274
FXUS61 KAKQ 082038
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- REMAINING WARM SUNDAY AND BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH IS ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PARTIAL SUN THROUGH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 70S.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS WARM FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW-NE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS,
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 60-70%, ESPECIALLY IN
THE E, AND 30-50% W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A STRONG MID-
LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV, SO A SLIGHT CHC
OF THUNDER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED DESPITE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.1" W TO
0.25-0.5" E. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT, LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE EASTERN
SHORE, AND MID 50S IN SE VA/NE NC.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT N OF THE REGION. A LULL IN
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
AREAS NW AND MID 70S FOR AREAS SE (UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE). SOME UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES USHER IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, ARRIVING FROM THE W LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING E THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS TO BE
GENEROUS, AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK DESPITE STRONG
SHEAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL LEAVE MONDAY IN A MUCH COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE LOWER 50S (DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE).
OVERNIGHT A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20 FOR
MOST AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE. THE
08/12Z ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO HINT TOWARDS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME. CHILLY DRY AND BREEZY TUESDAY WITH A CANADIAN
AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE CHILLY
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BEGIN DAMPENING LATER TUESDAY, WITH THE
TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA CAUSING A STARK CONTRAST IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES THE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD RESULT IN
RATHER DRY DEWPOINTS THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR WITH A LIGHT GENERALLY WNW WIND, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY VARIABLE. CLOUDS INCREASE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE, BUT REMAINING VFR. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CIGS DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 09/09Z, AND QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR AT MOST SITES AFTER
10-11Z. REDUCED VSBY IS ALSO EXPECTED IN HEAVIER RAIN. CIGS LIFT
LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS THE WARM FROM LIFTS N OF
THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE WIND BECOMES SSW
8-12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS AT RIC LATER IN THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING A
20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, BECOMING DRY, VFR, AND BREEZY MONDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. VFR/DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT (5-10KT) THIS AFTERNOON AND VARY IN DIRECTION BEHIND
THE WEAKER COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY.
SEAS ARE 2-3FT AND WAVES ARE 1FT OR LESS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS TURN TO THE SE AND PICK UP JUST A TAD TO AROUND 10KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW
THROUGH THE DAY SUN AT 10-15KT. ANOTHER, MUCH STRONGER, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE FRONT MAY BE HAVE GUSTY WINDS. THE INITIAL NW SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE 15-20KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MON AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SCAS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8
TO -10 C) OVER STILL-RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS
APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED
ON LOCAL WIND PROBS, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE OCEAN (60-80%), BUT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (20- 30%), PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY. DID NOT ISSUE GALE WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE SINCE THE
ONSET TIME IS STILL ROUGHLY 60 HOURS OUT, BUT WATCHES ARE LIKELY
TO GO UP TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
IN THE EVENING. SCAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD WITH 20-25KT WINDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5FT EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN TO 4-6FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHEST SEAS
CLOSER TO 20NM OUT. SEAS DROP BELOW 5FT LATER IN THE WEEK. WAVES IN
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2FT SUNDAY, 2-3FT MONDAY, AND 3-5FT TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
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