176
FXUS61 KPBZ 091700
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
100 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
2) RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
3) WINDY AND COOLER LATE WEEK WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND EAST OF A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS SE MI, TO LAKE ERIE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING
ASCENT IN WARM, MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE. LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT REACHES OHIO. INCREASING SHEAR (0-6KM AROUND 50KT) AND
INSTABILITY (ML CAPE 500-1000 J/KG) AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO PROGGED,
RESULTING IN HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW ANY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
AFFECTS INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT THE AREA IS
IN A SLIGHT RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE MINIMAL. COLD NW FLOW AND A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, AND THERE COULD
BE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. AN
OVERALL VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING COLD FRONTS. STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF ONE OF THOSE FRONTS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, UNTIL MIXING AND GUSTS
BOTH SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY,
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
WAVE EXITS.
OUTLOOK...
MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WIND ARE LIKELY THURSDAY IN COLD NW
FLOW AND WITH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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