693
FXUS61 KPBZ 161801
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED ACROSS ALL THE RIDGES AND
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS SNOW AMOUNTS TREND
UPWARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCH
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
2) MILDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY PLUMMETING BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND -10 DEG C BY THIS EVENING. A
SECONDARY WAVE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM,
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.0 IN/HR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 6-10PM THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS, PRODUCING AT LEAST A
COATING IN MOST PLACES. THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE THOUGH ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, AND
TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS IN WRLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER ALSO MAXES OUT AROUND 6-7 UNITS TUESDAY MORNING,
INDICATING WE COULD SEE SQUALLS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE WOULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS OF SNOW
TOTALS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TRENDED UP AGAIN WITH THE 12Z CYCLE, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW REACHING 75 PERCENT
OR GREATER ACROSS NORTHERN WV, AND WRN PA. THOSE PROBABILITIES
DECREASE FARTHER WEST. INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR THE SAME AREA
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES, AND IT IS EXPECTED SOME MAY SEE
A LOCALIZED 3+ INCHES UNDER SNOW BANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST THREE INCHES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES. WITH UPWARD TRENDS AND BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN EARLIER ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING, HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ALL OF THE RIDGES
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY, WV, WHERE RIDGETOPS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY 25 TO 30
DEG ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT,
GRADUALLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC, MAINLY RAIN, CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR INFILTRATES THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND BELOW AS THE
EVENING GOES ON WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS DROPPING BELOW 1 KFT
IN SOME TERMINALS.
INTERMITTENT CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE TIMES WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
BECOMING MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HEADING INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW, SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT WILL DROP CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE W TO WNW WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...DRY AND MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BUT THE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT INTO UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES AND PERHAPS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY FALL AS RAIN
IF IT DOES OCCUR.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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