795
FXUS61 KPBZ 221754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED FOR EASTERN OHIO, NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE,
AND MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN PA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH MID- WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A DRY
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
2) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WON'T BUDGE MUCH TODAY, AND WE'LL SEE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND
CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW. MORE OF A SCATTERED SHOWER TYPE LOOK TODAY
RATHER THAN A MORE COHERENT SHIELD OF RAIN. THE COLUMN DRIES A
BIT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, BUT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
PRODUCTIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IN THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER. STILL NOT CONCERNED ABOUT HOURLY RATES AS THE 10 KM
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY FOR 1"/HOUR IN ANY GIVEN HOUR IS 10% OR
LESS. 24 HOUR MEAN TOTALS FROM HREF THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY RANGE
FROM A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH, AND EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
PEAKS AROUND 0.75-1.25 INCHES FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. OVERFLOW/AREAL FLOODING THREATS REMAIN, THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PA RIDGES.
SUPPORT FOR RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SET-UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WEST. LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES THEN POINT TOWARD A DRY WEEKEND LOCALLY AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THAT AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BECOMES OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BENEATH THE COLD UPPER LOW, WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, AND
BENEATH THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS, NBM ADVERTISES A 60-70%
CHANCE THAT THE PA & WV RIDGES CAN'T GET ABOVE 60F FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, THE GOAL POSTS SPREAD FROM LOW 60S ON THE
COOL END TO MID 60S ON THE WARM END, AND GIVEN THE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE, IT'S LIKELY A BETTER BET TO HEDGE COOLER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. SO, EVEN OPTIMISTICALLY, MID 60S IS LIKELY
OUR CEILING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR FORECAST PERSISTS. IFR
CONTINUES MOST OF THE DAY SAVE FOR LBE, FKL, AND DUJ, WHICH
HAVE A DOWNSLOPING WIND THAT WILL KEEP THEM MVFR/VFR. NBM PROBS
OF CIGS LESS THAN 1KFT ARE NOT THAT HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
/FALLING INTO THE 30-40% RANGE/, HOWEVER USING UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND LAMP GUIDANCE OPTED TO HANG ON TO IFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS, LIGHT RAIN, OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY IN
WV. THIS WILL CAUSE VIS TO DROP TO IFR AT TIMES WHEN A HEAVIER
SHOWER PASSES. THE TERMINALS IN PA SHOULD ESCAPE THOSE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS.
CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES IN PA
AND WV. THIS WILL START AT DUJ THEN WORK EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER IS ADVECTED IN. IN FACT,
LBE, FKL, AND DUJ WILL LIKELY BE VFR BY THE END FORECAST WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE PEEKING THROUGH. PRECIP CONTINUES ITS SHIFT
WEST INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT WITH ZZV GETTING INTO THE ACTION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS CLOSER. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING COMPARED TO DURING THE DAY.
WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LBE, MGW,
AND DUJ AS TYPICAL WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL THEN SPREAD
INTO THE PIT METRO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
HIGHER THAN 20KTS IS 60-65% ACROSS ALL, BUT ZZV AFTER 6Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH WHEN IT
COMES TO WIND GUSTS AS THE SPREAD IS ONLY 5-7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MVFR AM TO VFR PM
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: VFR. VALLEY FOG AT DAWN IS POSSIBLE AT A
FEW AIRPORTS THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...MLB/LUPO
AVIATION...MCMULLEN
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