017
FXUS61 KPBZ 150605
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TODAY. ADDED A MENTION OF
THUNDER ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. A PORTION OF THE
AREA GENERALLY EAST OF I-79 HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
2) STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WIND. COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT COULD
SPREAD SOME SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 TODAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA,
THOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY IN EASTERLY FLOW.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, AS A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ADVANCE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT, RESULTING IN MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
A PORTION OF EASTERN OHIO WAS INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SEVERE STORMS UPSTREAM, AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW
FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH BEFORE WEAKENING. OVERALL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
APPEARS LIMITED, WITH THE INSTABILITY BECOMING ELEVATED BY THE
TIME STORMS ARRIVE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
45-55KT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL UNTIL THE
STORMS BECOME ELEVATED TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING,
AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SLOWER FROPA TIMING,
ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BUILD WITH SOME HEATING EARLY IN THE
DAY TO RESULT IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF
I-79 IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THE FRONT CROSSES. WITH A STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE ALOFT, ANY
STRONGER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD MIX THIS WIND DOWN TO THE
SURFACE (WIND AT 10 KFT IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 KT.)
AFTER FROPA, COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WIND FROM 30-40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS (GREATER THAN 45MPH), AND
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 5 PERCENT TO AS MUCH AS 35 PERCENT ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT STILL APPEARS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS THE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL, THE LESS AGGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES, WHICH COULD LIMIT GUSTS
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OCCURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, WITH WIND PRECLUDING A FROST POTENTIAL.
WIND SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. RISING 500MB HEIGHT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH SOME
PATCHY EROSION HAS OCCURRED IN DRY ADVECTION ON NRLY FLOW.
EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THESE CIGS AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERS TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE
REGION.
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LOW MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR, IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES, AND
SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A CROSSING
LOW LEVEL JET. THIS JET SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A LLWS POTENTIAL
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY W WIND FROM 30-40KT.
HIGHER GUSTS FROM 45-50KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AIRPORTS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER SUBSEQUENT
UPPER TROUGHING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WIND WILL ALSO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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