132
FXUS61 KPBZ 102348
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY EXPANDED INTO THE LOWLAND ZONES OF WESTMORELAND,
FAYETTE, AND MONONGALIA COUNTIES WITH DOWNSLOPING WIND
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSLOPE AND DOWNWIND OF THE RIDGE-LINE. WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
2) A POTENT TROUGH IS POSSIBLE LATE-WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WHICH MAY BRING WINDS AND A COOL-DOWN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL TREK ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT, AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
BRING RAIN AND SOME WINDS WITH IT.
THE FIRST IMPACTS FROM WIND WILL RAMP UP IN THE PENNSYLVANIA
RIDGES INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE RIDGE- PERPENDICULAR SOUTH-EASTERLIES
IN THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINA, WITH
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING THE RIDGETOPS GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 40MPH AFTER 8PM AS FLOW ACCELERATES UP AND OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
OVERNIGHT, THE LOW WILL APPROACH AND THE SFC-850MB LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO STABILIZE AROUND THE RIDGE-LINES, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BOTH ACCELERATE FLOW AT THE RIDGETOPS AS HIGH AS 45MPH TO
55MPH, BUT ALSO MAKE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DOWNSLOPING IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS (WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45MPH TO 55MPH MOST POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SUBURBS OF
MORGANTOWN, UNIONTOWN, CONNELLSVILLE, EASTERN SUBURBS OF MOUNT
PLEASANT, AND DERRY). THERE IS STILL A QUESTION OF IF THIS
OCCURS OR NOT BASED ON THE EXACT THERMODYNAMICS, BUT THOUGH THE
RISK WAS PRUDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE, PARTICULARLY WITH THE
WORST- CASE SCENARIO OF WINDS NEAR UNIONTOWN OF 60MPH. THE OLD
WIND ADVISORY ENCOMPASSED ALL HIGH TERRAIN. LOWLAND ZONES WERE
ADDED IN WESTMORELAND, FAYETTE, AND MONONGALIA, BUT IN REALITY,
THE GUSTIEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY CONFINED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.
INTO SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL DEPART AND SURFACE PROFILES WILL
BECOME LESS STABLE IN THE SFC-850MB LAYER, MAKING BOTH SYNOPTIC
AND DOWNSLOPE WIND LESS LIKELY BY THE 11AM TO 2PM WINDOW. THIS
IS ALSO THE END TIME FOR THE WIND ADVISORY.
RAIN AMOUNTS, AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN HAVE BECOME
MORE CONFIDENT. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS WITHIN AND ROUGHLY 50 MILES
WEST OF THE RIDGES WILL ACTUALLY TAMPER RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH MOST
LIKELY TOTALS LESS THAN 0.75" IN WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV,
WITH A WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF 1.25".
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD INTO EASTERN
OHIO AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST PA WITH THE ABSENCE OF DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS AND THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH-
SIDE OF THE LOW AND A REGION OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
GENERALIZED ASCENT. EVEN THEN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE RANGE OF 1" TO 1.75", WITH WORST-CASE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 2" TO 3". HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AXIS OF UP TO 2" IN 6HR, BUT EVEN THEN
THOSE AMOUNTS ARE STILL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. NONETHELESS, AREAL FLOODING WHERE RAIN IS
MAXIMIZED IS POSSIBLE, BUT LOW PROBABILITY. OCCASIONAL URBAN
ISSUES AND LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS MAY OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AN EASTERN TROUGH INTO LATE-
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL NOTABLE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
UNCERTAINTY, ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED, ALONG WITH A COOLER TEMPERATURES. A HIGHER-
AMPLITUDE, MORE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS SCENARIO COULD BRING THE
HIGHEST IMPACTS VIA WINDS OR EVEN THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON VIA LAKE-ENHANCEMENT. THOUGH THERE ARE
STILL NUMEROUS, LOWER IMPACT SCENARIOS (INCLUDING A LOWER
AMPLITUDE OR MORE EASTERN TROUGH AXIS).
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 00Z, LIGHT RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS HAVE BEGUN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO INITALLY
CONTINUE BEFORE CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITY IN RAIN
OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06-09Z. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH MORE
FREQUENT BREAKS INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL EASE FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT IFR CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH A SURFACE
INVERSION.
LBE AND MGW ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE IFR
DURING THE DAY AS ENHANCED EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE
RIDGE-LINE MIX IN SOME DRY AIR. SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS GUSTS
WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 20KTS-30KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
LBE/MGW (UP TO 30KTS-40KTS). WIND WILL BEGIN TO EASE BETWEEN 18Z
AND 23Z. LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG 40-45KT
JET.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM,
SOUTHWEST FLOW DISSIPATING ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CIGS.
A COLD FRONT MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ073>076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ509>514.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/LUPO
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