273  
FXUS61 KAKQ 210628  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
228 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE COAST  
TONIGHT, THEN BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA  
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE  
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 930 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NC COAST THIS  
EVENING. CLEAR AND PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE  
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. REMAINING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, AND A CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  
NOT QUITE AS COOL WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH A FEW  
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
SFC HI PRES MORE OR LESS REMAINS IN PLACE OR SHIFTS JUST  
SLIGHTLY OFF THE NC COAST OF NC ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED MAINLY  
SUNNY/DRY WX FOR SAT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING A FEW MORE  
DEGREES (TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG) WITH HIGHS INTO THE M80S INLAND  
AND U70S/AROUND 80F AT THE COAST. SKC SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING W/  
LOWS IN THE U50S-M60S. TURNING A BIT WARMER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING  
S FLOW...RESULTING IN HIGHS 85-90F INLAND... L-M80S NEAR THE  
COAST.  
 
SFC HI PRES BECOMES ELONGATED ENE-WSW FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC TO  
THE SE CONUS AND RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS OUT BY MON. STILL WARM W/  
SW WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. POPS REMAIN AOB  
10%. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS LATE WHICH MAY  
THROW A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN  
THE DAY (ESP INLAND). HIGHS MON MAINLY 85-90F.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...  
 
OTHER THAN A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLD/SCT SHRAS-TSTMS (ESP N  
AND NE PORTIONS OF THE FA MON NIGHT W/ A (WEAK) COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE (AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BY LATE THU W/ A SECOND (WEAKENING)  
COLD FRONT)...DRY WX AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AOA NORMALS  
WILL PREVAILS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
HIGHS TUE IN THE U70S-L80S...WED MAINLY 80-85F...THU AND FRI IN  
THE M-U80S. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U50S-M60S...M50S-L60S TUE  
NIGHT...L-M60S WED NIGHT AND M-U60S THU NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME PATCHY GROUND  
FOG DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FAR SE VA AND NE NC BUT  
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS. HIGH  
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC AND WILL  
DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN. LIGHT SSW WINDS (LESS THAN 10KT)  
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT BUT STILL ONLY IN  
THE 10-15KT RANGE SUN/MON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  
THAT FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY; SOME  
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY, BUT LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED  
WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO  
THE REGION WITH N TO NE WINDS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ERN  
NC. WINDS HAVE NOW VEERED TO THE SW OVER THE WATERS AND HAVE  
INCREASED TO 10-15 KT (HIGHEST OVER THE ERN CHES BAY). A FEW GUSTS  
TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN NOTED AT ELEVATED SITES ON THE BAY DURING THE  
PAST FEW HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL 5-6 N/7-8 FT S OF THE VA-NC BORDER  
DUE TO SWELL FROM WHAT WAS TC HUMBERTO. WAVES ARE ~2 FT OVER MOST OF  
THE CHES BAY, WITH 3 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE FALLING  
BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTN-EVENING (FROM N TO S). SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT  
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 20Z/4 PM, AND UNTIL  
23Z/7 PM FOR THE SRN COASTAL WATERS. 5 FT SEAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH  
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS S OF THE VA-NC  
BORDER, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR JUST A FEW  
HOURS ATTM.  
 
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SW  
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO ~10 KT BY SUNRISE AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KT  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. WINDS TURN TO THE S AND INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY (WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-15 KT) BY THIS EVENING AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A  
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON THE CHES  
BAY (MAINLY AT ELEVATED SITES) FROM 00-06Z SUN. WINDS TURN TO THE SW  
TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO ~10 KT BY 12Z SUN. WINDS AGAIN INCREASE  
SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY (S-SW 15-17  
KNOTS OVER THE BAY/15-20 KT OVER THE OCEAN...HIGHEST N) BEFORE  
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  
NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR SCAS TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE  
IS A CHC OF SCAS LATE SUN NIGHT-MON...MAINLY OVER THE NRN  
COASTAL WATERS WHERE LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE SHOWING AN 80% CHC OF  
25 KT WIND GUSTS AT BUOY 44009. THERE IS ALSO A DECENT CHC OF  
FREQUENT 20 KT GUSTS OVER THE NRN CHES BAY (FROM 00-12Z MON), SO  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT DURATION SCA THERE AS WELL.  
SUB-SCA ARE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA MON NIGHT-TUE.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 225 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE  
TO INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY AND NEAR SHORE-NORMAL SWELLS. USE  
EXTRA CAUTION IF VISITING THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND AND ALWAYS HEED  
THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-  
652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-  
658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...CMF/LKB  
MARINE...ERI  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ  
 
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