982
FXUS61 KAKQ 092315
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
715 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GOOD SHOT FOR RAIN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GOOD SHOT FOR
RAIN AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE SKIRTED ALONG
THE COAST OF VA AND MD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY
BE DRY BUT A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
ABOUT 7-8 PM OR SO. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINS VERY LOW.
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH TODAY PIVOTS WELL NE OF THE REGION. RESULTANT HEIGHT RISES
AND INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EVEN ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. THE DAY STARTS OUT SUNNY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH
SETS UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA, RESPECTIVELY. THESE FEATURES
COULD SPARK A FEW LATE-DAY SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR FAR NW PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. HOWEVER, NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT
TENDENCIES AND A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION SUGGEST LOW COVERAGE
AND MOST CAMS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR N.
SHOWER/RAIN POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PROBABILITIES FROM THE
VARIOUS MODELING SUITES FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
HAVE REMAINED QUITE STEADY IN THE 60-90% RANGE, BUT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR >0.5". THE STORM POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ALSO
CONTINUES TO APPEAR MUTED DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE MORNING TIMING OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER, SOME INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING (JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT) IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA, MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND POINTS S. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
THUS, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOWN IN THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE, POTENTIALLY NEAR OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPS MAY ATTEMPT TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES LATE IN THE
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NC BEFORE THE ANAFRONTAL RAIN SHIELD
MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THEN RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEPER TROUGH IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT,
OVERSPREADING SOME STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING, WHICH WOULD BE UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS. THE
12Z ECMWF ALSO CONFIRMS THIS IDEA BY SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT. SO, WHILE
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO,
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GREATER SEVERE WX
THREAT AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, HOWEVER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY E OF I-95, AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS NEARBY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR AS OF 00Z WITH FEW-SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SW WIND OF
5-10KT. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 10/00Z TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ECG HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHALLOW
GROUND FOG. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY WITH A SW WIND OF
5-10KT, WHICH WILL LIKELY SWITCH TO ENE AT ORF DURING THE AFTN,
AND SSE AT ECG DURING THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 325 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASING N WINDS, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
AFTERNOON WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR S WINDS OF 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS ARE 3-4 FT (LOCALLY A BIT HIGHER IN NE NC),
WITH ~2 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY, ALLOWING FOR AN AFTN SEA/BAY BREEZE WITH WINDS
BECOMING E-SE AT ~10 KT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE N-NE AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING EAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING AND THE EXACT POSITION OF THE SFC FEATURES AND THE
12Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT WEAKER WITH WINDS THAN LAST NIGHT'S 00Z SUITE.
REGARDLESS, SCAS APPEAR VERY LIKELY FOR THE BAY, NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WILL
NOTE THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN WINDS MONDAY EVENING WELL
AFTER THE INITIAL FROPA...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MON NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY CAA SURGE ARRIVES. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE BAY ARE ~50% SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT AND PROBS FOR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN HAVE DECREASED TO 20-40%. REGARDLESS, SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO THE N-NE FLOW EVEN IF FREQUENT
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN DON'T QUITE MEET SCA CRITERIA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI
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