731
FXUS61 KPBZ 090005
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
805 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW-PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OH THIS EVENING
2) INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING MID-WEEK
STARTING IN OHIO WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS ON TUESDAY.
3) HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW, A COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY (1500-2000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE), WEAK SHEAR,
AND A SIGNIFICANT 500HPA DRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE, WARM MID-LEVELS
WILL SHOULD INHIBIT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES BEGIN ON
TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF
A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE A RANGE OF HAZARDS, INCLUDING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS INCREASING IN AREA WITHIN A
COUNTY OR SO OF ZANESVILLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RICH POOL
OF 2.0" TO 2.2" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA FROM IL INTO KY, AND VALUES OF 1.8-2.0" ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE OHIO PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 68-72F TDS. THESE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WOULD BE NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES. ALONG WITH 20-25
KNOT SW FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER, MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES WILL
BE DECENT. CORFIDI VECTORS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS, INDICATING
STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING ECHOES.
HREF SHOWS 30-60% CHANCE OF 2" OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS IN FAR
WESTERN 5 COUNTIES IN OHIO, WITH 20-30% CHANCE OF LOCALLY 4"+.
SITUATIONS LIKE THESE GENERAL FEATURE VERY SMALL AREAS THAT GET
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND ARE HISTORICALLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH YET BUT WILL INCREASE MESSAGING OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
ML GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-45% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARM MINIMUMS. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS DURING PROLONGED PERIODS
OF HEAT. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE A 70%+ CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE HEAT
RISK OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HAVE WEAKENED AND BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STRONG INFLUX OF
MOISTURE LOWERS CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE
INTRODUCING LOW PROBABILITY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE A GLANCING SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH FROM 06Z-15Z TUESDAY, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE WILL BE NEAR ZZV WHERE TIMING IS BEST GUESS BUT COULD
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.
THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTS IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER
18Z TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN IFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES.
OUTLOOK...
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH INTERMITTENT PASSING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM WHILE EXCESSIVE
RAIN COULD CREATE CIG/VIS IMPACTS EVEN DURING NON-RAIN PERIODS,
LIKELY AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...CL/FRAZIER
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