475
FXUS61 KPBZ 111959
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2018
SYNOPSIS
EXCEPT FOR A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TONIGHT,
COLD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO HAVE RETREATED AS FAR NORTH AS IT IS
GOING TO, WITH MORE THAN 90% OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR.
MICHIGAN, LAKE ERIE, AND NEW YORK REMAIN OVERCAST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE HURON. THE LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE BOTH APPEAR TO BE WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM, AND
DID NOT GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS WITH ALL
COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW APPEAR POSSIBLE, GENERALLY NORTH OF I 80. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE,
WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLEARING EXPECTED TO HAPPEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL EACH BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE STORM SYSTEM TOGETHER A BIT LONGER BEFORE IT WEAKENS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF LIKELY POPS DOWN TO US 422, AND NOW HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF ONE OR
TWO LOCATIONS COME IN WITH SNOWFALLS OVER AN INCH, BUT THIS
SYSTEM WON'T BRING ANYTHING NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW.
SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT
WILL BE LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES,
THIS TIME FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DIDN'T MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGE TO
THE INHERITED POPS, BUT HAVE STUCK WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION
SHOWN BY THE SREF/GEFS COMPARED TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD BEGIN INITIALLY WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES, BUT THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY WILL FALL AS RAIN. TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND FREEZING, WHILE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE STILL IS NOT A LOT OF MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS
RAIN. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF DRIES OUT CONDITIONS, WHILE
THE GFS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW AROUND FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING INTO A LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN. ONCE
AGAIN, HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
AND FEW CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z FOR MOST SITES. FOR FKL/DUJ, A SNOW SHOWER
MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
CIG RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CLEAR WED UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE.
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS WED NIGHT/THU WITH ANOTHER
CROSSING TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH FRI/SAT
LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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