513
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1139 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80).
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE BY 10 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND
ABOVE FREEZING SOIL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOW ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, GIVEN TEMPERATURE
PROFILES, HAVE INCLUDED A CHC/SCHC MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MERCER, VENANGO, FOREST, CLARION, AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
FLAKES TO MIX IN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES, THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS
THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
WARMER... THOUGH STILL BELOW-NORMAL... TEMPERATURES RETURN
FRIDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PERSISTENT REX BLOCK IN THE
WRN CONUS SUPPORTS COLD AIR DIVING INTO THE ERN CONUS AND AN
EVENTUAL BROAD TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OFFERS YET ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY OF CLOUDS AND COLD RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY, BUT LAKE-DRIVEN STRATOCU WILL
PERSIST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST PORTS WILL SEE HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS TODAY. EARLY IN THE FORECAST, FKL AND DUJ WILL SEE LOWER
CLOUD MOVING OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT, HOWEVER A
TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 MPH POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS WITH A WED COLD FRONT. MORE
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A FRI NIGHT/SAT COLD
FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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