422
FXUS61 KPBZ 031727
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL MESSAGING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY
2) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER WHILE CAUSING TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT CONCERNS REMAINS LOW, OUTSIDE OF
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS WITHIN URBAN AREAS, DESPITE UPPER 80
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MAINTAINING
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY AMONG
AVAILABLE MODELS IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF THESE FEATURES THAT
COULD ALTER THE PEAK PERIOD FOR RAIN AS WELL AS THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT DICTATING SEVERE RISKS. IN GENERAL, AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL (WHETHER SATURDAY VS. SUNDAY) WITH ENOUGH DEWPOINT RISES
COULD FOSTER ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME KIND;
OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS (I.E. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING) IS
LIKELY TO SEE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND THUS LIMITED TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THREAT.
LONG-RANGE TRENDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND SUMMER-LIKE HEAT FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER RIDGING,
THOUGH SCENARIOS REMAIN WHERE A CUT-OFF LOW LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA TO CREATE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
LIGHT NORTH WIND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SUNRISE
TOMORROW, WIND WILL FRESHEN UP TO 5KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTLOOK... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM NW-
SE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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