308
FXUS61 KAKQ 251034
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
634 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, PUSHING EASTWARD TO THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THEN ALLOWS FOR
COOL AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. DRYING OUT AND BECOMING MILDER MONDAY.
2) THERE ARE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR (MAINLY LIGHT) RAINFALL
NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, PUSHING EASTWARD TO THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THEN ALLOWS
FOR COOL AND DREARY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN ALONG
THE COAST. DRYING OUT AND BECOMING MILDER MONDAY.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH SPARKED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
YESTERDAY HAS WAVERED A BIT BACK N THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS PLACE
IT ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR OR PERHAPS A BIT SW.
REGARDLESS, OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE PIEDMONT,
MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY AND MILD UNDER A VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY FOR THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE RANGE WITH THIS FRONT IN PLACE. THE
EASTERN SHORE LOOKS TO STAY IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S, WITH VERY WARM
TEMPS (WELL INTO THE 80S) DEVELOPING W OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. BY THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE W AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES SE ALONG THE
FRONT, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SERVING TO ADVANCE THE PRECIP
EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY INITIATING OFF THE FRONT
ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PRESSURE FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN TERMS OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
INSTABILITY (OVERALL) IS QUITE MEAGER GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND RATHER POOR SFC MOISTURE QUALITY. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MOST MODELS SHOW LOCALLY ENHANCED DEW POINTS AND INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
PROGGED TO RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. BASED ON A
FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE BEST STORM POTENTIAL IS ROUGHLY FROM
WILLIAMSBURG NORTHWESTWARD INTO RIC AND OUR WRN/NW PIEDMONT
COUNTIES, ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ONE MORE THING TO WATCH
FOR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE
AND THE APPROACHING LOW FEATURE. WHILE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, SOME CAMS
ARE HINTING AT A SUPERCELL OR TWO TRYING TO RIDE THE BOUNDARY E AND
SE. IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE, THERE WOULD BE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS VERY LOW DUE TO THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.
AGAIN, THIS IS VERY CONDITIONAL AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA. SPC HAS NO SVR WX THREAT HIGHLIGHTS FOR OUR AREA AT
THIS TIME. SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, WITH THE STORM THREAT DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. AERIAL QPF SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO
THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1"+ ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT
SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHILE BENEFICIAL,
THIS IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE A MEANINGFUL DENT IN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
SFC LOW WILL SLOW DOWN AND MODESTLY DEEPEN AS A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REINFORCE
AND STRENGTHEN TO OUR N. THEREFORE, EXPECT A COOL, DREARY, AND
POTENTIALLY WET DAY SUNDAY WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA AND NE NC. A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAT. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT THE NBM (WHICH
STRUGGLES IN CAD) AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES LOWER. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT CONFIGURATION OF THE SFC PATTERN, PARTICULARLY WHERE
THE LOW RESIDES, MONDAY COULD ALSO END UP BEING COOLER AND
CLOUDIER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. THIS BEARS WATCHING THOUGH
MOST GUIDANCE IS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SUNSHINE AND WARMTH WOULD BE WELL INLAND AND ESPECIALLY W OF
I-95.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR (MAINLY
LIGHT) RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
TROUGHING MAY DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE MIDDLE THE LATER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL FRONTS AND DISTURBANCES POTENTIALLY
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK FAVORS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. 12Z OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP ON
TUESDAY WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY. SPECIFICS BEYOND THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN
BUT CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY HOVER AROUND AVERAGE FOR MID-LATE SPRING WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR AND VARIABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. WHILE VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT SBY AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM W TO E. WHILE SVR WX IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND REDUCED VSBY. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
WINDS AVERAGE E TO ESE ~10 KNOTS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY TO 20-25 KT AT SBY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY
DUE TO CIGS) ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AT SBY AND AFTER ~08Z AT
RIC, ORF, PHF, AND ECG.
