342
FXUS61 KPBZ 261748
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF EASTERN OHIO, NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DETAILS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED IN THE DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HEAT RISK AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU SAT.
AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST FAVORED
FOR HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, HOWEVER, IN
WHERE THIS FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED, WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A NWD POSITION FROM ZZV-MGW VICINITY.
WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN EXCEEDING 2.0" OVER THE NEXT 24H. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF ERN
OHIO, NRN WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR-SWRN PENNSYLVANIA THRU SAT
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WITH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AND SHUNTING HOT AIR INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
THRU THE WEEK, TEMPS WILL CLIMB STEADILY INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MAXT REACHING MID 90S.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND TWO KEY SCENARIOS:
1) HOTTER AND DRIER: TEMPS MAY REACH MID 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S, THUS REDUCING APPARENTT MODESTLY. IN
THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
2) LESS HOT AND STORMIER: TEMPS MAY REACH UPPER 80S, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, APPARENTT MAY BE
HIGHER AND POSE SOME HEAT IMPACT. BUT THE TEMP CEILING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS BUOYANCY WOULD
BE HIGH AND SHEAR WOULD BE WEAK.
SOME COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT OVER
THE WEEK LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING JULY 4, SO THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO MONITOR DAILY FORECASTS AS THE
WEEK GOES ON FOR LOCALIZED UPDATES ON STORM AND HEAT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOST TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE.
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN WITH THE
RAIN AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 60% OR GREATER CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MAINLY AFTER THE
21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO IFR OR LIFR WILL COINCIDE WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTANCES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ZZV-PIT-LBE LINE. WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER INSTANCES OF RAIN. DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY, LEADING
TO DRIER WEATHER AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-021-509-510.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR
AVIATION...CERMAK
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