042
FXUS61 KAKQ 161037
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES. ANOTHER
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM-8 PM
TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY, NC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX EVENT IS
POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT THIS
STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. SOME AREAS
LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10", THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.10"
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...3
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFF THE SE CONUS COAST, AND STRONG UPPER
RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE
RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOCK IN A VERY
WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME TODAY. THIS BERMUDA HIGH SETUP, MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID SUMMER, WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THOUGH WITH A BIT MORE WIND. SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED, WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON THE
EASTERN SHORE (THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM HERE WITH THE STRONGER
SSW WIND). ADDITIONAL RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON RECORDS THROUGH SAT 4/18).
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX
EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO
APPRECIABLE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR EACH DAY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH VA STATE FORESTRY AND NCFS YESTERDAY (WEDNESDAY),
ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM-8
PM FROM THE VA PIEDMONT TO WILLIAMSBURG AND INTERIOR SE VA. TODAY'S
SPS ALSO INCLUDES ALL OF THE PENINSULA AND SUFFOLK GIVEN THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW WIND. THE SPS ALSO INCLUDES NORTHAMPTON COUNTY,
NC. THE IFD STATEMENT ROUGHLY COVERS AREAS WHERE 20-25 MPH GUSTS ARE
CO-LOCATED WITH FORECAST MIN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 30%, ALONG WITH
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90F. THE WIND WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ON FRIDAY WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH VERY LITTLE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30% INLAND
(HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOME ONSHORE IN THE AFTN). WIND
AND RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
SATURDAY WEST OF THE BAY (MIN RH OF 25-30% AND GUSTS TO PERHAPS 15-
20 MPH). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE
NW. EVEN THE NBM, WHICH HAS A HIGH BIAS WITH RESPECT TO DEW PTS,
DEPICTS MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 18-22% ALONG AND W OF I-95 FOR
MONDAY. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MINIMAL SUNDAY, THE COMBINATION OF A
BREEZY NW WIND AND VERY LOW RH AT LEAST GIVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN. SOME AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10", THOUGH PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 0.10" HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S N AND NEAR THE COAST,
TO THE UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS MORE
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BE MEAGER, SO ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE. THE CAMS HAVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE,
THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF) SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS OF ~0.10". NOT REALLY BUYING THIS
SOLUTION GIVEN OUR DROUGHT STATUS AND THE POOR MOISTURE RETURN.
ALSO, THE ECMWF FORECAST DEW PTS ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CONSENSUS
AND IT THEREFORE HAS 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. REGARDLESS, WILL
KEEP LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL THINK MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY. ONE LAST VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY (LOWER
90S INLAND) AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD AGAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUITY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A
STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE BETTER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, IT STILL
DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. POPS HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY (60-70%) FOR MOST OF THE AREA (LOWEST IN
THE SW). SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, WITH A LOW CHC OF
A TSTM. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE DAY, AFTERNOON TEMPS
LIKELY DROP INTO THE 60S (OR EVEN 50S DEPENDING ON IF/WHERE IT
RAINS). THIS COULD EASILY YIELD 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES ON THE
ORDER OF 30 DEGREES F. ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 0.10"+ OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY (60- 80% ACROSS MOST AREAS), AND ARE
HIGHEST NE/LOWEST SW. WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW 0.10-0.20" OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, GEFS/EPS/CMCE PROBS FOR
0.50"+ OF RAINFALL IS STILL 10% OR LOWER FOR THE REGION. MUCH
COOLER WX RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S MONDAY AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO MID
40S FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AM. FROST IS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND NEXT TUE
AM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS REBOUND TO
AROUND NORMAL TUESDAY, AND THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL WED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 12Z/16 TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS
LOWER TO 10-12KFT AGL LATE TONIGHT AT RIC/SBY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
TO ~10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY, MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY, AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MAINLY S-SW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AM.
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD AND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAING LOCKED IN
PLACED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN
STEADY OUT OF THE SW BETWEEN 10 TO 15KT. WAVES ARE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT
ACROSS THE BAY AND 2-3 FT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 4 FT SEAS SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT ON A
STRONGER SW SURGE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AM, WITH WINDS
AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-20 KT OVER THE OCEAN. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD
AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS BUILD TO ~5 FT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS, NO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED DURING THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CONFIDENCE
IN SCA CONDITIONS INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRONGER SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWER/STORMS. THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDS
WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NW. RECENT GUIDANCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DECENT CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34KT GUSTS. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASED
BETWEEN 20-30% OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 34KT GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. IF THESE GUSTS DO OCCUR THEY WILL OCCUR WITH THE
INITIAL SURGE AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE ELEVATED MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY LOWER LATE MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES.
CLIMATE
NEW RECORD HIGHS WERE SET YESTERDAY, 4/15 FOR RICHMOND (93),
NORFOLK (91), AND SALISBURY (89).
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/16 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR
LOCATION 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
NORFOLK 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
SALISBURY 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/16 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR
LOCATION 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ---- ----- ------
RICHMOND 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
NORFOLK 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
SALISBURY 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
ELIZ. CITY 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-
509>525.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/ERI
MARINE...HET
CLIMATE...AJB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page