923
FXUS61 KPBZ 242343
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. CALM AND LARGELY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RISING HEIGHTS PROMOTE LARGELY DRY WEATHER WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT AT OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH POPS
RISING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH WILL DETERMINE OUR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS STORM
THREAT ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, MACHINE LEARNING MODELS
FAVORS A STEEPER SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO
THE CORE OF 30+ KTS OF SHEAR. DESPITE THIS, CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR
20-30 KTS STILL POINT TO A LOCALLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO SEVERE
THREAT, FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS.
ENSEMBLES PROG A DECENTLY QUICK TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS LIKELY KICKS OFF ANOTHER FEW DRY
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
IN THE LONG TERM, ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD FAVOR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF STORMS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THIS PATTERN POINTS TO SOME
SUBTLE TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD THAT
AFFECT THE WEEKEND BUT STILL TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL (AND
POSSIBLY STORMY) PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY LINGER PAST THE NORMAL DIURNAL DECREASE
OF CUMULUS, WITH ONGOING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING AT FKL/DUJ IN CONTINUED FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR RIVERS. HLG AND ZZV ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THIS FOG AND HAVE IFR VISIBILITY MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. FKL AND
DUJ MAY FOG AS WELL, DEPENDING ON IF ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS CAN
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY LIFT PAST SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND UP TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND RETURNING AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...CL/LUPO
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