069  
FXUS61 KPBZ 130125 AAA  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
925 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DAILY  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT  
 
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF DUJ, TO  
BTP, TO NORTH OF PHD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH  
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CAPPING  
ALOFT AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT  
PRECLUDED ANY PRECIP FROM DEVELOPING THIS EVENING, AND THIS  
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP AT AROUND 800MB. DRY AIR WAS  
ALSO OBSERVED THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN, WITH HIGH LEVEL  
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH THE CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY.  
- TEMPERATURES DIPPING CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL HUMID WITH  
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY AND WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED AND WIGGLING OVER OUR AREA. A RENEWED PUSH  
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL PUMP PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5". THE  
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND LEAVE OUR AREA IN THE  
OPEN WARM, MOIST SECTOR. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT NOTABLE  
DESTABILIZATION, BUT SKINNY MUCAPE AROUND THE 400-800 J/KG  
RANGE COUPLED WITH WEAK FLOW AND PWATS PUSHING THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY WILL POINT TOWARD A LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY  
BE AROUND IN THE MORNING WITH LOW PROBABILITY THUNDER, BUT MORE  
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER 12 OR 1PM  
WITH ACHIEVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. EXACT PLACEMENT OF  
INITIATION WILL BE TOUGH TO FORECAST, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT  
MAY BE TIED TO COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION. HREF  
PROBABILITY FOR >1"/HOUR RATES IN ANY GIVEN HOUR FROM 12PM-6PM  
IS UP TO 50%.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO FRIDAY THOUGH WITH A  
POTENTIALLY HIGHER HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. PWAT VALUES RISE A BIT  
MORE WITH HIGH PROBABILITY FOR >1.5" AND 40-60% CHANCE OF >1.75". IN  
TURN, DCAPE VALUES WILL BE LOWER GIVEN A MORE MOIST COLUMN, SO THE  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOWER. STILL, A 50-80% CHANCE OF >500  
J/KG OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, AND CONTINUED WEAK DEEP  
LAYER FLOW WILL PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE SLOW MOVING  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY TO PRIME  
THE GROUND FOR THE NEXT ROUND ON SATURDAY, WPC HAS KEPT THE  
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
 
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL  
REMAIN QUITE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LITTLE  
RELIEF AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  
- TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
BY SUNDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE  
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE EAST BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL  
CONTINUE AS IT SLIDES BY. LATEST CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE  
TRENDED DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE UPPER WAVE  
PROGRESSION, AND IN THIS SCENARIO, SUNDAY MAY SEE CONTINUED  
FLOODING AND LOW SEVERE THREATS. IF A FASTER SCENARIO (LOWER  
PROBABILITY) TAKES HOLD, BOTH OF THOSE THREATS WOULD LOWER AND  
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COOLER.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO RISE AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND  
EVENTUALLY END UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL, BUT DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE  
WITH PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. UNCERTAINTY GROWS BY MID-WEEK  
WITH SPREAD IN MAXTS AROUND 5-8 DEGREES. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN  
ACTIVE WITH MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARD LOW END SEVERE  
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS WITH  
ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SMOKE EXPECTED. LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WIND EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.  
 
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER 17Z  
FRIDAY WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE AND WILL CONTINUE  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.  
 
ISOLATED STORMS MAY HAVE A DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 17Z TO 21Z  
AND CREATE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THAT CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED,  
CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC TERMINAL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW, SO VCTS AND  
PROB30S ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REPRESENT THE UNCERTAINTY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING  
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS  
OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MLB  
NEAR TERM...WM  
SHORT TERM...MLB  
LONG TERM...MLB  
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/LUPO  
 
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