388
FXUS61 KAKQ 240528
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1228 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR COASTAL AREAS AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS, EXCLUDING FAR
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. WINTER STORM ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A DEVASTATING WINTER STORM FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DEVASTATING WINTER STORM FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN EXPECTED.
2) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE WINTER STORM AS
WIND CHILLS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW-END NEGATIVES
BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.
3) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING SATURDAY AM AND PERSISTING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER STORM ARE LIKELY TO LAST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEVASTATING WINTER STORM FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN EXPECTED.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH CAD DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1045+ MB) BUILDS OVER
THE MIDWEST AND MOVES EAST SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG IT IN THE GULF, THEN MOVE TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE AMPLE PACIFIC AND
GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA WITH P-WATS 200-300% ABOVE
NORMAL. FORECAST STORM TOTAL QPF HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT IS STILL BETWEEN 1.25-2.25", WITH THE LOWER
VALUES IN THE SE VA/NE NC AREAS.
12Z MODEL PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH THE TRENDS OF THE WINTER STORM WITH
ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS. A VERY COLD AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ONLY
REACHING IN THE 20S. DURING THE DAY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
NEGATIVES, BUT AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, STARTING AS SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE TRANSITIONING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO A WINTRY MIX,
STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SLEET WILL QUICKLY MIX IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TO NEAR
THE I-64 CORRIDOR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO MIX IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WITH THE
NAM LIFTING THE WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE AREA QUICKER THAN THE
GFS/GEFS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A QUICKER TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX
THAN SNOW. THE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT DECREASE WITH TIME INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MIXED PRECIP
INDICATED ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOW/SLEET TOTALS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SNOW/SLEET TOTALS DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. THE LATEST THERMAL PROFILES SHOW A QUICK SHIFT
TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
LASTING THROUGH AS LATE AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM ICE
TOTALS REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.75" OF ICE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO
RICHMOND METRO AREAS IN ADDITION TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN FAVORING SLEET RATHER THAN FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ICE TOTALS UP TO 0.5" OF ICE
IS EXPECTED, ON TOP OF THE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET. THE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY END AS ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THESE AMOUNTS OF THE COMBINED WINTRY PRECIP WILL LEAD
TO DEVASTATING IMPACTS AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
LEAD TO LONG LAST IMPACTS. IN RESULT, ALL OF THE VA AND MD COUNTIES,
ALONG WITH HERTFORD, NORTHAMPTON, NC, AND GATES COUNTIES, HAVE BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
PICK UP ON MONDAY, CONTINUING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES.
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SPREAD INLAND
FROM THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGHLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA,
SWITCHING PRECIP TO PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
AREA INCLUDES ALL OF NE NC, HAMPTON ROADS AND THE VA/MD EASTERN
SHORE. ALTHOUGH THE CHANGE IN PLAIN RAIN, THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE,
HAMPTON ROADS, AND NE NC EXCLUDING NORTHAMPTON, HERTFORD, AND GATES
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AS A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET AND LIGHT GLAZES OF ICE COULD STILL ALLOW FOR DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
WINTER STORM AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW-
END NEGATIVES BEHIND A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE MAJOR WINTER STORM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT, BRINGING AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AT AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL
ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO AROUND -3 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 10F IN
NE NC. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY AM AND PERSISTING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER STORM ARE LIKELY TO LAST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
BEHIND THE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1030+
MB) FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL SHIFT OVER THE SE CONUS WITH
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
KEEP VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS, ALONG WITH ANY SNOWPACK, WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN
IN SOME TIME, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 0 ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT, TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA, AND
TEENS CLOSER TO THE COAST/SE. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH
A W TO NW BREEZE, WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -10 TO -5
INLAND AND 0 TO 10 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE COAST. EXTREME
COLD HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LONG
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ARCTIC
BLAST BY MIDWEEK, POTENTIALLY SENDING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 20S BY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID TO LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WINTER
STORM COULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR THOSE WITHOUT POWER. IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT ALL TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN EVENT THAT POWER IS UNABLE TO
BE RESTORED IN A TIMELY MANNER.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 8-12KFT
AGL BY 21Z. THE WELL ADVERTISED WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT
RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF BETWEEN 01-04Z, WITH A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX
POSSIBLE AT ECG AT THE ONSET BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY 04-06Z (POSSIBLY BECOMING
MODERATE-HEAVY AT TIMES WITH 1/4-1/2SM VSBY AT RIC/SBY). A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ORF/PHF
BETWEEN 05-08Z SUNDAY AM (AND AT SBY LATER SUNDAY AM). HOWEVER,
IMPACTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AT RIC WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SLEET
(POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES) THEN FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPS LIKELY
DON'T GET ABOVE 32F THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FZRA WILL CONTINUE AT
RIC THROUGH 03-06Z MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. VSBYS OF
1/2-1 1/2SM ARE LIKELY IN SNOW, WITH 1-3SM VSBYS IN SLEET. CIGS
WILL DROP TO IFR OR LIFR LATE TONIGHT WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AND SUN NIGHT. N-NE WINDS OF ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT (HIGHEST AT THE COAST) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING/MIDDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTN.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WED NIGHT-THU AM.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT (AND HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER.
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY (NE TO E) AS DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NE OFFSHORE, SHIFTING TO THE NW
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ON FROM THE SW.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE WATERS
AS OF THIS WRITING. THAT FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE. WINDS QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NNW WINDS, INCREASING
TO 25-30 KT W/ GUSTS TO 35 KT OVER THE BAY, SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND, WITH SCA CONDITIONS FARTHER NE
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER THE RIVERS.
WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE THRESHOLDS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL
REMAIN SOLID SCA, AND GALES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY
SCA FOR A TIME OVER THE GALE WARNING AREA. SCA HEADLINES
THROUGH 4TH PERIOD/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (BUT HAVE THE HEADLINE ENDING IN THE
UPPER RIVERS SAT AFTN GIVEN A 6-12 HR LULL). DID NOT EXTEND
THEM, AS IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. WAVES AND SEAS WILL BUILD ALONG WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS EARLY SATURDAY AND LIKELY PEAK ON SUNDAY IN THE 3-5 FT
AND 6-9 FT RANGES, RESPECTIVELY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ADDED OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MDZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR MDZ022>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ012>014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ015>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-
509>524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ095-097>100-525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-
652-654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...LKB/MAM
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