065
FXUS61 KPBZ 301055
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASE TO WEEKEND DEW POINTS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
REINFORCED BY DIURNAL MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY WEEK'S END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
A MID-LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN LOWER DEW POINTS REINFORCED BY DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LOCAL PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AMID THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS
BRINGS HIGH PROBABILITY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN 70S, LOWS IN UPPER 40S/LOW 50S) THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE GONE DOWN EVEN MORE IN THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES AROUND THE TROUGH DISPLACED EAST IN
MORE RECENT GUIDANCE, AND SCARCE COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
(FORECAST PWATS NEAR THE DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM).
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID-WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES INDECISIVE
OF RIDGING OR THE STAGNATION OF A CLOSED LOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REMAINING SEASONABLE
(TROUGHING SOLUTION) OR TEMPERATURES TRENDING ~10F ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (RIDGING SOLUTION), BUT MOST LIKELY DRY IN ANY
SCENARIO.
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN RIDGING WINNING
OUT, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES AFFILIATED WITH A
DIGGING SURFACE FRONT LATE-WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO RETURN THE NEXT
SIZABLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. CIPS ALSO ALLUDES THIS AS THE NEXT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH BREEZY DAYTIME NORTHEAST WINDS THAT OCCASIONALLY GUST
TO 15-20KTS EXPECTED TODAY. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
SAVE FOR A PERIODS OF CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS (FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN) AND ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS WITH COOL ADVECTION
AROUND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB/MILCAREK
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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