955
FXUS61 KPBZ 191703
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ISSUES LINGER TODAY DUE TO FINE PARTICULATES FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
THREATS RETURN TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERTS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN PA
AND NORTHERN WV TODAY DUE TO LINGERING CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
2) ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY; SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE THE RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS A
RESULT, AIR QUALITY LEVELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN YELLOW
AND ORANGE, SPURRING THE ISSUANCE OF AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. BY TUESDAY, A
COMBINATION OF HIGH ENERGY (1500J/KG TO 2500J/KG) AND STRONG
WIND SHEAR (EFFECTIVE SHEAR 35KT-45KTS) IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION,
LEADING THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP. A SEVERE T-STORM OR TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED DURING SOME PERIOD OF TIME ON TUESDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PWATS REACHING THE 80TH
TO 90TH PERCENTILE RAISE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY
EVENING. TRAINING STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE LOCALIZED
SWATHS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
LOCATIONS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND INCREASED RUNOFF.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
PENDING FURTHER CLARITY FROM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA OVER
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND SCATTERED YIELDING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FOG IMPACTS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MOST FAVORED AREAS
WOULD BE OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTS, WHERE THE MOST RAIN WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. A LOWER END VFR SCT TO FEW STRATOCU DECK PREVAILS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE ERODING NEAR SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS RETURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ007-013-
014-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...AK
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