749
FXUS61 KPBZ 251120
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
720 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH PASSING
COLD FRONT TODAY
2) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROKEN RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO EASTERN OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH PER HOUR. A FEW POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN OHIO, PRODUCING RATES
BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR. LIMITED FORCING AND
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
THE PITTSBURGH AREA AFTER DAWN.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 11AM AND 1PM TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH, AS SBCAPE VALUES RISE TO BETWEEN 200 AND 500J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 2PM AND 6PM AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTY
BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RIDGING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, TRACKING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE
THE DEGREE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEATING, A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY MAY AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE PATTERN
MAY REINTRODUCE AT LEAST FROST HEADLINES, WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE 30S. HOWEVER, SEVERAL FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
PARTICULARLY CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND, BOTH WHICH PLAY A KEY
ROLE ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH 15Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT ACTUAL
FRONT BETWEEN 15Z-22Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 15Z FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 BUT A SUBTLE WARM-SECTOR ZONE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THIS APPROXIMATE MARKER MAY SEE PERIODS OF VFR MIXED
WITH MVFR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR (SOUTH) TO IFR (NORTH) CEILING
RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE BY 00Z IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT,
BUT VARIANCES IN SCATTERED VS. BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE PUTS SOME
PAUSE ON THE HOUR-TO-HOUR CONSISTENCY OF SEEING THESE
CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL BREAKS AMID LIGHT WIND MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO CREATE FOG AND LIFR CIGS IN SOME
LOCATIONS (MOST LIKELY AT BVI/FKL/DUJ). NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
CEILING IMPROVEMENT TRENDS ARE FAVORED BY HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
AFTER ~10Z DUE TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING EAST OF LAKE
ERIE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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