749
FXUS61 KPBZ 101751
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AND WILL WARRANT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A ZONAL MEAN
SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. MACHINE-LEARNING CONVECTIVE HAZARD GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE,
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THEN FAVOR A
PATTERN SHIFT LATE NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SETTING
UP OVER EASTERN CANADA (AND UPPER RIDGING OUT WEST). IF THAT
ENDS UP VERIFYING, IT COULD POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MIXING HAS MOSTLY ERODED THE LOW CIG RESTRICTIONS SAVE A FEW
LINGERING HIGH-END MVFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT BACK
TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 5-10 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REINVIGORATE SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 20Z PRIMARILY FOR PIT AND
SOUTH. MAINTAINED THE PROB30S FOR PIT AND SURROUNDING AREA
TERMINALS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DISORGANIZED SPATIAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP INCLUDING
TSRA MENTION IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO FUMES OF INSTABILITY. ANY
STORM THAT PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS.
A TRICKY FORECAST THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WIND, THOUGH A COUPLE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT COULD POSE
CHALLENGES. ONE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND BRING WITH IT LOWER DEW
POINTS AND ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT IT MAKES IT THROUGH FKL AND DUJ BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT IT
COULD REACH AS FAR AS PIT. ANOTHER IS WHETHER OR NOT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSES
THROUGH AND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ENHANCES LOCALIZED
LIFT. THE NBM AND GLAMP GUIDANCE ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH
AREAWIDE VIS RESTRICTIONS <1SM, BUT THE HREF 10TH PERCENTILE
BARELY PAINTS ANY FOG AT ALL, AND THE HREF HANDLED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE BEST. THINK THAT MGW IS LIKELY FIRST IN LINE FOR
BIGGEST DEGRADATION ESPECIALLY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS. ZZV TO PIT TO LBE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG
IF DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LESS PREVALENT. FKL AND DUJ
SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWER
DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO FOG COULD BE
MORE CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS.
ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL MIX OUT FRIDAY MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO A
DRY DAY WITH VFR RETURNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETURNS SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...MLB
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