HAVE LARGELY UNDER PERFORMED IN THE
UPPER RIVERS SO FAR TODAY SO HAVE SCA HEADLINES ENDING BY 7PM IN
THESE ZONES. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OR NE
15-20 KT IN THE BAY/LOWER JAMES/CURRITUCK AND 20-25 KT FOR THE
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE ZONES AS MUCH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE THE
WATERS TONIGHT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS IN THE CHES BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND AROUND SUNRISE BUT WILL
LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON ENDING THESE HEADLINES
EARLY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL OFF THAN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH 3-6 FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 4-7 FT IN THE 20-60NM ZONES
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
MODERATE RIPS FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH RISK FOR THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. ALL BEACHES HAVE A MODERATE RISK ON
WEDNESDAY AS SWELL ENERGY PERSISTS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-639-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RHR
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