221
FXUS61 KPBZ 030042
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES IN LOW PROBABILITY FREEZING
RAIN IMPACT FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING PITTSBURGH METRO THAT WILL
REQUIRE OBSERVATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM, MOIST AIR OVERRIDING A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF REGION WILL SEE RAIN, BUT LOCATIONS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, AS WELL AS THE RIDGES, WILL SEE FREEZING
RAIN DEVELOP WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
FREEZING AT ONSET. WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THOSE AREAS TODAY,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THERE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING WHILE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION PROVIDES A PROFILE
SUITABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN. THERE LIES SOME MORE UNCERTAINTY
FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING PITTSBURGH METRO WITH TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT AT PRECIPITATION ONSET OVERNIGHT. NBM SUGGESTS LOW
PROBABILITY IMPACTS THERE, BUT IT IS RUNNING WARM AND MOIST
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LENDS HIGHER CONCERN ABOUT A FARTHER
SOUTH FOOTPRINT OF FREEZING RAIN. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE MOST ALWAYS RESULTS IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAN
MOST MODELS SUGGEST, SO THE T/TD SPREAD MAY BE LARGE ENOUGH THAT
WITH WET-BULBING, AIR TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY COME DOWN TO OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE MODELED TO BE RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING, SO ANY IMPACTS MAY ONLY BE CONFINED TO BRIDGES,
OVERPASSES, AND ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR THAT OUTCOME TO COME TO
FRUITION, WE'D NEED DEW POINTS TO TREND ALONG WITH HREF 25TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN THIS AFTERNOON, SO
OBSERVATIONS WILL NEED MONITORED CLOSELY THIS EVENING FOR
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF HEADLINES.
ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE. TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES MAY
HANG ON SLIGHTLY LONGER, UNTIL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDED COUNTIES
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR LESS OF
ICE ACCUMULATION NORTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND ALONG THE RIDGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION, AND A PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS.
THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RAIN WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS WITH A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT ONSET, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
MID/LATE MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FREEZING
RAIN AT ONSET FOR PIT/AGC/BVI/HLG, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AT THESE
TERMINALS BEFORE CONDITIONS WARM. CONTINUED TO CARRY A PROB30
FOR THIS THREAT.
CIGS WILL LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH EVENTUAL
MVFR/IFR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME BRIEF LIFTING SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH
OF PIT NEAR SUNRISE BEFORE IFR RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY EVENING.
RAIN MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AFTER SUNRISE, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BY 18Z. IT SHOULD THEN TAPER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON.
OUTLOOK...
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...MLB/SHALLENBERGER/88
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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