511
FXUS61 KPBZ 152149 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
549 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2019
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
EVENING DISCUSSION:
AN INCREASE TO THE POPS HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STAY FOCUSED IN EASTERN OHIO/NORTHERN WV,
WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
LIKELY WARM-RAIN PROCESSES, HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD REMAIN AROUND ZANESVILLE
OVERNIGHT,WHERE A SFC TROUGH/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL BE FOUND,
BUT OTHERWISE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL
LOCATIONS. WHILE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WON'T CHANGE MUCH BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW, MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TOWARD CLEVELAND AND INTO
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD SHOULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH
ACROSS GARRETT COUNTY TO AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. UNLESS TRAINING
OCCURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS, THE SEVERAL-DAY DRY STRETCH SHOULD
PREVENT THESE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE WILL BE BROUGHT BACK DOWN TOWARD AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, BUT WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO BROAD HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WORST DAY WITH RESPECT TO HEAT INDICES,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE HWO.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL NOT BE AS TORRID, AS 500 MB HEIGHTS START TO
DROP OFF, BUT STILL WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DESPITE POOR DEPICTION OF CONVECTION IN HI-RES MODELS, THE FORECAST
FEATURES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION. CURRENT
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY NEAR A ZZV-MGW LINE.
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP NWD DESPITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING
GENERATED BY THE ONGOING STORMS OWING TO LIMITED CAPE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AHEAD OF BARRY'S
REMNANTS, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE FROM ZZV-MGW FROM 15/2100-16/0000UTC. COVERAGE SHOULD SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.
INCLUDED FOG FOR TUESDAY MORNING AT KHLG AND KMGW AS INCREASING
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH FORECASTED LIGHT WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS FROM BARRY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN PRE-DAWN VISIBILITY, WHICH CERTAINLY COULD BE
LOWER THAN FORECAST AT WHEELING BETWEEN 09Z-13Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND ADVANCING
SLOWLY SEWD SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ARRIVE, SO CONVECTION WAS NOT
INCLUDED AT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WIND PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ON THE WRN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK
BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
UPDATE...12/KRAMAR
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