440
FXUS61 KPBZ 071741
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PASSING TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RETURNS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, SUPPORTED BY DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH.
LONG-RANGE MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TRACKING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS, WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S
AND RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
A FEW AREAS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 5%-15%. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LATER
TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY DECREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE PROLONGED PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A BUILDING RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED
TO TERMINALS EXCEPT PERHAPS AT FKL. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT; RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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