282
FXUS61 KPBZ 080620
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
220 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORNING FOG, THEN MAINLY DRY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TODAY
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM ARMSTRONG TO FOREST COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY END WITH WANING INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT
MOST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY UNDER FLAT
RIDGING AND CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A
WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO BE LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS,
RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES EAST OF PITTSBURGH, THOUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. EXPECT ANY FLOOD POTENTIAL TO BE VERY LOW
AND LOCALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT, APPROACHING AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED. THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS PROGGED. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT, WITH ML CAPE
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG NORTH OF I-80, TO AROUND 1200 J/KG
SOUTH OF I-70. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY PASSAGE.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH EXISTING CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY, THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF RAIN RANGE FROM 35 TO NEAR 50
PERCENT.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
SOUTH OF PIT. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR FOR MOST SITES BY EARLY
MORNING AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE. THE CU RULE AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BROKEN CUMULUS LAYER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY, THOUGH CIGS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF PIT THIS AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED A PROB 30 MENTION FOR LBE, MGW AND DUJ FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE, CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE A TAF
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT, AS CONVECTION WANES.
OUTLOOK...
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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