379
FXUS61 KPBZ 061513
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1013 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAIN RETURNS LATE FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN,
FOLLOWED BY SNOW SHOWERS, ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR I-80.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
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BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
AND QUIET TODAY. WITH DIURNAL MIXING, EXPECT WIND GUSTS EAST OF
PITTSBURGH TO INCREASE BETWEEN 20-25MPH WITH AN EXITING TROUGH.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PROMPTING COLD ADVECTION.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR AVERAGE,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED WITH INCREASE CLOUD
COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS
- DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
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PROBABILITY OF RAIN INCREASES AFTER 12PM FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A HIGH VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, A 50KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
EXTEND NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NEW YORK FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERED LOW GIVEN
ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION; CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN 20-50J/KG.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY
WITH INCREASE SUBSIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD; UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
- MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES
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THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO THE MS VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. OCCASIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
FALLING TEMPERATURES, AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS.
WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS, THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS AGREE THAT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
BE CENTERED NEAR OR OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON
MONDAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -9 DEG C, ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A W-NW FLOW, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A LAKE
AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. NBM PROBABILITIES APPROACH
40-50 PERCENT OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES, THOUGH MESOSCALE FEATURES, SUCH AS A POSSIBLE
REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH, WILL PLAY A ROLE IN EXACT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND THE RESULTING LOCATION OF ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THOUGH AREAS NORTH OF I-80 COULD SEE A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S, WITH COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL ALLOW WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN FAR
MORE TAME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH MOST IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS). WINDS THEN SETTLE AGAIN IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS, AND RESTRICTIONS ALONG
WITH IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A 50-70% CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR IFR.
FOR WINDS, ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A 40-60% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS BOTH ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OF THE SEASON) AS A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/MLB/AK
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