482
FXUS61 KAKQ 140607
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
107 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A MORE
PROGRESSIVE (FASTER) AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. NO
ACCUMULATION TO TRACE AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY AND MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT BREEZE.
2) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WED NIGHT,
AND PASSES BY N OF THE AREA ON THURS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE WED, POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-
ACCUMULATING TO TRACE LIGHT SNOW THURS MORNING.
3) TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...REMAINING DRY AND MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
LIGHT BREEZE.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1028 MB) TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN OVERACHIEVING SLIGHTLY AS SSW WINDS ALLOW A
WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT OBS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE SE
VA/NE NC. DESPITE REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE MILD THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
BUT SSW FLOW WILL REMAIN, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S (LOWER 50S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WED NIGHT,
AND PASSES BY N OF THE AREA ON THURS. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE WED, POTENTIALLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-
ACCUMULATING TO TRACE LIGHT SNOW THURS MORNING.
THE 12Z/13 MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE A FASTER, DRIER SOLUTION FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM. A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE GULF COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT OUR AREA
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS IN THE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
REGION. QPF TOTALS REMAIN VERY LOW WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH AS MOST MOISTURE GETS HUNG UP ON THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OR
PULLED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN STREAM, RESULTING IN THE COLDER AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE WHICH THIS PATTERN RARELY RESULTS IN TANGIBLE
SNOWFALL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THIS, ANY SNOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP
THURS MORNING WILL ONLY PRODUCE UP TO A TRACE AMOUNT. WILL NOTE, THE
12Z/HRRR DEPICTS COOLER AIR MOVING IN FASTER, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, BUT THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM CONTINUOUSLY
BRINGS THE COLDER AIR SLOWER (WHICH WAS OBSERVED WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM), SO THERE'S VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR AT THIS
POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BEHIND THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WED/THURS, STRONG CAA WILL BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THURS
AND FRI WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS, ADDITIONALLY WITH NEAR
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY
POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THE NEXT PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA SAT/SUN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE FRONTS ONCE
AGAIN LOOK TO CARRY LITTLE MOISTURE TO THE AREA AS THEY
PROGRESSIVELY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, UNABLE TO TAP INTO ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH
NOW ONLY SLIGHT POPS (15-20%) DURING THE DAY SAT AND AGAIN ON SUN.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL BRING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 105 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/14
TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FROM
RIC TO SBY. W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SOME LOW- LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AT RIC AND SBY,
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LLJ LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH THE
CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. DESPITE THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS, SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS FROM ORF TO ECG THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DAMPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING ALONG THE SE COAST INTO THE SE THIRD OF
THE AREA. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A PROB30 FOR SOME SHRAS AT ECG, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AT ORF HAS LEAD TO KEEPING THAT
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WILL RE-EVALUATE FOR 12Z TAF.
OUTLOOK: THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ENDING AS SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES BEFORE ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THU MORNING, AS A
SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SW WINDS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
STRONG NW WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH END SCA
OR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N GREAT LAKES. SSW WINDS WERE
GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES E TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING SW LOW-LEVEL JET,
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. THE ONLY
CHANGE WAS TO START ALL SCAS AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. SW WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED (BUT BELOW SCA CRITERIA) WED INTO WED EVENING
AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT
AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E INTO NEW ENGLAND,
WITH ANOTHER LOW LIKELY FORMING IN NEW ENGLAND TO THE S OF THE
PARENT LOW. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW,
ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS TO 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THESE
ELEVATED WINDS LIKELY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS CAA MAXIMIZES.
HIGH-END SCA TO LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAA. WILL NOTE THAT THE HRRR AND ARW SHOW GALE
CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED
BY AN SMW (IF SHORT IN DURATION) OR GALE WARNING (IF LONGER IN
DURATION). WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT HAVE INCREASED TO 30-45% ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE BAY EARLY THU MORNING BUT REMAIN <10% FOR THE
REST OF THE CHES BAY AND MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS (15-35% ACROSS
THE N COASTAL WATERS). AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ISSUE GALE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND FOR HIGHER WINDS
CONTINUES, A GALE WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A PORTION OF THE
LOCAL WATERS (GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE N WATERS).
WINDS QUICKLY SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE ELEVATED SW FLOW RETURNS LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH SCAS LIKELY. THE CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS PUSHES THIS FRONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCA
HEADLINES POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME W/NW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WERE 2-3 FT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY. SEAS
AND WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED SEAS AND WAVES RETURN WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TIDES
GENERALLY TREND LOWER BY THE 17TH (SAT) WITH LOW WATER (AND LOW
WATER ADVISORIES) POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LOW WATER IS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY, JAMES RIVER,
YORK RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...HET/MAM
MARINE...RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page