501
FXUS61 KPBZ 261739
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1239 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SUNSET TODAY WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
2) EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -25F MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING COLD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DUSK. POCKETS OF
SHALLOW INSTABILITY (20-40J/KG) MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
SNOW BANDS THAT COULD CREATE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL RANGE FORM A LIGHT DUSTING UP TO 1 INCH. UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW, GRADUAL UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
THROUGHOUT MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING, COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20 CELSIUS,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -15F TO -25F. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES FROM 7PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 11AM TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY FEBRUARY, AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A CORRESPONDING TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST, ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO BE DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO UPPER-TEENS. WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD,
FROZEN PIPES WILL POSE THE PRIMARY INFRASTRUCTURE CONCERN
ACROSS THE REGION. RIVER ICE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FORMING AREA-
WIDE, WITH INCREASING THICKNESS OVER THE COMING WEEKS AND LIKELY
IMPACT RIVER GAUGE READINGS.
MULTIPLE MODELS SUGGEST A NOR'EASTER MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND, WARRANTING CLOSE MONITORING
FOR POTENTIAL SNOW IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING
2) BRIEF RETURN TO VFR LATE TONIGHT
3) MORE RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
A CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
COULD BRIEFLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH MVFR SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN, COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING, WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY W WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT CROSSES. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL LIKELY RETURN
RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WITH ANOTHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN:
DUBOIS, PA (1/27 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2003)
PITTSBURGH, PA (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -4F (2019)
DUBOIS, PA (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, OH (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2019)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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