702
FXUS61 KPBZ 221149
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
749 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
TODAY
2) CONTINUED WARM WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE 00Z PIT
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
600MB, SO THE COLUMN WILL NEED TO MOISTEN SOME BEFORE RAIN
REACHES THE GROUND. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OH, THOUGH INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED (LESS THAN 500 J/KG ML CAPE.)
THERE IS SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PHD-ZZV FOR A BRIEF WINDOW LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF PIT DURING THE
DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD, BEFORE STALLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA/SOUTHERN OH. QPF IS PROGGED TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHER PA/OH
THURSDAY, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK
ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.
A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS BY SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, AND A
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED (ML CAPE <500 J/KG) WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW FAST
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. MAINTAINED A MODEL BLEND OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH IF THE FASTER SCENARIOS WERE TO HAPPEN, POPS COULD BE
FURTHER REDUCED IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
READINGS GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LAST OF THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
15Z. CEILING DROPS BEHIND THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO STEEP,
AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT VFR FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY,
ALTHOUGH VFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
I-70. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO MORE OF A WNW DIRECTION AS A
FRONT SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
AFTERNOON GUSTS POSSIBLE.
PAST 18Z, ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TOW,
MAY FORM SOUTH OF I-70. ZZV HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE,
AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR A POTENTIAL STORM THERE.
OTHERWISE, CHANCES AT MGW ARE DEEMED TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THE
MOMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
WIND. SOME STRATUS MAY FORM UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY
UNDER 50 PERCENT AT PRESENT, SO LEFT RESTRICTIONS OUT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CL
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