678  
FXUS61 KPBZ 110710  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
310 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A DRY AND WARM MOTHER'S DAY IS ON TAP WITH SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH  
CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLOW  
MOVING LOW PRESSURE HEADED UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY AND WARM MOTHER'S DAY WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL  
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UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING OVER LOUISIANA, WITH 500 MB  
RIDGE BUILDING AND HEIGHTS RISING 40 METERS OVER THE UPPER OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH OF ABOUT 1030 MB BUILDS INTO NEW  
YORK STATE, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA. 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BUMP UP A TAD TO +12C THIS AFTERNOON,  
RESULTING IN HIGHS APPROACHING 80F IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ZONES. DESPITE THIN HIGH CLOUDS, WILL TAKE SAME APPROACH AS  
YESTERDAY BY GOING WITH 10TH PERCENTILE NBM DEW POINTS AND GOING  
ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN NBM MEAN AND 90TH PERCENTILE MAXT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD  
- WARM MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL  
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DEEP TROUGH MOVING ONTO WEST COAST MONDAY SHOULD GIVE LOUISIANA  
LOW THE BOOT. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON,  
ALLOWING UPPER FLOW TO TURN TO DUE SOUTH AND 500 MB HEIGHT  
FALLS OF 30 TO 40 METERS TO SPREAD UP THE APPALACHIANS.  
 
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT  
DESTABILIZATION OVER SOUTH HALF TO SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SOUTH  
OF I-70, WITH THE WARMEST AND LIKELY DRIEST AREA BEING UP ALONG  
I-80.  
 
UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOW NORTHEAST DRIFT TUESDAY AND CROSSES  
MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A  
TROUGH ORIENTED NW TO SE AND REACHES THE OHIO AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENINGS. BECAUSE THERE WILL BE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
FLOW, THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE RIDGES, AND THERE  
IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DOWN IN THE TUCKER COUNTY  
WV AREA.  
 
72 HOUR PQPF 25TH PERCENTILES ARE 0.10-0.20" IN THE NW HALF,  
WITH 0.25-0.75" IN THE SE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. 75TH PERCENTILE  
IS 0.50-0.75" NW AND 1.00-2.00" OVER THE RIDGES WITH 2.00-2.50"  
OVER EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- RIDGING THURSDAY WILL REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
- THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
- TEMPERATURES 15-20F ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY THURSDAY/FRIDAY  
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UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF DEEP LOW OVER THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS FALL 40 TO 70 METERS  
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY, AND NBM SBCAPE  
VALUES THURSDAY EVENING AREA VERY UNSTABLE WITH VALUES AROUND  
3,000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN.  
 
BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STRONG WARM  
ADVECTION SPREADS UP THE OHIO RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY MORNING, LIKELY BRINGING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
AREA THAT WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
AND THAT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS SOUTH AND  
EAST OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, AS USUAL, TIMING OF FEATURES AND  
DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS FAR OUT ALWAYS PROVIDE A  
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY.  
 
SPC GEFS POST-PROCESSING VIA CSU MLP HAS DECENT PROBABILITY OF  
SEVERE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR  
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FLUCTUATIONS  
IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CREATE PERIODS OF  
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CIRRUS FAVORING NORTHERN WV.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CUTOFF  
UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE MVFR POTENTIAL (40-60% PROBABILITY)  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONSET OF INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY BE  
EARLIER WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS AND BE MORE OF A LIGHT  
RAIN/SPRINKLE INTENSITY.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW  
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER  
PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW FOR  
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CRAVEN  
NEAR TERM...CRAVEN  
SHORT TERM...CRAVEN  
LONG TERM...CRAVEN  
AVIATION...RACKLEY  
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