708  
FXUS61 KAKQ 250158  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
958 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE ALONG  
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM OFF THE EAST  
COAST OF FL. THE NHC HAS NAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA NORTH OF  
BERMUDA, HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN OUT TO SEA WITH NO IMPACTS TO  
THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE  
CWA. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDS  
OFFSHORE STREAMING INTO THE COAST OF EASTERN NC. TEMPERATURES  
AS OF 955 PM RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S W TO THE UPPER  
50S E (OUTLIERS INCLUDE UPPER 40S IN LOUISA AND MID 60S ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST). DEW PTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID  
50S. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT INLAND WITH A FEW MORE  
CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE WATER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. HAVE AGAIN GONE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE  
FOR LOWS GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR  
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 F  
ACROSS THE INLAND 2/3 OF THE CWA, WITH LOW TO MID 50S TO THE  
EAST (AND LOCALLY LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE SE).  
 
ON SAT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER  
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E/SE. THIS UPPER  
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME INCREASING (MAINLY HIGH) CLOUDS BY THE  
AFTN (ESPECIALLY N). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
BY SAT EVENING, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER  
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH  
AND MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY  
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SO NOTHING MORE THAN SOME ADDITIONAL  
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
NOT QUITE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND AND  
WITH SOME MIXING EXPECT LOWS MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.  
 
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MAINLY SUNNY AND  
CONTINUED PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG WITH LOW  
HUMIDITY. CLOUDS INCREASE N OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT/MON AS  
SFC HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE  
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY 50-55F THOUGH A FEW UPPER 40S  
WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER MON AS  
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS  
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY QUIET, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME  
NUANCES THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED MAINLY DUE TO THE COMPLEX  
PATTERN UPCOMING LATE NEXT WEEK. EARLY IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE SHOWS A  
CONTINUED TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE  
OF THE COUNTRY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH  
THE AREA TUE NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW-  
MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
 
AMAZINGLY, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS IN  
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE RETROGRADING CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING  
SOUTH AND WEST ALONG OR NEAR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
EXACT DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, HOWEVER THE SURFACE  
PATTERN BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY DUE TO A STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH.  
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO WRAP INTO AT LEAST AREAS CLOSE TO  
THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR THE MOISTURE WRAPPING LEADS ME TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS TO THE  
COASTAL AREAS, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE (CLOSER TO  
THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM) FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY FORECAST IN  
THE LOW TO MID 70S WHILE FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND UPPER  
60S COASTAL EASTERN SHORE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF  
PERIOD. THE NAM SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FOR ORF/ECG  
EARLY SAT MORNING, BUT THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CLOUDS  
FARTHER OFFSHORE SO WILL KEEPS ALL OF THE TAFS VFR FOR NOW.  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (<5 KT) AND GENERALLY N OVERNIGHT (ECG IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NNE 5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS  
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO ~5 KT). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE  
NW/W BY SAT AFTN ~5-7 KT (EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE A LIGHT ONSHORE  
FLOW CONTINUES). CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
FROM W TO E FROM LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WITH VFR  
CIGS EXPECTED.  
 
OUTLOOK: DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND  
AND THROUGH MON/TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND  
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA, EXTENDED THE SCA'S OVER THE SRN COASTAL  
WATERS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS. SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT THROUGH  
THE NIGHT.  
 
PVS DSCN:  
LATE THIS AFTN, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLC  
REGION. WINDS WERE NNE 5-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, BUT  
15-20 KT OVER THE NE NC WATERS. WAVES WERE 1-3 FT AND SEAS WERE  
3-6 FT. SCAS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN WATERS WILL SLOWLY END  
EARLY THIS EVENING OR BY LATE TONIGHT, AS WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE TO  
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT INTO AT LEAST SAT  
EVENING, AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. A  
BRIEF UPTICK IN NW WINDS (TO NEAR 15 KT) WILL OCCUR LATE SAT  
NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THE  
LOCAL WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT EVENING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
APPEARS RIC WESTHAM HAS CRESTED AROUND 11.2 FT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM  
SHORT TERM...LKB/RHR  
LONG TERM...RHR/MRD  
AVIATION...LKB/RMM  
MARINE...MPR/TMG  
HYDROLOGY...  
 
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