707
FXUS61 KPBZ 120545
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
145 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FOG SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS MORNING, THEN MAINLY
DRY WEATHER TODAY
2) DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
FOG AND STRATUS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF A
ZZV-MGW LINE) AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH BRIEFLY DRIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. INCREASING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH RIDING 500 MB
HEIGHTS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 594 DM. HIGHS BY THEN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
IN THE MID 90S.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK,
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH POSSIBLE CROSSING
SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AIRPORTS NORTH OF A ZZV-HLG-LBE LINE,
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY ADVECTION BUILD IN BEHIND AN EXITING
COLD FRONT. AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ZZV-HLG-LBE LINE, WHERE DRY ADVECTION IS
WEAKER, RESULTING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND MIXING BEGINS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, DECREASING
FROM N-S. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE CU RULE INDICATE A SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS LAYER SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP. WIND SHOULD BE
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 KT.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED EARLY MORNING FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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