788
FXUS61 KAKQ 061149
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
649 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED
TODAY WITH QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WHILE IT
STARTS OUT MILD FOR MOST, QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SHORE ALL DAY.
2) WARMER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO IN THE
FORECAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSES THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TODAY.
WHILE IT STARTS OUT MILD FOR MOST, QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SHORE ALL DAY.
THE STUBBORN BOUNDARY/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN NEAR
THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL VA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S N AND E OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
ARE EVEN COOLER (IN THE 40S) ON THE EASTERN SHORE. RATHER MILD
S OF THIS FEATURE, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 60S AT THIS HOUR. THIS
FRONT WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST TODAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE (AND FASTER) PUSH OF COOLER AIR
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
EASTERN SHORE AND NEARSHORE COASTAL AREAS ON THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NECK. ON THE SAME NOTE, THERE IS ALSO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS IN INTERIOR SRN VA AND NE NC
(PARTICULARLY THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS S AN SW) SEEING VERY
WARM, BORDERLINE SUMMER-LIKE, TEMPS BY THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS, THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION
WILL DETERMINE THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME. FOR EXAMPLE, THE PLAUSIBLE
RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
RICHMOND RANGES FROM 68 TO 78 F. BASED ON THE CURRENT FRONT
POSITION, THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE IS FAVORED. REGARDLESS,
EXPECT MOST HIGH TEMPS TO BE REACHED ON THE EARLY SIDE WITH
QUICKLY FALLING TEMPS (AND INCREASING CLOUDS) BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. COASTAL PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS COULD FALL IN THE
40S BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALL WHILE AREAS 50-100 MILES TO THE W
ARE IN THE MID 80S.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW-END CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACROSS
CENTRAL VA AND THE PIEDMONT, BUT A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD
SQUASH ANY (LIMITED) SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. A FEW MODELS DO SHOW
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD RESIDE, BUT THIS POTENTIAL ALSO SEEMS
QUITE UNLIKELY. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES TODAY ARE HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL WITH POPS 30% OR LESS. CHILLY FOR MOST OF THE AREA
BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND POINTS NE, WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 F SW. FOG (LOCALLY
DENSE) IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE ALSO IN
THE FORECAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AND THE CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND TO THE 60S TO
LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE NAM TRIES TO HANG OUT TO THE COOLER
AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, DELAYING ANY WARMUP UNTIL THE
EVENING. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER, THE POTENTIAL IS NONZERO
AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE LIKELY STALLING AND
DISSIPATING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S (60S TO LOW 70S COAST AND EASTERN SHORE).
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE MILD WITH A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE FOR SE VA
AND NE NC ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL FEATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSES
THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, LIKELY
PEAKING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD (INLAND) HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST,
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN REACH AT RIC AND POTENTIALLY ORF
WITH BOTH SITES HAVING CURRENT RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ON BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
(AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS) AS WELL AS A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS (W/ SCT CIRRUS) ARE IN PLACE AT ORF, RIC, AND PHF
AS OF 12Z. IFR-LIFR CIGS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF SBY AND
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. A POORLY MODELED
SHIELD OF IFR LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO MADE ITS WAY INTO ECG, THOUGH
DON'T THINK THIS STICKS AROUND FOR TOO LONG. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAS ALREADY MOVED
THROUGH ORF AND PHF WHERE THE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED AND WINDS HAVE
BECOME E-NE. SBY ALSO REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
W/ E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
THROUGH ECG LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IN LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON AT ORF AND PHF AND IN THE EVENING AT RIC AND ECG.
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE LIFR-VLIFR WITH ALSO INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR DEGRADED VSBY IN FOG. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG TONIGHT
IS ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES BACK N, FOLLOWED BY RAIN/SHOWER (AND A FEW TSTM)
CHANCES SAT EVENING/NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR MON-TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 210 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE FOG REMAINS A CONCERN FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR SCAS IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH S-SW
WINDS.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS CENTERED FROM THE MIDDLE BAY TO VA EASTERN
SHORE. WINDS ARE SW AT 10-15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH N-NE WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KT TO THE NORTH. FOG REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MD
COASTAL WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS
ZONE UNTIL 7 AM. COULD SEE THE FOG PUSH INTO THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS (MOST LIKELY N OF CAPE CHARLES) TOWARD SUNRISE AS THAT
BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. WILL EXPAND MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS NEEDED. THE FRONT MEANDERS NEAR THE LOWER
BAY/SE VA COASTAL WATERS TODAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-
SCA. THE BOUNDARY DROPS BACK TO THE SW LATER TODAY AND CROSSES MOST
OF OUR INLAND ZONES BY LATE EVENING. WINDS LIKELY BECOME E-NE 10-15
KT BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS AS NE WINDS DIMINISH. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH
1/2NM VSBYS TONIGHT TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES FOR A
COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE FROPA TODAY AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES BACK
TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR S-SW FLOW TO RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SCAS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SAT NIGHT AS SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH ~5
FT SEAS (ESPECIALLY N), WITH SCAS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND RIVERS DUE TO 20-25 KT GUSTS. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.
DISCUSSION...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
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