362
FXUS61 KPBZ 191128
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
728 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CONFIDENCE IN A SOAKING RAINFALL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON; SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
1) MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CROSSING I-68 BY 08Z. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CURRENTLY MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEFORE
SUNRISE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST CONUS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS - GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING TODAY MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, WITH MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR ANY LIGHTNING
GENERATION. THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AN
AFTERNOON MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO
THE 0.9-1.0 INCH RANGE PER HREF/REFS. ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS MORE SUGGESTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAN TODAY.
STILL, WITH FAIRLY SKINNY AND MODEST CAPE PROFILES
(PROBABILITIES OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS),
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SATURDAY SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW RIDGING
INTO SUNDAY, SUGGESTING DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THEN, ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON RIDING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO
OUR REGION. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO THE 1.6 TO
1.8 INCH RANGE, PERHAPS INTO THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE LEVEL. THERE
REMAINS A BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE BROAD
CONSENSUS THAT A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY PERIOD.
CURRENT PROBABILITY OF ONE INCH OF RAIN IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 00Z TUESDAY RANGES FROM 70-85 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM OUTPUT. PROBABILITIES FOR 2
INCHES ARE NOTABLE AS WELL, REACHING 30 TO 50 PERCENT OVER A
GOOD AREA. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTPUT INDICATES SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH HIGHER RISKS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHERE
AVAILABLE BUOYANCY IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CUMULUS IN
THE 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT, BUT IMPACT
POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. ANY SUCH SHOWERS WOULD COLLAPSE BY SUNSET, WITH CONTINUED
VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WIND WILL REMAIN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTS, WHILE LESS ENERGETIC THAN YESTERDAY, SHOULD STILL
REACH THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE BY MIDDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, THOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MORE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL/LUPO
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