879
FXUS61 KPBZ 120123 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY SAVE LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN IN A PASSING FRONT LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A BRIEF
COOLDOWN IS FAVORED TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
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A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SE PA - NRN WV - SE OH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN AFTER FROPA, WITH MGW THE LAST TO SEE
THIS OCCUR. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE SEEN TO THE WEST ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, UNDER WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK
PASSING FRONT.
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THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLIGHTLY BACK NORTH
INTO WEDNESDAY, LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE HIGHEST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM NEW
PHILADELPHIA TO INDIANA, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF THIS
BOUNDARY IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF FORECAST, HIGHS MAY BE A BIT
COOLER FOR PITTSBURGH AND NORTH. IN THE SCENARIO WHERE IT PUSHED
NORTH OF I-80, TEMPERATURES MAY BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
FORECAST IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AREA-WIDE REGARDLESS.
THERE IS INCREASING, BUT STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF
A PASSING SHORTWAVE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, PUSHING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OR RAIN WILL SIT MOSTLY IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON (30%), AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (20%). OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE AND DRY INTO THURSDAY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS PREVAIL FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM FRIDAY.
- WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN MONDAY, WITH A WARMUP INTO MID-WEEK.
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FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES YET AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT FRIDAY
MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH MOST CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES UP TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT PASSING DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING REMAINS, SATURDAY
FOR THE WARM FRONT, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT,
WITH ENSEMBLE PLUMES FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON BUOYANCY, BUT UNSURE
ON JUST HOW MUCH. THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE QUITE VARIABLE,
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE. MARGINAL FLOODING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE).
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF PIT/AGC
AT 21Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FOR HLG, MGW, AND LBE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST/WEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SUFFICIENT DRY AIR ALOFT.
PATCHY STRATOCU AND SPEED SHEER INDUCED ALTO DECKS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR I-70.
GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/OVERRUNNING AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY MIDDAY WILL LEAD TO GREATER LIKELIHOOD
(40-70% PROBABILITY) OF MVFR CIGS AT FKL/DUJ, WITH MOST OTHER
TERMINALS EXPERIENCING NEAR TO SUB 5KFT CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
CLOUD AND CIG IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS POTENTIAL
THAT IT STALLS NEAR FKL/DUJ INTO THURSDAY AS FLOW REMAINS
EASTERLY AND REGENERATE LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH SURFACE WIND QUICKLY RETURNING
TO A PREDOMINANT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SW FLOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MILCAREK
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...MILCAREK
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/FRAZIER
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