285
FXUS61 KPBZ 272353
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
753 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS COULD RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
(20-40%) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT;
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
2) A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES RETURN
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PASSING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH DRY AIR NOTED ALOFT ON SATELLITE, SOME
UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 20-24KFT LAYER, WHERE THE THETA-E
MINIMUMS COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOLER, STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. HOWEVER, ANY STORM ABLE TO REACH THESE HEIGHTS COULD
BRIEFLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3PM AND 8PM EAST
OF PITTSBURGH. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW.
STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 9PM AND 11PM TONIGHT, THOUGH
LINGERING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
QUIET AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND PROMOTES STRENGTHENING RIDGE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER-80S AND NEAR 90 DEGREES BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY
HEAT PRODUCTS IS CONSIDERED LOW.
THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL BE A KEY
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION NEXT WEEK. MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PROBABILITIES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 5-15%, WITH A MORE NOTABLE
INCREASE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 15-30%.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. ANY
STORM THAT GOES OVER A TERMINAL WILL DEFINITELY SEE A REDUCTION
IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 02Z.
OVERNIGHT, FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED WITH MOST TERMINALS
GETTING DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT THESE
RESTRICTIONS FROM 08Z THROUGH 13Z TOMORROW BEFORE CLEARING INTO
A FEW TO SCT CU LAYER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page