074
FXUS61 KAKQ 071900
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DELMARVA SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNED
FROM NW TO SE, FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MD EASTERN
SHORE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE ZONES. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER WORCESTER CO SO ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS
AFTN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOOD PRODUCTS. THIS AREA IS
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY W/ VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS (TEMPERATURES RISING
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DEW PTS MAINLY FROM 70-75F.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN, MAINLY
TO RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC/LIKELY OVER MD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HRS PER LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH N LATE IN THE DAY SO POPS THERE MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
A BIT AFTER 21Z. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE LESS OF A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION THOUGH THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS AFTER
18-19Z. MODELED ML CAPE VALUES FROM 18-22Z ARE 1500-2000 J/KG
OVER THE INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INTERIOR NE NC, WITH ~1000 J/KG OR LESS NEAR THE COAST. WILL
HAVE POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30-40%) OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
VA/INTERIOR NE NC CLOSEST TO THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS GA/SC. POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND SE VA WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 TO 30%.
SEVERE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT
FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO ~40 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE IF CELL MERGERS/DEEPER CORES
DEVELOP. HIGHS UPR 80S TO LWR 90S, A BIT COOLER AT THE BEACHES.
HI VALUES MID- UPR 90S.
MSTLY CLR/PT CLDY TONIGHT AS ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SW DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS
THIS MOISTURE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE NORTH. MAINLY DRY FROM AFTER
SUNSET THROUGH ~09Z, THEN WILL HAVE LOW CHC POPS MOVING INTO NE
NC. LOWS 70-75F.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRES PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NE ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS LATE WED THRU THURS NITE WITH A SFC TROF DVLPNG ALONG
THE COAST. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION
(PW'S 1.5 - 2 INCHES) WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PCPN
PROGGED TO HUG THE COAST IVOF THE TROF. THUS, POPS INCREASE WED
AFTN AND CONT THRU THURS NITE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SERN
VA/NE NC (LIKELY FOR NOW). WPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLOOKED IN A
MARGINAL DAY 2 ERO RISK WITH A WED NITE TIME FRAME. THE MARGINAL
ERO RISK AREA EXPANDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON THURS
MAINLY FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS WED 85-90. LOWS
70-75. HIGHS THURS IN THE MID 80S. QPF'S HAVE BEEN RAISED TO
BTWN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SERN COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY...
AFTER THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, EXPECT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A RESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LEADING TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UPPER MOISTURE BUT EACH
DAY WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES. ISLTD-SCT
CONVECTION PSBL AFTR 18Z, BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST ATTM. SCT-BKN CU WITH BKN CI TODAY. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH
AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED LATE WED THROUGH
SAT AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ALONG THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. PATCHY MORNING STRATUS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THURS THROUGH SAT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KT
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD
INCREASE A LITTLE MORE LATER THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY) TO AROUND 15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20
KT FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WIND REMAINS SE AROUND 10 KT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY WILL
AVERAGE 2 FT LATE THIS EVENING DECREASING TO 1 FOOT WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL EMERGE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF ARE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
SLOWLY TRACKING THE LOW FROM EASTERN NC TO JUST OFF THE VA
COAST FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NC AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE VA AND NC COAST. E TO ENE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY TO 15-20 KT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. WAVES AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE AREA.
WAVES IN THE BAY (AND LOWER JAMES RIVERS) ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2-3
FT AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4-5 FT.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST AWAY OUR COASTLINE ON FRIDAY, WINDS
WILL TURN NE TO N THEN NW AND DECREASE. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A GENERAL PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...JAO
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