770  
FXUS61 KAKQ 071933  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
333 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A STRONG  
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN RAIN AND BREEZY  
CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT, PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.  
 
- LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHED OFFSHORE BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,  
WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY AS OF LATEST ANALYSIS.  
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ARE FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S  
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT IS STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BREEZY  
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A FEW  
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO ~20MPH OBSERVED.  
 
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT, WILL SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM  
NW TO SE. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TONIGHT IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO  
NORTHWESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY  
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND SLIDING SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  
MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED MOSTLY ON EASTERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOST WIDESPREAD  
ON THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN SHIFT TO THE S/SE AS  
THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE OFFSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD  
SEE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE SE AS WELL. REGARDING QPF, DID  
SEE A DOWNWARD TREND FOR CENTRAL VA WITH THE 12Z MODELS. NOW  
ANTICIPATING 0.1-0.2" OR LESS. THE MD EASTERN SHORE LOOKS TO GET THE  
MOST WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-0.75". THE 12Z HREF DID KEY IN ON  
THIS AREA WITH LOW END PROBS FOR AN INCH OF RAIN, SO COULD CERTAINLY  
SEE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF AN INCH OR SO. OTHER EASTERN COUNTIES  
HAVE A QPF RANGE OF 0.25-0.5". LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.  
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID-  
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH, AS HIGH AS THE LOW 80S NEAR THE  
ALBEMARLE SOUND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH 30S ACROSS OUR NW  
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AM.  
 
WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WED  
NIGHT INTO THURS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW RETURNS AS AN UL  
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S N AND W OF RICHMOND AND RANGING THROUGH THE 50S  
ELSEWHERE. MUCH COOLER THURS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER  
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THURS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 30MPH AT THE SE COAST, 20-25MPH ELSEWHERE. CHILLY TEMPS THEN  
EXPECTED THURS NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE AS COLD AS THE UPPER 30S IN THE  
FAR NW, RANGING THROUGH THE 40S FOR OTHER INLAND AREAS, AND IN THE  
50S IN THE SE/NEAR THE COAST. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DID  
SUGGEST TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN THE NW, WHICH CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT GIVEN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL NEED TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORIES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- A COASTAL LOW IS POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND AND MAY BRING RAIN AND  
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.  
 
COOL, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE STRONG  
HIGH SLIDES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 60S AGAIN AND STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.  
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW IS  
INTRODUCED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS DECENT  
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW FORMING AND THE GENERAL LOCATION OF FORMATION,  
BUT DETAILS ON IMPACTS ARE STILL FUZZY. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER  
EXTENT THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN, THOUGH, MAINTAINS THAT THE LOW  
STRAYS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND TAKES ITS RAIN WITH IT. HAVE  
MAINTAINED THE NBM SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY,  
WHICH YIELDS CHNC POPS (HIGHEST EAST) STARTING SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY. ALSO EXPECTING WINDY  
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY AT THE  
COAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON  
MONDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT  
AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 155 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THIS CHANGES LATER TONIGHT,  
THOUGH, WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING  
AND LIKELY DO NOT IMPACT TERMINALS (RIC AND SBY FIRST) UNTIL  
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE RIC  
TAF, BUT WILL MENTION THAT MORNING HIGH-RES MODELS TRENDED DOWN  
IN PRECIP COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE, SBY COULD SEE  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD IMPACT VSBYS. EXPECTING  
CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW  
MORNING. ECG DOES NOT LOOK TO DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE 18Z TAF  
PERIOD, THOUGH. DID SEE SOME SIGNAL FOR IFR CIGS, BUT WANT TO  
SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE GOING TOO LOW  
WITH THOSE. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT,  
BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK: SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A BREEZY NNE WIND AT THE COAST CONTINUING  
INTO THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF  
SUB-VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF  
WINDMILL POINT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
 
- A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINING ELEVATED  
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WHILE UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOP LATER  
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, RIDGING TO  
THE SW INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS  
ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS 10-15 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT  
ARE NOTED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS EVENING AHEAD  
OF THESE FEATURES WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR OUR  
NORTHERN CHES BAY ZONE (N WINDMILL PT) WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT  
FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH. OFFSHORE, WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KT OVER THE  
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR A DECENT PERIOD TONIGHT BUT SEAS ARE  
FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE SO NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES HAVE  
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
THE POTENT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE  
WATERS WEDNESDAY (LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS).  
AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE N IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH  
A WIND SURGE BY THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN AND  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
VICINITY. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST  
LIKELY SCENARIO WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE  
GUSTS DURING THE 10PM-2AM PERIOD WHEN IT APPEARS POST-FRONTAL  
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOCAL WIND  
PROBS FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT REMAIN BELOW 20% FOR LATE  
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT WARM LOCAL WATERS AND INCOMING COLD/DRY AIR  
MAY ALLOW STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN THE  
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL,  
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG  
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURES OFFSHORE OF THE  
CAROLINAS. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SCA CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE  
BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A REPRIEVE FROM THE WIND IS POSSIBLE  
FOR THE MIDDLE/UPPER BAY AND ADJACENT RIVERS FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THEN 6-9 FT BY THURSDAY.  
 
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS  
AGREEMENT ACROSS NEARLY ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL  
GUIDANCE THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL  
TROUGH SATURDAY, DRIFTING NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE  
OF OUR COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE  
LOW SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONG AND WITHIN THE GLOBAL  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS  
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW LIFTING NORTH AND STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY AND  
DOING SOME KIND OF PIROUETTE NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW OCCLUDES ON  
MONDAY. EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD  
OF SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP  
THE LOW SUPPRESSED WELL OFFSHORE WITH FEWER IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL  
WATERS. HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST BUT NOT AS  
MUCH AS THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT. STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ARE  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME  
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM CONDITIONS IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE  
GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO  
AT LEAST 9-13+ FT WITH WAVES 6-9 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
OTHER THAN NUISANCE FLOODING NEAR BISHOP'S HEAD, MD THIS AFTERNOON  
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED  
WITH MODERATELY STRONG NE WINDS, MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS  
ADJACENT TO THE LOWER CHES BAY AND TIDAL YORK/JAMES ON THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,  
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB  
NEAR TERM...AC  
SHORT TERM...AC  
LONG TERM...AC  
AVIATION...AC  
MARINE...RHR/SW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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