081
FXUS61 KPBZ 161736
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1236 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH SOME SNOW POTENTIALLY
RETURNING BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
AS STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER, HINDERING HEATING. SOME
EROSION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S.
THEREAFTER, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ADVANCE INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK IN DEAMPLIFYING FLOW, EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES
RETURN. THE WARMTH PEAKS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS NON-RIDGE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US-422 HAVE AT LEAST A 50 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF REACHING 60 DEGREES OR WARMER BOTH DAYS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROUGHING PATTERN RETURNING TO THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME MEMBER
DISAGREEMENT ON DEPTH AND TIMING, BUT MOST DO SHOW THE PRESENCE
OF A TROUGH TO SOME DEGREE. THIS POINTS TO A COOLDOWN, WITH THE
COLDEST (BELOW-NORMAL) TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE IS LIKELY TO CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCORDINGLY, RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AREAS NORTH OF I-80, CLOSEST TO SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE
AND LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS, HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THIS SETUP (50-65%
CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM). LESSER TOTALS SHOULD OCCUR TO THE
SOUTH.
ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES IS NOTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER FLOW-EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THEN, THE STRONGER TROUGH NOTED IN KEY
MESSAGE 1 ARRIVES, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC REGION. RAIN IS
MOST LIKELY INITIALLY, BUT SNOW CHANCE LIKELY RETURN AS THE
COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) AREAWIDE FOG, BECOMING LESS DENSE, SLOWLY MIXES OUT AND LIFTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
2) GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO VIS AND CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE DEGREE OF IMPROVEMENTS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT WAS AREA-WIDE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT SLOWLY HERE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS HAS SEEN MUCH QUICKER IMPROVEMENTS THAN
CIGS SO FAR AS MOST PORTS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1KFT. VIS IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE COMING HOURS GENERALLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS FOG MIXES OUT OF THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WIND. CIG IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE GRADUAL AND
WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR VFR SOUTH OF
PIT NOW LOOKS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR CLEARING ADVANCES.
CLEARING IS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ERIE LAKESHORE AND
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WV MOUNTAINS. BOTH MGW/ZZV FEATURE THE LOWEST
PROBABILITIES OF IFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BOTH BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 50%, BUT WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS THESE PORTS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO SCATTER OUT AND HEAD BACK TO VFR. FOR THE REST OF OUR
PORTS IT LOOKS LIKE LOW END MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING
HOURS POSSIBLY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ENVELOP
THE REGION AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
RIGHT NOW FOG CHANCES SEEM HIGHEST AGAIN ACROSS MGW/ZZV, THE PORTS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING. MOST OTHER PORTS AT
THIS TIME SEEM TO FAVOR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT BUT WITH HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, THERE REMAINS A THREAT
OF FOG FOR MANY PORTS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY SSWERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... THE PERSISTENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND COLD/WET GROUND WILL FAVOR AT LEAST NIGHTTIME FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RETURN RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...AK
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