317
FXUS61 KPBZ 061832
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
132 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WINTER WEATHER
AND WIND HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE RIDGES OF PA AND WV,
AND COLD WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SQUALL THREAT THIS EVENING.
2) DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES THIS WEEKEND.
3) POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK BRINGS FLOODING CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONUS. WHILE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING STARTED AS A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW, MOISTURE
PROFILES HAVE SINCE BECOME MORE SATURATED INTO THE DGZ LEADING
TO PTYPE TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER, FLUFFY SNOW.
LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN OH
AND SOUTHERN MI CONFIRM THAT THE LULL IN SNOW THAT WAS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ON TRACK TO OCCUR.
THEREFORE, EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO REDUCE TO FLURRIES OR
STOP COMPLETELY GENERALLY IN THE 4-7PM TIMEFRAME BEFORE
SCATTERED SNOW BANDS/SQUALLS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RATES DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
QUICK COATING TO POSSIBLY AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THOSE EVENING SHOWERS.
REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO
REMAIN ON TRACK AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HELD REMARKABLY STABLE
FOR TOTALS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN HIGHER ACROSS THE PA/WV RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPING IS
ENCOURAGING HIGHER RATES AND MORE STEADY SNOW THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GENERALLY 2-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PA RIDGES,
LOCALLY NEAR 6 INCHES ON THE PEAKS. MEANWHILE FOR THE WV RIDGES
HIGHER TOTALS TO 5-8 INCHES IS FORECAST AND LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
SEE NEAR 9 INCHES. WHILE ALL LOWLAND AREAS REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WV RIDGES AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE PA RIDGES. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE A
HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE TO NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. WITH PREVAILING WIND GUSTS OF
25-30MPH NEAR THE SURFACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO WELL
BELOW ZERO. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10
OR COLDER, WITH -20 TO -25 POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS BEGINNING TONIGHT, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY'S VERY COLD FORECASTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK
DAILY RECORDS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES. FOR EXAMPLE, ZANESVILLE
IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO TOP OUT AT 16F (RECORD COLDEST IS
17F FROM 2014), AND WHEELING IS FORECAST AT 14F (THE RECORD
COLDEST IS 17F FROM 2007).
KEY MESSAGE 3....
A VERY WELCOME SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK,
FINALLY RETURNING ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS MAY
COME AT A COST, AS IT ALSO INTRODUCES A POTENTIAL FLOODING RISK.
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL HELP MELT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH CURRENTLY HOLDS A LIQUID EQUIVALENT RANGING FROM AROUND
1.4" AROUND THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO 2.3" FOR AREAS NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. IF TEMPERATURES END UP TRENDING ON THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE (E.G. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY IS NEAR 50 DEGREES
IN PITTSBURGH), A MORE RAPID MELT OF THIS SNOWPACK COULD OCCUR
AND AFFECT LOCAL MAINSTEM RIVER LEVELS, WHICH REMAIN ICE
COVERED AT A DEPTH OF 3 TO 8 INCHES THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD
SNAP. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARMER
WEATHER AND FURTHER EXACERBATE CONDITIONS, LEADING TO THE RISK
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH 00Z.
2) BRIEF, HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FROM 01Z TO 04Z.
3) SCATTERING POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
------------------------------------------------------------
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
THROUGH THE AREA, CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS GENERALLY
MAINTAINED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MOSTLY IFR VIS. STEADY
LIGHT SNOW IS FAVORED TO DEPART IN THE 18Z TO 20Z WINDOW AS MORE
DRY AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF GENERALIZED ASCENT. MAINTAINED SOME
TEMPO MVFR VIS SNOW WITH EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION IN SHALLOW
MOISTURE IRRESPECTIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR WITH >75% CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE EVENING.
AREAL SEPARATION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIVING THE DAYTIME SNOW
AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FAVORS A PERIOD OF SUBDUED
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z (VARYING NW TO SE). THEN, THE
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PROVIDES ANOTHER SHOT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL SHOWERS BTWN 01Z-04Z WITH RATES THAT COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH
1"/HR ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO
1/4MILE IN THE HIGH-END SCENARIO OF THESE SHOWERS. THIS MENTION WAS
EXPANDED AT THE 18Z UPDATE TO MOST PORTS SAVE DUJ AND FKL WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRESENCE OF BRIEF, HEAVY SNOW.
COLD, DRY ADVECTION IN NW FLOW IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
GENERALLY WOULD LEND TO WIDESPREAD MVFR INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BUT WITH LAKE ERIE GENERALLY FROZEN, LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
MAY CREATE PERIODS OF SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR A LAKE HURON LAKE EFFECT FETCH TO SIT AROUND DUJ
AFTER 06Z, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS POINT.
INTO SATURDAY, CLOUD MAY FILL IN MORE WITH MIXING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A BROKEN MVFR DECK MOST LIKELY FOR NOW. GUSTY WINDS
ALSO REMAIN LIKELY WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT TO 25KT TO 35KTS AT TIMES,
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK... A LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR A MID-LEVEL JET INDUCING A
NARROW BAND OF SNOW SUNDAY THAT RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL FAVOR VFR UNTIL A MID-
WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ013-020-021-029-031-073-075.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR PAZ007>009-014>016-022-074-076>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-076-
078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-513.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR WVZ512-514.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ512>514.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/RACKLEY
AVIATION...FRAZIER/MILCAREK
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