580
FXUS61 KPBZ 060117
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
817 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WARNING FOR MOST HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AS OF 8:15P, SAVE
SOUTHERN NOBLE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGY/SEVERE CONCERNS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
3) RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAINFALL DECREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXIT TO OUR EAST. AS THEY DO SO, THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS BACK SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
I-70. NO ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGY CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCALITY <0.25".
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. HREF PEGS EASTERN OHIO, NORTHWEST PA,
AND THE WEST VIRGINIA RIDES AS SOME OF THE MORE LIKELY AREAS TO
SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD
OBSERVATIONS JUSTIFY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND
ADVANCES ON THE REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A LOW WILL DRAG
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPLY THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINING WITH AROUND 500
J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LARGELY
DEPENDS ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING AND HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. HOWEVER, A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SUPPLYING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
CERTAINLY RAISES CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS BUT ALL HAZARDS COULD BE AT PLAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH. EVEN IF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SET, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 74
KDUJ: 64/2016 67
KHLG: 74/2009 76
KPHD: 75/2000 74
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 74
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 77
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE, DISORGANIZED RAIN PERSISTS SOUTH OF PIT THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
DUE TO ADVANCING DRY AIR AND WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT NORTH OF PIT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS AND VIS OVERNIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST AT LIFR TO IFR THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON (BETWEEN 19Z TO 23Z) AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ALONG THE EDGE OF A WARM
FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON; MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z TO
19Z.
OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A PASSING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
VFR AND QUIETER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/AK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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