616
FXUS61 KPBZ 051949
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
249 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING THAT GOES IN
EFFECT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE RIDGES OF WV AND PA, EXCEPT FOR EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WHICH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING
2) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
3) POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK BRINGS FLOODING CONCERNS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. PEAK TIMES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION STILL LOOK TO BE BETWEEN
10AM AND 5PM FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FRIDAY EVENING
COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW CHARACTER WITH
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING FROM 18:1 TO 21:1.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A NARROW RANGE OF SNOW TOTALS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE 2-3" RANGE IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERN OHIO COUNTIES LOOK LIKELY TO SEE
THE HIGHEST OVERALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS. ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO
UPSLOPING, 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CAMS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
NOW THAT THEY ARE IN THE PICTURE, AND ALL SHOW SOLID ADVISORY
SNOW FOR THE RIDGES, EXCEPT FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WHERE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER, THUS, THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR THAT FORECAST ZONE. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DRY SNOW CHARACTER AND GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE EVENING, AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF INCREASED SNOW RATES, AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS. BE
PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CRASHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE TO NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WITH PREVAILING WIND GUSTS OF
25-30MPH NEAR THE SURFACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO WELL
BELOW ZERO. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10
OR COLDER, WITH -20 TO -25 POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
THESE COLDEST AREAS, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
WITH LITTLE WIND RELIEF EXPECTED, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
THOUGH VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND FAVOR ADVISORY VERSUS
WARNING CRITERIA.
SATURDAY'S FORECASTED LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK DAILY
RECORDS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES. FOR EXAMPLE, ZANESVILLE IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO TOP OUT AT 15F (RECORD IS 17F FROM
2014), AND WHEELING IS FORECAST AT 13F (THE RECORD IS 17F FROM
2007).
KEY MESSAGE 3....
LONG-RANGE MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SHIFT IN WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD FINALLY BRING ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION, BUT COULD ALSO INTRODUCE A FLOODING RISK. THIS
WARMING TREND REMAINS DEPENDENT ON A WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS
MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER CALIFORNIA AND HELPS PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW.
MILDER CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP MELT SNOWPACK. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES OF THE CURRENT SNOWPACK RANGE FROM AROUND 1.4" IN THE
PITTSBURGH METRO, TO 2.3" FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. A
MORE-RAPID MELT OF THIS SNOWPACK COULD AFFECT LOCAL MAINSTEM
RIVERS WHICH REMAIN ICE COVERED AT A DEPTH OF 3 TO 8 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK MAY EXACERBATE CONDITIONS,
LEADING TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
NEED TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) WIDELY SCATTERED STRATOCU THROUGH TONIGHT THICKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT
2) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS STARTING EARLY FRIDAY WITH SNOW
3) TRANSITION TO CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SQUALLS
FRIDAY NIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
DIURNAL MIXING HAS NOW COMPLETELY ERODED THE EARLY MORNING
STRATUS DECK AND, AKIN TO PREVIOUS DAYS, VERY LITTLE TO NO
STRATOCU COVERAGE HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE
PERSISTENT SUGGESTION BY THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE
SOME CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT MOST COVERAGE WILL BE MID TO UPPER LEVEL AS IT THICKENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL RETURN SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CEILINGS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT AND ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN MVFR
AS SNOW ARRIVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND PROBABILITY THEN QUICKLY
INCREASES FOR IFR VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS CEILINGS HOVER
RIGHT ON THE IFR/MVFR LINE, SAVE FKL/DUJ WHERE IFR IS MORE
FAVORED. WIND WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 5-10 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON.
SUCH CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE
SYNOPTIC SHIELD OF SNOW EXITS. AT THAT TIME, VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE ON THE WHOLE, BUT WE MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO A PERIOD
OF SNOW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THAT COULD PROVIDE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WIND WILL ACCORDINGLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ013-020-021-029-031-073-075.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ007>009-014>016-022-074-076>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-513.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ512-514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ510>513.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...MLB
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