020
FXUS61 KAKQ 132347
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
747 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY TONIGHT.
HIGHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
2) MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID SATURDAY, SEASONABLE SUNDAY
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, THEN HOT AND HUMID WITH
AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY TONIGHT.
HIGHER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE SURFACE
TROUGH IS STRETCHED FROM THE NE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, DEW POINTS ARE
PRETTY SIMILAR, WITH LAND-BASED SITES REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE LOWER DEW
POINTS, HEAT INDICES ARE LARGELY IN THE LOW-MID 90S, WITH UPPER 90S
IN NE NC. THERE IS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
KAKQ RADAR NOT DETECTING EVEN A SHOWER ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
OVERNIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MULTIPLE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECAYING MCS
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS
A GRADIENT, WITH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AND EASTERN SHORE, THEN 90-95F FROM RICHMOND SOUTH (HIGHEST IN NE
NC). WITH THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND DECAYING MCS, HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NE
NC EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY HIT A HEAT INDEX 105F IF CLOUD COVER
IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS. DESPITE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE MORNING SHOWERS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE,
CAMS STILL SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PASSING THROUGH. IF THE MORNING SHOWERS DO
MATERIALIZE, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MEAGER AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS IN PLACE, AS WELL AS
A MARGINAL ERO- BOTH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY. IF WE GET THE
INSTABILITY, THEN A MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT
COULD MATERIALIZE, BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
THESE MCS'S TRACKING IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT HAVE BEEN POORLY HANDLED
BY THE GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGHS
PWATS BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING, SO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING (BUT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID SATURDAY,
SEASONABLE SUNDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, THEN HOT AND
HUMID WITH AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND FAIRLY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH MORE
CLOUDS AND AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PIEDMONT AND ACROSS NE NC. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, AND SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN DEPICT
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND
90F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS THE NORMAL
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY LOOKS HOT WITH AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS OF 00Z UNDER THIN CIRRUS WITH A
LIGHT SW WIND INLAND AND NE CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN (20-40% CHC)
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY PROB30 GROUPS IN THE
00Z TAFS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE WIND SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND PRIMARILY SW LESS THAN 10KT FRIDAY
MORNING, BECOMING WNW IN THE AFTN.
NOTE: AN ONGOING COMMUNICATION ISSUE AT THE ORF ASOS HAS NO
EXPECTED TIMEFRAME FOR RESOLUTION, AND AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN
ADDED AGAIN AS OBS WILL NOT LIKELY BE MANUALLY TRANSMITTED
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN ON
SATURDAY, WITH SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (5-10 KT) AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. A WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WATERS FRIDAY, WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LIKELY
VARYING FROM THE E-SE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE E-NE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS FROM THE N SATURDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR A
NORTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT WIND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP TO
20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN AND IN THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD A BIT MORE THAN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ~3 FT. WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN S-SE SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED WINDS, POTENTIALLY NEAR SCA THRESHOLDS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERIOD LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT FLOW
(10 KT OR LESS) IS GENERALLY FAVORED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
CONVECTION COULD BRING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK IS MOSTLY FAVORED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF SEAS
AND NEARSHORE WAVES OVERPERFORM IN NE FLOW. THE NORTHERN BEACHES
COULD ALSO APPROACH "MODERATE" SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
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