297
FXUS61 KPBZ 181448
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING; WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
3) WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WEATHER FORECAST INDICATES GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HERE IS THE SUMMARY OF EXPECTED
IMPACTS:
TIMING: WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 12PM AND 6PM
LOWER ELEVATIONS: WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35-45MPH ARE ANTICIPATED,
SMALL BRANCHES AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE DISPLACED.
HIGHER TERRAIN: GUSTS BETWEEN 45-55MPH ARE LIKELY DUE TO
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY; A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM.
EXPECTED TREE BRANCHES AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY WITH A WEAK CROSSING
SHORTWAVE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF ONE INCH OF RAIN RANGE
FROM 60-70 PERCENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM OUTPUT. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTPUT INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THOUGH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT INTO A
CU LAYER FOR MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WIND ALOFT AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WSW WIND GUSTS FROM
35 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AT LBE. WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH AN
EXITING JET AND THE LOSS OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH PART OF SUNDAY, THOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/WM
AVIATION...WM
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