147
FXUS61 KPBZ 241136
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
736 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED BY SPC
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TOMORROW UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OHIO. WITH 50 TO 100J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE, LIGHTNING AND SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
MAKE AN APPEARANCE. CURRENT REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 3AM AND 7AM.
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) INTRODUCED A "MARGINAL" (1/5) RISK FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, AS THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH UPPER-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, THIS SETUP MAY FAVOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT INSTEAD. THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS BETWEEN PITTSBURGH AND ZANESVILLE, OH
IS ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 40% TO 50%. IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO,
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL WITHIN 24 HOURS ACROSS PARTS
OF OHIO, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISSUES ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND CREATING ROAD CLOSURES.
BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE, WEAK FORCING, AND ADVANCING DRY AIR.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OTHER THAN POTENTIALLY A FEW SCATTERED MORNING STRATOCUMULUS AT
DUJ, THE TAF PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY MIDDLE AND
UPPER CLOUDS AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. CIG RESTRICTION POTENTIAL
RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY WARM FRONT. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CL
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