916
FXUS61 KPBZ 020637
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
237 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS A
BETTER ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO THE 00Z MODEL UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AS
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SET UP A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE AS HI-
RES MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE NOT HANDLING THE SETUP VERY WELL
IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
THERE STANDS TO BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE MORNING JUST AFTER
DAWN BUT THE HI-RES CAMS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SAME CASE GOES FOR CONVECTION LATER IN THE
DAY. SOME RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWED NOTHING ALL DAY AND SOME
SHOW STRONG CONVECTION CROSSING THE NORTH. THE CONSENSUS DOES
THROW SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY THE
21Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME DEPENDING ON WHAT RUN ON WHAT MODEL SHOWS
IT. WINDS REMAINS A THREAT BUT THE HAIL RISK INCREASES AS WELL
AS A SMALL TORNADO CHANCE.
THE NEXT THREAT FALLS INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO SAG
SOUTH AND BRINGING MORE THE CWA INTO THE STORM TRACK/MAIN FLOW.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND SOME SHEAR REMAINING WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE CONVECTION. TIMING A COUPLE DAYS OUT PUTS
THE THREAT DURING THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTH, THE VERY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A 500MB RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL HELP BRING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HEAT SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER
90S TO 100 WEDNESDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR EASTERN
OHIO, MOST OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA FOR
AREAS THAT ARE LIKELY TO REACH HEAT INDICES OF 100F.
HEAT IS FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE 500MB RIDGE
WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL BRING CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH COULD INHIBIT
DAYTIME HEATING. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN IN THAT REGARD SO THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY THOUGH, LEAVING OUT MORE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT SOME PATCHY SPOT OF FOG OVERNIGHT THAT MAY IMPACT A
TERMINAL OR TWO. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY THE EVENING. THUS, MAINLY A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS AND FLIGHT
CONDITIONS STANDS TO BE FKL, DUJ, AND LBE. THIS WILL BE WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS AND BELOW WILL BE EXPECTED IN THE 00Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME. SOME IMPACTS TO PIT AND MGW ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL; WINDS UP TO 10
KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
COULD CREATE SHORT PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEK WHERE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. DUE TO DIFFICULTIES MODELING
THESE FEATURES, TIMING/COVERAGE OF STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE
DIFFICULT UNTIL 6-12 HOURS BEFORE ARRIVAL AND CAUSE LARGER-
THAN-NORMAL FLUCTUATIONS IN TAF STORM TIMING. ADDITIONALLY,
STORM ENVIRONMENTS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS PLUS
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO RESTRICTION
DEVELOPMENT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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