164
FXUS61 KPBZ 012330
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE CONTINUES, POSING HEAT RISKS TO
INDIVIDUALS SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT COOLING
CAPABILITIES.
2) PATTERN SHIFT INCREASES RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
SEVERE THREATS, DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EASILY REACH LOW/MID 90S WITH ISOLATED POCKETS (ESPECIALLY
URBAN AREAS) NEAR 100F. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL ALSO KEEP
MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S LOCKED IN, PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF HEAT, COMBINED WITH WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHTS IN THE
70S, WILL RESULT IN HIGH PROBABILITY FOR HEAT RISKS -- ESPECIALLY
HEAT-SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS AND THOSE WITHOUT HEAT-MITIGATING
TOOLS. TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THESE HEAT RISKS AND METHODS FOR
MITIGATING ITS IMPACT, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT-TOOLS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY GIVEN
POTENTIAL EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, RELIEF (WHICH IS USED LIGHTLY) IS PEGGED FOR THE
START OF THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND (SATURDAY) DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER PLUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. NOTE
THAT EVEN THIS RELIEF FAVORS HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S, ALONG WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES SITTING IN THE 70S; THE WPC HEAT RISK TOOL
MAINTAINS MAJOR TO EXTREME (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4,
RESPECTIVELY) AREAWIDE SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING TO MODERATE TO
MAJOR (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OUT OF 4, RESPECTIVELY) SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LATE WEEK (FRI/SAT) BREAKDOWN OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER
RIDGE SHARES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL
UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN (I.E. WEAKENING OF ITS AMPLIFICATION WHILE
SHIFTING SOUTH) STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
FAVORS INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH
GRADUAL FALLS IN AREA TEMPERATURE READINGS. BUT THAT REMAINS AS
MUCH AS CAN BE CONFIDENT IN FOR THIS PERIOD.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SUCH PATTERN SHIFT RESULTS IN HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THIS THOUGHT IS BACKED BY HISTORICAL
COMPARISONS OF THIS CHANGE WITH AREA SEVERE RESULTS. HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS REACHING THIS TIME RANGE
PUTS MANY KEY FACTORS (STORM TIMING, SHEAR FACTORS, POSITIONING
OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES) IN A DIFFICULT TO DISCERN PROJECTION;
THIS DOESN'T EVEN FACTOR THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION
THE DAY PRIOR INFLUENCES THE OUTCOMES OF A GIVEN DAY.
INDIVIDUALS AND PLANNERS EYEING POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE
JULY 4TH WEEKEND ARE RECOMMENDED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS
WHILE UNDERSTANDING CLARITY ON TIMING AS WELL AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE FULLY DISCERNIBLE UNTIL EVEN THE MORNING
OF.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE. CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF RELATIVELY SCANT CUMULUS COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY BE SPOTTY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY IN FOG/HAZE,
WITH MGW MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE MODEST IMPACTS. NEARLY CALM
WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE STORMS AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ACCOMPANYING RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (TODAY):
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 98/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1901
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (TODAY):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
AVIATION...CL
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