137
FXUS61 KAKQ 190817
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
417 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, WILL SLIDE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA DURING SATURDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIGHT OVER THE AREA,
PROVIDING A CLEAR SKY AND COLD TEMPS. TEMPS RANGED FM THE LOWER
30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA,
AND THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE.
AFTER THE COLD START, EXPECT MILDER CONDITIONS THIS AFTN UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE PROVIDING A SSW
WIND OF 5-10 KT. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE WNW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND
MOVES THRU THE REGION DURING SAT. POPS ARE ~60-70% FOR A PERIOD
OF RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING, THEN INTO THE ERN SHORE, SE VA, AND NE NC SAT
MORNING INTO SAT AFTN. POPS THEN TAPER TO 20-40% LATER SAT AFTN
FOR SHOWERS OVER E-CENTRAL VA, THE ERN SHORE, AND NE NC. QPF OF
ARND 0.25" OR LESS IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MILDER
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE
SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT EVENING ONCE PCPN ENDS FM NW TO SE.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
A POTENT NRN STREAM TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SC AND A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE VA NRN NECK/ERN SHORE SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FM THE NW. FORECAST LOWS SAT NIGHT
WILL RANGE FM THE LOWER 40S WNW, TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SE.
COOL, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND A BREEZY NW WIND ON SUN WITH HIGHS
RANGING FM THE MID 50S NW, TO ARND 60 SE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AFTER PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CAA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
~1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, EXPECT
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING A 32F OVER A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS (MOST LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN CWA) EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO THE 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A VERY MODEST WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WARM-UP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS LOW PRESSURE (SFC-ALOFT) PASSES TO OUR
NORTH ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUE- WED. THE LATEST 18/12Z SUITE OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO (STRONGLY) SUGGEST A DRY FROPA. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON MON WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S
NW/AROUND 70 SE ON TUE. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S-
MID 40S ON TUE. BEHIND THE FRONT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST ON WED/THU. THIS
SETUP WILL LIKELY KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FROM MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS ON WED ARE IN THE LOW-
MID 60S, COOLING TO THE MID 50S-LOW 60S ON THU. RAIN CHANCES
POTENTIALLY MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COOL CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WAS PROVIDING A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT/NO WIND AT THE TAF
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTN AND EVENING, WITH
A SSW WIND OF 5-10 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SKC AT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN, WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
FM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WNW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND
MOVES THRU THE REGION DURING SAT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS (MAINLY MVFR). VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT SAT AFTN INTO SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK: BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
IN A NW WIND, AS THE FRONT EXITS AND MORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TWD THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WX AND VFR
CONDITIONS SUN AFTN THRU MON.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FAST MOVING UPR LVL FLOW RESULTS IN QUICK CHANGES TO THE MARINE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY, HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVERHEAD AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. THUS, THE NORTH WINDS BECOME
SSW AOB 15 KT THIS AFTRN. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT.
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS SO HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS ACROSS THE CHES
BAY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING. WAVES INCREASE 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS.
MODELS POINT TO A "LULL" IN THE WINDS LATE SAT BEFORE ANTHER STRONG
CAA SURGE SETS IN SAT NIGHT/SUN. HAVE ELECTED TO END THE SSW SCA
HEADLINE SAT FOR NOW.
LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN WITH THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN THE TEXT BUT NOT HOIST ANY
GALE HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE. PREFER TO TREAT EACH SYNOPTIC
EVENT SEPERATE ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO HOIST GALE HEADLINES IF THE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NOTTOWAY RIVER
AT SEBRELL. SEE FLSAKQ FOR SITE-SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>083-085-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634.
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/MPR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
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