186
FXUS61 KPBZ 090558
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY, AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MORE NUMEROUS
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
3) MAINLY DRY AND WARM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING, WITH A PASSAGE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-70 IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. ML
CAPE IS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 750-1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING,
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT. THERE IS SOME DRYING ALOFT, THOUGH
DCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 350-500 J/KG. WHILE SOME
STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND IF THEY ARE ABLE TO TAP IN TO
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT, AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL. THE STORM PREDICATION CENTER HAS
ADDED A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I- 70 TO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TODAY, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST LEVELS ARE PROGGED SOUTH OF I-70.
STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TODAY, WITH STORM MOTION GENERALLY
AROUND 25KT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WHERE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND WHERE ANY TRAINING
WOULD OCCUR. THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-70. EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WANES, EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM
THE MIDWEST, CROSSING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, WITH SIMILAR PWATS. INCREASED FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM MOTION, THOUGH 0-6 KM
SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 25KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING WOULD OCCUR.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD VEER TO THE NW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT EXITS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS A STRONG RIDGE/HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR DUJ, WHERE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ADDITIONAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE
REGION. INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR MOST AIRPORTS NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH A TEMPO MENTION TO THE SOUTH WHERE MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH VFR TO FOLLOW.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER CROSSING DISTURBANCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR OR
SOUTH OF A ZZV-MGW CORRIDOR. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR
SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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