OUTLOOK: MVFR TO IFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY
DUE TO MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST MONDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
WITH PRIMARILY VFR.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT AND THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFFSHORE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL VA
RIVERS. UP TO 1 FOOT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MEANDERED
BACK NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE FRONT WAS
EXTENDING NW FROM THE NE NC COAST TO THE LOWER BAY AND FARTHER NW OF
THE LOCAL WATERS BACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY, E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS, ALBEIT WITH STRONGER WINDS AT ELEVATED TERMINALS
THAT ARE MORE EFFECTIVELY TAPPING INTO THE STRONGER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY, SSE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS,
WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO 5-10 KT.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL DIVE SE
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY, WITH THE ATTENDING, TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SERVE TO ALLOW ONSHORE (E-SE) FLOW TO INCREASE TO ~20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES
DURING THE DAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE MD COASTAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, HAVE ADDED AN SCA FOR THE CHES
BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HERE,
E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT. FARTHER
SOUTH, WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SSW OVER THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SW OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
OVERALL TIMING HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AS IT DEEPENS AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE VA CAPES AND DELMARVA
COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SE OFFSHORE
OF THE LOCAL WATERS, WITH THE RESULTANT COMPRESSING PRESSURE
GRADIENT/STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING QUICKLY RAMPING UP N-NE
WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SUNDAY. HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PERIOD OF 25-30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (W/
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT HIGHEST OFFSHORE) FROM SUNDAY MORNING (FAR
NORTH) THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY) DURING THIS TIME. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS (34 KT+) HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED
A BIT LATER IN TIME, OWING TO THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
AT THIS TIME, GALE FORCE GUST (34KT) PROBABILITIES ARE ROUGHLY
40-70% ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER,
HIGHEST TOWARD THE OUTER PORTION OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES AND IN
THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE WATERS. GIVEN THE TRENDS, NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ADD GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE MAINTAINED GALE
WATCHES FOR NOW FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES OUT TO 60NM FROM SUNDAY
MORNING-LATE SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE ZONES (NOT INCLUDING NE
NC) AND PUSHED START OF GALE WATCH TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. HAVE FILLED IN SCA OVER THE
REST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, E VA RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
STARTING SUNDAY MORNING, AND MAINTAINED THE RAMP UP SCA FOR
ANZ654. WINDS DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS SUN NIGHT-MON AS THE LOW
PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE ONLY ISSUED SCA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW, BUT SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WITH N-NE WINDS APPEAR
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING FOR ALL
WATERS. SUB-SCA WINDS FINALLY RETURN ON TUESDAY.
SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT S/5-6 FT N THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BUILDING TO 8-14 FT (HIGHEST 60NM OFFSHORE) BY
LATE SUNDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY CURRENTLY 1-2 FT, BUT GRADUALLY BUILD
TO 3-6 FT (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH) BY LATE SUNDAY. SEAS SLOWLY
DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT 5 FT SEAS COULD PERSIST NEARSHORE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE ALSO QUITE LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
REGARDING THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL, TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 0.5 TO
1 FT ABOVE NORMAL STEADILY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
OWING TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EXITING NE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA. THE
COMPRESSING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
NNE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WAVE ACTION/INCREASING
SEAS (DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL). TIDAL SITES IN THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS WITH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, WITH TIDES REMAINING
ELEVATED INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AT SEWELLS POINT, THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE PER ETSS FOR THE SUN
EVENING TIDE (4.3FT MLLW) IS INTO ACTION STAGE AND NEAR/JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUE (4.5FT MLLW)
AT LOW-END MINOR. A SIMILAR STORY AT LYNNHAVEN (4.3FT 50TH
PERCENTILE, 4.6FT 90TH), WITH THE LATEST FORECAST COMING IN JUST
BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT A LOCALIZED
ROUND OR TWO OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR
AREAS IN THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-634>637-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ650-652-680-682.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ654.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ654-656-684-686.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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