513  
FXUS61 KPBZ 161539  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1139 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80).  
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER  
THE APPALACHIANS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST  
OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING TO OUR  
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE BY 10 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION  
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH  
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
GIVEN LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND  
ABOVE FREEZING SOIL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SNOW ACCUMULATION  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, GIVEN TEMPERATURE  
PROFILES, HAVE INCLUDED A CHC/SCHC MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF MERCER, VENANGO, FOREST, CLARION, AND JEFFERSON  
COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW  
FLAKES TO MIX IN.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL  
AVERAGES WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. DESPITE CLEARING  
SKIES, THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS  
THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
WARMER... THOUGH STILL BELOW-NORMAL... TEMPERATURES RETURN  
FRIDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER,  
THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PERSISTENT REX BLOCK IN THE  
WRN CONUS SUPPORTS COLD AIR DIVING INTO THE ERN CONUS AND AN  
EVENTUAL BROAD TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS  
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
OFFERS YET ANOTHER GLOOMY DAY OF CLOUDS AND COLD RAIN. RAIN  
CHANCES WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY, BUT LAKE-DRIVEN STRATOCU WILL  
PERSIST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST PORTS WILL SEE HIGH CIRRUS  
CLOUDS TODAY. EARLY IN THE FORECAST, FKL AND DUJ WILL SEE LOWER  
CLOUD MOVING OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.  
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CAT, HOWEVER A  
TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO  
20 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS WITH A WED COLD FRONT. MORE  
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A FRI NIGHT/SAT COLD  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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