418
FXUS61 KPBZ 151205
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS, AND LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING TODAY AND TONIGHT
2) STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN, POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AND STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
3) COLDER WITH SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR, SO THE FULL POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN THIS WIND WILL
LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS, WHERE A DOWNSLOPING SE WIND IS LIKELY TO REACH 45-50
MPH FROM MID MORNING INTO TONIGHT. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALSO
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 40KT OF WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING BY MID MORNING. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 45 MPH
OR GREATER ARE ALSO 70-85 PERCENT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING
ACROSS NRN OH INTO NW PA. ADDED COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR TO A WIND ADVISORY WITH GUSTS IN THESE AREAS NEAR
50MPH. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS ARE EXPECTED, BUT HREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT INDICATE THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AREAS ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY MAY ALSO
NEED A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT, THOUGH HELD OFF ON THIS
ISSUANCE IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW ADVANCES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST CAMS INDICATE A DECAYING
LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING,
REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MUCAPE IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH BY THE TIME THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REACHES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING
WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY LEFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND TO
MIX DOWN AS THIS LINE APPROACHES.
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OF
MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
PITTSBURGH. MUCH OF WRN PA AND NRN WV ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS, AGAIN DUE TO THE REASONING ABOVE OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND TO MIX DOWN. AREAS FROM
DUJ TO LBE TO TUCKER COUNTY WV HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE WITH A LATER
FROPA TIMING AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD DIMINISH ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
WV WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AFTER FROPA, ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION,
WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURE MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW. SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH A CROSSING
UPPER TROUGH, AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IN COLD W-NW FLOW.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR TWO HIGHEST NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE
RIDGES. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A WARM FRONT MAY RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPING WIND THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY AT ALL SITES, WITH MAX WINDS RAMPING UP IN THE 18-00Z
TIMEFRAME. NBM PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS GIVE A 60% TO 70% PROB FOR
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND PA RIDGES.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS AT THE LBE/FKL/DUJ TAF SITES TO NEAR 40
KNOTS BY THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. DUJ AND
POSSIBLY FKL WILL SEE MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE EARLY MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A CROSSING
COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY MONDAY WITH A
STRONG CROSSING COLD FRONT. MAINLY GUSTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA DUE TO TIMING, BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL LINE BEGINS TO CLEAR. POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. ONLY
MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
RIDGES. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
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