265
FXUS61 KPBZ 031724
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY
2) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION. THE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY,
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. ML CAPE IS PROGGED TO REACH
AROUND 1,000 J/KG ACROSS OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WITH
30-35KT FROM 0-6KM. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OHIO, BEFORE A GENERAL DECREASING
TREND OCCURS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
GRADUALLY WANES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW, WITH THE FLOW ALOFT NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WIND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME THERE IS AN 80-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH
PROBABILITIES AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR AN INCH OF RAIN NORTH OF
PIT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY, AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY
DRIVE THE FRONT OUT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER A WARM START TO THE WEEK, COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LARGELY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOW WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SCATTERED STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 5-7KFT IS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.
MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SWERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS AND CLOUDS TAPER AFTER SUNSET TONGIHT.
VFR BKN DECKS CAN REENTER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH-RES MODELING SHOWS VERY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT AT THIS TIME POPS
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THESE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY/AK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page