026
FXUS61 KPBZ 021601
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1101 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOW FOR THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA
TUESDAY
- WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY ON FRIDAY
- COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TUESDAY
2) SNOW IMPACTS LIKELY FRIDAY
3) COLD WEATHER HEADLINES LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SNOW IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
DUE TO A LOW- PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND VENTURING INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG I-68,
WITH SNOWFALL RATES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES
PER HOUR. CURRENT TOTALS ALONG WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES ARE
FORECAST AT 2-3 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
FOR TUCKER COUNTY IN THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS NEW HIGH-
RESOLUTION DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FORECAST STRONGLY INDICATES THAT EXTENDED COLD WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO A
PERSISTENT, STRONG HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST
CAUSING A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST
COAST. CONSEQUENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS DEVELOPING ON
FRIDAY IS INCREASING, DRIVEN BY A PASSING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE NBM SHOWS A HIGH
PROBABILITY (70-95%) FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR THREE INCHES OR MORE RANGES
BETWEEN 30-75%, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED MID-WEEK. THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE RIDGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING (+6") IS ELEVATED IN THE RIDGES OF OF
TUCKER COUNTY. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3....
CONDITIONS WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 925MB
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM -4 TO -20 CELSIUS. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING NEAR ZERO AND WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30MPH, WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO HIT -10 TO -15 FOR A LARGE PORTION
OF THE REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES IS LIKELY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
2) MVFR/IFR CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
INITIAL CIGS AROUND 8-10 KFT EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR...
GUIDANCE IS NOT BULLISH ON SNOW, BUT GIVEN THE REGIME OF
EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IN THE PAST AND ASCENT IN THE LOW-
LEVELS THROUGH A SATURATED LAYER INTO MIXED- PHASE CLOUDS, IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAN MODELS MIGHT ALLUDE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
60-90% CHANCE OF MVFR SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST REACHING ZZV
AROUND 20Z, PIT AROUND 22Z, AND LBE AFTER 00Z. ROUGHLY A 40% TO
70% CHANCE OF IFR VIS AND CIG FILLS IN SHORTLY AFTER WITH
HIGHER CHANCES OF SNOW. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE
HIGHEST CIG FALLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PIT, DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS TO THE EAST, WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL VIS FROM 1/4SM TO 6SM; OPTED TO TAKE VIS FALLS TO 2SM
FOR NOW, CLOSER TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE.
SOME LIFTING IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL
INTENSITY, BY DAYBREAK, BUT STILL AT LEAST A 75% OF AT LEAST
MVFR PREVAILING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION COULD ALSO SPREAD SOME SNOW ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT. VFR SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB/MILCAREK/88
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