672
FXUS61 KAKQ 090531
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 957 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN
SHORE FOR THE INCREASED RISK OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
- LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS CURRENT CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE WAS DECENT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
EARLIER THIS EVENING, THAT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF AND STORMS HAVE
BECOME MORE PULSE-Y IN NATURE. STORM STRENGTH HAS ALSO LESSENED,
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS IN PLACE DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE
REPORTS FROM VARIOUS COUNTIES, THESE STORMS HAVE USED UP A LOT OF
THE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A PROLIFIC AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS INTACT, WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN FALLING FROM
SUSSEX COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THE MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES. A FEW
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 4" OF RAIN.
OVERNIGHT, STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST
AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. A FEW STRONG STORMS AND
ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH-FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. AS RAINFALL MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT AREA,
BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED PENDING HOW ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S (UPPER
70S IN FAR SE VA AND NE NC) OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT BOTH DAYS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3+" OF RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S BUT GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TUESDAY WE
WILL BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
100 AND 104 WEDNESDAY AND MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
BOTH THESE DAYS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER AIR
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WSW, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH WINDS ~25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 30 TO 35 KT
ACROSS THE NORTH. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS
TUESDAY WITH ML CAPE VALUES ~3000. DCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 750-
1000 J/KG. THEY ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE ~25 KT JUST SUITABLE
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THESE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.
WHILE KEEPING A MARGINAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH AND ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE BIGGEST AND MOST CONCERNING THREAT FOR TOMORROW IS THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
PWS CLIMBING UPWARDS OF 2-2.2". RECENT HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3" ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED
AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE AREAS COULD
SEE HIGH AMOUNTS (4") DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND MORE WIDE SPREAD
CONVECTION. IF THE SAME AREAS THAT SEE HIGH RAIN FALL TOTALS ON
TUESDAY SEE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS, THIS COULD LEAD TO FASTER FLASH
FLOODING. THE RECENT 12Z HREF HAS SHOWN A WIDE SPREAD 10%
PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
WEST. IT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A 30% PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS
ACROSS THE RIC METRO AREA NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD
EASTERN SHORE. WITH ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS, MODEL GUIDANCE, AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR I-95
CORRIDOR AND NORTH. THIS COVERS THE PENINSULAS AND MD EASTERN
SHORE. THE SE HAS BEEN LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,
BUT DEPENDING ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA MAYBE ADDED IN THE
FUTURE. THE RISK FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THURSDAY AS
THE DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN ALREADY SATURATED AND
MOISTURE DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.
THE SEASONABLE YET UNSETTLED JULY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND DECENTLY FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THIS WEEKEND THAN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY. EXACT
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN THE RAIN EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUED WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR RIC, AND WILL IMPACT RIC
(AND PERHAPS PHF) BETWEEN NOW AND 08Z. THE TSTMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 08Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY-MID AFTN. NUMEROUS TSTMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST DURING THE AFTN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE EVENING (GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-04Z). WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC/SBY/PHF...BUT HAVE NOT AT ORF/ECG WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOWER. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS IN +RA AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30+ KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS FROM TONIGHT-FRI
(ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~06Z THU). SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH THU
AND FRI, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND
FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE BAY AND 25 KT OVER THE
OCEAN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE WINDS TONIGHT BUT THE
CONSENSUS IS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE
OCEAN. WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT
THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IMPACT THE WATERS. AGAIN, SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BEYOND TOMORROW, EXPECT
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
SEAS THEN BUILDING AGAIN TO 3 TO LOCALLY 5 FEET BY WED EVENING AS
THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SEAS THEN FALLING TO AROUND 2-3
FEET BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OVER THE BAY 2 TO 3
FEET TONIGHT THEN FALLING TO 1 TO 2 FT WED AM, BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TOMORROW EVENING. WAVES MOSTLY 2 FEET OR LESS THU
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY, WITH LOW
RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED WED AND THU.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ064-075>078-084>086-
517>522.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-509>516-523.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR
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