346
FXUS61 KPBZ 261110
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
710 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY, QUIET, AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR FREEZE
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY LOW ACROSS THE REMAINING COUNTIES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. HOWEVER, WITH THE NOVEMBER
1ST CUTOFF APPROACHING, THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISSUING ADDITIONAL
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT IS CONSIDERED VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%).
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR.
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK EAST OR
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE
PROJECTED TRACK CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARYING COVERAGES OF
PASSING CIRRUS.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL VEER N TO NE
WITH A WEAK, DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AFT 00Z. HI-RES MODELING
SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY TO RESULT IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS NEAR THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10Z-13Z TUESDAY BUT AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS
PRECLUDED STRONGER TAF MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY (LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CIGS RETURN FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
STALLED BOUNDARY) AND MORE LIKELY CONTINUES UNTIL AN UPPER
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SOMETIME AFTER SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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