204
FXUS61 KPBZ 221800
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WV AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN PA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHERE THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP TODAY, BUT TRENDS INDICATE IT IS
LIKELY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN.
2) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THIS AFTERNOON, MOISTURE MAXIMIZES IN AREAS SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMIZING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ABOVE 1000 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF A ROUGH
IDI/PIT/ZZV LINE (40% OR GREATER CHANCE ON HREF PROGS).
EXPECTED 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT IN
THIS SCENARIO. TORNADOES ARE THE SECONDARY THREAT WHERE
CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF LOCALLY BACKED
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM SECTOR, MOST LIKELY SOUTHEAST
OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE THE SPC SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. MORE ISOLATED POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
THE NOTED PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS SUGGEST EFFICIENT RAIN-
PRODUCING STORMS, AS DOES DECENT LOW-LEVEL SOUNDING SATURATION
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO SOME DEGREE UNLESS TRAINING OCCURS.
CAMS ARE ALSO STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION MAY SET UP AND REFS/HREF SUGGESTING
MAXIMUM TOTAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO. SUCH RAINFALL TOTALS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOOD ISSUES. IF LATER CAM RUNS FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL MORE
FAVORABLY ON A REGION (MOST LIKELY TARGET ZONE: NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA), THEN A SHORT-FUSE FLOOD WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD DECREASE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST, LIKELY PULLING OUT OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES OVERNIGHT. A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL LIKELY LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, PRODUCING
STRATUS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, AND AFTER
A POTENTIALLY DREARY SUNRISE TUESDAY, DRY WEATHER AND A TREND
TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH VALUES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLOW HAS DECREASED NEAR TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND LIGHT WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST AT KDUJ AND KBVI. WHILE
WOULD EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY TO MVFR BY EVENING, THE
CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN AFTER DARK TO IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS. SEVERE GUSTS
ARE UNLIKELY WITH MOIST AIRMASS BUT BRIEF LIFR DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE UNTIL 22-00Z.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 00Z AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES. HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND FOG AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY BY 15Z AFTER THE
MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THURSDAY WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/LUPO
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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