727
FXUS61 KPBZ 082255
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RANGE NARROWING OF RAINFALL TOTALS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUST POTENTIAL IS DISCUSSED BELOW IN RELATION TO HURRICANE
ISAIAS REMNANTS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FAVORED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
GUSTIER WIND BUT LIMITED HAZARDOUS RISKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THAT PEAKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
RAIN MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BUT THE BULK OF HURRICANE ISAIAS'S
REMNANTS ARRIVE SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL WHILE WORKING
GENERALLY NNE UNDERNEATH THE PREVAILING RIDGE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES NORTHERN WV/SOUTHEASTERN OH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM, MOIST AIR (HIGHLIGHTED BY
90TH-95TH PERCENTILE PWATS) AND RESIDUAL TROUGH DYNAMICS FAVORS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, ALL-DAY RAIN THAT SEES NARROW ENHANCEMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A QUICK
EXIT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THAT SEES LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES
COMING TO A STOP MONDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS'S REMNANTS
STRONGLY FAVORS A MINIMIZATION OF INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 100
J/KG SBCAPE) THAT ENSURES SEVERE HAZARDS ARE NOT EXISTENT.
IMPACT FOCUS THEN IS ON RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS AND
SYNOPTIC WIND GUST POTENTIAL. FOR FLOOD CONCERNS, ENSEMBLES
STILL SUGGEST SCENARIOS WHERE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS ENTER
THE 2-3" RANGE (VERSUS MORE CONSENSUS 1-1.5") THAT COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE OR FLOOD
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS; SPECIFICALLY, THE INCREASE OF FALLING LEAF
DEBRIS IN STORM DRAINS COULD LIMIT EFFECTIVENESS OF PLANNED
MITIGATION EFFORTS AND AID IN THE CREATION OF ROADWAY PONDING.
THE PROLONGED DRIER STRETCH AND LACK IN STRONGER BUOYANCY,
HOWEVER, SHOULD KEEP RATES LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP RISKS LOW. FOR
WIND CONCERNS, PENDING 850MB/700MB DEPTH/POSITIONING, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET THAT CREATES A
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT EAST OF PITTSBURGH. GUSTS AREAWIDE BETWEEN
15-30MPH WILL BE COMMON BUT INITIAL ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS A 10%
PROBABILITY FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS SOMETIME SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
TUCKER COUNTY AS WELL AS NEAR LATROBE. MONITORING OF THESE
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY WHEN HIGHER-RESOLUTION
MODELING STARTS REACHING THESE FORECAST HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAY SEE SOME MORE RIVER STEAM FOG DEVELOP.
THAT SAID, EVEN NUDGING HREF AND REFS VISIBILITY DOWN TO THE
10TH PERCENTILE DOESN'T SHOW A WHOLE LOT. SO, HAVE LEFT OUT
INCLUSION OF FOG AT ALL SITES FOR NOW, BUT FKL WOULD BE THE
LIKELY SITE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE NIGHT. PAST SUNRISE
FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL INTRUSION OF HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WIND WILL BE LESS
GUSTY TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES OVER
THE REGION AND REMAIN WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
AFTER ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF MORNING VALLEY FOG, VFR IS
FAVORED THROUGH SATURDAY. RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARRIVE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
MAY BECOME A CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS WELL. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR MONDAY MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE RESTRICTIONS FROM THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...MLB/CL
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