077
FXUS61 KPBZ 221103
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE;
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
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NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL DRIFT OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE DISTRICT AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE WILL
STILL SEE PLENTY OF THE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EASTWARD. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THIS COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE/ONLY
SOME PASSING CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST STATES, AND A DRY SURFACE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. HAVE NUDGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH
HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
- ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
THURSDAY.
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A SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, CROSSING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. DISPLACEMENT
OF THE MOISTURE/JET NORTHWARD SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
INCREASED CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WHILE GREATLY MINIMIZING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE, BOTH ARE
STILL LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MINIMAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS LIKELY TO END. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT
- LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND
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LARGE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY CONTINUES THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE GRAND ENSEMBLES, 45% TO 60% OF THE
VARIABILITY IS DEPENDING ON THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE WAVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SATURDAY COULD TREND NEAR SEASONABLE IN A
TROUGHING PATTERN AND LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP MAY FOLLOW. HOWEVER,
IF THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN INTO THE
MID AND/OR LOW-70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE MIDWEST STATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TONIGHT, PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z, FOR SITES FROM
PIT AND WEST AS A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER RELAXES THE
SURFACE WIND WHILE A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR EAST THE CORE OF THE JET
PROGRESSES, AND THUS IF LLWS CRITERIA IS MET, WILL HOLD OUT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE UNTIL THE LATEST MODEL DATA
ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING, BUT PROBABILITY IS HIGHEST FOR ZZV
AND FKL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIXING DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS
TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK
PERSISTENCE OF VFR FAVORED THROUGH A LARGE PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
UNTIL A CROSSING COLD FRONT USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW
PROBABILITY RESTRICTIONS (20-30% PROBABILITY MAINLY AROUND
FKL/DUJ).
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN/22
NEAR TERM...22/MLB
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN/22/FRAZIER
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB
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