989
FXUS61 KPBZ 241126
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO
---------------------------------------------------------------
A 594-596DM RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AT AROUND 20 DEG C.
SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALSO EXPECTED IN SSW
FLOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE
TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS, SHOULD RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES, WHERE THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIDGE, THOUGH SOME PASSING
DIURNAL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY, AND CONTINUE SATURDAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
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THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT, AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY, AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE SURFACE FRONT
IS ALSO PROGGED TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN PA/OH. ML
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AS PWATS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES.
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30KT, WITH INCREASED STORM
MOTION EXPECTED. IF TRAINING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE W-E ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WIND IN SOME STORMS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW ,
THOUGH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT DRY AIR ALOFT LATER IN
THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FRIDAY EVENING, AS MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED LIFT EXITS,
AND THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH.
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION, AND THE SURFACE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FRIDAY (1.6-1.8),
THOUGH SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR COULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL IN SOME OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE LIMITED TO AREAS
OF TRAINING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY MAXIMUMS CROSSING THE REGION,
AND AS THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE EXTENT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL STILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 90S, THOUGH THEY SHOULD
STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
- MAINLY DRY MONDAY
- OCCASIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
AS IT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR FROPA IN
INDIVIDUAL MODELS EXIST.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
OH/TN/MS VALLEY REGIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
HIGH ON MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE S-SW, AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THIS MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN, WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES CROSSING
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SW, UNTIL NW FLOW
BECOMES PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, WITH COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED JUST AFTER THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH TODAY
WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-6KFT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
PIT/AGC.
OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND RETURN ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING DAILY PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES PEAKING
EACH AFTERNOON.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ039-048-057-058-068.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/SHALLENBERGER
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