475  
FXUS61 KPBZ 111959  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
259 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT,  
COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE  
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO HAVE RETREATED AS FAR NORTH AS IT IS  
GOING TO, WITH MORE THAN 90% OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR.  
MICHIGAN, LAKE ERIE, AND NEW YORK REMAIN OVERCAST WITH WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE HURON. THE LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK  
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT.  
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM, AND  
DID NOT GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH ALL  
COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN  
INCH OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE, GENERALLY NORTH OF I 80. THIS WILL  
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE,  
WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLEARING EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DURING  
THE AFTERNOON. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL EACH BE A COUPLE DEGREES  
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE  
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE KEEPING  
THE STORM SYSTEM TOGETHER A BIT LONGER BEFORE IT WEAKENS  
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE  
OF LIKELY POPS DOWN TO US 422, AND NOW HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR  
TWO LOCATIONS COME IN WITH SNOWFALLS OVER AN INCH, BUT THIS  
SYSTEM WON'T BRING ANYTHING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.  
 
SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT  
WILL BE LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES,  
THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DIDN'T MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGE TO  
THE INHERITED POPS, BUT HAVE STUCK WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION  
SHOWN BY THE SREF/GEFS COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. MANY  
LOCATIONS COULD BEGIN INITIALLY WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES, BUT THE  
BULK OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL FALL AS RAIN. TEMPERATURES  
EACH NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING, WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE  
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THERE STILL IS NOT A LOT OF MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED  
FORECAST. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUING  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN  
WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS  
RAIN. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF DRIES OUT CONDITIONS, WHILE  
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AROUND FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE  
TRANSITIONING INTO A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN. ONCE  
AGAIN, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND  
AND FEW CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH  
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN  
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z FOR MOST SITES. FOR FKL/DUJ, A SNOW SHOWER  
MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO  
MENTION IN THE TAFS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR WED UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE.  
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS WED NIGHT/THU WITH ANOTHER  
CROSSING TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH FRI/SAT  
LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page