445
FXUS61 KAKQ 181925
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
325 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. ADJUSTED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA INTO INTERIOR NE NC TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF FOR
FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON, AND A BIT HUMID ALONG THE COAST.
2) A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTHEAST NC.
3) BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM THIS AFTERNOON, AND A BIT HUMID ALONG
THE COAST.
SW FLOW HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH PEAK WIND
GUSTS AROUND 30MPH. DUE TO CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
EARLIER THIS MORNING, HIGHS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS HAVE ALSO LIMITED MIXING TO A
DEGREE, KEEPING DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, THE HEAT
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST WAS CANCELLED. HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 ARE LIKELY INTO
THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL VA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES
INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA
INTO NORTHEAST NC.
A DECAYING EARLY MORNING MCS THREW THE EXPECTED WEATHER PATTERN
INTO A BIT OF DISARRAY EARLIER TODAY. CAMS RESOLVED THIS SYSTEM
QUITE POORLY, AND THE REMNANT OUTFLOW ALLOWED FOR SOME MID-TO-
LATE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT. IT ALSO LAID DOWN A
PAIR OF WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS,
1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH A
REASONABLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITHIN THE COOL, STABLE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
MORNING'S CONVECTION. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING
BETWEEN 30-40 KT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE US-360 CORRIDOR.
DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN GIVEN A HIGH DCAPE
ENVIRONMENT (800-1200 J/KG, PEAKING JUST SOUTH OF US-360 AS OF
18Z), THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STRONGER, SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP N OF RIC/SBY, WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO
6.5 TO 7 DEG C/KM. SINCE THE NORTHERN CAP WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO ERODE, AND WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE TRIGGER LIKELY TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES TO THE SOUTH, EXPECT
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER TODAY
OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL VA AND NORTHEAST NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL TO RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS EVENING, RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS
THE REGION, AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF TC ARTHUR
PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SE VA. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, THOUGH THE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE FOR HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEFLY
IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES. HAVE INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE FAR SE AND
THERE STILL MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT LOCALLY SEES 1-2" OF
RAINFALL BETWEEN SUNRISE AND MIDDAY FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE. MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH QUICK CLEARING FROM SW TO NE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST OF 18Z/18 TAF PERIOD. SW FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH 15-20 KT WINDS GUSTING TO
~30KT. SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE A SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, TERMINALS LIKELY WILL NOT SEE IMPACTS UNTIL AFTER
00-03Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACT AT RIC/PHF/ORF. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES CIGS START DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER 09Z, WITH IFR/LCL
LIFR BETWEEN 11-15Z, WITH BEST CHANCES AT PHF/ORF/ECG. CIGS
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
PUSHES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRI EVENING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED SW WINDS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE 20-60NM ZONE SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. A FEW GUSTS HAVE APPROACHED 30 KT, MAINLY JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF LAND AREAS WHERE DEEPER MIXING IS PRESENT VS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WAVES ARE 1-3 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4 FT.
SW WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT OUTFLOW AND
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST
LENDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM. THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONE SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SEAS WILL
PEAK THIS EVENING AT 4-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-8 FT IN THE 20-60NM
ZONES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COMING TO END FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AROUND SUNRISE. THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY LINGER IN
MARGINAL SCA TERRITORY THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THROWN A WRENCH INTO THE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM
TS ARTHUR EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH W/SW FLOW
BECOMING N AND NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE FARTHER
NORTH OR STRONGER WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE AGAIN AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ADJACENT
WATERS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED LOW. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING CURRENT
SCA HEADLINES GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT BUT THE AREAS OF
MOST CONCERN FOR BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS ARE THE SOUTHERN BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
WHILE NO RECORD HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED, THEY ARE INCLUDED FOR
REFERENCE.
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 6/18
RECORD
HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 6/18
-------- ----
RICHMOND 100 (1970)
NORFOLK 99 (1944)
SALISBURY 98 (2014)
ELIZ. CITY 100 (2011)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-639-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ688.
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...MAM
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