700
FXUS61 KPBZ 081142
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY GIVEN 12Z
WEATHER BALLOON SHOWING AMPLE DRY AIR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RELATIVELY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH END OF WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE QUITE DRY, WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE INGESTION OF VERY DRY AIR
INTO THE MIXED LAYER, WITH HREF MINIMUM RH SHOWING WIDESPREAD
DEWS INTO THE 10S ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DRY
10-HR FUELS AND RAISE FIRE CONCERNS, THROUGH WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10MPH. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE
WARMING TREND SINCE ITS PARENT LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
RACING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, DEEPER INTO NORTHEASTERN CANADA.
STILL, IT COULD BRING SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, THOUGH ANY CONVECTION WOULD STRUGGLE (AT LEAST
INITIALLY) WITH ENTRAINMENT ISSUES DUE TO AN ABUNDANCE OF
PRECEDING DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND THIS
TIME BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS (PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH REMAIN 10% OR LESS). THIS FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE A
SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL
FORECAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT EASTERN RIDGING BUILDS IN THEREAFTER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A GROWING SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLES THAT THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS THAT EASTERN RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND A
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALLOWS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO
TRAVERSE THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACH DURING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW FLOW VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ENCROACH DUJ/FKL LATE THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
CARRY CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ057-058-068-
069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
509>512.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/MILCAREK/88
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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