989  
FXUS61 KPBZ 241126  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
726 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND STALLS ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY,  
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY  
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO  
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A 594-596DM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY  
REGION TODAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AT AROUND 20 DEG C.  
SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALSO EXPECTED IN SSW  
FLOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE AREA TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE  
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS, SHOULD RESULT IN  
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS  
EASTERN OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF  
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHERE THE HEAT  
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIDGE, THOUGH SOME PASSING  
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
AND FRIDAY, AND CONTINUE SATURDAY  
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD  
TONIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT, AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AS THE  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT  
IS ALSO PROGGED TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PA/OH. ML  
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, AS PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES.  
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30KT, WITH INCREASED STORM  
MOTION EXPECTED. IF TRAINING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE W-E ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH  
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
GUSTY WIND IN SOME STORMS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ,  
THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT DRY AIR ALOFT LATER IN  
THE DAY.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE  
FRIDAY EVENING, AS MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED LIFT EXITS,  
AND THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH.  
 
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN ON  
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY  
REGION, AND THE SURFACE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FRIDAY (1.6-1.8),  
THOUGH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR COULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND  
POTENTIAL IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE LIMITED TO AREAS  
OF TRAINING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS CROSSING THE REGION,  
AND AS THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD  
FRONT.  
 
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE EXTENT WILL BE HIGHLY  
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 90S, THOUGH THEY SHOULD  
STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY  
- MAINLY DRY MONDAY  
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY  
- WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,  
AS IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR FROPA IN  
INDIVIDUAL MODELS EXIST.  
 
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
OH/TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO  
VALLEY REGION SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS  
HIGH ON MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF  
THE DAY. THE HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE S-SW, AS THE  
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS  
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BE UNDER  
THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN, WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES CROSSING  
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM  
CHANCES.  
 
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE WEEK  
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SW, UNTIL NW FLOW  
BECOMES PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD  
RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH COOLER  
AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY  
WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-6KFT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF  
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KNOTS.  
 
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. THE  
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF  
PIT/AGC.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY  
AND RETURN ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.  
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND  
MAINTAINING DAILY PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES PEAKING  
EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR OHZ039-048-057-058-068.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WM  
NEAR TERM...WM  
SHORT TERM...WM  
LONG TERM...WM  
AVIATION...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER  
 
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