523
FXUS61 KPBZ 161144
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST. CONTINUING TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT
2) POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
3) SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY, THEN DRY SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, THOUGH
OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM AS
WELL, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW'S
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THAT TIME. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AT 850MB ARE PROGGED AT 55-65 KT,
WITH 50-60KT AT 700 MB. SHEAR FROM 0-6KM IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 60-70KT, WITH MU CAPE 500-1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS, AND A
POSSIBLE PRE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. MOST AVAILABLE CAMS INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AS THEY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT, BUT DIFFER ON SPECIFIC DETAILS. EVEN IF INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES, THE SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF THE JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS. HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT, THOUGH TIMING AND SPEED OF
REDEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION. EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ON THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME, ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS INDICATE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FROM NEAR PIT AND AREAS SOUTH, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE FACTORS LISTED ABOVE. SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH (0-6KM 60-70KT)WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.
AGAIN, DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAPID STORM MOTION WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD BE
A LIMITING FACTOR, THOUGH ANY TRAINING OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF RAIN
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 20-40 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD OF 5-6 THOUSAND FEET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BENEATH A DECK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED VCSH
MENTION FOR MOST TAF SITES, SAVE MGW. MINIMAL INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VFR RETURNS
SATURDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CL
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