848
FXUS61 KPBZ 032311
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
711 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST AND KEY
MESSAGES REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
2) ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK;
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH NW FLOW. WARM
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSED SE CONUS LOW IS PROGGED
TO PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (PEAKING DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HEATING) CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A RELATIVELY UNCHANGING ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
SBCAPE, ~600 J/KG DCAPE, AND PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES. THESE
INGREDIENTS COULD END UP SUPPORTING A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE
HAZARDS, BUT AS OF NOW THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OUR LOSS OF HEATING HAS BEEN FELT IN THE LOSS OF CU, YIELDING
LARGELY SKC CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING GROUND MOISTURE HIGH ALL POINT
TOWARDS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THIS FOR THE I-80 PORTS FKL/DUJ
(WHERE TEMPOS REMAIN) BUT ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO PIT/AGC/LBE. CONFIDENCE IN THESE IMPACTS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD CONTINUES VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. A 4-6KFT VFR FEW TO SCT CU
FIELD LOOKS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR
RESTRICTIONS. DAILY RESTRICTION AND THUNDER CHANCES LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM
AVIATION...AK
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