534
FXUS61 KAKQ 081104
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
704 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW/SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS LOCALLY, WITH A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NW FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNDER HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIG SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO SW PA AND WESTERN WV.
HOWEVER, SOME SEMBLANCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS
LOCALLY EVIDENCED BY LITTLE TO NO HEIGHT FALLS TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH A QUASI-WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL VA TO THE EASTERN
SHORE ALLOWING LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT TO E/SE, ESPECIALLY
E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE DAY FEATURING LIMITED INSTABILITY ABOVE
A DEEP WELL MIXED BL. BY LATE THIS AFTN, ISO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WARM
FRONT PRIMARILY N AND NW OF THE RIC METRO. OTHERWISE, PARTLY
SUNNY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
W, AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER BY THIS EVENING. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. THIS IS MAINLY FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS GIVEN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL. THIS WOULD
MAINLY BE FOR THE INITIAL TSTMS AND PRIMARILY W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN GENERAL,
CAMS SHOW DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT WITH
THUNDER PROBABILITY DECLINING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
QPF THROUGH 12Z/8 AM FRIDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN 0.1" SE TO
0.25-0.5" NW WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.
LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A MILD AFTERNOON.
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
IN GENERAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, BY LATER MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY S OF A FVX-RIC-WAL LINE GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,
ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. N OF THIS LINE, AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
TSTM RISK. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WITH
WITH A MARGINAL (5%) RISK FOR BOTH. ADDITIONAL QPF FRIDAY IS ON
THE ORDER OF 0.25-0.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTMS.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F N, TO THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80F S.
COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A QUICK END TO SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM NW-SE. TEMPERATURES
COOL TO THE MID/UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER/MID 50S LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. FORECAST LOWS
HAVE BEEN NUDGED BELOW NBM TOWARD THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL AND DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME.
THE 00Z/08 EPS/GEFS EACH CONTINUE TO LINGER A CUT-OFF LOW IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE LOCAL AREA AS IT SHIFTS
SE FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED S OF THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
IS LIKELY BY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ARE NBM VALUES, WHICH RANGE THROUGH
THE 50S. HOWEVER, IF THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THIN OR REMAIN
SUPPRESSED S LOWS COULD BE COOLER. SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE MID-
SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AND TIMING REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AS OF 11Z. VFR UNDER
SCT CIRRUS WITH A CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP N AND NW OF RIC AND W OF SBY
VERY LATE THIS AFTN, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z/09 IS VERY LOW. A LIGHT S/SW WIND DEVELOPS
THIS MORNING AND BACKS TO E/SE 5-10KT BY THIS AFTN. ISO-SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PRIMARILY VFR TONIGHT WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS. PROB30 GROUPS CONTINUE AT RIC AND SBY FOR TSTMS,
WITH PROB30 ADDED FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR ORF AND PHF, AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WEATHER FOR ECG AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, BUT HAVE
OPTED NOT TO BE AS AGGRESSIVE AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH
SUGGESTS IFR CIGS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW IN THE MORNING
AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THIS WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND SOME LOCALLY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY AFTN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION. PRIMARILY VFR
INTO MONDAY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE SW.
MARINE
AS OF 334 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE AROUND 1 FT, WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
DURING THE DAY TODAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FLOW TO BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE LAND LEADING TO A
SEABREEZE INFLUENCE. WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, WILL
LIKELY INCREASE A FEW KNOTS DURING THIS TIME, AS WAS SEEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A DECENT CAA WIND SURGE BEHIND
IT LEADING TO POSSIBLE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN
THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES IN THE BAY WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT
SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SUB-SCA
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WINDS
DECREASING QUICKLY IN RESPONSE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
EARLY MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 3 FT, WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL
TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND WINDS OF 10-15 KTS TO
OCCASIONALLY INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
MARINE FORECAST ZONES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/NB
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