514
FXUS61 KPBZ 141118
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE NBM HAS BEEN COMING IN WITH DEW POINTS A BIT TOO HIGH AND
HAD TO LOWER THEM A COUPLE DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURE PEAKING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD POSE HEAT
RISKS, ESPECIALLY TO SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
2) PENDING FINER DETAILS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
TODAY WITH THE AXIS ARRIVING DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER THE EAST.
THE PRESENCE WILL FOR THE MOST PART, SHUT OFF THE MOISTURE FLUX
INTO THE REGION. AS SUCH, HAVE LOWERED THE DEW POINTS AS THE
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS WILL SHUT OFF
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS CEASE TO EVEN PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF A
POP UP SHOWER. THAT SAID, THE PROBS OF REACHING 100 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR THE DAY TODAY HAS DROPPED TO NEAR 0% BUT
REMAINS AROUND 60% FOR THE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I-80. WEDNESDAY
WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAY THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT BACK TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE TIMING AND
INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT AS THE 15% PROB FOR
SEVERE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WAS DROPPED, THERE IS STILL
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND USUALLY A PATTERN CHANGE RESULTS IN
UNSETTLED WEATHER. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE A VFR
FORECAST IS EXPECTED, IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS, THE
RESIDENCE TIME FOR FOG WILL BE SHORT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/LUPO
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