620
FXUS61 KAKQ 242332
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
732 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE
FORECAST AND EASTERN SHORE WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. GALE POTENTIAL
MAY LINGER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO LINGER
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER.
2) WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3 FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY POTENTIALLY SEEING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO LINGER
ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. COOL, CLOUDY, AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY AS WELL AS LIGHT MISTY SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORIES ARE STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES INCLUDING NORFOLK AND PORTSMOUTH FOR GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45MPH. DANGEROUS SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR
TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE
SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECTING SOME
CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE PIEDMONT BY THE MORNING AND
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE AT THE
COAST, THICK CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THAT LOW. TEMPS TONIGHT DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S
IN WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. COOLER TEMPS
CONTINUE TOMORROW, THOUGH PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER WHERE THE SUN CAN
PEEK THROUGH WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY REGARDING THE TRACK
OF THE NOR'EASTER. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND THE HIGH RES MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE WEST INTO
THE COAST, BUT THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THAT WOULD
HAPPEN. SOME MODELS TAKE THE CENTER LOW UP TO NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS TAKE IT INTO NEW
JERSEY. THE LATTER WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND LINGERING
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30MPH (HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST) FOR SATURDAY, BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IT ON THE EASTERN
SHORE IF THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION PERSISTS IN THE MODELS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INLAND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHILE THE COOLER TEMPS IN THE 60S PERSIST ON
THE EASTERN SHORE. SIMILAR TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVING US A BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO WARM MORE EACH DAY WITH THE RIDGING OVERHEAD. ON MONDAY,
EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MID-WEEK, WE MAY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN (MID 80S) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3 FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY POTENTIALLY SEEING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST, WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY
TODAY OVER THE REGION, NOW CLOSER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF NE.
IN ADDITION, THE SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. HOWEVER, THIS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CHANGE THE
COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION WITH MOST SITES CURRENTLY SEEING ANOMALIES
OF 2.5-3.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TODAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR ANOMALIES TONIGHT AND
EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THESE ANOMALIES COMBINED WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LIKELY KEEP SIMILAR FLOODING AS HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED FOR THE LAST FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
OVERALL, STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE 12Z RUNS
INSIDE THE BAY SATURDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODELS DEPICTING THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BEING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE N-NW FLOW INSIDE THE BAY LEADING TO MORE EBBING
AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY COULD SEE INCREASED WATER LEVELS WITH A
BETTER ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE THE TIDES SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIDE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, SO WE WILL NOT EXTEND THE WARNINGS INTO
THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WARNINGS
WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 731 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY CONTAINED
ACROSS SE VA AND NC NC WHERE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE
PERSISTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT IMPROVE BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, STRONG NE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KT WILL
PERSIST AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CIGS MAY
IMPACT COASTAL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SBY, INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT ACROSS THE BAY, AND AT LEAST FRIDAY OVER THE OCEAN.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-45 KT OUT OF THE
NNE. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST
UNCERTAINITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH RESPECT TO THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW. GIVEN THIS, A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
10-16+ FT SEAS, AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS 1034MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE QB.
MEANWHILE, ~1007MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL E OF THE OUTER
BANKS. STRONG NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KT (POTENTIALLY 40-45KT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS),
AND SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. SEAS RANGE FROM 8-10FT
NEARSHORE, TO 12-16+FT IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH TO
~25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT ON THE BAY TONIGHT, AND 25-30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 KT ON THE OCEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(TEMPORARILY?) RELAXES DUE TO THE WEAKENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW OFFSHORE. THAT LOW IS
STILL PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS
NNE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE IT DEEPENING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND
TRACKING TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRONG
SCAS ACROSS THE BAY FRIDAY-SATURDAY AM WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING
FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES). HOWEVER, SOME THE 12Z GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES DOES HAVE IT RETROGRADING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
IRONICALLY THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE COMPARED TO THE 00Z.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID GALES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS (AND GALE GUSTS ON THE BAY) STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH EARLY SAT AM, AND POTENTIALLY STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. OUR LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW A 20-40%
CHC OF 34+ KT GUSTS ACROSS THE BAY FRI AFTN-FRI NIGHT (WITH PROBS OF
5-20% FROM LATE TONIGHT-MIDDAY FRI). THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL 20-40%
CHC OF 34+ KT WINDS, AS THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT ARE
VERY DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE NEW GALE
WATCHES FOR THE CHES. BAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE 40-60% PROBS FOR >48KT
GUSTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF PARRAMORE IS., SO STORM WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS RUN
THROUGH LATE EVENING FOR THE UPPER BAY AND PART OF TONIGHT FOR THE
LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES. THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE OCEAN SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE TWO NORTHERN NEARSHORE OCEAN ZONES.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE COASTAL LOW, THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NNW BY FRI NIGHT/SAT WITH WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISHING SUNDAY AND LIKELY FALLING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY MONDAY.
DANGEROUS SURFING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME NNW. LOCALIZED BEACH/DUNE EROSION IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING FOR NOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ017-102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100-530-
531.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
081-082-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ083-084-
518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ097-098-
525-529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-631-639.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-684.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ680-682.
STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ680-682.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ686.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ688.
DISCUSSION...AC/MRD
AVIATION...AC/HET
MARINE...AJZ/ERI
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