355
FXUS61 KPBZ 280140
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS INTO TOMORROW FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL KEEP THE MAIN STEAM RIVERS ELEVATED
INTO TOMORROW
2) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUIETER, MINUS
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RECENT CONVECTION. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT PITTSBURGH TOMORROW; THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CREST BETWEEN 18FT TO 19FT.
THE RECREATIONAL BOATERS ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO HIGH FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE ALLEGHENY, MONONGAHELA, AND OHIO
RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOW SOME VARIATION IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN A TROUGH DUG
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, A WARM AND WET AIRMASS OVER THE SE
CONUS AND THE LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS US ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO ROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH BUT POPS
LOOK RATHER LOW. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS WE GET MORE TROUGHING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF MASON-DIXON LINE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DURING INSTANCES OF
HEAVIER RAIN, CEILINGS COULD DROP TO HIGH-END MVFR AND
VISIBILITY TO IFR. THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN WV INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE AFTER RAIN DEPARTS. WITH THE ONSET OF
HEATING/MIXING UNDER CLEARING SKIES ON THURSDAY, A QUICK RETURN
TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY, WIND WILL FRESHEN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
AREAWIDE VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ513-514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/LUPO
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