789
FXUS61 KPBZ 292341
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
641 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MOST IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE RIDGES. SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE
RIDGES NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS INTO THIS EVENING
- STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
---------------------------------------------------------------
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 980 MB HAS ENTERED QUEBEC AND
IS CONTINUING NORTHEAST. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE.
WINDS ENDED UP STRONGER THAN FORECAST TODAY WITH UP TO 9 MB 6
HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND 700 MB FLOW CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS
CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 62 MPH MEASURED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES HAVE
SUBSIDED WILL NOT UPGRADE AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG WITH HIGH WIND WARNING IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
CONVECTIVE SNOWS BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE CLEVELAND AREA AS
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST OFF LAKE ERIE. MODELS HAVE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER INCREASING RAPIDLY THROUGH 21-00Z SO EXPECT INTENSE
SNOW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN
THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO LOCALIZED POOR
VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. 1-2" ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-6" IN THE
RIDGES AND IN THE I-80 LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL HAPPEN BY MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS COULD BE
DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
- STRONGER SYSTEM LIKELY TO PROVIDE IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY
- CONTINUED COLD
----------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THIS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS A WSW COMPONENT
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY LAKE INFLUENCE. THUS, SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE PROJECTED TO BE LIGHT, TOTALING PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO IN SPOTS.
ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONT DROP IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW
YEARS DAY. RENEWED COLD ADVECTION AND WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD
LAKE AND UPSLOPE INFLUENCES. THERE MAY EVEN BE UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE, THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT FIRST- GUESS SNOW TOTALS WOULD HAVE 6-7
INCHES IN THE RIDGES FROM FAYETTE COUNTY ON SOUTH, AND 2-5
INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THESE TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW WOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH READINGS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- LESS ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
BY MONDAY.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY ATTEMPT TO
REACH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING
- MVFR CEILINGS
- SNOW SHOWERS/POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS COLD AND ACTIVE
------------------------------------------------------------
WIDESPREAD SNOW - HEAVIEST AT FKL/DUJ - IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AND PRODUCING GENERALLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AT AREA
TERMINALS. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT, WITH THE ONLY LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z TUESDAY BEING NORTH OF PIT AND IN THE
RIDGES. SHOWERS DO EVENTUALLY END OVER THE RIDGES TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT LAKE-EFFECT ACTIVITY LINGERS NORTH OF I-80
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, CEILING RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
TO HOVER AT MVFR/IFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MINOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-80.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALBEIT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS GUSTS TREND MORE TOWARDS 25-35 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND 20-30 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THURS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
UNDER UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD W-NW FLOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>022-029-031-073>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016-074-076-078.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ076.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>513.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ510>514.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...CRAVEN
NEAR TERM...CRAVEN
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...CERMAK
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