225
FXUS61 KAKQ 182316
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...
QUIET WX AND CHILLY TONIGHT AS SFC HI PRES ARRIVES OVER THE LOCAL
THIS EVENING...THEN SLIDES VERY SLOWLY TO THE COAST (WELL) AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NNW WINDS BECOME LIGHT-VRB BY MID-LATE THIS EVENING.
MAINLY SKC W/ LOW FROM THE M-U20S INLAND TO U20S-AROUND 30F SE
VA-NE NC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE WED W/ DRY/SEASONABLE WX TO CONTINUE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT S. HIGHS MAINLY 50-55F. SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT. HIGH PRES
DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WHILE STRONG
AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO
START...TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO DROP OFF QUICKLY WED EVENING
INTO THE M-U30S TO L40S...THEN BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AND THICKEN/LOWER.
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS STAGE FOR
THU/THU NIGHT SYSTEM. STILL APPEARS MAINLY DRY UNTIL DAYBREAK
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THU...THOUGH DID MAINTAIN INCREASE TO
CHC POP OVER THE SE INTO THU MORNING. DEEP-LAYERED SSW FLOW AND
INCREASE FORCING WILL RESULT IN POPS RAMPING UP QUICKLY S-N THU
(TO 60-90% BY AFTERNOON). WIDESPREAD RA...POSSIBLY MDT/HVY...
IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGHEST QPF WILL ONCE
AGAIN NEAR THE COAST (ESP SE VA-NE NC) W/ LOWER AMOUNTS INLAND
(LIKE THE MOST RECENT EVENT THIS PAST WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW...GOING
W/ STORM TOTAL THU-THU NIGHT 1-2". TOO EARLY FOR ANY FLOOD
WATCHES...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN HWO (FOR
LATE THU-THU NIGHT). HIGHS THU IN THE 40S NW TO THE L60S SE.
TEMPERATURES LARGELY STEADY OR RISING (ESP S AND E) THU NIGHT.
MAIN AREA OF RA LIFTS QUICKLY NNE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI...WHILE
SHARP TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TO AL-GA. EXPECTING
VRB CLOUDS-PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRI AND WARMER W/ SCT SHRAS. HIGHS
IN THE L60S NW TO THE U60S-AROUND 70F SE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SCT PCPN. DRYING OUT AND COOL FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE LO PRES DEPARTS INTO THE FAR NRN ATLANTIC. 12Z/18
GFS/ECMWF BOTH HAVE ANOTHER AREA OF LO PRES TRACKING BY N OF THE
REGION MON...PUSHING A MOISTURE STARVED (AT THIS POINT) COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FA. OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRY/SEASONABLE WX
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE L-M40S. HIGHS HIGHS SAT 50-55F. LOWS SAT
NIGHT IN THE L-M30S W TO THE U30S-AROUND 40F AT THE COAST. HIGHS
SUN IN THE U40S-AROUND 50F N TO THE M50S FAR S. LOWS SUN NIGHT
AGAIN FROM THE L-M30S INLAND TO THE U30S-AROUND 40F AT THE
COAST. HIGHS MON AND TUE IN THE U40S N TO THE L50S S.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 615 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 19.18Z WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
THEREAFTER.
SFC LO PRES APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE WED-THU AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERED CEILINGS AND EVENTUALLY SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS (CIGS AND VSBY) IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING THU AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
QUICKLY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...
SEAS STILL 4-5 FT ACROSS THE NRN CSTL WTRS AND 5-6 FT ACROSS
THE SOUTH SO EXTENDED THE SCA FOR A FEW MORE HRS FOR SEAS. OTW,
NO HEADLINES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
THEN OFF THE COAST WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THU.
S-SE WIND BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP INTO SCA LEVELS AHEAD OF AN APPRCHG
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH THURS NITE. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA'S ARE
POSSIBLE AS A SERIES OF LOWS TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FRI AND
FRI NIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SAT.
SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL (7-10 FT), THEN BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG TO DEVELOP THURS
NIGHT AND FRI AS RAIN AND HIGHER DEW POINTS OVERSPREAD THE COOLER
WATER TEMPS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 210 PM EST TUESDAY...
FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHMOND-WESTHAM WILL BE COMING DOWN SHORTLY
AS THE LEVEL CONTINUES TO FALL (BELOW FLOOD STAGE). WILL BE
MONITORING THE APPOMATTOX RIVER AT MATTOAX FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNING AS THE LEVEL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ALB/RHR
MARINE...MPR
HYDROLOGY...
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