115
FXUS61 KAKQ 090533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD PATTERN TO THE N AND NE OF HURRICANE ISAIAS,
WITH A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF TX. SUNNY SKIES ARE EVIDENT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED CU OVER THE PIEDMONT AND HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO NE NC FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION WELL IN ADVANCE OF ISAIAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM TODAY WITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S,
WHICH COULD STILL RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY BEFORE REACHING
THE HIGH. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS
TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE COAST BOTH DAYS. NOT NECESSARILY
IMPACTFUL, BUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 4-8F COOLER
THAN NBM GUIDANCE FOR LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
(LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S NBM VS. MID/UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S MOS). DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AND THEN PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS
ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL AND MERGES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN VICINITY OF
THE MID-SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING HAS INCREASED SOME AS THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL, SHOWING THE 06-12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SHOW PW VALUES AOB 200% OF NORMAL ALONG WITH A PLUME OF
INSTABILITY SURGING N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR AREAS AND THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THERE
IS STILL SPREAD BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE QPF IN THE
12Z/08 ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, BUT AMOUNTS GENERALLY TRENDED UP. IN
GENERAL, THE 10TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLE LOW-END) ACCUMULATED PRECIP
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY IS 0.25-0.75", WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 2.0-4.0". THE 50TH PERCENTILE (MOST LIKELY CASE) SHOWS
A GENERALIZED 1.0-2.0" OF RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THERE IS A HINT IN THE GUIDANCE
OF MORE ENHANCED RAINFALL ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF A
COASTAL TROUGH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A BAND OF DRIER AIR SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A LARGE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, AI GFS,
AND THE CMC ALL HINT AT PORTIONS OF INLAND AREAS ONLY RECEIVING ~1.0-
1.5" WITH TOTALS NEAR THE COAST AMOUNTING TO ~2.0-4.0". THE COASTAL
TROUGH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST AN IN SITU WEDGE RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
DEEPER MOISTURE ERODES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
LINGERING POPS AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE LATE
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z/09 TAF PERIOD. BKN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD OFF
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THESE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT N/NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM AN AFTERNOON INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TO 5-10KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY DUE TO RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKS THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
THE DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING S THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTN,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N-NW AT UP TO 10 KT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FOR A FEW HRS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT COLD AIR IS LACKING WITH THIS SURGE, SO NO SCAS WILL BE
NEEDED. LIGHTER WINDS BECOME E-NE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN SETTLING OVER THE AREA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
IN 2-3 FT RANGE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
BE 1-2 FT.
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PUSH N, AND IS IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED LOCALLY, THE
INTERACTION OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO INCREASED E-SE FLOW FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE PEAK IN WINDS (20-25 KT W/
GUSTS TO ~30 KT) OCCURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS SHIFT
SLOWLY TO THE S-SE. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE TO
5-8 FT (UP TO ~10 FT WELL OFFSHORE), WITH 3-5 FT WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY (HIGHEST LOWER BAY) REGARDLESS, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, SHIFTING N THROUGH THE AFTN, BUT GALE
WARNINGS ARE UNLIKELY. THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE W-NW
MONDAY IN THE LATER HALF OF MONDAY, WHILE ALSO GRADUALLY
DECREASING. A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ELEVATED NW WINDS POSSIBLE BUT
TIMING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/SW
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