304
FXUS61 KAKQ 240135
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
935 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 935 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CI CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...OTW NEAR CALM AND NOT AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
LOWS IN THE L-M50S INLAND TO THE U50S AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURS AHEAD OF THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE
AND SFC TROF WELL AHEAD OF BETA'S REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE SHOWING PCPN DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MTS AND ENCOUNTERS
THE DRIER AIR FROM THE OFFSHORE RIDGE. WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT SHOW A
HIGH PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LATEST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RAIN SHIELD FARTHER NORTH WITH
RESPECT TO THE LEFTOVER TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BETA. DATA NOW SHOWS
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING TROF THEN SPREADS EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CARRY CHC POPS (HIGHEST IVOF AVC) AFTER MIDNITE.
SLGHT CHC TO THE NE. QPF BY 12Z LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S-LWR 60S.
COMBO OF INCREASING PW'S AND RATHER DECENT LIFT WILL RESULT IN ANTHR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRI AS THE SYSTM MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE DATA SHOWS THE LOW ACTUALLY WEAKENING,
IT ALSO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS IT TRACKS EAST. IN
FACT, INSITU-WEDGE APPEARS TO DVLP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH SOME
POCKETS OF MDT RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN VA. THUS, INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY, EXCEPT FOR THE LWR MD ERN WHERE HIGH CHC POPS REMAIN.
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID-UPR 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE
LWR 70S ALONG THE COAST. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
I64 IN A DAY3 ERO. QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1/2-1 INCH IVOF THE I64 CORRIDOR
RANGING TO BTWN 1-1.5 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF I85.
RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THE SE COAST FRI EVE, THEN TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT
RAIN AFTER MIDNITE. OTW, CLOUDY WITH LOW IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
TROF LINGERS ALONG HE COAST SAT. ANY SHWRS GRADUALLY MIGRATE TOWARDS
THE COAST AND END ACROSS THE WEST. SOME PARTIAL SUN IS PSBL IN THE
AFTRN AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 70S. PT CLDY/DRY SAT NITE. LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A SFC TROF SETS UP ALONG THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION. MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR
WITH RESPECT TO JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE PCPN
(EVEN WITH THE FRONTS). ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL THE TIME, WILL
CARRY LOW CHC POPS (20%-30%) EACH DAY. HIGHS SUN/MON/TUES IN THE UPR
70S-LWR 80S. LOWS SUN NITE 65-70. LOWS MON/TUES NITE IN THE MID 50S-
MID 60S. HIGHS WED IN THE UPR 60S-LWR 70S.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z/24 TAF FORECAST PERIOD
AS HI PRES SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY THU. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB
TONIGHT, THEN SW AOB 10 KT THU. LO PRES TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS LOWER AS SHRAS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. HI PRES REMAINS OFFSHORE SAT-SUN WITH ONLY A LOW CHC OF
SHRAS.
MARINE
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 1 FT. SCAS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEAS. SEAS ARE 4-6
FT AND CONTINUE TO COME DOWN. SCA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST.
THE REMNANTS OF T.S. BETA WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE S 10-15 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY BECOME NORTHERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE RETURNING TO AN
OFFSHORE FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3FT, AND WAVES IN THE BAY 1-
2 FT.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WARNING EXPIRED AT SEBRELL AS IT FELL BELOW FLOOD STATE LATE THIS
MORNING. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AT FRANKLIN.
SEE FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ AND WEATHER.GOV/AKQ FOR MORE SITE-SPECIFIC
INFORMATION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...CP/TMG
HYDROLOGY...
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