255
FXUS61 KAKQ 130445
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1145 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE MODERATING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
2.) LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE
MODERATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY STRETCHING UP
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS VA AND MD.
WHILE ACROSS NC SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S ACROSS THE NORTH.
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN BELOW OR NEAR AVERAGE, THOUGH NOT NEAR
AS COLD AS THE PERIOD FROM LATE JANUARY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 20S WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. WHILE FRIDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF I-64 AND UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S NORTH. BY SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OFFSHORE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING AT LEAST THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60F INLAND W AND SW OF THE
CHES. BAY, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. IN
ADDITION, THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
RH VALUES BETWEEN 25-35% INLAND AND 35-45% ALONG THE COAST. LESS
WIND AND SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT SNOW MELT WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH NEEDED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
PROGGED WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THE RECENT
ENSEMBLE 12Z/12 ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND QPF. THE RECENT GEFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF
QPF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY DUE WHERE THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP RATES AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOR ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS. WHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH PROBS ARE BETWEEN 30 TO
50% FOR RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN AN INCH. REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE ON
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS HIGH, ESPECIALLY AS FIRE
SEASON COMMENCES ON FEBRUARY 15TH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK,
WITH 50S CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE LOW TRACK, WHICH IS GENERALLY
S OF THE VA/NC BORDER BASED ON THE 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. BY THE TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO MODERATE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAFS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE
SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR UP FOR MOST TERMINALS BY LATER THIS MORNING. NNW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 7-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ORF AND SBY SEEING SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE.
MARINE
AS OF 309 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER
PUSH OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT. THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION HAS STARTED TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES ARE STILL MEASURING 3-5 FT SEAS, SO SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS, BUT ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE TIME BEING. CURRENT WIND OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE AREA RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IN
THE BAY, AND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE TO REACH SCA
CONDITIONS AS EVEN DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER SCA JUST FOR THE
BAY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO CAPTURE THIS OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE, THOUGH IT
WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS COMES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT SCA CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW, BUT THE FORECAST COULD GO UP OR DOWN PENDING THE TRACK OF
THE LOW, THOUGH THE LOW DOES LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS IT
TRAVERSES THROUGH THE REGION.
SEAS WILL TREND DOWN TONIGHT, THOUGH WAVES IN THE BAY WILL LIKELY
BUILD BACK TO 2-3 FT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON'S LULL. THEREAFTER, WAVES
AND SEAS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH 1 FT WAVES
EXPECTED IN THE BAY AND ~2 FT SEAS FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, SEAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BUILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/HET
AVIATION...KMC/SW
MARINE...KMC/NB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page