638
FXUS61 KPBZ 292351
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
751 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
2) SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OVER
THE NEXT 48HRS, RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST, USHERING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE
REGION. THE PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S
AND LOW-90S IS ELEVATED, EXCEEDING 70% EARLY THIS WEEK, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED HEAT RISK. SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES
MAY TIE, COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF, OR BREAK RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LONG-RANGE MODELS INDICATED THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF
HOT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN (MENTIONED IN
KEY MESSAGE 1), THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA OF GREATEST INTEREST CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH A PASSING TROUGH OVER CANADA. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASING
WARM, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AT THIS TIME, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED A
15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. SHOULD THE RIDGE AXIS SAG FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS I-80, THE RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EXPAND TO
INCLUDE A LARGER PORTION OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING
MORE DENSE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS CLOUD BASES LOWER TO THE 7-10KFT RANGE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT
AREA TERMINALS SINCE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE GIVEN A DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN NY AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTHWEST PA ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT SETS UP
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS. THE BULK OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS TO
FKL/DUJ THROUGH THAT TIME. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, VFR
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAIL UNDER STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THAT LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS) BACK TO THE LOCAL AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK
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