658  
FXUS61 KPBZ 260551  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1251 AM EST MON FEB 26 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A DRY DAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES  
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A  
STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS AND STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
_______________________________________________________________  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IS DRY AS DENOTED BY THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING  
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. RADAR RETURNS  
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE AT THE SURFACE WITH  
ONLY A COUPLE OF SITES REPORTING SPRINKLES. ADDED IN THE MENTION  
OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES UP NORTH AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL THE TROUGH EXITS SHORTLY BEFORE  
DAWN.  
 
MINOR HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL  
KEEP THE AREA DRY. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BE INTERRUPTED  
BY PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WILL ENSUE THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS VEERS TO  
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUN,  
WILL PUSH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- RAIN CHANCE RETURN TUESDAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST  
FLOW.  
- A STRONG FRONT IS LIKELY TO CROSS ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH EXACT  
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.  
- MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN LIKELY  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WIND  
GUSTS, AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
______________________________________________________________  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND REACH UPSTATE NY  
ON TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE  
REGION LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DEEP  
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH  
QUICKLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TUESDAY, BUT  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. NBM PROBS OF >0.25 INCHES ARE  
AROUND 60-70% AND THAT IS OVER THE ENTIRE DAY.  
 
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CROSSING LOW-LEVEL  
JET WILL WORK TO STRENGTHEN WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
THE MAIN QUESTION WEDNESDAY IS THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF A  
500MB TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE  
WEDNESDAY. AND THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT  
WHICH ALSO SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF A FASTER  
CROSSING OF BOTH THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS. THIS TIMING  
WOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO  
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
REGARDLESS OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL  
APPEAR LIKELY. THE LOW TRACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A  
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH ARE FAVORABLE PATTERN MARKERS,  
AND A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WIND ALOFT. AGAIN, DETAILS  
WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF THE THREAT, BUT FOR THE  
24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 1 AM THURSDAY, THE NBM IS SHOWING  
50-80 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH OVER  
A DECENT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SOAKING RAIN DURING THE TUESDAY  
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD THANKS TO DEEP, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF  
THE SYSTEM PROVIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN  
0.50 INCH OF RAIN DURING THAT 24-HOUR PERIOD ARE IN THE 60 TO 90  
PERCENT RANGE, WITH 35-60 PERCENT CHANCES OF EXCEEDING AN INCH.  
HOWEVER, THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD HIGH  
WATER CONCERNS.  
 
IF THE FRONT DOES CROSS THE REGION AT A FASTER PACE, RAPID  
TEMPERATURES FALLS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED, ITS IS  
LIKELY WE DO SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A BRIEF RETURN OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT, WITH ANOTHER  
WARMUP BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
_______________________________________________________________  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, A BRIEF RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. MODEL BLENDS THEN INDICATE  
THAT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR THE FRIDAY TO  
SUNDAY PERIOD IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. STILL, THERE IS SOME  
QUESTION ABOUT THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT  
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HOPEFULLY RESOLVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA  
WILL RESULT IN LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z, AFTER  
WHICH THE JET DEPARTS AND LLWS PROMPTLY SUBSIDES. THIS IS THE  
ONLY NOTABLE IMPACT IN THE CURRENT 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE GRAZES THE AREA THIS MORNING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME  
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80, BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND  
LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH SO MINIMAL IMPACT ASIDE FROM SOME  
VFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, VFR  
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED PRECIP  
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID-  
WEEK. PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THESE WINDS MAY OCCUR AS A  
RESULT OF BOTH NON-CONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF AND  
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WITHIN A  
LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WINDS RELAX THURSDAY  
NIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...22/CL  
NEAR TERM...22  
SHORT TERM...22/CL  
LONG TERM...22/CL  
AVIATION...CERMAK  
 
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