094
FXUS61 KPBZ 091752
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND THAT
COULD CREATE FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT;
EXPECT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE EVENING
2) LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE RETURNS PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND; MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE
RIDGES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE RECENT COLD AND CALM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
TO--OR EVEN ABOVE--NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DRAWS WARM, STEADY BREEZE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2PM AND
5PM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND TEMPERATURES DROP TUESDAY
NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD STAY LOW--ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO
0.20 INCHES. WITH RISING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH, SNOW WILL LIKELY START TO MELT. SINCE THE SNOWPACK
IS SITTING AT A FRIGID 0F TO 23F, IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LOT MORE
THAN A MILD AFTERNOON TO MELT IT ALL.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT ANY SNOW THAT MELTS ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY REFREEZE ON THE ROADS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIVERS
SHOULD WATCH OUT FOR ICY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING.
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL, GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO AN INCH. THE HIGHEST TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONCENTRATED IN THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES WITH UPSLOPING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND TRACKING TOWARD
OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FREEZING RAIN, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE EASTERN
RIDGES. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) DATA CURRENTLY PLACES
THE PROBABILITY OF ICY IMPACTS AT 15-20%, WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE WINTER HEADLINES.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
2) INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW, MVFR RESTRICTIONS, AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
------------------------------------------------------------
AREAWIDE VFR IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES AND MVFR CEILINGS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM.
GENERAL VFR IS THEN FAVORED LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK
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