140
FXUS61 KPBZ 271117
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
717 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT
THE AREA OF I-70 AS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG BETWEEN
5AM AND 9AM. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 9AM WITH
SURFACE HEATING.
OVERALL, QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST STORY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PASSING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS,
THROUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE-SCALE
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS
EASTWARD. THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL RAINFALL REMAINS LOW,
BELOW 30%. HOWEVER, WITH SIGNIFICANT LEAF ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND, CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF
STANDING WATER ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF FOG RESTRICTIONS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. FOGGY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CIRRUS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PASSING
COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY RETURN CIG RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK... SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE; VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...AK
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