113
FXUS61 KPBZ 282310
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DIMINISHING IMPACTS FOR THIS EVENING WITH EXITING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WANING STORMS TONIGHT TRANSITIONS TO A DRIER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
2) WEST TO EAST TAPERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LAST GASP OF FRONTAL AND SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT SE OF PITTSBURGH
WILL PUSH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNSET. COOL, DRY ADVECTION PLUS THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
ENDS MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT, SAVE FOR WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT COULD SQUEEZE A BRIEF,
LOCALIZED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AROUND THIS LOW PLUS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
COULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS WEDNESDAY
(EAST OF I-77) AND THURSDAY (MAINLY ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN) IN
WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A DRYING PERIOD WITH SLOWLY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE.
THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO POSE RISKS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 500 J/KG).
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
SLOWLY ENDS THE STORM THREAT AT TAF ISSUANCE WHILE DRY ADVECTION
RESULTS IN A FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCU DECKS.
ENOUGH COOL ADVECTION OVER LAKE ERIE PLUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW SITS NE OF THE
REGION MAY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREAD OF AN MVFR TO LOCALLY
IFR STRATOCU DECK GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. MORE LIMITED MOISTURE
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD CAUSE THIS CIG TO BOUNCE BETWEEN
SCATTERED AND BROKEN WHILE OFFERING SOME VARIABILITY IN ON SET
TIMING.
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD LIFT ANY STRATOCU TO VFR
HEIGHTS BY AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY (THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN
MVFR COULD OCCUR AMID RISING) WHILE DRY ADVECTION SLOWLY ERODES
CU COVERAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE NW/N UPPER FLOW
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER (FAVORING EAST OF I-79)
BUT PROBABILITY OF TERMINAL IMPACT IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE
STARTS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLOW
PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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