445
FXUS61 KPBZ 291904
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MOST
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES. COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WIND AND
RAIN
- TURNING SHARPLY COLDER TODAY
- SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON
- STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN,
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL OH. THE PARENT
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST PBZ 88-D
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, WITH 50KT AT
4KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL MIX DOWN WITH A
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS FROM 50-55MPH
POSSIBLE. STRONG PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW FROPA, AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/MIXING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS FROM 60-65 MPH, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG VORT MAX
CROSSES THE AREA ALONG THE LEADING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND SQUALLS
DEVELOPING. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE SOME CONNECTION FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LAKE ERIE, WHICH COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE THESE BANDS. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING,
THIS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WHERE THESE BANDS
OCCUR.
AN INCREASE IN LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO THE W - WNW. THE
MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BEGIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND IN THE RIDGES AS THIS OCCURS, THOUGH
BANDING/SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ELSEWHERE INTO THE
EVENING.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
- STRONGER SYSTEM LIKELY TO PROVIDE IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY
- CONTINUED COLD
----------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THIS CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS A WSW COMPONENT
THAT WILL LIMIT ANY LAKE INFLUENCE. THUS, SNOW TOTALS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE PROJECTED TO BE LIGHT, TOTALING PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO IN SPOTS.
ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD
FRONT DROP IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW
YEARS DAY. RENEWED COLD ADVECTION AND WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD
LAKE AND UPSLOPE INFLUENCES. THERE MAY EVEN BE UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY. ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE, THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT FIRST- GUESS SNOW TOTALS WOULD HAVE 6-7
INCHES IN THE RIDGES FROM FAYETTE COUNTY ON SOUTH, AND 2-5
INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THESE TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO
HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES, A WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR
THE RIDGE ZONES FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW WOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH READINGS
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- LESS ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
BY MONDAY.
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH READINGS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE MOST PART THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY ATTEMPT TO
REACH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING
- CEILINGS LOWERING BACK TO MVFR
- SNOW SHOWERS/POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
- PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS COLD AND ACTIVE FOLLOWING
MONDAY'S COLD FRONT
------------------------------------------------------------
A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL EXITING TO THE EAST BY
MID-MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT IS LEADING TO A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF CLEARING/VFR LOCALLY,
BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z
BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES. PERIODIC BURSTS
OF SNOW, INCLUDING POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS, MAY TEMPORARILY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CIGS AT AREA TERMINALS. FKL/DUJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PROLONGED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING AWAY FROM SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WED/THURS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
UNDER UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD W-NW FLOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>022-029-031-073>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
015-016-074-076-078.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ076.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>513.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ510>514.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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