637
FXUS61 KPBZ 260127
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
927 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE EVENING SHIFT TO TAKE OUT THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
2) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WHILE A
STRAY SHOWER COULD HANG UP ALONG THE RIDGES IN TUCKER COUNTY, A
CLOUD AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AND ADDRESSED THE DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPS
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN AND DEWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RIDGING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING OF THE LOW. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. DEPENDING ON THE THE DEGREE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
HEATING, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY MAY. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE PATTERN MAY REINTRODUCE AT
LEAST FROST HEADLINES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
30S. HOWEVER, SEVERAL FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, PARTICULARLY
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND, BOTH WHICH PLAY A KEY ROLE ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MULTI-LAYERED STRATOCU DECK LAYS ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED NORTH AT DUJ, WHICH IS
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MIST. FURTHER SOUTH, MOST PORTS ARE
EXPERIENCING MVFR DECKS JUST OVER 1KFT, EXCEPT FOR ZZV WHICH
FINDS ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF THE WELL DEFINED STRATOCU DECK EDGE.
HI-RES MODELING CONTINUES TO FAVOR A REDUCTION IN CIGS
SPREADING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS PUTTING MORE
PORTS INTO IFR. LIFR AND SPOTTY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY FOR
FKL/DUJ/LBE/MGW. DRY ADVECTION IS SET TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, THESE COMBINE TO BRING
GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS CLOSER TO DAWN. PORTS ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREAKING BACK INTO MVFR
CLOSER TO SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH SOME OUTLIER HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
EVEN QUICKER IMPROVEMENTS. THIS WOULD BE FAR FASTER THAN THE
USUAL DIURNAL MIX OUT PROCESS AND THE CURRENT TAFS TRY TO TOE
THIS LINE AND ARE A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. FURTHER LIFTING OF
CIGS CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD
SCATTERING TAKES HOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA- WIDE
VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
ONCE SKIES SCATTER ON SUNDAY, A LONG PERIOD OF VFR
SETTLES IN. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS (WITH LOW
PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS) RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION
CHANCES ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS
THE WEATHER PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/SHALLENBERGER/LUPO
AVIATION...AK
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