166
FXUS61 KAKQ 150640
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
3) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL LIKE A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAIN. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10".
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STILL WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, AND STRONG UPPER
RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LOCK IN A VERY
WARM, DRY SSW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BERMUDA HIGH SETUP,
MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY TO MID SUMMER, WILL ALLOW FOR RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
FROM SUMMER WILL BE MUCH LOWER DEW PTS WHICH WILL KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, WHICH IS FAR MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER
90S (AND LOCALIZED MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND...ESPECIALLY TODAY) GIVEN
INCREASING 925-850 MB TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DEEP MIXING. HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE EASTERN SHORE. SOME RECORD HIGHS
WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY AND POTENTIALLY THU. THE CURRENT
RECORDS AT OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES ARE NOTED IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONTINUED DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN, AND NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE TO MONITOR FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH VA STATE FORESTRY
YESTERDAY (TUE), WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR PORTIONS OF VA TODAY (WED) WHERE AFTN GUSTS TO AROUND
20 MPH ARE CO-LOCATED WITH MIN RH VALUES AT OR BELOW 30%, ALONG WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO LOCALLY MID 90S. THIS GENERALLY INCLUDES ALL OF
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL VA FROM THE PIEDMONT TO WILLIAMSBURG AND
INTERIOR SE VA. THE SPS ALSO INCLUDES NORTHAMPTON COUNTY, NC AS PER
COLLABORATION WITH NCFS YESTERDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THU
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AVERAGING 25-30% INLAND AND 30-35% CLOSER TO
THE COAST (ALONG WITH ~20 MPH GUSTS). THE WIND WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
ON FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH
VERY LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 25-40%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL LIKE A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. MANY AREAS LIKELY SEE LESS THAN 0.10".
SLIGHTLY COOLER MID 80S TO AROUND 90F ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
BRINGS MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MEAGER, SO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY WITH THAT SHORTWAVE (MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR N). RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST, AND MOST
AREAS WILL STAY DRY. ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 0.01" OF RAIN ON FRIDAY ARE
30% AT MOST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ONE LAST VERY
WARM/HOT AND DRY DAY ON SATURDAY (LOWER 90S INLAND) AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW CONTINUITY AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WHILE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL BE BETTER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, IT
DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, WITH A LOW CHC OF A TSTM. MOST
OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FROPA SUNDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD DROP INTO THE 60S
OR EVEN 50S, WHICH COULD EASILY YIELD 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGES ON THE
ORDER OF 30 DEGREES F. ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 0.10"+ OF RAIN HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY (TO 40-70% ACROSS MOST AREAS), AND ARE HIGHEST
NE/LOWEST SW. COOLER WX RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AM. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT FROST
WELL INLAND NEXT TUE AM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE REGION WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE 06Z/15 TAF PERIOD AND BEYOND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW WINDS
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO ~10 TO 12
KNOTS BY MIDDAY/AFTN WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAINLY S-SW WINDS ALSO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
- NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SIT OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING SW WINDS TO PREVAIL AROUND 10
TO 15KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. WILL NOTE, THERE COULD BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF 20 KT GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO
DAY TIME HEATING. WAVES ARE REMAINING BETWEEN 1-2FT ACROSS THE BAY
AND 3-4FT ACROSS THE OCEANS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN. THIS WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING THE
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KT WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE OCEAN. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO ROUGHLY 4FT AND PERHAPS 5FT AROUND 20NM. A BRIEF SCA
CANNOT RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY, A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS BRINING SCA CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/15 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR HIGH/YR
LOCATION 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ----- ------ ------ ------
RICHMOND 92 (1941) 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
NORFOLK 90 (2024) 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
SALISBURY 87 (1941) 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 91 (1941) 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/15 - 4/18
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR MIN T/YR
LOCATION 4/15 4/16 4/17 4/18
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (2018) 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
NORFOLK 68 (1941) 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
SALISBURY 64 (2002) 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
ELIZ. CITY 68 (1974) 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ012.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-
087>090-092-093-509>522.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/ERI
MARINE...AC/HET
CLIMATE...MAM
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