457  
FXUS61 KAKQ 090722  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
322 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH  
FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NEAR  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST  
COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND  
NORTH OF I-64.  
 
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT TODAY, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH  
THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, GIVEN THAT AREAS THAT  
HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-4" OF RAIN COULD SEE LOCALIZED TOTALS OF  
3-4" TODAY. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA.  
 
- THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS 4-8 PM IN THE PIEDMONT,  
7-10 PM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND AFTER 10 PM CLOSER TO  
THE PENINSULAS AND IN SE VA/NE NC.  
 
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE  
GREAT LAKES TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY, WITH UPPER RIDGING OFFSHORE. A  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR NW. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE MCV  
RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE  
MIDNIGHT, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIGHT BEHIND IT (IN WSW FLOW ALOFT) IS  
TRACKING ACROSS VA AND IS PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR THE  
ONGOING TSTMS. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED 2-4" OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT  
(ESPECIALLY FROM CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO THE RIC METRO WHERE FFWS WERE  
ISSUED). TSTMS HAVE FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING...AND EXPECT  
THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
WHILE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH  
EARLY/MID AFTN...ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTN  
THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER  
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY, ALLOWING UPPER HEIGHTS TO  
FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT TO OUR  
NW WILL WASH OUT...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THAT  
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. GIVEN THE  
RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT  
(WITH PWS ~ 2.0"), THERE IS CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA, THE VA NORTHERN NECK,  
AND MD EASTERN SHORE. BEFORE ANY TSTMS ARRIVE, TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100-104F. TSTMS  
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST DURING THE AFTN AND WILL BE MORE  
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE  
STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN LINE AND WILL LIKELY CROSS  
THE PIEDMONT BETWEEN 4-8 PM BEFORE IMPACTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR  
BETWEEN 7-10 PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST  
AROUND OR AFTER 10 PM BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN (ALTHOUGH THEY  
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU AM BEFORE COMPLETELY  
DISSIPATING). ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC  
THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE THAT HIGH.  
 
SEVERE WX (MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS) IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE  
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE STORMS WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO PEAK  
HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY  
(AROUND 25 KT NORTH/20 KT SOUTH). DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS HEATING THAN  
YESTERDAY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG. SPC HAS  
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) WEST, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) EAST.  
 
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE BIGGEST AND MOST CONCERNING THREAT THIS  
EVENING IS THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH PWS AS HIGH  
AS THEY WILL BE, THE TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3" OF RAIN  
IN AN HOUR OR LESS. LOCALLY, UP TO 4" FELL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,  
CENTRAL VA, AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE ARE THE SAME AREAS THAT  
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH  
LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3-4" POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SAME  
LOCATIONS. THE 00Z HREF HAS 30+% PROBS OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS OVER  
THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE ABOVE, WPC HAS UPGRADED AREAS  
FROM I-95 WEST TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL, WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COMMON FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A  
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FARTHER  
E/SE WHERE LESS RAIN FELL AND/OR IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT FLOOD  
WATCH (IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT) FOR THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA LOOKS  
GOOD...AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. THE  
WATCH COVERS AREAS AS FAR SE AS WAKEFIELD/WILLIAMSBURG/YORKTOWN.  
AFTER STORMS EXIT, LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
LATE EVENING ON THURSDAY.  
 
-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.  
 
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE  
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING TO  
OUR EAST ON FRIDAY. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTING A BIT TO THE  
SOUTH. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 80S-90F...WHICH WILL LESSEN THE  
SEVERE THREAT (BUT SPC STILL HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS). GIVEN THAT PWS WILL STILL BE AROUND 2.0" ON THURSDAY (IN  
ADDITION TO THE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TODAY), WPC  
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME UPPER HEIGHT RISES ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY  
(ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY).  
ADDITIONALLY, THE SWATH OF 2.0"+ PWS WILL BE SHUNTED TO OUR SE BY  
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SO WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY A THREAT FOR FLOODING,  
IT WON'T BE AS HIGH (OR WIDESPREAD) AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY/THU.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRI/SAT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
A MORE SEASONABLE (BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED) JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE  
WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA, WITH DECENTLY FAST ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN  
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUN-TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM  
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED. EXACT DETAILS ARE  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE RAIN  
EXPECTED FROM TODAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL  
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR RIC, AND WILL IMPACT RIC  
(AND PERHAPS PHF) BETWEEN NOW AND 08Z. THE TSTMS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 08Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED  
UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTN. NUMEROUS TSTMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TO OUR  
WEST DURING THE AFTN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING  
THE EVENING (GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-04Z). WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED  
PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC/SBY/PHF...BUT HAVE NOT AT ORF/ECG WHERE  
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOWER. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS IN +RA AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND GUSTS  
OF 25-30+ KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN  
5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS  
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP  
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING.  
 
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS FROM TONIGHT-FRI  
(ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~06Z THU). SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH THU  
AND FRI, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND  
FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- S AND SW WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS IS LIKELY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE  
IS RESULTING IN SW WINDS 10-15 KT. SOME LINGERING CONVECTION  
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT (HIGHEST N).  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BUT THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A  
BIT THIS EVENING AS THE INLAND/LEE TROUGH SHARPENS. THIS COULD  
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA WINDS THIS EVENING, MAINLY  
IN THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. LOCAL WIND PROBS SUGGEST A 30-  
40% CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL HOLD  
OFF ON ISSUING ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A  
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LOW. SW WINDS OFFSHORE  
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT NORTH  
OF CAPE CHARLES. STRONG STORMS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW ALOFT THAN WAS PRESENT  
YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN MARINE  
THREATS FROM STORMS THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND SMWS WILL BE ISSUED AS  
NECESSARY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WEEK BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS LIKELY AGAIN ON  
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY AND THURSDAY. AN  
INCREASE TO MODERATE RIP RISK IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES  
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, HOWEVER.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ064-075>078-084>086-  
517>522.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT  
FOR VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-509>516-523.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET  
NEAR TERM...ERI  
SHORT TERM...ERI  
LONG TERM...ERI/HET  
AVIATION...ERI  
MARINE...RHR  
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