301  
FXUS61 KAKQ 210001  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
701 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD  
ALSO BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 0-10 DEGREES  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN  
VIRGINIA (INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS) AS WELL AS ALL OF NORTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS VERY  
DRY AIR (SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO DEWPOINTS) CONTINUES TO FILTER  
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL VERY QUICKLY FALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VERY  
COLD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE  
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, TO THE LOW TO MID 10S ELSEWHERE. THE  
COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH A LIGHT BREEZE (HIGHEST CLOSER  
TO THE COAST) WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE 0-10 DEGREE RANGE,  
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES LIKELY OCCURING ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE.  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AND THE  
NORTHERN NECK WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 0-5 DEGREES ARE FORECAST. COLD  
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HAMPTON ROADS AND  
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE WIND CHILLS OF 5-10 DEGREES ARE  
FORECAST (WIND CHILLS OF 10 DEGREES OR LOWER CONSTITUTES AN ADVISORY  
FOR THESE LOCATIONS). FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WHILE NOT UNDER  
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS  
HOVERING IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER 10S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED.  
 
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND  
COUNTIES IN NC, OVER TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.  
 
- VERY COLD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL  
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING NEEDED.  
 
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THERE WAS A SMALL, BUT NOTABLE, SHIFT IN RESPECT TO THE 12Z  
MODEL SUITE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF (AND THUS MORE SNOW) A BIT  
FURTHER TO THE NW. DIVING INTO THE MODEL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THE  
12Z GEFS TRENDED UPWARD FROM OVERNIGHT, NOW SHOWING A STRIPE OF ~30-  
50% CHANCES FOR > 1" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WITH ~10-20% CHANCES FOR >  
3". THE 12Z EPS MADE A BIT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT JUMP, WITH ~50-70+%  
CHANCES FOR > 1" OF SNOW AND ~10-40% FOR > 3" OVER THE SAME AREAS. T  
HE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PAINT A STRIPE OF 3+" ALONG THE  
ALBEMARLE SOUND. IN ADDITION, THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME INTO RANGE  
AND IS PAINTING EVEN HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA AND INTO POTENTIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. KNOWING ALL OF  
THIS, AND ALSO KNOWING THAT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW  
TO (PERHAPS) MID 20S, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE BETTER THAN 10:1  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT, HAVE DECIDED  
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES  
ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, OVER TO THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. THESE  
LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING 3" OR GREATER OF  
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT ADDITIONAL  
COUNTIES/CITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH DEPENDING ON THE  
MODEL TRENDS THIS EVENING, WITH VIRGINIA BEACH AND CHESAPEAKE BEING  
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS IF THE SNOW TRENDS FURTHER NW. LITTLE TO NO SNOW  
IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH  
CAROLINA WHERE VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THERE WILL LIKELY  
BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, LIKELY SETTING UP  
SOMEWHERE OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
OTHERWISE, VERY COLD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF  
THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RANGING TO JUST  
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE WILL ALSO  
BE MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY, ADDING TO THE  
WINTER FEEL. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT TANK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS  
OR TEENS ONCE AGAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BIT MORE WIND COMPARED TO  
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 0-10. COLD  
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH, IF NOT  
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
ANY SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY OR  
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE  
COLDEST DAY OF THE STRETCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR A MAJORITY OF  
THE AREA (LOWER 20S NORTH). THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD  
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA. ONE "POSITIVE" IS THAT THERE WILL BE LESS WIND  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THE WIND CHILL MAY CLOSE TO OR EQUAL TO AIR  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE TO END THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POISED TO DEVELOP ALONG A  
COASTAL TROUGH THURSDAY TO OUR S. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN  
REGARDS TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE GENERALLY  
DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STILL, GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE,  
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ~20-30% CHANCE. THURSDAY'S  
HIGHS REMAIN CHILLY AND IN THE 30S, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD  
REACH THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY. A MORE NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND  
IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER 50S  
BY SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 700 PM EST MONDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES  
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIGHT  
WINDS INLAND TONIGHT W/ 5-10 KT AT THE COAST. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO  
INCREASE AFTER 06Z, BECOMING BROKEN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER TUESDAY MORNING  
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON (BUT REMAINING VFR). MAY SEE SOME LIGHT  
SNOW AT ECG/ORF AT THE END OF THE 00Z PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
OUTLOOK: A CHANCE FOR SNOW, MAINLY AT THE COAST, RETURNING LATE  
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME REMAINS QUITE LOW.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- PERIODS OF FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED  
WINDS.  
 
- LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN IS CENTERED OVER THE  
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE  
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN  
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH ALONG  
THE SE COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20  
KT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  
PAST FEW RUNS OF HRRR/RAP HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER SECONDARY CAA SURGE THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD STILL  
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, AS VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION AND GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT. HAVE ACCORDINGLY HOISTED  
SCA FOR THE BAY THROUGH 1 AM.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,  
AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OFF THE SE COAST.  
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHARPENS FURTHER TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE GULF  
COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS WINDS INCREASING TO ~15-20 KT FOR  
THE CHES BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH 20-25  
KT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. SCA  
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO  
4-6 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT ARE FORECAST TO STAY  
IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS  
OUT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL  
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC  
ZONE OFFSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS  
AND LOCAL IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW.  
 
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR  
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. THE CURRENT  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY. AN EXTENSION OR  
EXPANSION OF THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY WEDNESDAY SEEMS LIKELY AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COLD  
TEMPS LINGER. THEREAFTER, WINDS DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES  
SLOWLY MODERATE SO FURTHER FREEZING SPRAY HEADLINES ARE NOT  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING FOR NCZ015>017-031-032-102.  
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
TUESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-  
523>525.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.  
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-  
634>638-650-652-654-656.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW  
NEAR TERM...AJB  
SHORT TERM...AJB  
LONG TERM...AJB/SW  
AVIATION...AJB/AC  
MARINE...MAM/RHR  
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