184
FXUS61 KPBZ 032343
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
743 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THIS EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPANDED HEAT HEADLINES FURTHER NORTHWARD FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
2) HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS, SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THE CAP
HAS ERODED ACROSS NW PA. ML CAPE RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG IN
THIS REGION AS WELL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD FIRE
ALONG OUTFLOWS AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO ERODE FURTHER SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY MID LEVEL AIR HAS
RESULTED IN DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, WHICH RESULTS IN A
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. A LESSER THREAT OF
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. ML CAPE IS PROGGED FROM 1500-2500 J/KG
BY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY MID LEVEL AIR AGAIN RESULTING IN A
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. MODELS ALSO INDICATE MORE OF A TRIGGER
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH THE INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH
WANING INSTABILITY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY, WITH THE APPROACH OF
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SE'WARD EACH DAY, WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY PROGGED TO THE EAST. SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH
BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY (ML CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG.) THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF CONVECTION ON PRIOR DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA, IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES, THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY OUTSIDE
OF THE EXPANDED EXTREME HEAT WARNING. EXPECT HEAT INDICES NEAR
100 IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DECREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES BY SUNDAY, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE WARM AND
HUMID.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PROBABILITY CONTINUES FOR VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP NEAR A TERMINAL, EXPECT RAPID
VSBY FALLS TOWARDS IFR WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AMID THE APPROACH/PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EACH DAY SEES INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAT ARE CAPABLE OF IFR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007-013-014-020-
022-077.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-029-
031-073-075.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ057>059-
068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ002>004-
012-021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...RACKLEY/LUPO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page