450
FXUS61 KAKQ 021923
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
323 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED/CONTINUED FOR ALL VA AND
MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES (EXCLUDING THE MARYLAND BEACHES)
TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEAT INDICES OF 110F OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED.
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NE NC COUNTIES FOR
FRIDAY, AS WELL AS FOR THE MD BEACHES.
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NE NC COUNTIES
(EXCLUDING EASTERN CURRITUCK) FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN
BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI-SUN.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIALLY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI-SUN.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOMINANT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY BEFORE STARTING
TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE FOR THE
LOCAL AREA, POTENTIALLY THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND OF LONGEST DURATION
SINCE JULY 2012. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE BETWEEN 90-99F, WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING OBSERVED
IN THE NW PIEDMONT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, DEW POINTS HAVE NOT MIXED
OUT QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED AND HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED, SO HEAT
INDICES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO EASILY CLIMB TO 100F, WITH SOME AREAS
BETWEEN RICHMOND AND LOUISA SEEING A HEAT INDEX OF 110F+. GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER IS HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS THE RIDGE IS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA, SO THE
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOCKED IN PLACE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE AREA COULD SEE HEAT INDICES OF
105F+. DUE TO THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
HEAT EXPECTED, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
PLACE TODAY TO THE REMAIN OF OUR VA COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NE NC COUNTIES,
INCLUDING EASTERN CURRITUCK AND THE MARYLAND BEACHES. MOST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEW POINTS MIXING OUT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH
HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, HOWEVER, WITH BOTH YESTERDAY AND
TODAY SEEING INCREASING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS (NOT TYPICAL), WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY TO MORE ACCURATELY
REPRESENT TOMORROW'S HEAT INDEX/WBGT. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
SPECIFICS, TOMORROW WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT SO PRECAUTIONS NEED TO
BE TAKEN IF VENTURING OUTDOORS. WHILE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THIS WILL BE
VERY CONDITIONAL ON IF STORMS CAN ACTUALLY DEVELOP. SINCE THERE IS
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN STORMS TOMORROW, HAVE NOT FACTORED THEM INTO
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES,
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AND THE RIDGE STARTING TO TRY AND BREAK DOWN, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ALIGN WITH ALL GUIDANCE,
WITH WIDESPREAD 95-100F+ DEGREES CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS IS THE
REASONING BEHIND THE EXTENSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER IN NE NC, SO DECIDED TO
ISSUE AND EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR ALL OF THOSE COUNTIES (EXCLUDING
EASTERN CURRITUCK) FOR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S,
WITH URBAN AREAS ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 75-80F. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE HEAT.
SPC HAS UPGRADED MOST OF THE ASIDE FROM NE NC AND FAR SOUTHERN VA
TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
DCAPE/INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT BECAUSE OF THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, THE HEAT LOOKS TO
LINGER FOR ONE LAST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH UPPER
90S TO LOCALIZED AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE LAST ROUND OF TRIPLE
DIGITS. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY, SO HAVE NOT EXTENDED ANY HEADLINES TO
INCLUDE THIS DAY. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK IN THEIR EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT ONCE AGAIN BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE AREA IS STILL
IN A DROUGHT, THE SLOW MOTION OF STORMS AND HIGH PW EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIALLY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NW AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. AS THIS OCCURS, THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN, WITH HIGHS FINALLY TRENDING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND S-SW WINDS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-10
KTS, THEN WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT ANY TERMINAL
THAT SEES ANY OF THIS CONVECTION.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, S-SW WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, AVERAGING 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, BUT WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE RUNNING
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SOME DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY IS LIKELY
TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (MAINLY S-SW IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING S-SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING). ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE ONLY
THING THAT WOULD LEAD TO BRIEF HIGHER WINDS. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET, AND SEAS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
DROP OFF TO 1 TO 2 FEET TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKENDS
NEARSHORE WAVES DROP TO ~2FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1953 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 100/1901 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 99/2014 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 97/1953 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: THU 7/2 FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 76/2014 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2018 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 77/1968 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 76/2014 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-509>523.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ065-066-079-
087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ065-066-079-087-092-097>100-524-525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AJB/LKB
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ
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