707
FXUS61 KPBZ 070558
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE TIMING IS TRENDING PERHAPS A LITTLE EARLIER ON SATURDAY
BUT THE OVERALL LOOK AND THREATS REMAIN SIMILAR, FAVORING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE. IF ANYTHING, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE ON THE
RISE, WITH MEAN CAPE VALUES ON THE UPTICK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
2) NEXT RAIN/STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AMPLIFIED ALBEIT POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND ADVANCE ON THE REGION SATURDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW WILL CLIMB OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THEM. STORMS ALONG THE INITIAL
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
DEPICTIONS OF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH QUICKER MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR FAVORING AN ARRIVAL INTO PITTSBURGH IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SLOWER MODELS LIKE THE NAM FAVORING LATE
AFTERNOON. THE TREND IN MOST MODELS THOUGH HAS BEEN PUSHING
TOWARDS EARLIER TIMING. THIS TIMING COULD BE RATHER IMPORTANT IN
DICTATING HOW MUCH CLEARING AND HEATING WE ARE ABLE TO ACHIEVE
BETWEEN WHAT COULD BE A POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE MORNING ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AND THE ACTUAL LINE OF STORMS.
CAPE ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS AND THE HREF
SUPPORTS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AVAILABLE, WHILE A REASONABLE
HIGHER SOLUTION (MORE HEATING AND/OR A LARGER BREAK BETWEEN
STORMS) WOULD SUPPORT CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.
SFC-6KM SHEAR IS BETWEEN 35-45 KTS AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IF THE BOUNDARY ORIENTS MORE SW-NE THEN
THIS FLOW PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH AND A QUICKER CONGEALING INTO
A LINE OF STORMS RAISING THE WIND THREAT AND FOCUSING THE
TORNADO THREAT INTO SECTORS OF THE LINE THAT CAN SURGE MORE DUE
EASTWARD. IF THE BOUNDARY IS SLIGHTLY MORE DUE S-N ORIENTED THEN
UPDRAFTS WILL PROPAGATE ABOUT 45 DEGREES OFF OF THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORTING A LONGER PERIOD OF
DISCRETE STORM MODES AND A MUCH GREATER INGESTION OF STREAMWISE
VORTICITY INTO THE UPDRAFTS RAISING THE TORNADO THREAT. AT THIS
TIME, ALL THREATS REMAIN IN PLAY, BUT BOUNDARY ORIENTATION WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE INTO JUST HOW MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT WE SEE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THEIR PREVIOUS
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY LARGELY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN MORE FOCUSED SWATHS
ALONG THUNDERSTORM TRACKS. WITH LARGELY DRY WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, SOME DRAINING AND RECEDING OF WATER FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS COULD HELP TO MITIGATE FURTHER FLOOD ISSUES TOMORROW. THE
RATHER QUICK FORWARD SPEED OF THESE STORMS PROMOTES HEAVY BUT
BRIEF DOWNPOURS FOR ANY ONE LOCATION AS THE LINE CROSSES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A RATHER DRY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD EJECT AND
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW LOCKED INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS OPENING WAVE THEN PRESSES EASTWARD DURING
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN SEEMINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION
RETURNING RAIN AND POSSIBLY STORMS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
COMPLEX SITUATION OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW COULD
LEAD TO SOME STARK CHANGES IN TIMING DIFFERENCES PRESENTED IN
THE CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES.
THERE IS STILL A LOT TO COME INTO LINE FOR THIS SYSTEM, BUT
MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS ARE ALREADY TRYING TO PICK UP ON WHAT
COULD BE LOW END SEVERE CHANCES DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
BUT 5-10 KT WIND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
INCLUDED FOG MENTION ONLY AT DUJ.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
EVENING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS (LOW PROBABILITY
THUNDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH. CONTINUED TO COVER THIS WITH PROB30 GIVEN LOWER
SPATIAL CONFIDENCE. A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE A LINE OF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING AS MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL INTO EASTERN OHIO WILL BE ~18Z, WESTERN PA ~20Z, AND
THE RIDGES ~22Z. PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND, SMALL HAIL, AND A TORNADO POSSIBLE. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS,
MIXING WILL PROMOTE NON-CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN CLEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
WIND VEERS WESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR AND QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR STATIONS AROUND THE AREA FOR MARCH 7TH. EVEN IF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SET, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
RECORD...... FORECAST HIGH
KPIT: 76/1983 76
KDUJ: 64/2016 70
KHLG: 74/2009 77
KPHD: 75/2000 76
KZZV: 77/2009,1983 76
KMGW: 79/1995,1983 78
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK/RACKLEY/MLB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page