634
FXUS61 KAKQ 042258
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) CONTINUES FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT REMAINING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EASTER SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND FREEZING POSSIBLE AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EASTER SUNDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SOME DIURNAL CU AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND, AND LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WIND
IS SW 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
CHALLENGED AND COULD EVEN BE SET (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).
REMAINING BREEZY AND WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL FORM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT-SUNDAY AM. THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO BRING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
PORTIONS TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS AND LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE SE PORTIONS. WITH THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION, THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
FOR THE HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH THE NW SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND THE SE SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80F. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HINT TOWARDS MORE MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S TO NEAR 65F. THIS COULD BRING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH THE FRONT IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY/BETTER SURFACE HEATING IS LIKELY.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AS WIND PROFILES LOOK TO BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
POOR LAPSE RATES.
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE 0.25-0.50" ON AVERAGE, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS, MAINLY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. WHILE TOTALS
OF ~1" ARE UNLIKELY, ANY RAIN IS WELCOME, AS A LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA IS UNDER A MODERATE DROUGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A SW WIND
WILL GUST TO 25-30 MPH IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND FREEZING POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE 60S (50S AT THE COAST) AND MID 50S N TO MID 60S S
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY, PROVIDING A REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHICH
WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DUE TO THE NE FLOW. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AM
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY AM FOR AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS STARTED. AT THIS TIME, WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
AROUND FREEZING POSSIBLE, WITH EVEN UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMONT, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THAT
OCCURS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE AS OF 00Z. VFR WITH PRIMARILY
CLEAR SKIES AND A SW WIND OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SUNDAY
WITH A 10-15KT SSW WIND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AND A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. A SW WIND
OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A LINGERING CHC OF SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A SECONDARY, BUT DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS GO INTO EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING FOR THE BAY, THE TIDAL
RIVERS, AND OCEAN N OF CAPE CHARLES.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE TO THE SE AND LOW PRESSURE IS
WELL TO THE NW OVER MI. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DECENT MIXING CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN PERSISTING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY. LATEST OBS SHOW SSW WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT. BUOY OBS INDICATE SEAS ARE 3FT AND WAVES IN THE
BAY ARE 1-2FT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN
WATERS, BUT THE LIMITED FETCH WILL TEND TO KEEP THEM CAPPED AT
3-4 FT TO THE SOUTH WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. SCAS FOR THE BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS GO INTO
EFFECT AT 10PM TONIGHT WITH THE RIVERS JOINING EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS WITH
N-NW WINDS LIKELY SUN NIGHT- MON AM WITH CAA FOLLOWING THE
FROPA. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS CAA SURGE, AND WITH AN
EXTENDED TIMEFRAME OF SUB-SCA WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, HAVE ENDED THE CURRENT SCAS PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT (WITH EXPECTATION THAT AS WE APPROACH THAT
PORTION OF THE EVENT ADDITIONAL SCAS MAY BE NEEDED). ALSO
EXPECTING A FEW STORMS WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL OF COURSE
BE HANDLED WITH SMWS AS NEEDED.
WEAK/TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DIMINISHING WINDS MONDAY,
BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER MARGINAL SURGE OF N-NW WINDS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO NEARLY 1040 MB LAGS BEHIND AND WILL
SETTLE INTO THE THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC REGION TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED. THE ADDITIONAL CAA AND PRESSURE RISES WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS, AND
WITH THE DIRECTION BEING MORE FROM THE NE, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO
BUILD MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO AT LEAST 5-6 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN
OCEAN ZONES, BRINGING MORE HEADLINES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY, 4/4:
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
SAT (4/4) 87/2011
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
SAT (4/4) 86/2025
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
SAT (4/4) 83/1999
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
SAT (4/4) 88/2025
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...AJB
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