237
FXUS61 KPBZ 301710
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IT LOOKED LIKE CLOUD COVER WOULD BE A TAD SLOWER TONIGHT SO
INCLUDED THE REST OF THE PA COUNTIES IN THE FROST ADVISORY AS
WELL AS MONONGALIA AND MARION IN WV.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SOME FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) GENERALLY WET PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAIN STORY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COLD ADVECTION
AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR/NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES, WHERE CHANCES FOR 37F OR BELOW
RANGE FROM 70-100%. EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE
FREEZING CONDITIONS (60% CHANCE). IN ADDITION, TIMING THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT, THE EXITING HIGH WILL BE A TAD SLOWER AND WILL
IMPEDE THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER. SO DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE
REST OF THE PA COUNTIES IN THE FROST ADVISORY AS WELL AS
MONONGALIA AND MARION COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FRIDAY MAY MAKE FROST DEVELOPMENT MORE
DIFFICULT FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, BUT CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR INTO
THE LOWER 30S. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN
FOR THAT REGION.
CLEARING SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP AREAWIDE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY UPPER
20S NORTH OF I-80 (25-30% CHANCE). FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE, BUT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND CROSSING SURFACE LOWS WILL KEEP
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. MACHINE LEARNING DOES BROADLY
HIGHLIGHT THE REGION FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY PERIOD DO MENTION 5% RISK AS WELL FOR SEVERE.
MONDAY ONLY CONSISTS OF OHIO AND TUESDAY ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON CIGS DEPARTING AFTER 18Z. THEY
COULD STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE TIL 20Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. THE
OTHER MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WOULD BE WHEN AND IF FOG DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT? AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WOULD BE FKL AND
MAYBE DUJ. HOWEVER, THAT IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE, SO OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
VFR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH BASED STRATOCU. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY GENERATING SHOWERS
FROM ZZV FROM AROUND 12Z TO PIT TO AROUND 14Z AND LBE AROUND
15Z. ONCE THEY ARRIVE EXPECT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW WITH OFF AND ON
SHOWERS. AS OF NOW, CIGS AND VIS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY.
WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN FIVE KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ021-509>513.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MCMULLEN
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