759
FXUS61 KPBZ 302310
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
710 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN THE KEY MESSAGE AHEAD OF
THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FAVORED THIS WEEK BEFORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW AREA TEMPERATURE TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY AND
EVER SO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY WHILE PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THIS PATTERN CHANGES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIFT AND SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LITTLE MORE CAN BE SAID
AT THIS POINT DUE TO LARGE VARIANCES IN THE SHAPE AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH CREATING DIFFERENCE PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION (ALONG WITH ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS).
THE RANGE OF OUTCOMES SEEMS TO BE BOUNDED BY 1) A MORE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH HINTED BY SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES RESULTS IN LOWER
ACCUMULATION; AND 2) A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH FAVORED BY
A HEALTHY PORTION OF GEPS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN A GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.5
INCHES. IN GENERAL, THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL RANGES FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN THE
TIMING OF TROUGH EXITING, RANGING FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO
TUESDAY. SO, LONG-RANGE POP OUTLOOKS MAY EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATIONS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIOS, THE OVERALL HAZARD RISK APPEARS LOW AS
BUOYANCY IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED (OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY WITH GREATER THAN 80%
PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE BEING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG). THE ONLY HAZARD TO
MONITOR IS FLOOD RISKS AS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A GULF MOISTURE
DRAW TO PUSH PWAT VALUES NEAR/ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE; IF THIS
OCCURS WHILE STORM MOTION IS SLOW AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY MANIFESTS
TO AID RAINFALL RATES, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING RISKS COULD
MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80% CHANCE) OF VFR AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF PATCHY FOG THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY IN VALLEYS AND SOUTH
OF I-70 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR APPEARS FAVORED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES OF
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN RETURNING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/LUPO
AVIATION...CERMAK
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