450
FXUS61 KAKQ 230845
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS
DAY, AND WILL BRING COOL AND DAMP TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND TURNS WARMER AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN MAINLY
DRY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE EAST COAST, WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY RISEN 3-5
DEGREES SINCE MIDNIGHT, AND ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AS THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH JUST
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY TIMEFRAME FOR ANY
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN SUNRISE AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I- 95 CORRIDOR WHERE
THE QPF IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (THOUGH STILL MINIMAL AT AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS). IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM WSW- ENE THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH BREEZY WSW FLOW AT
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
POTENTIALLY BE AROUND 60F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IF CLOUDS CLEAR
EARLY ENOUGH. FARTHER NE, FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR.
NOT AS COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N
TO THE MID 40S S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY WEDNESDAY, REMAINING MILD BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WED WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN
THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 50F OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF SE VA/NE NC WHERE LIGHT
N TO NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. FARTHER INLAND,
IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. PLEASANT CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING
RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS. THE LATEST NBM AND
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE
GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SW. THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY WILL ULTIMATELY BE CRUCIAL IN AFFECTING
TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S NE TO THE 40S S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 340 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DAMP FRIDAY, THEN SLOWLY TURNING MILDER SATURDAY.
- WARMER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIALLY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN VICINITY OF
GREENLAND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL MODELS
TO BECOME RATHER STRONG OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC
CANADA IN BETWEEN THE 2 RIDGES. THIS A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL RESULT
OF THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION),
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
STALLING AND BECOMING QUIASI-STATIONARY JUST S OF THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NBM HAS
FINALLY "CAUGHT UP" TO THE TREND THAT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST 24-36 HRS. WHILE
THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR WILL BE DIRECTED MORE N AND NE OF
THE LOCAL AREA, FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE CHILLY AND DAMP WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH). THERE ARE EVEN SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING LOW-END
PROBS FOR ~1" OF SNOW ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE FRIDAY, THOUGH
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ALL RAIN WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE
SURFACE HIGH AND BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT TO THE
NE SATURDAY, SO CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE LOCAL
AREA). THE LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST AND
AMPLIFIES. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH THEN DIGS SE AND DEEPENS AS IT REMAINS
IN VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY (WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE SE). A CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING, BRINGING
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS, THOUGH THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT W/ MINIMAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND CIGS
MAINLY STAYING ABOVE 3K FT. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING
BETWEEN 15-18Z, WITH AN INCREASING SW WIND FOR THE AFTN (10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT). SOME LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR A
3-5 HR PERIOD THIS AFTN AT PHF/ORF/ECG WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET
BRINGS WSW WINDS TO 45-50 KT. OTHERWISE, WINDS DIMINISH BY LATE
IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. DRY
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A LOW END CHC FOR SHOWERS CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH SBY HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHC FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A ~1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE THE AREA THIS MORNING. S WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KT,
BECOMING SW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY BEGINNING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE
MIDDLE BAY AND 10 AM FOR THE LOWER AND MOUTH BAY. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, BUT THIS
SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE ONLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, SO HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING SCA FOR THIS. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE W AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 10-15 KT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AFTER SUNRISE TO 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 15-20 KT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA.
MARGINAL SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES. BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. ONCE AGAIN, WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EVENING WEDNESDAY,
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSING THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-3 FT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS, INCREASING TO 1-3 FT AND 2-4 FT, RESPECTIVELY,
TODAY AS THE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. WAVES AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY INCREASING
LATE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ631-632-634.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...KMC
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