764
FXUS61 KPBZ 060008
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGE #1
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS; FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM FOR OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
2) ENSEMBLES TRENDING TOWARD A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEK FEATURING
LIMITED "DRY" PERIODS BUT WITH LOW HAZARD PROBABILITIES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION,
MAINLY IN WESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SLOW MOVING TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS THAT GOT
AGGRESSIVELY HIT BY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. IF STORMS DO TRAIN, EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
DECREASES. FOGGY CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY:
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE THE AERIAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY. WE WILL WAIT AND
SEE WHO GETS HIT TODAY THEN GO FROM THERE.
POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIATING FACTORS...POTENTIAL FOR EXTRA CLOUD
COVER TO LIMIT HEATING AND REDUCING BUOYANCY DEVELOPMENT
(MAINTAIN THE FLOOD THREAT BUT FURTHER ERODING WIND/HAIL
THREATS)...AND/OR SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WORKING AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT OFFERS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO DISPLACE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH/EAST. LIKE TODAY, HI-RES
MODELING FAVORS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MAXIMIZE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS TO REACH THOSE SEVERE/FLOOD RISKS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SAGGING TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, ACTING TO LIMIT AIRMASS CHANGES TO
ESCAPE THE DAILY POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
FAVORED AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED BY THE SUBTLE AREAS
OF JET-INDUCED LIFT/SINK AROUND THE TROUGH AS WELL AS RESIDUAL
STORM OUTFLOWS BECAUSE SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS AND WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY NON- EXISTENT. THERE IS VARIANCE IN
HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES POSITIONED TO THE EAST,
MEANING VARIANCE ON WHEN THE "LULL" PERIOD MAY OCCUR. QUICKER
SOLUTIONS OFFER LOWER POPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURE CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL; SLOWER
SOLUTIONS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF "CHANCE" OR SO POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURE SITS NEAR AVERAGE.
OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS
FAVORED TO CROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THE BROKEN
RECORD OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR STORMS WITH
BETWEEN 5 TO 15 %. CIPS ANALOG IS A TOUCH HIGHER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM (MCS)
VENTURES INTO CENTRAL PA AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOLLOW. THERE
COULD BE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN ZZV THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z.
FOR TONIGHT, DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SITE COULD
POTENTIAL DROP TO IFR/LIFR FOR VIS; ESPECIALLY HLG/ZZV.
LOW-LVL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSOLVE BETWEEN 13-15Z MONDAY
MORNING.
BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND ADVANCE IN THE VICINITY OF A NUMBER OF TAF SITES;
PROB30 FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN ADDED.
OUTLOOK...
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTIONS GIVING WAY TO MVFR/VFR CU
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIVING THE WEATHER SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/SHALLENBERGER
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