491
FXUS61 KAKQ 120103
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
903 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
COOLER WEATHER TO COASTAL AREAS. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY...
- CLEAR AND A BIT MILDER TONIGHT.
~994 MB STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHWEST, 1018 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST, WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALOFT, RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING PUSHES E FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TONIGHT, THOUGH THE FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL. AFTER A MILD
DAY, TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING, UNDER A CLEAR SKY. A FEW LOWER 60S REMAIN
NW OF RICHMOND, WHILE A FEW UPPER 40S ARE PRESENT ON THE EASTERN
SHORE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE QUEBEC INTO ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED (DRY) COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY WED. THE QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW (SSW) WILL MAKE FOR A
MILDER NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES PART OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S NEAR THE COAST.
- THE FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE
DAY TOMORROW, WITH THE ASSOCIATED (DRY) BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
EVENING. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SYNOPTIC SETUPS, THERE WILL
BE A DECENTLY SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL, WITH AREAS
ALONG THE MARYLAND ATLANTIC BEACHES FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
(MAINLY S OF US-460) REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, WITH FAR S VA
INTO INTERIOR NE NC LIKELY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES.
THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA IN BACKDOOR FASHION FROM WED
MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE
FARTHER NORTHEAST YOU ARE, THE EARLIER HIGHS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS THE FRONT DROPS SW FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR SW TIER OF COUNTIES. SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVER
THE EASTERN SHORE, NORTHERN NECK AND VA PENINSULAS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO HAVE THE LOOK OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL, OWING TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT WILL HOLD THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. EITHER WAY, A CHILLY AND RAW NIGHT TYPICAL
OF MID-MARCH IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A WILDCARD WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS. THE FRONT STILL WILL BE IN THE REGION...ALL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE FROM 12Z/11 HAS THE FRONT NEAR OR N OF THE VA/NC BORDER
TO BEGIN THE DAY, LIFTING IT NORTHWARD, THOUGH REMAINING STALLED
OVER N PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. THE NAM REMAINS THE
OUTLIER IN KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND HENCE THE ENTIRE
AREA COOLER. THE OTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING ASHORE OF BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL RIDE THE FAST, FLAT FLOW ALOFT AS IT CROSSES THE
MID- SOUTH AND CAROLINAS THU AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE LEFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, THERE VERY WELL COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM
THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER IN THE DAY
THU AND THU NIGHT. HAVE ACCORDINGLY NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A BIT THU
BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S N OF RICHMOND, TO UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND MID 70S FOR FAR S VA AND N NC.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN FEATURE LOWS IN THE 40S, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FORM IN THE MIDWEST LATE
THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST OF THE
US. COOLER AIR WINS OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDING COOLER. HIGHS
HAVE DECREASED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE COOLER AIR PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH WITH HIGHS NOW IN THE MID
50S ON THE EASTERN SHORE, LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST AND BAY,
AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL VA/INLAND NC. AS THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND, LOWER 70S ALONG THE WATER,
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OF THE MIDWEST
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA, TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA (MID 60S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE), WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY.
SPC HAS INCLUDED ALL OF THE CWA IN A 15% DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WITH ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOWING A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY (50-90%)
OF QPF BETWEEN 0.5-1.0 INCHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE
PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DRYING OUT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WON'T BRING A VERY COOL AIR MASS WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S FOR THE AREA (LOWER 60S FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE).
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE 00Z/12 TAF PERIOD. SKC THIS EVENING
CONTINUES INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS
S THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE N AND THEN NE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE, THOUGH SBY AND ORF COULD SEE SOME 10-15 KT WINDS. THE
WIND DIRECTION MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED W/ THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH GUIDANCE MOST AGGRESSIVE ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF FOG, MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SUB-VFR IS SUNDAY ALONG/AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PULLING AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WINDS LOCALLY ARE GENERALLY FROM THE N OR NE 5-10 KT N AND 10-15 KT
S WHERE THE GRADIENT REMAINS STEEPEST THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY ARE AROUND 2 FT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE RANGING FROM 3-4 FT N TO
5-7 FT S.
EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REGION. SCA HEADLINES FOR SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7AM WEDNESDAY BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SEAS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING AND SWING AROUND TO THE S AND SW TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, FORCING A
BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE AREA THAT WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GET BEFORE STALLING. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BE
PREVALENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH S AND SSE WINDS 5-10 KT FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY DIVING SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH WAVES IN
THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING S AND SW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR
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