790
FXUS61 KPBZ 282310
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
710 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT RISK LIKELY
2) RIDGE PLACEMENT IS IMPORTANT TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND KICKS
OFF A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN A
SLOW MARCH EASTWARD TODAY. HEIGHTS RISE LOCALLY BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
CONTINUES OUR DRY WEATHER AND KICKS OFF A WARMING TREND THAT
SEES TEMPERATURES RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. OUR PROXIMITY TO THIS RIDGE
WILL HELP PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK TOWARDS AND INTO THE LOW 90S.
THIS BRINGS WITH IT A LIKELY MODERATE AND POSSIBLE MAJOR HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION PEAKING ON TUESDAY. HEAT RISK WILL BE
HIGHEST IN URBAN CENTERS AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME BY MIDWEEK AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ROUND AND FLATTEN THE TOP OF IT. MOST ENSEMBLES
AGREE ON A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF LOCAL HEIGHTS BY MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, TRIMMING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RISK BACK
WITH IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES BY
NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER ON THEIR TIMING AND PRESENTATION OF THE
THREAT. THE PLACEMENT OF OUR EARLY WEEK UPPER RIDGE IS VERY
IMPORTANT IN BOTH THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK, THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH OR
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND FLATTEN THE
RIDGE IN THE EAST. THE FAVORED STORM TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IF THE RIDGE STALLS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES PLUMMET AS THE
FAVORED STORM TRACK SETS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IF THE RIDGE STALLS A LITTLE TO OUR WEST THEN THIS
FAVORED STORM TRACK SETTLES OVERHEAD BRINGING ROUNDS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE HEART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING INDICATES SOME KIND OF BROAD SEVERE RISK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY
BUT THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON OUR
IMPENDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY WHERE THE
RIDGE SETS UP.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN
DURING PRE- DAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE ARE ONLY AROUND 20%
IN BOTH THE NBM AND HREF FOR MOST SITES. FKL AND DUJ MAY BE
ANOTHER STORY AS A BRIEF OB UNDER A MILE IS POSSIBLE. IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP, IT'LL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN AND
AROUND RIVER VALLEYS.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG/STRATUS, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page