081
FXUS61 KPBZ 011752
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
152 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FROST
POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK IS INCREASING A BIT, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS RETURN WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT, WITH NO NOTABLE
THREATS FOR HEAVY RAIN OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) COOLER AND MAINLY DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FROST IS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR MAXIMUMS.
ALSO TODAY, A CENTRAL PLANS CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO DEGRADE WITH
TIME, EVENTUALLY EJECTING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF IT
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH, WITH THE
MAIN PERIOD OF RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SOME
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, WHICH REPRESENTS TOP-END CLIMATOLOGY. EVEN SO, THE
OVERALL WEAK FORCING AND UNFAVORABLE FRONTAL TIMING WILL WORK
AGAINST A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 24-HOUR
RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.50 INCH ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR REGION, WITH ONLY A FEW BANDS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT
POTENTIAL. PLUS, WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD RANGE FROM 40 TO 50
KNOTS DURING FROPA, SBCAPE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AROUND 200
J/KG OR LESS. WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS IS PACKED CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE, WITH MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS WILL TOP
OUT BELOW -10C, LIMITING ANY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL. SO, IT IS
APPROPRIATE THAT THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY DOES NOT
EVEN INCLUDE OUR AREA IN A RISK FOR "GENERAL" THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST RAIN WILL END FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
FRONT, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE RIDGES SOUTHEAST
OF PITTSBURGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE NE CONUS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH ON SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WOULD
BE FOLLOWED BY AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE ANOTHER RUN
OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS TO THE NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, AS WELL AS
IN THE USUAL LAUREL HIGHLAND/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COLD SPOTS.
THE NBM PAINTS A 35 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES
COLDER THAN 37 DEGREES NORTH OF US-422 BOTH MORNINGS - WHICH
WOULD BE CHILLY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST GIVEN CLEAR AND
CALM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY ON
SHOULD BUILD BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS GENERALLY FROM KPIT
NORTHWARD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SSW AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 15KTS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S APPROACH TOWARD MORNING ON FRIDAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE TIMED BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
WITH LOW MVFR/IFR LIKELY WITH RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM ABOUT 12Z ONWARD. TRIED TO BE A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC AT SOME LOCATIONS, WITH USING PROB30 GROUPS TO
HIGHLIGHT IFR CONDITIONS BASED ON MODEL DATA AND CURRENT
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WORST CASE WOULD BE A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR VISIBILITY EMBEDDED
IN POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS IS NOT REFLECTED
IN THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE AS OF YET.
OUTLOOK...
BOUNDARY MAY STALL JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SOME POTENTIAL
RESTRICTIONS SAT AND SUN AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
VFR IS PROGGED OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...34
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