175
FXUS61 KPBZ 192303
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY AS WE
GO INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. DRY, COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT.
- HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
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WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE A COLD FRONT,
LOW- LVL CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED OVER
EASTERN OHIO. PERIODS OF CLEARLY HAS CAUSED SOME RADIATIONAL
HEATING AND TEMPS IN OHIO HAVE GONE UP A FEW DEGREES.
DRY, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZE IMPACTS EACH OF SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY MORNINGS.
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THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSITIONED UNDERNEATH UPPER
TROUGHING SATURDAY, INCLUDING PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THE PASSAGE WILL REINFORCE THE COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE, THERE WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE OR SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS, SAVE FOR CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE AND
INTO NY STATE. DEEP MIXING WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS GUSTY ON SATURDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20MPH ARE NEAR 100% WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS EXCEEDING
30MPH ALONG THE TIMEFRAME OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
FAIRLY FAST, ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THEREAFTER AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL.
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE, THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE
AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON BOTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NBM HAS A 40-60%
CHANCE BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT ELEVATED WINDS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE SETTLED OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE
HWO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IS LIKELY FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RIDGING IS FAVORED FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, POINTING TO
RISING TEMPERATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
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THOUGH ENSEMBLE MODELS VARY IN TROUGH ANALYSIS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY, THE OUTCOME REMAINS THE SAME FOR THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE MONDAY.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONSENSUS ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO DROP FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE SYSTEMS
ARRIVAL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE THEN LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. DEPTH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD,
WHICH WILL STRONGLY INFLUENCE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND THE RAPIDITY OF
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE. DRY WEATHER WILL BE FAVORED GIVEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY IN THE POST-COLD FRONT PASSAGE ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM W-E AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING CIGS FROM 10-15KFT
ACROSS OHIO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THESE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRATOCU SHOULD
REDEVELOP FOR MOST AIRPORTS SATURDAY UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH AND
COLD ADVECTION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FKL AND DUJ, WHERE BROKEN VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WHERE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT IS AVAILABLE
UNDER THE TROUGH.
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA, AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS, SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WNW WIND FROM MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...34
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/34
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...34/FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM
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