186
FXUS61 KAKQ 051748
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA COUNTIES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR THE UPPER RIVERS TODAY
AND EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. IN ADDITION, INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS BENEFICIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. IN ADDITION, INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH. THE STRONG SW SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
(COOLER ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE ATLANTIC COAST). THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE AFTERNOON
MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (35-45+ PERCENT CLOSER TO THE COAST). AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES EXPECT FOR THE
CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH AND THE EASTERN SHORE FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM. THE
WARM AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS MILD IN THE LOWER 60S. CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT BRINGS BENEFICIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES ACROSS THE SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF QPF THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ~0.10"
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
~0.50" ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO ~1.00" SOUTH (LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE). THIS RAINFALL FALLS OVER A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME (COMBINED WITH THE DRY SOILS), SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE MORNING FROPA. A
STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY IF THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SLOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING MODELED, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE CAMS/MODELS HAVE THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING (AT THE LATEST). MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY SATURDAY, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY BUT BOTH 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE
LESS ENTHUSED AND HOLD OFF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/05 TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY THIS EVENING, SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AVERAGING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT (POTENTIALLY A FEW HIGHER) THROUGH EARLY EVENING, DROPPING TO
~10-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
ELEVATED AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROB
FOR SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS, AND MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1030 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND.
- GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES LOCAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCAS POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHES BAY,
RIVERS, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER (FARTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED) AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND FROM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE EXPANDED THE SCAS TO
INCLUDED THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS, SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. WILL HAVE TO REASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCAS WED ONCE
THE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE COMES IN. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT
SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH WED FOR THE CHES BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LATEST NBM WAVE HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF SCAS ARE NOT EXTENDED THROUGH WED, A
SECOND ROUND OF SCAS CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED WED AFTERNOON
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES
OVER LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH
IT RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT. WINDS TURN TO THE W IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY THURS, THEN N BY THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE
SOME BRIEFLY ELEVATED WINDS WITH THE NORTHERN WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE LOWER BAY LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO REACH CRITERIA AS OF
NOW WITH 15-20 KT IN THE FORECAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-097-509>525-528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ639-654.
DISCUSSION...AJB/NB
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...AC/RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page