941
FXUS61 KAKQ 202337
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
LESS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS OF
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2) A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS ARE LIMITED THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER MON AND TUES WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS OF
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST
OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE
IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SE AND GULF COAT. WHILE TO THE NORTH A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MICHIGAN WITH ITS COLD
FRONT FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE. OTHERWISE, DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES AS OF 2PM ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL TODAY AS SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED
FROM THE RAIN FALL EARLY THIS WEEK.
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS OF SATURDAY THE WEAK
LOW TO THE NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z
CAMS HAVE SHOWN 2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL
RAIN FALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLACES RECEIVING LESS THAN .1" INCH
OF RAIN. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY AS SOME PLACES RECEIVE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE THE BETTER VORTICITY RESIDES.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS CAM'S HINT ON
AROUND 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
BY SATURDAY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND THE WEEKEND WEATHER
CONDITIONS LOOK OPTIMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES HANG AROUND SINCE
THERE IS NO REAL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S DOWN SOUTH. SUNDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AS SW
WINDS PREVAIL HELPING TO GET TEMPERATURES INTI THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS VA AND NC AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. IF SHOWERS ARE LIMITED THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER MON AND TUES WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BY THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES VICINITY INTO THE NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT COMING OUT OF THE NORTH. AS OF THIS
FORECAST UPDATE THE FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO SHOWN A MUCH DRIER FRONT WITH VERY MINIMAL RAIN FALL EXPECTED.
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM
INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL RUSH ACROSS THE AREA HELPING TO TANK DEW POINTS AND RH AND
INCREASING THE WINDS. WITH MIN RH VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 30-40%
AND WINDS BEING BETWEEN 10-15MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH IT
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TRENDS IN THE DATA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE DAY APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE, COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TUES AS THE COOLER
AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THEN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK A WEAK
RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/21 TAF PERIOD. INCREASING
AND LOWERING CIGS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT REMAINING VFR. IN ADDITION, LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE BEFORE COMING TO
AN END ~09Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. WIND SHEAR PICKS UP TONIGHT AS A LLJ INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. MAINLY SKC SKIES AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BRING A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 259 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA-LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OVER
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH BUILDING SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.
- THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SOLID SCAS IS EARLY MONDAY-TUESDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL 35 KT GUSTS DURING THIS TIME (MAINLY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT).
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE JUST SE OF THE
CAROLINA COAST. S-SSW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KT (HIGHEST
N/LOWEST S) ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF FREQUENT
25 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE VA/MD COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
20-25 KT GUSTS ON THE BAY (BEST CHANCES NORTH). SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE BAY AND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS N OF THE VA-NC BORDER. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF NNE WINDS ON SATURDAY
ON THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT AND
VEER TO THE E-SE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME SSW ON SUNDAY AND
INCREASE TO ~15 KT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MORE PROLONGED ROUND OF SCAS IS
LIKELY FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT. STILL ANTICIPATING STRONG SCA-LEVEL
WINDS, WHICH WILL PEAK MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. THERE
REMAINS A LOW-END CHANCE (10-20%) FOR OCCASIONAL 35 KT GUSTS ACROSS
THE BAY AND OCEAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CAA SURGE
IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH NNW FLOW WEAKENING QUICKLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS VEER BACK TO THE SSW TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT (POSSIBLY 8 FT SOUTH) MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY, BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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