860
FXUS61 KPBZ 080637
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
137 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRY WEATHER RETURNS. RETAINED KEY MESSAGE ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A RUN OF DRY WEATHER AND ANOTHER UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK (DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE
APPROACHING RECORDS BY TUE/WED), OUR NEXT RAIN/STORM CHANCE
WILL COME BY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL ENSEMBLE INDICATIONS
THAT NORTHERN- STREAM AND SOUTHERN- STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY
PHASE AS THEY CROSS THE PLAINS, CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND RESULT IN A STRONG, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP WITH WARM, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING BY MIDWEEK. THIS
PATTERN DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE SEVERE WEATHER, AND
BOTH EXTENDED MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE AND SPC ARE ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY ANALOGS. THIS WILL, OF
COURSE, BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RADAR SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, HAVE REDUCED SHOWER MENTION TO PROB30 AT ALL
TERMINALS, GENERALLY THROUGH 9-10Z. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
TO NEAR 20KTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO WORK IN IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WITH GUSTS TO
15-20 KNOTS. THE MVFR DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE INTO LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PROBABILITIES FOR <3 KFT CIGS
DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY VFR.
VFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR AND QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL CLIMATE SITES BROKE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON MARCH 7TH.
SEE THE RECORD EVENT REPORTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/CL/88
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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