709
FXUS61 KPBZ 180709
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
309 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME DRY WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS DURING THE DAY.
2) NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON THURSDAY.
3) WARMING TREND WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CURRENTLY, LIGHT WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT COOLING. BY THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
WITH POCKETS OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE EXPECTED WARMING
TREND (SEE KEY MESSAGE 3 FOR MORE DETAILS), PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO FALL AS RAIN. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT MOST WILL
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN (UP TO 0.05"). THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.10"
OF RAIN BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING AREAS SOUTH
AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THURSDAY NIGHT,
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE GENERAL NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING BRIEF, PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES TO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY.
THIS WARM-UP WILL BE TEMPORARY DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR MOST WHICH IS AROUND THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE (NEAR 100%
PROBABILITY) OF VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD, THOUGH
ENCROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT
IN A FEW SPRINKLES FAVORING NORTHWEST PA TERMINAL AFTER 00Z;
MORE LIKELY, SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH THE OVERRUNNING WARM AIR
LEADS TO MVFR CIGS AFT 00Z (40-60% PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME).
OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY OFFERS
LOW PROBABILITY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WHILE MAINTAINING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR CIG RESTRICTIONS.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL IMPACT WEATHER PERIOD FAVORS THE EARLY
WEEKEND AMID SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT IN NW FLOW, THOUGH TIMING AND
DEGREE OF IMPACTS VARIES WIDELY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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