904
FXUS61 KPBZ 042243
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
643 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MONITOR
FROST POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD BE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FAVORS
NEAR-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST SUPPORTING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY, TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING GROWING SEASON, FROST WILL
BECOME A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FOREST, JEFFERSON (PA),
PRESTON, AND TUCKER COUNTIES, WHERE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND
WARM AIR COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER AND LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL MAY COME FROM
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEING
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AS LOW
CLOUDS EXIT EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A
STRATOCU LAYER AFFECTING FKL AND DUJ OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CIGS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, THE CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LAYER ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTY
NW WIND UP TO 20KT BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR AS WIND DIMINISHES LATE MONDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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