487  
FXUS61 KAKQ 110631  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
231 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
NEAR THE COAST TODAY, WITH ISOLATED STORMS AT MOST INLAND.  
 
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. THERE  
ARE NOT ANY WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES LOCALLY, BUT BERMUDA HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. TSTMS HAVE DISSIPATED, WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS IN NE NC. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HELPED TO PROVIDE  
THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR CONVECTION THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL SHIFT  
OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES. IT WILL BE  
SEASONABLE TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER-MID  
70S. DESPITE THE HEIGHT RISES, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNCAPPED  
WITH MLCAPE RISING TO ~2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH VERY  
WEAK SHEAR). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (SLOW MOVING) TSTMS WILL LIKELY  
DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTN ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE  
COAST, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO INLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT  
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO, WITH LOCALIZED URBAN/FLASH FLOODING  
POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE LOWER DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE, THE HREF STILL  
HAS A 10% PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS NEAR THE COAST LATER  
TODAY GIVEN THE VERY SLOW EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS. TSTMS QUICKLY  
DISSIPATE AFTER 9-10 PM, LEADING TO WARM/HUMID WX TONIGHT WITH LOWS  
IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM THIS  
WEEKEND AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.  
 
- HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE UPPER HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
AS RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A VERY WEAK  
BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN SHORE ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS IN  
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE HOTTER ON SATURDAY WITH LOW TO  
LOCALLY MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND AND MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-104F IN  
A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES  
LOWER THAN WHAT'S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL  
CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND (LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
BACKDOOR FRONT) AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE UNCAPPED AND MOIST.  
WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY, LOCALIZED  
FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A LOW-END  
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXISTS ON BOTH DAYS (MAINLY DUE TO  
HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AS THE FLOW ALOFT/SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY  
WEAK).  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE  
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE STRONGER WESTERLIES  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, A SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS  
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED  
COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH  
ANY STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE FLOODING, ALTHOUGH EXACT DETAILS ARE  
HARD TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUE.  
UPPER RIDGING THEN TRIES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM TUE-THU,  
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH  
DAY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME  
OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F), ALTHOUGH IT MAY WARM UP A BIT BY  
NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY (BUT VERY LIKELY NOT TO THE LEVELS THAT WE SAW  
DURING OUR JUNE HEAT WAVE).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS HOUR, WITH PATCHY IFR  
STRATUS NOTED. THE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD DURING THE 07-13Z TIMEFRAME, BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT  
IT WILL BE PREVAILING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THUS, HAVE ACCOUNTED  
FOR IT W/ TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS. ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS  
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN/EVENING ONCE  
AGAIN...WITH ONLY 20% POPS AT RIC. FOR NOW, HAVE ADDED VCSH TO  
PHF/ORF/ECG TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE  
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. BRIEF LIFR VSBYS (DUE TO +RA) ARE  
LIKELY IN ANY TSTM.  
 
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF LOCAL  
INFLUENCES FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  
 
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES TODAY.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND,  
AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A  
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW W AND SW WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME  
SE 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES OFFSHORE  
THIS WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING ENE OR E SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS NEXT WEEK. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE  
1-2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. COVERAGE OF  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM WILL CONTINUE  
TO POSE LOCALIZED THREATS OF GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES  
(INCLUDING OCEAN CITY) AS SOUTHEASTERN SWELL ENERGY INCREASES TODAY.  
THERE IS A LOW RIP RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES. ALL BEACHES RETURN  
TO LOW RIP RISK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPWELLING ALONG THE NORTHERN NC  
OBX HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT WITH WATER TEMPS RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER  
60S OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL  
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI  
NEAR TERM...ERI  
SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC  
LONG TERM...ERI/KMC  
AVIATION...ERI  
MARINE...RHR  
 
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