696
FXUS61 KPBZ 061711
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL LOCALLY
USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AND
PLEASANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80).
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AFTER MONDAY AS A NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS AND DEPARTS, ALLOWING A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER
80S). THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE
WITH SUNSET, LEAVING A CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COOL AIR OVER THE
WARMER RIVERS SHOULD LEAD TO A ROUND OF VALLEY FOG - MOST
LIKELY TO IMPACT LOCATIONS LIKE FKL, LBE, AND HLG. THIS FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR THEREAFTER.
WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. WIND BECOMES LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND VEERS SLIGHTLY TO A MORE EASTERN DIRECTION FOR
LABOR DAY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRONGLY FAVORS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ANY
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE TIED TO BRIEF, PRE-DAWN RIVER
VALLEY FOG. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE GENERAL RESTRICTIONS ARRIVES
WITH A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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