622
FXUS61 KPBZ 122354
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
754 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
- RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
---------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION CONTINUING CALM,
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY CU
NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 BUT A VERY DRY COLUMN FURTHER SOUTH LIKELY
HURTS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT CHANCES.
THE BEGINNING OF A SMALL LATE SUMMER SURGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LOFTING
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AGAIN POINT TOWARDS THE LIKELY
DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET, DRY AND WARM WEATHER
--------------------------------------------------------------
SATURDAY LIKELY BEGINS CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH FOG SET
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF HEATING.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
- MODERATE HEAT RISK IN EASTERN OHIO ON MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------------
THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND EARLY MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE ODDS OF SQUEEZING RAIN OUT OF THIS TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED
FURTHER AND NOW EVEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SEEMS A LONG SHOT.
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PRECEDING AND DESCENDING DRY AIR CHASING
THE TROUGH IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FIZZLE AS
THE WAVE CROSSES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS DIPPED BELOW 10%.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
AFTER LITTLE MORE THAN A CLOUDY SPEED BUMP THE REGION RETURNS
TO LARGELY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRY, QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS SET
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SEEMING A DISTANT HOPE, HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEST OF PITTSBURGH CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
MODERATE HEAT RISK NOSES ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH OHIO, TOWARDS
THE TRI-STATE AREA MONDAY- WEDNESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REST
IN THE MID 80S, 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
LATER NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONVOLUTED AS
ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH IMPACT THE NEXT
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA HAS ON THE OHIO VALLEY
RIDGE. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT DRY, QUIET AND
WARM CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DISRUPTION OF THIS PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME INCREASED WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK.
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL INCREASE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN SAVE
FOR AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE.
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR THUS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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