994
FXUS61 KPBZ 290532
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
132 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE
EVENING. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT AS MOISTURE INCREASES, BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHERE JET-INDUCED
ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. MEAGER, THOUGH NOT ZERO,
MUCAPE DEPICTED BY EVEN THE LOW END OF THE ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO AID IN BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WITHIN A >90TH PERCENTILE PWAT ENVIRONMENT, BUT MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK POOR FOR MUCH MORE THAN VERY SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL. WILL GET SOME BETTER RESOLUTION WHEN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE ENCOMPASSES MONDAY NIGHT, BUT NBM
PROBABILITY FOR >1" OF RAIN IS LESS THAN 10% ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-80, SO FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE WARM
FRONT. SHOULD THE WARM FRONT PROVE TO BE SLOWER (CURRENTLY LOW
PROBABILITY), COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BLEED FARTHER
SOUTH IN THE EVENING.
WARM SECTOR RESIDENCE TIME ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PROVIDE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS VERY LIKELY TO REACH
THE 70S AREAWIDE. THE BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE TIMING OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND OUR NEXT SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLES STILL HAVEN'T RESOLVED TEMPORAL
INCONSISTENCY, BUT A EURO HEAVY CLUSTER NOW APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
NOTABLY PROGRESSIVE WITH PASSAGE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOST OTHERS, INCLUDING BOTH GFSAI AND ECMWFAI, LEAN TOWARD
A LATER PASSAGE IN THE MID-MORNING HOURS WITH AN OUTLIER ON THE
SLOWER SIDE (MID-AFTERNOON) DRIVEN BY THE GEFS. THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
WOULD BE LEAST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE AND FLOOD RISKS WHILE THE LATER
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AS USUAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR, IS NOT IN QUESTION WITH A 60-80% CHANCE OF >40 KNOTS, BUT
SUFFICIENT SBCAPE IS HIGHLY TIED TO A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. MACHINE
LEARNING HAS MAINTAINED ITS FOOTPRINT OF HIGHER PROBABILITY TO OUR
NORTHWEST, BUT WITH TIMING DISCREPANCY, WON'T BE SURPRISED IF THIS
AREA WIGGLES AROUND A BIT. COLUMN FLOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME
PARALLEL COMPONENT AS WELL, SO WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
ENSEMBLES INDICATING THE BOUNDARY SLOWING/STALLING TO OUR SOUTH
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. LONGER
RANGE RIVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT IF WE CAN MAXIMIZE ON OUR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AREAWIDE RISES WOULD BE LIKELY
WITH AT LEAST ACTION STAGE EXCEEDANCE FOR SOME POINTS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODS OF
MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IN
GRADUALLY FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW. DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW,
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES PROMOTING SOME SURFACE GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, WITH
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB
AVIATION...CL
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