341
FXUS61 KPBZ 151156
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY;
MONITORING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET AND COOLER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TODAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST MAY BRING A WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE-SCALE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
CONCERNS REMAIN FOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING DAMAGE WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT CENTER OF THE LOW AND THE WARM
FRONT. IF THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH, THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BECOME FOCUSED FROM MICHIGAN INTO NEW YORK RATHER
THAN ACROSS OUR REGION.
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WIND SHEAR APPEARS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE, WITH 40-50KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. DESPITE
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, BOTH MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE AND THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WITH PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM 40-60%
FOR REGIONAL IMPACTS.
A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY MIST LINGERED AT 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS A RESULT OF YESTERDAY'S RAIN AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY
HAVE CEILINGS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES, AND VFR IS FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES BY THE
AFTERNOON.
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY CREATE MINOR IMPACTS TO THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE. MORE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL
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