270
FXUS61 KPBZ 030541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALMOST THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
2) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
3) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA ALONG THE LAKE SHORE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER RATHER WELL
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO DAWN. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEPLETED.
STILL THE HI-RES CAMS SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION COMING
ASHORE OVER CLE'S AREA AND ALSO AN OUTFLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND
CAUSED ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THAT. THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES NOW ARE BASICALLY UNDER A THREAT OF FLOODING
SHOULD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
THOUGH BEYOND THE WATCH TIME FRAME, HI-RES MODELS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY ATTACHED TO THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY STORM CLUSTER
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MI (SIGNS OF THIS OCCURRING IS ONGOING)
AND DROPPING TOWARDS NORTHWEST PA BETWEEN 5AM-10AM. EVEN WITH A
STABLE LAYER, ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DCAPE MAY BE
PRESENT TO OVERCOME THAT DETERRENT FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG 594 DAM RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
LOCALLY, WE'RE PARKED BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST MID- LEVEL FLOW,
AND SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH MESOSCALE SURFACE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DRIVER OF OUR THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE STORM COMPLEX PROGRESSION DECREASES WITH
TIME IN THIS SETUP AS IT'S HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON POORLY MODELED
PRECEDING ROUNDS, BUT THURSDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE TO SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST WHICH WILL REORIENT
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY SUCH THAT WE'RE BETTER IN
THE PATH OF IMPULSES AND RESULTANT MCSS. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WE
GET THE MOST COVERAGE. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORNING
CONVECTION AGAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHERS DON'T
AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE LATTER CASE WOULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD, SEVERE STORMS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A 70+% PROBABILITY OF 1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KNOTS OF
SHEAR. IF STORMS DO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING, THEY WILL CARRY
A SEVERE RISK WITH THEM AS WELL, THERE WILL JUST BE MORE
QUESTION ABOUT THREATS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY'RE SURFACE-
BASED. THEN THE WATERS WILL BECOME MUDDIER FOR THE AFTERNOON, SO
WE JUST HAVE TO TAKE THIS SETUP 12-24 HOURS AT A TIME.
COME FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT THAT'S BEEN MEANDERING WELL OFF TO OUR
NORTH FINALLY GETS A PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH AND WILL PUT AN END TO THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A CESSATION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. IT'LL BE VERY TIMING DEPENDENT, BUT THERE IS A SCENARIO IN
WHICH MOST OF OUR ACTIVITY IS DONE BY MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERS SUGGEST
IT LINGERS A BIT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY HAS APPROPRIATELY BEEN PULLED
SOUTH AND ONLY LEFT OUR AREA SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH IN A MARGINAL RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ASIDE FROM THE STORMS, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN IN THE MAJOR
CATEGORY WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME IN THE VALLEYS AND URBAN AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW 70S. THUS, THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HAVE SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
REACHED WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY IF CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD
IN COVERAGE, BUT WITH HOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY THERE IS, WILL LET
THE HEADLINES RIDE AS IS AS AREAS WITHOUT CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION WILL HEAT UP EFFICIENTLY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS TO THE TERMINALS AND WILL MAINLY BE
BASED ON WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HIT THE TERMINALS. THUS, DID USE
SOME PROB30S AT THE TAF SITES. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY MISS
OUT COMPLETELY ON THE RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ZZV AND MGW. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE COMING DAY, THERE
STANDS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS HAVE ADDED A SECOND GROUP OF PROB30S FOR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN THE 02Z TO 06Z PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-021-029-
031-073-075.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039-040-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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