880
FXUS61 KAKQ 152331
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
731 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND HEAT RELATED HEADLINES FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1110 AM EDT MONDAY...
A TOLERABLE AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE L60S-L70S
OVER THE FA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DOWN A FEW DEGS F FROM THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL. AS EXPECTED...ISOLD CONVECTION
BUILDING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WRN VA ATTM...A COUPLE OF
THOSE MAY SURVIVE INTO FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING.
SFC HI PRES NNE OF THE LOCAL AREA ATTM DRIFTS OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING FROM NNE TO SSE AND THE
GRADUAL RETURN OF HIGHER DEW POINTS. MOSTLY SKC TONIGHT...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FG LATE MAINLY OVER SOME RURAL INLAND
AREAS. LOWS FROM THE U60S-L70S INLAND TO THE M70S ALONG COASTAL
SE VA-NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...
WHILE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASS WELL W-N OF THE
REGION TUE-WED...SFC HI PRES BECOMES REESTABLISHED OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SE CONUS COAST...RESULTING INCREASED MOISTURE/DEW
POINTS AGAIN. POPS (BY TUE AFTERNOON) RISE TO 30-50%
INLAND...15-30% AT THE COAST. HIGHS TUE 90-95F...EXCEPT U80S AT
THE BEACHES (HEAT INDICES BACK TO THE M90S-103F AWAY FROM THE
(IMMEDIATE) COAST).
SW FLOW OF VERY WARM/HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT- WED W/ ONLY MINIMAL (DIURNAL) RAIN CHANCES. LOWS TUE
NIGHT IN THE L-M70S. HIGHS IN THE M90S INLAND...U80S-L90S AT
THE (IMMEDIATE) COAST.
BEFORE (EVEN) HOTTER WX ARRIVES (LATE WEEK-WEEKEND)...A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THU WHICH POTENTIALLY
CAUSES ANOTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION (THU AFTERNOON/EVENING).
OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY W/ LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN THE M-U70S.
HIGHS THU IN THE L-M90S.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY WED-THU AFTERNOONS...MAINLY E
AND SE PORTIONS (AWAY FROM THE COAST) AS HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR EXCEED 105F (BASED ON DEW POINTS IN
THE L-M70S).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A TYPICAL MID JULY/SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS HI PRES SFC-ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
SE/MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON W THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH RIGHT NOW THAT THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST
PERIOD OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...HOT/HUMID
DURING THE DAY...VERY WARM/HUMID AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD (W/
AOB CLIMO DIURNAL POPS (BLO 30%) - EXCEPT MAYBE A BIT HIGHER BY
MON). HIGHS FRI-SUN 95-100F...LOCALLY U80S-L90S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS 75-80F. HEAT ADVISORIES (HEAT
INDICES 105-109F) AND/OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS (HEAT INDICES
110F+) ARE LIKELY FRI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND (DEPENDENT UPON
FUTURE DEW POINT FORECASTS). WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE HOT WX MAY BEGIN
TO BREAK AFTER MON AS HI PRES BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT
PRESSES TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN W OF RIC. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH VSBY 3-5NM. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING (30-40%) AT
RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG AND LESS THAN A 20% CHC AT SBY. THE WIND WILL BE
CALM TO VERY LIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME S AT 5-8KT TUESDAY.
THE CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
ONLY A 20% OR LESS CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY. THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS BUMPS UP SLIGHTLY TO 20-30% THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING
AND THEN DROPS BACK TO 20% OR LESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND WITH
LITTLE COOL AIR BEHIND IT, IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING TO NOT MUCH
MORE THAN A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 5 - 10 KT RANGE OUT
OF THE N TO NE AS THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE DELMARVA.
THE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND JUST GRADUALLY TURN TO THE E -
SE OVERNIGHT.
THE WIND WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 - 10 KT THROUGH OUT MUCH OF
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
BY WEDNESDAY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL TRY AND REESTABLISH ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE
FROM WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT, MAY
NEAR 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS,AND WAVES AND SEAS INCREASING TO
AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY AND 2 TO 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WANE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
AS A WEAK TROUGH KNOCKS DOWN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PUSHES THE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY OFF SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10KT
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS
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