879
FXUS61 KPBZ 070234
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1034 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, BUT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL HAS ENDED
2) DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING, WITH SATELLITE INDICATING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED DIMINISHING INSTABILITY,
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WHILE SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD ALSO NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WATER
ISSUES, WITH A PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AMONG ALL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO THE EAST EXHIBITS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS DOES THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE. LINGERING TROUGHING COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE QUICKER RIDGING COULD POINT TO 80S FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. EITHER WAY, A RETURN OF DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. RIDGING THEN MAY BREAK DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR SOME
SUMMERTIME-LIKE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY, COVERAGE SHOULDN'T BE
WIDESPREAD OR BRING A NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF PIT. INCLUDED THUNDER AT
AGC WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THESE SITES WILL SEE THUNDER
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCLUDED THUNDER FOR MOST SITES FROM
ZZV-HLG AND SOUTH.
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING, AND AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AFTER SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME FOG AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
AND RESTRICTION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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