365
FXUS61 KPBZ 250202 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRIMMED PART OF THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS OHIO. REMAINDER OF THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD POTENTIAL INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH
2) RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PRELIMINARY 00Z PIT SOUNDING DATA SHOWS SATURATION AND WARM RAIN
PROCESSES, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN A BAND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN ACROSS EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN PA. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY
LOW ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, WHICH WAS ISSUED EARLIER.
NARROW SWATHS OF HIGHER QPF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 2AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE EARLY MONDAY, THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RECENT DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CONFIDED TO AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. AT THIS TIME, THE
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS VERY LOW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BY MIDWEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PROMOTE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PROMOTES OF GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DETERIORATION TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR, IS EXPECTED AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS WRN PA.
WIDESPREAD IFR IS THEN EXPECTED WITH FOG AND STRATUS AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS LATE TONIGHT, AND THE SHOWERS END. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR, TO VFR, IS EXPECTED AS MIXING AND DRY
ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING DAILY
RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR RETURNS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ014-020>022-029-031-
073>078.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ049-050-059-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>511.
DISCUSSION...WM/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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