017
FXUS61 KPBZ 291739
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY, AS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL HEAT IS
HIGH. FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REGION FROM TOMORROW
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS, IMPACTFUL HEAT.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
STILL FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING THE FIRST EXTENDED RUN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE
REGION OF THE SEASON. WHILE WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, THERE IS STILL A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SETTING NEW STANDARD FOR WARM MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT SEVERAL SITES. THE
ACTUAL HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 90S FORECAST. THE HIGHER-END
NUMBERS SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN URBAN AREAS, AND INSTANCES OF
TRIPLE-DIGIT READINGS CANNOT BE RULED IN A FEW VALLEYS AND
DOWNTOWN AREAS.
MODELED DEWPOINTS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN SOME CASES, AS DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TO
LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. VALUES MAY END UP IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD
70-73 READINGS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. THIS MAY KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM EXCEEDING 105 IN MORE THAN ISOLATED CASES, AND THUS
MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS, EVEN
ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. STILL, THERE IS DECENT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALUES BETWEEN 98 AND 105 EACH AFTERNOON
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE
VERY WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, TO ISSUE A LONG-TERM
HEAT ADVISORY RUNNING FROM MIDDAY TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ALL AREAS EXCLUDING THE RIDGES. WHILE NOT ALL AREAS IN THE
ADVISORY MAY TECHNICALLY REACH CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW, IT
IS BELIEVED THAT THE LONG PERIOD OF IMPACT, ALONG WITH THE
LIMITED COOLING POTENTIAL AT NIGHT, JUSTIFIES THIS WIDESPREAD
AND LONG- LASTING PRODUCT.
IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OUT OF 4) FOR TUESDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4)
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM AND/OR CLOUD COVER,
FRIDAY. A QUICK REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A COLOR-NUMERIC
BASED INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND CDC
HEAT-HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK
DOWN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, WHICH WOULD
MAKE THE ARRIVAL OF RIDGE-RUNNING SHORTWAVES, AND THUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MORE LIKELY. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RAISES
CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS THERE ARE
CERTAINLY PAST EXAMPLES OF HEAT WAVES ENDING WITH A ROUND OF
ROUGH WEATHER. LONGER-RANGE MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE AGREES
WITH THIS INCREASED THREAT, AS THEY INDICATE INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES (15-45% FOR THE MOST PART) STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO
REFINE THIS FORECAST AND THE DETAILS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VARYING DEGREES OF FOG COVERAGE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. FOG EXPANSION LIKELY ENDS HERE SHORTLY WITH THE
SUN RISING AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 14Z, WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 15Z. A SCT VFR STRATOCU
FIELD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT CAN RETURN AS ANOTHER VFR
STRATOCU FIELD ON TUESDAY AS WINDS RISE TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW.
OUTLOOK... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1934
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 96/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1901
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 75/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 98 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 97/1931
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 100/1898
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/CL
AVIATION...AK
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