489
FXUS61 KAKQ 131825
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
RECORD TO NEAR- RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE HAS SETTLED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST
COAST, AND WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WILL LOCK IN
A VERY WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THIS BERMUDA HIGH SET-UP, MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID SUMMER,
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F TOMORROW, WITH LOW 90S (TO ISOLATED MID
90S) WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEK.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE CURRENT RECORDS AT OUR
LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES NOTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE STRONG HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, ANY FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION
WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN ITS WAKE. MEANWHILE, BUILDING EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
FINALLY SERVE TO BREAK THE HEAT RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AHEAD. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH STATE FORESTRY OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WEATHER OFFICES, WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FURTHER
INCREASED FIRE STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE BREEZY RETURN
FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW, WINDS/GUSTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH
TOMORROW. THAT SAID, RH VALUES ARE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DRY, AVERAGING 25-30% INLAND, 30-35% CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OVERALL THOUGH, FIRE WX CONDITIONS REMAIN A BIT ABOVE CRITICAL
FIRE WX THRESHOLDS TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH GENERALLY ONLY
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. BREEZY SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AVERAGING ~15-18KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, RELAXING TO ~8-10KT
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. LLWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN THIS
EVENING AT KSBY, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LINGERING LLJ. CROSS
WIND CONCERNS EASE CONSIDERABLY AT KSBY AFTER 06Z/TUESDAY.
BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT MUCH LESS SO
THAN TODAY, WITH SSW WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KT, GUSTING TO
~15-20KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SSW WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE UPPER
RIVERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AS SUCH, WINDS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
SW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AROUND 10-15 KT. HOWEVER, A
PERIOD OF STRONGER SW WINDS REMAINS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT (LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND). AS SUCH, SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND UPPER RIVERS. SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM TUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 4-5 FT SEAS AND GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH THU
OUTSIDE OF OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS EACH EVENING.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THU EVENING/THU NIGHT
DUE TO ELEVATED SW WINDS, HOWEVER, THIS SURGE APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ISN'T
UNTIL SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT AND 3-5 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVES AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AND 2-4 FT RESPECTIVELY LATER
TONIGHT, REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH LATE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS ON THU NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...ERI/RMM
CLIMATE...MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page